Sub-Seasonal Variability of Tropical Rainfall Observed by TRMM and Ground-based Polarimetric Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Brenda; Rutledge, Steven; Lang, Timothy; Cifelli, Robert; Nesbitt, Stephen

2010-05-01

Studies of tropical precipitation characteristics from the TRMM-LBA and NAME field campaigns using ground-based polarimetric S-band data have revealed significant differences in microphysical processes occurring in the various meteorological regimes sampled in those projects. In TRMM-LMA (January-February 1999 in Brazil; a TRMM ground validation experiment), variability is driven by prevailing low-level winds. During periods of low-level easterlies, deeper and more intense convection is observed, while during periods of low-level westerlies, weaker convection embedded in widespread stratiform precipitation is common. In the NAME region (North American Monsoon Experiment, summer 2004 along the west coast of Mexico), strong terrain variability drives differences in precipitation, with larger drops and larger ice mass aloft associated with convection occurring over the coastal plain compared to convection over the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental, or adjacent coastal waters. Comparisons with the TRMM precipitation radar (PR) indicate that such sub-seasonal variability in these two regions are not well characterized by the TRMM PR reflectivity and rainfall statistics. TRMM PR reflectivity profiles in the LBA region are somewhat lower than S-Pol values, particularly in the more intense easterly regime convection. In NAME, mean reflectivities are even more divergent, with TRMM profiles below those of S-Pol. In both regions, the TRMM PR does not capture rain rates above 80 mm hr-1 despite much higher rain rates estimated from the S-Pol polarimetric data, and rain rates are generally lower for a given reflectivity from TRMM PR compared to S-Pol. These differences between TRMM PR and S-Pol may arise from the inability of Z-R relationships to capture the full variability of microphysical conditions or may highlight problems with TRMM retrievals over land. In addition to the TRMM-LBA and NAME regions, analysis of sub-seasonal precipitation variability and

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; Eastman, Ryan; Luke, Edward

2018-01-01

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (Na). These terms are then parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal time scales Na is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Na based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter Na concentrations are made using the simplified steady state model and seasonal mean observed variables. These are found to match well with the observed Na. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g., precipitation rate and free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in Na, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

PubMed Central

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-01-01

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Seasonal variability of Martian ion escape through the plume and tail from MAVEN observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Y.; Fang, X.; Brain, D. A.; McFadden, J. P.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Eparvier, F.; Andersson, L.; Mitchell, D.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-04-01

We study the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft observations of Martian planetary ion escape during two time periods: 11 November 2014 to 19 March 2015 and 4 June 2015 to 24 October 2015, with the focus on understanding the seasonal variability of Martian ion escape in response to the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux. We organize the >6 eV O+ ion data by the upstream electric field direction to estimate the escape rates through the plume and tail. To investigate the ion escape dependence on the solar EUV flux, we constrain the solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic filed strength and compare the ion escape rates through the plume and tail in different energy ranges under high and low EUV conditions. We found that the total >6 eV O+ escape rate increases from 2 to 3 × 1024 s-1 as the EUV irradiance increases by almost the same factor, mostly on the <1 keV tailward escape. The plume escape rate does not vary significantly with EUV. The relative contribution from the plume to the total escape varies between 30% and 20% from low to high EUV. Our results suggest that the Martian ion escape is sensitive to the seasonal EUV variation, and the contribution from plume escape becomes more important under low EUV conditions.

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE PAGES

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; ...

2018-01-21

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Observing Radiative Properties of a Thinner, Seasonal Arctic Ice Pack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M.; Gerland, S.; Wang, C.

2011-12-01

The Arctic is coming to be dominated by young ice, much of it seasonal. Many of our observations of the radiative properties of sea ice come from drifting stations on thick, multi-year ice. To better understand the Arctic climate system in a warmer world, we need more data about the radiative properties and their seasonal and spatial variability on thinner, younger ice. Since this younger ice is not always thick enough to support lengthy drifting stations, there is a need for new technologies to help us get optical measurements on seasonal ice. One challenge is obtaining seasonal data on ice that is too weak to support even a ship-based camp, and especially to have these observations extend well into the melt season. For these situations, we have developed a spectral radiation monitoring buoy that can be deployed during a one-day ice station, and that can then autonomously observe the spectral albedo and transmittance of the sea ice, transmitting all data in near real time by satellite, until the buoy melts out. Similar installations at manned or regularly visited sites have provided good data, with surprisingly few data-quality problems due to frost, precipitation, or tilting. The buoys consist of 3 spectral radiometers, covering wavelengths 350 to 800 nm, and a datalogger with an Irridium modem. The datalogger and necessary batteries are inside a sealed housing which is frozen into a hole drilled in the ice. Arms extend from both the top and bottom of the housing, holding sensors that measure incident, reflected, and transmitted spectra. The under-ice radiometer is equipped with a bioshutter to avoid algal growth on the sensor. They will be deployed alongside ice mass balance buoys, providing data about the physical development of the ice and snow, as well as position. While the buoys provide an excellent record of diurnal, synoptic, and seasonal variability, they are fixed to one location in the ice, so other methods are still needed for measuring the spatial

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Modeling seasonal variability of fecal coliform in natural surface waters using the modified SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Kim, Minjeong; Pyo, JongCheol; Park, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Young Mo; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha

2016-04-01

Fecal coliforms are indicators of pathogens and thereby, understanding of their fate and transport in surface waters is important to protect drinking water sources and public health. We compiled fecal coliform observations from four different sites in the USA and Korea and found a seasonal variability with a significant connection to temperature levels. In all observations, fecal coliform concentrations were relatively higher in summer and lower during the winter season. This could be explained by the seasonal dominance of growth or die-off of bacteria in soil and in-stream. Existing hydrologic models, however, have limitations in simulating the seasonal variability of fecal coliform. Soil and in-stream bacterial modules of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are oversimplified in that they exclude simulations of alternating bacterial growth. This study develops a new bacteria subroutine for the SWAT in an attempt to improve its prediction accuracy. We introduced critical temperatures as a parameter to simulate the onset of bacterial growth/die-off and to reproduce the seasonal variability of bacteria. The module developed in this study will improve modeling for environmental management schemes.

Seasonal-scale nearshore morphological evolution: Field observations and numerical modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.-J.R.; Gelfenbaum, G.; van, Ormondt M.

2009-01-01

A coupled waves-currents-bathymetric evolution model (DELFT-3D) is compared with field measurements to test hypotheses regarding the processes responsible for alongshore varying nearshore morphological changes at seasonal time scales. A 2001 field experiment, along the beaches adjacent to Grays Harbor, Washington, USA, captured the transition between the high-energy erosive conditions of winter and the low-energy beach-building conditions typical of summer. The experiment documented shoreline progradation on the order of 10-20 m and on average approximately 70 m of onshore sandbar migration during a four-month period. Significant alongshore variability was observed in the morphological response of the sandbar over a 4 km reach of coast with sandbar movement ranging from 20 m of offshore migration to over 175 m of onshore bar migration, the largest seasonal-scale onshore migration event observed in a natural setting. Both observations and model results suggest that, in the case investigated here, alongshore variations in initial bathymetry are primarily responsible for the observed alongshore variable morphological changes. Alongshore varying incident hydrodynamic forcing, occasionally significant in this region due to a tidal inlet and associated ebb-tidal delta, was relatively minor during the study period and appears to play an insignificant role in the observed alongshore variability in sandbar behavior at kilometer-scale. The role of fully three-dimensional cell circulation patterns in explaining the observed morphological variability also appears to be minor, at least in the case investigated here. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2003-01-01

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident

The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

2018-06-01

A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

Diagnosis of extratropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferranti, L.; Molteni, F.; Brankovic, C.

1994-06-01

Properties of the general circulation simulated by the ECMWF model are discussed using a set of seasonal integrations at T63 resolution. For each season, over the period of 5 years, 1986-1990, three integrations initiated on consecutive days were run with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST). This paper presents a series of diagnostics of extratropical variability in the model, with particular emphasis on the northern winter. Time-filtered maps of variability indicate that in this season there is insufficient storm track activity penetrating into the Eurasian continent. Related to this the maximum of lower-frequency variability for northern spring are more realistic.more » Blocking is defined objectively in terms of the geostrophic wind at 500 mb. Consistent with the low-frequency transience, in the Euro-Atlantic sector the position of maximum blocking in the model is displaced eastward. The composite structure of blocks over the Pacific is realistic, though their frequency is severely underestimated at all times of year. Shortcomings in the simulated wintertime general circulation were also revealed by studying the projection of 5-day mean fields onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the observed flow. The largest differences were apparent for statistics of EOFs of the zonal mean flow. Analysis of weather regime activity, defined from the EOFs, suggested that regimes with positive PNA index were overpopulated, while the negative PNA regimes were underpopulated. A further comparison between observed and modeled low-frequency variance revealed that underestimation of low-frequency variability occurs along the same axes that explain most of the spatial structure of the error in the mean field, suggesting a common dynamical origin for these two aspects of the systematic error. 17 refs., 17 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Constraining land carbon cycle process understanding with observations of atmospheric CO2 variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Liu, Y.; Zeng, F.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We evaluate our understanding of the land biospheric carbon cycle by benchmarking a model and its variants to atmospheric CO2 observations and to an atmospheric CO2 inversion. Though the seasonal cycle in CO2 observations is well simulated by the model (RMSE/standard deviation of observations <0.5 at most sites north of 15N and <1 for Southern Hemisphere sites) different model setups suggest that the CO2 seasonal cycle provides some constraint on gross photosynthesis, respiration, and fire fluxes revealed in the amplitude and phase at northern latitude sites. CarbonTracker inversions (CT) and model show similar phasing of the seasonal fluxes but agreement in the amplitude varies by region. We also evaluate interannual variability (IAV) in the measured atmospheric CO2 which, in contrast to the seasonal cycle, is not well represented by the model. We estimate the contributions of biospheric and fire fluxes, and atmospheric transport variability to explaining observed variability in measured CO2. Comparisons with CT show that modeled IAV has some correspondence to the inversion results >40N though fluxes match poorly at regional to continental scales. Regional and global fire emissions are strongly correlated with variability observed at northern flask sample sites and in the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate though in the latter case fire emissions anomalies are not large enough to account fully for the observed variability. We discuss remaining unexplained variability in CO2 observations in terms of the representation of fluxes by the model. This work also demonstrates the limitations of the current network of CO2 observations and the potential of new denser surface measurements and space based column measurements for constraining carbon cycle processes in models.

Comparison of seasonal variability of Aquarius sea surface salinity time series with in situ observations in the Karimata Strait, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanto, R. D.; Setiawan, A.; Zheng, Q.; Sulistyo, B.; Adi, T. R.; Agustiadi, T.; Trenggono, M.; Triyono, T.; Kuswardani, A.

2016-12-01

The seasonal variability of a full lifetime of Aquarius sea surface salinity time series from August 25, 2011 to June 7, 2015 is compared to salinity time series obtained from in situ observations in the Karimata Strait. The Karimata Strait plays dual roles in water exchange between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The salinity in the Karimata Strait is strongly affected by seasonal monsoon winds. During the boreal winter monsoon, northwesterly winds draws low salinity water from the South China Sea into the Java Sea and at the same time, the Java Sea receives an influx of the Indian Ocean water via the Sunda Strait. The Java Sea water will reduce the main Indonesian throughflow in the Makassar Strait. Conditions are reversed during the summer monsoon. Low salinity water from the South China Sea also controls the vertical structure of water properties in the upper layer of the Makassar Strait and the Lombok Strait. As a part of the South China Sea and Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange (SITE) program, trawl resistance bottom mounted CTD was deployed in the Karimata Strait in mid-2010 to mid-2016 at water depth of 40 m. CTD casts during the mooring recoveries and deployments are used to compare the bottom salinity data. This in situ salinity time series is compared with various Aquarius NASA salinity products (the level 2, level 3 ascending and descending tracks and the seven-days rolling averaged) to check the consistency, correlation and statistical analysis. The preliminary results show that the seasonal variability of Aquarius salinity time series has larger amplitude variability compared to that of in situ data.

The Variability of Atmospheric Deuterium Brightness at Mars: Evidence for Seasonal Dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayyasi, Majd; Clarke, John; Bhattacharyya, Dolon; Deighan, Justin; Jain, Sonal; Chaffin, Michael; Thiemann, Edward; Schneider, Nick; Jakosky, Bruce

2017-10-01

The enhanced ratio of deuterium to hydrogen on Mars has been widely interpreted as indicating the loss of a large column of water into space, and the hydrogen content of the upper atmosphere is now known to be highly variable. The variation in the properties of both deuterium and hydrogen in the upper atmosphere of Mars is indicative of the dynamical processes that produce these species and propagate them to altitudes where they can escape the planet. Understanding the seasonal variability of D is key to understanding the variability of the escape rate of water from Mars. Data from a 15 month observing campaign, made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph high-resolution echelle channel, are used to determine the brightness of deuterium as observed at the limb of Mars. The D emission is highly variable, with a peak in brightness just after southern summer solstice. The trends of D brightness are examined against extrinsic as well as intrinsic sources. It is found that the fluctuations in deuterium brightness in the upper atmosphere of Mars (up to 400 km), corrected for periodic solar variations, vary on timescales that are similar to those of water vapor fluctuations lower in the atmosphere (20-80 km). The observed variability in deuterium may be attributed to seasonal factors such as regional dust storm activity and subsequent circulation lower in the atmosphere.

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Spatial and seasonal variability of dissolved organic matter in the Cariaco Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzoni, Laura; Taylor, Gordon T.; Benitez-Nelson, Claudia; Hansell, Dennis A.; Montes, Enrique; Masserini, Robert; Fanning, Kent; Varela, Ramón; Astor, Yrene; GuzmáN, Laurencia; Muller-Karger, Frank E.

2013-06-01

organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen (DON), and phosphorus (DOP) were measured monthly at the CARIACO Time Series station (10°30'N, 64°40'W) in the southeastern Caribbean Sea between 2005 and 2012. Marked seasonal variability in DOC concentrations was observed, with lower values (~66 µM) in the upper water column (<75 m) during the upwelling season (December-April) due to the injection of cool, DOC-impoverished Subtropical Underwater from the Caribbean Sea. During the rainy season (May-November) waters were stratified and upper layer DOC concentrations increased to ~71 µM. Interannual variability in surface (1 m) concentrations of DOC was also observed in response to the variable strength in upwelling and stratification that the Cariaco Basin experienced. DON and DOP showed no such seasonality. At depths >350 m, DOC concentrations were 56 ± 4.7 µM, roughly 10 µM higher than those in the Caribbean Sea over the same depth range. DON and DOP showed similar vertical profiles to that of DOC, with higher concentrations (6.8 ± 1.2 µM N and 0.15 ±0.09 µM P) in the upper water column and invariant, lower concentrations at depth (4.8 ± 1.6 µM N and 0.10 ± 0.08 µM P). Wind-driven advection of surface DOC out of the Cariaco Basin was estimated to support a net export ~15 Gmol C yr-1 into the Caribbean Sea; this rate is comparable to the flux of settling particulate organic carbon to depths >275 m within the basin.

Phytoplankton class-specific primary production in the world's oceans: Seasonal and interannual variability from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uitz, Julia; Claustre, Hervé; Gentili, Bernard; Stramski, Dariusz

2010-09-01

We apply an innovative approach to time series data of surface chlorophyll from satellite observations with SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) to estimate the primary production associated with three major phytoplankton classes (micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton) within the world's oceans. Statistical relationships, determined from an extensive in situ database of phytoplankton pigments, are used to infer class-specific vertical profiles of chlorophyll a concentration from satellite-derived surface chlorophyll a. This information is combined with a primary production model and class-specific photophysiological parameters to compute global seasonal fields of class-specific primary production over a 10-year period from January 1998 through December 2007. Microphytoplankton (mostly diatoms) appear as a major contributor to total primary production in coastal upwelling systems (70%) and temperate and subpolar regions (50%) during the spring-summer season. The contribution of picophytoplankton (e.g., prokaryotes) reaches maximum values (45%) in subtropical oligotrophic gyres. Nanophytoplankton (e.g., prymnesiophytes) provide a ubiquitous, substantial contribution (30-60%). Annual global estimates of class-specific primary production amount to 15 Gt C yr-1 (32% of total), 20 Gt C yr-1 (44%) and 11 Gt C yr-1 (24%) for micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton, respectively. The analysis of interannual variations revealed large anomalies in class-specific primary production as compared to the 10-year mean cycle in both the productive North Atlantic basin and the more stable equatorial Pacific upwelling. Microphytoplankton show the largest range of variability of the three phytoplankton classes on seasonal and interannual time scales. Our results contribute to an understanding and quantification of carbon cycle in the ocean.

Seasonal variability of surface and column carbon monoxide over the megacity Paris, high-altitude Jungfraujoch and Southern Hemispheric Wollongong stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Té, Yao; Jeseck, Pascal; Franco, Bruno; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Jones, Nicholas; Paton-Walsh, Clare; Griffith, David W. T.; Buchholz, Rebecca R.; Hadji-Lazaro, Juliette; Hurtmans, Daniel; Janssen, Christof

2016-09-01

This paper studies the seasonal variation of surface and column CO at three different sites (Paris, Jungfraujoch and Wollongong), with an emphasis on establishing a link between the CO vertical distribution and the nature of CO emission sources. We find the first evidence of a time lag between surface and free tropospheric CO seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere. The CO seasonal variability obtained from the total columns and free tropospheric partial columns shows a maximum around March-April and a minimum around September-October in the Northern Hemisphere (Paris and Jungfraujoch). In the Southern Hemisphere (Wollongong) this seasonal variability is shifted by about 6 months. Satellite observations by the IASI-MetOp (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) and MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) instruments confirm this seasonality. Ground-based FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) measurements provide useful complementary information due to good sensitivity in the boundary layer. In situ surface measurements of CO volume mixing ratios at the Paris and Jungfraujoch sites reveal a time lag of the near-surface seasonal variability of about 2 months with respect to the total column variability at the same sites. The chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model) is employed to interpret our observations. GEOS-Chem sensitivity runs identify the emission sources influencing the seasonal variation of CO. At both Paris and Jungfraujoch, the surface seasonality is mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions, while the total column seasonality is also controlled by air masses transported from distant sources. At Wollongong, where the CO seasonality is mainly affected by biomass burning, no time shift is observed between surface measurements and total column data.

Evaluate the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of carbon fluxes and the associated uncertainties using modeled and observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, F.; Collatz, G. J.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We assessed the performance of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach - Global Fire Emissions Database (CASA-GFED3) terrestrial carbon cycle model in simulating seasonal cycle and interannual variability (IAV) of global and regional carbon fluxes and uncertainties associated with model parameterization. Key model parameters were identified from sensitivity analyses and their uncertainties were propagated through model processes using the Monte Carlo approach to estimate the uncertainties in carbon fluxes and pool sizes. Three independent flux data sets, the global gross primary productivity (GPP) upscaled from eddy covariance flux measurements by Jung et al. (2011), the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimated by CarbonTracker, and the eddy covariance flux observations, were used to evaluate modeled fluxes and the uncertainties. Modeled fluxes agree well with both Jung's GPP and CarbonTracker NEE in the amplitude and phase of seasonal cycle, except in the case of GPP in tropical regions where Jung et al. (2011) showed larger fluxes and seasonal amplitude. Modeled GPP IAV is positively correlated (p < 0.1) with Jung's GPP IAV except in the tropics and temperate South America. The correlations between modeled NEE IAV and CarbonTracker NEE IAV are weak at regional to continental scales but stronger when fluxes are aggregated to >40°N latitude. At regional to continental scales flux uncertainties were larger than the IAV in the fluxes for both Jung's GPP and CarbonTracker NEE. Comparisons with eddy covariance flux observations are focused on sites within regions and years of recorded large-scale climate anomalies. We also evaluated modeled biomass using other independent continental biomass estimates and found good agreement. From the comparisons we identify the strengths and weaknesses of the model to capture the seasonal cycle and IAV of carbon fluxes and highlight ways to improve model performance.

Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

2018-02-01

While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

Seasonal and Regional Variability in North Pacific Upper-Ocean Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najjar, R.; Creedon, R.; Cronin, M. F.

2016-02-01

Turbulent diffusion at marine mixed layer base (MLB) plays a fundamental role in the transport of energy between the upper and abyssal ocean. Recent investigations of North Pacific mooring data at Ocean Climate Stations (OCS) Papa (50.1N,144.9W) and KEO (32.3N,144.6E) suggest seasonal and regional variability in thermal diffusivity (κT). In this investigation, it is hypothesized that these observed differences in κT are directly associated with synoptic variability in net surface heat flux (Q0), surface wind stress (τ), mixed layer depth (h), and density stratification at MLB (∂zσ|-h). To test this hypothesis, daily-averaged time series of κT are regressed against those of Q0, τ, h, and ∂zσ|-h at both Papa and KEO over a six year time period (2007-2013). Seasonality of each time series is removed before regression to capture synoptic variability of each variable. Preliminary results of the regression analysis suggest statistically significant correlations between κT and all forcing parameters at both mooring sites. These correlations have well-determined orders of magnitude and signs consistent with the hypothesis. As a result, differences in κT between Papa and KEO may be recast in terms of differences in their correlation coefficients. In order to continue investigation of these parameters and their effects on mean seasonal differences between the two regions, these results will be compared with turbulence predicted by the K-Profile Parameterization ocean turbulence model.

Seasonal variability of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in recent high-top CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Dzaki; Lubis, Sandro W.; Setiawan, Sonni

2018-05-01

Tropical weather system is controlled by periodic atmospheric disturbances ranging from daily to subseasonal time scales. One of the most prominent atmospheric disturbances in the tropics is convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). CCEWs are excited by latent heating due to a large-scale convective system and have a significant influence on weather system. They include atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave, Mixed Rossby Gravity (MRG) wave, Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave and Tropical Depression (TD-type) wave. In this study, we will evaluate the seasonal variability of CCEWs activity in nine high-top CMIP5 models, including their spatial distribution in the troposphere. Our results indicate that seasonal variability of Kelvin waves is well represented in MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR, with maximum activity occurring during boreal spring. The seasonal variability of MRG waves is well represented in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer. On the other hand, ER waves are well captured by IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR and maximize during boreal fall; while TD-type waves, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer, are well observed in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Our results indicate that the skill of CMIP5 models in representing seasonal variability of CCEWs highly depends on the convective parameterization and the spatial or vertical resolution used by each model.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of

Further influence of the eastern boundary on the seasonal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baehr, Johanna; Schmidt, Christian

2016-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5 N has been shown to arise predominantly from sub-surface density variations at the Eastern boundary. Here, we suggest that these sub-surface density variations have their origin in the seasonal variability of the Canary Current system, in particular the Poleward Undercurrent (PUC). We use a high-resolution ocean model (STORM) for which we show that the seasonal variability resembles observations for both sub-surface density variability and meridional transports. In particular, the STORM model simulation density variations at the eastern boundary show seasonal variations reaching down to well over 1000m, a pattern that most model simulations systematically underestimate. We find that positive wind stress curl anomalies in late summer and already within one degree off the eastern boundary result -through water column stretching- in strong transport anomlies in PUC in fall, coherent down to 1000m depth. Simultaneously with a westward propagation of these transport anomalies, we find in winter a weak PUC between 200 m and 500m, and southward transports between 600m and 1300m. This variability is in agreement with the observationally-based suggestion of a seasonal reversal of the meridional transports at intermediate depths. Our findings extend earlier studies which suggested that the seasonal variability at of the meridional transports across 26N is created by changes in the basin-wide thermocline through wind-driven upwelling at the eastern boundary analyzing wind stress curl anomalies 2 degrees off the eastern boundary. Our results suggest that the investigation of AMOC variability and particular its seasonal cycle modulations require the analysis of boundary wind stress curl and the upper ocean transports within 1 degree off the eastern boundary. These findings also implicate that without high-resolution coverage of the eastern boundary, coarser model simulation might not fully

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Arctic Sea Ice: A Comparison between AO-FVCOM and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, C.; Beardsley, R. C.; Gao, G.; Qi, J.; Lin, H.

2016-02-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the Arctic sea ice over the period 1978-2014. Good agreements were found between simulated and observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, indicating that the AO-FVCOM captured not only the seasonal and interannual variability but also the spatial distribution of the sea ice in the Arctic in the past 37 years. Compared with other six Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher correlation coefficient and a smaller difference with observations. An effort was also made to examine the physical processes attributing to the model-produced bias in the sea ice simulation. The error in the direction of the ice drift velocity was sensitive to the wind turning angle; smaller when the wind was stronger, but larger when the wind was weaker. This error could lead to the bias in the near-surface current in the fully or partially ice-covered zone where the ice-sea interfacial stress was a major driving force.

SABER Observations of the OH Meinel Airglow Variability Near the Mesopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, Daniel R.; Smith, Anne K.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2005-01-01

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, observes the OH Meinel emission at 2.0 m that peaks near the mesopause. The emission results from reactions between members of the oxygen and hydrogen chemical families that can be significantly affected by mesopause dynamics. In this study we compare SABER measurements of OH Meinel emission rates and temperatures with predictions from a 3-dimensional chemical dynamical model. In general, the model is capable of reproducing both the observed diurnal and seasonal OH Meinel emission variability. The results indicate that the diurnal tide has a large effect on the overall magnitude and temporal variation of the emission in low latitudes. This tidal variability is so dominant that the seasonal cycle in the nighttime emission depends very strongly on the local time of the analysis. At higher latitudes, the emission has an annual cycle that is due mainly to transport of oxygen by the seasonally reversing mean circulation.

Intra-seasonal rainfall variability during the maize growing season in the northern lowlands of Lesotho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tongwane, Mphethe Isaac; Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond

2015-05-01

Intra-seasonal rainfall distribution was identified as a priority gap that needs to be addressed for southern Africa to cope with agro-meteorological risks. The region in the northwest of Lesotho is appropriate for crop cultivation due to its relatively favourable climatic conditions and soils. High rainfall variability is often blamed for poor agricultural production in this region. This study aims to determine the onset of rains, cessation of rains and rainy season duration using historical climate data. Temporal variability of these rainy season characteristics was also investigated. The earliest and latest onset dates of the rainy season are during the last week of October at Butha-Buthe and the third week of November at Mapoteng, respectively. Cessation of the season is predominantly in the first week of April making the season approximately 137-163 days long depending on the location. Average seasonal rainfall ranged from 474 mm at Mapoteng to 668 mm at Butha-Buthe. Onset and cessation of the rainfall season vary by 4-7 weeks and 1 week, respectively. Mean coefficient of variation of seasonal rainfall is 39 %, but monthly variations are higher. These variations make annual crop management and planning difficult each year. Trends show a decrease in the rainfall amounts but improvements in both the temporal distribution of annual rainfall, onset and cessation dates.

Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2012-12-01

Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Tania; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Valsala, Vinu; Lin, Xin; Ramonet, Michel; Mahajan, Anoop; Datye, Amey; Kumar, K. Ravi

2018-02-01

Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June-September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December-February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic (land) origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

Interannual and seasonal changes in the south seasonal polar cap of Mars: Observations from MY 28-31 using MARCI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, W. M.; Cantor, B. A.; James, P. B.

2017-08-01

The Mars Color Imager (MARCI) camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter provides daily synoptic coverage that allows monitoring of seasonal cap retreat and interannual changes that occur between Mars Years (MY) and over the southern summer. We present the first analysis of this data for the southern seasonal cap evolution observed in MY 28, 29, 30 and 31 (2/2007 to 07/2013). Observation over multiple Mars years allows us to compare changes between years as well as longer-term evolution of the high albedo deposits at the poles. Seasonal cap retreat is similar in all years and to retreats observed in other years by both optical and thermal instruments. The cryptic terrain has a fairly consistent boundary in each year, but numerous small-scale variations occur in each MY observed. Additionally, numerous small dark deposits are identified outside the classically identified cyptic region, including Inca City and other locations not previously noted. The large water ice outlier is observed to retain seasonal frost the longest (outside the polar dome) and is also highly variable in each MY. The development of the cryptic/anti-cryptic hemispheres is inferred to occur due to albedo variations that develop after dust venting starts and may be caused by recondensation of CO2 ice on the brightest and coldest regions controlled by topographic winds. Ground ice may play a role in which regions develop cryptic terrain, as there is no elevation control on either cryptic terrain or the late season brightest deposits.

Variability of the martian seasonal CO2 cap extent over eight Mars Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, Sylvain; Kleinböhl, Armin; Hayne, Paul O.; Kass, David M.; Schofield, John T.; McCleese, Daniel J.

2015-05-01

We present eight Mars Years of nearly continuous tracking of the CO2 seasonal cap edges from Mars Year (MY) 24 to 31 using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) thermal infrared data. Spatial and temporal resolutions are 1 pixel per degree and 10°Ls (aerocentric longitude of the Sun). The seasonal caps are defined as the regions where the diurnal radiometric temperature variations at ∼32 μm wavelength do not exceed 5 K. With this definition, terrains with small areal fraction of defrosted regolith able to experience measurable diurnal temperature cycles are not mapped as part of the cap. This technique is adequate to distinguish CO2 from H2O ices, and effective during the polar night or under low illumination conditions. The present analysis answers outstanding questions stemming from fragmented observations at visible wavelengths: (1) the previously sparsely documented growth of the North seasonal caps (160° < Ls < 270°) is shown to be repeatable within 1-2° equivalent latitude, and monotonic over the MY 24-31 time period; high repeatability is observed during the retreat of the caps in non-dusty years (∼1° or less equivalent latitude); (2) the MY 25 storm does not seem to have impacted the growth rate, maximal extents, or recession rate of the North seasonal caps, whereas the MY 28 dust storm clearly sped up the recession of the cap (∼2° smaller on average after the storm, during the recession, compared to other years); (3) during non-dusty years, the growth of the South seasonal cap (350° < Ls < 100°) presents noticeable variability (up to ∼4° equivalent latitude near Ls = 20°) with a maximum extent reached near Ls = 90°; (4) the retreat of the Southern seasonal cap (100° < Ls < 310°) exhibits large inter-annual variability, especially near 190° < Ls < 220°; (5) the recession of the MY 25 South seasonal cap is significantly accelerated during the

Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants.

PubMed

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-07-21

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses.

Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

PubMed Central

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-01-01

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. PMID:20657765

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125

Seasonal and diurnal variability in airborne mold from an indoor residential environment in northern New York.

PubMed

LeBouf, Ryan; Yesse, Liesel; Rossner, Alan

2008-05-01

It is well known that characterization of airborne bioaerosols in indoor environments is a challenge because of inherent irregularity in concentrations, which are influenced by many environmental factors. The primary aim of this study was to quantify the day-to-day variability of airborne fungal levels in a single residential environment over multiple seasons. Indoor air quality practitioners must recognize the inherent variability in airborne bio-aerosol measurements during data analysis of mold investigations. Changes in airborne fungi due to varying season and day is important to recognize when considering health impacts of these contaminants and when establishing effective controls. Using an Andersen N6 impactor, indoor and outdoor bioaerosol samples were collected on malt extract agar plates for 18 weekdays and 19 weekdays in winter and summer, respectively. Interday and intraday variability for the bioaerosols were determined for each sampler. Average fungal concentrations were 26 times higher during the summer months. Day-to-day fungal samples showed a relatively high inconsistency suggesting airborne fungal levels are very episodic and are influenced by several environmental factors. Summer bio-aerosol variability ranged from 7 to 36% and winter variability from 24 to 212%; these should be incorporated into results of indoor mold investigations. The second objective was to observe the relationship between biological and nonbiological particulate matter (PM). No correlation was observed between biological and nonbiological PM. Six side-by-side particulate samplers collected coarse PM (PM10) and fine PM (PM2.5) levels in both seasons. PM2.5 particulate concentrations were found to be statistically higher during summer months. Interday variability observed during this study suggests that indoor air quality practitioners must adjust their exposure assessment strategies to reflect the temporal variability in bioaerosol concentrations.

Seasonal variability of stratospheric methane: implications for constraining tropospheric methane budgets using total column observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saad, Katherine M.; Wunch, Debra; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Griffith, David W. T.; Hase, Frank; De Mazière, Martine; Notholt, Justus; Pollard, David F.; Roehl, Coleen M.; Schneider, Matthias; Sussmann, Ralf; Warneke, Thorsten; Wennberg, Paul O.

2016-11-01

Global and regional methane budgets are markedly uncertain. Conventionally, estimates of methane sources are derived by bridging emissions inventories with atmospheric observations employing chemical transport models. The accuracy of this approach requires correctly simulating advection and chemical loss such that modeled methane concentrations scale with surface fluxes. When total column measurements are assimilated into this framework, modeled stratospheric methane introduces additional potential for error. To evaluate the impact of such errors, we compare Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and GEOS-Chem total and tropospheric column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of methane. We find that the model's stratospheric contribution to the total column is insensitive to perturbations to the seasonality or distribution of tropospheric emissions or loss. In the Northern Hemisphere, we identify disagreement between the measured and modeled stratospheric contribution, which increases as the tropopause altitude decreases, and a temporal phase lag in the model's tropospheric seasonality driven by transport errors. Within the context of GEOS-Chem, we find that the errors in tropospheric advection partially compensate for the stratospheric methane errors, masking inconsistencies between the modeled and measured tropospheric methane. These seasonally varying errors alias into source attributions resulting from model inversions. In particular, we suggest that the tropospheric phase lag error leads to large misdiagnoses of wetland emissions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Seasonal Variability of Salt Transports in the Northern Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addezio, J. M.; Bulusu, S.

2016-02-01

Due to limited observational data in the Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the global ocean, past work on the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has relied heavily upon model analysis to study the variability of regional salinity advection caused by the monsoon seasons. With the launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite in 2009 and the Aquarius SAC-D mission in 2011 (ended on June 7, 2011), remotely sensed, synoptic scale sea surface salinity (SSS) data is now readily available to study this dynamic region. The new observational data has allowed us to revisit the region to analyze seasonal variability of salinity advection in the NIO using several modeled products, the Aquarius and SMOS satellites, and Argo floats data. The model simulations include the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ECMWF-ORSA4), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Reanalysis, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our analyses of salinity at the surface and at depths up to 200 m, surface salt transport in the top 5 m layer, and depth-integrated salt transports revealed different salinity processes in the NIO that are dominantly related to the semi-annual monsoons. Aquarius and SMOS prove useful tools for observing this dynamic region, and reveal some aspects of SSS that Argo cannot resolve. Meridional depth-integrated salt transports using the modeled products along 6°N revealed dominant advective processes from the surface towards near-bottom depths. Finally, a difference in subsurface salinity stratification causes many of the modeled products to incorrectly estimate the magnitude and seasonality of NIO barrier layer thickness (BLT) when compared to the Argo solution. This problem is also evident in model output from the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), a region with strong air-sea teleconnections with the Arabian Sea.

Environmental Conditions and Seasonal Variables in American Youth Football Leagues.

PubMed

Yeargin, Susan W; Cahoon, Erin; Hosokawa, Yuri; Mensch, James M; Dompier, Thomas P; Kerr, Zachary Y

2017-11-01

Our study describes youth football (YFB) environmental conditions and the associated heat index (HI) risk category. An observational research design was utilized. Independent variables included month, time, event, and geographic location. Main outcome variables were frequency of events, average HI, and corresponding risk categorization. The HI was recorded with the day and time for each YFB event across 2 YFB seasons. Nearly half (49.8%) of events were in a high HI risk category and 20.0% should have been cancelled. The hottest HI values were recorded in July and August (83.2 ± 9.4°F to 87.2 ± 10.9°F; 24.0% of YFB events). The 7 to 10 am time frame was cooler (67.7 ± 14.5°F; 6.3% of YFB events) than other time frames ( P < .001). Hotter HI values were recorded in practices versus games (75.9 ± 14.1°F vs 70.6 ± 14.6°F; t = -6.426, P < .001). Starting the YFB season in September and holding weekend events in the early morning hours can decrease exposure to environmental heat stress.

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE PAGES

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.; ...

2015-07-03

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Observational Evidence of Impacts of Aerosols on Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Asian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Hsu, N. C.

2006-01-01

Observational evidences are presented showing that the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle. Increased loading of absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in April-May is associated with a) increased heating of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau, b) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, and c) subsequent enhancement of monsoon rainfall over the South Asia subcontinent, and reduction over East Asia. Also presented are radiative transfer calculations showing how differential solar absorption by aerosols over bright surface (desert or snow cover land) compared to dark surface (vegetated land and ocean), may be instrumental in triggering an aerosol-monsoon large-scale circulation and water cycle feedback, consistent with the elevated heat pump hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006).

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Cerniglia, Mark C.; Sparling, Lynn C.; Nielsen, J. Eric

1999-01-01

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The

Using present day observations to detect when ocean acidification exceeds natural variability of surface seawater Ωaragonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

2016-02-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is the need to better understand the magnitude of long-term change in the context of natural variability. High-frequency moored observations can be highly effective in defining interannual, seasonal, and subseasonal variability at key locations. Here we present monthly aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) climatology for 15 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater pCO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2009. We then use these present day surface mooring observations to estimate pre-industrial variability at each location and compare these results to previous modeling studies addressing global-scale variability and change. Our observations suggest that open oceans sites, especially in the subtropics, are experiencing Ωaragonite values throughout much of the year which are outside the range of pre-industrial values. In coastal and coral reef ecosystems, which have higher natural variability, seasonal patterns where present day Ωaragonite values exceeding pre-industrial bounds are emerging with some sites exhibiting subseasonal conditions approaching Ωaragonite = 1. Linking these seasonal patterns in carbonate chemistry to biological processes in these regions is critical to identify when and where marine life may encounter Ωaragonite values outside the conditions to which they have adapted.

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Seasonal controls of the short term variability of pCO2 at the Scotian Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, H.; Craig, S.; Greenan, B. J. W.; Burt, W.; Herndl, G. J.; Higginson, S.; Salt, L.; Shadwick, E. H.; Urrego-Blanco, J.

2012-04-01

Much of the surface ocean carbon cycle variability can be attributed to the availability of sunlight, through processes such as heat fluxes or photosynthesis, which regulate the ocean carbon cycle over a wide range of time scales. The critical processes occurring on timescales of a day or less, however, have undergone few investigations, and most of those have been limited to a time span of several days to months, or exceptionally, for longer periods. Optical methods have helped to infer short-term biological variability, however lacking corresponding investigations of oceanic CO2 system. Here, we employ high-frequency CO2 system and optical observations covering the full seasonal cycle on the Scotian Shelf, Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, in order to unravel daily periodicity of the surface ocean carbon cycle and its effects on annual budgets. We show that significant daily periodicity occurs only if the water column is sufficiently stable as observed during seasonal warming. During that time biological CO2 drawdown, or net community production (NCP), is delayed for several hours relative to the daylight cycle due the daily build-up of essential Chlorophyll a, to cell physiology and to grazing effects, all restricting or hindering photosynthesis in the early morning hours. NCP collapses in summer by more than 90%, when the mixed layer depth reaches the seasonal minimum, which eventually makes the observed daily periodicity of the CO2 system vanish.

Global characteristics of stream flow seasonality and variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.

2000-01-01

Monthly stream flow series from 1345 sites around the world are used to characterize geographic differences in the seasonality and year-to-year variability of stream flow. Stream flow seasonality varies regionally, depending on the timing of maximum precipitation, evapotranspiration, and contributions from snow and ice. Lags between peaks of precipitation and stream flow vary smoothly from long delays in high-latitude and mountainous regions to short delays in the warmest sectors. Stream flow is most variable from year to year in dry regions of the southwest United States and Mexico, the Sahel, and southern continents, and it varies more (relatively) than precipitation in the same regions. Tropical rivers have the steadiest flows. El Nin??o variations are correlated with stream flow in many parts of the Americas, Europe, and Australia. Many stream flow series from North America, Europe, and the Tropics reflect North Pacific climate, whereas series from the eastern United States, Europe, and tropical South America and Africa reflect North Atlantic climate variations.

Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

2006-07-01

The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

The seasonal predictability of blocking frequency in two seasonal prediction systems (CMCC, Met-Office) and the associated representation of low-frequency variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Scaife, Adam A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Hermanson, Leon; MacLachlan, Craig; Arribas, Alberto; Materia, Stefano; Borelli, Andrea

2014-05-01

Low-frequency variability is a fundamental component of the atmospheric circulation. Extratropical teleconnections, the occurrence of blocking and the slow modulation of the jet streams and storm tracks are all different aspects of low-frequency variability. Part of the latter is attributed to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and is inherently unpredictable. On the other hand, primarily as a response to boundary forcings, tropospheric low-frequency variability includes components that are potentially predictable. Seasonal forecasting faces the difficult task of predicting these components. Particularly referring to the extratropics, the current generation of seasonal forecasting systems seem to be approaching this target by realistically initializing most components of the climate system, using higher resolution and utilizing large ensemble sizes. Two seasonal prediction systems (Met-Office GloSea and CMCC-SPS-v1.5) are analyzed in terms of their representation of different aspects of extratropical low-frequency variability. The current operational Met-Office system achieves unprecedented high scores in predicting the winter-mean phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, corr. 0.74 at 500 hPa) and the Pacific-N. American pattern (PNA, corr. 0.82). The CMCC system, considering its small ensemble size and course resolution, also achieves good scores (0.42 for NAO, 0.51 for PNA). Despite these positive features, both models suffer from biases in low-frequency variance, particularly in the N. Atlantic. Consequently, it is found that their intrinsic variability patterns (sectoral EOFs) differ significantly from the observed, and the known teleconnections are underrepresented. Regarding the representation of N. hemisphere blocking, after bias correction both systems exhibit a realistic climatology of blocking frequency. In this assessment, instantaneous blocking and large-scale persistent blocking events are identified using daily geopotential height fields at

Recent advances in satellite observations of solar variability and global atmospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, D. F.

1974-01-01

A description is given of the temporal behavior of the sun as an ultraviolet variable star in relation to daily zonal means of atmospheric ozone from the total amount to that above the 10-mb and 4-mb pressure levels. A significant correlation has been observed between enhancements in the ultraviolet solar irradiances and terrestrial passages of the solar magnetic field sector boundary structure. However, it has not yet been possible to separate solar from the dynamical effects on the variability in the zonal means of ozone. Attention is given to global changes in ozone which have been derived from the satellite observations in terms of season, solar variability, and major stratospheric disturbances such as stratospheric warmings.

as response to seasonal variability

PubMed

Badano, Ernesto I; Labra, Fabio A; Martínez-Pérez, Cecilia G; Vergara, Carlos H

2016-03-01

Ecologists have been largely interested in the description and understanding of the power scaling relationships between body size and abundance of organisms. Many studies have focused on estimating the exponents of these functions across taxonomic groups and spatial scales, to draw inferences about the processes underlying this pattern. The exponents of these functions usually approximate -3/4 at geographical scales, but they deviate from this value when smaller spatial extensions are considered. This has led to propose that body size-abundance relationships at small spatial scales may reflect the impact of environmental changes. This study tests this hypothesis by examining body size spectra of benthic shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) in the Tamiahua lagoon, a brackish body water located in the Eastern coast of Mexico. We mea- sured water quality parameters (dissolved oxygen, salinity, pH, water temperature, sediment organic matter and chemical oxygen demand) and sampled benthic macrofauna during three different climatic conditions of the year (cold, dry and rainy season). Given the small size of most individuals in the benthic macrofaunal samples, we used body volume, instead of weight, to estimate their body size. Body size-abundance relationships of both taxonomic groups were described by tabulating data from each season into base-2 logarithmic body size bins. In both taxonomic groups, observed frequencies per body size class in each season were standardized to yield densities (i.e., individuals/m(3)). Nonlinear regression analyses were separately performed for each taxonomic group at each season to assess whether body size spectra followed power scaling functions. Additionally, for each taxonomic group, multiple regression analyses were used to determine whether these relationships varied among seasons. Our results indicated that, while body size-abundance relationships in both taxonomic groups followed power functions, the parameters

Impact of Variable SST on Simulated Warm Season Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleeby, S. M.; Cotton, W. R.

2007-05-01

The Colorado State University - Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CSU-RAMS) is being used to examine the variability in monsoon-related warm season precipitation over Mexico and the United States due to variability in SST. Given recent improvements and increased resolution in satellite derived SSTs it is pertinent to examine the sensitivity of the RAMS model to the variety of SST data sources that are available. In particular, we are examining this dependence across continental scales over the full warm season, as well as across the regional scale centered around the Gulf of California on time scales of individual surge events. In this study we performed an ensemble of simulations that include the 2002, 2003, and 2004 warm seasons with use of the Climatology, Reynold's, AVHRR, and MODIS SSTs. From the seasonal 90-day simulations with 30km grid spacing, it was found that variations in surface latent heat flux are directly linked to differences in SST. Regions with cooler (warmer) SST have decreased (increased) moisture flux from the ocean which is in proportion to the magnitude of the SST difference. Over the eastern Pacific, differences in low-level horizontal moisture flux show a general trend toward reduced fluxes over cooler waters and very little inland impact. Over the Gulf of Mexico, however, there is substantial variability for each dataset comparison, despite having only limited variability among the SST data. Causes of this unexpected variability are not straight-forward. Precipitation impacts are greatest near the southern coast of Mexico and along the Sierra Madres. Precipitation variability over the CONUS is rather chaotic and is limited to areas impacted by the Gulf of Mexico or monsoon convection. Another unexpected outcome is the lack of variability in areas near the northern Gulf of California where SST and latent heat flux variability is a maximum. From the 7-day surge period simulations at 7km grid spacing, we found that SST differences on the

The effect of atmospheric variability at intra-seasonal time scale on the SST of the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simionato, Claudia; Clara, Moira Luz; Jaureguizar, Andrés

2017-04-01

The Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf is characterized by large SST variability which origin remains unknown. In this work, we use blended SST data provided by NOAA CoastWatch Program, which combine the information coming from infrared and microwave sensors to provide daily images of an intermediate spatial resolution (11 km) with a noise floor of less than 0.2 °C. The data base starts at the middle of 2002, when an increase in signal variance is observed due to the fact that the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer became available and as a consequence to its near all-weather coverage. Several years of observations are thus available, and even though the temporal and spatial resolution of these data is intermediate, they are reasonable for observing and characterizing the most significant patterns of SST variability in the (atmospheric) synoptic to intra-seasonal time scales, so as to help on understanding the physical processes which occur in the area and their forcing mechanisms. As we hypothesize that most of the variability in those time scales is wind forced, the study is complemented with the use of atmospheric observations -coming from remote sensing and reanalysis-. To perform the analysis, the long-term trend, inter-annual and seasonal variability are subtracted to the SST data to obtain the signal on intra-seasonal time scales. Then, Principal Components (EOF) analysis is applied to the data and composites of SST and several meteorological variables (wind, sea level pressure, air temperature, OLR, etc.) are computed for the days when the leading modes are active. It is found that the first three modes account for more than 70% of the variance. Modes 1 and 2 seem to be related to atmospheric waves generated in the tropical Pacific. Those waves, through atmospheric teleconnections, affect the SST on the southwestern South Atlantic Continental Shelf very rapidly. The oceanic anomalies exceed 0.7°C and are quite persistent. Mode 2 seems to be

Lidar observed seasonal variation of vertical canopy structure in the Amazon evergreen forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; Dubayah, R.

2017-12-01

Both light and water are important environmental factors governing tree growth. Responses of tropical forests to their changes are complicated and can vary substantially across different spatial and temporal scales. Of particular interest is the dry-season greening-up of Amazon forests, a phenomenon undergoing considerable debates whether it is real or a "light illusion" caused by artifacts of passive optical remote sensing techniques. Here we analyze seasonal dynamic patterns of vertical canopy structure in the Amazon forests using lidar observations from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). We found that the net greening of canopy layer coincides with the wet-to-dry transition period, and its net browning occurs mostly at the late dry season. The understory also shows a seasonal cycle, but with an opposite variation to canopy and minimal correlation to seasonal variations in rainfall or radiation. Our results further suggest a potential interaction between canopy layers in the light regime that can optimize the growth of Amazon forests during the dry season. This light regime variability that exists in both spatial and temporal domains can better reveal the dry-season greening-up phenomenon, which appears less obvious when treating the Amazon forests as a whole.

Spatial and seasonal characterization of net primary productivity and climate variables in southeastern China using MODIS data*

PubMed Central

Peng, Dai-liang; Huang, Jing-feng; Huete, Alfredo R.; Yang, Tai-ming; Gao, Ping; Chen, Yan-chun; Chen, Hui; Li, Jun; Liu, Zhan-yu

2010-01-01

We developed a sophisticated method to depict the spatial and seasonal characterization of net primary productivity (NPP) and climate variables. The role of climate variability in the seasonal variation of NPP exerts delayed and continuous effects. This study expands on this by mapping the seasonal characterization of NPP and climate variables from space using geographic information system (GIS) technology at the pixel level. Our approach was developed in southeastern China using moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The results showed that air temperature, precipitation and sunshine percentage contributed significantly to seasonal variation of NPP. In the northern portion of the study area, a significant positive 32-d lagged correlation was observed between seasonal variation of NPP and climate (P<0.01), and the influences of changing climate on NPP lasted for 48 d or 64 d. In central southeastern China, NPP showed 16-d, 48-d, and 96-d lagged correlation with air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine percentage, respectively (P<0.01); the influences of air temperature and precipitation on NPP lasted for 48 d or 64 d, while sunshine influence on NPP only persisted for 16 d. Due to complex topography and vegetation distribution in the southern part of the study region, the spatial patterns of vegetation-climate relationship became complicated and diversiform, especially for precipitation influences on NPP. In the northern part of the study area, all vegetation NPP had an almost similar response to seasonal variation of air temperature except for broad crops. The impacts of seasonal variation of precipitation and sunshine on broad and cereal crop NPP were slightly different from other vegetation NPP. PMID:20349524

Intra-seasonal Scale Variability of Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiali; Pan, Laura; Honomichl, Shawn; Bergman, John; Randel, William; Francis, Gene; George, Maya; Clerbaux, Cathy; Liu, Xiong

2017-04-01

Intra-seasonal variability of chemical species in the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) is investigated using satellite observations. Day-to-day behavior of CO (a tropospheric tracer) and O3 (a stratospheric tracer) in the UTLS from both nadir viewing (IASI and OMI) and limb viewing (MLS) instruments are analyzed to: determine whether the intra-seasonal scale variability that is evident in dynamical fields is also evident in chemical species, analyze the response of chemical distributions to dynamical processes, and assess the capability of satellite data to resolve the characteristics of the ASM anticyclone in the UTLS. Both nadir and limb viewing instruments agree on the location of a CO maximum and an O3 minimum within the anticyclone, indicating the presence of tropospheric air. According to MLS, sub-seasonal anomalies of CO at 150 hPa and 100 hPa, as well as O3 at 100 hPa migrate westward from the eastern mode of the anticyclone, mimicking similar behavior found in anomalies of geopotential height. The enhanced CO within ASM anticyclone and eastern shedding of CO in UTLS is well captured in IASI data while the westward migration is weak. Both O3 data sets exhibit westward propagating anomalies at 100 hPa and neither exhibits the eastern shedding. Vertical profiles of CO from IASI indicate that the relatively high CO in the ASM anticyclone is associated with the upward transport in troposphere.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice: A comparison between AO-FVCOM and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Gao, Guoping; Qi, Jianhua; Lin, Huichan

2016-11-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the sea ice in the Arctic over the period 1978-2014. The spatial-varying horizontal model resolution was designed to better resolve both topographic and baroclinic dynamics scales over the Arctic slope and narrow straits. The model-simulated sea ice was in good agreement with available observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, not only in seasonal and interannual variability but also in spatial distribution. Compared with six other Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME, and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher mean correlation coefficient of ˜0.63 and a smaller residual with observations. Model-produced ice drift speed and direction errors varied with wind speed: the speed and direction errors increased and decreased as the wind speed increased, respectively. Efforts were made to examine the influences of parameterizations of air-ice external and ice-water interfacial stresses on the model-produced bias. The ice drift direction was more sensitive to air-ice drag coefficients and turning angles than the ice drift speed. Increasing or decreasing either 10% in water-ice drag coefficient or 10° in water-ice turning angle did not show a significant influence on the ice drift velocity simulation results although the sea ice drift speed was more sensitive to these two parameters than the sea ice drift direction. Using the COARE 4.0-derived parameterization of air-water drag coefficient for wind stress did not significantly influence the ice drift velocity simulation.

Seasonal and interannual variability of carbon monoxide based on MOZAIC observations, MACC reanalysis, and model simulations over an urban site in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheel, Varun; Sahu, L. K.; Kajino, M.; Deushi, M.; Stein, O.; Nedelec, P.

2014-07-01

The spatial and temporal variations of carbon monoxide (CO) are analyzed over a tropical urban site, Hyderabad (17°27'N, 78°28'E) in central India. We have used vertical profiles from the Measurement of ozone and water vapor by Airbus in-service aircraft (MOZAIC) aircraft observations, Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis, and two chemical transport model simulations (Model for Ozone And Related Tracers (MOZART) and MRI global Chemistry Climate Model (MRI-CCM2)) for the years 2006-2008. In the lower troposphere, the CO mixing ratio showed strong seasonality, with higher levels (>300 ppbv) during the winter and premonsoon seasons associated with a stable anticyclonic circulation, while lower CO values (up to 100 ppbv) were observed in the monsoon season. In the planetary boundary layer (PBL), the seasonal distribution of CO shows the impact of both local meteorology and emissions. While the PBL CO is predominantly influenced by strong winds, bringing regional background air from marine and biomass burning regions, under calm conditions CO levels are elevated by local emissions. On the other hand, in the free troposphere, seasonal variation reflects the impact of long-range transport associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and biomass burning. The interannual variations were mainly due to transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions. The overall modified normalized mean biases (normalization based on the observed and model mean values) with respect to the observed CO profiles were lower for the MACC reanalysis than the MOZART and MRI-CCM2 models. The CO in the PBL region was consistently underestimated by MACC reanalysis during all the seasons, while MOZART and MRI-CCM2 show both positive and negative biases depending on the season.

Seasonal forecasts in the Sahel region: the use of rainfall-based predictive variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lodoun, Tiganadaba; Sanon, Moussa; Giannini, Alessandra; Traoré, Pierre Sibiry; Somé, Léopold; Rasolodimby, Jeanne Millogo

2014-08-01

In the Sahel region, seasonal predictions are crucial to alleviate the impacts of climate variability on populations' livelihoods. Agricultural planning (e.g., decisions about sowing date, fertilizer application date, and choice of crop or cultivar) is based on empirical predictive indices whose accuracy to date has not been scientifically proven. This paper attempts to statistically test whether the pattern of rainfall distribution over the May-July period contributes to predicting the real onset date and the nature (wet or dry) of the rainy season, as farmers believe. To that end, we considered historical records of daily rainfall from 51 stations spanning the period 1920-2008 and the different agro-climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We performed (1) principal component analysis to identify climatic zones, based on the patterns of intra-seasonal rainfall, (2) and linear discriminant analysis to find the best rainfall-based variables to distinguish between real and false onset dates of the rainy season, and between wet and dry seasons in each climatic zone. A total of nine climatic zones were identified in each of which, based on rainfall records from May to July, we derived linear discriminant functions to correctly predict the nature of a potential onset date of the rainy season (real or false) and that of the rainy season (dry or wet) in at least three cases out of five. These functions should contribute to alleviating the negative impacts of climate variability in the different climatic zones of Burkina Faso.

Seasonality, Water Quality Variability and Diarrheal Disease in Northern Coastal Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, K.; Hubbard, A. E.; Nelson, K. L.; Eisenberg, J. N.

2008-12-01

Objective Seasonality plays a key role in determining incidence of infectious diseases. Diarrheal diseases in particular show seasonal trends, with bacterial pathogens usually peaking in warmer months and viral pathogens peaking in cooler, dryer months. However, studies of the impacts of water quality on diarrheal disease are usually undertaken cross-sectionally, over a short period of time. In this study, we explore how seasonality affects diarrheal disease incidence in a rural area of northern coastal Ecuador, using longer-term datasets. Materials and Methods We use water quality data (as measured by E.coli counts) for both source and in-home water samples collected on a weekly basis over the course of one year in one village. We test the relationship between weekly variability in water quality and diarrheal disease incidence, water treatment and water storage practices in the home. Results We find that peaks in geometric mean values of microbial contamination of source waters often correspond to peaks in weekly village diarrhea incidence in the wet season, but not in the dry season. We also find that perceptions of villagers about water cleanliness do not correspond to levels of microbial contamination; people are more likely to treat their water in the dry season, whereas microbial contamination of source waters peaks in the wet season. We relate these findings to a broader analysis of the relationship between weekly rainfall and diarrheal disease incidence in 21 villages across a larger region over the course of five years. Conclusions Our findings suggest that seasonal variability plays a role in the relationship between water quality and waterborne disease. A consideration of seasonality can help guide public health interventions, by targeting messages about water treatment at times when people are most at risk for waterborne disease. These data can also help inform projections of the impact of climate change on waterborne disease.

Seasonal variability of microbial biomass phosphorus in urban soils.

PubMed

Halecki, W; Gąsiorek, M

2015-01-01

Urban soils have been formed through human activities. Seasonal evaluation with time-control procedure are essential for plant, and activity of microorganisms. Therefore, these processes are crucial in the urban area due to geochemical changes in the past years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes of content of microbial biomass phosphorus (P) in the top layer of soils throughout the season. In this research, the concentration of microbial biomass P ranged from 0.01 to 6.29 mg·kg(-1). We used single-factor repeated-measure analysis of variance to test the effect of season on microbial biomass P content of selected urban soils. We found no statistically significant differences between the concentration of microbial biomass P in the investigated urban and sub-urban soils during the growing season. This analysis explicitly recognised that environmental urban conditions are steady. Specifically, we have studied how vegetation seasonality and ability of microbial biomass P are useful for detecting quality deviations, which affect the equilibrium of urban soil. In conclusion, seasonal variability of the stringency of assurance across the different compounds of soil reveals, as expected, the stable condition of the urban soils. Seasonal responses in microbial biomass P under urban soil use should establish a framework as a reference to the activity of the microorganisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms for Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Salinity Variability in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, J.; Stammer, D.; Serra, N.; Bryan, F.

2016-12-01

Space-borne salinity data in the Indian Ocean are analyzed over the period 2000-2015 based on data from the European Space Agency's (ESA) "Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity" (SMOS) and the National Aeronautical Space Agency's (NASA) "Aquarius/SAC-D" missions. The seasonal variability is the dominant mode of sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the Indian Ocean, accounting for more than 50% of salinity variance. Through a combined analysis of the satellite and ARGO data, dominant forcing terms for seasonal salinity changes are identified. It is found, that E-P controls seasonal salinity tendency in the western Indian Ocean, where the ITCZ has a strong seasonal cycle. In contrast, Ekman advection is the dominant term in the northern and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The influence of vertical processes on the salinity tendency is enhanced in coastal upwelling regions and south of the equator due to mid-ocean upwelling. Jointly those processes can explain most of the observed seasonal cycle with a correlation of 0.85 and an RMS difference of 0.07/month. However, the detailed composition of driving terms depends on underlying data products. In general, our study confirms previous results from Lisan Yu (2011); however, in the eastern Indian Ocean contrasting results indicate the leading role of meridional Ekman advection to the seasonal salinity tendency instead of surface external forces due to precipitation. The inferred dominant salinity budget terms are confirmed by results obtained from a high resolution NCAR Core model run driven by NCEP forcing fields. From an EOF analysis of the salinity fields after substracting the annual and semiannual cycle we found that the first EOF mode explains more than 20% of salinity variance. The first principal component of SSS EOF is correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index. Nevertheless the EOF pattern shows a meridional tripole structure, while the IOD describes a zonal SST dipole (Saji et al, 1999).

Seasonal variability of the carbonate system and coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi at a Scottish Coastal Observatory monitoring site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

León, Pablo; Walsham, Pam; Bresnan, Eileen; Hartman, Susan E.; Hughes, Sarah; Mackenzie, Kevin; Webster, Lynda

2018-03-01

Lack of information about carbonate chemistry in inshore waters is a 'knowledge gap' in assessing the impacts of changing carbonate chemistry on the marine environment. Assessing the response of calcifying phytoplankton to this changing carbonate chemistry requires a greater understanding of temporal variation. This study provides a description of the variability of carbonate parameters at a monitoring site in the eastern coast of Scotland. Four-years of monthly data were analysed to assess the diversity, abundance and morphometrics of coccolithophores in relation to carbonate chemistry and environmental variables. The seasonality in carbonate parameters reflected the seasonal cycle in phytoplankton activity, with higher total alkalinity concentrations and pH and lower dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations during the growing season. The dominant coccolithophore at the site was Emiliania huxleyi which showed a clear seasonal pattern, being more abundant in mid-summer when warmer and nutrient-depleted conditions restricted the annual diatom bloom. This study revealed the presence of three morphotypes of E. huxleyi, type A, type A overcalcified (type AO) and type B, which were seasonally distributed throughout the year. The less calcified form was mainly observed in spring while heavily calcified morphotypes overlapped during summer. Autumn and winter months were dominated by the most calcified form (type AO). These results indicate that the seasonal pattern of E. huxleyi morphotypes was not related to the carbonate concentration at the site. This study reflects the strong interannual variability in carbonate chemistry and the complexity associated with coccolithophore calcification, and highlights the need of long-term data to understand the potential impact of ocean acidification on calcifying phytoplankton.

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

What controls the seasonal cycle of columnar methane observed by GOSAT over different regions in India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Naveen; Hayashida, Sachiko; Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

2017-10-01

Methane (CH4) is one of the most important short-lived climate forcers for its critical roles in greenhouse warming and air pollution chemistry in the troposphere, and the water vapor budget in the stratosphere. It is estimated that up to about 8 % of global CH4 emissions occur from South Asia, covering less than 1 % of the global land. With the availability of satellite observations from space, variability in CH4 has been captured for most parts of the global land with major emissions, which were otherwise not covered by the surface observation network. The satellite observation of the columnar dry-air mole fractions of methane (XCH4) is an integrated measure of CH4 densities at all altitudes from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. Here, we present an analysis of XCH4 variability over different parts of India and the surrounding cleaner oceanic regions as measured by the Greenhouse gases Observation SATellite (GOSAT) and simulated by an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM). Distinct seasonal variations of XCH4 have been observed over the northern (north of 15° N) and southern (south of 15° N) parts of India, corresponding to the peak during the southwestern monsoon (July-September) and early autumn (October-December) seasons, respectively. Analysis of the transport, emission, and chemistry contributions to XCH4 using ACTM suggests that a distinct XCH4 seasonal cycle over northern and southern regions of India is governed by both the heterogeneous distributions of surface emissions and a contribution of the partial CH4 column in the upper troposphere. Over most of the northern Indian Gangetic Plain regions, up to 40 % of the peak-to-trough amplitude during the southwestern (SW) monsoon season is attributed to the lower troposphere ( ˜ 1000-600 hPa), and ˜ 40 % to uplifted high-CH4 air masses in the upper troposphere ( ˜ 600-200 hPa). In contrast, the XCH4 seasonal enhancement over semi-arid western India is attributed mainly ( ˜ 70 %) to the

Seasonal variability of the Canary Current: A numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Evan; Colas, Francois; Molemaker, Jeroen; Shchepetkin, Alexander F.; Troupin, Charles; McWilliams, James C.; Sangrã, Pablo

2011-06-01

A high-resolution numerical model study of the Canary Basin in the northeast subtropical Atlantic Ocean is presented. A long-term climatological solution from the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) reveals mesoscale variability associated with the Azores and Canary Current systems, the northwest African coastal upwelling, and the Canary Island archipelago. The primary result concerns the Canary Current (CanC) which, in the solution, transports ˜3 Sv southward in line with observations. The simulated CanC has a well-defined path with pronounced seasonal variability. This variability is shown to be mediated by the westward passage of two large annually excited counterrotating anomalous structures that originate at the African coast. The anomalies have a sea surface expression, permitting their validation using altimetry and travel at the phase speed of baroclinic planetary (Rossby) waves. The role of nearshore wind stress curl variability as a generating mechanism for the anomalies is confirmed through a sensitivity experiment forced by low-resolution winds. The resulting circulation is weak in comparison to the base run, but the propagating anomalies are still discernible, so we cannot discount a further role in their generation being played by annual reversals of the large-scale boundary flow that are known to occur along the African margin. An additional sensitivity experiment, where the Azores Current is removed by closing the Strait of Gibraltar presents the same anomalies and CanC behavior as the base run, suggesting that the CanC is rather insensitive to upstream variability from the Azores Current.

The Karakoram/Western Tibetan vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Feng; Fowler, Hayley J.; Forsythe, Nathan; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Pritchard, David

2018-02-01

The "Karakoram Vortex" (KV), hereafter also referred to as the "Western Tibetan Vortex" (WTV), has recently been recognized as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system related to warmer (cooler) near-surface and mid-lower troposphere temperatures above the Karakoram in the western Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is characterized by a deep, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) wind anomaly associated with higher (lower) geopotential height in the troposphere, during winter and summer seasons. In this study, we further investigate the seasonality and basic features of the WTV in all four seasons, and explore its year-to-year variability and influence on regional climate. We find the WTV accounts for the majority of year-to-year circulation variability over the WTP as it can explain over 50% ({R^2} ≥slant 0.5 ) variance of the WTP circulation on multiple levels throughout the troposphere, which declines towards the eastern side of the TP in most seasons. The WTV is not only more (less) active but also has a bigger (smaller) domain area, with a deeper (shallower) structure, in winter and spring (summer and autumn). We find that the WTV is sensitive to both the location and intensity of the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), but the relationship is highly dependent on the climatological mean location of SWJ axes relative to the TP in different seasons. We also show that the WTV significantly modulates surface and stratospheric air temperatures, north-south precipitation patterns and total column ozone surrounding the western TP. As such, the WTV has important implications for the understanding of atmospheric, hydrological and glaciological variability over the TP.

Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

PubMed

Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

2017-10-27

Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

ROTATIONAL AND CYCLICAL VARIABILITY IN {gamma} CASSIOPEIAE. II. FIFTEEN SEASONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henry, Gregory W.; Smith, Myron A., E-mail: gregory.w.henry@gmail.com, E-mail: msmith@stsci.edu

The B0.5 IVe star {gamma} Cas is of great interest because it is the prototype of a small group of classical Be stars having hard X-ray emission of unknown origin. We discuss results from ongoing B and V observations of the {gamma} Cas star-disk system acquired with an Automated Photometric Telescope during the observing seasons 1997-2011. In an earlier study, Smith, Henry, and Vishniac showed that light variations in {gamma} Cas are dominated by a series of comparatively prominent cycles with amplitudes of 0.02-0.03 mag and lengths of 2-3 months, superimposed on a 1.21 day periodic signal some five timesmore » smaller, which they attributed to rotation. The cycle lengths clustered around 70 days, with a total range of 50-91 days. Changes in both cycle length and amplitude were observed from year to year. These authors also found the V-band cycles to be 30%-40% larger than the B-band cycles. In the present study, we find continued evidence for these variability patterns and for the bimodal distribution of the {Delta}B/{Delta}V amplitude ratios in the long cycles. During the 2010 observing season, {gamma} Cas underwent a mass-loss event ({sup o}utburst{sup )}, as evidenced by the brightening and reddening seen in our new photometry. This episode coincided with a waning of the amplitude in the ongoing cycle. The Be outburst ended the following year, and the light-curve amplitude returned to pre-outburst levels. This behavior reinforces the interpretation that cycles arise from a global disk instability. We have determined a more precise value of the rotation period, 1.215811 {+-} 0.000030 days, using the longer 15-season data set and combining solutions from the V and B light curves. Remarkably, we also find that both the amplitude and the asymmetry of the rotational waveform changed over the years. We review arguments for this modulation arising from transits of a surface magnetic disturbance. Finally, to a limit of 5 mmag, we find no evidence for any photometric

Seasonal variability of Internal tide energetics in the western Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, S.; Rao, A. D.

2017-12-01

The Internal Waves (IWs) are generated by the flow of barotropic tide over the rapidly varying and steep topographic features like continental shelf slope, seamounts, etc. These waves are an important phenomena in the ocean due to their influence on the density structure and energy transfer into the region. Such waves are also important in submarine acoustics, underwater navigation, offshore structures, ocean mixing and biogeochemical processes, etc. over the shelf-slope region. The seasonal variability of internal tides in the western Bay of Bengal is examined by using three-dimensional MITgcm model. The numerical simulations are performed for different periods covering August-September, 2013; November-December, 2013 and March-April, 2014 representing monsoon, post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons respectively during which high temporal resolution observed data sets are available. The model is initially validated through the spectral estimate of density and the baroclinic velocities. From the estimate, it is found that its peak is associated with the semi-diurnal frequency at all the depths in both observations and model simulations for November-December and March-April. However in August, the estimate is found to be maximum near the inertial frequency at all available depths. EOF analysis suggests that about 70-80% of the total variance comes from Mode-1 semi-diurnal internal tide in both observations as well as in the model simulations. The phase speed, group speed and wavelength are found to be maximum for post-monsoon season compared to other two seasons. To understand the generation and propagation of internal tides over this region, barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 tidal energy conversion and energy flux are examined. The barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion occurs intensively along the shelf-slope regions and propagate towards the coast. The model simulated energy dissipation rate infers that its maximum occurs at the generation sites and hence the local mixing

Seasonal variability shapes resilience of small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico.

PubMed

Pellowe, Kara E; Leslie, Heather M

2017-01-01

Small-scale fisheries are an important source of food and livelihoods to coastal communities around the world. Understanding the seasonality of fisheries catch and composition is crucial to fisheries management, particularly in the context of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. While seasonal variability directly impacts the lives of fishers, most fisheries studies focus on longer-term change. Here we examine seasonal variability in the small-scale fisheries of Baja California Sur, Mexico based on 13 years of government fisheries data. We investigate how four fisheries indicators with direct relevance to ecological resilience-magnitude and variance of landed fish biomass, taxon richness and the proportion of top-trophic-level taxa in total catch-vary within and among years and at multiple spatial scales. We find that these resilience indicators vary both seasonally and spatially. These results highlight the value of finer-scale monitoring and management, particularly for data-poor fisheries.

Seasonal variability shapes resilience of small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico

PubMed Central

Leslie, Heather M.

2017-01-01

Small-scale fisheries are an important source of food and livelihoods to coastal communities around the world. Understanding the seasonality of fisheries catch and composition is crucial to fisheries management, particularly in the context of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. While seasonal variability directly impacts the lives of fishers, most fisheries studies focus on longer-term change. Here we examine seasonal variability in the small-scale fisheries of Baja California Sur, Mexico based on 13 years of government fisheries data. We investigate how four fisheries indicators with direct relevance to ecological resilience–magnitude and variance of landed fish biomass, taxon richness and the proportion of top-trophic-level taxa in total catch–vary within and among years and at multiple spatial scales. We find that these resilience indicators vary both seasonally and spatially. These results highlight the value of finer-scale monitoring and management, particularly for data-poor fisheries. PMID:28783740

Seasonal Variations of Oceanographic Variables and Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) Catches in the North Indramayu Waters Java Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamsuddin, Mega; Sunarto; Yuliadi, Lintang

2018-02-01

The remotely derived oceanographic variables included sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) catches are used as a combined dataset to understand the seasonal variation of oceanographic variables and Eastern Little Tuna catches in the north Indramayu waters, Java Sea. The fish catches and remotely sensed data were analysed for the 5 years datasets from 2010-2014. This study has shown the effect of monsoon inducing oceanographic condition in the study area. Seasonal change features were dominant for all the selected oceanographic parameters of SST and Chl-a, and also Eastern Little Tuna catches, respectively. The Eastern Little Tuna catch rates have the peak season from September to December (700 to 1000) ton that corresponded with the value of SST ranging from 29 °C to 30 °C following the decreasing of Chl-a concentrations in September to November (0.4 to 0.5) mg m-3. The monsoonal system plays a great role in determining the variability of oceanographic conditions and catch in the north Indramayu waters, Java Sea. The catches seemed higher during the northwest monsoon than in the southeast monsoon for all year observations except in 2010. The wavelet spectrum analysis results confirmed that Eastern Little Tuna catches had seasonal and inter-annual variations during 2012-2014. The SST had seasonal variations during 2010-2014. The Chl-a also showed seasonal variations during 2010-2011 and interannual variations during 2011-2014. Our results would benefit the fishermen and policy makers to have better management for sustainable catch in the study area.

Seasonal and nonseasonal variability of satellite-derived surface pigment concentration in the California Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strub, P. Ted; James, Corinne; Thomas, Andrew C.; Abbott, Mark R.

1990-01-01

The large-scale patterns of satellite-derived surface pigment concentration off the west coast of North America are presented and are averaged into monthly mean surface wind fields over the California Current system (CCS) for the July 1979 to June 1986 period. The patterns are discussed in terms of both seasonal and nonseasonal variability for the indicated time period. The large-scale seasonal characteristics of the California Current are summarized. The data and methods used are described, and the problems known to affect the satellite-derived pigment concentrations and the wind data used in the study are discussed. The statistical analysis results are then presented and discussed in light of past observations and theory. Details of the CZCS data processing are described, and details of the principal estimator pattern methodology used here are given.

Seasonal variability of soil-gas radon concentration in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.; Minissale, A.

1994-01-01

Radon concentrations in soil gas were measured by the track-etch method in 60 shallow holes, each 70 cm deep and supported by a capped plastic tube, along several major faults in central California during 1975-1985. This set of data was analyzed to investigate the seasonal variability of soil-gas radon concentration in an area which has various geological conditions but similar climate. The results show several different patterns of seasonal variations, but all of which can be largely attributed to the water-saturation and moisture-retention characteristics of the shallow part of the soil. During the rainy winter and spring seasons, radon tended to be confined underground by the water-saturated surface soil which had much reduced gas permeability, while during the sunny summer and autumn seasons, it exhaled more readily as the soil became drier and more permeable. At several sites located on creeping faults, the radon-variation patterns changed with time, possibly because of disturbance of site condition by fault movement. ?? 1994.

Seasonal cycle of the mixed layer depth, of the seasonal thermocline and of the upper-ocean heat rate in the Mediterranean Sea: an observational approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houpert, Loïc; Testor, Pierre; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Somot, Samuel; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Estournel, Claude; Lavigne, Héloïse

2014-05-01

We present a relatively high resolution Mediterranean climatology (0.5°x0.5°x12 months) of the seasonal thermocline based on a comprehensive collection of temperature profiles of the last 44 years (1969-2012). The database includes more than 190,000 profiles, merging CTD, XBT, profiling floats, and gliders observations. This data set is first used to describe the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer depth and of the seasonal thermocline and on the whole Mediterranean on a monthly climatological basis. Our analysis discriminates several regions with coherent behaviors, in particular the deep water formation sites, characterized by significant differences in the winter mixing intensity. Heat Storage Rate (HSR) is calculated as the time rate of change of the heat content due to variations in the temperature integrated from the surface down to the base of the seasonal thermocline. Heat Entrainment Rate (HER) is calculated as the time rate of change of the heat content due to the deepening of thermocline base. We propose a new independent estimate of the seasonal cycle of the Net surface Heat Flux, calculated on average over the Mediterranean Sea for the 1979-2011 period, based only on in-situ observations. We used our new climatologies of HSR and of HER, combined to existing climatology of the horizontal heat flux at Gibraltar Strait. Although there is a good agreement between our estimation of NHF, from observations, with modeled NHF, some differences may be noticed during specific periods. A part of these differences may be explained by the high temporal and spatial variability of the Mixed Layer Depth and of the seasonal thermocline, responsible for very localized heat transfer in the ocean.

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Kang, In-Sik; Waliser, Duane; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Results from the First Two Observing Seasons of PIQUE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gundersen, Joshua; Barkats, Denis; Hedman, Matt; Staggs, Suzanne; Winstein, Bruce

2001-04-01

We report on the first two seasons of the Princeton IQU Experiment (PIQUE). PIQUE is a ground-based telescope designed to measure the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). During the first season (1/19/00-4/2/00), PIQUE measured the Q Stokes parameter on a ring at declination of 89 degrees from the roof of the Physics Department at Princeton University using a 90 GHz correlation polarimeter with a full-width-half maximum beam of 0.24 degrees. PIQUE's observations from the first season yielded a new limit on the polarization of the CMB in the multipole range 100season (currently in progress), PIQUE will measure the U Stokes parameter in the same ring using a combination of the 90 GHz polarimeter and a new 40 GHz polarimeter. Preliminary results from these observations will be presented.

Variability of western Amazon dry-season precipitation extremes: importance of decadal fluctuations and implications for predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Giannini, A.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2014-12-01

A complete assessment of climate change projections requires understanding the combined effects of decadal variability and long-term trends and evaluating the ability of models to simulate them. The western Amazon severe droughts of the 2000s were the result of a modest drying trend enhanced by reduced moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. Most of the WA dry-season precipitation decadal variability is attributable to decadal fluctuations of the north-south gradient (NSG) in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The observed WA and NSG decadal co-variability is well reproduced in Global Climate Models (GCMs) pre-industrial control (PIC) and historical (HIST) experiments that were part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report (IPCC-AR5). This suggests that unforced or natural climate variability, characteristic of the PIC simulations, determines the nature of this coupling, as the results from HIST simulations (forced with greenhouse gases (GHG) and natural and anthropogenic aerosols) are comparable in magnitude and spatial distribution. Decadal fluctuation in the NSG also determines shifts in the probability of repeated droughts and pluvials in WA, as there is a 65% chance of 3 or more years of droughts per decade when NSG>0 compared to 18% when NSG<0. The HIST and PIC model simulations also reproduce the observed shifts in probability distribution of droughts and pluvials as a function of the NSG decadal phase, suggesting there is great potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase may lead to continuing above normal frequencies of western Amazon dry-season droughts.

Seasonal variability of atmospheric surface layer characteristics and weather pattern in Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Cheng, Way Lee; Sadr, Reza

2016-11-01

Qatar's economy is based on oil and gas industry, which are mostly located in coastal regions. Therefore, better understanding of coastal weather, characteristics of surface layer and turbulence exchange processes is much needed. However, the turbulent atmospheric layer study in this region is severely limited. To support the broader aim and study long term precise wind information, a micro-meteorological field campaign has been carried out in a coastal location of north Qatar. The site is based on a 9 m tower, installed at Al Ghariya in the northern coast of Qatar, equipped with three sonic anemometers, temperature-humidity sensor, radiometer and a weather station. This study shows results based on the period August 2015 to July 2016. Various surface layer characteristics and modellings coefficients based on Monin Obukhov similarity theory is studied for the year and seasonal change is noted. Along with the seasonal variabilities of different weather parameters also observed. We hope this long term field observational study will be very much helpful for research community especially for modelers. In addition, two beach and shoreline monitoring cameras installed at the site could give first time information on waves and shoreline changes, and wind-wave interaction in Qatar. An Preliminary Analysis of Wind-Wave Interaction in Qatar in the Context of Changing Climate.

Variability of Radiosonde-Observed Precipitable Water in the Baltic Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakobson, Erko; Ohvril, H.; Okulov, O.

The total mass of columnar water vapor (precipitable water, W) is an important parameter of atmospheric thermodynamic and radiative models. In this work radiosonde observations from 17 aerological stations in the Baltic region during 14 years, 1989?2002, were used to examine the variability of precipitable water. A table of monthly and annual means of W for the stations is given. Seasonal and annual means of W are expressed as linear functions of geographical latitude. Linear formulas are also derived for parameterization of precipitable water as function of surface water vapor pressure at each station.

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-09-13

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations

Seasonal variability in global eddy diffusion and the effect on neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M. D.; Crowley, G.

2015-04-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics global circulation model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy diffusivity models. Eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the root-mean-square sum for the TIME-GCM model is reduced by an average of 5% when compared to density data from a variety of satellites, indicating that the fidelity of global density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates that eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are limitations to this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion which is also consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Plant Trait Diversity Buffers Variability in Denitrification Potential over Changes in Season and Soil Conditions

PubMed Central

McGill, Bonnie M.; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.; Wright, Justin P.

2010-01-01

Background Denitrification is an important ecosystem service that removes nitrogen (N) from N-polluted watersheds, buffering soil, stream, and river water quality from excess N by returning N to the atmosphere before it reaches lakes or oceans and leads to eutrophication. The denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) assay is widely used for measuring denitrification potential. Because DEA is a function of enzyme levels in soils, most ecologists studying denitrification have assumed that DEA is less sensitive to ambient levels of nitrate (NO3 −) and soil carbon and thus, less variable over time than field measurements. In addition, plant diversity has been shown to have strong effects on microbial communities and belowground processes and could potentially alter the functional capacity of denitrifiers. Here, we examined three questions: (1) Does DEA vary through the growing season? (2) If so, can we predict DEA variability with environmental variables? (3) Does plant functional diversity affect DEA variability? Methodology/Principal Findings The study site is a restored wetland in North Carolina, US with native wetland herbs planted in monocultures or mixes of four or eight species. We found that denitrification potentials for soils collected in July 2006 were significantly greater than for soils collected in May and late August 2006 (p<0.0001). Similarly, microbial biomass standardized DEA rates were significantly greater in July than May and August (p<0.0001). Of the soil variables measured—soil moisture, organic matter, total inorganic nitrogen, and microbial biomass—none consistently explained the pattern observed in DEA through time. There was no significant relationship between DEA and plant species richness or functional diversity. However, the seasonal variance in microbial biomass standardized DEA rates was significantly inversely related to plant species functional diversity (p<0.01). Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that higher plant

Seasonal variability in bio-optical properties along the coastal waters off Cochin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnu, P. S.; Shaju, S. S.; Tiwari, S. P.; Menon, Nandini; Nashad, M.; Joseph, C. Ajith; Raman, Mini; Hatha, Mohamed; Prabhakaran, M. P.; Mohandas, A.

2018-04-01

Strong seasonal upwelling, downwelling, changes in current patterns and the volume of freshwater discharge from Cochin Estuary defines the coastal waters off Cochin. These coastal waters were investigated through monthly sampling efforts during March 2015 to February 2016 to study the seasonal and spatial variability in bio-optical properties for the four different seasons mainly Spring Inter Monsoon (SIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Fall Inter Monsoon (FIM) and Winter Monsoon (WM). The Barmouth region is the meeting place where freshwater from Cochin Estuary directly enters to the sea through a single narrow outlet, was dominated by highly turbid waters during the entire period of study. Among the four seasons, chlorophyll a (Chl_a) concentration showed a high value during SWM, ranged from 2.90 to 11.66 mg m-3 with an average value of 6.56 ± 3.51 mg m-3. During SIM the distribution of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is controlled by decomposition of phytoplankton biomass and the river discharge, whereas during SWM the temporal distribution of CDOM is controlled only by river discharge. The highest value for CDOM spectral slope (SCDOM) was observed during SWM, ranged from 0.013 to 0.020 nm-1 with an average value of 0.015 ± 0.002 nm-1. During WM, the high SCDOM with lower aCDOM (443) indicates the photo-degradation affects the absorption characteristics of CDOM. The observed nonlinearity between Chl_a and the ratio of phytoplankton absorption aph (443)/aph (670) indicating the packaging effect and changes in the intercellular composition of pigments. During the study period, aph (670) was strongly correlated with Chl_a than aph (443), which explains the accessory pigment absorption dominating more than Chl_a in the blue part of the spectrum. Similarly, the results obtained from seasonal bio-optical data indicating that Chl_a significantly contributes light attenuation of the water column during SIM, whereas detritus (ad) significantly contributes light

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Seasonal albedo of an urban/rural landscape from satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brest, Christopher L.

1987-01-01

Using data from 27 calibrated Landsat observations of the Hartford, Connecticut area, the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of surface reflectance and albedo were examined. Mean values of visible reflectance, near-IR reflectance, and albedo are presented (for both snow-free and snow-cover observations) according to 14 land use/land cover categories. A diversity of albedo values was found to exist in this type of environment, associated with land cover. Many land-cover categories display a seasonal dependence, with intracategory seasonal differences being of comparable magnitude to intercategory differences. Key factors in determining albedo (and its seasonal dynamics) are the presence or absence of vegetation and the canopy structure. Snow-cover/snow-free differences range from a few percent (for urban land covers) to over 40 percent (for low-canopy vegetation).

Comparison of the Seasonal Change in Cloud-Radiative Forcing from Atmospheric General Circulation Models and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M. H.; Potter, G. L.; Alekseev, V.; Barker, H. W.; Bony, S.; Colman, R. A.; Dazlich, D. A.; DelGenio, A. D.; Deque, M.;

Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xueref-Remy, Irène; Dieudonné, Elsa; Vuillemin, Cyrille; Lopez, Morgan; Lac, Christine; Schmidt, Martina; Delmotte, Marc; Chevallier, Frédéric; Ravetta, François; Perrussel, Olivier; Ciais, Philippe; Bréon, François-Marie; Broquet, Grégoire; Ramonet, Michel; Spain, T. Gerard; Ampe, Christophe

2018-03-01

Most of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions arise from urbanized and industrialized areas. Bottom-up inventories quantify them but with large uncertainties. In 2010-2011, the first atmospheric in situ CO2 measurement network for Paris, the capital of France, began operating with the aim of monitoring the regional atmospheric impact of the emissions coming from this megacity. Five stations sampled air along a northeast-southwest axis that corresponds to the direction of the dominant winds. Two stations are classified as rural (Traînou - TRN; Montgé-en-Goële - MON), two are peri-urban (Gonesse - GON; Gif-sur-Yvette - GIF) and one is urban (EIF, located on top of the Eiffel Tower). In this study, we analyze the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of the in situ CO2 measurements over nearly 1 year (8 August 2010-13 July 2011). We compare these datasets with remote CO2 measurements made at Mace Head (MHD) on the Atlantic coast of Ireland and support our analysis with atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) observations made in the center of Paris and with both modeled and observed meteorological fields. The average hourly CO2 diurnal cycles observed at the regional stations are mostly driven by the CO2 biospheric cycle, the ABLH cycle and the proximity to urban CO2 emissions. Differences of several µmol mol-1 (ppm) can be observed from one regional site to the other. The more the site is surrounded by urban sources (mostly residential and commercial heating, and traffic), the more the CO2 concentration is elevated, as is the associated variability which reflects the variability of the urban sources. Furthermore, two sites with inlets high above ground level (EIF and TRN) show a phase shift of the CO2 diurnal cycle of a few hours compared to lower sites due to a strong coupling with the boundary layer diurnal cycle. As a consequence, the existence of a CO2 vertical gradient above Paris can be inferred, whose amplitude depends on the time of the day and on

Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system.

PubMed

Ohde, Thomas; Dadou, Isabelle

2018-01-01

We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) for the 2002-2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area). The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, increased mass

Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system

PubMed Central

Dadou, Isabelle

2018-01-01

We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) for the 2002–2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area). The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, increased mass

Seasonal Variability in Vitamin D Levels No Longer Detectable in Primary Hyperparathyroidism.

PubMed

Cong, Elaine; Walker, Marcella D; Kepley, Anna; Zhang, Chiyuan; McMahon, Donald J; Silverberg, Shonni J

2015-09-01

Seasonal variability in 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and PTH levels in the general population has been associated with differences in bone turnover markers, bone density, and fracture risk. Seasonal variability in 25(OH)D and PTH levels has also been reported in primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). Given the widespread use of vitamin D supplements, we sought to determine whether patients with PHPT still demonstrated seasonal variation in 25(OH)D levels. This cross-sectional study was conducted at a university medical center at a Northeastern U.S. latitude (New York, NY). One hundred patients with PHPT participated in the study. We assessed vitamin D supplement use and seasonal variation in serum 25(OH)D. Patients had PHPT ([mean ± SD] calcium, 10.8 ± 1.0 mg/dL; PTH, 85 ± 48 pg/mL) with a mean 25(OH)D level of 29 ± 10 ng/mL. Although only one fifth of participants had vitamin D deficiency (19% < 20 ng/mL), more than half were either deficient or insufficient (54% < 30 ng/mL). Sun exposure varied by season, but there were no seasonal differences in levels of 25(OH)D, PTH, bone markers, or bone mineral density, or in the prevalence of 25(OH)D less than 20 or less than 30 ng/mL. Most of the participants (65%) took supplemental vitamin D (dose among users: mean, 1643 ± 1496 IU; median, 1000 IU daily), and supplement users had markedly better vitamin D status than nonusers (25(OH)D < 20 ng/mL: 8 vs 40%; P < .0001; < 30 ng/mL: 40 vs 80%; P = .0001; ≥ 30 ng/mL: 60 vs 20%; P = .0001). We found no evidence of seasonal variation in 25(OH)D levels or PHPT disease severity in the Northeastern United States. This change is likely due to widespread high vitamin D supplement intake, which has resulted in better vitamin D status among supplement users and can mask the effect of season on serum 25(OH)D levels.

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Seasonal variability and influence of outdoor temperature on body temperature of cardiac arrest victims.

PubMed

Stratil, Peter; Wallmueller, Christian; Schober, Andreas; Stoeckl, Mathias; Hoerburger, David; Weiser, Christoph; Testori, Christoph; Krizanac, Danica; Spiel, Alexander; Uray, Thomas; Sterz, Fritz; Haugk, Moritz

2013-05-01

Mild therapeutic hypothermia is a major advance in post-resuscitation-care. Some questions remain unclear regarding the time to initiate cooling and the time to achieve target temperature below 34 °C. We examined whether seasonal variability of outside temperature influences the body temperature of cardiac arrest victims, and if this might have an effect on outcome. Patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrests were enrolled retrospectively. Temperature variables from 4 climatic stations in Vienna were provided from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Depending on the outside temperature at the scene the study participants were assigned to a seasonal group. To compare the seasonal groups a Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test was performed as appropriate. Of 134 patients, 61 suffered their cardiac arrest during winter, with an outside temperature below 10 °C; in 39 patients the event occurred during summer, with an outside temperature above 20 °C. Comparing the tympanic temperature recorded at hospital admission, the median of 36 °C (IQR 35.3-36.3) during summer differed significantly to winter with a median of 34.9 °C (IQR 34-35.6) (p<0.05). This seasonal alterations in core body temperature had no impact on the time-to-target-temperature, survival rate or neurologic recovery. The seasonal variability of outside temperature influences body temperature of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Changing Climate During the Snow Ablation Season on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutzler, D. S.; Chavarria, S. B.

2017-12-01

Seasonal forecasts of total surface runoff (Q) in snowmelt-dominated watersheds derive most of their prediction skill from the historical relationship between late winter snowpack (SWE) and subsequent snowmelt runoff. Across the western US, however, the relationship between SWE and Q is weakening as temperatures rise. We describe the effects of climate variability and change during the springtime snow ablation season on water supply outlooks (forecasts of Q) for southwestern rivers. As snow melts earlier, the importance of post-snow rainfall increases: interannual variability of spring season precipitation accounts for an increasing fraction of the variability of Q in recent decades. The results indicate that improvements to the skill of S2S forecasts of spring season temperature and precipitation would contribute very significantly to water supply outlooks that are now based largely on observed SWE. We assess this hypothesis using historical data from several snowpack-dominated basins in the American Southwest (Rio Grande, Pecos, and Gila Rivers) which are undergoing rapid climate change.

Seasonal variability in winds in the north polar region of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Isaac B.; Spiga, Aymeric

2018-07-01

Surface features near Mars' polar regions are very active, suggesting that they are among the most dynamic places on the planet. Much of that activity is driven by seasonal winds that strongly influence the distribution of water ice and other particulates. Morphologic features such as the spiral troughs, Chasma Boreale, and prominent circumpolar dune fields have experienced persistent winds for several Myr. Therefore, detailing the pattern of winds throughout the year is an important step to understanding what processes affect the martian surface in contemporary and past epochs. In this study, we provide polar-focused mesoscale simulations from northern spring to summer to understand variability from the diurnal to the seasonal scales. We find that there is a strong seasonality to the diurnal surface wind speeds driven primarily by the retreat of the seasonal CO2 until about summer solstice, when the CO2 is gone. The fastest winds are found when the CO2 cap boundary is on the slopes of the north polar layered deposits, providing a strong thermal gradient that enhances the season-long katabatic effect. Mid-summer winds, while not as fast as spring winds, may play a role in dune migration for some dune fields. Late summer wind speeds pick up as the seasonal cap returns.

Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

2010-12-01

The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

Seasonal variability of multiple leaf traits captured by leaf spectroscopy at two temperate deciduous forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xi; Tang, Jianwu; Mustard, John F.

Understanding the temporal patterns of leaf traits is critical in determining the seasonality and magnitude of terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, we lack robust and efficient ways to monitor the temporal dynamics of leaf traits. Here we assessed the potential of leaf spectroscopy to predict and monitor leaf traits across their entire life cycle at different forest sites and light environments (sunlit vs. shaded) using a weekly sampled dataset across the entire growing season at two temperate deciduous forests. In addition, the dataset includes field measured leaf-level directional-hemispherical reflectance/transmittance together with seven important leaf traits [total chlorophyll (chlorophyllmore » a and b), carotenoids, mass-based nitrogen concentration (N mass), mass-based carbon concentration (C mass), and leaf mass per area (LMA)]. All leaf traits varied significantly throughout the growing season, and displayed trait-specific temporal patterns. We used a Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) modeling approach to estimate leaf traits from spectra, and found that PLSR was able to capture the variability across time, sites, and light environments of all leaf traits investigated (R 2 = 0.6–0.8 for temporal variability; R 2 = 0.3–0.7 for cross-site variability; R 2 = 0.4–0.8 for variability from light environments). We also tested alternative field sampling designs and found that for most leaf traits, biweekly leaf sampling throughout the growing season enabled accurate characterization of the seasonal patterns. Compared with the estimation of foliar pigments, the performance of N mass, C mass and LMA PLSR models improved more significantly with sampling frequency. Our results demonstrate that leaf spectra-trait relationships vary with time, and thus tracking the seasonality of leaf traits requires statistical models calibrated with data sampled throughout the growing season. In conclusion, our results have broad implications for future

Seasonal variability of multiple leaf traits captured by leaf spectroscopy at two temperate deciduous forests

DOE PAGES

Yang, Xi; Tang, Jianwu; Mustard, John F.; ...

2016-04-02

Understanding the temporal patterns of leaf traits is critical in determining the seasonality and magnitude of terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, we lack robust and efficient ways to monitor the temporal dynamics of leaf traits. Here we assessed the potential of leaf spectroscopy to predict and monitor leaf traits across their entire life cycle at different forest sites and light environments (sunlit vs. shaded) using a weekly sampled dataset across the entire growing season at two temperate deciduous forests. In addition, the dataset includes field measured leaf-level directional-hemispherical reflectance/transmittance together with seven important leaf traits [total chlorophyll (chlorophyllmore » a and b), carotenoids, mass-based nitrogen concentration (N mass), mass-based carbon concentration (C mass), and leaf mass per area (LMA)]. All leaf traits varied significantly throughout the growing season, and displayed trait-specific temporal patterns. We used a Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) modeling approach to estimate leaf traits from spectra, and found that PLSR was able to capture the variability across time, sites, and light environments of all leaf traits investigated (R 2 = 0.6–0.8 for temporal variability; R 2 = 0.3–0.7 for cross-site variability; R 2 = 0.4–0.8 for variability from light environments). We also tested alternative field sampling designs and found that for most leaf traits, biweekly leaf sampling throughout the growing season enabled accurate characterization of the seasonal patterns. Compared with the estimation of foliar pigments, the performance of N mass, C mass and LMA PLSR models improved more significantly with sampling frequency. Our results demonstrate that leaf spectra-trait relationships vary with time, and thus tracking the seasonality of leaf traits requires statistical models calibrated with data sampled throughout the growing season. In conclusion, our results have broad implications for future

Variability of Metabolic Power Data in Elite Soccer Players During Pre-Season Matches

PubMed Central

Hoppe, Matthias Wilhelm; Baumgart, Christian; Slomka, Mirko; Polglaze, Ted; Freiwald, Jürgen

2017-01-01

Abstract This study aimed to determine the within-subject variability of GPS-derived metabolic power data in elite soccer players across several pre-season matches and compare the variability of high metabolic power, velocity, acceleration and deceleration running. Additionally, differences in metabolic power data among playing positions and relationships with various physical abilities were also investigated. Metabolic power data from 12 outfield starting players competing in the German Bundesliga were collected during five pre-season matches using GPS-technology (10 Hz). The players were also tested for speed, agility, power and intermittent endurance. Variability of global metabolic power data such as energy expenditure (CV = 2.2-7.0%) was lower than that for high-intensity including time ≥20 W·kg-1 (CV = 14.0-26.2%). Variability of high metabolic power (≥20 W·kg-1; CV = 14.1 ± 3.5%) was comparable to that of high velocity (≥15.5 km·h-1; CV = 17.0 ± 6.2%), acceleration (≥3 m·s-2; CV = 11.1 ± 5.1%) and deceleration running (≤-3 m·s-2; CV = 11.9 ± 4.5%) (p > 0.05, ES < 0.2). Defenders had a largely higher overall energy expenditure than midfielders and attackers (p < 0.01, ES > 0.6). Overall energy expenditure and cost were largely to very largely correlated with 5 m speed and 22 m agility sprint time and counter movement jump height (r = -0.70-0.69, p < 0.05). The detected variability indicates that global GPS-derived metabolic power data in elite soccer players from a single preseason match should be preferably used for practical applications. Contrary, high-intensity indicators should be interpreted cautiously and repeated match observations are recommended to establish meaningful high-intensity profiles of the players. Differences among playing positions and relationships with explosive physical abilities indicate that metabolic power analyses can provide new insights into the mechanics and energetics of soccer. PMID:28828094

Variability of Metabolic Power Data in Elite Soccer Players During Pre-Season Matches.

PubMed

Hoppe, Matthias Wilhelm; Baumgart, Christian; Slomka, Mirko; Polglaze, Ted; Freiwald, Jürgen

2017-09-01

This study aimed to determine the within-subject variability of GPS-derived metabolic power data in elite soccer players across several pre-season matches and compare the variability of high metabolic power, velocity, acceleration and deceleration running. Additionally, differences in metabolic power data among playing positions and relationships with various physical abilities were also investigated. Metabolic power data from 12 outfield starting players competing in the German Bundesliga were collected during five pre-season matches using GPS-technology (10 Hz). The players were also tested for speed, agility, power and intermittent endurance. Variability of global metabolic power data such as energy expenditure (CV = 2.2-7.0%) was lower than that for high-intensity including time ≥20 W·kg -1 (CV = 14.0-26.2%). Variability of high metabolic power (≥20 W·kg -1 ; CV = 14.1 ± 3.5%) was comparable to that of high velocity (≥15.5 km·h -1 ; CV = 17.0 ± 6.2%), acceleration (≥3 m·s -2 ; CV = 11.1 ± 5.1%) and deceleration running (≤-3 m·s -2 ; CV = 11.9 ± 4.5%) (p > 0.05, ES < 0.2). Defenders had a largely higher overall energy expenditure than midfielders and attackers (p < 0.01, ES > 0.6). Overall energy expenditure and cost were largely to very largely correlated with 5 m speed and 22 m agility sprint time and counter movement jump height (r = -0.70-0.69, p < 0.05). The detected variability indicates that global GPS-derived metabolic power data in elite soccer players from a single preseason match should be preferably used for practical applications. Contrary, high-intensity indicators should be interpreted cautiously and repeated match observations are recommended to establish meaningful high-intensity profiles of the players. Differences among playing positions and relationships with explosive physical abilities indicate that metabolic power analyses can provide new insights into the mechanics and energetics of soccer.

Measurement effects of seasonal and monthly variability on pedometer-determined data.

PubMed

Kang, Minsoo; Bassett, David R; Barreira, Tiago V; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Ainsworth, Barbara E

2012-03-01

The seasonal and monthly variability of pedometer-determined physical activity and its effects on accurate measurement have not been examined. The purpose of the study was to reduce measurement error in step-count data by controlling a) the length of the measurement period and b) the season or month of the year in which sampling was conducted. Twenty-three middle-aged adults were instructed to wear a Yamax SW-200 pedometer over 365 consecutive days. The step-count measurement periods of various lengths (eg, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 days, etc.) were randomly selected 10 times for each season and month. To determine accurate estimates of yearly step-count measurement, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and bias were calculated. The year-round average was considered as a criterion measure. A smaller MAPE and bias represent a better estimate. Differences in MAPE and bias among seasons were trivial; however, they varied among different months. The months in which seasonal changes occur presented the highest MAPE and bias. Targeting the data collection during certain months (eg, May) may reduce pedometer measurement error and provide more accurate estimates of year-round averages.

Extreme precipitation event over North China in August 2010: observations, monthly forecasting, and link to intra-seasonal variability of the Silk-Road wave-train across Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsolini, Yvan; Zhang, Ling; Peters, Dieter; Fraedrich, Klaus

2014-05-01

Forecast of regional precipitation events at the sub-seasonal timescale remains a big challenge for operational global prediction systems. Over the Far East in summer, climate and precipitation are strongly influenced by the fluctuating western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and strong precipitation is often associated with southeasterly low-level wind that brings moist-laden air from the southern China seas. The WPSH variability is partly influenced by quasi-stationary wave-trains propagating eastwards from Europe across Asia along the two westerly jets: the Silk-Road wave-train along the Asian jet at mid-latitudes and, on a more northern route, the polar wave-train along the sub-polar jet. While the Silk-Road wave-train appears as a robust, internal mode of variability in seasonal predictions models, its predictability is very low on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. A case in point is the unusual summer of 2010, when China experienced its worst seasonal flooding for a decade, triggered by unusually prolonged and severe monsoonal rains. In addition that summer was also characterized by record-breaking heat wave over Eastern Europe and Russia as well as catastrophic monsoonal floods in Pakistan 2010. The impact of the latter circulation anomalies on the precipitation further east over China, has been little explored. Here, we examine the role and the actual predictability of the Silk-Road wave-train, and its impact on precipitation over Northeastern China throughout August 2010, using the high-resolution IFS forecast model of ECMWF, realistic initialized and run in an ensemble mode. We demonstrate that the forecast failure with regard to flooding and extreme precipitation over Northeastern China in August 2010 is linked to the failure to represent intra-seasonal variations of the Silk-Road wave-train and the associated intensification of the WPSH.

Observations of seasonal and diurnal glacier velocities at Mount Rainier, Washington using terrestrial radar interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, K. E.; Shean, D. E.; Campbell, A.; Fahnestock, M.; Malone, S. D.

2015-07-01

We present spatially continuous velocity maps using repeat terrestrial radar interferometry (TRI) measurements to examine seasonal and diurnal dynamics of alpine glaciers at Mount Rainier, Washington. We show that the Nisqually and Emmons glaciers have small slope-parallel velocities near the summit (< 0.2 m day-1), high velocities over their upper and central regions (1.0-1.5 m day-1), and stagnant debris-covered regions near the terminus (< 0.05 m day-1). Velocity uncertainties are as low as ±0.02-0.08 m day-1. We document a large seasonal velocity decrease of 0.2-0.7 m day-1 (-25 to -50 %) from July to November for most of the Nisqually glacier, excluding the icefall, suggesting significant seasonal subglacial water storage under most of the glacier. We did not detect diurnal variability above the noise level. Preliminary 2-D ice flow modeling using TRI velocities suggests that sliding accounts for roughly 91 and 99 % of the July velocity field for the Emmons and Nisqually glaciers, respectively. We validate our observations against recent in situ velocity measurements and examine the long-term evolution of Nisqually glacier dynamics through comparisons with historical velocity data. This study shows that repeat TRI measurements with > 10 km range can be used to investigate spatial and temporal variability of alpine glacier dynamics over large areas, including hazardous and inaccessible areas.

Variable Star Observing in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizser, Attila

1986-12-01

Astronomy and variable star observing has a long history in Hungary, dating back to the private observatories erected by the Hungarian nobility in the late 19th Century. The first organized network of amateur variable star observers, the Variable Star Section of the new Hungarian Astronomical Association, was organized around the Urania Observatory in Budapest in 1948. Other groups, dedicated to various types of variables, have since been organized.

Seasonal Variability in Global Eddy Diffusion and the Effect on Thermospheric Neutral Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.

2014-12-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time between January 2004 and January 2008 were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics - Global Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy-diffusivity models. The eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the RMS difference between the TIME-GCM model and density data from a variety of satellites is reduced by an average of 5%. This result, indicates that global thermospheric density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates how eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are some limitations of this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude-dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

On the objective identification of flood seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; BobéE, Bernard

2004-01-01

The determination of seasons of high and low probability of flood occurrence is a task with many practical applications in contemporary hydrology and water resources management. Flood seasons are generally identified subjectively by visually assessing the temporal distribution of flood occurrences and, then at a regional scale, verified by comparing the temporal distribution with distributions obtained at hydrologically similar neighboring sites. This approach is subjective, time consuming, and potentially unreliable. The main objective of this study is therefore to introduce a new, objective, and systematic method for the identification of flood seasons. The proposed method tests the significance of flood seasons by comparing the observed variability of flood occurrences with the theoretical flood variability in a nonseasonal model. The method also addresses the uncertainty resulting from sampling variability by quantifying the probability associated with the identified flood seasons. The performance of the method was tested on an extensive number of samples with different record lengths generated from several theoretical models of flood seasonality. The proposed approach was then applied on real data from a large set of sites with different flood regimes across Great Britain. The results show that the method can efficiently identify flood seasons from both theoretical and observed distributions of flood occurrence. The results were used for the determination of the main flood seasonality types in Great Britain.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Pyrosequencing of Bacterial Symbionts within Axinella corrugata Sponges: Diversity and Seasonal Variability

PubMed Central

White, James R.; Patel, Jignasa; Ottesen, Andrea; Arce, Gabriela; Blackwelder, Patricia; Lopez, Jose V.

2012-01-01

Background Marine sponge species are of significant interest to many scientific fields including marine ecology, conservation biology, genetics, host-microbe symbiosis and pharmacology. One of the most intriguing aspects of the sponge “holobiont” system is the unique physiology, interaction with microbes from the marine environment and the development of a complex commensal microbial community. However, intraspecific variability and temporal stability of sponge-associated bacterial symbionts remain relatively unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We have characterized the bacterial symbiont community biodiversity of seven different individuals of the Caribbean reef sponge Axinella corrugata, from two different Florida reef locations during variable seasons using multiplex 454 pyrosequencing of 16 S rRNA amplicons. Over 265,512 high-quality 16 S rRNA sequences were generated and analyzed. Utilizing versatile bioinformatics methods and analytical software such as the QIIME and CloVR packages, we have identified 9,444 distinct bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Approximately 65,550 rRNA sequences (24%) could not be matched to bacteria at the class level, and may therefore represent novel taxa. Differentially abundant classes between seasonal Axinella communities included Gammaproteobacteria, Flavobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Acidobacter and Nitrospira. Comparisons with a proximal outgroup sponge species (Amphimedon compressa), and the growing sponge symbiont literature, indicate that this study has identified approximately 330 A. corrugata-specific symbiotic OTUs, many of which are related to the sulfur-oxidizing Ectothiorhodospiraceae. This family appeared exclusively within A. corrugata, comprising >34.5% of all sequenced amplicons. Other A. corrugata symbionts such as Deltaproteobacteria, Bdellovibrio, and Thiocystis among many others are described. Conclusions/Significance Slight shifts in several bacterial taxa were observed

Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; England, Matthew H.; Lin, I. I.

2016-11-01

A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September-November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge-discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east-west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season ( 2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño.

The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

Observations of seasonal and diurnal glacier velocities at Mount Rainier, Washington, using terrestrial radar interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, K. E.; Shean, D. E.; Campbell, A.; Fahnestock, M.; Malone, S. D.

2015-12-01

We present surface velocity maps derived from repeat terrestrial radar interferometry (TRI) measurements and use these time series to examine seasonal and diurnal dynamics of alpine glaciers at Mount Rainier, Washington. We show that the Nisqually and Emmons glaciers have small slope-parallel velocities near the summit (< 0.2 m day-1), high velocities over their upper and central regions (1.0-1.5 m day-1), and stagnant debris-covered regions near the terminus (< 0.05 m day-1). Velocity uncertainties are as low as ±0.02-0.08 m day-1. We document a large seasonal velocity decrease of 0.2-0.7 m day-1 (-25 to -50 %) from July to November for most of the Nisqually Glacier, excluding the icefall, suggesting significant seasonal subglacial water storage under most of the glacier. We did not detect diurnal variability above the noise level. Simple 2-D ice flow modeling using TRI velocities suggests that sliding accounts for 91 and 99 % of the July velocity field for the Emmons and Nisqually glaciers with possible ranges of 60-97 and 93-99.5 %, respectively, when considering model uncertainty. We validate our observations against recent in situ velocity measurements and examine the long-term evolution of Nisqually Glacier dynamics through comparisons with historical velocity data. This study shows that repeat TRI measurements with > 10 km range can be used to investigate spatial and temporal variability of alpine glacier dynamics over large areas, including hazardous and inaccessible areas.

The Effect of Seasonal Variability of Atlantic Water on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. V.; Repina, I. A.

2018-01-01

Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

MGS TES observations of the water vapor above the seasonal and perennial ice caps during northern spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankine, Alexey A.; Tamppari, Leslie K.; Smith, Michael D.

2010-11-01

We report on new retrievals of water vapor column abundances from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. The new retrievals are from the TES nadir data taken above the 'cold' surface areas in the North polar region ( Tsurf < 220 K, including seasonal frost and permanent ice cap) during spring and summer seasons, where retrievals were not performed initially. Retrievals are possible (with some modifications to the original algorithm) over cold surfaces overlaid by sufficiently warm atmosphere. The retrieved water vapor column abundances are compared to the column abundances observed by other spacecrafts in the Northern polar region during spring and summer and good agreement is found. We detect an annulus of water vapor growing above the edge of the retreating seasonal cap during spring. The formation of the vapor annulus is consistent with the previously proposed mechanism for water cycling in the polar region, according to which vapor released by frost sublimation during spring re-condenses on the retreating seasonal CO 2 cap. The source of the vapor in the vapor annulus, according to this model, is the water frost on the surface of the CO 2 at the retreating edge of the cap and the frost on the ground that is exposed by the retreating cap. Small contribution from regolith sources is possible too, but cannot be quantified based on the TES vapor data alone. Water vapor annulus exhibits interannual variability, which we attribute to variations in the atmospheric temperature. We propose that during spring and summer the water ice sublimation is retarded by high relative humidity of the local atmosphere, and that higher atmospheric temperatures lead to higher vapor column abundances by increasing the water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Since the atmospheric temperatures are strongly influenced by the atmospheric dust content, local dust storms may be controlling the release of vapor into the polar atmosphere. Water vapor

Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perovich, Donald K.; Nghiem, Son V.; Markus, Thorsten; Schwieger, Axel

2007-01-01

The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimer, Janet J.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Xue, Liang; Vargas, Rodrigo; Noakes, Scott; Hu, Xinping; Signorini, Sergio R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Feely, Richard A.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Chen, Baoshan; Wanninkhof, Rik

2017-08-01

Marine carbonate system monitoring programs often consist of multiple observational methods that include underway cruise data, moored autonomous time series, and discrete water bottle samples. Monitored parameters include all, or some of the following: partial pressure of CO2 of the water (pCO2w) and air, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH. Any combination of at least two of the aforementioned parameters can be used to calculate the others. In this study at the Gray's Reef (GR) mooring in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) we: examine the internal consistency of pCO2w from underway cruise, moored autonomous time series, and calculated from bottle samples (DIC-TA pairing); describe the seasonal to interannual pCO2w time series variability and air-sea flux (FCO2), as well as describe the potential sources of pCO2w variability; and determine the source/sink for atmospheric pCO2. Over the 8.5 years of GR mooring time series, mooring-underway and mooring-bottle calculated-pCO2w strongly correlate with r-values > 0.90. pCO2w and FCO2 time series follow seasonal thermal patterns; however, seasonal non-thermal processes, such as terrestrial export, net biological production, and air-sea exchange also influence variability. The linear slope of time series pCO2w increases by 5.2 ± 1.4 μatm y-1 with FCO2 increasing 51-70 mmol m-2 y-1. The net FCO2 sign can switch interannually with the magnitude varying greatly. Non-thermal pCO2w is also increasing over the time series, likely indicating that terrestrial export and net biological processes drive the long term pCO2w increase.

Seasonal variability of soil aggregate stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohoskova, M.; Kodesova, R.; Jirku, V.; Zigova, A.; Kozak, J.

2009-04-01

Seasonal variability of soil properties measured in surface horizons of three soil types (Haplic Luvisol, Greyic Phaeozem, Haplic Cambisol) was studied in years 2007 and 2008. Undisturbed and disturbed soil samples were taken every month to evaluate field water content, bulk density, porosity, ration of gravitational and capillary pores, pHKCl and pHH2O, organic matter content and its quality, aggregate stability using WSA index. In addition, micromorphological features of soil aggregates were studied in thin soil sections that were made from undisturbed large soil aggregates. Results showed that soil aggregate stability depended on stage of the root zone development, soil management and climatic conditions. Larger aggregate stabilities and also larger ranges of measure values were obtained in the year 2007 then those measured in 2008. This was probably caused by lower precipitations and consequently lower soil water contents observed in 2007 than those measured in 2008. The highest aggregate stability was measured at the end of April in the years 2007 and 2008 in Haplic Luvisol and Greyic Phaeozem, and at the end of June in the year 2007 and at the beginning of June in 2008 in Haplic Cambisol. In all cases aggregate stability increased during the root growth and then gradually decreased due to summer rainfall events. Aggregate stability reflected aggregate structure and soil pore system development, which was documented on micromorphological images and evaluated using the ration of gravitational and capillary pores measured on the undisturbed sol samples. Acknowledgement: Authors acknowledge the financial support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic grant No. 526/08/0434, and the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports grant No. MSM 6046070901.

Seasonal changes in environmental variables, biomass, production and nutrient contents in two contrasting tropical intertidal seagrass beds in South Sulawesi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Erftemeijer, Paul L A; Herman, Peter M J

1994-09-01

Seasonal dynamics were studied by monthly monitoring of biological and environmental variables in permanent quadrats in two contrasting intertidal seagrass beds in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, from February 1991 to January 1992. Datasets were analysed with canonical correlation analysis for correlations between environmental and biological variables. Considerable variation in biomass, production and plant tissue nutrient contents in a monospecific seagrass bed of Enhalus acoroides, growing on a coastal terrigenous mudbank (Gusung Tallang), was assumed to be related to riverine influences of the nearby Tallo River. The variation in seagrass variables at this site could, however, not be significantly correlated to seasonal patterns in rainfall, salinity, tides, nutrient availability, water motion or turbidity. A seasonal cycle in biomass, production and nutrient contents in a mixed seagrass bed of Thalassia hemprichii and E. acoroides, growing on carbonate sand on the reef flat of an offshore coral island (Barang Lompo), was found to be largely determined by tidal exposure and water motion. Exposure of the intertidal seagrass bed during hours of low water during spring tides showed a gradual shift from exposure during the night (January-June) to exposure during daylight (July-December). Daylight exposure resulted in a significant loss of above-ground plant biomass through desiccation and 'burning' of leaves. The observed seasonal dynamics of the seagrass bed on reef sediment contrast with reports from the Caribbean, where the effect of tidal exposure on comparable shallow-water seagrass communities is relatively insignificant due to a small tidal amplitude.

Spatio-seasonal variability of chromophoric dissolved organic matter absorption and responses to photobleaching in a large shallow temperate lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encina Aulló-Maestro, María; Hunter, Peter; Spyrakos, Evangelos; Mercatoris, Pierre; Kovács, Attila; Horváth, Hajnalka; Preston, Tom; Présing, Mátyás; Torres Palenzuela, Jesús; Tyler, Andrew

2017-03-01

The development and validation of remote-sensing-based approaches for the retrieval of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources and magnitude of variability in the optical properties of dissolved material within lakes. In this study, spatial and seasonal variability in concentration and composition of CDOM and the origin of its variation was studied in Lake Balaton (Hungary), a large temperate shallow lake in central Europe. In addition, we investigated the effect of photobleaching on the optical properties of CDOM through in-lake incubation experiments. There was marked variability throughout the year in CDOM absorption in Lake Balaton (aCDOM(440) = 0. 06-9.01 m-1). The highest values were consistently observed at the mouth of the main inflow (Zala River), which drains humic-rich material from the adjoining Kis-Balaton wetland, but CDOM absorption decreased rapidly towards the east where it was consistently lower and less variable than in the westernmost lake basins. The spectral slope parameter for the interval of 350-500 nm (SCDOM(350-500)) was more variable with increasing distance from the inflow (observed range 0.0161-0.0181 nm-1 for the mouth of the main inflow and 0.0158-0.0300 nm-1 for waters closer to the outflow). However, spatial variation in SCDOM was more constant exhibiting a negative correlation with aCDOM(440). Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was strongly positively correlated with aCDOM(440) and followed a similar seasonal trend but it demonstrated more variability than either aCDOM or SCDOM with distance through the system. Photobleaching resulting from a 7-day exposure to natural solar UV radiation resulted in a marked decrease in allochthonous CDOM absorption (7.04 to 3.36 m-1, 42 % decrease). Photodegradation also resulted in an increase in the spectral slope coefficient of dissolved material.

Seasonal variability in Tibetan seismicity 1991-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randolph-Flagg, N. G.; Day, J.; Burgmann, R.; Manga, M.

2013-12-01

Seismicity in the High Himalaya in Nepal (Bollinger et al., GRL, 2007, Bettinelli et al., EPSL, 2008), the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California (Christiansen et al., 2007), Mt. Hochstaufen in Germany (Hainzl et al., 2006), and some Cascade Range volcanoes (Christiansen et al., GRL, 2005; Saar and Manga, EPSL, 2003) shows seasonal modulation. From 1991 to 2013, seismicity throughout the ~500 km by ~1000 km Tibetan Plateau also appears to be modulated with 66% more shallow (depth < 20km) earthquakes in spring and fall than in the summer and winter. This variation cannot be explained by seasonal changes in seismic network coverage or triggering by (or occurrence of) large magnitude earthquakes. Significant foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan dominate the seismic record from 2008 to 2009 and those years are not considered in the statistical analysis. The Tibetan seismicity, although weaker, is very similar to the modulation observed in Nepal and in the locked section of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield. To explain this biannual signal, we assess the possible effects of hydrologic loading (and unloading), pore pressure diffusion, fault plane orientation, evapotranspiration, earth tides, and atmospheric pressure. The similarity in seasonal signals throughout the area suggests that many faults on the Tibetan Plateau are critically stressed and sensitive to small transient stresses.

Spatiotemporal investigation of long-term seasonal temperature variability in Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsharkawy, S. G.; Elmallah, E. S.

2016-09-01

Throughout this work, spatial and temporal variations of seasonal surface air temperature have been investigated. Moreover, the effects of relative internal (teleconnection) and external (solar) forcing on surface air temperature variability have been examined. Seasonal temperature time series covering 30 different meteorological locations and lasting over the last century are considered. These locations are classified into two groups based on their spatial distribution. One represents Coast Libya Surface Air Temperature (CLSAT), contains 19 locations, and the other represents Desert Libya Surface Air Temperature (DLSAT), contains 11 locations. Average temperature departure test is applied to investigate the nature of temperature variations. Temperature trends are analyzed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and their coefficients are calculated using Sen's slope estimate. Cross-correlation and spectral analysis techniques are also applied. Our results showed temperature deviation from average within a band of ± 2°C at coast region, while ± 4°C at desert region. Extreme behavior intensions between summer and winter temperatures at coast region are noticed. Segmentation process declared reversal cooling/warming behavior within temperature records for all seasons. Desert region shows warming trend for all seasons with higher coefficients than obtained at coast region. Results obtained for spectral analysis show different short and medium signals and concluded that not only the spectral properties are different for different geographical regions but also different for different climatic seasons on regional scale as well. Cross-correlation results showed that highest influence for Rz upon coastal temperature is always in conjunction with highest influence of NAO upon coastal temperature during the period 1981-2010. Desert region does not obey this phenomenon, where highest temperature-NAO correlations at desert during autumn and winter seasons are not

Assessing the seasonal variability of ephemeral gully erosion using high-frequency monitoring: case study in a fully cultivated catchment (The Pommeroye, Northern France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patault, E.; Alary, C.; Franke, C.; Gauthier, A.; Abriak, N. E.

2017-12-01

Gully erosion results in on-site and off-site problems including the loss of cultivated soils, the silting of riverbeds and dams as well as infrastructure and property damage by muddy floods. Regions of intensive agricultural production situated on the European loess belt are particularly affected. Recently a growing interest has focused on ephemeral gullies since there have been recognized as a major contributor to the sediment yield in small agricultural catchment in this area. The aims of this case study are (i) to quantify the sediment yield transported by ephemeral gullies, (ii) to identify parameters that control the function of the hydro-sedimentary response and (iii) to evaluate the influence of seasonal variability on the ephemeral gully erosion. For this study a high-frequency monitoring station was implemented. For each flood event, 8 variables related to hydro-sedimentary and rainfall dynamics are calculated and the relationships between these variables are analyzed using the Pearson correlation matrix and Principal Component Analysis. During the first year of monitoring (03/2016-03/2017), 22 flood events were recorded of which 75% occurred in spring and winter. The specific sediment yield was evaluated to 30 t km-2 yr-1 which is conventional for the study region but the results show a highly variable seasonal distribution; 90% of the sedimentary transfer occurred in winter and autumn. The main reasons were a high cumulative rainfall and a long duration for the events. The maximum suspended sediment concentration at the catchment outlet was observed in spring, likely due to maximum rainfall intensities in that season. Also, a huge variability between the events is observed; e.g. one exceptional rain storm in 11/2016 represents 45% of the total sediment yield of the study period. For the monitored 22 events, 2 different types of hysteresis behavior were observed: (i) clockwise and (ii) complex. In winter, only clockwise hysteresis was observed. These

Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

2017-05-01

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Seasonal variability of rocky reef fish assemblages: Detecting functional and structural changes due to fishing effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriques, Sofia; Pais, Miguel Pessanha; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique Nogueira

2013-05-01

The present study analyzed the effects of seasonal variation on the stability of fish-based metrics and their capability to detect changes in fish assemblages, which is yet poorly understood despite the general idea that guilds are more resilient to natural variability than species abundances. Three zones subject to different levels of fishing pressure inside the Arrábida Marine Protected Area (MPA) were sampled seasonally. The results showed differences between warm (summer and autumn) and cold (winter and spring) seasons, with the autumn clearly standing out. In general, the values of the metrics density of juveniles, density of invertebrate feeders and density of omnivores increased in warm seasons, which can be attributed to differences in recruitment patterns, spawning migrations and feeding activity among seasons. The density of generalist/opportunistic individuals was sensitive to the effect of fishing, with higher values at zones with the lowest level of protection, while the density of individuals with high commercial value only responded to fishing in the autumn, due to a cumulative result of both juveniles and adults abundances during this season. Overall, this study showed that seasonal variability affects structural and functional features of the fish assemblage and that might influence the detection of changes as a result of anthropogenic pressures. The choice of a specific season, during warm sea conditions after the spawning period (July-October), seems to be more adequate to assess changes on rocky-reef fish assemblages.

Seasonal Cycles of Oceanic Transports in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gary, Stefan F.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Johnson, Clare; Houpert, Loïc.; Holliday, N. Penny; Behrens, Erik; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus W.

2018-02-01

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5-1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7-14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

Seasonal variability of atmospheric tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: meteor radar data and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhotelov, Dimitry; Becker, Erich; Stober, Gunter; Chau, Jorge L.

2018-06-01

Thermal tides play an important role in the global atmospheric dynamics and provide a key mechanism for the forcing of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics from below. A method for extracting tidal contributions, based on the adaptive filtering, is applied to analyse multi-year observations of mesospheric winds from ground-based meteor radars located in northern Germany and Norway. The observed seasonal variability of tides is compared to simulations with the Kühlungsborn Mechanistic Circulation Model (KMCM). It is demonstrated that the model provides reasonable representation of the tidal amplitudes, though substantial differences from observations are also noticed. The limitations of applying a conventionally coarse-resolution model in combination with parametrisation of gravity waves are discussed. The work is aimed towards the development of an ionospheric model driven by the dynamics of the KMCM.

Seasonal Variations of Atmospheric CO2 over Fire Affected Regions Based on GOSAT Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Matsunaga, T.

2016-12-01

Abstract: The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions released from biomass burning significantly affect the temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on a long-term (July 2009-June 2015) retrieved datasets by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the seasonal cycle and interannual variations of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) in four fire affected continental regions were investigated. The results showed Northern Africa had the largest seasonal variations after removing its regional long-term trend of XCO2 with peak-to-peak amplitude of 6.2 ppm within the year, higher than central South America (2.4 ppm), Southern Africa (3.8 ppm) and Australia (1.7 ppm). The detrended regional XCO2 was found to be positively correlated with the fire CO2 emissions during fire activity period and negatively correlated with vegetation photosynthesis activity with different seasonal variabilities. Northern Africa recorded the largest change of seasonal variations of detrended XCO2 with a total of 12.8 ppm during fire seasons, higher than central South America, Southern Africa and Australia with 5.4 ppm, 6.7 ppm and 2.2 ppm, respectively. During fire episode, the positive detrended XCO2 was noticed during June-November in central South America, December-June in Northern Africa, May-November in Southern Africa. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the variations of detrended XCO2 and fire CO2 emissions from GFED4 (Global Fire Emissions Database v4) achieved best correlations in Southern Africa (R=0.77, p<0.05). Meanwhile, Southern Africa also experienced a significant negative relationship between the variations of detrended XCO2 and vegetation activity (R=-0.84, p<0.05). This study revealed that fire CO2 emissions and vegetation activity contributed greatly to the seasonal variations of GOSAT XCO2 dataset.

Summer season variability of the north residual cap of Mars as observed by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calvin, W.M.; Titus, T.N.

2008-01-01

Previous observations have noted the change in albedo in a number of North Pole bright outliers and in the distribution of bright ice deposits between Mariner 9, Viking, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data sets. Changes over the summer season as well as between regions at the same season (Ls) in different years have been observed. We used the bolometric albedo and brightness temperature channels of the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the MGS spacecraft to monitor north polar residual ice cap variations between Mars years and within the summer season for three northern Martian summers between July 1999 and April 2003. Large-scale brightness variations are observed in four general areas: (1) the patchy outlying frost deposits from 90 to 270??E, 75 to 80??N; (2) the large "tail" below the Chasma Boreale and its associated plateau from 315 to 45??E, 80 to 85??N, that we call the "Boreale Tongue" and in Hyperboreae Undae; (3) the troughed terrain in the region from 0 to 120??E longitude (the lower right on a polar stereographic projection) we have called "Shackleton's Grooves" and (4) the unit mapped as residual ice in Olympia Planitia. We also note two areas which seem to persist as cool and bright throughout the summer and between Mars years. One is at the "source" of Chasma Boreale (???15??E, 85??N) dubbed "McMurdo", and the "Cool and Bright Anomaly (CABA)" noted by Kieffer and Titus 2001. TES Mapping of Mars' north seasonal cap. Icarus 154, 162-180] at ???330??E, 87??N called here "Vostok". Overall defrosting occurs early in the summer as the temperatures rise and then after the peak temperatures are reached (Ls???110) higher elevations and outlier bright deposits cold trap and re-accumulate new frost. Persistent bright areas are associated with either higher elevations or higher background albedos suggesting complex feedback mechanisms including cold-trapping of frost due to albedo and elevation effects, as well as influence of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics

Nutrient characteristics of the water masses and their seasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Sardessai, S; Shetye, Suhas; Maya, M V; Mangala, K R; Prasanna Kumar, S

2010-01-01

Nutrient characteristics of four water masses in the light of their thermohaline properties are examined in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean during winter, spring and summer monsoon. The presence of low salinity water mass with "Surface enrichments" of inorganic nutrients was observed relative to 20 m in the mixed layer. Lowest oxygen levels of 19 microM at 3 degrees N in the euphotic zone indicate mixing of low oxygen high salinity Arabian Sea waters with the equatorial Indian Ocean. The seasonal variability of nutrients was regulated by seasonally varying physical processes like thermocline elevation, meridional and zonal transport, the equatorial undercurrent and biological processes of uptake and remineralization. Circulation of Arabian Sea high salinity waters with nitrate deficit could also be seen from low N/P ratio with a minimum of 8.9 in spring and a maximum of 13.6 in winter. This large deviation from Redfield N/P ratio indicates the presence of denitrified high salinity waters with a seasonal nitrate deficit ranging from -4.85 to 1.52 in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. Methods 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. Results There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p < .001). Season did not significantly predict intention or objective walking behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Conclusion Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Williams, Stefanie L; French, David P

2014-02-05

Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p < .001). Season did not significantly predict intention or objective walking behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

2015-06-01

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months.

On the Onset of the Rainy Season in Amazonia: WHAT the Observations Show, and Why the Biases in Climate Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.; Alves, L. M.; Fu, R.

2014-12-01

The onset of the Amazon rainy season shows a large temporal and spatial variability, delays on the date of the onset will have strong impacts on local agriculture, hydroelectric power generation as well as on the hydrology of large rivers. Two "once-in-a-century" droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and it was shown that in those events the rainy season started later than normal, and also that on the last 10 years the dry season has increased in length by about one month. These events highlight the urgency for improving our understanding and capability to model onset of the rainy season and drought variability, for the present and future. Most studies have attributed the variability of the rainy season onset over Amazonia to the variability of the tropical oceans whether other factors, such as climate change, land use and aerosols also contribute to the variability are not clear.. Global climate models run on seasonal climate forecast mode still show large uncertainties on the prediction of onset of seasonal rains. As for climate change, the CMIP3 and CMIP5 appear to underestimate the past variability, and also project virtually no future change of the onset of rainy season over the Amazon even when they are forced by strong greenhouse forcing under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Why these models underestimate the variability of the rainy season onset, and whether this bias implies an underestimate of sensitivity of their dry season length to anthropogenic radiative forcing remain unclear. This FAPESP DOE grant 2013/50538 aims to explore use of the measurements provided by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facilities (AMF)-GoAmazon and the Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil (CHUVA) Field Experiments, along with global and regional model experiments, to explore the sources of the above described uncertainty. The project will address several issues, i.e. the inadequate representation of the types of convection (i.e., maritime

Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

2017-12-01

An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

Within-season variability of fighting behaviour in an Australian alpine grasshopper

PubMed Central

Muschett, Giselle; Umbers, Kate D. L.; Herberstein, Marie E.

2017-01-01

Throughout the breeding season, changing environmental and biological conditions can lead to variation in the reproductive landscape of many species. In alpine environments temperature is a key driver of behaviour for small ectotherms such as insects, but variable biotic factors such as mate quality and availability can also influence behaviour. Kosicuscola tristis is a small semelparous grasshopper of the Australian alpine region. In a rare behaviour among grasshoppers, K. tristis males engage in vigorous fights over access to females, involving mandible displays, kicking, biting and grappling. In this study we describe the variation in fighting behaviour of K. tristis throughout the breeding season and test several hypotheses related to temperature, body size, mating behaviour, and female quality. We show that K. tristis males are more aggressive toward each other at the end of the breeding season than at the beginning. This increased aggression is associated with decreased daily average temperatures (from ~20°C to ~9°C), decreased mating activity, increased female fecundity, and an unexpected trend toward an increase in female-to-male aggression. These results suggest that K. tristis is likely under increased selective pressure to time key life cycle events with favourable biological and climatic conditions. The stochastic nature of alpine environments combined with a relatively short life span and breeding season, as well as limited mating opportunities toward the end of the season may have contributed to the evolution of this extraordinary mating system. PMID:28403243

High sub-seasonal variability in water volume transports, revealed through a new ocean monitoring initiative using autonomous gliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heslop, E.; Ruiz, S.; Allen, J.; Tintoré, J.

2012-04-01

One of the clear challenges facing oceanography today is to define variability in ocean processes at a seasonal and sub-seasonal scale, in order to clearly identify the signature of both natural large-scale climatic oscillations and the long-term trends brought about by the human-induced change in atmospheric composition. Without visibility of this variance, which helps to determine the margins of significance for long-term trends and decipher cause and effect, the inferences drawn from sparse data points can be misleading. The cyclonic basin scale circulation pattern in the Western Mediterranean has long been known; the role/contribution that processes in the Balearic Basin play in modifying this is less well defined. The Balearic Channels (channels between the Balearic Islands) are constriction points on this basin scale circulation that appear to exert a controlling influence on the north/south exchange of water masses. Understanding the variability in current flows through these channels is important, not just for the transport of heat and salt, but also for ocean biology that responds to physical variability at the scale of that variability. Earlier studies at a seasonal scale identified; an interannual summer/winter variation of 1 Sv in the strength of the main circulation pattern and a high cruise-to-cruise variability in the pattern and strength of the flows through the channels brought about by mesoscale activity. Initial results using new high-resolution data from glider based monitoring missions across the Ibiza Channel (the main exchange channel in the Balearic Basin), combined with ship and contemporaneous satellite data, indicate surprisingly high and rapid changes in the flows of surface and intermediate waters imposed on the broad seasonal cycle. To date the data suggests that there are three potential 'modes' of water volume transport, generated from the interplay between basin and mesoscale circulation. We will review the concept of transport

Subtropical Gyre Variability Observed by Ocean Color Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio R.; Christian, James R.

2002-01-01

The subtropical gyres of the world are extensive, coherent regions that occupy about 40% of the surface of the earth. Once thought to be homogeneous and static habitats, there is increasing evidence that mid-latitude gyres exhibit substantial physical and biological variability on a variety of time scales. While biological productivity within these oligotrophic regions may be relatively small, their immense size makes their total contribution significant. Global distributions of dynamic height derived from satellite altimeter data, and chlorophyll concentration derived from satellite ocean color data, show that the dynamic center of the gyres, the region of maximum dynamic height where the thermocline is deepest, does not coincide with the region of minimum chlorophyll concentration. The physical and biological processes by which this distribution of ocean properties is maintained, and the spatial and temporal scales of variability associated with these processes, are analyzed using global surface chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and surface winds from operational satellite and meteorological sources, and hydrographic data from climatologies and individual surveys. Seasonal and interannual variability in the areal extent of the subtropical gyres are examined using 8 months (November 1996 - June 1997) of OCTS and nearly 5 years (September 1997 - June 02) of SeaWiFS ocean color data and are interpreted in the context of climate variability and measured changes in other ocean properties (i.e., wind forcing, surface currents, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing). The North Pacific and North Atlantic gyres are observed to be shrinking over this period, while the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Ocean gyres appear to be expanding.

Impact of inter-seasonal solar variability on the association of lower troposphere and cold point tropopause in the tropics: Observations using RO data from COSMIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Singh, Narendra; Singh, Vir; Reddy, K. K.; Chun, H.-Y.

2017-12-01

Association of lower tropospheric variations with the cold point tropopause (CPT) is examined on inter-seasonal basis over the tropical region (30°N-30°S) during 2007-2010 using COSMIC/FORMOST-3 Radio Occultation (RO) data. Temperature analyses for this association are shown over different regions of the globe having contrast topography namely over Western Pacific sector, Indian sector, and African sector. Correlation coefficient (r), taken as a measurement of association, show specific longitudinal differences between the lower troposphere (from 1 km to 5 km height) and the CPT. The northern and southern hemispheres show contrast coupling of temperature variation between lower tropospheric region and the CPT. Land and ocean effects are found to contribute in a different way to the correlation coefficient. Analyses show symmetrical structure of 'r' on both sides of the equator over the African region, as data include mostly land region on both side of equator. Data represent positive correlation (r 0.5) over 15°-20° latitudes on either side of the equator over the African region, suggesting strong hold of the inter-seasonal variation of solar diabatic heating influence over the tropic of Cancer and tropic of Capricorn. On the other hand, there is a contrast behaviour over the Indian region, 'r' is nearly negative ( - 1.0) each year in the southern hemisphere (SH) and positive ( 0.4) in the northern hemisphere (NH) with a maxima near tropic of Cancer. Western Pacific region is found to display a linear increase in 'r' from negative ( - 1.0) in SH to positive ( 0.8) in NH. In general, 'r' (positive) maximizes over the land region around 15°-20° latitudes, suggesting a control of in phase inter-seasonal solar heating on the coupling of boundary layer/lower troposphere and CPT region, whereas it turns negative over water body. Analyses suggest that variabilities in CPT over different regions of globe show significant inter-seasonal association with the lower

Seasonal cycle of oceanic mixed layer and upper-ocean heat fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea from in-situ observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houpert, Loïc; Testor, Pierre; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Estournel, Claude; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

Heat fluxes across the ocean-atmosphere interface play a crucial role in the upper turbulent mixing. The depth reached by this turbulent mixing is indicated by an homogenization of seawater properties in the surface layer, and is defined as the Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). The thickness of the mixed layer determines also the heat content of the layer that directly interacts with the atmosphere. The seasonal variability of these air-sea fluxes is crucial in the calculation of heat budget. An improvement in the estimate of these fluxes is needed for a better understanding of the Mediterranean ocean circulation and climate, in particular in Regional Climate Models. There are few estimations of surface heat fluxes based on oceanic observations in the Mediterranean, and none of them are based on mixed layer observations. So, we proposed here new estimations of these upper-ocean heat fluxes based on mixed layer. We present high resolution Mediterranean climatology (0.5°) of the mean MLD based on a comprehensive collection of temperature profiles of last 43 years (1969-2012). The database includes more than 150,000 profiles, merging CTD, XBT, ARGO Profiling floats, and gliders observations. This dataset is first used to describe the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer depth on the whole Mediterranean on a monthly climatological basis. Our analysis discriminates several regions with coherent behaviors, in particular the deep water formation sites, characterized by significant differences in the winter mixing intensity. Heat storage rates (HSR) were calculated as the time rate of change of the heat content integrated from the surface down to a specific depth that is defined as the MLD plus an integration constant. Monthly climatology of net heat flux (NHF) from ERA-Interim reanalysis was balanced by the 1°x1° resolution heat storage rate climatology. Local heat budget balance and seasonal variability in the horizontal heat flux are then discussed by taking into account

Spatial patterns of soil moisture connected to monthly-seasonal precipitation variability in a monsoon region

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

The relations between monthly-seasonal soil moisture and precipitation variability are investigated by identifying the coupled patterns of the two hydrological fields using singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD is a technique of principal component analysis similar to empirical orthogonal knctions (EOF). However, it is applied to two variables simultaneously and is...

Seasonal variability in the persistence of dissolved environmental DNA (eDNA) in a marine system: The role of microbial nutrient limitation.

PubMed

Salter, Ian

2018-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) can be defined as the DNA pool recovered from an environmental sample that includes both extracellular and intracellular DNA. There has been a significant increase in the number of recent studies that have demonstrated the possibility to detect macroorganisms using eDNA. Despite the enormous potential of eDNA to serve as a biomonitoring and conservation tool in aquatic systems, there remain some important limitations concerning its application. One significant factor is the variable persistence of eDNA over natural environmental gradients, which imposes a critical constraint on the temporal and spatial scales of species detection. In the present study, a radiotracer bioassay approach was used to quantify the kinetic parameters of dissolved eDNA (d-eDNA), a component of extracellular DNA, over an annual cycle in the coastal Northwest Mediterranean. Significant seasonal variability in the biological uptake and turnover of d-eDNA was observed, the latter ranging from several hours to over one month. Maximum uptake rates of d-eDNA occurred in summer during a period of intense phosphate limitation (turnover <5 hrs). Corresponding increases in bacterial production and uptake of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) demonstrated the microbial utilization of d-eDNA as an organic phosphorus substrate. Higher temperatures during summer may amplify this effect through a general enhancement of microbial metabolism. A partial least squares regression (PLSR) model was able to reproduce the seasonal cycle in d-eDNA persistence and explained 60% of the variance in the observations. Rapid phosphate turnover and low concentrations of bioavailable phosphate, both indicative of phosphate limitation, were the most important parameters in the model. Abiotic factors such as pH, salinity and oxygen exerted minimal influence. The present study demonstrates significant seasonal variability in the persistence of d-eDNA in a natural marine environment that can be linked to the

Duration of the Arctic sea ice melt season: Regional and interannual variability, 1979-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2004-01-01

Melt onset dates, freeze onset dates, and melt season duration were estimated over Arctic sea ice, 1979–2001, using passive microwave satellite imagery and surface air temperature data. Sea ice melt duration for the entire Northern Hemisphere varied from a 104-day minimum in 1983 and 1996 to a 124-day maximum in 1989. Ranges in melt duration were highest in peripheral seas, numbering 32, 42, 44, and 51 days in the Laptev, Barents-Kara, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas, respectively. In the Arctic Ocean, average melt duration varied from a 75-day minimum in 1987 to a 103-day maximum in 1989. On average, melt onset in annual ice began 10.6 days earlier than perennial ice, and freeze onset in perennial ice commenced 18.4 days earlier than annual ice. Average annual melt dates, freeze dates, and melt durations in annual ice were significantly correlated with seasonal strength of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Following high-index AO winters (January–March), spring melt tended to be earlier and autumn freeze later, leading to longer melt season durations. The largest increases in melt duration were observed in the eastern Siberian Arctic, coincident with cyclonic low pressure and ice motion anomalies associated with high-index AO phases. Following a positive AO shift in 1989, mean annual melt duration increased 2–3 weeks in the northern East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. Decreasing correlations between consecutive-year maps of melt onset in annual ice during 1979–2001 indicated increasing spatial variability and unpredictability in melt distributions from one year to the next. Despite recent declines in the winter AO index, recent melt distributions did not show evidence of reestablishing spatial patterns similar to those observed during the 1979–88 low-index AO period. Recent freeze distributions have become increasingly similar to those observed during 1979–88, suggesting a recurrent spatial pattern of freeze chronology under low-index AO conditions.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from GRACE time-variable gravity and altimeter sea surface height measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-05-01

Seasonal variability of sea surface height and mass within the Red Sea, occurs mostly through the exchange of heat with the atmosphere and wind-driven inflow and outflow of water through the strait of Bab el Mandab that opens into the Gulf of Aden to the south. The seasonal effects of precipitation and evaporation, of water exchange through the Suez Canal to the north, and of runoff from the adjacent land, are all small. The flow through the Bab el Mandab involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during the winter and a net transfer out during the summer. But that flow has a multi-layer pattern, so that in the summer there is actually an influx of cool water at intermediate (~100 m) depths. Thus, summer water in the southern Red Sea is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths (especially in the far south). Summer water in the northern Red Sea experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature profile affects the water density, which impacts the sea surface height but has no effect on vertically integrated mass. Here, we study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE time-variable mass estimates, altimeter (Jason-1, Jason-2, and Envisat) measurements of sea surface height, and steric sea surface height contributions derived from depth-dependent, climatological values of temperature and salinity obtained from the World Ocean Atlas. We find good consistency, particularly in the northern Red Sea, between these three data types. Among the general characteristics of our results are: (1) the mass contributions to seasonal SSHT variations are much larger than the steric contributions; (2) the mass signal is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea through the Strait of Bab el Mandab in winter, and out during the summer; and (3) the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with summer sea surface warming.

Normal Variability of Weekly Musculoskeletal Screening Scores and the Influence of Training Load across an Australian Football League Season.

PubMed

Esmaeili, Alireza; Stewart, Andrew M; Hopkins, William G; Elias, George P; Lazarus, Brendan H; Rowell, Amber E; Aughey, Robert J

2018-01-01

Aim: The sit and reach test (S&R), dorsiflexion lunge test (DLT), and adductor squeeze test (AST) are commonly used in weekly musculoskeletal screening for athlete monitoring and injury prevention purposes. The aim of this study was to determine the normal week to week variability of the test scores, individual differences in variability, and the effects of training load on the scores. Methods: Forty-four elite Australian rules footballers from one club completed the weekly screening tests on day 2 or 3 post-main training (pre-season) or post-match (in-season) over a 10 month season. Ratings of perceived exertion and session duration for all training sessions were used to derive various measures of training load via both simple summations and exponentially weighted moving averages. Data were analyzed via linear and quadratic mixed modeling and interpreted using magnitude-based inference. Results: Substantial small to moderate variability was found for the tests at both season phases; for example over the in-season, the normal variability ±90% confidence limits were as follows: S&R ±1.01 cm, ±0.12; DLT ±0.48 cm, ±0.06; AST ±7.4%, ±0.6%. Small individual differences in variability existed for the S&R and AST (factor standard deviations between 1.31 and 1.66). All measures of training load had trivial effects on the screening scores. Conclusion: A change in a test score larger than the normal variability is required to be considered a true change. Athlete monitoring and flagging systems need to account for the individual differences in variability. The tests are not sensitive to internal training load when conducted 2 or 3 days post-training or post-match, and the scores should be interpreted cautiously when used as measures of recovery.

A Change in Seasons: Increasing Student Observation Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling, Donna R.

2006-01-01

Using the seasons in the science classroom increases student observation skills as they focus on subtle differences such as shades of color and differences in structures. In this article, the author presents a variety of activities that can help students identify and demonstrate patterns and changes in leaf or plant development. The ability to…

Seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll-a and associated physical synchronous variability in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xueyan; Dong, Qing; Xue, Cunjin; Wu, Shuchao

2016-06-01

Based on long-term satellite-derived ocean data sets and methods of empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) on seasonal and interannual timescales in the western tropical Pacific associated with physical ocean variables of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface wind (SSW), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The bio-physical synchronous variation on interannual timescale was also confirmed in terms of the scales of variability and oscillation periods in the time-frequency space using the methods of Fourier transform, Morlet wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis. On a seasonal timescale, the first two modes of the monthly mean CHL fields described the consecutive spatiotemporal variation in CHL in the western tropical Pacific. CHL reached the maximum during late winter-early spring and minimum during summer-early autumn with the exception of the northeast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The CHL bloom in boreal winter-spring was closely associated with cold SST, high sea level along the North Equatorial Countercurrent meanders, and strong wind. On an interannual timescale, the variability of CHL exhibited a close correlation with SST, SLA, SSW, and ENSO. During El Niño, CHL increased in the oligotrophic western basin of the warm pool associated with cold SST, low SLA, and strong westerly winds but decreased in the mesotrophic eastern basin of the warm pool in association with warm SST, high SLA, and weak easterly trade winds. There may exist time-lag for the bio-physical covariation, i.e., CHL and SST varied simultaneously within 1 month, and CHL variations led SLA by approximately 0-3 months but lagged wind speed by about 1 month. In the time-frequency domain, the interannual variability in CHL and physical ocean variables had high common power, indicating that the variability scales

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Smith, Eric A.

2004-01-01

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.

The sensitivity of primary productivity to intra-seasonal mixed layer variability in the sub-Antarctic Zone of the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joubert, W. R.; Swart, S.; Tagliabue, A.; Thomalla, S. J.; Monteiro, P. M. S.

2014-03-01

The seasonal cycle of primary productivity is impacted by seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics of the mixed layer through the changing balance between mixing and buoyancy forcing, which regulates nutrient supply and light availability. Of particular recent interest is the role of synoptic scale events in supplying nutrients, particularly iron, to the euphotic zone in the Sub Antarctic Zone (SAZ), where phytoplankton blooms occur throughout summer. In this study, we present high resolution measurements of net community production (NCP) constrained by ΔO2/Ar ratios, and mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Atlantic SAZ. We found a non-linear relationship between NCP and MLD, with the highest and most variable NCP observed in shallow MLDs (< 45 m). We propose that NCP variability in the SAZ may be driven by alternating states of synoptic-scale deepening of the mixed layer, leading to the entrainment of iron (dFe), followed by restratification, allowing rapid growth in an iron replete, high light environment. Synoptic iron fluxes into the euphotic zone based on water column dFe profiles and high resolution glider MLD data, reveal a potentially significant contribution of "new iron" which could sustain NCP throughout summer. Future process studies will help elaborate these findings further.

The Polar Winds of Saturn as Determined by Cassini/VIMS: Seasonally Variable or Not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momary, Thomas W.; Baines, K. H.; Brown, R. H.; Buratti, B. J.; Clark, R. N.; Nicholson, P. D.; Sotin, C.; Cassini/VIMS Science Team

2013-10-01

The high inclination of Cassini's current orbit allows VIMS to once again obtain spectacular views of Saturn’s poles, not seen since 2008. We present new imagery and investigate the effect of seasonal variability on Saturn’s polar winds. The north pole now basks in spring daylight and we again observe the long-enduring northern Polar Hexagon, discovered in Voyager imagery by Godfrey (Icarus 76, 335-356, 1988). This feature seemed to stay fixed in a rotational system defined by the Voyager-era radio rotation rate (Desch & Kaiser, Geophys. Res. Lett, 8, 253-256, 1981) in both original Voyager and 2008 VIMS observations. Yet new images indicate a shift, with the hexagon rotating ~10° of longitude from Nov. 2012 to May 2013. Discrete clouds still race around the edges of the 5-μm-bright hexagon at speeds of ~100 m/s, as we observed in 2008 (Baines, Momary, et al., Plan. Space. Sci 57, 1671-1681, 2009). We also recover a massive storm system residing just inside the hexagon edge at ~80° N. lat. Since 2008, this storm has shifted poleward by 1.5° and turned 5 μm dark (cloudy), where it was 5 μm bright when last observed (i.e. cloud free). It now moves zonally faster at ~25 m/s vs. ~14 m/s in 2008. This enduring "shepherd" storm may force and maintain the hexagon shape. We also recover twin 5-μm-dark storms (Snake Eyes) moving slowly at ~15 m/s near 67° N lat. However, while the two features appear to maintain a relatively constant zonal separation on average (14° ), with the trailing feature remaining near 67° N lat., the leading storm appears to oscillate ~1° in latitude and drift in longitude. At the south pole, discrete clouds whirl, now in darkness, around a hurricane-like vortex consisting of a cloudless "eye" extending at least 1 bar deeper than surrounding rings of clouds. These clouds still appear to be moving as a classical vortex with winds reaching a maximum of ~200 m/s near 87° S lat. and then falling off to zero at the pole. In contrast

ALMA observations of Titan's atmospheric chemistry and seasonal variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordiner, Martin

2017-04-01

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn, with a thick (1.45 bar) atmosphere composed primarily of molecular nitrogen and methane. Photochemistry in Titan's upper atmosphere results in the production of a wide range of organic molecules, including hydrocarbons, nitriles and aromatics, some of which could be of pre-biotic relevance. Thus, we obtain insights into the possible molecular inventories of primitive (reducing) planetary atmospheres. Titan's atmosphere also provides a unique laboratory for testing our understanding of fundamental processes involving the chemistry and spectroscopy of complex organic molecules. In this talk, results will be presented from our studies using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) during the period 2012-2015, focussing in particular on the detection and mapping of emission from various nitrile species. By combining data from multiple ALMA observations, our spectra have reached an unprecedented sensitivity level, enabling the first spectroscopic detection and mapping of C2H3CN (vinyl cyanide) on Titan. Liquid-phase simulations of Titan's seas indicate that vinyl cyanide molecules could combine to form vesicle membranes (similar to the cells of terrestrial biology), and the astrobiological implications of this discovery will be discussed. Furthermore, ALMA observations provide instantaneous snapshot mapping of Titan's entire Earth-facing hemisphere, for gases inaccessible to previous instruments. Combined with complementary data obtained from the Cassini Saturn orbiter, as well as theoretical models and laboratory studies, our observed, seasonally variable, spatially resolved abundance patterns are capable of providing new insights into photochemical production and transport in primitive planetary atmospheres in the Solar System and beyond.

Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max

2010-01-01

This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

Annual and Seasonal Variability of Net Heat Budget in the Northern Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinker, Rachel T.; Bentamy, Abderrahim; Chen, Wen; Kumar, M. R. Ramesh; Mathew, Simi; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the spatial and temporal features of the net heat budget over the Northern Indian Ocean (focusing on the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal), using satellite and numerical model estimates. The main objective is to characterize the annual, seasonal, and inter-annual patterns over this basin of climatic significance. To assess the temporal variability, several turbulent and radiative fluxes are used The turbulent fluxes are based on information from the Institut Français pout la Recherche et l'Exploitation de la MER (IFREMER V3), the Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters from Satellite (HOAPS V3), the SEAFLUX V1, the Japanese Ocean Flux Data sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO V2), the Objective Analysis Fluxes (OAFlux V2), the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the ERA Interim, the National centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR, and the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA). The radiative fluxes, both shortwave and longwave, include those produced at the University of Maryland (UMD) as well as those derived from several of the above mentioned numerical models. An attempt will be made to evaluate the various fluxes against buoy observations such as those from the RAMA array. The National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai, India under its Ocean Observation Program has deployed a series of OMNI Buoys both in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These buoys are equipped with sensors to measure the radiation as well as other parameters. Comparison has been done with the OMNI observations and good agreement has been found with the current set-up of the instrument at a 3 m level. We found significant differences between the various products at specific locations. The ultimate objective is to investigates the sources of the differences in terms of atmospheric variables (surface

Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems - Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, H. D.; Keeling, R. F.; Piper, S. C.; Patra, P. K.; Stephens, B. B.; Wofsy, S. C.; Welp, L. R.; Sweeney, C.; Tans, P. P.; Kelley, J. J.; Daube, B. C.; Kort, E. A.; Santoni, G.; Bent, J. D.; Thomas, R.; Prentice, I. C.

2014-12-01

Long-term measurements of atmospheric CO2 have revealed increasing amplitude in seasonal variations at Northern Hemisphere sites. In a recent paper1, we extended the analysis of seasonal CO2 amplitude using aircraft data from 1958-61 and 2009-11 and found large increases of 50% in the mid-troposphere north of 45°N. Changes in amplitude south of 45°N were less than 25%. The observations indicate that seasonal CO2 exchanges with northern terrestrial ecosystems must have increased by 30-60% over the past 50 years. The increased exchange is likely widespread over northern ecosystems but it must be focused in boreal forests to match the observed spatial pattern in the aircraft data. Small decreases in seasonal CO2 exchange of subtropical and tropical regions may also contribute to CO2 amplitude changes. The required increases in seasonal CO2 exchange in northern ecosystems are larger than simulated by terrestrial models, indicating the models do not capture substantial ecological changes occurring since 1960. This presentation will give an overview of the recent paper1, highlighting the atmospheric evidence for a dominant influence from boreal forests and from the main growing season months. It will also expand on the investigation of modeled changes in seasonal CO2 flux using CMIP5 and other model intercomparisons, including the modeled influences of carbon vs climate drivers. 1. Graven et al. 2013, Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960, Science, 341, 6150, 1085-1089. DOI: 10.1126/science.1239207

Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; de Carvalho, Claudio Reis; Genovese, Vanessa Brooks; Torregrosa, Alicia; Dungan, Jennifer; Bobo, Matthew; Coughlan, Joseph

2001-05-01

Previous field measurements have implied that undisturbed Amazon forests may represent a substantial terrestrial sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. We investigated this hypothesis using a regional ecosystem model for net primary production (NPP) and soil biogeochemical cycling. Seasonal and interannual controls on net ecosystem production (NEP) were studied with integration of high-resolution (8-km) multiyear satellite data to characterize Amazon land surface properties over time. Background analysis of temporal and spatial relationships between regional rainfall patterns and satellite observations (for vegetation land cover, fire counts, and smoke aerosol effects) reveals several notable patterns in the model driver data. Autocorrelation analysis for monthly vegetation "greenness" index (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and monthly rainfall indicates a significant lag time correlation of up to 12 months. At lag times approaching 36 months, autocorrelation function (ACF) values did not exceed the 95% confidence interval at locations west of about 47°W, which is near the transition zone of seasonal tropical forest and other (nonforest) vegetation types. Even at lag times of 12 months or less, the location near Manaus (approximately 60°W) represents the farthest western point in the Amazon region where seasonality of rainfall accounts significantly for monthly variations in forest phenology, as observed using NDVI. Comparisons of NDVI seasonal profiles in areas of the eastern Amazon widely affected by fires (as observed from satellite) suggest that our adjusted AVHRR-NDVI captures year-to-year variation in land cover greenness with minimal interference from small fires and smoke aerosols. Ecosystem model results using this newly generated combination of regional forcing data from satellite suggest that undisturbed Amazon forests can be strong net sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide

Seasonality, interannual variability, and linear tendency of wind speeds in the northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011.

PubMed

Torres Silva dos Santos, Alexandre; Moisés Santos e Silva, Cláudio

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study.

Seasonality, Interannual Variability, and Linear Tendency of Wind Speeds in the Northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011

PubMed Central

Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study. PMID:24250267

Methane emission from Minnesota peatlands: Spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dise, Nancy. B.

1993-03-01

The variability of methane flux with season, year, and habitat type was investigated in northern Minnesota peatlands from September 1988 through September 1990. Average daily fluxes calculated by integration of annual data for an open poor fen, an open bog, a forested bog hollow, a fen lagg in the forested bog and a forested bog hummock were 180,118, 38, 35, and 10 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, respectively. Fluxes among the five ecosystems were significantly different from one another, although emission from all sites was highest in July and lowest in March. Winter fluxes occurred in all sites but the fen lagg. There was no difference in fluxes measured from the same sites in the spring of 1986, 1989, or 1990, but summer fluxes were significantly higher in the wetter year of 1989 than in 1990, and a summer pulse in methane emission occurred in 1989 that was not seen the next year. Concentrations of methane in pore water, reflecting the seasonal balance of production, oxidation, and release, declined during the month of peak flux, then increased to levels of about 500 μM in December. Consistent spatial and temporal differences in flux could be ascribed to differences in water table, temperature, and peat nutrient status, although additional variability remained. Integration gave an annual average flux of 20 g CH4, m-2 ot; for the three bog ecosystems and 39 g CH4, m-2 for the two fen ecosystems. This gives an estimate of 1-2 Tg CH4, yr-1 from peatlands in the Great Lake states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

The Seasonal Cycle of Carbon in the Southern Pacific Ocean Observed from Biogeochemical Profiling Floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Gray, A. R.; Johnson, K. S.; Carter, B.; Riser, S.; Talley, L. D.; Williams, N. L.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean is thought to play an important role in the ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide and the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. However, the total number of observations of the carbonate system in this region is small and heavily biased towards the summer. Here we present 1.5 years of biogeochemical measurements, including pH, oxygen, and nitrate, collected by 11 autonomous profiling floats deployed in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean in April 2014. These floats sampled a variety of oceanographic regimes ranging from the seasonally ice-covered zone to the subtropical gyre. Using an algorithm trained with bottle measurements, alkalinity is estimated from salinity, temperature, and oxygen and then used together with the measured pH to calculate total carbon dioxide and pCO2 in the upper 1500 dbar. The seasonal cycle in the biogeochemical quantities is examined, and the factors governing pCO2 in the surface waters are analyzed. The mechanisms driving the seasonal cycle of carbon are further investigated by computing budgets of heat, carbon, and nitrogen in the mixed layer. Comparing the different regimes sampled by the floats demonstrates the complex and variable nature of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

2017-03-01

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Coupled Modes over Indian Ocean at Sub-seasonal time Scales and its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, E.; Kirtman, B. P.

2014-12-01

Sub-seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean, such as Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts weather and climate globally. However, the prediction of tropical sub-seasonal variability (TSV) remains a challenge, and understanding air-sea interactions on TSV time-scales is likely to be an important part of the prediction problem. The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The analysis emphasizes on variability associated with coupled air-sea interactions in observational estimates, and how well these coupled modes are simulated and predicted within the context of a 30-year retrospective forecast experiment with a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled model. The analysis shows that Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Indian Ocean tend to precede precipitation anomalies by 7-11 days with maximum amplitude over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for summer and along the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) region for winter. Though these coupled modes are captured by the models, the forecasts fail to predict its evolution. Based on the diagnosis of these coupled modes, we introduce a SCTR-SST index and an index that measures the modulation of the low-frequency amplitude (LFAM) of sub-seasonal SSTA variability over SCTR as a way to predict the coupled modes. Based on correlation with the observed variability, SCTR-SST has forecast skill of about 45 days over the Indian Ocean. However the sub-seasonal SSTAs in the predictions and the observational estimates do not have any direct ENSO tele-connection. In contrast, the LFAM of the sub-seasonal SSTA variance over SCTR is strongly correlated with ENSO, suggesting enhanced sub-seasonal variance on seasonal time-scales is potentially predictable.

Seasonally Distinct Reconstructions of Northern Alaskan Temperature Variability Since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Crowther, J.; Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Morrill, C.; Zhang, X.; Wang, X.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions have provided little consensus on how continental temperatures in Eastern Beringia changed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. Reconstructions show regional differences in LGM severity, the timing of deglacial warming, and Holocene temperature variability. Currently, arctic temperatures are increasing at the fastest rates on the planet, highlighting the need to identify the sensitivities of arctic systems to various climate forcings. This cannot be done without resolving the complex climate history of Eastern Beringia. Here, we present two new organic geochemical temperature reconstructions from Lake E5, north central Alaska that span the LGM, last glacial termination and Holocene. The proxies (alkenones and brGDGTs) record seasonally distinct temperatures, allowing for the attribution of different forcings to each proxy. The alkenone-based UK37 reconstruction records spring/early summer lake temperatures and indicates a 4 oC abrupt warming at 13.1 ka and a relatively warm late Holocene, which peaks at 2.4 ka and exhibits a cooling trend from 2.4 to 0.1 ka. The brGDGT reconstruction is calibrated to mean annual air temperature and interpreted here as exhibiting a strong warm season bias. BrGDGTs show an abrupt 4.5 oC warming at 14 ka, and show evidence for an early Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), which cools by 3 oC after 8.4 ka. Because UK37 temperatures do not exhibit an early HTM, we hypothesize that summer insolation had a minimal effect on spring/early summer lake temperatures. Instead, the UK37 reconstruction agrees with sea ice and sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and northeast Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that forcings associated with sea ice concentration and changes in atmospheric circulation had stronger affects on spring/early summer lake temperatures and we present modern observational data in support of this hypothesis. By contrast, the summer-biased br

Contemporary Model Fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the Diurnal Cycle, Synoptic, Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranowski, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting is the fidelity in representing the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC). In reality both propagating and non-propagating MJO events are observed, but in numerical forecast the latter group largely dominates. For this study, comprehensive model performances are evaluated using metrics that utilize the mean precipitation pattern and the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle, with a particular focus on the linkage between a model's local MC variability and its fidelity in representing propagation of the MJO and equatorial Kelvin waves across the MC. Subseasonal to seasonal variability of mean precipitation and its diurnal cycle in 20 year long climate simulations from over 20 general circulation models (GCMs) is examined to benchmark model performance. Our results show that many models struggle to represent the precipitation pattern over complex Maritime Continent terrain. Many models show negative biases of mean precipitation and amplitude of its diurnal cycle; these biases are often larger over land than over ocean. Furthermore, only a handful of models realistically represent the spatial variability of the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Models tend to correctly simulate the timing of the diurnal maximum of precipitation over ocean during local solar time morning, but fail to acknowledge influence of the land, with the timing of the maximum of precipitation there occurring, unrealistically, at the same time as over ocean. The day-to-day and seasonal variability of the mean precipitation follows observed patterns, but is often unrealistic for the diurnal cycle amplitude. The intraseasonal variability of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is mainly driven by model's ability (or lack of) to produce eastward propagating MJO-like signal. Our results show that many models tend to decrease apparent air-sea contrast in the mean

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard

2016-10-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (see ref. ) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe.

Tracking the seasonal cycle of coastal sea ice: Community-based observations and satellite remote sensing in service of societal needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eicken, Hajo; Lee, Olivia A.; Johnson, Mark A.; Pulsifer, Peter; Danielsen, Finn

2017-04-01

Break-up and freeze-up of coastal sea ice determine the timing and extent of a number of human activities, ranging from ice use by Indigenous hunters to coastal shipping. Yet, while major reductions in the extent of Arctic summer sea ice have been well studied, changes in its seasonal cycle have received less attention. Here, we discuss decadal scale changes and interannual variability in the timing of spring break-up and fall freeze-up, with a focus on coastal communities in Arctic Alaska. Observations of ice conditions by Indigenous sea-ice experts since 2006 indicate significant interannual variability in both the character and timing of freeze-up and break-up in the region. To aid in the archival and sharing of such observations, we have developed a database for community ice observations (eloka-arctic.org/sizonet). Development of this database addressed key questions ranging from community guidance on different levels of data sharing and access to the development of protocols that may lend themselves for implementation in the context of operational programs such as Global Cryosphere Watch. The lessons learned and tools developed through this effort may help foster the emergence of common observation protocols and sharing practices across the Arctic, as explored jointly with the Greenlandic PISUNA initiative and the European INTAROS project. For the Arctic Alaska region, we developed an algorithm to extract the timing of break-up and freeze-up from passive microwave satellite data, drawing on community-based observations. Data from 1979 to 2013 show break-up start arriving earlier by 5-9 days per decade and freeze-up start arriving later by 7-14 days per decade in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The trends towards a shorter ice season observed over the past several decades point towards a substantial change in the winter ice regime by mid-century with incipient overlap of the end of the freeze-up and start of the break-up season as defined by coastal ice users.

Heart rate variability in workers of various professions in contrasting seasons of the year.

PubMed

Markov, Alexander; Solonin, Iuriy; Bojko, Evgeniy

2016-01-01

It is known that professional occupation affects the heart rate variability (HRV). However, most studies have not taken into account seasonal features of the HRV. The aim of this study has been to evaluate the HRV differences in winter and in summer in the case of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) workers and scientific workers from the Komi Science Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The short-term HRV was examined for 13 EMERCOM workers and 13 scientific workers. The data was collected in winter (December) and summer (July) for the same groups of workers. The time domain and frequency domain HRV analyses were performed. The EMERCOM workers had more contact with the external environment than the scientific workers. The two-way analysis of variance with repeated observations on a single factor has shown that "Season" and interaction of two factors "Season" and "Profession" significantly influenced the HRV among volunteers. The "Profession" factor did not influence the HRV parameters (except for the heart rate in winter, p = 0.042). Seasonal changes in the HRV parameters were not significant in the case of scientific workers. In contrast, the EMERCOM workers showed significantly decreased parameters of parasympathetic activity (the root-mean-square of successive differences in RR intervals, percentage of consecutive RR intervals differing by > 50 ms and the relative value high frequency power, p = 0.001, p = 0.014 and p = 0.009, respectively) and increased parameters of sympathetic activity (the stress index and ratio of low-frequency power to high-frequency power, p = 0.012 and p = 0.006, respectively) in winter as compared to summer. The results of our study indicate that, unlike the scientific workers, the EMERCOM workers showed significant changes in the HRV in contrasting seasons (winter and summer). A season of a year should be

Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.

2017-12-01

While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

Seasonal groundwater contribution to crop-water use assessed with lysimeter observations and model simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Y.; Sophocleous, M.

2010-01-01

Groundwater evaporation can play an important role in crop-water use where the water table is shallow. Lysimeters are often used to quantify the groundwater evaporation contribution influenced by a broad range of environmental factors. However, it is difficult for such field facilities, which are operated under limited conditions within limited time, to capture the whole spectrum of capillary upflow with regard to the inter-seasonal variability of climate, especially rainfall. Therefore, in this work, the method of combining lysimeter and numerical experiments was implemented to investigate seasonal groundwater contribution to crop-water use. Groundwater evaporation experiments were conducted through a weighing lysimeter at an agricultural experiment station located within an irrigation district in the lower Yellow River Basin for two winter wheat growth seasons. A HYDRUS-1D model was first calibrated and validated with weighing lysimeter data, and then was employed to perform scenario simulations of groundwater evaporation under different depths to water table (DTW) and water input (rainfall plus irrigation) driven by long term meteorological data. The scenario simulations revealed that the seasonally averaged groundwater evaporation amount was linearly correlated to water input for different values of DTW. The linear regression could explain more than 70% of the variability. The seasonally averaged ratio of the groundwater contribution to crop-water use varied with the seasonal water input and DTW. The ratio reached as high as 75% in the case of DTW=1.0. m and no irrigation, and as low as 3% in the case of DTW=3.0. m and three irrigation applications. The results also revealed that the ratio of seasonal groundwater evaporation to potential evapotranspiration could be fitted to an exponential function of the DTW that may be applied to estimate seasonal groundwater evaporation. In this case study of multilayered soil profile, the depth at which groundwater may

Change and variability in East antarctic sea ice seasonality, 1979/80-2009/10.

PubMed

Massom, Robert; Reid, Philip; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Raymond, Ben; Fraser, Alexander; Ushio, Shuki

2013-01-01

Recent analyses have shown that significant changes have occurred in patterns of sea ice seasonality in West Antarctica since 1979, with wide-ranging climatic, biological and biogeochemical consequences. Here, we provide the first detailed report on long-term change and variability in annual timings of sea ice advance, retreat and resultant ice season duration in East Antarctica. These were calculated from satellite-derived ice concentration data for the period 1979/80 to 2009/10. The pattern of change in sea ice seasonality off East Antarctica comprises mixed signals on regional to local scales, with pockets of strongly positive and negative trends occurring in near juxtaposition in certain regions e.g., Prydz Bay. This pattern strongly reflects change and variability in different elements of the marine "icescape", including fast ice, polynyas and the marginal ice zone. A trend towards shorter sea-ice duration (of 1 to 3 days per annum) occurs in fairly isolated pockets in the outer pack from∼95-110°E, and in various near-coastal areas that include an area of particularly strong and persistent change near Australia's Davis Station and between the Amery and West Ice Shelves. These areas are largely associated with coastal polynyas that are important as sites of enhanced sea ice production/melt. Areas of positive trend in ice season duration are more extensive, and include an extensive zone from 160-170°E (i.e., the western Ross Sea sector) and the near-coastal zone between 40-100°E. The East Antarctic pattern is considerably more complex than the well-documented trends in West Antarctica e.g., in the Antarctic Peninsula-Bellingshausen Sea and western Ross Sea sectors.

Seasonal variability of thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Yun; Qi, Yiquan; Shi, Ping

The 8-year (1991-1998) Pathfinder sea surface temperature data have been applied here to produce the objectively derived seasonality of the oceanic thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from 17°N to 25°N. Several fronts have been clearly distinguished, namely, Fujian and Guangdong Coastal Water, Pear River Estuary Coastal, Taiwan Bank, Kuroshio Intrusion, Hainan Island East Coast and Tonkin Gulf Coastal fronts. The frontal patterns in winter, spring and summer are quite similar, whereas individual fronts display different modes of seasonal variability due to different mechanisms favoring those fronts.

Understanding the Longitudinal Variability of Equatorial Electrodynamics using integrated Ground- and Space-based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yizengaw, E.; Moldwin, M.; Zesta, E.

2015-12-01

The currently funded African Meridian B-Field Education and Research (AMBER) magnetometer array comprises more than thirteen magnetometers stationed globally in the vicinity of geomagnetic equator. One of the main objectives of AMBER network is to understand the longitudinal variability of equatorial electrodynamics as function of local time, magnetic activity, and season. While providing complete meridian observation in the region and filling the largest land-based gap in global magnetometer coverage, the AMBER array addresses two fundamental areas of space physics: first, the processes governing electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere as a function of latitude (or L-shell), local time, longitude, magnetic activity, and season, and second, ULF pulsation strength at low/mid-latitude regions and its connection with equatorial electrojet and density fluctuation. The global AMBER network can also be used to augment observations from space-based instruments, such us the triplet SWARM mission and the upcoming ICON missions. Thus, in coordination with space-based and other ground-based observations, the AMBER magnetometer network provides a great opportunity to understand the electrodynamics that governs equatorial ionosphere motions. In this paper we present the longitudinal variability of the equatorial electrodynamics using the combination of instruments onboard SWARM and C/NOFS satellites and ground-based AMBER network. Both ground- and pace-based observations show stronger dayside and evening sector equatorial electrodynamics in the American and Asian sectors compared to the African sector. On the other hand, the African sector is home to stronger and year-round ionospheric bubbles/irregularities compared to the American and Asian sectors. This raises the question if the evening sector equatorial electrodynamics (vertical drift), which is believed to be the main cause for the enhancement of Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability growth rate, is stronger in the

The effect of modeled absolute timing variability and relative timing variability on observational learning.

PubMed

Grierson, Lawrence E M; Roberts, James W; Welsher, Arthur M

2017-05-01

There is much evidence to suggest that skill learning is enhanced by skill observation. Recent research on this phenomenon indicates a benefit of observing variable/erred demonstrations. In this study, we explore whether it is variability within the relative organization or absolute parameterization of a movement that facilitates skill learning through observation. To do so, participants were randomly allocated into groups that observed a model with no variability, absolute timing variability, relative timing variability, or variability in both absolute and relative timing. All participants performed a four-segment movement pattern with specific absolute and relative timing goals prior to and following the observational intervention, as well as in a 24h retention test and transfers tests that featured new relative and absolute timing goals. Absolute timing error indicated that all groups initially acquired the absolute timing, maintained their performance at 24h retention, and exhibited performance deterioration in both transfer tests. Relative timing error revealed that the observation of no variability and relative timing variability produced greater performance at the post-test, 24h retention and relative timing transfer tests, but for the no variability group, deteriorated at absolute timing transfer test. The results suggest that the learning of absolute timing following observation unfolds irrespective of model variability. However, the learning of relative timing benefits from holding the absolute features constant, while the observation of no variability partially fails in transfer. We suggest learning by observing no variability and variable/erred models unfolds via similar neural mechanisms, although the latter benefits from the additional coding of information pertaining to movements that require a correction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variability of light availability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegel, David A.; Michaels, Anthony F.; Sorensen, Jens C.; O'Brein, Margaret C.; Hammer, Melodie A.

1995-01-01

A 2 year time series of optical, biogeochemical, and physical parameters, taken near the island of Bermuda, is used to evaluate the sources of temporal variability in light avaliability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea. Integrated assessments of light availability are made by examining the depth of constant percent incident photosynthetically available radiation (% PAR) isolumes. To first order, changes in the depth %PAR isolumes were caused by physical processes: deep convection mixing in the winter which led to the spring bloom and concurrent shallowing of %PAR depths and the occurrence of anomalous thermohaline water masses during the summer and fall seasons. Spectral light availability variations are assessed using determinations of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra which illustrates a significant seasonal cycle in colored detrital particulate and/or dissolved materials that is unrelated to changes in chlorophyll pigment concentrations. Temporal variations in the photosynthetic light utilization index Psi are used to assess vertically intergrated light utilization variations. Values of Psi are highly variable and show no apparent seasonal pattern which indicates that Psi is not simply a 'biogeochemical constant.' Determinations of in situ primary production rates and daily mean PAR fluxes are used to diagnose the relative role of light limitation in determining vertically integrated rates of primary production integral PP. The mean depth of the light-saturated zone (the vertical region where the daily mean PAR flux was greater than or equal to the saturation irradiance) is only approximately 40 m, although more than one half of interal PP occurred within this zone. Production model results illustrate that accurate predictions of integral PP are dependent upon rates of light-saturated production rather than upon indices of light limitation. It seems unlikely that significant improvements in simple primary production models will come from the

Variability in range cow mineral use is associated with season and daily high temperature in Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate assessment of mineral nutrition in range cattle is complicated by seasonal changes in diet mineral concentrations, shifting requirements and a lack of knowledge of seasonal mineral intake variability. This study was designed to evaluate variation in herd mineral intake, and individual cow m...

OH-asterisk (7-5) Meinel band dayglow and nightglow measured by the SME limb scanning near infrared spectrometer - Comparison of the observed seasonal variability with two-dimensional model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le Texier, H.; Solomon, S.; Thomas, R. J.; Garcia, R. R.

1989-01-01

Seasonal variations of the OH-asterisk (7-5) mesospheric hydroxyl emission at 1.89 microns observed by the SME near-IR spectrometer are compared with the theoretical predictions of a two-dimensional dynamical/chemical model. The good agreement found at low latitudes for both dayglow and nightglow provides support for the model assumption that breaking gravity waves induce seasonal and latitudinal variations in diffusion. The seasonal behavior of atomic hydrogen in the upper mesosphere (related to vertical transport) and/or uncertainties in the OH Meinel band parameters are proposed as possible explanations for the discrepancy noted between model and observational data for the middle latitudes.

Photosynthetic responses of C3 and C4 species to seasonal water variability and competition.

PubMed

Niu, Shuli; Yuan, Zhiyou; Zhang, Yanfang; Liu, Weixing; Zhang, Lei; Huang, Jianhui; Wan, Shiqiang

2005-11-01

This study examined the impacts of seasonal water variability and interspecific competition on the photosynthetic characteristics of a C3 (Leymus chinensis) and a C4 (Chloris virgata) grass species. Plants received the same amount of water but in three seasonal patterns, i.e. the one-peak model (more water in the summer than in the spring and autumn), the two-peak model (more water in the spring and autumn than in the summer), and the average model (water evenly distributed over the growing season). The effects of water variability on the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were dependent on season. There were significant differences in the photosynthetic characteristics of the C4 species in the summer and the C3 species in the autumn among the three water treatments. Interspecific competition exerted negative impacts on the C3 species in August and September but had no effects on the C4 species in any of the four measuring dates. The relative competitive capability of the two species was not altered by water availability. The assimilation rate, the maximum quantum yield of net CO2 assimilation, and the maximum rate of carboxylation of the C3 species were 13-56%, 5-11%, and 11-48% greater, respectively, in a monoculture than in a mixture in August and September. The results demonstrated that the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were affected by water availability, but the effects varied considerably with season.

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya - Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability.

PubMed

Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M G; Maass, Brigitte L; Whitbread, Anthony M

2017-01-01

production, reaching very high grain yields at high potential sites (3,000 kg ha -1 ) but being highly susceptible to in-season drought. Lablab seemed to be best adapted to dry environments. Its canopy architecture appeared to be best in compromising between the investment in biomass as a prerequisite to accumulate grain yield by minimizing water loss through soil evaporation and crop transpiration. This lead to grain yields of up to 2,000 kg ha -1 at high potential sites and >1,000 kg ha -1 at low potential sites. The variance of observed and simulated WUE was high and no clear dependency on total rainfall alone was observed for all three short-season grain legumes, highlighting that pattern of water use is also important in determining final WUE biomass and WUE grain . Mean WUE grain was lowest for cowpea (1.5-3.5 kg grain ha -1 mm -1 ) and highest for lablab (5-7 kg grain ha -1 mm -1 ) reflecting the high susceptibility to drought of cowpea and the good adaptation to dry environments of lablab. Results highlight that, based on specific morphological, phonological, and physiological characteristics, the three short-season grain legumes follow different strategies to cope with climate variability. The climate-smart site-specific utilization of the three legumes offers promising options to design more resilient and productive farming systems in semi-arid Eastern Kenya.

Seasonal variability in physiological and anatomical traits contributes to invasion success of Prosopis juliflora in tropical dry forest.

PubMed

Oliveira, Marciel T; Souza, Gustavo M; Pereira, Silvia; Oliveira, Deborah A S; Figueiredo-Lima, Karla V; Arruda, Emília; Santos, Mauro G

2017-03-01

We investigated whether there were consistent differences in the physiological and anatomical traits and phenotypic variability of an invasive (Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC.) and native species (Anadenanthera colubrina (Vell.) Brenan) in response to seasonality in a tropical dry forest. The water potential, organic solutes, gas exchange, enzymes of the antioxidant system, products of oxidative stress and anatomical parameters were evaluated in both species in response to seasonality. An analysis of physiological responses indicated that the invasive P. juliflora exhibited higher response in net photosynthetic rate to that of the native species between seasons. Higher values of water potential of the invasive species than those of the native species in the dry season indicate a more efficient mechanism for water regulation in the invasive species. The invasive species exhibits a thicker cuticle and trichomes, which can reduce transpiration. In combination, the increased epidermal thickness and the decreased thickness of the parenchyma in the dry season may contribute to water saving. Our data suggest a higher variability in anatomical traits in the invasive species as a response to seasonality, whereas physiological traits did not present a clear pattern of response. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A 242-year seasonal-resolved speleothem record from Hainan Island: A window into variability of the precipitation δ18O in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Y.; An, Z.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Zhang, H.; Tan, L.; Bi, H.

2016-12-01

Hainan Island is located at the gateway of East Asian summer monsoon to the continent. The typical tropical monsoon climate at Hainan island is characterized by wet season during the summer and autumn and dry season during the winter and spring. Here, we present a seasonal resolved speleothem record spanning 242 years ( 50-292 AD) from Xianren Cave (E109°25`, N18°34`), which is situated in the Baoting County, Hainan Province. The monitoring inside the cave shows that the relative humidity kept saturated during the observed periods (one and half years) while the temperature varied seasonally following the temperature changes outside the cave, but with much smaller amplitude. Monthly observation of drip water inside the cave indicates that the isotope composition of drip water mainly responds to the changes in the precipitation isotope composition with less than two months' resident time. The visible annual lamination and distinct fluctuations of calcite Mg, Sr and Ba concentrations corroborate that the high-frequency oscillations of calcite δ18O largely capture the seasonal variation of the isotope composition of precipitation, although the temperature effect cannot be excluded. By setting the heaviest value of annual variation of calcite δ18O as the beginning of each annual cycle, we transferred the δ18O record of 11.2 cm in depth to a δ18O record of 242-year in age. The δ18O record of stalagmite XR-3 demonstrate clearly the annual, decadal and multi-decadal variations of amplitude from 2 to 4‰, in addition to the seasonal oscillation of amplitude varied from 1.5 to 2.5‰. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition results show that the dominant variability (54.6% of the total variance) is captured by the components at the timescale of 3-7 year, while the components on timescales of 22-24 -year, 80-year and 120-year capture 35.0%, 7.0% and 3.4% of the variance, respectively. We contribute the variability of speleothem δ18O at the timescale of 3-7 -year to

Seasonal variability in the persistence of dissolved environmental DNA (eDNA) in a marine system: The role of microbial nutrient limitation

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) can be defined as the DNA pool recovered from an environmental sample that includes both extracellular and intracellular DNA. There has been a significant increase in the number of recent studies that have demonstrated the possibility to detect macroorganisms using eDNA. Despite the enormous potential of eDNA to serve as a biomonitoring and conservation tool in aquatic systems, there remain some important limitations concerning its application. One significant factor is the variable persistence of eDNA over natural environmental gradients, which imposes a critical constraint on the temporal and spatial scales of species detection. In the present study, a radiotracer bioassay approach was used to quantify the kinetic parameters of dissolved eDNA (d-eDNA), a component of extracellular DNA, over an annual cycle in the coastal Northwest Mediterranean. Significant seasonal variability in the biological uptake and turnover of d-eDNA was observed, the latter ranging from several hours to over one month. Maximum uptake rates of d-eDNA occurred in summer during a period of intense phosphate limitation (turnover <5 hrs). Corresponding increases in bacterial production and uptake of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) demonstrated the microbial utilization of d-eDNA as an organic phosphorus substrate. Higher temperatures during summer may amplify this effect through a general enhancement of microbial metabolism. A partial least squares regression (PLSR) model was able to reproduce the seasonal cycle in d-eDNA persistence and explained 60% of the variance in the observations. Rapid phosphate turnover and low concentrations of bioavailable phosphate, both indicative of phosphate limitation, were the most important parameters in the model. Abiotic factors such as pH, salinity and oxygen exerted minimal influence. The present study demonstrates significant seasonal variability in the persistence of d-eDNA in a natural marine environment that can be linked to the

Seasonal and interannual variability of mesozooplankton in two contrasting estuaries of the Bay of Biscay: Relationship to environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villate, Fernando; Iriarte, Arantza; Uriarte, Ibon; Sanchez, Iraide

2017-12-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of total mesozooplankton abundance and community variability were assessed for the period 1998-2005 at 3 salinity sites (35, 33 and 30) of the estuaries of Bilbao and Urdaibai (southeast Bay of Biscay). Spatial differences in mesozooplankton seasonality were recognized, both within and between estuaries, related to differences between sites in hydrodynamic features and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment that drive phytoplankton biomass seasonal cycles. The within estuary seasonal differences in mesozooplankton community were mainly shown through seaward time-advances in the seasonal peak from summer to spring along the salinity gradient, linked to differences in phytoplankton availability during the summer, in turn, related to nutrient availability. These differences were most marked in the estuary of Urdaibai, where zooplankton seasonal pattern at 35 salinity (high tidal flushing) resembled that of shelf waters, while at 35 of the estuary of Bilbao zooplankton showed an estuarine seasonal pattern due to the influence of the estuarine plume. Cirripede larvae contributed most to the mesozooplankton seasonal variability, except at the outer estuary of Bilbao, where cladocerans and fish eggs and larvae were the major contributors, and the inner estuary of Urdaibai, where gastropod larvae contributed most. Total mesozooplankton increased at 30 salinity of the estuary of Bilbao and 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. Interannual variability of mesozooplankton at the lowest salinity of the estuary of Bilbao was mainly accounted for by copepods due to the introduction of non-indigenous species during estuarine rehabilitation from intense pollution. However, bivalve larvae and gastropod larvae showed the highest contributions at 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. At the rest of sites, the opposite interannual trends of polychaete larvae and hydromedusae generally made the highest contribution.

Volatile Transport on Pluto: First Results from the 2013 Observing Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buratti, B. J.; Dalba, P. A.; Hicks, M.; Chu, D.; O'Neill, A.; Chesley, J. P.

2013-12-01

With the New Horizons spacecraft due to encounter Pluto in slightly less than two years, close scrutiny of this dwarf ice planet has begun in earnest. Ground-based observations are especially critical for context and for a larger temporal excursion. Seasonal transport of volatiles should occur on Pluto, and this transport should be detectable through changes in its rotational light curve, once all variations due to viewing geometry have been modeled. Giving the steady increase observed in Pluto's atmospheric pressure over the past two decades, associated sublimation of frost from the surface has likely occurred, as predicted by volatile transport models. Rotational light curves of Pluto through time have been created for static frost models based on images from the Hubble Space Telescope. These models, which account for changes in viewing geometry, have been compared with observed light curves obtained between 1950 and 2013. No evidence for transport was evident prior to 2000. Observations from 2002 (Buie et al., 2010, Astron. J. 139, 1128) and 2007-2008 (Hicks et al. 2008, B.A.A.S. 40, 460) suggest changes in the frost pattern on Pluto's surface. New observations of Pluto's light curve from the 2013 season from Table Mountain Observatory show no evidence for the large transport of volatiles on Pluto's surface. Our data are the first measurement of a large opposition surge on Pluto similar to that seen on other icy bodies. Both Buie et al. (2010) and our observations from the 2012-2013 seasons show that Pluto is becoming more red in color. This observation makes sense if nitrogen is being removed from the surface to uncover a red, photolyzed substrate of methane. Funded by NASA.

Role of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and its interannual variability in simulation of seasonal mean in CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Aher, Vaishali R.

2018-01-01

Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which appears as "active" and "break" spells of rainfall, is an important component of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The present study investigates the potential of new National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the ISO with emphasis to its interannual variability (IAV) and its possible role in the seasonal mean rainfall. The present analysis shows that the spatial distribution of CFSv2 rainfall has noticeable differences with observations in both ISO and IAV time scales. Active-break cycle of CFSv2 has similar evolution during both strong and weak years. Regardless of a reasonable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon teleconnection in the model, the overestimated Arabian Sea (AS) sea surface temperature (SST)-convection relationship hinters the large-scale influence of ENSO over the ISM region and adjacent oceans. The ISO scale convections over AS and Bay of Bengal (BoB) have noteworthy contribution to the seasonal mean rainfall, opposing the influence of boundary forcing in these areas. At the same time, overwhelming contribution of ISO component over AS towards the seasonal mean modifies the effect of slow varying boundary forcing to large-scale summer monsoon. The results here underline that, along with the correct simulation of monsoon ISO, its IAV and relationship with the boundary forcing also need to be well captured in coupled models for the accurate simulation of seasonal mean anomalies of the monsoon and its teleconnections.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

2016-04-01

This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme

Stratospheric influence on the seasonal cycle of nitrous oxide in the troposphere as deduced from aircraft observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishijima, Kentaro; Patra, Prabir K.; Takigawa, Masayuki; Machida, Toshinobu; Matsueda, Hidekazu; Sawa, Yosuke; Steele, L. Paul; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Aoki, Shuji; Nakazawa, Takakiyo

2010-10-01

The atmospheric N2O variations between the Earth's surface and the lower stratosphere, simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model-based chemistry transport model (ACTM), are compared with aircraft and satellite observations. We validate the newly developed ACTM simulations of N2O for loss rate and transport in the stratosphere using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura-MLS), with optimized surface fluxes for reproducing N2O trends observed at the surface stations. Observations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) obtained by the Japan AirLines commercial flights commuting between Narita (36°N), Japan, and Sydney (34°S), Australia, have been used to study the role of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) on N2O variability near the tropopause. Low N2O concentration events in the UT region are shown to be captured statistically significantly by the ACTM simulation. This is attributed to successful reproduction of stratospheric air intrusion events and N2O vertical/horizontal gradients in the lower stratosphere. The meteorological fields and N2O concentrations reproduced in the ACTM are used to illustrate the mechanisms of STE and subsequent downward propagation of N2O-depleted stratospheric air in the troposphere. Aircraft observations of N2O vertical profile over Surgut (West Siberia, Russia; 61°N), Sendai-Fukuoka (Japan; 34°N-38°N), and Cape Grim (Tasmania, Australia; 41°S) have been used to estimate the relative contribution of surface fluxes, transport seasonality in the troposphere, and STE to N2O seasonal cycles at different altitude levels. Stratospheric N2O tracers are incorporated in the ACTM for quantitative estimation of the stratospheric influence on tropospheric N2O. The results suggest strong latitude dependency of the stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric N2O seasonal cycle. The periods of seasonal minimum in the upper troposphere, which are spring over Japan and summer over Surgut

Seasonal hypoxia in eutrophic stratified coastal shelves: mechanisms, sensibilities and interannual variability from the North-Western Black Sea case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

2012-12-01

amount of semi-labile organic matter in the sediments (C) and the duration of the stratification (D). Eutrophication (N, C) and climate (T, D) predictors explain a similar amount of variability (~35%) when considered separately. A typical timescale of 9.3 yr is found to describe the inertia of sediments in the recovering process after eutrophication. From this analysis, we find that under standard conditions (i.e. average atmospheric conditions, sediments in equilibrium with river discharges), the intensity of hypoxia can be linked to the level of nitrate discharge through a non-linear equation (power law). Bottom hypoxia does not affect the whole Black Sea NWS but rather exhibits an important spatial variability. This heterogeneous distribution, in addition to the seasonal fluctuations, complicates the monitoring of bottom hypoxia leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. We find that it was the case after 1995 when the recovery process was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses the urging need of a dedicated monitoring effort in the NWS of the Black Sea focused on the areas and the period of the year concerned by recurrent hypoxic events.

The seasonal march of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean and its El Niño variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparin, Florent; Roemmich, Dean

2017-08-01

Based on two modern data sets, the climatological seasonal march of the upper-ocean is examined in the equatorial Pacific for the period 2004-2014, because of its large contribution to the total variance, its relationship to El Niño, and its unique equatorial wave phenomena. Argo provides a broadscale view of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean based on subsurface temperature and salinity measurements for the period 2004-2015, and satellite altimetry provides synoptic observations of the sea surface height (SSH) for the period 1993-2015. Using either 11-year (1993-2003/2004-2014) time-series for averaging, the seasonal Rossby waves stands out clearly and eastward intraseasonal Kelvin wave propagation is strong enough in individual years to leave residuals in the 11-year averages, particularly but not exclusively, during El Niño onset years. The agreement of altimetric SSH minus Argo steric height (SH) residuals with GRACE ocean mass estimates confirms the scale-matching of in situ variability with that of satellite observations. Surface layer and subsurface thermohaline variations are both important in determining SH and SSH basin-wide patterns. The SH/SSH October-November maximum in the central-eastern Pacific is primarily due to a downward deflection of the thermocline (∼20 m), causing a warm subsurface anomaly (>1 °C), in response to the phasing of downwelling intraseasonal Kelvin and seasonal Rossby waves. Compared with the climatology, the stronger October-November maximum in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites is due to higher intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability. Associated with these equatorial wave patterns along the thermocline, the western warm/fresh pool waters move zonally at interannual timescales through zonal wind stress and pressure gradient fluctuations, and cause substantial fresh (up to 0.6 psu) and warm (∼1 °C higher than the climatology) anomalies in the western-central Pacific surface-layer during the El Niño onset

Interannual and seasonal variability in short-term grazing impact of Euphausia superba in nearshore and offshore waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, R. M.; Quetin, L. B.; Haberman, K. L.

1998-11-01

Our focus in this paper is the interaction between macrozooplanktonic grazers and primary producers, and the interannual and seasonal variability in the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) study region from Anvers Island to Adelaide Island. Short-term grazing estimates are calculated by integrating (1) theoretical and experimental estimates of ingestion rates in response to the standing stock of phytoplankton, and (2) field measurements of phytoplankton standing stock and grazer biomass. Field data come from three austral summer cruises (January/February of 1993, 1994, and 1995) and one sequence of seasonal cruises (summer, fall and winter 1993). The relative and absolute abundance of the dominant macrozooplankton grazers, Euphausia superba and Salpa thompsoni, varied by at least an order of magnitude on the spatial and temporal scales observed. Mean grazing rates ranged from 0.4 to 9.0 μg chlorophyll m -2 h -1 for the Antarctic krill and salp populations over the three summer cruises. This leads to variability in the flow of carbon from the primary producers through the grazers on the same scales. Temporal and spatial variability in grazing impact and faecal pellet production are high.

Ball flight kinematics, release variability and in-season performance in elite baseball pitching.

PubMed

Whiteside, D; McGinnis, R S; Deneweth, J M; Zernicke, R F; Goulet, G C

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study was to quantify ball flight kinematics (ball speed, spin rate, spin axis orientation, seam orientation) and release location variability in the four most common pitch types in baseball and relate them to in-season pitching performance. Nine NCAA Division I pitchers threw four pitching variations (fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider) while a radar gun measured ball speed and a 600-Hz video camera recorded the ball trajectory. Marks on the ball were digitized to measure ball flight kinematics and release location. Ball speed was highest in the fastball, though spin rate was similar in the fastball and breaking pitches. Two distinct spin axis orientations were noted: one characterizing the fastball and changeup, and another, the curveball and slider. The horizontal release location was significantly more variable than the vertical release location. In-season pitching success was not correlated to any of the measured variables. These findings are instructive for inferring appropriate hand mechanics and spin types in each of the four pitches. Coaches should also be aware that ball flight kinematics might not directly relate to pitching success at the collegiate level. Therefore, talent identification and pitching evaluations should encompass other (e.g., cognitive, psychological, and physiological) factors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Data Assimilation using observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture for improving sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Lakshmi, V.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow provides critical information for water and agricultural systems to support short-term planning and mangement. This study evaluates the role of observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission in improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasting using data assimilation (DA). We first show the ability to forecast soil moisture at monthly-to-seaasonal time scale by forcing climate forecasts with NASA's Land Information System and then compares the developed soil moisture forecast with the SMAP data over the Southeast US. Our analyses show significant skill in forecasting real-time soil moisture over 1-3 months using climate information. We also show that the developed soil moisture forecasts capture the observed severe drought conditions (2007-2008) over the Southeast US. Following that, we consider both SMAP data and observed streamflow for improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasts for a pilot study area, Tar River basin, in NC. Towards this, we consider variational assimilation (VAR) of gauge-measured daily streamflow data in improving initial hydrologic conditions of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The utility of data assimilation is then assessed in improving S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture through a retrospective analyses. Furthermore, the optimal frequency of data assimilation and optimal analysis window (number of past observations to use) are also assessed in order to achieve the maximum improvement in S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture. Potential utility of updating initial conditions using DA and providing skillful forcings are also discussed.

Observed Differences between North American Snow Extent and Snow Depth Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Gong, G.

2006-12-01

Snow extent and snow depth are two related characteristics of a snowpack, but they need not be mutually consistent. Differences between these two variables at local scales are readily apparent. However at larger scales which interact with atmospheric circulation and climate, snow extent is typically the variable used, while snow depth is often assumed to be minor and/or mutually consistent compared to snow extent, though this is rarely verified. In this study, a new regional/continental-scale gridded dataset derived from field observations is utilized to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between snow extent and snow depth over North America. Various statistical methods are applied to assess the mutual consistency of monthly snow depth vs. snow extent, including correlations, composites and principal components. Results indicate that snow depth variations are significant in their own rights, and that depth and extent anomalies are largely unrelated, especially over broad high latitude regions north of the snowline. In the vicinity of the snowline, where precipitation and ablation can affect both snow extent and snow depth, the two variables vary concurrently, especially in autumn and spring. It is also found that deeper winter snow translates into larger snow-covered area in the subsequent spring/summer season, which suggests a possible influence of winter snow depth on summer climate. The observed lack of mutual consistency at continental/regional scales suggests that snowpack depth variations may be of sufficiently large magnitude, spatial scope and temporal duration to influence regional-hemispheric climate, in a manner unrelated to the more extensively studied snow extent variations.

Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

Seasonal to Mesoscale Variability of Water Masses in Barrow Canyon,Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, C.; Pickart, R. S.; Moore, K.; Ashjian, C. J.; Arrigo, K. R.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Vagle, S.; Itoh, M.; Berchok, C.; Stabeno, P. J.; Kikuchi, T.; Cooper, L. W.; Hartwell, I.; He, J.

2016-02-01

Barrow Canyon is one of the primary conduits by which Pacific-origin water exits the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin. As such, it is an ideal location to monitor the different water masses through the year. At the same time, the canyon is an energetic environment where mixing and entrainment can occur, modifying the pacific-origin waters. As part of the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) program, a transect across the canyon was occupied 24 times between 2010-2013 by international ships of opportunity passing through the region during summer and early-fall. Here we present results from an analysis of these sections to determine the seasonal evolution of the water masses and to investigate the nature of the mesoscale variability. The mean state shows the clear presence of six water masses present at various times through the summer. The seasonal evolution of these summer water masses is characterized both in depth space and in temperature-salinity (T-S) space. Clear patterns emerge, including the arrival of Alaskan coastal water and its modification in early-fall. The primary mesoscale variability is associated with wind-driven upwelling events which occur predominantly in September. The atmospheric forcing of these events is investigated as is the oceanic response.

Study of the daily and seasonal atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio variability in a rural Spanish region using 222Rn tracer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, Claudia; Vogel, Felix R.; Curcoll, Roger; Àgueda, Alba; Vargas, Arturo; Rodó, Xavier; Morguí, Josep-Anton

2018-04-01

The ClimaDat station at Gredos (GIC3) has been continuously measuring atmospheric (dry air) mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), as well as meteorological parameters, since November 2012. In this study we investigate the atmospheric variability of CH4 mixing ratios between 2013 and 2015 at GIC3 with the help of co-located observations of 222Rn concentrations, modelled 222Rn fluxes and modelled planetary boundary layer heights (PBLHs). Both daily and seasonal changes in atmospheric CH4 can be better understood with the help of atmospheric concentrations of 222Rn (and the corresponding fluxes). On a daily timescale, the variation in the PBLH is the main driver for 222Rn and CH4 variability while, on monthly timescales, their atmospheric variability seems to depend on emission changes. To understand (changing) CH4 emissions, nocturnal fluxes of CH4 were estimated using two methods: the radon tracer method (RTM) and a method based on the EDGARv4.2 bottom-up emission inventory, both using FLEXPARTv9.0.2 footprints. The mean value of RTM-based methane fluxes (FR_CH4) is 0.11 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.09 or 0.29 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.23 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 when using a rescaled 222Rn map (FR_CH4_rescale). For our observational period, the mean value of methane fluxes based on the bottom-up inventory (FE_CH4) is 0.33 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.08 mg CH4 m-2 h-1. Monthly CH4 fluxes based on RTM (both FR_CH4 and FR_CH4_rescale) show a seasonality which is not observed for monthly FE_CH4 fluxes. During January-May, RTM-based CH4 fluxes present mean values 25 % lower than during June-December. This seasonal increase in methane fluxes calculated by RTM for the GIC3 area appears to coincide with the arrival of transhumant livestock at GIC3 in the second half of the year.

An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

2013-12-01

As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

Study Variability of Seasonal Soil Moisture in Ensemble of CMIP5 Models Over South Asia During 1950-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahim, A. M.; Shen, R.; Yue, Z.; Di, W.; Mushtaq Shah, S.

2015-12-01

Moisture in the upper most layer of soil column from 14 different models under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) project were analyzed for four seasons of the year. Aim of this study was to explore variability in soil moisture over south Asia using multi model ensemble and relationship between summer rainfall and soil moisture for spring and summer season. GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) dataset set was used for comparing CMIP5 ensemble mean soil moisture in different season. Ensemble mean represents soil moisture well in accordance with the geographical features; prominent arid regions are indicated profoundly. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to study the variability. First component of EOF explains 17%, 16%, 11% and 11% variability for spring, summer, autumn and winter season respectively. Analysis reveal increasing trend in soil moisture over most parts of Afghanistan, Central and north western parts of Pakistan, northern India and eastern to south eastern parts of China, in spring season. During summer, south western part of India exhibits highest negative trend while rest of the study area show minute trend (increasing or decreasing). In autumn, south west of India is under highest negative loadings. During winter season, north western parts of study area show decreasing trend. Summer rainfall has very week (negative or positive) spatial correlation, with spring soil moisture, while possess higher correlation with summer soil moisture. Our studies have significant contribution to understand complex nature of land - atmosphere interactions, as soil moisture prediction plays an important role in the cycle of sink and source of many air pollutants. Next level of research should be on filling the gaps between accurately measuring the soil moisture using satellite remote sensing and land surface modelling. Impact of soil moisture in tracking down different types of pollutant will also be studied.

Seasonal variability of mesospheric water vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, P. R.; Bevilacqua, R. M.; Wilson, W. J.; Ricketts, W. B.; Howard, R. J.

1985-01-01

Ground-based spectral line measurements of the 22.2 GHz atmospheric water vapor line in emission were made at the JPL in order to obtain data in a dry climate, and to confirm similar measurements made at the Haystack Observatory. The results obtained from March 1984 to July 1984 and from December 1984 to May 1985, were based on data recorded by a HP9816 microcomputer. The instrument spectrometer was a 64 channel, 62.5 kHz resolution filter bank. Data indicates the existence of a seasonal variation in the abundance of water vapor in the upper mesosphere, with mixing ratios higher in summer than in spring. This is consistent with recent theoretical and observational results. In the area of semiannual oscillation, Haystack data are more consistent than those of JPL, indicating an annual cycle with abundances at maximum in summer and minimum in winter.

Temporal and spatial variability of frost-free seasons in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Jeffrey A. Andresen

2014-01-01

The frequency and timing of frost events and the length of the growing season are critical limiting factors in many human and natural ecosystems. This study investigates the temporal and spatial variability of the date of last spring frost (LSF), the date of first fall frost (FFF), and the length of the frost-free season (FFS) in the Great Lakes region of the United...

Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

2017-12-01

Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

Mechanisms of Mixed-Layer Salinity Seasonal Variability in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, Julia; Serra, Nuno; Bryan, Frank O.; Johnson, Benjamin K.; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

Based on a joint analysis of an ensemble mean of satellite sea surface salinity retrievals and the output of a high-resolution numerical ocean circulation simulation, physical processes are identified that control seasonal variations of mixed-layer salinity (MLS) in the Indian Ocean, a basin where salinity changes dominate changes in density. In the northern and near-equatorial Indian Ocean, annual salinity changes are mainly driven by respective changes of the horizontal advection. South of the equatorial region, between 45°E and 90°E, where evaporation minus precipitation has a strong seasonal cycle, surface freshwater fluxes control the seasonal MLS changes. The influence of entrainment on the salinity variance is enhanced in mid-ocean upwelling regions but remains small. The model and observational results reveal that vertical diffusion plays a major role in precipitation and river runoff dominated regions balancing the surface freshwater flux. Vertical diffusion is important as well in regions where the advection of low salinity leads to strong gradients across the mixed-layer base. There, vertical diffusion explains a large percentage of annual MLS variance. The simulation further reveals that (1) high-frequency small-scale eddy processes primarily determine the salinity tendency in coastal regions (in particular in the Bay of Bengal) and (2) shear horizontal advection, brought about by changes in the vertical structure of the mixed layer, acts against mean horizontal advection in the equatorial salinity frontal regions. Observing those latter features with the existing observational components remains a future challenge.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sun, Shengzhi; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Qiu, Hong; Wang, Yan; Wong, Chit Ming; Lee, Ruby Siu-Yin; Tian, Linwei

2018-04-05

Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Implementing seasonal carbon allocation into a dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Marleen; Kruijt, Bart; Hickler, Thomas; Forrest, Matthew; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Long-term measurements of terrestrial fluxes through the FLUXNET Eddy Covariance network have revealed that carbon and water fluxes can be highly variable from year-to-year. This so-called interannual variability (IAV) of ecosystems is not fully understood because a direct relation with environmental drivers cannot always be found. Many dynamic vegetation models allocate NPP to leaves, stems, and root compartments on an annual basis, and thus do not account for seasonal changes in productivity in response to changes in environmental stressors. We introduce this vegetation seasonality into dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS by implementing a new carbon allocation scheme on a daily basis. We focus in particular on modelling the observed flux seasonality of the Amazon basin, and validate our new model against fluxdata and MODIS GPP products. We expect that introducing seasonal variability into the model improves estimates of annual productivity and IAV, and therefore the model's representation of ecosystem carbon budgets as a whole.

Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M. G.; Maass, Brigitte L.; Whitbread, Anthony M.

2017-01-01

production, reaching very high grain yields at high potential sites (3,000 kg ha−1) but being highly susceptible to in-season drought. Lablab seemed to be best adapted to dry environments. Its canopy architecture appeared to be best in compromising between the investment in biomass as a prerequisite to accumulate grain yield by minimizing water loss through soil evaporation and crop transpiration. This lead to grain yields of up to 2,000 kg ha−1 at high potential sites and >1,000 kg ha−1 at low potential sites. The variance of observed and simulated WUE was high and no clear dependency on total rainfall alone was observed for all three short-season grain legumes, highlighting that pattern of water use is also important in determining final WUEbiomass and WUEgrain. Mean WUEgrain was lowest for cowpea (1.5–3.5 kggrain ha−1 mm−1) and highest for lablab (5–7 kggrain ha−1 mm−1) reflecting the high susceptibility to drought of cowpea and the good adaptation to dry environments of lablab. Results highlight that, based on specific morphological, phonological, and physiological characteristics, the three short-season grain legumes follow different strategies to cope with climate variability. The climate-smart site-specific utilization of the three legumes offers promising options to design more resilient and productive farming systems in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. PMID:28536585

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-02-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters.

Seasonal and high-resolution variability in hydrochemistry of the Andes-Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, E.; West, A. J.

2017-12-01

Stream hydrochemistry acts as a record of integrated catchment processes such as the amount of time it takes precipitation to flow through the subsurface and become streamflow (water transit times), water-rock interaction and biogeochemical cycling. Although it is understood that sampling interval affects observed patterns in hydrochemistry, most studies collect samples on a weekly, bi-weekly or monthly schedule due to lack of resources or the difficulty of maintaining automated sampling devices. Here, we attempt to combine information from two sampling time scales, comparing a year-long hydrochemical time series to data from a recent sub-daily sampling campaign. Starting in April 2016, river, soil and rain waters have been collected every two weeks at five small catchments spanning the tropical Andes and Amazon - a natural laboratory for its gradients in topography, erosion rates, precipitation, temperature and flora. Between January and March, 2017, we conducted high frequency sampling for approximately one week at each catchment, sampling at least every four hours including overnight. We will constrain young water fractions (Kirchner, 2016) and storm water fluxes for the experimental catchments using stable isotopes of water as conservative tracers. Major element data will provide the opportunity to make initial constraints on geochemical and hydrologic coupling. Preliminary results suggest that in the Amazon, hydrochemistry patterns are dependent on sampling frequency: the seasonal cycle in stable isotopes of water is highly damped, while the high resolution sampling displays large variability. This suggests that a two-week sampling interval is not frequent enough to capture rapid transport of water, perhaps through preferential flow networks. In the Andes, stable isotopes of water are highly damped in both the seasonal and high resolution cycle, suggesting that the catchment behaves as a "well-mixed" system.

Phenology Analysis of Forest Vegetation to Environmental Variables during - and Post-Monsoon Seasons in Western Himalayan Region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, S.; Latifi, H.; Ghosh, K.

2016-06-01

To assess the phenological changes in Moist Deciduous Forest (MDF) of western Himalayan region of India, we carried out NDVI time series analysis from 2013 to 2015 using Landsat 8 OLI data. We used the vegetation index differencing method to calculate the change in NDVI (NDVIchange) during pre and post monsoon seasons and these changes were used to assess the phenological behaviour of MDF by taking the effect of a set of environmental variables into account. To understand the effect of environmental variables on change in phenology, we designed a linear regression analysis with sample-based NDVIchange values as the response variable and elevation aspect, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) as explanatory variables. The Landsat-8 derived phenology transition stages were validated by calculating the phenology variation from Nov 2008 to April 2009 using Landsat-7 which has the same spatial resolution as Landsat-8. The Landsat-7 derived NDVI trajectories were plotted in accordance with MODIS derived phenology stages (from Nov 2008 to April 2009) of MDF. Results indicate that the Landsat -8 derived NDVI trajectories describing the phenology variation of MDF during spring, monsoon autumn and winter seasons agreed closely with Landsat-7 and MODIS derived phenology transition from Nov 2008 to April 2009. Furthermore, statistical analysis showed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05) amongst the environmental variables and the NDVIchange between full greenness and maximum frequency stage of Onset of Greenness (OG) activity.. The major change in NDVI was observed in medium (600 to 650 m) and maximum (650 to 750 m) elevation areas. The change in LST showed also to be highly influential. The results of this study can be used for large scale monitoring of difficult-to-reach mountainous forests, with additional implications in biodiversity assessment. By means of a sufficient amount of available cloud-free imagery, detailed phenological trends across mountainous

Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-01-01

Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland).

PubMed

Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-01-01

Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

2017-06-01

The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (<15, 15-64, and ≥65 years). The results showed that the expected decrease in monthly influenza cases was 19.3% (95% credible interval [CI], 14.7%-23.4%), 16.3% (95% CI, 13.6%-19.0%), and 8.5% (95% CI, 1.5%-15.0%) for a 1°C increase in monthly MIT at <15, 15-64, and ≥65 years of age, respectively, while the average increase in the monthly influenza cases was 14.6% (95% CI, 9.0%-21.0%), 12.1% (95% CI, 8.8%-16.1%), and 9.2% (95% CI, 1.4%-16.9%) for a 1-hPa increase in vapor pressure. Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

Flexible Strategies for Coping with Rainfall Variability: Seasonal Adjustments in Cropped Area in the Ganges Basin

PubMed Central

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul E. V.; van Ierland, Ekko C.; Kabat, Pavel; Hellegers, Petra J. G. J.

2016-01-01

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999–2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions. PMID:26934389

Seasonal variation of fine- and coarse-mode nitrates and related aerosols over East Asia: synergetic observations and chemical transport model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Osada, Kazuo; Yumimoto, Keiya; Wang, Zhe; Itahashi, Syuichi; Pan, Xiaole; Hara, Yukari; Kanaya, Yugo; Yamamoto, Shigekazu; Fairlie, Thomas Duncan

2017-11-01

We analyzed long-term fine- and coarse-mode synergetic observations of nitrate and related aerosols (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, Na+, Ca2+) at Fukuoka (33.52° N, 130.47° E) from August 2014 to October 2015. A Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) including dust and sea salt acid uptake processes was used to assess the observed seasonal variation and the impact of long-range transport (LRT) from the Asian continent. For fine aerosols (fSO42-, fNO3-, and fNH4+), numerical results explained the seasonal changes, and a sensitivity analysis excluding Japanese domestic emissions clarified the LRT fraction at Fukuoka (85 % for fSO42-, 47 % for fNO3-, 73 % for fNH4+). Observational data confirmed that coarse NO3- (cNO3-) made up the largest proportion (i.e., 40-55 %) of the total nitrate (defined as the sum of fNO3-, cNO3-, and HNO3) during the winter, while HNO3 gas constituted approximately 40 % of the total nitrate in summer and fNO3- peaked during the winter. Large-scale dust-nitrate (mainly cNO3-) outflow from China to Fukuoka was confirmed during all dust events that occurred between January and June. The modeled cNO3- was in good agreement with observations between July and November (mainly coming from sea salt NO3-). During the winter, however, the model underestimated cNO3- levels compared to the observed levels. The reason for this underestimation was examined statistically using multiple regression analysis (MRA). We used cNa+, nss-cCa2+, and cNH4+ as independent variables to describe the observed cNO3- levels; these variables were considered representative of sea salt cNO3-, dust cNO3-, and cNO3- accompanied by cNH4+), respectively. The MRA results explained the observed seasonal changes in dust cNO3- and indicated that the dust-acid uptake scheme reproduced the observed dust-nitrate levels even in winter. The annual average contributions of each component were 43 % (sea salt cNO3-), 19 % (dust cNO3-), and 38 % (cNH4+ term). The MRA dust

Change and Variability in East Antarctic Sea Ice Seasonality, 1979/80–2009/10

PubMed Central

Massom, Robert; Reid, Philip; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Raymond, Ben; Fraser, Alexander; Ushio, Shuki

2013-01-01

Recent analyses have shown that significant changes have occurred in patterns of sea ice seasonality in West Antarctica since 1979, with wide-ranging climatic, biological and biogeochemical consequences. Here, we provide the first detailed report on long-term change and variability in annual timings of sea ice advance, retreat and resultant ice season duration in East Antarctica. These were calculated from satellite-derived ice concentration data for the period 1979/80 to 2009/10. The pattern of change in sea ice seasonality off East Antarctica comprises mixed signals on regional to local scales, with pockets of strongly positive and negative trends occurring in near juxtaposition in certain regions e.g., Prydz Bay. This pattern strongly reflects change and variability in different elements of the marine “icescape”, including fast ice, polynyas and the marginal ice zone. A trend towards shorter sea-ice duration (of 1 to 3 days per annum) occurs in fairly isolated pockets in the outer pack from∼95–110°E, and in various near-coastal areas that include an area of particularly strong and persistent change near Australia's Davis Station and between the Amery and West Ice Shelves. These areas are largely associated with coastal polynyas that are important as sites of enhanced sea ice production/melt. Areas of positive trend in ice season duration are more extensive, and include an extensive zone from 160–170°E (i.e., the western Ross Sea sector) and the near-coastal zone between 40–100°E. The East Antarctic pattern is considerably more complex than the well-documented trends in West Antarctica e.g., in the Antarctic Peninsula-Bellingshausen Sea and western Ross Sea sectors. PMID:23705008

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed Central

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-01-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters. Images PMID:1061166

Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

2013-10-01

The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

Endocrinology of year-round reproduction in a highly seasonal habitat: environmental variability in testosterone and glucocorticoids in baboon males

PubMed Central

Gesquiere, Laurence R.; Onyango, Patrick O.; Alberts, Susan C.; Altmann, Jeanne

2010-01-01

In conditions characterized by energetic constraints, such as in periods of low food availability, some trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance may be necessary; even year-round breeders may then be forced to exhibit some reproductive seasonality. Prior research has largely focused on female reproduction and physiology, and few studies have evaluated the impact of environmental factors on males. Here we assessed the effects of season and ambient temperatures on fecal glucocorticoid (fGC) and testosterone (fT) levels in male baboons in Amboseli, Kenya. The Amboseli basin is a highly challenging, semi-arid tropical habitat that is characterized by strongly seasonal patterns of rainfall and by high ambient temperatures. We previously reported that female baboons were impacted by these challenging environmental conditions. We ask here whether male baboons in the same environment and groups as females exhibit similar physiological effects. We found that after accounting for male age and individual variability, males exhibited higher fGC levels and lower fT levels during the dry season than during the wet season. Furthermore, fT but not fGC levels were lower in months of high average daily maximum temperatures, suggesting a direct impact of heat on testes. Our results demonstrate that male baboons, like females, experience ecological stress that alters their reproductive physiology. The impact of the environment on male reproduction deserves more attention both in its own right and because alteration in male physiology may contribute to the reduction in female fertility observed in challenging environments. PMID:20721938

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Large-scale vertical velocity, diabatic heating and drying profiles associated with seasonal and diurnal variations of convective systems observed in the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Yunyan; ...

2016-11-16

This study describes the characteristics of large-scale vertical velocity, apparent heating source ( Q 1) and apparent moisture sink ( Q 2) profiles associated with seasonal and diurnal variations of convective systems observed during the two intensive operational periods (IOPs) that were conducted from 15 February to 26 March 2014 (wet season) and from 1 September to 10 October 2014 (dry season) near Manaus, Brazil, during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment. The derived large-scale fields have large diurnal variations according to convective activity in the GoAmazon region and the morning profiles show distinct differences between the dry and wetmore » seasons. In the wet season, propagating convective systems originating far from the GoAmazon region are often seen in the early morning, while in the dry season they are rarely observed. Afternoon convective systems due to solar heating are frequently seen in both seasons. Accordingly, in the morning, there is strong upward motion and associated heating and drying throughout the entire troposphere in the wet season, which is limited to lower levels in the dry season. In the afternoon, both seasons exhibit weak heating and strong moistening in the boundary layer related to the vertical convergence of eddy fluxes. Here, a set of case studies of three typical types of convective systems occurring in Amazonia – i.e., locally occurring systems, coastal-occurring systems and basin-occurring systems – is also conducted to investigate the variability of the large-scale environment with different types of convective systems.« less

Large-scale vertical velocity, diabatic heating and drying profiles associated with seasonal and diurnal variations of convective systems observed in the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Yunyan

2016-01-01

This study describes the characteristics of large-scale vertical velocity, apparent heating source ( Q 1) and apparent moisture sink ( Q 2) profiles associated with seasonal and diurnal variations of convective systems observed during the two intensive operational periods (IOPs) that were conducted from 15 February to 26 March 2014 (wet season) and from 1 September to 10 October 2014 (dry season) near Manaus, Brazil, during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment. The derived large-scale fields have large diurnal variations according to convective activity in the GoAmazon region and the morning profiles show distinct differences between the dry and wetmore » seasons. In the wet season, propagating convective systems originating far from the GoAmazon region are often seen in the early morning, while in the dry season they are rarely observed. Afternoon convective systems due to solar heating are frequently seen in both seasons. Accordingly, in the morning, there is strong upward motion and associated heating and drying throughout the entire troposphere in the wet season, which is limited to lower levels in the dry season. In the afternoon, both seasons exhibit weak heating and strong moistening in the boundary layer related to the vertical convergence of eddy fluxes. A set of case studies of three typical types of convective systems occurring in Amazonia – i.e., locally occurring systems, coastal-occurring systems and basin-occurring systems – is also conducted to investigate the variability of the large-scale environment with different types of convective systems.« less

Generation of a Realistic Soil Moisture Initialization System and its Potential Impact on Short-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Near Surface Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisserie, M.; Cocke, S.; O'Brien, J. J.

2009-12-01

Although the amount of water contained in the soil seems insignificant when compared to the total amount of water on a global-scale, soil moisture is widely recognized as a crucial variable for climate studies. It plays a key role in regulating the interaction between the atmosphere and the land-surface by controlling the repartition between the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. In addition, the persistence of soil moisture anomalies provides one of the most important components of memory for the climate system. Several studies have shown that, during the boreal summer in mid-latitudes, the soil moisture role in controlling the continental precipitation variability may be more important than that of the sea surface temperature (Koster et al. 2000, Hong and Kalnay 2000, Koster et al. 2000, Kumar and Hoerling 1995, Trenberth et al. 1998, Shukla 1998). Although all of the above studies have demonstrated the strong sensitivity of seasonal forecasts to the soil moisture initial conditions, they relied on extreme or idealized soil moisture levels. The question of whether realistic soil moisture initial conditions lead to improved seasonal predictions has not been adequately addressed. Progress in addressing this question has been hampered by the lack of long-term reliable observation-based global soil moisture data sets. Since precipitation strongly affects the soil moisture characteristics at the surface and in depth, an alternative to this issue is to assimilate precipitation. Because precipitation is a diagnostic variable, most of the current reanalyses do not directly assimilate it into their models (M. Bosilovitch, 2008). In this study, an effective technique that directly assimilates the precipitation is used. We examine two experiments. In the first experiment, the model is initialized by directly assimilating a global, 3-hourly, 1.0° precipitation dataset, provided by Sheffield et al. (2006), in a continuous assimilation period of a couple of months. For

Mercury's Seasonal Sodium Exosphere: MESSENGER Orbital Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassidy, Timothy A.; Merkel, Aimee W.; Burger, Matthew H.; Killen, Rosemary M.; McClintock, William E.; Vervack, Ronald J., Jr.; Sarantos, Menelaos

2014-01-01

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft now orbiting Mercury provides the first close-up look at the planet's sodium exosphere. UVVS has observed the exosphere from orbit almost daily for over 10 Mercury years. In this paper we describe and analyze a subset of these data: altitude profiles taken above the low-latitude dayside and south pole. The observations show spatial and temporal variations, but there are no obvious year-to-year variations in most of the observations. We do not see the episodic variability reported by some ground-based observers. We used these altitude profiles to make estimates of sodium density and temperature. The bulk of the exosphere, at about 1200 K, is much warmer than Mercury's surface. This value is consistent with some ground-based measurements and suggests that photon-stimulated desorption is the primary ejection process. We also observe a tenuous energetic component but do not see evidence of the predicted thermalized (or partially thermalized) sodium near Mercury's surface temperature. Overall we do not see the variable mixture of temperatures predicted by most Monte Carlo models of the exosphere.

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui; Suarez, Max

1999-01-01

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

2013-10-01

The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

Comparison of OMI NO2 Observations and Their Seasonal and Weekly Cycles with Ground-Based Measurements in Helsinki

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ialongo, Iolanda; Herman, Jay; Krotkov, Nick; Lamsal, Lok; Boersma, Folkert; Hovila, Jari; Tamminen, Johanna

2016-01-01

We present the comparison of satellite-based OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 products with ground-based observations in Helsinki. OMI NO2 total columns, available from standard product (SP) and DOMINO algorithm, are compared with the measurements performed by the Pandora spectrometer in Helsinki in 2012. The relative difference between Pandora 21 and OMI SP retrievals is 4 and 6 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. DOMINO NO2 retrievals showed slightly lower total columns with median differences about 5 and 14 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. Large differences often correspond to cloudy autumn-winter days with solar zenith angles above 65. Nevertheless, the differences remain within the retrieval uncertainties. Furthermore, the weekly and seasonal cycles from OMI, Pandora and NO2 surface concentrations are compared. Both satellite- and ground-based data show a similar weekly cycle, with lower NO2 levels during the weekend compared to the weekdays as result of reduced emissions from traffic and industrial activities. Also the seasonal cycle shows a similar behavior, even though the results are affected by the fact that most of the data are available during spring-summer because of cloud cover in other seasons. This is one of few works in which OMI NO2 retrievals are evaluated in an urban site at high latitudes (60N). Despite the city of Helsinki having relatively small pollution sources, OMI retrievals have proved to be able to describe air quality features and variability similar to surface observations. This adds confidence in using satellite observations for air quality monitoring also at high latitudes.

Analysis of observed surface ozone in the dry season over Eastern Thailand during 1997-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assareh, Nosha; Prabamroong, Thayukorn; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Theramongkol, Phunsak; Leungsakul, Sirakarn; Mitrjit, Nawarat; Rachiwong, Jintarat

2016-09-01

This study analyzed observed surface ozone (O3) in the dry season over a long-term period of 1997-2012 for the eastern region of Thailand and incorporated several technical tools or methods in investigating different aspects of O3. The focus was the urbanized and industrialized coastal areas recently recognized as most O3-polluted areas. It was found that O3 is intensified most in the dry-season months when meteorological conditions are favorable to O3 development. The diurnal variations of O3 and its precursors show the general patterns of urban background. From observational O3 isopleth diagrams and morning ratios of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), the chemical regime of O3 formation was identified as VOC-sensitive, and the degree of VOC sensitivity tends to increase over the years, suggesting emission control on VOC to be suitable for O3 management. Both total oxidant analysis and back-trajectory modeling (together with K-means clustering) indicate the potential role of regional transport or influence in enhancing surface O3 level over the study areas. A meteorological adjustment with generalized linear modeling was performed to statistically exclude meteorological effects on the variability of O3. Local air-mass recirculation factor was included in the modeling to support the coastal application. The derived trends in O3 based on the meteorological adjustment were found to be significantly positive using a Mann-Kendall test with block bootstrapping.

Mercury's Seasonal Sodium Exosphere: MESSENGER Orbital Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassidy, Timothy A.; Merkel, Aimee W.; Burger, Matthew H.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Killen, Rosemary M.; McClintock, William E.; Vervack, Ronald J., Jr.

2014-01-01

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft now orbiting Mercury provides the first close-up look at the planet's sodium exosphere. UVVS has observed the exosphere from orbit almost daily for over 10 Mercury years. In this paper we describe and analyze a subset of these data: altitude profiles taken above the low-latitude dayside and south pole. The observations show spatial and temporal variation but there is little or no year-to-year variation; we do not see the episodic variability reported by ground-based observers. We used these altitude profiles to make estimates of sodium density and temperature. The bulk of the exosphere is about 1200 K, much warmer than Mercury's surface. This value is consistent with some ground-based measurements and suggests that photon-stimulated desorption is the primary ejection process. We also observe a tenuous energetic component but do not see evidence of the predicted thermalized (or partially thermalized) sodium near Mercury's surface temperature. Overall we do not see the variable mixture of temperatures predicted by most Monte Carlo models of the exosphere.

Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-04-01

Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

2018-01-01

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Spatial and Seasonal Variability of Temperature in CO2 Emission from Mars' Mesosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livengood, Timothy A.; Kostiuk, Theodor; Hewagama, Tilak; Kolasinski, John R.; Henning, Wade; Fast, Kelly Elizabeth; Sonnabend, Guido; Sornig, Manuela

2017-10-01

We have observed non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) emission of carbon dioxide that probes Mars’ mesosphere in 2001, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2014, and 2016. These measurements were conducted at 10.6 μm wavelength using the Goddard Space Flight Center Heterodyne Instrument for Planetary Winds and Composition (HIPWAC) from the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) at resolving power (1-33)×106. The Maxwellian broadening of the emission line can be measured at this resolution, providing a direct determination of temperature in the mesosphere. The nonLTE line appears as a narrow emission core within a broad absorption formed by tropospheric CO2, which provides temperature information reaching down to the martian surface, while the mesospheric line probes temperature at about 60-80 km altitude. We will report on the spatial distribution of temperature and emission line strength with local solar time on Mars, with latitude, as well as long-term variability including seasonal effects that modify the overall thermal structure of the atmosphere. These remote measurements complement results from orbital spacecraft through access to a broad range of local solar time on each occasion.This work has been supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy and Solar Systems Observations Programs

Seasonal Variability in Calorimetric Energy Content of Two Caribbean Mesophotic Corals

PubMed Central

Brandtneris, Viktor W.; Brandt, Marilyn E.; Glynn, Peter W.; Gyory, Joanna; Smith, Tyler B.

2016-01-01

Energetic responses of zooxanthellate reef corals along depth gradients have relevance to the refugia potential of mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs). Previous observations suggested that MCEs in the Caribbean are thermally buffered during the warmest parts of the year and occur within or just below the chlorophyll maximum, suggesting abundant trophic resources. However, it is not known if mesophotic corals can maintain constant energy needs throughout the year with changing environmental and biological conditions. The energetic content of tissues from the stony coral species Orbicella faveolata and Agaricia lamarcki was measured on the southern insular shelf of St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands (USVI), using micro-bomb calorimetry. Three sites for each species, at depths of 6m, 25m, 38m and 63m, were selected to capture energetic differences across the major vertical range extent of both species in the USVI—and sampled over five periods from April 2013 to April 2014. Mesophotic colonies of O. faveolata exhibited a significant reduction in energetic content during the month of September 2013 compared to mid-depth and shallow colonies (p = 0.032), whereas A. lamarcki experienced similar energetic variability, but with a significant reduction in energy content that occurred in July 2013 for colonies at sites deeper than 25m (p = 0.014). The results of calorimetric analyses indicate that O. faveolata may be at risk during late summer stress events, possibly due to the timing of reproductive activities. The low-point of A. lamarcki energy content, which may also coincide with reproduction, occurs prior to seasonal stress events, indicating contrasting, species-specific responses to environmental variability on MCEs. PMID:27050430

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-12-01

Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

Variability and Change in Seasonal Water Storage in the Major Arctic Draining Eurasian River Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.

2015-12-01

Variability and change in seasonal water storage in the major Arctic-draining watersheds of Eurasia (Ob. Yenisei and Lena) are assessed in several ways using a combination of storage estimates from the NASA GRACE satellite system, gauged runoff and output from the NASA MERRA atmospheric reanalysis. The study is motivated by the pronounced environmental changes observed in the northern high latitudes and recognition of the climatic importance of changes in hydrology both within and beyond the region. Monthly storage changes based on GRACE gravimetric measurements (2002-2015) and from a water balance approach for the same period calculating storage changes as a residual using gauged runoff along with aerologically-determined net precipitation (atmospheric vapor flux convergence minus the time change in atmospheric precipitable water) from MERRA are generally in good agreement. Agreement is also good for calculations in which aerologically-determined net precipitation is replaced with the MERRA forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration. On average, the storage in each of the three watersheds examined (the Ob, Yenisei and Lena) peaks in March and is at a minimum in September. However, this seasonal cycle, primarily driven by snowpack storage through autumn and winter, and snowmelt through spring and summer, varies considerably from year to year in amplitude, phase and between the three watersheds in response to variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and near surface air temperature. As assessed over the longer period 1979-2015 covered by MERRA, there is evidence that in response to rising air temperatures influencing precipitation phase and snow storage, peak storage has shifted to earlier in the winter. While recent work provides evidence for a link between increased autumn snowfall over Eurasia and reduced autumn sea ice extent that provides for a moisture source, the effect of increased snowfall is not clearly apparent in water storage.

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-10-01

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pingree-Shippee, K. A.; Zwiers, F. W.; Atkinson, D. E.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) often produce extreme hazardous weather conditions, such as high winds, blizzard conditions, heavy precipitation, and flooding, all of which can have detrimental socio-economic impacts. The North American east and west coastal regions are both strongly influenced by ETCs and, subsequently, land-based, coastal, and maritime economic sectors in Canada and the USA all experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity from time to time. Society would benefit if risks associated with ETCs and storm activity variability could be reliably predicted for the upcoming season. Skillful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to storm activity variability and the associated risks and impacts. In this study, the potential predictability of seasonal variations in extratropical storm activity is investigated using analysis of variance to provide quantitative and geographical observational evidence indicative of whether it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large-scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed. Seasonal potential predictability and its origins are investigated for the cold seasons (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM) during the 1979-2015 time period using daily mean sea level pressure, absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as proxies for extratropical storm activity. Results indicate potential predictability of seasonal variations in storm activity in areas strongly influenced by ETCs and with origins in the investigated teleconnections. For instance, the North Pacific storm track has considerable potential predictability and with notable origins in the SO and PDO.

Seasonal and spatial changes in trace gases over megacities from Aura TES observations: two case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cady-Pereira, Karen E.; Payne, Vivienne H.; Neu, Jessica L.; Bowman, Kevin W.; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Marais, Eloise A.; Kulawik, Susan; Tzompa-Sosa, Zitely A.; Hegarty, Jennifer D.

2017-08-01

The Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) is collecting closely spaced observations over 19 megacities. The objective is to obtain measurements that will lead to better understanding of the processes affecting air quality in and around these cities, and to better estimates of the seasonal and interannual variability. We explore the TES measurements of ozone, ammonia, methanol and formic acid collected around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) and in the vicinity of Lagos (Nigeria). The TES data exhibit seasonal signals that are correlated with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD), with in situ measurements in the MCMA and with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem model output in the Lagos area. TES was able to detect an extreme pollution event in the MCMA on 9 April 2013, which is also evident in the in situ data. TES data also show that biomass burning has a greater impact south of the city than in the caldera where Mexico City is located. TES measured enhanced values of the four species over the Gulf of Guinea south of Lagos. Since it observes many cities from the same platform with the same instrument and applies the same retrieval algorithms, TES data provide a very useful tool for easily comparing air quality measures of two or more cities. We compare the data from the MCMA and Lagos, and show that, while the MCMA has occasional extreme pollution events, Lagos consistently has higher levels of these trace gases.

Hydrologic impacts of land cover variability and change at seasonal to decadal time scales over North America, 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Land cover variability and change have been shown to influence the terrestrial hydrologic cycle by altering the partitioning of moisture and energy fluxes. However, the magnitude and directionality of the relationship between land cover and surface hydrology has been shown to vary substantially across regions. Here, we provide an assessment of the impacts of land cover change on hydrologic processes at seasonal (vegetation phenology) to decadal scales (land cover conversion) in the United States and Mexico. To this end, we combine time series of remotely-sensed land surface characteristics with land cover maps for different decades as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Land surface characteristics (leaf area index, surface albedo, and canopy fraction derived from normalized difference vegetation index) were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at 8-day intervals over the period 2000-2016. Land cover maps representing conditions in 1992, 2001, and 2011 were derived by homogenizing the National Land Cover Database over the US and the INEGI Series I through V maps over Mexico. An additional map covering all of North America was derived from the most frequent land cover class observed in each pixel of the MODIS MOD12Q1 product during 2001-2013. Land surface characteristics were summarized over land cover fractions at 1/16 degree (6 km) resolution. For each land cover map, hydrologic simulations were conducted that covered the period 1980-2013, using the best-available, hourly meteorological forcings at a similar spatial resolution. Based on these simulations, we present a comparison of the contributions of land cover change and climate variability at seasonal to decadal scales on the hydrologic and energy budgets, identifying the dominant components through time and space. This work also offers a valuable dataset on land cover variability and its hydrologic response for continental-scale assessments and modeling.

Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Shao, Quanxi; Hao, Jie; Nyima, Tsring

2018-02-01

Precipitation plays an important role in both environment and human society and is a significant factor in many scientific researches such as water resources, agriculture and climate impact studies. The onset and retreat of rainy season are useful features to understand the variability of precipitation under the influence of climate change. In this study, the characteristics of onset and retreat in mainland China are investigated. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine rainy season and K-means cluster analysis was used to divide China into sub-regions to better investigate rainy season features. The possible linkage of changing characteristics of onset and retreat to climate factors were also explored. Results show that: (1) the onset started from middle March in the southeast of China to early June in the northwest and rainy season ended earliest in the northwest and southeast while the central China had the latest retreat; (2) Delayed onset and advanced retreat over time were observed in many parts of China, together with overall stable or increased rainy-season precipitation, would likely lead to higher probability of flooding; (3) The onset (retreat) was associated with the increased (decreased) number of cyclones in eastern China and anticyclone near the South China Sea. Delayed onset, and advanced retreat were likely related to cold and warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the conventional El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, respectively. These results suggest that predictability of rainy season can be improved through the atmospheric circulation and SST, and help water resources management and agricultural planning.

A study on the seasonal variability of upwelling and its effects on physical parameters in Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Rohit Kumar; Shaji, Chithra; Ojha, Satya P.; Kumar, Pankaj

2017-04-01

The upwelling in Arabian Sea is an important phenomenon, mainly occurring along the southwest coast of India during summer monsoon, which increases the biological productivity in the region. The south west coast of Arabian sea region accounts for about 53% of fish yield of the total fish production in Arabian Sea, thus it is imperative to study and understand the process of upwelling in this region. To study the upwelling features in southwest coast of India, monthly Ekman mass transport is estimated using analyzed wind and derived products from Oceansat-II scatterometer data. Seasonal variability of Ekman mass transport has been analyzed to study the occurrences of coastal upwelling in this region. Results show prominent region of upwelling along southwest coast of India is between 7° and 15° N. Transport estimate demonstrate that the strong offshore Ekman mass transport, as high as -2000 kg/m/s, was observed during summer monsoon months due to favorable wind conditions. Very weak offshore transport, as low as -200 kg/m/s, was observed during pre-monsoon months as winds were weak and spatially variable. Moderate offshore transport, up to -750 kg/m/s, was observed during winter monsoon months. The upwelling associated ocean surface features such as Sea-surface temperature (SST, from AVHRR), chlorophyll concentration (AQUA-MODIS), wind stress curl derived from Oceansat-II and sea surface salinity (SSS, from Aquarius) were examined to demonstrate the spatial and temporal evolution of upwelling in this region. With the advancement of the summer monsoon and upwelling, the monthly mean SST range reaches up to 26-27°C (August - September) from about 29-30°C (April - May). The monthly mean Chlorophyll concentration reaches up to 25-30 mg/m3 (August-September) from 0.1-0.2 mg/m3 (January-February). The monthly SSS which was observed to be about 34 psu (December 2102- January 2013) reaches to 36.5 psu (August-September). Analysis of SST from different sources suggests

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Land Cover and Seasonality Effects on Biomass Burning Emissions and Air Quality Impacts Observed from Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoogman, P.; Hoffman, A.; Gonzalez Abad, G.; Miller, C. E.; Nowlan, C. R.; Huang, G.; Liu, X.; Chance, K.

2016-12-01

Trace gas emissions from biomass burning can vary greatly both regionally and from event to event, but our current scientific understanding is unable to fully explain this variability. The large uncertainty in ozone formation resulting from fire emissions has posed a great challenge for assessing fire impacts on air quality and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations from OMI offer a powerful tool to observe biomass burning events by providing observations globally over a range of environmental conditions that effect emissions of NOx, formaldehyde, and glyoxal. We have investigated the seasonal relationship of biomass burning enhancements of these trace gases derived from OMI observations over tropical South America, Africa, and Indonesia. Land cover type (also derived from satellite observations) has a significant impact on formaldehyde and glyoxal enhancements from fire activity. We have found that the chemical ratio between formaldehyde and glyoxal is dependent on the burned land type and will present our current hypotheses for the spatial variation of this ratio in the tropics. Furthermore, in individual case studies we will investigate how these chemical ratios can inform our knowledge of the secondary formation of ozone, particularly during exceptional pollution events.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

PubMed

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

2008-04-27

The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

Heavy metals seasonal variability and distribution in Lake Qaroun sediments, El-Fayoum, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redwan, Mostafa; Elhaddad, Engy

2017-10-01

This study was carried out to investigate the seasonal variability and distribution of heavy metals ;HMs; (Fe, Mn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and V) in the bottom sediments of Lake Qaroun, in Egypt. The samples were collected from 10 sites in summer and winter seasons in 2015. Total metals concentrations were measured using inductively coupled plasma spectrometer. Multivariate techniques were applied to analyse the distribution and potential source of heavy metals. The mean seasonal concentrations follow a descending order of Fe > Mn > V > Zn > Cr > Ni > Cu > Co > Pb. The mean concentrations of HMs in sediments during summer were higher than the concentrations during winter and above the average world shale values, except for Pb, suggesting potential adverse toxicity to aquatic organisms. All metals showed enrichment during summer and winter at sites S3 and S5 in the southeastern parts of the lake due to the heavy discharge of contaminants from El-Bats and El-Wadi drains. Principal component analysis results suggested two principal components controlling HMs variability in sediments, which accounted for 63.9% (factor 1: Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and V), 15.9% (factor 2: Mn and Fe) during summer, and 76.7% (factor 1: Fe, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and V), 13.8% (factor 2: Mn) during winter of the total variance. Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) showed some pollution risk at the southeastern and southern parts (sites S3 and S5). Dilution during winter, concentration during summer, impact of non-point sources from different agricultural, industrial, municipal sewage and fish farms in the southern part of Lake Qaroun, adsorption and salt dissolution reactions and lithogenic sources are the main controlling factors for HMs in the study area. Monitoring of contaminant discharge at Lake Qaroun should be introduced for future remediation and management strategies.

Quantifying seasonal velocity at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, E.; Quincey, D. J.; Miles, K.; Hubbard, B. P.; Rowan, A. V.

2017-12-01

While the low-gradient debris-covered tongues of many Himalayan glaciers exhibit low surface velocities, quantifying ice flow and its variation through time remains a key challenge for studies aimed at determining the long-term evolution of these glaciers. Recent work has suggested that glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal may show seasonal variability in surface velocity, with ice flow peaking during the summer as monsoon precipitation provides hydrological inputs and thus drives changes in subglacial drainage efficiency. However, satellite and aerial observations of glacier velocity during the monsoon are greatly limited due to cloud cover. Those that do exist do not span the period over which the most dynamic changes occur, and consequently short-term (i.e. daily) changes in flow, as well as the evolution of ice dynamics through the monsoon period, remain poorly understood. In this study, we combine field and remote (satellite image) observations to create a multi-temporal, 3D synthesis of ice deformation rates at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, focused on the 2017 monsoon period. We first determine net annual and seasonal surface displacements for the whole glacier based on Landsat-8 (OLI) panchromatic data (15m) processed with ImGRAFT. We integrate inclinometer observations from three boreholes drilled by the EverDrill project to determine cumulative deformation at depth, providing a 3D perspective and enabling us to assess the role of basal sliding at each site. We additionally analyze high-frequency on-glacier L1 GNSS data from three sites to characterize variability within surface deformation at sub-seasonal timescales. Finally, each dataset is validated against repeat-dGPS observations at gridded points in the vicinity of the boreholes and GNSS dataloggers. These datasets complement one another to infer thermal regime across the debris-covered ablation area of the glacier, and emphasize the seasonal and spatial variability of ice deformation for glaciers in High

Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.; Jassby, A.D.

2008-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO 2, water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability. The data revealed a broad continuum of seasonal patterns, with large variability across and within ecosystems. This contrasts with annual cycles of terrestrial and oceanic primary producers for which seasonal fluctuations are recurrent and synchronous over large geographic regions. This finding bears on two fundamental ecological questions: (1) how do estuarine and coastal consumers adapt to an irregular and unpredictable food supply, and (2) how can we extract signals of climate change from phytoplankton observations in coastal ecosystems where local-scale processes can mask responses to changing climate? ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from satellite gravity, radar altimetry, and in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David A.; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-08-01

Seasonal variations of sea surface height (SSH) and mass within the Red Sea are caused mostly by exchange of heat with the atmosphere and by flow through the strait opening into the Gulf of Aden to the south. That flow involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during fall and out during spring, though in summer there is an influx of cool water at intermediate depths. Thus, summer water in the south is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths. Summer water in the north experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature affects water density, which impacts SSH but has no effect on mass. We study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE mass estimates, altimeter SSH measurements, and steric contributions derived from the World Ocean Atlas temperature climatology. Among our conclusions are: mass contributions are much larger than steric contributions; the mass is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea in fall and out during spring; the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with surface warming; and the cool, intermediate-depth water flowing into the Red Sea in spring has little impact on the steric signal, because contributions from the lowered temperature are offset by effects of decreased salinity. The results suggest that the combined use of altimeter and GRACE measurements can provide a useful alternative to in situ data for monitoring the steric signal.

Influence of seasonal climatic variability on shallow infiltration at Yucca Mountain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hevesi, Joseph A.; Flint, Alan L.

1993-01-01

To analyze infiltration and the redistribution of moisture in alluvial deposits at Yucca Mountain, water content profiles at a 13.5 m deep borehole were measured at monthly intervals using a neutron moisture probe. Increases in water content to a maximum depth of 1.8 m in response to winter season precipitation were noted. Below a depth of 1.8 m, a gradual drying trend was indicated. A simulation study showed that, although small amounts of water may be percolating through the deep nonwetted ones of the profile, the influence of climatic variability on infiltration through thick alluvial deposits at Yucca Mountain is greatly mitigated by evapotranspiration.

Observed Hydrographic Variability Connecting the Continental Shelf to the Marine-Terminating Glaciers of Uummannaq Bay, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, D.; de Steur, L.; Nash, J. D.; Shroyer, E.; Mickett, J.

2016-02-01

Large-scale changes in ocean forcing, such as increased upper ocean heat content or variations in subpolar gyre circulation, are commonly implicated as factors causing the widespread retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers. A recent surge in observational and modeling studies has shown how temperature increases and a changing subglacial discharge determine melt rates at glacier termini, driving a vigorous buoyancy-driven circulation. However, we still lack knowledge of what controls ambient water properties in the fjords themselves, i.e., how does the subpolar gyre communicate across the continental shelf towards the glacier termini. Here, we present a two-year mooring record of hydrographic variability in the Uummannaq Bay region of west Greenland. We focus on observations inside Rink Isbræ and Kangerlussuup Sermia fjords coupled with an outer mooring located in the submarine trough cutting across the shelf. We show how water properties vary seasonally inside the fjords and how they connect to variability in the trough. The two fjords exhibit large differences in temperature and salinity variability, which is possibly due to differences in the plume circulation driven by the glaciers themselves. We put these limited observations in temporal context by comparing them with observations from the nearby Davis Strait time array, and spatial context by comparing them with recent mooring records from Sermilik Fjord in southeast Greenland.

Detecting seasonal flood changes in the Upper Danube River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Jeneiová, Katarína; Parajka, Juraj; Hall, Julia; Marková, Romana

2017-04-01

Due to a number of large-scale floods observed worldwide in recent years, the analysis of changes in long-term hydrological time series is becoming increasingly important. This study focuses on the Upper Danube region, which was struck by many flood events in the past decade. The flood seasonality of the study region, defined as the area of Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria and Slovakia, is examined to interpret the dominant flood processes. A spatial assessment of the seasonality indices of the annual maximum discharges and the seasonal discharges (derived from daily average discharges) was conducted for 117 gauging stations. Hot spots for potential changes in the mean dates of occurrence of the discharges were identified, and the results were linked with derived spatial characteristics for the catchments. The first results of the study of the seasonal discharges revealed that the variability of occurrence of summer floods is higher than winter floods in lowlands of the upper Danube catchment. In high Alpine catchments the winter floods variability of occurrence is the same or higher than for the summer floods. The summer season floods tend to appear for all catchment sizes in the same time period. With increased magnitude of floods in the summer season, the variability of occurrence of the floods is higher.

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

Light-driven growth in Amazon evergreen forests explained by seasonal variations of vertical canopy structure.

PubMed

Tang, Hao; Dubayah, Ralph

2017-03-07

Light-regime variability is an important limiting factor constraining tree growth in tropical forests. However, there is considerable debate about whether radiation-induced green-up during the dry season is real, or an apparent artifact of the remote-sensing techniques used to infer seasonal changes in canopy leaf area. Direct and widespread observations of vertical canopy structures that drive radiation regimes have been largely absent. Here we analyze seasonal dynamic patterns between the canopy and understory layers in Amazon evergreen forests using observations of vertical canopy structure from a spaceborne lidar. We discovered that net leaf flushing of the canopy layer mainly occurs in early dry season, and is followed by net abscission in late dry season that coincides with increasing leaf area of the understory layer. Our observations of understory development from lidar either weakly respond to or are not correlated to seasonal variations in precipitation or insolation, but are strongly related to the seasonal structural dynamics of the canopy layer. We hypothesize that understory growth is driven by increased light gaps caused by seasonal variations of the canopy. This light-regime variability that exists in both spatial and temporal domains can better reveal the drought-induced green-up phenomenon, which appears less obvious when treating the Amazon forests as a whole.

Tidal and seasonal variations in calving flux observed with passive seismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomaus, T.C.; Larsen, Christopher F.; West, Michael E.; O'Neel, Shad; Pettit, Erin C.; Truffer, Martin

2015-01-01

The seismic signatures of calving events, i.e., calving icequakes, offer an opportunity to examine calving variability with greater precision than is available with other methods. Here using observations from Yahtse Glacier, Alaska, we describe methods to detect, locate, and characterize calving icequakes. We combine these icequake records with a coincident, manually generated record of observed calving events to develop and validate a statistical model through which we can infer iceberg sizes from the properties of calving icequakes. We find that the icequake duration is the single most significant predictor of an iceberg's size. We then apply this model to 18 months of seismic recordings and find elevated iceberg calving flux during the summer and fall and a pronounced lull in calving during midwinter. Calving flux is sensitive to semidiurnal tidal stage. Large calving events are tens of percent more likely during falling and low tides than during rising and high tides, consistent with a view that deeper water has a stabilizing influence on glacier termini. Multiple factors affect the occurrence of mechanical fractures that ultimately lead to iceberg calving. At Yahtse Glacier, seismology allows us to demonstrate that variations in the rate of submarine melt are a dominant control on iceberg calving rates at seasonal timescales. On hourly to daily timescales, tidal modulation of the normal stress against the glacier terminus reveals the nonlinear glacier response to changes in the near-terminus stress field.

Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

2016-12-01

The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

Observations of the Seasonal Polar Icecaps of Mars at 1064 nm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuber, Maria T.; Smith, David E.

2003-01-01

The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) is routinely making radiometric observations of Mars at a wavelength of 1064 nm. Although the altimeter function is no longer operational, the MOLA detector continues to measure the reflectivity of the surface. Observations have been obtained almost continuously since the beginning of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mapping mission in February 1999, and are providing measurements relevant to understanding the seasonal cycling of CO2 surface frost.

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.

METHANE AND WATER ON MARS: MAPS OF ACTIVE REGIONS AND THEIR SEASONAL VARIABILITY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, G. L.; Mumma, M. J.; Novak, R. E.

2009-12-01

We have detected methane on Mars, and measured it simultaneously with water using powerful ground-based telescopes [1, 2]. Its presence in such a strongly oxidized atmosphere (CO2: 95.3%) requires recent release; the ultimate origin of this methane is uncertain, but it could either be abiotic or biotic. On Earth, methane is produced primarily by biology, with a small fraction produced by abiotic means. The sources and sinks of hydrogen-bearing species (e.g., H2O and CH4) on Mars are still poorly known. In particular, the roles of the regolith and the sub-surface hydrogen reservoirs in the Martian water cycle have been broadly studied, but have not been conclusively quantified. If water is being released from the sub-surface or shares a common source with other H-bearing species, we might see correlations among them. Previous searches for such correlations have been precluded because of the lack of simultaneity of the measurements and the intrinsic variability of water on Mars, which is a condensable whose total local abundance is partitioned among several competing phases controlled largely by temperature (ensuring its variability on a variety of time scales, from diurnal to seasonal to epochal). We sampled multiple spectral lines of methane and water vapor on Mars in a campaign spanning seven years (three Mars years; 1999-2006) and sampling three seasons on Mars. Data were ac-quired using long-slit infrared spectrometers: CSHELL (Cryogenic Echelle Spectrograph) at NASA-IRTF (Infrared Telescope Facility) and NIRSPEC (Near Infrared Spectrograph) at Keck 2. These instruments offer spatially-resolved spectra with the high spectral resolving power (λ/δλ ~ 40,000) needed to reduce confusion among telluric, Martian, and Fraunhofer lines (in reflected solar radiation). Since 2005, we greatly improved our data processing algorithms and increased the sensitivity of our measurements by an order of magnitude. Using these new techniques, we detected multiple lines of

Drivers, mechanisms and long-term variability of seasonal hypoxia on the Black Sea northwestern shelf - is there any recovery after eutrophication?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

2013-06-01

The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical-biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981-2009), and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication). Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS - which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers - and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the interannual variability

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

2007-01-01

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocas, William M.; Felis, Thomas; Obert, J. Christina; Gierz, Paul; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Denis; Kölling, Martin; Scheffers, Sander R.

2016-09-01

Reconstructions of last interglacial (LIG, MIS 5e, ∼127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. We present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire (Caribbean Netherlands). These have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 120 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) temperature proxy records. In conjunction with a previously published 118 ka coral record, our eight records of up to 37 years in length, cover a total of 105 years within the LIG period. From these, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality and variability in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of ∼2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late LIG (120-118 ka). However, within the mid-LIG, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the LIG, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our LIG coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-LIG is caused primarily by summer warming. A 124 ka old coral documents, for the first time, evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the LIG, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records.

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

An Investigation of the Hydroclimate Variability of Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. A.; Semazzi, F. H. M.

2015-12-01

The flow of the Victoria Nile, and the productivity of the dams along it, is determined by the level of Lake Victoria, which is primarily dictated by the rainfall and temperature variability over the Lake Victoria Basin. Notwithstanding the indisputable decline of water resources over the lake basin during the Long Rains of March - May, there is a strong indication based on IPCC climate projections that this trend, which has persisted for several decades, will reverse in the next few decades. This phenomenon has come to be known as the Eastern-Central African climate change paradox and could have profound implications on sustainable development for the next few decades in Lake Victoria Basin. The purpose of this study is to investigate the climate variability associated with the East African Climate Change Paradox for the recent decades. This research analyzes observations to understand the sources of variability and potential physical mechanisms related to the decline in precipitation over Eastern Africa. We then investigate the hydrological factors involved in the decline of Lake Victoria levels in the context of the decline in rainfall. While East Africa has been experiencing persistent decline of the Long Rains for multiple decades, this same decline is not seen in annual rainfall. The remaining seasons show an increase in rainfall which is compensating for the decline of the Long Rains. It is possible that the Long Rains season is shifting in such a way that the season starts earlier, in February, and ending sooner. The corresponding annual Lake Victoria levels modeled using observed rainfall do not decline in the recent decades, except when the Long Rains seasonal variability is considered without variability from other seasons. This shift could impact hydroelectric power planning on a monthly or seasonal time scale, and could potentially have a large impact on agriculture, since it would shift the growing season in the region.

Phytoplankton biomass and microbial abundances during the spring upwelling season in the coastal area off Concepción, central-southern Chile: Variability around a time series station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, Carmen E.; Anabalón, Valeria

2012-01-01

In the coastal system off Concepción, time series observations at a fixed station (St. 18) have shown strong seasonal changes in the oceanographic environment of the upper layer (<35 m depth), accompanied by large increases in phytoplankton biomass during the spring-summer upwelling season. These blooms, dominated by microplanktonic diatoms, have usually overshadowed the relevance of the smaller microbial components during upwelling. This study focuses on the variability of oceanographic conditions and their association with the structure of the planktonic community (size fractionated chlorophyll-a and microbial abundances) in the upper layer during the upwelling season, examining the extent to which St. 18 is representative of the coastal system off Concepción during springtime. For this purpose, data from three consecutive springs (2004, 2005, 2006) were compared, which included cruises for all years (8 stations around St. 18) as well as monthly sampling at St. 18. Most of the spatial (submesoscale) variability in chlorophyll-a and the microbial components was not significant, but data dispersion around mean values was high. Water column structure (temperature and salinity) in the upper layer explained a significant fraction (25-65%) of the spatial variability in most of the planktonic components; their responses to oceanographic variability were linear in some cases and non-linear in others. For the most part, St. 18 appears to adequately represent mean oceanographic conditions and the structure of planktonic communities in the coastal waters off Concepción during springtime, however spatial variability needs to be taken into account in the interpretations of temporal changes at this fixed station as well as in assessments of carbon flow within, and exportation processes from, this upwelling system.

Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

2017-07-01

The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Isolating the Liquid Cloud Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A. L.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Yettella, V.

2018-01-01

While the radiative influence of clouds on Arctic sea ice is known, the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic clouds is challenging to detect, separate from atmospheric circulation, and attribute to human activities. Providing observational constraints on the two-way relationship between sea ice cover and Arctic clouds is important for predicting the rate of future sea ice loss. Here we use 8 years of CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spaceborne lidar observations from 2008 to 2015 to analyze Arctic cloud profiles over sea ice and over open water. Using a novel surface mask to restrict our analysis to where sea ice concentration varies, we isolate the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic Ocean clouds. The study focuses on clouds containing liquid water because liquid-containing clouds are the most important cloud type for radiative fluxes and therefore for sea ice melt and growth. Summer is the only season with no observed cloud response to sea ice cover variability: liquid cloud profiles are nearly identical over sea ice and over open water. These results suggest that shortwave summer cloud feedbacks do not slow long-term summer sea ice loss. In contrast, more liquid clouds are observed over open water than over sea ice in the winter, spring, and fall in the 8 year mean and in each individual year. Observed fall sea ice loss cannot be explained by natural variability alone, which suggests that observed increases in fall Arctic cloud cover over newly open water are linked to human activities.

Observed and Self-Reported Pesticide Protective Behaviors of Latino Migrant and Seasonal Farmworkers

PubMed Central

Walton, AnnMarie Lee; LePrevost, Catherine; Wong, Bob; Linnan, Laura; Sanchez-Birkhead, Ana; Mooney, Kathi

2016-01-01

Agricultural pesticide exposure has potential adverse health effects for farmworkers that may be reduced by pesticide protective behaviors (PPBs). The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Worker Protection Standard (WPS) requires PPBs be taught to farmworkers prior to field work. Studies to date have not utilized observational methods to evaluate the degree to which PPBs are practiced by Latino migrant and seasonal farmworkers in the United States. The purpose of this study was to describe, compare, and contrast observed and self-reported PPBs used by Latino farmworkers; both PPBs that the WPS requires be taught and other PPBs were included. Observed and self-reported data were collected from 71 Latino farmworkers during the 2014 tobacco growing season in North Carolina. Participants were consistent in reporting and using long pants and closed shoes in the field most of the time. In addition, gloves, hats/bandanas, and water-resistant outerwear were frequently observed, although they are not required to be taught by the WPS. Farmworkers reported more long-sleeve (p = .028) and glove use (p = .000) than what was observed. It was uncommon to observe washing behavior before eating or drinking, even when washing supplies were available. Washing behaviors were significantly overreported for hand (p = .000; (p = .000) and face (p = .000; (p = .058) washing before eating and drinking in the field. This study documents that protective clothing behaviors that the WPS requires be taught, plus a few others are commonly practiced by Latino migrant and seasonal farmworkers, but washing behaviors in the field are not. Targeted strategies to improve washing behaviors in the field are needed. PMID:26918841

Spatio-temporal variability of ichthyophagous bird assemblage around western Mediterranean open-sea cage fish farms.

PubMed

Aguado-Giménez, Felipe; Eguía-Martínez, Sergio; Cerezo-Valverde, Jesús; García-García, Benjamín

2018-06-14

Ichthyophagous birds aggregate at cage fish farms attracted by caged and associated wild fish. Spatio-temporal variability of such birds was studied for a year through seasonal visual counts at eight farms in the western Mediterranean. Correlation with farm and location descriptors was assessed. Considerable spatio-temporal variability in fish-eating bird density and assemblage structure was observed among farms and seasons. Bird density increased from autumn to winter, with the great cormorant being the most abundant species, also accounting largely for differences among farms. Grey heron and little egret were also numerous at certain farms during the coldest seasons. Cattle egret was only observed at one farm. No shags were observed during winter. During spring and summer, bird density decreased markedly and only shags and little egrets were observed at only a few farms. Season and distance from farms to bird breeding/wintering grounds helped to explain some of the spatio-temporal variability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variability of the main components in essential oil of Mentha × piperita L.

PubMed

Grulova, Daniela; De Martino, Laura; Mancini, Emilia; Salamon, Ivan; De Feo, Vincenzo

2015-02-01

Mentha × piperita is an important and commonly used flavoring plant worldwide. Its constituents, primarily menthol and menthone, change in the essential oil depending on internal and external factors, of which environmental conditions appear very important. The experiment was established in 2010 for three vegetation season, in order to observe the quantitative changes of the main components of peppermint. The determination of menthol, menthone, limonene, menthyl acetate, menthofuran and β-caryophyllene was registered. In the experimental season 2011 and 2012 a higher mean temperature than in 2010 and extreme rainfall in July 2011 and 2012 were recorded. Different environmental conditions affected the development of M. × piperita plants and the content and composition of the essential oil. Seasonal and maturity variations are interlinked with each other, because the specific ontogenic growth stage differed as the season progressed. Fluctuations in monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns affected the quality of peppermint essential oil. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

The seasonality and geographic dependence of ENSO impacts on U.S. surface ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Li; Yu, Jin-Yi; Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.

2017-04-01

We examine the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface ozone abundance observed over the continental United States (U.S.) during 1993-2013. The monthly ozone decreases (increases) during El Niño (La Niña) years with amplitude up to 1.8 ppb per standard deviation of Niño 3.4 index. The largest ENSO influences occur over two southern U.S. regions during fall when the ENSO develops and over two western U.S. regions during the winter to spring after the ENSO decays. ENSO affects surface ozone via chemical processes during warm seasons in southern regions, where favorable meteorological conditions occur, but via dynamic transport during cold seasons in western regions, where the ENSO-induced circulation variations are large. The geographic dependence and seasonality of the ENSO impacts imply that regulations regarding air quality and its exceedance need to be adjusted for different seasons and U.S. regions to account for the ENSO-driven patterns in surface ozone.

Comparing the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of atmospheric and surface urban heat islandsbased on the Beijing urban meteorological network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.; Wang, J.; Zhou, C.; Wang, X.; Lee, X.

2017-12-01

This study compared the diurnal and seasonal cycles of atmospheric and surface urban heat islands (UHIs) based on hourly air temperatures (Ta) collected at 65 out of 262 stations in Beijing and land surface temperature (Ts) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer in the years 2013-2014. We found that the nighttime atmospheric and surface UHIs referenced to rural cropland stations exhibited significant seasonal cycles, with the highest in winter. However, the seasonal variations in the nighttime UHIs referenced to mountainous forest stations were negligible, because mountainous forests have a higher nighttime Ts in winter and a lower nighttime T a in summer than rural croplands. Daytime surface UHIs showed strong seasonal cycles, with the highest in summer. The daytime atmospheric UHIs exhibited a similar but less seasonal cycle under clear-sky conditions, which was not apparent under cloudy-sky conditions. Atmospheric UHIs in urban parks were higher in daytime. Nighttime atmospheric UHIs are influenced by energy stored in urban materials during daytime and released during nighttime. The stronger anthropogenic heat release in winter causes atmospheric UHIs to increase with time during winter nights, but decrease with time during summer nights. The percentage of impervious surfaces is responsible for 49%-54% of the nighttime atmospheric UHI variability and 31%-38% of the daytime surface UHI variability. However, the nighttime surface UHI was nearly uncorrelated with the percentage of impervious surfaces around the urban stations.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhanja, Soumendra; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2016-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage in India.

PubMed

Bhanja, Soumendra N; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2017-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent). In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Linking the Observation of Essential Variables to Societal Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylak-Glassman, E.

2017-12-01

Different scientific communities have established sets of commonly agreed upon essential variables to help coordinate data collection in a variety of Earth observation areas. As an example, the World Meteorological Organization Global Climate Observing System has identified 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), such as sea-surface temperature and carbon dioxide, which are required to monitoring the climate and detect and attribute climate change. In addition to supporting climate science, measuring these ECVs deliver many types of societal benefits, ranging from disaster mitigation to agricultural productivity to human health. While communicating the value in maintaining and improving observational records for these variables has been a challenge, quantifying how the measurement of these ECVs results in the delivery of many different societal benefits may help support their continued measurement. The 2016 National Earth Observation Assessment (EOA 2016) quantified the impact of individual Earth observation systems, sensors, networks, and surveys (or Earth observation systems, for short) on the achievement of 217 Federal objectives in 13 societal benefit areas (SBAs). This study will demonstrate the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to show the different Federal objectives and SBAs that are impacted by the Earth observation systems used to measure ECVs. Describing how the measurements from these Earth observation systems are used not only to maintain the climate record but also to meet additional Federal objectives may help articulate the continued measurement of the ECVs. This study will act as a pilot for the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to map between the measurements required to observe additional sets of variables, such as the Essential Ocean Variables and Essential Biodiversity Variables, and the ability to achieve a variety of societal benefits.

Inter-species and Seasonal Variability in Mg / Ca in Larger Benthic Foraminifera: Implications for Paleo-proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Saraswati, P. K.; Pande, K.; Sanyal, P.

2015-12-01

The reports of inter-species variability to intra-test heterogeneity in Mg/Ca in several species of foraminifera have raised question about its use in estimation of seawater temperatures and necessitate field and culture studies to verify it for species from different habitats. In this study, we attempt to investigate if Mg/Ca in larger benthic foraminifera (LBF) could be a potential proxy of seawater temperatures for shallow marine carbonates. The samples were collected in different seasons from coral reef at Akajima (Okinawa, Japan). The Ca and Mg of 13 species of LBF and small benthic foraminifera from the same season were determined to examine variation in Mg/Ca among the species calcified under presumably the same temperature and salinity conditions. We also analyzed Amphistegina lessoni from different seasons for Ca, Mg and δ18O to determine variation in Mg/Ca with temperature and see how the two proxies of temperatures, Mg/Ca and δ18O, correlate in the same species. The species cluster about two distinctly separated Mg/Ca values. The first group comprising species of Amphistegina, Gypsina, Ammonia and Elphidium have relatively lower Mg/Ca, varying from 30 to 45 mmol/mol. The second group, having average Mg/Ca ranging from ~110 to 170 mmol/mol, includes species of Schlumbergerella, Baculogypsinoides, Baculogypsina, Heterostegina, Operculina, Calcarina, Amphisorus, Alveolinella and Poroeponides. The result suggests large interspecies variability implying vital effect in foraminiferal Mg/Ca. There is no distinct difference in Mg/Ca values between porcelaneous and hyaline types or symbiont-bearing and symbiont-free types. In Amphistegina lessoni the variation in Mg/Ca between individuals of the same season is as large as variation across the seasons. There is no correlation between Mg/Ca and seawater temperature. Lack of correlation between Mg/Ca and δ18O further suggests that Mg/Ca in the species is not primarily controlled by temperature.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Brazil - Malvinas Front: an Altimetry Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraceno, M.; Valla, D.; Pelegrí, J. L.; Piola, A. R.

2016-02-01

The Brazil and Malvinas Confluence in the Southwestern Atlantic is one of the most energetic regions of the world ocean. Using recent measurements of sub-surface velocity currents, collected along 2348 nautical miles with a vessel mounted acoustic Doppler profiler onboard R/V BIO Hespérides, we validate geostrophic velocities derived from gridded fields of sea surface height (SSH). A remarkable correspondence between in-situ surface hydrographic data collected from the vessel and satellite sea surface temperature (SST), color and altimetry data allows selecting a specific SSH contour to track the position of the Brazil-Malvinas front. We then use 22 years of SSH data distributed by AVISO to show that the Brazil-Malvinas front shows a NS orientation in winter and a NE-SW orientation in summer, in good agreement with results based on the analysis of SST gradients. Furthermore, a clear southward migration of the front during the 22 year period is observed. The migration is associated with the southward shift of the South Atlantic high-pressure system that is in turn related to large climate changes in the southern portion of the South American continent. The seasonal variability in the orientation of the front is related to the Brazil and Malvinas encountering currents.

Seasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Walker, J. M.

2017-12-01

Here, we analyze seasonal changes in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in atmospheric reanalysis data using a threshold-independent index of monsoon onset we have recently introduced (Walker and Bordoni 2016). We seek to evaluate the extent to which emerging theoretical frameworks are consistent with the observed monsoon. Climatological composites reveal that at monsoon onset, an abrupt strengthening and northward migration of the maximum in sub-cloud equivalent potential temperature accompany the rapid northward movement of the monsoon rainbelt. These changes are driven by changes in near-surface specific humidity, rather than changes in near-surface temperature, whose gradient actually decreases at monsoon onset. These findings are inconsistent with the traditional paradigm of the monsoon as a sea breeze circulation and confirm the convectively coupled view of the SASM circulation as an energetically-direct overturning circulation as more fundamental for the understanding of monsoon dynamics. Providing further support to this emerging view, we show that the SASM sector mean circulation at monsoon onset undergoes a rapid transition from an equinox circulation with a pair of tropical overturning cells, to a solstice circulation dominated by a strong cross-equatorial monsoonal cell and negligible overturning cell in the northern hemisphere.This transition corresponds to a transition in the leading order momentum budget, from an eddy-dominated equinox regime to a highly nonlinear monsoon regime which approaches conservation of angular momentum. These transitions are similar to those seen in idealized zonally symmetric studies of aquaplanet monsoons, suggesting that eddy-mean flow feedbacks identified in those studies may be acting in the SASM sector, and may contribute to the abruptness of the SASM onset. Our findings highlight the importance of nonlinear dynamics in the seasonal evolution of the SASM circulation and suggest

Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index across the north slope of Alaska in the 1990s

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stow, D.; Daeschner, Scott; Hope, A.; Douglas, David C.; Petersen, A.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Zhou, L.; Oechel, W.

2003-01-01

The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the north slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) derived from local area coverage (LAC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Smaller SINDVI values occurred during the three years (1992-1994) following the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Even after implementing corrections for this stratospheric aerosol effect and adjusting for changes in radiometric calibration coefficients, an apparent increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s is evident for the entire north slope. The most pronounced increase was observed for the foothills physiographical province.

Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern

About the seasonal variability of the Alboran Sea circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Yáñez, M.; Plaza, F.; García-Lafuente, J.; Sarhan, T.; Vargas, J. M.; Vélez-Belchi, P.

2002-07-01

Data from a mooring line deployed midway between the Alboran Island and Cape Tres Forcas are used to study the time variability of the Alboran Sea from May 1997 to May 1998. The upper layer salinity and zonal velocity present annual and semiannual cycles characterised by a minimum in spring and autumn and a maximum in summer and winter. Temperature has the opposite behaviour to that of salinity indicating changes in the presence of the Atlantic water within the Alboran Passage. A large set of SST images is used to study these cycles. The decrease of salinity and velocity in our mooring location in spring and autumn seems to be related to the eastward drifting of the Western Alboran Gyre (WAG). The increase of salinity and velocity is caused by the Atlantic current flowing south of the Alboran Island and its associated thermohaline front. Conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data from two cruises along the 3°W are coherent with current meters and SST interpretations. During the period analysed, summer months are characterised by the stability of the two-gyre system, while in winter, the circulation is characterised by a coastal jet flowing close to the African shore. We use sea level differences across the Strait of Gibraltar for studying the variability of the Atlantic inflow. We discuss the changes in the Alboran Sea circulation and its relation with the variability of the inertial radius of the Atlantic inflow. Though our results are speculative, we find a possible relation between the disappearance of the two-gyre system and a reversal of the circulation in Gibraltar. Longer time series are needed to conclude, but comparison with previous works makes us think that the seasonal cycle described from May 1997 to May 1998 could be the most likely one for the Alboran Sea upper layer.

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.

2010-01-01

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Seasonal Variability of Thermophilic Campylobacter Spp. in Raw Milk Sold by Automatic Vending Machines in Lombardy Region.

PubMed

Bertasi, Barbara; Losio, Marina Nadia; Daminelli, Paolo; Finazzi, Guido; Serraino, Andrea; Piva, Silvia; Giacometti, Federica; Massella, Elisa; Ostanello, Fabio

2016-06-03

In temperate climates, a seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of human campylobacteriosis cases, with peaks reported in spring and autumn in some countries, or in summer in others; a similar trend was observed in Campylobacter spp. dairy cattle faecal shedding, suggesting that cattle may play a role in the seasonal peak of human infection. The objectives of this study were to assess if a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk exists and to evaluate a possible relation between this and the increase of human campylobacteriosis incidence in summer months. The results showed a mean prevalence of 1.6% of milk samples positive for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. with a wide range (0.0-3.1%) in different months during the three years considered. The statistical analysis showed a significant difference (P<0.01) of the prevalence of positive samples for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. between warmer and cooler months (2.3 vs 0.6%). The evidence of a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk sold for direct consumption, with an increase of the prevalence in warmer months, may represent one of the possible links between seasonal trend in cattle faecal shedding and seasonal trend in human campylobacteriosis.

Seasonal water chemistry variability in the Pangani River basin, Tanzania.

PubMed

Selemani, Juma R; Zhang, Jing; Muzuka, Alfred N N; Njau, Karoli N; Zhang, Guosen; Maggid, Arafa; Mzuza, Maureen K; Jin, Jie; Pradhan, Sonali

2017-11-01

The stable isotopes of δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and dissolved major ions were used to assess spatial and seasonal water chemistry variability, chemical weathering, and hydrological cycle in the Pangani River Basin (PRB), Tanzania. Water in PRB was NaHCO 3 type dominated by carbonate weathering with moderate total dissolved solids. Major ions varied greatly, increasing from upstream to downstream. In some stations, content of fluoride and sodium was higher than the recommended drinking water standards. Natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to the lowering rate of chemical weathering; the rate was lower than most of tropical rivers. The rate of weathering was higher in Precambrian than volcanic rocks. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr was lower than global average whereas concentration of strontium was higher than global average with mean annual flux of 0.13 × 10 6  mol year -1 . Evaporation and altitude effects have caused enrichment of δ 18 O and δ 2 H in dry season and downstream of the river. Higher d-excess value than global average suggests that most of the stations were supplied by recycled moisture. Rainfall and groundwater were the major sources of surface flowing water in PRB; nevertheless, glacier from Mt. Kilimanjaro has insignificant contribution to the surface water. We recommend measures to be taken to reduce the level of fluoride and sodium before domestic use.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

2016-02-01

Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

2004-11-01

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Inter-seasonal variability in baseflow recession rates: The role of aquifer antecedent storage in central California watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, Ryan; Hope, Allen

2014-11-01

Baseflow recession rates vary inter-seasonally in many watersheds. This variability is generally associated with changes in evapotranspiration; however, an additional and less studied control over inter-seasonal baseflow recession rates is the effect of aquifer antecedent storage. Understanding the role of aquifer antecedent storage on baseflow recession rates is crucial for Mediterranean-climate regions, where seasonal asynchronicity of precipitation and energy levels produces large inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage. The primary objective of this study was to elucidate the relation between aquifer antecedent storage and baseflow recession rates in four central California watersheds using antecedent streamflow as a surrogate for watershed storage. In addition, a parsimonious storage-discharge model consisting of two nonlinear stores in parallel was developed as a heuristic tool for interpreting the empirical results and providing insight into how inter-seasonal changes in aquifer antecedent storage may affect baseflow recession rates. Antecedent streamflow cumulated from the beginning of the wateryear was found to be the strongest predictor of baseflow recession rates, indicating that inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage are a key control on baseflow recession rates in California watersheds. Baseflow recession rates and antecedent streamflow exhibited a negative power-law relation, with baseflow recession rates decreasing by up to two orders of magnitude as antecedent streamflow levels increased. Inference based on the storage-discharge model indicated that the dominant source of recession flow shifted from small, rapid response aquifers at the beginning of the wet season to large, seasonal aquifers as the wet season progressed. Aquifer antecedent storage in California watersheds should be accounted for along with evapotranspiration when characterizing baseflow recession rates.

Interannual and Diurnal Variability in Water Ice Clouds Observed from MSL Over Two Martian Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Whiteway, J. A.; Aggarwal, M.

2018-01-01

We update the results of cloud imaging sequences from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity to complete two Mars years of observations (LS=160° of Mars year (MY) 31 to LS=160° of MY 33). Relatively good seasonal coverage is achieved within the study period, with just over 500 observations obtained, averaging one observation every 2-3 sols. Cloud opacity measurements are made using differential photometry and a simplified radiative transfer method. These opacity measurements are used to assess the interannual variability of the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) for MY 32 and 33. Upon accounting for a statistical bias in the data set, the variation is found to be <30% within uncertainty. Diurnal variation of the ACB is also able to be examined in MY 33 owing to an increased number of early morning observations in this year. Although a gap in data around local noon prevents a complete assessment, we find that cloud opacity is moderately increased in the morning hours (07:00-09:00) compared to the late afternoon (15:00-17:00).

Observational evidence of seasonality in the timing of loop current eddy separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Cody A.; Leben, Robert R.

2016-12-01

Observational datasets, reports and analyses over the time period from 1978 through 1992 are reviewed to derive pre-altimetry Loop Current (LC) eddy separation dates. The reanalysis identified 20 separation events in the 15-year record. Separation dates are estimated to be accurate to approximately ± 1.5 months and sufficient to detect statistically significant LC eddy separation seasonality, which was not the case for previously published records because of the misidentification of separation events and their timing. The reanalysis indicates that previously reported LC eddy separation dates, determined for the time period before the advent of continuous altimetric monitoring in the early 1990s, are inaccurate because of extensive reliance on satellite sea surface temperature (SST) imagery. Automated LC tracking techniques are used to derive LC eddy separation dates in three different altimetry-based sea surface height (SSH) datasets over the time period from 1993 through 2012. A total of 28-30 LC eddy separation events were identified in the 20-year record. Variations in the number and dates of eddy separation events are attributed to the different mean sea surfaces and objective-analysis smoothing procedures used to produce the SSH datasets. Significance tests on various altimetry and pre-altimetry/altimetry combined date lists consistently show that the seasonal distribution of separation events is not uniform at the 95% confidence level. Randomization tests further show that the seasonal peak in LC eddy separation events in August and September is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance. The other seasonal peak in February and March is less significant, but possibly indicates two seasons of enhanced probability of eddy separation centered near the spring and fall equinoxes. This is further quantified by objectively dividing the seasonal distribution into two seasons using circular statistical techniques and a k-means clustering algorithm. The estimated

Drivers, mechanisms and long term variability of bottom seasonal hypoxia in the Black Sea north-western Shelf. Is there any recovery after eutrophication ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capet, Arthur; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Grégoire, Marilaure

2013-04-01

amount of semi-labile organic matter in the sediments (C) and the duration of the stratification (D). Eutrophication (N,C) and climate (T ,D) predictors explain a similar amount of variability (~ 35%) when considered separately. A typical timescale of 9.3 years is found to describe the inertia of sediments in the recovering process after eutrophication. From this analysis, we find that under standard conditions (i.e. average atmospheric conditions, sediments in equilibrium with river discharges), the intensity of hypoxia can be linked to the level of nitrate discharge through a non-linear equation (power law). Bottom hypoxia does not affect the whole Black Sea NWS but rather exhibits an important spatial variability. This heterogeneous distribution, in addition to the seasonal fluctuations, complicates the monitoring of bottom hypoxia leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. We find that it was the case after 1995 when the recovery process was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses out the urging need of a dedicated monitoring effort in the NWS of the Black Sea focused on the areas and the period of the year concerned by recurrent hypoxic events.

Uranus’ cloud structure and seasonal variability from Gemini-North and UKIRT observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwin, P. G. J.; Teanby, N. A.; Davis, G. R.; Fletcher, L. N.; Orton, G. S.; Tice, D.; Kyffin, A.

2011-03-01

Observations of Uranus were made in September 2009 with the Gemini-North telescope in Hawaii, using both the NIFS and NIRI instruments. Observations were acquired in Adaptive Optics mode and have a spatial resolution of approximately 0.1″. NIRI images were recorded with three spectral filters to constrain the overall appearance of the planet: J, H-continuum and CH4(long), and long slit spectroscopy measurements were also made (1.49-1.79 μm) with the entrance slit aligned on Uranus’ central meridian. To acquire spectra from other points on the planet, the NIFS instrument was used and its 3″ × 3″ field of view stepped across Uranus’ disc. These observations were combined to yield complete images of Uranus at 2040 wavelengths between 1.476 and 1.803 μm. The observed spectra along Uranus central meridian were analysed with the NEMESIS retrieval tool and used to infer the vertical/latitudinal variation in cloud optical depth. We find that the 2009 Gemini data perfectly complement our observations/conclusions from UKIRT/UIST observations made in 2006-2008 and show that the north polar zone at 45°N has continued to steadily brighten while that at 45°S has continued to fade. The improved spatial resolution of the Gemini observations compared with the non-AO UKIRT/UIST data removes some of the earlier ambiguities with our previous analyses and shows that the opacity of clouds deeper than the 2-bar level does indeed diminish towards the poles and also reveals a darkening of the deeper cloud deck near the equator, perhaps coinciding with a region of subduction. We find that the clouds at 45°N,S lie at slightly lower pressures than the clouds at more equatorial latitudes, which suggests that they might possibly be composed of a different condensate, presumably CH4 ice, rather than H2S or NH3 ice, which is assumed for the deeper cloud. In addition, analysis of the centre-to-limb curves of both the Gemini/NIFS and earlier UKIRT/UIST IFU observations shows that

Seasonal variation in pans in relation to limno-chemistry, size, hydroperiod, and river connectivity in a semi-arid subtropical region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nhiwatiwa, Tamuka; Dalu, Tatenda

2017-02-01

Seasonal pans are hydrologically dynamic, with significant changes in water volume and depth in response to high evaporation, infiltration rates and inundation events. Intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal changes in endorheic and floodplain pans in relation to limnology, size, hydroperiod, and river connectivity were studied over two rainfall seasons across 36 pans at the Save Valley Conservancy. In the study region, floodplain pans were identified as pans that had connectivity with the Save River, while the endorheic pans (large and small) were hydrologically isolated basins. Seasonal trends for physico-chemical variables were initial low and gradual increased for both rainfall seasons. Significant inter-seasonal differences for several physico-chemical variables were observed. No significant differences in physico-chemical variables were observed between large and small endorheic pans, with the except for vegetation cover, which was higher in large pans. Floodplain pans differed from the endorheic systems in pH, conductivity, nutrients and suspended solids. Connectivity was found to be insignificant, as connections between these systems were probably too infrequent. Seasonal pans were uniquely distinguished by their morphometric, physico-chemical and hydrological characteristics. Inevitably, they are vulnerable to climate change with the extent of their resilience currently unknown.

Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

PubMed Central

Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

2012-01-01

Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

Seasonal variability of PM2.5 composition and sources in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amil, Norhaniza; Talib Latif, Mohd; Firoz Khan, Md; Mohamad, Maznorizan

2016-04-01

This study investigates the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) variability in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment. In total, 94 daily PM2.5 samples were collected during a 1-year campaign from August 2011 to July 2012. This is the first paper on PM2.5 mass, chemical composition and sources in the tropical environment of Southeast Asia, covering all four seasons (distinguished by the wind flow patterns) including haze events. The samples were analysed for various inorganic components and black carbon (BC). The chemical compositions were statistically analysed and the temporal aerosol pattern (seasonal) was characterised using descriptive analysis, correlation matrices, enrichment factor (EF), stoichiometric analysis and chemical mass closure (CMC). For source apportionment purposes, a combination of positive matrix factorisation (PMF) and multi-linear regression (MLR) was employed. Further, meteorological-gaseous parameters were incorporated into each analysis for improved assessment. In addition, secondary data of total suspended particulate (TSP) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) sampled at the same location and time with this study (collected by Malaysian Meteorological Department) were used for PM ratio assessment. The results showed that PM2.5 mass averaged at 28 ± 18 µg m-3, 2.8-fold higher than the World Health Organisation (WHO) annual guideline. On a daily basis, the PM2.5 mass ranged between 6 and 118 µg m-3 with the daily WHO guideline exceeded 43 % of the time. The north-east (NE) monsoon was the only season with less than 50 % sample exceedance of the daily WHO guideline. On an annual scale, PM2.5 mass correlated positively with temperature (T) and wind speed (WS) but negatively with relative humidity (RH). With the exception of NOx, the gases analysed (CO, NO2, NO and SO2) were found to significantly influence the PM2.5 mass. Seasonal variability unexpectedly showed that rainfall, WS and wind direction (WD) did not significantly correlate

Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

2017-06-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

Microwave radiometer observations of interannual water vapor variability and vertical structure over a tropical station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, R.; Suresh Raju, C.; Mathew, Nizy; Antony, Tinu; Krishna Moorthy, K.

2015-05-01

The intraseasonal and interannual characteristics and the vertical distribution of atmospheric water vapor from the tropical coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (TVM) located in the southwestern region of the Indian Peninsula are examined from continuous multiyear, multifrequency microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) measurements. The accuracy of MRP for precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimation, particularly during a prolonged monsoon period, has been demonstrated by comparing with the PWV derived from collocated GPS measurements based on regression model between PWV and GPS wet delay component which has been developed for TVM station. Large diurnal and intraseasonal variations of PWV are observed during winter and premonsoon seasons. There is large interannual PWV variability during premonsoon, owing to frequent local convection and summer thunderstorms. During monsoon period, low interannual PWV variability is attributed to the persistent wind from the ocean which brings moisture to this coastal station. However, significant interannual humidity variability is seen at 2 to 6 km altitude, which is linked to the monsoon strength over the station. Prior to monsoon onset over the station, the specific humidity increases up to 5-10 g/kg in the altitude region above 5 km and remains consistently so throughout the active spells.

The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

2016-06-01

This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

Meteorological-gaseous influences on seasonal PM2.5 variability in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amil, N.; Latif, M. T.; Khan, M. F.; Mohamad, M.

2015-09-01

This study attempts to investigate the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) variability in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment. In total, 94 daily PM2.5 samples were collected during a one-year campaign from August 2011 to July 2012, covering all four seasons. The samples were analysed for various inorganic components and black carbon. The chemical compositions were statistically analysed and the aerosol pattern was characterised using descriptive analysis, correlation matrices, enrichment factors (EF), stoichiometric analysis and chemical mass closure (CMC). For source apportionment purposes, a combination of positive matrix factorisation (PMF) and multi-linear regression (MLR) was employed. Further, meteorological-gaseous parameters were incorporated into each analysis for improved assessment. The results showed that PM2.5 mass averaged at 28 ± 18 μg m-3, 2.8 fold higher than the World Health Organisation (WHO) annual guideline. On a daily basis, the PM2.5 mass ranged between 6 and 118 μg m-3 with 43 % exceedance of the daily WHO guideline. The North-East monsoon (NE) was the only season with < 50 % sample exceedance of the daily WHO guideline. On an annual scale, PM2.5 mass correlated positively with temperature (T) and wind speed (WS) but negatively with relative humidity (RH). With the exception of NOx, the gases analysed (CO, NO2, NO and SO2) were found to significantly influence the PM2.5 mass. Seasonal variability unexpectedly showed that rainfall, WS and wind direction (WD) did not significantly correlate with PM2.5 mass. Further analysis on the PM2.5 / PM10, PM2.5 / TSP and PM10 / TSP ratios reveal that meteorological parameters only greatly influenced the coarse particles (PM > 2.5μm) and less so the fine particles at the site. Chemical composition showed that both primary and secondary pollutants of PM2.5 are equally important, albeit with seasonal variability. The CMC components identified were: black carbon (BC) > secondary inorganic aerosols

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Seasonal variability of aerosols and their characteristics in urban and rural locations of Delhi-NCR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Purnima; Pandey, Alok Kumar; Kumar, Krishan; Jain, V. K.

2017-10-01

Present study shows the seasonal variation of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and aerosols characteristics in an urban and rural environment over Delhi-NCR. Aerosol sampling was carried out using a Mini-Volume sampler at an urban and rural location in Delhi-NCR. A relatively higher PM2.5 (particulate matter of size < 2.5 μm) concentrations were observed at the urban sampling site than the rural one in the summer as well as winter season. PM2.5 samples were further analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (EDX) in order to understand the morphology and elemental composition of the PM2.5 aerosols. Summer SEM results showed the dominance of fluffy agglomerate (soot) in urban area whereas the rural area was relatively clean. The winter season SEM results showed the presence of aggregates of smaller particles at urban site whereas flaky, round and irregular shaped particles were observed at the rural site. EDX analysis showed the presence of elements such as C, Cu, Zn, Ga and Fe (representative elements) in varying concentrations at both the urban and rural sampling locations. NASA's Aqua satellite MODIS sensor AOD data for summer and winter seasons have been used to study the spatial distributions of aerosols over the study region. AOD was found to be relatively higher in urban area as compared to the rural area in both the summer and winter seasons indicating the contribution of high amount of anthropogenic aerosols in the urban atmosphere.

Seasonal radiogenic isotopic variability of the African dust outflow to the tropical Atlantic Ocean and across to the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ashwini; Abouchami, W.; Galer, S. J. G.; Singh, Satinder Pal; Fomba, K. W.; Prospero, J. M.; Andreae, M. O.

2018-04-01

In order to assess the impact of mineral dust on climate and biogeochemistry, it is paramount to identify the sources of dust emission. In this regard, radiogenic isotopes have recently been used successfully for tracing North African dust provenance and its transport across the tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean. Here we present two time series of radiogenic isotopes (Pb, Sr and Nd) in dusts collected at the Cape Verde Islands and Barbados in order to determine the origin of the dust and examine the seasonality of westerly dust outflow from Northern Africa. Aerosol samples were collected daily during two campaigns - February 2012 (winter) and June-July 2013 (summer) - at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on the island of São Vicente (16.9°N, 24.9°W). A one-year-long time series of aerosols from Barbados (13.16°N, 59.43°W) - a receptor region in the Caribbean - was sampled at a lower, monthly resolution. Our results resolve a seasonal isotopic signal at Cape Verde shown by daily variations, with a larger radiogenic isotope variability in winter compared to that in summer. This summer signature is also observed over Barbados, indicating similar dust provenance at both locations, despite different sampling years. This constrains the isotope fingerprint of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust that is well-mixed during its transport. This result provides unequivocal evidence for a permanent, albeit of variable strength, long-range transport of African dust to the Caribbean and is in full agreement with atmospheric models of North African dust emission and transport across the tropical Atlantic in the SAL. The seasonal isotopic variability is related to changes in the dust source areas - mainly the Sahara and Sahel regions - that are active all-year-round, albeit with variable contributions in summer versus the winter months. Our results provide little support for much dust contributed from the Bodélé Depression in Chad - the "dustiest" place on Earth

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Interannual, seasonal and diurnal Mars surface environmental cycles observed from Viking to Curiosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, German; Vicente-Retortillo, Álvaro; Kemppinen, Osku; Fischer, Erik; Fairen, Alberto G.; Guzewich, Scott David; Haberle, Robert; Lemmon, Mark T.; Newman, Claire E.; Renno, Nilton O.; Richardson, Mark I.; Smith, Michael D.; De la Torre, Manuel; Vasavada, Ashwin R.

2016-10-01

We analyze in-situ environmental data from the Viking landers to the Curiosity rover to estimate atmospheric pressure, near-surface air and ground temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and dust opacity with the highest confidence possible. We study the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variability of these quantities at the various landing sites over a span of more than twenty Martian years to characterize the climate on Mars and its variability. Additionally, we characterize the radiative environment at the various landing sites by estimating the daily UV irradiation (also called insolation and defined as the total amount of solar UV energy received on flat surface during one sol) and by analyzing its interannual and seasonal variability.In this study we use measurements conducted by the Viking Meteorology Instrument System (VMIS) and Viking lander camera onboard the Viking landers (VL); the Atmospheric Structure Instrument/Meteorology (ASIMET) package and the Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) onboard the Mars Pathfinder (MPF) lander; the Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) and Pancam instruments onboard the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER); the Meteorological Station (MET), Thermal Electrical Conductivity Probe (TECP) and Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager (SSI) onboard the Phoenix (PHX) lander; and the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) and Mastcam instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover.A thorough analysis of in-situ environmental data from past and present missions is important to aid in the selection of the Mars 2020 landing site. We plan to extend our analysis of Mars surface environmental cycles by using upcoming data from the Temperature and Wind sensors (TWINS) instrument onboard the InSight mission and the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) instrument onboard the Mars 2020 mission.

Wet-season spatial variability of N2O emissions from a tea field in subtropical central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, X.; Liu, X.; Li, Y.; Shen, J.; Wang, Y.; Zou, G.; Li, H.; Song, L.; Wu, J.

2015-01-01

Tea fields emit large amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. Obtaining accurate estimations of N2O emissions from tea-planted soils is challenging due to strong spatial variability. We examined the spatial variability of N2O emissions from a red-soil tea field in Hunan province, China, on 22 April 2012 (in a wet season) using 147 static mini chambers approximately regular gridded in a 4.0 ha tea field. The N2O fluxes for a 30 min snapshot (10-10.30 a.m.) ranged from -1.73 to 1659.11 g N ha-1 d-1 and were positively skewed with an average flux of 102.24 g N ha-1 d-1. The N2O flux data were transformed to a normal distribution by using a logit function. The geostatistical analyses of our data indicated that the logit-transformed N2O fluxes (FLUX30t) exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation, which was characterized by an exponential semivariogram model with an effective range of 25.2 m. As observed in the wet season, the logit-transformed soil ammonium-N (NH4Nt), soil nitrate-N (NO3Nt), soil organic carbon (SOCt), total soil nitrogen (TSNt) were all found to be significantly correlated with FLUX30t (r=0.57-0.71, p<0.001). Three spatial interpolation methods (ordinary kriging, regression kriging and cokriging) were applied to estimate the spatial distribution of N2O emissions over the study area. Cokriging with NH4Nt and NO3Nt as covariables (r= 0.74 and RMSE =1.18) outperformed ordinary kriging (r= 0.18 and RMSE =1.74), regression kriging with the sample position as a predictor (r= 0.49 and RMSE =1.55) and cokriging with SOCt as a covariable (r= 0.58 and RMSE =1.44). The predictions of the three kriging interpolation methods for the total N2O emissions of the 4.0 ha tea field ranged from 148.2 to 208.1 g N d-1, based on the 30 min snapshots obtained during the wet season. Our findings suggested that to accurately estimate the total N2O emissions over a region, the environmental variables (e.g., soil properties) and the current land use pattern (e.g., tea

Wet-season spatial variability in N2O emissions from a tea field in subtropical central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, X.; Liu, X.; Li, Y.; Shen, J.; Wang, Y.; Zou, G.; Li, H.; Song, L.; Wu, J.

2015-06-01

Tea fields emit large amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. Obtaining accurate estimations of N2O emissions from tea-planted soils is challenging due to strong spatial variability. We examined the spatial variability in N2O emissions from a red-soil tea field in Hunan Province, China, on 22 April 2012 (in a wet season) using 147 static mini chambers approximately regular gridded in a 4.0 ha tea field. The N2O fluxes for a 30 min snapshot (10:00-10:30 a.m.) ranged from -1.73 to 1659.11 g N ha-1 d-1 and were positively skewed with an average flux of 102.24 g N ha-1 d-1. The N2O flux data were transformed to a normal distribution by using a logit function. The geostatistical analyses of our data indicated that the logit-transformed N2O fluxes (FLUX30t) exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation, which was characterized by an exponential semivariogram model with an effective range of 25.2 m. As observed in the wet season, the logit-transformed soil ammonium-N (NH4Nt), soil nitrate-N (NO3Nt), soil organic carbon (SOCt) and total soil nitrogen (TSNt) were all found to be significantly correlated with FLUX30t (r = 0.57-0.71, p < 0.001). Three spatial interpolation methods (ordinary kriging, regression kriging and cokriging) were applied to estimate the spatial distribution of N2O emissions over the study area. Cokriging with NH4Nt and NO3Nt as covariables (r = 0.74 and RMSE = 1.18) outperformed ordinary kriging (r = 0.18 and RMSE = 1.74), regression kriging with the sample position as a predictor (r = 0.49 and RMSE = 1.55) and cokriging with SOCt as a covariable (r = 0.58 and RMSE = 1.44). The predictions of the three kriging interpolation methods for the total N2O emissions of 4.0 ha tea field ranged from 148.2 to 208.1 g N d-1, based on the 30 min snapshots obtained during the wet season. Our findings suggested that to accurately estimate the total N2O emissions over a region, the environmental variables (e.g., soil properties) and the current land use pattern

Near-infrared observations of the variable crab nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, M.; Mori, K.; Shibata, S.; Tsujimoto, M.; Misawa, T.; Burrows, D.; Kawai, N.

We present three near-infrared NIR observations of the Crab Nebula obtained with CISCO on the Subaru Telescope and Quick Infrared Camera on the University of HAWAII 88 inch Telescope The observations were performed on 2004 September 2005 February and 2005 October and were coordinated with X-ray observations obtained with the Chandra X-ray observatory within 10 days As shown in previous optical and X-ray monitoring observations outward-moving wisps and variable knots are detected also in our NIR observations The NIR variations are closely correlated with variations in the X-ray observations indicating that both variations are driven by the same physical process We discuss the origin of NIR-emitting particles based on the temporal variations as well as the spectral energy distributions of each variable component

Seasonal Change on Saturn from Cassini/CIRS Observations, 2004-2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fletcher, Leigh N.; Achterberg, Richard K.; Greathouse, Thomas K.; Orton, Glenn S.; Conrath, Barney J.; Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Teanby, Nicholas; Guerlet, Sandrine; Irwin, Patrick G. J.; Flasar, F. M.

2010-01-01

Five years of thermal infrared spectra from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are analyzed to determine the response of Saturn's atmosphere to seasonal changes in insolation. Hemispheric mapping sequences at 15.0 cm-1 spectral resolution are used to retrieve the variation in the zonal mean temperatures in the stratosphere (0.5-5.0 mbar) and upper troposphere (75-800 mbar) between October 2004 (shortly after the summer solstice in the southern hemisphere) and July 2009 (shortly before the autumnal equinox). Saturn's northern mid-latitudes show signs of dramatic warming in the stratosphere (by 6-10 K) as they emerge from ring-shadow into springtime conditions, whereas southern mid-latitudes show evidence for cooling (4-6 K). The 40-K asymmetry in stratospheric temperatures between northern and southern hemispheres (at 1 mbar) slowly decreased during the timespan of the observations. Tropospheric temperatures also show temporal variations but with a smaller range, consistent with the increasing radiative time constant of the atmospheric response with increasing pressure. The tropospheric response to the insolation changes shows the largest magnitude at the locations of the broad retrograde jets. Saturn's warm south-polar stratospheric hood has cooled over the course of the mission, but remains present. Stratospheric temperatures are compared to a radiative climate model which accounts for the spatial distribution of the stratospheric coolants. The model successfully predicts the magnitude and morphology of the observed changes at most latitudes. However, the model fails at locations where strong dynamical perturbations dominate the temporal changes in the thermal field, such as the hot polar vortices and the equatorial semi-annual oscillation (Orton, G., and 27 colleagues [2008]. Nature 453, 196-198). Furthermore, observed temperatures in Saturn's ring-shadowed regions are larger than predicted by all radiative-climate models to date due to the

Seasonal and interannual variability of dissolved oxygen around the Balearic Islands from hydrographic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Aparicio-González, A.; Serra, M.

2014-10-01

Oceanographic data obtained between 2001 and 2011 by the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO, Spain) have been used to characterise the spatial distribution and the temporal variability of the dissolved oxygen around the Balearic Islands (Mediterranean Sea). The study area includes most of the Western Mediterranean Sea, from the Alboran Sea to Cape Creus, at the border between France and Spain. Dissolved oxygen (DO) at the water surface is found to be in a state of equilibrium exchange with the atmosphere. In the spring and summer a subsurface oxygen supersaturation is observed due to the biological activity, above the subsurface fluorescence maximum. Minimum observed values of dissolved oxygen are related to the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW). An unusual minimum of dissolved oxygen concentrations was also recorded in the Alboran Sea Oxygen Minimum Zone. The Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) and the Western Intermediate Waters (WIW) show higher values of dissolved oxygen than the Levantine Intermediate Waters due to their more recent formation. Using these dissolved oxygen concentrations it is possible to show that the Western Intermediate Waters move southwards across the Ibiza Channel and the deep water circulates around the Balearic Islands. It has also been possible to characterise the seasonal evolution of the different water masses and their dissolved oxygen content in a station in the Algerian sub-basin.

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

PubMed Central

Rocklöv, Joacim; Edvinsson, Sören; Arnqvist, Per; de Luna, Sara Sjöstedt; Schumann, Barbara

2014-01-01

Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation), while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature) and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation) approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts. PMID:25003551

Intraseasonal Variability of the Equatorial Indian Ocean Observed from Sea Surface Height, Wind, and Temperature Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng

2007-01-01

The forcing of the equatorial Indian Ocean by the highly periodic monsoon wind cycle creates many interesting intraseasonal variabilities. The frequency spectrum of the wind stress observations from the European Remote Sensing Satellite scatterometers reveals peaks at the seasonal cycle and its higher harmonics at 180, 120, 90, and 75 days. The observations of sea surface height (SSH) from the Jason and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon radar altimeters are analyzed to study the ocean's response. The focus of the study is on the intraseasonal periods shorter than the annual period. The semiannual SSH variability is characterized by a basin mode involving Rossby waves and Kelvin waves traveling back and forth in the equatorial Indian Ocean between 10(deg)S and 10(deg)N. However, the interference of these waves with each other masks the appearance of individual Kelvin and Rossby waves, leading to a nodal point (amphidrome) of phase propagation on the equator at the center of the basin. The characteristics of the mode correspond to a resonance of the basin according to theoretical models. The theory also calls for similar modes at 90 and 60 days.

Real-time predictive seasonal influenza model in Catalonia, Spain

PubMed Central

Basile, Luca; Oviedo de la Fuente, Manuel; Torner, Nuria; Martínez, Ana; Jané, Mireia

2018-01-01

Influenza surveillance is critical to monitoring the situation during epidemic seasons and predictive mathematic models may aid the early detection of epidemic patterns. The objective of this study was to design a real-time spatial predictive model of ILI (Influenza Like Illness) incidence rate in Catalonia using one- and two-week forecasts. The available data sources used to select explanatory variables to include in the model were the statutory reporting disease system and the sentinel surveillance system in Catalonia for influenza incidence rates, the official climate service in Catalonia for meteorological data, laboratory data and Google Flu Trend. Time series for every explanatory variable with data from the last 4 seasons (from 2010–2011 to 2013–2014) was created. A pilot test was conducted during the 2014–2015 season to select the explanatory variables to be included in the model and the type of model to be applied. During the 2015–2016 season a real-time model was applied weekly, obtaining the intensity level and predicted incidence rates with 95% confidence levels one and two weeks away for each health region. At the end of the season, the confidence interval success rate (CISR) and intensity level success rate (ILSR) were analysed. For the 2015–2016 season a CISR of 85.3% at one week and 87.1% at two weeks and an ILSR of 82.9% and 82% were observed, respectively. The model described is a useful tool although it is hard to evaluate due to uncertainty. The accuracy of prediction at one and two weeks was above 80% globally, but was lower during the peak epidemic period. In order to improve the predictive power, new explanatory variables should be included. PMID:29513710

Long-period humidity variability in the Arctic atmosphere from upper-air observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agurenko, A.; Khokhlova, A.

2014-12-01

Under climate change, atmospheric water content also tends to change. This gives rise to changes in the amount of moisture transferred, clouds and precipitation, as well as in hydrological regime. This work analyzes seasonal climatic characteristics of precipitated water in the Arctic atmosphere, by using 1972-2011 data from 55 upper-air stations located north of 60°N. Regions of maximum and minimum mean values and variability trends are determined. In the summer, water amount is shown to increase in nearly the whole of the latitudinal zone. The comparison with the similar characteristics of reanalysis obtained by the other authors shows a good agreement. Time variation in the atmosphere moisture transport crossing 70°N, which is calculated from observation data, is presented and compared with model results. The work is supported by the joint EC ERA.Net RUS and Russian Fundamental Research Fund Project "Arctic Climate Processes Linked Through the Circulation of the Atmosphere" (ACPCA) (project 12-05-91656-ЭРА_а).

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars: I. Spring sublimation activity and processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, C.J.; Byrne, S.; Portyankina, G.; Bourke, M.; Dundas, C.; McEwen, A.; Mellon, M.; Pommerol, A.; Thomas, N.

2013-01-01

Spring sublimation of the seasonal CO2 northern polar cap is a dynamic process in the current Mars climate. Phenomena include dark fans of dune material propelled out onto the seasonal ice layer, polygonal cracks in the seasonal ice, sand flow down slipfaces, and outbreaks of gas and sand around the dune margins. These phenomena are concentrated on the north polar erg that encircles the northern residual polar cap. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has been in orbit for three Mars years, allowing us to observe three northern spring seasons. Activity is consistent with and well described by the Kieffer model of basal sublimation of the seasonal layer of ice applied originally in the southern hemisphere. Three typical weak spots have been identified on the dunes for escape of gas sublimed from the bottom of the seasonal ice layer: the crest of the dune, the interface of the dune with the interdune substrate, and through polygonal cracks in the ice. Pressurized gas flows through these vents and carries out material entrained from the dune. Furrows in the dunes channel gas to outbreak points and may be the northern equivalent of southern radially-organized channels (“araneiform” terrain), albeit not permanent. Properties of the seasonal CO2 ice layer are derived from timing of seasonal events such as when final sublimation occurs. Modification of dune morphology shows that landscape evolution is occurring on Mars today, driven by seasonal activity associated with sublimation of the seasonal CO2 polar cap.

Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maharana, Pyarimohan; Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous; Pattnayak, Kanhu Charan

2018-03-01

Chad is the largest of Africa's landlocked countries and one of the least studied region of the African continent. The major portion of Chad lies in the Sahel region, which is known for its rapid climate change. In this study, multiple observational datasets are analyzed from 1950 to 2014, in order to examine the trend of precipitation and temperature along with their variability over Chad to understand possible impacts of climate change over this region. Trend analysis of the climatic fields has been carried out using Mann-Kendall test. The precipitation over Chad is mostly contributed during summer by West African Monsoon, with maximum northward limit of 18° N. The Atlantic Ocean as well as the Mediterranean Sea are the major source of moisture for the summer rainfall over Chad. Based on the rainfall time series, the entire study period has been divided in to wet (1950 to 1965), dry (1966 to 1990) and recovery period (1991 to 2014). The rainfall has decreased drastically for almost 3 decades during the dry period resulted into various drought years. The temperature increases at a rate of 0.15 °C/decade during the entire period of analysis. The seasonal rainfall as well as temperature plays a major role in the change of land use/cover. The decrease of monsoon rainfall during the dry period reduces the C4 cover drastically; this reduction of C4 grass cover leads to increase of C3 grass cover. The slow revival of rainfall is still not good enough for the increase of shrub cover but it favors the gradual reduction of bare land over Chad.

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

Temporal variability of the Antarctic Ice sheet observed from space-based geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memin, A.; King, M. A.; Boy, J. P.; Remy, F.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass balance still remains challenging as several processes compete to differing degrees at the basin scale with regional variations, leading to multiple mass redistribution patterns. For instance, analysis of linear trends in surface-height variations from 1992-2003 and 2002-2006 shows that the AIS is subject to decimetric scale variability over periods of a few years. Every year, snowfalls in Antarctica represent the equivalent of 6 mm of the mean sea level. Therefore, any fluctuation in precipitation can lead to changes in sea level. Besides, over the last decade, several major glaciers have been thinning at an accelerating rate. Understanding the processes that interact on the ice sheet is therefore important to precisely determine the response of the ice sheet to a rapid changing climate and estimate its contribution to sea level changes. We estimate seasonal and interannual changes of the AIS between January 2003 and October 2010 and to the end of 2016 from a combined analysis of surface-elevation and surface-mass changes derived from Envisat data and GRACE solutions, and from GRACE solutions only, respectively. While we obtain a good correlation for the interannual signal between the two techniques, important differences (in amplitude, phase, and spatial pattern) are obtained for the seasonal signal. We investigate these discrepancies by comparing the crustal motion observed by GPS and those predicted using monthly surface mass balance derived from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO.

Association of monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during 1999-2004 with meteorological variables and seasons.

PubMed

Alexander, P

2013-01-01

This work aims to study associations between monthly averages of meteorological variables and monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public ambulance emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during the years 1999-2004. Throughout this time period no changes were made in the classification codes of the illnesses. Heart disease, arrhythmia, heart failure, cardiopulmonary arrest, angina pectoris, psychiatric diseases, stroke, transient ischemic attack, syncope and the total number of calls were analyzed against 11 weather variables and the four seasons. All illnesses exhibited some seasonal behavior, except cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris. The largest frequencies of illnesses that exhibited some association with the meteorological variables used to occur in winter, except the psychiatric cases. Heart failure, stroke, psychiatric diseases and the total number of calls showed significant correlations with the 11 meteorological variables considered, and the largest indices (absolute values above 0.6) were found for the former two pathologies. On the other side, cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris revealed no significant correlations and nearly null indices. Variables associated with temperature were the meteorological proxies with the largest correlations against diseases. Pressure and humidity mostly exhibited positive correlations, which is the opposite of variables related to temperature. Contrary to all other diseases, psychiatric pathologies showed a clear predominance of positive correlations. Finally, the association degree of the medical dataset with recurrent patterns was further evaluated through Fourier analysis, to assess the presence of statistically significant behavior. In the Northern Hemisphere high morbidity and mortality rates in December are usually assigned to diverse factors in relation to the holidays, but such an effect is not observed in the present analysis. There seems to be no clearly preferred

Association of monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during 1999-2004 with meteorological variables and seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P.

2013-01-01

This work aims to study associations between monthly averages of meteorological variables and monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public ambulance emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during the years 1999-2004. Throughout this time period no changes were made in the classification codes of the illnesses. Heart disease, arrhythmia, heart failure, cardiopulmonary arrest, angina pectoris, psychiatric diseases, stroke, transient ischemic attack, syncope and the total number of calls were analyzed against 11 weather variables and the four seasons. All illnesses exhibited some seasonal behavior, except cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris. The largest frequencies of illnesses that exhibited some association with the meteorological variables used to occur in winter, except the psychiatric cases. Heart failure, stroke, psychiatric diseases and the total number of calls showed significant correlations with the 11 meteorological variables considered, and the largest indices (absolute values above 0.6) were found for the former two pathologies. On the other side, cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris revealed no significant correlations and nearly null indices. Variables associated with temperature were the meteorological proxies with the largest correlations against diseases. Pressure and humidity mostly exhibited positive correlations, which is the opposite of variables related to temperature. Contrary to all other diseases, psychiatric pathologies showed a clear predominance of positive correlations. Finally, the association degree of the medical dataset with recurrent patterns was further evaluated through Fourier analysis, to assess the presence of statistically significant behavior. In the Northern Hemisphere high morbidity and mortality rates in December are usually assigned to diverse factors in relation to the holidays, but such an effect is not observed in the present analysis. There seems to be no clearly preferred

Microphysical variability of Amazonian deep convective cores observed by CloudSat and simulated by a multi-scale modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brant Dodson, J.; Taylor, Patrick C.; Branson, Mark

2018-05-01

Recently launched cloud observing satellites provide information about the vertical structure of deep convection and its microphysical characteristics. In this study, CloudSat reflectivity data is stratified by cloud type, and the contoured frequency by altitude diagrams reveal a double-arc structure in deep convective cores (DCCs) above 8 km. This suggests two distinct hydrometeor modes (snow versus hail/graupel) controlling variability in reflectivity profiles. The day-night contrast in the double arcs is about four times larger than the wet-dry season contrast. Using QuickBeam, the vertical reflectivity structure of DCCs is analyzed in two versions of the Superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM) with single-moment (no graupel) and double-moment (with graupel) microphysics. Double-moment microphysics shows better agreement with observed reflectivity profiles; however, neither model variant captures the double-arc structure. Ultimately, the results show that simulating realistic DCC vertical structure and its variability requires accurate representation of ice microphysics, in particular the hail/graupel modes, though this alone is insufficient.

Seasonal variability in size-segregated airborne bacterial particles and their characterization at different source-sites.

PubMed

Agarwal, Smita

2017-05-01

Size-segregated aerosol samplings were carried out near the potential sources of airborne biological particles i.e. at a landfill site, an agricultural field and a road side restaurant-cluster site in winter, spring and summer seasons during 2013-2015 in New Delhi. The culturable airborne bacterial (CAB) concentrations showed significant seasonal variation from higher to moderate in spring and winter seasons and lowest during summer. Highest CAB concentrations were observed at the Okhla landfill site followed by restaurant-cluster area and agriculture site. The CAB particles showed bimodal size distribution, abundant in the size ranges of 1.1-2.1, 2.1-3.3 and 4.7-5.8 μm. However, substantial concentrations were also observed in the size bins of 0.43-0.65 and <0.43 μm, which are important for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of aerosols in addition to their adverse health effects. In spring, bacterial particles were also maximized in size ranges between 5.8 and >9.0 μm. Fine mode proportions of CAB were found to be higher in winter than other two seasons. Bacterial identification was done by 16s rDNA sequencing, and most abundant identified strains were Bacillus cereus (16%), Bacillus licheniformis (11%), Bacillus thuringiensis (9%), Micrococcus sp. (7%) and Acinetobacter sp. (9%).

Comparison of the seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the Peru and California Current systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, A. C.; Huang, F.; Strub, P. T.; James, C.

1994-01-01

Monthly composite images from the global coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) data set are used to provide an initial illustration and comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the western coasts of South and North America in the Peru Current system (PCS) and California Current system (CCS). The analysis utilizes the entire time series of available data (November 1978 to June 1986) to form a mean annual cycle and an index of interannual variability for a series of both latitudinal and cross-shelf regions within each current system. Within 100 km of the coast, the strongest seasonal cycles in the CCS are in two regions, one between 34 deg and 45 deg N and the second between 24 deg and 29 deg N, each with maximum concentrations (greater than 3.0 mg m(exp-3)) in May-June. Weaker seasonal variability is present north of 45 deg N and in the Southern California Bight region (32 deg N). Within the PCS, in the same 100-km-wide coastal region, highest (greater than 45 deg S) and lowest (less than 20 deg S) latitude regions have a similar seasonal cycle with maximum concentrations (greater than 1.5 mg m(exp -3)) during the austral spring, summer, and fall, matching that evident throughout the CCS. Between these regions, off northern and central Chile, the seasonal maximum occurs during July-August (austral winter), contrary to the influence of upwelling favorable winds. Within the CCS, the dominant feature of interannual variability in the 8-year time series is a strong negative concentration anomaly in 1983, an El Nino year. The relative value of this negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly in 1984 off Baja, California. In the PCS, strong negative anomalies during the 1982-1983 El Nino period are evident only off the Peruvian coast and are evident there only in the

Seasonal influence of environmental variables and artificial aeration on Escherichia coli in small urban lakes.

PubMed

Durham, Bart W; Porter, Lucy; Webb, Allie; Thomas, Joshua

2016-12-01

This study investigated patterns of Escherichia coli in urban lakes in Lubbock, Texas. Specific objectives were to (1) document seasonal patterns in abundance of E. coli over a 3-year period, (2) identify environmental factors, including effects of migratory geese and artificial aeration devices that may influence E. coli abundance, and (3) determine if E. coli abundance over time was similar for individual lakes. Water samples were collected monthly for 36 months from six lakes, three of which contained artificial aeration devices (fountains). Regression models were constructed to determine which environmental variables most influence E. coli abundance in summer and winter seasons. Escherichia coli is present in the lakes of Lubbock, Texas year-round and typically exceeds established bacterial thresholds for recreational waters. Models most frequently contained pH and dissolved oxygen as predictor variables and explained from 17.4% to 92.4% of total variation in E. coli. Lakes with fountains had a higher oxygen concentration during summer and contained consistently less E. coli. We conclude that solar irradiation in synergy with pH and dissolved oxygen is the primary control mechanism for E. coli in study lakes, and that fountains help control abundance of fecal bacteria within these systems.

Intra-seasonal variability of extreme boreal stratospheric polar vortex events and their precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz-Durán, Adelaida; Serrano, Encarna; Ayarzagüena, Blanca; Abalos, Marta; de la Cámara, Alvaro

2017-11-01

The dynamical variability of the boreal stratospheric polar vortex has been usually analysed considering the extended winter as a whole or only focusing on December, January and February. Yet recent studies have found intra-seasonal differences in the boreal stratospheric dynamics. In this study, the intra-seasonal variability of anomalous wave activity preceding polar vortex extremes in the Northern Hemisphere is examined using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Weak (WPV) and strong (SPV) polar vortex events are grouped into early, mid- or late winter sub-periods depending on the onset date. Overall, the strongest (weakest) wave-activity anomalies preceding polar vortex extremes are found in mid- (early) winter. Most of WPV (SPV) events in early winter occur under the influence of east (west) phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and an enhancement (inhibition) of wavenumber-1 wave activity (WN1). Mid- and late winter WPV events are preceded by a strong vortex and an enhancement of WN1 and WN2, but the spatial structure of the anomalous wave activity and the phase of the QBO are different. Prior to mid-winter WPVs the enhancement of WN2 is related to the predominance of La Niña and linked to blockings over Siberia. Mid-winter SPV events show a negative phase of the Pacific-North America pattern that inhibits WN1 injected into the stratosphere. This study suggests that dynamical features preceding extreme polar vortex events in mid-winter should not be generalized to other winter sub-periods.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Atmospheric deposition of trace elements at urban and forest sites in central Poland - Insight into seasonal variability and sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siudek, Patrycja; Frankowski, Marcin

2017-12-01

This paper includes the results of chemical composition of bulk deposition samples collected simultaneously at urban (Poznań city) and forest (Jeziory) sites in central Poland, between April 2013 and October 2014. Rainwater samples were analyzed for trace elements (As, Zn, Ni, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd) and physicochemical parameters. Overall, three metals, i.e. Zn, Pb and Cu were the most abundant anthropogenic constituents of rainwater samples from both locations. In Poznań city, the rainwater concentrations of trace elements did not differ significantly between spring and summer. However, they were elevated and more variable during the cold season (fall and winter), suggesting strong contribution from local high-temperature processes related to coal combustion (commercial and residential sector). In contrast to the urban site, relatively low variability in concentrations was found for Cu, Ni, Zn at the forest site, where direct impact of emission from vehicle traffic and coal-fired combustion (power plants) was much lower. The bulk deposition fluxes of Ni, As, Pb and Zn at this site exhibited a clear trend, with higher values during the cold season (fall and winter) than in spring and summer. At the urban site, the sums of total bulk deposition fluxes of Zn, Cu, Pb, Ni, As, Cr, Cd were as follows: 8460.4, 4209.2, 2247.4, 1882.1, 606.6, 281.6 and 31.4 μg m- 2. In addition, during the winter season, a significantly higher deposition fluxes of Cu and Zn were observed for rain (on average 103.8 and 129.4 μg m- 2, respectively) as compared to snow (19.7 μg Cu m- 2 and 54.1 μg Zn m- 2). This suggests that different deposition pattern of trace elements for rain, mixed and snow was probably the effect of several factors: precipitation type, changes in emission and favorable meteorological situation during rain events.

IUE observations of variability in winds from hot stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, C. A.; Snow, T. P., Jr.

1981-01-01

Observations of variability in stellar winds or envelopes provide an important probe of their dynamics. For this purpose a number of O, B, Be, and Wolf-Rayet stars were repeatedly observed with the IUE satellite in high resolution mode. In the course of analysis, instrumental and data handling effects were found to introduce spurious variability in many of the spectra. software was developed to partially compensate for these effects, but limitations remain on the type of variability that can be identified from IUE spectra. With these contraints, preliminary results of multiple observations of two OB stars, one Wolf-Rayet star, and a Be star are discussed.

Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges.

PubMed

Mellin, C; Mouillot, D; Kulbicki, M; McClanahan, T R; Vigliola, L; Bradshaw, C J A; Brainard, R E; Chabanet, P; Edgar, G J; Fordham, D A; Friedlander, A M; Parravicini, V; Sequeira, A M M; Stuart-Smith, R D; Wantiez, L; Caley, M J

2016-02-03

Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.

Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges

PubMed Central

Mellin, C.; Mouillot, D.; Kulbicki, M.; McClanahan, T. R.; Vigliola, L.; Bradshaw, C. J. A.; Brainard, R. E.; Chabanet, P.; Edgar, G. J.; Fordham, D. A.; Friedlander, A. M.; Parravicini, V.; Sequeira, A. M. M.; Stuart-Smith, R. D.; Wantiez, L.; Caley, M. J.

2016-01-01

Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions. PMID:26839155

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Seasonal variation in sports participation.

PubMed

Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

2018-02-01

This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

Effects of seasonal operation on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, Laura M.; Jurgens, Bryant C.

2014-01-01

Seasonal variability in groundwater pumping is common in many places, but resulting effects of seasonal pumping stress on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells are not thoroughly understood. Analysis of historical water-quality samples from public-supply wells completed in deep basin-fill aquifers in Modesto, California (134 wells) and Albuquerque, New Mexico (95 wells) indicates that several wells have seasonal variability in concentrations of contaminants of concern. In Modesto, supply wells are more likely to produce younger groundwater with higher nitrate and uranium concentrations during the summer (high) pumping season than during the winter (low) pumping season. In Albuquerque, supply wells are more likely to produce older groundwater with higher arsenic concentrations during the winter pumping season than during the summer pumping season. Seasonal variability in contaminant concentrations in Modesto is influenced primarily by effects of summer pumping on vertical hydraulic gradients that drive migration of shallow groundwater through the aquifer to supply wells. Variability in Albuquerque is influenced primarily by the period of time that a supply well is idle, allowing its wellbore to act as a conduit for vertical groundwater flow and contaminant migration. However, both processes are observed in each study area. Similar findings would appear to be likely in other alluvial basins with stratified water quality and substantial vertical head gradients. Results suggest that even in aquifers dominated by old groundwater, changes to seasonal pumping patterns and/or to depth of well completion can help reduce vulnerability to selected contaminants of either natural or anthropogenic origin.

Effects of Seasonal Operation on the Quality of Water Produced by Public-Supply Wells

PubMed Central

Bexfield, Laura M; Jurgens, Bryant C

2014-01-01

Seasonal variability in groundwater pumping is common in many places, but resulting effects of seasonal pumping stress on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells are not thoroughly understood. Analysis of historical water-quality samples from public-supply wells completed in deep basin-fill aquifers in Modesto, California (134 wells) and Albuquerque, New Mexico (95 wells) indicates that several wells have seasonal variability in concentrations of contaminants of concern. In Modesto, supply wells are more likely to produce younger groundwater with higher nitrate and uranium concentrations during the summer (high) pumping season than during the winter (low) pumping season. In Albuquerque, supply wells are more likely to produce older groundwater with higher arsenic concentrations during the winter pumping season than during the summer pumping season. Seasonal variability in contaminant concentrations in Modesto is influenced primarily by effects of summer pumping on vertical hydraulic gradients that drive migration of shallow groundwater through the aquifer to supply wells. Variability in Albuquerque is influenced primarily by the period of time that a supply well is idle, allowing its wellbore to act as a conduit for vertical groundwater flow and contaminant migration. However, both processes are observed in each study area. Similar findings would appear to be likely in other alluvial basins with stratified water quality and substantial vertical head gradients. Results suggest that even in aquifers dominated by old groundwater, changes to seasonal pumping patterns and/or to depth of well completion can help reduce vulnerability to selected contaminants of either natural or anthropogenic origin. PMID:24593780

Seasonal variability of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in a wetland system of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, southwest China: a quantitative assessment of groundwater inflow fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xingxing; Wu, Pan; Zhou, Shaoqi; Han, Zhiwei; Tu, Han; Zhang, Shui

2018-02-01

The Caohai Wetland serves as an important ecosystem on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and as a nationally important nature reserve for migratory birds in China. In this study, surface water, groundwater and wetland water were collected for the measurement of environmental isotopes to reveal the seasonal variability of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes (δ18O, δD), sources of water, and groundwater inflow fluxes. Results showed that surface water and groundwater are of meteoric origin. The isotopes in samples of wetland water were well mixed vertically in seasons of both high-flow (September) and low-flow (April); however, marked seasonal and spatial variations were observed. During the high-flow season, the isotopic composition in surface wetland water varied from -97.13 to -41.73‰ for δD and from -13.17 to -4.70‰ for δ18O. The composition of stable isotopes in the eastern region of this wetland was lower than in the western region. These may have been influenced by uneven evaporation caused by the distribution of aquatic vegetation. During the low-flow season, δD and δ18O in the more open water with dead aquatic vegetation ranged from -37.11 to -11.77‰, and from -4.25 to -0.08‰, respectively. This may result from high evaporation rates in this season with the lowest atmospheric humidity. Groundwater fluxes were calculated by mass transfer and isotope mass balance approaches, suggesting that the water sources of the Caohai Wetland were mainly from groundwater in the high-flow season, while the groundwater has a smaller contribution to wetland water during the low-flow season.

A numerical study on the seasonal variability of polychlorinated biphenyls from the atmosphere in the East China Sea.

PubMed

Ono, Jun; Takahashi, Daisuke; Guo, Xinyu; Takahashi, Shin; Takeoka, Hidetaka

2012-10-01

A three-dimensional/high-resolution transport model for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has been developed for the East China Sea (ECS). The POPs model has four compartments (gaseous, dissolved, phytoplankton-bound, and detritus-bound phases) and includes processes for diffusive air-water exchange, phytoplankton uptake/depuration to POPs, decomposition of dissolved phase, vertical sinking of phytoplankton, detritus production by phytoplankton mortality, and vertical sinking and decomposition of detritus. The POPs model is coupled with an ocean circulation model that can reproduce the seasonal variation in physical variables to represent the advection and diffusion of POPs. We applied the POPs model to the polychlorinated biphenyl congener 153 (PCB 153) from the atmosphere and examined the behavior of PCB 153 in the ocean. The model showed a remarkable seasonal variability of PCB 153. Concentrations in the dissolved and particulate phases are high in winter (January-March) and low in summer (July-September). In coastal regions, where chlorophyll a concentration is high, horizontal and vertical distributions in the dissolved and particulate PCB 153 concentrations are strongly affected by phytoplankton uptake. The sensitivity experiments on the dynamics of PCB 153 suggested that a change of Henry's law constant associated with water temperature is the major factor controlling the seasonal variability of PCB 153. The model-based yearly mass balance of PCB 153 in the ECS indicated that most of the atmospheric input (35.5 kg year(-1)) is removed by the horizontal advection outside the ECS (19.0 kg year(-1)) and accumulates to the sea bottom by vertical sinking (15.7 kg year(-1)). For comparison with PCB 153, we also conducted simulations for PCB 52, 101, and 180. The seasonal variations are similar to that of PCB 153. The mass balance of PCB 52 that has short half-life time and less hydrophobic property shows the different results compared with PCB 101, 153, and 180

Cold season Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern and its relation to the Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Ze

2017-06-01

A prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by an eastward propagating wave train with a zonal wavenumber of 5-6 between 20° and 40°N, extending from the northwest coast of Africa to East Asia, and thus is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). One-point correlation maps show that the teleconnectivity of AAMT is strong and further demonstrate the existence of the AAMT. The AAMT shapes the spatial structure of multidecadal change in atmospheric circulation over the NA-EA region, and in particular the AAMT pattern and associated fields show similar structures to the change occurring around the early 1960s. A strong in-phase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. Barotropic modeling results suggest that the upper-level Rossby wave source generated by the AMV can excite the AAMT wave train, and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis further highlights the role of the Asian jet stream in guiding the wave train to East Asia. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability. The AMV is closely related to the coordinated change in surface and tropospheric air temperatures over Northwest Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Central China, which may result from the adiabatic expansion/compression of air associated with the AAMT.

Seasonal variability of suspended sediment transport in the Seine river catchment area (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Christine; Baati, Selma; Ayrault, Sophie; Bonte, Philippe; Evrard, Olivier; Kissel, Catherine

2010-05-01

This study consists in an innovative application of environmental physico-chemical techniques on fluvial sediments with the aim to trace the seasonal changes in suspended sediment transport of the complex Seine river catchment area in northern France. The aim of this project is to develop a detailed understanding for the discrimination of naturally triggered and anthropogenic induced processes and their temporal changes with weather conditions. With a focus on the heavy metal fraction, we determine the regional distribution of the suspended material and search for environmental fingerprints demonstrating the influence of fluvial transport mechanisms, changes in concentration related to discharge variations or different sediment sources, and in-situ alteration caused by variations in the geochemical conditions (oxy-redox, pH, Eh, etc.). To achieve these goals, we apply a combination of straightforward rock magnetic hysteresis measurements (performed using an AGM2900 at the LSCE) and advanced scanning electron microscopy analyses (SEM). This interdisciplinary approach allows refining the detailed analysis of sediment trap samples, originating from Tessier et al. (2003), as recently shown by Franke et al. (2009). In our preliminary results, we observe a general increase in magnetic concentrations from summer to winter conditions, coupled with a magneto-mineralogic change to rather reduced metallic mineral phases. However, each riversection of the Seine system shows its specific trend line depending on the regional initial input, weathering conditions, drainage area and potential pollution sources. A systematic analysis of the detailed results will allow highlighting the climatic/seasonal influence on the metallic particle assembly. Keywords: Seine river system, environmental magnetism, suspended particulate matter, anthropogenic and natural input, magnetic hysteresis, scanning electron microscopy (SEM),, heavy metal pollution, seasonal variability References: Franke

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

PubMed Central

Wallace, John M.; Fu, Qiang; Smoliak, Brian V.; Lin, Pu; Johanson, Celeste M.

2012-01-01

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. PMID:22847408

Seasonal southern hemisphere multi-variable reflection of the southern annular mode in atmosphere and ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhaoru; Uotila, Petteri; Stössel, Achim; Vihma, Timo; Liu, Hailong; Zhong, Yisen

2018-02-01

Variations of southern hemisphere (SH) climate variables are often linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. We examined such linkage by seasons using state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean/sea-ice reanalyses. The associated SAM related anomaly (SRA) fields of the climate variables, denoting anomalies corresponding to the same variation in SAM, are overall consistent across the reanalyses. Among the atmospheric products, 20CRV2 differs from ERA-interim and CFSR in the sea-level pressure SRAs over the Amundsen Sea, resulting in less warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. Among the ocean reanalyses, ORAP5 and C-GLORS exhibit the largest consistency. The major difference between them and the lower-resolution CFSR and SODA reanalyses is deeper penetration of anomalous meridional currents. Compared to the other ocean reanalyses, CFSR exhibits stronger and spatially more coherent surface-current SRAs, resulting in greater SRAs of sea-ice motion and ice thickness along the ice edges. The SRAs of sensible and total surface heat fluxes are reduced in CFSR due to ocean-atmosphere coupling. Significant sea-ice concentration SRAs are present on the west side of peninsulas along the east Antarctica coast in spring and winter, most notably in ORAP5 and C-GLORS, implying changes in new-ice production and shelf-water formation. Most atmosphere and ocean variables manifest an annular SRA pattern in summer and a non-annular pattern in the other seasons, with a wavenumber-3 structure strongest in autumn and weakest in summer. The wavenumber-3 structure should be related to the zonal wave three pattern of the SH circulation, the relation of which to SAM needs further exploration.

O3 variability/trends in the troposphere from IASI observations in 2008-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, C.; Hurtmans, D.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard the Metop satellites during the first ten years of the IASI operation (2008-2017). The instrument provides a unique dataset of vertically-resolved O3 profiles with a twice daily global coverage and a fairly good vertical resolution allowing us to monitor the year-to-year variability in the troposphere. The retrievals are performed using the FORLI software, a fast radiative transfer model based on the optimal estimation method, set up for near real time and large scale processing of IASI data. We differentiate trend characteristics from the seasonal and non-seasonal O3 variations captured by IASI in the troposphere by applying appropriate annual and seasonal multivariate regression models, which include important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. quasi biennial oscillations - QBO, El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) and a linear trend term, on time series of spatially gridded averaged O3. The performances of the regression models (annual vs seasonal) are first investigated. Given the large contribution of the interannual variability, we will then describe the effects of the main contributing O3 proxies (e.g. positive - or negatives - ENSO indexes measured during moderate to intense El Niño - or La Niña - episodes in the tropics) in addition to the adjusted O3 trend patterns. A special focus will be given over the Northern Hemisphere which is characterized by decreasing O3 precursor emissions (mainly over Europe and the US). FORLI O3-CO correlations patterns will also be discussed to evaluate the continental influence on the tropospheric O3 trends.

Reservoirs override seasonal variability of phytoplankton communities in a regulated Mediterranean river.

PubMed

Tornés, E; Pérez, M C; Durán, C; Sabater, S

2014-03-15

Water hydrology, temperature and transparency, as well as nutrient retention downstream of the reservoirs alter the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of phytoplankton communities in regulated rivers. The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton communities in the Ebro was analysed in contrasting water flow periods in sections upstream and downstream of three large reservoirs, as well as in an intermediate site. Phytoplankton communities changed in response to seasonal variations in the areas not influenced by the reservoirs, but the phytoplankton distribution downstream of the reservoirs was driven by their particular hydrodynamics. The change in environmental conditions promoted by reservoirs influenced the pattern of replacement between diatoms and green algae of the upstream section. Differences in the phytoplankton community structure, abundance and environmental variables between upstream and downstream sites were maximal during low flow periods. Chlorophytes and dinoflagellates were present during low flow periods upstream of the reservoirs and in the intermediate site. Cocconeis cf. placentula characterized the downstream section, associated to the presence of macrophytes in that section. The present study sheds light on the consequences of river regulation under potential scenarios of climate change, and results could be used to anticipate ecological problems in large regulated rivers under these circumstances. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Variability of Precipitation Extremes in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanco, W.

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes can have very important impacts, and it is not known as to how precipitation extremes might change with global warming. New York City is located in the mid-latitude region where there are specific storms that can cause precipitation extremes, predominantly, hurricanes, extratropical cyclones, and quasi-linear convective systems. These storms preferentially occur during different seasons. Therefore, to understand how these different storms relate to precipitation extremes, this study examines NYC precipitation extremes per season. First, NOAA weather station data from January 1979 to December 2014 from the three NYC airports (JFK, LaGuardia and Newark) will be analyzed to derive the climatology, the counts of non-rain events, and the counts of extreme precipitation events. Next, a multi-station average will be used to compare the precipitation events that occur in Spring, Summer, and Fall. The precipitation strength will be compared as well as the temperature anomalies for each season. Then, using reanalysis, composites of the sea level pressure and temperature fields will be calculated for the top events from each season.