[Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of São Paulo between 2000 and 2008].

PubMed

Nery, Marcelo Batista; Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; Cardia, Nancy; Vicentin, Diego; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-12-01

To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in São Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. The homicide trends in the city of São Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Combining occurrence and abundance distribution models for the conservation of the Great Bustard.

PubMed

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Sun, Rui; Guo, Yumin

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become important and essential tools in conservation and management. However, SDMs built with count data, referred to as species abundance models (SAMs), are still less commonly used to date, but increasingly receiving attention. Species occurrence and abundance do not frequently display similar patterns, and often they are not even well correlated. Therefore, only using information based on SDMs or SAMs leads to an insufficient or misleading conservation efforts. How to combine information from SDMs and SAMs and how to apply the combined information to achieve unified conservation remains a challenge. In this study, we introduce and propose a priority protection index (PI). The PI combines the prediction results of the occurrence and abundance models. As a case study, we used the best-available presence and count records for an endangered farmland species, the Great Bustard ( Otis tarda dybowskii ), in Bohai Bay, China. We then applied the Random Forest algorithm (Salford Systems Ltd. Implementation) with eleven predictor variables to forecast the spatial occurrence as well as the abundance distribution. The results show that the occurrence model had a decent performance (ROC: 0.77) and the abundance model had a RMSE of 26.54. It is noteworthy that environmental variables influenced bustard occurrence and abundance differently. The area of farmland, and the distance to residential areas were the top important variables influencing bustard occurrence. While the distance to national roads and to expressways were the most important influencing abundance. In addition, the occurrence and abundance models displayed different spatial distribution patterns. The regions with a high index of occurrence were concentrated in the south-central part of the study area; and the abundance distribution showed high populations occurrence in the central and northwestern parts of the study area. However, combining occurrence and abundance indices to produce a priority protection index (PI) to be used for conservation could guide the protection of the areas with high occurrence and high abundance (e.g., in Strategic Conservation Planning). Due to the widespread use of SDMs and the easy subsequent employment of SAMs, these findings have a wide relevance and applicability than just those only based on SDMs or SAMs. We promote and strongly encourage researchers to further test, apply and update the priority protection index (PI) elsewhere to explore the generality of these findings and methods that are now readily available.

Combining occurrence and abundance distribution models for the conservation of the Great Bustard

PubMed Central

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Sun, Rui

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become important and essential tools in conservation and management. However, SDMs built with count data, referred to as species abundance models (SAMs), are still less commonly used to date, but increasingly receiving attention. Species occurrence and abundance do not frequently display similar patterns, and often they are not even well correlated. Therefore, only using information based on SDMs or SAMs leads to an insufficient or misleading conservation efforts. How to combine information from SDMs and SAMs and how to apply the combined information to achieve unified conservation remains a challenge. In this study, we introduce and propose a priority protection index (PI). The PI combines the prediction results of the occurrence and abundance models. As a case study, we used the best-available presence and count records for an endangered farmland species, the Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii), in Bohai Bay, China. We then applied the Random Forest algorithm (Salford Systems Ltd. Implementation) with eleven predictor variables to forecast the spatial occurrence as well as the abundance distribution. The results show that the occurrence model had a decent performance (ROC: 0.77) and the abundance model had a RMSE of 26.54. It is noteworthy that environmental variables influenced bustard occurrence and abundance differently. The area of farmland, and the distance to residential areas were the top important variables influencing bustard occurrence. While the distance to national roads and to expressways were the most important influencing abundance. In addition, the occurrence and abundance models displayed different spatial distribution patterns. The regions with a high index of occurrence were concentrated in the south-central part of the study area; and the abundance distribution showed high populations occurrence in the central and northwestern parts of the study area. However, combining occurrence and abundance indices to produce a priority protection index (PI) to be used for conservation could guide the protection of the areas with high occurrence and high abundance (e.g., in Strategic Conservation Planning). Due to the widespread use of SDMs and the easy subsequent employment of SAMs, these findings have a wide relevance and applicability than just those only based on SDMs or SAMs. We promote and strongly encourage researchers to further test, apply and update the priority protection index (PI) elsewhere to explore the generality of these findings and methods that are now readily available. PMID:29255652

Invasive Species Distribution Modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?

Treesearch

Tomáš Václavík; Ross K. Meentemeyer

2009-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) based on statistical relationships between occurrence data and underlying environmental conditions are increasingly used to predict spatial patterns of biological invasions and prioritize locations for early detection and control of invasion outbreaks. However, invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) face special challenges...

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

2018-06-01

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

PubMed

Walsh, Harvey J; Richardson, David E; Marancik, Katrin E; Hare, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services. PMID:26398900

Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Occurrence and Foraging Activity of Coastal Dolphins in Menai Bay, Zanzibar, Tanzania.

PubMed

Temple, Andrew J; Tregenza, Nick; Amir, Omar A; Jiddawi, Narriman; Berggren, Per

2016-01-01

Understanding temporal patterns in distribution, occurrence and behaviour is vital for the effective conservation of cetaceans. This study used cetacean click detectors (C-PODs) to investigate spatial and temporal variation in occurrence and foraging activity of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose (Tursiops aduncus) and Indian Ocean humpback (Sousa plumbea) dolphins resident in the Menai Bay Conservation Area (MBCA), Zanzibar, Tanzania. Occurrence was measured using detection positive minutes. Inter-click intervals were used to identify terminal buzz vocalisations, allowing for analysis of foraging activity. Data were analysed in relation to spatial (location) and temporal (monsoon season, diel phase and tidal phase) variables. Results showed significantly increased occurrence and foraging activity of dolphins in southern areas and during hours of darkness. Higher occurrence at night was not explained by diel variation in echolocation rate and so were considered representative of occurrence patterns. Both tidal phase and monsoon season influenced occurrence but results varied among sites, with no general patterns found. Foraging activity was greatest during hours of darkness, High water and Flood tidal phases. Comparisons of echolocation data among sites suggested differences in the broadband click spectra of MBCA dolphins, possibly indicative of species differences. These dolphin populations are threatened by unsustainable fisheries bycatch and tourism activities. The spatial and temporal patterns identified in this study have implications for future conservation and management actions with regards to these two threats. Further, the results indicate future potential for using passive acoustics to identify and monitor the occurrence of these two species in areas where they co-exist.

Estimating occupancy probability of moose using hunter survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crum, Nathan J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Cooch, Evan G.; Hurst, Jeremy E.

2017-01-01

Monitoring rare species can be difficult, especially across large spatial extents, making conventional methods of population monitoring costly and logistically challenging. Citizen science has the potential to produce observational data across large areas that can be used to monitor wildlife distributions using occupancy models. We used citizen science (i.e., hunter surveys) to facilitate monitoring of moose (Alces alces) populations, an especially important endeavor because of their recent apparent declines in the northeastern and upper midwestern regions of the United States. To better understand patterns of occurrence of moose in New York, we used data collected through an annual survey of approximately 11,000 hunters between 2012 and 2014 that recorded detection–non-detection data of moose and other species. We estimated patterns of occurrence of moose in relation to land cover characteristics, climate effects, and interspecific interactions using occupancy models to analyze spatially referenced moose observations. Coniferous and deciduous forest with low prevalence of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) had the highest probability of moose occurrence. This study highlights the potential of data collected using citizen science for understanding the spatial distribution of low-density species across large spatial extents and providing key information regarding where and when future research and management activities should be focused.

Statistical study of cold-dense plasma sheet: spatial distribution and semi-annual variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.; Bai, S.; Tian, A.; Nowada, M.; Degeling, A. W.; Zhou, X. Z.; Zong, Q.; Rae, J.; Fu, S.; Zhang, H.; Pu, Z.; Fazakerley, A. N.

2017-12-01

The cold-dense plasma sheet (CDPS), which plays an important role in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during geomagnetic quiet times, is often observed in the magnetosphere, and also be considered as an important particle source for the ring current during geomagnetic storms. However, the long term variation of CDPS occurrences has not been investigated. Using 21 years of Geotail data (1996-2016), we found 677 CDPS events and investigated the long term variation of CDPS occurrence. The spatial distribution of CDPS is also investigated using the in situ observation of Geotail. Since the solar wind entry is easier to occur under stronger northward IMF conditions, we investigated the IMF conditions using 49 years of IMF data (1968-2016) from OMNI data set. We found that both the CDPS occurrence and positive IMF Bz have semi-annual variations, and the variation of positive IMF Bz is consistent with the Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect. Therefore we consider that the semi-annual variation of CDPS occurrence is related to the R-M effect.

IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE STRSSORS ON COMMON LOONS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, USA: A DEMONSTRATION STUDY FOR STRESSOR EFFECTS ACROSS SPACE

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact wildlife population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby contribute to the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. The spatial co-occurrence of organisms, environmenta...

Fine-scale spatial distribution of orchid mycorrhizal fungi in the soil of host-rich grasslands.

PubMed

Voyron, Samuele; Ercole, Enrico; Ghignone, Stefano; Perotto, Silvia; Girlanda, Mariangela

2017-02-01

Mycorrhizal fungi are essential for the survival of orchid seedlings under natural conditions. The distribution of these fungi in soil can constrain the establishment and resulting spatial arrangement of orchids at the local scale, but the actual extent of occurrence and spatial patterns of orchid mycorrhizal (OrM) fungi in soil remain largely unknown. We addressed the fine-scale spatial distribution of OrM fungi in two orchid-rich Mediterranean grasslands by means of high-throughput sequencing of fungal ITS2 amplicons, obtained from soil samples collected either directly beneath or at a distance from adult Anacamptis morio and Ophrys sphegodes plants. Like ectomycorrhizal and arbuscular mycobionts, OrM fungi (tulasnelloid, ceratobasidioid, sebacinoid and pezizoid fungi) exhibited significant horizontal spatial autocorrelation in soil. However, OrM fungal read numbers did not correlate with distance from adult orchid plants, and several of these fungi were extremely sporadic or undetected even in the soil samples containing the orchid roots. Orchid mycorrhizal 'rhizoctonias' are commonly regarded as unspecialized saprotrophs. The sporadic occurrence of mycobionts of grassland orchids in host-rich stands questions the view of these mycorrhizal fungi as capable of sustained growth in soil. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches.

PubMed

Stevens, Kim B; Pfeiffer, Dirk U

2011-09-01

The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Software for analysis of chemical mixtures--composition, occurrence, distribution, and possible toxicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Jonathon C.; Skach, Kenneth A.; Toccalino, Patricia L.

2013-01-01

The composition, occurrence, distribution, and possible toxicity of chemical mixtures in the environment are research concerns of the U.S. Geological Survey and others. The presence of specific chemical mixtures may serve as indicators of natural phenomena or human-caused events. Chemical mixtures may also have ecological, industrial, geochemical, or toxicological effects. Chemical-mixture occurrences vary by analyte composition and concentration. Four related computer programs have been developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey for research of chemical-mixture compositions, occurrences, distributions, and possible toxicities. The compositions and occurrences are identified for the user-supplied data, and therefore the resultant counts are constrained by the user’s choices for the selection of chemicals, reporting limits for the analytical methods, spatial coverage, and time span for the data supplied. The distribution of chemical mixtures may be spatial, temporal, and (or) related to some other variable, such as chemical usage. Possible toxicities optionally are estimated from user-supplied benchmark data. The software for the analysis of chemical mixtures described in this report is designed to work with chemical-analysis data files retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System but can also be used with appropriately formatted data from other sources. Installation and usage of the mixture software are documented. This mixture software was designed to function with minimal changes on a variety of computer-operating systems. To obtain the software described herein and other U.S. Geological Survey software, visit http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Assessing species distribution using Google Street View: a pilot study with the Pine Processionary Moth.

PubMed

Rousselet, Jérôme; Imbert, Charles-Edouard; Dekri, Anissa; Garcia, Jacques; Goussard, Francis; Vincent, Bruno; Denux, Olivier; Robinet, Christelle; Dorkeld, Franck; Roques, Alain; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Mapping species spatial distribution using spatial inference and prediction requires a lot of data. Occurrence data are generally not easily available from the literature and are very time-consuming to collect in the field. For that reason, we designed a survey to explore to which extent large-scale databases such as Google maps and Google Street View could be used to derive valid occurrence data. We worked with the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) Thaumetopoea pityocampa because the larvae of that moth build silk nests that are easily visible. The presence of the species at one location can therefore be inferred from visual records derived from the panoramic views available from Google Street View. We designed a standardized procedure allowing evaluating the presence of the PPM on a sampling grid covering the landscape under study. The outputs were compared to field data. We investigated two landscapes using grids of different extent and mesh size. Data derived from Google Street View were highly similar to field data in the large-scale analysis based on a square grid with a mesh of 16 km (96% of matching records). Using a 2 km mesh size led to a strong divergence between field and Google-derived data (46% of matching records). We conclude that Google database might provide useful occurrence data for mapping the distribution of species which presence can be visually evaluated such as the PPM. However, the accuracy of the output strongly depends on the spatial scales considered and on the sampling grid used. Other factors such as the coverage of Google Street View network with regards to sampling grid size and the spatial distribution of host trees with regards to road network may also be determinant.

Assessing Species Distribution Using Google Street View: A Pilot Study with the Pine Processionary Moth

PubMed Central

Dekri, Anissa; Garcia, Jacques; Goussard, Francis; Vincent, Bruno; Denux, Olivier; Robinet, Christelle; Dorkeld, Franck; Roques, Alain; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Mapping species spatial distribution using spatial inference and prediction requires a lot of data. Occurrence data are generally not easily available from the literature and are very time-consuming to collect in the field. For that reason, we designed a survey to explore to which extent large-scale databases such as Google maps and Google street view could be used to derive valid occurrence data. We worked with the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) Thaumetopoea pityocampa because the larvae of that moth build silk nests that are easily visible. The presence of the species at one location can therefore be inferred from visual records derived from the panoramic views available from Google street view. We designed a standardized procedure allowing evaluating the presence of the PPM on a sampling grid covering the landscape under study. The outputs were compared to field data. We investigated two landscapes using grids of different extent and mesh size. Data derived from Google street view were highly similar to field data in the large-scale analysis based on a square grid with a mesh of 16 km (96% of matching records). Using a 2 km mesh size led to a strong divergence between field and Google-derived data (46% of matching records). We conclude that Google database might provide useful occurrence data for mapping the distribution of species which presence can be visually evaluated such as the PPM. However, the accuracy of the output strongly depends on the spatial scales considered and on the sampling grid used. Other factors such as the coverage of Google street view network with regards to sampling grid size and the spatial distribution of host trees with regards to road network may also be determinant. PMID:24130675

Keyword extraction by nonextensivity measure.

PubMed

Mehri, Ali; Darooneh, Amir H

2011-05-01

The presence of a long-range correlation in the spatial distribution of a relevant word type, in spite of random occurrences of an irrelevant word type, is an important feature of human-written texts. We classify the correlation between the occurrences of words by nonextensive statistical mechanics for the word-ranking process. In particular, we look at the nonextensivity parameter as an alternative metric to measure the spatial correlation in the text, from which the words may be ranked in terms of this measure. Finally, we compare different methods for keyword extraction. © 2011 American Physical Society

Assessing the Spatial Scale Effect of Anthropogenic Factors on Species Distribution

PubMed Central

Mangiacotti, Marco; Scali, Stefano; Sacchi, Roberto; Bassu, Lara; Nulchis, Valeria; Corti, Claudia

2013-01-01

Patch context is a way to describe the effect that the surroundings exert on a landscape patch. Despite anthropogenic context alteration may affect species distributions by reducing the accessibility to suitable patches, species distribution modelling have rarely accounted for its effects explicitly. We propose a general framework to statistically detect the occurrence and the extent of such a factor, by combining presence-only data, spatial distribution models and information-theoretic model selection procedures. After having established the spatial resolution of the analysis on the basis of the species characteristics, a measure of anthropogenic alteration that can be quantified at increasing distance from each patch has to be defined. Then the distribution of the species is modelled under competing hypotheses: H0, assumes that the distribution is uninfluenced by the anthropogenic variables; H1, assumes the effect of alteration at the species scale (resolution); and H2, H3 … Hn add the effect of context alteration at increasing radii. Models are compared using the Akaike Information Criterion to establish the best hypothesis, and consequently the occurrence (if any) and the spatial scale of the anthropogenic effect. As a study case we analysed the distribution data of two insular lizards (one endemic and one naturalised) using four alternative hypotheses: no alteration (H0), alteration at the species scale (H1), alteration at two context scales (H2 and H3). H2 and H3 performed better than H0 and H1, highlighting the importance of context alteration. H2 performed better than H3, setting the spatial scale of the context at 1 km. The two species respond differently to context alteration, the introduced lizard being more tolerant than the endemic one. The proposed approach supplies reliably and interpretable results, uses easily available data on species distribution, and allows the assessing of the spatial scale at which human disturbance produces the heaviest effects. PMID:23825669

Changing Patterns of Human Anthrax in Azerbaijan during the Post-Soviet and Preemptive Livestock Vaccination Eras

PubMed Central

Kracalik, Ian; Abdullayev, Rakif; Asadov, Kliment; Ismayilova, Rita; Baghirova, Mehriban; Ustun, Narmin; Shikhiyev, Mazahir; Talibzade, Aydin; Blackburn, Jason K.

2014-01-01

We assessed spatial and temporal changes in the occurrence of human anthrax in Azerbaijan during 1984 through 2010. Data on livestock outbreaks, vaccination efforts, and human anthrax incidence during Soviet governance, post-Soviet governance, preemptive livestock vaccination were analyzed. To evaluate changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of anthrax, we used a combination of spatial analysis, cluster detection, and weighted least squares segmented regression. Results indicated an annual percent change in incidence of +11.95% from 1984 to 1995 followed by declining rate of −35.24% after the initiation of livestock vaccination in 1996. Our findings also revealed geographic variation in the spatial distribution of reporting; cases were primarily concentrated in the west early in the study period and shifted eastward as time progressed. Over twenty years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the distribution of human anthrax in Azerbaijan has undergone marked changes. Despite decreases in the incidence of human anthrax, continued control measures in livestock are needed to mitigate its occurrence. The shifting patterns of human anthrax highlight the need for an integrated “One Health” approach that takes into account the changing geographic distribution of the disease. PMID:25032701

The Influence of Land Use on the Grassland Fire Occurrence in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Li, Yiping; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-02-23

Grassland, as one of the most important ecosystems on Earth, experiences fires that affect the local ecology, economy and society. Notably, grassland fires occur frequently each year in northeastern China. Fire occurrence is a complex problem with multiple causes, such as natural factors, human activities and land use. This paper investigates the disruptive effects of grassland fire in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. In this study, we relied on thermal anomaly detection from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to identify fire occurrences, and land use data were acquired by Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM/ETM). We discussed the relationship between land use and the spatial distribution of grassland fires. The results showed that the impact of land use on grassland fires was significant. Spatially, approximately 80% of grassland fires were clustered within 10 km of cultivated land, and grassland fires generally occurred in areas of intense human activity. The correlation between the spatial distribution of grassland fires and the land use degree in 2000, 2005 and 2010 was high, with R² values of 0.686, 0.716, 0.633, respectively ( p < 0.01). These results highlight the importance of the relationship between land use and grassland fire occurrence in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This study provides significance for local fire management and prevention.

The Influence of Land Use on the Grassland Fire Occurrence in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

PubMed Central

Li, Yiping; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-01-01

Grassland, as one of the most important ecosystems on Earth, experiences fires that affect the local ecology, economy and society. Notably, grassland fires occur frequently each year in northeastern China. Fire occurrence is a complex problem with multiple causes, such as natural factors, human activities and land use. This paper investigates the disruptive effects of grassland fire in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. In this study, we relied on thermal anomaly detection from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to identify fire occurrences, and land use data were acquired by Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM/ETM). We discussed the relationship between land use and the spatial distribution of grassland fires. The results showed that the impact of land use on grassland fires was significant. Spatially, approximately 80% of grassland fires were clustered within 10 km of cultivated land, and grassland fires generally occurred in areas of intense human activity. The correlation between the spatial distribution of grassland fires and the land use degree in 2000, 2005 and 2010 was high, with R2 values of 0.686, 0.716, 0.633, respectively (p < 0.01). These results highlight the importance of the relationship between land use and grassland fire occurrence in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This study provides significance for local fire management and prevention. PMID:28241476

Bisphenol analogues in surface water and sediment from the shallow Chinese freshwater lakes: Occurrence, distribution, source apportionment, and ecological and human health risk.

PubMed

Yan, Zhengyu; Liu, Yanhua; Yan, Kun; Wu, Shengmin; Han, Zhihua; Guo, Ruixin; Chen, Meihong; Yang, Qiulian; Zhang, Shenghu; Chen, Jianqiu

2017-10-01

Compared to Bisphenol A (BPA), current knowledge on the spatial distribution, potential sources and environmental risk assessment of other bisphenol analogues (BPs) remains limited. The occurrence, distribution and sources of seven BPs were investigated in the surface water and sediment from Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, which are the Chinese shallow freshwater lakes. Because there are many industries and living areas around Taihu Lake, the total concentrations of ∑BPs were much higher than that in Luoma Lake, which is away from the industry-intensive areas. For the two lakes, BPA was still the dominant BPs in both surface water and sediment, followed by BPF and BPS. The spatial distribution and principal component analysis showed that BPs in Luoma Lake was relatively homogeneous and the potential sources were relatively simple than that in Taihu Lake. The spatial distribution of BPs in sediment of Taihu Lake indicated that ∑BPs positively correlated with the TOC content. For both Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, the risk assessment at the sampling sites showed that no high risk in surface water and sediment (RQ t  < 1.0, and EEQ t  < 1.0 ng E 2 /L). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large Occurrence Patterns of New Zealand Deep Earthquakes: Characterization by Use of a Switching Poisson Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaochuan, Lu; Vere-Jones, David

2011-10-01

The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral, depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another. The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group.

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Are We Predicting the Actual or Apparent Distribution of Temperate Marine Fishes?

PubMed Central

Monk, Jacquomo; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Harvey, Euan; Rattray, Alex; Versace, Vincent L.

2012-01-01

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions. PMID:22536325

SAGE II

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2016-02-16

... the spatial distributions of stratospheric aerosols, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, water vapor and cloud occurrence by mapping vertical profiles ... Clouds Clouds in a Clear Sky Clouds in the Balance Stars Clouds Crops Volcanoes and Climate Change ...

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Southern California Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri) invasion.

PubMed

Bayles, Brett R; Thomas, Shyam M; Simmons, Gregory S; Grafton-Cardwell, Elizabeth E; Daugherty, Mathew P

2017-01-01

Biological invasions are governed by spatial processes that tend to be distributed in non-random ways across landscapes. Characterizing the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native insect species is a key aspect of effectively managing their geographic expansion. The Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri), a vector of the bacterium associated with huanglongbing (HLB), poses a serious threat to commercial and residential citrus trees. In 2008, D. citri first began expanding northward from Mexico into parts of Southern California. Using georeferenced D. citri occurrence data from 2008-2014, we sought to better understand the extent of the geographic expansion of this invasive vector species. Our objectives were to: 1) describe the spatial and temporal distribution of D. citri in Southern California, 2) identify the locations of statistically significant D. citri hotspots, and 3) quantify the dynamics of anisotropic spread. We found clear evidence that the spatial and temporal distribution of D. citri in Southern California is non-random. Further, we identified the existence of statistically significant hotspots of D. citri occurrence and described the anisotropic dispersion across the Southern California landscape. For example, the dominant hotspot surrounding Los Angeles showed rapid and strongly asymmetric spread to the south and east. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of quantitative invasive insect risk assessment with the application of a spatial epidemiology framework.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Southern California Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri) invasion

PubMed Central

Thomas, Shyam M.; Simmons, Gregory S.; Grafton-Cardwell, Elizabeth E.; Daugherty, Mathew P.

2017-01-01

Biological invasions are governed by spatial processes that tend to be distributed in non-random ways across landscapes. Characterizing the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native insect species is a key aspect of effectively managing their geographic expansion. The Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri), a vector of the bacterium associated with huanglongbing (HLB), poses a serious threat to commercial and residential citrus trees. In 2008, D. citri first began expanding northward from Mexico into parts of Southern California. Using georeferenced D. citri occurrence data from 2008–2014, we sought to better understand the extent of the geographic expansion of this invasive vector species. Our objectives were to: 1) describe the spatial and temporal distribution of D. citri in Southern California, 2) identify the locations of statistically significant D. citri hotspots, and 3) quantify the dynamics of anisotropic spread. We found clear evidence that the spatial and temporal distribution of D. citri in Southern California is non-random. Further, we identified the existence of statistically significant hotspots of D. citri occurrence and described the anisotropic dispersion across the Southern California landscape. For example, the dominant hotspot surrounding Los Angeles showed rapid and strongly asymmetric spread to the south and east. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of quantitative invasive insect risk assessment with the application of a spatial epidemiology framework. PMID:28278188

Methodology to study the three-dimensional spatial distribution of prostate cancer and their dependence on clinical parameters

PubMed Central

Rojas, Kristians Diaz; Montero, Maria L.; Yao, Jorge; Messing, Edward; Fazili, Anees; Joseph, Jean; Ou, Yangming; Rubens, Deborah J.; Parker, Kevin J.; Davatzikos, Christos; Castaneda, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Abstract. A methodology to study the relationship between clinical variables [e.g., prostate specific antigen (PSA) or Gleason score] and cancer spatial distribution is described. Three-dimensional (3-D) models of 216 glands are reconstructed from digital images of whole mount histopathological slices. The models are deformed into one prostate model selected as an atlas using a combination of rigid, affine, and B-spline deformable registration techniques. Spatial cancer distribution is assessed by counting the number of tumor occurrences among all glands in a given position of the 3-D registered atlas. Finally, a difference between proportions is used to compare different spatial distributions. As a proof of concept, we compare spatial distributions from patients with PSA greater and less than 5  ng/ml and from patients older and younger than 60 years. Results suggest that prostate cancer has a significant difference in the right zone of the prostate between populations with PSA greater and less than 5  ng/ml. Age does not have any impact in the spatial distribution of the disease. The proposed methodology can help to comprehend prostate cancer by understanding its spatial distribution and how it changes according to clinical parameters. Finally, this methodology can be easily adapted to other organs and pathologies. PMID:26236756

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Neural Activity from Pairwise Correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marre, O.; El Boustani, S.; Fregnac, Y.

We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatiotemporal patterns significantly better than Ising models only based on spatial correlations. This increase of predictability was also observed on experimental data recorded in parietal cortex during slow-wave sleep. This approach can also be used to generate surrogatesmore » that reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of a given data set.« less

Small-Scale Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using Probability Kriging.

PubMed

Wang, S Q; Zhang, H Y; Li, Z L

2016-10-01

Understanding spatio-temporal distribution of pest in orchards can provide important information that could be used to design monitoring schemes and establish better means for pest control. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) was assessed, and activity trends were evaluated by using probability kriging. Adults of B. minax were captured in two successive occurrences in a small-scale citrus orchard by using food bait traps, which were placed both inside and outside the orchard. The weekly spatial distribution of B. minax within the orchard and adjacent woods was examined using semivariogram parameters. The edge concentration was discovered during the most weeks in adult occurrence, and the population of the adults aggregated with high probability within a less-than-100-m-wide band on both of the sides of the orchard and the woods. The sequential probability kriged maps showed that the adults were estimated in the marginal zone with higher probability, especially in the early and peak stages. The feeding, ovipositing, and mating behaviors of B. minax are possible explanations for these spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, spatial arrangement and distance to the forest edge of traps or spraying spot should be considered to enhance pest control on B. minax in small-scale orchards.

Spatial and seasonal dynamic of abundance and distribution of guanaco and livestock: insights from using density surface and null models.

PubMed

Schroeder, Natalia M; Matteucci, Silvia D; Moreno, Pablo G; Gregorio, Pablo; Ovejero, Ramiro; Taraborelli, Paula; Carmanchahi, Pablo D

2014-01-01

Monitoring species abundance and distribution is a prerequisite when assessing species status and population viability, a difficult task to achieve for large herbivores at ecologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns can be used to infer mechanisms of community organization (such as biotic interactions), although it has been traditionally applied to binary presence/absence data. Here, we combine density surface and null models of abundance data as a novel approach to analyze the spatial and seasonal dynamics of abundance and distribution of guanacos (Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores in northern Patagonia, in order to visually and analytically compare the dispersion and co-occurrence pattern of ungulates. We found a marked seasonal pattern in abundance and spatial distribution of L. guanicoe. The guanaco population reached its maximum annual size and spatial dispersion in spring-summer, decreasing up to 6.5 times in size and occupying few sites of the study area in fall-winter. These results are evidence of the seasonal migration process of guanaco populations, an increasingly rare event for terrestrial mammals worldwide. The maximum number of guanacos estimated for spring (25,951) is higher than the total population size (10,000) 20 years ago, probably due to both counting methodology and population growth. Livestock were mostly distributed near human settlements, as expected by the sedentary management practiced by local people. Herbivore distribution was non-random; i.e., guanaco and livestock abundances co-varied negatively in all seasons, more than expected by chance. Segregation degree of guanaco and small-livestock (goats and sheep) was comparatively stronger than that of guanaco and large-livestock, suggesting a competition mechanism between ecologically similar herbivores, although various environmental factors could also contribute to habitat segregation. The new and compelling combination of methods used here is highly useful for researchers who conduct counts of animals to simultaneously estimate population sizes, distributions, assess temporal trends and characterize multi-species spatial interactions.

Habitat modeling for cetacean management: Spatial distribution in the southern Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennino, Maria Grazia; Mérigot, Bastien; Fonseca, Vinícius Prado; Monni, Virginia; Rotta, Andrea

2017-07-01

Effective management and conservation of wild populations requires knowledge of their habitats, especially by mean of quantitative analyses of their spatial distributions. The Pelagos Sanctuary is a dedicated marine protected area for Mediterranean marine mammals covering an area of 90,000 km2 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea between Italy, France and the Principate of Monaco. In the south of the Sanctuary, i.e. along the Sardinian coast, a range of diverse human activities (cities, industry, fishery, tourism) exerts several current ad potential threats to cetacean populations. In addition, marine mammals are recognized by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive as essential components of sustainable ecosystems. Yet, knowledge on the spatial distribution and ecology of cetaceans in this area is quite scarce. Here we modeled occurrence of the three most abundant species known in the Sanctuary, i.e. the striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and the fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), using sighting data from scientific surveys collected from 2012 to 2014 during summer time. Bayesian site-occupancy models were used to model their spatial distribution in relation to habitat taking into account oceanographic (sea surface temperature, primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll-a concentration) and topographic (depth, slope, distance of the land) variables. Cetaceans responded differently to the habitat features, with higher occurrence predicted in the more productive areas on submarine canyons. These results provide ecological information useful to enhance management plans and establish baseline for future population trend studies.

Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menke, S.B.; Holway, D.A.; Fisher, R.N.; Jetz, W.

2009-01-01

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) or, more specifically, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful and rapidly proliferating tool in ecology and global change biology. ENMs attempt to capture associations between a species and its environment and are often used to draw biological inferences, to predict potential occurrences in unoccupied regions and to forecast future distributions under environmental change. The accuracy of ENMs, however, hinges critically on the quality of occurrence data. ENMs often use haphazardly collected data rather than data collected across the full spectrum of existing environmental conditions. Moreover, it remains unclear how processes affecting ENM predictions operate at different spatial scales. The scale (i.e. grain size) of analysis may be dictated more by the sampling regime than by biologically meaningful processes. The aim of our study is to jointly quantify how issues relating to region and scale affect ENM predictions using an economically important and ecologically damaging invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Location: California, USA. Methods: We analysed the relationship between sampling sufficiency, regional differences in environmental parameter space and cell size of analysis and resampling environmental layers using two independently collected sets of presence/absence data. Differences in variable importance were determined using model averaging and logistic regression. Model accuracy was measured with area under the curve (AUC) and Cohen's kappa. Results: We first demonstrate that insufficient sampling of environmental parameter space can cause large errors in predicted distributions and biological interpretation. Models performed best when they were parametrized with data that sufficiently sampled environmental parameter space. Second, we show that altering the spatial grain of analysis changes the relative importance of different environmental variables. These changes apparently result from how environmental constraints and the sampling distributions of environmental variables change with spatial grain. Conclusions: These findings have clear relevance for biological inference. Taken together, our results illustrate potentially general limitations for ENMs, especially when such models are used to predict species occurrences in novel environments. We offer basic methodological and conceptual guidelines for appropriate sampling and scale matching. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing.

Spatial and temporal variability of lightings over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, P. T.; Matsangouras, J. T.

2010-09-01

Lightings are the most powerful and spectacular natural phenomena in the lower atmosphere, being a major cause of storm related deaths. Cloud-to-ground lightning can kill and injure people by direct or indirect means. Lightning affects the many electrochemical systems in the body causing nerve damage, memory loss, personality change, and emotional problems. Besides, among the various nitrogen oxides sources, the contribution from lightning likely represents the largest uncertainty. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of recorded lightings over Greece during the period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2009, were analyzed. The data for retrieving the location and time-of-occurrence of lightning were acquired from Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) archive dataset. An operational lighting detector network was established in 2007 by HNMS consisted of eight time-of-arrival sensors (TOA), spatially distributed across Greek territory. The spatial variability of lightings revealed their incidence within specific geographical sub-regions while the temporal variability concerning the seasonal, monthly and daily distributions resulted in better understanding of the time of lightings’ occurrence. All the analyses were carried out with respect to cloud to cloud, cloud to ground and ground to cloud lightings, within the examined time period.

Quantitative analysis of ultrasonic images of fibrotic liver using co-occurrence matrix based on multi-Rayleigh model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isono, Hiroshi; Hirata, Shinnosuke; Hachiya, Hiroyuki

2015-07-01

In medical ultrasonic images of liver disease, a texture with a speckle pattern indicates a microscopic structure such as nodules surrounded by fibrous tissues in hepatitis or cirrhosis. We have been applying texture analysis based on a co-occurrence matrix to ultrasonic images of fibrotic liver for quantitative tissue characterization. A co-occurrence matrix consists of the probability distribution of brightness of pixel pairs specified with spatial parameters and gives new information on liver disease. Ultrasonic images of different types of fibrotic liver were simulated and the texture-feature contrast was calculated to quantify the co-occurrence matrices generated from the images. The results show that the contrast converges with a value that can be theoretically estimated using a multi-Rayleigh model of echo signal amplitude distribution. We also found that the contrast value increases as liver fibrosis progresses and fluctuates depending on the size of fibrotic structure.

Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of forest fires in northern Mexico

Treesearch

Gustavo Pérez-Verdin; M. A. Márquez-Linares; A. Cortes-Ortiz; M. Salmerón-Macias

2013-01-01

Using the 2000-2011 CONAFOR databases, a spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of forest fires in Durango, one of the most affected States in Mexico, was conducted. The Moran's index was used to determine a spatial distribution pattern; also, an analysis of seasonal and temporal autocorrelation of the data collected was completed. The geographically weighted...

Spatial segregation of spawning habitat limits hybridization between sympatric native Steelhead and Coastal Cutthroat Trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buehrens, T.W.; Glasgow, J.; Ostberg, Carl O.; Quinn, T.P.

2013-01-01

Native Coastal Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii and Coastal Steelhead O. mykiss irideus hybridize naturally in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest yet maintain species integrity. Partial reproductive isolation due to differences in spawning habitat may limit hybridization between these species, but this process is poorly understood. We used a riverscape approach to determine the spatial distribution of spawning habitats used by native Coastal Cutthroat Trout and Steelhead as evidenced by the distribution of recently emerged fry. Molecular genetic markers were used to classify individuals as pure species or hybrids, and individuals were assigned to age-classes based on length. Fish and physical habitat data were collected in a spatially continuous framework to assess the relationship between habitat and watershed features and the spatial distribution of parental species and hybrids. Sampling occurred in 35 reaches from tidewaters to headwaters in a small (20 km2) coastal watershed in Washington State. Cutthroat, Steelhead, and hybrid trout accounted for 35%, 42%, and 23% of the fish collected, respectively. Strong segregation of spawning areas between Coastal Cutthroat Trout and Steelhead was evidenced by the distribution of age-0 trout. Cutthroat Trout were located farther upstream and in smaller tributaries than Steelhead were. The best predictor of species occurrence at a site was the drainage area of the watershed that contributed to the site. This area was positively correlated with the occurrence of age-0 Steelhead and negatively with the presence of Cutthroat Trout, whereas hybrids were found in areas occupied by both parental species. A similar pattern was observed in older juveniles of both species but overlap was greater, suggesting substantial dispersal of trout after emergence. Our results offer support for spatial reproductive segregation as a factor limiting hybridization between Steelhead and Coastal Cutthroat Trout.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using remote sensing and machine learning for the spatial modelling of a bluetongue virus vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van doninck, J.; Peters, J.; De Baets, B.; Ducheyne, E.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2012-04-01

Bluetongue is a viral vector-borne disease transmitted between hosts, mostly cattle and small ruminants, by some species of Culicoides midges. Within the Mediterranean basin, C. imicola is the main vector of the bluetongue virus. The spatial distribution of this species is limited by a number of environmental factors, including temperature, soil properties and land cover. The identification of zones at risk of bluetongue outbreaks thus requires detailed information on these environmental factors, as well as appropriate epidemiological modelling techniques. We here give an overview of the environmental factors assumed to be constraining the spatial distribution of C. imicola, as identified in different studies. Subsequently, remote sensing products that can be used as proxies for these environmental constraints are presented. Remote sensing data are then used together with species occurrence data from the Spanish Bluetongue National Surveillance Programme to calibrate a supervised learning model, based on Random Forests, to model the probability of occurrence of the C. imicola midge. The model will then be applied for a pixel-based prediction over the Iberian peninsula using remote sensing products for habitat characterization.

Spatial data analysis for exploration of regional scale geothermal resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghaddam, Majid Kiavarz; Noorollahi, Younes; Samadzadegan, Farhad; Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Itoi, Ryuichi

2013-10-01

Defining a comprehensive conceptual model of the resources sought is one of the most important steps in geothermal potential mapping. In this study, Fry analysis as a spatial distribution method and 5% well existence, distance distribution, weights of evidence (WofE), and evidential belief function (EBFs) methods as spatial association methods were applied comparatively to known geothermal occurrences, and to publicly-available regional-scale geoscience data in Akita and Iwate provinces within the Tohoku volcanic arc, in northern Japan. Fry analysis and rose diagrams revealed similar directional patterns of geothermal wells and volcanoes, NNW-, NNE-, NE-trending faults, hotsprings and fumaroles. Among the spatial association methods, WofE defined a conceptual model correspondent with the real world situations, approved with the aid of expert opinion. The results of the spatial association analyses quantitatively indicated that the known geothermal occurrences are strongly spatially-associated with geological features such as volcanoes, craters, NNW-, NNE-, NE-direction faults and geochemical features such as hotsprings, hydrothermal alteration zones and fumaroles. Geophysical data contains temperature gradients over 100 °C/km and heat flow over 100 mW/m2. In general, geochemical and geophysical data were better evidence layers than geological data for exploring geothermal resources. The spatial analyses of the case study area suggested that quantitative knowledge from hydrothermal geothermal resources was significantly useful for further exploration and for geothermal potential mapping in the case study region. The results can also be extended to the regions with nearly similar characteristics.

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Thematic and Spatial Resolutions Affect Model-Based Predictions of Tree Species Distribution

PubMed Central

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution. PMID:23861828

GIS-supported investigation of human EHEC and cattle VTEC O157 infections in Sweden: geographical distribution, spatial variation and possible risk factors.

PubMed Central

Kistemann, Thomas; Zimmer, Sonja; Vågsholm, Ivar; Andersson, Yvonne

2004-01-01

This article describes the spatial and temporal distribution of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli among humans (EHEC) and cattle (VTEC) in Sweden, in order to evaluate relationships between the incidence of EHEC in humans, prevalence of VTEC O157 in livestock and agricultural structure by an ecological study. The spatial patterns of the distribution of human infections were described and compared with spatial patterns of occurrence in cattle, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The findings implicate a concentration of human infection and cattle prevalence in the southwest of Sweden. The use of probability mapping confirmed unusual patterns of infection rates. The comparison of human and cattle infection indicated a spatial and statistical association. The correlation between variables of the agricultural structure and human EHEC incidence was high, indicating a significant statistical association of cattle and farm density with human infection. The explained variation of a multiple linear regression model was 0.56. PMID:15188718

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

PubMed

Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes; Lobo, Murillo

2017-01-01

Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence

PubMed Central

Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes

2017-01-01

Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen’s optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen’s density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans. PMID:29107985

Statistical Analysis of TEC Anomalies Prior to M6.0+ Earthquakes During 2003-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Fuying; Su, Fanfan; Lin, Jian

2018-04-01

There are many studies on the anomalous variations of the ionospheric TEC prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not the morphological characteristics of the TEC anomalies in the daytime and at night are different is rarely studied. In the present paper, based on the total electron content (TEC) data from the global ionosphere map (GIM), we carry out a statistical survey on the spatial-temporal distribution of TEC anomalies before 1339 global M6.0+ earthquakes during 2003-2014. After excluding the interference of geomagnetic disturbance, the temporal and spatial distributions of ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to the earthquakes in the daytime and at night are investigated and compared. Except that the nighttime occurrence rates of the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies (PEIAs) are higher than those in the daytime, our analysis has not found any statistically significant difference in the spatial-temporal distribution of PEIAs in the daytime and at night. Moreover, the occurrence rates of pre-earthquake ionospheric TEC both positive anomalies and negative anomalies at night tend to increase slightly with the earthquake magnitude. Thus, we suggest that monitoring the ionospheric TEC changes at night might be a clue to reveal the relation between ionospheric disturbances and seismic activities.

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R.

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such asmore » a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.« less

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Singh, T.; Kiss, T. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Erdélyi, R.

2017-03-01

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

Statistical study of ULF wave occurrence in the dayside magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, M.; Mcpherron, R. L.; Russell, C. T.

1994-01-01

Ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves are observed almost everywhere in the dayside magnetosphere. The mechanism by which these waves are generated and transformed in the dayside magnetosphere is still not understood. Here we report a statistical study of these waves based on magnetic field data from the International Sun-Earth Explorer 1 (ISEE 1) spacecraft. Data from the first traversal of the spacecraft through the entire dayside magnetosphere have been examined to determine the spatial distribution of wave occurrence. Successive 20-min segments of data were transformed to a field-aligned coordinate system. The parallel component was detrended and all three components of the field spectrally analyzed. Wave occurrence was defined by the presence of significant peaks in the power spectra. Wave events were categorized by three wave frequency bands: Pc 3 with T approximately 10-45 s; Pc 4 with T approximately 45-150 s; the short-period part of the Pc 5 wave band with T approximately 150-324 s. Properties of the spectral peaks were then entered into a data base. The data base was next sorted to determine the spatial occurrence pattern for the waves. Our results show that Pc 3 waves most frequently occur just outside synchronous orbit and are approximately centered on local noon. Pc 4 waves have a similar distribution with its peak further out. Pc 5 waves have high occurrence rate at the two flanks of the magnetosphere. Peaks in spectra obtained near the magnetopause are less clearly defined than those deeper in the magnetosphere.

A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1990-02-01

A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Post-seismic Deformation of the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) Earthquake: Implications for Future Earthquake Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Simons, M.; Minson, S. E.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Hetland, E. A.

2011-12-01

We aim to quantify the spatial distribution of after-slip following the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) earthquake and its implications for the occurrence of a future Great Earthquake, particularly in the Ibaraki region of Japan. We use a Bayesian approach (CATMIP algorithm), constrained by on-land Geonet GPS time series, to infer models of after-slip to date in the Japan megathrust. Unlike traditional inverse methods, in which a single optimum model is found, the Bayesian approach allows a complete characterization of the model parameter space by searching a-posteriori estimates of the range of plausible models. We use the Kullback-Liebler information divergence as a metric of the information gain on each subsurface slip patch, to quantify the extent to which land-based geodetic observations can constrain the upper parts of the megathrust, where the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake took place. We aim to understand the relationships of spatial distribution of fault slip behavior in the different stages of the seismic cycle. We compare our post-seismic slip distributions to inter- and co-seismic slip distributions obtained through a Bayesian methodology as well as through traditional (optimization) inverse estimates in the published literature. We discuss implications of these analyses for the occurrence of a large earthquake in the Japan megathrust regions adjacent to the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Physical Processes Controlling the Spatial Distributions of Relative Humidity in the Tropical Tropopause Layer Over the Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Ueyama, Rei; Pfister, Leonhard; Bui, Thaopaul; Diskin, Glenn S.; Digangi, Joshua P.; Hintsa, Eric; Gao, Ru-Shan;

Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data.

PubMed

Gomes, Vitor H F; IJff, Stéphanie D; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; Castilho, Carolina V; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E; Phillips, Oliver L; Wittmann, Florian; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Bánki, Olaf S; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Pitman, Nigel C A; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Coronado, Euridice N Honorio; Feldpausch, Ted R; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O; Laurance, Susan G W; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R C; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F; Aymard C, Gerardo A; Mogollón, Hugo F; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Feeley, Kenneth; Arroyo, Luzmila; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti; Gribel, Rogerio; Villa, Boris; Licona, Juan Carlos; Fine, Paul V A; Cerón, Carlos; Baraloto, Chris; Jimenez, Eliana M; Stropp, Juliana; Engel, Julien; Silveira, Marcos; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Maas, Paul; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Henkel, Terry W; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; Baker, Tim R; Fuentes, Alfredo; Peres, Carlos A; Chave, Jerome; Pena, Jose Luis Marcelo; Dexter, Kyle G; Silman, Miles R; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Pennington, Toby; Di Fiore, Anthony; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Phillips, Juan Fernando; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; von Hildebrand, Patricio; van Andel, Tinde R; Ruschel, Ademir R; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Hoffman, Bruce; Vela, César I A; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; Zent, Egleé L; Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo; Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; Silva, Natalino; Gómez, Ricardo Zárate; Zent, Stanford; Gonzales, Therany; Vos, Vincent A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Oliveira, Alexandre A; Cano, Angela; Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss; Vriesendorp, Corine; Correa, Diego Felipe; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; van der Heijden, Geertje; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Young, Kenneth R; Rocha, Maira; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; Tirado, Milton; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Mendoza, Casimiro; Ferreira, Cid; Baider, Cláudia; Villarroel, Daniel; Balslev, Henrik; Mesones, Italo; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Casas, Luisa Fernanda; Reategui, Manuel Augusto Ahuite; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Zagt, Roderick; Cárdenas, Sasha; Farfan-Rios, William; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Pauletto, Daniela; Sandoval, Elvis H Valderrama; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Alexiades, Miguel N; Pansini, Susamar; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Milliken, William; Ricardo, Joana; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Pos, Edwin; Ter Steege, Hans

2018-01-17

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

Fine-Scale Spatial Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Waterborne Protozoa in a Drinking Water Reservoir.

PubMed

Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Ogorzaly, Leslie; Penny, Christian; Cauchie, Henry-Michel

2015-09-23

The occurrence of faecal pathogens in drinking water resources constitutes a threat to the supply of safe drinking water, even in industrialized nations. To efficiently assess and monitor the risk posed by these pathogens, sampling deserves careful design, based on preliminary knowledge on their distribution dynamics in water. For the protozoan pathogens Cryptosporidium and Giardia, only little is known about their spatial distribution within drinking water supplies, especially at fine scale. Two-dimensional distribution maps were generated by sampling cross-sections at meter resolution in two different zones of a drinking water reservoir. Samples were analysed for protozoan pathogens as well as for E. coli, turbidity and physico-chemical parameters. Parasites displayed heterogeneous distribution patterns, as reflected by significant (oo)cyst density gradients along reservoir depth. Spatial correlations between parasites and E. coli were observed near the reservoir inlet but were absent in the downstream lacustrine zone. Measurements of surface and subsurface flow velocities suggest a role of local hydrodynamics on these spatial patterns. This fine-scale spatial study emphasizes the importance of sampling design (site, depth and position on the reservoir) for the acquisition of representative parasite data and for optimization of microbial risk assessment and monitoring. Such spatial information should prove useful to the modelling of pathogen transport dynamics in drinking water supplies.

Mineral potential modelling of gold and silver mineralization in the Nevada Great Basin - a GIS-based analysis using weights of evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mihalasky, Mark J.

2001-01-01

The distribution of 2,690 gold-silver-bearing occurrences in the Nevada Great Basin was examined in terms of spatial association with various geological phenomena. Analysis of these relationships, using GIS and weights of evidence modelling techniques, has predicted areas of high mineral potential where little or no mining activity exists. Mineral potential maps for sedimentary (?disseminated?) and volcanic (?epithermal?) rock-hosted gold-silver mineralization revealed two distinct patterns that highlight two sets of crustal-scale geologic features that likely control the regional distribution of these deposit types. The weights of evidence method is a probability-based technique for mapping mineral potential using the spatial distribution of known mineral occurrences. Mineral potential maps predicting the distribution of gold-silver-bearing occurrences were generated from structural, geochemical, geomagnetic, gravimetric, lithologic, and lithotectonic-related deposit-indicator factors. The maps successfully predicted nearly 70% of the total number of known occurrences, including ~83% of sedimentary and ~60% of volcanic rock-hosted types. Sedimentary and volcanic rockhosted mineral potential maps showed high spatial correlation (an area cross-tabulation agreement of 85% and 73%, respectively) with expert-delineated mineral permissive tracts. In blind tests, the sedimentary and volcanic rock-hosted mineral potential maps predicted 10 out of 12 and 5 out of 5 occurrences, respectively. The key mineral predictor factors, in order of importance, were determined to be: geology (including lithology, structure, and lithotectonic terrane), geochemistry (indication of alteration), and geophysics. Areas of elevated sedimentary rock-hosted mineral potential are generally confined to central, north-central, and north-eastern Nevada. These areas form a conspicuous ?V?-shape pattern that is coincident with the Battle Mountain-Eureka (Cortez) and Carlin mineral trends and a segment of the Roberts Mountain thrust front, which bridges the southern ends of the trends. This pattern appears to delineate two well-defined, sub-parallel, northwest?southeast-trending crustal-scale structural zones. These features, here termed the ?Carlin? and ?Cortez? structural zones, are believed to control the regional-scale distribution of the sedimentary rock-hosted occurrences. Mineralizing processes were focused along these structural zones and significant ore deposits exist where they intersect other tectonic zones, favorable host rock-types, and (or) where appropriate physio-chemical conditions were present. The origin and age of the Carlin and Cortez structural zones are not well constrained, however, they are considered to be transcurrent features representing a long-lived, deep-crustal or mantle-rooted zone of weakness. Areas of elevated volcanic rock-hosted mineral potential are principally distributed along two broad and diffuse belts that trend (1) northwest-southeast across southwestern Nevada, parallel to the Sierra Nevada, and (2) northeast-southwest across northern Nevada, extending diagonally from the Sierra Nevada to southern Idaho. The first belt corresponds to the Walker Lane shear zone, a wide region of complex strike-slip faulting. The second, here termed the ?Humboldt shear(?) zone?, may represent a structural zone of transcurrent movement. Together, the Walker Lane and Humboldt shear(?) zones are believed to control the regional-scale distribution of volcanic rock-hosted occurrences. Volcanic rock-hosted mineralization was closely tied to the southward and westward migration of Tertiary magmatism across the region (which may have been mantle plume-driven). Both magmatic and mineralizing processes were localized and concentrated along these structural zones. The Humboldt shear(?) zone may have also affected the distribution of sedimentary rock-hosted mineralization along the Battle Mountain?Eureka (C

Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

PubMed

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Polce, Chiara; van Loon, E Emiel; Raes, Niels; Reemer, Menno; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2013-01-01

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).

Occurrence of Emerging Micropollutants in Water Systems in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West Provinces, South Africa.

PubMed

Wanda, Elijah M M; Nyoni, Hlengilizwe; Mamba, Bhekie B; Msagati, Titus A M

2017-01-13

The ubiquitous occurrence of emerging micropollutants (EMPs) in water is an issue of growing environmental-health concern worldwide. However, there remains a paucity of data regarding their levels and occurrence in water. This study determined the occurrence of EMPs namely: carbamazepine (CBZ), galaxolide (HHCB), caffeine (CAF), tonalide (AHTN), 4-nonylphenol (NP), and bisphenol A (BPA) in water from Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces, South Africa using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GCxGC-HRTOFMS). Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA were performed to determine temporal variations in occurrence of the EMPs. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Surfer Golden Graphics software for surface mapping were used to determine spatial variations in levels and occurrence of the EMPs. The mean levels ranged from 11.22 ± 18.8 ng/L for CAF to 158.49 ± 662 ng/L for HHCB. There was no evidence of statistically significant temporal variations in occurrence of EMPs in water. Nevertheless, their levels and occurrence vary spatially and are a function of two principal components (PCs, PC1 and PC2) which controlled 89.99% of the variance. BPA was the most widely distributed EMP, which was present in 62% of the water samples. The detected EMPs pose ecotoxicological risks in water samples, especially those from Mpumalanga province.

Occurrence of Emerging Micropollutants in Water Systems in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West Provinces, South Africa

PubMed Central

Wanda, Elijah M. M.; Nyoni, Hlengilizwe; Mamba, Bhekie B.; Msagati, Titus A. M.

2017-01-01

The ubiquitous occurrence of emerging micropollutants (EMPs) in water is an issue of growing environmental-health concern worldwide. However, there remains a paucity of data regarding their levels and occurrence in water. This study determined the occurrence of EMPs namely: carbamazepine (CBZ), galaxolide (HHCB), caffeine (CAF), tonalide (AHTN), 4-nonylphenol (NP), and bisphenol A (BPA) in water from Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces, South Africa using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GCxGC-HRTOFMS). Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA were performed to determine temporal variations in occurrence of the EMPs. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Surfer Golden Graphics software for surface mapping were used to determine spatial variations in levels and occurrence of the EMPs. The mean levels ranged from 11.22 ± 18.8 ng/L for CAF to 158.49 ± 662 ng/L for HHCB. There was no evidence of statistically significant temporal variations in occurrence of EMPs in water. Nevertheless, their levels and occurrence vary spatially and are a function of two principal components (PCs, PC1 and PC2) which controlled 89.99% of the variance. BPA was the most widely distributed EMP, which was present in 62% of the water samples. The detected EMPs pose ecotoxicological risks in water samples, especially those from Mpumalanga province. PMID:28098799

Entropy-Aided Evaluation of Meteorological Droughts Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Hu, Zengyun; Xie, Ping; Li, Xinxin

2018-01-01

Evaluation of drought and its spatial distribution is essential to develop mitigation measures. In this study, we employed the entropy index to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts over China. Entropy values, with a reliable hydrological and geographical basis, are closely related to the months of precipitation deficit and its mean magnitude and can thus represent the physical formation of droughts. The value of entropy index can be roughly classified as <0.35, 0.36-0.90, and >0.90, reflecting high, middle, and low occurrence probabilities of droughts. The accumulated precipitation deficits, based on the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index at the 1, 3, 6, and 12 month scales, consistently increase with entropy decrease, no matter considering the moderately, severely, or extremely dry conditions. Therefore, Northwest China and North China, with smaller entropy values, have higher occurrence probability of droughts than South China, with a break at 38°N latitude. The aggravating droughts in North China and Southwest China over recent decades are represented by the increase in both the occurrence frequency and the magnitude. The entropy, determined by absolute magnitude of the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as its scatter and skewness characteristics, is easily calculated and can be an effective index for evaluating drought and its spatial distribution. We therefore identified dominant thresholds for entropy values and statistical characteristics of precipitation deficit, which would help evaluate the occurrence probability of droughts worldwide.

Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiaojing; Sun, Junying; Kivekäs, Niku; Kristensson, Adam; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Yangmei; Zhang, Lu; Fan, Ruxia; Qi, Xuefei; Ma, Qianli; Zhou, Huaigang

2018-01-01

In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF) events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD) data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ) in the North China Plain (NCP), Mt. Tai (TS) in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN) in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100-200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR) and new particle formation rate (J) than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM). At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial extent, relative probability of occurrence, and typical evolution of PNSD during NPF events presented in this study provide valuable information to further understand the climate and air quality effects of new particle formation.

Modelling the distributions and spatial coincidence of bluetongue vectors Culicoides imicola and the Culicoides obsoletus group throughout the Iberian peninsula.

PubMed

Calvete, C; Estrada, R; Miranda, M A; Borrás, D; Calvo, J H; Lucientes, J

2008-06-01

Data obtained by a Spanish national surveillance programme in 2005 were used to develop climatic models for predictions of the distribution of the bluetongue virus (BTV) vectors Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and the Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen throughout the Iberian peninsula. Models were generated using logistic regression to predict the probability of species occurrence at an 8-km spatial resolution. Predictor variables included the annual mean values and seasonalities of a remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a sun index, interpolated precipitation and temperature. Using an information-theoretic paradigm based on Akaike's criterion, a set of best models accounting for 95% of model selection certainty were selected and used to generate an average predictive model for each vector. The predictive performances (i.e. the discrimination capacity and calibration) of the average models were evaluated by both internal and external validation. External validation was achieved by comparing average model predictions with surveillance programme data obtained in 2004 and 2006. The discriminatory capacity of both models was found to be reasonably high. The estimated areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were 0.78 and 0.70 for the C. imicola and C. obsoletus group models, respectively, in external validation, and 0.81 and 0.75, respectively, in internal validation. The predictions of both models were in close agreement with the observed distribution patterns of both vectors. Both models, however, showed a systematic bias in their predicted probability of occurrence: observed occurrence was systematically overestimated for C. imicola and underestimated for the C. obsoletus group. Average models were used to determine the areas of spatial coincidence of the two vectors. Although their spatial distributions were highly complementary, areas of spatial coincidence were identified, mainly in Portugal and in the southwest of peninsular Spain. In a hypothetical scenario in which both Culicoides members had similar vectorial capacity for a BTV strain, these areas should be considered of special epidemiological concern because any epizootic event could be intensified by consecutive vector activity developed for both species during the year; consequently, the probability of BTV spreading to remaining areas occupied by both vectors might also be higher.

Sagebrush ecosystem conservation and management: Ecoregional assessment tools and models for the Wyoming Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanser, S.E.; Leu, M.; Knick, S.T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2011-01-01

The Wyoming Basins are one of the remaining strongholds of the sagebrush ecosystem. However, like most sagebrush habitats, threats to this region are numerous. This book adds to current knowledge about the regional status of the sagebrush ecosystem, the distribution of habitats, the threats to the ecosystem, and the influence of threats and habitat conditions on occurrence and abundance of sagebrush associated fauna and flora in the Wyoming Basins. Comprehensive methods are outlined for use in data collection and monitoring of wildlife and plant populations. Field and spatial data are integrated into a spatially explicit analytical framework to develop models of species occurrence and abundance for the egion. This book provides significant new information on distributions, abundances, and habitat relationships for a number of species of conservation concern that depend on sagebrush in the region. The tools and models presented in this book increase our understanding of impacts from land uses and can contribute to the development of comprehensive management and conservation strategies.

Symptomatic Raccoon Dogs and Sarcoptic Mange Along an Urban Gradient.

PubMed

Saito, Masayuki U; Sonoda, Yoichi

2017-06-01

We quantitatively evaluated the effects of landscape factors on the distribution of symptomatic raccoon dogs with sarcoptic mange along an urban gradient. We used 246 camera traps (182 traps from April 2005 to December 2006; 64 traps from September 2009 to October 2010) to record the occurrence of asymptomatic and symptomatic raccoon dogs at 21 survey sites along an urban-rural gradient in the Tama Hills area of Tokyo. Each occurrence was explained in terms of the surrounding forest, agricultural, and grassland areas and additional factors (i.e., seasonal variations and survey methods) at various spatial scales using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). In our analysis, a 1000-m radius was identified as the important spatial scale for asymptomatic and symptomatic raccoon dog occurrence. The peak of the predicted occurrence probability of asymptomatic raccoon dogs appeared in the intermediate forest landscape as opposed to non-forest and forest landscapes. However, a high occurrence probability of symptomatic raccoon dogs was detected in non-forest and intermediate forest landscapes (i.e., urban and suburban) as opposed to a forest landscape, presumably because of animals occurring at much higher densities in more urbanized areas. Therefore, our results suggest that human-modified landscapes play an important role in the high occurrence of sarcoptic mange in raccoon dogs.

Global biogeography of human infectious diseases.

PubMed

Murray, Kris A; Preston, Nicholas; Allen, Toph; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Hosseini, Parviez R; Daszak, Peter

2015-10-13

The distributions of most infectious agents causing disease in humans are poorly resolved or unknown. However, poorly known and unknown agents contribute to the global burden of disease and will underlie many future disease risks. Existing patterns of infectious disease co-occurrence could thus play a critical role in resolving or anticipating current and future disease threats. We analyzed the global occurrence patterns of 187 human infectious diseases across 225 countries and seven epidemiological classes (human-specific, zoonotic, vector-borne, non-vector-borne, bacterial, viral, and parasitic) to show that human infectious diseases exhibit distinct spatial grouping patterns at a global scale. We demonstrate, using outbreaks of Ebola virus as a test case, that this spatial structuring provides an untapped source of prior information that could be used to tighten the focus of a range of health-related research and management activities at early stages or in data-poor settings, including disease surveillance, outbreak responses, or optimizing pathogen discovery. In examining the correlates of these spatial patterns, among a range of geographic, epidemiological, environmental, and social factors, mammalian biodiversity was the strongest predictor of infectious disease co-occurrence overall and for six of the seven disease classes examined, giving rise to a striking congruence between global pathogeographic and "Wallacean" zoogeographic patterns. This clear biogeographic signal suggests that infectious disease assemblages remain fundamentally constrained in their distributions by ecological barriers to dispersal or establishment, despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Pathogeography thus provides an overarching context in which other factors promoting infectious disease emergence and spread are set.

A three-dimensional point process model for the spatial distribution of disease occurrence in relation to an exposure source.

PubMed

Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Schüz, Joachim; Cardis, Elisabeth; Andersen, Per K

2015-10-15

We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial aggregation of a disease around a source of potential hazard in environmental epidemiology, where now the source is the preferred ear of each phone user. In this context, the spatial distribution is a distribution over a sample of patients rather than over multiple disease cases within one geographical area. We show how the distance relation between tumour and phone can be modelled nonparametrically and, with various parametric functions, how covariates can be included in the model and how to test for the effect of distance. To illustrate the models, we apply them to a subset of the data from the Interphone Study, a large multinational case-control study on the association between brain tumours and mobile phone use. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial distribution of transferred charges across the heterointerface between perovskite transition metal oxides LaNiO{sub 3} and LaMnO{sub 3}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitamura, Miho; Photon Factory, Institute of Materials Structure Science, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization; Horiba, Koji

2016-03-14

To investigate the interfacial charge-transfer phenomena between perovskite transition metal oxides LaNiO{sub 3} (LNO) and LaMnO{sub 3} (LMO), we have performed in situ x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) measurements on LNO/LMO multilayers. The Ni-L{sub 2,3} and Mn-L{sub 2,3} XAS spectra clearly show the occurrence of electron transfer from Mn to Ni ions in the interface region. Detailed analysis of the thickness dependence of these XAS spectra has revealed that the spatial distribution of the transferred charges across the interface is significantly different between the two constituent layers. The observed spatial distribution is presumably described by the charge spreading model that treatsmore » the transfer integral between neighboring transition metal ions and the Coulomb interaction, rather than the Thomas–Fermi screening model.« less

Fine-Scale Spatial Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Waterborne Protozoa in a Drinking Water Reservoir

PubMed Central

Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Ogorzaly, Leslie; Penny, Christian; Cauchie, Henry-Michel

2015-01-01

Background: The occurrence of faecal pathogens in drinking water resources constitutes a threat to the supply of safe drinking water, even in industrialized nations. To efficiently assess and monitor the risk posed by these pathogens, sampling deserves careful design, based on preliminary knowledge on their distribution dynamics in water. For the protozoan pathogens Cryptosporidium and Giardia, only little is known about their spatial distribution within drinking water supplies, especially at fine scale. Methods: Two-dimensional distribution maps were generated by sampling cross-sections at meter resolution in two different zones of a drinking water reservoir. Samples were analysed for protozoan pathogens as well as for E. coli, turbidity and physico-chemical parameters. Results: Parasites displayed heterogeneous distribution patterns, as reflected by significant (oo)cyst density gradients along reservoir depth. Spatial correlations between parasites and E. coli were observed near the reservoir inlet but were absent in the downstream lacustrine zone. Measurements of surface and subsurface flow velocities suggest a role of local hydrodynamics on these spatial patterns. Conclusion: This fine-scale spatial study emphasizes the importance of sampling design (site, depth and position on the reservoir) for the acquisition of representative parasite data and for optimization of microbial risk assessment and monitoring. Such spatial information should prove useful to the modelling of pathogen transport dynamics in drinking water supplies. PMID:26404350

[Nutrient distribution and its relationship with occurrence of red tide in coastal area of East China Sea].

PubMed

Han, Xiurong; Wang, Xiulin; Sun, Xia; Shi, Xiaoyong; Zhu, Chenjian; Zhang, Chuansong; Lu, Rong

2003-07-01

Nutrient (NO3(-)-N, PO4(3-)-P, Sio3(2-)-Si, NH4(+)-N, etc.) concentrations in coastal area of East China Sea were measured during April 25 to May 2, 2002, and the relationship between the spatial distribution of the nutrients and the red tide occurrence in the studied area was analyzed. The results showed that compared to the 1st class seawater quality of the national standard, the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and PO4(-)-P were 46% and 60% higher, respectively, showing that the studied area, especially the Changjiang River estuary and the Hangzhou Bay, was at a disadvantage of eutrophication. Furthermore, the nutrient concentrations inshore were much higher than those offshore, and the isolines nearly paralleled with the coastline, meaning that the nutrient distributions were mainly influenced by terrestrial discharges. It also showed that the relatively high concentrations of nutrients, especially DIN and PO4(3-)-P, might result in the red-tide occurrence. However, the red tide did not occur in the area with the highest concentrations of the nutrients, further demonstrating that the eutrophication was not the unique environmental factor inducing red-tide occurrence.

ENANTIOMERIC OCCURRENCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF CHIRAL ORGANOCHLORINE COMPOUNDS IN U.S. RIVER SEDIMENT AND BIOTA

EPA Science Inventory

River sediment and biota (fish, bivalves) from throughout the continental U.S. were analyzed for chiral organochlorine compounds (o,p'-DDT and DDD, some chlordane compounds, PCB atropisomers) to assess spatial trends in environmental chirality. Chiral PCB enantiomers were racemic...

Spatial distribution of canine zoonotic enteroparasites in Bahía Blanca, Argentina.

PubMed

La Sala, Luciano F; Leiboff, Anastasia; Burgos, Julián M; Costamagna, Sixto R

2015-01-01

The objectives of this research were: (1) to determine the occurrence of zoonotic enteroparasites in dog feces from Bahía Blanca, Argentina; (2) to characterize the spatial distribution of the parasites found in association with the quality of life index (QLI) in neighborhoods of Bahía Blanca; and (3) to determine if the presence of a particular parasite genus in a stool sample was facilitated or impeded by the presence of other parasite genera. Samples of dog stools (n=475) were collected between December 2012 and December 2013 in areas with varying QLI. The association between QLI values and the presence of parasites was analyzed using logistic regression. Overall enteroparasite occurrence was 36.6%. Parasitic forms found included nematode larvae, cysts of Blastocystis spp., Giardia spp., and oocysts of Cryptosporidium spp., and eggs of Ancylostoma caninum, Toxocara canis, cestodes and Trichuris spp. For certain enteroparasites, we detected significant associations between their occurrence and QLI. Feces collected in areas with medium and low QLI were 2.46 and 5.43 times more likely, respectively, to contain A. caninum than stools from the high-QLI area. Samples from areas with low QLI were 2.36 times more likely to contain Trichuris spp. than those from the high QLI area. Regarding protozoa, feces from areas with low QLI were 2.4 times more likely to be positive than those from areas with high QLI. We demonstrated that canine zoonotic parasites have a wide distribution in the study area, and that occurrence is higher in neighborhoods with lower QLI. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Spatially-explicit estimation of geographical representation in large-scale species distribution datasets.

PubMed

Kalwij, Jesse M; Robertson, Mark P; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

2014-01-01

Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution dataset mergers, such as the one exemplified here, can serve as a baseline towards comprehensive species distribution datasets.

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

Predicting the geographic distribution of a species from presence-only data subject to detection errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Several models have been developed to predict the geographic distribution of a species by combining measurements of covariates of occurrence at locations where the species is known to be present with measurements of the same covariates at other locations where species occurrence status (presence or absence) is unknown. In the absence of species detection errors, spatial point-process models and binary-regression models for case-augmented surveys provide consistent estimators of a species’ geographic distribution without prior knowledge of species prevalence. In addition, these regression models can be modified to produce estimators of species abundance that are asymptotically equivalent to those of the spatial point-process models. However, if species presence locations are subject to detection errors, neither class of models provides a consistent estimator of covariate effects unless the covariates of species abundance are distinct and independently distributed from the covariates of species detection probability. These analytical results are illustrated using simulation studies of data sets that contain a wide range of presence-only sample sizes. Analyses of presence-only data of three avian species observed in a survey of landbirds in western Montana and northern Idaho are compared with site-occupancy analyses of detections and nondetections of these species.

Can we infer plant facilitation from remote sensing? A test across global drylands

PubMed Central

Xu, Chi; Holmgren, Milena; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Soliveres, Santiago; Berdugo, Miguel; Kéfi, Sonia; Marquet, Pablo A.; Abades, Sebastian; Scheffer, Marten

2016-01-01

Facilitation is a major force shaping the structure and diversity of plant communities in terrestrial ecosystems. Detecting positive plant-plant interactions relies on the combination of field experimentation and the demonstration of spatial association between neighboring plants. This has often restricted the study of facilitation to particular sites, limiting the development of systematic assessments of facilitation over regional and global scales. Here we explore whether the frequency of plant spatial associations detected from high-resolution remotely-sensed images can be used to infer plant facilitation at the community level in drylands around the globe. We correlated the information from remotely-sensed images freely available through Google Earth™ with detailed field assessments, and used a simple individual-based model to generate patch-size distributions using different assumptions about the type and strength of plant-plant interactions. Most of the patterns found from the remotely-sensed images were more right-skewed than the patterns from the null model simulating a random distribution. This suggests that the plants in the studied drylands show stronger spatial clustering than expected by chance. We found that positive plant co-occurrence, as measured in the field, was significantly related to the skewness of vegetation patch-size distribution measured using Google Earth™ images. Our findings suggest that the relative frequency of facilitation may be inferred from spatial pattern signals measured from remotely-sensed images, since facilitation often determines positive co-occurrence among neighboring plants. They pave the road for a systematic global assessment of the role of facilitation in terrestrial ecosystems. PMID:26552256

ERMiT: Estimating Post-Fire Erosion in Probabilistic Terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Elliot, W. J.; Hall, D. E.; Moffet, C. A.

2006-12-01

Mitigating the impact of post-wildfire runoff and erosion on life, property, and natural resources have cost the United States government tens of millions of dollars over the past decade. The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) is a web-based application that estimates erosion in probabilistic terms on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands. Unlike most erosion prediction models, ERMiT does not provide `average annual erosion rates;' rather, it provides a distribution of erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT combines rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity, soil properties, and ground cover to estimate Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model input parameter values. Based on 20 to 40 individual WEPP runs, ERMiT produces a distribution of rain event erosion rates with a probability of occurrence for each of five post-fire years. Over the 5 years of modeled recovery, the occurrence probability of the less erodible soil parameters is increased and the occurrence probability of the more erodible soil parameters is decreased. In addition, the occurrence probabilities and the four spatial arrangements of burn severity (arrangements of overland flow elements (OFE's)), are shifted toward lower burn severity with each year of recovery. These yearly adjustments are based on field measurements made through post-fire recovery periods. ERMiT also provides rain event erosion rate distributions for hillslopes that have been treated with seeding, straw mulch, straw wattles and contour-felled log erosion barriers. Such output can help managers make erosion mitigation treatment decisions based on the probability of high sediment yields occurring, the value of resources at risk for damage, cost, and other management considerations.

Filling in the GAPS: evaluating completeness and coverage of open-access biodiversity databases in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Troia, Matthew J.; McManamay, Ryan A.

Primary biodiversity data constitute observations of particular species at given points in time and space. Open-access electronic databases provide unprecedented access to these data, but their usefulness in characterizing species distributions and patterns in biodiversity depend on how complete species inventories are at a given survey location and how uniformly distributed survey locations are along dimensions of time, space, and environment. Our aim was to compare completeness and coverage among three open-access databases representing ten taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, freshwater bivalves, crayfish, freshwater fish, fungi, insects, mammals, plants, and reptiles) in the contiguous United States. We compiled occurrence records frommore » the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and federally administered fish surveys (FFS). In this study, we aggregated occurrence records by 0.1° × 0.1° grid cells and computed three completeness metrics to classify each grid cell as well-surveyed or not. Next, we compared frequency distributions of surveyed grid cells to background environmental conditions in a GIS and performed Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests to quantify coverage through time, along two spatial gradients, and along eight environmental gradients. The three databases contributed >13.6 million reliable occurrence records distributed among >190,000 grid cells. The percent of well-surveyed grid cells was substantially lower for GBIF (5.2%) than for systematic surveys (BBS and FFS; 82.5%). Still, the large number of GBIF occurrence records produced at least 250 well-surveyed grid cells for six of nine taxonomic groups. Coverages of systematic surveys were less biased across spatial and environmental dimensions but were more biased in temporal coverage compared to GBIF data. GBIF coverages also varied among taxonomic groups, consistent with commonly recognized geographic, environmental, and institutional sampling biases. Lastly, this comprehensive assessment of biodiversity data across the contiguous United States provides a prioritization scheme to fill in the gaps by contributing existing occurrence records to the public domain and planning future surveys.« less

Filling in the GAPS: evaluating completeness and coverage of open-access biodiversity databases in the United States

DOE PAGES

Troia, Matthew J.; McManamay, Ryan A.

2016-06-12

Primary biodiversity data constitute observations of particular species at given points in time and space. Open-access electronic databases provide unprecedented access to these data, but their usefulness in characterizing species distributions and patterns in biodiversity depend on how complete species inventories are at a given survey location and how uniformly distributed survey locations are along dimensions of time, space, and environment. Our aim was to compare completeness and coverage among three open-access databases representing ten taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, freshwater bivalves, crayfish, freshwater fish, fungi, insects, mammals, plants, and reptiles) in the contiguous United States. We compiled occurrence records frommore » the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and federally administered fish surveys (FFS). In this study, we aggregated occurrence records by 0.1° × 0.1° grid cells and computed three completeness metrics to classify each grid cell as well-surveyed or not. Next, we compared frequency distributions of surveyed grid cells to background environmental conditions in a GIS and performed Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests to quantify coverage through time, along two spatial gradients, and along eight environmental gradients. The three databases contributed >13.6 million reliable occurrence records distributed among >190,000 grid cells. The percent of well-surveyed grid cells was substantially lower for GBIF (5.2%) than for systematic surveys (BBS and FFS; 82.5%). Still, the large number of GBIF occurrence records produced at least 250 well-surveyed grid cells for six of nine taxonomic groups. Coverages of systematic surveys were less biased across spatial and environmental dimensions but were more biased in temporal coverage compared to GBIF data. GBIF coverages also varied among taxonomic groups, consistent with commonly recognized geographic, environmental, and institutional sampling biases. Lastly, this comprehensive assessment of biodiversity data across the contiguous United States provides a prioritization scheme to fill in the gaps by contributing existing occurrence records to the public domain and planning future surveys.« less

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Means and Variability of Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Uptake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal Dean; Walker, Gregory K.; Collatz, George J.; Thornton, Peter E.

2013-01-01

Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).

Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Ibañez-Justicia, Adolfo; Cianci, Daniela

2015-05-01

Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Netherlands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Random forest models were used to link the occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validated. The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and North Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were important for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. The areas identified by the model as suitable and with high abundance of An. plumbeus, are consistent with the areas from which nuisance was reported. Our results can be helpful in the assessment of vector-borne disease risk.

Spatial distribution of pulmonary blood flow in dogs in increased force environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenleaf, J. F.; Ritman, E. L.; Chevalier, P. A.; Sass, D. J.; Wood, E. H.

1978-01-01

Spatial distribution of pulmonary blood flow during 2- to 3-min exposures to 6-8 Gy acceleration was studied, using radioactive microspheres in dogs, and compared to previously reported 1 Gy control distributions. Isotope distributions were measured by scintiscanning individual 1-cm-thick cross sections of excised, fixed lungs. Results indicate: (1) the fraction of cardiac output traversing left and right lungs did not change systematically with the duration and magnitude of acceleration; but (2) the fraction is strongly affected by the occurrence or absence of fast deep breaths, which cause an increase or decrease, respectively, in blood flow through the dependent lung; and (3) Gy acceleration caused a significant increase in relative pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) in nondependent and dependent regions of the lung concurrent with a decrease in PVR in the midsagittal region of the thorax.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Gardner, Beth; Oppel, Steffen; Meirinho, Ana; Ramírez, Iván; Miller, Peter I.; Louzao, Maite

2012-01-01

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of seabirds at sea is important for conservation. During marine conservation planning, logistical constraints preclude seabird surveys covering the complete area of interest and spatial distribution of seabirds is frequently inferred from predictive statistical models. Increasingly complex models are available to relate the distribution and abundance of pelagic seabirds to environmental variables, but a comparison of their usefulness for delineating protected areas for seabirds is lacking. Here we compare the performance of five modelling techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, Random Forest, boosted regression trees, and maximum entropy) to predict the distribution of Balearic Shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) along the coast of the western Iberian Peninsula. We used ship transect data from 2004 to 2009 and 13 environmental variables to predict occurrence and density, and evaluated predictive performance of all models using spatially segregated test data. Predicted distribution varied among the different models, although predictive performance varied little. An ensemble prediction that combined results from all five techniques was robust and confirmed the existence of marine important bird areas for Balearic Shearwaters in Portugal and Spain. Our predictions suggested additional areas that would be of high priority for conservation and could be proposed as protected areas. Abundance data were extremely difficult to predict, and none of five modelling techniques provided a reliable prediction of spatial patterns. We advocate the use of ensemble modelling that combines the output of several methods to predict the spatial distribution of seabirds, and use these predictions to target separate surveys assessing the abundance of seabirds in areas of regular use.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Japanese encephalitis Disease and Detection of Disease Hotspots: a Case Study of Gorakhpur District, Uttar Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, S.; Gupta, R. D.

2014-11-01

In recent times, Japanese Encephalitis (JE) has emerged as a serious public health problem. In India, JE outbreaks were recently reported in Uttar Pradesh, Gorakhpur. The present study presents an approach to use GIS for analyzing the reported cases of JE in the Gorakhpur district based on spatial analysis to bring out the spatial and temporal dynamics of the JE epidemic. The study investigates spatiotemporal pattern of the occurrence of disease and detection of the JE hotspot. Spatial patterns of the JE disease can provide an understanding of geographical changes. Geospatial distribution of the JE disease outbreak is being investigated since 2005 in this study. The JE incidence data for the years 2005 to 2010 is used. The data is then geo-coded at block level. Spatial analysis is used to evaluate autocorrelation in JE distribution and to test the cases that are clustered or dispersed in space. The Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation technique is used to predict the pattern of JE incidence distribution prevalent across the study area. Moran's I Index (Moran's I) statistics is used to evaluate autocorrelation in spatial distribution. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) is used to identify the disease areas. The results represent spatial disease patterns from 2005 to 2010, depicting spatially clustered patterns with significant differences between the blocks. It is observed that the blocks on the built up areas reported higher incidences.

Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Moriguchi, Sachiko; Tominaga, Atsushi; Irwin, Kelly J; Freake, Michael J; Suzuki, Kazutaka; Goka, Koichi

2015-04-08

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Sinka, Marianne E.; Duda, Kirsten A.; Mylne, Adrian; Shearer, Freya M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Messina, Jane P.; Barker, Christopher M.; Moore, Chester G.; Carvalho, Roberta G.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; van Bortel, Wim; Hendrickx, Guy; Schaffner, Francis; Wint, G. R. William; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Teng, Hwa-Jen; Hay, Simon I.

2015-07-01

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors’ global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit.

The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence

PubMed Central

Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Sinka, Marianne E.; Duda, Kirsten A.; Mylne, Adrian; Shearer, Freya M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Messina, Jane P.; Barker, Christopher M.; Moore, Chester G.; Carvalho, Roberta G.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Van Bortel, Wim; Hendrickx, Guy; Schaffner, Francis; Wint, G. R. William; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Teng, Hwa-Jen; Hay, Simon I.

2015-01-01

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors’ global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit. PMID:26175912

Regional and vertical distribution of semitransparent cirrus clouds over the tropical Indian region derived from CALIPSO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meenu, S.; Rajeev, K.; Parameswaran, K.

2011-08-01

Monthly mean spatial and vertical distributions of the frequency of occurrence (FSTC) of semitransparent cirrus (STC) and their physical and optical properties over the Indian region are investigated using multiyear CALIPSO data. Over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), FSTC above the lapse-rate tropopause is >30% during the summer monsoon season, most of which has optical depth <0.03. Based on spatial variations of the observed STC properties away from deep convective regions, we propose that the presence of high-altitude clouds below STCs over the BoB and Indian regions during summer monsoon reduces dissipation of STCs, resulting in their longer lifetime (˜1-2 days).

Parameter Estimation for a Model of Space-Time Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1985-08-01

In this paper, parameter estimation procedures, based on data from a network of rainfall gages, are developed for a class of space-time rainfall models. The models, which are designed to represent the spatial distribution of daily rainfall, have three components, one that governs the temporal occurrence of storms, a second that distributes rain cells spatially for a given storm, and a third that determines the rainfall pattern within a rain cell. Maximum likelihood and method of moments procedures are developed. We illustrate that limitations on model structure are imposed by restricting data sources to rain gage networks. The estimation procedures are applied to a 240-mi2 (621 km2) catchment in the Potomac River basin.

The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

PubMed

Soultan, Alaaeldin; Safi, Kamran

2017-01-01

Digitized species occurrence data provide an unprecedented source of information for ecologists and conservationists. Species distribution model (SDM) has become a popular method to utilise these data for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of species, and for modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to study the impact of noise in species occurrence data (namely sample size and positional accuracy) on the performance and reliability of SDM, considering the multiplicative impact of SDM algorithms, species specialisation, and grid resolution. We created a set of four 'virtual' species characterized by different specialisation levels. For each of these species, we built the suitable habitat models using five algorithms at two grid resolutions, with varying sample sizes and different levels of positional accuracy. We assessed the performance and reliability of the SDM according to classic model evaluation metrics (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic) and model agreement metrics (Overall Concordance Correlation Coefficient and geographic niche overlap) respectively. Our study revealed that species specialisation had by far the most dominant impact on the SDM. In contrast to previous studies, we found that for widespread species, low sample size and low positional accuracy were acceptable, and useful distribution ranges could be predicted with as few as 10 species occurrences. Range predictions for narrow-ranged species, however, were sensitive to sample size and positional accuracy, such that useful distribution ranges required at least 20 species occurrences. Against expectations, the MAXENT algorithm poorly predicted the distribution of specialist species at low sample size.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of prostate cancer obtained from histopathological images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Kristians; Castaneda, Benjamin; Montero, Maria Luisa; Yao, Jorge; Joseph, Jean; Rubens, Deborah; Parker, Kevin J.

2013-03-01

Understanding the spatial distribution of prostate cancer and how it changes according to prostate specific antigen (PSA) values, Gleason score, and other clinical parameters may help comprehend the disease and increase the overall success rate of biopsies. This work aims to build 3D spatial distributions of prostate cancer and examine the extent and location of cancer as a function of independent clinical parameters. The border of the gland and cancerous regions from wholemount histopathological images are used to reconstruct 3D models showing the localization of tumor. This process utilizes color segmentation and interpolation based on mathematical morphological distance. 58 glands are deformed into one prostate atlas using a combination of rigid, affine, and b-spline deformable registration techniques. Spatial distribution is developed by counting the number of occurrences in a given position in 3D space from each registered prostate cancer. Finally a difference between proportions is used to compare different spatial distributions. Results show that prostate cancer has a significant difference (SD) in the right zone of the prostate between populations with PSA greater and less than 5ng/ml. Age does not have any impact in the spatial distribution of the disease. Positive and negative capsule-penetrated cases show a SD in the right posterior zone. There is SD in almost all the glands between cases with tumors larger and smaller than 10% of the whole prostate. A larger database is needed to improve the statistical validity of the test. Finally, information from whole-mount histopathological images may provide better insight into prostate cancer.

A spatial and temporal analysis of four cancers in African gold miners from Southern Africa.

PubMed

Harington, J S; McGlashan, N D; Bradshaw, E; Geddes, E W; Purves, L R

1975-06-01

The pattern of cancer in African gold miners over the 8-year period 1964-71, comprising 2,926,461 man-years of employment was studied. Of the 1344 cancers found, primary liver cancer accounted for 52-8%, oesophageal cancer 12-1%, cancer of the respiratory system 5-4% and cancer of the bladder 4-8%. Analysis of the spatial distribution of these four cancers, both on subcontinental and local scale, showed distinct gradients of occurrence between areas of significantly higher and lower incidence than expected. In the case of primary liver cancer in Mozambique and oesophageal cancer in the Transkei, the spatial distribution reflects closely that found in the general resident population of each territory. The crude incidence rate of primary liver cancer in gold miners from Mozambique dropped sharply over the period of the survey.

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Spatial Distribution of Counties in the Continental United States with Records of Occurrence of Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae)

PubMed Central

SPRINGER, YURI P.; EISEN, LARS; BEATI, LORENZA; JAMES, ANGELA M.; EISEN, REBECCA J.

2015-01-01

In addition to being a major nuisance biter, the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (L.), is increasingly recognized as an important vector of pathogens affecting humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Despite its notoriety, efforts have been lacking to define the spatial occurrence of A. americanum in the continental United States with precision beyond that conveyed in continental-scale distribution maps. Here we present a county-level distribution map for A. americanum generated by compiling collection records obtained from a search of the published literature and databases managed by the USDA, U.S. National Tick Collection, and Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit. Our decadal and cumulative maps, which visually summarize 18,121 collections made between 1898 and 2012, show that A. americanum is either established (≥six ticks or ≥two life stages) or reported (

Referrals to a regional allergy clinic - an eleven year audit

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Allergy is a serious and apparently increasing public health problem yet relatively little is known about the types of allergy seen in routine tertiary practice, including their spatial distribution, co-occurrence or referral patterns. This study reviewed referrals over an eleven year period to a regional allergy clinic that had a well defined geographical boundary. For those patients confirmed as having an allergy we explored: (i) differences over time and by demographics, (ii) types of allergy, (iii) co-occurrence, and (iv) spatial distributions. Methods Data were extracted from consultant letters to GPs, from September 1998 to September 2009, for patients confirmed as having an allergy. Other data included referral statistics and population data by postcode. Simple descriptive analysis was used to describe types of allergy. We calculated 11 year standardised morbidity ratios for postcode districts and checked for spatial clustering. We present maps showing 11 year rates by postcode, and 'difference' maps which try to separate referral effect from possible environmental effect. Results Of 5778 referrals, 961 patients were diagnosed with an allergy. These were referred by a total of 672 different GPs. There were marked differences in referral patterns between GP practices and also individual GPs. The mean age of patients was 35 and there were considerably more females (65%) than males. Airborne allergies were the most frequent (623), and there were very high rates of co-occurrence of pollen, house dust mite, and animal hair allergies. Less than half (410) patients had a food allergy, with nuts, fruit, and seafood being the most common allergens. Fifteen percent (142) had both a food and a non-food allergy. Certain food allergies were more likely to co-occur, for example, patients allergic to dairy products were more likely to be allergic to egg. There were age differences by types of allergy; people referred with food allergies were on average 5 years younger than those with other allergies, and those allergic to nuts were much younger (26 Vs 38) than those with other food allergies. There was clear evidence for spatial clustering with marked clustering around the referral hospital. However, the geographical distribution varied between allergies; airborne (particularly pollen allergies) clustered in North Dartmoor and Exmoor, food allergies (particularly nut allergies) in the South Hams, and on small numbers, some indication of seafood allergy in the far south west of Cornwall and in the Padstow area. Conclusions This study shows marked geographical differences in allergy referrals which are likely to reflect a combination of environmental factors and GP referral patterns. The data suggest that GPs may benefit from education and ongoing decision support and be supported by public education on the nature of allergy. It suggests further research into what happens to patients with allergy where there has been low use of tertiary services and further research into cross-reactivity and co-occurrence, and spatial distribution of allergy. PMID:21190546

Spatial Distribution of Black Bear Incident Reports in Michigan

PubMed Central

McFadden-Hiller, Jamie E.; Beyer, Dean E.; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

Interactions between humans and carnivores have existed for centuries due to competition for food and space. American black bears are increasing in abundance and populations are expanding geographically in many portions of its range, including areas that are also increasing in human density, often resulting in associated increases in human-bear conflict (hereafter, bear incidents). We used public reports of bear incidents in Michigan, USA, from 2003–2011 to assess the relative contributions of ecological and anthropogenic variables in explaining the spatial distribution of bear incidents and estimated the potential risk of bear incidents. We used weighted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index mean as an index of primary productivity, region (i.e., Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula), primary and secondary road densities, and percentage land cover type within 6.5-km2 circular buffers around bear incidents and random points. We developed 22 a priori models and used generalized linear models and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to rank models. The global model was the best compromise between model complexity and model fit (w = 0.99), with a ΔAIC 8.99 units from the second best performing model. We found that as deciduous forest cover increased, the probability of bear incident occurrence increased. Among the measured anthropogenic variables, cultivated crops and primary roads were the most important in our AIC-best model and were both positively related to the probability of bear incident occurrence. The spatial distribution of relative bear incident risk varied markedly throughout Michigan. Forest cover fragmented with agriculture and other anthropogenic activities presents an environment that likely facilitates bear incidents. Our map can help wildlife managers identify areas of bear incident occurrence, which in turn can be used to help develop strategies aimed at reducing incidents. Researchers and wildlife managers can use similar mapping techniques to assess locations of specific conflict types or to address human impacts on endangered species. PMID:27119344

SpeciesGeoCoder: Fast Categorization of Species Occurrences for Analyses of Biodiversity, Biogeography, Ecology, and Evolution.

PubMed

Töpel, Mats; Zizka, Alexander; Calió, Maria Fernanda; Scharn, Ruud; Silvestro, Daniele; Antonelli, Alexandre

2017-03-01

Understanding the patterns and processes underlying the uneven distribution of biodiversity across space constitutes a major scientific challenge in systematic biology and biogeography, which largely relies on effectively mapping and making sense of rapidly increasing species occurrence data. There is thus an urgent need for making the process of coding species into spatial units faster, automated, transparent, and reproducible. Here we present SpeciesGeoCoder, an open-source software package written in Python and R, that allows for easy coding of species into user-defined operational units. These units may be of any size and be purely spatial (i.e., polygons) such as countries and states, conservation areas, biomes, islands, biodiversity hotspots, and areas of endemism, but may also include elevation ranges. This flexibility allows scoring species into complex categories, such as those encountered in topographically and ecologically heterogeneous landscapes. In addition, SpeciesGeoCoder can be used to facilitate sorting and cleaning of occurrence data obtained from online databases, and for testing the impact of incorrect identification of specimens on the spatial coding of species. The various outputs of SpeciesGeoCoder include quantitative biodiversity statistics, global and local distribution maps, and files that can be used directly in many phylogeny-based applications for ancestral range reconstruction, investigations of biome evolution, and other comparative methods. Our simulations indicate that even datasets containing hundreds of millions of records can be analyzed in relatively short time using a standard computer. We exemplify the use of SpeciesGeoCoder by inferring the historical dispersal of birds across the Isthmus of Panama, showing that lowland species crossed the Isthmus about twice as frequently as montane species with a marked increase in the number of dispersals during the last 10 million years. [ancestral area reconstruction; biodiversity patterns; ecology; evolution; point in polygon; species distribution data.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Spatial Distribution of Black Bear Incident Reports in Michigan.

PubMed

McFadden-Hiller, Jamie E; Beyer, Dean E; Belant, Jerrold L

2016-01-01

Interactions between humans and carnivores have existed for centuries due to competition for food and space. American black bears are increasing in abundance and populations are expanding geographically in many portions of its range, including areas that are also increasing in human density, often resulting in associated increases in human-bear conflict (hereafter, bear incidents). We used public reports of bear incidents in Michigan, USA, from 2003-2011 to assess the relative contributions of ecological and anthropogenic variables in explaining the spatial distribution of bear incidents and estimated the potential risk of bear incidents. We used weighted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index mean as an index of primary productivity, region (i.e., Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula), primary and secondary road densities, and percentage land cover type within 6.5-km2 circular buffers around bear incidents and random points. We developed 22 a priori models and used generalized linear models and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank models. The global model was the best compromise between model complexity and model fit (w = 0.99), with a ΔAIC 8.99 units from the second best performing model. We found that as deciduous forest cover increased, the probability of bear incident occurrence increased. Among the measured anthropogenic variables, cultivated crops and primary roads were the most important in our AIC-best model and were both positively related to the probability of bear incident occurrence. The spatial distribution of relative bear incident risk varied markedly throughout Michigan. Forest cover fragmented with agriculture and other anthropogenic activities presents an environment that likely facilitates bear incidents. Our map can help wildlife managers identify areas of bear incident occurrence, which in turn can be used to help develop strategies aimed at reducing incidents. Researchers and wildlife managers can use similar mapping techniques to assess locations of specific conflict types or to address human impacts on endangered species.

Real-time passive acoustic detection of marine mammals from a variety of autonomous platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgartner, M.; Van Parijs, S. M.; Hotchkin, C. F.; Gurnee, J.; Stafford, K.; Winsor, P.; Davies, K. T. A.; Taggart, C. T.

2016-02-01

Over the past two decades, passive acoustic monitoring has proven to be an effective means of estimating the occurrence of marine mammals. The vast majority of applications involve archival recordings from bottom-mounted instruments or towed hydrophones from moving ships; however, there is growing interest in assessing marine mammal occurrence from autonomous platforms, particularly in real time. The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution has developed the capability to detect, classify, and remotely report in near real time the calls of marine mammals via passive acoustics from a variety of autonomous platforms, including Slocum gliders, wave gliders, and moored buoys. The mobile Slocum glider can simultaneously measure marine mammal occurrence and oceanographic conditions throughout the water column, making it well suited for studying both marine mammal distribution and habitat. Wave gliders and moored buoys provide complementary observations over much larger spatial scales and longer temporal scales, respectively. The near real-time reporting capability of these platforms enables follow-up visual observations, on-water research, or responsive management action. We have recently begun to use this technology to regularly monitor baleen whales off the coast of New England, USA and Nova Scotia, Canada, as well as baleen whales, beluga whales, and bearded seals in the Chukchi Sea off the northwest coast of Alaska, USA. Our long-range goal is to monitor occurrence over wide spatial and temporal extents as part of the regional and global ocean observatory initiatives to improve marine mammal conservation and management and to study changes in marine mammal distribution over multi-annual time scales in response to climate change.

Deforestation and Forest Fires in Roraima and Their Relationship with Phytoclimatic Regions in the Northern Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

2015-05-01

Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

Occurrence, spatial distribution, and ecological risks of typical hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers in surface sediments from a large freshwater lake of China.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Wu, Sheng-Min; Zhang, Qin; Guo, Min; Cheng, Jie; Zhang, Sheng-Hu; Yao, Cheng; Chen, Jian-Qiu

2017-02-01

Hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (OH-PBDEs) have been frequently observed in marine aquatic environments; however, little information is available on the occurrence of these compounds in freshwater aquatic environments, including freshwater lakes. In this study, we investigated the occurrence and spatial distribution of typical OH-PBDEs, including 2'-OH-BDE-68, 3-OH-BDE-47, 5-OH-BDE-47, and 6-OH-BDE-47 in surface sediments of Taihu Lake. 3-OH-BDE-47 was the predominant congener, followed by 5-OH-BDE-47, 2'-OH-BDE-68, and 6-OH-BDE-47. Distributions of these compounds are drastically different between sampling site which may be a result of differences in nearby point sources, such as the discharge of industrial wastewater and e-waste leachate. The positive correlation between ∑OH-PBDEs and total organic carbon (TOC) was moderate (r = 0.485, p < 0.05), and site S3 and S15 were excluded due to point source pollution, suggesting that OH-PBDEs concentrations were controlled by sediment TOC content, as well as other factors. The pairwise correlations between the concentrations of these compounds suggest that these compounds may have similar input sources and environmental behavior. The target compounds in the sediments of Lake Taihu pose low risks to aquatic organisms. Results show that OH-PBDEs in Lake Taihu are largely dependent on pollution sources. Because of bioaccumulation and subsequent harmful effects on aquatic organisms, the concentrations of OH-PBDEs in freshwater ecosystems are of environmental concern.

Detecting surface runoff location in a small catchment using distributed and simple observation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehotin, Judicaël; Breil, Pascal; Braud, Isabelle; de Lavenne, Alban; Lagouy, Mickaël; Sarrazin, Benoît

2015-06-01

Surface runoff is one of the hydrological processes involved in floods, pollution transfer, soil erosion and mudslide. Many models allow the simulation and the mapping of surface runoff and erosion hazards. Field observations of this hydrological process are not common although they are crucial to evaluate surface runoff models and to investigate or assess different kinds of hazards linked to this process. In this study, a simple field monitoring network is implemented to assess the relevance of a surface runoff susceptibility mapping method. The network is based on spatially distributed observations (nine different locations in the catchment) of soil water content and rainfall events. These data are analyzed to determine if surface runoff occurs. Two surface runoff mechanisms are considered: surface runoff by saturation of the soil surface horizon and surface runoff by infiltration excess (also called hortonian runoff). The monitoring strategy includes continuous records of soil surface water content and rainfall with a 5 min time step. Soil infiltration capacity time series are calculated using field soil water content and in situ measurements of soil hydraulic conductivity. Comparison of soil infiltration capacity and rainfall intensity time series allows detecting the occurrence of surface runoff by infiltration-excess. Comparison of surface soil water content with saturated water content values allows detecting the occurrence of surface runoff by saturation of the soil surface horizon. Automatic records were complemented with direct field observations of surface runoff in the experimental catchment after each significant rainfall event. The presented observation method allows the identification of fast and short-lived surface runoff processes at a small spatial and temporal resolution in natural conditions. The results also highlight the relationship between surface runoff and factors usually integrated in surface runoff mapping such as topography, rainfall parameters, soil or land cover. This study opens interesting prospects for the use of spatially distributed measurement for surface runoff detection, spatially distributed hydrological models implementation and validation at a reasonable cost.

Drivers of Non-Native Aquatic Species Invasions across the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background/Question/Methods Mapping the geographic distribution of non-native aquatic species is a critically important precursor to understanding the anthropogenic and environmental factors that drive freshwater biological invasions. Such efforts are often limited to local scales and/or to a single taxa, missing the opportunity to observe and understand the drivers of macroscale invasion patterns at sub-continental or continental scales. Here we map the distribution of exotic freshwater species richness across the continental United States using publicly accessible species occurrence data (e.g GBIF) and investigate the role of human activity in driving macroscale patterns of aquatic invasion. Using a dasymetric model of human population density and a spatially explicit model of recreational freshwater fishing demand, we analyzed the effect of these metrics of human influence on non-native aquatic species richness at the watershed scale, while controlling for spatial and sampling bias. We also assessed the effects that a temporal mismatch between occurrence data (collected since 1815) and cross-sectional predictors (developed using 2010 data) may have on model fit. Results/Conclusions Our results indicated that non-native aquatic species richness exhibits a highly patchy distribution, with hotspots in the Northeast, Great Lakes, Florida, and human population centers on the Pacific coast. These richness patterns are correlated with population density, but are m

Spatial heterogeneity and risk factors for stunting among children under age five in Ethiopia: A Bayesian geo-statistical model.

PubMed

Hagos, Seifu; Hailemariam, Damen; WoldeHanna, Tasew; Lindtjørn, Bernt

2017-01-01

Understanding the spatial distribution of stunting and underlying factors operating at meso-scale is of paramount importance for intervention designing and implementations. Yet, little is known about the spatial distribution of stunting and some discrepancies are documented on the relative importance of reported risk factors. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring the spatial distribution of stunting at meso- (district) scale, and evaluates the effect of spatial dependency on the identification of risk factors and their relative contribution to the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting in a rural area of Ethiopia. A community based cross sectional study was conducted to measure the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting among children aged 0-59 months. Additionally, we collected relevant information on anthropometric measures, dietary habits, parent and child-related demographic and socio-economic status. Latitude and longitude of surveyed households were also recorded. Local Anselin Moran's I was calculated to investigate the spatial variation of stunting prevalence and identify potential local pockets (hotspots) of high prevalence. Finally, we employed a Bayesian geo-statistical model, which accounted for spatial dependency structure in the data, to identify potential risk factors for stunting in the study area. Overall, the prevalence of stunting and severe stunting in the district was 43.7% [95%CI: 40.9, 46.4] and 21.3% [95%CI: 19.5, 23.3] respectively. We identified statistically significant clusters of high prevalence of stunting (hotspots) in the eastern part of the district and clusters of low prevalence (cold spots) in the western. We found out that the inclusion of spatial structure of the data into the Bayesian model has shown to improve the fit for stunting model. The Bayesian geo-statistical model indicated that the risk of stunting increased as the child's age increased (OR 4.74; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]:3.35-6.58) and among boys (OR 1.28; 95%BCI; 1.12-1.45). However, maternal education and household food security were found to be protective against stunting and severe stunting. Stunting prevalence may vary across space at different scale. For this, it's important that nutrition studies and, more importantly, control interventions take into account this spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of nutritional deficits and their underlying associated factors. The findings of this study also indicated that interventions integrating household food insecurity in nutrition programs in the district might help to avert the burden of stunting.

Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

2011-06-01

Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LYMNAEIDAE (MOLLUSCA, BASOMMATOPHORA), INTERMEDIATE HOST OF Fasciola hepatica LINNAEUS, 1758 (TREMATODA, DIGENEA) IN BRAZIL

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Camilla; Scholte, Ronaldo Guilherme Carvalho; D'ávila, Sthefane; Caldeira, Roberta Lima; Carvalho, Omar dos Santos

2014-01-01

Snails of the family Lymnaeidae act as intermediate hosts in the biological cycle of Fasciola hepatica, which is a biological agent of fasciolosis, a parasitic disease of medical importance for humans and animals. The present work aimed to update and map the spatial distribution of the intermediate host snails of F. hepatica in Brazil. Data on the distribution of lymnaeids species were compiled from the Collection of Medical Malacology (Fiocruz-CMM, CPqRR), Collection of Malacology (MZUSP), “SpeciesLink” (CRIA) network and through systematic surveys in the literature. Our maps of the distribution of lymnaeids show that Pseudosuccinea columella is the most common species and it is widespread in the South and Southeast with few records in the Midwest, North and Northeast regions. The distribution of the Galba viatrix, G. cubensis and G. truncatula showed a few records in the South and Southeast regions, they were not reported for the Midwest, North and Northeast. In addition, in the South region there are a few records for G. viatrix and one occurrence of Lymnaea rupestris. Our findings resulted in the first map of the spatial distribution of Lymnaeidae species in Brazil which might be useful to better understand the fasciolosis distribution and delineate priority areas for control interventions. PMID:24879003

Geostatistics as a tool to improve the natural background level definition: An application in groundwater.

PubMed

Dalla Libera, Nico; Fabbri, Paolo; Mason, Leonardo; Piccinini, Leonardo; Pola, Marco

2017-11-15

The Natural Background Level (NBL), suggested by UE BRIDGE project, is suited for spatially distributed datasets providing a regional value that could be higher than the Threshold Value (TV) set by every country. In hydro-geochemically dis-homogeneous areas, the use of a unique regional NBL, higher than TV, could arise problems to distinguish between natural occurrences and anthropogenic contaminant sources. Hence, the goal of this study is to improve the NBL definition employing a geostatistical approach, which reconstructs the contaminant spatial structure accounting geochemical and hydrogeological relationships. This integrated mapping is fundamental to evaluate the contaminant's distribution impact on the NBL, giving indications to improve it. We decided to test this method on the Drainage Basin of Venice Lagoon (DBVL, NE Italy), where the existing NBL is seven times higher than the TV. This area is notoriously affected by naturally occurring arsenic contamination. An available geochemical dataset collected by 50 piezometers was used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of arsenic in the densely populated area of the DBVL. A cokriging approach was applied exploiting the geochemical relationships among As, Fe and NH4+. The obtained spatial predictions of arsenic concentrations were divided into three different zones: i) areas with an As concentration lower than the TV, ii) areas with an As concentration between the TV and the median of the values higher than the TV, and iii) areas with an As concentration higher than the median. Following the BRIDGE suggestions, where enough samples were available, the 90th percentile for each zone was calculated to obtain a local NBL (LNBL). Differently from the original NBL, this local value gives more detailed water quality information accounting the hydrogeological and geochemical setting, and contaminant spatial variation. Hence, the LNBL could give more indications about the distinction between natural occurrence and anthropogenic contamination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential distribution dataset of honeybees in Indian Ocean Islands: Case study of Zanzibar Island.

PubMed

Mwalusepo, Sizah; Muli, Eliud; Nkoba, Kiatoko; Nguku, Everlyn; Kilonzo, Joseph; Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M; Landmann, Tobias; Fakih, Asha; Raina, Suresh

2017-10-01

Honeybees ( Apis mellifera ) are principal insect pollinators, whose worldwide distribution and abundance is known to largely depend on climatic conditions. However, the presence records dataset on potential distribution of honeybees in Indian Ocean Islands remain less documented. Presence records in shape format and probability of occurrence of honeybees with different temperature change scenarios is provided in this article across Zanzibar Island. Maximum entropy (Maxent) package was used to analyse the potential distribution of honeybees. The dataset provides information on the current and future distribution of the honey bees in Zanzibar Island. The dataset is of great importance for improving stakeholders understanding of the role of temperature change on the spatial distribution of honeybees.

Spatial occurrence of a habitat-tracking saproxylic beetle inhabiting a managed forest landscape.

PubMed

Schroeder, L Martin; Ranius, Thomas; Ekbom, Barbara; Larsson, Stig

2007-04-01

Because of the dynamic nature of many managed habitats, proper evaluation of conservation efforts calls for models that take into account both spatial and temporal habitat dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model for successional-type systems, in which habitat quality changes over time in a predictable fashion. The occupancy and recruitment of the predatory saproxylic (dependent on dead wood) beetle Harminius undulatus was studied in a managed boreal forest landscape, covering 24,449 ha, in central Sweden. In a first step, we analyzed the beetle's occupancy pattern in relation to stand characteristics, and the amounts of present and past habitat in the surrounding landscape. Managed forest is suitable habitat when > or =60 years old, and immediately after cutting, but not between the ages of 10 and 60 years. The observed occupancy of H. undulatus was positively correlated with the stand's age as habitat. We used a metapopulation model to predict the current probability of occurrence in each forest stand, given the spatiotemporal distribution of suitable forest stands during the last 50 years. Metapopulation parameters were estimated by matching predicted spatial distributions with observed spatial distributions. The model predicted observed spatial distributions better than a similar model that assumed constant habitat quality of each forest stand. Thus, metapopulation models for successional-type systems, such as dead wood dependent organisms in managed forest landscapes, should include habitat dynamics. An estimated 82% of the landscape-wide recruitment took place in managed stands, which covered 87% of the forest area, in comparison with 18% in unmanaged stands, which covered 13% of the forest area. Among the managed stand types, > or =60-year-old stands and 3-7-year-old clear-cuttings contributed to 79% of the total recruitment while 8-59-year-old stands only contributed 3%. The results suggest the following guidelines to improve conditions for H. undulatus and other species with similar habitat requirements: (1) the proportion of the landscape constituted by younger stands should not be allowed to grow too large, (2) the rotation period of managed stands should not be allowed to be too short, and (3) dead wood should be retained and created at final cutting.

Climatology of contribution-weighted tropical rain rates based on TRMM 3B42

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venugopal, V.; Wallace, J. M.

2016-10-01

The climatology of annual mean tropical rain rate is investigated based on merged Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data. At 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution, and 3-hourly temporal resolution, half the rain is concentrated within only ˜1% of the area of the tropics at any given instant. When plotted as a function of logarithm of rain rate, the cumulative contribution of rate-ranked rain occurrences to the annual mean rainfall in each grid box is S shaped and its derivative, the contribution-weighted rain rate spectrum, is Gaussian shaped. The 50% intercept of the cumulative contribution R50 is almost equivalent to the contribution-weighted mean logarithmic rain rate RL¯ based on all significant rain occurrences. The spatial patterns of R50 and RL¯ are similar to those obtained by mapping the fraction of the annual accumulation explained by rain occurrences with rates above various specified thresholds. The geographical distribution of R50 confirms the existence of patterns noted in prior analyses based on TRMM precipitation radar data and reveals several previously unnoticed features.

red - an R package to facilitate species red list assessments according to the IUCN criteria

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract The International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List is the most useful database of species that are at risk of extinction worldwide, as it relies on a number of objective criteria and is now widely adopted. The R package red – IUCN Redlisting Tools - performs a number of spatial analyses based on either observed occurrences or estimated ranges. Functions include calculating Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), mapping species ranges, species distribution modelling using climate and land cover and calculating the Red List Index for groups of species. The package allows the calculation of confidence limits for all measures. Spatial data of species occurrences, environmental or land cover variables can be either given by the user or automatically extracted from several online databases. It outputs geographical range, elevation and country values, maps in several formats and vectorial data for visualization in Google Earth. Several examples are shown demonstrating the usefulness of the different methods. The red package constitutes an open platform for further development of new tools to facilitate red list assessments. PMID:29104439

Self-organization of the magnetization in ferromagnetic nanowires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, A. A.; Orlov, V. A.

2017-10-01

In this work we demonstrate the occurrence of the characteristic spatial scale in the distribution of magnetization unrelated to the domain wall or crystallite size with using computer simulation of magnetization in a polycrystalline ferromagnetic nanowire. This is the stochastic domain size. We show that this length is included in the spectral density of the pinning force of domain wall on inhomogeneities of the crystallographic anisotropy. The constant and distribution of easy axes directions of the effective anisotropy of stochastic domain, are analytically calculated.

Spatial Distribution and Relationship of T1ρ and T2 Relaxation Times in Knee Cartilage With Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaojuan; Pai, Alex; Blumenkrantz, Gabrielle; Carballido-Gamio, Julio; Link, Thomas; Ma, Benjamin; Ries, Michael; Majumdar, Sharmila

2009-01-01

T1ρ and T2 relaxation time constants have been proposed to probe biochemical changes in osteoarthritic cartilage. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial correlation and distribution of T1ρ and T2 values in osteoarthritic cartilage. Ten patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and 10 controls were studied at 3T. The spatial correlation of T1ρ and T2 values was investigated using Z-scores. The spatial variation of T1ρ and T2 values in patellar cartilage was studied in different cartilage layers. The distribution of these relaxation time constants was measured using texture analysis parameters based on gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM). The mean Z-scores for T1ρ and T2 values were significantly higher in OA patients vs. controls (P < 0.05). Regional correlation coefficients of T1ρ and T2 Z-scores showed a large range in both controls and OA patients (0.2– 0.7). OA patients had significantly greater GLCM contrast and entropy of T1ρ values than controls (P < 0.05). In summary, T1ρ and T2 values are not only increased but are also more heterogeneous in osteoarthritic cartilage. T1ρ and T2 values show different spatial distributions and may provide complementary information regarding cartilage degeneration in OA. PMID:19319904

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources.

PubMed

Johnston, Alison; Fink, Daniel; Reynolds, Mark D; Hochachka, Wesley M; Sullivan, Brian L; Bruns, Nicholas E; Hallstein, Eric; Merrifield, Matt S; Matsumoto, Sandi; Kelling, Steve

2015-10-01

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

Is substrate composition a suitable predictor for deep-water coral occurrence on fine scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennecke, Swaantje; Metaxas, Anna

2017-06-01

Species distribution modelling can be applied to identify potentially suitable habitat for species with largely unknown distributions, such as many deep-water corals. Important variables influencing species occurrence in the deep sea, e.g. substrate composition, are often not included in these modelling approaches because high-resolution data are unavailable. We investigated the relationship between substrate composition and the occurrence of the two deep-water octocoral species Primnoa resedaeformis and Paragorgia arborea, which require hard substrate for attachment. On a scale of 10s of metres, we analysed images of the seafloor taken at two locations inside the Northeast Channel Coral Conservation Area in the Northwest Atlantic. We interpolated substrate composition over the sampling areas and determined the contribution of substrate classes, depth and slope to describe habitat suitability using maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). Substrate composition was similar at both sites - dominated by pebbles in a matrix of sand (>80%) with low percentages of suitable substrate for coral occurrence. Coral abundance was low at site 1 (0.9 colonies of P. resedaeformis per 100 m2) and high at site 2 (63 colonies of P. resedaeformis per 100 m2) indicating that substrate alone is not sufficient to explain varying patterns in coral occurrence. Spatial interpolations of substrate classes revealed the difficulty to accurately resolve sparsely distributed boulders (3-5% of substrate). Boulders were by far the most important variable in the habitat suitability model (HSM) for P. resedaeformis at site 1, indicating the fundamental influence of a substrate class that is the least abundant. At site 2, HSMs identified cobbles and sand/pebble as the most important variables for habitat suitability. However, substrate classes were correlated making it difficult to determine the influence of individual variables. To provide accurate information on habitat suitability for the two coral species, substrate composition needs to be quantified so that small fractions (<20% contribution of certain substrate class) of suitable substrate are resolved. While the collection and analysis of high-resolution data is costly and spatially limited, the required resolution is unlikely to be achieved in coarse-scale interpolations of substrate data.

Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

PubMed

Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

2014-10-01

Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

[The occurrence of Echinococcus multilocularis in red foxes in lower Saxony: identification of a high risk area by spatial epidemiological cluster analysis].

PubMed

Berke, Olaf; von Keyserlingk, Michael; Broll, Susanne; Kreienbrock, Lothar

2002-01-01

There is considerable interest in the spatial distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes L.), because this parasite causes the zoonoses of alveolar echinococcosis which is potentially of high fatality rate. High risk areas are known from France, Switzerland and the Swabian Alb in Germany for a long time. In this work, the spatial scan statistic is introduced as an instrument for identification and localisation of high risk areas, so called disease clusters in spatial epidemiology. The use of the spatial scan statistic along with data about the distribution of the parasite in 5365 red foxes in Lower Saxony, that were collected during 1991 to 1997, led to the identification of another high risk area. The relative risk for this disease cluster is approximated by RR = 5.03 (CI0.95(RR) = [4.27; 6.58]) for the period of 1991 to 1994 and by RR = 4.45 (CI0.95(RR) = [3.53; 5.59]) for the period of 1994 to 1997, respectively.

Community health assessment using self-organizing maps and geographic information systems

PubMed Central

Basara, Heather G; Yuan, May

2008-01-01

Background From a public health perspective, a healthier community environment correlates with fewer occurrences of chronic or infectious diseases. Our premise is that community health is a non-linear function of environmental and socioeconomic effects that are not normally distributed among communities. The objective was to integrate multivariate data sets representing social, economic, and physical environmental factors to evaluate the hypothesis that communities with similar environmental characteristics exhibit similar distributions of disease. Results The SOM algorithm used the intrinsic distributions of 92 environmental variables to classify 511 communities into five clusters. SOM determined clusters were reprojected to geographic space and compared with the distributions of several health outcomes. ANOVA results indicated that the variability between community clusters was significant with respect to the spatial distribution of disease occurrence. Conclusion Our study demonstrated a positive relationship between environmental conditions and health outcomes in communities using the SOM-GIS method to overcome data and methodological challenges traditionally encountered in public health research. Results demonstrated that community health can be classified using environmental variables and that the SOM-GIS method may be applied to multivariate environmental health studies. PMID:19116020

Mapping Tamarix: New techniques for field measurements, spatial modeling and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelista, Paul H.

Native riparian ecosystems throughout the southwestern United States are being altered by the rapid invasion of Tamarix species, commonly known as tamarisk. The effects that tamarisk has on ecosystem processes have been poorly quantified largely due to inadequate survey methods. I tested new approaches for field measurements, spatial models and remote sensing to improve our ability measure and to map tamarisk occurrence, and provide new methods that will assist in management and control efforts. Examining allometric relationships between basal cover and height measurements collected in the field, I was able to produce several models to accurately estimate aboveground biomass. The best two models were explained 97% of the variance (R 2 = 0.97). Next, I tested five commonly used predictive spatial models to identify which methods performed best for tamarisk using different types of data collected in the field. Most spatial models performed well for tamarisk, with logistic regression performing best with an Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.89 and overall accuracy of 85%. The results of this study also suggested that models may not perform equally with different invasive species, and that results may be influenced by species traits and their interaction with environmental factors. Lastly, I tested several approaches to improve the ability to remotely sense tamarisk occurrence. Using Landsat7 ETM+ satellite scenes and derived vegetation indices for six different months of the growing season, I examined their ability to detect tamarisk individually (single-scene analyses) and collectively (time-series). My results showed that time-series analyses were best suited to distinguish tamarisk from other vegetation and landscape features (AUC = 0.96, overall accuracy = 90%). June, August and September were the best months to detect unique phenological attributes that are likely related to the species' extended growing season and green-up during peak growing months. These studies demonstrate that new techniques can further our understanding of tamarisk's impacts on ecosystem processes, predict potential distribution and new invasions, and improve our ability to detect occurrence using remote sensing techniques. Collectively, the results of my studies may increase our ability to map tamarisk distributions and better quantify its impacts over multiple spatial and temporal scales.

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.

Spatial mismatch analysis among hotspots of alien plant species, road and railway networks in Germany and Austria

PubMed Central

Morelli, Federico

2017-01-01

Road and railway networks are pervasive elements of all environments, which have expanded intensively over the last century in all European countries. These transportation infrastructures have major impacts on the surrounding landscape, representing a threat to biodiversity. Roadsides and railways may function as corridors for dispersal of alien species in fragmented landscapes. However, only few studies have explored the spread of invasive species in relationship to transport network at large spatial scales. We performed a spatial mismatch analysis, based on a spatially explicit correlation test, to investigate whether alien plant species hotspots in Germany and Austria correspond to areas of high density of roads and railways. We tested this independently of the effects of dominant environments in each spatial unit, in order to focus just on the correlation between occurrence of alien species and density of linear transportation infrastructures. We found a significant spatial association between alien plant species hotspots distribution and roads and railways density in both countries. As expected, anthropogenic landscapes, such as urban areas, harbored more alien plant species, followed by water bodies. However, our findings suggested that the distribution of neobiota is strongest correlated to road/railways density than to land use composition. This study provides new evidence, from a transnational scale, that alien plants can use roadsides and rail networks as colonization corridors. Furthermore, our approach contributes to the understanding on alien plant species distribution at large spatial scale by the combination with spatial modeling procedures. PMID:28829818

Sociodemographic and environmental analysis for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Elís Rosélia Dutra de Freitas Siqueira; Castro, Vanessa; Mineiro, Ana Lys Bezerra Barradas; Prianti, Maria das Graças; Martins, Gustavo Henrique Chaves; Santana, Misael das Virgens; Brito, Lucas Moreira; Silva, Silvana Maria Medeiros de Sousa

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis whose transmission is interlinked by multiple factors in the man-animal-ecosystem interface. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs in the capital Teresina (PI), and to determine their spatial distribution. Five hundred fifty-eight dog blood samples were submitted to the Microscopic Serum Agglutination (MSA) test. We applied semi-structured questionnaires to dog owners and obtained the area of residence for projection in geographical maps. Serum prevalence was 13.8%, in which the most common serovar was icterohaemorrhagiae, with 49.2%. Dogs with street access, failure to collect food bowl and low income of owners were risk factors. There was a higher number of seropositive dogs in the rainy season, with 87.1%, which is a probable risk factor for the occurrence of cases. The distribution of seropositive dogs was widely spread in the city, with predominance of cases in anthropized areas. These risk factors favor the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs that are agent maintenance sources in the city and reinforce the need for epidemiological and environmental surveillance to prevent leptospirosis.

The influence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors on the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti larval habitats.

PubMed

De Azevedo, Thiago S; Bourke, Brian Patrick; Piovezan, Rafael; Sallum, Maria Anice M

2018-05-08

We addressed the potential associations among the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, the presence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors. Data on larval habitats were collected in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2006, and spatial and temporal variations were analysed using a wavelet-based approach. We quantified urban heat islands by calculating surface temperatures using the results of wavelet analyses and grey level transformation from Thematic Mapper images (Landsat 5). Ae. aegypti larval habitats were geo-referenced corresponding to the wavelet analyses to test the potential association between geographical distribution of habitats and surface temperature. In an inhomogeneous spatial point process, we estimated the frequency of occurrence of larval habitats in relation to temperature. The São Paulo State Social Vulnerability Index in the municipality of Santa Barbára d'Oeste was used to test the potential association between presence of larval habitats and social vulnerability. We found abundant Ae. aegypti larval habitats in areas of higher surface temperature and social vulnerability and fewer larval habitats in areas with lower surface temperature and social vulnerability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie A; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Tang, Ying; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution. PMID:29320501

Using Sex Pheromone and a Multi-Scale Approach to Predict the Distribution of a Rare Saproxylic Beetle.

PubMed

Musa, Najihah; Andersson, Klas; Burman, Joseph; Andersson, Fredrik; Hedenström, Erik; Jansson, Nicklas; Paltto, Heidi; Westerberg, Lars; Winde, Inis; Larsson, Mattias C; Bergman, Karl-Olof; Milberg, Per

2013-01-01

The European red click beetle, Elater ferrugineus L., is associated with wood mould in old hollow deciduous trees. As a result of severe habitat fragmentation caused by human disturbance, it is threatened throughout its distribution range. A new pheromone-based survey method, which is very efficient in detecting the species, was used in the present study to relate the occurrence of E. ferrugineus to the density of deciduous trees. The latter data were from a recently completed regional survey in SE Sweden recording >120,000 deciduous trees. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing amount of large hollow and large non-hollow trees in the surrounding landscape. Quercus robur (oak) was found to be the most important substrate for E. ferrugineus, whereas two groups of tree species (Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Ulmus glabra, vs. Acer platanoides, Aesculus hippocastanum, Fraxinus excelsior, Tilia cordata) were less important but may be a complement to oak in sustaining populations of the beetle. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus was explained by the density of oaks at two different spatial scales, within the circle radii 327 m and 4658 m. In conclusion, priority should be given to oaks in conservation management of E. ferrugineus, and then to the deciduous trees in the genera listed above. Conservation planning at large spatial and temporal scales appears to be essential for long-term persistence of E. ferrugineus. We also show that occurrence models based on strategic sampling might result in pessimistic predictions. This study demonstrates how pheromone-based monitoring make insects excellent tools for sustained feedback to models for landscape conservation management.

Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated. Methods According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades. Results According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables. Conclusions Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task. PMID:22768874

Using Sex Pheromone and a Multi-Scale Approach to Predict the Distribution of a Rare Saproxylic Beetle

PubMed Central

Musa, Najihah; Andersson, Klas; Burman, Joseph; Andersson, Fredrik; Hedenström, Erik; Jansson, Nicklas; Paltto, Heidi; Westerberg, Lars; Winde, Inis; Larsson, Mattias C.; Bergman, Karl-Olof; Milberg, Per

2013-01-01

The European red click beetle, Elater ferrugineus L., is associated with wood mould in old hollow deciduous trees. As a result of severe habitat fragmentation caused by human disturbance, it is threatened throughout its distribution range. A new pheromone-based survey method, which is very efficient in detecting the species, was used in the present study to relate the occurrence of E. ferrugineus to the density of deciduous trees. The latter data were from a recently completed regional survey in SE Sweden recording >120,000 deciduous trees. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing amount of large hollow and large non-hollow trees in the surrounding landscape. Quercus robur (oak) was found to be the most important substrate for E. ferrugineus, whereas two groups of tree species (Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Ulmus glabra, vs. Acer platanoides, Aesculus hippocastanum, Fraxinus excelsior, Tilia cordata) were less important but may be a complement to oak in sustaining populations of the beetle. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus was explained by the density of oaks at two different spatial scales, within the circle radii 327 m and 4658 m. In conclusion, priority should be given to oaks in conservation management of E. ferrugineus, and then to the deciduous trees in the genera listed above. Conservation planning at large spatial and temporal scales appears to be essential for long-term persistence of E. ferrugineus. We also show that occurrence models based on strategic sampling might result in pessimistic predictions. This study demonstrates how pheromone-based monitoring make insects excellent tools for sustained feedback to models for landscape conservation management. PMID:23840415

Deforestation and forest fires in Roraima and their relationship with phytoclimatic regions in the northern Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

2015-05-01

Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

Using the spatial and spectral precision of satellite imagery to predict wildlife occurrence patterns.

Treesearch

Edward J. Laurent; Haijin Shi; Demetrios Gatziolis; Joseph P. LeBouton; Michael B. Walters; Jianguo Liu

2005-01-01

We investigated the potential of using unclassified spectral data for predicting the distribution of three bird species over a -400,000 ha region of Michigan's Upper Peninsula using Landsat ETM+ imagery and 433 locations sampled for birds through point count surveys. These species, Black-throated Green Warbler, Nashville Warbler, and Ovenbird. were known to be...

Occurrence and spatial distribution of maytansinoids in Putterlickia pyracantha, an unexplored resource of anticancer compounds.

PubMed

Eckelmann, Dennis; Kusari, Souvik; Spiteller, Michael

2016-09-01

Maytansinoids possess remarkable antibiotic activities along with high cytotoxicity, many of which are currently used (or in clinical trials) in the treatment of breast cancer. Celastraceous plants and their associated microorganisms serve as an important resource of maytansinoids. Here, we report the occurrence and structural elucidation of several maytansinoids in Putterlickia pyracantha plants bioprospected in South Africa. In addition to maytansine, which is already known to be present in this species, we show the presence of maytanprine, maytanbutine, maytanvaline, normaytancyprine and an abundant maytansine precursor in different tissues using high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, we identified two new hydroxylated maytansinoids by HRMS(2) analyses. We also employed MALDI-imaging-HRMS to study the spatial distribution and localization of the maytansinoids within the different plant tissues. On the one hand, the fragmentation pathways of the maytansinoids we report herein using HRMS(n) will allow quick identification of these compounds in the future without isolating from the natural resources. On the other hand, MALDI-imaging-HRMS revealed insights into the plausible ecological roles and biosynthetic pathways of these compounds in P. pyracantha plants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occurrence and spatial distribution of chemical contaminants in edible fish species collected from UK and proximate marine waters.

PubMed

Fernandes, A R; Mortimer, D; Holmes, M; Rose, M; Zhihua, L; Huang, X; Smith, F; Panton, S; Marshall, L

2018-05-01

The occurrence of a range of regulated and emerging organic environmental contaminants was investigated in 182 samples of edible marine fish sampled mainly from UK marine regions, but extending northerly to the coast of Norway and south to the Algarve. These species (sprats, mackerel, turbot, halibut, herring, grey mullet, sea bass, grey mullet, sardines, etc.) are among those considered to be at the highest risk of contamination with regulated contaminants such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but the occurrence of polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) was also investigated. Sub-sets of samples (50-75) were also analysed for emerging contaminants: polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated and mixed halogenated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans and biphenyls (PBDD/Fs, PXDD/Fs and PXBs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Contaminant occurrence varied with species and location, but all measured contaminants were detected, with sprats, sea bass, sardines, mackerel, and herring showing higher tissue concentrations. The concentrations of the different contaminants in the various samples were mapped utilising the GPS coordinate data of the capture locations to visualise spatial distribution levels. In terms of catch location, fish sampled from the coasts of southern Britain, north-western France and the Irish Sea appeared to contain proportionately higher levels of some contaminants - e.g. samples from the Irish Sea tended to show higher PCN concentrations, whereas higher levels of PCBs were observed in some fish sampled off the coasts of northern France. Similarly, samples of mullet from the southeast coast of UK showed much higher concentrations of BDE-99 than the other regions. In terms of occurrence trends, PCDD/F and PCB concentrations show a modest decline over the last decade but where limited background data is available for emerging contaminants, there is no evidence of downward trends. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote-sensing supported monitoring of global biodiversity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jetz, W.; Tuanmu, M. N.; W, A.; Melton, F. S.; Parmentier, B.; Amatulli, G.; Guzman, A.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing combined with biodiversity observation offers an unrivalled tool for understanding and predicting species distributions and their changes at the planetary scale. I will illustrate recently developed high-resolution remote-sensing based layers targeted for spatiotemporal biodiversity modeling, addressing climate, environment, topography, and habitat heterogeneity. In particular, I will illustrate the development and use of global MODIS-derived environmental layers for biodiversity assessment and change monitoring. Remote-sensing based capture of these putative predictors of biodiversity dynamics provides more a reliable signal than spatially interpolated layers and avoids inflated spatial autocorrelation. The layers result in more accurate models of species occurrence and are more readily able to address the scale of processes underpinning species distributions, e.g. when combined with emerging hierarchical, cross-scale models. I illustrate the multiple ways in which this type of information, based on continuously collected data, supports the prediction of not just spatial but also temporal variation in biodiversity. Using implementations in the Map of Life infrastructure I will showcase new indicators of species distribution and change that demonstrate these new opportunities.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

PubMed Central

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. PMID:22686347

Occurrence, spatiotemporal distribution, and ecological risks of steroids in a large shallow Chinese lake, Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Zhou, Li-Jun; Zhang, Bei-Bei; Zhao, Yong-Gang; Wu, Qinglong L

2016-07-01

Steroids have been frequently detected in surface waters, and might pose adverse effects on aquatic organisms. However, little information is available regarding the occurrence and spatiotemporal distribution of steroids in lake environments. In addition to pollution sources, the occurrence and spatiotemporal distribution of steroids in lake environments might be related to lake types (shallow or deep), lake hydrodynamics, and sorption-desorption processes in the water-sediment systems. In this study, the occurrence, spatiotemporal distribution, and ecological risks of 36 steroids in a large shallow lake were evaluated by investigating surface water and sediment samples at 32 sites in Lake Taihu over two seasons. Twelve and 15 analytes were detected in aqueous and sedimentary phases, respectively, with total concentrations ranging from 0.86 to 116ng/L (water) and from 0.82 to 16.2ng/g (sediment, dry weight). Temporal variations of steroid concentrations in the water and sediments were statistically significant, with higher concentrations in winter. High concentrations of steroids were found in the seriously polluted bays rather than in the pelagic zone of the lake. Strong lake currents might mix pelagic waters, resulting in similar concentrations of steroids in the pelagic zone. Mass balance analysis showed that sediments in shallow lakes are in general an important sink for steroids. Steroids in the surface water and sediments of Lake Taihu might pose potential risks to aquatic organisms. Overall, our study indicated that the concentrations and spatiotemporal distribution of steroids in the large shallow lake are influenced simultaneously by pollution sources and lake hydrodynamics. Steroids in the large shallow Lake Taihu showed clear temporal and spatial variations and lake sediments may be a potential sink of steroids. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence in the context of rural development in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R Miranda; Brian R Sturtevant; Susan I Stewart; Roger B. Hammer

2012-01-01

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression...

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The final article in a series of three publications examining the global distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria is presented here. The first publication examined the DVS from the Americas, with the second covering those species present in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Here we discuss the 19 DVS of the Asian-Pacific region. This region experiences a high diversity of vector species, many occurring sympatrically, which, combined with the occurrence of a high number of species complexes and suspected species complexes, and behavioural plasticity of many of these major vectors, adds a level of entomological complexity not comparable elsewhere globally. To try and untangle the intricacy of the vectors of this region and to increase the effectiveness of vector control interventions, an understanding of the contemporary distribution of each species, combined with a synthesis of the current knowledge of their behaviour and ecology is needed. Results Expert opinion (EO) range maps, created with the most up-to-date expert knowledge of each DVS distribution, were combined with a contemporary database of occurrence data and a suite of open access, environmental and climatic variables. Using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, distribution maps of each DVS were produced. The occurrence data were abstracted from the formal, published literature, plus other relevant sources, resulting in the collation of DVS occurrence at 10116 locations across 31 countries, of which 8853 were successfully geo-referenced and 7430 were resolved to spatial areas that could be included in the BRT model. A detailed summary of the information on the bionomics of each species and species complex is also presented. Conclusions This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria. The three articles produced are intended as a detailed reference for scientists continuing research into the aspects of taxonomy, biology and ecology relevant to species-specific vector control. This research is particularly relevant to help unravel the complicated taxonomic status, ecology and epidemiology of the vectors of the Asia-Pacific region. All the occurrence data, predictive maps and EO-shape files generated during the production of these publications will be made available in the public domain. We hope that this will encourage data sharing to improve future iterations of the distribution maps. PMID:21612587

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis.

PubMed

Sinka, Marianne E; Bangs, Michael J; Manguin, Sylvie; Chareonviriyaphap, Theeraphap; Patil, Anand P; Temperley, William H; Gething, Peter W; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Kabaria, Caroline W; Harbach, Ralph E; Hay, Simon I

2011-05-25

The final article in a series of three publications examining the global distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria is presented here. The first publication examined the DVS from the Americas, with the second covering those species present in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Here we discuss the 19 DVS of the Asian-Pacific region. This region experiences a high diversity of vector species, many occurring sympatrically, which, combined with the occurrence of a high number of species complexes and suspected species complexes, and behavioural plasticity of many of these major vectors, adds a level of entomological complexity not comparable elsewhere globally. To try and untangle the intricacy of the vectors of this region and to increase the effectiveness of vector control interventions, an understanding of the contemporary distribution of each species, combined with a synthesis of the current knowledge of their behaviour and ecology is needed. Expert opinion (EO) range maps, created with the most up-to-date expert knowledge of each DVS distribution, were combined with a contemporary database of occurrence data and a suite of open access, environmental and climatic variables. Using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, distribution maps of each DVS were produced. The occurrence data were abstracted from the formal, published literature, plus other relevant sources, resulting in the collation of DVS occurrence at 10116 locations across 31 countries, of which 8853 were successfully geo-referenced and 7430 were resolved to spatial areas that could be included in the BRT model. A detailed summary of the information on the bionomics of each species and species complex is also presented. This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria. The three articles produced are intended as a detailed reference for scientists continuing research into the aspects of taxonomy, biology and ecology relevant to species-specific vector control. This research is particularly relevant to help unravel the complicated taxonomic status, ecology and epidemiology of the vectors of the Asia-Pacific region. All the occurrence data, predictive maps and EO-shape files generated during the production of these publications will be made available in the public domain. We hope that this will encourage data sharing to improve future iterations of the distribution maps.

The distribution of catchment coverage by stationary rainstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagleson, P. S.

1984-01-01

The occurrence of wetted rainstorm area within a catchment is modeled as a Poisson arrival process in which each storm is composed of stationary, nonoverlapping, independent random cell clusters whose centers are Poisson-distributed in space and whose areas are fractals. The two Poisson parameters and hence the first two moments of the wetted fraction are derived in terms of catchment average characteristics of the (observable) station precipitation. The model is used to estimate spatial properties of tropical air mass thunderstorms on six tropical catchments in the Sudan.

The landscape of fear as an emergent property of heterogeneity: Contrasting patterns of predation risk in grassland ecosystems.

PubMed

Atuo, Fidelis Akunke; O'Connell, Timothy John

2017-07-01

The likelihood of encountering a predator influences prey behavior and spatial distribution such that non-consumptive effects can outweigh the influence of direct predation. Prey species are thought to filter information on perceived predator encounter rates in physical landscapes into a landscape of fear defined by spatially explicit heterogeneity in predation risk. The presence of multiple predators using different hunting strategies further complicates navigation through a landscape of fear and potentially exposes prey to greater risk of predation. The juxtaposition of land cover types likely influences overlap in occurrence of different predators, suggesting that attributes of a landscape of fear result from complexity in the physical landscape. Woody encroachment in grasslands furnishes an example of increasing complexity with the potential to influence predator distributions. We examined the role of vegetation structure on the distribution of two avian predators, Red-tailed Hawk ( Buteo jamaicensis ) and Northern Harrier ( Circus cyaneus ), and the vulnerability of a frequent prey species of those predators, Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ). We mapped occurrences of the raptors and kill locations of Northern Bobwhite to examine spatial vulnerability patterns in relation to landscape complexity. We use an offset model to examine spatially explicit habitat use patterns of these predators in the Southern Great Plains of the United States, and monitored vulnerability patterns of their prey species based on kill locations collected during radio telemetry monitoring. Both predator density and predation-specific mortality of Northern Bobwhite increased with vegetation complexity generated by fine-scale interspersion of grassland and woodland. Predation pressure was lower in more homogeneous landscapes where overlap of the two predators was less frequent. Predator overlap created areas of high risk for Northern Bobwhite amounting to 32% of the land area where landscape complexity was high and 7% where complexity was lower. Our study emphasizes the need to evaluate the role of landscape structure on predation dynamics and reveals another threat from woody encroachment in grasslands.

Predicting the distribution of the Asian tapir in Peninsular Malaysia using maximum entropy modeling.

PubMed

Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Rayan, D Mark; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Kawanishi, Kae; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David; Yazi, Muhammad Fadlli Abdul; Tingley, Reid

2012-12-01

In 2008, the IUCN threat status of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) was reclassified from 'vulnerable' to 'endangered'. The latest distribution map from the IUCN Red List suggests that the tapirs' native range is becoming increasingly fragmented in Peninsular Malaysia, but distribution data collected by local researchers suggest a more extensive geographical range. Here, we compile a database of 1261 tapir occurrence records within Peninsular Malaysia, and demonstrate that this species, indeed, has a much broader geographical range than the IUCN range map suggests. However, extreme spatial and temporal bias in these records limits their utility for conservation planning. Therefore, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to elucidate the potential extent of the Asian tapir's occurrence in Peninsular Malaysia while accounting for bias in existing distribution data. Our MaxEnt model predicted that the Asian tapir has a wider geographic range than our fine-scale data and the IUCN range map both suggest. Approximately 37% of Peninsular Malaysia contains potentially suitable tapir habitats. Our results justify a revision to the Asian tapir's extent of occurrence in the IUCN Red List. Furthermore, our modeling demonstrated that selectively logged forests encompass 45% of potentially suitable tapir habitats, underscoring the importance of these habitats for the conservation of this species in Peninsular Malaysia. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Using Remote Sensing Observations and Empirical-Statistical Methods to Understand the Present State and Predictable Future Changes in the State of Permafrost Distribution in North-Western Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baral, P.; Haq, M. A.; Mangan, P.

2017-12-01

The impacts of climate change on extent of permafrost degradation in the Himalayas and its effect upon the carbon cycle and ecosystem changes are not well understood due to lack of historical ground-based observations. We have used high resolution optical and satellite radar observations and applied empirical-statistical methods for the estimation of spatial and altitudinal limits of permafrost distribution in North-Western Himalayas. Visual interpretations of morphological characteristics using high resolution optical images have been used for mapping, identification and classification of distinctive geomorphological landforms. Subsequently, we have created a detail inventory of different types of rock glaciers and studied the contribution of topo climatic factors in their occurrence and distribution through Logistic Regression modelling. This model establishes the relationship between presence of permafrost and topo-climatic factors like Mean Annual Air Temperature (MAAT), Potential Incoming Solar Radiation (PISR), altitude, aspect and slope. This relationship has been used to estimate the distributed probability of permafrost occurrence, within a GIS environment. The ability of the model to predict permafrost occurrence has been tested using locations of mapped rock glaciers and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Additionally, interferometric properties of Sentinel and ALOS PALSAR datasets are used for the identification and assessment of rock glacier activity in the region.

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: A dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism

Treesearch

Aquila Flower; Daniel G. Gavin; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Russell A. Parsons; Gregory M. Cohn

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these...

Influence of current climate, historical climate stability and topography on species richness and endemism in Mesoamerican geophyte plants

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background A number of biotic and abiotic factors have been proposed as drivers of geographic variation in species richness. As biotic elements, inter-specific interactions are the most widely recognized. Among abiotic factors, in particular for plants, climate and topographic variables as well as their historical variation have been correlated with species richness and endemism. In this study, we determine the extent to which the species richness and endemism of monocot geophyte species in Mesoamerica is predicted by current climate, historical climate stability and topography. Methods Using approximately 2,650 occurrence points representing 507 geophyte taxa, species richness (SR) and weighted endemism (WE) were estimated at a geographic scale using grids of 0.5 × 0.5 decimal degrees resolution using Mexico as the geographic extent. SR and WE were also estimated using species distributions inferred from ecological niche modeling for species with at least five spatially unique occurrence points. Current climate, current to Last Glacial Maximum temperature, precipitation stability and topographic features were used as predictor variables on multiple spatial regression analyses (i.e., spatial autoregressive models, SAR) using the estimates of SR and WE as response variables. The standardized coefficients of the predictor variables that were significant in the regression models were utilized to understand the observed patterns of species richness and endemism. Results Our estimates of SR and WE based on direct occurrence data and distribution modeling generally yielded similar results, though estimates based on ecological niche modeling indicated broader distribution areas for SR and WE than when species richness was directly estimated using georeferenced coordinates. The SR and WE of monocot geophytes were highest along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, in both cases with higher levels in the central area of this mountain chain. Richness and endemism were also elevated in the southern regions of the Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental mountain ranges, and in the Tehuacán Valley. Some areas of the Sierra Madre del Sur and Sierra Madre Oriental had high levels of WE, though they are not the areas with the highest SR. The spatial regressions suggest that SR is mostly influenced by current climate, whereas endemism is mainly affected by topography and precipitation stability. Conclusions Both methods (direct occurrence data and ecological niche modeling) used to estimate SR and WE in this study yielded similar results and detected a key area that should be considered in plant conservation strategies: the central region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Our results also corroborated that species richness is more closely correlated with current climate factors while endemism is related to differences in topography and to changes in precipitation levels compared to the LGM climatic conditions. PMID:29062605

On the spatial distribution of decameter‒scale subauroral ionospheric irregularities observed by SuperDARN radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larquier, S.; Ponomarenko, P.; Ribeiro, A. J.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Baker, J. B. H.; Sterne, K. T.; Lester, M.

2013-08-01

The midlatitude Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radars regularly observe nighttime low‒velocity Sub‒Auroral Ionospheric Scatter (SAIS) from decameter‒scale ionospheric density irregularities during quiet geomagnetic conditions. To establish the origin of the density irregularities responsible for low‒velocity SAIS, it is necessary to distinguish between the effects of high frequency (HF) propagation and irregularity occurrence itself on the observed backscatter distribution. We compare range, azimuth, and elevation data from the Blackstone SuperDARN radar with modeling results from ray tracing coupled with the International Reference Ionosphere assuming a uniform irregularity distribution. The observed and modeled distributions are shown to be very similar. The spatial distribution of backscattering is consistent with the requirement that HF rays propagate nearly perpendicular to the geomagnetic field lines (aspect angle ≤1°). For the first time, the irregularities responsible for low‒velocity SAIS are determined to extend between 200 and 300 km altitude, validating previous assumptions that low‒velocity SAIS is an F‒region phenomenon. We find that the limited spatial extent of this category of ionospheric backscatter within SuperDARN radars' fields‒of‒view is a consequence of HF propagation effects and the finite vertical extent of the scattering irregularities. We conclude that the density irregularities responsible for low‒velocity SAIS are widely distributed horizontally within the midlatitude ionosphere but are confined to the bottom‒side F‒region.

Ecological characterization and molecular differentiation of Culex pipiens complex taxa and Culex torrentium in eastern Austria.

PubMed

Zittra, Carina; Flechl, Eva; Kothmayer, Michael; Vitecek, Simon; Rossiter, Heidemarie; Zechmeister, Thomas; Fuehrer, Hans-Peter

2016-04-11

Culex pipiens complex taxa differ in behaviour, ecophysiology and epidemiologic importance. Despite their epidemiologic significance, information on genetic diversity, occurrence and seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of the Cx. pipiens complex is still insufficient. Assessment of seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of Culex pipiens forms and their congener Cx. torrentium is crucial for the understanding of their vector-pathogen dynamics. Female mosquitoes were trapped from April-October 2014 twice a month for a 24-h time period with BG-sentinel traps at 24 sampling sites in eastern Austria, using carbon dioxide as attractant. Ecological forms of Cx. pipiens s.l. and their hybrids were differentiated using the CQ11 locus, and Cx. pipiens forms and their congener Cx. torrentium using the ACE-2 gene. Differential exploitation of ecological niches by Cx. pipiens forms and Cx. torrentium was analysed using likelihood ratio tests. Possible effects of environmental parameters on these taxa were tested using PERMANOVA based on distance matrices and, if significant, were modelled in nMDS ordination space to estimate non-linear relationships. For this study, 1476 Culex spp. were sampled. Culex pipiens f. pipiens representing 87.33 % of the total catch was most abundant, followed by hybrids of both forms (5.62 %), Cx. torrentium (3.79 %) and Cx. pipiens f. molestus (3.25 %). Differences in proportional abundances were found between land cover classes. Ecological parameters affecting seasonal and spatial distribution of these taxa in eastern Austria are precipitation duration, air temperature, sunlight and the interaction term of precipitation amount and the Danube water level, which can be interpreted as a proxy for breeding habitat availability. The Cx. pipiens complex of eastern Austria comprises both ecologically different forms, the mainly ornithophilic form pipiens and the mainly mammalophilic and anthropophilic form molestus. Heterogeneous agricultural areas as areas of coexistence may serve as hybridization zones, resulting in potential bridge vectors between birds and humans. Occurrence, seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of the Cx. pipiens complex and Cx. torrentium and the presence of hybrids between both forms were quantified for the first time in Austria. These findings will improve the knowledge of their vector-pathogen dynamics in this country.

Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

PubMed

Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Schliep, Erin M; Schaeffer, Robert N; Orians, Colin M; Orwig, David A; Preisser, Evan L

2018-05-01

A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia

PubMed Central

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. PMID:26856914

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

PubMed

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-04-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

2016-06-01

In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

Three Species of odonata Observed at TA-3 in September 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foy, Bernard R.; Hathcock, Charles Dean

2016-04-14

The spatial distribution of odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in northern New Mexico is only partly known. Information about the occurrence of species is currently being accumulated by professional and amateur biologists. Los Alamos National Laboratory has a considerable amount of suitable habitat for odonates. With effort, it is likely that many species will be discovered in Los Alamos County that have yet to be documented, which would aid in general knowledge about odonate distribution and habitat needs. We report the occurrence of three species of odonates at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the autumn season of 2015. Foy visited themore » location on 2 September 2015 and discovered two Black Meadowhawk dragonflies (Sympetrum danae). The authors returned on 10 September 2015 and photographed one individual. We also photographed a Striped Meadowhawk (Sympetrum pallipes) and a Black-fronted Forktail (Ischnura denticollis), the latter being a damselfly.« less

The Global Distribution of Yellow Fever and Dengue

PubMed Central

Rogers, D.J.; Wilson, A.J.; Hay, S.I.; Graham, A.J.

2011-01-01

Yellow fever has been subjected to partial control for decades, but there are signs that case numbers are now increasing globally, with the risk of local epidemic outbreaks. Dengue case numbers have also increased dramatically during the past 40 years and different serotypes have invaded new geographical areas. Despite the temporal changes in these closely related diseases, and their enormous public health impact, few attempts have been made to collect a comprehensive dataset of their spatial and temporal distributions. For this review, records of the occurrence of both diseases during the 20th century have been collected together and are used to define their climatic limits using remotely sensed satellite data within a discriminant analytical model framework. The resulting risk maps for these two diseases identify their different environmental requirements, and throw some light on their potential for co-occurrence in Africa and South East Asia. PMID:16647971

Cavitation measurement during sonic and ultrasonic activated irrigation.

PubMed

Macedo, Ricardo; Verhaagen, Bram; Rivas, David Fernandez; Versluis, Michel; Wesselink, Paul; van der Sluis, Luc

2014-04-01

The aims of this study were to quantify and to visualize the possible occurrence of transient cavitation (bubble formation and implosion) during sonic and ultrasonic (UAI) activated irrigation. The amount of cavitation generated around several endodontic instruments was measured by sonochemiluminescence dosimetry inside 4 root canal models of human dimensions and varying complexity. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the sonochemiluminescence in the root canal was visualized with long-exposure photography. Instrument oscillation frequency, ultrasonic power, and file taper influenced the occurrence and amount of cavitation. In UAI, cavitation was distributed between the file and the wall extending beyond the file and inside lateral canals/isthmuses. In sonic activated irrigation, no cavitation was detected. Cavitation was shown to occur in UAI at clinically relevant ultrasonic power settings in both straight and curved canals but not around sonically oscillating instruments, driven at their highest frequency. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: insights from the last 35,000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolin, Andrew R.; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Waller, Rhian G.; Scanlon, Kathryn M.; Roberts, Mark L.; Auro, Maureen E.; van de Flierdt, Tina

2014-01-01

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Actual distribution of Cronobacter spp. in industrial batches of powdered infant formula and consequences for performance of sampling strategies.

PubMed

Jongenburger, I; Reij, M W; Boer, E P J; Gorris, L G M; Zwietering, M H

2011-11-15

The actual spatial distribution of microorganisms within a batch of food influences the results of sampling for microbiological testing when this distribution is non-homogeneous. In the case of pathogens being non-homogeneously distributed, it markedly influences public health risk. This study investigated the spatial distribution of Cronobacter spp. in powdered infant formula (PIF) on industrial batch-scale for both a recalled batch as well a reference batch. Additionally, local spatial occurrence of clusters of Cronobacter cells was assessed, as well as the performance of typical sampling strategies to determine the presence of the microorganisms. The concentration of Cronobacter spp. was assessed in the course of the filling time of each batch, by taking samples of 333 g using the most probable number (MPN) enrichment technique. The occurrence of clusters of Cronobacter spp. cells was investigated by plate counting. From the recalled batch, 415 MPN samples were drawn. The expected heterogeneous distribution of Cronobacter spp. could be quantified from these samples, which showed no detectable level (detection limit of -2.52 log CFU/g) in 58% of samples, whilst in the remainder concentrations were found to be between -2.52 and 2.75 log CFU/g. The estimated average concentration in the recalled batch was -2.78 log CFU/g and a standard deviation of 1.10 log CFU/g. The estimated average concentration in the reference batch was -4.41 log CFU/g, with 99% of the 93 samples being below the detection limit. In the recalled batch, clusters of cells occurred sporadically in 8 out of 2290 samples of 1g taken. The two largest clusters contained 123 (2.09 log CFU/g) and 560 (2.75 log CFU/g) cells. Various sampling strategies were evaluated for the recalled batch. Taking more and smaller samples and keeping the total sampling weight constant, considerably improved the performance of the sampling plans to detect such a type of contaminated batch. Compared to random sampling, stratified random sampling improved the probability to detect the heterogeneous contamination. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: Insights from the last 35,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolin, Andrew R.; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Waller, Rhian G.; Scanlon, Kathryn M.; Roberts, Mark L.; Auro, Maureen E.; van de Flierdt, Tina

2014-01-01

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Occurrence and distribution of antibiotics in surface water impacted by crab culturing: a case study of Lake Guchenghu, China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenxia; Zhou, Lijun; Gu, Xiaohong; Chen, Huihui; Zeng, Qingfei; Mao, Zhigang

2018-05-30

The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence, distribution, potential sources, and ecological risk of antibiotics in aqueous phase of Lake Guchenghu, China. Target antibiotics in surface water of Lake Guchenghu, adjacent streams, and crab ponds were detected seasonally. The results showed that erythromycin-H 2 O (1.60-2450 ng/L), sulfadiazine (ND-654 ng/L), and florfenicol (ND-919 ng/L) were the predominant antibiotics in Lake Guchenghu. The concentrations of antibiotics in Lake Guchenghu Basin showed obvious seasonal variation, with the highest concentration in summer. In general, the concentrations of antibiotics in crab ponds and streams were higher than those in the lake and spatial distributions of antibiotics were affected by pollution sources. The types and origins of antibiotics indicated that wastewater from ponds was the main source of antibiotics in the lake. Risk assessment suggested that as individual compound, erythromycin-H 2 O and clarithromycin posed a high risk to algae while other compounds might pose low or no risk. The mixture of antibiotics may pose a high risk to aquatic organisms in Lake Guchenghu. Overall, our study revealed the occurrence and spatiotemporal variation of antibiotics in Lake Guchenghu, which was related with crab culturing.

Spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic occurrence and association with bedrock geology in greater augusta, maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Q.; Jung, H.B.; Culbertson, C.W.; Marvinney, R.G.; Loiselle, M.C.; Locke, D.B.; Cheek, H.; Thibodeau, H.; Zheng, Yen

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed, and 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic concentrations >10 ??g/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 ??g/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (???40%). This probability differs significantly (p < 0.001) from those in the Silurian - Ordovician sandstone (24%), the Devonian granite (15%), and the Ordovician - Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium, and high arsenic occurrences in four cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (???1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 ??g/L arsenic in groundwater. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Spatial Pattern of Groundwater Arsenic Occurrence and Association with Bedrock Geology in Greater Augusta, Maine, USA

PubMed Central

Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Culbertson, Charles W.; Marvinney, Robert G.; Loiselle, Marc C.; Locke, Daniel B.; Cheek, Heidi; Thibodeau, Hilary; Zheng, Yan

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed. 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic >10 μg/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 μg/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (~40%). This probability differs significantly (p<0.001) from those in the Silurian-Ordovician sandstone (24%), the Devonian granite (15%) and the Ordovician-Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium and high arsenic occurrences in 4 cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (~1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 μg/L arsenic in groundwater. PMID:19475939

Spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic occurrence and association with bedrock geology in greater Augusta, Maine.

PubMed

Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Culbertson, Charles W; Marvinney, Robert G; Loiselle, Marc C; Locke, Daniel B; Cheek, Heidi; Thibodeau, Hilary; Zheng, Yan

2009-04-15

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (10(0)-10(1) km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed, and 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic concentrations >10 microg/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 microg/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (approximately 40%). This probability differs significantly (p < 0.001) from those in the Silurian-Ordovician sandstone (24%),the Devonian granite (15%), and the Ordovician-Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium, and high arsenic occurrences in four cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (approximately 1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 microg/L arsenic in groundwater.

Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many factors have been associated with circulation of the dengue fever virus and vector, although the dynamics of transmission are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work is to estimate the spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in an area of continuous dengue occurrence. Methods This is a spatial population-based case-control study that analyzed 538 cases and 727 controls in one district of the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2006-2007, considering socio-demographic, ecological, case severity, and household infestation variables. Information was collected by in-home interviews and inspection of living conditions in and around the homes studied. Cases were classified as mild or severe according to clinical data, and they were compared with controls through a multinomial logistic model. A generalized additive model was used in order to include space in a non-parametric fashion with cubic smoothing splines. Results Variables associated with increased incidence of all dengue cases in the multiple binomial regression model were: higher larval density (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.7)), reports of mosquito bites during the day (OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.4-2.4)), the practice of water storage at home (OR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4, 4.3)), low frequency of garbage collection (OR = 2.6 (95%CI: 1.6-4.5)) and lack of basic sanitation (OR = 2.9 (95%CI: 1.8-4.9)). Staying at home during the day was protective against the disease (OR = 0.5 (95%CI: 0.3-0.6)). When cases were analyzed by categories (mild and severe) in the multinomial model, age and number of breeding sites more than 10 were significant only for the occurrence of severe cases (OR = 0.97, (95%CI: 0.96-0.99) and OR = 2.1 (95%CI: 1.2-3.5), respectively. Spatial distribution of risks of mild and severe dengue fever differed from each other in the 2006/2007 epidemic, in the study area. Conclusions Age and presence of more than 10 breeding sites were significant only for severe cases. Other predictors of mild and severe cases were similar in the multiple models. The analyses of multinomial models and spatial distribution maps of dengue fever probabilities suggest an area-specific epidemic with varying clinical and demographic characteristics. PMID:21599980

Revisiting crash spatial heterogeneity: A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients approach.

PubMed

Xu, Pengpeng; Huang, Helai; Dong, Ni; Wong, S C

2017-01-01

This study was performed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between crash frequency and related risk factors. A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model was elaborately introduced as a methodological alternative to simultaneously account for the unstructured and spatially structured heterogeneity of the regression coefficients in predicting crash frequencies. The proposed method was appealing in that the parameters were modeled via a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which involved a single set of random effects and a spatial correlation parameter with extreme values corresponding to pure unstructured or pure spatially correlated random effects. A case study using a three-year crash dataset from the Hillsborough County, Florida, was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Empirical analysis confirmed the presence of both unstructured and spatially correlated variations in the effects of contributory factors on severe crash occurrences. The findings also suggested that ignoring spatially structured heterogeneity may result in biased parameter estimates and incorrect inferences, while assuming the regression coefficients to be spatially clustered only is probably subject to the issue of over-smoothness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple remote sensing data sources to assess spatio-temporal patterns of fire incidence over Campos Amazônicos Savanna Vegetation Enclave (Brazilian Amazon).

PubMed

Alves, Daniel Borini; Pérez-Cabello, Fernando

2017-12-01

Fire activity plays an important role in the past, present and future of Earth system behavior. Monitoring and assessing spatial and temporal fire dynamics have a fundamental relevance in the understanding of ecological processes and the human impacts on different landscapes and multiple spatial scales. This work analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of burned areas in one of the biggest savanna vegetation enclaves in the southern Brazilian Amazon, from 2000 to 2016, deriving information from multiple remote sensing data sources (Landsat and MODIS surface reflectance, TRMM pluviometry and Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers). A fire scars database with 30 m spatial resolution was generated using a Landsat time series. MODIS daily surface reflectance was used for accurate dating of the fire scars. TRMM pluviometry data were analyzed to dynamically establish time limits of the yearly dry season and burning periods. Burned area extent, frequency and recurrence were quantified comparing the results annually/seasonally. Additionally, Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers were used to analyze fire incidence over different types of tree cover domains. In the last seventeen years, 1.03millionha were burned within the study area, distributed across 1432 fire occurrences, highlighting 2005, 2010 and 2014 as the most affected years. Middle dry season fires represent 86.21% of the total burned areas and 32.05% of fire occurrences, affecting larger amount of higher density tree surfaces than other burning periods. The results provide new insights into the analysis of burned areas of the neotropical savannas, spatially and statistically reinforcing important aspects linked to the seasonality patterns of fire incidence in this landscape. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cetacean occurrence and spatial distribution: Habitat modelling for offshore waters in the Portuguese EEZ (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Ana M.; Tepsich, Paola; Rosso, Massimiliano; Caldeira, Rui; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2015-03-01

In the Portuguese Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) (NE Atlantic), little survey effort dedicated to cetacean species has been carried out in offshore waters. As a consequence, data on their occurrence, distribution and habitat preferences is scarce. In this area, 48 sea surveys along fixed transects within Continental Portugal and Madeira Island were performed in 2012 and 2013, from July to October, using platforms of opportunity. We used an environmental envelope approach and GAM habitat models to identify the role of oceanographic, topographic and geographical variables in shaping cetacean distribution. Results demonstrate the richness of offshore waters in this area as in 10,668 nmi sampled, we recorded 218 sightings from at least nine cetacean species, resulting in an overall ER of 2.04 sightings/100 nmi. The interaction of topographic and oceanographic features was shown to influence the distribution of the species/groups along the routes. Among the sighted species, only common dolphin showed a preference for coastal waters, while for all the other species high seas proved to be determinant. This result reinforces the need to address conservation issues in open ocean. This preliminary assessment showed the importance of the entire area for the distribution of different cetacean species and allowed the identification of several species/group specific potential suitable habitats. Considering the Habitats Directive resolutions, ACCOBAMS priorities, EEZ extension for the area and Maritime Spatial Planning Directive, and the urgent need for management plans, we suggest that the sampling strategy here presented is a cost-effective method to gather valuable data, to be used to improve cetacean habitat models in the area.

Spatial characteristics of observed precipitation fields: A catalog of summer storms in Arizona, Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessey, N. M.; Eagleson, P. S.; Qinliang, W.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

1986-01-01

The parameters of the conceptual model are evaluated from the analysis of eight years of summer rainstorm data from the dense raingage network in the Walnut Gulch catchment near Tucson, Arizona. The occurrence of measurable rain at any one of the 93 gages during a noon to noon day defined a storm. The total rainfall at each of the gages during a storm day constituted the data set for a single storm. The data are interpolated onto a fine grid and analyzed to obtain: an isohyetal plot at 2 mm intervals, the first three moments of point storm depth, the spatial correlation function, the spatial variance function, and the spatial distribution of the total storm depth. The description of the data analysis and the computer programs necessary to read the associated data tapes are presented.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

2015-08-15

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The application of GIS and RS for epidemics: a case study of the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in China in 2004-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shaobo; Lan, Guiwen; Zhu, Haiguo; Wen, Renqiang; Zhao, Qiansheng; Huang, Quanyi

2008-12-01

Because of their inherent advantages, Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are extremely useful for dealing with geographically referenced information. In the study of epidemics, most data are geographically referenced, which makes GIS and RS the perfect even necessary tools for processing, analysis, representation of epidemic data. Comprehensively considering the data requirements in the study of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) coupled with the quality of the existing remotely sensed data in terms of the resolution of space, time and spectra, the data sensed by MODIS are chosen and the relevant methods and procedures of data processing from RS and GIS for some environmental factors are proposed. Through using spatial analysis functions and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of GIS, some results of relationship between HPAI occurrences and these potential factors are presented. The role played by bird migration is also preliminarily illustrated with some operations such as visualization, overlapping etc. provided by GIS. Through the work of this paper, we conclude: Firstly, the migration of birds causes the spread of HPAI all over the country in 2004-2005. Secondly, the migration of birds is the reason why the spread of HPAI is perturbed. That is, for some classic communicable diseases, their spread exhibits obvious spatial diffusion process. However, the spread of HPAI breaks this general rule. We think leap diffusion and time lag are the probable reasons for this kind of phenomena. Potential distribution of HPAI viruses (corresponding to the distribution of flyways and putative risk sources) is not completely consistent with the occurrences of HPAI. For this phenomenon, we think, in addition to the flyways of birds, all kinds of geographical, climatic factors also have important effect on the occurrences of HPAI. Through the case study of HPAI, we can see that GIS and RS can play very important roles in the study of epidemics.

The occurrence, spatial distribution, and wave properties of hydrogen-, helium-, and oxygen-band EMIC waves observed by the Van Allen Probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikin, A.; Zhang, J.; Allen, R. C.; Smith, C. W.; Kistler, L. M.; Spence, H. E.; Torbert, R. B.; Kletzing, C.; Jordanova, V.

2014-12-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play an important role in the overall dynamics of the Earth's magnetosphere, including the energization and loss of particles. We perform a statistical study of EMIC waves detected by the Van Allen Probes mission to investigate their occurrence, spatial distribution, and properties (e.g., wave power, normal angle, and ellipticity). Magnetic field measurements from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) onboard Van Allen Probes are used to identify EMIC wave events from the beginning of the mission (September, 2012) to the present. EMIC waves are examined in hydrogen, helium and oxygen bands. So far, about 280 EMIC wave events have been identified over the three different bands. Preliminary results show that hydrogen-band EMIC waves have been primarily observed in the dusk sector, while helium-band EMIC waves have been observed in all Magnetic Local Times (MLTs). Particularly, the Van Allen Probes provide a better resolution of lower frequencies (0.2-0.9 Hz), within which oxygen-band EMIC waves can occur in the inner magnetosphere. This allows us to obtain better insight into the characteristics of this previously largely unavailable band of EMIC waves, and allows for comparisons amongst EMIC waves in different bands.

Ecology and geography of avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) transmission in the Middle East and northeastern Africa

PubMed Central

Williams, Richard AJ; Peterson, A Townsend

2009-01-01

Background The emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 ("HPAI-H5N1") has spread broadly in the past decade, and is now the focus of considerable concern. We tested the hypothesis that spatial distributions of HPAI-H5N1 cases are related consistently and predictably to coarse-scale environmental features in the Middle East and northeastern Africa. We used ecological niche models to relate virus occurrences to 8 km resolution digital data layers summarizing parameters of monthly surface reflectance and landform. Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas. Results In almost all tests, HPAI-H5N1 cases were indeed occurring under predictable sets of environmental conditions, generally predicted absent from areas with low NDVI values and minimal seasonal variation, and present in areas with a broad range of and appreciable seasonal variation in NDVI values. Although we documented significant predictive ability of our models, even between our study region and West Africa, case occurrences in the Arabian Peninsula appear to follow a distinct environmental regime. Conclusion Overall, we documented a variable environmental "fingerprint" for areas suitable for HPAI-H5N1 transmission. PMID:19619336

Human activity spaces and plague risks in three contrasting landscapes in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

PubMed

Hieronimo, Proches; Gulinck, Hubert; Kimaro, Didas N; Mulungu, Loth S; Kihupi, Nganga I; Msanya, Balthazar M; Leirs, Herwig; Deckers, Jozef A

2014-07-01

Since 1980 plague has been a human threat in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania. However, the spatial-temporal pattern of plague occurrence remains poorly understood. The main objective of this study was to gain understanding of human activity patterns in relation to spatial distribution of fleas in Lushoto District. Data were collected in three landscapes differing in plague incidence. Field survey coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) and physical sample collections were used to collect data in wet (April to June 2012) and dry (August to October 2012) seasons. Data analysis was done using GIS, one-way ANOVA and nonparametric statistical tools. The degree of spatial co-occurrence of potential disease vectors (fleas) and humans in Lushoto focus differs significantly (p ≤ 0.05) among the selected landscapes, and in both seasons. This trend gives a coarse indication of the possible association of the plague outbreaks and the human frequencies of contacting environments with fleas. The study suggests that plague surveillance and control programmes at landscape scale should consider the existence of plague vector contagion risk gradient from high to low incidence landscapes due to human presence and intensity of activities.

Muddy floods in Saxony: occurrence, damages and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arévalo, S. A.; Reichel, S.; Schindewolf, M.; Schmidt, J.

2012-04-01

A muddy flood is a natural hazard with small impact area. Usually a single event covers only a part of a street and some properties, in some cases it might affect up to a whole neighbourhood. Due to this small spatial extend the public awareness is generally low. On the other hand we know from random reports that in some areas, like the Saxon loess belt region, muddy floods do occur repeatedly. The damages caused by muddy floods range from mud covered streets to flooded cellars and houses. Although the awareness of muddy floods in Europe has increased during the last decade, there is still very few information about frequency, spatial extend and the related costs. There have been investigations of muddy flood occurrence in some European countries like England, France, Belgium, Poland and Slovakia, but there is no information available about the muddy flood occurrence in Germany. That is because German state departments do not usually register muddy floods and neither do insurance companies. The only institution that is almost always informed when muddy floods occur are local fire brigades. That is why in this investigation an enquiry of all fire brigades in the study area of the Saxon hilly loess region was performed. The aim was to gain first information about the general dimension of the problem, a temporal and spatial distribution as well as a first appraisal of costs. The obtained database of muddy floods will also serve for further investigation of the problem.

Co-Infestation and Spatial Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and Anastrepha spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Common Guava in the Eastern Amazon

PubMed Central

Deus, E. G.; Godoy, W. A. C.; Sousa, M. S. M.; Lopes, G. N.; Jesus-Barros, C. R.; Silva, J. G.; Adaime, R.

2016-01-01

Field infestation and spatial distribution of introduced Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock and native species of Anastrepha in common guavas [Psidium guajava (L.)] were investigated in the eastern Amazon. Fruit sampling was carried out in the municipalities of Calçoene and Oiapoque in the state of Amapá, Brazil. The frequency distribution of larvae in fruit was fitted to the negative binomial distribution. Anastrepha striata was more abundant in both sampled areas in comparison to Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) and B. carambolae. The frequency distribution analysis of adults revealed an aggregated pattern for B. carambolae as well as for A. fraterculus and Anastrepha striata Schiner, described by the negative binomial distribution. Although the populations of Anastrepha spp. may have suffered some impact due to the presence of B. carambolae, the results are still not robust enough to indicate effective reduction in the abundance of Anastrepha spp. caused by B. carambolae in a general sense. The high degree of aggregation observed for both species suggests interspecific co-occurrence with the simultaneous presence of both species in the analysed fruit. Moreover, a significant fraction of uninfested guavas also indicated absence of competitive displacement. PMID:27638949

Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Trainor, Anne M; Schmitz, Oswald J

2014-12-01

Community ecology involves studying the interdependence of species with each other and their environment to predict their geographical distribution and abundance. Modern species distribution analyses characterise species-environment dependency well, but offer only crude approximations of species interdependency. Typically, the dependency between focal species and other species is characterised using other species' point occurrences as spatial covariates to constrain the focal species' predicted range. This implicitly assumes that the strength of interdependency is homogeneous across space, which is not generally supported by analyses of species interactions. This discrepancy has an important bearing on the accuracy of inferences about habitat suitability for species. We introduce a framework that integrates principles from consumer-resource analyses, resource selection theory and species distribution modelling to enhance quantitative prediction of species geographical distributions. We show how to apply the framework using a case study of lynx and snowshoe hare interactions with each other and their environment. The analysis shows how the framework offers a spatially refined understanding of species distribution that is sensitive to nuances in biophysical attributes of the environment that determine the location and strength of species interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Ionospheric signatures of Lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, M.; Liu, J.

2003-12-01

The geostationary metrology satellite (GMS) monitors motions of thunderstorm cloud, while the lightning detection network (LDN) in Taiwan and the very high Frequency (VHF) radar in Chung-Li (25.0›XN, 121.2›XE) observed occurrences of lightning during May and July, 1997. Measurements from the digisonde portable sounder (DPS) at National Central University shows that lightning results in occurrence of the sporadic E-layer (Es), as well as increase and decrease of plasma density at the F2-peak and E-peak in the ionosphere, respectively. A network of ground-based GPS receivers is further used to monitor the spatial distribution of the ionospheric TEC. To explain the plasma density variations, a model is proposed.

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela

2011-01-01

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela

2011-01-01

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes. ??2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

[Spatial distribution of birth defects among children aged 0 to 5 years and its relationship with soil chemical elements in Chongqing].

PubMed

Dong, Yan; Zhong, Zhao-hui; Li, Hong; Li, Jie; Wang, Ying-xiong; Peng, Bin; Zhang, Mao-zhong; Huang, Qiao; Yan, Ju; Xu, Fei-long

2013-10-01

To explore the correlation between the incidence of birth defects and the contents of soil elements so as to provide a scientific basis for screening the related pathogenic factors that inducing birth defects for the development of related preventive and control strategies. MapInfo 7.0 software was used to draw the maps on spatial distribution regarding the incidence rates of birth defects and the contents of 11 chemical elements in soil in the 33 studied areas. Variables on the two maps were superposed for analyzing the spatial correlation. SAS 8.0 software was used to analyze single factor, multi-factors and principal components as well as to comprehensively evaluate the degrees of relevance. Different incidence rates of birth defects showed in the maps of spatial distribution presented certain degrees of negative correlation with anomalies of soil chemical elements, including copper, chrome, iodine, selenium, zinc while positively correlated with the levels of lead. Results from the principal component regression equation indicating that the contents of copper(0.002), arsenic(-0.07), cadmium(0.05), chrome (-0.001), zinc (0.001), iodine(-0.03), lead (0.08), fluorine(-0.002)might serve as important factors that related to the prevalence of birth defects. Through the study on spatial distribution, we noticed that the incidence rates of birth defects were related to the contents of copper, chrome, iodine, selenium, zinc, lead in soil while the contents of chrome, iodine and lead might lead to the occurrence of birth defects.

The Upper Mississippi River floodscape: spatial patterns of flood inundation and associated plant community distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeJager, Nathan R.; Rohweder, Jason J.; Yin, Yao; Hoy, Erin E.

2016-01-01

Questions How is the distribution of different plant communities associated with patterns of flood inundation across a large floodplain landscape? Location Thirty-eight thousand nine hundred and seventy hectare of floodplain, spanning 320 km of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Methods High-resolution elevation data (Lidar) and 30 yr of daily river stage data were integrated to produce a ‘floodscape’ map of growing season flood inundation duration. The distributions of 16 different remotely sensed plant communities were quantified along the gradient of flood duration. Results Models fitted to the cumulative frequency of occurrence of different vegetation types as a function of flood duration showed that most types exist along a continuum of flood-related occurrence. The diversity of community types was greatest at high elevations (0–10 d of flooding), where both upland and lowland community types were found, as well as at very low elevations (70–180 d of flooding), where a variety of lowland herbaceous communities were found. Intermediate elevations (20–60 d of flooding) tended to be dominated by floodplain forest and had the lowest diversity of community types. Conclusions Although variation in flood inundation is often considered to be the main driver of spatial patterns in floodplain plant communities, few studies have quantified flood–vegetation relationships at broad scales. Our results can be used to identify targets for restoration of historical hydrological regimes or better anticipate hydro-ecological effects of climate change at broad scales.

Spatial, Temporal, and Habitat-Related Variation in Abundance of Pelagic Fishes in the Gulf of Mexico: Potential Implications of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Rooker, Jay R.; Kitchens, Larissa L.; Dance, Michael A.; Wells, R. J. David; Falterman, Brett; Cornic, Maëlle

2013-01-01

Time-series data collected over a four-year period were used to characterize patterns of abundance for pelagic fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) before (2007–2009) and after (2010) the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Four numerically dominant pelagic species (blackfin tuna, blue marlin, dolphinfish, and sailfish) were included in our assessment, and larval density of each species was lower in 2010 than any of the three years prior to the oil spill, although larval abundance in 2010 was often statistically similar to other years surveyed. To assess potential overlap between suitable habitat of pelagic fish larvae and surface oil, generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed to evaluate the influence of ocean conditions on the abundance of larvae from 2007–2009. Explanatory variables from GAMs were then linked to environmental data from 2010 to predict the probability of occurrence for each species. The spatial extent of surface oil overlapped with early life habitat of each species, possibly indicating that the availability of high quality habitat was affected by the DH oil spill. Shifts in the distribution of spawning adults is another factor known to influence the abundance of larvae, and the spatial occurrence of a model pelagic predator (blue marlin) was characterized over the same four-year period using electronic tags. The spatial extent of oil coincided with areas used by adult blue marlin from 2007–2009, and the occurrence of blue marlin in areas impacted by the DH oil spill was lower in 2010 relative to pre-spill years. PMID:24130759

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-02-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Temporal distribution of floods and landslides in Portugal (1865-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Monica; Bateira, Carlos; Hermenegildo, Carlos; Soares, Laura; Pereira, Susana; Quaresma, Ivânia; Santos, Pedro

2013-04-01

Hydro-geomorphological events are the natural hazards that most affect Portugal. Under the DISASTER research project, was created a GIS database (DB) about floods and landslides that occurred in this country, from 1865 to 2010. The inventory of these processes was based on a systematic compilation of national and regional newspapers articles, focusing occurrences with direct consequences on the population, i.e., those that implied killed, injured, missing, evacuated or displaced people, independently of the number of affected and the economic value of damage. The main objective of this DB is to support the development of risk studies related with these events, analysing their spatial and temporal distribution, the susceptibility of the territories and the vulnerability of the exposed elements. It is essential for risk management, providing a decision support for spatial and emergency planning. This study aims to analyse the temporal rhythm of floods and landslides that occurred in the above mentioned period, as well as its evolutionary trend and the relationship between these processes and the precipitation, the main triggering factor of hydro-geomorphological events in Portugal mainland. The trends are analysed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) and Theil-Sen statistical tests (B), in order to estimate its magnitude. The results show that from the 1903 records integrated in the Disaster DB (in the 145 years under analysis), 85.2% of occurrences correspond to floods and 14.8% to landslides. Until 1935 the number of occurrences per year is less than 10 (except 1909), but after this date there was a significant increase of this value, mainly in the years of 1936, 1966/67, 1979, 1996 and 2001, with more than 50 occurrences/year. In the period between 1935 and 1975, the mean number of occurrences is 22.5/year, but between 1975-2010 it changes to 16.5. The results suggest the absence of a statistically significant increasing trend of occurrences, during all the analysed period. Instead, these processes seem to report a cyclical behaviour considering different time scales, evidenced also by the precipitation data, highlighting the period from 1935 to 1975, with the highest number of occurrences. In fact, the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean daily intensity (MDI) variables also seem to reveal a cyclic trend, corresponding the years with the highest number of occurrences to those with higher MAP and MDI values, although more prominent in the latter one (except in 1909), evidencing the influence that precipitation has on the floods and landslide processes.

Tree spatial structure, host composition and resource availability influence mirid density or black pod prevalence in cacao agroforests in Cameroon.

PubMed

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation.

Tree Spatial Structure, Host Composition and Resource Availability Influence Mirid Density or Black Pod Prevalence in Cacao Agroforests in Cameroon

PubMed Central

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation. PMID:25313514

SAS procedures for designing and analyzing sample surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stafford, Joshua D.; Reinecke, Kenneth J.; Kaminski, Richard M.

2003-01-01

Complex surveys often are necessary to estimate occurrence (or distribution), density, and abundance of plants and animals for purposes of re-search and conservation. Most scientists are familiar with simple random sampling, where sample units are selected from a population of interest (sampling frame) with equal probability. However, the goal of ecological surveys often is to make inferences about populations over large or complex spatial areas where organisms are not homogeneously distributed or sampling frames are in-convenient or impossible to construct. Candidate sampling strategies for such complex surveys include stratified,multistage, and adaptive sampling (Thompson 1992, Buckland 1994).

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Laituri, Melinda

2014-01-01

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

Clinal differentiation and putative hybridization in a contact zone of Pinus ponderosa and P. arizonica (Pinaceae).

PubMed

Epperson, B K; Telewski, F W; Plovanich-Jones, A E; Grimes, J E

2001-06-01

The widely distributed Pinus subsection Ponderosae is a species complex that has a transition zone among taxa in the southwestern United States. In southern Arizona and New Mexico at least two recognized taxa, Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum and Pinus arizonica or P. ponderosa var. arizonica, are known to coexist in close proximity. In this study, we report the existence of populations where the taxa are sympatric. One of the key characteristics distinguishing taxa is the number of needles per fascicle; P. ponderosa typically has three, P. arizonica has five. We examined the spatial distribution of needle-number types in a belt transect that covers a transition zone from nearly pure three-needle types at the top of Mount Lemmon to five-needle types downslope, in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona. The spatial distribution is inconsistent with there being both free interbreeding among types and selective neutrality of types. Trees with intermediate types, having combinations of three, four, and five needles and/or mean numbers of needles between 3.0 and 5.0, are spatially concentrated in the middle of the transition zone. The spatial distribution supports the occurrence of hybridization and introgression, and this is consistent with reported crossabilities of the types. The results suggest that selection is acting, either on needle number per se or on other traits of the ecotype with which it may be in linkage disequilibrium, to maintain the observed steep clinal differentiation.

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G.; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-01-01

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard’s historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km2 of current range and 21,173.7 km2 of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km2of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally. PMID:26638877

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-12-07

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard's historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km(2) of current range and 21,173.7 km(2) of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km(2)of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally.

Geological Mapping of Impact Melt Deposits at Lunar Complex Craters: New Insights into Morphological Diversity, Distribution and the Cratering Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhingra, D.; Head, J. W., III; Pieters, C. M.

2014-12-01

We have completed high resolution geological mapping of impact melt deposits at the young lunar complex craters (<1 billion years) Copernicus, Jackson and Tycho using data from recent missions. Crater floors being the largest repository of impact melt, we have mapped their morphological diversity expressed in terms of varied surface texture, albedo, character and occurrence of boulder units as well as relative differences in floor elevation. Examples of wall and rim impact melt units and their relation to floor units have also been mapped. Among the distinctive features of these impact melt deposits are: 1) Impact Melt Wave Fronts: These are extensive (sometimes several kilometers in length) and we have documented their occurrence and distribution in different parts of the crater floor at Jackson and Tycho. These features emphasize melt mobility and style of emplacement during the modification stage of the craters. 2) Variations in Floor Elevations: Spatially extensive and coherent sections of crater floors have different elevations at all the three craters. The observed elevation differences could be caused by subsidence due to cooling of melt and/or structural failure, together with a contribution from regional slope. 3) Melt-Covered Megablocks: We also observe large blocks/rock-fragments (megablocks) covered in impact melt, which could be sections of collapsed wall or in some cases, subdued sections of central peaks. 4) Melt-Covered Central Peaks: Impact melt has also been mapped on the central peaks but varies in spatial extent among the craters. The presence of melt on peaks must be taken into account when interpreting peak mineralogy as exposures of deeper crust. 5) Boulder Distribution: Interesting trends are observed in the distribution of boulder units of various sizes; some impact melt units have spatially extensive boulders, while boulder distribution is very scarce in other units on the floor. We interpret these distributions to be influenced by a) the differential collapse of the crater walls during the modification stage, and b) the amount of relative melt volume retained in different parts of the crater floor. These observations provide important documentation of the morphological diversity and better understanding of the emplacement and final distribution of impact melt deposits.

Development of the first georeferenced map of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) spp. in Mexico from 1970 to date and prediction of its spatial distribution.

PubMed

Alcala-Canto, Yazmin; Figueroa-Castillo, Juan Antonio; Ibarra-Velarde, Froylán; Vera-Montenegro, Yolanda; Cervantes-Valencia, María Eugenia; Salem, Abdelfattah Z M; Cuéllar-Ordaz, Jorge Alfredo

2018-05-07

The tick genus Ripicephalus (Boophilus), particularly R. microplus, is one of the most important ectoparasites that affects livestock health and considered an epidemiological risk because it causes significant economic losses due, mainly, to restrictions in the export of infested animals to several countries. Its spatial distribution has been tied to environmental factors, mainly warm temperatures and high relative humidity. In this work, we integrated a dataset consisting of 5843 records of Rhipicephalus spp., in Mexico covering close to 50 years to know which environmental variables mostly influence this ticks' distribution. Occurrences were georeferenced using the software DIVA-GIS and the potential current distribution was modelled using the maximum entropy method (Maxent). The algorithm generated a map of high predictive capability (Area under the curve = 0.942), providing the various contribution and permutation importance of the tested variables. Precipitation seasonality, particularly in March, and isothermality were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the probability of spatial distribution of Rhipicephalus spp. in Mexico (15.7%, 36.0% and 11.1%, respectively). Our findings demonstrate that Rhipicephalus has colonized Mexico widely, including areas characterized by different types of climate. We conclude that the Maxent distribution model using Rhipicephalus records and a set of environmental variables can predict the extent of the tick range in this country, information that should support the development of integrated control strategies.

Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

PubMed

Gilbert, M; Aktas, S; Mohammed, H; Roeder, P; Sumption, K; Tufan, M; Slingenbergh, J

2005-06-01

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed according to serotype groups and is discussed in relation to their differential affinity to cattle and small ruminant hosts.

Occurrence, Distribution, and Accumulation of Pesticides in Exterior Residential Areas.

PubMed

Jiang, Weiying; Conkle, Jeremy L; Luo, Yuzhou; Li, Juying; Xu, Karen; Gan, Jay

2016-12-06

Pesticides are commonly applied around residential homes, but their occurrence on exterior surfaces (e.g., pavement) has not been thoroughly evaluated. We collected 360 dust samples from curbside gutters, sidewalks, and street surfaces at 40 houses in southern California to evaluate pesticide occurrence on urban paved surfaces as well as their spatial and temporal distributions. Pesticides and select degradates were ubiquitously detected in dust, with the median concentration of total target analytes at 85 μg kg -1 . A total of 75% of samples contained at least five pesticides. As a result of recurring pesticide applications, concentrations increased throughout the summer. The pyrethroids bifenthrin and permethrin accounted for 55% of total pesticides detected in the dust. The highest concentrations in dust were found on the sidewalk and in the gutter. Relative to indoor environments, human exposure risk to pesticides on paved surfaces was estimated to be lower, with the highest potential oral and dermal exposure predicted to be 38 ng day -1 for permethrin. The ubiquitous detection of pesticides on residential outdoor surfaces and the fact that the exterior concentrations did not correlate to the indoor areas highlight the necessity to measure pesticides in both indoor and outdoor areas for complete residential pesticide risk assessment.

A spatial analysis of urban transit accidents assisted by Emergency Mobile Care Services: an analysis of space and time.

PubMed

Mendonça, Marcela Franklin Salvador de; Silva, Amanda Priscila de Santana Cabral; Castro, Claudia Cristina Lima de

2017-01-01

Urban transit accident are a global public health problem. The objective of this study was to describe the profile of the victims and the occurrences of urban transit accidents attended to by emergency mobile care services (Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência- SAMU) in Recife, and their distribution based on spatial analysis. An ecological study, developed through secondary data from emergency mobile care services in Recife, referring to the total number of occurrences of urban transit accidents attended to from January 1 to June 30, 2015. The spatial analysis was performed using the Moran index. Basic support units performed most of the emergency services (89.2%). Among the victims, there was a predominance of males (76.8%) and an age group of 20 - 29 years old (31.5%). Collisions were responsible for 59.9% of the transit accidents, and motorcycles for 61.6% of the accidents among all means of transportation. Friday was the day that showed the highest risk for treatment, and there was a concentration of events between 6:00 am - 8:59am and 6:00pm - 8:59pm. The MoranMap identified critical areas where calls came from traffic accidents during the period analyzed. The records of the mobile service from the spatial analysis are an important source of information for health surveillance. The spatial analysis of urban transit accidents identified regions with a positive spatial correlation, providing subsidies to the logistical planning of emergency mobile care services. This study is groundbreaking in that it offers such information about the region.

Co-occurrence Patterns of the Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti and Aedes mediovitattus, a Dengue Competent Mosquito in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Little, Eliza; Barrera, Roberto; Seto, Karen C.; Diuk-Wasser, Maria

2015-01-01

Aedes aegypti is implicated in dengue transmission in tropical and subtropical urban areas around the world. Ae. aegypti populations are controlled through integrative vector management. However, the efficacy of vector control may be undermined by the presence of alternative, competent species. In Puerto Rico, a native mosquito, Ae. mediovittatus, is a competent dengue vector in laboratory settings and spatially overlaps with Ae. aegypti. It has been proposed that Ae. mediovittatus may act as a dengue reservoir during inter-epidemic periods, perpetuating endemic dengue transmission in rural Puerto Rico. Dengue transmission dynamics may therefore be influenced by the spatial overlap of Ae. mediovittatus, Ae. aegypti, dengue viruses, and humans. We take a landscape epidemiology approach to examine the association between landscape composition and configuration and the distribution of each of these Aedes species and their co-occurrence. We used remotely sensed imagery from a newly launched satellite to map landscape features at very high spatial resolution. We found that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is positively predicted by urban density and by the number of tree patches, Ae. mediovittatus is positively predicted by the number of tree patches, but negatively predicted by large contiguous urban areas, and both species are predicted by urban density and the number of tree patches. This analysis provides evidence that landscape composition and configuration is a surrogate for mosquito community composition, and suggests that mapping landscape structure can be used to inform vector control efforts as well as to inform urban planning. PMID:21989642

Species-driven phases and increasing structure in early-successional plant communities.

PubMed

Zaplata, Markus K; Winter, Susanne; Fischer, Anton; Kollmann, Johannes; Ulrich, Werner

2013-01-01

Successional phases describe changes in ecological communities that proceed in steps rather than continuously. Despite their importance for the understanding of ecosystem development, there still exists no reliable definition of phases and no quantitative measure of phase transitions. In order to obtain these data, we investigated primary succession in an artificial catchment (6 ha) in eastern Germany over a period of 6 years. The data set consists of records of plant species and their cover values, and initial substrate properties, both from plots in a regular grid (20 m × 20 m) suitable for spatial data analysis. Community assembly was studied by analyses of species co-occurrence and nestedness. Additionally, we correlated lognormal and log series distributions of species abundance to each community. We here introduce a new general method for detection of successional phases based on the degree of transient spatial homogeneity in the study system. Spatially coherent vegetation patterns revealed nonoverlapping partitions within this sequence of primary succession and were characterized as two distinct ecological phases. Patterns of species co-occurrence were increasingly less random, and hence the importance of demographic stochasticity and neutral community assembly decreased during the study period. Our findings highlight the spatial dimension of successional phases and quantify the degree of change between these steps. They are an element for advancing a more reliable terminology of ecological successions.

Evapotranspiration and runoff from large land areas: Land surface hydrology for atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

A land surface hydrology parameterization for use in atmospheric GCM's is presented. The parameterization incorporates subgrid scale variability in topography, soils, soil moisture and precipitation. The framework of the model is the statistical distribution of a topography-soils index, which controls the local water balance fluxes, and is therefore taken to represent the large land area. Spatially variable water balance fluxes are integrated with respect to the topography-soils index to yield our large topography-soils distribution, and interval responses are weighted by the probability of occurrence of the interval. Grid square averaged land surface fluxes result. The model functions independently as a macroscale water balance model. Runoff ratio and evapotranspiration efficiency parameterizations are derived and are shown to depend on the spatial variability of the above mentioned properties and processes, as well as the dynamics of land surface-atmosphere interactions.

Distribution of indoor radon concentrations in Pennsylvania, 1990-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, Eliza L.

2013-01-01

Median indoor radon concentrations aggregated according to geologic units and hydrogeologic settings are useful for drawing general conclusions about the occurrence of indoor radon in specific geologic units and hydrogeologic settings, but the associated data and maps have limitations. The aggregated indoor radon data have testing and spatial accuracy limitations due to lack of available information regarding testing conditions and the imprecision of geocoded test locations. In addition, the associated data describing geologic units and hydrogeologic settings have spatial and interpretation accuracy limitations, which are a result of using statewide data to define conditions at test locations and geologic data that represent a broad interpretation of geologic units across the State. As a result, indoor air radon concentration distributions are not proposed for use in predicting individual concentrations at specific sites nor for use as a decision-making tool for property owners to decide whether to test for indoor radon concentrations at specific property locations.

Complex polarization-phase and spatial-frequency selections of laser images of blood-plasma films in diagnostics of changes in their polycrystalline structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushenko, Yu. A.; Angelskii, P. O.; Dubolazov, A. V.; Karachevtsev, A. O.; Sidor, M. I.; Mintser, O. P.; Oleinichenko, B. P.; Bizer, L. I.

2013-10-01

We present a theoretical formalism of correlation phase analysis of laser images of human blood plasma with spatial-frequency selection of manifestations of mechanisms of linear and circular birefringence of albumin and globulin polycrystalline networks. Comparative results of the measurement of coordinate distributions of the correlation parameter—the modulus of the degree of local correlation of amplitudes—of laser images of blood plasma taken from patients of three groups—healthy patients (donors), rheumatoid-arthritis patients, and breast-cancer patients—are presented. We investigate values and ranges of change of statistical (the first to fourth statistical moments), correlation (excess of autocorrelation functions), and fractal (slopes of approximating curves and dispersion of extrema of logarithmic dependences of power spectra) parameters of coordinate distributions of the degree of local correlation of amplitudes. Objective criteria for diagnostics of occurrence and differentiation of inflammatory and oncological states are determined.

Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicted Probability Map To Visualize The Influence Of Socio-Economic Factors On Breast Cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhu, B.; Ashok, N. C.; Balasubramanian, S.

2014-11-01

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to develop statistical model that can predict the probability of breast cancer in Southern Karnataka using the breast cancer occurrence data during 2007-2011. Independent socio-economic variables describing the breast cancer occurrence like age, education, occupation, parity, type of family, health insurance coverage, residential locality and socioeconomic status of each case was obtained. The models were developed as follows: i) Spatial visualization of the Urban- rural distribution of breast cancer cases that were obtained from the Bharat Hospital and Institute of Oncology. ii) Socio-economic risk factors describing the breast cancer occurrences were complied for each case. These data were then analysed using multinomial logistic regression analysis in a SPSS statistical software and relations between the occurrence of breast cancer across the socio-economic status and the influence of other socio-economic variables were evaluated and multinomial logistic regression models were constructed. iii) the model that best predicted the occurrence of breast cancer were identified. This multivariate logistic regression model has been entered into a geographic information system and maps showing the predicted probability of breast cancer occurrence in Southern Karnataka was created. This study demonstrates that Multinomial logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of breast cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka.

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia longipalpis in a subtropical city with a recently established visceral leishmaniasis transmission cycle, Argentina.

PubMed

Berrozpe, Pablo; Lamattina, Daniela; Santini, María Soledad; Araujo, Analía Vanesa; Utgés, María Eugenia; Salomón, Oscar Daniel

2017-10-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an endemic disease in northeastern Argentina including the Corrientes province, where the presence of the vector and canine cases of VL were recently confirmed in December 2008. The objective of this study was to assess the modelling of micro- and macro-habitat variables to evaluate the urban environmental suitability for the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis presence and abundance in an urban scenario. Sampling of 45 sites distributed throughout Corrientes city (Argentina) was carried out using REDILA-BL minilight traps in December 2013. The sampled specimens were identified according to methods described by Galati (2003). The analysis of variables derived from the processing of satellite images (macro-habitat variables) and from the entomological sampling and surveys (micro-habitat variables) was performed using the statistical software R. Three generalised linear models were constructed composed of micro- and macro-habitat variables to explain the spatial distribution of the abundance of Lu. longipalpis and one composed of micro-habitat variables to explain the occurrence of the vector. A total of 609 phlebotominae belonging to five species were collected, of which 56% were Lu. longipalpis. In addition, the presence of Nyssomyia neivai and Migonemya migonei, which are vectors of tegumentary leishmaniasis, were also documented and represented 34.81% and 6.74% of the collections, respectively. The explanatory variable normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) described the abundance distribution, whereas the presence of farmyard animals was important for explaining both the abundance and the occurrence of the vector. The results contribute to the identification of variables that can be used to establish priority areas for entomological surveillance and provide an efficient transfer tool for the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases.

Comparative Epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnamese Live Bird Markets: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Distribution and Risk Factors.

PubMed

Mellor, Kate C; Meyer, Anne; Elkholly, Doaa A; Fournié, Guillaume; Long, Pham T; Inui, Ken; Padungtod, Pawin; Gilbert, Marius; Newman, Scott H; Vergne, Timothée; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Stevens, Kim B

2018-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been circulating in Vietnam since 2003, whilst outbreaks of HPAI H5N6 virus are more recent, having only been reported since 2014. Although the spatial distribution of H5N1 outbreaks and risk factors for virus occurrence has been extensively studied, there have been no comparative studies for H5N6. Data collected through active surveillance of Vietnamese live bird markets (LBMs) between 2011 and 2015 were used to explore and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of H5N1- and H5N6-positive LBMs. Conditional autoregressive models were developed to quantify spatiotemporal associations between agroecological factors and the two HPAI strains using the same set of predictor variables. Unlike H5N1, which exhibited a strong north-south divide, with repeated occurrence in the extreme south of a cluster of high-risk provinces, H5N6 was homogeneously distributed throughout Vietnam. Similarly, different agroecological factors were associated with each strain. Sample collection in the months of January and February and higher average maximum temperature were associated with higher likelihood of H5N1-positive market-day status. The likelihood of market days being positive for H5N6 increased with decreased river density, and with successive Rounds of data collection. This study highlights marked differences in spatial patterns and risk factors for H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnam, suggesting the need for tailored surveillance and control approaches.

Comparative Epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnamese Live Bird Markets: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Distribution and Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Mellor, Kate C.; Meyer, Anne; Elkholly, Doaa A.; Fournié, Guillaume; Long, Pham T.; Inui, Ken; Padungtod, Pawin; Gilbert, Marius; Newman, Scott H.; Vergne, Timothée; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Stevens, Kim B.

2018-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been circulating in Vietnam since 2003, whilst outbreaks of HPAI H5N6 virus are more recent, having only been reported since 2014. Although the spatial distribution of H5N1 outbreaks and risk factors for virus occurrence has been extensively studied, there have been no comparative studies for H5N6. Data collected through active surveillance of Vietnamese live bird markets (LBMs) between 2011 and 2015 were used to explore and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of H5N1- and H5N6-positive LBMs. Conditional autoregressive models were developed to quantify spatiotemporal associations between agroecological factors and the two HPAI strains using the same set of predictor variables. Unlike H5N1, which exhibited a strong north–south divide, with repeated occurrence in the extreme south of a cluster of high-risk provinces, H5N6 was homogeneously distributed throughout Vietnam. Similarly, different agroecological factors were associated with each strain. Sample collection in the months of January and February and higher average maximum temperature were associated with higher likelihood of H5N1-positive market-day status. The likelihood of market days being positive for H5N6 increased with decreased river density, and with successive Rounds of data collection. This study highlights marked differences in spatial patterns and risk factors for H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnam, suggesting the need for tailored surveillance and control approaches. PMID:29675418

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia longipalpis in a subtropical city with a recently established visceral leishmaniasis transmission cycle, Argentina

PubMed Central

Berrozpe, Pablo; Lamattina, Daniela; Santini, María Soledad; Araujo, Analía Vanesa; Utgés, María Eugenia; Salomón, Oscar Daniel

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an endemic disease in northeastern Argentina including the Corrientes province, where the presence of the vector and canine cases of VL were recently confirmed in December 2008. OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to assess the modelling of micro- and macro-habitat variables to evaluate the urban environmental suitability for the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis presence and abundance in an urban scenario. METHODS Sampling of 45 sites distributed throughout Corrientes city (Argentina) was carried out using REDILA-BL minilight traps in December 2013. The sampled specimens were identified according to methods described by Galati (2003). The analysis of variables derived from the processing of satellite images (macro-habitat variables) and from the entomological sampling and surveys (micro-habitat variables) was performed using the statistical software R. Three generalised linear models were constructed composed of micro- and macro-habitat variables to explain the spatial distribution of the abundance of Lu. longipalpis and one composed of micro-habitat variables to explain the occurrence of the vector. FINDINGS A total of 609 phlebotominae belonging to five species were collected, of which 56% were Lu. longipalpis. In addition, the presence of Nyssomyia neivai and Migonemya migonei, which are vectors of tegumentary leishmaniasis, were also documented and represented 34.81% and 6.74% of the collections, respectively. The explanatory variable normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) described the abundance distribution, whereas the presence of farmyard animals was important for explaining both the abundance and the occurrence of the vector. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The results contribute to the identification of variables that can be used to establish priority areas for entomological surveillance and provide an efficient transfer tool for the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases. PMID:28953995

Predicting the distribution pattern of small carnivores in response to environmental factors in the Western Ghats.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Qureshi, Qamar; Sankar, Kalyanasundaram

2013-01-01

Due to their secretive habits, predicting the pattern of spatial distribution of small carnivores has been typically challenging, yet for conservation management it is essential to understand the association between this group of animals and environmental factors. We applied maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to build distribution models and identify environmental predictors including bioclimatic variables, forest and land cover type, topography, vegetation index and anthropogenic variables for six small carnivore species in Mudumalai Tiger Reserve. Species occurrence records were collated from camera-traps and vehicle transects during the years 2010 and 2011. We used the average training gain from forty model runs for each species to select the best set of predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic plot (ROC) ranged from 0.81 to 0.93 for the training data and 0.72 to 0.87 for the test data. In habitat models for F. chaus, P. hermaphroditus, and H. smithii "distance to village" and precipitation of the warmest quarter emerged as some of the most important variables. "Distance to village" and aspect were important for V. indica while "distance to village" and precipitation of the coldest quarter were significant for H. vitticollis. "Distance to village", precipitation of the warmest quarter and land cover were influential variables in the distribution of H. edwardsii. The map of predicted probabilities of occurrence showed potentially suitable habitats accounting for 46 km(2) of the reserve for F. chaus, 62 km(2) for V. indica, 30 km(2) for P. hermaphroditus, 63 km(2) for H. vitticollis, 45 km(2) for H. smithii and 28 km(2) for H. edwardsii. Habitat heterogeneity driven by the east-west climatic gradient was correlated with the spatial distribution of small carnivores. This study exemplifies the usefulness of modeling small carnivore distribution to prioritize and direct conservation planning for habitat specialists in southern India.

Predicting the Distribution Pattern of Small Carnivores in Response to Environmental Factors in the Western Ghats

PubMed Central

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Qureshi, Qamar; Sankar, Kalyanasundaram

2013-01-01

Due to their secretive habits, predicting the pattern of spatial distribution of small carnivores has been typically challenging, yet for conservation management it is essential to understand the association between this group of animals and environmental factors. We applied maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to build distribution models and identify environmental predictors including bioclimatic variables, forest and land cover type, topography, vegetation index and anthropogenic variables for six small carnivore species in Mudumalai Tiger Reserve. Species occurrence records were collated from camera-traps and vehicle transects during the years 2010 and 2011. We used the average training gain from forty model runs for each species to select the best set of predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic plot (ROC) ranged from 0.81 to 0.93 for the training data and 0.72 to 0.87 for the test data. In habitat models for F. chaus, P. hermaphroditus, and H. smithii “distance to village” and precipitation of the warmest quarter emerged as some of the most important variables. “Distance to village” and aspect were important for V. indica while “distance to village” and precipitation of the coldest quarter were significant for H. vitticollis. “Distance to village”, precipitation of the warmest quarter and land cover were influential variables in the distribution of H. edwardsii. The map of predicted probabilities of occurrence showed potentially suitable habitats accounting for 46 km2 of the reserve for F. chaus, 62 km2 for V. indica, 30 km2 for P. hermaphroditus, 63 km2 for H. vitticollis, 45 km2 for H. smithii and 28 km2 for H. edwardsii. Habitat heterogeneity driven by the east-west climatic gradient was correlated with the spatial distribution of small carnivores. This study exemplifies the usefulness of modeling small carnivore distribution to prioritize and direct conservation planning for habitat specialists in southern India. PMID:24244470

Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaMotte, A.E.; Greene, E.A.

2007-01-01

Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Shallow plumbing systems inferred from spatial analysis of pockmark arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, A.; Cartwright, J. A.; Andersen, E.

2016-12-01

This study describes and analyses an extraordinary array of pockmarks at the modern seabed of the Lower Congo Basin (offshore Angola), in order to understand the fluid migration routes and shallow plumbing system of the area. The 3D seismic visualization of feeding conduits (pipes) allowed the identification of the source interval for the fluids expelled during pockmark formation. Spatial statistics are used to show the relationship between the underlying (polarised) polygonal fault (PPFs) patterns and seabed pockmarks distributions. Our results show PPFs control the linear arrangement of pockmarks and feeder pipes along fault strike, but faults do not act as conduits. Spatial statistics also revealed pockmark occurrence is not considered to be random, especially at short distances to nearest neighbours (<200m) where anti-clustering distributions suggest the presence of an exclusion zone around each pockmark in which no other pockmark will form. The results of this study are relevant for the understanding of shallow fluid plumbing systems in offshore settings, with implications on our current knowledge of overall fluid flow systems in hydrocarbon-rich continental margins.

Spatial Segregation between Invasive and Native Commensal Rodents in an Urban Environment: A Case Study in Niamey, Niger

PubMed Central

Garba, Madougou; Dalecky, Ambroise; Kadaoure, Ibrahima; Kane, Mamadou; Hima, Karmadine; Veran, Sophie; Gagare, Sama; Gauthier, Philippe; Tatard, Caroline; Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Dobigny, Gauthier

2014-01-01

Invasive rodents have been responsible for the diffusion worldwide of many zoonotic agents, thus representing major threats for public health. Cities are important hubs for people and goods exchange and are thus expected to play a pivotal role in invasive commensal rodent dissemination. Yet, data about urban rodents' ecology, especially invasive vs. native species interactions, are dramatically scarce. Here, we provide results of an extensive survey of urban rodents conducted in Niamey, Niger, depicting the early stages of rodent bioinvasions within a city. We explore the species-specific spatial distributions throughout the city using contrasted approaches, namely field sampling, co-occurrence analysis, occupancy modelling and indicator geostatistics. We show that (i) two species (i.e. rural-like vs. truly commensal) assemblages can be identified, and that (ii) within commensal rodents, invasive (Rattus rattus and Mus musculus) and native (Mastomys natalensis) species are spatially segregated. Moreover, several pieces of arguments tend to suggest that these exclusive distributions reflect an ongoing native-to-invasive species turn over. The underlying processes as well as the possible consequences for humans are discussed. PMID:25379785

Longitudinal study on the temporal and micro-spatial distribution of Galba truncatula in four farms in Belgium as a base for small-scale risk mapping of Fasciola hepatica.

PubMed

Charlier, Johannes; Soenen, Karen; De Roeck, Els; Hantson, Wouter; Ducheyne, Els; Van Coillie, Frieke; De Wulf, Robert; Hendrickx, Guy; Vercruysse, Jozef

2014-11-26

The trematode parasite Fasciola hepatica causes important economic losses in ruminants worldwide. Current spatial distribution models do not provide sufficient detail to support farm-specific control strategies. A technology to reliably assess the spatial distribution of intermediate host snail habitats on farms would be a major step forward to this respect. The aim of this study was to conduct a longitudinal field survey in Flanders (Belgium) to (i) characterise suitable small water bodies (SWB) for Galba truncatula and (ii) describe the population dynamics of G. truncatula. Four F. hepatica-infected farms from two distinct agricultural regions were examined for the abundance of G. truncatula from the beginning (April 2012) until the end (November 2012) of the grazing season. Per farm, 12 to 18 SWB were selected for monthly examination, using a 10 m transect analysis. Observations on G. truncatula abundance were coupled with meteorological and (micro-)environmental factors and the within-herd prevalence of F. hepatica using simple comparison or negative binomial regression models. A total of 54 examined SWB were classified as a pond, ditch, trench, furrow or moist area. G. truncatula abundance was significantly associated with SWB-type, region and total monthly precipitation, but not with monthly temperature. The clear differences in G. truncatula abundance between the 2 studied regions did not result in comparable differences in F. hepatica prevalence in the cattle. Exploration of the relationship of G. truncatula abundance with (micro)-environmental variables revealed a positive association with soil and water pH and the occurrence of Ranunculus sp. and a negative association with mowed pastures, water temperature and presence of reed-like plant species. Farm-level predictions of G. truncatula risk and subsequent risk for F. hepatica occurrence would require a rainfall, soil type (representing the agricultural region) and SWB layer in a geographic information system. While rainfall and soil type information is easily accessible, the recent advances in very high spatial resolution cameras carried on board of satellites, planes or drones should allow the delineation of SWBs in the future.

Assessing Spectral Evidence of Aqueous Activity in Two Putative Martian Paleolakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roush, Ted L.; Marzo, Giuseppe A.; Fonti, Sergio; Orofino, Vicenzo; Blanco, Armando; Gross, Christoph; Wendt, Lorenz

2011-01-01

We evaluate the evidence for the presence of mineral spectral signatures indicative of the past presence of water at two putative paleolakes on Mars using observations by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Compact Reconnaissance Image Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM). CRISM spectra of both sites are consistent with laboratory spectra of Mg-rich phyllosilicates. Our analysis represents the first detailed evaluation of these locations. The spatial occurrence and association with topographic features within the craters is distinctly different for the two sites. The occurrence of these minerals supports the conclusion that water was once active in the areas sampled by these craters. The distribution of the phyllosilicates in Luqa does not provide distinctive evidence for the presence of a previous standing body of water and is consistent with either impact emplacement or post-impact alteration. For Cankuzo, the phyllosilicate distribution provides evidence of a layer in the crater wall indicative of aqueous activity, but does not require a paleolake.

Estimating neighborhood variability with a binary comparison matrix.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, D.L.

1985-01-01

A technique which utilizes a binary comparison matrix has been developed to implement a neighborhood function for a raster format data base. The technique assigns an index value to the center pixel of 3- by 3-pixel neighborhoods. The binary comparison matrix provides additional information not found in two other neighborhood variability statistics; the function is sensitive to both the number of classes within the neighborhood and the frequency of pixel occurrence in each of the classes. Application of the function to a spatial data base from the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, demonstrates 1) the numerical distribution of the index values, and 2) the spatial patterns exhibited by the numerical values. -Author

The Use of a Predictive Habitat Model and a Fuzzy Logic Approach for Marine Management and Planning

PubMed Central

Hattab, Tarek; Ben Rais Lasram, Frida; Albouy, Camille; Sammari, Chérif; Romdhane, Mohamed Salah; Cury, Philippe; Leprieur, Fabien; Le Loc’h, François

2013-01-01

Bottom trawl survey data are commonly used as a sampling technique to assess the spatial distribution of commercial species. However, this sampling technique does not always correctly detect a species even when it is present, and this can create significant limitations when fitting species distribution models. In this study, we aim to test the relevance of a mixed methodological approach that combines presence-only and presence-absence distribution models. We illustrate this approach using bottom trawl survey data to model the spatial distributions of 27 commercially targeted marine species. We use an environmentally- and geographically-weighted method to simulate pseudo-absence data. The species distributions are modelled using regression kriging, a technique that explicitly incorporates spatial dependence into predictions. Model outputs are then used to identify areas that met the conservation targets for the deployment of artificial anti-trawling reefs. To achieve this, we propose the use of a fuzzy logic framework that accounts for the uncertainty associated with different model predictions. For each species, the predictive accuracy of the model is classified as ‘high’. A better result is observed when a large number of occurrences are used to develop the model. The map resulting from the fuzzy overlay shows that three main areas have a high level of agreement with the conservation criteria. These results align with expert opinion, confirming the relevance of the proposed methodology in this study. PMID:24146867

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2011-04-01

Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of 10%, while there was a > 10% probability of human-wildlife encounters on 67% of the remaining area of suitable wintering habitat. Only 23% of the wintering habitat was thus free of anthropogenic disturbance. By identifying zones of potential conflict, while rating its relative intensity, our model provides a powerful tool to delineate and prioritize areas where wildlife winter refuges and visitor steering measures should be implemented.

Spatial Distribution and Semiannual Variation of Cold-Dense Plasma Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Shichen; Shi, Quanqi; Tian, Anmin; Nowada, Motoharu; Degeling, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xu-Zhi; Zong, Qiu-Gang; Rae, I. Jonathan; Fu, Suiyan; Zhang, Hui; Pu, Zuyin; Fazakerly, Andrew N.

2018-01-01

The cold-dense plasma sheet (CDPS) plays an important role in the entry process of the solar wind plasma into the magnetosphere. Investigating the seasonal variation of CDPS occurrences will help us better understand the long-term variation of plasma exchange between the solar wind and magnetosphere, but any seasonal variation of CDPS occurrences has not yet been reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the seasonal variation of the occurrence rate of CDPS using Geotail data from 1996 to 2015 and find a semiannual variation of the CDPS occurrences. Given the higher probability of solar wind entry under stronger northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, 20 years of IMF data (1996-2015) are used to investigate the seasonal variation of IMF Bz under northward IMF conditions. We find a semiannual variation of IMF Bz, which is consistent with the Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect. We therefore suggest that the semiannual variation of CDPS may be related to the R-M effect.

Mapping the Distribution of Anthrax in Mainland China, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Chen, Wan-Jun; Lai, Sheng-Jie; Yang, Yang; Liu, Kun; Li, Xin-Lou; Yao, Hong-Wu; Li, Yu; Zhou, Hang; Wang, Li-Ping; Mu, Di; Yin, Wen-Wu; Fang, Li-Qun; Yu, Hong-Jie; Cao, Wu-Chun

2016-04-01

Anthrax, a global re-emerging zoonotic disease in recent years is enzootic in mainland China. Despite its significance to the public health, spatiotemporal distributions of the disease in human and livestock and its potential driving factors remain poorly understood. Using the national surveillance data of human and livestock anthrax from 2005 to 2013, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological study and risk assessment of anthrax in mainland China. The potential determinants for the temporal and spatial distributions of human anthrax were also explored. We found that the majority of human anthrax cases were located in six provinces in western and northeastern China, and five clustering areas with higher incidences were identified. The disease mostly peaked in July or August, and males aged 30-49 years had higher incidence than other subgroups. Monthly incidence of human anthrax was positively correlated with monthly average temperature, relative humidity and monthly accumulative rainfall with lags of 0-2 months. A boosted regression trees (BRT) model at the county level reveals that densities of cattle, sheep and human, coverage of meadow, coverage of typical grassland, elevation, coverage of topsoil with pH > 6.1, concentration of organic carbon in topsoil, and the meteorological factors have contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of the disease. The model-predicted probability of occurrence of human cases in mainland China was mapped at the county level. Anthrax in China was characterized by significant seasonality and spatial clustering. The spatial distribution of human anthrax was largely driven by livestock husbandry, human density, land cover, elevation, topsoil features and climate. Enhanced surveillance and intervention for livestock and human anthrax in the high-risk regions, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, is the key to the prevention of human infections.

Mapping the Distribution of Anthrax in Mainland China, 2005–2013

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Liu, Kun; Li, Xin-Lou; Yao, Hong-Wu; Li, Yu; Zhou, Hang; Wang, Li-Ping; Mu, Di; Yin, Wen-Wu; Fang, Li-Qun; Yu, Hong-Jie; Cao, Wu-Chun

2016-01-01

Background Anthrax, a global re-emerging zoonotic disease in recent years is enzootic in mainland China. Despite its significance to the public health, spatiotemporal distributions of the disease in human and livestock and its potential driving factors remain poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings Using the national surveillance data of human and livestock anthrax from 2005 to 2013, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological study and risk assessment of anthrax in mainland China. The potential determinants for the temporal and spatial distributions of human anthrax were also explored. We found that the majority of human anthrax cases were located in six provinces in western and northeastern China, and five clustering areas with higher incidences were identified. The disease mostly peaked in July or August, and males aged 30–49 years had higher incidence than other subgroups. Monthly incidence of human anthrax was positively correlated with monthly average temperature, relative humidity and monthly accumulative rainfall with lags of 0–2 months. A boosted regression trees (BRT) model at the county level reveals that densities of cattle, sheep and human, coverage of meadow, coverage of typical grassland, elevation, coverage of topsoil with pH > 6.1, concentration of organic carbon in topsoil, and the meteorological factors have contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of the disease. The model-predicted probability of occurrence of human cases in mainland China was mapped at the county level. Conclusions/Significance Anthrax in China was characterized by significant seasonality and spatial clustering. The spatial distribution of human anthrax was largely driven by livestock husbandry, human density, land cover, elevation, topsoil features and climate. Enhanced surveillance and intervention for livestock and human anthrax in the high-risk regions, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, is the key to the prevention of human infections. PMID:27097318

Application of geographically-weighted regression analysis to assess risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site.

PubMed

Ndiath, Mansour M; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules F; Bathiery, Ousmane; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Babacar

2015-11-18

In Senegal, considerable efforts have been made to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality during the last decade. This resulted in a marked decrease of malaria cases. With the decline of malaria cases, transmission has become sparse in most Senegalese health districts. This study investigated malaria hotspots in Keur Soce sites by using geographically-weighted regression. Because of the occurrence of hotspots, spatial modelling of malaria cases could have a considerable effect in disease surveillance. This study explored and analysed the spatial relationships between malaria occurrence and socio-economic and environmental factors in small communities in Keur Soce, Senegal, using 6 months passive surveillance. Geographically-weighted regression was used to explore the spatial variability of relationships between malaria incidence or persistence and the selected socio-economic, and human predictors. A model comparison of between ordinary least square and geographically-weighted regression was also explored. Vector dataset (spatial) of the study area by village levels and statistical data (non-spatial) on malaria confirmed cases, socio-economic status (bed net use), population data (size of the household) and environmental factors (temperature, rain fall) were used in this exploratory analysis. ArcMap 10.2 and Stata 11 were used to perform malaria hotspots analysis. From Jun to December, a total of 408 confirmed malaria cases were notified. The explanatory variables-household size, housing materials, sleeping rooms, sheep and distance to breeding site returned significant t values of -0.25, 2.3, 4.39, 1.25 and 2.36, respectively. The OLS global model revealed that it explained about 70 % (adjusted R(2) = 0.70) of the variation in malaria occurrence with AIC = 756.23. The geographically-weighted regression of malaria hotspots resulted in coefficient intercept ranging from 1.89 to 6.22 with a median of 3.5. Large positive values are distributed mainly in the southeast of the district where hotspots are more accurate while low values are mainly found in the centre and in the north. Geographically-weighted regression and OLS showed important risks factors of malaria hotspots in Keur Soce. The outputs of such models can be a useful tool to understand occurrence of malaria hotspots in Senegal. An understanding of geographical variation and determination of the core areas of the disease may provide an explanation regarding possible proximal and distal contributors to malaria elimination in Senegal.

Spatial distribution of impact craters on Deimos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, Naoyuki

2017-05-01

Deimos, one of the Martian moons, has numerous impact craters. However, it is unclear whether crater saturation has been reached on this satellite. To address this issue, we apply a statistical test known as nearest-neighbor analysis to analyze the crater distribution of Deimos. When a planetary surface such as the Moon is saturated with impact craters, the spatial distribution of craters is generally changed from random to more ordered. We measured impact craters on Deimos from Viking and HiRISE images and found (1) that the power law of the size-frequency distribution of the craters is approximately -1.7, which is significantly shallower than those of potential impactors, and (2) that the spatial distribution of craters over 30 m in diameter cannot be statistically distinguished from completely random distribution, which indicates that the surface of Deimos is inconsistent with a surface saturated with impact craters. Although a crater size-frequency distribution curve with a slope of -2 is generally interpreted as indicating saturation equilibrium, it is here proposed that two competing mechanisms, seismic shaking and ejecta emplacement, have played a major role in erasing craters on Deimos and are therefore responsible for the shallow slope of this curve. The observed crater density may have reached steady state owing to the obliterations induced by the two competing mechanisms. Such an occurrence indicates that the surface is saturated with impact craters despite the random distribution of craters on Deimos. Therefore, this work proposes that the age determined by the current craters on Deimos reflects neither the age of Deimos itself nor that of the formation of the large concavity centered at its south pole because craters should be removed by later impacts. However, a few of the largest craters on Deimos may be indicative of the age of the south pole event.

Occurrence, distribution and risk of organophosphate esters in urban road dust in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Wenhui; Shi, Yali; Gao, Lihong; Wu, Chuandong; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

2018-06-06

As a major group of plasticizers and flame-retardants, organophosphate esters (OPEs) have attracted particular attention due to their wide occurrence and potential impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the present study, the occurrence and distribution of 14 OPEs, including seven Alkyl-OPEs, three Cl-OPEs, and four Aryl-OPEs, were investigated in 65 road dust samples collected from November to December 2014 in Beijing, China. Cl-OPEs were the predominant compounds in the road dust samples, with the median concentration of 646 μg/kg, followed by the Alkyl-OPEs (median 135 μg/kg) and Aryl-OPEs (median 129 μg/kg). Tris(2-chloro-1-methylethyl) phosphate (TCPP) was the most abundant OPE with the median concentration of 384 μg/kg. In addition, OPEs levels showed significant difference (p < 0.05) in the spatial distribution. Markedly higher levels of OPEs were observed in 2nd and 3rd ring road with heavy traffic and high population density, indicating that the traffic and population were important factors for this distribution pattern. It was further supported by the analysis of OPEs in roadside soil and indoor dust in the vicinity of road dust sample sites. Finally, the average daily dose (ADD) for OPEs via inhalation, dermal absorption, and ingestion was calculated to evaluate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to residents exposed to OPEs in the road dust. Risk assessment revealed that the risk originating from exposure to OPEs of road dust is currently low in Beijing, China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial-temporal variation in orchid bee communities (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in remnants of arboreal Caatinga in the Chapada Diamantina region, state of Bahia, Brazil.

PubMed

Andrade-Silva, A C R; Nemésio, A; de Oliveira, F F; Nascimento, F S

2012-08-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of organisms is a fundamental aspect of biological communities. The present study focused on three remnants of arboreal Caatinga in northeastern Brazil between May, 2009 and April, 2010. A total of 627 euglossine males were captured in traps baited with artificial aromatic compounds. The specimens belonged to 14 species and four genera: Euglossa Latreille, Eulaema Lepeletier, Eufriesea Cockerell, and Exaerete Hoffmannsegg. Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier (41.6), Euglossa carolina Nemésio (15.3%), Eulaema marcii Nemésio (13.6%), and Euglossa melanotricha Moure (12.8%) were the most common species sampled. The distribution of collected specimens per fragment was as follows: Braúna (280 ha)--259 individuals belonging to 14 species; Cambuí (179 ha)--161 individuals from eight species; and Pindoba (100 ha)--207 individuals represented by seven species. Braúna had the highest diversity (H' = 1.91) and estimated species richness. The largest fragment was the main source of the observed variation in species richness and abundance, indicating a non-random pattern of spatial distribution. The analysis of environmental factors indicated that seasonal variation in these factors was the principal determinant of species occurrence and abundance.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation of species distributions: a case study of the swift fox in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Glen A.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Slivinski, Christiane C.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2005-01-01

Accurate maps of species distributions are essential tools for wildlife research and conservation. Unfortunately, biologists often are forced to rely on maps derived from observed occurrences recorded opportunistically during observation periods of variable length. Spurious inferences are likely to result because such maps are profoundly affected by the duration and intensity of observation and by methods used to delineate distributions, especially when detection is uncertain. We conducted a systematic survey of swift fox (Vulpes velox) distribution in western Kansas, USA, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) image restoration to rectify these problems. During 1997–1999, we searched 355 townships (ca. 93 km) 1–3 times each for an average cost of $7,315 per year and achieved a detection rate (probability of detecting swift foxes, if present, during a single search) of = 0.69 (95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = [0.60, 0.77]). Our analysis produced an estimate of the underlying distribution, rather than a map of observed occurrences, that reflected the uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. To evaluate our results, we analyzed simulated data with similar properties. Results of our simulations suggest negligible bias and good precision when probabilities of detection on ≥1 survey occasions (cumulative probabilities of detection) exceed 0.65. Although the use of MCMC image restoration has been limited by theoretical and computational complexities, alternatives do not possess the same advantages. Image models accommodate uncertain detection, do not require spatially independent data or a census of map units, and can be used to estimate species distributions directly from observations without relying on habitat covariates or parameters that must be estimated subjectively. These features facilitate economical surveys of large regions, the detection of temporal trends in distribution, and assessments of landscape-level relations between species and habitats. Requirements for the use of MCMC image restoration include study areas that can be partitioned into regular grids of mapping units, spatially contagious species distributions, reliable methods for identifying target species, and cumulative probabilities of detection ≥0.65.

Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of species distributions: A case study of the swift fox in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Sovada, M.A.; Slivinski, C.C.; Johnson, D.H.

2005-01-01

Accurate maps of species distributions are essential tools for wildlife research and conservation. Unfortunately, biologists often are forced to rely on maps derived from observed occurrences recorded opportunistically during observation periods of variable length. Spurious inferences are likely to result because such maps are profoundly affected by the duration and intensity of observation and by methods used to delineate distributions, especially when detection is uncertain. We conducted a systematic survey of swift fox (Vulpes velox) distribution in western Kansas, USA, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) image restoration to rectify these problems. During 1997-1999, we searched 355 townships (ca. 93 km2) 1-3 times each for an average cost of $7,315 per year and achieved a detection rate (probability of detecting swift foxes, if present, during a single search) of ?? = 0.69 (95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = [0.60, 0.77]). Our analysis produced an estimate of the underlying distribution, rather than a map of observed occurrences, that reflected the uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. To evaluate our results, we analyzed simulated data with similar properties. Results of our simulations suggest negligible bias and good precision when probabilities of detection on ???1 survey occasions (cumulative probabilities of detection) exceed 0.65. Although the use of MCMC image restoration has been limited by theoretical and computational complexities, alternatives do not possess the same advantages. Image models accommodate uncertain detection, do not require spatially independent data or a census of map units, and can be used to estimate species distributions directly from observations without relying on habitat covariates or parameters that must be estimated subjectively. These features facilitate economical surveys of large regions, the detection of temporal trends in distribution, and assessments of landscape-level relations between species and habitats. Requirements for the use of MCMC image restoration include study areas that can be partitioned into regular grids of mapping units, spatially contagious species distributions, reliable methods for identifying target species, and cumulative probabilities of detection ???0.65.

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Meifang; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-01-01

Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra) and MYD14A1 (Aqua)) and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578), which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly distributed in Xin Barag Youqi, Xin Barag Zuoqi, Zalantun Shi, Oroqen Zizhiqi, and Molidawa Zizhiqi; the zones with medium fire climate index are mainly distributed in Chen Barag Qi, Ewenkizu Zizhiqi, Manzhouli Shi, and Arun Qi; and the zones with lower fire climate index are mainly distributed in Genhe Shi, Ergun city, Yakeshi Shi, and Hailar Shi. The results of this study will contribute to the quantitative assessment and management of early warning and forecasting for mid-to long-term grassland fire risk in HulunBuir. PMID:28304336

Spatial patterns of modern period human-caused fire occurrence in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. Healy; Stephen R. Shifley; Eric J. Gustafson

2007-01-01

The spatial pattern of forest fire locations is important in the study of the dynamics of fire disturbance. In this article we used a spatial point process modeling approach to quantitatively study the effects of land cover, topography, roads, municipalities, ownership, and population density on fire occurrence reported between 1970 and 2002 in the Missouri Ozark...

[Prevalence and spatial distribution of trachoma among schoolchildren in Botucatu, São Paulo - Brazil].

PubMed

Schellini, Silvana Artioli; Lavezzo, Marcelo Mendes; Ferraz, Lucieni Barbarini; Olbrich Neto, Jaime; Medina, Norma Hellen; Padovani, Carlos Roberto

2010-01-01

To assess the prevalence of trachoma in schoolchildren of Botucatu/ SP-Brazil and its spatial distribution. Cross-sectional study in children aged from 7 to 14 years, who attended elementary schools in Botucatu/SP in November/2005. The sample size was estimated in 2,092 children, considering the 11.2% historic prevalence of trachoma, accepting an estimation error of 10% and confidence level of 95%. The sample was random, weighted and increased by 20%, because of the possible occurrence of losses. The total number of children examined was 2,692. The diagnosis was clinical, based on WHO guidelines. For the evaluation of spatial data, the CartaLinx program (v1.2) was used, and the school demand sectors digitized according to the planning divisions of the Department of Education. The data were statistically analyzed, and the analysis of the spatial structure of events calculated using the Geode program. The prevalence of trachoma in schoolchildren of Botucatu was 2.9% and there were cases of follicular trachoma. The exploratory spatial analysis failed to reject the null hypothesis of randomness (R= -0.45, p>0.05), with no significant demand sectors. The analysis for the Thiessen polygons also showed that the overall pattern was random (I= -0.07, p=0.49). However, local indicators pointed to a group of low-low type for a polygon to the north of the urban area. The prevalence of trachoma in schoolchildren in Botucatu was 2.9%. The analysis of the spatial distribution did not reveal areas of greater clustering of cases. Although the overall pattern of the disease does not reproduce the socio-economic conditions of the population, the lower prevalence of trachoma was found in areas of lower social vulnerability.

Verifying the Dependence of Fractal Coefficients on Different Spatial Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gospodinov, Dragomir; Marekova, Elisaveta; Marinov, Alexander

2010-01-01

A fractal distribution requires that the number of objects larger than a specific size r has a power-law dependence on the size N(r) = C/rD∝r-D where D is the fractal dimension. Usually the correlation integral is calculated to estimate the correlation fractal dimension of epicentres. A `box-counting' procedure could also be applied giving the `capacity' fractal dimension. The fractal dimension can be an integer and then it is equivalent to a Euclidean dimension (it is zero of a point, one of a segment, of a square is two and of a cube is three). In general the fractal dimension is not an integer but a fractional dimension and there comes the origin of the term `fractal'. The use of a power-law to statistically describe a set of events or phenomena reveals the lack of a characteristic length scale, that is fractal objects are scale invariant. Scaling invariance and chaotic behavior constitute the base of a lot of natural hazards phenomena. Many studies of earthquakes reveal that their occurrence exhibits scale-invariant properties, so the fractal dimension can characterize them. It has first been confirmed that both aftershock rate decay in time and earthquake size distribution follow a power law. Recently many other earthquake distributions have been found to be scale-invariant. The spatial distribution of both regional seismicity and aftershocks show some fractal features. Earthquake spatial distributions are considered fractal, but indirectly. There are two possible models, which result in fractal earthquake distributions. The first model considers that a fractal distribution of faults leads to a fractal distribution of earthquakes, because each earthquake is characteristic of the fault on which it occurs. The second assumes that each fault has a fractal distribution of earthquakes. Observations strongly favour the first hypothesis. The fractal coefficients analysis provides some important advantages in examining earthquake spatial distribution, which are:—Simple way to quantify scale-invariant distributions of complex objects or phenomena by a small number of parameters.—It is becoming evident that the applicability of fractal distributions to geological problems could have a more fundamental basis. Chaotic behaviour could underlay the geotectonic processes and the applicable statistics could often be fractal. The application of fractal distribution analysis has, however, some specific aspects. It is usually difficult to present an adequate interpretation of the obtained values of fractal coefficients for earthquake epicenter or hypocenter distributions. That is why in this paper we aimed at other goals—to verify how a fractal coefficient depends on different spatial distributions. We simulated earthquake spatial data by generating randomly points first in a 3D space - cube, then in a parallelepiped, diminishing one of its sides. We then continued this procedure in 2D and 1D space. For each simulated data set we calculated the points' fractal coefficient (correlation fractal dimension of epicentres) and then checked for correlation between the coefficients values and the type of spatial distribution. In that way one can obtain a set of standard fractal coefficients' values for varying spatial distributions. These then can be used when real earthquake data is analyzed by comparing the real data coefficients values to the standard fractal coefficients. Such an approach can help in interpreting the fractal analysis results through different types of spatial distributions.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Fire Incidents: a Case Study of Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J.; Zhang, X.

2016-06-01

Fire and rescue service is one of the fundamental public services provided by government in order to protect people, properties and environment from fires and other disasters, and thus promote a safer living environment. Well understanding spatial-temporal dynamics of fire incidents can offer insights for potential determinants of various fire events and enable better fire risk estimation, assisting future allocation of prevention resources and strategic planning of mitigation programs. Using a 12-year (2002-2013) dataset containing the urban fire events in Nanjing, China, this research explores the spatial-temporal dynamics of urban fire incidents. A range of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) approaches and tools, such as spatial kernel density and co-maps, are employed to examine the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal variations of the fire events. Particular attention has been paid to two types of fire incidents: residential properties and local facilities, due to their relatively higher occurrence frequencies. The results demonstrated that the amount of urban fire has greatly increased in the last decade and spatial-temporal distribution of fire events vary among different incident types, which implies varying impact of potential influencing factors for further investigation.

Geophysical mapping of palsa peatland permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjöberg, Y.; Marklund, P.; Pettersson, R.; Lyon, S. W.

2014-10-01

Permafrost peatlands are hydrological and biogeochemical hotspots in the discontinuous permafrost zone. Non-intrusive geophysical methods offer possibility to map current permafrost spatial distributions in these environments. In this study, we estimate the depths to the permafrost table surface and base across a peatland in northern Sweden, using ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography. Seasonal thaw frost tables (at ~0.5 m depth), taliks (2.1-6.7 m deep), and the permafrost base (at ~16 m depth) could be detected. Higher occurrences of taliks were discovered at locations with a lower relative height of permafrost landforms indicative of lower ground ice content at these locations. These results highlight the added value of combining geophysical techniques for assessing spatial distribution of permafrost within the rapidly changing sporadic permafrost zone. For example, based on a simple thought experiment for the site considered here, we estimated that the thickest permafrost could thaw out completely within the next two centuries. There is a clear need, thus, to benchmark current permafrost distributions and characteristics particularly in under studied regions of the pan-arctic.

Geophysical mapping of palsa peatland permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjöberg, Y.; Marklund, P.; Pettersson, R.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-03-01

Permafrost peatlands are hydrological and biogeochemical hotspots in the discontinuous permafrost zone. Non-intrusive geophysical methods offer a possibility to map current permafrost spatial distributions in these environments. In this study, we estimate the depths to the permafrost table and base across a peatland in northern Sweden, using ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography. Seasonal thaw frost tables (at ~0.5 m depth), taliks (2.1-6.7 m deep), and the permafrost base (at ~16 m depth) could be detected. Higher occurrences of taliks were discovered at locations with a lower relative height of permafrost landforms, which is indicative of lower ground ice content at these locations. These results highlight the added value of combining geophysical techniques for assessing spatial distributions of permafrost within the rapidly changing sporadic permafrost zone. For example, based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation for the site considered here, we estimated that the permafrost could thaw completely within the next 3 centuries. Thus there is a clear need to benchmark current permafrost distributions and characteristics, particularly in under studied regions of the pan-Arctic.

Visualization of spatial patterns and temporal trends for aerial surveillance of illegal oil discharges in western Canadian marine waters.

PubMed

Serra-Sogas, Norma; O'Hara, Patrick D; Canessa, Rosaline; Keller, Peter; Pelot, Ronald

2008-05-01

This paper examines the use of exploratory spatial analysis for identifying hotspots of shipping-based oil pollution in the Pacific Region of Canada's Exclusive Economic Zone. It makes use of data collected from fiscal years 1997/1998 to 2005/2006 by the National Aerial Surveillance Program, the primary tool for monitoring and enforcing the provisions imposed by MARPOL 73/78. First, we present oil spill data as points in a "dot map" relative to coastlines, harbors and the aerial surveillance distribution. Then, we explore the intensity of oil spill events using the Quadrat Count method, and the Kernel Density Estimation methods with both fixed and adaptive bandwidths. We found that oil spill hotspots where more clearly defined using Kernel Density Estimation with an adaptive bandwidth, probably because of the "clustered" distribution of oil spill occurrences. Finally, we discuss the importance of standardizing oil spill data by controlling for surveillance effort to provide a better understanding of the distribution of illegal oil spills, and how these results can ultimately benefit a monitoring program.

Temporal and spatial distribution of red tide outbreaks in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters, China.

PubMed

Liu, Lusan; Zhou, Juan; Zheng, Binghui; Cai, Wenqian; Lin, Kuixuan; Tang, Jingliang

2013-07-15

Between 1972 and 2009, evidence of red tide outbreaks in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters was collected. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of these red tides, and it was subsequently used to map the distribution of these events. The results show that the following findings. (1) There were three red tide-prone areas: outside the Yangtze River Estuary and the eastern coast of Sheshan, the Huaniaoshan-Shengshan-Gouqi waters, and the Zhoushan areas and eastern coast of Zhujiajian. In these areas, red tides occurred 174 total times, 25 of which were larger than 1000 km(2) in areal extent. After 2000, the frequency of red tide outbreaks increased significantly. (2) During the months of May and June, the red tide occurrence in these areas was 51% and 20%, respectively. (3) Outbreaks of the dominant red tide plankton species Prorocentrum dong-haiense, Skeletonema costatum, Prorocentrum dantatum, and Noctiluca scientillan occurred 38, 35, 15, and 10 times, respectively, during the study interval. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks

PubMed Central

Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

2018-01-01

To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute new seed bank sources for species that are affected by the distance to natural lands and roads. PMID:29360857

Spatial patterns, ecological niches, and interspecific competition of avian brood parasites: inferring from a case study of Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Jin-Won; Noh, Hee-Jin; Lee, Yunkyoung; Kwon, Young-Soo; Kim, Chang-Hoe; Yoo, Jeong-Chil

2014-09-01

Since obligate avian brood parasites depend completely on the effort of other host species for rearing their progeny, the availability of hosts will be a critical resource for their life history. Circumstantial evidence suggests that intense competition for host species may exist not only within but also between species. So far, however, few studies have demonstrated whether the interspecific competition really occurs in the system of avian brood parasitism and how the nature of brood parasitism is related to their niche evolution. Using the occurrence data of five avian brood parasites from two sources of nationwide bird surveys in South Korea and publically available environmental/climatic data, we identified their distribution patterns and ecological niches, and applied species distribution modeling to infer the effect of interspecific competition on their spatial distribution. We found that the distribution patterns of five avian brood parasites could be characterized by altitude and climatic conditions, but overall their spatial ranges and ecological niches extensively overlapped with each other. We also found that the predicted distribution areas of each species were generally comparable to the realized distribution areas, and the numbers of individuals in areas where multiple species were predicted to coexist showed positive relationships among species. In conclusion, despite following different coevolutionary trajectories to adapt to their respect host species, five species of avian brood parasites breeding in South Korea occupied broadly similar ecological niches, implying that they tend to conserve ancestral preferences for ecological conditions. Furthermore, our results indicated that contrary to expectation interspecific competition for host availability between avian brood parasites seemed to be trivial, and thus, play little role in shaping their spatial distributions and ecological niches. Future studies, including the complete ranges of avian brood parasites and ecological niches of host species, will be worthwhile to further elucidate these issues.

Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

PubMed

Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

2018-01-01

To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute new seed bank sources for species that are affected by the distance to natural lands and roads.

Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany: updated geographic distribution and public health impact of a nuisance and vector mosquito.

PubMed

Heym, Eva C; Kampen, Helge; Fahle, Marcus; Hohenbrink, Tobias L; Schäfer, Mandy; Scheuch, Dorothee E; Walther, Doreen

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to map the current spatial distribution of Anopheles plumbeus in Germany, a potential vector of malaria parasites and West Nile virus. Reports of mass occurrence and nuisance connected with artificial breeding site usage by this species were analysed. Distribution data were collected from 2011 to 2014 mainly through trapping and submissions of adult mosquito specimens to a citizen science project. In the framework of the latter, additional information was gathered on recent nuisance incidents caused by An. plumbeus, including a longitudinal analysis of mosquito occurrence and the impact of management measures at a nuisance site in south-western Germany. Based on the most comprehensive set of collection data obtained during the last decades, An. plumbeus is shown to be widely distributed over Germany. The data also indicate a continuing extension of the breeding site repertoire of the species from natural to artificial habitats that facilitate mass development. Increasing incidents of persistent nuisance suggest that this mosquito species is rarely diagnosed correctly and managed adequately. As An. plumbeus is both a serious nuisance pest and a potential vector species, awareness of this species and the public health problems linked to it should be raised among pest managers and public health personnel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fish species of greatest conservation need in wadeable Iowa streams: current status and effectiveness of Aquatic Gap Program distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sindt, Anthony R.; Pierce, Clay; Quist, Michael C.

2012-01-01

Effective conservation of fish species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) requires an understanding of species–habitat relationships and distributional trends. Thus, modeling the distribution of fish species across large spatial scales may be a valuable tool for conservation planning. Our goals were to evaluate the status of 10 fish SGCN in wadeable Iowa streams and to test the effectiveness of Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) species distribution models. We sampled fish assemblages from 86 wadeable stream segments in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa during 2009 and 2010 to provide contemporary, independent fish species presence–absence data. The frequencies of occurrence in stream segments where species were historically documented varied from 0.0% for redfin shiner Lythrurus umbratilis to 100.0% for American brook lampreyLampetra appendix, with a mean of 53.0%, suggesting that the status of Iowa fish SGCN is highly variable. Cohen's kappa values and other model performance measures were calculated by comparing field-collected presence–absence data with IAGAP model–predicted presences and absences for 12 fish SGCN. Kappa values varied from 0.00 to 0.50, with a mean of 0.15. The models only predicted the occurrences of banded darterEtheostoma zonale, southern redbelly dace Phoxinus erythrogaster, and longnose daceRhinichthys cataractae more accurately than would be expected by chance. Overall, the accuracy of the twelve models was low, with a mean correct classification rate of 58.3%. Poor model performance probably reflects the difficulties associated with modeling the distribution of rare species and the inability of the large-scale habitat variables used in IAGAP models to explain the variation in fish species occurrences. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the confidence in species distribution model predictions with an independent data set and the need for long-term monitoring to better understand the distributional trends and habitat associations of fish SGCN.

Mapping Chinese tallow with color-infrared photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, Elijah W.; Nelson, G.A.; Sapkota, S.K.; Seeger, E.B.; Martella, K.D.

2002-01-01

Airborne color-infrared photography (CIR) (1:12,000 scale) was used to map localized occurrences of the widespread and aggressive Chinese tallow (Sapium sebiferum), an invasive species. Photography was collected during senescence when Chinese tallow's bright red leaves presented a high spectral contrast within the native bottomland hardwood and upland forests and marsh land-cover types. Mapped occurrences were conservative because not all senescing tallow leaves are bright red simultaneously. To simulate low spectral but high spatial resolution satellite/airborne image and digital video data, the CIR photography was transformed into raster images at spatial resolutions approximating 0.5 in and 1.0 m. The image data were then spectrally classified for the occurrence of bright red leaves associated with senescing Chinese tallow. Classification accuracies were greater than 95 percent at both spatial resolutions. There was no significant difference in either forest in the detection of tallow or inclusion of non-tallow trees associated with the two spatial resolutions. In marshes, slightly more tallow occurrences were mapped with the lower spatial resolution, but there were also more misclassifications of native land covers as tallow. Combining all land covers, there was no difference at detecting tallow occurrences (equal omission errors) between the two resolutions, but the higher spatial resolution was associated with less inclusion of non-tallow land covers as tallow (lower commission error). Overall, these results confirm that high spatial (???1 m) but low spectral resolution remote sensing data can be used for mapping Chinese tallow trees in dominant environments found in coastal and adjacent upland landscapes.

Predictive modeling of deep-sea fish distribution in the Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Hugo E.; Pham, Christopher K.; Menezes, Gui M.; Rosa, Alexandra; Tempera, Fernando; Morato, Telmo

2017-11-01

Understanding the link between fish and their habitat is essential for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. However, determining such relationship is challenging, especially for deep-sea species. In this study, we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to relate presence-absence and relative abundance data of eight economically-important fish species to environmental variables (depth, slope, aspect, substrate type, bottom temperature, salinity and oxygen saturation). We combined 13 years of catch data collected from systematic longline surveys performed across the region. Overall, presence-absence GAMs performed better than abundance models and predictions made for the observed data successfully predicted the occurrence of the eight deep-sea fish species. Depth was the most influential predictor of all fish species occurrence and abundance distributions, whereas other factors were found to be significant for some species but did not show such a clear influence. Our results predicted that despite the extensive Azores EEZ, the habitats available for the studied deep-sea fish species are highly limited and patchy, restricted to seamounts slopes and summits, offshore banks and island slopes. Despite some identified limitations, our GAMs provide an improved knowledge of the spatial distribution of these commercially important fish species in the region.

Spatio-Temporal Fluctuations of the Earthquake Magnitude Distribution: Robust Estimation and Predictive Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, S.; Zaliapin, I.

2008-12-01

We establish positive correlation between the local spatio-temporal fluctuations of the earthquake magnitude distribution and the occurrence of regional earthquakes. In order to accomplish this goal, we develop a sequential Bayesian statistical estimation framework for the b-value (slope of the Gutenberg-Richter's exponential approximation to the observed magnitude distribution) and for the ratio a(t) between the earthquake intensities in two non-overlapping magnitude intervals. The time-dependent dynamics of these parameters is analyzed using Markov Chain Models (MCM). The main advantage of this approach over the traditional window-based estimation is its "soft" parameterization, which allows one to obtain stable results with realistically small samples. We furthermore discuss a statistical methodology for establishing lagged correlations between continuous and point processes. The developed methods are applied to the observed seismicity of California, Nevada, and Japan on different temporal and spatial scales. We report an oscillatory dynamics of the estimated parameters, and find that the detected oscillations are positively correlated with the occurrence of large regional earthquakes, as well as with small events with magnitudes as low as 2.5. The reported results have important implications for further development of earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment methods.

computer land use mapping via TV waveform analysis of space photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

An instrumentation and computer system which offers the potential for analyzing photogeographic distributions is described. To satisfy the requirement for computer acceptance, a television and waveform system was developed to transpose pictorial or iconic photo forms to the analytic. A video conversion was accomplished, and each pattern visible on the original photography was represented by a certain range of percentages. With spatial occurrences in digital form, a computer program was developed that could identify, analyze, and map geographic inputs.

Occurrence and Distribution of Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) Indicators in Non-Perennial Streams in the Western Mountains, Valleys, and Coast Region of the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

1 Common hydrogeomorphic units that form in stream systems in response to spatially and temporally varying hydrologic and geomorphic processes... geomorphic , and vegetative indica- tors for use in OHWM delineations in arid streams and categorized their typical landscape positions with respect...the presence of a bed and banks. Hydrogeomorphic units are distinct macro- scale geomorphic features formed within stream systems in response to

Conservation status assessment of an endangered insular raptor: the Sharp-shinned Hawk in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallardo, Julio C.; Vilella, Francisco

2017-01-01

Sharp‐shinned Hawks (Accipiter striatus) are forest raptors that are widely distributed in the Americas. A subspecies endemic to Puerto Rico (A. s. venator) is listed as endangered and restricted to mature and old secondary montane forests and shade coffee plantations. However, recent information about the population status and distribution of Puerto Rican Sharp‐shinned Hawks is lacking. We developed a spatial geographic distribution model for Sharp‐shinned Hawks in Puerto Rico from 33 locations collected during four breeding seasons (2013–2016) using biologically relevant landscape variables (aspect, canopy closure, elevation, rainfall, slope, and terrain roughness). Elevation accounted for 89.8% of the model fit and predicted that the greatest probability of occurrence of Sharp‐shinned Hawks in Puerto Rico (> 60%) was at elevations above 900 m. Based on our model, an estimated 56.1 km2 of habitat exists in Puerto Rico with a high probability of occurrence. This total represents ~0.6% of the island's area. Public lands included 43.8% of habitat with high probability of occurrence (24.6 km2), 96% of which was located within four protected areas. Our results suggest that Sharp‐shinned Hawks are rare in Puerto Rico and restricted to the higher elevations of the Cordillera Central. Additional research is needed to identify and address ecological limiting factors, and recovery actions are needed to avoid the extinction of this endemic island raptor.

Microplastic pollution in the surface waters of Italian Subalpine Lakes.

PubMed

Sighicelli, Maria; Pietrelli, Loris; Lecce, Francesca; Iannilli, Valentina; Falconieri, Mauro; Coscia, Lucia; Di Vito, Stefania; Nuglio, Simone; Zampetti, Giorgio

2018-05-01

Plastic debris incidence in marine environment was already highlighted in the early 1970s. Over the last decade, microplastic pollution in the environment has received increasing attention and is now an emerging research area. Many studies have focused on quantifying microplastic abundance in the marine environment, while there are relatively few data on microplastic occurrence in freshwater environment. Recent studies have reported high concentrations of microplastics in lakes and rivers, although the understanding of several factors influencing source, transport and fate is still limited. This study compares different lakes and the common factors, which could influence the occurrence and distribution of microplastics. The three subalpine lakes monitored include Lake Maggiore, Iseo and Garda. The selected sampling transects reflect the hydrologic conditions, the morphometric characteristics of these lakes, and other factors influencing the release of plastics debris in lakes. Particles of microplastics (<5 mm) were found in all sampled surfaces. The particles collected were classified depending on their number, shape and composition. The shape distribution showed the dominating occurrence of fragments (73.7%). The chemical composition of all examined samples clearly shows dominating presence of polyethylene (45%), polystyrene (18%) and polypropylene (15%). The results provide significant relations among the different contribution of direct and diffuse sources to the quantity of microplastics, highlighting the importance of understanding the spatial distribution dynamics of microplastics within a lake system that acts as a sink and source of plastic particles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controls on Mississippi Valley-Type Zn-Pb mineralization in Behabad district, Central Iran: Constraints from spatial and numerical analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsa, Mohammad; Maghsoudi, Abbas

2018-04-01

The Behabad district, located in the central Iranian microcontinent, contains numerous epigenetic stratabound carbonate-hosted Zn-Pb ore bodies. The mineralizations formed as fault, fracture and karst fillings in the Permian-Triassic formations, especially in Middle Triassic dolostones, and comprise mainly non-sulfides zinc ores. These are all interpreted as Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) base metal deposits. From an economic geological point of view, it is imperative to recognize the processes that have plausibly controlled the emplacement of MVT Zn-Pb mineralization in the Behabad district. To address the foregoing issue, analyses of the spatial distribution of mineral deposits comprising fry and fractal techniques and analysis of the spatial association of mineral deposits with geological features using distance distribution analysis were applied to assess the regional-scale processes that could have operated in the distribution of MVT Zn-Pb deposits in the district. The obtained results based on these analytical techniques show the main trends of the occurrences are NW-SE and NE-SW, which are parallel or subparallel to the major northwest and northeast trending faults, supporting the idea that these particular faults could have acted as the main conduits for transport of mineral-bearing fluids. The results of these analyses also suggest that Permian-Triassic brittle carbonate sedimentary rocks have served as the lithological controls on MVT mineralization in the Behabad district as they are spatially and temporally associated with mineralization.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of dengue cases in the city of Rio de Janeiro, 2011 and 2012

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Silvia; Magalhães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the spatial distribution of classical dengue and severe dengue cases in the city of Rio de Janeiro. METHODS Exploratory study, considering cases of classical dengue and severe dengue with laboratory confirmation of the infection in the city of Rio de Janeiro during the years 2011/2012. The georeferencing technique was applied for the cases notified in the Notification Increase Information System in the period of 2011 and 2012. For this process, the fields “street” and “number” were used. The ArcGis10 program’s Geocoding tool’s automatic process was performed. The spatial analysis was done through the kernel density estimator. RESULTS Kernel density pointed out hotspots for classic dengue that did not coincide geographically with severe dengue and were in or near favelas. The kernel ratio did not show a notable change in the spatial distribution pattern observed in the kernel density analysis. The georeferencing process showed a loss of 41% of classic dengue registries and 17% of severe dengue registries due to the address in the Notification Increase Information System form. CONCLUSIONS The hotspots near the favelas suggest that the social vulnerability of these localities can be an influencing factor for the occurrence of this aggravation since there is a deficiency of the supply and access to essential goods and services for the population. To reduce this vulnerability, interventions must be related to macroeconomic policies. PMID:28832752

Spatial distribution of trachoma cases in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, detected in 2006: defining key areas for improvement of health resources.

PubMed

Macharelli, Carlos Alberto; Schellini, Silvana Artioli; Opromolla, Paula Araujo; Dalben, Ivete

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial behavior of the occurrence of trachoma cases detected in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2006 in order to use the information collected to set priority areas for optimization of health resources. the trachoma cases identified in 2006 were georeferenced. The data evaluated were: schools where the trachoma cases studied, data from the 2000 Census, census tract, type of housing, water supply conditions, distribution of income and levels of education of household heads. In the Google Earth® software and TerraView® were made descriptive spatial analysis and estimates of the Kernel. Each area was studied by interpolation of the density surfaces exposing events to facilitate to recognize the clusters. Of the 66 cases detected, only one (1.5%) was not a resident of the city's outskirts. A positive association was detected of trachoma cases and the percentage of heads of household with income below three minimum wages and schooling under eight years of education. The recognition of the spatial distribution of trachoma cases coincided with the areas of greatest social inequality in Bauru city. The micro-areas identified are those that should be prioritized in the rationalization of health resources. There is the possibility of using the trachoma cases detected as an indicator of performance of micro priority health programs.

Spatial embedding of structural similarity in the cerebral cortex

PubMed Central

Song, H. Francis; Kennedy, Henry; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2014-01-01

Recent anatomical tracing studies have yielded substantial amounts of data on the areal connectivity underlying distributed processing in cortex, yet the fundamental principles that govern the large-scale organization of cortex remain unknown. Here we show that functional similarity between areas as defined by the pattern of shared inputs or outputs is a key to understanding the areal network of cortex. In particular, we report a systematic relation in the monkey, human, and mouse cortex between the occurrence of connections from one area to another and their similarity distance. This characteristic relation is rooted in the wiring distance dependence of connections in the brain. We introduce a weighted, spatially embedded random network model that robustly gives rise to this structure, as well as many other spatial and topological properties observed in cortex. These include features that were not accounted for in any previous model, such as the wide range of interareal connection weights. Connections in the model emerge from an underlying distribution of spatially embedded axons, thereby integrating the two scales of cortical connectivity—individual axons and interareal pathways—into a common geometric framework. These results provide insights into the origin of large-scale connectivity in cortex and have important implications for theories of cortical organization. PMID:25368200

Spatial Downscaling of Alien Species Presences using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Moustakas, Aristides

2017-07-01

Large scale, high-resolution data on alien species distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of their environmental and socio-economic impacts, and management interventions for mitigation. However, these data are often unavailable. This paper presents a method that relies on Random Forest (RF) models to distribute alien species presence counts at a finer resolution grid, thus achieving spatial downscaling. A sufficiently large number of RF models are trained using random subsets of the dataset as predictors, in a bootstrapping approach to account for the uncertainty introduced by the subset selection. The method is tested with an approximately 8×8 km2 grid containing floral alien species presence and several indices of climatic, habitat, land use covariates for the Mediterranean island of Crete, Greece. Alien species presence is aggregated at 16×16 km2 and used as a predictor of presence at the original resolution, thus simulating spatial downscaling. Potential explanatory variables included habitat types, land cover richness, endemic species richness, soil type, temperature, precipitation, and freshwater availability. Uncertainty assessment of the spatial downscaling of alien species’ occurrences was also performed and true/false presences and absences were quantified. The approach is promising for downscaling alien species datasets of larger spatial scale but coarse resolution, where the underlying environmental information is available at a finer resolution than the alien species data. Furthermore, the RF architecture allows for tuning towards operationally optimal sensitivity and specificity, thus providing a decision support tool for designing a resource efficient alien species census.

Spatial distribution of galls caused by Aculus tetanothrix (Acari: Eriophyoidea) on arctic willows.

PubMed

Kuczyński, Lechosław; Skoracka, Anna

2005-01-01

The distribution of galls caused by Aculus tetanothrix (Acari: Eriophyoidea) on three Salix species was studied. The factors influencing this distribution were analysed, i.e. willow species, study area and shoot length. Spatial pattern of gall distribution within the shoot was also examined. The study was conducted in Russia, Kola Peninsula. Densities of galls caused by A. tetanothrix differed significantly among willow species. Considerably higher gall density was recorded in the White Sea coast than in the Khibiny Mountains. This may be explained by the influence of a milder maritime climate that favors mite occurrence compared to a harsh and variable mountain climate that limits mite abundance. There was no relationship between the gall density and the shoot length. The highest density of galls was recorded on the inner offshoots; within the offshoot, there was a maximum density on the fifth leaf. This pattern was repeatable for all shoots studied, independent of the study area, willow species and length of shoots, suggesting the optimal conditions for A. tetanothrix exist on leaves in the middle part of a shoot. This distribution pattern may be an effect of the trade-off between the costs and benefits resulting from leaf quality and mite movement along the shoot. This hypothesis, however, needs to be tested experimentally.

Human Activity Helps Prey Win the Predator-Prey Space Race

PubMed Central

Muhly, Tyler B.; Semeniuk, Christina; Massolo, Alessandro; Hickman, Laura; Musiani, Marco

2011-01-01

Predator-prey interactions, including between large mammalian wildlife species, can be represented as a “space race”, where prey try to minimize and predators maximize spatial overlap. Human activity can also influence the distribution of wildlife species. In particular, high-human disturbance can displace large carnivore predators, a trait-mediated direct effect. Predator displacement by humans could then indirectly benefit prey species by reducing predation risk, a trait-mediated indirect effect of humans that spatially decouples predators from prey. The purpose of this research was to test the hypothesis that high-human activity was displacing predators and thus indirectly creating spatial refuge for prey species, helping prey win the “space race”. We measured the occurrence of eleven large mammal species (including humans and cattle) at 43 camera traps deployed on roads and trails in southwest Alberta, Canada. We tested species co-occurrence at camera sites using hierarchical cluster and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) analyses; and tested whether human activity, food and/or habitat influenced predator and prey species counts at camera sites using regression tree analysis. Cluster and NMS analysis indicated that at camera sites humans co-occurred with prey species more than predator species and predator species had relatively low co-occurrence with prey species. Regression tree analysis indicated that prey species were three times more abundant on roads and trails with >32 humans/day. However, predators were less abundant on roads and trails that exceeded 18 humans/day. Our results support the hypothesis that high-human activity displaced predators but not prey species, creating spatial refuge from predation. High-human activity on roads and trails (i.e., >18 humans/day) has the potential to interfere with predator-prey interactions via trait-mediated direct and indirect effects. We urge scientist and managers to carefully consider and quantify the trait-mediated indirect effects of humans, in addition to direct effects, when assessing human impacts on wildlife and ecosystems. PMID:21399682

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

Landslides triggered by the 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Mw = 7.0 earthquake: visual interpretation, inventory compiling, and spatial distribution statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Shyu, J. B. H.; Xu, X.

2014-07-01

The 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, earthquake (Mw= 7.0) triggered tens of thousands of landslides. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlations of the occurrence of landslides and the thicknesses of their erosion with topographic, geologic, and seismic parameters. A total of 30 828 landslides triggered by the earthquake covered a total area of 15.736 km2, distributed in an area more than 3000 km2, and the volume of landslide accumulation materials is estimated to be about 29 700 000 m3. These landslides are of various types, mostly belonging to shallow disrupted landslides and rock falls, but also include coherent deep-seated landslides and rock slides. These landslides were delineated using pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite images. Spatial distribution maps and contour maps of landslide number density, landslide area percentage, and landslide erosion thickness were constructed in order to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of co-seismic landslides. Statistics of size distribution and morphometric parameters of co-seismic landslides were carried out and were compared with other earthquake events in the world. Four proxies of co-seismic landslide abundance, including landslides centroid number density (LCND), landslide top number density (LTND), landslide area percentage (LAP), and landslide erosion thickness (LET) were used to correlate co-seismic landslides with various environmental parameters. These parameters include elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, topographic position, distance from drainages, lithology, distance from the epicenter, distance from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, distance along the fault, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). A comparison of these impact parameters on co-seismic landslides shows that slope angle is the strongest impact parameter on co-seismic landslide occurrence. Our co-seismic landslide inventory is much more detailed than other inventories in several previous publications. Therefore, we carried out comparisons of inventories of landslides triggered by the Haiti earthquake with other published results and proposed possible reasons for any differences. We suggest that the empirical functions between earthquake magnitude and co-seismic landslides need to be updated on the basis of the abundant and more complete co-seismic landslide inventories recently available.

Landslides triggered by the 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, earthquake: visual interpretation, inventory compiling and spatial distribution statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Shyu, J. B. H.; Xu, X.-W.

2014-02-01

The 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, earthquake (Mw 7.0) triggered tens of thousands of landslides. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlations of the occurrence of landslides and their erosion thicknesses with topographic factors, seismic parameters, and their distance from roads. A total of 30 828 landslides triggered by the earthquake covered a total area of 15.736 km2, distributed in an area more than 3000 km2, and the volume of landslide accumulation materials is estimated to be about 29 700 000 m3. These landslides are of various types, mostly belonging to shallow disrupted landslides and rock falls, but also include coherent deep-seated landslides and rock slides. These landslides were delineated using pre- and post-earthquake high-resolutions satellite images. Spatial distribution maps and contour maps of landslide number density, landslide area percentage, and landslide erosion thickness were constructed in order to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of co-seismic landslides. Statistics of size distribution and morphometric parameters of co-seismic landslides were carried out and were compared with other earthquake events in the world. Four proxies of co-seismic landslide abundance, including landslides centroid number density (LCND), landslide top number density (LTND), landslide area percentage (LAP), and landslide erosion thickness (LET) were used to correlate co-seismic landslides with various landslide controlling parameters. These controlling parameters include elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, topographic position, distance from drainages, lithology, distance from the epicenter, distance from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, distance along the fault, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). A comparison of these impact parameters on co-seismic landslides shows that slope angle is the strongest impact parameter on co-seismic landslide occurrence. Our co-seismic landslide inventory is much more detailed than other inventories in several previous publications. Therefore, we carried out comparisons of inventories of landslides triggered by the Haiti earthquake with other published results and proposed possible reasons of any differences. We suggest that the empirical functions between earthquake magnitude and co-seismic landslides need to update on the basis of the abundant and more complete co-seismic landslide inventories recently available.

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

Phase coupling and synchrony in the spatiotemporal dynamics of muskrat and mink populations across Canada

PubMed Central

Haydon, D. T.; Stenseth, N. C.; Boyce, M. S.; Greenwood, P. E.

2001-01-01

Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species—declining from west to east—together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located. PMID:11606729

Evaluation of the spatial and temporal distribution of and risk factors for Bluetongue serotype 1 epidemics in sheep Extremadura (Spain), 2007-2011.

PubMed

Pascual-Linaza, Ana V; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Moreno, José Carlos; Sanz, Cristina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2014-10-01

Extremadura has been one of the regions in Spain most severely affected by Bluetongue (BT) epidemics. The first incursion of BTV, which was successfully eradicated one year later, occurred in 2004, involving the BTV-serotype 4. However, a second incursion occurred in September 2007, this time involving serotype 1. Since then, the implementation of intensive vaccination programs have significantly reduced BTV-1 occurrence, but the disease has not been completely eradicated yet. This study aimed to provide, for the first time, a complete description of the spatial and temporal patterns of BTV-1 occurrence in sheep in Extremadura from 2007 to 2011 and to identify the risk factors that contributed to the seasonal occurrence of BTV-1 in this region. The results showed that risk factors contributing to BTV-1 occurrence in sheep changed between 2007 and 2011. Initially, when the population was still immunologically naïve, the main risk factors for BTV-1 occurrence were extensive management practices, large sheep farms and Culicoides abundance on farms. However, after the implementation of vaccination, other factors became more relevant for BTV-1 occurrence, mostly related to BTV reservoirs, such as the proximity of cattle farms or the introduction of cattle into farms. The Talaverana sheep breed also seemed to be associated with a significantly higher risk of BTV-1 occurrence, although it may be due to confounding factors, such as the geographical concentration of where this breed is kept and/or management practises used for this breed. The results of this study suggest that preventive and control strategies, including vaccination and active surveillance strategies, should be primarily focused on cattle farms kept in close vicinity to sheep flocks as well as in high-risk sheep farms (i.e. farms with a large farm size keeping both cattle and sheep and with a high number of animal introductions). Methods and results presented here may be used to guide decisions for the annual update of the control and eradication program in Spain. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Co-occurrence of soil fauna communities with changes in altitude on the northern slope of Changbai Mountain].

PubMed

Tong, Fuchun; Jin, Zhedong; Wang, Qingli; Xiao, Yihua

2003-10-01

The co-occurrence of soil fauna communities at different altitudes may reflect at some extent the relationships among communities, their coexistence, and the replacement of species along the altitude gradient. The continuous or disjunctive distribution of different species along altitude gradient not only reflected the environment variation at altitude gradient, but also the biological and ecological spatiality as well as the adaptability of species. The northern slope of Changbai Moutain has not only a high diversity in soil fauna types and species, but also a high variation of diversity pattern along the altitude gradient, which is a perfect transect for the research of biodiversity and gradient patterns. From 550 m to 2,560 m on the northern slope of Changbai Mountain, twenty-two plots were investigated with an interval of 100 m in altitude. By using Jaccard index, the co-occurrence of soil fauna communities at different altitudes was analyzed. For the species of different life forms or for all the species as a whole, the co-occurrence of soil faunae between neighboring communities was the highest, except for that between different soil fauna types. The peak and valley values of the co-occurrence of soil fauna communities along altitude gradient were matched with their gradient patterns, and the co-occurrence of soil faunae at different layers or all of the soil fauna communities were decreased with increasing altitude difference.

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xudong; Zhang, Jie; Fan, Chenqing; Meng, Junmin; Wang, Jing; Wan, Yong

2018-06-01

The 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) proposed by China strongly promotes the maritime industry. In this paper, we use wind and ocean wave datasets from 1979 to 2014 to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of the wind speed, significant wave height (SWH), mean wave direction (MWD), and mean wave period (MWP) in the MSR. The analysis results indicate that the Luzon Strait and Gulf of Aden have the most obvious seasonal variations and that the central Indian Ocean is relatively stable. We analyzed the distributions of the maximum wind speed and SWH in the MSR over this 36-year period. The results show that the distribution of the monthly average frequency for SWH exceeds 4 m (huge waves) and that of the corresponding wind speed exceeds 13.9 m s-1 (high wind speed). The occurrence frequencies of huge waves and high winds in regions east of the Gulf of Aden are as high as 56% and 80%, respectively. We also assessed the wave and wind energies in different seasons. Based on our analyses, we propose a risk factor (RF) for determining navigation safety levels, based on the wind speed and SWH. We determine the spatial and temporal RF distributions for different seasons and analyze the corresponding impact on four major sea routes. Finally, we determine the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015 and analyze the corresponding impact on the four sea routes. The analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the MSR provides references for ship navigation as well as ocean engineering.

Biogeographical profiles of shorebird migration in midcontinental North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Sharpe, Peter B.; Waltermire, Robert G.; Dillon, M. Beth

1999-01-01

The biogeographic information described here will help identify the uniqueness of different regions of the plains to migrating shorebirds. Although shorebirds migrating along Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas are capable of long jumps between refueling stops, there is evidence that some species move short rather than long distances between refueling sites. Maps of distribution patterns and chronology accounts can lend insight towards understanding migration strategies of the different shorebird species.This report focuses on the distribution patterns of enroute migrants that refuel in interior wetlands during migration. We provide information on the spatial and temporal occurrence and habitat requirements for individual species and groups of species with the intent that this information be used in guiding management efforts.

Antibiotics in the coastal environment of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea: Spatial distribution, source analysis and ecological risks.

PubMed

Chen, Hui; Liu, Shan; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Liu, Shuang-Shuang; Yue, Wei-Zhong; Sun, Kai-Feng; Ying, Guang-Guo

2015-06-15

In this study, the occurrence and spatial distribution of 38 antibiotics in surface water and sediment samples of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea, were investigated. Twenty-one, 16 and 15 of 38 antibiotics were detected with the concentrations ranging from <0.08 (clarithromycin) to 15,163ng/L (oxytetracycline), 2.12 (methacycline) to 1318ng/L (erythromycin-H2O), <1.95 (ciprofloxacin) to 184ng/g (chlortetracycline) in the seawater, discharged effluent and sediment samples, respectively. The concentrations of antibiotics in the water phase were correlated positively with chemical oxygen demand and nitrate. The source analysis indicated that untreated domestic sewage was the primary source of antibiotics in the study region. Fluoroquinolones showed strong sorption capacity onto sediments due to their high pseudo-partitioning coefficients. Risk assessment indicated that oxytetracycline, norfloxacin and erythromycin-H2O posed high risks to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Ionospheric Scintillation Characteristics in Sub-Antarctica Region with GNSS Data at Macquarie Island.

PubMed

Guo, Kai; Liu, Yang; Zhao, Yan; Wang, Jinling

2017-01-12

Ionospheric scintillation has a great impact on radio propagation and electronic system performance, thus is extensively studied currently. The influence of scintillation on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is particularly evident, making GNSS an effective medium to study characteristics of scintillation. Ionospheric scintillation varies greatly in relation with temporal and spatial distribution. In this paper, both temporal and spatial characteristics of scintillation are investigated based on Macquarie Island's GNSS scintillation data collected from 2011 to 2015. Experiments demonstrate that occurrence rates of amplitude scintillation have a close relationship with solar activity, while phase scintillation is more likely to be generated by geomagnetic activity. In addition, scintillation distribution behaviors related to elevation and azimuth angles are statistically analyzed for both amplitude and phase scintillation. The proposed work is valuable for a deeper understanding of theoretical mechanisms of ionospheric scintillation in this region, and provides a reference for GNSS applications in certain regions around sub-Antarctica.

Concentrations and spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nitrated PAHs (NPAHs) in the atmosphere of North China, and the transformation from PAHs to NPAHs.

PubMed

Lin, Yan; Qiu, Xinghua; Ma, Yiqiu; Ma, Jin; Zheng, Mei; Shao, Min

2015-01-01

The occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nitrated derivatives (NPAHs), as well as their transformation may have significant health impacts on humans. To investigate the level, spatial distribution and the transformation process of PAHs and NPAHs in North China, we performed a griddedfield passive air sampling campaign in summer of 2011. The median concentration of 25 PAH congeners and 13 NPAHs was 294 ng m(-3) (or 26.7 mg sample(-1)) and 203 ng sample(-1), respectively. Relative higher level of PAHs in Shanxi Province and NPAHs in megacities was observed. In North China, coal/biomass combustion and photochemical formation was the predominant source of PAHs and NPAHs, respectively.To investigate the relationship between these pollutants, a model incorporating NPAHs, PAHs and NO(2) was established, and the result indicated that NO(2) will promote the transformation processes from PAHs to NPAHs, which may increase the total toxicity of PAH-NPAH mixtures.

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning.

PubMed

Isaak, Daniel J; Wenger, Seth J; Young, Michael K

2017-04-01

Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms, but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant to conservation planning has been limited by small or sparse data sets. Here, we combine a large occurrence database of >23 000 aquatic species surveys with stream microclimate scenarios supported by an equally large temperature database for a 149 000-km mountain stream network to describe thermal relationships for 14 fish and amphibian species. Species occurrence probabilities peaked across a wide range of temperatures (7.0-18.8°C) but distinct warm- or cold-edge distribution boundaries were apparent for all species and represented environments where populations may be most sensitive to thermal changes. Warm-edge boundary temperatures for a native species of conservation concern were used with geospatial data sets and a habitat occupancy model to highlight subsets of the network where conservation measures could benefit local populations by maintaining cool temperatures. Linking that strategic approach to local estimates of habitat impairment remains a key challenge but is also an opportunity to build relationships and develop synergies between the research, management, and regulatory communities. As with any data mining or species distribution modeling exercise, care is required in analysis and interpretation of results, but the use of large biological data sets with accurate microclimate scenarios can provide valuable information about the thermal ecology of many ectotherms and a spatially explicit way of guiding conservation investments. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy microscopic imaging classification based on spatial-spectral features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lian; Yang, Xiukun; Zhong, Mingliang; Liu, Yao; Jing, Xiaojun; Yang, Qin

2018-04-01

The discrete fractional Brownian incremental random (DFBIR) field is used to describe the irregular, random, and highly complex shapes of natural objects such as coastlines and biological tissues, for which traditional Euclidean geometry cannot be used. In this paper, an anisotropic variable window (AVW) directional operator based on the DFBIR field model is proposed for extracting spatial characteristics of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) microscopic imaging. Probabilistic principal component analysis first extracts spectral features, and then the spatial features of the proposed AVW directional operator are combined with the former to construct a spatial-spectral structure, which increases feature-related information and helps a support vector machine classifier to obtain more efficient distribution-related information. Compared to Haralick’s grey-level co-occurrence matrix, Gabor filters, and local binary patterns (e.g. uniform LBPs, rotation-invariant LBPs, uniform rotation-invariant LBPs), experiments on three FTIR spectroscopy microscopic imaging datasets show that the proposed AVW directional operator is more advantageous in terms of classification accuracy, particularly for low-dimensional spaces of spatial characteristics.

Longitudinal evaluation of T1ρ and T2 spatial distribution in osteoarthritic and healthy medial knee cartilage.

PubMed

Schooler, J; Kumar, D; Nardo, L; McCulloch, C; Li, X; Link, T M; Majumdar, S

2014-01-01

To investigate longitudinal changes in laminar and spatial distribution of knee articular cartilage magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) T1ρ and T2 relaxation times, in individuals with and without medial compartment cartilage defects. All subjects (at baseline n = 88, >18 years old) underwent 3-Tesla knee MRI at baseline and annually thereafter for 3 years. The MR studies were evaluated for presence of cartilage defects (modified Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring - mWORMS), and quantitative T1ρ and T2 relaxation time maps. Subjects were segregated into those with (mWORMS ≥2) and without (mWORMS ≤1) cartilage lesions at the medial tibia (MT) or medial femur (MF) at each time point. Laminar (bone and articular layer) and spatial (gray level co-occurrence matrix - GLCM) distribution of the T1ρ and T2 relaxation time maps were calculated. Linear regression models (cross-sectional) and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) (longitudinal) were used. Global T1ρ, global T2 and articular layer T2 relaxation times at the MF, and global and articular layer T2 relaxation times at the MT, were higher in subjects with cartilage lesions compared to those without lesions. At the MT global T1ρ relaxation times were higher at each time point in subjects with lesions. MT T1ρ and T2 became progressively more heterogeneous than control compartments over the course of the study. Spatial distribution of T1ρ and T2 relaxation time maps in medial knee OA using GLCM technique may be a sensitive indicator of cartilage deterioration, in addition to whole-compartment relaxation time data. Copyright © 2013 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity and Spatiotemporal Distribution of Larval Odonate Assemblages in Temperate Neotropical Farm Ponds

PubMed Central

Pires, Mateus Marques; Kotzian, Carla Bender; Spies, Marcia Regina

2014-01-01

Abstract Farm ponds help maintain diversity in altered landscapes. However, studies on the features that drive this type of property in the Neotropics are still lacking, especially for the insect fauna. We analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of odonate larval assemblages in farm ponds. Odonates were sampled monthly at four farm ponds from March 2008 to February 2009 in a temperate montane region of southern Brazil. A small number of genera were frequent and accounted for most of the dominant fauna. The dominant genera composition differed among ponds. Local spatial drivers such as area, hydroperiod, and margin vegetation structure likely explain these results more than spatial predictors due to the small size of the study area. Circular analysis detected seasonal effect on assemblage abundance but not on richness. Seasonality in abundance was related to the life cycles of a few dominant genera. This result was explained by temperature and not rainfall due to the temperate climate of the region studied. The persistence of dominant genera and the sparse occurrence of many taxa over time probably led to a lack in a seasonal pattern in assemblage richness. PMID:25527585

Occurrence, distribution, and attenuation of pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the riverside groundwater of the Beiyun River of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Lei; He, Jiang-Tao; Su, Si-Hui; Cui, Ya-Feng; Huang, De-Liang; Wang, Guang-Cai

2017-06-01

This study investigated the occurrence, seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics, and attenuation process of 15 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in riverside sections of Beiyun River of Beijing. The overall PPCP levels both in surface water and riverside groundwater were moderate on the global scale, and showed higher concentrations in the dry season mainly caused by water temperature variation. Caffeine (CF), carbamazepine (CBZ), metoprolol (MTP), N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), diclofenac (DF), bezafibrate (BF), and gemfibrozil (GF) were seven representative PPCPs, because the rest eight studied compounds occurred in low concentrations and less than 15% of the total concentration of PPCPs. Caffeine and bezafibrate, respectively, was the most abundant compound in surface water and riverside groundwater, with median concentrations of 3020.0 and 125.0 ng L -1 . Total concentrations of PPCPs in surface water were much higher than those in the riverside groundwater spatially. Attenuation of PPCPs during riverbank filtration was largely depending on the sources, site hydrogeological conditions, and physical-chemical properties of PPCPs, also was influenced by dissolved organic matter and environmental physicochemical parameters. CF, MTP, DEET, and CBZ were potential groundwater attenuation contaminants; DF, BF, and GF were groundwater-enriched contaminants based on their removal rates. Predominant removal mechanism of PPCPs like CF was biodegradation. Attenuation simulation showed that the one-way supply between Beiyun River and riverside groundwater, and further confirmed Beiyun River, was the main source of pharmaceutical compounds in the riverside groundwater.

Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

PubMed

Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

2011-01-01

If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables were not available at large extents. No single model met all habitat prioritization criteria, and the best models were overlaid to identify consensus areas of high suitability. Although the four species modeled here co-occur and are treated together for conservation planning, model accuracy and predicted suitable areas varied among species.

Shipping and natural environmental conditions determine the distribution of the invasive non-indigenous round goby Neogobius melanostomus in a regional sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotta, Jonne; Nurkse, Kristiina; Puntila, Riikka; Ojaveer, Henn

2016-02-01

Introductions of non-indigenous species (NIS) are considered a major threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide. While it is valuable to know the distributions and ranges of NIS, predictive spatial models along different environmental gradients are more useful for management of these species. In this study we modelled how external drivers and local environmental conditions contribute to the spatial distribution of an invasive species using the distribution of the round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea as an example. Using the collected distribution data, an updated map on the species distribution and its invasion progress in the Baltic Sea was produced. The current range of the round goby observations is extensive, covering all major sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. The most recent observations appeared in the northern regions (Northern Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland) and on the eastern and western coasts of southern Sweden. Modelling results show that the distribution of the round goby is primarily related to local abiotic hydrological conditions (wave exposure). Furthermore, the probability of round goby occurrence was very high in areas in close proximity to large cargo ports. This links patterns of the round goby distribution in the Baltic Sea to shipping traffic and suggests that human factors together with natural environmental conditions are responsible for the spread of NIS at a regional sea scale.

Heart-Brain Interactions in the MR Environment: Characterization of the Ballistocardiogram in EEG Signals Collected During Simultaneous fMRI.

PubMed

Marino, Marco; Liu, Quanying; Del Castello, Mariangela; Corsi, Cristiana; Wenderoth, Nicole; Mantini, Dante

2018-05-01

The ballistocardiographic (BCG) artifact is linked to cardiac activity and occurs in electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings acquired inside the magnetic resonance (MR) environment. Its variability in terms of amplitude, waveform shape and spatial distribution over subject's scalp makes its attenuation a challenging task. In this study, we aimed to provide a detailed characterization of the BCG properties, including its temporal dependency on cardiac events and its spatio-temporal dynamics. To this end, we used high-density EEG data acquired during simultaneous functional MR imaging in six healthy volunteers. First, we investigated the relationship between cardiac activity and BCG occurrences in the EEG recordings. We observed large variability in the delay between ECG and subsequent BCG events (ECG-BCG delay) across subjects and non-negligible epoch-by-epoch variations at the single subject level. The inspection of spatial-temporal variations revealed a prominent non-stationarity of the BCG signal. We identified five main BCG waves, which were common across subjects. Principal component analysis revealed two spatially distinct patterns to explain most of the variance (85% in total). These components are possibly related to head rotation and pulse-driven scalp expansion, respectively. Our results may inspire the development of novel, more effective methods for the removal of the BCG, capable of isolating and attenuating artifact occurrences while preserving true neuronal activity.

Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagan, Yan Y.

2010-03-01

We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously, we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson, geometric, logarithmic and the negative binomial (NBD). The theoretical model is the `birth and immigration' population process. The first three distributions above can be considered special cases of the NBD. In particular, a point branching process along the magnitude (or log seismic moment) axis with independent events (immigrants) explains the magnitude/moment-frequency relation and the NBD of earthquake counts in large time/space windows, as well as the dependence of the NBD parameters on the magnitude threshold (magnitude of an earthquake catalogue completeness). We discuss applying these distributions, especially the NBD, to approximate event numbers in earthquake catalogues. There are many different representations of the NBD. Most can be traced either to the Pascal distribution or to the mixture of the Poisson distribution with the gamma law. We discuss advantages and drawbacks of both representations for statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues. We also consider applying the NBD to earthquake forecasts and describe the limits of the application for the given equations. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrence, the NBD has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize clustering or overdispersion of a process. We determine the parameter values and their uncertainties for several local and global catalogues, and their subdivisions in various time intervals, magnitude thresholds, spatial windows, and tectonic categories. The theoretical model of how the clustering parameter depends on the corner (maximum) magnitude can be used to predict future earthquake number distribution in regions where very large earthquakes have not yet occurred.

Decomposing risk: landscape structure and wolf behavior generate different predation patterns in two sympatric ungulates.

PubMed

Gervasi, Vincenzo; Sand, Hakan; Zimmermann, Barbara; Mattisson, Jenny; Wabakken, Petter; Linnell, John D C

2013-10-01

Recolonizing carnivores can have a large impact on the status of wild ungulates, which have often modified their behavior in the absence of predation. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of reestablished predator-prey systems is crucial to predict their potential ecosystem effects. We decomposed the spatial structure of predation by recolonizing wolves (Canis lupus) on two sympatric ungulates, moose (Alces alces) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), in Scandinavia during a 10-year study. We monitored 18 wolves with GPS collars, distributed over 12 territories, and collected records from predation events. By using conditional logistic regression, we assessed the contributions of three main factors, the utilization patterns of each wolf territory, the spatial distribution of both prey species, and fine-scale landscape structure, in determining the spatial structure of moose and roe deer predation risk. The reestablished predator-prey system showed a remarkable spatial variation in kill occurrence at the intra-territorial level, with kill probabilities varying by several orders of magnitude inside the same territory. Variation in predation risk was evident also when a spatially homogeneous probability for a wolf to encounter a prey was simulated. Even inside the same territory, with the same landscape structure, and when exposed to predation by the same wolves, the two prey species experienced an opposite spatial distribution of predation risk. In particular, increased predation risk for moose was associated with open areas, especially clearcuts and young forest stands, whereas risk was lowered for roe deer in the same habitat types. Thus, fine-scale landscape structure can generate contrasting predation risk patterns in sympatric ungulates, so that they can experience large differences in the spatial distribution of risk and refuge areas when exposed to predation by a recolonizing predator. Territories with an earlier recolonization were not associated with a lower hunting success for wolves. Such constant efficiency in wolf predation during the recolonization process is in line with previous findings about the naive nature of Scandinavian moose to wolf predation. This, together with the human-dominated nature of the Scandinavian ecosystem, seems to limit the possibility for wolves to have large ecosystem effects and to establish a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade in Scandinavia.

Influence of land use and meteorological factors on the spatial distribution of Toxocara canis and Toxocara cati eggs in soil in urban areas.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Wang, Hongbin; Li, Jianxin; Qin, Hongyu; Xiao, Jianhua

2017-01-15

Soil which has been contaminated by Toxocara spp. eggs is considered as one of the main infection sources of Toxocariasis in animals and humans. The present study conducted a detailed investigation into the spatial patterns of Toxocara canis (T. canis) and Toxocara cati (T. cati) eggs in soil in urban area of northeastern Mainland China, and assessed the inter-relationships between meteorological factors, land use and the distribution of the Toxocara spp. eggs. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the determination of T. canis and T. cati eggs contamination in soil samples. Between April 2014 and May 2015, 9420 soil samples were subjected to PCR examination and 7027 sheep (74.6%) were determined to be positive for T. canis and T. cati eggs. Subsequently, we evaluated the effect of land use, and meteorological factors on the spatial distribution of T. canis and T. cati eggs based on a maximum entropy model. Jackknife analysis revealed that the area of residential land, wood and grass land and precipitation may influence the occurrence of T. canis and T. cati eggs in soil. Our findings indicate that land use and meteorological factors may be important variables affecting transmission of Toxocariasis and should be taken into account in the development of future surveillance programmes for Toxocariasis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal zone color scanner pigment concentrations in the southern ocean and relationships to geophysical surface features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, J. C.; Mcclain, C. R.; Sullivan, C. W.; Ryan, J. P.; Leonard, C. L.

1993-01-01

Climatological data on the distribution of surface pigment fields in the entire southern ocean over a seasonal cycle are examined. The occurrence of intense phytoplankton blooms during austral summer months and during other seasons in different regions is identified and analyzed. The highest pigment concentrations are observed at high latitudes and over regions with water depths usually less than 600 m. Basin-scale pigment distribution shows a slightly asymmetric pattern of enhanced pigment concentrations about Antarctica, with enhanced concentrations extending to lower latitudes in the Atlantic and Indian sectors than in the Pacific sector. A general increase in pigment concentrations is evident from the low latitudes toward the Antarctic circumpolar region. Spatial relationships between pigment and archived geophysical data reveal significant correlation between pigment distributions and both bathymetry and wind stress, while general hemispheric scale patterns of pigment distributions are most coherent with the geostrophic flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Plan for assessment of the occurrence, status, and distribution of volatile organic compounds in aquifers of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lapham, W.W.; Tadayon, Saeid

1996-01-01

The occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in water is of national concern because of their relatively high aqueous solubility, mobility, and persistence, because many are known or suspected carcinogens, because of their widespread use, and because they have been found in drinking-water supplies. Because of this national concern, VOCs were selected for National investigation (hereafter termed "National Synthesis") by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program in 1994. The broad goals of this National Synthesis are to: (1) describe current water- quality conditions with respect to VOCs; (2) define trends, or lack of trends, in VOCs in surface and ground water; and (3) identify, describe, and explain causal relations among the occurrence and distribution of VOCs in surface water and ground water, and natural and human factors. The National Synthesis of VOCs in ground water has three objectives: (1) to describe their occurrence, status, and distribution; (2) to determine relations among VOCs in shallow ground water and natural and human factors; and (3) to determine, compare, and contrast the occurrence, transformation, transport, and fate of selected VOCs in the hydrologic cycle for several regionally or nationally important aquifer systems. The description of VOC occurrence, status, and distribution in ground water focuses on major aquifers of the United States. Occurrence describes the presence or absence of VOCs, their frequency of occurrence, and their ranges of concentrations. Status compares the concentrations of VOCs detected in relation to water-quality regulations or advisories, such as Maximum Contaminant Levels, Proposed Maximum Contaminant Levels, Maximum Contaminant Level Goals, and Health Advisories. Distribution describes the variability of VOCs in ground water, areally and by depth. This report describes the study design for conducting such an assessment. The assessment focuses on aquifers, or parts of aquifers, that are currently used or have the potential to be used as sources of water supplies, using data collected as part of local, State, and Federal ground-water monitoring programs since 1985. Assessment by aquifer and comparison of results among aquifers will be completed for those aquifers for which adequate spatial or depth-related data are available. Assessment of VOCs in aquifers also will be completed at regional and national scales. A set of criteria for well-network design, well construction, sample-collection methods, and methods of laboratory analysis must be met before VOC data are used for assessment. An appropriate well-network design will provide a generally unbiased, random, equal-area distribution of sampling sites throughout the aquifer, or part of the aquifer, of interest. Well-construction information must be sufficient to ensure that the hydrogeologic unit (or units) represented by the water level measured and the hydrologic unit (or units) contributing water to the well are known. In addition, the well construction and pumping equipment in the well need to be of a type that are not likely to affect concentrations of VOCs in the water sample. VOC data will be considered suitable for use in the occurrence assessment if nationally accepted methods for collection and analysis were used and if the quantitation level for VOC analytes was less than about 5 micrograms per liter; laboratory analysis was done by a laboratory certified by the U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency; and the sample was collected from untreated (raw) water at or near the well head before being held in a pressure tank or holding tank.

Spatial and space-time clustering of tuberculosis in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tadesse, Sebsibe; Enqueselassie, Fikre; Hagos, Seifu

2018-01-01

Spatial targeting is advocated as an effective method that contributes for achieving tuberculosis control in high-burden countries. However, there is a paucity of studies clarifying the spatial nature of the disease in these countries. This study aims to identify the location, size and risk of purely spatial and space-time clusters for high occurrence of tuberculosis in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia during 2007 to 2016. A total of 15,805 patient data that were retrieved from unit TB registers were included in the final analyses. The spatial and space-time cluster analyses were performed using the global Moran's I, Getis-Ord [Formula: see text] and Kulldorff's scan statistics. Eleven purely spatial and three space-time clusters were detected (P <0.001).The clusters were concentrated in border areas of the Gurage Zone. There were considerable spatial variations in the risk of tuberculosis by year during the study period. This study showed that tuberculosis clusters were mainly concentrated at border areas of the Gurage Zone during the study period, suggesting that there has been sustained transmission of the disease within these locations. The findings may help intensify the implementation of tuberculosis control activities in these locations. Further study is warranted to explore the roles of various ecological factors on the observed spatial distribution of tuberculosis.

Termites Are Resistant to the Effects of Fire at Multiple Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Avitabile, Sarah C; Nimmo, Dale G; Bennett, Andrew F; Clarke, Michael F

2015-01-01

Termites play an important ecological role in many ecosystems, particularly in nutrient-poor arid and semi-arid environments. We examined the distribution and occurrence of termites in the fire-prone, semi-arid mallee region of south-eastern Australia. In addition to periodic large wildfires, land managers use fire as a tool to achieve both asset protection and ecological outcomes in this region. Twelve taxa of termites were detected by using systematic searches and grids of cellulose baits at 560 sites, clustered in 28 landscapes selected to represent different fire mosaic patterns. There was no evidence of a significant relationship between the occurrence of termite species and time-since-fire at the site scale. Rather, the occurrence of species was related to habitat features such as the density of mallee trees and large logs (>10 cm diameter). Species richness was greater in chenopod mallee vegetation on heavier soils in swales, rather than Triodia mallee vegetation of the sandy dune slopes. At the landscape scale, there was little evidence that the frequency of occurrence of termite species was related to fire, and no evidence that habitat heterogeneity generated by fire influenced termite species richness. The most influential factor at the landscape scale was the environmental gradient represented by average annual rainfall. Although termites may be associated with flammable habitat components (e.g. dead wood), they appear to be buffered from the effects of fire by behavioural traits, including nesting underground, and the continued availability of dead wood after fire. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that a fine-scale, diverse mosaic of post-fire age-classes will enhance the diversity of termites. Rather, termites appear to be resistant to the effects of fire at multiple spatial scales.

Termites Are Resistant to the Effects of Fire at Multiple Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Avitabile, Sarah C.; Nimmo, Dale G.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Clarke, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Termites play an important ecological role in many ecosystems, particularly in nutrient-poor arid and semi-arid environments. We examined the distribution and occurrence of termites in the fire-prone, semi-arid mallee region of south-eastern Australia. In addition to periodic large wildfires, land managers use fire as a tool to achieve both asset protection and ecological outcomes in this region. Twelve taxa of termites were detected by using systematic searches and grids of cellulose baits at 560 sites, clustered in 28 landscapes selected to represent different fire mosaic patterns. There was no evidence of a significant relationship between the occurrence of termite species and time-since-fire at the site scale. Rather, the occurrence of species was related to habitat features such as the density of mallee trees and large logs (>10 cm diameter). Species richness was greater in chenopod mallee vegetation on heavier soils in swales, rather than Triodia mallee vegetation of the sandy dune slopes. At the landscape scale, there was little evidence that the frequency of occurrence of termite species was related to fire, and no evidence that habitat heterogeneity generated by fire influenced termite species richness. The most influential factor at the landscape scale was the environmental gradient represented by average annual rainfall. Although termites may be associated with flammable habitat components (e.g. dead wood), they appear to be buffered from the effects of fire by behavioural traits, including nesting underground, and the continued availability of dead wood after fire. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that a fine-scale, diverse mosaic of post-fire age-classes will enhance the diversity of termites. Rather, termites appear to be resistant to the effects of fire at multiple spatial scales. PMID:26571383

Assessment of mesoscale convective systems using IR brightness temperature in the southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafati, Somayeh; Karimi, Mostafa

2017-07-01

In this research, the spatial and temporal distribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems was assessed in the southwest of Iran using Global merged satellite IR brightness temperature (acquired from Meteosat, GOES, and GMS geostationary satellites) and synoptic station data. Event days were selected using a set of storm reports and precipitation criteria. The following criteria are used to determine the days with occurrence of convective systems: (1) at least one station reported 6-h precipitation exceeding 10 mm and (2) at least three stations reported phenomena related to convection (thunderstorm, lightning, and shower). MCSs were detected based on brightness temperature, maximum areal extent, and duration thresholds (228 K, 10,000 km2, and 3 h, respectively). An MCS occurrence classification system is developed based on mean sea level, 850 and 500 hPa pressure patterns.

Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

2018-02-01

Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation, and the surface latent heating has only a slight impact on the precipitation intensity. The results indicate that microphysical latent heating might be an important factor for severe precipitation forecast in the warm sector over southern China. Surface sensible heating can have considerable influence on the precipitation spatial distribution and should not be neglected in the case of weak large-scale conditions with abundant water vapor in the warm sector.

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

PubMed

Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

2016-12-15

Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The remarkable geographical pattern of gastric cancer mortality in Ecuador.

PubMed

Montero-Oleas, Nadia; Núñez-González, Solange; Simancas-Racines, Daniel

2017-12-01

This study was aimed to describe the gastric cancer mortality trend, and to analyze the spatial distribution of gastric cancer mortality in Ecuador, between 2004 and 2015. Data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) database. Crude gastric cancer mortality rates, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and indirect standardized mortality rates (ISMRs) were calculated per 100,000 persons. For time trend analysis, joinpoint regression was used. The annual percentage rate change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was computed for each province. Spatial age-adjusted analysis was used to detect high risk clusters of gastric cancer mortality, from 2010 to 2015, using Kulldorff spatial scan statistics. In Ecuador, between 2004 and 2015, gastric cancer caused a total of 19,115 deaths: 10,679 in men and 8436 in women. When crude rates were analyzed, a significant decline was detected (AAPC: -1.8%; p<0.001). ISMR also decreased, but this change was not statistically significant (APC: -0.53%; p=0.36). From 2004 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2011 the province with the highest ISMR was Carchi; and, from 2012 to 2015, was Cotopaxi. The most likely high occurrence cluster included Bolívar, Los Ríos, Chimborazo, Tungurahua, and Cotopaxi provinces, with a relative risk of 1.34 (p<0.001). There is a substantial geographic variation in gastric cancer mortality rates among Ecuadorian provinces. The spatial analysis indicates the presence of high occurrence clusters throughout the Andes Mountains. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan.

PubMed

Fatima, Syeda Hira; Atif, Salman; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Zaidi, Farrah; Hussain, Ejaz

2016-03-01

Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon. The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions. Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species. In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.; Gautier, R.; Schmid, Hans

2007-01-01

Many estimation and inference problems arising from large-scale animal surveys are focused on developing an understanding of patterns in abundance or occurrence of a species based on spatially referenced count data. One fundamental challenge, then, is that it is generally not feasible to completely enumerate ('census') all individuals present in each sample unit. This observation bias may consist of several components, including spatial coverage bias (not all individuals in the Population are exposed to sampling) and detection bias (exposed individuals may go undetected). Thus, observations are biased for the state variable (abundance, occupancy) that is the object of inference. Moreover, data are often sparse for most observation locations, requiring consideration of methods for spatially aggregating or otherwise combining sparse data among sample units. The development of methods that unify spatial statistical models with models accommodating non-detection is necessary to resolve important spatial inference problems based on animal survey data. In this paper, we develop a novel hierarchical spatial model for estimation of abundance and occurrence from survey data wherein detection is imperfect. Our application is focused on spatial inference problems in the Swiss Survey of Common Breeding Birds. The observation model for the survey data is specified conditional on the unknown quadrat population size, N(s). We augment the observation model with a spatial process model for N(s), describing the spatial variation in abundance of the species. The model includes explicit sources of variation in habitat structure (forest, elevation) and latent variation in the form of a correlated spatial process. This provides a model-based framework for combining the spatially referenced samples while at the same time yielding a unified treatment of estimation problems involving both abundance and occurrence. We provide a Bayesian framework for analysis and prediction based on the integrated likelihood, and we use the model to obtain estimates of abundance and occurrence maps for the European Jay (Garrulus glandarius), a widespread, elusive, forest bird. The naive national abundance estimate ignoring imperfect detection and incomplete quadrat coverage was 77 766 territories. Accounting for imperfect detection added approximately 18 000 territories, and adjusting for coverage bias added another 131 000 territories to yield a fully corrected estimate of the national total of about 227 000 territories. This is approximately three times as high as previous estimates that assume every territory is detected in each quadrat.

Overview and early results of the Global Lightning and Sprite Measurements mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, M.; Ushio, T.; Morimoto, T.; Kikuchi, M.; Kikuchi, H.; Adachi, T.; Suzuki, M.; Yamazaki, A.; Takahashi, Y.; Inan, U.; Linscott, I.; Ishida, R.; Sakamoto, Y.; Yoshida, K.; Hobara, Y.; Sano, T.; Abe, T.; Nakamura, M.; Oda, H.; Kawasaki, Z.-I.

2015-05-01

Global Lightning and Sprite Measurements on Japanese Experiment Module (JEM-GLIMS) is a space mission to conduct the nadir observations of lightning discharges and transient luminous events (TLEs). The main objectives of this mission are to identify the horizontal distribution of TLEs and to solve the occurrence conditions determining the spatial distribution. JEM-GLIMS was successfully launched and started continuous nadir observations in 2012. The global distribution of the detected lightning events shows that most of the events occurred over continental regions in the local summer hemisphere. In some events, strong far-ultraviolet emissions have been simultaneously detected with N2 1P and 2P emissions by the spectrophotometers, which strongly suggest the occurrence of TLEs. Especially, in some of these events, no significant optical emission was measured by the narrowband filter camera, which suggests the occurrence of elves, not sprites. The VLF receiver also succeeded in detecting lightning whistlers, which show clear falling-tone frequency dispersion. Based on the optical data, the time delay from the detected lightning emission to the whistlers was identified as ˜10 ms, which can be reasonably explained by the wave propagation with the group velocity of whistlers. The VHF interferometer conducted the spaceborne interferometric observations and succeeded in detecting VHF pulses. We observed that the VHF pulses are likely to be excited by the lightning discharge possibly related with in-cloud discharges and measured with the JEM-GLIMS optical instruments. Thus, JEM-GLIMS provides the first full set of optical and electromagnetic data of lightning and TLEs obtained by nadir observations from space.

Year-round spatiotemporal distribution of harbour porpoises within and around the Maryland wind energy area

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Michael; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Roberts, Jason J.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Rice, Aaron N.; Bailey, Helen

2017-01-01

Offshore windfarms provide renewable energy, but activities during the construction phase can affect marine mammals. To understand how the construction of an offshore windfarm in the Maryland Wind Energy Area (WEA) off Maryland, USA, might impact harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), it is essential to determine their poorly understood year-round distribution. Although habitat-based models can help predict the occurrence of species in areas with limited or no sampling, they require validation to determine the accuracy of the predictions. Incorporating more than 18 months of harbour porpoise detection data from passive acoustic monitoring, generalized auto-regressive moving average and generalized additive models were used to investigate harbour porpoise occurrence within and around the Maryland WEA in relation to temporal and environmental variables. Acoustic detection metrics were compared to habitat-based density estimates derived from aerial and boat-based sightings to validate the model predictions. Harbour porpoises occurred significantly more frequently during January to May, and foraged significantly more often in the evenings to early mornings at sites within and outside the Maryland WEA. Harbour porpoise occurrence peaked at sea surface temperatures of 5°C and chlorophyll a concentrations of 4.5 to 7.4 mg m-3. The acoustic detections were significantly correlated with the predicted densities, except at the most inshore site. This study provides insight into previously unknown fine-scale spatial and temporal patterns in distribution of harbour porpoises offshore of Maryland. The results can be used to help inform future monitoring and mitigate the impacts of windfarm construction and other human activities. PMID:28467455

Year-round spatiotemporal distribution of harbour porpoises within and around the Maryland wind energy area.

PubMed

Wingfield, Jessica E; O'Brien, Michael; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Roberts, Jason J; Halpin, Patrick N; Rice, Aaron N; Bailey, Helen

2017-01-01

Offshore windfarms provide renewable energy, but activities during the construction phase can affect marine mammals. To understand how the construction of an offshore windfarm in the Maryland Wind Energy Area (WEA) off Maryland, USA, might impact harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), it is essential to determine their poorly understood year-round distribution. Although habitat-based models can help predict the occurrence of species in areas with limited or no sampling, they require validation to determine the accuracy of the predictions. Incorporating more than 18 months of harbour porpoise detection data from passive acoustic monitoring, generalized auto-regressive moving average and generalized additive models were used to investigate harbour porpoise occurrence within and around the Maryland WEA in relation to temporal and environmental variables. Acoustic detection metrics were compared to habitat-based density estimates derived from aerial and boat-based sightings to validate the model predictions. Harbour porpoises occurred significantly more frequently during January to May, and foraged significantly more often in the evenings to early mornings at sites within and outside the Maryland WEA. Harbour porpoise occurrence peaked at sea surface temperatures of 5°C and chlorophyll a concentrations of 4.5 to 7.4 mg m-3. The acoustic detections were significantly correlated with the predicted densities, except at the most inshore site. This study provides insight into previously unknown fine-scale spatial and temporal patterns in distribution of harbour porpoises offshore of Maryland. The results can be used to help inform future monitoring and mitigate the impacts of windfarm construction and other human activities.

Environmental Determinants of the Occurrence and Distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Rias of Galicia, Spain▿

PubMed Central

Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Lozano-Leon, Antonio; Varela-Pet, Jose; Trinanes, Joaquin; Pazos, Yolanda; Garcia-Martin, Oscar

2008-01-01

Infections associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus on the coast of Galicia (in northwestern Spain) were reported to be linked to large outbreaks of illness during 1999 and 2000. Little information is available about the ecological factors that influence the emergence of V. parahaemolyticus infections in this temperate region. We carried out a 3-year study to investigate the occurrence and distribution of V. parahaemolyticus at 26 sites located in the four main rias of Galicia in association with environmental and oceanographic variables. V. parahaemolyticus was detected in all the areas investigated and throughout the complete period of study with an overall incidence of 12.5%. Salinity was the primary factor governing the temporal and spatial distribution of V. parahaemolyticus, whereas seawater temperature had a secondary effect and only modulated the abundance in periods and areas of reduced salinities. Higher occurrence of V. parahaemolyticus was observed during periods of lower salinity in autumn, with a total of 61 positive samples (18%) and a mean density of 1,234 most probable number/100 g. V. parahaemolyticus was primarily detected in areas of reduced salinity close to freshwater discharge points, where it was found in up to 45% of the samples. Characterization of the isolates obtained from the study resulted in the first identification of two pathogenic tdh-positive strains of V. parahaemolyticus recovered from the marine environment in Galicia. These isolates showed serotypes identical to and DNA profiles indistinguishable from those of the clinical clone of V. parahaemolyticus dominant in infections in Spain in the last 10 years. PMID:17981951

Non-random co-occurrence of native and exotic plant species in Mediterranean grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Miguel, José M.; Martín-Forés, Irene; Acosta-Gallo, Belén; del Pozo, Alejandro; Ovalle, Carlos; Sánchez-Jardón, Laura; Castro, Isabel; Casado, Miguel A.

2016-11-01

Invasion by exotic species in Mediterranean grasslands has determined assembly patterns of native and introduced species, knowledge of which provides information on the ecological processes underlying these novel communities. We considered grasslands from Spain and Chile. For each country we considered the whole grassland community and we split species into two subsets: in Chile, species were classified as natives or colonizers (i.e. exotics); in Spain, species were classified as exclusives (present in Spain but not in Chile) or colonizers (Spanish natives and exotics into Chile). We used null models and co-occurrence indices calculated in each country for each one of 15 sites distributed along a precipitation gradient and subjected to similar silvopastoral exploitation. We compared values of species co-occurrence between countries and between species subsets (natives/colonizers in Chile; exclusives/colonizers in Spain) within each country and we characterised them according to climatic variables. We hypothesized that: a) the different coexistence time of the species in both regions should give rise to communities presenting a spatial pattern further from random in Spain than in Chile, b) the co-occurrence patterns in the grasslands are affected by mesoclimatic factors in both regions. The patterns of co-occurrence are similar in Spain and Chile, mostly showing a spatial pattern more segregated than expected by random. The colonizer species are more segregated in Spain than in Chile, possibly determined by the longer residence time of the species in the source area than in the invaded one. The segregation of species in Chile is related to water availability, being species less segregated in habitat with greater water deficit; in Spain no relationship with climatic variables was found. After an invasion process, our results suggest that the possible process of alteration of the original Chilean communities has not prevented the assembly between the native and colonizer species together.

Spatial segregation in eastern North Pacific skate assemblages.

PubMed

Bizzarro, Joseph J; Broms, Kristin M; Logsdon, Miles G; Ebert, David A; Yoklavich, Mary M; Kuhnz, Linda A; Summers, Adam P

2014-01-01

Skates (Rajiformes: Rajoidei) are common mesopredators in marine benthic communities. The spatial associations of individual species and the structure of assemblages are of considerable importance for effective monitoring and management of exploited skate populations. This study investigated the spatial associations of eastern North Pacific (ENP) skates in continental shelf and upper continental slope waters of two regions: central California and the western Gulf of Alaska. Long-term survey data were analyzed using GIS/spatial analysis techniques and regression models to determine distribution (by depth, temperature, and latitude/longitude) and relative abundance of the dominant species in each region. Submersible video data were incorporated for California to facilitate habitat association analysis. We addressed three main questions: 1) Are there regions of differential importance to skates?, 2) Are ENP skate assemblages spatially segregated?, and 3) When skates co-occur, do they differ in size? Skate populations were highly clustered in both regions, on scales of 10s of kilometers; however, high-density regions (i.e., hot spots) were segregated among species. Skate densities and frequencies of occurrence were substantially lower in Alaska as compared to California. Although skates are generally found on soft sediment habitats, Raja rhina exhibited the strongest association with mixed substrates, and R. stellulata catches were greatest on rocky reefs. Size segregation was evident in regions where species overlapped substantially in geographic and depth distribution (e.g., R. rhina and Bathyraja kincaidii off California; B. aleutica and B. interrupta in the Gulf of Alaska). Spatial niche differentiation in skates appears to be more pronounced than previously reported.

Spatial Segregation in Eastern North Pacific Skate Assemblages

PubMed Central

Bizzarro, Joseph J.; Broms, Kristin M.; Logsdon, Miles G.; Ebert, David A.; Yoklavich, Mary M.; Kuhnz, Linda A.; Summers, Adam P.

2014-01-01

Skates (Rajiformes: Rajoidei) are common mesopredators in marine benthic communities. The spatial associations of individual species and the structure of assemblages are of considerable importance for effective monitoring and management of exploited skate populations. This study investigated the spatial associations of eastern North Pacific (ENP) skates in continental shelf and upper continental slope waters of two regions: central California and the western Gulf of Alaska. Long-term survey data were analyzed using GIS/spatial analysis techniques and regression models to determine distribution (by depth, temperature, and latitude/longitude) and relative abundance of the dominant species in each region. Submersible video data were incorporated for California to facilitate habitat association analysis. We addressed three main questions: 1) Are there regions of differential importance to skates?, 2) Are ENP skate assemblages spatially segregated?, and 3) When skates co-occur, do they differ in size? Skate populations were highly clustered in both regions, on scales of 10s of kilometers; however, high-density regions (i.e., hot spots) were segregated among species. Skate densities and frequencies of occurrence were substantially lower in Alaska as compared to California. Although skates are generally found on soft sediment habitats, Raja rhina exhibited the strongest association with mixed substrates, and R. stellulata catches were greatest on rocky reefs. Size segregation was evident in regions where species overlapped substantially in geographic and depth distribution (e.g., R. rhina and Bathyraja kincaidii off California; B. aleutica and B. interrupta in the Gulf of Alaska). Spatial niche differentiation in skates appears to be more pronounced than previously reported. PMID:25329312

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

On factors structuring the flatfish assemblage in the southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piet, G. J.; Pfisterer, A. B.; Rijnsdorp, A. D.

1998-09-01

Ten species of flatfish were studied to see to what extent interspecific competition influences their diet or spatial distribution and whether the potential of these flatfish species to avoid interspecific competition through resource partitioning is constrained by specific morphological characteristics. For this, seven morphological characteristics were measured, diet composition was determined from gut content analyses and overlap in distribution was determined from the co-occurrence in trawl hauls. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed the morphological characteristics that were most strongly correlated with the diet composition. Based on these findings the mouth gape was considered to be the most important morphological constraint affecting the choice of food. Two resource dimensions were distinguished along which interspecific competition can act on the flatfish assemblage: the trophic dimension (diet composition) and the spatial dimension (distribution). Resource partitioning was observed along both dimensions separately and, more importantly, the degree of resource partitioning along the two dimensions was negatively correlated. Especially the latter was considered strong circumstantial evidence that interspecific competition is a major factor structuring the flatfish assemblage. Resource partitioning along the two resource dimensions increased with decreasing mouth gape, suggesting that interspecific competition mainly acts on the small-mouthed fish, i.e. juveniles.

Distribution, occupancy, and habitat correlates of American martens (Martes americana) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baldwin, R.A.; Bender, L.C.

2008-01-01

A clear understanding of habitat associations of martens (Martes americana) is necessary to effectively manage and monitor populations. However, this information was lacking for martens in most of their southern range, particularly during the summer season. We studied the distribution and habitat correlates of martens from 2004 to 2006 in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) across 3 spatial scales: site-specific, home-range, and landscape. We used remote-sensored cameras from early August through late October to inventory occurrence of martens and modeled occurrence as a function of habitat and landscape variables using binary response (BR) and binomial count (BC) logistic regression, and occupancy modeling (OM). We also assessed which was the most appropriate modeling technique for martens in RMNP. Of the 3 modeling techniques, OM appeared to be most appropriate given the explanatory power of derived models and its incorporation of detection probabilities, although the results from BR and BC provided corroborating evidence of important habitat correlates. Location of sites in the western portion of the park, riparian mixed-conifer stands, and mixed-conifer with aspen patches were most frequently positively correlated with occurrence of martens, whereas more xeric and open sites were avoided. Additionally, OM yielded unbiased occupancy values ranging from 91% to 100% and 20% to 30% for the western and eastern portions of RMNP, respectively. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

Temporal and Spatial Trends in the Frequency of Occurrence, Length-Frequency Distributions, Length-Weight Relationships, and Relative Abundance of Upper Mississippi River Fish

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

and white crappie [Pomoxis annularis]). d. Analysis of variance suggests that centrarchid species, bowfin ( Amia calva ), emerald shiners (Notropis...10 10 10 W C Family Amiidae-bowfins Bowfin ~( Amia calva ) 10 to 10 10 10 T0 A A Family Hiodontidae-mooneyes (Hiodon alosoides) 5 4 2 ~ 10 9 10A C...Bluntnose minnow Pimephales notatus All lengths BUSKAL . Blue sucker ’C7ycleptus elongatus All lengths BWFNAL Bowfin Amia calva All lengths CARPSS

Ecology and geography of human monkeypox case occurrences across Africa.

PubMed

Ellis, Christine K; Carroll, Darin S; Lash, Ryan R; Peterson, A Townsend; Damon, Inger K; Malekani, Jean; Formenty, Pierre

2012-04-01

As ecologic niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in spatial epidemiology and public health, selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. Here, we build on a previous ENM analysis of the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa by refining georeferencing criteria and using more-diverse environmental data to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox distributional ecology. Significant environmental variables include annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, primary productivity, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and pH. The potential distribution identified with this set of variables was broader than that identified in previous analyses but does not include areas recently found to hold monkeypox in southern Sudan. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets for ENM analyses in pathogen transmission mapping.

Spatial distribution of digestive proteinases in the midgut of the Pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) indicates the existence of endo-ectoperitrophic circulation in Crustacea.

PubMed

Alexandre, Daniel; Ozório, Renata A; Derner, Roberto B; Fracalossi, Débora M; Oliveira, Gabriel B; Samuels, Richard I; Terra, Walter R; Silva, Carlos P

2014-01-01

The effect of dietary protein concentration on the spatial distribution of digestive proteinases in the shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei indicates the existence of endo-ectoperitrophic enzyme circulation in this species. Samples recovered from the midgut gland tissues, stomach contents, three different portions of the midgut and feces were used for quantitative and qualitative analyses of the composition and distribution of the digestive proteinases. Animals were divided into three different groups: (1) animals (controls) fed with a commercial 35% protein diet, (2) animals fed with a commercial diet supplemented with ovalbumin to a final protein concentration of 60%; (3) animals fed with an 80% protein diet. Quantitative determinations using different substrates and zymograms showed that increasing protein concentration in the diet alters the distribution of proteinases along the digestive tract. Composition of proteinases in the midgut gland, stomach contents, midgut sections and feces were similar, but not identical. Chymotrypsin and trypsin paralogues were identified in all enzyme sources in a concentration gradient along the midgut in the control shrimp, the expected distribution supporting the existence of a recycling mechanism. The occurrence of a peritrophic membrane in other Decapoda suggests that endo-ectoperitrophic circulation of digestive enzymes and nutrients may also occur in other crustaceans and also extends beyond the Insecta. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

PubMed Central

Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most likely violated in many forests due to shared or distinct habitat preferences. Furthermore, our results highlight missing knowledge about the relationship between species abundances and their aggregation. PMID:27667967

Stress history controls the spatial pattern of aftershocks: case studies from strike-slip earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkucu, Murat; Durmuş, Hatice; Nalbant, Süleyman

2017-09-01

Earthquake ruptures perturb stress within the surrounding crustal volume and as it is widely accepted now these stress perturbations strongly correlates with the following seismicity. Here we have documented five cases of the mainshock-aftershock sequences generated by the strike-slip faults from different tectonic environments of world in order to demonstrate that the stress changes resulting from large preceding earthquakes decades before effect spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the current mainshocks. The studied mainshock-aftershock sequences are the 15 October 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake ( Mw = 6.4) in southern California, the 27 November 1979 Khuli-Boniabad ( Mw = 7.1), the 10 May 1997 Qa'enat ( Mw = 7.2) and the 31 March 2006 Silakhor ( Mw = 6.1) earthquakes in Iran and the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake ( Mw = 6.7) in Turkey. In the literature, we have been able to find only these mainshocks that are mainly characterized by dense and strong aftershock activities along and beyond the one end of their ruptures while rare aftershock occurrences with relatively lower magnitude reported for the other end of their ruptures. It is shown that the stress changes resulted from earlier mainshock(s) that are close in both time and space might be the reason behind the observed aftershock patterns. The largest aftershocks of the mainshocks studied tend to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that were also stressed by the background earthquakes and not to occur inside the stress-increased lobes that fall into the stress shadow of the background earthquakes. We suggest that the stress shadows of the previous mainshocks may persist in the crust for decades to suppress aftershock distribution of the current mainshocks. Considering active researches about use of the Coulomb stress change maps as a practical tool to forecast spatial distribution of the upcoming aftershocks for earthquake risk mitigation purposes in near-real time, it is further suggested that the background mainshocks along the neighbouring faults should be taken into account in producing the stress change maps for commenting on aftershock occurrences.

Distribution of intermediate host snails of schistosomiasis and fascioliasis in relation to environmental factors during the dry season in the Tchologo region, Côte d'Ivoire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krauth, Stefanie J.; Wandel, Nathalie; Traoré, Seïdinan I.; Vounatsou, Penelope; Hattendorf, Jan; Achi, Louise Y.; McNeill, Kristopher; N'Goran, Eliézer K.; Utzinger, Jürg

2017-10-01

Snail-borne trematodiases, such as fascioliasis and schistosomiasis, belong to the neglected tropical diseases; yet, millions of people and livestock are affected. The spatial and temporal distribution of intermediate host snails plays an important role in the epidemiology and control of trematodiases. Snail distribution is influenced by numerous environmental and anthropomorphic factors. The aim of this study was to assess the distribution and constitution of the snail fauna during the dry season in constructed and natural water bodies in the Tchologo region, northern Côte d'Ivoire, and to relate these findings to environmental factors and human infections. Snails were collected using standard procedures and environmental parameters were assessed from a total of 50 water bodies in and around 30 randomly selected villages. A canonical correspondence analysis was performed to establish the relationship between snail occurrence and environmental factors. Furthermore, a total of 743 people from the same 30 villages and nearby settlements were invited for stool and urine examination for the diagnosis of Fasciola spp., Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni. Snails of medical importance of the genera Biomphalaria, Bulinus, Lymnaea and Physa were found. Differences in snail occurrence from sites sampled in December 2014 and snails sampled in February 2015, as well as between the northern and southern part of the study area, were revealed. Various environmental factors, such as temperature and human activities, were related to the occurrence of intermediate host snail species in the region. Only 2.3% of human participants tested positive for schistosomiasis, while no Fasciola eggs were found in stool samples. We conclude that intermediate host snails of Fasciola and Schistosoma co-occur in water bodies in the Tchologo region and that the distribution of these snails correlates not only with environmental factors, but also with the presence of humans and animals and the environmental contamination of their excreta.

Aftershock patterns and main shock faulting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.H.

1988-01-01

We have compared aftershock patterns following several moderate to large earthquakes with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip obtained from previous analyses of the recorded strong ground motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our results are consistent with a hypothesis of aftershock occurrence that requires a secondary redistribution of stress following primary failure on the earthquake fault. Aftershocks followng earthquakes examined in this study occur mostly outside of or near the edges of the source areas indicated by the patterns of main shock slip. The spatial distribution of aftershocks reflects either a continuation of slip in the outer regions of the areas of maximum coseismic displacement or the activation of subsidiary faults within the volume surrounding the boundaries of main shock rupture. -from Authors

Data-driven mapping of the potential mountain permafrost distribution.

PubMed

Deluigi, Nicola; Lambiel, Christophe; Kanevski, Mikhail

2017-07-15

Existing mountain permafrost distribution models generally offer a good overview of the potential extent of this phenomenon at a regional scale. They are however not always able to reproduce the high spatial discontinuity of permafrost at the micro-scale (scale of a specific landform; ten to several hundreds of meters). To overcome this lack, we tested an alternative modelling approach using three classification algorithms belonging to statistics and machine learning: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines and Random forests. These supervised learning techniques infer a classification function from labelled training data (pixels of permafrost absence and presence) with the aim of predicting the permafrost occurrence where it is unknown. The research was carried out in a 588km 2 area of the Western Swiss Alps. Permafrost evidences were mapped from ortho-image interpretation (rock glacier inventorying) and field data (mainly geoelectrical and thermal data). The relationship between selected permafrost evidences and permafrost controlling factors was computed with the mentioned techniques. Classification performances, assessed with AUROC, range between 0.81 for Logistic regression, 0.85 with Support Vector Machines and 0.88 with Random forests. The adopted machine learning algorithms have demonstrated to be efficient for permafrost distribution modelling thanks to consistent results compared to the field reality. The high resolution of the input dataset (10m) allows elaborating maps at the micro-scale with a modelled permafrost spatial distribution less optimistic than classic spatial models. Moreover, the probability output of adopted algorithms offers a more precise overview of the potential distribution of mountain permafrost than proposing simple indexes of the permafrost favorability. These encouraging results also open the way to new possibilities of permafrost data analysis and mapping. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Distribution of Coffee Wilt Disease Under Roguing and Replanting Conditions: A Case Study from Kaweri Estate in Uganda.

PubMed

Pinard, F; Makune, S E; Campagne, P; Mwangi, J

2016-11-01

Based on time and spatial dynamic considerations, this study evaluates the potential role of short- and long-distance dispersal in the spread of coffee wilt disease (CWD) in a large commercial Robusta coffee estate in Uganda (Kaweri, 1,755 ha) over a 4-year period (2008 to 2012). In monthly surveys, total disease incidence, expansion of infection foci, and the occurrence of isolated infected trees were recorded and submitted to spatial analysis. Incidence was higher and disease progression faster in old coffee plantings compared with young plantings, indicating a lack of efficiency of roguing for reducing disease development in old plantings. At large spatial scale (approximately 1 km), Moran indices (both global and local) revealed the existence of clusters characterized by contrasting disease incidences. This suggested that local environmental conditions were heterogeneous or there were spatial interactions among blocks. At finer spatial scale (approximately 200 m), O-ring statistics revealed positive correlation between distant infection sites across distances as great as 60 m. Although these observations indicate the role of short-distance dispersal in foci expansion, dispersal at greater distances (>20 m) appeared to also contribute to both initiation of new foci and disease progression at coarser spatial scales. Therefore, our results suggested the role of aerial dispersal in CWD progression.

Assessment of the relationship between entomologic indicators of Aedes aegypti and the epidemic occurrence of dengue virus 3 in a susceptible population, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco; Pereira, Mariza; Fávaro, Eliane Aparecida; Dibo, Margareth Regina; Mondini, Adriano; Rodrigues-Junior, Antonio Luiz; Chierotti, Ana Patrícia; Nogueira, Maurício Lacerda

2015-02-01

The aims of this study were to describe the occurrence of dengue in space and time and to assess the relationships between dengue incidence and entomologic indicators. We selected the dengue autochthonous cases that occurred between September 2005 and August 2007 in São José do Rio Preto to calculate incidence rates by month, year and census tracts. The monthly incidence rates of the city were compared to the monthly Breteau indices (BI) of the São José do Rio Region. Between December 2006 and February 2007, an entomological survey was conducted to collect immature forms of Aedes aegypti in Jaguaré, a São José do Rio Preto neighborhood, and to obtain entomological indices. These indices were represented using statistical interpolation. To represent the occurrence of dengue in the Jaguaré neighborhood in 2006 and 2007, we used the Kernel ratio and to evaluate the relationship between dengue and the entomological indices, we used a generalized additive model in a spatial case-control design. Between September 2005 and August 2007, the occurrence of dengue in São José do Rio Preto was almost entirely caused by DENV3, and the monthly incidence rates presented high correlation coefficients with the monthly BI. In Jaguaré neighborhood, the entomological indices calculated by hectare were better predictors of the spatial distribution of dengue than the indices calculated by properties, but the pupae quantification did not show better prediction qualities than the indices based on the container positivity, in relation to the risk of dengue occurrence. The fact that the municipality's population had a high susceptibility to the serotype DENV3 before the development of this research, along with the almost total predominance of the occurrence of this serotype between 2005 and 2007, facilitated the analysis of the epidemiological situation of the disease and allowed us to connect it to the entomological indicators. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manier, Daniel J.; Rover, Jennifer R.

2018-02-15

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Typhoid Fever and Its Association with Environmental Factors in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh: A Spatial and Time-Series Approach

PubMed Central

Dewan, Ashraf M.; Corner, Robert; Hashizume, Masahiro; Ongee, Emmanuel T.

2013-01-01

Typhoid fever is a major cause of death worldwide with a major part of the disease burden in developing regions such as the Indian sub-continent. Bangladesh is part of this highly endemic region, yet little is known about the spatial and temporal distribution of the disease at a regional scale. This research used a Geographic Information System to explore, spatially and temporally, the prevalence of typhoid in Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) of Bangladesh over the period 2005–9. This paper provides the first study of the spatio-temporal epidemiology of typhoid for this region. The aims of the study were: (i) to analyse the epidemiology of cases from 2005 to 2009; (ii) to identify spatial patterns of infection based on two spatial hypotheses; and (iii) to determine the hydro-climatological factors associated with typhoid prevalence. Case occurrences data were collected from 11 major hospitals in DMA, geocoded to census tract level, and used in a spatio-temporal analysis with a range of demographic, environmental and meteorological variables. Analyses revealed distinct seasonality as well as age and gender differences, with males and very young children being disproportionately infected. The male-female ratio of typhoid cases was found to be 1.36, and the median age of the cases was 14 years. Typhoid incidence was higher in male population than female (χ2 = 5.88, p<0.05). The age-specific incidence rate was highest for the 0–4 years age group (277 cases), followed by the 60+ years age group (51 cases), then there were 45 cases for 15–17 years, 37 cases for 18–34 years, 34 cases for 35–39 years and 11 cases for 10–14 years per 100,000 people. Monsoon months had the highest disease occurrences (44.62%) followed by the pre-monsoon (30.54%) and post-monsoon (24.85%) season. The Student's t test revealed that there is no significant difference on the occurrence of typhoid between urban and rural environments (p>0.05). A statistically significant inverse association was found between typhoid incidence and distance to major waterbodies. Spatial pattern analysis showed that there was a significant clustering of typhoid distribution in the study area. Moran's I was highest (0.879; p<0.01) in 2008 and lowest (0.075; p<0.05) in 2009. Incidence rates were found to form three large, multi-centred, spatial clusters with no significant difference between urban and rural rates. Temporally, typhoid incidence was seen to increase with temperature, rainfall and river level at time lags ranging from three to five weeks. For example, for a 0.1 metre rise in river levels, the number of typhoid cases increased by 4.6% (95% CI: 2.4–2.8) above the threshold of 4.0 metres (95% CI: 2.4–4.3). On the other hand, with a 1°C rise in temperature, the number of typhoid cases could increase by 14.2% (95% CI: 4.4–25.0). PMID:23359825

Evaluating influence of active tectonics on spatial distribution pattern of floods along eastern Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvakumar, R.; Ramasamy, SM.

2014-12-01

Flooding is a naturally recurrent phenomenon that causes severe damage to lives and property. Predictions on flood-prone zones are made based on intensity-duration of rainfall, carrying capacity of drainage, and natural or man-made obstructions. Particularly, the lower part of the drainage system and its adjacent geomorphic landforms like floodplains and deltaic plains are considered for analysis, but stagnation in parts of basins that are far away from major riverine systems is less unveiled. Similarly, uncharacteristic flooding in the upper and middle parts of drainage, especially in zones of an anomalous drainage pattern, is also least understood. Even though topographic differences are attributed for such anomalous spatial occurrence of floods, its genetic cause has to be identified for effective management practice. Added to structural and lithological variations, tectonic movements too impart micro-scale terrain undulations. Because active tectonic movements are slow-occurring, long-term geological processes, its resultant topographical variations and drainage anomalies are least correlated with floods. The recent floods of Tamil Nadu also exhibit a unique distribution pattern emphasizing the role of tectonics over it. Hence a detailed geoinformatics-based analysis was carried out to envisage the relationship between spatial distribution of flood and active tectonic elements such as regional arches and deeps, block faults, and graben and drainage anomalies such as deflected drainage, compressed meander, and eyed drainages. The analysis reveals that micro-scale topographic highs and lows imparted by active tectonic movements and its further induced drainage anomalies have substantially controlled the distribution pattern of flood.

Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, D. B.

1997-10-01

The skill in predicting spatially varying weather/climate maps depends on the definition of the measure of similarity between the maps. Under the justifiable approximation that the anomaly maps are distributed multinormally, it is shown analytically that the choice of weighting metric, used in defining the anomaly correlation between spatial maps, can change the resulting probability distribution of the correlation coefficient. The estimate of the numbers of degrees of freedom based on the variance of the correlation distribution can vary from unity up to the number of grid points depending on the choice of weighting metric. The (pseudo-) inverse of the sample covariance matrix acts as a special choice for the metric in that it gives a correlation distribution which has minimal kurtosis and maximum dimension. Minimal kurtosis suggests that the average predictive skill might be improved due to the rarer occurrence of troublesome outlier patterns far from the mean state. Maximum dimension has a disadvantage for analogue prediction schemes in that it gives the minimum number of analogue states. This metric also has an advantage in that it allows one to powerfully test the null hypothesis of multinormality by examining the second and third moments of the correlation coefficient which were introduced by Mardia as invariant measures of multivariate kurtosis and skewness. For these reasons, it is suggested that this metric could be usefully employed in the prediction of weather/climate and in fingerprinting anthropogenic climate change. The ideas are illustrated using the bivariate example of the observed monthly mean sea-level pressures at Darwin and Tahitifrom 1866 1995.

Occurrence and distribution of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in surface water and bottom water of the Shuangtaizi Estuary, China.

PubMed

Shao, Mihua; Ding, Guanghui; Zhang, Jing; Wei, Lie; Xue, Huanhuan; Zhang, Nannan; Li, Yang; Chen, Guanqun; Sun, Yeqing

2016-09-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been recognized as emerging environmental pollutants. However, there is limited information on the contamination level and spatial distribution of PFASs in the Shuangtaizi Estuary, where the Shuangtaizi Hekou Nature Reserve is located. In the present study, the contamination level and spatial distribution of PFASs in surface water (approximately 0.5 m below the surface) and bottom water (about 0.5 m above the bottom) of the Shuangtaizi Estuary were investigated. The data indicated that the Shuangtaizi Estuary was commonly contaminated by PFASs. The total concentration of PFASs in surface and bottom water of the Shuangtaizi Estuary ranged from 66.2 to 185 ng L(-1) and from 44.8 to 209 ng L(-1), respectively. The predominant PFASs were perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), perfluoropentanoic acid, perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluorohexanoic acid and perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). In general, PFAS concentrations in surface water samples were lower than those in bottom water samples. The spatial distribution of PFASs in the Shuangtaizi Estuary was mainly affected by particular landform, tide and residual currents in Liaodong Bay. The total mass flux of 15 PFASs from the Shuangtaizi River to Liaodong Bay was estimated to be 352 kg year(-1), which was lower than the total flux from the Daling River and the Daliao River. As short-chain PFASs, such as PFBS and PFBA, have been the prevalent compounds in some places and are continuously produced and used, long-term monitoring and effective pollution controls are suggested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Bennett, Joseph R; French, Connor M

2017-01-01

SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model's discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have 'universal' analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates-to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

Modeling the influence of a reduced equator-to-pole sea surface temperature gradient on the distribution of water isotopes in the Early/Middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speelman, Eveline N.; Sewall, Jacob O.; Noone, David; Huber, Matthew; von der Heydt, Anna; Damsté, Jaap Sinninghe; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2010-09-01

Proxy-based climate reconstructions suggest the existence of a strongly reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient during the Azolla interval in the Early/Middle Eocene, compared to modern. Changes in the hydrological cycle, as a consequence of a reduced temperature gradient, are expected to be reflected in the isotopic composition of precipitation (δD, δ 18O). The interpretation of water isotopic records to quantitatively reconstruct past precipitation patterns is, however, hampered by a lack of detailed information on changes in their spatial and temporal distribution. Using the isotope-enabled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model v.3 (isoCAM3), relationships between water isotopes and past climates can be simulated. Here we examine the influence of an imposed reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient on the spatial distribution of precipitation and its isotopic composition in an Early/Middle Eocene setting. As a result of the applied forcings, the Eocene simulation predicts the occurrence of less depleted high latitude precipitation, with δD values ranging only between 0 and -140‰ (compared to Present-day 0 to -300‰). Comparison with Early/Middle Eocene-age isotopic proxy data shows that the simulation accurately captures the main features of the spatial distribution of the isotopic composition of Early/Middle Eocene precipitation over land in conjunction with the aspects of the modeled Early/Middle Eocene climate. Hence, the included stable isotope module quantitatively supports the existence of a reduced meridional temperature gradient during this interval.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

PubMed

van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

2017-04-01

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

PubMed

Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

2011-07-01

Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results, therefore, confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).

Mapping Mesophotic Reefs Along the Brazilian Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, A.; Moura, R.; Amado Filho, G.; Ferreira, L.; Boni, G.; Vedoato, F.; D'Agostini, D.; Lavagnino, A. C.; Leite, M. D.; Quaresma, V.

2017-12-01

Submerged or drowned reefs constitute an important geological record of sea level variations, forming the substrate for the colonization of modern benthic mesophotic communities. Although mapping mesophotic reefs has increased in the last years, their spatial distribution is poorly known and the worldwide occurrence of this reef habitat maybe underestimated. The importance in recognizing the distribution of mesophotic reefs is that they can act as a refuge for corals during unsuitable environmental conditions and a repository for shallow water corals. Here we present the result of several acoustic surveys that mapped and discovered new mesophotic reefs along the Eastern and Equatorial Brazilian Continental Margin. Seabed mapping was carried out using multibeam and side scan sonars. Ground truthing was obtained using drop camera or scuba diving. Mesophotic reefs were mapped in water depths varying from 30 to 100m and under distinct oceanographic conditions, especially in terms of river load input and shelf width. Reefs showed distinct morphologies, from low relief banks and paleovalleys to shelf edge ridges. Extensive occurrence of low relief banks were mapped along the most important coralline complex province in the South Atlantic, the Abrolhos Shelf. These 30 to 40m deep banks, have no more than 3 meters in height and may represent fringing reefs formed during sea level stabilization. Paleovalleys mapped along the eastern margin showed the occurrence of coralgal ledges along the channel margins. Paleovalleys are usually deeper than 45m and are associated with outer shelf rhodolith beds. Shelf edge ridges (80 to 120m deep) were mapped along both margins and are related to red algal encrusting irregular surfaces that have more than 3m in height, forming a rigid substrate for coral growth. Along the Equatorial Margin, off the Amazon mouth, shelf edge patch reefs and rhodolith beds forming encrusting surfaces and shelf edge ridges were mapped in water depths greater than 100m. Thus, the occurrence of mesophotic reefs along the Brazilian Margin is influenced by transgressive morphological features, which could be used as a surrogate for mesophotic reef distribution. The extensive occurrence of rhodolith beds on the outer shelf characterizes most of these reefs.

Spatial structure and scaling of macropores in hydrological process at small catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silasari, Rasmiaditya; Broer, Martine; Blöschl, Günter

2013-04-01

During rainfall events, the formation of overland flow can occur under the circumstances of saturation excess and/or infiltration excess. These conditions are affected by the soil moisture state which represents the soil water content in micropores and macropores. Macropores act as pathway for the preferential flows and have been widely studied locally. However, very little is known about their spatial structure and conductivity of macropores and other flow characteristic at the catchment scale. This study will analyze these characteristics to better understand its importance in hydrological processes. The research will be conducted in Petzenkirchen Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a 64 ha catchment located 100 km west of Vienna. The land use is divided between arable land (87%), pasture (5%), forest (6%) and paved surfaces (2%). Video cameras will be installed on an agricultural field to monitor the overland flow pattern during rainfall events. A wireless soil moisture network is also installed within the monitored area. These field data will be combined to analyze the soil moisture state and the responding surface runoff occurrence. The variability of the macropores spatial structure of the observed area (field scale) then will be assessed based on the topography and soil data. Soil characteristics will be supported with laboratory experiments on soil matrix flow to obtain proper definitions of the spatial structure of macropores and its variability. A coupled physically based distributed model of surface and subsurface flow will be used to simulate the variability of macropores spatial structure and its effect on the flow behaviour. This model will be validated by simulating the observed rainfall events. Upscaling from field scale to catchment scale will be done to understand the effect of macropores variability on larger scales by applying spatial stochastic methods. The first phase in this study is the installation and monitoring configuration of video cameras and soil moisture monitoring equipment to obtain the initial data of overland flow occurrence and soil moisture state relationships.

Spatial disaggregation of tick occurrence and ecology at a local scale as a preliminary step for spatial surveillance of tick-borne diseases: general framework and health implications in Belgium.

PubMed

Obsomer, Valerie; Wirtgen, Marc; Linden, Annick; Claerebout, Edwin; Heyman, Paul; Heylen, Dieter; Madder, Maxime; Maris, Jo; Lebrun, Maude; Tack, Wesley; Lempereur, Laetitia; Hance, Thierry; Van Impe, Georges

2013-06-22

The incidence of tick-borne diseases is increasing in Europe. Sub national information on tick distribution, ecology and vector status is often lacking. However, precise location of infection risk can lead to better targeted prevention measures, surveillance and control. In this context, the current paper compiled geolocated tick occurrences in Belgium, a country where tick-borne disease has received little attention, in order to highlight the potential value of spatial approaches and draw some recommendations for future research priorities. Mapping of 89,289 ticks over 654 sites revealed that ticks such as Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes hexagonus are largely present while Dermacentor reticulatus has a patchy distribution. Suspected hot spots of tick diversity might favor pathogen exchanges and suspected hot spots of I. ricinus abundance might increase human-vector contact locally. This underlines the necessity to map pathogens and ticks in detail. While I. ricinus is the main vector, I. hexagonus is a vector and reservoir of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., which is active the whole year and is also found in urban settings. This and other nidiculous species bite humans less frequently, but seem to harbour pathogens. Their role in maintaining a pathogenic cycle within the wildlife merits investigation as they might facilitate transmission to humans if co-occurring with I. ricinus. Many micro-organisms are found abroad in tick species present in Belgium. Most have not been recorded locally but have not been searched for. Some are transmitted directly at the time of the bite, suggesting promotion of tick avoidance additionally to tick removal. This countrywide approach to tick-borne diseases has helped delineate recommendations for future research priorities necessary to design public health policies aimed at spatially integrating the major components of the ecological cycle of tick-borne diseases. A systematic survey of tick species and associated pathogens is called for in Europe, as well as better characterisation of species interaction in the ecology of tick-borne diseases, those being all tick species, pathogens, hosts and other species which might play a role in tick-borne diseases complex ecosystems.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be demonstrated by results obtained while developing the methodology for assessing collective significance of trends in multi-site weather series. The performance of the proposed test statistics is assessed based on large number of realisations of synthetic series produced by WG assuming a given statistical structure and trend of the weather series.

Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

2009-12-01

The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years

PubMed Central

Cheddadi, Rachid; Araújo, Miguel B.; Maiorano, Luigi; Edwards, Mary; Guisan, Antoine; Carré, Matthieu; Chevalier, Manuel; Pearman, Peter B.

2016-01-01

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges. PMID:27826308

Effects of Grazing Management and Cattle on Aquatic Habitat Use by the Anuran Pseudopaludicola mystacalis in Agro-Savannah Landscapes

PubMed Central

Garey, Michel V.; Rossa-Feres, Denise C.

2016-01-01

Because of their strong dependence on the environment, the spatial distribution of pond-breeding amphibians can be greatly influenced by anthropogenic habitat alteration. In some agricultural landscapes in Brazil, the anuran Pseudopaludicola mystacalis appears to be highly influenced by land use. Because adult males and tadpoles of this species are usually found in marshy areas with cattle hoof prints, we hypothesized that P. mystacalis preferentially occupies aquatic habitats with marshy areas that are trampled by cattle. To test our hypothesis, we assessed whether the occurrence of P. mystacalis is associated with the presence of cattle and trampled marshy areas, and which environmental features best explain the spatial distribution and abundance of P. mystacalis. To do so, we sampled 38 aquatic habitats in an area intensely used for livestock in southeastern Brazil. We found that the presence of cattle and trampled marshy areas in aquatic habitats are positively associated to P. mystacalis occurrence. Additionally, the abundance of calling males is better predicted by variables of landscape and local habitat structure. Specifically, the size of trampled marshy areas and the proportion of herbaceous vegetation within the aquatic habitat are positively associated with abundance, while distance to nearest aquatic habitat are negatively associated with abundance of calling males. All three of these variables can be directly or indirectly linked to the presence of cattle or grazing management. Therefore, this work shows evidence that Pseudopaludicola mystacalis is positively influenced by grazing management with cattle, and draws attention to other unknown potential consequences of different land use to fresh water diversity. PMID:27658203

Geologic mapping of the Bauru Group in Sao Paulo state by LANDSAT images. [Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Godoy, A. M.

1983-01-01

The occurrence of the Bauru Group in Sao Paulo State was studied, with emphasis on the western plateau. Regional geological mapping was carried out on a 1:250.000 scale with the help of MSS/LANDSAT images. The visual interpretation of images consisted basically of identifying different spectral characteristics of the geological units using channels 5 and 7. Complementary studies were made for treatment of data with an Interative Image (I-100) analyser in order to facilitate the extraction of information, particularly for areas where visual interpretation proved to be difficult. Regional characteristics provided by MSS/LANDSAT images, coupled with lithostratigraphic studies carried out in the areas of occurrence of Bauru Group sediments, enabled the homogenization of criteria for the subdivision of this group. A spatial distribution of the mapped units was obtained for the entire State of Sao Paulo and results were correlated with proposed stratigraphic divisions.

unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Chandler, Richard B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Multivariate statistical analysis to investigate the subduction zone parameters favoring the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brizzi, S.; Sandri, L.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.; Piromallo, C.; Heuret, A.

2018-03-01

The observed maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes is highly variable worldwide. One key question is which conditions, if any, favor the occurrence of giant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.5). Here we carry out a multivariate statistical study in order to investigate the factors affecting the maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes. We find that the trench-parallel extent of subduction zones and the thickness of trench sediments provide the largest discriminating capability between subduction zones that have experienced giant earthquakes and those having significantly lower maximum magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations show that the observed spatial distribution of giant earthquakes cannot be explained by pure chance to a statistically significant level. We suggest that the combination of a long subduction zone with thick trench sediments likely promotes a great lateral rupture propagation, characteristic of almost all giant earthquakes.

Characterization of Nightside Mid-latitude Irregularities Observed with the Blackstone SuperDARN Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Ribeiro, A. J.; Baker, J. B.; Greenwald, R. A.; Newell, P. T.

2009-12-01

The new mid-latitude SuperDARN radars at Wallops Island and Blackstone observe strong coherent backscattering on an almost nightly basis from latitudes that appear to be subauroral. One study has demonstrated an excellent correlation with the occurrence of density and temperature gradients within the ionospheric projection of the plasmapause (Greenwald et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. [2006]). We have processed all the data collected with the Blackstone radar since its inception in February 2008 for a characterization of the occurrence and properties of ‘plasmapause’ scatter. We have determined the local time and Kp dependencies of the activity and the relation of the spatial distribution of the irregularities to magnetospheric boundaries and ionospheric density gradients. We establish that the irregularities are a feature of the quiet-time subauroral ionosphere and provide a valuable diagnostic of the electric fields in the inner magnetosphere.

Spatial and temporal patterns of cloud cover and fog inundation in coastal California: Ecological implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rastogi, Bharat; Williams, A. Park; Fischer, Douglas T.; Iacobellis, Sam F.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Carvalho, Leila; Jones, Charles Leslie; Baguskas, Sara A.; Still, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

The presence of low-lying stratocumulus clouds and fog has been known to modify biophysical and ecological properties in coastal California where forests are frequently shaded by low-lying clouds or immersed in fog during otherwise warm and dry summer months. Summer fog and stratus can ameliorate summer drought stress and enhance soil water budgets, and often have different spatial and temporal patterns. Here we use remote sensing datasets to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of cloud cover over California’s northern Channel Islands. We found marine stratus to be persistent from May through September across the years 2001-2012. Stratus clouds were both most frequent and had the greatest spatial extent in July. Clouds typically formed in the evening, and dissipated by the following early afternoon. We present a novel method to downscale satellite imagery using atmospheric observations and discriminate patterns of fog from those of stratus and help explain patterns of fog deposition previously studied on the islands. The outcomes of this study contribute significantly to our ability to quantify the occurrence of coastal fog at biologically meaningful spatial and temporal scales that can improve our understanding of cloud-ecosystem interactions, species distributions and coastal ecohydrology.

Random Distribution Pattern and Non-adaptivity of Genome Size in a Highly Variable Population of Festuca pallens

PubMed Central

Šmarda, Petr; Bureš, Petr; Horová, Lucie

2007-01-01

Background and Aims The spatial and statistical distribution of genome sizes and the adaptivity of genome size to some types of habitat, vegetation or microclimatic conditions were investigated in a tetraploid population of Festuca pallens. The population was previously documented to vary highly in genome size and is assumed as a model for the study of the initial stages of genome size differentiation. Methods Using DAPI flow cytometry, samples were measured repeatedly with diploid Festuca pallens as the internal standard. Altogether 172 plants from 57 plots (2·25 m2), distributed in contrasting habitats over the whole locality in South Moravia, Czech Republic, were sampled. The differences in DNA content were confirmed by the double peaks of simultaneously measured samples. Key Results At maximum, a 1·115-fold difference in genome size was observed. The statistical distribution of genome sizes was found to be continuous and best fits the extreme (Gumbel) distribution with rare occurrences of extremely large genomes (positive-skewed), as it is similar for the log-normal distribution of the whole Angiosperms. Even plants from the same plot frequently varied considerably in genome size and the spatial distribution of genome sizes was generally random and unautocorrelated (P > 0·05). The observed spatial pattern and the overall lack of correlations of genome size with recognized vegetation types or microclimatic conditions indicate the absence of ecological adaptivity of genome size in the studied population. Conclusions These experimental data on intraspecific genome size variability in Festuca pallens argue for the absence of natural selection and the selective non-significance of genome size in the initial stages of genome size differentiation, and corroborate the current hypothetical model of genome size evolution in Angiosperms (Bennetzen et al., 2005, Annals of Botany 95: 127–132). PMID:17565968

Spatial distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in South American caecilians.

PubMed

Lambertini, Carolina; Becker, C Guilherme; Bardier, Cecilia; da Silva Leite, Domingos; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-04-20

The amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is linked to population declines in anurans and salamanders globally. To date, however, few studies have attempted to screen Bd in live caecilians; Bd-positive caecilians have only been reported in Africa and French Guiana. Here, we performed a retrospective survey of museum preserved specimens to (1) describe spatial patterns of Bd infection in Gymnophiona across South America and (2) test whether areas of low climatic suitability for Bd in anurans predict Bd spatial epidemiology in caecilians. We used quantitative PCR to detect Bd in preserved caecilians collected over a 109 yr period, and performed autologistic regressions to test the effect of bioclimatic metrics of temperature and precipitation, vegetation density, and elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. We detected an overall Bd prevalence of 12.4%, with positive samples spanning the Uruguayan savanna, Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon basin. Our autologistic models detected a strong effect of macroclimate, a weaker effect of vegetation density, and no effect of elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. Although most of our Bd-positive records overlapped with reported areas of high climatic suitability for the fungus in the Neotropics, many of our new Bd-positive samples extend far into areas of poor suitability for Bd in anurans. Our results highlight an important gap in the study of amphibian chytridiomycosis: the potential negative impact of Bd on Neotropical caecilians and the hypothetical role of caecilians as Bd reservoirs.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

The Composition and Spatial Patterns of Bacterial Virulence Factors and Antibiotic Resistance Genes in 19 Wastewater Treatment Plants

PubMed Central

Zhang, Bing; Xia, Yu; Wen, Xianghua; Wang, Xiaohui; Yang, Yunfeng; Zhou, Jizhong; Zhang, Yu

2016-01-01

Bacterial pathogenicity and antibiotic resistance are of concern for environmental safety and public health. Accumulating evidence suggests that wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are as an important sink and source of pathogens and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Virulence genes (encoding virulence factors) are good indicators for bacterial pathogenic potentials. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of bacterial pathogenic potentials and antibiotic resistance in WWTPs, bacterial virulence genes and ARGs in 19 WWTPs covering a majority of latitudinal zones of China were surveyed by using GeoChip 4.2. A total of 1610 genes covering 13 virulence factors and 1903 genes belonging to 11 ARG families were detected respectively. The bacterial virulence genes exhibited significant spatial distribution patterns of a latitudinal biodiversity gradient and a distance-decay relationship across China. Moreover, virulence genes tended to coexist with ARGs as shown by their strongly positive associations. In addition, key environmental factors shaping the overall virulence gene structure were identified. This study profiles the occurrence, composition and distribution of virulence genes and ARGs in current WWTPs in China, and uncovers spatial patterns and important environmental variables shaping their structure, which may provide the basis for further studies of bacterial virulence factors and antibiotic resistance in WWTPs. PMID:27907117

Comparing two remote video survey methods for spatial predictions of the distribution and environmental niche suitability of demersal fishes.

PubMed

Galaiduk, Ronen; Radford, Ben T; Wilson, Shaun K; Harvey, Euan S

2017-12-15

Information on habitat associations from survey data, combined with spatial modelling, allow the development of more refined species distribution modelling which may identify areas of high conservation/fisheries value and consequentially improve conservation efforts. Generalised additive models were used to model the probability of occurrence of six focal species after surveys that utilised two remote underwater video sampling methods (i.e. baited and towed video). Models developed for the towed video method had consistently better predictive performance for all but one study species although only three models had a good to fair fit, and the rest were poor fits, highlighting the challenges associated with modelling habitat associations of marine species in highly homogenous, low relief environments. Models based on baited video dataset regularly included large-scale measures of structural complexity, suggesting fish attraction to a single focus point by bait. Conversely, models based on the towed video data often incorporated small-scale measures of habitat complexity and were more likely to reflect true species-habitat relationships. The cost associated with use of the towed video systems for surveying low-relief seascapes was also relatively low providing additional support for considering this method for marine spatial ecological modelling.

Non-Local Diffusion of Energetic Electrons during Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, N. H.; Emslie, G.; Kontar, E.

2017-12-01

The transport of the energy contained in suprathermal electrons in solar flares plays a key role in our understanding of many aspects of flare physics, from the spatial distributions of hard X-ray emission and energy deposition in the ambient atmosphere to global energetics. Historically the transport of these particles has been largely treated through a deterministic approach, in which first-order secular energy loss to electrons in the ambient target is treated as the dominant effect, with second-order diffusive terms (in both energy and angle) generally being either treated as a small correction or even neglected. Here, we critically analyze this approach, and we show that spatial diffusion through pitch-angle scattering necessarily plays a very significant role in the transport of electrons. We further show that a satisfactory treatment of the diffusion process requires consideration of non-local effects, so that the electron flux depends not just on the local gradient of the electron distribution function but on the value of this gradient within an extended region encompassing a significant fraction of a mean free path. Our analysis applies generally to pitch-angle scattering by a variety of mechanisms, from Coulomb collisions to turbulent scattering. We further show that the spatial transport of electrons along the magnetic field of a flaring loop can be modeled as a Continuous Time Random Walk with velocity-dependent probability distribution functions of jump sizes and occurrences, both of which can be expressed in terms of the scattering mean free path.

Multicellular automaticity of cardiac cell monolayers: effects of density and spatial distribution of pacemaker cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elber Duverger, James; Boudreau-Béland, Jonathan; Le, Minh Duc; Comtois, Philippe

2014-11-01

Self-organization of pacemaker (PM) activity of interconnected elements is important to the general theory of reaction-diffusion systems as well as for applications such as PM activity in cardiac tissue to initiate beating of the heart. Monolayer cultures of neonatal rat ventricular myocytes (NRVMs) are often used as experimental models in studies on cardiac electrophysiology. These monolayers exhibit automaticity (spontaneous activation) of their electrical activity. At low plated density, cells usually show a heterogeneous population consisting of PM and quiescent excitable cells (QECs). It is therefore highly probable that monolayers of NRVMs consist of a heterogeneous network of the two cell types. However, the effects of density and spatial distribution of the PM cells on spontaneous activity of monolayers remain unknown. Thus, a simple stochastic pattern formation algorithm was implemented to distribute PM and QECs in a binary-like 2D network. A FitzHugh-Nagumo excitable medium was used to simulate electrical spontaneous and propagating activity. Simulations showed a clear nonlinear dependency of spontaneous activity (occurrence and amplitude of spontaneous period) on the spatial patterns of PM cells. In most simulations, the first initiation sites were found to be located near the substrate boundaries. Comparison with experimental data obtained from cardiomyocyte monolayers shows important similarities in the position of initiation site activity. However, limitations in the model that do not reflect the complex beat-to-beat variation found in experiments indicate the need for a more realistic cardiomyocyte representation.

Strong Sporadic E Occurrence Detected by Ground-Based GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenjie; Ning, Baiqi; Yue, Xinan; Li, Guozhu; Hu, Lianhuan; Chang, Shoumin; Lan, Jiaping; Zhu, Zhengping; Zhao, Biqiang; Lin, Jian

2018-04-01

The ionospheric sporadic E (Es) layer has significant impact on radio wave propagation. The traditional techniques employed for Es layer observation, for example, ionosondes, are not dense enough to resolve the morphology and dynamics of Es layer in spatial distribution. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technique is expected to shed light on the understanding of regional strong Es occurrence, owing to the facts that the critical frequency (foEs) of strong Es structure is usually high enough to cause pulse-like disturbances in GNSS total electron content (TEC), and a large number of GNSS receivers have been deployed all over the world. Based on the Chinese ground-based GNSS networks, including the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China and the Beidou Ionospheric Observation Network, a large-scale strong Es event was observed in the middle latitude of China. The strong Es shown as a band-like structure in the southwest-northeast direction extended more than 1,000 km. By making a comparative analysis of Es occurrences identified from the simultaneous observations by ionosondes and GNSS TEC receivers over China middle latitude statistically, we found that GNSS TEC can be well employed to observe strong Es occurrence with a threshold value of foEs, 14 MHz.

Metal-superconductor transition in low-dimensional superconducting clusters embedded in two-dimensional electron systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucheli, D.; Caprara, S.; Castellani, C.; Grilli, M.

2013-02-01

Motivated by recent experimental data on thin film superconductors and oxide interfaces, we propose a random-resistor network apt to describe the occurrence of a metal-superconductor transition in a two-dimensional electron system with disorder on the mesoscopic scale. We consider low-dimensional (e.g. filamentary) structures of a superconducting cluster embedded in the two-dimensional network and we explore the separate effects and the interplay of the superconducting structure and of the statistical distribution of local critical temperatures. The thermal evolution of the resistivity is determined by a numerical calculation of the random-resistor network and, for comparison, a mean-field approach called effective medium theory (EMT). Our calculations reveal the relevance of the distribution of critical temperatures for clusters with low connectivity. In addition, we show that the presence of spatial correlations requires a modification of standard EMT to give qualitative agreement with the numerical results. Applying the present approach to an LaTiO3/SrTiO3 oxide interface, we find that the measured resistivity curves are compatible with a network of spatially dense but loosely connected superconducting islands.

Determination of the Changes of Drought Occurrence in Turkey Using Regional Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibel Saygili, Fatma; Tufan Turp, M.; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

As a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey, being a country in the Mediterranean Basin, is under a serious risk of increased drought conditions. In this study, it is aimed to determine and compare the spatial distributions of climatological drought probabilities for Turkey. For this purpose, by making use of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology are downscaled to 50km for Turkey. To make the future projection over Turkey for the period of 2071-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, the worst case emission pathway RCP8.5 is used. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values are computed and classified in accordance with the seven classifications of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, the spatial distribution maps showing the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey are obtained in order to see the impact of climate change on Turkey's drought patterns.

Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area

PubMed Central

de Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez; de Almeida, Andréa Sobral; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran’s I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran’s I was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. PMID:28513764

Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger-collected data in a Ugandan national park.

PubMed

Critchlow, R; Plumptre, A J; Driciru, M; Rwetsiba, A; Stokes, E J; Tumwesigye, C; Wanyama, F; Beale, C M

2015-10-01

Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zentgraf, Florian; Baum, Elias; Dreizler, Andreas

Planar particle image velocimetry (PIV) and tomographic PIV (TPIV) measurements are utilized to analyze turbulent statistical theory quantities and the instantaneous turbulence within a single-cylinder optical engine. Measurements are performed during the intake and mid-compression stroke at 800 and 1500 RPM. TPIV facilitates the evaluation of spatially resolved Reynolds stress tensor (RST) distributions, anisotropic Reynolds stress invariants, and instantaneous turbulent vortical structures. The RST analysis describes distributions of individual velocity fluctuation components that arise from unsteady turbulent flow behavior as well as cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV). A conditional analysis, for which instantaneous PIV images are sampled by their tumble center location,more » reveals that CCV and turbulence have similar contributions to RST distributions at the mean tumble center, but turbulence is dominant in regions peripheral to the tumble center. Analysis of the anisotropic Reynolds stress invariants reveals the spatial distribution of axisymmetric expansion, axisymmetric contraction, and 3D isotropy within the cylinder. Findings indicate that the mid-compression flow exhibits a higher tendency toward 3D isotropy than the intake flow. A novel post-processing algorithm is utilized to classify the geometry of instantaneous turbulent vortical structures and evaluate their frequency of occurrence within the cylinder. Findings are coupled with statistical theory quantities to provide a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of turbulent velocity components, the distribution of anisotropic states of turbulence, and compare the turbulent vortical flow distribution that is theoretically expected to what is experimentally observed. The analyses reveal requisites of important turbulent flow quantities and discern their sensitivity to the local flow topography and engine operation.« less

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Segregation or aggregation? Sex-specific patterns in the seasonal occurrence of white sharks Carcharodon carcharias at the Neptune Islands, South Australia.

PubMed

Bruce, B; Bradford, R

2015-12-01

The seasonal patterns of occurrence of male and female white sharks Carcharodon carcharias at the Neptune Islands in South Australia were reviewed. Analyses of a 14 year data series indicate that females seasonally aggregate in late autumn and winter coinciding with the maximum in-water availability of lactating female long-nose fur seals and seal pups. During this period, observed male:female sex ratios were similar; whereas during late spring and summer, males continued to visit, but females were rarely recorded. There was no evidence for segregation by sex or size at the Neptunes, but the highly focused seasonal pattern of occurrence of females compared with the year-round records of males suggests that there are likely to be differences between the sexes in overall distribution and movement patterns across southern Australia. It is suggested that foraging strategies and prey selection differ between sexes in C. carcharias across the life-history stages represented and that sex-specific foraging strategies may play an important role in structuring movement patterns and the sex ratios observed at such aggregation sites. Differences between sexes in distribution, movement patterns and foraging strategies are likely to have implications for modelling the consequences of fisheries by-catch between regions or jurisdictions and other spatially or temporally discrete anthropogenic effects on C. carcharias populations. Such differences urge for caution when estimating the size of C. carcharias populations based on observations at pinniped colonies due to the likelihood of sex-specific differences in movements and patterns of residency. These differences also suggest a need to account for sex-specific movement patterns and distribution in population and movement models as well as under conservation actions. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.)

PubMed Central

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E.

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21–18 kyr BP) and LIG (130–116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut. PMID:29023476

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.).

PubMed

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Velasco, Dianne; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21-18 kyr BP) and LIG (130-116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut.

Activity response to climate seasonality in species with fossorial habits: a niche modeling approach using the lowland burrowing treefrog (Smilisca fodiens).

PubMed

Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Sigala-Rodríguez, J Jesús

2013-01-01

The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival.

Occurrence and seasonal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and legacy and current-use pesticides in air from a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Mar Menor, SE Spain).

PubMed

Carratalá, A; Moreno-González, R; León, V M

2017-01-01

The occurrence and seasonal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and legacy and current-use pesticides (CUPs) in air were characterized around the Mar Menor lagoon using both active and passive sampling devices. The seasonal distribution of these pollutants was determined at 6 points using passive samplers. Passive sampler sampling rates were estimated for all detected analytes using an active sampler, considering preferentially winter data, due to probable losses in active sampling during summer (high temperatures and solar irradiation). The presence of 28 compounds (14 CUPs, 11 PAHs and 3 organochlorinated pesticides) were detected in air by polyurethane passive sampling. The most commonly detected contaminants (>95% of samples) in air were chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl and phenanthrene. The maximum concentrations corresponded to phenanthrene (6000 pg m -3 ) and chlorpyrifos (4900 pg m -3 ). The distribution of contaminants was spatially and seasonally heterogeneous. The highest concentrations of PAHs were found close to the airport, while the highest concentrations of pesticides were found in the influence area of agricultural fields (western stations). PAH and herbicide concentrations were higher in winter than in the other seasons, although some insecticides such as chlorpyrifos were more abundant in autumn. The presence of PAHs and legacy and current-use pesticides in air confirmed their transference potential to marine coastal areas such as the Mar Menor lagoon. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Airborne pesticide residues along the Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majewski, M.S.; Foreman, W.T.; Goolsbys, D.A.; Nakagaki, N.

1998-01-01

The occurrence, concentration, and geographical distribution of agricultural pesticides were determined in air over the Mississippi River from New Orleans, LA, to St. Paul, MN, during the first 10 days of June 1994. Air samples were collected from a research vessel by pulling air through polyurethane foam plugs at about 100 L/min for up to 24 h. Each sample was analyzed for 42 pesticides and 3 pesticide transformation products. Twenty- five compounds-15 herbicides, 7 insecticides, and 3 pesticide transformation products-were detected in one or more samples with concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 80 ng/m3. Alachlor, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, fonofos, malathion, methyl parathion, metolachlor, metribuzin, pendimethalin, and trifluralin were detected in 80% or more of the samples. The highest concentrations for chlorpyrifos (1.6 ng/m3), diazinon (0.36 ng/m3), and malathion (4.6 ng/m3) all occurred near major metropolitan areas. These samples represent a 'snapshot in time', a spatial and temporal integration of which pesticides were present in the air during each sampling period. The occurrence and atmospheric concentrations of the observed pesticides were most closely related to their use on cropland within 40 km of the river.The occurrence, concentration, and geographical distribution of agricultural pesticides were determined in air over the Mississippi River from New Orleans, LA, to St. Paul, MN, during the first 10 days of June 1994. Air samples were collected from a research vessel by pulling air through polyurethane foam plugs at about 100 L/min for up to 24 h. Each sample was analyzed for 42 pesticides and 3 pesticide transformation products. Twenty-five compounds-15 herbicides, 7 insecticides, and 3 pesticide transformation products-were detected in one or more samples with concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 80 ng/m3. Alachlor, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, fonofos, malathion, methyl parathion, metolachlor, metribuzin, pendimethalin, and trifluralin were detected in 80% or more of the samples. The highest concentrations for chlorpyrifos (1.6 ng/m3), diazinon (0.36 ng/m3), and malathion (4.6 ng/m3) all occurred near major metropolitan areas. These samples represent a 'snapshot in time', a spatial and temporal integration of which pesticides were present in the air during each sampling period. The occurrence and atmospheric concentrations of the observed pesticides were most closely related to their use on cropland within 40 km of the river.

Mapping the invasive species, Chinese tallow, with EO1 satellite Hyperion hyperspectral image data and relating tallow occurrences to a classified Landsat Thematic Mapper land cover map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, Elijah W.; Rangoonwala, A.; Nelson, G.; Ehrlich, R.

2005-01-01

Our objective was to provide a realistic and accurate representation of the spatial distribution of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) in the Earth Observing 1 (EO1) Hyperion hyperspectral image coverage by using methods designed and tested in previous studies. We transformed, corrected, and normalized Hyperion reflectance image data into composition images with a subpixel extraction model. Composition images were related to green vegetation, senescent foliage and senescing cypress-tupelo forest, senescing Chinese tallow with red leaves ('red tallow'), and a composition image that only corresponded slightly to yellowing vegetation. These statistical and visual comparisons confirmed a successful portrayal of landscape features at the time of the Hyperion image collection. These landscape features were amalgamated in the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) pixel, thereby preventing the detection of Chinese tallow occurrences in the Landsat TM classification. With the occurrence in percentage of red tallow (as a surrogate for Chinese tallow) per pixel mapped, we were able to link dominant land covers generated with Landsat TM image data to Chinese tallow occurrences as a first step toward determining the sensitivity and susceptibility of various land covers to tallow establishment. Results suggested that the highest occurrences and widest distribution of red tallow were (1) apparent in disturbed or more open canopy woody wetland deciduous forests (including cypress-tupelo forests), upland woody land evergreen forests (dominantly pines and seedling plantations), and upland woody land deciduous and mixed forests; (2) scattered throughout the fallow fields or located along fence rows separating active and non-active cultivated and grazing fields, (3) found along levees lining the ubiquitous canals within the marsh and on the cheniers near the coastline; and (4) present within the coastal marsh located on the numerous topographic highs. ?? 2005 US Government.

Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

Occurrence and spatial distribution of pesticide residues in butter and ghee (clarified butter fat) in Punjab (India).

PubMed

Bedi, J S; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Kaur, Prabhjit

2016-02-01

The present study was undertaken to monitor organochlorine, organophosphate, and synthetic pyrethroid pesticide residues in butter (n = 55) and ghee (n = 56) samples collected from three different regions of Punjab. The estimation of pesticide residues was done by multiple residue analytical technique using gas chromatography equipped with GC-ECD and GC-FTD. The confirmation of residues was done on gas chromatography mass spectrometry in both selective ion monitoring (SIM) and scan mode. Results indicated the presence of hexacholorocyclohexane (HCH) and p,p' DDE as predominant contaminant in both butter and ghee. Residues of HCH were detected in 25 and 23% samples of butter and ghee, respectively, while residues of p,p' DDE were recorded in 29 and 25% of butter and ghee samples, respectively. None of the butter and ghee sample violated the MRL values of 200 ng g(-1) for HCH and 1250 ng g(-1) for dichorodiphenyl tricholorethane (DDT). The presence of endosulfan, cypermethrin, fenvalerate, deltamethrin, and chlorpyrifos were observed in a few butter and ghee samples at traces. The spatial variation for comparative occurrence of pesticide residues indicated higher levels in the south-western region of Punjab. Additionally, the temporal variation indicated the significant reduction of HCH and DDT levels in butter and ghee in Punjab.

ULF waves and plasma stability in different regions of the magnetosheath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soucek, Jan; Escoubet, C. Philippe; Grison, Benjamin

2016-04-01

We present a statistical study of the occurrence and properties of ultra low frequency waves in the magnetosheath and interpret the results in terms of the competition of mirror and Alfvén-ion-cyclotron (AIC) instabilities. Both mirror and AIC waves are generated in high beta plasma of the magnetosheath when ion temperature anisotropy exceeds the threshold of the respective instabilities. These waves are frequently observed in the terrestrial and planetary magnetosheaths, but their distribution within the magnetosheath is inhomogeneous and their character varies as a function of location, local and upstream plasma parameters. We studied the spatial distribution of the two wave modes in the magnetosheath together with the local plasma parameters important for the stability of ULF waves. This analysis was performed on a dataset of all magnetosheath crossings observed by Cluster spacecraft over two years. For each observation we used bow shock, magnetopause and magnetosheath flow models to identify the relative position of the spacecraft with respect to magnetosheath boundaries and local properties of the upstream shock crossing. A strong dependence of parameters characterizing plasma stability and mirror/AIC wave occurrence on upstream ΘBn and MA is identified. The occurrence of mirror and AIC modes was compared against the respective instability thresholds and it was observed that AIC waves occurred nearly exclusively under mirror stable conditions. This is interpreted in terms of the different character of non-linear saturation of the two modes.

Analysis of ecological context for identifying vegetation and animal conservation planning foci: An example from the arid South-western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamazaki, T.; Thompson, B.C.; Locke, B.A.; Boykin, K.G.

2003-01-01

In developing conservation strategies, it is important to maximize effects of conservation within a specified land tract and to maximize conservation effects on surrounding area (ecological context). The authors proposed two criteria to select biotic entities for conservation foci: (1) the relative occurrence of fauna or flora in a tract is greater than that of an ecological context region; and (2) occurrence of the fauna or flora is relatively limited in the ecological context region. Using extensive spatial data on vegetation and wildlife habitat distribution, the authors identified strategic vegetation and fauna conservation foci for the 400 000 ha Fort Bliss military reservation in New Mexico and Texas relative to a 164 km radius ecological context region intersecting seven ecological zones and the predicted habitat distribution of 616 animal species. The authors set two specific criteria: (1) predicted area of a species' occurrence is 5% (Fort Bliss is 4.2% of the region). These criteria selected one vegetation class and 40 animal species. Further, these vegetation and animal foci were primarily located in two areas of Fort Bliss. Sensitivity analyses with other analytical radii corroborated the context radius used. Conservation of the two areas and associated taxa will maximize the contribution of Fort Bliss's conservation efforts in its ecological proximity. This relatively simple but information-rich process represents economical and defensible preliminary contextual analysis for detailed conservation planning.

Interannual Variability in Global Dust Storm Initiation on Mars from a GCM with Orbit-Spin Coupling and Active Dust Lifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M.; Shirley, J. H.; Newman, C. E.

2016-12-01

To first order, the occurrence and interannual variability of global dust storms (GDS) on Mars is attributable to two factors: the annual cycle of solar insolation (which delineates a specific `dust storm season'), and the changing spatial distribution and availability of dust at the surface. Recent work has now found a remarkable correspondence between the occurrence of GDS on Mars and years in which the orbital angular momentum of Mars is increasing during the dust storm season. A previously undefined acceleration term `couples' this orbital motion to the rotational motion of the planet and atmosphere, and small but persistent atmospheric accelerations (so-called `coupling term accelerations,' or CTA) change the atmospheric circulation in such a way as to seemingly be favorable to storm development. This becomes a third factor, then, that may regulate the occurrence and variability of GDS. Our prior work with the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) was performed either with no atmospheric dust, or with simplified, prescribed dust distributions, and illustrated the dual roles of both insolation and CTA on GDS variability. Recent advances in the MarsWRF GCM dust prescription can now tackle the remaining unaddressed factor: the role of dust availability in controlling the initiation of GDS. Simulations with both infinite and finite global sources of dust have been performed. For a prescribed dust lifting threshold, surface dust is removed from the surface, preferentially from locations with larger surface stress values, transported in the atmosphere and deposited at a later time. Compared to simulations without CTA, those with CTA show more realism in the variability of timing and magnitude of atmospheric dustiness during the dust storm season. For infinite surface dust, the primary dust lifting (peak wind stress) regions are spatially restricted, and year-to-year changes are largely due to variations in the CTA at these few locations. By contrast, in simulations with finite surface dust, the peak stress regions are rapidly exhausted, leading to a far greater distribution of primary dust lifting regions; hence, variations in the CTA over a wider area contribute to the interannual variability of GDS. Results from our suite of simulations will be shown, vis-à-vis the historical record of GDS on Mars.

Habitat selection by owls in a seasonal semi-deciduous forest in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Menq, W; Anjos, L

2015-11-01

This paper tested the hypothesis that the structural components of vegetation have impact over the distribution of owl species in a fragment of a semi-deciduous seasonal forest. This paper also determined which vegetation variables contributed to the spatial distribution of owl species. It was developed in the Perobas Biological Reserve (PBR) between September and December 2011. To conduct the owl census, a playback technique was applied at hearing points distributed to cover different vegetation types in the study area. A total of 56 individual owls of six species were recorded: Tropical Screech-Owl (Megascops choliba), Black-capped Screech-Owl (Megascops atricapilla), Tawny-browed Owl (Pulsatrix koeniswaldiana), Ferruginous Pygmy-Owl (Glaucidium brasilianum), Mottled Owl (Strix virgata) and Stygian Owl (Asio stygius). The results suggest that the variables of vegetation structure have impact on the occurrence of owls. The canopy height, the presence of hollow trees, fallen trees and glades are the most important structural components influencing owl distribution in the sampled area.

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

PubMed

Khalil, Hussein; Olsson, Gert; Magnusson, Magnus; Evander, Magnus; Hörnfeldt, Birger; Ecke, Frauke

2017-07-26

To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3-4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly. We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 - year time-series (fall 2003-2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007-2010 and 2015). The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful. Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used.

EXIMS: an improved data analysis pipeline based on a new peak picking method for EXploring Imaging Mass Spectrometry data.

PubMed

Wijetunge, Chalini D; Saeed, Isaam; Boughton, Berin A; Spraggins, Jeffrey M; Caprioli, Richard M; Bacic, Antony; Roessner, Ute; Halgamuge, Saman K

2015-10-01

Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Imaging Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-IMS) in 'omics' data acquisition generates detailed information about the spatial distribution of molecules in a given biological sample. Various data processing methods have been developed for exploring the resultant high volume data. However, most of these methods process data in the spectral domain and do not make the most of the important spatial information available through this technology. Therefore, we propose a novel streamlined data analysis pipeline specifically developed for MALDI-IMS data utilizing significant spatial information for identifying hidden significant molecular distribution patterns in these complex datasets. The proposed unsupervised algorithm uses Sliding Window Normalization (SWN) and a new spatial distribution based peak picking method developed based on Gray level Co-Occurrence (GCO) matrices followed by clustering of biomolecules. We also use gist descriptors and an improved version of GCO matrices to extract features from molecular images and minimum medoid distance to automatically estimate the number of possible groups. We evaluated our algorithm using a new MALDI-IMS metabolomics dataset of a plant (Eucalypt) leaf. The algorithm revealed hidden significant molecular distribution patterns in the dataset, which the current Component Analysis and Segmentation Map based approaches failed to extract. We further demonstrate the performance of our peak picking method over other traditional approaches by using a publicly available MALDI-IMS proteomics dataset of a rat brain. Although SWN did not show any significant improvement as compared with using no normalization, the visual assessment showed an improvement as compared to using the median normalization. The source code and sample data are freely available at http://exims.sourceforge.net/. awgcdw@student.unimelb.edu.au or chalini_w@live.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Shallow landsliding, root reinforcement, and the spatial distribution of trees in the Oregon Coast Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roering, J.J.; Schmidt, K.M.; Stock, J.D.; Dietrich, W.E.; Montgomery, D.R.

2003-01-01

The influence of root reinforcement on shallow landsliding has been well established through mechanistic and empirical studies, yet few studies have examined how local vegetative patterns influence slope stability. Because root networks spread outward from trees, the species, size, and spacing of trees should influence the spatial distribution of root strength. We documented the distribution and characteristics of trees adjacent to 32 shallow landslides that occurred during 1996 in the Oregon Coast Range. Although broadly classified as a conifer-dominated forest, we observed sparse coniferous and abundant hardwood trees near landslide scars in an industrial forest (Mapleton) that experienced widespread burning in the 19th century. In industrial forests that were burned, selectively harvested, and not replanted (Elliott State Forest), swordfern was ubiquitous near landslides, and we observed similar numbers of live conifer and hardwood trees proximal to landslide scarps. We demonstrate that root strength quantified in landslide scarps and soil pits correlates with a geometry-based index of root network contribution derived from mapping the size, species, condition, and spacing of local trees, indicating that root strength can be predicted by mapping the distribution and characteristics of trees on potentially unstable slopes. In our study sites, landslides tend to occur in areas of reduced root strength, suggesting that to make site-specific predictions of landslide occurrence slope stability analyses must account for the diversity and distribution of vegetation in potentially unstable terrain.

Computed reconstruction of spatial ammonoid-shell orientation captured from digitized grinding and landmark data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukeneder, Susanne; Lukeneder, Alexander; Weber, Gerhard W.

2014-03-01

The internal orientation of fossil mass occurrences can be exploited as useful source of information about their primary depositional conditions. A series of studies, using different kinds of fossils, especially those with elongated shape (e.g., elongated gastropods), deal with their orientation and the subsequent reconstruction of the depositional conditions (e.g., paleocurrents and transport mechanisms). However, disk-shaped fossils like planispiral cephalopods or gastropods were used, up to now, with caution for interpreting paleocurrents. Moreover, most studies just deal with the topmost surface of such mass occurrences, due to the easier accessibility. Within this study, a new method for three-dimensional reconstruction of the internal structure of a fossil mass occurrence and the subsequent calculation of its spatial shell orientation is established. A 234 million-years-old (Carnian, Triassic) monospecific mass occurrence of the ammonoid Kasimlarceltites krystyni from the Taurus Mountains in Turkey, embedded in limestone, is used for this pilot study. Therefore, a 150×45×140 mm3 block of the ammonoid bearing limestone bed has been grinded to 70 slices, with a distance of 2 mm between each slice. By using a semi-automatic region growing algorithm of the 3D-visualization software Amira, ammonoids of a part of this mass occurrence were segmented and a 3D-model reconstructed. Landmarks, trigonometric and vector-based calculations were used to compute the diameters and the spatial orientation of each ammonoid. The spatial shell orientation was characterized by dip and dip-direction and aperture direction of the longitudinal axis, as well as by dip and azimuth of an imaginary sagittal-plane through each ammonoid. The exact spatial shell orientation was determined for a sample of 675 ammonoids, and their statistical orientation analyzed (i.e., NW/SE). The study combines classical orientation analysis with modern 3D-visualization techniques, and establishes a novel spatial orientation analyzing method, which can be adapted to any kind of abundant solid matter.

Topographic controls on overland flow generation in a forest - An ensemble tree approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loos, Martin; Elsenbeer, Helmut

2011-10-01

SummaryOverland flow is an important hydrological pathway in many forests of the humid tropics. Its generation is subject to topographic controls at differing spatial scales. Our objective was to identify such controls on the occurrence of overland flow in a lowland tropical rainforest. To this end, we installed 95 overland flow detectors (OFDs) in four nested subcatchments of the Lutzito catchment on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and monitored the frequency of overland flow occurrence during 18 rainfall events at each OFD location temporal frequency. For each such location, we derived three non-digital terrain attributes and 17 digital ones, of which 15 were based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of three different resolutions. These attributes then served as input into a Random Forest ensemble tree model to elucidate the importance and partial and joint dependencies of topographic controls for overland flow occurrence. Lutzito features a high median temporal frequency in overland flow occurrence of 0.421 among OFD locations. However, spatial temporal frequencies of overland flow occurrence vary strongly among these locations and the subcatchments of Lutzito catchment. This variability is best explained by (1) microtopography, (2) coarse terrain sloping and (3) various measures of distance-to-channel, with the contribution of all other terrain attributes being small. Microtopographic features such as concentrated flowlines and wash areas produce highest temporal frequencies, whereas the occurrence of overland flow drops sharply for flow distances and terrain sloping beyond certain threshold values. Our study contributes to understanding both the spatial controls on overland flow generation and the limitations of terrain attributes for the spatially explicit prediction of overland flow frequencies.

Altering spatial priority maps via statistical learning of target selection and distractor filtering.

PubMed

Ferrante, Oscar; Patacca, Alessia; Di Caro, Valeria; Della Libera, Chiara; Santandrea, Elisa; Chelazzi, Leonardo

2018-05-01

The cognitive system has the capacity to learn and make use of environmental regularities - known as statistical learning (SL), including for the implicit guidance of attention. For instance, it is known that attentional selection is biased according to the spatial probability of targets; similarly, changes in distractor filtering can be triggered by the unequal spatial distribution of distractors. Open questions remain regarding the cognitive/neuronal mechanisms underlying SL of target selection and distractor filtering. Crucially, it is unclear whether the two processes rely on shared neuronal machinery, with unavoidable cross-talk, or they are fully independent, an issue that we directly addressed here. In a series of visual search experiments, participants had to discriminate a target stimulus, while ignoring a task-irrelevant salient distractor (when present). We systematically manipulated spatial probabilities of either one or the other stimulus, or both. We then measured performance to evaluate the direct effects of the applied contingent probability distribution (e.g., effects on target selection of the spatial imbalance in target occurrence across locations) as well as its indirect or "transfer" effects (e.g., effects of the same spatial imbalance on distractor filtering across locations). By this approach, we confirmed that SL of both target and distractor location implicitly bias attention. Most importantly, we described substantial indirect effects, with the unequal spatial probability of the target affecting filtering efficiency and, vice versa, the unequal spatial probability of the distractor affecting target selection efficiency across locations. The observed cross-talk demonstrates that SL of target selection and distractor filtering are instantiated via (at least partly) shared neuronal machinery, as further corroborated by strong correlations between direct and indirect effects at the level of individual participants. Our findings are compatible with the notion that both kinds of SL adjust the priority of specific locations within attentional priority maps of space. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013–2014

PubMed Central

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

2015-01-01

This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

Moving Uphill: Microbial Facilitation at the Leading Edge of Plant Species Distributional Shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suding, K.; Farrer, E.; Spasojevic, M.; Porazinska, D.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Schmidt, S. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to influence species distributions and reshuffle patterns of biodiversity. A key challenge to our understanding of these effects is that biotic interactions - new species to compete with, new stressors that increase dependence on facilitation, new prey or predators - will likely affect the ability of species to track climate at the leading edges of their distributional range. While it is well established that soil biota strongly influence plant abundance and diversity, it has been difficult to quantify the key belowground dynamics. This presentation will investigate the influence of one key biotic interaction, between plants and soil microbiota, on the ability of plant species to track climate change and expand their range uphill in a high montane system in the Front Range of Colorado. High-resolution photography from 1972 and 2008 indicate colonization of tundra vegetation in formerly unvegetated areas. Observational work on the distributions patterns of both plants and soil microbiota (bacteria, fungi and nematodes) in a spatially-explicit grid at the upper edge of plant distributions indicate strong, mostly positive, associations between plant species and soil taxa. Abiotic factors, while important, consistently underpredicted the occurrence of plant species and, in nine of the 12 most common tundra plants, co-occurring microbial taxa were important predictors of plant occurrence. Comparison of plant and microbial distributional patterns in 2007 and 2015 indicate the influence of microbial community composition on assembly and beta-diversity of the plant community over time. Plant colonization patterns in this region previously devoid of vegetation will likely influence carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics, with downstream consequences on nutrient limitation and phytoplankton composition in alpine lakes.

Occurrence, distribution and prey items of juvenile marbled sole Pseudopleuronectes yokohamae around a submarine groundwater seepage on a tidal flat in southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hata, Masaki; Sugimoto, Ryo; Hori, Masakazu; Tomiyama, Takeshi; Shoji, Jun

2016-05-01

Occurrence, distribution and prey items of juvenile marbled sole Pseudopleuronectes yokohamae were investigated around a submarine groundwater seepage on a tidal flat in southwestern Japan. Spatial distribution of radon-222 (222Rn) concentration in water showed more submarine groundwater seepage in the offshore area. The lower salinities at offshore sampling stations corresponded with the highest 222Rn concentrations. Juvenile marbled sole were collected from March through June with seasonal peak in April in 2013 and 2014. Mean abundance of juvenile marbled sole was highest at the second most offshore station where high submarine groundwater seepage was indicated. Major prey items in the stomachs of the marbled sole at the post-settlement stage (10-40 mm) were small crustaceans such as cumaceans and gammarids, which were partially replaced with polychaetes in larger juveniles (40-50 mm). Abundance of these major prey items was also higher at offshore stations. A negative correlation between gammarid abundance and salinity indicated a higher concentration of gammarids around the area of high submarine groundwater seepage, a pattern not observed for the other major prey organisms. Stable isotope analysis showed greater dependence of post-settlement stage marbled sole on the small crustaceans with low δ13C indicating that nutrients of terrestrial origin contribute to production of the juvenile marbled sole on the tidal flat.

Spatial Patterns and Impacts of Environmental and Climatic Factors on Canine Sinonasal Aspergillosis in Northern California

PubMed Central

Magro, Monise; Sykes, Jane; Vishkautsan, Polina; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-01-01

Sinonasal aspergillosis (SNA) causes chronic nasal discharge in dogs and has a worldwide distribution, although most reports of SNA in North America originate from the western USA. SNA is mainly caused by Aspergillus fumigatus, a ubiquitous saprophytic filamentous fungus. Infection is thought to follow inhalation of spores. SNA is a disease of the nasal cavity and/or sinuses with variable degrees of local invasion and destruction. While some host factors appear to predispose to SNA (such as belonging to a dolichocephalic breed), environmental risk factors have been scarcely studied. Because A. fumigatus is also the main cause of invasive aspergillosis in humans, unraveling the distribution and the environmental and climatic risk factors for this agent in dogs would be of great benefit for public health studies, advancing understanding of both distribution and risk factors in humans. In this study, we reviewed electronic medical records of 250 dogs diagnosed with SNA between 1990 and 2014 at the University of California Davis Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital (VMTH). A 145-mile radius catchment area around the VMTH was selected. Data were aggregated by zip code and incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. The logistic regression model was compared to an autologistic regression model to evaluate the effect of spatial autocorrelation. Traffic density, active composting sites, and environmental and climatic factors related with wind and temperature were significantly associated with increase in disease occurrence in dogs. Results provide valuable information about the risk factors and spatial distribution of SNA in dogs in Northern California. Our ultimate goal is to utilize the results to investigate risk-based interventions, promote awareness, and serve as a model for further studies of aspergillosis in humans. PMID:28717638

Spatial Patterns and Impacts of Environmental and Climatic Factors on Canine Sinonasal Aspergillosis in Northern California.

PubMed

Magro, Monise; Sykes, Jane; Vishkautsan, Polina; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-01-01

Sinonasal aspergillosis (SNA) causes chronic nasal discharge in dogs and has a worldwide distribution, although most reports of SNA in North America originate from the western USA. SNA is mainly caused by Aspergillus fumigatus , a ubiquitous saprophytic filamentous fungus. Infection is thought to follow inhalation of spores. SNA is a disease of the nasal cavity and/or sinuses with variable degrees of local invasion and destruction. While some host factors appear to predispose to SNA (such as belonging to a dolichocephalic breed), environmental risk factors have been scarcely studied. Because A. fumigatus is also the main cause of invasive aspergillosis in humans, unraveling the distribution and the environmental and climatic risk factors for this agent in dogs would be of great benefit for public health studies, advancing understanding of both distribution and risk factors in humans. In this study, we reviewed electronic medical records of 250 dogs diagnosed with SNA between 1990 and 2014 at the University of California Davis Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital (VMTH). A 145-mile radius catchment area around the VMTH was selected. Data were aggregated by zip code and incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. The logistic regression model was compared to an autologistic regression model to evaluate the effect of spatial autocorrelation. Traffic density, active composting sites, and environmental and climatic factors related with wind and temperature were significantly associated with increase in disease occurrence in dogs. Results provide valuable information about the risk factors and spatial distribution of SNA in dogs in Northern California. Our ultimate goal is to utilize the results to investigate risk-based interventions, promote awareness, and serve as a model for further studies of aspergillosis in humans.

SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses

PubMed Central

Bennett, Joseph R.; French, Connor M.

2017-01-01

SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model’s discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have ‘universal’ analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates—to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user. PMID:29230356

Automated detection of Martian water ice clouds: the Valles Marineris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogohara, Kazunori; Munetomo, Takafumi; Hatanaka, Yuji; Okumura, Susumu

2016-10-01

We need to extract water ice clouds from the large number of Mars images in order to reveal spatial and temporal variations of water ice cloud occurrence and to meteorologically understand climatology of water ice clouds. However, visible images observed by Mars orbiters for several years are too many to visually inspect each of them even though the inspection was limited to one region. Therefore, an automated detection algorithm of Martian water ice clouds is necessary for collecting ice cloud images efficiently. In addition, it may visualize new aspects of spatial and temporal variations of water ice clouds that we have never been aware. We present a method for automatically evaluating the presence of Martian water ice clouds using difference images and cross-correlation distributions calculated from blue band images of the Valles Marineris obtained by the Mars Orbiter Camera onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS/MOC). We derived one subtracted image and one cross-correlation distribution from two reflectance images. The difference between the maximum and the average, variance, kurtosis, and skewness of the subtracted image were calculated. Those of the cross-correlation distribution were also calculated. These eight statistics were used as feature vectors for training Support Vector Machine, and its generalization ability was tested using 10-fold cross-validation. F-measure and accuracy tended to be approximately 0.8 if the maximum in the normalized reflectance and the difference of the maximum and the average in the cross-correlation were chosen as features. In the process of the development of the detection algorithm, we found many cases where the Valles Marineris became clearly brighter than adjacent areas in the blue band. It is at present unclear whether the bright Valles Marineris means the occurrence of water ice clouds inside the Valles Marineris or not. Therefore, subtracted images showing the bright Valles Marineris were excluded from the detection of water ice clouds

Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the effect of sample prevalence on model estimation. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Spatial distribution of temporal dynamics in anthropogenic fires in miombo savanna woodlands of Tanzania.

PubMed

Tarimo, Beatrice; Dick, Øystein B; Gobakken, Terje; Totland, Ørjan

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic uses of fire play a key role in regulating fire regimes in African savannas. These fires contribute the highest proportion of the globally burned area, substantial biomass burning emissions and threaten maintenance and enhancement of carbon stocks. An understanding of fire regimes at local scales is required for the estimation and prediction of the contribution of these fires to the global carbon cycle and for fire management. We assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of fires in miombo woodlands of Tanzania, utilizing the MODIS active fire product and Landsat satellite images for the past ~40 years. Our results show that up to 50.6% of the woodland area is affected by fire each year. An early and a late dry season peak in wetter and drier miombo, respectively, characterize the annual fire season. Wetter miombo areas have higher fire activity within a shorter annual fire season and have shorter return intervals. The fire regime is characterized by small-sized fires, with a higher ratio of small than large burned areas in the frequency-size distribution (β = 2.16 ± 0.04). Large-sized fires are rare, and occur more frequently in drier than in wetter miombo. Both fire prevalence and burned extents have decreased in the past decade. At a large scale, more than half of the woodland area has less than 2 years of fire return intervals, which prevent the occurrence of large intense fires. The sizes of fires, season of burning and spatial extent of occurrence are generally consistent across time, at the scale of the current analysis. Where traditional use of fire is restricted, a reassessment of fire management strategies may be required, if sustainability of tree cover is a priority. In such cases, there is a need to combine traditional and contemporary fire management practices.

Marine Stratocumulus Cloud Fields off the Coast of Southern California Observed Using LANDSAT Imagery. Part II: Textural Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welch, R. M.; Sengupta, S. K.; Kuo, K. S.

1988-04-01

Statistical measures of the spatial distributions of gray levels (cloud reflectivities) are determined for LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner digital data. Textural properties for twelve stratocumulus cloud fields, seven cumulus fields, and two cirrus fields are examined using the Spatial Gray Level Co-Occurrence Matrix method. The co-occurrence statistics are computed for pixel separations ranging from 57 m to 29 km and at angles of 0°, 45°, 90° and 135°. Nine different textual measures are used to define the cloud field spatial relationships. However, the measures of contrast and correlation appear to be most useful in distinguishing cloud structure.Cloud field macrotexture describes general cloud field characteristics at distances greater than the size of typical cloud elements. It is determined from the spatial asymptotic values of the texture measures. The slope of the texture curves at small distances provides a measure of the microtexture of individual cloud cells. Cloud fields composed primarily of small cells have very steep slopes and reach their asymptotic values at short distances from the origin. As the cells composing the cloud field grow larger, the slope becomes more gradual and the asymptotic distance increases accordingly. Low asymptotic values of correlation show that stratocumulus cloud fields have no large scale organized structure.Besides the ability to distinguish cloud field structure, texture appears to be a potentially valuable tool in cloud classification. Stratocumulus clouds are characterized by low values of angular second moment and large values of entropy. Cirrus clouds appear to have extremely low values of contrast, low values of entropy, and very large values of correlation.Finally, we propose that sampled high spatial resolution satellite data be used in conjunction with coarser resolution operational satellite data to detect and identify cloud field structure and directionality and to locate regions of subresolution scale cloud contamination.

Coastal fog and low cloud spatial patterns: do they indicate potential biodiversity refugia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.

2016-12-01

Marine fog and low clouds transfer water and nutrients to coastal ecosystems through advection from the ocean and reduce heat effects by reflecting incoming shortwave radiation. These effects are known to benefit many species, vegetation communities, and habitats such as coastal redwood trees and their understory, maritime chaparral, and coastal streams harboring endangered salmon species. The California floristic region is the highest ranked hotspot in the U.S. and ranked 7th of 35 biodiversity hotspots worldwide in terms of the percent of its plant species that are found nowhere else (endemic). Many environmental drivers have been identified as contributing to California's remarkably high endemism and biodiversity, however, coastal low clouds have not typically been included. This could be due to the lack of data such as high resolution maps of coastal low cloud occurrence or the lack of long term records. Using a recent analysis of hourly National Weather Service satellite data, a stability index (SI) for coastal fog and low cloud cover was derived using two measures of variation and average summertime cloud cover to quantify long term spatial stability trends. Several discrete spatial clumps were identified that had both high temporal stability and high coastal low cloud cover. These areas show a strong correlation with a specific topographic landscape configuration with respect to wind direction. Point occurrence distribution maps of endemic coastal species were overlain with the SI to explore spatial correlation. The federally endangered species that showed very high spatial correlation included Yadon's Rein-orchid (Piperia yadonii), Monterey Spineflower (Chorizanthe pungens var. pungens), and Seaside Bird's-beak (Cordylanthus rigidus ssp. littoralis). Current estimated range maps are not consistent with the SI results suggesting a need to update estimated ranges. Biodiversity measures are being investigated in these areas to explore the hypothesis that they can be considered paleorefugia for species that have persisted over millennia in spite of a general increase in the aridity and temperature of the California climate.

Landscape-level movement patterns by lions in western Serengeti: comparing the influence of inter-specific competitors, habitat attributes and prey availability.

PubMed

Kittle, Andrew M; Bukombe, John K; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Mduma, Simon A R; Fryxell, John M

2016-01-01

Where apex predators move on the landscape influences ecosystem structure and function and is therefore key to effective landscape-level management and species-specific conservation. However the factors underlying predator distribution patterns within functional ecosystems are poorly understood. Predator movement should be sensitive to the spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors, spatial variation in prey density, and landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability. We investigated the relative role of these fundamental factors on seasonal resource utilization by a globally endangered apex carnivore, the African lion (Panthera leo) in Tanzania's Serengeti National Park. Lion space use was represented by novel landscape-level, modified utilization distributions (termed "localized density distributions") created from telemetry relocations of individual lions from multiple neighbouring prides. Spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors were similarly determined from telemetry re-locations of spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), this system's primary competitor for lions; prey distribution was derived from 18 months of detailed census data; and remote sensing data was used to represent relevant habitat attributes. Lion space use was consistently influenced by landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability to predation. Wet season activity, when available prey were scarce, was concentrated near embankments, which provide ambush opportunities, and dry season activity, when available prey were abundant, near remaining water sources where prey occurrence is predictable. Lion space use patterns were positively associated with areas of high prey biomass, but only in the prey abundant dry season. Finally, at the broad scale of this analysis, lion and hyena space use was positively correlated in the comparatively prey-rich dry season and unrelated in the wet season, suggesting lion movement was unconstrained by the spatial patterns of their main inter-specific competitors. The availability of potential prey and vulnerability of that prey to predation both motivate lion movement decisions, with their relative importance apparently mediated by overall prey abundance. With practical and theoretical implications, these results suggest that while top carnivores are consistently cognizant of how landscape features influence individual prey vulnerability, they also adopt a flexible approach to range use by adjusting spatial behaviour according to fluctuations in local prey abundance.

Spatial phylogenetics of the native California flora.

PubMed

Thornhill, Andrew H; Baldwin, Bruce G; Freyman, William A; Nosratinia, Sonia; Kling, Matthew M; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Madsen, Thomas P; Ackerly, David D; Mishler, Brent D

2017-10-26

California is a world floristic biodiversity hotspot where the terms neo- and paleo-endemism were first applied. Using spatial phylogenetics, it is now possible to evaluate biodiversity from an evolutionary standpoint, including discovering significant areas of neo- and paleo-endemism, by combining spatial information from museum collections and DNA-based phylogenies. Here we used a distributional dataset of 1.39 million herbarium specimens, a phylogeny of 1083 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 9 genes, and a spatial randomization test to identify regions of significant phylogenetic diversity, relative phylogenetic diversity, and phylogenetic endemism (PE), as well as to conduct a categorical analysis of neo- and paleo-endemism (CANAPE). We found (1) extensive phylogenetic clustering in the South Coast Ranges, southern Great Valley, and deserts of California; (2) significant concentrations of short branches in the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts and the South Coast Ranges and long branches in the northern Great Valley, Sierra Nevada foothills, and the northwestern and southwestern parts of the state; (3) significant concentrations of paleo-endemism in Northwestern California, the northern Great Valley, and western Sonoran Desert, and neo-endemism in the White-Inyo Range, northern Mojave Desert, and southern Channel Islands. Multiple analyses were run to observe the effects on significance patterns of using different phylogenetic tree topologies (uncalibrated trees versus time-calibrated ultrametric trees) and using different representations of OTU ranges (herbarium specimen locations versus species distribution models). These analyses showed that examining the geographic distributions of branch lengths in a statistical framework adds a new dimension to California floristics that, in comparison with climatic data, helps to illuminate causes of endemism. In particular, the concentration of significant PE in more arid regions of California extends previous ideas about aridity as an evolutionary stimulus. The patterns seen are largely robust to phylogenetic uncertainty and time calibration but are sensitive to the use of occurrence data versus modeled ranges, indicating that special attention toward improving geographic distributional data should be top priority in the future for advancing understanding of spatial patterns of biodiversity.

Fractal analysis of earthquake swarms of Vogtland/NW-Bohemia intraplate seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittag, Reinhard J.

2003-03-01

The special type of intraplate microseismicity with swarm-like occurrence of earthquakes within the Vogtland/NW-Bohemian Region is analysed to reveal the nature and the origin of the seismogenic regime. The long-term data set of continuous seismic monitoring since 1962, including more than 26000 events within a range of about 5 units of local magnitude, provides an unique database for statistical investigations. Most earthquakes occur in narrow hypocentral volumes (clusters) within the lower part of the upper crust, but also single event occurrence outside of spatial clusters is observed. Temporal distribution of events is concentrated in clusters (swarms), which last some days until few month in dependence of intensity. Since 1962 three strong swarms occurred (1962, 1985/86, 2000), including two seismic cycles. Spatial clusters are distributed along a fault system of regional extension (Leipzig-Regensburger Störung), which is supposed to act as the joint tectonic fracture zone for the whole seismogenic region. Seismicity is analysed by fractal analysis, suggesting a unifractal behaviour of seismicity and uniform character of seismotectonic regime for the whole region. A tendency of decreasing fractal dimension values is observed for temporal distribution of earthquakes, indicating an increasing degree of temporal clustering from swarm to swarm. Following the idea of earthquake triggering by magma intrusions and related fluid and gas release into the tectonically pre-stressed parts of the crust, a steady increased intensity of intrusion and/or fluid and gas release might account for that observation. Additionally, seismic parameters for Vogtland/NW-Bohemia intraplate seismicity are compared with an adequate data set of mining-induced seismicity in a nearby mine of Lubin/Poland and with synthetic data sets to evaluate parameter estimation. Due to different seismogenic regime of tectonic and induced seismicity, significant differences between b-values and temporal dimension values are observed. Most significant for intraplate seismicity are relatively low fractal dimension values for temporal distribution. That observation reflects the strong degree of temporal earthquake clustering, which might explain the episodic character of earthquake swarms and support the idea of push-like triggering of earthquake avalanches by intruding magma.

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Preferential Flow Occurrence in the Shale Hills Catchment: From the Hillslope to the Catchment Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Lin, H.

2013-12-01

Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of preferential flow (PF) occurrence is important in revealing hillslope and catchment hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Quantitative assessment of the frequency and control of PF occurrence in the field, however, has been limited, especially at the landscape scale of hillslope and catchment. By using 5.5-years' (2007-2012) real-time soil moisture at 10 sites response to 323 precipitation events, we tested the temporal consistency of PF occurrence at the hillslope scale in the forested Shale Hills Catchment; and by using 25 additional sites with at least 1-year data (2011-2012), we evaluated the spatial patterns of PF occurrence across the catchment. To explore the potential effects of PF occurrence on catchment hydrology, wavelet analysis was performed on the recorded time series of hydrological signals (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, catchment discharge). Considerable temporal consistence was observed in both the frequency and the main controls of PF occurrence at the hillslope scale, which was attributed largely to the statistical stability of precipitation pattern over the monitoring period and the relatively stable subsurface preferential pathways. Preferential flow tended to occur more often in response to intense rainfall events, and favored the conditions at dry hilltop or wet valley floor sites. When upscaling to the entire catchment, topographic control on the PF occurrence was amplified remarkably, leading to the identification of a subsurface PF network in the catchment. Higher frequency of PF occurrence was observed at the valley floor (average 48%), hilltop (average 46%), and swales/hillslopes near the stream (average 40%), while the hillslopes in the eastern part of the catchment were least likely to experience PF (0-20%). No clear relationship, however, was observed between terrain attributes and PF occurrence, because the initiation and persistency of PF in this catchment was controlled jointly by complex interactions among landform units, soil types, initial soil moisture, precipitation features, and season. Through the wavelet method (coherence spectrum and phase differences), dual-pore filtering effects of soil system were proven, rendering it possible to further infer characteristic properties of the underlying hydrological processes in the subsurface. We found that preferential flow dominates the catchment discharge response at short-time periods (< 3 days), while the matrix flow may dominate the discharge response at the time scales of around 10-12 days. The temporal and spatial patterns of PF occurrence revealed in this study can help advance the modeling and prediction of complex PF dynamics in this and other similar landscapes.

Spatial distribution of pingos in Northern Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, G.; Jones, Benjamin M.

2010-01-01

Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of more than 6000 pingo locations in a 3.5 ?? 106 km2 region of Northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos likely formed through closed system freezing, typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between -3 and -11 ??C and mean annual air temperatures between -7 and -18 ??C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, hundreds of pingos along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth. ?? 2010 Author(s).

Using digital soil maps to infer edaphic affinities of plant species in Amazonia: Problems and prospects.

PubMed

Moulatlet, Gabriel Massaine; Zuquim, Gabriela; Figueiredo, Fernando Oliveira Gouvêa; Lehtonen, Samuli; Emilio, Thaise; Ruokolainen, Kalle; Tuomisto, Hanna

2017-10-01

Amazonia combines semi-continental size with difficult access, so both current ranges of species and their ability to cope with environmental change have to be inferred from sparse field data. Although efficient techniques for modeling species distributions on the basis of a small number of species occurrences exist, their success depends on the availability of relevant environmental data layers. Soil data are important in this context, because soil properties have been found to determine plant occurrence patterns in Amazonian lowlands at all spatial scales. Here we evaluate the potential for this purpose of three digital soil maps that are freely available online: SOTERLAC, HWSD, and SoilGrids. We first tested how well they reflect local soil cation concentration as documented with 1,500 widely distributed soil samples. We found that measured soil cation concentration differed by up to two orders of magnitude between sites mapped into the same soil class. The best map-based predictor of local soil cation concentration was obtained with a regression model combining soil classes from HWSD with cation exchange capacity (CEC) from SoilGrids. Next, we evaluated to what degree the known edaphic affinities of thirteen plant species (as documented with field data from 1,200 of the soil sample sites) can be inferred from the soil maps. The species segregated clearly along the soil cation concentration gradient in the field, but only partially along the model-estimated cation concentration gradient, and hardly at all along the mapped CEC gradient. The main problems reducing the predictive ability of the soil maps were insufficient spatial resolution and/or georeferencing errors combined with thematic inaccuracy and absence of the most relevant edaphic variables. Addressing these problems would provide better models of the edaphic environment for ecological studies in Amazonia.

Occurrence survey and spatial distribution of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl surfactants in groundwater, surface water, and sediments from tropical environments.

PubMed

Munoz, Gabriel; Labadie, Pierre; Botta, Fabrizio; Lestremau, François; Lopez, Benjamin; Geneste, Emmanuel; Pardon, Patrick; Dévier, Marie-Hélène; Budzinski, Hélène

2017-12-31

The occurrence and spatial distribution of 22 selected perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in surface water (n=75), groundwater (n=80) and surficial sediment (n=15) were investigated for the first time in the tropical areas constituted by the French Overseas Territories (French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mayotte and Reunion). Descriptive statistics and correlations between PFASs were evaluated through the use of specific statistical treatments to handle left-censored data ("non-detects"). PFASs were ubiquitous in these samples and detection frequencies as high as 79% for perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and 65% for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) were reported in surface waters. ∑PFASs was in the range

The Spatial Scaffold: The Effects of Spatial Context on Memory for Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, Jessica; Wynn, Jordana; Moscovitch, Morris

2016-01-01

Events always unfold in a spatial context, leading to the claim that it serves as a scaffold for encoding and retrieving episodic memories. The ubiquitous co-occurrence of spatial context with events may induce participants to generate a spatial context when hearing scenarios of events in which it is absent. Spatial context should also serve as an…

Exploring the Potential of a Global Emerging Contaminant Early Warning Network through the Use of Retrospective Suspect Screening with High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Alygizakis, Nikiforos A; Samanipour, Saer; Hollender, Juliane; Ibáñez, María; Kaserzon, Sarit; Kokkali, Varvara; van Leerdam, Jan A; Mueller, Jochen F; Pijnappels, Martijn; Reid, Malcolm J; Schymanski, Emma L; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Thomaidis, Nikolaos S; Thomas, Kevin V

2018-05-01

A key challenge in the environmental and exposure sciences is to establish experimental evidence of the role of chemical exposure in human and environmental systems. High resolution and accurate tandem mass spectrometry (HRMS) is increasingly being used for the analysis of environmental samples. One lauded benefit of HRMS is the possibility to retrospectively process data for (previously omitted) compounds that has led to the archiving of HRMS data. Archived HRMS data affords the possibility of exploiting historical data to rapidly and effectively establish the temporal and spatial occurrence of newly identified contaminants through retrospective suspect screening. We propose to establish a global emerging contaminant early warning network to rapidly assess the spatial and temporal distribution of contaminants of emerging concern in environmental samples through performing retrospective analysis on HRMS data. The effectiveness of such a network is demonstrated through a pilot study, where eight reference laboratories with available archived HRMS data retrospectively screened data acquired from aqueous environmental samples collected in 14 countries on 3 different continents. The widespread spatial occurrence of several surfactants (e.g., polyethylene glycols ( PEGs ) and C12AEO-PEGs ), transformation products of selected drugs (e.g., gabapentin-lactam, metoprolol-acid, carbamazepine-10-hydroxy, omeprazole-4-hydroxy-sulfide, and 2-benzothiazole-sulfonic-acid), and industrial chemicals (3-nitrobenzenesulfonate and bisphenol-S) was revealed. Obtaining identifications of increased reliability through retrospective suspect screening is challenging, and recommendations for dealing with issues such as broad chromatographic peaks, data acquisition, and sensitivity are provided.

Phytoplankton standing crops within an Antarctic ice edge assessed by satellite remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, C. W.; Mcclain, C. R.; Comiso, J. C.; Smith, W. O., Jr.

1988-01-01

The dynamic interactions between the pack-ice recession and the occurrence of ice blooms of phytoplankton in waters of the marginal ice zone within an Antarctic ice edge were investigated using CZCS and SMMR imageries from the Nimbus 7 satellite (September 16-December 17, 1983), together with in situ measurements of pigments and sea ice concentration carried out from November 7 to December 2. A substantial amount of spatial variability in pigment concentration was observed to occur along the ice edge in the Weddell Sea. The relationships among light, ice distribution, and vertical stability and their effects on observed spatial variations in phytoplankton biomass are discussed. The results of this investigation suggest that the retreat of ice provides an input of significant volumes of meltwater which creates vertical stability for a period necessary to permit growth and accumulation of phytoplankton.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Campylobacter colonization in Danish broilers.

PubMed

Chowdhury, S; Themudo, G E; Sandberg, M; Ersbøll, A K

2013-05-01

Despite a number of risk-factor studies in different countries, the epidemiology of Campylobacter colonization in broilers, particularly spatial dependencies, is still not well understood. A series of analyses (visualization and exploratory) were therefore conducted in order to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of Campylobacter in the Danish broiler population. In this study, we observed a non-random temporal occurrence of Campylobacter, with high prevalence during summer and low during winter. Significant spatio-temporal clusters were identified in the same areas in the summer months from 2007 to 2009. Range of influence between broiler farms were estimated at distances of 9.6 km and 13.5 km in different years. Identification of areas and time with greater risk indicates variable presence of risk factors with space and time. Implementation of safety measures on farms within high-risk clusters during summer could have an impact in reducing prevalence.

Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J; Bichet, Coraline; Julliard, Romain; Garnier, Stéphane; Lendvai, Adám Z; Chastel, Olivier; Sorci, Gabriele

2013-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites.

Accounting for imperfect detection and survey bias in statistical analysis of presence-only data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Using mathematical proof and simulation-based comparisons, I demonstrate that biases induced by errors in detection or biased selection of survey locations can be reduced or eliminated by using the hierarchical model to analyse presence-only data in conjunction with counts observed in planned surveys. I show that a relatively small number of high-quality data (from planned surveys) can be used to leverage the information in presence-only observations, which usually have broad spatial coverage but may not be informative of both occurrence and detectability of individuals. Because a variety of sampling protocols can be used in planned surveys, this approach to the analysis of presence-only data is widely applicable. In addition, since the point-process model is formulated at the level of an individual, it can be extended to account for biological interactions between individuals and temporal changes in their spatial distributions.

Defining fire environment zones in the boreal forests of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liang, Yu

2015-06-15

Fire activity in boreal forests will substantially increase with prolonged growing seasons under a warming climate. This trend poses challenges to managing fires in boreal forest landscapes. A fire environment zone map offers a basis for evaluating these fire-related problems and designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of management resources across a landscape. Toward that goal, we identified three fire environment zones across boreal forest landscapes in northeastern China using analytical methods to identify spatial clustering of the environmental variables of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. The three fire environment zones were found to be in strong agreement with the spatial distributions of the historical fire data (occurrence, size, and frequency) for 1966-2005. This paper discusses how the resulting fire environment zone map can be used to guide forest fire management and fire regime prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Morphology and spatial patterns of Macrotermes mounds in the SE Katanga, D.R. Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazirake Mujinya, Basile; Mees, Florias; Erens, Hans; Baert, Geert; Van Ranst, Eric

2015-04-01

The spatial distribution patterns and morphological characteristics of Macrotermes falciger mounds were investigated in the Lubumbashi area, D.R. Congo. Examination of the spatial patterns of M. falciger mounds on high resolution satellite images reveals a mean areal number density of 2.9 ± 0.4 mounds ha-1. The high relative number of inactive mounds in the region, along with their regular distribution pattern, suggests that current termite mound occurrences are largely palaeostructures. Mound positions in the habitat are consistent with intraspecific competition rather than soil and substrate characteristics as controlling factor. Detailed morphological description of five deep termite-mound profiles (~7 m height/depth) shows that carbonate pedofeatures are present in all studied profiles, in contrast to the control soils. They mainly occur in the form of soft powdery masses, nodules and coatings on ped faces, all clearly pedogenic. Carbonate coatings occur mainly between 1 m above the soil surface and 1 m below that level in all mound profiles. Carbonate nodules do show a different distribution pattern at each site. Furthermore, when the studied profiles are considered to represent a toposequence, the stone layer occurs at greater depth in topographically low areas compared to crest and slope positions, which is mainly conditioned by erosion. The clay content of epigeal mounds increases from the summit to the toe slope, which can be largely related to differences in parent material. The Mn-Fe oxide concentrations occurring in all studied termite mound profiles reflect a seasonally high perched water table beneath the mound, which is more pronounced at the lower slope positions.

The Role of Diffusion in the Transport of Energetic Electrons during Solar Flares

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bian, Nicolas H.; Kontar, Eduard P.; Emslie, A. Gordon, E-mail: nicolas.bian@glasgow.gla.ac.uk, E-mail: emslieg@wku.edu

2017-02-01

The transport of the energy contained in suprathermal electrons in solar flares plays a key role in our understanding of many aspects of flare physics, from the spatial distributions of hard X-ray emission and energy deposition in the ambient atmosphere to global energetics. Historically the transport of these particles has been largely treated through a deterministic approach, in which first-order secular energy loss to electrons in the ambient target is treated as the dominant effect, with second-order diffusive terms (in both energy and angle) generally being either treated as a small correction or even neglected. Here, we critically analyze thismore » approach, and we show that spatial diffusion through pitch-angle scattering necessarily plays a very significant role in the transport of electrons. We further show that a satisfactory treatment of the diffusion process requires consideration of non-local effects, so that the electron flux depends not just on the local gradient of the electron distribution function but on the value of this gradient within an extended region encompassing a significant fraction of a mean free path. Our analysis applies generally to pitch-angle scattering by a variety of mechanisms, from Coulomb collisions to turbulent scattering. We further show that the spatial transport of electrons along the magnetic field of a flaring loop can be modeled rather effectively as a Continuous Time Random Walk with velocity-dependent probability distribution functions of jump sizes and occurrences, both of which can be expressed in terms of the scattering mean free path.« less

Genes mirror geography in Daphnia magna.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Reisser, Céline; Dukić, Marinela; Haag, Christoph R; Ebert, Dieter

2015-09-01

Identifying the presence and magnitude of population genetic structure remains a major consideration in evolutionary biology as doing so allows one to understand the demographic history of a species as well as make predictions of how the evolutionary process will proceed. Next-generation sequencing methods allow us to reconsider previous ideas and conclusions concerning the distribution of genetic variation, and what this distribution implies about a given species evolutionary history. A previous phylogeographic study of the crustacean Daphnia magna suggested that, despite strong genetic differentiation among populations at a local scale, the species shows only moderate genetic structure across its European range, with a spatially patchy occurrence of individual lineages. We apply RAD sequencing to a sample of D. magna collected across a wide swath of the species' Eurasian range and analyse the data using principle component analysis (PCA) of genetic variation and Procrustes analytical approaches, to quantify spatial genetic structure. We find remarkable consistency between the first two PCA axes and the geographic coordinates of individual sampling points, suggesting that, on a continent-wide scale, genetic differentiation is driven to a large extent by geographic distance. The observed pattern is consistent with unimpeded (i.e. no barriers, landscape or otherwise) migration at large spatial scales, despite the fragmented and patchy nature of favourable habitats at local scales. With high-resolution genetic data similar patterns may be uncovered for other species with wide geographic distributions, allowing an increased understanding of how genetic drift and selection have shaped their evolutionary history. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2010-01-01

Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raia, S.; Alvioli, M.; Rossi, M.; Baum, R.L.; Godt, J.W.; Guzzetti, F.

2013-01-01

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

The Occurrence and Prevalence of Giraffe Skin Disease in Protected Areas of Northern Tanzania.

PubMed

Lee, Derek E; Bond, Monica L

2016-07-01

Giraffe skin disease (GSD) is a disorder of undetermined etiology that causes lesions on the forelimbs of Masai giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi). We estimated occurrence and prevalence of GSD in six wildlife conservation areas of Tanzania. The disjunct spatial pattern of occurrence implies that environmental factors may influence GSD.

Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the late holocene.

PubMed

Gavin, Daniel G; Hu, Feng Sheng; Lertzman, Kenneth; Corbett, Peter

2006-07-01

Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here stand-scale (<100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from a region are essential if climate-fire relations are to be reliably described.

Invasive potential of cattle fever ticks in the southern United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Abstract' Background For >100 years cattle production in the southern United States has been threatened by cattle fever. It is caused by an invasive parasite-vector complex that includes the protozoan hemoparasites Babesia bovis and B. bigemina, which are transmitted among domestic cattle via Rhipicephalus tick vectors of the subgenus Boophilus. In 1906 an eradication effort was started and by 1943 Boophilus ticks had been confined to a narrow tick eradication quarantine area (TEQA) along the Texas-Mexico border. However, a dramatic increase in tick infestations in areas outside the TEQA over the last decade suggests these tick vectors may be poised to re-invade the southern United States. We investigated historical and potential future distributions of climatic habitats of cattle fever ticks to assess the potential for a range expansion. Methods We built robust spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the vector species Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B.) annulatus across the southern United States for three time periods: 1906, present day (2012), and 2050. We used analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to identify persistent tick occurrences and analysis of bias in the climate proximate to these occurrences to identify key environmental parameters associated with the ecology of both species. We then used ecological niche modeling algorithms GARP and Maxent to construct models that related known occurrences of ticks in the TEQA during 2001–2011 with geospatial data layers that summarized important climate parameters at all three time periods. Results We identified persistent tick infestations and specific climate parameters that appear to be drivers of ecological niches of the two tick species. Spatial models projected onto climate data representative of climate in 1906 reproduced historical pre-eradication tick distributions. Present-day predictions, although constrained to areas near the TEQA, extrapolated well onto climate projections for 2050. Conclusions Our models indicate the potential for range expansion of climate suitable for survival of R. microplus and R. annulatus in the southern United States by mid-century, which increases the risk of reintroduction of these ticks and cattle tick fever into major cattle producing areas. PMID:24742062

The relative contribution of climatic, edaphic, and biotic drivers to risk of tree mortality from drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

March, R. G.; Moore, G. W.; Edgar, C. B.; Lawing, A. M.; Washington-Allen, R. A.

2015-12-01

In recorded history, the 2011 Texas Drought was comparable in severity only to a drought that occurred 300 years ago. By mid-September, 88% of the state experienced 'exceptional' conditions, with the rest experiencing 'extreme' or 'severe' drought. By recent estimates, the 2011 Texas Drought killed 6.2% of all the state's trees, at a rate nearly 9 times greater than average. The vast spatial scale and relatively uniform intensity of this drought has provided an opportunity to examine the comparative interactions among forest types, terrain, and edaphic factors across major climate gradients which in 2011 were subjected to extreme drought conditions that ultimately caused massive tree mortality. We used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to rank environmental landscape factors with the potential to drive drought-related tree mortality and test the assumption that the relative importance of these factors are scale-dependent. Occurrence data of dead trees were collected during the summer of 2012 from 599 field plots distributed across Texas with 30% used for model evaluation. Bioclimatic variables, ecoregions, soils characteristics, and topographic variables were modeled with drought-killed tree occurrence. Their relative contribution to the model was seen as their relative importance in driving mortality. To test determinants at a more local scale, we examined Landsat 7 scenes in East and West Texas with moderate-resolution data for the same variables above with the exception of climate. All models were significantly better than random in binomial tests of omission and receiver operating characteristic analyses. The modeled spatial distribution of probability of occurrence showed high probability of mortality in the east-central oak woodlands and the mixed pine-hardwood forest region in northeast Texas. Both regional and local models were dominated by biotic factors (ecoregion and forest type, respectively). Forest density and precipitation of driest month also contributed highly to the regional model. The local models gave more importance to available water storage at root zone and hillshade. Understanding how environmental factors drive drought-related mortality can help predict vulnerable landscapes and aid in preparing for future drought events.

Identifying Suitable Locations for Mesophotic Hard Corals Offshore of Maui, Hawai‘i

PubMed Central

Costa, Bryan; Kendall, Matthew S.; Parrish, Frank A.; Rooney, John; Boland, Raymond C.; Chow, Malia; Lecky, Joey; Montgomery, Anthony; Spalding, Heather

2015-01-01

Mesophotic hard corals (MHC) are increasingly threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors, including impacts from fishing, land-based sources of pollution, and ocean acidification. However, little is known about their geographic distributions (particularly around the Pacific islands) because it is logistically challenging and expensive to gather data in the 30 to 150 meter depth range where these organisms typically live. The goal of this study was to begin to fill this knowledge gap by modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of three genera of mesophotic hard corals offshore of Maui in the Main Hawaiian Islands. Maximum Entropy modeling software was used to create separate maps of predicted probability of occurrence and uncertainty for: (1) Leptoseris, (2) Montipora, and (3) Porites. Genera prevalence was derived from the in situ presence/absence data, and used to convert relative habitat suitability to probability of occurrence values. Approximately 1,300 georeferenced records of the occurrence of MHC, and 34 environmental predictors were used to train the model ensembles. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were between 0.89 and 0.97, indicating excellent overall model performance. Mean uncertainty and mean absolute error for the spatial predictions ranged from 0.006% to 0.05% and 3.73% to 17.6%, respectively. Depth, distance from shore, euphotic depth (mean and standard deviation) and sea surface temperature (mean and standard deviation) were identified as the six most influential predictor variables for partitioning habitats among the three genera. MHC were concentrated between Hanaka‘ō‘ō and Papawai Points offshore of western Maui most likely because this area hosts warmer, clearer and calmer water conditions almost year round. While these predictions helped to fill some knowledge gaps offshore of Maui, many information gaps remain in the Hawaiian Archipelago and Pacific Islands. This approach may be used to identify other potentially suitable areas for MHCs, helping scientists and resource managers prioritize sites, and focus their limited resources on areas that may be of higher scientific or conservation value. PMID:26153883

Identifying Suitable Locations for Mesophotic Hard Corals Offshore of Maui, Hawai'i.

PubMed

Costa, Bryan; Kendall, Matthew S; Parrish, Frank A; Rooney, John; Boland, Raymond C; Chow, Malia; Lecky, Joey; Montgomery, Anthony; Spalding, Heather

2015-01-01

Mesophotic hard corals (MHC) are increasingly threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors, including impacts from fishing, land-based sources of pollution, and ocean acidification. However, little is known about their geographic distributions (particularly around the Pacific islands) because it is logistically challenging and expensive to gather data in the 30 to 150 meter depth range where these organisms typically live. The goal of this study was to begin to fill this knowledge gap by modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of three genera of mesophotic hard corals offshore of Maui in the Main Hawaiian Islands. Maximum Entropy modeling software was used to create separate maps of predicted probability of occurrence and uncertainty for: (1) Leptoseris, (2) Montipora, and (3) Porites. Genera prevalence was derived from the in situ presence/absence data, and used to convert relative habitat suitability to probability of occurrence values. Approximately 1,300 georeferenced records of the occurrence of MHC, and 34 environmental predictors were used to train the model ensembles. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were between 0.89 and 0.97, indicating excellent overall model performance. Mean uncertainty and mean absolute error for the spatial predictions ranged from 0.006% to 0.05% and 3.73% to 17.6%, respectively. Depth, distance from shore, euphotic depth (mean and standard deviation) and sea surface temperature (mean and standard deviation) were identified as the six most influential predictor variables for partitioning habitats among the three genera. MHC were concentrated between Hanaka'ō'ō and Papawai Points offshore of western Maui most likely because this area hosts warmer, clearer and calmer water conditions almost year round. While these predictions helped to fill some knowledge gaps offshore of Maui, many information gaps remain in the Hawaiian Archipelago and Pacific Islands. This approach may be used to identify other potentially suitable areas for MHCs, helping scientists and resource managers prioritize sites, and focus their limited resources on areas that may be of higher scientific or conservation value.

Characterization of past landslides and slope susceptibility analysis for Lima and Callao provinces, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatard, Lucile; Villacorta, Sandra; Metzger, Pascale

2013-04-01

85% of people exposed to earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and drought live in developing countries (IPU, 2010). This population is also exposed to the landslide risk as this phenomenon is mainly triggered by earthquakes and rainfall. There is an urgent need to propose methods to evaluate and mitigate the landslide risk for developing countries, where few studies were undergone and data, and information on data, are scarce. In this study, we characterize a landslide inventory set up for the megalopolis of Lima, Peru, by the local geological bureau (INGEMMET). This inventory was set up using satellite images and includes landslides of all ages. It is composed of two landslide types: rockfalls and debris flows (huaycos) that we investigate together and separately. First, we describe qualitatively the landslide occurrences in terms of geology, slope steepness, altitude, etc. We notably find that debris flows occur at altitudes larger than the ones of the rockfalls, probably due to the climatic conditions. Then we find that the rockfalls and debris flows area distributions follow a power law when investigated separately whereas it does not follow a power law when investigated together. This highlights a logical difference of mechanics between the two landslide types. Then, using the dimension of correlation D (Grassberger and Procaccia, 1983) we show that the event spatial occurrences are not uniformly distributed but clustered. It supports the existence of controlling parameters on the spatial occurrence of landslides and the research to identify them. Last, we investigate the relationships between different landslide parameters (geology, altitude, slope steepness, ...) using the linear correlation coefficient r, and we find that all these parameters are independent to each other. This allows us to investigate each parameter separately in terms of landslide susceptibility and to define values for which the landslide susceptibility is low, medium or high for each parameter. The characterization of the landslide database is a necessary step to assess the good quality of the data. It then allows us to pursue our investigation and set up a robust landslide susceptibility analysis using our good-quality inventory.

Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

2008-01-01

Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (number of sinkholes/km2 year). Such spatial and temporal predictions, frequently derived from limited records and based on the assumption that past sinkhole activity may be extrapolated to the future, are non-corroborated hypotheses. Validation methods allow us to assess the predictive capability of the susceptibility maps and to transform them into probability maps. Avoiding the most hazardous areas by preventive planning is the safest strategy for development in sinkhole-prone areas. Corrective measures could be applied to reduce the dissolution activity and subsidence processes. A more practical solution for safe development is to reduce the vulnerability of the structures by using subsidence-proof designs. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Coastal nutrification and coral health at Porto Seguro reefs, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, O.; Attrill, M.; Nimmo, M.

2003-04-01

Human activities have substantially increased the natural flux of nutrients to coastal systems worldwide. In Brazilian reefs, all major stresses (sedimentation, overfishing, tourism-related activities and nutrification) are human induced. To assess nutrification levels in Brazilian coastal reefs, measurements of the distribution patterns of nutrients and chlorophyll concentrations were conducted in three nearshore and offshore reefs with distinct nutrient inputs along the south coast of Bahia State. Seawater and porewater samples were analysed for soluble reactive phosphorus, total oxidised nitrogen and reactive silica. Benthic surveys were performed at all sites to investigate the relationships between benthic community composition and nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations. Sampling was undertaken in dry and rainy seasons. Results of both seawater and porewater nutrient measurements revealed the occurrence of consistent spatial and temporal patterns. An inshore-offshore gradient reflects the occurrence of land-based point sources, with significant amount of nutrients being delivered by human activities on the coast (untreated sewage and groundwater seepage). Another spatial gradient is related to distance from a localized source of pollution (an urban settlement without sewerage treatment) with two nearshore reefs presenting distinct nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations. Seasonal variations suggest that submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is the primary source of nutrients for the coastal reefs during rainy season. The data also suggests that the SGD effect is not restricted to nearshore reefs, and may be an important factor controlling the differences between landward and seaward sides on the offshore reef. Benthic community assessment revealed that turf alga is the dominant group in all studied reefs and that zoanthids are the organisms most adapted to take advantage of nutrient increase in coastal areas. At nearshore reefs, there was a negative correlation between zoanthids and algal abundance and a positive correlation with the amount of available space for settlement. On the offshore reef, correlation of algal cover with both zoanthids and available space were negative, suggesting that hard substrate may be the primary limiting factor for algal settlement and growth in the nearshore reefs. Highly variable physical disturbances (like wave energy and low tide exposure) between landward and seaward reef sides appear to be the factors controlling algal distribution in the offshore reef. Highly spatial variability in coral cover ultimately reflects the patchy distribution of stony corals over the reefs.

The Spatial Vision Tree: A Generic Pattern Recognition Engine- Scientific Foundations, Design Principles, and Preliminary Tree Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rahman, Zia-ur; Jobson, Daniel J.; Woodell, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

New foundational ideas are used to define a novel approach to generic visual pattern recognition. These ideas proceed from the starting point of the intrinsic equivalence of noise reduction and pattern recognition when noise reduction is taken to its theoretical limit of explicit matched filtering. This led us to think of the logical extension of sparse coding using basis function transforms for both de-noising and pattern recognition to the full pattern specificity of a lexicon of matched filter pattern templates. A key hypothesis is that such a lexicon can be constructed and is, in fact, a generic visual alphabet of spatial vision. Hence it provides a tractable solution for the design of a generic pattern recognition engine. Here we present the key scientific ideas, the basic design principles which emerge from these ideas, and a preliminary design of the Spatial Vision Tree (SVT). The latter is based upon a cryptographic approach whereby we measure a large aggregate estimate of the frequency of occurrence (FOO) for each pattern. These distributions are employed together with Hamming distance criteria to design a two-tier tree. Then using information theory, these same FOO distributions are used to define a precise method for pattern representation. Finally the experimental performance of the preliminary SVT on computer generated test images and complex natural images is assessed.

Conservation Action Based on Threatened Species Capture Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Richness in Breeding and Wintering Populations of Central Asian Birds

PubMed Central

Schweizer, Manuel; Ayé, Raffael; Kashkarov, Roman; Roth, Tobias

2014-01-01

Although phylogenetic diversity has been suggested to be relevant from a conservation point of view, its role is still limited in applied nature conservation. Recently, the practice of investing conservation resources based on threatened species was identified as a reason for the slow integration of phylogenetic diversity in nature conservation planning. One of the main arguments is based on the observation that threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree. However this argument seems to dismiss the fact that conservation action is a spatially explicit process, and even if threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree, the occurrence of threatened species could still indicate areas with above average phylogenetic diversity and consequently could protect phylogenetic diversity. Here we aim to study the selection of important bird areas in Central Asia, which were nominated largely based on the presence of threatened bird species. We show that although threatened species occurring in Central Asia do not capture phylogenetically more distinct species than expected by chance, the current spatially explicit conservation approach of selecting important bird areas covers above average taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of breeding and wintering birds. We conclude that the spatially explicit processes of conservation actions need to be considered in the current discussion of whether new prioritization methods are needed to complement conservation action based on threatened species. PMID:25337861

Implications of spatial patterns of roosting and movements of American robins for West Nile virus transmission.

PubMed

Benson, Thomas J; Ward, Michael P; Lampman, Richard L; Raim, Arlo; Weatherhead, Patrick J

2012-10-01

The arrival of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America has led to interest in the interaction between birds, the amplification hosts of WNV, and Culex mosquitoes, the primary WNV vectors. American robins (Turdus migratorius) are particularly important amplification hosts of WNV, and because the vector Culex mosquitoes are primarily nocturnal and feed on roosting birds, robin communal roosting behavior may play an important role in the transmission ecology of WNV. Using data from 43 radio-tracked individuals, we determined spatial and temporal patterns of robin roosting behavior, and how these patterns related to the distribution of WNV-infected mosquitoes. Use of the communal roost and fidelity to foraging areas was highly variable both within and among individual robins, and differed markedly from patterns documented in a previous study of robin roosting. Although there were clear seasonal patterns to both robin roosting and WNV occurrence, there was no significant relationship between communal roosting by robins and temporal or spatial patterns of WNV-positive mosquitoes. Our results suggest that, although robins may be important as WNV hosts, communal roosts are not necessarily important for WNV amplification. Other factors, including the availability and distribution of high-quality mosquito habitat and favorable weather for mosquito reproduction, may influence the importance of robin roosts for local WNV amplification and transmission.

Spatial analysis of ecosystem service relationships to improve targeting of payments for hydrological services

PubMed Central

Manson, Robert H.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Geissert, Daniel

2018-01-01

Payment for hydrological services (PHS) are popular tools for conserving ecosystems and their water-related services. However, improving the spatial targeting and impacts of PHS, as well as their ability to foster synergies with other ecosystem services (ES), remain challenging. We aimed at using spatial analyses to evaluate the targeting performance of México’s National PHS program in central Veracruz. We quantified the effectiveness of areas targeted for PHS in actually covering areas of high HS provision and social priority during 2003–2013. First, we quantified provisioning and spatial distributions of two target (water yield and soil retention), and one non-target ES (carbon storage) using InVEST. Subsequently, pairwise relationships among ES were quantified by using spatial correlation and overlap analyses. Finally, we evaluated targeting by: (i) prioritizing areas of individual and overlapping ES; (ii) quantifying spatial co-occurrences of these priority areas with those targeted by PHS; (iii) evaluating the extent to which PHS directly contribute to HS delivery; and (iv), testing if PHS targeted areas disproportionately covered areas with high ecological and social priority. We found that modelled priority areas exhibited non-random distributions and distinct spatial patterns. Our results show significant pairwise correlations between all ES suggesting synergistic relationships. However, our analysis showed a significantly lower overlap than expected and thus significant mismatches between PHS targeted areas and all types of priority areas. These findings suggest that the targeting of areas with high HS provisioning and social priority by Mexico’s PHS program could be improved significantly. This study underscores: (1) the importance of using maps of HS provisioning as main targeting criteria in PHS design to channel payments towards areas that require future conservation, and (2) the need for future research that helps balance ecological and socioeconomic targeting criteria. PMID:29462205

Scaling Effects of Cr(VI) Reduction Kinetics. The Role of Geochemical Heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Li; Li, Li

2015-10-22

The natural subsurface is highly heterogeneous with minerals distributed in different spatial patterns. Fundamental understanding of how mineral spatial distribution patterns regulate sorption process is important for predicting the transport and fate of chemicals. Existing studies about the sorption was carried out in well-mixed batch reactors or uniformly packed columns, with few data available on the effects of spatial heterogeneities. As a result, there is a lack of data and understanding on how spatial heterogeneities control sorption processes. In this project, we aim to understand and develop modeling capabilities to predict the sorption of Cr(VI), an omnipresent contaminant in naturalmore » systems due to its natural occurrence and industrial utilization. We systematically examine the role of spatial patterns of illite, a common clay, in determining the extent of transport limitation and scaling effects associated with Cr(VI) sorption capacity and kinetics using column experiments and reactive transport modeling. Our results showed that the sorbed mass and rates can differ by an order of magnitude due to of the illite spatial heterogeneities and transport limitation. With constraints from data, we also developed the capabilities of modeling Cr(VI) in heterogeneous media. The developed model is then utilized to understand the general principles that govern the relationship between sorption and connectivity, a key measure of the spatial pattern characteristics. This correlation can be used to estimate Cr(VI) sorption characteristics in heterogeneous porous media. Insights gained here bridge gaps between laboratory and field application in hydrogeology and geochemical field, and advance predictive understanding of reactive transport processes in the natural heterogeneous subsurface. We believe that these findings will be of interest to a large number of environmental geochemists and engineers, hydrogeologists, and those interested in contaminant fate and transport, water quality and water composition, and natural attenuation processes in natural systems.« less

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change.

PubMed

Lieske, David J; Lloyd, Vett K

2018-03-01

Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial agreement with baseline model predictions, but the presence of canine Borrelia infections beyond the climate envelope, defined by the highest probabilities of tick occurrence, suggest the presence of Bbss-carrying ticks distributed by long-range dispersal events. This research demonstrates that predictive statistical modelling of multi-year surveillance information is an efficient way to identify areas where I. scapularis is most likely to occur, and can be used to guide subsequent active sampling efforts in order to better understand fine scale species distributional patterns. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

The Width Distribution of Loops and Strands in the Solar Corona—Are We Hitting Rock Bottom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, Markus J.; Peter, Hardi

2017-05-01

In this study, we analyze Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Hi-C images in order to investigate absolute limits for the finest loop strands. We develop a model of the occurrence-size distribution function of coronal loop widths, characterized by the lower limit of widths w min, the peak (or most frequent) width w p , the peak occurrence number n p , and a power-law slope a. Our data analysis includes automated tracing of curvilinear features with the OCCULT-2 code, automated sampling of the cross-sectional widths of coronal loops, and fitting of the theoretical size distribution to the observed distribution. With Monte Carlo simulations and variable pixel sizes {{Δ }}x, we derive a first diagnostic criterion to discriminate whether the loop widths are unresolved ({w}p/{{Δ }}x≈ 2.5+/- 0.2) or fully resolved (if {w}p/{{Δ }}x≳ 2.7). For images with resolved loop widths, we can apply a second diagnostic criterion that predicts the lower limit of loop widths as a function of the spatial resolution. We find that the loop widths are marginally resolved in AIA images but are fully resolved in Hi-C images, where our model predicts a most frequent (peak) value at {w}p≈ 550 {km}, in agreement with recent results of Brooks et al. This result agrees with the statistics of photospheric granulation sizes and thus supports coronal heating mechanisms operating on the macroscopic scale of photospheric magneto-convection, rather than nanoflare braiding models on unresolved microscopic scales.

New distributional records of the stygobitic crayfish Cambarus cryptodytes (Decapoda: Cambaridae) in the Floridan Aquifer System of southwestern Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenolio, Dante B.; Niemiller, Matthew L.; Gluesenkamp, Andrew G.; Mckee, Anna; Taylor, Steven J.

2017-01-01

Cambarus cryptodytes (Dougherty Plain Cave Crayfish) is an obligate inhabitant of groundwater habitats (i.e., a stygobiont) with troglomorphic adaptations in the Floridan aquifer system of southwestern Georgia and adjacent Florida panhandle, particularly in the Dougherty Plain and Marianna Lowlands. Documented occurrences of Dougherty Plain Cave Crayfish are spatially distributed as 2 primary clusters separated by a region where few caves and springs have been documented; however, the paucity of humanly accessible karst features in this intermediate region has inhibited investigation of the species' distribution. To work around this constraint, we employed bottle traps to sample for Dougherty Plain Cave Crayfish and other groundwater fauna in 18 groundwater-monitoring wells that access the Floridan aquifer system in 10 counties in southwestern Georgia. We captured 32 Dougherty Plain Cave Crayfish in 9 wells in 8 counties between September 2014 and August 2015. We detected crayfish at depths ranging from 17.9 m to 40.6 m, and established new county records for Early, Miller, Mitchell, and Seminole counties in Georgia, increasing the number of occurrences in Georgia from 8 to 17 sites. In addition, a new US Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC8) watershed record was established for the Spring Creek watershed. These new records fill in the distribution gap between the 2 previously known clusters in Georgia and Jackson County, FL. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that deployment of bottle traps in groundwater-monitoring wells can be an effective approach to presence—absence surveys of stygobionts, especially in areas where surface access to groundwater is limited.

Systematic survey of high-resolution b value imaging along Californian faults: Inference on asperities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tormann, T.; Wiemer, S.; Mignan, A.

2014-03-01

Understanding and forecasting earthquake occurrences is presumably linked to understanding the stress distribution in the Earth's crust. This cannot be measured instrumentally with useful coverage. However, the size distribution of earthquakes, quantified by the Gutenberg-Richter b value, is possibly a proxy to differential stress conditions and could therewith act as a crude stress-meter wherever seismicity is observed. In this study, we improve the methodology of b value imaging for application to a high-resolution 3-D analysis of a complex fault network. In particular, we develop a distance-dependent sampling algorithm and introduce a linearity measure to restrict our output to those regions where the magnitude distribution strictly follows a power law. We assess the catalog completeness along the fault traces using the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness method and systematically image b values for 243 major fault segments in California. We identify and report b value structures, revisiting previously published features, e.g., the Parkfield asperity, and documenting additional anomalies, e.g., along the San Andreas and Northridge faults. Combining local b values with local earthquake productivity rates, we derive probability maps for the annual potential of one or more M6 events as indicated by the microseismicity of the last three decades. We present a physical concept of how different stressing conditions along a fault surface may lead to b value variation and explain nonlinear frequency-magnitude distributions. Detailed spatial b value information and its physical interpretation can advance our understanding of earthquake occurrence and ideally lead to improved forecasting ability.

Predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a maximum entropy modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-12-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean conditions influence marine fish distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change and forecasting how fish may be distributed in the future. Species distribution models (SDMs) can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering species in space or time as a function of environmental conditions. Traditional SDMs are applied to scientific-survey data that include both presences and absences. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are promising tools as they can be applied to presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or citizen science programs. We used MaxEnt to relate the occurrence records of marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) from NOAA Northeast Fisheries Observer Program to environmental conditions. Environmental variables from earth system data, such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea bottom temperature (SBT), Chlorophyll-a, bathymetry, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), were matched with species occurrence for MaxEnt modeling the fish distributions in Northeast Shelf area. We developed habitat suitability maps for these species, and assessed the relative influence of environmental factors on their distributions. Overall, SST and Chlorophyll-a had greatest influence on their monthly distributions, with bathymetry and SBT having moderate influence and climate indices (NAO and AMO) having little influence. Across months, Atlantic herring distribution was most related to SST 10th percentile, and Atlantic mackerel and butterfish distributions were most related to previous month SST. The fish distributions were most affected by previous month Chlorophyll-a in summer months, which may indirectly indicate the accumulative impact of primary productivity. Results highlighted the importance of spatial and temporal scales when using SDMs to investigate the habitat suitability and distributions of a focal species. MaxEnt models have the potential to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, or forecasts of future species distributions.

Preliminary results on landslides triggered by the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake of 14 November 2016 in northeast South Island, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorum, Tolga; Yildirim, Cengiz

2017-04-01

This study presents the first results on analysis of the landslides triggered by the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake that occurred on November 14, 2016 in the region between the Hikurangi subduction system of the North Island and the oblique collisional regime of the South Island (Alpine Fault). The earthquake ruptured several faults that expand into two different tectonic domains which are compose of the strike-slip Marlborough fault system and the compressional North Canterbury Fault Zone. Here we present the preliminary mapping results of the distribution of landslides triggered by the earthquake. An extensive landslide interpretation was carried out using sets of optical high resolution satellite images (e.g. Sentinel-2 and Göktürk-2) for both the pre- and post-earthquake situation. The landslides were identified and mapped as polygons using multi-temporal visual image interpretation based on satellite imagery and morphological elements of landslide diagnostic indicators. Nearly 8,500 individual landslides with different sizes and types were mapped. The distribution pattern of the mapped coseismic landslides shows that the slope failures are highly concentrated along the ruptured faults and side slopes of the structurally controlled major rivers such as Hapuku and Clarence Rivers that drain the northeastern slopes of the region. Our spatial analysis of landslide occurrences with ground acceleration, lithology, slope, topographic relief and surface deformation indicated extensive control of steep slope and high topographic relief on landslides with ground acceleration as the trigger. We show that spatial distribution of slope failures shows decreasing frequency away from the earthquake faults up to 25 km towards east, and abundance of landslides spatially coincides with the coseismic fault geometries and aftershock distributions. We conclude that combined effect of complex rupture dynamics and topography primarily control the distribution pattern of the landslides triggered by the Kaikoura Earthquake sequence.

A Supervised Learning Process to Validate Online Disease Reports for Use in Predictive Models.

PubMed

Patching, Helena M M; Hudson, Laurence M; Cooke, Warrick; Garcia, Andres J; Hay, Simon I; Roberts, Mark; Moyes, Catherine L

2015-12-01

Pathogen distribution models that predict spatial variation in disease occurrence require data from a large number of geographic locations to generate disease risk maps. Traditionally, this process has used data from public health reporting systems; however, using online reports of new infections could speed up the process dramatically. Data from both public health systems and online sources must be validated before they can be used, but no mechanisms exist to validate data from online media reports. We have developed a supervised learning process to validate geolocated disease outbreak data in a timely manner. The process uses three input features, the data source and two metrics derived from the location of each disease occurrence. The location of disease occurrence provides information on the probability of disease occurrence at that location based on environmental and socioeconomic factors and the distance within or outside the current known disease extent. The process also uses validation scores, generated by disease experts who review a subset of the data, to build a training data set. The aim of the supervised learning process is to generate validation scores that can be used as weights going into the pathogen distribution model. After analyzing the three input features and testing the performance of alternative processes, we selected a cascade of ensembles comprising logistic regressors. Parameter values for the training data subset size, number of predictors, and number of layers in the cascade were tested before the process was deployed. The final configuration was tested using data for two contrasting diseases (dengue and cholera), and 66%-79% of data points were assigned a validation score. The remaining data points are scored by the experts, and the results inform the training data set for the next set of predictors, as well as going to the pathogen distribution model. The new supervised learning process has been implemented within our live site and is being used to validate the data that our system uses to produce updated predictive disease maps on a weekly basis.

Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

2015-07-01

Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130 ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future. We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results. Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130 ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time. Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes.

A fire history derived from Pinus resinosa Ait. for the Islands of Eastern Lac La Croix, Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Johnson, Lane B; Kipfmueller, Kurt F

2016-06-01

We reconstructed fire occurrence near a fur-trade era canoe travel corridor (used ca. 1780-1802) in the Quetico-Superior region west of Lake Superior to explore the possibility of human influence on pre-fire suppression rates of fire occurrence. Our research objectives were to (1) examine the spatial and temporal patterns of fire in the study area, (2) test fires' strength of association with regional drought, and (3) assess whether reconstructed fire frequencies could be explained by observed rates of lightning fire ignition over the modern period of record. We developed a 420-year fire history for the eastern portion of Lac La Croix in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW). Seventy-one fire-scarred samples were collected from remnant Pinus resinosa Ait. (red pine) stumps and logs from thirteen distinct island and three mainland forest stands. Collectively these samples contained records of 255 individual fire scars representing 79 fire events from 1636 to 1933 (study area mean fire intervals [MFI] 3.8 yr). Reconstructed fires were spatially and temporally asynchronous and not strongly associated with regional drought (P > 0.05). When compared to the conservative, tree-ring reconstructed estimate of historical fire occurrence and modern lightning-caused fires (1929-2012), a noticeable change in the distribution and frequency of fires within the study area was evident with only two lightning-ignited island fires since 1934 in the study area. Our results suggest a high likelihood that indigenous land use contributed to surface fire ignitions within our study area and highlights the importance of examining the potential effects of past indigenous land use when determining modern approaches to fire and wilderness management in fire-adapted ecosystems.

Geospatial Predictive Modelling for Climate Mapping of Selected Severe Weather Phenomena Over Poland: A Methodological Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walawender, Ewelina; Walawender, Jakub P.; Ustrnul, Zbigniew

2017-02-01

The main purpose of the study is to introduce methods for mapping the spatial distribution of the occurrence of selected atmospheric phenomena (thunderstorms, fog, glaze and rime) over Poland from 1966 to 2010 (45 years). Limited in situ observations as well the discontinuous and location-dependent nature of these phenomena make traditional interpolation inappropriate. Spatially continuous maps were created with the use of geospatial predictive modelling techniques. For each given phenomenon, an algorithm identifying its favourable meteorological and environmental conditions was created on the basis of observations recorded at 61 weather stations in Poland. Annual frequency maps presenting the probability of a day with a thunderstorm, fog, glaze or rime were created with the use of a modelled, gridded dataset by implementing predefined algorithms. Relevant explanatory variables were derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and downscaled with the use of a Regional Climate Model. The resulting maps of favourable meteorological conditions were found to be valuable and representative on the country scale but at different correlation ( r) strength against in situ data (from r = 0.84 for thunderstorms to r = 0.15 for fog). A weak correlation between gridded estimates of fog occurrence and observations data indicated the very local nature of this phenomenon. For this reason, additional environmental predictors of fog occurrence were also examined. Topographic parameters derived from the SRTM elevation model and reclassified CORINE Land Cover data were used as the external, explanatory variables for the multiple linear regression kriging used to obtain the final map. The regression model explained 89 % of annual frequency of fog variability in the study area. Regression residuals were interpolated via simple kriging.

Analysis of the effects of geological and geomorphological factors on earthquake triggered landslides using artificial neural networks (ANN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawabata, D.; Bandibas, J.

2007-12-01

The occurrence of landslide is the result of the interaction of complex and diverse environmental factors. The geomorphic and geologic features, rock types and vegetative cover are important base factors of landslide occurrence. However, determining the relationship between these factors and landslide occurrence is very difficult using conventional mathematical analysis. The use of an advanced computing technique for this kind of analysis is very important. Artificial neural network (ANN) has recently been included in the list of analytical tools for a wide range of applications in the natural sciences research fields. One of the advantages of using ANN for pattern recognition is that it can handle data at any measurement scale ranging from nominal, ordinal to linear and ratio, and any form of data distribution (Wang et al., 1995). In addition, it can easily handle qualitative variables making it widely used in integrated analysis of spatial data from multiple sources for predicting and classification. This study focuses on the definition of the relationship between geological factors and landslide occurrence using artificial neural networks. The study also focuses on the effect of the DTMs (e.g. ASTER DTM, ALSM, digitized from paper map and digital photogrammetric measurement data). The main aim of the study is to generate landslide susceptibility index map using the defined relationship using ANN. Landslide data in the Chuetsu region were used in this research. The 2004 earthquake triggered many landslides in the region. The initial results of the study showed that ANN is more accurate in defining the relationship between geological and geomorphological factors and landslide occurrence. It also determined the best combination of geological and geomorphological factors that is directly related to landslide occurrence.

Preattentive representation of feature conjunctions for concurrent spatially distributed auditory objects.

PubMed

Takegata, Rika; Brattico, Elvira; Tervaniemi, Mari; Varyagina, Olga; Näätänen, Risto; Winkler, István

2005-09-01

The role of attention in conjoining features of an object has been a topic of much debate. Studies using the mismatch negativity (MMN), an index of detecting acoustic deviance, suggested that the conjunctions of auditory features are preattentively represented in the brain. These studies, however, used sequentially presented sounds and thus are not directly comparable with visual studies of feature integration. Therefore, the current study presented an array of spatially distributed sounds to determine whether the auditory features of concurrent sounds are correctly conjoined without focal attention directed to the sounds. Two types of sounds differing from each other in timbre and pitch were repeatedly presented together while subjects were engaged in a visual n-back working-memory task and ignored the sounds. Occasional reversals of the frequent pitch-timbre combinations elicited MMNs of a very similar amplitude and latency irrespective of the task load. This result suggested preattentive integration of auditory features. However, performance in a subsequent target-search task with the same stimuli indicated the occurrence of illusory conjunctions. The discrepancy between the results obtained with and without focal attention suggests that illusory conjunctions may occur during voluntary access to the preattentively encoded object representations.

Brominated flame retardants in mangrove sediments of the Pearl River Estuary, South China: spatial distribution, temporal trend and mass inventory.

PubMed

Zhang, Zai-Wang; Sun, Yu-Xin; Sun, Kai-Feng; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Yu, Shen; Zheng, Tian-Ling; Luo, Xiao-Jun; Tian, Yun; Hu, Yong-Xia; Diao, Zeng-Hui; Mai, Bi-Xian

2015-03-01

Sediments were collected from three mangrove wetlands in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) of South China to investigate spatial and temporal distributions of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) and 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE). Concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove sediments of the PRE ranged from 1.25-206, 0.364-34.9, and not detected-0.794 ng g(-1) dry weight, respectively. The highest concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE were found at the mangrove wetland from Shenzhen, followed by Zhuhai and Guangzhou, showing the dependence on the proximity to urban areas. PBDEs were the predominant brominated flame retardants (BFRs) in mangrove sediments. The concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in sediment cores showed an increasing trend from the bottom to top layers, reflecting the increasing usage of these BFRs. The inventories of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove sediments were 1962, 245, and 4.10 ng cm(-2), respectively. This is the first study to report the occurrence of DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and Vertical Distribution of Dechlorane Plus in Mangrove Sediments of the Pearl River Estuary, South China.

PubMed

Sun, Yu-Xin; Zhang, Zai-Wang; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Hao, Qin-Wei; Hu, Yong-Xia; Zheng, Xiao-Bo; Luo, Xiao-Jun; Diao, Zeng-Hui; Mai, Bi-Xian

2016-10-01

Thirty surface sediments and three sediment cores were collected from mangrove wetlands in the Pearl River Estuary of South China to investigate the spatial and vertical distribution of Dechlorane Plus (DP). DP concentrations in the mangrove surface sediments ranged from 0.0130 to 1.504 ng/g dry weight (dw). DP concentrations in sediments from Shenzhen were significantly greater than those from Guangzhou and Zhuhai. Anti-Cl11-DP, the dechlorinated product of anti-DP, was also detected in the mangrove sediments with concentrations ranged from not detected to 0.0198 ng/g dw. Significant positive relationship between anti-Cl11-DP and anti-DP levels was observed in the mangrove sediments, suggesting that photo and/or microbial degradation of anti-DP might occur in the sediments. The f anti values in the mangrove sediments were close to those in the technical DP products, suggesting that stereoselective enrichment of anti-DP may not exist in the mangrove sediments. DP concentrations in the mangrove sediment cores generally showed an increasing trend from the bottom to top layers. This is the first study to report the occurrence of DP and its degradation product in the mangrove wetlands.

On the spatial distribution of small heavy particles in homogeneous shear turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolai, C.; Jacob, B.; Piva, R.

2013-08-01

We report on a novel experiment aimed at investigating the effects induced by a large-scale velocity gradient on the turbulent transport of small heavy particles. To this purpose, a homogeneous shear flow at Reλ = 540 and shear parameter S* = 4.5 is set-up and laden with glass spheres whose size d is comparable with the Kolmogorov lengthscale η of the flow (d/η ≈ 1). The particle Stokes number is approximately 0.3. The analysis of the instantaneous particle fields by means of Voronoï diagrams confirms the occurrence of intense turbulent clustering at small scales, as observed in homogeneous isotropic flows. It also indicates that the anisotropy of the velocity fluctuations induces a preferential orientation of the particle clusters. In order to characterize the fine-scale features of the dispersed phase, spatial correlations of the particle field are employed in conjunction with statistical tools recently developed for anisotropic turbulence. The scale-by-scale analysis of the particle field clarifies that isotropy of the particle distribution is tendentially recovered at small separations, even though the signatures of the mean shear persist down to smaller scales as compared to the fluid velocity field.

In situ spectroscopic study of the plastic deformation of amorphous silicon under nonhydrostatic conditions induced by indentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerbig, Yvonne B.; Michaels, C. A.; Bradby, Jodie E.

Indentation-induced plastic deformation of amorphous silicon (a-Si) thin films was studied by in situ Raman imaging of the deformed contact region of an indented sample, employing a Raman spectroscopy-enhanced instrumented indentation technique (IIT). The occurrence and evolving spatial distribution of changes in the a-Si structure caused by processes, such as polyamorphization and crystallization, induced by indentation loading were observed. Furthermore, the obtained experimental results are linked with previously published work on the plastic deformation of a-Si under hydrostatic compression and shear deformation to establish a model for the deformation behavior of a-Si under indentation loading.

Contaminants and drinking-water sources in 2001; recent findings of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, G.G.; Focazio, M.J.

2000-01-01

As the Nation's principal earth-science agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies numerous issues related to contamination of drinking-water sources. The work includes monitoring to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of contaminants; research to determine sources, transport, transformations, and fate of contaminants, and assessments of vulnerability. Much of the work is conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local governments, to help provide a scientific basis for resource management and regulation. Examples of recent results are presented for two broad categories of drinking-water projects: occurrence studies, and source-water assessments.

In situ spectroscopic study of the plastic deformation of amorphous silicon under nonhydrostatic conditions induced by indentation

DOE PAGES

Gerbig, Yvonne B.; Michaels, C. A.; Bradby, Jodie E.; ...

2015-12-17

Indentation-induced plastic deformation of amorphous silicon (a-Si) thin films was studied by in situ Raman imaging of the deformed contact region of an indented sample, employing a Raman spectroscopy-enhanced instrumented indentation technique (IIT). The occurrence and evolving spatial distribution of changes in the a-Si structure caused by processes, such as polyamorphization and crystallization, induced by indentation loading were observed. Furthermore, the obtained experimental results are linked with previously published work on the plastic deformation of a-Si under hydrostatic compression and shear deformation to establish a model for the deformation behavior of a-Si under indentation loading.

Forest Fire Management: A Comprehensive And Operational Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabrizi, Roberto; Perez, Bruno; Gomez, Antonio

2013-12-01

Remote sensing plays an important role in obtaining rapid and complete information on the occurrence and evolution in space and time of forest fires. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of fire events through Earth Observation data for early warning, crisis monitoring and post-event damage assessment or a synthesis of the fire event, both in a wide spatial range (local to regional) and temporal scale (short to long term). The fire products are stored and distributed by means of a WebGIS and a Geoportal with additional auxiliary geospatial data. These products allow fire managers to perform analysis and decision making in a more comprehensive manner.

Spatial disaggregation of tick occurrence and ecology at a local scale as a preliminary step for spatial surveillance of tick-borne diseases: general framework and health implications in Belgium

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The incidence of tick-borne diseases is increasing in Europe. Sub national information on tick distribution, ecology and vector status is often lacking. However, precise location of infection risk can lead to better targeted prevention measures, surveillance and control. Methods In this context, the current paper compiled geolocated tick occurrences in Belgium, a country where tick-borne disease has received little attention, in order to highlight the potential value of spatial approaches and draw some recommendations for future research priorities. Results Mapping of 89,289 ticks over 654 sites revealed that ticks such as Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes hexagonus are largely present while Dermacentor reticulatus has a patchy distribution. Suspected hot spots of tick diversity might favor pathogen exchanges and suspected hot spots of I. ricinus abundance might increase human-vector contact locally. This underlines the necessity to map pathogens and ticks in detail. While I. ricinus is the main vector, I. hexagonus is a vector and reservoir of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., which is active the whole year and is also found in urban settings. This and other nidiculous species bite humans less frequently, but seem to harbour pathogens. Their role in maintaining a pathogenic cycle within the wildlife merits investigation as they might facilitate transmission to humans if co-occurring with I. ricinus. Many micro-organisms are found abroad in tick species present in Belgium. Most have not been recorded locally but have not been searched for. Some are transmitted directly at the time of the bite, suggesting promotion of tick avoidance additionally to tick removal. Conclusion This countrywide approach to tick-borne diseases has helped delineate recommendations for future research priorities necessary to design public health policies aimed at spatially integrating the major components of the ecological cycle of tick-borne diseases. A systematic survey of tick species and associated pathogens is called for in Europe, as well as better characterisation of species interaction in the ecology of tick-borne diseases, those being all tick species, pathogens, hosts and other species which might play a role in tick-borne diseases complex ecosystems. PMID:23800283

Unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, I.J.; Chandler, R.B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientic questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mecha- nisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unied modeling in- terface. The R package unmarked provides such a unied modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model tting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka States of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhorde, Amit G.; Korade, Mahendra S.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

2017-10-01

Earth surface temperatures are changing worldwide together with the changes in the extreme temperatures. The present study investigates trends and variations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and their effects on seasonal fluctuations at different climatological stations of Maharashtra and Karnataka states of India. Trend analysis was performed on annual and seasonal mean maximum temperature (TMAX) and mean minimum temperature (TMIN) for the period 1969 to 2006. During the last 38 years, an increase in annual TMAX and TMIN has occurred. At most of the locations, the increase in TMAX was faster than the TMIN, resulting in an increase in diurnal temperature range. At the same time, annual mean temperature (TM) showed a significant increase over the study area. Percentiles were used to identify extreme temperature indices. An increase in occurrence of warm extremes was observed at southern locations, and cold extremes increased over the central and northeastern part of the study area. Occurrences of cold wave conditions have decreased rapidly compared to heat wave conditions.

Global distribution of neutral wind shear associated with sporadic E layers derived from GAIA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinagawa, H.; Miyoshi, Y.; Jin, H.; Fujiwara, H.

2017-04-01

There have been a number of papers reporting that the statistical occurrence rate of the sporadic E (Es) layer depends not only on the local time and season but also on the geographical location, implying that geographical and seasonal dependence in vertical neutral wind shear is one of the factors responsible for the geographical and seasonal dependence in Es layer occurrences rate. To study the role of neutral wind shear in the global distribution of the Es layer occurrence rate, we employ a self-consistent atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model called GAIA (Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy), which incorporates meteorological reanalysis data in the lower atmosphere. The average distribution of neutral wind shear in the lower thermosphere is derived for the June-August and December-February periods, and the global distribution of vertical ion convergence is obtained to estimate the Es layer occurrence rate. It is found that the local and seasonal dependence of neutral wind shear is an important factor in determining the dependence of the Es layer occurrence rate on geographical distribution and seasonal variation. However, there are uncertainties in the simulated vertical neutral wind shears, which have larger scales than the observed wind shear scales. Furthermore, other processes such as localization of magnetic field distribution, background metallic ion distribution, ionospheric electric fields, and chemical processes of metallic ions are also likely to make an important contribution to geographical distribution and seasonal variation of the Es occurrence rate.

Spatial analysis to identify high risk areas for traffic crashes resulting in death of pedestrians in Tehran

PubMed Central

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Zeini, Salahdien

2016-01-01

Background: More than 20% of deaths from traffic crashes are related to pedestrians. This figure in Tehran, the capital of Iran, reaches to 40%. This study aimed to determine the high-risk areas and spatially analyze the traffic crashes, causing death to pedestrians in Tehran. Methods: Mapping was used to display the distribution of the crashes. Determining the distribution pattern of crashes and the hot spots/ low-risk areas were done, using Moran’s I index and Getis-Ord G, respectively. Results: A total of 198 crashes were studied; 92 of which, (46.4%) occurred in 2013 to 2014 and other 106 cases (63.6%) occurred in 2014 to 2015. The highest and the lowest frequency of crashes was related to January (26 cases) and June (10 cases), respectively. One hundred fifty- eight cases (79.8%) of crashes occurred in Tehran highways. Moran’s index showed that the studied traffic crashes had a cluster distribution (p<0.001). Getis- Ord General G index indicated that the distribution of hot and cold spots of the studied crashes was statistically significant (p<0.001). Conclusion: The majority of traffic crashes causing death to pedestrians occurred in highways located in the main entrances and exits of Tehran. Given the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of traffic crashes related to pedestrians, identification of these factors requires more studies with casual inferences. PMID:28210615

Informing disease models with temporal and spatial contact structure among GPS-collared individuals in wild populations.

PubMed

Williams, David M; Dechen Quinn, Amy C; Porter, William F

2014-01-01

Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05-0.14), to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00-0.02), and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m-7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response.

Spatial and temporal analysis of a 17-year lightning climatology over Bangladesh with LIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewan, Ashraf; Ongee, Emmanuel T.; Rahman, Md. Masudur; Mahmood, Rezaul; Yamane, Yusuke

2017-10-01

Using NASA's TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data from 1998 to 2014, this paper presents a 17-year lightning climatology of Bangladesh, at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution. Diurnal, seasonal, monthly and annual variations in the occurrence of lightning flashes were explored. The diurnal regime of lightning is dominated by afternoon/evening events. Overall, peak lightning activity occurs in the early morning (0200 LST) and evening (1900 LST). The distribution of lightning flash counts by season over Bangladesh landmass is as follows: pre-monsoon (69.2%), monsoon (24.1%), post-monsoon (4.6%) and winter (2.1%). Flash rate density (FRD) hotspots were primarily located in the north and north-eastern parts of Bangladesh, with a maximum of 72 fl km-2 year-1. Spatially, the distribution of FRD increases from the Bay of Bengal in the south to relatively higher elevations (of the Himalayan foothills) in the north. A spatial shift in FRD hotspots occurs with change in season. For example, in monsoon season, hotspots of lightning activity move in a south-westerly direction from their pre-monsoon location (i.e. north-eastern Bangladesh) towards West Bengal in India. South and south-eastern parts of Bangladesh experience high lightning activity during post-monsoon season due to regional orographic lifting and low-pressure systems (i.e. cyclone) in the Bay of Bengal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study focused on LIS-based lightning climatology over Bangladesh. This baseline study, therefore, is an essential first step towards effective management of lightning-related hazards in Bangladesh.

Occurrence of nitrogenous and carbonaceous disinfection byproducts in drinking water distributed in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Huang, Huang; Zhu, Haihui; Gan, Wenhui; Chen, Xue; Yang, Xin

2017-12-01

A 12-month sampling program was conducted throughout a drinking water distribution system in Shenzhen and the data from 251 samples provide a comprehensive picture of the spatial and seasonal variability of 17 species disinfection by-products (DBPs) in a city with subtropical monsoon climate. The carbonaceous disinfection by-product (C-DBPs) included four trihalomethanes (THMs), three trihaloacetaldehydes (THAs) and two haloketones (HKs). Their median concentrations over the entire period were 19.9 μg/L, 3.4 μg/L and 1.4 μg/L, respectively. The nitrogenous DBPs (N-DBPs) monitored were four haloacetonitriles (HANs) and four haloacetamides (HAcAms). Their median levels were 2.0 μg/L and 1.5 μg/L, respectively. Low levels of brominated DBP species (bromine substitution factors ≤ 0.5) were observed. The BSF of each DBP class followed the trend: THMs ≈ DHAcAms > DHANs > THAs. All the DBP concentrations showed clear seasonal variations with the highest average concentrations in spring. Correlation analyses showed that the THMs and CH levels in Shenzhen drinking water could be used as statistical indicators of the levels of unregulated N-DBPs (0.4 < r < 0.7, p < 0.5). The results supplement the database of DBP occurrence in drinking water in China, and provide an important reference data set for DBP occurrence in cities with a subtropical monsoon climate around the world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Information about the spatial characteristics of high and extreme streamflow is often needed for an accurate analysis of flood risk and effective co-ordination of flood related activities, such as flood defence planning. In this study we analyse the spatial dependence of frequent floods in Switzerland across different scales. Firstly, we determine the average length of high and extreme flow events for 56 runoff time series of Swiss rivers. Secondly, a dependence measure expressing the probability that streamflow peaks are as high as peaks at a conditional site is used to describe and map the spatial extend of joint occurrence of frequent floods across Switzerland. Thirdly, we apply a cluster analysis to identify groups of sites that are likely to react similarly in terms of joint occurrence of high flow events. The results indicate that a time interval with a length of 3 days seems to be most appropriate to characterise the average length of high streamflow events across spatial scales. In the main Swiss basins, high and extreme streamflows were found to be asymptotically independent. In contrast, at the meso-scale distinct flood regions, which react similarly in terms of occurrence of frequent flood, were found. The knowledge about these regions can help to optimise flood defence planning or to estimate regional flood risk properly.

Leishmania infection and host-blood feeding preferences of phlebotomine sandflies and canine leishmaniasis in an endemic European area, the Algarve Region in Portugal

PubMed Central

Maia, Carla; Dionísio, Lídia; Afonso, Maria Odete; Neto, Luís; Cristóvão, José Manuel; Campino, Lenea

2013-01-01

The Algarve Region (AR) in southern Portugal, which is an international tourist destination, has been considered an endemic region of zoonotic leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum since the 1980s. In the present study, phlebotomine and canine surveys were conducted to identify sandfly blood meal sources and to update the occurrence of Leishmania infection in vectors and dogs. Four sandfly species were captured: Phlebotomus perniciosus, Phlebotomus ariasi, Phlebotomus sergenti and Sergentomyia minuta. In one P. perniciosus female, L. infantum DNA was detected. Blood meal tests showed that this species had no host preferences and was an opportunistic feeder. An overall canine leishmaniasis (CanL) seroprevalence of 16.06% was found; the seroprevalence was 3.88% in dogs housed in kennels and 40.63% in dogs that attended veterinary clinics. The simultaneous occurrence of dogs and P. perniciosus infected with L. infantum in the AR indicates that the region continues to be an endemic area for CanL. Our results reinforce the need for the systematic spatial distribution of phlebotomine populations and their Leishmania infection rates and the need to simultaneously perform pathogen monitoring in both invertebrate and vertebrate hosts to investigate the transmission, distribution and spreading of Leishmania infection. PMID:23827997

Occurrence, source analysis and risk assessment of androgens, glucocorticoids and progestagens in the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea.

PubMed

Liu, Shan; Chen, Hui; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Liu, Shuang-Shuang; Yue, Wei-Zhong; Yu, Shen; Sun, Kai-Feng; Cheng, Hefa; Ying, Guang-Guo; Xu, Xiang-Rong

2015-12-01

The occurrence and spatial distribution of 40 steroids in the environmental matrices of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea, were investigated by rapid resolution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (RRLC-MS/MS). Seventeen, 14 and 11 of 40 steroids were detected with the concentrations ranging from 0.04 (testosterone) to 40.00 ng/L (prednisolone), 1.33 (4-hydroxy-androst-4-ene-17-dione) to 1855 ng/L (androsta-1,4-diene-3,17-dione) and <0.19 (androsta-1,4-diene-3,17-dione) to 2.37 ng/g (progesterone) in the seawater, the municipal sewage discharged effluent and the sediment samples, respectively. The concentrations and risk quotients (RQs) of the steroids detected in the water samples decreased in the order of municipal sewage discharge site>wharves~aquaculture zones~tourism areas>offshore areas. The distribution of steroids in the marine environment was significantly correlated with the levels of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N). Source analysis indicated that untreated municipal sewage was the main source of steroids in the marine environment. Furthermore, progesterone was found to be a reliable chemical indicator to surrogate different steroids in both the water and sediment phases based on the correlation analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The local environment determines the assembly of root endophytic fungi at a continental scale.

PubMed

Glynou, Kyriaki; Ali, Tahir; Buch, Ann-Katrin; Haghi Kia, Sevda; Ploch, Sebastian; Xia, Xiaojuan; Çelik, Ali; Thines, Marco; Maciá-Vicente, Jose G

2016-09-01

Root endophytic fungi are found in a great variety of plants and ecosystems, but the ecological drivers of their biogeographic distribution are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the occurrence of root endophytes in the non-mycorrhizal plant genus Microthlaspi, and the effect of environmental factors and geographic distance in structuring their communities at a continental scale. We sampled 52 plant populations across the northern Mediterranean and central Europe and used a cultivation approach to study their endophytic communities. Cultivation of roots yielded 2601 isolates, which were grouped into 296 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) by internal transcribed spacer sequencing of 1998 representative colonies. Climatic and spatial factors were the best descriptors of the structure of endophytic communities, outweighing soil characteristics, host genotype and geographical distance. OTU richness was negatively affected by precipitation, and the composition of communities followed latitudinal gradients of precipitation and temperature. Only six widespread OTUs belonging to the orders Pleosporales, Hypocreales and Helotiales represented about 50% of all isolates. Assessments of their individual distribution revealed particular ecological preferences or a cosmopolitan occurrence. Our findings support a strong influence of the local environment in determining root endophytic communities, and show a different niche occupancy by individual endophytes. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and temporal distribution of the Asian fish tapeworm Bothriocephalus acheilognathi (Cestoda: Bothriocephalidea) in the Rio Grande (Río Bravo del Norte).

PubMed

Bean, Megan G; Bonner, Timothy H

2010-09-01

Recent collections of the Asian fish tapeworm Bothriocephalus acheilognathi in the Rio Grande have raised concern about the potential impacts on Rio Grande endemic and imperiled fishes. The objectives of this study were to determine distribution and definitive hosts of the Asian fish tapeworm within the Rio Grande drainage and to quantify occurrences and abundances. In total, 1,992 fish spanning 11 families were collected and examined for Asian fish tapeworms in the Rio Grande and the Pecos and Devils rivers. The parasite was collected from red shiners Cyprinella lutrensis, Tamaulipas shiners Notropis braytoni, sand shiners N. stramineus, river carpsuckers Carpiodes carpio, plains killifish Fundulus zebrinus, western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis, blue suckers Cycleptus elongatus, blacktail shiners Cyprinella venusta, proserpine shiners Cyprinella proserpina, and Manantial roundnose minnow Dionda argentosa, with the latter four species being new host records. Monthly collections of red shiners from Big Bend National Park exhibited prevalence levels above 15% in January-March and December and below 10% during April-June and October. With over 50% of the Rio Grande icthyofauna in Texas considered imperiled, the occurrence and pathological effects of the Asian fish tapeworm in combination with reduced water quantity and quality and increased habitat fragmentation are of concern for these taxa.

Spatial distribution of centromeres and telomeres at interphase varies among Brachypodium species

PubMed Central

Idziak, Dominika; Robaszkiewicz, Ewa; Hasterok, Robert

2015-01-01

In this study the 3-D distribution of centromeres and telomeres was analysed in the interphase nuclei of three Brachypodium species, i.e. B. distachyon (2n=10), B. stacei (2n=20) and B. hybridum (2n=30), which is presumably a hybrid between the first two species. Using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with centromeric and telomeric DNA probes, it was observed that the majority of B. distachyon nuclei in the root tip cells displayed the Rabl configuration while both B. stacei and B. hybridum mostly lacked the centromere–telomere polarization. In addition, differentiated leaf cells of B. distachyon did not display the Rabl pattern. In order to analyse the possible connection between the occurrence of the Rabl pattern and the phase of cell cycle or DNA content, FISH was combined with digital image cytometry. The results revealed that the frequency of nuclei with the Rabl configuration in the root tip nuclei was positively correlated with an increase in DNA content, which resulted from DNA replication. Also, the analysis of the influence of the nuclear shape on the nuclear architecture indicated that an increasing elongation of the nuclei negatively affected the occurrence of the Rabl pattern. Some possible explanations of these phenomena are discussed. PMID:26208647

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Earthquake Occurrence in Bangladesh and Surrounding Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hussaini, T. M.; Al-Noman, M.

2011-12-01

The collision of the northward moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising Bangladesh and neighbouring India, Nepal and Myanmar. Historical records indicate that Bangladesh has been affected by five major earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 (Richter scale) during 1869 to 1930. This paper presents some statistical observations of earthquake occurrence in fulfilment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment of this region. An up to date catalogue covering earthquake information in the region bounded within 17°-30°N and 84°-97°E for the period of historical period to 2010 is derived from various reputed international sources including ISC, IRIS, Indian sources and available publications. Careful scrutiny is done to remove duplicate or uncertain earthquake events. Earthquake magnitudes in the range of 1.8 to 8.1 have been obtained and relationships between different magnitude scales have been studied. Aftershocks are removed from the catalogue using magnitude dependent space window and time window. The main shock data are then analyzed to obtain completeness period for different magnitudes evaluating their temporal homogeneity. Spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, magnitude-depth histograms and other statistical analysis are performed to understand the distribution of seismic activity in this region.

Does Encope emarginata (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) affect spatial variation patterns of estuarine subtidal meiofauna and microphytobenthos?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brustolin, Marco C.; Thomas, Micheli C.; Mafra, Luiz L.; Lana, Paulo da Cunha

2014-08-01

Foraging macrofauna, such as the sand dollar Encope emarginata, can modify sediment properties and affect spatial distribution patterns of microphytobenthos and meiobenthos at different spatial scales. We adopted a spatial hierarchical approach composed of five spatial levels (km, 100 s m, 10 s m, 1 s m and cm) to describe variation patterns of microphytobenthos, meiobenthos and sediment variables in shallow subtidal regions in the subtropical Paranaguá Bay (Southern Brazil) with live E. emarginata (LE), dead E. emarginata (only skeletons - (DE), and no E. emarginata (WE). The overall structure of microphytobenthos and meiofauna was always less variable at WE and much of variation at the scale of 100 s m was related to variability within LE and DE, due to foraging activities or to the presence of shell hashes. Likewise, increased variability in chlorophyll-a and phaeopigment contents was observed among locations within LE, although textural parameters of sediment varied mainly at smaller scales. Variations within LE were related to changes on the amount and quality of food as a function of sediment heterogeneity induced by the foraging behavior of sand dollars. We provide strong evidence that top-down effects related to the occurrence of E. emarginata act in synergy with bottom-up structuring related to hydrodynamic processes in determining overall benthic spatial variability. Conversely, species richness is mainly influenced by environmental heterogeneity at small spatial scales (centimeters to meters), which creates a mosaic of microhabitats.

Geoelectrical characterisation of basement aquifers: the case of Iberekodo, southwestern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aizebeokhai, Ahzegbobor P.; Oyeyemi, Kehinde D.

2018-03-01

Basement aquifers, which occur within the weathered and fractured zones of crystalline bedrocks, are important groundwater resources in tropical and subtropical regions. The development of basement aquifers is complex owing to their high spatial variability. Geophysical techniques are used to obtain information about the hydrologic characteristics of the weathered and fractured zones of the crystalline basement rocks, which relates to the occurrence of groundwater in the zones. The spatial distributions of these hydrologic characteristics are then used to map the spatial variability of the basement aquifers. Thus, knowledge of the spatial variability of basement aquifers is useful in siting wells and boreholes for optimal and perennial yield. Geoelectrical resistivity is one of the most widely used geophysical methods for assessing the spatial variability of the weathered and fractured zones in groundwater exploration efforts in basement complex terrains. The presented study focuses on combining vertical electrical sounding with two-dimensional (2D) geoelectrical resistivity imaging to characterise the weathered and fractured zones in a crystalline basement complex terrain in southwestern Nigeria. The basement aquifer was delineated, and the nature, extent and spatial variability of the delineated basement aquifer were assessed based on the spatial variability of the weathered and fractured zones. The study shows that a multiple-gradient array for 2D resistivity imaging is sensitive to vertical and near-surface stratigraphic features, which have hydrological implications. The integration of resistivity sounding with 2D geoelectrical resistivity imaging is efficient and enhances near-surface characterisation in basement complex terrain.

Use of feature extraction techniques for the texture and context information in ERTS imagery: Spectral and textural processing of ERTS imagery. [classification of Kansas land use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haralick, R. H. (Principal Investigator); Bosley, R. J.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A procedure was developed to extract cross-band textural features from ERTS MSS imagery. Evolving from a single image texture extraction procedure which uses spatial dependence matrices to measure relative co-occurrence of nearest neighbor grey tones, the cross-band texture procedure uses the distribution of neighboring grey tone N-tuple differences to measure the spatial interrelationships, or co-occurrences, of the grey tone N-tuples present in a texture pattern. In both procedures, texture is characterized in such a way as to be invariant under linear grey tone transformations. However, the cross-band procedure complements the single image procedure by extracting texture information and spectral information contained in ERTS multi-images. Classification experiments show that when used alone, without spectral processing, the cross-band texture procedure extracts more information than the single image texture analysis. Results show an improvement in average correct classification from 86.2% to 88.8% for ERTS image no. 1021-16333 with the cross-band texture procedure. However, when used together with spectral features, the single image texture plus spectral features perform better than the cross-band texture plus spectral features, with an average correct classification of 93.8% and 91.6%, respectively.

Keystone Species, Forest and Landscape: A Model to Select Protected Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lins, Daniela Barbosa da Silva; Gardon, Fernando Ravanini; Meyer, João Frederico da Costa Azevedo; Santos, Rozely Ferreira dos

2017-06-01

The selection of forest fragments for conservation is usually based on spatial parameters as forest size and canopy integrity. This strategy assumes that chosen fragments present high conservation status, ensuring biodiversity and ecological functions. We argue that a well-preserved forest fragment that remains connected by the landscape structure, does not necessarily hold attributes that ensure the presence of keystone species. We also discuss that the presence of keystone species does not always mean that it has the best conditions for its occurrence and maintenance. We developed a model to select areas in forest landscapes to be prioritized for protection based on suitability curves that unify and compare spatial indicators of three categories: forest fragment quality, landscape quality, and environmental conditions for the occurrence of a keystone species. We use a case study to compare different suitability degrees for Euterpe edulis presence, considered an important functional element in Atlantic Forest (São Paulo, Brazil) landscapes and a forest resource for local people. The results show that the identification of medium or advanced stage fragments as singular indicator of forest quality does not guarantee the existence or maintenance of this keystone species. Even in some well-preserved forest fragments, connected to others and with palm presence, the reverse J-shaped distribution of the population size structure is not sustained and these forests continue to be threatened due to human disturbances.

Geomagnetic and solar activity dependence of ionospheric upflowing O+: FAST observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, K.; Jiang, Y.; Chen, K. W.; Huang, L. F.

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the dependence of the occurrence frequency of ionospheric upflowing oxygen (O+) ions on the sunspot cycle and geomagnetic activity. We examine the upflows response to the geomagnetic disturbances as well as the influence of the ion energy factor in controlling the magnitude of the occurrence frequency and the net energy flux. We discuss the spatial distribution of the upflow occurrence frequency and construct a regression model as a function of the magnetic latitude. The results show an overall enhancement of the upflow occurrence frequency during magnetically disturbed periods and indicate that the high-occurrence area spreads out from the source regions during magnetically quiet periods. The high-occurrence areas are located at 70° magnetic latitude (mLat) in the dayside auroral oval zone and between 76-80° mLat in the dayside polar cusp region. In the nightside auroral oval zone, these areas are near 60° mLat, penetrating further equatorward to 55° mLat during magnetically disturbed periods. High energy (≥1 keV) upflowing ions are common in the nightside auroral oval zone while low energy (<1 keV) upflowing ions are found escaping from the high latitude dayside cusp region. A Gaussian function is shown to be a good fit to the occurrence frequency over the magnetic latitude. For high energy upflowing O+ ions, the occurrence frequency exhibits a single peak located at about 60° mLat in the nightside auroral oval zone while for low energy upflowing O+ ions, it exhibits two peaks, one near 60° mLat in the auroral oval zone and the other near 78° mLat in the cusp region. We study the solar activity dependence by analyzing the relationship between the upflow occurrence frequency and the sunspot number (RZ). The statistical result shows that the frequency decreases with declining solar activity level, from ˜30 % at solar maximum to ˜5 % at solar minimum. In addition, the correlation coefficient between the occurrence frequency and RZ is 0.9.

GIS-based environmental analysis of fox and canine lungworm distribution: an epidemiological study of Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis in red foxes from Slovakia.

PubMed

Čabanová, Viktória; Miterpáková, Martina; Druga, Michal; Hurníková, Zuzana; Valentová, Daniela

2018-02-01

Over a period of intervening years, the distribution of two canine cardiopulmonary metastrongylid nematodes, Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis, has been recognised in Central Europe. Here, we report the first epidemiological research conducted in red foxes from Slovakia and the potential influence of selected environmental variables on the parasites' occurrence, quantified by logistic regression. The environmental models revealed that distribution of C. vulpis is not significantly influenced by any environmental variables, and the parasite is present in the whole area under study. Models for A. vasorum revealed some weak influence of environmental variables, as it tends to occur in drier areas with lower proportion of forest. Moreover, A. vasorum shows a typical spatial clustering and occurs in endemic foci identified mainly in the eastern part of Slovakia. A cluster of A. vasorum infection foci was also found in the north-eastern region, where the average winter air temperature regularly falls below - 10 °C.

Textural content in 3T MR: an image-based marker for Alzheimer's disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharath Kumar, S. V.; Mullick, Rakesh; Patil, Uday

2005-04-01

In this paper, we propose a study, which investigates the first-order and second-order distributions of T2 images from a magnetic resonance (MR) scan for an age-matched data set of 24 Alzheimer's disease and 17 normal patients. The study is motivated by the desire to analyze the brain iron uptake in the hippocampus of Alzheimer's patients, which is captured by low T2 values. Since, excess iron deposition occurs locally in certain regions of the brain, we are motivated to investigate the spatial distribution of T2, which is captured by higher-order statistics. Based on the first-order and second-order distributions (involving gray level co-occurrence matrix) of T2, we show that the second-order statistics provide features with sensitivity >90% (at 80% specificity), which in turn capture the textural content in T2 data. Hence, we argue that different texture characteristics of T2 in the hippocampus for Alzheimer's and normal patients could be used as an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease.

Risk Distribution of Human Infections with Avian Influenza H7N9 and H5N1 virus in China

PubMed Central

Li, Xin-Lou; Yang, Yang; Sun, Ye; Chen, Wan-Jun; Sun, Ruo-Xi; Liu, Kun; Ma, Mai-Juan; Liang, Song; Yao, Hong-Wu; Gray, Gregory C.; Fang, Li-Qun; Cao, Wu-Chun

2015-01-01

It has been documented that the epidemiological characteristics of human infections with H7N9 differ significantly between H5N1. However, potential factors that may explain the different spatial distributions remain unexplored. We use boosted regression tree (BRT) models to explore the association of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological variables with the occurrence of human cases of H7N9 and H5N1, and map the probabilities of occurrence of human cases. Live poultry markets, density of human, coverage of built-up land, relative humidity and precipitation were significant predictors for both. In addition, density of poultry, coverage of shrub and temperature played important roles for human H7N9 infection, whereas human H5N1 infection was associated with coverage of forest and water body. Based on the risks and distribution of ecological characteristics which may facilitate the circulation of the two viruses, we found Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, along with a few spots on the southeast coastline, to be the high risk areas for H7N9 and H5N1. Additional, H5N1 risk spots were identified in eastern Sichuan and southern Yunnan Provinces. Surveillance of the two viruses needs to be enhanced in these high risk areas to reduce the risk of future epidemics of avian influenza in China. PMID:26691585

Diversity of root-knot nematodes in Moroccan olive nurseries and orchards: does Meloidogyne javanica disperse according to invasion processes?

PubMed

Aït Hamza, Mohamed; Ali, Nadine; Tavoillot, Johannes; Fossati-Gaschignard, Odile; Boubaker, Hassan; El Mousadik, Abdelhamid; Mateille, Thierry

2017-12-19

Root-knot nematodes (RKN) are major pest of olive tree (Olea europaea ssp. europaea), especially in nurseries and high-density orchards. Soil samples were collected from main olive growing areas of Morocco, to characterize Meloidogyne species and to discuss the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors in their spatial distribution. RKN were found in 159 soil samples out of 305 from nurseries (52.1% occurrence) and in 11 out of 49 soil samples from orchards (23.2% occurrence). Biochemical and molecular characterisation (PAGE esterase and SCAR) revealed the dominance of M. javanica both in nurseries and orchards with minor presence of M. incognita only in nurseries, and M. arenaria in only one nursery. RKN were distributed on aggregated basis. Frequent presence of M. javanica in orchards might have come from nurseries. In contrast, the detection of M. incognita in nurseries alone suggests that this species could not reproduce in orchards because of either the competition with other plant-parasitic nematodes or unfit local habitats. The impact of environmental variables (climate, habitat origin and physicochemical characteristics of the substrates) on the distribution of Meloidogyne species is also discussed. Olive nurseries in Morocco are not able to guarantee the safety of rooted plants. As a result, olive production systems are exposed to strong RKN invasion risks. Consequently, the use of healthy substrates in nurseries may prevent plant-parasitic nematode induction in orchards.

Large-scale geographic variation in distribution and abundance of Australian deep-water kelp forests.

PubMed

Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Williams, Stefan B; Babcock, Russell C; Barrett, Neville S; Johnson, Craig R; Jordan, Alan; Kendrick, Gary A; Pizarro, Oscar R; Smale, Dan A; Steinberg, Peter D

2015-01-01

Despite the significance of marine habitat-forming organisms, little is known about their large-scale distribution and abundance in deeper waters, where they are difficult to access. Such information is necessary to develop sound conservation and management strategies. Kelps are main habitat-formers in temperate reefs worldwide; however, these habitats are highly sensitive to environmental change. The kelp Ecklonia radiate is the major habitat-forming organism on subtidal reefs in temperate Australia. Here, we provide large-scale ecological data encompassing the latitudinal distribution along the continent of these kelp forests, which is a necessary first step towards quantitative inferences about the effects of climatic change and other stressors on these valuable habitats. We used the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) facility of Australia's Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) to survey 157,000 m2 of seabed, of which ca 13,000 m2 were used to quantify kelp covers at multiple spatial scales (10-100 m to 100-1,000 km) and depths (15-60 m) across several regions ca 2-6° latitude apart along the East and West coast of Australia. We investigated the large-scale geographic variation in distribution and abundance of deep-water kelp (>15 m depth) and their relationships with physical variables. Kelp cover generally increased with latitude despite great variability at smaller spatial scales. Maximum depth of kelp occurrence was 40-50 m. Kelp latitudinal distribution along the continent was most strongly related to water temperature and substratum availability. This extensive survey data, coupled with ongoing AUV missions, will allow for the detection of long-term shifts in the distribution and abundance of habitat-forming kelp and the organisms they support on a continental scale, and provide information necessary for successful implementation and management of conservation reserves.

Distribution of sea snakes in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park: observations from 10 yrs of baited remote underwater video station (BRUVS) sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udyawer, Vinay; Cappo, Mike; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.; Heupel, Michelle R.; Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi

2014-09-01

The distributions of three species of sea snake (olive sea snake: Aipysurus laevis, spine-bellied sea snake: Lapemis curtus, and ornate sea snake: Hydrophis ocellatus) were estimated over 14° of latitude within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) using data from baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS). A total of 2,471 deployments of BRUVS were made in a range of locations, in sites open and closed to trawl fishing. Sightings of sea snakes were analysed alongside six spatial factors [depth, relative distance across (longitude) and along (latitude) the GBRMP, proximity to land, proximity to the nearest reef, and habitat complexity] to determine the factors that most strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of sea snakes. The results showed a strong latitudinal effect on the distribution of all three sea snake species, with the highest densities and diversities occurring in central and southern GBRMP locations, while the northern Great Barrier Reef was relatively depauperate in terms of both occurrence and diversity. Shallow inshore areas were identified as key habitats for A. laevis and L. curtus, whereas deeper offshore habitats were most important for H. ocellatus. No significant difference was found in the mean number of snakes sighted per hour between sites open and closed to trawling. There was a high degree of congruence in the distribution of sea snakes estimated from the BRUVS data and results from previous trawl and underwater visual surveys, demonstrating the utility of BRUVS to estimate distribution and relative abundance in these species of sea snake at broad spatial scales in a non-extractive manner.

Mapping the environmental and biogeographic complexity of the Amazon basin using remote sensing methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streher, A. S.; Cordeiro, C. L. O.; Silva, T. S. F.

2017-12-01

Mapping environmental envelopes onto geographical space has been classically important for understanding biogeographical patterns. Knowing the biotic and abiotic limits defining these envelopes, we can better understand the requirements limiting species distributions. Most present efforts in this regard have focused on single-species distribution models, but the current breadth and accessibility of quantitative, spatially explicit environmental information can also be explored from an environment-first perspective. We thus used remote sensing to determine the occurrence of environmental discontinuities in the Amazon region and evaluated if such discontinuities may act as barriers to determine species distribution and range limits, forming clear environmental envelopes. We combined data on topography (SRTM), precipitation (CHIRPS), vegetation descriptors (PALSAR-1 backscattering, biomass, NDVI) and temperature (MODIS), using object-based image analysis and unsupervised learning to map environmental envelopes. We identified 14 environmental envelopes for the Amazon sensu latissimo region, mainly delimited by changes in vegetation, topography and precipitation. The resulting envelopes were compared to the distribution of 120 species of Trogonidae, Galbulidae, Bucconidae, Cebidae, Hylidae and Lecythidaceae, amounting to 22,649 occurrence records within the Amazonregion. We determined species prevalence in each envelope by calculating the ratio between species relative frequency per envelope and envelope relative frequency (area) in the complete map. Values closer to 1 indicate a high degree of prevalence. We found strong envelope associations (prevalence > 0.5) for 20 species (17% of analyzed taxa). Although several biogeographical and ecological factors will influence the distribution of a species, our results show that not only geographical barriers, but also modern environmental discontinuities may limit the distribution of some species., and may have also done so in the past. Our work also highlights the environmental complexity of the Amazon region, often considered as "environmentally homogeneous", and shows how environmental mapping can contribute to better understanding of the processes explaining the current assembly and distribution of Amazon biodiversity.

Micro/Nano-scale Strain Distribution Measurement from Sampling Moiré Fringes.

PubMed

Wang, Qinghua; Ri, Shien; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2017-05-23

This work describes the measurement procedure and principles of a sampling moiré technique for full-field micro/nano-scale deformation measurements. The developed technique can be performed in two ways: using the reconstructed multiplication moiré method or the spatial phase-shifting sampling moiré method. When the specimen grid pitch is around 2 pixels, 2-pixel sampling moiré fringes are generated to reconstruct a multiplication moiré pattern for a deformation measurement. Both the displacement and strain sensitivities are twice as high as in the traditional scanning moiré method in the same wide field of view. When the specimen grid pitch is around or greater than 3 pixels, multi-pixel sampling moiré fringes are generated, and a spatial phase-shifting technique is combined for a full-field deformation measurement. The strain measurement accuracy is significantly improved, and automatic batch measurement is easily achievable. Both methods can measure the two-dimensional (2D) strain distributions from a single-shot grid image without rotating the specimen or scanning lines, as in traditional moiré techniques. As examples, the 2D displacement and strain distributions, including the shear strains of two carbon fiber-reinforced plastic specimens, were measured in three-point bending tests. The proposed technique is expected to play an important role in the non-destructive quantitative evaluations of mechanical properties, crack occurrences, and residual stresses of a variety of materials.

Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Qian, Quan; Zhao, Jian; Fang, Liqun; Zhou, Hang; Zhang, Wenyi; Wei, Lan; Yang, Hong; Yin, Wenwu; Cao, Wuchun; Li, Qun

2014-07-10

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed. Based on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously. We used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague. This study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Statistical analysis of earthquakes after the 1999 MW 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake based on a modified Reasenberg-Jones model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2015-12-01

We investigated the temporal-spatial hazard of the earthquakes after the 1999 September 21 MW = 7.7 Chi-Chi shock in a continental region of Taiwan. The Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, 1994) that combines the frequency-magnitude distribution (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and time-decaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for assessing the earthquake hazard after a large shock. However, it is found that the b values in the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes in the study region dramatically decreased from background values after the Chi-Chi shock, and then gradually increased up. The observation of a time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution motivated us to propose a modified RJ model (MRJ) to assess the earthquake hazard. To see how the models perform on assessing short-term earthquake hazard, the RJ and MRJ models were separately used to sequentially forecast earthquakes in the study region. To depict the potential rupture area for future earthquakes, we further constructed relative hazard (RH) maps based on the two models. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets, 1988) finally demonstrated that the RH map based on the MRJ model was, in general, superior to the one based on the original RJ model for exploring the spatial hazard of earthquakes in a short time after the Chi-Chi shock.

Co-occurrence and seasonal and environmental distributions of the sandflies Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani in the city of Puerto Iguazú, northeastern Argentina.

PubMed

Santini, M S; Fernández, M S; Cavia, R; Salomón, O D

2018-06-01

The aim of this work was to study the distribution of Phlebotominae (Diptera: Psycodidade) abundance in time and space in an area in northeastern Argentina with vector transmission of visceral and tegumentary leishmaniasis. For this, 51 households were selected using a 'worst scenario' criterion where one light trap was set during two consecutive nights in peridomiciles in the transitions between the four seasons, and the environment was surveyed simultaneously. The relationships of phlebotomine assemblage structure and the most abundant species with seasonality and environmental variables were evaluated using a canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear mixed models, respectively. A total of 5110 individuals were captured. Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Nyssomyia whitmani (Antunes & Coutinho, 1939) were the most abundant species captured in all samplings (98.3% of the total capture). The period of highest abundance of Lu. longipalpis was early autumn, and it was distributed in the most urbanized areas. Nyssomyia whitmani occupied mainly the less urbanized areas, showing peaks of abundance in early spring and summer. Other species were captured in low numbers and showed seasonal-spatial variations similar to those of Ny. whitmani. We confirmed Leishmania spp. vector persistence throughout the year in spatial patches of high abundance even during the less favorable season. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Geospatial cross-correlation analysis of Oklahoma earthquakes and saltwater disposal volume 2011 - 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollyea, R.; Mohammadi, N.; Taylor, J. E.

2017-12-01

The annual earthquake rate in Oklahoma increased dramatically between 2009 and 2016, owing in large part to the rapid proliferation of salt water disposal wells associated with unconventional oil and gas recovery. This study presents a geospatial analysis of earthquake occurrence and SWD injection volume within a 68,420 km2 area in north-central Oklahoma between 2011 and 2016. The spatial co-variability of earthquake occurrence and SWD injection volume is analyzed for each year of the study by calculating the geographic centroid for both earthquake epicenter and volume-weighted well location. In addition, the spatial cross correlation between earthquake occurrence and SWD volume is quantified by calculating the cross semivariogram annually for a 9.6 km × 9.6 km (6 mi × 6 mi) grid over the study area. Results from these analyses suggest that the relationship between volume-weighted well centroids and earthquake centroids generally follow pressure diffusion space-time scaling, and the volume-weighted well centroid predicts the geographic earthquake centroid within a 1σ radius of gyration. The cross semivariogram calculations show that SWD injection volume and earthquake occurrence are spatially cross correlated between 2014 and 2016. These results also show that the strength of cross correlation decreased from 2015 to 2016; however, the cross correlation length scale remains unchanged at 125 km. This suggests that earthquake mitigation efforts have been moderately successful in decreasing the strength of cross correlation between SWD volume and earthquake occurrence near-field, but the far-field contribution of SWD injection volume to earthquake occurrence remains unaffected.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of harmful algal blooms in Qingdao Waters, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yongquan; Yu, Zhiming; Song, Xiuxian; Cao, Xihua

2017-03-01

Qingdao waters, including both the semi-enclosed Jiaozhou Bay (JB) and the adjacent water out of JB (OJB), have been the areas that are most frequently affected by harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the western Yellow Sea (west of 124°E). In this research, HAB occurrences in Qingdao waters from 1990 to 2009 were investigated using spatial tools in geographic information system (GIS) and are discussed in terms of their connection to temporal variation. Additionally, the effects of each HAB occurrence were further evaluated using a simple model. The calculated results were then visualized using a GIS software to indicate the effects of HABs in Qingdao waters during the entire period. As a result, the OJB was proven to be responsible for the frequent HAB occurrences in Qingdao waters after 2000, although JB was traditionally believed to be the principle source of HAB occurrences in Qingdao waters. In addition, increasing nitrogen and N/P structure imbalance were essential for increasing HAB occurrences in Qingdao waters throughout the entire period, especially for the recent HAB occurrences in the OJB. The results of this research would improve the current understanding on HAB occurrences in Qingdao waters, which would benefit HAB monitoring and the implementation of a control strategy in China as well.

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks in Tanzania; 1930 to 2007

PubMed Central

Sindato, Calvin; Karimuribo, Esron D.; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Kivaria, Fredrick; Dautu, George; Bernard, Bett; Paweska, Janusz T.

2014-01-01

Background Rift Valley fever (RVF)-like disease was first reported in Tanzania more than eight decades ago and the last large outbreak of the disease occurred in 2006–07. This study investigates the spatial and temporal pattern of RVF outbreaks in Tanzania over the past 80 years in order to guide prevention and control strategies. Materials and Methods A retrospective study was carried out based on disease reporting data from Tanzania at district or village level. The data were sourced from the Ministries responsible for livestock and human health, Tanzania Meteorological Agency and research institutions involved in RVF surveillance and diagnosis. The spatial distribution of outbreaks was mapped using ArcGIS 10. The space-time permutation model was applied to identify clusters of cases, and a multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of outbreaks in the district. Principal Findings RVF outbreaks were reported between December and June in 1930, 1947, 1957, 1960, 1963, 1968, 1977–79, 1989, 1997–98 and 2006–07 in 39.2% of the districts in Tanzania. There was statistically significant spatio-temporal clustering of outbreaks. RVF occurrence was associated with the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 6.14, CI: 1.96, 19.28), total amount of rainfall of >405.4 mm (OR = 12.36, CI: 3.06, 49.88), soil texture (clay [OR = 8.76, CI: 2.52, 30.50], and loam [OR = 8.79, CI: 2.04, 37.82]). Conclusion/Significance RVF outbreaks were found to be distributed heterogeneously and transmission dynamics appeared to vary between areas. The sequence of outbreak waves, continuously cover more parts of the country. Whenever infection has been introduced into an area, it is likely to be involved in future outbreaks. The cases were more likely to be reported from the eastern Rift Valley than from the western Rift Valley ecosystem and from areas with clay and loam rather than sandy soil texture. PMID:24586433

Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelling, S.

2017-12-01

The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

CALIPSO Satellite Lidar Identification Of Elevated Dust Over Australia Compared With Air Quality Model PM60 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Stuart A.; Vaughan, Mark; Omar, Ali; Liu, Zhaoyan; Lee, Sunhee; Hu, Youngxiang; Cope, Martin

2008-01-01

Global measurements of the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols have been recorded by the lidar on board the CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite since June 2006. Such extensive, height-resolved measurements provide a rare and valuable opportunity for developing, testing and validating various atmospheric models, including global climate, numerical weather prediction, chemical transport and air quality models. Here we report on the initial results of an investigation into the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecast System (AAQFS) model in forecasting the distribution of elevated dust over the Australian region. The model forecasts of PM60 dust distribution are compared with the CALIPSO lidar Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) data product. The VFM classifies contiguous atmospheric regions of enhanced backscatter as either cloud or aerosols. Aerosols are further classified into six subtypes. By comparing forecast PM60 concentration profiles to the spatial distribution of dust reported in the CALIPSO VFM, we can assess the model s ability to predict the occurrence and the vertical and horizontal extents of dust events within the study area.

On the distribution of species occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buzas, Martin A.; Koch, Carl F.; Culver, Stephen J.; Sohl, Norman F.

1982-01-01

The distribution of species abundance (number of individuals per species) is well documented. The distribution of species occurrence (number of localities per species), however, has received little attention. This study investigates the distribution of species occurrence for five large data sets. For modern benthic foraminifera, species occurrence is examined from the Atlantic continental margin of North America, where 875 species were recorded 10,017 times at 542 localities, the Gulf of Mexico, where 848 species were recorded 18,007 times at 426 localities, and the Caribbean, where 1,149 species were recorded 6,684 times at 268 localities. For Late Cretaceous molluscs, species occurrence is examined from the Gulf Coast where 716 species were recorded 6,236 times at 166 localities and a subset of this data consisting of 643 species recorded 3,851 times at 86 localities.Logseries and lognormal distributions were fitted to these data sets. In most instances the logseries best predicts the distribution of species occurrence. The lognormal, however, also fits the data fairly well, and, in one instance, better. The use of these distributions allows the prediction of the number of species occurring once, twice, ..., n times.Species abundance data are also available for the molluscan data sets. They indicate that the most abundant species (greatest number of individuals) usually occur most frequently. In all data sets approximately half the species occur four or less times. The probability of noting the presence of rarely occurring species is small, and, consequently, such species must be used with extreme caution in studies requiring knowledge of the distribution of species in space and time.

Coincident Occurrences of Tropical Individual Cirrus Clouds and Deep Convective Systems Derived from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Xu, Kuan-Man; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Chambers, Lin; Fan, Alice; Sun, Wenbo

2007-01-01

Measurements of cloud properties and atmospheric radiation taken between January and August 1998 by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite were used to investigate the effect of spatial and temporal scales on the coincident occurrences of tropical individual cirrus clouds (ICCs) and deep convective systems (DCSs). It is found that there is little or even negative correlation between instantaneous occurrences of ICC and DCS in small areas, in which both types of clouds cannot grow and expand simultaneously. When spatial and temporal domains are increased, ICCs become more dependent on DCSs due to the origination of many ICCs from DCSs and moisture supply from the DCS in the upper troposphere for the ICCs to grow, resulting in significant positive correlation between the two types of tropical high clouds in large spatial and long temporal scales. This result may suggest that the decrease of tropical high clouds with SST from model simulations is likely caused by restricted spatial domains and limited temporal periods. Finally, the radiative feedback due to the change in tropical high cloud area coverage with sea surface temperature appears small and about -0.14 W/sq m per degree Kelvin.

Clusters of Earthquakes In The Southern of Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posadas, A. M.; Luzón, F.; Vidal, F.

The southern part of the Iberian Peninsula forms part of the western border of Eurasia- Africa plate boundary. This area is characterized by the occurrence of earthquakes of moderate magnitude (the maximum magnitude ranging from 4.5 to 5.5). From the point of view of seismic activity, this region is the most active one in he Iberian Penin- sula. Until earlier 80, only the National Seismic Network belonging to the National Geographic Institute monitores the activity in the south of Iberian Peninsula. From 1983 to the actuality, the Andalusian Seismic Network belonging to the Andalusian Geophysics Institute and Seismic Disaster Prevention, records the microseismicity of the area. Nowadays, the earthquakes catalogue used belongs to the Andalusian Insti- tute of Geophysics and Seismic Disaster Prevention and it counts on more than 20000 events registered from 1985 to 2001. Today, after 20 years of recording seismic ac- tivity, statistics analysis of the catalogue have sense. In this paper we present a first approach to the clustering properties of the seismicity in the south of the Iberian Penin- sula. The analysis carried out starts with the study of clustering properties (temporal and spatial properties) in the Southern of Iberian Peninsula seismicity to demonstrate, by using the Fractal Dimension of the temporal earthquake distribution and the Mor- ishita Index of the spatial distribution of earthquakes, that this seismicity is charac- terized by a tendency to form earthquake clusters, both spatial and temporal clusters. As an example, five seismogenetic areas of the zone are analyzed (Adra-Berja, Agron, Alboran, Antequera and Loja). This particular study of the series find out the b param- eter from the Gutenberg-Richter's Law (which characterizes the energetic relaxation of events), the p parameter from Omori's Law (that characterizes the temporal relax- ation of aftershocks) and the Fractal Dimension of the spatial distribution of earth- quakes (to find the characteristic geometry seismogenetic zone).

Tempo-spatial analysis of Fennoscandian intraplate seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Roland; Lund, Björn

2017-04-01

Coupled spatial-temporal patterns of the occurrence of earthquakes in Fennoscandia are analysed using non-parametric methods. The occurrence of larger events is unambiguously and very strongly temporally clustered, with major implications for the assessment of seismic hazard in areas such as Fennoscandia. In addition, there is a clear pattern of geographical migration of activity. Data from the Swedish National Seismic Network and a collated international catalogue are analysed. Results show consistent patterns on different spatial and temporal scales. We are currently investigating these patterns in order to assess the statistical significance of the tempo-spatial patterns, and to what extent these may be consistent with stress transfer mechanism such as coulomb stress and pore fluid migration. Indications are that some further mechanism is necessary in order to explain the data, perhaps related to post-glacial uplift, which is up to 1cm/year.

Wildfire patterns and landscape changes in Mediterranean oak woodlands.

PubMed

Guiomar, N; Godinho, S; Fernandes, P M; Machado, R; Neves, N; Fernandes, J P

2015-12-01

Fire is infrequent in the oak woodlands of southern Portugal (montado) but large and severe fires affected these agro-forestry systems in 2003-2005. We hypothesised transition from forest to shrubland as a fire-driven process and investigated the links between fire incidence and montado change to other land cover types, particularly those related with the presence of pioneer communities (generically designed in this context as "transitions to early-successional communities"). We present a landscape-scale framework for assessing the probability of transition from montado to pioneer communities, considering three sets of explanatory variables: montado patterns in 1990 and prior changes from montado to early-successional communities (occurred between 1960 and 1990), fire patterns, and spatial factors. These three sets of factors captured 78.2% of the observed variability in the transitions from montado to pioneer vegetation. The contributions of fire patterns and spatial factors were high, respectively 60.6% and 43.4%, the influence of montado patterns and former changes in montado being lower (34.4%). The highest amount of explained variation in the occurrence of transitions from montado to early-successional communities was related to the pure effect of fire patterns (19.9%). Low spatial connectedness in montado landscape can increase vulnerability to changes, namely to pioneer vegetation, but the observed changes were mostly explained by fire characteristics and spatial factors. Among all metrics used to characterize fire patterns and extent, effective mesh size provided the best modelling results. Transitions from montado to pioneer communities are more likely in the presence of high values of the effective mesh size of total burned area. This cross-boundary metric is an indicator of the influence of large fires in the distribution of the identified transitions and, therefore, we conclude that the occurrence of large fires in montado increases its probability of transition to shrubland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) in fish collected from UK and proximate marine waters.

PubMed

Zhihua, Li; Panton, S; Marshall, Lisa; Fernandes, A; Rose, M; Smith, F; Holmes, Mel

2018-03-01

Some commonly consumed marine fish species are considered to display a higher risk of bio-accumulating organic environmental contaminants such as PBDEs. As part of a study to investigate the spatial distribution of these contaminants, data on polybrominated diphenlyethers (PBDEs) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) were collected and analysed by introducing a web-based resource which enables efficient spatial, species and concentration level representations. Furthermore, hierarchical cluster analyses permits correlations within the data to be predicted. The data provide current information on levels of PBDE and PBB occurrence, allowing identification of locations that show higher contaminant levels. 135 fish samples of various species were analysed from UK marine waters, but encompassing the waters around Norway in the North and to the Algarve in the South. PBDEs were observed in all samples with the majority of measured congeners being detected. The concentrations ranged from 0.087 μg/kg to 8.907 μg/kg whole weight (ww) for the sum of all measured PBDE congeners. PBBs occurred less frequently showing a corresponding range of <0.02 μg/kg to 0.97 μg/kg ww for the sum of seven PBB congeners. Concentrations vary depending on species and locations where landed, e.g. PBBs occurred more frequently and at higher levels in grey mullet from French waters. The high frequency of PBDE occurrence makes it prudent to continue the monitoring of these commonly consumed marine fish species. The web-based resource provides a flexible and efficient tool for assessors and policy-makers to monitor and evaluate levels within caught fish species improving evidenced-based decision processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) across a complex riverscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Jordan, Christopher E.; McNyset, Kris M.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2013-01-01

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

Detecting understory plant invasion in urban forests using LiDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Kunwar K.; Davis, Amy J.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2015-06-01

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data are increasingly used to measure structural characteristics of urban forests but are rarely used to detect the growing problem of exotic understory plant invaders. We explored the merits of using LiDAR-derived metrics alone and through integration with spectral data to detect the spatial distribution of the exotic understory plant Ligustrum sinense, a rapidly spreading invader in the urbanizing region of Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. We analyzed regional-scale L. sinense occurrence data collected over the course of three years with LiDAR-derived metrics of forest structure that were categorized into the following groups: overstory, understory, topography, and overall vegetation characteristics, and IKONOS spectral features - optical. Using random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) classifiers, we assessed the relative contributions of LiDAR and IKONOS derived variables to the detection of L. sinense. We compared the top performing models developed for a smaller, nested experimental extent using RF and LR classifiers, and used the best overall model to produce a predictive map of the spatial distribution of L. sinense across our country-wide study extent. RF classification of LiDAR-derived topography metrics produced the highest mapping accuracy estimates, outperforming IKONOS data by 17.5% and the integration of LiDAR and IKONOS data by 5.3%. The top performing model from the RF classifier produced the highest kappa of 64.8%, improving on the parsimonious LR model kappa by 31.1% with a moderate gain of 6.2% over the county extent model. Our results demonstrate the superiority of LiDAR-derived metrics over spectral data and fusion of LiDAR and spectral data for accurately mapping the spatial distribution of the forest understory invader L. sinense.

Study of the Río de la Plata turbidity front, Part 1: spatial and temporal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Framiñan, Mariana B.; Brown, Otis B.

1996-08-01

The Río de la Plata is a riverine system located on the east coast of South America at 35°S. It covers 35,000 km 2, it is 320 km long and 230 km wide at the mouth. The Río de la Plata drains the second largest basin in South America with an average discharge of 22,000 m 3 s -1. The processes associated with the interaction of the fresh river water and the saline shelf water and tidal stirring generate a turbidity front in the outer region, which is clearly defined in the satellite images as a strong gradient in reflectance and a sharp change in water color. We use a 4 yr span of NOAA-AVHRR daily images, from September 1986 to August 1990, to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of the turbidity front. Channels 1 and 2 (visible and near-infrared) are used to digitize the fronts, and channel 4 and sea surface temperature are used as complementary information for cloud detection. From a total of 2578 images, 1274 daytime images allowed us to determine 333 positions of the front. This information is used to estimate the distribution of the frontal density, a probabilistic measure of frontal occurrence. Monthly, seasonal and annual analyses were performed. The relation of the turbidity front patterns to bathymetry, tidal dynamics, river discharge and winds were investigated. A comparison between the frontal density distribution and stratification parameters is presented. The results show a high degree of variability of the frontal distribution at the northern coast of the estuary. In this region, the frontal position varies between 57°W and 54°12'W. The westernmost location occurs in the summer months, which is coincident with minimum river discharge, predominance of easterly winds and minimum occurrence of southwesterlies. The easternmost location occurs during the spring, with strong winds from the southwest. At the southern coast the modal position of the front coincides with the 5 m isobath, although great variations to this position have been observed during years of large river discharge. The fall and winter are seasons of maximum river discharge. During these periods there is a bimodal frontal distribution with maximum values of frontal density at the northern area of Bay of Samborombón and south of Montevideo, and higher variability in the center of the river.

Rhinos in the Parks: An Island-Wide Survey of the Last Wild Population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros

PubMed Central

Pusparini, Wulan; Sievert, Paul R.; Fuller, Todd K.; Randhir, Timothy O.; Andayani, Noviar

2015-01-01

In the 200 years since the Sumatran rhinoceros was first scientifically described (Fisher 1814), the range of the species has contracted from a broad region in Southeast Asia to three areas on the island of Sumatra and one in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Assessing population and spatial distribution of this very rare species is challenging because of their elusiveness and very low population number. Using an occupancy model with spatial dependency, we assessed the fraction of the total landscape occupied by Sumatran rhinos over a 30,345-km2 survey area and the effects of covariates in the areas where they are known to occur. In the Leuser Landscape (surveyed in 2007), the model averaging result of conditional occupancy estimate was ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.151(0.109) or 2,371.47 km2, and the model averaging result of replicated level detection probability p^(SE[p^])=0.252(0.267); in Way Kambas National Park—2008: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.468(0.165) or 634.18 km2, and p^(SE[p^])=0.138(0.571); and in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park—2010: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.322(0.049) or 819.67 km2, and p^(SE[p^])=0.365(0.42). In the Leuser Landscape, rhino occurrence was positively associated with primary dry land forest and rivers, and negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Way Kambas, occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Bukit Barisan Selatan, occurrence was negatively associated with presence of primary dryland forest and rivers. Using the probabilities of site occupancy, we developed spatially explicit maps that can be used to outline intensive protection zones for in-situ conservation efforts, and provide a detailed assessment of conserving Sumatran rhinos in the wild. We summarize our core recommendation in four points: consolidate small population, strong protection, determine the percentage of breeding females, and recognize the cost of doing nothing. To reduce the probability of poaching, here we present only the randomized location of site level occupancy in our result while retaining the overall estimation of occupancy for a given area. PMID:26376453

A Three Year Study of Four Species of Baleen Whales Occurrence in Faial-Pico Islands of the Azores and its Relation to Satellite-derived Surface Biophysical Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olio, M.; Peres dos Santos, R.; Tepsich, P.; Martins, A. M.

2016-02-01

In this study, data on the distribution of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the waters around Faial and Pico islands (Azores archipelago, NE Atlantic) were collected during three years (2012 to 2014) for the months of March to July. During this period of time, we recorded 518 encounters with these species, being 73 in 2012, 86 in 2013 and 359 in 2014. Recordings were made during whale watching trips from two whale watching companies in those islands. In an attempt to understand better the different yearly occurrences, we used MODIS/AQUA-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (chlorophyll a) to calculate weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, seasonal and yearly averages. Seasonal effects were removed from the data as well, to infer possible trends with time (2011 to 2014). Climatological anomalies were also calculated using MODIS data from 2003 to 2014. Results show that both years 2011 and 2012 present SST and OC negative anomalies through out the whole years. Higher chlorophyll a positive anomalies are observed during the spring of 2014. Maximum SST and chlorophyll a values ranged between 15.4 to 24.0 C and from 0.0 to 0.3 mg m-3, respectively. Sea surface tempature minimum and maxima anomalies ranged from -1.023 and 1.008 both for 2012, and -0.138 and 0.144 for chlorophyll a (for 2012 and 2014, respectively). Preliminary results suggest that phytoplankton concentration may explain the distribution of some whales species, particulary in 2014 where whale records were highest. These results are being further developed looking at mesoscale variability episodical occurrences on weekly to yearly data. Key words: baleen whales, whale watching, spatial and temporal distribution, remote sensing, mesoscale variability.

Physico-chemical and biological characterization of anopheline mosquito larval habitats (Diptera: Culicidae): implications for malaria control.

PubMed

Mereta, Seid Tiku; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Boets, Pieter; Ahmed, Abdulhakim; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Legesse, Worku; De Meester, Luc; Goethals, Peter L M

2013-11-04

A fundamental understanding of the spatial distribution and ecology of mosquito larvae is essential for effective vector control intervention strategies. In this study, data-driven decision tree models, generalized linear models and ordination analysis were used to identify the most important biotic and abiotic factors that affect the occurrence and abundance of mosquito larvae in Southwest Ethiopia. In total, 220 samples were taken at 180 sampling locations during the years 2010 and 2012. Sampling sites were characterized based on physical, chemical and biological attributes. The predictive performance of decision tree models was evaluated based on correctly classified instances (CCI), Cohen's kappa statistic (κ) and the determination coefficient (R2). A conditional analysis was performed on the regression tree models to test the relation between key environmental and biological parameters and the abundance of mosquito larvae. The decision tree model developed for anopheline larvae showed a good model performance (CCI = 84 ± 2%, and κ = 0.66 ± 0.04), indicating that the genus has clear habitat requirements. Anopheline mosquito larvae showed a widespread distribution and especially occurred in small human-made aquatic habitats. Water temperature, canopy cover, emergent vegetation cover, and presence of predators and competitors were found to be the main variables determining the abundance and distribution of anopheline larvae. In contrast, anopheline mosquito larvae were found to be less prominently present in permanent larval habitats. This could be attributed to the high abundance and diversity of natural predators and competitors suppressing the mosquito population densities. The findings of this study suggest that targeting smaller human-made aquatic habitats could result in effective larval control of anopheline mosquitoes in the study area. Controlling the occurrence of mosquito larvae via drainage of permanent wetlands may not be a good management strategy as it negatively affects the occurrence and abundance of mosquito predators and competitors and promotes an increase in anopheline population densities.

Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Frederick, Peter C; Noonburg, Erik G; Gawlik, Dale E.

2015-01-01

Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio-temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short-term water management and long-term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20-year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km2 area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily-multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short- and long-term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.

Physico-chemical and biological characterization of anopheline mosquito larval habitats (Diptera: Culicidae): implications for malaria control

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A fundamental understanding of the spatial distribution and ecology of mosquito larvae is essential for effective vector control intervention strategies. In this study, data-driven decision tree models, generalized linear models and ordination analysis were used to identify the most important biotic and abiotic factors that affect the occurrence and abundance of mosquito larvae in Southwest Ethiopia. Methods In total, 220 samples were taken at 180 sampling locations during the years 2010 and 2012. Sampling sites were characterized based on physical, chemical and biological attributes. The predictive performance of decision tree models was evaluated based on correctly classified instances (CCI), Cohen’s kappa statistic (κ) and the determination coefficient (R2). A conditional analysis was performed on the regression tree models to test the relation between key environmental and biological parameters and the abundance of mosquito larvae. Results The decision tree model developed for anopheline larvae showed a good model performance (CCI = 84 ± 2%, and κ = 0.66 ± 0.04), indicating that the genus has clear habitat requirements. Anopheline mosquito larvae showed a widespread distribution and especially occurred in small human-made aquatic habitats. Water temperature, canopy cover, emergent vegetation cover, and presence of predators and competitors were found to be the main variables determining the abundance and distribution of anopheline larvae. In contrast, anopheline mosquito larvae were found to be less prominently present in permanent larval habitats. This could be attributed to the high abundance and diversity of natural predators and competitors suppressing the mosquito population densities. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that targeting smaller human-made aquatic habitats could result in effective larval control of anopheline mosquitoes in the study area. Controlling the occurrence of mosquito larvae via drainage of permanent wetlands may not be a good management strategy as it negatively affects the occurrence and abundance of mosquito predators and competitors and promotes an increase in anopheline population densities. PMID:24499518