The role of declining summer sea ice extent in increasing Arctic winter precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamman, J.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Nijssen, B.
2016-12-01
In the past three decades, the Arctic has experienced large declines in summer sea ice cover, permafrost extent, and spring snow cover, and increases in winter precipitation. This study explores the relationship between declining Arctic sea ice extent (IE) and winter precipitation (WP) across the Arctic land masses. The first part of this presentation presents the observed relationship between IE and WP. Using satellite estimates of IE and WP data based on a combination of in-situ observations and global reanalyses, we show that WP is negatively correlated with summer IE and that this relationship is strongest before the year 2000. After 2000, around the time IE minima began to decline most rapidly, the relationship between IE and WP degenerates. This indicates that other processes are driving changes in IE and WP. We hypothesize that positive anomalies in poleward moisture transport have historically driven anomalously low IE and high WP, and that since the significant decline in IE, moisture divergence from the central Arctic has been a larger contributor to WP over land. To better understand the physical mechanisms driving the observed changes in the Arctic climate system and the sensitivity of the Arctic climate system to declining sea ice, we have used the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to simulate two distinct sea ice climates. The first climate represents normal IE, while the second includes reduced summer IE. The second portion of this presentation analyzes these two RASM simulations, in conjunction with our observation-based analysis, to understand the coupled relationship between poleward moisture transport, IE, evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, and precipitation. We will present the RASM-simulated Arctic water budget and demonstrate the role of IE in driving WP anomalies. Finally, a spatial correlation analysis identifies characteristic patterns in IE, ocean evaporation, and polar cap convergence that contribute to anomalies in WP.
Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa
Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Sillmann, Jana; Samset, Bjørn H.
2016-01-01
Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. Here we show that local black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions from biomass burning activities are a main cause of the observed decline in southern African dry season precipitation over the last century. Near the main biomass burning regions, global and regional modelling indicates precipitation decreases of 20–30%, with large spatial variability. Increasing global CO2 concentrations further contribute to precipitation reductions, somewhat less in magnitude but covering a larger area. Whereas precipitation changes from increased CO2 are driven by large-scale circulation changes, the increase in biomass burning aerosols causes local drying of the atmosphere. This study illustrates that reducing local biomass burning aerosol emissions may be a useful way to mitigate reduced rainfall in the region. PMID:27068129
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackler, D. A.; Jahn, J. M.; Perez, J. D.; Pollock, C. J.
2014-12-01
Plasma sheet particles with sufficiently low mirror points will interact with thermospheric neutrals through charge exchange. The resulting ENAs are no longer magnetically bound and can therefore be detected by remote platforms outside the ionosphere/lower atmosphere. These ENAs closely associated with ion precipitation are termed Low Altitude Emissions (LAEs). They are non-isotropic in velocity space and mimic the corresponding ion pitch angle distribution. In this study we present a statistical correlation between remote observations of the LAE emission characteristics and ion precipitation maps determined in situ over the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2000-2005). We discuss the strength and derived location (MLT, iMLAT) of LAEs as a function of geomagnetic activity levels in relation to the simultaneously measured strength, location, and spectral characteristics of in situ ion precipitation. These comparisons may allow us to use ENA images to assess where and how much energy is deposited during any type of enhanced geomagnetic activity. The precipitating ion differential directional flux maps are built up from combining NOAA-14/15/16 TED and DMSP-13/14/15 SSJ4 data. Low altitude ENA source locations are identified algorithmically using IMAGE/MENA images. ENA flux maps are derived by computing the LAE source locations assuming an ENA emission altitude (h) of 650 km, then projecting each image pixel onto a sphere with radius Re+h to determine the local time and latitude extent of the ENA source. The IGRF magnetic field model is used in combination with the Solar Magnetic coordinates of LAE pixels to compute the pitch angle of the escaping neutrals (previously ion before charge exchanging). Pitch angles larger than 90° will have a mirror point further into the atmosphere than the assumed emission altitude.
Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hilker, Thomas; Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal; Waring, Richard H.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie
2014-01-01
The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.
Observation-Corrected Precipitation Estimates in GEOS-5
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Qing
2014-01-01
Several GEOS-5 applications, including the GEOS-5 seasonal forecasting system and the MERRA-Land data product, rely on global precipitation data that have been corrected with satellite and or gauge-based precipitation observations. This document describes the methodology used to generate the corrected precipitation estimates and their use in GEOS-5 applications. The corrected precipitation estimates are derived by disaggregating publicly available, observationally based, global precipitation products from daily or pentad totals to hourly accumulations using background precipitation estimates from the GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system. Depending on the specific combination of the observational precipitation product and the GEOS-5 background estimates, the observational product may also be downscaled in space. The resulting corrected precipitation data product is at the finer temporal and spatial resolution of the GEOS-5 background and matches the observed precipitation at the coarser scale of the observational product, separately for each day (or pentad) and each grid cell.
Satellite observed widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing.
Hilker, Thomas; Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal; Waring, Richard H; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie
2014-02-01
The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70% of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or over-grazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12% on average) in MODIS observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40% below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80% of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30% of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50% in areas with denser vegetation cover (P < 0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r(2) = 0.10, P < 0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades.
McCleery, Robert A; Sovie, Adia; Reed, Robert N; Cunningham, Mark W; Hunter, Margaret E; Hart, Kristen M
2015-04-22
To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades
McCleery, Robert A.; Sovie, Adia; Reed, Robert N.; Cunningham, Mark W.; Hunter, Margaret E.; Hart, Kristen M.
2015-01-01
To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range. PMID:25788598
Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades
McCleery, Robert A.; Sovie, Adia; Reed, Robert N.; Cunningham, Mark W.; Hunter, Margaret E.; Hart, Kristen M.
2015-01-01
To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, Jianping; Su, Tianning; Li, Zhanqing; Miao, Yucong; Li, Jing; Liu, Huan; Xu, Hui; Cribb, Maureen; Zhai, Panmao
2017-06-01
Summer precipitation plays critical roles in the energy balance and the availability of fresh water over eastern China. However, little is known regarding the trend in local-scale precipitation (LSP). Here we developed a novel method to determine LSP events in the summer afternoon throughout eastern China from 1970 to 2010 based on hourly gauge measurements. The LSP occurrence hours decrease at an annual rate of 0.25%, which varies considerably by region, ranging from 0.14% over the Yangtze River Delta to 0.56% over the Pearl River Delta. This declining frequency of LSP is generally accompanied by an increase in rain rate of LSP but a decrease in visibility, whose linkage to LSP events was investigated. In particular, more LSP events tended to form when the atmosphere was slightly polluted. Afterward, LSP was suppressed. These findings have important implications for improving our understanding of the climatology of daytime precipitation at local scales.
Precipitation information from GNSS Polarimetric Radio Occultation observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Padulles, R.; Cardellach, E.; Turk, J.; Tomás, S.; Ao, C. O.; de la Torre-Juárez, M.
2017-12-01
There is currently a gap in satellite observations of the moisture structure during heavy precipitation conditions, since infrared and microwave sounders cannot sense water vapor structure near the surface in the presence of intense precipitation. Conversely, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultations (RO) can profile the moisture structure with high precision and vertical resolution, but cannot directly indicate the presence of precipitation. Polarimetric RO (PRO) measurements have been proposed as a method to characterize heavy rain in GNSS RO, by measuring the polarimetric differential phase delay induced by large size hydrometeors. The PRO concept will be tested from space for the first time on board the Spanish PAZ satellite, planned for launch by the end of 2017. Therefore, for the first time ever, GNSS RO measurements will be taken at two polarizations, to exploit the potential capabilities of polarimetric RO for detecting and quantifying heavy precipitation events. If the concept is proved, PAZ will mean a new application of the GNSS Radio-Occultation observations, by providing coincident thermodynamic and precipitation information with high vertical resolution within regions with thick clouds. Before the launch, a series of studies have been performed in order to assess the retrieval of precipitation information from the polarimetric observations. These studies have been based on coincident observations from the COSMIC / FORMOSAT-3 RO satellite constellation, and TRMM and GPM missions. This massive collocation exercise allowed us to build a series of Look Up Tables that relate probabilistically the precipitation intensity to the polarimetric observables. Such studies needed a previous characterization of the polarimetric observable, since it contains contributions from the ionosphere and the emitting and receiving systems. For this purpose, complete end-to-end simulations have been performed, where information from the ionospheric state
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bowden, J.; Terando, A. J.; Misra, V.; Wootten, A.
2017-12-01
Small island nations are vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle because of their limited water resources. This risk to water security is likely even higher in sub-tropical regions where anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is expected to lead to a drier future (the so-called `dry-get-drier' pattern). However, high-resolution numerical modeling experiments have also shown an enhancement of existing orographically-influenced precipitation patterns on islands with steep topography, potentially mitigating subtropical drying on windward mountain sides. Here we explore the robustness of the near-term (25-45 years) subtropical precipitation decline (SPD) across two island groupings in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These islands, forming the boundary between the Greater and Lesser Antilles, significantly differ in size, topographic relief, and orientation to prevailing winds. Two 2-km horizontal resolution regional climate model simulations are used to downscale a total of three different GCMs under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Results indicate some possibility for modest increases in precipitation at the leading edge of the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, but consistent declines elsewhere. We conclude with a discussion of potential explanations for these patterns and the attendant risks to water security that subtropical small island nations could face as the climate warms.
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.
2016-12-01
Environmental phenomena are often first observed, and then explained or simulated quantitatively. The complexity and diversity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles to describe many processes make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes to first order manifest themselves in simple ways: the intensification of heavy precipitation is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and a variety of model predictions made decades ago, before robust evidence arose from observations. We here compare heavy precipitation changes over Europe and the contiguous United States across station series and gridded observations, theoretical considerations and multi-model ensembles of GCMs and RCMs. We demonstrate that the observed heavy precipitation intensification aggregated over large areas agrees remarkably well with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The observed changes in heavy precipitation are consistent yet somewhat larger than predicted by very coarse resolution GCMs in the 1980s and simulated by the newest generation of GCMs and RCMs. For instance the number of days with very heavy precipitation over Europe has increased by about 45% in observations (years 1981-2013 compared to 1951-1980) and by about 25% in the model average in both GCMs and RCMs, although with substantial spread across models and locations. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts. *Fischer, E.M., and R. Knutti, 2016, Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nature Climate Change, in press.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clilverd, Mark A.; Cobbett, Neil; Rodger, Craig J.; Brundell, James B.; Denton, Michael H.; Hartley, David P.; Rodriguez, Juan V.; Danskin, Donald; Raita, Tero; Spanswick, Emma L.
2013-11-01
from two autonomous VLF radio receiver systems installed in a remote region of the Antarctic in 2012 is used to take advantage of the juxtaposition of the L = 4.6 contour, and the Hawaii-Halley, Antarctica, great circle path as it passes over thick Antarctic ice shelf. The ice sheet conductivity leads to high sensitivity to changing D region conditions, and the quasi constant L shell highlights outer radiation belt processes. The ground-based instruments observed several energetic electron precipitation events over a moderately active 24 h period, during which the outer radiation belt electron flux declined at most energies and subsequently recovered. Combining the ground-based data with low and geosynchronous orbiting satellite observations on 27 February 2012, different driving mechanisms were observed for three precipitation events with clear signatures in phase space density and electron anisotropy. Comparison between flux measurements made by Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) in low Earth orbit and by the Antarctic instrumentation provides evidence of different cases of weak and strong diffusion into the bounce loss cone, helping to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the precipitation of energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Strong diffusion events occurred as the <600 keV fluxes began to recover as a result of adiabatic transport of electrons. One event appeared to have a factor of about 10 to 100 times more flux than was reported by POES, consistent with weak diffusion into the bounce loss cone. Two events had a factor of about 3 to 10 times more >30 keV flux than was reported by POES, more consistent with strong diffusion conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.
2017-12-01
Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a
Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.
2016-12-01
As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.
Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.
2012-04-01
Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.
Representativeness of four precipitation observational networks of China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Yuyu; Ren, Guoyu
2012-08-01
Four precipitation observational networks with varied station densities are maintained in China. They are: the Global Climate Observation System (GCOS) Surface Network (GSN), the national Reference Climate Network (RCN), the national Basic Meteorological Network (BMN), and the national Ordinary Meteorological Network (OMN). The GSN, RCN, BMN, and the merged network of RCN and BMN (R&B) have been widely used in climatology and climate change studies. In this paper, the impact of the usage of different networks on the precipitation climatology of China is evaluated by using the merged dataset of All Station Network (ASN) as a benchmark. The results show that all networks can capture the main features of the country average precipitation and its changing trends. The differences of average annual precipitation of the various networks from that of the ASN are less than 50 mm (⩽ 10%). All networks can successfully detect the rising trend of the average annual precipitation during 1961-2009, with the R&B exhibiting the best representativeness (only 2.90% relative difference) and the GSN the poorest (39.77%). As to the change trends of country average monthly precipitation, the networks can be ranked in descending order as R&B (1.27%), RCN (2.35%), BMN (4.17%), and GSN (7.46%), and larger relative differences appear from August to November. The networks produce quite consistent spatial patterns of annual precipitation change trends, and all show an increasing trend of precipitation in Northwest and Southeast China, and a decreasing trend in North China, Northeast China, and parts of central China. However, the representativeness of the BMN and R&B are better in annual and seasonal precipitation trends, in spite of the fact that they are still far from satisfactory. The relative differences of trends in some months and regions even reach more than 50%. The results also show that the representativeness of the RCN for country average precipitation is higher than that of the
Status of High Latitude Precipitation Estimates from Observations and Reanalyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Behrangi, Ali; Christensen, Matthew; Richardson, Mark; Lebsock, Matthew; Stephens, Graeme; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert F.; Gardner, Alex; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.;
2016-01-01
An intercomparison of high-latitude precipitation characteristics from observation-based and reanalysis products is performed. In particular, the precipitation products from CloudSat provide an independent assessment to other widely used products, these being the observationally based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) products and the ERA-Interim, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-DOE R2) reanalyses. Seasonal and annual total precipitation in both hemispheres poleward of 55 latitude are considered in all products, and CloudSat is used to assess intensity and frequency of precipitation occurrence by phase, defined as rain, snow, or mixed phase. Furthermore, an independent estimate of snow accumulation during the cold season was calculated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. The intercomparison is performed for the 20072010 period when CloudSat was fully operational. It is found that ERA-Interim and MERRA are broadly similar, agreeing more closely with CloudSat over oceans. ERA-Interim also agrees well with CloudSat estimates of snowfall over Antarctica where total snowfall from GPCP and CloudSat is almost identical. A number of disagreements on regional or seasonal scales are identified: CMAP reports much lower ocean precipitation relative to other products, NCEP-DOE R2 reports much higher summer precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land, GPCP reports much higher snowfall over Eurasia, and CloudSat overestimates precipitation over Greenland, likely due to mischaracterization of rain and mixed-phase precipitation. These outliers are likely unrealistic for these specific regions and time periods. These estimates from observations and reanalyses provide useful insights for diagnostic assessment of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kucera, P. A.; Steinson, M.
2016-12-01
Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of precipitation and surface weather conditions in general is critical for a variety of research studies and applications. Surface precipitation observations provide important reference information for evaluating satellite (e.g., GPM) precipitation estimates. High quality surface observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and winds are important for applications such as agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and hazardous weather early warning systems. In many regions of the World, surface weather station and precipitation gauge networks are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation including tipping bucket and weighing-type precipitation gauges in sparsely observed regions of the world. The goal is to improve the number of observations (temporally and spatially) for the evaluation of satellite precipitation estimates in data-sparse regions and to improve the quality of applications for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. One important aspect of this initiative is to make the data open to the community. The weather station instrumentation have been developed using innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. An initial pilot project have been implemented in the country of Zambia. This effort could be expanded to other data sparse regions around the globe. The presentation will provide an overview and demonstration of 3D printed weather station development and initial evaluation of observed
High-resolution in situ observations of electron precipitation-causing EMIC waves
Rodger, Craig J.; Hendry, Aaron T.; Clilverd, Mark A.; ...
2015-11-21
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are thought to be important drivers of energetic electron losses from the outer radiation belt through precipitation into the atmosphere. While the theoretical possibility of pitch angle scattering-driven losses from these waves has been recognized for more than four decades, there have been limited experimental precipitation observations to support this concept. We have combined satellite-based observations of the characteristics of EMIC waves, with satellite and ground-based observations of the EMIC-induced electron precipitation. In a detailed case study, supplemented by an additional four examples, we are able to constrain for the first time the location, size,more » and energy range of EMIC-induced electron precipitation inferred from coincident precipitation data and relate them to the EMIC wave frequency, wave power, and ion band of the wave as measured in situ by the Van Allen Probes. As a result, these observations will better constrain modeling into the importance of EMIC wave-particle interactions.« less
Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno
This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.
Microwave Observations of Precipitation and the Atmosphere
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Staelin, David H.; Rosenkranz, Philip W.
2004-01-01
This research effort had three elements devoted to improving satellite-derived passive microwave retrievals of precipitation rate: morphological rain-rate retrievals, warm rain retrievals, and extension of a study of geostationary satellite options. The morphological precipitation-rate retrieval method uses for the first time the morphological character of the observed storm microwave spectra. The basic concept involves: 1) retrieval of point rainfall rates using current algorithms, 2) using spatial feature vectors of the observations over segmented multi-pixel storms to estimate the integrated rainfall rate for that storm (cu m/s), and 3) normalization of the point rain-rate retrievals to ensure consistency with the storm-wide retrieval. This work is ongoing, but two key steps have been completed: development of a segmentation algorithm for defining spatial regions corresponding to single storms for purposes of estimation, and reduction of some of the data from NAST-M that will be used to support this research going forward. The warm rain retrieval method involved extension of Aquai/AIRS/AMSU/HSB algorithmic work on cloud water retrievals. The central concept involves the fact that passive microwave cloud water retrievals over approx. 0.4 mm are very likely associated with precipitation. Since glaciated precipitation is generally detected quite successfully using scattering signatures evident in the surface-blind 54- and 183-GHz bands, this new method complements the first by permitting precipitation retrievals of non-glaciated events. The method is most successful over ocean, but has detected non-glaciated convective cells over land, perhaps in their early formative stages. This work will require additional exploration and validation prior to publication. Passive microwave instrument configurations for use in geostationary orbit were studied. They employ parabolic reflectors between 2 and 4 meters in diameter, and frequencies up to approx.430 GHz; this
EMIC Waves Observed in Conjunction with BARREL Electron Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weaver, C.; Engebretson, M. J.; Lessard, M.; Halford, A. J.; Millan, R. M.; Horne, R. B.; Singer, H. J.
2013-05-01
Electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves have been detected at Halley, Antarctica coinciding with observations of electron precipitation on high altitude balloons from the Balloon Array for RBSP Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) campaign launched in early 2013 from SANAE IV and Halley Station. The balloons were launched such that both spatial and temporal properties of electron precipitation might be examined. With a magnetic foot point mapped to the radiation belts, Halley is an ideal location to capture ground based signatures that coincide with electron precipitation. EMIC waves have been shown, both theoretically and through statistical surveys, to pitch angle scatter energetic protons and relativistic electrons via cyclotron resonance and contribute to radiation belt dynamics. EMIC waves were detected at Halley Station 23 times from 12 Jan - 4 Feb with 17 of those waves occurring during times when at least one BARREL balloon observed precipitation in one or more energy channels. High resolution magnetometer data from GOES 13 (which has a magnetic foot point near WAIS Divide, Antarctica-located about 2.5 hours, in MLT, west of Halley) show similar EMIC wave structure and frequency to 9 waves observed at Halley, suggesting the source region extended to at least the longitude and L value of GOES 13 during some events. The ground observed waves appeared in all local times and during both quiet and disturbed intervals.
A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations
Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.
2015-01-01
Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Vázquez, Marta; Gimeno, Luis
2018-05-01
In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.
Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herold, Nicholas; Behrangi, Ali; Alexander, Lisa V.
2017-01-01
We explore uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over the terrestrial tropics and subtropics (50°S-50°N) based on five commonly used products: the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre-Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite research product (T3B42 v7), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's One-Degree Daily (GPCP-1DD) dataset. We use the precipitation indices R10mm and Rx1day, developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to explore the behavior of "moderate" and "extreme" extremes, respectively. In order to assess the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to different grid sizes we perform our calculations on four common spatial resolutions (0.25° × 0.25°, 1° × 1°, 2.5° × 2.5°, and 3.75° × 2.5°). The impact of the chosen "order of operation" in calculating these indices is also determined. Our results show that moderate extremes are relatively insensitive to product and resolution choice, while extreme extremes can be very sensitive. For example, at 0.25° × 0.25° quasi-global mean Rx1day values vary from 37 mm in PERSIANN-CDR to 62 mm in T3B42. We find that the interproduct spread becomes prominent at resolutions of 1° × 1° and finer, thus establishing a minimum effective resolution at which observational products agree. Without improvements in interproduct spread, these exceedingly large observational uncertainties at high spatial resolution may limit the usefulness of model evaluations. As has been found previously, resolution sensitivity can be largely eliminated by applying an order of operation where indices are calculated prior to regridding. However, this approach is not appropriate when true area averages are desired
Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kharuk, V. I.; Im, S. T.; Oskorbin, P. A.; Petrov, I. A.; Ranson, K. J.
2013-01-01
The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.
Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.
2017-10-01
The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.
The role of proton precipitation in Jovian aurora: Theory and observation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Waite, J. H., Jr.; Curran, D. B.; Cravens, T. E.; Clarke, J. T.
1992-01-01
It was proposed that the Jovian auroral emissions observed by Voyager spacecraft could be explained by energetic protons precipitating into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. Such precipitation of energetic protons results in Doppler-shifted Lyman alpha emission that can be quantitatively analyzed to determine the energy flux and energy distribution of the incoming particle beam. Modeling of the expected emission from a reasonably chosen Voyager energetic proton spectrum can be used in conjunction with International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) observations, which show a relative lack of red-shifted Lyman alpha emission, to set upper limits on the amount of proton precipitation taking place in the Jovian aurora. Such calculations indicate that less than 10 percent of the ultraviolet auroral emissions at Jupiter can be explained by proton precipitation.
Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Morrissey, Mark M.; Curtis, Scott; Joyce, Robert; McGavock, Brad; Susskind, Joel
2000-01-01
The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.
Variability of Radiosonde-Observed Precipitable Water in the Baltic Region
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jakobson, Erko; Ohvril, H.; Okulov, O.
The total mass of columnar water vapor (precipitable water, W) is an important parameter of atmospheric thermodynamic and radiative models. In this work radiosonde observations from 17 aerological stations in the Baltic region during 14 years, 1989?2002, were used to examine the variability of precipitable water. A table of monthly and annual means of W for the stations is given. Seasonal and annual means of W are expressed as linear functions of geographical latitude. Linear formulas are also derived for parameterization of precipitable water as function of surface water vapor pressure at each station.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodger, Craig J.; Kavanagh, Andrew J.; Clilverd, Mark A.; Marple, Steve R.
2013-12-01
electron precipitation (EEP) impacts the chemistry of the middle atmosphere with growing evidence of coupling to surface temperatures at high latitudes. To better understand this link, it is essential to have realistic observations to properly characterize precipitation and which can be incorporated into chemistry-climate models. The Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) detectors measure precipitating particles but only integral fluxes and only in a fraction of the bounce loss cone. Ground-based riometers respond to precipitation from the whole bounce loss cone; they measure the cosmic radio noise absorption (CNA), a qualitative proxy with scant direct information on the energy flux of EEP. POES observations should have a direct relationship with ΔCNA and comparing the two will clarify their utility in studies of atmospheric change. We determined ionospheric changes produced by the EEP measured by the POES spacecraft in ~250 overpasses of an imaging riometer in northern Finland. The ΔCNA modeled from the POES data is 10-15 times less than the observed ΔCNA when the >30 keV flux is reported as <106 cm-2 s-1 sr-1. Above this level, there is relatively good agreement between the space-based and ground-based measurements. The discrepancy occurs mostly during periods of low geomagnetic activity, and we contend that weak diffusion is dominating the pitch angle scattering into the bounce loss cone at these times. A correction to the calculation using measurements of the trapped flux considerably reduces the discrepancy and provides further support to our hypothesis that weak diffusion leads to underestimates of the EEP.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abbasnezhadi, K.; Rasmussen, P. F.; Stadnyk, T.
2014-12-01
To gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall over the Churchill River basin, this study was undertaken. The research incorporates gridded precipitation data from the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. CaPA has been developed by Environment Canada and provides near real-time precipitation estimates on a 10 km by 10 km grid over North America at a temporal resolution of 6 hours. The spatial fields are generated by combining forecasts from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with precipitation observations from the network of synoptic weather stations. CaPA's skill is highly influenced by the number of weather stations in the region of interest as well as by the quality of the observations. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of CaPA as a function of the density of the weather station network, a dual-stage design algorithm to simulate CaPA is proposed which incorporates generated weather fields. More specifically, we are adopting a controlled design algorithm which is generally known as Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The advantage of using the experiment is that one can define reference precipitation fields assumed to represent the true state of rainfall over the region of interest. In the first stage of the defined OSSE, a coupled stochastic model of precipitation and temperature gridded fields is calibrated and validated. The performance of the generator is then validated by comparing model statistics with observed statistics and by using the generated samples as input to the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model. In the second stage of the experiment, in order to account for the systematic error of station observations and GEM fields, representative errors are to be added to the reference field using by-products of CaPA's variographic analysis. These by-products explain the variance of station observations and background errors.
Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas
2017-01-01
Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.
Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis
Gobiet, Andreas
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan‐European data sets and a set that combines eight very high‐resolution station‐based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post‐processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small‐scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate‐mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments. PMID:28111497
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lien, Guo-Yuan; Kalnay, Eugenia; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Huffman, George J.
2016-01-01
Assimilation of satellite precipitation data into numerical models presents several difficulties, with two of the most important being the non-Gaussian error distributions associated with precipitation, and large model and observation errors. As a result, improving the model forecast beyond a few hours by assimilating precipitation has been found to be difficult. To identify the challenges and propose practical solutions to assimilation of precipitation, statistics are calculated for global precipitation in a low-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The samples are constructed using the same model with the same forecast period, observation variables, and resolution as in the follow-on GFSTMPA precipitation assimilation experiments presented in the companion paper.The statistical results indicate that the T62 and T126 GFS models generally have positive bias in precipitation compared to the TMPA observations, and that the simulation of the marine stratocumulus precipitation is not realistic in the T62 GFS model. It is necessary to apply to precipitation either the commonly used logarithm transformation or the newly proposed Gaussian transformation to obtain a better relationship between the model and observational precipitation. When the Gaussian transformations are separately applied to the model and observational precipitation, they serve as a bias correction that corrects the amplitude-dependent biases. In addition, using a spatially andor temporally averaged precipitation variable, such as the 6-h accumulated precipitation, should be advantageous for precipitation assimilation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Young, C. B.
2002-05-01
Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.
Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis
1994-03-24
terrorist group. The author assumes terrorsst groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to va~lue organiwaionwsl survival over...ideological or programmatir achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline... social orgainizations. eventually come to value organizational su~rvival over ideological or progcinmrnatic achievements. 20 Distribution/Availability
Observed surface wind speed declining induced by urbanization in East China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Zhengquan; Song, Lili; Ma, Hao; Xiao, Jingjing; Wang, Kuo; Chen, Lian
2018-02-01
Monthly wind data from 506 meteorological stations and ERA-Interim reanalysis during 1991-2015, are used to examine the surface wind trend over East China. Furthermore, combining the urbanization information derived from the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data during 1992-2013, the effects of urbanization on surface wind change are investigated by applying the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. The results show that the observed surface wind speed over East China is distinctly weakening with a rate of -0.16 m s-1 deca-1 during 1991-2015, while ERA-Interim wind speed does not have significant decreasing or increasing trend in the same period. The observed surface wind declining is mainly attributed to underlying surface changes of stations observational areas that were mostly induced by the urbanization in East China. Moreover, the wind declining intensity is closely related to the urbanization rhythms. The OMR annual surface wind speeds of Rhythm-VS, Rhythm-S, Rhythm-M, Rhythm-F and Rhythm-VF, have decreasing trends with the rates of -0.02 to -0.09, -0.16 to -0.26, -0.22 to -0.30, -0.26 to -0.36 and -0.33 to -0.51 m s-1 deca-1, respectively. The faster urbanization rhythm is, the stronger wind speed weakening presents. Additionally urban expansion is another factor resulted in the observed surface wind declining.
Miyoshi, Y.; Oyama, S.; Saito, S.; ...
2015-04-21
Pulsating auroras show quasi-periodic intensity modulations caused by the precipitation of energetic electrons of the order of tens of keV. It is expected theoretically that not only these electrons but also subrelativistic/relativistic electrons precipitate simultaneously into the ionosphere owing to whistler mode wave-particle interactions. The height-resolved electron density profile was observed with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) Tromsø VHF radar on 17 November 2012. Electron density enhancements were clearly identified at altitudes >68 km in association with the pulsating aurora, suggesting precipitation of electrons with a broadband energy range from ~10 keV up to at least 200 keV. The riometermore » and network of subionospheric radio wave observations also showed the energetic electron precipitations during this period. During this period, the footprint of the Van Allen Probe-A satellite was very close to Tromsø and the satellite observed rising tone emissions of the lower band chorus (LBC) waves near the equatorial plane. Considering the observed LBC waves and electrons, we conducted a computer simulation of the wave-particle interactions. This showed simultaneous precipitation of electrons at both tens of keV and a few hundred keV, which is consistent with the energy spectrum estimated by the inversion method using the EISCAT observations. This result revealed that electrons with a wide energy range simultaneously precipitate into the ionosphere in association with the pulsating aurora, providing the evidence that pulsating auroras are caused by whistler chorus waves. We suggest that scattering by propagating whistler simultaneously causes both the precipitations of subrelativistic electrons and the pulsating aurora.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Miyoshi, Y.; Oyama, S.; Saito, S.
Pulsating auroras show quasi-periodic intensity modulations caused by the precipitation of energetic electrons of the order of tens of keV. It is expected theoretically that not only these electrons but also subrelativistic/relativistic electrons precipitate simultaneously into the ionosphere owing to whistler mode wave-particle interactions. The height-resolved electron density profile was observed with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) Tromsø VHF radar on 17 November 2012. Electron density enhancements were clearly identified at altitudes >68 km in association with the pulsating aurora, suggesting precipitation of electrons with a broadband energy range from ~10 keV up to at least 200 keV. The riometermore » and network of subionospheric radio wave observations also showed the energetic electron precipitations during this period. During this period, the footprint of the Van Allen Probe-A satellite was very close to Tromsø and the satellite observed rising tone emissions of the lower band chorus (LBC) waves near the equatorial plane. Considering the observed LBC waves and electrons, we conducted a computer simulation of the wave-particle interactions. This showed simultaneous precipitation of electrons at both tens of keV and a few hundred keV, which is consistent with the energy spectrum estimated by the inversion method using the EISCAT observations. This result revealed that electrons with a wide energy range simultaneously precipitate into the ionosphere in association with the pulsating aurora, providing the evidence that pulsating auroras are caused by whistler chorus waves. We suggest that scattering by propagating whistler simultaneously causes both the precipitations of subrelativistic electrons and the pulsating aurora.« less
Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle
Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...
2017-06-08
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less
A Causal Analysis of Observed Declines in Managed Honey Bees (Apis mellifera)
Staveley, Jane P.; Law, Sheryl A.; Fairbrother, Anne; Menzie, Charles A.
2013-01-01
The European honey bee (Apis mellifera) is a highly valuable, semi-free-ranging managed agricultural species. While the number of managed hives has been increasing, declines in overwinter survival, and the onset of colony collapse disorder in 2006, precipitated a large amount of research on bees' health in an effort to isolate the causative factors. A workshop was convened during which bee experts were introduced to a formal causal analysis approach to compare 39 candidate causes against specified criteria to evaluate their relationship to the reduced overwinter survivability observed since 2006 of commercial bees used in the California almond industry. Candidate causes were categorized as probable, possible, or unlikely; several candidate causes were categorized as indeterminate due to lack of information. Due to time limitations, a full causal analysis was not completed at the workshop. In this article, examples are provided to illustrate the process and provide preliminary findings, using three candidate causes. Varroa mites plus viruses were judged to be a “probable cause” of the reduced survival, while nutrient deficiency was judged to be a “possible cause.” Neonicotinoid pesticides were judged to be “unlikely” as the sole cause of this reduced survival, although they could possibly be a contributing factor. PMID:24363549
Precipitation characteristics in tropical Africa using satellite and in situ observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dezfuli, A. K.; Ichoku, I.; Huffman, G. J.; Mohr, K. I.
2017-12-01
Tropical Africa receives nearly all its precipitation as a result of convection. The characteristics of rain-producing systems in this region have not been well-understood, despite their crucial role in regional and global circulation. This is mainly due to the lack of in situ observations. Here, we have used precipitation records from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) ground-based gauge network to improve our knowledge about the rainfall systems in the region, and to validate the recently-released IMERG precipitation product based on satellite observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation. The high temporal resolution of the gauge data has allowed us to identify three classes of rain events based on their duration and intensity. The contribution of each class to the total rainfall and the favorable surface atmospheric conditions for each class have been examined. As IMERG aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and provide higher resolution data, continent-wide comparisons are made between these two products. Due to its improved temporal resolution, IMERG shows some advantages over TMPA in capturing the diurnal cycle and propagation of the meso-scale convective systems. However, the performance of the two satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. The results of this study serve as a basis for our ongoing work on the impacts of biomass burning on precipitation processes in Africa.
Satellite and ground based observations of a large-scale electron precipitation event
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gamble, R. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Clilverd, M.; Thomson, N. R.; Ulich, T.; Parrot, M.; Sauvaud, J.; Berthelier, J.
2010-12-01
In order to describe how geomagnetic storms couple to the upper atmosphere, and hence to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, measurements are required of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere. However, satellite observations are currently poorly suited to providing measurements of energetic and relativistic electron precipitation. The AARDDVARK network (Antarctic-Arctic Radiation-belt (Dynamic) Deposition - VLF Atmospheric Research Konsortium) provides continuous long-range observations of ionisation levels from ~30-85 km altitude, with the goal of increasing the understanding of energy coupling between the Earth's atmosphere, Sun, and Space. In this study we combine AARDDVARK subionospheric VLF measurements with DEMETER electron spectra using modelling techniques to study >100 keV energetic and relativistic electron precipitation into the atmosphere for the 24-hour period beginning 0600UT 19 January during the 17-21 January 2005 geomagnetic storms. The study augments large-scale regional observations using VLF measurements of multiple subionospheric paths to our receiver at Sodankylä, Finland (67.4°N, 26.6°E, L=5.31), combined with detailed in situ measurements from the DEMETER satellite to allow the spatial extent, flux, and energy distribution of the precipitation to be determined. In contrast to other satellites, DEMETER’s electron spectrometer has excellent energy resolution. The DEMETER-measured precipitation spectrum is used to infer an altered electron density profile, modelled using a simple ionospheric electron model. This altered electron profile is then used in a subionospheric VLF model and compared with AARDDVARK VLF results. Matching model results with subionospheric VLF measurements allows calculation of both the intensity and geographic extent (in L) of the precipitation region required to produce such an effect. We find that a flux of 7000 elec.cm-2s-1 >100 keV electrons precipitates into the atmosphere over an L range of 3
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.
2016-01-01
Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.
An Evaluation of CMIP5 Precipitation Variability for China Relative to Observations and CMIP3
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frauenfeld, O. W.; Chen, L.
2013-12-01
Precipitation represents an important link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and is thus a key component of the climate system. As indicated by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface air temperatures increased by 0.74°C during the 20th century, with further warming of 0.2°C/decade projected by the 2030s. Projected changes in precipitation, however, are much more variable, and exhibit more complex temporal and spatial patterns. This presentation focuses on precipitation variability based on 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). Specifically, we focus on China and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the CMIP5 models compared to historical 20th century precipitation variability from two observational precipitation products: the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time series (TS) dataset version 3.10, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) version 6. We also reassess the performance of the third CMIP (CMIP3) to quantify potential improvements in CMIP5 over the previous generation of GCMs. Finally, we provide 21st century precipitation projections for China based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6. These future precipitation projections are presented in light of the observed 20th century biases in the models. We find that CMIP5 models are able to better reproduce the general spatial pattern of observed 20th century precipitation than CMIP3. However, for China as a whole, the annual precipitation magnitude is overestimated in CMIP5, more so than in CMIP3. This smaller overestimation in CMIP3 was primarily driven by a large underestimation of summer precipitation. Spatially, overestimated precipitation magnitudes are evident for most regions of China, especially along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Over southeastern China
Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chylek, Petr; Dubey, Manvendra; Hengartner, Nicholas
Here, we analyze the past (1900–2015) temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in anymore » region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. This analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.« less
Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions
Chylek, Petr; Dubey, Manvendra; Hengartner, Nicholas; ...
2017-10-25
Here, we analyze the past (1900–2015) temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in anymore » region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. This analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.« less
Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) for remote observation of precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Galliano, J. A.; Platt, R. H.
1990-01-01
The design, development, and tests of the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) operating in the 10 to 85 GHz range specifically for precipitation retrieval and mesoscale storm system studies from a high altitude aircraft platform (i.e., ER-2) are described. The primary goals of AMPR are the exploitation of the scattering signal of precipitation at frequencies near 10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz together to unambiguously retrieve precipitation and storm structure and intensity information in support of proposed and planned space sensors in geostationary and low earth orbit, as well as storm-related field experiments. The development of AMPR will have an important impact on the interpretation of microwave radiances for rain retrievals over both land and ocean for the following reasons: (1) A scanning instrument, such as AMPR, will allow the unambiguous detection and analysis of features in two dimensional space, allowing an improved interpretation of signals in terms of cloud features, and microphysical and radiative processes; (2) AMPR will offer more accurate comparisons with ground-based radar data by feature matching since the navigation of the ER-2 platform can be expected to drift 3 to 4 km per hour of flight time; and (3) AMPR will allow underflights of the SSM/I satellite instrument with enough spatial coverage at the same frequencies to make meaningful comparisons of the data for precipitation studies.
Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert G.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Poutiainen, Jani
2008-01-01
It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter
Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Kim, Cheol-Hee
2015-07-01
Forty-year (1971-2010) observations of cloud cover and types have been analyzed, and implications on the effects of aerosol-cloud feedback were explored. Cloud cover and types have been observed over Korea on the basis of visible (human-eye) attributes without any change in official observing instructions. Visibility has been used as an ongoing proxy measure of aerosol concentrations, and observed meteorological variables such as sunshine duration and precipitation have been employed to analyze aerosol causes and implications for urban and regional climate. The analysis revealed persistent decade-long patterns in Korea: steadily reduced visibility (-0.37 km/yr), consistently decreasing sunshine duration (-0.06 %/hr), and declining occurrence of light precipitation. Spatial distributions of sunshine duration and visibility exhibited more localized variations in the early period (1971-1990), and tended to be more uniform throughout Korea over more recent years (1991-2010), implying the recent regional-scale impact of cloud change over northeast Asia. Cloud analysis results showed that the five most common types were stratocumulus (Sc), cirrus (Ci), altostratus (As), stratus (St), and nimbostratus (Ns), with occurrences of 33%, 17%, 17%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. Occurrence of rarely precipitating or nonprecipitating low-level Sc clouds showed an increasing (+0.34%/yr), but no (or only minor) effects of aerosols on heavy precipitation such as cumulus cloud types were found. Cloud cover in the range of 6/10 to 8/10 units has increased by 31.5±6.5%, and occurrences of both cloud-free (~2/10 units) and overcast (~8/10 units) conditions have decreased. Aerosol-cloud-precipitations interaction is highly nonlinear due to feedback mechanisms. One reason for our poor understanding of the aerosol-cloud feedback study is the variety of cloud types with their complicated responses to variations of the aerosol. Our study on the response of precipitation-cloud to long
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.
1999-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.
2018-01-01
Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyoshi, Y.; Kurita, S.; Saito, S.; Shinohara, I.; Kasahara, Y.; Matsuda, S.; Kasaba, Y.; Yagitani, S.; Kojima, H.; Hikishima, M.; Tsuchiya, F.; Kumamoto, A.; Katoh, Y.; Matsuoka, A.; Higashio, N.; Mitani, T.; Takashima, T.; Kasahara, S.; Yokota, S.; Asamura, K.; Kazama, Y.; Wang, S. Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Oyama, S. I.; Ogawa, Y.; Hosokawa, K.; Kataoka, R.; Kero, A.; Hori, T.; Turunen, E. S.; Shoji, M.; Teramoto, M.; Chang, T. F.
2017-12-01
The pulsating aurora is caused by intermittent precipitations of a few - 10s keV electrons, and it is expected that the pitch angle scattering by chorus waves at the magnetosphere is a primary process to cause the pulsating aurora. The Arase satellite that was launched in December, 2016 has obtained comprehensive data sets for plasma/particles and fields/waves. In March and April, 2017, a series of campaign observation focused on the chorus-wave particle interactions from conjugate observations from Arase and ground-based observations, and the pulsating aurora as a manifest of chorus-wave particle ineteractions was the important observation subject. During the campaign observations, good conjugate observations were realized between Arase and ground-based observations in Scandinavia. Associated with the pulsating aurora, the EISCAT VHF incoherent scatter radar at Tromso, Norway observed strong ionization in lower ionosphere. During the period, the Arase satellite observed intense chorus waves near the magnetic equator for a few hours, suggesting that strong pitch angle scattering took place. From the conjugate observations from Arase and ground-based observations, we discuss how chorus waves cause strong precipitation of electrons from plasma sheet and radiation belts.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison
2016-01-01
This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that
An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.
2018-04-01
Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy
Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Huffman, George J.
2013-01-01
Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.
Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naegele, Alexandra Claire
The first part of this study focuses on the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle as seen in observations. In the global energy budget, the atmospheric radiative cooling (ARC) is approximately balanced by latent heating, but on regional scales, the ARC and precipitation are inversely related. We use precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project and radiative flux data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to investigate the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle and how it changes in both space and time. We find that the effect of clouds is to decrease the ARC in the tropics, and to increase the ARC in middle and higher latitudes. We find that, spatially, precipitation and the ARC are negatively correlated in the tropics, and positively correlated in middle and higher latitudes. In terms of the global mean, the precipitation rate and the ARC are temporally out-of-phase during the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the second part of this study, we use a cloud-resolving model to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between precipitation and the ARC. In particular, we explore how the relationship between precipitation and the ARC is affected by convective aggregation, in which the convective activity is confined to a small portion of the domain that is surrounded by a much larger region of dry, subsiding air. We investigate the responses of the ARC and precipitation rate to changes in the sea surface temperature (SST), domain size, and microphysics parameterization. Both fields increase with increasing SST and the use of 2-moment microphysics. The precipitation and ARC show evidence of convective aggregation, and in the domain average, both fields increase as a result. While running these sensitivity tests, we observed a pulsation in the convective precipitation rate, once aggregation had occurred. The period of the pulsation is on the order of ten simulated hours for a domain size of 768 km
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Faulk, Sean P.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Moon, Seulgi; Lora, Juan Manuel
2016-10-01
Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.
Estimating Precipitation Input to a Watershed by Combining Gauge and Radar Derived Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ercan, M. B.; Goodall, J. L.
2011-12-01
One challenge in creating an accurate watershed model is obtaining estimates of precipitation intensity over the watershed area. While precipitation measurements are generally available from gauging stations and radar instruments, both of these approaches for measuring precipitation have strengths and weakness. A typical way of addressing this challenge is to use gauged precipitation estimates to calibrate radar based estimates, however this study proposes a slightly different approach in which the optimal daily precipitation value is selected from either the gauged or the radar estimates based on the observed streamflow for that day. Our proposed approach is perhaps most relevant for cases of modeling watersheds that do not have a nearby precipitation gauge, or for regions that experience convective storms that are often highly spatially variable. Using the Eno River watershed located in Orange County, NC, three different precipitation datasets were created to predict streamflow at the watershed outlet for the time period 2005-2010 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): (1) estimates based on only precipitation gauging stations, (2) estimates based only on gauged-corrected radar observations, and (3) the combination of precipitation estimates from the gauge and radar data determined using our proposed approach. The results show that the combined precipitation approach significantly improves streamflow predictions (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient, E = 0.66) when compared to the gauged estimates alone (E = 0.47) and the radar based estimates alone (E = 0.45). Our study was limited to one watershed, therefore additional studies are needed to control for factors such as climate, ecology, and hydrogeology that will likely influence the results of the analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silvia, Devin
2015-10-01
Understanding the complex nature of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) has been a target of numerous research efforts, both observationally and theoretically. While significant progress has been made in probing the structure and thermodynamic state of the CGM through the detection of metal line absorption systems using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), a complete picture of the physical mechanisms that produce the observed properties does not yet exist. Recent theoretical work has suggested that a delicate balance between radiative cooling and thermal feedback detemines whether or not the CGM is capable of sustaining a stable, multiphase medium that would allow cool clouds to precipitate out of the galactic halo. This new theoretical framework may provide the explanation for many observational results. In this project, we will detemine whether or not this elegant and simple precipitation model can be supported by physics-rich numerical simulations of isolated galaxies. We will use our simulations to gain a deeper understanding of the precipitation model and explore the ionization and temperature stucture of the CGM. Our analysis will include the comparison of realistic synthetic spectra to those produced by HST, using the newly-developed Trident software package.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suzuki, Kenji; Nakagawa, Katsuhiro; Kawano, Tetsuya; Mori, Shuichi; Katsumata, Masaki; Yoneyama, Kunio
2017-04-01
During November-December 2015, as a pilot study of the Years of the Maritime and Continent (YMC), a campaign observation over the southwestern coastal land and adjacent sea of Sumatera Island, Indonesia was carried out to examine land-ocean coupling processes in mechanisms of coastal heavy rain. Our videosonde observations were conducted as a part of this campaign for the better understandings of microphysical features in tropical precipitating clouds developed over the Sumatera Island. Videosonde is one of strong tools to measure hydrometeors in clouds directly. It is a balloon-borne radiosonde that acquires images of precipitation particles via a CCD camera. The system has a stroboscopic illumination that provides information on particle size and shape. One of the advantages for the videosonde is to capture images of precipitation particles as they are in the air because the videosonde can obtain particle images without contact. Recorded precipitation particles are classified as raindrops, frozen drops (hail), graupel, ice crystals, or snowflakes on the basis of transparency and shape. Videosondes were launched from BMKG Bengkulu weather station (3.86°S,102.3°E). After the launch of a videosonde, the Range Height Indicator (RHI) scans by a C-band dual-polarimetric radar installed on R/V Mirai, which was approximately 50 km off Sumatera Island, were continuously performed, targeting the videosonde in the precipitating cloud. Eighteen videosondes were launched into various types of tropical precipitating clouds during the Pre-YMC campaign.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.
2017-12-01
Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.
2017-12-01
In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Are weather models better than gridded observations for precipitation in the mountains? (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Clark, M. P.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.
2013-12-01
Mountain snowpack is a critical storage component in the water cycle, and it provides drinking water for tens of millions of people in the Western US alone. This water store is susceptible to climate change both because warming temperatures are likely to lead to earlier melt and a temporal shift of the hydrograph, and because changing atmospheric conditions are likely to change the precipitation patterns that produce the snowpack. Current measurements of snowfall in complex terrain are limited in number due in part to the logistics of installing equipment in complex terrain. We show that this limitation leads to statistical artifacts in gridded observations of current climate including errors in precipitation season totals of a factor of two or more, increases in wet day fraction, and decreases in storm intensity. In contrast, a high-resolution numerical weather model (WRF) is able to reproduce observed precipitation patterns, leading to confidence in its predictions for areas without measurements and new observations support this. Running WRF for a future climate scenario shows substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation in the mountains related to the physics of hydrometeor production and detrainment that are not captured by statistical downscaling products. The stationarity in statistical downscaling products is likely to lead to important errors in our estimation of future precipitation in complex terrain.
Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...
2016-02-03
This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates
A human-driven decline in global burned area.
Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T
2017-06-30
Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
2018-01-01
Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Facey, Sarah L.
impacts on invertebrates in grassland and woodland systems, respectively. These chapters both highlighted the need for more community-level studies looking at the effects of global change on invertebrates, coupled with greater geographical representation across ecosystems. Particularly for atmospheric change studies, there has been a strong bias toward Northern Hemisphere plantation systems in previous work. Empirical research chapters 3, 5 and 6 used two state-of-the-art field-scale experimental platforms to address the question of how climatic and atmospheric changes will impact invertebrate communities in two Southern Hemisphere systems. Specifically, chapter 3 investigated how a subtropical grassland invertebrate community will respond to five climate change precipitation scenarios, including alterations in the seasonality, frequency and magnitude of rainfall events. Chapters 5 and 6 determined the effects of elevated concentrations of CO2 gas on the overall invertebrate (chapter 5) and ant community (chapter 6) of a critically endangered Eucalyptus woodland. Taken together, these results present contrasting evidence for invertebrate community-level responses to climatic and atmospheric change. On the one hand, communities may be able to cope with future increases in precipitation variability, suggesting that the ecosystem processes underpinned by invertebrates may remain stable in this system. On the other hand, exposure to levels of CO2 not recently experienced within evolutionary timescales, could result in declines in the abundance of organisms that could play important roles in ecological processes. Avenues for future research are discussed, as well as the limitations and challenges inherent in field-scale, community-level climate change research. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David
2017-04-01
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to
Nutritional factors associated with decline in Canada
Benoit Cote
1999-01-01
Forest decline in eastern Canada was particuiarly severe in the early 1980's and is still prevalent in some areas (Bowers and Hopkin 1997). Early public and scientific opinions on the causes of forest decline were often not based on sound scientific knowledge. Factors such as acidic precipitation and ozone were rnost often mentioned as direct causes of forest...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
2016-12-01
Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended
Observing the preservation and decline of abilities in dementias.
Williams, Robert B; French, Laurence A; Ferrell, Richard B
2006-12-01
The Brief Cognitive Rating Scale facilitated observation of the preservation and decline of abilities due to dementias among 73 female and 52 male residents at nursing homes in a northeastern and southwestern state. They ranged in age from 41 to 102 years (M=78, SD = 10.5). Dementia diagnoses included presenile Alzheimers, senile Alzheimers, Vascular Dementia, Dementia secondary to Huntington's Disease, Dementia due to Pick's Disease, and Korsakoff Dementia secondary to chronic alcoholism. Their ratings on tasks of the scale were submitted to an order analysis procedure to explore the order of decline and preservation of abilities. Results for these nursing home residents show an apparent order: loss singly or concurrently of the abilities of concentration and recent memory, followed by past memory and functioning and self-care that also appeared to be unpredictably lost or preserved singly or concurrently by different individuals, and, finally, by orientation that was preserved in 82% of the subjects.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;
2012-01-01
One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5
Observations and modeling of wave-induced microburst electron precipitation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rosenberg, T.J.; Wei, R.; Detrick, D.L.
1990-05-01
Energy-time features of X ray microbursts are examined and compared with the predictions of a test particle simulation model of wave-induced electron precipitation resulting from gyroresonant wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere. An algorithm designed to search the E > 25 keV counting rate data for single isolated microbursts identified 651 events in a 3-hr interval. The distribution of burst durations ranged from 0.2 to 1.2 s. Approximately two-thirds of the distribution were narrow bursts (0.2 - 0.6 s), the rest wide (0.6 - 1.2 s), with the average burst durations equal to {minus}0.4 s and {minus}0.7 s, respectively, for themore » two classes. The precipitation was characterized by exponential electron spectra with e-folding energies Eo of 25-50 keV. Individual and superposed microburst profiles show that the X ray energy spectrum is softest near the peak of the energy influx. Computer simulations of the flux- and energy-time profiles of direct and mirrored electron precipitation induced by a whistler-mode wave pulse of 0.2-s duration and linear frequency increase from 2 to 4 kHz were performed for plasma, energetic particle and wave parameters appropriate for the location and geophysical conditions of the observations. In general, the results provide further support for the guroresonant test particle simulation model, and for the belief that the observed type of microbursts originates in the vicinity of the magnetic equator in a gyroresonant process involving discrete chorus emissions.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chambon, Philippe; Zhang, Sara Q.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Zupanski, Milija; Cheung, Samson
2013-01-01
The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.
Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Savtchenko, Andrey K.; Huffman, George; Vollmer, Bruce
2015-01-01
Using modern satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM, 1998-2014) and reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, 1979-2015) data, we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multiyear declines of precipitation in California appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011 and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief from drought, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation during typical versus drying periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multiyear drying events. Storms delivering up to 50% of the precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall. However, these phenomena can be suppressed and even blocked by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific. The reanalysis and satellite data are proven to be reliable to the extent where they yield information on developing conditions and observed precipitation anomalies.
Summary of types of radiation belt electron precipitation observed by BARREL
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Halford, Alexa
2016-07-01
The Balloon Array for Relativistic Radiation belt Electron Loss (BARREL) was able to infer precipitation of radiation belt electrons on multiple time scales and due to multiple loss mechanisms. One storm will be specifically highlighted which occurred on 26 January 2013 when a solar wind shock hit the Earth. Although MeV electrons were observed to be lost due to an EMIC wave event [Zhang et al in prep], and multiple periods of electron loss during substorms were observed [Rae et al submitted JGR, Mann et al in prep], we will consider an event period where loss associated with multiple time scales, and thus possibly different loss mechanisms was observed from 1000 - 1200 UT on 26 January 2013. At about 1005 UT on 26 January 2013 an injection of radiation belt electrons followed by drift echoes for energies of ˜80 - 400 keV. BARREL observed X-rays with energies less than 180 keV associated with multiple temporal structures during the drift echo event period. The Van Allen Probes were at similar L-values but upwards of 2 hours away in MLT. Upper band chorus and ULF waves were observed during the event period. Throughout the beginning of the event period, microbursts were clearly observed. During this time lower band chorus waves as well as time domain structures were observed at Van Allen Probe A located upwards of 2 hours away in MLT. This large difference in MLT meant that neither potential loss mechanism was able to be clearly associated with the microbursts. As the lower band chorus and time domain structures were observed to recede, the microbursts were also observed to subside. ULF time scale modulation of the X-rays was also observed throughout most of the event period. We will examine if the ULF waves are the cause of the precipitation themselves, or are modulating the loss of particles from a secondary loss mechanism [Brito et al 2015 JGR, Rae et al Submitted JGR]. Although the 100s ms and ULF time scales are clearly observed, there is an ˜20 minute
Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.
2012-01-01
Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackler, D. A.; Jahn, J.; Pollock, C. J.
2013-12-01
Plamasheet particles transported Earthward during times of active magnetic convection can interact with thermospheric neutrals through charge exchange. The resulting ENAs are free to leave the influence of the magnetosphere and can be remotely detected. ENAs associated with low altitude (300-800 km) ion precipitation in the high latitude inner mangetosphere are termed Low Altitude Emissions (LAEs). LAEs are highly non-isotropic in velocity space such that the pitch angle distribution at the time of charge exchange is near 90 degrees. The observed Geomagnetic Emission Cone (GEC) of LAEs can be mapped spatially, showing where energy is deposited during storm/sub-storm times. In this study we present a statistical look at the particulate albedo of LAEs over the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The particulate albedo is defined as the ratio of the emitting energetic neutrals to the precipitating ions. The precipitating ion differential directional flux maps are built up from combining NOAA 14/15/16 TED and DMSP 13/14/15 SSJ4 data. Low altitude ENA signatures are identified manually using IMAGE/MENA images and selected out. The geomagnetic location of each pixel representing a LAE source region in the neutral images is computed assuming an altitude of 650 km. Before taking the ratio of the resulting flux of neutrals and ions, the Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and Invariant Latitude (IL) bin sizes are changed such that each has less than 20% error in counting statistics. The particulate albedo maps are then evaluated over changes in geomagnetic storm activity.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin
2018-04-01
The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Im, Eastwood
2012-01-01
In this paper we illustrate the unique dataset collected during the Global Precipitation Measurement Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx, US/Canada Jan/Feb 2012). We will focus on the significance of these observations for the development of algorithms for GPM and ACE, with particular attention to classification and retrievals of frozen and mixed phase hydrometeors.
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar
2017-05-01
Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.
Exploring the causes of declining Colorado River streamflow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, M.; Udall, B. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.
2017-12-01
As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized streamflow at Lee's Ferry declined by about 1/6th. However, annual precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) part (above Lees Ferry) over that period increases slightly (1.4%; ΔPwinter is -0.2% and ΔPsummer is 3.0%). In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed a set of experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings for each of 20 sub-basins that make up the basin. Negative winter precipitation anomalies have occurred in the handful of highly productive sub-basins that account for much of streamflow at Lee's Ferry. Although a few headwater tributaries have received above-average precipitation that counteracts some of the runoff losses, the dominant signal in the highly productive sub-basins is declining precipitation and runoff. The situation is exacerbated by pervasive warming that has reduced winter snowpacks and enhanced ET (1.9°C increase for winter and 1.7°C for summer). The warming causes over half (53%) of the long-term decreasing runoff trend. The remainder is caused by a combination of reduced precipitation and increasing winter ET associated with increased net shortwave radiation. From comparison with an earlier 1953-1968 drought that was caused primarily by anomalously low precipitation across UCRB, we find higher temperatures have played a much larger role in the post-Millennium Drought, although reductions in precipitation in several of the most productive headwater basins have played a role as well. Finally, we evaluate the Upper Basin April-July runoff forecast, which decreased dramatically as the runoff season progressed. We find that well much of the spring was anomalously warm, the proximate cause of most of the forecast reduction was anomalous dryness, which accompanied the warmer conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bovolo, C. Isabella; Pereira, Ryan; Parkin, Geoff; Wagner, Thomas
2010-05-01
The tropical rainforests of the Guianas, north of the Amazon, are home to several Amerindian communities, hold high levels of biodiversity and, importantly, remain some of the world's most pristine and intact rainforests. Not only do they have important functions in the global carbon cycle, but they regulate the local and regional climate and help generate rain over vast distances. Despite their significance however, the climate and hydrology of this region is poorly understood. It is important to establish the current climate regime of the area as a baseline against which any impacts of future climate change or deforestation can be measured but observed historical climate datasets are generally sparse and of low quality. Here we examine the available precipitation and temperature datasets for the region and derive tentative precipitation and temperature maps focussed on Guyana. To overcome the limitations in the inadequate observational data coverage we also make use of a reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ECMWF ERA40 dataset comprises a spatially consistent global historical climate for the period 1957-2002 at a ~125 km2 (1.125 degree) resolution at the equator and is particularly valuable for establishing the climate of data-poor areas. Once validated for the area of interest, ERA40 is used to determine the precipitation and temperature regime of the Guianas. Grid-cell by grid-cell analysis provides a complete picture of spatial patterns of averaged monthly precipitation variability across the area, vital for establishing a basis from which to compare any future effects of climate change. This is the first comprehensive study of the recent historical climate and its variability in this area, placing a new hydroclimate monitoring and research program at the Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Guyana, into the broader climate context. Mean differences (biases) and
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.
2013-03-01
Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, L.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Scott, C. A.; Zeng, C.; SHI, X.
2017-12-01
Precipitation is one of the crucial inputs for models used to better understand hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is a difficult task to obtain a reliable precipitation data set describing the spatial and temporal characteristic due to the limited meteorological observations and high variability of precipitation. This study carries out intensive observation of precipitation in a high mountain catchment in the southeast of the Tibet during July to August 2013. According to the rain gauges set up at different altitudes, it is found that precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude. The observed precipitation is used to depict the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 6.0 hours and the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100m for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. Based on the gridded precipitation derived from the PG and HD and the nearby Linzhi meteorological station at lower altitude, a distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets (WEB-DHM) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes. Beside the observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are also used for model calibration and validation. The resulting runoff, SCA and LST simulations are all reasonable. Sensitivity analyses indicate that runoff is greatly underestimated without considering PG, illustrating that short-term intensive precipitation observation contributes to improving hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.
Lightning and Precipitation: Observational Analysis of LIS and PR
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adamo, C.; Solomon, R.; Goodman, S.; Dietrich, S.; Mugnai, A.
2003-01-01
Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Menéndez José Luis, Marcos; Gómez José Luis, Sánchez; Campano Laura, López; Ortega Eduardo, García; Suances Andrés, Merino; González Sergio, Fernández; Salvador Estíbaliz, Gascón; González Lucía, Hermida
2015-04-01
In this study, we used a 28-day database corresponding to December, January and February of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 campaigns to analyze cloud structure that produced precipitation in the Sierra Norte near Madrid, Spain. We used remote sensing measurements, both active type like the K-band Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and passive type like the Radiometrics MP-3000A multichannel microwave radiometer. Using reflectivity data from the MRR, we determined the important microphysical parameters of Ice Water Content (IWC) and its integrated value over the atmospheric column, or Ice Water Path (IWP). Among the measurements taken by the MP-3000A were Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). By representing these data together, sharp declines in LWP and IWV were evident, coincident with IWP increases. This result indicates the ability of a K-band radar to measure the amount of ice in the atmospheric column, simultaneously revealing the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen mechanism. We also used a Present Weather Sensor (VPF-730; Biral Ltd., Bristol, UK) to determine the type and amount of precipitation at the surface. With these data, we used regression equations to establish the relationship between visibility and precipitation intensity. In addition, through theoretical precipitation visibility-intensity relationships, we estimated the type of crystal, degree of accretion (riming), and moisture content of fallen snow crystals.
Precipitation regimes over central Greenland inferred from 5 years of ICECAPS observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pettersen, Claire; Bennartz, Ralf; Merrelli, Aronne J.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Walden, Von P.
2018-04-01
A novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. Using differences in the spectral variation of microwave absorption and scattering properties of cloud liquid water and ice, this method can distinguish between different types of snowfall events depending on the presence or absence of condensed liquid water in the clouds that generate the precipitation. The classification reveals two distinct, primary regimes of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS): one originating from fully glaciated ice clouds and the other from mixed-phase clouds. Five years of co-located, multi-instrument data from the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) are used to examine cloud and meteorological properties and patterns associated with each precipitation regime. The occurrence and accumulation of the precipitation regimes are identified and quantified. Cloud and precipitation observations from additional ICECAPS instruments illustrate distinct characteristics for each regime. Additionally, reanalysis products and back-trajectory analysis show different synoptic-scale forcings associated with each regime. Precipitation over the central GIS exhibits unique microphysical characteristics due to the high surface elevations as well as connections to specific large-scale flow patterns. Snowfall originating from the ice clouds is coupled to deep, frontal cloud systems advecting up and over the southeast Greenland coast to the central GIS. These events appear to be associated with individual storm systems generated by low pressure over Baffin Bay and Greenland lee cyclogenesis. Snowfall originating from mixed-phase clouds is shallower and has characteristics typical of supercooled cloud liquid water layers, and slowly propagates from the south and southwest of Greenland along a quiescent flow above the GIS.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Behrangi, Ali; Stephens, Graeme; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Lambrigsten, Bjorn; Lebstock, Matthew
2014-01-01
This study contributes to the estimation of the global mean and zonal distribution of oceanic precipitation rate using complementary information from advanced precipitation measuring sensors and provides an independent reference to assess current precipitation products. Precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR) were merged, as the two complementary sensors yield an unprecedented range of sensitivity to quantify rainfall from drizzle through the most intense rates. At higher latitudes, where TRMM PR does not exist, precipitation estimates from Aqua's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) complemented CloudSat CPR to capture intense precipitation rates. The high sensitivity of CPR allows estimation of snow rate, an important type of precipitation at high latitudes, not directly observed in current merged precipitation products. Using the merged precipitation estimate from the CloudSat, TRMM, and Aqua platforms (this estimate is abbreviated to MCTA), the authors' estimate for 3-yr (2007-09) nearglobal (80degS-80degN) oceanic mean precipitation rate is approx. 2.94mm/day. This new estimate of mean global ocean precipitation is about 9% higher than that of the corresponding Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) value (2.68mm/day) and about 4% higher than that of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; 2.82mm/day). Furthermore, MCTA suggests distinct differences in the zonal distribution of precipitation rate from that depicted in GPCPand CMAP, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A, A.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wada, Y.; Mishra, V.
2017-12-01
The availability and depletion of groundwater resources - a possible threat to food and water security - are impacted by both pumping and climate variability, although the relative importance of these two drivers is rarely quantified. Here we show that long-term change in the monsoon precipitation is a major driver of groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. GRACE and observation well data show that groundwater storage has declined in north India with a rate of 2 cm/year and increased in the south India by 1 to 2 cm/year during the period of 2002-2013. A large fraction of total variability in groundwater storage is influenced by precipitation in northcentral and southern India. Groundwater storage variability in the northwestern India is mainly explained by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is influenced by precipitation. Declines in precipitation in north India is linked with the Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognised teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage. These results have strong implications for management of groundwater resources under current and future climate conditions in India.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wingo, S. M.; Petersen, W. A.; Gatlin, P. N.; Marks, D. A.; Wolff, D. B.; Pabla, C. S.
2017-12-01
The versatile SIMBA (System for Integrating Multi-platform data to Build the Atmospheric column) precipitation data-fusion framework produces an atmospheric column data product with multi-platform observations set into a common 3-D grid, affording an efficient starting point for multi-sensor comparisons and analysis that can be applied to any region. Supported data sources include: ground-based scanning and profiling radars (S-, X-, Ku-, K-, and Ka-band), multiple types of disdrometers and rain gauges, the GPM Core Observatory's Microwave Imager (GMI, 10-183 GHz) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR, Ka/Ku-band), as well as thermodynamic soundings and the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor QPE product. SIMBA column data files provide a unique way to evaluate the complete vertical profile of precipitation. Two post-launch (GPM Core in orbit) field campaigns focused on different facets of the GPM mission: the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) was geared toward winter season (November-February) precipitation in Pacific frontal systems and their transition from the coastal to mountainous terrain of northwest Washington, while the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) sampled warm season (April-June) precipitation and supported hydrologic applications in the southern Appalachians and eastern North Carolina. Both campaigns included multiple orographic precipitation enhancement episodes. SIMBA column products generated for select OLYMPEX and IPHEx events will be used to evaluate spatial variability and vertical profiles of precipitation and drop size distribution parameters derived and/or observed by space- and ground-based sensors. Results will provide a cursory view of how well the space-based measurements represent what is observed from the ground below and an indication to how the terrain in both regions impacts the characteristics of precipitation within the column and reaching the ground.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wingo, S. M.; Petersen, W. A.; Gatlin, P. N.; Marks, D. A.; Wolff, D. B.; Pabla, C. S.
2016-12-01
The versatile SIMBA (System for Integrating Multi-platform data to Build the Atmospheric column) precipitation data-fusion framework produces an atmospheric column data product with multi-platform observations set into a common 3-D grid, affording an efficient starting point for multi-sensor comparisons and analysis that can be applied to any region. Supported data sources include: ground-based scanning and profiling radars (S-, X-, Ku-, K-, and Ka-band), multiple types of disdrometers and rain gauges, the GPM Core Observatory's Microwave Imager (GMI, 10-183 GHz) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR, Ka/Ku-band), as well as thermodynamic soundings and the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor QPE product. SIMBA column data files provide a unique way to evaluate the complete vertical profile of precipitation. Two post-launch (GPM Core in orbit) field campaigns focused on different facets of the GPM mission: the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) was geared toward winter season (November-February) precipitation in Pacific frontal systems and their transition from the coastal to mountainous terrain of northwest Washington, while the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) sampled warm season (April-June) precipitation and supported hydrologic applications in the southern Appalachians and eastern North Carolina. Both campaigns included multiple orographic precipitation enhancement episodes. SIMBA column products generated for select OLYMPEX and IPHEx events will be used to evaluate spatial variability and vertical profiles of precipitation and drop size distribution parameters derived and/or observed by space- and ground-based sensors. Results will provide a cursory view of how well the space-based measurements represent what is observed from the ground below and an indication to how the terrain in both regions impacts the characteristics of precipitation within the column and reaching the ground.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gimmi, U.; Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.
2007-01-01
In contrast to barometric and thermometric records, early instrumental precipitation series are quite rare. Based on systematic descriptive daily records, a quantitative monthly precipitation series for Bern (Switzerland) was reconstructed back to the year 1760 (reconstruction based on documentary evidence). Since every observer had his own personal style to fill out his diary, the main focus was to avoid observer-specific bias in the reconstruction. An independent statistical monthly precipitation reconstruction was performed using instrumental data from European sites. Over most periods the reconstruction based on documentary evidence lies inside the 2 standard errors of the statistical estimates. The comparison between these two approaches enables an independent verification and a reliable error estimate. The analysis points to below normal rainfall totals in all seasons during the late 18th century and in the 1820s and 1830s. Increased precipitation occurred in the early 1850s and the late 1870s, particularly from spring to autumn. The annual precipitation totals generally tend to be higher in the 20th century than in the late 18th and 19th century. Precipitation changes are discussed in the context of socioeconomic impacts and Alpine glacier dynamics. The conceptual design of the reconstruction procedure is aimed at application for similar descriptive precipitation series, which are known to be abundant from the mid-18th century in Europe and the U.S.
Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.
Sodhi, Navjot S; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Bradshaw, Corey J A
2008-02-20
Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.
Emergence flux declines disproportionately to larval density along a stream metals gradient
Schmidt, Travis S.; Kraus, Johanna M.; Walters, David M.; Wanty, Richard B.
2013-01-01
Effects of contaminants on adult aquatic insect emergence are less well understood than effects on insect larvae. We compared responses of larval density and adult emergence along a metal contamination gradient. Nonlinear threshold responses were generally observed for larvae and emergers. Larval densities decreased significantly at low metal concentrations but precipitously at concentrations of metal mixtures above aquatic life criteria (Cumulative Criterion Accumulation Ratio (CCAR) ≥ 1). In contrast, adult emergence declined precipitously at low metal concentrations (CCAR ≤ 1), followed by a modest decline above this threshold. Adult emergence was a more sensitive indicator of the effect of low metals concentrations on aquatic insect communities compared to larvae, presumably because emergence is limited by a combination of larval survival and other factors limiting successful emergence. Thus effects of exposure to larvae are not manifest until later in life (during metamorphosis and emergence). This loss in emergence reduces prey subsidies to riparian communities at concentrations considered safe for aquatic life. Our results also challenge the widely held assumption that adult emergence is a constant proportion of larval densities in all streams.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kidd, Chris; Matsui, Toshi; Chern, Jiundar; Mohr, Karen; Kummerow, Christian; Randel, Dave
2015-01-01
The estimation of precipitation across the globe from satellite sensors provides a key resource in the observation and understanding of our climate system. Estimates from all pertinent satellite observations are critical in providing the necessary temporal sampling. However, consistency in these estimates from instruments with different frequencies and resolutions is critical. This paper details the physically based retrieval scheme to estimate precipitation from cross-track (XT) passive microwave (PM) sensors on board the constellation satellites of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Here the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF), a physically based Bayesian scheme developed for conically scanning (CS) sensors, is adapted for use with XT PM sensors. The present XT GPROF scheme utilizes a model-generated database to overcome issues encountered with an observational database as used by the CS scheme. The model database ensures greater consistency across meteorological regimes and surface types by providing a more comprehensive set of precipitation profiles. The database is corrected for bias against the CS database to ensure consistency in the final product. Statistical comparisons over western Europe and the United States show that the XT GPROF estimates are comparable with those from the CS scheme. Indeed, the XT estimates have higher correlations against surface radar data, while maintaining similar root-mean-square errors. Latitudinal profiles of precipitation show the XT estimates are generally comparable with the CS estimates, although in the southern midlatitudes the peak precipitation is shifted equatorward while over the Arctic large differences are seen between the XT and the CS retrievals.
Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glisan, Justin Michael
Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Watermann, Jurgen; Lummerzheim, Dirk; De La Beaujardiere, Odile; Newell, Patrick T.; Rich, Frederic J.
1994-01-01
We have examined Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar observations of ionospheric plasma density and temperature distributions and measurements of F region ion drifts that were made during a prenoon pass of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)-F7 satellite through the radar field of view. The spacecraft traversed a region of intense electron precipitation with a characteristic energy below approximately 200 eV. Particles with such low characteristic energies are believed to be directly or indirectly of magnetosheath origin. The precipitation region had a width about 2 deg invariant latitude and covered the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), the cusp, and the equatorward section of the plasma mantle (PM). The corotating radar observed a patch of enhanced electron density and elevated electron temperature in the F2 region between about 10.5 and 12 magnetic local time in the same invariant latitude range where DMSP-F7 detected the soft-electron flux. The ion drift pattern, also obtained by radar, shows that it is unlikely that the plasma patch was produced by solar radiation and advected into the radar field of view. We suggest that the radar observed modifications of the ionospheric plasma distribution, which resulted from direct entry of magnetosheath electrons into the magnetosphere and down to ionospheric altitudes. Model calculations of the ionospheric response to the observed electron precipitation support our interpretation. The spectral characteristics of the electron flux in the LLBL, cusp, and equatorward section of the PM were in this case too similar to allow to distinguish between them by using incoherent scatter radar measurements only.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, K. E.
2006-12-01
The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global
Modeled Variations of Precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bromwich, David H.; Robasky, Frank M.; Keen, Richard A.; Bolzan, John F.
1993-07-01
A parameterization of the synoptic activity at 500 hPa and a simple orographic scheme are used to model the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1963-88 from analyzed geopotential height fields produced by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Model coefficients are fitted to observed accumulation data, primarily from the summit area of the ice sheet. All major spatial characteristics of the observed accumulation distribution are reproduced apart from the orographic accumulation maximum over the northwestern coastal slopes. The modeled time-averaged total precipitation amount over Greenland is within the range of values determined by other investigators from surface-based observations. A realistic degree of interannual variability in precipitation is also simulated.A downward trend in simulated ice sheet precipitation over the 26 years is found. This is supported by a number of lines of evidence. It matches the accumulation trends during this period from ice cores drilled in south-central Greenland. The lower tropospheric specific humidifies at two south coastal radiosonde stations also decrease over this interval. A systematic shift away from Greenland and a decrease in activity of the dominant storm track are found for relatively low precipitation periods as compared to relatively high precipitation periods. This negative precipitation trend would mean that the Greenland Ice Sheet, depending on its 1963 mass balance state, has over the 1963-88 period either decreased its negative, or increased its positive, contribution to recently observed global sea level rise.Superimposed on the declining simulated precipitation rate for the entire ice sheet is a pronounced 3-5-yr periodicity. This is prominent in the observed and modeled precipitation time series from Summit, Greenland. This cycle shows some aspects in common with the Southern Oscillation.Some deficiencies in the NMC analysts were highlighted by this work. A
Consistent radiative transfer modeling of active and passive observations of precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adams, Ian
2016-04-01
Spaceborne platforms such as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission exploit a combination of active and passive sensors to provide a greater understanding of the three-dimensional structure of precipitation. While "operationalized" retrieval algorithms require fast forward models, the ability to perform higher fidelity simulations is necessary in order to understand the physics of remote sensing problems by testing assumptions and developing parameterizations for the fast models. To ensure proper synergy between active and passive modeling, forward models must be consistent when modeling the responses of radars and radiometers. This work presents a self-consistent transfer model for simulating radar reflectivities and millimeter wave brightness temperatures for precipitating scenes. To accomplish this, we extended the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) version 2.3 to solve the radiative transfer equation for active sensors and multiple scattering conditions. Early versions of ARTS (1.1) included a passive Monte Carlo solver, and ARTS is capable of handling atmospheres of up to three dimensions with ellipsoidal planetary geometries. The modular nature of ARTS facilitates extensibility, and the well-developed ray-tracing tools are suited for implementation of Monte Carlo algorithms. Finally, since ARTS handles the full Stokes vector, co- and cross-polarized reflectivity products are possible for scenarios that include nonspherical particles, with or without preferential alignment. The accuracy of the forward model will be demonstrated with precipitation events observed by TRMM and GPM, and the effects of multiple scattering will be detailed. The three-dimensional nature of the radiative transfer model will be useful for understanding the effects of nonuniform beamfill and multiple scattering for spatially heterogeneous precipitation events. The targets of this forward model are GPM (the
Mechem, David B.; Giangrande, Scott E.; Wittman, Carly S.; ...
2015-03-13
A case of shallow cumulus and precipitating cumulus congestus sampled at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) supersite is analyzed using a multi-sensor observational approach and numerical simulation. Observations from a new radar suite surrounding the facility are used to characterize the evolving statistical behavior of the precipitating cloud system. This is accomplished using distributions of different measures of cloud geometry and precipitation properties. Large-eddy simulation (LES) with size-resolved (bin) microphysics is employed to determine the forcings most important in producing the salient aspects of the cloud system captured in the radar observations. Our emphasis ismore » on assessing the importance of time-varying vs. steady-state large-scale forcing on the model's ability to reproduce the evolutionary behavior of the cloud system. Additional consideration is given to how the characteristic spatial scale and homogeneity of the forcing imposed on the simulation influences the evolution of cloud system properties. Results indicate that several new scanning radar estimates such as distributions of cloud top are useful to differentiate the value of time-varying (or at least temporally well-matched) forcing on LES solution fidelity.« less
Changes in the chemistry of precipitation in the United States, 1981-1998
Nilles, M.A.; Conley, B.E.
2001-01-01
Regulatory measures in the United States, such as Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, have primarily restricted sulfur dioxide emissions as a way to control acidic deposition. These restrictions, coupled with increasing concentrations of NH4+ in wet deposition in some regions of the U.S. and continued high emissions of nitrogen oxides have generated a significant shift in the chemistry of precipitation as measured at National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network sites. Trends in precipitation chemistry at NADP/NTN sites were evaluated for statistical significance for the period 1981-1998 using a Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test, a robust non-parametric test for detection of monotonic trends. SO42- declines were detected at 100 of the 147 sites examined while no sites exhibited increasing SO42- trends. On average, SO42- declined 35% over the period 1981-1998 with downward SO42- trends being most pronounced in the northeastern United States. In contrast, no consistent trends in NO3- concentrations were observed in precipitation in any major region of the United States. Although the majority of sites did not exhibit significant trends in NH4+ concentration, 30 sites exhibited upward trends. For Ca2+ concentration in precipitation, 64 sites exhibited a significant decreasing trend and no sites exhibited an upward trend.
Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenfeld, Daniel; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Asmi, Ari; Chin, Mian; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Donovan, David P.; Kahn, Ralph; Kinne, Stefan; Kivekäs, Niku; Kulmala, Markku; Lau, William; Schmidt, K. Sebastian; Suni, Tanja; Wagner, Thomas; Wild, Martin; Quaas, Johannes
2014-12-01
Cloud drop condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and, consequently, cloud albedo and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosol-induced changes to precipitation. This can modify the reflected solar radiation and the thermal radiation emitted to space. Measurements of tropospheric CCN and IN over large areas have not been possible and can be only roughly approximated from satellite-sensor-based estimates of optical properties of aerosols. Our lack of ability to measure both CCN and cloud updrafts precludes disentangling the effects of meteorology from those of aerosols and represents the largest component in our uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Ways to improve the retrieval accuracy include multiangle and multipolarimetric passive measurements of the optical signal and multispectral lidar polarimetric measurements. Indirect methods include proxies of trace gases, as retrieved by hyperspectral sensors. Perhaps the most promising emerging direction is retrieving the CCN properties by simultaneously retrieving convective cloud drop number concentrations and updraft speeds, which amounts to using clouds as natural CCN chambers. These satellite observations have to be constrained by in situ observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate (ACPC) interactions, which in turn constrain a hierarchy of model simulations of ACPC. Since the essence of a general circulation model is an accurate quantification of the energy and mass fluxes in all forms between the surface, atmosphere and outer space, a route to progress is proposed here in the form of a series of box flux closure experiments in the various climate regimes. A roadmap is provided for quantifying the ACPC interactions and thereby reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gutowski, William J.; Lindemulder, Elizabeth A.; Jovaag, Kari
1995-01-01
We use retrievals of atmospheric precipitable water from satellite microwave observations and analyses of near-surface temperature to examine the relationship between these two fields on daily and longer time scales. The retrieval technique producing the data used here is most effective over the open ocean, so the analysis focuses on the southern hemisphere's extratropics, which have an extensive ocean surface. For both the total and the eddy precipitable water fields, there is a close correspondence between local variations in the precipitable water and near-surface temperature. The correspondence appears particularly strong for synoptic and planetary scale transient eddies. More specifically, the results support a typical modeling assumption that transient eddy moisture fields are proportional to transient eddy temperature fields under the assumption f constant relative humidity.
AUREOL-3 observations of new boundaries in the auroral ion precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bosqued, Jean M.; Ashour-Abdalla, Maha; El Alaoui, Mostafa; Zelenyj, Lev M.; Berthlier, Annick
1993-01-01
Interesting and well-separated structures in the 1-20 keV ion precipitation pattern have been revealed by an analysis of more than 50 crossings of the nightside (21-03 MLT) auroral zone by the AUREOL-3 satellite. First, velocity-dispersed ion structures (VDIS) are crossed near the poleward edge of the oval, and are the best ionospheric signature of ion beams flowing along the plasma sheet boundary layer. Proceeding equatorward, a large majority of VDIS events are bounded by a new and interesting narrow band of strongly reduced precipitation, or a gap, which delineates VDIS from the diffuse precipitation region connected to the CPS. A statistical analysis shows that the gap has an extent of about 1-2 deg, which is almost independent of magnetic activity; its location, about 70 deg ILAT, shifts significantly equatorward with higher magnetic activity levels. Intense electron arcs are observed near the equatorward edge of the gap. An important result is that the overall sequence of VDIS-gap-CPS can be explained in terms of orbital dynamics in the tail. The gap in precipitation appears as the counterpart of the 'wall' regime in the equatorial plane, in which a cross-tail current carried by energetic ions is strongly enhanced between 8 and 12 R(E). This region has important consequences for the development of substorms.
Precipitation Characteristics in Tropical Africa Using Satellite and In-Situ Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dezfuli, Amin; Ichoku, Charles; Huffman, George; Mohr, Karen
2017-01-01
Tropical Africa receives nearly all its precipitation as a result of convection. The characteristics of rain-producing systems in this region, despite their crucial role in regional and global circulation, have not been well-understood. This is mainly due to the lack of in situ observations. Here, we have used precipitation records from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) to improve our knowledge about the rainfall systems in the region, and to validate the recently-released IMERG precipitation product. The high temporal resolution of the gauge data has allowed us to identify three classes of rain events based on their duration and intensity. The contribution of each class to the total rainfall and the favorable surface atmospheric conditions for each class have been examined. As IMERG aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TMPA, and provide higher resolution data, continent-wide comparisons are made between these two products. IMERG, due to its improved temporal resolution, shows some advantages over TMPA in capturing the diurnal cycle and propagation of the meso-scale convective systems. However, the performance of the two satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. The results of this study serve as a basis for our ongoing work on the impacts of biomass burning on precipitation processes in Africa.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erlingis, J. M.; Gourley, J. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J. A.; Anagnostou, M.
2015-12-01
An Intensive Observation Period (IOP) for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), part of NASA's Ground Validation campaign for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite took place from May-June 2014 in the Smoky Mountains of western North Carolina. The National Severe Storms Laboratory's mobile dual-pol X-band radar, NOXP, was deployed in the Pigeon River Basin during this time and employed various scanning strategies, including more than 1000 Range Height Indicator (RHI) scans in coordination with another radar and research aircraft. Rain gauges and disdrometers were also positioned within the basin to verify precipitation estimates and estimation of microphysical parameters. The performance of the SCOP-ME post-processing algorithm on NOXP data is compared with real-time and near real-time precipitation estimates with varying spatial resolutions and quality control measures (Stage IV gauge-corrected radar estimates, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Quantitative Precipitation Estimates, and CMORPH satellite estimates) to assess the utility of a gap-filling radar in complex terrain. Additionally, the RHI scans collected in this IOP provide a valuable opportunity to examine the evolution of microphysical characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation as they impinge on terrain. To further the understanding of orographically enhanced precipitation, multiple storms for which RHI data are available are considered.
Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.
Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L
2014-07-01
Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
Measuring the Meltdown: Drivers of Global Amphibian Extinction and Decline
Sodhi, Navjot S.; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C.; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W.; Sekercioglu, Cagan H.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.
2008-01-01
Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation. PMID:18286193
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sirota, Ido; enzel, Yehouda; Lensky, Nadav G.
2017-04-01
Layered halite sequences deposited in deep basins throughout the geological record. However, analogues of such sequences are commonly studied in sallow environments. Here we study active precipitation of halite layers from the only modern analog for deep, halite-precipitating basin, the hypersaline Dead Sea. In situ observations in the Dead Sea link seasonal thermohaline stratification, halite saturation, and the characteristics of the actively forming halite layers. The spatiotemporal evolution of halite precipitation in the Dead Sea was characterized by means of monthly observations of the i) lake thermohaline stratification (temperature, salinity, and density), ii) degree of halite saturation, and iii) textural evolution of the active halite deposits. We present the observed relationships between textural characteristics of layered halite deposits (i.e. grain size, consolidation, and roughness) and the degree of saturation, which in turn reflected the limnology and hydro-climatology. The lakefloor is divided into two principle environments: A deep, hypolimnetic and a shallow, epilimnetic lakefloor. In the deeper hypolimnetic lakefloor halite continuously precipitates with seasonal variations: (a) during summer, consolidated coarse halite crystals form rough surfaces under slight super-saturation. (b) During winter, unconsolidated, fine halite crystals form smooth seafloor deposits under high supersaturation. The observations also emphasize the thought regarding seasonal alternation of halite crystallization mechanism. The shallow epilimnetic lake floor is highly influenced by the seasonal temperature variations, and by intensive summer dissolution of part of the previous year's halite deposit which results in thin sequences with annual unconformities. This emphasizes the control of temperature seasonality on the precipitated halite layers characteristics. In addition, precipitation of halite in the hypolimnetic floor, on the expense of the dissolution of the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.
2017-04-01
This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Li; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Hongbo; Scott, Christopher A.; Zeng, Chen; Shi, Xiaonan
2018-01-01
Precipitation is one of the most critical inputs for models used to improve understanding of hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is challenging to generate a reliable precipitation data set capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the harsh climate, extreme terrain and the lack of observations. This study conducts intensive observation of precipitation in the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau during July to August 2013. Because precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude, the observed data are used to characterize the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100 m and the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 5.2 h for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. A distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets with improved physical process for snow (WEB-DHM-S) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes with gridded precipitation data derived from a lower altitude meteorological station and the PG and HD characterized for the study area. The observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are used for model calibration and validation. Runoff, SCA and LST simulations all show reasonable results. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that runoff is largely underestimated without considering PG, indicating that short-term intensive precipitation observation has the potential to greatly improve hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.
Response of desert biological soil crusts to alterations in precipitation frequency
Belnap, J.; Phillips, S.L.; Miller, M.E.
2004-01-01
showed the largest decline in quantum yield, chlorophyll a, and protective pigments; crusts dominated by Nostoc-Scytonema-Microcoleus showed an intermediate decline in these variables; and the crusts dominated by Microcoleus showed the least negative response. Most previous studies of crust response to radiation stress have been short-term laboratory studies, where organisms were watered and kept under moderate temperatures. Such conditions would give crust organisms access to ample carbon to respond to imposed stresses (e.g., production of UV-protective pigments, replacement of degraded chlorophyll). In contrast, our longer-term study showed that under field conditions of high air temperatures and frequent, small precipitation events, crust organisms appear unable to produce protective pigments in response to radiation stress, as they likely dried more quickly than when they received larger, less frequent events. Reduced activity time likely resulted in less carbon available to produce or repair chlorophyll a and/or protective pigments. Our findings may partially explain the global observation that soil lichen cover and richness declines as the frequency of summer rainfall increases. ?? Springer-Verlag 2003.
Analyses of Chinese Hourly Precipitation Using Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates Products
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pan, Y.; Yu, J.; Shen, Y.
2010-12-01
Highly spatial-temporal and accurate precipitation analyses are essential for monitoring the catastrophic mesoscale weather systems, examining numerical model outputs, and doing dynamic researches on mesoscale meteorology. In recent years, Chinese government has gradually developed a ground-based observational net of 30000 auto-weather-stations (AWS) all over the country, most of which are in the eastern and southern China. The real-time data of gauged rainfall is transported to National Meteorological Information of China (NMIC) every hour, and its quality has been strictly and effectually controlled. Taking advantage of these resources, an hourly Chinese Precipitation Analyses Products (CPAP) with fine resolution is developed. But on the Tibetan Plateau where the AWS is still sparse, the accuracy of precipitation can not satisfy the operational needs yet. Otherwise, CMORPH has a well performance on the space structure of rainfall over China in warm season, but loses on intensity. Thus, we make a merge test analysis at resolution of 0.1 ×0.1 degree , using Optimum Interpolation (OI) to combine hourly CPAP with CMORPH estimates precipitation products. Before OI,the systematic bias in CMORPH have been partly corrected by gauge data through PDF adjustments. The validation of the merge test from June to August 2009 shows that, the combined products can obviously reduce the bias to the gauge analyses CPAP, and also have highly coefficient with it. It is more important that, the combined products provide a reasonable and full-covered precipitation structure over Tibetan Plateau.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.
2015-04-01
Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean
UC Irvine CHRS iRain - An Integrated System for Global Real-time Precipitation Observation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tran, H.; Nguyen, P.; Huynh, P.; Palacios, T.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.
2016-12-01
CHRS iRain developed by the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), University of California, Irvine is an integrated system for global real-time rainfall observation and visualization using multiple data sources from satellites, radars, gauges, and crowd sourcing. Its backbone is the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks - Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS, Hong et al. 2004). Apart from using traditional PERSIANN technique (Hsu et al. 1997), the PERSIANN-CCS also applies image processing and pattern recognition techniques, which significantly improve its accuracy as well as its temporal and spatial resolution (in hourly and 4 km x 4 km respectively). Although satellite-based precipitation products are developing fast, they are still relatively new compared with other precipitation observations by traditional measuring methods, such as radar or rain gauges. CHRS iRain also provides hourly precipitation information from NCEP Stage IV multi-sensor (radar + gauges) products and gauges with over 2000 NOAA River Forecast Center stations. On the website, users can retrieve data of the most recent 72 hour precipitation over different spatial regions regarding their own interests such as grid coordinate, rectangle, watershed, basin, political division, and country. CHRS iRain is a useful tool that provides important global rainfall information for water resources management and decision making for natural disasters such as flash floods, urban flooding, and river flooding. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe would like to acknowledge NASA, NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS), Cooperative Institue for Climate and Satellites (CICS), Army Research Office (ARO), ICIWaRM, and UNESCO for supporting this research.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neal, Jason J.; Rodger, Craig J.; Clilverd, Mark A.; Thomson, Neil R.; Raita, Tero; Ulich, Thomas
2015-03-01
We analyze observations of subionospherically propagating very low frequency (VLF) radio waves to determine outer radiation belt energetic electron precipitation (EEP) flux magnitudes. The radio wave receiver in Sodankylä, Finland (Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory) observes signals from the transmitter with call sign NAA (Cutler, Maine). The receiver is part of the Antarctic-Arctic Radiation-belt Dynamic Deposition VLF Atmospheric Research Konsortia (AARDDVARK). We use a near-continuous data set spanning November 2004 until December 2013 to determine the long time period EEP variations. We determine quiet day curves over the entire period and use these to identify propagation disturbances caused by EEP. Long Wave Propagation Code radio wave propagation modeling is used to estimate the precipitating electron flux magnitudes from the observed amplitude disturbances, allowing for solar cycle changes in the ambient D region and dynamic variations in the EEP energy spectra. Our method performs well during the summer months when the daylit ionosphere is most stable but fails during the winter. From the summer observations, we have obtained 693 days worth of hourly EEP flux magnitudes over the 2004-2013 period. These AARDDVARK-based fluxes agree well with independent satellite precipitation measurements during high-intensity events. However, our method of EEP detection is 10-50 times more sensitive to low flux levels than the satellite measurements. Our EEP variations also show good agreement with the variation in lower band chorus wave powers, providing some confidence that chorus is the primary driver for the outer belt precipitation we are monitoring.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jung, Eunsil; Albrecht, Bruce A.; Feingold, Graham; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Chuang, Patrick; Donaher, Shaunna L.
2016-07-01
Shallow marine cumulus clouds are by far the most frequently observed cloud type over the Earth's oceans; but they are poorly understood and have not been investigated as extensively as stratocumulus clouds. This study describes and discusses the properties and variations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation associated with shallow marine cumulus clouds observed in the North Atlantic trades during a field campaign (Barbados Aerosol Cloud Experiment- BACEX, March-April 2010), which took place off Barbados where African dust periodically affects the region. The principal observing platform was the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter (TO) research aircraft, which was equipped with standard meteorological instruments, a zenith pointing cloud radar and probes that measured aerosol, cloud, and precipitation characteristics.The temporal variation and vertical distribution of aerosols observed from the 15 flights, which included the most intense African dust event during all of 2010 in Barbados, showed a wide range of aerosol conditions. During dusty periods, aerosol concentrations increased substantially in the size range between 0.5 and 10 µm (diameter), particles that are large enough to be effective giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The 10-day back trajectories showed three distinct air masses with distinct vertical structures associated with air masses originating in the Atlantic (typical maritime air mass with relatively low aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer), Africa (Saharan air layer), and mid-latitudes (continental pollution plumes). Despite the large differences in the total mass loading and the origin of the aerosols, the overall shapes of the aerosol particle size distributions were consistent, with the exception of the transition period.The TO was able to sample many clouds at various phases of growth. Maximum cloud depth observed was less than ˜ 3 km, while most clouds were less than 1 km
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.
2014-02-01
The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.
Chapter 7: Precipitation Change in the United States
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; LeGrande, A. N.; Leung, L. R.; Vose, R. S.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.
2017-01-01
Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 is mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901. There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States. In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)-the main mechanism for warm season precipitation in the central part of the United States-have increased in occurrence and precipitation amounts since 1979. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to increase over the 21st century (high confidence). Mesoscale convective systems in the central United States are expected to continue to increase in number and intensity in the future. There are, however, important regional and seasonal differences in projected changes in total precipitation: the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation in the winter and spring, and parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent, North America maximum snow depth, snow water equivalent in the western United States, and extreme snowfall years in the southern and western United States have all declined, while extreme snowfall years in parts of the northern United States have increased. Projections indicate large declines in snowpack in the western United States and shifts to more precipitation falling as rain than snow in the cold season in many parts of the central and eastern United States.
Using Observations from GPM and CloudSat to Produce a Climatology of Precipitation over the Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayden, L.; Liu, C.
2017-12-01
Satellite based instruments are essential to the observation of precipitation at a global scale, especially over remote oceanic regions. Each instrument has its own strengths and limitations when it comes to accurately determining the rate of precipitation occurring at the surface. By using the complementary strengths of two satellite based instruments, we attempt to produce a more complete climatology of global oceanic precipitation. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Osbervatory's Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) is capable of measuring precipitation producing radar reflectivity above 12 dBZ [Hamada and Takayabu 2016]. The CloudSat satellite's Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) uses higher frequency C band (94 GHz) radiation, and is therefore capable of measuring precipitation occurring at low precipitation rates which are not detected by the GPM DPR. The precipitation estimates derived by the two satellites are combined and the results are examined. CloudSat data from July 2006 to December 2010 are used. GPM data from March 2014 through May 2016 are used. Since the two datasets do not temporally overlap, this study is conducted from a climatological standpoint. The average occurrence for different precipitation rates is calculated for both satellites. To produce the combined dataset, the precipitation from CloudSat are used for the low precipitation rates while CloudSat precipitation amount is greater than that from GPM DPR, until GPM DPR precipitation amount is higher than that from CloudSat, at which precipitation rate data from the GPM are used. By combining the two datasets, we discuss the seasonal and geo-graphical distribution of weak precipitation detected by CloudSat that is beyond the sensitivity of GPM DPR. We also hope to gain a more complete picture of the precipitation that occurs over oceanic regions.
Predatory leeches (Hirudinida) may contribute to amphibian declines in the Lassen, California.
Stead Jonathan; Karen Pope
2010-01-01
Researchers have documented precipitous declines in Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) populations in the southern portion of the species' range, in the Lassen region of California. Reasons for the declines, however, have not been elucidated. In addition to common, widespread causes, an understanding of local community interactions may be necessary...
Investigating Satellite Microwave observations of Precipitation in Different Climate Regimes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.
2013-12-01
Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperature characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The original data sets will focus on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total perceptible water. We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of ancillary data (e.g., land surface temperature, snow cover/water equivalent, etc.) to improve precipitation estimation over land in different climate regimes, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.
Tian, Fei; Yang, Yonghui; Han, Shumin
2009-01-01
Water resources in North China have declined sharply in recent years. Low runoff (especially in the mountain areas) has been identified as the main factor. Hutuo River Basin (HRB), a typical up-stream basin in North China with two subcatchments (Ye and Hutuo River Catchments), was investigated in this study. Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the general trend of precipitation and runoff for 1960-1999. Then Sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to establish runoff slope-break from which the beginning point of sharp decline in runoff was determined. Finally, regression analysis was done to illustrate runoff decline via comparison of precipitation-runoff correlation for the period prior to and after sharp runoff decline. This was further verified by analysis of rainy season peak runoff flows. The results are as follows: (1) annual runoff decline in the basin is significant while that of precipitation is insignificant at alpha=0.05 confidence level; (2) sharp decline in runoff in Ye River Catchment (YRC) occurred in 1968 while that in Hutuo River Catchment (HRC) occurred in 1978; (3) based on the regression analysis, human activity has the highest impact on runoff decline in the basin. As runoff slope-breaks in both Catchments strongly coincided with increase in agricultural activity, agricultural water use is considered the dominate factor of runoff decline in the study area.
Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa
1999-01-01
Stream water data from five headwater basins in the northeastern United States covering water years 1968–1996 and precipitation data from eight nearby precipitation monitoring sites covering water years 1984‐1996 were analyzed for temporal trends in chemistry using the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Concentrations of SO4declined at three of five streams during 1968–1996 (p < 0.1), and all of the streams exhibited downward trends in SO4 over the second half of the period (1984–1996). Concentrations of SO4 in precipitation declined at seven of eight sites from 1984 to 1996, and the magnitudes of the declines (−0.7 to −2.0 µeq L−1 yr−1) generally were similar to those of stream water SO4. These results indicate that changes in precipitation SO4 were of sufficient magnitude to account for changes in stream water SO4. Concentrations of Ca + Mg declined at three of five streams and five of eight precipitation sites from 1984 to 1996. Precipitation acidity decreased at five of eight sites during the same period, but alkalinity increased in only one stream. In most cases the decreases in stream water SO4 were similar in magnitude to declines in stream water Ca + Mg, which is consistent with the theory of leaching by mobile acid anions in soils. In precipitation the magnitudes of SO4 declines were similar to those of hydrogen, and declines in Ca +Mg were much smaller. This indicates that recent decreases in SO4 deposition are now being reflected in reduced precipitation acidity. The lack of widespread increases in stream water alkalinity, despite the prevalence of downward trends in stream water SO4, suggests that at most sites, increases in stream water pH and acid‐neutralizing capacity may be delayed until higher soil base‐saturation levels are achieved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Faulk, S.; Moon, S.; Mitchell, J.; Lora, J. M.
2016-12-01
Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by extensive observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability and resulting relative erosion rates within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barras, Vaughan; Simmonds, Ian
2010-05-01
The application of stable water isotopes as tracers of moisture throughout the hydrological cycle is often hindered by the relatively coarse temporal and spatial resolution of observational data. Intensive observation periods (IOPs) of isotopes in precipitation have been valuable in this regard enabling the quantification of the effects of vapour recycling, convection, cloud top height and droplet reevaporation (Dansgaard, 1953; Miyake et al., 1968; Gedzelman and Lawrence, 1982; 1990; Pionke and DeWalle, 1992; Risi et al., 2008; 2009) and have been used as a basis to develop isotope models of varying complexity (Lee and Fung, 2008; Bony et al., 2008). This study took a unified approach combining observation and modelling of stable isotopes in precipitation in an investigation of three key circulation types that typically bring rainfall to southeastern Australia. The observational component of this study involved the establishment of the Melbourne University Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (MUNIP). MUNIP was devised to sample rainwater simultaneously at a number of collection sites across greater Melbourne to record the spatial and temporal isotopic variability of precipitation during the passage of particular events. Samples were collected at half-hourly intervals for three specific rain events referred to as (1) mixed-frontal, (2) convective, and (3) stratiform. It was found that the isotopic content for each event varied over both high and low frequencies due to influences from local changes in rain intensity and large scale rainout respectively. Of particular note was a positive relationship between deuterium excess and rainfall amount under convective conditions. This association was less well defined for stratiform rainfall. As a supplement to the data coverage of the observations, the events were simulated using a version of NCAR CAM3 running with an isotope hydrology scheme. This was done by periodically nudging the model dynamics with data from the
Effects of Aerosols on Autumn Precipitation over Mid-Eastern China
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chen, Siyu; Huang, J.; Qian, Yun
2014-09-20
Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation (i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after 1980s (~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy (i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsiblemore » for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Ours results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to the relatively more stable synoptic system in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominated in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.« less
Assessing the Factors of Regional Growth Decline of Sugar Maple
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bishop, D. A.; Beier, C. M.; Pederson, N.; Lawrence, G. B.; Stella, J. C.; Sullivan, T. J.
2014-12-01
Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) is among the most ecologically, economically and culturally important trees in North America, but has experienced a decline disease across much of its range. We investigated the climatic and edaphic factors associated with A. saccharum growth in the Adirondack Mountains (USA) using a well-replicated tree-ring network incorporating a range of soil fertility (base cation availability). We found that nearly 3 in 4 A. saccharum trees exhibited declining growth rates during the last several decades, regardless of tree age or size. Although diameter growth was consistently higher on base-rich soils, the negative trends in growth were largely consistent across the soil chemistry gradient. Sensitivity of sugar maple growth to climatic variability was overall weaker than expected, but were also non-stationary during the 20th century. We observed increasingly positive responses to late-winter precipitation, increasingly negative responses to growing season temperatures, and strong positive responses to moisture availability during the 1960s drought that became much weaker during the recent pluvial. Further study is needed of these factors and their interactions as potential mechanisms for sugar maple growth decline.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann M.; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben
2011-01-01
The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.
Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen
2016-04-01
The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.
Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.
2014-02-25
Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less
Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.
2009-12-01
Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.
2018-01-01
Attribution of Antarctic ozone recovery to the Montreal protocol requires evidence that (1) Antarctic chlorine levels are declining and (2) there is a reduction in ozone depletion in response to a chlorine decline. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of O3, HCl, and N2O to demonstrate that inorganic chlorine (Cly) from 2013 to 2016 was 223 ± 93 parts per trillion lower in the Antarctic lower stratosphere than from 2004 to 2007 and that column ozone depletion declined in response. The mean Cly decline rate, 0.8%/yr, agrees with the expected rate based on chlorofluorocarbon lifetimes. N2O measurements are crucial for identifying changes in stratospheric Cly loading independent of dynamical variability. From 2005 to 2016, the ozone depletion and Cly time series show matching periods of decline, stability, and increase. The observed sensitivity of O3 depletion to changing Cly agrees with the sensitivity simulated by the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model integrated with Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 meteorology.
Soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in observations and models (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taylor, C.
2013-12-01
There is considerable uncertainty about the strength, geographical extent, and even the sign of feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation. Whilst precipitation trivially increases soil moisture, the impact of soil moisture, via surface fluxes, on convective rainfall is far from straight-forward, and likely depends on space and time scale, soil and synoptic conditions, and the nature of the convection itself. In considering how daytime convection responds to surface fluxes, large-scale models based on convective parameterisations may not necessarily provide reliable depictions, particularly given their long-standing inability to reproduce a realistic diurnal cycle of convection. On the other hand, long-term satellite data provide the potential to establish robust relationships between soil moisture and precipitation across the world, notwithstanding some fundamental weaknesses and uncertainties in the datasets. Here, results from regional and global satellite-based analyses are presented. Globally, using 3-hourly precipitation and daily soil moisture datasets, a methodology has been developed to compare the statistics of antecedent soil moisture in the region of localised afternoon rain events (Taylor et al 2012). Specifically the analysis tests whether there are any significant differences in pre-event soil moisture between rainfall maxima and nearby (50-100km) minima. The results reveal a clear signal across a number of semi-arid regions, most notably North Africa, indicating a preference for afternoon rain over drier soil. Analysis by continent and by climatic zone reveals that this signal (locally a negative feedback) is evident in other continents and climatic zones, but is somewhat weaker. This may be linked to the inherent geographical differences across the world, as detection of a feedback requires water-stressed surfaces coincident with frequent active convective initiations. The differences also reflect the quality and utility of the soil moisture
Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Song, Hua; Lin, Wuyin; Lin, Yanluan; Wolf, Audrey B.; Neggers, Roel; Donner, Leo J.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Liu, Yangang
2013-01-01
This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.
Assimilation of Precipitation Measurement Missions Microwave Radiance Observations With GEOS-5
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jin, Jianjun; Kim, Min-Jeong; McCarty, Will; Akella, Santha; Gu, Wei
2015-01-01
The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Core Observatory satellite was launched in February, 2014. The GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) is a conically scanning radiometer measuring 13 channels ranging from 10 to 183 GHz and sampling between 65 S 65 N. This instrument is a successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), which has observed 9 channels at frequencies ranging 10 to 85 GHz between 40 S 40 N since 1997. This presentation outlines the base procedures developed to assimilate GMI and TMI radiances in clear-sky conditions, including quality control methods, thinning decisions, and the estimation of, observation errors. This presentation also shows the impact of these observations when they are incorporated into the GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krueger, S. K.; Zulauf, M. A.; Li, Y.; Zipser, E. J.
2005-05-01
Global satellite datasets such as those produced by ISCCP, ERBE, and CERES provide strong observational constraints on cloud radiative properties. Such observations have been widely used for model evaluation, tuning, and improvement. Cloud radiative properties depend primarily on small, non-precipitating cloud droplets and ice crystals, yet the dynamical, microphysical and radiative processes which produce these small particles often involve large, precipitating hydrometeors. There now exists a global dataset of tropical cloud system precipitation feature (PF) properties, collected by TRMM and produced by Steve Nesbitt, that provides additional observational constraints on cloud system properties. We are using the TRMM PF dataset to evaluate the precipitation microphysics of two simulations of deep, precipitating, convective cloud systems: one is a 29-day summertime, continental case (ARM Summer 1997 SCM IOP, at the Southern Great Plains site); the second is a tropical maritime case: the Kwajalein MCS of 11-12 August 1999 (part of a 52-day simulation). Both simulations employed the same bulk, three-ice category microphysical parameterization (Krueger et al. 1995). The ARM simulation was executed using the UCLA/Utah 2D CRM, while the KWAJEX simulation was produced using the 3D CSU CRM (SAM). The KWAJEX simulation described above is compared with both the actual radar data and the TRMM statistics. For the Kwajalein MCS of 11 to 12 August 1999, there are research radar data available for the lifetime of the system. This particular MCS was large in size and rained heavily, but it was weak to average in measures of convective intensity, against the 5-year TRMM sample of 108. For the Kwajalein MCS simulation, the 20 dBZ contour is at 15.7 km and the 40 dBZ contour at 14.5 km! Of all 108 MCSs observed by TRMM, the highest value for the 40 dBZ contour is 8 km. Clearly, the high reflectivity cores are off scale compared with observed cloud systems in this area. A similar
Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raja, Nussaïbah B.; Aydin, Olgu
2018-04-01
This study researched the precipitation variability across 53 meteorological stations in Mauritius and different subregions of the island, over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). Time series was investigated for each 5-year interval and also for the whole study period. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho statistical tests were used to detect trends in annual precipitation. A mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends was highlighted for the 5-year interval analysis. The statistical tests nevertheless agreed on the overall trend for Mauritius and the subregions. Most regions showed a decrease in precipitation during the period 1996-2000. This is attributed to the 1998-2000 drought period which was brought about by a moderate La Niña event. In general, an increase in precipitation levels was observed across the country during the study period. This increase is the result of an increase in extreme precipitation events in the region. On the other hand, two subregions, both located in the highlands, experienced a decline in precipitation levels. Since most of the reservoirs in Mauritius are located in these two subregions, this implies serious consequences for water availability in the country if existing storage capacities are kept.
A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun
2017-04-01
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chandra, Chandrasekar V.; Chen*, Haonan; Petersen, Walter
2017-04-01
The active Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and passive radiometer onboard Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's Core Observatory extend the observation range attained by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) from tropical to most of the globe [1]. Through improved measurements of precipitation, the GPM mission is helping to advance our understanding of Earth's water and energy cycle, as well as climate changes. Ground Validation (GV) is an indispensable part of the GPM satellite mission. In the pre-launch era, several international validation experiments had already generated a substantial dataset that could be used to develop and test the pre-launch GPM algorithms. After launch, more ground validation field campaigns were conducted to further evaluate GPM precipitation data products as well as the sensitivities of retrieval algorithms. Among various validation equipment, ground based dual-polarization radar has shown great advantages to conduct precipitation estimation over a wide area in a relatively short time span. Therefore, radar is always a key component in all the validation field experiments. In addition, the radar polarization diversity has great potential to characterize precipitation microphysics through the identification of raindrop size distribution and different hydrometeor types [2]. Currently, all the radar sites comprising the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88DP) network are operating in dual-polarization mode. However, most of the operational radar based precipitation products are produced at coarse resolution typically on 1 km by 1 km spatial grids, focusing on precipitation accumulations at temporal scales of 1-h, 3-h, 6-h, 12-h, and/or 24-h (daily). Their capability for instantaneous GPM product validation is severely limited due to the spatial and temporal mismatching between observations from the ground and space. This paper first presents the rationale and
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gong, Gavin; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido D.
1994-01-01
Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackler, David A.
Plasmasheet particles transported Earthward during times of active magnetospheric convection can interact with thermospheric neutrals through charge exchange. The resulting Energetic Neutral Atoms (ENAs) are free to leave the influence of the magnetosphere and can be remotely detected. ENAs associated with low altitude (300--800 km) ion precipitation in the high latitude atmosphere/ionosphere are termed Low Altitude Emissions (LAEs). Remotely observed LAEs are highly non-isotropic in velocity space such that the pitch angle distribution at the time of charge exchange is near 90 degrees. The Geomagnetic Emission Cone (GEC) of LAEs can be mapped spatially, showing where proton energy is deposited during times of varying geomagnetic activity. In this study we present a statistical look at the correlation between LAE flux (intensity and location) and geomagnetic activity as well as comparisons of LAE signatures with in situ ion precipitation. The LAE data is from the MENA imager on the IMAGE satellite over the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2000--2005). The SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices are used to describe geomagnetic activity. The in situ data is from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). The goal of the study is to evaluate properties of LAEs in ENA images and determine if those images can be used to infer properties of ion precipitation. Results indicate a general positive correlation to LAE flux for all three indices, with the SYM-H showing the greatest non-linearity. The MLT distribution of LAEs are centered about midnight and spread with increasing activity. The Invariant Latitude for all indices has a slightly negative correlation. The combined results indicate that both LAE and DMSP data behave similarly to geomagnetic activity. LAEs are more spread out in latitude, possibly due to multiple charge exchange interactions, while the in situ data changes to lower latitudes dramatically with increasing flux. The bulk of the data indicates that the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.
2016-01-01
Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and
Paltry past-precipitation: Predisposing prairie dogs to plague?
Eads, David; Biggins, Dean E.
2017-01-01
The plague bacterium Yersinia pestis was introduced to California in 1900 and spread rapidly as a sylvatic disease of mammalian hosts and flea vectors, invading the Great Plains in the United States by the 1930s to 1940s. In grassland ecosystems, plague causes periodic, devastating epizootics in colonies of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), sciurid rodents that create and maintain subterranean burrows. In doing so, plague inhibits prairie dogs from functioning as keystone species of grassland communities. The rate at which fleas transmit Y. pestis is thought to increase when fleas are abundant. Flea densities can increase during droughts when vegetative production is reduced and herbivorous prairie dogs are malnourished and have weakened defenses against fleas. Epizootics of plague have erupted frequently in prairie dogs during years in which precipitation was plentiful, and the accompanying cool temperatures might have facilitated the rate at which fleas transmitted Y. pestis. Together these observations evoke the hypothesis that transitions from dry-to-wet years provide conditions for plague epizootics in prairie dogs. Using generalized linear models, we analyzed a 24-year dataset on the occurrence of plague epizootics in 42 colonies of prairie dogs from Colorado, USA, 1982–2005. Of the 33 epizootics observed, 52% erupted during years with increased precipitation in summer. For the years with increased summer precipitation, if precipitation in the prior growing season declined from the maximum of 502 mm to the minimum of 200 mm, the prevalence of plague epizootics was predicted to increase 3-fold. Thus, reduced precipitation may have predisposed prairie dogs to plague epizootics when moisture returned. Biologists sometimes assume dry conditions are detrimental for plague. However, 48% of epizootics occurred during years in which precipitation was scarce in summer. In some cases, an increased abundance of fleas during dry years might
Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago
Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.
2003-01-01
Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.
Asymmetry in ecosystem responses to precipitation: Theory, observation and experimentation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sala, O.; Gherardi, L.; Reichmann, L.; Peters, D.
2017-12-01
Ecosystem processes such as primary production respond to changes in precipitation that occur annually and at longer time scales. The questions guiding this presentation are whether ecosystem responses to wet and dry years are symmetrical. Is the increase in productivity in a wet year similar in absolute value to the decrease in productivity in a dry year following a wet year? Is the response to one dry or wet year similar tot response of several consecutive wet and dry years? Do all plant-functional groups respond in a similar way to changes in precipitation? To address the questions we explore the theory behind a potential asymmetry and report on experimental results. Analysis of the cost and benefits of plant responses to changes in precipitation support the idea asymmetrical responses because the threshold for abscising organs that have already been deployed should be higher than the threshold to deploy new organs. However, experiments in a desert grassland in New Mexico where we experimentally increased and decreased precipitation from one year to the next showed that the response was symmetrical. Another mechanism that may yield asymmetries is the productivity response to changes in precipitation is associated with the shape of the relationship between precipitation and productivity. Straight-line relationship may yield no asymmetries whereas a saturating or concave up relationship may result in different asymmetries. Here, we report results from an experiment that yielded concave down responses for grasses and concave up for shrubs. Finally, we report results from a 10-year experiment showing asymmetric responses of grasses and shrubs. Moreover, the magnitude of the sign of the responses changed with the time since the beginning of the precipitation manipulation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garg, Piyush; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Lang, Timothy J.; Chronis, Themis
2016-01-01
The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David
2003-01-01
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.
Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts
Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong
2017-01-01
Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0–4, 0–9 and 0–6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010
Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.
Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong
2017-01-01
Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0-4, 0-9 and 0-6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010, respectively
Echo 2 - Observations at Fort Churchill of a 4-keV peak in low-level electron precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arnoldy, R. L.; Hendrickson, R. A.; Winckler, J. R.
1975-01-01
The Echo 2 rocket flight launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, offered the opportunity to observe high-latitude low-level electron precipitation during quiet magnetic conditions. Although no visual aurora was evident at the time of the flight, an auroral spectrum sharply peaked at a few keV was observed to have intensities from 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than peaked spectra typically associated with bright auroral forms. There is a growing body of evidence that relates peaked electron spectra to discrete aurora. The Echo 2 observations show that whatever the mechanism for peaking the electron spectrum in and above discrete forms, it operates over a range of precipitation intensities covering nearly 3 orders of magnitude down to subvisual or near subvisual events.
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo
1997-01-01
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
di Diodato, A.; de Leonibus, L.; Zauli, F.; Biron, D.; Melfi, D.
2009-04-01
Operational Estimation of Accumulated Precipitation using Satellite Observation, by Eumetsat Satellite Application facility in Support to Hydrology (H-SAF Consortium). Cap. Attilio DI DIODATO(*), T.Col. Luigi DE LEONIBUS(*), T.Col Francesco ZAULI(*), Cap. Daniele BIRON(*), Ten. Davide Melfi(*) Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) are specialised development and processing centres of the EUMETSAT Distributed Ground Segment. SAFs process level 1b data from meteorological satellites (geostationary and polar ones) in conjunction with all other relevant sources of data and appropriate models to generate services and level 2 products. Each SAF is a consortium of EUMETSAT European partners lead by a host institute responsible for the management of the complete SAF project. The Meteorological Service of Italian Air Force is the host Institute for the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF). HSAF has the commitment to develop and to provide, operationally after 2010, products regarding precipitation, soil moisture and snow. HSAF is going to provide information on error structure of its products and validation of the products via their impacts into Hydrological models. To that purpose it has been structured a specific subgroups. Accumulated precipitation is computed by temporal integration of the instantaneous rain rate achieved by the blended LEO/MW and GEO/IR precipitation rate products generated by Rapid Update method available every 15 minutes. The algorithm provides four outputs, consisting in accumulated precipitation in 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours, delivered every 3 hours at the synoptic hours. These outputs are our precipitation background fields. Satellite estimates can cover most of the globe, however, they suffer from errors due to lack of a direct relationship between observation parameters and precipitation, the poor sampling and algorithm imperfections. For this reason the 3 hours accumulated precipitation is
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2016-01-01
Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.
Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Naeger, Aaron R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Creamean, Jessie M.
2015-01-01
Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
2017-12-01
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
2017-12-28
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less
Tritium in Australian Precipitation: a 40 Year Record
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tadros, C. V.; Stone, D. J.; Hill, D. M.; Henderson-Sellers, A.
2004-12-01
Tritium, the radioisotope of hydrogen, directly incorporated into water molecules in the global hydrological system, is the most commonly used radioisotope indicator of groundwater recharge. Tritium in precipitation has been measured in Australia over the past 40 years, as an essential research tool in hydro-climate studies and to contribute to the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). Tritium, which as tritiated water (3H 1H O) is very mobile in the environment, delivers the benefit of tracing groundwater systems in a 10 - 20 year timeframe as a result of last century's atmospheric thermonuclear testing. The concentration of tritium in Australian precipitation reached a maximum level of 160 TU in 1963, during one of the most intense periods of nuclear testing. Our data reveal Australia experienced a `minor' bomb pulse compared to the Northern Hemisphere eg. in Ottawa, Canada a value of 6000 TU was recorded in 1963 for tritium in precipitation. From 1963 to 1980 we observe a rapid drop in the concentration of tritium, more than expected from natural decay, mainly due to the wash out of tritium into the oceans and groundwater. Since 1990 the levels of tritium have stabilised globally and regionally. Currently the levels of tritium in Australia have stabilised to 2 to 3 TU latitudinally across the continent, a factor of 10 lower than values observed at stations in the Northern Hemisphere. At present, levels of tritium in Australia appear to have ceased declining and our analyses suggest that today the tritium in precipitation is predominantly natural. We believe that it may be possible that the increased levels observed in the Northern Hemisphere, due to nuclear power generation [1] could `leak' into the Southern Hemisphere. This is important for research in Australia because it could hinder the exploitation of tritium in providing information on the origin and mechanism of recharge of shallow groundwaters and rivers [2]. 1. J.D. Happell, et al. A
Precipitation, Climate Change, and Parasitism of Prairie Dogs by Fleas that Transmit Plague.
Eads, David A; Hoogland, John L
2017-08-01
Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that can reduce the fitness of vertebrate hosts. Laboratory populations of fleas decline under dry conditions, implying that populations of fleas will also decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. If precipitation and hence vegetative production are reduced, however, then herbivorous hosts might suffer declines in body condition and have weakened defenses against fleas, so that fleas will increase in abundance. We tested these competing hypotheses using information from 23 yr of research on 3 species of colonial prairie dogs in the western United States: Gunnison's prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni, 1989-1994), Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens, 1996-2005), and white-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys leucurus, 2006-2012). For all 3 species, flea-counts per individual varied inversely with the number of days in the prior growing season with >10 mm of precipitation, an index of the number of precipitation events that might have caused a substantial, prolonged increase in soil moisture and vegetative production. Flea-counts per Utah prairie dog also varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the prior growing season. Furthermore, flea-counts per Gunnison's and white-tailed prairie dog varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the just-completed January and February. These results complement research on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) and might have important ramifications for plague, a bacterial disease transmitted by fleas that devastates populations of prairie dogs. In particular, our results might help to explain why, at some colonies, epizootics of plague, which can kill >95% of prairie dogs, are more likely to occur during or shortly after periods of reduced precipitation. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of droughts in the grasslands of western North America. If so, then climate change might affect the occurrence of plague epizootics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abrishamchi, A.; Mirshahi, A.
2015-12-01
The global coverage, quick access, and appropriate spatial-temporal resolution of satellite precipitation data renders the data appropriate for hydrologic studies, especially in regions with no sufficient rain-gauge network. On the other hand, satellite precipitation products may have major errors. The present study aims at reduction of estimation error of the PERSIANN satellite precipitation product. Bayesian logic employed to develop a statistical relationship between historical ground-based and satellite precipitation data. This relationship can then be used to reduce satellite precipitation product error in near real time, when there is no ground-based precipitation observation. The method was evaluated in the Lake Urmia basin with a monthly time scale; November to May of 2000- 2008 for the purpose of model development and two years of 2009 and 2010 for the validation of the established relationships. Moreover, Kriging interpolation method was employed to estimate the average rainfall in the basin. Furthermore, to downscale the satellite precipitation product from 0.25o to 0.05o, data-location downscaling algorithm was used. In 76 percent of months, the final product, compared with the satellite precipitation, had less error during the validation period. Additionally, its performance was marginally better than adjusted PERSIANN product.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burgos-Cara, Alejandro; Ruiz-Agudo, Encarnacion; Putnis, Christine V.
2016-04-01
Calcium oxalate (CaC2O4ṡxH2O) minerals are naturally occurring minerals found in fossils, plants, kidney stones and is a by-product in some processes such as paper, food and beverage production [1,2]. In particular, calcium oxalate monohydrate phase (COM) also known as whewellite (CaC2O4ṡH2O), is the most frequently reported mineral phase found in urinary and kidney stones together with phosphates. Organic additives are well known to play a key role in the formation of minerals in both biotic and abiotic systems, either facilitating their precipitation or hindering it. In this regard, recent studies have provided direct evidence demonstrating that citrate species could enhance dissolution of COM and inhibit their precipitation. [3,4] The present work aims at evauate the influence of pH, citrate and oxalic acid concentrations in calcium oxalate precipitation on calcite surfaces (Island Spar, Chihuahua, Mexico) through in-situ nanoscale observation using in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM, Multimode, Bruker) in flow-through experiments. Changes in calcium oxalate morphologies and precipitated phases were observed, as well as the inhibitory effect of citrate on calcium oxalate precipitation, which also lead to stabilization an the amorphous calcium oxalate phase. [1] K.D. Demadis, M. Öner, Inhibitory effects of "green"additives on the crystal growth of sparingly soluble salts, in: J.T. Pearlman (Ed.), Green Chemistry Research Trends, Nova Science Publishers Inc., New York, 2009, pp. 265-287. [2] M. Masár, M. Zuborová, D. Kaniansky, B. Stanislawski, Determination of oxalate in beer by zone electrophoresis on a chip with conductivity detection, J. Sep. Sci. 26 (2003) 647-652. [3] Chutipongtanate S, Chaiyarit S, Thongboonkerd V. Citrate, not phosphate, can dissolve calcium oxalate monohydrate crystals and detach these crystals from renal tubular cells. Eur J Pharmacol 2012;689:219-25. [4] Weaver ML, Qiu SR, Hoyer JR, Casey WH, Nancollas GH, De Yoreo JJ
Precipitation Rate Investigation on synthesis of precipitated calcium carbonate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sulistiyono, E.; Handayani, M.; Firdiyono, F.; Fajariani, E. N.
2018-03-01
Study on the formation of precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi with the influenced of various parameters such as precipitation rate, concentration of CaCl2 and amplitudes were investigated. We also investigated the result with the precipitated calcium carbonate from Merck (p.a) for comparison. The higher concentration of CaCl2 would give effect to the lower of the precipitation rate. It was observed that precipitation rate of calcium carbonate from limestone Sukabumi at concentration of 0.08 molar was 3.66 cm/minutes and showing the optimum condition, while the precipitation rate of calcium carbonate Merck at the concentration 0.08 molar was 3.53 cm/minutes. The characterization of precipitated calcium carbonate was done using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The characterization using XRF showed that CaO content of precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi had high purity of 99.16%. The particle distribution using scanning electron microscope (SEM) showed that precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi revealed 1.79 µm – 11.46 µm, meanwhile the particle distribution of precipitated calcium carbonate Merck showed larger particles with the size of 3.22 µm – 10.68 µm.
Perceived Personal Control Buffers Terminal Decline in Well-Being
Gerstorf, Denis; Heckhausen, Jutta; Ram, Nilam; Infurna, Frank J.; Schupp, Juergen; Wagner, Gert G.
2015-01-01
Recent research has repeatedly demonstrated that well-being typically evinces precipitous deterioration close to the end of life. However, the determinants of individual differences in these terminal declines are note well understood. In this study, we examine the role of perceived personal control as a potential buffer against steep terminal declines in well-being. We applied single- and multi-phase growth models to up to 25-year longitudinal data from 1,641 now deceased participants of the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP; age at death: M = 74 years; SD = 14; 49% women). Results revealed that perceiving more personal control over one’s life was related to subsequently higher late-life well-being, less severe rates of late-life declines, and a later onset of terminal decline. Associations were independent of key predictors of mortality, including age, gender, SES, and disability. These findings suggest that feeling in control may ameliorate steep end-of-life decline in well-being. We also discuss scenarios for when and how processes of goal disengagement and giving up control may become beneficial. PMID:25244480
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.
2018-01-01
Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.
Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.
2018-04-01
In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.
Rocket observations of the precipitation of electrons by ground VLF transmitters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arnoldy, Roger L.; Kintner, Paul M.
1989-01-01
Recent results obtained with electric and magnetic receivers aboard a NASA sounding rocket launched on July 31, 1987 are presented which relate multiple electron spectral peaks observed in the bounce loss cone fluxes to the resonant interaction of electrons with VLF waves from ground transmitters. The correlation of transmitter signals passing through the ionosphere with the precipitated electrons was investigated. The analysis of these in situ wave and particle data addresses the propagation of waves through the ionosphere, and, through an application of the resonant theory, enables an estimation of the cold plasma density in the interaction region.
A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna
2014-05-01
atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, Jianping; Deng, Minjun; Lee, Seoung Soo; Wang, Fu; Li, Zhanqing; Zhai, Panmao; Liu, Huan; Lv, Weitao; Yao, Wen; Li, Xiaowen
2016-06-01
The radiative and microphysical effects of aerosols can affect the development of convective clouds. The objective of this study is to reveal if the overall aerosol effects have any discernible impact on the diurnal variations in precipitation and lightning by means of both observational analysis and modeling. As the first part of two companion studies, this paper is concerned with analyzing hourly PM10, precipitation, and lightning data collected during the summers of 2008-2012 in the Pearl River Delta region. Daily PM10 data were categorized as clean, medium, or polluted so that any differences in the diurnal variations in precipitation and lightning could be examined. Heavy precipitation and lightning were found to occur more frequently later in the day under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. Analyses of the diurnal variations in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, vertical velocity, and wind speed were also performed. They suggest that the influence of aerosol radiative and microphysical effects serve to suppress and enhance convective activities, respectively. Under heavy pollution conditions, the reduction in solar radiation reaching the surface delays the occurrence of strong convection and postpones heavy precipitation to late in the day when the aerosol invigoration effect more likely comes into play. Although the effect of aerosol particles can be discernible on the heavy precipitation through the daytime, the influence of concurrent atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics cannot be ruled out.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.
2007-12-01
The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.
Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011
Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.
2014-01-01
This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.
TOWARDS AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF SIMULATED AND OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION
The evaluation of climate model precipitation is expected to reveal biases in simulated mean and extreme precipitation which may be a result of coarse model resolution or inefficiencies in the precipitation generating mechanisms in models. The analysis of future extreme precip...
López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.
2014-01-01
We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara; daSilva, Arlindo; Li, Frank; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations relies on what we know about how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, and the large-scale circulation vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process that links these key climate elements is precipitation. Improving the fidelity of precipitation-related fields in global analyses is essential for gaining a better understanding of the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, research and operational use of precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have shown the tremendous potential of using these data to improve global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. We will give an overview of the benefits of assimilating TRMM and SSM/I rain rates and discuss developmental strategies for using space-based rainfall and rainfall-related observations to improve forecast models and climate datasets in preparation for the proposed multi-national Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zittis, G.
2017-11-01
The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier
Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Craig D.; van der Kamp, Garth; Arnold, Lauren; Schmidt, Randy
2017-10-01
Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter) has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2) varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE), bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bezrukova, Natalia A.; Jeck, Richard K.; Khalili, Marat F.; Minina, Ludmila S.; Naumov, Alexander Ya.; Stulov, Evgeny A.
2006-11-01
This work is a continuation of the previous climatological study of freezing precipitation and rime over the USSR territory [ Bezrukova, N.A., Minina, L.S., Naumov, A.Ya., 2000. Freezing precipitation climatology in the former European USSR. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, pp.737-739, Reno, Nevada, USA, 14-18 August 2000; Bezrukova, N.A., Jeck, R.K., Minina, L.S., Khalili, M.F., Stulov, E.A., 2004. 10-year Statistics on Freezing Precipitation across the former USSR from surface weather observations. Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, pp.731-734, Bologna, Italy, 19-23 August 2004.] aimed at creating an atlas of the frequency of these phenomena. This study gives considerable information about and a statistical analysis of freezing precipitation and rime events observed over the territory of the former USSR during a decade (1981-1990) and over the European territory of the USSR during two decades (1971-1990). This paper intends to draw the attention of the reader to the atlas and statistics by showing some interesting points. The authors used the data provided by the ground-based weather stations involved in the international exchange of meteorological data. The USSR network's Monthly Meteorological Tables (1971-1990) [Monthly Meteorological Tables, 1971-1990. Part 1, Novosibirsk-Obninsk. (in Russian).] comprising selected daily ground-based meteorological observations from more than 220 stations served as a basis for the analysis. All the types of freezing precipitation (FP) events were given as WMO Codes 56, 57, 66, 67, 24 and freezing fog (FF) deposited rime as WMO Codes 48, 49. The entire territory was divided into six major regions: the Arctic, the European part of the USSR, the Trans-Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East. The frequency and distribution of events by regions versus temperature, atmospheric pressure, clouds base height, and some other meteorological
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.
2012-01-01
Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Alured, D.; Liebmann, B.
2013-12-01
As the earth's population, industry, and agricultural systems continue to expand and increase demand for limited hydrologic resources, developing better tools for monitoring, analyzing and perhaps even predicting decadal variations in precipitation will enable the climate community to better inform important policy and management decisions. To this end, in support of the development and humanitarian relief efforts of the US Agency for International Development, USGS, NOAA, UC Santa Barbara, and NASA scientists have been exploring global precipitation trends using observations and new ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations from the ECHAM5, GFSv2, CAM4 and GMAO models. This talk summarizes this work, and discusses how combined analyses of AGCM simulations and observations might lead to credible decadal projections, for some regions and seasons, based on the strength of the Indo-Pacific warming signal. Focusing on the late boreal spring, a critical period for food insecure Africa, we begin by linearly decomposing 1900-2012 sea surface temperatures (SST) into components loading strongly in the Indo-Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Eastern Pacific (EP) SST variations are based on regressions with three time series: the first and second principal components of equatorial Pacific SST and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These influences are removed from Indo-Pacific SSTs, and the Indo-Western Pacific (IWP) SST variations are defined by the 1st principal component of the residuals, which we refer to as the Indo-West Pacific Warming Signal (IWPWS). The pattern of IWPWS SST changes resembles recent assessments of centennial warming, and identifies rapid warming in the equatorial western Pacific and north and south Pacific convergence zones. The circulation impacts of IWP and EP SST forcing are explored in two ways. First, assuming linear SST forcing relationships, IWP and EP decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AGCM simulations are
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coppola, E.; Fantini, A.; Raffaele, F.; Torma, C. Z.; Bacer, S.; Giorgi, F.; Ahrens, B.; Dubois, C.; Sanchez, E.; Verdecchia, M.
2017-12-01
We assess the statistics of different daily precipitation indices in ensembles of Med-CORDEX and EUROCORDEX experiments at high resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.11° , or RCM11) and medium resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.44° , or RCM44) with regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations for the period 1989-2008. The assessment is carried out by comparison with a set of high resolution observation datasets for 9 European subregions. The statistics analyzed include quantitative metrics for mean precipitation, daily precipitation Probability Density Functions (PDFs), daily precipitation intensity, frequency, 95th percentile and 95th percentile of dry spell length. We assess both an ensemble including all Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX models and one including the Med-CORDEX models alone. For the All Models ensembles, the RCM11 one shows a remarkable performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and seasonal cycle of mean precipitation over all regions, with a consistent and marked improvement compared to the RCM44 ensemble and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A good consistency with observations by the RCM11 ensemble (and a substantial improvement compared to RCM44 and ERA-Interim) is found also for the daily precipitation PDFs, mean intensity and, to a lesser extent, the 95th percentile. In fact, for some regions the RCM11 ensemble overestimates the occurrence of very high intensity events while for one region the models underestimate the occurrence of the largest extremes. The RCM11 ensemble still shows a general tendency to underestimate the dry day frequency and 95th percentile of dry spell length over wetter regions, with only a marginal improvement compared to the lower resolution models. This indicates that the problem of the excessive production of low precipitation events found in many climate models persists also at relatively high resolutions, at least in wet climate regimes. Concerning the Med-CORDEX model ensembles we find
Vertical structure of precipitating shallow echoes observed from TRMM during Indian summer monsoon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Shailendra
2017-08-01
The present study explores the properties of precipitating shallow echoes (PSEs) over the tropical areas (30°S-30°N) during Indian summer monsoon season using attenuated corrected radar reflectivity factor (Ze) measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Radar echoes observed in study are less than the freezing height, so they belong to warm precipitation. Radar echoes with at least 0.75 km wide are considered for finding the shallow echoes climatology. Western Ghats and adjoining ocean (Arabian sea) have the highest PSEs followed by Myanmar and Burma coast, whereas the overall west coast of Latin America consists of the lowest PSEs. Tropical oceanic areas contain fewer PSEs compared to coastal areas. Average vertical profiles show nearly similar Ze characteristics which peaks between 1.5 and 2 km altitude with model value 32-34 dBZ. Slope of Ze is higher for intense PSEs as radar reflectivity decreases more rapidly in intense PSEs.
Role of Non-Precipitation Sources in Regulating the River Hydrology of a Himalayan Catchment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grover, S.; Tayal, S.; Beldring, S.
2017-12-01
Hydrology of mountain catchments in Himalayas is strongly regulated by snow/ ice melt. Chenab basin of Himalayas is a snow and glacier fed basin, which makes it perennial and an important source of sustenance for downstream community. It is important to understand the variability in contribution from various sources to the water balance of catchment. Indirect assessment techniques are important to make such an assessment about the runoff patterns especially in data-scarce basins like Chenab. To analyze runoff patterns and contribution from different sources, we applied combination of semi-distributed HBV model and water balance approach for the period between 1971-2007. It was found that the contribution from non-precipitation sources to the total outflow in this region ranged from 30-70% with approximately 30% from glacier ice melt, and base-flow contributing around 20% to annual water-balance. Least precipitation year of 1977 shows maximum contribution from other sources, but also recorded the least outflow in catchment. Seasonal variation of the contribution from glacier ice melt was also estimated and in the months of May and June around 44% of the contribution to the outflow is from glacier melt only. Hydrological balance of the basin is positive during winters with outflow being very less than the inflow of water through precipitation or melt. Melt season starts in March but peaks during May and June with cryospheric contribution being almost twice the base flow contribution. Melting starts receding slowly after September, with its contribution to the outflow declining much below the baseflow contribution in October and November, when base-flow provides around 65% of water to the basin's outflow. Long term (1951-2010) temperature and precipitation data for the higher reaches of the basin indicates a warming trend (0.02 0C yr-1) and a decline in annual precipitation. But on a basin scale, precipitation is increasing and the non-precipitation contribution from
Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.
Pederson, Gregory T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McCabe, Gregory J.
2013-01-01
We used a first-order, monthly snow model and observations to disentangle seasonal influences on 20th century,regional snowpack anomalies in the Rocky Mountains of western North America, where interannual variations in cool-season (November–March) temperatures are broadly synchronous, but precipitation is typically antiphased north to south and uncorrelated with temperature. Over the previous eight centuries, regional snowpack variability exhibits strong, decadally persistent north-south (N-S) antiphasing of snowpack anomalies. Contrary to the normal regional antiphasing, two intervals of spatially synchronized snow deficits were identified. Snow deficits shown during the 1930s were synchronized north-south by low cool-season precipitation, with spring warming (February–March) since the 1980s driving the majority of the recent synchronous snow declines, especially across the low to middle elevations. Spring warming strongly influenced low snowpacks in the north after 1958, but not in the south until after 1980. The post-1980, synchronous snow decline reduced snow cover at low to middle elevations by ~20% and partly explains earlier and reduced streamflow and both longer and more active fire seasons. Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warming trend.
Microbial infections in a declining wild turkey population in Texas
Rocke, T.E.; Yuill, Thomas M.
1987-01-01
A survey was conducted at 5 locations in Texas for avian pathogens that might adversely affect wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) productivity and survival. At 1 site, the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR), turkeys have declined precipitously in recent years. During the winters of 1983-85, 442 wild turkeys were caught with cannon and drop nets, 161 of these on WWR. Blood samples were drawn for serologic evaluation, and cloacal and tracheal swabs were collected for isolation attempts. Salmonella spp. bacteria, Newcastle disease virus (NDV), and avian influenza virus (AIV) were not detected in any samples tested. Serologic tests for antibodies to NDV and AIV also were negative. Many mycoplasma isolates were recovered from turkeys from every location. Characterization of these isolates indicated that several species were present. None were species typically associated with mycoplasmosis in domestic turkeys, such as Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), M. meleagridis (MM), or M. synoviae (MS), although antibodies to these pathogens were detected in turkeys at every location sampled. There was no evidence to link any of these disease causing agents to the decline observed in the population of wild turkeys on the WWR.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lynch, K. A.; Gayetsky, L.; Fernandes, P. A.; Zettergren, M. D.; Lessard, M.; Cohen, I. J.; Hampton, D. L.; Ahrns, J.; Hysell, D. L.; Powell, S.; Miceli, R. J.; Moen, J. I.; Bekkeng, T.
2012-12-01
Auroral precipitation can modify the ionospheric thermal plasma through a variety of processes. We examine and compare the events seen by two recent auroral sounding rockets carrying in situ thermal plasma instrumentation. The Cascades2 sounding rocket (March 2009, Poker Flat Research Range) traversed a pre-midnight poleward boundary intensification (PBI) event distinguished by a stationary Alfvenic curtain of field-aligned precipitation. The MICA sounding rocket (February 2012, Poker Flat Research Range) traveled through irregular precipitation following the passage of a strong westward-travelling surge. Previous modelling of the ionospheric effects of auroral precipitation used a one-dimensional model, TRANSCAR, which had a simplified treatment of electric fields and did not have the benefit of in situ thermal plasma data. This new study uses a new two-dimensional model which self-consistently calculates electric fields to explore both spatial and temporal effects, and compares to thermal plasma observations. A rigorous understanding of the ambient thermal plasma parameters and their effects on the local spacecraft sheath and charging, is required for quantitative interpretation of in situ thermal plasma observations. To complement this TRANSCAR analysis we therefore require a reliable means of interpreting in situ thermal plasma observation. This interpretation depends upon a rigorous plasma sheath model since the ambient ion energy is on the order of the spacecraft's sheath energy. A self-consistent PIC model is used to model the spacecraft sheath, and a test-particle approach then predicts the detector response for a given plasma environment. The model parameters are then modified until agreement is found with the in situ data. We find that for some situations, the thermal plasma parameters are strongly driven by the precipitation at the observation time. For other situations, the previous history of the precipitation at that position can have a stronger
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Vincent, Dayton G.
1994-01-01
This research grant was a revised version of an original proposal. The period of the grant was for three years with a six-month no-cost extension; thus, it was from 20 July 1990 to 19 January 1994. The objectives of the grant were to identify periods and locations of active convection centers, primarily over the Southern Hemisphere tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans; determine reasons for any periodic behavior found in the first objective; identify cases where subtropical jets over the South Pacific persisted for several days and examine the influences of tropical versus extra-tropical mechanisms in maintaining them; obtain estimates of precipitation by Q(sub 1) and Q(sub 2) budgets, including the importance of terms in each of the respective budgets, and compare these estimates to those obtained by other methods; and diagnose the distributions of moisture and precipitable water over the North Atlantic Ocean using routine analyses and satellite microwave data. To accomplish these objectives, we used grant funds to purchase several data sets, including the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) observations of station precipitation, ECMWF WCRP/TOGA archive two analyses for January 1985 - December 1990, ECMWF WMO analyses for January 1980 - December 1987, and OLR data for July 1974 - December 1991. We already had some SSM/I data and GLA analyses from a previous grant. In addition, to improve our computing power, we also used grant funds to purchase an IBM PS/2 with accessories, a NEC laser jet printer, and a microcomputer system for word processing. This report is organized as follows. Our research team is listed first. Section two contains a summary of our significant accomplishments; however, a detailed discussion of research results is not included since this information can be found in the accompanying reprints and preprints. Section three offers some concluding remarks, and a complete bibliographic summary is given in Section four.
Importance of Dry-Season Precipitation to the Water Resources of Monteverde, Costa Rica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guswa, A. J.; Rhodes, A. L.
2005-12-01
Monteverde, Costa Rica harbors montane forests that exemplify the delicate balances among climate, hydrology, habitat, and development. Most of the annual precipitation to this region arrives during the wet season, but the importance of orographic precipitation during the dry and transitional seasons should not be underestimated. Changes in regional land-cover and global climate may lead to reduced precipitation and cloud cover and a subsequent decline in endemic species, and a boom in ecotourism has put stress on water resources. A recent attempt to withdraw water from a local stream led to a standoff between conservationists and business developers, and there is a clear need for hydrologic data and understanding in support of policy. Through signals observed in the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and streamflow, we seek to understand how precipitation from the drier seasons propagates through the hydrologic cycle. In precipitation, δ18O and δ2H are heaviest during the dry and transitional seasons and light during the rainy season, consistent with the condensation mechanisms and degree of rainout typical of these periods. The signal in d-excess indicates a contribution of recycled water to precipitation in Monteverde from late in the rainy season through the dry season. Attenuated versions of these seasonal signals propagate through to the stream samples and provide a means of determining the importance of dry-season precipitation to water resources for the region. Results from six catchments on the leeward slope indicate that the Brillante Gap in the continental divide exerts strong control on the input of orographic precipitation to the region. Disparities in the temporal signals of precipitation and streamflow isotopes indicate non-linear behavior in the hydrologic processes that move water through these catchments.
Climate Variability, Dissolved Organic Carbon, UV Exposure, and Amphibian Decline
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brooks, P. D.; O'Reilly, C. M.; Diamond, S.; Corn, S.; Muths, E.; Tonnessen, K.; Campbell, D. H.
2001-12-01
Increasing levels of UV radiation represent a potential threat to aquatic organisms in a wide range of environments, yet controls on in situ variability on UV exposure are relatively unknown. The primary control on the penetration of UV radiation in surface water environments is the amount of photoreactive dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Consequently, biogeochemical processes that control the cycling of DOC also affect the exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Three years of monitoring UV extinction and DOC composition in Rocky Mountain, Glacier, Sequoia/ Kings Canyon, and Olympic National Parks demonstrate that the amount of fulvic acid DOC is much more important than the total DOC pool in controlling UV attenuation. This photoreactive component of DOC originates primarily in soil, and is subject both to biogeochemical controls (e.g. temperature, moisture, vegetation, soil type) on production, and hydrologic controls on transport to surface water and consequently UV exposure to aquatic organisms. Both of these controls are positively related to precipitation with greater production and transport associated with higher precipitation amounts. For example, an approximately 20 percent reduction in precipitation from 1999 to 2000 resulted in a 27% - 59% reduction in the amount of photoreactive DOC at three sites in Rocky Mountain National Park. These differences in the amount of hydrophobic DOC result in an increase in UV exposure in the aquatic environment by a factor of 2 or more. Implications of these findings for observed patterns of amphibian decline will be discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong
2018-04-01
Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tiwari, A.; Zhe-Kun, Z.
2016-12-01
Investigations of growth-climate relationships are important to understand the response of forest growth and the dendroclimatic reconstructions (Briffa et al., 1998a; Tessier et al., 1997). This also provides crucial information to assess future forest productivity, growth performance, vegetation dynamics and tree species distributions (Thuiller et al., 2005; Tardif et al., 2006). We explored growth climate response of Abies spectabilis, Betula utilis and Picea smithiana at different elevations of same mountain slope from the semi-arid trans-Himalayan zone of central Himalaya (Mustang, Nepal) in order to observe their drought tolerance. The ring width indices were correlated with the instrumental data (1970-2013 AD) from the nearest climate station to observe the growth climate response. Spring season (March-May) moisture was found to be highly critical for radial growth in all species. Further, we compared the basal area increment (BAI) trend among different species as BAI is the strong indicator of growth trend over the conventional detrended tree ring width indices. Our results demonstrated that BAI is rapidly declining for Betula utilis among three species irrespective of being distributed comparatively to the moist region in the mountain indicating that drought tolerance is highly species specific, as an early warning signal of climate change. Since the global climate models disagree on predicting precipitation intensity and seasonality in the coming decades, and more extreme precipitation events are likely worldwide (IPCC 2013), the least drought tolerant species like birch would be threatened to their survival and might decline due to warming induced drought stress which is already seen with rapid growth decline in the recent decades.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Z.; Mace, G. G.; Posselt, D. J.
2017-12-01
As we begin to contemplate the next generation atmospheric observing systems, it will be critically important that we are able to make informed decisions regarding the trade space between scientific capability and the need to keep complexity and cost within definable limits. To explore this trade space as it pertains to understanding key cloud and precipitation processes, we are developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm suite that allows us to arbitrarily define the specifications of candidate observing systems and then explore how the uncertainties in key retrieved geophysical parameters respond to that observing system. MCMC algorithms produce a more complete posterior solution space, and allow for an objective examination of information contained in measurements. In our initial implementation, MCMC experiments are performed to retrieve vertical profiles of cloud and precipitation properties from a spectrum of active and passive measurements collected by aircraft during the ACE Radiation Definition Experiments (RADEX). Focusing on shallow cumulus clouds observed during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology EXperiment (IPHEX), observing systems in this study we consider W and Ka-band radar reflectivity, path-integrated attenuation at those frequencies, 31 and 94 GHz brightness temperatures as well as visible and near-infrared reflectance. By varying the sensitivity and uncertainty of these measurements, we quantify the capacity of various combinations of observations to characterize the physical properties of clouds and precipitation.
Henneges, Carsten; Reed, Catherine; Chen, Yun-Fei; Dell'Agnello, Grazia; Lebrec, Jeremie
2016-01-01
Improved understanding of the pattern of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) would be useful to assist primary care physicians in explaining AD progression to patients and caregivers. To identify the sequence in which cognitive abilities decline in community-dwelling patients with AD. Baseline data were analyzed from 1,495 patients diagnosed with probable AD and a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤ 26 enrolled in the 18-month observational GERAS study. Proportional odds logistic regression models were applied to model MMSE subscores (orientation, registration, attention and concentration, recall, language, and drawing) and the corresponding subscores of the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-cog), using MMSE total score as the index of disease progression. Probabilities of impairment start and full impairment were estimated at each MMSE total score level. From the estimated probabilities for each MMSE subscore as a function of the MMSE total score, the first aspect of cognition to start being impaired was recall, followed by orientation in time, attention and concentration, orientation in place, language, drawing, and registration. For full impairment in subscores, the sequence was recall, drawing, attention and concentration, orientation in time, orientation in place, registration, and language. The sequence of cognitive decline for the corresponding ADAS-cog subscores was remarkably consistent with this pattern. The sequence of cognitive decline in AD can be visualized in an animation using probability estimates for key aspects of cognition. This might be useful for clinicians to set expectations on disease progression for patients and caregivers.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Itahashi, Syuichi; Yumimoto, Keiya; Uno, Itsushi; Hayami, Hiroshi; Fujita, Shin-ichi; Pan, Yuepeng; Wang, Yuesi
2018-02-01
Acidifying species in precipitation can have severe impacts on ecosystems. The chemical composition of precipitation is directly related to the amount of precipitation; accordingly, it is difficult to identify long-term variation in chemical concentrations. The ratio of the nitrate (NO3-) to non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42-) concentration in precipitation on an equivalent basis (hereinafter, Ratio) is a useful index to investigate the relative contributions of these acidifying species. To identify the long-term record of acidifying species in precipitation over East Asia, the region with the highest emissions worldwide, we compiled ground-based observations of the chemical composition of precipitation over China, Korea, and Japan from 2001 to 2015 based on the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The spatial coverage was limited, but additional monitoring data for Japan, southern China, and northern China around Beijing were utilized. The period of analysis was divided into three phases: Phase I (2001-2005), Phase II (2006-2010), and Phase III (2011-2015). The behaviors of NO3- and nss-SO42- concentrations and hence the Ratio in precipitation were related to these precursors. The anthropogenic NOx and SO2 emissions and the NOx / SO2 emission ratio were analyzed. Further, satellite observations of the NO2 and SO2 column density to capture the variation in emissions were applied. We found that the long-term trend in the NO3- concentration in precipitation was not related to the variation in NOx emission and the NO2 column. In comparison, the nss-SO42- concentration in precipitation over China, Korea, and Japan was partially connected to the changes in SO2 emissions from China, but the trends were not significant. The long-term trends of Ratio over China, Korea, and Japan were nearly flat during Phase I, increased significantly during Phase II, and were essentially flat again during Phase III. This variation in Ratio in East Asia clearly
Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA
Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.
2001-01-01
Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.
13C 18O clumping in speleothems: Observations from natural caves and precipitation experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daëron, M.; Guo, W.; Eiler, J.; Genty, D.; Blamart, D.; Boch, R.; Drysdale, R.; Maire, R.; Wainer, K.; Zanchetta, G.
2011-06-01
The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is an important proxy of continental paleoenvironments, because of its sensitivity to variations in cave temperature and drip water δ 18O. Interpreting speleothem δ 18O records in terms of absolute paleotemperatures and δ 18O values of paleo-precipitation requires quantitative separation of the effects of these two parameters, and correcting for possible kinetic isotope fractionation associated with precipitation of calcite out of thermodynamic equilibrium. Carbonate clumped-isotope thermometry, based on measurements of Δ47 (a geochemical variable reflecting the statistical overabundance of 13C 18O bonds in CO 2 evolved from phosphoric acid digestion of carbonate minerals), potentially provides a method for absolute speleothem paleotemperature reconstructions independent of drip water composition. Application of this new technique to karst records is currently limited by the scarcity of published clumped-isotope studies of modern speleothems. The only modern stalagmite reported so far in the literature yielded a lower Δ47 value than expected for equilibrium precipitation, possibly due to kinetic isotope fractionation. Here we report Δ47 values measured in natural speleothems from various cave settings, in carbonate produced by cave precipitation experiments, and in synthetic stalagmite analogs precipitated in controlled laboratory conditions designed to mimic natural cave processes. All samples yield lower Δ47 and heavier δ 18O values than predicted by experimental calibrations of thermodynamic equilibrium in inorganic calcite. The amplitudes of these isotopic disequilibria vary between samples, but there is clear correlation between the amount of Δ47 disequilibrium and that of δ 18O. Even pool carbonates believed to offer excellent conditions for equilibrium precipitation of calcite display out-of-equilibrium δ 18O and Δ47 values, probably inherited from prior degassing within the cave system. In addition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guillod, B. P.; Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.
2013-12-01
The feedback between soil moisture and precipitation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed feedbacks assume a control of soil moisture on the flux partitioning (i.e. the Evaporative Fraction, EF) at the land surface, which then influences precipitation. Our study (Guillod et al., in prep) addresses the poorly understood link between EF and precipitation by investigating the impact of before-noon EF on the frequency of afternoon precipitation over the contiguous US. We analyze remote sensing data products (EF from GLEAM, Miralles et al. 2011; radar precipitation from NEXRAD), FLUXNET station data, and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). While most datasets agree on the existence of a region of positive relationship between between EF and precipitation in the Eastern US (e.g. Findell et al. 2011), observation-based estimates indicate a stronger relationship in the Western US, which is not found in NARR. Investigating these differences, we find that much of these relationships can be explained by precipitation persistence alone, with ambiguous results on the additional role of EF. Regional analyses reveal contrasting mechanisms over different regions which fit well with the known distribution of vegetation cover and soil moisture-climate regimes. Over the Eastern US, our analyses suggest that the EF-precipitation feedback, if present, takes place on a short day-to-day time scale, where interception evaporation drives the relationship rather than soil moisture, due to the high forest cover and the wet regime. Over the Western US, the impact of EF on convection triggering is additionally linked to soil moisture variations, owing to the soil moisture-limited climate regime. References: Findell, K. L., et al., 2011: Probability of afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high evaporation. Nature Geosci., 4 (7), 434-439, doi:10.1038/ngeo1174, URL http
Host-environment mismatches associated with subalpine fir decline in Colorado
Robin M. Reich; John E. Lundquist; Kristina Hughes
2016-01-01
Subalpine fir decline (SFD) has killed more trees in Coloradoâs high elevation forests than any other insect or disease problem. The widespread nature of this disorder suggests that the cause involves climatic factors. We examined the influence of varying combinations of average annual temperature and precipitation on the incidence and distribution of SFD. Climatic...
Overstreet, Matthew; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cain, James W.
2014-01-01
The decline of desert bighorn sheep on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (KNWR) beginning in 2003 stimulated efforts to determine the factors limiting survival and recruitment. We 1) determined pregnancy rates, body fat, and estimated survival rates of adults and lambs; 2) investigated the relationship between precipitation, forage conditions, previous year’s reproductive success, and adult body condition; 3) assessed the relative influence of body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage characteristics on apparent survival of lambs; and 4) determined the prevalence of disease. To assess the influence of potential limiting factors on female desert bighorn sheep on the KNWR, we modeled percent body fat of adult females as a function of previous year’s reproductive effort, age class, and forage conditions (i.e., seasonal NDVI and seasonal precipitation). In addition, we assessed the relative influence of the body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage conditions (NDVI) on length of time a lamb was observed at heel.Adult female survival was high in both 2009 (0.90 [SE = 0.05]) and 2010 (0.96 [SE = 0.03]). Apparent lamb survival to 6 months of age was 0.23 (SE = 0.05) during 2009-2010 and 0.21 (SE = 0.05) during 2010-2011 lambing seasons. Mean body fat for adult females was 12.03% (SE = 0.479) in 2009-2010 and 11.11% (SE= 0.486) in 2010-2011 and was not significantly different between years. Pregnancy rate was 100% in 2009 and 97.5% in 2010.Models containing the previous year’s reproductive effort, spring NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort and spring precipitation best approximated data on percent body fat in adult females in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, the two highest-ranking models included the previous year’s reproductive effort and winter NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort, and winter and spring NDVI. None of the models assessing the influence of maternal body fat, precipitation, or forage conditions were
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Asoka, Akarsh; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Mishra, Vimal
2017-01-01
The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.
van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Serbruyns, Leen; Solesio-Jofre, Elena; Meesen, Raf; Cuypers, Koen; Swinnen, Stephan P
2017-01-01
Declines in both cortical grey matter and bimanual coordination performance are evident in healthy ageing. However, the relationship between ageing, bimanual performance, and grey matter loss remains unclear, particularly across the whole adult lifespan. Therefore, participants (N = 93, range 20-80 years) performed a complex Bimanual Tracking Task, and structural brain images were obtained using magnetic resonance imaging. Analyses revealed that age correlated negatively with task performance. Voxel-based morphometry analysis revealed that age was associated with grey matter declines in task-relevant cortical areas and that grey matter in these areas was negatively associated with task performance. However, no evidence for a mediating effect of grey matter in age-related bimanual performance decline was observed. We propose a new hypothesis that functional compensation may account for the observed absence of mediation, which is in line with the observed pattern of increased inter-individual variance in performance with age.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldberg, R. A.; Jackman, C. H.; Backer, D. N.; Herrero, F. A.
1994-01-01
Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HRE's) can provide a major source of energy affecting mesospheric constituents and ionization. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced near the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness, and frequency of occurrence as the solar cycle declines. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other energy sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REP's) and auroral precipitation. The energy deposition data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska, in May 1990 during a modest HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Using a NASA two dimensional model, significant enhancement of OH and depletion of O3 at 75 +/- 10 km altitude from the measured radiation are found. Estimates of enhanced effects were made for more intense HRE events, as might be expected during solar minimum. By causing O3 depletion, the electron precipitation can also regulate the penetration of solar UV radiation, which could affect the thermal properties of the mesosphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Pelto, Mauri; Aschwanden, Andy
2018-03-01
Assessing and modeling precipitation in mountainous areas remains a major challenge in glacier mass balance modeling. Observations are typically scarce and reanalysis data and similar climate products are too coarse to accurately capture orographic effects. Here we use the linear theory of orographic precipitation model (LT model) to downscale winter precipitation from a regional climate model over the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest ice masses in North America (>4000 km2), for the period 1979-2013. The LT model is physically-based yet computationally efficient, combining airflow dynamics and simple cloud microphysics. The resulting 1 km resolution precipitation fields show substantially reduced precipitation on the northeastern portion of the icefield compared to the southwestern side, a pattern that is not well captured in the coarse resolution (20 km) WRF data. Net snow accumulation derived from the LT model precipitation agrees well with point observations across the icefield. To investigate the robustness of the LT model results, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments varying hydrometeor fall speeds, the horizontal resolution of the underlying grid, and the source of the meteorological forcing data. The resulting normalized spatial precipitation pattern is similar for all sensitivity experiments, but local precipitation amounts vary strongly, with greatest sensitivity to variations in snow fall speed. Results indicate that the LT model has great potential to provide improved spatial patterns of winter precipitation for glacier mass balance modeling purposes in complex terrain, but ground observations are necessary to constrain model parameters to match total amounts.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Janapati, Jayalakshmi; seela, Balaji Kumar; Reddy M., Venkatrami; Reddy K., Krishna; Lin, Pay-Liam; Rao T., Narayana; Liu, Chian-Yi
2017-06-01
Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics in before landfall (BLF) and after landfall (ALF) of three tropical cyclones (JAL, THANE, and NILAM) induced precipitations are investigated by using a laser-based (PARticleSIze and VELocity - PARSIVEL) disdrometer at two different locations [Kadapa (14.47°N, 78.82°E) and Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E)] in semi-arid region of southern India. In both BLF and ALF precipitations of these three cyclones, convective precipitations have higher mass weighted mean diameter (Dm) and lower normalized intercept parameter (log10Nw) values than stratiform precipitations. The radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations (Z=A*Rb) showed distinct variations in BLF and ALF precipitations of three cyclones. BLF precipitation of JAL cyclone has a higher Dm than ALF precipitation. Whereas, for THANE and NILAM cyclones ALF precipitations have higher Dm than BLF. The Dm values of three cyclones (both in BLF and ALF) are smaller than the Dm values of the other (Atlantic and Pacific) oceanic cyclones. Interaction of different regions (eyewall, inner rainbands, and outer rainbands) of cyclones with the environment and underlying surface led to RSD variations between BLF and ALF precipitations through different microphysical (collision-coalescence, breakup, evaporation, and riming) processes. The immediate significance of the present work is that (i) it contributes to our understanding of cyclone RSD in BLF and ALF precipitations, and (ii) it provides the useful information for quantitative estimation of rainfall from Doppler weather radar observations.
Steep declines in atmospheric base cations in regions of Europe and North America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hedin, Lars O.; Granat, Lennart; Likens, Gene E.; Adri Buishand, T.; Galloway, James N.; Butler, Thomas J.; Rodhe, Henning
1994-01-01
HUMAN activities have caused marked changes in atmospheric chemistry over large regions of Europe and North America. Although considerable attention has been paid to the effects of changes in the deposition of acid anions (such as sulphate and nitrate) on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems1-7, little is known about whether the concentrations of basic components of the atmosphere have changed over time8,9 and what the biogeochemical consequences of such potential changes might be. In particular, there has been some controversy8-12 as to whether declines in base-cation deposition have countered effects of recent reductions in SO2emission. Here we report evidence for steep declines in the atmospheric concentrations of base cations (sum of non-sea-salt Ca2+, Mg2+, K+ and Na+) over the past 10 to 26 years from high-quality precipitation chemistry records in Europe and North America. To varying but generally significant degrees, these base-cation trends have offset recent reductions in sulphate deposition in the regions examined. The observed trends seem to be ecologically important on decadal timescales, and support earlier contentions8-10 that declines in the deposition of base cations may have contributed to increased sensitivity of poorly buffered ecosystems.
McSwain, Kristen Bukowski; Strickland, A.G.
2010-01-01
Groundwater conditions in Brunswick County, North Carolina, have been monitored continuously since 2000 through the operation and maintenance of groundwater-level observation wells in the surficial, Castle Hayne, and Peedee aquifers of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system. Groundwater-resource conditions for the Brunswick County area were evaluated by relating the normal range (25th to 75th percentile) monthly mean groundwater-level and precipitation data for water years 2001 to 2008 to median monthly mean groundwater levels and monthly sum of daily precipitation for water year 2008. Summaries of precipitation and groundwater conditions for the Brunswick County area and hydrographs and statistics of continuous groundwater levels collected during the 2008 water year are presented in this report. Groundwater levels varied by aquifer and geographic location within Brunswick County, but were influenced by drought conditions and groundwater withdrawals. Water levels were normal in two of the eight observation wells and below normal in the remaining six wells. Seasonal Kendall trend analysis performed on more than 9 years of monthly mean groundwater-level data collected in an observation well located within the Brunswick County well field indicated there is a strong downward trend, with water levels declining at a rate of about 2.2 feet per year.
Cresswell, James E; Desneux, Nicolas; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis
2012-06-01
Honey bees are important pollinators of both crops and wild plants. Pesticide regimes that threaten their sustainability should therefore be assessed. As an example, evidence that the agricultural use of neonicotinoid pesticides is a cause of the recently observed declines in honey bees is examined. The aim is to define exacting demographic conditions for a detrimental factor to precipitate a population decline, and Hill's epidemiological 'causality criteria' are employed as a structured process for making an expert judgement about the proposition that trace dietary neonicotinoids in nectar and pollen cause population declines in honey bees. In spite of the absence of decisive experimental results, the analysis shows that, while the proposition is a substantially justified conjecture in the context of current knowledge, it is also substantially contraindicated by a wide variety of circumstantial epidemiological evidence. It is concluded that dietary neonicotinoids cannot be implicated in honey bee declines, but this position is provisional because important gaps remain in current knowledge. Avenues for further investigations to resolve this longstanding uncertainty are therefore identified. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roberto, N.; Baldini, L.; Facheris, L.; Chandrasekar, V.
2014-07-01
Several satellite missions employing X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) have been activated to provide high-resolution images of normalized radar cross-sections (NRCS) on land and ocean for numerous applications. Rainfall and wind affect the sea surface roughness and consequently the NRCS from the combined effects of corrugation due to impinging raindrops and surface wind. X-band frequencies are sensitive to precipitation: intense convective cells result in irregularly bright and dark patches in SAR images, masking changes in surface NRCS. Several works have modeled SAR images of intense precipitation over land; less adequately investigated is the precipitation effect over the sea surface. These images are analyzed in this study by modeling both the scattering and attenuation of radiation by hydrometeors in the rain cells and the NRCS surface changes using weather radar precipitation estimates as input. The reconstruction of X-band SAR returns in precipitating clouds is obtained by the joint utilization of volume reflectivity and attenuation, the latter estimated by coupling ground-based radar measurements and an electromagnetic model to predict the sea surface NRCS. Radar signatures of rain cells were investigated using X-band SAR images collected from the COSMO-SkyMed constellation of the Italian Space Agency. Two case studies were analyzed. The first occurred over the sea off the coast of Louisiana (USA) in summer 2010 with COSMO-SkyMed (CSK®) ScanSar mode monitoring of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Simultaneously, the NEXRAD S-band Doppler radar (KLIX) located in New Orleans was scanning the same portion of ocean. The second case study occurred in Liguria (Italy) on November 4, 2011, during an extraordinary flood event. The same events were observed by the Bric della Croce C-band dual polarization radar located close to Turin (Italy). The polarimetric capability of the ground radars utilized allows discrimination of the composition of the precipitation
Observation of Long Ionospheric Recoveries from Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohammadpour Salut, M.; Cohen, M.
2015-12-01
Lightning strokes induces lower ionospheric nighttime disturbances which can be detected through Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing via at least two means: (1) direct heating and ionization, known as an Early event, and (2) triggered precipitation of energetic electrons from the radiation belts, known as Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP). For each, the ionospheric recover time is typically a few minutes or less. A small class of Early events have been identified as having unusually long ionospheric recoveries (10s of minutes), with the underlying mechanism still in question. Our study shows for the first time that some LEP events also demonstrate unusually long recovery. The VLF events were detected by visual inspection of the recorded data in both the North-South and East-West magnetic fields. Data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are used to determine the location and peak current of the lightning responsible for each lightning-associated VLF perturbation. LEP or Early VLF events are determined by measuring the time delay between the causative lightning discharges and the onset of all lightning-associated perturbations. LEP events typically possess an onset delay greater than ~ 200 msec following the causative lightning discharges, while the onset of Early VLF events is time-aligned (<20 msec) with the lightning return stroke. Nonducted LEP events are distinguished from ducted events based on the location of the causative lightning relative to the precipitation region. From 15 March to 20 April and 15 October to 15 November 2011, a total of 385 LEP events observed at Indiana, Montana, Colorado and Oklahoma VLF sites, on the NAA, NLK and NML transmitter signals. 46 of these events exhibited a long recovery. It has been found that the occurrence rate of ducted long recovery LEP events is higher than nonducted. Of the 46 long recovery LEP events, 33 events were induced by ducted whistlers, and 13 events were associated with
Precipitation Records-HDSC/OWP
resources and services. Greatest observed point precipitation values for the world and the USA US Comparison of the greatest point precipitation values for the world and the USA. World records (map, table) USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gaines, E. E.; Imhof, W. L.; Voss, H. D.; Reagan, J. B.
1983-07-01
During the solar eclipse of 26 February 1979, the P78-1 satellite passed near Red Lake, Ontario, at an altitude of about 600 km. On two consecutive orbits spanning the time of total eclipse, energetic electrons were measured with two silicon solid state detector spectrometers having excellent energy and angular resolution. Significant fluxes of precipitating electrons were observed near the path of totality. Comparisons of flux intensities and energy spectra with those measured from a Nike Orion and two Nike Tomahawk rockets launched near Red Lake before and during total eclipse give good agreement and indicate that the electron precipitation was relatively uniform for more than an hour and over a broad geographical area.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loftus, Adrian; Tsay, Si-Chee; Nguyen, Xuan Anh
2016-04-01
droplet size and number concentration, but also the spectral width of the cloud droplet size distribution, the 3M scheme is well suited to simulate aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions within a three-dimensional regional cloud model. Moreover, the additional variability predicted on the hydrometeor distributions provides beneficial input for forward models to link the simulated microphysical processes with observations as well as to assess both ground-based and satellite retrieval methods. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the 7 South East Asian Studies / Biomass-burning Aerosols and Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment (7-SEAS/BASELInE) operations during the spring of 2013. Preliminary analyses of pre-monsoon Sc system lifecycles observed during the first-ever deployment of a ground-based cloud radar to northern Vietnam will be also be presented. Initial results from GCE model simulations of these Sc using double-moment and the new 3M bulk microphysics schemes under various aerosol loadings will be used to showcase the 3M scheme as well as provide insight into how the impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation processes in stratocumulus over land may manifest themselves in simulated remote-sensing signals. Applications and future work involving ongoing 7-SEAS campaigns aimed at improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions of will also be discussed.
Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Gross, Martin
2012-01-01
High resolution pollen and dinoflagellate analyses were performed on a continuous 98-cm-long core from Tortonian deposits of Lake Pannon in the Styrian Basin in Austria. The sample distance of 1-cm corresponds to a resolution of roughly one decade, allowing insights into environmental and climatic changes over a millennium of Late Miocene time. Shifts in lake level, surface water productivity on a decadal- to centennial-scale can be explained by variations of rainfall during the Tortonian climatic optimum. Related to negative fine scale shifts of mean annual precipitation, shoreline vegetation belts reacted in an immediate replacement of Poaceae by Cyperaceae as dominant grasses in the marshes fringing the lake. In contrast to such near-synchronous ecosystem-responses to precipitation, a delayed lake level rise of 4–6 decades is evident in the hydrological budget of Lake Pannon. This transgression, caused by a precipitation increase up to > 1200 mm/yr, resulted in a complete dieback of marshes. Simultaneously, “open-water” dinoflagellates, such as Impagidinium, took over in the brackish lagoon and fresh water dinoflagellates disappeared. As soon as the rainfall switched back to moderate levels of ~ 1100–1200 mm/yr, the rise of the lake level slowed down, the marsh plants could keep up again and the former vegetation belts became re-established. Thus, mean annual precipitation, more than temperature, was the main driving force for high-frequency fluctuations in the Tortonian wetlands and surface water conditions of Lake Pannon. Such high resolution studies focusing on Tortonian decadal to centennial climate change will be crucial to test climate models which try to compare the Tortonian models with predictions for future climate change. PMID:23576820
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takbiri, Z.; Ebtehaj, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Kirstetter, P.
2017-12-01
Improving satellite retrieval of precipitation requires increased understanding of its passive microwave signature over different land surfaces. Passive microwave signals over snow-covered surfaces are notoriously difficult to interpret because they record both emission from the land below and absorption/scattering from the liquid/ice crystals. Using data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite, we demonstrate that the microwave brightness temperatures of rain and snowfall shifts from a scattering to an emission regime from summer to winter, due to expansion of the less emissive snow cover underneath. We present evidence that the combination of low- (10-19 GHz) and high-frequency (89-166 GHz) channels provides the maximum amount of information for snowfall detection. The study also examines a prognostic nearest neighbor matching method for the detection of precipitation and its phase from passive microwave observations using GPM data. The nearest neighbor uses the weighted Euclidean distance metric to search through an a priori database that is populated with coincident GPM radiometer and radar data as well as ancillary snow cover fraction. The results demonstrate prognostic capabilities of the proposed method in detection of terrestrial snowfall. At the global scale, the average probability of hit and false alarm reaches to 0.80 and remains below 0.10, respectively. Surprisingly, the results show that the snow cover may help to better detect precipitation as the detection rate of terrestrial precipitation is increased from 0.75 (no snow cover) to 0.84 (snow-covered surfaces). For solid precipitation, this increased rate of detection is larger than its liquid counterpart by almost 8%. The main reasons are found to be related to the multi-frequency capabilities of the nearest neighbor matching that can properly isolate the atmospheric signal from the background emission and the fact that the precipitation can exhibit an emission-like (warmer
Declining Counseling Research in Counseling Psychology Journals: Is the Sky Falling?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lichtenberg, James W.
2011-01-01
Scheel et al. note a rather precipitous decline over the past 30 years in the number and proportion of counseling-related research articles appearing in "Journal of Counseling Psychology" ("JCP") and "The Counseling Psychologist" ("TCP"). Certainly, counseling psychology as a field has changed over its 65-year history, and a great deal of that…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kozyra, J. U.; Brandt, P. C.; Cattell, C. A.; Clilverd, M.; de Zeeuw, D.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Frey, H. U.; Kavanagh, A. J.; Liemohn, M. W.; Lu, G.; Mende, S. B.; Paxton, L. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Soraas, F.
2010-12-01
Energetic ions and electrons that precipitate into the upper atmosphere from sources throughout geospace carry the influences of space weather disturbances deeper into the atmosphere, possibly contributing to climate variability. The three-dimensional atmospheric effects of these precipitating particles are a function of the energy and species of the particles, lifetimes of reactive species generated during collisions in the atmosphere, the nature of the driving space weather disturbance, and the large-scale transport properties (meteorology) of the atmosphere in the region of impact. Unraveling the features of system-level coupling between solar magnetic variability, space weather and stratospheric dynamics requires a global view of the precipitation, along with its temporal and spatial variation. However, observations of particle precipitation at the system level are sparse and incomplete requiring they be combined with other observations and with large-scale models to provide the global context that is needed to accelerate progress. We compare satellite and ground-based observations of geospace conditions and energetic precipitation (at ring current, radiation belt and auroral energies) to a simulation of the geospace environment during 21-22 January 2005 by the BATS-R-US MHD model coupled with a self-consistent ring current solution. The aim is to explore the extent to which regions of particle precipitation track global magnetic field distortions and ways in which global models enhance our understanding of linkages between solar wind drivers and evolution of energetic particle precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Aoqi; Fu, Yunfei; Chen, Yilun; Liu, Guosheng; Zhang, Xiangdong
2018-04-01
The distribution and influence of precipitation over the southern Himalayas have been investigated on regional and global scales. However, previous studies have been limited by the insufficient emphasis on the precipitation triggers or the lack of droplet size distribution (DSD) data. Here, precipitating systems were identified using Global Precipitation Mission dual-frequency radar data, and then categorized into five classes according to surface flow from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim data. The surface flow is introduced to indicate the precipitation triggers, which is validated in this study. Using case and statistical analysis, we show that the precipitating systems with different surface flow had different precipitation characteristics, including spatio-temporal features, reflectivity profile, DSD, and rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the results show that the source of the surface flow influences the intensity and DSD of precipitation. The terrain exerts different impacts on the precipitating systems of five categories, leading to various distributions of precipitation characteristics over the southern Himalayas. Our results suggest that the introduction of surface flow and DSD for precipitating systems provides insight into the complex precipitation of the southern Himalayas. The different characteristics of precipitating systems may be caused by the surface flow. Therefore, future study on the orographic precipitations should take account the impact of the surface flow and its relevant dynamic mechanism.
Precipitation-driven carbon balance controls survivorship of desert biocrust mosses.
Coe, Kirsten K; Belnap, Jayne; Sparks, Jed P
2012-07-01
Precipitation patterns including the magnitude, timing, and seasonality of rainfall are predicted to undergo substantial alterations in arid regions in the future, and desert organisms may be more responsive to such changes than to shifts in only mean annual rainfall. Soil biocrust communities (consisting of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mosses) are ubiquitous to desert ecosystems, play an array of ecological roles, and display a strong sensitivity to environmental changes. Crust mosses are particularly responsive to changes in precipitation and exhibit rapid declines in biomass and mortality following the addition of small rainfall events. Further, loss of the moss component in biocrusts leads to declines in crust structure and function. In this study, we sought to understand the physiological responses of the widespread and often dominant biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to alterations in rainfall. Moss samples were collected during all four seasons and exposed to two rainfall event sizes and three desiccation period (DP) lengths. A carbon balance approach based on single precipitation events was used to define the carbon gain or loss during a particular hydration period. Rainfall event size was the strongest predictor of carbon balance, and the largest carbon gains were associated with the largest precipitation events. In contrast, small precipitation events resulted in carbon deficits for S. caninervis. Increasing the length of the DP prior to an event resulted in reductions in carbon balance, probably because of the increased energetic cost of hydration following more intense bouts of desiccation. The season of collection (i.e., physiological status of the moss) modulated these responses, and the effects of DP and rainfall on carbon balance were different in magnitude (and often in sign) for different seasons. In particular, S. caninervis displayed higher carbon balances in the winter than in the summer, even for events of identical size. Overall, our results
Darby, B.J.; Housman, D.C.; Zaki, A.M.; Shamout, Y.; Adl, S.M.; Belnap, J.; Neher, D.A.
2006-01-01
Biological soil crusts are diverse assemblages of bacteria, cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, lichens, and mosses that cover much of arid land soils. The objective of this study was to quantify protozoa associated with biological soil crusts and test the response of protozoa to increased temperature and precipitation as is predicted by some global climate models. Protozoa were more abundant when associated with cyanobacteria/lichen crusts than with cyanobacteria crusts alone. Amoebae, flagellates, and ciliates originating from the Colorado Plateau desert (cool desert, primarily winter precipitation) declined 50-, 10-, and 100-fold, respectively, when moved in field mesocosms to the Chihuahuan Desert (hot desert, primarily summer rain). However, this was not observed in protozoa collected from the Chihuahuan Desert and moved to the Sonoran desert (hot desert, also summer rain, but warmer than Chihuahuan Desert). Protozoa in culture began to encyst at 37??C. Cysts survived the upper end of daily temperatures (37-55??C), and could be stimulated to excyst if temperatures were reduced to 15??C or lower. Results from this study suggest that cool desert protozoa are influenced negatively by increased summer precipitation during excessive summer temperatures, and that desert protozoa may be adapted to a specific desert's temperature and precipitation regime. ?? 2006 by the International Society of Protistologists.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Qing; Bindlish, Rajat; Cosh, Michael H.; Crow, Wade T.; deJeu, Richard; DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Huffman, George J.; Jackson, Thomas J.
2011-01-01
The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; deSilva, Arlindo M.
2000-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.
1999-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a 1+1D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the 1+1D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSW rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.
Decline of Yangtze River water and sediment discharge: Impact from natural and anthropogenic changes
Yang, S. L.; Xu, K. H.; Milliman, J. D.; Yang, H. F.; Wu, C. S.
2015-01-01
The increasing impact of both climatic change and human activities on global river systems necessitates an increasing need to identify and quantify the various drivers and their impacts on fluvial water and sediment discharge. Here we show that mean Yangtze River water discharge of the first decade after the closing of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (2003–2012) was 67 km3/yr (7%) lower than that of the previous 50 years (1950–2002), and 126 km3/yr less compared to the relatively wet period of pre-TGD decade (1993–2002). Most (60–70%) of the decline can be attributed to decreased precipitation, the remainder resulting from construction of reservoirs, improved water-soil conservation and increased water consumption. Mean sediment flux decreased by 71% between 1950–1968 and the post-TGD decade, about half of which occurred prior to the pre-TGD decade. Approximately 30% of the total decline and 65% of the decline since 2003 can be attributed to the TGD, 5% and 14% of these declines to precipitation change, and the remaining to other dams and soil conservation within the drainage basin. These findings highlight the degree to which changes in riverine water and sediment discharge can be related with multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors. PMID:26206169
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, A.; Chen, S.; Fan, S.; Min, C.
2017-12-01
Precipitation is one of the basic elements of regional and global climate change. Not only does the precipitation have a great impact on the earth's hydrosphere, but also plays a crucial role in the global energy balance. S-band ground-based dual-polarization radar has the excellent performance of identifying the different phase states of precipitation, which can dramatically improve the accuracy of hail identification and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). However, the ground-based radar cannot measure the precipitation in mountains, sparsely populated plateau, desert and ocean because of the ground-based radar void. The Unites States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) have launched the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) for almost three years. GPM is equipped with a GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and a Dual-frequency (Ku- and Ka-band) Precipitation Radar (DPR) that covers the globe between 65°S and 65°N. The main parameters and the detection method of DPR are different from those of ground-based radars, thus, the DPR's reliability and capability need to be investigated and evaluated by the ground-based radar. This study compares precipitation derived from the ground-based radar measurement to that derived from the DPR's observations. The ground-based radar is a S-band dual-polarization radar deployed near an airport in the west of Zhuhai city. The ground-based quantitative precipitation estimates are with a high resolution of 1km×1km×6min. It shows that this radar covers the whole Pearl River Delta of China, including Hong Kong and Macao. In order to quantify the DPR precipitation quantification capabilities relative to the S-band radar, statistical metrics used in this study are as follows: the difference (Dif) between DPR and the S-band radar observation, root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC). Additionally, Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roman, J.
2015-12-01
The IPCC 5th Assessment found that the predicted warming of 1oC would increase the risk of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. Weather extremes, like floods, have shown the vulnerability and susceptibility society has to these extreme weather events, through impacts such as disruption of food production, water supply, health, and damage of infrastructure. This paper examines a new way of near-real time forecasting of precipitation. A 10-year statistical climatological relationship was derived between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation by using the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder daily gridded PWV product and the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission daily gridded precipitation total. Forecasting precipitation estimates in real time is dire for flood monitoring and disaster management. Near real time PWV observations from AIRS on Aqua are available through the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center. In addition, PWV observations are available through direct broadcast from the NASA Suomi-NPP ATMS/CrIS instrument, the operational follow on to AIRS. The derived climatological relationship can be applied to create precipitation estimates in near real time by utilizing the direct broadcasting capabilities currently available in the CONUS region. The application of this relationship will be characterized through case-studies by using near real-time NASA AIRS Science Team v6 PWV products and ground-based SuomiNet GPS to estimate the current precipitation potential; the max amount of precipitation that can occur based on the moisture availability. Furthermore, the potential contribution of using the direct broadcasting of the NUCAPS ATMS/CrIS PWV products will be demonstrated. The analysis will highlight the advantages of applying this relationship in near-real time for flash flood monitoring and risk management. Relevance to the NWS River Forecast Centers will be discussed.
Local short-duration precipitation extremes in Sweden: observations, forecasts and projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olsson, Jonas; Berg, Peter; Simonsson, Lennart
2015-04-01
Local short-duration precipitation extremes (LSPEs) are a key driver of hydrological hazards, notably in steep catchments with thin soils and in urban environments. The triggered floodings, landslides, etc., have large consequences for society in terms of both economy and health. Accurate estimations of LSPEs on both climatological time-scales (past, present, future) and in real-time is thus of great importance for improved hydrological predictions as well as design of constructions and infrastructure affected by hydrological fluxes. Analysis of LSPEs is, however, associated with various limitations and uncertainties. These are to a large degree associated with the small-scale nature of the meteorological processes behind LSPEs and the associated requirements on observation sensors as well as model descriptions. Some examples of causes for the limitations involved are given in the following. - Observations: High-resolution data sets available for LSPE analyses are often limited to either relatively long series from one or a few stations or relatively short series from larger station networks. Radar data have excellent resolutions in both time and space but the estimated local precipitation intensity is still highly uncertain. New and promising techniques (e.g. microwave links) are still in their infancy. - Weather forecasts (short-range): Although forecasts with the required spatial resolution for potential generation of LSPEs (around 2-4 km) are becoming operationally available, the actual forecast precision of LSPEs is largely unknown. Forecasted LSPEs may be displaced in time or, more critically, in space which strongly affects the possibility to assess hydrological risk. - Climate projections: The spatial resolution of the current RCM generation (around 25 km) is not sufficient for proper description of LSPEs. Statistical post-processing (i.e. downscaling) is required which adds substantial uncertainty to the final result. Ensemble generation of sufficiently
An Ultra-high Resolution Synthetic Precipitation Data for Ungauged Sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Hong-Joong; Choi, Kyung-Min; Oh, Jai-Ho
2018-05-01
Despite the enormous damage caused by record heavy rainfall, the amount of precipitation in areas without observation points cannot be known precisely. One way to overcome these difficulties is to estimate meteorological data at ungauged sites. In this study, we have used observation data over Seoul city to calculate high-resolution (250-meter resolution) synthetic precipitation over a 10-year (2005-2014) period. Furthermore, three cases are analyzed by evaluating the rainfall intensity and performing statistical analysis over the 10-year period. In the case where the typhoon "Meari" passed to the west coast during 28-30 June 2011, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.93 for seven validation points, which implies that the temporal correlation between the observed precipitation and synthetic precipitation was very good. It can be confirmed that the time series of observation and synthetic precipitation in the period almost completely matches the observed rainfall. On June 28-29, 2011, the estimation of 10 to 30 mm h-1 of continuous strong precipitation was correct. In addition, it is shown that the synthetic precipitation closely follows the observed precipitation for all three cases. Statistical analysis of 10 years of data reveals a very high correlation coefficient between synthetic precipitation and observed rainfall (0.86). Thus, synthetic precipitation data show good agreement with the observations. Therefore, the 250-m resolution synthetic precipitation amount calculated in this study is useful as basic data in weather applications, such as urban flood detection.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.
2017-11-01
In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh
2015-04-01
Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest
Potential causes for amphibian declines in Puerto Rico
Burrowes, P.A.; Joglar, R.L.; Green, David E.
2004-01-01
We monitored 11 populations of eight species of Eleutherodactylus in Puerto Rico from 1989 through 2001. We determined relative abundance of active frogs along transects established in the Caribbean National Forest (El Yunque), Carite Forest, San Lorenzo, and in the vicinity of San Juan. Three species (Eleutherodactylus karlschmidti, E. jasperi, and E. eneidae) are presumed to be extinct and eight populations of six different species of endemic Eleutherodactylus are significantly declining at elevations above 400 m. Of the many suspected causes of amphibian declines around the world, we focused on climate change and disease. Temperature and precipitation data from 1970a??2000 were analyzed to determine the general pattern of oscillations and deviations that could be correlated with amphibian declines. We examined a total of 106 tissues taken from museum specimens collected from 1961a??1978 and from live frogs in 2000. We found chytrid fungi in two species collected at El Yunque as early as 1976, this is the first report of chytrid fungus in the Caribbean. Analysis of weather data indicates a significant warming trend and an association between years with extended periods of drought and the decline of amphibians in Puerto Rico. The 1970's and 1990's, which represent the periods of amphibian extirpations and declines, were significantly drier than average. We suggest a possible synergistic interaction between drought and the pathological effect of the chytrid fungus on amphibian populations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy
Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lussana, Cristian; Saloranta, Tuomo; Skaugen, Thomas; Magnusson, Jan; Tveito, Ole Einar; Andersen, Jess
2018-02-01
The conventional climate gridded datasets based on observations only are widely used in atmospheric sciences; our focus in this paper is on climate and hydrology. On the Norwegian mainland, seNorge2 provides high-resolution fields of daily total precipitation for applications requiring long-term datasets at regional or national level, where the challenge is to simulate small-scale processes often taking place in complex terrain. The dataset constitutes a valuable meteorological input for snow and hydrological simulations; it is updated daily and presented on a high-resolution grid (1 km of grid spacing). The climate archive goes back to 1957. The spatial interpolation scheme builds upon classical methods, such as optimal interpolation and successive-correction schemes. An original approach based on (spatial) scale-separation concepts has been implemented which uses geographical coordinates and elevation as complementary information in the interpolation. seNorge2 daily precipitation fields represent local precipitation features at spatial scales of a few kilometers, depending on the station network density. In the surroundings of a station or in dense station areas, the predictions are quite accurate even for intense precipitation. For most of the grid points, the performances are comparable to or better than a state-of-the-art pan-European dataset (E-OBS), because of the higher effective resolution of seNorge2. However, in very data-sparse areas, such as in the mountainous region of southern Norway, seNorge2 underestimates precipitation because it does not make use of enough geographical information to compensate for the lack of observations. The evaluation of seNorge2 as the meteorological forcing for the seNorge snow model and the DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) rainfall-runoff model shows that both models have been able to make profitable use of seNorge2, partly because of the automatic calibration procedure they incorporate for precipitation. The seNorge2
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Atlas, D. (Editor); Thiele, O. W. (Editor)
1981-01-01
Global climate, agricultural uses for precipitation information, hydrological uses for precipitation, severe thunderstorms and local weather, global weather are addressed. Ground truth measurement, visible and infrared techniques, microwave radiometry and hybrid precipitation measurements, and spaceborne radar are discussed.
Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.
2013-09-01
We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.
Precipitation Characteristics in West and East Africa from Satellite and in Situ Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dezfuli, Amin K.; Ichoku, Charles M.; Mohr, Karen I.; Huffman, George J.
2017-01-01
Using in situ data, three precipitation classes are identified for rainy seasons of West and East Africa: weak convective rainfall (WCR), strong convective rainfall (SCR), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).Nearly 75% of the total seasonal precipitation is produced by the SCR and MCSs, even though they represent only 8% of the rain events. Rain events in East Africa tend to have a longer duration and lower intensity than in West Africa, reflecting different characteristics of the SCR and MCS events in these two regions. Surface heating seems to be the primary convection trigger for the SCR, particularly in East Africa, whereas the WCR requires a dynamical trigger such as low-level convergence. The data are used to evaluate the performance of the recently launched Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG)project. The IMERG-based precipitation shows significant improvement over its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), particularly in capturing the MCSs, due to its improved temporal resolution.
Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tu, W.; Selesnick, R. S.; Li, X.; Looper, M. D.
2009-12-01
Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a Drift-Diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drifts and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons detected by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The Drift-Diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different types of magnitude were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ~0.5 to 3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storm and at L shells ranging from L=3.5 to L=6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). They are a small storm and a moderate storm in the current solar minimum and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of energetic radiation belt electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies, over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron lifetimes for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Dong-In; Kim, Dong-Kyun; Kim, Ji-Hyeon; Kang, Yunhee; Kim, Hyeonjoon
2017-04-01
During a summer monsoon season each year, severe weather phenomena caused by front, mesoscale convective systems, or typhoons often occur in the southern Korean Peninsula where is mostly comprised of complex high mountains. These areas play an important role in controlling formation, amount, and distribution of rainfall. As precipitation systems move over the mountains, they can develop rapidly and produce localized heavy rainfall. Thus observational analysis in the mountainous areas is required for studying terrain effects on the rapid rainfall development and its microphysics. We performed intensive field observations using two s-band operational weather radars around Mt. Jiri (1950 m ASL) during summertime on June and July in 2015-2016. Observation data of DSD (Drop Size Distribution) from Parsivel disdrometer and (w component) vertical velocity data from ultrasonic anemometers were analyzed for Typhoon Chanhom on 12 July 2015 and the heavy rain event on 1 July 2016. During the heavy rain event, a dual-Doppler radar analysis using Jindo radar and Gunsan radar was also conducted to examine 3-D wind fields and vertical structure of reflectivity in these areas. For examining up-/downdrafts in the windward or leeward side of Mt. Jiri, we developed a new scheme technique to estimate vertical velocities (w) from drop size and fall velocity spectra of Parsivel disdrometers at different stations. Their comparison with the w values observed by the 3D anemometer showed quite good agreement each other. The Z histogram with regard to the estimated w was similar to that with regard to R, indicating that Parsivel-estimated w is quite reasonable for classifying strong and weak rain, corresponding to updraft and downdraft, respectively. Mostly, positive w values (upward) were estimated in heavy rainfall at the windward side (D1 and D2). Negative w values (downward) were dominant even during large rainfall at the leeward side (D4). For D1 and D2, the upward w percentages were
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daley, T. J.; Mauquoy, D.; Chambers, F. M.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Hughes, P. D. M.; Loader, N. J.; Roland, T. P.; van Bellen, S.; Garcia-Meneses, P.; Lewin, S.
2012-09-01
Ombrotrophic raised peatlands provide an ideal archive for integrating late Holocene records of variations in hydroclimate and the estimated stable isotope composition of precipitation with recent instrumental measurements. Modern measurements of mean monthly surface air temperature, precipitation, and δD and δ18O-values in precipitation from the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries provide a short but invaluable record with which to investigate modern relationships between these variables, thereby enabling improved interpretation of the peatland palaeodata. Stable isotope data from two stations in the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) from southern South America (Punta Arenas, Chile and Ushuaia, Argentina) were analysed for the period 1982 to 2008 and compared with longer-term meteorological data from the same locations (1890 to present and 1931 to present, respectively). δD and δ18O-values in precipitation have exhibited quite different trends in response to local surface air temperature and precipitation amount. At Punta Arenas, there has been a marked increase in the seasonal difference between summer and winter δ18O-values. A decline in the deuterium excess of summer precipitation at this station was associated with a general increase in relative humidity at 1000 mb over the surface of the Southeast Pacific Ocean, believed to be the major vapour source for the local precipitation. At Ushuaia, a fall in δ18O-values was associated with an increase in the mean annual amount of precipitation. Both records are consistent with a southward retraction and increase in zonal wind speed of the austral westerly wind belt. These regional differences, observed in response to a known driver, should be detectable in peatland sites close to the GNIP stations. Currently, insufficient data with suitable temporal resolution are available to test for these regional differences over the last 3000 yr. Existing peatland palaeoclimate data from two
Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhang, Sara; Zupanski, Dusanka; Hou, Arthur; Zupanski, Milija
2008-01-01
Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.
Fan, Jing; Tian, Fei; Yang, Yonghui; Han, Shumin; Qiu, Guoyu
2010-01-01
Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.
2011-12-01
The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.
Precipitate resolution in an electron irradiated ni-si alloy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Watanabe, H.; Muroga, T.; Yoshida, N.; Kitajima, K.
1988-09-01
Precipitate resolution processes in a Ni-12.6 at% Si alloy under electron irradiation have been observed by means of HVEM. Above 400°C, growth and resolution of Ni 3Si precipitates were observed simultaneously. The detail stereoscopic observation showed that the precipitates close to free surfaces grew, while those in the middle of a specimen dissolved. The critical dose when the precipitates start to shrink increases with increasing the depth. This depth dependence of the precipitate behavior under irradiation has a close relation with the formation of surface precipitates and the growth of solute depleted zone beneath them. The temperature and dose dependence of the resolution rate showed that the precipitates in the solute depleted zone dissolved by the interface controlled process of radiation-enhanced diffusion.
Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.
Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J; Horowitz, Hannah M; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M; Krabbenhoft, David P; Slemr, Franz; St Louis, Vincent L; Sunderland, Elsie M
2016-01-19
Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, J. Marshall; Smith, Eric A.; Adams, W. James (Editor)
2002-01-01
Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.
Precipitation Estimates for Hydroelectricity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tapiador, Francisco J.; Hou, Arthur Y.; de Castro, Manuel; Checa, Ramiro; Cuartero, Fernando; Barros, Ana P.
2011-01-01
Hydroelectric plants require precise and timely estimates of rain, snow and other hydrometeors for operations. However, it is far from being a trivial task to measure and predict precipitation. This paper presents the linkages between precipitation science and hydroelectricity, and in doing so it provides insight into current research directions that are relevant for this renewable energy. Methods described include radars, disdrometers, satellites and numerical models. Two recent advances that have the potential of being highly beneficial for hydropower operations are featured: the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, which represents an important leap forward in precipitation observations from space, and high performance computing (HPC) and grid technology, that allows building ensembles of numerical weather and climate models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar
2017-10-01
Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).
Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications
Mensah, George A.; Wei, Gina S.; Sorlie, Paul D.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G.; Mussolino, Michael E.; Hsu, Lucy L.; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M.; Gordon, David
2016-01-01
If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke has been the success story of the century’s last 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in CHD and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the U.S. population aged. However, in 1978 the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) concluded that a significant recent downtick in CHD and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the U.S. Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from CHD and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one-third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The NHLBI, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference in order to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. PMID:28104770
Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.
Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David
2017-01-20
If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yatagai, Akiyo; Watanabe, Akira; Ishihara, Masahito; Ishihara, Hirohiko; Takara, Kaoru
2014-05-01
The transport and diffusion of the radioactive pollutants from the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP inthe atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Further, precipitation type and its amount affect the various transport process of the radioactive nuclides. Hence, this study first examine the qualitative precipitation pattern and timing in March 2011 using X-band radar data from Fukushima University and three dimensional C-band radar data network of Japan Meteorological Agency. Second, by collecting rain-gauge network and other surface meteorological data, we estimate quantitative precipitation and its type (rain/snow) according to the same method used to create APHRODITE daily grid precipitation (Yatagai et al., 2012) and judge of rain/snow (Yasutomi et al., 2011). For example, the data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the NPP and through north Kanto (about 200 km southwest of Fukushima and, 100 km north of Tokyo) went to the northeast, the timing of the precipitation causing the fallout, i.e., wet-deposition, is important. Although the hourly Radar-AMeDAS 1-km-mesh precipitation data of JMA are available publically, it does not represent the precipitation pattern in Nakadori, in central Fukushima
Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.
2007-01-01
Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.
a Climatology of Global Precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Legates, David Russell
A global climatology of mean monthly precipitation has been developed using traditional land-based gage measurements as well as derived oceanic data. These data have been screened for coding errors and redundant entries have been removed. Oceanic precipitation estimates are most often extrapolated from coastal and island observations because few gage estimates of oceanic precipitation exist. One such procedure, developed by Dorman and Bourke and used here, employs a derived relationship between observed rainfall totals and the "current weather" at coastal stations. The combined data base contains 24,635 independent terrestial station records and 2223 oceanic grid-point records. Raingage catches are known to underestimate actual precipitation. Errors in the gage catch result from wind -field deformation, wetting losses, and evaporation from the gage and can amount to nearly 8, 2, and 1 percent of the global catch, respectively. A procedure has been developed to correct many of these errors and has been used to adjust the gage estimates of global precipitation. Space-time variations in gage type, air temperature, wind speed, and natural vegetation were incorporated into the correction procedure. Corrected data were then interpolated to the nodes of a 0.5^circ of latitude by 0.5^circ of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Interpolation errors are largest in areas of low station density, rugged topography, and heavy precipitation. Interpolated estimates also were compared with a digital filtering technique to access the aliasing of high-frequency "noise" into the lower frequency signals. Isohyetal maps displaying the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation are presented. Gage corrections and the standard error of the corrected estimates also are mapped. Results indicate that mean annual global precipitation is 1123 mm with 1251 mm falling over the oceans and 820 mm over land. Spatial distributions of monthly precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
di Luca, Alejandro; de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René
2012-03-01
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Visser, Ate; Thaw, Melissa; Esser, Brad
Understanding the behavior of tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, in the environment is important to evaluate the exposure risk of anthropogenic releases, and for its application as a tracer in hydrology and oceanography. To understand and predict the variability of tritium in precipitation, HYSPLIT air mass trajectories were analyzed for 16 aggregate precipitation samples collected over a 2 year period at irregular intervals at a research site located at 2000 m elevation in the southern Sierra Nevada (California, USA). Attributing the variation in tritium to specific source areas confirms the hypothesis that higher latitude or inland sources bring highermore » tritium levels in precipitation than precipitation originating in the lower latitude Pacific Ocean. In this case, the source of precipitation accounts for 79% of the variation observed in tritium concentrations. In conclusion, air mass trajectory analysis is a promising tool to improve the predictions of tritium in precipitation at unmonitored locations and thoroughly understand the processes controlling transport of tritium in the environment.« less
Visser, Ate; Thaw, Melissa; Esser, Brad
2017-11-20
Understanding the behavior of tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, in the environment is important to evaluate the exposure risk of anthropogenic releases, and for its application as a tracer in hydrology and oceanography. To understand and predict the variability of tritium in precipitation, HYSPLIT air mass trajectories were analyzed for 16 aggregate precipitation samples collected over a 2 year period at irregular intervals at a research site located at 2000 m elevation in the southern Sierra Nevada (California, USA). Attributing the variation in tritium to specific source areas confirms the hypothesis that higher latitude or inland sources bring highermore » tritium levels in precipitation than precipitation originating in the lower latitude Pacific Ocean. In this case, the source of precipitation accounts for 79% of the variation observed in tritium concentrations. In conclusion, air mass trajectory analysis is a promising tool to improve the predictions of tritium in precipitation at unmonitored locations and thoroughly understand the processes controlling transport of tritium in the environment.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wendisch, Manfred; Pöschl, Ulrich; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Albrecht, Rachel; Schlager, Hans; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Krämer, Martina
2015-04-01
An extensive airborne/ground-based measurement campaign to study tropical convective clouds is introduced. It was performed in Brazil with focus on the Amazon rainforest from 1 September to 4 October 2014. The project combined the joint German-Brazilian ACRIDICON (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems) and CHUVA (Machado et al.2014) projects. ACRIDICON aimed at the quantification of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and their thermodynamic, dynamic and radiative effects in convective cloud systems by in-situ aircraft observations and indirect measurements (aircraft, satellite, and ground-based). The ACRIDICON-CHUVA campaign was conducted in cooperation with the second Intensive Operational Phase (IOP) of the GOAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon) program. The focus in this presentation is on the airborne observations within ACRIDICON-CHUVA. The German HALO (High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft) was based in Manaus (Amazonas State); it carried out 14 research flights (96 flight hours in total). HALO was equipped with remote sensing and in-situ instrumentation for meteorological, trace gas, aerosol, cloud, and precipitation measurements. Five mission objectives were pursued: (1) cloud vertical evolution (cloud profiling), (2) aerosol processing (inflow and outflow), (3) satellite validation, (4) vertical transport and mixing (tracer experiment), and (5) clouds over forested and deforested areas. The five cloud missions collected data in clean atmospheric conditions and in contrasting polluted (urban and biomass burning) environments.
Wai, K M; Wang, X M; Lin, T H; Wong, M S; Zeng, S K; He, N; Ng, E; Lau, K; Wang, D H
2017-12-01
Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Nöhrer, M; Zamberger, S; Primig, S; Leitner, H
2013-01-01
Atom probe tomography and transmission electron microscopy were used to examine the precipitation reaction in the austenite and ferrite phases in vanadium micro-alloyed steel after a thermo-mechanical process. It was observed that only in the ferrite phase precipitates could be found, whereupon two different types were detected. Thus, the aim was to reveal the difference between these two types. The first type was randomly distributed precipitates from V supersaturated ferrite and the second type V interphase precipitates. Not only the arrangement of the particles was different also the chemical composition. The randomly distributed precipitates consisted of V, C and N in contrast to that the interphase precipitates showed a composition of V, C and Mn. Furthermore the randomly distributed precipitates had maximum size of 20 nm and the interphase precipitates a maximum size of 15 nm. It was assumed that the reason for these differences is caused by the site in which they were formed. The randomly distributed precipitates were formed in a matrix consisting mainly of 0.05 at% C, 0.68 at% Si, 0.03 at% N, 0.145 at% V and 1.51 at% Mn. The interphase precipitates were formed in a region with a much higher C, Mn and V content. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Contractor, S.; Donat, M.; Alexander, L. V.
2017-12-01
Reliable observations of precipitation are necessary to determine past changes in precipitation and validate models, allowing for reliable future projections. Existing gauge based gridded datasets of daily precipitation and satellite based observations contain artefacts and have a short length of record, making them unsuitable to analyse precipitation extremes. The largest limiting factor for the gauge based datasets is a dense and reliable station network. Currently, there are two major data archives of global in situ daily rainfall data, first is Global Historical Station Network (GHCN-Daily) hosted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the other by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) part of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). We combine the two data archives and use automated quality control techniques to create a reliable long term network of raw station data, which we then interpolate using block kriging to create a global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950. We compare our interpolated dataset with existing global gridded data of daily precipitation: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Global V1.0 and GPCC Full Data Daily Version 1.0, as well as various regional datasets. We find that our raw station density is much higher than other datasets. To avoid artefacts due to station network variability, we provide multiple versions of our dataset based on various completeness criteria, as well as provide the standard deviation, kriging error and number of stations for each grid cell and timestep to encourage responsible use of our dataset. Despite our efforts to increase the raw data density, the in situ station network remains sparse in India after the 1960s and in Africa throughout the timespan of the dataset. Our dataset would allow for more reliable global analyses of rainfall including its extremes and pave the way for better global precipitation observations with lower and more transparent uncertainties.
Red oak decline and mortality by ecological land type in the Missouri ozarks
John M. Fan Kabrick; Stephen R. Shifley
2007-01-01
Oak decline, the precipitous mortality of mature oak trees, has been a chronic problem in xeric oak ecosystems and is reaching unprecedented levels in red oak group (Quercus section Lobatae) species in the Ozark Highlands. The high rates of mortality are leading to rapid changes in species composition, forest structure, and related changes in fire...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Fengrui; Gao, Yongqi
2018-01-01
Many studies have reported the excellent ability of high-resolution satellite precipitation products (0.25° or finer) to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, it is not known whether the precipitation trends derived from them are reliable. For the first time, we have evaluated the annual and seasonal precipitation trends from two typical sources of high-resolution satellite-gauge products, TRMM 3B43 and PERSIANN-CDR, using rain gauge observations over China, and they were also compared with those from gauge-only products (0.25° and 0.5° precipitation products, hereafter called CN25 and CN50). The evaluation focused mainly on the magnitude, significance, sign, and relative order of the precipitation trends, and was conducted at gridded and regional scales. The following results were obtained: (1) at the gridded scale, neither satellite-gauge products precisely measure the magnitude of precipitation trends but they do reproduce their sign and relative order; regarding capturing the significance of trends, they exhibit relatively acceptable performance only over regions with a sufficient amount of significant precipitation trends; (2) at the regional scale, both satellite-gauge products generally provide reliable precipitation trends, although they do not reproduce the magnitude of trends in winter precipitation; and (3) overall, CN50 and TRMM 3B43 outperform others in reproducing all four aspects of the precipitation trends. Compared with CN25, PERSIANN-CDR performs better in determining the magnitude of precipitation trends but marginally worse in reproducing their sign and relative order; moreover, both of them are at a level in capturing the significance of precipitation trends.
Remote Sensing of Precipitation from Space
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stocker, Erich Franz
2010-01-01
This slide presentation reviews the use of remote sensing of precipitation from satellite observations. The purpose of the presentation is to introduce the three prime instrument types for measuring precipitation from space, give an overview of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, provides examples of how measurements from space can be used, and provides simple, high level scenarios for how remote sensed precipitation data can be used by planners and managers.
Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions
Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Horowitz, Hannah M.; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Slemr, Franz; St. Louis, Vincent L.; Sunderland, Elsie M.
2016-01-01
Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y−1). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. PMID:26729866
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Grecu, Mircea; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Olson, William S.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
In this study, a technique for estimating vertical profiles of precipitation from multifrequency, multiresolution active and passive microwave observations is investigated using both simulated and airborne data. The technique is applicable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite multi-frequency active and passive observations. These observations are characterized by various spatial and sampling resolutions. This makes the retrieval problem mathematically more difficult and ill-determined because the quality of information decreases with decreasing resolution. A model that, given reflectivity profiles and a small set of parameters (including the cloud water content, the intercept drop size distribution, and a variable describing the frozen hydrometeor properties), simulates high-resolution brightness temperatures is used. The high-resolution simulated brightness temperatures are convolved at the real sensor resolution. An optimal estimation procedure is used to minimize the differences between simulated and observed brightness temperatures. The retrieval technique is investigated using cloud model synthetic and airborne data from the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment. Simulated high-resolution brightness temperatures and reflectivities and airborne observation strong are convolved at the resolution of the TRMM instruments and retrievals are performed and analyzed relative to the reference data used in observations synthesis. An illustration of the possible use of the technique in satellite rainfall estimation is presented through an application to TRMM data. The study suggests improvements in combined active and passive retrievals even when the instruments resolutions are significantly different. Future work needs to better quantify the retrievals performance, especially in connection with satellite applications, and the uncertainty of the models used in retrieval.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Terentyev, D.; Hafez Haghighat, S. M.; Schäublin, R.
2010-03-01
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out to study the interaction between nanometric Cr precipitates and a 1/2 ⟨111⟩{110} edge dislocation (ED) in pure Fe and Fe-9 at. % Cr (Fe-9Cr) random alloy. The aim of this work is to estimate the variation in the pinning strength of the Cr precipitate as a function of temperature, its chemical composition and the matrix composition in which the precipitate is embedded. The dislocation was observed to shear Cr precipitates rather than by-pass via the formation of the Orowan loop, even though a pronounced screw dipole was emerged in the reactions with the precipitates of size larger than 4.5 nm. The screw arms of the formed dipole were not observed to climb thus no point defects were left inside the sheared precipitates, irrespective of simulation temperature. Both Cr solution and Cr precipitates, embedded in the Fe-9Cr matrix, were seen to contribute to the flow stress. The decrease in the flow stress with temperature in the alloy containing Cr precipitates is, therefore, related to the simultaneous change in the matrix friction stress, precipitate resistance, and dislocation flexibility. Critical stress estimated from MD simulations was seen to have a strong dependence on the precipitate composition. If the latter decreases from 95% down to 80%, the corresponding critical stress decreases almost as twice. The results presented here suggest a significant contribution to the flow stress due to the α -α' separation, at least for EDs. The obtained data can be used to validate and to parameterize dislocation dynamics models, where the temperature dependence of the obstacle strength is an essential input data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.
2018-01-01
We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.
Soil Moisture under Different Vegetation cover in response to Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liang, Z.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B.; Ma, J.; Wu, Y.
2016-12-01
The response study of soil moisture to different precipitation and landcover is significant in the field of Hydropedology. The influence of precipitation to soil moisture is obvious in addition to individual stable aquifer. With data of Hillsborough County, Florida, USA, the alluvial wetland forest and ungrazed Bahia grass that under wet and dry periods were chosen as the research objects, respectively. HYDRUS-3D numerical simulation method was used to simulate soil moisture dynamics in the root zone (10-50 cm) of those vegetation. The soil moisture response to precipitation was analyzed. The results showed that the simulation results of alluvial wetland forest by HYDRUS-3D were better than that of the Bahia grass, and for the same vegetation, the simulation results of soil moisture under dry period were better. Precipitation was more in June, 2003, the soil moisture change of alluvial wetland forest in 10-30 cm soil layer and Bahia grass in 10 cm soil layer were consistent with the precipitation change conspicuously. The alluvial wetland forest soil moisture declined faster than Bahia grass under dry period, which demonstrated that Bahia grass had strong ability to hold water. Key words: alluvial wetland forest; Bahia grass; soil moisture; HYDRUS-3D; precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.
2017-12-01
An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.
Some observations on precipitation measurement on forested experimental watersheds
Raymond E. Leonard; Kenneth G. Reinhart
1963-01-01
Measurement of precipitation on forested experimental watersheds presents difficulties other than those associated with access to and from the gages in all kinds of weather. For instance, the tree canopy must be cleared above the gage. The accepted practice of keeping an unobstructed sky view of 45" around the gage involves considerable tree cutting. On a level...
Johnson, Shannon L.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Housman, David C.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Belnap, Jayne
2012-01-01
Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common and ecologically important members of dryland ecosystems worldwide, where they stabilize soil surfaces and contribute newly fixed C and N to soils. To test the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios on biocrusts in a dryland ecosystem, the effects of a 2–3 °C increase in soil temperature and an increased frequency of smaller summer precipitation events were examined in a large, replicated field study conducted in the cold desert of the Colorado Plateau, USA. Surface soil biomass (DNA concentration), photosynthetically active cyanobacterial biomass (chlorophyll a concentration), cyanobacterial abundance (quantitative PCR assay), and bacterial community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing) were monitored seasonally over 2 years. Soil microbial biomass and bacterial community composition were highly stratified between the 0–2 cm depth biocrusts and 5–10 cm depth soil beneath the biocrusts. The increase in temperature did not have a detectable effect on any of the measured parameters over 2 years. However, after the second summer of altered summer precipitation pattern, significant declines occurred in the surface soil biomass (avg. DNA concentration declined 38%), photosynthetic cyanobacterial biomass (avg. chlorophyll a concentration declined 78%), cyanobacterial abundance (avg. gene copies g−1 soil declined 95%), and proportion of Cyanobacteria in the biocrust bacterial community (avg. representation in sequence libraries declined 85%). Biocrusts are important contributors to soil stability, soil C and N stores, and plant performance, and the loss or reduction of biocrusts under an altered precipitation pattern associated with climate change could contribute significantly to lower soil fertility and increased erosion and dust production in dryland ecosystems at a regional scale.
Ammonia induced precipitation of cobalt hydroxide: observation of turbostratic disorder
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramesh, T. N.; Rajamathi, Michael; Kamath, P. Vishnu
2003-05-01
Cobalt hydroxide freshly precipitated from aqueous solutions of Co salts using ammonia, is a layered phase having a 9.17 Å interlayer spacing. DIFFaX simulations of the PXRD pattern reveal that it is turbostratically disordered.
Quantification of the precipitation loss of radiation belt electrons observed by SAMPEX
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tu, Weichao; Selesnick, Richard; Li, Xinlin; Looper, Mark
2010-07-01
Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth's radiation belt were quantified using a drift diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The drift diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different magnitudes were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ˜0.5-3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storms and at L shells ranging from L = 3.5 to L = 6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). The storms represent a small storm, a moderate storm from the current solar minimum, and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of relativistic electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX-covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron loss for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates, such as the local time and energy dependence that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.
Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szwed, Małgorzata
2018-02-01
The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June-August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.
Aging and the shape of cognitive change before death: terminal decline or terminal drop?
MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A
2011-05-01
Relative to typical age-related cognitive decrements, the terms "terminal decline" and "terminal drop" refer to the phenomenon of increased cognitive decline in proximity to death. Given that these terms are not necessarily synonymous, we examined the important theoretical distinction between the two alternative trajectories or shapes of changes they imply. We used 12-year (5-wave) data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study to directly test whether pre-death cognitive decrements follow a terminal decline (generally gradual) or a terminal drop (more abrupt) shape. Pre-death trajectories of cognitive decline for n=265 decedents (Mage = 72.67 years, SD = 6.44) were examined separately for 5 key cognitive constructs (verbal speed, working memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, and crystallized ability). Several classes of linear mixed models evaluated whether cognitive decline increased per additional year closer to death. Findings indicated that the shape of pre-death cognitive change was predominantly characterized by decline that is steeper as compared with typical aging-related change, but still best described as slow and steady decline, especially as compared with precipitous drop. The present findings suggest that terminal decline and terminal drop trajectories may not be mutually exclusive but could rather reflect distinct developmental trajectories within the same individual.
The cultural evolution of fertility decline
Colleran, Heidi
2016-01-01
Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lakshmi, V.; Le, M. H.; Sutton, J. R. P.; Bui, D. D.; Bolten, J. D.
2017-12-01
The Red-ThaiBinh River is the second largest river in Vietnam in terms of economic impact and is home to around 29 million people. The river has been facing challenges for water resources allocation, which require reliable and routine hydrological assessments. However, hydrological analysis is difficult due to insufficient spatial coverage by rain gauges. Satellite-based precipitation estimates are a promising alternative with high-resolution in both time and space. This study aims at investigating the uncertainties in satellite-based precipitation product TRMM 3B42 v7.0 by comparing them against in-situ measurements over the Red-ThaiBinh River basin. The TRMM 3B42 v7.0 are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations over a 17-year period (1998 - 2014). Preliminary results indicate that at a daily scale, except for low Mean Bias Error (MBE), satellite based rainfall product has weak relationship with ground observation data, indicating by average performance of 0.326 and -0.485 for correlation coefficient and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), respectively. At monthly scale, we observe that the TRMM 3B42 v7.0 has higher correlation with the correlation increased significantly to 0.863 and NSE of 0.522. By analyzing wet season (May - October) and dry season (November - April) separately we find that the correlation between the TRMM 3B42 v7.0 with ground observations were higher for wet season than the dry season.
Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Min, Qilong; Li, Rui; Lin, Bing; Joseph, Everette; Wang, Shuyu; Hu, Yongxiang; Morris, Vernon; Chang, F.
2008-01-01
Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.
Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Draper, C.; Liu, Q.; Girotto, M.; Mahanama, S.; De Lannoy, G.; Partyka, G.
2017-01-01
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in
Li, Zan; Millan, Robyn M.; Hudson, Mary K.; ...
2014-12-23
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves were observed at multiple observatory locations for several hours on 17 January 2013. During the wave activity period, a duskside relativistic electron precipitation (REP) event was observed by one of the Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) balloons and was magnetically mapped close to Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13. We simulate the relativistic electron pitch angle diffusion caused by gyroresonant interactions with EMIC waves using wave and particle data measured by multiple instruments on board GOES 13 and the Van Allen Probes. We show that the count rate, the energy distribution,more » and the time variation of the simulated precipitation all agree very well with the balloon observations, suggesting that EMIC wave scattering was likely the cause for the precipitation event. The event reported here is the first balloon REP event with closely conjugate EMIC wave observations, and our study employs the most detailed quantitative analysis on the link of EMIC waves with observed REP to date.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Li, Zan; Millan, Robyn M.; Hudson, Mary K.
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves were observed at multiple observatory locations for several hours on 17 January 2013. During the wave activity period, a duskside relativistic electron precipitation (REP) event was observed by one of the Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) balloons and was magnetically mapped close to Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13. We simulate the relativistic electron pitch angle diffusion caused by gyroresonant interactions with EMIC waves using wave and particle data measured by multiple instruments on board GOES 13 and the Van Allen Probes. We show that the count rate, the energy distribution,more » and the time variation of the simulated precipitation all agree very well with the balloon observations, suggesting that EMIC wave scattering was likely the cause for the precipitation event. The event reported here is the first balloon REP event with closely conjugate EMIC wave observations, and our study employs the most detailed quantitative analysis on the link of EMIC waves with observed REP to date.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sydorenko, D.; Rankin, R.
2013-12-01
We have developed a comprehensive two-dimensional (meridional) model of coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere that covers an altitude range from ~100 km to few thousand km at high latitudes [Sydorenko and Rankin, 2013]. The model describes propagation of inertial scale Alfven waves, including ponderomotive forces, and has a parametric model of energetic electron precipitation; it includes vertical ion flows and chemical reactions between ions and neutrals. Model results are presented that reproduce EISCAT radar observations of electron and ion temperatures, height integrated conductivity, ion densities, and ion flows during a period of ULF activity described in [Lester, Davies, and Yeoman, 2000]. We performed simulations where the precipitation and the Alfven wave perturb the ionosphere simultaneously. By adjusting parameters of the wave and the precipitation we have achieved qualitative, and sometimes even reasonable quantitative agreement between the observations and the simulation. The model results are discussed in the context of new results anticipated from the Canadian small satellite mission ePOP "Enhanced Polar Outflow Probe", scheduled for launch on September 9, 2013. Sydorenko D. and R. Rankin, 'Simulation of O+ upflows created by electron precipitation and Alfvén waves in the ionosphere' submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013. Lester M., J. A. Davies, and T. K. Yeoman, 'The ionospheric response during an interval of PC5 ULF wave activity', Ann. Geophysicae, v.18, p.257-261 (2000).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Zhongwang; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Zhongfang; Seeboonruang, Uma; Koike, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei
2018-04-01
Many paleoclimatic records in Southeast Asia rely on rainfall isotope ratios as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the physical processes controlling modern rainfall isotopic behaviors in the region is poorly constrained. Here, we combined isotopic measurements at six sites across Thailand with an isotope-incorporated atmospheric circulation model (IsoGSM) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the factors that govern the variability of precipitation isotope ratios in this region. Results show that rainfall isotope ratios are both correlated with local rainfall amount and regional outgoing longwave radiation, suggesting that rainfall isotope ratios in this region are controlled not only by local rain amount (amount effect) but also by large-scale convection. As a transition zone between the Indian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon, the spatial difference of observed precipitation isotope among different sites are associated with moisture source. These results highlight the importance of regional processes in determining rainfall isotope ratios in the tropics and provide constraints on the interpretation of paleo-precipitation isotope records in the context of regional climate dynamics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Mingjun; Zhao, Kun; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Guifu; Liu, Su; Wen, Long; Chen, Gang
2016-10-01
The evolution of microphysical characteristics of a rainband in Typhoon Matmo (2014) over eastern China, through its onset, developing, mature, and dissipating stages, is documented using observations from an S band polarimetric Doppler radar and a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). The drop size distributions observed by the 2DVD and retrieved from the polarimetric radar measurements indicate that the convection in the rainband generally contains smaller drops and higher number concentrations than the typical maritime type convection described in Bringi et al. (2003). The average mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) of convective precipitation in the rainband is about 1.41 mm, and the average logarithmic normalized intercept (Nw) is 4.67 log10 mm-1 m-3. To further investigate the dominant microphysical processes, the evolution of the vertical structures of polarimetric variables is examined. Results show that complex ice processes are involved above the freezing level, while it is most likely that the accretion and/or coalescence processes dominate below the freezing level throughout the rainband life cycle. A combined examination of the polarimetric measurements and profiles of estimated vertical liquid and ice water contents indicates that the conversion of cloud water into rainwater through cloud water accretion by raindrops plays a dominant role in producing heavy rainfall. The high estimated precipitation efficiency of 50% also suggests that cloud water accretion is the dominant mechanism for producing heavy rainfall. This study represents the first time that radar and 2DVD observations are used together to characterize the microphysical characteristics and precipitation efficiency for typhoon rainbands in China.
Verifying Diurnal Variations of Global Precipitation in Three New Global Reanalyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, S.; Xie, P.; Sun, F.; Joyce, R.
2013-12-01
Diurnal variations of global precipitation and their representation in three sets of new generation global reanalyses are examined using the reprocessed and bias corrected CMORPH satellite precipitation estimates. The CMORPH satellite precipitation estimates are produced on an 8km by 8km grid over the globe (60oS-60oN) and in a 30-min interval covering a 15-year period from 1998 to the present through combining information from IR and PMW observations from all available satellites. Bias correction is performed for the raw CMORPH precipitation estimates through calibration against an gauge-based analysis over land and against the pentad GPCP analysis over ocean. The reanalyses examined here include the NCEP CFS reanalysis (CFSR), NASA/GSFC MERRA, and ECMWF Interim. The bias-corrected CMORPH is integrated from its original resolution to the reanalyses grid systems to facilitate the verification. First, quantitative agreements between the reanalysis precipitation fields and the CMORPH satellite observation are examined over the global domain. Precipitation structures associated with the large-scale topography are well reproduced when compared against the observation. Evolution of precipitation patterns with the development of transient weather systems are captured by the CFSR and two other reanalyses. The reanalyses tend to generate precipitation fields with wider raining areas and reduced intensity for heavy rainfall cases compared the observations over both land and ocean. Seasonal migration of global precipitation depicted in the 15-year CMORPH satellite observations is very well captured by the three sets of new reanalyses, although magnitude of precipitation is larger, especially in the CFSR, compared to that in the observations. In general, the three sets of new reanalyses exhibit substantial improvements in their performance to represent global precipitation distributions and variations. In particular, the new reanalyses produced precipitation variations of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanò, P.; Panegrossi, G.; Casella, D.; Di Paola, F.; Milani, L.; Mugnai, A.; Petracca, M.; Dietrich, S.
2015-02-01
The purpose of this study is to describe a new algorithm based on a neural network approach (Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval - PNPR) for precipitation rate estimation from AMSU/MHS observations, and to provide examples of its performance for specific case studies over the European/Mediterranean area. The algorithm optimally exploits the different characteristics of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) channels, and their combinations, including the brightness temperature (TB) differences of the 183.31 channels, with the goal of having a single neural network for different types of background surfaces (vegetated land, snow-covered surface, coast and ocean). The training of the neural network is based on the use of a cloud-radiation database, built from cloud-resolving model simulations coupled to a radiative transfer model, representative of the European and Mediterranean Basin precipitation climatology. The algorithm provides also the phase of the precipitation and a pixel-based confidence index for the evaluation of the reliability of the retrieval. Applied to different weather conditions in Europe, the algorithm shows good performance both in the identification of precipitation areas and in the retrieval of precipitation, which is particularly valuable over the extremely variable environmental and meteorological conditions of the region. The PNPR is particularly efficient in (1) screening and retrieval of precipitation over different background surfaces; (2) identification and retrieval of heavy rain for convective events; and (3) identification of precipitation over a cold/iced background, with increased uncertainties affecting light precipitation. In this paper, examples of good agreement of precipitation pattern and intensity with ground-based data (radar and rain gauges) are provided for four different case studies. The algorithm has been developed in order to be easily tailored to new
A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling
This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...
Precipitates and boundaries interaction in ferritic ODS steels
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sallez, Nicolas; Hatzoglou, Constantinos; Delabrouille, Fredéric; Sornin, Denis; Chaffron, Laurent; Blat-Yrieix, Martine; Radiguet, Bertrand; Pareige, Philippe; Donnadieu, Patricia; Bréchet, Yves
2016-04-01
In the course of a recrystallization study of Oxide Dispersion Strengthened (ODS) ferritic steels during extrusion, particular interest was paid to the (GB) Grain Boundaries interaction with precipitates. Complementary and corresponding characterization experiments using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) and Atom Probe Tomography (APT) have been carried out on a voluntarily interrupted extrusion or extruded samples. Microscopic observations of Precipitate Free Zones (PFZ) and precipitates alignments suggest precipitate interaction with migrating GB involving dissolution and Oswald ripening of the precipitates. This is consistent with the local chemical information gathered by EDX and APT. This original mechanism for ODS steels is similar to what had been proposed in the late 80s for similar observation made on Ti alloys reinforced by nanosized yttrium oxides: An interaction mechanism between grain boundaries and precipitates involving a diffusion controlled process of precipitates dissolution at grain boundaries. It is believed that this mechanism can be of primary importance to explain the mechanical behaviour of such steels.
Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kucera, Paul A.; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Turk, F. Joseph; Levizzani, Vicenzo; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tapiador, Francisco J.; Loew, Alexander; Borsche, M.
2012-01-01
Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel
2014-05-01
We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present
Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi
2017-10-01
Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, T.; Detwiler, R. L.
2017-12-01
Fractures act as dominant pathways for fluid flow in low-permeability rocks. However, in many subsurface environments, fluid rock reactions can lead to mineral precipitation, which alters fracture surface geometry and reduces fracture permeability. In natural fractures, surface mineralogy and roughness are often heterogeneous, leading to variations in both velocity and reactive surface area. The combined effects of surface roughness and mineral heterogeneity can lead to large disparities in local precipitation rates that are difficult to predict due to the strong coupling between dissolved mineral transport and reactions at the fracture surface. Recent experimental observations suggest that mineral precipitation in a heterogeneous fracture may promote preferential flow and focus large dissolved ion concentrations into regions with limited reactive surface area. Here, we build on these observations using reactive transport simulations. Reactive transport is simulated with a quasi-steady-state 2D model that uses a depth-averaged mass-transfer relationship to describe dissolved mineral transport across the fracture aperture and local precipitation reactions. Mineral precipitation-induced changes to fracture surface geometry are accounted for using two different approaches: (1) by only allowing reactive minerals to grow vertically, and (2) by allowing three-dimensional mineral growth at reaction sites. Preliminary results from simulations using (1) suggest that precipitation-induced aperture reduction focuses flow into thin flow paths. This flow focusing causes a reduction in the fracture-scale precipitation rate, and precipitation ceases when the reaction zone extends the entire length of the fracture. This approach reproduces experimental observations at early time reasonably well, but as precipitation proceeds, reaction sites can grow laterally along the fracture surfaces, which is not predicted by (1). To account for three-dimensional mineral growth (2), we have
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lue, C.; Halekas, J. S.
2017-12-01
Particle sensors on the MAVEN spacecraft (SWIA, SWEA, STATIC) observe precipitating solar wind ions during MAVEN's periapsis passes in the Martian atmosphere (at 120-250 km altitude). The signature is observed as positive and negative particles at the solar wind energy, traveling away from the Sun. The observations can be explained by the solar wind penetrating the Martian magnetic barrier in the form of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) due to charge-exchange with the Martian hydrogen corona, and then being reionized in positive or negative form upon impact with the atmosphere (1). These findings have elucidated solar wind precipitation dynamics at Mars, and can also be used to monitor the solar wind even when MAVEN is at periapsis (2). In the present study, we focus on a SWIA instrument background signal that has been interpreted as spacecraft/instrument-scattered ions (2). We aim to model and subtract the scattered ion signal from the observations including those of reionized solar wind. We also aim to use the scattered ion signal to track hydrogen ENAs impacting the spacecraft above the reionization altitude. We characterize the energy spectrum and directional scattering function for solar wind scattering off the SWIA aperture structure, the radome and the spacecraft body. We find a broad scattered-ion energy spectrum up to the solar wind energy, displaying increased energy loss and reduced flux with increasing scattering angle, allowing correlations with the solar wind direction, energy, and flux. We develop models that can be used to predict the scattered signal based on the direct solar wind observations or to infer the solar wind properties based on the observed scattered signal. We then investigate deviations to the models when the spacecraft is in the Martian atmosphere and evaluate the plausibility of that these are caused by ENAs. We also perform SIMION modeling of the scattering process and the resulting signal detection by SWIA, to study the results from
Aging and the Shape of Cognitive Change Before Death: Terminal Decline Or Terminal Drop?
Hultsch, David F.; Dixon, Roger A.
2011-01-01
Objectives. Relative to typical age-related cognitive decrements, the terms “terminal decline” and “terminal drop” refer to the phenomenon of increased cognitive decline in proximity to death. Given that these terms are not necessarily synonymous, we examined the important theoretical distinction between the two alternative trajectories or shapes of changes they imply. Methods. We used 12-year (5-wave) data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study to directly test whether pre-death cognitive decrements follow a terminal decline (generally gradual) or a terminal drop (more abrupt) shape. Pre-death trajectories of cognitive decline for n = 265 decedents (Mage = 72.67 years, SD = 6.44) were examined separately for 5 key cognitive constructs (verbal speed, working memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, and crystallized ability). Results. Several classes of linear mixed models evaluated whether cognitive decline increased per additional year closer to death. Findings indicated that the shape of pre-death cognitive change was predominantly characterized by decline that is steeper as compared with typical aging-related change, but still best described as slow and steady decline, especially as compared with precipitous drop. Discussion. The present findings suggest that terminal decline and terminal drop trajectories may not be mutually exclusive but could rather reflect distinct developmental trajectories within the same individual. PMID:21300703
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Barros, A. P.; Petersen, W.; Wilson, A. M.
2016-04-01
Three Microwave Radiometers (two 3-channel and one 2-channel) were deployed in the Southern Appalachian Mountains in western North Carolina as part of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), which was the first National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) field campaign after the launch of the GPM Core Satellite (Barros et al. 2014). The radiometers were used along with other instrumentation to estimate the liquid water content of low-level clouds and fog. Specifically, data from the radiometers were collected to help, with other instrumentation, to characterize fog formation, evolution, and dissipation in themore » region (by monitoring the liquid water path in the column) and observe the effect of that fog on the precipitation regime. Data were collected at three locations in the Southern Appalachians, specifically western North Carolina: a valley in the inner mountain region, a valley in the open mountain pass region, and a ridge in the inner region. This project contributes to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility mission by providing in situ observations designed to improve the understanding of clouds and precipitation processes in complex terrain. The end goal is to use this improved understanding of physical processes to improve remote-sensing algorithms and representations of orographic precipitation microphysics in climate and earth system models.« less
Statistical simulation of ensembles of precipitation fields for data assimilation applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haese, Barbara; Hörning, Sebastian; Chwala, Christian; Bárdossy, András; Schalge, Bernd; Kunstmann, Harald
2017-04-01
The simulation of the hydrological cycle by models is an indispensable tool for a variety of environmental challenges such as climate prediction, water resources management, or flood forecasting. One of the crucial variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes, is precipitation. A correct reproduction of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for the quality and performance of hydrological applications. In our approach we stochastically generate precipitation fields conditioned on various precipitation observations. Rain gauges provide high-quality information for a specific measurement point, but their spatial representativeness is often rare. Microwave links, e. g. from commercial cellular operators, on the other hand can be used to estimate line integrals of near-surface rainfall information. They provide a very dense observational system compared to rain gauges. A further prevalent source of precipitation information are weather radars, which provide rainfall pattern informations. In our approach we derive precipitation fields, which are conditioned on combinations of these different observation types. As method to generate precipitation fields we use the random mixing method. Following this method a precipitation field is received as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are chosen in the way that the observations and the spatial structure of precipitation are reproduced. One main advantage of the random mixing method is the opportunity to consider linear and non-linear constraints. For a demonstration of the method we use virtual observations generated from a virtual reality of the Neckar catchment. These virtual observations mimic advantages and disadvantages of real observations. This virtual data set allows us to evaluate simulated
Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines
Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory
2017-01-01
Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.
2017-12-01
Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.
Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.; ...
2017-04-02
Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into
Multi-scale Observations of High-Energy Electron Precipitation in the Nightside Transition Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weatherwax, A. T.; Donovan, E.
2012-12-01
In recent years, the riometer has experienced a renaissance as an important tool for tracking the spatio-temporal evolution of high-energy magnetospheric electron (e-) populations. Networks of single beam riometers give a sparsely sampled picture of the global evolution of magnetospheric high energy e- population; existing imaging riometers resolve smaller-scale processes, but because they are isolated from one another, that resolution cannot be applied to the ionospheric signature of mesoscale magnetospheric processes. With funding from an NSF MRI, we are developing an innovative new facility where, for the first time, absorption related to high energy precipitation will be imaged across a large enough region to allow for tracking the effects of mesoscale magnetospheric processes (such as the dispersionless injection, patchy pulsating aurora, and ULF waves) with high enough space and time resolution to address key unresolved geospace questions. We will deploy in central Canada, taking advantage of excellent coverage of our target region by existing and potential future complimentary networks. The figure shows present coverage spanning auroral latitudes in North American by ASIs (including THEMIS-ASI), the mid-latitude SuperDARN HF radars, Meridian Scanning Photometers (MSPs), and magnetometers. The ASI, SuperDARN, and magnetometer networks will provide significantly more extensive coverage than our target region, thus proving information about (lower energy) auroral precipitation, large-scale magnetospheric convection (as impressed on the ionosphere), and ionospheric currents around and within our target region. For the first time, we will simultaneously observe the coupled convection, auroral, and high-energy electron precipitation in this key geospace region. These observations will be important for RBSP, CEDAR, and GEM science.; Figure: Left: Target region for the new imaging riometer array, and FoVs of THEMIS-ASIs and Canadian Multi-Spectral ASIs. Middle: Scan
Identifying external influences on global precipitation
Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline
2013-01-01
Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities. PMID:24218561
Identifying external influences on global precipitation.
Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline
2013-11-26
Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.
Precipitation in the Solar System
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McIntosh, Gordon
2007-01-01
As an astronomy instructor, I am always looking for commonly observed Earthly experiences to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote a short TPT article on frost. This paper is on the related phenomena of precipitation. Precipitation, so common on most of the Earth's…
Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naegele, Alexandra Claire
Increasing precipitation and warming temperatures associated with climate change have been documented across the globe, including in the Northeast US. These climate changes threaten human health in many ways. Research is necessary to understand and explain the relationship between climate change and human health. Extreme weather events such as extreme temperatures, convective storms, floods, lightning events, wintry precipitation, and low visibility, are frequently associated with adverse effects on human health. While more media attention is typically given to events that cause the most structural or economic damage (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.), extreme temperatures ultimately account for the greatest loss of life in the US. Extreme weather events can be unpredictable; however, improved knowledge and technology allow meteorologists to accurately forecast many of these events, specifically extreme temperature and precipitation events. Advancing our knowledge of climate variability and trends in extreme weather can inform: public education programs to alert the community of the dangers of extreme heat or cold, emergency response plans to hazardous weather conditions, and current thresholds for emergency alerts. This study evaluates trends in extreme weather events across New Hampshire and links these extreme events to adverse health outcomes. Using data from NCEI Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) - Daily dataset (1981 - 2015), five daily xiii Extreme Weather Metrics (EWMs) were defined: Daily Maximum Temperature ≤32°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥90°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥95°F, Daily Precipitation ≥1", and Daily Precipitation ≥2". Relevant human health outcomes were extracted from the New Hampshire Hospital Discharge Dataset for the years 2001-2009. Health cases were defined based on the International Classification of Disease 9th Revision (ICD-9). Outcomes in this analysis include: All-Cause Injury, Vehicle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirsikko, Anne; Brus, David; O'Connor, Ewan J.; Filioglou, Maria; Komppula, Mika; Romakkaniemi, Sami
2017-04-01
In the high and mid latitudes super-cooled liquid water layers are frequently observed on top of clouds. These layers are difficult to forecast with numerical weather prediction models, even though, they have strong influence on atmospheric radiative properties, cloud microphysical properties, and subsequently, precipitation. This work investigates properties of super-cooled liquid water layer topped sub-arctic clouds and precipitation observed with ground-based in-situ (cloud probes) and remote-sensing (a cloud radar, Doppler and multi-wavelength lidars) instrumentation during two-month long Pallas Cloud Experiment (PaCE 2015) in autumn 2015. Analysis is based on standard Cloudnet scheme supplemented with new retrieval products of the specific clouds and their properties. Combination of two scales of observation provides new information on properties of clouds and precipitation in the sub-arctic Pallas region. Current status of results will be presented during the conference. The authors acknowledge financial support by the Academy of Finland (Centre of Excellence Programme, grant no 272041; and ICINA project, grant no 285068), the ACTRIS2 - European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654109, the KONE foundation, and the EU FP7 project BACCHUS (grant no 603445).
Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.
2014-12-01
The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crow, W. T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R. H.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.
2018-05-01
Accurate partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff is a fundamental objective of land surface models tasked with characterizing the surface water and energy balance. Temporal variability in this partitioning is due, in part, to changes in prestorm soil moisture, which determine soil infiltration capacity and unsaturated storage. Utilizing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 soil moisture product in combination with streamflow and precipitation observations, we demonstrate that land surface models (LSMs) generally underestimate the strength of the positive rank correlation between prestorm soil moisture and event runoff coefficients (i.e., the fraction of rainfall accumulation volume converted into stormflow runoff during a storm event). Underestimation is largest for LSMs employing an infiltration-excess approach for stormflow runoff generation. More accurate coupling strength is found in LSMs that explicitly represent subsurface stormflow or saturation-excess runoff generation processes.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Skofronick-Jackson, Gail; Hudak, David; Petersen, Walter; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Chandrasekar, V.; Durden, Stephen; Gleicher, Kirstin J.; Huang, Gwo-Jong; Joe, Paul; Kollias, Pavlos;
2014-01-01
As a component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle, and especially at higher latitudes,falling snow creates snow pack accumulation that in turn provides a large proportion of the fresh water resources required by many communities throughout the world. To assess the relationships between remotely sensed snow measurements with in situ measurements, a winter field project, termed the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx), was carried out in the winter of 2011-2012 in Ontario, Canada. Its goal was to provide information on the precipitation microphysics and processes associated with cold season precipitation to support GPM snowfall retrieval algorithms that make use of a dual-frequency precipitation radar and a passive microwave imager on board the GPM core satellite,and radiometers on constellation member satellites. Multi-parameter methods are required to be able to relate changes in the microphysical character of the snow to measureable parameters from which precipitation detection and estimation can be based. The data collection strategy was coordinated, stacked, high-altitude and in-situ cloud aircraft missions with three research aircraft sampling within a broader surface network of five ground sites taking in-situ and volumetric observations. During the field campaign 25 events were identified and classified according to their varied precipitation type, synoptic context, and precipitation amount. Herein, the GCPEx fieldcampaign is described and three illustrative cases detailed.
Estimation of continental precipitation recycling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, P. S.
1993-01-01
The total amount of water that precipitates on large continental regions is supplied by two mechanisms: 1) advection from the surrounding areas external to the region and 2) evaporation and transpiration from the land surface within the region. The latter supply mechanism is tantamount to the recycling of precipitation over the continental area. The degree to which regional precipitation is supplied by recycled moisture is a potentially significant climate feedback mechanism and land surface-atmosphere interaction, which may contribute to the persistence and intensification of droughts. Gridded data on observed wind and humidity in the global atmosphere are used to determine the convergence of atmospheric water vapor over continental regions. A simplified model of the atmospheric moisture over continents and simultaneous estimates of regional precipitation are employed to estimate, for several large continental regions, the fraction of precipitation that is locally derived. The results indicate that the contribution of regional evaporation to regional precipitation varies substantially with location and season. For the regions studied, the ratio of locally contributed to total monthly precipitation generally lies between 0. 10 and 0.30 but is as high as 0.40 in several cases.
Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.
Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D
2010-07-21
The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.
Precipitation and Diabatic Heating Distributions from TRMM/GPM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.; Wu, D.; Tao, W. K.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Jiang, X.
2016-12-01
The initial focus of our research effort was the development of a physically-based methodology for estimating 3D precipitation distributions from a combination of spaceborne radar and passive microwave radiometer observations. This estimation methodology was originally developed for applications to Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission sensor data, but it has recently been adapted to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager observations. Precipitation distributions derived from the TRMM sensors are interpreted using cloud-system resolving model simulations to infer atmospheric latent+eddy heating (Q1-QR) distributions in the tropics and subtropics. Further, the estimates of Q1-QR are combined with estimates of radiative heating (QR), derived from TRMM Microwave Imager and Visible and Infrared Scanner data as well as environmental properties from NCEP reanalyses, to yield estimates of the large-scale total diabatic heating (Q1). A thirteen-year database of precipitation and diabatic heating is constructed using TRMM observations from 1998-2010 as part of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study program. State-dependent errors in precipitation and heating products are evaluated by propagating the potential errors of a priori modeling assumptions through the estimation method framework. Knowledge of these errors is critical for determining the "closure" of global water and energy budgets. Applications of the precipitation/heating products to climate studies will be presented at the conference.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Culler, L. E.; Finger, R.; Plane, E.; Ayres, M.; Virginia, R. A.
2015-12-01
Ecological dynamics across the Arctic are responding to rapid changes in climate. As a whole, the Arctic has warmed at approximately twice the rate of the rest of the world, but changes in temperature and precipitation experienced at regional and local scales are most important for coupled human-natural systems. In addition, biologically-relevant climate indices are necessary for quantifying ecological responses of terrestrial and aquatic systems to varying climate. We compared climatic changes at six different Arctic and sub-Arctic locations, including two in Greenland (Kangerlussuaq, Sisimiut), one in Sweden (Abisko), and three in Alaska (Barrow, Nome, Fairbanks). We amassed weather data (daily temperature and precipitation), dating as far back as 1906, from public-access databases and used these data to calculate indices such as length of growing season, growing season degree days (GDD), and growing season precipitation. Annual GDD increased at all locations (average of 13% increase in GDD since 1980), but especially in western Greenland (16 and 37% in Kangerlussuaq and Sisimiut, respectively). Changes in growing season precipitation were more variable, with only Barrow, AK and Abisko, Sweden experiencing increased precipitation. All other sites experienced stable or slightly declining precipitation. Increasing temperatures and relatively stable precipitation translates to increased evapotranspiration potential, which influences soil moisture, lake depth, vegetation, carbon emissions, and fire susceptibility. Understanding local and regional trends in temperature and precipitation can help explain observed phenological changes and other processes at population, community, and ecosystem levels. In addition, identification of locations most susceptible to future change will allow scientists to closely monitor their ecological dynamics, anticipate changes in coupled human-natural systems, and consider adaptation plans for the most rapidly changing systems.
Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects
Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Bala, G.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.
2008-01-01
Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.
Forest stand structure, productivity, and age mediate climatic effects on aspen decline
Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.
2014-01-01
Because forest stand structure, age, and productivity can mediate the impacts of climate on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality, ignoring stand-scale factors limits inference on the drivers of recent sudden aspen decline. Using the proportion of aspen trees that were dead as an index of recent mortality at 841 forest inventory plots, we examined the relationship of this mortality index to forest structure and climate in the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain Western United States. We found that forest structure explained most of the patterns in mortality indices, but that variation in growing-season vapor pressure deficit and winter precipitation over the last 20 years was important. Mortality index sensitivity to precipitation was highest in forests where aspen exhibited high densities, relative basal areas, quadratic mean diameters, and productivities, whereas sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit was highest in young forest stands. These results indicate that the effects of drought on mortality may be mediated by forest stand development, competition with encroaching conifers, and physiological vulnerabilities of large trees to drought. By examining mortality index responses to both forest structure and climate, we show that forest succession cannot be ignored in studies attempting to understand the causes and consequences of sudden aspen decline.
A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology
Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.
2015-01-01
Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate
Improving precipitation estimates over the western United States using GOES-R precipitation data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karbalaee, N.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Gourley, J. J.
2017-12-01
Satellite remote sensing data with fine spatial and temporal resolution are widely used for precipitation estimation for different applications such as hydrological modeling, storm prediction, and flash flood monitoring. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R) is the next generation of environmental satellites that provides hydrologic, atmospheric, and climatic information every 30 seconds over the western hemisphere. The high-resolution and low-latency of GOES-R observations is essential for the monitoring and prediction of floods, specifically in the Western United States where the vantage point of space can complement the degraded weather radar coverage of the NEXRAD network. The GOES-R rainfall rate algorithm will yield deterministic quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). Accounting for inherent uncertainties will further advance the GOES-R QPEs since with quantifiable error bars, the rainfall estimates can be more readily fused with ground radar products. On the ground, the high-resolution NEXRAD-based precipitation estimation from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which is now operational in the National Weather Service (NWS), is challenged due to a lack of suitable coverage of operational weather radars over complex terrain. Distribution of QPE uncertainties associated with the GOES-R deterministic retrievals are derived and analyzed using MRMS over regions with good radar coverage. They will be merged with MRMS-based probabilistic QPEs developed to advance multisensor QPE integration. This research aims at improving precipitation estimation over the CONUS by combining the observations from GOES-R and MRMS to provide consistent, accurate and fine resolution precipitation rates with uncertainties over the CONUS.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mintz, Y.; Walker, G. K.
1993-01-01
The global fields of normal monthly soil moisture and land surface evapotranspiration are derived with a simple water budget model that has precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as inputs. The precipitation is observed and the potential evapotranspiration is derived from the observed surface air temperature with the empirical regression equation of Thornthwaite (1954). It is shown that at locations where the net surface radiation flux has been measured, the potential evapotranspiration given by the Thornthwaite equation is in good agreement with those obtained with the radiation-based formulations of Priestley and Taylor (1972), Penman (1948), and Budyko (1956-1974), and this provides the justification for the use of the Thornthwaite equation. After deriving the global fields of soil moisture and evapotranspiration, the assumption is made that the potential evapotranspiration given by the Thornthwaite equation and by the Priestley-Taylor equation will everywhere be about the same; the inverse of the Priestley-Taylor equation is used to obtain the normal monthly global fields of net surface radiation flux minus ground heat storage. This and the derived evapotranspiration are then used in the equation for energy conservation at the surface of the earth to obtain the global fields of normal monthly sensible heat flux from the land surface to the atmosphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, Alexa; Holz, Robert E.; Ackerman, Steven A.
2017-08-01
In April 2006, the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) launched aboard the CALIPSO satellite and into the A-Train constellation of satellites with its transmitter pointed near nadir. This proved problematic due to specular reflection from horizontally oriented ice crystals occurring more frequently than expected. Because the specular backscatter from oriented ice crystals has large attenuated backscatter and almost no depolarization, the standard lidar inversions cannot be applied. To mitigate this issue, the CALIOP transmitter was moved to 3° off nadir in November 2007. Though problematic for global CALIOP retrievals, the sensitivity to oriented ice during the first year of observations provides a unique data set to investigate scenes of this ice crystal signature. This study focuses on the CALIOP-oriented signature that occurs in midlatitude ocean regions whose cloud tops are relatively warm and low, existing below 6 km. A significant seasonal dependence is found in the Northern Hemisphere with up to 19% of clouds below 6 km yielding specular reflection by CALIOP during the colder months. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere lacks such seasonal dependence and sees fewer oriented ice crystals. Using collocated CloudSat observations with both CALIOP and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), we investigate the correlations of the oriented signature with MODIS cloud properties. Comparing with CloudSat precipitation retrievals, we find that the oriented signature is strongly correlated with surface precipitation with 64% of CALIOP-oriented ice crystal cases precipitating compared to 40% for nonoriented cases.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ashouri, H.; Hsu, K.; Sorooshian, S.; Braithwaite, D.; Knapp, K. R.; Cecil, L. D.
2013-12-01
PERSIANN Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a new retrospective satellite-based precipitation data set that is constructed for long-term hydrological and climate studies. The PERSIANN-CDR is a near-global (60°S-60°N) long-term (1980-2012), multi-satellite, high-resolution precipitation product that provides rain rate estimates at 0.25° and daily spatiotemporal resolution. PERSIANN-CDR is aimed at addressing the need for a consistent, long-term, high resolution precipitation data set for studying the spatial and temporal variations and changes of precipitation patterns, particularly in a scale relevant to climate extremes at the global scale. PERSIANN-CDR is generated from the PERSIANN algorithm using GridSat-B1 infrared data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). PERSIANN-CDR is adjusted using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation to maintain consistency of two data sets at 2.5° monthly scale throughout the entire reconstruction period. PERSIANN-CDR daily precipitation data demonstrates considerable consistency with both GPCP monthly and GPCP 1DD precipitation products. Verification studies over Hurricane Katrina show that PERSIANN-CDR has a good agreement with NCEP Stage IV radar data, noting that PERSIANN-CDR has better spatial coverage. In addition, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of PERSIANN-CDR over the contiguous United States was compared with the PDFs extracted from CPC gauge data and the TMPA precipitation product. The experiment also shows good agreement of the PDF of PERSIANN-CDR with the PDFs of TMPA and CPC gauge data. The application of PERSIANN-CDR in regional and global drought monitoring is investigated. Consisting of more than three decades of high-resolution precipitation data, PERSIANN-CDR makes us capable of long-term assessment of droughts at a higher resolution (0.25°) than previously possible. The results will be presented at the meeting.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fortin, Vincent; Roy, Guy; Donaldson, Norman; Mahidjiba, Ahmed
2015-12-01
The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) is a data analysis system used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) since April 2011 to produce gridded 6-h and 24-h precipitation accumulations in near real-time on a regular grid covering all of North America. The current resolution of the product is 10-km. Due to the low density of the observational network in most of Canada, the system relies on a background field provided by the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) of Environment Canada, which is a short-term weather forecasting system for North America. For this reason, the North American configuration of CaPA is known as the Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA). Early in the development of the CaPA system, weather radar reflectivity was identified as a very promising additional data source for the precipitation analysis, but necessary quality control procedures and bias-correction algorithms were lacking for the radar data. After three years of development and testing, a new version of CaPA-RDPA system was implemented in November 2014 at CMC. This version is able to assimilate radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from all 31 operational Canadian weather radars. The radar QPE is used as an observation source and not as a background field, and is subject to a strict quality control procedure, like any other observation source. The November 2014 upgrade to CaPA-RDPA was implemented at the same time as an upgrade to the RDPS system, which brought minor changes to the skill and bias of CaPA-RDPA. This paper uses the frequency bias indicator (FBI), the equitable threat score (ETS) and the departure from the partial mean (DPM) in order to assess the improvements to CaPA-RDPA brought by the assimilation of radar QPE. Verification focuses on the 6-h accumulations, and is done against a network of 65 synoptic stations (approximately two stations per radar) that were withheld from the station data assimilated by Ca
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The feedback between soil moisture and precipitation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving weather and seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed mechanism assumes a control of soil moisture on precipitation via the partitioning of the surface fluxes (the Evaporative F...
Fibrillar amyloid correlates of preclinical cognitive decline.
Stonnington, Cynthia M; Chen, Kewei; Lee, Wendy; Locke, Dona E C; Dueck, Amylou C; Liu, Xiaofen; Roontiva, Auttawut; Fleisher, Adam S; Caselli, Richard J; Reiman, Eric M
2014-01-01
It is not known whether preclinical cognitive decline is associated with fibrillar β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition irrespective of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 status. From a prospective observational study of 623 cognitively normal individuals, we identified all subjects who showed preclinical decline of at least 2 standard deviations beyond the decline of the entire group in memory or executive function. Fourteen decliners were matched by APOE ε4 gene dose, age, sex, and education with 14 nondecliners. Dynamic Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) scans, the Logan method, statistical parametric mapping, and automatically labeled regions of interest were used to characterize and compare cerebral-to-cerebellar PiB distribution volume ratios (DVRs), reflecting fibrillar Aβ burden. At P < .005 (uncorrected), decliners had significantly greater DVRs in comparison to nondecliners. Asymptomatic longitudinal neuropsychological decline is associated with subsequent increased fibrillar amyloid deposition, even when controlling for APOE ε4 genotype. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.
2012-11-01
We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.
Hudson, M. A.; Young, R. P.; D’Urban Jackson, J.; Orozco-terWengel, P.; Martin, L.; James, A.; Sulton, M.; Garcia, G.; Griffiths, R. A.; Thomas, R.; Magin, C.; Bruford, M. W.; Cunningham, A. A.
2016-01-01
Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity’s targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis. PMID:27485994
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jütten, Thomas; Jackisch, Dominik; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne
2016-04-01
Water is one of the most crucial natural resources in West Africa, where the livelihoods of large parts of the population rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, the modelling of the water balance is an important tool to aid in water resource management. Precipitation is one of most important atmospheric drivers of hydrological models. However, ground-based observation networks are sparse in Western Africa and a further decline in station numbers due to a variety of reasons such as the deterioration of stations or political unrest has been observed in recent years. In ungauged river basins, or basins with insufficiently available precipitation data, several studies have shown that remotely sensed or reanalysed precipitation data may be used to compliment or replace missing information. However, the uncertainties of these datasets over Western Africa are not well examined and a need for further studies is apparent. For validation purposes, precipitation datasets are traditionally compared to in-situ ground measurements. This is not possible in ungauged basins. A new approach to assess the quality of satellite and reanalysis data which is gaining popularity among researchers compares different precipitation datasets using hydrological models. In this so-called hydrological evaluation, ground-truth data is no longer necessary in order to validate a product. The chosen model is calibrated for different precipitation products and the simulated streamflow generated for each product is compared to the measured streamflow. Multiple state of the art satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets with various spatial resolutions were used in this study, namely: CFSR (0.3125°), CHIRPS (0.05°), CMORPH (0.25°), PERSIANN (0.25°), RFE 2.0 (0.1°), TAMSAT (0.0375°), TRMM 3B42 v7 (0.25°) and TRMM 3B42RT (real time) (0.25°). These datasets were evaluated at the regional as well as local scale using the HBV light conceptual hydrological model for several basins
Using Extreme Tropical Precipitation Statistics to Constrain Future Climate States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Igel, M.; Biello, J. A.
2017-12-01
Tropical precipitation is characterized by a rapid growth in mean intensity as the column humidity increases. This behavior is examined in both a cloud resolving model and with high-resolution observations of precipitation and column humidity from CloudSat and AIRS, respectively. The model and the observations exhibit remarkable consistency and suggest a new paradigm for extreme precipitation. We show that the total precipitation can be decomposed into a product of contributions from a mean intensity, a probability of precipitation, and a global PDF of column humidity values. We use the modeling and observational results to suggest simple, analytic forms for each of these functions. The analytic representations are then used to construct a simple expression for the global accumulated precipitation as a function of the parameters of each of the component functions. As the climate warms, extreme precipitation intensity and global precipitation are expected to increase, though at different rates. When these predictions are incorporated into the new analytic expression for total precipitation, predictions for changes due to global warming to the probability of precipitation and the PDF of column humidity can be made. We show that strong constraints can be imposed on the future shape of the PDF of column humidity but that only weak constraints can be set on the probability of precipitation. These are largely imposed by the intensification of extreme precipitation. This result suggests that understanding precisely how extreme precipitation responds to climate warming is critical to predicting other impactful properties of global hydrology. The new framework can also be used to confirm and discount existing theories for shifting precipitation.
γ' Precipitation Study of a Co-Ni-Based Alloy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Locq, D.; Martin, M.; Ramusat, C.; Fossard, F.; Perrut, M.
2018-05-01
A Co-Ni-based alloy strengthened by γ'-(L12) precipitates was utilized to investigate the precipitation evolution after various cooling rates and several aging conditions. In this study, the precipitate size and volume fraction have been studied via scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. The influence of the precipitation evolution was measured via microhardness tests. The cooling rate study shows a more sluggish γ' precipitation reaction compared to that observed in a Ni-based superalloy. Following a rapid cooling rate, the application of appropriate double aging treatments allows for the increase of the γ' volume fraction as well as the control of the size and distribution of the precipitates. The highest hardness values reach those measured on supersolvus cast and wrought Ni-based superalloys. The observed γ' precipitation behavior should have implications for the production, the heat treatment, the welding, or the additive manufacturing of this new class of high-temperature materials.
Climate Change Predominantly Caused U.S. Soil Water Storage Decline from 2003 to 2014
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, X.; Ma, C.; Song, X.; Gao, L.; Liu, M.; Xu, X.
2016-12-01
The water storage in soils is a fundamental resource for natural ecosystems and human society, while it is highly variable due to its complicated controlling factors in a changing climate; therefore, understanding water storage variation and its controlling factors is essential for sustaining human society, which relies on water resources. Although we are confident for water availability at global scale, the regional-scale water storage and its controlling factors are not fully understood. A number of researchers have reported that water resources are expected to diminish as climate continues warming in the 21stcentury, which will further influence human and ecological systems. However, few studies to date have fully quantitatively examined the water balances and its individual controlling mechanisms in the conterminous US. In this study, we integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite imageries, regional meteorological data, and social-economic water consumption, to quantify water storage dynamics and its controlling factors across the conterminous US from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found in majority of conterminous US, with the largest decline in southwestern US. Net atmospheric water input, which is difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, could explain more than 50% of the inter-annual variation of water storage variation in majority of US with minor contributions from human water consumption. Climate change, expressed as precipitation decreases and warming, made dominant contribution to the water storage decline in the conterminous U.S. from 2003 to 2014.
Adams, Rick A
2010-08-01
Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.
An assessment of mean annual precipitation in Rajasthan, India needed to maintain Mid-Holocene lakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gill, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Molnar, P. H.
2013-12-01
Paleo-climate literature reports evidence of freshwater lakes over Rajasthan, a region of northwestern India, during the mid-Holocene (~6ka), where desert conditions prevail in present time. It's suggested that mid-Holocene temperatures were warmer, precipitation was nearly double current levels, and there was an enhanced La Niña-like state. While previous analyses infer the lakes were sustained by generally high precipitation and low evaporation, we provide a systematic analysis on the relevant energy budget quantities and the dynamic relationships between them. We have built a hydrological lake model to reconstruct lake levels throughout the Holocene. Model output is evaporation from the lake. Inputs are precipitation over the lake and catchment runoff, determined using precipitation, Preistley-Taylor evapotranspiration, interception and infiltration. Initial tests of the model have been completed with current climate conditions to ensure accurate behavior. Contemporary runs used station precipitation and temperature data [Rajeevan et al., 2006] for the region surrounding Lake Didwana (27°N 74°E). Digital elevation maps were used to compile lake bathymetry for Lake Didwana. Under current climate conditions, a full Lake Didwana (~ 9 m) empties over the first several years. While lake depth varies yearly, increasing with each monsoon season, variations following the initial decline are minimal (~ × 1.0 m). We ran the model with a 2000-year sequence of precipitation and temperature generated by resampling the observed weather sequences, with a suite of base line fractions of vegetation cover and increased precipitation, with solar insolation appropriate during the mid-Holocene period. Initial runs revealed that precipitation amount and percent of vegetated catchment area influence lake levels, but insolation alone does not. Incrementally changing precipitation (between current levels and a 75% increase) and percent of vegetated area (between 10-90%) reveals that
Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
Ahlers, Adam A.; Cotner, Lisa A.; Wolff, Patrick J.; Mitchell, Mark A.; Heske, Edward J.; Schooley, Robert L.
2015-01-01
Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models. PMID:26284916
Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals.
Ahlers, Adam A; Cotner, Lisa A; Wolff, Patrick J; Mitchell, Mark A; Heske, Edward J; Schooley, Robert L
2015-01-01
Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007-2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.
Importance of orographic precipitation to the water resources of Monteverde, Costa Rica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guswa, Andrew J.; Rhodes, Amy L.; Newell, Silvia E.
2007-10-01
Monteverde, Costa Rica harbors montane forests that exemplify the delicate balances among climate, hydrology, habitat, and development. Most of the annual precipitation to this region arrives during the wet season, but the importance of orographic precipitation during the dry and transitional seasons should not be underestimated. Development associated with ecotourism has put significant stress on water resources, and recent work has shown evidence that changes in regional land-cover and global climate may lead to reduced precipitation and cloud cover and a subsequent decline in endemic species. Precipitation samples collected from 2003 to 2005 reveal a seasonal signal in stable isotope composition, as measured by δ 18O and δ 2H, that is heaviest during the dry and transitional seasons. Attenuated versions of this signal propagate through to stream samples and provide a means of determining the importance of precipitation delivered by the trade winds during the dry and transitional seasons to water resources for the region. Results from six catchments on the leeward slope indicate that topography exerts a strong control on the importance of orographic precipitation to stream baseflow. The contributions are greatest in those catchments that are close to the Brillante Gap in the Continental Divide. Differences in the temporal variation of precipitation and streamflow isotope compositions provide insight to the hydrologic pathways that move water to the streams.
Formation of copper precipitates in silicon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flink, Christoph; Feick, Henning; McHugo, Scott A.; Mohammed, Amna; Seifert, Winfried; Hieslmair, Henry; Heiser, Thomas; Istratov, Andrei A.; Weber, Eicke R.
1999-12-01
The formation of copper precipitates in silicon was studied after high-temperature intentional contamination of p- and n-type FZ and Cz-grown silicon and quench to room temperature. With the Transient Ion Drift (TID) technique on p-type silicon a critical Fermi level position at EC-0.2 eV was found. Only if the Fermi level position, which is determined by the concentrations of the acceptors and the copper donors, surpasses this critical value precipitation takes place. If the Fermi level is below this level the supersaturated interstitial copper diffuses out. An electrostatic precipitation model is introduced that correlates the observed precipitation behavior with the electrical activity of the copper precipitates as detected with Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy (DLTS) on n-type and with Minority Carrier Transient Spectroscopy (MCTS) on p-type silicon.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward
2015-04-01
While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation
Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong
2012-01-01
Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.
Tangborn, Wendell V.
1980-01-01
Snowmelt runoff is forecast with a statistical model that utilizes daily values of stream discharge, gaged precipitation, and maximum and minimum observations of air temperature. Synoptic observations of these variables are made at existing low- and medium-altitude weather stations, thus eliminating the difficulties and expense of new, high-altitude installations. Four model development steps are used to demonstrate the influence on prediction accuracy of basin storage, a preforecast test season, air temperature (to estimate ablation), and a prediction based on storage. Daily ablation is determined by a technique that employs both mean temperature and a radiative index. Radiation (both long- and short-wave components) is approximated by using the range in daily temperature, which is shown to be closely related to mean cloud cover. A technique based on the relationship between prediction error and prediction season weather utilizes short-term forecasts of precipitation and temperature to improve the final prediction. Verification of the model is accomplished by a split sampling technique for the 1960–1977 period. Short- term (5–15 days) predictions of runoff throughout the main snowmelt season are demonstrated for mountain drainages in western Washington, south-central Arizona, western Montana, and central California. The coefficient of prediction (Cp) based on actual, short-term predictions for 18 years is for Thunder Creek (Washington), 0.69; for South Fork Flathead River (Montana), 0.45; for the Black River (Arizona), 0.80; and for the Kings River (California), 0.80.
Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pan, C. J.; Krishna Reddy, K.; Lai, H. C.; Yang, S. S.
2010-01-01
L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB) around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type) clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow) at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms-1 km-1 and 3.2 ms-1 km-1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.
Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.
2016-12-01
Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.
Devaraju, N.; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman
2015-01-01
In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures. PMID:25733889
Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman
2015-03-17
In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.
Applications of Precipitation Feature Databases from GPM core and constellation Satellites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, C.
2017-12-01
Using the observations from Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) core and constellation satellites, global precipitation was quantitatively described from the perspective of precipitation systems and their properties. This presentation will introduce the development of precipitation feature databases, and several scientific questions that have been tackled using this database, including the topics of global snow precipitation, extreme intensive convection, hail storms, extreme precipitation, and microphysical properties derived with dual frequency radars at the top of convective cores. As more and more observations of constellation satellites become available, it is anticipated that the precipitation feature approach will help to address a large variety of scientific questions in the future. For anyone who is interested, all the current precipitation feature databases are freely open to public at: http://atmos.tamucc.edu/trmm/.
Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A
2016-07-01
Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with
Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.
2017-11-01
The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.
Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2
Silva, Lucas C. R.; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D.
2010-01-01
Background The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios. PMID:20657763
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lin, Xin; Zhang, Sara Q.; Zupanski, M.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, J.
2015-01-01
High-frequency TMI and AMSR-E radiances, which are sensitive to precipitation over land, are assimilated into the Goddard Weather Research and Forecasting Model- Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRF-EDAS) for a few heavy rain events over the continental US. Independent observations from surface rainfall, satellite IR brightness temperatures, as well as ground-radar reflectivity profiles are used to evaluate the impact of assimilating rain-sensitive radiances on cloud and precipitation within WRF-EDAS. The evaluations go beyond comparisons of forecast skills and domain-mean statistics, and focus on studying the cloud and precipitation features in the jointed rainradiance and rain-cloud space, with particular attentions on vertical distributions of height-dependent cloud types and collective effect of cloud hydrometers. Such a methodology is very helpful to understand limitations and sources of errors in rainaffected radiance assimilations. It is found that the assimilation of rain-sensitive radiances can reduce the mismatch between model analyses and observations by reasonably enhancing/reducing convective intensity over areas where the observation indicates precipitation, and suppressing convection over areas where the model forecast indicates rain but the observation does not. It is also noted that instead of generating sufficient low-level warmrain clouds as in observations, the model analysis tends to produce many spurious upperlevel clouds containing small amount of ice water content. This discrepancy is associated with insufficient information in ice-water-sensitive radiances to address the vertical distribution of clouds with small amount of ice water content. Such a problem will likely be mitigated when multi-channel multi-frequency radiances/reflectivity are assimilated over land along with sufficiently accurate surface emissivity information to better constrain the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometers.
Advances in Satellite Microwave Precipitation Retrieval Algorithms Over Land
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, N. Y.; You, Y.; Ferraro, R. R.
2015-12-01
Precipitation plays a key role in the earth's climate system, particularly in the aspect of its water and energy balance. Satellite microwave (MW) observations of precipitation provide a viable mean to achieve global measurement of precipitation with sufficient sampling density and accuracy. However, accurate precipitation information over land from satellite MW is a challenging problem. The Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) algorithm for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is built around the Bayesian formulation (Evans et al., 1995; Kummerow et al., 1996). GPROF uses the likelihood function and the prior probability distribution function to calculate the expected value of precipitation rate, given the observed brightness temperatures. It is particularly convenient to draw samples from a prior PDF from a predefined database of observations or models. GPROF algorithm does not search all database entries but only the subset thought to correspond to the actual observation. The GPM GPROF V1 database focuses on stratification by surface emissivity class, land surface temperature and total precipitable water. However, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed to subset the database for different conditions. To this end, we conduct a database stratification study of using National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and reanalysis data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Our database study (You et al., 2015) shows that environmental factors such as surface elevation, relative humidity, and storm vertical structure and height, and ice thickness can help in stratifying a single large database to smaller and more homogeneous subsets, in which the surface condition and precipitation vertical profiles are similar. It is found that the probability of detection (POD) increases
Satellite-Based Precipitation Datasets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Munchak, S. J.; Huffman, G. J.
2017-12-01
Of the possible sources of precipitation data, those based on satellites provide the greatest spatial coverage. There is a wide selection of datasets, algorithms, and versions from which to choose, which can be confusing to non-specialists wishing to use the data. The International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) maintains tables of the major publicly available, long-term, quasi-global precipitation data sets (http://www.isac.cnr.it/ ipwg/data/datasets.html), and this talk briefly reviews the various categories. As examples, NASA provides two sets of quasi-global precipitation data sets: the older Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and current Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). Both provide near-real-time and post-real-time products that are uniformly gridded in space and time. The TMPA products are 3-hourly 0.25°x0.25° on the latitude band 50°N-S for about 16 years, while the IMERG products are half-hourly 0.1°x0.1° on 60°N-S for over 3 years (with plans to go to 16+ years in Spring 2018). In addition to the precipitation estimates, each data set provides fields of other variables, such as the satellite sensor providing estimates and estimated random error. The discussion concludes with advice about determining suitability for use, the necessity of being clear about product names and versions, and the need for continued support for satellite- and surface-based observation.
Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.
2015-04-01
Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan
2017-04-01
Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.; Gu, Guojun; Nelkin, Eric J.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Stocker, Erich; Wolff, David B.
2006-01-01
The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) provides a calibration-based sequential scheme for combining multiple precipitation estimates from satellites, as well as gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees and 3-hourly). It is available both after and in real time, based on calibration by the TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation products, respectively. Only the after-real-time product incorporates gauge data at the present. The data set covers the latitude band 50 degrees N-S for the period 1998 to the delayed present. Early validation results are as follows: The TMPA provides reasonable performance at monthly scales, although it is shown to have precipitation rate dependent low bias due to lack of sensitivity to low precipitation rates in one of the input products (based on AMSU-B). At finer scales the TMPA is successful at approximately reproducing the surface-observation-based histogram of precipitation, as well as reasonably detecting large daily events. The TMPA, however, has lower skill in correctly specifying moderate and light event amounts on short time intervals, in common with other fine-scale estimators. Examples are provided of a flood event and diurnal cycle determination.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zavodsky, B.; Dunion, J.; Blackwell, W.; Braun, S.; Velden, C.; Brennan, M.; Adler, R.
2017-01-01
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of SmallSats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of state-of-the-science observing platforms that will measure temperature and humidity soundings and precipitation with spatial resolution comparable to current operational passive microwave sounders but with unprecedented temporal resolution. TROPICS is a cost-capped ($30 million) Venture-class mission funded by the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) and led by principal investigator Dr. William Blackwell from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL). The mission is comprised of a constellation of six, three-unit (3U) Cube-Sats (approximately 10 by 10 by 34 centimeters), each hosting a 12-channel passive microwave spectrometer based on the Micro-sized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite 2 (MicroMAS-2) developed at MIT LL. TROPICS will provide imagery at frequencies near 91 and 205 gigahertz, temperature sounding near 118 gigahertz, and moisture sounding near 183 gigahertz. Spatial resolution at nadir will be around 27 kilometers for temperature and 17 kilometers for moisture and precipitation with a swath width of approximately 2,000 kilometers. Both the spatial resolution and swath width are similar to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) that is being flown as part of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership and will fly starting in 2017 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). In addition, TROPICS meets many of the requirements outlined in the 2007 Decadal Survey for the Precision and All-Weather Temperature and Humidity mission, which was originally envisioned as a microwave instrument in geostationary orbit. TROPICS enables temporal resolution similar to geostationary orbit but at a much lower cost, demonstrating a technology that could impact the design of future
Attribution analysis of runoff decline in a semiarid region of the Loess Plateau, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Binquan; Liang, Zhongmin; Zhang, Jianyun; Wang, Guoqing; Zhao, Weimin; Zhang, Hongyue; Wang, Jun; Hu, Yiming
2018-01-01
Climate variability and human activities are two main contributing attributions for runoff changes in the Yellow River, China. In the loess hilly-gully regions of the middle Yellow River, water shortage has been a serious problem, and this results in large-scale constructions of soil and water conservation (SWC) measures in the past decades in order to retain water for agricultural irrigation and industrial production. This disturbed the natural runoff characteristics. In this paper, we focused on a typical loess hilly-gully region (Wudinghe and Luhe River basins) and investigated the effects of SWC measures and climate variability on runoff during the period of 1961-2013, while the SWC measures were the main representative of human activities in this region. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the changes of annual precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and runoff. The analysis revealed the decrease in precipitation, significant rise in temperature, and remarkable runoff reduction with a rate of more than 0.4 mm per year. It was found that runoff capacity in this region also decreased. Using the change point detection methods, the abrupt change point of annual runoff series was found at 1970, and thus, the study period was divided into the baseline period (1961-1970) and changed period (1971-2013). A conceptual framework based on four statistical runoff methods was used for attribution analysis of runoff decline in the Wudinghe and Luhe River basins (-37.3 and -56.4%, respectively). Results showed that runoff reduction can be explained by 85.2-90.3% (83.3-85.7%) with the SWC measures in the Wudinghe (Luhe) River basin while the remaining proportions were caused by climate variability. The findings suggested that the large-scale SWC measures demonstrated a dominant influence on runoff decline, and the change of precipitation extreme was also a promoting factor of the upward trending of SWC measures' contribution to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marsicek, Jeremiah P.; Shuman, Bryan; Brewer, Simon; Foster, David R.; Oswald, W. Wyatt
2013-11-01
A decline of hemlock (Tsuga) populations at ca 5.5 ka (thousands of calibrated radiocarbon years before 1950 AD) stands out as the most abrupt vegetation change of the Holocene in North America, but remains poorly understood after decades of study. Recent analyses of fossil pollen have revealed a concurrent, abrupt oak (Quercus) decline and increases in the abundance of beech (Fagus) and pine (Pinus) on Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts, but the replacement of drought-tolerant oaks by moisture-sensitive beeches appears inconsistent with low lake levels in the region at the same time. The oak and beech changes are also limited to coastal areas, and the coastal-inland differences require an explanation. Here, we develop a new lake-level reconstruction from Deep Pond, Cape Cod by using a transect of sediment cores and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles to constrain the past elevations of the sandy, littoral zone of the pond. The reconstruction shows that a series of multi-century episodes of low water coincide with the abrupt hemlock and oak declines, and interrupt subsequent phases of hemlock recovery. The lake-level variations equal precipitation deficits of ˜100 mm superimposed on a Holocene long moisture increase of >400 mm. However, because moisture deficits do not easily explain the oak and beech changes, we also evaluate how the climate preferences of the regional vegetation changed over time by matching the fossil pollen assemblages from Deep Pond with their modern equivalents. Reconstructions of the precipitation requirements of the vegetation correlate well even in detail with the lake-level record (r = 0.88 at Deep Pond), and indicate close tracking of effective moisture (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) by the vegetation despite the abrupt species declines, which could have decoupled climate and vegetation trends. Reconstructions of the temperature preferences of the vegetation indicate that coastal sites may have cooled by 0.5-2.5 °C after
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Okawa, Yayoi; Nakamura, Shigemi; Kudo, Minako; Ueda, Satoshi
2009-01-01
The purpose of this study is to confirm the working hypothesis on two major models of functioning decline and two corresponding models of rehabilitation program in an older population through detailed interviews with the persons who have functioning declines and on-the-spot observations of key activities on home visits. A total of 542…
Hydrodynamic Fingering Instability Induced by a Precipitation Reaction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nagatsu, Y.; Ishii, Y.; Tada, Y.; De Wit, A.
2014-07-01
We experimentally demonstrate that a precipitation reaction at the miscible interface between two reactive solutions can trigger a hydrodynamic instability due to the buildup of a locally adverse mobility gradient related to a decrease in permeability. The precipitate results from an A +B→C type of reaction when a solution containing one of the reactants is injected into a solution of the other reactant in a porous medium or a Hele-Shaw cell. Fingerlike precipitation patterns are observed upon displacement, the properties of which depend on whether A displaces B or vice versa. A mathematical modeling of the underlying mobility profile confirms that the instability originates from a local decrease in mobility driven by the localized precipitation. Nonlinear simulations of the related reaction-diffusion-convection model reproduce the properties of the instability observed experimentally. In particular, the simulations suggest that differences in diffusivity between A and B may contribute to the asymmetric characteristics of the fingering precipitation patterns.
A macrophysical life cycle description for precipitating systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Evaristo, Raquel; Xie, Xinxin; Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Simon, Juergen; Simmer, Clemens
2014-05-01
The lack of understanding of cloud and precipitation processes is still the overarching problem of climate simulation, and prediction. The work presented is part of the HD(CP)2 project (High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Predictions) which aims at building a very high resolution model in order to evaluate and exploit regional hindcasts for the purpose of parameterization development. To this end, an observational object-based climatology for precipitation systems will be built, and shall later be compared with a twin model-based climatological data base for pseudo precipitation events within an event-based model validation approach. This is done by identifying internal structures, described by means of macrophysical descriptors used to characterize the temporal development of tracked rain events. 2 pre-requisites are necessary for this: 1) a tracking algorithm, and 2) 3D radar/satellite composite. Both prerequisites are ready to be used, and have already been applied to a few case studies. Some examples of these macrophysical descriptors are differential reflectivity columns, bright band fraction and trend, cloud top heights, the spatial extent of updrafts or downdrafts or the ice content. We will show one case study from August 5th 2012, when convective precipitation was observed simultaneously by the BOXPOL and JUXPOL X-band polarimetric radars. We will follow the main paths identified by the tracking algorithm during this event and identify in the 3D composite the descriptors that characterize precipitation development, their temporal evolution, and the different macrophysical processes that are ultimately related to the precipitation observed. In a later stage these observations will be compared to the results of hydrometeor classification algorithm, in order to link the macrophysical and microphysical aspects of the storm evolution. The detailed microphysical processes are the subject of a closely related work also presented in this
A global satellite-assisted precipitation climatology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Funk, C.; Verdin, A.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Pedreros, D.; Husak, G.
2015-10-01
Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high-resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data-sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate
Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong
2011-01-01
Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jieying, HE; Shengwei, ZHANG; Na, LI
2017-02-01
A passive sub-millimeter precipitation retrievals algorithm is provided based on Microwave Humidity and Temperature Sounder (MWHTS) onboard the Chinese Feng Yun 3C (FY-3C) satellite. Using the validated global reference physical model NCEP/WRF/VDISORT), NCEP data per 6 hours are downloaded to run the Weather Research and Forecast model WRF, and derive the typical precipitation data from the whole world. The precipitation retrieval algorithm can operate either on land or on seawater for global. To simply the calculation procedure and save the training time, principle component analysis (PCA) was adapted to filter out the redundancy caused by scanning angle and surface effects, as well as system noise. According to the comparison and validation combing with other precipitation sources, it is demonstrated that the retrievals are reliable for surface precipitation rate higher than 0.1 mm/h at 15km resolution.
Hack, Juliana; Eschbach, Daphne; Aigner, Rene; Oberkircher, Ludwig; Ruchholtz, Steffen; Bliemel, Christopher; Buecking, Benjamin
2018-03-01
The aim of this study was to identify factors that are associated with cognitive decline in the long-term follow-up after hip fractures in previously nondemented patients. A consecutive series of 402 patients with hip fractures admitted to our university hospital were analyzed. After exclusion of all patients with preexisting dementia, 266 patients were included, of which 188 could be examined 6 months after surgery. Additional to several demographic data, cognitive ability was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Patients with 19 or less points on the MMSE were considered demented. Furthermore, geriatric scores were recorded, as well as perioperative medical complications. Mini-Mental State Examination was performed again 6 months after surgery. Of 188 previously nondemented patients, 12 (6.4%) patients showed a cognitive decline during the 6 months of follow-up. Multivariate regression analysis showed that age ( P = .040) and medical complications ( P = .048) were the only significant independent influencing factors for cognitive decline. In our patient population, the incidence of dementia exceeded the average age-appropriate cognitive decline. Significant independent influencing factors for cognitive decline were age and medical complications.
Philip M. Wargo; David R. Houston; Leon A. LaMadeleine
1983-01-01
Periodic occurrences of decline and death of oaks over widespread areas have been recorded since 1900. These outbreaks, variously named oak decline, oak dieback, or oak mortality, are caused by a complex interaction of environmental stresses and pests and given the name oak decline.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burnik Šturm, Martina; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Voigt, Christian C.; Kaczensky, Petra
2017-04-01
Hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope values of water are widely used to track the global hydrological cycle and the global δ2H and δ18O patterns of precipitation are increasingly used in studies on animal migration, forensics, food authentication and traceability studies. However, δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation spanning one or more years are available for only a few 100 locations worldwide and for many remote areas such as Mongolia data are still scarce. We obtained the first field-based δ2H and δ18O isotope data of event-based precipitation, rivers and other water bodies in the extreme environment of the Dzungarian Gobi desert in SW Mongolia, covering a period of 16 months (1). Our study area is located over 450 km north-east from the nearest IAEA GNIP station (Fukang station, China) from which it is separated by a mountain range at the international border between China and Mongolia. Isotope values of the collected event-based precipitation showed and extreme range and a high seasonal variability with higher and more variable values in summer and lower in winter. The high variability could not be explained by different origin of air masses alone (i.e. NW polar winds over Russia or westerlies over Central Asia; analyzed using back-trajectory HYSPLIT model), but is likely a result of a combination of different processes affecting the isotope values of precipitation in this area. The calculated field-based local meteoric water line (LMWL, δ2H=(7.42±0.16)δ18O-(23.87±3.27)) showed isotopic characteristics of precipitation in an arid region. We observed a slight discrepancy between the filed based and modelled (Online Isotope in Precipitation Calculator, OIPC) LMWL which highlighted the difficulty of modelling the δ2H and δ18O values for areas with extreme climatic conditions and thus emphasized the importance of collecting long-term field-based data. The collected isotopic data of precipitation and other water bodies provide a basis for future
Catton, H.A.; St., George; Remphrey, W.R.
2007-01-01
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, has a large, indigenous population of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). In the 1980s, many of these trees were showing signs of decline, a disease caused by a complex of abiotic and secondary biotic stressing agents. Potential causal factors were investigated by comparing various aspects of 120 bur oaks visually rated as healthy or declined based on crown dieback levels. The results indicated that many selected bur oak trees predated surrounding urban development and that declined trees were significantly older with more severe stem wounds and competition from surrounding trees than healthy specimens. Average annual growth ring widths of healthy and declined trees were similar in the early part of the 20th century. However, decline actually began decades before symptoms were noticed, coinciding with a period of in tense city-wide urban development, as growth of declined trees was slower than that of healthy trees beginning sporadically in the 1940s and consistently from 1974 to 2001. During the early years of decline, the year-by-year separation in ring width between the two categories was significantly positively related to precipitation levels. This suggested that in wet years, declined trees may have been surrounded by unfavorable water-logged soils, possibly as a result of natural drainage patterns being impeded by urban development. ?? 2007 International Society of Arboriculture.
The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.
2017-12-01
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which
Amphibian recovery after a decrease in acidic precipitation.
Dolmen, Dag; Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt; Skei, Jon Kristian
2018-04-01
We here report the first sign of amphibian recovery after a strong decline due to acidic precipitation over many decades and peaking around 1980-90. In 2010, the pH level of ponds and small lakes in two heavily acidified areas in southwestern Scandinavia (Aust-Agder and Østfold in Norway) had risen significantly at an (arithmetic) average of 0.14 since 1988-89. Parallel with the general rise in pH, amphibians (Rana temporaria, R. arvalis, Bufo bufo, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Triturus cristatus) had become significantly more common: the frequency of amphibian localities rose from 33% to 49% (n = 115), and the average number of amphibian species per locality had risen from 0.51 to 0.88. In two other (reference) areas, one with better buffering capacity (Telemark, n = 21) and the other with much less input of acidic precipitation (Nord-Trøndelag, n = 106), there were no significant changes in pH or amphibians.
Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hur, Jina; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Liong, Shie-Yui
2018-05-01
The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000-2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Donghai; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Knapp, Alan K.; Wilcox, Kevin; Bahn, Michael; Smith, Melinda D.; Vicca, Sara; Fatichi, Simone; Zscheischler, Jakob; He, Yue; Li, Xiangyi; Ito, Akihiko; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna; Ukkola, Anna; Paschalis, Athanasios; Poulter, Benjamin; Peng, Changhui; Ricciuto, Daniel; Reinthaler, David; Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Genet, Hélène; Mao, Jiafu; Ingrisch, Johannes; Nabel, Julia E. S. M.; Pongratz, Julia; Boysen, Lena R.; Kautz, Markus; Schmitt, Michael; Meir, Patrick; Zhu, Qiuan; Hasibeder, Roland; Sippel, Sebastian; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Sitch, Stephen; Shi, Xiaoying; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi; Liu, Yongwen; Piao, Shilong
2018-06-01
Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results
Monitoring Precipitation from Space: targeting Hydrology Community?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hong, Y.; Turk, J.
2005-12-01
During the past decades, advances in space, sensor and computer technology have made it possible to estimate precipitation nearly globally from a variety of observations in a relatively direct manner. The success of Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM) has been a significant advance for modern precipitation estimation algorithms to move toward daily quarter degree measurements, while the need for precipitation data at temporal-spatial resolutions compatible with hydrologic modeling has been emphasized by the end user: hydrology community. Can the future deployment of Global Precipitation Measurement constellation of low-altitude orbiting satellites (covering 90% of the global with a sampling interval of less than 3-hours), in conjunction with the existing suite of geostationary satellites, results in significant improvements in scale and accuracy of precipitation estimates suitable for hydrology applications? This presentation will review the current state of satellite-derived precipitation estimation and demonstrate the early results and primary barriers to full global high-resolution precipitation coverage. An attempt to facilitate the communication between data producers and users will be discussed by developing an 'end-to-end' uncertainty propagation analysis framework to quantify both the precipitation estimation error structure and the error influence on hydrological modeling.
Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession
Villarreal, Andrés
2014-01-01
The rate of Mexico-U.S. migration has declined precipitously in recent years. From 25 migrants per thousand in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican men dropped to 7 per thousand by 2012. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. This study examines the origins of the migration decline using a nationally representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results support an explanation that attributes a large part of the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the United States. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers, such as construction, are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the Great Recession: namely, economically active young men with low education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants. PMID:25407844
Explaining the decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: the effect of the Great Recession.
Villarreal, Andrés
2014-12-01
The rate of Mexico-U.S. migration has declined precipitously in recent years. From 25 migrants per thousand in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican men dropped to 7 per thousand by 2012. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. This study examines the origins of the migration decline using a nationally representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results support an explanation that attributes a large part of the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the United States. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers, such as construction, are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the Great Recession: namely, economically active young men with low education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants.
Coral decline threatens fish biodiversity in marine reserves.
Jones, Geoffrey P; McCormick, Mark I; Srinivasan, Maya; Eagle, Janelle V
2004-05-25
The worldwide decline in coral cover has serious implications for the health of coral reefs. But what is the future of reef fish assemblages? Marine reserves can protect fish from exploitation, but do they protect fish biodiversity in degrading environments? The answer appears to be no, as indicated by our 8-year study in Papua New Guinea. A devastating decline in coral cover caused a parallel decline in fish biodiversity, both in marine reserves and in areas open to fishing. Over 75% of reef fish species declined in abundance, and 50% declined to less than half of their original numbers. The greater the dependence species have on living coral as juvenile recruitment sites, the greater the observed decline in abundance. Several rare coral-specialists became locally extinct. We suggest that fish biodiversity is threatened wherever permanent reef degradation occurs and warn that marine reserves will not always be sufficient to ensure their survival.
Merging Satellite Precipitation Products for Improved Streamflow Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Barbetta, S.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.
2017-12-01
Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. Therefore, we propose to merge SM2RAIN and the widely used TMPA 3B42RT product across Italy for a 6-year period (2010-2015) at daily/0.25deg temporal/spatial scale. Two conceptually different merging techniques are compared to each other and evaluated in terms of different statistical metrics, including hit bias, threat score, false alarm rates, and missed rainfall volumes. The first is based on the maximization of the temporal correlation with a reference dataset, while the second is based on a Bayesian approach, which provides a probabilistic satellite precipitation estimate derived from the joint probability distribution of observations and satellite estimates. The merged precipitation products show a better performance with respect to the parental satellite-based products in terms of categorical
Relating isotopic composition of precipitation to atmospheric patterns and local moisture recycling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Logan, K. E.; Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.
2016-12-01
Local land management practices such as irrigation significantly alter surface evapotranspiration (ET), regional boundary layer development, and potentially modify precipitation likelihood and amount. How strong this local forcing is in comparison to synoptic-scale dynamics, and how much ET is recycled locally as precipitation are areas of great uncertainty and are especially important when trying to forecast the impact of local land management strategies on drought mitigation. Stable isotope analysis has long been a useful tool for tracing movement throughout the water cycle. In this study, reanalysis data and stable isotope samples of precipitation events are used to estimate the contribution of local moisture recycling to precipitation at the Konza Prairie LTER - located in the Great Plains, downwind of intensive agricultural areas. From 2001 to 2014 samples of all precipitation events over 5mm were collected and 18O and D isotopes measured. Comparison of observed precipitation totals and MERRA and ERA-interim reanalysis totals is used to diagnose periods of strong local moisture contribution (especially from irrigation) to precipitation. Large discrepancies in precipitation between observation and reanalysis, particularly MERRA, tend to follow dry periods during the growing season, presumably because while ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture using observed surface temperature and humidity, MERRA includes no such local soil moisture adjustment and therefore lacks potential precipitation feedbacks induced by irrigation. The δ18O and δD signature of local irrigation recycling is evaluated using these incongruous observations. Self-organizing maps (SOM) are then used to identify a comprehensive range of synoptic conditions that result in precipitation at Konza LTER. Comparison of isotopic signature and SOM classification of rainfall events allows for identification of the primary moisture source and estimation of the contribution of locally recycled moisture. The
Ward, Derek J; Martino, Orsolina I; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew J
2013-01-01
Objective To describe trends in new drugs launched in the UK from 1982 to 2011 and test the hypothesis that the rate of new drug introductions has declined over the study period. There is wide concern that pharmaceutical innovation is declining. Reported trends suggest that fewer new drugs have been launched over recent decades, despite increasing investment into research and development. Design Retrospective observational study. Setting and data source Database of new preparations added annually to the British National Formulary (BNF). Main outcome measures The number of new drugs entered each year, including new chemical entities(NCEs) and new biological drugs, based on first appearance in the BNF. Results There was no significant linear trend in the number of new drugs introduced into the UK from 1982 to 2011. Following a dip in the mid-1980s (11–12 NCEs/new biologics introduced annually from 1985 to 1987), there was a variable increase in the numbers of new drugs introduced annually to a peak of 34 in 1997. This peak was followed by a decline to approximately 20 new drugs/year between 2003 and 2006, and another peak in 2010. Extending the timeline further back with existing published data shows an overall slight increase in new drug introductions of 0.16/year over the entire 1971 to 2011 period. Conclusions The purported ‘innovation dip’ is an artefact of the time periods previously studied. Reports of declining innovation need to be considered in the context of their timescale and perspective. PMID:23427198
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McConnell, E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Campbell, S. W.; Ferris, D. G.; Birkel, S. D.
2016-12-01
Precipitation in Alaska is sensitive to the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure system and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures, as shown by the increase in Alaskan sub-Arctic precipitation associated with the 1976 shift to the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Precipitation in the high-elevation accumulation zones of Alaskan alpine glaciers provides critical mass input for glacial mass balance, which has been declining in recent decades from warmer summer temperatures despite the winter precipitation increase. Twin >1500-year ice cores collected from the summit plateau of Mount Hunter in Denali National Park, Alaska show a remarkable doubling of annual snow accumulation over the past 150 years, with most of the change observed in the winter. Other alpine ice cores collected from the Alaska and Saint Elias ranges show similar snowfall increases over recent decades. However, although Alaskan weather stations at low elevation recorded a 7-38% increase in winter precipitation across the 1976 PDO transition, this increase is not as substantial as that recorded in the Mt. Hunter ice core. Weather stations at high-elevation alpine sites are comparatively rare, and reasons for the enhanced precipitation trends at high elevation in Alaska remain unclear. Here we use Automatic Weather Station data from the Mt. Hunter drill site (3,900 m a.s.l) and from nearby Denali climber's Base Camp (2,195 m a.s.l.) to evaluate the relationships between alpine and lowland Alaskan precipitation on annual, seasonal, and storm-event temporal scales from 2008-2016. Both stations are located on snow and have sonic snow depth sounders to record daily precipitation. We focus on the role of variable ALow and North Pacific High strength in influencing Alaskan precipitation elevational gradients, particularly in association with the extreme 2015-2016 El Niño event, the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño event, and the 2010-2011 moderate La Niña event. Our analysis will improve our
Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.
2017-12-01
Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.
Vernon Ammon; T. Evan Nebeker; Ted H. Filer; Francis I. McCracken; J. D. Solomon; H. E. Kennedy
1989-01-01
Occurrence of decline and mortality in this nation's hardwood forests has been documented in reports for the past 130 years. From 1856 through 1981, more than 26 decline events were reported from eight eastern states affecting almost all species of oaks. Fourteen factors have been implicated as either primary or secondary agents responsible for decline and...
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Byrne, G. J.; Few, A. A.; Stewart, M. F.; Conrad, A. C.; Torczon, R. L.
1987-01-01
Electric field measurements made inside a multicell severe storm in Oklahoma in 1983 with a balloon-borne instrument are presented. The properties of the electric charge regions, such as altitude, thickness, and charge concentrations, are studied. These measurements are analzyed with meteorological measurements of temperature and humidity, and balloon tracking and radar observations. The relation between the electric charge structure and the precipitation and kinematic features of the storm is examined. The data reveal that the cell exhibits a bipolar charge structure with negative charge below positive charge. The average charge concentrations of the two regions are estimated as -1.2 and 0.15 nC/cu m, respectively; the upper positive charge is about 6 km in vertical extent, and the lower negative charge is less than 1 km in vertical extent.
Hydrodynamic fingering instability induced by a precipitation reaction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
De Wit, Anne; Nagatsu, Yuichiro
2014-05-01
We experimentally demonstrate that a precipitation reaction at the miscible interface between two reactive solutions can trigger a hydrodynamic instability due to the build-up of a locally adverse mobility gradient related to a decrease in permeability. The precipitate results from an A+B → C type of reaction when a solution containing one of the reactant is injected into a solution of the other reactant in a porous medium or a Hele-Shaw cell. Finger-like precipitation patterns are observed upon displacement, the properties of which depend on whether A displaces B or vice-versa. A mathematical modeling of the underlying mobility profile in the cell reconstructed on the basis of one-dimensional reaction-diffusion concentration profiles confirms that the instability originates from a local decrease in mobility driven by the precipitation. Nonlinear simulations of the related reaction-diffusion-convection model reproduce the properties of the instability observed experimentally. In particular, the simulations suggest that differences in diffusivity between A and B may contribute to the asymmetric characteristics of the fingering precipitation patterns.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Itahashi, Syuichi; Uno, Itsushi; Hayami, Hiroshi; Fujita, Shin-ichi
2014-08-01
Anthropogenic emissions in East Asia have been increasing during the three decades since 1980, as the population of East Asia has grown and the economies in East Asian countries have expanded. This has been particularly true in China, where NOx emissions have been rising continuously. However, because of fuel-gas desulfurization systems introduced as part of China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), SO2 emissions in China reached a peak in 2005-2006 and have declined since then. These drastic changes in emission levels of acidifying species are likely to have caused substantial changes in the precipitation chemistry. The absolute concentration of compounds in precipitation is inherently linked to precipitation amount; therefore, we use the ratio of nitrate (NO) to non-seasalt sulfate (nss-SO2-) concentration in precipitation as an index for evaluating acidification, which we call Ratio. In this study, we analyzed the long-term behavior of Ratio in precipitation over the Japanese archipelago during 2000-2011 and estimated the factors responsible for changes in Ratio in precipitation by using a model simulation. This analysis showed that Ratio was relatively constant at 0.5-0.6 between 2000 and 2005, and subsequently increased to 0.6-0.7 between 2006 and 2011. These changes in Ratio corresponded remarkably well to the changes of NOx/SO2 emissions ratio in China; this correspondence suggests that anthropogenic emissions from China were responsible for most of the change in precipitation chemistry over Japan. Sensitivity analysis elucidated that the increase in NOx emissions and the decrease in SO2 emissions contributed equally to the increases in Ratio. Considering both emission changes in China enables to capture the observed increasing trend of Ratio in Japan.
Scaling Linguistic Characterization of Precipitation Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Primo, C.; Gutierrez, J. M.
2003-04-01
Rainfall variability is influenced by changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall. This problem is of great importance for hydrological, agricultural and ecological applications. Rainfall averages, or accumulations, are widely used as standard climatic parameters. However different aggregation schemes may lead to the same average or accumulated values. In this paper we present a fractal method to characterize different aggregation schemes. The method provides scaling exponents characterizing weekly or monthly rainfall patterns for a given station. To this aim, we establish an analogy with linguistic analysis, considering precipitation as a discrete variable (e.g., rain, no rain). Each weekly, or monthly, symbolic precipitation sequence of observed precipitation is then considered as a "word" (in this case, a binary word) which defines a specific weekly rainfall pattern. Thus, each site defines a "language" characterized by the words observed in that site during a period representative of the climatology. Then, the more variable the observed weekly precipitation sequences, the more complex the obtained language. To characterize these languages, we first applied the Zipf's method obtaining scaling histograms of rank ordered frequencies. However, to obtain significant exponents, the scaling must be maintained some orders of magnitude, requiring long sequences of daily precipitation which are not available at particular stations. Thus this analysis is not suitable for applications involving particular stations (such as regionalization). Then, we introduce an alternative fractal method applicable to data from local stations. The so-called Chaos-Game method uses Iterated Function Systems (IFS) for graphically representing rainfall languages, in a way that complex languages define complex graphical patterns. The box-counting dimension and the entropy of the resulting patterns are used as linguistic parameters to quantitatively characterize the complexity of the patterns
Precipitation chemistry of Lhasa and other remote towns, Tibet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, David D.; Peart, Mervyn; Jim, C. Y.; He, Y. Q.; Li, B. S.; Chen, J. A.
Precipitation event samples during 1987-1988 field expedition periods and 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 have been collected at Lhasa, Dingri, Dangxiong and Amdo, Tibet. The sampling and analysis were based on WMO recommendations for a background network with some modifications according to local conditions and environmental characteristics. The following precipitation constituents and related parameters were measured: pH, conductivity, CO 2 partial pressure, total suspended particles, and the content of K +, Na +, Ca 2+, Mg 2+, Fe, Mn, NH 4+, Cl -, NO 2-, NO 3-, SO42- Br-, HCO 3- and HPO 42-. Some atmospheric dust samples have also been collected. Over 300 precipitation events have been measured for pH and conductivity. Among these, 60 have been analysed for their chemical components. The results show that Lhasa's precipitation events were constantly alkaline with weighted averages of pH 8.36 in the 1987-1988 period, and 7.5 for 1997 to 1999. Only one event was weakly acidic during 1997-1999. Although CO 2 partial pressure, a major producer of acidity in natural water on the Plateau, falls with increasing elevation, the lowest measured CO 2 partial pressure can only raise pH value by 0.1 units in the sampling areas. Chemical analysis indicates that the major contributor to alkaline precipitation is the continental dust, which is rich in calcium. The analysis also shows that Tibet is still one of the cleanest areas in the world with little air pollution. However, the decline of pH from the 1980s to 1990s, which was reflected by an increase of NO 3- and SO 42- in precipitation, alerts us to the urgency of environmental protection in this fragile paradise.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stocker, Erich Franz; Kelley, O.; Kummerow, C.; Huffman, G.; Olson, W.; Kwiatkowski, J.
2015-01-01
In February 2015, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core satellite will complete its first year in space. The core satellite carries a conically scanning microwave imager called the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), which also has 166 GHz and 183 GHz frequency channels. The GPM core satellite also carries a dual frequency radar (DPR) which operates at Ku frequency, similar to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, and a new Ka frequency. The precipitation processing system (PPS) is producing swath-based instantaneous precipitation retrievals from GMI, both radars including a dual-frequency product, and a combined GMIDPR precipitation retrieval. These level 2 products are written in the HDF5 format and have many additional parameters beyond surface precipitation that are organized into appropriate groups. While these retrieval algorithms were developed prior to launch and are not optimal, these algorithms are producing very creditable retrievals. It is appropriate for a wide group of users to have access to the GPM retrievals. However, for researchers requiring only surface precipitation, these L2 swath products can appear to be very intimidating and they certainly do contain many more variables than the average researcher needs. Some researchers desire only surface retrievals stored in a simple easily accessible format. In response, PPS has begun to produce gridded text based products that contain just the most widely used variables for each instrument (surface rainfall rate, fraction liquid, fraction convective) in a single line for each grid box that contains one or more observations.This paper will describe the gridded data products that are being produced and provide an overview of their content. Currently two types of gridded products are being produced: (1) surface precipitation retrievals from the core satellite instruments GMI, DPR, and combined GMIDPR (2) surface precipitation retrievals for the partner constellation
Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Su; Xu, Wenhui; Xu, Yan; Li, Qingxiang
2016-04-01
Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shin, D. K.; Lee, D. Y.; Noh, S. J.; Cho, J.; Choi, C.; Hwang, J.; Lee, J.
2017-12-01
Statistical significance of the efficiency of electron loss into the atmosphere by EMIC waves has yet not been quantified through observations. To better understand the dynamics of the radiation belt particle, its quantification through observations is indispensable. In this study, we used a large number of the EMIC wave events identified near the equator for which we determined relativistic electron precipitation (REP) events using the observations at low earth orbit satellites (POES satellite series).We focused on the difference between the wave properties, geomagnetic conditions and background states during the EMIC waves between the event group (EMIC wave with REP) and non-event group (EMIC wave without REP). First, for 11.5 % of the EMIC wave events we were able to identify the REP events within an hour of MLT separation from the EMIC wave location. The majority ( 80 %) of the precipitation-inducing EMIC waves were found in 11 - 17 MLT. Second, geomagnetic conditions (most notably AE) are more often stronger for the event group than non-event group. Third, the EMIC waves of a stronger power and/or a longer duration are on average preferred for event group. Lastly, the majority of the EMIC waves with REP lie outside the plasmapause, most often at L being higher by 2 than the plasmapause locations. In conclusion, this is the first time report on a statistical assessment about the extent to which the EMIC waves directly measured in the equator can be responsible for REP and about their distinguishing features.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zawislak, J.
2017-12-01
This study contributes to a global survey of the precipitation properties of developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances, with a focus on distinguishing properties of those disturbances that develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) from those that do not develop. Precipitation properties are quantified using a unique accumulation of overpasses of pre-genesis TCs and nondeveloping disturbances from multiple satellite-borne passive microwave imagers. The overpasses are a subset of a broader Tropical Cyclone - Passive Microwave (TC-PMW) dataset that encompasses all stages of the TC life cycle. The TC-PMW consists of 14 years (2003-2016) of overpasses of pre-genesis and nondeveloping disturbances globally (the North Atlantic, East Pacific, Central Pacific, West Pacific, northern Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere oceanic basins). Nondeveloping disturbances are defined as those disturbances that do not exceed an "invest" classification by the operational centers (NHC, CPHC, and JTWC). Overall, this study will offer a detailed analysis of the precipitation properties (i.e., areal coverage of rainfall and deep convection, depth, or intensity, of convection, proximity of precipitation to the center) multiple days before genesis. These analyses offer an opportunity to determine whether the properties of precipitation at, and just prior to, genesis are unique compared to previous days of the pre-genesis stage. By evaluating these properties over the robust sample provided by the TC-PMW dataset, results may lend support to the hypothesis that genesis is more closely tied to the fractional coverage of precipitation near the center rather than to any uniquely "intense" convection. The study will also investigate whether there are significant differences among the basins in the properties of precipitation involved in tropical cyclogenesis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goldberg, R. A.; Jackman, C. H.; Baker, D. N.; Herrero, F. A.
Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HREs) can provide a major source of energy affecting ionization levels and minor constituents in the mesosphere. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced during the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness and frequency of occurrence as solar activity declines. Furthermore, although the precipitating flux is modulated diurnally in local time, the noontime maximum is very broad, exceeding several hours. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other external sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REPs) and auroral precipitation. In this work, the effects of HRE relativistic electrons on the neutral minor constituents OH and O3 are modeled during a modest HRE, to estimate their anticipated impact on mesospheric heating and dynamics. The data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska on May 13, 1990 during an HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Solid state detectors were used to measure the electron fluxes and their energy spectra. An x-ray scintillator was included to measure bremsstrahlung x-rays produced by energetic electrons impacting the upper atmosphere; however, these were found to make a negligible contribution to the energy deposition during this particular HRE event. Hence, the energy deposition produced by the highly relativistic electrons dominated within the mesosphere and was used exclusively to infer changes in the middle atmospheric minor constituent abundances. By employing a two-dimensional photochemical model developed for this region at Goddard Space Fight Center, it has been found that for this event, peak modifications in the neutral minor species occurred near 80 km. A maximum enhancement for OH was calculated to be over 40% at the latitude of the launch site, which in turn induced a
Motivational decline and recovery in higher education STEM courses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Young, Anna M.; Wendel, Paul J.; Esson, Joan M.; Plank, Kathryn M.
2018-06-01
Decline in student motivation is a concern for STEM education, especially for underrepresented groups in the sciences. Using the Science Motivation Questionnaire II, 41 foundational STEM courses were surveyed at the beginning and end of each semester in an academic year at a small primarily undergraduate university. Significant pre- to post-semester declines were observed in each of five measured motivational factors (Intrinsic motivation, Career motivation, Self determination, Self-efficacy, and Grade motivation), with effect sizes ranging from 0.21 to 0.41. However, in the second semester pre-survey, four motivational factors rebounded, including three returning to initial levels, suggesting that the observed motivational decline is not long-lasting. Analysis suggests that declines are not related to survey fatigue or student demographics, but rather to grades and, in the case of one motivational factor, to academic field. These findings suggest that a refocus on grading practices across STEM fields may influence student motivation and persistence in STEM.
Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tu, W.; Li, X.; Selesnick, R. S.; Looper, M. D.
2010-12-01
Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the fluxes and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a drift-diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), or precipitating (in the bounce loss cone), and the model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron loss rate can be estimated based on the optimum model parameter values. In this presentation we give an overview of our method and published results, followed by some recent improvements we made on the model, including updating the quantified electron lifetimes more frequently (e.g., every two hours instead of half a day) to achieve smoother variations, estimating the adiabatic effects at SAMPEX’s orbit and their influence on our model results, and calculating the error bar associated with each quantified electron lifetime. This method combining a model with low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, as required for any accurate modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.
Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.
2008-12-01
The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gao, Wenhua; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Fan, Jiwen
Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation, but has limitations in simulating time evolutionmore » of precipitation rates. The model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. The sensitivity experiments show that precipitation processes are sensitive to the changes of warm rain processes in condensation and nucleated droplet size (but less sensitive to evaporation process). Increasing droplet condensation produces the best area-averaged rain rate during weak convection period compared with the observation, suggesting a considerable bias in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.
2015-12-01
Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Yuan
2015-10-01
The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.
Precipitation structure in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter
Pandey, G.R.; Cayan, D.R.; Georgakakos, K.P.
1999-01-01
Influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon wintertime (November-April) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are investigated. Precipitation events in the Sierra Nevada region occur mostly during wintertime, irrespective of station location (leeside or wihdside) and elevation. Most precipitation episodes in the region are associated with moist southwesterly winds (coming from the southwest direction) and also tend to occur when the 700-mbar temperature at the upwind direction is close to -2??C. This favored wind direction and temperature signify the importance of both moisture transport and orographic lifting in augmenting precipitation in the region. By utilizing the observed dependency of the precipitation upon the upper air conditions, a linear model is formulated to quantify the precipitation observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model increases with timescale of aggregation, reaching more than 50% variance explained at an aggregation period of 5-7 days. This indicates that upstream air moisture transport can be used to estimate the precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.
Precipitation Structure in the Sierra Nevada of California During Winter
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pandey, Ganesh R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Georgakakos, Kostantine P.
1998-01-01
The influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon the winter time precipitation in the Sierra Nevada region were investigated. Most precipitation episodes in the Sierra are associated with moist southwesterly winds and also tend to occur when the 700-mb temperature is close to -2 C. This favored wind direction and temperature signifies the equal importance of moisture transport and orographic lifting for maximum precipitation frequency. Making use of this observation, simple linear models were formulated to quantify the precipitation totals observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model is least for daily precipitation and increases with time scale of aggregation. In terms of incremental gain, the skill of the model is optimal for an aggregation period of 5-7 days, which is also the duration of the most frequent precipitation events in the Sierra. This indicates that upper air moisture transport at can be used to make reasonable estimates of the precipitation totals for most frequent events in the Sierra region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mishra, Anoop; Rafiq, Mohammd
2017-12-01
This is the first attempt to merge highly accurate precipitation estimates from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) with gap free satellite observations from Meteosat to develop a regional rainfall monitoring algorithm to estimate heavy rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Rainfall signature is derived from Meteosat observations and is co-located against rainfall from GPM to establish a relationship between rainfall and signature for various rainy seasons. This relationship can be used to monitor rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Performance of this technique was tested by applying it to monitor heavy precipitation over India. It is reported that our algorithm is able to detect heavy rainfall. It is also reported that present algorithm overestimates rainfall areal spread as compared to rain gauge based rainfall product. This deficiency may arise from various factors including uncertainty caused by use of different sensors from different platforms (difference in viewing geometry from MFG and GPM), poor relationship between warm rain (light rain) and IR brightness temperature, and weak characterization of orographic rain from IR signature. We validated hourly rainfall estimated from the present approach with independent observations from GPM. We also validated daily rainfall from this approach with rain gauge based product from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Present technique shows a Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.76, a bias of -2.72 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10.82 mm, Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.74, False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 0.34 and a Skill score of 0.36 with daily rainfall from rain gauge based product of IMD at 0.25° resolution. However, FAR reduces to 0.24 for heavy rainfall events. Validation results with rain gauge observations reveal that present technique outperforms available satellite based rainfall estimates for monitoring heavy rainfall over Indian region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.
2017-12-01
The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.
Investigation of mesoscale precipitation processes in the Carolinas using a radar-based climatology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boyles, Ryan Patrick
The complex topography, shoreline, soils, and land use patterns makes the Carolinas a unique location to study mesoscale processes. Using gage-calibrated radar estimates and a series of numerical model simulations, warm season mesoscale precipitation patterns are analyzed over the Carolinas. Gage-calibrated radar precipitation estimates are compared with surface gage observations. Stage IV estimates generally compared better than Stage II estimates, but some Stage II and Stage IV estimates have gross errors during autumn, winter, and spring seasons. Analysis of days when sea breeze is observed suggests that sea breeze induced precipitation occurs on nearly 40% of days in June, July, and August, but only 18% in May and 6% of days in April. Precipitation on days with sea breeze convection can contribute to over 50% of seasonal precipitation. Rainfall associated with sea breeze is generally maximized along east-facing shores 10-20 km inland, and minimized along south-facing shores in North Carolina. The shape of the shoreline along Cape Fear is associated with a local precipitation maximum that may be caused by the convergence of two sea breeze fronts from the south and east shores. Differential heating associated with contrasting soils along the Carolina Sandhills is suggested as a mechanism for enhancement in local precipitation. A high-resolution summer precipitation climatology suggests that precipitation is enhanced along the Sandhills region in both wet and dry years. Analysis of four numerical simulations suggests that contrasts in soils over the Carolinas Sandhills dominates over vegetation contrasts to produce heat flux gradients and a convergence zone along the sand-to-clay transition. Orographically induced precipitation is consistently observed in the summer, and appears to be isolated along windward slopes at 20km--40km from the ridge line. Amounts over external ridges are generally 50-100% higher than amounts observed over the foothills. Precipitation
Gauge Adjusted Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP_GAUGE)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mega, T.; Ushio, T.; Yoshida, S.; Kawasaki, Z.; Kubota, T.; Kachi, M.; Aonashi, K.; Shige, S.
2013-12-01
Precipitation is one of the most important parameters on the earth system, and the global distribution of precipitation and its change are essential data for modeling the water cycle, maintaining the ecosystem environment, agricultural production, improvements of the weather forecast precision, flood warning and so on. The GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) project is led mainly by the United States and Japan, and is now being actively promoted in Europe, France, India, and China with international cooperation. In this project, the microwave radiometers observing microwave emission from rain will be placed on many low-orbit satellites, to reduce the interval to about 3 hours in observation time for each location on the earth. However, the problem of sampling error arises if the global precipitation estimates are less than three hours. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize a gap-filling technique to generate precipitation maps with high temporal resolution, which is quite important for operational uses such as flash flood warning systems. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) project was established by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) in 2002 to produce global precipitation products with high resolution and high precision from not only microwave radiometers but also geostationary infrared radiometers. Currently, the GSMaP_MVK product has been successfully producing fairly good pictures in near real time, and the products shows a comparable score compared with other high-resolution precipitation systems (Ushio et al. 2009 and Kubota et al. 2009). However some evaluations particularly of the operational applications show the tendency of underestimation compared to some ground based observations for the cases showing extremely high precipitation rates. This is partly because the spatial and temporal samplings of the satellite estimates are different from that of the ground based estimates. The microwave imager observes signals from
Kolli, R Prakash; Seidman, David N
2014-12-01
The composition of co-precipitated and collocated NbC carbide precipitates, Fe3C iron carbide (cementite), and Cu-rich precipitates are studied experimentally by atom-probe tomography (APT). The Cu-rich precipitates located at a grain boundary (GB) are also studied. The APT results for the carbides are supplemented with computational thermodynamics predictions of composition at thermodynamic equilibrium. Two types of NbC carbide precipitates are distinguished based on their stoichiometric ratio and size. The Cu-rich precipitates at the periphery of the iron carbide and at the GB are larger than those distributed in the α-Fe (body-centered cubic) matrix, which is attributed to short-circuit diffusion of Cu along the GB. Manganese segregation is not observed at the heterophase interfaces of the Cu-rich precipitates that are located at the periphery of the iron carbide or at the GB, which is unlike those located at the edge of the NbC carbide precipitates or distributed in the α-Fe matrix. This suggests the presence of two populations of NiAl-type (B2 structure) phases at the heterophase interfaces in multicomponent Fe-Cu steels.
Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Li, Cuihua; Naik, Naomi; Cook, Benjamin; Nakamura, Jennifer; Liu, Haibo
2012-01-01
Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P -- E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.
Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Tanoue, Masahiro
2016-01-01
Spatial distribution of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation (δ(18)O, δ(2)H) was observed at 56 sites across Japan throughout 2013. Annual mean δ(18)O values showed a strong latitude effect, from -12.4 ‰ in the north to -5.1 ‰ in the south. Annual mean d-excess values ranged from 8 to 21 ‰, and values on the Sea of Japan side in Northern and Eastern Japan were relatively higher than those on the Pacific Ocean side. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) and isotope effects were based on the annual mean values from all sites across Japan as divided into distinct regions: the Sea of Japan side to the Pacific Ocean side and Northeastern to Southwestern Japan. Slopes and intercepts of LMWL ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and 9.8 to 13.0, respectively. Slopes for latitude, altitude, and temperature effects ranged from -0.27 to -0.48 ‰/°N, -0.0034 to -0.0053 ‰/m, and 0.36 to 0.46 ‰/°C, respectively, with statistically significance at the 99 % level. However, there was no precipitation amount effect. From the result of a multiple regression analysis, the empirical formula of annual mean δ(18)O in precipitation from latitude and altitude for all sites across Japan was determined to be δ(18) O = -0.348 (LAT) - 0.00307 (ALT) + 4.29 (R(2) = 0.59). Slopes for latitude and altitude ranged from - 0.28 to - 0.51, and - 0.0019 to - 0.0045, respectively. Even though site distribution was uneven, these equations are the first trial estimation for annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan. Further research performed on the monthly basis is required to elucidate factors controlling the spatiotemporal variability of stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan.
The impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the hydrological budget of the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.; Kohler, J.
2009-12-01
The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. GCMs suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by about 1.5 due, largely, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the ensemble GCM predictions and has lead to the suggestion that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as soon as ~2014. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the water below during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. For example, changes in sea ice cover are thought to have caused changes in the mass balance of Europe’s largest ice cap, Austfona, Svalbard, by increasing accumulation. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmosphere only general circulation model HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice obtained by extrapolating recent changes into the future using bootstrapping based on the HadISST climatology. Here we use an RCM at 25km resolution over the Arctic which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation.
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi
2016-07-01
Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.
A Comprehensive Precipitation Data Set for Global Land Areas (TR-051)
Eischeid, J. K. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States) Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Diaz, H. F. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Bradley, R. S. [University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (USA); Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
1994-01-01
An expanded and updated compilation of long-term station precipitation data, together with a new set of gridded monthly mean fields for global land areas, are described. The present data set contains 5328 station records of monthly total precipitation, covering the period from the mid-1800s to the late 1980s. The station data were individually tested and visually inspected for the presence of spurious trends, jumps, and other measurement biases. The quality control procedure which was used to check the station records for nonclimatic discontinuities and other biases is detailed. We also discuss some of the problems which typically contribute to potential inhomogeneities in precipitation records. The station data were interpolated onto a 4° latitude by 5° longitude uniform grid. Comparisons of these data with two other global-scale precipitation climatologies are presented. We find good agreement among the three global-scale climatologies over the common areas in each set. Three different indices of long-term precipitation variations over the global land areas all indicate a general increase of annual precipitation since the 1940s, although a decline is evident over the last decade. There is some indication that the last few decades of the 19th century may have been as wet as the recent ones. An interesting feature of this study is the presence of relatively large differences in seasonal trends, with March-May and September-November becoming wetter in the last few decades. The December-February and June-August seasons exhibit smaller overall trends, although the northern winter season does exhibit large decadal-scale fluctuations.
Zhao, Wei; Marchand, Roger; Fu, Qiang
2017-07-08
Millimeter Wavelength Cloud Radar (MMCR) data from December 1996 to December 2010, collected at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, are used to examine the diurnal cycle of hydrometeor occurrence. These data are categorized into clouds (-40 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < -10 dBZ e), drizzle and light precipitation (-10 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < 10 dBZ e), and heavy precipitation (reflectivity ≥ 10 dBZ e). The same criteria are implemented for the observation-equivalent reflectivity calculated by feeding outputs from a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model into a radar simulator.more » The MMF model consists of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model with conventional cloud parameterizations replaced by a cloud-resolving model. We find that a radar simulator combined with the simple reflectivity categories can be an effective approach for evaluating diurnal variations in model hydrometeor occurrence. It is shown that the MMF only marginally captures observed increases in the occurrence of boundary layer clouds after sunrise in spring and autumn and does not capture diurnal changes in boundary layer clouds during the summer. Above the boundary layer, the MMF captures reasonably well diurnal variations in the vertical structure of clouds and light and heavy precipitation in the summer but not in the spring.« less
State of pine decline in the southeastern United States
Lori Eckhardt; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; Don Imm
2010-01-01
Pine decline is an emerging forest health issue in the southeastern United States. Observations suggest pine decline is caused by environmental stress arising from competition, weather, insects and fungi, anthropogenic disturbances, and previous management. The problem is most severe for loblolly pine on sites that historically supported longleaf pine, are highly...
Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep; ...
2016-04-06
Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep
Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Stevens, S. E.; Nickl, E.; Seo, D. J.; Kim, B.; Zhang, J.; Qi, Y.
2015-12-01
The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (Nexrad) network over the Continental United States (CONUS) is completed for the period covering from 2002 to 2011. While this constitutes a unique opportunity to study precipitation processes at higher resolution than conventionally possible (1-km, 5-min), the long-term radar-only product needs to be merged with in-situ information in order to be suitable for hydrological, meteorological and climatological applications. The radar-gauge merging is performed by using rain gauge information at daily (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily: GHCN-D), hourly (Hydrometeorological Automated Data System: HADS), and 5-min (Automated Surface Observing Systems: ASOS; Climate Reference Network: CRN) resolution. The challenges related to incorporating differing resolution and quality networks to generate long-term large-scale gridded estimates of precipitation are enormous. In that perspective, we are implementing techniques for merging the rain gauge datasets and the radar-only estimates such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Simple Kriging (SK), Ordinary Kriging (OK), and Conditional Bias-Penalized Kriging (CBPK). An evaluation of the different radar-gauge merging techniques is presented and we provide an estimate of uncertainty for the gridded estimates. In addition, comparisons with a suite of lower resolution QPEs derived from ground based radar measurements (Stage IV) are provided in order to give a detailed picture of the improvements and remaining challenges.
Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Seibert, J.
2018-01-01
Despite precipitation intensities may greatly vary during one flood event, detailed information about these intensities may not be required to accurately simulate floods with a hydrological model which rather reacts to cumulative precipitation sums. This raises two questions: to which extent is it important to preserve sub-daily precipitation intensities and how long does it effectively rain from the hydrological point of view? Both questions might seem straightforward to answer with a direct analysis of past precipitation events but require some arbitrary choices regarding the length of a precipitation event. To avoid these arbitrary decisions, here we present an alternative approach to characterize the effective length of precipitation event which is based on runoff simulations with respect to large floods. More precisely, we quantify the fraction of a day over which the daily precipitation has to be distributed to faithfully reproduce the large annual and seasonal floods which were generated by the hourly precipitation rate time series. New precipitation time series were generated by first aggregating the hourly observed data into daily totals and then evenly distributing them over sub-daily periods (n hours). These simulated time series were used as input to a hydrological bucket-type model and the resulting runoff flood peaks were compared to those obtained when using the original precipitation time series. We define then the effective daily precipitation duration as the number of hours n, for which the largest peaks are simulated best. For nine mesoscale Swiss catchments this effective daily precipitation duration was about half a day, which indicates that detailed information on precipitation intensities is not necessarily required to accurately estimate peaks of the largest annual and seasonal floods. These findings support the use of simple disaggregation approaches to make usage of past daily precipitation observations or daily precipitation simulations
Evaluation of wintertime precipitation forecasts over the Australian Snowy Mountains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Yi; Chubb, Thomas; Sarmadi, Fahimeh; Siems, Steven T.; Manton, Michael J.; Franklin, Charmaine N.; Ebert, Elizabeth
2018-07-01
This study evaluates the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction system in forecasting precipitation across the Australian Snowy Mountains for two cool seasons. Metrics based on seasonal accumulated and daily precipitation show that the model is able to reproduce the observed domain-mean accumulated precipitation reasonably well (with a slight overestimation), but this is, in part, due to a compensation of various errors. Both the frequency and intensity of the heavy precipitation days (domain-mean daily precipitation >5 mm day-1) are overrepresented, particularly over the complex terrain and high-elevation areas, whereas the frequency of the very light precipitation days (domain-mean daily precipitation <1 mm day-1) is underestimated, primarily over lower-elevation areas both upwind and downwind of the mountains. Most of the precipitation is forecasted by the grid-scale precipitation scheme, with appreciable snowfalls predicted over the high elevations. The model also demonstrates appreciable skill in reproducing the synoptic regimes. The proportion of the forecast precipitation for each regime is comparable to the observations, although the orographic enhancement over the western slopes of the mountains is more pronounced in the forecasts, particularly for the wetter regimes. An examination on the effect of the lower-atmosphere stability suggests that most of the precipitation (50-70% over the high elevations) is produced under the "unblocked" condition, which is diagnosed 31% of the time. The remainder is produced under the "blocked" condition. Combined with a case study, potential sources of error associated with the forecast precipitation biases are also discussed.
Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease
EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios
2016-01-01
Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualisation of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26876367
Precipitation Estimation Using L-Band and C-Band Soil Moisture Retrievals
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koster, Randal D.; Brocca, Luca; Crow, Wade T.; Burgin, Mariko S.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.
2016-01-01
An established methodology for estimating precipitation amounts from satellite-based soil moisture retrievals is applied to L-band products from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite missions and to a C-band product from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) mission. The precipitation estimates so obtained are evaluated against in situ (gauge-based) precipitation observations from across the globe. The precipitation estimation skill achieved using the L-band SMAP and SMOS data sets is higher than that obtained with the C-band product, as might be expected given that L-band is sensitive to a thicker layer of soil and thereby provides more information on the response of soil moisture to precipitation. The square of the correlation coefficient between the SMAP-based precipitation estimates and the observations (for aggregations to approximately100 km and 5 days) is on average about 0.6 in areas of high rain gauge density. Satellite missions specifically designed to monitor soil moisture thus do provide significant information on precipitation variability, information that could contribute to efforts in global precipitation estimation.
How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?
Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...
2018-02-10
Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less
How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun
Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less
Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.
2017-07-01
Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.
Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions
Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.
2012-01-01
Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.
Wang, Zemin; Fang, Xulei; Li, Hui; Liu, Wenqing
2017-04-01
The formation of copper-rich precipitates of 17-4 precipitate hardened stainless steel has been investigated, after tempering at 350-570°C for 4 h, by atom probe tomography (APT). The results reveal that the clusters, enriched only with Cu, were observed after tempering at 420°C. Segregation of Ni, Mn to the Cu-rich clusters took place at 450°C, contributing to the increased hardening. After tempering at 510°C, Ni and Mn were rejected from Cu-rich precipitates and accumulated at the precipitate/matrix interfaces. Al and Si were present and uniformly distributed in the precipitates that were <1.5 nm in radius, but Ni, Mn, Al, and Si were enriched at the interfaces of larger precipitates/matrix. The proxigram profiles of the Cu-rich precipitates formed at 570°C indicated that Ni, Mn, Al, and Si segregated to the precipitate/matrix interfaces to form a Ni(Fe, Mn, Si, Al) shell, which significantly reduced the interfacial energy as the precipitates grew into an elongated shape. In addition, the number density of Cu-rich precipitates was increased with the temperature elevated from 350 up to 450°C and subsequently decreased at higher temperatures. Also, the composition of the matrix and the precipitates were measured and found to vary with temperature.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Liljegren, J.C.
1994-01-01
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is focused on improving the treatment of radiation transfer in models of the atmospheric general circulation, as well as on improving parameterizations of cloud properties and formation processes in these models (USDOE, 1990). To help achieve these objectives, ARM is deploying several two-channel, microwave radiometers at the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma for the purpose of obtaining long time series observations of total precipitable water vapor (PWV) and cloud liquid water path (LWP). The performance of the WVR-1100 microwave radiometer deployed by ARM at the Oklahoma CART site central facility tomore » provide time series measurements precipitable water vapor (PWV) and liquid water path (LWP) has been presented. The instrument has proven to be durable and reliable in continuous field operation since June, 1992. The accuracy of the PWV has been demonstrated to achieve the limiting accuracy of the statistical retrieval under clear sky conditions, degrading with increasing LWP. Improvements are planned to address moisture accumulation on the Teflon window, as well as to identity the presence of clouds with LWP at or below the retrieval uncertainty.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, G.; Gao, J.; Long, D.
2017-12-01
Precipitation is one of the most important components in the water and energy cycles. Spaceborne radars are considered the most direct technology for observing precipitation from space since 1998. This study compares and evaluates the only three existing spaceborne precipitation radars, i.e., the Ku-band precipitation radar (TRMM PR), the W-band Cloud Profiling Radar (CloudSat CPR), and the Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM DPR). In addition, TRMM PR and GPM DPR are evaluated against hourly rain gauge data in Mainland China. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is known as the Earth's third pole where precipitation is affected profoundly by topography. However, ground gauges are extremely sparse in the TP, and spaceborne radars can provide valuable data with relatively high accuracy. The relationships between precipitation and topography over the TP are investigated using 17-year TRMM PR data and 2-year GPM DPR data, in combination with rain gauge data. Results indicate that: (1) DPR and PR agree with each other and correlate very well with gauges in Mainland China. DPR improves light precipitation detectability significantly compared with PR. However, DPR high sensitivity scans (HS) deviates from DPR normal and matched scans (NS and MS) and PR in the comparison based on global coincident events and rain gauges in China; (2) CPR outperforms the other two radars in terms of light precipitation detection. In terms of global snowfall estimation, DPR and CPR show very different global snowfall distributions originating from different frequencies, retrieval algorithms, and sampling characteristics; and (3) Precipitation generally decreases exponentially with increasing elevation in the TP. The precipitation-topography relationships are regressed using exponential fitting in seventeen river basins in the TP with good coefficients of determination. Due to the short time span of GPM DPR, the relationships based on GPM DPR data are less robust than those derived from
Rapid Decline of a Grassland System and Its Ecological and Conservation Implications
Ceballos, Gerardo; Davidson, Ana; List, Rurik; Pacheco, Jesús; Manzano-Fischer, Patricia; Santos-Barrera, Georgina; Cruzado, Juan
2010-01-01
One of the most important conservation issues in ecology is the imperiled state of grassland ecosystems worldwide due to land conversion, desertification, and the loss of native populations and species. The Janos region of northwestern Mexico maintains one of the largest remaining black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony complexes in North America and supports a high diversity of threatened and endangered species. Yet, cattle grazing, agriculture, and drought have greatly impacted the region. We evaluated the impact of human activities on the Janos grasslands, comparing changes in the vertebrate community over the last two decades. Our results reveal profound, rapid changes in the Janos grassland community, demonstrating large declines in vertebrate abundance across all taxonomic groups. We also found that the 55,000 ha prairie dog colony complex has declined by 73% since 1988. The prairie dog complex has become increasingly fragmented, and their densities have shown a precipitous decline over the years, from an average density of 25 per ha in 1988 to 2 per ha in 2004. We demonstrated that prairie dogs strongly suppressed woody plant encroachment as well as created open grassland habitat by clearing woody vegetation, and found rapid invasion of shrubland once the prairie dogs disappeared from the grasslands. Comparison of grasslands and shrublands showed markedly different species compositions, with species richness being greatest when both habitats were considered together. Our data demonstrate the rapid decline of a grassland ecosystem, and documents the dramatic loss in biodiversity over a very short time period concomitant with anthropogenic grassland degradation and the decline of a keystone species. PMID:20066035
Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Juerg; Schär, Christoph
2015-04-01
Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6-7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that sub-daily (e.g. hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate (referred to as super-adiabatic scaling). Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parameterize convective precipitation (i.e. thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving version of the COSMO model across an extended region (1100 km x 1100 km) covering the European Alps to investigate the differences between parameterized and explicit convection in climate-change scenarios. We conduct 10-year long integrations at resolutions of 12 and 2km. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals major improvements with the 2km resolution, in particular regarding the diurnal cycle of mean precipitation and the representation of hourly extremes. In addition, 2km simulations replicate the observed super-adiabatic scaling at precipitation stations, i.e. peak hourly events increase faster with environmental temperature than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7%/K (see Ban et al. 2014). Convection-resolving climate change scenarios are conducted using control (1991-2000) and scenario (2081-2090) simulations driven by a CMIP5 GCM (i.e. the MPI-ESM-LR) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Consistent with previous results, projections reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation (by 30%). However, unlike previous studies, we find that increase in both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation in 2km simulation (Ban et al. 2015). Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, P. P.
2012-01-01
Key to translating soil moisture memory into subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecast skill is a realistic treatment of evaporation in the forecast system used - in particular, a realistic treatment of how evaporation responds to variations in soil moisture. The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today's land surface models (LSMs), however, arguably reflect little more than guesswork given the lack of evaporation and soil moisture data at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. Here we present a new approach for evaluating this critical aspect of LSMs. Seasonally averaged precipitation is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged soil moisture, and seasonally-averaged air temperature is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged evaporation (e.g., more evaporative cooling leads to cooler temperatures) the relationship between historical precipitation and temperature measurements accordingly mimics in certain important ways nature's relationship between soil moisture and evaporation. Additional information on the relationship is gleaned from joint analysis of precipitation and streamflow measurements. An experimental framework that utilizes these ideas to guide the development of an improved soil moisture-evaporation relationship is described and demonstrated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Lei; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron; Xi, Baike; Li, Zhanqing
2017-03-01
The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) groundbased observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally
2011-01-01
The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tinsley, B.A.; Rohrbaugh, R.P.; Sahai, Y.
Observations have been made at Mt. Haleakala, Hawaii (dip lat.approx.22/sup 0/N) and Cachoeira Paulista, Brasil (dip lat.approx.12/sup 0/S) of emissions excited by particle precipitation during periods of magnetic activity. The first negative bands of N/sub 2//sup +/ were found to have a high degree of vibrational excitation at both sites, and withi the absence of emissions attributable to hydrogen and helium, this finding leads to the interpretation that the excitation was due to a flux of precipitating oxygen atoms or ions, more plausibly the former, produced by charge exchange of ring current O/sup +/ ions with exospheric neutral constituents. Moremore » laboratory work is needed to properly interpret the data, but crude estimates of the associated energy deposition and ionization production fall in the range 10/sup -1/ to 10/sup +1/mWm/sup -2/, and 10/sup 0/-10/sup 2/ cm/sup -3/s/sup -1/ respectively.« less
Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.
2015-10-01
Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Z.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Xu, X.
2017-12-01
Precipitation in mountain regions generally occurs with high-frequency-intensity, whereas it is not well-captured by sparsely distributed rain-gauges imposing a great challenge on water management. Satellite-based Precipitation Estimation (SPE) provides global high-resolution alternative data for hydro-climatic studies, but are subject to considerable biases. In this study, a model named PDMMA-USESGO for Precipitation Data Merging over Mountainous Areas Using Satellite Estimates and Sparse Gauge Observations is developed to support precipitation mapping and hydrological modeling in mountainous catchments. The PDMMA-USESGO framework includes two calculating steps—adjusting SPE biases and merging satellite-gauge estimates—using the quantile mapping approach, a two-dimensional Gaussian weighting scheme (considering elevation effect), and an inverse root mean square error weighting method. The model is applied and evaluated over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation retrievals (daily, 0.04°×0.04°) and sparse observations from 89 gauges, for the 11-yr period of 2003-2013. To assess the data merging effects on streamflow modeling, a hydrological evaluation is conducted over a watershed in southeast TP based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Evaluation results indicate effectiveness of the model in generating high-resolution-accuracy precipitation estimates over mountainous terrain, with the merged estimates (Mer-SG) presenting consistently improved correlation coefficients, root mean square errors and absolute mean biases from original satellite estimates (Ori-CCS). It is found the Mer-SG forced streamflow simulations exhibit great improvements from those simulations using Ori-CCS, with coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency reach to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. The presented model and case study serve as valuable references for the hydro-climatic applications using remote sensing-gauge information in
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, D.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; Knapp, A.; Wilcox, K.; Bahn, M.; Smith, M. D.; Ito, A.; Arneth, A.; Harper, A. B.; Ukkola, A.; Paschalis, A.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Reick, C. H.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Reinthaler, D.; Chen, G.; Tian, H.; Helene, G.; Zscheischler, J.; Mao, J.; Ingrisch, J.; Nabel, J.; Pongratz, J.; Boysen, L.; Kautz, M.; Schmitt, M.; Krohn, M.; Zeng, N.; Meir, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, Q.; Hasibeder, R.; Vicca, S.; Sippel, S.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Fatichi, S.; Sitch, S.; Shi, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.; Liu, Y.; Piao, S.
2017-12-01
Changes in precipitation variability including the occurrence of extreme events strongly influence plant growth in grasslands. Field measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest a positive asymmetric response with wet years resulting in ANPP gains larger than ANPP declines in dry years. Whether land surface models used for historical simulations and future projections of the coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable to simulate such non-symmetrical ANPP responses remains an important open research question. In this study, we evaluate the simulated responses of grassland primary productivity to altered precipitation with fourteen land surface models at the three sites of Colorado Shortgrass Steppe (SGS), Konza prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU) along a rainfall gradient from dry to wet. Our results suggest that: (i) Gross primary production (GPP), NPP, ANPP and belowground NPP (BNPP) show nonlinear response curves (concave-down) in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. In contrast across the sites, primary production increases and then saturates along increasing precipitation with a flattening at the wetter site. (ii) Slopes of spatial relationships between modeled primary production and precipitation are steeper than the temporal slopes (obtained from inter-annual variations). (iii) Asymmetric responses under nominal precipitation range with modeled inter-annual primary production show large uncertainties, and model-ensemble median generally suggests negative asymmetry (greater declines in dry years than increases in wet years) across the three sites. (iv) Primary production at the drier site is predicted to more sensitive to precipitation compared to wetter site, and median sensitivity consistently indicates greater negative impacts of reduced precipitation than positive effects of increased precipitation under extreme conditions. This study implies that most models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Sheng; Hu, Junjun; Zhang, Asi; Min, Chao; Huang, Chaoying; Liang, Zhenqing
2018-02-01
This study assesses the performance of near real-time Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_NRT) estimates over northern China, including Beijing and its adjacent regions, during three heavy precipitation events from 21 July 2012 to 2 August 2012. Two additional near real-time satellite-based products, the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), were used for parallel comparison with GSMaP_NRT. Gridded gauge observations were used as reference for a performance evaluation with respect to spatiotemporal variability, probability distribution of precipitation rate and volume, and contingency scores. Overall, GSMaP_NRT generally captures the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and shows promising potential in near real-time mapping applications. GSMaP_NRT misplaced storm centers in all three storms. GSMaP_NRT demonstrated higher skill scores in the first high-impact storm event on 21 July 2015. GSMaP_NRT passive microwave only precipitation can generally capture the pattern of heavy precipitation distributions over flat areas but failed to capture the intensive rain belt over complicated mountainous terrain. The results of this study can be useful to both algorithm developers and the scientific end users, providing a better understanding of strengths and weaknesses to hydrologists using satellite precipitation products.
Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.
2012-01-01
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. NASA and JAXA will deploy a Core Observatory in 2014 to serve as a reference satellite to unify precipitation measurements from the constellation of sensors. The GPM Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a conical-scanning multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The DPR will be the first dual-frequency radar in space to provide not only measurements of 3-D precipitation structures but also quantitative information on microphysical properties of precipitating particles. The DPR and GMI measurements will together provide a database that relates vertical hydrometeor profiles to multi-frequency microwave radiances over a variety of environmental conditions across the globe. This combined database will be used as a common transfer standard for improving the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. For global coverage, GPM relies on existing satellite programs and new mission opportunities from a consortium of partners through bilateral agreements with either NASA or JAXA. Each constellation member may have its unique scientific or operational objectives but contributes microwave observations to GPM for the generation and dissemination of unified global precipitation data products. In addition to the DPR and GMI on the Core Observatory, the baseline GPM constellation consists of the following sensors: (1) Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) on the GCOM-W1 satellite of JAXA, (3) the Multi-Frequency Microwave Scanning Radiometer (MADRAS) and the multi-channel microwave humidity sounder
Discontinuous precipitation at the deformation band in copper alloy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Han, Seung Zeon; Ahn, Jee Hyuk; You, Young Soo; Lee, Jehyun; Goto, Masahiro; Kim, Kwangho; Kim, Sangshik
2018-01-01
The Cu-Ni-Si alloy is known as a precipitation hardening alloy, where the Ni2Si intermetallic compound is precipitated in the matrix during aging. There are two types of precipitation of Ni2Si: continuous and discontinuous cellular. The discontinuous cellular precipitation is generally initiated at interfaces especially grain boundaries in the matrix. To observe the grain boundary effect on the discontinuous precipitation, a large-grained Cu-Ni-Si-Ti alloy was intentionally fabricated by unidirectional solidification and plastically deformed by groove rolling. While discontinuous cellular precipitation has been generally known to occur only at the high angled grain boundaries in the alloys, we found that it was also generated inside the grains, at the deformation bands formed by plastic deformation.
Meteorological factors affecting the sudden decline in Lake Urmia's water level
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arkian, Foroozan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Ziaie, Bahareh
2018-01-01
Lake Urmia, in northwest Iran, is the second most saline lake in the world. During the past two decades, the level of water has markedly decreased. In this paper, climate of the lake region is investigated by using data from four meteorological stations near the lake. The data include climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, number of rain days, and evaporation. Climate around the lake is examined by way of climate classification in the periods before and after the reduction in water level. Rainfall in the lake catchment is also evaluated using both gauge and satellite data. The results show a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation and wind speed and an increasing trend in annual average temperature and sunshine hours at the four stations. Precipitation and wind speed have decreased by 37 mm and 2.7 m/s, respectively, and the mean annual temperature and sunshine hours have increased by 1.4 °C and 41.6 days, respectively, over these six decades. Only the climate of the Tabriz region is seen to have significantly changed, going from semiarid to arid. Gauge records and satellite data show a large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall since 1995. The correlation between rainfall and year-to-year changes in lake level is 0.69 over the period 1965 to 2010. The relationship is particularly strong from the early 1990s to 2005. This suggests that precipitation has played an important role in the documented decline of the lake.
BOREAS HYD-8 Gross Precipitation Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fernandes, Richard; Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Knapp, David E. (Editor); Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Hydrology (HYD)-08 team made measurements of surface hydrological processes at the Southern Study Area-Old Black Spruce (SSA-OBS) Tower Flux site to support its research into point hydrological processes and the spatial variation of these processes. Data collected may be useful in characterizing canopy interception, drip, throughfall, moss interception, drainage, evaporation, and capacity during the growing season at daily temporal resolution. This particular data set contains the gross precipitation measurements for July to August 1996. Gross precipitation is the precipitation that falls that is not intercepted by tree canopies. These data are stored in ASCII text files. The HYD-08 gross precipitation data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rodgers, Edward B.; Chang, Simon W.; Pierce, Harold F.
1994-01-01
Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ding, Xiangyi; Liu, Jiahong; Gong, Jiaguo
2018-02-01
Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.
Monitoring All Weather Precipitation Using PIP and MRR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bliven, Francis; Petersen, Walter; Kulie, Mark; Pettersen, Claire; Wolff, David; Dutter, Michael
2015-04-01
The objective of this study is to demonstrate the science benefit of monitoring all weather precipitation for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Ground Validation Program using a combination of two instruments: the Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) and a Microwave Rain Radar-II (MRR). The PIP is a new ground based precipitation imaging instrument that uses a high speed camera and advanced processing software to image individual hydrometeors, measure hydrometeor size distributions, track individual hydrometeors and compute fall velocities. PIP hydrometeor data are also processed using algorithms to compute precipitation rates in one-minute time increments, and to discriminate liquid, mixed and frozen (e.g., snow) precipitation. The MRR, a vertically-pointing 24 GHz radar, is well documented in the literature and monitors hydrometeor vertical profile characteristics such as Doppler fall-speed spectra, radar reflectivity, size distribution and precipitation rate. Of interest to GPM direct and physical ground validation are collections of robust, satellite overpass-coincident, long-duration datasets consisting of observations of the aforementioned hydrometeor characteristics for falling snow and mixes of falling-snow and rain, as there are relatively few instruments that provide continuous observations of coincident hydrometeor image, size, and fall velocity in cold regions due to harsh environmental conditions. During extended periods of 2013 and 2014, concurrent PIP and MRR data sets were obtained at the National Weather Service station in Marquette, Michigan (2014), and at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia (2013,14). Herein we present examples of those data sets for a variety of weather conditions (rain, snow, frontal passages, lake effect snow events etc.). The results demonstrate 1) that the PIP and MRR are well-suited to long term operation in cold regions; 2) PIP and MRR data products are useful for characterizing a
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Vincent, Dayton G.; Robertson, Franklin
1993-01-01
The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.
The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rodgers, Edward B.; Baik, Jong-Jin; Pierce, Harold F.
1994-01-01
The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.
The Environmental Influence on Tropical Cyclone Precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodgers, Edward B.; Baik, Jong-Jin; Pierce, Harold F.
1994-05-01
The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were 1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, 2) vertical wind shear, 3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and 4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.The analyses revealed that 1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; 2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; 3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; 4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; 5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26°C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m s1), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.
2017-09-01
Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.
The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA): Evaluation of the statistical interpolation scheme
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Evans, Andrea; Rasmussen, Peter; Fortin, Vincent
2013-04-01
CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis) is a data assimilation system which employs statistical interpolation to combine observed precipitation with gridded precipitation fields produced by Environment Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) climate model into a final gridded precipitation analysis. Precipitation is important in many fields and applications, including agricultural water management projects, flood control programs, and hydroelectric power generation planning. Precipitation is a key input to hydrological models, and there is a desire to have access to the best available information about precipitation in time and space. The principal goal of CaPA is to produce this type of information. In order to perform the necessary statistical interpolation, CaPA requires the estimation of a semi-variogram. This semi-variogram is used to describe the spatial correlations between precipitation innovations, defined as the observed precipitation amounts minus the GEM forecasted amounts predicted at the observation locations. Currently, CaPA uses a single isotropic variogram across the entire analysis domain. The present project investigates the implications of this choice by first conducting a basic variographic analysis of precipitation innovation data across the Canadian prairies, with specific interest in identifying and quantifying potential anisotropy within the domain. This focus is further expanded by identifying the effect of storm type on the variogram. The ultimate goal of the variographic analysis is to develop improved semi-variograms for CaPA that better capture the spatial complexities of precipitation over the Canadian prairies. CaPA presently applies a Box-Cox data transformation to both the observations and the GEM data, prior to the calculation of the innovations. The data transformation is necessary to satisfy the normal distribution assumption, but introduces a significant bias. The second part of the investigation aims at devising a bias
Yunusova, Yana; Wang, Jun; Zinman, Lorne; Pattee, Gary L.; Berry, James D.; Perry, Bridget; Green, Jordan R.
2016-01-01
Purpose To determine the mechanisms of speech intelligibility impairment due to neurologic impairments, intelligibility decline was modeled as a function of co-occurring changes in the articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems. Method Sixty-six individuals diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) were studied longitudinally. The disease-related changes in articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems were quantified using multiple instrumental measures, which were subjected to a principal component analysis and mixed effects models to derive a set of speech subsystem predictors. A stepwise approach was used to select the best set of subsystem predictors to model the overall decline in intelligibility. Results Intelligibility was modeled as a function of five predictors that corresponded to velocities of lip and jaw movements (articulatory), number of syllable repetitions in the alternating motion rate task (articulatory), nasal airflow (resonatory), maximum fundamental frequency (phonatory), and speech pauses (respiratory). The model accounted for 95.6% of the variance in intelligibility, among which the articulatory predictors showed the most substantial independent contribution (57.7%). Conclusion Articulatory impairments characterized by reduced velocities of lip and jaw movements and resonatory impairments characterized by increased nasal airflow served as the subsystem predictors of the longitudinal decline of speech intelligibility in ALS. Declines in maximum performance tasks such as the alternating motion rate preceded declines in intelligibility, thus serving as early predictors of bulbar dysfunction. Following the rapid decline in speech intelligibility, a precipitous decline in maximum performance tasks subsequently occurred. PMID:27148967
Rong, Panying; Yunusova, Yana; Wang, Jun; Zinman, Lorne; Pattee, Gary L; Berry, James D; Perry, Bridget; Green, Jordan R
2016-01-01
To determine the mechanisms of speech intelligibility impairment due to neurologic impairments, intelligibility decline was modeled as a function of co-occurring changes in the articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems. Sixty-six individuals diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) were studied longitudinally. The disease-related changes in articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems were quantified using multiple instrumental measures, which were subjected to a principal component analysis and mixed effects models to derive a set of speech subsystem predictors. A stepwise approach was used to select the best set of subsystem predictors to model the overall decline in intelligibility. Intelligibility was modeled as a function of five predictors that corresponded to velocities of lip and jaw movements (articulatory), number of syllable repetitions in the alternating motion rate task (articulatory), nasal airflow (resonatory), maximum fundamental frequency (phonatory), and speech pauses (respiratory). The model accounted for 95.6% of the variance in intelligibility, among which the articulatory predictors showed the most substantial independent contribution (57.7%). Articulatory impairments characterized by reduced velocities of lip and jaw movements and resonatory impairments characterized by increased nasal airflow served as the subsystem predictors of the longitudinal decline of speech intelligibility in ALS. Declines in maximum performance tasks such as the alternating motion rate preceded declines in intelligibility, thus serving as early predictors of bulbar dysfunction. Following the rapid decline in speech intelligibility, a precipitous decline in maximum performance tasks subsequently occurred.
Global precipitation measurement (GPM) preliminary design
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neeck, Steven P.; Kakar, Ramesh K.; Azarbarzin, Ardeshir A.; Hou, Arthur Y.
2008-10-01
The overarching Earth science mission objective of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes. This will enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations. The specific scientific objectives of GPM are advancing: Precipitation Measurement through combined use of active and passive remote-sensing techniques, Water/Energy Cycle Variability through improved knowledge of the global water/energy cycle and fresh water availability, Climate Prediction through better understanding of surface water fluxes, soil moisture storage, cloud/precipitation microphysics and latent heat release, Weather Prediction through improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) skills from more accurate and frequent measurements of instantaneous rain rates with better error characterizations and improved assimilation methods, Hydrometeorological Prediction through better temporal sampling and spatial coverage of highresolution precipitation measurements and innovative hydro-meteorological modeling. GPM is a joint initiative with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and other international partners and is the backbone of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Precipitation Constellation. It will unify and improve global precipitation measurements from a constellation of dedicated and operational active/passive microwave sensors. GPM is completing the Preliminary Design Phase and is advancing towards launch in 2013 and 2014.
Precipitate Redistribution during Creep of Alloy 617
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
S. Schlegel; S. Hopkins; E. Young
2009-12-01
Nickel-based superalloys are being considered for applications within advanced nuclear power generation systems due to their high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. Alloy 617, a candidate for use in heat exchangers, derives its strength from both solid solution strengthening and the precipitation of carbide particles. However, during creep, carbides that are supposed to retard grain boundary motion are found to dissolve and re-precipitate on boundaries in tension. To quantify the redistribution, we have used electron backscatter diffraction and energy dispersive spectroscopy to analyze the microstructure of 617 after creep testing at 900 and 1000°C. The data were analyzed with respectmore » to location of the carbides (e.g., intergranular vs. intragranular), grain boundary character, and precipitate type (i.e., Cr-rich or Mo-rich). We find that grain boundary character is the most important factor in carbide distribution; some evidence of preferential distribution to boundaries in tension is also observed at higher applied stresses. Finally, the results suggest that the observed redistribution is due to the migration of carbides to the boundaries and not the migration of boundaries to the precipitates.« less
Desert dust suppressing precipitation: A possible desertification feedback loop
Rosenfeld, Daniel; Rudich, Yinon; Lahav, Ronen
2001-01-01
The effect of desert dust on cloud properties and precipitation has so far been studied solely by using theoretical models, which predict that rainfall would be enhanced. Here we present observations showing the contrary; the effect of dust on cloud properties is to inhibit precipitation. Using satellite and aircraft observations we show that clouds forming within desert dust contain small droplets and produce little precipitation by drop coalescence. Measurement of the size distribution and the chemical analysis of individual Saharan dust particles collected in such a dust storm suggest a possible mechanism for the diminished rainfall. The detrimental impact of dust on rainfall is smaller than that caused by smoke from biomass burning or anthropogenic air pollution, but the large abundance of desert dust in the atmosphere renders it important. The reduction of precipitation from clouds affected by desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turn raises more dust, thus providing a possible feedback loop to further decrease precipitation. Furthermore, anthropogenic changes of land use exposing the topsoil can initiate such a desertification feedback process. PMID:11353821
Umegaki, Hiroyuki; Iimuro, Satoshi; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Araki, Atsushi; Sakurai, Takashi; Iijima, Katsuya; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ito, Hideki
2012-04-01
Considerable attention has been paid to the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cognitive dysfunction in the elderly. T2DM is often comorbid with several other metabolic disturbances, including hypertension and dyslipidemia. These comorbid diseases might be associated with cognitive impairment. Many clinical indices should be included as variables for the association with cognitive decline. In the current study, we tried to identify the associated factors with cognitive decline during a 6-year period in elderly T2DM considering the changes in the clinical indices during the follow-up period. The subjects in the present study were 63 Japanese Elderly Interventional Trial participants who were administered the Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline, at the third year, and at the end of the 6-year follow-up period. We applied the pooled logistic analysis method to consider the changes in clinical indices during the observation period and tried to identify the factors associated with cognitive decline during the 6 years in elderly type 2 diabetics using repeated measured data for glycated hemoglobin A1c, blood pressure and serum lipids. In the current study, low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and higher diastolic blood pressure were significantly associated with cognitive decline by pooled logistic analysis in the 6-year observation of older diabetic subjects. Higher glycated hemoglobin A1c had a tendency toward association with cognitive decline. The results suggest that comprehensive management of diabetes, including dyslipidemia and hypertension, might contribute to the prevention of declines in cognitive function in older diabetic patients. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.
Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun; Sánchez, René Lobato; Jha, Bhaskar
2018-06-01
In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.
Cognitive decline following incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus in a population sample.
Rajan, Kumar B; Arvanitakis, Zoe; Lynch, Elizabeth B; McAninch, Elizabeth A; Wilson, Robert S; Weuve, Jennifer; Barnes, Lisa L; Bianco, Antonio C; Evans, Denis A
2016-10-18
To examine if incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus (DM) were associated with cognitive decline among African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs). Based on a prospective study of 7,740 older adults (mean age 72.3 years, 64% AA, 63% female), DM was ascertained by hypoglycemic medication use and Medicare claims during physician or hospital visits, and cognition by performance on a brief battery for executive functioning, episodic memory, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Decline in composite and individual tests among those with incident DM, with preexisting DM, and without DM was studied using a linear mixed effects model with and without change point. At baseline, 737 (15%) AAs and 269 (10%) EAs had preexisting DM. Another 721 (17%) AAs and 289 (12%) EAs had incident DM in old age. Following incident DM, cognitive decline increased by 36% among AAs and by 40% among EAs compared to those without DM. No significant difference was observed between AAs and EAs (p = 0.64). However, cognitive decline increased by 17% among AAs with preexisting DM compared to those without DM, but no increased decline was observed among EAs with preexisting DM. In secondary analyses, faster decline in executive functioning and episodic memory was observed following incident DM. In old age, faster cognitive decline was present among AAs and EAs following incident DM, compared to cognitive decline prior to DM, and among those without DM. This underscores the need for stronger prevention and control of DM in old age. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less
Precipitation Behavior During Aging in α Phase Titanium Supersaturated with Cu
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitsuhara, Masatoshi; Masuda, Tomoya; Nishida, Minoru; Kunieda, Tomonori; Fujii, Hideki
2016-04-01
Age hardening of Ti-2.3 mass pct Cu (Ti-2.3Cu) at 673 K to 873 K (400 °C to 600 °C) after solution treatment at 1063 K (790 °C) was observed. The relationship between precipitates formed during aging and changes in hardness was investigated. During aging at 673 K (400 °C), the hardness increased rapidly up to 200 hours, and subsequently increased more slowly up to 1000 hours. At 873 K (600 °C), the hardness began to decrease immediately. Transmission electron microscopy showed that fine disk-shaped precipitates of 20 to 40 nm in diameter grew in the α phase. It is concluded that these precipitates interacted with dislocations and increased the hardness. At 873 K (600 °C), precipitates of 1 µm in length and Ti2Cu particles of 200 nm in length were observed. The decrease in hardness may have resulted from the precipitate formation decreasing the concentration of Cu in the α phase. Bright/dark contrast of the three atomic layers and small atomic shift of the hcp structure were observed in the atomic resolution imaging of the precipitates. This suggests that the precipitates are not just Cu-enriched zones and have structures with similar periodicity to the Ti2Cu phase, which is thermally stable at those aging temperatures.
Connecting Urbanization to Precipitation: the case of Mexico City
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Georgescu, Matei
2017-04-01
Considerable evidence exists illustrating the influence of urban environments on precipitation. We revisit this theme of significant interest to a broad spectrum of disciplines ranging from urban planning to engineering to urban numerical modeling and climate, by detailing the simulated effect of Mexico City's built environment on regional precipitation. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to determine spatiotemporal changes in near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions induced by the modern-day urban landscape relative to presettlement conditions, I mechanistically link the built environment-induced increase in air temperature to simulated increases in rainfall during the evening hours. This simulated increase in precipitation is in agreement with historical observations documenting observed rainfall increase. These results have important implications for understanding the meteorological conditions leading to the widespread and recurrent urban flooding that continues to plague the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.
Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes
Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.
2013-08-01
While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less
Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?
Donovan, P
1998-10-01
About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.
Ralph, F.M.; Sukovich, E.; Reynolds, D.; Dettinger, M.; Weagle, S.; Clark, W.; Neiman, P.J.
2010-01-01
Extreme precipitation events, and the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) associated with them, are examined. The study uses data from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT), which conducted its first field study in California during the 2005/06 cool season. National Weather Service River Forecast Center (NWS RFC) gridded QPFs for 24-h periods at 24-h (day 1), 48-h (day 2), and 72-h (day 3) forecast lead times plus 24-h quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) fromsites in California (CA) and Oregon-Washington (OR-WA) are used. During the 172-day period studied, some sites received more than 254 cm (100 in.) of precipitation. The winter season produced many extreme precipitation events, including 90 instances when a site received more than 7.6 cm (3.0 in.) of precipitation in 24 h (i.e., an "event") and 17 events that exceeded 12.7 cm (24 h)-1 [5.0 in. (24 h)-1]. For the 90 extreme events f.7.6 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)-1]g, almost 90% of all the 270 QPFs (days 1-3) were biased low, increasingly so with greater lead time. Of the 17 observed events exceeding 12.7 cm (24 h)-1 [5.0 in. (24 h)-1], only 1 of those events was predicted to be that extreme. Almost all of the extreme events correlated with the presence of atmospheric river conditions. Total seasonal QPF biases for all events fi.e., $0.025 cm (24 h)-1 [0.01 in. (24 h)-1]g were sensitive to local geography and were generally biased low in the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) region and high in the Northwest River Forecast Center(NWRFC) domain. The low bias in CA QPFs improved with shorter forecast lead time and worsened for extreme events. Differences were also noted between the CNRFC and NWRFC in terms of QPF and the frequency of extreme events. A key finding from this study is that there were more precipitation events .7.6 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)21] in CA than in OR-WA. Examination of 422 Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites in the NWRFC domain and 400 in the CNRFC domain
Spatial Extent of Relativistic Electron Precipitation from the Radiation Belts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shekhar, Sapna
Relativistic Electron Precipitation (REP) in the atmosphere can contribute signi- cantly to electron loss from the outer radiation belts. In order to estimate the contribution to this loss, it is important to estimate the spatial extent of the precipitation region. We observed REP with the 0° Medium Energy Proton Electron Detector (MEPED) on board Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES), for 15 years (2000-2014) and used both single and multi satellite measurements to estimate an average extent of the region of precipitation in L shell and Magnetic Local Time. In the duration of 15 years (2000-2014), 31035 REPs were found in this study. Events were found to split into two classes; one class of events coincided with proton precipitation in the P1 channel (30-80 keV), were located in the dusk and early morning sector, and were more localized in L shell and magnetic local time (dMLT 0-3 hrs, dL 0.25-0.5),whereas the other class of events did not include proton precipitation, and were located mostly in the midnight sector and were wider in L shell (dL 1-2.5) but localized in MLT (dMLT 0-3 hrs); both classes occurred mostly during the declining phase of the solar cycle and geomagnetically active times. The events located in the midnight sector for both classes were found to be associated with tail magnetic field stretching which could be due to the fact that they tend to occur mostly during geomagnetically active times, or could imply that precipitation is caused by current sheet scattering. Use of POES to infer information about the precipitation energy spectrum was also investigated, despite the coarse energy channels and contamination issues. In order to study the energy specicity of the REP events, a method to t exponential spectra to the REP events, wherever possible, was formulated and validated through comparisons with SAMPEX observed spectra. 18 events on POES were found to be in conjunction with SAMPEX in the years 2000-04. The exponentially tted
Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kawazoe, S.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.
2015-12-01
We analyze the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and supporting processes for both contemporary and future-scenario simulations during summer (JJA). RCM output comes from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, which are all run at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Analysis focuses on the upper Mississippi basin for summer, between 1982-1998 for the contemporary climate, and 2052-2068 during the scenario climate. We also compare simulated precipitation and supporting processes with those obtained from observed precipitation and reanalysis atmospheric states. Precipitation observations are from the University of Washington (UW) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded dataset. Utilizing two observational datasets helps determine if any uncertainties arise from differences in precipitation gridding schemes. Reanalysis fields come from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The NARCCAP models generally reproduce well the precipitation-vs.-intensity spectrum seen in observations, while producing overly strong precipitation at high intensity thresholds. In the future-scenario climate, there is a decrease in frequency for light to moderate precipitation intensities, while an increase in frequency is seen for the higher intensity events. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5 percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called "widespread events". For widespread events, we analyze local and large scale environmental parameters, such as 2-m temperature and specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential heights, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, among others, to compare atmospheric states and processes leading to such events in the models and observations. The results suggest that an analysis of atmospheric states supporting very heavy precipitation events is a
CalWater 2 - Precipitation, Aerosols, and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers Experiment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spackman, Ryan; Ralph, Marty; Prather, Kim; Cayan, Dan; DeMott, Paul; Dettinger, Mike; Fairall, Chris; Leung, Ruby; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Rutledge, Steven; Waliser, Duane; White, Allen
2014-05-01
Emerging research has identified two phenomena that play key roles in the variability of the water supply and the incidence of extreme precipitation events along the West Coast of the United States. These phenomena include the role of (1) atmospheric rivers (ARs) in delivering much of the precipitation associated with major storms along the U.S. West Coast, and (2) aerosols—from local sources as well as those transported from remote continents—and their modulating effects on western U.S. precipitation. A better understanding of these processes is needed to reduce uncertainties in weather predictions and climate projections of extreme precipitation and its effects, including the provision of beneficial water supply. This presentation summarizes science gaps associated with (1) the evolution and structure of ARs including cloud and precipitation processes and air-sea interaction, and (2) aerosol interaction with ARs and the impact on precipitation, including locally-generated aerosol effects on orographic precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Observations are proposed for multiple winter seasons as part of a 5-year broad interagency vision referred to as CalWater 2 to address these science gaps (http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/calwater). In the near term, a science investigation is being planned including a targeted set of aircraft and ship-based measurements and associated evaluation of data in near-shore regions of California and in the eastern Pacific for an intensive observing period between January 2015 and March 2015. DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and NOAA are coordinating on deployment of airborne and ship-borne facilities for this period in a DOE-sponsored study called ACAPEX (ARM Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Experiment) to complement CalWater 2. The motivation for this major study is based on findings that have emerged in the last few years from airborne and ground-based studies including CalWater and NOAA's HydroMeterology Testbed
Geriatric Assessment and Functional Decline in Older Patients with Lung Cancer.
Decoster, L; Kenis, C; Schallier, D; Vansteenkiste, J; Nackaerts, K; Vanacker, L; Vandewalle, N; Flamaing, J; Lobelle, J P; Milisen, K; De Grève, J; Wildiers, H
2017-10-01
Older patients with lung cancer are a heterogeneous population making treatment decisions complex. This study aims to evaluate the value of geriatric assessment (GA) as well as the evolution of functional status (FS) in older patients with lung cancer, and to identify predictors associated with functional decline and overall survival (OS). At baseline, GA was performed in patients ≥70 years with newly diagnosed lung cancer. FS measured by activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was reassessed at follow-up to define functional decline and OS was collected. Predictors for functional decline and OS were determined. Two hundred and forty-five patients were included in this study. At baseline, GA deficiencies were present in all domains and ADL and IADL were impaired in 51 and 63% of patients, respectively. At follow-up, functional decline in ADL was observed in 23% and in IADL in 45% of patients. In multivariable analysis, radiotherapy was predictive for ADL decline. No other predictors for ADL or IADL decline were identified. Stage and baseline performance status were predictive for OS. Older patients with lung cancer present with multiple deficiencies covering all geriatric domains. During treatment, functional decline is observed in almost half of the patients. None of the specific domains of the GA were predictive for functional decline or survival, probably because of the high impact of the aggressiveness of this tumor type leading to a poor prognosis.
Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.
Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A
2017-11-28
To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.
Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors
Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.
2014-01-01
Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change
Healthy eating and reduced risk of cognitive decline
Dehghan, Mahshid; O'Donnell, Martin; Anderson, Craig; Teo, Koon; Gao, Peggy; Sleight, Peter; Dagenais, Gilles; Probstfield, Jeffrey L.; Mente, Andrew; Yusuf, Salim
2015-01-01
Objective: We sought to determine the association of dietary factors and risk of cognitive decline in a population at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods: Baseline dietary intake and measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination were recorded in 27,860 men and women who were enrolled in 2 international parallel trials of the ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomised Assessment Study in ACE Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease) studies. We measured diet quality using the modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between diet quality and risk of ≥3-point decline in Mini-Mental State Examination score, and reported as hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals with adjustment for covariates. Results: During 56 months of follow-up, 4,699 cases of cognitive decline occurred. We observed lower risk of cognitive decline among those in the healthiest dietary quintile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index compared with lowest quintile (hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.86, Q5 vs Q1). Lower risk of cognitive decline was consistent regardless of baseline cognitive level. Conclusion: We found that higher diet quality was associated with a reduced risk of cognitive decline. Improved diet quality represents an important potential target for reducing the global burden of cognitive decline. PMID:25948720
Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David
2017-12-01
In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints.
Characterizing the summer convective clouds and precipitation over Tibetan Plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, X.; Chang, Y.
2016-12-01
Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in regional even in global water cycle, ecosystem and atmospheric circulation. China has conducted the Third Tibetan Plateau Experiment-Observation of Boundary Layer and Troposphere (2014-2017) Project in order to reveal the physical process of meteorology and atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. The field campaign used state-of-the-art observational instruments for observing clouds and precipitation processes including multiband radar system such as the C-band continuous wave radar and Ka-band millimetre wave cloud radar, as well as raindrop disdrometer and lidar ceilometer etc. Here, we characterize the summer convective clouds and precipitation and raindrop size distribution based on observation data and FY-2E satellite TBB data from July 1 to August 31, 2014. The result shows that the summer convective activities mainly distributed in the central and southeast regions over the Tibetan Plateau, and the precipitation process had a quasi-two-week cycle during the observational period. Due to the strong solar heating effect over the plateau, both convective clouds and precipitation processes had obvious daily variation. The convections first appeared at 11:00 in the morning, and the first peak of precipitation occurred at around 12:00, which was mainly caused by local thermal convection with relative lower cloud-top height and wider drop spectrum. The mean cloud-top height was around 11.5 km (ASL), and its maximum value exceeded 19 km, and the mean cloud-base height was 6.88 km (ASL) during the observation period. The precipitation in summer time over the plateau was mainly short-lasting and showery, and usually lasted less than 1 h, and the mean precipitation intensity was around 1.2 mm/h. The result also shows that the raindrop size distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was wider than that over plain at the same latitude and season, because of which the rainfall could be more easily produced over the plateau than that over
Performance of high-resolution satellite precipitation products over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Y.; Xiong, A.; Wang, Y.; Xie, P.; Precipitation Merge Team
2010-12-01
A gauge-based analysis of hourly precipitation is constructed on a 0.25°latitude/ longitude grid over China for a 3 year period from 2005 to 2007 by interpolating gauge reports from ~2000 stations (fig.1) collected and quality controlled by the National Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration. Gauge-based precipitation analysis is applied to examine the performance of six high-resolution satellite precipitation estimates, including Joyce et al.’s (2004) Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH) and the arithmetic mean of the microwave estimates used in CMORPH; Huffman et al.’s (2007) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation product 3B42 and its real-time version 3B42RT; Turk et al.’s (2004) Naval Research Laboratory blended product; and Hsu et al.’s (1997) Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN). Our results showed the following: (1) all six satellite products are capable of capturing the overall spatial distribution and temporal variations of precipitation reasonably well; (2) performance of the satellite products varies for different regions and different precipitation regimes, with better comparison statistics observed over wet regions and for warm seasons; (3) products based solely on satellite observations present regionally and seasonally varying biases, while the gauge-adjustment procedures applied in TRMM 3B42 remove the large-scale bias almost completely; (4) CMORPH exhibits the best performance in depicting the spatial pattern and temporal variations of precipitation; and (5) both the relative magnitude and the phase of the warm season precipitation over China are estimated quite well, but the early morning peak associated with the Mei-Yu rainfall over central eastern China is substantially under-estimated by all satellite products. The work reported in this paper is an integral part of our efforts to construct an analysis
Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.
Bintanja, R; Selten, F M
2014-05-22
Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
CalWater 2015 — Atmospheric Rivers and Aerosol Impacts on Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spackman, J. R.; Ralph, F. M.; Prather, K. A.; Cayan, D.; DeMott, P. J.; Dettinger, M. D.; Doyle, J. D.; Fairall, C. W.; Leung, L. R.; Rosenfeld, D.; Rutledge, S. A.; Waliser, D. E.; White, A. B.
2015-12-01
The CalWater 2015 field experiment was conducted between January and March and consisted of more than fifty science flights, a major research cruise, and continuous ground-based observations coordinated to study phenomena driving the incidence of extreme precipitation events and the variability of water supply along the West Coast of the United States. CalWater 2015 examined key processes linked to (1) atmospheric rivers (ARs) in delivering much of the precipitation associated with major winter storms, and (2) aerosols, originating from local sources as well as from remote continents, within and between storms and their modulating effects on precipitation on the U.S. West Coast. As part of a large interagency field effort including NOAA, DOE, NASA, NSF, and the Naval Research Laboratory, four research aircraft from three government agencies were deployed in coordination with the oceangoing NOAA Ronald H. Brown and were equipped with meteorological and chemical observing systems in near-shore regions of California and the eastern Pacific. At the same time, ground-based measurements from NOAA's HydroMeteorological Testbed (HMT) network on the U.S. West Coast and a major NSF-supported observing site for aerosols and microphysics at Bodega Bay, California provided continuous near surface-level meteorological and chemical observations, respectively, during CalWater 2015. The DOE-sponsored ARM Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) was executed in close coordination with NOAA and NASA facilities and deployed airborne and ship-based observing systems. This presentation summarizes the objectives, implementation strategy, data acquisitions, and some preliminary results from CalWater 2015 addressing science gaps associated with (1) the evolution and structure of ARs including cloud and precipitation processes and air-sea interaction, and (2) aerosol interaction with ARs and the impact on precipitation, including locally-generated aerosol effects on orographic
a Study of Precipitation Using Dual-Frequency and Interferometric Doppler Radars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chilson, Phillip Bruce
The primary focus of this dissertation involves the investigation of precipitation using Doppler radar but using distinctly different methods. Each method will be treated separately. The first part describes an investigation of a tropical thunderstorm that occurred in the summer of 1991 over the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center in Arecibo, Puerto Rico. Observations were made using a vertically pointing, dual-wavelength, collinear beam Doppler radar which permits virtually simultaneous observations of the same pulse volume using transmission and reception of coherent UHF and VHF signals on alternate pulses. This made it possible to measure directly the vertical wind within the sampling volume using the VHF signal while using the UHF signal to study the nature of the precipitation. The observed storm showed strong similarities with systems observed in the Global Atmospheric Research Program's (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) study. The experiment provided a means of determining various parameters associated with the storm, such as the vertical air velocity, the mean fall speeds of the precipitation, and the reflectivity. Rogers proposed a means of deducing the mean fall speed of precipitation particles using the radar reflectivity factor. Using the data from our experiment, the mean precipitation fall speeds were calculated and compared with those that would be inferred from Rogers' method. The results suggest the Rogers method of estimating mean precipitation fall speeds to be unreliable in turbulent environments. The second part reports observations made with the 50 MHz Middle and Upper Atmosphere (MU) radar located at Shigaraki, Japan during May of 1992. The facility was operated in a spatial interferometry (SI) mode while observing frontal precipitation. The data suggest that the presence of precipitation can produce a bias in the SI cross-spectral phase that in turn creates an overestimation of the horizontal wind. The process is likened to
Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Milly, G.
2012-01-01
Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gasparini, N. M.; Han, J.; Johnson, J. P.; Menking, J. A.
2011-12-01
This study uses observations from the Kohala Peninsula, on the Big Island of Hawaii, and numerical modeling, to explore how precipitation gradients may affect fluvial bedrock incision and channel morphology. Orographic precipitation patterns result in over 4 m/yr of rainfall on the wet side of the peninsula and less than 0.5 m/yr on the dry side. These precipitation patterns likely strongly contribute to the observed channel morphology. Further, the region is subsiding, leading to prolonged transient channel evolution. We explore changes in a number of channel morphologic parameters with watershed averaged precipitation rate. We use PRISM precipitation data and data from isohyets developed from historic rain gauge data. Not surprisingly, valley depth, measured from a 10 meter DEM, increases with spatially averaged precipitation rate. We also find that channel profile form varies with precipitation rate, with drier channels exhibiting a straight to slightly concave channel form and wetter channels exhibiting a convex to concave channel form. The precipitation value at which this transition in channel profile form occurs depends on the precipitation data-set used, highlighting the need for more accurate measurements of precipitation in settings with extreme precipitation patterns similar to our study area. The downstream pattern in precipitation is likely significant in the development of the convex-concave profile form. Numerical modeling results support that precipitation patterns such as those observed on the wet-side of the Kohala Peninsula may contribute to the convex-concave profile form. However, we emphasize that while precipitation patterns may contribute to the channel form, these channel features are transient and not expected to be sustained in steady-state landscapes. We also emphasize that it is fluvial discharge, as driven by precipitation, rather than precipitation alone, that drives the processes shaping the channel form. Because fluvial discharge is
Statistical downscaling of summer precipitation over northwestern South America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palomino Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba Machado, Samir; Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Sonia; Castro Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban Parra, María
2015-04-01
In this study a statistical downscaling (SD) model using Principal Component Regression (PCR) for simulating summer precipitation in Colombia during the period 1950-2005, has been developed, and climate projections during the 2071-2100 period by applying the obtained SD model have been obtained. For these ends the Principal Components (PCs) of the SLP reanalysis data from NCEP were used as predictor variables, while the observed gridded summer precipitation was the predictand variable. Period 1950-1993 was utilized for calibration and 1994-2010 for validation. The Bootstrap with replacement was applied to provide estimations of the statistical errors. All models perform reasonably well at regional scales, and the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between predicted and observed gridded precipitation values show high values (between 0.5 and 0.93) along Andes range, north and north Pacific of Colombia. Additionally, the ability of the MIROC5 GCM to simulate the summer precipitation in Colombia, for present climate (1971-2005), has been analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. The simulation obtained by this GCM strongly overestimates the precipitation along a horizontal sector through the center of Colombia, especially important at the east and west of this country. However, the SD model applied to the SLP of the GCM shows its ability to faithfully reproduce the rainfall field. Finally, in order to get summer precipitation projections in Colombia for the period 1971-2100, the downscaled model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, has been applied to the SLP output from MIROC5 model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes estimated by the SD models are not significant under the RCP2.6 scenario, while for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios a significant increase of precipitation appears regard to the present values in all the regions, reaching around the 27% in northern
An attempt to obtain a detailed declination chart from the United States magnetic anomaly map
Alldredge, L.R.
1989-01-01
Modern declination charts of the United States show almost no details. It was hoped that declination details could be derived from the information contained in the existing magnetic anomaly map of the United States. This could be realized only if all of the survey data were corrected to a common epoch, at which time a main-field vector model was known, before the anomaly values were computed. Because this was not done, accurate declination values cannot be determined. In spite of this conclusion, declination values were computed using a common main-field model for the entire United States to see how well they compared with observed values. The computed detailed declination values were found to compare less favourably with observed values of declination than declination values computed from the IGRF 1985 model itself. -from Author
Identification and observations of the plasma mantle at low altitude
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Newell, P.T.; Meng, Ching-I.; Sanchez, E.R.
1991-01-01
The direct injection of magnetosheath plasma into the cusp produces at low altitude a precipitation regime with an energy-latitude dispersion-the more poleward portion of which the authors herein term the cusp plume. An extensive survey of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F7 and F9 32 eV to 30 keV precipitating particle data shows that similar dispersive signatures exist over much of the dayside, just poleward of the auroral oval. Away from noon (or more precisely, anywhere not immediately poleward of the cusp) the fluxes are reduced by a factor of about 10 as compared to the cusp plume, butmore » other characteristics are quite similar. For example, the inferred temperatures and flow velocities, and the characteristic decline of energy and number flux with increasing latitude is essentially the same in a longitudinally broad ring of precipitation a few degrees thick in latitude over much of the dayside. They conclude that the field lines on which such precipitation occurs thread the magnetospheric plasma mantle over the entire longitudinally extended ring. Besides the location of occurence (i.e., immediately poleward of the dayside oval), the identification is based especially on the associated very soft ion spectra, which have densities from a few times 10{sup {minus}2} to a few times 10{sup {minus}1}/cm{sup 3}; on the temperature range, which is form from a few tens of eV up to about 200 eV; amd on the characteristic gradients with latitude. Further corroborating evidence that the precipitation is associated with field lines which thread the plasma mantle includes drift meter observations which show that regions so identified based on the particle data consistently lie on antisunward convecting field lines. The observations indicate that some dayside high-latitude auroral features just poleward of the auroral oval are embedded in the plasma mantle.« less
Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Bingjun; Chen, Junfan; Chen, Xiaohong; Lian, Yanqing; Wu, Lili
2013-10-01
Extreme precipitation events are rare and occur mostly on a relatively small and local scale, which makes it difficult to set the thresholds for extreme precipitations in a large basin. Based on the long term daily precipitation data from 62 observation stations in the Pearl River Basin, this study has assessed the applicability of the non-parametric, parametric, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) methods in determining extreme precipitation threshold (EPT) and the certainty to EPTs from each method. Analyses from this study show the non-parametric absolute critical value method is easy to use, but unable to reflect the difference of spatial rainfall distribution. The non-parametric percentile method can account for the spatial distribution feature of precipitation, but the problem with this method is that the threshold value is sensitive to the size of rainfall data series and is subjected to the selection of a percentile thus make it difficult to determine reasonable threshold values for a large basin. The parametric method can provide the most apt description of extreme precipitations by fitting extreme precipitation distributions with probability distribution functions; however, selections of probability distribution functions, the goodness-of-fit tests, and the size of the rainfall data series can greatly affect the fitting accuracy. In contrast to the non-parametric and the parametric methods which are unable to provide information for EPTs with certainty, the DFA method although involving complicated computational processes has proven to be the most appropriate method that is able to provide a unique set of EPTs for a large basin with uneven spatio-temporal precipitation distribution. The consistency between the spatial distribution of DFA-based thresholds with the annual average precipitation, the coefficient of variation (CV), and the coefficient of skewness (CS) for the daily precipitation further proves that EPTs determined by the DFA method
Pandey, G.R.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Georgakakos, K.P.
2000-01-01
A hybrid (physical-statistical) scheme is developed to resolve the finescale distribution of daily precipitation over complex terrain. The scheme generates precipitation by combining information from the upper-air conditions and from sparsely distributed station measurements; thus, it proceeds in two steps. First, an initial estimate of the precipitation is made using a simplified orographic precipitation model. It is a steady-state, multilayer, and two-dimensional model following the concepts of Rhea. The model is driven by the 2.5?? ?? 2.5?? gridded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Centers for Environmental Prediction upper-air profiles, and its parameters are tuned using the observed precipitation structure of the region. Precipitation is generated assuming a forced lifting of the air parcels as they cross the mountain barrier following a straight trajectory. Second, the precipitation is adjusted using errors between derived precipitation and observations from nearby sites. The study area covers the northern half of California, including coastal mountains, central valley, and the Sierra Nevada. The model is run for a 5-km rendition of terrain for days of January-March over the period of 1988-95. A jackknife analysis demonstrates the validity of the approach. The spatial and temporal distributions of the simulated precipitation field agree well with the observed precipitation. Further, a mapping of model performance indices (correlation coefficients, model bias, root-mean-square error, and threat scores) from an array of stations from the region indicates that the model performs satisfactorily in resolving daily precipitation at 5-km resolution.
An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M.; Pumpanen, Jukka
2012-04-26
Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 andmore » 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.« less
Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Ribic, Christine A; McCauley, Lisa A
2018-02-06
Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Creamean, Jessie M.; White, Allen B.; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Prather, Kimberly A.
2016-01-01
Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.
Stratocumulus Precipitation and Entrainment Experiment (SPEE) Field Campaign Report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Albrecht, Bruce; Ghate, Virendra; CADeddu, Maria
2016-06-01
The scientific focus of this project was to examine precipitation and entrainment processes in marine stratocumulus clouds. The entrainment studies focused on characterizing cloud turbulence at cloud top using Doppler cloud radar observations. The precipitation studies focused on characterizing the precipitation and the macroscopic properties (cloud thickness, and liquid water path) of the clouds. This project will contribute to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s overall objective of providing the remote-sensing observations needed to improve the representation of key cloud processes in climate models. It will be of direct relevance to the componentsmore » of ARM dealing with entrainment and precipitation processes in stratiform clouds. Further, the radar observing techniques that will be used in this study were developed using ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility observations under Atmospheric System Research (ASR) support. The observing systems operating automatously from a site located just north of the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) aircraft hangar in Marina, California during the period of 1 May to 4 November 2015 included: 1. Microwave radiometer: ARM Microwave Radiometer, 3-Channel (MWR3C) with channels centered at 23.834, 30, and 89 GHz; supported by Dr. Maria Cadeddu. 2. Cloud Radar: CIRPAS 95 GHz Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) Cloud Radar (Centroid Frequency Chirp Rate [CFCR]); operations overseen by Drs. Ghate and Albrecht. 3. Ceilometer: Vaisala CK-14; operations overseen by Drs. Ghate and Albrecht.« less
Controlling Factors of Mercury Wet Deposition and Precipitation Concentrations in Upstate New York
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ye, Z.; Mao, H.; Driscoll, C. T.
2017-12-01
Observations from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) at Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF) suggested that a significant decline in Hg concentrations in precipitation was linked to Hg emission decreases in the United States, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, and yet Hg wet deposition has remained fairly constant over the past two decades. The present study was aimed to investigate how climatic, terrestrial, and anthropogenic factors had influenced the Hg wet deposition flux in upstate New York (NY). To achieve this, an improved Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was employed, which included state-of-the-art Hg and halogen chemistry mechanisms. A base simulation and five sensitivity simulations were conducted. The base simulation used 2010 meteorology, U.S. EPA NEI 2011, and GEOS-Chem output as initial and boundary conditions (ICs and BCs). The five sensitivity runs each changed one condition at the time as follows: 1-3) 2004, 2005, and 2007 meteorology instead of 2010, 4) NEI 2005 Hg anthropogenic emission out of NYS instead of NEI 2011, and 5) no in-state Hg anthropogenic emission. The study period of all the simulations was March - November 2010, and the domain covered the northeastern United States at 12 km resolution. As a result, compared with rural areas in NYS, Hg wet deposition and ambient Hg concentrations in urban areas were affected more significantly by in-state anthropogenic Hg emission. The in-state anthropogenic Hg emissions contributed up to 20% of Hg wet deposition at urban sites and <1% at rural sites during the study period. Using 2005 anthropogenic Hg emissions, around twice of those in 2010, out-of-NYS emissions increased the total in-state Hg wet deposition by 2%. Hg wet deposition flux was greatly affected by meteorological conditions, causing changes varying from a 91% decrease to a factor of 5 increase in monthly accumulated wet deposition amounts. Possible affecting meteorological factors included, not limited to, solar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rauser, F.
2013-12-01
We present results from the German BMBF initiative 'High Definition Cloud and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction -HD(CP)2'. This initiative addresses most of the problems that are discussed in this session in one, unified approach: cloud physics, convection, boundary layer development, radiation and subgrid variability are approached in one organizational framework. HD(CP)2 merges both observation and high performance computing / model development communities to tackle a shared problem: how to improve the understanding of the most important subgrid-scale processes of cloud and precipitation physics, and how to utilize this knowledge for improved climate predictions. HD(CP)2 is a coordinated initiative to: (i) realize; (ii) evaluate; and (iii) statistically characterize and exploit for the purpose of both parameterization development and cloud / precipitation feedback analysis; ultra-high resolution (100 m in the horizontal, 10-50 m in the vertical) regional hind-casts over time periods (3-15 y) and spatial scales (1000-1500 km) that are climatically meaningful. HD(CP)2 thus consists of three elements (the model development and simulations, their observational evaluation and exploitation/synthesis to advance CP prediction) and its first three-year phase has started on October 1st 2012. As a central part of HD(CP)2, the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) has been carried out in spring 2013. In this campaign, high resolution measurements with a multitude of instruments from all major centers in Germany have been carried out in a limited domain, to allow for unprecedented resolution and precision in the observation of microphysics parameters on a resolution that will allow for evaluation and improvement of ultra-high resolution models. At the same time, a local area version of the new climate model ICON of the Max Planck Institute and the German weather service has been developed that allows for LES-type simulations on high resolutions on
Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa
2012-01-01
It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing
Global salinity predictors of western United States precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.
2016-12-01
Moisture transport from the excess of evaporation over precipitation in the global ocean drives terrestrial precipitation patterns. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is sensitive to changes in ocean evaporation and precipitation, and therefore, to changes in the global water cycle. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre EN4.2.0 SSS dataset to search for teleconnections between autumn-lead seasonal salinity signals and winter precipitation over the western United States. NOAA CPC Unified observational US precipitation in winter months is extracted from bounding boxes over the northwest and southwest and averaged. Lead autumn SON SSS in ocean areas that are relatively highly correlated with winter DJF terrestrial precipitation are filtered by a size threshold and treated as individual predictors. After removing linear trends from the response and explanatory variables and accounting for multiple collinearity, we use best subsets regression and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to objectively select the best model to predict terrestrial precipitation using SSS and SST predictors. The combination of autumn SSS and SST predictors can skillfully predict western US winter terrestrial precipitation (R2 = 0.51 for the US Northwest and R2 = 0.7 for the US Southwest). In both cases, SSS is a better predictor than SST. Thus, incorporating SSS can greatly enhance the accuracy of existing precipitation prediction frameworks that use SST-based climate indices and by extension improve watershed management.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nishi, N.; Hamada, A.; Hirose, H.; Hotta, S.; Suzuki, J.
2016-12-01
We have made a quantitative research of the clouds and precipitation during Baiu: the rainy season within the East Asia, using recent satellite observation datasets. As the precipitation dataset, we utilized the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), whose primary source is passive microwave observations. As the cloud dataset, we used our original database CTOP, in which the cloud top height and optical depth are estimated only with the infrared split-window channels of the geostationary satellites. Lookup tables are made by training the infrared observations with the direct cloud observation by CloudSat and CALIPSO. This technique was originally developed only for the tropics but we extended it to the mid-latitude by estimating temperature at the cloud top instead of the height. We analyzed the properties of northward shift of the Baiu precipitation zone over the East China Sea. Abrupt northward shift in mid-June has already been reported. We showed here that the abrupt shift is limited to the western half of the East China Sea. We also analyzed the zonal difference of the precipitation amount in the East China Sea. In the central latitudinal range (30-33N), the amount is larger in the eastern part of the sea. There is no significant zonal contrast in both the activity of the low pressure and the front, while the sea surface temperature in the eastern part is slightly larger than in the western part. The zonal gradient is much smaller than that in the southern region near the Kuroshio Current, but may possibly affect the zonal contrast of the precipitation. By using CTOP cloud top data, we also calculated the occurrence ratio of the cloud with various thresholds of the top height. The ratio of clouds with the tops higher than 12 km in the East China Sea is clearly lower than those over the Continental area and the main Japanese islands.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey
2017-01-01
The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at
Interactions between calcium precipitation and the polyphosphate-accumulating bacteria metabolism.
Barat, R; Montoya, T; Borrás, L; Ferrer, J; Seco, A
2008-07-01
A sequencing batch reactor that is operated for biological phosphorus removal has been operated under different influent calcium concentrations to study the precipitation process and the possible effects of phosphorus precipitation in the biological phosphorus removal process. Four experiments were carried out under different influent calcium concentrations ranging from 10 to 90 g Ca m(-3). The experimental results and the equilibrium study, which are based on the saturation index calculation, confirm that the process controlling the calcium behaviour is the calcium phosphate precipitation. This precipitation takes place at two stages: initially, precipitation of the amorphous calcium phosphate, and later crystallization of hydroxyapatite. Also the accumulation of phosphorus precipitated was observed when the influent calcium concentration was increased. In all the experiments, the influent wastewater ratio P/COD was kept constant. It has been observed that, at high calcium concentration, the ratio between phosphate release and acetate uptake (P(rel)/Ac(uptake)) decreases. Changes in the polyphosphate-accumulating organism (PAO) population and in the glycogen-accumulating organism (GAO) population during the experimental period were ruled out by means of fluorescence in situ hybridization. These results could suggest that PAO are able to change their metabolic pathways based on external conditions, such as influent calcium concentration. The accumulation of phosphorus precipitated as calcium phosphate at high influent calcium concentration throughout the experimental period confirmed that phosphate precipitation is a process that can affect the PAO metabolism.
ULF waves associated with enhanced subauroral proton precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Immel, Thomas J.; Mende, S. B.; Frey, H. U.; Patel, J.; Bonnell, J. W.; Engebretson, M. J.; Fuselier, S. A.
Several types of sub-auroral proton precipitation events have been identified using the Spectrographic Imager (SI) onboard the NASA-IMAGE satellite, including dayside subauroral proton flashes and detached proton arcs in the dusk sector. These have been observed at various levels of geomagnetic activity and solar wind conditions and the mechanism driving the precipitation has often been assumed to be scattering of protons into the loss cone by enhancement of ion-cyclotron waves in the interaction of the thermal plasmaspheric populations and more energetic ring current particles. Indeed, recent investigation of the detached arcs using the MPA instruments aboard the LANL geosynchronous satellites has shown there are nearly always heightened densities of cold plasma on high-altitude field lines which map down directly to the sub-auroral precipitation. If the ion-cyclotron instability is a causative mechanism, the enhancement of wave activity at ion-cyclotron frequencies should be measurable. It is here reported that magnetic pulsations in the Pc1 range occur in the vicinity of each of 4 detached arcs observed in 2000-2002, though with widely varying signatures. Additionally, longer period pulsations in the Pc5 ranges are also observed in the vicinity of the arcs, leading to the conclusion that a bounce-resonance of ring-current protons with the azimuthal Pc5 wave structure may also contribute to the detached precipitation.
Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations
O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik; ...
2016-06-19
This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental designmore » has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less
Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik
This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental designmore » has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less
Preliminary microphysical characterization of precipitation at ground over Antarctica coast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Montopoli, Mario; Baldini, Luca; Dietrich, Stefano; Porcù, Federico
2017-04-01
The primary mass input of the Antarctic ice sheet is snow precipitation which is one of the most direct climatic indicators. Climatic model simulations of precipitations over Antarctica is an important task to assess the variation of ice sheet over long temporal scale. The main source of precipitation information in Antarctica regions derive from satellite observations. However, satellite measurements and products need to be calibrated and validated with observations from ground sensors. In spite of their key role, precipitation measurements at ground are scarce and not appropriate to provide the specific characteristic of precipitation particles that influence the scattering and absorption properties of ice particles. Recently, different stations in Antarctica (Princess Elizabeth, McMurdo, Mario Zucchelli) are equipping observatories for cloud and precipitation observations. The setup of the observatory at the Italian Station, Mario Zucchelli (MZ) plans to integrate the current instrumentation for weather measurements with other instruments specific for precipitation observations, in particular, a 24-GHz vertical pointing radar and a laser disdrometer Parsivel. The synergetic use of the set of instruments allows for characterizing precipitation and studying properties of Antarctic precipitation such as dimension, shapes, fall behavior, density of particles, particles size distribution, particles terminal velocity, reflectivity factor and including some information on their vertical extent. Last November, the OTT Parsivel disdrometer was installed on the roof of a logistic container (at 6 m of height) of the MZ station (Latitude 74° 41' 42" S; Longitude 164° 07' 23E") in the Terranova Bay. The disdrometer measures size and fall velocity of particles, passing through a laser matrix from which the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) is obtained. In addition, some products such as reflectivity factor, snow rate and snow accumulation can be inferred by properly
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stanfield, Ryan Evan
Global circulation/climate models (GCMs) remain as an invaluable tool to predict future potential climate change. To best advise policy makers, assessing and increasing the accuracy of climate models is paramount. The treatment of clouds, radiation and precipitation in climate models and their associated feedbacks have long been one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting any potential future climate changes. Three versions of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM (the frozen CMIP5 version [C5], a post-CMIP5 version with modifications to cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations [P5], and the most recent version of the GCM which builds on the post-CMIP5 version with further modifications to convective cloud ice and cold pool parameterizations [E5]) have been compared with various satellite observations to analyze how recent modifications to the GCM has impacted cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties. In addition to global comparisons, two areas are showcased in regional analyses: the Eastern Pacific Northern ITCZ (EP-ITCZ), and Indonesia and the Western Pacific (INDO-WP). Changes to the cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations in the P5 version of the GCM have improved cloud and radiation estimations in areas of descending motion, such as the Southern Mid-Latitudes. Ice particle size and fall speed modifications in the E5 version of the GCM have decreased ice cloud water contents and cloud fractions globally while increasing precipitable water vapor in the model. Comparisons of IWC profiles show that the GCM simulated IWCs increase with height and peak in the upper portions of the atmosphere, while 2C-ICE observations peak in the lower levels of the atmosphere and decrease with height, effectively opposite of each other. Profiles of CF peak at lower heights in the E5 simulation, which will potentially increase outgoing longwave radiation due to higher cloud top temperatures, which will counterbalance the decrease in reflected
Characterization of Calcite Mineral Precipitation Process by EICP in Porous Media
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, D.; Mahabadi, N.; Hall, C.; Jang, J.; van Paassen, L. A.
2017-12-01
One of the most prevalent ground improvement techniques is injection of synthetic materials, such as cement grout or silicates into the pore space to create cementing bonds between soil particles. Besides these traditional ground improvement methods, several biological processes have been developed to improve soil properties. Enzyme induced carbonate precipitation (EICP) is a biological process in which urea hydrolyzes into ammonia and inorganic carbon, and promotes carbonate mineral precipitation. Different morphologies and patterns of calcite mineral precipitation, such as particle surface coating, pore filling, and soil particles bonding, have been observed in the previous studies. Most of the researches have detected precipitated minerals after the completion of the treatment using SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) imaging and XRD (X-ray Diffractometer) structural analysis. In this research, an EICP reaction medium is injected into a microfluidic chip to observe the entire process of carbonate precipitation through several cycles of EICP treatment in the porous medium. Once the process of mineral precipitation is completed, water is injected into the microfluidic chip with different flow rates to evaluate the stability of carbonates during fluid flow injection.
Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.
2014-12-01
Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.