The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai‘i

Treesearch

Abby G. Frazier; Oliver Elison Timm; Thomas W. Giambelluca; Henry F. Diaz

2017-01-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai‘i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for...

Secular resonances. [of asteroidal dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholl, H.; Froeschle, CH.; Kinoshita, H.; Yoshikawa, M.; Williams, J. G.

1989-01-01

Theories and numerical experiments regarding secular resonances are reviewed. The basic dynamics and the positions of secular resonances are discussed, and secular perturbation theories for the nu16 resonance case, the nu6 resonance, and the nu5 resonance are addressed. What numerical experiments have revealed about asteroids located in secular resonances, the stability of secular resonances, variations of eccentricities and inclinations, and chaotic orbits is considered. Resonant transport of meteorites is discussed.

Saturn's very axisymmetric magnetic field: No detectable secular variation or tilt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hao; Russell, Christopher T.; Christensen, Ulrich R.; Dougherty, Michele K.; Burton, Marcia E.

2011-04-01

Saturn is the only planet in the solar system whose observed magnetic field is highly axisymmetric. At least a small deviation from perfect symmetry is required for a dynamo-generated magnetic field. Analyzing more than six years of magnetometer data obtained by Cassini close to the planet, we show that Saturn's observed field is much more axisymmetric than previously thought. We invert the magnetometer observations that were obtained in the "current-free" inner magnetosphere for an internal model, varying the assumed unknown rotation rate of Saturn's deep interior. No unambiguous non-axially symmetric magnetic moment is detected, with a new upper bound on the dipole tilt of 0.06°. An axisymmetric internal model with Schmidt-normalized spherical harmonic coefficients g10 = 21,191 ± 24 nT, g20 = 1586 ± 7 nT. g30 = 2374 ± 47 nT is derived from these measurements, the upper bounds on the axial degree 4 and 5 terms are 720 nT and 3200 nT respectively. The secular variation for the last 30 years is within the probable error of each term from degree 1 to 3, and the upper bounds are an order of magnitude smaller than in similar terrestrial terms for degrees 1 and 2. Differentially rotating conducting stable layers above Saturn's dynamo region have been proposed to symmetrize the magnetic field (Stevenson, 1982). The new upper bound on the dipole tilt implies that this stable layer must have a thickness L >= 4000 km, and this thickness is consistent with our weak secular variation observations.

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential and their implications for mantle viscosity and Antarctic melting history due to the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

2017-06-01

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential based on the satellite laser ranging observations, {\\dot{J}_n}, contain important information about the Earth's deformation due to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and recent melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Here, we examine the GIA-induced {\\dot{J}_n}, \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} (2 ≤ n ≤ 6), derived from the available geopotential zonal secular rate and recent melting taken from the IPCC 2013 Report (AR5) to explore the possibility of additional information on the depth-dependent lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model inferred from the analyses of the \\dot{J}_2^{GIA} and relative sea level changes. The sensitivities of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} to lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model with a global averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) of ∼130 m indicate that the secular rates for n = 3 and 4 are mainly caused by the viscous response of the lower mantle to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet regardless of GIA ice models adopted in this study. Also, the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} based on the available geopotential zonal secular rates indicate that permissible lower-mantle viscosity structure satisfying even zonal secular rates of n = 2, 4 and 6 is obtained for the GIA ice model with an Antarctic ESL component of ∼20 or ∼30 m, but there is no viscosity solution satisfying \\dot{J}_3^{GIA} and \\dot{J}_5^{GIA} values. Moreover, the inference model for the lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model from each odd zonal secular rate is distinctly different from that satisfying GIA-induced even zonal secular rate. The discrepancy between the inference models for the even and odd zonal secular rates may partly be attributed to uncertainties of the geopotential zonal secular rates for n > 2 and particularly those for odd zonal secular rates due to weakness in the orbital geometry. If this problem is overcome at least for the secular rates of n < 5, then the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} would make it possible to put more convincing constraints on the lower-mantle viscosity structure and GIA ice model, particularly for the controversial Antarctic melting history in GIA community.

Periodic Variations in the O - C Diagrams of Five Pulsation Frequencies of the DB White Dwarf EC 20058-5234

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalessio, J.; Sullivan, D. J.; Provencal, J. L.; Shipman, H. L.; Sullivan, T.; Kilkenny, D.; Fraga, L.; Sefako, R.

2013-03-01

Variations in the pulsation arrival time of five independent pulsation frequencies of the DB white dwarf EC 20058-5234 individually imitate the effects of reflex motion induced by a planet or companion but are inconsistent when considered in unison. The pulsation frequencies vary periodically in a 12.9 year cycle and undergo secular changes that are inconsistent with simple neutrino plus photon-cooling models. The magnitude of the periodic and secular variations increases with the period of the pulsations, possibly hinting that the corresponding physical mechanism is located near the surface of the star. The phase of the periodic variations appears coupled to the sign of the secular variations. The standards for pulsation-timing-based detection of planetary companions around pulsating white dwarfs, and possibly other variables such as subdwarf B stars, should be re-evaluated. The physical mechanism responsible for this surprising result may involve a redistribution of angular momentum or a magnetic cycle. Additionally, variations in a supposed combination frequency are shown to match the sum of the variations of the parent frequencies to remarkable precision, an expected but unprecedented confirmation of theoretical predictions. Based on observations obtained at the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope, which is a joint project of the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, e Inovação (MCTI) da República Federativa do Brasil, the US National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), and Michigan State University (MSU).

Localized sudden changes in the geomagnetic secular variation.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alldredge, L.R.

1987-01-01

There is much debate as to whether there was a worldwide geomagnetic jerk in 1969 or 1970. It is agreed that there was an unusual sharp change in the secular variation in the east component, Y, in Europe at that time. This note points out how a localized sudden change in the secular variation pattern of one component in Europe can occur without having any large worldwide effects in any of the components. The accompanying changes in the spherical harmonic coefficients for such a localized change are also discussed. -after Author

Time-causal decomposition of geomagnetic time series into secular variation, solar quiet, and disturbance signals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigler, E. Joshua

2017-04-26

A theoretical basis and prototype numerical algorithm are provided that decompose regular time series of geomagnetic observations into three components: secular variation; solar quiet, and disturbance. Respectively, these three components correspond roughly to slow changes in the Earth’s internal magnetic field, periodic daily variations caused by quasi-stationary (with respect to the sun) electrical current systems in the Earth’s magnetosphere, and episodic perturbations to the geomagnetic baseline that are typically driven by fluctuations in a solar wind that interacts electromagnetically with the Earth’s magnetosphere. In contrast to similar algorithms applied to geomagnetic data in the past, this one addresses the issue of real time data acquisition directly by applying a time-causal, exponential smoother with “seasonal corrections” to the data as soon as they become available.

Archaeomagnetic secular variation in the UK during the past 4000 years and its application to archaeomagnetic dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zananiri, I.; Batt, C. M.; Lanos, Ph.; Tarling, D. H.; Linford, P.

2007-02-01

This paper examines the limitations and deficiencies of the current British archaeomagnetic calibration curve and applies several mathematical approaches in an attempt to produce an improved secular variation curve for the UK for use in archaeomagnetic dating. The dataset compiled is the most complete available in the UK, incorporating published results, PhD theses and unpublished laboratory reports. It comprises 620 archaeomagnetic (directional) data and 238 direct observations of the geomagnetic field, and includes all relevant information available about the site, the archaeomagnetic direction and the archaeological age. A thorough examination of the data was performed to assess their quality and reliability. Various techniques were employed in order to use the data to construct a secular variation (SV) record: moving window with averaging and median, as well as Bayesian statistical modelling. The SV reference curve obtained for the past 4000 years is very similar to that from France, most differences occurring during the early medieval period (or Dark Ages). Two examples of dating of archaeological structures, medieval and pre-Roman, are presented based on the new SV curve for the UK and the implications for archaeomagnetic dating are discussed.

A Statistical Model of the Fluctuations in the Geomagnetic Field from Paleosecular Variation to Reversal

PubMed

Camps; Prevot

1996-08-09

The statistical characteristics of the local magnetic field of Earth during paleosecular variation, excursions, and reversals are described on the basis of a database that gathers the cleaned mean direction and average remanent intensity of 2741 lava flows that have erupted over the last 20 million years. A model consisting of a normally distributed axial dipole component plus an independent isotropic set of vectors with a Maxwellian distribution that simulates secular variation fits the range of geomagnetic fluctuations, in terms of both direction and intensity. This result suggests that the magnitude of secular variation vectors is independent of the magnitude of Earth's axial dipole moment and that the amplitude of secular variation is unchanged during reversals.

Magnetic Navigation in Sea Turtles: Insights from Secular Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putman, N. F.; Lohmann, K.

2011-12-01

Sea turtles are iconic migrants that posses a sensitive magnetic-sense that guides their long-distance movements in a variety of contexts. In the first few hours after hatching turtles use the magnetic field to maintain an offshore compass heading to reach deeper water, out of the reach of nearshore predators. Young turtles engage in directed swimming in response to regional magnetic fields that exist along their transoceanic migratory path. Older turtles also use magnetic information to relocate foraging sites and islands used for nesting after displacement. Numerous hypotheses have been put forth to explain how magnetic information functions in these movements, however, there is little consensus among animal navigation researchers. A particular vexing issue is how magnetic navigation can function under the constraints of the constant, gradual shifting of the earth's magnetic field (secular variation). Here, I present a framework based on models of recent geomagnetic secular variation to explore several navigational mechanisms proposed for sea turtles. I show that while examination of secular variation likely falsifies some hypothetical navigational strategies, it provides key insights into the selective pressures that could maintain other navigational mechanisms. Moreover, examination of secular variation's influence on the navigational precision in reproductive migrations of sea turtles offers compelling explanations for the population structure along sea turtle nesting beaches as well as spatiotemporal variation in nesting turtle abundance.

Geomagnetic field models incorporating physical constraints on the secular variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Constable, Catherine; Parker, Robert L.

1993-01-01

This proposal has been concerned with methods for constructing geomagnetic field models that incorporate physical constraints on the secular variation. The principle goal that has been accomplished is the development of flexible algorithms designed to test whether the frozen flux approximation is adequate to describe the available geomagnetic data and their secular variation throughout this century. These have been applied to geomagnetic data from both the early and middle part of this century and convincingly demonstrate that there is no need to invoke violations of the frozen flux hypothesis in order to satisfy the available geomagnetic data.

The Light-time Effect in the Eclipsing Binaries with Early-type Components U CrB and RW Tau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaliullina, A. I.

2018-04-01

A detailed study of the orbital-period variations of the Algol-type eclipsing binaries with earlyspectral- type primary components U CrB and RW Tau has been performed. The period variations in both systems can be described as a superposition of secular and cyclic variations of the period. A secular period increase at a rate of 2.58d × 10-7/year is observed for U CrB, which can be explained if there is a uniform flow of matter from the lower-mass to the higher-mass component, with the total angular momentum conserved. RW Tau features a secular period decrease at a rate of -8.6d × 10-7/year; this could be due to a loss of angular momentum by the binary due to magnetic braking. The cyclic orbital-period variations of U CrB and RWTau can be explained by the motion of the eclipsing binary systems along their long-period orbits. In U CrB, this implies that the eclipsing binary moves with a period of 91.3 years around a third body with mass M 3 > 1.13 M ⊙; in RW Tau, the period of the motion around the third body is 66.6 years, and the mass of the third body is M 3 > 1.24 M ⊙. It also cannot be ruled out that the variations are due to the magnetic cycles of the late-type secondaries. The residual period variations could be a superposition of variations due to non-stationary ejection of matter and effects due to magnetic cycles.

Spectroscopic monitoring of SS 433: A search for long-term variations of kinematic model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davydov, V. V.; Esipov, V. F.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.

2008-06-01

Between 1994 and 2006, we obtained uniform spectroscopic observations of SS 433 in the region of H α. We determined Doppler shifts of the moving emission lines, H α + and H α -, and studied various irregularities in the profiles for the moving emission lines. The total number of Doppler shifts measured in these 13 years is 488 for H α - and 389 for H α +. We have also used published data to study possible long-term variations of the SS 433 system, based on 755 Doppler shifts for H α - and 630 for H α + obtained over 28 years. We have derived improved kinematic model parameters for the precessing relativistic jets of S S 433 using five-and eight-parameter models. On average, the precession period was stable during the 28 years of observations (60 precession cycles), at 162.250d ± 0.003d. Phase jumps of the precession period and random variations of its length with amplitudes of ≈6% and ≈1%, respectively, were observed, but no secular changes in the precession period were detected. The nutation period, P nut = 6.2876d ± 0.00035d, and its phase were stable during 28 years (more than 1600 nutation cycles). We find no secular variations of the nutation cycle. The ejection speed of the relativistic jets, v, was, on average, constant during the 28 years, β = v/c = 0.2561 ± 0.0157. No secular variation of β is detected. In general, S S 433 demonstrates remarkably stable long-term characteristics of its precession and nutation, as well as of the central “engine” near the relativistic object that collimates the plasma in the jets and accelerates it to v = 0.2561 c. Our results support a model with a “slaved” accretion disk in S S 433, which follows the precession of the optical star’s rotation axis.

Geomagnetic temporal change: 1903-1982 - A spline representation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langel, R. A.; Kerridge, D. J.; Barraclough, D. R.; Malin, S. R. C.

1986-01-01

The secular variation of the earth's magnetic field is itself subject to temporal variations. These are investigated with the aid of the coefficients of a series of spherical harmonic models of secular variation deduced from data for the interval 1903-1982 from the worldwide network of magnetic observatories. For some studies it is convenient to approximate the time variation of the spherical harmonic coefficients with a smooth, continuous, function; for this a spline fitting is used. The phenomena that are investigated include periodicities, discontinuities, and correlation with the length of day. The numerical data presented will be of use for further investigations and for the synthesis of secular variation at any place and at any time within the interval of the data - they are not appropriate for temporal extrapolations.

Main field and secular variation modeling with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program magnetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alken, P.; Olsen, N.; Finlay, C. C.; Chulliat, A.

2017-12-01

In order to investigate the spatial structure and development of rapid (sub-decadal) changes in the geomagnetic core field, including its secular variation and acceleration, global magnetic measurements from space play a crucial role. With the end of the CHAMP mission in September 2010, there has been a gap in high-quality satellite magnetic field measurements until the Swarm mission was launched in November 2013. Geomagnetic main field models during this period have relied on the global ground observatory network which, due to its sparse spatial configuration, has difficulty in resolving secular variation and acceleration at higher spherical harmonic degrees. In this presentation we will show new results in building main field models during this "gap period", based on vector magnetic measurements from four Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. While the fluxgate instruments onboard DMSP were not designed for high-quality core field modeling, we find that the DMSP dataset can provide valuable information on secular variation and acceleration during the gap period.

Secular Acceleration of Barnard's Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Jennifer L.; Ianna, P. A.

2009-01-01

Barnard's Star should have significant secular acceleration because it lies close to the Sun and has the highest known proper motion along with a large radial velocity. It will pass within about 1.4 pc in another 9,750 years. Secular changes in proper motion and radial velocity are essentially the Coriolis and centrifugal accelerations, respectively, arising from use of a rotating coordinate system defined by the Sun-star radius vector. Although stellar space velocities measured with respect to the Sun are essentially constant, these perspective effects arise with changing distance and viewing angle. Hipparcos-2 plus Nidever et al. (2002) predict a perspective change in the proper motion of 1.285±0.006 mas yr-2 for Barnard's Star. Recent analysis of 900+ photographic plates between 1968 and 1998 with the 26.25-in (0.67-m) McCormick refractor detected a secular acceleration of 1.25±0.04 mas yr-2, which agrees with the predicted value within the measurement errors. Earlier, Benedict et al. (1999) measured its secular acceleration to be 1.2±0.2 mas yr-2 using 3 years of HST FGS observations. Similarly, a perspective change in radial velocity of 4.50±0.01 m s-1 yr-1 can be predicted for Barnard's Star. Kürster et al. (2003) detected variations in their observations of it that are largely attributable to secular acceleration along the line of sight with some contribution from stellar activity. Although secular acceleration effects have been limited for past studies of stellar motions, they can be significant for observations extending over decades or for high-precision measurements required to detect extrasolar planets. Future studies will need to consider this factor for the nearest stars and for those with large proper motions or radial velocities. NSF grant AST 98-20711; Litton Marine Systems; Peninsula Community Foundation Levinson Fund; UVa Governor's Fellowship, Dean's F&A Fellowship, and Graduate School of Arts and Sciences; and, US Naval Observatory supported this research.

Relative secular variations of the geomagnetic field along the Zgorzelec-Wiżajny profile, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wojas, Anna; Grabowska, Teresa; Mikołajczak, Mateusz

2018-03-01

The paper presents results of the study on relative secular variations of total magnetic intensity (TMI) of the geomagnetic field along the 700 km long profile crossing the area of Poland. Surveys were carried out at annual intervals between 1966 and 2016 (50 measurement series), in 31 survey sites (secular points) separated by about 22 km. The studied profile of the SW-NE direction, called Zgorzelec-Wiżajny (Z-W), crosses large parts of the main tectonic units of Europe, namely the Palaeozoic Platform of Central and Western Europe (PLZ) and the East European Craton (EEC), connected by the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone (TTZ). Using the original methodology of analysis of measured data, reduced to the values of geomagnetic field recorded at the Central Geophysical Observatory in Belsk, the relative secular variations of TMI with the magnetic anomalies (ΔT) and the terrestrial heat flow density (Q) were graphically presented.

Transit Duration Variations due to Secular Interactions in Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boley, Aaron; Van Laerhoven, Christa; Granados Contreras, A. Paula

2018-04-01

Secular interactions among planets in multi-planet systems will lead to variations in orbital inclinations and to the precession of orbital nodes. Taking known system architectures at face value, we calculate orbital precession rates for planets in tightly-packed systems using classical second-order secular theory, in which the orientation of the orbits can be described as a vector sum of eigenmodes and the eigenstructure is determined only by the masses and semi-major axes of the planets. Using this framework, we identify systems that have fast precession frequencies, and use those systems to explore the range of transit duration variation that could occur using amplitudes that are consistent with tightly-packed planetary systems. We then further assess how transit duration variations could be used in practice.

Present-day secular variations in the zonal harmonics of earth's geopotential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Peltier, W. R.

1993-01-01

The mathematical formulation required for predicting secular variation in the geopotential is developed for the case of a spherically symmetric, self-gravitating, viscoelastic earth model and an arbitrary surface load which can include a gravitational self-consistent ocean loading component. The theory is specifically applied to predict the present-day secular variation in the zonal harmonics of the geopotenial arising from the surface mass loading associated with the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. A procedure is outlined in which predictions of the present-day geopotential signal due to the late Pleistocene glacial cycles may be used to derive bounds on the net present-day mass flux from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to the local oceans.

Accounting for magnetic diffusion in core flow inversions from geomagnetic secular variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amit, Hagay; Christensen, Ulrich R.

2008-12-01

We use numerical dynamos to investigate the possible role of magnetic diffusion at the top of the core. We find that the contribution of radial magnetic diffusion to the secular variation is correlated with that of tangential magnetic diffusion for a wide range of control parameters. The correlation between the two diffusive terms is interpreted in terms of the variation in the strength of poloidal flow along a columnar flow tube. The amplitude ratio of the two diffusive terms is used to estimate the probable contribution of radial magnetic diffusion to the secular variation at Earth-like conditions. We then apply a model where radial magnetic diffusion is proportional to tangential diffusion to core flow inversions of geomagnetic secular variation data. We find that including magnetic diffusion does not change dramatically the global flow but some significant local variations appear. In the non frozen-flux core flow models (termed `diffusive'), the hemispherical dichotomy between the active Atlantic and quiet Pacific is weaker, a cyclonic vortex below North America emerges and the vortex below Asia is stronger. Our results have several important geophysical implications. First, our diffusive flow models contain some flow activity at low latitudes in the Pacific, suggesting a local balance between magnetic field advection and diffusion in that region. Second, the cyclone below North America in our diffusive flows reconciles the difference between mantle-driven thermal wind predictions and frozen-flux core flow models, and is consistent with the prominent intense magnetic flux patch below North America in geomagnetic field models. Finally, we hypothesize that magnetic diffusion near the core surface plays a larger role in the geomagnetic secular variation than usually assumed.

Equatorial E region electric fields at the dip equator: 2. Seasonal variabilities and effects over Brazil due to the secular variation of the magnetic equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moro, J.; Denardini, C. M.; Resende, L. C. A.; Chen, S. S.; Schuch, N. J.

2016-10-01

In this work, the seasonal dependency of the E region electric field (EEF) at the dip equator is examined. The eastward zonal (Ey) and the daytime vertical (Ez) electric fields are responsible for the overall phenomenology of the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere, including the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and its plasma instability. The electric field components are studied based on long-term backscatter radars soundings (348 days for both systems) collected during geomagnetic quiet days (Kp ≤ 3+), from 2001 to 2010, at the São Luís Space Observatory (SLZ), Brazil (2.33°S, 44.20°W), and at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory (JRO), Peru (11.95°S, 76.87°W). Among the results, we observe, for the first time, a seasonal difference between the EEF in these two sectors in South America based on coherent radar measurements. The EEF is more intense in summer at SLZ, in equinox at JRO, and has been highly variable with season in the Brazilian sector compared to the Peruvian sector. In addition, the secular variation on the geomagnetic field and its effect on the EEJ over Brazil resulted that as much farther away is the magnetic equator from SLZ, later more the EEJ is observed (10 h LT) and sooner it ends (16 h LT). Moreover, the time interval of type II occurrence decreased significantly after the year 2004, which is a clear indication that SLZ is no longer an equatorial station due to the secular variation of the geomagnetic field.

Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations in TWS and GWS in Michigan's Lower Peninsula and Identification of the Controlling Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahour, H.; Sultan, M.; Fathy, K.; Yellich, J. A.; Karki, S.; Wireman, M.

2017-12-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been successfully used to track changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and ground water storage (GWS) across the globe. We use GRACE RL05 monthly mascon solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and outputs of the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) to investigate/extract: (1) secular trends in TWS over the entire landscape of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan throughout the GRACE operational period (2002 to 2016), (2) secular trends in GWS using the extracted TWS trends and GLDAS outputs (soil moisture, canopy water storage, surface runoff and snow water equivalent), and (3) the major natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the observed TWS and GWS variations. The extracted TWS and GWS trends were downscaled from 1º x 1º to 0.25º x 0.25º (local county scale) using logistical regression techniques. Findings include: (1) in the central and northern sections of the Lower Peninsula (43.06 °N to 45.77 °N ) the secular trends in TWS reveal two general patterns a near-steady state to modest increase in TWS (0.3 to 0.8 mm/year) for the period 2002 to 2011 (hereafter referred to as the early period [EP]), followed by an increase in TWS (9.6 to 13.8 mm/year) for the period 2012 to 2016 (hereafter referred to as the late period [LP]). (2) Similar trends for TWS were observed for the southern sections of the Lower Peninsula (41.76 °N to 43.06 °N); a near-steady to a slight increase during the EP (0.6 to 0.8 mm/year), yet a less pronounced increase was detected during the LP (4.8 to7.2 mm/year). (3) The GWS secular trends over northern and central parts of the Lower Peninsula on one hand and those for the southern sections follow the general observed patterns for the TWS throughout the EP and LP. Research is underway to accomplish the following: (1) correlate spatially and temporarily the observed variations in TWS and GWS with variations in other relevant datasets including snowfall, precipitation, land surface temperature, groundwater extraction, and groundwater levels in search for causal effects, and (2) refine our preliminary downscaling attempts by including in our logistical regression analysis as many of the relevant available variables in our analysis (e.g., precipitation, snow fall, snow water equivalent, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI).

The JCMT Transient Survey: Stochastic and Secular Variability of Protostars and Disks In the Submillimeter Region Observed over 18 Months

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnstone, Doug; Herczeg, Gregory J.; Mairs, Steve; Hatchell, Jennifer; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Kirk, Helen; Lane, James; Bell, Graham S.; Graves, Sarah; Aikawa, Yuri; Chen, Huei-Ru Vivien; Chen, Wen-Ping; Kang, Miju; Kang, Sung-Ju; Lee, Jeong-Eun; Morata, Oscar; Pon, Andy; Scicluna, Peter; Scholz, Aleks; Takahashi, Satoko; Yoo, Hyunju; The JCMT Transient Team

2018-02-01

We analyze results from the first 18 months of monthly submillimeter monitoring of eight star-forming regions in the JCMT Transient Survey. In our search for stochastic variability in 1643 bright peaks, only the previously identified source, EC 53, shows behavior well above the expected measurement uncertainty. Another four sources—two disks and two protostars—show moderately enhanced standard deviations in brightness, as expected for stochastic variables. For the two protostars, this apparent variability is the result of single epochs that are much brighter than the mean. In our search for secular brightness variations that are linear in time, we measure the fractional brightness change per year for 150 bright peaks, 50 of which are protostellar. The ensemble distribution of slopes is well fit by a normal distribution with σ ∼ 0.023. Most sources are not rapidly brightening or fading at submillimeter wavelengths. Comparison against time-randomized realizations shows that the width of the distribution is dominated by the uncertainty in the individual brightness measurements of the sources. A toy model for secular variability reveals that an underlying Gaussian distribution of linear fractional brightness change σ = 0.005 would be unobservable in the present sample, whereas an underlying distribution with σ = 0.02 is ruled out. Five protostellar sources, 10% of the protostellar sample, are found to have robust secular measures deviating from a constant flux. The sensitivity to secular brightness variations will improve significantly with a sample over a longer time duration, with an improvement by factor of two expected by the conclusion of our 36 month survey.

Steady induction effects in geomagnetism. Part 1A: Steady motional induction of geomagnetic chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhies, Coerte V.

1992-01-01

Geomagnetic effects of magnetic induction by hypothetically steady fluid motion and steady magnetic flux diffusion near the top of Earth's core are investigated using electromagnetic theory, simple magnetic earth models, and numerical experiments with geomagnetic field models. The problem of estimating a steady fluid velocity field near the top of Earth's core which induces the secular variation indicated by broad-scale models of the observed geomagnetic field is examined and solved. In Part 1, the steady surficial core flow estimation problem is solved in the context of the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core model. In the first paper (IA), the theory underlying such estimates is reviewed and some consequences of various kinematic and dynamic flow hypotheses are derived. For a frozen-flux core, fluid downwelling is required to change the mean square normal magnetic flux density averaged over the core-mantle boundary. For surficially geostrophic flow, downwelling implies poleward flow. The solution of the forward steady motional induction problem at the surface of a frozen-flux core is derived and found to be a fine, easily visualized example of deterministic chaos. Geomagnetic effects of statistically steady core surface flow may well dominate secular variation over several decades. Indeed, effects of persistent, if not steady, surficially geostrophic core flow are described which may help explain certain features of the present broad-scale geomagnetic field and perhaps paleomagnetic secular variation.

Dynamic Responses of the Earth's Outer Core to Assimilation of Observed Geomagnetic Secular Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

2014-01-01

Assimilation of surface geomagnetic observations and geodynamo models has advanced very quickly in recent years. However, compared to advanced data assimilation systems in meteorology, geomagnetic data assimilation (GDAS) is still in an early stage. Among many challenges ranging from data to models is the disparity between the short observation records and the long time scales of the core dynamics. To better utilize available observational information, we have made an effort in this study to directly assimilate the Gauss coefficients of both the core field and its secular variation (SV) obtained via global geomagnetic field modeling, aiming at understanding the dynamical responses of the core fluid to these additional observational constraints. Our studies show that the SV assimilation helps significantly to shorten the dynamo model spin-up process. The flow beneath the core-mantle boundary (CMB) responds significantly to the observed field and its SV. The strongest responses occur in the relatively small scale flow (of the degrees L is approx. 30 in spherical harmonic expansions). This part of the flow includes the axisymmetric toroidal flow (of order m = 0) and non-axisymmetric poloidal flow with m (is) greater than 5. These responses can be used to better understand the core flow and, in particular, to improve accuracies of predicting geomagnetic variability in future.

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

The influence of the great inequality on the secular disturbing function of the planetary system.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musen, P.

1971-01-01

This paper derives the contribution by the great inequality to the secular disturbing function of the principal planets. Andoyer's expansion of the planetary disturbing function and von Zeipel's method of eliminating the periodic terms is employed; thereby, the corrected secular disturbing function for the planetary system is derived. The conclusion is drawn that the canonicity of the equations for the secular variation of the heliocentric elements can be preserved if there be retained, in the secular disturbing function, terms only of the second and fourth order relative to the eccentricity and inclinations. The Krylov-Bogoliubov method is suggested for eliminating periodic terms, if it is desired to include the secular perturbations of the fifth and higher order in the heliocentric elements. The additional part of the secular disturbing function derived in this paper can be included in existing theories of the secular effects of principal planets.

Simultaneous stochastic inversion for geomagnetic main field and secular variation. II - 1820-1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloxham, Jeremy; Jackson, Andrew

1989-01-01

With the aim of producing readable time-dependent maps of the geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary, the method of simultaneous stochastic inversion for the geomagnetic main field and secular variation, described by Bloxham (1987), was applied to survey data from the period 1820-1980 to yield two time-dependent geomagnetic-field models, one for the period 1900-1980 and the other for 1820-1900. Particular consideration was given to the effect of crustal fields on observations. It was found that the existing methods of accounting for these fields as sources of random noise are inadequate in two circumstances: (1) when sequences of measurements are made at one particular site, and (2) for measurements made at satellite altitude. The present model shows many of the features in the earth's magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary described by Bloxham and Gubbins (1985) and supports many of their earlier conclusions.

A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-12 based on Swarm data and inverse geodynamo modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien; Thébault, Erwan

2015-05-01

In the context of the 12th release of the international geomagnetic reference field (IGRF), we present the methodology we followed to design a candidate secular variation model for years 2015-2020. An initial geomagnetic field model centered around 2014.3 is first constructed, based on Swarm magnetic measurements, for both the main field and its instantaneous secular variation. This initial model is next fed to an inverse geodynamo modelling framework in order to specify, for epoch 2014.3, the initial condition for the integration of a three-dimensional numerical dynamo model. The initialization phase combines the information contained in the initial model with that coming from the numerical dynamo model, in the form of three-dimensional multivariate statistics built from a numerical dynamo run unconstrained by data. We study the performance of this novel approach over two recent 5-year long intervals, 2005-2010 and 2009-2014. For a forecast horizon of 5 years, shorter than the large-scale secular acceleration time scale (˜10 years), we find that it is safer to neglect the flow acceleration and to assume that the flow determined by the initialization is steady. This steady flow is used to advance the three-dimensional induction equation forward in time, with the benefit of estimating the effects of magnetic diffusion. The result of this deterministic integration between 2015.0 and 2020.0 yields our candidate average secular variation model for that time frame, which is thus centered on 2017.5.

Development of a Process Based Paleomagnetic Secular Variation Dating Curve for the Northern Hemisphere Through the Radiocarbon Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoner, J. S.; Reilly, B. T.; Walczak, M. H.; Mix, A. C.; Lavoie, N.; Velle, J. H.; St-Onge, G.; Xuan, C.

2017-12-01

Paleomagnetic secular variation is a well-known centennial to millennial stratigraphic dating tool, but is generally considered to be regionally limited. Recent observations from the Holocene suggest that such spatial limitations may result from our incomplete understanding of field dynamics, rather than actual geomagnetic limitations. Comparisons of independently well-dated, high-resolution paleomagnetic secular variation records from the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere—including Asia, Northwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, North America, North Atlantic, and Europe—reveal the existence of a primary (there may be others) coherent millennial scale oscillation of the geomagnetic field. This oscillation is observed using different geomagnetic parameters (e.g., inclination, declination, intensity) and signs depending on the site's location relative to the region of primary geomagnetic flux. This distinct spatial and temporal pattern is consistent with oscillations of geomagnetic flux recurring at just a few locations. The recurring persistence of this pattern, through the Holocene and possibly much longer, implicates lower mantle heterogeneity as a likely driver of field morphology. As with any paleo reconstructions, data coverage is far from perfect and as a result the geomagnetic details are just coming into focus. Yet, the stratigraphic potential is readily apparent and, if iteratively used, could significantly enhance our geomagnetic understanding as well as facilitate chronological control in a variety of settings. Here we explore the nature, uncertainties, and implications; including our initial attempt to extend the oscillation beyond the Holocene and through the radiocarbon interval starting from a Northeast Pacific perspective. Our intent is to develop a type curve with constrained uncertainties that can be used for stratigraphic correlation around the Northern Hemisphere as we move toward a process based dynamic magnetostratigraphic understanding.

High-resolution chronology of sediment below CCD based on Holocene paleomagnetic secular variations in the Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Usami, Kazuko; McHugh, Cecilia M. G.; Ikehara, Ken

2017-08-01

Using high-resolution paleomagnetic data, we examined the potential for obtaining precise ages from sediment core samples recovered from deep-sea basins close to rupture zones of the 2011 and earlier earthquakes off Tohoku, Japan. Obtaining detailed stratigraphic ages from deep-sea sediments below the calcium compensation depth (CCD) is difficult, but we found that the samples contain excellent paleomagnetic secular variation records to constrain age models. Variations in paleomagnetic directions obtained from the sediments reveal systematic changes in the cores. A stacked paleomagnetic profile closely matches the Lake Biwa data sets in southwest Japan for the past 7000 years, one can establish age models based on secular variations of the geomagnetic field on sediments recovered uniquely below the CCD. Comparison of paleomagnetic directions near a tephra and a paleomagnetic direction of contemporaneous pyroclastic flow deposits acquired by different magnetization processes shows precise depositional ages reflecting the magnetization delay of the marine sediment record.