Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Detecting potential anomalies in projections of rainfall trends and patterns using human observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, K. E.; Savo, V.; Sillmann, J.; Morton, C.; Lepofsky, D.

2016-12-01

Shifting precipitation patterns are a well-documented consequence of climate change, but their spatial variability is particularly difficult to assess. While the accuracy of global models has increased, specific regional changes in precipitation regimes are not well captured by these models. Typically, researchers who wish to detect trends and patterns in climatic variables, such as precipitation, use instrumental observations. In our study, we combined observations of rainfall by subsistence-oriented communities with several metrics of rainfall estimated from global instrumental records for comparable time periods (1955 - 2005). This comparison was aimed at identifying: 1) which rainfall metrics best match human observations of changes in precipitation; 2) areas where local communities observe changes not detected by global models. The collated observations ( 3800) made by subsistence-oriented communities covered 129 countries ( 1830 localities). For comparable time periods, we saw a substantial correspondence between instrumental records and human observations (66-77%) at the same locations, regardless of whether we considered trends in general rainfall, drought, or extreme rainfall. We observed a clustering of mismatches in two specific regions, possibly indicating some climatic phenomena not completely captured by the currently available global models. Many human observations also indicated an increased unpredictability in the start, end, duration, and continuity of the rainy seasons, all of which may hamper the performance of subsistence activities. We suggest that future instrumental metrics should capture this unpredictability of rainfall. This information would be important for thousands of subsistence-oriented communities in planning, coping, and adapting to climate change.

Lecture 3: Some Suggestions and Remarks upon Observing Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montessori, Maria

2016-01-01

These next two lectures succinctly discuss the necessary preparation and methods for observation. Using the naturalist Fabre as an example of scientific training of the faculties for sharp observation, Montessori compares the observer to a researcher and gives many suggestions for conducting thorough yet unobtrusive observation. Self-awareness of…

An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

2017-07-01

A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gender Differences in Expressed Interests in Engineering-Related Fields ACT 30-Year Data Analysis Identified Trends and Suggested Avenues to Reverse Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iskander, E. Tiffany; Gore, Paul A., Jr.; Furse, Cynthia; Bergerson, Amy

2013-01-01

Historically, women have been underrepresented in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) fields both as college majors and in the professional community. This disturbing trend, observed in many countries, is more serious and evident in American universities and is reflected in the U.S. workforce statistics. In this article, we…

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.

PubMed

Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L

2014-07-01

Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

2018-01-01

Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing.

PubMed

Kunz, A; Müller, R; Homonnai, V; Jánosi, I M; Hurst, D; Rap, A; Forster, P M; Rohrer, F; Spelten, N; Riese, M

2013-10-16

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N, 105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TP z > 14 km), extratropical (TP z < 12 km), and transitional air mass types (12 km < TP z < 14 km) reveal three different water vapor reservoirs. The analysis based on these concepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

origins. Our calculations indicate that about half of the median trends at EANET stations are significant, derived either for the entire observational period or for a given season, however not for the same species. The proportions of decreasing and increasing trends are comparable. The latter is the case for SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for Russia), while marked decrease in K+ abundances is prevailing at all stations. Most unsystematic trends are seen for nitrogenated compounds, particularly HNO3, which calls for deeper data quality analysis. Interestingly, about the same statistic (half of significant trends) is obtained for the upper (0.9) quantile of the dataset, suggesting that trends pertain to the upper part of the data distribution usually linked to emission dynamics (i.e. bearing winter/spring compositions). We further apply an ad hoc cluster analysis to infer spatial patterns and colocation of the trends across the East Asian region. Finally, we provide a brief comparison of results with an evaluation of changes in major acidic compounds over EMEP region for the 1990-2012 provided by EMEP in its trend assessment for the UN ECE CLRTAP earlier this year [2]. References: 1. EANET: Data Report 2014. Network Center for EANET (ACAP), November 2015, 314 p. (http://www.eanet.asia/product/datarep/datarep14/datarep14.pdf) 2. EMEP: Air Pollution Trends in the EMEP region between 1990 and 2012. WMO/EMEP TFMM Trend Assessment Report. UN ECE Convention on LRTAP, 2016, 54 p.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-08-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-01-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

Climatological assessment of spatiotemporal trends in observational monthly snowfall totals and extremes over the Canadian Great Lakes Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baijnath, Janine; Duguay, Claude; Sushama, Laxmi; Huziy, Oleksandr

2017-04-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB) is susceptible to snowfall events that derive from extratropical cyclones and heavy lake effect snowfall (HLES). The former is generated by quasigeostropic forcing from positive temperature or vorticity advection associated with low-pressure centres. HLES is produced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) convection that is initiated as a result of cold and dry continental air mass advecting over relatively warm lakes and generating turbulent moisture and heat fluxes into the PBL. HLES events can have disastrous impacts on local communities such as the November 2014 Buffalo storm that caused 13 fatalities. Albeit the many HLES studies, most are focused on specific case study events with a discernible under examination of climatological HLES trend analyses for the Canadian GLB. The research objectives are to first determine the historical, climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals and to examine potential surface and atmospheric variables driving the resultant changes in HLES. The second aims to analyze the historical extremes in snowfall by assessing the intensity, frequency, and duration of snowfall within the domain of interest. Spatiotemporal snowfall and precipitation trends are computed for the 1982 to 2015 period using Daymet (Version 3) monthly gridded observational datasets from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) datasets are also used for evaluating trends in HLES driving variables such as air temperature, lake surface temperature (LST), ice cover concentration, omega, and vertical temperature gradient (VTGlst-850). Climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals show a significant decrease along the Ontario snowbelt of Lake Superior, Lake Huron and Georgian Bay at the 90 percent confidence level. These results are attributed to significant warming in LST, significant

Large-Scale Overlays and Trends: Visually Mining, Panning and Zooming the Observable Universe.

PubMed

Luciani, Timothy Basil; Cherinka, Brian; Oliphant, Daniel; Myers, Sean; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Labrinidis, Alexandros; Marai, G Elisabeta

2014-07-01

We introduce a web-based computing infrastructure to assist the visual integration, mining and interactive navigation of large-scale astronomy observations. Following an analysis of the application domain, we design a client-server architecture to fetch distributed image data and to partition local data into a spatial index structure that allows prefix-matching of spatial objects. In conjunction with hardware-accelerated pixel-based overlays and an online cross-registration pipeline, this approach allows the fetching, displaying, panning and zooming of gigabit panoramas of the sky in real time. To further facilitate the integration and mining of spatial and non-spatial data, we introduce interactive trend images-compact visual representations for identifying outlier objects and for studying trends within large collections of spatial objects of a given class. In a demonstration, images from three sky surveys (SDSS, FIRST and simulated LSST results) are cross-registered and integrated as overlays, allowing cross-spectrum analysis of astronomy observations. Trend images are interactively generated from catalog data and used to visually mine astronomy observations of similar type. The front-end of the infrastructure uses the web technologies WebGL and HTML5 to enable cross-platform, web-based functionality. Our approach attains interactive rendering framerates; its power and flexibility enables it to serve the needs of the astronomy community. Evaluation on three case studies, as well as feedback from domain experts emphasize the benefits of this visual approach to the observational astronomy field; and its potential benefits to large scale geospatial visualization in general.

Carbon monoxide observations from ground stations in France and Europe and long trends in the free troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevalier, A.; Gheusi, F.; Attié, J.-L.; Delmas, R.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Cousin, J.-M.

2008-02-01

Continuous CO measurements performed at 3 high-altitude stations in France are analyzed for the first time. Data are provided by the new PAES (Pollution Atmospherique à l'Echelle Synoptique) network since 2002 for the Puy de Dôme and 2004 for the Pic du Midi and the Donon. CO measurements of 5 another European stations have been analysed to put the PAES stations in an European perspective. The January 2002-April 2005 CO mean levels of surface stations capture the stratification revealed by climatological CO profiles from the airborne observation system MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and water vapour by Airbus In-service Aircraft). The deviation between the free tropospheric reference MOZAIC and surface data above 2000 m is less than 10% and this deviation can be explained in term of spatial variability, as evidenced by MOPITT CO retrievals at 700 hPa. This suggests that, averaged at a seasonal time scale (4 months), surface data at stations above 2000 m are representative of background CO concentration. This paper focuses then on trends since the 1980s-1990s. The comparison between old (1982-1983) and recent CO mixing ratio (2005) at the Pic du Midi leads to a 10% decrease, consistent with the continuous data series at Zugspitze (ZSP) from 1991 to 2004. This decrease was found to be mainly due to a negative trend of January-April mean levels. The decrease in CO sources over France and Europe appears to be responsible for that trend. The stable values of June-September mean levels suggest that the summertime oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere related to OH radicals is important enough to counterbalance any CO inputs into the troposphere. Our study shows a recent change in CO evolution since 2000 over Western Europe, with a slowed down decrease in CO concentration. Studying specifically the interactions between CO, CH4 and OH turns out to be needed, however, to find definitive explanations to those observations.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Comparison of Observed and Simulated 1990 – 2010 U.S. Ozone Trends

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we analyze ozone concentrations from long-term (1990 – 2010) WRF-CMAQ simulations driven by year specific meteorology and emissions. These simulations allow us to compare observed and simulated ozone trends in order to evaluate the model’s ability to pr...

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron

2016-03-01

Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Observations of resistance through minimum inhibitory concentrations trends for respiratory specimens of commonly isolated organisms.

PubMed

Gillard, Christopher J; Al-Dahir, Sara; Brakta, Fatima

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) trends among common bacterial organisms found in respiratory isolates in the trauma intensive care unit setting. In this retrospective observational study, MIC data was reviewed over a three year period from January 2009 to December 2011 for the three most frequently identified organisms isolated from respiratory specimens in a trauma intensive care unit along with corresponding hospital data. The most frequently isolated bacterial species identified were Staphylococcus aureus (229 isolates), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (129 isolates), and Acinetobacter species (87 isolates) in the analysis within our institution from 2009-2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for the analyzed organisms. For Pseudomonas isolates, observed sensitivities were as high as 100% for antibiotics ciprofloxacin and imipenem in 2009, but decreased over the next two years in 2010 and 2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for Acinetobacter over the three year period for the antibiotics tested. The MIC data for most Staphylococcus aureus isolates over the three years were sensitive to vancomycin with little change in the observed MIC data. The data reported is observational and indicates the need for future studies to establish a valid relationship of the MIC data over time in our institution particularly among our gram negative organisms, to monitor patterns of antimicrobial resistance. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in detectable viral load by calendar year in the Australian HIV observational database.

PubMed

Law, Matthew G; Woolley, Ian; Templeton, David J; Roth, Norm; Chuah, John; Mulhall, Brian; Canavan, Peter; McManus, Hamish; Cooper, David A; Petoumenos, Kathy

2011-02-23

Recent papers have suggested that expanded combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) through lower viral load may be a strategy to reduce HIV transmission at a population level. We assessed calendar trends in detectable viral load in patients recruited to the Australian HIV Observational Database who were receiving cART. Patients were included in analyses if they had started cART (defined as three or more antiretrovirals) and had at least one viral load assessment after 1 January 1997. We analyzed detectable viral load (>400 copies/ml) in the first and second six months of each calendar year while receiving cART. Repeated measures logistic regression methods were used to account for within and between patient variability. Rates of detectable viral load were predicted allowing for patients lost to follow up. Analyses were based on 2439 patients and 31,339 viral load assessments between 1 January 1997 and 31 March 2009. Observed detectable viral load in patients receiving cART declined to 5.3% in the first half of 2009. Predicted detectable viral load based on multivariate models, allowing for patient loss to follow up, also declined over time, but at higher levels, to 13.8% in 2009. Predicted detectable viral load in Australian HIV Observational Database patients receiving cART declined over calendar time, albeit at higher levels than observed. However, over this period, HIV diagnoses and estimated HIV incidence increased in Australia.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Loyola, Diego

2018-01-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

2016-09-01

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

Current trends in Natural Gas Flaring Observed from Space with VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhizhin, M. N.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2017-12-01

The five-year survey of natural gas flaring in 2012-2016 has been completed with nighttime Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. The survey identifies flaring site locations, annual duty cycle, and provides an estimate of the flared gas volumes in methane equivalents. VIIRS is particularly well-.suited for detecting and measuring the radiant emissions from gas flares through the collection of shortwave and near-infrared data at night, recording the peak radiant emissions from flares. The total flared gas volume is estimated at 140 +/-30 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year, corresponding to 3.5% of global natural gas production. While Russia leads in terms of flared gas volume (>20 BCM), the U.S. has the largest number of flares (8,199 of 19,057 worldwide). The two countries have opposite trends in flaring: while for the U.S. the peak was reached in 2015, for Russia it was the minimum. On the regional scale in the U.S., Texas has the maximum number of flares (3749), with North Dakota, the second highest, having one half of this number (2,003). The number of flares for most of the states has decreased in the last 3 years following the trend in oil prices. The presentation will compare the global estimates, and regional trends observed in the U.S. regions. Preliminary estimates for global gas flaring in 2017 will be presented

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jongeward, Andrew R.; Li, Zhanqing; He, Hao; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2016-01-01

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Trends in Condom Use and Risk Behaviours after Sexual Exposure to HIV: A Seven-Year Observational Study

PubMed Central

Casalino, Enrique; Choquet, Christophe; Leleu, Agathe; Hellmann, Romain; Wargon, Mathias; Juillien, Gaelle; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Bouvet, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine the trends in numbers and percentages of sexually exposed persons to HIV (SE) consulting an ED for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), as well as predictors of condom use. Study Design We conducted a prospective-observational study. Methods We included all SE attendances in our Emergency Department (ED) during a seven-year study-period (2006–2012). Trends were analyzed using time-series analysis. Logistic Regression was used to define indicators of condom use. Results We enrolled 1851 SE: 45.7% reported intercourse without condom-use and 12.2% with an HIV-infected partner. Significant (p<0.01) rising trends were observed in the overall number of SE visits (+75%), notably among men having sex with men (MSM) (+126%). There were rising trends in the number and percentage of those reporting intercourse without condom-use in the entire population +91% (p<0.001) and +1% (p>0.05), in MSM +228% (p<0.001) and +49% (p<0.001), in Heterosexuals +68% (p<0.001) and +10% (p = 0.08). Among MSM, significant rising trends were found in those reporting high-risk behaviours: anal receptive (+450% and +76%) and anal insertive (+l33% and +70%) intercourses. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, heterosexuals, vaginal intercourse, visit during the night-shift and short time delay between SE and ED visit, were significantly associated with condom-use. Conclusion We report an increasing trend in the number of SE, mainly among MSM, and rising trends in high-risk behaviours and unprotected sexual intercourses among MSM. Our results indicate that SE should be considered as a high-risk population for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:25157477

Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993-2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Paniagua, Iván Y.; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

2017-07-01

Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O3 and odd oxygen (O3 + NO2) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in Ox (AVd) are used as a proxy for net O3 production, which is influenced by the NO2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AVd are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AVd values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0.33 ppb yr-1. Overall, from 1993 to 2014, within the MMA, O3 has increased at an average rate of 0.22 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 01), which is in marked contrast with the decline of 1.15 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 001) observed in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) for the same period. No clear trend is observed from 1996 to 2014 within the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA).

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

The relative importance of random error and observation frequency in detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-11-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

2015-03-01

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather

Collider shot setup for Run 2 observations and suggestions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annala, J.; Joshel, B.

1996-01-31

This note is intended to provoke discussion on Collider Run II shot setup. We hope this is a start of activities that will converge on a functional description of what is needed for shot setups in Collider Run II. We will draw on observations of the present shot setup to raise questions and make suggestions for the next Collider run. It is assumed that the reader has some familiarity with the Collider operational issues. Shot setup is defined to be the time between the end of a store and the time the Main Control Room declares colliding beams. This ismore » the time between Tevatron clock events SCE and SCB. This definition does not consider the time experiments use to turn on their detectors. This analysis was suggested by David Finley. The operational scenarios for Run II will require higher levels of reliability and speed for shot setup. See Appendix I and II. For example, we estimate that a loss of 3 pb{sup {minus}1}/week (with 8 hour stores) will occur if shot setups take 90 minutes instead of 30 minutes. In other words: If you do 12 shots for one week and accept an added delay of one minute in each shot, you will loose more than 60 nb{sup {minus}1} for that week alone (based on a normal shot setup of 30 minutes). These demands should lead us to be much more pedantic about all the factors that affect shot setups. Shot setup will be viewed as a distinct process that is composed of several inter- dependent `components`: procedures, hardware, controls, and sociology. These components don`t directly align with the different Accelerator Division departments, but are topical groupings of the needed accelerator functions. Defining these components, and categorizing our suggestions within them, are part of the goal of this document. Of course, some suggestions span several of these components.« less

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover

Tropospheric ozone long term trend observed by lidar and ECC ozonesondes at Observatoire de Haute Provence, Southern France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.

2014-12-01

During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Satellite Observations of NO2 Trend over Romania

PubMed Central

Voiculescu, Mirela; Georgescu, Lucian

2013-01-01

Satellite-based measurements of atmospheric trace gases loading give a realistic image of atmospheric pollution at global, regional, and urban level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the trend of atmospheric NO2 content over Romania for the period 1996–2010 for several regions which are generally characterized by different pollutant loadings, resulting from GOME-1, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. Satellite results are then compared with ground-based in situ measurements made in industrial and relatively clean areas of one major city in Romania. This twofold approach will help in estimating whether the trend of NO2 obtained by means of data satellite retrievals can be connected with the evolution of national industry and transportation. PMID:24453819

Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rawlins, M.A.; Steele, M.; Holland, M.M.; Adam, J.C.; Cherry, J.E.; Francis, J.A.; Groisman, P.Y.; Hinzman, L.D.; Huntington, T.G.; Kane, D.L.; Kimball, J.S.; Kwok, R.; Lammers, R.B.; Lee, C.M.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; McDonald, K.C.; Podest, E.; Pundsack, J.W.; Rudels, B.; Serreze, Mark C.; Shiklomanov, A.; Skagseth, O.; Troy, T.J.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Wensnahan, M.; Wood, E.F.; Woodgate, R.; Yang, D.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, T.

2010-01-01

Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE PAGES

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; ...

2015-06-01

-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko

-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial

Persistent collective trend in stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

2010-12-01

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates

Trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 column density over East Asia during 2000-2010: multi-satellite observations and model simulations with the updated REAS emission inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itahashi, S.; Uno, I.; Irie, H.; Kurokawa, J.; Ohara, T.

2013-04-01

Satellite observations of the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) are closely correlated to surface NOx emissions and can thus be used to estimate the latter. In this study, the NO2 VCDs simulated by a regional chemical transport model with data from the updated Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2.1 were validated by comparison with multi-satellite observations (GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI) between 2000 and 2010. Rapid growth in NO2 VCD driven by expansion of anthropogenic NOx emissions was revealed above the central eastern China region, except during the economic downturn. In contrast, slightly decreasing trends were captured above Japan. The modeled NO2 VCDs using the updated REAS emissions reasonably reproduced the annual trends observed by multi-satellites, suggesting that the NOx emissions growth rate estimated by the updated inventory is robust. On the basis of the close linear relationship of modeled NO2 VCD, observed NO2 VCD, and anthropogenic NOx emissions, the NOx emissions in 2009 and 2010 were estimated. It was estimated that the NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources in China beyond doubled between 2000 and 2010, reflecting the strong growth of anthropogenic emissions in China with the rapid recovery from the economic downturn during late 2008 and mid-2009.

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

PubMed Central

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967–2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002–2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277 PMID:25810765

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space.

PubMed

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-05-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.

Assessment of Surface Water Storage trends for increasing groundwater areas in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Chandan; Kumar, D. Nagesh

2018-07-01

Recent studies based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission suggested that groundwater has increased in central and southern parts of India. However, surface water, which is an equally important source of water in these semi-arid areas has not been studied yet. In the present study, the study areas were outlined based on trends in GRACE data followed by trend identification in surface water storages and checking the hypothesis of causality. Surface Water Extent (SWE) and Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) derived from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) respectively, are selected as proxies of surface water storage (SWS). Besides SWE and SSM, trend test was performed for GRACE derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) for the study areas named as R1, R2, GOR1 and KOR1. Granger-causality test is used to test the hypothesis that rainfall is a causal factor of the inter-annual variability of SWE, SSM and TWS. Positive trends were observed in TWS for R1, R2 and GOR1 whereas SWE and SSM show increasing trends for all the study regions. Results suggest that rainfall is the granger-causal of all the storage variables for R1 and R2, the regions exhibiting the most significant positive trends in TWS.

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

PubMed

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R 2 =0.318; p=0.014). These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study

PubMed Central

Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam

2017-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Design Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Results Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014). Conclusions These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

2011-01-01

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Observations of Europe wide Trends in background and peak O3, CO and NO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; Monks, P. S.; Brunsdon, C.; Henne, S.; Buchmann, B.; Konovalov, I.; Beekman, M.

2009-04-01

The GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and MONitoring) project has produced a harmonised data set of trace gases from various ground-based measurement stations. These stations belong to a variety of regional, national and European air quality networks (e.g. EMEP, GAW). Investigations into instrumental calibration and data quality have been carried out in order to make comparison between the sites as accurate as possible for a long time-scale trend analysis. Ozone seasonal cycles at the various sites have been compared, showing characteristic cycles according to latitude, elevation, vicinity to coastal areas and pollution sources and population nearby. A de-trending of this seasonal cycle revealed long-term variations in ozone and a considerable difference between background and peak ozone trends between sites. National, European and international legislation has aimed at reducing CO and NO2 and correspondingly, reduce O3 levels over the last 20 years but the trends are not as clear cut and reveal that there is not a homogeneous reduction in these species across Europe. Splitting the data into seasonal periods and also into lower and upper concentration percentiles shows us more clearly how the species vary across Europe. There is a tendency for peak ozone levels to decrease, whilst the background levels have mostly increased. Averages, lower and upper percentiles of these species at the GEOMON stations are shown on European maps and the distribution of annual ozone trends is evaluated. Comparisons with models that estimate the lower and upper percentiles of ozone during summer overestimate ozone levels but not uniformly across Europe.

Assessing the Controversy between Altimetry, Radiometry, and Scatterometry: Satellite Observation Requirements for Trends in Extreme Winds and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, J.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

A recent study (Young et al. 2011) investigated recent global trends in mean and extreme (90th- and 99th-percentile) wind speed and wave height. Wentz and Ricciardulli (2011) have criticized the study, citing the methodology solely employing data collected from a series of altimetry missions and lack of adequate verification of the results. An earlier study (Wentz et al. 2007) had differing results using data from microwave radiometers and scatterometers. This study serves as a response to these studies, employing a similar methodology but with a different set of data. Data collected from the QuikSCAT and ADEOS-2 SeaWinds scatterometers, SSMI(S), and TOPEX/POSEIDON and JASON-1 altimetry missions are used to calculate trends in the mean, 90th-, and 99th-percentile wind speed and wave height over the period 1999—2009. Linear regression analyses from the satellite missions are verified against regression analyses of data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Temporal sampling presents the most critical consideration in the study. The scatterometers have a much greater independent temporal sampling (about 1.5 observations per day per satellite) than the altimeters (about 1 observation per 10 days). With this consideration, the satellite data are also used to sample the wind speeds in the ERA-Interim dataset. That portion of the study indicates the sampling requirements needed to accurately estimate the trends in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Wentz, F.J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235. Wentz, F.J. and L. Ricciardulli, 2011: Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height." Science, 334, 905. Young, I.R., S. Zieger, and A.V. Babanin, 2011a: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 332, 451-455.

Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

2012-12-01

It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Contemporary Trends in Land Surface Phenologies from the Aral Basin Suggest Weather- or Irrigation-Driven Changes in GPP not Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, C. K.; de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.

2009-12-01

The transformation of the Aral Sea into the Aral Lakes is a startling example of anthropogenic environmental degradation. However, ongoing impacts of hydrologic modification and climatic change are occurring throughout the nearly 2 million km2 Aral Basin (AB), thus requiring synoptic, basin-wide monitoring of environmental trends. The MODIS 500m global land cover (LC) product is a potential source of such information in a data-sparse region like the AB. However, we find that it is particularly unstable in this arid/semi-arid region. For example, 25% of AB pixels change LC class between 2001 and 2005 versions of the global LC using the IGBP LC scheme. Here we present an alternate analysis of environmental trends in the AB using MODIS data at the same spatial resolution, but incorporating temporal information embedded within contemporary land surface phenologies (LSPs), in contrast to temporally delimited LC. NDVI time series from 2001-2008 were derived from 500m MODIS NBAR data (16-d composites every 8 d; MCD43A4). Focusing on the period from 1 March to 1 October, each pixel time series was comprised of 27 NDVI values per year (or 216 composites in total). Trend analysis using the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall test revealed a number of spatially coherent hotspots of highly significant (p<0.01) positive and negative trends in NDVI dynamics over the 2001-2008 interval. Relative to the 2001 and 2005 LC classifications, positive trends tended to coincide with the following transitions between IGBP classes: open shrub → closed shrub; grassland → {open shrub, cropland}; {open shrub, cropland/natural vegetation mix} → cropland. These findings suggest that apparent LC change events might be false-positives caused by weather-driven increases in GPP. In turn, negative trends were largely coincident with putative LC change to grassland from mostly woody classes: {closed shrub, open shrub, woody savanna, savanna, snow/ice, barren} → grassland. Here, potential false

An Overview of OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS), a SPARC Emerging Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Manney, G. L.; Hoor, P. M.; Bourassa, A. E.; Braathen, G.; Chang, K. L.; Hegglin, M. I.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Leblanc, T.; Livesey, N. J.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Stiller, G. P.; Tegtmeier, S.; Thouret, V.; Voigt, C.; Walker, K. A.

2017-12-01

The distribution of tracers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) shows large spatial and temporal variability because of interactions of transport, chemical, and mixing processes near the tropopause, as well as variations in the location of the tropopause itself. This strongly affects quantitative estimates of the impact of radiatively active substances, including ozone and water vapour, on surface temperatures, and complicates diagnosis of dynamical processes such as stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE). The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) emerging activity OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS) aims to reduce the uncertainties in trend estimates by accounting for these dynamically induced sources of variability. Achieving these goals by using existing UTLS trace gas observations from aircraft, ground-based, balloon and satellite platforms requires a consistent analysis of these different data with respect to the tropopause or the jets. As a central task for OCTAV-UTLS, we are developing and applying common metrics, calculated using the same reanalysis datasets, to compare UTLS data using geophysically-based coordinate systems including tropopause and upper tropospheric jet relative coordinates. In addition to assessing present day measurement capabilities, OCTAV-UTLS will assess gaps in current geographical / temporal sampling of the UTLS that limit our ability to determine atmospheric composition variability and trends. This talk will provide an overview of the OCTAV-UTLS activity and some examples of initial calculations of geophysically-based coordinates and comparisons of remapped data.

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

PubMed

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

2012-03-19

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

Chandra Observations and Models of the Mixed Morphology Supernova Remnant W44: Global Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, R. L.; Kuntz, K. D.; Petre, R.

2004-01-01

We report on the Chandra observations of the archetypical mixed morphology (or thermal composite) supernova remnant, W44. As with other mixed morphology remnants, W44's projected center is bright in thermal X-rays. It has an obvious radio shell, but no discernable X-ray shell. In addition, X-ray bright knots dot W44's image. The spectral analysis of the Chandra data show that the remnant s hot, bright projected center is metal-rich and that the bright knots are regions of comparatively elevated elemental abundances. Neon is among the affected elements, suggesting that ejecta contributes to the abundance trends. Furthermore, some of the emitting iron atoms appear to be underionized with respect to the other ions, providing the first potential X-ray evidence for dust destruction in a supernova remnant. We use the Chandra data to test the following explanations for W44's X-ray bright center: 1.) entropy mixing due to bulk mixing or thermal conduction, 2.) evaporation of swept up clouds, and 3.) a metallicity gradient, possibly due to dust destruction and ejecta enrichment. In these tests, we assume that the remnant has evolved beyond the adiabatic evolutionary stage, which explains the X-ray dimness of the shell. The entropy mixed model spectrum was tested against the Chandra spectrum for the remnant's projected center and found to be a good match. The evaporating clouds model was constrained by the finding that the ionization parameters of the bright knots are similar to those of the surrounding regions. While both the entropy mixed and the evaporating clouds models are known to predict centrally bright X-ray morphologies, their predictions fall short of the observed brightness gradient. The resulting brightness gap can be largely filled in by emission from the extra metals in and near the remnant's projected center. The preponderance of evidence (including that drawn from other studies) suggests that W44's remarkable morphology can be attributed to dust destruction

Multi-year levels and trends of non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations observed in ambient air in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine

2016-09-01

Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.

Trends in stratospheric NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2009-04-01

Data of spectrometric ground-based measurements of stratospheric column NO2 contents at stations within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) are analyzed for linear trends. The trend analysis takes into account the NO2 seasonal variation, effects of the 11-year solar and geomagnetic activity cycles, effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, and the effects of the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. The latitudinal distributions of the annual and seasonal trends in NO2 have been obtained. The annual trends are mostly positive in the southern hemisphere middle and low latitudes and negative in the European sector of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. In the high and polar latitudes of the two hemispheres, the annual estimates of trends are mostly statistically insignificant. However, a positive NO2 trend is observed at 78°S in the Antarctic, while positive and negative trends are observed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes. The maximum positive and negative trends are about 10% per decade by module. Seasonal estimates of the trends differ generally from the annual estimates. At stations of Zvenigorod, Jungfraujoch (northern hemisphere middle latitudes), Lauder, and Macquarie Island (southern hemisphere middle latitudes) the signs of the NO2 trends do not depend on season, although the trend values vary with season. At other stations, trend values, their statistical significance, and even their signs can vary with season. Nitrogen oxides affects the photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone directly and indirectly, influencing the effectiveness of ozone destruction in the chlorine cycle. The observed significant trends in stratospheric NO2 should result in noticeable perturbations of the rates of ozone destruction in the nitrogen cycle. The sensitivities of photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone to long-term changes in stratospheric NO2 and chlorine are estimated using a

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

PubMed Central

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C.

2012-01-01

Objectives Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982–2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998–2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998–2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. Conclusions We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.1 PMID:22456049

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Global Trends in Chlorophyll Concentration Observed with the Satellite Ocean Colour Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melin, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Chuprin, A.; Grant, M.; Jackson, T.; Sathyendranath, S.

2016-08-01

To detect climate change signals in the data records derived from remote sensing of ocean colour, combining data from multiple missions is required, which implies that the existence of inter-mission differences be adequately addressed prior to undertaking trend studies. Trend distributions associated with merged products are compared with those obtained from single-mission data sets in order to evaluate their suitability for climate studies. Merged products originally developed for operational applications such as near-real time distribution (GlobColour) do not appear to be proper climate data records, showing large parts of the ocean with trends significantly different from trends obtained with SeaWiFS, MODIS or MERIS. On the other hand, results obtained from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data are encouraging, showing a good consistency with single-mission products.

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, D. J.; Gillett, N. P.; Lanzante, J.; Shine, K. P.; Thorne, P.

2010-12-01

Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy. Although many of the same modeling and observational tools have been applied, and there are many common scientific issues in both regions of the atmosphere, stratospheric temperatures have not captured the imagination of the public, the popular press and public policy community. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970’s to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature, including observing systems, dataset development for trend estimates, modeling approaches, and associated uncertainties. Recent developments will be highlighted.

The Near Future Trend: Combining Web Access and Local CD Networks. Experience and a Few Suggestions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Wei

1998-01-01

Focuses on the trend to combine Web access and CD networks, benefits of considering the community network environment as a whole, and need for flexibility in considering new technologies. Describes the Occidental College Library (California) experience of building and sharing a network and network file server. (PEN)

Trends, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane over the western Pacific observed using voluntary observing ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terao, Y.; Kim, H.; Mukai, H.; Nojiri, Y.; Machida, T.; Tohjima, Y.; Saeki, T.; Maksyutov, S.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of trends, interannual variability (IAV), and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane (CH4) over the western Pacific between 55N and 35S from 1994 to 2011. Observations were made by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), using voluntary observation ships sailing between Japan and Australia/New Zealand and between Japan and North America, sampling background maritime air quasi-monthly with high resolution in latitude. We found remarkable phenomena in IAV of CH4 in the northern tropics over the western Pacific: 1) the high growth rate of 20 ppb/yr in mid-1997 ahead of the global increase in 1998, 2) the suppression of CH4 growth in 2007, 3) significantly smaller amplitude of seasonal cycle in 1999-2000 and in 2008. Results from the simulation and meteorological analysis indicated that the IAV in atmospheric circulation associated with the El Nino and La Nina significantly contributed to these events. Our observations were made at sites located relatively close to the large CH4 sources of East and Southeast Asia, which resulted in the high sensitivity of measured CH4 mixing ratios in the northern tropics to changes in atmospheric transport and emissions from East and Southeast Asia. We will show the results from inverse analysis using our ship measurements as well as other global dataset. The CH4 data set we presented here would be valuable in accurately and quantitatively estimating the global CH4 budget.

The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

2017-04-01

Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

Epidemiology and Trends in Incidence of Kidney Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Pournamdar, Zahra; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Kidney cancer has shown an increasing trend in recent decades. This study aimed to determine change in the incidence rate between 2003 and 2009 in Iran. In this study, national cancer registry data were used. Crude incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were computed using the direct standardization method and the world standard population. Significant trend of incidence rates was examined by the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trend. A total of 6,944 cases of kidney cancer were reported. The incidence cases increased from 595 patients in 2003 to 1,387 patients in 2009. Sex ratio (male to female) was 1.67. ASR also increased from 1.18 in 2003 to 2.52 in 2009 per 100,000, but the increasing trend was not significant. A slow increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in the study population. This may be due to an increase of risk factors. It is suggested to perform a study on risk factors for the cancer.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Who launched what, when and why; trends in global land-cover observation capacity from civilian earth observation satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belward, Alan S.; Skøien, Jon O.

2015-05-01

This paper presents a compendium of satellites under civilian and/or commercial control with the potential to gather global land-cover observations. From this we show that a growing number of sovereign states are acquiring capacity for space based land-cover observations and show how geopolitical patterns of ownership are changing. We discuss how the number of satellites flying at any time has progressed as a function of increased launch rates and mission longevity, and how the spatial resolutions of the data they collect has evolved. The first such satellite was launched by the USA in 1972. Since then government and/or private entities in 33 other sovereign states and geopolitical groups have chosen to finance such missions and 197 individual satellites with a global land-cover observing capacity have been successfully launched. Of these 98 were still operating at the end of 2013. Since the 1970s the number of such missions failing within 3 years of launch has dropped from around 60% to less than 20%, the average operational life of a mission has almost tripled, increasing from 3.3 years in the 1970s to 8.6 years (and still lengthening), the average number of satellites launched per-year/per-decade has increased from 2 to 12 and spatial resolution increased from around 80 m to less than 1 m multispectral and less than half a meter for panchromatic; synthetic aperture radar resolution has also fallen, from 25 m in the 1970s to 1 m post 2007. More people in more countries have access to data from global land-cover observing spaceborne missions at a greater range of spatial resolutions than ever before. We provide a compendium of such missions, analyze the changes and shows how innovation, the need for secure data-supply, national pride, falling costs and technological advances may underpin the trends we document.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at 8 NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2014-09-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2%, but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45 km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Compososition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely: Ny-Alesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time-series varies by station, but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere, and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns; at Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0 % decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seems to be needed to observe it at the northern mid

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at eight NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2015-03-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2% but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely, Ny-Ålesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time series varies by station but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns where they are found positive. At Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0% decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seem to be needed to observe it at

Eighteenth-Century Observations of Algol: The First Suggestion of an Exoplanet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Linda M.

2017-10-01

In November of 1782, 18-year old John Goodricke of York, England, was amazed to observe the star Algol (Beta Persei) dim by more than one magnitude and then return to full brightness over a period of seven hours. Goodricke and his mentor, Edward Pigott, speculated that the dimming could only have been caused by a "dark body" passing in front of Algol. Over the succeeding months, the two were able to refine the period between what we now know to be eclipses to 2.87 days. They would determine the periods of other variable stars, including the first two Cepheid variables known. Yet in their lifetime, their suggestion that Algol's variation was due to an eclipse was not accepted. Most astronomers believed the variations were due to spots on the surface of a single star. Only a century later, with the advent of astronomical spectroscopy, was Algol's true nature revealed. Goodricke and Pigott's work is one of the first studies of stellar variation; their methods and occasional pitfalls are ones to which modern astronomers can relate.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Representational constraints on children's suggestibility.

PubMed

Ceci, Stephen J; Papierno, Paul B; Kulkofsky, Sarah

2007-06-01

In a multistage experiment, twelve 4- and 9-year-old children participated in a triad rating task. Their ratings were mapped with multidimensional scaling, from which euclidean distances were computed to operationalize semantic distance between items in target pairs. These children and age-mates then participated in an experiment that employed these target pairs in a story, which was followed by a misinformation manipulation. Analyses linked individual and developmental differences in suggestibility to children's representations of the target items. Semantic proximity was a strong predictor of differences in suggestibility: The closer a suggested distractor was to the original item's representation, the greater was the distractor's suggestive influence. The triad participants' semantic proximity subsequently served as the basis for correctly predicting memory performance in the larger group. Semantic proximity enabled a priori counterintuitive predictions of reverse age-related trends to be confirmed whenever the distance between representations of items in a target pair was greater for younger than for older children.

Recent Short Term Global Aerosol Trends over Land and Ocean Dominated by Biomass Burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, Lorraine A.; Koren, Ilan; Kleidman, RIchard G.; Levy, Robert C.; Martins, J. Vanderlei; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Tanre, Didier; Mattoo, Shana; Yu, Hongbin

2007-01-01

NASA's MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite is one of the premier tools to assess aerosol over land and ocean because of its high quality calibration and consistency. We analyze Terra-MODIS's seven year record of aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations to determine whether global aerosol has increased or decreased during this period. This record shows that AOD has decreased over land and increased over ocean. Only the ocean trend is statistically significant and corresponds to an increase in AOD of 0.009, or a 15% increase from background conditions. The strongest increasing trends occur over regions and seasons noted for strong biomass burning. This suggests that biomass burning aerosol dominates the increasing trend over oceans and mitigates the otherwise mostly negative trend over the continents.

Relationships between ten-year trends of tropospheric ozone and temperature over Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsu, Kuang-Jung

2007-03-01

The analyses of ten-year ozonesonde observations from 1993 till 2002, over Taipei, Taiwan show influences of climate change. Despite huge increases in its precursor emissions in this region, there were little variations in tropospheric ozone. Results indicate a warmer troposphere, a statistically insignificant rising tropopause, 79+/-206 m per decade, and decreasing tropopause temperature at -1.0+/-0.89 K per decade. The derived mean tropospheric ozone is 40.58+/-10.99 DU, and has a statistically insignificant small trend of -0.78+/-1.7 DU per decade. The derived ten-year vertical trends of temperature and ozone are inversely correlated with each other from the middle troposphere up to the lower stratosphere. The averaged monthly vertical temperature trends show a generally warmer middle troposphere. The tropospheric ozone monthly trend has small increases only in the lower troposphere during winter and spring. Strong decreases occur in summer, from the surface up into the stratosphere. For ozone variation, results suggest that influences of climate forcing are stronger than those from precursor increases. More frequent and/or intense convection in summer and other climate-induced effects may contribute to the less than expected ozone observed in the troposphere.

NOx emission trends over Chinese cities estimated from OMI observations during 2005 to 2015.

PubMed

Liu, Fei; Beirle, Steffen; Zhang, Qiang; van der A, Ronald J; Zheng, Bo; Tong, Dan; He, Kebin

2017-01-01

Satellite NO 2 observations have been widely used to evaluate emission changes. To determine trends in NO x emission over China, we used a method independent of chemical transport models to quantify the NO x emissions from 48 cities and 7 power plants over China, on the basis of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 observations during 2005 to 2015. We found that NO x emissions over 48 Chinese cities increased by 52% from 2005 to 2011 and decreased by 21% from 2011 to 2015. The decrease since 2011 could be mainly attributed to emission control measures in power sector; while cities with different dominant emission sources (i.e. power, industrial and transportation sectors) showed variable emission decline timelines that corresponded to the schedules for emission control in different sectors. The time series of the derived NO x emissions was consistent with the bottom-up emission inventories for all power plants (r=0.8 on average), but not for some cities (r=0.4 on average). The lack of consistency observed for cities was most probably due to the high uncertainty of bottom-up urban emissions used in this study, which were derived from downscaling the regional-based emission data to cities by using spatial distribution proxies.

NOx emission trends over Chinese cities estimated from OMI observations during 2005 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; Beirle, Steffen; Zhang, Qiang; van der A, Ronald J.; Zheng, Bo; Tong, Dan; He, Kebin

2017-08-01

Satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations have been widely used to evaluate emission changes. To determine trends in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission over China, we used a method independent of chemical transport models to quantify the NOx emissions from 48 cities and seven power plants over China, on the basis of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 observations from 2005 to 2015. We found that NOx emissions over 48 Chinese cities increased by 52 % from 2005 to 2011 and decreased by 21 % from 2011 to 2015. The decrease since 2011 could be mainly attributed to emission control measures in power sector; while cities with different dominant emission sources (i.e., power, industrial, and transportation sectors) showed variable emission decline timelines that corresponded to the schedules for emission control in different sectors. The time series of the derived NOx emissions was consistent with the bottom-up emission inventories for all power plants (r = 0. 8 on average), but not for some cities (r = 0. 4 on average). The lack of consistency observed for cities was most probably due to the high uncertainty of bottom-up urban emissions used in this study, which were derived from downscaling the regional-based emission data to city level by using spatial distribution proxies.

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

2017-01-01

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

PubMed

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-04-05

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover

PubMed Central

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A.; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H.; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration. PMID:28378830

Is climate change intensifying the drying-trend in the Caribbean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, D. A.; Ault, T.; Fasullo, J.; Carrillo, C. M.

2017-12-01

Since 1950, the Caribbean (11ºN-25ºN; 85ºW-60ºW) has seen a significant drying trend characterized by several recent droughts, some of them contemporaneous with El Niño events. Moreover, the most recent drought from 2013 to 2016 was both the most severe and widespread event since at least 1950, and was associated with high temperatures, likely driven in part by climate change. This work examines the role of increased evaporative demand resulting from warmer temperatures on the drying trend observed in the Caribbean since 1950, using observations and model simulations. Large-scale dynamics associated with drought are also analyzed using sea surface temperature, geopotential height, wind, and precipitation anomalies, as well as radiative fluxes anomalies. Furthermore, land surface model soil moisture and high-resolution self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) datasets are used to quantify drought severity at local scales. The anthropogenic contribution to drought severity is estimated as the difference between the scPDSI calculated using linearly-detrended temperatures, and the scPDSI computed with the observed trend, with unadjusted precipitation, net radiation, and wind speed. Soil moisture anomalies driven by climate change are derived by comparing a large ensemble of forced simulations against a pre-industrial control. The resulting analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing has intensified the drying trend in the Caribbean by -0.4 scPDSI-units over 60 years, and has increased the dry-land area by 10%. These findings are consistent with observed potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies, which are 30% higher than PET-anomalies estimated using detrended temperatures. These results suggest that climate change is already increasing the risk of drought in the Caribbean by enhancing the atmospheric demand of moisture through temperature, and provide insights into the role of climate change in future drought risk in the region.

2010-2015 methane trends over Canada, the United States, and Mexico observed by the GOSAT satellite: contributions from different source sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, J. X.; Jacob, D.; Turner, A. J.; Maasakkers, J. D.; Benmergui, J. S.; Bloom, A. A.; Arndt, C.; Gautam, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.; Boesch, H.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We use six years (2010-2015) of methane column data from the GOSAT satellite to examine trends in atmospheric methane over North America and infer trends in emissions. Local methane enhancements above background are diagnosed in the GOSAT data on a 0.5°x0.5° grid by estimating the local background as the low (10th-25th) quantile of the deseasonalized frequency distributions of the data for individual years. Trends in methane enhancements on the 0.5°x0.5° grid are then aggregated nationally and for individual source sectors, using information from state-of-science bottom-up inventories, to increase statistical power. We infer that US methane emissions increased by 1.9% a-1 over the six-year period, with contributions from both oil/gas systems (possibly unconventional gas production) and from livestock in the Midwest (possibly swine production). Mexican emissions show a decrease that can be attributed to a decreasing cattle population. Canadian emissions show interannual variability driven by wetlands emissions and correlated with wetland areal extent. The US emission trends inferred from the GOSAT data are within the constraint provided by surface observations from the North American Carbon Program network.

The Tc Trend In The Zetta Reticuli System: N Spectra - N Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adibekyan, V.; Figueira, P.; Delgado Mena, E.; Sousa, S. G.; Santos, N. C.; González Hernández; , I.; Israelian, G.

2017-10-01

It is suggested that the chemical abundance trend with the condensation temperature, Tc , can be a signature of rocky planet formation or accretion. Recently, a strong Tc trend was reported in the Zetta Reticuli binary system (Saffe et al., 2016), where ζ2 Ret Ret shows a deficit of refractory elements relative to its companion (ζ1 Ret). This depletion was explained by the presence of a debris disk around ζ2 Ret. Later, Adibekyan et al. (2016b) confirmed the significance of the trend, however, casted doubts on the interpretation proposed. Using three individual highest quality spectra for each star, they found that the Tc trends depend on the individual spectra (three spectra of each star were used) used in the analaysis. In the current work we re-evaluated the presence and variability of the Tc trend in this system using a larger number of individual spectra. In total, 62 spectra of ζ2 Ret and 31 spectra of ζ1 Ret was used. Our results confirm the word of caution issued by Adibekyan et al. (2016b) that nonphysical factors can be at the root of the T c trends for the cases of individual spectra.

Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

PubMed

Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

2016-07-20

The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Doherty, Sarah; Fettweis, Xavier; Alexander, Patrick; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-01-01

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model. Revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, D. B.; Stolarski, R. S.; Hollandsworth, S. M.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

1998-01-01

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation

Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

1996-01-01

Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Observing Decadal Trends in Atmospheric Feedbacks and Climate Change with Zeus and CLARREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revercomb, H. E.; Best, F. A.; Knuteson, R. O.; Tobin, D. C.; Taylor, J. K.; Gero, P.; Adler, D. P.; Pettersen, C.; Mulligan, M.; Tobin, D. C.

2012-12-01

New technologies for observing decadal trends in atmospheric feedbacks and climate change from space have been recently demonstrated via a NASA Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) project of our group and the Anderson Group of Harvard University. Using these new technologies, a mission named Zeus has been proposed to the first NASA Earth Venture Instruments opportunity (EVI-1). Zeus would provide a low cost mechanism to initiate a new era in high spectral resolution IR climate Benchmark and Intercalibration observations, the basis for which has been established by definition of the CLARREO mission in the 2007 NRC "Decadal Survey" and by the Science Definition Team established by NASA LaRC to further the full blown CLARREO mission. Zeus EVI is a low-cost, low-risk, and high-value EVI mission that will deploy an Absolute Radiance Interferometer (ARI) instrument to measure absolute spectrally resolved infrared radiance over much of the Earth-emitted spectrum with ultra-high accuracy (<0.1 K 3-sigma brightness temperature). Zeus makes use of broad spectral coverage (3.7-50 microns) and high spectral resolution (<1 cm-1) to provide benchmark products for climate trending with much higher information content than traditional spectrally-integrated measurements. While ARI requirements for accuracy and spectral properties are demanding, the overall instrument is relatively simple and low-cost because of the limited requirements on spatial sampling (25-100 km nadir-only footprints spaced at < 250 km) and on noise performance (climate products are created by combining many samples). The orbit chosen for Zeus must provide coverage immune to time-of-day sampling errors. Because of its relatively high rate of precession, an attractive baseline option for Zeus EVI is the 51.6 degrees inclination orbit of the International Space Station (ISS). For Zeus deployment on the ISS, higher latitude climate benchmark information will be obtained from operational sounders intercalibrated by

The Changing Surface of Saturn's Titan: Cassini Observations Suggest Active Cryovolcanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, R. M.

2008-12-01

conclude that the VIMS instrument has found two instances in which selected regions on Titan's surface became unusually reflective and remained reflective on time scales of days to months. In both cases the area of reflectance variability is large (~100000 sq km), larger than either Loki or the Big Island of Hawaii. This is a strong evidence for currently active surface processes on Titan. Pre-Cassini, Titan was thought of as a pre-biotic earth that was frozen in time. Cassini VIMS and SAR observations combined suggest that Titan is the present day is not frozen solid, and is instead an episodically changing or evolving world. References: [1] Nelson R. M. et al, LPSC 2007 , Europlanets 2007, AGU 2007, EGU 2008, Accepted in Icarus 2008. [2] Lopes et al (this meeting), Stofan et al. Icarus 185, 443-456, 2007. Lopes et al. Icarus 186, 395- 412, 2007. Kirk et al., DPS 2007. Acknowledgement: This work done at JPL under contract with NASA

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2015-01-01

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the

Limited effect of ozone reductions on the 20-year photosynthesis trend at Harvard forest.

PubMed

Yue, Xu; Keenan, Trevor F; Munger, William; Unger, Nadine

2016-11-01

Ozone (O 3 ) damage to leaves can reduce plant photosynthesis, which suggests that declines in ambient O 3 concentrations ([O 3 ]) in the United States may have helped increase gross primary production (GPP) in recent decades. Here, we assess the effect of long-term changes in ambient [O 3 ] using 20 years of observations at Harvard forest. Using artificial neural networks, we found that the effect of the inclusion of [O 3 ] as a predictor was slight, and independent of O 3 concentrations, which suggests limited high-frequency O 3 inhibition of GPP at this site. Simulations with a terrestrial biosphere model, however, suggest an average long-term O 3 inhibition of 10.4% for 1992-2011. A decline of [O 3 ] over the measurement period resulted in moderate predicted GPP trends of 0.02-0.04 μmol C m -2  s -1  yr -1 , which is negligible relative to the total observed GPP trend of 0.41 μmol C m -2  s -1  yr -1 . A similar conclusion is achieved with the widely used AOT40 metric. Combined, our results suggest that ozone reductions at Harvard forest are unlikely to have had a large impact on the photosynthesis trend over the past 20 years. Such limited effects are mainly related to the slow responses of photosynthesis to changes in [O 3 ]. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of photosynthesis happens in the shade, where stomatal conductance and thus [O 3 ] deposition is lower than for sunlit leaves. This portion of GPP remains unaffected by [O 3 ], thus helping to buffer the changes of total photosynthesis due to varied [O 3 ]. Our analyses suggest that current ozone reductions, although significant, cannot substantially alleviate the damages to forest ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

2010-06-01

The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) Observations Suggest Widespread Occurrence and Complex Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stillman, D. E.; Grimm, R. E.; Wagstaff, K.; Bue, B. D.; Michaels, T. I.

2017-12-01

RSL are described as narrow dark features that incrementally lengthen down steep slopes during warm seasons, fade in cold seasons, and recur annually. HiRISE observations from 5+ Mars years have allowed us to confirm 100 RSL sites and identify more than 600 candidate RSL sites. Detailed analysis of a few RSL sites has been performed using computer assisted analysis. RSL occur in low-albedo (dust-poor) regions with a latitude range of 42.2°N - 53.1°S. They are densely clustered throughout Valles Marineris (VM), in the light-toned layered deposits of Margaritifer and SW Arabia Terrae, Cerberus Fossae, and well-preserved impact craters in Chryse and Acidalia Planitae (CAP). RSL sites are also found at lower densities throughout the low-albedo highland terrains. RSL incrementally lengthen when their slopes are warm, thus the season at which RSL lengthen is dependent on latitude and slope orientation. While RSL occur on all slope orientation there is a large bias to W-facing and equatorial facing slopes. During the RSL activity season, RSL lengthening does not appear to be constant: (1) CAP RSL initially quickly lengthen and slow their lengthening rate by about an order of magnitude as temperatures increase, (2) many VM RSL sites possess RSL that fade at the same time that neighboring RSL on the same slope incrementally lengthen, and (3) some RSL sites in the southern mid-latitudes show at least two pulses of RSL activity - during the southern fall and summer RSL incrementally lengthen, fade, and then start incrementally lengthening again followed by fading as temperatures cool. The correlation of RSL activity to surface temperature, spectrally-derived hydrated salts, and quick fading all point to a wet formation mechanism. However, water sources remain problematic as water budgets suggest a much greater amount of water than could be trapped from the atmosphere. Additionally, some RSL occur in locations where subsurface discharge via an aquifer would be challenging

Projecting Trends in Public Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, Stuart S.

Looking back over the past 40 years, one can observe at least seven trends in public policy substance and in the study of public policy: (1) There is a trend toward higher goals for society in economic, social, political, and science policy. (2) Major changes in almost all fields of public policy have resulted in increased benefits for the less…

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Decadal trends in tropospheric ozone over East Asian Pacific rim during 1998-2007: Implications for emerging Asian emissions impacts and comparison to European and North American records (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanimoto, H.; Ohara, T.; Uno, I.

2010-12-01

We examine springtime ozone trends at nine remote locations in East Asian Pacific rim during the last decade (1998-2007). The observed decadal ozone trends are relatively small at surface sites but are substantially larger at a mountainous site. The level and increasing rate of ozone at the mountainous site are both higher than those observed at background sites in Europe and North America. We use a regional chemistry-transport model to explore the observed changes and how changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions have contributed to the observed increasing trends. The model with yearly-dependent regional emissions successfully reproduces the levels, variability, and interannual variations of ozone at all the surface sites. It predicts increasing trends at the mountainous site, suggesting that increasing Asian anthropogenic emissions account for about half the observed increase. However, the discrepancy between the observation and model results after 2003 (the time of largest emission increase) suggests significant underestimation of the actual growth of the Asian anthropogenic emissions and/or incompleteness in the modeling of pollution export from continental Asia. These findings imply that improving emissions inventory and transport scheme is needed to better understand rapidly evolving tropospheric ozone in East Asia and its potential climatic and environmental impacts.

Forest Dragon-3: Decadal Trends of Northeastern Forests in China from Earth Observation Synergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmullius, C.; Balling, J.; Schratz, P.; Thiel, C.; Santoro, M.; Wegmuller, U.; Li, Z.; Yong, P.

2016-08-01

In Forest DRAGON 3, synergy of Earth Observation products to derive information of decadal trends of forest in northeast China was investigated. Following up the results of Forest-DRAGON 1 and 2, Growing Stock Volume (GSV) products from different years were investigated to derive information on vegetational in north- east China. The BIOMASAR maps of 2005 and 2010, produced within the previous DRAGON projects, set the base for all analyses. We took a closer look at scale problems regarding GSV derivation, which are introduced by differing landcover within one pixel, to investigate differences throughout pixel classes with varying landcover class percentages. We developed an approach to select pixels containing forest only with the aim of undertaking a detailed analysis on retrieved GSV values for such pixels for the years 2005 and 2010. Using existing land cover products at different scales, the plausibility of changes in the BIOMASAR maps were checked.

Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

PubMed

Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

2014-01-21

Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Valverde, José Rubio; Artnik, Barbara; Bopp, Matthias; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Deboosere, Patrick; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovács, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Menvielle, Gwenn; Regidor, Enrique; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Vineis, Paolo; White, Chris; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Hu, Yannan; Nusselder, Wilma J

2018-06-19

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Emerging trend prediction in biomedical literature.

PubMed

Moerchen, Fabian; Fradkin, Dmitriy; Dejori, Mathaeus; Wachmann, Bernd

2008-11-06

We present a study on how to predict new emerging trends in the biomedical domain based on textual data. We thereby propose a way of anticipating the transformation of arbitrary information into ground truth knowledge by predicting the inclusion of new terms into the MeSH ontology. We also discuss the preparation of a dataset for the evaluation of emerging trend prediction algorithms that is based on PubMed abstracts and related MeSH terms. The results suggest that early prediction of emerging trends is possible.

Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality

PubMed Central

Farmer, Robert G; Leonard, Marty L; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Anderson, Sean C

2014-01-01

Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible. PMID:25360286

The long term trend of carbon dioxide and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence over selected sites using GOSAT target observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, F.; Higuchi, R.; Kuze, A.; Shiomi, K.

2017-12-01

The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) is designed to measure the concentration of major greenhouse gases from space. GOSAT carry the Fourier-Transform Spectrometer, which have three shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands and one thermal infrared (TIR) band. The SWIR bands correspond to the O2A band (0.76 mm), weak-CO2 (1.6 mm) and strong-CO2 (2.0 mm). The SWIR bands observe the backscattered sunlight from surface and retrieve the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide and methane. The 0.76 mm band can also detect the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) using high spectral-resolution spectra in O2A band and solar absorption feature (Fraunhofer lines). GOSAT have operated more than 8 years and targeted various kinds of land-cover area (forest, grass, desert, etc.). The long term CO2 and SIF data set potential to address the rate of CO2 uptake through plant photosynthesis. In this work, we evaluated a trend and seasonal fluctuation components of CO2 and SIF using the liner and trigonometric functions fitting. We analyzed the amplitude and phase of the CO2 and SIF seasonal variation and anomalies over selected sites. Spatial distribution from target observation dataset which consist of 16 point per site using an agile pointing system over megacity is presented together with wind data. The data is available from the GOSAT trend viewer at http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/GOSAT/CO2_monitor/.

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kramer, Ryan J.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Wolfe, Robert E.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Imhoff, Marc L.; Thome, Kurtis; Noyce, Genevieve L.

2015-01-01

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Trends in first-line antiretroviral therapy in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database.

PubMed

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥ 6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003-2006 (n = 1419), 2007-2010 (n = 2690) and 2011-2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7-23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003-2006, 15.8 [14.9-16.8] in 2007-2010, and 11.6 [9.4-14.2] in 2011-2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33-0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011-2013 versus 2003-2006), older age (1.56 [1.19-2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥ 50 years versus <30 years), female sex (1.29 [1.11-1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06-1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28-20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and prescriber preferences over the past decade. These changes have contributed to a declining rate of

Global trends in ocean phytoplankton: a new assessment using revised ocean colour data.

PubMed

Gregg, Watson W; Rousseaux, Cécile S; Franz, Bryan A

2017-01-01

A recent revision of the NASA global ocean colour record shows changes in global ocean chlorophyll trends. This new 18-year time series now includes three global satellite sensors, the Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The major changes are radiometric drift correction, a new algorithm for chlorophyll, and a new sensor VIIRS. The new satellite data record shows no significant trend in global annual median chlorophyll from 1998 to 2015, in contrast to a statistically significant negative trend from 1998 to 2012 in the previous version. When revised satellite data are assimilated into a global ocean biogeochemical model, no trend is observed in global annual median chlorophyll. This is consistent with previous findings for the 1998-2012 time period using the previous processing version and only two sensors (SeaWiFS and MODIS). Detecting trends in ocean chlorophyll with satellites is sensitive to data processing options and radiometric drift correction. The assimilation of these data, however, reduces sensitivity to algorithms and radiometry, as well as the addition of a new sensor. This suggests the assimilation model has skill in detecting trends in global ocean colour. Using the assimilation model, spatial distributions of significant trends for the 18-year record (1998-2015) show recent decadal changes. Most notable are the North and Equatorial Indian Oceans basins, which exhibit a striking decline in chlorophyll. It is exemplified by declines in diatoms and chlorophytes, which in the model are large and intermediate size phytoplankton. This decline is partially compensated by significant increases in cyanobacteria, which represent very small phytoplankton. This suggests the beginning of a shift in phytoplankton composition in these tropical and subtropical Indian basins.

Evaluating foodservice software: a suggested approach.

PubMed

Fowler, K D

1986-09-01

In an era of cost containment, the computer has become a viable management tool. Its use in health care has demonstrated accelerated growth in recent years, and a literature review supports an increased trend in this direction. Foodservice, which is a major cost center, is no exception to this predicted trend. Because software has proliferated, foodservice managers and dietitians are experiencing growing concern about how to evaluate the numerous software packages from which to choose. A suggested approach to evaluating software is offered to dietitians and managers alike to lessen the confusion in software selection and to improve the system satisfaction level post-purchase. Steps of the software evaluatory approach include: delineation of goals, assessment of needs, assignment of value weight factors, development of a vendor checklist, survey of vendors by means of the vendor checklist and elimination of inappropriate systems, thorough development of the request for proposal (RFP) for submission to the selected vendors, an analysis of the returned RFPs in terms of system features and cost factors, and selection of the system(s) for implementation.

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.

PubMed

Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W

1986-11-28

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited

PubMed Central

Pascual, M.; Ahumada, J. A.; Chaves, L. F.; Rodó, X.; Bouma, M.

2006-01-01

The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (warming) has been highly debated following a previous study reporting no evidence to support a trend in temperature. We revisit this result using the same temperature data, now updated to the present from 1950 to 2002 for four high-altitude sites in East Africa where malaria has become a serious public health problem. With both nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses, we find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites. To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions. This approach suggests that the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models. PMID:16571662

Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

1989-01-01

The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

Association between carbohydrate quality and inflammatory markers: systematic review of observational and interventional studies.

PubMed

Buyken, Anette E; Goletzke, Janina; Joslowski, Gesa; Felbick, Anna; Cheng, Guo; Herder, Christian; Brand-Miller, Jennie C

2014-04-01

Chronic low-grade inflammation is a likely intermediary between quality of carbohydrate and chronic disease risk. We conducted a systematic literature search to evaluate the relevance of carbohydrate quality on inflammatory markers in observational and intervention studies. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies on associations between glycemic index (GI), glycemic load (GL), dietary fiber or fiber supplements or whole grain intake, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or interleukin 6 (IL-6). Included studies had to be conducted on adults (healthy, overweight, with type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome features, but without inflammatory disease) with ≥20 participants and a 3-wk duration. In total, 22 of the 60 studies that met our inclusion criteria examined GI/GL: 5 of 9 observational studies reported lower concentrations of hsCRP or IL-6 among persons with a lower dietary GI/GL; 3 of 13 intervention studies showed significant antiinflammatory effects of a low-GI/GL diet, and 4 further studies suggested beneficial effects (trends or effects in a subgroup). For fiber intake, 13 of 16 observational studies reported an inverse relation with hsCRP or IL-6, but only 1 of 11 intervention studies showed a significant antiinflammatory effect of fiber intake, and a further trial reported a beneficial trend. For whole-grain intake, 6 of 7 observational studies observed an inverse association with inflammatory markers, but only 1 of 7 intervention studies reported significant antiinflammatory effects, 1 further study was suggestive (in a subgroup) of such, and another study found an adverse effect (trend only). Evidence from intervention studies for antiinflammatory benefits is less consistent for higher-fiber or whole-grain diets than for low-GI/GL diets. Benefits of higher fiber and whole-grain intakes suggested by observational studies may reflect confounding.

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brune, William H.; Cox, R. Anthony; Turco, Richard; Brasseur, Guy P.; Matthews, W. Andrew; Zhou, Xiuji; Douglass, Anne; Zander, Rudi J.; Prendez, Margarita; Rodriguez, Jose M.

1991-01-01

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

O3 variability/trends in the troposphere from IASI observations in 2008-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, C.; Hurtmans, D.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard the Metop satellites during the first ten years of the IASI operation (2008-2017). The instrument provides a unique dataset of vertically-resolved O3 profiles with a twice daily global coverage and a fairly good vertical resolution allowing us to monitor the year-to-year variability in the troposphere. The retrievals are performed using the FORLI software, a fast radiative transfer model based on the optimal estimation method, set up for near real time and large scale processing of IASI data. We differentiate trend characteristics from the seasonal and non-seasonal O3 variations captured by IASI in the troposphere by applying appropriate annual and seasonal multivariate regression models, which include important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. quasi biennial oscillations - QBO, El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) and a linear trend term, on time series of spatially gridded averaged O3. The performances of the regression models (annual vs seasonal) are first investigated. Given the large contribution of the interannual variability, we will then describe the effects of the main contributing O3 proxies (e.g. positive - or negatives - ENSO indexes measured during moderate to intense El Niño - or La Niña - episodes in the tropics) in addition to the adjusted O3 trend patterns. A special focus will be given over the Northern Hemisphere which is characterized by decreasing O3 precursor emissions (mainly over Europe and the US). FORLI O3-CO correlations patterns will also be discussed to evaluate the continental influence on the tropospheric O3 trends.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Precipitation trends in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, Ricardo; Gallego, David; Hernández, Emiliano; Gimeno, Luis; Ribera, Pedro; Calvo, Natalia

2003-02-01

A strong decreasing trend in the Canary Islands' precipitation is detected by studying daily rainfall time series for the second half of the 20th century. An analysis of the extreme events shows that this trend is due mainly to a decrease in the upper percentiles of the precipitation distribution. The results suggest that local factors play a fundamental role on extreme event behaviour.

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study

PubMed Central

Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-01-01

Objective To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Design Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Setting Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. Population All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Main outcome measures Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). Results During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Conclusion Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health. PMID:21325004

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study.

PubMed

Hacking, John M; Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-02-15

To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health.

Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2015-04-01

with global datasets can provide some indication on biases. Compared to the global BEST dataset for the same countries, the national datasets of Austria, Italy and Switzerland have a 0.36°C per century stronger trend since 1901. For the trend since 1960 we can also take Australia, France and Slovenia into account and find a trend bias of 0.40°C per century. Relative to CRUCY the trend biases are smaller and only statistically significant for the period since 1980. The most direct way to study biases in the temperature records is by making parallel measurements with historical measurement set-ups. Several recent parallel data studies for the transition to Stevenson screens suggest larger biases: Austria 0.2°C, Spain 0.5 & 0.6°C. As well as older tropical ones: India 0.42°C and Sri Lanka 0.37°C. The smaller values from the Parker (1994) review mainly stem from parallel measurements from North-West Europe, which may have less problems with exposure. Furthermore, the influence of many historical transitions, especially the ones that could cause an artificial smaller trend, have not been studied in detail yet. We urgently need to study improvements of exposure (especially in the (sub-)tropics), increases in watering and irrigation, mechanical ventilation, better paints, relocations to airports, and relocations to suburbs of stations that started in the cities and from village centers to pasture, for example. Our current understanding surprisingly suggests that the more recent period may have the largest biases, but it could also be that even the best datasets are unable to improve earlier data sufficiently. If the temperature trend were actually larger it would reduce discrepancies between studies for a number of problems in climatology. For example, the estimates of transient climate sensitivity using instrumental data are lower as the one using climate models, volcanic eruptions or paleo data. Furthermore, several changes observed in the climate system are larger

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateer, C. L.; Dütsch, H. U.; Staehelin, J.; Deluisi, J. J.

1996-07-01

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long-term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time-dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair-weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time-dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

Global trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

1990-01-01

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Population Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, W. Parker

1980-01-01

Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability.

PubMed

Rodell, M; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Reager, J T; Beaudoing, H K; Landerer, F W; Lo, M-H

2018-05-01

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002-2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world's water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Observed SWE trends and climate analysis for Northwest Pacific North America: validation for future projection of SWE using the CRCM and VIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Bronaugh, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

2008-12-01

Observational databases of snow water equivalent (SWE) have been collected from Alaska, western US states and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and territories of NWT, and the Yukon. These databases were initially validated to remove inconsistencies and errors in the station records, dates or the geographic co-ordinates of the station. The cleaned data was then analysed for historical (1950 to 2006) trend using emerging techniques for trend detection based on (first of the month) estimates for January to June. Analysis of SWE showed spatial variability in the count of records across the six month time period, and this study illustrated differences between Canadian and US (or the north and south) collection. Two different data sets (one gridded and one station) were then used to analyse April 1st records, for which there was the greatest spatial spread of station records for analysis with climate information. Initial results show spatial variability (in both magnitude and direction of trend) for trend results, and climate correlations and principal components indicate different drivers of change in SWE across the western US, Canada and north to Alaska. These results will be used to validate future predictions of SWE that are being undertaken using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model for Western Northern America (CRCM) and British Columbia (VIC).

Trends in measurement of solar vector magnetic fields using the Zeeman effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, J. W.

1985-01-01

Trends in spectropolarimetry as applied to the problem of Zeeman effect measurement are discussed. The use of detector arrays to improve observing efficiency is obtained. Which required new polarization modulation schemes that match the time required to read detector arrays. Another significant trend is narrowband filters, to improve angular and temporal coverage, and to Fourier transform spectrometers, to improve spectral coverage and precision. Low-polarization designs and improved methods for compensating instrumental polarization were developed. A requirement for high angular resolution suggests using adaptive optical devices to subdue the effects of bad seeing. The ultimate strategy to beat the seeing is to loft the telescope above the atmosphere such as is planned with a 30-cm telescope in 1985 and a 1250-cm telescope in 1990.

27 Years of Satellite Ozone Data: Merging of Data Records from Multiple Instruments to Observe Global Trends and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.

2007-01-01

Satellite measurements provide a unique global view of the stratospheric ozone layer. The perspective from satellites allowed for the early mapping of the extent of the phenomenon that became known as the ozone hole. The use of the satellite data for global trends outside of the ozone hole confronts the problem of the possible drift of the calibration of the instrument. The TOMS and SBUV instruments on Nimbus 7 lasted for more than a decade. During that time, the diffuser plate used to reflect sunlight into the measurement degraded (darkened) and the instruments each had a number of events that made calibration determination difficult. Initially the TOMS data were used for global trends by adjusting the overall calibration to agree with a set of ground-based measurement stations. But this was unsatisfactory because the record was not independent of those ground measurements and problems were found in many of the ground stations by using TOMS as a transfer standard. After many years of dedicated work, the TOMS/SBUV team learned how to correct for instrument drift, remove the interfering effects of aerosols, and establish instrument-to-instrument calibrations resulting in a long-term record that can be used for accurate trend and recovery determination. The global view of the satellites allows for determination not only of temporal change in ozone, but spatial fingerprints that allow more confidence in assigning cause to observed changes.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

1991-01-01

Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Assessment of observed fog/low-cloud trends in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Yen-Jen; Lin, Po-Hsiung

2017-04-01

Xitou region, as the epitome of mid-elevation cloud forest ecosystems in Taiwan, it possesses a rich diversity of flora and fauna. It is also a popular forest recreation area. Due to rapid development of the local tourist industry, where tourist numbers increased from 0.3 million/year in 2000 to 2 million/year in 2015, the microclimate has changed continually. Global warming and landscape changes would be also the most likely factors. This study reports findings of monitoring systems including 4 visibility observed sites at different altitude, a self-developed atmospheric profile observation system carried by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a high temporal cloud base height observation system by a ceilometer. Besides this, the cloud top height of MODIS cloud product is evaluated as well. The results indicated the foggy day ratio in 2015 was 24% lower than that in 2005 around the district of the nursery. The foggy day ratio raised along with the increase of altitude and the sharpest increasing range happened in the summer time. The UAV-observed results showed the top heights of the nighttime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) usually happened under 1300m a.s.l. (250m above ground) and the top heights of daytime ABL rose to 1500m - 2100m a.s.l. Unfortunately, it was difficult to observe the inversion layer/ABL in summer due to the fly height limitation of UAV. The ceilometer-observed results indicated the highest foggy ratio happened around 17:00 (local standard time). The daytime cloudy based height ratio was higher than nighttime and the cloud based height was usually located during 1150m - 1750m a.s.l. which was under the top heights of ABL. In addition, the higher cloud-based-heights-happened ratios were found at 1200m - 1250m a.s.l. and 1350m - 1400m a.s.l.. These results indicated the cloud based height uplifted from ground to at least 150m above ground-level causing the foggy ratio decrease. The MODIS cloud product showed the top height of low cloud uplifted

Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Frankenberg, Christian; George, Maya; Nichitiu, Florian; Worden, John; Aben, Ilse; Bowman, Kevin; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-Francois; de Laat, Jos; Warner, Juying; Drummond, James; Edwards, David; Gille, John; Hurtmans, Daniel; Ming, Luo; Martinez-Alonso, Sara; Massie, Steven; Pfister, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) distributions are controlled by anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, chemical production, transport and oxidation by reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Quantifying trends in CO is therefore important for understanding changes related to all of these contributions. Here we present a comprehensive record of satellite observations from 2000 through 2011 of total column CO using the available measurements from nadir-viewing thermal infrared instruments: MOPITT, AIRS, TES and IASI. We examine trends for CO in the Northern and Southern hemispheres along with regional trends for E. China, E. USA, Europe and India. Measurement and sampling methods for each of the instruments are discussed, and we show diagnostics for systematic errors in MOPITT trends. We find that all the satellite observations are consistent with a modest decreasing trend around -1%/year in total column CO over the Northern hemisphere for this time period. Decreasing trends in total CO column are observed for the United States, Europe and E. China with more than 2σ significance. For India, the trend is also decreasing, but smaller in magnitude and less significant. Decreasing trends in surface CO have also been observed from measurements in the U.S. and Europe. Although less information is available for surface CO in China, there is a decreasing trend reported for Beijing. Some of the interannual variability in the observations can be explained by global fire emissions, and there may be some evidence of the global financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009. But the overall decrease needs further study to understand the implications for changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Trends in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Asia: Results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database

PubMed Central

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Methods Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Results Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003–2006 (n = 1419), 2007–2010 (n = 2690) and 2011–2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7–23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003–2006, 15.8 [14.9–16.8] in 2007–2010, and 11.6 [9.4–14.2] in 2011–2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33–0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011–2013 versus 2003–2006), older age (1.56 [1.19–2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥50 years versus <30years), female sex (1.29 [1.11–1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06–1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28–20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). Conclusions The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Temperature trend biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2016-04-01

In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Salinity trends in the Ebro River (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Gonzalez, M.° Angeles; Isidoro, Daniel; Quilez, Dolores

2016-04-01

In the Ebro River Basin (Spain), the increase in water diversion for irrigation (following the increase in irrigated area) and the recovery of natural vegetation in the upper reaches, along with climate change have induced changes in the river flow and its associated salt loads. This study was supported by the Ebro River Basin Administration (CHE) and aimed to establish the trends in the salt concentrations and loads of the Ebro River at Tortosa (no 027, the extreme downstream gauging station). The CHE databases from 1972-73 to 2011-12, including mean monthly flows (Q) and concentration readings (electrical conductivity converted to total dissolved solids -TDS- by regression) from monthly grab samples, have been used. The trends were established by (i) harmonic regression analysis; (ii) linear regression by month; and (iii) the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Additionally, (iv) the regressions of TDS on Q in the current and previous months were established, allowing for analyzing separately the trends in TDS linked to- (TDSq) and independent of- (TDSaj) the observed changes in flow. In all cases, the trends were analyzed for different periods within the full span 1973-2012 (1973 to 2012, 1981 to 2012, 1990-2012 and 2001-2012), trying to account for periods with sensibly similar patterns of land use change. An increase in TDS was found for all the periods analyzed that was lower as shorter periods were used, suggesting that lower salinity changes might be taking place in the last years, possibly due to the reduction in the rate of irrigation development and to the on-going irrigation modernization process. The higher seasonal TDS increases were found in autumn and winter months and the increase in TDS was linked both to intrinsic changes in salinity (TDSaj) and to the observed decrease in flow (TDSq). On the other hand, the salt loads decreased, especially in autumn, as a result of the observed flow decrease. These results are based on the observed evolution of

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 1; Long-term Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara e.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena F.

2010-01-01

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of

The use and trends of information and communication technology (ICT) during middle childhood.

PubMed

Louw, Anet E; Winter, Melanie

2011-06-01

Information and communication technologies (ICT) have become an integral part of people's lives. Trends suggest that the age when technology is used for the first time is rapidly decreasing and that children are exposed to ICT daily. However, the focus of the existing research has been on adolescents, and there is a dearth of knowledge about the use of ICT amongst children in middle childhood in South Africa. The objective of this study was to address this issue. The research participants included 12 children aged between 6 and 12 years old from two private schools (a boys' school and a girls' school) in the Gauteng region. A phenomenological approach was used to explore the use and trends of ICT among this age group. A semi-structured interview approach was employed for the data collection and each interview was tape-recorded and transcribed by the researcher. The Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to analyse and interpret the data collected. Various themes were identified. While all the participants had been exposed to and used ICT, a clear developmental trend was observed: not only were younger children less sophisticated users of ICT, but they were also less informed about the dangers of ICT usage. The participants were generally not supervised but some rules were implemented by the parents. Although the children did not experience cyber bullying, they did report exposure to pornography. The results suggest various implications for developmental trends and protection of children.

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Quantifying stratospheric ozone trends: Complications due to stratospheric cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLinden, C. A.; Fioletov, V.

2011-02-01

Recent studies suggest that ozone turnaround (the second stage of ozone recovery) is near. Determining precisely when this occurs, however, will be complicated by greenhouse gas-induced stratospheric cooling as ozone trends derived from profile data in different units and/or vertical co-ordinates will not agree. Stratospheric cooling leads to simultaneous trends in air density and layer thicknesses, confounding the interpretation of ozone trends. A simple model suggests that instruments measuring ozone in different units may differ as to the onset of turnaround by a decade, with some indicting a continued decline while others an increase. This concept was illustrated by examining the long-term (1979-2005) ozone trends in the SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) and SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) time series. Trends from SAGE, which measures number density as a function of altitude, and SBUV, which measures partial column as a function of pressure, are known to differ by 4-6%/decade in the upper stratosphere. It is shown that this long-standing difference can be reconciled to within 2%/decade when the trend in temperature is properly accounted for.

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Quan, H; Capizzi, T

1999-06-01

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis

2017-05-01

Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multidecadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied, and the resultant oxygen anomaly field is used to quantify upper ocean O2 trends at global and hemispheric scales. A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. Ocean reanalysis data are used to evaluate relationships with changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and oxygen solubility (O2,sat). Global O2 decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC. The global upper ocean O2 inventory (0-1000 m) changed at the rate of -243 ± 124 T mol O2 per decade. Further, the O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the OHC (r = -0.86; 0-1000 m) and the regression coefficient of O2 to OHC is approximately -8.2 ± 0.66 nmol O2 J-1, on the same order of magnitude as the simulated O2-heat relationship typically found in ocean climate models. Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization component with relatively small contributions from O2,sat. This indicates that changing ocean circulation, mixing, and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O2 changes. The spatial patterns of the multidecadal trend include regions of enhanced ocean deoxygenation including the subpolar North Pacific, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and tropical oxygen minimum zones. Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O2 trends and their regional expressions.

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer—Olympians and supercentenarians—under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic “probabilistic barrier” limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast. PMID:25143003

Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

2018-01-01

We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

PubMed

Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

[Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

2013-10-01

To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Trends in Overweight and Obesity in Czech Schoolchildren from 1998 to 2014.

PubMed

Hamřík, Zdeněk; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Pavelka, Jan; Kalman, Michal; Sigmund, Erik

2017-07-01

Overweight and obesity in adolescents is associated with many health risks and considerable direct and indirect healthcare costs. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 11-, 13- and 15-year-old adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2014. Data from five self-reported survey rounds (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study (HBSC) were used to assess trends in overweight and obesity among Czech adolescents. The total sample consisted of 19,103 adolescents (51.2% girls). A logistic regression analysis was used to assess trends in different age and gender categories. From 1998 to 2014 a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed among boys in all age categories (11 years old 22.2% 1998 - 28.3% 2014 ; 13 years old 17.9% 1998 - 26.7% 2014 ; 15 years old 9.8% 1998 - 20.8% 2014 ) and among 15-year-old girls (6.0% 1998 - 10.9% 2014 ). None of the age and gender categories showed an overall decrease over the 16-year period. In boys, the prevalence of overweight was significantly higher with steeper negative trends compared with girls. However, stabilization in overweight rates was observed between 2010 and 2014 in all age and gender groups. Nationally representative self-reported data show a significant increase in overweight (including obesity) prevalence among children from 1998 to 2014 in the Czech Republic. The results also suggest stabilization in overweight prevalence between 2010 and 2014. Continuing research is needed to determine future trends while interventions aimed at reducing overweight and obesity in children should be implemented on different levels of public policy. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Assessment of Precipitation Trends over Europe by Comparing ERA-20C with a New Homogenized Observational GPCC Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.

2015-12-01

Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit

Insight into global trends in aerosol composition from 2005 to 2015 inferred from the OMI Ultraviolet Aerosol Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammer, Melanie S.; Martin, Randall V.; Li, Chi; Torres, Omar; Manning, Max; Boys, Brian L.

2018-06-01

Observations of aerosol scattering and absorption offer valuable information about aerosol composition. We apply a simulation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index (UVAI), a method of detecting aerosol absorption from satellite observations, to interpret UVAI values observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from 2005 to 2015 to understand global trends in aerosol composition. We conduct our simulation using the vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT with aerosol fields from the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the 2005-2015 trends in individual aerosol species from GEOS-Chem and apply these trends to the UVAI simulation to calculate the change in simulated UVAI due to the trends in individual aerosol species. We find that global trends in the UVAI are largely explained by trends in absorption by mineral dust, absorption by brown carbon, and scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol. Trends in absorption by mineral dust dominate the simulated UVAI trends over North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and Australia. The UVAI simulation resolves observed negative UVAI trends well over Australia, but underestimates positive UVAI trends over North Africa and Central Asia near the Aral Sea and underestimates negative UVAI trends over East Asia. We find evidence of an increasing dust source from the desiccating Aral Sea that may not be well represented by the current generation of models. Trends in absorption by brown carbon dominate the simulated UVAI trends over biomass burning regions. The UVAI simulation reproduces observed negative trends over central South America and West Africa, but underestimates observed UVAI trends over boreal forests. Trends in scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol dominate the simulated UVAI trends over the eastern United States and eastern India. The UVAI simulation slightly overestimates the observed positive UVAI trends over the eastern United States and underestimates the observed negative UVAI trends over

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunkerton, Timothy J.

2000-01-01

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

Variability and Trends of Aerosol Properties over Kanpur, Northern India using AERONET Data (2001-10)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.; Singh, Ramesh.P.; Gautam, Ritesh; Sharma, Manish; Kosmopoulos, P. G.; Tripathi, S. N.

2012-01-01

Natural and anthropogenic aerosols over northern India play an important role in influencing the regional radiation budget, causing climate implications to the overall hydrological cycle of South Asia. In the context of regional climate change and air quality, we discuss aerosol loading variability and trends at Kanpur AERONET station located in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), during the last decade (2001-10). Ground-based radiometric measurements show an overall increase in column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) on a yearly basis. This upward trend is mainly due to a sustained increase in the seasonal/monthly averaged AOD during the winter (Dec-Feb) and post-monsoon (Oct-Nov) seasons (dominated by anthropogenic emissions). In contrast, a neutral to weak declining trend is observed during late pre-monsoon (Mar-May) and monsoon (Jun-Sep) months, mainly influenced by inter-annual variations of dust outbreaks. A general decrease in coarse-mode aerosols associated with variable dust activity is observed, whereas the statistically significant increasing post-monsoon/winter AOD is reflected in a shift of the columnar size distribution towards relatively larger particles in the accumulation mode. Overall, the present study provides an insight into the pronounced seasonal behavior in aerosol loading trends and, in general, is in agreement with that associating the findings with those recently reported by satellite observations (MODIS and MISR) over northern India. Our results further suggest that anthropogenic emissions (due mainly to fossil-fuel and biomass combustion) over the IGP have continued to increase in the last decade.

Identification and Quantification of Regional Aerosol Trends and Impact on Clouds Over the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongeward, Andrew R.

Aerosols and clouds contribute to atmospheric variability and Earth's radiative balance across local, regional, and global scales. Originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources, aerosols can cause adverse health effects and can interact directly with solar radiation as well as indirectly through complex interactions with clouds. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been observed from satellite platforms for over 30 years. During this time, regional changes in emissions, arising from air quality policies and socioeconomic factors, have been suggested as causes for some observed AOD trends. In the United States, the Clean Air Act and amendments have produced improvements in air quality. In this work the impacts of improved air quality on the aerosol loading and aerosol direct and indirect effects over the North Atlantic Ocean are explored using satellite, ground, and model datasets on the monthly timescale during 2002 to 2012. It is established that two trends exist in the total AOD observed by MODIS over the North Atlantic. A decreasing AOD trend between ?0.02 and ?0.04 per decade is observed over the mid-latitude region. Using the GOCART aerosol model it is shown that this trend results from decreases in anthropogenic species. Ground based aerosol networks (AERONET and IMPROVE) support a decreasing trend in AOD and further strengthen links to anthropogenic aerosol species, particularly sulfate species. This anthropogenic decrease occurs primarily during spring and summer. During the same time period, MODIS also observes an increasing AOD trend of 0.02 per decade located in the sub-tropical region. This trend is shown to occur during summer and is the result of natural dust aerosol. Changes in the North African environment seen in the MERRA reanalysis suggest an accelerated warming over the Saharan Desert leads to changes in the African Easterly Jet, related Easterly Waves, and baroclinicity playing a role in an increase and northward shift in African dust

Modeled and observed ozone sensitivity to mobile-source emissions in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, M.; Lei, W.; Molina, M. J.; Molina, L. T.

2009-01-01

The emission characteristics of mobile sources in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) have changed significantly over the past few decades in response to emission control policies, advancements in vehicle technologies and improvements in fuel quality, among others. Along with these changes, concurrent non-linear changes in photochemical levels and criteria pollutants have been observed, providing a unique opportunity to understand the effects of perturbations of mobile emission levels on the photochemistry in the region using observational and modeling approaches. The observed historical trends of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) suggest that ozone production in the MCMA has changed from a low to a high VOC-sensitive regime over a period of 20 years. Comparison of the historical emission trends of CO, NOx and hydrocarbons derived from mobile-source emission studies in the MCMA from 1991 to 2006 with the trends of the concentrations of CO, NOx, and the CO/NOx ratio during peak traffic hours also indicates that fuel-based fleet average emission factors have significantly decreased for CO and VOCs during this period whereas NOx emission factors do not show any strong trend, effectively reducing the ambient VOC/NOx ratio. This study presents the results of model analyses on the sensitivity of the observed ozone levels to the estimated historical changes in its precursors. The model sensitivity analyses used a well-validated base case simulation of a high pollution episode in the MCMA with the mathematical Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) and the standard Brute Force Method (BFM) in the 3-D CAMx chemical transport model. The model reproduces adequately the observed historical trends and current photochemical levels. Comparison of the BFM and the DDM sensitivity techniques indicates that the model yields ozone values that increase linearly with NOx emission reductions and decrease linearly with VOC emission reductions only up to 30% from the

Modeled and observed ozone sensitivity to mobile-source emissions in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, M.; Lei, W. F.; Molina, M. J.; Molina, L. T.

2008-08-01

The emission characteristics of mobile sources in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) have changed significantly over the past few decades in response to emission control policies, advancements in vehicle technologies and improvements in fuel quality, among others. Along with these changes, concurrent non-linear changes in photochemical levels and criteria pollutants have been observed, providing a unique opportunity to understand the effects of perturbations of mobile emission levels on the photochemistry in the region using observational and modeling approaches. The observed historical trends of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) suggest that ozone production in the MCMA has changed from a low to a high VOC-sensitive regime over a period of 20 years. Comparison of the historical emission trends of CO, NOx and hydrocarbons derived from mobile-source emission studies in the MCMA from 1991 to 2006 with the trends of the concentrations of CO, NOx, and the CO/NOx ratio during peak traffic hours also indicates that fuel-based fleet average emission factors have significantly decreased for CO and VOCs during this period whereas NOx emission factors do not show any strong trend, effectively reducing the ambient VOC/NOx ratio. This study presents the results of model analyses on the sensitivity of the observed ozone levels to the estimated historical changes in its precursors. The model sensitivity analyses used a well-validated base case simulation of a high pollution episode in the MCMA with the mathematical Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) and the standard Brute Force Method (BFM) in the 3-D CAMx chemical transport model. The model reproduces adequately the observed historical trends and current photochemical levels. Comparison of the BFM and the DDM sensitivity techniques indicates that the model yields ozone values that increase linearly with NOx emission reductions and decrease linearly with VOC emission reductions only up to 30% from the

Trends in College Spending: 2001-2011. A Delta Data Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desrochers, Donna M.; Hurlburt, Steven

2014-01-01

This "Trends in College Spending" update presents national-level estimates for the "Delta Cost Project" data metrics during the period 2001-11. To accelerate the release of more current trend data, however, this update includes only a brief summary of the financial patterns and trends observed during the decade 2001-11, with…

Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

Why the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind changes trend in the mid -1990s?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, P.

2016-12-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis data especially monthly mean of geopotential from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role..

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Rater Drift and Time Trends in Classroom Observations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.

2013-01-01

Classroom observation protocols, in which observers rate multiple dimensions of teaching according to established protocols (either live in the classroom, or post-hoc from lesson videos), are increasingly being used in both research and policy contexts. However, scores generated from these protocols have many sources of error. Day to day variation…

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Trends in the Information Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogan, Thomas H.

1987-01-01

The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

Prescription drug advertising: trends and implications.

PubMed

Krupka, L R; Vener, A M

1985-01-01

Prescription drug advertisements which appeared in two leading American medical journals in 1972, 1977 and 1982 were analyzed to discover possible trends in advertising. The 5016 ads examined showed that ads for the diuretic-cardiovasculars, especially the beta-adrenergic blocking agents and the slow channel inhibitors, as well as the analgesics, had increased, while ads for the anti-infectives and tranquilizers had diminished. The average amount of space allocated for each ad had increased. On the average, most ads (69%) depicted neither male nor female patients in their graphics, and a trend of increased neutrality was observed. When the hormones were excluded, an average of 21% of the ads showed male patients and 10% showed females. Since a relationship was discerned between the leading drugs advertised and the leading prescriptions filled, it was concluded that advertising does have some effect on the prescribing behavior of practitioners. The findings suggest that great investment in advertising is necessary in order to achieve high levels of sales for such drugs as Valium (diazepam) which do not have a clear-cut ameliorative effect on a specific physiological condition. On the other hand, it was suggested that saturation advertising would not significantly enhance the sales of such drugs as Dyazide (triamterene and hydrochlorothiazide) because of its well established therapeutic value in the control of hypertension. Ten advertising companies, on the average, had purchased 67% of all advertising space and five had purchased almost half (47%). The same two pharmaceutical companies were among the top five advertisers and the same five were among the top ten for the three years studied.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chanin, M.-L.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Gaffen, D.; Gelman, M.; Keckhut, P.; Koshelkov, Y.; Labitzke, K.; Lin, J.-J. R.

1999-01-01

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

DOE PAGES

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; ...

2015-04-26

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variabilitymore » in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.« less

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Trends In Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations and Loads In Major River Basins of the South-Central United States, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, Richard A.; Demcheck, Dennis K.

2008-01-01

sites and increased at14 sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen decreased at 2 sites and increased at 12 sites. Improvements to municipal wastewater treatment facilities contributed to the decline of ammonia concentrations at selected sites. Notable increasing trends in nitrite plus nitrate and total nitrogen at selected study sites were attributed to both point and nonpointsources. Trend patterns in total nitrogen generally followed trend patterns in nitrite plus nitrate, which was understandable given that nitrite plus nitrate loads generally were 70-90 percent of the total nitrogen loads at most sites. Population data were used as a surrogate to understand the relation between changes in point sources and nutrient trends because data from wastewater treatment plants were inconsistent for this study area. Although population increased throughout the study area during the study period, there was no observed relation between increasing trends in nitrogen in study area streams and increasing trends in population. With respect to other nitrogen sources, statistical results did suggest that increasing trends in nitrogen could be related to increasing trends in nitrogen from either commercial fertilizer use and/or land application of manure. Loads of ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, and total nitrogen decreased during the study period, but some trends in nitrogen loads were part of long-term decreases since 1980. For example, ammonia loads were shown to decrease at nearly all sites over the past decade, but at selected sites, these decreasing trends were part of much longer trends since 1980. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers contributed the highest nitrogen loads to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as expected; however, nitrogen yields from smaller rivers had similar or higher yields than yields from the Mississippi River. Trend tests were completed for orthophosphorus at 34 sites and for total phosphorus at 52 sites. No trends were observed in abo

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

Trends in characteristics of daily rainfall in Northern Iberia: Is the NAO signal behind the observed variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saez de Cámara, E.; Gangoiti, G.; Alonso, L.; Iza, J.

2012-04-01

A trend analysis of intensity and frequency of daily precipitation over Northern Iberia (NIB), with a primary focus on extreme events, is presented. It is based on 14 NOAA-NCDC daily records covering the last 35 years (1973-2007) plus two centenarian databases sited in eastern NIB: San Sebastián (1929-2007) (daily resolution) and Bilbao (1857-2007) (monthly resolution). It is the first time that this interfacial region between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean has been studied with such a density of monitoring stations. Spatial and temporal characteristics and changes in rainfall's distribution have been analyzed using the suite of indices developed and recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). They include annual and seasonal accumulated precipitation, number of dry and rainy days, and mean precipitation per rainy day, among others. The observed trends have been tested for statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall's non-parametric test. Additionally, links between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the precipitation in the aforementioned region have been explored. The analysis shows a significant tendency towards less intensive rainy days for the whole region together with a decreasing trend in the number of wet days for the Central NIB. The consequence is a decline of total rainfall, statistically significant in Central and Eastern NIB. The evolution to drier conditions may be seen in both annual and seasonal indices. Conversely, strong regional differences have been found in the response to the NAO signal: whereas the rainfall decrease in the Western NIB might be associated to the dominance of a positive mode of the NAO during the last decades, the lack of correlation between the NAO signal and the observed precipitation in the stations with significant decreases rises an important argument against a direct association. Using the global gridded 6-hourly NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data (1979-2010) we

Impacts of land cover changes on climate trends in Jiangxi province China.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Riemann, Dirk; Vogt, Steffen; Glaser, Rüdiger

2014-07-01

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is an important climatic force, and is also affected by climate change. In the present study, we aimed to assess the regional scale impact of LULC on climate change using Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. To obtain reliable climate trends, we applied the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) to surface air temperature and precipitation data for the period 1951-1999. We also compared the temperature trends computed from Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) datasets and from our analysis. To examine the regional impacts of land surface types on surface air temperature and precipitation change integrating regional topography, we used the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. Precipitation series were found to be homogeneous. Comparison of GHCN and our analysis on adjusted temperatures indicated that the resulting climate trends varied slightly from dataset to dataset. OMR trends associated with surface vegetation types revealed a strong surface warming response to land barrenness and weak warming response to land greenness. A total of 81.1% of the surface warming over vegetation index areas (0-0.2) was attributed to surface vegetation type change and regional topography. The contribution of surface vegetation type change decreases as land cover greenness increases. The OMR precipitation trend has a weak dependence on surface vegetation type change. We suggest that LULC integrating regional topography should be considered as a force in regional climate modeling.

The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

2017-06-01

In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

2012-01-01

The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

2017-02-01

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, Don

2016-04-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, D. P.

2016-02-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Do males pay for sex? Sex-specific selection coefficients suggest not.

PubMed

Prokop, Zofia M; Prus, Monika A; Gaczorek, Tomasz S; Sychta, Karolina; Palka, Joanna K; Plesnar-Bielak, Agata; Skarboń, Magdalena

2017-03-01

Selection acting on males can reduce mutation load of sexual relative to asexual populations, thus mitigating the twofold cost of sex, provided that it seeks and destroys the same mutations as selection acting on females, but with higher efficiency. This could happen due to sexual selection-a potent evolutionary force that in most systems predominantly affects males. We used replicate populations of red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) to study sex-specific selection against deleterious mutations introduced with ionizing radiation. We found no evidence for selection being stronger in males than in females; in fact, we observed a nonsignificant trend in the opposite direction. This suggests that selection on males does not reduce mutation load below the level expected under the (hypothetical) scenario of asexual reproduction. Additionally, we employed a novel approach, based on a simple model, to quantify the relative contributions of sexual and offspring viability selection to the overall selection observed in males. We found them to be similar in magnitude; however, only the offspring viability component was statistically significant. In summary, we found no support for the hypothesis that selection on males in general, and sexual selection in particular, contributes to the evolutionary maintenance of sex. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Zelinka, Mark; Klein, Stephen A.; Bonfils, Celine; Caldwell, Peter; Doutriaux, Charles; Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.

2015-01-01

Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

Water-quality trends in the nation's rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Alexander, R.B.; Wolman, M.G.

1987-01-01

Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U.S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U. S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.

Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

Health Inequalities: Trends, Progress, and Policy

PubMed Central

Bleich, Sara N.; Jarlenski, Marian P.; Bell, Caryn N.; LaVeist, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

Health inequalities, which have been well documented for decades, have more recently become policy targets in developed countries. This review describes time trends in health inequalities (by sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status), commitments to reduce health inequalities, and progress made to eliminate health inequalities in the United States, United Kingdom, and other OECD countries. Time-trend data in the United States indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some health indicators, such as life expectancy, but a widening of the gap in others, such as diabetes prevalence. Similarly, time-trend data in the United Kingdom indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some indicators, such as hypertension prevalence, whereas the gap between social classes has increased for life expectancy. More research and better methods are needed to measure precisely the relationships between stated policy goals and observed trends in health inequalities. PMID:22224876

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

Atmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE-GAGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, R.; Cunnold, D.; Alyea, F.; Rasmussen, R.; Simmonds, P.

1990-01-01

Long-term measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) obtained during the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE) and the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE) for a period from 1978 to 1988 are presented and interpreted. It is observed that the average concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.75 +/- 0.16 ppbv higher than in the Southern Hemisphere and that the global average linear trend in N2O lies in the range from 0.25 to 0.31 percent/year. The measured trends and latitudinal distributions are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis that stratospheric photodissociation is the major atmospheric sink for N2O, while the cause of the N2O trend is suggested to be a combination of a growing tropical source and a growing Northern mid-latitude source. A 10-year average global N2O emission rate of (20.5 +/- 2.4) x 10 to the 12th g N2O/year is deduced from the ALE/GAGE data.

Assessment of Quercus flowering trends in NW Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jato, V.; Rodríguez-Rajo, F. J.; Fernandez-González, M.; Aira, M. J.

2015-05-01

This paper sought to chart airborne Quercus pollen counts over the last 20 years in the region of Galicia (NW Spain) with a view to detecting the possible influence of climate change on the Quercus airborne pollen season (APS). Pollen data from Ourense, Santiago de Compostela, Vigo and Lugo were used. The Quercus airborne pollen season was characterized in terms of the following parameters: pollen season start and end dates, peak pollen count, pollen season length and pollen index. Several methods, dates and threshold temperatures for determining the chill and heat requirements needed to trigger flowering were applied. A diverse APS onset timing sequence was observed for the four cities as Quercus flowers few days in advance in Vigo. The variations observed could be related to differences in the meteorological conditions or the thermal requirements needed for flowering. Thermal requirements differed depending on local climate conditions in the study cities: the lowest values for chilling accumulation were recorded in Vigo and the highest in Lugo, whereas the lowest heat accumulation was achieved in Vigo. Differences in APS trends between cities may reflect variations in weather-related trends. A significant trend towards rising Quercus pollen indices and higher maximum daily mean pollen counts was observed in Ourense, linked to the more marked temperature increase across southern Galicia. A non-uniform trend towards increased temperatures was noted over the study period, particularly in late summer and early autumn in all four study cities. Additionally, an increase in spring temperatures was observed in south-western Galicia.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Brownstein, John S; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-19

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations. PMID:28102319

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Trends in size of tropical deforestation events signal increasing dominance of industrial-scale drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Kemen G.; González-Roglich, Mariano; Schaffer-Smith, Danica; Schwantes, Amanda M.; Swenson, Jennifer J.

2017-05-01

Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr-1 in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr-1 in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium- and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring, and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

Trends in Ocean Irradiance using a Radiative Model Forced with Terra Aerosols and Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy; Romanou, Anastasia

2010-01-01

Aerosol and cloud information from MODIS on Terra provide enhanced capability to understand surface irradiance over the oceans and its variability. These relationships can be important for ocean biology and carbon cycles. An established radiative transfer model, the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is used to describe ocean irradiance variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. The model is forced with information on aerosols and clouds from the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. A 7-year record (2000-2006) showed no trends in global ocean surface irradiance or photosynthetic available irradiance (PAR). There were significant (P<0.05) negative trends in the Mediterranean Sea, tropical Pacific) and tropical Indian Oceans, of -7.0, -5.0 and -2.7 W/sq m respectively. Global interannual variability was also modest. Regional interannual variability was quite large in some ocean basins, where monthly excursions from climatology were often >20 W/sq m. The trends using MODIS data contrast with results from OASIM using liquid water path estimates from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Here, a global trend of -2 W/sq m was observed, largely dues to a large negative trend in the Antarctic -12 W/sq m. These results suggest the importance of the choice of liquid water path data sets in assessments of medium-length trends in ocean surface irradiance. The choices also impact the evaluation of changes in ocean biogeochemistry.

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone. Part 1; Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2008-01-01

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Information Technology: Perspectives and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Doug

The full impact of the current information technology and networking revolution remains unknown, but the experiences of organizations and individuals who are using the tools and resources offered by information technology suggest that it may change our social fabric. Some of the current and emerging trends in information technology include: the…

Observed and modeled seasonal trends in dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in a mining-impacted stream.

PubMed

Butler, Barbara A; Ranville, James F; Ross, Philippe E

2008-06-01

North Fork Clear Creek (NFCC) in Colorado, an acid-mine drainage (AMD) impacted stream, was chosen to examine the distribution of dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in the water column, with respect to seasonal hydrologic controls. NFCC is a high-gradient stream with discharge directly related to snowmelt and strong seasonal storms. Additionally, conditions in the stream cause rapid precipitation of large amounts of hydrous iron oxides (HFO) that sequester metals. Because AMD-impacted systems are complex, geochemical modeling may assist with predictions and/or confirmations of processes occurring in these environments. This research used Visual-MINTEQ to determine if field data collected over a two and one-half year study would be well represented by modeling with a currently existing model, while limiting the number of processes modeled and without modifications to the existing model's parameters. Observed distributions between dissolved and particulate phases in the water column varied greatly among the metals, with average dissolved fractions being >90% for Mn, approximately 75% for Zn, approximately 30% for Cu, and <10% for Fe. A strong seasonal trend was observed for the metals predominantly in the dissolved phase (Mn and Zn), with increasing concentrations during base-flow conditions and decreasing concentrations during spring-runoff. This trend was less obvious for Cu and Fe. Within hydrologic seasons, storm events significantly influenced in-stream metals concentrations. The most simplified modeling, using solely sorption to HFO, gave predicted percentage particulate Cu results for most samples to within a factor of two of the measured values, but modeling data were biased toward over-prediction. About one-half of the percentage particulate Zn data comparisons fell within a factor of two, with the remaining data being under-predicted. Slightly more complex modeling, which included dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a solution phase ligand

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

Trends in Perceived Access to Marijuana Among Adolescents in the United States: 2002-2015.

PubMed

Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Oh, Sehun; Goings, Trenette Clark; Vaughn, Michael G

2017-09-01

There is concern that changes in marijuana-related policy and public opinion may lead to increased access to marijuana among young people in the United States. However, little research has been conducted on changes in youth's perceptions of marijuana access, and studies have yet to systematically examine trends in perceived access across key sociodemographic and externalizing behavioral subgroups. Using population-based data collected between 2002 and 2015 as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we examined trends in perceived marijuana access among non-Hispanic White, African American, and Hispanic adolescents (ages 12-17, n = 221,412). Following the trend analysis method outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we conducted logistic regression analyses to test for secular trends. Between 2002 and 2015, we observed a 27% overall reduction in the relative proportion of adolescents ages 12-17-and a 42% reduction among those ages 12-14-reporting that it would be "very easy" to obtain marijuana. This pattern was uniformly observed among youth in all sociodemographic subgroups (i.e., across age, gender, race/ethnicity, household income) and among youth reporting involvement/no involvement in most measures of substance use (alcohol, marijuana) and delinquency (handgun carrying, attacks). However, perceived very easy access remained stable among youth reporting tobacco use and criminal justice system involvement. Despite the legalization of recreational and medical marijuana in some states, our findings suggest that, with the notable exception of adolescent tobacco users and juvenile offenders, perceptions that marijuana would be very easy to obtain are on the decline among American youth.

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

2014-05-01

Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John; Smith, Lesley

2005-06-01

An analysis and evaluation has been performed of global datasets on column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water). For years before 1996, the Ross and Elliott radiosonde dataset is used for validation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses ERA-40. Only the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) dataset from remote sensing systems (RSS) has credible means, variability and trends for the oceans, but it is available only for the post-1988 period. Major problems are found in the means, variability and trends from 1988 to 2001 for both reanalyses from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the ERA-40 reanalysis over the oceans, and for the NASA water vapor project (NVAP) dataset more generally. NCEP and ERA-40 values are reasonable over land where constrained by radiosondes. Accordingly, users of these data should take great care in accepting results as real. The problems highlight the need for reprocessing of data, as has been done by RSS, and reanalyses that adequately take account of the changing observing system. Precipitable water variability for 1988 2001 is dominated by the evolution of ENSO and especially the structures that occurred during and following the 1997 98 El Niño event. The evidence from SSM/I for the global ocean suggests that recent trends in precipitable water are generally positive and, for 1988 through 2003, average 0.40±0.09 mm per decade or 1.3±0.3% per decade for the ocean as a whole, where the error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Over the oceans, the precipitable water variability relates very strongly to changes in SSTs, both in terms of spatial structure of trends and temporal variability (with a regression coefficient for 30°N 30°S of 7.8% K-1) and is consistent with the assumption of fairly constant relative humidity. In the tropics, the trends are also influenced by changes in rainfall which, in turn, are closely associated with the mean flow and convergence of moisture

Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

2012-11-01

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and

Is there any trend change in wind speed in the mid- 1990s in the stratosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, Peter

2017-04-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric wind speed in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis monthly means of the geopotential height from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role.

Temporal Trends and Hydrological Controls of Fisheries Production in the Madeira River (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, D. A.; Lima, M. A.; Doria, C.

2016-12-01

Amazonian river systems are characterized by a strongly seasonal flood pulse and important hydrologic effects have been observed in the dynamics of fish stocks and fishing yields. Changes in the Amazon's freshwater ecosystems from hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects and impacts on fish and fisheries are expected to be potentially irreversible. In this work we investigate shared trends and causal factors driving fish catch in the Madeira River (a major tributary of the Amazon) before dam construction to derive relationships between catch and natural hydrologic dynamics. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis to investigate dynamics in fish catch across ten commercially important fish species in the Madeira River using daily fish landings data including species and total weight and daily hydrological data obtained from the Brazilian Geological Service. Total annual catch averaged over the 18-yr period (1990-2007) was 849 tons yr-1. Species with the highest catch included curimatã, dourada/filhote and pacu, highlighting the importance of medium and long-distance migratory species for fisheries production. We found a four-trend dynamic factor model (DFM) to best fit the observed data, assessed using the Akaike Information Criteria. Model goodness of fit was fair (R2=0.51) but highly variable across species (0.16 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95). Fitted trends exhibited strong and regular year-to-year variation representative of the seasonal hydrologic pulsing observed on the Madeira River. Next, we considered 11 candidate explanatory time series and found the best DFM used four explanatory variables and only one common trend. While the model fit with explanatory variables was lower (R2=0.31) it removed much reliance on unknown common trends. The most important explanatory variable in this model was maximum water level followed by days flooded, river flow of the previous year and increment. We found unique responses to hydrological

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout

2016-01-01

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Eliminating Age Differences in Children's and Adults' Suggestibility and Memory Conformity Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Otgaar, Henry; Howe, Mark L.; Brackmann, Nathalie; van Helvoort, Daniël H. J.

2017-01-01

We examined whether typical developmental trends in suggestion-induced false memories (i.e., age-related decrease) could be changed. Using theoretical principles from the spontaneous false memory field, we adapted 2 often-used false memory procedures: misinformation (Experiment 1) and memory conformity (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, 7- to…

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

Galaxy Zoo: Observing secular evolution through bars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheung, Edmond; Faber, S. M.; Koo, David C.

In this paper, we use the Galaxy Zoo 2 data set to study the behavior of bars in disk galaxies as a function of specific star formation rate (SSFR) and bulge prominence. Our sample consists of 13,295 disk galaxies, with an overall (strong) bar fraction of 23.6% ± 0.4%, of which 1154 barred galaxies also have bar length (BL) measurements. These samples are the largest ever used to study the role of bars in galaxy evolution. We find that the likelihood of a galaxy hosting a bar is anticorrelated with SSFR, regardless of stellar mass or bulge prominence. We findmore » that the trends of bar likelihood and BL with bulge prominence are bimodal with SSFR. We interpret these observations using state-of-the-art simulations of bar evolution that include live halos and the effects of gas and star formation. We suggest our observed trends of bar likelihood with SSFR are driven by the gas fraction of the disks, a factor demonstrated to significantly retard both bar formation and evolution in models. We interpret the bimodal relationship between bulge prominence and bar properties as being due to the complicated effects of classical bulges and central mass concentrations on bar evolution and also to the growth of disky pseudobulges by bar evolution. These results represent empirical evidence for secular evolution driven by bars in disk galaxies. This work suggests that bars are not stagnant structures within disk galaxies but are a critical evolutionary driver of their host galaxies in the local universe (z < 1).« less

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends

Secular trends in ischemic stroke subtypes and stroke risk factors.

PubMed

Bogiatzi, Chrysi; Hackam, Daniel G; McLeod, A Ian; Spence, J David

2014-11-01

Early diagnosis and treatment of a stroke improves patient outcomes, and knowledge of the cause of the initial event is crucial to identification of the appropriate therapy to maximally reduce risk of recurrence. Assumptions based on historical frequency of ischemic subtypes may need revision if stroke subtypes are changing as a result of recent changes in therapy, such as increased use of statins. We analyzed secular trends in stroke risk factors and ischemic stroke subtypes among patients with transient ischemic attack or minor or moderate stroke referred to an urgent transient ischemic attack clinic from 2002 to 2012. There was a significant decline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and blood pressure, associated with a significant decline in large artery stroke and small vessel stroke. The proportion of cardioembolic stroke increased from 26% in 2002 to 56% in 2012 (P<0.05 for trend). Trends remained significant after adjusting for population change. With more intensive medical management in the community, a significant decrease in atherosclerotic risk factors was observed, with a significant decline in stroke/transient ischemic attack caused by large artery atherosclerosis and small vessel disease. As a result, cardioembolic stroke/transient ischemic attack has increased significantly. Our findings suggest that more intensive investigation for cardiac sources of embolism and greater use of anticoagulation may be warranted. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Trends in upper gastrointestinal diagnosis over four decades in Lusaka, Zambia: a retrospective analysis of endoscopic findings.

PubMed

Kayamba, Violet; Sinkala, Edford; Mwanamakondo, Stayner; Soko, Rose; Kawimbe, Boniface; Amadi, Beatrice; Zulu, Isaac; Nzaisenga, Jean-Baptiste; Banda, Themba; Mumbwe, Chipasha; Phiri, Evans; Munkonge, Philip; Kelly, Paul

2015-10-06

There a shortage of robust information about profiles of gastrointestinal disease in sub-Saharan Africa. The endoscopy unit of the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka has been running without interruption since 1977 and this 38-year record is largely intact. We report an analysis of endoscopic findings over this period. Written endoscopy records from 29th September 1977 to 16th December 2014 were recovered, computerised, coded by two experienced endoscopists and analysed. Temporal trends were analysed using tables, graphs, and unconditional logistic regression, with age, sex of patient, decade, and endoscopist as independent variables to adjust for inter-observer variation. Sixteen thousand nine hundred fifty-three records were identified and analysed. Diagnosis of gastric ulcer rose by 22 %, and that of duodenal ulcer fell by 14 % per decade. Endoscopically diagnosed oesophageal cancer increased by 32 % per decade, but gastric cancer rose only in patients under 60 years of age (21 % per decade). Oesophageal varices were the commonest finding in patients presenting with haematemesis, increasing by 14 % per decade in that patient group. Two HIV-related diagnoses, oesophageal candidiasis and Kaposi's sarcoma, rose from almost zero to very high levels in the 1990s but fell substantially after 2005 when anti-retroviral therapy became widely available. This useful dataset suggests that there are important trends in some endoscopic findings over four decades. These trends are not explained by inter-observer variation. Reasons for the divergent trends in incidence of peptic ulceration and apparent trends in diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal cancers merit further exploration.

Antimicrobial resistance trends among Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States (2001-2013).

PubMed

Cummings, Kevin J; Perkins, Gillian A; Khatibzadeh, Sarah M; Warnick, Lorin D; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

2016-05-01

OBJECTIVE To describe the antimicrobial resistance patterns of Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to select antimicrobials over time. SAMPLE 462 Salmonella isolates from horses. PROCEDURES Retrospective data were collected for all Salmonella isolates obtained from equine specimens that were submitted to the Cornell University Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013. Temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant Salmonella isolates were investigated for each of 13 antimicrobials by use of the Cochran-Armitage trend test. RESULTS The prevalence of resistant isolates varied among antimicrobials and ranged from 0% (imipenem) to 51.5% (chloramphenicol). During the observation period, the prevalence of resistant isolates decreased significantly for amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ampicillin, cefazolin, cefoxitin, ceftiofur, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline and remained negligible for amikacin and enrofloxacin. Of the 337 isolates for which the susceptibility to all 13 antimicrobials was determined, 138 (40.9%) were pansusceptible and 192 (57.0%) were multidrug resistant (resistant to ≥ 3 antimicrobial classes). The most common serovar isolated was Salmonella Newport, and although the annual prevalence of that serovar decreased significantly over time, that decrease had only a minimal effect on the observed antimicrobial resistance trends. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that current antimicrobial use in horses is not promoting the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella strains in the region served by the laboratory.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

PubMed

Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

2011-08-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF- ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grasso, Lewis; Lindsey, Daniel T.; Lim, Kyo-Sun

Synthetic satellite imagery can be employed to evaluate simulated cloud fields. Past studies have revealed that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) microphysics in WRF-ARW produces less upper level ice clouds within synthetic images compared to observations. Synthetic Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-13 imagery at 10.7 μm of simulated cloud fields from the 4 km National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF-ARW is compared to observed GOES-13 imagery. Histograms suggest that too few points contain upper level simulated ice clouds. In particular, side-by-side examples are shown of synthetic and observed convective anvils. Such images illustrate the lackmore » of anvil cloud associated with convection produced by the NSSL WRF-ARW. A vertical profile of simulated hydrometeors suggests that too much cloud water mass may be converted into graupel mass, effectively reducing the main source of ice mass in a simulated anvil. Further, excessive accretion of ice by snow removes ice from an anvil by precipitation settling. Idealized sensitivity tests reveal that a 50% reduction of the conversion of cloud water mass to graupel and a 50% reduction of the accretion rate of ice by snow results in a significant increase in anvil ice of a simulated storm. Such results provide guidance as to which conversions could be reformulated, in a more physical manner, to increase simulated ice mass in the upper troposphere.« less

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

OMI NO2 in the Central US Great Plains: How Well Do We Interpret NO2 Trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollonige, D. E.; Duncan, B. N.; Thompson, A. M.; Lamsal, L. N.

2017-12-01

Several areas over the Central US show statistically significant increases in OMI NO2 levels of 10-30% in the last 10 years versus the generally decreasing trends over most of CONUS. Are these changes in OMI NO2 a result of human activity, meteorology, or a combination of both? To answer this, we examine regions in the Central US Great Plains that have multiple plausible sources for the observed trends, considering impacts of land surface changes, agriculture growth, oil and gas operations, and drought conditions. We find that changes to the land surface appear to contribute to some of the observed anomalies due to tree removal in the Black Hills National Forest, South Dakota, and additional livestock farming in the Sandhills of Nebraska. However, increasing OMI NO2 also corresponds to several areas with growing agriculture business (ex. South Dakota and Nebraska) and oil and gas activity (ex. Williston Basin in North Dakota and Permian Basin in TX). To understand the relationship between the observed NO2 variability and the regional meteorological conditions over the last decade, we analyze the time series and correlations between OMI NO2, NH3 (an agriculture tracer), surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Landsat, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In 2012, drought conditions affect NO2, NH3 and NDVI observations across the Central US. Areas where dryland farming and livestock grazing are predominant (Central SD, ND, KS, and NE) are less sensitive to drought and changes in temperature. This suggests positive OMI NO2 trends are caused by increased production in wheats and livestock in the Northern Great Plains. These study regions in the Central US, impacted by local emissions and meteorology, are valuable for evaluating future trend analyses including the continuation of OMI-type NO2 retrievals from the TROPOMI and TEMPO satellite instruments.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Trends and characteristics of animal-vehicle collisions in the United States.

PubMed

Sullivan, John M

2011-02-01

Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness. AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets. Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes. AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions. The

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

Hydrographic trends in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 1960-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Robert W.

2018-01-01

A five-decade time series of temperature and salinity profiles within Prince William Sound (PWS) and the immediately adjacent shelf was assembled from several archives and ongoing field programs, and augmented with archived SST observations. Observations matched with recent cool (2007-2013) and warm (2013-onward) periods in the region, and also showed an overall regional warming trend ( 0.1 to 0.2 °C decade-1) that matched long-term increases in heat transport to the surface ocean. A cooling and freshening trend ( - 0.2 °C decade-1 and 0.02 respectively) occurred in the near surface waters in some portions of PWS, particularly the northwestern margin, which is also the location of most of the ice mass in the region; discharge (estimated from other studies) has increased over time, suggesting that those patterns were due to increased meltwater inputs. Increases in salinity at depth were consistent with enhanced entrainment of deep water by estuarine circulations, and by enhanced deep water renewal caused by reductions in downwelling-favorable winds. As well as local-scale effects, temperature and salinity were positively cross correlated with large scale climate and lunar indexes at long lags (years to months), indicating the longer time scales of atmospheric and transport connections with the Gulf of Alaska. Estimates of mixed layer depths show a shoaling of the seasonal mixed layer over time by several meters, which may have implications for ecosystem productivity in the region.

IgVH gene analysis suggests that peritoneal B cells do not contribute to the gut immune system in man.

PubMed

Boursier, Laurent; Farstad, Inger Nina; Mellembakken, Jan Roar; Brandtzaeg, Per; Spencer, Jo

2002-09-01

The contribution of peritoneal B cells to the intestinal lamina propria plasma cell population is well documented in mice, but unknown in humans. We have analyzed immunoglobulin (Ig) genes of human peritoneal B cells, because such genes show distinctive characteristics in mucosal B cells, particularly highly mutated variable regions. Here, we report the characteristics of variable region genes used by IgM, IgA and IgG in peritoneal cells. We focused on the properties of IgV(H)4-34 to allow comparisons of like-with-like between different isotypes and cells from different immune compartments. We observed that the IgM genes were mostly unmutated, and that the mutated subset had less mutations than would be expected in a mucosal B cell population. Likewise, the IgV(H)4-34 genes used by IgA and IgG from peritoneal B cells had significantly lower numbers of mutations than observed in the mucosal counterparts. Other trends observed, while not reaching statistical significance, followed the trend of peripheral B cells. The peritoneal B cell population had more IgA1 than IgA2 sequences, and there was no dominance of J(H)4 in the IgA from peritoneum or spleen, in contrast to the mucosal sequences. Overall, this study suggested that human peritoneal B cell are either peripheral or mixed in origin; they are unlikely to represent an inductive compartment for the mucosal B cell system.

Extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States.

PubMed

Brewer, Devon D; Dudek, Jonathan A; Potterat, John J; Muth, Stephen Q; Roberts, John M; Woodhouse, Donald E

2006-09-01

Prostitute women have the highest homicide victimization rate of any set of women ever studied. We analyzed nine diverse homicide data sets to examine the extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States. Most data sources substantially under-ascertained prostitute homicides. As estimated from a conservative capture-recapture analysis, 2.7% of female homicide victims in the United States between 1982 and 2000 were prostitutes. Frequencies of recorded prostitute and client homicides increased substantially in the late 1980s and early 1990s; nearly all of the few observed pimp homicides occurred before the late 1980s. These trends may be linked to the rise of crack cocaine use. Prostitutes were killed primarily by clients, clients were killed mainly by prostitutes, and pimps were killed predominantly by pimps. Another conservative estimate suggests that serial killers accounted for 35% of prostitute homicides. Proactive surveillance of, and evidence collection from, clients and prostitutes might enhance the investigation of prostitution-related homicide.

A New Perspective on Increasing Activity of Extratropical Disturbances: Spatial and Temporal Trends of Wave Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, P. C.; Hsu, H. H.

2016-12-01

Changes in extratropical disturbance behavior could play an important role in climate dynamics and be responsible for a part of climate-related damage. However, robust observational evidence for long-term trends in the activity is still lacking, and understanding of how it is linked with climate phenomena is limited. In this study, we define an accumulated perturbation index (API) to quantify the variation in some scalar quantities of atmospheric disturbances. API measures the areas (e.g., % of total surface area of Earth) where a certain perturbation quantity exceeds the long-term mean value plus 0.5 standard deviations. This index reflects more realistically the ensemble impacts of a climate perturbation and/or trend (such as global warming and ENSO) on the extratropical disturbances, even though its impact on different regions might vary from year to year due to stochastic processes. API represents an integrated activity of extratropical disturbances at a given time relative to a long time span. API is calculated for the 5-day running mean and 10-30-day stream function fluctuations during DJF and JJA. The analysis reveals an increasing trend in API and variance of stream function, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The findings suggest that atmospheric extratropical disturbances have strengthened in widening areas during the past six decades, even though there might not be robust trends in wave activity at regional scales. Whether the observed trends in API are associated with certain climate patterns is under investigation. Impact of global warming is likely one of the major sources for the increasing activity. The future change in API under global warming scenarios will be further studied by analyzing the projection of the CMIP5 models.

Seasonal and annual trends in forage fish mercury concentrations, San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Allen, Rachel M; Slotton, Darell G; Ayers, Shaun M; Harrold, Katherine H; Ridolfi, Katherine; Jahn, Andrew; Grenier, J Letitia; Sandheinrich, Mark B

2013-02-01

San Francisco Bay is contaminated by mercury (Hg) due to historic and ongoing sources, and has elevated Hg concentrations throughout the aquatic food web. We monitored Hg in forage fish to indicate seasonal and interannual variations and trends. Interannual variation and long-term trends were determined by monitoring Hg bioaccumulation during September-November, for topsmelt (Atherinops affinis) and Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) at six sites, over six years (2005 to 2010). Seasonal variation was characterized for arrow goby (Clevelandia ios) at one site, topsmelt at six sites, and Mississippi silverside at nine sites. Arrow goby exhibited a consistent seasonal pattern from 2008 to 2010, with lowest concentrations observed in late spring, and highest concentrations in late summer or early fall. In contrast, topsmelt concentrations tended to peak in late winter or early spring and silverside seasonal fluctuations varied among sites. The seasonal patterns may relate to seasonal shifts in net MeHg production in the contrasting habitats of the species. Topsmelt exhibited an increase in Alviso Slough from 2005 to 2010, possibly related to recent hypoxia in that site. Otherwise, directional trends for Hg in forage fish were not observed. For topsmelt and silverside, the variability explained by year was relatively low compared to sampling station, suggesting that interannual variation is not a strong influence on Hg concentrations. Although fish Hg has shown long-term declines in some ecosystems around the world, San Francisco Bay forage fish did not decline over the six-year monitoring period examined. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

Hg Stable Isotope Time Trend in Ringed Seals Registers Decreasing Sea Ice Cover in the Alaskan Arctic.

PubMed

Masbou, Jérémy; Point, David; Sonke, Jeroen E; Frappart, Frédéric; Perrot, Vincent; Amouroux, David; Richard, Pierre; Becker, Paul R

2015-08-04

Decadal time trends of mercury (Hg) concentrations in Arctic biota suggest that anthropogenic Hg is not the single dominant factor modulating Hg exposure to Arctic wildlife. Here, we present Hg speciation (monomethyl-Hg) and stable isotopic composition (C, N, Hg) of 53 Alaskan ringed seal liver samples covering a period of 14 years (1988-2002). In vivo metabolic effects and foraging ecology explain most of the observed 1.6 ‰ variation in liver δ(202)Hg, but not Δ(199)Hg. Ringed seal habitat use and migration were the most likely factors explaining Δ(199)Hg variations. Average Δ(199)Hg in ringed seal liver samples from Barrow increased significantly from +0.38 ± 0.08‰ (±SE, n = 5) in 1988 to +0.59 ± 0.07‰ (±SE, n = 7) in 2002 (4.1 ± 1.2% per year, p < 0.001). Δ(199)Hg in marine biological tissues is thought to reflect marine Hg photochemistry before biouptake and bioaccumulation. A spatiotemporal analysis of sea ice cover that accounts for the habitat of ringed seals suggests that the observed increase in Δ(199)Hg may have been caused by the progressive summer sea ice disappearance between 1988 and 2002. While changes in seal liver Δ(199)Hg values suggests a mild sea ice control on marine MMHg breakdown, the effect is not large enough to induce measurable HgT changes in biota. This suggests that Hg trends in biota in the context of a warming Arctic are likely controlled by other processes.

Regional nutrient trends in streams and rivers of the United States, 1993-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Lorenz, David L.

2009-01-01

Trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (indicators of anthropogenic changes) and observed concentrations (indicators of natural and anthropogenic changes) of total phosphorus and total nitrogen from 1993 to 2003 were evaluated in the eastern, central, and western United States by adapting the Regional Kendall trend test to account for seasonality and spatial correlation. The only significant regional trend was an increase in flow-adjusted concentrations of total phosphorus in the central United States, which corresponded to increases in phosphorus inputs from fertilizer in the region, particularly west of the Mississippi River. A similar upward regional trend in observed total phosphorus concentrations in the central United States was not found, likely because precipitation and runoff decreased during drought conditions in the region, offsetting the increased source loading on the land surface. A greater number of regional trends would have been significant if spatial correlation had been disregarded, indicating the importance of spatial correlation modifications in regional trend assessments when sites are not spatially independent.

Water-Quality Trends in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, 1974-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harned, D. A.

2003-12-01

detected for pH, hardness, and alkalinity. A pattern of increase until 1990 followed by little change or decline was observed for specific conductance, dissolved solids, hardness, and sulfate in the Neuse River and for potassium in Contentnea Creek. No significant recent (1997-2003) trends were detected for dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, hardness, dissolved solids, or major ions. The Neuse River data indicated a recent declining trend in sediment concentration. Nitrogen concentrations in the form of ammonia, total ammonia and organic nitrogen, and nitrite plus nitrate have declined in both the Neuse River and Contentnea Creek. Total nitrogen concentrations increased in the Neuse River until about 1990 and then declined, primarily because of declines in nitrate. Recent declines are evident in nitrite plus nitrate in the Neuse River and in ammonia concentrations in Contentnea Creek. The data also show a reduction in variation of extreme values after 1990 in Contentnea Creek. Both observations suggest that the 1997 Neuse River management rules have had a detectable effect on nitrogen concentrations. Concentrations of dissolved and total phosphorus and orthophosphate reduced in a step trend in 1988 at both locations. This reflects the 1988 phosphate detergent ban in North Carolina. Orthophosphate concentrations have continued a recent decline in Contentnea Creek. Contentnea Creek has sufficient period of record (1994-2003) of concentrations of atrazine, deethyl atrazine, alachlor, carbaryl, diazinon, and prometon to test for trends. Both alachlor and prometon concentrations showed significant declines. Recent changes in agricultural practices coupled with a 5-year drought probably have affected pesticide use and transport to surface waters.

Observed trends in the global jet stream characteristics during the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena-Ortiz, Cristina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Ordonez, Paulina; Alvarez-Castro, Maria Del Carmen

2013-04-01

In this paper, we propose a new method based on the detection of jet cores with the aim to describe the climatological features of the jet streams and to estimate their trends in latitude, altitude, and velocity in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and 20th Century reanalysis data sets. Due to the fact that the detection method uses a single grid point to define the position of jet cores, our results reveal a greater latitudinal definition allowing a more accurate picture of the split flow configurations and double jet structures. To the best of our knowledge, these results provide the first multiseasonal and global trend analysis of jet streams based on a daily-resolution 3-D detection algorithm. Trends have been analyzed over 1958-2008 and during the post-satellite period, 1979-2008. We found that, in general, trends in jet velocities and latitudes have been faster for the Southern Hemisphere jets and especially for the southern polar front jet which has experienced the fastest velocity increase and poleward shift over 1979-2008 during the austral summer and autumn. Results presented here show an acceleration and a poleward shift of the northern and southern winter subtropical jets over 1979-2008 that occur at a faster rate and over larger zonally extended regions during this latter period than during 1958-2008.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic

An update on age, hypnotic suggestibility, and gender: a brief report.

PubMed

Page, Roger A; Green, Joseph P

2007-04-01

This study assessed the relationship of age and hypnotic suggestibility in an effort to partially update the findings of Morgan and Hilgard (1973). A total of 2,660 undergraduates were administered the Harvard Group Scale of Hypnotic Susceptibility, Form A (HGSHS:A; Shor & Orne, 1962) over a 7 year period. Consistent with Morgan and Hilgard's results, we found a general trend for hypnotic suggestibility scores to decrease from age 17 to 40, and then increase thereafter. We also found that female participants scored higher on the HGSHS: A compared with males across the various age ranges that we sampled.

Levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada

PubMed Central

Guindon, G Emmanuel; Burkhalter, Robin; Brown, K Stephen

2017-01-01

Background There is overwhelming evidence that increases in tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use, save lives and increase government tax revenue. High taxes, however, create an incentive to devise ways to avoid or evade tobacco taxes through contraband tobacco. The associated consequences are significant and call for an accurate measurement of contraband's magnitude. However, its illegal nature makes the levels and trends in contraband intrinsically difficult to measure accurately. Objective To examine levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada. Methods We employed 2 approaches: first, we contrasted estimates of tax-paid cigarettes sales with consumption estimates based on survey data; second, we used data from several individual-level surveys that examined smokers' purchasing and use behaviours. We placed a particular emphasis on the provinces of Québec and Ontario because existing research suggests that cigarette contraband levels are far higher than in any other province. Results The estimates presented show a clear upward trend from the early 2000s in cigarette contraband in Québec and Ontario followed by, on the whole, a decreasing trend from about 2007 to 2009. None of the data presented provide support to the narrative that cigarette contraband has been increasing in recent years. Of note are Québec estimates which suggest relatively low levels of cigarette contraband since 2010, at levels no higher than in the early 2000s. Conclusions The data presented suggest that policies to tackle cigarette contraband introduced from the mid-2000s to late 2000s, at both federal and provincial levels, may have dampened the demand for contraband cigarettes. PMID:27601454

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Ground-based observations of Saturn's auroral H3+: short- and long-term trends in thermospheric temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donoghue, J.; Melin, H.; Stallard, T.; Moore, L.

2014-04-01

The observations presented here used the 10-m Keck telescope situated on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. They were designed to be an integral part of the Saturn Auroral Observing Campaign of April-May 2013 (to be published in the Icarus special issue of 2014). These overlap with observations performed by the Cassini spacecraft, Hubble space telescope and the NASA infrared telescope facility (IRTF). During the observations, Saturn's sub-solar latitude was 18 degrees, i.e. Saturn was well into northern springtime/ southern autumn. In three nights of data we have found 1) the northern hemisphere is on average ~50 K cooler than the southern. This is consistent with previous work, which suggests that magnetic field strength is inversely proportional to the total heating rate. 2) the combined northern and southern temperatures range typically between 380 and 500 K on time-scales of hours/days. 3) there may be a correlation between planetary period oscillation (PPO) phase and temperature in the northern main auroral oval.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, Jim; Fan, Yalin; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Stopa, Justin; Rogers, W. Erick; Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Shen, Hayley; Perrie, Will; Shen, Hui; Ackley, Steve; Babanin, Alex; Liu, Qingxiang; Guest, Peter; Maksym, Ted; Wadhams, Peter; Fairall, Chris; Persson, Ola; Doble, Martin; Graber, Hans; Lund, Bjoern; Squire, Vernon; Gemmrich, Johannes; Lehner, Susanne; Holt, Benjamin; Meylan, Mike; Brozena, John; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2016-09-01

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing. Wave model hindcasts from four selected years spanning recent conditions are consistent with this expectation. In particular, larger waves are more common in years with less summer sea ice and/or a longer open water season, and peak wave periods are generally longer. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance. However, trends in the amount of wave energy impinging on the ice-edge are inconclusive, and the associated processes, especially in the autumn period of new ice formation, have yet to be well-described by in situ observations. There is an implicit trend and evidence for increasing wave energy along the coast of northern Alaska, and this coastal signal is corroborated by satellite altimeter estimates of wave energy.

Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, N. C.; Gautam, R.; Sayer, A. M.; Bettenhausen, C.; Li, C.; Jeong, M. J.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B. N.

2012-09-01

Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-yr mission. Our correlation analysis between climatic indices (such as ENSO) and AOD suggests strong relationships for Saharan dust export as well as biomass-burning activity in the tropics, associated with large-scale feedbacks. The results also indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On regional scales, distinct tendencies are found for different regions associated with natural and anthropogenic aerosol emission and transport. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Baker, Nancy T.

2014-01-01

Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

HIV pretreatment drug resistance trends in three geographic areas of Mexico.

PubMed

García-Morales, Claudia; Tapia-Trejo, Daniela; Quiroz-Morales, Verónica S; Navarro-Álvarez, Samuel; Barrera-Arellano, Carlos A; Casillas-Rodríguez, Jesús; Romero-Mora, Karla A; Gómez-Palacio-Schjetnan, María; Murakami-Ogasawara, Akio; Ávila-Ríos, Santiago; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

2017-11-01

Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) levels to NNRTI approaching 10% have recently been reported in Mexico. However, subnational differences may exist in PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics. We longitudinally assessed HIV PDR in three geographic areas of Mexico. HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive individuals were recruited from 2008 to 2016, from the Central Metropolitan Zone (CMZ), Cancun and Tijuana (1194, 773 and 668 respectively). PDR was estimated using the Stanford HIVdb tool from plasma HIV pol sequences. A higher proportion of females, lower education and lower employment rate were observed in Tijuana, while a higher proportion of MSM was observed in the CMZ (P < 0.0001, all cases). For 2012-16, PDR was 13.4%, 8.9% and 11.2% in the CMZ, Tijuana and Cancun respectively. NNRTI PDR was highest in the three regions (8.7%, 4.8% and 8.1% respectively, P < 0.05); nevertheless, NNRTI PDR in Tijuana was lower than in the CMZ (P = 0.01). For 2008-16, we observed increasing efavirenz resistance trends in all regions (P < 0.05, all cases), reaching 11.8%, 6.1% and 8.3% respectively in 2016. Increasing efavirenz resistance was mostly associated with increasing K103N frequency (P = 0.007 CMZ, P = 0.03 Tijuana, not significant for Cancun). Our study suggests different NNRTI PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics in three geographical areas of Mexico. Even when increasing trends in efavirenz resistance were observed in the three areas, our observations support that, in a large country such as Mexico, subnational surveillance and locally tailored interventions to address drug resistance may be a reasonable option. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

2017-06-01

The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

PubMed

Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

2016-01-01

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation datasets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land-use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 52-54% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 99%) and 84-85% in dry basins (ranging from 13 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 39-42% of ET trends in wet basins and 69-79% in dry basins. Cropland expansion increased ET in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation data sets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 54-55% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 100%) and 94-95% in dry basins (ranging from 69 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 45-46% of ET trends in wet basins and 80-84% in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

2011-01-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems

PubMed Central

Gagne, Tyler O.; Hyrenbach, K. David; Hagemann, Molly E.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.

2018-01-01

Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level–based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher–trophic level to lower–trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems. PMID:29457134

Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems.

PubMed

Gagne, Tyler O; Hyrenbach, K David; Hagemann, Molly E; Van Houtan, Kyle S

2018-02-01

Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level-based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher-trophic level to lower-trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems.

Understanding trends in blood pressure and their associations with body mass index in Chinese children, from 1985 to 2010: a cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Dong, Bin; Wang, Zhiqiang; Song, Yi; Wang, Hai-Jun; Ma, Jun

2015-09-11

Understanding trends in blood pressure (BP) in childhood is crucial to addressing and reducing the burden of adulthood hypertension and associated mortality in the future. In view of growing obesity in Chinese children, we sought to investigate the trends in BP and the influence of body mass index (BMI) on them. We included 1,010,153 children aged 8-17 years, with completed records from a large national successive cross-sectional survey, the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health, between 1985 and 2010. BP was measured according to the recommendation of the National High Blood Pressure Education Program Working Group, and the elevated BP was based on sex-, age- and height-specific 95th centile of the recommendation. The adjusted mean systolic BP in boys and girls decreased by 3.9 and 5.6 mm Hg between 1985 and 2005, and increased by 1.3 and 1.0 mm Hg between 2005 and 2010, respectively. Corresponding adjusted prevalence of elevated systolic BP in boys and girls declined from 5.1% and 5.5% to 3.5% and 2.5% between 1985 and 2005, and increased to 4.9% and 3.5% in 2010, respectively. Adjusted mean BMI of boys and girls in 2010 was 2.0 and 1.2 kg/m(2) higher than those in 1985, respectively. The prevalence of obesity rose from 0% to 3.4% in boys and 0.9% in girls. Further adjusting for BMI did not change these trends in systolic BP. A similar pattern was also observed in diastolic BP. After declining for 20 years, BP levels in Chinese children started to climb upwards. These trends in BP cannot be fully explained by BMI. The investigation of other determinants of BP may provide additional opportunity to curb the current upward BP trend in Chinese children. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Analysis of trends in experimental observables: Reconstruction of the implosion dynamics and implications for fusion yield extrapolation for direct-drive cryogenic targets on OMEGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, A.; Betti, R.; Mangino, D.; Woo, K. M.; Patel, D.; Christopherson, A. R.; Gopalaswamy, V.; Mannion, O. M.; Regan, S. P.; Goncharov, V. N.; Edgell, D. H.; Forrest, C. J.; Frenje, J. A.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Yu Glebov, V.; Igumenshchev, I. V.; Knauer, J. P.; Marshall, F. J.; Radha, P. B.; Shah, R.; Stoeckl, C.; Theobald, W.; Sangster, T. C.; Shvarts, D.; Campbell, E. M.

2018-06-01

This paper describes a technique for identifying trends in performance degradation for inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments. It is based on reconstruction of the implosion core with a combination of low- and mid-mode asymmetries. This technique was applied to an ensemble of hydro-equivalent deuterium-tritium implosions on OMEGA which achieved inferred hot-spot pressures ≈56 ± 7 Gbar [Regan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 025001 (2016)]. All the experimental observables pertaining to the core could be reconstructed simultaneously with the same combination of low and mid-modes. This suggests that in addition to low modes, which can cause a degradation of the stagnation pressure, mid-modes are present which reduce the size of the neutron and x-ray producing volume. The systematic analysis shows that asymmetries can cause an overestimation of the total areal density in these implosions. It is also found that an improvement in implosion symmetry resulting from correction of either the systematic mid or low modes would result in an increase in the hot-spot pressure from 56 Gbar to ≈ 80 Gbar and could produce a burning plasma when the implosion core is extrapolated to an equivalent 1.9 MJ symmetric direct illumination [Bose et al., Phys. Rev. E 94, 011201(R) (2016)].

Revealing Fact or Fiction in Spitzer Exoplanet Phase Curve Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, Jacob; Parmentier, Vivien; Mansfield, Megan; Cowan, Nicolas; Kempton, Eliza; Desert, Jean-Michel; Swain, Mark; Dang, Lisa; Bell, Taylor; Keating, Dylan; Zellem, Robert; Fortney, Jonathan; Line, Michael; Kreidberg, Laura; Stevenson, Kevin

2018-05-01

The constraints on energy transport in exoplanet atmospheres from phase curve observations is sure to be one of Spitzer's enduring legacies. However, with phase curves for 17 planets now observed we find that the previously observed trends are not coming into sharper focus. Instead, these trends in hot spot offset and day-night flux contrast vs. the fundamental planetary parameters expected to control the energy transport (e.g., irradiation and rotational period) are becoming more uncertain due to the recent discovery of outliers. At the same time, there is a growing understanding that a number of factors like magnetic fields, aerosols, and molecular chemistry could be confounding the search for these correlations. We propose a final phase curve program to advance our understanding of energy transport in transiting exoplanet atmospheres and to cement Spitzer's legacy on this topic. This program tackles the outstanding questions in this area with a comprehensive, two-pronged approach: (1) a survey of an additional 10 high signal-to-noise planets that span a broad parameter space and (2) a search for magnetic field-induced variability in the planet HAT-P-7b. The expanded survey will bring additional statistical power to the search for trends and will enable us to determine if the recently-detected outliers are indeed oddities or are instead actually representative of the intrinsic sample diversity. The variability search will test the hypothesis that the atmospheric dynamics of the partially ionized atmospheres of close-in planets are influenced by magnetic fields, which could explain the observed scatter around the existing trends. All observations will be performed at 4.5 microns, which is the consensus best channel for these measurements. The dataset from this program will provide vital context for JWST observations and will not be superseded until ARIEL flies more than a decade from now.

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

1995-01-01

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Longitudinal trends in use and costs of targeted therapies for common cancers in Taiwan: a retrospective observational study

PubMed Central

Hsu, Jason C; Lu, Christine Y

2016-01-01

Objectives Some targeted therapies have improved survival and overall quality of cancer care generally, but these increasingly expensive medicines have led to increases in pharmaceutical expenditure. This study examined trends in use and expenditures of antineoplastic agents in Taiwan, and estimated market shares by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies over time. We also determined which cancer types accounted for the highest use of targeted therapies. Design This is a retrospective observational study focusing on the utilisation of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer. Setting The monthly claims data for antineoplastic agents were retrieved from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (2009–2012). Main outcome measures We calculated market shares by prescription volume and costs for each class of antineoplastic agent by cancer type. Using a time series design with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we estimated trends in use and costs of targeted therapies. Results Among all antineoplastic agents, use of targeted therapies grew from 6.24% in 2009 to 12.29% in 2012, but their costs rose from 26.16% to 41.57% in that time. Monoclonal antibodies and protein kinase inhibitors contributed the most (respectively, 23.84% and 16.12% of costs for antineoplastic agents in 2012). During 2009–2012, lung (44.64% of use; 28.26% of costs), female breast (16.49% of use; 27.18% of costs) and colorectal (12.11% of use; 13.16% of costs) cancers accounted for the highest use of targeted therapies. Conclusions In Taiwan, targeted therapies are increasingly used for different cancers, representing a substantial economic burden. It is important to establish mechanisms to monitor their use and outcomes. PMID:27266775

Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?

PubMed Central

Wu, Lawrence L.; Shafer, Emily Fitzgibbons

2015-01-01

We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting cohort trends in (1) the age-specific risk of a premarital conception taken to term; (2) the age-specific risk of first marriages not preceded by such a conception, which will influence women’s years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) whether a premarital conception is resolved by entering a first marriage before the resulting first birth (a “shotgun marriage”). For women born between 1920–1924 and 1945–1949, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to increases in premarital conceptions. For women born between 1945–1949 and 1960–1964, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to declines in responding to premarital conceptions by marrying before the birth. Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not preceded by conceptions—a finding that holds for both whites and blacks. These results cast doubt on hypotheses concerning “marriageable” men and instead suggest that increases in premarital first births resulted initially from increases in premarital sex and then later from decreases in responding to a conception by marrying before a first birth. PMID:24072609

Trends in surface ozone concentrations at Arosa (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Thudium, Juerg; Buehler, Ralph; Volz-Thomas, Andreas; Graber, Werner

During the years 1989-1991, ozone was measured at four sites around Arosa (Switzerland). One of these sites was identical with that, where surface ozone was measured in the 1950s (Götz and Volz, 1951; Perl, 1965). Comparison of both old and recent data indicates that surface ozone concentrations at Arosa have increased by a factor of approximately 2.2. The increase shows a seasonal variation with a relative increase of more than a factor of three in December and January. The results are discussed in the context of measurements made at other times, locations and altitudes. The comparison indicates that the increase in ozone levels at Arosa has most likely occured between the fifties and today. The measurements additionally suggest that photochemical ozone production in the free troposphere has significantly contributed to the observed ozone trends in winter.

Population trends of binary near-Earth asteroids based on radar and lightcurves observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozovic, Marina; Benner, Lance A. M.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Busch, Michael W.; Margot, Jean-Luc; Nolan, Michael C.; Howell, Ellen S.; Springmann, Alessondra; Giorgini, Jon D.; Shepard, Michael K.; Magri, Christopher; Richardson, James E.; Rivera-Valentin, Edgard G.; Rodriguez-Ford, Linda A.; Zambrano Marin, Luisa Fernanda

2016-10-01

The Arecibo and Goldstone planetary radars are invaluable instruments for the discovery and characterization of binary and triple asteroids in the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. To date, 41 out of 56 known binaries and triples (~73% of the objects) have been discovered by radar and 49 of these multiple systems have been detected by radar. Their absolute magnitudes range from 12.4 for (1866) Sisyphus to 22.6 for 2015 TD144 and have a mean and rms dispersion of 18.1+-2.0. There is a pronounced decrease in the abundance of binaries for absolute magnitudes H>20. One of the smallest binaries, 1994 CJ1, with an absolute magnitude H=21.4, is also the most accessible binary for a spacecraft rendezvous. Among 365 NEAs with H<22 (corresponding to diameters larger than ~ 140 m) detected by radar since 1999, ~13% have at least one companion. Two triple systems are known, (15391) 2001 SN263 and (136617) 1994 CC, but this is probably an underestimate due to low signal to noise ratios (SNRs) for many of the binary radar detections. Taxonomic classes have been reported for 41 out of 56 currently known multiple systems and some trends are starting to emerge: at least 50% of multiple asteroid systems are S, Sq, Q, or Sk, and at least 20% are optically dark (C, B, P, or U). Thirteen V-class NEAs have been observed by radar and six of them are binaries. Curiously, a comparable number of E-class objects have been detected by radar, but none is known to be a binary.

Icehouse Effect: A Polar Autumn and Winter Cooling Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzel, Peter J.

1999-01-01

The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.

Levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada.

PubMed

Guindon, G Emmanuel; Burkhalter, Robin; Brown, K Stephen

2016-09-01

There is overwhelming evidence that increases in tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use, save lives and increase government tax revenue. High taxes, however, create an incentive to devise ways to avoid or evade tobacco taxes through contraband tobacco. The associated consequences are significant and call for an accurate measurement of contraband's magnitude. However, its illegal nature makes the levels and trends in contraband intrinsically difficult to measure accurately. To examine levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada. We employed 2 approaches: first, we contrasted estimates of tax-paid cigarettes sales with consumption estimates based on survey data; second, we used data from several individual-level surveys that examined smokers' purchasing and use behaviours. We placed a particular emphasis on the provinces of Québec and Ontario because existing research suggests that cigarette contraband levels are far higher than in any other province. The estimates presented show a clear upward trend from the early 2000s in cigarette contraband in Québec and Ontario followed by, on the whole, a decreasing trend from about 2007 to 2009. None of the data presented provide support to the narrative that cigarette contraband has been increasing in recent years. Of note are Québec estimates which suggest relatively low levels of cigarette contraband since 2010, at levels no higher than in the early 2000s. The data presented suggest that policies to tackle cigarette contraband introduced from the mid-2000s to late 2000s, at both federal and provincial levels, may have dampened the demand for contraband cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2006-01-01

Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Trends in child and adolescent obesity prevalence in economically advanced countries according to socioeconomic position: a systematic review.

PubMed

Chung, A; Backholer, K; Wong, E; Palermo, C; Keating, C; Peeters, A

2016-03-01

Recent obesity trends in children and adolescents suggest a plateau. However, it is unclear whether such trends have been experienced across socioeconomic groups. We analysed whether recent trends in child and adolescent overweight and obesity differ by socioeconomic position (SEP) across economically advanced countries. Eligible studies reported overweight and obesity prevalence in children and/or adolescents (2-18 years), for at least two time points since 1990, stratified by SEP. Socioeconomic differences in trends in child and adolescent overweight and obesity over time were analysed. Differences in trends between SEP groups were observed across a majority of studies. Over half the studies indicated increasing prevalence among low SEP children and adolescents compared to a third of studies among children and adolescents with a high SEP. Around half the studies indicated widening socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity. Since 2000 a majority of studies demonstrated no change or a decrease in prevalence among both high and low SEP groups. However around 40% of studies indicated widening of socioeconomic inequalities post-2000. While our study provides grounds for optimism, socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity continue to widen. These findings highlight the need for greater consideration of different population groups when implementing obesity interventions. © 2015 World Obesity.

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-01-01

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

Systematic trends in photonic reagent induced reactions in a homologous chemical family.

PubMed

Tibbetts, Katharine Moore; Xing, Xi; Rabitz, Herschel

2013-08-29

The growing use of ultrafast laser pulses to induce chemical reactions prompts consideration of these pulses as "photonic reagents" in analogy to chemical reagents. This work explores the prospect that photonic reagents may affect systematic trends in dissociative ionization reactions of a homologous family of halomethanes, much as systematic outcomes are often observed for reactions between homologous families of chemical reagents and chemical substrates. The experiments in this work with photonic reagents of varying pulse energy and linear spectral chirp reveal systematic correlations between observable ion yields and the following set of natural variables describing the substrate molecules: the ionization energy of the parent molecule, the appearance energy of each fragment ion, and the relative strength of carbon-halogen bonds in molecules containing two different halogens. The results suggest that reactions induced by photonic reagents exhibit systematic behavior analogous to that observed in reactions driven by chemical reagents, which provides a basis to consider empirical "rules" for predicting the outcomes of photonic reagent induced reactions.

Hypnotic suggestibility predicts the magnitude of the imaginative word blindness suggestion effect in a non-hypnotic context.

PubMed

Parris, Benjamin A; Dienes, Zoltan

2013-09-01

The present study investigated how the magnitude the word blindness suggestion effect on Stroop interference depended on hypnotic suggestibility when given as an imaginative suggestion (i.e. not post-hypnotic suggestion) and under conditions in which hypnosis was not mentioned. Hypnotic suggestibility is shown to be a significant predictor of the magnitude of the imaginative word blindness suggestion effect under these conditions. This is therefore the first study to show a linear relationship between the imaginative word blindness suggestion effect and hypnotic suggestibility across the whole hypnotizability spectrum. The results replicate previous findings showing that highs respond to the word blindness suggestion to a greater extent than lows but extend previous work by showing that the advantage for those higher on the hypnotizability spectrum occurs even in a non-hypnotic context. Negative attitudes about hypnosis may not explain the failure to observe similar effects of the word blindness suggestion in less hypnotizable individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of Infectious Disease Research Trends in Medical Journals From North Korea.

PubMed

Park, Do-Hyeon; Choi, Min-Ho; Lim, Ah-Young; Shin, Hee Young

2018-03-01

This study aimed to investigate the current status of infectious disease research in North Korea by analyzing recent trends in medical journals from North Korea in comparison with research from South Korea. Three medical journals (Preventive Medicine, Basic Medicine, and Chosun Medicine) were analyzed from 2012 to 2016. Articles on tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and parasitic diseases were selected and classified by their subtopics and study areas. Two medical journals published in the South Korea were selected for a comparative analysis of research trends. Of the 2792 articles that were reviewed, 93 were extracted from North Korea journals. TB research in North Korea was largely focused on multi-drug resistant TB and extrapulmonary TB, whereas research in South Korea more frequently investigated non-tuberculous mycobacteria. Research on parasitic diseases in North Korea was focused on protozoan and intestinal nematodes, while the corresponding South Korea research investigated various species of parasites. Additionally, the studies conducted in North Korea were more likely to investigate the application of traditional medicine to diagnosis and treatment than those conducted in South Korea. This study presents an analysis of research trends in preventive medicine in North Korea focusing on infectious diseases, in which clear differences were observed between South and North Korea. Trends in research topics suggest a high prevalence of certain parasitic diseases in North Korea that are no longer widespread in South Korea. The large proportion of studies examining traditional medicine implies a lack of affordable medicine in North Korea.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Trends and correlates of marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults in the United States, 2002–2014

PubMed Central

Salas-Wright, Christopher P.; Vaughn, Michael G.; Cummings-Vaughn, Lenise A.; Holzer, Katherine J.; Nelson, Erik J.; AbiNader, Millan; Oh, Sehun

2016-01-01

Background Recent trend studies suggest that marijuana use is on the rise among the general population of adults ages 18 and older in the United States. However, little is known about the trends in marijuana use and marijuana-specific risk/protective factors among American adults during the latter part of adulthood. Method Findings are based on repeated, cross-sectional data collected from late middle-aged (ages 50–64) and older adults (ages 65 and older) surveyed as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2014. Results The prevalence of past-year marijuana use among late middle-aged adults increased significantly from a low of 2.95% in 2003 to a high of 9.08% in 2014. Similarly, the prevalence of marijuana use increased significantly among older adults from a low of 0.15% in 2003 to a high of 2.04% in 2014. Notably, the upward trends in marijuana use remained significant even when accounting for sociodemographic, substance use, behavioral, and health-related factors. We also found that decreases in marijuana-specific protective factors were associated with the observed trend changes in marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults, and observed a weakening of the association between late-middle aged marijuana use and risk propensity, other illicit drug use, and criminal justice system involvement over the course of the study. Conclusions Findings from the present study provide robust evidence indicating that marijuana use among older Americans has increased markedly in recent years, with the most evident changes observed between 2008 and 2014. PMID:28063338

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Surface ozone and carbon monoxide levels observed at Oki, Japan: regional air pollution trends in East Asia.

PubMed

Sikder, Helena Akhter; Suthawaree, Jeeranut; Kato, Shungo; Kajii, Yoshizumi

2011-03-01

Simultaneous ground-based measurements of ozone and carbon monoxide were performed at Oki, Japan, from January 2001 to September 2002 in order to investigate the O(3) and CO characteristics and their distributions. The observations revealed that O(3) and CO concentrations were maximum in springtime and minimum in the summer. The monthly averaged concentrations of O(3) and CO were 60 and 234 ppb in spring and 23 and 106 ppb in summer, respectively. Based on direction, 5-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis was carried out to determine the transport path of air masses, preceding their arrival at Oki. Comparison between classified results from present work and results from the year 1994-1996 was carried out. The O(3) and CO concentration results of classified air masses in our analysis show similar concentration trends to previous findings; highest in the WNW/W, lowest in N/NE and medium levels in NW. Moreover, O(3) levels are higher and CO levels are lower in the present study in all categories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery: examining the variable extent of impact on exposure of different drug classes.

PubMed

Darwich, Adam S; Henderson, Kathryn; Burgin, Angela; Ward, Nicola; Whittam, Janet; Ammori, Basil J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2012-11-01

Changes to oral drug bioavailability have been observed post bariatric surgery. However, the magnitude and the direction of changes have not been assessed systematically to provide insights into the parameters governing the observed trends. Understanding these can help with dose adjustments. Analysis of drug characteristics based on a biopharmaceutical classification system is not adequate to explain observed trends in altered oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery, although the findings suggest solubility to play an important role. To identify the most commonly prescribed drugs in a bariatric surgery population and to assess existing evidence regarding trends in oral drug bioavailability post bariatric surgery. A retrospective audit was undertaken to document commonly prescribed drugs amongst patients undergoing bariatric surgery in an NHS hospital in the UK and to assess practice for drug administration following bariatric surgery. The available literature was examined for trends relating to drug permeability and solubility with regards to the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) and main route of elimination. No significant difference in the 'post/pre surgery oral drug exposure ratio' (ppR) was apparent between BCS class I to IV drugs, with regards to dose number (Do) or main route of elimination. Drugs classified as 'solubility limited' displayed an overall reduction as compared with 'freely soluble' compounds, as well as an unaltered and increased ppR. Clinical studies establishing guidelines for commonly prescribed drugs, and the monitoring of drugs exhibiting a narrow therapeutic window or without a readily assessed clinical endpoint, are warranted. Using mechanistically based pharmacokinetic modelling for simulating the multivariate nature of changes in drug exposure may serve as a useful tool in the further understanding of postoperative trends in oral drug exposure and in developing practical clinical guidance. © 2012 The Authors

LADEE/LDEX observations of lunar pickup ion distribution and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppe, A. R.; Halekas, J. S.; Szalay, J. R.; Horányi, M.; Levin, Z.; Kempf, S.

2016-04-01

We report fortuitous observations of low-energy lunar pickup ion fluxes near the Moon while in the solar wind by the Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX) on board the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE). We describe the method of observation and the empirical calibration of the instrument for ion observations. LDEX observes several trends in the exospheric ion production rate, including a scale height of approximately 100 km, a positive, linear correlation with solar wind flux, and evidence of a slight enhancement near 7-8 h local time. We compare the LDEX observations to both LADEE Neutral Mass Spectrometer ion mode observations and theoretical models. The LDEX data are best fit by total exospheric ion production rates of ≈6 × 103 m-3 s-1 with dominant contributions from Al+, CO+, and Ar+, although the LDEX data suggest that the aluminum neutral density and corresponding ion production rate are lower than predicted by recent models.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

Partition of genetic trends by origin in Landrace and Large-White pigs.

PubMed

Škorput, D; Gorjanc, G; Kasap, A; Luković, Z

2015-10-01

The objective of this study was to analyse the effectiveness of genetic improvement via domestic selection and import for backfat thickness and time on test in a conventional pig breeding programme for Landrace (L) and Large-White (LW) breeds. Phenotype data was available for 25 553 L and 10 432 LW pigs born between 2002 and 2012 from four large-scale farms and 72 family farms. Pedigree information indicated whether each animal was born and registered within the domestic breeding programme or has been imported. This information was used for defining the genetic groups of unknown parents in a pedigree and the partitioning analysis. Breeding values were estimated using a Bayesian analysis of an animal model with and without genetic groups. Such analysis enabled full Bayesian inference of the genetic trends and their partitioning by the origin of germplasm. Estimates of genetic group indicated that imported germplasm was overall better than domestic and substantial changes in estimates of breeding values was observed when genetic group were fitted. The estimated genetic trends in L were favourable and significantly different from zero by the end of the analysed period. Overall, the genetic trends in LW were not different from zero. The relative contribution of imported germplasm to genetic trends was large, especially towards the end of analysed period with 78% and 67% in L and from 50% to 67% in LW. The analyses suggest that domestic breeding activities and sources of imported animals need to be re-evaluated, in particular in LW breed.

Cumulative meta-analysis: a new tool for detection of temporal trends and publication bias in ecology.

PubMed Central

Leimu, Roosa; Koricheva, Julia

2004-01-01

Temporal changes in the magnitude of research findings have recently been recognized as a general phenomenon in ecology, and have been attributed to the delayed publication of non-significant results and disconfirming evidence. Here we introduce a method of cumulative meta-analysis which allows detection of both temporal trends and publication bias in the ecological literature. To illustrate the application of the method, we used two datasets from recently conducted meta-analyses of studies testing two plant defence theories. Our results revealed three phases in the evolution of the treatment effects. Early studies strongly supported the hypothesis tested, but the magnitude of the effect decreased considerably in later studies. In the latest studies, a trend towards an increase in effect size was observed. In one of the datasets, a cumulative meta-analysis revealed publication bias against studies reporting disconfirming evidence; such studies were published in journals with a lower impact factor compared to studies with results supporting the hypothesis tested. Correlation analysis revealed neither temporal trends nor evidence of publication bias in the datasets analysed. We thus suggest that cumulative meta-analysis should be used as a visual aid to detect temporal trends and publication bias in research findings in ecology in addition to the correlative approach. PMID:15347521

Trends in Schooling: Demography, Performance and Organization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mare, Robert D.

1981-01-01

Utilizing "Social Indicators" (1979), discusses growth and distribution of schooling in the U.S., trends in student test performance, and major organizational changes in elementary/secondary education. Comments on quality of available data and suggests improvements for future reporting of educational indicators. (Reprint of article is available…

Peculiar Abundances Observed in the Hot Subdwarf OB Star LB 3241

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chayer, Pierre; Dupuis, J.; Dixon, W. V.; Giguere, E.

2010-01-01

We present a spectral synthesis analysis of the hot subdwarf OB star LB 3241. The analysis is based on spectra obtained by the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE). With an effective temperature of 41,000 K and a gravity of log g = 5.7, the position of LB 3241 in a Teff-log g diagram suggests that it has evolved from the extreme horizontal branch. Such stars evolve into white dwarfs without ascending the asymptotic giant branch after the helium core exhaustion. Arsenic (Z = 33), selenium (34), and tellurium (52) are observed in the atmosphere of LB 3241, and are a first for a hot subdwarf star. LB 3241 shows peculiar chemical abundances that exhibit trends observed in cooler sdB stars. The content of its atmosphere in light elements is about a factor ten lower than that of the Sun, except for nitrogen which has a solar abundance. The Fe abundance is consistent with a solar abundance, but abundances of elements beyond the iron peak (As, Se, Te, Pb) show enrichments over the solar values by factors ranging from 10 to 300. These observations suggest that competing mechanisms must counterbalance the effects of the downward diffusion. The FUSE observations also suggest that LB 3241 is a radial velocity variable.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

Post-White-nose syndrome trends in Virginia’s cave bats, 2008-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Karen E.; Reynolds, Richard J.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.

2015-01-01

Since its 2009 detection in Virginia hibernacula, the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans causing White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has had a marked impact on cave bats locally. From 2008-2013, we documented numeric and physiologic changes in cave bats through fall swarm (FS), early hibernation (EH), and late hibernation (LH) capture and banding surveys at 18 hibernacula in western Virginia. We coupled active surveys with passive biennial winter counts in 2009, 2011, and 2013. We compared individual body mass index (BMI) across years for FS, EH, and LH hibernation to determine if WNS impacts on extant bats would be manifested by changes in body condition (as anecdotally observed elsewhere for WNS-impacted bats) as well as a population reduction. To estimate percent declines in bat presence or relative activity, we used FS capture per-unit-effort data, and the winter hibernacula absolute counts. We captured 4,524 bats of eight species, with species-specific capture success declining by 75-100% post-WNS. Little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) exhibited the greatest declines in winter hibernacula counts (AVG. = 99.0% decline), followed by tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus; 89.5% decline) and Indiana bats (M. sodalis; 33.5% decline). Graphical analyses of captures-per-trap-hour in FS showed declines for little brown bats, tri-colored bats, and northern long-eared bats (M. septentrionalis), but suggest a modest rebound of Indiana bat numbers. Fall swarm trends in BMI suggested some drops post-WNS exposure, but these trends were not consistent across sexes or seasonal time blocks. Our inconclusive BMI metrics and little brown bat band recapture data suggest little competitive advantage or selection for surviving bats. Lesser (but apparent) declines in Indiana bat numbers mirrors trends seen elsewhere regionally, and band recoveries do show that some individuals are persisting. Additional surveys will determine if bats in Virginia will persist or face extirpation due

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates - United States, 2000-2015.

PubMed

Yang, Quanhe; Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G

2017-09-08

The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000-2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000-2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003-2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006-2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013-2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013-2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist.

New measurements of photospheric magnetic fields in late-type stars and emerging trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saar, S. H.; Linsky, J. L.

1986-01-01

The magnetic fields of late-type stars are measured using the method of Saar et al. (1986). The method includes radiative transfer effects and compensation for line blending; the photospheric magnetic field parameters are derived by comparing observed and theoretical line profiles using an LTE code that includes line saturation and full Zeeman pattern. The preliminary mean active region magnetic field strengths (B) and surface area coverages for 20 stars are discussed. It is observed that there is a trend of increasing B towards the cooler dwarfs stars, and the linear correlation between B and the equipartition value of the magnetic field strength suggests that the photospheric gas pressure determines the photospheric magnetic field strengths. A tendency toward larger filling factors at larger stellar angular velocities is also detected.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

North Atlantic Oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appenzeller, Christof; Weiss, Andrea K.; Staehelin, Johannes

2000-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is modulating the Earth's ozone shield such that the calculated anthropogenic total ozone decrease is enhanced over Europe whereas over the North Atlantic region it is reduced (for the last 30 years). Including the NAO in a statistical model suggests a more uniform chemical winter trend compared to the strong longitudinal variation reported earlier. At Arosa (Switzerland) the trend is reduced to -2.4% per decade compared to -3.2% and at Reykjavik (Iceland) it is enhanced to -3.8% compared to 0%. The revised trend is slightly below the predictions by 2D chemical models. Decadal ozone variability is linked to variations in the dynamical structure of the atmosphere, as reflected in the tropopause pressure. The latter varies in concert with the NAO index with a distinct geographical pattern.

High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982-2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Logan T.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Lloyd, Andrea H.; Goetz, Scott J.

2011-03-01

Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site-level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.