Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Temporal trends of mercury in eggs of five sympatrically breeding seabird species in the Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Braune, Birgit M; Gaston, Anthony J; Mallory, Mark L

2016-07-01

We compared temporal trends of total mercury (Hg) in eggs of five seabird species breeding at Prince Leopold Island in the Canadian high Arctic. As changes in trophic position over time have the potential to influence contaminant temporal trends, Hg concentrations were adjusted for trophic position (measured as δ(15)N). Adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) increased from 1975 to the 1990s, followed by a plateauing of levels from the 1990s to 2014. Trends of adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of murres, fulmars, black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) had negative slopes between 1993 and 2013. Adjusted Hg concentrations in glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) eggs decreased by 50% from 1993 to 2003 before starting to increase again. Glaucous gull eggs had the highest Hg concentrations followed by black guillemot eggs, and black-legged kittiwake eggs had the lowest concentrations consistently in the five years compared between 1993 and 2013. Based on published toxicological thresholds for Hg in eggs, there is little concern for adverse reproductive effects due to Hg exposure in these birds, although the levels in glaucous gull eggs warrant future scrutiny given the increase in Hg concentrations observed in recent years. There is evidence that the Hg trends observed reflect changing anthropogenic Hg emissions. It remains unclear, however, to what extent exposure to Hg on the overwintering grounds influences the Hg trends observed in the seabird eggs at Prince Leopold Island. Future research should focus on determining the extent to which Hg exposure on the breeding grounds versus the overwintering areas contribute to the trends observed in the eggs. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall erosivity in mainland China for 1951-2010

Treesearch

Wei Qin; Qiankun Guo; Changqing Zuo; Zhijie Shan; Liang Ma; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is an important factor for estimating soil erosion rates. Understanding the spatial distributionand temporal trends of rainfall erosivity is especially critical for soil erosion risk assessment and soil conservationplanning in mainland China. However, reports on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall...

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

Temporal trends in dioxins (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus).

PubMed

Miller, Aroha; Hedman, Jenny E; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Haglund, Peter; Cousins, Ian T; Wiberg, Karin; Bignert, Anders

2013-08-15

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (dl-PCBs) concentrations in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) have been relatively stable since the mid to late 1990s. It is unclear why concentrations in Baltic herring are not following the observed decreases in other environmental matrices. Here, changes in long-term temporal trends in Baltic herring were examined. A number of biological variables were examined alongside the temporal trends to investigate whether fish biology e.g., growth (length, weight, age), lipid content, reproductive phase or fishing date may provide an explanation for the temporal trends observed. Significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends were observed for PCDD/F toxic equivalents (TEQPCDD/F) at three of the four sites (lipid weight (lw) and wet weight (ww), Swedish west coast lw only); however, other TEQ values e.g., TEQPCDD, TEQPCDF, TEQdl-PCB, TEQPCDD/F+dl-PCB were inconsistent, decreasing at some sites but not others. In the most recent 10 years of data, fewer significant decreases were seen overall. Over the examined time period, significant decreases (Bothnian Bay, p<0.01, southern Baltic Proper, p<0.02) and increases (Swedish west coast, p<0.02) in lipid content, growth dilution or lack thereof, and significant changes in age were observed. However herring were not randomly selected which biases this result. Continual efforts to decrease PCDD/F and dl-PCB emissions and to locate/reduce hotspots are necessary, while bearing in mind that herring biology may be impeding faster decreases of these chemicals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Long-Term Citizen-Collected Data Reveal Geographical Patterns and Temporal Trends in Lake Water Clarity

PubMed Central

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis 10

PubMed Central

de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Yamamura, Mellina; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease. PMID:29742272

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Methods for evaluating temporal trends in noise exposure.

PubMed

Neitzel, R L; Galusha, D; Dixon-Ernst, C; Rabinowitz, P M

2014-03-01

Hearing conservation programs have been mandatory in many US industries since 1983. Since then, three program elements (audiometric testing, hearing protection, and training) have been the focus of much research. By comparison, little has been done on noise exposure evaluation. Temporal trends in time weighted average (TWA) exposures and the fraction of measurements exceeding 85 dBA were evaluated by facility, by exposure group within facility, and by individual worker within facility. A large dataset (> 10 000 measurements over 20 years) from eight facilities operated by a multinational aluminum manufacturing company was studied. Overall, exposures declined across locations over the study period. Several facilities demonstrated substantial reductions in exposure, and the results of mean noise levels and exceedance fractions generally showed good agreement. The results of analyses at the individual level diverged with analyses by facility and exposure group within facility, suggesting that individual-level analyses, while challenging, may provide important information not available from coarser levels of analysis. Validated metrics are needed to allow for assessment of temporal trends in noise exposure. Such metrics will improve our ability to characterize, in a standardized manner, efforts to reduce noise-induced hearing loss.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

PubMed

Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

Temporal trends in organic carbon content in the main Swiss rivers, 1974-2010.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Murillo, J C; Zobrist, J; Filella, M

2015-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have often been reported in rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades. High-quality organic carbon (OC) concentration data have been used to study the change in DOC and total (TOC) organic carbon concentrations in the main rivers of Switzerland (Rhône, Rhine, Thur and Aar) between 1974 and 2010. These rivers are characterized by high discharge regimes (due to their Alpine origin) and by running in populated areas. Small long term trends (a general statistically significant decrease in TOC and a less clear increase in DOC concentrations), on the order of 1% of mean OC concentration per year, have been observed. An upward trend before 1999 reversed direction to a more marked downward trend from 1999 to 2010. Of the potential causes of OC temporal variation analysed (water temperature, dissolved reactive phosphorus and river discharge), only discharge explains a significant, albeit still small, part of TOC variability (8-31%), while accounting for barely 2.5% of DOC variability. Estimated anthropogenic TOC and DOC loads (treated sewage) to the rivers could account for a maximum of 4-20% of the temporal trends. Such low predictability is a good example of the limitations faced when studying causality and drivers behind small variations in complex systems. River export of OC from Switzerland has decreased significantly over the period. Since about 5.5% of estimated NEP of Switzerland is exported by the rivers, riverine OC fluxes should be taken into account in a detailed carbon budget of the country. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in the primary flight feathers of Strix aluco.

PubMed

Varela, Z; García-Seoane, R; Fernández, J A; Carballeira, A; Aboal, J R

2016-08-01

Temporal trends in Hg concentrations were determined in the primary flight feathers of 146 specimens of Strix aluco which had died in various Wildlife Recovery Centres in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1997 and 2014. The aim of the study was to determine whether standardization of a primary flight feather (or feathers) in this species is essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations. For this purpose, we had to first standardize the feather(s) analyzed to enable comparison of the levels of Hg detected in different feathers. The results show a high degree of both inter and intra-individual variability but despite that, it was possible to identify P5 as the most representative feather taking into account the amount of metal excreted in each feather and the intra-individual variability: its median was 133ng, which represents 15% (from 7% to 15%) of the total Hg present in all the primary feathers. However, this "standard feather" did not reveal any temporal trend in Hg concentrations for the study period. This lack of trend was found irrespective of the feather considered and it is expected that detection of any existing trend would also not depend on the feather considered. We conclude that use of any particular feather is not essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations, because the pattern will be identified regardless of the feather selected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and

Methods for evaluating temporal trends in noise exposure

PubMed Central

Neitzel, RL; Galusha, D; Dixon-Ernst, C; Rabinowitz, PM

2014-01-01

Objective Hearing conservation programs have been mandatory in many US industries since 1983. Since then, three program elements (audiometric testing, hearing protection, and training) have been the focus of much research. By comparison, little has been done on noise exposure evaluation. Design and study sample Utilizing a large dataset (>10,000 measurements over 20 years) from eight facilities operated by a multinational aluminum manufacturing company, we evaluated several approaches to assessing temporal trends in Time Weighted Average (TWA) exposures and the fraction of measurements exceeding 85 dBA by facility, by exposure group within facility, and by individual worker within facility. Results Overall, exposures declined across locations over the study period. Several facilities demonstrated substantial reductions in exposure, and the results of mean noise levels and exceedance fractions generally showed good agreement. The results of analyses at the individual level diverged with analyses by facility and exposure group within facility, suggesting that individual-level analyses, while challenging, may provide important information not available from coarser levels of analysis. Conclusions Validated metrics are needed to allow for assessment of temporal trends in noise exposure. Such metrics will improve our ability to characterize, in a standardized manner, efforts to reduce noise-induced hearing loss. PMID:24564696

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

2018-04-01

Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartnett, Justin Joseph

Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE HEALTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA CORAL REEFS

EPA Science Inventory

Barron, M.G., D.L. Santavy, L. MacLaughlin, E. Mueller, E. Peters, B. Quarles and J. Campbell. In press. Temporal Trends in the Health of South Florida Coral Reefs (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R100...

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

Temporal trends of mercury concentrations in Wisconsin walleye (Sander vitreus), 1982-2005.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Paul W; Schrank, Candy S; Campfield, Patrick A

2007-11-01

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has monitored mercury (Hg) in several species of fish since the early 1970s primarily for fish consumption advisory purposes. We selected skin-on fillets of walleye (Sander vitreus) from inland lakes collected over the years 1982-2005 to assess temporal trends of Hg concentrations. While individual lakes are of interest, sample sizes, and unbalanced collections across fish lengths, seasons, or years prevent estimates of temporal trends of walleye Hg concentrations within most lakes. We evaluated temporal trends over all lakes using mixed effects models (3,024 records from 421 lakes). Relationships between Hg concentrations and a suite of lake chemistry, morphometry, and other variables were also explored. Hg concentrations generally increased with walleye length but the relationship varied among lakes. The best-fitting mixed effects models suggested that the overall rate of change in walleye Hg across all lakes in the dataset varied with latitude. Hg in walleye decreased 0.5% per year in northern lakes, increased 0.8% in southern lakes, and remained constant in middle latitude lakes over the period of 1982-2005. Season of collection was also an important predictor variable. Hg concentrations were highest in walleye captured in the spring and lowest in the fall. Other variables such as gender, lake area, and total alkalinity were also important predictors.

Exploring Potential Reasons for the Temporal Trend in Dialysis-Requiring AKI in the United States

PubMed Central

McCulloch, Charles E.; Heung, Michael; Saran, Rajiv; Shahinian, Vahakn B.; Pavkov, Meda E.; Burrows, Nilka Ríos; Powe, Neil R.; Hsu, Chi-yuan

2016-01-01

Background and objectives The population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI has risen substantially in the last decade in the United States, and factors associated with this temporal trend are not well known. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a United States nationally representative database of hospitalizations from 2007 to 2009. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes to identify hospitalizations with dialysis-requiring AKI and then, selected the diagnostic and procedure codes most highly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI in 2009. We applied multivariable logistic regression adjusting for demographics and used a backward selection technique to identify a set of diagnoses or a set of procedures that may be a driver for this changing risk in dialysis-requiring AKI. Results From 2007 to 2009, the population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI increased by 11% per year (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.16; P<0.001). Using backward selection, we found that the temporal trend in the six diagnoses, septicemia, hypertension, respiratory failure, coagulation/hemorrhagic disorders, shock, and liver disease, sufficiently and fully accounted for the temporal trend in dialysis-requiring AKI. In contrast, temporal trends in 15 procedures most commonly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI did not account for the increasing dialysis–requiring AKI trend. Conclusions The increasing risk of dialysis-requiring AKI among hospitalized patients in the United States was highly associated with the changing burden of six acute and chronic conditions but not with surgeries and procedures. PMID:26683890

SOMA: A Proposed Framework for Trend Mining in Large UK Diabetic Retinopathy Temporal Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somaraki, Vassiliki; Harding, Simon; Broadbent, Deborah; Coenen, Frans

In this paper, we present SOMA, a new trend mining framework; and Aretaeus, the associated trend mining algorithm. The proposed framework is able to detect different kinds of trends within longitudinal datasets. The prototype trends are defined mathematically so that they can be mapped onto the temporal patterns. Trends are defined and generated in terms of the frequency of occurrence of pattern changes over time. To evaluate the proposed framework the process was applied to a large collection of medical records, forming part of the diabetic retinopathy screening programme at the Royal Liverpool University Hospital.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

PubMed Central

Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2014-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System–Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters’ initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time. PMID:29795823

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores.

PubMed

Casabianca, Jodi M; Lockwood, J R; McCaffrey, Daniel F

2015-04-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters' initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2015-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

Temporal Trends and Pattern Changes of Short- and Medium-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins in Marine Mammals from the South China Sea over the Past Decade.

PubMed

Zeng, Lixi; Lam, James C W; Wang, Yawei; Jiang, Guibin; Lam, Paul K S

2015-10-06

Temporal trends of short- (SCCPs) and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) were examined in blubber samples of 50 finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) and 25 Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) collected from the South China Sea between 2004 and 2014. Elevated levels of SCCPs and MCCPs were detected in all blubber samples of both cetacean species. Concentrations of SCCPs ranged from 280 to 3900 ng·g(-1) dry weight (dw) in porpoises and from 430 to 9100 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins, while concentrations of MCCPs ranged from 320 to 8600 ng·g(-1) dw in porpoises and from 530 to 23 000 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins. Significantly higher concentrations were present in dolphins than porpoises due to their exposure levels in their living habitats. Strongly linear correlations existed between SCCPs and MCCPs, but there were no significant concentration differences between the genders of the two cetacean species in the same sampling year. Significantly temporal increasing trends of ∑SCCPs and ∑MCCPs have been observed in both porpoise and dolphin samples over the past decade, which reflect the influence of histories of production and usage on the bioaccumulation of CPs in marine mammals in China. An apparent temporal shift trend from SCCPs to MCCPs was also observed in CP accumulation profiles. Complex environmental fractionation from localized sources in the study region via atmospheric transport, oceanic/offshore water transport, and trophic transfer have resulted in different CP accumulation levels and homologue patterns in the two cetacean species. This is the first report of systematic temporal trends of SCCPs and MCCPs in marine mammals.

Temporal trends of young-of-year fishes in Lake Erie and comparison of diel sampling periods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, M.A.; Bur, M.T.; Adams, J.V.

2007-01-01

We explored temporal trends of young-of-year (YOY) fishes caught in bottom trawl hauls at an established offshore monitoring site in Lake Erie in fall during 1961–2001. Sampling was conducted during morning, afternoon, and night in each year. Catches per hour (CPH) of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) YOY were relatively low and exhibited no temporal trend. This result was consistent with the species’ intolerance to Lake Erie’s adverse winter water temperatures. Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) YOY decreased sharply after 1991, which was consistent with recent oligotrophication of the lake. Following the establishment in 1979 and rapid increase of white perch (Morone americana) YOY, white bass (Morone chrysops) and freshwater drum (Aplodinotus grunniens) YOY decreased. Trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus) YOY decreased during 1986–1991, but recovered to previous levels during 1991–2001. The recovery coincided with the resurgence of mayflies (Ephemoptera) in the lake. CPH of spottail shiner (Notropis hudsonius) and emerald shiner (N. atherinoides) YOY exhibited no temporal trend between 1961 and the late 1970s to early 1980s. CPH of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) YOY decreased during 1961–1988, and walleye (Sander vitreum) YOY increased overall during the time series. These observations were consistent with published studies of adults in the region. CPH of 4 of the 10 species of YOY considered were greatest during night. CPH for walleye YOY was higher in the morning than in the afternoon, but there was no significant difference between night and morning abundances. The results suggest that (1) CPH of YOY fishes may be a useful monitoring tool for Lake Erie, and (2) offshore monitoring programs that do not include night sampling periods may underestimate recruitment for several common species.

Spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for signal detection from image sequences

PubMed Central

Caucci, Luca; Barrett, Harrison H.; Rodríguez, Jeffrey J.

2010-01-01

Detection of signals in noisy images is necessary in many applications, including astronomy and medical imaging. The optimal linear observer for performing a detection task, called the Hotelling observer in the medical literature, can be regarded as a generalization of the familiar prewhitening matched filter. Performance on the detection task is limited by randomness in the image data, which stems from randomness in the object, randomness in the imaging system, and randomness in the detector outputs due to photon and readout noise, and the Hotelling observer accounts for all of these effects in an optimal way. If multiple temporal frames of images are acquired, the resulting data set is a spatio-temporal random process, and the Hotelling observer becomes a spatio-temporal linear operator. This paper discusses the theory of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer and estimation of the required spatio-temporal covariance matrices. It also presents a parallel implementation of the observer on a cluster of Sony PLAYSTATION 3 gaming consoles. As an example, we consider the use of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for exoplanet detection. PMID:19550494

Spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for signal detection from image sequences.

PubMed

Caucci, Luca; Barrett, Harrison H; Rodriguez, Jeffrey J

2009-06-22

Detection of signals in noisy images is necessary in many applications, including astronomy and medical imaging. The optimal linear observer for performing a detection task, called the Hotelling observer in the medical literature, can be regarded as a generalization of the familiar prewhitening matched filter. Performance on the detection task is limited by randomness in the image data, which stems from randomness in the object, randomness in the imaging system, and randomness in the detector outputs due to photon and readout noise, and the Hotelling observer accounts for all of these effects in an optimal way. If multiple temporal frames of images are acquired, the resulting data set is a spatio-temporal random process, and the Hotelling observer becomes a spatio-temporal linear operator. This paper discusses the theory of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer and estimation of the required spatio-temporal covariance matrices. It also presents a parallel implementation of the observer on a cluster of Sony PLAYSTATION 3 gaming consoles. As an example, we consider the use of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for exoplanet detection.

Temporal Trends in Anesthesia-related Adverse Events in Cesarean Deliveries, New York State, 2003-2012.

PubMed

Guglielminotti, Jean; Wong, Cynthia A; Landau, Ruth; Li, Guohua

2015-11-01

Cesarean delivery (CD) is associated with significantly increased risks of anesthesia-related adverse events (ARAEs) and nonanesthetic perioperative morbidity compared with vaginal delivery. Temporal trends in these adverse outcomes remain unknown despite efforts to improve maternal safety. This study examines temporal trends in ARAEs and nonanesthetic perioperative complications in CDs in New York hospitals. Data are from the State Inpatient Database for New York, 2003-2012. ARAEs, including minor and major ARAEs, and nonanesthetic perioperative complications were identified through International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Statistical significance in time trends was assessed using the Cochran-Armitage test and multivariable logistic regression. Of the 785,854 CDs studied, 5,715 (730 per 100,000; 95% CI, 710 to 750) had at least one ARAE and 7,040 had at least one perioperative complication (890 per 100,000; 95% CI, 870 to 920). The overall annual rate of ARAEs decreased from 890 per 100,000 in 2003 to 660 in 2012 (25% decrease; 95% CI, 16 to 34; P < 0.0001). The rate of minor ARAEs decreased 23% (95% CI, 13 to 32) and of major ARAEs decreased 43% (95% CI, 23 to 63). No decrease was observed in the rate of ARAEs for CDs performed under general anesthesia. The rate of nonanesthetic complications increased 47% (95% CI, 31 to 63; P < 0.0001). Anesthesia-related outcomes in cesarean deliveries appear to have improved significantly across hospitals in New York in the past decade. Perioperative nonanesthetic complications remain a serious healthcare issue.

Comparison of temporal trends in VOCs as measured with PDB samplers and low-flow sampling methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harte, P.T.

2002-01-01

Analysis of temporal trends in tetrachloroethylene (PCE) concentration determined by two sample techniques showed that passive diffusion bag (pdb) samplers adequately sample the large variation in PCE concentrations at the site. The slopes of the temporal trends in concentrations were comparable between the two techniques, and the pdb sample concentration generally reflected the instantaneous concentration sampled by the low-flow technique. Thus, the pdb samplers provided an appropriate sampling technique for PCE at these wells. One or two wells did not make the case for widespread application of pdb samples at all sites. However, application of pdb samples in some circumstances was appropriate for evaluating temporal and spatial variations in VOC concentrations, thus, should be considered as a useful tool in hydrogeology.

Temporal trends in dancing among adults between 1994 and 2012: The Health Survey for England.

PubMed

Vassallo, Amy Jo; Hiller, Claire E; Pappas, Evangelos; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

2018-01-01

The benefits of physical activity are established, however, increasing population physical activity levels remains a challenge. Participating in activities that are enjoyable and multidimensional, such as dancing, are associated with better adherence. However, the extent to which the general population participates in dancing and its temporal trends has not been well studied. The aim of this study was to investigate temporal trends and patterns and correlates of dance participation in England from 1994 to 2012 using a series of large nationally representative surveys. We used data from the Health Survey for England 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012 to examine dance temporal trends. Temporal trends data were age-standardized and correlates of dance participation were examined for males and females over each study year. Changes in population prevalence of dance participation were determined using multiple logistical regression with 1997 as the reference year. Of all survey participants (n=98,178) 7.8% (95%CI: 7.63-7.96) reported dance participation. There was a marked steady decrease over time, with the steepest decline from 2003 onwards. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for dance participation were 0.51 for males (95%CI 0.408-0.630, p<0.001) and 0.69 for females (95%CI: 0.598-0.973, p<0.001) in 2012 compared to 1997. Dance participation in adults in England has decreased markedly over time. This study suggests that dance is not being adequately utilized as a health enhancing physical activity, and therefore further research and resources should be dedicated to supporting dance in the community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Spatio-temporal Variations of Nitrogen Dioxide over Western China from Satellite Observations during 2005-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Lin, J.; Huang, B.; Song, C.

2015-12-01

Western China has experienced rapid urbanization and industrialization since the implementation of National Western Development Strategy by Chinese Government. Most resource-intensive industries and high-pollution factories had been moved from the east coast to Western China after 2000. In this research, the spatial and temporal variations of tropospheric NO2 concentration in 2005 - 2013 is analyzed based on the satellite observations by Ozone Measurement Instrument (OMI). The annual trends and seasonality of tropospheric NO2 over Western China are calculated. The results show that large increases are observed in urban areas and the polluted regions are expanding. Additionally, the seasonal patterns of some regions over Western China are changing significantly and more clean areas tend to changing from the characteristics of natural emissions to those of anthropogenic emissions. The spatial and temporal variations of NO2 concentrations are well responded to the rapid urbanization and industrialization over Western China.

Temporal trends in United States dew point temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Peter J.

2000-07-01

In this study, hourly data for the 1951-1990 period for 178 stations in the coterminous United States were used to establish temporal trends in dew point temperature. Although the data had been quality controlled previously (Robinson, 1998. Monthly variations of dew point temperatures in the coterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1539-1556), comparisons of values between nearby stations suggested that instrumental changes, combined with locational changes, may have modified the results by as much as 1°C during the 40-year period. Nevertheless, seasonally averaged results indicated an increase over much of the area, of slightly over 1°C/100 years in spring and autumn, slightly less than this in summer. Winter displayed a drying of over 1°C/100 years. When only the 1961-1990 period was considered, the patterns were similar and trends increased by approximately 1-2°C/100 years, except in autumn, which displayed a slight drying. Analyses for specific stations indicated periods of both increasing and decreasing Td, the change between them varying with observation hour. No single change point was common over a wide area, although January commonly indicated maximum values early in the period in the east and west, and much later in the north-central portion. Rates of increase were generally higher in daytime than at night, especially in summer. Investigation of the inter-decadal differences in dew point, as a function of wind conditions, indicated that changes during calm conditions were commonly similar in magnitude to that of the overall average changes, suggesting an important role for the local hydrologic cycle in driving changes. Other inter-decadal changes could be attributed to the changes in the frequency and moisture content of invading air-streams. This was particularly clear for the changes in north-south flow in the interior.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Multi-regional synthesis of temporal trends in biotic assemblages in streams and rivers of the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Brasher, Anne M.D.; Keenen, Jonathan G.

2013-01-01

Biotic assemblages in aquatic ecosystems are excellent integrators and indicators of changing environmental conditions within a watershed. Therefore, temporal changes in abiotic environmental variables often can be inferred from temporal changes in biotic assemblages. Algae, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage data were collected from 91 sampling sites in 4 geographic regions (northeastern/north-central, southeastern, south-central, and western), collectively encompassing the continental United States, from 1993 to 2009 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. This report uses a multivariate approach to synthesize temporal trends in biotic assemblages and correlations with relevant abiotic parameters as a function of biotic assemblage, geographic region, and land use. Of the three groups of biota, algal assemblages had temporal trends at the greatest percentage of sites. Of the regions, a greater percentage of sites in the northeastern/north-central and western regions had temporal trends in biotic assemblages. In terms of land use, a greater percentage of watersheds draining agricultural, urban, and undeveloped areas had significant temporal changes in biota, as compared to watersheds with mixed use. Correlations between biotic assemblages and abiotic variables indicate that, in general, macroinvertebrate assemblages correlated with water quality and fish assemblages correlated with physical habitat. Taken together, results indicate that there are regional differences in how individual biotic assemblages (algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish) respond to different abiotic drivers of change.

Assessing spatio-temporal trend of vector breeding and dengue fever incidence in association with meteorological conditions.

PubMed

Malik, Afifa; Yasar, Abdullah; Tabinda, Amtul Bari; Zaheer, Ihsan Elahi; Malik, Khalida; Batool, Adeeba; Mahfooz, Yusra

2017-04-01

Th aim of this study is to investigate spatio-temporal trends of dengue vector breeding and epidemic (disease incidence) influenced by climatic factors. The spatio-temporal (low-, medium-, and high-intensity periods) evaluation of entomological and epidemiological investigations along with climatic factors like rainfall (RF), temperature (T max ), relative humidity (RH), and larval indexing was conducted to develop correlations in the area of Lahore, Pakistan. The vector abundance and disease transmission trend was geo-tagged for spatial insight. The sufficient rainfall events and optimum temperature and relative humidity supported dengue vector breeding with high larval indices for water-related containers (27-37%). Among temporal analysis, the high-intensity period exponentially projected disease incidence followed by post-rainfall impacts. The high larval incidence that was observed in early high-intensity periods effected the dengue incidence. The disease incidence had a strong association with RF (r = 0.940, α = 0.01). The vector larva occurrence (r = 0.017, α = 0.05) influenced the disease incidence. Similarly, RH (r = 0.674, α = 0.05) and average T max (r = 0.307, α = 0.05) also induced impact on the disease incidence. In this study, the vulnerability to dengue fever highly correlates with meteorological factors during high-intensity period. It provides area-specific understanding of vector behavior, key containers, and seasonal patterns of dengue vector breeding and disease transmission which is essential for preparing an effective prevention plan against the vector.

Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perles, Stephanie J.; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Callahan, Kristina K.; Marshall, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of theVital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year−1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year−1 in most indicators.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

PubMed

Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

2011-08-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-01-01

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006–2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources. PMID:26492263

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs.

PubMed

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-10-20

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006-2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Stratified Snowpack Cold Content Observed in the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, J. S.; Sexstone, G. A.; Serreze, M. C.

2017-12-01

Snowpack cold content (CCsnow) is the energy required to bring a snowpack to an isothermal temperature of 0.0°C. The spatio-temporal variability of CCsnow is complex as it is a measure that integrates the response of a snowpack to each component of the snow-cover energy balance. Snow and ice at high elevation is climate sensitive water storage for the Western U.S. Therefore, an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal variability of CCsnow may provide insight into snowpack dynamics and sensitivity to climate change. In this study, stratified snowpit observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow temperature (Tsnow) from the USGS Rocky Mountain Snowpack network (USGS RMS) were used to evaluate vertical CCsnow profiles over a 16-year period in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Since 1993, USGS RMS has collected snow chemistry, snow temperature, and SWE data throughout the Rocky Mountain region, making it well positioned for Anthropocene cryosphere benchmarking and climate change interpretation. Spatial grouping of locations based on similar CCsnow characteristics was evaluated and trend analyses were performed. Additionally, we evaluated the regional relation of CCsnow to snowmelt timing. CCsnow was more precisely calculated and more representative using vertically stratified field observed values than bulk values, which highlights the utility of the snowpack dataset presented here. Location specific annual and 16 year mean stratified snowpit profiles of SWE, Tsnow, and CCsnow well represent the physical geography and past weather patterns acting on the snowpack. Observed trends and spatial variability of CCsnow profiles explored by this study provides an improved understanding of changing snowpack behavior in the western U.S., and will be useful for assessing the regional sensitivity of snowpacks to future climate change.

Tweet for health: using an online social network to examine temporal trends in weight loss-related posts.

PubMed

Turner-McGrievy, Gabrielle M; Beets, Michael W

2015-06-01

Few studies have used social networking sites to track temporal trends in health-related posts, particularly around weight loss. To examine the temporal relationship of Twitter messages about weight loss over 1 year (2012). Temporal trends in #weightloss mentions and #fitness, #diet, and #health tweets which also had the word "weight" in them were examined using three a priori time periods: (1) holidays: pre-winter holidays, holidays, and post-holidays; (2) Season: winter and summer; and (3) New Year's: pre-New Year's and post-New Year's. Regarding #weightloss, there were 145 (95 % CI 79, 211) more posts/day during holidays and 143 (95 % CI 76, 209) more posts/day after holidays as compared to 480 pre-holiday posts/day; 232 (95 % CI 178, 286) more posts/day during the winter versus summer (441 posts/day); there was no difference in posts around New Year's. Examining social networks for trends in health-related posts may aid in timing interventions when individuals are more likely to be discussing weight loss.

Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P. M.; Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2014-12-01

Accurate measurements and simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface albedo are essential, given the role of surface albedo in modulating the amount of absorbed solar radiation and meltwater production. In this study, we assess the spatio-temporal variability of GrIS albedo during June, July, and August (JJA) for the period 2000-2013. We use two remote sensing products derived from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) regional climate model (RCM) and data from in situ automatic weather stations. Our results point to an overall consistency in spatio-temporal variability between remote sensing and RCM albedo, but reveal a difference in mean albedo of up to ~0.08 between the two remote sensing products north of 70° N. At low elevations, albedo values simulated by the RCM are positively biased with respect to remote sensing products by up to ~0.1 and exhibit low variability compared with observations. We infer that these differences are the result of a positive bias in simulated bare ice albedo. MODIS albedo, RCM outputs, and in situ observations consistently indicate a decrease in albedo of -0.03 to -0.06 per decade over the period 2003-2013 for the GrIS ablation area. Nevertheless, satellite products show a decline in JJA albedo of -0.03 to -0.04 per decade for regions within the accumulation area that is not confirmed by either the model or in situ observations. These findings appear to contradict a previous study that found an agreement between in situ and MODIS trends for individual months. The results indicate a need for further evaluation of high elevation albedo trends, a reconciliation of MODIS mean albedo at high latitudes, and the importance of accurately simulating bare ice albedo in RCMs.

Temporal and Longitudinal Mercury Trends in Burbot (Lota lota) in the Russian Arctic.

PubMed

Pelletier, Alexander R; Castello, Leandro; Zhulidov, Alexander V; Gurtovaya, Tatiana Yu; Robarts, Richard D; Holmes, Robert M; Zhulidov, Daniel A; Spencer, Robert G M

2017-11-21

Current understanding of mercury (Hg) dynamics in the Arctic is hampered by a lack of data in the Russian Arctic region, which comprises about half of the entire Arctic watershed. This study quantified temporal and longitudinal trends in total mercury (THg) concentrations in burbot (Lota lota) in eight rivers of the Russian Arctic between 1980 and 2001, encompassing an expanse of 118 degrees of longitude. Burbot THg concentrations declined by an average of 2.6% annually across all eight rivers during the study period, decreasing by 39% from 0.171 μg g -1 wet weight (w.w.) in 1980 to 0.104 μg g -1 w.w. in 2001. THg concentrations in burbot also declined by an average of 1.8% per 10° of longitude from west to east across the study area between 1988 and 2001. These results, in combination with those of previous studies, suggest that Hg trends in Arctic freshwater fishes before 2001 were spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as those in the North American Arctic were mostly increasing while those in the Russian Arctic were mostly decreasing. It is suggested that Hg trends in Arctic animals may be influenced by both depositional and postdepositional processes.

An Overview of OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS), a SPARC Emerging Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Manney, G. L.; Hoor, P. M.; Bourassa, A. E.; Braathen, G.; Chang, K. L.; Hegglin, M. I.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Leblanc, T.; Livesey, N. J.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Stiller, G. P.; Tegtmeier, S.; Thouret, V.; Voigt, C.; Walker, K. A.

2017-12-01

The distribution of tracers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) shows large spatial and temporal variability because of interactions of transport, chemical, and mixing processes near the tropopause, as well as variations in the location of the tropopause itself. This strongly affects quantitative estimates of the impact of radiatively active substances, including ozone and water vapour, on surface temperatures, and complicates diagnosis of dynamical processes such as stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE). The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) emerging activity OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS) aims to reduce the uncertainties in trend estimates by accounting for these dynamically induced sources of variability. Achieving these goals by using existing UTLS trace gas observations from aircraft, ground-based, balloon and satellite platforms requires a consistent analysis of these different data with respect to the tropopause or the jets. As a central task for OCTAV-UTLS, we are developing and applying common metrics, calculated using the same reanalysis datasets, to compare UTLS data using geophysically-based coordinate systems including tropopause and upper tropospheric jet relative coordinates. In addition to assessing present day measurement capabilities, OCTAV-UTLS will assess gaps in current geographical / temporal sampling of the UTLS that limit our ability to determine atmospheric composition variability and trends. This talk will provide an overview of the OCTAV-UTLS activity and some examples of initial calculations of geophysically-based coordinates and comparisons of remapped data.

Marked socioeconomic inequalities in hip fracture incidence rates during the Bone and Joint Decade (2000-2010) in Portugal: age and sex temporal trends in a population based study.

PubMed

Oliveira, Carla Maria; Alves, Sandra Maria; Pina, Maria Fátima

2016-08-01

Socioeconomic factors may influence changes in hip fracture (HF) incidence over time. We analysed HF temporal trends during the Bone and Joint Decade in Portugal (BJD-Portugal), 2000-2010, by regional socioeconomic status (SES), sex and age. We selected registers of patients aged 50+ years with HF (International Classification of Diseases, V.9-Clinical Modification, ICD9-CM) caused by traumas of low/moderate energy, from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Annual time series of age-specific incidence rates were calculated by sex and regional SES (deprived, medium, affluent). Generalised additive models were fitted to identify shape/turning points in temporal trends. We selected 96 905 HF (77.3% in women). Women were older than men at admission (81.2±8.5 vs 78.2±10.1 years-old, p<0.001). For women 65-79 years, a continuously decreasing trend (1.7%/year) only in affluent and increasing trends (3.3-3.4%/year) after 2006/2007 in medium and deprived was observed. For men, trends were stable or increased in almost all age/SES groups (only two decreasing periods). For the oldest women, all SES present similar trends: turning points around 2003 (initiating decreasing periods: 1.8-2.9%/year) and around 2007 (initiating increasing periods: 3.7-3.3%/year). There were SES-sex-age inequalities in temporal trends during BJD-Portugal: marked SES inequalities among women aged 65-79 years (a persistent, decreasing trend only in the affluent) vanished among the oldest women; the same was not observed in men, for them, there were almost no declining periods; women aged ≥80 years, presented increasing trends around 2007, as in most deprived/age/sex groups. Despite some successful periods of decreasing trends, incidence rates did not improve overall in almost all age groups and both sexes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong

Spatial and temporal trends from an air quality sensor network near a heavily trafficked intersection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, P.; Vo, D.; Giossi, C.; George, L.

2017-12-01

With the world-wide increase in urbanization and the increasing usage of combustion vehicles in urban areas, traffic-related air pollution is a growing health hazard. However, there are limited studies that examine the spatial and temporal impacts of traffic-related pollutants within cities. In particular, there are few studies that look at traffic management and its potential for pollution mitigation. In a previous study we examined roadway pollution and traffic parameters with one roadway station instrumented with standard measurement instruments. With the advent of low-cost air pollution sensors, we have expanded our work by observing multiple sites within a neighborhood to understand spatial and temporal exposures. We have deployed a high-density sensor network around urban arterial corridors in SE Portland, Oregon. This network consisted of ten nodes measuring CO, NO, NO2 and O3, and ten nodes measuring CO, CO2, VOC and PM2.5. The co-location of standard measurement instruments provided insight towards the utility of our low-cost sensor network, as the different nodes varied in cost, and potentially in quality. We have identified near-real-time temporal trends and local-scale spatial patterns during the summer of 2017. Meteorological and traffic data were included to further characterize these patterns, exploring the potential for pollution mitigation.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

2011-01-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Temporal trends in maternal medical conditions and stillbirth.

PubMed

Patel, Emily M; Goodnight, William H; James, Andra H; Grotegut, Chad A

2015-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and temporal trends of medical conditions among women with stillbirth and to determine the effect of medical comorbidities on the trend of stillbirth. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for the years 2008-2010 was first queried for all delivery-related discharges. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) calculated for medical conditions among women with stillbirth. The NIS was then queried for the years 2000-2010, and the effect of maternal medical conditions on the stillbirth rate was estimated. From 2008 to 2010, there were 51,080 deliveries to women with stillbirth, giving a rate of 4.08 per 1000 live births. Women with stillbirth were more likely to be African American (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 2.07-2.17), with an age less than 25 years (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.22) or older than 35 years (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.37-1.44) compared with women without stillbirth. Medical conditions such as cardiac, rheumatological, and renal disorders; hypertension; diabetes; thrombophilia; and drug, alcohol and tobacco use, were independent predictors of fetal demise in multivariable logistic regression modeling. From 2000 to 2010, despite an increase in the total number of births to women with comorbidities, there was a significant decrease in the stillbirth rate, which was more pronounced among women with comorbidities compared with women without comorbidities (P=.021). From 2000 to 2010, there was a significantly greater decrease in the stillbirth rate among women with maternal medical conditions than there was among women without comorbidities. These findings occurred despite an overall increase in the number of pregnancies to women with medical comorbidities over the time period. Because the NIS does not include information on gestational age, birthweight, or whether subjects had antepartum testing, we are not able to determine the effect

An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.

Assessing the Controversy between Altimetry, Radiometry, and Scatterometry: Satellite Observation Requirements for Trends in Extreme Winds and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, J.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

A recent study (Young et al. 2011) investigated recent global trends in mean and extreme (90th- and 99th-percentile) wind speed and wave height. Wentz and Ricciardulli (2011) have criticized the study, citing the methodology solely employing data collected from a series of altimetry missions and lack of adequate verification of the results. An earlier study (Wentz et al. 2007) had differing results using data from microwave radiometers and scatterometers. This study serves as a response to these studies, employing a similar methodology but with a different set of data. Data collected from the QuikSCAT and ADEOS-2 SeaWinds scatterometers, SSMI(S), and TOPEX/POSEIDON and JASON-1 altimetry missions are used to calculate trends in the mean, 90th-, and 99th-percentile wind speed and wave height over the period 1999—2009. Linear regression analyses from the satellite missions are verified against regression analyses of data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Temporal sampling presents the most critical consideration in the study. The scatterometers have a much greater independent temporal sampling (about 1.5 observations per day per satellite) than the altimeters (about 1 observation per 10 days). With this consideration, the satellite data are also used to sample the wind speeds in the ERA-Interim dataset. That portion of the study indicates the sampling requirements needed to accurately estimate the trends in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Wentz, F.J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235. Wentz, F.J. and L. Ricciardulli, 2011: Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height." Science, 334, 905. Young, I.R., S. Zieger, and A.V. Babanin, 2011a: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 332, 451-455.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hothem, R.L.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.; Marois, Katherine C.; Wainwright, S.E.

1995-01-01

Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California's San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p'-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time, At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-11-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

Spatio-temporal observations of tertiary ozone maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofieva, V. F.; Kyrölä, E.; Verronen, P. T.; Seppälä, A.; Tamminen, J.; Marsh, D. R.; Smith, A. K.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Dalaudier, F.; Fussen, D.; Vanhellemont, F.; Fanton D'Andon, O.; Barrot, G.; Guirlet, M.; Fehr, T.; Saavedra, L.

2009-03-01

We present spatio-temporal distributions of tertiary ozone maximum (TOM), based on GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) ozone measurements in 2002-2006. The tertiary ozone maximum is typically observed in the high-latitude winter mesosphere at altitude ~72 km. Although the explanation for this phenomenon has been found recently - low concentrations of odd-hydrogen cause the subsequent decrease in odd-oxygen losses - models have had significant deviations from existing observations until recently. Good coverage of polar night regions by GOMOS data has allowed for the first time obtaining spatial and temporal observational distributions of night-time ozone mixing ratio in the mesosphere. The distributions obtained from GOMOS data have specific features, which are variable from year to year. In particular, due to a long lifetime of ozone in polar night conditions, the downward transport of polar air by the meridional circulation is clearly observed in the tertiary ozone maximum time series. Although the maximum tertiary ozone mixing ratio is achieved close to the polar night terminator (as predicted by the theory), TOM can be observed also at very high latitudes, not only in the beginning and at the end, but also in the middle of winter. We have compared the observational spatio-temporal distributions of tertiary ozone maximum with that obtained using WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) and found that the specific features are reproduced satisfactorily by the model. Since ozone in the mesosphere is very sensitive to HOx concentrations, energetic particle precipitation can significantly modify the shape of the ozone profiles. In particular, GOMOS observations have shown that the tertiary ozone maximum was temporarily destroyed during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events as a result of the HOx enhancement from the increased ionization.

Biomonitoring of metals under the water framework directive: detecting temporal trends and abrupt changes, in relation to the removal of pollution sources.

PubMed

Solaun, O; Rodríguez, J G; Borja, A; González, M; Saiz-Salinas, J I

2013-02-15

Temporal trends in metal concentrations, i.e. Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn, measured in soft tissues of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters collected from estuarine waters within the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), have been investigated to determine if actions undertaken have improved the environmental quality of rivers and estuaries. Data compiled between 1990 and 2010 have been analysed statistically, applying the Mann-Kendall and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Moreover, in those cases with significant trends, the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive (KZA) filter was applied to detect abrupt changes. Results showed significant decreasing trends for some metals, i.e. Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn, and differences between medians. Trend lines showed abrupt changes occurring between 1998 and 2002. Therefore, observed downward trends were related to increased wastewater treatment and diversions of discharges to ocean, implemented mainly during 2000-2002. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in adolescent pregnancies in Lombardy, Italy: 1996-2010.

PubMed

Parazzini, Fabio; Ricci, Elena; Cipriani, Sonia; Motta, Tiziano; Chiaffarino, Francesca; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bulfoni, Giuseppe

2013-04-01

Data from southern European countries concerning teenage pregnancy have not been properly analysed so far. We provide the temporal trend of adolescent pregnancy rates in Lombardy, Northern Italy. Using the hospital discharge register (1996-2010), teenage pregnancy-related admission rates per 1000 girls aged 13 to 19 years, residing in Lombardy, were computed. Miscarriage-, induced abortion-, and delivery ratios/100 pregnancies, and caesarean section ratio/100 deliveries, were calculated. The pregnancy rate increased from 9.07 in 1996-2000 to 10.20 in 2001-2005, and remained at that level (10.27) in 2006-2010. However, the rates by country of birth (native Italian and non-native Italian) showed a steady decline in 2003-2010, when data about residents in Lombardy, categorised by sex, age and country of birth, were available. The induced abortion rate rose from 5.38/1000 to 5.55/1000, then decreased slightly in 2006-2010. The abortion ratio/100 pregnancies diminished from 59.3 in 1996-2000 to 50.3 in 2006-2010. Between 1996 and 2010, the overall teenage pregnancy rate has risen in Lombardy. When the rates were calculated separately for adolescents born in Italy and immigrants, the trends reverted in the period 2003-2010: in both groups pregnancy- and birth rates steadily declined. Pregnancy-, abortion-, and birth rates in non-native Italians, after having dropped, are all still much higher than those among native Italians. Because the number of non-native Italian adolescent girls markedly increased over the last two decades, their group--with decreasing, but still higher, birth- and abortion rates--has caused the observed rise in those rates when all adolescents residing in Lombardy are considered indistinctly.

Temporal trends in gaseous mercury evasion from the Mediterranean seawaters.

PubMed

Ferrara, R; Mazzolai, B; Lanzillotta, E; Nucaro, E; Pirrone, N

2000-10-02

Mercury evasion from seawaters is considered to be one of the main natural sources of mercury released to the atmosphere. The temporal evolution of this mechanism is related to biotic and abiotic processes that produce mercury in its elemental form and as DGM. The efficiency of these processes depends upon the intensity of the solar radiation, the ambient temperature of the air parcel above the seawater, and the water temperature. In the Mediterranean region, the magnitude of these mechanisms are particularly significant, due to favorable climate conditions and to the presence of large cinnabar deposits that cross the whole region; all these synergic factors yield significant evasional fluxes of mercury from the surface water during most of the annual period. In this work, mercury fluxes were measured by using a floating flux chamber connected to an atomic absorption analyzer. Photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and UV components of the solar radiation were measured using the same system adopted in the EC 'ELDONet project'. The measurements of the mercury evasional fluxes were carried out at three sites of the northern Tyrrhenian Sea during 1998. Two sites were located at unpolluted and polluted coastal areas, and the third was an offshore site. The evasional flux showed a typical daily trend, highest at midday when the ambient temperature and solar radiation were at the maximum, and lowest, near to zero, during the night. Besides the day-night behavior, a seasonal trend was also observed, with minimum values during the winter period (0.7-2.0 ng/m2 h) and maximum values during the summer (10-13 ng/m2 h).

Temporal trends in 137Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four tree species in Japanese forests from 2011 to 2016.

PubMed

Ohashi, Shinta; Kuroda, Katsushi; Takano, Tsutomu; Suzuki, Youki; Fujiwara, Takeshi; Abe, Hisashi; Kagawa, Akira; Sugiyama, Masaki; Kubojima, Yoshitaka; Zhang, Chunhua; Yamamoto, Koichi

2017-11-01

To understand the changes in radiocesium ( 137 Cs) concentrations in stem woods after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, we investigated 137 Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four major tree species at multiple sites with different levels of radiocesium deposition from the FDNPP accident since 2011 (since 2012 at some sites): Japanese cedar at four sites, hinoki cypress and Japanese konara oak at two sites, and Japanese red pine at one site. Our previous report on 137 Cs concentrations in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2015 suggested that temporal variations were different among sites even within the same species. In the present study, we provided data on bark and whole wood samples in 2016 and separately measured 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood and heartwood samples from 2011 to 2016; we further discussed temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in each part of tree stems, particularly those in 137 Cs distributions between sapwood and heartwood, in relation to their species and site dependencies. Temporal trends in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2016 were consistent with those reported in samples collected from 2011 to 2015. Temporal variations in 137 Cs concentrations in barks showed either a decreasing trend or no clear trend, implying that 137 Cs deposition in barks is inhomogeneous and that decontamination is relatively slow in some cases. Temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood were different among species and also among sites within the same species. Relatively common trends within the same species, which were increasing, were observed in cedar heartwood, and in oak sapwood and whole wood. On the other hand, the ratio of 137 Cs concentration in heartwood to that in sapwood (fresh weight basis) was commonly increased to more than 2 in cedar, although distinct temporal trends were not found in the other species, for

Temporal trends and factors associated with diabetes mellitus among patients hospitalized with heart failure: Findings from Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry.

PubMed

Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Xu, Haolin; DeVore, Adam D; Schulte, Phillip J; Butler, Javed; Yancy, Clyde W; Bhatt, Deepak L; Hernandez, Adrian F; Heidenreich, Paul A; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-12-01

The contribution of diabetes to the burden of heart failure (HF) remains largely undescribed. Assessing diabetes temporal trends among US patients hospitalized with HF and their relation with quality measures in real-world practice can help to define this burden. Using data from the Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure registry, we assessed temporal trends in diabetes prevalence among patients with HF and in subgroups with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF < 40%), borderline EF (HFbEF; 40%≤EF <50%), or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%), hospitalized between 2005 and 2015. Logistic regression was used to assess whether in-hospital outcomes and HF quality of care were related to trends. Among 364,480 HF hospitalizations, 160,171 had diabetes (44.0% overall, 41.8% in HFrEF, 46.7% in HFbEF, 45.5% in HFpEF). There was a temporal increase in diabetes frequency in HF patients (43.2%-45.8%; P trend <.0001), including among those with HFrEF (42.0%-43.6%; P trend <.0001), HFbEF (46.0%-49.2%; P trend <.0001), or HFpEF (43.6%-46.8%, P trend <.0001). Diabetic patients had a longer hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.16), but lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.93 [0.89-0.97]) compared with those without diabetes, with limited differences in quality measures. Temporal trends in diabetes were not associated with in-hospital mortality or length of stay. There were no temporal interactions of most HF quality measures with diabetes status. Approximately 44% of hospitalized HF patients have diabetes, and this proportion has been increasing over the past 10years, particularly among those patients with new-onset HFpEF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Temporal trends in pharmacology publications by pharmacy institutes: A deeper dig

PubMed Central

Bhatt, Parloop Amit; Patel, Zarana

2016-01-01

Objective: Publications in Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) are the face of contemporary pharmacology practices followed in health-care profession - a knowledge-based profession. It depicts trends in terms of quantity (proportions), quality, type (preclinical/clinical), thrust areas, etc., of pharmacology followed by biomedical community professions both nationally and internationally. This article aims to establish temporal trends in pharmacology research by pharmacy institutes in light of its publications to IJP from 2010 to 2015. Methodology: The website of IJP was searched for publications year and issue wise for contributing authors from pharmacy institutions and analyzed for types of publications, their source and the categories of research documented in these publications. Results: A total of 1034 articles were published, of which 189 (18%) articles were published by pharmacy institutes, of which 90% (n = 170) were contributed from pharmacy institutes within India whereas 10% (n = 19) from international pharmacy institutes. 75% of these were research publication, the majority of which (65%) were related to preclinical screening of phytochemical constituents from plants. Conclusion: With multi and interdisciplinary collaborations in pharmacy profession the trend needs to improve toward molecular and cellular pharmacology and clinical studies. PMID:28031614

Temporal trends in pharmacology publications by pharmacy institutes: A deeper dig.

PubMed

Bhatt, Parloop Amit; Patel, Zarana

2016-10-01

Publications in Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) are the face of contemporary pharmacology practices followed in health-care profession - a knowledge-based profession. It depicts trends in terms of quantity (proportions), quality, type (preclinical/clinical), thrust areas, etc., of pharmacology followed by biomedical community professions both nationally and internationally. This article aims to establish temporal trends in pharmacology research by pharmacy institutes in light of its publications to IJP from 2010 to 2015. The website of IJP was searched for publications year and issue wise for contributing authors from pharmacy institutions and analyzed for types of publications, their source and the categories of research documented in these publications. A total of 1034 articles were published, of which 189 (18%) articles were published by pharmacy institutes, of which 90% ( n = 170) were contributed from pharmacy institutes within India whereas 10% ( n = 19) from international pharmacy institutes. 75% of these were research publication, the majority of which (65%) were related to preclinical screening of phytochemical constituents from plants. With multi and interdisciplinary collaborations in pharmacy profession the trend needs to improve toward molecular and cellular pharmacology and clinical studies.

Temporal trends and epidemiological aspects of ciguatera in French Polynesia: a 10-year analysis.

PubMed

Chateau-Degat, Marie-Ludivine; Dewailly, Eric; Cerf, Nicole; Nguyen, Ngoc Lam; Huin-Blondey, Marie-Odile; Hubert, Bruno; Laudon, François; Chansin, René

2007-04-01

The purpose of this study was to report the temporal trends of the incidence of ciguatera poisoning from 1992 to 2001 in French Polynesia. This retrospective study analysed 7842 cases of ciguatera disease recorded over a period of 10 years. The annual incidence varied from 26.3 to 41.9 per 10,000 person-years. An analysis of cases grouped by archipelago revealed differences in incidences (P < 0.0001) with the most remote archipelagos having the highest incidences. A detailed analysis on a sub-sample of recorded cases for which clinical information was available (n = 1824) confirmed the neurological and gastrointestinal nature of this seafood poisoning. The incidence of ciguatera poisoning appeared relatively stable during the 10 years of the study period. However, the gradient of remoteness observed suggests an adaptation of management of ciguatera disease to each archipelago.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Temporal trends (1987-2002) of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Lebeuf, Michel; Noël, Michelle; Trottier, Steve; Measures, Lena

2007-09-20

Temporal trends of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals were examined in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. Blubber samples of 86 adult belugas were collected from animals stranded on the shore of the SLE between 1987 and 2002 and analyzed for several regulated PBTs, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p'dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites, chlordane (CHL) and related compounds, hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and Mirex. In addition, time trends of tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol (TCPMOH), two compounds that may origin from DDT formulations, were also examined. Concentrations of most of the PBTs examined had exponentially decreased by at least a factor of two (half-life time (t(1/2))<15 years) in beluga between 1987 and 2002 while no increasing trends were observed for any of the PBTs measured. The decreasing trends of PBT concentrations in SLE beluga may be due to a decline in contamination of its diet following North American and international regulations on the use and production of these compounds or by a change in its diet itself or by a combination of both. Some PBTs did not exhibit any significant trends in beluga possibly because the most intense elimination phase subsequent to legislative regulations occurred prior to the 1987-2002 time period. Other chemicals, such gamma-HCH, did not significantly decrease likely because they are still currently used in some restricted applications. Conversely, alpha-HCH showed a significant decreasing trend indicating that SigmaHCHs is not representative of all HCHs. Both TCPMe and TCPMOH exhibited no trends in beluga during the time period examined. The metabolic capacity of SLE beluga has apparently accelerated the depletion of at least one PBT, namely CB-28/31. A significant relationship between the half-life of PBTs in beluga and log Kow was observed for

Comparing temporal trends of organochlorines in guillemot eggs and Baltic herring: advantages and disadvantage for selecting sentinel species for environmental monitoring.

PubMed

Miller, Aroha; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Danielsson, Sara; Faxneld, Suzanne; Haglund, Peter; Bignert, Anders

2014-09-01

Within Europe, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) is aimed at addressing the chemical status and quality of the marine environment. One of the main goals is to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) in the marine environment. Environmental monitoring of biota e.g., Baltic herring and guillemot eggs, is conducted annually in Sweden to follow temporal changes in environmental contaminants. To determine the suitability of guillemot eggs as a sentinel species for investigating GES, we compared temporal trends of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) in these two species from single sampling sites within Sweden. Lipid content from guillemot eggs was consistently high and stable (yearly mean for >40 years, ∼12%) compared to that of herring (yearly mean for >20 years, ∼3%). A significant decreasing trend of ΣPCDD/F in TEQ WHO1998 was observed in guillemot eggs, but no trend was seen in herring. CB118 significantly decreased in both species, but in the last 10 years this decrease was not significant in herring. A number of advantages, such as high lipid content in the egg and a low coefficient of variation make guillemot suitable as a sentinel species. The advantages and disadvantages of using either guillemot eggs or Baltic herring are compared. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraining Swiss Methane Emissions from Atmospheric Observations: Sensitivities and Temporal Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Stephan; Leuenberger, Markus; Steinbacher, Martin; Eugster, Werner; Meinhardt, Frank; Bergamaschi, Peter; Emmenegger, Lukas; Brunner, Dominik

2017-04-01

Similar to other Western European countries, agricultural sources dominate the methane (CH4) emission budget in Switzerland. 'Bottom-up' estimates of these emissions are still connected with relatively large uncertainties due to considerable variability and uncertainties in observed emission factors for the underlying processes (e.g., enteric fermentation, manure management). Here, we present a regional-scale (˜300 x 200 km2) atmospheric inversion study of CH4 emissions in Switzerland making use of the recently established CarboCount-CH network of four stations on the Swiss Plateau as well as the neighbouring mountain-top sites Jungfraujoch and Schauinsland (Germany). Continuous observations from all CarboCount-CH sites are available since 2013. We use a high-resolution (7 x 7 km2) Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART-COSMO) in connection with two different inversion systems (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter) to estimate spatially and temporally resolved CH4 emissions for the Swiss domain in the period 2013 to 2016. An extensive set of sensitivity inversions is used to assess the overall uncertainty of our inverse approach. In general we find good agreement of the total Swiss CH4 emissions between our 'top-down' estimate and the national 'bottom-up' reporting. In addition, a robust emission seasonality, with reduced winter time values, can be seen in all years. No significant trend or year-to-year variability was observed for the analysed four-year period, again in agreement with a very small downward trend in the national 'bottom-up' reporting. Special attention is given to the influence of boundary conditions as taken from different global scale model simulations (TM5, FLEXPART) and remote observations. We find that uncertainties in the boundary conditions can induce large offsets in the national total emissions. However, spatial emission patterns are less sensitive to the choice of boundary condition. Furthermore and in order to demonstrate the

Temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after very early preterm premature rupture of fetal membranes.

PubMed

González-Mesa, Ernesto; Herrera, José A; Urgal, Amaya; Lazarraga, Cristina; Benítez, María J; Gómez, Cristina

2012-08-01

This paper shows temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after preterm premature rupture of membranes at or before 28 weeks (very early PPROM). We have studied retrospectively medical records of all cases of very early PPROM attended in our Obstetric Department from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A total of 327 cases of very early PPROM were attended, representing 0.4 % of all deliveries, 3.68 % of all preterm births and 15 % of cases all of PPROM. The mean gestational age at delivery was 27 weeks (range 20-34). The mean duration of latency period for the total of 327 cases was 12.1 days (range 0-83, SD 13.3), with a clear trend to its increase from 2005 (p < 0.05). The mean duration of latency period was largest in 2010 (p < 0.05). For the whole period 2000-2010, perinatal deaths reached 30.6 % of all cases, with a clear trend to decrease as gestational age at diagnosis increased, and over the years of study. We have also found a high rate of obstetric complications and a high rate of cesarean deliveries. The upward trend in the duration of latency period in all groups over the years of study and the encouraging perinatal survival observed, even in previable PPROM, are incentives to follow expectant/conservative management in these cases.

Recent Temporal Trends in Parent-Reported Physical Activity in Children in the United States, 2009 to 2014.

PubMed

Loprinzi, Paul D; Davis, Robert E

2016-04-01

The objective of this study was to provide recent temporal trends in parent-reported physical activity in children (6-11 years) between 2009 and 2014. Data from the 2009 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. The analytic sample included 3946 children. Parent proxy of child physical activity at each of the 3 2-year cycles was assessed. For the entire sample, there was a quadratic trend, with the number of days children engaged in at least 60 min/d of physical activity increasing in the period 2011 to 2012 (6.12 days) when compared with the period 2009 to 2010 (5.96 days) and then decreasing in the period 2013 to 2014 (5.83 days). A similar quadratic trend was evident for boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites (particularly boys), and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age percentile based on sex. A negative linear trend was observed for those above the poverty level and non-Hispanic whites (particularly girls). In conclusion, these findings provide suggestive evidence that over the past 6 years (1999-2014), parents report that children's physical activity has slightly decreased in the latest years, with this observation being most pronounced in boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites, and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age and sex percentile. Encouragingly, however, across all evaluated subpopulations, most children (55%-82%), as determined by their parents, engaged in 60 min/d of physical activity (consistent with government recommendations). Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trend in Wood Dust Exposure During the Production of Wood Pellets.

PubMed

Eriksson, Kåre; Bryngelsson, Ing-Liss; Hagström, Katja

2017-05-01

Wood dust data collected in the production of wood pellets during 2001 to 2013 were evaluated to study a temporal trend in inhalation exposure. A linear mixed effects model of natural ln-transformed data was used to express the relative annual difference in inhalation wood dust exposure. There was an annual decrease of -20.5% of the geometric mean wood dust exposure during 2001 until 2013. The results were based on 617 inhalable dust samples collected at 14 different production units. The exposure to wood dust at the industrial premises investigated has decreased from a relatively high level of 6.4 mg m-3 in 2001 to 1.0 mg-3 in 2013. The Swedish Occupational Exposure Limit (SOEL) of 2 mg m-3 may still be exceeded. Analysis of the temporal trend in soft wood production units revealed declines in exposure of 20.5% per annum. It is important that precautions are taken to protect workers from a hazardous exposure to wood dust at the premises as the SOEL of 2 mg m-3 at some occasions is still exceeded. Additional measurements of wood dust exposure should be carried out on a regular basis in wood pellet production units in Sweden as well in other countries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Temporal Trends in Exposure to Organophosphate Flame Retardants in the United States

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

During the past decade, use of organophosphate compounds as flame retardants and plasticizers has increased. Numerous studies investigating biomarkers (i.e., urinary metabolites) demonstrate ubiquitous human exposure and suggest that human exposure may be increasing. To formally assess temporal trends, we combined data from 14 U.S. epidemiologic studies for which our laboratory group previously assessed exposure to two commonly used organophosphate compounds, tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and triphenyl phosphate (TPHP). Using individual-level data and samples collected between 2002 and 2015, we assessed temporal and seasonal trends in urinary bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BDCIPP) and diphenyl phosphate (DPHP), the metabolites of TDCIPP and TPHP, respectively. Data suggest that BDCIPP concentrations have increased dramatically since 2002. Samples collected in 2014 and 2015 had BDCIPP concentrations that were more than 15 times higher than those collected in 2002 and 2003 (10β = 16.5; 95% confidence interval from 9.64 to 28.3). Our results also demonstrate significant increases in DPHP levels; however, increases were much smaller than for BDCIPP. Additionally, results suggest that exposure varies seasonally, with significantly higher levels of exposure in summer for both TDCIPP and TPHP. Given these increases, more research is needed to determine whether the levels of exposure experienced by the general population are related to adverse health outcomes. PMID:28317001

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

Temporal trends of selected agricultural chemicals in Iowa's groundwater, 1982-1995: Are things getting better?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolpin, D.W.; Sneck-Fahrer, D.; Hallberg, G.R.; Libra, R.D.

1997-01-01

Since 1982, the Iowa Groundwater Monitoring (IGWM) Program has been used to sample untreated groundwater from Iowa municipal wells for selected agricultural chemicals. This long-term database was used to determine if concentrations of select agricultural chemicals in groundwater have changed with time. Nitrate, alachlor [2-chloro-2′-6′-diethyl-N-(methoxymethyl)-acetanilide], atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine), cyanazine [2-[[4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-1,3,5-triazin-2-yl]amino]-2-methylpropionitrile)], and metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide] were selected for this temporal analysis of the data. Conclusive temporal changes in frequency of detection and median chemical concentrations were found only for atrazine (decrease) and metolachlor (increase). The greatest temporal chemical changes occurred in the shallowest wells and in alluvial aquifers—both relating to groups of wells generally having the youngest groundwater age. The temporal patterns found for atrazine and metolachlor are consistent with their patterns of chemical use and/or application rates and are suggestive of a causal relation. Only continued data collection, however, will indicate if the trends in chemical concentrations described here represent long-term temporal patterns or only short-term changes in groundwater. No definitive answers could be made in regards to the question of overall improvements in groundwater quality with respect to agricultural chemical contamination and time, due to the inherent problems with the simplistic measurement of overall severity (summation of alachlor + atrazine + cyanazine + metolachlor concentrations) examined for this study. To adequately determine if there is an actual decreasing trend in the overall severity of contamination (improving groundwater quality), the collection of additional water-chemistry data and the investigation of other measures of severity are needed.

Triennial changes in groundwater quality in aquifers used for public supply in California: Utility as indicators of temporal trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K.

2016-01-01

From 2004 to 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples from 1686 wells across the State of California as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board’s Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP). From 2007 to 2013, 224 of these wells were resampled to assess temporal trends in water quality. The samples were analyzed for 216 water-quality constituents, including inorganic and organic compounds as well as isotopic tracers. The resampled wells were grouped into five hydrogeologic zones. A nonparametric hypothesis test was used to test the differences between initial sampling and resampling results to evaluate possible step trends in water-quality, statewide, and within each hydrogeologic zone. The hypothesis tests were performed on the 79 constituents that were detected in more than 5 % of the samples collected during either sampling period in at least one hydrogeologic zone. Step trends were detected for 17 constituents. Increasing trends were detected for alkalinity, aluminum, beryllium, boron, lithium, orthophosphate, perchlorate, sodium, and specific conductance. Decreasing trends were detected for atrazine, cobalt, dissolved oxygen, lead, nickel, pH, simazine, and tritium. Tritium was expected to decrease due to decreasing values in precipitation, and the detection of decreases indicates that the method is capable of resolving temporal trends.

Spatio-temporal observations of the tertiary ozone maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofieva, V. F.; Kyrölä, E.; Verronen, P. T.; Seppälä, A.; Tamminen, J.; Marsh, D. R.; Smith, A. K.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Dalaudier, F.; Fussen, D.; Vanhellemont, F.; Fanton D'Andon, O.; Barrot, G.; Guirlet, M.; Fehr, T.; Saavedra, L.

2009-07-01

We present spatio-temporal distributions of the tertiary ozone maximum (TOM), based on GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) ozone measurements in 2002-2006. The tertiary ozone maximum is typically observed in the high-latitude winter mesosphere at an altitude of ~72 km. Although the explanation for this phenomenon has been found recently - low concentrations of odd-hydrogen cause the subsequent decrease in odd-oxygen losses - models have had significant deviations from existing observations until recently. Good coverage of polar night regions by GOMOS data has allowed for the first time to obtain spatial and temporal observational distributions of night-time ozone mixing ratio in the mesosphere. The distributions obtained from GOMOS data have specific features, which are variable from year to year. In particular, due to a long lifetime of ozone in polar night conditions, the downward transport of polar air by the meridional circulation is clearly observed in the tertiary ozone maximum time series. Although the maximum tertiary ozone mixing ratio is achieved close to the polar night terminator (as predicted by the theory), TOM can be observed also at very high latitudes, not only in the beginning and at the end, but also in the middle of winter. We have compared the observational spatio-temporal distributions of the tertiary ozone maximum with that obtained using WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) and found that the specific features are reproduced satisfactorily by the model. Since ozone in the mesosphere is very sensitive to HOx concentrations, energetic particle precipitation can significantly modify the shape of the ozone profiles. In particular, GOMOS observations have shown that the tertiary ozone maximum was temporarily destroyed during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events as a result of the HOx enhancement from the increased ionization.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Influence of remediation in a mine-impacted river: Metal trends over large spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hornberger, Michelle I.; Luoma, S.N.; Johnson, M.L.; Holyoak, M.

2009-01-01

The effectiveness of mine-waste remediation at the Clark Fork River Superfund site in western Montana, USA, was examined by monitoring metal concentrations in resident biota (caddisfly, Hydropsyche spp.) and bed sediment over a 19-year period. Remediation activities began in 1990 and are ongoing. In the upper 45 km, reduced Cu and Cd concentrations at some sites were coincident with remediation events. However, for a period of three years, the decline in Cu and Cd directly below the treatment ponds was offset by high arsenic concentrations, suggesting that remediation for cations (e.g., Cu and Cd) mobilized anions such as arsenic. The impact of remediation in the middle and lower reaches was confounded by a significant positive relationship between metal bioaccumulation and stream discharge. High flows did not dilute metals but redistributed contaminants throughout the river. The majority of clean-up efforts were focused on reducing metal-rich sediments in the most contaminated upstream reach, implicitly assuming that improvements upstream will positively impact the downstream stations. We tested this assumption by correlating temporal metal trends in sediment between and among stations. The strength of that association (r value) was our indicator of spatial connectivity. Connectivity for both Cu and Cd was strong at small spatial scales. Large-scale connectivity was strongest with Cu since similar temporal reductions were observed at most monitoring stations. The most upstream station, closest to remediation, had the lowest connectivity, but the next three downstream sites were strongly correlated to trends downstream. Targeted remediation in this reach would be an effective approach to positively influencing the downstream stations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society ot America.

The Role of Temporal Trends in Growing Networks

PubMed Central

Ruppin, Eytan; Shavitt, Yuval

2016-01-01

The rich get richer principle, manifested by the Preferential attachment (PA) mechanism, is widely considered one of the major factors in the growth of real-world networks. PA stipulates that popular nodes are bound to be more attractive than less popular nodes; for example, highly cited papers are more likely to garner further citations. However, it overlooks the transient nature of popularity, which is often governed by trends. Here, we show that in a wide range of real-world networks the recent popularity of a node, i.e., the extent by which it accumulated links recently, significantly influences its attractiveness and ability to accumulate further links. We proceed to model this observation with a natural extension to PA, named Trending Preferential Attachment (TPA), in which edges become less influential as they age. TPA quantitatively parametrizes a fundamental network property, namely the network’s tendency to trends. Through TPA, we find that real-world networks tend to be moderately to highly trendy. Networks are characterized by different susceptibilities to trends, which determine their structure to a large extent. Trendy networks display complex structural traits, such as modular community structure and degree-assortativity, occurring regularly in real-world networks. In summary, this work addresses an inherent trait of complex networks, which greatly affects their growth and structure, and develops a unified model to address its interaction with preferential attachment. PMID:27486847

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

PubMed Central

Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Carvalho, Francisco Herlânio Costa; Machado, Márcia Maria Tavares; Heukelbach, Jorg

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Observing laser ablation dynamics with sub-picosecond temporal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tani, Shuntaro; Kobayashi, Yohei

2017-04-01

Laser ablation is one of the most fundamental processes in laser processing, and the understanding of its dynamics is of key importance for controlling and manipulating the outcome. In this study, we propose a novel way of observing the dynamics in the time domain using an electro-optic sampling technique. We found that an electromagnetic field was emitted during the laser ablation process and that the amplitude of the emission was closely correlated with the ablated volume. From the temporal profile of the electromagnetic field, we analyzed the motion of charged particles with subpicosecond temporal resolution. The proposed method can provide new access to observing laser ablation dynamics and thus open a new way to optimize the laser processing.

NATIONAL STATUS AND TRENDS PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Since 1984, the National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program has monitored, on a national scale, spatial and temporal trends of chemical contamination and biological responses to that contamination. Temporal trends are being monitored through the Mussel Watch project that analyzes m...

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age

Temporal trends of contaminants in Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) from a small lake, southwest Greenland during a warming climate.

PubMed

Rigét, Frank; Vorkamp, Katrin; Muir, Derek

2010-12-01

Hg and legacy POPs were analysed in muscle tissue of a landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) population from a small lake in southwest Greenland. Hg concentrations were available for six years and OC concentrations for five years during the period 1994 to 2008. For two years, stable isotope values of nitrogen (δ(15)N) were analysed in muscle tissue in order to infer trophic effects. Hg, Σ10-PCB, ΣDDT and trans-nonachlor concentrations (OC on wet weight basis) showed an increase with increasing fish length, which had to be accounted for when assessing temporal trends. δ(15)N values had a narrow range, and there was no indication of increasing δ(15)N values with char length confirming the sampled char did not vary in trophic morphs as often seen in Arctic lakes. Length-adjusted Hg concentrations showed a significantly increasing trend during the period 1994 to 2008, while Σ10-PCB, ΣDDT, ΣHCH and trans-nonachlor showed a significantly decreasing trend when expressed on wet weight, and decreasing but not significantly when expressed on lipid weight. The reason for this was that the lipid content of muscle showed a significantly decreasing trend with time. The sum of mean monthly air temperature during May to August measured at a nearby meteorological station showed an increasing trend during the study period, and changing temperature conditions probably influenced the temporal trend of especially Hg concentrations and the lipid content.

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Fire in Slash and Burn Agriculture Landscape: A Case Study from Nagaland, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalia, H.; Mondal, P. P.

2014-11-01

Increasing incidences of fire from land conversion and residue burning in tropics is the major concern in global warming. Spatial and temporal monitoring of trends of fire incidences is, therefore, significant in order to determine contribution of carbon emissions from slash and burn agriculture. In this study, we analyzed time-series Terra / Aqua MODIS satellite hotspot products from 2001 to 2013 to derive intra- and inter-annual trends in fire incidences in Nagaland state, located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Time-series regression was applied to MODIS fire products at variable spatial scales in GIS. Significance of change in fire frequency at each grid level was tested using t statistic. Spatial clustering of higher or lower fire incidences across study area was determined using Getis-OrdGi statistic. Maximum fire incidences were encountered in moist mixed deciduous forests (46%) followed by secondary moist bamboo brakes (30%). In most parts of the study area fire incidences peaked during March while in warmer parts (e.g. Mon district dominated by indigenous people) fire activity starts as early as during November and peaks in January. Regression trend analysis captured noticeable areas with statistically significant positive (e.g. Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon, Tuensang and Kiphire districts) and negative (e.g. Kohima and north-western part of Mokokchung district) inter-annual fire frequency trends based on area-based aggregation of fire occurrences at different grid sizes. Localization of spatial clusters of high fire incidences was observed in Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon,Tuensang and Kiphire districts.

a Simple Spatially Weighted Measure of Temporal Stability for Data with Limited Temporal Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piburn, J.; Stewart, R.; Morton, A.

2017-10-01

Identifying erratic or unstable time-series is an area of interest to many fields. Recently, there have been successful developments towards this goal. These new developed methodologies however come from domains where it is typical to have several thousand or more temporal observations. This creates a challenge when attempting to apply these methodologies to time-series with much fewer temporal observations such as for socio-cultural understanding, a domain where a typical time series of interest might only consist of 20-30 annual observations. Most existing methodologies simply cannot say anything interesting with so few data points, yet researchers are still tasked to work within in the confines of the data. Recently a method for characterizing instability in a time series with limitedtemporal observations was published. This method, Attribute Stability Index (ASI), uses an approximate entropy based method tocharacterize a time series' instability. In this paper we propose an explicitly spatially weighted extension of the Attribute StabilityIndex. By including a mechanism to account for spatial autocorrelation, this work represents a novel approach for the characterizationof space-time instability. As a case study we explore national youth male unemployment across the world from 1991-2014.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.; Yoon, J.; Tost, H.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Astitha, M.

2015-05-01

The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from observations and results from simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite sensor, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) observations. Thanks to an additional simulation without any change in emissions, it is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the emissions, while over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological changes play a major role. Over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends. Additionally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content.

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Population surveys in Greenland 1993-2009: temporal trend of PCBs and pesticides in the general Inuit population by age and urbanisation.

PubMed

Bjerregaard, Peter; Pedersen, Henning Sloth; Nielsen, Nina O; Dewailly, Eric

2013-06-01

The purpose of the study was to analyse temporal trends (1993-2009) of the concentrations of organochlorine contaminants (14 congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and 11 pesticides) in the blood of Greenland Inuit according to age and urbanisation. Statistical determinants for the contaminant concentrations included (for PCB congener 153) age (Δr(2)=0.35), marine diet (Δr(2)=0.10), smoking (Δr(2)=0.02), and sex (Δr(2)=0.01) with comparable results for other organochlorine contaminants. After adjustment for age, diet, smoking, and sex a significant decreasing trend was present for all contaminants ranging from 41% for mirex to 56% for hexachlorobenzene. The temporal trend was most pronounced among participants below the age of 65 years. The decrease started later in villages than in towns. The decrease was present in all age groups and in the capital, other towns, and villages. The decrease is probably due to a combination of reduced concentrations of the contaminants in the wildlife and a slight temporal reduction in the consumption of marine mammals. The significant downwards trend of legacy POPs shows that the legislation works but it must be kept in mind that according to the cumulated scientific evidence there are a multitude of non-regulated persistent organic contaminants in the diet as well as high levels of methylmercury. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trends in Sex Differences With Regard to Stroke Incidence: The Dijon Stroke Registry (1987-2012).

PubMed

Giroud, Marie; Delpont, Benoit; Daubail, Benoit; Blanc, Christelle; Durier, Jérôme; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick

2017-04-01

We evaluated temporal trends in stroke incidence between men and women to determine whether changes in the distribution of vascular risk factors have influenced sex differences in stroke epidemiology. Patients with first-ever stroke including ischemic stroke, spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and undetermined stroke between 1987 and 2012 were identified through the population-based registry of Dijon, France. Incidence rates were calculated for age groups, sex, and stroke subtypes. Sex differences and temporal trends (according to 5-year time periods) were evaluated by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with Poisson regression. Four thousand six hundred and fourteen patients with a first-ever stroke (53.1% women) were recorded. Incidence was lower in women than in men (112 versus 166 per 100 000/y; IRR, 0.68; P <0.001), especially in age group 45 to 84 years, and for both ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. From 1987 to 2012, the lower incidence of overall stroke in women was stable (IRR ranging between 0.63 and 0.72 according to study periods). When considering stroke subtype, a slight increase in the incidence of ischemic stroke was observed in both men (IRR, 1.011; 95% confidence interval, 1.005-1.016; P =0.001) and women (IRR, 1.013; 95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.018; P =0.001). The sex gap in incidence remained unchanged in ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. Conversely, the lower subarachnoid hemorrhage incidence in women vanished with time because of an increasing incidence. The sex gap in stroke incidence did not change with time except for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Despite lower rates, more women than men experience an incident stroke each year because of a longer life expectancy. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Temporal trends in physical violence, gender differences and spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences.

PubMed

Cavalcante, Gigliana Maria Sobral; de Macedo Bernardino, Ítalo; da Nóbrega, Lorena Marques; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Ferreira E Ferreira, Efigênia; d'Avila, Sérgio

2018-06-01

The aim of study was to describe trends in physical violence among Brazilian victims and investigate spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences. This study performed an ecological-level longitudinal analysis, examining violence rates over 4 years. Cases of 4795 victims of physical aggression attended at a Center of Legal Medicine were investigated. Trend analysis was used to evaluate the data, with the creation of polynomial regression models (p < 0.05). Violence rates showed significant temporal variations according to sociodemographic characteristics of victims (p < 0.05) and the circumstances of aggressions (p < 0.05). Moreover, there was a significant increase in violence rate in the North (R 2  = 16.1%; p = 0.019) and South (R 2  = 18.4%; p = 0.010), whereas the rural zone (R 2  = 10.1%; p = 0.028) presented a decrease. The findings highlight the need for protection policies that address spatial-temporal aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Comparison of temporal trends in ambient and compliance trace element and PCB data in pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985-1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, J.; Perry, J.

1999-01-01

The Intergovernmental Task Force on Monitoring has suggested studies on ambient (in-stream) and compliance (wastewater) data to determine if monitoring can be reduced locally or nationally. The similarity in temporal trends between retrospective ambient and compliance water-quality data collected from Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, was determined for 1985–1995. Constituents studied included the following trace elements: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), hexavalent chromium (Cr61), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric MannKendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P , 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.

Forty years of quality-of-life research in congenital heart disease: Temporal trends in conceptual and methodological rigor.

PubMed

Bratt, Ewa-Lena; Moons, Philip

2015-09-15

The first study on quality of life (QoL) in patients with congenital heart disease was published 40 years ago. Since then, the number of QoL articles on these patients has grown exponentially. We conducted a systematic literature review of all empirical studies on QoL in patients with congenital heart disease published since 1974, with the aim of determining the range of conceptual and methodological rigor of studies and identifying temporal trends in these parameters. PubMed, Embase, and Cinahl were searched for empirical studies addressing QoL in children, adolescents, or adults with congenital heart disease, published between January 1, 1974, and December 31, 2014. We applied 10 review criteria that were previously developed by Gill and Feinstein in 1994 and further refined by Moons et al. in 2004. Overall, 234 articles were reviewed. We found slight but non-significant temporal improvements in conceptual and methodological rigor and in use of assessment methods. This indicates a trend toward a more professional and exacting approach in QoL assessments. However, the majority of articles still had substantial conceptual and methodological deficits. Furthermore, we observed that citation of the publications of Gill and Feinstein and Moons et al. in published QoL research is associated with higher quality scores, suggesting that these articles have a positive impact on conceptual and methodological caliber. Despite 40 years of QoL research in this field, this review shows that major weaknesses in methodological rigor remain highly prevalent, which may make QoL studies inconclusive. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal patterns in preterm birth in the United States.

PubMed

Byrnes, John; Mahoney, Richard; Quaintance, Cele; Gould, Jeffrey B; Carmichael, Suzan; Shaw, Gary M; Showen, Amy; Phibbs, Ciaran; Stevenson, David K; Wise, Paul H

2015-06-01

Despite years of research, the etiologies of preterm birth remain unclear. In order to help generate new research hypotheses, this study explored spatial and temporal patterns of preterm birth in a large, total-population dataset. Data on 145 million US births in 3,000 counties from the Natality Files of the National Center for Health Statistics for 1971-2011 were examined. State trends in early (<34 wk) and late (34-36 wk) preterm birth rates were compared. K-means cluster analyses were conducted to identify gestational age distribution patterns for all US counties over time. A weak association was observed between state trends in <34 wk birth rates and the initial absolute <34 wk birth rate. Significant associations were observed between trends in <34 wk and 34-36 wk birth rates and between white and African American <34 wk births. Periodicity was observed in county-level trends in <34 wk birth rates. Cluster analyses identified periods of significant heterogeneity and homogeneity in gestational age distributional trends for US counties. The observed geographic and temporal patterns suggest periodicity and complex, shared influences among preterm birth rates in the United States. These patterns could provide insight into promising hypotheses for further research.

Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in Aboveground Biomass within the Acadian New England Forests using the complete Landsat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbride, J. B.; Fraver, S.; Ayrey, E.; Weiskittel, A.; Braaten, J.; Hughes, J. M.; Hayes, D. J.

2017-12-01

Forests within the New England states and Canadian Maritime provinces, here described as the Acadian New England (ANE) forests, have undergone substantial disturbances due to insect, fire, and anthropogenic factors. Through repeated satellite observations captures by USGS's Landsat program, 45 years of disturbance information can be incorporated into modeling efforts to better understand the spatial and temporal trends in forest above ground biomass (AGB). Using Google's Earth Engine, annual mosaics were developed for the ANE study area and then disturbance and recovery metrics were developed using the temporal segmentation algorithm VeRDET. Normalization procedures were developed to incorporate the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972 - 1985) data alongside the modern era of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1984-2013), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 1999 - present), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2013- present) data products. This has enabled the creation of a dataset with an unprecedented spatial and temporal view of forest landscape change. Model training was performed using was the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and New Brunswick Permanent Sample Plot data datasets. Modeling was performed using parametric techniques such as mixed effects models and non-parametric techniques such as k-NN imputation and generalized boosted regression. We compare the biomass estimate and model accuracy to other inventory and modeling studies produced within this study area. The spatial and temporal patterns of stock changes are analyzed against resource policy, land ownership changes, and forest management.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

Temporal Trends in Phthalate Exposures: Findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001–2010

PubMed Central

Calafat, Antonia M.; Woodruff, Tracey J.

2014-01-01

Background: Phthalates are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. Because of potential adverse effects on human health, butylbenzyl phthalate [BBzP; metabolite, monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP)], di-n-butyl phthalate [DnBP; metabolite, mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP)], and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) are being replaced by substitutes including other phthalates; however, little is known about consequent trends in population-level exposures. Objective: We examined temporal trends in urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites in the general U.S. population and whether trends vary by sociodemographic characteristics. Methods: We combined data on 11 phthalate metabolites for 11,071 participants from five cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001–2010). Percent changes and least square geometric means (LSGMs) were calculated from multivariate regression models. Results: LSGM concentrations of monoethyl phthalate, MnBP, MBzP, and ΣDEHP metabolites decreased between 2001–2002 and 2009–2010 [percent change (95% CI): –42% (–49, –34); –17% (–23, –9); –32% (–39, –23) and –37% (–46, –26), respectively]. In contrast, LSGM concentrations of monoisobutyl phthalate, mono(3-carboxypropyl) phthalate (MCPP), monocarboxyoctyl phthalate, and monocarboxynonyl phthalate (MCNP) increased over the study period [percent change (95% CI): 206% (178, 236); 25% (8, 45); 149% (102, 207); and 15% (1, 30), respectively]. Trends varied by subpopulations for certain phthalates. For example, LSGM concentrations of ΣDEHP metabolites, MCPP, and MCNP were higher in children than adults, but the gap between groups narrowed over time (pinteraction < 0.01). Conclusions: Exposure of the U.S. population to phthalates has changed in the last decade. Data gaps make it difficult to explain trends, but legislative activity and advocacy campaigns by nongovernmental organizations may play a role in changing trends. Citation: Zota AZ, Calafat AM

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the

Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

2015-05-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America

PubMed Central

Arcoverde, Marcos Augusto Moraes; Ramos, Antônio Carlos Viera; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thais Zamboni; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Alves, Josilene Dália; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Silva-Sobrinho, Reinaldo Antônio; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Tavares, Clodis Maria; Yamamura, Mellina; Frade, Marco Andrey Cipriani; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. Conclusion The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study’s highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region. PMID:29624595

Empirical Corrections for MISR Calibration Temporal Trends, Point-Spread Function, Flat-Fielding, and Ghosting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limbacher, J.; Kahn, R. A.

2015-12-01

MISR aerosol optical depth retrievals are fairly robust to small radiometric calibration artifacts, due to the multi-angle observations. However, even small errors in the MISR calibration, especially structured artifacts in the imagery, have a disproportionate effect on the retrieval of aerosol properties from these data. Using MODIS, POLDER-3, AERONET, MAN, and MISR lunar images, we diagnose and correct various calibration and radiometric artifacts found in the MISR radiance (Level 1) data, using empirical image analysis. The calibration artifacts include temporal trends in MISR top-of-atmosphere reflectance at relatively stable desert sites and flat-fielding artifacts detected by comparison to MODIS over bright, low-contrast scenes. The radiometric artifacts include ghosting (as compared to MODIS, POLDER-3, and forward model results) and point-spread function mischaracterization (using the MISR lunar data and MODIS). We minimize the artifacts to the extent possible by parametrically modeling the artifacts and then removing them from the radiance (reflectance) data. Validation is performed using non-training scenes (reflectance comparison), and also by using the MISR Research Aerosol retrieval algorithm results compared to MAN and AERONET.

Monotonic trends in spatio-temporal distribution and concentration of monsoon precipitation (1901-2002), West Bengal, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Soumendu; Khan, Ansar; Akbari, Hashem; Wang, Yupeng

2016-12-01

This paper intended to investigate spatio-temporal monotonic trend and shift in concentration of monsoon precipitation across West Bengal, India, by analysing the time series of monthly precipitation from 18 weather stations during the period from 1901 to 2002. In dealing with, the inhomogeneity in the precipitation series, RHtestsV4 software package is used to detect, and adjust for, multiple change points (shifts) that could exist in data series. Finally, the cumulative deviation test was applied at 5% significant level to check the homogeneity (presence of historic changes by cumulative deviations test). Afterward, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE) was applied to detect of nature and slope of trends; and, Sequential Mann Kendall (SQMK) test was applied for detection of turning point and magnitude of change in trends. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation in precipitation data series. Four indices- precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and fulcrum (centre of gravity) were used to detect precipitation concentration and the spatial pattern in it. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide monotonic trend for monsoon precipitation time series. Regional cluster analysis by SQMK found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general, except during the non- monsoon seasons. The results show that higher PCI values were mainly observed in South Bengal, whereas lower PCI values were mostly detected in North Bengal. The PCI values are noticeably larger in places where both monsoon total precipitation and span of rainy season are lower. The results of PCP reveal that precipitation in Gangetic Bengal mostly occurs in summer (monsoon season), and the rainy season arrives earlier in North Bengal than South Bengal

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino

Temporal trend of anemia among reproductive-aged women in India.

PubMed

Bharati, Susmita; Pal, Manoranjan; Som, Suparna; Bharati, Premananda

2015-03-01

Anemia is one of the major leading nutritional deficiencies in India, and the most vulnerable groups are preschool and adolescent children and pregnant and lactating women. The main objective of the study is to determine the temporal trend of anemia among reproductive-aged women of age 15-49 years. The study uses data from second and third rounds of the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-2, 1998-1999, and NFHS-3, 2005-2006), conducted by the International Institute for Population Sciences. The dependent variable was the status of anemia of women. The determining variables were type of residence, age group, religion and castes, educational status, marital status, and household standard of living index. Anemia was most prevalent in the east zone for both the periods. The changes at the all India level were not much, but the north-east zone improved very well, whereas the south zone deteriorated drastically. The occurrence of severely anemic women in India varied between 1% and 2%. The highest prevalence rates were observed among women who were 15 to 24 years of age, illiterate, from non-Christian scheduled tribes (STs), unmarried, and whose standard of living was low. Rates of anemia have increased over time except in the case of Buddhists, Parsees, Jains, and the STs. From the viewpoint of our study, illiteracy and low standard of living may be the main causes of anemia among women in India. It is also necessary to take appropriate steps to curb anemia in women in their early adulthood. © 2012 APJPH.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Temporal trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors among white, South Asian, Chinese and black groups in Ontario, Canada, 2001 to 2012: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chiu, Maria; Maclagan, Laura C; Tu, Jack V; Shah, Baiju R

2015-08-10

To determine ethnic-specific temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Ontario between 2001 and 2012. A population-based repeated cross-sectional study. Ontario, Canada. 219,276 participants of the Canadian Community Health Survey (205,326 white, 5620 South Asian, 4368 Chinese and 3962 black) during the period 2001 to 2012. Age-standardised ethnic-sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors for three time periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012 among Canada's four major ethnic groups: white, South Asian, Chinese and black. During the study period, the prevalence of diabetes increased 2.3-fold (p = 0.0001) among South Asian males and 1.9-fold (p = 0.02) among black females. The prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) increased over time across all ethnic groups, with the largest relative increases observed among males of Chinese (2.1-fold increase, p = 0.04) and black (1.7-fold increase, p = 0.06) descent. The prevalence of hypertension increased the most among black females. Smoking prevalence decreased by more than 20% among South Asian, Chinese and white females. Overall, South Asian males and black males and females showed the greatest declines in cardiovascular health over the study period. We observed important ethnic differences in the temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in Ontario. Awareness of the direction and magnitude of these risk factor trends may be useful in informing targeted strategies for preventing cardiovascular diseases in multiethnic populations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

PubMed

Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

2016-07-01

Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using temporal detrending to observe the spatial correlation of traffic.

PubMed

Ermagun, Alireza; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu; Levinson, David

2017-01-01

This empirical study sheds light on the spatial correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. We mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the spatial correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a major sub-network of the Minneapolis-St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose the positive and negative correlation between links, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, we develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The spatial correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective of the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted spatial correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models.

Temporal trend and source apportionment of water pollution in different functional zones of Qiantang River, China.

PubMed

Su, Shiliang; Li, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Xiao, Rui; Huang, Fang; Wu, Jiaping

2011-02-01

The increasingly serious river water pollution in developing countries poses great threat to environmental health and human welfare. The assignment of river function to specific uses, known as zoning, is a useful tool to reveal variations of water environmental adaptability to human impact. Therefore, characterizing the temporal trend and identifying responsible pollution sources in different functional zones could greatly improve our knowledge about human impacts on the river water environment. The aim of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of temporal trends and sources of water pollution in different functional zones with a case study of the Qiantang River, China. Measurement data were obtained and pretreated for 13 variables from 41 monitoring sites in four categories of functional zones during the period 1996-2004. An exploratory approach, which combines smoothing and non-parametric statistical tests, was applied to characterize trends of four significant parameters (permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, total cadmium and fluoride) accounting for differences among different functional zones identified by discriminant analysis. Aided by GIS, yearly pollution index (PI) for each monitoring site was further mapped to compare the within-group variations in temporal dynamics for different functional zones. Rotated principal component analysis and receptor model (absolute principle component score-multiple linear regression, APCS-MLR) revealed that potential pollution sources and their corresponding contributions varied among the four functional zones. Variations of APCS values for each site of one functional zone as well as their annual average values highlighted the uncertainties associated with cross space-time effects in source apportionment. All these results reinforce the notion that the concept of zoning should be taken seriously in water pollution control. Being applicable to other rivers, the framework of management-oriented source apportionment

Spatial and temporal trends and flow dynamics of glyphosate and other pesticides within an agricultural watershed in Argentina.

PubMed

Pérez, Débora J; Okada, Elena; De Gerónimo, Eduardo; Menone, Mirta L; Aparicio, Virginia C; Costa, José L

2017-12-01

In the present study, we evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of current-use pesticides in surface water and sediments as well as their relationship with hydrological stream dynamics within the agricultural watershed of El Crespo stream (Buenos Aires Province, Argentina). We sampled 2 contrasting sites: site 1 (upstream), surrounded by agricultural lands, and site 2 (downstream), surrounded by natural grasslands. Most of the applied pesticides (glyphosate, 2,4-D, atrazine, tebuconazole, and imidacloprid) were detected at high frequencies in surface water samples at both sites. However, only glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were present at high concentrations and had a significant spatial-temporal trend. The highest concentrations were found during spring 2014 at site 1, in association with the intense rains that occurred in that season. The fact that glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were higher than the rest of the studied compounds is closely related to the land use within the watershed, as glyphosate was the most applied herbicide during the fallow period of glyphosate-resistant crops (soybean, maize). The pesticide mixture had a significant spatial-temporal trend, reaching the highest levels during storm flow events in spring 2014. The intensive rains in spring 2014 could be the main factor influencing stream hydrology and pesticide behavior at El Crespo watershed. The estimated annual pesticide losses were 3.11 g/ha at site 1 and 0.72 g/ha at site 2. This result indicates that an attenuation process could be decreasing pesticide loads during downstream transport from site 1 to site 2. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:3206-3216. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Temporal Trends in Clinical and Pathological Characteristics for Men Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy Between 1995 and 2013 at Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark, and Stanford University Hospital, United States.

PubMed

Loft, Mathias Dyrberg; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Kjaer, Andreas; Iversen, Peter; Ferrari, Michelle; Zhang, Chiyuan A; Brasso, Klaus; Brooks, James D; Røder, Martin Andreas

2017-09-06

To analyze how prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and practice patterns has affected trends in tumor characteristics in men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) in the United States and Denmark. Unlike in the United States, PSA screening has not been recommended in Denmark. We performed an observational register study using pre- and postoperative data on 2168 Danish patients from Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark, and 2236 patients from Stanford University Hospital, Stanford, CA, who underwent RP between 1995 and 2013. Patients were stratified according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment-Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) risk groups and D'Amico risk classification and were clustered into 4 time periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2013). Temporal trends in the proportions of patients of a given variable at the 2 institutions were evaluated with Cochran-Armitage test for trends and chi-square testing. A total of 4404 patients were included. Temporal changes in preoperative PSA, age, grade, and stage was found in both cohorts. Median preoperative PSA declined in both cohorts, while median age increased, with the Danish cohort showing the greatest changes in both PSA and age. In both cohorts, there was a trend for higher-risk preoperative features before RP over time. In 2010-2013, 27.7% and 21.8% of the patients were in the D'Amico high-risk group at Copenhagen and Stanford, respectively. Despite recommendation against PSA screening in Denmark, Danish men undergoing RP at Rigshospitalet to a considerable extent now resemble American men undergoing RP at Stanford. At both sites, there is continued trend to reduce the number of men undergoing RP for low-risk prostate cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

A power analysis for multivariate tests of temporal trend in species composition.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Dinger, Eric C; Sarr, Daniel

2011-10-01

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.

Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in arctic air: 20 years of monitoring under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).

PubMed

Hung, Hayley; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios A; Brorström-Lundén, Eva; Olafsdottir, Kristin; Aas, Wenche; Breivik, Knut; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Sigurdsson, Arni; Hakola, Hannele; Bossi, Rossana; Skov, Henrik; Sverko, Ed; Barresi, Enzo; Fellin, Phil; Wilson, Simon

2016-10-01

Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) measured in Arctic air are essential in understanding long-range transport to remote regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of national and international chemical control initiatives, such as the Stockholm Convention (SC) on POPs. Long-term air monitoring of POPs is conducted under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) at four Arctic stations: Alert, Canada; Stórhöfði, Iceland; Zeppelin, Svalbard; and Pallas, Finland, since the 1990s using high volume air samplers. Temporal trends observed for POPs in Arctic air are summarized in this study. Most POPs listed for control under the SC, e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and chlordanes, are declining slowly in Arctic air, reflecting the reduction of primary emissions during the last two decades and increasing importance of secondary emissions. Slow declining trends also signifies their persistence and slow degradation under the Arctic environment, such that they are still detectable after being banned for decades in many countries. Some POPs, e.g. hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and lighter PCBs, showed increasing trends at specific locations, which may be attributable to warming in the region and continued primary emissions at source. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) do not decline in air at Canada's Alert station but are declining in European Arctic air, which may be due to influence of local sources at Alert and the much higher historical usage of PBDEs in North America. Arctic air samples are screened for chemicals of emerging concern to provide information regarding their environmental persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP), which are important criteria for classification as a POP under SC. The AMAP network provides consistent and comparable air monitoring data of POPs for trend development and acts as a bridge between national monitoring programs and SC's Global Monitoring

Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes.

PubMed

Blukacz-Richards, E Agnes; Visha, Ariola; Graham, Matthew L; McGoldrick, Daryl L; de Solla, Shane R; Moore, David J; Arhonditsis, George B

2017-04-01

Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal trends in poly- and per-fluorinated compounds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Erie, Ontario and St. Clair.

PubMed

Codling, Garry; Sturchio, Neil C; Rockne, Karl J; Li, An; Peng, H; Tse, Timothy J; Jones, Paul D; Giesy, John P

2018-06-01

The temporal and spatial trends in sediment of 22 poly- and perfluorinated (PFAS) compounds were investigated in the southern Great Lakes Erie and Ontario as well as Lake St. Clair. Surface concentrations measured by Ponar grab samples indicated a trend for greater concentrations near to urban sites. Mean concentrations ∑ 22 PFAS were 15.6, 18.2 and 19 ng g -1 dm for Lakes St. Clair, Erie and Ontario, respectively. Perfluoro-n-butanoic acid (PFBA) and Perfluoro-n-hexanoic acid (PFHxA) were frequently determined in surface sediment and upper core samples indicating a shift in use patterns. Where PFBA was identified it was at relatively great concentrations typically >10 ng g -1 dm. However as PFBA and PFHxA are less likely to bind to sediment they may be indicative of pore water concentrations Sedimentation rates between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario differ greatly with greater rates observed in Lake Erie. In Lake Ontario, in general concentrations of PFAS observed in core samples closely follow the increase in use along with an observable change due to regulation implementation in the 1970s for water protection. However some of the more water soluble PFAS were observed in deeper core layers than the time of production could account for, indicating potential diffusion within the sediment. Given the greater sedimentation rates in Lake Erie, it was hoped to observe in greater resolution changes since the mid-1990s. However, though some decrease was observed at some locations the results are not clear. Many cores in Lake Erie had clearly observable gas voids, indicative of gas ebullition activity due to biogenic production, there were also observable mussel beds that could indicate mixing by bioturbation of core layers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

2018-01-01

Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Complications Following Common Inpatient Urological Procedures: Temporal Trend Analysis from 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Meyer, Christian P; Hollis, Michael; Cole, Alexander P; Hanske, Julian; O'Leary, James; Gupta, Soham; Löppenberg, Björn; Zavaski, Mike E; Sun, Maxine; Sammon, Jesse D; Kibel, Adam S; Fisch, Margit; Chun, Felix K H; Trinh, Quoc-Dien

2016-04-01

Measuring procedure-specific complication-rate trends allows for benchmarking and improvement in quality of care but must be done in a standardized fashion. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified all instances of eight common inpatient urologic procedures performed in the United States between 2000 and 2010. This yielded 327218 cases including both oncologic and benign diseases. Complications were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Each complication was cross-referenced to the procedure code and graded according to the standardized Clavien system. The Mann-Whitney and chi-square were used to assess the statistical significance of medians and proportions, respectively. We assessed temporal variability in the rates of overall complications (Clavien grade 1-4), length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality using the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) linear regression methodology. We observed an overall reduction in length of stay (EAPC: -1.59; p<0.001), whereas mortality rates remained negligible and unchanged (EAPC: -0.32; p=0.83). Patient comorbidities increased significantly over the study period (EAPC: 2.09; p<0.001), as did the rates of complications. Procedure-specific trends showed a significant increase in complications for inpatient ureterorenoscopy (EAPC: 5.53; p<0.001), percutaneous nephrolithotomy (EAPC: 3.75; p<0.001), radical cystectomy (EAPC: 1.37; p<0.001), radical nephrectomy (EAPC: 1.35; p<0.001), and partial nephrectomy (EAPC: 1.22; p=0.006). Limitations include lack of postdischarge follow-up data, lack of pathologic characteristics, and inability to adjust for secular changes in administrative coding. In the context of urologic care in the United States, our findings suggest a shift toward more complex oncologic procedures in the inpatient setting, with same-day procedures most likely shifted to the outpatient setting. Consequently, complications have increased for the majority of

Temporal trends of postinjury multiple-organ failure: Still resource intensive, morbid, and lethal

PubMed Central

Sauaia, Angela; Moore, Ernest E.; Johnson, Jeffrey L.; Chin, Theresa L.; Banerjee, Anirban; Sperry, Jason L.; Maier, Ronald V.; Burlew, C. Cothren

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND While the incidence of postinjury multiple-organ failure (MOF) has declined during the past decade, temporal trends of its morbidity, mortality, presentation patterns, and health care resources use have been inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to describe the evolving epidemiology of postinjury MOF from 2003 to 2010 in multiple trauma centers sharing standard treatment protocols. METHODS “Inflammation and Host Response to Injury Collaborative Program” institutions that enrolled more than 20 eligible patients per biennial during the 2003 to 2010 study period were included. The patients were aged 16 years to 90 years, sustained blunt torso trauma with hemorrhagic shock (systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg, base deficit ≥ 6 mEq/L, blood transfusion within the first 12 hours), but without severe head injury (motor Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score < 4). MOF temporal trends (Denver MOF score > 3) were adjusted for admission risk factors (age, sex, body max index, Injury Severity Score [ISS], systolic blood pressure, and base deficit) using survival analysis. RESULTS A total of 1,643 patients from four institutions were evaluated. MOF incidence decreased over time (from 17% in 2003–2004 to 9.8% in 2009–2010). MOF-related death rate (33% in 2003–2004 to 36% in 2009–2010), intensive care unit stay, and mechanical ventilation duration did not change over the study period. Adjustment for admission risk factors confirmed the crude trends. MOF patients required much longer ventilation and intensive care unit stay, compared with non-MOF patients. Most of the MOF-related deaths occurred within 2 days of the MOF diagnosis. Lung and cardiac dysfunctions became less frequent (57.6% to 50.8%, 20.9% to 12.5%, respectively), but kidney and liver failure rates did not change (10.1% to 12.5%, 15.2% to 14.1%). CONCLUSION Postinjury MOF remains a resource-intensive, morbid, and lethal condition. Lung injury is an enduring challenge and should be a research

Trends in first-line antiretroviral therapy in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database.

PubMed

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥ 6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003-2006 (n = 1419), 2007-2010 (n = 2690) and 2011-2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7-23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003-2006, 15.8 [14.9-16.8] in 2007-2010, and 11.6 [9.4-14.2] in 2011-2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33-0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011-2013 versus 2003-2006), older age (1.56 [1.19-2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥ 50 years versus <30 years), female sex (1.29 [1.11-1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06-1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28-20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and prescriber preferences over the past decade. These changes have contributed to a declining rate of

Using temporal detrending to observe the spatial correlation of traffic

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This empirical study sheds light on the spatial correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. We mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the spatial correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a major sub-network of the Minneapolis—St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose the positive and negative correlation between links, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, we develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The spatial correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective of the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted spatial correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models. PMID:28472093

Interpreting the Latitudinal Structure of Differences Between Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, B. D.; Mears, C. A.; Gleckler, P. J.; Solomon, S.; Wigley, T.; Arblaster, J.; Cai, W.; Gillett, N. P.; Ivanova, D. P.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J.; Meehl, G. A.; Stott, P.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P.; Wehner, M. F.; Zou, C.

2010-12-01

We perform the most comprehensive comparison to date of simulated and observed temperature trends. Comparisons are made for different latitude bands, timescales, and temperature variables, using information from a multi-model archive and a variety of observational datasets. Our focus is on temperature changes in the lower troposphere (TLT), the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT), and at the sea surface (SST). For SST, TLT, and TMT, trend comparisons over the satellite era (1979 to 2009) always yield closest agreement in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There are pronounced discrepancies in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere: in both regions, the multi-model average warming is consistently larger than observed. At high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the observed tropospheric warming exceeds multi-model average trends. The similarity in the latitudinal structure of this discrepancy pattern across different temperature variables and observational data sets suggests that these trend differences are real, and are not due to residual inhomogeneities in the observations. The interpretation of these results is hampered by the fact that the CMIP-3 multi-model archive analyzed here convolves errors in key external forcings with errors in the model response to forcing. Under a "forcing error" interpretation, model-average temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are biased warm because many models neglect (and/or inaccurately specify) changes in stratospheric ozone and the indirect effects of aerosols. An alternative "response error" explanation for the model trend errors is that there are fundamental problems with model clouds and ocean heat uptake over the Southern Ocean. When SST changes are compared over the longer period 1950 to 2009, there is close agreement between simulated and observed trends poleward of 50°S. This result is difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that the trend discrepancies over 1979 to 2009 are primarily

Trematomus bernacchii as an indicator of POP temporal trend in the Antarctic seawaters.

PubMed

Cincinelli, Alessandra; Martellini, Tania; Pozo, Karla; Kukučka, Petr; Audy, Ondřej; Corsolini, Simonetta

2016-10-01

The occurrence of POPs in remote areas, such as Antarctica, is the result of their ability to udergo Long Range Transport (LRT) in the atmosphere, precipitation and cold condensation. In this study, both recent levels of various POPs in Trematomus bernacchii and their changes in roughly three decades were determined in order to evaluate trends of POPs in Antarctic benthic seawaters. In fact, Trematomus bernacchii is considered a good sentinel bio-indicator for monitoring not only the extent of contamination by POPs in the Antarctic aquatic ecosystem, but also changes in Antarctic ecosystem quality and trends. A slight decreasing PCB trend was detected during 30-years time span (from early 1980's to 2010) in the circumantarctic seawaters. Two higher peaks of concentrations were reported in 2001 and 2005 in the Ross Sea and they may reflect the ice melting of icebergs. Because fire risk is very high in Antarctica due to the very dry air, a large use of flame retardants in buildings and furniture of stations is highly probable; moreover, many stations were built when there were no restrictions on flame retardants use. The PBDE levels in the T. bernacchii from 2001 to 2011 ranged 0.05-0.35 pg/g and were of the same order of magnitude in 2001/2011 and in 2002/2005, with a maximum value in 2005 (0.35 pg/g). Comparable concentrations of HCB, HCHs PCDDs and PCDFs are available only for few seasons: all these compounds showed a decreasing temporal trends and their concentrations were one or more order of magnitude lower in 2000s-2010s. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in the use of intra-aortic balloon pump associated with percutaneous coronary intervention in the United States, 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Patel, Hiren; Shivaraju, Anupama; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Xie, Hui; Gao, Weihua; Shroff, Adhir R.; Vidovich, Mladen I.

2014-01-01

Background With conflicting evidence regarding the usefulness of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), reports of IABP use in the United States (US) have been inconsistent. Our objective was to examine trends in IABP usage in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the US, and to evaluate the association of IABP use with mortality. Methods Retrospective, observational study using patient data obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 1998 to 2008. Patients undergoing any PCI (1,552,602 procedures) for a primary diagnosis of symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and ST elevation MI (STEMI), were evaluated. Results The overall use of IABP significantly decreased during the study period from 0.99% in 1998 to 0.36% in 2008 (univariate and multivariate p for trend <.0001). Patients who received IABP had substantially higher rates of shock compared to those who did not receive IABP (38.09% vs. 0.70%, p<.0001), which was associated with markedly higher in-hospital mortality rates (20.31% vs. 0.72%, p<.0001). However, IABP use significantly decreased in patients with shock (36.5% to 13.4%) and AMI (2.23% to 0.84%) (univariate and multivariate p for trend for both <.0001). A temporal reduction in all-cause PCI-associated mortality from 1.1% in 1998 to 0.86% in 2008 (univariate and multivariate p for trend <.0001) was also observed. Conclusions The utilization of IABP associated with PCI significantly decreased between 1998 and 2008 in the US, even amongst patients with acute myocardial infarction and shock. PMID:25173549

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

An innovative procedure to assess multi-scale temporal trends in groundwater quality: Example of the nitrate in the Seine-Normandy basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Baran, Nicole; Bourgine, Bernard

2015-03-01

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) asks Member States to identify trends in contaminant concentrations in groundwater and to take measures to reach a good chemical status by 2015. In this study, carried out in a large hydrological basin (95,300 km2), an innovative procedure is described for the assessment of recent trends in groundwater nitrate concentrations both at sampling point and regional scales. Temporal variograms of piezometric and nitrate concentration time series are automatically calculated and fitted in order to classify groundwater according to their temporal pattern. These results are then coupled with aquifer lithology to map spatial units within which the modes of diffuse transport of contaminants towards groundwater are assumed to be the same at all points. These spatial units are suitable for evaluating regional trends. The stability over time of the time series is tested based on the cumulative sum principle, to determine the time period during which the trend should be sought. The Mann-Kendall and Regional-Kendall nonparametric tests for monotonic trends, coupled with the Sen-slope test, are applied to the periods following the point breaks thus determined at both the sampling point or regional scales. This novel procedure is robust and enables rapid processing of large databases of raw data. It would therefore be useful for managing groundwater quality in compliance with the aims of the WFD.

Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health.

PubMed

Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Araki, Atsuko; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

2018-05-14

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m² had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5⁻24.9 kg/m²). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine < 0.22 ng/mL). Lower levels of PFHxS, PFOS, PFOA, PFNA, and

Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model was composed of three

Understanding Southern Ocean SST Trends in Historical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle

2017-04-01

Historical simulations with CMIP5 global climate models do not reproduce the observed 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) cooling, and most ensemble members predict gradual warming around Antarctica. In order to understand this discrepancy and the mechanisms behind the SO cooling, we analyze output from 19 CMIP5 models. For each ensemble member we estimate the characteristic responses of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions and linear convolution theory, we reconstruct the original CMIP5 simulations of 1979-2014 SO SST trends. We recover the CMIP5 ensemble mean trend, capture the intermodel spread, and reproduce very well the behavior of individual models. We thus suggest that GHG forcing and the SAM are major drivers of the simulated 1979-2014 SO SST trends. In consistence with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole, our results imply that the summer (DJF) and fall (MAM) SAM exert a particularly important effect on the SO SST. In some CMIP5 models the SO SST response to SAM partially counteracts the warming due to GHG forcing, while in other ensemble members the SAM-induced SO SST trends complement the warming effect of GHG forcing. The compensation between GHG and SAM-induced SO SST anomalies is model-dependent and is determined by multiple factors. Firstly, CMIP5 models have different characteristic SST step response functions to SAM. Kostov et al. (2016) relate these differences to biases in the models' climatological SO temperature gradients. Secondly, many CMIP5 historical simulations underestimate the observed positive trends in the DJF and MAM seasonal SAM indices. We show that this affects the models' ability to reproduce the observed SO cooling. Last but not least, CMIP5 models differ in their SO SST step response functions to GHG forcing. Understanding the diverse behavior of CMIP5 models helps shed light on the physical processes

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result

Temporal trends of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Spanish North-Atlantic coast 1991-1999.

PubMed

Besada, V; Fumega, J; Vaamonde, A

2002-04-15

Temporal trends for heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Galician and Cantabrian areas in Spain, where samples were yearly collected from 1991 to 1999, are presented. This study was carried out by the Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo of the Instituto Español de Oceanografia (I.E.O.) as part of the Spanish contribution to the Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme (JAMP) of the OSPAR Convention. The experimental work and subsequent statistical treatment, following OSPAR procedures and guidelines, are described. In order to carry out the statistical treatment of the data, median values of the different shell length classes were used for each contaminant, year and area. The Kendall T-b correlation coefficient was used with the purpose of demonstrating the existence of a downward significant temporal trend in the pollution levels, according to the advice of ICES Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring. A decrease of copper levels was detected in Vigo, Pontevedra and Arosa, of mercury in Pontevedra and A Coruña, of lead in Vigo, Pontevedra, A Coruña and Bilbao and of zinc in Pontevedra and A Coruña. However, a cadmium positive trend was registered at Ria de Vigo. No significant trends were detected in the other cases.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Temporal observations of bright soil exposures at Gusev crater, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, M.S.; Bell, J.F.; Cloutis, E.A.; Wray, J.J.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Sullivan, R.; Johnson, J. R.; Anderson, R.B.

2011-01-01

The Mars Exploration Rover Spirit has discovered bright soil deposits in its wheel tracks that previously have been confirmed to contain ferric sulfates and/or opaline silica. Repeated Pancam multispectral observations have been acquired at four of these deposits to monitor spectral and textural changes over time during exposure to Martian surface conditions. Previous studies suggested that temporal spectral changes occur because of mineralogic changes (e.g., phase transitions accompanying dehydration). In this study, we present a multispectral and temporal analysis of eight Pancam image sequences at the Tyrone exposure, three at the Gertrude Weise exposure, two at the Kit Carson exposure, and ten at the Ulysses exposure that have been acquired as of sol 2132 (1 January 2010). We compare observed variations in Pancam data to spectral changes predicted by laboratory experiments for the dehydration of ferric sulfates. We also present a spectral analysis of repeated Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter HiRISE observations spanning 32 sols and a textural analysis of Spirit Microscopic Imager observations of Ulysses spanning 102 sols. At all bright soil exposures, we observe no statistically significant spectral changes with time that are uniquely diagnostic of dehydration and/or mineralogic phase changes. However, at Kit Carson and Ulysses, we observe significant textural changes, including slumping within the wheel trench, movement of individual grains, disappearance of fines, and dispersal of soil clods. All observed textural changes are consistent with aeolian sorting and/or minor amounts of air fall dust deposition.

Temporal trends of copper-bearing intrauterine device discontinuation: a population-based birth-cohort study of contraceptive use among rural married women in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Jie; Tan, Xiaodong; Song, Xiangjing; Zhang, Kaining; Fang, Jing; Peng, Lin; Qi, Wencai; Nie, Zonghui; Li, Ming; Deng, Rui; Yan, Chaofang

2015-03-01

Copper-bearing intrauterine device (IUD) insertion for long-term contraceptive use is high in China, but there has been evidence that first-year discontinuation rate of copper-bearing IUD has also increased rapidly in recent years especially among rural married women. To investigate long-term use of copper-bearing IUD, the authors examined the 7-year temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation in a population-based birth-cohort study among 720 rural married women in China, from 2004 to 2012. Women requesting contraception were followed-up twice per year after the insertion of IUD. The gross cumulative life table discontinuation rates were calculated for each of the main reasons for discontinuation as well as for all reasons combined. By the end of 7 years, 384 discontinuations were observed. With a stepped-up trend, the gross cumulative life table rate for discontinuation increased from 10.06 (95% confidence interval = 7.86-12.27) per 100 women by the first year to 52.69 (95% confidence interval = 48.94-56.44) per 100 women by the end of 7 years, which increased rapidly in the first 2 years after copper-bearing IUD insertion, flattened out gradually in the following 2 years, then increased again in the last 3 years. Among reported method failure, expulsion and side effects were the main reasons for discontinuation of the copper-bearing IUD but not pregnancy. Personal reasons, such as renewal by personal will had influenced copper-bearing IUD use since the second year and should not be neglected. Based on this study, the temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation was in a stepped-up trend in 7 years after insertion. Both reported method failure (expulsion and side effect) and personal reason had effect on the discontinuation of copper-bearing IUD, but pregnancy was no more the most important reason affecting the use of copper-bearing IUD. © 2014 APJPH.

Mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a temporal trend analysis in Brazil, 1979-2014

PubMed Central

Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Silva, Diego Rodrigues Mendonça e; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in Brazil over the period 1979-2014. Methods: Microdata were extracted from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database. Only deaths for which the underlying cause was coded as International Classification of Diseases version 9 (ICD-9) 515 or 516.3 (until 1995) or as ICD version 10 (ICD-10) J84.1 (from 1996 onward) were included in our analysis. Standardized mortality rates were calculated for the 2010 Brazilian population. The annual trend in mortality rates was analyzed by joinpoint regression. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) by age group, time period of death, and gender, using a person-years denominator. Results: A total of 32,092 deaths were recorded in the study period. Standardized mortality rates trended upward, rising from 0.24/100,000 population in 1979 to 1.10/100,000 population in 2014. The annual upward trend in mortality rates had two inflection points, in 1992 and 2008, separating three distinct time segments with an annual growth of 2.2%, 6.8%, and 2.4%, respectively. The comparison of RRs for the age groups, using the 50- to 54-year age group as a reference, and for the study period, using 1979-1984 as a reference, were 16.14 (14.44-16.36) and 6.71 (6.34-7.12), respectively. Men compared with women had higher standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 person-years) in all age groups. Conclusion: Brazilian IPF mortality rates are lower than those of other countries, suggesting underdiagnosis or underreporting. The temporal trend is similar to those reported in the literature and is not explained solely by population aging. PMID:29340493

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Yolanda; Pilewskie, Peter; Kindel, Bruce; Feldman, Daniel; Collins, William D.

2012-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time

Prevalence of benzocaine and lidocaine patch test sensitivity in Denmark: temporal trends and relevance.

PubMed

Thyssen, Jacob P; Engkilde, Kåre; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne D

2011-08-01

BACKGROUND. Allergens included in the European baseline series should result in positive patch test reactions in at least 1% of a patch test population. Inclusion of local anaesthetics other than benzocaine in the baseline series has previously been debated. To investigate temporal trends of benzocaine and lidocaine allergy in dermatitis patients who underwent routine patch testing in a tertiary referral patch test centre, and to clarify and discuss whether lidocaine and benzocaine should be included in routine series. Dermatitis patients who underwent routine patch testing with benzocaine as a part of the European baseline series between 1985 and 2010 (n = 19 347) and dermatitis patients who underwent routine patch testing with lidocaine between 1994 and 2001 (n = 6265) and between 2007 and 2009 (n = 1360) were included. The overall prevalences of contact allergy were 0.5% (benzocaine), 0.3% (lidocaine for the period 1994-2001), and 0.14% (lidocaine for the period 2007-2009). Current relevance was observed in 10% of those with benzocaine allergy and in 5% of those with lidocaine allergy. Benzocaine and lidocaine allergy is infrequent in Danish dermatitis patients. Lidocaine should only be used for aimed testing, and benzocaine should be removed from the baseline series used in Denmark. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands.

PubMed

Granath, Gustaf; Limpens, Juul; Posch, Maximilian; Mücher, Sander; de Vries, Wim

2014-04-01

To quantify potential nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on peatland carbon (C) uptake, we explored temporal and spatial trends in N deposition and climate impacts on the production of the key peat forming functional group (Sphagnum mosses) across European peatlands for the period 1900-2050. Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900 and 1950 N deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position. Between 1950 and 2000 N deposition depressed production between 0 and 25% relative to 1900, particularly in temperate regions. Future scenarios indicate this trend will continue and become more pronounced with climate warming. At the European scale, the consequences for Sphagnum net C-uptake remained small relative to 1900 due to the low peatland cover in high-N areas. The predicted impacts of likely changes in N deposition on Sphagnum productivity appeared to be less than those of climate. Nevertheless, current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.

2013-06-01

Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Temporal trends of infant and birth outcomes in Minamata after severe methylmercury exposure.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Kashima, Saori; Suryadhi, Made Ayu Hitapretiwi; Abudureyimu, Kawuli

2017-12-01

Severe methylmercury poisoning occurred in Minamata and neighboring communities in Japan during the 1950s and 1960s, causing what is known as Minamata disease. Although an increase in stillbirths and a reduced male proportion at birth (i.e., reduced sex ratio) have been reported, no studies have evaluated the impact of exposure on an entire set of infant and birth outcomes. We therefore evaluated the temporal trends of these outcomes in the Minamata area from 1950 to 1974. We focused on the spontaneous/artificial stillbirth rate, crude fertility rate, male proportion at birth, male proportion among stillbirths, and infant mortality. We obtained the number of stillbirths, live births, and infant deaths in Minamata City and Kumamoto Prefecture (as a reference) from 1950 to 1974. After plotting annual figures for each outcome, we divided the study period into five intervals and compared them between Minamata City and Kumamoto Prefecture using the chi-squared test. We observed a slightly increased spontaneous stillbirth rate and decreased artificial stillbirth rate in Minamata City, followed by a reduced crude fertility rate. The crude fertility rates in Minamata City during the period 1955-1965 were significantly lower compared with those in Kumamoto Prefecture (p < 0.001). An increase in the male proportion among stillbirths was observed, corresponding to a reduction in the proportion of males at birth in the late 1950s. The impact on infant mortality was equivocal. These descriptive analyses demonstrate a severe regional impact of methylmercury exposure on a series of birth outcomes in the Minamata area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery independent surveys: A case study based on Gillnets Set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleye

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2009-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period using a sampling-based monitoring programme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Temporal trends in landscape pattern metrics describing texture, patch shape and patch size were evaluated in the US Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. The landscape pattern metrics were calculated for a sample of land use/cover data obtained for four points in time from 1973-1992. The multiple sampling dates permit evaluation of trend, whereas availability of only two sampling dates allows only evaluation of change. Observed statistically significant trends in the landscape pattern metrics demonstrated that the sampling-based monitoring protocol was able to detect a trend toward a more fine-grained landscape in this ecoregion. This sampling and analysis protocol is being extended spatially to the remaining 83 ecoregions in the US and temporally to the year 2000 to provide a national and regional synthesis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape pattern covering the period 1973-2000.

The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

2017-06-01

In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA great plains: Part II. Temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Detection of long-term changes in climate variables over large spatial scales is a very important prerequisite to the development of effective mitigation and adaptation measures for the future potential climate change and for developing strategies for future hydrologic balance analyses under changing climate. Moreover, there is a need for effective approaches of providing information about these changes to decision makers, water managers and stakeholders to aid in efficient implementation of the developed strategies. This study involves computation, mapping and analyses of long-term (1968-2013) county-specific trends in annual, growing-season (1st May-30th September) and monthly air temperatures [(maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and average (Tavg)], daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) over the USA Great Plains region using datasets from over 800 weather station sites. Positive trends in annual Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were observed in 71%, 89%, 85%, 31%, 61%, 38% and 66% of the counties in the region, respectively, whereas these proportions were 48%, 89%, 62%, 20%, 57%, 28%, and 63%, respectively, for the growing-season averages of the same variables. On a regional average basis, the positive trends in growing-season Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were 0.18 °C decade-1, 0.19 °C decade-1, 0.17 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 1.12 mm yr-1, 0.4 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively, and the negative trends were 0.21 °C decade-1, 0.06 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 0.22 °C decade-1, 1.16 mm yr-1, 0.76 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively. The temporal trends were highly variable in space and were appropriately represented using monthly, annual and growing-season maps developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The long-term and spatial and temporal information and data for a large region provided in this study can be

Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

Recent changes in economic development tendencies and environmental protection policies in the East Asian countries raise hopes for improvement of regional air quality in this vast region populated by more than 3 billion people. To recognize anticipated changes in atmospheric pollutants levels, deposition rates and impact on the environment, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) is regularly operating region-wide since 2000 in 13 countries. The network provides continuous monitoring data on the air quality and precipitation (including gas-phase and particulate chemistry) at 55 monitoring sites, including 20 remote and 14 rural sites. Observation of soil and inland water environments are performed at more than 30 monitoring sites [1]. In this study we focus on 1) the data quality assessment and preparation and 2) analysis of temporal trends of compositions observed at selected 26 non-urban EANET stations. Speciation includes gas-phase (SO2, HNO3, HCl, NH3) and particulate matter (SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, NH4+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) abundances analysed in samples collected using filterpack technique with sampling duration/frequency of one-two weeks. Data quality assessment (distribution test and manual inspection) allowed us to remove/repair random and operator errors. Wrong sample timing was found for 0.37% (severe) and 34% (mild inconsistency) of the total of 7630 samples regarded. Erroneous data flagging (e.g. missing or below the detection limit) was repaired for 9.3%, respectively. Some 1.8% of severely affected data were corrected (where possible) or removed. Thus refined 15-year dataset is made available for the scientific community. For convenience, we also provide data in netCDF format (per station or in an assembly). Based on this refined dataset, we performed trend analysis using several statistical approaches including quantile regression which provides robust results against outliers and better understanding of trend

Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health

PubMed Central

Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

2018-01-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5–24.9 kg/m2). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine < 0.22 ng/mL). Lower levels of PFHxS, PFOS, PFOA, PFNA, and

Geo-spatial analysis of the temporal trends of kharif crop phenology metrics over India and its relationships with rainfall parameters.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M V R; Dadhwal, V K

2014-07-01

The Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies bimonthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data of 8 × 8 km spatial resolution for the period of 1982-2006 were analyzed to detect the trends of crop phenology metrics (start of the growing season (SGS), seasonal NDVI amplitude (AMP), seasonally integrated NDVI (SiNDVI)) during kharif season (June to October) and their relationships with the amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days over Indian subcontinent. Direction and magnitude of trends were analyzed at pixel level using the Mann-Kendall test and further assessed at meteorological subdivision level using field significance test (α = 0.1). Significant pre-occurrence of the SGS was observed over northern (Punjab, Haryana) and central (Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra) parts, whereas delay was found over southern (Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh) and eastern (Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal) parts of India. North, west, and central India showed significant increasing trends of SiNDVI, corroborating the kharif food grain production performance during the time frame. Significant temporal correlation (α = 0.1) between the rainfall/number of rainy days and crop phenology metrics was observed over the rainfed region of India. About 35-40 % of the study area showed significant correlation between the SGS and the rainfall/number of rainy days during June to August. June month rainfall/number of rainy days was found to be the most sensitive to the SGS. The amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days during monsoon were found to have significant influence over the SiNDVI in 24-30 % of the study area. The crop phenology metrics had significant correlation with the number of rainy days over the larger areas than that of the rainfall amount.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000.

PubMed

Kierkegaard, A; Bignert, A; Sellström, U; Olsson, M; Asplund, L; Jansson, B; De Wit, C A

2004-07-01

Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Sigma5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location.

Temporal variation and trends of inorganic nutrients in the coastal upwelling of the NW Spain (Atlantic Galician rías)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doval, M. D.; López, A.; Madriñán, M.

2016-02-01

The temporal variability of inorganic nutrients (nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, phosphate and silicate) in five coastal upwelling Galician rías (Ría de Vigo, Ría de Pontevedra, Ría de Arousa, Ría de Muros and Ría de Ares-Betanzos) was assessed by considering biweekly values at 10 oceanographic stations for the decade 2002-2011. The long trends (1993-2011) of biweekly and annual average series for one station (mouth of Ría de Arousa, A0) were compared with decadal trends. A marked seasonal variability in all surface inorganic nutrients was observed. The average of the ten annual cycles (2002-2011) of each variable was calculated in order to obtain the average seasonal cycles. Maximum surface values occurred from the end of October to the end of February (8-24 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 5-22 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.5-1.8 μmol L- 1 phosphate). Minimum surface values (0.9-3.0 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 0.6-2.5 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.15-0.6 μmol L- 1 phosphate) detected from the beginning of May to the end of September. The highest nutrient concentrations (> 35%) recorded in the inner stations (V3, P3, A3, M2 and L3), as compared to the outer stations (V5, P4, A0, M5 and L1), indicated a more estuarine behaviour of these areas. Trends of the deseasonalised nutrient data were highly dependent on factors as length of the series, the initial year and the time integration period considered. The results found for these trends should be taken with caution due to the change in the sign of the slopes and the moderate accuracy of the models. Considering the variables whose trends did not change sign, ammonium and silicate showed a slightly positive trend for the biweekly-averaged series in A0 station during the periods 2002-2011 and 1993-2011.

Temporal observations of bright soil exposures at Gusev crater, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, M.S.; Bell, J.F.; Cloutis, E.A.; Wray, J.J.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Sullivan, R.; Johnson, J. R.; Anderson, R.B.

2011-01-01

The Mars Exploration Rover Spirit has discovered bright soil deposits in its wheel tracks that previously have been confirmed to contain ferric sulfates and/or opaline silica. Repeated Pancam multispectral observations have been acquired at four of these deposits to monitor spectral and textural changes over time during exposure to Martian surface conditions. Previous studies suggested that temporal spectral changes occur because of mineralogic changes (e.g., phase transitions accompanying dehydration). In this study, we present a multispectral and temporal analysis of eight Pancam image sequences at the Tyrone exposure, three at the Gertrude Weise exposure, two at the Kit Carson exposure, and ten at the Ulysses exposure that have been acquired as of sol 2132 (1 January 2010). We compare observed variations in Pancam data to spectral changes predicted by laboratory experiments for the dehydration of ferric sulfates. We also present a spectral analysis of repeated Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter HiRISE observations spanning 32 sols and a textural analysis of Spirit Microscopic Imager observations of Ulysses spanning 102 sols. At all bright soil exposures, we observe no statistically significant spectral changes with time that are uniquely diagnostic of dehydration and/or mineralogic phase changes. However, at Kit Carson and Ulysses, we observe significant textural changes, including slumping within the wheel trench, movement of individual grains, disappearance of fines, and dispersal of soil clods. All observed textural changes are consistent with aeolian sorting and/or minor amounts of air fall dust deposition. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Temporal and spatial trends of organochlorine pesticides in Great Lakes precipitation.

PubMed

Sun, Ping; Backus, Sean; Blanchard, Pierrette; Hites, Ronald A

2006-04-01

Organochlorine pesticide concentrations in precipitation samples collected from 1997 to 2003 at seven Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network sites around the Great Lakes are reported. The 28-day volume weighted mean concentrations of several pesticides, including gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), endosulfan, hexachlorobenzene, chlordane, and DDE, showed significant seasonal trends. For current-use pesticides (endosulfan and gamma-HCH), their concentrations peaked in late spring to summer just after their agricultural application. For the banned pesticides, higher concentrations were observed in the winter due to their enhanced partitioning to particles and scavenging by snow. Long-term decreasing trends were observed for several pesticides such as gamma-HCH and DDE. On the other hand, beta-HCH showed significant increasing concentrations as a function of time at Brule River, Eagle Harbor, and Sleeping Bear Dunes. Generally, Chicago had the highest concentration of chlordanes, dieldrin, and DDT, indicating that urban areas could be a source for these compounds to precipitation. For gamma-HCH and endosulfans, Point Petre had the highest concentrations due to the application of these pesticides in the surrounding areas.

Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

1989-01-01

The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

Volumetric Trends Associated with MR-guided Stereotactic Laser Amygdalohippocampectomy in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Patel, Nitesh V; Sundararajan, Sri; Keller, Irwin; Danish, Shabbar

2018-01-01

Objective: Magnetic resonance (MR)-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy is a minimally invasive procedure for the treatment of refractory epilepsy in patients with mesial temporal sclerosis. Limited data exist on post-ablation volumetric trends associated with the procedure. Methods: 10 patients with mesial temporal sclerosis underwent MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy. Three independent raters computed ablation volumes at the following time points: pre-ablation (PreA), immediate post-ablation (IPA), 24 hours post-ablation (24PA), first follow-up post-ablation (FPA), and greater than three months follow-up post-ablation (>3MPA), using OsiriX DICOM Viewer (Pixmeo, Bernex, Switzerland). Statistical trends in post-ablation volumes were determined for the time points. Results: MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy produces a rapid rise and distinct peak in post-ablation volume immediately following the procedure. IPA volumes are significantly higher than all other time points. Comparing individual time points within each raters dataset (intra-rater), a significant difference was seen between the IPA time point and all others. There was no statistical difference between the 24PA, FPA, and >3MPA time points. A correlation analysis demonstrated the strongest correlations at the 24PA (r=0.97), FPA (r=0.95), and 3MPA time points (r=0.99), with a weaker correlation at IPA (r=0.92). Conclusion: MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy produces a maximal increase in post-ablation volume immediately following the procedure, which decreases and stabilizes at 24 hours post-procedure and beyond three months follow-up. Based on the correlation analysis, the lower inter-rater reliability at the IPA time point suggests it may be less accurate to assess volume at this time point. We recommend post-ablation volume assessments be made at least 24 hours post-selective ablation of the amygdalohippocampal complex (SLAH).

Trends in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Asia: Results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database

PubMed Central

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Methods Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Results Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003–2006 (n = 1419), 2007–2010 (n = 2690) and 2011–2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7–23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003–2006, 15.8 [14.9–16.8] in 2007–2010, and 11.6 [9.4–14.2] in 2011–2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33–0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011–2013 versus 2003–2006), older age (1.56 [1.19–2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥50 years versus <30years), female sex (1.29 [1.11–1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06–1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28–20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). Conclusions The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and

Temporal trends of β-haemolytic streptococcal osteoarticular infections in western Norway.

PubMed

Oppegaard, Oddvar; Skrede, Steinar; Mylvaganam, Haima; Kittang, Bård Reiakvam

2016-10-04

Beta-haemolytic streptococci are important contributors to the global burden of osteoarticular infections (OAI). Knowledge on the disease traits specific for streptococcal OAI, however, remains scarce. We wished to explore temporal trends of OAI caused by Group A Streptococci (GAS), Group B Streptococci (GBS) and Group C and G Streptococci (GCGS), and furthermore, to describe the associated host and pathogen characteristics. All cases of microbiologically verified β-haemolytic streptococcal OAI in Health Region Bergen, Norway, in the period 1999-2013 were retrospectively identified. Clinical data were extracted from medical records. Microbial isolates were submitted to antibiotic susceptibility testing and molecular typing. A total of 24 GAS, 45 GBS and 42 GCGS acute OAI were identified. The cumulative incidence of GCGS OAI, but not GAS or GBS OAI, increased significantly from the first to the last 5-year period (IRR 5.7, p = 0.0003), with the annual incidence peaking at 1.9/100 000 in 2013. GAS OAI generally produced the most acute and severe clinical presentation, whereas GBS and GCGS predominantly affected the elderly, and were significantly associated with the presence of host risk factors of systemic and focal origin, respectively. We found a significantly increasing incidence of GCGS OAI, likely related to the presence of host susceptibility factors, including prosthetic material and pre-existing joint disease. With an increasing application of therapeutic and diagnostic bone and joint procedures, the rising trend of OAI caused by GCGS is likely to continue. Sustained epidemiological attentiveness to GCGS seems warranted.

Reconciling temporal trends in water-use efficiency from tree rings to continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, B.; Frank, D. C.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.; Fisher, J. B.

2016-12-01

The direct effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations on leaf to ecosystem scale processes continue to remain elusive and difficult to quantify. Measurements of the so called "CO2 fertilization effect" based on tree rings, flux towers, and satellites, are confounded by temporal and spatial scaling issues, statistical sampling and detrending artefacts, and interactions with climatic and land-use drivers. In contrast, water-use efficiency (WUE), which integrates carbon uptake from photosynthesis (A) with water loss via transpiration (T), can be measured directly from carbon isotopes and indirectly from in situ fluxes or remote sensing models of A and T, and provide a link between observations with physiological theory. Here, we contrast recent studies of reconstructions of WUE from tree rings, with flux tower and remote sensing based observations. Despite agreement that WUE has increased over the past several decades, differences in temporal coverage, the definition of WUE, i.e., intrinsic versus inherent, and in methodology continue to cause divergence in the magnitude of the response, and put measurements at odds with theory. A deeper appreciation of the drivers behind these differences will help direct new field measurement campaigns, experimental manipulations, and space-borne observations such as the new NASA ECOSTRESS mission.

Identification of AR(I)MA processes for modelling temporal correlations of GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Mayer, M.; Heck, B.

2009-04-01

In many geodetic applications observations of the Global Positioning System (GPS) are routinely processed by means of the least-squares method. However, this algorithm delivers reliable estimates of unknown parameters und realistic accuracy measures only if both the functional and stochastic models are appropriately defined within GPS data processing. One deficiency of the stochastic model used in many GPS software products consists in neglecting temporal correlations of GPS observations. In practice the knowledge of the temporal stochastic behaviour of GPS observations can be improved by analysing time series of residuals resulting from the least-squares evaluation. This paper presents an approach based on the theory of autoregressive (integrated) moving average (AR(I)MA) processes to model temporal correlations of GPS observations using time series of observation residuals. A practicable integration of AR(I)MA models in GPS data processing requires the determination of the order parameters of AR(I)MA processes at first. In case of GPS, the identification of AR(I)MA processes could be affected by various factors impacting GPS positioning results, e.g. baseline length, multipath effects, observation weighting, or weather variations. The influences of these factors on AR(I)MA identification are empirically analysed based on a large amount of representative residual time series resulting from differential GPS post-processing using 1-Hz observation data collected within the permanent SAPOS® (Satellite Positioning Service of the German State Survey) network. Both short and long time series are modelled by means of AR(I)MA processes. The final order parameters are determined based on the whole residual database; the corresponding empirical distribution functions illustrate that multipath and weather variations seem to affect the identification of AR(I)MA processes much more significantly than baseline length and observation weighting. Additionally, the modelling

Temporal characteristics of atmospheric ammonia and nitrogen dioxide over China based on emission data, satellite observations and atmospheric transport modeling since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lei; Zhang, Xiuying; Xu, Wen; Liu, Xuejun; Li, Yi; Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Yuehan; Zhang, Wuting

2017-08-01

China is experiencing intense air pollution caused in large part by anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr). Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are the most important precursors for Nr compounds (including N2O5, HNO3, HONO and particulate NO3- and NH4+) in the atmosphere. Understanding the changes in NH3 and NO2 has important implications for the regulation of anthropogenic Nr emissions and is a requirement for assessing the consequence of environmental impacts. We conducted the temporal trend analysis of atmospheric NH3 and NO2 on a national scale since 1980 based on emission data (during 1980-2010), satellite observation (for NH3 since 2008 and for NO2 since 2005) and atmospheric chemistry transport modeling (during 2008-2015).Based on the emission data, during 1980-2010, significant continuous increasing trends in both NH3 and NOx were observed in REAS (Regional Emission inventory in Asia, for NH3 0.17 and for NOx 0.16 kg N ha-1 yr-2) and EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, for NH3 0.24 and for NOx 0.17 kg N ha-1 yr-2) over China. Based on the satellite data and atmospheric chemistry transport model (CTM) MOZART-4 (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4), the NO2 columns over China increased significantly from 2005 to 2011 and then decreased significantly from 2011 to 2015; the satellite-retrieved NH3 columns from 2008 to 2014 increased at a rate of 2.37 % yr-1. The decrease in NO2 columns since 2011 may result from more stringent strategies taken to control NOx emissions during the 12th Five Year Plan, while no control policy has focused on NH3 emissions. Our findings provided an overall insight into the temporal trends of both NO2 and NH3 since 1980 based on emission data, satellite observations and atmospheric transport modeling. These findings can provide a scientific background for policy makers that are attempting to control atmospheric pollution in China. Moreover, the multiple datasets

PBDEs and PCBs in the liver of the St Lawrence Estuary beluga (Delphinapterus leucas): a comparison of levels and temporal trends with the blubber.

PubMed

Raach, Meriem; Lebeuf, Michel; Pelletier, Emilien

2011-03-01

Due to their lipophilic properties, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are commonly assessed using the blubber of marine mammals. However, these chemicals are also accumulating in other tissues including the liver. Some pollutants, namely perfluorinated alkyl acids, are found predominately in the liver and blood of marine mammals, and thus monitored in those tissues. This raises the question whether any tissue would represent an identical trend of POPs in the SLE beluga. The current study reports the first temporal trends of PBDEs and PCBs in the liver of 65 SLE belugas. Neither ∑₇PBDEs nor major individual PBDE-homolog group concentrations showed significant trends between 1993 and 2007. Also, ∑₃₂PCBs did not change over years, although, tetra-, penta- and hepta-PCB decreased by 7.1, 6.8 and 8.5%, respectively, in males, whereas tetra-, penta- and octa-PCBs declined by 11, 12 and 12.9%, respectively, in females. In order to compare the distribution of POPs between liver and blubber, a lipid normalised concentration ratio R (blubber/liver) for PBDEs and PCBs was calculated for each individual beluga. For all PBDE and several PCB homolog groups, mean R values were not statistically different from unity indicating that the partitioning of these POPs is governed by the tissue lipid-content. Temporal trends of R ratios of PBDEs and PCBs were also examined. There were generally no significant temporal trends except for PBDEs in males where R increased in average by 12.7 ± 2.9% yearly. The stratification of the blubber into a metabolically active (inner) and less active layers (outer blubber) may result in a slower response time of the blubber (full depth) than the liver to the recent change of contamination in the environment and explain the time trend differences between both tissues. This study suggests that the liver is more representative of recent exposure to lipophilic contaminants.

Spatial and temporal trends in brominated flame retardants in seabirds from the Pacific coast of Canada.

PubMed

Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Guigueno, Mélanie F; Wilson, Laurie K; Lee, Sandi; Idrissi, Abde

2014-12-01

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) are bioaccumulative flame retardants. PBDEs increased in many ecosystems during the late 20th century, but recently have declined in some environments. To examine trends in the northern Pacific, we analysed PBDEs, HBCDD and carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) to account for dietary effects in archived eggs of three seabird species from British Columbia, Canada, 1990-2011 (rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; ancient murrelets, Synthliboramphus antiquus, 2009 only). PBDEs increased until approximately 2000 and then decreased, while HBCDD increased exponentially throughout the examined period. No significant changes in dietary tracers were observed. HBCDD and ΣPBDE levels varied among species; ΣPBDE also varied among sites. Temporal changes in contaminant concentrations are unlikely to have been caused by dietary changes, and likely reflect the build-up followed by decreases associated with voluntary phase-outs and regulations implemented in North America to control PBDEs. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in genital warts among individuals covered by the public prescription drug insurance plan in the province of Quebec, Canada, from 1998 to 2007.

PubMed

Steben, Marc; Ouhoummane, Najwa; Rodier, Caroline; Brassard, Paul

2013-04-01

We assessed temporal trend in the incidence and prevalence of genital warts (GWs) in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1998 and 2007 as a baseline for future assessment of the impact of Quebec human papillomavirus vaccination program. Data on GWs were obtained from the linkage of the physician service claims and the public insurance drug plan databases. Genital warts were identified through a prescription of podofilox, a medical procedure code specific to GWs or a diagnosis code for viral warts followed by a prescription of imiquimod or fluorouracil within 2 weeks. An episode was considered incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval period free of GWs care. During the study period, a total of 27,138 episodes of GWs occurred among 24,267 individuals. The age-standardized incidence rate increased over time in men and women. The highest incidence was observed in women aged 20 to 24 years (391.9/100,000) and in men aged 25 to 29 years (383.3/100,000). Similar trends in prevalence were observed. The incidence and prevalence of GWs has increased among the population covered by the public insurance drug plan in Quebec.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-01-01

A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3

Evaluating lake stratification and temporal trends by using near-continuous water-quality data from automated profiling systems for water years 2005-09, Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veley, Ronald J.; Moran, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Southern Nevada Water Authority, collected near-continuous depth-dependent water-quality data at Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, as part of a multi-agency monitoring network maintained to provide resource managers with basic data and to gain a better understanding of the hydrodynamics of the lake. Water-quality data-collection stations on Lake Mead were located in shallow water (less than 20 meters) at Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm, and in deep water (greater than 20 meters) near Sentinel Island and at Virgin and Temple Basins. At each station, near-continual depth-dependent water-quality data were collected from October 2004 through September 2009. The data were collected by using automatic profiling systems equipped with multiparameter water-quality sondes. The sondes had sensors for temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and depth. Data were collected every 6 hours at 2-meter depth intervals (for shallow-water stations) or 5-meter depth intervals (for deep-water stations) beginning at 1 meter below water surface. Data were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions related to stratification of the lake and temporal trends in water-quality parameters. Three water-quality parameters were the main focus of these analyses: temperature, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen. Statistical temporal-trend analyses were performed for a single depth at shallow-water stations [Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm] and for thermally-stratified lake layers at deep-water stations (Sentinel Island and Virgin Basin). The limited period of data collection at the Temple Basin station prevented the application of statistical trend analysis. During the summer months, thermal stratification was not observed at shallow-water stations, nor were major maxima or minima observed for specific-conductance or dissolved-oxygen profiles. A clearly-defined thermocline

Temporal trends in and influence of wind on PAH concentrations measured near the Great Lakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cortes, D.R.; Basu, I.; Sweet, C.W.

2000-02-01

This paper reports on temporal trends in gas- and particle-phase PAH concentrations measured at three sites in the Great Lakes' Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network: Eagle Harbor, near Lake Superior, Sleeping Bear Dunes, near Lake Michigan, and Sturgeon Point, near Lake Erie. While gas-phase concentrations have been decreasing since 1991 at all sites, particle-phase concentrations have been decreasing only at Sleeping Bear Dunes. To determine whether these results represent trends in background levels or regional emissions, the average concentrations are compared to those found in urban and rural studies. In addition, the influence of local wind direction on PAH concentrations ismore » investigated, with the assumption that dependence on wind direction implies regional sources. Using these two methods, it is found that PAH concentrations at Eagle Harbor and Sleeping Bear Dunes represent regional background levels but that PAH from the Buffalo Region intrude on the background levels measured at the Sturgeon Point site. At this site, wind from over Lake Erie reduces local PAH concentrations.« less

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2011-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Spatial and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants and mercury in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from Alaska.

PubMed

Hoguet, Jennifer; Keller, Jennifer M; Reiner, Jessica L; Kucklick, John R; Bryan, Colleen E; Moors, Amanda J; Pugh, Rebecca S; Becker, Paul R

2013-04-01

Remote locations, such as the Arctic, are often sinks for persistent contaminants which can ultimately bioaccumulate in local wildlife. Assessing temporal contaminant trends in the Arctic is important in understanding whether restrictions on legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have led to concentration declines. Beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) tissue samples were collected from two subpopulations (Cook Inlet, Alaska and the eastern Chukchi Sea) between 1989 and 2006. Several POPs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane and related compounds (DDTs), chlordanes, hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), chlorobenzenes, mirex, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and semi-quantitatively hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs)) were measured in 70 blubber samples, and total mercury (Hg) was measured in 67 liver samples from a similar set of individuals. Legacy POPs (PCBs, chlordanes, DDTs, and HCHs) were the predominant organic compound classes in both subpopulations, with median concentrations of 2360ng/g lipid for Σ80PCBs and 1890 ng/g lipid for Σ6DDTs. Backward stepwise multiple regressions showed that at least one of the four independent variables (subpopulation, sampling year, sex, and animal length) influenced the POP and Hg concentrations. ΣPCBs, ΣDDTs, Σchlordanes, Σchlorobenzenes, mirex, and Hg were significantly higher in belugas from the eastern Chukchi Sea than from the Cook Inlet (p≤0.0001). In contrast, Σ8PBDE and α-HBCD concentrations were significantly lower in belugas from the eastern Chukchi Sea than from the Cook Inlet (p<0.0001). Significant temporal increases in concentrations of Σ8PBDE and α-HBCD were observed for both subpopulations (p≤0.0003), and temporal declines were seen for ΣHCHs and Σchlorobenzenes in eastern Chukchi Sea belugas only (p≤0.0107). All other POP and Hg concentrations were stable, indicating either a lagging response of the Arctic to source reductions or the maintenance of concentrations

Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans; Schaub, M.; Volet, B.; Hafliger, G.; Zbinden, N.

2010-01-01

Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered

Space-based constraints on spatial and temporal patterns of NO(x) emissions in California, 2005-2008.

PubMed

Russell, Ashley R; Valin, Lukas C; Bucsela, Eric J; Wenig, Mark O; Cohen, Ronald C

2010-05-01

We describe ground and space-based measurements of spatial and temporal variation of NO(2) in four California metropolitan regions. The measurements of weekly cycles and trends over the years 2005-2008 observed both from the surface and from space are nearly identical to each other. Observed decreases in Los Angeles and the surrounding cities are 46% on weekends and 9%/year from 2005-2008. Similar decreases are observed in the San Francisco Bay area and in Sacramento. In the San Joaquin Valley cities of Fresno and Bakersfield weekend decreases are much smaller, only 27%, and the decreasing trend is only 4%/year. We describe evidence that the satellite observations provide a uniquely complete view of changes in spatial patterns over time. For example, we observe variations in the spatial pattern of weekday-weekend concentrations in the Los Angeles basin with much steeper weekend decreases at the eastern edge of the basin. We also observe that the spatial extent of high NO(2) in the San Joaquin Valley has not receded as much as it has for other regions in the state. Analysis of these measurements is used to describe observational constraints on temporal trends in emission sources in the different regions.

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

Temporal Trends and Hydrological Controls of Fisheries Production in the Madeira River (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, D. A.; Lima, M. A.; Doria, C.

2016-12-01

Amazonian river systems are characterized by a strongly seasonal flood pulse and important hydrologic effects have been observed in the dynamics of fish stocks and fishing yields. Changes in the Amazon's freshwater ecosystems from hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects and impacts on fish and fisheries are expected to be potentially irreversible. In this work we investigate shared trends and causal factors driving fish catch in the Madeira River (a major tributary of the Amazon) before dam construction to derive relationships between catch and natural hydrologic dynamics. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis to investigate dynamics in fish catch across ten commercially important fish species in the Madeira River using daily fish landings data including species and total weight and daily hydrological data obtained from the Brazilian Geological Service. Total annual catch averaged over the 18-yr period (1990-2007) was 849 tons yr-1. Species with the highest catch included curimatã, dourada/filhote and pacu, highlighting the importance of medium and long-distance migratory species for fisheries production. We found a four-trend dynamic factor model (DFM) to best fit the observed data, assessed using the Akaike Information Criteria. Model goodness of fit was fair (R2=0.51) but highly variable across species (0.16 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95). Fitted trends exhibited strong and regular year-to-year variation representative of the seasonal hydrologic pulsing observed on the Madeira River. Next, we considered 11 candidate explanatory time series and found the best DFM used four explanatory variables and only one common trend. While the model fit with explanatory variables was lower (R2=0.31) it removed much reliance on unknown common trends. The most important explanatory variable in this model was maximum water level followed by days flooded, river flow of the previous year and increment. We found unique responses to hydrological

Direct estimation and correction of bias from temporally variable non-stationary noise in a channelized Hotelling model observer.

PubMed

Fetterly, Kenneth A; Favazza, Christopher P

2016-08-07

Channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) methods were developed to assess performance of an x-ray angiography system. The analytical methods included correction for known bias error due to finite sampling. Detectability indices ([Formula: see text]) corresponding to disk-shaped objects with diameters in the range 0.5-4 mm were calculated. Application of the CHO for variable detector target dose (DTD) in the range 6-240 nGy frame(-1) resulted in [Formula: see text] estimates which were as much as 2.9×  greater than expected of a quantum limited system. Over-estimation of [Formula: see text] was presumed to be a result of bias error due to temporally variable non-stationary noise. Statistical theory which allows for independent contributions of 'signal' from a test object (o) and temporally variable non-stationary noise (ns) was developed. The theory demonstrates that the biased [Formula: see text] is the sum of the detectability indices associated with the test object [Formula: see text] and non-stationary noise ([Formula: see text]). Given the nature of the imaging system and the experimental methods, [Formula: see text] cannot be directly determined independent of [Formula: see text]. However, methods to estimate [Formula: see text] independent of [Formula: see text] were developed. In accordance with the theory, [Formula: see text] was subtracted from experimental estimates of [Formula: see text], providing an unbiased estimate of [Formula: see text]. Estimates of [Formula: see text] exhibited trends consistent with expectations of an angiography system that is quantum limited for high DTD and compromised by detector electronic readout noise for low DTD conditions. Results suggest that these methods provide [Formula: see text] estimates which are accurate and precise for [Formula: see text]. Further, results demonstrated that the source of bias was detector electronic readout noise. In summary, this work presents theory and methods to test for the

Temporal trends in critical events complicating HIV infection: 1999-2010 multicentre cohort study in France.

PubMed

Barbier, François; Roux, Antoine; Canet, Emmanuel; Martel-Samb, Patricia; Aegerter, Philippe; Wolff, Michel; Guidet, Bertrand; Azoulay, Elie

2014-12-01

Multicentre data are limited to appraise the management and prognosis of critically ill human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We sought to describe temporal trends in demographic and clinical characteristics, indications for intensive care and outcome in this patient population. We conducted a cohort study of unselected HIV-infected patients admitted between 1999 and 2010 to 34 French ICUs contributing to the CUB-Réa prospective database. We included 6,373 consecutive patients. Over the 12-year period, increases occurred in median age (39 years in 1999-2001; 47 years in 2008-2010, p < 0.0001) and prevalence of comorbidities (notably malignancies, from 6.7 to 16.4%, p < 0.0001). Admissions for respiratory failure (39.8% overall), shock (8.1%) and coma (22.7%) decreased (p < 0.0001), while those for sepsis (19.3%) remained stable. The main final diagnoses were bacterial sepsis (24.6%) and non-bacterial acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining diseases (steady decline from 26.0 to 17.5%, p < 0.0001). Patients increasingly received mechanical ventilation (from 42.9 to 54.0%) and renal replacement therapy (from 9.6 to 16.8%) (p < 0.0001), whereas vasopressor use remained stable (27.4%). ICU readmissions increased after 2004 (p < 0.0001). ICU and hospital mortality (17.6 and 26.9%, respectively) dropped markedly in the most severely ill patients requiring multiple life-sustaining therapies. Malignancies and chronic liver disease were heavily associated with hospital mortality by multivariate analysis, while the most common AIDS-defining complications (Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis and tuberculosis) had no independent impact. Progressive ageing, increasing prevalence of comorbidities (mainly malignancies), a steady decline in AIDS-related illnesses and improved benefits from life-sustaining therapies were the main temporal trends in HIV-infected patients requiring ICU admission.

Temporal trends in emergency department visits for bronchiolitis in the United States, 2006 to 2010.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Kohei; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Brown, David F M; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Camargo, Carlos A

2014-01-01

To examine temporal trends in emergency departments (EDs) visits for bronchiolitis among US children between 2006 and 2010. Serial, cross-sectional analysis of the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, a nationally representative sample of ED patients. We used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 466.1 to identify children <2 years of age with bronchiolitis. Primary outcome measures were rate of bronchiolitis ED visits, hospital admission rate and ED charges. Between 2006 and 2010, weighted national discharge data included 1,435,110 ED visits with bronchiolitis. There was a modest increase in the rate of bronchiolitis ED visits, from 35.6 to 36.3 per 1000 person-years (2% increase; Ptrend = 0.008), due to increases in the ED visit rate among children from 12 months to 23 months (24% increase;Ptrend < 0.001). By contrast, there was a significant decline in the ED visit rate among infants (4% decrease; Ptrend < 0.001). Although unadjusted admission rate did not change between 2006 and 2010 (26% in both years), admission rate declined significantly after adjusting for potential patient- and ED-level confounders (adjusted odds ratio for comparison of 2010 with 2006, 0.84; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-0.93; P < 0.001). Nationwide ED charges for bronchiolitis increased from $337 million to $389 million (16% increase; Ptrend < 0.001), adjusted for inflation. This increase was driven by a rise in geometric mean of ED charges per case from $887 to $1059 (19% increase; Ptrend < 0.001). Between 2006 and 2010, we found a divergent temporal trend in the rate of bronchiolitis ED visits by age group. Despite a significant increase in associated ED charges, ED-associated hospital admission rates for bronchiolitis significantly decreased over this same period.

Persistent organic pollutants and mercury in marine biota of the Canadian Arctic: an overview of spatial and temporal trends.

PubMed

Braune, B M; Outridge, P M; Fisk, A T; Muir, D C G; Helm, P A; Hobbs, K; Hoekstra, P F; Kuzyk, Z A; Kwan, M; Letcher, R J; Lockhart, W L; Norstrom, R J; Stern, G A; Stirling, I

2005-12-01

This review summarizes and synthesizes the significant amount of data which was generated on mercury (Hg) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Canadian Arctic marine biota since the first Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report (CACAR) was published in 1997. This recent body of work has led to a better understanding of the current levels and spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in biota, including the marine food species that northern peoples traditionally consume. Compared to other circumpolar countries, concentrations of many organochlorines (OCs) in Canadian Arctic marine biota are generally lower than in the European Arctic and eastern Greenland but are higher than in Alaska, whereas Hg concentrations are substantially higher in Canada than elsewhere. Spatial coverage of OCs in ringed seals, beluga and seabirds remains a strength of the Arctic contaminant data set for Canada. Concentrations of OCs in marine mammals and seabirds remain fairly consistent across the Canadian Arctic although subtle differences from west to east and south to north are found in the proportions of various chemicals. The most significant development since 1997 is improvement in the temporal trend data sets, thanks to the use of archived tissue samples from the 1970s and 1980s, long-term studies using archeological material, as well as the continuation of sampling. These data cover a range of species and chemicals and also include retrospective studies on new chemicals such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers. There is solid evidence in a few species (beluga, polar bear, blue mussels) that Hg at some locations has significantly increased from pre-industrial times to the present; however, the temporal trends of Hg over the past 20-30 years are inconsistent. Some animal populations exhibited significant increases in Hg whereas others did not. Therefore, it is currently not possible to determine if anthropogenic Hg is generally increasing in Canadian Arctic biota. It is

Observed Trends in West Coast Atmospheric River Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, K. R.; Swain, D. L.; Barnes, E. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the changing characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in a warming climate is critical in light of their importance in generating precipitation and creating the potential for flood and geophysical hazards. Numerous changes to the characteristics of ARs under the influence of a changing climate have been documented or hypothesized; one simple hypothesis is that AR precipitation will occur at increasingly warm temperatures, potentially altering the critical rain/snow balance in snowpack-dependent watersheds and causing precipitation at higher elevations to fall as rain rather than snow. Not only would warmer, primarily rain-producing ARs greatly affect snow accumulation, but they might also increase the intensity of runoff, the potential for flooding, and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events. Since the West Coast of North America relies heavily on ARs as a source of precipitation and snowpack accumulation, these regions may be profoundly affected by changes in AR temperatures and associated impacts. Using a catalog of ARs encompassing 1979-2014 and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess whether detectable trends exist in cool season AR temperatures over the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We define AR temperature by the mean temperature of the air mass between 1000 hPa and 750 hPa, and compare AR temperature trends to background temperature trends over the same period. We find overall AR warming over this period and particularly robust warming in March ARs coincident with an apparent poleward shift in March AR frequency. Further analysis suggests that warmer ARs have higher rates of warming than cooler ARs. AR temperature trends generally scale with background temperature trends, although some regions exhibit a near one-to-one relationship while others are largely uncorrelated. The observed warming of ARs making landfall on the West Coast may have potentially significant implications for rain vs. snow at higher elevations, the

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Yide Li; Theodor D. Leininger; Gary Feng

2017-01-01

Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature...

Assessing temporal trends and source regions of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in air under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Fiona; Shoeib, Mahiba; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios; Eckhardt, Sabine; Stohl, Andreas; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Li, Henrik; Fellin, Phil; Su, Yushan; Hung, Hayley

2018-01-01

Long-term Arctic air monitoring of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) is essential in assessing their long-range transport and for evaluating the effectiveness of chemical control initiatives. We report for the first time temporal trends of neutral and ionic PFASs in air from three arctic stations: Alert (Canada, 2006-2014); Zeppelin (Svalbard, Norway, 2006-2014) and Andøya (Norway, 2010-2014). The most abundant PFASs were the perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), and fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs). All of these chemicals exhibited increasing trends at Alert with doubling times (t2) of 3.7 years (y) for PFOA, 2.9 y for PFOS, 2.5 y for PFBA, 5.0 y for 8:2 FTOH and 7.0 y for 10:2 FTOH. In contrast, declining or non-changing trends, were observed for PFOA and PFOS at Zeppelin (PFOA, half-life, t1/2 = 7.2 y; PFOS t1/2 = 67 y), and Andøya (PFOA t1/2 = 1.9 y; PFOS t1/2 = 11 y). The differences in air concentrations and in time trends between the three sites may reflect the differences in regional regulations and source regions. We investigate the source region for particle associated compounds using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Model results showed that PFOA and PFOS are impacted by air masses originating from the ocean or land. For instance, PFOA at Alert and PFOS at Zeppelin were dominated by oceanic air masses whereas, PFOS at Alert and PFOA at Zeppelin were influenced by air masses transported from land.

Spatio-Temporal Change Modeling of Lulc: a Semantic Kriging Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharjee, S.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Spatio-temporal land-use/ land-cover (LULC) change modeling is important to forecast the future LULC distribution, which may facilitate natural resource management, urban planning, etc. The spatio-temporal change in LULC trend often exhibits non-linear behavior, due to various dynamic factors, such as, human intervention (e.g., urbanization), environmental factors, etc. Hence, proper forecasting of LULC distribution should involve the study and trend modeling of historical data. Existing literatures have reported that the meteorological attributes (e.g., NDVI, LST, MSI), are semantically related to the terrain. Being influenced by the terrestrial dynamics, the temporal changes of these attributes depend on the LULC properties. Hence, incorporating meteorological knowledge into the temporal prediction process may help in developing an accurate forecasting model. This work attempts to study the change in inter-annual LULC pattern and the distribution of different meteorological attributes of a region in Kolkata (a metropolitan city in India) during the years 2000-2010 and forecast the future spread of LULC using semantic kriging (SemK) approach. A new variant of time-series SemK is proposed, namely Rev-SemKts to capture the multivariate semantic associations between different attributes. From empirical analysis, it may be observed that the augmentation of semantic knowledge in spatio-temporal modeling of meteorological attributes facilitate more precise forecasting of LULC pattern.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both

Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.

PubMed

Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L

2014-07-01

Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Temperature trends and Urban Heat Island intensity mapping of the Las Vegas valley area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Adam Leland

Modified urban climate regions that are warmer than rural areas at night are referred to as Urban Heat Islands or UHI. Islands of warmer air over a city can be 12 degrees Celsius greater than the surrounding cooler air. The exponential growth in Las Vegas for the last two decades provides an opportunity to detect gradual temperature changes influenced by an increasing presence of urban materials. This thesis compares ground based thermometric observations and satellite based remote sensing temperature observations to identify temperature trends and UHI areas caused by urban development. Analysis of temperature trends between 2000 and 2010 at ground weather stations has revealed a general cooling trend in the Las Vegas region. Results show that urban development accompanied by increased vegetation has a cooling effect in arid climates. Analysis of long term temperature trends at McCarran and Nellis weather stations show 2.4 K and 1.2 K rise in temperature over the last 60 years. The ground weather station temperature data is related to the land surface temperature images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper to estimate and evaluate urban heat island intensity for Las Vegas. Results show that spatial and temporal trends of temperature are related to the gradual change in urban landcover. UHI are mainly observed at the airport and in the industrial areas. This research provides useful insight into the temporal behavior of the Las Vegas area.

Current status and temporal trend of heavy metals in farmland soil of the Yangtze River Delta Region: Field survey and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shao, Diwei; Zhan, Yu; Zhou, Wenjun; Zhu, Lizhong

2016-12-01

While the spatial distributions of heavy metals in farmland soil of China have been comprehensively delineated, their temporal trends are rarely investigated but are important for environmental risk management. In this study, the current status and temporal trends of heavy metals in the farmland soil of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were evaluated through field survey and meta-analysis. The field survey conducted in 2014 showed that the concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni in the farmland topsoil were 0.23 ± 0.14, 37.63 ± 15.60, 25.83 ± 41.62, 88.38 ± 43.30, and 29.21 ± 12.41 mg kg -1 (mean ± standard deviation), respectively. The heavy metals showed relatively higher concentrations on the borders among Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. In the meta-analysis, we selected 68 published studies related to heavy metal pollution in farmland topsoil of YRD from 2000 to the year (2014) when the field survey was conducted. The results show an increasing trend for Cd (p < 0.05; 0.0081 mg kg -1 year -1 ), a decreasing trend for Cu (p < 0.05; -0.80 mg kg -1 year -1 ), and no significant trend for Pb (p = 0.155), Zn (p = 0.746), and Ni (p = 0.305). The increasing rate of Cd from the meta-analysis is consistent with the rate (0.0013 mg kg -1 year -1 ) derived from the mass balance calculation for Cd, where atmospheric deposition originated from intensive coal combustion is considered as the main source of Cd in the topsoil. The decreasing trend of Cu is likely due to largely reduced application of copper-based agrochemicals. Environmental regulation and soil remediation are needed to protect food safety and ecosystem from heavy metal pollution, especially Cd. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographic and temporal trends in influenzalike illness, Japan, 1992-1999.

PubMed

Sakai, Takatsugu; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Asami; Saito, Reiko; Tanabe, Naohito; Taniguchi, Kiyosu

2004-10-01

From 1992 to 1999, we analyzed >2.5 million cases of influenzalike illness (ILI). Nationwide influenza epidemics generally lasted 3-4 months in winter. Kriging analysis, which illustrates geographic movement, showed that the starting areas of peak ILI activity were mostly found in western Japan. Two spreading patterns, monotonous and multitonous, were observed. Monotonous patterns in two seasons featured peak ILI activity that covered all of Japan within 3 to 5 weeks in larger epidemics with new antigenic variants of A/H3N2. Multitonous patterns, observed in the other five seasons, featured peak ILI activity within 12 to 15 weeks in small epidemics without new variants. Applying the kriging method allowed better visualization and understanding of spatiotemporal trends in seasonal ILI activity. This method will likely be an important tool for future influenza surveillance in Japan.

27 Years of Satellite Ozone Data: Merging of Data Records from Multiple Instruments to Observe Global Trends and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.

2007-01-01

Satellite measurements provide a unique global view of the stratospheric ozone layer. The perspective from satellites allowed for the early mapping of the extent of the phenomenon that became known as the ozone hole. The use of the satellite data for global trends outside of the ozone hole confronts the problem of the possible drift of the calibration of the instrument. The TOMS and SBUV instruments on Nimbus 7 lasted for more than a decade. During that time, the diffuser plate used to reflect sunlight into the measurement degraded (darkened) and the instruments each had a number of events that made calibration determination difficult. Initially the TOMS data were used for global trends by adjusting the overall calibration to agree with a set of ground-based measurement stations. But this was unsatisfactory because the record was not independent of those ground measurements and problems were found in many of the ground stations by using TOMS as a transfer standard. After many years of dedicated work, the TOMS/SBUV team learned how to correct for instrument drift, remove the interfering effects of aerosols, and establish instrument-to-instrument calibrations resulting in a long-term record that can be used for accurate trend and recovery determination. The global view of the satellites allows for determination not only of temporal change in ozone, but spatial fingerprints that allow more confidence in assigning cause to observed changes.

Detecting long-term temporal trends in sediment-bound trace metals from urbanised catchments.

PubMed

Sharley, David J; Sharp, Simon M; Bourgues, Sophie; Pettigrove, Vincent J

2016-12-01

The shift from rural lifestyles to urban living has dramatically altered the way humans interact and live across the globe. With over 50% of the world's populations living within cities, and significant increases expected over the next 50 years, it is critical that changes to social, economic and environmental sustainability of cities globally be implicit. Protecting and enhancing aquatic ecosystems, which provide important ecosystem services, is challenging. A number of factors influence pollutants in urban waterways including changes in land-use, impervious area and stormwater discharges, with sediment-bound pollution a major issue worldwide. This work aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of trace metals in freshwater sediments from six urbanised catchment over a 30-year period. It provides an estimate of pollution using a geoaccumulation index and examines possible toxicity using a probable effect concentration quotient (mPECq). Results showed significant temporal changes in metal concentrations over time, with lead generally decreasing in all but one of the sites, attributed to significant changes in environmental policies and the active elimination of lead products. Temporal changes in other metals were variable and likely dependent on site-specific factors. While it is likely that diffuse pollution is driving changes in zinc, for metals such as lead, chromium and copper, it is likely that watershed landuse and/or point sources are more important. The results clearly indicated that changes to watershed landuse, environmental policy and pollution abatement programs are all driving changes in sediment quality, highlighting the utility of long-term sediment monitoring for assessment of urban watershed condition. While this study has demonstrated the utility of detecting long-term changes in metal concentrations, this approach could easily be adapted to detect and assess future trends in other hydrophobic contaminants and emerging chemicals

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the

Polybrominated biphenyl ethers in breast milk and infant formula from Shanghai, China: temporal trends, daily intake, and risk assessment.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaolan; Zhang, Kaiqiong; Yang, Dan; Ma, Li; Lei, Bingli; Zhang, Xinyu; Zhou, Jing; Fang, Xiangming; Yu, Yingxin

2014-11-01

To investigate the temporal trend of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in breast milk and assess the risks to breast- and formula-fed infants, breast milk and infant formula samples were collected from Shanghai, China. The PBDE concentrations decreased from 14.8 to 4.85 pmol/g lipid weight during 2006-2012, with a rate of decrease by half approximately every four years. Although there were no significant correlations between the total PBDEs in breast milk and age, parity, and pre-pregnant BMI of mothers, there were significant differences between primiparous and multiparous mothers for tri- to hepta-BDEs. PBDEs in breast milk were much higher than those in infant formula (equivalent to 91.9 vs. 5.25 pg/mL). Among the different brand infant formulas, there were no significant differences in their PBDE concentrations. The estimated daily intake of PBDEs by breast- and formula-fed infants suggested that breast-fed infants are exposed to much more PBDEs than formula-fed ones (12.9 vs. 0.72 ng/kg-bw/day). However, the hazard quotient values were much smaller than one, indicating that the ingested PBDEs did not exert obvious adverse effects on both breast- and formula-fed infants considering non-carcinogenic effect endpoint. This is the first report on temporal trend of PBDEs in breast milk from China. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Historical trend in river ice thickness and coherence in hydroclimatological trends in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Dudley, R.W.

2003-01-01

We analyzed long-term records of ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine and air temperature in Maine to determine whether there were temporal trends that were associated with climate warming. The trend in ice thickness was compared and correlated with regional time series of winter air temperature, heating degree days (HDD), date of river ice-out, seasonal center-of-volume date (SCVD) (date on which half of the stream runoff volume during the period 1 Jan. to 31 May has occurred), water temperature, and lake ice-out date. All of these variables except lake ice-out date showed significant temporal trends during the 20th century. Average ice thickness around 28 February decreased by about 23 cm from 1912 to 2001. Over the period 1900 to 1999, winter air temperature increased by 1.7??C and HDD decreased by about 7.5%. Final ice-out date on the Piscataquis River occurred earlier (advanced), by 0.21 days yr-1 over the period 1931 to 2002, and the SCVD advanced by 0.11 days yr-1 over the period 1903 to 2001. Ice thickness was significantly correlated (P-value < 0.01) with winter air temperature, HDD, river ice-out, and SCVD. These systematic temporal trends in multiple hydrologic indicator variables indicate a coherent response to climate forcing.

Multiplatform observations enabling albedo retrievals with high temporal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihelä, Aku; Manninen, Terhikki; Key, Jeffrey; Sun, Qingsong; Sütterlin, Melanie; Lattanzio, Alessio; Schaaf, Crystal

2017-04-01

In this paper we show that combining observations from different polar orbiting satellite families (such as AVHRR and MODIS) is physically justifiable and technically feasible. Our proposed approach will lead to surface albedo retrievals at higher temporal resolution than the state of the art, with comparable or better accuracy. This study is carried out in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Sustained and coordinated processing of Environmental Satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM) project SCM-02 (http://www.scope-cm.org/projects/scm-02/). Following a spectral homogenization of the Top-of-Atmosphere reflectances of bands 1 & 2 from AVHRR and MODIS, both observation datasets are atmospherically corrected with a coherent atmospheric profile and algorithm. The resulting surface reflectances are then fed into an inversion of the RossThick-LiSparse-Reciprocal surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model. The results of the inversion (BRDF kernels) may then be integrated to estimate various surface albedo quantities. A key principle here is that the larger number of valid surface observations with multiple satellites allows us to invert the BRDF coefficients within a shorter time span, enabling the monitoring of relatively rapid surface phenomena such as snowmelt. The proposed multiplatform approach is expected to bring benefits in particular to the observation of the albedo of the polar regions, where persistent cloudiness and long atmospheric path lengths present challenges to satellite-based retrievals. Following a similar logic, the retrievals over tropical regions with high cloudiness should also benefit from the method. We present results from a demonstrator dataset of a global combined AVHRR-GAC and MODIS dataset covering the year 2010. The retrieved surface albedo is compared against quality-monitored in situ albedo observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Additionally, the combined retrieval

On the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Todd W.

2017-02-01

More tornadoes are produced per year in the United States than in any other country, and these tornadoes have produced tremendous losses of life and property. Understanding how tornado activity will respond to climate change is important if we wish to prepare for future changes. Trends in various tornado and tornado day characteristics, including their annual frequencies, their temporal variability, and their spatial distributions, have been reported in the past few years. This study contributes to this body of literature by further analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States. The analyses performed in this study support previously reported findings in addition to providing new perspectives, including that the temporal trends are observed only in low-frequency and high-frequency tornado days and that the eastward shift in tornado activity is produced, in part, by the increasing number of high-frequency tornado days, which tend to occur to the east of the traditionally depicted tornado alley in the Great Plains.

Observing temporal patterns of vertical flux through streambed sediments using time-series analysis of temperature records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautz, Laura K.

2012-09-01

SummaryRates of water exchange between surface water and groundwater (SW-GW) can be highly variable over time due to temporal changes in streambed hydraulic conductivity, storm events, and oscillation of stage due to natural and regulated river flow. There are few effective field methods available to make continuous measurements of SW-GW exchange rates with the temporal resolution required in many field applications. Here, controlled laboratory experiments were used to explore the accuracy of analytical solutions to the one-dimensional heat transport model for capturing temporal variability of flux through porous media from propagation of a periodic temperature signal to depth. Column experiments were used to generate one-dimensional flow of water and heat through saturated sand with a quasi-sinusoidal temperature oscillation at the upstream boundary. Measured flux rates through the column were compared to modeled flux rates derived using the computer model VFLUX and the amplitude ratio between filtered temperature records from two depths in the column. Imposed temporal changes in water flux through the column were designed to replicate observed patterns of flux in the field, derived using the same methodology. Field observations of temporal changes in flux were made over multiple days during a large-scale storm event and diurnally during seasonal baseflow recession. Temporal changes in flux that occur gradually over days, sub-daily, and instantaneously in time can be accurately measured using the one-dimensional heat transport model, although those temporal changes may be slightly smoothed over time. Filtering methods effectively isolate the time-variable amplitude and phase of the periodic temperature signal, effectively eliminating artificial temporal flux patterns otherwise imposed by perturbations of the temperature signal, which result from typical weather patterns during field investigations. Although previous studies have indicated that sub

Are there local-scale effects of altitude, slope and aspect on temporal trends in a spatially high-resolved plant phenological network in the Swiss Alps 1971-2000?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeanneret, François; Rutishauser, This; Kottmann, Silvan; Brügger, Robert

2010-05-01

Shifts in phenology of plants and animals have been widely observed as consequence of climate change impacts and temperature increase. Species-specific data are often assigned to limited and generalized site information on the precise location of the observation. However, as much meta-information as possible on the individual plant under observations is necessary to assess the impacts of changing weather patterns at the local scale that are related to changes in radiation, fog, frost and dominating circulation. Here we used plant phenological data of the BERNCLIM network that collects data in the Canton of Bern (Switzerland) and adjacent areas covering a total area of 7,000 km2 since 1970. The number of observation sites reached up to 600 observation sites with detailed meta-information of several locations within each site. The precision of coordinates for each location is generally less than one hectare. This information allows to differentiate several terrain-types, based on altitude, slope and aspect. We used original observations and two interpolated data sets based of the blooming of hazel (Corylus avellana L.) for early spring, dandelion (Taraxacum officinale aggr.) for mid spring, and apple trees (Malus domestica Borkh.) for late spring. In addition we used interpolated data by using averaged maximum differences between several locations of a site and an algorithm based on constant spatial patterns in the 1971-1974 period. Phenological maps were created using multiple linear regression models with longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect as independent variables and phenological date of each phase as dependent variable models in a Geographical Information System (GIS). For this contribution we analysed the impact of local terrain differences on phenological trends of three plant species. Specifically, we addressed the question whether differences in altitude, slope and aspect lead to systematic differences in temporal trends for the 1971-2000 period

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships Between Anomalies of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, percent cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Near real time products, stating with September 2002, have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. Results in this paper included products through April 2008. The time period studied is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, are shown below, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. The ability to match this data represents a good test of a model's response to El Nino.

Evolution of spatial and temporal correlations in the solar wind - Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, L. W.; Matthaeus, W. H.; Roberts, D. A.; Goldstein, M. L.

1992-01-01

Observations of solar wind magnetic field spectra from 1-22 AU indicate a distinctive structure in frequency which evolves with increasing heliocentric distance. At 1 AU extremely low frequency correlations are associated with temporal variations at the solar period and its first few harmonics. For periods of l2-96 hours, a l/f distribution is observed, which we interpret as an aggregate of uncorrelated coronal structures which have not dynamically interacted by 1 AU. At higher frequencies the familiar Kolmogorov-like power law is seen. Farther from the sun the frequency break point between the shallow l/f and the steeper Kolmogorov spectrum evolves systematically towards lower frequencies. We suggest that the Kolmogorov-like spectra emerge due to in situ turbulence that generates spatial correlations associated with the turbulent cascade and that the background l/f noise is a largely temporal phenomenon, not associated with in situ dynamical processes. In this paper we discuss these ideas from the standpoint of observations from several interplanetary spacecraft.

Spatio-temporal cluster detection of chickenpox in Valencia, Spain in the period 2008-2012.

PubMed

Iftimi, Adina; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisco; Míguez Santiyán, Ana; Montes, Francisco

2015-05-18

Chickenpox is a highly contagious airborne disease caused by Varicella zoster, which affects nearly all non-immune children worldwide with an annual incidence estimated at 80-90 million cases. To analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of the chickenpox incidence in the city of Valencia, Spain two complementary statistical approaches were used. First, we evaluated the existence of clusters and spatio-temporal interaction; secondly, we used this information to find the locations of the spatio-temporal clusters via the space-time permutation model. The first method used detects any aggregation in our data but does not provide the spatial and temporal information. The second method gives the locations, areas and time-frame for the spatio-temporal clusters. An overall decreasing time trend, a pronounced 12-monthly periodicity and two complementary periods were observed. Several areas with high incidence, surrounding the center of the city were identified. The existence of aggregation in time and space was observed, and a number of spatio-temporal clusters were located.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis. PMID:12515691

Temporal Trends in the Swedish HIV-1 Epidemic: Increase in Non-B Subtypes and Recombinant Forms over Three Decades

PubMed Central

Santacatterina, Michele; Bratt, Göran; Gisslén, Magnus; Albert, Jan; Sonnerborg, Anders

2014-01-01

Background HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) still dominates in resource-rich countries but increased migration contributes to changes in the global subtype distribution. Also, spread of non-B subtypes within such countries occurs. The trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the epidemic in the country has earlier not been reported in detail. Thus the primary objective of this study is to describe the temporal trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the HIV-1 epidemic in Sweden over three decades. Methods HIV-1 pol sequences from patients (n = 3967) diagnosed in Sweden 1983– 2012, corresponding to >40% of patients ever diagnosed, were re-subtyped using several automated bioinformatics tools. The temporal trends of subtypes and recombinants during three decades were described by a multinomial logistic regression model. Results All eleven group M HIV-1 subtypes and sub-subtypes (78%), 17 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) (19%) and 32 unique recombinants forms (URF) (3%) were identified. When all patients were analysed, there was an increase of newly diagnosed HIV-1C (RR, 95%CI: 1.10, 1.06–1.14), recombinants (1.20, 1.17–1.24) and other pure subtypes (1.11, 1.07–1.16) over time compared to HIV-1B. The same pattern was found when all patients infected in Sweden (n = 1165) were analysed. Also, for MSM patients infected in Sweden (n = 921), recombinant forms and other pure subtypes increased. Significance Sweden exhibits one of the most diverse subtype epidemics outside Africa. The increase of non-B subtypes is due to migration and to a spread among heterosexually infected patients and MSM within the country. This viral heterogeneity may become a hotspot for development of more diverse and complex recombinant forms if the epidemics converge. PMID:24922326

Temporal trends in the Swedish HIV-1 epidemic: increase in non-B subtypes and recombinant forms over three decades.

PubMed

Neogi, Ujjwal; Häggblom, Amanda; Santacatterina, Michele; Bratt, Göran; Gisslén, Magnus; Albert, Jan; Sonnerborg, Anders

2014-01-01

HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) still dominates in resource-rich countries but increased migration contributes to changes in the global subtype distribution. Also, spread of non-B subtypes within such countries occurs. The trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the epidemic in the country has earlier not been reported in detail. Thus the primary objective of this study is to describe the temporal trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the HIV-1 epidemic in Sweden over three decades. HIV-1 pol sequences from patients (n = 3967) diagnosed in Sweden 1983-2012, corresponding to >40% of patients ever diagnosed, were re-subtyped using several automated bioinformatics tools. The temporal trends of subtypes and recombinants during three decades were described by a multinomial logistic regression model. All eleven group M HIV-1 subtypes and sub-subtypes (78%), 17 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) (19%) and 32 unique recombinants forms (URF) (3%) were identified. When all patients were analysed, there was an increase of newly diagnosed HIV-1C (RR, 95%CI: 1.10, 1.06-1.14), recombinants (1.20, 1.17-1.24) and other pure subtypes (1.11, 1.07-1.16) over time compared to HIV-1B. The same pattern was found when all patients infected in Sweden (n = 1165) were analysed. Also, for MSM patients infected in Sweden (n = 921), recombinant forms and other pure subtypes increased. Sweden exhibits one of the most diverse subtype epidemics outside Africa. The increase of non-B subtypes is due to migration and to a spread among heterosexually infected patients and MSM within the country. This viral heterogeneity may become a hotspot for development of more diverse and complex recombinant forms if the epidemics converge.

Spatio-temporal mapping of Madagascar's Malaria Indicator Survey results to assess Plasmodium falciparum endemicity trends between 2011 and 2016.

PubMed

Kang, Su Yun; Battle, Katherine E; Gibson, Harry S; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Ramboarina, Stéphanie; Zimmerman, Peter A; Weiss, Daniel J; Cameron, Ewan; Gething, Peter W; Howes, Rosalind E

2018-05-23

Reliable measures of disease burden over time are necessary to evaluate the impact of interventions and assess sub-national trends in the distribution of infection. Three Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) have been conducted in Madagascar since 2011. They provide a valuable resource to assess changes in burden that is complementary to the country's routine case reporting system. A Bayesian geostatistical spatio-temporal model was developed in an integrated nested Laplace approximation framework to map the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection among children from 6 to 59 months in age across Madagascar for 2011, 2013 and 2016 based on the MIS datasets. The model was informed by a suite of environmental and socio-demographic covariates known to influence infection prevalence. Spatio-temporal trends were quantified across the country. Despite a relatively small decrease between 2013 and 2016, the prevalence of malaria infection has increased substantially in all areas of Madagascar since 2011. In 2011, almost half (42.3%) of the country's population lived in areas of very low malaria risk (<1% parasite prevalence), but by 2016, this had dropped to only 26.7% of the population. Meanwhile, the population in high transmission areas (prevalence >20%) increased from only 2.2% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2016. A comparison of the model-based estimates with the raw MIS results indicates there was an underestimation of the situation in 2016, since the raw figures likely associated with survey timings were delayed until after the peak transmission season. Malaria remains an important health problem in Madagascar. The monthly and annual prevalence maps developed here provide a way to evaluate the magnitude of change over time, taking into account variability in survey input data. These methods can contribute to monitoring sub-national trends of malaria prevalence in Madagascar as the country aims for geographically progressive elimination.

Spatio-Temporal Cellular Imaging of Polymer-pDNA Nanocomplexes Affords In Situ Morphology and Trafficking Trends

PubMed Central

Ingle, Nilesh P.; Lian, Xue; Reineke, Theresa M.

2013-01-01

Synthetic polymers are ubiquitous in the development of drug and polynucleotide delivery vehicles, offering promise for personalized medicine. However, the polymer structure plays a central yet elusive role in dictating the efficacy, safety, mechanisms, and kinetics of therapeutic transport in a spatial and temporal manner. Here, we decipher the intracellular evolutionary pathways pertaining to shape, size, location, and mechanism of four structurally-divergent polymer vehicles (Tr455, Tr477, jetPEI™ and Glycofect™) that create colloidal nanoparticles (polyplexes) when complexed with fluorescently-labeled plasmid DNA (pDNA). Multiple high resolution tomographic images of whole HeLa (human cervical adenocarcinoma) cells were captured via confocal microscopy at 4, 8, 12 and 24 hours. The images were reconstructed to visualize and quantify trends in situ in a four-dimensional spatio-temporal manner. The data revealed heretofore-unseen images of polyplexes in situ and structure-function relationships, i.e., Glycofect™ polyplexes are trafficked as the smallest polyplex complexes and Tr455 polyplexes have expedited translocation to the perinuclear region. Also, all of the polyplex types appeared to be preferentially internalized and trafficked via early endosomes affiliated with caveolae, a Rab-5-dependent pathway, actin, and microtubules. PMID:24007201

Near-surface remote sensing of spatial and temporal variation in canopy phenology

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; Bobby H. Braswell; David Y. Hollinger; Julian P. Jenkins; Scott V. Ollinger

2009-01-01

There is a need to document how plant phenology is responding to global change factors, particularly warming trends. "Near-surface" remote sensing, using radiometric instruments or imaging sensors, has great potential to improve phenological monitoring because automated observations can be made at high temporal frequency. Here we build on previous work and...

Trends in ecosystem water use efficiency are potentially amplified by plasticity in plant functional traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations stimulate photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, modifying plant water use efficiency. We analyzed eddy covariance flux tower observations from 20 forested ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere. For these sites, a previous study showed an increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) five times greater than expectations. We used an updated dataset and robust uncertainty quantification to analyze these contemporary trends in IWUE. We found that IWUE increased in the last 15-20 years by roughly 1.4% yr-1, which is less than previously reported, but still 2.8 times greater than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations by means of an ecosystem model based on temporally static plant functional traits (i.e. model parameters) do not reproduce this increase. We tested the hypothesis that the observed increase in IWUE could be attributed to changes in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental changes. Simulation results accounting for trait plasticity (i.e. by changing model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity) match the observed trends in IWUE, with an increase in both leaf internal CO2 concentration and gross ecosystem production (GEP), and with a negligible trend in evapotranspiration (ET). This supports the hypothesis that changes in plant functional traits of about 1.0% yr-1 can explain the observed IWUE trends and are consistent with observed trends of GEP and ET at larger scales. Our results highlight that at decadal or longer time scales trait plasticity can considerably influence the water, carbon and energy fluxes with implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant traits and their representation in Earth system models.

Mercury concentrations in king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) feathers at Crozet Islands (sub-Antarctic): temporal trend between 1966--1974 and 2000--2001.

PubMed

Scheifler, Renaud; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Le Bohec, Céline; Crini, Nadia; Coeurdassier, Michaël; Badot, Pierre-Marie; Giraudoux, Patrick; Le Maho, Yvon

2005-01-01

Remote sub-Antarctic islands and their wildlife may be contaminated by mercury via atmospheric and oceanic currents. Because of mercury's high toxicity and its capacity to be biomagnified in marine food chains, top predators like seabirds may be threatened by secondary poisoning. The present study provides data regarding mercury concentrations in breast feathers sampled in 2000 and 2001 on king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) living at Crozet Islands. These contemporary concentrations were compared to those measured in feathers of king penguins sampled in the same colony between 1966 and 1974 and preserved in a museum (1970s sample). The average concentration of the contemporary sample is 1.98 microg g(-1) (dry mass) and is significantly different than the concentrations reported in some other penguin species. The concentration of the contemporary sample is significantly lower than the concentration of the 1970s sample (2.66 microg g(-1)). This suggests that mercury concentrations in southern hemisphere seabirds do not increase, which conflicts with the trends observed in the northern hemisphere. This difference in temporal trends between the northern and southern hemispheres usually is attributed mainly to a higher degree of pollutant emission in the northern hemisphere. Parameters that may explain the interspecies differences in mercury concentrations are discussed. These first results may constitute a basis for further ecotoxicological and/or biomonitoring studies of king penguins in these remote ecosystems.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Visualizing geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity in the United States, 1991 to 1996. National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System Collaborating Laboratories.

PubMed

Török, T J; Kilgore, P E; Clarke, M J; Holman, R C; Bresee, J S; Glass, R I

1997-10-01

Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe pediatric gastroenteritis worldwide. A vaccine may soon be licensed for use in the United States to prevent this disease. To characterize US geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity, we made contour maps showing the timing of peak rotavirus activity. From July, 1991, through June, 1996, 79 laboratories participating in the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System reported on a weekly basis the number of stool specimens that tested positive for rotavirus. The peak weeks in rotavirus detections from each laboratory were mapped using kriging, a modeling technique originally developed for geostatistics. During the 5-year period 118,716 fecal specimens were examined, of which 27,616 (23%) were positive for rotavirus. Timing of rotavirus activity varied by geographic location in a characteristic pattern in which peak activity occurred first in the Southwest from October through December and last in the Northeast in April or May. The Northwest exhibited considerable year-to-year variability (range, December to May) in the timing of peak activity, whereas the temporal pattern in the remainder of the contiguous 48 states was relatively constant. Kriging is a useful method for visualizing geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity in the United States. This analysis confirmed trends reported in previous years, and it also identified unexpected variability in the timing of peak rotavirus activity in the Northwest. The causes of the seasonal differences in rotavirus activity by region are unknown. Tracking of laboratory detections of rotavirus may provide an effective surveillance tool to assess the impact of a rotavirus vaccination campaign in the United States.

A 10-year spatial and temporal trend of sulfate across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malm, William C.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Ames, Rodger B.; Gebhart, Kristi A.

2002-11-01

Legislative and regulatory mandates have resulted in reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in both the eastern and western United States with anticipation that concurrent levels of ambient SO2, SO42-, and rainwater acidity would decrease. This paper examines spatial and temporal trends in ambient SO42- concentration from 1988 to 1999, SO2 emissions from 1990 to 1999, and the relationship between these two variables. The SO42- concentration data came from combining data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet). Over 70 sites spread across the continental United States are considered in this analysis. From a spatial perspective, the 90th percentile summer sulfate concentrations are highest along the Ohio River Valley and in central Tennessee where the emission density of SO2 is greatest. These concentrations are a factor of 2 greater than the Northeast, northern Michigan, and coastal areas of the Southeast and about a factor of 15 greater than the central western United States. In the East, the largest SO42- decreases in the 80th percentile concentrations occurred north of the Ohio River Valley, while most monitoring sites south of Kentucky and Virginia showed increasing and decreasing trends that were not statistically significant. Big Bend National Park, Texas, Cranberry, North Carolina, and Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, are the only areas that show a statistically significant increase in SO42- mass concentrations. The 1990-1999 annual 80th percentile SO42- time series were compared to the annual SO2 emissions over four broad United States regions. Each region had a unique time series pattern with the SO42- concentrations and SO2 emissions closely tracking each other over the 10-year period. Both the SO42- and SO2 emissions decreased in the Northeast (28%) and the West (15%), while there was little change in the Southeast and a 15% increase over Texas, New Mexico

Spatial and temporal trends in occurrence of emerging and legacy contaminants in the Lower Columbia River 2008-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alvarez, David A.; Perkins, Stephanie D.; Nilsen, Elena B.; Morace, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

The Lower Columbia River in Oregon and Washington, USA, is an important resource for aquatic and terrestrial organisms, agriculture, and commerce. An 86-mile stretch of the river was sampled over a 3 year period in order to determine the spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence and concentration of water-borne organic contaminants. Sampling occurred at 10 sites along this stretch and at 1 site on the Willamette River using the semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) and the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) passive samplers. Contaminant profiles followed the predicted trends of lower numbers of detections and associated concentrations in the rural areas to higher numbers and concentrations at the more urbanized sites. Industrial chemicals, plasticizers, and PAHs were present at the highest concentrations. Differences in concentrations between sampling periods were related to the amount of rainfall during the sampling period. In general, water concentrations of wastewater-related contaminants decreased and concentrations of legacy contaminants slightly increased with increasing rainfall amounts.

Temporal trends in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, and medical coding of sepsis.

PubMed

Thomas, Benjamin S; Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Warren, David K; McCormick, Sandra; Fraser, Victoria J; Marschall, Jonas

2015-11-24

Recent reports using administrative claims data suggest the incidence of community- and hospital-onset sepsis is increasing. Whether this reflects changing epidemiology, more effective diagnostic methods, or changes in physician documentation and medical coding practices is unclear. We performed a temporal-trend study from 2008 to 2012 using administrative claims data and patient-level clinical data of adult patients admitted to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Temporal-trend and annual percent change were estimated using regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. We analyzed 62,261 inpatient admissions during the 5-year study period. 'Any SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on a single calendar day during the hospitalization) and 'multi-day SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on 3 or more calendar days), which both use patient-level data, and medical coding for sepsis (i.e., ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis codes 995.91, 995.92, or 785.52) were present in 35.3 %, 17.3 %, and 3.3 % of admissions, respectively. The incidence of admissions coded for sepsis increased 9.7 % (95 % CI: 6.1, 13.4) per year, while the patient data-defined events of 'any SIRS' decreased by 1.8 % (95 % CI: -3.2, -0.5) and 'multi-day SIRS' did not change significantly over the study period. Clinically-defined sepsis (defined as SIRS plus bacteremia) and severe sepsis (defined as SIRS plus hypotension and bacteremia) decreased at statistically significant rates of 5.7 % (95 % CI: -9.0, -2.4) and 8.6 % (95 % CI: -4.4, -12.6) annually. All-cause mortality, SIRS mortality, and SIRS and clinically-defined sepsis case fatality did not change significantly during the study period. Sepsis mortality, based on ICD-9-CM codes, however, increased by 8.8 % (95 % CI: 1.9, 16.2) annually. The incidence of sepsis, defined by ICD-9-CM codes, and sepsis mortality increased steadily without a concomitant increase in SIRS or clinically-defined sepsis. Our results highlight the need to develop

Temporal trends in dietary supplement prescriptions of United States military service members suggest a decrease in pyridoxine and increase in vitamin D supplements from 2005 to 2013.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; T Jean, Rosenie; Austin, Krista G; Steelman, Ryan A; Gannon, Julia; Farina, Emily K; Lieberman, Harris R

2016-10-01

Dietary supplements (DSs) can be obtained over-the-counter but can also be prescribed by health-care providers for therapeutic reasons. Few studies have documented this later source despite the fact that 79% of physicians and 82% of nurses have recommended DSs to patients. This investigation assessed prevalence and temporal trends in oral DS prescriptions filled by all United States service members (SMs) from 2005 to 2013 (n = 1 427 080 ± 22 139, mean ± standard deviation (SD)/y). We hypothesize that there would be temporal variations in specific types of DSs. Data obtained from Department of Defense Pharmacy Data Transaction System were grouped by American Hospital Formulary System pharmacologic-therapeutic classifications and prevalence examined over time. About 11% of SMs filled one or more DS prescriptions of 235 180 ± 4926 (mean ± SD) prescriptions/y over the 9-year period. Curve-fitting techniques indicated significant linear declines over time for multivitamins (P = .004), iron preparations (P < .001), antacids (P < .001), and vitamin B and B complex vitamins (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends indicating a rise in early years followed by a leveling off in later years for replacement preparations (P < .001) and vitamin C (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends (P < .001) for vitamin E indicating a decline in early years and leveling off in later years, and vitamin D indicating little change in early years followed by a large rise subsequently (P < .001). This study identified temporal trends in specific DS categories that may be associated with changing perceptions of prescribers and/or patients of the appropriate roles of DSs in medicine and public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Spatio-temporal variation of anthropogenic marine debris on Chilean beaches.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Ruz, Valeria; Honorato-Zimmer, Daniela; Gatta-Rosemary, Magdalena; Nuñez, Paloma; Hinojosa, Iván A; Thiel, Martin

2018-01-01

We examined the hypothesis that in an emerging economy such as Chile the abundances of Anthropogenic Marine Debris (AMD) on beaches are increasing over time. The citizen science program Científicos de la Basura ("Litter Scientists") conducted three national surveys (2008, 2012 and 2016) to determine AMD composition, abundance, spatial patterns and temporal trends. AMD was found on all beaches along the entire Chilean coast. Highest percentages of AMD in all surveys were plastics and cigarette butts, which can be attributed to local sources (i.e. beach users). The Antofagasta region in northern Chile had the highest abundance of AMD compared with all other zones. Higher abundances of AMD were found at the upper stations from almost all zones. No significant tendency of increasing or decreasing AMD densities was observed during the 8years covered by our study, which suggests that economic development alone cannot explain temporal trends in AMD densities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends of acute nephrolithiasis in Auckland, New Zealand.

PubMed

Du, Jason; Johnston, Richard; Rice, Michael

2009-07-24

An increasing amount of evidence suggests that the occurrence of kidney stone disease has increased over the last 50 years. No data analysis on temporal trends in Auckland, New Zealand has ever been performed. The aim of this study was to investigate the changing pattern by age, ethnicity, and gender on stone incidence over a 10-year period. Demographic data was collected on all patients who presented with renal colic. Population numbers were provided by the New Zealand ministry of statistics using regular census data. The analysis was performed using Pearson's correlation coefficients and a Poisson regression model. From 1997 to 2007, 17,532 new stones were coded as nephrolithiasis with an age range of 1-97. Disease incidence amongst Auckland residents was greater in 2007 than 1997 (0.131% or 131 per 100,000 population vs 0.102% or 102 per 100,000 population. p=0.012). The male to female ratio changed over time with a greater proportion of females presenting in 2007 than 1997 (0.47 vs 0.41, p<0.05). Pacific, Asian, and Maori incidence increased faster compared to European whilst those from the Middle East were the only group to have a stable rate (0.26% or 260/100,000 per year) over the 10-year period. Incidence of kidney stone disease in the Auckland region has increased significantly from 1997 to 2007. Different ethnic groups had different rates of change, but all groups showed an increasing incidence over time, with the exception of those from the Middle East. A greater proportion of patients are female than 10 years ago.

Spatial-temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007-13.

PubMed

Waruru, Anthony; Achia, Thomas N O; Muttai, Hellen; Ng'ang'a, Lucy; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Ochanda, Boniface; Katana, Abraham; Young, Peter W; Tobias, James L; Juma, Peter; De Cock, Kevin M; Tylleskär, Thorkild

2018-01-01

Using spatial-temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial-temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (<8 weeks after birth), age at specimen collection, infant ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial-temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5-5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p < 0.01. Uptake of testing ≤8 weeks after birth was under 50% in 2007 and increased to 64.1% by 2013, p < 0.01. By 2013, the overall standardized MTCT rate was 447 infections per 100,000 live births. Based on Bayesian deviance information criterion comparisons, the spatial-temporal model with maternal and infant covariates was best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in programmatic impact over time. During this pre-Option B

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China

PubMed Central

Bao, Changjun; Hu, Jianli; Liu, Wendong; Liang, Qi; Wu, Ying; Norris, Jessie; Peng, Zhihang; Yu, Rongbin; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng

2014-01-01

Objective This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission. Methods County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions. Results The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, P<0.001). The time series model was established as ARIMA (1, 12, 0), which predicted well for cases from August to December, 2011. Highways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64) and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04) as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province. Conclusion Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time. PMID:24416167

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

Trends in bromide wet deposition concentrations in the contiguous United States, 2001-2016.

PubMed

Wetherbee, Gregory A; Lehmann, Christopher M B; Kerschner, Brian M; Ludtke, Amy S; Green, Lee A; Rhodes, Mark F

2018-02-01

Bromide (Br - ) and other solute concentration data from wet deposition samples collected and analyzed by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) from 2001 to 2016, were statistically analyzed for trends both geographically and temporally by precipitation type. Analysis was limited to NADP sites in the contiguous 48 United States. The Br - concentrations for this time period had a high number of values censored at the detection limits with greater than 86 percent of sample concentrations below analytical detection. Bromide was more frequently detected at NADP sites in coastal regions. Analysis using specialized statistical techniques for censored data revealed that Br - concentrations varied by precipitation type with higher concentrations usually observed in liquid versus precipitation containing snow. Negative temporal trends in Br - wet deposition concentrations were observed at a majority of NADP sites; approximately 25 percent of these trend values were statistically significant at less than 0.05 to 0.10 significance levels. Potential causes for the negative trends were explored, including annual and seasonal changes in precipitation depth, reduced emissions of methyl bromide (CH 3 Br) from coastal wetlands, and declining industrial use of bromine compounds. The results indicate that Br - in non-coastal wet-deposition comes mainly from long-range transport, not local sources. Correlations between Br - , chloride, and nitrate concentrations also were evaluated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi

2018-04-01

Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.

Spatial and temporal trends in contaminant concentrations in Hexagenia nymphs following a coal ash spill at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Fossil Plant

DOE PAGES

Baker, Tyler F; Jett, Robert Trent; Smith, John G.; ...

2016-02-25

A dike failure at the Tennessee Valley Authority Kingston Fossil Plant in East Tennessee, United States, in December 2008, released approximately 4.1 million m3 of coal ash into the Emory River. From 2009 through 2012, samples of mayfly nymphs ( Hexagenia bilineata) were collected each spring from sites in the Emory, Clinch, and Tennessee Rivers upstream and downstream of the spill. Samples were analyzed for 17 metals. Concentrations of metals were generally highest the first 2 miles downstream of the spill, and then decreased with increasing distance from the spill. Arsenic, B, Ba, Be, Mo, Sb, Se, Sr, and Vmore » appeared to have strong ash signatures, whereas Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb appeared to be associated with ash and other sources. Furthermore, the concentrations for most of these contaminants were modest and are unlikely to cause widespread negative ecological effects. Trends in Hg, Cd, and Zn suggested little (Hg) or no (Cd, Zn) association with ash. Temporal trends suggested that concentrations of ash-related contaminants began to subside after 2010, but because of the limited time period of that analysis (4 yr), further monitoring is needed to verify this trend. The present study provides important information on the magnitude of contaminant exposure to aquatic receptors from a major coal ash spill, as well as spatial and temporal trends for transport of the associated contaminants in a large open watershed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1159 1171. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.« less

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Increasing socioeconomic gap between the young and old: temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity, 2004-2015.

PubMed

Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Mamas, Mamas A; van Marwijk, Harm; Buchan, Iain; Ryan, Andrew M; Doran, Tim

2018-07-01

At a low geographical level, little is known about the associations between population characteristics and deprivation, and their trends, which would be directly affected by the house market, labour pressures and government policies. We describe temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity. Repeated cross-sectional whole population study for England, 2004-2015, at a low geographical level (average 1500 residents). We calculated weighted medians of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for each subgroup of interest. Over time, we observed increases in relative deprivation for people aged under 30, and aged 30-59, while median deprivation decreased for those aged 60 or over. Subgroup analyses indicated that relative overall deprivation was consistently higher for young adults (aged 20-29) and infants (aged 0-4), with increases in deprivation for the latter. Levels of overall deprivation in 2004 greatly varied by ethnicity, with the lowest levels observed for White British and the highest for Blacks. Over time, small reductions were observed in the deprivation gap between White British and all other ethnic groups. Findings were consistent across overall IMD and its health and disability subdomain, but large regional variability was also observed. Government policies, the financial crisis of 2008, education funding and the increasing cost of houses relative to real wages are important parameters in interpreting our findings. Socioeconomic deprivation is an important determinant of health and the inequalities this work highlights may have significant implications for future fiscal and healthcare policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena F.

2010-01-01

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of

Penguins as bioindicators of mercury contamination in the southern Indian Ocean: geographical and temporal trends.

PubMed

Carravieri, Alice; Cherel, Yves; Jaeger, Audrey; Churlaud, Carine; Bustamante, Paco

2016-06-01

Penguins have been recently identified as useful bioindicators of mercury (Hg) transfer to food webs in the Southern Ocean over different spatial and temporal scales. Here, feather Hg concentrations were measured in adults and chicks of all the seven penguin species breeding in the southern Indian Ocean, over a large latitudinal gradient spanning Antarctic, subantarctic and subtropical sites. Hg was also measured in feathers of museum specimens of penguins collected at the same sites in the 1950s and 1970s. Our aim was to evaluate geographical and historical variations in Hg transfer to penguins, while accounting for feeding habits by using the stable isotope technique (δ(13)C, habitat; δ(15)N, diet/trophic level). Adult feather Hg concentrations in contemporary individuals ranged from 0.7 ± 0.2 to 5.9 ± 1.9 μg g(-1) dw in Adélie and gentoo penguins, respectively. Inter-specific differences in Hg accumulation were strong among both adults and chicks, and mainly linked to feeding habits. Overall, penguin species that feed in Antarctic waters had lower feather Hg concentrations than those that feed in subantarctic and subtropical waters, irrespective of age class and dietary group, suggesting different Hg incorporation into food webs depending on the water mass. While accounting for feeding habits, we detected different temporal variations in feather Hg concentrations depending on species. Notably, the subantarctic gentoo and macaroni penguins had higher Hg burdens in the contemporary rather than in the historical sample, despite similar or lower trophic levels, respectively. Whereas increases in Hg deposition have been recently documented in the Southern Hemisphere, future monitoring is highly needed to confirm or not this temporal trend in penguins, especially in the context of actual changing Hg emission patterns and global warming. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal distribution of suicide mortality: A systematic review.

PubMed

Galvão, Pauliana Valéria Machado; Silva, Hugo Rafael Souza E; Silva, Cosme Marcelo Furtado Passos da

2018-03-01

suicide is a problem with world impact and the leading cause of premature deaths. The study of its distribution over time can bring a changed understanding of parameters attributed to, and the prevention of, suicide. to identify the temporal pattern of suicide by systematic review. Pubmed (Medline), LILACS, Virtual Health Library (VHL), Science Direct and Scopus (Elsevier), Web of Science (Thomson Reuters) and PsyNET (APA) were searched, using suicide-related descriptors and terms, for observational epidemiological studies of the temporal distribution of suicide. The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42016038470). The lack of uniformity in reporting or standardisation of methodology in the studies selected, hindered comparison of populations with similar socioeconomic and cultural profiles, considerably limiting the scope of the results of this review. forty-five studies from 26 different countries were included in this review. Clear seasonal patterns were observed by day of the week, month, season and age-period-cohort effects. Few studies studied by trend, time of day or day of the month. the review findings provide further evidence of substantial temporal patterns influenced by geographic, climatic and social conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric temporal variations in the pre-landfall environment of typhoon Nangka (2015) observed by the Himawari-8 AHI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yong-Keun; Li, Jun; Li, Zhenglong; Schmit, Timothy

2017-11-01

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) legacy atmospheric profile (LAP) retrieval algorithm is applied to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) radiance measurements from the Himawari-8 satellite. Derived products included atmospheric temperature/moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), and atmospheric stability indices. Since both AHI and ABI have 9 similar infrared bands, the GOES-R ABI LAP retrieval algorithm can be applied to the AHI measurements with minimal modifications. With the capability of frequent (10-min interval) full disk observations over the East Asia and Western Pacific regions, the AHI measurements are used to investigate the atmospheric temporal variation in the pre-landfall environment for typhoon Nangka (2015). Before its landfall over Japan, heavy rainfalls from Nangka occurred over the southern region of Honshu Island. During the pre-landfall period, the trends of the AHI LAP products indicated the development of the atmospheric environment favorable for heavy rainfall. Even though, the AHI LAP products are generated only in the clear skies, the 10-minute interval AHI measurements provide detailed information on the pre-landfall environment for typhoon Nangka. This study shows the capability of the AHI radiance measurements, together with the derived products, for depicting the detailed temporal features of the pre-landfall environment of a typhoon, which may also be possible for hurricanes and storms with ABI on the GOES-R satellite.

Levels and temporal trends of toxaphene congeners in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Gouteux, Bruno; Lebeuf, Michel; Muir, Derek C G; Gagné, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-15

Environmentally relevant toxaphene congeners were determined in blubber samples of stranded beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the levels and the temporal trends (1988-1999) of a suite of six chlorobornanes (P26, P40/41, P44, P50, and P62) in the SLE belugas. P26 and P50 mean concentrations were in the same range as those reported for animals living in the Arctic environment suggesting that the atmospheric transport represents the main input of toxaphene to the SLE. A general exponential decline of chlorobornane concentrations in belugas was observed, except for P26 and P50 in males. On average, concentrations decreased by a factor of two in 8.5 years during the 1988-1999 time period. This rate of decline is similar to the reduction of toxaphene emission from agricultural soils in the southern United States reported over the same time period. Some differences in decline rates were observed among the studied CHB congeners. For instance, P62 decreased more rapidly than P26 and P50 in both male and female belugas. Several hypotheses were advanced to explain these differences such as selective metabolism of specific chlorobornanes by SLE belugas or their prey. However, a most likely explanation is the selective degradation of the technical product in soils and atmosphere in the source region.

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Andersen, Jesper H; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J; Dromph, Karsten; Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi; Gustafsson, Bo G; Josefson, Alf B; Norkko, Alf; Villnäs, Anna; Murray, Ciarán

2017-02-01

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. © 2015 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Temporal and spatial trends in nutrient and sediment loading to Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coats, Robert; Lewis, Jack; Alvarez, Nancy L.; Arneson, Patricia

2016-01-01

Since 1980, the Lake Tahoe Interagency Monitoring Program (LTIMP) has provided stream-discharge and water quality data—nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment—at more than 20 stations in Lake Tahoe Basin streams. To characterize the temporal and spatial patterns in nutrient and sediment loading to the lake, and improve the usefulness of the program and the existing database, we have (1) identified and corrected for sources of bias in the water quality database; (2) generated synthetic datasets for sediments and nutrients, and resampled to compare the accuracy and precision of different load calculation models; (3) using the best models, recalculated total annual loads over the period of record; (4) regressed total loads against total annual and annual maximum daily discharge, and tested for time trends in the residuals; (5) compared loads for different forms of N and P; and (6) tested constituent loads against land use-land cover (LULC) variables using multiple regression. The results show (1) N and P loads are dominated by organic N and particulate P; (2) there are significant long-term downward trends in some constituent loads of some streams; and (3) anthropogenic impervious surface is the most important LULC variable influencing water quality in basin streams. Many of our recommendations for changes in water quality monitoring and load calculation methods have been adopted by the LTIMP.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-08-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-01-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

Spatial and temporal trends of perfluorinated compounds in Beluga Whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from Alaska.

PubMed

Reiner, Jessica L; O'Connell, Steven G; Moors, Amanda J; Kucklick, John R; Becker, Paul R; Keller, Jennifer M

2011-10-01

Wildlife from remote locations have been shown to bioaccumulate perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in their tissues. Twelve PFCs, consisting of perfluorinated carboxylic (PFCA) and sulfonic (PFSA) acids as well as the perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) precursor perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), were measured in livers of 68 beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) collected from two subpopulations, Cook Inlet and eastern Chukchi Sea, in Alaska between 1989 and 2006. PFOS and PFOSA were the dominant compounds measured in both beluga stock populations, with overall median concentrations of 10.8 ng/g and 22.8 ng/g, respectively. Long-chain perfluorocarboxylates, PFCAs (9 to 14 carbons), were detected in more than 80% of the samples. Perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTriA) made up a large percentage of the PFCAs measured with median concentrations of 8.49 ng/g and 4.38 ng/g, respectively. To compare differences in location, year, sex, and length, backward stepwise multiple regression models of the individual and total PFC concentrations were used. Spatially, the Cook Inlet belugas had higher concentrations of most PFCAs and PFOS (p < 0.05); however, these belugas had a lower median concentration of PFOSA when compared to belugas from the eastern Chukchi Sea (p < 0.05). Temporal trends indicated most PFCAs, PFHxS, PFOS, and PFOSA concentrations increased from 1989 to 2006 (p < 0.05). Males had significantly higher concentrations of PFTriA, ΣPFCA, and PFOS (p < 0.05). Perfluorononanic acid (PFNA) and PFOS showed a significant decrease in concentration with increasing animal length (p < 0.05). These observations suggest the accumulation of PFCs in belugas is influenced by year, location, sex, and length.

Spatial and temporal trends of mercury and other metals in landlocked char from lakes in the Canadian Arctic archipelago.

PubMed

Muir, Derek; Wang, Xiaowa; Bright, Doug; Lockhart, Lyle; Köck, Günter

2005-12-01

Spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) and 22 other elements were examined in landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) from six lakes in the Canadian Arctic (Char, Resolute and North Lakes, and Amituk Lake on Cornwallis Island, Sapphire Lake on Devon Island and Boomerang Lake on Somerset Island). The objectives of the study were to compare recent concentrations of Hg and other metals in char with older data from Amituk, Resolute and Char Lakes, in order to examine temporal trends as well as to investigate factors influencing spatial trends in contaminant levels such as lake characteristics, trophic position, size and age of the fish. Geometric mean Hg concentrations in dorsal muscle ranged from 0.147 microg/g wet weight (ww) in Resolute Lake to 1.52 microg/g ww in Amituk Lake for samples collected over the period 1999-2003. Char from Amituk Lake also had significantly higher selenium (Se). Mercury in char from Resolute Lake was strongly correlated with fish length, weight, and age, as well as with thallium, lead and Se. In 5 of 6 lakes, Hg concentrations were correlated with stable nitrogen isotope ratios (delta15N) and larger char were feeding at a higher trophic level presumably due to feeding on smaller char. Weight adjusted mean Hg concentrations in char from Amituk Lake, and unadjusted geometric means in Char Lake and Resolute Lakes, did not show any statistically significant increase from the early 1990s to 2003. However, small sample sizes from 1999-2003 for fish <1000 g limited the power of this comparison in Char and Amituk Lakes. In Resolute Lake char, manganese, strontium and zinc showed consistent decreases from 1997 or 1999 to 2003 while nickel generally increased over the 6 year period. Differences in char trophic level inferred from delta15N values best explained the higher concentrations of Hg in Amituk Lake compared to the other lakes.

Temporal trend, geographic distribution, and publication quality in asbestos research.

PubMed

Ugolini, Donatella; Bonassi, Stefano; Cristaudo, Alfonso; Leoncini, Giacomo; Ratto, Giovanni Battista; Neri, Monica

2015-05-01

Asbestos is a well-known cause of cancer and respiratory diseases. The aim of the current study was to investigate the scientific production in asbestos research evaluating temporal trend, geographic distribution, impact factor (IF) of published literature, and taking into account socioeconomic variables. The PubMed database was searched starting from 1970. Publication numbers and IF were evaluated as absolute values and after standardization by population and gross domestic product (GDP). Six thousand nine hundred seven articles related to asbestos were retrieved. Publications grew steeply in the 1970s, leveled off in the 1980s, decreased in the 1990s, and then increased again. Mesothelioma, lung neoplasms, and occupational diseases are the most commonly used keywords. In the period of 1988-2011, 4220 citations were retrieved, 3187 of whom had an impact factor. The US, Italy, and the UK were the most productive countries. European countries published about 20 % more asbestos-related articles than the US, although the latter reached a higher mean IF, ranking second after Australia. When the national scientific production (sum of IF) was compared taking into account socioeconomic variables, Australia and Scandinavian countries performed very well, opposite to all main asbestos producers like Russia, China, and Brazil (except for Canada). The American Journal of Industrial Medicine and the Italian La Medicina del Lavoro published the highest numbers of articles. This study provides the first bibliometric analysis of scientific production in asbestos research. Interest appears to be higher in selected countries, with strong national features, and is growing again in the new millennium.

Temporal variability of total cloud cover at a Mediterranean megacity in the 20th century: Evidence from visual observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

2013-04-01

Cloud cover is one of the major factors that determine the radiation budget and the climate system of the Earth. Moreover, the response of clouds has always been an important source of uncertainty in global climate models. Visual surface observations of clouds have been conducted at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) since the mid 19th century. The historical archive of cloud reports at NOA since 1860 has been digitized and updated, spanning now a period of one and a half century. Mean monthly values of total cloud cover were derived by averaging subdaily observations of cloud cover (3 observations/day). Changes in observational practice (e.g. from 1/10 to 1/8 units) were considered, however, subjective measures of cloud cover from trained observers introduces some kind of uncertainty in the time series. Data before 1884 were considered unreliable, so the analysis was restricted to the series from 1884 to 2012. The time series of total cloud cover at NOA is validated and correlated with historical time series of other (physically related) variables such as the total sunshine duration as well as DTR (Diurnal Temperature Range) which are independently measured. Trend analysis was performed on the mean annual and seasonal series of total cloud cover from 1884-2012. The mean annual values show a marked temporal variability with sub periods of decreasing and increasing tendencies, however, the overall linear trend is positive and statistically significant (p <0.001) amounting to +2% per decade and implying a total increase of almost 25% for the whole analysed period. These results are in agreement qualitatively with the trends reported in other studies worldwide, especially concerning the period before the mid 20th century. On a seasonal basis, spring and summer series present outstanding positive long term trends, while in winter and autumn total cloud cover reveals also positive but less pronounced long term trends Additionally, an evaluation of cloud cover and

Temporal Trends and Changing Racial/ethnic Disparities in Alcohol Problems: Results from the 2000 to 2010 National Alcohol Surveys.

PubMed

Zemore, Sarah E; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J; Mulia, Nina

2013-09-28

Economic conditions and drinking norms have been in considerable flux over the past 10 years. Accordingly, research is needed to evaluate both overall trends in alcohol problems during this period and whether changes within racial/ethnic groups have affected racial/ethnic disparities. We used 3 cross-sectional waves of National Alcohol Survey data (2000, 2005, and 2010) to examine a) temporal trends in alcohol dependence and consequences overall and by race/ethnicity, and b) the effects of temporal changes on racial/ethnic disparities. Analyses involved bivariate tests and multivariate negative binomial regressions testing the effects of race/ethnicity, survey year, and their interaction on problem measures. Both women and men overall showed significant increases in dependence symptoms in 2010 (vs. 2000); women also reported increases in alcohol-related consequences in 2010 (vs. 2000). (Problem rates were equivalent across 2005 and 2000.) However, increases in problems were most dramatic among Whites, and dependence symptoms actually decreased among Latinos of both genders in 2010. Consequently, the long-standing disparity in dependence between Latino and White men was substantially reduced in 2010. Post-hoc analyses suggested that changes in drinking norms at least partially drove increased problem rates among Whites. Results constitute an important contribution to the literature on racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol problems. Findings are not inconsistent with the macroeconomic literature suggesting increases in alcohol problems during economic recession, but the pattern of effects across race/ethnicity and findings regarding norms together suggest, at the least, a revised understanding of how recessions affect drinking patterns and problems.

Undecalcified temporal bone morphology: a methodology useful for gross to fine observation and three-dimensional reconstruction.

PubMed

Fujiyoshi, T; Mogi, G; Watanabe, T; Matsushita, F

1992-01-01

Using a novel method of cutting undecalcified temporal bone specimens, quantitative structural analysis in the human and the Japanese monkey was undertaken. One millimeter thick serial slices made from unembedded temporal bones retained fine structure. Therefore, gross to fine observation could be performed systematically at the macroscopic, light, scanning, and transmission electron microscopic levels. The entire temporal bone three-dimensional reconstruction was completed from embedded sections; consequently, the volume of the tubotympanum and air cell system could be calculated. Available methods by embedding, tungsten carbide sectioning, grinding, and microwave irradiation for decalcification were also examined. These morphologic studies suggest that these novel methods offer timesaving advantages over any presently available techniques, and allow for elucidation of temporal bone morphology with only a few specimens.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Temporal trend of in-hospital major bleeding among patients with non ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Elbarouni, Basem; Elmanfud, Omran; Yan, Raymond T; Fox, Keith A A; Kornder, Jan M; Rose, Barry; Spencer, Frederick A; Welsh, Robert C; Wong, Graham C; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Andrew T

2010-09-01

Although randomized controlled trials support the use of intensive medical and invasive therapies for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS), major bleeding is a serious treatment complication. We sought to determine the temporal trend of in-hospital major bleeding among patients with NSTE-ACS, in relation to the evolving management pattern. We identified 14 111 NSTE-ACS patients enrolled in 4 successive, prospective, multicenter registries (ACS I, 1999-2001; ACS II, 2002-2003; GRACE, 2004-2007; and CANRACE, 2008) in Canada between 1999 and 2008. We collected data on patient characteristics, use of cardiac medications and procedures on standardized case report forms. In all registries, major bleeding was defined a priori as life threatening or fatal bleeding, bleeding requiring transfusion of ≥2 U of packed red cells, or resulting in an absolute decrease in hemoglobin of >30g/L. A total of 14 111 patients had a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS and were included in this study (3294 in the ACS-I registry, 1956 in the ACS-II registry, 7543 in GRACE, and 1318 in CANRACE). Over time, there was a substantial increase in the use of dual anti-platelet (aspirin and thienopyridine) therapy (P for trend <.001), and in rates of in-hospital cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention (both Ps for trend <.001). Overall, major bleeding was relatively infrequent (1.7%). There was no significant increase in the unadjusted rates of major bleeding over time (P for trend = .19). In multivariable analysis adjusting for GRACE risk score and intensive treatment, enrolment period was not an independent predictor of bleeding (P for trend = .98). There was no interaction between the enrolment period and the use of intensive medical and invasive management. Despite more widespread use of dual anti-platelet therapies and invasive cardiac procedures in the management of NSTE-ACS, the rate of major bleeding remains relatively low and has not increased

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy

2012-01-01

Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002-2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002-2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation.

Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

Are there evidences of altitudinal effects of air temperature trends in the European Alps 1820-2013?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoener, W.; Auer, I.; Chimani, B.; Garnekind, M.; Haslinger, K.

2013-12-01

We use the HISTALP data set (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) in order to assess the elevation dependency of air temperature trends within the European Alps. The evidence of altitudinal effects of the climate warming (with higher sensitivity of high mountain regions to warming) is a key statement, or at least key hypothesis, in many studies. The high relevance of such statement resp. hypothesis is obvious if one consider the impacts resulting from such fact, such as snow- and glacier melting and related effects for mountain hydrology. The HISTALP data set stands out with respect to its series lengths and its high level of homogenisation. Interestingly, the HISTALP temperature data show no clear altitudinal dependency of warming or cooling trends within the period 1820-2013. Additionally, a rather homogenous temporal trend could be observed within the entire Greater Alpine Region (GAR). Because HISTALP include also air pressure and vapour pressure series, we could compare our measured air temperatures with mean-column air temperatures, computed by the barometric formula, which were derived from the independently measured air pressure data (using vapour pressure to account for the atmospheric water content) at low resp. high elevations. Computed mean column temperatures are in good agreement with observed temperatures, indicating generally homogenous temporal temperature trend behaviour at different elevations. Our finding contradicts several results from climate modelling attempts and also other studies investigating Alpine temperature trends. We conclude that, whereas modelling results are still limited in the assessment of altitudinal effect of temperature trends from missing atmospheric processes captured by the models, the difference of the trend behaviour compared to other analyses of instrumental air temperatures comes from the seasonal base taken as the basis for trend estimation. It appears that opposite trend in spring and autumn for the period 1980

Temporal Trends in Enterobacter Species Bloodstream Infection: A Population-Based Study, 1998-2007

PubMed Central

Al-Hasan, Majdi N.; Lahr, Brian D.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.; Baddour, Larry M.

2010-01-01

Enterobacter species are the fourth most common cause of gram-negative bloodstream infection (BSI). We examined temporal changes and seasonal variation in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI, estimated 28-day and 1-year mortality, and determined in vitro antimicrobial resistance rates of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1/1/1998 to 12/31/2007. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine temporal changes and seasonal variation in incidence rate and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate 28-day and 1-year mortality. The median age of patients with Enterobacter spp. BSI was 58 years and 53% were female. The overall age- and gender-adjusted incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI was 3.3/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3-4.4). There was a linear trend of increasing incidence rate from 0.8 (95% CI: 0-1.9) to 6.2 (95% CI: 3.0-9.3) per 100,000 person-years between 1998 and 2007 (p=0.002). There was no significant difference in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI during the warmest four months compared to the remainder of the year (incidence rate ratio 1.06 [95% CI: 0.47-2.01]). The overall 28-day and 1-year mortality rates of Enterobacter spp. BSI were 21% (95% CI: 8-34%) and 38% (95% CI: 22-53%), respectively. Up to 13% of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to describe the epidemiology and outcome of Enterobacter spp. BSI. The increase in incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI over the past decade, coupled with its associated antimicrobial resistance, dictate more investigation of this syndrome. PMID:20518795

Estimating trends in atmospheric water vapor and temperature time series over Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Wickert, Jens

2017-08-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists have used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research. In this work, we compare the temporal trends estimated from GNSS time series with those estimated from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements. We aim to evaluate climate evolution in Germany by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: (1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, (2) inferred from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and (3) determined based on daily in situ measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other relevant atmospheric parameters are available from surface measurements of meteorological stations or derived from ERA-Interim. The trends are estimated using two methods: the first applies least squares to deseasonalized time series and the second uses the Theil-Sen estimator. The trends estimated at 113 GNSS sites, with 10 to 19 years temporal coverage, vary between -1.5 and 2.3 mm decade-1 with standard deviations below 0.25 mm decade-1. These results were validated by estimating the trends from ERA-Interim data over the same time windows, which show similar values. These values of the trend depend on the length and the variations of the time series. Therefore, to give a mean value of the PWV trend over Germany, we estimated the trends using ERA-Interim spanning from 1991 to 2016 (26 years) at 227 synoptic stations over Germany. The ERA-Interim data show positive PWV trends of 0.33 ± 0.06 mm decade-1 with standard errors below 0.03 mm decade-1. The increment in PWV varies between 4.5 and 6.5 % per degree Celsius rise in temperature, which is comparable to the theoretical rate of the Clausius

Remotely Sensed Spatio-Temporal Variability of Snow Cover in Himalayan Region with Perspective of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, S.; Ojha, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change and its impact of water resource have gained tremendous attention among scientific committee, governments and other stakeholders since last couple of decades, especially in Himalayan region. In this study, we purpose remotely sensed measurements to monitor snow cover, both spatially and temporal, and assess climate change impact on water resource. The snow cover data from MODIS satellite (2000-2010) have been used to analyze some climate change indicators. In particular, the variability in the maximum snow extent with elevations, its temporal variability (8-day, monthly, seasonal and annual), its variation trend and its relation with temperature have been analyzed. The snow products used in this study are the maximum snow extent and fractional snow covers, which come in 8-day temporal and 500m and 0.05 degree spatial resolutions, respectively. The results showed a tremendous potential of the MODIS snow product for studying the spatial and temporal variability of snow as well as the study of climate change impact in large and inaccessible regions like the Himalayas. The snow area extent (SAE) (%) time series exhibits similar patterns during seven hydrological years, even though there are some deviations in the accumulation and melt periods. The analysis showed relatively well inverse relation between the daily mean temperature and SAE during the melting period. Some important trends of snow fall are also observed. In particular, the decreasing trend in January and increasing trend in late winter and early spring may be interpreted as a signal of a possible seasonal shift. However, it requires more years of data to verify this conclusion.

A New Perspective on Increasing Activity of Extratropical Disturbances: Spatial and Temporal Trends of Wave Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, P. C.; Hsu, H. H.

2016-12-01

Changes in extratropical disturbance behavior could play an important role in climate dynamics and be responsible for a part of climate-related damage. However, robust observational evidence for long-term trends in the activity is still lacking, and understanding of how it is linked with climate phenomena is limited. In this study, we define an accumulated perturbation index (API) to quantify the variation in some scalar quantities of atmospheric disturbances. API measures the areas (e.g., % of total surface area of Earth) where a certain perturbation quantity exceeds the long-term mean value plus 0.5 standard deviations. This index reflects more realistically the ensemble impacts of a climate perturbation and/or trend (such as global warming and ENSO) on the extratropical disturbances, even though its impact on different regions might vary from year to year due to stochastic processes. API represents an integrated activity of extratropical disturbances at a given time relative to a long time span. API is calculated for the 5-day running mean and 10-30-day stream function fluctuations during DJF and JJA. The analysis reveals an increasing trend in API and variance of stream function, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The findings suggest that atmospheric extratropical disturbances have strengthened in widening areas during the past six decades, even though there might not be robust trends in wave activity at regional scales. Whether the observed trends in API are associated with certain climate patterns is under investigation. Impact of global warming is likely one of the major sources for the increasing activity. The future change in API under global warming scenarios will be further studied by analyzing the projection of the CMIP5 models.

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L.-L.; Chelton, D. B.

1985-01-01

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Temporal trend and nationwide utility for hysterectomies in Taiwan, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Yi; Huang, Kuo-How; Chang, Wen-Chun; Wu, Shiao-Chi

2016-10-01

This study investigates the nationwide utilization and temporal trend of hysterectomies in Taiwan. The present study used the National Health Insurance Research Database that included claims of nearly the entire population in Taiwan since the inception of the National Health Insurance program in 1995. We analyzed age-adjusted rates of hysterectomies in Taiwan from 1997 through to 2010 and compared with the rates in 16 countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. We also examined the utilization of various types of hysterectomies in Taiwan during this period. There was a cross-country variation in the age-standardized rate of hysterectomy: 105 per 100,000 females in Spain, 156 per 100,000 females in Taiwan, 179 per 100,000 females in 16 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, and 325 per 100,000 females in the United States in 2008. The trend of the age-standardized rate of hysterectomy in Taiwan declined from 222.3 per 100,000 women in 1998 to 145.2 per 100,000 women in 2010. The most common type of hysterectomy during this period was total abdominal hysterectomy (51.2%). Subtotal hysterectomies increased by 117% (r 2 =0.89; p<0.01), from 672 in 1997 to 1458 in 2010; however, total hysterectomies decreased by 3.5% (r 2 =0.43; p=0.01), from 20,966 in 1997 to 20,230 in 2010. Laparoscopically assisted procedures (laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy and laparoscopic hysterectomy) increased 4.98-fold (r 2 =0.23; p=0.09), from 1453 in 1997 to 8684 in 2010. By contrast, the proportion of conventional open hysterectomies (total abdominal hysterectomy, and subtotal or supracervical abdominal hysterectomy) decreased by 36.5% (r 2 =0.59; p<0.01), from 17,327 in 1997 to 10,994 in 2010. The proportion of vaginal hysterectomies decreased by 29.7% (r 2 =0.72; p<0.01), from 2858 in 1997 to 2010 in 2010. As in most Western countries, hysterectomy rates in Taiwan declined by year. There was a marked shift in the types of

10 Yr Spatial and Temporal Trends of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Southeastern US Estimated Using High-resolution Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, X.; Waller, L. A.; Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.; Liu, Y.

2013-01-01

Long-term PM2.5 exposure has been reported to be associated with various adverse health outcomes. However, most ground monitors are located in urban areas, leading to a potentially biased representation of the true regional PM2.5 levels. To facilitate epidemiological studies, accurate estimates of spatiotemporally continuous distribution of PM2.5 concentrations are essential. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used for PM2.5 concentration estimation due to its comprehensive spatial coverage. Nevertheless, an inherent disadvantage of current AOD products is their coarse spatial resolutions. For instance, the spatial resolutions of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) are 10 km and 17.6 km, respectively. In this paper, a new AOD product with 1 km spatial resolution retrieved by the multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm was used. A two-stage model was developed to account for both spatial and temporal variability in the PM2.5-AOD relationship by incorporating the MAIAC AOD, meteorological fields, and land use variables as predictors. Our study area is in the southeastern US, centered at the Atlanta Metro area, and data from 2001 to 2010 were collected from various sources. The model was fitted for each year individually, and we obtained model fitting R2 ranging from 0.71 to 0.85, MPE from 1.73 to 2.50 g m3, and RMSPE from 2.75 to 4.10 g m3. In addition, we found cross validation R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.78, MPE from 2.00 to 3.01 g m3, and RMSPE from 3.12 to 5.00 g m3, indicating a good agreement between the estimated and observed values. Spatial trends show that high PM2.5 levels occurred in urban areas and along major highways, while low concentrations appeared in rural or mountainous areas. A time series analysis was conducted to examine temporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area from 2001 to 2010. The results showed

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Spring (III)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of spring and its corresponding months (March, April, May) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal Tmax shows that global trend was positive and significant until the mid 80's with higher values than 75% from between 1954-2010 to 1979-2010, being reduced after to the north region. So, from 1985-2010 no significant trend have been detected. Monthly analyses show differences. March trend is not significant (<20% of area) since 1974-2010, while significant trend in April and May varies between 1961-2010/1979-2010 and 1965-2010/1980-2010 respectively, clearly located in northern midland and Mediterranean coastland. • Spring Tmin trend analyses is significantly (>20%) during all temporal windows, notwithstanding NW do not show global significant trend, and in the most recent temporal windows only affect significantly SE. Monthly analyses also differ. Not significant trend is detected in March from 1979-2010, and from 1985-2010 in May, being April the month in any temporal windows with more than 20% of land affected by significant trend. • Spatial differences are detected between windows (South-North in March, East-West in April-May. We can conclude Tmax trend varies accordingly temporal windows dramatically in spring and no significance has been detected in the recent decades. Northern areas and Mediterranean coastland seems to be the most affected. Monthy Tmax trend spatial analyses confirm the heterogeneity of diurnal temperatures; different spatial

Clustering XCO2 temporal change to assess CO2 exchanging strength of biosphere-atmosphere with GOSAT observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhonghua; Lei, Liping; Bie, Nian; Yang, Shaoyuan; Wu, Changjiang; Zeng, Zhao-Cheng

2017-04-01

The temporal change of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, greatly related to the local activities of CO2 uptake and emission, including biospheric exchange and anthropogenic emission, is one of important information for regions identification of carbon source and sink. Satellite observations of CO2 has been used for detecting the change of CO2 concentration for a long time. In this study, we used the grid data of column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2) with the spatial resolution of 1 degree and the temporal resolution of 3 days from 1 June 2009 to 31 May 2014 over the land area of 30° - 60° N to implement a clustering of temporal changing characteristics for the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) XCO2 retrievals. Grid data is derived using the gap filling method of spatio-temporal geostatistics. The clustering method is one adjusted K-mean for the gap existed time-series data. As a result, types and number of clusters are specified based on the temporal characteristic of XCO2 by using the optimal clustering parameters. The biospheric absorption and surface emission of atmospheric CO2 is discussed through the analysis of the different yearly increase and seasonal amplitude of XCO2 each cluster combined with correlation analysis with vegetation index from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and fossil fuel CO2 emission data from Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (Odiac). Regions of strong or weak biosphere-atmosphere exchange, or significant disturbance from anthropogenic activities can be identified. In conclusion, gap filled XCO2 from satellite observations can help us to take an analysis of atmospheric CO2, results of the coupled biosphere-atmosphere, by their spatio-temporal characteristics as well as the relationship with the other remote sensing parameters e.g. MODIS related with biospheric photosynthetic or respiration activities.

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will

Large-Scale Overlays and Trends: Visually Mining, Panning and Zooming the Observable Universe.

PubMed

Luciani, Timothy Basil; Cherinka, Brian; Oliphant, Daniel; Myers, Sean; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Labrinidis, Alexandros; Marai, G Elisabeta

2014-07-01

We introduce a web-based computing infrastructure to assist the visual integration, mining and interactive navigation of large-scale astronomy observations. Following an analysis of the application domain, we design a client-server architecture to fetch distributed image data and to partition local data into a spatial index structure that allows prefix-matching of spatial objects. In conjunction with hardware-accelerated pixel-based overlays and an online cross-registration pipeline, this approach allows the fetching, displaying, panning and zooming of gigabit panoramas of the sky in real time. To further facilitate the integration and mining of spatial and non-spatial data, we introduce interactive trend images-compact visual representations for identifying outlier objects and for studying trends within large collections of spatial objects of a given class. In a demonstration, images from three sky surveys (SDSS, FIRST and simulated LSST results) are cross-registered and integrated as overlays, allowing cross-spectrum analysis of astronomy observations. Trend images are interactively generated from catalog data and used to visually mine astronomy observations of similar type. The front-end of the infrastructure uses the web technologies WebGL and HTML5 to enable cross-platform, web-based functionality. Our approach attains interactive rendering framerates; its power and flexibility enables it to serve the needs of the astronomy community. Evaluation on three case studies, as well as feedback from domain experts emphasize the benefits of this visual approach to the observational astronomy field; and its potential benefits to large scale geospatial visualization in general.

Temporal Trends in Mortality from Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in Mexico, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Cruz, Copytzy; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Calleja-Castillo, Juan Manuel; Hernández-Álvarez, Anaid; Parra, María Del Socorro; Moreno-Macias, Hortensia; Hernández-Girón, Carlos

2017-04-01

Over the past decades, the decline in mortality from stroke has been more pronounced in high-income countries than in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated changes in temporal stroke mortality trends in Mexico according to sex and type of stroke. We assessed stroke mortality from Mexico's National Health Information System for the period from 1980 to 2012. We analyzed age-adjusted mortality rates by sex, type of stroke, and age group. The annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the slopes of the age-adjusted mortality trends were determined using joinpoint regression models. The age-adjusted mortality rates due to stroke decreased between 1980 and 2012, from 44.55 to 33.47 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the AAPC (95% confidence interval [CI]) was -.9 (-1.0 to -.7). The AAPC for females was -1.1 (-1.5 to -.7) and that for males was -.7 (-.9 to -.6). People older than 65 years showed the highest mortality throughout the period. Between 1980 and 2012, the AAPC (95% CI) for ischemic stroke was -3.8 (-4.8 to -2.8) and was -.5 (-.8 to -.2) for hemorrhagic stroke. For the same period, the AAPC for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) was -.7 (-1.6 to .2) and that for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) was 1.6 (.4-2.8). The age-adjusted mortality rates of all strokes combined, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and ICH, decreased between 1980 and 2012 in Mexico. However, the increase in SAH mortality makes it necessary to explore the risk factors and clinical management of this type of stroke. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004-2012.

PubMed

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10×10km satellite-based PM 2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM 2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in-migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal trends in algae, benthic invertebrate, and fish assemblages in streams and rivers draining basins of varying land use in the south-central United States, 1993-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Kennen, Jonathan G.; Mabe, Jeffrey A.; Mize, Scott V.

2012-01-01

Site-specific temporal trends in algae, benthic invertebrate, and fish assemblages were investigated in 15 streams and rivers draining basins of varying land use in the south-central United States from 1993–2007. A multivariate approach was used to identify sites with statistically significant trends in aquatic assemblages which were then tested for correlations with assemblage metrics and abiotic environmental variables (climate, water quality, streamflow, and physical habitat). Significant temporal trends in one or more of the aquatic assemblages were identified at more than half (eight of 15) of the streams in the study. Assemblage metrics and abiotic environmental variables found to be significantly correlated with aquatic assemblages differed between land use categories. For example, algal assemblages at undeveloped sites were associated with physical habitat, while algal assemblages at more anthropogenically altered sites (agricultural and urban) were associated with nutrient and streamflow metrics. In urban stream sites results indicate that streamflow metrics may act as important controls on water quality conditions, as represented by aquatic assemblage metrics. The site-specific identification of biotic trends and abiotic–biotic relations presented here will provide valuable information that can inform interpretation of continued monitoring data and the design of future studies. In addition, the subsets of abiotic variables identified as potentially important drivers of change in aquatic assemblages provide policy makers and resource managers with information that will assist in the design and implementation of monitoring programs aimed at the protection of aquatic resources.

Temporal and geographic trends in mercury concentrations in muscle tissue in five species of Hudson River, USA, fish.

PubMed

Levinton, Jeffrey S; Pochron, Sharon T

2008-08-01

We analyzed a New York (USA) state database of mercury concentrations in muscle tissue for five species of fish (striped bass, yellow perch, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass, and carp) over a range of locations in the Hudson River (USA) between 1970 and 2004. We used regression models to discern temporal and geographic change in the fish while controlling for a positive correlation between mercury concentration and body mass. Mercury concentrations significantly increased in fish from New York Harbor waters to the mid-Hudson River. Striped bass and yellow perch showed a shallower increase in mercury concentration with river mile than did carp, largemouth bass, and smallmouth bass. Mercury concentrations declined over the 34-year period. These results imply that a geographically restricted source of mercury may be spread throughout the watershed by toxin-laden dispersing species. The increase of mercury toward the north may relate to a point source in the mid-Hudson River, or it may indicate mercury released from the Adirondack watershed. The decline of mercury over three decades corresponds to a reduction of various inputs in the region. The temporal and geographic pattern of mercury in sediments corresponds to the geographic trend of mercury in fish.

Space Technology 5 Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Wang, Y.; Slavin, J. A.; Strangeway, R. L.

2009-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a constellation mission consisting of three microsatellites. It provides the first multipoint magnetic field measurements in low Earth orbit, which enables us to separate spatial and temporal variations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using the ST5 data. We examine the field-aligned current observations during and after a geomagnetic storm and compare the magnetic field profiles at the three spacecraft. The multipoint data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures, commonly embedded within large-scale current sheets, are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in approx.10 min time scales. On the other hand, the data also show that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx.1 min for mesoscale currents and approx.10 min for large-scale currents. These temporal features are very likely associated with dynamic variations of their charge carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of mesoscale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Trends in atmospheric evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Emma L.; Blyth, Eleanor M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Finch, Jon; Rudd, Alison C.

2017-02-01

Observations of climate are often available on very different spatial scales from observations of the natural environments and resources that are affected by climate change. In order to help bridge the gap between these scales using modelling, a new dataset of daily meteorological variables was created at 1 km resolution over Great Britain for the years 1961-2012, by interpolating coarser resolution climate data and including the effects of local topography. These variables were used to calculate atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) at the same spatial and temporal resolution. Two functions that represent AED were chosen: one is a standard form of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the other is a derived PET measure used by hydrologists that includes the effect of water intercepted by the canopy (PETI). Temporal trends in these functions were calculated, with PET found to be increasing in all regions, and at an overall rate of 0.021 ± 0.021 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain. PETI was found to be increasing at a rate of 0.019 ± 0.020 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain, but this was not statistically significant. However, there was a trend in PETI in England of 0.023 ± 0.023 mm day-1 decade-1. The trends were found to vary by season, with spring PET increasing by 0.043 ± 0.019 mm day-1 decade-1 (0.038 ± 0.018 mm day-1 decade-1 when the interception correction is included) in Great Britain, while there is no statistically significant trend in other seasons. The trends were attributed analytically to trends in the climate variables; the overall positive trend was predominantly driven by rising air temperature, although rising specific humidity had a negative effect on the trend. Recasting the analysis in terms of relative humidity revealed that the overall effect is that falling relative humidity causes the PET to rise. Increasing downward short- and longwave radiation made an overall positive contribution to the PET trend, while decreasing wind speed made a

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Vegetation Coverage and Analysis of it’s Future Trends in Wujiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Jianyong; Bai, Xiaoyong; Zhou, Dequan; Qian, Qinghuan; Zeng, Cheng; Chen, Fei

2018-01-01

Vegetation coverage dynamics is affected by climatic, topography and human activities, which is an important indicator reflecting the regional ecological environment. Revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage is of great significance to the protection and management of ecological environment. Based on MODIS NDVI data and the Maximum Value Composites (MVC), we excluded soil spectrum interference to calculate Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC). Then the long-term FVC was used to calculate the spatial pattern and temporal variation of vegetation in Wujiang River Basin from 2000 to 2016 by using Trend analysis and Hurst index. The relationship between topography and spatial distribution of FVC was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The multi-annual mean vegetation coverage reveals a spatial distribution variation characteristic of low value in midstream and high level in other parts of the basin, owing a mean value of 0.6567. (2) From 2000 to 2016, the FVC of the Wujiang River Basin fluctuated between 0.6110 and 0.7380, and the overall growth rate of FVC was 0.0074/a. (3) The area of vegetation coverage tending to improve is more than that going to degrade in the future. Grass land, Arable land and Others improved significantly; karst rocky desertification comprehensive management project lead to persistent vegetation coverage improvement of Grass land, Arable land and Others. Residential land is covered with obviously degraded vegetation, resulting of urban sprawl; (4) The spatial distribution of FVC is positively correlated with TNI. Researches of spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation coverage have significant meaning for the ecological environment protection and management of the Wujiang River Basin.

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Fazzio, Ila; Mann, Vera; Boone, Peter

2011-09-02

Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal

Spatial–temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007–13

PubMed Central

Achia, Thomas N.O.; Muttai, Hellen; Ng’ang’a, Lucy; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Ochanda, Boniface; Katana, Abraham; Tobias, James L.; Juma, Peter; De Cock, Kevin M.

2018-01-01

Introduction Using spatial–temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial–temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. Methods We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (<8 weeks after birth), age at specimen collection, infant ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial–temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Results Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5–5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p < 0.01. Uptake of testing ≤8 weeks after birth was under 50% in 2007 and increased to 64.1% by 2013, p < 0.01. By 2013, the overall standardized MTCT rate was 447 infections per 100,000 live births. Based on Bayesian deviance information criterion comparisons, the spatial–temporal model with maternal and infant covariates was best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Discussion Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetherbee, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Association of temporal trends in risk factors and treatment uptake with coronary heart disease mortality, 1994-2005.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Machado, Márcio; Farahati, Farah; Wang, Xuesong; Witteman, William; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Tu, Jack V; Lee, Douglas S; Goodman, Shaun G; Petrella, Robert; O'Flaherty, Martin; Krahn, Murray; Capewell, Simon

2010-05-12

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in Canada since 1994. To determine what proportion of this decline was associated with temporal trends in CHD risk factors and advancements in medical treatments. Prospective analytic study of the Ontario, Canada, population aged 25 to 84 years between 1994 and 2005, using an updated version of the validated IMPACT model, which integrates data on population size, CHD mortality, risk factors, and treatment uptake changes. Relative risks and regression coefficients from the published literature quantified the relationship between CHD mortality and (1) evidence-based therapies in 8 distinct CHD subpopulations (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], acute coronary syndromes, secondary prevention post-AMI, chronic coronary artery disease, heart failure in the hospital vs in the community, and primary prevention for hyperlipidemia or hypertension) and (2) population trends in 6 risk factors (smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, plasma cholesterol level, exercise, and obesity). The number of deaths prevented or delayed in 2005; secondary outcome measures were improvements in medical treatments and trends in risk factors. Between 1994 and 2005, the age-adjusted CHD mortality rate in Ontario decreased by 35% from 191 to 125 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, translating to an estimated 7585 fewer CHD deaths in 2005. Improvements in medical and surgical treatments were associated with 43% (range, 11% to 124%) of the total mortality decrease, most notably in AMI (8%; range, -5% to 40%), chronic stable coronary artery disease (17%; range, 7% to 35%), and heart failure occurring while in the community (10%; range, 6% to 31%). Trends in risk factors accounted for 3660 fewer CHD deaths prevented or delayed (48% of total; range, 28% to 64%), specifically, reductions in total cholesterol (23%; range, 10% to 33%) and systolic blood pressure (20%; range, 13% to 26%). Increasing diabetes prevalence and body

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferry, K.H.; Mather, Martha E.

2012-01-01

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

PubMed

Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

2015-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

Combined Multivariate Statistical Techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test Methods to Evaluate Temporal and Spatial Variations and Trends of Water Quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

2015-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages. PMID:25837673

Trend analysis of the aerosol optical depth from fusion of MISR and MODIS retrievals over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jing; Gu, Xingfa; Yu, Tao; Cheng, Tianhai; Chen, Hao

2014-03-01

Atmospheric aerosol plays an important role in the climate change though direct and indirect processes. In order to evaluate the effects of aerosols on climate, it is necessary to have a research on their spatial and temporal distributions. Satellite aerosol remote sensing is a developing technology that may provide good temporal sampling and superior spatial coverage to study aerosols. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) have provided aerosol observations since 2000, with large coverage and high accuracy. However, due to the complex surface, cloud contamination, and aerosol models used in the retrieving process, the uncertainties still exist in current satellite aerosol products. There are several observed differences in comparing the MISR and MODIS AOD data with the AERONET AOD. Combing multiple sensors could reduce uncertainties and improve observational accuracy. The validation results reveal that a better agreement between fusion AOD and AERONET AOD. The results confirm that the fusion AOD values are more accurate than single sensor. We have researched the trend analysis of the aerosol properties over China based on nine-year (2002-2010) fusion data. Compared with trend analysis in Jingjintang and Yangtze River Delta, the accuracy has increased by 5% and 3%, respectively. It is obvious that the increasing trend of the AOD occurred in Yangtze River Delta, where human activities may be the main source of the increasing AOD.

Temporal trends in hyperuricaemia in the Irish health system from 2006-2014: A cohort study.

PubMed

Kumar A U, Arun; Browne, Leonard D; Li, Xia; Adeeb, Fahd; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Fraser, Alexander D; Stack, Austin G

2018-01-01

Elevated serum uric acid (sUA) concentrations are common in the general population and are associated with chronic metabolic conditions and adverse clinical outcomes. We evaluated secular trends in the burden of hyperuricaemia from 2006-2014 within the Irish health system. Data from the National Kidney Disease Surveillance Programme was used to determine the prevalence of elevated sUA in adults, age > 18 years, within the Irish health system. Hyperuricaemia was defined as sUA > 416.4 μmol/L in men and > 339.06 μmol/L in women, and prevalence was calculated as the proportion of patients per year with mean sUA levels above sex-specific thresholds. Temporal trends in prevalence were compared from 2006 to 2014 while general estimating equations (GEE) explored variation across calendar years expressed as odds ratios (OR) and 95% Confidence intervals (CI). From 2006 to 2014, prevalence of hyperuricaemia increased from 19.7% to 25.0% in men and from 20.5% to 24.1% in women, P<0.001. The corresponding sUA concentrations increased significantly from 314.6 (93.9) in 2006 to 325.6 (96.2) in 2014, P<0.001. Age-specific prevalence increased in all groups from 2006 to 2014, and the magnitude of increase was similar for each age category. Adjusting for baseline demographic characteristics and illness indicators, the likelihood of hyperuricemia was greatest for patients in 2014; OR 1.45 (1.26-1.65) for men and OR 1.47 (1.29-1.67) in women vs 2006 (referent). Factors associated with hyperuricaemia included: worsening kidney function, elevated white cell count, raised serum phosphate and calcium levels, elevated total protein and higher haemoglobin concentrations, all P<0.001. The burden of hyperuricaemia is substantial in the Irish health system and has increased in frequency over the past decade. Advancing age, poorer kidney function, measures of nutrition and inflammation, and regional variation all contribute to increasing prevalence, but these do not fully explain emerging

Detecting potential anomalies in projections of rainfall trends and patterns using human observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, K. E.; Savo, V.; Sillmann, J.; Morton, C.; Lepofsky, D.

2016-12-01

Shifting precipitation patterns are a well-documented consequence of climate change, but their spatial variability is particularly difficult to assess. While the accuracy of global models has increased, specific regional changes in precipitation regimes are not well captured by these models. Typically, researchers who wish to detect trends and patterns in climatic variables, such as precipitation, use instrumental observations. In our study, we combined observations of rainfall by subsistence-oriented communities with several metrics of rainfall estimated from global instrumental records for comparable time periods (1955 - 2005). This comparison was aimed at identifying: 1) which rainfall metrics best match human observations of changes in precipitation; 2) areas where local communities observe changes not detected by global models. The collated observations ( 3800) made by subsistence-oriented communities covered 129 countries ( 1830 localities). For comparable time periods, we saw a substantial correspondence between instrumental records and human observations (66-77%) at the same locations, regardless of whether we considered trends in general rainfall, drought, or extreme rainfall. We observed a clustering of mismatches in two specific regions, possibly indicating some climatic phenomena not completely captured by the currently available global models. Many human observations also indicated an increased unpredictability in the start, end, duration, and continuity of the rainy seasons, all of which may hamper the performance of subsistence activities. We suggest that future instrumental metrics should capture this unpredictability of rainfall. This information would be important for thousands of subsistence-oriented communities in planning, coping, and adapting to climate change.

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: A multiscale joinpoint regression analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Conclusions Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes. PMID:22142274

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: a multiscale joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre; Xiao, Hong

2011-12-05

peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Temporal trends of in-hospital complications associated with catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation in the United States: An update from Nationwide Inpatient Sample database (2011-2014).

PubMed

Tripathi, Byomesh; Arora, Shilpkumar; Kumar, Varun; Abdelrahman, Mohamed; Lahewala, Sopan; Dave, Mihir; Shah, Mahek; Tan, Bryan; Savani, Sejal; Badheka, Apurva; Gopalan, Radha; Shantha, Ghanshyam Palamaner Subash; Viles-Gonzalez, Juan; Deshmukh, Abhishek

2018-05-01

Catheter ablation is widely accepted intervention for atrial fibrillation (AF) refractory to antiarrhythmic drugs, but limited data are available regarding contemporary trends in major complications and in-hospital mortality due to the procedure. This study was aimed at exploring the temporal trends of in-hospital mortality, major complications, and impact of hospital volume on frequency of AF ablation-related outcomes. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was utilized to identify the AF patients treated with catheter ablation. In-hospital death and common complications including vascular access complications, cardiac perforation and/or tamponade, pneumothorax, stroke, and transient ischemic attack, were identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) codes. In-hospital mortality rate of 0.15% and overall complication rate of 5.46% were noted among AF ablation recipients (n = 50,969). Significant increase in complications during study period (relative increase 56.37%, P-trend < 0.001) was observed. Cardiac (2.65%), vascular (1.33%), and neurological (1.05%) complications were most common. On multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR]; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]; P value), significant predictors of complications were female sex (OR = 1.40; CI = 1.17-1.68; P value < 0.001), high burden of comorbidity as indicated by Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2 (OR = 2.84; CI = 2.29-3.52; P value < 0.001), and low hospital volume (< 50 procedures). Our study noted a decline in AF ablation-related hospitalizations and complications associated with the procedure. These findings largely reflect shifting trends of outpatient performance of the procedure and increasing safety profile due to improved institutional expertise and catheter techniques. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Comparison of Observed and Simulated 1990 – 2010 U.S. Ozone Trends

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we analyze ozone concentrations from long-term (1990 – 2010) WRF-CMAQ simulations driven by year specific meteorology and emissions. These simulations allow us to compare observed and simulated ozone trends in order to evaluate the model’s ability to pr...

Sequential change detection and monitoring of temporal trends in random-effects meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dogo, Samson Henry; Clark, Allan; Kulinskaya, Elena

2017-06-01

Temporal changes in magnitude of effect sizes reported in many areas of research are a threat to the credibility of the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. Numerous sequential methods for meta-analysis have been proposed to detect changes and monitor trends in effect sizes so that meta-analysis can be updated when necessary and interpreted based on the time it was conducted. The difficulties of sequential meta-analysis under the random-effects model are caused by dependencies in increments introduced by the estimation of the heterogeneity parameter τ 2 . In this paper, we propose the use of a retrospective cumulative sum (CUSUM)-type test with bootstrap critical values. This method allows retrospective analysis of the past trajectory of cumulative effects in random-effects meta-analysis and its visualization on a chart similar to CUSUM chart. Simulation results show that the new method demonstrates good control of Type I error regardless of the number or size of the studies and the amount of heterogeneity. Application of the new method is illustrated on two examples of medical meta-analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; BiDr, Jun; KinneyDr, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10 × 10 km satellite-based PM2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing–Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in–migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. PMID:27745948

Auditory temporal processing in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

Lavasani, Azam Navaei; Mohammadkhani, Ghassem; Motamedi, Mahmoud; Karimi, Leyla Jalilvand; Jalaei, Shohreh; Shojaei, Fereshteh Sadat; Danesh, Ali; Azimi, Hadi

2016-07-01

Auditory temporal processing is the main feature of speech processing ability. Patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, despite their normal hearing sensitivity, may present speech recognition disorders. The present study was carried out to evaluate the auditory temporal processing in patients with unilateral TLE. The present study was carried out on 25 patients with epilepsy: 11 patients with right temporal lobe epilepsy and 14 with left temporal lobe epilepsy with a mean age of 31.1years and 18 control participants with a mean age of 29.4years. The two experimental and control groups were evaluated via gap-in-noise and duration pattern sequence tests. One-way ANOVA was run to analyze the data. The mean of the threshold of the GIN test in the control group was observed to be better than that in participants with LTLE and RTLE. Also, it was observed that the percentage of correct responses on the DPS test in the control group and in participants with RTLE was better than that in participants with LTLE. Patients with TLE have difficulties in temporal processing. Difficulties are more significant in patients with LTLE, likely because the left temporal lobe is specialized for the processing of temporal information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-Latitude Wintertime Urban Pollution: Particulate Matter Composition and Temporal Trends in Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, W. R.; Nattinger, K.; Hooper, M.

2017-12-01

High latitude cities often experience severe pollution episodes during wintertime exacerbated by thermal inversion trapping of pollutant emissions. Fairbanks, Alaska is an extreme example of this problem, currently being classified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a "serious" non-attainment area for fine particulate matter (PM2.5). For this reason, we have studied the chemical composition of PM2.5 at multiple EPA monitoring sites in the non-attainment area from 2006 to the present. The chemical composition is dominated by organic carbon with lesser amounts of black carbon and inorganic ionic species such as ammonium, sulfate, and nitrate. We find large spatial differences in composition and amount of PM2.5 that indicate a different mix of sources in residential areas as compared to the city center. Specifically, the difference in composition is consistent with increased wood smoke source in the residential areas. The extent to which organic matter could be secondary (formed through conversion of emitted gases) is also an area needing study. Ammonium sulfate is responsible for about a fifth to a quarter of the particles mass during the darkest months, possibly indicating a non-photochemical source of sulfate, but the chemical mechanism for this possible transformation is unclear. Therefore, we quantified the relationship between particulate sulfate concentrations and gas-phase sulfur dioxide concentrations along with particulate metals and inferred particulate acidity with the hopes that these data can assist in elucidation of the mechanism of particulate sulfate formation. We also analyze temporal trends in PM2.5 composition in an attempt to understand how the problem is changing over time and find most trends are small despite regulatory changes. Improving mechanistic understanding of particulate formation under cold and dark conditions could assist in reducing air-quality-related health effects.

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

Temporal and spatial trends of perfluorinated compounds in juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) along the East Coast of the United States.

PubMed

O'Connell, Steven G; Arendt, Michael; Segars, Al; Kimmel, Tricia; Braun-McNeill, Joanne; Avens, Larisa; Schroeder, Barbara; Ngai, Lily; Kucklick, John R; Keller, Jennifer M

2010-07-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) are globally distributed persistent environmental contaminants. This study provides temporal trends as well as large-scale spatial trends of PFC concentrations in threatened juvenile loggerhead sea turtles near or from Florida Bay (FL Bay), Cape Canaveral (FL), Charleston (SC), Core Sound (NC), and Chesapeake Bay (MD). PFCs were extracted from 163 plasma and serum samples using solid-phase extraction and quantified with LC-MS/MS. Concentrations of six compounds significantly varied by site, with MD or FL Bay turtles having the highest concentrations. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFC at all sites (range: 0.31 ng/g to 39.0 ng/g). FL Bay turtles, compared to other sites, accumulated a unique PFC pattern with a higher proportion of perfluorocarboxylates compared to PFOS. Furthermore, this study was the first to statistically correlate wildlife PFC concentrations with human population, used as a proxy for urbanization and sources of PFCs to the environment. Positive relationships were found in which human population accounted for 75 and 81% of the variance in turtle PFOS and perfluoroundecanoate (PFUnA) concentrations (p = 0.06 and 0.04), respectively. PFOS and perfluorononanoate (PFNA) significantly decreased from 2000-2008 in SC turtles annually by 20 and 11%, respectively (p temporal assessments as PFC regulations change, attempt to pinpoint specific sources and transport pathways in areas with unique PFC patterns, and assess turtle health at sites with higher PFC concentrations.

Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron

2016-03-01

Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.

[Incidence of peptic ulcer at the Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición "Salvador Zubirán": study of localization, associated factors and temporal trends].

PubMed

Bobadilla, J; Vargas-Vorácková, F; Gómez, A; Jesús Villalobos, J

1996-01-01

To know the frequency, trends and associated factors of peptic ulcer disease in our Institute. Peptic ulcer is an important disease; about 5-10% of the population can expect to develop this disease during lifetime. We reviewed 1,123 patients with peptic ulcer in five years. Sex, age, habits (tobacco and alcohol consumption), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, ulcer location and complications were analyzed. To evaluate temporal trends, our results were compared with previous studies made in our Institute. The male-female ratio was 1:1, with a mean age of 52.2 years. Forty percent of the patients had duodenal ulcer, 42% had gastric ulcer, and 19% had esophageal, anastomotic or multiple ulcers. The most common complication was bleeding, which occurred more frequently in gastric (37%) than duodenal ulcer (24%) (P < 0.005). Gastric ulcer occurred in older patients when compared to duodenal ulcer (P < 0.02). Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs consumption was more frequent in patients with gastric (14%) than duodenal ulcer (10%) (P < 0.04). The frequency of tobacco and alcohol consumption was higher in multiple ulcers. A tendency toward a decreased frequency of duodenal ulcer and increased frequency of gastric ulcer was observed in our Institute during the last 30 years. In the same period, bleeding has been the leading complication, suggesting a higher referral of complicated peptic ulcer.

Using bald eagles to track spatial (1999-2008) and temporal (1987-1992, 1999-2003, and 2004-2008) trends of contaminants in Michigan's aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Wierda, Michael R; Leith, Katherine F; Roe, Amy S; Grubb, Teryl G; Sikarskie, James G; Best, David A; Pittman, H Tyler; Fuentes, Latice; Simon, Kendall L; Bowerman, William

2016-08-01

The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is an extensively researched tertiary predator. Studies have delineated information about its life history and the influences of various stressors on its reproduction. Due to the bald eagle's position at the top of the food web, it is susceptible to biomagnification of xenobiotics. The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality implemented a program in 1999 to monitor persistent chemicals including polychlorinated biphenols (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDE). The objectives of the present study were to evaluate spatial and temporal trends of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides in nestling bald eagles of Michigan. The authors' study found that concentrations of PCBs and DDE were higher in Great Lakes areas with Lakes Michigan and Lake Huron having the highest concentrations of DDE and Lake Erie having the highest concentrations of PCBs. Temporally (1987-1992, 1999-2003, and 2004-2008) the present study found declines in PCB and DDE concentrations with a few exceptions. Continued monitoring of Michigan bald eagle populations is suggested for a couple of reasons. First, nestling blood contaminant levels are an appropriate method to monitor ecosystem contaminant levels. Second, from 1999 to 2008 PCB and DDE concentrations for 30% and 40%, respectively, of the nestling eagles sampled were above the no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for bald eagles. Lastly, with the continued development and deployment of new chemistries a continuous long term monitoring program is an invaluable resource. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1995-2002. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Tracking contaminants in seabirds of Arctic Canada: temporal and spatial insights.

PubMed

Mallory, Mark L; Braune, Birgit M

2012-07-01

Levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants and trace elements in seabirds breeding in the vast Canadian Arctic have been monitored since 1975. Data from this monitoring have indicated both spatial and temporal variation across the region, attributable in part to differences in species' diets, differences in regional deposition patterns, and unidirectional trends in contaminants reaching this area from emissions in temperate and tropical areas to the south. Seabird tissues have served as effective biomonitors to examine this variation, and national and international collaboration in this monitoring effort has promoted valuable synthetic assessments of spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic contaminants. Here we review the history of the monitoring program, the critical role played by Environment Canada's National Wildlife Specimen Bank, and we summarize important spatial and temporal trends in various contaminants in Canadian Arctic seabirds. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal evapotranspiration trends after wildfire in semi-arid landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, Patrick K.; Kinoshita, Alicia M.

2018-04-01

In recent years climate change and other anthropogenic factors have contributed to increased wildfire frequency and size in western United States forests. This research focuses on the evaluation of spatial and temporal changes in evapotranspiration (ET) following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico (USA) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop ET). Evapotranspiration is coupled with soil burn severity and analyzed for 16 watersheds for water years 2001-2014. An average annual decrease of 120 mm of ET is observed within the regions affected by the Las Conchas Fire, and conifers were converted to grassland a year after the fire. On average, the post-fire annual ET in high, moderate, and low burn severity is lower than pre-fire ET by approximately 103-352 mm, 97-304 mm, and 91-268 mm, respectively. The ratio of post-fire evapotranspiration to precipitation (ET/P) is statistically different from pre-fire conditions (α = 0.05) in nine of the watersheds. The largest decrease in ET is approximately 13-57 mm per month and is most prominent during the summer (April to September). The observed decrease in ET contributes to our understanding of changes in water yield following wildfires, which is of interest for accurately modeling and predicting hydrologic processes in semi-arid landscapes.

Temporal trends in health-related quality of life after stroke: analysis from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

PubMed

Sheldenkar, Anita; Crichton, Siobhan; Douiri, Abdel; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A; Chen, Ruoling

2014-08-01

Survival after stroke has dramatically increased in the last two decades as the treatment of stroke has improved. However, time-trend analyses of health-related quality of life in stroke patients covering this time period are still not well investigated. The study aims to examine temporal trends in mental and physical health-related quality of life of stroke survivors between the period of 1995 and 2011. First in a lifetime strokes were registered in the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2011. Using the Short Form-12 Health Survey, trends in self-reported health-related quality of life at one-year after stroke were assessed over a 17-year period using linear regression, adjusting for socio-demographics, risk factors, and case-mix variables. Analyses stratifying by age, gender, race-ethnicity, and functional impairment were also performed. The overall trends of mental and physical health-related quality of life scores at one-year after stroke remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2011. However, mental health-related quality of life scores significantly improved between the period of 1995-2007 [β = 0·94 (95% CI; 0·15 to 1·74), P = 0·02], after which scores deteriorated [β = -2·02 (-3·82 to -0·22), P = 0·03]. Physical health-related quality of life scores remained stable until 2007, after which scores declined [β = -1·63 (-3·25 to -0·01), P = 0·05]. Despite declining health-related quality of life trends within the general population, stroke survivors' overall health-related quality of life remained unchanged, possibly due to lower expectations of health among stroke survivors. However, in recent years there has been a significant unexplained decline in both physical and mental health-related quality of life, suggesting that despite stroke policy aims to improve health-related quality of life, more needs to be done to target this decline. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World

Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alory, Gaël; Wijffels, Susan; Meyers, Gary

2007-01-01

The linear trends in oceanic temperature from 1960 to 1999 are estimated using the new Indian Ocean Thermal Archive (IOTA), a compilation of historical temperature profiles. Widespread surface warming is found, as in other data sets, and reproduced in IPCC climate model simulations for the 20th century. This warming is particularly large in the subtropics, and extends down to 800 m around 40-50°S. Models suggest the deep-reaching subtropical warming is related to a 0.5° southward shift of the subtropical gyre driven by a strengthening of the westerly winds, and associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode index. In the tropics, IOTA shows a subsurface cooling corresponding to a shoaling of the thermocline and increasing vertical stratification. Most models suggest this trend in the tropical Indian thermocline is likely associated with the observed weakening of the Pacific trade winds and transmitted to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian throughflow.

Assessment of Precipitation Trends over Europe by Comparing ERA-20C with a New Homogenized Observational GPCC Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.

2015-12-01

Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Mortality experience of Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia: regional variation and temporal trends.

PubMed

Gurven, Michael; Kaplan, Hillard; Supa, Alfredo Zelada

2007-01-01

This paper examines regional and temporal trends in mortality patterns among the Tsimane, a population of small-scale forager-horticulturalists in lowland Bolivia. We compare age-specific mortality in remote forest and riverine regions with that in more acculturated villages and examine mortality changes among all age groups over the past 50 years. Discrete-time logistic regression is used to examine impacts of region, period, sex, and age on mortality hazard. Villages in the remote forest and riverine regions show 2-4 times higher mortality rates from infancy until middle adulthood than in the acculturated region. While there was little change in mortality for most of the life course over the period 1950-1989, overall life expectancy at birth improved by 10 years from 45 to 53 after 1990. In both periods, over half of all deaths were due to infectious disease, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. Accidents and violence accounted for a quarter of all deaths. Unlike typical patterns described by epidemiologic transition theory, we find a much larger period reduction of death rates during middle and late adulthood than during infancy or childhood. In the remote villages, infant death rates changed little, whereas death rates among older adults decreased sharply. We hypothesize that this pattern is due to a combination of differential access to medical interventions, a continued lack of public health infrastructure and Tsimane cultural beliefs concerning sickness and dying. Copyright 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Temporal trends in adolescents’ self-reported psychosomatic health complaints from 1980-2016: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Potrebny, Thomas; Wiium, Nora; Lundegård, Margrethe Moss-Iversen

2017-01-01

Objective There is increasing concern that mental health may be deteriorating in recent generations of adolescents. It is unclear whether this is the case for self-reported psychosomatic health complaints (PSHC). Method We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published primary studies on PSHC in the general adolescent population over time. The primary databases were MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO, which were searched from inception to November 2016. Studies were included if they involved an observational design, presented self-reported data from participants aged 10–19 years and included data from at least two time points, five years apart. Inclusion and study quality were assessed by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-one studies were included; 18 reported trends on the prevalence of PSHC in a single country, while three studies reported on multiple countries. In total, over seven million adolescents from 36 countries in Europe, North America, Israel and New Zealand were represented, covering the period 1982–2013. In the descriptive analysis, 10 studies indicated a trend of increasing PSHC, eight showed a stable trend and three showed a decreasing trend at certain points in time. The results from the meta-analysis showed a mean odds ratio (OR) of 1.04 (K = 139, 95% CI 1.01–1.08) for PSHC from 1982 to 2013, thus indicating a minor increase in general. In the subgroup analysis, this minor increase was observed mainly between the 1980s and 2000s, while the trend appeared to be more stable between the 2000s and 2010s. Some differences were also found between multinational subregions. Findings from subgroup analysis, however, only supported a significant increasing trend in Northern Europe. Conclusion There may have been a minor increasing trend in adolescent self-rated PSHC between the 1980 and 2000s, but has become more stable since the 2010s, from a multinational perspective. Northern Europe was the only region to show a clearly significant

Dynamic factor analysis of long-term growth trends of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Lin, Hsing-Juh

2010-01-01

We examined environmental factors which are most responsible for the 8-year temporal dynamics of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was applied to identify common trends in a multivariate time series and the relationships between this series and interacting environmental variables. The results of dynamic factor models (DFMs) showed that the leaf growth rate of the seagrass was mainly influenced by salinity (Sal), tidal range (TR), turbidity ( K), and a common trend representing an unexplained variability in the observed time series. Sal was the primary variable that explained the temporal dynamics of the leaf growth rate compared to TR and K. K and TR had larger influences on the leaf growth rate in low- than in high-elevation beds. In addition to K, TR, and Sal, UV-B radiation (UV-B), sediment depth (SD), and a common trend accounted for long-term temporal variations of the above-ground biomass. Thus, K, TR, Sal, UV-B, and SD are the predominant environmental variables that described temporal growth variations of the intertidal seagrass T. hemprichii in southern Taiwan. In addition to environmental variables, human activities may be contributing to negative impacts on the seagrass beds; this human interference may have been responsible for the unexplained common trend in the DFMs. Due to successfully applying the DFA to analyze complicated ecological and environmental data in this study, important environmental variables and impacts of human activities along the coast should be taken into account when managing a coastal environment for the conservation of intertidal seagrass beds.

Observations of resistance through minimum inhibitory concentrations trends for respiratory specimens of commonly isolated organisms.

PubMed

Gillard, Christopher J; Al-Dahir, Sara; Brakta, Fatima

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) trends among common bacterial organisms found in respiratory isolates in the trauma intensive care unit setting. In this retrospective observational study, MIC data was reviewed over a three year period from January 2009 to December 2011 for the three most frequently identified organisms isolated from respiratory specimens in a trauma intensive care unit along with corresponding hospital data. The most frequently isolated bacterial species identified were Staphylococcus aureus (229 isolates), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (129 isolates), and Acinetobacter species (87 isolates) in the analysis within our institution from 2009-2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for the analyzed organisms. For Pseudomonas isolates, observed sensitivities were as high as 100% for antibiotics ciprofloxacin and imipenem in 2009, but decreased over the next two years in 2010 and 2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for Acinetobacter over the three year period for the antibiotics tested. The MIC data for most Staphylococcus aureus isolates over the three years were sensitive to vancomycin with little change in the observed MIC data. The data reported is observational and indicates the need for future studies to establish a valid relationship of the MIC data over time in our institution particularly among our gram negative organisms, to monitor patterns of antimicrobial resistance. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

The cerebellum predicts the temporal consequences of observed motor acts.

PubMed

Avanzino, Laura; Bove, Marco; Pelosin, Elisa; Ogliastro, Carla; Lagravinese, Giovanna; Martino, Davide

2015-01-01

It is increasingly clear that we extract patterns of temporal regularity between events to optimize information processing. The ability to extract temporal patterns and regularity of events is referred as temporal expectation. Temporal expectation activates the same cerebral network usually engaged in action selection, comprising cerebellum. However, it is unclear whether the cerebellum is directly involved in temporal expectation, when timing information is processed to make predictions on the outcome of a motor act. Healthy volunteers received one session of either active (inhibitory, 1 Hz) or sham repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation covering the right lateral cerebellum prior the execution of a temporal expectation task. Subjects were asked to predict the end of a visually perceived human body motion (right hand handwriting) and of an inanimate object motion (a moving circle reaching a target). Videos representing movements were shown in full; the actual tasks consisted of watching the same videos, but interrupted after a variable interval from its onset by a dark interval of variable duration. During the 'dark' interval, subjects were asked to indicate when the movement represented in the video reached its end by clicking on the spacebar of the keyboard. Performance on the timing task was analyzed measuring the absolute value of timing error, the coefficient of variability and the percentage of anticipation responses. The active group exhibited greater absolute timing error compared with the sham group only in the human body motion task. Our findings suggest that the cerebellum is engaged in cognitive and perceptual domains that are strictly connected to motor control.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

Trends and determinants of discretionary salt use: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2012

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to examine the recent temporal trends and current determinants of discretionary salt use in the United States. We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003-2012. We used multiple logistic regression to assess temporal trends ...

Spatial and temporal relations in conditioned reinforcement and observing behavior

PubMed Central

Bowe, Craig A.; Dinsmoor, James A.

1983-01-01

In Experiment 1, depressing one perch produced stimuli indicating which of two keys, if pecked, could produce food (spatial information) and depressing the other perch produced stimuli indicating whether a variable-interval or an extinction schedule was operating (temporal information). The pigeons increased the time they spent depressing the perch that produced the temporal information but did not increase the time they spent depressing the perch that produced the spatial information. In Experiment 2, pigeons that were allowed to produce combined spatial and temporal information did not acquire the perch pressing any faster or maintain it at a higher level than pigeons allowed to produce only temporal information. Later, when perching produced only spatial information, the time spent depressing the perch eventually declined. The results are not those implied by the statement that information concerning biologically important events is reinforcing but are consistent with an interpretation in terms of the acquisition of reinforcing properties by a stimulus associated with a higher density of primary reinforcement. PMID:16812316

Origin of temporal compositional trends in monogenetic vent eruptions: Insights from the crystal cargo in the Papoose Canyon sequence, Big Pine Volcanic Field, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ruohan; Lassiter, John C.; Ramirez, Gabrielle

2017-01-01

xenoliths crystallized at ∼5-7 kbar, corresponding to mid-crust depths. Correlations between HFSE depletion and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions, high δ18 O values in olivines, and radiogenic Os isotopic compositions in whole rocks also suggest incorporation of a crustally contaminated component. We propose that the phenocrysts and ultramafic xenoliths derive from melts that ponded and fractionated and assimilated continental crust, possibly in mid-crustal sills. These melts were drained and mixed with more primitive melts as the eruption began, and the temporal-compositional trends and decreasing crystal phase abundances reflect gradual deflation and exhaustion of these sills as the eruption progressed. The isotopic variations in the PC sequence span much of the compositional range observed in the BPVF. Evidence for variable crustal contamination of PC basalts suggests that much of the isotopic variation observed in the BPVF may also reflect crustal contamination rather than mantle source heterogeneity as previously proposed. In addition, evidence of pre-eruptive magma ponding and fractionation, if applicable to other monogenetic vents, may have significant implications for monitoring and hazard assessment of monogenetic volcano fields.

Temporal Ventriloquism in a Purely Temporal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartcher-O'Brien, Jessica; Alais, David

2011-01-01

This study examines how audiovisual signals are combined in time for a temporal analogue of the ventriloquist effect in a purely temporal context, that is, no spatial grounding of signals or other spatial facilitation. Observers were presented with two successive intervals, each defined by a 1250-ms tone, and indicated in which interval a brief…

Spatial and temporal trends in short-chain chlorinated paraffins in Lake Ontario sediments.

PubMed

Marvin, C H; Painter, S; Tomy, G T; Stern, G A; Braekevelt, E; Muir, D C G

2003-10-15

Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (polychlorinated-[C10-C13]-n-alkanes) were measured in Lake Ontario sediments collected during a lake-wide survey to characterize spatial and temporal trends in contamination. The Lake Ontario average SCCP sediment concentration was 49 ng/g (dry wt), which was somewhat higher than the lake-wide average for sigmaDDT (32 ng/g). Individual stations in each of the depositional basins exhibited the highest concentrations, ranging from 147 ng/g (dry wt) to 410 ng/g at an index station in the Niagara (western) basin. Relative average contributions of the carbon chain groups to total SCCPs on a lake-wide basis were as follows: sigmaC10 = 24%, sigmaC11 = 35%, sigmaC12 = 34%, sigmaC13 = 6.6%. Assessment of core profiles and estimates of SCCP fluxes indicated that an area of the western end of Lake Ontario is heavily impacted (SCCP flux of 170 microg/m2 yr) and potentially influenced by local industrial sources of SCCPs. Maximum accumulation of SCCPs in this area of the western basin occurred in the mid-1970s. In contrast, SCCP concentrations in a core from a site in the central area of the lake (SCCP flux of 8.0 microg/m2 yr) were more similar to levels characteristic of remote locations primarily impacted by atmospheric sources.

Spatial and temporal analyses of metrics of tuberculosis infection in badgers (Meles meles) from the Republic of Ireland: Trends in apparent prevalence.

PubMed

Byrne, A W; Kenny, K; Fogarty, U; O'Keeffe, J J; More, S J; McGrath, G; Teeling, M; Martin, S W; Dohoo, I R

2015-12-01

Badgers are a wildlife host of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), and an important contributor to the epidemiology of bTB in cattle in Ireland and Britain. Repeated culling of badgers in high prevalence cattle bTB areas has been used in the Republic of Ireland as one tool to reduce intra- and interspecific transmission of M. bovis. We assessed factors that influenced infection prevalence of culled badgers from 2009 to 2012 (n=4948) where spatial, temporal and intrinsic factor data were available using multivariable modelling. Prevalence appeared higher in western areas than eastern areas of Ireland and badgers were more likely to be test-positive if caught at a sett (burrow system) which was close to other infected setts (spatial clustering of infection). There was a significant positive association between badger test-status and cattle prevalence of M. bovis infection at a spatial scale of 1km around setts. Badgers were more likely to be deemed test positive if they were male (OR: 1.9) or a parous female (OR: 1.7), compared to a female who had never conceived. Our results are consistent with different groups within badger populations having differential exposures and therefore infection risk (for example, parous vs. non-parous females). Furthermore, bTB clusters within the badger population, with greater risk to badgers in setts that are closest to other infected setts. The effective scale of the association of bTB risk between badger and cattle populations may be relatively large in Ireland. Our data indicate that the overall trend in prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers has decreased in Ireland (P<0.001) while controlling for significant confounders over the study period, and follows a longer temporal trend from 2007 to 2013, where unadjusted apparent prevalence declined from 26% to 11% during 2007 to mid-2011, followed by a stable trend between 9 and 11% thereafter (n=10,267). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights

Spatial-temporal trend and health implications of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in resident oysters, South China Sea: A case study of Eastern Guangdong coast.

PubMed

Yu, Zi-Ling; Lin, Qin; Gu, Yang-Guang; Ke, Chang-Liang; Sun, Run-Xia

2016-09-15

Spatial and temporal distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated in Eastern Guangdong coast, China. Total PAH concentrations in oysters ranged from 231 to 1178ng/g with a mean concentration of 622ng/g dry weight. Compared with other bays and estuaries, PAH levels in oysters were moderate. Spatial distribution of PAHs was site specific, with relatively high PAH concentrations observed in Zhelin Bay and Kaozhouyang Bay. Based on the Spearman test analysis, only PAH concentration in oysters from Jiazi Harbor showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.05). Three-ring PAHs were the most abundant, accounting for 54.2%-88.4% of total PAHs. Diagnostic ratios suggested that PAHs were derived mainly from petroleum origin. BaP and ∑4PAH concentrations were well within the European Union limits (5ng/g and 30ng/g wet weight, respectively). The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) for PAHs were <10(-5), indicating that the adverse health risks associated with oyster consumption in this area were minimal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Temporal trends of preservative allergy in Denmark (1985-2008).

PubMed

Thyssen, Jacob P; Engkilde, Kåre; Lundov, Michael D; Carlsen, Berit C; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne D

2010-02-01

Most cosmetics and industrial products contain preservatives. Preservative allergy is common and, historically, changing contact allergy epidemics caused by preservatives have been observed. In 1997, Alan Dillarstone predicted a stable development of preservative allergy following mandatory ingredient labelling on cosmetic products. To investigate the development in the prevalence of preservative allergy in Denmark over a 24-year period (1985-2008) and to challenge the prediction made by Dillarstone. A retrospective analysis of patch test data was performed (n = 18179). Comparisons were made using a chi(2) test. Logistic regression analyses were used to test for associations. The development of preservative allergy mirrored those of other European patch test centres. The development was not dependent on sex or age group. The prevalence was higher among women and those aged 41-60 years. Formaldehyde allergy was persistently prevalent over the study years. The overall prevalence of preservative allergy increased significantly (P(trend) = 0.001), mainly because of patch testing with additional preservatives in recent years. Dillarstone's prediction was confirmed as the prevalence of contact allergy to individual preservatives remained relatively stable. However, the overall burden of preservative allergy seemed to increase. Introduction of new preservatives may add to the burden of contact allergy.

The Many Hazards of Trend Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Zhang, X.; Kimball, J. S.; Small, C.

2014-12-01

Given the awareness in the scientific community of global scale drivers such as population growth, globalization, and climatic variation and change, many studies seek to identify temporal patterns in data that may be plausibly related to one or more aspect of global change. Here we explore two questions: "What constitutes a trend in a time series?" and "How can a trend be misinterpreted?" There are manifold hazards—both methodological and psychological—in detecting a trend, quantifying its magnitude, assessing its significance, identifying probable causes, and evaluating the implications of the trend. These hazards can combine to elevate the risk of misinterpreting the trend. In contrast, evaluation of multiple trends within a biogeophysical framework can attenuate the risk of misinterpretation. We review and illustrate these hazards and demonstrate the efficacy of an approach using multiple indicators detecting significant trends (MIDST) applied to time series of remote sensing data products.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Surface Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived from Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Mark; Rowe, Clinton; Kuivinen, Karl; Mote, Thomas

1996-01-01

The primary goals of this research were to identify and begin to comprehend the spatial and temporal variations in surface characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet using passive microwave observations, physically-based models of the snowpack and field observations of snowpack and firn properties.

Temporal Non-locality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filk, Thomas

2013-04-01

In this article I investigate several possibilities to define the concept of "temporal non-locality" within the standard framework of quantum theory. In particular, I analyze the notions of "temporally non-local states", "temporally non-local events" and "temporally non-local observables". The idea of temporally non-local events is already inherent in the standard formalism of quantum mechanics, and Basil Hiley recently defined an operator in order to measure the degree of such a temporal non-locality. The concept of temporally non-local states enters as soon as "clock-representing states" are introduced in the context of special and general relativity. It is discussed in which way temporally non-local measurements may find an interesting application for experiments which test temporal versions of Bell inequalities.

Recent Advances on INSAR Temporal Decorrelation: Theory and Observations Using UAVSAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavalle, M.; Hensley, S.; Simard, M.

2011-01-01

We review our recent advances in understanding the role of temporal decorrelation in SAR interferometry and polarimetric SAR interferometry. We developed a physical model of temporal decorrelation based on Gaussian-statistic motion that varies along the vertical direction in forest canopies. Temporal decorrelation depends on structural parameters such as forest height, is sensitive to polarization and affects coherence amplitude and phase. A model of temporal-volume decorrelation valid for arbitrary spatial baseline is discussed. We tested the inversion of this model to estimate forest height from model simulations supported by JPL/UAVSAR data and lidar LVIS data. We found a general good agreement between forest height estimated from radar data and forest height estimated from lidar data.

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Loyola, Diego

2018-01-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Temporal trends in mammal responses to fire reveals the complex effects of fire regime attributes.

PubMed

Lindenmayer, David B; Blanchard, Wade; MacGregor, Christopher; Barton, Philip; Banks, Sam C; Crane, Mason; Michael, Damian; Okada, Sachiko; Berry, Laurence; Florance, Daniel; Gill, Malcolm

2016-03-01

Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Parametric spectro-temporal analyzer (PASTA) for real-time optical spectrum observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Xu, Jianbing; Chui, P. C.; Wong, Kenneth K. Y.

2013-06-01

Real-time optical spectrum analysis is an essential tool in observing ultrafast phenomena, such as the dynamic monitoring of spectrum evolution. However, conventional method such as optical spectrum analyzers disperse the spectrum in space and allocate it in time sequence by mechanical rotation of a grating, so are incapable of operating at high speed. A more recent method all-optically stretches the spectrum in time domain, but is limited by the allowable input condition. In view of these constraints, here we present a real-time spectrum analyzer called parametric spectro-temporal analyzer (PASTA), which is based on the time-lens focusing mechanism. It achieves a frame rate as high as 100 MHz and accommodates various input conditions. As a proof of concept and also for the first time, we verify its applications in observing the dynamic spectrum of a Fourier domain mode-locked laser, and the spectrum evolution of a laser cavity during its stabilizing process.

Current trends in Natural Gas Flaring Observed from Space with VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhizhin, M. N.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2017-12-01

The five-year survey of natural gas flaring in 2012-2016 has been completed with nighttime Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. The survey identifies flaring site locations, annual duty cycle, and provides an estimate of the flared gas volumes in methane equivalents. VIIRS is particularly well-.suited for detecting and measuring the radiant emissions from gas flares through the collection of shortwave and near-infrared data at night, recording the peak radiant emissions from flares. The total flared gas volume is estimated at 140 +/-30 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year, corresponding to 3.5% of global natural gas production. While Russia leads in terms of flared gas volume (>20 BCM), the U.S. has the largest number of flares (8,199 of 19,057 worldwide). The two countries have opposite trends in flaring: while for the U.S. the peak was reached in 2015, for Russia it was the minimum. On the regional scale in the U.S., Texas has the maximum number of flares (3749), with North Dakota, the second highest, having one half of this number (2,003). The number of flares for most of the states has decreased in the last 3 years following the trend in oil prices. The presentation will compare the global estimates, and regional trends observed in the U.S. regions. Preliminary estimates for global gas flaring in 2017 will be presented

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jongeward, Andrew R.; Li, Zhanqing; He, Hao; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2016-01-01

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Trends in Condom Use and Risk Behaviours after Sexual Exposure to HIV: A Seven-Year Observational Study

PubMed Central

Casalino, Enrique; Choquet, Christophe; Leleu, Agathe; Hellmann, Romain; Wargon, Mathias; Juillien, Gaelle; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Bouvet, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine the trends in numbers and percentages of sexually exposed persons to HIV (SE) consulting an ED for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), as well as predictors of condom use. Study Design We conducted a prospective-observational study. Methods We included all SE attendances in our Emergency Department (ED) during a seven-year study-period (2006–2012). Trends were analyzed using time-series analysis. Logistic Regression was used to define indicators of condom use. Results We enrolled 1851 SE: 45.7% reported intercourse without condom-use and 12.2% with an HIV-infected partner. Significant (p<0.01) rising trends were observed in the overall number of SE visits (+75%), notably among men having sex with men (MSM) (+126%). There were rising trends in the number and percentage of those reporting intercourse without condom-use in the entire population +91% (p<0.001) and +1% (p>0.05), in MSM +228% (p<0.001) and +49% (p<0.001), in Heterosexuals +68% (p<0.001) and +10% (p = 0.08). Among MSM, significant rising trends were found in those reporting high-risk behaviours: anal receptive (+450% and +76%) and anal insertive (+l33% and +70%) intercourses. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, heterosexuals, vaginal intercourse, visit during the night-shift and short time delay between SE and ED visit, were significantly associated with condom-use. Conclusion We report an increasing trend in the number of SE, mainly among MSM, and rising trends in high-risk behaviours and unprotected sexual intercourses among MSM. Our results indicate that SE should be considered as a high-risk population for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:25157477

Chronic lung disease and multiple sclerosis: Incidence, prevalence, and temporal trends.

PubMed

Marrie, Ruth Ann; Patten, Scott; Tremlett, Helen; Svenson, Lawrence W; Wolfson, Christina; Yu, B Nancy; Elliott, Lawrence; Profetto-McGrath, Joanne; Warren, Sharon; Leung, Stella; Jette, Nathalie; Bhan, Virender; Fisk, John D

2016-07-01