Sources of uncertainty in annual forest inventory estimates

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2000-01-01

Although design and estimation aspects of annual forest inventories have begun to receive considerable attention within the forestry and natural resources communities, little attention has been devoted to identifying the sources of uncertainty inherent in these systems or to assessing the impact of those uncertainties on the total uncertainties of inventory estimates....

Annual update of data for estimating ESALs : draft.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

A revised procedure for estimating equivalent single axleloads (ESALs) was developed in 1985. This procedure used weight, classification, and traffic volume data collected by the Transportation Cabinet's Division of Planning. : Annual updates of data...

Method for Estimating Annual Atrazine Use for Counties in the Conterminous United States, 1992-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelin, Gail P.; Stone, Wesley W.

2010-01-01

A method was developed to estimate annual atrazine use during 1992 to 2007 on sixteen crops and four agricultural land uses. For each year, atrazine use was estimated for all counties in the conterminous United States (except California) by combining (1) proprietary data from the Doane Marketing Research-Kynetec (DMRK) AgroTrak database on the mass of atrazine applied to agricultural crops, (2) county harvested crop acreage, by county, from the 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, and (3) annual harvested crop acreage from National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) for non-Census years. DMRK estimates of pesticide use on individual crops were derived from surveys of major field crops and selected specialty crops in multicounty areas referred to as Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The CRD-level atrazine-use estimates were disaggregated to obtain county-level application rates by dividing the mass (pounds) of pesticides applied to a crop by the acreage of that crop in the CRD to yield a rate per harvested acre. When atrazine-use estimates were not available for a CRD, crop, or year, an estimated rate was developed following a hierarchy of decision rules that checked first for the availability of a crop application rate from surveyed atrazine application rate(s) for adjacent CRDs for a specific year, and second, the rates from surveyed CRDs within for U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Production Regions for a specific year or multiple years. The estimation method applied linear interpolation to estimate crop acreage for years when harvested acres for a crop and county were not reported in either the Census of Agriculture or the NASS database, but were reported by these data sources for other years for that crop and county. Data for atrazine use for the counties in California was obtained from farmers' reports of pesticide use collected and published by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation-Pesticide Use Reporting (DPR-PUR) because these

Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, M.E.; Jobson, H.E.

1982-01-01

Mean annual evaporation estimates were determined for 30 lakes by use of a numerical model (Morton, 1979) and by use of an evaporation map prepared by the U.S. Weather Service (Kohler et al., 1959). These estimates were compared to the reported value of evaporation determined from measurements on each lake. Various lengths of observation and methods of measurement were used among the 30 lakes. The evaporation map provides annual evaporation estimates which are more consistent with observations than those determined by use of the numerical model. The map cannot provide monthly estimates, however, and is only available for the contiguous United States. The numerical model can provide monthly estimates for shallow lakes and is based on monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration.

Annual forest inventory estimates based on the moving average

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch; James R. Steinman; Michael T. Thompson

2002-01-01

Three interpretations of the simple moving average estimator, as applied to the USDA Forest Service's annual forest inventory design, are presented. A corresponding approach to composite estimation over arbitrarily defined land areas and time intervals is given for each interpretation, under the assumption that the investigator is armed with only the spatial/...

GIS Tools to Estimate Average Annual Daily Traffic

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This project presents five tools that were created for a geographical information system to estimate Annual Average Daily : Traffic using linear regression. Three of the tools can be used to prepare spatial data for linear regression. One tool can be...

Spatial-temporal models for improved county-level annual estimates

Treesearch

Francis Roesch

2009-01-01

The consumers of data derived from extensive forest inventories often seek annual estimates at a finer spatial scale than that which the inventory was designed to provide. This paper discusses a few model-based and model-assisted estimators to consider for county level attributes that can be applied when the sample would otherwise be inadequate for producing low-...

Estimating forest conversion rates with annual forest inventory data

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2009-01-01

The rate of land-use conversion from forest to nonforest or natural forest to forest plantation is of interest for forest certification purposes and also as part of the process of assessing forest sustainability. Conversion rates can be estimated from remeasured inventory plots in general, but the emphasis here is on annual inventory data. A new estimator is proposed...

Estimation of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 1992-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelin, Gail P.; Stone, Wesley W.

2013-01-01

A method was developed to calculate annual county level pesticide use for selected herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides applied to agricultural crops grown in the conterminous United States from 1992 through 2009. Pesticide-use data compiled by proprietary surveys of farm operations located within Crop Reporting Districts were used in conjunction with annual harvested-crop acreage reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to calculate use rates per harvested crop acre, or an 'estimated pesticide use' (EPest) rate, for each crop by year. Pesticide-use data were not available for all Crop Reporting Districts and years. When data were unavailable for a Crop Reporting District in a particular year, EPest extrapolated rates were calculated from adjoining or nearby Crop Reporting Districts to ensure that pesticide use was estimated for all counties that reported harvested-crop acreage. EPest rates were applied to county harvested-crop acreage differently to obtain EPest-low and EPest-high estimates of pesticide-use for counties and states, with the exception of use estimates for California, which were taken from annual Department of Pesticide Regulation Pesticide Use Reports. Annual EPest-low and EPest-high use totals were compared with other published pesticide-use reports for selected pesticides, crops, and years. EPest-low and EPest-high national totals for five of seven herbicides were in close agreement with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Pesticide Use Data estimates, but greater than most NASS national totals. A second set of analyses compared EPest and NASS annual state totals and state-by-crop totals for selected crops. Overall, EPest and NASS use totals were not significantly different for the majority of crop-stateyear combinations evaluated. Furthermore, comparisons of EPest and NASS use estimates for most pesticides had rank correlation coefficients greater than 0.75 and median

Annual updating of plantation inventory estimates using hybrid models

Treesearch

Peter Snowdon

2000-01-01

Data for Pinus radiata D. Don grown in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are used to show that annual indices of growth potential can be successfully incorporated into Schumacher projection models of stand basal area growth. Significant reductions in the error mean squares of the models can be obtained by including an annual growth index derived...

Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

2015-01-01

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Alaska Airlines Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Alaska Airlines. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that between 8,000 and 12,000 gallons of fuel and 900 to 1,300 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Alaska Airlines in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Alaska TASAR requests peaked at four to eight requests per hour in high-altitude Seattle center sectors south of Seattle-Tacoma airport.

Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Virgin America Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis

PubMed Central

Clegg, Limin X; Hankey, Benjamin F; Tiwari, Ram; Feuer, Eric J; Edwards, Brenda K

2009-01-01

Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate—that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:19856324

Estimates of Annual Climatic Water Need in Introductory Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Currey, Donald R.

1976-01-01

This paper compares briefly, within the regional context of the western United States, several of the more readily adoptable models that are being used or could be used to provide estimates of annual climatic water need appropriate to macroscale applications in introductory geography courses. (Author)

Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

2018-03-01

Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick Zanden,; Suzanne P. Anderson,; Striegl, Robert G.

2012-01-01

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km3 year–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 109 and 1.42 × 109 g year–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 109 and 5.40 × 109 g year–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions.

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

Annual Corn Yield Estimation through Multi-temporal MODIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Y.; Zheng, B.; Campbell, J. B.

2013-12-01

This research employed 13 years of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate annual corn yield for the Midwest of the United States. The overall objective of this study was to examine if annual corn yield could be accurately predicted using MODIS time-series NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and ancillary data such monthly precipitation and temperature. MODIS-NDVI 16-Day composite images were acquired from the USGS EROS Data Center for calendar years 2000 to 2012. For the same time-period, county level corn yield statistics were obtained from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The monthly precipitation and temperature measures were derived from Precipitation-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate data. A cropland mask was derived using 2006 National Land Cover Database. For each county and within the cropland mask, the MODIS-NDVI time-series data and PRISM climate data were spatially averaged, at their respective time steps. We developed a random forest predictive model with the MODIS-NDVI and climate data as predictors and corn yield as response. To assess the model accuracy, we used twelve years of data as training and the remaining year as hold-out testing set. The training and testing procedures were repeated 13 times. The R2 ranged from 0.72 to 0.83 for testing years. It was also found that the inclusion of climate data did not improve the model predictive performance. MODIS-NDVI time-series data alone might provide sufficient information for county level corn yield prediction.

Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

PubMed

Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-02-01

To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

Gap filling strategies and error in estimating annual soil respiration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil respiration (Rsoil) is one of the largest CO2 fluxes in the global carbon (C) cycle. Estimation of annual Rsoil requires extrapolation of survey measurements or gap-filling of automated records to produce a complete time series. While many gap-filling methodologies have been employed, there is ...

An estimated 400-800 million tons of prey are annually killed by the global spider community.

PubMed

Nyffeler, Martin; Birkhofer, Klaus

2017-04-01

Spiders have been suspected to be one of the most important groups of natural enemies of insects worldwide. To document the impact of the global spider community as insect predators, we present estimates of the biomass of annually killed insect prey. Our estimates assessed with two different methods suggest that the annual prey kill of the global spider community is in the range of 400-800 million metric tons (fresh weight), with insects and collembolans composing >90% of the captured prey. This equals approximately 1‰ of the global terrestrial net primary production. Spiders associated with forests and grasslands account for >95% of the annual prey kill of the global spider community, whereas spiders in other habitats are rather insignificant contributors over a full year. The spider communities associated with annual crops contribute less than 2% to the global annual prey kill. This, however, can be partly explained by the fact that annual crop fields are "disturbed habitats" with a low buildup of spider biomass and that agrobiont spiders often only kill prey over short time periods in a year. Our estimates are supported by the published results of exclusion experiments, showing that the number of herbivorous/detritivorous insects and collembolans increased significantly after spider removal from experimental plots. The presented estimates of the global annual prey kill and the relative contribution of spider predation in different biomes improve the general understanding of spider ecology and provide a first assessment of the global impact of this very important predator group.

An estimated 400-800 million tons of prey are annually killed by the global spider community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyffeler, Martin; Birkhofer, Klaus

2017-04-01

Spiders have been suspected to be one of the most important groups of natural enemies of insects worldwide. To document the impact of the global spider community as insect predators, we present estimates of the biomass of annually killed insect prey. Our estimates assessed with two different methods suggest that the annual prey kill of the global spider community is in the range of 400-800 million metric tons (fresh weight), with insects and collembolans composing >90% of the captured prey. This equals approximately 1‰ of the global terrestrial net primary production. Spiders associated with forests and grasslands account for >95% of the annual prey kill of the global spider community, whereas spiders in other habitats are rather insignificant contributors over a full year. The spider communities associated with annual crops contribute less than 2% to the global annual prey kill. This, however, can be partly explained by the fact that annual crop fields are "disturbed habitats" with a low buildup of spider biomass and that agrobiont spiders often only kill prey over short time periods in a year. Our estimates are supported by the published results of exclusion experiments, showing that the number of herbivorous/detritivorous insects and collembolans increased significantly after spider removal from experimental plots. The presented estimates of the global annual prey kill and the relative contribution of spider predation in different biomes improve the general understanding of spider ecology and provide a first assessment of the global impact of this very important predator group.

Transportation Planning and Research : ANNUAL WORK PROGRAM AND COST ESTIMATE, 2018

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

This document is the section-by-section ANNUAL WORK PROGRAM AND COST ESTIMATE for the agency whose MISSION is to provide excellence in transportation planning through an inclusive and comprehensive planning process that provides products, services, a...

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and development of annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kula, Stephanie P.

2013-01-01

This report presents the results of a study to develop methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and for determining annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio streams. Regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating 10-year recurrence-interval (10-percent annual-nonexceedance probability) low-flow yields, in cubic feet per second per square mile, with averaging periods of 1, 7, 30, and 90-day(s), and for estimating the yield corresponding to the long-term 80-percent duration flow. These equations, which estimate low-flow yields as a function of a streamflow-variability index, are based on previously published low-flow statistics for 79 long-term continuous-record streamgages with at least 10 years of data collected through water year 1997. When applied to the calibration dataset, average absolute percent errors for the regression equations ranged from 15.8 to 42.0 percent. The regression results have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats application for Ohio (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ohio.html) in the form of a yield grid to facilitate estimation of the corresponding streamflow statistics in cubic feet per second. Logistic-regression equations also were developed and incorporated into the USGS StreamStats application for Ohio for selected low-flow statistics to help identify occurrences of zero-valued statistics. Quantiles of daily and 7-day mean streamflows were determined for annual and annual-seasonal (September–November) periods for each complete climatic year of streamflow-gaging station record for 110 selected streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of record. The quantiles determined for each climatic year were the 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 25-, 20-, 10-, 5-, 2-, and 1-percent exceedance streamflows. Selected exceedance percentiles of the annual-exceedance percentiles were subsequently computed and tabulated to help facilitate consideration of the

Using remotely sensed imagery to estimate potential annual pollutant loads in river basins.

PubMed

He, Bin; Oki, Kazuo; Wang, Yi; Oki, Taikan

2009-01-01

Land cover changes around river basins have caused serious environmental degradation in global surface water areas, in which the direct monitoring and numerical modeling is inherently difficult. Prediction of pollutant loads is therefore crucial to river environmental management under the impact of climate change and intensified human activities. This research analyzed the relationship between land cover types estimated from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery and the potential annual pollutant loads of river basins in Japan. Then an empirical approach, which estimates annual pollutant loads directly from satellite imagery and hydrological data, was investigated. Six water quality indicators were examined, including total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), suspended sediment (SS), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and Dissolved Oxygen (DO). The pollutant loads of TN, TP, SS, BOD, COD, and DO were then estimated for 30 river basins in Japan. Results show that the proposed simulation technique can be used to predict the pollutant loads of river basins in Japan. These results may be useful in establishing total maximum annual pollutant loads and developing best management strategies for surface water pollution at river basin scale.

Estimation of annual average daily traffic for off-system roads in Florida

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-28

Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is extremely important in traffic planning and operations for the state departments of transportation (DOTs), because AADT provides information for the planning of new road construction, determination...

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew; Wang, Li; Niu, Zheng

2015-11-01

Soil respiration (Rs), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual Rs at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual Rs estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zone soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites. In addition, a multicollinearity problem among LST-night, root-zone soil moisture, and plant photosynthesis factor was effectively avoided by selecting the LST-night-driven model. Cross validation showed that temporal variation in Rs was captured by the LST-night-driven model with a mean absolute error below 1 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 at both forest sites. An obvious overestimation that occurred in 2005 and 2007 at the Missouri Ozark site reduced the evaluation accuracy of cross validation because of summer drought. However, no significant difference was found between the Arrhenius-type function driven by LST-night and the function considering LST-night and root-zone soil moisture. This finding indicated that the contribution of soil moisture to Rs was relatively small at our multiyear data set. To predict intersite Rs, maximum leaf area index (LAImax) was used as an upscaling factor to calibrate the site-specific reference respiration

24 CFR 1000.518 - When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual performance report?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES Recipient Monitoring, Oversight and Accountability § 1000.518 When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual...

24 CFR 1000.518 - When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual performance report?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES Recipient Monitoring, Oversight and Accountability § 1000.518 When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual...

24 CFR 1000.518 - When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual performance report?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES Recipient Monitoring, Oversight and Accountability § 1000.518 When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual...

24 CFR 1000.518 - When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual performance report?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES Recipient Monitoring, Oversight and Accountability § 1000.518 When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual...

24 CFR 1000.518 - When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual performance report?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES Recipient Monitoring, Oversight and Accountability § 1000.518 When must a recipient obtain public comment on its annual...

Methods to estimate annual mean spring discharge to the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.

1995-01-01

Many individual springs and groups of springs discharge water from volcanic rocks that form the north canyon wall of the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill. Previous estimates of annual mean discharge from these springs have been used to understand the hydrology of the eastern part of the Snake River Plain. Four methods that were used in previous studies or developed to estimate annual mean discharge since 1902 were (1) water-budget analysis of the Snake River; (2) correlation of water-budget estimates with discharge from 10 index springs; (3) determination of the combined discharge from individual springs or groups of springs by using annual discharge measurements of 8 springs, gaging-station records of 4 springs and 3 sites on the Malad River, and regression equations developed from 5 of the measured springs; and (4) a single regression equation that correlates gaging-station records of 2 springs with historical water-budget estimates. Comparisons made among the four methods of estimating annual mean spring discharges from 1951 to 1959 and 1963 to 1980 indicated that differences were about equivalent to a measurement error of 2 to 3 percent. The method that best demonstrates the response of annual mean spring discharge to changes in ground-water recharge and discharge is method 3, which combines the measurements and regression estimates of discharge from individual springs.

Estimates of average annual tributary inflow to the lower Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.

1987-01-01

Estimates of tributary inflow by basin or area and by surface water or groundwater are presented in this report and itemized by subreaches in tabular form. Total estimated average annual tributary inflow to the Colorado River between Hoover Dam and Mexico, excluding the measured tributaries, is 96,000 acre-ft or about 1% of the 7.5 million acre-ft/yr of Colorado River water apportioned to the States in the lower Colorado River basin. About 62% of the tributary inflow originates in Arizona, 30% in California, and 8% in Nevada. Tributary inflow is a small component in the water budget for the river. Most of the quantities of unmeasured tributary inflow were estimated in previous studies and were based on mean annual precipitation for 1931-60. Because mean annual precipitation for 1951-80 did not differ significantly from that of 1931-60, these tributary inflow estimates are assumed to be valid for use in 1984. Measured average annual runoff per unit drainage area on the Bill Williams River has remained the same. Surface water inflow from unmeasured tributaries is infrequent and is not captured in surface reservoirs in any of the States; it flows to the Colorado River gaging stations. Estimates of groundwater inflow to the Colorad River valley. Average annual runoff can be used in a water budget; although in wet years, runoff may be large enough to affect the calculation of consumptive use and to be estimated from hydrographs for the Colorado River valley are based on groundwater recharge estimates in the bordering areas, which have not significantly changed through time. In most areas adjacent to the Colorado River valley, groundwater pumpage is small and pumping has not significantly affected the quantity of groundwater discharged to the Colorado River valley. In some areas where groundwater pumpage exceeds the quantity of groundwater discharge and water levels have declined, the quantity of discharge probably has decreased and groundwater inflow to the Colorado

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, D; Seligson, H; Wills, C.J.

2016-01-01

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7  billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Huang, Ni; Black, T. Andrew; ...

2015-11-23

Soil respiration (R s), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this article, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual R s at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest).

Temporal variability patterns in solar radiation estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vindel, José M.; Navarro, Ana A.; Valenzuela, Rita X.; Zarzalejo, Luis F.

2016-06-01

In this work, solar radiation estimations obtained from a satellite and a numerical weather prediction model in mainland Spain have been compared. Similar comparisons have been formerly carried out, but in this case, the methodology used is different: the temporal variability of both sources of estimation has been compared with the annual evolution of the radiation associated to the different study climate zones. The methodology is based on obtaining behavior patterns, using a Principal Component Analysis, following the annual evolution of solar radiation estimations. Indeed, the adjustment degree to these patterns in each point (assessed from maps of correlation) may be associated with the annual radiation variation (assessed from the interquartile range), which is associated, in turn, to different climate zones. In addition, the goodness of each estimation source has been assessed comparing it with data obtained from the radiation measurements in ground by pyranometers. For the study, radiation data from Satellite Application Facilities and data corresponding to the reanalysis carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have been used.

Estimating inter-annual diversity of seasonal agricultural area using multi-temporal resourcesat data.

PubMed

Sreenivas, K; Sekhar, N Seshadri; Saxena, Manoj; Paliwal, R; Pathak, S; Porwal, M C; Fyzee, M A; Rao, S V C Kameswara; Wadodkar, M; Anasuya, T; Murthy, M S R; Ravisankar, T; Dadhwal, V K

2015-09-15

The present study aims at analysis of spatial and temporal variability in agricultural land cover during 2005-6 and 2011-12 from an ongoing program of annual land use mapping using multidate Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data aboard Resourcesat-1 and 2. About 640-690 multi-temporal AWiFS quadrant data products per year (depending on cloud cover) were co-registered and radiometrically normalized to prepare state (administrative unit) mosaics. An 18-fold classification was adopted in this project. Rule-based techniques along with maximum-likelihood algorithm were employed to deriving land cover information as well as changes within agricultural land cover classes. The agricultural land cover classes include - kharif (June-October), rabi (November-April), zaid (April-June), area sown more than once, fallow lands and plantation crops. Mean kappa accuracy of these estimates varied from 0.87 to 0.96 for various classes. Standard error of estimate has been computed for each class annually and the area estimates were corrected using standard error of estimate. The corrected estimates range between 99 and 116 Mha for kharif and 77-91 Mha for rabi. The kharif, rabi and net sown area were aggregated at 10 km × 10 km grid on annual basis for entire India and CV was computed at each grid cell using temporal spatially-aggregated area as input. This spatial variability of agricultural land cover classes was analyzed across meteorological zones, irrigated command areas and administrative boundaries. The results indicate that out of various states/meteorological zones, Punjab was consistently cropped during kharif as well as rabi seasons. Out of all irrigated commands, Tawa irrigated command was consistently cropped during rabi season. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual Estimated Minimum School Program of Utah School Districts, 1984-85.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utah State Office of Education, Salt Lake City. School Finance and Business Section.

This bulletin presents both the statistical and financial data of the Estimated Annual State-Supported Minimum School Program for the 40 school districts of the State of Utah for the 1984-85 school year. It is published for the benefit of those interested in research into the minimum school programs of the various Utah school districts. A brief…

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Famiglietti, J.S.

2000-01-01

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew

Here, soil respiration (R s), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual R s at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual R s estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zonemore » soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites.« less

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

PubMed

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Annual sediment flux estimates in a tidal strait using surrogate measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2006-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment flux estimates through Carquinez Strait (the seaward boundary of Suisun Bay, California) are provided based on surrogate measurements for advective, dispersive, and Stokes drift flux. The surrogates are landward watershed discharge, suspended-sediment concentration at one location in the Strait, and the longitudinal salinity gradient. The first two surrogates substitute for tidally averaged discharge and velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in the Strait, thereby providing advective flux estimates, while Stokes drift is estimated with suspended-sediment concentration alone. Dispersive flux is estimated using the product of longitudinal salinity gradient and the root-mean-square value of velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration as an added surrogate variable. Cross-sectional measurements validated the use of surrogates during the monitoring period. During high freshwater flow advective and dispersive flux were in the seaward direction, while landward dispersive flux dominated and advective flux approached zero during low freshwater flow. Stokes drift flux was consistently in the landward direction. Wetter than average years led to net export from Suisun Bay, while dry years led to net sediment import. Relatively low watershed sediment fluxes to Suisun Bay contribute to net export during the wet season, while gravitational circulation in Carquinez Strait and higher suspended-sediment concentrations in San Pablo Bay (seaward end of Carquinez Strait) are responsible for the net import of sediment during the dry season. Annual predictions of suspended-sediment fluxes, using these methods, will allow for a sediment budget for Suisun Bay, which has implications for marsh restoration and nutrient/contaminant transport. These methods also provide a general framework for estimating sediment fluxes in estuarine environments, where temporal and spatial variability of transport are large. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Estimated Annual Numbers of Foodborne Pathogen-Associated Illnesses, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, France, 2008-2013.

PubMed

Van Cauteren, Dieter; Le Strat, Yann; Sommen, Cécile; Bruyand, Mathias; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Da Silva, Nathalie Jourdan; Couturier, Elisabeth; Fournet, Nelly; de Valk, Henriette; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2017-09-01

Estimates of the annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths are needed to set priorities for surveillance, prevention, and control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine such estimates for 2008-2013 in France. We considered 15 major foodborne pathogens (10 bacteria, 3 viruses, and 2 parasites) and estimated that each year, the pathogens accounted for 1.28-2.23 million illnesses, 16,500-20,800 hospitalizations, and 250 deaths. Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., and norovirus accounted for >70% of all foodborne pathogen-associated illnesses and hospitalizations; nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were the main causes of foodborne pathogen-associated deaths; and hepatitis E virus appeared to be a previously unrecognized foodborne pathogen causing ≈68,000 illnesses in France every year. The substantial annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths in France highlight the need for food-safety policymakers to prioritize foodborne disease prevention and control strategies.

Mean annual runoff and peak flow estimates based on channel geometry of streams in southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

Equations using channel-geometry measurements were developed for estimating mean runoff and peak flows of ungaged streams in southeastern Montana. Two separate sets of esitmating equations were developed for determining mean annual runoff: one for perennial streams and one for ephemeral and intermittent streams. Data from 29 gaged sites on perennial streams and 21 gaged sites on ephemeral and intermittent streams were used in these analyses. Data from 78 gaged sites were used in the peak-flow analyses. Southeastern Montana was divided into three regions and separate multiple-regression equations for each region were developed that relate channel dimensions to peak discharge having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Channel-geometery relations were developed using measurements of the active-channel width and bankfull width. Active-channel width and bankfull width were the most significant channel features for estimating mean annual runoff for al types of streams. Use of this method requires that onsite measurements be made of channel width. The standard error of estimate for predicting mean annual runoff ranged from about 38 to 79 percent. The standard error of estimate relating active-channel width or bankfull width to peak flow ranged from about 37 to 115 percent. (USGS)

Annual global tree cover estimated by fusing optical and SAR satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

2017-12-01

Tree cover defined structurally as the proportional, vertically projected area of vegetation (including leaves, stems, branches, etc.) of woody plants above a given height affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Tree cover provides a measurable attribute upon which forest cover may be defined. Changes in tree cover over time can be used to monitor and retrieve site-specific histories of forest disturbance, succession, and degradation. Measurements of Earth's tree cover have been produced at regional, national, and global extents. However, most representations are static, and those for which multiple time periods have been produced are neither intended nor adequate for consistent, long-term monitoring. Moreover, although a substantial proportion of change has been shown to occur at resolutions below 250 m, existing long-term, Landsat-resolution datasets are either produced as static layers or with annual, five- or ten-year temporal resolution. We have developed an algorithms to retrieve seamless and consistent, sub-hectare resolution estimates of tree-canopy from optical and radar satellite data sources (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel-2, and ALOS-PALSAR). Our approach to estimation enables assimilation of multiple data sources and produces estimates of both cover and its uncertainty at the scale of pixels. It has generated the world's first Landsat-based percent tree cover dataset in 2013. Our previous algorithms are being adapted to produce prototype percent-tree and water-cover layers globally in 2000, 2005, and 2010—as well as annually over North and South America from 2010 to 2015—from passive-optical (Landsat and Sentinel-2) and SAR measurements. Generating a global, annual dataset is beyond the scope of this support; however, North and South America represent all of the world's major biomes and so offer the complete global range of environmental sources of error and

Methods for Estimating Annual Wastewater Nutrient Loads in the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Gerard; Tervelt, Larinda; Donehoo, William

2007-01-01

This report describes an approach for estimating annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads from point-source dischargers in the southeastern United States. Nutrient load estimates for 2002 were used in the calibration and application of a regional nutrient model, referred to as the SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) watershed model. Loads from dischargers permitted under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System were calculated using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Permit Compliance System database and individual state databases. Site information from both state and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency databases, including latitude and longitude and monitored effluent data, was compiled into a project database. For sites with a complete effluent-monitoring record, effluent-flow and nutrient-concentration data were used to develop estimates of annual point-source nitrogen and phosphorus loads. When flow data were available but nutrient-concentration data were missing or incomplete, typical pollutant-concentration values of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were used to estimate load. In developing typical pollutant-concentration values, the major factors assumed to influence wastewater nutrient-concentration variability were the size of the discharger (the amount of flow), the season during which discharge occurred, and the Standard Industrial Classification code of the discharger. One insight gained from this study is that in order to gain access to flow, concentration, and location data, close communication and collaboration are required with the agencies that collect and manage the data. In addition, the accuracy and usefulness of the load estimates depend on the willingness of the states and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide guidance and review for at least a subset of the load estimates that may be problematic.

Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Northeastern Illinois.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, : 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years,...

Estimation of the annual flow and stock of marine debris in South Korea for management purposes.

PubMed

Jang, Yong Chang; Lee, Jongmyoung; Hong, Sunwook; Mok, Jin Yong; Kim, Kyoung Shin; Lee, Yun Jeong; Choi, Hyun-Woo; Kang, Hongmook; Lee, Sukhui

2014-09-15

The annual flow and stock of marine debris in the Sea of Korea was estimated by summarizing previous survey results and integrating them with other relevant information to underpin the national marine debris management plan. The annual inflow of marine debris was estimated to be 91,195 tons [32,825 tons (36% of the total) from sources on land and 58,370 tons (64%) from ocean sources]. As of the end of 2012, the total stock of marine debris on all South Korean coasts (12,029 tons), the seabed (137,761 tons), and in the water column (2451 tons) was estimated to be 152,241 tons. In 2012, 42,595 tons of marine debris was collected from coasts, seabeds, and the water column. This is a very rare case study that estimated the amount of marine debris at a national level, the results of which provide essential information for the development of efficient marine debris management policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation dose to technologists per nuclear medicine examination and estimation of annual dose.

PubMed

Bayram, Tuncay; Yilmaz, A Hakan; Demir, Mustafa; Sonmez, Bircan

2011-03-01

Conventional diagnostic nuclear medicine applications have been continuously increasing in most nuclear medicine departments in Turkey, but to our knowledge no one has studied the doses to technologists who perform nuclear medicine procedures. Most nuclear medicine laboratories do not have separate control rooms for technologists, who are quite close to the patient during data acquisition. Technologists must therefore stay behind lead shields while performing their task if they are to reduce the radiation dose received. The aim of this study was to determine external radiation doses to technologists during nuclear medicine procedures with and without a lead shield. Another aim was to investigate the occupational annual external radiation doses to Turkish technologists. This study used a Geiger-Müller detector to measure dose rates to technologists at various distances from patients (0.25, 0.50, 1, and 2 m and behind a lead shield) and determined the average time spent by technologists at these distances. Deep-dose equivalents to technologists were obtained. The following conventional nuclear medicine procedures were considered: thyroid scintigraphy performed using (99m)Tc pertechnetate, whole-body bone scanning performed using (99m)Tc-methylene diphosphonate, myocardial perfusion scanning performed using (99m)Tc-methoxyisobutyl isonitrile, and (201)Tl (thallous chloride) and renal scanning performed using (99m)Tc-dimercaptosuccinic acid. The measured deep-dose equivalent to technologists per procedure was within the range of 0.13 ± 0.05 to 0.43 ± 0.17 μSv using a lead shield and 0.21 ± 0.07 to 1.01 ± 0.46 μSv without a lead shield. Also, the annual individual dose to a technologist performing only a particular scintigraphic procedure throughout a year was estimated. For a total of 95 clinical cases (71 patients), effective external radiation doses to technologists were found to be within the permissible levels. This study showed that a 2-mm lead shield

Estimated Annual Numbers of Foodborne Pathogen–Associated Illnesses, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, France, 2008–2013

PubMed Central

Le Strat, Yann; Sommen, Cécile; Bruyand, Mathias; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Da Silva, Nathalie Jourdan; Couturier, Elisabeth; Fournet, Nelly; de Valk, Henriette; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2017-01-01

Estimates of the annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths are needed to set priorities for surveillance, prevention, and control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine such estimates for 2008–2013 in France. We considered 15 major foodborne pathogens (10 bacteria, 3 viruses, and 2 parasites) and estimated that each year, the pathogens accounted for 1.28–2.23 million illnesses, 16,500–20,800 hospitalizations, and 250 deaths. Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., and norovirus accounted for >70% of all foodborne pathogen–associated illnesses and hospitalizations; nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were the main causes of foodborne pathogen–associated deaths; and hepatitis E virus appeared to be a previously unrecognized foodborne pathogen causing ≈68,000 illnesses in France every year. The substantial annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths in France highlight the need for food-safety policymakers to prioritize foodborne disease prevention and control strategies. PMID:28820137

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asquith, W. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2000-04-01

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed "annual-maxima centered," specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.

Estimating annual suspended-sediment loads in the northern and central Appalachian Coal region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

1985-01-01

Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating the annual suspended-sediment load, for a given year, from small to medium-sized basins in the northern and central parts of the Appalachian coal region. The regression analysis was performed with data for land use, basin characteristics, streamflow, rainfall, and suspended-sediment load for 15 sites in the region. Two variables, the maximum mean-daily discharge occurring within the year and the annual peak discharge, explained much of the variation in the annual suspended-sediment load. Separate equations were developed employing each of these discharge variables. Standard errors for both equations are relatively large, which suggests that future predictions will probably have a low level of precision. This level of precision, however, may be acceptable for certain purposes. It is therefore left to the user to asses whether the level of precision provided by these equations is acceptable for the intended application.

Preliminary estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 2010-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.; Stone, Wesley W.

2013-01-01

This report provides preliminary estimates of annual agricultural use of 374 pesticide compounds in counties of the conterminous United States in 2010 and 2011, compiled by means of methods described in Thelin and Stone (2013). U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) county-level data for harvested-crop acreage were used in conjunction with proprietary Crop Reporting District (CRD)-level pesticide-use data to estimate county-level pesticide use. Estimated pesticide use (EPest) values were calculated with both the EPest-high and EPest-low methods. The distinction between the EPest-high method and the EPest-low method is that there are more counties with estimated pesticide use for EPest-high compared to EPest-low, owing to differing assumptions about missing survey data (Thelin and Stone, 2013). Preliminary estimates in this report will be revised upon availability of updated crop acreages in the 2012 Agricultural Census, to be published by the USDA in 2014. In addition, estimates for 2008 and 2009 previously published by Stone (2013) will be updated subsequent to the 2012 Agricultural Census release. Estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use are provided as downloadable, tab-delimited files, which are organized by compound, year, state Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code, county FIPS code, and kg (amount in kilograms).

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Bias Correction of MODIS AOD using DragonNET to obtain improved estimation of PM2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, B.; Malakar, N. K.; Atia, A.; Moshary, F.; Ahmed, S. A.; Oo, M. M.

2014-12-01

MODIS AOD retreivals using the Dark Target algorithm is strongly affected by the underlying surface reflection properties. In particular, the operational algorithms make use of surface parameterizations trained on global datasets and therefore do not account properly for urban surface differences. This parameterization continues to show an underestimation of the surface reflection which results in a general over-biasing in AOD retrievals. Recent results using the Dragon-Network datasets as well as high resolution retrievals in the NYC area illustrate that this is even more significant at the newest C006 3 km retrievals. In the past, we used AERONET observation in the City College to obtain bias-corrected AOD, but the homogeneity assumptions using only one site for the region is clearly an issue. On the other hand, DragonNET observations provide ample opportunities to obtain better tuning the surface corrections while also providing better statistical validation. In this study we present a neural network method to obtain bias correction of the MODIS AOD using multiple factors including surface reflectivity at 2130nm, sun-view geometrical factors and land-class information. These corrected AOD's are then used together with additional WRF meteorological factors to improve estimates of PM2.5. Efforts to explore the portability to other urban areas will be discussed. In addition, annual surface ratio maps will be developed illustrating that among the land classes, the urban pixels constitute the largest deviations from the operational model.

Estimation of the indoor radon and the annual effective dose from granite samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sola, P.; Srinuttrakul, W.; Kewsuwan, P.

2015-05-01

Inhalation of radon and thoron daughters increases the risk of lung cancer. The main sources of indoor radon are building materials. The aim of this research is to estimate the indoor radon and the annual effective dose from the building materials. Eighteen granite samples bought from the markets in Thailand were measured using an ionization chamber (ATMOS 12 DPX) for the radon concentration in air. Radon exhalation rates were calculated from the radon concentration in chamber. The indoor radon from the granite samples ranged from 10.04 to 55.32 Bq·m-2·h-1 with an average value of 20.30 Bq·m-2·h-1 and the annual effective dose ranged from 0.25 to 1.39 mSv·y-1 with an average value of 0.48 mSv·y-1. The results showed that the annual effective doses of three granite samples were higher than the annual exposure limit for the general public (1 mSv·y-1) recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). In addition, the relationship between the colours and radon exhalation rates of granite samples was also explained.

Using "snapshot" measurements of CH4 fluxes from peatlands to estimate annual budgets: interpolation vs. modelling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Sophie M.; Baird, Andy J.

2016-04-01

There is growing interest in estimating annual budgets of peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges. Such budgeting is required for calculating peatland carbon balance and the radiative forcing impact of peatlands on climate. There have been multiple approaches used to estimate CO2 budgets; however, there is a limited literature regarding the modelling of annual CH4 budgets. Using data collected from flux chamber tests in an area of blanket peatland in North Wales, we compared annual estimates of peatland-atmosphere CH4 emissions using an interpolation approach and an additive and multiplicative modelling approach. Flux-chamber measurements represent a snapshot of the conditions on a particular site. In contrast to CO2, most studies that have estimated the time-integrated flux of CH4 have not used models. Typically, linear interpolation is used to estimate CH4 fluxes during the time periods between flux-chamber measurements. It is unclear how much error is involved with such a simple integration method. CH4 fluxes generally show a rise followed by a fall through the growing season that may be captured reasonably well by interpolation, provided there are sufficiently frequent measurements. However, day-to-day and week-to-week variability is also often evident in CH4 flux data, and will not necessarily be properly represented by interpolation. Our fits of the CH4 flux models yielded r2 > 0.5 in 38 of the 48 models constructed, with 55% of these having a weighted rw2 > 0.4. Comparison of annualised CH4 fluxes estimated by interpolation and modelling reveals no correlation between the two data sets; indeed, in some cases even the sign of the flux differs. The difference between the methods seems also to be related to the size of the flux - for modest annual fluxes there is a fairly even scatter of points around the 1:1 line, whereas when the modelled fluxes are high, the corresponding interpolated fluxes tend to be low. We consider the

The effects of sample scheduling and sample numbers on estimates of the annual fluxes of suspended sediment in fluvial systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horowitz, Arthur J.; Clarke, Robin T.; Merten, Gustavo Henrique

2015-01-01

Since the 1970s, there has been both continuing and growing interest in developing accurate estimates of the annual fluvial transport (fluxes and loads) of suspended sediment and sediment-associated chemical constituents. This study provides an evaluation of the effects of manual sample numbers (from 4 to 12 year−1) and sample scheduling (random-based, calendar-based and hydrology-based) on the precision, bias and accuracy of annual suspended sediment flux estimates. The evaluation is based on data from selected US Geological Survey daily suspended sediment stations in the USA and covers basins ranging in area from just over 900 km2 to nearly 2 million km2 and annual suspended sediment fluxes ranging from about 4 Kt year−1 to about 200 Mt year−1. The results appear to indicate that there is a scale effect for random-based and calendar-based sampling schemes, with larger sample numbers required as basin size decreases. All the sampling schemes evaluated display some level of positive (overestimates) or negative (underestimates) bias. The study further indicates that hydrology-based sampling schemes are likely to generate the most accurate annual suspended sediment flux estimates with the fewest number of samples, regardless of basin size. This type of scheme seems most appropriate when the determination of suspended sediment concentrations, sediment-associated chemical concentrations, annual suspended sediment and annual suspended sediment-associated chemical fluxes only represent a few of the parameters of interest in multidisciplinary, multiparameter monitoring programmes. The results are just as applicable to the calibration of autosamplers/suspended sediment surrogates currently used to measure/estimate suspended sediment concentrations and ultimately, annual suspended sediment fluxes, because manual samples are required to adjust the sample data/measurements generated by these techniques so that they provide depth-integrated and cross

Preliminary estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.

2015-10-05

Thelin, G.P., and Stone, W.W., 2013, Estimation of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 1992–2009: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5009, 54 p.

Estimating botanical composition by the dry-weight-rank method in California's annual grasslands

Treesearch

Raymond D. Ratliff; William E. Frost

1990-01-01

The dry-weight-rank method of estimating botanical composition on California's annual grasslands is a viable alternative to harvesting and sorting or methods using points. Two data sets of sorted species weights were available. One spanned nine years with quadrats harvested at peak of production. The second spanned one growing season with 20 harvest dates. Two...

Improving the quality of parameter estimates obtained from slug tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, J.J.; McElwee, C.D.; Liu, W.

1996-01-01

The slug test is one of the most commonly used field methods for obtaining in situ estimates of hydraulic conductivity. Despite its prevalence, this method has received criticism from many quarters in the ground-water community. This criticism emphasizes the poor quality of the estimated parameters, a condition that is primarily a product of the somewhat casual approach that is often employed in slug tests. Recently, the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) has pursued research directed it improving methods for the performance and analysis of slug tests. Based on extensive theoretical and field research, a series of guidelines have been proposed that should enable the quality of parameter estimates to be improved. The most significant of these guidelines are: (1) three or more slug tests should be performed at each well during a given test period; (2) two or more different initial displacements (Ho) should be used at each well during a test period; (3) the method used to initiate a test should enable the slug to be introduced in a near-instantaneous manner and should allow a good estimate of Ho to be obtained; (4) data-acquisition equipment that enables a large quantity of high quality data to be collected should be employed; (5) if an estimate of the storage parameter is needed, an observation well other than the test well should be employed; (6) the method chosen for analysis of the slug-test data should be appropriate for site conditions; (7) use of pre- and post-analysis plots should be an integral component of the analysis procedure, and (8) appropriate well construction parameters should be employed. Data from slug tests performed at a number of KGS field sites demonstrate the importance of these guidelines.

Estimation on the First Cycle of the Annual Forest Inventory System: Methods, Preliminary Results, and Observations

Treesearch

Mark H. Hansen; Gary J. Brand; Daniel G. Wendt; Ronald E. McRoberts

2001-01-01

The first year of annual FIA data collection in the North Central region was completed for 1999 in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. Estimates of timberland area, total growing-stock volume and growing-stock volume per acre are presented. These estimates are based on data from 1 year, collected at the base Federal inventory intensity, a lower intensity sample...

Obtaining Reliable Estimates of Ambulatory Physical Activity in People with Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Paul, Serene S; Ellis, Terry D; Dibble, Leland E; Earhart, Gammon M; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Cavanaugh, James T

2016-05-05

We determined the number of days required, and whether to include weekdays and/or weekends, to obtain reliable measures of ambulatory physical activity in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Ninety-two persons with PD wore a step activity monitor for seven days. The number of days required to obtain a reliable estimate of daily activity was determined from the mean intraclass correlation (ICC2,1) for all possible combinations of 1-6 consecutive days of monitoring. Two days of monitoring were sufficient to obtain reliable daily activity estimates (ICC2,1 > 0.9). Amount (p = 0.03) but not intensity (p = 0.13) of ambulatory activity was greater on weekdays than weekends. Activity prescription based on amount rather than intensity may be more appropriate for people with PD.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges for streams in Iowa, based on data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2013-01-01

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance-probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedance-probability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized least-squares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Thompson, Ronald E.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370

Annual and Weekly Incidence Rates of Influenza and Pediatric Diseases Estimated from Infectious Disease Surveillance Data in Japan, 2002-2005

PubMed Central

Kawado, Miyuki; Hashimoto, Shuji; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Izumida, Michiko; Ohta, Akiko; Tada, Yuki; Shigematsu, Mika; Yasui, Yoshinori; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Nagai, Masaki

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND The method for estimating incidence of infectious diseases from sentinel surveillance data has been proposed. In Japan, although the annual incidence rates of influenza and pediatric diseases estimated using the method were reported, their weekly incidence rates have not. METHODS The weekly sex- and age-specific numbers of cases in the sentinel medical institutions in the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases in Japan in 2002-2005 were used. Annual and weekly incidence rates of influenza and 12 pediatric diseases were estimated by the above-mentioned method, under the assumption that sentinels are randomly selected from all medical institutions. RESULTS The annual incidence rate of influenza in 2002-2005 was 57.7-142.6 per 1,000 population. The highest weekly incidence rate was 7.4 at week 8 in 2002, 14.9 at week 4 in 2003, 14.1 at week 5 in 2004, and 21.2 at week 9 in 2005. The annual incidence rate per 1,000 population of 0-14 years old in 2002-2005 was less than 5.0 for pertussis, rubella and measles, 293.2-320.8 for infectious gastroenteritis, and 5.3-89.6 for 8 other diseases. The highest weekly incidence rate was less than 1.0 for exanthem subitum, and was more than 5.0 for infectious gastroenteritis, hand-foot-mouth disease and herpangina. CONCLUSION We estimated annual and weekly incidence rates of influenza and pediatric diseases in Japan in 2002-2005, and described their temporal variation. PMID:18239340

Targeted estimation of nuisance parameters to obtain valid statistical inference.

PubMed

van der Laan, Mark J

2014-01-01

In order to obtain concrete results, we focus on estimation of the treatment specific mean, controlling for all measured baseline covariates, based on observing independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a subsequently assigned binary treatment, and a final outcome. The statistical model only assumes possible restrictions on the conditional distribution of treatment, given the covariates, the so-called propensity score. Estimators of the treatment specific mean involve estimation of the propensity score and/or estimation of the conditional mean of the outcome, given the treatment and covariates. In order to make these estimators asymptotically unbiased at any data distribution in the statistical model, it is essential to use data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters such as ensemble learning, and specifically super-learning. Because such estimators involve optimal trade-off of bias and variance w.r.t. the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter itself, they result in a sub-optimal bias/variance trade-off for the resulting real-valued estimator of the estimand. We demonstrate that additional targeting of the estimators of these nuisance parameters guarantees that this bias for the estimand is second order and thereby allows us to prove theorems that establish asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the treatment specific mean under regularity conditions. These insights result in novel targeted minimum loss-based estimators (TMLEs) that use ensemble learning with additional targeted bias reduction to construct estimators of the nuisance parameters. In particular, we construct collaborative TMLEs (C-TMLEs) with known influence curve allowing for statistical inference, even though these C-TMLEs involve variable selection for the propensity score based on a criterion that measures how effective the resulting fit of the propensity score is in removing bias for the estimand. As a particular special

Mean annual runoff and peak flow estimates based on channel geometry of streams in northeastern and western Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

Equations for estimating mean annual runoff and peak discharge from measurements of channel geometry were developed for western and northeastern Montana. The study area was divided into two regions for the mean annual runoff analysis, and separate multiple-regression equations were developed for each region. The active-channel width was determined to be the most important independent variable in each region. The standard error of estimate for the estimating equation using active-channel width was 61 percent in the Northeast Region and 38 percent in the West region. The study area was divided into six regions for the peak discharge analysis, and multiple regression equations relating channel geometry and basin characteristics to peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed for each region. The standard errors of estimate for the regression equations using only channel width as an independent variable ranged from 35 to 105 percent. The standard errors improved in four regions as basin characteristics were added to the estimating equations. (USGS)

Annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and PRISM precipitation for gaged basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Messinger, Terence; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-07-14

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and precipitation data from parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) were determined at 849 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations from Mississippi to New York and covered the period of 1900 to 2011. Only complete calendar years (January to December) of streamflow record at each gage were used to determine estimates of base flow, which is that part of streamflow attributed to groundwater discharge; such estimates can serve as a proxy for annual recharge. For each year, estimates of annual base flow, runoff, and base-flow index were determined using computer programs—PART, HYSEP, and BFI—that have automated the separation procedures. These streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods are provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox, which is a new program that provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Windows environment. Annual values of precipitation were estimated by calculating the average of cell values intercepted by basin boundaries where previously defined in the GAGES–II dataset. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration were then calculated from the difference between precipitation and streamflow.

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

PubMed

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

NMR permeability estimators in 'chalk' carbonate rocks obtained under different relaxation times and MICP size scalings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios, Edmilson Helton; Figueiredo, Irineu; Moss, Adam Keith; Pritchard, Timothy Neil; Glassborow, Brent Anthony; Guedes Domingues, Ana Beatriz; Bagueira de Vasconcellos Azeredo, Rodrigo

2016-07-01

The effect of the selection of different nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation times for permeability estimation is investigated for a set of fully brine-saturated rocks acquired from Cretaceous carbonate reservoirs in the North Sea and Middle East. Estimators that are obtained from the relaxation times based on the Pythagorean means are compared with estimators that are obtained from the relaxation times based on the concept of a cumulative saturation cut-off. Select portions of the longitudinal (T1) and transverse (T2) relaxation-time distributions are systematically evaluated by applying various cut-offs, analogous to the Winland-Pittman approach for mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) curves. Finally, different approaches to matching the NMR and MICP distributions using different mean-based scaling factors are validated based on the performance of the related size-scaled estimators. The good results that were obtained demonstrate possible alternatives to the commonly adopted logarithmic mean estimator and reinforce the importance of NMR-MICP integration to improving carbonate permeability estimates.

Analytical estimation of annual runoff distribution in ungauged seasonally dry basins based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, D.; Deidda, R.; Viola, F.

2017-11-01

The assessment of the mean annual runoff and its interannual variability in a basin is the first and fundamental task for several activities related to water resources management and water quality analysis. The scarcity of observed runoff data is a common problem worldwide so that the runoff estimation in ungauged basins is still an open question. In this context, the main aim of this work is to propose and test a simple tool able to estimate the probability distribution of the annual surface runoff in ungauged river basins in arid and semi-arid areas using a simplified Fu's parameterization of the Budyko's curve at regional scale. Starting from a method recently developed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible inter-annual change in basin water storage, we here generalize the application to any catchment where the parameter of the Fu's curve is known. Specifically, we provide a closed-form expression of the annual runoff distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, and the Fu's parameter. The proposed method is based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation and allows calculating the probability density function of annual runoff in seasonally dry arid and semi-arid geographic context around the world by taking advantage of simple easy-to-find climatic data and the many studies with estimates of the Fu's parameter worldwide. The computational simplicity of the proposed tool makes it a valuable supporting tool in the field of water resources assessment for practitioners, regional agencies and authorities.

Estimating distribution parameters of annual maximum streamflows in Johor, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mat Jan, Nur Amalina; Shabri, Ani

2017-01-01

TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to identify the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over seven stations in Johor, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: Three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and Pearson Type III (P3) distribution. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 methods for LN3 and P3 distributions. The performance of TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation and streamflow data over a station in Johor, Malaysia. The absolute error is used to test the influence of TL-moments methods on estimated probability distribution functions. From the cases in this study, the results show that TL-moments with four trimmed smallest values from the conceptual sample (TL-moments [4, 0]) of LN3 distribution was the most appropriate in most of the stations of the annual maximum streamflow series in Johor, Malaysia.

Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: Study designs that may help

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, M.R.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wood, L.A.; Cooper, R.J.

2004-01-01

Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site-fidelity to the previous year's territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site-fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area), the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture-mark-recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life-history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi-year capture-recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter-annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more "emigrants" are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01). However, given observed inter-annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore

Stability of individual loudness functions obtained by magnitude estimation and production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hellman, R. P.

1981-01-01

A correlational analysis of individual magnitude estimation and production exponents at the same frequency is performed, as is an analysis of individual exponents produced in different sessions by the same procedure across frequency (250, 1000, and 3000 Hz). Taken as a whole, the results show that individual exponent differences do not decrease by counterbalancing magnitude estimation with magnitude production and that individual exponent differences remain stable over time despite changes in stimulus frequency. Further results show that although individual magnitude estimation and production exponents do not necessarily obey the .6 power law, it is possible to predict the slope of an equal-sensation function averaged for a group of listeners from individual magnitude estimation and production data. On the assumption that individual listeners with sensorineural hearing also produce stable and reliable magnitude functions, it is also shown that the slope of the loudness-recruitment function measured by magnitude estimation and production can be predicted for individuals with bilateral losses of long duration. Results obtained in normal and pathological ears thus suggest that individual listeners can produce loudness judgements that reveal, although indirectly, the input-output characteristic of the auditory system.

Calculating weighted estimates of peak streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Berenbrock, Charles; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2012-01-01

According to the Federal guidelines for flood-frequency estimation, the uncertainty of peak streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flow at a streamgage, can be reduced by combining the at-site estimate with the regional regression estimate to obtain a weighted estimate of the flow statistic. The procedure assumes the estimates are independent, which is reasonable in most practical situations. The purpose of this publication is to describe and make available a method for calculating a weighted estimate from the uncertainty or variance of the two independent estimates.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a : set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating : discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent : annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to : ann...

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

PubMed

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Investigating organic matter in Fanno Creek, Oregon, Part 1 of 3: estimating annual foliar biomass for a deciduous-dominant urban riparian corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sobieszczyk, Steven; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Goldman, Jami H.

2014-01-01

For this study, we explored the amount, type, and distribution of foliar biomass that is deposited annually as leaf litter to Fanno Creek and its floodplain in Portland, Oregon, USA. Organic matter is a significant contributor to the decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in Fanno Creek each year and leaf litter is amongst the largest sources of organic matter to the stream channel and floodplain. Using a combination of field measurements and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point cloud data, the annual foliar biomass was estimated for 13 stream reaches along the creek. Biomass estimates were divided into two sets: (1) the annual foliage available from the entire floodplain overstory canopy, and (2) the annual foliage overhanging the stream, which likely contributes leaf litter directly to the creek each year. Based on these computations, an estimated 991 (±22%) metric tons (tonnes, t) of foliar biomass is produced annually above the floodplain, with about 136 t (±24%) of that foliage falling directly into Fanno Creek. The distribution of foliar biomass varies by reach, with between 150 and 640 t/km2 produced along the floodplain and between 400 and 1100 t/km2 available over the channel. Biomass estimates vary by reach based primarily on the density of tree cover, with forest-dominant reaches containing more mature deciduous trees with broader tree canopies than either wetland or urban-dominant reaches, thus supplying more organic material to the creek. By quantifying the foliar biomass along Fanno Creek we have provided a reach-scale assessment of terrestrial organic matter loading, thereby providing land managers useful information for planning future restoration efforts.

Investigating organic matter in Fanno Creek, Oregon, Part 1 of 3: Estimating annual foliar biomass for a deciduous-dominant urban riparian corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobieszczyk, Steven; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Goldman, Jami H.

2014-11-01

For this study, we explored the amount, type, and distribution of foliar biomass that is deposited annually as leaf litter to Fanno Creek and its floodplain in Portland, Oregon, USA. Organic matter is a significant contributor to the decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in Fanno Creek each year and leaf litter is amongst the largest sources of organic matter to the stream channel and floodplain. Using a combination of field measurements and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point cloud data, the annual foliar biomass was estimated for 13 stream reaches along the creek. Biomass estimates were divided into two sets: (1) the annual foliage available from the entire floodplain overstory canopy, and (2) the annual foliage overhanging the stream, which likely contributes leaf litter directly to the creek each year. Based on these computations, an estimated 991 (±22%) metric tons (tonnes, t) of foliar biomass is produced annually above the floodplain, with about 136 t (±24%) of that foliage falling directly into Fanno Creek. The distribution of foliar biomass varies by reach, with between 150 and 640 t/km2 produced along the floodplain and between 400 and 1100 t/km2 available over the channel. Biomass estimates vary by reach based primarily on the density of tree cover, with forest-dominant reaches containing more mature deciduous trees with broader tree canopies than either wetland or urban-dominant reaches, thus supplying more organic material to the creek. By quantifying the foliar biomass along Fanno Creek we have provided a reach-scale assessment of terrestrial organic matter loading, thereby providing land managers useful information for planning future restoration efforts.

[Thermal requirements and estimate of the annual number of generations of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on strawberry crop].

PubMed

Nondillo, Aline; Redaelli, Luiza R; Botton, Marcos; Pinent, Silvia M J; Gitz, Rogério

2008-01-01

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is one of the major strawberry pests in southern Brazil. The insect causes russeting and wither in flowers and fruits reducing commercial value. In this work, the thermal requirements of the eggs, larvae and pupae of F. occidentalis were estimated. Thrips development was studied in folioles of strawberry plants at six constant temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, 28 and 31 degrees C) in controlled conditions (70 +/- 10% R.H. and 12:12 L:D). The number of annual generations of F. occidentalis was estimated for six strawberry production regions of Rio Grande do Sul State based on its thermal requirements. Developmental time of each F. occidentalis stages was proportional to the temperature increase. The best development rate was obtained when insects were reared at 25 masculineC and 28 masculineC. The lower threshold and the thermal requirements for the egg to adult stage were 9.9 masculineC and 211.9 degree-days, respectively. Considering the thermal requirements of F. occidentalis, 10.7, 12.6, 13.1, 13.6, 16.5 and 17.9 generations/year were estimated, respectively, for Vacaria, Caxias do Sul, Farroupilha, Pelotas, Porto Alegre and Taquari producing regions located in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil.

Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements

PubMed Central

Oluwole, Akinola S.; Ekpo, Uwem F.; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M.; Olamiju, Francisca O.; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J.; Braide, Eka I.; Mafiana, Chiedu F.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-01-01

Background The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. Methodology STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. Principal Findings We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. Conclusions/Significance The predictive risk maps and estimated

Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements.

PubMed

Oluwole, Akinola S; Ekpo, Uwem F; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M; Olamiju, Francisca O; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J; Braide, Eka I; Mafiana, Chiedu F; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-04-01

The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control

41 CFR 102-84.20 - Where should I obtain the data required to be reported for the Annual Real Property Inventory?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... reported for the Annual Real Property Inventory from the most accurate real property asset management and... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Where should I obtain... Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System (Continued...

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2017-01-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations.The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression

Maximum likelihood estimation for predicting the probability of obtaining variable shortleaf pine regeneration densities

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

2003-01-01

A logistic equation is the basis for a model that predicts the probability of obtaining regeneration at specified densities. The density of regeneration (trees/ha) for which an estimate of probability is desired can be specified by means of independent variables in the model. When estimating parameters, the dependent variable is set to 1 if the regeneration density (...

Estimated annual health care expenditures in individuals with peripheral arterial disease.

PubMed

Scully, Rebecca E; Arnaoutakis, Dean J; DeBord Smith, Ann; Semel, Marcus; Nguyen, Louis L

2018-02-01

The clinical impact of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is well characterized and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Health care-related expenditures among individuals with PAD, particularly for patients, are not well described. Health care-related expenditure data from the 2011 to 2014 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys were analyzed for individuals with a diagnosis of PAD compared with U.S. adults 40 years of age and older. Weighted average annual expenditures were estimated using a multivariable generalized linear model. Subanalyses were also performed for out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures by insurance type. Adjusted for age, gender, and race, individuals with a diagnosis of PAD (weighted n = 640,098) had significantly higher average annual health care-related expenditures compared with the U.S. adult population as a whole (weighted n = 148,387,362). Average annual expenditures per individual for patients with PAD were $11,553 (95% confidence interval [CI], $8137-$14,968) compared with only $4219 (95% CI, $4064-$4375; P < .001) for those without. Expenditures were driven by increased prescription medication expenditures as well as by expenditures for inpatient care, outpatient hospital-based care, and outpatient office-based care. Individuals with PAD had significantly higher OOP prescription medication expenditures ($386 [95% CI, $258-$515] vs $192 [95% CI, $183-$202]; P = .003), which varied by insurance type, ranging from $179 (95% CI, $70-$288) for those with Medicare to $1196 (95% CI, $106-$2244) for those without insurance, although this difference did not reach significance. Individuals with a diagnosis of PAD have higher health care-related expenditures and OOP expenses compared with other US adults. These expenditures compound lost wages, care by family members, and lost opportunity costs, increasing the burden carried by patients with PAD. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery

Randomization of grab-sampling strategies for estimating the annual exposure of U miners to Rn daughters.

PubMed

Borak, T B

1986-04-01

Periodic grab sampling in combination with time-of-occupancy surveys has been the accepted procedure for estimating the annual exposure of underground U miners to Rn daughters. Temporal variations in the concentration of potential alpha energy in the mine generate uncertainties in this process. A system to randomize the selection of locations for measurement is described which can reduce uncertainties and eliminate systematic biases in the data. In general, a sample frequency of 50 measurements per year is sufficient to satisfy the criteria that the annual exposure be determined in working level months to within +/- 50% of the true value with a 95% level of confidence. Suggestions for implementing this randomization scheme are presented.

Obtaining Cue Rate Estimates for Some Mysticete Species using Existing Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

primary focus is to obtain cue rates for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) off the California coast and on the PMRF range. To our knowledge, no... humpback whale cue rates have been calculated for these populations. Once a cue rate is estimated for the populations of humpback whales off the...rates for humpback whales on breeding grounds, in addition to average cue rates for other species of mysticete whales . Cue rates of several other

Toward an annual estimate of methane emissions from Lake Erie

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, J.; Townsend-Small, A.

2017-12-01

Lake Erie is the shallowest, warmest, and most eutrophic of all of the North American Great Lakes. The central basin of Lake Erie exhibits seasonally hypoxic bottom waters, which contributes to biological methane (CH4) production. Leaks from extensive natural gas wells and pipelines in Canadian waters are a potential source of thermogenic CH4 to the lake. The shallow western basin lacks water column hypoxia, but experiences increasingly frequent algal blooms and hypoxic sediments. Our past research, focused on the central basin, indicated that Lake Erie is a positive source of CH4 during late summer (August - September), emitting 1.3 ± 0.6 × 105 kg CH4-C day. Here, we present a seasonal dataset of CH4 fluxes measured throughout a 16-month period starting in the spring of 2015 and ending late summer in 2016 to estimate an annual lake wide CH4 emission. Our results indicate that the western basin experienced the greatest CH4 emissions, and the highest rates of CH4 flux co-occur with the highest rates of nutrient loading and largest algal blooms near the mouth of the Maumee River. Winter CH4 fluxes were minimal and similar throughout the lake, indicating that natural gas wells are a minimal source of CH4 emissions. Emissions were highest in August and tapered off through the fall and winter, rising again in spring. The estimated annual CH4 emission in Lake Erie was 4.41 × 107 kg CH4-C yr-1. We compared this to other CH4 sources in Michigan and Ohio in the USEPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program Database, and found that Lake Erie is second largest emitter of CH4 in Ohio (a landfill in Cincinnati is a larger source), and the largest in Michigan. Recent work has shown that eutrophication in lakes such as Lake Erie may be on the rise due to climate change induced increases in precipitation. If so, these large CH4 emissions may have positive feedback consequences to climate warming. Therefore, more research is needed to indicate whether or not these CH4 emissions are

Reliability of fish size estimates obtained from multibeam imaging sonar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Magowan, Kevin J.; Brown, Lori M.; Fox, Dewayne A.

2013-01-01

Multibeam imaging sonars have considerable potential for use in fisheries surveys because the video-like images are easy to interpret, and they contain information about fish size, shape, and swimming behavior, as well as characteristics of occupied habitats. We examined images obtained using a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) multibeam sonar for Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, striped bass Morone saxatilis, white perch M. americana, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus of known size (20–141 cm) to determine the reliability of length estimates. For ranges up to 11 m, percent measurement error (sonar estimate – total length)/total length × 100 varied by species but was not related to the fish's range or aspect angle (orientation relative to the sonar beam). Least-square mean percent error was significantly different from 0.0 for Atlantic sturgeon (x̄  =  −8.34, SE  =  2.39) and white perch (x̄  = 14.48, SE  =  3.99) but not striped bass (x̄  =  3.71, SE  =  2.58) or channel catfish (x̄  = 3.97, SE  =  5.16). Underestimating lengths of Atlantic sturgeon may be due to difficulty in detecting the snout or the longer dorsal lobe of the heterocercal tail. White perch was the smallest species tested, and it had the largest percent measurement errors (both positive and negative) and the lowest percentage of images classified as good or acceptable. Automated length estimates for the four species using Echoview software varied with position in the view-field. Estimates tended to be low at more extreme azimuthal angles (fish's angle off-axis within the view-field), but mean and maximum estimates were highly correlated with total length. Software estimates also were biased by fish images partially outside the view-field and when acoustic crosstalk occurred (when a fish perpendicular to the sonar and at relatively close range is detected in the side lobes of adjacent beams). These sources of

A fully redundant double difference algorithm for obtaining minimum variance estimates from GPS observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melbourne, William G.

1986-01-01

In double differencing a regression system obtained from concurrent Global Positioning System (GPS) observation sequences, one either undersamples the system to avoid introducing colored measurement statistics, or one fully samples the system incurring the resulting non-diagonal covariance matrix for the differenced measurement errors. A suboptimal estimation result will be obtained in the undersampling case and will also be obtained in the fully sampled case unless the color noise statistics are taken into account. The latter approach requires a least squares weighting matrix derived from inversion of a non-diagonal covariance matrix for the differenced measurement errors instead of inversion of the customary diagonal one associated with white noise processes. Presented is the so-called fully redundant double differencing algorithm for generating a weighted double differenced regression system that yields equivalent estimation results, but features for certain cases a diagonal weighting matrix even though the differenced measurement error statistics are highly colored.

A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Timothy Doak

1978-01-01

Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

Spatio-temporal variability of lake CH4 fluxes and its influence on annual estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natchimuthu, S.; Sundgren, I.; Gålfalk, M.; Klemedtsson, L.; Crill, P. M.; Danielsson, Å.; Bastviken, D.

2014-12-01

Lakes are major sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and it has been shown that lakes contribute significantly to the global CH4 budget. However, the data behind these global estimates are snapshots in time and space only and they typically lack information on spatial and temporal variability of fluxes which can potentially lead to biased estimates. Recent studies have shown that diffusive flux, gas exchange velocity (k), ebullition and concentration of CH4 in the surface water can vary significantly in space within lakes. CH4 fluxes can also change at a broad range of temporal scales in response to seasons, temperature, lake mixing events, short term weather events like pressure variations, shifting winds and diel cycles. We sampled CH4 fluxes and surface water concentrations from three lakes of differing characteristics in southwest Sweden over two annual cycles, approximately every 14 days from April to October 2012 and from April to November 2013. CH4 fluxes were measured using floating chambers distributed in the lakes based on depth categories and dissolved CH4 concentrations were determined by a headspace equilibration method. We observed significant differences in CH4 concentration, diffusion, ebullition and total fluxes between and within the lakes. The fluxes increased exponentially with temperature in all three lakes and water temperature, for example, explained 53-78% of variations in total fluxes in the lakes. Based on our data which relied on improved spatial and temporal information, we demonstrate that measurements which do not take into account of the spatial variability in the lakes could substantially bias the whole lake estimates. For instance, in one of the lakes, measurements from the central parts of the lake represented only 58% of our estimates from all chambers on an average. In addition, we consider how intensive sampling in one season of the year may affect the annual estimates due to the complex interaction of temperature, air

Role of fish distribution on estimates of standing crop in a cooling reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barwick, D. Hugh

1984-01-01

Estimates of fish standing crop from coves in Keowee Reservoir, South Carolina, were obtained in May and August for 3 consecutive years. Estimates were significantly higher in May than in August for most of the major species of fish collected, suggesting that considerable numbers of fish had migrated from the coves by August. This change in fish distribution may have resulted from the operation of a 2,580-megawatt nuclear power plant which altered reservoir stratification. Because fish distribution is sensitive to conditions of reservoir stratification, and because power plants often alter reservoir stratification, annual cove sampling in August may not be sufficient to produce comparable estimates of fish standing crop on which to assess the impact of power plant operations on fish populations. Comparable estimates of fish standing crop can probably be obtained from cooling reservoirs by collecting annual samples at similar water temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen.

Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2014-01-01

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

Two ways of estimating the euro value of the illicit market for cannabis in France.

PubMed

Legleye, Stephane; Ben Lakhdar, Christian; Spilka, Stanislas

2008-09-01

The most recent health surveys in general population are used in order to estimate the annual market size for cannabis in France in 2005. Two methods for arriving at an estimate are proposed: the first based on reported consumption, the other on reported expenditure on cannabis. The annual sales figure for cannabis in France is between 746 and 832 million euro. Men's expenditure accounts for between 80 and 85% of total expenditure and those aged between 15 and 24 years account for the greatest part of the size of the cannabis market, between 57 and 60%, depending upon the method. According to these estimates, consumers' average annual expenditure on cannabis is around euro 202 in France, compared to estimates obtained for New Zealand and Holland (euro 124) and the United States (euro 362).

Estimation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from US Grasslands.

PubMed

Mummey; Smith; Bluhm

2000-02-01

/ Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from temperate grasslands are poorly quantified and may be an important part of the atmospheric N(2)O budget. In this study N(2)O emissions were simulated for 1052 grassland sites in the United States using the NGAS model of Parton and others (1996) coupled with an organic matter decomposition model. N(2)O flux was calculated for each site using soil and land use data obtained from the National Resource Inventory (NRI) database and weather data obtained from NASA. The estimates were regionalized based upon temperature and moisture isotherms. Annual N(2)O emissions for each region were based on the grassland area of each region and the mean estimated annual N(2)O flux from NRI grassland sites in the region. The regional fluxes ranged from 0.18 to 1.02 kg N(2)O N/ha/yr with the mean flux for all regions being 0.28 kg N(2)O N/ha/yr. Even though fluxes from the western regions were relatively low, these regions made the largest contribution to total emissions due to their large grassland area. Total US grassland N(2)O emissions were estimated to be about 67 Gg N(2)O N/yr. Emissions from the Great Plains states, which contain the largest expanse of natural grassland in the United States, were estimated to average 0.24 kg N(2)O N/ha/yr. Using the annual flux estimate for the temperate Great Plains, we estimate that temperate grasslands worldwide may potentially produce 0.27 Tg N(2)O N/yr. Even though our estimate for global temperate grassland N(2)O emissions is less than published estimates for other major temperate and tropical biomes, our results indicate that temperate grasslands are a significant part of both United States and global atmospheric N(2)O budgets. This study demonstrates the utility of models for regional N(2)O flux estimation although additional data from carefully designed field studies is needed to further validate model results.

Use of NMR logging to obtain estimates of hydraulic conductivity in the High Plains aquifer, Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dlubac, Katherine; Knight, Rosemary; Song, Yi-Qiao; Bachman, Nate; Grau, Ben; Cannia, Jim; Williams, John

2013-01-01

Hydraulic conductivity (K) is one of the most important parameters of interest in groundwater applications because it quantifies the ease with which water can flow through an aquifer material. Hydraulic conductivity is typically measured by conducting aquifer tests or wellbore flow (WBF) logging. Of interest in our research is the use of proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging to obtain information about water-filled porosity and pore space geometry, the combination of which can be used to estimate K. In this study, we acquired a suite of advanced geophysical logs, aquifer tests, WBF logs, and sidewall cores at the field site in Lexington, Nebraska, which is underlain by the High Plains aquifer. We first used two empirical equations developed for petroleum applications to predict K from NMR logging data: the Schlumberger Doll Research equation (KSDR) and the Timur-Coates equation (KT-C), with the standard empirical constants determined for consolidated materials. We upscaled our NMR-derived K estimates to the scale of the WBF-logging K(KWBF-logging) estimates for comparison. All the upscaled KT-C estimates were within an order of magnitude of KWBF-logging and all of the upscaled KSDR estimates were within 2 orders of magnitude of KWBF-logging. We optimized the fit between the upscaled NMR-derived K and KWBF-logging estimates to determine a set of site-specific empirical constants for the unconsolidated materials at our field site. We conclude that reliable estimates of K can be obtained from NMR logging data, thus providing an alternate method for obtaining estimates of K at high levels of vertical resolution.

Improving uncertainty estimates: Inter-annual variability in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullinger, D.; Zhang, M.; Hill, N.; Crutchley, T.

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with inter-annual variability used within wind resource assessments for Ireland in order to more accurately represent the uncertainties within wind resource and energy yield assessments. The study was undertaken using a total of 16 ground stations (Met Eireann) and corresponding reanalysis datasets to provide an update to previous work on this topic undertaken nearly 20 years ago. The results of the work demonstrate that the previously reported 5.4% of wind speed inter-annual variability is considered to be appropriate, guidance is given on how to provide a robust assessment of IAV using available sources of data including ground stations, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim.

Sources of metal loads to the Alamosa River and estimation of seasonal and annual metal loads for the Alamosa River basin, Colorado, 1995-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Edelmann, Patrick; Ferguson, Sheryl; Stogner, Robert

2002-01-01

Metal contamination in the upper Alamosa River Basin has occurred for decades from the Summitville Mine site, from other smaller mines, and from natural, metal-enriched acidic drainage in the basin. In 1995, the need to quantify contamination from various source areas in the basin and to quantify the spatial, seasonal, and annual metal loads in the basin was identified. Data collection occurred from 1995 through 1997 at numerous sites to address data gaps. Metal loads were calculated and the percentages of metal load contributions from tributaries to three risk exposure areas were determined. Additionally, a modified time-interval method was used to estimate seasonal and annual metal loads in the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork. Sources of dissolved and total-recoverable aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads were determined for Exposure Areas 3a, 3b, and 3c. Alum Creek is the predominant contributor of aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads to Exposure Area 3a. In general, Wightman Fork was the predominant source of metals to Exposure Area 3b, particularly during the snowmelt and summer-flow periods. During the base-flow period, however, aluminum and iron loads from Exposure Area 3a were the dominant source of these metals to Exposure Area 3b. Jasper and Burnt Creeks generally contributed less than 10 percent of the metal loads to Exposure Area 3b. On a few occasions, however, Jasper and Burnt Creeks contributed a substantial percentage of the loads to the Alamosa River. The metal loads calculated for Exposure Area 3c result from upstream sources; the primary upstream sources are Wightman Fork, Alum Creek, and Iron Creek. Tributaries in Exposure Area 3c did not contribute substantially to the metal load in the Alamosa River. In many instances, the percentage of dissolved and/or total-recoverable metal load contribution from a tributary or the combined percentage of metal load contribution was greater than 100 percent of the metal load at the nearest downstream

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.

1989-01-01

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Annual design-based estimation for the annualized inventories of forest inventory and analysis: sample size determination

Treesearch

Hans T. Schreuder; Jin-Mann S. Lin; John Teply

2000-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis units in the USDA Forest Service have been mandated by Congress to go to an annualized inventory where a certain percentage of plots, say 20 percent, will be measured in each State each year. Although this will result in an annual sample size that will be too small for reliable inference for many areas, it is a sufficiently large...

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation : has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey : report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate : annual exce...

Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2018-01-01

To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual scales (2002-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2015-04-01

We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day-1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

Batch Effect Confounding Leads to Strong Bias in Performance Estimates Obtained by Cross-Validation

PubMed Central

Delorenzi, Mauro

2014-01-01

Background With the large amount of biological data that is currently publicly available, many investigators combine multiple data sets to increase the sample size and potentially also the power of their analyses. However, technical differences (“batch effects”) as well as differences in sample composition between the data sets may significantly affect the ability to draw generalizable conclusions from such studies. Focus The current study focuses on the construction of classifiers, and the use of cross-validation to estimate their performance. In particular, we investigate the impact of batch effects and differences in sample composition between batches on the accuracy of the classification performance estimate obtained via cross-validation. The focus on estimation bias is a main difference compared to previous studies, which have mostly focused on the predictive performance and how it relates to the presence of batch effects. Data We work on simulated data sets. To have realistic intensity distributions, we use real gene expression data as the basis for our simulation. Random samples from this expression matrix are selected and assigned to group 1 (e.g., ‘control’) or group 2 (e.g., ‘treated’). We introduce batch effects and select some features to be differentially expressed between the two groups. We consider several scenarios for our study, most importantly different levels of confounding between groups and batch effects. Methods We focus on well-known classifiers: logistic regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNN) and Random Forests (RF). Feature selection is performed with the Wilcoxon test or the lasso. Parameter tuning and feature selection, as well as the estimation of the prediction performance of each classifier, is performed within a nested cross-validation scheme. The estimated classification performance is then compared to what is obtained when applying the classifier to independent data. PMID:24967636

New Correction Factors Based on Seasonal Variability of Outdoor Temperature for Estimating Annual Radon Concentrations in UK.

PubMed

Daraktchieva, Z

2017-06-01

Indoor radon concentrations generally vary with season. Radon gas enters buildings from beneath due to a small air pressure difference between the inside of a house and outdoors. This underpressure which draws soil gas including radon into the house depends on the difference between the indoor and outdoor temperatures. The variation in a typical house in UK showed that the mean indoor radon concentration reaches a maximum in January and a minimum in July. Sine functions were used to model the indoor radon data and monthly average outdoor temperatures, covering the period between 2005 and 2014. The analysis showed a strong negative correlation between the modelled indoor radon data and outdoor temperature. This correlation was used to calculate new correction factors that could be used for estimation of annual radon concentration in UK homes. The comparison between the results obtained with the new correction factors and the previously published correction factors showed that the new correction factors perform consistently better on the selected data sets. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Assessment of Global Annual Atmospheric Energy Balance from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice); Hinkelman, Laura

2008-01-01

Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface and latent and sensible heat over oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimations. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 Watts per square meter, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 9 Watts per square meter, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated at about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements significantly reduces the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.

Annual agricultural pesticide use for Midwest Stream-Quality Assessment, 2012-13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.; Stone, Wesley W.

2014-01-01

This report provides estimates of annual agricultural use of 190 pesticide compounds for counties and selected watersheds of Midwestern States for 2012 and 2013 compiled for subsequent analysis by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, Midwest Stream-Quality Assessment (MSQA). One of the goals of MSQA is to characterize contaminants at perennial-stream sites throughout the Corn Belt. Evaluating pesticide inputs from agricultural sources will aid in that characterization. Crop acres for selected Midwestern crops were obtained from the Cropland Data Layer of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and used in conjunction with GfK Kynetec, Inc. proprietary Crop Reporting District-level pesticide-use data to estimate pesticide use for counties and watersheds. Estimated pesticide use (EPest) values were calculated by using both the “EPest-high” and “EPest-low” methods, the distinction being that there are more counties with estimated pesticide use for EPest-high compared to EPest-low, owing to differing assumptions about missing survey data. County-level and watershed-level estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use are provided as downloadable, tab-delimited files for both EPest-high and Epest-low. Summary graphs of MSQA watershed-level pesticide use for selected crops are also provided.

Estimation of annual suspended-sediment fluxes, 1931-95, and evaluation of geomorphic changes, 1950-2010, in the Arkansas River near Tulsa, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Buck, Stephanie D.; Strong, Scott A.

2011-01-01

An understanding of fluvial sediment transport and changing channel morphology can assist planners in making responsible decisions with future riverine development or restoration projects. Sediment rating curves can serve as simple models and can provide predictive tools to estimate annual sediment fluxes. Sediment flux models can aid in the design of river projects by providing insight to past and potential future sediment fluxes. Historical U.S. Geological Survey suspended-sediment and discharge data were evaluated to estimate annual suspended-sediment fluxes for two stations on the Arkansas River located downstream from Keystone Dam in Tulsa County. Annual suspended-sediment fluxes were estimated from 1931-95 for the Arkansas River at Tulsa streamflow-gaging station (07164500) and from 1973-82 for the Arkansas River near Haskell streamflow-gaging station (07165570). The annual flow-weighted suspended-sediment concentration decreased from 1,970 milligrams per liter to 350 milligrams per liter after the completion of Keystone Dam at the Tulsa station. The streambed elevation at the Arkansas River at Tulsa station has changed less than 1 foot from 1970 to 2005, but the thalweg has shifted from a location near the right bank to a position near the left bank. There was little change in the position of most of the banks of the Arkansas River channel from 1950 to 2009. The most substantial change evident from visual inspection of aerial photographs was an apparent decrease in sediment storage in the form of mid-channel and meander bars. The Arkansas River channel between Keystone Dam and the Tulsa-Wagoner County line showed a narrowing and lengthening (increase in sinuosity) over the transition period 1950-77 followed by a steady widening and shortening of the river channel (decrease in sinuosity) during the post-dam (Keystone) periods 1977-85, 1985-2003, and 2003-10.

Exploring the correlation between annual precipitation and potential evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Buchberger, S. G.

2017-12-01

The interdependence between precipitation and potential evaporation is closely related to the classic Budyko framework. In this study, a systematic investigation of the correlation between precipitation and potential evaporation at the annual time step is conducted at both point scale and watershed scale. The point scale precipitation and potential evaporation data over the period of 1984-2015 are collected from 259 weather stations across the United States. The watershed scale precipitation data of 203 watersheds across the United States are obtained from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) dataset from 1983 to 2002; and potential evaporation data of these 203 watersheds in the same period are obtained from a remote-sensing algorithm. The results show that majority of the weather stations (77%) and watersheds (79%) exhibit a statistically significant negative correlation between annual precipitation and annual potential evaporation. The aggregated data cloud of precipitation versus potential evaporation follows a curve based on the combination of the Budyko-type equation and Bouchet's complementary relationship. Our result suggests that annual precipitation and potential evaporation are not independent when both Budyko's hypothesis and Bouchet's hypothesis are valid. Furthermore, we find that the wet surface evaporation, which is controlled primarily by short wave radiation as defined in Bouchet's hypothesis, exhibits less dependence on precipitation than the potential evaporation. As a result, we suggest that wet surface evaporation is a better representation of energy supply than potential evaporation in the Budyko framework.

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013 : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

Traditionally, the Iowa DOT has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional regression equations (RREs) from a USGS report : (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge : (AEPD) for small...

Satellite-derived methane hotspot emission estimates using a fast data-driven method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchwitz, Michael; Schneising, Oliver; Reuter, Maximilian; Heymann, Jens; Krautwurst, Sven; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Burrows, John P.; Boesch, Hartmut; Parker, Robert J.; Somkuti, Peter; Detmers, Rob G.; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Aben, Ilse; Butz, André; Frankenberg, Christian; Turner, Alexander J.

2017-05-01

Methane is an important atmospheric greenhouse gas and an adequate understanding of its emission sources is needed for climate change assessments, predictions, and the development and verification of emission mitigation strategies. Satellite retrievals of near-surface-sensitive column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane, i.e. XCH4, can be used to quantify methane emissions. Maps of time-averaged satellite-derived XCH4 show regionally elevated methane over several methane source regions. In order to obtain methane emissions of these source regions we use a simple and fast data-driven method to estimate annual methane emissions and corresponding 1σ uncertainties directly from maps of annually averaged satellite XCH4. From theoretical considerations we expect that our method tends to underestimate emissions. When applying our method to high-resolution atmospheric methane simulations, we typically find agreement within the uncertainty range of our method (often 100 %) but also find that our method tends to underestimate emissions by typically about 40 %. To what extent these findings are model dependent needs to be assessed. We apply our method to an ensemble of satellite XCH4 data products consisting of two products from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and two products from TANSO-FTS/GOSAT covering the time period 2003-2014. We obtain annual emissions of four source areas: Four Corners in the south-western USA, the southern part of Central Valley, California, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. We find that our estimated emissions are in good agreement with independently derived estimates for Four Corners and Azerbaijan. For the Central Valley and Turkmenistan our estimated annual emissions are higher compared to the EDGAR v4.2 anthropogenic emission inventory. For Turkmenistan we find on average about 50 % higher emissions with our annual emission uncertainty estimates overlapping with the EDGAR emissions. For the region around Bakersfield in the Central Valley we

Estimating Agricultural Water Use using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Evapotranspiration Estimation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, B. T.

2015-12-01

Due to the predominantly arid climate in Arizona, access to adequate water supply is vital to the economic development and livelihood of the State. Water supply has become increasingly important during periods of prolonged drought, which has strained reservoir water levels in the Desert Southwest over past years. Arizona's water use is dominated by agriculture, consuming about seventy-five percent of the total annual water demand. Tracking current agricultural water use is important for managers and policy makers so that current water demand can be assessed and current information can be used to forecast future demands. However, many croplands in Arizona are irrigated outside of areas where water use reporting is mandatory. To estimate irrigation withdrawals on these lands, we use a combination of field verification, evapotranspiration (ET) estimation, and irrigation system qualification. ET is typically estimated in Arizona using the Modified Blaney-Criddle method which uses meteorological data to estimate annual crop water requirements. The Modified Blaney-Criddle method assumes crops are irrigated to their full potential over the entire growing season, which may or may not be realistic. We now use the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) ET data in a remote-sensing and energy-balance framework to estimate cropland ET. SSEBop data are of sufficient resolution (30m by 30m) for estimation of field-scale cropland water use. We evaluate our SSEBop-based estimates using ground-truth information and irrigation system qualification obtained in the field. Our approach gives the end user an estimate of crop consumptive use as well as inefficiencies in irrigation system performance—both of which are needed by water managers for tracking irrigated water use in Arizona.

Estimating generalized skew of the log-Pearson Type III distribution for annual peak floods in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberg, Kevin A.; Mades, Dean M.

1987-01-01

Four techniques for estimating generalized skew in Illinois were evaluated: (1) a generalized skew map of the US; (2) an isoline map; (3) a prediction equation; and (4) a regional-mean skew. Peak-flow records at 730 gaging stations having 10 or more annual peaks were selected for computing station skews. Station skew values ranged from -3.55 to 2.95, with a mean of -0.11. Frequency curves computed for 30 gaging stations in Illinois using the variations of the regional-mean skew technique are similar to frequency curves computed using a skew map developed by the US Water Resources Council (WRC). Estimates of the 50-, 100-, and 500-yr floods computed for 29 of these gaging stations using the regional-mean skew techniques are within the 50% confidence limits of frequency curves computed using the WRC skew map. Although the three variations of the regional-mean skew technique were slightly more accurate than the WRC map, there is no appreciable difference between flood estimates computed using the variations of the regional-mean technique and flood estimates computed using the WRC skew map. (Peters-PTT)

Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

PubMed Central

Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis; Huse, Geir

2018-01-01

The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and NEA mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The data was obtained from scientific surveys in the main feeding area (Norwegian Sea) in the period 2005–2010. By incorporating novel information about ambient temperature, seasonal growth and changes in the diet from stomach content analyses, annual consumption of the different zooplankton groups by pelagic fish is estimated. The present study estimates higher consumption estimates than previous studies for the three species and suggests that fish might have a greater impact on the zooplankton community as foragers. This way, NEA mackerel, showing the highest daily consumption rates, and NSS herring, annually consume around 10 times their total biomass, whereas blue whiting consume about 6 times their biomass in zooplankton. The three species were estimated to consume an average of 135 million (M) tonnes of zooplankton each year, consisting of 53–85 M tonnes of copepods, 20–32 M tonnes of krill, 8–42 M tonnes of appendicularians and 0.2–1.2 M tonnes of fish, depending on the year. For NSS herring and NEA mackerel the main prey groups are calanoids and appendicularians, showing a peak in consumption during June and June–July, respectively, and suggesting high potential for inter-specific feeding competition between these species. In contrast, blue whiting maintain a low consumption rate from April to September, consuming mainly larger euphausiids. Our results suggest that the three species can coexist regardless of their high abundance, zooplankton consumption rates and overlapping diet. Accordingly, the species might have niche segregation, as they are species specific, showing annual and inter-annual

New methodology for modeling annual-aircraft emissions at airports

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodmansey, B.G.; Patterson, J.G.

An as-accurate-as-possible estimation of total-aircraft emissions are an essential component of any environmental-impact assessment done for proposed expansions at major airports. To determine the amount of emissions generated by aircraft using present models it is necessary to know the emission characteristics of all engines that are on all planes using the airport. However, the published data base does not cover all engine types and, therefore, a new methodology is needed to assist in estimating annual emissions from aircraft at airports. Linear regression equations relating quantity of emissions to aircraft weight using a known-fleet mix are developed in this paper. Total-annualmore » emissions for CO, NO[sub x], NMHC, SO[sub x], CO[sub 2], and N[sub 2]O are tabulated for Toronto's international airport for 1990. The regression equations are statistically significant for all emissions except for NMHC from large jets and NO[sub x] and NMHC for piston-engine aircraft. This regression model is a relatively simple, fast, and inexpensive method of obtaining an annual-emission inventory for an airport.« less

Accuracy of patient-specific organ dose estimates obtained using an automated image segmentation algorithm.

PubMed

Schmidt, Taly Gilat; Wang, Adam S; Coradi, Thomas; Haas, Benjamin; Star-Lack, Josh

2016-10-01

The overall goal of this work is to develop a rapid, accurate, and automated software tool to estimate patient-specific organ doses from computed tomography (CT) scans using simulations to generate dose maps combined with automated segmentation algorithms. This work quantified the accuracy of organ dose estimates obtained by an automated segmentation algorithm. We hypothesized that the autosegmentation algorithm is sufficiently accurate to provide organ dose estimates, since small errors delineating organ boundaries will have minimal effect when computing mean organ dose. A leave-one-out validation study of the automated algorithm was performed with 20 head-neck CT scans expertly segmented into nine regions. Mean organ doses of the automatically and expertly segmented regions were computed from Monte Carlo-generated dose maps and compared. The automated segmentation algorithm estimated the mean organ dose to be within 10% of the expert segmentation for regions other than the spinal canal, with the median error for each organ region below 2%. In the spinal canal region, the median error was [Formula: see text], with a maximum absolute error of 28% for the single-atlas approach and 11% for the multiatlas approach. The results demonstrate that the automated segmentation algorithm can provide accurate organ dose estimates despite some segmentation errors.

Accuracy of patient-specific organ dose estimates obtained using an automated image segmentation algorithm

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Taly Gilat; Wang, Adam S.; Coradi, Thomas; Haas, Benjamin; Star-Lack, Josh

2016-01-01

Abstract. The overall goal of this work is to develop a rapid, accurate, and automated software tool to estimate patient-specific organ doses from computed tomography (CT) scans using simulations to generate dose maps combined with automated segmentation algorithms. This work quantified the accuracy of organ dose estimates obtained by an automated segmentation algorithm. We hypothesized that the autosegmentation algorithm is sufficiently accurate to provide organ dose estimates, since small errors delineating organ boundaries will have minimal effect when computing mean organ dose. A leave-one-out validation study of the automated algorithm was performed with 20 head-neck CT scans expertly segmented into nine regions. Mean organ doses of the automatically and expertly segmented regions were computed from Monte Carlo-generated dose maps and compared. The automated segmentation algorithm estimated the mean organ dose to be within 10% of the expert segmentation for regions other than the spinal canal, with the median error for each organ region below 2%. In the spinal canal region, the median error was −7%, with a maximum absolute error of 28% for the single-atlas approach and 11% for the multiatlas approach. The results demonstrate that the automated segmentation algorithm can provide accurate organ dose estimates despite some segmentation errors. PMID:27921070

Use of claims data to estimate annual cervical cancer screening percentages in Portland metropolitan area, Oregon.

PubMed

Abdullah, Nasreen; Laing, Robert S; Hariri, Susan; Young, Collette M; Schafer, Sean

2016-04-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine should reduce cervical dysplasia before cervical cancer. However, dysplasia diagnosis is screening-dependent. Accurate screening estimates are needed. To estimate the percentage of women in a geographic population that has had cervical cancer screening. We analyzed claims data for (Papanicolau) Pap tests from 2008-2012 to estimate the percentage of insured women aged 18-39 years screened. We estimated screening in uninsured women by dividing the percentage of insured Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey respondents reporting previous-year testing by the percentage of uninsured respondents reporting previous-year testing, and multiplying this ratio by claims-based estimates of insured women with previous-year screening. We calculated a simple weighted average of the two estimates to estimate overall screening percentage. We estimated credible intervals using Monte-Carlo simulations. During 2008-2012, an annual average of 29.6% of women aged 18-39 years were screened. Screening increased from 2008 to 2009 in all age groups. During 2009-2012, the screening percentages decreased for all groups, but declined most in women aged 18-20 years, from 21.5% to 5.4%. Within age groups, compared to 2009, credible intervals did not overlap during 2011 (except age group 21-29 years) and 2012, and credible intervals in the 18-20 year group did not overlap with older groups in any year. This introduces a novel method to estimate population-level cervical cancer screening. Overall, percentage of women screened in Portland, Oregon fell following changes in screening recommendations released in 2009 and later modified in 2012. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual losses from disease in Pacific Northwest forests.

Treesearch

T.W Childs; K.R. Shea

1967-01-01

This report presents current estimates of annual disease impact on forest productivity of Oregon and Washington. It is concerned exclusively with losses of timber volumes and of potential timber growth in today's forests.Annual loss from disease in this region is estimated at 3,133 million board feet or 403 million cubic feet. This is about 13 percent...

Determining storm sampling requirements for improving precision of annual load estimates of nutrients from a small forested watershed.

PubMed

Ide, Jun'ichiro; Chiwa, Masaaki; Higashi, Naoko; Maruno, Ryoko; Mori, Yasushi; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2012-08-01

This study sought to determine the lowest number of storm events required for adequate estimation of annual nutrient loads from a forested watershed using the regression equation between cumulative load (∑L) and cumulative stream discharge (∑Q). Hydrological surveys were conducted for 4 years, and stream water was sampled sequentially at 15-60-min intervals during 24 h in 20 events, as well as weekly in a small forested watershed. The bootstrap sampling technique was used to determine the regression (∑L-∑Q) equations of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and phosphorus (DP), particulate nitrogen (PN) and phosphorus (PP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and suspended solid (SS) for each dataset of ∑L and ∑Q. For dissolved nutrients (DN, DP, DIN), the coefficient of variance (CV) in 100 replicates of 4-year average annual load estimates was below 20% with datasets composed of five storm events. For particulate nutrients (PN, PP, SS), the CV exceeded 20%, even with datasets composed of more than ten storm events. The differences in the number of storm events required for precise load estimates between dissolved and particulate nutrients were attributed to the goodness of fit of the ∑L-∑Q equations. Bootstrap simulation based on flow-stratified sampling resulted in fewer storm events than the simulation based on random sampling and showed that only three storm events were required to give a CV below 20% for dissolved nutrients. These results indicate that a sampling design considering discharge levels reduces the frequency of laborious chemical analyses of water samples required throughout the year.

Annual public health and economic benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination: a European estimate.

PubMed

Preaud, Emmanuelle; Durand, Laure; Macabeo, Bérengère; Farkas, Norbert; Sloesen, Brigitte; Palache, Abraham; Shupo, Francis; Samson, Sandrine I

2014-08-07

Vaccination is currently the most effective means of preventing influenza infection. Yet evidence of vaccine performance, and the impact and value of seasonal influenza vaccination across risk groups and between seasons, continue to generate much discussion. Moreover, vaccination coverage is below recommended levels. A model was generated to assess the annual public health benefits and economic importance of influenza vaccination in 5 WHO recommended vaccination target groups (children 6 - 23 months of age; persons with underlying chronic health conditions; pregnant women; health care workers; and, the elderly, 65 years of age) in 27 countries of the European Union. Model estimations were based on standard calculation methods, conservative assumptions, age-based and country-specific data. Out of approximately 180 million Europeans for whom influenza vaccination is recommended, only about 80 million persons are vaccinated. Seasonal influenza vaccination currently prevents an annual average of between 1.6 million and 2.1 million cases of influenza, 45,300 to 65,600 hospitalizations, and 25,200 to 37,200 deaths. To reach the 75% vaccination coverage target set by the EU Council Recommendation in 2009, an additional 57.4 million person would need to be vaccinated in the elderly and other risk groups. By achieving the 75% target rate set in EU-27 countries, average annual influenza- related events averted would increase from current levels to an additional +1.6 to +1.7 million cases, +23,800 to +31,400 hospitalization, +9,800 to +14,300 deaths, +678,500 to +767,800 physician visits, and +883,800 to +1,015,100 lost days of work yearly. Influenza-related costs averted because of vaccination would increase by an additional + €190 to + €226 million yearly, in vaccination target groups. Full implementation of current influenza vaccination recommendations of 75% vaccination coverage rate (VCR) in Europe by the 2014-2015 influenza season could immediately reduce an

The magnitude of variability produced by methods used to estimate annual stormwater contaminant loads for highly urbanised catchments.

PubMed

Beck, H J; Birch, G F

2013-06-01

Stormwater contaminant loading estimates using event mean concentration (EMC), rainfall/runoff relationship calculations and computer modelling (Model of Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Conceptualisation--MUSIC) demonstrated high variability in common methods of water quality assessment. Predictions of metal, nutrient and total suspended solid loadings for three highly urbanised catchments in Sydney estuary, Australia, varied greatly within and amongst methods tested. EMC and rainfall/runoff relationship calculations produced similar estimates (within 1 SD) in a statistically significant number of trials; however, considerable variability within estimates (∼50 and ∼25 % relative standard deviation, respectively) questions the reliability of these methods. Likewise, upper and lower default inputs in a commonly used loading model (MUSIC) produced an extensive range of loading estimates (3.8-8.3 times above and 2.6-4.1 times below typical default inputs, respectively). Default and calibrated MUSIC simulations produced loading estimates that agreed with EMC and rainfall/runoff calculations in some trials (4-10 from 18); however, they were not frequent enough to statistically infer that these methods produced the same results. Great variance within and amongst mean annual loads estimated by common methods of water quality assessment has important ramifications for water quality managers requiring accurate estimates of the quantities and nature of contaminants requiring treatment.

Alternative sampling designs and estimators for annual surveys

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen

2000-01-01

Annual forest inventory systems in the United States have generally converged on sampling designs that: (1) measure equal proportions of the total number of plots each year; and (2) call for the plots to be systematically dispersed. However, there will inevitably be a need to deviate from the basic design to respond to special requests, natural disasters, and budgetary...

Precise attitude rate estimation using star images obtained by mission telescope for satellite missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inamori, Takaya; Hosonuma, Takayuki; Ikari, Satoshi; Saisutjarit, Phongsatorn; Sako, Nobutada; Nakasuka, Shinichi

2015-02-01

Recently, small satellites have been employed in various satellite missions such as astronomical observation and remote sensing. During these missions, the attitudes of small satellites should be stabilized to a higher accuracy to obtain accurate science data and images. To achieve precise attitude stabilization, these small satellites should estimate their attitude rate under the strict constraints of mass, space, and cost. This research presents a new method for small satellites to precisely estimate angular rate using star blurred images by employing a mission telescope to achieve precise attitude stabilization. In this method, the angular velocity is estimated by assessing the quality of a star image, based on how blurred it appears to be. Because the proposed method utilizes existing mission devices, a satellite does not require additional precise rate sensors, which makes it easier to achieve precise stabilization given the strict constraints possessed by small satellites. The research studied the relationship between estimation accuracy and parameters used to achieve an attitude rate estimation, which has a precision greater than 1 × 10-6 rad/s. The method can be applied to all attitude sensors, which use optics systems such as sun sensors and star trackers (STTs). Finally, the method is applied to the nano astrometry satellite Nano-JASMINE, and we investigate the problems that are expected to arise with real small satellites by performing numerical simulations.

Effect of windowing on lithosphere elastic thickness estimates obtained via the coherence method: Results from northern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojeda, GermáN. Y.; Whitman, Dean

2002-11-01

The effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere is a parameter that describes the flexural strength of a plate. A method routinely used to quantify this parameter is to calculate the coherence between the two-dimensional gravity and topography spectra. Prior to spectra calculation, data grids must be "windowed" in order to avoid edge effects. We investigated the sensitivity of Te estimates obtained via the coherence method to mirroring, Hanning and multitaper windowing techniques on synthetic data as well as on data from northern South America. These analyses suggest that the choice of windowing technique plays an important role in Te estimates and may result in discrepancies of several kilometers depending on the selected windowing method. Te results from mirrored grids tend to be greater than those from Hanning smoothed or multitapered grids. Results obtained from mirrored grids are likely to be over-estimates. This effect may be due to artificial long wavelengths introduced into the data at the time of mirroring. Coherence estimates obtained from three subareas in northern South America indicate that the average effective elastic thickness is in the range of 29-30 km, according to Hanning and multitaper windowed data. Lateral variations across the study area could not be unequivocally determined from this study. We suggest that the resolution of the coherence method does not permit evaluation of small (i.e., ˜5 km), local Te variations. However, the efficiency and robustness of the coherence method in rendering continent-scale estimates of elastic thickness has been confirmed.

Stochastic evaluation of annual micropollutant loads and their uncertainties in separate storm sewers.

PubMed

Hannouche, Ali; Chebbo, Ghassan; Joannis, Claude; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Moilleron, Régis; Barraud, Sylvie; Ruban, Véronique

2017-12-01

This article describes a stochastic method to calculate the annual pollutant loads and its application over several years at the outlet of three catchments drained by separate storm sewers. A stochastic methodology using Monte Carlo simulations is proposed for assessing annual pollutant load, as well as the associated uncertainties, from a few event sampling campaigns and/or continuous turbidity measurements (representative of the total suspended solids concentration (TSS)). Indeed, in the latter case, the proposed method takes into account the correlation between pollutants and TSS. The developed method was applied to data acquired within the French research project "INOGEV" (innovations for a sustainable management of urban water) at the outlet of three urban catchments drained by separate storm sewers. Ten or so event sampling campaigns for a large range of pollutants (46 pollutants and 2 conventional water quality parameters: TSS and total organic carbon (TOC)) are combined with hundreds of rainfall events for which, at least one among three continuously monitored parameters (rainfall intensity, flow rate, and turbidity) is available. Results obtained for the three catchments show that the annual pollutant loads can be estimated with uncertainties ranging from 10 to 60%, and the added value of turbidity monitoring for lowering the uncertainty is demonstrated. A low inter-annual and inter-site variability of pollutant loads, for many of studied pollutants, is observed with respect to the estimated uncertainties, and can be explained mainly by annual precipitation.

Annual Rainfall Maxima: Theoretical Estimation of the GEV Shape Parameter k Using Multifractal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veneziano, D.; Langousis, A.; Lepore, C.

2009-12-01

The annual maximum of the average rainfall intensity in a period of duration d, Iyear(d), is typically assumed to have generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The shape parameter k of that distribution is especially difficult to estimate from either at-site or regional data, making it important to constraint k using theoretical arguments. In the context of multifractal representations of rainfall, we observe that standard theoretical estimates of k from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories do not apply, while estimates from large deviation (LD) theory hold only for very small d. We then propose a new theoretical estimator based on fitting GEV models to the numerically calculated distribution of Iyear(d). A standard result from EV and EE theories is that k depends on the tail behavior of the average rainfall in d, I(d). This result holds if Iyear(d) is the maximum of a sufficiently large number n of variables, all distributed like I(d); therefore its applicability hinges on whether n = 1yr/d is large enough and the tail of I(d) is sufficiently well known. One typically assumes that at least for small d the former condition is met, but poor knowledge of the upper tail of I(d) remains an obstacle for all d. In fact, in the case of multifractal rainfall, also the first condition is not met because, irrespective of d, 1yr/d is too small (Veneziano et al., 2009, WRR, in press). Applying large deviation (LD) theory to this multifractal case, we find that, as d → 0, Iyear(d) approaches a GEV distribution whose shape parameter kLD depends on a region of the distribution of I(d) well below the upper tail, is always positive (in the EV2 range), is much larger than the value predicted by EV and EE theories, and can be readily found from the scaling properties of I(d). The scaling properties of rainfall can be inferred also from short records, but the limitation remains that the result holds under d → 0 not for finite d. Therefore, for different reasons

Commercial Crew Cost Estimating - A Look at Estimating Processes, Challenges and Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battle, Rick; Cole, Lance

2015-01-01

To support annual PPBE budgets and NASA HQ requests for cost information for commercial crew transportation to the International Space Station (ISS), the NASA ISS ACES team developed system development and per flight cost estimates for the potential providers for each annual PPBE submit from 2009-2014. This paper describes the cost estimating processes used, challenges and lessons learned to develop estimates for this key NASA project that diverted from the traditional procurement approach and used a new way of doing business

A space-time look at two-phase estimation for improved annual inventory estimates

Treesearch

Jay Breidt; Jean Opsomer; Xiyue Liao; Gretchen Moisen

2015-01-01

Over the past several years, three sets of new temporal remote sensing data have become available improving FIA’s ability to detect, characterize and forecast land cover changes. First, historic Landsat data has been processed for the conterminous US to provide disturbance history, agents of change, and fitted spectral trajectories annually over the last 30+ years at...

Annual Stock Assessment - CWT [Coded Wire Tag program] (USFWS), Annual Report 2007.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastor, Stephen M.

2009-07-21

In 1989 the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) began funding the evaluation of production groups of juvenile anadromous fish not being coded-wire tagged for other programs. These groups were the 'Missing Production Groups'. Production fish released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) without representative coded-wire tags during the 1980s are indicated as blank spaces on the survival graphs in this report. This program is now referred to as 'Annual Stock Assessment - CWT'. The objectives of the 'Annual Stock Assessment' program are to: (1) estimate the total survival of each production group, (2) estimate the contribution of each productionmore » group to fisheries, and (3) prepare an annual report for USFWS hatcheries in the Columbia River basin. Coded-wire tag recovery information will be used to evaluate the relative success of individual brood stocks. This information can also be used by salmon harvest managers to develop plans to allow the harvest of excess hatchery fish while protecting threatened, endangered, or other stocks of concern. All fish release information, including marked/unmarked ratios, is reported to the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC). Fish recovered in the various fisheries or at the hatcheries are sampled to recover coded-wire tags. This recovery information is also reported to PSMFC. This report has been prepared annually starting with the report labeled 'Annual Report 1994'. Although the current report has the title 'Annual Report 2007', it was written in fall of 2008 using data available from RMIS that same year, and submitted as final in January 2009. The main objective of the report is to evaluate survival of groups which have been tagged under this ongoing project.« less

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation. Copyright ?? 2005 The Author(s).

UAV Annual Report, FY 1996.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-11-06

Tracor; Vector; Cl Fiberite; Hexcel; Honeywell Cannon; Tamam; IntegriNautics; Lockheed Martin; Carlyle Gp; Northrop Grumman (SAR); Hbroux; Hughes...Aerospace; Group; Teftec Inc. Northrop Grumman ; Williams Internations Developmental estimates Developmental estimates 09 31 UAV ANNUAL REPORT UAV Tier 11...Rosemount Aerospace; Northrop Grumman ; Williams International Developmental estimates 31 UAVANNUAL REPORT A U.S. Customs Service P-3 AEW and Predator

50 CFR 660.508 - Annual specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., quota, Annual Catch Limit (ACL) (defined at § 600.310(f)(2)) or Annual Catch Target (ACT) (defined at... guideline, quota, ACL, or ACT, including any apportionment between the directed fishery and set-aside for..., quota, ACL or ACT will contain the following information if available or applicable: (1) The estimated...

50 CFR 660.508 - Annual specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., quota, Annual Catch Limit (ACL) (defined at § 600.310(f)(2)) or Annual Catch Target (ACT) (defined at... guideline, quota, ACL, or ACT, including any apportionment between the directed fishery and set-aside for..., quota, ACL or ACT will contain the following information if available or applicable: (1) The estimated...

50 CFR 660.508 - Annual specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., quota, Annual Catch Limit (ACL) (defined at § 600.310(f)(2)) or Annual Catch Target (ACT) (defined at... guideline, quota, ACL, or ACT, including any apportionment between the directed fishery and set-aside for..., quota, ACL or ACT will contain the following information if available or applicable: (1) The estimated...

Sediment data sources and estimated annual suspended-sediment loads of rivers and streams in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, J.G.; DeFeyter, K.L.

1986-01-01

Sources of sediment data collected by several government agencies through water year 1984 are summarized for Colorado. The U.S. Geological Survey has collected suspended-sediment data at 243 sites; these data are stored in the U.S. Geological Survey 's water data storage and retrieval system. The U.S. Forest Service has collected suspended-sediment and bedload data at an additional 225 sites, and most of these data are stored in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 's water-quality-control information system. Additional unpublished sediment data are in the possession of the collecting entities. Annual suspended-sediment loads were computed for 133 U.S. Geological Survey sediment-data-collection sites using the daily mean water-discharge/sediment-transport-curve method. Sediment-transport curves were derived for each site by one of three techniques: (1) Least-squares linear regression of all pairs of suspended-sediment and corresponding water-discharge data, (2) least-squares linear regression of data sets subdivided on the basis of hydrograph season; and (3) graphical fit to a logarithm-logarithm plot of data. The curve-fitting technique used for each site depended on site-specific characteristics. Sediment-data sources and estimates of annual loads of suspended, bed, and total sediment from several other reports also are summarized. (USGS)

Accuracy of patient specific organ-dose estimates obtained using an automated image segmentation algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilat-Schmidt, Taly; Wang, Adam; Coradi, Thomas; Haas, Benjamin; Star-Lack, Josh

2016-03-01

The overall goal of this work is to develop a rapid, accurate and fully automated software tool to estimate patient-specific organ doses from computed tomography (CT) scans using a deterministic Boltzmann Transport Equation solver and automated CT segmentation algorithms. This work quantified the accuracy of organ dose estimates obtained by an automated segmentation algorithm. The investigated algorithm uses a combination of feature-based and atlas-based methods. A multiatlas approach was also investigated. We hypothesize that the auto-segmentation algorithm is sufficiently accurate to provide organ dose estimates since random errors at the organ boundaries will average out when computing the total organ dose. To test this hypothesis, twenty head-neck CT scans were expertly segmented into nine regions. A leave-one-out validation study was performed, where every case was automatically segmented with each of the remaining cases used as the expert atlas, resulting in nineteen automated segmentations for each of the twenty datasets. The segmented regions were applied to gold-standard Monte Carlo dose maps to estimate mean and peak organ doses. The results demonstrated that the fully automated segmentation algorithm estimated the mean organ dose to within 10% of the expert segmentation for regions other than the spinal canal, with median error for each organ region below 2%. In the spinal canal region, the median error was 7% across all data sets and atlases, with a maximum error of 20%. The error in peak organ dose was below 10% for all regions, with a median error below 4% for all organ regions. The multiple-case atlas reduced the variation in the dose estimates and additional improvements may be possible with more robust multi-atlas approaches. Overall, the results support potential feasibility of an automated segmentation algorithm to provide accurate organ dose estimates.

Stage-discharge relations and annual nitrogen and phosphorus load estimates for stream sites in the Elk River Basin, 2006–2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; Williams, Shannon D.; Wolfe, William J.

2016-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), measured continuous discharge at 4 water-quality monitoring sites and developed stage-discharge ratings for 10 additional water-quality monitoring sites in the Elk River Basin during 2006 through 2008. The discharge data were collected to support stream load assessments by TDEC. Annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads were estimated for the four sites where continuous daily discharge records were collected. Reported loads for the period 2006 through 2008 are not representative of long-term mean annual conditions at the sites in this study, however, because of severe drought conditions in the Elk River Basin during this period.

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010

PubMed Central

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-01-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error. PMID:23956482

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010.

PubMed

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-06-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error.

Annual estimates of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET for the contiguous U.S. using empirical regression equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reitz, Meredith; Sanford, Ward E.; Senay, Gabriel; Cazenas, J.

2017-01-01

This study presents new data-driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick-flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000-2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick-flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick-flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first-order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.

The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: the case of Catalonia.

PubMed

Casas, M Carmen; Rodríguez, Raül; Nieto, Raquel; Redaño, Angel

2008-12-01

A brief overview of the different techniques used to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is presented. As a particular case, the 1-day PMP over Catalonia has been calculated and mapped with a high spatial resolution. For this purpose, the annual maximum daily rainfall series from 145 pluviometric stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spanish Weather Service) in Catalonia have been analyzed. In order to obtain values of PMP, an enveloping frequency factor curve based on the actual rainfall data of stations in the region has been developed. This enveloping curve has been used to estimate 1-day PMP values of all the 145 stations. Applying the Cressman method, the spatial analysis of these values has been achieved. Monthly precipitation climatological data, obtained from the application of Geographic Information Systems techniques, have been used as the initial field for the analysis. The 1-day PMP at 1 km(2) spatial resolution over Catalonia has been objectively determined, varying from 200 to 550 mm. Structures with wavelength longer than approximately 35 km can be identified and, despite their general concordance, the obtained 1-day PMP spatial distribution shows remarkable differences compared to the annual mean precipitation arrangement over Catalonia.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, Addendum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1975-01-01

New results and insights concerning a previously published iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions were discussed. It was shown that the procedure converges locally to the consistent maximum likelihood estimate as long as a specified parameter is bounded between two limits. Bound values were given to yield optimal local convergence.

Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

PubMed Central

Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and

Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection During Overseas Deployment.

PubMed

Mancuso, James D; Geurts, Mia

2015-12-01

Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low-0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-2.3%)-and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[Rapid prediction of annual ring density of Paulownia elongate standing tress using near infrared spectroscopy].

PubMed

Jiang, Ze-Hui; Wang, Yu-Rong; Fei, Ben-Hua; Fu, Feng; Hse, Chung-Yun

2007-06-01

Rapid prediction of annual ring density of Paulownia elongate standing trees using near infrared spectroscopy was studied. It was non-destructive to collect the samples for trees, that is, the wood cores 5 mm in diameter were unthreaded at the breast height of standing trees instead of fallen trees. Then the spectra data were collected by autoscan method of NIR. The annual ring density was determined by mercury immersion. And the models were made and analyzed by the partial least square (PLS) and full cross validation in the 350-2 500 nm wavelength range. The results showed that high coefficients were obtained between the annual ring and the NIR fitted data. The correlation coefficient of prediction model was 0.88 and 0.91 in the middle diameter and bigger diameter, respectively. Moreover, high coefficients of correlation were also obtained between annual ring density laboratory-determined and the NIR fitted data in the middle diameter of Paulownia elongate standing trees, the correlation coefficient of calibration model and prediction model were 0.90 and 0.83, and the standard errors of calibration (SEC) and standard errors of prediction(SEP) were 0.012 and 0.016, respectively. The method can simply, rapidly and non-destructively estimate the annual ring density of the Paulownia elongate standing trees close to the cutting age.

Transportation Annual Survey 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-22

The purpose of this annual survey is to provide national estimates of revenue, expenses, and vehicle fleet inventories for commercial motor freight transportation and public warehousing service industries. The United States Code, Title 13, authorizes...

Estimating sediment discharge: Appendix D

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, John R.; Simões, Francisco J. M.

2008-01-01

Sediment-discharge measurements usually are available on a discrete or periodic basis. However, estimates of sediment transport often are needed for unmeasured periods, such as when daily or annual sediment-discharge values are sought, or when estimates of transport rates for unmeasured or hypothetical flows are required. Selected methods for estimating suspended-sediment, bed-load, bed- material-load, and total-load discharges have been presented in some detail elsewhere in this volume. The purposes of this contribution are to present some limitations and potential pitfalls associated with obtaining and using the requisite data and equations to estimate sediment discharges and to provide guidance for selecting appropriate estimating equations. Records of sediment discharge are derived from data collected with sufficient frequency to obtain reliable estimates for the computational interval and period. Most sediment- discharge records are computed at daily or annual intervals based on periodically collected data, although some partial records represent discrete or seasonal intervals such as those for flood periods. The method used to calculate sediment- discharge records is dependent on the types and frequency of available data. Records for suspended-sediment discharge computed by methods described by Porterfield (1972) are most prevalent, in part because measurement protocols and computational techniques are well established and because suspended sediment composes the bulk of sediment dis- charges for many rivers. Discharge records for bed load, total load, or in some cases bed-material load plus wash load are less common. Reliable estimation of sediment discharges presupposes that the data on which the estimates are based are comparable and reliable. Unfortunately, data describing a selected characteristic of sediment were not necessarily derived—collected, processed, analyzed, or interpreted—in a consistent manner. For example, bed-load data collected with

Annual Direct Medical Costs of Diabetic Foot Disease in Brazil: A Cost of Illness Study.

PubMed

Toscano, Cristiana M; Sugita, Tatiana H; Rosa, Michelle Q M; Pedrosa, Hermelinda C; Rosa, Roger Dos S; Bahia, Luciana R

2018-01-08

The aim of this study was to estimate the annual costs for the treatment of diabetic foot disease (DFD) in Brazil. We conducted a cost-of-illness study of DFD in 2014, while considering the Brazilian Public Healthcare System (SUS) perspective. Direct medical costs of outpatient management and inpatient care were considered. For outpatient costs, a panel of experts was convened from which utilization of healthcare services for the management of DFD was obtained. When considering the range of syndromes included in the DFD spectrum, we developed four well-defined hypothetical DFD cases: (1) peripheral neuropathy without ulcer, (2) non-infected foot ulcer, (3) infected foot ulcer, and (4) clinical management of amputated patients. Quantities of each healthcare service was then multiplied by their respective unit costs obtained from national price listings. We then developed a decision analytic tree to estimate nationwide costs of DFD in Brazil, while taking into the account the estimated cost per case and considering epidemiologic parameters obtained from a national survey, secondary data, and the literature. For inpatient care, ICD10 codes related to DFD were identified and costs of hospitalizations due to osteomyelitis, amputations, and other selected DFD related conditions were obtained from a nationwide hospitalization database. Direct medical costs of DFD in Brazil was estimated considering the 2014 purchasing power parity (PPP) (1 Int$ = 1.748 BRL). We estimated that the annual direct medical costs of DFD in 2014 was Int$ 361 million, which denotes 0.31% of public health expenses for this period. Of the total, Int$ 27.7 million (13%) was for inpatient, and Int$ 333.5 million (87%) for outpatient care. Despite using different methodologies to estimate outpatient and inpatient costs related to DFD, this is the first study to assess the overall economic burden of DFD in Brazil, while considering all of its syndromes and both outpatients and inpatients. Although we

Comparison of calculation methods for estimating annual carbon stock change in German forests under forest management in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

PubMed

Röhling, Steffi; Dunger, Karsten; Kändler, Gerald; Klatt, Susann; Riedel, Thomas; Stümer, Wolfgang; Brötz, Johannes

2016-12-01

The German greenhouse gas inventory in the land use change sector strongly depends on national forest inventory data. As these data were collected periodically 1987, 2002, 2008 and 2012, the time series on emissions show several "jumps" due to biomass stock change, especially between 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2008 while within the periods the emissions seem to be constant due to the application of periodical average emission factors. This does not reflect inter-annual variability in the time series, which would be assumed as the drivers for the carbon stock changes fluctuate between the years. Therefore additional data, which is available on annual basis, should be introduced into the calculations of the emissions inventories in order to get more plausible time series. This article explores the possibility of introducing an annual rather than periodical approach to calculating emission factors with the given data and thus smoothing the trajectory of time series for emissions from forest biomass. Two approaches are introduced to estimate annual changes derived from periodic data: the so-called logging factor method and the growth factor method. The logging factor method incorporates annual logging data to project annual values from periodic values. This is less complex to implement than the growth factor method, which additionally adds growth data into the calculations. Calculation of the input variables is based on sound statistical methodologies and periodically collected data that cannot be altered. Thus a discontinuous trajectory of the emissions over time remains, even after the adjustments. It is intended to adopt this approach in the German greenhouse gas reporting in order to meet the request for annually adjusted values.

The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

PubMed

DiMasi, Joseph A; Hansen, Ronald W; Grabowski, Henry G

2003-03-01

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science B.V.

Use of eddy-covariance methods to "calibrate" simple estimators of evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, David M.; Geurink, Jeffrey S.; Swancar, Amy

2017-01-01

Direct measurement of actual evapotranspiration (ET) provides quantification of this large component of the hydrologic budget, but typically requires long periods of record and large instrumentation and labor costs. Simple surrogate methods of estimating ET, if “calibrated” to direct measurements of ET, provide a reliable means to quantify ET. Eddy-covariance measurements of ET were made for 12 years (2004-2015) at an unimproved bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) pasture in Florida. These measurements were compared to annual rainfall derived from rain gage data and monthly potential ET (PET) obtained from a long-term (since 1995) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) statewide, 2-kilometer, daily PET product. The annual proportion of ET to rainfall indicates a strong correlation (r2=0.86) to annual rainfall; the ratio increases linearly with decreasing rainfall. Monthly ET rates correlated closely (r2=0.84) to the USGS PET product. The results indicate that simple surrogate methods of estimating actual ET show positive potential in the humid Florida climate given the ready availability of historical rainfall and PET.

Assays for estimating HIV incidence: updated global market assessment and estimated economic value.

PubMed

Morrison, Charles S; Homan, Rick; Mack, Natasha; Seepolmuang, Pairin; Averill, Megan; Taylor, Jamilah; Osborn, Jennifer; Dailey, Peter; Parkin, Neil; Ongarello, Stefano; Mastro, Timothy D

2017-11-01

Accurate incidence estimates are needed to characterize the HIV epidemic and guide prevention efforts. HIV Incidence assays are cost-effective laboratory assays that provide incidence estimates from cross-sectional surveys. We conducted a global market assessment of HIV incidence assays under three market scenarios and estimated the economic value of improved incidence assays. We interviewed 27 stakeholders, and reviewed journal articles, working group proceedings, and manufacturers' sales figures. We determined HIV incidence assay use in 2014, and estimated use in 2015 to 2017 and in 5 to 10-years under three market scenarios, as well as the cost of conducting national and key population surveys using an HIV incidence assay with improved performance. Global 2014 HIV incidence assay use was 308,900 tests, highest in Asia and mostly for case- and population-based surveillance. Estimated 2015 to 2017 use was 94,475 annually, with declines due to China and the United States discontinuing incidence assay use for domestic surveillance. Annual projected 5 to 10 year use under scenario 1 - no change in technology - was 94,475. For scenario 2 - a moderately improved incidence assay - projected annual use was 286,031. Projected annual use for scenario 3 - game-changing technologies with an HIV incidence assay part of (a) standard confirmatory testing, and (b) standard rapid testing, were 500,000 and 180 million, respectively. As HIV incidence assay precision increases, decreased sample sizes required for incidence estimation resulted in $5 to 23 million annual reductions in survey costs and easily offset the approximately $3 million required to develop a new assay. Improved HIV incidence assays could substantially reduce HIV incidence estimation costs. Continued development of HIV incidence assays with improved performance is required to realize these cost benefits. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

PubMed

DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

2016-05-01

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias of health estimates obtained from chronic disease and risk factor surveillance systems using telephone population surveys in Australia: results from a representative face-to-face survey in Australia from 2010 to 2013.

PubMed

Dal Grande, Eleonora; Chittleborough, Catherine R; Campostrini, Stefano; Taylor, Anne W

2016-04-18

Emerging communication technologies have had an impact on population-based telephone surveys worldwide. Our objective was to examine the potential biases of health estimates in South Australia, a state of Australia, obtained via current landline telephone survey methodologies and to report on the impact of mobile-only household on household surveys. Data from an annual multi-stage, systematic, clustered area, face-to-face population survey, Health Omnibus Survey (approximately 3000 interviews annually), included questions about telephone ownership to assess the population that were non-contactable by current telephone sampling methods (2006 to 2013). Univariable analyses (2010 to 2013) and trend analyses were conducted for sociodemographic and health indicator variables in relation to telephone status. Relative coverage biases (RCB) of two hypothetical telephone samples was undertaken by examining the prevalence estimates of health status and health risk behaviours (2010 to 2013): directory-listed numbers, consisting mainly of landline telephone numbers and a small proportion of mobile telephone numbers; and a random digit dialling (RDD) sample of landline telephone numbers which excludes mobile-only households. Telephone (landline and mobile) coverage in South Australia is very high (97%). Mobile telephone ownership increased slightly (7.4%), rising from 89.7% in 2006 to 96.3% in 2013; mobile-only households increased by 431% over the eight year period from 5.2% in 2006 to 27.6% in 2013. Only half of the households have either a mobile or landline number listed in the telephone directory. There were small differences in the prevalence estimates for current asthma, arthritis, diabetes and obesity between the hypothetical telephone samples and the overall sample. However, prevalence estimate for diabetes was slightly underestimated (RCB value of -0.077) in 2013. Mixed RCB results were found for having a mental health condition for both telephone samples. Current

Methods for estimating annual exceedance probability discharges for streams in Arkansas, based on data through water year 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2016-08-04

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study to update regional skew, annual exceedance probability discharges, and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability discharges for ungaged locations on streams in the study area with the use of recent geospatial data, new analytical methods, and available annual peak-discharge data through the 2013 water year. An analysis of regional skew using Bayesian weighted least-squares/Bayesian generalized-least squares regression was performed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and parts of Missouri and Oklahoma. The newly developed constant regional skew of -0.17 was used in the computation of annual exceedance probability discharges for 281 streamgages used in the regional regression analysis. Based on analysis of covariance, four flood regions were identified for use in the generation of regional regression models. Thirty-nine basin characteristics were considered as potential explanatory variables, and ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the optimum combinations of basin characteristics for each of the four regions. Basin characteristics in candidate models were evaluated based on multicollinearity with other basin characteristics (variance inflation factor < 2.5) and statistical significance at the 95-percent confidence level (p ≤ 0.05). Generalized least-squares regression was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region. Average standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 32.76 to 59.53 percent, with the largest range in flood region D. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 90.29 to 97.28 percent, with the largest range also in flood region D. The regional regression equations apply only to locations on streams in Arkansas where annual peak discharges are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

PubMed

Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

2017-09-29

Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed

Moving to an annual inventory in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

David Azuma

2000-01-01

The process of moving toward an annual inventory in the Pacific Coast states began with educating the individual states as to what might be involved in the annual system. The states and some industry groups voiced concerns about inventorying unproductive or reserved lands on an annual basis. The states in particular were concerned about the ability to estimate periodic...

The first step toward genetic selection for host tolerance to infectious pathogens: obtaining the tolerance phenotype through group estimates

PubMed Central

Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.; Villanueva, Beatriz; Kyriazakis, Ilias

2012-01-01

Reliable phenotypes are paramount for meaningful quantification of genetic variation and for estimating individual breeding values on which genetic selection is based. In this paper, we assert that genetic improvement of host tolerance to disease, although desirable, may be first of all handicapped by the ability to obtain unbiased tolerance estimates at a phenotypic level. In contrast to resistance, which can be inferred by appropriate measures of within host pathogen burden, tolerance is more difficult to quantify as it refers to change in performance with respect to changes in pathogen burden. For this reason, tolerance phenotypes have only been specified at the level of a group of individuals, where such phenotypes can be estimated using regression analysis. However, few stsudies have raised the potential bias in these estimates resulting from confounding effects between resistance and tolerance. Using a simulation approach, we demonstrate (i) how these group tolerance estimates depend on within group variation and co-variation in resistance, tolerance, and vigor (performance in a pathogen free environment); and (ii) how tolerance estimates are affected by changes in pathogen virulence over the time course of infection and by the timing of measurements. We found that in order to obtain reliable group tolerance estimates, it is important to account for individual variation in vigor, if present, and that all individuals are at the same stage of infection when measurements are taken. The latter requirement makes estimation of tolerance based on cross-sectional field data challenging, as individuals become infected at different time points and the individual onset of infection is unknown. Repeated individual measurements of within host pathogen burden and performance would not only be valuable for inferring the infection status of individuals in field conditions, but would also provide tolerance estimates that capture the entire time course of infection. PMID

Regional Rates of Young US Forest Growth Estimated From Annual Landsat Disturbance History and IKONOS Stereo Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neigh, Christopher S. R.; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Bourget, Paul; Rishmawi, Khaldoun; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Cook, Bruce D.; Nelson, Ross

2015-01-01

Forests of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) have been found to be a large contributor to the global atmospheric carbon sink. The magnitude and nature of this sink is still uncertain and recent studies have sought to define the dynamics that control its strength and longevity. The Landsat series of satellites has been a vital resource to understand the long-term changes in land cover that can impact ecosystem function and terrestrial carbonstock. We combine annual Landsat forest disturbance history from 1985 to 2011 with single date IKONOS stereoimagery to estimate the change in young forest canopy height and above ground live dry biomass accumulation for selected sites in the CONUS. Our approach follows an approximately linear growth rate following clearing over short intervals and does not estimate the distinct non-linear growth rate over longer intervals.We produced canopy height models by differencing digital surface models estimated from IKONOS stereo pairs with national elevation data (NED). Correlations between height and biomass were established independently using airborne LiDAR, and then applied to the IKONOS-estimated canopy height models. Graphing current biomass against time since disturbance provided biomass accumulation rates. For 20 study sites distributed across five regions of the CONUS, 19 showed statistically significant recovery trends (p is less than 0.001) with canopy growth from 0.26 m yr-1to 0.73 m yr-1. Above ground live dry biomass (AGB) density accumulation ranged from 1.31 t/ha yr-1 to 12.47 t/ha yr-1. Mean forest AGB accumulationwas 6.31 t/ha yr-1 among all sites with significant growth trends. We evaluated the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to field estimated site index curves of growth, airborne LiDAR data, and independent model predictions of C accumulation. Growth estimates found with this approach are consistent with site index curves and total biomass estimates fall within the range of field estimates. This is aviable

An Optimal Estimation Method to Obtain Surface Layer Turbulent Fluxes from Profile Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, D.

2015-12-01

In the absence of direct turbulence measurements, the turbulence characteristics of the atmospheric surface layer are often derived from measurements of the surface layer mean properties based on Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST). This approach requires two levels of the ensemble mean wind, temperature, and water vapor, from which the fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and water vapor can be obtained. When only one measurement level is available, the roughness heights and the assumed properties of the corresponding variables at the respective roughness heights are used. In practice, the temporal mean with large number of samples are used in place of the ensemble mean. However, in many situations the samples of data are taken from multiple levels. It is thus desirable to derive the boundary layer flux properties using all measurements. In this study, we used an optimal estimation approach to derive surface layer properties based on all available measurements. This approach assumes that the samples are taken from a population whose ensemble mean profile follows the MOST. An optimized estimate is obtained when the results yield a minimum cost function defined as a weighted summation of all error variance at each sample altitude. The weights are based one sample data variance and the altitude of the measurements. This method was applied to measurements in the marine atmospheric surface layer from a small boat using radiosonde on a tethered balloon where temperature and relative humidity profiles in the lowest 50 m were made repeatedly in about 30 minutes. We will present the resultant fluxes and the derived MOST mean profiles using different sets of measurements. The advantage of this method over the 'traditional' methods will be illustrated. Some limitations of this optimization method will also be discussed. Its application to quantify the effects of marine surface layer environment on radar and communication signal propagation will be shown as well.

Estimates of the solar internal angular velocity obtained with the Mt. Wilson 60-foot solar tower

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhodes, Edward J., Jr.; Cacciani, Alessandro; Woodard, Martin; Tomczyk, Steven; Korzennik, Sylvain

1987-01-01

Estimates are obtained of the solar internal angular velocity from measurements of the frequency splittings of p-mode oscillations. A 16-day time series of full-disk Dopplergrams obtained during July and August 1984 at the 60-foot tower telescope of the Mt. Wilson Observatory is analyzed. Power spectra were computed for all of the zonal, tesseral, and sectoral p-modes from l = 0 to 89 and for all of the sectoral p-modes from l = 90 to 200. A mean power spectrum was calculated for each degree up to 89. The frequency differences of all of the different nonzonal modes were calculated for these mean power spectra.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

PubMed Central

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index.

PubMed

Szilagyi, Jozsef; Harvey, F Edwin; Ayers, Jerry F

2003-01-01

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.

Estimation and analysis of interannual variations in tropical oceanic rainfall using data from SSM/I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Wesley

1992-01-01

Rainfall over tropical ocean regions, particularly in the tropical Pacific, is estimated using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Instantaneous rainfall estimates are derived from brightness temperature values obtained from the satellite data using the Hughes D-Matrix algorithm. Comparisons with other satellite techniques are made to validate the SSM/I results for the tropical Pacific. The correlation coefficients are relatively high for the three data sets investigated, especially for the annual case.

24 CFR 883.604 - Maximum annual commitment and project account.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... annual commitment. The maximum annual contribution that may be contracted for in the ACC is the total of... annual commitment exceeds the amount actually paid out under the ACC each year. Payments will be made... specifically approved by the Secretary. (2) Whenever a HUD-approved estimate of required payments under the ACC...

24 CFR 883.604 - Maximum annual commitment and project account.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... annual commitment. The maximum annual contribution that may be contracted for in the ACC is the total of... annual commitment exceeds the amount actually paid out under the ACC each year. Payments will be made... specifically approved by the Secretary. (2) Whenever a HUD-approved estimate of required payments under the ACC...

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, T.A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R.J.

1995-12-01

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, providesmore » estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories.« less

Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India: Estimate adjusted for baseline mortality.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik

2016-05-01

In India, more than a billion population is at risk of exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration exceeding World Health Organization air quality guideline, posing a serious threat to health. Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure is poorly known for India. Here we develop a non-linear power law (NLP) function to estimate the relative risk associated with ambient PM2.5 exposure using satellite-based PM2.5 concentration (2001-2010) that is bias-corrected against coincident direct measurements. We show that estimate of annual premature death in India is lower by 14.7% (19.2%) using NLP (integrated exposure risk function, IER) for assumption of uniform baseline mortality across India (as considered in the global burden of disease study) relative to the estimate obtained by adjusting for state-specific baseline mortality using GDP as a proxy. 486,100 (811,000) annual premature death in India is estimated using NLP (IER) risk functions after baseline mortality adjustment. 54.5% of premature death estimated using NLP risk function is attributed to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 24.0% to ischemic heart disease (IHD), 18.5% to stroke and the remaining 3.0% to lung cancer (LC). 44,900 (5900-173,300) less premature death is expected annually, if India achieves its present annual air quality target of 40μgm(-3). Our results identify the worst affected districts in terms of ambient PM2.5 exposure and resulting annual premature death and call for initiation of long-term measures through a systematic framework of pollution and health data archive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

PubMed

Kirk, Emilie R; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R; Linquist, Bruce A

2015-01-01

Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

Estimation of peak-discharge frequency of urban streams in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.; Moore, Brian L.; Rose, Martin F.

1997-01-01

An investigation of flood-hydrograph characteristics for streams in urban Jefferson County, Kentucky, was made to obtain hydrologic information needed for waterresources management. Equations for estimating peak-discharge frequencies for ungaged streams in the county were developed by combining (1) long-term annual peakdischarge data and rainfall-runoff data collected from 1991 to 1995 in 13 urban basins and (2) long-term annual peak-discharge data in four rural basins located in hydrologically similar areas of neighboring counties. The basins ranged in size from 1.36 to 64.0 square miles. The U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall- Runoff Model (RRM) was calibrated for each of the urban basins. The calibrated models were used with long-term, historical rainfall and pan-evaporation data to simulate 79 years of annual peak-discharge data. Peak-discharge frequencies were estimated by fitting the logarithms of the annual peak discharges to a Pearson-Type III frequency distribution. The simulated peak-discharge frequencies were adjusted for improved reliability by application of bias-correction factors derived from peakdischarge frequencies based on local, observed annual peak discharges. The three-parameter and the preferred seven-parameter nationwide urban-peak-discharge regression equations previously developed by USGS investigators provided biased (high) estimates for the urban basins studied. Generalized-least-square regression procedures were used to relate peakdischarge frequency to selected basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency by adjusting peak-dischargefrequency estimates made by use of the threeparameter nationwide urban regression equations. The regression equations are presented in equivalent forms as functions of contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin development factor, which is an index for measuring the efficiency of the basin drainage system. Estimates of peak discharges for streams

Annual variation in the atmospheric radon concentration in Japan.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yuka; Yasuoka, Yumi; Omori, Yasutaka; Nagahama, Hiroyuki; Sanada, Tetsuya; Muto, Jun; Suzuki, Toshiyuki; Homma, Yoshimi; Ihara, Hayato; Kubota, Kazuhito; Mukai, Takahiro

2015-08-01

Anomalous atmospheric variations in radon related to earthquakes have been observed in hourly exhaust-monitoring data from radioisotope institutes in Japan. The extraction of seismic anomalous radon variations would be greatly aided by understanding the normal pattern of variation in radon concentrations. Using atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data from five sampling sites, we show that a sinusoidal regression curve can be fitted to the data. In addition, we identify areas where the atmospheric radon variation is significantly affected by the variation in atmospheric turbulence and the onshore-offshore pattern of Asian monsoons. Furthermore, by comparing the sinusoidal regression curve for the normal annual (seasonal) variations at the five sites to the sinusoidal regression curve for a previously published dataset of radon values at the five Japanese prefectures, we can estimate the normal annual variation pattern. By fitting sinusoidal regression curves to the previously published dataset containing sites in all Japanese prefectures, we find that 72% of the Japanese prefectures satisfy the requirements of the sinusoidal regression curve pattern. Using the normal annual variation pattern of atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data, these prefectures are suitable areas for obtaining anomalous radon variations related to earthquakes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Imputatoin and Model-Based Updating Technique for Annual Forest Inventories

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2001-01-01

The USDA Forest Service is developing an annual inventory system to establish the capability of producing annual estimates of timber volume and related variables. The inventory system features measurement of an annual sample of field plots with options for updating data for plots measured in previous years. One imputation and two model-based updating techniques are...

Evaluation of the annual Canadian biodosimetry network intercomparisons

PubMed Central

Wilkins, Ruth C.; Beaton-Green, Lindsay A.; Lachapelle, Sylvie; Kutzner, Barbara C.; Ferrarotto, Catherine; Chauhan, Vinita; Marro, Leonora; Livingston, Gordon K.; Boulay Greene, Hillary; Flegal, Farrah N.

2015-01-01

Abstract Purpose: To evaluate the importance of annual intercomparisons for maintaining the capacity and capabilities of a well-established biodosimetry network in conjunction with assessing efficient and effective analysis methods for emergency response. Materials and methods: Annual intercomparisons were conducted between laboratories in the Canadian National Biological Dosimetry Response Plan. Intercomparisons were performed over a six-year period and comprised of the shipment of 10–12 irradiated, blinded blood samples for analysis by each of the participating laboratories. Dose estimates were determined by each laboratory using the dicentric chromosome assay (conventional and QuickScan scoring) and where possible the cytokinesis block micronucleus (CBMN) assay. Dose estimates were returned to the lead laboratory for evaluation and comparison. Results: Individual laboratories performed comparably from year to year with only slight fluctuations in performance. Dose estimates using the dicentric chromosome assay were accurate about 80% of the time and the QuickScan method for scoring the dicentric chromosome assay was proven to reduce the time of analysis without having a significant effect on the dose estimates. Although analysis with the CBMN assay was comparable to QuickScan scoring with respect to speed, the accuracy of the dose estimates was greatly reduced. Conclusions: Annual intercomparisons are necessary to maintain a network of laboratories for emergency response biodosimetry as they evoke confidence in their capabilities. PMID:25670072

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, M.R.; Skrivan, James A.

1981-01-01

Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)

Importance of Geosat orbit and tidal errors in the estimation of large-scale Indian Ocean variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, Claire; Zlotnicki, Victor

1992-01-01

To improve the estimate accuracy of large-scale meridional sea-level variations, Geosat ERM data on the Indian Ocean for a 26-month period were processed using two different techniques of orbit error reduction. The first technique removes an along-track polynomial of degree 1 over about 5000 km and the second technique removes an along-track once-per-revolution sine wave about 40,000 km. Results obtained show that the polynomial technique produces stronger attenuation of both the tidal error and the large-scale oceanic signal. After filtering, the residual difference between the two methods represents 44 percent of the total variance and 23 percent of the annual variance. The sine-wave method yields a larger estimate of annual and interannual meridional variations.

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

PubMed Central

Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine, the willow flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Durst, Scott L.; Sogge, Mark K.; Koronkiewicz, Thomas J.; Paxton, Kristina L.

2017-01-01

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10-year breeding season study with that from a 5-year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.

Abundance and biomass of herbivorous zooplankton off Kingston, Jamaica, with estimates of their annual production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Cheryl; Roff, John C.

1990-10-01

During 1985-1986 weekly collections of zooplankton were made off Lime Cay, Jamaica, which is representative of the cays area off southern Jamaica. The dominant (non-copepod) herbivorous taxa, Larvacea, Thaliacea, Cladocera and Pteropoda, were enumerated, and their daily biomasses were estimated by direct weighing or from length-weight regressions. The dominant taxa, in abundance, were the Oikopleuridae and Fritillaridae (49·8% and 35·8%, respectively), but the dominant taxon in terms of biomass was Thalia democratica-on average 75·2% of the total. These herbivorous taxa generally exhibited pronounced variations in abundance which, with the exception of an inverse relationship between Fritillaria spp. and the picoplankton, were not correlated with any size fraction of the phytoplankton. Calculations suggest that, in total, these "other" herbivorous groups may equal the copepods in terms of annual production, and may on occasions exceed them by nearly three-fold.

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... procedures contained in the EnergyStar Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... procedures contained in the EnergyStar Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... procedures contained in the ENERGY STAR Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

Comparison of internal dose estimates obtained using organ-level, voxel S value, and Monte Carlo techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grimes, Joshua, E-mail: grimes.joshua@mayo.edu; Celler, Anna

2014-09-15

Purpose: The authors’ objective was to compare internal dose estimates obtained using the Organ Level Dose Assessment with Exponential Modeling (OLINDA/EXM) software, the voxel S value technique, and Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo dose estimates were used as the reference standard to assess the impact of patient-specific anatomy on the final dose estimate. Methods: Six patients injected with{sup 99m}Tc-hydrazinonicotinamide-Tyr{sup 3}-octreotide were included in this study. A hybrid planar/SPECT imaging protocol was used to estimate {sup 99m}Tc time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs) for kidneys, liver, spleen, and tumors. Additionally, TIACs were predicted for {sup 131}I, {sup 177}Lu, and {sup 90}Y assuming themore » same biological half-lives as the {sup 99m}Tc labeled tracer. The TIACs were used as input for OLINDA/EXM for organ-level dose calculation and voxel level dosimetry was performed using the voxel S value method and Monte Carlo simulation. Dose estimates for {sup 99m}Tc, {sup 131}I, {sup 177}Lu, and {sup 90}Y distributions were evaluated by comparing (i) organ-level S values corresponding to each method, (ii) total tumor and organ doses, (iii) differences in right and left kidney doses, and (iv) voxelized dose distributions calculated by Monte Carlo and the voxel S value technique. Results: The S values for all investigated radionuclides used by OLINDA/EXM and the corresponding patient-specific S values calculated by Monte Carlo agreed within 2.3% on average for self-irradiation, and differed by as much as 105% for cross-organ irradiation. Total organ doses calculated by OLINDA/EXM and the voxel S value technique agreed with Monte Carlo results within approximately ±7%. Differences between right and left kidney doses determined by Monte Carlo were as high as 73%. Comparison of the Monte Carlo and voxel S value dose distributions showed that each method produced similar dose volume histograms with a minimum dose covering 90% of the volume

Estimating Annual Soil Carbon Loss in Agricultural Peatland Soils Using a Nitrogen Budget Approach

PubMed Central

Kirk, Emilie R.; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R.; Linquist, Bruce A.

2015-01-01

Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 – 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 – 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 – 81 % of plant N uptake (129 – 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 – 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 – 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices. PMID:25822494

Estimating annual growth losses from drought in loblolly pine plantations

Treesearch

Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; Daniel Waiswa

2013-01-01

Growth data over the past 10 years from loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations established across the natural range of the species were linked with annual rainfall data over the same period to evaluate the impact of drought on stand growth. Regression procedures were used to determine (1) whether dominant height growth or basal area growth or...

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

10 CFR 490.309 - Annual reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Annual reporting requirements. 490.309 Section 490.309 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVE FUEL TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM Alternative Fuel... shall file an annual report under this section, on a form obtainable from DOE, with the Office of Energy...

10 CFR 490.309 - Annual reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Annual reporting requirements. 490.309 Section 490.309 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVE FUEL TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM Alternative Fuel... shall file an annual report under this section, on a form obtainable from DOE, with the Office of Energy...

10 CFR 490.309 - Annual reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Annual reporting requirements. 490.309 Section 490.309 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVE FUEL TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM Alternative Fuel... shall file an annual report under this section, on a form obtainable from DOE, with the Office of Energy...

10 CFR 490.309 - Annual reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Annual reporting requirements. 490.309 Section 490.309 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVE FUEL TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM Alternative Fuel... shall file an annual report under this section, on a form obtainable from DOE, with the Office of Energy...

10 CFR 490.309 - Annual reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Annual reporting requirements. 490.309 Section 490.309 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVE FUEL TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM Alternative Fuel... shall file an annual report under this section, on a form obtainable from DOE, with the Office of Energy...

Local annual survival and seasonal residency rates of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, S.M.; Collazo, J.A.; Alldredge, M.W.; Harrington, B.A.; Lewis, A.R.

2007-01-01

We report seasonal residency and local annual survival rates of migratory Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) at the Cabo Rojo salt flats, Puerto Rico. Residency rate (daily probability of remaining on the flats) was 0.991 ± 0.001 (x̄ ± SE), yielding a mean length of stay of 110 days. This finding supports the inclusion of the Caribbean as part of the species' winter range. Average estimated percentage of fat was low but increased throughout the season, which suggests that birds replenish some spent fat reserves and strive for energetic maintenance. Local annual survival rate was 0.62 ± 0.04, within the range of values reported for breeding populations at Manitoba and Alaska (0.53–0.76). The similarity was not unexpected because estimates were obtained annually but at opposite sites of their annual migratory movements. Birds captured at the salt flats appeared to be a mix of birds from various parts of the breeding range, judging from morphology (culmen's coefficient of variation = 9.1, n = 106). This suggested that origin (breeding area) of birds and their proportion in the data should be ascertained and accounted for in analyses to glean the full conservation implications of winter-based annual survival estimates. Those data are needed to unravel the possibility that individuals of distinct populations are affected by differential mortality factors across different migratory routes. Mean length of stay strongly suggested that habitat quality at the salt flats was high. Rainfall and tidal flow combine to increase food availability during fall. The salt flats dry up gradually toward late January, at the onset of the dry season. Semipalmated Sandpipers may move west to other Greater Antilles or south to sites such as coastal Surinam until the onset of spring migration. They are not an oversummering species at the salt flats. Conservation efforts in the Caribbean region require understanding the dynamics of this species throughout winter to protect

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1978-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Estimate of the direct production losses in Canadian dairy herds with subclinical Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

PubMed Central

Tiwari, Ashwani; VanLeeuwen, John A.; Dohoo, Ian R.; Keefe, Greg P.; Weersink, Alfons

2008-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the annual losses from Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) for an average, MAP-seropositive, Canadian dairy herd. A partial-budget simulation model was developed with 4 components of direct production losses (decreased milk production, premature voluntary culling, mortality, and reproductive losses). Input values were obtained primarily from a national seroprevalence survey of 373 Canadian dairy farms in 8 of 10 provinces. The model took into account the variability and uncertainty of the required input values; consequently, it produced probability distributions of the estimated losses. For an average Canadian dairy herd with 12.7% of 61 cows seropositive for MAP, the mean loss was $2992 (95% C.I., $143 to $9741) annually, or $49 per cow per year. Additional culling, decreased milk production, mortality, and reproductive losses accounted for 46%, 9%, 16%, and 29% of the losses, respectively. Canadian dairy producers should use best management practices to reduce these substantial annual losses. PMID:18624066

Estimation of external dose by car-borne survey in Kerala, India.

PubMed

Hosoda, Masahiro; Tokonami, Shinji; Omori, Yasutaka; Sahoo, Sarata Kumar; Akiba, Suminori; Sorimachi, Atsuyuki; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Nair, Raghu Ram; Jayalekshmi, Padmavathy Amma; Sebastian, Paul; Iwaoka, Kazuki; Akata, Naofumi; Kudo, Hiromi

2015-01-01

A car-borne survey was carried out in Kerala, India to estimate external dose. Measurements were made with a 3-in × 3-in NaI(Tl) scintillation spectrometer from September 23 to 27, 2013. The routes were selected from 12 Panchayats in Karunagappally Taluk which were classified into high level, mid-level and low level high background radiation (HBR) areas. A heterogeneous distribution of air kerma rates was seen in the dose rate distribution map. The maximum air kerma rate, 2.1 μGy/h, was observed on a beach sand surface. 232Th activity concentration for the beach sand was higher than that for soil and grass surfaces, and the range of activity concentration was estimated to be 0.7-2.3 kBq/kg. The contribution of 232Th to air kerma rate was over 70% at the measurement points with values larger than 0.34 μGy/h. The maximum value of the annual effective dose in Karunagappally Taluk was observed around coastal areas, and it was estimated to be 13 mSv/y. More than 30% of all the annual effective doses obtained in this survey exceeded 1 mSv/y.

Using multi-year national survey cohorts for period estimates: an application of weighted discrete Poisson regression for assessing annual national mortality in US adults with and without diabetes, 2000-2006.

PubMed

Cheng, Yiling J; Gregg, Edward W; Rolka, Deborah B; Thompson, Theodore J

2016-12-15

Monitoring national mortality among persons with a disease is important to guide and evaluate progress in disease control and prevention. However, a method to estimate nationally representative annual mortality among persons with and without diabetes in the United States does not currently exist. The aim of this study is to demonstrate use of weighted discrete Poisson regression on national survey mortality follow-up data to estimate annual mortality rates among adults with diabetes. To estimate mortality among US adults with diabetes, we applied a weighted discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment to national survey data. Adult participants aged 18 or older with and without diabetes in the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2004 were followed up through 2006 for mortality status. We estimated mortality among all US adults, and by self-reported diabetes status at baseline. The time-varying covariates used were age and calendar year. Mortality among all US adults was validated using direct estimates from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Using our approach, annual all-cause mortality among all US adults ranged from 8.8 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0, 9.6) in year 2000 to 7.9 (95% CI: 7.6, 8.3) in year 2006. By comparison, the NVSS estimates ranged from 8.6 to 7.9 (correlation = 0.94). All-cause mortality among persons with diabetes decreased from 35.7 (95% CI: 28.4, 42.9) in 2000 to 31.8 (95% CI: 28.5, 35.1) in 2006. After adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, persons with diabetes had 2.1 (95% CI: 2.01, 2.26) times the risk of death of those without diabetes. Period-specific national mortality can be estimated for people with and without a chronic condition using national surveys with mortality follow-up and a discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment.

International energy annual 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-02-01

The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, and wind electric power, biofuels energy for the US, and biofuels electric power for Brazil. New in the 1996 edition are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum and coal,more » and the consumption and flaring of natural gas. 72 tabs.« less

LC-MS/MS-based approach for obtaining exposure estimates of metabolites in early clinical trials using radioactive metabolites as reference standards.

PubMed

Zhang, Donglu; Raghavan, Nirmala; Chando, Theodore; Gambardella, Janice; Fu, Yunlin; Zhang, Duxi; Unger, Steve E; Humphreys, W Griffith

2007-12-01

An LC-MS/MS-based approach that employs authentic radioactive metabolites as reference standards was developed to estimate metabolite exposures in early drug development studies. This method is useful to estimate metabolite levels in studies done with non-radiolabeled compounds where metabolite standards are not available to allow standard LC-MS/MS assay development. A metabolite mixture obtained from an in vivo source treated with a radiolabeled compound was partially purified, quantified, and spiked into human plasma to provide metabolite standard curves. Metabolites were analyzed by LC-MS/MS using the specific mass transitions and an internal standard. The metabolite concentrations determined by this approach were found to be comparable to those determined by valid LC-MS/MS assays. This approach does not requires synthesis of authentic metabolites or the knowledge of exact structures of metabolites, and therefore should provide a useful method to obtain early estimates of circulating metabolites in early clinical or toxicological studies.

Annual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994

DOE Data Explorer

Stern, David I. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Kaufmann, Robert K. [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

1998-01-01

The authors provide the first estimates, by year, of global man-made emissions of methane, from 1860 through 1994. The methods, including the rationale for the various coefficients and assumptions used in deriving the estimates, are described fully in Stern and Kaufmann (1995, 1996), which provides the estimates for the period 1860-1993; the data presented here are revised and updated through 1994. Some formulae and coefficients were also revised in that process. Estimates are provided for total anthropogenic emissions, as well as emissions for the following component categories: Flaring and Venting of Natural Gas; Oil and Gas Supply Systems, Excluding Flaring; Coal Mining; Biomass Burning; Livestock Farming; Rice Farming and Related Activities; Landfills. Changes in emissions over time were estimated by treating emissions as a function of variables (such as population or coal production) for which historical time series are available.

Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Pandey, S; Chadha, V K; Laxminarayan, R; Arinaminpathy, N

2017-04-01

There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines. We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings. Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8-156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings. Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used.

A time-frequency analysis method to obtain stable estimates of magnetotelluric response function based on Hilbert-Huang transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jianhua

2017-05-01

The time-frequency analysis method represents signal as a function of time and frequency, and it is considered a powerful tool for handling arbitrary non-stationary time series by using instantaneous frequency and instantaneous amplitude. It also provides a possible alternative to the analysis of the non-stationary magnetotelluric (MT) signal. Based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), a time-frequency analysis method is proposed to obtain stable estimates of the magnetotelluric response function. In contrast to conventional methods, the response function estimation is performed in the time-frequency domain using instantaneous spectra rather than in the frequency domain, which allows for imaging the response parameter content as a function of time and frequency. The theory of the method is presented and the mathematical model and calculation procedure, which are used to estimate response function based on HHT time-frequency spectrum, are discussed. To evaluate the results, response function estimates are compared with estimates from a standard MT data processing method based on the Fourier transform. All results show that apparent resistivities and phases, which are calculated from the HHT time-frequency method, are generally more stable and reliable than those determined from the simple Fourier analysis. The proposed method overcomes the drawbacks of the traditional Fourier methods, and the resulting parameter minimises the estimation bias caused by the non-stationary characteristics of the MT data.

Obtaining Parts

Science.gov Websites

The Cosmic Connection Parts for the Berkeley Detector Suppliers: Scintillator Eljen Technology 1 obtain the components needed to build the Berkeley Detector. These companies have helped previous the last update. He estimates that the cost to build a detector varies from $1500 to $2700 depending

Estimation of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, with a section on Vermont regional skew regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; with a section by Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 145 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and the basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction for estimating the flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 36.0, 38.7, 42.4, 44.9, 47.3, 50.7, and 55.1 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm. To improve estimates of the flood discharges for given exceedance probabilities at streamgages in Vermont, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed. The new generalized skew for the region is a constant, 0.44. The mean square error of the generalized skew coefficient is 0.078. This report describes a technique for using results from the regression equations to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record. This report also describes a technique for using a drainage-area adjustment to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Rainfall interception by annual grass and chaparral . . . losses compared

Treesearch

Edward S. Corbett; Robert P. Crouse

1968-01-01

Loss of precipitation due to interception by annual grass and grass litter was measured during three rainy seasons on the San Dimas Experimental Forest, in southern California. Interception loss from annual grass averaged 7.9 percent; that from mature chaparral cover, 12.8 percent. If chaparral stands were converted to grass, an estimated 1.3 inches of gross...

Estimates of streamflow characteristics for selected small streams, Baker River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, John R.

1987-01-01

Regression equations were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at eight ungaged sites on small streams in the Baker River basin in the North Cascade Mountains, Washington, that could be suitable for run-of-the-river hydropower development. The regression equations were obtained by relating known streamflow characteristics at 25 gaging stations in nearby basins to several physical and climatic variables that could be easily measured in gaged or ungaged basins. The known streamflow characteristics were mean annual flows, 1-, 3-, and 7-day low flows and high flows, mean monthly flows, and flow duration. Drainage area and mean annual precipitation were not the most significant variables in all the regression equations. Variance in the low flows and the summer mean monthly flows was reduced by including an index of glacierized area within the basin as a third variable. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 25 to 88%, and the largest errors were associated with the low flow characteristics. Discharge measurements made at the eight sites near midmonth each month during 1981 were used to estimate monthly mean flows at the sites for that period. These measurements also were correlated with concurrent daily mean flows from eight operating gaging stations. The correlations provided estimates of mean monthly flows that compared reasonably well with those estimated by the regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

The Annual Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the US Veterans Affairs Population.

PubMed

Young-Xu, Yinong; van Aalst, Robertus; Russo, Ellyn; Lee, Jason K H; Chit, Ayman

2017-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics have a substantial public health and economic burden in the United States (US). On average, over 200,000 people are hospitalized and an estimated 23,000 people die from respiratory and circulatory complications associated with seasonal influenza virus infections each year. Annual direct medical costs and indirect productivity costs across the US have been found to average respectively at $10.4 billion and $16.3 billion. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of severe influenza-induced illness on the US Veterans Affairs population. The five-year study period included 2010 through 2014. Influenza-attributed outcomes were estimated with a statistical regression model using observed emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths from the Veterans Health Administration of the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records and respiratory viral surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Data from VA's Managerial Cost Accounting system were used to estimate the costs of the emergency department and hospital visits. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics were used to estimate the costs of lost productivity; data on age at death, life expectancy and economic valuations for a statistical life year were used to estimate the costs of a premature death. An estimated 10,674 (95% CI 8,661-12,687) VA ED visits, 2,538 (95% CI 2,112-2,964) VA hospitalizations, 5,522 (95% CI 4,834-6,210) all-cause deaths, and 3,793 (95% CI 3,375-4,211) underlying respiratory or circulatory deaths (inside and outside VA) among adult Veterans were attributable to influenza each year from 2010 through 2014. The annual value of lost productivity amounted to $27 (95% CI $24-31) million and the annual costs for ED visits were $6.2 (95% CI $5.1-7.4) million. Ninety-six percent of VA hospitalizations resulted in either death or a discharge to home, with annual costs totaling $36 (95% CI

Annual Forest Inventories for the North Central Region of the United States

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark H. Hansen

1999-01-01

The primary objective in developing procedures for annual forest inventories for the north central region of the United States is to establish the capability of producing standard forest inventory and analysis estimates on an annual basis. The inventory system developed to accomplish this objective features several primary functions, including (1) an annual sample of...

Methods for estimating streamflow at mountain fronts in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, S.D.

1994-01-01

The infiltration of streamflow is potential recharge to alluvial-basin aquifers at or near mountain fronts in southern New Mexico. Data for 13 streamflow-gaging stations were used to determine a relation between mean annual stream- flow and basin and climatic conditions. Regression analysis was used to develop an equation that can be used to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of drainage areas and mean annual precipi- tation. The average standard error of estimate for this equation is 46 percent. Regression analysis also was used to develop an equation to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of active- channel width. Measurements of the width of active channels were determined for 6 of the 13 gaging stations. The average standard error of estimate for this relation is 29 percent. Stream- flow estimates made using a regression equation based on channel geometry are considered more reliable than estimates made from an equation based on regional relations of basin and climatic conditions. The sample size used to develop these relations was small, however, and the reported standard error of estimate may not represent that of the entire population. Active-channel-width measurements were made at 23 ungaged sites along the Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Data for additional sites would be needed for a more comprehensive assessment of mean annual streamflow in southern New Mexico.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

Treesearch

J. H. Stagge; D. E. Rosenberg; R. J. DeRose; T. M. Rittenour

2018-01-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually...

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

A method for estimating mean and low flows of streams in national forests of Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1985-01-01

Equations were developed for estimating mean annual discharge, 80-percent exceedance discharge, and 95-percent exceedance discharge for streams on national forest lands in Montana. The equations for mean annual discharge used active-channel width, drainage area and mean annual precipitation as independent variables, with active-channel width being most significant. The equations for 80-percent exceedance discharge and 95-percent exceedance discharge used only active-channel width as an independent variable. The standard error or estimate for the best equation for estimating mean annual discharge was 27 percent. The standard errors of estimate for the equations were 67 percent for estimating 80-percent exceedance discharge and 75 percent for estimating 95-percent exceedance discharge. (USGS)

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Evapotranspiration using Remote Sensing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beamer, J. P.; Morton, C.; Huntington, J. L.; Pohll, G.

2010-12-01

Estimating the annual evapotranspiration (ET) in arid and semi-arid environments is important for managing water resources. In this study we use remote sensing methods to estimate ET from different areas located in western and eastern Nevada. Surface energy balance (SEB) and vegetation indices (VI) are two common methods for estimating ET using satellite data. The purpose of this study is to compare these methods for estimating annual ET and highlight strengths and weaknesses in both methods. The SEB approach used is based on the Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model, which estimates ET as a residual of the energy balance. METRIC has been shown to produce accurate results in agricultural and riparian settings. The VI approach used is based on statistical relationships between annual ET and various VI’s. The VI approaches have also shown to produce fairly accurate estimates of ET for various vegetation types, however consideration for spatial variations in potential ET and precipitation amount are generally ignored, leading to restrictions in their application. In this work we develop a VI approach that considers the study area potential ET and precipitation amount and compare this approach to METRIC and flux tower estimates of annual ET for several arid phreatophyte shrubs and irrigated agriculture settings.

Obtaining parsimonious hydraulic conductivity fields using head and transport observations: A Bayesian geostatistical parameter estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fienen, M.; Hunt, R.; Krabbenhoft, D.; Clemo, T.

2009-08-01

Flow path delineation is a valuable tool for interpreting the subsurface hydrogeochemical environment. Different types of data, such as groundwater flow and transport, inform different aspects of hydrogeologic parameter values (hydraulic conductivity in this case) which, in turn, determine flow paths. This work combines flow and transport information to estimate a unified set of hydrogeologic parameters using the Bayesian geostatistical inverse approach. Parameter flexibility is allowed by using a highly parameterized approach with the level of complexity informed by the data. Despite the effort to adhere to the ideal of minimal a priori structure imposed on the problem, extreme contrasts in parameters can result in the need to censor correlation across hydrostratigraphic bounding surfaces. These partitions segregate parameters into facies associations. With an iterative approach in which partitions are based on inspection of initial estimates, flow path interpretation is progressively refined through the inclusion of more types of data. Head observations, stable oxygen isotopes (18O/16O ratios), and tritium are all used to progressively refine flow path delineation on an isthmus between two lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, northern Wisconsin, United States. Despite allowing significant parameter freedom by estimating many distributed parameter values, a smooth field is obtained.

Obtaining parsimonious hydraulic conductivity fields using head and transport observations: A Bayesian geostatistical parameter estimation approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, M.; Hunt, R.; Krabbenhoft, D.; Clemo, T.

2009-01-01

Flow path delineation is a valuable tool for interpreting the subsurface hydrogeochemical environment. Different types of data, such as groundwater flow and transport, inform different aspects of hydrogeologic parameter values (hydraulic conductivity in this case) which, in turn, determine flow paths. This work combines flow and transport information to estimate a unified set of hydrogeologic parameters using the Bayesian geostatistical inverse approach. Parameter flexibility is allowed by using a highly parameterized approach with the level of complexity informed by the data. Despite the effort to adhere to the ideal of minimal a priori structure imposed on the problem, extreme contrasts in parameters can result in the need to censor correlation across hydrostratigraphic bounding surfaces. These partitions segregate parameters into facies associations. With an iterative approach in which partitions are based on inspection of initial estimates, flow path interpretation is progressively refined through the inclusion of more types of data. Head observations, stable oxygen isotopes (18O/16O ratios), and tritium are all used to progressively refine flow path delineation on an isthmus between two lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, northern Wisconsin, United States. Despite allowing significant parameter freedom by estimating many distributed parameter values, a smooth field is obtained.

The annual increase of Northeastern regional timber stumpage prices: 1961 to 2002

Treesearch

John E. Wagner; Paul E. Sendak

2005-01-01

Annual percentage rates of change for Northeastern regional sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices were estimated for the period 1961 to 2002. In addition, we examined if there have been any changes in the annual percentage rate of change during the same period. The results showed that the real (nominal) annual percentage rates of change for hardwood sawtimber and...

The Regional Differences of Gpp Estimation by Solar Induced Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Lu, S.

2018-04-01

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of -5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

Estimated agricultural pesticide use for Southeast Stream-Quality Assessment, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.

2015-12-01

This report provides estimates of annual agricultural use of 262 pesticide compounds for counties and selected watersheds in parts of eight southeastern States for 2014. Estimates of county- and watershed-level annual agricultural pesticide use are provided as downloadable, tab-delimited files for both EPest-high and EPest-low.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Estimating Prices of Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

1986-01-01

Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

Screening for prostate cancer: estimating the magnitude of overdetection

PubMed Central

McGregor, M; Hanley, J A; Boivin, J F; McLean, R G

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: No randomized controlled trial of prostate cancer screening has been reported and none is likely to be completed in the near future. In the absence of direct evidence, the decision to screen must therefore be based on estimates of benefits and risks. The main risk of screening is overdetection--the detection of cancer that, if left untreated, would not cause death. In this study the authors estimate the level of overdetection that might result from annual screening of men aged 50-70. METHODS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable cancer (detectable cancer that would prove fatal before age 85 if left untreated) was calculated from the observed prostate cancer mortality rate in Quebec; the annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was calculated from 2 recent screening studies. RESULTS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 1.3 per 1000 men. The annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 8.0 per 1000 men. The estimated case-fatality rate among men up to 85 years of age was 16% (1.3/8.0) (sensitivity analysis 13% to 22%). INTERPRETATION: Of every 100 men with screen-detected prostate cancer, only 16 on average (13 to 22) could have their lives extended by surgery, since the prostate cancer would not cause death before age 85 in the remaining 84 (78 to 87). PMID:9861205

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach

PubMed Central

Chadha, V. K.; Laxminarayan, R.; Arinaminpathy, N.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines. We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings. RESULTS: Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8–156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings. CONCLUSIONS: Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used. PMID:28284250

A convenient method of obtaining percentile norms and accompanying interval estimates for self-report mood scales (DASS, DASS-21, HADS, PANAS, and sAD).

PubMed

Crawford, John R; Garthwaite, Paul H; Lawrie, Caroline J; Henry, Julie D; MacDonald, Marie A; Sutherland, Jane; Sinha, Priyanka

2009-06-01

A series of recent papers have reported normative data from the general adult population for commonly used self-report mood scales. To bring together and supplement these data in order to provide a convenient means of obtaining percentile norms for the mood scales. A computer program was developed that provides point and interval estimates of the percentile rank corresponding to raw scores on the various self-report scales. The program can be used to obtain point and interval estimates of the percentile rank of an individual's raw scores on the DASS, DASS-21, HADS, PANAS, and sAD mood scales, based on normative sample sizes ranging from 758 to 3822. The interval estimates can be obtained using either classical or Bayesian methods as preferred. The computer program (which can be downloaded at www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/MoodScore.htm) provides a convenient and reliable means of supplementing existing cut-off scores for self-report mood scales.

Spatial analysis of the annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; García-Martín, Abelardo

2017-11-01

The knowledge of drought (or wetness) conditions is necessary not only for a rational use of water resources but also for explaining landscape and ecology characteristics. An increase in aridity in many areas of the world is expected because of climate change (global warming). With the aim of analysing annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain, climate data from 81 locations within the 1951-2010 period were used. After computing the De Martonne aridity index at each location, a geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate geostatistics (regression kriging) were utilised to map this index throughout the region. Later, temporal trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, and the Sen's estimator was utilised to estimate the magnitude of trends. Maps of aridity trends were generated by ordinary kriging algorithm, providing a visualisation of detected annual and seasonal tendencies. An increase in aridity, as the De Martonne aridity index decreased, was apparent during the study period, mainly in the more humid locations of the north of the region. An increase of the seasonal De Martonne aridity index was also found, but it was only statistically significant in some locations in spring and summer, with the highest decreasing rate in the north of Extremadura. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum graphs, obtaining that firstly the change point occurred in spring, in the mid-1970s, later in the annual period in the late 1970s and finally in summer at the end of the 1980s.

Annual peak streamflow and ancillary data for small watersheds in central and western Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Asquith, William H.

2011-01-01

Estimates of annual peak-streamflow frequency are needed for flood-plain management, assessment of flood risk, and design of structures, such as roads, bridges, culverts, dams, and levees. Regional regression equations have been developed and are used extensively to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) watersheds in Texas (Asquith and Slade, 1997; Asquith and Thompson, 2008; Asquith and Roussel, 2009). The most recent regional regression equations were developed by using data from 638 Texas streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State with eight or more years of data by using drainage area, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation as predictor variables (Asquith and Roussel, 2009). However, because of a lack of sufficient historical streamflow data from small, rural watersheds in certain parts of the State (central and western), substantial uncertainity exists when using the regional regression equations for the purpose of estimating annual peak-streamflow frequency.

An annual quasidifference approach to water price elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, David R.; Griffin, Ronald C.

2008-08-01

The preferred price specification for retail water demand estimation has not been fully settled by prior literature. Empirical consistency of price indices is necessary to enable testing of competing specifications. Available methods of unbiasing the price index are summarized here. Using original rate information from several hundred Texas utilities, new indices of marginal and average price change are constructed. Marginal water price change is shown to explain consumption variation better than average water price change, based on standard information criteria. Annual change in quantity consumed per month is estimated with differences in climate variables and the new quasidifference marginal price index. As expected, the annual price elasticity of demand is found to vary with daily high and low temperatures and the frequency of precipitation.

Testing an automated method to estimate ground-water recharge from streamflow records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutledge, A.T.; Daniel, C.C.

1994-01-01

The computer program, RORA, allows automated analysis of streamflow hydrographs to estimate ground-water recharge. Output from the program, which is based on the recession-curve-displacement method (often referred to as the Rorabaugh method, for whom the program is named), was compared to estimates of recharge obtained from a manual analysis of 156 years of streamflow record from 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the eastern United States. Statistical tests showed that there was no significant difference between paired estimates of annual recharge by the two methods. Tests of results produced by the four workers who performed the manual method showed that results can differ significantly between workers. Twenty-two percent of the variation between manual and automated estimates could be attributed to having different workers perform the manual method. The program RORA will produce estimates of recharge equivalent to estimates produced manually, greatly increase the speed od analysis, and reduce the subjectivity inherent in manual analysis.

Annual report on carcinogens (5th)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-01-01

The Fifth Annual Report on Carcinogens, prepared by the National Toxicology Program (NTP), U.S. Public Health Service, is issued by the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), pursuant to Public Law 95-622 of November 9, 1978. This law requires the Secretary to publish an annual report that contains 'a list of all substances (i) which either are known to be carcinogens or which may reasonably be anticipated to be carcinogens and (ii) to which a significant number of persons residing in the United States are exposed;...' Annual Reports should also provide available information on the naturemore » of exposures, the estimated number of persons potentially exposed, and the extent to which the implementation of Federal regulations decreases the risk to public health from exposure to these substances.« less

Uncertainty Estimates of Psychoacoustic Thresholds Obtained from Group Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

2016-01-01

Adaptive psychoacoustic test methods, in which the next signal level depends on the response to the previous signal, are the most efficient for determining psychoacoustic thresholds of individual subjects. In many tests conducted in the NASA psychoacoustic labs, the goal is to determine thresholds representative of the general population. To do this economically, non-adaptive testing methods are used in which three or four subjects are tested at the same time with predetermined signal levels. This approach requires us to identify techniques for assessing the uncertainty in resulting group-average psychoacoustic thresholds. In this presentation we examine the Delta Method of frequentist statistics, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), the Nonparametric Bootstrap, a frequentist method, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Posterior Estimation and a Bayesian approach. Each technique is exercised on a manufactured, theoretical dataset and then on datasets from two psychoacoustics facilities at NASA. The Delta Method is the simplest to implement and accurate for the cases studied. The GLM is found to be the least robust, and the Bootstrap takes the longest to calculate. The Bayesian Posterior Estimate is the most versatile technique examined because it allows the inclusion of prior information.

Estimating secular velocities from GPS data contaminated by postseismic motion at sites with limited pre-earthquake data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. R.; Svarc, J. L.

2016-12-01

Constant secular velocities estimated from Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived position time series are a central input for modeling interseismic deformation in seismically active regions. Both postseismic motion and temporally correlated noise produce long-period signals that are difficult to separate from secular motion and can bias velocity estimates. For GPS sites installed post-earthquake it is especially challenging to uniquely estimate velocities and postseismic signals and to determine when the postseismic transient has decayed sufficiently to enable use of subsequent data for estimating secular rates. Within 60 km of the 2003 M6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquakes in California, 16 continuous GPS sites (group 1) were established prior to mid-2001, and 52 stations (group 2) were installed following the events. We use group 1 data to investigate how early in the post-earthquake time period one may reliably begin using group 2 data to estimate velocities. For each group 1 time series, we obtain eight velocity estimates using observation time windows with successively later start dates (2006 - 2013) and a parameterization that includes constant velocity, annual, and semi-annual terms but no postseismic decay. We compare these to velocities estimated using only pre-San Simeon data to find when the pre- and post-earthquake velocities match within uncertainties. To obtain realistic velocity uncertainties, for each time series we optimize a temporally correlated noise model consisting of white, flicker, random walk, and, in some cases, band-pass filtered noise contributions. Preliminary results suggest velocities can be reliably estimated using data from 2011 to the present. Ongoing work will assess velocity bias as a function of epicentral distance and length of post-earthquake time series as well as explore spatio-temporal filtering of detrended group 1 time series to provide empirical corrections for postseismic motion in group 2 time series.

Estimation of evaporation from open water - A review of selected studies, summary of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data collection and methods, and evaluation of two methods for estimation of evaporation from five reservoirs in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.

2012-01-01

Rayburn Lake) to evaluate their performance and to develop coefficients to minimize bias for the purpose of estimating reservoir evaporation with accuracies similar to estimates of evaporation obtained from pan data. The modified Hamon method estimates of reservoir evaporation were similar to estimates of reservoir evaporation from pan data for daily, monthly, and annual time periods. The modified Hamon method estimates of annual reservoir evaporation were always within 20 percent of annual reservoir evaporation from pan data. Unmodified and modified USWB method estimates of annual reservoir evaporation were within 20 percent of annual reservoir evaporation from pan data for about 91 percent of the years compared. Average daily differences between modified USWB method estimates and estimates from pan data as a percentage of the average amount of daily evaporation from pan data were within 20 percent for 98 percent of the months. Without any modification to the USWB method, average daily differences as a percentage of the average amount of daily evaporation from pan data were within 20 percent for 73 percent of the months. Use of the unmodified USWB method is appealing because it means estimates of average daily reservoir evaporation can be made from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data collected from remote weather stations without the need to develop site-specific coefficients from historical pan data. Site-specific coefficients would need to be developed for the modified version of the Hamon method.

Sixth Annual Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lefferts, E. (Editor)

1981-01-01

Methods of orbital position estimation were reviewed. The problem of accuracy in orbital mechanics is discussed and various techniques in current use are presented along with suggested improvements. Of special interest is the compensation for bias in satelliteborne instruments due to attitude instabilities. Image processing and correctional techniques are reported for geodetic measurements and mapping.

Annual trace-metal load estimates and flow-weighted concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in the Spokane River basin, Idaho and Washington, 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2006-01-01

Streamflow and trace-metal concentration data collected at 10 locations in the Spokane River basin of northern Idaho and eastern Washington during 1999-2004 were used as input for the U.S. Geological Survey software, LOADEST, to estimate annual loads and mean flow-weighted concentrations of total and dissolved cadmium, lead, and zinc. Cadmium composed less than 1 percent of the total metal load at all stations; lead constituted from 6 to 42 percent of the total load at stations upstream from Coeur d'Alene Lake and from 2 to 4 percent at stations downstream of the lake. Zinc composed more than 90 percent of the total metal load at 6 of the 10 stations examined in this study. Trace-metal loads were lowest at the station on Pine Creek below Amy Gulch, where the mean annual total cadmium load for 1999-2004 was 39 kilograms per year (kg/yr), the mean estimated total lead load was about 1,700 kg/yr, and the mean annual total zinc load was 14,000 kg/yr. The trace-metal loads at stations on North Fork Coeur d'Alene River at Enaville, Ninemile Creek, and Canyon Creek also were relatively low. Trace-metal loads were highest at the station at Coeur d'Alene River near Harrison. The mean annual total cadmium load was 3,400 kg/yr, the mean total lead load was 240,000 kg/yr, and the mean total zinc load was 510,000 kg/yr for 1999-2004. Trace-metal loads at the station at South Fork Coeur d'Alene River near Pinehurst and the three stations on the Spokane River downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake also were relatively high. Differences in metal loads, particularly lead, between stations upstream and downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake likely are due to trapping and retention of metals in lakebed sediments. LOADEST software was used to estimate loads for water years 1999-2001 for many of the same sites discussed in this report. Overall, results from this study and those from a previous study are in good agreement. Observed differences between the two studies are attributable to streamflow

Greenhouse gases inventory and carbon balance of two dairy systems obtained from two methane-estimation methods.

PubMed

Cunha, C S; Lopes, N L; Veloso, C M; Jacovine, L A G; Tomich, T R; Pereira, L G R; Marcondes, M I

2016-11-15

The adoption of carbon inventories for dairy farms in tropical countries based on models developed from animals and diets of temperate climates is questionable. Thus, the objectives of this study were to estimate enteric methane (CH4) emissions through the SF6 tracer gas technique and through equations proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 and to calculate the inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from two dairy systems. In addition, the carbon balance of these properties was estimated using enteric CH4 emissions obtained using both methodologies. In trial 1, the CH4 emissions were estimated from seven Holstein dairy cattle categories based on the SF6 tracer gas technique and on IPCC equations. The categories used in the study were prepubertal heifers (n=6); pubertal heifers (n=4); pregnant heifers (n=5); high-producing (n=6); medium-producing (n=5); low-producing (n=4) and dry cows (n=5). Enteric methane emission was higher for the category comprising prepubertal heifers when estimated by the equations proposed by the IPCC Tier 2. However, higher CH4 emissions were estimated by the SF6 technique in the categories including medium- and high-producing cows and dry cows. Pubertal heifers, pregnant heifers, and low-producing cows had equal CH4 emissions as estimated by both methods. In trial 2, two dairy farms were monitored for one year to identify all activities that contributed in any way to GHG emissions. The total emission from Farm 1 was 3.21t CO2e/animal/yr, of which 1.63t corresponded to enteric CH4. Farm 2 emitted 3.18t CO2e/animal/yr, with 1.70t of enteric CH4. IPCC estimations can underestimate CH4 emissions from some categories while overestimate others. However, considering the whole property, these discrepancies are offset and we would submit that the equations suggested by the IPCC properly estimate the total CH4 emission and carbon balance of the properties. Thus, the IPCC equations should be utilized with

Effect of the shape of the exposure-response function on estimated hospital costs in a study on non-elective pneumonia hospitalizations related to particulate matter.

PubMed

Devos, Stefanie; Cox, Bianca; van Lier, Tom; Nawrot, Tim S; Putman, Koen

2016-09-01

We used log-linear and log-log exposure-response (E-R) functions to model the association between PM2.5 exposure and non-elective hospitalizations for pneumonia, and estimated the attributable hospital costs by using the effect estimates obtained from both functions. We used hospital discharge data on 3519 non-elective pneumonia admissions from UZ Brussels between 2007 and 2012 and we combined a case-crossover design with distributed lag models. The annual averted pneumonia hospitalization costs for a reduction in PM2.5 exposure from the mean (21.4μg/m(3)) to the WHO guideline for annual mean PM2.5 (10μg/m(3)) were estimated and extrapolated for Belgium. Non-elective hospitalizations for pneumonia were significantly associated with PM2.5 exposure in both models. Using a log-linear E-R function, the estimated risk reduction for pneumonia hospitalization associated with a decrease in mean PM2.5 exposure to 10μg/m(3) was 4.9%. The corresponding estimate for the log-log model was 10.7%. These estimates translate to an annual pneumonia hospital cost saving in Belgium of €15.5 million and almost €34 million for the log-linear and log-log E-R function, respectively. Although further research is required to assess the shape of the association between PM2.5 exposure and pneumonia hospitalizations, we demonstrated that estimates for health effects and associated costs heavily depend on the assumed E-R function. These results are important for policy making, as supra-linear E-R associations imply that significant health benefits may still be obtained from additional pollution control measures in areas where PM levels have already been reduced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote Sensing based modelling of Annual Surface Mass Balances of Chhota Shigiri Glacier, Western Himalayas, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, Raaj

2017-04-01

The current study aims at modelling glacier mass balances over Chhota Shigiri glacier (32.28o N; 77.58° E) in Himachal Pradesh, India using the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) gradient approach proposed by Rabatel et al. (2005). The model requires yearly ELA, average mass balance and mass balance gradient to estimate annual mass balance of a glacier which can be obtained either through field measurements or remote sensing observations. However, in view of the general scenario of lack of field data for Himalayan glaciers, in this study the model has been applied only using the inputs derived through multi-temporal satellite remote sensing observations thus eliminating the need for any field measurements. Preliminary analysis show that the obtained results are comparable with the observed field mass balance. The results also demonstrate that this approach with remote sensing inputs has potential to be used for glacier mass balance estimations provided good quality multi-temporal remote sensing dataset are available.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a

Estimation of groundwater recharge to chalk and sandstone aquifers using simple soil models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragab, R.; Finch, J.; Harding, R.

1997-03-01

On the assumption that the water draining below the root zone is potentially available for groundwater recharge, two current UK methods for estimating annual groundwater recharge have been compared with a new soil model using data from four sites under permanent grass in the UK: two sites representative of the Chalk aquifer at Bridgest Farm (Hampshire) and Fleam Dyke (Cambridgeshire), and two sites on the Triassic sandstone at Bicton College (Devon) and Bacon Hall (Shropshire). A Four Root Layers Model (FRLM), the Penman-Grindley model and the UK Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System (MORECS) were used. The new soil model was run with potential evaporation as input both from the MORECS and from the Penman-Monteith equation. The models were run for the Chalk sites both with and without a bypass flow of 15% of rainfall. Bypass was not considered for the sandstone sites. The performance of the models was tested against neutron probes measurements of soil moisture deficits. In addition, the annual groundwater recharge estimated from the models was compared with the published values obtained from the 'zero flux plane' method. Generally, the Penman-Grindley model was more successful in predicting the time for soil to return to its field capacity than in predicting the magnitude of the soil moisture deficit. The annual groundwater recharge was predicted with reasonable accuracy. The MORECS relatively tended to overestimate the soil moisture deficits and to delay the time at which the soil returns to its field capacity. The consequences were underestimates of annual groundwater recharge, owing either to the higher values of potential evaporation calculated from the MORECS or tothe high available water capacity values associated with the soils under consideration. The new soil model (FRLM) predicts the soil moisture deficits successfully and hence is reliable in estimating the annual groundwater recharge. The model is capable of doing this with

Satellite derived estimates of forest leaf area index in South-west Western Australia are not tightly coupled to inter-annual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smettem, Keith; Waring, Richard; Callow, Nik; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-04-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. Ecological optimality proposes that the long term average canopy size of undisturbed perennial vegetation is tightly coupled to climate. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study we analysed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of South-west Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, inter-annual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long term decline in areal average underground water storage storage and diminished summer flows, with a trend towards more ephemeral flow regimes.

General aviation activity and avionics survey. 1978. Annual summary report cy 1978

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwenk, J.C.

1980-03-01

This report presents the results and a description of the 1978 General Aviation Activity and Avionics Survey. The survey was conducted during early 1979 by the FAA to obtain information on the activity and avionics of the United States registered general aviation aircraft fleet, the dominant component of civil aviation in the U.S. The survey was based on a statistically selected sample of about 13.3 percent of the general aviation fleet and obtained a response rate of 74 percent. Survey results are based upon responses but are expanded upward to represent the total population. Survey results revealed that during 1978more » an estimated 39.4 million hours of flying time were logged by the 198,778 active general aviation aircraft in the U.S. fleet, yielding a mean annual flight time per aircraft of 197.7 hours. The active aircraft represented 85 percent of the registered general aviation fleet. The report contains breakdowns of these and other statistics by manufacturer/model group, aircraft type, state and region of based aircraft, and primary use. Also included are fuel consumption, lifetime airframe hours, avionics, and engine hours estimates.« less

Annual expenditures for nursing home care: Private and public payer price growth, 1977–2004

PubMed Central

Stewart, Kate A.; Grabowski, David C.; Lakdawalla, Darius N.

2009-01-01

Background Long-term nursing home care is primarily funded by out-of-pocket payments and public Medicaid programs. Few studies have explored price growth in nursing home care, particularly trends in the real cost of a year spent in a nursing home. Objectives To evaluate changes in private and public prices for annual nursing home care from 1977 to 2004, and to compare nursing home price growth to overall price growth and growth in the price of medical care. Research Design We estimated annual private prices for nursing home care between 1977 and 2004 using data from the National Nursing Home Survey. We compared private nursing home price growth to public prices obtained from surveys of state Medicaid offices, and evaluated the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Indexes to compare prices for nursing homes, medical care, and general goods and services over time. Results Annual private pay nursing homes prices grew by 7.5% annually from $8,645 in 1977 to $60,249 in 2004. Medicaid prices grew by 6.7% annually from $9,491 in 1979 to $48,056 in 2004. Annual price growth for private pay nursing home care outpaced medical care and other goods and services (7.5% vs. 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively) between 1977 and 2004. Conclusions The recent rapid growth in nursing home prices is likely to persist, due to an aging population and greater disability among the near-elderly. The result will place increasing financial pressure on Medicaid programs. Better data on nursing prices are critical for policy-makers and researchers. PMID:19194339

Comparison of precipitable water vapor measurements obtained by microwave radiometry and radiosondes at the Southern Great ...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lesht, B.M.; Liljegren, J.C.

1996-12-31

Comparisons between the precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimated by passive microwave radiometers (MWRs) and that obtained by integrating the vertical profile of water vapor density measured by radiosondes (BBSS) have generally shown good agreement. These comparisons, however, have usually been done over rather short time periods and consequently within limited ranges of total PWV and with limited numbers of radiosondes. We have been making regular comparisons between MWR and BBSS estimates of PWV at the Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed (SGP/CART) site since late 1992 as part of an ongoing quality measurement experiment (QME). This suite of comparisonsmore » spans three annual cycles and a relatively wide range of total PWV amounts. Our findings show that although for the most part the agreement is excellent, differences between the two measurements occur. These differences may be related to the MWR retrieval of PWV and to calibration variations between radiosonde batches.« less

Petroleum supply annual, 1990. [Contains Glossary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-05-30

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1990 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections, Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Capacity, each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1990, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Explanatory Notes,more » located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary. 35 tabs.« less

Petroleum supply annual 1992. [Contains glossary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-05-27

The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1992 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains four sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, Refinery Capacity, and Oxygenate Capacity each with final annual data. This second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1992, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them.more » Explanatory Notes, located at the end of this publication, present information describing data collection, sources, estimation methodology, data quality control procedures, modifications to reporting requirements and interpretation of tables. Industry terminology and product definitions are listed alphabetically in the Glossary.« less

Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

PubMed

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-12-01

This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

Estimating Foodborne Gastroenteritis, Australia

PubMed Central

Kirk, Martyn D.; Becker, Niels; Gregory, Joy E.; Unicomb, Leanne; Millard, Geoffrey; Stafford, Russell; Lalor, Karin

2005-01-01

We estimated for Australia the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to foodborne gastroenteritis in a typical year, circa 2000. The total amount of infectious gastroenteritis was measured by using a national telephone survey. The foodborne proportion was estimated from Australian data on each of 16 pathogens. To account for uncertainty, we used simulation techniques to calculate 95% credibility intervals (CrI). The estimate of incidence of gastroenteritis in Australia is 17.2 million (95% confidence interval 14.5–19.9 million) cases per year. We estimate that 32% (95% CrI 24%–40%) are foodborne, which equals 0.3 (95% CrI 0.2–0.4) episodes per person, or 5.4 million (95% CrI 4.0–6.9 million) cases annually in Australia. Norovirus, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter spp., and Salmonella spp. cause the most illnesses. In addition, foodborne gastroenteritis causes ≈15,000 (95% CrI 11,000–18,000) hospitalizations and 80 (95% CrI 40–120) deaths annually. This study highlights global public health concerns about foodborne diseases and the need for standardized methods, including assessment of uncertainty, for international comparison. PMID:16102316

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

Standardized ultrasound templates for diagnosing appendicitis reduce annual imaging costs.

PubMed

Nordin, Andrew B; Sales, Stephen; Nielsen, Jason W; Adler, Brent; Bates, David Gregory; Kenney, Brian

2018-01-01

Ultrasound is preferred over computed tomography (CT) for diagnosing appendicitis in children to avoid undue radiation exposure. We previously reported our experience in instituting a standardized appendicitis ultrasound template, which decreased CT rates by 67.3%. In this analysis, we demonstrate the ongoing cost savings associated with using this template. Retrospective chart review for the time period preceding template implementation (June 2012-September 2012) was combined with prospective review through December 2015 for all patients in the emergency department receiving diagnostic imaging for appendicitis. The type of imaging was recorded, and imaging rates and ultrasound test statistics were calculated. Estimated annual imaging costs based on pretemplate ultrasound and CT utilization rates were compared with post-template annual costs to calculate annual and cumulative savings. In the pretemplate period, ultrasound and CT rates were 80.2% and 44.3%, respectively, resulting in a combined annual cost of $300,527.70. Similar calculations were performed for each succeeding year, accounting for changes in patient volume. Using pretemplate rates, our projected 2015 imaging cost was $371,402.86; however, our ultrasound rate had increased to 98.3%, whereas the CT rate declined to 9.6%, yielding an annual estimated cost of $224,853.00 and a savings of $146,549.86. Since implementation, annual savings have steadily increased for a cumulative cost savings of $336,683.83. Standardizing ultrasound reports for appendicitis not only reduces the use of CT scans and the associated radiation exposure but also decreases annual imaging costs despite increased numbers of imaging studies. Continued cost reduction may be possible by using diagnostic algorithms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of fat reserves on annual apparent survival of blackbirds Turdus merula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.; Aradis, A.; Landucci, G.

2003-01-01

1. Fat reserves are stored energy that may help birds survive periods of harsh winter weather. This hypothesis predicts that annual apparent survival is higher for birds with large fat reserves than for birds with few or no fat reserves in winter. 2. Blackbirds (Turdus merula Linnaeus) were ringed in central Italy from 16 November to 20 February during 1990-2001. Fat scores were recorded for each bird. We used these capture-mark-recapture data for 1703 blackbirds to estimate the effect of large fat reserves on annual apparent survival, while controlling for transients, using computer programs surviv and mark. Probability of birds retaining large fat reserves, or retaining few fat reserves, over 2 successive years was also estimated. 3. Birds with large fat reserves did not have higher estimated annual apparent survival than birds with few fat reserves, inconsistent with our prediction. No effects of age, sex or year were detected on annual apparent survival. Birds with few fat reserves in any given year tended to have few fat reserves the following year. Birds with large fat reserves in any given year were unlikely to have large fat reserves the next year. 4. Large fat reserves may not increase annual survival of blackbirds wintering in central Italy. Winter weather in our study area may be too mild to effect survival. Alternatively, increased predation risk associated with large fat reserves may counteract any benefits of reduced starvation risk.

Estimating Recharge From Soil Water Tension Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sisson, J. B.; Gee, G. W.

2001-12-01

Effectively managing an aquifer requires accurate estimates of the ambient flux as well as the travel time of annual pulses to pass through the vadose zone. When soil water potential and/or water content data are available together with unsaturated hydraulic properties the ambient flux can be estimated using Darcy's Law. A field site, the Buried Waste Test Facility, located at Hanford WA was instrumented with advanced tensiometers to a depth of 20 ft bls and data obtained over a 2 year period. The unsaturated hydraulic properties were available at the closed bottom lysimeter from previous studies. The ambient flux was estimated from the rate of pumpage from the lysimeter to be 55 mm/y. Data from the tensiometers indicated a unit gradient in total water potential at depths greater than 4 m. Thus, the ambient flux was numerically equal to the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. The data also clearly show the passage of wetting fronts beyond 2.3 m and with some imagination to depths beyond 4.3 m. Using the tensiometer data together with previously estimated hydraulic properties resulted in estimates of ambient flux that ranged from about 10 to 120 mm/y. These estimates were found to depend on the length of the period, for which soil water potentials were averaged, and on how the hydraulic conductivity was averaged.

Estimating actual evapotranspiration for forested sites: modifications to the Thornthwaite Model

Treesearch

Randall K. Kolka; Ann T. Wolf

1998-01-01

A previously coded version of the Thornthwaite water balance model was used to estimate annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) for 29 forested sites between 1900 and 1993 in the Upper Great Lakes area. Approximately 8 percent of the data sets calculated AET in error. Errors were detected in months when estimated AET was greater than potential evapotranspiration. Annual...

General aviation activity and avionics survey. Annual report for CY81

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwenk, J.C.; Carter, P.W.

1982-12-01

This report presents the results and a description of the 1981 General Aviation Activity and Avionics Survey. The survey was conducted during 1982 by the FAA to obtain information on the activity and avionics of the United States registered general aviation aircraft fleet, the dominant component of civil aviation in the U.S. The survey was based on a statistically selected sample of about 8.9 percent of the general aviation fleet and obtained a response rate of 61 percent. Survey results are based upon response but are expanded upward to represent the total population. Survey results revealed that during 1981 anmore » estimated 40.7 million hours of flying time were logged by the 213,226 active general aviation aircraft in the U.S. fleet, yielding a mean annual flight time per aircraft of 188.1 hours. The active aircraft represented about 83 percent of the registered general aviation fleet. The report contains breakdowns of these and other statistics by manufacturer/model group, aircraft type, state and region of based aircraft, and primary use. Also included are fuel consumption, lifetime airframe hours, avionics, and engine hours estimates. In addition, tables are included for detailed analysis of the avionics capabilities of GA fleet.« less

A comparison of estimates of basin-scale soil-moisture evapotranspiration and estimates of riparian groundwater evapotranspiration with implications for water budgets in the Verde Valley, Central Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred; Wiele, Stephen M.; Pool, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Population growth in the Verde Valley in Arizona has led to efforts to better understand water availability in the watershed. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a substantial component of the water budget and a critical factor in estimating groundwater recharge in the area. In this study, four estimates of ET are compared and discussed with applications to the Verde Valley. Higher potential ET (PET) rates from the soil-water balance (SWB) recharge model resulted in an average annual ET volume about 17% greater than for ET from the basin characteristics (BCM) recharge model. Annual BCM PET volume, however, was greater by about a factor of 2 or more than SWB actual ET (AET) estimates, which are used in the SWB model to estimate groundwater recharge. ET also was estimated using a method that combines MODIS-EVI remote sensing data and geospatial information and by the MODFLOW-EVT ET package as part of a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the study area. Annual ET volumes were about same for upper-bound MODIS-EVI ET for perennial streams as for the MODFLOW ET estimates, with the small differences between the two methods having minimal impact on annual or longer groundwater budgets for the study area.

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

PubMed

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

Estimated intakes and sources of total and added sugars in the Canadian diet.

PubMed

Brisbois, Tristin D; Marsden, Sandra L; Anderson, G Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L

2014-05-08

National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of "sugars and syrups" with availability of "soft drinks" (proxy for high fructose corn syrup) and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%-13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

PubMed Central

Brisbois, Tristin D.; Marsden, Sandra L.; Anderson, G. Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L.

2014-01-01

National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of “sugars and syrups” with availability of “soft drinks” (proxy for high fructose corn syrup) and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%–13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations. PMID:24815507

Comparison of Species Richness Estimates Obtained Using Nearly Complete Fragments and Simulated Pyrosequencing-Generated Fragments in 16S rRNA Gene-Based Environmental Surveys▿ †

PubMed Central

Youssef, Noha; Sheik, Cody S.; Krumholz, Lee R.; Najar, Fares Z.; Roe, Bruce A.; Elshahed, Mostafa S.

2009-01-01

Pyrosequencing-based 16S rRNA gene surveys are increasingly utilized to study highly diverse bacterial communities, with special emphasis on utilizing the large number of sequences obtained (tens to hundreds of thousands) for species richness estimation. However, it is not yet clear how the number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and, hence, species richness estimates determined using shorter fragments at different taxonomic cutoffs correlates with the number of OTUs assigned using longer, nearly complete 16S rRNA gene fragments. We constructed a 16S rRNA clone library from an undisturbed tallgrass prairie soil (1,132 clones) and used it to compare species richness estimates obtained using eight pyrosequencing candidate fragments (99 to 361 bp in length) and the nearly full-length fragment. Fragments encompassing the V1 and V2 (V1+V2) region and the V6 region (generated using primer pairs 8F-338R and 967F-1046R) overestimated species richness; fragments encompassing the V3, V7, and V7+V8 hypervariable regions (generated using primer pairs 338F-530R, 1046F-1220R, and 1046F-1392R) underestimated species richness; and fragments encompassing the V4, V5+V6, and V6+V7 regions (generated using primer pairs 530F-805R, 805F-1046R, and 967F-1220R) provided estimates comparable to those obtained with the nearly full-length fragment. These patterns were observed regardless of the alignment method utilized or the parameter used to gauge comparative levels of species richness (number of OTUs observed, slope of scatter plots of pairwise distance values for short and nearly complete fragments, and nonparametric and parametric species richness estimates). Similar results were obtained when analyzing three other datasets derived from soil, adult Zebrafish gut, and basaltic formations in the East Pacific Rise. Regression analysis indicated that these observed discrepancies in species richness estimates within various regions could readily be explained by the proportions of

Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.

2014-01-01

This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.

Dual-filter estimation for rotating-panel sample designs

Treesearch

Francis Roesch

2017-01-01

Dual-filter estimators are described and tested for use in the annual estimation for national forest inventories. The dual-filter approach involves the use of a moving widow estimator in the first pass, which is used as input to Theil’s mixed estimator in the second pass. The moving window and dual-filter estimators are tested along with two other estimators in a...

Financial and quality-of-life burden of dysfunctional uterine bleeding among women agreeing to obtain surgical treatment.

PubMed

Frick, Kevin D; Clark, Melissa A; Steinwachs, Donald M; Langenberg, Patricia; Stovall, Dale; Munro, Malcolm G; Dickersin, Kay

2009-01-01

In this study, we sought to 1) describe elements of the financial and quality-of-life burden of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) from the perspective of women who agreed to obtain surgical treatment; 2) explore associations between DUB symptom characteristics and the financial and quality-of-life burden; 3) estimate the annual dollar value of the financial burden; and 4) estimate the most that could be spent on surgery to eliminate DUB symptoms for which medical treatment has been unsuccessful that would result in a $50,000/quality-adjusted life-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. We collected baseline data on DUB symptoms and aspects of the financial and quality-of-life burden for 237 women agreeing to surgery for DUB in a randomized trial comparing hysterectomy with endometrial ablation. Measures included out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditures, excess expenditures on pads or tampons, the value of time missed from paid work and home management activities, and health utility. We used chi2 and t tests to assess the statistical significance of associations between DUB characteristics and the financial and quality-of-life burden. The annual financial burden was estimated. Pelvic pain and cramps were associated with activity limitations and tiredness was associated with a lower health utility. Excess pharmaceutical and pad and tampon costs were $333 per patient per year (95% confidence interval [CI], $263-$403). Excess paid work and home management loss costs were $2,291 per patient per year (95% CI, $1847-$2752). Effective surgical treatment costing $40,000 would be cost-effective compared with unsuccessful medical treatment. The financial and quality-of-life effects of DUB represent a substantial burden.

Estimation of child vaccination coverage at state and national levels in India

PubMed Central

Gupta, Satish; Kumar, Rakesh; Haldar, Pradeep; Sethi, Raman; Bahl, Sunil

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To review the data, for 1999–2013, on state-level child vaccination coverage in India and provide estimates of coverage at state and national levels. Methods We collated data from administrative reports, population-based surveys and other sources and used them to produce annual estimates of vaccination coverage. We investigated bacille Calmette–Guérin vaccine, the first and third doses of vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis, the third dose of oral polio vaccine and the first dose of vaccine against measles. We obtained relevant data covering the period 1999–2013 for each of 16 states and territories and the period 2001–2013 for the state of Jharkhand – which was only created in 2000. We aggregated the resultant state-level estimates, using a population-weighted approach, to give national values. Findings For each of the vaccinations we investigated, about half of the 253 estimates of annual coverage at state level that we produced were based on survey results. The rest were based on interpolation between – or extrapolation from – so-called anchor points or, more rarely, on administrative data. Our national estimates indicated that, for each of the vaccines we investigated, coverage gradually increased between 1999 and 2010 but then levelled off. Conclusion The delivery of routine vaccination services to Indian children appears to have improved between 1999 and 2013. There remains considerable scope to improve the recording and reporting of childhood vaccination coverage in India and regular systematic reviews of the coverage data are recommended. PMID:27843162

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Synthesis of vitamin D and erythemal irradiance obtained with a multiband filter radiometer and annual variation analysis in Río Gallegos, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orte, P. F.; Wolfram, E. A.; Salvador, J.; D'Elia, R.; Paes Leme, N.; Quel, E. J.

2011-01-01

In this paper we examined the annual variability of the erythemal solar radiation (a health risk) and the solar irradiance for synthesis of vitamin D (a health benefit) in Río Gallegos, Argentina. We use ultraviolet radiation measurements made by a multiband filter radiometer GUV-541 and a Brewer spectrophotometer located at CEILAP-RG Station (CITEFA-CONICET) (51° 33' S, 69° 19' W). These measurements are weighted with action spectra published by the CIE (International Commission on Illumination). An action spectrum describes the relative effectiveness of different wavelengths in the generation of a particular biological response. The analyzed data correspond to September 2008-December 2009 period. The methodology used to obtain the erythemal irradiance and synthesis of vitamin D values combines irradiance measurements of a multiband filter radiometer with modeled values (output of radiative transfer model) and measurements of a Brewer spectrophotometer. This procedure increases the instrumental capabilities of this instrument. The synthesis of vitamin D and erythema are affected by UVB solar radiation. Therefore, its effect is strongly dependent of the stratospheric ozone amount, which undergoes large variations in the Río Gallegos city due to ozone hole passage and its influence on these sub-polar latitudes. We observed that could exist cases of sunburn for reasonable exposure in abnormal situations of low total ozone column, resulting in high levels of ultraviolet radiation. Furthermore, the synthesis of vitamin D through exposure to ultraviolet radiation would be lower than the appropriate values to the majority of the year for these latitudes. Therefore it is important to evaluate the annual variation of these quantities realizing seasonal balance between this health risk and this health benefit.

Ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge estimates for calendar year 2000 and average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow by hydrographic area, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopes, Thomas J.; Evetts, David M.

2004-01-01

Nevada's reliance on ground-water resources has increased because of increased development and surface-water resources being fully appropriated. The need to accurately quantify Nevada's water resources and water use is more critical than ever to meet future demands. Estimated ground-water pumpage, artificial and natural recharge, and interbasin flow can be used to help evaluate stresses on aquifer systems. In this report, estimates of ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge during calendar year 2000 were made using data from a variety of sources, such as reported estimates and estimates made using Landsat satellite imagery. Average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow were compiled from published reports. An estimated 1,427,100 acre-feet of ground water was pumped in Nevada during calendar year 2000. This total was calculated by summing six categories of ground-water pumpage, based on water use. Total artificial recharge during 2000 was about 145,970 acre-feet. At least one estimate of natural recharge was available for 209 of the 232 hydrographic areas (HAs). Natural recharge for the 209 HAs ranges from 1,793,420 to 2,583,150 acre-feet. Estimates of interbasin flow were available for 151 HAs. The categories and their percentage of the total ground-water pumpage are irrigation and stock watering (47 percent), mining (26 percent), water systems (14 percent), geothermal production (8 percent), self-supplied domestic (4 percent), and miscellaneous (less than 1 percent). Pumpage in the top 10 HAs accounted for about 49 percent of the total ground-water pumpage. The most ground-water pumpage in an HA was due to mining in Pumpernickel Valley (HA 65), Boulder Flat (HA 61), and Lower Reese River Valley (HA 59). Pumpage by water systems in Las Vegas Valley (HA 212) and Truckee Meadows (HA 87) were the fourth and fifth highest pumpage in 2000, respectively. Irrigation and stock watering pumpage accounted for most ground-water withdrawals in the HAs with the sixth

Estimation of brittleness indices for pay zone determination in a shale-gas reservoir by using elastic properties obtained from micromechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizcano-Hernández, Edgar G.; Nicolás-López, Rubén; Valdiviezo-Mijangos, Oscar C.; Meléndez-Martínez, Jaime

2018-04-01

The brittleness indices (BI) of gas-shales are computed by using their effective mechanical properties obtained from micromechanical self-consistent modeling with the purpose of assisting in the identification of the more-brittle regions in shale-gas reservoirs, i.e., the so-called ‘pay zone’. The obtained BI are plotted in lambda-rho versus mu-rho λ ρ -μ ρ and Young’s modulus versus Poisson’s ratio E-ν ternary diagrams along with the estimated elastic properties from log data of three productive shale-gas wells where the pay zone is already known. A quantitative comparison between the obtained BI and the well log data allows for the delimitation of regions where BI values could indicate the best reservoir target in regions with the highest shale-gas exploitation potential. Therefore, a range of values for elastic properties and brittleness indexes that can be used as a data source to support the well placement procedure is obtained.

DCERP Annual Technical Report III: March 2009-February 2010. Executive Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

groundwater passing though marshes to the estuary. Loading estimates may vary considerably depending on inter-annual hydrologic (storm versus drought ...climatic events (i.e., hurricanes and droughts ); and integrate results with the other DCERP modules. The benefits of the Aquatic/Estuarine Module...inter-annual hydrologic (storm versus drought years) variability. ▪ Several large phytoplankton blooms in mid-estuary to upper estuary locations

Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

2009-01-01

We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstrup, M.; Svensson, A.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Winther, O.; Steig, E.; Axelrod, A.

2012-04-01

The temporal resolution of some ice cores is sufficient to preserve seasonal information in the ice core record. In such cases, annual layer counting represents one of the most accurate methods to produce a chronology for the core. Yet, manual layer counting is a tedious and sometimes ambiguous job. As reliable layer recognition becomes more difficult, a manual approach increasingly relies on human interpretation of the available data. Thus, much may be gained by an automated and therefore objective approach for annual layer identification in ice cores. We have developed a novel method for automated annual layer counting in ice cores, which relies on Bayesian statistics. It uses algorithms from the statistical framework of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), originally developed for use in machine speech recognition. The strength of this layer detection algorithm lies in the way it is able to imitate the manual procedures for annual layer counting, while being based on purely objective criteria for annual layer identification. With this methodology, it is possible to determine the most likely position of multiple layer boundaries in an entire section of ice core data at once. It provides a probabilistic uncertainty estimate of the resulting layer count, hence ensuring a proper treatment of ambiguous layer boundaries in the data. Furthermore multiple data series can be incorporated to be used at once, hence allowing for a full multi-parameter annual layer counting method similar to a manual approach. In this study, the automated layer counting algorithm has been applied to data from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland. The NGRIP ice core has very high temporal resolution with depth, and hence the potential to be dated by annual layer counting far back in time. In previous studies [Andersen et al., 2006; Svensson et al., 2008], manual layer counting has been carried out back to 60 kyr BP. A comparison between the counted annual layers based on the two approaches will be presented

Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-08-01

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.