Multi-decadal frontal change rates of tidewater glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Alison; Copland, Luke; Stokes, Chris; Bentley, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent studies of post-2000 observational data have shown variability in the dynamic ice discharge of tidewater glaciers throughout the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Expanding this to all tidewater glaciers in the region on a decadal time scale using earlier records can help identify when glacier retreat began, and determine longer-term temporal trends in mass balance. Our study shows that over 94% of 300 tidewater glaciers in the CAA (from southern Baffin Island to Ellesmere Island, excluding those on the northern coast) have retreated since the earliest observational records (aerial photographs acquired in 1958-1960). Mean overall length change rate of the 211 glaciers in the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) is -9.3 ma-1 (± 1.38 SE), and of the 89 glaciers on Baffin and Bylot Islands (BBI) is -7.1 ma-1 (± 0.72 SE). Mean frontal widths of tidewater glaciers in the QEI are greater than those on islands to the south, resulting in greater mean area loss from this region. Each glacier has 6 frontal positions digitised from a range of image sources at approximately decadal intervals. Length change rates have been calculated across each time interval for each glacier, based on area changes divided by glacier frontal width. Results indicate a similar temporal pattern throughout the region, whereby glaciers show minimal change in early years with retreat rates slowly increasing, followed by acceleration in retreat rates since the late 1990s. Mean change rates in the QEI and BBI in the 1960s were -6.92 ma-1 and -0.51 ma-1 respectively, increasing to -28.96 ma-1 and -24.84 ma-1 since 2010. The same trend (at differing magnitudes) has been observed within each latitudinal degree band, and for glaciers of differing frontal widths. Further observations of glacier changes and links to climate change are revealed on the poster.

75 FR 40853 - Postal Rate Changes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION [Order No. 485; Docket No. R2010-4] Postal Rate Changes AGENCY... implementing rate changes for market dominant postal products, which include First- Class Mail, was adopted. In general, the new approach envisions annual rate adjustments based on changes in a specified Consumer Price...

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

2005-01-01

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Spacecraft Spin Rate Change due to Propellant Redistribution Between Tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kyu Hong

1984-09-01

A bubble trapped in the liquid manifold of INTELSAT IV F-7 spacecraft caused a mass imbalance between the System 1 propellant tanks and a wobble half angle of 0.38 degree to 0.48 degree. A maneuver in May 14, 1980 passed the bubble through the axial jet and allowed propellant to redistribute. A 0.2 rpm change in spin rate was observed with an exponential decay time constant of 6 minutes. In this paper, moment of inertia, tank geometry and hydrodynamics models are derived to match the observed spin rate data. The values of the total mass of the propellant considered were 16, 19 and 20 Kgs with corresponding mass imbalances of 14.3, 15 and 15.1 Kgs, respectively. The result shows excellent agreement with observed spin rate data but it was necessary to assume a greater mass of hydrazine in the tanks than propellant accounting indicated.

18 CFR 154.301 - Changes in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Changes in rates. 154.301 Section 154.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Changes § 154.301 Changes in rates. (a) Except for changes in rates pursuant to subparts E, F and G, of...

18 CFR 154.301 - Changes in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Changes in rates. 154.301 Section 154.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Changes § 154.301 Changes in rates. (a) Except for changes in rates pursuant to subparts E, F and G, of...

18 CFR 154.301 - Changes in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Changes in rates. 154.301 Section 154.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Changes § 154.301 Changes in rates. (a) Except for changes in rates pursuant to subparts E, F and G, of...

18 CFR 154.301 - Changes in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Changes in rates. 154.301 Section 154.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Changes § 154.301 Changes in rates. (a) Except for changes in rates pursuant to subparts E, F and G, of...

18 CFR 154.301 - Changes in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Changes in rates. 154.301 Section 154.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Changes § 154.301 Changes in rates. (a) Except for changes in rates pursuant to subparts E, F and G, of...

The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano.

PubMed

Dieterich, J; Cayol, V; Okubo, P

2000-11-23

Stress changes in the Earth's crust are generally estimated from model calculations that use near-surface deformation as an observational constraint. But the widespread correlation of changes of earthquake activity with stress has led to suggestions that stress changes might be calculated from earthquake occurrence rates obtained from seismicity catalogues. Although this possibility has considerable appeal, because seismicity data are routinely collected and have good spatial and temporal resolution, the method has not yet proven successful, owing to the non-linearity of earthquake rate changes with respect to both stress and time. Here, however, we present two methods for inverting earthquake rate data to infer stress changes, using a formulation for the stress- and time-dependence of earthquake rates. Application of these methods at Kilauea volcano, in Hawaii, yields good agreement with independent estimates, indicating that earthquake rates can provide a practical remote-sensing stress meter.

78 FR 52223 - Change in Postal Rates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-22

... POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. CP2013-77; Order No. 1812] Change in Postal Rates AGENCY... Service filing concerning the Postal Service's intention to change rates for Inbound International... intention to change rates for Inbound International Expedited Services 2, effective January 1, 2014.\\1\\ The...

Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.

PubMed

Kemp, David B; Eichenseer, Kilian; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2015-11-10

Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change.

PubMed

Petersen, Alexander M; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

2010-06-01

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T)(-Ω) , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "preshocks" before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market under-reaction" that lasts at least one trading day.

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2010-06-01

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)˜(t-T)-Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of “preshocks” before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the “sign effect,” in which “bad news” has a larger impact than “good news.” Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a “market under-reaction” that lasts at least one trading day.

Rates of change of the earth's magnetic field measured by recent analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, C. G. A.; Huang, Qilin

1990-01-01

Typical rates of change of the earth's magnetic field are presented as a function of the earth's spherical harmonics. Harmonics up to the eight degree are analyzed. With the increase in the degree of the harmonics an increase in the relative rate of change can be observed. For higher degrees, the rate of change can be predicted. This enables a differentiation between harmonics originating in the core and harmonics caused by crustal magnetization. The westward drift of the magnetic field depends on the longitudinal gradient of the field. In order to determine the longitudinal motions, harmonics up to degree 20 can be utilized. The average rate of secular acceleration increases with the degree of harmonics from 0.001 deg/sq yr for a dipole term to an average of 0.05 deg/sq yr for degree eight harmonics.

Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: possible signatures of induced seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The rate of ML≥3 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States increased beginning in 2009, particularly in Oklahoma and central Arkansas, where fluid injection has occurred. We find evidence that suggests these rate increases are man‐made by examining the rate changes in a catalog of ML≥3 earthquakes in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, as well as rate changes in a catalog of ML≥2.2 earthquakes in central Arkansas, which had a history of earthquake swarms prior to the start of injection in 2009. In both cases, stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models and statistical tests demonstrate that the earthquake rate change is statistically significant, and both the background rate of independent earthquakes and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 to explain the observed increase in seismicity. This suggests that a significant change in the underlying triggering process occurred. Both parameters vary, even when comparing natural to potentially induced swarms in Arkansas, which suggests that changes in both the background rate and the aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish man‐made from natural earthquake rate changes. In Arkansas we also compare earthquake and injection well locations, finding that earthquakes within 6 km of an active injection well tend to occur closer together than those that occur before, after, or far from active injection. Thus, like a change in productivity, a change in interevent distance distribution may also be an indicator of induced seismicity.

How can we Optimize Global Satellite Observations of Glacier Velocity and Elevation Changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, M. J.; Pritchard, M. E.; Zheng, W.

2015-12-01

We have started a global compilation of glacier surface elevation change rates measured by altimeters and differencing of Digital Elevation Models and glacier velocities measured by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical feature tracking as well as from Interferometric SAR (InSAR). Our goal is to compile statistics on recent ice flow velocities and surface elevation change rates near the fronts of all available glaciers using literature and our own data sets of the Russian Arctic, Patagonia, Alaska, Greenland and Antarctica, the Himalayas, and other locations. We quantify the percentage of the glaciers on the planet that can be regarded as fast flowing glaciers, with surface velocities of more than 50 meters per year, while also recording glaciers that have elevation change rates of more than 2 meters per year. We examine whether glaciers have significant interannual variations in velocities, or have accelerated or stagnated where time series of ice motions are available. We use glacier boundaries and identifiers from the Randolph Glacier Inventory. Our survey highlights glaciers that are likely to react quickly to changes in their mass accumulation rates. The study also identifies geographical areas where our knowledge of glacier dynamics remains poor. Our survey helps guide how frequently observations must be made in order to provide quality satellite-derived velocity and ice elevation observations at a variety of glacier thermal regimes, speeds and widths. Our objectives are to determine to what extent the joint NASA and Indian Space Research Organization Synthetic Aperture Radar mission (NISAR) will be able to provide global precision coverage of ice speed changes and to determine how to optimize observations from the global constellation of satellite missions to record important changes to glacier elevations and velocities worldwide.

Normal rates of cognitive change in successful aging: the freedom house study.

PubMed

Royall, Donald R; Palmer, Raymond; Chiodo, Laura K; Polk, Marsha J

2005-11-01

We determined the rates of cognitive change associated with twenty individual measures. Participants included 547 noninstitutionalized septuagenarians and octogenarian residents of a comprehensive care retirement community who were studied over three years. Latent growth curves (LGC) of multiple cognitive measures were compared to a LGC model of the rates of change in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). All curves were standardized relative to each variable's baseline distribution. Baseline scores were within their expected normal age-specific ranges. Most measures showed significant rates of change over time. There was also significant variability about those rates, suggesting clinical heterogeneity. Many deteriorated over time, as did ADLs and IADLs. However, performance on some measures improved, consistent with learning effects. The rates of change in two measures, the Executive Interview and the Trail Making Test, were closely related to decline in IADLs. These results suggest that age-related cognitive decline is a dynamic longitudinal process affecting multiple cognitive domains. Heterogeneity in the rates of cognitive change may reflect the summed effects of age and comorbid conditions affecting cognition. Some measures may be ill-suited for measuring age-related changes in cognition, either because they are insensitive to change, or hindered by learning effects. Nonverbal measures appear to be particularly well suited for the prediction of age-related functional decline. These observations are relevant to the definition and diagnosis of "dementing" conditions.

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

Perspectives on massive coral growth rates in a changing ocean.

PubMed

Lough, Janice M; Cantin, Neal E

2014-06-01

The tropical ocean environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, with warming and severe tropical cyclones creating obvious impacts to coral reefs within the last few decades and projections of acidification raising concerns for the future of these iconic and economically important ecosystems. Documenting variability and detecting change in global and regional climate relies upon high-quality observational records of climate variables supplemented, prior to the mid-19th century, with reconstructions from various sources of proxy climate information. Here we review how annual density banding patterns that are recorded in the skeletons of massive reef-building corals have been used to document environmental change and impacts within coral reefs. Massive corals provide a historical perspective of continuous calcification processes that pre-date most ecological observations of coral reefs. High-density stress bands, abrupt declines in annual linear extension, and evidence of partial mortality within the skeletal growth record reveal signatures of catastrophic stress events that have recently been attributed to mass bleaching events caused by unprecedented thermal stress. Comparison of recent trends in annual calcification with century-scale baseline calcification rates reveals that the frequency of growth anomalies has increased since the late 1990s throughout most of the world's coral reef ecosystems. Continuous coral growth histories provide valuable retrospective information on the coral response to environmental change and the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Co-ordinated efforts to synthesize and combine global calcification histories will greatly enhance our understanding of current calcification responses to a changing ocean. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

An "Emergent Model" for Rate of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herbert, Sandra; Pierce, Robyn

2008-01-01

Does speed provide a "model for" rate of change in other contexts? Does JavaMathWorlds (JMW), animated simulation software, assist in the development of the "model for" rate of change? This project investigates the transference of understandings of rate gained in a motion context to a non-motion context. Students were 27 14-15 year old students at…

Forecasting the Change of Renal Stone Occurrence Rates in Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J.; Goodenow, D.; Gokoglu, S.; Kassemi, M.

2016-01-01

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidences of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question How much does this risk change with space flight? remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone occurrence.

The relationship between experimental geometry, heat rate, and ultrasound wave speed measurement while observing phase changes in highly attenuative materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah L.; Jack, David A.

2018-04-01

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors' previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile is presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. The trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.

The Relationship Between Experimental Geometry Heat Rate and Ultrasound Wave Speed Measurement While Observing Phase Changes in Highly Attenuative Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah Louise; Jack, David A.

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors’ previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile ismore » presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. Lastly, the trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.« less

The Relationship Between Experimental Geometry Heat Rate and Ultrasound Wave Speed Measurement While Observing Phase Changes in Highly Attenuative Materials

DOE PAGES

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah Louise; Jack, David A.

2018-04-01

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors’ previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile ismore » presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. Lastly, the trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.« less

Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, T.

2001-12-01

Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

The Influence of Shoreline Curvature on Rates of Shoreline Change on Sandy Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Lauzon, R.; Cheng, S.; Liu, J.; Lazarus, E.

2017-12-01

The sandy, low-lying barrier islands which characterize much of the US East and Gulf coasts are popular spots to live and vacation, and are often heavily developed. However, sandy shorelines and barriers are also naturally mobile landforms, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms and can experience high rates of shoreline change. Many previous studies have attempted to understand and quantify the factors that contribute to those rates of shoreline change, such as grain size, underlying geology, sea level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Shoreline curvature has not been considered in such analyses, but previous research has demonstrated that subtle coastline curvature (and therefore alongshore variation in relative offshore wave angle) can result in gradients in net alongshore transport that cause significant shoreline erosion or accretion. Here we present the results of a spatially extensive analysis of the correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates for the sandy shorelines of the US East and Gulf coasts. We find that, for wave-dominated sandy coasts where nourishment and shoreline stabilization do not dominate the shoreline change signal (such as parts of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida), there is a significant negative correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates over 1 - 5 km and decadal to centurial space and time scales. This correlation indicates that a portion of the coastal erosion (and accretion) observed in these areas can be explained by the smoothing of subtle coastline curvature by gradients in alongshore transport, and suggests that shoreline curvature should be included in future attempts to understand historical and future rates of shoreline change. Shoreline stabilization, especially through beach nourishment, complicates the relationship between curvature and shoreline change. Beach construction during nourishment creates a seaward convex curvature in the part of the shoreline moves

Experimental evaluation of shark detection rates by aerial observers.

PubMed

Robbins, William D; Peddemors, Victor M; Kennelly, Steven J; Ives, Matthew C

2014-01-01

Aerial surveys are a recognised technique to identify the presence and abundance of marine animals. However, the capability of aerial observers to reliably sight coastal sharks has not been previously assessed, nor have differences in sighting rates between aircraft types been examined. In this study we investigated the ability of observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft to sight 2.5 m artificial shark analogues placed at known depths and positions. Initial tests revealed that the shark analogues could only be detected at shallow depths, averaging only 2.5 m and 2.7 m below the water surface for observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, respectively. We then deployed analogues at shallower depths along a 5 km-long grid, and assessed their sightability to aircraft observers through a series of transects flown within 500 m. Analogues were seen infrequently from all distances, with overall sighting rates of only 12.5% and 17.1% for fixed-wing and helicopter observers, respectively. Although helicopter observers had consistently higher success rates of sighting analogues within 250 m of their flight path, neither aircraft observers sighted more than 9% of analogues deployed over 300 m from their flight paths. Modelling of sighting rates against environmental and experimental variables indicated that observations were affected by distance, aircraft type, sun glare and sea conditions, while the range of water turbidities observed had no effect. We conclude that aerial observers have limited ability to detect the presence of submerged animals such as sharks, particularly when the sharks are deeper than ∼ 2.6 m, or over 300 m distant from the aircraft's flight path, especially during sunny or windy days. The low rates of detections found in this study cast serious doubts on the use of aerial beach patrols as an effective early-warning system to prevent shark attacks.

Experimental Evaluation of Shark Detection Rates by Aerial Observers

PubMed Central

Robbins, William D.; Peddemors, Victor M.; Kennelly, Steven J.; Ives, Matthew C.

2014-01-01

Aerial surveys are a recognised technique to identify the presence and abundance of marine animals. However, the capability of aerial observers to reliably sight coastal sharks has not been previously assessed, nor have differences in sighting rates between aircraft types been examined. In this study we investigated the ability of observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft to sight 2.5 m artificial shark analogues placed at known depths and positions. Initial tests revealed that the shark analogues could only be detected at shallow depths, averaging only 2.5 m and 2.7 m below the water surface for observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, respectively. We then deployed analogues at shallower depths along a 5 km-long grid, and assessed their sightability to aircraft observers through a series of transects flown within 500 m. Analogues were seen infrequently from all distances, with overall sighting rates of only 12.5% and 17.1% for fixed-wing and helicopter observers, respectively. Although helicopter observers had consistently higher success rates of sighting analogues within 250 m of their flight path, neither aircraft observers sighted more than 9% of analogues deployed over 300 m from their flight paths. Modelling of sighting rates against environmental and experimental variables indicated that observations were affected by distance, aircraft type, sun glare and sea conditions, while the range of water turbidities observed had no effect. We conclude that aerial observers have limited ability to detect the presence of submerged animals such as sharks, particularly when the sharks are deeper than ∼2.6 m, or over 300 m distant from the aircraft's flight path, especially during sunny or windy days. The low rates of detections found in this study cast serious doubts on the use of aerial beach patrols as an effective early-warning system to prevent shark attacks. PMID:24498258

Observed Changes in the Himalayan Glaciers: Multiple Driving Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romshoo, Shakil; Rashid, Irfan; Abdullah, Tariq; Fayaz, Midhat

2017-04-01

area was observed in the mountainous ranges with altitudes below 4500m asl The glaciers above 5000m showed the lowest rate of glacial retreat in the region. The other parameters like snout retreat, ELA changes, volume and other parameters observed in all the six ranges also showed strong correlation with topography. Detailed analyses of the topographic, climatic and black carbon emission data was carried out to understand the enhanced glacial recession observed in the Kashmir valley. The climate change signals are quite loud and clear in the region and the higher rates of recession are due to the significant increase in the observed minimum winter temperatures. In Kashmir, precipitation is falling more as rain than snow due to the warming in winter. Further, the concentration of black carbon in the valley is highest compared to the other high altitude station in the Himalaya (5.9 gm-2). All these factors are responsible for the decrease in the volume and extent of the glaciers in Kashmir Himalaya.

Association Between Facial Rejuvenation and Observer Ratings of Youth, Attractiveness, Success, and Health

PubMed Central

Bater, Kristin L.; Papel, Ira D.; Kontis, Theda C.; Byrne, Patrick J.; Boahene, Kofi D. O.; Nellis, Jason C.; Ishii, Masaru

2017-01-01

Importance Surgical procedures for the aging face—including face-lift, blepharoplasty, and brow-lift—consistently rank among the most popular cosmetic services sought by patients. Although these surgical procedures are broadly classified as procedures that restore a youthful appearance, they may improve societal perceptions of attractiveness, success, and health, conferring an even larger social benefit than just restoring a youthful appearance to the face. Objectives To determine if face-lift and upper facial rejuvenation surgery improve observer ratings of age, attractiveness, success, and health and to quantify the effect of facial rejuvenation surgery on each individual domain. Design, Setting, and Participants A randomized clinical experiment was performed from August 30 to September 18, 2016, using web-based surveys featuring photographs of patients before and after facial rejuvenation surgery. Observers were randomly shown independent images of the 12 patients; within a given survey, observers saw either the preoperative or postoperative photograph of each patient to reduce the possibility of priming. Observers evaluated patient age using a slider bar ranging from 30 to 80 years that could be moved up or down in 1-year increments, and they ranked perceived attractiveness, success, and health using a 100-point visual analog scale. The bar on the 100-point scale began at 50; moving the bar to the right corresponded to a more positive rating in these measures and moving the bar to the left, a more negative rating. Main Outcomes and Measures A multivariate mixed-effects regression model was used to understand the effect of face-lift and upper facial rejuvenation surgery on observer perceptions while accounting for individual biases of the participants. Ordinal rank change was calculated to understand the clinical effect size of changes across the various domains after surgery. Results A total of 504 participants (333 women, 165 men, and 6 unspecified; mean

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

Self-rated and observer-rated measures of well-being and distress in adolescence: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Vescovelli, Francesca; Albieri, Elisa; Ruini, Chiara

2014-01-01

The evaluation of eudaimonic well-being in adolescence is hampered by the lack of specific assessment tools. Moreover, with younger populations, the assessment of positive functioning may be biased by self-report data only, and may be more accurate by adding significant adults' evaluations. The objective of this research was to measure adolescents' well-being and prosocial behaviours using self-rated and observer-rated instruments, and their pattern of associations. The sample included 150 Italian high school adolescents. Observed-evaluation was performed by their school teachers using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Adolescents completed Ryff's Psychological Well-being Scales and Symptom Questionnaire. Pearson' r correlations and Linear regression were performed. Self-rated dimensions of psychological well-being significantly correlated with all observer-rated dimensions, but Strengths and Difficulties Emotional symptom scale. Multiple linear regression showed that the self-rated dimensions Environmental Mastery and Personal Growth, and surprisingly not Positive Relations, are related to the observer-rated dimension Prosocial Behaviour. Adolescents with higher levels of well-being in specific dimensions tend to be perceived as less problematic by their teachers. However, some dimensions of positive functioning present discrepancies between self and observer-rated instruments. Thus, the conjunct use of self-reports and observer-rated tools for a more comprehensive assessment of students' eudaimonic well-being is recommended.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2014-05-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. The hazardous consequences reach out on a national and continental scale. Environmental measurements and methods to model the transport and dispersion of the released radionuclides serve as a platform to assess the regional impact of nuclear accidents - both, for research purposes and, more important, to determine the immediate threat to the population. However, the assessments of the regional radionuclide activity concentrations and the individual exposure to radiation dose underlie several uncertainties. For example, the accurate model representation of wet and dry deposition. One of the most significant uncertainty, however, results from the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source terms of severe nuclear accidents may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on rather rough estimates of released key radionuclides given by the operators. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. Inverse modelling can be used to realise a feasible estimation of the source term (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). Existing point measurements of radionuclide activity concentrations are therefore combined with atmospheric transport models. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site are then obtained by improving the agreement between the modelled and observed concentrations (Stohl et al., 2012). The accuracy of the method and hence of the resulting source term depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2015-04-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The

18 CFR 154.313 - Schedules for minor rate changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Schedules for minor rate changes. 154.313 Section 154.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... Material To Be Filed With Changes § 154.313 Schedules for minor rate changes. (a) A change in a rate or...

18 CFR 154.313 - Schedules for minor rate changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Schedules for minor rate changes. 154.313 Section 154.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... Material To Be Filed With Changes § 154.313 Schedules for minor rate changes. (a) A change in a rate or...

18 CFR 154.313 - Schedules for minor rate changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Schedules for minor rate changes. 154.313 Section 154.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... Material To Be Filed With Changes § 154.313 Schedules for minor rate changes. (a) A change in a rate or...

18 CFR 154.313 - Schedules for minor rate changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Schedules for minor rate changes. 154.313 Section 154.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... Material To Be Filed With Changes § 154.313 Schedules for minor rate changes. (a) A change in a rate or...

18 CFR 154.313 - Schedules for minor rate changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Schedules for minor rate changes. 154.313 Section 154.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... Material To Be Filed With Changes § 154.313 Schedules for minor rate changes. (a) A change in a rate or...

Changes in heart rate associated with contest outcome in agonistic encounters in lobsters.

PubMed

Hernáindez-Falcón, Jesús; Basu, Alo C; Govindasamy, Siddhartan; Kravitz, Edward A

2005-03-01

Agonistic contests between lobsters housed together in a confined space progress through encounters of increasing intensity until a dominance relationship is established. Once this relationship is established, losing animals continually retreat from the advances of winners. These encounters are likely to consume much energy in both winning and losing animals. Therefore, one might expect involvement of many physiological systems before, during and after fights. Here, we report effects of agonistic encounters on cardiac frequency in winning and losing adult lobsters involved in dyadic interactions. The results show that: (i) small but significant increases in heart rate are observed upon chemical detection of a conspecific; (ii) during agonistic interactions, further increases in heart rate are seen; and (iii) ultimate winners exhibit greater increases in heart rate lasting longer periods of time compared to ultimate losers. Heart rate in winners remains elevated for at least 15 min after the contests have ended and animals have been returned to their home tanks. Reduced effects are seen in second and third pairings between familiar opponents. The sustained changes in heart rate that we observe in winning lobsters may result from hormonal modulation of cardiac function related to the change in social status brought about by contest outcome.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

PubMed

Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

2016-09-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Chang'E-5T Orbit Determination Using Onboard GPS Observations.

PubMed

Su, Xing; Geng, Tao; Li, Wenwen; Zhao, Qile; Xie, Xin

2017-06-01

In recent years, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has played an important role in Space Service Volume, the region enclosing the altitudes above 3000 km up to 36,000 km. As an in-flight test for the feasibility as well as for the performance of GNSS-based satellite orbit determination (OD), the Chinese experimental lunar mission Chang'E-5T had been equipped with an onboard high-sensitivity GNSS receiver with GPS and GLONASS tracking capability. In this contribution, the 2-h onboard GPS data are evaluated in terms of tracking performance as well as observation quality. It is indicated that the onboard receiver can track 7-8 GPS satellites per epoch on average and the ratio of carrier to noise spectral density (C/N0) values are higher than 28 dB-Hz for 90% of all the observables. The C1 code errors are generally about 4.15 m but can be better than 2 m with C/N0 values over 36 dB-Hz. GPS-based Chang'E-5T OD is performed and the Helmert variance component estimation method is investigated to determine the weights of code and carrier phase observations. The results reveal that the orbit consistency is about 20 m. OD is furthermore analyzed with GPS data screened out according to different C/N0 thresholds. It is indicated that for the Chang'E-5T, the precision of OD is dominated by the number of observed satellite. Although increased C/N0 thresholds can improve the overall data quality, the available number of GPS observations is greatly reduced and the resulting orbit solution is poor.

The Optimal Observation Problem applied to a rating curve estimation including the "cost-to-wait"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raso, Luciano; Werner, Micha; Weijs, Steven

2013-04-01

In order to manage a system, a decision maker (DM) tries to make the best decision under uncertainty, having partial knowledge on the effects of his/her decision. Observations reduce uncertainty, but are costly. Deciding what to observe and when to stop observing is a complementary problem that the DM has to face. The Optimal Observation Problem (OOP) offers a solution to the questions: (1) which observation is more effective? And (2) Is the next observation worth its cost? We show an application of the OOP to a rating curve estimation in the White Carter River (Scotland). The cost of extra gauging is compensated by the value of better decisions, that reduce the costs due to floods. The observational decision is then whether to gauge, and when. In the application, we include the "cost-to-wait" in the cost structure. The Algorithm find thus an optimal trade-off between getting less informative data now or wait for more informative, but later. The OOP can be used to plan a measurement campaign, also taking into account that the rating curve can change.

18 CFR 342.4 - Other rate changing methodologies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Other rate changing methodologies. 342.4 Section 342.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... METHODOLOGIES AND PROCEDURES § 342.4 Other rate changing methodologies. (a) Cost-of-service rates. A carrier may...

Activity in primary motor cortex during action observation covaries with subsequent behavioral changes in execution.

PubMed

Aridan, Nadav; Mukamel, Roy

2016-11-01

Observing someone else perform a movement facilitates motor planning, execution, and motor memory formation. Rate, an important feature in the execution of repeated movements, has been shown to vary following movement observation although the underlying neural mechanisms are unclear. In the current study, we examined how the rate of self-paced index finger pressing is implicitly modified following passive observation of a similar action performed at a different rate. Fifty subjects performed a finger pressing sequence with their right hand at their own pace before and after passive observation of either a 1-min video depicting the task performed at 3 Hz by someone else or a black screen. An additional set of 15 subjects performed the task in an MRI scanner. Across all 50 subjects, the spontaneous execution rate prior to video observation had a bimodal distribution with modes around 2 and 4 Hz. Following video observation, the slower subjects performed the task at an increased rate. In the 15 subjects who performed the task in the MRI scanner, we found positive correlation between fMRI signal in the left primary motor strip during passive video observation and subsequent behavioral changes in task performance rate. We conclude that observing someone else perform an action at a higher rate implicitly increases the spontaneous rate of execution, and that this implicit induction is mediated by activity in the contralateral primary motor cortex.

Automated Techniques for Quantification of Coastline Change Rates using Landsat Imagery along Caofeidian, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei; Liu, Zhaoqin; Yu, Yang

2014-03-01

This paper focuses on automated extraction and monitoring of coastlines by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along Caofeidian, China. Caofeidian, as one of the active economic regions in China, has experienced dramatic change due to enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation. These processes have caused morphological changes of the Caofeidian shoreline. In this study, shoreline extraction and change analysis are researched. An algorithm based on image texture and mathematical morphology is proposed to automate coastline extraction. We tested this approach and found that it's capable of extracting coastlines from TM and ETM+ images with little human modifications. Then, the detected coastline vectors are imported into Arcgis software, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used to calculate the change rate (the end point rate and linear regression rate). The results show that in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes are observed, especially the accretion rate. The abnormal accretion is mostly attributed to the large-scale land reclamation during 2003 and 2004 in Caofeidian. So we can conclude that various construction projects, especially the land reclamation project, have made Caofeidian shorelines change greatly, far above the normal.

Chang'e-2 spacecraft observations of asteroid 4179 Toutatis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Jianghui; Jiang, Yun; Zhao, Yuhui; Wang, Su; Yu, Liangliang

2016-01-01

On 13 December 2012, Chang'e-2 completed a successful flyby of the near-Earth asteroid 4179 Toutatis at a closest distance of 770 meters from the asteroid's surface. The observations show that Toutatis has an irregular surface and its shape resembles a ginger-root of a smaller lobe (head) and a larger lobe (body). Such bilobate shape is indicative of a contact binary origin for Toutatis. In addition, the high-resolution images better than 3 meters provide a number of new discoveries about this asteroid, such as an 800-meter depression at the end of the large lobe, a sharply perpendicular silhouette near the neck region, boulders, indicating that Toutatis is probably a rubble-pile asteroid. Chang'e-2 observations have significantly revealed new insights into the geological features and the formation and evolution of this asteroid. In final, we brief the future Chinese asteroid mission concept.

Interpreting change from patient reported outcome (PRO) endpoints: patient global ratings of concept versus patient global ratings of change, a case study among osteoporosis patients.

PubMed

Nixon, Annabel; Doll, Helen; Kerr, Cicely; Burge, Russel; Naegeli, April N

2016-02-19

Regulatory guidance recommends anchor-based methods for interpretation of treatment effects measured by PRO endpoints. Methodological pros and cons of patient global ratings of change vs. patient global ratings of concept have been discussed but empirical evidence in support of either approach is lacking. This study evaluated the performance of patient global ratings of change and patient global ratings of concept for interpreting patient stability and patient improvement. Patient global ratings of change and patient global ratings of concept were included in a psychometric validation study of an osteoporosis-targeted PRO instrument (the OPAQ-PF) to assess its ability to detect change and to derive responder definitions. 144 female osteoporosis patients with (n = 37) or without (n = 107) a recent (within 6 weeks) fragility fracture completed the OPAQ-PF and global items at baseline, 2 weeks (no recent fracture), and 12 weeks (recent fracture) post-baseline. Results differed between the two methods. Recent fracture patients reported more improvement while patients without recent fracture reported more stability on ratings of change than ratings of concept. However, correlations with OPAQ-PF score change were stronger for ratings of concept than ratings of change (both groups). Effect sizes for OPAQ-PF score change increased consistently with level of change in ratings of concept but inconsistently with ratings of change, with the mean AUC for prediction of a one-point change being 0.72 vs. 0.56. This study provides initial empirical support for methodological and regulatory recommendations to use patient global ratings of concept rather than ratings of change when interpreting change captured by PRO instruments in studies evaluating treatment effects. These findings warrant being confirmed in a purpose-designed larger scale analysis.

Glove Changing When Handling Money: Observational and Microbiological Analysis.

PubMed

Basch, Corey H; Wahrman, Miryam Z; Shah, Jay; Guerra, Laura A; MacDonald, Zerlina; Marte, Myladys; Basch, Charles E

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of glove changing by mobile food vendors after monetary transactions, and the presence of bacterial contamination on a sample of dollar bills obtained from 25 food vendors near five hospitals in Manhattan, New York City. During 495 monetary transactions observed there were only seven glove changes performed by the workers. Eleven of 34 food workers wore no gloves at all while handling money and food. Nineteen of 25 one-dollar bills collected (76 %) had 400 to 42,000 total bacterial colony-forming units. Colonies were of varied morphology and size. Of these 19 samples, 13 were selected (based on level of growth), and tested for the presence of coliform bacteria, which was found in 10 of the 13 samples. Effective strategies to monitor and increase glove wearing and changing habits of mobile food vendors are needed to reduce risk of foodborne illness.

Polar Ozone Loss Rates: Comparison Of Match Observations With Simulations Of 3-D Chemical Transport Model And Box Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, O. P.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Marchand, M.; Pazmino, A.; Hauchecorne, A.

2005-12-01

Model simulations of ozone loss rates during recent arctic and Antarctic winters are compared with the observed ozone loss rates from the match technique. Arctic winters 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2002/2003 and the Antarctic winter 2003 were considered for the analysis. We use a high resolution chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM and REPROBUS box model for the calculation of ozone loss rates. Trajectory model calculations show that the ozone loss rates are dependent on the initialization fields. On the one hand when chemical fields are initialized by UCAM (University of Cambridge SLIMCAT model simulated fields) the loss rates were underestimated by a factor of two whereas on the other hand when it is initialized by UL (University of Leeds) fields the model loss rates are in a very good agreement with match loss rates at lower levels. The study shows a very good agreement between MIMOSA-CHIM simulation and match observation in 1999/2000 winter at both levels, 450 and 500 K, except slight underestimation in March at 500 K. But in January we have a very good agreement. This is also true for 1994/1995 when we consider simulated ozone loss rate in view of the ECMWF wind deficiency assuming that match observations were not made on isolated trajectories. Sensitivity tests, by changing JCl2O2 value, particle number density and heating rates, performed for the arctic winter 1999/2000 shows that we need to improve our understanding of particle number density and heating rate calculation mechanism. Burkholder JCl2O2 has improved the comparison of MIMOSA-CHIM model results with observations (Tripathi et al., 2005). In the same study the comparison results were shown to improved by changing heating rates and number density through NAT particle sedimentation.

Changing Patterns in Rates and Means of Suicide in California, 2005 to 2013

PubMed Central

Galin, Jessica; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Objectives. To describe recent trends in suicide throughout California and to compare rates and methods of suicide (“means”) across demographic groups. Methods. Data from statewide mortality records were used to estimate age-adjusted rates of suicide from 2005 to 2013, overall and by means, age, gender, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, and county. Results. The suicide rate increased 12.6% between 2005 and 2013, from 11.2 to 12.6 per 100 000 population, but this overall trend masks substantial heterogeneity across subgroups. In particular, rapid increases were observed for individuals of multiple races/ethnicities. Means of suicide changed, trending away from firearms toward suffocation and drug poisoning. Conclusions. High-risk groups and means of suicide are changing rapidly in California, so appropriate public health programming should prioritize population-based strategies. PMID:28177819

Heart rate changes during electroconvulsive therapy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background This observational study documented heart rate over the entire course of electrically induced seizures and aimed to evaluate the effects of stimulus electrode placement, patients' age, stimulus dose, and additional predictors. Method In 119 consecutive patients with 64 right unilateral (RUL) and 55 bifrontal (BF) electroconvulsive treatments, heart rate graphs based on beat-to-beat measurements were plotted up to durations of 130 s. Results In RUL stimulation, the initial drop in heart rate lasted for 12.5 ± 2.6 s (mean ± standard deviation). This depended on stimulus train duration, age, and baseline heart rate. In seizures induced with BF electrode placement, a sympathetic response was observed within the first few seconds of the stimulation phase (median 3.5 s). This was also the case with subconvulsive stimulations. The mean peak heart rate in all 119 treatments amounted to 135 ± 20 bpm and depended on baseline heart rate and seizure duration; electrode placement, charge dose, and age were insignificant in regression analysis. A marked decline in heart rate in connection with seizure cessation occurred in 71% of treatments. Conclusions A significant independent effect of stimulus electrode positioning on cardiac action was evident only in the initial phase of the seizures. Electrical stimulation rather than the seizure causes the initial heart rate increase in BF treatments. The data reveal no rationale for setting the stimulus doses as a function of intraictal peak heart rates (‘benchmark method’). The marked decline in heart rate at the end of most seizures is probably mediated by a baroreceptor reflex. PMID:23764036

Observing and Understanding Tropospheric Ozone Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, Jennifer; Schultz, Martin; Oltmans, Samuel

2010-03-01

Tropospheric Ozone Changes Workshop; Boulder, Colorado, 14-16 October 2009; Prompted by the lack of consensus on, and the need to assess current understanding of, long-term changes in tropospheric ozone, a workshop was held in Colorado to (1) evaluate the consistency of data records; (2) assess robust long-term changes; (3) determine how to combine observations and model studies; and (4) define research and observation needs for the future. At the workshop, long-term ozone records from regionally representative surface and mountain sites, ozonesondes, and aircraft were reviewed by region. In western Europe there are several time series of ˜15-40 years from all platforms. Overall, they show a rise in ozone into the middle to late 1990s and a leveling off, or in some cases declines, in the 2000s, in general agreement with precursor emission changes. However, significant differences in detail in the time series from nearby locations provide less confidence in changes before the late 1990s.

Does a Teacher's Classroom Observation Rating Vary across Multiple Classrooms?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lei, Xiaoxuan; Li, Hongli; Leroux, Audrey J.

2018-01-01

Classroom observations have been increasingly used for teacher evaluations, and it is important to examine the measurement quality and the use of observation ratings. When a teacher is observed in multiple classrooms, his or her observation ratings may vary across classrooms. In that case, using ratings from one classroom per teacher may not be…

Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Caldeira, Ken; Keith, David W

2014-12-28

Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Bidirectional Response of Runoff to Changes in Snowmelt Rate, Timing, and Amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, T. B.; Molotch, N. P.; Tague, C.

2016-12-01

The mountain snowpack is important for runoff generation across the western United States and for one sixth of Earth's population. Climate change induced near surface warming alters the amount of precipitation that falls as snow causing changes in the amount, rate, and timing of snowmelt. Recent work links snowmelt rate to streamflow production across the western United States. Snowmelt rate has also been linked to snowpack magnitude and snowmelt timing. This work seeks to disentangle the relationships between snowmelt rate, timing, and amount to reveal the dominant streamflow generating factor and the physical mechanism through which snowmelt becomes runoff. We use co-located observations of evapotranspiration and snowmelt from Niwot Ridge, CO (3023 m), the Valles Caldera, NM (3030 m), and Providence Creek, CA (2015 m) as well as the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) to assess the linkage between snowmelt rate, amount, timing, and runoff. We conducted 100,000 RHESSys simulations at each site varying the timing, amount, and rate of snowmelt based on the observational record. Analyses of observational data show that years with large peak SWE partition more snowmelt to runoff than to evapotranspiration (r2=0.82, p=0.005). For example water year 2011 with a peak SWE of 0.43 m and a snowmelt rate of 0.62 cm d-1 partitioned 34% of snowmelt to ET. Conversely, water year 2006 with a peak SWE of 0.32 m and a snowmelt rate of 0.1 cm d-1 partitioned 54% of snowmelt to ET. Our simulation results show a bidirectional response between snowmelt rate and timing and runoff efficiency where early, slow snowmelt results in a low runoff efficiency while early, rapid snowmelt results in high runoff efficiency because of a mismatch in water availability and demand (a). Simulation results show a strong relationship between runoff efficiency and snowmelt suggesting that rapid snowmelt is better able to bring the root zone to field capacity and move water to the shallow

Evaluating Teacher Preparation Using Graduates' Observational Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronfeldt, Matthew; Campbell, Shanyce L.

2016-01-01

Despite growing calls for more accountability of teacher education programs (TEPs), there is little consensus about how to evaluate them. This study investigates the potential for using observational ratings of program completers to evaluate TEPs. Drawing on statewide data on almost 9,500 program completers, representing 44 providers (183…

Rate of change in renal function and mortality in elderly treated hypertensive patients.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Enayet K; Langham, Robyn G; Ademi, Zanfina; Owen, Alice; Krum, Henry; Wing, Lindon M H; Nelson, Mark R; Reid, Christopher M

2015-07-07

Evidence relating the rate of change in renal function, measured as eGFR, after antihypertensive treatment in elderly patients to clinical outcome is sparse. This study characterized the rate of change in eGFR after commencement of antihypertensive treatment in an elderly population, the factors associated with eGFR rate change, and the rate's association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Data from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study were used, where 6083 hypertensive participants aged ≥65 years were enrolled during 1995-1997 and followed for a median of 4.1 years (in-trial). Following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study, participants were followed-up for a further median 6.9 years (post-trial). The annual rate of change in the eGFR was calculated in 4940 participants using creatinine measurements during the in-trial period and classified into quintiles (Q) on the basis of the following eGFR changes: rapid decline (Q1), decline (Q2), stable (Q3), increase (Q4), and rapid increase (Q5). A rapid decline in eGFR in comparison with those with stable eGFRs during the in-trial period was associated with older age, living in a rural area, wider pulse pressure at baseline, receiving diuretic-based therapy, taking multiple antihypertensive drugs, and having blood pressure <140/90 mmHg during the study. However, a rapid increase in eGFR was observed in younger women and those with a higher cholesterol level. After adjustment for baseline and in-trial covariates, Cox-proportional hazard models showed a significantly greater risk for both all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.52; P=0.003) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.76; P=0.004) mortality in the rapid decline group compared with the stable group over a median of 7.2 years after the last eGFR measure. No significant association with mortality was observed for a rapid increase in eGFR. In elderly persons with

Baseline response rates affect resistance to change.

PubMed

Kuroda, Toshikazu; Cook, James E; Lattal, Kennon A

2018-01-01

The effect of response rates on resistance to change, measured as resistance to extinction, was examined in two experiments. In Experiment 1, responding in transition from a variable-ratio schedule and its yoked-interval counterpart to extinction was compared with pigeons. Following training on a multiple variable-ratio yoked-interval schedule of reinforcement, in which response rates were higher in the former component, reinforcement was removed from both components during a single extended extinction session. Resistance to extinction in the yoked-interval component was always either greater or equal to that in the variable-ratio component. In Experiment 2, resistance to extinction was compared for two groups of rats that exhibited either high or low response rates when maintained on identical variable-interval schedules. Resistance to extinction was greater for the lower-response-rate group. These results suggest that baseline response rate can contribute to resistance to change. Such effects, however, can only be revealed when baseline response rate and reinforcement rate are disentangled (Experiments 1 and 2) from the more usual circumstance where the two covary. Furthermore, they are more cleanly revealed when the programmed contingencies controlling high and low response rates are identical, as in Experiment 2. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

An observational study of entrainment rate in deep convection

DOE PAGES

Guo, Xiaohao; Lu, Chunsong; Zhao, Tianliang; ...

2015-09-22

This study estimates entrainment rate and investigates its relationships with cloud properties in 156 deep convective clouds based on in-situ aircraft observations during the TOGA-COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment) field campaign over the western Pacific. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on the probability density function of entrainment rate, the relationships between entrainment rate and cloud microphysics, and the effects of dry air sources on the calculated entrainment rate in deep convection from an observational perspective. Results show that the probability density function of entrainment rate can be well fitted by lognormal,more » gamma or Weibull distribution, with coefficients of determination being 0.82, 0.85 and 0.80, respectively. Entrainment tends to reduce temperature, water vapor content and moist static energy in cloud due to evaporative cooling and dilution. Inspection of the relationships between entrainment rate and microphysical properties reveals a negative correlation between volume-mean radius and entrainment rate, suggesting the potential dominance of homogeneous mechanism in the clouds examined. The entrainment rate and environmental water vapor content show similar tendencies of variation with the distance of the assumed environmental air to the cloud edges. Their variation tendencies are non-monotonic due to the relatively short distance between adjacent clouds.« less

An observational study of entrainment rate in deep convection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Xiaohao; Lu, Chunsong; Zhao, Tianliang

This study estimates entrainment rate and investigates its relationships with cloud properties in 156 deep convective clouds based on in-situ aircraft observations during the TOGA-COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment) field campaign over the western Pacific. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on the probability density function of entrainment rate, the relationships between entrainment rate and cloud microphysics, and the effects of dry air sources on the calculated entrainment rate in deep convection from an observational perspective. Results show that the probability density function of entrainment rate can be well fitted by lognormal,more » gamma or Weibull distribution, with coefficients of determination being 0.82, 0.85 and 0.80, respectively. Entrainment tends to reduce temperature, water vapor content and moist static energy in cloud due to evaporative cooling and dilution. Inspection of the relationships between entrainment rate and microphysical properties reveals a negative correlation between volume-mean radius and entrainment rate, suggesting the potential dominance of homogeneous mechanism in the clouds examined. The entrainment rate and environmental water vapor content show similar tendencies of variation with the distance of the assumed environmental air to the cloud edges. Their variation tendencies are non-monotonic due to the relatively short distance between adjacent clouds.« less

Beyond student ratings: peer observation of classroom and clinical teaching.

PubMed

Berk, Ronald A; Naumann, Phyllis L; Appling, Susan E

2004-01-01

Peer observation of classroom and clinical teaching has received increased attention over the past decade in schools of nursing to augment student ratings of teaching effectiveness. One essential ingredient is the scale used to evaluate performance. A five-step systematic procedure for adapting, writing, and building any peer observation scale is described. The differences between the development of a classroom observation scale and an appraisal scale to observe clinical instructors are examined. Psychometric issues peculiar to observation scales are discussed in terms of content validity, eight types of response bias, and interobserver reliability. The applications of the scales in one school of nursing as part of the triangulation of methods with student ratings and the teaching portfolio are illustrated. Copies of the scales are also provided.

Observation of inductive effects that cause a change in the rate-determining step for the conversion of rhenium azides to imido complexes.

PubMed

Travia, Nicholas E; Xu, Zhenggang; Keith, Jason M; Ison, Elon A; Fanwick, Phillip E; Hall, Michael B; Abu-Omar, Mahdi M

2011-10-17

The cationic oxorhenium(V) complex [Re(O)(hoz)(2)(CH(3)CN)][B(C(6)F(5))(4)] [1; Hhoz = 2-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)-2-oxazoline] reacts with aryl azides (N(3)Ar) to give cationic cis-rhenium(VII) oxoimido complexes of the general formula [Re(O)(NAr)(hoz)(2)][B(C(6)F(5))(4)] [2a-2f; Ar = 4-methoxyphenyl, 4-methylphenyl, phenyl, 3-methoxyphenyl, 4-chlorophenyl, and 4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]. The kinetics of formation of 2 in CH(3)CN are first-order in both azide (N(3)Ar) and oxorhenium(V) complex 1, with second-order rate constants ranging from 3.5 × 10(-2) to 1.7 × 10(-1) M(-1) s(-1). A strong inductive effect is observed for electron-withdrawing substituents, leading to a negative Hammett reaction constant ρ = -1.3. However, electron-donating substituents on phenyl azide deviate significantly from this trend. Enthalpic barriers (ΔH(‡)) determined by the Eyring-Polanyi equation are in the range 14-19 kcal mol(-1) for all aryl azides studied. However, electron-donating 4-methoxyphenyl azide exhibits a large negative entropy of activation, ΔS(‡) = -21 cal mol(-1) K(-1), which is in sharp contrast to the near zero ΔS(‡) observed for phenyl azide and 4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl azide. The Hammett linear free-energy relationship and the activation parameters support a change in the mechanism between electron-withdrawing and electron-donating aryl azides. Density functional theory predicts that the aryl azides coordinate via N(α) and extrude N(2) directly. For the electron-withdrawing substituents, N(2) extrusion is rate-determining, while for the electron-donating substituents, the rate-determining step becomes the initial attack of the azide. The barriers for these two steps are inverted in their order with respect to the Hammett σ values; thus, the Hammett plot appears with a break in its slope.

Rate of value change in Pennsylvania timber stands

Treesearch

Owen W. Herrick

1984-01-01

Data from remeasured Pennsylvania forest inventory plots revealed that during a 13-year period the compound rate of value change in uncut hardwood forest stands averaged 4.7 percent, and ranged from -5.5 to 18.8 percent. No well-defined means for predicting a stand's rate of value change could be identified, However, some measures of initial stand condition can be...

39 CFR 3010.23 - Calculation of percentage change in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... class of mail, the percentage change in rates is calculated in three steps. First, the volume of each... 39 Postal Service 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Calculation of percentage change in rates. 3010.23... DOMINANT PRODUCTS Rules for Applying the Price Cap § 3010.23 Calculation of percentage change in rates. (a...

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Dutch courage? Effects of acute alcohol consumption on self-ratings and observer ratings of foreign language skills.

PubMed

Renner, Fritz; Kersbergen, Inge; Field, Matt; Werthmann, Jessica

2018-01-01

A popular belief is that alcohol improves the ability to speak in a foreign language. The effect of acute alcohol consumption on perceived foreign language performance and actual foreign language performance in foreign language learners has not been investigated. The aim of the current study was to test the effects of acute alcohol consumption on self-rated and observer-rated verbal foreign language performance in participants who have recently learned this language. Fifty native German speakers who had recently learned Dutch were randomized to receive either a low dose of alcohol or a control beverage that contained no alcohol. Following the experimental manipulation, participants took part in a standardized discussion in Dutch with a blinded experimenter. The discussion was audio-recorded and foreign language skills were subsequently rated by two native Dutch speakers who were blind to the experimental condition (observer-rating). Participants also rated their own individual Dutch language skills during the discussion (self-rating). Participants who consumed alcohol had significantly better observer-ratings for their Dutch language, specifically better pronunciation, compared with those who did not consume alcohol. However, alcohol had no effect on self-ratings of Dutch language skills. Acute alcohol consumption may have beneficial effects on the pronunciation of a foreign language in people who have recently learned that language.

CHANGES IN HEART RATE VARIABILITY AND LUNG FUNCTION OBSERVED IN NC PATROL TROOPERS EXPOSED TO PM AND AIR TOXICS

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in Heart Rate Variability and Lung Function in NC Patrol Troopers exposed to PM and Air Toxics

Michael Riediker1, Wayne E Cascio1, Robert B Devlin2, Thomas Griggs1&4, Margaret Herbst1, Ronald W Williams3, Steve P McCorquodale4, Philip A Bromberg1
1) University o...

Multivariate analysis of longitudinal rates of change.

PubMed

Bryan, Matthew; Heagerty, Patrick J

2016-12-10

Longitudinal data allow direct comparison of the change in patient outcomes associated with treatment or exposure. Frequently, several longitudinal measures are collected that either reflect a common underlying health status, or characterize processes that are influenced in a similar way by covariates such as exposure or demographic characteristics. Statistical methods that can combine multivariate response variables into common measures of covariate effects have been proposed in the literature. Current methods for characterizing the relationship between covariates and the rate of change in multivariate outcomes are limited to select models. For example, 'accelerated time' methods have been developed which assume that covariates rescale time in longitudinal models for disease progression. In this manuscript, we detail an alternative multivariate model formulation that directly structures longitudinal rates of change and that permits a common covariate effect across multiple outcomes. We detail maximum likelihood estimation for a multivariate longitudinal mixed model. We show via asymptotic calculations the potential gain in power that may be achieved with a common analysis of multiple outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to the analysis of a trivariate outcome for infant growth and compare rates of change for HIV infected and uninfected infants. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

Space Observations for Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

Change in Population Characteristics and Teen Birth Rates in 77 Community Areas: Chicago, Illinois, 1999-2009.

PubMed

Gunaratne, Shauna; Masinter, Lisa; Kolak, Marynia; Feinglass, Joe

2015-01-01

We analyzed community area differences in teen births in Chicago, Illinois, from 1999 to 2009. We analyzed the association between changes in teen birth rates and concurrent measures of community area socioeconomic and demographic change. Mean annual changes in teen birth rates in 77 Chicago community areas were correlated with concurrent census-based population changes during the decade. Census measures included changes in race/ethnicity, adult high school dropouts, poverty or higher-income households, crowded housing, unemployment, English proficiency, foreign-born residents, or residents who moved in the last five years. We included non-collinear census measures with a p<0.1 bivariate association with change in teen births in a stepwise multiple linear regression model. Teen birth rates in Chicago fell faster than the overall birth rates, from 85 births per 1,000 teens in 1999 to 57 births per 1,000 teens in 2009. There were strong positive associations between increases in the percentage of residents who were black and Hispanic, poor, without a high school diploma, and living in crowded housing, and a negative association with an increase in higher-income households. Population changes in poverty, Hispanic population, and high school dropouts were the only significant measures in the final model, explaining almost half of the variance in teen birth rate changes. The study provides a model of census-based measures that can be used to evaluate predicted vs. observed rates of change in teen births across communities, offering the potential to more appropriately prioritize public health resources for preventing unintended teen pregnancy.

Occurrence rate of dipolarization fronts in the plasma sheet: Cluster observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Sudong; Zhang, Tielong; Wang, Guoqiang; Volwerk, Martin; Ge, Yasong; Schmid, Daniel; Nakamura, Rumi; Baumjohann, Wolfgang; Plaschke, Ferdinand

2017-08-01

We investigate the occurrence rate of dipolarization fronts (DFs) in the plasma sheet by taking full advantage of all four Cluster satellites (C1-4) from years 2001 to 2009. In total, we select 466 joint-observation DF events, in which 318, 282, 254, and 236 DFs are observed by C1, C2, C3, and C4, respectively. Our findings are as follows: (1) the maximum occurrence rate is ˜ 15.3 events per day at X ˜ 15 RE in the XY plane, and the average occurrence rate is ˜ 5.4 events per day over the whole observation period; (2) the occurrence rate on the dusk side of the plasma sheet is larger and decreases with increasing BXY/BLobe; (3) the occurrence rate within |Y| < 6 RE increases gradually from X ≈ -19 to -15 RE and then decreases from X ≈ -15 to -10 RE; (4) the occurrence rate when AE > 200 nT is much larger than that when AE < 200 nT, indicating that DFs preferentially occur during high geomagnetic activity. The magnetic pileup and earthward and duskward ion flows could contribute to the increases in the occurrence rate from X ≈ -19 to -15 RE. We suggest that both geomagnetic activity and multiple DFs contribute to the high occurrence rate of the DFs. In addition, the finite length of the DF in the dawn-dusk direction can affect the chance that a satellite observes the DF.

Change in decay rates of dioxin-like compounds in Yusho patients.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Shinya; Akahane, Manabu; Kanagawa, Yoshiyuki; Kajiwara, Jumboku; Mitoma, Chikage; Uchi, Hiroshi; Furue, Masutaka; Imamura, Tomoaki

2016-09-07

Once ingested, dioxins and dioxin-like compounds are excreted extremely slowly. Excretion can be evaluated by its half-life. Half-lives estimated from observed concentrations are affected by excretion and ongoing exposure. We investigated the change in apparent half-life using a theoretical model based on exposure to dioxin and dioxin-like compounds. We carried out longitudinal measurements of the blood concentration of dioxins and dioxin-like compounds in a Yusho cohort during 2002 to 2010. We estimated the change in decay rates of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and octachlorodibenzodioxin (OCDD) using a second-order equation. We found that the decay rate of OCDD increased, whereas the decay rate of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF of patients with a relatively high concentration of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF decreased. OCDD results were in accordance with decreasing levels of dioxin and dioxin-like compounds in the environment. The decay rate of OCDD in the body was affected by the decay rate of OCDD in the environment by ingestion because it was near the steady-state. In contrast, the decay rate of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF in the body was affected less by ingestion from the environment because it was far higher than in the steady-state. We demonstrated that the level of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF in the environment is decreasing. The excretion half-life is longer than the environmental half-life, thus the excretion half-life in a Yusho patient is increased.

Seismic rate changes associated with seasonal, annual, and decadal changes in the cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauber, J. M.; Luthcke, S. B.; Hall, D. K.

2012-12-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial Program (GFP) in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier GFP are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007 the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the elastic displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the

77 FR 39747 - Changes in Postal Rates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... with the Commission of a proposal characterized as a minor classification change under 39 CFR parts 3090 and 3091, along with a conforming revision to the Mail Classification Schedule (MCS).\\1\\ The... Flat Rate Envelope options. \\1\\ Notice of United States Postal Service of Classification Changes, June...

Changes in muscle activation patterns when running step rate is increased.

PubMed

Chumanov, Elizabeth S; Wille, Christa M; Michalski, Max P; Heiderscheit, Bryan C

2012-06-01

Running with a step rate 5-10% greater than one's preferred can substantially reduce lower extremity joint moments and powers, and has been suggested as a possible strategy to aid in running injury management. The purpose of this study was to examine how neuromuscular activity changes with an increase in step rate during running. Forty-five injury-free, recreational runners participated in this study. Three-dimensional motion, ground reaction forces, and electromyography (EMG) of 8 muscles (rectus femoris, vastus lateralis, medial gastrocnemius, tibialis anterior, medial and lateral hamstrings, and gluteus medius and maximus) were recorded as each subject ran at their preferred speed for three different step rate conditions: preferred, +5% and +10% of preferred. Outcome measures included mean normalized EMG activity for each muscle at specific periods during the gait cycle. Muscle activities were found to predominantly increase during late swing, with no significant change in activities during the loading response. This increased muscle activity in anticipation of foot-ground contact likely alters the landing posture of the limb and the subsequent negative work performed by the joints during stance phase. Further, the increased activity observed in the gluteus maximus and medius suggests running with a greater step rate may have therapeutic benefits to those with anterior knee pain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gravity measurements in southeastern Alaska reveal negative gravity rate of change caused by glacial isostatic adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.; Miura, S.; Sato, T.; Sugano, T.; Freymueller, J.; Kaufman, M.; Larsen, C. F.; Cross, R.; Inazu, D.

2010-12-01

For the past 300 years, southeastern Alaska has undergone rapid ice-melting and land uplift attributable to global warming. Corresponding crustal deformation (3 cm/yr) caused by the Little Ice Age retreat is detectable with modern geodetic techniques such as GPS and tidal gauge measurements. Geodetic deformation provides useful information for assessing ice-melting rates, global warming effects, and subcrustal viscosity. Nevertheless, integrated geodetic observations, including gravity measurements, are important. To detect crustal deformation caused by glacial isostatic adjustment and to elucidate the viscosity structure in southeastern Alaska, Japanese and U.S. researchers began a joint 3-year project in 2006 using GPS, Earth tide, and absolute gravity measurements. A new absolute gravity network was established, comprising five sites around Glacier Bay, near Juneau, Alaska. This paper reports the network's gravity measurements during 2006-2008. The bad ocean model in this area hindered ocean loading correction: Large tidal residuals remain in the observations. Accurate tidal correction necessitated on-site tidal observation. Results show high observation precision for all five stations: <1 μGal. The gravity rate of change was found to be -3.5 to -5.6 μGal/yr in the gravity network. Furthermore, gravity results obtained during the 3 years indicate a similar gravity change rate. These gravity data are anticipated for application in geophysical studies of southeastern Alaska. Using gravity and vertical displacement data, we constructed a quantity to remove viscoelastic effects. The observations are thus useful to constrain present-day ice thickness changes. A gravity bias of about -13.2 ± 0.1 mGal exists between the Potsdam and current FG5 gravity data.

Human sensitivity to differences in the rate of auditory cue change.

PubMed

Maloff, Erin S; Grantham, D Wesley; Ashmead, Daniel H

2013-05-01

Measurement of sensitivity to differences in the rate of change of auditory signal parameters is complicated by confounds among duration, extent, and velocity of the changing signal. Dooley and Moore [(1988) J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 84(4), 1332-1337] proposed a method for measuring sensitivity to rate of change using a duration discrimination task. They reported improved duration discrimination when an additional intensity or frequency change cue was present. The current experiments were an attempt to use this method to measure sensitivity to the rate of change in intensity and spatial position. Experiment 1 investigated whether duration discrimination was enhanced when additional cues of rate of intensity change, rate of spatial position change, or both were provided. Experiment 2 determined whether participant listening experience or the testing environment influenced duration discrimination task performance. Experiment 3 assessed whether duration discrimination could be used to measure sensitivity to rates of changes in intensity and spatial position for stimuli with lower rates of change, as well as emphasizing the constancy of the velocity cue. Results of these experiments showed that duration discrimination was impaired rather than enhanced by the additional velocity cues. The findings are discussed in terms of the demands of listening to concurrent changes along multiple auditory dimensions.

47 CFR 76.1606 - Rate change while complaint pending.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rate change while complaint pending. 76.1606 Section 76.1606 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1606 Rate change while complaint pending. A...

Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

75 FR 51504 - Changes in Postal Rates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-20

... INFORMATION CONTACT: Stephen L. Sharfman, General Counsel, [email protected] or 202-789-6820... rates took effect on January 1, 2009. In Order No. 281, the Commission accepted the change in rates not... Expedited Services 2, August 19, 2009 (Order No. 281). \\4\\ See Docket No. CP2009-57, Response of the United...

Modeling of Firn Compaction for Estimating Ice-Sheet Mass Change from Observed Ice-Sheet Elevation Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jun; Zwally, H. Jay

2011-01-01

Changes in ice-sheet surface elevation are caused by a combination of ice-dynamic imbalance, ablation, temporal variations in accumulation rate, firn compaction and underlying bedrock motion. Thus, deriving the rate of ice-sheet mass change from measured surface elevation change requires information on the rate of firn compaction and bedrock motion, which do not involve changes in mass, and requires an appropriate firn density to associate with elevation changes induced by recent accumulation rate variability. We use a 25 year record of surface temperature and a parameterization for accumulation change as a function of temperature to drive a firn compaction model. We apply this formulation to ICESat measurements of surface elevation change at three locations on the Greenland ice sheet in order to separate the accumulation-driven changes from the ice-dynamic/ablation-driven changes, and thus to derive the corresponding mass change. Our calculated densities for the accumulation-driven changes range from 410 to 610 kg/cu m, which along with 900 kg/cu m for the dynamic/ablation-driven changes gives average densities ranging from 680 to 790 kg/cu m. We show that using an average (or "effective") density to convert elevation change to mass change is not valid where the accumulation and the dynamic elevation changes are of opposite sign.

Rate of Change in Renal Function and Mortality in Elderly Treated Hypertensive Patients

PubMed Central

Langham, Robyn G.; Ademi, Zanfina; Owen, Alice; Krum, Henry; Wing, Lindon M.H.; Nelson, Mark R.; Reid, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Evidence relating the rate of change in renal function, measured as eGFR, after antihypertensive treatment in elderly patients to clinical outcome is sparse. This study characterized the rate of change in eGFR after commencement of antihypertensive treatment in an elderly population, the factors associated with eGFR rate change, and the rate’s association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study were used, where 6083 hypertensive participants aged ≥65 years were enrolled during 1995–1997 and followed for a median of 4.1 years (in-trial). Following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study, participants were followed-up for a further median 6.9 years (post-trial). The annual rate of change in the eGFR was calculated in 4940 participants using creatinine measurements during the in-trial period and classified into quintiles (Q) on the basis of the following eGFR changes: rapid decline (Q1), decline (Q2), stable (Q3), increase (Q4), and rapid increase (Q5). Results A rapid decline in eGFR in comparison with those with stable eGFRs during the in-trial period was associated with older age, living in a rural area, wider pulse pressure at baseline, receiving diuretic-based therapy, taking multiple antihypertensive drugs, and having blood pressure <140/90 mmHg during the study. However, a rapid increase in eGFR was observed in younger women and those with a higher cholesterol level. After adjustment for baseline and in-trial covariates, Cox-proportional hazard models showed a significantly greater risk for both all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.52; P=0.003) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.76; P=0.004) mortality in the rapid decline group compared with the stable group over a median of 7.2 years after the last eGFR measure. No significant association

Multivariate Analysis of Longitudinal Rates of Change

PubMed Central

Bryan, Matthew; Heagerty, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

Longitudinal data allow direct comparison of the change in patient outcomes associated with treatment or exposure. Frequently, several longitudinal measures are collected that either reflect a common underlying health status, or characterize processes that are influenced in a similar way by covariates such as exposure or demographic characteristics. Statistical methods that can combine multivariate response variables into common measures of covariate effects have been proposed by Roy and Lin [1]; Proust-Lima, Letenneur and Jacqmin-Gadda [2]; and Gray and Brookmeyer [3] among others. Current methods for characterizing the relationship between covariates and the rate of change in multivariate outcomes are limited to select models. For example, Gray and Brookmeyer [3] introduce an “accelerated time” method which assumes that covariates rescale time in longitudinal models for disease progression. In this manuscript we detail an alternative multivariate model formulation that directly structures longitudinal rates of change, and that permits a common covariate effect across multiple outcomes. We detail maximum likelihood estimation for a multivariate longitudinal mixed model. We show via asymptotic calculations the potential gain in power that may be achieved with a common analysis of multiple outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to the analysis of a trivariate outcome for infant growth and compare rates of change for HIV infected and uninfected infants. PMID:27417129

Observation of Repetition-Rate Dependent Emission From an Un-Gated Thermionic Cathode Rf Gun

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edelen, J. P.; Sun, Y.; Harris, J.R.

Recent work at Fermilab in collaboration with the Advanced Photon Source and members of other national labs, designed an experiment to study the relationship between the RF repetition rate and the average current per RF pulse. While existing models anticipate a direct relationship between these two parameters we observed an inverse relationship. We believe this is a result of damage to the barium coating on the cathode surface caused by a change in back-bombardment power that is unaccounted for in the existing theories. These observations shed new light on the challenges and fundamental limitations associated with scaling an ungated thermionicmore » cathode RF gun to high average current.« less

OBSERVATION OF REPETITION-RATE DEPENDANT EMISSION FROM AN UN-GATED THERMIONIC CATHODE RF GUN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edelen, J. P.; Sun, Y.; Harris, J. R.

Recent work at Fermilab in collaboration with the Advanced Photon Source and members of other national labs, designed an experiment to study the relationship between the RF repetition rate and the average current per RF pulse. While existing models anticipate a direct relationship between these two parameters we observed an inverse relationship. We believe this is a result of damage to the barium coating on the cathode surface caused by a change in back-bombardment power that is unaccounted for in the existing theories. These observations shed new light on the challenges and fundamental limitations associated with scaling an ungated thermionicmore » cathode RF gun to high average current machines.« less

Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

PubMed

Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

2010-12-01

Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of <33%. Using this method, overestimation of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

75 FR 69143 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

...This document addresses a recently-filed Postal Service request for three postal rate and classification changes. One change will affect certain senders of First-Class Mail Presort and Automation Letters. Another change will affect Standard Mail and High Density milers. The third change affects the Move Update Charge threshold. This document provides details about the anticipated changes and addresses procedural steps associated with this filing.

Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-01-01

Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

Changes in heart rate variability during the induction and decay of heat acclimation.

PubMed

Flouris, Andreas D; Poirier, Martin P; Bravi, Andrea; Wright-Beatty, Heather E; Herry, Christophe; Seely, Andrew J; Kenny, Glen P

2014-10-01

We evaluated the changes in core temperature, heart rate, and heart rate variability (HRV) during the induction and decay of heat acclimation. Ten males (23 ± 3 years; 79.5 ± 3.5 kg; 15.2 ± 4.5 percent body fat; 51.13 ± 4.61 mLO(2)∙kg(-1)∙min(-1) peak oxygen uptake) underwent a 14-day heat acclimation protocol comprising of 90-min cycling at ~50 % peak oxygen uptake at 40 °C and ~20 % relative humidity. Core temperature, heart rate, and 102 HRV measures were recorded during a heat tolerance test conducted at baseline (day 0) and at the end of the induction (day 14) and decay (day 28) phases. Heat acclimation resulted in significantly reduced core temperature [rectal (χ (2) = 1298.14, p < 0.001); esophageal (χ (2) = 1069.88, p < 0.001)] and heart rate (χ (2) = 1230.17, p < 0.001). Following the decay phase, 26, 40, and 60 % of the heat acclimation-induced reductions in rectal temperature, esophageal temperature, and heart rate, respectively, were lost. Heat acclimation was accompanied by profound and broad changes in HRV: at the end of the induction phase, 75 of the 102 variability measures computed were significantly different (p < 0.001), compared to only 47 of the 102 at the end of the decay phase. Heat acclimation is accompanied by reduced core temperature, significant bradycardia, and marked alterations in HRV, which we interpret as being related to vagal dominance. The observed changes in core temperature persist for at least 2 weeks of non-exposure to heat, while the changes in heart rate and HRV decay faster and are only partly evident after 2 weeks of non-exposure to heat.

Handgun Legislation and Changes in Statewide Overall Suicide Rates.

PubMed

Anestis, Michael D; Anestis, Joye C; Butterworth, Sarah E

2017-04-01

To examine the extent to which 4 laws regulating handgun ownership were associated with statewide suicide rate changes. To test between-group differences in statewide suicide rate changes between 2013 and 2014 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia with and without specific laws, we ran analyses of covariance. We found significant differences in suicide rate changes from 2013 to 2014 in states with mandatory waiting periods and universal background checks relative to states without such laws. States with both laws differed significantly from those with neither. No significant differences in rate changes were noted for open carry restrictions or gun lock requirements. Some state laws regulating aspects of handgun acquisition may be associated with lower statewide suicide rates. Laws regulating handgun storage and carrying practices may have a smaller effect, highlighting that legislation is likely most useful when its focus is on preventing gun ownership rather than regulating use and storage of guns already acquired. Public Health Implications. The findings add to the increasing evidence in support of a public health approach to the prevention of suicide via firearms, focusing on waiting periods and background checks.

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne

2012-01-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography

Patterns and Rates of Historical Shoreline Change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratzmann, M. G.; Hapke, C. J.; Himmelstoss, E. A.; List, J. H.; Thieler, E. R.

2010-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing historical shoreline changes along open-ocean shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska and the Great Lakes to calculate trends and rates of shoreline movement. This accurate and detailed coastal change information is necessary as growing coastal communities and infrastructure are threatened by erosion. Repeatable analytical methods were developed for shoreline movement calculations to facilitate periodic updates of coastal change in a systematic and internally consistent manner. The U.S. New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts from Maine to Virginia are the most recent to be completed in the National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Shorelines from the 1800s through 2007 were derived from historical maps, orthophotos, and airborne lidar (1997-2007). All shoreline change rates are calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Long-term rates of change are calculated using linear regression through all available shorelines (n = 4 to 12) for the full period of record (100-150 years). Short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent 25-30 years, using the end-point method. Shoreline change rates were calculated for 78% of the 1360 km of coast in the study area. Complete coverage is lacking due to data gaps, as well as locations (rocky coastlines, large embayments, and beaches) where robust data are unavailable. The average rates of shoreline change for New England and the Mid-Atlantic are erosional, with higher erosion rates observed in the long-term than in the short-term. The average rates of long- and short-term shoreline change in New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island) are -0.4 m/yr ± 0.1 m/yr and -0.2 ± 0.09 m/yr, respectively. The average long-term rate in the Mid-Atlantic (New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia) is -0.6 ± 0.1 m/yr and the short-term rate of change is -0.3 ± 0.1 m

Paraquat prohibition and change in the suicide rate and methods in South Korea.

PubMed

Myung, Woojae; Lee, Geung-Hee; Won, Hong-Hee; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Nyer, Maren; Kim, Doh Kwan; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Jeon, Hong Jin

2015-01-01

The annual suicide rate in South Korea is the highest among the developed countries. Paraquat is a highly lethal herbicide, commonly used in South Korea as a means for suicide. We have studied the effect of the 2011 paraquat prohibition on the national suicide rate and method of suicide in South Korea. We obtained the monthly suicide rate from 2005 to 2013 in South Korea. In our analyses, we adjusted for the effects of celebrity suicides, and economic, meteorological, and seasonal factors on suicide rate. We employed change point analysis to determine the effect of paraquat prohibition on suicide rate over time, and the results were verified by structural change analysis, an alternative statistical method. After the paraquat prohibition period in South Korea, there was a significant reduction in the total suicide rate and suicide rate by poisoning with herbicides or fungicides in all age groups and in both genders. The estimated suicide rates during this period decreased by 10.0% and 46.1% for total suicides and suicides by poisoning of herbicides or fungicides, respectively. In addition, method substitution effect of paraquat prohibition was found in suicide by poisoning by carbon monoxide, which did not exceed the reduction in the suicide rate of poisoning with herbicides or fungicides. In South Korea, paraquat prohibition led to a lower rate of suicide by paraquat poisoning, as well as a reduction in the overall suicide rate. Paraquat prohibition should be considered as a national suicide prevention strategy in developing and developed countries alongside careful observation for method substitution effects.

7 CFR 3575.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 3575.80..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.80 Interest rate changes after...) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on the guaranteed loan at any time...

7 CFR 1779.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 1779.80....80 Interest rate changes after loan closing. (a) General. Subject to the restrictions below, the borrower, lender, and holder (if any) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on...

Rating a Teacher Observation Tool: Five Ways to Ensure Classroom Observations are Focused and Rigorous

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Teacher Project, 2011

2011-01-01

This "Rating a Teacher Observation Tool" identifies five simple questions and provides an easy-to-use scorecard to help policymakers decide whether an observation framework is likely to produce fair and accurate results. The five questions are: (1) Do the criteria and tools cover the classroom performance areas most connected to student outcomes?…

Change in Population Characteristics and Teen Birth Rates in 77 Community Areas: Chicago, Illinois, 1999–2009

PubMed Central

Gunaratne, Shauna; Masinter, Lisa; Kolak, Marynia

2015-01-01

Objective We analyzed community area differences in teen births in Chicago, Illinois, from 1999 to 2009. We analyzed the association between changes in teen birth rates and concurrent measures of community area socioeconomic and demographic change. Methods Mean annual changes in teen birth rates in 77 Chicago community areas were correlated with concurrent census-based population changes during the decade. Census measures included changes in race/ethnicity, adult high school dropouts, poverty or higher-income households, crowded housing, unemployment, English proficiency, foreign-born residents, or residents who moved in the last five years. We included non-collinear census measures with a p<0.1 bivariate association with change in teen births in a stepwise multiple linear regression model. Results Teen birth rates in Chicago fell faster than the overall birth rates, from 85 births per 1,000 teens in 1999 to 57 births per 1,000 teens in 2009. There were strong positive associations between increases in the percentage of residents who were black and Hispanic, poor, without a high school diploma, and living in crowded housing, and a negative association with an increase in higher-income households. Population changes in poverty, Hispanic population, and high school dropouts were the only significant measures in the final model, explaining almost half of the variance in teen birth rate changes. Conclusion The study provides a model of census-based measures that can be used to evaluate predicted vs. observed rates of change in teen births across communities, offering the potential to more appropriately prioritize public health resources for preventing unintended teen pregnancy. PMID:26345288

Resistance to Change and Relapse of Observing

PubMed Central

Thrailkill, Eric A; Shahan, Timothy A

2012-01-01

Four experiments examined relapse of extinguished observing behavior of pigeons using a two-component multiple schedule of observing-response procedures. In both components, unsignaled periods of variable-interval (VI) food reinforcement alternated with extinction and observing responses produced stimuli associated with the availability of the VI schedule (i.e., S+). The components differed in the rate of food arranged (Rich  = VI 30 s; Lean  =  VI 120 s). In Experiment 1, following baseline training, extinction of observing involved removal of both food and S+ deliveries, and reinstatement was examined by presenting either response-independent food or S+ deliveries. In Experiment 2, extinction involved removal of only food deliveries while observing responses continued to produce S+. Reinstatement was examined by delivering food contingent upon the first two food-key responses occurring in the presence of the S+. Experiment 3 assessed ABA renewal of observing by extinguishing food-key and observing responses in the presence of one contextual stimulus (i.e., B) and then returning to the original training context (i.e., A) during continued extinction. Experiment 4 examined resurgence by introducing food reinforcement for an alternative response during extinction, and subsequently removing that alternative source of food. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse of observing tended to be greater in the component previously associated with the higher rate of primary reinforcement. Relapse of observing or attending to stimuli associated with primary reinforcement appears to be impacted by frequency of primary reinforcement in a manner similar to responding maintained directly by primary reinforcement. PMID:22693359

Seismic velocity change and slip rate during the 2006 Guerrero (Mexico) slow slip event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivet, Diane; Radiguet, Mathilde; Campillo, Michel; Cotton, Fabrice; Shapiro, Nikolai; Krishna Singh, Shri; Kostoglodov, Vladimir

2010-05-01

We measure temporal change of the seismic velocity in the crust below the Guerrero region during the 2006 slow sleep event (SSE). We use repeated cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise recorded at 26 broad-band stations of the MesoAmerica Seismic Experiment (MASE). The cross-correlations are computed over 90 days with a moving window of 10 days from January 2005 to July 2007. To insure measurements independent of noise source variations, we only take into account the travel time change within the coda. For period of 8 to 20s, we observe a decrease in velocity starting in April 2006 with a maximum change of -0.3% of the initial velocity in June 2006. At these periods, the Rayleigh waves are sensitive to velocity changes down to the lower crust. In the other hand, we compute the deformation rate below the MASE array from a slip propagation model of the SSE observed by means of the displacement time-series of 15 continuous GPS stations. Slip initiates in the western part of the Guerrero Gap and propagates southeastward. The propagation velocity is of the order of 1 km/day. We then compare the seismic velocity change measured from continuous seismological data with the deformation rate inferred from geodetic measurements below the MASE array. We obtain a good agreement between the time of maximal seismic velocity change (July 2006) and the time of maximum deformation associated with the SSE (July to August 2006). This result shows that the long-term velocity change associated with the SSE can be detected using continuous seismic recordings. Since the SSE does not emit seismic waves, which interact with the superficial layers, the result indicates that the velocity change is due to deformation at depth.

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

PubMed

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Turbulent Reconnection Rates from Cluster Observations in the Magnetosheath

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wendel, Deirdre

2011-01-01

The role of turbulence in producing fast reconnection rates is an important unresolved question. Scant in situ analyses exist. We apply multiple spacecraft techniques to a case of nonlinear turbulent reconnection in the magnetosheath to test various theoretical results for turbulent reconnection rates. To date, in situ estimates of the contribution of turbulence to reconnection rates have been calculated from an effective electric field derived through linear wave theory. However, estimates of reconnection rates based on fully nonlinear turbulence theories and simulations exist that are amenable to multiple spacecraft analyses. Here we present the linear and nonlinear theories and apply some of the nonlinear rates to Cluster observations of reconnecting, turbulent current sheets in the magnetosheath. We compare the results to the net reconnection rate found from the inflow speed. Ultimately, we intend to test and compare linear and nonlinear estimates of the turbulent contribution to reconnection rates and to measure the relative contributions of turbulence and the Hall effect.

Permeability Changes Observed in the Arbuckle Group Coincident with Nearby Earthquake Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Cochran, E. S.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Murray, K.

2017-12-01

We investigate the temporal evolution of hydrologic properties of the 2 km deep Arbuckle Group, the principal target in Oklahoma for saltwater disposal resulting from oil and gas production. Specifically, we look for changes to the hydrologic system associated with local earthquakes at two monitoring wells (Payne07 and 08) near Cushing, Oklahoma. The wells were instrumented with pressure transducers starting in Aug. 2016, after injection was discontinued due to regulatory directives. The observation period includes the 3 Sep 2016 Mw5.8 Pawnee and 7 Nov. 2016 Mw5.0 Cushing earthquakes located 50 km and 5 km from the wells, respectively. Previous studies have suggested the Mw5.8 Pawnee earthquake affected both the shallow and deep hydrological systems, with an increase in stream discharge observed near the mainshock (Manga et al., 2016) and a change in poroelastic properties of the Arbuckle inferred from the observed co-seismic water level offsets observed at Payne 07 and 08 (Kroll et al., 2017). Here, we use the water level response to solid Earth tides to estimate permeability and specific storage through time during the observation period. We measure the phase lag between the solid Earth tide and the water level changes and find that phase lag between the Earth tide and aquifer response decreases at the time of the Mw5.0 Cushing earthquake in both wells. Our results suggest permeability increased in the Arbuckle Group after the earthquake by a factor of 5. It is possible that in extreme cases there may be complex interaction between saltwater disposal, hydrologic systems, and earthquake rates that should be considered to better understand seismic hazard.

Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Chief Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Liz; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettle, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Chief Vyacheslav;

Physiological changes associated with routine nursing procedures in critically ill are common: an observational pilot study.

PubMed

Engström, J; Bruno, E; Reinius, H; Fröjd, C; Jonsson, H; Sannervik, J; Larsson, A

2017-01-01

Nursing procedures that are routinely performed in the intensive care unit (ICU) are assumed to have minimal side effects. However, these procedures may sometimes cause physiological changes that negatively affect the patient. We hypothesized that physiological changes associated with routine nursing procedures in the ICU are common. A clinical observational study of 16 critically ill patients in a nine-bed mixed university hospital ICU. All nursing procedures were observed, and physiological data were collected and subsequently analyzed. Minor physiological changes were defined as minimal changes in respiratory or circulatory variables, and major physiological changes were marked as hyper/hypotension, bradycardia/tachycardia, bradypnea/tachypnea, ventilatory distress, and peripheral blood oxygen desaturation. In the 16 patients, 668 procedures generated 158 major and 692 minor physiological changes during 187 observational hours. The most common procedure was patient position change, which also generated the majority of the physiological changes. The most common major physiological changes were blood oxygen desaturation, ventilatory distress, and hypotension, and the most common minor changes were arterial pressure alteration, coughing, and increase in respiratory rate. In this pilot study, we examined physiological changes in connection with all regular routine nursing procedures in the ICU. We found that physiological changes were common and sometimes severe. © 2016 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving coordination and integration of observations of Arctic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, Donald; Payne, John; Eicken, Hajo

2012-10-01

U.S. Arctic Observing Coordination Workshop;Anchorage, Alaska, 20-22 March 2012 The Arctic is undergoing tremendous changes. Permafrost is thawing, ice sheets are melting, and sea ice is thinning and retreating. These changes are impacting ecosystems and human activities. Observing, understanding, and responding to these changes are the central themes of the U.S. Interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH, http://www.arcus.org/search/index.php). SEARCH brings together academic and government agency scientists and stakeholders to prioritize, plan, conduct, and synthesize research focused on Arctic environmental change. The U.S. Arctic Observing Coordination Workshop (http://www.arcus.org/search/meetings/2012/coordination-workshop/) focused on two key themes for cross-disciplinary and cross-agency collaboration: (1) understanding and predicting sea ice changes and their consequences for ecosystems, human activities, and climate and (2) determining consequences of loss and warming of shallow permafrost on Arctic and global systems.

Influence of transvaginal ultrasound-guided follicular punctures in the mare on heart rate, respiratory rate, facial expression changes, and salivary cortisol as pain scoring.

PubMed

Diego, Rodrigo; Douet, Cécile; Reigner, Fabrice; Blard, Thierry; Cognié, Juliette; Deleuze, Stefan; Goudet, Ghylène

2016-10-15

Transvaginal ultrasound-guided follicular punctures are widely used in the mare for diagnosis, research, and commercial applications. The objective of our study was to determine their influence on pain, stress, and well-being in the mare, by evaluating heart rate, breath rate, facial expression changes, and salivary cortisol before, during, and after puncture. For this experiment, 21 pony mares were used. Transvaginal ultrasound-guided aspirations were performed on 11 mares. After injections for sedation, analgesia, and antispasmodia, the follicles from both ovaries were aspirated with a needle introduced through the vagina wall into the ovary. In the control group, 10 mares underwent similar treatments and injections, but no follicular aspiration. Along the session, heart rate and breath rate were evaluated by a trained veterinarian, ears position, eyelid closure, and contraction of facial muscles were evaluated, and salivary samples were taken for evaluation of cortisol concentration. A significant relaxation was observed after sedative injection in the punctured and control mares, according to ear position, eyelid closure, and contraction of facial muscles, but no difference between punctured and control animals was recorded. No significant modification of salivary cortisol concentration during puncture and no difference between punctured and control mares at any time were observed. No significant modification of the breath rate was observed along the procedure for the punctured and the control mares. Heart rate increased significantly but transiently when the needle was introduced in the ovary and was significantly higher at that time for the punctured mares than that for control mares. None of the other investigated parameters were affected at that time, suggesting discomfort is minimal and transient. Improving analgesia, e.g., through a multimodal approach, during that possibly more sensitive step could be recommended. The evaluation of facial expression

An intervention to improve the catheter associated urinary tract infection rate in a medical intensive care unit: Direct observation of catheter insertion procedure.

PubMed

Galiczewski, Janet M; Shurpin, Kathleen M

2017-06-01

Healthcare associated infections from indwelling urinary catheters lead to increased patient morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine if direct observation of the urinary catheter insertion procedure, as compared to the standard process, decreased catheter utilization and urinary tract infection rates. This case control study was conducted in a medical intensive care unit. During phase I, a retrospective data review was conducted on utilsiation and urinary catheter infection rates when practitioners followed the institution's standard insertion algorithm. During phase II, an intervention of direct observation was added to the standard insertion procedure. The results demonstrated no change in utilization rates, however, CAUTI rates decreased from 2.24 to 0 per 1000 catheter days. The findings from this study may promote changes in clinical practice guidelines leading to a reduction in urinary catheter utilization and infection rates and improved patient outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable input observer for structural health monitoring of high-rate systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Cao, Liang; Dodson, Jacob

2017-02-01

The development of high-rate structural health monitoring methods is intended to provide damage detection on timescales of 10 µs -10ms where speed of detection is critical to maintain structural integrity. Here, a novel Variable Input Observer (VIO) coupled with an adaptive observer is proposed as a potential solution for complex high-rate problems. The VIO is designed to adapt its input space based on real-time identification of the system's essential dynamics. By selecting appropriate time-delayed coordinates defined by both a time delay and an embedding dimension, the proper input space is chosen which allows more accurate estimations of the current state and a reduction of the convergence rate. The optimal time-delay is estimated based on mutual information, and the embedding dimension is based on false nearest neighbors. A simulation of the VIO is conducted on a two degree-of-freedom system with simulated damage. Results are compared with an adaptive Luenberger observer, a fixed time-delay observer, and a Kalman Filter. Under its preliminary design, the VIO converges significantly faster than the Luenberger and fixed observer. It performed similarly to the Kalman Filter in terms of convergence, but with greater accuracy.

Changes in the age pattern of New Zealand suicide rates.

PubMed

Snowdon, John

2017-01-13

It is timely to examine changes in male and female suicide rates across the age range in New Zealand, comparing them to some of the changes recorded in Australia. Data regarding suicide and population figures in New Zealand and Australia were obtained. The suicide rates of different age-groups in the two countries were calculated and compared. Data concerning 'open verdicts' were also obtained. The age patterns of suicide rates in New Zealand and Australia have changed markedly and similarly. Suicide rates of New Zealand males in their twenties increased threefold between the 1960s and 1990s, with a fall since then. Nevertheless, the 2009-13 youth suicide rates in New Zealand were double the corresponding rates in Australia. Since 1979-88 a decrease in suicide rates of men and women aged 60-79 has been even greater than in Australia. The Māori suicide rate is high in young men but almost zero in old age. The persistently high suicide rate of New Zealand youths (Māori much more than non-Māori) remains of concern. The rate is equally high among indigenous young Australians. There has been a welcome decrease in late-life suicide rates in New Zealand and Australia.

Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in <2° scenarios expands, on average, by 8.2 Mha yr-1 and 11.7% p.a. across scenarios. This rate exceeds, by more than 3-fold, the observed expansion of soybean, the most rapidly expanding commodity crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

Extracting rate changes in transcriptional regulation from MEDLINE abstracts.

PubMed

Liu, Wenting; Miao, Kui; Li, Guangxia; Chang, Kuiyu; Zheng, Jie; Rajapakse, Jagath C

2014-01-01

Time delays are important factors that are often neglected in gene regulatory network (GRN) inference models. Validating time delays from knowledge bases is a challenge since the vast majority of biological databases do not record temporal information of gene regulations. Biological knowledge and facts on gene regulations are typically extracted from bio-literature with specialized methods that depend on the regulation task. In this paper, we mine evidences for time delays related to the transcriptional regulation of yeast from the PubMed abstracts. Since the vast majority of abstracts lack quantitative time information, we can only collect qualitative evidences of time delays. Specifically, the speed-up or delay in transcriptional regulation rate can provide evidences for time delays (shorter or longer) in GRN. Thus, we focus on deriving events related to rate changes in transcriptional regulation. A corpus of yeast regulation related abstracts was manually labeled with such events. In order to capture these events automatically, we create an ontology of sub-processes that are likely to result in transcription rate changes by combining textual patterns and biological knowledge. We also propose effective feature extraction methods based on the created ontology to identify the direct evidences with specific details of these events. Our ontologies outperform existing state-of-the-art gene regulation ontologies in the automatic rule learning method applied to our corpus. The proposed deterministic ontology rule-based method can achieve comparable performance to the automatic rule learning method based on decision trees. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our ontology in identifying rate-changing events. We also tested the effectiveness of the proposed feature mining methods on detecting direct evidence of events. Experimental results show that the machine learning method on these features achieves an F1-score of 71.43%. The manually labeled corpus of events

Modulation of erosion rates of uplifting landscapes by long-term climate change: Experimental investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

2017-04-01

Whether climatic variations play a major role, or not, in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is key for demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts, as expected from analytical, numerical and analog modelling approaches. These models actually demonstrate that any modification in surface erosion rate that would affect significantly the gravitational loading of the continental crust might change its state of stress and consequently its deformation. However field evidences of these interactions has proved challenging to demonstrate unambiguously, the question of the climatic control on erosion efficiency at the geological time-scale being among the most critical issues. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of a landscape on the basis of an experimental approach where we surveyed the erosion by runoff of water of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under the combination of uplift and rainfall forcings (e.g. Bonnet and Crave, 2006). The experimental facility used is a modified of a device initially developed in the Geosciences Rennes laboratory and now set up in the Geosciences Environnement Toulouse laboratory. Following early experiments of Bonnet and Crave (2003) where the effect of a sudden drop in precipitation was investigated, we consider here the impact of decreasing rainfall events of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift (10 mm/h) and initially at steady-state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude (from 160 to 60mm/h) but with different duration of rainfall drop (Tp: 0, 60, 300, 500, 700 min). As predicted theoretically and already observed in numerical and experimental modelling studies, a sudden drop of precipitation rate (Tp=0) induced a decrease of the mean erosion rate of the landscape (E), resulting in surface uplift. Then, landscape mean elevation stabilized to a higher value

Fire-danger rating and observed wildfire behavior in the Northeastern United States.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Albert J. Simard

1986-01-01

Compares the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System and its 20 fuel models, along with other danger rating systems, with observed fire behavior and rates the strengths and weaknesses of models and systems.

The Relationship between Assessor/Assessee Gender and Performance Observation Ratings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuyten, Shana; Tashakkori, Abbas

The effects of the genders of the assessor and the assessee on performance observation ratings of beginning teachers were studied in public schools in Louisiana. Data was collected in the pilot phase of the Louisiana Teacher Assessment Program for Interns, which included both teacher observation and structured interview. Of the assessees who…

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Ice shelf basal melt rates around Antarctica from simulations and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schodlok, M. P.; Menemenlis, D.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-02-01

We introduce an explicit representation of Antarctic ice shelf cavities in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) ocean retrospective analysis; and compare resulting basal melt rates and patterns to independent estimates from satellite observations. Two simulations are carried out: the first is based on the original ECCO2 vertical discretization; the second has higher vertical resolution particularly at the depth range of ice shelf cavities. The original ECCO2 vertical discretization produces higher than observed melt rates and leads to a misrepresentation of Southern Ocean water mass properties and transports. In general, thicker levels at the base of the ice shelves lead to increased melting because of their larger heat capacity. This strengthens horizontal gradients and circulation within and outside the cavities and, in turn, warm water transports from the shelf break to the ice shelves. The simulation with more vertical levels produces basal melt rates (1735 ± 164 Gt/a) and patterns that are in better agreement with observations. Thinner levels in the sub-ice-shelf cavities improve the representation of a fresh/cold layer at the ice shelf base and of warm/salty water near the bottom, leading to a sharper pycnocline and reduced vertical mixing underneath the ice shelf. Improved water column properties lead to more accurate melt rates and patterns, especially for melt/freeze patterns under large cold-water ice shelves. At the 18 km grid spacing of the ECCO2 model configuration, the smaller, warm-water ice shelves cannot be properly represented, with higher than observed melt rates in both simulations.

Charged particle space weathering rates at the Moon derived from ARTEMIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppe, A. R.; Farrell, W. M.; Halekas, J. S.

2017-12-01

The weathering of airless bodies exposed to space is a fundamental process in the formation and evolution of planetary surfaces. At the Moon, space weathering induces a variety of physical, chemical, and optical changes including the formation of nanometer sized amorphous rims on individual lunar grains. These rims are formed by vapor redeposition from micrometeoroid impacts and ion irradiation-induced amorphization of the crystalline matrix. For ion irradiation-induced rims, however, laboratory experiments of the depth and formation timescales of these rims stand in stark disagreement with observations of lunar soil grains. We use observations by the ARTEMIS spacecraft in orbit around the Moon to compute the mean ion flux to the lunar surface and convolve this flux with ion irradiation-induced vacancy production rates calculated using the Stopping Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) model. From this, we calculate the formation timescales for amorphous rim production as a function of depth and compare to laboratory experiments and observations of lunar soil. Our analysis resolves two outstanding issues: (1) the provenance of >100 nm amorphous rims on lunar grains and (2) the nature of the depth-age relationship for amorphous rims on lunar grains. We also present the hypothesis that ion beam-induced epitaxial crystallization is responsible for the discrepancy between observational and experimental results of the formation time of <100 nm amorphous rims.

An Actor-Oriented Transfer Perspective on High School Students' Development of the Use of Procedures to Solve Problems on Rate of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roorda, Gerrit; Vos, Pauline; Goedhart, Martin J.

2015-01-01

This article reports on a longitudinal observation study about students' development in their use of procedures to calculate instantaneous rate of change. Different procedures for solving tasks on rate of change are taught in mathematics and physics classes, and together they form a repertoire. Our study took an actor-oriented perspective, which…

Comparisons of monthly mean cosmic ray counting rates observes from worldwide network of neutron monitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryu, J. Y.; Wada, M.

1985-01-01

In order to examine the stability of neutron monitor observation, each of the monthly average counting rates of a neutron monitors is correlated to those of Kiel neutron monitor. The regression coefficients thus obtained are compared with the coupling coefficients of isotropic intensity radiation. The results of the comparisons for five year periods during 1963 to 1982, and for whole period are given. The variation spectrum with a single power law with an exponent of -0.75 up to 50 GV is not so unsatisfactory one. More than one half of the stations show correlations with the coefficient greater than 0.9. Some stations have shifted the level of mean counting rates by changing the instrumental characteristics which can be adjusted.

Rates of Change in Naturalistic Psychotherapy: Contrasting Dose-Effect and Good-Enough Level Models of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldwin, Scott A.; Berkeljon, Arjan; Atkins, David C.; Olsen, Joseph A.; Nielsen, Stevan L.

2009-01-01

Most research on the dose-effect model of change has combined data across patients who vary in their total dose of treatment and has implicitly assumed that the rate of change during therapy is constant across doses. In contrast, the good-enough level model predicts that rate of change will be related to total dose of therapy. In this study, the…

47 CFR 1.787 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reports of proposed changes in depreciation... Reports and Requests § 1.787 Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. Carriers shall file reports regarding proposed changes in depreciation rates as required by part 43 of this chapter. ...

18 CFR 342.4 - Other rate changing methodologies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Other rate changing methodologies. 342.4 Section 342.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... regard to the applicable ceiling level under § 342.3. (b) Market-based rates. A carrier may attempt to...

Inhomogeneous Poisson process rate function inference from dead-time limited observations.

PubMed

Verma, Gunjan; Drost, Robert J

2017-05-01

The estimation of an inhomogeneous Poisson process (IHPP) rate function from a set of process observations is an important problem arising in optical communications and a variety of other applications. However, because of practical limitations of detector technology, one is often only able to observe a corrupted version of the original process. In this paper, we consider how inference of the rate function is affected by dead time, a period of time after the detection of an event during which a sensor is insensitive to subsequent IHPP events. We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian approach to infer an IHPP rate function given dead-time limited process realizations. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of our inference approach and suggest its ability to extend the utility of existing sensor technology by permitting more accurate inference on signals whose observations are dead-time limited. We apply our inference algorithm to experimentally collected optical communications data, demonstrating the practical utility of our approach in the context of channel modeling and validation.

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate over Land from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

2002-01-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations over mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveal that there are localized maxima in the rain rate with a scale of about 10 to 20 km that represent thunderstorms (Cbs). Some of these Cbs are developing or intense, while others are decaying or weak. These Cbs constitute only about 20 % of the rain area of a given MCS. Outside of Cbs, the average rain rate is much weaker than that within Cbs. From an analysis of the PR data, we find that the spatial distribution of rain and its character, convective or stratiform, is highly inhomogeneous. This complex nature of rain exists on a scale comparable to that of a Cb. The 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observations of the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer taken over an MCS reflect closely the PR rain rate pattern over land. Local maxima in rain rate shown by PR are observed as local minima in T85. Where there are no minima in T85, PR observations indicate there is light rain. However, the TMI brightness temperature measurements (Tbs) have poor ability to discriminate convective rain from stratiform rain. For this reason, a TMI rain retrieval procedure that depends primarily on the magnitude of Tbs performs poorly. In order to retrieve rain rate from TMI data on land one has to include the spatial distribution information deduced from the T85 data in the retrieval method. Then, quantitative estimation of rain rate can be accomplished. A TMI rain retrieval method developed along these lines can yield estimates of rain rate and its frequency distribution which agree closely with that given by PR. We find the current TRMM project TMI (Version 5) rain retrieval algorithm on land could be improved with the retrieval scheme developed here. To support the conceptual frame work of the rain retrieval method developed here, a theoretical analysis of the TMI brightness temperatures in convective and stratiform regions is presented.

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate Over Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Over tropical land regions, rain rate maxima in mesoscale convective systems revealed by the Precipitation Radar (PR) flown on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are found to correspond to thunderstorms, i.e., Cbs. These Cbs are reflected as minima in the 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observed by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer. Because the magnitude of TMI observations do not discriminate satisfactorily convective and stratiform rain, we developed here a different TMI discrimination method. In this method, two types of Cbs, strong and weak, are inferred from the Laplacian of T85 at minima. Then, to retrieve rain rate, where T85 is less than 270 K, a weak (background) rain rate is deduced using T85 observations. Furthermore, over a circular area of 10 km radius centered at the location of each T85 minimum, an additional Cb component of rain rate is added to the background rain rate. This Cb component of rain rate is estimated with the help of (T19-T37) and T85 observations. Initially, our algorithm is calibrated with the PR rain rate measurements from 20 MCS rain events. After calibration, this method is applied to TMI data taken from several tropical land regions. With the help of the PR observations, we show that the spatial distribution and intensity of rain rate over land estimated from our algorithm are better than those given by the current TMI-Version-5 Algorithm. For this reason, our algorithm may be used to improve the current state of rain retrievals on land.

18 CFR 346.2 - Material in support of initial rates or change in rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., and oil losses and shortages; maintenance, including salaries and wages, supplies and expenses... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Material in support of initial rates or change in rates. 346.2 Section 346.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL...

Self-Rated Health Changes and Oldest-Old Mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives. This study explores how 2 measures of self-rated health (SRH) change are related to mortality among oldest-old adults. In doing so, it also considers how associations between SRH and mortality may depend on prior SRH. Method. Data come from the Asset and Health Dynamics survey—the oldest-old portion of the Health and Retirement Study—and follow 6,233 individuals across 13 years. I use parametric hazard models to examine relationships between death and 2 measures of short-term SRH change—a computed measure comparing SRH at time t–1 and t, and a respondent-provided retrospectively reported change. Results. Respondents who demonstrate or report any SRH change between survey waves died at a greater rate than those with consistent SRH. After controlling for morbidity, individual characteristics, and SRH, those who changed SRH categories between survey waves and those who retrospectively reported an improvement in health continue to have a greater risk of death, when compared with those with no change. Discussion. These findings suggest that the well-established associations between SRH status and mortality may understate the risk of death for oldest-old individuals with recent subjective health improvements. PMID:24589929

Satellite-observed cloud-top height changes in tornadic thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Fenn, D. D.

1981-01-01

Eleven tornadic storms are evaluated with respect to cloud top temperature changes relative to tornado touchdown. Digital IR data from the SMS/GOES geosynchronous satellites were employed for 10 F2 and one F1 tornadoes. A rapid ascent of the cloud tops 30-45 min before tornado touchdown, a temperature decrease of 0.4 K/min, and an ascent rate of about 3 m/sec were observed. The presence of an operating Doppler radar for three of the sample storms allowed detection of a mesocyclone coincident with the rapid cloud top ascent. The intensification and descent of the vortex to form a tornado is concluded to be due to a weakening of the updraft, the formation of a downdraft, and a shift of the vortex to the updraft-downdraft boundary, leading to dominance of the tilting term in the generation of vorticity.

Rate change detection of frequency modulated signals: developmental trends.

PubMed

Cohen-Mimran, Ravit; Sapir, Shimon

2011-08-26

The aim of this study was to examine developmental trends in rate change detection of auditory rhythmic signals (repetitive sinusoidally frequency modulated tones). Two groups of children (9-10 years old and 11-12 years old) and one group of young adults performed a rate change detection (RCD) task using three types of stimuli. The rate of stimulus modulation was either constant (CR), raised by 1 Hz in the middle of the stimulus (RR1) or raised by 2 Hz in the middle of the stimulus (RR2). Performance on the RCD task significantly improved with age. Also, the different stimuli showed different developmental trajectories. When the RR2 stimulus was used, results showed adult-like performance by the age of 10 years but when the RR1 stimulus was used performance continued to improve beyond 12 years of age. Rate change detection of repetitive sinusoidally frequency modulated tones show protracted development beyond the age of 12 years. Given evidence for abnormal processing of auditory rhythmic signals in neurodevelopmental conditions, such as dyslexia, the present methodology might help delineate the nature of these conditions.

The Rate of Visual Field Change in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study

PubMed Central

De Moraes, Carlos Gustavo V.; Gardiner, Stuart K.; Liebmann, Jeffrey M.; Cioffi, George A.; Ritch, Robert; Gordon, Mae O.; Kass, Michael A.

2012-01-01

Purpose. To assess the rate of change of visual field (VF) mean deviation (MD) in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS). Methods. OHTS data were filtered to exclude eyes that had fewer than 10 reliable VFs or less than 5 years of follow-up or that reached a nonglaucomatous endpoint. The rate of change of MD (MDR) was calculated for each eye. Differences were sought between groups of eyes differing in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) outcome, how POAG was determined, and original randomization. Results. In total, 2609 eyes (1379 participants) met the selection criteria. The mean MDR was −0.08 ± 0.20 dB/y (±SD). POAG eyes (n = 359) had significantly worse MDRs (−0.26 ± 0.36 dB/y) than non-POAG eyes (n = 2250; −0.05 ± 0.14 dB/y; P < 0.001). Eyes that reached POAG endpoints based on only VF change (n = 74; −0.29 ± 0.31 dB/y) or only optic disc change (n = 158; −0.12 ± 0.19 dB/y) had significantly worse MDRs than non-POAG eyes (both P < 0.001). Eyes that reached POAG endpoints for both VF and optic disc change (n = 127) deteriorated more rapidly (−0.42 ± 0.46 dB/y) than eyes showing only VF change (P = 0.017) or only optic disc change (P < 0.001). There was not a significant association between MDR and original OHTS randomization (observe vs. treat, P = 0.168). Conclusions. Eyes that develop POAG have significantly worse MDRs than eyes that do not. Eyes that reached endpoints due to both VF and optic disc change had worse MDRs than eyes displaying change in only one of these. MDR was not significantly associated with randomization, suggesting that MDR may not be the best measure of VF change in early-stage POAG. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000125.) PMID:22159015

Observer and Student Ratings of the Class Environment: A Preliminary Investigation of Convergence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Peter M.; Reddy, Linda A.; Dudek, Christopher M.; Lekwa, Adam J.

2017-01-01

The present study examined the relationship between student and observer ratings of the class environment. More specifically, class responses on the Responsive Environmental Assessment for Classroom Teaching (REACT; Theodore J. Christ & Colleagues, 2015) were compared with observer ratings on the Classroom Strategies Assessment System-Observer…

Self-rated health changes and oldest-old mortality.

PubMed

Vogelsang, Eric M

2014-07-01

This study explores how 2 measures of self-rated health (SRH) change are related to mortality among oldest-old adults. In doing so, it also considers how associations between SRH and mortality may depend on prior SRH. Data come from the Asset and Health Dynamics survey--the oldest-old portion of the Health and Retirement Study-and follow 6,233 individuals across 13 years. I use parametric hazard models to examine relationships between death and 2 measures of short-term SRH change--a computed measure comparing SRH at time t-1 and t, and a respondent-provided retrospectively reported change. Respondents who demonstrate or report any SRH change between survey waves died at a greater rate than those with consistent SRH. After controlling for morbidity, individual characteristics, and SRH, those who changed SRH categories between survey waves and those who retrospectively reported an improvement in health continue to have a greater risk of death, when compared with those with no change. These findings suggest that the well-established associations between SRH status and mortality may understate the risk of death for oldest-old individuals with recent subjective health improvements. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Numerical modelling of landscape and sediment flux response to precipitation rate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, John J.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Zakari, Mustapha; Campforts, Benjamin

2018-02-01

Laboratory-scale experiments of erosion have demonstrated that landscapes have a natural (or intrinsic) response time to a change in precipitation rate. In the last few decades there has been growth in the development of numerical models that attempt to capture landscape evolution over long timescales. However, there is still an uncertainty regarding the validity of the basic assumptions of mass transport that are made in deriving these models. In this contribution we therefore return to a principal assumption of sediment transport within the mass balance for surface processes; we explore the sensitivity of the classic end-member landscape evolution models and the sediment fluxes they produce to a change in precipitation rates. One end-member model takes the mathematical form of a kinetic wave equation and is known as the stream power model, in which sediment is assumed to be transported immediately out of the model domain. The second end-member model is the transport model and it takes the form of a diffusion equation, assuming that the sediment flux is a function of the water flux and slope. We find that both of these end-member models have a response time that has a proportionality to the precipitation rate that follows a negative power law. However, for the stream power model the exponent on the water flux term must be less than one, and for the transport model the exponent must be greater than one, in order to match the observed concavity of natural systems. This difference in exponent means that the transport model generally responds more rapidly to an increase in precipitation rates, on the order of 105 years for post-perturbation sediment fluxes to return to within 50 % of their initial values, for theoretical landscapes with a scale of 100×100 km. Additionally from the same starting conditions, the amplitude of the sediment flux perturbation in the transport model is greater, with much larger sensitivity to catchment size. An important finding is that

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... determine the interest rate and effective dates by category of poverty, intermediate, and market rates... 7 Agriculture 14 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate...

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... determine the interest rate and effective dates by category of poverty, intermediate, and market rates... 7 Agriculture 14 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate...

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... determine the interest rate and effective dates by category of poverty, intermediate, and market rates... 7 Agriculture 14 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate...

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... determine the interest rate and effective dates by category of poverty, intermediate, and market rates... 7 Agriculture 14 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate...

Concurrent validity and sensitivity to change of Direct Behavior Rating Single-Item Scales (DBR-SIS) within an elementary sample.

PubMed

Smith, Rhonda L; Eklund, Katie; Kilgus, Stephen P

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the concurrent validity, sensitivity to change, and teacher acceptability of Direct Behavior Rating single-item scales (DBR-SIS), a brief progress monitoring measure designed to assess student behavioral change in response to intervention. Twenty-four elementary teacher-student dyads implemented a daily report card intervention to promote positive student behavior during prespecified classroom activities. During both baseline and intervention, teachers completed DBR-SIS ratings of 2 target behaviors (i.e., Academic Engagement, Disruptive Behavior) whereas research assistants collected systematic direct observation (SDO) data in relation to the same behaviors. Five change metrics (i.e., absolute change, percent of change from baseline, improvement rate difference, Tau-U, and standardized mean difference; Gresham, 2005) were calculated for both DBR-SIS and SDO data, yielding estimates of the change in student behavior in response to intervention. Mean DBR-SIS scores were predominantly moderately to highly correlated with SDO data within both baseline and intervention, demonstrating evidence of the former's concurrent validity. DBR-SIS change metrics were also significantly correlated with SDO change metrics for both Disruptive Behavior and Academic Engagement, yielding evidence of the former's sensitivity to change. In addition, teacher Usage Rating Profile-Assessment (URP-A) ratings indicated they found DBR-SIS to be acceptable and usable. Implications for practice, study limitations, and areas of future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessment of Preschool Hyperactivity: Combining Rating Scale and Objective Observation Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayes, Susan Dickerson

1987-01-01

Advantages and disadvantages of behavior rating scales and observation systems are presented, followed by preliminary validity data for the Mayes Hyperactivity Observation System, a clinically feasible system to identify preschool children with both Attention Deficit Disorder and Hyperactivity. Hyperactive and normal children were identified with…

Nanoseismicity and picoseismicity rate changes from static stress triggering caused by a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozłowska, Maria; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Dresen, Georg

2015-01-01

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and distribution of aftershocks, yet this process has not been thoroughly investigated for nanoseismicity and picoseismicity at centimeter length scales. Here we utilize a unique data set of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, that was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine to investigate if rate- and state-based modeling is valid for shallow, mining-induced seismicity. We use Dieterich's (1994) rate- and state-dependent formulation for earthquake productivity, which requires estimation of four parameters: (1) Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock, (2) the reference seismicity rate, (3) frictional resistance parameter, and (4) the duration of aftershock relaxation time. Comparisons of the modeled spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity based on two different source models with the observed distribution show that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used three metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. The null hypothesis, of no significant difference between modeled and observed seismicity rates, was only rejected in the depth interval containing the main shock. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distributions of very small, mining-induced earthquakes can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Turbulent Reconnection Rates from Cluster Observations in the Magneto sheath

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wendel, Deirdre

2011-01-01

The role of turbulence in producing fast reconnection rates is an important unresolved question. Scant in situ analyses exist. We apply multiple spacecraft techniques to a case of nonlinear turbulent reconnection in the magnetosheath to test various theoretical results for turbulent reconnection rates. To date, in situ estimates of the contribution of turbulence to reconnection rates have been calculated from an effective electric field derived through linear wave theory. However, estimates of reconnection rates based on fully nonlinear turbulence theories and simulations exist that are amenable to multiple spacecraft analyses. Here we present the linear and nonlinear theories and apply some of the nonlinear rates to Cluster observations of reconnecting, turbulent current sheets in the magnetos heath. We compare the results to the net reconnection rate found from the inflow speed. Ultimately, we intend to test and compare linear and nonlinear estimates of the turbulent contribution to reconnection rates and to measure the relative contributions of turbulence and the Hall effect.

Observing Changing Ecological Diversity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimel, David S.; Asner, Gregory P.; Moorcroft, Paul

2012-01-01

As the world enters the Anthropocene, the planet's environment is changing rapidly, putting critical ecosystem services at risk. Understanding and forecasting how ecosystems will change over the coming decades requires understanding the sensitivity of species to environmental change. The extant distribution of species and functional groups contains valuable information about the performance of different species in different environments. However, with high rates of environmental change, information inherent in ranges of many species will disappear, since that information exists only under quasi-equilibrium conditions. The information content of distributional data obtained now is greater than data obtained in the future. New remote sensing technologies can map chemical and structural traits of plant canopies and allow inference of trait and in many cases, species ranges. Current satellite remote sensing data can only produce relatively simple classifications, but new techniques have dramatically higher biological information content.

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-12-21

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Improved observations of turbulence dissipation rates from wind profiling radars

DOE PAGES

McCaffrey, Katherine; Bianco, Laura; Wilczak, James M.

2017-07-20

Observations of turbulence dissipation rates in the planetary boundary layer are crucial for validation of parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. However, because dissipation rates are difficult to obtain, they are infrequently measured through the depth of the boundary layer. For this reason, demonstrating the ability of commonly used wind profiling radars (WPRs) to estimate this quantity would be greatly beneficial. During the XPIA field campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, two WPRs operated in an optimized configuration, using high spectral resolution for increased accuracy of Doppler spectral width, specifically chosen to estimate turbulence from a vertically pointing beam. Multiplemore » post-processing techniques, including different numbers of spectral averages and peak processing algorithms for calculating spectral moments, were evaluated to determine the most accurate procedures for estimating turbulence dissipation rates using the information contained in the Doppler spectral width, using sonic anemometers mounted on a 300 m tower for validation. Furthermore, the optimal settings were determined, producing a low bias, which was later corrected. Resulting estimations of turbulence dissipation rates correlated well ( R 2 = 0.54 and 0.41) with the sonic anemometers, and profiles up to 2 km from the 449 MHz WPR and 1 km from the 915 MHz WPR were observed.« less

Improved observations of turbulence dissipation rates from wind profiling radars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCaffrey, Katherine; Bianco, Laura; Wilczak, James M.

Observations of turbulence dissipation rates in the planetary boundary layer are crucial for validation of parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. However, because dissipation rates are difficult to obtain, they are infrequently measured through the depth of the boundary layer. For this reason, demonstrating the ability of commonly used wind profiling radars (WPRs) to estimate this quantity would be greatly beneficial. During the XPIA field campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, two WPRs operated in an optimized configuration, using high spectral resolution for increased accuracy of Doppler spectral width, specifically chosen to estimate turbulence from a vertically pointing beam. Multiplemore » post-processing techniques, including different numbers of spectral averages and peak processing algorithms for calculating spectral moments, were evaluated to determine the most accurate procedures for estimating turbulence dissipation rates using the information contained in the Doppler spectral width, using sonic anemometers mounted on a 300 m tower for validation. Furthermore, the optimal settings were determined, producing a low bias, which was later corrected. Resulting estimations of turbulence dissipation rates correlated well ( R 2 = 0.54 and 0.41) with the sonic anemometers, and profiles up to 2 km from the 449 MHz WPR and 1 km from the 915 MHz WPR were observed.« less

Imaging of vaporised sub-micron phase change contrast agents with high frame rate ultrasound and optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shengtao; Zhang, Ge; Jamburidze, Akaki; Chee, Melisse; Hau Leow, Chee; Garbin, Valeria; Tang, Meng-Xing

2018-03-01

Phase-change ultrasound contrast agent (PCCA), or nanodroplet, shows promise as an alternative to the conventional microbubble agent over a wide range of diagnostic applications. Meanwhile, high-frame-rate (HFR) ultrasound imaging with microbubbles enables unprecedented temporal resolution compared to traditional contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging. The combination of HFR ultrasound imaging and PCCAs can offer the opportunity to observe and better understand PCCA behaviour after vaporisation captures the fast phenomenon at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we utilised HFR ultrasound at frame rates in the kilohertz range (5-20 kHz) to image native and size-selected PCCA populations immediately after vaporisation in vitro within clinical acoustic parameters. The size-selected PCCAs through filtration are shown to preserve a sub-micron-sized (mean diameter  <  200 nm) population without micron-sized outliers (>1 µm) that originate from native PCCA emulsion. The results demonstrate imaging signals with different amplitudes and temporal features compared to that of microbubbles. Compared with the microbubbles, both the B-mode and pulse-inversion (PI) signals from the vaporised PCCA populations were reduced significantly in the first tens of milliseconds, while only the B-mode signals from the PCCAs were recovered during the next 400 ms, suggesting significant changes to the size distribution of the PCCAs after vaporisation. It is also shown that such recovery in signal over time is not evident when using size-selective PCCAs. Furthermore, it was found that signals from the vaporised PCCA populations are affected by the amplitude and frame rate of the HFR ultrasound imaging. Using high-speed optical camera observation (30 kHz), we observed a change in particle size in the vaporised PCCA populations exposed to the HFR ultrasound imaging pulses. These findings can further the understanding of PCCA behaviour under HFR ultrasound imaging.

Determining the predictors of change in quality of life self-ratings and carer-ratings for community-dwelling people with Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Bosboom, Pascalle R; Alfonso, Helman; Almeida, Osvaldo P

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the factors that mediate changes in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) ratings by community-dwelling people with Alzheimer disease (AD) and carers over a period of 18 months. We completed an 18-month longitudinal study of 80 community-dwelling older adults diagnosed with probable AD of mild or moderate severity (NINCDS-ADRD criteria) and their family carers. The primary outcome of interest was the 18-month change in HRQoL ratings as measured with the Quality of Life-AD (QoL-AD) (by carer and by self). Explanatory variables included demographics, lifestyle, cognition, awareness, psychopathology, burden-of-care, use of medication, and functionality in daily life. We found a significant decline (8.7%, P=0.003) in QoL-AD carer-ratings, but not in self-ratings. The final parsimonious model of predictors of changes in QoL-AD self-ratings explained 22.6% of the variance; only changes on Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale Anxiety retained significance. The final model of predictors of changes in carer-ratings explained 55.0% of the variance: that is, changes on Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly, changes on Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale Depression, practicing hobbies at 18 months, and number of visit(s) or admission(s) to hospital. HRQoL self-ratings and carer-ratings of community-dwelling people with AD do not decline at same rate over 18 months and changes are associated with different factors. Interventions designed to optimize quality of life of people with AD should consider carefully whose HRQoL ratings they wish to change.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Estimating fluid-induced stress change from observed deformation

DOE PAGES

Vasco, D. W.; Harness, Paul; Pride, Steve; ...

2016-12-19

Observed deformation is sensitive to a changing stress field within the Earth. There are, however, several impediments to a direct inversion of geodetic measurements for changes in stress. Estimating six independent components of stress change from a smaller number of displacement or strain components is inherently non-unique. The reliance upon surface measurements leads to a loss of resolution, due to the attenuation of higher spatial frequencies in the displacement field with distance from a source. Here, we adopt a technique suited to the estimation of stress changes due to the injection and/or withdrawal of fluids at depth. In this approachmore » the surface displacement data provides an estimate of the volume change responsible for the deformation, rather than stress changes themselves. The inversion for volume change is constrained by the fluid fluxes into and out of the reservoir. The distribution of volume change is used to calculate the displacements in the region above the reservoir. Estimates of stress change follow from differentiating the displacement field in conjunction with a geomechanical model of the o verburden. We also apply the technique to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations gathered over a petroleum reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley of California. An analysis of the InSAR range changes reveals that the stress field in the overburden varies rapidly both in space and in time. The inferred stress variations are found to be compatible with the documented failure of a well in the field.« less

Estimating fluid-induced stress change from observed deformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D. W.; Harness, Paul; Pride, Steve

Observed deformation is sensitive to a changing stress field within the Earth. There are, however, several impediments to a direct inversion of geodetic measurements for changes in stress. Estimating six independent components of stress change from a smaller number of displacement or strain components is inherently non-unique. The reliance upon surface measurements leads to a loss of resolution, due to the attenuation of higher spatial frequencies in the displacement field with distance from a source. Here, we adopt a technique suited to the estimation of stress changes due to the injection and/or withdrawal of fluids at depth. In this approachmore » the surface displacement data provides an estimate of the volume change responsible for the deformation, rather than stress changes themselves. The inversion for volume change is constrained by the fluid fluxes into and out of the reservoir. The distribution of volume change is used to calculate the displacements in the region above the reservoir. Estimates of stress change follow from differentiating the displacement field in conjunction with a geomechanical model of the o verburden. We also apply the technique to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations gathered over a petroleum reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley of California. An analysis of the InSAR range changes reveals that the stress field in the overburden varies rapidly both in space and in time. The inferred stress variations are found to be compatible with the documented failure of a well in the field.« less

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

PubMed Central

Jezkova, Tereza

2016-01-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change.

PubMed

Jezkova, Tereza; Wiens, John J

2016-11-30

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. © 2016 The Author(s).

Changes in atmospheric composition inferred from ionospheric production rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1974-01-01

Changes in the total electron content of the ionosphere near sunrise are used to determine the integrated production rate in the ionosphere (Q) from 1965 to 1971 at latitudes of 34S, 20N, and 34N. The observed regular semiannual variation in Q through a range of 1:3:1 is interpreted as an increase in the ratio O/N2 (relative densities) near the equinoxes. It follows that there is a worldwide semiannual variation in atmospheric composition, with the above ratio maximum just after the equinoxes. There is a large seasonal variation in the Northern hemisphere with a maximum in mid-summer. This effect is absent in the Southern hemisphere. At all times except solar maximum in the Northern hemisphere there is a global asymmetry. The ratio O/N2 is about three times as large in the Northern hemisphere. The overall mechanism appears to be N2 absorption.

Persistent changes in the initial rate of pyruvate transport by isolated rat liver mitochondria after preincubation with adenine nucleotides and calcium ions.

PubMed

Vaartjes, W J; den Breejen, J N; Geelen, M J; van den Bergh, S G

1980-08-05

1. Preincubation of isolated rat-liver mitochondria in the presence of adenine nucleotides or Ca2+ results in definite and persistent changes in the initial rate of pyruvate transport. 2. These changes in the rate of pyruvate transport are accompanied by equally persistent changes in the opposite direction of the activity of pyruvate dehydrogenase (EC 1.2.4.1). 3. Changes of the transmembrane pH gradient and of the membrane potential, brought about by the pretreatments of the mitochondria, cannot account for the observed changes in the rate of pyruvate transport. 4. It is proposed that the pretreatment of the mitochondria directly modulates the activity of the mitochondrial pyruvate carrier. The possible regulatory role of such a modulation system is discussed.

Changes in the relation between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexstone, G. A.; Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Moeser, D.; Liston, G. E.

2017-12-01

Snow monitoring stations that measure snow water equivalent or snow depth provide fundamental observations used for predicting water availability and flood risk in mountainous regions. In the western United States, snow station observations provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network are relied upon for forecasting spring and summer streamflow volume. Streamflow forecast accuracy has declined for many regions over the last several decades. Changes in snow accumulation and melt related to climate, land use, and forest cover are not accounted for in current forecasts, and are likely sources of error. Therefore, understanding and updating relations between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources is crucial to improve accuracy of streamflow prediction. In this study, we investigated the representativeness of snow station observations when compared to simulated basin-wide snow water resources within the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado. We used the combination of a process-based snow model (SnowModel), field-based measurements, and remote sensing observations to compare the spatiotemporal variability of simulated basin-wide snow accumulation and melt with that of SNOTEL station observations. Results indicated that observations are comparable to simulated basin-average winter precipitation but overestimate both the simulated basin-average snow water equivalent and snowmelt rate. Changes in the representation of snow station observations over time in the Rio Grande headwaters were also investigated and compared to observed streamflow and streamflow forecasting errors. Results from this study provide important insight in the context of non-stationarity for future water availability assessments and streamflow predictions.

Changes in Root Decomposition Rates Across Soil Depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks Pries, C.; Porras, R. C.; Castanha, C.; Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

Over half of global soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored in subsurface soils (>30 cm). Turnover times of soil organic carbon (SOC) increases with depth as evidenced by radiocarbon ages of 1,000 to more than 10,000 years in many deep soil horizons but the reasons for this increase are unclear. Many factors that potentially control SOC decomposition change with depth such as increased protection of SOC in aggregates or organo-mineral complexes and increased spatial heterogeneity of SOC "hotspots" like roots, which limit the accessibility of SOC to microbes. Lower concentrations of organic matter at depth may inhibit microbial activity due to energy limitation, and the microbial community itself changes with depth. To investigate how SOC decomposition differs with depth, we inserted a 13C-labeled fine root substrate into three depths (15, 50, and 90 cm) in a coniferous forest Alfisol and measured the root carbon remaining in particulate (>2 mm), bulk (< 2mm), free light, and mineral soil fractions over 2.5 years. We also characterized how the microbial community and SOC changed with depth. Initial rates of decomposition were unaffected by soil depth—50% of root carbon was lost from all depths within the first year. However, after 2.5 years, decomposition rates were affected by soil depth with only 15% of the root carbon remaining at 15 cm while 35% remained at 90 cm. Microbial communities, based on phospholipid fatty acid analysis, changed with depth—fungal biomarkers decreased whereas actinomycetes biomarkers increased. However, the preferences of different microbial groups for the 13C-labeled root carbon were consistent with depth. In contrast, the amount of mineral-associated SOC did not change with depth. Thus, decreased decomposition rates in this deep soil are not due to mineral associations limiting SOC availability, but may instead be due to changes in microbial communities, particularly in the microbes needed to carry out the later stages of root

Constraining Earth's Rheology of the Barents Sea Using Grace Gravity Change Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wal, W.; Root, B. C.; Tarasov, L.

2014-12-01

The Barents Sea region was ice covered during last glacial maximum and experiences Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Because of the limited amount of relevant geological and geodetic observations, it is difficult to constrain GIA models for this region. With improved ice sheet models and gravity observations from GRACE, it is possible to better constrain Earth rheology. This study aims to constrain the upper mantle viscosity and elastic lithosphere thickness from GRACE data in the Barents Sea region. The GRACE observations are corrected for current ice melting on Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya and Frans Joseph Land. A secular trend in gravity rate trend is estimated from the CSR release 5 GRACE data for the period of February 2003 to July 2013. Furthermore, long wavelength effects from distant large mass balance signals such as Greenland ice melting are filtered out. A new high-variance set of ice loading histories from calibrated glaciological modeling are used in the GIA modeling as it is found that ICE-5G over-estimates the observed GIA gravity change in the region. It is found that the rheology structure represented by VM5a results in over-estimation of the observed gravity change in the region for all ice sheet chronologies investigated. Therefore, other rheological Earth models were investigated. The best fitting upper mantle viscosity and elastic lithosphere thickness in the Barents Sea region are 4 (±0.5)*10^20 Pas and 110 (±20) km, respectively. The GRACE satellite mission proves to be a useful constraint in the Barents Sea Region for improving our knowledge on the upper mantle rheology.

Evolutionary rescue from extinction is contingent on a lower rate of environmental change.

PubMed

Lindsey, Haley A; Gallie, Jenna; Taylor, Susan; Kerr, Benjamin

2013-02-28

The extinction rate of populations is predicted to rise under increasing rates of environmental change. If a population experiencing increasingly stressful conditions lacks appropriate phenotypic plasticity or access to more suitable habitats, then genetic change may be the only way to avoid extinction. Evolutionary rescue from extinction occurs when natural selection enriches a population for more stress-tolerant genetic variants. Some experimental studies have shown that lower rates of environmental change lead to more adapted populations or fewer extinctions. However, there has been little focus on the genetic changes that underlie evolutionary rescue. Here we demonstrate that some evolutionary trajectories are contingent on a lower rate of environmental change. We allowed hundreds of populations of Escherichia coli to evolve under variable rates of increase in concentration of the antibiotic rifampicin. We then genetically engineered all combinations of mutations from isolates evolved under lower rates of environmental change. By assessing fitness of these engineered strains across a range of drug concentrations, we show that certain genotypes are evolutionarily inaccessible under rapid environmental change. Rapidly deteriorating environments not only limit mutational opportunities by lowering population size, but they can also eliminate sets of mutations as evolutionary options. As anthropogenic activities are leading to environmental change at unprecedented rapidity, it is critical to understand how the rate of environmental change affects both demographic and genetic underpinnings of evolutionary rescue.

A comparison of observers' and self-report pain ratings for children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Hadden, Kellie L; LeFort, Sandra; OʼBrien, Michelle; Coyte, Peter C; Guerriere, Denise N

2015-01-01

This study aimed to examine (1) the relationship between children's self-reports of pain and their different care providers' pain ratings, (2) the relationship between different care providers' ratings of pain in children with cerebral palsy (CP), and (3) whether the child's level of disability influences care providers' pain ratings. Sixty-three children with CP were separated into 2 groups according to whether they were able to pass a self-report training task. Pain was rated using a Numerical Rating Scale and the Non-Communicating Children's Pain Checklist-Postoperative Version (NCCPC-PV). Children were observed during their regular physiotherapy sessions at 3 separate time segments (Baseline, Stretch Procedure, and Recovery). As anticipated, results showed that all observers reported significantly higher pain scores during a physiotherapy stretching procedure than the baseline and recovery segments. Observers' NCCPC-PV scores were significantly higher during the stretch procedure for the children who did not pass the self-report training task. Findings also indicated that parents tended to report significantly lower pain scores compared with both their children and other observers. The findings bring into question the accuracy of single-observer pain ratings for children with CP and possess implications for the management of pain in children with CP.

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Statistical analysis of seismicity rate change in the Tokyo Metropolitan area due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishibe, T.; Sakai, S.; Shimazaki, K.; Satake, K.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Hirata, N.

2012-12-01

We examined a relationship between the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) due to the Tohoku earthquake (March 11, 2011; MJMA 9.0) and the seismicity rate change in Tokyo Metropolitan area following March 2011. Because of large variation in focal mechanism in the Kanto region, the receiver faults for the ΔCFF were assumed to be two nodal planes of small (M ≥ 2.0) earthquakes which occurred before and after the Tohoku earthquake. The seismicity rate changes, particularly the rate increase, are well explained by ΔCFF due to the gigantic thrusting, while some other possible factors (e.g., dynamic stress changes, excess of fluid dehydration) may also contribute the rate changes. Among 30,746 previous events provided by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (M ≥ 2.0, July 1979 - July 2003), we used as receiver faults, almost 16,000 events indicate significant increase in ΔCFF, while about 8,000 events show significant decrease. Positive ΔCFF predicts seismicity rate increase in southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, and in shallow crust of the Izu-Oshima and Hakone regions. In these regions, seismicity rates significantly increased after the Tohoku earthquake. The seismicity has increased since March 2011 with respect to the Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), indicating that the rate change was due to the stress increase by the Tohoku earthquake. The activated seismicity in the Izu and Hakone regions rapidly decayed following the Omori-Utsu formula, while the increased rate of seismicity in the southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures is still continuing. We also calculated ΔCFF due to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake for the focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes between April 2008 and October 2011 recorded on the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). The ΔCFF values for the earthquakes after March 2011 show more

Hospital Use of Observation Stays: Cross-sectional Study of the Impact on Readmission Rates.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Arjun K; Wang, Changqin; Ross, Joseph S; Altaf, Faseeha K; Suter, Lisa G; Vellanky, Smitha; Grady, Jacqueline N; Bernheim, Susannah M

2016-12-01

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services publicly reports hospital risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRRs) as a measure of quality and performance; mischaracterizations may occur because observation stays are not captured by current measures. To describe variation in hospital use of observation stays, the relationship between hospitals observation stay use and RSRRs. Cross-sectional analysis of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries discharged after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, or pneumonia between July 2011 and June 2012. We calculated 3 hospital-specific 30-day outcomes: (1) observation rate, the proportion of all discharges followed by an observation stay without a readmission; (2) observation proportion, the proportion of observation stays among all patients with an observation stay or readmission; and (3) RSRR. For all 3 conditions, hospitals' observation rates were <2.5% and observation proportions were <12%, although there was variation across hospitals, including 28% of hospital with no observation stay use for AMI, 31% for heart failure, and 43% for pneumonia. There were statistically significant, but minimal, correlations between hospital observation rates and RSRRs: AMI (r=-0.02), heart failure (r=-0.11), and pneumonia (r=-0.02) (P<0.001). There were modest inverse correlations between hospital observation proportion and RSRR: AMI (r=-0.34), heart failure (r=-0.26), and pneumonia (r=-0.21) (P<0.001). If observation stays were included in readmission measures, <4% of top performing hospitals would be recategorized as having average performance. Hospitals' observation stay use in the postdischarge period is low, but varies widely. Despite modest correlation between the observation proportion and RSRR, counting observation stays in readmission measures would minimally impact public reporting of performance.

48 CFR 41.402 - Rate changes and regulatory intervention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... regulatory intervention. 41.402 Section 41.402 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... changes and regulatory intervention. (a) When a change is proposed to rates or terms and conditions of... that may be of interest to other Federal agencies, and intervention before a regulatory body is...

48 CFR 41.402 - Rate changes and regulatory intervention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... regulatory intervention. 41.402 Section 41.402 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... changes and regulatory intervention. (a) When a change is proposed to rates or terms and conditions of... that may be of interest to other Federal agencies, and intervention before a regulatory body is...

48 CFR 41.402 - Rate changes and regulatory intervention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... regulatory intervention. 41.402 Section 41.402 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... changes and regulatory intervention. (a) When a change is proposed to rates or terms and conditions of... that may be of interest to other Federal agencies, and intervention before a regulatory body is...

48 CFR 41.402 - Rate changes and regulatory intervention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... regulatory intervention. 41.402 Section 41.402 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... changes and regulatory intervention. (a) When a change is proposed to rates or terms and conditions of... that may be of interest to other Federal agencies, and intervention before a regulatory body is...

48 CFR 41.402 - Rate changes and regulatory intervention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... regulatory intervention. 41.402 Section 41.402 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... changes and regulatory intervention. (a) When a change is proposed to rates or terms and conditions of... that may be of interest to other Federal agencies, and intervention before a regulatory body is...

Can Mindful Parenting Be Observed? Relations between Observational Ratings of Mother-Youth Interactions and Mothers’ Self-Report Mindful Parenting

PubMed Central

Duncan, Larissa G.; Coatsworth, J. Douglas; Gayles, Jochebed G.; Geier, Mary H.; Greenberg, Mark T.

2015-01-01

Research on mindful parenting, an extension of mindfulness to the interpersonal domain of parent-child relationships, has been limited by its reliance on self-report assessment. The current study is the first to examine whether observational indices of parent-youth interactions differentiate between high and low levels of self-reported mindful parenting. The Iowa Family Interaction Rating Scales (IFIRS) were used to code interactions between mothers and their 7th grade youth. Mothers drawn from the top and bottom quartiles (n = 375) of a larger distribution of self-reported interpersonal mindfulness in parenting (N = 804) represented clearly defined high and low mindful parenting groups. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) was used to analyze how well six composite IFIRS observational rating variables (e.g., parental warmth, consistent discipline) discriminated between high and low self-reports of mindful parenting. DFA results were cross-validated, with statistically significant canonical correlations found for both subsamples (p < .05). Subsequent independent samples t-tests revealed that group means were significantly different on all six IFIRS composite ratings. Confirmation of the relations between self-report mindful parenting and the observational ratings was also provided through hierarchical regression analyses conducted with a continuous predictor of mindful parenting using the full sample. Thus, the present study provides preliminary evidence for a link between self-reported mindful parenting and observed interactions between parents and youth. PMID:25844494

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline

Observations of environmental change in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Robert H.; Melis, Theodore S.; Valdez, Richard A.

2002-01-01

Few scientific data have been collected on pre-dam conditions of the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon National Park. Using historical diaries, interviews with pre-dam river runners (referred to as the ?Old Timers?), and historical scientific data and observations, we compiled anecdotal information on environmental change in Grand Canyon. The most significant changes are the: lowering of water temperature in the river, near-elimination of heavily sediment-laden flows, erosion of sand bars, invasion of non-native tamarisk trees, reduction in driftwood, development of marshes, increase in non-native fish at the expense of native fishes, and increase in water bird populations. In addition, few debris flows were observed before closure of Glen Canyon Dam, which might suggests that the frequency of debris flows in Grand Canyon has increased. Other possible changes include decreases in bat populations and increases in swallow and bighorn sheep populations, although the evidence is anecdotal and inconclusive. These results provide a perspective on managing the Colorado River that may allow differentiation of the effects of Glen Canyon Dam from other processes of change.

Hurricane Sandy: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sopkin, Kristin L.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Morgan, Karen L.M.; Guy, Kristy K.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.

2014-01-01

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 29, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the U.S. Atlantic coastline. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and beach and dune erosion occurred along most of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, the U.S. Geological Survey collected post-Hurricane Sandy oblique aerial photography and lidar topographic surveys to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. Comparisons of post-storm photographs to those collected prior to Sandy’s landfall were used to characterize the nature, magnitude, and spatial variability of hurricane-induced coastal changes. Analysis of pre- and post-storm lidar elevations was used to quantify magnitudes of change in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach width. Erosion was observed along the coast from North Carolina to New York; however, as would be expected over such a large region, extensive spatial variability in storm response was observed.

The social perception of emotional abilities: expanding what we know about observer ratings of emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Barsade, Sigal G; Eisenkraft, Noah

2015-02-01

We examine the social perception of emotional intelligence (EI) through the use of observer ratings. Individuals frequently judge others' emotional abilities in real-world settings, yet we know little about the properties of such ratings. This article examines the social perception of EI and expands the evidence to evaluate its reliability and cross-judge agreement, as well as its convergent, divergent, and predictive validity. Three studies use real-world colleagues as observers and data from 2,521 participants. Results indicate significant consensus across observers about targets' EI, moderate but significant self-observer agreement, and modest but relatively consistent discriminant validity across the components of EI. Observer ratings significantly predicted interdependent task performance, even after controlling for numerous factors. Notably, predictive validity was greater for observer-rated than for self-rated or ability-tested EI. We discuss the minimal associations of observer ratings with ability-tested EI, study limitations, future directions, and practical implications. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Determination of the cosmological rate of change of G and the tidal accelerations of earth and moon from ancient and modern astronomical data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, P. M.

1976-01-01

The theory and numerical analysis of ancient astronomical observations (1374 to 1715) are combined with modern data in a simultaneous solution for: the tidal acceleration of the lunar longitude; the observed apparent acceleration of the earth's rotation; the true nontidal geophysical part of this acceleration; and the rate of change in the gravitational constant. Provided are three independent determinations of a rate of change of G consistent with the Hubble Constant and a near zero nontidal rotational acceleration of the earth. The tidal accelerations are shown to have remained constant during the historical period within uncertainties. Ancient and modern solar system data, and extragalactic observations provided a completely consistent astronomical and cosmological scheme.

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Observes Changes

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-02-08

NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has been observing Mars in sharp detail for more than a decade, enabling it to document many types of changes, such as the way winds alter the appearance of this recent impact site. The space-rock impact that created this blast zone occurred sometime between September 2005 and February 2006, as bracketed by observations made with the Mars Orbiter Camera on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft. The location is between two large volcanos, named Ascraeus Mons and Pavonis Mons, in a dusty area of the Tharsis region of Mars. During the period from 2007 to 2012, winds blowing through the pass between the volcanoes darkened some regions and brightened others, probably by removing and depositing dust. The view covers an area about 1.0 mile (1.6 kilometers) across, at 7 degrees north latitude, 248 degrees east longitude. North is toward the top. An animation is availalble at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21267

Sensitivity of decomposition rates of soil organic matter with respect to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, Carlos A.; Trumbore, Susan E.; Davidson, Eric A.; Vicca, Sara; Janssens, I.

2015-03-01

The sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition to global environmental change is a topic of prominent relevance for the global carbon cycle. Decomposition depends on multiple factors that are being altered simultaneously as a result of global environmental change; therefore, it is important to study the sensitivity of the rates of soil organic matter decomposition with respect to multiple and interacting drivers. In this manuscript, we present an analysis of the potential response of decomposition rates to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. To address this problem, we first present a theoretical framework to study the sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition when multiple driving factors change simultaneously. We then apply this framework to models and data at different levels of abstraction: (1) to a mechanistic model that addresses the limitation of enzyme activity by simultaneous effects of temperature and soil water content, the latter controlling substrate supply and oxygen concentration for microbial activity; (2) to different mathematical functions used to represent temperature and moisture effects on decomposition in biogeochemical models. To contrast model predictions at these two levels of organization, we compiled different data sets of observed responses in field and laboratory studies. Then we applied our conceptual framework to: (3) observations of heterotrophic respiration at the ecosystem level; (4) laboratory experiments looking at the response of heterotrophic respiration to independent changes in moisture and temperature; and (5) ecosystem-level experiments manipulating soil temperature and water content simultaneously.

Global changes alter soil fungal communities and alter rates of organic matter decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J.; Frey, S. D.

2016-12-01

Global changes - such as warming, more frequent and severe droughts, increasing atmospheric CO2, and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition rates - are altering ecosystem processes. The balance between soil carbon (C) accumulation and decomposition is determined in large part by the activity and biomass of detrital organisms, namely soil fungi, and yet their sensitivity to global changes remains unresolved. We present results from a meta-analysis of 200+ studies spanning manipulative and observational field experiments to quantify fungal responses to global change and expected consequences for ecosystem C dynamics. Warming altered the functional soil microbial community by reducing the ratio of fungi to bacteria (f:b) total fungal biomass. Additionally, warming reduced lignolytic enzyme activity generally by one-third. Simulated N deposition affected f:b differently than warming, but the effect on fungal biomass and activity was similar. The effect of N-enrichment on f:b was contingent upon ecosystem type; f:b increased in alpine meadows and heathlands but decreased in temperate forests following N-enrichment. Across ecosystems, fungal biomass marginally declined by 8% in N-enriched soils. In general, N-enrichment reduced fungal lignolytic enzyme activity, which could explain why soil C accumulates in some ecosystems following warming and N-enrichment. Several global change experiments have reported the surprising result that soil C builds up following increases in temperature and N deposition rates. While site-specific studies have examined the role of soil fungi in ecosystem responses to global change, we present the first meta-analysis documenting general patterns of global change impacts on soil fungal communities, biomass, and activity. In sum, we provide evidence that soil microbial community shifts and activity plays a large part in ecosystem responses to global changes, and have the potential to alter the magnitude of the C-climate feedback.

Variability of Shoreline Change Rates Along the North Coast of Alaska from the U.S. Canadian Border to Icy Cape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbs, A.; Richmond, B. M.; Snyder, A.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been focused on arctic coastlines lately, particularly with respect to whether erosion rates are accelerating in response to a warming arctic climate. While several locally focused studies suggest coastal erosion has accelerated within the recent past, few regional data sets exist from which to observe and measure coastal change over the long-term. The U.S. Geological Survey has assembled and analyzed shoreline position for 4 eras (1940s, 1980s, 2000s, 2010s) along nearly 1,700 km of the Alaskan coast from the U.S. Canadian Border to Icy Cape. Shoreline change rates were calculated for 3 time periods: long-term (LT; 1940s to 2010s), early short-term (ET; 1940s to 1980s), and late short-term (ST; 1980s-2010s) and summarized by geographic region and shoreline type (exposed, sheltered, mainland, and barrier coast). Results show that the northern coast of Alaska was dominantly erosional from the 1940s to 2010s with a mean long-term shoreline change rate of -1.4±0.1 m/yr. Rates were highly variable, ranging from -25 m/yr to +20 m/yr, with extreme rates associated with migration of barrier islands and limited sections of the mainland coast. Mean shoreline change rates along the Beaufort Sea coast were considerably higher compared to the Chukchi Sea Coast (6, 5, and 20 times higher over the LT, ET, and ST, respectively). Mean shoreline change rates across the region increased slightly from the ET (-1.2±0.1 m/yr) to ST (-1.4±0.1 m/yr). Along the Beaufort Sea Coast, mean shoreline change rates were increasingly erosional (ET -1.5±0.1 m/yr, ST -1.9±0.1 m/yr) in contrast to the Chukchi Sea Coast where a decrease in the mean erosion rate was observed (ET -0.5±0.1 m/yr, ST -0.1±0.1 m/yr). All shoreline types except for the exposed barrier coasts showed increasingly erosional shoreline change rates through time, with the largest relative increase on exposed mainland coasts. Increases in mean erosion and accretion rates through time, along with an

Genetic change and rates of cladogenesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Avise, J.C.; Ayala, F.J.

1975-12-01

Models are introduced which predict ratios of mean levels of genetic divergence in species-rich versus species-poor phylads under two competing assumptions: (1) genetic differentiation is a function of time, unrelated to the number of cladogenetic events and (2) genetic differentiation is proportional to the number of speciation events in the group. The models are simple, general, and biologically real, but not precise. They lead to qualitatively distinct predictions about levels of genetic divergence depending upon the relationship between rates of speciation and amount of genetic change. When genetic distance between species is a function of time, mean genetic distances inmore » speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age are very similar. On the contrary, when genetic distance is a function of the number of speciations in the history of a phylad, the ratio of mean genetic distances separating species in speciose versus depauperate phylads is greater than one, and increases rapidly as the frequency of speciations in one group relative to the other increases. The models may be tested with data from natural populations to assess (1) possible correlations between rates of anagenesis and cladogenesis and (2) the amount of genetic differentiation accompanying the speciation process. The data collected in electrophoretic surveys and other kinds of studies can be used to test the predictions of the models. For this purpose genetic distances need to be measured in speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age. The limited information presently available agrees better with the model predicting that genetic change is primarily a function of time, and is not correlated with rates of speciation. Further testing of the models is, however, required before firm conclusions can be drawn. (auth)« less

Readmissions, Observation, and the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Rachael B; Sheingold, Steven H; Orav, E John; Ruhter, Joel; Epstein, Arnold M

2016-04-21

The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, which is included in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), applies financial penalties to hospitals that have higher-than-expected readmission rates for targeted conditions. Some policy analysts worry that reductions in readmissions are being achieved by keeping returning patients in observation units instead of formally readmitting them to the hospital. We examined the changes in readmission rates and stays in observation units over time for targeted and nontargeted conditions and assessed whether hospitals that had greater increases in observation-service use had greater reductions in readmissions. We compared monthly, hospital-level rates of readmission and observation-service use within 30 days after hospital discharge among Medicare elderly beneficiaries from October 2007 through May 2015. We used an interrupted time-series model to determine when trends changed and whether changes differed between targeted and nontargeted conditions. We assessed the correlation between changes in readmission rates and use of observation services after adoption of the ACA in March 2010. We analyzed data from 3387 hospitals. From 2007 to 2015, readmission rates for targeted conditions declined from 21.5% to 17.8%, and rates for nontargeted conditions declined from 15.3% to 13.1%. Shortly after passage of the ACA, the readmission rate declined quickly, especially for targeted conditions, and then continued to fall at a slower rate after October 2012 for both targeted and nontargeted conditions. Stays in observation units for targeted conditions increased from 2.6% in 2007 to 4.7% in 2015, and rates for nontargeted conditions increased from 2.5% to 4.2%. Within hospitals, there was no significant association between changes in observation-unit stays and readmissions after implementation of the ACA. Readmission trends are consistent with hospitals' responding to incentives to reduce readmissions, including the financial penalties for

Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

2018-02-01

Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

Equivalent Theories and Changing Hamiltonian Observables in General Relativity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitts, J. Brian

2018-03-01

Change and local spatial variation are missing in Hamiltonian general relativity according to the most common definition of observables as having 0 Poisson bracket with all first-class constraints. But other definitions of observables have been proposed. In pursuit of Hamiltonian-Lagrangian equivalence, Pons, Salisbury and Sundermeyer use the Anderson-Bergmann-Castellani gauge generator G, a tuned sum of first-class constraints. Kuchař waived the 0 Poisson bracket condition for the Hamiltonian constraint to achieve changing observables. A systematic combination of the two reforms might use the gauge generator but permit non-zero Lie derivative Poisson brackets for the external gauge symmetry of General Relativity. Fortunately one can test definitions of observables by calculation using two formulations of a theory, one without gauge freedom and one with gauge freedom. The formulations, being empirically equivalent, must have equivalent observables. For de Broglie-Proca non-gauge massive electromagnetism, all constraints are second-class, so everything is observable. Demanding equivalent observables from gauge Stueckelberg-Utiyama electromagnetism, one finds that the usual definition fails while the Pons-Salisbury-Sundermeyer definition with G succeeds. This definition does not readily yield change in GR, however. Should GR's external gauge freedom of general relativity share with internal gauge symmetries the 0 Poisson bracket (invariance), or is covariance (a transformation rule) sufficient? A graviton mass breaks the gauge symmetry (general covariance), but it can be restored by parametrization with clock fields. By requiring equivalent observables, one can test whether observables should have 0 or the Lie derivative as the Poisson bracket with the gauge generator G. The latter definition is vindicated by calculation. While this conclusion has been reported previously, here the calculation is given in some detail.

Equivalent Theories and Changing Hamiltonian Observables in General Relativity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitts, J. Brian

2018-05-01

Change and local spatial variation are missing in Hamiltonian general relativity according to the most common definition of observables as having 0 Poisson bracket with all first-class constraints. But other definitions of observables have been proposed. In pursuit of Hamiltonian-Lagrangian equivalence, Pons, Salisbury and Sundermeyer use the Anderson-Bergmann-Castellani gauge generator G, a tuned sum of first-class constraints. Kuchař waived the 0 Poisson bracket condition for the Hamiltonian constraint to achieve changing observables. A systematic combination of the two reforms might use the gauge generator but permit non-zero Lie derivative Poisson brackets for the external gauge symmetry of General Relativity. Fortunately one can test definitions of observables by calculation using two formulations of a theory, one without gauge freedom and one with gauge freedom. The formulations, being empirically equivalent, must have equivalent observables. For de Broglie-Proca non-gauge massive electromagnetism, all constraints are second-class, so everything is observable. Demanding equivalent observables from gauge Stueckelberg-Utiyama electromagnetism, one finds that the usual definition fails while the Pons-Salisbury-Sundermeyer definition with G succeeds. This definition does not readily yield change in GR, however. Should GR's external gauge freedom of general relativity share with internal gauge symmetries the 0 Poisson bracket (invariance), or is covariance (a transformation rule) sufficient? A graviton mass breaks the gauge symmetry (general covariance), but it can be restored by parametrization with clock fields. By requiring equivalent observables, one can test whether observables should have 0 or the Lie derivative as the Poisson bracket with the gauge generator G. The latter definition is vindicated by calculation. While this conclusion has been reported previously, here the calculation is given in some detail.

Reinforcer magnitude and rate dependency: evaluation of resistance-to-change mechanisms.

PubMed

Pinkston, Jonathan W; Ginsburg, Brett C; Lamb, Richard J

2014-10-01

Under many circumstances, reinforcer magnitude appears to modulate the rate-dependent effects of drugs such that when schedules arrange for relatively larger reinforcer magnitudes rate dependency is attenuated compared with behavior maintained by smaller magnitudes. The current literature on resistance to change suggests that increased reinforcer density strengthens operant behavior, and such strengthening effects appear to extend to the temporal control of behavior. As rate dependency may be understood as a loss of temporal control, the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency may be due to increased resistance to disruption of temporally controlled behavior. In the present experiments, pigeons earned different magnitudes of grain during signaled components of a multiple FI schedule. Three drugs, clonidine, haloperidol, and morphine, were examined. All three decreased overall rates of key pecking; however, only the effects of clonidine were attenuated as reinforcer magnitude increased. An analysis of within-interval performance found rate-dependent effects for clonidine and morphine; however, these effects were not modulated by reinforcer magnitude. In addition, we included prefeeding and extinction conditions, standard tests used to measure resistance to change. In general, rate-decreasing effects of prefeeding and extinction were attenuated by increasing reinforcer magnitudes. Rate-dependent analyses of prefeeding showed rate-dependency following those tests, but in no case were these effects modulated by reinforcer magnitude. The results suggest that a resistance-to-change interpretation of the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency is not viable.

Heart rate changes in partial seizures: analysis of influencing factors among refractory patients

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background We analyzed the frequency of heart rate (HR) changes related to seizures, and we sought to identify the influencing factors of these changes during partial seizures, to summarize the regularity of the HR changes and gain some insight into the mechanisms involved in the neuronal regulation of cardiovascular function. To date, detailed information on influencing factors of HR changes related to seizures by multiple linear regression analysis remains scarce. Methods Using video-electroencephalograph (EEG)-electrocardiograph (ECG) recordings, we retrospectively assessed the changes in the HR of 81 patients during a total of 181 seizures, including 27 simple partial seizures (SPS), 110 complex partial seizures (CPS) and 44 complex partial seizures secondarily generalized (CPS-G). The epileptogenic focus and the seizure type, age, gender, and sleep/wakefulness state of each patient were evaluated during and after the seizure onset. The HR changes were evaluated in the stage of epilepsy as time varies. Results Of the 181 seizures from 81 patients with ictal ECGs, 152 seizures (83.98%) from 74 patients were accompanied by ictal tachycardia (IT). And only 1 patient was accompanied by ictal bradycardia (IB). A patient has both IT and IB. We observed that HR difference was independently correlated with side, type and sleep/wakefulness state. In this analysis, the HR changes were related to the side, gender, seizure type, and sleep/wakefulness state. Right focus, male, sleep, and CPS-G showed more significant increases than that were observed in left, female, wakefulness, SPS and CPS. HR increases rapidly within 10 seconds before seizure onset and ictus, and typically slows to normal with seizure offset. Conclusion CPS-G, sleep and right focus led to higher ictal HR. The HR in the stage of epilepsy has regularly been observed to change to become time-varying. The risk factors of ictal HR need to be controlled along with sleep, CPS-G and right focus. Our study first

The Effects of Two Simulations on Conceptions of Rate of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tague, Jenna; Joseph, Manjula Peter; Zhang, Pingping

2017-01-01

The focus of the current proposal is to examine the effect of two dynamic simulations on the participants' conceptions of rate of change. Conceptions of rate of change were measured according to Carlson et al.'s (2002) Mental Actions framework and how the participants related the physical simulations to the graphical representations (Heid, et al.,…

Change in heart rate variability after the adult attachment interview in dissociative patients.

PubMed

Farina, Benedetto; Speranza, Anna Maria; Imperatori, Claudio; Quintiliani, Maria Isabella; Della Marca, Giacomo

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess heart rate variability (HRV) in individuals with dissociative disorders (DD) before and after the Adult Attachment Interview (AAI). Electrocardiograms were recorded before, during, and after the AAI in 13 individuals with DD and 13 healthy participants matched for age and gender. Significant change in HRV was observed only in the DD group. After the AAI, those with DD showed significant increases in the low frequency/high frequency ratio (pre-AAI = 1.91 ± 1.19; post-AAI = 4.03 ± 2.40; Wilcoxon test = -2.76, p = .005). Our results suggest that the retrieval of childhood attachment experiences in individuals with DD is associated with a change in HRV patterns that could reflect the emotion dysregulation of dissociative psychopathological processes.

Does the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change help moving forward in measuring change in early autism intervention studies?

PubMed

Pijl, Mirjam Kj; Rommelse, Nanda Nj; Hendriks, Monica; De Korte, Manon Wp; Buitelaar, Jan K; Oosterling, Iris J

2018-02-01

The field of early autism research is in dire need of outcome measures that adequately reflect subtle changes in core autistic behaviors. This article compares the ability of a newly developed measure, the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change (BOSCC), and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) to detect changes in core symptoms of autism in 44 toddlers. The results provide encouraging evidence for the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change as a candidate outcome measure, as reflected in sufficient inter- and intra-rater reliability, independency from other child characteristics, and sensitivity to capture change. Although the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change did not evidently outperform the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule on any of these quality criteria, the instrument may be better able to capture subtle, individual changes in core autistic symptoms. The promising findings warrant further study of this new instrument.

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate... interest rate charged by FmHA or its successor agency under Public Law 103-354 to water and waste disposal...

Ozone, ozone production rates and NO observations on the outskirts of Quito, Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazorla, M.

2014-12-01

Air quality measurements of ambient ozone, ozone production rates and nitrogen oxides, in addition to baseline meterology observations, are being taken at a recently built roof-top facility on the campus of Universidad San Francisco de Quito, in Ecuador. The measurement site is located in Cumbayá, a densely populated valley adjacent to the city of Quito. Time series of ozone and NO are being obtained with commercial air quality monitors. Rush-hour peaks of NO, above 100 ppb, have been observed, while daytime ozone levels are low. In addition, ozone production rates are being measured with the Ecuadorian version of the MOPS, Measurement of Ozone Production Sensor, originally built at Penn State University in 2010. NO and ozone observations and test results of measured ozone production rates will be presented.

The effect of changing the magnetic field strength on HiPIMS deposition rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, J. W.; Mishra, A.; Kelly, P. J.

2015-06-01

The marked difference in behaviour between HiPIMS and conventional dc or pulsed-dc magnetron sputtering discharges with changing magnetic field strengths is demonstrated through measurements of deposition rate. To provide a comparison between techniques the same circular magnetron was operated in the three excitation modes at a fixed average power of 680 W and a pressure of 0.54 Pa in the non-reactive sputtering of titanium. The total magnetic field strength B at the cathode surface in the middle of the racetrack was varied from 195 to 380 G. DC and pulsed-dc discharges show the expected behaviour that deposition rates fall with decreasing B (here by ~25-40%), however the opposite trend is observed in HiPIMS with deposition rates rising by a factor of 2 over the same decrease in B. These observations are understood from the stand point of the different composition and transport processes of the depositing metal flux between the techniques. In HiPIMS, this flux is largely ionic and slow post-ionized sputtered particles are subject to strong back attraction to the target by a retarding plasma potential structure ahead of them. The height of this potential barrier is known to increase with increasing B. From a simple phenomenological model of the sputtered particles fluxes, and using the measured deposition rates from the different techniques as inputs, the combined probabilities of ionization, α, and back attraction, β, of the metal species in HiPIMS has been calculated. There is a clear fall in αβ (from ~0.9 to ~0.7) with decreasing B-field strengths, we argue primarily due to a weakening of electrostatic ion back attraction, so leading to higher deposition rates. The results indicate that careful design of magnetron field strengths should be considered to optimise HiPIMS deposition rates.

Understanding Rates of Change: How have climate transitions during the Holocene driven the pace of vegetation change in California ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.; Barron, J. A.

2016-12-01

A fundamental aspect of ecosystem response to global climate change is the rate at which systems can change, determined in large part by the timing and magnitude of changes in climate parameters. Reorganization in atmosphere/ocean dynamics of the North Pacific on millennial to centennial time scales has resulted in climate change in western North America. The seasonality of the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific High, Pacific SSTs, and related high frequency variability (ENSO, PDO) all strongly influence temperature and precipitation regimes of western North America. This study assesses the rate of vegetation response to climate change in the western United States. Here we present preliminary reconstructions of rates of vegetation change in California from 11k cal. BP to the present. Research questions include: Do increased rates of ecosystem transformation correspond with times of marked reorganization in climate dynamics? What is the geographic distribution of rates of change, and how does that distribution vary through time? Rate of change is defined as the ratio of the difference in abundances of a fixed array of pollen taxa between adjacent samples within a pollen record over time. The measure of difference was determined using the VEGAN package in R and applying the Bray-Curtis measure. Analyses are based on publicly available data from published fossil pollen studies. Our initial results suggest broad coherence of increased change rates at around 3.5k and 6k cal. BP. Future work will focus on evaluating potential refinements of the filter applied to the pollen data and standardization of the sample intervals, as well as on expansion of the data sets analyzed to include the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest regions of North America in order to provide a more comprehensive analysis of past change rates in the western US.

Observed Changes at Viking Lander 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.

1985-01-01

A local dust storm raged in Chryse Planitia, Mars, in June 1981. The changes wrought in the vicinity of the lander (Mutch Memorial Station) by this storm sometime near Sol 1742 were partly described previously. Here, changes related to the storm are itemized, evidence for wind directions during the peak of the storm are cited, and two observations unrelated to the storm are noted. The observations suggest that the eroding winds of the Sol 1742 storm were more easterly (N. 35 deg to 90 deg E.) than those (N. 5 deg to 11 deg E.) that formed the large wind tails; and fragments in erosional residues are 0.7 cm and larger, but smaller ones may be present. Some fragments 0.4 to 0.5 cm and smaller were somehow removed, at least locally; wind speeds of the 1742 local storm were probably greater than those of a previous local dust storm (25 to 30 m/s) that occurred during the same season on Sol 423 because the earlier storm did not alter the surface; the major, if not entire, amount of erosion by the storm occurred between Sols 1728 and 1757; and erosion chiefly occurred where the surface configuration and material properties were altered by the lander and its sampler.

7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Notice of Change in Interest Rate

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Notice of Change in Interest Rate B Exhibit B to... Interest Rate (insert date) Notice of Change in Interest Rate (insert borrower's address) Re: □ □ Fund code... ___, for the original amount of ___ dollars ($___) provides for a change in interest rate for a limited...

Observed Changes at the Surface of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortmeyer, M.; Rigor, I.

2004-12-01

The Arctic has long been considered a harbinger of global climate change since simulations with global climate models predict that if the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles, the Arctic would warm by more than 5°C, compared to a warming of 2°C for subpolar regions (Manabe et al., 1991). And indeed, studies of the observational records show polar amplification of the warming trends (e.g. Serreze and Francis, 2004). These temperature trends are accompanied by myriad concurrent changes in Arctic climate. One of the first indicators of Arctic climate change was found by Walsh et al. (1996) using sea level pressure (SLP) data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). In this study, they showed that SLP over the Arctic Ocean decreased by over 4 hPa from 1979 - 1994. The decreases in SLP (winds) over the Arctic Ocean, forced changes in the circulation of sea ice and the surface ocean currents such that the Beaufort Gyre is reduced in size and speed (e.g. Rigor et al., 2002). Data from the IABP has also been assimilated into the global surface air temperature (SAT) climatologies (e.g. Jones et al. 1999), and the IABP SAT analysis shows that the temperature trends noted over land extend out over the Arctic Ocean. Specifically, Rigor et al. (2000) found warming trends in SAT over the Arctic Ocean during win¬ter and spring, with values as high as 2°C/decade in the eastern Arctic during spring. It should be noted that many of the changes in Arctic climate were first observed or explained using data from the IABP. The observations from IABP have been one of the cornerstones for environmental forecasting and studies of climate and climate change. These changes have a profound impact on wildlife and people. Many species and cultures depend on the sea ice for habitat and subsistence. Thus, monitoring the Arctic Ocean is crucial not only for our ability to detect climate change, but also to improve our understanding of the

Effects of Lateral Heterogeneity and Power Law Rheology on Glacially Induced Surface Motion and Gravity Rate of Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, P.; Wang, H.; van der Wal, W.

2006-12-01

Modern geodetic measurements from GPS, satellite altimetry, tide-gauges, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and space-borne gravimetry (such as GRACE) have been used to monitor global change. Since these measurements contain contributions from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and other tectonic processes, they must be modeled and removed in order to observe current climate change. In the past, most GIA models assumed that the earth is laterally homogeneous and the rheology is linear. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of lateral heterogeneity and Power-Law rheology on GIA induced land uplift rate, horizontal velocities, relative sealevels, J-dot and the secular gravity rate of change in the southern part of Hudson Bay, which is detected by the GRACE mission. Here, GIA is modeled with a spherical, self-gravitating, compressible viscoelastic, laterally heterogeneous earth using the Finite-Element Method. The effect of gravitationally self-consistent sea levels in realistic oceans is also included. Lateral variations in mantle viscosities and lithospheric thickness are inferred from the seismic tomography model S20A using well known scaling relationships. Power-Law rheologies in the whole mantle or in combination with linear rheologies in the upper or lower mantle are also investigated. Both ICE-5G and ICE-4G deglaciation models are used to investigate their effect on the pattern of rebound. Preliminary results show that both lateral heterogeneity and power-law rheology have strong effects on the direction and magnitude of horizontal velocities. The effects of lateral heterogeneity and power-law rheology are also large enough to be detected in land uplift rate, relative sealevels, J-dot and gravity rate of change. Their implication on observing the effects of global warming will also be discussed.

Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-04-01

Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

Observational study: microgravity testing of a phase-change reference on the International Space Station

PubMed Central

Topham, T Shane; Bingham, Gail E; Latvakoski, Harri; Podolski, Igor; Sychev, Vladimir S; Burdakin, Andre

2015-01-01

Background: Orbital sensors to monitor global climate change during the next decade require low-drift rates for onboard thermometry, which is currently unattainable without on-orbit recalibration. Phase-change materials (PCMs), such as those that make up the ITS-90 standard, are seen as the most reliable references on the ground and could be good candidates for orbital recalibration. Space Dynamics Lab (SDL) has been developing miniaturized phase-change references capable of deployment on an orbital blackbody for nearly a decade. Aims: Improvement of orbital temperature measurements for long duration earth observing and remote sensing. Methods: To determine whether and how microgravity will affect the phase transitions, SDL conducted experiments with ITS-90 standard material (gallium, Ga) on the International Space Station (ISS) and compared the phase-change temperature with earth-based measurements. The miniature on-orbit thermal reference (MOTR) experiment launched to the ISS in November 2013 on Soyuz TMA-11M with the Expedition 38 crew and returned to Kazakhstan in March 2014 on the Soyuz TMA-10 spacecraft. Results: MOTR tested melts and freezes of Ga using repeated 6-h cycles. Melt cycles obtained on the ground before and after launch were compared with those obtained on the ISS. Conclusions: To within a few mK uncertainty, no significant difference between the melt temperature of Ga at 1 g and in microgravity was observed. PMID:28725713

Observational study: microgravity testing of a phase-change reference on the International Space Station.

PubMed

Topham, T Shane; Bingham, Gail E; Latvakoski, Harri; Podolski, Igor; Sychev, Vladimir S; Burdakin, Andre

2015-01-01

Orbital sensors to monitor global climate change during the next decade require low-drift rates for onboard thermometry, which is currently unattainable without on-orbit recalibration. Phase-change materials (PCMs), such as those that make up the ITS-90 standard, are seen as the most reliable references on the ground and could be good candidates for orbital recalibration. Space Dynamics Lab (SDL) has been developing miniaturized phase-change references capable of deployment on an orbital blackbody for nearly a decade. Improvement of orbital temperature measurements for long duration earth observing and remote sensing. To determine whether and how microgravity will affect the phase transitions, SDL conducted experiments with ITS-90 standard material (gallium, Ga) on the International Space Station (ISS) and compared the phase-change temperature with earth-based measurements. The miniature on-orbit thermal reference (MOTR) experiment launched to the ISS in November 2013 on Soyuz TMA-11M with the Expedition 38 crew and returned to Kazakhstan in March 2014 on the Soyuz TMA-10 spacecraft. MOTR tested melts and freezes of Ga using repeated 6-h cycles. Melt cycles obtained on the ground before and after launch were compared with those obtained on the ISS. To within a few mK uncertainty, no significant difference between the melt temperature of Ga at 1 g and in microgravity was observed.

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.

PubMed

Foufopoulos, Johannes; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Ives, Anthony R

2011-01-01

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.

76 FR 396 - Product Change-Priority Mail-Non-Published Rates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-04

... POSTAL SERVICE Product Change--Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates AGENCY: Postal Service TM . ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Postal Service notice of filing of a request with the Postal Regulatory... States Postal Service Concerning Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates and Notice of Filing Materials Under...

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Customer service-rate and service changes. 76.1603 Section 76.1603 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1603 Customer service—rate and...

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Customer service-rate and service changes. 76.1603 Section 76.1603 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1603 Customer service—rate and...

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Customer service-rate and service changes. 76.1603 Section 76.1603 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1603 Customer service—rate and...

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Customer service-rate and service changes. 76.1603 Section 76.1603 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1603 Customer service—rate and...

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Customer service-rate and service changes. 76.1603 Section 76.1603 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1603 Customer service—rate and...

Rate of change of heart size before congestive heart failure in dogs with mitral regurgitation.

PubMed

Lord, P; Hansson, K; Kvart, C; Häggström, J

2010-04-01

The objective of the study was to examine the changes in vertebral heart scale, and left atrial and ventricular dimensions before and at onset of congestive heart failure in cavalier King Charles spaniels with mitral regurgitation. Records and radiographs from 24 cavalier King Charles spaniels with mitral regurgitation were used. Vertebral heart scale (24 dogs), and left atrial dimension and left ventricular end diastolic and end systolic diameters (18 dogs) and their rate of increase were measured at intervals over years to the onset of congestive heart failure. They were plotted against time to onset of congestive heart failure. Dimensions and rates of change of all parameters were highest at onset of congestive heart failure, the difference between observed and chance outcome being highly significant using a two-tailed chi-square test (P<0.001). The left heart chambers increase in size rapidly only in the last year before the onset of congestive heart failure. Increasing left ventricular end systolic dimension is suggestive of myocardial failure before the onset of congestive heart failure. Rate of increase of heart dimensions may be a useful indicator of impending congestive heart failure.

77 FR 64148 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-18

... of free tracking. Priority Mail Flat Rate Box prices change to the following: Small ($5.80), Medium.... Several international ancillary services and paper money orders receive price increases. Certificates of.... International Return Receipt also receives price increases, and International Postal Money Order prices increase...

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter;

Impact of needleless connector change frequency on central line-associated bloodstream infection rate.

PubMed

Sandora, Thomas J; Graham, Dionne A; Conway, Margaret; Dodson, Brenda; Potter-Bynoe, Gail; Margossian, Steven P

2014-05-01

Bloodstream infection is the most common pediatric health care-associated infection and is strongly associated with catheter use. These infections greatly increase the cost of hospital stay. To assess the association between needleless connector (NC) change frequency and central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rate, we modeled monthly pediatric stem cell transplant (SCT) CLABSI rate in 3 periods: baseline period during which NC were changed every 96 hours regardless of infusate (period 1); trial period in which NC were changed every 24 hours with blood or lipid infusions (period 2); and a return to NC change every 96 hours regardless of infusate (period 3). Data on potential confounders were collected retrospectively. Autocorrelated segmented regression models were used to compare SCT CLABSI rates in each period, adjusting for potential confounders. CLABSI rates were also assessed for a nonequivalent control group (oncology unit) in which NC were changed every 24 hours with blood or lipid use in periods 2 and 3. SCT CLABSI rates were 0.41, 3.56, and 0.03 per 1,000 central line-days in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In multivariable analysis, the CLABSI rate was significantly higher in period 2 compared with both period 1 (P = .01) and period 3 (P = .003). In contrast, CLABSI rates on the oncology unit were not significantly different among periods. In pediatric SCT patients, changing needleless connectors every 24 hours when blood or lipids are infused is associated with increased CLABSI rates. National recommendations regarding NC change frequency should be clarified. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Changing medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in French maternity units from 1997 to 2000].

PubMed

Vincent-Boulétreau, A; Caillat-Vallet, E; Dumas, A M; Ayzac, L; Chapuis, C; Emery, M N; Girard, R; Haond, C; Lafarge-Leboucher, J; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fabry, J

2005-04-01

In this study we describe the changes in medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in obstetrics observed through a surveillance network in the South East of France. The maternity units which belong to this network participated in voluntary surveillance using the network's methodology. The criteria for the diagnosis of nosocomial infections were in accordance with the methods described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 101240 pregnancies including 18503 caesareans (18.3%) were included in the network from 1997 to 2000. During the study period, nosocomial infection rates following caesarean section and vaginal delivery decreased respectively from 7.8% to 4.3% (p < 0.001) and from 2.2% to 0.9% (p < 0.001). This evolution was compared with the evolution of collected risk factors. In spite of the methodology limits, general value of surveillance and infection control programs in maternity units has been confirmed by the results of this surveillance network. During the study period, both obstetrics-related risk factors for nosocomial infection and observed hospital-acquired infection rates were dramatically reduced, what prove an improvement of quality of care in maternity units.

The evolution of practice changes in the use of special observations.

PubMed

Ray, Richard; Perkins, Evelyn; Meijer, Barbara

2011-04-01

In acute psychiatric settings, it is common practice to increase the intensity of observations of patients who present with self-injurious thoughts, who are at risk of injuring others, or who exhibit behaviors that adversely impact the overall milieu. These intense observations are intrusive and may result in untoward stimulation of the patient. Nurses at an urban academic medical center addressed the problem of intrusive and overstimulating levels of observation by developing two practice changes using intuitive knowledge combined with input from current nursing literature. The first change was designed to move from observation to engagement. The second change was designed to decrease patient agitation related to intense observation. This article discusses the potential adverse consequences associated with the use of intense levels of observation and describes two protocols that have contributed to a reduction in the use of seclusion and restraints, as well as staff members' reported perceptions of feeling safer and experiencing improved job satisfaction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seamless Data-Rate Change Using Punctured Convolutional Codes for Time-Varying Signal-to-Noise Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feria, Y.; Cheung, K.-M.

1994-10-01

In a time-varying signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) environment, symbol rate is often changed to maximize data return. However, the symbol-rate change has some undesirable effects, such as changing the transmission bandwidth and perhaps causing the receiver symbol loop to lose lock temporarily, thus losing some data. In this article, we are proposing an alternate way of varying the data rate without changing the symbol rate and, therefore, the transmission bandwidth. The data rate change is achieved in a seamless fashion by puncturing the convolutionally encoded symbol stream to adapt to the changing SNR environment. We have also derived an exact expression to enumerate the number of distinct puncturing patterns. To demonstrate this seamless rate-change capability, we searched for good puncturing patterns for the Galileo (14,1/4) convolutional code and changed the data rates by using the punctured codes to match the Galileo SNR profile of November 9, 1997. We show that this scheme reduces the symbol-rate changes from nine to two and provides a comparable data return in a day and a higher symbol SNR during most of the day.

Changes in unit structures and infanticide observed in Arsi geladas.

PubMed

Mori, Akio; Belay, Gurja; Iwamoto, Toshitaka

2003-07-01

In 1989 a new gelada baboon ( Theropithecus gelada) population was found in Arsi, on the opposite side of the Rift Valley to that of the known gelada populations of Semien and Showa. Previous comparisons of units of the band at Gado Goro, Arsi, in the same season in consecutive years, indicated that unit structure is less stable among Arsi geladas as compared to the Semien population. Gelada units of the band at Gado-Goro were studied for 7 months in order to investigate the processes of social changes. Changes in unit structure were observed. Provisioning was carried out for 1.5 months at the beginning of the 7-month study period, in order to capture and obtain blood samples from the geladas. Following this, changes in male leadership of some units were observed, presumably as a consequence of the capture. However, natural changes also occurred. One change in unit structure occurred after a female gave birth, and changes in another unit occurred after the disappearance of the leader male. These changes involved female desertion of a unit, her subsequent transfer to a male unit, and culminated in the formation of a unit consisting of one female and one male. One successful and one attempted case of unification of units, and one case of change of a unit leader male are reported. These changes occurred among eight resident units in a period of 7 months (196 female months). Though the types of social changes were not much different from previous observations in Semien National Park, their frequencies seemed to be much higher. The characteristics of Arsi gelada social changes are proposed to be related to the small size of the units. We also describe a new confirmed case and one suspected case of infanticide, as well as one case of abortion at the time of male leader change.

Observational Test of the Dayside Magnetopause Reconnection Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Kistler, L. M.; Mouikis, C.

2014-12-01

In asymmetric reconnection, the reconnection rate (R) is expected to follow the Cassak-Shay formula with an aspect ratio of around 0.1. At the magnetopause, reconnection is asymmetric, with the dense shocked solar wind population on the magnetosheath side, and a normally hot and tenuous population on the magnetospheric side. However, the hot magnetospheric population can contain a significant O+ component that increases the mass density, and the magnetospheric population may also include a cold dense population of plasmaspheric origin. We perform a statistical study of 13 magnetopause reconnection events observed by Cluster to determine how the reconnection rate depends on these different populations. The events are mainly at high latitudes, due to the Cluster orbit. Our results show that the measured R generally follows the Cassak-Shay prediction when all populations are included. However, the predicted rate only considering the magnetosheath contribution also correlates well with the measured R. For individual events, cold ions can make a comparable contribution to the magnetosheath H+ when there are plasmaspheric drainage plumes; the contribution of the magnetospheric hot O+ can be up to ~30%. However, the variation of solar wind conditions has a larger effect on the variation in the reconnection rate. The aspect ratio does not vary systematically with the O+ content, and 0.1 is a reasonable estimation. The outflow velocity is around the hybrid Alfven speed, but there is not a strong correlation. This may be due to motion of the x-line, or effects of the magnetosheath shear flow.

A prospective observational study of pigmented naevi changes in psoriasis patients on biologic therapy.

PubMed

Choi, Seohee Deanne; D'Souza, Mario I; Menzies, Scott W; Weninger, Wolfgang

2018-05-23

Patients on biologic therapy are thought to be at increased risk of developing non-melanoma skin cancers and melanomas. It is unknown whether biologic therapy alters the natural history of melanocytic naevi. Therefore, a prospective observational study was conducted to determine whether psoriasis patients on biologic therapy develop changes in naevi. Clinical and dermoscopic assessment of all melanocytic naevi was performed in 45 psoriasis patients on biologic therapy versus a control cohort of 43 subjects, using sequential digital dermoscopic imaging and total body photography. The mean follow-up period was 1.5 years. The study and control patients had comparable age, gender, previous and family history of non-melanoma skin cancers and melanomas, as well as previous sun exposure and total number of naevi. The number of naevi with major dermoscopic changes was 3% in the study and 1.9% in the control group, with an adjusted incidence rate ratio of 1.45 (95% confidence interval 0.90-2.33; P = 0.125). The rate of minor changes was 15.9% in the study group versus 19.4% in the control (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.57-1.08; P = 0.14). There were six new dysplastic naevi in 4/45 biologic patients and four in 4/43 controls; however, the difference was not significant (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval -0.12 to 0.12; P = 0.95). There were no melanomas in either group. Over a mean follow-up period of 1.5 years there was no evidence of significantly different changes in naevi or development of new dysplastic naevi in psoriasis patients on biologic treatment compared to controls. © 2018 The Australasian College of Dermatologists.

Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

2016-02-01

The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

2009-01-01

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Development of an Observational Rating Schedule for Preschool Children's Peer-Group Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Jo Lynn; Boger, Robert P.

The feasiblity of an observational rating scale which would provide objective, reliable and quantifiable measures of social and affective behavior was investigated. The Observation of Socialization Behavior (OSB), focusing on peer-group behavior of pre-school children and designed for use in unstructured situations was developed. Two forms of the…

Diurnal changes in the power spectral characteristics of eye movements and heart rate variability in the human fetus at term.

PubMed

Morokuma, S; Horimoto, N; Nakano, H

2001-08-01

It is well known that 1/f characteristics in power spectral patterns exist in various biological factors including heart rate variability. In the present study, we tried to elucidate the diurnal variation in spectral properties of eye movement and heart rate variability in the human fetus at term, via continuous 24-h observation of both these parameters. Studied were five uncomplicated fetuses at term. We observed eye movement and fetal heart rate (FHR) with real-time ultrasound and Doppler cardiotocograph, respectively, and analyzed the diurnal change in spectral properties, using the maximum entropy method. In four of five cases, the slope values of power spectra for both eye movement frequency and FHR, ranging approximately between 0.5 and 1.8, indicated diurnal variation, where the slopes tended to have high values during the day and low values at night. These findings suggest that, in the human fetus at term, eye movement and FHR are under the control of a common central mechanism, and this center changes its complexity as seen through diurnal rhythm.

The rate of change of vergence-accommodation conflict affects visual discomfort.

PubMed

Kim, Joohwan; Kane, David; Banks, Martin S

2014-12-01

Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25 Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort.

The Rate of Change of Vergence-Accommodation Conflict Affects Visual Discomfort

PubMed Central

Kane, David; Banks, Martin S.

2014-01-01

Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort. PMID:25448713

78 FR 67393 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-12

... Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate...

Observations of HF backscatter decay rates from HAARP generated FAI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bristow, William; Hysell, David

2016-07-01

Suitable experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facilities in Gakona, Alaska, create a region of ionospheric Field-Aligned Irregularities (FAI) that produces strong radar backscatter observed by the SuperDARN radar on Kodiak Island, Alaska. Creation of FAI in HF ionospheric modification experiments has been studied by a number of authors who have developed a rich theoretical background. The decay of the irregularities, however, has not been so widely studied yet it has the potential for providing estimates of the parameters of natural irregularity diffusion, which are difficult measure by other means. Hysell, et al. [1996] demonstrated using the decay of radar scatter above the Sura heating facility to estimate irregularity diffusion. A large database of radar backscatter from HAARP generated FAI has been collected over the years. Experiments often cycled the heater power on and off in a way that allowed estimates of the FAI decay rate. The database has been examined to extract decay time estimates and diffusion rates over a range of ionospheric conditions. This presentation will summarize the database and the estimated diffusion rates, and will discuss the potential for targeted experiments for aeronomy measurements. Hysell, D. L., M. C. Kelley, Y. M. Yampolski, V. S. Beley, A. V. Koloskov, P. V. Ponomarenko, and O. F. Tyrnov, HF radar observations of decaying artificial field aligned irregularities, J. Geophys. Res. , 101, 26,981, 1996.

Observations of HF backscatter decay rates from HAARP generated FAI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bristow, W. A.; Hysell, D. L.

2016-12-01

Suitable experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facilities in Gakona, Alaska, create a region of ionospheric Field-Aligned Irregularities (FAI) that produces strong radar backscatter observed by the SuperDARN radar on Kodiak Island, Alaska. Creation of FAI in HF ionospheric modification experiments has been studied by a number of authors who have developed a rich theoretical background. The decay of the irregularities, however, has not been so widely studied yet it has the potential for providing estimates of the parameters of natural irregularity diffusion, which are difficult measure by other means. Hysell, et al. [1996] demonstrated using the decay of radar scatter above the Sura heating facility to estimate irregularity diffusion. A large database of radar backscatter from HAARP generated FAI has been collected over the years. Experiments often cycled the heater power on and off in a way that allowed estimates of the FAI decay rate. The database has been examined to extract decay time estimates and diffusion rates over a range of ionospheric conditions. This presentation will summarize the database and the estimated diffusion rates, and will discuss the potential for targeted experiments for aeronomy measurements. Hysell, D. L., M. C. Kelley, Y. M. Yampolski, V. S. Beley, A. V. Koloskov, P. V. Ponomarenko, and O. F. Tyrnov, HF radar observations of decaying artificial field aligned irregularities, J. Geophys. Res. , 101, 26,981, 1996.

Calving laws and strain rates: a comparison between modelled relationships and observations from InSAR velocity maps from across Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, James; Nick, Faezeh; Benn, Douglas; Kirchner, Nina

2017-04-01

Calving is a major mechanism of cryospheric ice mass loss and a significant contributor to global sea level change, though it is currently poorly understood as a process. Longitudinal strain rate is often cited as a first order control on calving, however multiple different calving laws (not always including the strain rate) have been used to represent this in numerical models of ice sheets. This study seeks to investigate how (1) different calving laws within a 1D flowline model predict strain rate will evolve within increasing terminus thickness for steady state and transient simulations, and (2) how these relationships compare with observed strains (derived from MEaSUREs Greenland InSAR velocity maps; Joughin et al., 2010 [updated 2016]) and depths (from BedMachine v.2 subglacial topography data; Morlighem et al., 2014). We identify that systematic relationships with terminus thickness exist for height above buoyancy, waterline and full-depth crevasse calving laws amongst others for both steady state and transient simulations. However, analysis of observed near-terminus strain rates for multiple Greenlandic glaciers using a variety of metrics (with a range of bed depths predicted by BedMachine) does not reproduce the shape or magnitude of any of these modelled relationships. Relationships between strain rate and depth derived from simple 1D model simulations therefore cannot be realistically compared to current real-world observations. This suggests that the magnitude of observed strain rates at an individual point, or area-averaged conditions near a real-world terminus are not meaningful in determining the potential for calving when taken in isolation. To improve understanding of first/second order calving processes, future modelling work should therefore look to analyse how/if the distribution of strain across the terminus region impacts calving as part of 2D-planform/3D models.

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Pete; Schatzman, C.; Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.; Gopalswamy, N.

2006-01-01

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Matching and Conditioned Reinforcement Rate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shahan, Timothy A.; Podlesnik, Christopher A.; Jimenez-Gomez, Corina

2006-01-01

Attempts to examine the effects of variations in relative conditioned reinforcement rate on choice have been confounded by changes in rates of primary reinforcement or changes in the value of the conditioned reinforcer. To avoid these problems, this experiment used concurrent observing responses to examine sensitivity of choice to relative…

Genetic variation for farrowing rate in pigs in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature.

PubMed

Sevillano, C A; Mulder, H A; Rashidi, H; Mathur, P K; Knol, E F

2016-08-01

Seasonal infertility is often observed as anestrus and a lower conception rate resulting in a reduced farrowing rate (FR) during late summer and early autumn. This is often regarded as an effect of heat stress; however, we observed a reduction in the FR of sows even after correcting for ambient temperature in our data. Therefore, we added change in photoperiod in the analysis of FR considering its effect on sow fertility. Change in photoperiod was modeled using the cosine of the day of first insemination within a year. On an average, the FR decreased by 2% during early autumn with decreasing daily photoperiod compared with early summer with almost no change in daily photoperiod. It declined 0.2% per degree Celsius of ambient temperature above 19.2°C. This result is a step forward in disentangling the 2 environmental components responsible for seasonal infertility. Our next aim was to estimate the magnitude of genetic variation in FR in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature to explore opportunities for selecting pigs to have a constant FR throughout the year. We used reaction norm models to estimate additive genetic variation in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature. The results revealed a larger genetic variation at stressful environments when daily photoperiod decreased and ambient temperatures increased above 19.2°C compared with neutral environments. Genetic correlations between stressful environments and nonstressful environments ranged from 0.90 (±0.03) to 0.46 (±0.13) depending on the severity of the stress, indicating changes in expression of FR depending on the environment. The genetic correlation between responses of pigs to changes in photoperiod and to those in ambient temperature were positive, indicating that pigs tolerant to decreasing daily photoperiod are also tolerant to high ambient temperatures. Therefore, selection for tolerance to decreasing daily photoperiod should also increase tolerance to high

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Asm-Triggered too Observations of Z Sources at Low Accretion Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Klis, Michiel

We propose to perform a pointed observation if the ASM shows that a Z source has entered a state of low accretion rate. This would provide a unique opportunity to detect millisecond pulsations. In Sco X-1 we would expect to discover beat-frequency QPO, and could perform a unique high count rate study of them. At sufficiently low accretion rate it would be possible to study the accretion flow when the magnetospheric radius approaches the corotation radius. The frequency of the horizontal branch QPO should go to zero here, and centrifugal inhibition of the accretion should set in, providing direct tests of the magnetospheric model of Z sources.

Dramatic Change in Jupiter's Great Red Spot from Spacecraft Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Amy A.; Wong, Michael H.; Rogers, John H.; Orton, Glenn S.; de Pater, Imke; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Carlson, Robert W.; Marcus, Philip S.

2015-01-01

Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS) is one of its most distinct and enduring features. Since the advent of modern telescopes, keen observers have noted its appearance and documented a change in shape from very oblong to oval, confirmed in measurements from spacecraft data. It currently spans the smallest latitude and longitude size ever recorded. Here we show that this change has been accompanied by an increase in cloud/haze reflectance as sensed in methane gas absorption bands, increased absorption at wavelengths shorter than 500 nanometers, and increased spectral slope between 500 and 630 nanometers. These changes occurred between 2012 and 2014, without a significant change in internal tangential wind speeds; the decreased size results in a 3.2 day horizontal cloud circulation period, shorter than previously observed. As the GRS has narrowed in latitude, it interacts less with the jets flanking its north and south edges, perhaps allowing for less cloud mixing and longer UV irradiation of cloud and aerosol particles. Given its long life and observational record, we expect that future modeling of the GRS's changes, in concert with laboratory flow experiments, will drive our understanding of vortex evolution and stability in a confined flow field crucial for comparison with other planetary atmospheres.

26 CFR 1.1-3 - Change in rates applicable to taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Section 1.1-3 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES Normal Taxes and Surtaxes § 1.1-3 Change in rates applicable to taxable year. For computation of the tax for a taxable year during which a change in the tax rates occurs, see section 21 and the...

Observations and simulations of snowpack cold content and its relationship to snowmelt timing and rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, K. S.; Molotch, N. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain snowpacks serve as a vital water resource for more than 1 billion people across the globe. Two key properties of snowmelt—rate and timing—are controlled by the snowpack energy budget where incoming positive fluxes are balanced by a decrease in the energy deficit of the snowpack and a change in the phase of water from solid to liquid. In this context, the energy deficit, or cold content, regulates snowmelt as runoff does not commence until the deficit approaches zero. There is significant uncertainty surrounding cold content despite its relevance to snowmelt processes, likely due to the inherent difficulties in its observation. Our work has clarified the previously unresolved meteorological and energy balance controls on cold content development in seasonal snowpacks by leveraging two unique datasets from the Niwot Ridge LTER in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The first is a long-term snow pit record of snowpack properties from an alpine and subalpine site within the LTER. These data were augmented with a 23-year simulation of the snowpack at both sites using a quality controlled, serially complete, hourly forcing dataset. The observations and simulations both indicated that cold content primarily developed through new snowfall, while a negative energy budget provided a secondary pathway for cold content development, mainly through longwave emission and sublimation. Cold content gains from snowfall outnumbered energy balance gains by 438% in the alpine and 166% in the subalpine. Increased spring precipitation and later peak cold content significantly delayed snowmelt onset and daily melt rates were reduced by 32.2% in the alpine and 36.1% in the subalpine when an energy deficit needed to be satisfied. Furthermore, preliminary climate change simulations indicated warmer air temperatures reduced cold content accumulation, which increased the amount of snow lost to melt throughout the winter as incoming positive fluxes had to overcome smaller energy

Further Insight into the Effectiveness of a Behavioral Teacher Program Targeting ADHD Symptoms Using Actigraphy, Classroom Observations and Peer Ratings.

PubMed

Veenman, Betty; Luman, Marjolein; Oosterlaan, Jaap

2017-01-01

Objective: The Positivity and Rules program (PR program), a low-level behavioral teacher program targeting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), has shown positive effects on teacher-rated ADHD symptoms and social functioning. This study aimed to assess whether program effects could be confirmed by instruments assessing classroom behavior other than teacher-ratings, given teachers' involvement with the training. Methods: Participants were 114 primary school children (age = 6-13) displaying ADHD symptoms in the classroom, who were randomly assigned to the treatment ( n = 58) or control group ( n = 65). ADHD symptoms were measured using classroom observations and actigraphy, and peer acceptance was measured using peer ratings. Intention-to-treat multilevel analyses were conducted to assess program effects. Results: No beneficial program effects were found for any of the measures. Conclusion: The earlier beneficial program effects on both ADHD symptoms and social functioning reported by teachers, may be explained by a change in the perception of teachers rather than changes in the child's behavior. Other methodological explanations are also discussed, such as differences between instruments in the sensitivity to program-related changes. The current study underlines the importance of using different measures of classroom behavior to study program effects. ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT02518711.

Further Insight into the Effectiveness of a Behavioral Teacher Program Targeting ADHD Symptoms Using Actigraphy, Classroom Observations and Peer Ratings

PubMed Central

Veenman, Betty; Luman, Marjolein; Oosterlaan, Jaap

2017-01-01

Objective: The Positivity and Rules program (PR program), a low-level behavioral teacher program targeting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), has shown positive effects on teacher-rated ADHD symptoms and social functioning. This study aimed to assess whether program effects could be confirmed by instruments assessing classroom behavior other than teacher-ratings, given teachers’ involvement with the training. Methods: Participants were 114 primary school children (age = 6–13) displaying ADHD symptoms in the classroom, who were randomly assigned to the treatment (n = 58) or control group (n = 65). ADHD symptoms were measured using classroom observations and actigraphy, and peer acceptance was measured using peer ratings. Intention-to-treat multilevel analyses were conducted to assess program effects. Results: No beneficial program effects were found for any of the measures. Conclusion: The earlier beneficial program effects on both ADHD symptoms and social functioning reported by teachers, may be explained by a change in the perception of teachers rather than changes in the child’s behavior. Other methodological explanations are also discussed, such as differences between instruments in the sensitivity to program-related changes. The current study underlines the importance of using different measures of classroom behavior to study program effects. ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT02518711 PMID:28744244

Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

PubMed

Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

2016-07-20

The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides

26 CFR 1.15-1 - Changes in rate during a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... ending during 1976 constitutes a change in rate for such portion of the taxable year (if less than the... taxable years beginning on or after March 1, 1954, and changed again for taxable years beginning on or... began before March 1, 1954, and ended on or after June 1, 1954: One tentative tax at the rate in effect...

Implementation of Online Promethee Method for Poor Family Change Rate Calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aji, Dhady Lukito; Suryono; Widodo, Catur Edi

2018-02-01

This research has been done online calculation of the rate of poor family change rate by using Preference Ranking Method of Organization Of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) .This system is very useful to monitor poverty in a region as well as for administrative services related to poverty rate. The system consists of computer clients and servers connected via the internet network. Poor family residence data obtained from the government. In addition, survey data are inputted through the client computer in each administrative village and also 23 criteria of input in accordance with the established government. The PROMETHEE method is used to evaluate the value of poverty and its weight is used to determine poverty status. PROMETHEE output can also be used to rank the poverty of the registered population of the server based on the netflow value. The poverty rate is calculated based on the current poverty rate compared to the previous poverty rate. The rate results can be viewed online and real time on the server through numbers and graphs. From the test results can be seen that the system can classify poverty status, calculate the poverty rate change rate and can determine the value and poverty ranking of each population.

Within country inequalities in caesarean section rates: observational study of 72 low and middle income countries

PubMed Central

Boatin, Adeline Adwoa; Schlotheuber, Anne; Betran, Ana Pilar; Moller, Ann-Beth; Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Torloni, Maria Regina; Victora, Cesar G

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To provide an update on economic related inequalities in caesarean section rates within countries. Design Secondary analysis of demographic and health surveys and multiple indicator cluster surveys. Setting 72 low and middle income countries with a survey conducted between 2010 and 2014 for analysis of the latest situation of inequality, and 28 countries with a survey also conducted between 2000 and 2004 for analysis of the change in inequality over time. Participants Women aged 15-49 years with a live birth during the two or three years preceding the survey. Main outcome measures Data on caesarean section were disaggregated by asset based household wealth status and presented separately for five subgroups, ranging from the poorest to the richest fifth. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured using difference and ratio measures. The pace of change in the poorest and richest fifths was compared using a measure of excess change. Results National caesarean section rates ranged from 0.6% in South Sudan to 58.9% in the Dominican Republic. Within countries, caesarean section rates were lowest in the poorest fifth (median 3.7%) and highest in the richest fifth (median 18.4%). 18 out of 72 study countries reported a difference of 20 percentage points or higher between the richest and poorest fifth. The highest caesarean section rates and greatest levels of absolute inequality were observed in countries from the region of the Americas, whereas countries from the African region had low levels of caesarean use and comparatively lower levels of absolute inequality, although relative inequality was quite high in some countries. 26 out of 28 countries reported increases in caesarean section rates over time. Rates tended to increase faster in the richest fifth (median 0.9 percentage points per year) compared with the poorest fifth (median 0.2 percentage points per year), indicating an increase in inequality over time in most of these countries

Detecting the sampling rate through observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoji, Isao

2018-09-01

This paper proposes a method to detect the sampling rate of discrete time series of diffusion processes. Using the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a diffusion process, we establish a criterion based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and thereby estimate the sampling rate. Simulation studies are conducted to check whether the method can detect the sampling rates from data and their results show a good performance in the detection. In addition, the method is applied to a financial time series sampled on daily basis and shows the detected sampling rate is different from the conventional rates.

[Interpreting change scores of the Behavioural Rating Scale for Geriatric Inpatients (GIP)].

PubMed

Diesfeldt, H F A

2013-09-01

The Behavioural Rating Scale for Geriatric Inpatients (GIP) consists of fourteen, Rasch modelled subscales, each measuring different aspects of behavioural, cognitive and affective disturbances in elderly patients. Four additional measures are derived from the GIP: care dependency, apathy, cognition and affect. The objective of the study was to determine the reproducibility of the 18 measures. A convenience sample of 56 patients in psychogeriatric day care was assessed twice by the same observer (a professional caregiver). The median time interval between rating occasions was 45 days (interquartile range 34-58 days). Reproducibility was determined by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC agreement) for test-retest reliability. The minimal detectable difference (MDD) was calculated based on the standard error of measurement (SEM agreement). Test-retest reliability expressed by the ICCs varied from 0.57 (incoherent behaviour) to 0.93 (anxious behaviour). Standard errors of measurement varied from 0.28 (anxious behaviour) to 1.63 (care dependency). The results show how the GIP can be applied when interpreting individual change in psychogeriatric day care participants.

ESA's Earth Observation Programmes in the Changing Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebig, Volker

2016-07-01

The intervention will present ESA's Earth Observation programmes and their relevance to studying the anthropocene. ESA's Earth observation missions are mainly grouped into three categories: The Sentinel satellites in the context of the European Copernicus Programme, the scientific Earth Explorers and the meteorological missions. Developments, applications and scientific results for the different mission types will be addressed, along with overall trends and strategies. The Earth Explorers, who form the science and research element of ESA's Living Planet Programme, focus on the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and Earth's interior. The Earth Explorers also aim at learning more about the interactions between these components and the impact that human activity is having on natural Earth processes. The Sentinel missions provide accurate, timely, long term and uninterrupted data to provide key information services, improving the way the environment is managed, and helping to mitigate the effects of climate change. The operational Sentinel satellites can also be exploited for scientific studies of the anthropocene. In the anthropocene human activities affect the whole planet and space is a very efficient means to measure their impact, but for relevant endeavours to be successful they can only be carried out in international cooperation. ESA maintains long-standing partnerships with other space agencies and institutions worldwide. In running its Earth observation programmes, ESA responds to societal needs and challenges and to requirements resulting from political priorities set by decision makers. Activities related to Climate Change are a prime example. Within ESA's Climate Change Initiative, 13 Essential Climate Variables are constantly monitored to create a long-term record of key geophysical parameters.

Discrepancies between self and observer ratings of depression. The relationship to demographic, clinical and personality variables.

PubMed

Enns, M W; Larsen, D K; Cox, B J

2000-10-01

The observer-rated Hamilton depression scale (HamD) and the self-report Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are among the most commonly used rating scales for depression, and both have well demonstrated reliability and validity. However, many depressed subjects have discrepant scores on these two assessment methods. The present study evaluated the ability of demographic, clinical and personality factors to account for the discrepancies observed between BDI and HamD ratings. The study group consisted of 94 SCID-diagnosed outpatients with a current major depressive disorder. Subjects were rated with the 21-item HamD and completed the BDI and the NEO-Five Factor Inventory. Younger age, higher educational attainment, and depressive subtype (atypical, non-melancholic) were predictive of higher BDI scores relative to HamD observer ratings. In addition, high neuroticism, low extraversion and low agreeableness were associated with higher endorsement of depressive symptoms on the BDI relative to the HamD. In general, these predictive variables showed a greater ability to explain discrepancies between self and observer ratings of psychological symptoms of depression compared to somatic symptoms of depression. The study does not determine which aspects of neuroticism and extraversion contribute to the observed BDI/HamD discrepancies. Depression ratings obtained with the BDI and HamD are frequently discordant and a number of patient characteristics robustly predict the discrepancy between these two rating methods. The value of multi-modal assessment in the conduct of research on depressive disorders is re-affirmed.

Detecting When “Quality of Life” Has Been “Enhanced”: Estimating Change in Quality of Life Ratings

PubMed Central

Tractenberg, Rochelle E.; Yumoto, Futoshi; Aisen, Paul S.

2015-01-01

Objective To demonstrate challenges in the estimation of change in quality of life (QOL). Methods Data were taken from a completed clinical trial with negative results. Responses to 13 QOL items were obtained 12 months apart from 258 persons with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) participating in a randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial with two treatment arms. Two analyses to estimate whether “change” in QOL occurred over 12 months are described. A simple difference (later - earlier) was calculated from total scores (standard approach). A Qualified Change algorithm (novel approach) was applied to each item: differences in ratings were classified as either: improved, worsened, stayed poor, or stayed “positive” (fair, good, excellent). The strengths of evidence supporting a claim that “QOL changed”, derived from the two analyses, were compared by considering plausible alternative explanations for, and interpretations of, results obtained under each approach. Results Total score approach: QOL total scores decreased, on average, in the two treatment (both −1.0, p < 0.05), but not the placebo (=−0.59, p > 0.3) groups. Qualified change approach: Roughly 60% of all change in QOL items was worsening in every arm; 17% - 42% of all subjects experienced change in each item. Conclusions Totalling the subjective QOL item ratings collapses over items, and suggests a potentially misleading “overall” level of change (or no change, as in the placebo arm). Leaving the items as individual components of “quality” of life they were intended to capture, and qualifying the direction and amount of change in each, suggests that at least 17% of any group experienced change on every item, with 60% of all observed change being worsening. Discussion Summarizing QOL item ratings as a total “score” collapses over the face-valid, multi-dimensional components of the construct “quality of life”. Qualified Change provides robust evidence of changes to QOL or �

Change Observed in Martian Sand Dune

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-11-16

This animation flips back and forth between views taken in 2010 and 2014 of a Martian sand dune at the edge of Mount Sharp, documenting dune activity. The images are from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. They cover an area about 740 feet (about 225 meters) wide, showing a site called "Dune 2" in the "Bagnold Dunes" dune field. NASA's Curiosity Mars rover will observe this dune up close on the rover's route up Mount Sharp. North is toward the top. The edge of the dune at the crescent-shaped slip face on the south edge advances slightly during the four-year period between the dates of the images. Figure A is an annotated version with an arrow indicating the location of this change. The lighting angle is different in the two images, resulting in numerous changes in shadows. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20161

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate.

PubMed

Brazzale, Alessandra R; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Krügel, Stefanie; Schiergens, Tobias S; Trentzsch, Heiko; Hartl, Wolfgang

2018-04-05

We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a decreasing hazard rate before the change point. Our method is based on fitting a stump regression to p values for testing hazard rates in small time intervals. We present three real data examples describing survival patterns of severely ill patients, whose excess mortality rates are known to persist far beyond hospital discharge. For designing survival studies in these patients and for the definition of hospital performance metrics (e.g. mortality), it is essential to define adequate and objective end points. The reliable estimation of a change point will help researchers to identify such end points. By precisely knowing this change point, clinicians can distinguish between the acute phase with high hazard (time elapsed after admission and before the change point was reached), and the chronic phase (time elapsed after the change point) in which hazard is fairly constant. We show in an extensive simulation study that maximum likelihood estimation is not robust in this setting, and we evaluate our new estimation strategy including bootstrap confidence intervals and finite sample bias correction.

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance

PubMed Central

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Abstract Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3–0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach. PMID:27933165

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance.

PubMed

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3-0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach.

47 CFR 43.43 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... rates. 43.43 Section 43.43 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES (CONTINUED) REPORTS OF COMMUNICATION COMMON CARRIERS AND CERTAIN AFFILIATES § 43.43 Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. (a) Each communication common carrier with annual...

Development of a frequency-separated knob with variable change rates by rotation speed.

PubMed

Kim, Huhn; Ham, Dong-Han

2014-11-01

The principle of frequency separation is a design method to display different information or feedback in accordance with the frequency of interaction between users and systems. This principle can be usefully applied to the design of knobs. Particularly, their rotation speed can be a meaningful criterion for applying the principle. Hence a knob can be developed, which shows change rates varying depending on its rotation speed. Such a knob would be more efficient than conventional knobs with constant change rate. We developed a prototype of frequency-separated knobs that has different combinations of the number of rotation speed steps and the size of the variation of change rate. With this prototype, we conducted an experiment to examine whether a speed frequency-separated knob enhances users' task performance. The results showed that the newly designed knob was effective in enhancing task performance, and that task efficiency was the best when its change rate increases exponentially and its rotation speed has three steps. We conducted another experiment to investigate how a more rapid exponential increase of change rate and a more number of steps of rotation speed influence users' task performance. The results showed that merely increasing both the size of the variation of change rates and the number of speed steps did not result in better task performance. Although two experimental results cannot easily be generalized to other contexts, they still offer practical information useful for designing a speed frequency-separated knob in various consumer electronics and control panels of industrial systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Temperature-Dependent Growth and Fission Rate Plasticity Drive Seasonal and Geographic Changes in Body Size in a Clonal Sea Anemone.

PubMed

Ryan, Will H

2018-02-01

The temperature-size rule is a commonly observed pattern where adult body size is negatively correlated with developmental temperature. In part, this may occur as a consequence of allometric scaling, where changes in the ratio of surface area to mass limit oxygen diffusion as body size increases. As oxygen demand increases with temperature, a smaller body should be favored as temperature increases. For clonal animals, small changes in growth and/or fission rate can rapidly alter the average body size of clonal descendants. Here I test the hypothesis that the clonal sea anemone Diadumene lineata is able to track an optimal body size through seasonal temperature changes using fission rate plasticity. Individuals from three regions (Florida, Georgia, and Massachusetts) across the species' latitudinal range were grown in a year-long reciprocal common garden experiment mimicking seasonal temperature changes at three sites. Average body size was found to be smaller and fission rates higher in warmer conditions, consistent with the temperature-size rule pattern. However, seasonal size and fission patterns reflect a complex interaction between region-specific thermal reaction norms and the local temperature regime. These details provide insight into both the range of conditions required for oxygen limitation to contribute to a negative correlation between body size and temperature and the role that fission rate plasticity can play in tracking a rapidly changing optimal phenotype.

Assessment of the endogenous respiration rate and the observed biomass yield for methanol-fed denitrifying bacteria under anoxic and aerobic conditions.

PubMed

Alikhani, Jamal; Al-Omari, Ahmed; De Clippeleir, Haydee; Murthy, Sudhir; Takacs, Imre; Massoudieh, Arash

2017-01-01

In this study, the endogenous respiration rate and the observed biomass yield of denitrifying methylotrophic biomass were estimated through measuring changes in denitrification rates (DNR) as a result of maintaining the biomass under methanol deprived conditions. For this purpose, activated sludge biomass from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant was kept in 10-L batch reactors for 8 days under fully aerobic and anoxic conditions at 20 °C without methanol addition. To investigate temperature effects, another biomass sample was placed under starvation conditions over a period of 10 days under aerobic conditions at 25 °C. A series of secondary batch tests were conducted to measure DNR and observed biomass yields. The decline in DNR over the starvation period was used as a surrogate to biomass decay rate in order to infer the endogenous respiration rates of the methylotrophs. The regression analysis on the declining DNR data shows 95% confidence intervals of 0.130 ± 0.017 day -1 for endogenous respiration rate under aerobic conditions at 20 °C, 0.102 ± 0.013 day -1 under anoxic conditions at 20 °C, and 0.214 ± 0.044 day -1 under aerobic conditions at 25 °C. Results indicated that the endogenous respiration rate of methylotrophs is 20% slower under anoxic conditions than under aerobic conditions, and there is a significant temperature dependency, with an Arrhenius coefficient of 1.10. The observed biomass yield value showed an increasing trend from approximately 0.2 to 0.6 when the starvation time increased from 0 to 10 days.

Rates of retinal nerve fibre layer thickness change in glaucoma patients and control subjects

PubMed Central

O'Leary, N; Artes, P H; Hutchison, D M; Nicolela, M T; Chauhan, B C

2012-01-01

Purpose To examine the rates of retinal nerve fibre layer thickness (RNFLT) change in glaucoma patients and healthy, age-similar control subjects with three techniques: scanning laser polarimetry with variable corneal compensation (VCC) and enhanced corneal compensation (ECC), and time-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT). Methods Sixty-one patients and thirty-three controls were examined with each technique and with standard automated perimetry (SAP) every 6 months. Rates of global RNFLT change and SAP mean deviation (MD) change were estimated with linear mixed-effects models. Results The median (interquartile range) baseline age was 64.4 (58.2, 71.0) years for patients and 62.4 (56.3, 70.1) years for controls (P=0.56). There was a median of seven examinations over 3.1 years for patients and six examinations in 3.0 years for controls. Baseline visual field MD and RNFLT for all imaging modalities were significantly lower (P<0.01) in patients compared with controls. Rates of RNFLT change were not significantly different between patients and controls (P≥0.19). Mean rates of VCC-measured RNFLT change were −0.18 and −0.37 μm per year in patients and controls, whereas the respective figures for ECC and OCT were −0.13 and −0.31 μm per year, and 0.04 and 0.61 μm per year. Mean rates of MD change were −0.20 and 0.03 dB per year in patients and controls, respectively (P=0.01). Conclusion Rates of RNFLT change in glaucoma patients were not statistically different from control subjects for any modality. A significantly negative rate of MD change in patients suggests a genuine, continued deterioration in these patients not reflected by RNFLT changes. PMID:23079756

Win some, lose some: parental hypertension and heart rate change in an incentive versus response cost paradigm.

PubMed

Hastrup, J L; Johnson, C A; Hotchkiss, A P; Kraemer, D L

1986-11-01

Fowles (1983), citing evidence from separate studies, suggests that both incentive and response cost paradigms increase heart rate and should be subsumed under Gray's (1975) 'appetitive motivational system'. Shock avoidance and loss of reward (response cost) contingencies, while aversive, appear to evoke this motivational system; consequently both should elicit heart rate increases independent of anxiety. The present investigation compared magnitude of heart rate changes observed under conditions of winning and losing money. Results showed: no differences between incentive and response cost conditions; no effect of state anxiety on heart rate in these conditions, despite an elevation of state anxiety on the task day relative to a subsequent relaxation day assessment; and some evidence for the presence under both such appetitive conditions of cardiovascular hyperresponsivity among offspring of hypertensive parents. The results suggest a need for systematic parametric studies of experimental conditions.

Supermassive Black Holes with High Accretion Rates in Active Galactic Nuclei. IX. 10 New Observations of Reverberation Mapping and Shortened Hβ Lags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Pu; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang; Wang, Kai; Huang, Ying-Ke; Zhang, Yue; Lu, Kai-Xing; Hu, Chen; Li, Yan-Rong; Bai, Jin-Ming; Bian, Wei-Hao; Yuan, Ye-Fei; Ho, Luis C.; Wang, Jian-Min; SEAMBH collaboration

2018-03-01

As one paper in a series reporting on a large reverberation mapping campaign of super-Eddington accreting massive black holes (SEAMBHs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we present the results of 10 SEAMBHs monitored spectroscopically during 2015–2017. Six of them are observed for the first time, and have generally higher 5100 Å luminosities than the SEAMBHs monitored in our campaign from 2012 to 2015; the remaining four are repeat observations to check if their previous lags change. Similar to the previous SEAMBHs, the Hβ time lags of the newly observed objects are shorter than the values predicted by the canonical R Hβ –L 5100 relation of sub-Eddington AGNs, by factors of ∼2–6, depending on the accretion rate. The four previously observed objects have lags consistent with previous measurements. We provide linear regressions for the R Hβ –L 5100 relation, solely for the SEAMBH sample and for low-accretion AGNs. We find that the relative strength of Fe II and the profile of the Hβ emission line can be used as proxies of accretion rate, showing that the shortening of Hβ lags depends on accretion rates. The recent SDSS-RM discovery of shortened Hβ lags in AGNs with low accretion rates provides compelling evidence for retrograde accretion onto the black hole. These evidences show that the canonical R Hβ –L 5100 relation holds only in AGNs with moderate accretion rates. At low accretion rates, it should be revised to include the effects of black hole spin, whereas the accretion rate itself becomes a key factor in the regime of high accretion rates.

Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

PubMed

Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

2016-01-01

Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The assessment of cognitive errors using an observer-rated method.

PubMed

Drapeau, Martin

2014-01-01

Cognitive Errors (CEs) are a key construct in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Integral to CBT is that individuals with depression process information in an overly negative or biased way, and that this bias is reflected in specific depressotypic CEs which are distinct from normal information processing. Despite the importance of this construct in CBT theory, practice, and research, few methods are available to researchers and clinicians to reliably identify CEs as they occur. In this paper, the author presents a rating system, the Cognitive Error Rating Scale, which can be used by trained observers to identify and assess the cognitive errors of patients or research participants in vivo, i.e., as they are used or reported by the patients or participants. The method is described, including some of the more important rating conventions to be considered when using the method. This paper also describes the 15 cognitive errors assessed, and the different summary scores, including valence of the CEs, that can be derived from the method.

Does the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change Help Moving Forward in Measuring Change in Early Autism Intervention Studies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pijl, Mirjam K. J.; Rommelse, Nanda N. J.; Hendriks, Monica; De Korte, Manon W. P.; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Oosterling, Iris J.

2018-01-01

The field of early autism research is in dire need of outcome measures that adequately reflect subtle changes in core autistic behaviors. This article compares the ability of a newly developed measure, the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change (BOSCC), and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) to detect changes in core…

Will Changes to Medicare Payment Rates Alter Hospice's Cost-Saving Ability?

PubMed

Taylor, Donald H; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Bull, Janet H; Kassner, Cordt T; Olson, Andrew; Boucher, Nathan A

2018-05-01

On January 1, 2016, Medicare implemented a new "two-tiered" model for hospice services, with per diem rates increased for days 1 through 60, decreased for days 61 and greater, and service intensity add-on payments made retrospectively for the last seven days of life. To estimate whether the Medicare hospice benefit's potential for cost savings will change as a result of the January 2016 change in payment structure. Analysis of decedents' claims records using propensity score matching, logistic regression, and sensitivity analysis. All age-eligible Medicare decedents who received care and died in North Carolina in calendar years 2009 and 2010. Costs to Medicare for hospice and other healthcare services. Medicare costs were reduced from hospice election until death using both 2009-2010 and new 2016 payment structures and rates. Mean cost savings were $1,527 with actual payment rates, and would have been $2,105 with the new payment rates (p < 0.001). Cost savings were confirmed by reducing the number of days used for cost comparison by three days for those with hospice stays of at least four days ($4,318 using 2009-2010 rates, $3,138 for 2016 rates: p < 0.001). Cost savings were greater for males ($3,393) versus females ($1,051) and greatest in cancer ($6,706) followed by debility and failure to thrive ($5,636) and congestive heart failure ($1,309); dementia patients had higher costs (+$1,880) (p < 0.001). When adding 3 days to the comparison period, hospice increased costs to Medicare. Medicare savings could continue with the 2016 payment rate change. Cost savings were found for all primary diagnoses analyzed except dementia.

A record of change - Science and elder observations on the Navajo Nation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hiza-Redsteer, Margaret M.; Wessells, Stephen M.

2017-09-20

A Record of Change - Science and Elder Observations on the Navajo Nation is a 25-minute documentary about combining observations from Navajo elders with conventional science to determine how tribal lands and culture are affected by climate change. On the Navajo Nation, there is a shortage of historical climate data, making it difficult to assess changing environmental conditions.This video reveals how a team of scientists, anthropologists, and translators combined the rich local knowledge of Navajo elders with recent scientific investigation to effectively document environmental change. Increasing aridity and declining snowfall in this poorly monitored region of the Southwest are accompanied by declining river flow and migrating sand dunes. The observations of Navajo elders verify and supplement this record of change by informing how shifting weather patterns are reflected in Navajo cultural practices and living conditions.

[Changes in heart rate variability after myocardial infarction. Value of Poincareé's diagram].

PubMed

Copie, X; Le Heuzey, J Y; Iliou, M C; Pousset, F; Lavergne, T; Guize, L

1995-11-01

The variability of the heart rate is reduced after myocardial infarction. It then progressively increases, to return to near normal values after several months. However, these changes in heart rate variability occur at the same time as slowing of the heart rate which makes interpretation difficult. Poincaré's diagram is constructed from a Holter recording plotting each RR interval against the preceding RR interval. The authors have developed a geometric approach to this diagram to evaluate parasympathetic tone for a given heart rate. By measuring the dispersion in height of the Poincaré's diagram, the authors evaluate the shor-term variability for a given RR interval. Two 24 hr Holter recordings were performed in 52 patients at one and two weeks after a myocardial infarction. The dispersion in the height of the Poincaré's diagrams was measured at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the total dispersion. The authors have shown an increase in the short-term variability of the shortest RR intervals (1th, 25th and 50th percentiles) which is not observed in the longer RR intervals (75th and 90th percentiles). In conclusion, theres is an increase in the heart rate variability at the shortest RR intervals. This suggests that the recovery of parasympathic tone after myocardial infarction occurs mainly at the fastest heart rates.

Microwave brightness temperature features of lunar craters: observation from Chang'E-1 mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Guo-Ping; Chen, Ke; Guo, Wei; Li, Qing-Xia; Su, Hong-Yan

2013-01-01

Topographic features of lunar craters have been found from the brightness temperature (TB) observed by the multichannel (3.0, 7.8, 19.35, and 37 GHz) microwave radiometer (MRM) aboard Chang'E-1 (CE-1) in a single track view. As the topographic effect is more obvious at 37 GHz, 37 GHz TB has been focused on in this work. The variation of 37 GHz daytime (nighttime) TB along the profile of a crater is found to show an oscillatory behavior. The amplitude of daytime TB is significantly affected by the observation time and the shape of the crater, whose diameter is bigger than the spatial resolution of MRM onboard CE-1. The large and typical diurnal TB difference (nighttime TB minus daytime TB) at 37 GHz over selected young craters due to the large rock abundance in craters, have been discussed and compared with the altitude profile.

Analytical Incorporation of Velocity Parameters into Ice Sheet Elevation Change Rate Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagarajan, S.; Ahn, Y.; Teegavarapu, R. S. V.

2014-12-01

NASA, ESA and various other agencies have been collecting laser, optical and RADAR altimetry data through various missions to study the elevation changes of the Cryosphere. The laser altimetry collected by various airborne and spaceborne missions provides multi-temporal coverage of Greenland and Antarctica since 1993 to now. Though these missions have increased the data coverage, considering the dynamic nature of the ice surface, it is still sparse both spatially and temporally for accurate elevation change detection studies. The temporal and spatial gaps are usually filled by interpolation techniques. This presentation will demonstrate a method to improve the temporal interpolation. Considering the accuracy, repeat coverage and spatial distribution, the laser scanning data has been widely used to compute elevation change rate of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. A major problem with these approaches is non-consideration of ice sheet velocity dynamics into change rate computations. Though the correlation between velocity and elevation change rate have been noticed by Hurkmans et al., 2012, the corrections for velocity changes were applied after computing elevation change rates by assuming linear or higher polynomial relationship. This research will discuss the possibilities of parameterizing ice sheet dynamics as unknowns (dX and dY) in the adjustment mathematical model that computes elevation change (dZ) rates. It is a simultaneous computation of changes in all three directions of the ice surface. Also, the laser points between two time epochs in a crossover area have different distribution and count. Therefore, a registration method that does not require point-to-point correspondence is required to recover the unknown elevation and velocity parameters. This research will experiment the possibilities of registering multi-temporal datasets using volume minimization algorithm, which determines the unknown dX, dY and dZ that minimizes the volume between two or

In situ characterization of charge rate dependent stress and structure changes in V2O5 cathode prepared by atomic layer deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Hyun; Gerasopoulos, Konstantinos; Talin, A. Alec; Ghodssi, Reza

2017-02-01

The insertion/extraction of lithium into/from various host materials is the basic process by which lithium-ion batteries reversible store charge. This process is generally accompanied by strain in the host material, inducing stress which can lead to capacity loss. Therefore, understanding of both the structural changes and the associated stress - investigated almost exclusively separate to date - is a critical factor for developing high-performance batteries. Here, we report an in situ method, which utilizes Raman spectroscopy in parallel with optical interferometry to study effects of varying charging rates (C-rates) on the structure and stress in a V2O5 thin film cathode. Abrupt stress changes at specific crystal phase transitions in the Lisbnd Vsbnd O system are observed and the magnitude of the stress changes with the amount of lithium inserted into the electrode are correlated. A linear increase in the stress as a function of x in LixV2O5 is observed, indicating that C-rate does not directly contribute to larger intercalation stress. However, a more rapid increase in disorder within the LixV2O5 layers is correlated with higher C-rate. Ultimately, these experiments demonstrate how the simultaneous stress/Raman in situ approach can be utilized as a characterization platform for investigating various critical factors affecting lithium-ion battery performance.

Gravity observation data analysis 1988 -1998 - 2011 to determine gravity changes of Merapi volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indriana, R. D.; Kirbani, S. B.; Setiawan, A.; Sunantyo, T. A.

2018-03-01

The big eruption of Merapi Volcano in 2010 resulted in a Merapi-type eruption being a phreatic type that is thought to be the result of subsurface changes. The study of gravitational gravity change in observational data of gravity observation in 1988, 1998, 2011 was conducted to determine the sub-surface changes of Merapi pre and post-eruption of 2010. The research data consisted of primary and secondary gravity data provided by Geophysics Laboratory Department of Physics Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta consisted of g observation data in 1988, 1998, 2011 and Data Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The result of this study is the relative terrestrial g_observation of 1998-1988 around the peak of Merapi is - 85 s.d. 70 mgal, in the northwest and north of the peak is -15 s.d. - 55 mgal, east and west worth 5 s.d. 15 mgal and south of peak anomaly change is -5 s.d. 0 mgal. The relative gestation of the relative terrestrial observations of 2011 on relative terrestrial g_observation in 1998 showed changes in patterns around the peak of Merapi. The value of terrestrial observation g relative changes 2011-1998. The relative value of terrestrial g_observation change is -85 s.d. 70 mgal, northwest -5 s.d. - 20 mgal, east and west peaks 0 s.d. 10 mgal, in the southern peak of Merapi there is an anomaly value change -5 s.d. -50 mgal. The pattern of contour change has been compatible with the Merapi eruption mass distribution map 1911 s.d. 2006 and DEM changes.

Using the brief observation of social communication change (BOSCC) to measure autism-specific development.

PubMed

Kitzerow, Janina; Teufel, Karoline; Wilker, Christian; Freitag, Christine M

2016-09-01

To date no reliable and objective, change sensitive instrument for autistic symptoms is available. The brief observation of social communication change (BOSCC) was specifically developed to measure change of core autistic symptoms, for example, for use as outcome measure in early intervention trials. This study investigated quality criteria of a preliminary research version of the BOSCC in N = 21 children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who had participated for 1 year in the Frankfurt early intervention program (FFIP). BOSCC rating was done on play based ADOS video scenes. Inter-rater agreement on the BOSCC average total was very high. The BOSCC showed a significant decrease of autistic symptoms after 1 year with a medium effect size. Symptom specific improvements were captured by the social communication subscale and most single items. The BOSCC showed comparable change sensitivity to other autism specific instruments. Future studies should focus on the finalized BOSCC version, and replicate findings in a larger sample. Autism Res 2016, 9: 940-950. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

PubMed Central

Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

An observation of lower rates of drug use over time in community syringe exchangers.

PubMed

Kidorf, Michael; King, Van L; Peirce, Jessica; Kolodner, Ken; Brooner, Robert K

2013-01-01

The present study evaluated changes in rates of self-reported heroin and cocaine use in opioid-dependent individuals newly registered to a syringe exchange program (SEP), and examined the effects of recovery-oriented longitudinal variables (i.e., substance abuse treatment, self-help group participation, employment) on changes in drug use. Study participants (n = 240) were opioid-dependent and drawn from a larger study evaluating strategies to improve treatment-seeking. Mixed model analyses were used to evaluate changes in rates of heroin and cocaine use, and longitudinal correlates of change in these substances, over a one-year period. Results showed reductions in days of heroin and cocaine use over time, and that participation in recovery-oriented activities was strongly associated with greater changes in drug use. These results suggest SEPs can play a vital role in facilitating reductions in drug use through motivating participation in treatment and other recovery-oriented activities. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Do Case Rates Affect Physicians' Clinical Practice in Radiation Oncology?: An Observational Study

PubMed Central

Loy, Bryan A.; Shkedy, Clive I.; Powell, Adam C.; Happe, Laura E.; Royalty, Julie A.; Miao, Michael T.; Smith, Gary L.; Long, James W.; Gupta, Amit K.

2016-01-01

Case rate payments combined with utilization monitoring may have the potential to improve the quality of care by reducing over and under-treatment. Thus, a national managed care organization introduced case rate payments at one multi-site radiation oncology provider while maintaining only fee-for-service payments at others. This study examined whether the introduction of the payment method had an effect on radiation fractions administered when compared to clinical guidelines. The number of fractions of radiation therapy delivered to patients with bone metastases, breast, lung, prostate, and skin cancer was assessed for concordance with clinical guidelines. The proportion of guideline-based care ascertained from the payer's claims database was compared before (2011) and after (2013) the payment method introduction using relative risks (RR). After the introduction of case rates, there were no significant changes in guideline-based care in breast, lung, and skin cancer; however, patients with bone metastases and prostate cancer were significantly more likely to have received guideline-based care (RR = 2.0 and 1.1, respectively, p<0.05). For the aggregate of all cancers, the under-treatment rate significantly declined (p = 0.008) from 4% to 0% after the introduction of case rate payments, while the over-treatment rate remained steady at 9%, with no significant change (p = 0.20). These findings suggest that the introduction of case rate payments did not adversely affect the rate of guideline-based care at the provider examined. Additional research is needed to isolate the effect of the payment model and assess implications in other populations. PMID:26870963

Do Case Rates Affect Physicians' Clinical Practice in Radiation Oncology?: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Loy, Bryan A; Shkedy, Clive I; Powell, Adam C; Happe, Laura E; Royalty, Julie A; Miao, Michael T; Smith, Gary L; Long, James W; Gupta, Amit K

2016-01-01

Case rate payments combined with utilization monitoring may have the potential to improve the quality of care by reducing over and under-treatment. Thus, a national managed care organization introduced case rate payments at one multi-site radiation oncology provider while maintaining only fee-for-service payments at others. This study examined whether the introduction of the payment method had an effect on radiation fractions administered when compared to clinical guidelines. The number of fractions of radiation therapy delivered to patients with bone metastases, breast, lung, prostate, and skin cancer was assessed for concordance with clinical guidelines. The proportion of guideline-based care ascertained from the payer's claims database was compared before (2011) and after (2013) the payment method introduction using relative risks (RR). After the introduction of case rates, there were no significant changes in guideline-based care in breast, lung, and skin cancer; however, patients with bone metastases and prostate cancer were significantly more likely to have received guideline-based care (RR = 2.0 and 1.1, respectively, p<0.05). For the aggregate of all cancers, the under-treatment rate significantly declined (p = 0.008) from 4% to 0% after the introduction of case rate payments, while the over-treatment rate remained steady at 9%, with no significant change (p = 0.20). These findings suggest that the introduction of case rate payments did not adversely affect the rate of guideline-based care at the provider examined. Additional research is needed to isolate the effect of the payment model and assess implications in other populations.

Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-08-01

The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

Predicting progression of glaucoma from rates of frequency doubling technology perimetry change.

PubMed

Meira-Freitas, Daniel; Tatham, Andrew J; Lisboa, Renato; Kuang, Tung-Mei; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Girkin, Christopher A; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Medeiros, Felipe A

2014-02-01

To evaluate the ability of longitudinal frequency doubling technology (FDT) to predict the development of glaucomatous visual field loss on standard automated perimetry (SAP) in glaucoma suspects. Prospective, observational cohort study. The study included 587 eyes of 367 patients with suspected glaucoma at baseline selected from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study (ADAGES). These eyes had an average of 6.7 ± 1.9 FDT tests during a mean follow-up time of 73.1 ± 28.0 months. Glaucoma suspects had intraocular pressure (IOP) >21 mmHg or an optic disc appearance suspicious of glaucoma. All patients had normal or nonrepeatable abnormal SAP at baseline. Humphrey Matrix FDT (Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, CA) testing was performed within 6 months of SAP testing. The study end point was the development of 3 consecutive abnormal SAP test results. Joint longitudinal survival models were used to evaluate the ability of rates of FDT pattern standard deviation (PSD) change to predict the development of visual field loss on SAP, adjusting for confounding variables (baseline age, mean IOP, corneal thickness, and follow-up measurements of SAP PSD). The R(2) index was used to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of the model containing longitudinal FDT PSD data with the model containing only baseline data. Sixty-three of 587 eyes (11%) developed SAP visual field loss during follow-up. The mean rate of FDT PSD change in eyes that developed SAP visual field loss was 0.07 dB/year versus 0.02 dB/year in those that did not (P < 0.001). Baseline FDT PSD and slopes of FDT PSD change were significantly predictive of progression, with hazard ratios of 1.11 per 0.1 dB higher (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002) and 4.40 per 0.1 dB/year faster (95% CI, 1.08-17.96; P = 0.04), respectively. The longitudinal model performed significantly better than the baseline model with an R(2) of 82% (95% CI

TRACE Observations of Changes in Coronal Hole Boundaries

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-13

predominate SXT •3 sP nngcr TRACK Observations of Changes in Coronal Hole Boundaries 145 active regions in CHs appear as anemone , characterized by a radial...array of loops formed by connections between the CH fields and the opposite polarity part of the active region. The anemone active regions are

Inconsistencies in patient perceptions and observer ratings of shared decision making: the case of colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Tracy; Cooper, Gregory; Divine, George; Flocke, Susan; Oja-Tebbe, Nancy; Stange, Kurt; Lafata, Jennifer Elston

2010-09-01

To compare patient-reported and observer-rated shared decision making (SDM) use for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and evaluate patient, physician and patient-reported relational communication factors associated with patient-reported use of shared CRC screening decisions. Study physicians are salaried primary care providers. Patients are insured, aged 50-80 and due for CRC screening. Audio-recordings from 363 primary care visits were observer-coded for elements of SDM. A post-visit patient survey assessed patient-reported decision-making processes and relational communication during visit. Association of patient-reported SDM with observer-rated elements of SDM, as well as patient, physician and relational communication factors were evaluated using generalized estimating equations. 70% of patients preferred SDM for preventive health decisions, 47% of patients reported use of a SDM process, and only one of the screening discussions included all four elements of SDM per observer ratings. Patient report of SDM use was not associated with observer-rated elements of SDM, but was significantly associated with female physician gender and patient-reported relational communication. Inconsistencies exist between patient reports and observer ratings of SDM for CRC screening. Future studies are needed to understand whether SDM that is patient-reported, observer-rated or both are associated with informed and value-concordant CRC screening decisions. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inconsistencies in Patient Perceptions and Observer Ratings of Shared Decision Making: The Case of Colorectal Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Tracy; Cooper, Gregory; Divine, George; Flocke, Susan; Oja-Tebbe, Nancy; Stange, Kurt; Lafata, Jennifer Elston

2010-01-01

Objective To compare patient-reported and observer-rated shared decision making (SDM) use for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and evaluate patient, physician and patient-reported relational communication factors associated with patient-reported use of shared CRC screening decisions. Methods Study physicians are salaried primary care providers. Patients are insured, aged 50-80 and due for CRC screening. Audio-recordings from 363 primary care visits were observer-coded for elements of SDM. A post-visit patient survey assessed patient-reported decision-making processes and relational communication during visit. Association of patient-reported SDM with observer-rated elements of SDM, as well as patient, physician and relational communication factors were evaluated using generalized estimating equations. Results 70% of patients preferred SDM for preventive health decisions, 47% of patients reported use of a SDM process, and only one of the screening discussions included all four elements of SDM per observer ratings. Patient report of SDM use was not associated with observer-rated elements of SDM, but was significantly associated with female physician gender and patient-reported relational communication. Conclusion Inconsistencies exist between patient reports and observer ratings of SDM for CRC screening. Practice Implications Future studies are needed to understand whether SDM that is patient-reported, observer-rated or both are associated with informed and value-concordant CRC screening decisions. PMID:20667678

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

Diurnal changes in net uptake rate of nitrate are associated with changes in estimated export of carbohydrates to roots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rideout, J. W.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The rate of NO3- uptake by soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merrill) roots generally declines during the night in association with progressive depletion of the nonstructural carbohydrate pool in the shoot as well as the concentration of carbohydrates in roots. To determine if NO3- uptake rate changes in response to variations in translocation rate of carbohydrates from shoot to roots per se or to carbohydrate status of the roots, the night period was interrupted with a low light level from incandescent lamps to alter the diurnal pattern of NO3- uptake by roots and export of carbohydrate from shoots of nonnodulated soybean. Depletion of NO3- from replenished, complete nutrient solutions containing 1 mM NO3- was measured by ion chromatography and rates of NO3- uptake were calculated. Changes in export of carbohydrates from shoot to roots during intervals of the night period were calculated as the differences between rates of disappearance in contents of nonstructural carbohydrates and their estimated rates of utilization in shoot respiration and growth. A positive, significant correlation occurred between changes in calculated rates of carbohydrate export from shoots and NO3- uptake rates. Conversely, there was no significant correlation between concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates in roots and NO3- uptake rates. These results support the hypothesis that carbohydrate flux from shoot to roots has a direct role in regulation of nitrogen uptake by the whole plant.

Change in heat capacity for enzyme catalysis determines temperature dependence of enzyme catalyzed rates.

PubMed

Hobbs, Joanne K; Jiao, Wanting; Easter, Ashley D; Parker, Emily J; Schipper, Louis A; Arcus, Vickery L

2013-11-15

The increase in enzymatic rates with temperature up to an optimum temperature (Topt) is widely attributed to classical Arrhenius behavior, with the decrease in enzymatic rates above Topt ascribed to protein denaturation and/or aggregation. This account persists despite many investigators noting that denaturation is insufficient to explain the decline in enzymatic rates above Topt. Here we show that it is the change in heat capacity associated with enzyme catalysis (ΔC(‡)p) and its effect on the temperature dependence of ΔG(‡) that determines the temperature dependence of enzyme activity. Through mutagenesis, we demonstrate that the Topt of an enzyme is correlated with ΔC(‡)p and that changes to ΔC(‡)p are sufficient to change Topt without affecting the catalytic rate. Furthermore, using X-ray crystallography and molecular dynamics simulations we reveal the molecular details underpinning these changes in ΔC(‡)p. The influence of ΔC(‡)p on enzymatic rates has implications for the temperature dependence of biological rates from enzymes to ecosystems.

User-relevant, threshold-specific observations of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, Dave; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2014-05-01

Users of climate information look for details of changing climate at local scales (to inform specific activities) and on the geographical patterns of such changes (to prioritise adaptation investments). They often have user-specific thresholds of vulnerability so the changes of interest must refer to such thresholds or to the related quantile of the climatic distribution. A method for providing such information from timeseries of temperature data has recently been published [1] along with maps of changes at thresholds and quantiles [2] derived from the European Observational dataset E-Obs [3]. In this presentation we will do two things. First we will discuss the opportunities to tailor such methods to provide user-specific information through climate services, using illustrations from the existing methodology applied to daily maximum and minimum temperatures [1,2]. Second we will present new results on threshold specific observed changes in precipitation. The methodology for precipitation is related to that which has been applied to temperature but has been developed to handle the characteristics of precipitation distributions. The results identify some regions with systematic increases in precipitation on the seasonally wettest days and others which show drying across all days, on a seasonal basis. We will present the geographic locations and precipitation thresholds where strong signals of changes are seen across Europe. The coherency of such results and the methodology used to process the observational data will be discussed. We will also highlight the justifications for having confidence in the results in some regions and at some thresholds while having a lack of confidence in others. Such information should be an important element of any climate services. It is worth noting that here "wettest days" refers to events which are uncommon within a season (e.g. one in ~20 wet days). This is in contrast and complementary to, for instance, the one in a hundred year

Maternal positioning affects fetal heart rate changes after epidural analgesia for labour.

PubMed

Preston, R; Crosby, E T; Kotarba, D; Dudas, H; Elliott, R D

1993-12-01

Adverse fetal heart rate (FHR) changes suggestive of fetal hypoxia are seen in patients with normal term pregnancies after initiation of epidural block for labour analgesia. It was our hypothesis that, in some parturients, these changes were a consequence of concealed aortocaval compression resulting in decreased uterine blood flow. We expected that the full lateral position compared with the wedged supine position would provide more effective prophylaxis against aortocaval compression. To test our hypothesis we studied the role of maternal positioning on FHR changes during onset of epidural analgesia for labour. Eighty-eight ASA Class I or II term parturients were randomized into two groups: those to be nursed in the wedged supine position and those to be nursed in the full lateral position during induction of an epidural block. External FHR monitoring was employed to assess the fetal response to initiation of labour epidural analgesia. Epidural catheters were sited with the parturients in the sitting position and the patients then assumed the study position. After a negative test dose, a standardized regimen of bupivacaine 0.25% was employed to provide labour analgesia. The quality and efficacy of the block were assessed using VAS pain scores, motor block scores and sensory levels. The results demonstrated that there was no difference in the quality of analgesia provided nor in the incidence of asymmetric blocks. There was no difference in the observed incidence of FHR changes occurring during the initiation of the epidural block.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Observations During GRIP from HIRAD: Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy L.; James, M. W.; Jones, L.; Ruf, C. S.; Uhlhorn, E. W.; Bailey, M. C.; Buckley, C. D.; Simmons, D. E.; Johnstone, S.; Peterson, A.;

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Gill, B S; Mincham, G; Mohd Zaki, A H; Abdullah, N; Mahiyuddin, W R W; Ahmad, R; Shahar, M K; Harley, D; Viennet, E; Azil, A; Kamaluddin, A

2015-10-01

We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

The 2009-2010 MU radar head echo observation programme for sporadic and shower meteors: radiant densities and diurnal rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kero, J.; Szasz, C.; Nakamura, T.; Meisel, D. D.; Ueda, M.; Fujiwara, Y.; Terasawa, T.; Nishimura, K.; Watanabe, J.

2012-09-01

The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the monthly meteor head echo observations (528.8 h) conducted between 2009 June and 2010 December using the Shigaraki Middle and Upper atmosphere radar in Japan (34°.85 N, 136°.10 E). We present diurnal detection rates and radiant density plots from 18 separate observational campaigns, each lasting for at least one diurnal cycle. Our data comprise more than 106 000 meteors. All six recognized apparent sporadic meteor sources are discernable and their average orbital distributions are presented in terms of geocentric velocity, semimajor axis, inclination and eccentricity. The north and south apex have radiant densities an order of magnitude higher than other apparent source regions. The diurnal detection rates show clear seasonal dependence. The main cause of the seasonal variation is the tilt of the Earth's axis, causing the elevation of the Earth's apex above the local horizon to change as the Earth revolves around the Sun. Yet, the meteor rate variation is not symmetric with respect to the equinoxes. When comparing the radiant density at different times of the year, and thus at different solar longitudes along the Earth's orbit, we have found that the north and south apex source regions fluctuate in strength.

75 FR 82066 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-29

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a...

78 FR 16706 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-18

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a...

76 FR 73674 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-29

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a...

75 FR 8106 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a...

Mars Exploration Rover Field Observations of Impact Craters at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum and Implications for Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golombek, M.; Grant, J. A.; Crumpler, L. S.

2005-01-01

The Mars Exploration Rovers have provided a field geologist's perspective of impact craters in various states of degradation along their traverses at Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum. This abstract will describe the craters observed and changes to the craters that constrain the erosion rates and the climate [l]. Changes to craters on the plains of Gusev argue for a dry and desiccating environment since the Late Hesperian in contrast to the wet and likely warm environment in the Late Noachian at Meridiani in which the sulfate evaporites were deposited in salt-water playas or sabkhas.

Explaining Changing Suicide Rates in Norway 1948-2004: The Role of Social Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barstad, Anders

2008-01-01

Using Norway 1948-2004 as a case, I test whether changes in variables related to social integration can explain changes in suicide rates. The method is the Box-Jenkins approach to time-series analysis. Different aspects of family integration contribute significantly to the explanation of Norwegian suicide rates in this period. The estimated effect…

A Change in Seasons: Increasing Student Observation Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling, Donna R.

2006-01-01

Using the seasons in the science classroom increases student observation skills as they focus on subtle differences such as shades of color and differences in structures. In this article, the author presents a variety of activities that can help students identify and demonstrate patterns and changes in leaf or plant development. The ability to…

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

2014-05-01

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

Changes in suicide rates in disaster-stricken areas following the Great East Japan Earthquake and their effect on economic factors: an ecological study.

PubMed

Orui, Masatsugu; Harada, Shuichiro; Hayashi, Mizuho

2014-11-01

Devastating disasters may increase suicide rates due to mental distress. Previous domestic studies have reported decreased suicide rates among men following disasters. Few reports are available regarding factors associated with disasters, making it difficult to discuss how these events affect suicide rates. This study aimed to observe changes in suicide rates in disaster-stricken and neighboring areas following the Great East Japan Earthquake, and examine associations between suicide rates and economic factors. Monthly suicide rates were observed from March 2009 to February 2013, during which time the earthquake occurred on March, 2011. Data were included from disaster-stricken (Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures) and neighboring (control: Aomori, Akita, and Yamagata Prefectures) areas. The association between changes in suicide rates and economic variables was evaluated based on the number of bankruptcy cases and ratio of effective job offers. In disaster-stricken areas, post-disaster male suicide rates decreased during the 24 months following the earthquake. This trend differed relative to control areas. Female suicide rates increased during the first seven months. Multiple regression analysis showed that bankruptcy cases (β = 0.386, p = 0.038) and ratio of effective job offers (β = -0.445, p = 0.018) were only significantly associated with male post-disaster suicide rates in control areas. Post-disaster suicide rates differed by gender following the earthquake. Our findings suggest that considering gender differences might be important for developing future post-disaster suicide prevention measures. This ecological study revealed that increasing effective job offers and decreasing bankruptcy cases can affect protectively male suicide rates in control areas.

Changes in Heart Rate Associated with Exenatide Once Weekly: Pooled Analysis of Clinical Data in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Marso, Steven P; Hardy, Elise; Han, Jenny; Wang, Hui; Chilton, Robert J

2018-04-01

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) improve glycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes, but heart rate increases have been observed. A pooled post hoc analysis of 11 randomized clinical trials (N = 4595) of 10-30 weeks' duration from the exenatide once-weekly (QW) development program evaluated heart rate with exenatide QW (intervention group) and exenatide twice daily (BID), liraglutide, and non-GLP-1RAs (insulin, metformin, pioglitazone, and sitagliptin) (comparison groups). The time course and size of heart rate changes from baseline and the relationship of heart rate change with baseline heart rate were studied. A multivariate analysis (9 studies; N = 3903) examined associations between patient characteristics or treatments and heart rate increases. Mean baseline heart rate ± standard deviation was 75.0 ± 8.5 beats per minute (bpm) with exenatide QW (n = 2096), 75.8 ± 8.7 bpm with exenatide BID (n = 606), 75.2 ± 8.9 bpm with liraglutide (n = 450), and 74.5 ± 8.6 bpm with non-GLP-1RAs (n = 1443). Least-squares mean ± standard error changes from baseline to final heart rate were + 2.7 ± 0.2, + 1.0 ± 0.3, and + 3.0 ± 0.4 bpm with exenatide QW, exenatide BID, and liraglutide, respectively, and - 0.8 ± 0.2 bpm with non-GLP-1RAs. The size and direction of heart rate changes in individual patients varied within each treatment group at all time points. At posttreatment follow-up, heart rate reverted to the baseline level after GLP-1RA discontinuation. Heart rate changes correlated negatively with baseline heart rate for all therapies (r = - 0.3 to - 0.4). Baseline heart rate was the strongest predictor of increased heart rate. Small increases in heart rate were associated with exenatide QW, exenatide BID, and liraglutide treatments but reverted to baseline after discontinuation. Increases were more likely in patients with a low baseline heart rate. The clinical relevance of these heart rate increases is

MLSO Mark III K-Coronameter Observations of the CME Rate from 1989 - 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Flint, Q. A.; Xie, H.; Webb, D. F.; Burkepile, J. T.; Lecinski, A. R.; Quirk, C.; Stanger, A. L.

2015-10-01

We report here an attempt to fill the 1990 - 1995 gap in the CME rate using the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory's Mark III (Mk3) K-coronameter. The Mk3 instrument observed routinely several hours most days beginning in 1980 until it was upgraded to Mk4 in 1999. We describe the statistical properties of the CMEs detected during 1989 - 1996, and we determine a CME rate for each of those years. Since spaceborne coronagraphs have more complete duty cycles than a ground-based instrument at a single location, we compare the Mk3-derived CME rate from 1989 with the rate from the SMM C/P coronagraph, and from 1996 with the rate from the SOHO LASCO coronagraphs.

Changes in South Korean urbanicity and suicide rates, 1992 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chan, Chee Hon; Caine, Eric D; You, Sungeun; Yip, Paul Siu Fai

2015-01-01

Objectives Studies have highlighted the association between the degree of urbanicity and spatial disparities in suicide, but few have evaluated its changes across time. We explored the geospatial trends of suicide in South Korea from 1992 to 2012, and their relationship to the nation's evolving urbanicity. Setting South Korea. Primary outcome measures Age-sex-specific suicide rate. Results Suicide rates increased in all regions of South Korea during the study period. Controlling the effects of age and sex, there was an overall inverse relationship between the degree of urbanicity and regional suicide rates. These associations were, however, attenuated across the periods, as there were smaller increases in suicide rates in mid-sized urban regions as compared to larger cities and to rural areas. Increases over time in the suicide rates among youth and working-age adults were greater in large urban centres and in rural regions. For elders, the increase was far greater in rural regions. Conclusions The association of urbanicity and the geospatial pattern of suicide in South Korea was a dynamic process and varied by age groups across the course of two decades. Internal migration and related social processes most likely contributed to these changes. PMID:26700283

Accounting For Patients' Socioeconomic Status Does Not Change Hospital Readmission Rates.

PubMed

Bernheim, Susannah M; Parzynski, Craig S; Horwitz, Leora; Lin, Zhenqiu; Araas, Michael J; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Suter, Lisa G; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-08-01

There is an active public debate about whether patients' socioeconomic status should be included in the readmission measures used to determine penalties in Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Using the current Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services methodology, we compared risk-standardized readmission rates for hospitals caring for high and low proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status (as defined by their Medicaid status or neighborhood income). We then calculated risk-standardized readmission rates after additionally adjusting for patients' socioeconomic status. Our results demonstrate that hospitals caring for large proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status have readmission rates similar to those of other hospitals. Moreover, readmission rates calculated with and without adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status are highly correlated. Readmission rates of hospitals caring for patients of low socioeconomic status changed by approximately 0.1 percent with adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status, and only 3-4 percent fewer such hospitals reached the threshold for payment penalty in Medicare's HRRP. Overall, adjustment for socioeconomic status does not change hospital results in meaningful ways. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Temporal coordination and adaptation to rate change in music performance.

PubMed

Loehr, Janeen D; Large, Edward W; Palmer, Caroline

2011-08-01

People often coordinate their actions with sequences that exhibit temporal variability and unfold at multiple periodicities. We compared oscillator- and timekeeper-based accounts of temporal coordination by examining musicians' coordination of rhythmic musical sequences with a metronome that gradually changed rate at the end of a musical phrase (Experiment 1) or at the beginning of a phrase (Experiment 2). The rhythms contained events that occurred at the same periodic rate as the metronome and at half the period. Rate change consisted of a linear increase or decrease in intervals between metronome onsets. Musicians coordinated their performances better with a metronome that decreased than increased in tempo (as predicted by an oscillator model), at both beginnings and ends of musical phrases. Model performance was tested with an oscillator period or timekeeper interval set to the same period as the metronome (1:1 coordination) or half the metronome period (2:1 coordination). Only the oscillator model was able to predict musicians' coordination at both periods. These findings suggest that coordination is based on internal neural oscillations that entrain to external sequences.

Method for determining the octane rating of gasoline samples by observing corresponding acoustic resonances therein

DOEpatents

Sinha, Dipen N.; Anthony, Brian W.

1997-01-01

A method for determining the octane rating of gasoline samples by observing corresponding acoustic resonances therein. A direct correlation between the octane rating of gasoline and the frequency of corresponding acoustic resonances therein has been experimentally observed. Therefore, the octane rating of a gasoline sample can be directly determined through speed of sound measurements instead of by the cumbersome process of quantifying the knocking quality of the gasoline. Various receptacle geometries and construction materials may be employed. Moreover, it is anticipated that the measurements can be performed on flowing samples in pipes, thereby rendering the present method useful in refineries and distilleries.

In situ characterization of charge rate dependent stress and structure changes in V 2O 5 cathode prepared by atomic layer deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jung, Hyun; Gerasopoulos, Konstantinos; Talin, Albert Alec

Here, the insertion/extraction of lithium into/from various host materials is the basic process by which lithium-ion batteries reversible store charge. This process is generally accompanied by strain in the host material, inducing stress which can lead to capacity loss. Therefore, understanding of both the structural changes and the associated stress – investigated almost exclusively separate to date – is a critical factor for developing high-performance batteries. Here, we report an in situ method, which utilizes Raman spectroscopy in parallel with optical interferometry to study effects of varying charging rates (C-rates) on the structure and stress in a V 2O 5more » thin film cathode. Abrupt stress changes at specific crystal phase transitions in the Li—V—O system are observed and the magnitude of the stress changes with the amount of lithium inserted into the electrode are correlated. A linear increase in the stress as a function of x in Li xV 2O 5 is observed, indicating that C-rate does not directly contribute to larger intercalation stress. However, a more rapid increase in disorder within the Li xV 2O 5 layers is correlated with higher C-rate. Ultimately, these experiments demonstrate how the simultaneous stress/Raman in situ approach can be utilized as a characterization platform for investigating various critical factors affecting lithium-ion battery performance.« less

In situ characterization of charge rate dependent stress and structure changes in V 2O 5 cathode prepared by atomic layer deposition

DOE PAGES

Jung, Hyun; Gerasopoulos, Konstantinos; Talin, Albert Alec; ...

2016-11-22

Here, the insertion/extraction of lithium into/from various host materials is the basic process by which lithium-ion batteries reversible store charge. This process is generally accompanied by strain in the host material, inducing stress which can lead to capacity loss. Therefore, understanding of both the structural changes and the associated stress – investigated almost exclusively separate to date – is a critical factor for developing high-performance batteries. Here, we report an in situ method, which utilizes Raman spectroscopy in parallel with optical interferometry to study effects of varying charging rates (C-rates) on the structure and stress in a V 2O 5more » thin film cathode. Abrupt stress changes at specific crystal phase transitions in the Li—V—O system are observed and the magnitude of the stress changes with the amount of lithium inserted into the electrode are correlated. A linear increase in the stress as a function of x in Li xV 2O 5 is observed, indicating that C-rate does not directly contribute to larger intercalation stress. However, a more rapid increase in disorder within the Li xV 2O 5 layers is correlated with higher C-rate. Ultimately, these experiments demonstrate how the simultaneous stress/Raman in situ approach can be utilized as a characterization platform for investigating various critical factors affecting lithium-ion battery performance.« less

Diurnal Reflectance Changes in Vegetation Observed with AVIRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanderbilt, V. C.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Ustin, S. L.

1998-01-01

focused on day-to-day changes in water use, especially for agricultural applications. Ustin et al. showed seasonal changes in canopy water content in chaparral shrub could be estimated using optical methods. Vanderbilt et al. followed asymmetric diurnal changes in the reflectance of a walnut orchard, but could not attribute specific reflectance changes to specific changes in canopy architecture or physiology. Forests and shrub lands in California experience prolonged periods of drought, sometimes extending six months without precipitation. The conifer and evergreen chaparral communities common to the foothill region around the central valley of California retain their foliage throughout the summer and have low transpiration rates despite high net radiation and temperature conditions. In contrast, grasslands and drought resistant deciduous species in the same habitat are seasonally dormant in summer. Because of differences in the mechanisms of drought tolerance, rooting depth and physiology between different plant communities in the region, it is likely that they display differences in diurnal water relations. The presence of diverse plant communities provides an opportunity to investigate possible diurnal landscape patterns in water relations that could be observed by an airborne hyperspectral scanner. This investigation of AVIRIS data collected over forest and shrub land represents the continuation of a prior investigation involving spectral mixture analysis of diurnal effects in the same AVIRIS data set.

Change Semantic Constrained Online Data Cleaning Method for Real-Time Observational Data Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yulin; Lin, Hui; Li, Rongrong

2016-06-01

Recent breakthroughs in sensor networks have made it possible to collect and assemble increasing amounts of real-time observational data by observing dynamic phenomena at previously impossible time and space scales. Real-time observational data streams present potentially profound opportunities for real-time applications in disaster mitigation and emergency response, by providing accurate and timeliness estimates of environment's status. However, the data are always subject to inevitable anomalies (including errors and anomalous changes/events) caused by various effects produced by the environment they are monitoring. The "big but dirty" real-time observational data streams can rarely achieve their full potential in the following real-time models or applications due to the low data quality. Therefore, timely and meaningful online data cleaning is a necessary pre-requisite step to ensure the quality, reliability, and timeliness of the real-time observational data. In general, a straightforward streaming data cleaning approach, is to define various types of models/classifiers representing normal behavior of sensor data streams and then declare any deviation from this model as normal or erroneous data. The effectiveness of these models is affected by dynamic changes of deployed environments. Due to the changing nature of the complicated process being observed, real-time observational data is characterized by diversity and dynamic, showing a typical Big (Geo) Data characters. Dynamics and diversity is not only reflected in the data values, but also reflected in the complicated changing patterns of the data distributions. This means the pattern of the real-time observational data distribution is not stationary or static but changing and dynamic. After the data pattern changed, it is necessary to adapt the model over time to cope with the changing patterns of real-time data streams. Otherwise, the model will not fit the following observational data streams, which may led

An Evaluation of Lightning Flash Rate Parameterizations Based on Observations of Colorado Storms during DC3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basarab, B.; Fuchs, B.; Rutledge, S. A.

2013-12-01

Predicting lightning activity in thunderstorms is important in order to accurately quantify the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) by lightning (LNOx). Lightning is an important global source of NOx, and since NOx is a chemical precursor to ozone, the climatological impacts of LNOx could be significant. Many cloud-resolving models rely on parameterizations to predict lightning and LNOx since the processes leading to charge separation and lightning discharge are not yet fully understood. This study evaluates predicted flash rates based on existing lightning parameterizations against flash rates observed for Colorado storms during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment (DC3). Evaluating lightning parameterizations against storm observations is a useful way to possibly improve the prediction of flash rates and LNOx in models. Additionally, since convective storms that form in the eastern plains of Colorado can be different thermodynamically and electrically from storms in other regions, it is useful to test existing parameterizations against observations from these storms. We present an analysis of the dynamics, microphysics, and lightning characteristics of two case studies, severe storms that developed on 6 and 7 June 2012. This analysis includes dual-Doppler derived horizontal and vertical velocities, a hydrometeor identification based on polarimetric radar variables using the CSU-CHILL radar, and insight into the charge structure using observations from the northern Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). Flash rates were inferred from the LMA data using a flash counting algorithm. We have calculated various microphysical and dynamical parameters for these storms that have been used in empirical flash rate parameterizations. In particular, maximum vertical velocity has been used to predict flash rates in some cloud-resolving chemistry simulations. We diagnose flash rates for the 6 and 7 June storms using this parameterization and compare

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chanin, M.-L.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Gaffen, D.; Gelman, M.; Keckhut, P.; Koshelkov, Y.; Labitzke, K.; Lin, J.-J. R.

1999-01-01

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Jianli; Famiglietti, James S.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rodell, Matthew

2015-01-01

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Thermal sensation, rate of temperature change, and the heat dissipation design for tablet computers.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Hedge, Alan; Cosley, Daniel

2017-07-01

Past research has shown that the rate of change of skin surface temperature can affect thermal sensation. This study investigated users' thermal responses to a tablet heating surface with different heat pads and different temperature change rates. The test conditions included: A. keeping the surface at a constant 42 °C, B. increasing the surface temperature from 38 °C to 42 °C at a rate of 0.02 °C/s in progressive intervals, C. increasing the temperature at 0.15 °C/s in progressive intervals, and D. Heating two left and right side pads alternately from 38 °C to 42 °C at 0.15 °C/s in progressive intervals. Overall results showed the lowest temperature change rate of 0.02 °C/s was most preferred in terms of thermal comfort. The findings suggest a potential to improve user thermal experience by dissipating tablet computer heat at a lower temperature change rate, or by alternating the dissipation areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social Capital, Social Control, and Changes in Victimization Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawdon, James; Ryan, John

2009-01-01

A neighborhood-level model of crime that connects the central dimensions of social capital with specific forms of social control is developed. The proposed model is tested using a structural equation model that predicts changes in empirical Bayes log odds of neighborhood victimization rates between 2000 and 2001 in 41 neighborhoods in South…

Modulations of Heart Rate, ECG, and Cardio-Respiratory Coupling Observed in Polysomnography

PubMed Central

Penzel, Thomas; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Bartsch, Ronny P.; Riedl, Maik; Kraemer, Jan F.; Wessel, Niels; Garcia, Carmen; Glos, Martin; Fietze, Ingo; Schöbel, Christoph

2016-01-01

The cardiac component of cardio-respiratory polysomnography is covered by ECG and heart rate recordings. However, their evaluation is often underrepresented in summarizing reports. As complements to EEG, EOG, and EMG, these signals provide diagnostic information for autonomic nervous activity during sleep. This review presents major methodological developments in sleep research regarding heart rate, ECG, and cardio-respiratory couplings in a chronological (historical) sequence. It presents physiological and pathophysiological insights related to sleep medicine obtained by new technical developments. Recorded nocturnal ECG facilitates conventional heart rate variability (HRV) analysis, studies of cyclical variations of heart rate, and analysis of ECG waveform. In healthy adults, the autonomous nervous system is regulated in totally different ways during wakefulness, slow-wave sleep, and REM sleep. Analysis of beat-to-beat heart-rate variations with statistical methods enables us to estimate sleep stages based on the differences in autonomic nervous system regulation. Furthermore, up to some degree, it is possible to track transitions from wakefulness to sleep by analysis of heart-rate variations. ECG and heart rate analysis allow assessment of selected sleep disorders as well. Sleep disordered breathing can be detected reliably by studying cyclical variation of heart rate combined with respiration-modulated changes in ECG morphology (amplitude of R wave and T wave). PMID:27826247

Modulations of Heart Rate, ECG, and Cardio-Respiratory Coupling Observed in Polysomnography.

PubMed

Penzel, Thomas; Kantelhardt, Jan W; Bartsch, Ronny P; Riedl, Maik; Kraemer, Jan F; Wessel, Niels; Garcia, Carmen; Glos, Martin; Fietze, Ingo; Schöbel, Christoph

2016-01-01

The cardiac component of cardio-respiratory polysomnography is covered by ECG and heart rate recordings. However, their evaluation is often underrepresented in summarizing reports. As complements to EEG, EOG, and EMG, these signals provide diagnostic information for autonomic nervous activity during sleep. This review presents major methodological developments in sleep research regarding heart rate, ECG, and cardio-respiratory couplings in a chronological (historical) sequence. It presents physiological and pathophysiological insights related to sleep medicine obtained by new technical developments. Recorded nocturnal ECG facilitates conventional heart rate variability (HRV) analysis, studies of cyclical variations of heart rate, and analysis of ECG waveform. In healthy adults, the autonomous nervous system is regulated in totally different ways during wakefulness, slow-wave sleep, and REM sleep. Analysis of beat-to-beat heart-rate variations with statistical methods enables us to estimate sleep stages based on the differences in autonomic nervous system regulation. Furthermore, up to some degree, it is possible to track transitions from wakefulness to sleep by analysis of heart-rate variations. ECG and heart rate analysis allow assessment of selected sleep disorders as well. Sleep disordered breathing can be detected reliably by studying cyclical variation of heart rate combined with respiration-modulated changes in ECG morphology (amplitude of R wave and T wave).

Effects of dynamic long-period ocean tides on changes in Earth's rotation rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nam, Y.S.; Dickman, S.R.

1990-05-10

As a generalization of the zonal response coefficient first introduced by Agnew and Farrell (1978), the authors define the zonal response function k of the solid earth-ocean system as the ratio, in the frequency domain, of the tidal change in Earth's rotation rate to the tide-generating potential. Amplitudes and phases of k for the monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunar tides are estimated from 2 1/2 years of very long baseline interferometry UTI observations (both 5-day and daily time series), corrected for atmospheric angular momentum effects using NMC wind and pressure series. Using the dynamic ocean tide model of Dickman (1988a,more » 1989a), the authors predict amplitudes and phases of k for an elastic earth-ocean system. The predictions confirm earlier results which found that dynamic effects of the longer-period ocean tides reduce the amplitude of k by about 1%. However, agreement with the observed k is best achieved for all three tides if the predicted tide amplitudes are combined with the much larger satellite-observed ocean tide phases; in these cases the dynamic tidal effects reduce k by up to 8%. Finally, comparison between the observed and predicted amplitudes of k implies that anelastic effects on Earth's rotation at periods less than fortnightly cannot exceed 2%.« less

Ventricular arrhythmias and changes in heart rate preceding ventricular tachycardia in patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator.

PubMed

Lerma, Claudia; Wessel, Niels; Schirdewan, Alexander; Kurths, Jürgen; Glass, Leon

2008-07-01

The objective was to determine the characteristics of heart rate variability and ventricular arrhythmias prior to the onset of ventricular tachycardia (VT) in patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Sixty-eight beat-to-beat time series from 13 patients with an ICD were analyzed to quantify heart rate variability and ventricular arrhythmias. The episodes of VT were classified in one of two groups depending on whether the sinus rate in the 1 min preceding the VT was greater or less than 90 beats per minute. In a subset of patients, increased heart rate and reduced heart rate variability was often observed up to 20 min prior to the VT. There was a non-significant trend to higher incidence of premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) before VT compared to control recordings. The patterns of the ventricular arrhythmias were highly heterogeneous among different patients and even within the same patient. Analysis of the changes of heart rate and heart rate variability may have predictive value about the onset of VT in selected patients. The patterns of ventricular arrhythmia could not be used to predict onset of VT in this group of patients.

CONDUCTIVITY PROFILE RATE OF CHANGE FROM FIELD AND LABORATORY DATA WITHIN BIODEGRADING PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON

EPA Science Inventory

We present the results of long term (500 days) measurements of the bulk conductivity in a field and laboratory experiment. Our objective was to determine the rate of change in bulk conductivity and whether this rate of change correlated with the petroleum hydrocarbon degradation...

Coordinated Changes in Mutation and Growth Rates Induced by Genome Reduction

PubMed Central

Nishimura, Issei; Kurokawa, Masaomi; Liu, Liu

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Genome size is determined during evolution, but it can also be altered by genetic engineering in laboratories. The systematic characterization of reduced genomes provides valuable insights into the cellular properties that are quantitatively described by the global parameters related to the dynamics of growth and mutation. In the present study, we analyzed a small collection of W3110 Escherichia coli derivatives containing either the wild-type genome or reduced genomes of various lengths to examine whether the mutation rate, a global parameter representing genomic plasticity, was affected by genome reduction. We found that the mutation rates of these cells increased with genome reduction. The correlation between genome length and mutation rate, which has been reported for the evolution of bacteria, was also identified, intriguingly, for genome reduction. Gene function enrichment analysis indicated that the deletion of many of the genes encoding membrane and transport proteins play a role in the mutation rate changes mediated by genome reduction. Furthermore, the increase in the mutation rate with genome reduction was highly associated with a decrease in the growth rate in a nutrition-dependent manner; thus, poorer media showed a larger change that was of higher significance. This negative correlation was strongly supported by experimental evidence that the serial transfer of the reduced genome improved the growth rate and reduced the mutation rate to a large extent. Taken together, the global parameters corresponding to the genome, growth, and mutation showed a coordinated relationship, which might be an essential working principle for balancing the cellular dynamics appropriate to the environment. PMID:28679744

5 CFR 591.229 - How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes? 591.229 Section 591.229 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... COLA rate changes? OPM publishes COLA area survey summary reports, MEG and PEG indexes, and COLA rates...

5 CFR 591.229 - How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes? 591.229 Section 591.229 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... COLA rate changes? OPM publishes COLA area survey summary reports, MEG and PEG indexes, and COLA rates...

5 CFR 591.229 - How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes? 591.229 Section 591.229 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... COLA rate changes? OPM publishes COLA area survey summary reports, MEG and PEG indexes, and COLA rates...

5 CFR 591.229 - How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How does OPM inform agencies and employees of COLA rate changes? 591.229 Section 591.229 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... COLA rate changes? OPM publishes COLA area survey summary reports, MEG and PEG indexes, and COLA rates...

THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P.

In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using {approx}150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses <10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. Themore » observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10{sup 10} M {sub Sun} is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.« less

Method for determining the octane rating of gasoline samples by observing corresponding acoustic resonances therein

DOEpatents

Sinha, D.N.; Anthony, B.W.

1997-02-25

A method is described for determining the octane rating of gasoline samples by observing corresponding acoustic resonances therein. A direct correlation between the octane rating of gasoline and the frequency of corresponding acoustic resonances therein has been experimentally observed. Therefore, the octane rating of a gasoline sample can be directly determined through speed of sound measurements instead of by the cumbersome process of quantifying the knocking quality of the gasoline. Various receptacle geometries and construction materials may be employed. Moreover, it is anticipated that the measurements can be performed on flowing samples in pipes, thereby rendering the present method useful in refineries and distilleries. 3 figs.

Rate of Change: AP Calculus Students' Understandings and Misconceptions after Completing Different Curricular Paths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teuscher, Dawn; Reys, Robert E.

2012-01-01

This study examined Advanced Placement Calculus students' mathematical understanding of rate of change, after studying four years of college preparatory (integrated or single-subject) mathematics. Students completed the Precalculus Concept Assessment (PCA) and two open-ended tasks with questions about rates of change. After adjusting for prior…

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-08-01

Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30-40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic.

Maturation of cortical mismatch responses to occasional pitch change in early infancy: effects of presentation rate and magnitude of change.

PubMed

He, Chao; Hotson, Lisa; Trainor, Laurel J

2009-01-01

Previous studies have reported two types of event-related potential (ERP) mismatch responses in infants to infrequent auditory changes: a broad discriminative positivity in younger infants and a negativity resembling adult mismatch negativity (MMN) in older infants. In the present study, we investigated whether the positive discriminative slow wave and the adult-like MMN are functionally distinct by examining how they are affected by presentation rate and magnitude of change. We measured ERPs from adults, 2-month-olds, and 4-month-olds to a repeating piano tone (standard) that occasionally changed in pitch (deviant). The pitch changes between standards and deviants were either small (1/12 octave) or large (1/2 octave) in magnitude, and the stimulus presentation rate was either slow (800 ms SOA) or fast (400 ms SOA). As the presentation rate increased, both adults and 4-month-olds showed an MMN response that decreased in latency, but was unaffected in amplitude. As the magnitude of the pitch change increased, MMN increased in amplitude. On the other hand, only a broad positive mismatch response was seen in 2-month-olds. As the presentation rate increased, 2-month-olds' responses to standard tones decreased in amplitude while their responses to deviant tones were unaffected. The magnitude of the pitch change did not affect 2-month-olds' responses. These results suggest that pitch is processed differently in auditory cortex by 2-month-olds and 4-month-olds, and that a cortical change-detection mechanism for pitch discrimination similar to that of adults emerges between 2 and 4 months of age.

Modeling rate sensitivity of exercise transient responses to limb motion.

PubMed

Yamashiro, Stanley M; Kato, Takahide

2014-10-01

Transient responses of ventilation (V̇e) to limb motion can exhibit predictive characteristics. In response to a change in limb motion, a rapid change in V̇e is commonly observed with characteristics different than during a change in workload. This rapid change has been attributed to a feed-forward or adaptive response. Rate sensitivity was explored as a specific hypothesis to explain predictive V̇e responses to limb motion. A simple model assuming an additive feed-forward summation of V̇e proportional to the rate of change of limb motion was studied. This model was able to successfully account for the adaptive phase correction observed during human sinusoidal changes in limb motion. Adaptation of rate sensitivity might also explain the reduction of the fast component of V̇e responses previously reported following sudden exercise termination. Adaptation of the fast component of V̇e response could occur by reduction of rate sensitivity. Rate sensitivity of limb motion was predicted by the model to reduce the phase delay between limb motion and V̇e response without changing the steady-state response to exercise load. In this way, V̇e can respond more quickly to an exercise change without interfering with overall feedback control. The asymmetry between responses to an incremental and decremental ramp change in exercise can also be accounted for by the proposed model. Rate sensitivity leads to predicted behavior, which resembles responses observed in exercise tied to expiratory reserve volume. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Fast radio burst event rate counts - I. Interpreting the observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macquart, J.-P.; Ekers, R. D.

2018-02-01

The fluence distribution of the fast radio burst (FRB) population (the `source count' distribution, N (>F) ∝Fα), is a crucial diagnostic of its distance distribution, and hence the progenitor evolutionary history. We critically reanalyse current estimates of the FRB source count distribution. We demonstrate that the Lorimer burst (FRB 010724) is subject to discovery bias, and should be excluded from all statistical studies of the population. We re-examine the evidence for flat, α > -1, source count estimates based on the ratio of single-beam to multiple-beam detections with the Parkes multibeam receiver, and show that current data imply only a very weak constraint of α ≲ -1.3. A maximum-likelihood analysis applied to the portion of the Parkes FRB population detected above the observational completeness fluence of 2 Jy ms yields α = -2.6_{-1.3}^{+0.7 }. Uncertainties in the location of each FRB within the Parkes beam render estimates of the Parkes event rate uncertain in both normalizing survey area and the estimated post-beam-corrected completeness fluence; this uncertainty needs to be accounted for when comparing the event rate against event rates measured at other telescopes.

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

PubMed Central

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-01-01

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO2 and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO2 but from the combination of CO2, CH4, and N2O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years. PMID:18252830

Association between the inception of a SAFE KIDS Coalition and changes in pediatric unintentional injury rates

PubMed Central

Tamburro, R; Shorr, R; Bush, A; Kritchevsky, S; Stidham, G; Helms, S

2002-01-01

Setting: Shelby County, Tennessee. Design: Retrospective observational analysis. Patients: County residents nine years of age or younger presenting to the children's medical center, its emergency department, or its outpatient clinics from 1990–97. Intervention: Implementation of a SAFE KIDS Coalition. Main outcome measures: Rates of unintentional injuries targeted by the SAFE KIDS Coalition that resulted in hospitalization or in death. Rates of motor vehicle occupant injuries that resulted in hospitalization or in death. Rates of non-targeted unintentional injuries, namely injuries secondary to animals and by exposure to toxic plants. Rates of severe injuries (defined as those targeted injuries that required hospitalization or resulted in death), and specifically, severe motor vehicle occupant injuries were compared before and after the inception of the coalition using Poisson regression analysis. Results: The relative risk of targeted severe injury rates decreased after implementation of the coalition even after controlling for changes in hospital admission rates. Specifically, severe motor vehicle occupant injury rates decreased 30% (relative risk 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.89) after initiation of the coalition. Conclusions: The implementation of a SAFE KIDS Coalition was associated with a decrease in severe targeted injuries, most notably, severe motor vehicle occupant injuries. Although causality cannot be determined, these data suggest that the presence of a coalition may be associated with decreased severe unintentional injury rates. PMID:12226125

Detecting climate variations and change: New challenges for observing and data management systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karl, T.R.; Quayle, R.G.; Groisman, P.Ya.

1993-08-01

Several essential aspects of weather observing and the management of weather data related to improving knowledge of climate variations and change in the surface boundary layer and the consequences for socioeconomic and biogeophysical systems, are discussed. The issues include long-term homogeneous time series of routine weather observations; time- and space-scale resolution of datasets derived from the observations; information about observing systems, data collection systems, and data reduction algorithms; and the enhancement of weather observing systems to serve as climate observing systems. Although much has been learned from existing weather networks and methods of data management, the system is far frommore » perfect. Several vital areas have not received adequate attention. Particular improvements are needed in the interaction between network designers and climatologists; operational analyses that focus on detecting and documenting outliers and time-dependent biases within datasets; developing the means to cope with and minimize potential inhomogeneities in weather observing systems; and authoritative documentation of how various aspects of climate have or have not changed. In this last area, close attention must be given to time and space resolution of the data. In many instances the time and space resolution requirements for understanding why the climate changes are not synonymous with understanding how it has changed or varied. This is particularly true within the surface boundary layer. A standard global daily/monthly climate message should also be introduced to supplement current Global Telecommunication System's CLIMAT data. Overall, a call is made for improvements in routine weather observing, data management, and analysis systems. Routine observations have provided (and will continue to provide) most of the information regarding how the climate has changed during the last 100 years affecting where we live, work, and grow our food. 58 refs., 8 figs

Effects of a signature on rates of change: a randomized controlled trial involving continuing education and the commitment-to-change model.

PubMed

Mazmanian, P E; Johnson, R E; Zhang, A; Boothby, J; Yeatts, E J

2001-06-01

Physicians frequently are asked to sign commitments to change practice, based upon their involvement in continuing medical education (CME) activities. Although use of the commitment-to-change model is increasingly widespread in CME, the effect of signing such commitments on rates of change is not well understood. Immediately after a CME session, 110 physicians were asked to specify a change they intended to make in practice and to designate a level of commitment to change. To determine the effects of a signature on rates of change, physicians were randomly assigned to control (signature) and experimental (non-signature) groups. Follow-up surveys were conducted at two and three months to determine rates of change. In all, 88 physicians completed the first questionnaire, and 64 of them completed the follow-up. Consistent with prior studies involving the commitment-to-change model, those expressing an intention to change were significantly more likely to change on follow-up (p =.035). There was no significant difference between signature and non-signature groups (p =.99), regardless of age or gender. Signatures appear unimportant to assuring compliance with commitments to change used in CME conferences. A physician's behavior can be expected to change if the specified change is consistent with the physician's beliefs and sense of what is important. The relative influences of components of the commitment-to-change model require further study to determine more clearly their roles in causation and measurement.

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Explaining transgression in respiratory rate observation methods in the emergency department: A classic grounded theory analysis.

PubMed

Flenady, Tracy; Dwyer, Trudy; Applegarth, Judith

2017-09-01

Abnormal respiratory rates are one of the first indicators of clinical deterioration in emergency department(ED) patients. Despite the importance of respiratory rate observations, this vital sign is often inaccurately recorded on ED observation charts, compromising patient safety. Concurrently, there is a paucity of research reporting why this phenomenon occurs. To develop a substantive theory explaining ED registered nurses' reasoning when they miss or misreport respiratory rate observations. This research project employed a classic grounded theory analysis of qualitative data. Seventy-nine registered nurses currently working in EDs within Australia. Data collected included detailed responses from individual interviews and open-ended responses from an online questionnaire. Classic grounded theory (CGT) research methods were utilised, therefore coding was central to the abstraction of data and its reintegration as theory. Constant comparison synonymous with CGT methods were employed to code data. This approach facilitated the identification of the main concern of the participants and aided in the generation of theory explaining how the participants processed this issue. The main concern identified is that ED registered nurses do not believe that collecting an accurate respiratory rate for ALL patients at EVERY round of observations is a requirement, and yet organizational requirements often dictate that a value for the respiratory rate be included each time vital signs are collected. The theory 'Rationalising Transgression', explains how participants continually resolve this problem. The study found that despite feeling professionally conflicted, nurses often erroneously record respiratory rate observations, and then rationalise this behaviour by employing strategies that adjust the significance of the organisational requirement. These strategies include; Compensating, when nurses believe they are compensating for errant behaviour by enhancing the patient's outcome

Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change.

PubMed

Cornelissen, G; Halberg, F; Wendt, H W; Bingham, C; Sothern, R B; Haus, E; Kleitman, E; Kleitman, N; Revilla, M A; Revilla, M; Breus, T K; Pimenov, K; Grigoriev, A E; Mitish, M D; Yatsyk, G V; Syutkina, E V

1996-12-01

In several human adults, certain solar activity rhythms may influence an about 7-day rhythm in heart rate. When no about-weekly feature was found in the rate of change in sunspot area, a measure of solar activity, the double amplitude of a circadian heart rate rhythm, approximated by the fit of a 7-day cosine curve, was lower, as was heart rate corresponds to about-weekly features in solar activity and/or relates to a sunspot cycle.

Annual plants change in size over a century of observations.

PubMed

Leger, Elizabeth A

2013-07-01

Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by measuring specimens preserved on herbarium sheets collected between 1893 and 2011. I asked how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the year of collection affected plant height, leaf size, and flower number, and asked whether changes in climate resulted in decreasing sizes for seven annual forbs. Species had contrasting responses to climate factors, and would not necessarily be expected to respond in parallel to climatic shifts. There were generally positive relationships between plant size and increased minimum and maximum temperatures, which would have been predicted to lead to small increases in plant sizes over the observation period. While one species increased in size and flower number over the observation period, five of the seven species decreased in plant height, four of these decreased in leaf size, and one species also decreased in flower production. One species showed no change. The mechanisms behind these size changes are unknown, and the limited data available on these species (germination timing, area of occupancy, relative abundance) did not explain why some species shrank while others grew or did not change in size over time. These results show that multiple annual forbs are decreasing in size, but that even within the same functional group, species may have contrasting responses to similar environmental stimuli. Changes in plant size could have cascading effects on other members of these communities, and differential responses to directional change may change the composition of plant communities over time. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.