Evaluation of simulated ocean carbon in the CMIP5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James; Brockmann, Patrick; Seferian, Roland; Servonnat, Jérôme; Bopp, Laurent

2013-04-01

We maintain a centralized model output archive containing output from the previous generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), 7 models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. Output is in a common format located on a centralized server and is publicly available through a web interface. Through the same interface, LSCE/IPSL has also made available output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the foundation for the ongoing IPCC AR5 assessment. The latter includes ocean biogeochemical fields from more than 13 ESMs. Modeling partners across 3 EU projects refer to the combined AR4-AR5 archive and comparison as OCMIP5, building on previous phases of OCMIP (Ocean Carbon Cycle Intercomparison Project) and making a clear link to IPCC AR5 (CMIP5). While now focusing on assessing the latest generation of results (AR5, CMIP5), this effort is also able to put them in context (AR4). For model comparison and evaluation, we have also stored computed derived variables (e.g., those needed to assess ocean acidification) and key fields regridded to a common 1°x1° grid, thus complementing the standard CMIP5 archive. The combined AR4-AR5 output (OCMIP5) has been used to compute standard quantitative metrics, both global and regional, and those have been synthesized with summary diagrams. In addition, for key biogeochemical fields we have deconvolved spatiotemporal components of the mean square error in order to constrain which models go wrong where. Here we will detail results from these evaluations which have exploited gridded climatological data. The archive, interface, and centralized evaluation provide a solid technical foundation, upon which collaboration and communication is being broadened in the ocean biogeochemical modeling community. Ultimately we aim to encourage wider use of the OCMIP5 archive.

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

DOE PAGES

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Doutriaux, Charles; ...

2016-06-08

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typicalmore » climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.« less

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Doutriaux, Charles

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typicalmore » climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.« less

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia;

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

1996-01-01

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Coastal Atmosphere and Sea Time Series (CoASTS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Zibordi, Giuseppe; Berthon, Jean-Francoise; Doyle, John P.; Grossi, Stefania; vanderLinde, Dirk; Targa, Cristina; Alberotanza, Luigi; McClain, Charles R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Coastal Atmosphere and Sea Time Series (CoASTS) Project aimed at supporting ocean color research and applications, from 1995 up to the time of publication of this document, has ensured the collection of a comprehensive atmospheric and marine data set from an oceanographic tower located in the northern Adriatic Sea. The instruments and the measurement methodologies used to gather quantities relevant for bio-optical modeling and for the calibration and validation of ocean color sensors, are described. Particular emphasis is placed on four items: (1) the evaluation of perturbation effects in radiometric data (i.e., tower-shading, instrument self-shading, and bottom effects); (2) the intercomparison of seawater absorption coefficients from in situ measurements and from laboratory spectrometric analysis on discrete samples; (3) the intercomparison of two filter techniques for in vivo measurement of particulate absorption coefficients; and (4) the analysis of repeatability and reproducibility of the most relevant laboratory measurements carried out on seawater samples (i.e., particulate and yellow substance absorption coefficients, and pigment and total suspended matter concentrations). Sample data are also presented and discussed to illustrate the typical features characterizing the CoASTS measurement site in view of supporting the suitability of the CoASTS data set for bio-optical modeling and ocean color calibration and validation.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

PubMed Central

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-01-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions. PMID:27934933

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-08-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes have been investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spead in the detailed variations, mapping methods with closer match to the data also tend to be more consistent with each other. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to 2000. The weighted mean total ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song

2016-11-01

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Bakker, Dorothee; Gruber, Nicolas; Iida, Yosuke; Jacobson, Andy; Jones, Steve; Landschützer, Peter; Metzl, Nicolas; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Olsen, Are; Park, Geun-Ha; Peylin, Philippe; Rodgers, Keith; Sasse, Tristan; Schuster, Ute; Shutler, James; Valsala, Vinu; Wanninkhof, Rik; Zeng, Jiye

2016-04-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean COtwo partial pressure (pCOtwo) from the SOCAT and LDEO data bases and 14 different pCOtwo mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCOtwo Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air COtwo fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCOtwo seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCOtwo data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air COtwo flux of IAVampl (standard deviation over AnalysisPeriod), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global ocean COtwo uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean COtwo sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 UPgCyr (AnalysisPeriod), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends. Using data-based sea-air COtwo fluxes in atmospheric COtwo inversions also helps to better constrain land-atmosphere COtwo fluxes.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-12-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison: Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J.

2008-12-01

In this presentation I will discuss the role of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) working groups in paving the way for substantial improvements in cloud parameterization in weather and climate models. The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) is an extension of GCSS and is a different type of model evaluation where climate models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean transect from California to the equator. This approach aims at complementing the more traditional efforts in GCSS by providing a simple framework for the evaluation of models that encompasses several fundamental cloud regimes such as stratocumulus, shallow cumulus and deep cumulus, as well as the transitions between them. Currently twenty four climate and weather prediction models are participating in GPCI. We will present results of the comparison between models and recent satellite data. In particular, we will explore in detail the potential of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and CloudSat data for the evaluation of the representation of clouds and convection in climate models.

IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Phase A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Korkin, Sergey; Ota, Yoshifumi; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

2015-10-01

The polarization state of electromagnetic radiation scattered by atmospheric particles such as aerosols, cloud droplets, or ice crystals contains much more information about the optical and microphysical properties than the total intensity alone. For this reason an increasing number of polarimetric observations are performed from space, from the ground and from aircraft. Polarized radiative transfer models are required to interpret and analyse these measurements and to develop retrieval algorithms exploiting polarimetric observations. In the last years a large number of new codes have been developed, mostly for specific applications. Benchmark results are available for specific cases, but not for more sophisticated scenarios including polarized surface reflection and multi-layer atmospheres. The International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to fill this gap. This paper presents the results of the first phase A of the IPRT project which includes ten test cases, from simple setups with only one layer and Rayleigh scattering to rather sophisticated setups with a cloud embedded in a standard atmosphere above an ocean surface. All scenarios in the first phase A of the intercomparison project are for a one-dimensional plane-parallel model geometry. The commonly established benchmark results are available at the IPRT website.

Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.

PubMed

Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J

2016-09-28

Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; ...

2016-11-22

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relativelymore » few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. Lastly, HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.« less

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D.; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

2017-04-01

The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.;

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

Inter-comparison of automatic rain gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nystuen, Jeffrey A.

1994-01-01

The Ocean Acoustics Division (OAD) of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), in cooperation with NOAA/NESDIS and NASA, has deployed six rain gauges for calibration and intercomparison purposes. These instruments include: (1) a weighing rain gauge, (2) a RM Young Model 50202 capacitance rain gauge, (3) a ScTI ORG-705 (long path) optical rain gauge, (4) a ScTI ORG-105 (mini-ORG) optical rain gauge, (5) a Belfort Model 382 tipping bucket rain gauge, and (6) a Distromet RD-69 disdrometer. The system has been running continuously since July 1993. During this time period, roughly 150 events with maximum rainfall rate over 10 mm/hr and 25 events with maximum rainfall rates over 100 mm/hr have been recorded. All rain gauge types have performed well, with intercorrelations 0.9 or higher. However, limitations for each type of rain gauge have been observed.

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Z.-S.; Nisancioglu, K. H.; Chandler, M. A.; Haywood, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Ramstein, G.; Stepanek, C.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Chan, W. -L.; Sohl, L. E.

2013-01-01

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic.

Improved Decadal Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-Assimilated Initial Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Xin, X.; Wei, M.; Zhou, W.

2017-12-01

Decadal prediction experiments of Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1(BCC-CSM1.1) participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) had poor skill in extratropics of the North Atlantic, the initialization of which was done by relaxing modeled ocean temperature to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. This study aims to improve the prediction skill of this model by using the assimilation technique in the initialization. New ocean data are firstly generated by assimilating the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) dataset to the ocean model of BCC-CSM1.1 via Ensemble Optimum Interpolation (EnOI). Then a suite of decadal re-forecasts launched annually over the period 1961-2005 is carried out with simulated ocean temperature restored to the assimilated ocean data. Comparisons between the re-forecasts and previous CMIP5 forecasts show that the re-forecasts are more skillful in mid-to-high latitude SST of the North Atlantic. Improved prediction skill is also found for the Atlantic multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which is consistent with the better skill of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) predicted by the re-forecasts. We conclude that the EnOI assimilation generates better ocean data than the SODA reanalysis for initializing decadal climate prediction of BCC-CSM1.1 model.

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

2017-04-01

Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

2017-01-01

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Kuragano, Tsurane; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Masuda, Shuhei; Sato, Kanako; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Hernandez, Fabrice; Ferry, Nicolas; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Martin, Matthew J.; Peterson, K. Andrew; Good, Simon A.; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Köhl, Armin; Zuo, Hao; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Yin, Yonghong; Shi, Li; Alves, Oscar; Smith, Gregory; Chang, You-Soon; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wang, Xiaochun; Forget, Gael; Heimbach, Patrick; Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong

2017-08-01

Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10-20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5-7 (14-16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m-3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m-3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes.

Oceanic response to tropical cyclone `Phailin' in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pant, V.; Prakash, K. R.

2016-02-01

Vertical mixing largely explains surface cooling induced by Tropical Cyclones (TCs). However, TC-induced upwelling of deeper waters plays an important role as it partly balances the warming of subsurface waters induced by vertical mixing. Below 100 m, vertical advection results in cooling that persists for a few days after the storm. The present study investigates the integrated ocean response to tropical cyclone `Phaillin' (10-14 October 2013) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) through both coupled and stand-alone ocean-atmosphere models. Two numerical experiments with different coupling configurations between Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) were performed to investigate the impact of Phailin cyclone on the surface and sub-surface oceanic parameters. In the first experiment, ocean circulation model ROMS observe surface wind forcing from a mesoscale atmospheric model (WRF with nested damin setup), while rest forcing parameters are supplied to ROMS from NCEP data. In the second experiment, all surface forcing data to ROMS directly comes from WRF. The modeling components and data fields exchanged between atmospheric and oceanic models are described. The coupled modeling system is used to identify model sensitivity by exchanging prognostic variable fields between the two model components during simulation of Phallin cyclone (10-14 October 2013) in the BoB.In general, the simulated Phailin cyclone track and intensities agree well with observations in WRF simulations. Further, the inter-comparison between stand-alone and coupled model simulations validated against observations highlights better performance of coupled modeling system in simulating the oceanic conditions during the Phailin cyclone event.

Current State and Recent Changes in the Arctic Ocean from the HYCOM-NCODA Global Ocean and Sea Ice Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Chassignet, E. P.; Hogan, P. J.; Metzger, E. J.; Posey, P.; Smedstad, O. M.; Stefanova, L. B.; Wallcraft, A. J.

2016-12-01

The great potential of numerical models to provide a high-resolution continuous picture of the environmental characteristics of the Arctic system is related to the problem of reliability and accuracy of the simulations. Recent Arctic Ocean model intercomparison projects have identified substantial disagreements in water mass distribution and circulation among the models over the last two decades. In situ and satellite observations cannot yield enough continuous in time and space information to interpret the observed changes in the Arctic system. Observations combined with Arctic Ocean models via data assimilation provide perhaps the most complete knowledge about the state of the Arctic system. We use outputs from the US Navy Global Ocean Forecast System (20-year reanalysis + analysis) to investigate several hypotheses that have been put forward regarding the current state and recent changes in the Arctic Ocean. The system is based on the 0.08-degree HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and can be run with two-way coupling to the Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) or with an energy-loan ice model. Observations are assimilated by the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) algorithm. HYCOM temperature and salinity fields are shown to be in good agreement with observational data in the Arctic and North Atlantic. The model reproduces changes in the freshwater budget in the Arctic as reported in other studies. The modeled freshwater fluxes between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic are analyzed to document and discuss the interaction between the two regions over the last two decades.

Biological production in the Indian Ocean upwelling zones - Part 1: refined estimation via the use of a variable compensation depth in ocean carbon models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geethalekshmi Sreeush, Mohanan; Valsala, Vinu; Pentakota, Sreenivas; Venkata Siva Rama Prasad, Koneru; Murtugudde, Raghu

2018-04-01

Biological modelling approach adopted by the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-II) provided amazingly simple but surprisingly accurate rendition of the annual mean carbon cycle for the global ocean. Nonetheless, OCMIP models are known to have seasonal biases which are typically attributed to their bulk parameterisation of compensation depth. Utilising the criteria of surface Chl a-based attenuation of solar radiation and the minimum solar radiation required for production, we have proposed a new parameterisation for a spatially and temporally varying compensation depth which captures the seasonality in the production zone reasonably well. This new parameterisation is shown to improve the seasonality of CO2 fluxes, surface ocean pCO2, biological export and new production in the major upwelling zones of the Indian Ocean. The seasonally varying compensation depth enriches the nutrient concentration in the upper ocean yielding more faithful biological exports which in turn leads to accurate seasonality in the carbon cycle. The export production strengthens by ˜ 70 % over the western Arabian Sea during the monsoon period and achieves a good balance between export and new production in the model. This underscores the importance of having a seasonal balance in the model export and new productions for a better representation of the seasonality of the carbon cycle over upwelling regions. The study also implies that both the biological and solubility pumps play an important role in the Indian Ocean upwelling zones.

Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2016-04-01

Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase our knowledge on the IBI-MFC forecast system and aids us to inform CMEMS end users about the provided ocean forecasting products' confidence level by routinely delivering QUality Information Documents (QUIDs). It allows the detection of strengths and weaknesses in the modeling of several key physical processes and the understanding of potential sources of discrepancies in IBI predictions. Once the numerical model shortcomings are identified, potential improvements can be achieved thanks to reliable upgrades, making evolve IBI OOFS towards more refined and advanced versions.

More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Weller, Evan; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-01-01

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of extreme ITCZ events under greenhouse warming, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. PMID:25124737

Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, Heather; Allison, Colin E.; Etheridge, David M.; Hammer, Samuel; Keeling, Ralph F.; Levin, Ingeborg; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Rubino, Mauro; Tans, Pieter P.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; White, James W. C.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Natural Air-Sea Flux of CO2 in Simulations of the NASA-GISS Climate Model: Sensitivity to the Physical Ocean Model Formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, A.; Gregg, Watson W.; Romanski, J.; Kelley, M.; Bleck, R.; Healy, R.; Nazarenko, L.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G. A.; Sun, S.;

Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Kwok, Ron; Derksen, Chris; King, Joshua

2016-07-01

Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957-2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (-4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade-1), Eureka (-4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade-1) and Alert (-4.44 ± 1.6 cm -1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ˜ 0.24-0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.

Composite Study Of Aerosol Long-Range Transport Events From East Asia And North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Xavier, P.; Petch, J.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S.

2011-12-01

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts pronounced influences on global climate and weather systems, current general circulation models (GCMs) exhibit rather limited capability in representing this prominent tropical variability mode. Meanwhile, the fundamental physics of the MJO are still elusive. Given the central role of the diabatic heating for prevailing MJO theories and demands for reducing the model deficiencies in simulating the MJO, a global model inter-comparison project on diabatic processes and vertical heating structure associated with the MJO has been coordinated through a joint effort by the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force and GEWEX GASS Program. In this presentation, progress of this model inter-comparison project will be reported, with main focus on climate simulations from about 27 atmosphere-only and coupled GCMs. Vertical structures of heating and diabatic processes associated with the MJO based on multi-model simulations will be presented along with their reanalysis and satellite estimate counterparts. Key processes possibly responsible for a realistic simulation of the MJO, including moisture-convection interaction, gross moist stability, ocean coupling, and surface heat flux, will be discussed.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

DOE Data Explorer

Collier, Nathaniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

2016-05-09

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

DOE Data Explorer

Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2016-05-02

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

Projected changes of the low-latitude north-western Pacific wind-driven circulation under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Jing; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

2017-05-01

Based on the outputs of 25 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the projected changes of the wind-driven circulation in the low-latitude north-western Pacific are evaluated. Results demonstrate that there will be a decrease in the mean transport of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current, and Kuroshio Current in the east of the Philippines, accompanied by a northward shift of the NEC bifurcation Latitude (NBL) off the Philippine coast with over 30% increase in its seasonal south-north migration amplitude. Numerical simulations using a 1.5-layer nonlinear reduced-gravity ocean model show that the projected changes of the upper ocean circulation are predominantly determined by the robust weakening of the north-easterly trade winds and the associated wind stress curl under the El Niño-like warming pattern. The changes in the wind forcing and intensified upper ocean stratification are found equally important in amplifying the seasonal migration of the NBL.

Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments.

PubMed

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Karcher, Michael; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Gerdes, Rüdiger; de Cuevas, Beverly; Golubeva, Elena; Kauker, Frank; Nguyen, An T; Platov, Gennady A; Wadley, Martin; Watanabe, Eiji; Coward, Andrew C; Nurser, A J George

2016-01-01

Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings in heat, fresh water, and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper, pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state-of-the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations, PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along the continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The second begins in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East Siberian Sea into the Transpolar Drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW into the Beaufort Gyre. In the models, the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind affects the simulated PW pathways by changing the vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin.

Overlooked Role of Mesoscale Winds in Powering Ocean Diapycnal Mixing.

PubMed

Jing, Zhao; Wu, Lixin; Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping

2016-11-16

Diapycnal mixing affects the uptake of heat and carbon by the ocean as well as plays an important role in global ocean circulations and climate. In the thermocline, winds provide an important energy source for furnishing diapycnal mixing primarily through the generation of near-inertial internal waves. However, this contribution is largely missing in the current generation of climate models. In this study, it is found that mesoscale winds at scales of a few hundred kilometers account for more than 65% of near-inertial energy flux into the North Pacific basin and 55% of turbulent kinetic dissipation rate in the thermocline, suggesting their dominance in powering diapycnal mixing in the thermocline. Furthermore, a new parameterization of wind-driven diapycnal mixing in the ocean interior for climate models is proposed, which, for the first time, successfully captures both temporal and spatial variations of wind-driven diapycnal mixing in the thermocline. It is suggested that as mesoscale winds are not resolved by the climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) due to insufficient resolutions, the diapycnal mixing is likely poorly represented, raising concerns about the accuracy and robustness of climate change simulations and projections.

Overlooked Role of Mesoscale Winds in Powering Ocean Diapycnal Mixing

PubMed Central

Jing, Zhao; Wu, Lixin; Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping

2016-01-01

Diapycnal mixing affects the uptake of heat and carbon by the ocean as well as plays an important role in global ocean circulations and climate. In the thermocline, winds provide an important energy source for furnishing diapycnal mixing primarily through the generation of near-inertial internal waves. However, this contribution is largely missing in the current generation of climate models. In this study, it is found that mesoscale winds at scales of a few hundred kilometers account for more than 65% of near-inertial energy flux into the North Pacific basin and 55% of turbulent kinetic dissipation rate in the thermocline, suggesting their dominance in powering diapycnal mixing in the thermocline. Furthermore, a new parameterization of wind-driven diapycnal mixing in the ocean interior for climate models is proposed, which, for the first time, successfully captures both temporal and spatial variations of wind-driven diapycnal mixing in the thermocline. It is suggested that as mesoscale winds are not resolved by the climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) due to insufficient resolutions, the diapycnal mixing is likely poorly represented, raising concerns about the accuracy and robustness of climate change simulations and projections. PMID:27849059

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

2014-08-01

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1, two interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Galton-Fenzi, B.; Gwyther, D.; Jourdain, N.; Martin, D. F.; Nakayama, Y.; Seroussi, H. L.

2016-12-01

MISMIP+ (the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP), ISOMIP+ (the second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP) and MISOMIP1 (the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for marine ice-sheet models, ocean models with ice-shelf cavities, and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. Here, we present results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among the ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (the heat- and salt-transfer coefficients across the sub-ice-shelf boundary layer) for each model. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to tuning the models to match observed melt rates. We compare the evolution of ocean temperature transects, melt rate, friction velocity and thermal driving between ocean models for the five ISOMIP+ experiments (Ocean0-4), which have prescribed ice-shelf topography. We find that melt patterns differ between models based on the relative importance of overturning strength and vertical mixing of temperature even when the models have been tuned to achieve similar melt rates near the grounding line. For the two MISOMIP1 experiments (IceOcean1 without dynamic calving and IceOcean2 with a simple calving parameterization), we compare temperature transects, melt rate, ice-shelf topography and grounded area across models and for several model configurations. Consistent with preliminary results from MISMIP+, we find that for a given coupled model, the use of a Coulomb-limited basal friction parameterization below grounded ice and the application of dynamic calving both significantly increase the rate of grounding-line retreat, whereas the rate of retreat appears to be less sensitive to the ice stress approximation (shallow-shelf approximation, higher-order, etc.). We show that models with similar mean melt rates, stress approximations and basal friction parameterizations produce markedly different rates of grounding-line retreat, and we investigate possible sources of these disparities (e.g. differences in coupling strategy or melt distribution).

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project: Overview of model intercomparisons

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improvement of crop simulation models to better estimate growth and yield is one of the objectives of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The overall goal of AgMIP is to provide an assessment of crop model through rigorous intercomparisons and evaluate future clim...

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

How ocean lateral mixing changes Southern Ocean variability in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradal, M. A. S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Thomas, J. L.

2016-02-01

The lateral mixing of tracers represents a major uncertainty in the formulation of coupled climate models. The mixing of tracers along density surfaces in the interior and horizontally within the mixed layer is often parameterized using a mixing coefficient ARedi. The models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 exhibit more than an order of magnitude range in the values of this coefficient used within the Southern Ocean. The impacts of such uncertainty on Southern Ocean variability have remained unclear, even as recent work has shown that this variability differs between different models. In this poster, we change the lateral mixing coefficient within GFDL ESM2Mc, a coarse-resolution Earth System model that nonetheless has a reasonable circulation within the Southern Ocean. As the coefficient varies from 400 to 2400 m2/s the amplitude of the variability varies significantly. The low-mixing case shows strong decadal variability with an annual mean RMS temperature variability exceeding 1C in the Circumpolar Current. The highest-mixing case shows a very similar spatial pattern of variability, but with amplitudes only about 60% as large. The suppression of mixing is larger in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean relatively to the Pacific sector. We examine the salinity budgets of convective regions, paying particular attention to the extent to which high mixing prevents the buildup of low-saline waters that are capable of shutting off deep convection entirely.

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

2018-05-01

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets, ERA Interim reanalysis, and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skok, Gregor; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Honzak, Luka; Žabkar, Rahela; Rakovec, Jože; Ceglar, Andrej

2016-01-01

The study presents a precipitation intercomparison based on two satellite-derived datasets (TRMM 3B42, CMORPH), four raingauge-based datasets (GPCC, E-OBS, Willmott & Matsuura, CRU), ERA Interim reanalysis (ERAInt), and a single climate simulation using the WRF model. The comparison was performed for a domain encompassing parts of Europe and the North Atlantic over the 11-year period of 2000-2010. The four raingauge-based datasets are similar to the TRMM dataset with biases over Europe ranging from -7 % to +4 %. The spread among the raingauge-based datasets is relatively small over most of Europe, although areas with greater uncertainty (more than 30 %) exist, especially near the Alps and other mountainous regions. There are distinct differences between the datasets over the European land area and the Atlantic Ocean in comparison to the TRMM dataset. ERAInt has a small dry bias over the land; the WRF simulation has a large wet bias (+30 %), whereas CMORPH is characterized by a large and spatially consistent dry bias (-21 %). Over the ocean, both ERAInt and CMORPH have a small wet bias (+8 %) while the wet bias in WRF is significantly larger (+47 %). ERAInt has the highest frequency of low-intensity precipitation while the frequency of high-intensity precipitation is the lowest due to its lower native resolution. Both satellite-derived datasets have more low-intensity precipitation over the ocean than over the land, while the frequency of higher-intensity precipitation is similar or larger over the land. This result is likely related to orography, which triggers more intense convective precipitation, while the Atlantic Ocean is characterized by more homogenous large-scale precipitation systems which are associated with larger areas of lower intensity precipitation. However, this is not observed in ERAInt and WRF, indicating the insufficient representation of convective processes in the models. Finally, the Fraction Skill Score confirmed that both models perform better over the Atlantic Ocean with ERAInt outperforming the WRF at low thresholds and WRF outperforming ERAInt at higher thresholds. The diurnal cycle is simulated better in the WRF simulation than in ERAInt, although WRF could not reproduce well the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. While the evaluation of the WRF model confirms earlier findings related to the model's wet bias over European land, the applied satellite-derived precipitation datasets revealed differences between the land and ocean areas along with uncertainties in the observation datasets.

Remote forcing at the Last Glacial Maximum in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreasen, Dyke H.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Broccoli, Anthony J.

2001-01-01

We present results of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) wind stress sensitivity experiment using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean. LGM wind stress, used to drive the ocean model, was generated using an atmospheric general circulation model simulation forced by LGM boundary conditions as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) [Broccoli, 2000]. LGM wind stress anomalies were large in the western half of the basin, yet there was a significant hydrographic response in the eastern half. This ocean model experiment hind casts changes that are in close agreement with paleoceanographic data from the entire region, even without the explicit modeling of the air-sea interactions. Data and model both predict that the annual average thermocline tilt across the basin was enhanced. Data and model are consistent with a stronger equatorial undercurrent which shoaled to the west of where it does today, and stronger advection of water from the Peru Current into the east equatorial Pacific and across the equator. Paleoproductivity and sea surface temperature (SST) data are interpreted in light of the modeling results, indicating that paleoproductivity changes were related to wind-forced dynamical changes resulting from LGM boundary conditions, while SST changes were related to independent, possibly radiative, forcing. Overall, our results imply that much of the dynamic response of the tropical Pacific during the LGM can be explained by wind field changes resulting from global LGM boundary conditions.

IPSL-CM5A2. An Earth System Model designed to run long simulations for past and future climates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulchre, Pierre; Caubel, Arnaud; Marti, Olivier; Hourdin, Frédéric; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Boucher, Olivier

2017-04-01

The IPSL-CM5A model was developed and released in 2013 "to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)" [Dufresne et al., 2013]. Although this model also has been used for numerous paleoclimate studies, a major limitation was its computation time, which averaged 10 model-years / day on 32 cores of the Curie supercomputer (on TGCC computing center, France). Such performances were compatible with the experimental designs of intercomparison projects (e.g. CMIP, PMIP) but became limiting for modelling activities involving several multi-millenial experiments, which are typical for Quaternary or "deeptime" paleoclimate studies, in which a fully-equilibrated deep-ocean is mandatory. Here we present the Earth-System model IPSL-CM5A2. Based on IPSL-CM5A, technical developments have been performed both on separate components and on the coupling system in order to speed up the whole coupled model. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization MPI-OpenMP in LMDz atmospheric component, the use of a new input-ouput library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as "IO servers", the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. Running on 304 cores, the model can now simulate 55 years per day, opening new gates towards multi-millenial simulations. Apart from obtaining better computing performances, one aim of setting up IPSL-CM5A2 was also to overcome the cold bias depicted in global surface air temperature (t2m) in IPSL-CM5A. We present the tuning strategy to overcome this bias as well as the main characteristics (including biases) of the pre-industrial climate simulated by IPSL-CM5A2. Lastly, we shortly present paleoclimate simulations run with this model, for the Holocene and for deeper timescales in the Cenozoic, for which the particular continental configuration was overcome by a new design of the ocean tripolar grid.

Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

2016-02-01

For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, Robin; Challenor, Peter

2014-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM's heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Arctic sea-ice variability and its implication to the path of pollutants under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, K.; Gerdes, R.; Riemann-Campe, K.; Köberle, C.; Losch, M.

2012-04-01

The increasing concentration of pollutants from anthropogenic origin in the Arctic atmosphere, water, sediments and biota has been evident during the last decade. The sea-ice is an important vehicle for pollutants in the Arctic Ocean. Pollutants are taken up by precipitation and dry atmospheric deposition over the snow and ice cover during winter and released to the ocean during melting. Recent changes in the sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean affect the fresh water balance and the oceanic circulation, and with it, the fate of pollutants in the system. The Arctic Ocean is characterized by complex dynamics and strong stratification. Thus, to evaluate the current and future changes in the Arctic circulation high-resolution models are needed. As part of the EU FP7 project ArcRisk (under the scope of the IPY), we use a high resolution regional sea-ice-ocean coupled model covering the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - circulation model (MITgcm). Under realistic atmospheric forcing we obtain hindcast results of circulation patterns for the period 1990 - 2010 for validation of the model. We evaluate possible consequences on the pathways and transport of contaminants by downscaling future climate scenario runs available in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) for the following fifty years. Particular interest is set in the Barents Sea. In this shallow region strong river runoff, sea-ice delivered from the interior of the Arctic Ocean and warm waters from the North Atlantic current are main sources of contaminants. Under a changing climate, a higher input of contaminants delivered to surface waters is expected, remaining in the interior of the Arctic Ocean in a strongly stratified water column remaining.

The role of ocean fluxes and radiative forcings in determining tropical rainfall shifts in RCP8.5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarlane, Ashly Ann; Frierson, Dargan M. W.

2017-08-01

We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to attribute tropical precipitation shifts under global warming scenarios and changes in cross-equatorial atmosphere heat transport (c-eq AHT) to changes in ocean and radiative fluxes. We find that the models tend to agree on the sign of c-eq AHT and change in precipitation asymmetry induced by each forcing, but not the magnitude. The ice-albedo feedback and aerosol emission reduction lead to the Northern Hemisphere warming, but this is countered by a reduction to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation northward heat transport and increased longwave leading to the multimodel mean change in precipitation asymmetry being approximately zero. None of the forcings considered, including aerosol cleanup, can account for more than 20% of the multimodel mean change in c-eq AHT alone.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Temperature Changes in the United States. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vose, R. S.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Irreducible Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovenduski, N. S.; Bonan, G. B.

2016-12-01

We quantify and isolate the sources of uncertainty in projections of carbon accumulation by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere over 2006-2100 using output from Earth System Models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We consider three independent sources of uncertainty in our analysis of variance: (1) internal variability, driven by random, internal variations in the climate system, (2) emission scenario, driven by uncertainty in future radiative forcing, and (3) model structure, wherein different models produce different projections given the same emission scenario. Whereas uncertainty in projections of ocean carbon accumulation by 2100 is 100 Pg C and driven primarily by emission scenario, uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon accumulation by 2100 is 50% larger than that of the ocean, and driven primarily by model structure. This structural uncertainty is correlated with emission scenario: the variance associated with model structure is an order of magnitude larger under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) than a mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). In an effort to reduce this structural uncertainty, we apply various model weighting schemes to our analysis of variance in terrestrial carbon accumulation projections. The largest reductions in uncertainty are achieved when giving all the weight to a single model; here the uncertainty is of a similar magnitude to the ocean projections. Such an analysis suggests that this structural uncertainty is irreducible given current terrestrial model development efforts.

Investigation of shortcomings in simulated aerosol vertical profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.

2017-12-01

The vertical distribution of aerosols is one important factor for aerosol radiative forcing. Previous studies show that climate models poorly reproduce the aerosol vertical profile, with too much aerosol aloft in the upper troposphere. This bias may be related to several factors, including excessive convective mass flux and wet removal. In this study, we evaluate the aerosol vertical profile from several Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, as well as the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5), relative to the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO). The results show that all models significantly underestimate extinction coefficient in the lower troposphere, while overestimating extinction coefficient in the upper troposphere. In addition, the majority of models indicate a land-ocean dependence in the relationship between aerosol extinction coefficient in the upper troposphere and convective mass flux. Over the continents, more convective mass flux is related to more aerosol aloft; over the ocean, more convective mass flux is associated with less aerosol in upper troposphere. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the role that convection and wet deposition have in contributing to the deficient simulation of the vertical aerosol profile, including the land-ocean dependence.

State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

2017-10-01

Growing evidence from general circulation models (GCMs) indicates that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) depends on the magnitude of forcing, which is commonly referred to as state-dependence. We present a comprehensive assessment of ECS state-dependence in Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) by analyzing millennial simulations with sustained 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 forcings. We compare different extrapolation methods and show that ECS is smaller in the higher-forcing scenario in 12 out of 15 EMICs, in contrast to the opposite behavior reported from GCMs. In one such EMIC, the Bern3D-LPX model, this state-dependence is mainly due to the weakening sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean, which depends on model configuration. Due to ocean-mixing adjustments, state-dependence is only detected hundreds of years after the abrupt forcing, highlighting the need for long model integrations. Adjustments to feedback parametrizations of EMICs may be necessary if GCM intercomparisons confirm an opposite state-dependence.

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments

PubMed Central

Karcher, Michael; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Gerdes, Rüdiger; de Cuevas, Beverly; Golubeva, Elena; Kauker, Frank; Nguyen, An T.; Platov, Gennady A.; Wadley, Martin; Watanabe, Eiji; Coward, Andrew C.; Nurser, A. J. George

2016-01-01

Abstract Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings in heat, fresh water, and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper, pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state‐of‐the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations, PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along the continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The second begins in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East Siberian Sea into the Transpolar Drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW into the Beaufort Gyre. In the models, the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind affects the simulated PW pathways by changing the vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin. PMID:27818853

Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

2016-09-01

The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (<1000 m) between 15° and ˜32°S, largely related to a weakening of the wind stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning; ...

2016-10-27

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bombardi, Rodrigo J.; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Huang, Bohua; Chen, Hua; Lu, Jian; Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Krishnamurthy, V.; Colfescu, Ioana; Kinter, James L.; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Tripp, Patrick; Wu, Xingren; Schneider, Edwin K.

2015-01-01

Retrospective decadal forecasts were undertaken using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Decadal forecasts were performed separately by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), with the centers using two different analyses for the ocean initial conditions the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis. COLA also examined the sensitivity to the inclusion of forcing by specified volcanic aerosols. Biases in the CFSv2 for both sets of initial conditions include cold midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and rapid melting of sea ice associated with warm polar oceans. Forecasts from the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis showed strong weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), eventually approaching the weaker AMOC associated with CFSR. The decadal forecasts showed high predictive skill over the Indian, the western Pacific, and the Atlantic Oceans and low skill over the central and eastern Pacific. The volcanic forcing shows only small regional differences in predictability of surface temperature at 2m (T2m) in comparison to forecasts without volcanic forcing, especially over the Indian Ocean. An ocean heat content (OHC) budget analysis showed that the OHC has substantial memory, indicating potential for the decadal predictability of T2m; however, the model has a systematic drift in global mean OHC. The results suggest that the reduction of model biases may be the most productive path towards improving the model's decadal forecasts.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.; Legutke, Stephanie; Bader, Jürgen; Böttinger, Michael; Brovkin, Victor; Crueger, Traute; Esch, Monika; Fieg, Kerstin; Glushak, Ksenia; Gayler, Veronika; Haak, Helmuth; Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Matei, Daniela; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mueller, Wolfgang; Notz, Dirk; Pithan, Felix; Raddatz, Thomas; Rast, Sebastian; Redler, Rene; Roeckner, Erich; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina D.; Stockhause, Martina; Timmreck, Claudia; Wegner, Jörg; Widmann, Heinrich; Wieners, Karl-H.; Claussen, Martin; Marotzke, Jochem; Stevens, Bjorn

2013-07-01

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080-2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K-1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K-1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, Anastasia; Marshall, John

2015-01-01

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline

2017-07-01

Deep water formation in climate models is indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Present-day temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to assess the biases, causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep convection in models. The majority of models convect too deep, over too large an area, too often and too far south. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. Half of the models convect in response to local cooling or salinification of the surface waters; only a third have a dynamic relationship between freshwater coming from the Arctic and deep convection. The models with the most intense deep convection have the warmest deep waters, due to a redistribution of heat through the water column. For the majority of models, the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas up to 2 years before. In turn, models with the strongest AMOC have the largest heat export to the Arctic. Understanding the dynamical drivers of deep convection and AMOC in models is hence key to realistically forecasting Arctic oceanic warming and its consequences for the global ocean circulation, cryosphere and marine life.

Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-08-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

Assessment of Satellite Radiometry in the Visible Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melin, Frederick; Franz, Bryan A.

2014-01-01

Marine reflectance and chlorophyll-a concentration are listed among the Essential Climate Variables by the Global Climate Observing System. To contribute to climate research, the satellite ocean color data records resulting from successive missions need to be consistent and well characterized in terms of uncertainties. This chapter reviews various approaches that can be used for the assessment of satellite ocean color data. Good practices for validating satellite products with in situ data and the current status of validation results are illustrated. Model-based approaches and inter-comparison techniques can also contribute to characterize some components of the uncertainty budget, while time series analysis can detect issues with the instrument radiometric characterization and calibration. Satellite data from different missions should also provide a consistent picture in scales of variability, including seasonal and interannual signals. Eventually, the various assessment approaches should be combined to create a fully characterized climate data record from satellite ocean color.

Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

2017-04-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J.; Forster, Piers M.; Andrews, Timothy; Cole, Jason N. S.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Moore, John C.; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-12-01

of surface and atmospheric energy budget responses to CO2 and solar forcings can be used to reveal mechanisms of change in the hydrological cycle. We apply this energetic perspective to output from 11 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models simulating experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), which achieves top-of-atmosphere energy balance between an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels (abrupt4xCO2) and uniform solar irradiance reduction. We divide the climate system response into a rapid adjustment, in which climate response is due to adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface on short time scales, and a feedback response, in which the climate response is predominantly due to feedback related to global mean temperature changes. Global mean temperature change is small in G1, so the feedback response is also small. G1 shows a smaller magnitude of land sensible heat flux rapid adjustment than in abrupt4xCO2 and a larger magnitude of latent heat flux adjustment, indicating a greater reduction of evaporation and less land temperature increase than abrupt4xCO2. The sum of surface flux changes in G1 is small, indicating little ocean heat uptake. Using an energetic perspective to assess precipitation changes, abrupt4xCO2 shows decreased mean evaporative moisture flux and increased moisture convergence, particularly over land. However, most changes in precipitation in G1 are in mean evaporative flux, suggesting that changes in mean circulation are small.

Realism of the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 models, and the Implication for Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, E.; Cai, W.; Cowan, T.

2012-12-01

An assessment of how well climate models simulate the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is undertaken using coupled models that have partaken in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to CMIP3 models, no substantial improvement is evident in the simulation of the IOD pattern and/or amplitude during its peak season in austral spring (September-October-November, or SON). The majority of CMIP5 models generate a larger variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Sumatra-Java upwelling region and an IOD amplitude that is far greater than what is observed. Although the relationship between precipitation and the tropical Indian Ocean SST is well simulated, future projections of SON rainfall changes over IOD-influenced regions are intrinsically linked to the IOD-rainfall teleconnection and IOD amplitude in the model present-day climate. The diversity of the simulated IOD amplitudes in CMIP5 (and CMIP3) models which tend to be overly large, results in a wide range of future modelled SON rainfall trends over IOD-influenced regions. Our results highlight the importance of realistically simulating the present-day IOD properties and the caveat that needs to be exercised in interpreting climate projections in the IOD-affected regions.

Estimating the numerical diapycnal mixing in an eddy-permitting ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megann, Alex

2018-01-01

Constant-depth (or "z-coordinate") ocean models such as MOM4 and NEMO have become the de facto workhorse in climate applications, having attained a mature stage in their development and are well understood. A generic shortcoming of this model type, however, is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which in some cases may exceed the explicitly parameterised mixing based on observed physical processes, and this is likely to have effects on the long-timescale evolution of the simulated climate system. Despite this, few quantitative estimates have been made of the typical magnitude of the effective diapycnal diffusivity due to numerical mixing in these models. GO5.0 is a recent ocean model configuration developed jointly by the UK Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre. It forms the ocean component of the GC2 climate model, and is closely related to the ocean component of the UKESM1 Earth System Model, the UK's contribution to the CMIP6 model intercomparison. GO5.0 uses version 3.4 of the NEMO model, on the ORCA025 global tripolar grid. An approach to quantifying the numerical diapycnal mixing in this model, based on the isopycnal watermass analysis of Lee et al. (2002), is described, and the estimates thereby obtained of the effective diapycnal diffusivity in GO5.0 are compared with the values of the explicit diffusivity used by the model. It is shown that the effective mixing in this model configuration is up to an order of magnitude higher than the explicit mixing in much of the ocean interior, implying that mixing in the model below the mixed layer is largely dominated by numerical mixing. This is likely to have adverse consequences for the representation of heat uptake in climate models intended for decadal climate projections, and in particular is highly relevant to the interpretation of the CMIP6 class of climate models, many of which use constant-depth ocean models at ¼° resolution

RESULTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

A North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS) has been conducted to build upon the findings from previous mercury model intercomparison in Europe. In the absence of mercury measurement networks sufficient for model evaluation, model developers continue to rely on...

Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

2015-04-01

An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable accuracy over a series of studies designed to test ability to predict upper ocean conditions.

Reexamining the Nonlinear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship Over the Tropical Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushley, S. S.; Kim, D.; Bretherton, C. S.; Ahn, M.-S.

2018-01-01

Bretherton et al. (2004) used the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) version 5 product to derive an exponential curve that describes the relationship between precipitation and column relative humidity (CRH) over the tropical oceans. The curve, which features a precipitation pickup at a CRH of about 0.75 and a rapid increase of precipitation with CRH after the pickup, has been widely used in the studies of the tropical atmosphere. This study reexamines the moisture-precipitation relationship by using the version 7 SSM/I data, in which several biases in the previous version are corrected, and evaluates the relationship in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In the revised exponential curve derived using the updated satellite data, the precipitation pickup occurs at a higher CRH ( 0.8), and precipitation increases more slowly with CRH than in the previous curve. In most CMIP5 models, the precipitation pickup is too early due to the common model bias of overestimated (underestimated) precipitation in the dry (wet) regime.

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Juergen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.;

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping.

PubMed

Gascard, Jean-Claude; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Schyberg, Harald; Randriamampianina, Roger; Karcher, Michael; Zhang, Jinlun; Rafizadeh, Mehrad

2017-12-01

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John; Hausmann, Ute; Armour, Kyle C.; Ferreira, David; Holland, Marika M.

2017-03-01

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the response of the Southern Ocean SST (55°S-70°S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step response function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only 3 years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models' climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use observational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Andrew J.; Sedláček, Jan; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Joos, Fortunat; Kawamiya, Michio; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Steinacher, Marco; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tokos, Kathy; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2012-10-01

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%-25% 5%-95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%-30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%-35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%-44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°-32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

A Last Glacial Maximum world-ocean simulation at eddy-permitting resolution - Part 1: Experimental design and basic evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Brodeau, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Lundberg, P.; Döös, K.

2013-01-01

Most state-of-the-art climate models include a coarsely resolved oceanic component, which has difficulties in capturing detailed dynamics, and therefore eddy-permitting/eddy-resolving simulations have been developed to reproduce the observed World Ocean. In this study, an eddy-permitting numerical experiment is conducted to simulate the global ocean state for a period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 26 500 to 19 000 yr ago) and to investigate the improvements due to taking into account these higher spatial scales. The ocean general circulation model is forced by a 49-yr sample of LGM atmospheric fields constructed from a quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation. The initial state and the bottom boundary condition conform to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) recommendations. Before evaluating the model efficiency in representing the paleo-proxy reconstruction of the surface state, the LGM experiment is in this first part of the investigation, compared with a present-day eddy-permitting hindcast simulation as well as with the available PMIP results. It is shown that the LGM eddy-permitting simulation is consistent with the quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation, but large discrepancies are found with the PMIP model analyses, probably due to the different equilibration states. The strongest meridional gradients of the sea-surface temperature are located near 40° N and S, this due to particularly large North-Atlantic and Southern-Ocean sea-ice covers. These also modify the locations of the convection sites (where deep-water forms) and most of the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation consequently takes place in a thinner layer than today. Despite some discrepancies with other LGM simulations, a glacial state is captured and the eddy-permitting simulation undertaken here yielded a useful set of data for comparisons with paleo-proxy reconstructions.

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems are challenging to predict since additive or antagonistic effects may occur. A benchmarking tool for accurate assessment and validation of marine biogeochemical outputs will be indispensable as the model community continues to improve ESM developments. It will provide a first order tool in understanding climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation research activity for historical period model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural economic model groups around the...

The First SIMBIOS Radiometric Intercomparison (SIMRIC-1), April-September 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meister, Gerhard; Abel, Peter; McClain, Charles; Barnes, Robert; Fargion, Giulietta; Cooper, John; Davis, Curtiss; Korwan, Daniel; Godin, Mike; Maffione, Robert

2002-01-01

This report describes the first SIMBIOS (Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies) Radiometric Intercomparison (SIMRIC-1). The purpose of the SIMRIC-1 is to ensure a common radiometric scale of the calibration facilities that are engaged in calibrating in situ radiometers used for ocean color related research and to document the calibration procedures and protocols. SIMBIOS staff visited the seven participating laboratories for at least two days each. The SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer SXR-II measured the calibration radiances produced in the laboratories. The measured radiances were compared with the radiances expected by the laboratories. Typically, the measured radiances were higher than the expected radiances by 0 to 2%. This level of agreement is satisfactory. Several issues were identified, where the calibration protocols need to be improved, especially the reflectance calibration of the reference plaques and the distance correction when using the irradiance standards at distances greater than the 50 cm. The responsivity of the SXR-II changed between 0.3% (channel 6) and 1.6% (channel 2) from December 2000 to December 2001. Monitoring the SXR-II with a portable light source showed a linear drift of the calibration, except for channel 1, where a 2% drop occurred in summer.

The Second SIMBIOS Radiometric Intercomparison (SIMRIC-2), March-November 2002. Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meister, Gerhard; Abel, Peter; Carder, Kendall; Chapin, Albert; Clark, Dennis; Cooper, John; Davis, Curtis; English, David; Fargion, Giulietta; Feinholz, Michael;

Validation and Intercomparison Studies Within GODAE

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 20091228154 14. ABSTRACT During the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), seven international... global -ocean and basin-scale forecasting systems of different countries in routine interaction and continuous operation, (2) to assess the quality and... Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only), Code 7o30 4 Division, Code ^VtcV Vs-Jc \\ -Vi<-’/c ••>’ 3^v’.-:5, w. 3Uo|eri 1

SIMBIOS Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance Calibration and Validation: Sensor Response, Atmospheric Corrections, Stray Light and Sun Glint. Chapter 14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, James L.

2001-01-01

This Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) contract supports acquisition of match up radiometric and bio-optical data for validation of Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and other ocean color satellites, and evaluation of uncertainty budgets and protocols for in situ measurements of normalized water leaving radiances.

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi; Liu, Li; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Juanjuan; Li, Ruizhe; Zhang, Cheng; Xu, Shiming; Huang, Wenyu; Liu, Qun; Wang, Yong; Li, Feifei

2017-08-01

A novel full-field initialization strategy based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well-known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation-based nudging full-field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS-g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-03-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew;

An ocean dynamical thermostat—dominant in observations, absent in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is coupled to the Walker circulation, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease in the zonal SST gradient is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a seasonal weakening of the Walker circulation and thus can reconcile disparate observations of changes to the atmosphere and ocean in the equatorial Pacific. CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of this response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing potentially because of biases in the sensitivity of the EUC to changes in zonal wind stress, like the weakening Walker circulation. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Q.

2015-12-01

The Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL) is introduced in this work. FAMIL have the flexible horizontal and vertical resolutions up to 25km and 1Pa respectively, which currently running on the "Tianhe 1A&2" supercomputers. FAMIL is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL, this talk describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances, precipitation, Asian Summer Monsoon and stratospheric circulation, and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed.

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard

2013-01-01

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

MEDUSA-2.0: an intermediate complexity biogeochemical model of the marine carbon cycle for climate change and ocean acidification studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yool, A.; Popova, E. E.; Anderson, T. R.

2013-10-01

MEDUSA-1.0 (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification) was developed as an "intermediate complexity" plankton ecosystem model to study the biogeochemical response, and especially that of the so-called "biological pump", to anthropogenically driven change in the World Ocean (Yool et al., 2011). The base currency in this model was nitrogen from which fluxes of organic carbon, including export to the deep ocean, were calculated by invoking fixed C:N ratios in phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. However, due to anthropogenic activity, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has significantly increased above its natural, inter-glacial background. As such, simulating and predicting the carbon cycle in the ocean in its entirety, including ventilation of CO2 with the atmosphere and the resulting impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, requires that both organic and inorganic carbon be afforded a more complete representation in the model specification. Here, we introduce MEDUSA-2.0, an expanded successor model which includes additional state variables for dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen and detritus carbon (permitting variable C:N in exported organic matter), as well as a simple benthic formulation and extended parameterizations of phytoplankton growth, calcification and detritus remineralisation. A full description of MEDUSA-2.0, including its additional functionality, is provided and a multi-decadal spin-up simulation (1860-2005) is performed. The biogeochemical performance of the model is evaluated using a diverse range of observational data, and MEDUSA-2.0 is assessed relative to comparable models using output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean Surface Flux Feedbacks in Recent Satellite and Model Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Clayson, C. A.

2010-01-01

Recent investigations have examined observations in an attempt to determine when and how the ocean forces the atmosphere, and vice versa. These studies focus primarily on relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies and the turbulent and radiative surface heat fluxes. It has been found that both positive and negative feedbacks, which enhance or reduce sea surface temperature anomaly amplitudes, can be generated through changes in the surface boundary layer. Consequent changes in sea surface temperature act to change boundary layer characteristics through changes in static stability or turbulent fluxes. Previous studies over the global oceans have used coarse-resolution observational and model products such as ICOADS and the NCEP Reanalysis. This study focuses on documenting the atmosphere ocean feedbacks that exist in recently produced higher resolution products, namely the SeaFlux v1.0 product and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). It has been noted in recent studies that evidence of oceanic forcing of the atmosphere exists on smaller scales than the usually more dominant atmospheric forcing of the ocean, particularly in higher latitudes. It is expected that use of these higher resolution products will allow for a more comprehensive description of these small-scale ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The SeaFlux intercomparisons have revealed large scatter between various surface flux climatologies. This study also investigates the uncertainty in surface flux feedbacks based on several of these recent satellite based climatologies

Configuration and Assessment of the GISS ModelE2 Contributions to the CMIP5 Archive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Max; Nazarenko, Larissa; Ruedy, Reto; Russell, Gary L.; Aleinov, Igor; Bauer, Mike; Bauer, Susanne E.; Bhat, Maharaj K.; Bleck, Rainer;

Indian Ocean zonal mode activity in 20th century observations and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sendelbeck, Anja; Mölg, Thomas

2016-04-01

The Indian Ocean zonal mode (IOZM) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system with anomalous cooling in the east, warming in the west and easterly wind anomalies, resulting in a complete reversal of the climatological zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The IOZM has a strong influence on East African climate by causing anomalously strong October - December (OND) precipitation. Using observational data and historical CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) model output, the September - November (SON) dipole mode index (DMI), OND East African precipitation and SON zonal wind index (ZWI) are calculated. We pay particular attention to detrending SSTs for calculating the DMI, which seems to have been neglected in some published research. The ZWI is defined as the area-averaged zonal wind component at 850 hPa over the central Indian Ocean. Regression analysis is used to evaluate the models' capability to represent the IOZM and its impact on east African climate between 1948 and 2005. Simple correlations are calculated between SST, zonal wind and precipitation to show their interdependence. High correlation in models implies a good representation of the influence of IOZM on East African climate variability and our goal is to detect the models with the highest correlation coefficients. In future research, these model data might be used to investigate the impact of IOZM on the East African climate variability in the late 20's century with regard to anthropogenic causes and internal variability.

Uncertainties in Coastal Ocean Color Products: Impacts of Spatial Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pahlevan, Nima; Sarkar, Sudipta; Franz, Bryan A.

2016-01-01

With increasing demands for ocean color (OC) products with improved accuracy and well characterized, per-retrieval uncertainty budgets, it is vital to decompose overall estimated errors into their primary components. Amongst various contributing elements (e.g., instrument calibration, atmospheric correction, inversion algorithms) in the uncertainty of an OC observation, less attention has been paid to uncertainties associated with spatial sampling. In this paper, we simulate MODIS (aboard both Aqua and Terra) and VIIRS OC products using 30 m resolution OC products derived from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat-8, to examine impacts of spatial sampling on both cross-sensor product intercomparisons and in-situ validations of R(sub rs) products in coastal waters. Various OLI OC products representing different productivity levels and in-water spatial features were scanned for one full orbital-repeat cycle of each ocean color satellite. While some view-angle dependent differences in simulated Aqua-MODIS and VIIRS were observed, the average uncertainties (absolute) in product intercomparisons (due to differences in spatial sampling) at regional scales are found to be 1.8%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 4.3%, 2.7%, 1.8%, and 4% for the R(sub rs)(443), R(sub rs)(482), R(sub rs)(561), R(sub rs)(655), Chla, K(sub d)(482), and b(sub bp)(655) products, respectively. It is also found that, depending on in-water spatial variability and the sensor's footprint size, the errors for an in-situ validation station in coastal areas can reach as high as +/- 18%. We conclude that a) expected biases induced by the spatial sampling in product intercomparisons are mitigated when products are averaged over at least 7 km × 7 km areas, b) VIIRS observations, with improved consistency in cross-track spatial sampling, yield more precise calibration/validation statistics than that of MODIS, and c) use of a single pixel centered on in-situ coastal stations provides an optimal sampling size for validation efforts. These findings will have implications for enhancing our understanding of uncertainties in ocean color retrievals and for planning of future ocean color missions and the associated calibration/validation exercises.

ENSO Transition Asymmetry: Internal and External Causes and Intermodel Diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Soon-Il; Kim, Ji-Won

2018-05-01

El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña, but the opposite case rarely happens. Here we explore a mechanism for such an asymmetrical transition and its future changes. Internally, the asymmetrical response of upper ocean waves against surface wind stress anomaly exerts a primary cause of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition asymmetry. Externally, the asymmetrical capacitor effects of both Indian and Atlantic Oceans play some roles in driving the ENSO transition asymmetry via the interbasin interactions. The historical runs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 show that the intermodel transition asymmetry is significantly correlated with the intermodel asymmetry in ocean wave response to surface wind forcing but not with that in the interbasin interactions. In addition, the El Niño-to-La Niña transition tendency was weaker in moderate global warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) while slightly enhanced in strong warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Similar changes also appeared in the asymmetrical response of ocean waves against the surface wind forcing.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

2017-08-01

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

Impact of the GeoMIP G1 sunshade geoengineering experiment on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yu; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Ji, Duoying; Phipps, Steven J.; Lenton, Andrew; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Zhao, Liyun

2017-03-01

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (˜0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (˜0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm-2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1, relative to piControl, it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation. Volume 6; Special Topics in Ocean Optics Protocols and Appendices; Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, J. L. (Editor); Fargion, Giulietta S. (Editor); McClain, Charles R. (Editor)

2003-01-01

This document stipulates protocols for measuring bio-optical and radiometric data for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities and algorithm development. The document is organized into 6 separate volumes as Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation, Revision 4. Volume I: Introduction, Background and Conventions; Volume II: Instrument Specifications, Characterization and Calibration; Volume III: Radiometric Measurements and Data Analysis Methods; Volume IV: Inherent Optical Properties: Instruments, Characterization, Field Measurements and Data Analysis Protocols; Volume V: Biogeochemical and Bio-Optical Measurements and Data Analysis Methods; Volume VI: Special Topics in Ocean Optics Protocols and Appendices. The earlier version of Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation, Revision 3 (Mueller and Fargion 2002, Volumes 1 and 2) is entirely superseded by the six volumes of Revision 4 listed above.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallée, J.-B.; Shuckburgh, E.; Bruneau, N.; Meijers, A. J. S.; Bracegirdle, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Roy, T.

2013-04-01

The ability of the models contributing to the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to represent the Southern Ocean hydrological properties and its overturning is investigated in a water mass framework. Models have a consistent warm and light bias spread over the entire water column. The greatest bias occurs in the ventilated layers, which are volumetrically dominated by mode and intermediate layers. The ventilated layers have been observed to have a strong fingerprint of climate change and to impact climate by sequestrating a significant amount of heat and carbon dioxide. The mode water layer is poorly represented in the models and both mode and intermediate water have a significant fresh bias. Under increased radiative forcing, models simulate a warming and lightening of the entire water column, which is again greatest in the ventilated layers, highlighting the importance of these layers for propagating the climate signal into the deep ocean. While the intensity of the water mass overturning is relatively consistent between models, when compared to observation-based reconstructions, they exhibit a slightly larger rate of overturning at shallow to intermediate depths, and a slower rate of overturning deeper in the water column. Under increased radiative forcing, atmospheric fluxes increase the rate of simulated upper cell overturning, but this increase is counterbalanced by diapycnal fluxes, including mixed-layer horizontal mixing, and mostly vanishes.

Advection of sulfur dioxide over the western Atlantic Ocean during CITE 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thornton, D. C.; Bandy, A. R.; Beltz, N.; Driedger, A. R., III; Ferek, R.

1993-01-01

During the NASA Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation 3 sulfur intercomparison over the western Atlantic Ocean, five techniques for the determination of sulfur dioxide were evaluated. The response times of the techniques varied from 3 to 30 min. Based on the ensemble of measurements reported, it was clear that advection of SO2 from the North American continent occurred in the boundary layer (altitude less than 1 km) with only one exception. The vertical distribution of SO2 above the boundary layer for the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean was remarkably similar duing this experiment.

Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Using Sound Speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Johnson, M. A.

2002-05-01

The monthly and annual means from three Arctic ocean - sea ice climate model simulations are compared for the period 1979-1997. Sound speed is used to integrate model outputs of temperature and salinity along a section between Barrow and Franz Josef Land. A statistical approach is used to test for differences among the three models for two basic data subsets. We integrated and then analyzed an upper layer between 2 m - 50 m, and also a deep layer from 500 m to the bottom. The deep layer is characterized by low time-variability. No high-frequency signals appear in the deep layer having been filtered out in the upper layer. There is no seasonal signal in the deep layer and the monthly means insignificantly oscillate about the long-period mean. For the deep ocean the long-period mean can be considered quasi-constant, at least within the 19 year period of our analysis. Thus we assumed that the deep ocean would be the best choice for comparing the means of the model outputs. The upper (mixed) layer was chosen to contrast the deep layer dynamics. There are distinct seasonal and interannual signals in the sound speed time series in this layer. The mixed layer is a major link in the ocean - air interaction mechanism. Thus, different mean states of the upper layer in the models might cause different responses in other components of the Arctic climate system. The upper layer also strongly reflects any differences in atmosphere forcing. To compare data from the three models we have used a one-way t-test for the population mean, the Wilcoxon one-sample signed-rank test (when the requirement of normality of tested data is violated), and one-way ANOVA method and F-test to verify our hypothesis that the model outputs have the same mean sound speed. The different statistical approaches have shown that all models have different mean characteristics of the deep and upper layers of the Arctic Ocean.

Low-cost solar array project: Four absolute cavity radiometer (pyrheliometer) intercomparisons at New River, Arizona: Radiometer standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estey, R. S.; Seaman, C. H.

1981-01-01

Four detailed intercomparisons were made for a number of models of cavity-type self-calibrating radiometers (pyrheliometers). Each intercomparison consisted of simultaneous readings of pyrheliometers at 30-second intervals in runs of 10 minutes, with at least 15 runs per intercomparison. Twenty-seven instruments were in at least one intercomparison, and five were in all four. Summarized results and all raw data are provided from the intercomparisons.

Re-examining the Non-Linear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship over the Tropical Oceans

PubMed Central

Rushley, S. S.; Kim, D.; Bretherton, C. S.; Ahn, M.-S.

2018-01-01

Bretherton et al. (2004) used the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) version 5 product to derive an exponential curve that describes the relationship between precipitation and column relative humidity (CRH) over the tropical oceans. The curve, which features a precipitation pickup at a CRH of about 0.75 and a rapid increase of precipitation with CRH after the pickup, has been widely used in the studies of the tropical atmosphere. This study re-examines the moisture-precipitation relationship by using the version 7 SSM/I data, in which several biases in the previous version are corrected, and evaluates the relationship in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In the revised exponential curve derived using the updated satellite data, the precipitation pick-up occurs at a higher CRH (~0.8), and precipitation increases more slowly with CRH than in the previous curve. In most CMIP5 models, the precipitation pickup is too early due to the common model bias of overestimated (underestimated) precipitation in the dry (wet) regime. PMID:29503484

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

The Hydrological Impact of Geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tilmes, S.; Fasullo, John; Lamarque, J.-F.

2013-10-14

Abstract: The hydrologic impact of enhancing Earth’s albedo due to solar radiation management (SRM) is investigated using simulations from 12 models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). An artificial experiment is investigated, where global mean temperature is preserved at pre-industrial conditions, while atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are quadrupled. The associated reduction of downwelling surface solar radiation in a high CO2 environment leads to a reduction of global evaporation of 10% and 4% and precipitation of 6.1% and 6.3% over land and ocean, respectively. An initial reduction of latent heat flux at the surface is largely driven by reducedmore » evapotranspiration over land with instantly increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in the 4xCO2 experiment further generates an increase of global precipitation, with considerable regional changes, such as a significant precipitation reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global precipitation persists in the geoengineered experiment where temperatures are stabilized, with considerable regional rainfall deficits. Precipitation reductions that are consistent in sign across models are identified in the geoengineered experiment over monsoonal land regions of East Asia (6%), North America (7%), South America (6%) and South Africa (5%). In contrast to the 4xCO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50%, it is reduced by up to 20% in the geoengineering scenario . The reduction in heavy precipitation is more pronounced over land than over the ocean, and accompanies a stronger reduction in evaporation over land. For northern mid-latitudes, maximum precipitation reduction over land ranges from 1 to 16% for individual models. For 45-65°N, the frequency of median to high intensity precipitation in summer is strongly reduced. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes, point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.« less

Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation. Volume 4; Inherent Optical Properties: Instruments, Characterizations, Field Measurements and Data Analysis Protocols; Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, J. L. (Editor); Fargion, Giuletta S. (Editor); McClain, Charles R. (Editor); Pegau, Scott; Zaneveld, J. Ronald V.; Mitchell, B. Gregg; Kahru, Mati; Wieland, John; Stramska, Malgorzat

2003-01-01

This document stipulates protocols for measuring bio-optical and radiometric data for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities and algorithm development. The document is organized into 6 separate volumes as Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation, Revision 4. Volume I: Introduction, Background and Conventions; Volume II: Instrument Specifications, Characterization and Calibration; Volume III: Radiometric Measurements and Data Analysis Methods; Volume IV: Inherent Optical Properties: Instruments, Characterization, Field Measurements and Data Analysis Protocols; Volume V: Biogeochemical and Bio-Optical Measurements and Data Analysis Methods; Volume VI: Special Topics in Ocean Optics Protocols and Appendices. The earlier version of Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation, Revision 3 (Mueller and Fargion 2002, Volumes 1 and 2) is entirely superseded by the six volumes of Revision 4 listed above.

Characteristics of the Nordic Seas overflows in a set of Norwegian Earth System Model experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Chuncheng; Ilicak, Mehmet; Bentsen, Mats; Fer, Ilker

2016-08-01

Global ocean models with an isopycnic vertical coordinate are advantageous in representing overflows, as they do not suffer from topography-induced spurious numerical mixing commonly seen in geopotential coordinate models. In this paper, we present a quantitative diagnosis of the Nordic Seas overflows in four configurations of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) family that features an isopycnic ocean model. For intercomparison, two coupled ocean-sea ice and two fully coupled (atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice) experiments are considered. Each pair consists of a (non-eddying) 1° and a (eddy-permitting) 1/4° horizontal resolution ocean model. In all experiments, overflow waters remain dense and descend to the deep basins, entraining ambient water en route. Results from the 1/4° pair show similar behavior in the overflows, whereas the 1° pair show distinct differences, including temperature/salinity properties, volume transport (Q), and large scale features such as the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The volume transport of the overflows and degree of entrainment are underestimated in the 1° experiments, whereas in the 1/4° experiments, there is a two-fold downstream increase in Q, which matches observations well. In contrast to the 1/4° experiments, the coarse 1° experiments do not capture the inclined isopycnals of the overflows or the western boundary current off the Flemish Cap. In all experiments, the pathway of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water is misrepresented: a major fraction of the overflow proceeds southward into the West European Basin, instead of turning westward into the Irminger Sea. This discrepancy is attributed to excessive production of Labrador Sea Water in the model. The mean state and variability of the Nordic Seas overflows have significant consequences on the response of the AMOC, hence their correct representations are of vital importance in global ocean and climate modelling.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Observed Regional Climate Variability and Evaluating Model Performance: Focus on North African Rainfall in CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

North (N.) African rainfall is characterized by dramatic interannual to decadal variability with serious socio-economic ramifications. The Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM) region experienced a dramatic shift to persistent drought by the late 1960s, while the Horn of Africa (HOA) underwent drying since the 1990s. Large disagreementregarding the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African hydrologic variability exists among modeling studies, leading to notable spread in Sahel summer rainfall projections for this century among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall and establish a benchmark for model evaluation, a statistical method, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, is validated and applied to observations and a control run from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study represents the first time that the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall were evaluated and systematically compared between observations and model simulations. CESM and the observations consistently agree that tropical oceanic modes are the dominant controls of N. African rainfall. During the monsoon season, CESM and observations agree that an anomalously warm eastern tropical Pacific shifts the Walker Circulation eastward, with its descending branch supporting Sahel drying. CESM and the observations concur that a warmer tropical eastern Atlantic favors a southward-shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone, which intensifies WAM monsoonal rainfall. An observed reduction in Sahel rainfall accompanies this enhanced WAM rainfall, yet is confined to the Atlantic in CESM. During the short rains, both observations and CESM indicate that a positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode [anomalously warm (cold) in western (eastern) Indian] enhances HOA rainfall. The observed IOD impacts are limited to the short rains, while the simulated impacts are year-round.

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvathi, V.; Suresh, I.; Lengaigne, M.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.

2017-10-01

The response of the Indian winter monsoon to climate change has received considerably less attention than that of the summer monsoon. We show here that all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models display a consistent reduction (of 6.5% for Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 3.5% for 4.5, on an average) of the winter monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea at the end of 21st century. This projected reduction weakens but remains robust when corrected for overestimated winter Arabian Sea winds in CMIP5. This weakening is driven by a reduction in the interhemispheric sea level pressure gradient resulting from enhanced warming of the dry Arabian Peninsula relative to the southern Indian Ocean. The wind weakening reduces winter oceanic heat losses to the atmosphere and deepening of convective mixed layer in the northern Arabian Sea and hence can potentially inhibit the seasonal chlorophyll bloom that contributes substantially to the Arabian Sea annual productivity.

Bio-Optical Measurement and Modeling of the California Current and Polar Oceans. Chapter 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, B. Greg

2001-01-01

This Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project contract supports in situ ocean optical observations in the California Current, Southern Ocean, Indian Ocean as well as merger of other in situ data sets we have collected on various global cruises supported by separate grants or contracts. The principal goals of our research are to validate standard or experimental products through detailed bio-optical and biogeochemical measurements, and to combine ocean optical observations with advanced radiative transfer modeling to contribute to satellite vicarious radiometric calibration and advanced algorithm development. In collaboration with major oceanographic ship-based observation programs funded by various agencies (CalCOFI, US JGOFS, NOAA AMLR, INDOEX and Japan/East Sea) our SIMBIOS effort has resulted in data from diverse bio-optical provinces. For these global deployments we generate a high-quality, methodologically consistent, data set encompassing a wide-range of oceanic conditions. Global data collected in recent years have been integrated with our on-going CalCOFI database and have been used to evaluate Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) algorithms and to carry out validation studies. The combined database we have assembled now comprises more than 700 stations and includes observations for the clearest oligotrophic waters, highly eutrophic blooms, red-tides and coastal case two conditions. The data has been used to validate water-leaving radiance estimated with SeaWiFS as well as bio optical algorithms for chlorophyll pigments. The comprehensive data is utilized for development of experimental algorithms (e.g., high-low latitude pigment transition, phytoplankton absorption, and cDOM).

Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

2012-12-01

The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

Model Intercomparison of CCN-Limited Arctic Clouds During ASCOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Robin; Dearden, Chris; Dimetrelos, Antonios; Eirund, Gesa; Possner, Anna; Raatikainen, Tomi; Loewe, Katharina; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Connolly, Paul; Ekman, Annica; Hoose, Corinna; Laaksonen, Ari; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Kolmonen, Pekka; Saponaro, Giulia; Field, Paul; Carlsaw, Ken

2017-04-01

Future decreases in Arctic sea ice are expected to increase fluxes of aerosol and precursor gases from the open ocean surface within the Arctic. The resulting increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations would be expected to result in increased cloud albedo (Struthers et al, 2011), leading to potentially large changes in radiative forcings. However, Browse et al. (2014) have shown that these increases in condensable material could also result in the growth of existing particles to sizes where they are more efficiently removed by wet deposition in drizzling stratocumulus clouds, ultimately decreasing CCN concentrations in the high Arctic. Their study was limited in that it did not simulate alterations of dynamics or cloud properties due to either changes in heat and moisture fluxes following sea­-ice loss or changing aerosol concentrations. Taken together, these results show that significant uncertainties remain in trying to quantify aerosol­-cloud processes in the Arctic system. The current representation of these processes in global climate models is most likely insufficient to realistically simulate long­-term changes. In order to better understand the microphysical processes currently governing Arctic clouds, we perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic (>80N) clouds observed during the 2008 ASCOS campaign. The intercomparison includes results from three large eddy simulation models (UCLALES-SALSA, COSMO-LES, and MIMICA) and three numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-NWP, WRF, and UM-CASIM). The results of these experiments will be used as a basis for sensitivity studies on the impact of sea-ice loss on Arctic clouds through changes in aerosol and precursor emissions as well as changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Browse, J., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14(14), 7543-7557, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014. Struthers, H., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11(7), 3459-3477, doi:10.5194/acp-11-3459-2011, 2011.

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ödalen, Malin; Nycander, Jonas; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Brodeau, Laurent; Ridgwell, Andy

2018-03-01

During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90-100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment in which we investigate the capacity for increased carbon storage by artificially maximising the efficiency of the biological pump in our ensemble members. We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon pumps in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable. The drawdown experiment highlights the importance of the strength of the biological pump in the control state for model studies of increased biological efficiency.

CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

2018-03-01

This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

Weakening of the relationship between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the ENSO in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jun-Young; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-04-01

This study reports, on the 20th century the relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was weaker then late 1990s. We shows that 15-yr moving correlation between the Nino3.4 index during the December to February (DJF) and IOD index during the September to November (SON) season. At this results we divided previous decades (1979 to 1998) and late decades (1999 to 2014). The correlation coefficient was 0.64 in the previous decades and 0.21 in the late decades. Late decades was suddenly weaker then previous decades. Because, there is a big difference between previous decades and late decades in the ENSO regressed precipitation anomaly spatial distribution during the El Nino developing the MAM season. There was existed positive precipitation anomalies over the off-equatorial western Pacific. It was induced the cross-equatorial southerly flow over the eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent. It means cross-equatorial southerly flow was key point to understanding ENSO-IOD coupling system. In addition, using the climate models participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports the observational results.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lunt, D. J.; Pound, M.;

The seasonal cycle of pCO2 and CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Precious Mongwe, N.; Vichi, Marcello; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.

2018-05-01

The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as a major sink of CO2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation products for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is a rigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine the competing roles of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as drivers of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 in the Southern Ocean to explain the mechanistic basis for the seasonal biases in CMIP5 models. We find that despite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the mean annual fluxes, the intra-model homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 is greater than observational products. FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., group-SST and group-DIC. Group-SST models show an exaggeration of the seasonal rates of change of sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during the cooling and warming peaks. These higher-than-observed rates of change of SST tip the control of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 and FCO2 towards SST and result in a divergence between the observed and modeled seasonal cycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzed models (9 out of 10) show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namely NorESM1-ME, HadGEM-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models) compensate for the solubility bias because of their overly exaggerated primary production, such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate the seasonal cycle of FCO2.

ISMIP6: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, S.

2015-01-01

ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) targets the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the Future Sea Level Grand Challenges of the WCRP (World Climate Research Program). Primary goal is to provide future sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty. Secondary goal is to investigate feedback due to dynamic ice sheet models. Experiment design uses and augment the existing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) experiments. Additonal MIP (Model Intercomparison Project)- specific experiments will be designed for ISM (Ice Sheet Model). Effort builds on the Ice2sea, SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) and COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) efforts.

Bidirectional reflectance function in coastal waters: modeling and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilerson, Alex; Hlaing, Soe; Harmel, Tristan; Tonizzo, Alberto; Arnone, Robert; Weidemann, Alan; Ahmed, Samir

2011-11-01

The current operational algorithm for the correction of bidirectional effects from the satellite ocean color data is optimized for typical oceanic waters. However, versions of bidirectional reflectance correction algorithms, specifically tuned for typical coastal waters and other case 2 conditions, are particularly needed to improve the overall quality of those data. In order to analyze the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of case 2 waters, a dataset of typical remote sensing reflectances was generated through radiative transfer simulations for a large range of viewing and illumination geometries. Based on this simulated dataset, a case 2 water focused remote sensing reflectance model is proposed to correct above-water and satellite water leaving radiance data for bidirectional effects. The proposed model is first validated with a one year time series of in situ above-water measurements acquired by collocated multi- and hyperspectral radiometers which have different viewing geometries installed at the Long Island Sound Coastal Observatory (LISCO). Match-ups and intercomparisons performed on these concurrent measurements show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the algorithm currently in use at all wavelengths.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Calov, Reinhard; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Greve, Ralf; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Larour, Eric; Lipscomb, William H.; Le clec'h, Sébastien; Lee, Victoria; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Payne, Antony J.; Rodehacke, Christian; Rückamp, Martin; Saito, Fuyuki; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Sun, Sainan; van de Wal, Roderik; Ziemen, Florian A.

2018-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; ...

2018-04-19

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Climate Change Response of Ocean Net Primary Production (NPP) and Export Production (EP) Regulated by Stratification Increases in The CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, W.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.

2014-12-01

Ocean warming due to rising atmospheric CO2 has increasing impacts on ocean ecosystems by modifying the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and by altering ocean circulation and stratification. We explore ocean NPP and EP changes at the global scale with simulations performed in the framework of the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably by the end of the century for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, although models differ in their significantly in their direct temperature impacts on production and remineralization. The Earth system models used here project similar NPP trends albeit the magnitudes vary substantially. In general, projected changes in the 2090s for NPP range between -2.3 to -16.2% while export production reach -7 to -18% relative to 1990s. This is accompanied by increased stratification by 17-30%. Results indicate that globally reduced NPP is closely related to increased ocean stratification (R2=0.78). This is especially the case for global export production, that seems to be mostly controlled by the increased stratification (R2=0.95). We also identify phytoplankton community impacts on these patterns, that vary across the models. The negative response of NPP to climate change may be through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. There are large disagreements among the CMIP5 models in terms of simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations for the 1990s, and their trends over time with climate change. In addition, potentially important marine biogeochemical feedbacks on the climate system were not well represented in the CMIP5 models, including important feedbacks with aerosol deposition and the marine iron cycle, and feedbacks involving the oxygen minimum zones and the marine nitrogen cycle. Thus, these substantial reductions in primary productivity and export production over the 21st century simulated under the RCP 8.5 scenario were likely conservative estimates, and may need to be revised as marine biogeochemistry in Earth System Models (ESMs) continues to be developed.

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

2014-06-01

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. © 2013 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

1994-05-01

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.

MVL spatiotemporal analysis for model intercomparison in EPS: application to the DEMETER multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, J.; Primo, C.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Rodríguez, M. A.

2009-08-01

In a recent paper, Gutiérrez et al. (Nonlinear Process Geophys 15(1):109-114, 2008) introduced a new characterization of spatiotemporal error growth—the so called mean-variance logarithmic (MVL) diagram—and applied it to study ensemble prediction systems (EPS); in particular, they analyzed single-model ensembles obtained by perturbing the initial conditions. In the present work, the MVL diagram is applied to multi-model ensembles analyzing also the effect of model formulation differences. To this aim, the MVL diagram is systematically applied to the multi-model ensemble produced in the EU-funded DEMETER project. It is shown that the shared building blocks (atmospheric and ocean components) impose similar dynamics among different models and, thus, contribute to poorly sampling the model formulation uncertainty. This dynamical similarity should be taken into account, at least as a pre-screening process, before applying any objective weighting method.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

2016-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Intercomparison of Air-Sea Fluxes in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, J.; Weller, R. A.; Farrar, J. T.; Tandon, A.

2016-02-01

Heat and momentum exchange between the air and sea in the Bay of Bengal is an important driver of atmospheric convection during the Asian Monsoon. Warm sea surface temperatures resulting from salinity stratified shallow mixed layers trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms. In this study, we compare atmospheric reanalysis flux products to air-sea flux values calculated from shipboard observations from four cruises and an air-sea flux mooring in the Bay of Bengal as part of the Air-Sea Interactions in the Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI) experiment. Comparisons with months of mooring data show that most long timescale reanalysis error arises from the overestimation of longwave and shortwave radiation. Ship observations and select data from the air-sea flux mooring reveals significant errors on shorter timescales (2-4 weeks) which are greatly influenced by errors in shortwave radiation and latent and sensible heat. During these shorter periods, the reanalyses fail to properly show sharp decreases in air temperature, humidity, and shortwave radiation associated with mesoscale convective systems. Simulations with the Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP) model show upper ocean mixing and deepening mixed layers during these events that effect the long term upper ocean stratification. Mesoscale convective systems associated with cloudy skies and cold and dry air can reduce net heat into the ocean for minutes to a few days, significantly effecting air-sea heat transfer, upper ocean stratification, and ocean surface temperature and salinity.

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seferian, Roland; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent; Resplandy, Laure; Orr, James C.; Marti, Olivier; Dunne, John P.; Christian, James R.; Doney, Scott C.; Ilyina, Tatiana;

Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans: Observation- and Model-Based Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Alex; Altieri, Katye; Okin, Greg; Dentener, Frank; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Kanakidou, Maria; Sarin, Manmohan; Duce, Robert; Galloway, Jim; Keene, Bill; Singh, Arvind; Zamora, Lauren; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Hsu, Shih-Chieh

2014-05-01

The reactive nitrogen (Nr) burden of the atmosphere has been increased by a factor of 3-4 by anthropogenic activity since the industrial revolution. This has led to large increases in the deposition of nitrate and ammonium to the surface waters of the open ocean, particularly downwind of major human population centres, such as those in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia. In oligotrophic waters, this deposition has the potential to significantly impact marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce effective models of reactive nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition (including deposition to the land surface). The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) recently completed a multi-model analysis of global N deposition, including comparisons to wet deposition observations from three regional networks in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia (Lamarque et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7977-8018, 2013). No similar datasets exist which would allow observation - model comparisons of wet deposition for the open oceans, because long-term wet deposition records are available for only a handful of remote island sites and rain collection over the open ocean itself is very difficult. In this work we attempt instead to use ~2600 observations of aerosol nitrate and ammonium concentrations, acquired chiefly from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, to assess the ACCMIP N deposition fields over the remote ocean. This database is non-uniformly distributed in time and space. We selected four ocean regions (the eastern North Atlantic, the South Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) where we considered the density and distribution of observational data is sufficient to provide effective comparison to the model ensemble. Two of these regions are adjacent to the land networks used in the ACCMIP comparison, while the others are far removed from land regions for which the model output has been rigorously compared to observational data. Here we will present calculated dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium from average observed concentrations in these regions, using deposition velocities of 0.9 cm/s and 0.1 cm/s respectively, and the results of a comparison of these fluxes to the ACCMIP model ensemble product. Uncertainties in the comparison and potential sources of bias between the observations and model will be discussed.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 1. COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH SHORT-TERM MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, one hemispheric and one global scale model participated in an atmospheric mercury modelling intercomparison study. Model-predicted concentrations in ambient air were comp...

Multi-model trends in East African rainfall associated with increased CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHugh, Maurice J.

2005-01-01

Nineteen coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP) were used to analyze future rainfall conditions over East Africa under enhanced CO2 conditions. 80 year control runs of these models indicated that four models produced mean annual rainfall distributions closely resembling climatological means and all four models had normalized root mean square errors well within the bounds of observed variability. East African (10°N-20°S, 25°-50°E) rainfall data from transient 80 year experiments which featured CO2 increases of 1% per year were compared with 80 year control simulations. Results indicate enhanced annual and seasonal rainfall rates, and increased extreme wet period frequency. These results indicate that East Africa may face a future in which mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and Rift Valley fever proliferate resulting from increased CO2.

Hydrological signal in polar motion excitation from a combination of geophysical and gravimetric series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, Jolanta; Winska, Malgorzata; Salstein, David A.

2015-08-01

One can estimate the hydrological signal in polar motion excitation as a residual, namely the difference between observed geodetic excitation functions (Geodetic Angular Momentum, GAM) and the sum of Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and Oceanic Angular Momentum (OAM).The aim of this study is to find the optimal model and results for hydrological excitation functions in terms of their agreement with the computed difference between GAM and atmospheric and oceanic signals.The atmospheric and oceanic model-based data that we use in this study are the geophysical excitation functions of AAM, OAM available from the Special Bureaus for the Atmosphere and Oceans of the Geophysical Global Fluids Center (GGFC) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). For the atmosphere and ocean, these functions are based on the mass and motion fields of the fluids.Global models of land hydrology are used to estimate hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (Hydrological Angular Momentum - HAM). These HAM series are the mass of water substance determined from the various types of land-based hydrological reservoirs. In addition the HAM are estimated from spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth’s gravity field. We use several sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the Earth’s gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data.Finally, these several different HAM series are used to determine the best model of hydrological excitation of polar motion. The model is found by looking for the combination of these series that fits the geodetic residuals using the least-square method.In addition, we will access model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, fifth experiment (CMIP-5) to examine atmospheric excitations from the twentieth century and estimates for the twenty-first century to see the possible signals and trends of these excitation series to help understand the potential range in the derived of hydrological excitation results.

Three Dimensional Modeling Analysis of the Transpacific Transport of Aerosols During PACDEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, G. R.; Adhikary, B.; Hatch, C.; Kulkarni, S.; Moen, J.; Mena, M.

2007-12-01

Mineral dust and aerosols emitted from Asia are known to traverse long distances across the Pacific Ocean and can reach North America within a few days. A pilot field study, the PACific Dust Experiment (PACDEX), was carried out in April and May of 2007, during the peak East Asian dust emission season. The NSF/NCAR-HIAPER (High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) platform allowed for sampling the evolution of mineral aerosol/pollution plumes and their physical and chemical characteristics as they traverse the Pacific Ocean and interact with the Pacific cloud systems en route to North America in both the upper and lower troposphere. A comprehensive 3-dimensional regional-scale model developed at The University of Iowa (Sulfur Transport dEposition Model, STEM) has been used for the analysis of aerosol interactions to help define key measurement strategies during the mission and to help interpret observations from the HIAPER platform. In this study we will present model aerosol distribution inter-comparison with cloud fields and aircraft observations. Model analysis provides further insight into cloud/pollution/dust interactions as East Asian emissions transit the Pacific Ocean en route to North America. Trajectory analysis and emission markers are used to help understand the air mass history and aerosol aging processes of the aerosols sampled by the HIAPER platform. Estimates of the fluxes of aerosol dust, BC and sulfate due to transpacific transport will also be presented.

The Aquarius Salinity Product: Intercomparison with SMOS and In-Situ Observations and Importance of the Ocean Surface Roughness Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meissner, Thomas; Hilburn, Kyle; Wentz, Frank; Gentemann, Chelle

2013-04-01

The Aquarius L-band radiometer/scatterometer system is designed to provide monthly salinity maps at 150 km spatial scale to an accuracy of 0.2 psu. The sensor was launched on June 10, 2011, aboard the Argentine CONAE SAC-D spacecraft. The L-band radiometers and the scatterometer have been taking science data observations since August 25, 2011. This first part of the presentation gives an overview over the major features of the Version 2.1 Aquarius Level 2 salinity retrieval algorithm: 1. Antenna pattern correction: spillover and cross polarization contamination. 2. Correction for the drift of the Aquarius internal calibration system. 3. Correction for intruding celestial radiation, foremost from the galaxy. 4. Correction for effects of the wind roughened ocean surface. We then present a thorough validation study for the salinity product, which consists in a 3-way intercomparison between Aquarius, SMOS and in-situ buoy salinity measurements. The Aquarius - buy comparison shows that that the Aquarius Version 2.1 salinity product is very close to meet the aforementioned mission requirement of 0.2 psu. We demonstrate that in order to meet this accuracy it is crucial to use the L-band scatterometer for correcting effects from the wind roughened ocean surface, which turns out to be the major driver in the salinity retrieval uncertainty budget. A surface roughness correction algorithm that is based solely on auxiliary input of wind fields from numerical weather prediction models (e.g. NCEP, ECMWF) is not sufficient to meet the stringent Aquarius mission requirement, especially at wind speeds above 10 m/s. We show that presence of the Aquarius L-band scatterometer together with the L-band radiometer allows the retrieval of an Aquarius wind speed product whose accuracy matches or exceeds that of other common ocean wind speeds (WindSat, SSMIS). By comparing SMOS and Aquarius salinity fields with the in-situ observations we assess the importance of the roughness correction and the presence of the L-band scatterometer, which is a major difference between the two missions.

Comparison of Two Global Ocean Reanalyses, NRL Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) and U. Maryland Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.; Metzger, E. J.; Hogan, P. J.; Smedstad, O. M.

2017-12-01

The Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory recently completed a 23-year (1993-2015) coupled ocean-sea ice reanalysis forced by NCEP CFS reanalysis fluxes. The reanalysis uses the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) framework of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation 3D Var system (NCODA). The ocean model has 41 layers and an equatorial resolution of 0.08° (8.8 km) on a tri-polar grid with the sea ice model on the same grid that reduces to 3.5 km at the North Pole. Sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and temperature-salinity profile data are assimilated into the ocean every day. The SSH anomalies are converted into synthetic profiles of temperature and salinity prior to assimilation. Incremental analysis updating of geostrophically balanced increments is performed over a 6-hour insertion window. Sea ice concentration is assimilated into the sea ice model every day. Following the lead of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), the monthly mean upper ocean heat and salt content from the surface to 300 m, 700m and 1500 m, the mixed layer depth, the depth of the 20°C isotherm, the steric sea surface height and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the GOFS reanalysis and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA 3.3.1) eddy-permitting reanalysis have been compared on a global uniform 0.5° grid. The differences between the two ocean reanalyses in heat and salt content increase with increasing integration depth. Globally, GOFS trends to be colder than SODA at all depth. Warming trends are observed at all depths over the 23 year period. The correlation of the upper ocean heat content is significant above 700 m. Prior to 2004, differences in the data assimilated lead to larger biases. The GOFS reanalysis assimilates SSH as profile data, while SODA doesn't. Large differences are found in the Western Boundary Currents, Southern Ocean and equatorial regions. In the Indian Ocean, the Equatorial Counter Current extends to far to the east and the subsurface flow in the thermocline is too weak in GOFS. The 20°C isotherm is biased 2 m shallow in SODA compared to GOFS, but the monthly anomalies in the depth are highly correlated.

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

There has been a long tradition of estimating the amount of climate change that would result from various carbon dioxide emission or concentration scenarios but there has been relatively little quantitative analysis of how long it takes to feel the consequences of an individual carbon dioxide emission. Using conjoined results of recent carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects, we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6 to 30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. To characterize the carbon cycle uncertainty associated with the global temperature response to a carbon dioxide emission today, we use fits to the time series of carbon dioxide concentrations from a CO2-impulse response function model intercomparison project's 15 ensemble members (1). To characterize both the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and in the thermal inertia of the climate system, we use fits to the time series of global temperature change from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5; 2) abrupt4xco2 experiment's 20 ensemble's members separating the effects of each uncertainty factors using one of two simple physical models for each CMIP5 climate model. This yields 6,000 possible combinations of these three factors using a standard convolution integral approach. Our results indicate that benefits of avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While the relevant time lags imposed by the climate system are substantially shorter than a human lifetime, they are substantially longer than the typical political election cycle, making the delay and its associated uncertainties both economically and politically significant. References: 1. Joos F et al. (2013) Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2793-2825. 2. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485-498.

Southern Ocean Convection and tropical telleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

We show that Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures in the latest generation of Earth System Models exhibit two major modes of variation, one driven by deep convection, the other by tropical variability. We perform a CMIP5 model intercomparison to understand why different climate models represent SO variability so differently in long, control simulations. We show that multiyear variability in Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can in turn influence oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropics on short (atmospheric) time-scales. We argue that the strength and pattern of SO-tropical teleconnections depends on the intensity of SO deep convection. Periodic convection in the SO is a feature of most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al., 2014). Models show a wide distribution in the spatial extent, periodicity and intensity of their SO convection, with some models convecting most of the time, and some showing very little convection. In a highly convective coupled model, we find that multidecadal variability in SO and global SSTs, as well as SO heat storage are driven by Weddell Sea convective variability, with convective decades relatively warm due to the heat released from the deep southern ocean and non-convective decades cold due to the subsurface storage of heat. Furthermore, pulses of SO convection drive SST and sea ice variations, influencing absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radiation, wind, cloud and precipitation patterns, with climatic implications for the low latitudes via fast atmospheric teleconnections. We suggest that these high-low latitude teleconnection mechanisms are relevant for understanding hiatus decades. Additionally, Southern Ocean deep convection varied significantly during past, natural climate changes such as during the last deglaciation. Weddell Sea open convection was recently weakened, likely as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing and the resulting surface freshening. Our study opens up the tantalizing possibility that such large-scale changes in SO deep convection might have tropical and indeed global implications via atmospheric teleconnections. We advocate the collection of both paleo and modern proxies that can verify these model-derived mechanisms and global teleconnections.

A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauritzen, P. H.; Ullrich, P. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Bosler, P. A.; Calhoun, D.; Conley, A. J.; Enomoto, T.; Dong, L.; Dubey, S.; Guba, O.; Hansen, A. B.; Kaas, E.; Kent, J.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Prather, M. J.; Reinert, D.; Shashkin, V. V.; Skamarock, W. C.; Sørensen, B.; Taylor, M. A.; Tolstykh, M. A.

2013-09-01

Recently, a standard test case suite for 2-D linear transport on the sphere was proposed to assess important aspects of accuracy in geophysical fluid dynamics with a "minimal" set of idealized model configurations/runs/diagnostics. Here we present results from 19 state-of-the-art transport scheme formulations based on finite-difference/finite-volume methods as well as emerging (in the context of atmospheric/oceanographic sciences) Galerkin methods. Discretization grids range from traditional regular latitude-longitude grids to more isotropic domain discretizations such as icosahedral and cubed-sphere tessellations of the sphere. The schemes are evaluated using a wide range of diagnostics in idealized flow environments. Accuracy is assessed in single- and two-tracer configurations using conventional error norms as well as novel diagnostics designed for climate and climate-chemistry applications. In addition, algorithmic considerations that may be important for computational efficiency are reported on. The latter is inevitably computing platform dependent, The ensemble of results from a wide variety of schemes presented here helps shed light on the ability of the test case suite diagnostics and flow settings to discriminate between algorithms and provide insights into accuracy in the context of global atmospheric/ocean modeling. A library of benchmark results is provided to facilitate scheme intercomparison and model development. Simple software and data-sets are made available to facilitate the process of model evaluation and scheme intercomparison.

A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauritzen, P. H.; Ullrich, P. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Bosler, P. A.; Calhoun, D.; Conley, A. J.; Enomoto, T.; Dong, L.; Dubey, S.; Guba, O.; Hansen, A. B.; Kaas, E.; Kent, J.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Prather, M. J.; Reinert, D.; Shashkin, V. V.; Skamarock, W. C.; Sørensen, B.; Taylor, M. A.; Tolstykh, M. A.

2014-01-01

Recently, a standard test case suite for 2-D linear transport on the sphere was proposed to assess important aspects of accuracy in geophysical fluid dynamics with a "minimal" set of idealized model configurations/runs/diagnostics. Here we present results from 19 state-of-the-art transport scheme formulations based on finite-difference/finite-volume methods as well as emerging (in the context of atmospheric/oceanographic sciences) Galerkin methods. Discretization grids range from traditional regular latitude-longitude grids to more isotropic domain discretizations such as icosahedral and cubed-sphere tessellations of the sphere. The schemes are evaluated using a wide range of diagnostics in idealized flow environments. Accuracy is assessed in single- and two-tracer configurations using conventional error norms as well as novel diagnostics designed for climate and climate-chemistry applications. In addition, algorithmic considerations that may be important for computational efficiency are reported on. The latter is inevitably computing platform dependent. The ensemble of results from a wide variety of schemes presented here helps shed light on the ability of the test case suite diagnostics and flow settings to discriminate between algorithms and provide insights into accuracy in the context of global atmospheric/ocean modeling. A library of benchmark results is provided to facilitate scheme intercomparison and model development. Simple software and data sets are made available to facilitate the process of model evaluation and scheme intercomparison.

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branstator, Grant; Teng, Haiyan

2012-06-01

To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model-to-model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

Results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Model Initialisation Experiments ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, H.; Nowicki, S.; Edwards, T.; Beckley, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Aschwanden, A.; Calov, R.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Golledge, N. R.; Gregory, J. M.; Greve, R.; Humbert, A.; Huybrechts, P.; Larour, E. Y.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Le ´h, S.; Lee, V.; Kennedy, J. H.; Pattyn, F.; Payne, A. J.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Rückamp, M.; Saito, F.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, A.; Sun, S.; Vandewal, R.; Ziemen, F. A.

2016-12-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise (initMIP-Greenland) is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss final results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Sea-salt injections into the low-latitude marine boundary layer: The transient response in three Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alterskjær, Kari; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Boucher, Olivier; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Timmreck, Claudia

2013-11-01

proposed mechanisms for counteracting global warming through solar radiation management is the deliberate injection of sea salt acting via marine cloud brightening and the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols. In this study, we show results from multidecadal simulations of such sea-salt climate engineering (SSCE) on top of the RCP4.5 emission scenario using three Earth system models. As in the proposed "G3" experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, SSCE is designed to keep the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years. SSCE is then turned off and the models run for another 20 years, enabling an investigation of the abrupt warming associated with a termination of climate engineering ("termination effect"). As in former idealized studies, the climate engineering in all three models leads to a significant suppression of evaporation from low-latitude oceans and reduced precipitation over low-latitude oceans as well as in the storm-track regions. Unlike those studies, however, we find in all models enhanced evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation over low-latitude land regions. This is a response to the localized cooling over the low-latitude oceans imposed by the SSCE design. As a result, the models obtain reduced aridity in many low-latitude land regions as well as in southern Europe. Terminating the SSCE leads to a rapid near-surface temperature increase, which, in the Arctic, exceeds 2 K in all three models within 20 years after SSCE has ceased. In the same period September Arctic sea ice cover shrinks by over 25%.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

PubMed Central

Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

2014-01-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

The surface drifter program for real time and off-line validation of ocean forecasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Fabrice; Regnier, Charly; Drévillon, Marie

2017-04-01

As part of the Global Ocean Observing System, the Global Drifter Program (GDP) is comprised of an array of about 1250 drifting buoys spread over the global ocean, that provide operational, near-real time surface velocity, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure observations. This information is used mainly used for numerical weather forecasting, research, and in-situ calibration/verification of satellite observations. Since 2013 the drifting buoy SST measurements are used for near real time assessment of global forecasting systems from Canada, France, UK, USA, Australia in the frame of the GODAE OceanView Intercomparison and Validation Task. For most of these operational systems, these data are not used for assimilation, and offer an independent observation assessment. This approach mimics the validation performed for SST satellite products. More recently, validation procedures have been proposed in order to assess the surface dynamics of Mercator Océan global and regional forecast and reanalyses. Velocities deduced from drifter trajectories are used in two ways. First, the Eulerian approach where buoy and ocean model velocity values are compared at the position of drifters. Then, from discrepancies, statistics are computed and provide an evaluation of the ocean model's surface dynamics reliability. Second, the Lagrangian approach, where drifting trajectories are simulated at each location of the real drifter trajectory using the ocean model velocity fields. Then, on daily basis, real and simulated drifter trajectories are compared by analyzing the spread after one day, two days etc…. The cumulated statistics on specific geographical boxes are evaluated in term of dispersion properties of the "real ocean" as captured by drifters, and those properties in the ocean model. This approach allows to better evaluate forecasting score for surface dispersion applications, like Search and Rescue, oil spill forecast, drift of other objects or contaminant, larvae dispersion etc… These Eulerian and Lagrangian validation approach can be applied for real time or offline assessment of ocean velocity products. In real time, the main limitation is our capability to detect drifter drogue's loss, causing erroneous assessment. Several methods, by comparison to wind entrainment effect or other velocity estimates like from satellite altimetry, are used. These Eulerian and Lagrangian surface velocity validation methods are planned to be adopted by the GODAE OceanView operational community in order to offer independent verification of surface current forecast.

Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: a model inter-comparison

EPA Science Inventory

A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versio...

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

MMAB Sea Ice Forecast Page

Science.gov Websites

verification statistics Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998. MMAB Note: Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison 1996 pdf ~47

The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E

2009-01-01

The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) providesmore » a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.« less

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline; Wåhlin, Anna

2017-04-01

North Atlantic deep water formation processes and properties in climate models are indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, ventilation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Historical time series of temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to reveal the causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep water formation in models. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. The trigger of deep convection varies among models; for one third it is intense surface cooling only, while the remaining two thirds also need upward mixing of subsurface warm salty water. The models with the most intense deep convection have the most accurate deep water properties, which are warmer and fresher than in the other models. They also have the strongest Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). For over half of the models, 40% of the variability of the AMOC is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas, with 3 and 4 years lag respectively. Understanding the dynamical drivers of the AMOC in models is key to realistically forecast a possible slow down and its consequences on the global circulation and marine life.

Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long-term trends of the hydrological properties have been investigated at sub-basin scale and have been interpreted in terms of response to forcing and boundary conditions, detectable differences resulting mainly due either to the different initialization and spin up procedure or to the different prescription of Atlantic boundary conditions.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the North American Mercury Model Inter-comparison Study (NAMMIS). The NAMMIS is an effort to apply atmospheric Hg models in a tightly constrained testing environment with a focus on North America. With each model using the same input data sets for initial co...

INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 2. MODELING RESULTS VS. LONG-TERM OBSERVATIONS AND COMPARISON OF COUNTRY ATMOSPHERIC BALANCES

EPA Science Inventory

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, two hemispheric and one global scale model participated in the atmospheric Hg modelling intercomparison study. The models were compared between each other and with availa...

Evaluating and Extending the Ocean Wind Climate Data Record

PubMed Central

Ricciardulli, Lucrezia; Rodriguez, Ernesto; Stiles, Bryan W.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Long, David G.; Hoffman, Ross N.; Stoffelen, Ad; Verhoef, Anton; O'Neill, Larry W.; Farrar, J. Tomas; Vandemark, Douglas; Fore, Alexander G.; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.; Turk, F. Joseph; Gaston, Robert; Tyler, Douglas

2017-01-01

Satellite microwave sensors, both active scatterometers and passive radiometers, have been systematically measuring near-surface ocean winds for nearly 40 years, establishing an important legacy in studying and monitoring weather and climate variability. As an aid to such activities, the various wind datasets are being intercalibrated and merged into consistent climate data records (CDRs). The ocean wind CDRs (OW-CDRs) are evaluated by comparisons with ocean buoys and intercomparisons among the different satellite sensors and among the different data providers. Extending the OW-CDR into the future requires exploiting all available datasets, such as OSCAT-2 scheduled to launch in July 2016. Three planned methods of calibrating the OSCAT-2 σo measurements include 1) direct Ku-band σo intercalibration to QuikSCAT and RapidScat; 2) multisensor wind speed intercalibration; and 3) calibration to stable rainforest targets. Unfortunately, RapidScat failed in August 2016 and cannot be used to directly calibrate OSCAT-2. A particular future continuity concern is the absence of scheduled new or continuation radiometer missions capable of measuring wind speed. Specialized model assimilations provide 30-year long high temporal/spatial resolution wind vector grids that composite the satellite wind information from OW-CDRs of multiple satellites viewing the Earth at different local times. PMID:28824741

Evaluating and Extending the Ocean Wind Climate Data Record.

PubMed

Wentz, Frank J; Ricciardulli, Lucrezia; Rodriguez, Ernesto; Stiles, Bryan W; Bourassa, Mark A; Long, David G; Hoffman, Ross N; Stoffelen, Ad; Verhoef, Anton; O'Neill, Larry W; Farrar, J Tomas; Vandemark, Douglas; Fore, Alexander G; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M; Turk, F Joseph; Gaston, Robert; Tyler, Douglas

2017-05-01

Satellite microwave sensors, both active scatterometers and passive radiometers, have been systematically measuring near-surface ocean winds for nearly 40 years, establishing an important legacy in studying and monitoring weather and climate variability. As an aid to such activities, the various wind datasets are being intercalibrated and merged into consistent climate data records (CDRs). The ocean wind CDRs (OW-CDRs) are evaluated by comparisons with ocean buoys and intercomparisons among the different satellite sensors and among the different data providers. Extending the OW-CDR into the future requires exploiting all available datasets, such as OSCAT-2 scheduled to launch in July 2016. Three planned methods of calibrating the OSCAT-2 σ o measurements include 1) direct Ku-band σ o intercalibration to QuikSCAT and RapidScat; 2) multisensor wind speed intercalibration; and 3) calibration to stable rainforest targets. Unfortunately, RapidScat failed in August 2016 and cannot be used to directly calibrate OSCAT-2. A particular future continuity concern is the absence of scheduled new or continuation radiometer missions capable of measuring wind speed. Specialized model assimilations provide 30-year long high temporal/spatial resolution wind vector grids that composite the satellite wind information from OW-CDRs of multiple satellites viewing the Earth at different local times.

Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika; Evaldsson, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Mäkelä, Jarmo; Martin, Gill; Roehrig, Romain; Wang, Shiyu

2018-01-01

The performance of updated versions of the four earth system models (ESMs) CNRM, EC-Earth, HadGEM, and MPI-ESM is assessed in comparison to their predecessor versions used in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is applied to evaluate selected climate phenomena in the models against observations. This is the first systematic application of the ESMValTool to assess and document the progress made during an extensive model development and improvement project. This study focuses on the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM), the coupled equatorial climate, and Southern Ocean clouds and radiation, which are known to exhibit systematic biases in present-day ESMs. The analysis shows that the tropical precipitation in three out of four models is clearly improved. Two of three updated coupled models show an improved representation of tropical sea surface temperatures with one coupled model not exhibiting a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiation interactions are improved over the Southern Ocean. Improvements are also seen in the simulation of the SAM and WAM, although systematic biases remain in regional details and the timing of monsoon rainfall. Analysis of simulations with EC-Earth at different horizontal resolutions from T159 up to T1279 shows that the synoptic-scale variability in precipitation over the SAM and WAM regions improves with higher model resolution. The results suggest that the reasonably good agreement of modeled and observed mean WAM and SAM rainfall in lower-resolution models may be a result of unrealistic intensity distributions.

Dynamical downscaling inter-comparison for high resolution climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Rocha, A.; Castanheira, J. M.; Carvalho, A. C.

2012-04-01

In the scope of the project: "High-resolution Rainfall EroSivity analysis and fORecasTing - RESORT", an evaluation of various methods of dynamic downscaling is presented. The methods evaluated range from the classic method of nesting a regional model results in a global model, in this case the ECMWF reanalysis, to more recently proposed methods, which consist in using Newtonian relaxation methods in order to nudge the results of the regional model to the reanalysis. The method with better results involves using a system of variational data assimilation to incorporate observational data with results from the regional model. The climatology of a simulation of 5 years using this method is tested against observations on mainland Portugal and the ocean in the area of the Portuguese Continental Shelf, which shows that the method developed is suitable for the reconstruction of high resolution climate over continental Portugal.

What Controls ENSO-Amplitude Diversity in Climate Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Dommenget, D.; Latif, M.; Bayr, T.; Vijayeta, A.

2018-02-01

Climate models depict large diversity in the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (ENSO amplitude). Here we investigate ENSO-amplitude diversity in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by means of the linear recharge oscillator model, which reduces ENSO dynamics to a two-dimensional problem in terms of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (T) and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content anomalies (h). We find that a large contribution to ENSO-amplitude diversity originates from stochastic forcing. Further, significant interactions exist between the stochastic forcing and the growth rates of T and h with competing effects on ENSO amplitude. The joint consideration of stochastic forcing and growth rates explains more than 80% of the ENSO-amplitude variance within CMIP5. Our results can readily explain the lack of correlation between the Bjerknes Stability index, a measure of the growth rate of T, and ENSO amplitude in a multimodel ensemble.

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

PubMed Central

Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi

2013-01-01

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736

The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Penelope; Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Webb, Mark J.; Sansom, Philip G.

2018-04-01

Convective parameterizations are widely believed to be essential for realistic simulations of the atmosphere. However, their deficiencies also result in model biases. The role of convection schemes in modern atmospheric models is examined using Selected Process On/Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment simulations without parameterized convection and forced with observed sea surface temperatures. Convection schemes are not required for reasonable climatological precipitation. However, they are essential for reasonable daily precipitation and constraining extreme daily precipitation that otherwise develops. Systematic effects on lapse rate and humidity are likewise modest compared with the intermodel spread. Without parameterized convection Kelvin waves are more realistic. An unexpectedly large moist Southern Hemisphere storm track bias is identified. This storm track bias persists without convection schemes, as does the double Intertropical Convergence Zone and excessive ocean precipitation biases. This suggests that model biases originate from processes other than convection or that convection schemes are missing key processes.

An Analysis of Simulated Wet Deposition of Mercury from the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study

EPA Science Inventory

A previous intercomparison of atmospheric mercury models in North America has been extended to compare simulated and observed wet deposition of mercury. Three regional-scale atmospheric mercury models were tested; CMAQ, REMSAD and TEAM. These models were each employed using thr...

Numerical Model Metrics Tools in Support of Navy Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dykes, J. D.; Fanguy, P.

2017-12-01

Increasing demands of accurate ocean forecasts that are relevant to the Navy mission decision makers demand tools that quickly provide relevant numerical model metrics to the forecasters. Increasing modelling capabilities with ever-higher resolution domains including coupled and ensemble systems as well as the increasing volume of observations and other data sources to which to compare the model output requires more tools for the forecaster to enable doing more with less. These data can be appropriately handled in a geographic information system (GIS) fused together to provide useful information and analyses, and ultimately a better understanding how the pertinent model performs based on ground truth.. Oceanographic measurements like surface elevation, profiles of temperature and salinity, and wave height can all be incorporated into a set of layers correlated to geographic information such as bathymetry and topography. In addition, an automated system that runs concurrently with the models on high performance machines matches routinely available observations to modelled values to form a database of matchups with which statistics can be calculated and displayed, to facilitate validation of forecast state and derived variables. ArcMAP, developed by Environmental Systems Research Institute, is a GIS application used by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and naval operational meteorological and oceanographic centers to analyse the environment in support of a range of Navy missions. For example, acoustic propagation in the ocean is described with a three-dimensional analysis of sound speed that depends on profiles of temperature, pressure and salinity predicted by the Navy Coastal Ocean Model. The data and model output must include geo-referencing information suitable for accurately placing the data within the ArcMAP framework. NRL has developed tools that facilitate merging these geophysical data and their analyses, including intercomparisons between model predictions as well as comparison to validation data. This methodology produces new insights and facilitates identification of potential problems in ocean prediction.

Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.

2012-01-01

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is to systematically compare structurally different climate models. This is done in the context of the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago), a geological interval when the global annual mean temperature was similar to predictions for the next century.

Cloud Microphysical Properties in Mesoscale Convective Systems: An Intercomparison of Three Tropical Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, Emmanuel; Leroy, Delphine; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Coutris, Pierre; Delanoë, Julien; Protat, Alain; Dezitter, Fabien; Grandin, Alice; Strapp, John W.; Lilie, Lyle E.

2017-04-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems are complex cloud systems which are primarily the result of specific synoptic conditions associated with mesoscale instabilities leading to the development of cumulonimbus type clouds (Houze, 2004). These systems can last several hours and can affect human societies in various ways. In general, weather and climate models use simplistic schemes to describe ice hydrometeors' properties. However, MCS are complex cloud systems where the dynamic, radiative and precipitation processes depend on spatiotemporal location in the MCS (Houze, 2004). As a consequence, hydrometeor growth processes in MCS vary in space and time, thereby impacting shape and concentration of ice crystals and finally CWC. As a consequence, differences in the representation of ice properties in models (Li et al., 2007, 2005) lead to significant disagreements in the quantification of ice cloud effects on climate evolution (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report). An accurate estimation of the spatiotemporal CWC distribution is therefore a key parameter for evaluating and improving numerical weather prediction (Stephens et al., 2002). The main purpose of this study is to show ice microphysical properties of MCS observed in three different locations in the tropical atmosphere: West-African continent, Indian Ocean, and Northern Australia. An intercomparison study is performed in order to quantify how similar or different are the ice hydrometeors' properties in these three regions related to radar reflectivity factors and temperatures observed in respective MCS.

Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

PubMed Central

Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

2017-01-01

Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. PMID:28198383

Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Griesfeller, J.; Kinne, S.; Prospero, J.; Bauer, S.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Grini, A.; Horowitz, L.; Koch, D.; Krol, M. C.; Landing, W.; Liu, X.; Mahowald, N.; Miller, R.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J. E.; Perlwitz, J.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Zender, C.

2010-10-01

Desert dust plays an important role in the climate system through its impact on Earth's radiative budget and its role in the biogeochemical cycle as a source of iron in high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll regions. A large degree of diversity exists between the many global models that simulate the dust cycle to estimate its impact on climate. We present the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations focusing on variables responsible for the uncertainties in estimating the direct radiative effect and the dust impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström Exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentration are included to extend the assessment of model performance. These datasets form a benchmark data set which is proposed for model inspection and future dust model developments. In general, models perform better in simulating climatology of vertically averaged integrated parameters (AOD and AE) in dusty sites than they do with total deposition and surface concentration. Almost all models overestimate deposition fluxes over Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and ice core data. Differences among the models arise when simulating deposition at remote sites with low fluxes over the Pacific and the Southern Atlantic Ocean. This study also highlights important differences in models ability to reproduce the deposition flux over Antarctica. The cause of this discrepancy could not be identified but different dust regimes at each site and issues with data quality should be considered. Models generally simulate better surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Likewise, they simulate better surface concentration at stations affected by Saharan dust than at stations affected by Asian dust. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions, however the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models also reproduce the dust transport across the Atlantic in terms of both AOD and AE; they simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year and limit the transport across the Atlantic to the summer months, yet overestimating the AOD and transporting too fine particles. However, most of the models do not reproduce the southward displacement of the dust cloud during the winter responsible of the transport of dust into South America. Based on the dependency of AOD on aerosol burden and size distribution we use model data bias with respect to AOD and AE and infer on the over/under estimation of the dust emissions. According to this we suggest the emissions in the Sahara be between 792 and 2271 Tg/yr and the one in the Middle East between 212 and 329 Tg/yr.

Effect of Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering on Tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q.; Moore, J.; Ji, D.

2017-12-01

Variation in tropical cyclone (TC) number and intensity is driven in part by changes in the thermodynamics that can be defined by ocean and atmospheric variables. Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and ventilation index (VI) are combinations of potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, midlevel entropy deficit, and absolute vorticity that quantify thermodynamic forcing of TC activity under changed climates, and can be calculated from climate model output. Here we use five CMIP5 models running the RCP45 experiment the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) stratospheric aerosol injection G4 experiment to calculate the two indices over the 2020 to 2069 period. Globally, GPI under G4 is lower than under RCP45, though both have a slight increasing trend. Spatial patterns in the relative effectiveness of geoengineering show reductions in TC in all models in the North Atlantic basin, and northern Indian Ocean in all except NorESM1-M. In the North Pacific, most models also show relative reductions under G4. VI generally coincide with the GPI patterns. Most models project Potential intensity and Relative Humidity to be the dominant variable to affect genesis potential. Changes in vertical wind shear and vorticity are small with scatter across different models and ocean basins. We find that tropopause temperature maybe as important as sea surface temperature in effecting TC genesis. Thus stratospheric aerosol geoengineering impacts on potential intensity and hence TC intensity are reasonably consistent, but probably underestimated by statistical forecasts of Tropical North Atlantic hurricane activity driven by sea surface temperatures alone. However the impacts of geoengineering on other ocean basins are more difficult to assess, and require more complete understanding of their driving parameters under present day climates. Furthermore, the possible effects of stratospheric injection on chemical reactions in the stratosphere, such as ozone, are not well rendered in the models used so far.

SimilarityExplorer: A visual inter-comparison tool for multifaceted climate data

Treesearch

J. Poco; A. Dasgupta; Y. Wei; W. Hargrove; C. Schwalm; R. Cook; E. Bertini; C. Silva

2014-01-01

Inter-comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, for example, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms...

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W. D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Sun, Y.; Portmann, R. W.; Fu, Q.; Casanova, S. E. B.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fillmore, D. W.; Forster, P. M. D.;

Intra-seasonal Mixed Layer Process Variability from the ECCO Ocean Data Assimilation Product: Preliminary Analysis Relevant to DYNAMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, T.; Lucas, L. E.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant feature of 30-90 day variability in the tropical Indian (IO) and Pacific (PO) Oceans, plays an important role in air-sea interactions and affects multi-scale phenomena ranging from hurricanes to ENSO. Understanding the MJO requires knowledge of ocean mixed layer (ML) heat budgets. As part of a model-data intercomparison planned for 2011-13 to support the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) project (a US branch of the CINDY2011 international field program), we perform ML heat budget calculations using a heat-conserving assimilation product from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project to study the onset and evolution of MJO scale anomalies in the tropics. For the IO, we focus on the western equatorial basin and the southwest IO thermocline ridge. Here, upwelling processes are very important, indicating a slab or 1-D ocean model is insufficient for accurate MJO simulation. We also examine several locations across the equatorial PO. For example, in the eastern PO, we compare results from ECCO to prior studies with different findings: one based on incomplete mooring data indicating vertical processes dominate, another based on model output that indicates meridional advection dominates in the same area. In ECCO, subsurface process and horizontal advection terms are both important, but their relationships to the net tendency vary spatially. This work has implications for understanding MJO onset and development, associated air-sea interactions, ramifications for multi-scale cross-equatorial heat transport (especially in the IO), and, it is likely to be important in constructing a predictive index for MJO onset. We present budgets in terms of variability of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, as well as mixed layer and barrier layer depths, and we address DYNAMO’s third hypothesis: “The barrier-layer, wind and shear driven mixing, shallow thermocline, and mixing-layer entrainment all play essential roles in MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean by controlling the upper-ocean heat content and SST, and thereby surface flux feedback.”

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uotila, Petteri

2017-04-01

Ocean reanalysis (ORA) combines observations either statistically or with a hydrodynamical model, to reconstruct historical changes in the ocean. Global and regional ORA products are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (PORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project (Balmaseda et al. 2015, with other papers in a special issue of Climate Dynamics). The PORA-IP is constituted under the COST EOS initiative with plans to review reanalyses products in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and is endorsed by YOPP - the Year of Polar Prediction project. Currently, the PORA-IP team consists of 21 researchers from 15 institutes and universities. The ORA-IP products with polar physics, such as sea ice, have been updated where necessary and collected in a public database. In addition to model output, available observational polar climatologies are collected and used in the assessments. Due to the extensive variety of products, this database should become a valuable resource outside the PORA-IP community. For a comprehensive evaluation of the ten ORA products (CGLORSv5, ECDA3.1, GECCO2, Glorys2v4, GloSea5_GO5, MOVEG2i, ORAP5, SODA3.3.1, TOPAZ4 and UR025.4) in the Arctic and Southern Oceans several specific diagnostics are assessed. The PORA-IP diagnostics target the following topics: hydrography; heat, salinity and freshwater content; ocean transports and surface currents; mixed layer depth; sea-ice concentration and thickness; and snow thickness over sea ice. Based on these diagnostics, ORA product biases against observed data and their mutual spread are quantified, and possible reasons for discrepancies discussed. So far, we have identified product outliers and evaluated the multi-model mean. We have identified the importance of the atmospheric forcing, air-ocean coupling protocol and sea-ice data assimilation for the product performance. Moreover, we are investigating co-variability between the Arctic Ocean heat content and the North Atlantic heat transport, and between the mixed layer depth, oceanic convection, the upper ocean hydrography and sea ice. We will also present other diagnostic results which provide closely related information for those interested in enhancing model predictive skill over a range of time scales, including seasonal to decadal.

Landsat 8 Remote Sensing Reflectance (Rrs) Products: Evaluations, Intercomparisons, and Enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pahlevan, Nima; Schott, John R.; Franz, Bryan A.; Zibordi, Giuseppe; Markham, Brian; Bailey, Sean; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Ondrusek, Michael; Greb, Steven; Strait, Christopher M.

2017-01-01

The Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard Landsat-8 is generating high-quality aquatic science products, the most critical of which is the remote sensing reflectance (Rrs), defined as the ratio of water-leaving radiance to the total downwelling irradiance just above water. The quality of the Rrs products has not, however, been extensively assessed. This manuscript provides a comprehensive evaluation of Level-1B, i.e., top of atmosphere reflectance, and Rrs products available from OLI imagery under near-ideal atmospheric conditions in moderately turbid waters. The procedure includes a) evaluations of the Rrs products at sites included in the Ocean Color component of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET-OC), b) intercomparisons and cross-calibrations against other ocean color products, and c) optimizations of vicarious calibration gains across the entire OLI observing swath. Results indicate that the near-infrared and shortwave infrared (NIR-SWIR) band combinations yield the most robust and stable Rrs retrievals in moderately turbid waters. Intercomparisons against products derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Aqua platform (MODISA) indicate slight across-track non-uniformities (<1%) associated with OLI scenes in the blue bands. In both product domains (TOA and Rrs), on average, the OLI products were found larger in radiometric responses in the blue channels. Following the implementation of updated vicarious calibration gains and accounting for across-track non-uniformities, matchup analyses using independent in-situ validation data confirmed improvements in Rrs products. These findings further support high-fidelity OLI-derived aquatic science products in terms of both demonstrating a robust atmospheric correction method and providing consistent products across OLI's imaging swath.

Evaluation of CMIP5 models in the context of food security assessments in Sahel and Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.; Robertson, F. R.

2012-12-01

Global climate change will adversely impact agricultural production in many African countries, mainly in the Sahel region and Eastern Africa that are already considered food insecure regions. The impacts of climate change will be particularly severe in these food insecure countries due to their high dependence on domestic agriculture production, rapid population growth, and lack of technological advances. Early planning and the targeted use of resources will therefore be critical to informing and motivating climate change adaptation actions that can save lives and mitigate economic losses. We seek to use Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) global climate model projections to assess and attribute food and water security conditions in the above mentioned regions over next two decades or so. As a first order of business, however, we need to understand how the different models represent the tropical ocean response to anthropogenic warming. We pursue this question through an evaluation of the performance of eight different coupled ocean-atmosphere models under the conditions of the 'historical' experiment. The historical experiment forces the simulations with observed 1850-2005 greenhouse gas, aerosol and land cover. While all the models show substantial warming of the tropical oceans, the pattern and atmospheric response to that warming varies substantially. This analysis suggests that the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) provides the most realistic 1850-2005 changes over the Indo-Pacific. We then present initial downscaling results, based on large scale forcing from the CCSM4, combined with statistical downscaling based on a combination of monthly simulations from Community Atmopsheric Model 4 (CAM4) and observed gridded time series of African rainfall and air temperatures.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

The Role of Ocean and Atmospheric Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas Martes, R. M.; Kwon, Y. O.; Furey, H. H.

2017-12-01

Observational data and climate model projections have suggested that the Arctic region is warming around twice faster than the rest of the globe, which has been referred as the Arctic Amplification (AA). While the local feedbacks, e.g. sea ice-albedo feedback, are often suggested as the primary driver of AA by previous studies, the role of meridional heat transport by ocean and atmosphere is less clear. This study uses the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulation (CESM1-LE) to seek deeper understanding of the role meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat transports play in AA. The simulation consists of 40 ensemble members with the same physics and external forcing using a single fully coupled climate model. Each ensemble member spans two time periods; the historical period from 1920 to 2005 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical forcing and the future period from 2006 to 2100 using the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Each of the ensemble members are initialized with slightly different air temperatures. As the CESM1-LE uses a single model unlike the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the internal variability and the externally forced components can be separated more clearly. The projections are calculated by comparing the period 2081-2100 relative to the time period 2001-2020. The CESM1-LE projects an AA of 2.5-2.8 times faster than the global average, which is within the range of those from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. However, the spread of AA from the CESM1-LE, which is attributed to the internal variability, is 2-3 times smaller than that of the CMIP5 ensemble, which may also include the inter-model differences. CESM1LE projects a decrease in the atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic and an increase in the oceanic heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further decomposed into moisture transport and dry static energy transport. Also, the oceanic heat transport is decomposed into the Pacific and Atlantic contributions.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Griesfeller, J.; Prospero, J.; Kinne, S.; Bauer, S.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Grini, A.; Horowitz, L.; Koch, D.; Krol, M. C.; Landing, W.; Liu, X.; Mahowald, N.; Miller, R.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Zender, C. S.

2011-08-01

This study presents the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations related to desert dust aerosols, their direct radiative effect, and their impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentrations are included to extend the assessment of model performance and to identify common biases present in models. These data comprise a benchmark dataset that is proposed for model inspection and future dust model development. There are large differences among the global models that simulate the dust cycle and its impact on climate. In general, models simulate the climatology of vertically integrated parameters (AOD and AE) within a factor of two whereas the total deposition and surface concentration are reproduced within a factor of 10. In addition, smaller mean normalized bias and root mean square errors are obtained for the climatology of AOD and AE than for total deposition and surface concentration. Characteristics of the datasets used and their uncertainties may influence these differences. Large uncertainties still exist with respect to the deposition fluxes in the southern oceans. Further measurements and model studies are necessary to assess the general model performance to reproduce dust deposition in ocean regions sensible to iron contributions. Models overestimate the wet deposition in regions dominated by dry deposition. They generally simulate more realistic surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions. However the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year but they overestimate the AOD and they transport too fine particles. The models also reproduce the dust transport across the Atlantic in the summer in terms of both AOD and AE but not so well in winter-spring nor the southward displacement of the dust cloud that is responsible of the dust transport into South America. Based on the dependency of AOD on aerosol burden and size distribution we use model bias with respect to AOD and AE to infer the bias of the dust emissions in Africa and the Middle East. According to this analysis we suggest that a range of possible emissions for North Africa is 400 to 2200 Tg yr-1 and in the Middle East 26 to 526 Tg yr-1.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models hasmore » been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present in the present generation (e.g. over-extensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and imminent commencement of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which will lead to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, 20th, 21st and 22nd century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort, and details are provided below in how to do so.« less

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

2015-06-01

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months.

Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.

2016-12-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

Physically driven Patchy O2 Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean simulated by the CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagklis, Filippos; Bracco, Annalisa; Ito, Takamitsu

2017-04-01

Centennial trends of oxygen in the upper 700 m of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated in Earth System Models (ESMs) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The focus is on the subpolar region, which is key for the oceanic uptake of oxygen and carbon dioxide. Historical simulations covering the twentieth century and projections for the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are investigated. Although the representation of convective activity differs among the models in space and strength, and most models have a cold bias south of Greenland resulting from a poor representation of the pathway of the North Atlantic Current, the observed climatological distribution of dissolved O2 averaged for the recent past period (1975-2005) is generally well captured. By the end of the 21st century, all models predict an increase in depth-integrated temperature of 2-3oC, a consequent solubility decrease, a weakening of the vertical mass transport, a decrease in nutrient supply into the euphotic layer, and a spatially variable change in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). Despite an overall tendency of the North Atlantic to lose oxygen by the end of twenty-first century, patchy regions of O2 increase are observed in a subset of models. This regional resistance to deoxygenation is explained by the weakening of the North Atlantic Current that causes a regional solubility increase exceeding the effect of increasing stratification. Our results imply that potential shifts in the North Atlantic Current play a crucial role in the future projection of the regional oxygen concentration in the warming climate.

Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions along the Gulf Stream: An Eddy-Resolving and Convection-Permitting Coupled Regional Climate Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, J. S.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2017-12-01

Frontal and mesoscale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream (GS) during boreal winter are investigated using an eddy-resolving and convection-permitting coupled regional climate model with atmospheric grid resolutions varying from meso-β (27-km) to -r (9-km and 3-km nest) scales in WRF and a 9-km ocean model (ROMS) that explicitly resolves the ocean mesoscale eddies across the North Atlantic basin. The mesoscale wavenumber energy spectra for the simulated surface wind stress and SST demonstrate good agreement with the observed spectra calculated from the observational QuikSCAT and AMSR-E datasets, suggesting that the model well captures the energy cascade of the mesoscale eddies in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Intercomparison among different resolution simulations indicates that after three months of integration the simulated GS path tends to overshoot beyond the separation point in the 27-km WRF coupled experiments than the observed climatological path of the GS, whereas the 3-km nested and 9-km WRF coupled simulations realistically simulate GS separation. The GS overshoot in 27-km WRF coupled simulations is accompanied with a significant SST warming bias to the north of the GS extension. Such biases are associated with the deficiency of wind stress-SST coupling strengths simulated by the coupled model with a coarser resolution in WRF. It is found that the model at 27-km grid spacing can approximately simulate 72% (62%) of the observed mean coupling strength between surface wind stress curl (divergence) and crosswind (downwind) SST gradient while by increasing the WRF resolutions to 9 km or 3 km the coupled model can much better capture the observed coupling strengths.

Arctic Ocean Pathways in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; van Gennip, Simon J.; Kelly, Stephen J.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew

2017-04-01

In the last three decades, changes in the Arctic environment have been occurring at an increasing rate. The opening up of large areas of previously sea ice-covered ocean affects the marine environment with potential impacts on Arctic ecosystems, including through changes in Arctic access, industries and societies. Changes to sea ice and surface winds result in large-scale shifts in ocean circulation and oceanic pathways. This study presents a high-resolution analysis of the projected ocean circulation and pathways of the Arctic water masses across the 21st century. The analysis is based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the ocean general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at the 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. The atmospheric forcing is from HadGEM2-ES model output from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) simulations performed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. During the 21st century the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increased by in excess of 4 deg. C. Annual mean Arctic sea ice thickness drops to less than 0.5m, and the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer from the mid-century. We use an off-line tracer technique to investigate Arctic pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters (AW and PW respectively) under this future climate. The AW tracers have been released in the eastern Fram Strait and in the western Barents Sea, whereas the PW tracer has been seeded in the Bering Strait. In the second half of the century the upper 1000 m ocean circulation shows a reduction in the eastward AW flow along the continental slopes towards the Makarov and Canada basins and a deviation of the PW flow away from the Beaufort Sea towards the Siberian coast. Strengthening of Arctic boundary current and intensification of the cyclonic gyre in the Nansen basin of the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by weakening of the current and an anti-cyclonic gyre spin-up in the Makarov Basin. This presents a shift of the Arctic circulation "dipole" and of the Transpolar Drift, with the consequence that the PW flow towards Fram Strait is significantly reduced by the end of the century, weakening the Pacific-Atlantic connection via the Arctic Ocean, and reducing the Arctic freshwater outflow into the North Atlantic. Examination of the simulations suggests that these circulation changes are primarily due to the shift in the wind.

The 1996 North American Interagency Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers

PubMed Central

Early, Edward; Thompson, Ambler; Johnson, Carol; DeLuisi, John; Disterhoft, Patrick; Wardle, David; Wu, Edmund; Mou, Wanfeng; Ehramjian, James; Tusson, John; Mestechkina, Tanya; Beaubian, Mark; Gibson, James; Hayes, Douglass

1998-01-01

Concern over stratospheric ozone depletion has prompted several government agencies in North America to establish networks of spectroradiometers for monitoring solar ultraviolet irradiance at the surface of the Earth. To assess the ability of spectroradiometers to accurately measure solar ultraviolet irradiance, and to compare the results between instruments of different monitoring networks, the third North American Interagency Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers was held June 17–25, 1996 at Table Mountain outside Boulder, Colorado, USA. This Intercomparison was coordinated by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency; the National Science Foundation; the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; the Department of Agriculture; and the Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada. The spectral irradiances of participants’ calibrated standard lamps were measured at NIST prior to the Intercomparison. The spectral irradiance scales used by the participants agreed with the NIST scale within the combined uncertainties, and for all lamps the spectral irradiance in the horizontal position was lower than that in the vertical position. Instruments were characterized for wavelength uncertainty, bandwidth, stray-light rejection, and spectral irradiance responsivity, the latter with NIST standard lamps operating in specially designed field calibration units. The spectral irradiance responsivity demonstrated instabilities for some instruments. Synchronized spectral scans of the solar irradiance were performed over several days. Using the spectral irradiance responsivities determined with the NIST standard lamps, the measured solar irradiances had some unexplained systematic differences between instruments. PMID:28009358

Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petch, Jon; Hill, Adrian; Davies, Laura; Fridlind, Ann; Jakob, Christian; Lin, Yanluan; Xie, Shaoecheng; Zhu, Ping

2013-01-01

Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

Intercomparison and Assessment of GRACE Temporal Gravity Solutions Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, J.; Nerem, R. S.; Leuliette, E. W.

2006-12-01

The GRACE mission has been producing monthly estimates of changes in the Earth's gravity field since April 2002. Converting the raw GRACE range, accelerometer, and GPS measurements into estimates of the gravity field is a complex process, and therefore different analysis groups use various "recipes" resulting in different models of the time-varying gravity field. We have intercompared the solutions generated by a number of groups: Center for Space Research (CSR), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), to determine the characteristics of each group's solutions as applied to different scientific applications. For different scales of gaussian smoothing, we have examined the power spectrum of each model, the pattern of seasonal gravity variations, the residuals from a seasonal fit, and results from locations in the Sahara desert and Atlantic Ocean where the signals are known to be small. We have also characterized the level of "striping" in each center's solutions. In addition, we have compared each center's solutions for changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, global ocean mass, and hydrologic changes over the continents. Using these tests and evaluations, we have been able to characterize the performance of each center's gravity solutions.

Intercomparison of the Gulf Stream in ocean reanalyses: 1993-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Lequan; Wolfe, Christopher L. P.; Hameed, Sultan

2018-05-01

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of high-resolution ocean reanalysis products. This paper compares aspects of the Gulf Stream (GS) from the Florida Straits to south of the Grand Banks-particularly Florida Strait transport, separation of the GS near Cape Hatteras, GS properties along the Oleander Line (from New Jersey to Bermuda), GS path, and the GS north wall positions-in 13 widely used global reanalysis products of various resolutions, including two unconstrained products. A large spread across reanalysis products is found. HYCOM and GLORYS2v4 stand out for their superior performance by most metrics. Some common biases are found in all discussed models; for example, the velocity structure of the GS near the Oleander Line is too symmetrical and the maximum velocity is too weak compared with observations. Less than half of the reanalysis products show significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) with observations for the GS separation latitude at Cape Hatteras, the GS transport, and net transport across Oleander Line. The cross-stream velocity structure is further discussed by a theoretical model idealizing GS as a smoothed PV front.

The climate of early Mars: New insights from climate modeling and geological intercomparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wordsworth, R. D.

2016-12-01

Early Mars has abundant evidence for running water 3-4 Ga, but the extent to which it was continuously warm and wet, with a northern ocean, remains a continuing source of controversy. Although large uncertainties remain, advances in orbital and rover observations and climate modeling over the last decade have led to important new insights. Here, the geological evidence for both fluvial and fluvoglacial erosion is first reviewed. A phase space approach is then taken that considers the surface H2O inventory and steady-state mean surface temperature as separate variables. Based on this, it is argued that a fairly cold climate state with limited H2O inventory provides the best fit to the geological observations. In particular, a 'top-down' hydrological cycle where ice deposits form on the south pole, equatorial highlands and Tharsis allows significant fluvial erosion via episodic melting. Importantly, it also avoids the buildup of the thick, wet-based icesheets across the southern hemisphere that would appear following the wet scenario where early Mars had a northern ocean. At the end of the talk, the most likely mechanisms to explain the episodic melting events in the mainly cold, 'icy highlands' state are also discussed.

How much of the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by SST?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Wu, Bo; Li, Chunhui; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Zheng, Bin; Zhou, Tianjun

2016-07-01

It is widely accepted that the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by sea surface temperature (SST), and SST anomalies are widely used as predictors of East Asian summer rainfall. But it is still not very clear what percentage of the interannual rainfall variability is contributed by SST anomalies. In this study, Atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed interannual varying SST are compared with those forced by the fixed annual cycle of SST climatology, and their ratios of interannual variance (IAV) are analyzed. The output of 12 models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are adopted, and idealized experiments are done by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). Both the multi-model median of CMIP5 models and CAM4 experiments show that only about 18 % of the IAV of rainfall over East Asian land (EAL) is explained by SST, which is significantly lower than the tropical western Pacific, but comparable to the mid-latitude western Pacific. There is no significant difference between the southern part and the northern part of EAL in the percentages of SST contribution. The remote SST anomalies regulates rainfall over EAL probably by modulating the horizontal water vapor transport rather than the vertical motion, since the horizontal water vapor transport into EAL is strongly modulated by SST but the vertical motion over EAL is not. Previous studies argued about the relative importance of tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean to East Asian summer rainfall anomalies. Our idealized experiments performed by CAM4 suggest that the contributions from these two ocean basins are comparable to each other, both of which account for approximately 6 % of the total IAV of rainfall over EAL.

Inter-comparison of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice rheology in a fully coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Seefeldt, M. W.; Hughes, M.; Duvivier, A.; Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Hutchings, J. K.; Hunke, E. C.

2015-12-01

We present the sea ice climate of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), using a suite of new physics available in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolution fully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. The model domain extends from ~45˚N to the North Pole and is configured to run at ~9km resolution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models. The baseline sea ice model configuration includes mushy-layer sea ice thermodynamics and level-ice melt ponds. Using this configuration, we compare the use of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice mechanics, and evaluate model performance using these two variants against observations including Arctic buoy drift and deformation, satellite-derived drift and deformation, and sea ice volume estimates from ICESat. We find that the isotropic rheology better approximates spatial patterns of thickness observed across the Arctic, but that both rheologies closely approximate scaling laws observed in the pack using buoys and RGPS data. A fundamental component of both ice mechanics variants, the so called Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) and Anisotropic-Elastic-Plastic (EAP), is that they are highly sensitive to the timestep used for elastic sub-cycling in an inertial-resolving coupled framework, and this has a significant affect on surface fluxes in the fully coupled framework.

netCDF Operators for Rapid Analysis of Measured and Modeled Swath-like Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zender, C. S.

2015-12-01

Swath-like data (hereafter SLD) are defined by non-rectangular and/or time-varying spatial grids in which one or more coordinates are multi-dimensional. It is often challenging and time-consuming to work with SLD, including all Level 2 satellite-retrieved data, non-rectangular subsets of Level 3 data, and model data on curvilinear grids. Researchers and data centers want user-friendly, fast, and powerful methods to specify, extract, serve, manipulate, and thus analyze, SLD. To meet these needs, large research-oriented agencies and modeling center such as NASA, DOE, and NOAA increasingly employ the netCDF Operators (NCO), an open-source scientific data analysis software package applicable to netCDF and HDF data. NCO includes extensive, fast, parallelized regridding features to facilitate analysis and intercomparison of SLD and model data. Remote sensing, weather and climate modeling and analysis communities face similar problems in handling SLD including how to easily: 1. Specify and mask irregular regions such as ocean basins and political boundaries in SLD (and rectangular) grids. 2. Bin, interpolate, average, or re-map SLD to regular grids. 3. Derive secondary data from given quality levels of SLD. These common tasks require a data extraction and analysis toolkit that is SLD-friendly and, like NCO, familiar in all these communities. With NCO users can 1. Quickly project SLD onto the most useful regular grids for intercomparison. 2. Access sophisticated statistical and regridding functions that are robust to missing data and allow easy specification of quality control metrics. These capabilities improve interoperability, software-reuse, and, because they apply to SLD, minimize transmission, storage, and handling of unwanted data. While SLD analysis still poses many challenges compared to regularly gridded, rectangular data, the custom analyses scripts SLD once required are now shorter, more powerful, and user-friendly.

Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stjern, Camilla W.; Muri, Helene; Ahlm, Lars; Boucher, Olivier; Cole, Jason N. S.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Haywood, Jim; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Phipps, Steven J.; Schmidt, Hauke; Watanabe, Shingo; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón

2018-01-01

Here we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to -1.9 W m-2, with a substantial inter-model spread of -0.6 to -2.5 W m-2. The large spread is partly related to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020-2069) -0.96 [-0.17 to -1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of -2.35 [-0.57 to -2.96] % due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.

Measuring Ocean Surface Waves using Signal Reflections from Geostationary Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellette, J. D.; Dowgiallo, D. J.; Hwang, P. A.; Toporkov, J. V.

2017-12-01

The delay-Doppler response of communications signals (such as GNSS) reflected off the ocean surface is well-known to have properties which strongly correlate with surface wind conditions and ocean surface roughness. This study extends reflectometry techniques currently applied to the GNSS constellation to include geostationary communications satellites such as XM Radio. In this study, ocean wind conditions and significant wave height will be characterized using the delay-Doppler response of XM Radio signals reflected off of ocean surface waves. Using geostationary satellites for reflectometry-based remote sensing of oceans presents two primary advantages. First, longer coherent integration times can be achieved, which boosts signal processing gain and allows for finer Doppler resolution. Second, being designed for wide-area broadcast communications, the ground-received power of these geostationary satellite signals tends to be many orders of magnitude stronger than e.g. GNSS signals. Reflections of such signals from the ocean are strong enough to be received well outside of the specular region. This flexibility of viewing geometry allows signal processing to be performed on data received from multiple incidence/reception angles, which can provide a more complete characterization of ocean surface roughness and surface wind vectors. This work will include studies of simulated and measured delay-Doppler behavior of XM Radio signals reflected from dynamic ocean surfaces. Simulation studies will include inter-comparison between a number of hydrodynamic and electromagnetic models. Results from simulations will be presented as delay-Doppler plots and will be compared with delay-Doppler behavior observed in measured data. Measured data will include field campaign results from early- to mid-2017 in which the US Naval Research Laboratory's in-house XM reflectometer-receiver was deployed near the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina to observe reflections from wind-driven ocean waves. Preliminary results from a significant wave height retrieval algorithm will also be presented.

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Balaji, V.; Benson, R.; Chen, J.-H.; Chen, X.; Donner, L. J.; Dunne, J. P.; Dunne, Krista A.; Durachta, J.; Fan, S.-M.; Freidenreich, S. M.; Garner, S. T.; Ginoux, P.; Harris, L. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krasting, J. P.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Liang, Z.; Lin, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Malyshev, S. L.; Mason, E.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Ming, Y.; Naik, V.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Phillipps, P.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Robinson, T.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Seman, C. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Shen, Z.; Shin, H.; Silvers, L.; Wilson, J. R.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Wyman, B.; Xiang, B.

2018-01-01

In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Ming; Golaz, J. -C.; Held, I. M.; ...

2018-02-19

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken tomore » tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.« less

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Balaji, V.; Benson, R.; Chen, J.-H.; Chen, X.; Donner, L. J.; Dunne, J. P.; Dunne, K.; Durachta, J.; Fan, S.-M.; Freidenreich, S. M.; Garner, S. T.; Ginoux, P.; Harris, L. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krasting, J. P.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Liang, Z.; Lin, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Malyshev, S. L.; Mason, E.; Milly, P. C. D.; Ming, Y.; Naik, V.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Phillipps, P.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Robinson, T.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Seman, C. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Shen, Z.; Shin, H.; Silvers, L. G.; Wilson, J. R.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Wyman, B.; Xiang, B.

2018-03-01

In Part 2 of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Ming; Golaz, J. -C.; Held, I. M.

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken tomore » tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.« less

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

Design and Application of a Community Land Benchmarking System for Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Koven, C. D.; Kluzek, E. B.; Mao, J.; Randerson, J. T.

2015-12-01

Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of climate models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical era. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we developed a new benchmarking software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring metrics, so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. Evaluation data sets included soil and aboveground carbon stocks, fluxes of energy, carbon and water, burned area, leaf area, and climate forcing and response variables. We used this system to evaluate simulations from the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with prognostic atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the period from 1850 to 2005 (i.e., esmHistorical simulations archived on the Earth System Grid Federation). We found that the multi-model ensemble had a high bias in incoming solar radiation across Asia, likely as a consequence of incomplete representation of aerosol effects in this region, and in South America, primarily as a consequence of a low bias in mean annual precipitation. The reduced precipitation in South America had a larger influence on gross primary production than the high bias in incoming light, and as a consequence gross primary production had a low bias relative to the observations. Although model to model variations were large, the multi-model mean had a positive bias in atmospheric carbon dioxide that has been attributed in past work to weak ocean uptake of fossil emissions. In mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere, most models overestimate latent heat fluxes in the early part of the growing season, and underestimate these fluxes in mid-summer and early fall, whereas sensible heat fluxes show the opposite trend.

Description and evaluation of the Acoustic Profiling of Ocean Currents (APOC) system used on R. V. Oceanus cruise 96 on 11-22 May 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyce, T. M.; Rintoul, S. R., Jr.; Barbour, R. L.

1982-01-01

The underway current profiling system which consists of a microprocessor controlled data logger that collects and formats data from a four beam Ametek-Straza 300 kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler, heading from the ship's gyrocompass, and navigation information from a Loran-C receiver and a satellite navigation unit is discussed. Data are recorded on magnetic tape and real time is calculated. Time averaging is required to remove effects of ship motion. An intercomparison is made with a moored vector measuring current meter (VMCM). The mean difference in hourly averaged APOC and VMCM currents over the four hour intercomparison is a few mm s minus including: two Gulf Stream crossings, a warm core ring survey, and shallow water in a frontal zone to the east of Nantucket Shoals.

The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael

Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment andmore » because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates's early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized the scientific ideas that are the basis of PCMDI's success, summarizing their evolution and impact. Four speakers followed the various PCMDI-supported climate model intercomparison projects, beginning with early work on cloud representations in models, presented by Robert D. Cess (Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Stony Brook University), and then the latest Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Projects (CFMIPs) led by Sandrine Bony (Laboratoire de M'©t'©orologie Dynamique). Benjamin Santer (LLNL) presented a review of the climate change detection and attribution (D & A) work pioneered at PCMDI, and Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR) ended the day with a look toward the future of climate change research.« less

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabré, Anna; Marinov, Irina; Leung, Shirley

2015-09-01

We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in projected phytoplankton biomass, productivity, and organic carbon export changes over the twenty-first century in the RCP8.5 scenario (years 2080-2099) compared to the historical scenario (years 1980-1999). All models predict decreases in primary and export production globally of up to 30 % of the historical value. We divide the ocean into biomes using upwelling velocities, sea-ice coverage, and maximum mixed layer depths. Models generally show expansion of subtropical, oligotrophic biomes and contraction of marginal sea-ice biomes. The equatorial and subtropical biomes account for 77 % of the total modern oceanic primary production (PP), but contribute 117 % to the global drop in PP, slightly compensated by an increase in PP in high latitudes. The phytoplankton productivity response to climate is surprisingly similar across models in low latitude biomes, indicating a common set of modeled processes controlling productivity changes. Ecological responses are less consistent across models in the subpolar and sea-ice biomes. Inter-hemispheric asymmetries in physical drivers result in stronger climate-driven relative decreases in biomass, productivity, and export of organic matter in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere low latitudes. The export ratio, a measure of the efficiency of carbon export to the deep ocean, decreases across low and mid-latitude biomes and models with more than one phytoplankton type, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Inter-model variability is much higher for biogeochemical than physical variables in the historical period, but is very similar among predicted 100-year biogeochemical and physical changes. We include detailed biome-by-biome analyses, discuss the decoupling between biomass, productivity and export across biomes and models, and present statistical significance and consistency across models using a novel technique based on bootstrapping combined with a weighting scheme based on similarity across models.

Investigation of scene identification algorithms for radiation budget measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diekmann, F. J.

1986-01-01

The computation of Earth radiation budget from satellite measurements requires the identification of the scene in order to select spectral factors and bidirectional models. A scene identification procedure is developed for AVHRR SW and LW data by using two radiative transfer models. These AVHRR GAC pixels are then attached to corresponding ERBE pixels and the results are sorted into scene identification probability matrices. These scene intercomparisons show that there generally is a higher tendency for underestimation of cloudiness over ocean at high cloud amounts, e.g., mostly cloudy instead of overcast, partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy, for the ERBE relative to the AVHRR results. Reasons for this are explained. Preliminary estimates of the errors of exitances due to scene misidentification demonstrates the high dependency on the probability matrices. While the longwave error can generally be neglected the shortwave deviations have reached maximum values of more than 12% of the respective exitances.

Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 5th, London, England, Sept. 3-7, 1990, Preprints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The present conference on satellite meteorology and oceanography discusses climate and clouds, retrieval algorithms, air-sea phenomenology, oceanographic applications, SSM/I, mesoscale, synoptic, and NWP applications, and future satellites and systems. Attention is given to the properties of cirrus clouds measured by satellites and lidars, the geographical variation of the diurnal cycle of clouds from ISCCP, the susceptibility of cloud reflectance to pollution, and a global analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions. Topics addressed include precision intercomparisons between MSU channel 2 and radiosonde data over the U.S., humidity estimates from Meteosat observations, the assimilation of altimeter observations into a global wave model, and atmosphericmore » stratification effects on scatterometer model functions. Also discussed are observations of Indian Ocean eddy variability, the deconvolution of GOES infrared data, short-range variations in total cloud cover in the tropics, and rainfall monitoring by the SSM/I in middle latitudes.« less

Geopotential Model Improvement Using POCM_4B Dynamic Ocean Topography Information: PGM2000A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pavlis, N. K.; Chinn, D. S.; Cox, C. M.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The two-year mean (1993-1994) Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) field implied by the POCM_4B circulation model was used to develop normal equations for DOT, in a surface spherical harmonic representation. These normal equations were combined with normal equations from satellite tracking data, surface gravity data, and altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1. Several least-squares combination solutions were developed in this fashion, by varying parameters such as the maximum degree of the estimated DOT and the relative weights of the different data. The solutions were evaluated in terms of orbit fit residuals, GPS/Leveling-derived undulations, and independent DOT information from in situ WOCE hydrographic data. An optimal solution was developed in this fashion which was originally presented at the 1998 EGS meeting in Nice, France. This model, designated here PGM2000A, maintains the orbit and land geoid modeling performance of EGM96, while improving its marine geoid modeling capability. In addition, PGM2000A's error spectrum is considerably more realistic than those of other contemporary gravitational models and agrees well with the error spectrum of EGM96. We will present the development and evaluation of PGM2000A, with particular emphasis on the weighting of the DOT information implied by POCM_4B. We will also present an inter-comparison of PGM2000A with the GRIM5-C1 and TEG-4 models. Directions for future work and problematic areas will be identified.

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin

2017-04-01

Initial shock is a well-known problem occurring in the early years of a decadal prediction when assimilating full-field observations into a coupled model, which directly affects the prediction skill. For the purpose to alleviate this problem, we propose a novel full-field initialization method based on dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar). Different from the available solution strategies including anomaly assimilation and bias correction, it substantially reduces the initial shock through generating more consistent initial conditions for the coupled model, which, along with the model trajectory in one-month windows, best fit the monthly mean analysis data of oceanic temperature and salinity. We evaluate the performance of initialized hindcast experiments according to three proposed indices to measure the intensity of the initial shock. The results indicate that this strategy can obviously reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2) compared with the commonly-used nudging full-field initialization for the same model as well as the different full-field initialization strategies for other CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models whose decadal prediction results are available. It is also comparable to or even better than the anomaly initialization methods. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomaly are obtained due to the reduction of initial shock by the new initialization scheme.

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

SIMBIOS Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRAI) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yan

North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development.

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

ARM/GCSS/SPARC TWP-ICE CRM Intercomparison Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fridlind, Ann; Ackerman, Andrew; Petch, Jon; Field, Paul; Hill, Adrian; McFarquhar, Greg; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Minghua

2010-01-01

Specifications are provided for running a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and submitting results in a standardized format for inclusion in a n intercomparison study and archiving for public access. The simulated case study is based on measurements obtained during the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) led by the U. S. department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The modeling intercomparison study is based on objectives developed in concert with the Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) program and the GEWEX cloud system study (GCSS) program. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is a core project of the World Climate Research PRogramme (WCRP).

Changes in Clouds Under a Combined CO2 Increase and Solar Decrease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russotto, R. D.; Ackerman, T. P.

2017-12-01

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) provides an excellent opportunity to study the response of clouds and the large-scale circulation to opposing solar and greenhouse gas forcings. This study analyzes changes in cloud fraction in 10 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models in GeoMIP Experiment G1, in which CO2 concentrations are quadrupled and the solar constant is reduced in order to keep global mean temperature at preindustrial levels. There is general agreement among the models that the area coverage of low clouds (below the 680 hPa pressure level) decreases in this experiment compared to preindustrial conditions over most ocean and vegetated land areas. This reduction in low cloud fraction is related to decreases in boundary layer inversion strength over the ocean, and to plant physiological responses to increased CO2. Mid-level clouds (680-440 hPa) and high clouds (< 440 hPa) are reduced over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to the north and south of the ITCZ, while high clouds also increase over the center of the ITCZ. These changes are related to a weakening of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ in G1, which happens because the summer hemisphere is preferentially cooled by the solar reduction. To explore the link between clouds and the ITCZ migration, we examine changes in the seasonal cycle of cloud cover and in the instantaneous ITCZ width throughout the year. High cloud fraction increases in the global mean in most models, likely due to upper tropospheric cooling. An analysis of radiative effects using the Approximate Partial Radiation Perturbation method shows that, in the shortwave, cloud changes in G1 have a warming effect in most areas, mainly due to the reduction in low cloud fraction. This effect, along with the warming effect from the increase in high clouds, results in a larger solar reduction being necessary to compensate for the CO2 increase.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Does the Arctic Amplification peak this decade?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Torge; Haine, Thomas W. N.

2017-04-01

Temperatures rise faster in the Arctic than on global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. While this is well established from observations and model simulations, projections of future climate (here: RCP8.5) with models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) also indicate that the Arctic Amplification has a maximum. We show this by means of an Arctic Amplification factor (AAF), which we define as the ratio of Arctic mean to global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies are referenced to the period 1960-1980 and smoothed by a 30-year running mean. For October, the multi-model ensemble-mean AAF reaches a maximum in 2017. The maximum moves however to later years as Arctic winter progresses: for the autumn mean SAT (September to November) the maximum AAF is found in 2028 and for winter (December to February) in 2060. Arctic Amplification is driven, amongst others, by the ice-albedo feedback (IAF) as part of the more general surface albedo feedback (involving clouds, snow cover, vegetation changes) and temperature effects (Planck and lapse-rate feedbacks). We note that sea ice retreat and the associated warming of the summer Arctic Ocean are not only an integral part of the IAF but are also involved in the other drivers. In the CMIP5 simulations, the timing of the AAF maximum coincides with the period of fastest ice retreat for the respective month. Presence of at least some sea ice is crucial for the IAF to be effective because of the contrast in surface albedo between ice and open water and the need to turn ocean warming into ice melt. Once large areas of the Arctic Ocean are ice-free, the IAF should be less effective. We thus hypothesize that the ice retreat significantly affects AAF variability and forces a decline of its magnitude after at least half of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free and the ice cover becomes basically seasonal.

The G4Foam Experiment: global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Corey J.; Robock, Alan; Xia, Lili; Zambri, Brian; Kravitz, Ben

2017-01-01

Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM CAM4-Chem global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is increased over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. In theory, this could be accomplished using a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles. Such a foam has been developed under idealized conditions, although deployment at a large scale is presently infeasible. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through to 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is set to 0.15 (an increase of 150 %) over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, against a background of the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6 W m-2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario. After 2069, geoengineering is ceased, and the simulation is run for an additional 20 years. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N. There is an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June-July-August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America, and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of -1.5 W m-2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. The precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.

The 1994 North American Interagency Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers

PubMed Central

Thompson, Ambler; Early, Edward A.; DeLuisi, John; Disterhoft, Patrick; Wardle, David; Kerr, James; Rives, John; Sun, Yongchen; Lucas, Timothy; Mestechkina, Tanya; Neale, Patrick

1997-01-01

Concern over stratospheric ozone depletion has prompted several government agencies in North America to establish networks of spectroradiometers for monitoring solar ultraviolet irradiance at the surface of the Earth. To assess the ability of spectroradiometers to accurately measure solar ultraviolet irradiance, and to compare the results between instruments of different monitoring networks, the first North American Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers was held September 19–29, 1994 at Table Mountain outside Boulder, Colorado, USA. This Intercomparison was coordinated by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency, National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, and Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada. Instruments were characterized for wavelength accuracy, bandwidth, stray-light rejection, and spectral irradiance responsivity, the latter with a NIST standard lamp calibrated to operate in the horizontal position. The spectral irradiance responsivity was determined once indoors and twice outdoors, and demonstrated that, while the responsivities changed upon moving the instruments, they were relatively stable when the instruments remained outdoors. Synchronized spectral scans of the solar irradiance were performed over several days. Using the spectral irradiance responsivities determined with the NIST standard lamp, and a simple convolution technique to account for the different bandwidths of the instruments, the measured solar irradiances agreed within 5 %. PMID:27805148

An intercomparison of instrumentation for tropospheric measurements of dimethyl sulfide: Aircraft results for concentrations at the parts-per-trillion level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Gerald L.; Warren, Linda S.; Davis, Douglas D.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Bandy, Alan R.; Ferek, Ronald J.; Johnson, James E.; Saltzman, Eric S.; Cooper, David J.

1993-01-01

This paper reports results from NASA's Chemical Instrumentation and Test Evaluation (CITE 3) during which airborne measurements of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from six instruments were intercompared. Represented by the six instruments are three fundamentally different detection principles (flame photometric, mass spectrometric, and electron capture after fluorination); three collection/preconcentration methods (cryogenic, gold wool absorption, and polymer absorbent); and three types of oxidant scrubbers (solid phase alkaline, aqueous reactor, and cotton). The measurements were made over the Atlantic Ocean in August/September 1989 during flights from NASA's Wallops Flight Center, Virginia, and Natal, Brazil. The majority of the intercomparisons are at DMS mixing ratios less than 50 pptv. Results show that instrument agreement is of the order of a few pptv for mixing ratios less than 50 pptv and to within about 15% above 50 pptv. Statistically significant (95% confidence) measurement biases were noted among some of the techniques. However, in all cases, any bias is small and within the accuracy of the measurements and prepared DMS standards. Thus, we conclude that the techniques intercompared during CITE 3 provide equally valid measurements of DMS in the range of a few pptv to 100 pptv (upper range of the intercomparisons).

Solid precipitation measurement intercomparison in Bismarck, North Dakota, from 1988 through 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.

2009-01-01

A solid precipitation measurement intercomparison was recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and was initiated after approval by the ninth session of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation. The goal of the intercomparison was to assess national methods of measuring solid precipitation against methods whose accuracy and reliability were known. A field study was started in Bismarck, N. Dak., during the 1988-89 winter as part of the intercomparison. The last official field season of the WMO intercomparison was 1992-93; however, the Bismarck site continued to operate through the winter of 1996-97. Precipitation events at Bismarck were categorized as snow, mixed, or rain on the basis of descriptive notes recorded as part of the solid precipitation intercomparison. The rain events were not further analyzed in this study. Catch ratios (CRs) - the ratio of the precipitation catch at each gage to the true precipitation measurement (the corrected double fence intercomparison reference) - were calculated. Then, regression analysis was used to develop equations that model the snow and mixed precipitation CRs at each gage as functions of wind speed and temperature. Wind speed at the gages, functions of temperature, and upper air conditions (wind speed and air temperature at 700 millibars pressure) were used as possible explanatory variables in the multiple regression analysis done for this study. The CRs were modeled by using multiple regression analysis for the Tretyakov gage, national shielded gage, national unshielded gage, AeroChem gage, national gage with double fence, and national gage with Wyoming windshield. As in earlier studies by the WMO, wind speed and air temperature were found to influence the CR of the Tretyakov gage. However, in this study, the temperature variable represented the average upper air temperature over the duration of the event. The WMO did not use upper air conditions in its analysis. The national shielded and unshielded gages where found to be influenced by functions of wind speed only, as in other studies, but the upper air wind speed was used as an explanatory variable in this study. The AeroChem gage was not used in the WMO intercomparison study for 1987-93. The AeroChem gage had a highly varied CR at Bismarck, and a number of variables related to wind speed and temperature were used in the model for the CR. Despite extensive efforts to find a model for the national gage with double fence, no statistically significant regression model was found at the 0.05 level of statistical significance. The national gage with Wyoming windshield had a CR modeled by temperature and wind speed variables, and the regression relation had the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.572) and adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (R2a = 0.476) of all of the models identified for any gage. Three of the gage CRs evaluated could be compared with those in the WMO intercomparison study for 1987-93. The WMO intercomparison had the advantage of a much larger dataset than this study. However, the data in this study represented a longer time period. Snow precipitation catch is highly varied depending on the equipment used and the weather conditions. Much of the variation is not accounted for in the WMO equations or in the equations developed in this study, particularly for unshielded gages. Extensive attempts at regression analysis were made with the mixed precipitation data, but it was concluded that the sample sizes were not large enough to model the CRs. However, the data could be used to test the WMO intercomparison equations. The mixed precipitation equations for the Tretyakov and national shielded gages are similar to those for snow in that they are more likely to underestimate precipitation when observed amounts were small and overestimate precipitation when observed amounts were relatively large. Mixed precipitation is underestimated by the WMO adjustment and t

Phytoplankton off the West Coast of Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Just off the coast of West Africa, persistent northeasterly trade winds often churn up deep ocean water. When the nutrients in these deep waters reach the ocean's surface, they often give rise to large blooms of phytoplankton. This image of the Mauritanian coast shows swirls of phytoplankton fed by the upwelling of nutrient-rich water. The scene was acquired by the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) aboard the European Space Agency's ENVISAT. MERIS will monitor changes in phytoplankton across Earth's oceans and seas, both for the purpose of managing fisheries and conducting global change research. NASA scientists will use data from this European instrument in the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program. The mission of SIMBIOS is to construct a consistent long-term dataset of ocean color (phytoplankton abundance) measurements made by multiple satellite instruments, including the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For more information about MERIS and ENVISAT, visit the ENVISAT home page. Image copyright European Space Agency

Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John

A new high-resolution (0.9more » $$^{\\circ}$$x1.25$$^{\\circ}$$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$$^{\\circ}$$x1.4$$^{\\circ}$$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.« less

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voldoire, A.; Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Salas y Mélia, D.; Decharme, B.; Cassou, C.; Sénési, S.; Valcke, S.; Beau, I.; Alias, A.; Chevallier, M.; Déqué, M.; Deshayes, J.; Douville, H.; Fernandez, E.; Madec, G.; Maisonnave, E.; Moine, M.-P.; Planton, S.; Saint-Martin, D.; Szopa, S.; Tyteca, S.; Alkama, R.; Belamari, S.; Braun, A.; Coquart, L.; Chauvin, F.

2013-05-01

A new version of the general circulation model CNRM-CM has been developed jointly by CNRM-GAME (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Groupe d'études de l'Atmosphère Météorologique) and Cerfacs (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée) in order to contribute to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The purpose of the study is to describe its main features and to provide a preliminary assessment of its mean climatology. CNRM-CM5.1 includes the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat (v5.2), the ocean model NEMO (v3.2), the land surface scheme ISBA and the sea ice model GELATO (v5) coupled through the OASIS (v3) system. The main improvements since CMIP3 are the following. Horizontal resolution has been increased both in the atmosphere (from 2.8° to 1.4°) and in the ocean (from 2° to 1°). The dynamical core of the atmospheric component has been revised. A new radiation scheme has been introduced and the treatments of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols have been improved. Particular care has been devoted to ensure mass/water conservation in the atmospheric component. The land surface scheme ISBA has been externalised from the atmospheric model through the SURFEX platform and includes new developments such as a parameterization of sub-grid hydrology, a new freezing scheme and a new bulk parameterisation for ocean surface fluxes. The ocean model is based on the state-of-the-art version of NEMO, which has greatly progressed since the OPA8.0 version used in the CMIP3 version of CNRM-CM. Finally, the coupling between the different components through OASIS has also received a particular attention to avoid energy loss and spurious drifts. These developments generally lead to a more realistic representation of the mean recent climate and to a reduction of drifts in a preindustrial integration. The large-scale dynamics is generally improved both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, and the bias in mean surface temperature is clearly reduced. However, some flaws remain such as significant precipitation and radiative biases in many regions, or a pronounced drift in three dimensional salinity.

Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

2000-05-01

A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

Changing carbonate chemistry in ocean waters surrounding coral reefs in the CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Schneider, K.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2012-12-01

Coral reefs comprise some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by a number of stressors, including pollution, bleaching from global warming and ocean acidification. In this study, we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs. We use results from 13 Earth System Models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to examine the changing aragonite saturations (Ωa) of open ocean waters surrounding approximately 6,000 coral reefs. These 13 Earth System Models participating in CMIP5 each have interactive ocean biogeochemistry models that output state variables including DIC, alkalinity, SST, and salinity. Variation in these values were combined with values from the GLODAP database to calculate aragonite, the form of calcium carbonate that corals use to make their skeletons. We used reef locations from ReefBase that were within one degree (in latitude or longitude) of water masses represented both in the GLODAP database and in the climate models. Carbonate chemistry calculations were performed by Dr. James C. Orr (IPSL) as part of a separate study. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9 % of coral reefs were located in regions of the ocean with aragonite saturations of 3.5 or more. The saturation threshold for viable reef ecosystems in uncertain, but the pre-industrial distribution of water chemistry surrounding coral reefs may nevertheless provide some indication of viability. We examine the fate of coral reefs in the context of several potential aragonite saturation thresholds, i.e., when Ωa_crit equals 3, 3.25, or 3.5. We show that under a business-as-usual scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the specific value of Ωa_crit does not affect the long-term fate of coral reefs -- by the end of the 21st century, no coral reef considered is surrounded by water with Ωa> 3. However, under scenarios with significant CO2 emissions abatement, the aragonite saturation threshold is critical to projecting the fate of coral reefs -- under RCP 4.5, less than 5% of reefs are surrounded by waters with Ωa < 3.5 by the end of the century, but nearly half are still surrounded by waters with saturations greater than 3. Our results indicate that only under a very aggressive emissions elimination (and CO2 air-capture) scenario (RCP 2.6) are a majority of coral reefs projected to remain in waters with Ωa > 3.5 at the end of the century. We find that, except for one model that is an outlier, the spread of aragonite saturation states across earth system models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, implying that these ocean chemistry projections are fairly robust.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes.

PubMed

Li, Ziguang; Lin, Xiaopei; Cai, Wenju

2017-07-10

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.

Recent Progress on Deep Blue Aerosol Algorithm as Applied TO MODIS, SEA WIFS, and VIIRS, and Their Intercomparisons with Ground Based and Other Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, N. Christina; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sawyer, Andrew; Tsay, Si-Chee

2012-01-01

The impact of natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols has gained increasing attention from scientific communities in recent years. Indeed, tropospheric aerosols not only perturb radiative energy balance by interacting with solar and terrestrial radiation, but also by changing cloud properties and lifetime. Furthermore, these anthropogenic and natural air particles, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across oceans and continents resulting in important biogeochemical impacts on the ecosystem. With the launch of SeaWiFS in 1997, Terra/MODIS in 1999, and Aqua/MODIS in 2002, high quality comprehensive aerosol climatology is becoming feasible for the first time. As a result of these unprecedented data records, studies of the radiative and biogeochemical effects due to tropospheric aerosols are now possible. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this newly available SeaWiFS/MODIS aerosol climatology can provide an important piece of puzzles in reducing the uncertainty of estimated climatic forcing due to aerosols. We will start with the global distribution of aerosol loading and their variabilities over both land and ocean on short- and long-term temporal scales observed over the last decade. The recent progress made in Deep Blue aerosol algorithm on improving accuracy of these Sea WiFS / MODIS aerosol products in particular over land will be discussed. The impacts on quantifying physical and optical processes of aerosols over source regions of adding the Deep Blue products of aerosol properties over bright-reflecting surfaces into Sea WiFS / MODIS as well as VIIRS data suite will also be addressed. We will also show the intercomparison results of SeaWiFS/MODIS retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from ground based AERONET sunphotometers over land and ocean as well as with other satellite measurements. The trends observed in global aerosol loadings of both natural and anthropogenic sources based upon more than a decade of combined MODIS/SeaWiFS data (1997-2011) will be discussed. We will also address the importance of various key issues such as differences in spatial-temporal sampling rates and observation time between different satellite measurements could potentially impact these intercomparisons results, especially for using the monthly mean data, and thus on estimates of long-term aerosol trends.

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uotila, Petteri; Goosse, Hugues; Haines, Keith; Chevallier, Matthieu; Barthélemy, Antoine; Bricaud, Clément; Carton, Jim; Fučkar, Neven; Garric, Gilles; Iovino, Doroteaciro; Kauker, Frank; Korhonen, Meri; Lien, Vidar S.; Marnela, Marika; Massonnet, François; Mignac, Davi; Peterson, K. Andrew; Sadikni, Remon; Shi, Li; Tietsche, Steffen; Toyoda, Takahiro; Xie, Jiping; Zhang, Zhaoru

2018-05-01

Global and regional ocean and sea ice reanalysis products (ORAs) are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (Polar ORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project. Several aspects of ten selected ORAs in the Arctic and Antarctic were addressed by concentrating on comparing their mean states in terms of snow, sea ice, ocean transports and hydrography. Most polar diagnostics were carried out for the first time in such an extensive set of ORAs. For the multi-ORA mean state, we found that deviations from observations were typically smaller than individual ORA anomalies, often attributed to offsetting biases of individual ORAs. The ORA ensemble mean therefore appears to be a useful product and while knowing its main deficiencies and recognising its restrictions, it can be used to gain useful information on the physical state of the polar marine environment.

Sentinel-3A Views Ocean Variability More Accurately at Finer Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heslop, E. E.; Sánchez-Román, A.; Pascual, A.; Rodríguez, D.; Reeve, K. A.; Faugère, Y.; Raynal, M.

2017-12-01

This is the first multiplatform evaluation involving data from the new Sentinel-3A altimeter. An experiment was undertaken in the Algerian Basin, employing an ocean glider and a ship mission, along the same track and synchronous with an overpass of the Sentinel-3A mission. This provided three independent views of the ocean velocity field, along a section that encompassed three different oceanographic regimes. The results demonstrate the capacity of Sentinel-3A to retrieve fine-scale oceanographic features ( 20 km). The intercomparison with in situ platforms showed a significant improvement, order 30% in resolution and 42% in velocity accuracy using a synthetic aperture radar mode with respect to lower-resolution mode of conventional altimetry. In addition, the three-platform view provided valuable insight into the variability of evolving oceanographic features, in an area of the Mediterranean that remains chronically under sampled.

Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble

DOE PAGES

Stjern, Camilla W.; Muri, Helene; Ahlm, Lars; ...

2018-01-19

In this paper we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to –1.9 Wm –2, with a substantial inter-model spread of –0.6 to –2.5 Wm –2. The large spread is partly relatedmore » to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2069) –0.96 [–0.17 to –1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of –2.35 [–0.57 to –2.96]% due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.« less

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stjern, Camilla W.; Muri, Helene; Ahlm, Lars

In this paper we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to –1.9 Wm –2, with a substantial inter-model spread of –0.6 to –2.5 Wm –2. The large spread is partly relatedmore » to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2069) –0.96 [–0.17 to –1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of –2.35 [–0.57 to –2.96]% due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.« less

TOPEX/POSEIDON microwave radiometer performance and in-flight calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, C. S.; Keihm, Stephen J.; Subramanya, B.; Janssen, Michael A.

1994-01-01

Results of the in-flight calibration and performance evaluation campaign for the TOPEX/POSEIDON microwave radiometer (TMR) are presented. Intercomparisons are made between TMR and various sources of ground truth, including ground-based microwave water vapor radiometers, radiosondes, global climatological models, special sensor microwave imager data over the Amazon rain forest, and models of clear, calm, subpolar ocean regions. After correction for preflight errors in the processing of thermal/vacuum data, relative channel offsets in the open ocean TMR brightness temperatures were noted at the approximately = 1 K level for the three TMR frequencies. Larger absolute offsets of 6-9 K over the rain forest indicated a approximately = 5% gain error in the three channel calibrations. This was corrected by adjusting the antenna pattern correction (APC) algorithm. AS 10% scale error in the TMR path delay estimates, relative to coincident radiosondes, was corrected in part by the APC adjustment and in part by a 5% modification to the value assumed for the 22.235 FGHz water vapor line strength in the path delay retrieval algorithm. After all in-flight corrections to the calibration, TMR global retrieval accuracy for the wet tropospheric range correction is estimated at 1.1 cm root mean square (RMS) with consistent peformance under clear, cloudy, and windy conditions.

Climatic effects of large-scale deforestation in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Processes in terrestrial ecosystems, to a large extent, are controlled by climate and CO2 concentration. In turn, geographical distribution of vegetation cover strongly affects heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between land surface and atmosphere (biogeophysical effects). Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are now included into Earth System Models (ESMs) in the form of historical and hypothetical future scenarios as a forcing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison project, phase 6 (CMIP6). A propagation of climatic effects from land to the ocean in ESMs allows to investigate a global climate response to LULCC in addition to analysis of local effects over deforested land. One complication in the analysis of global climatic effects of historical and future LULCC scenarios is their relatively small amplitude. To increase the signal-to-noise ratio, the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) suggested an idealized deforestation simulation following a prototype of 1%-CO2 increase experiment commonly used in CMIPs. The idealized experiment allows to investigate - in a harmonized way across models - a response of land surface biophysics and climate to a large-scale deforestation of 20 million km2 distributed over the most forested parts of globe. The forest is removed linearly over a period of 50 years, with an additional 30 years with no specified change in forest cover. Boundary conditions such as CO2 concentration and other forcings are kept at the pre-industrial level. We will present results of idealized deforestation experiments and other sensitivity runs with the CMIP6-version of MPI-ESM, which will be part of the later multi-model comparison. A special focus will be put on less well investigated aspects of LULCC that the idealized setup is particularly well suited for studying, such as non-linearities of the model response to the deforestation forcing and detectability of the signal over time.

The Effect of Changes in the Hadley Circulation on Oceanic Oxygen Minimum Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Cruz Tello, G.; Ummenhofer, C.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2014-12-01

Recent research argued that the Hadley circulation (HC) is composed of three regional cells located at the eastern edges of the ocean basins, rather than a single, globe-encircling cell as the classic textbook view suggests. The HC is expected to expand in concert with global warming, which means that the dry regions beneath the descending branches of the HC are projected to become even drier. Changes in the HC are thus likely to impact freshwater resources on land, as well as the underlying ocean in the subtropics. The eastern edges of ocean basins are characterized by oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), which are regions of very low oxygen concentrations. They affect marine life, as many animals cannot handle the stress caused by such conditions. OMZs have expanded and shoaled in the last 50 years, and they are expected to continue to do so as global climate changes. The purpose of this research is to find links between the projected changes in OMZs and the HC. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM), Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiment with a resolution of 0.9 by 1.25 degrees, which formed part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), was used for this analysis. Meridional winds and oceanic oxygen concentrations were the primarily analyzed variables. Latitudinal ocean oxygen slices demonstrate the OMZs' location along the eastern edges of ocean basins. Meridional winds overlayed with oxygen concentration are consistent with the idea that surface meridional 'Hadleywise flow' (i.e., towards the equator at the surface and towards the poles aloft) and OMZs are linked through changes in upwelling. Area-averaged time series spanning the historical period through to the end of the 21st century with RCP8.5 confirm that future changes in OMZs and the HC may be connected. Further research could lead to improved understanding of the factors that drive changes in both, which could help anticipate and mitigate the consequences discussed previously.

OCTS and SeaWiFS Bio-Optical Algorithm and Product Validation and Intercomparison in US Coastal Waters. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Christopher W.; Subramaniam, Ajit; Culver, Mary; Brock, John C.

2001-01-01

Monitoring the health of US coastal waters is an important goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Satellite sensors are capable of providing daily synoptic data of large expanses of the US coast. Ocean color sensors, in particular, can be used to monitor the water quality of coastal waters on an operational basis. To appraise the validity of satellite-derived measurements, such as chlorophyll concentration, the bio-optical algorithms used to derive them must be evaluated in coastal environments. Towards this purpose, over 21 cruises in diverse US coastal waters have been conducted. Of these 21 cruises, 12 have been performed in conjunction with and under the auspices of the NASA/Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project. The primary goal of these cruises has been to obtain in-situ measurements of downwelling irradiance, upwelling radiance, and chlorophyll concentrations in order to evaluate bio-optical algorithms that estimate chlorophyll concentration. In this Technical Memorandum, we evaluate the ability of five bio-optical algorithms, including the current Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) algorithm, to estimate chlorophyll concentration in surface waters of the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). The SAB consists of a variety of environments including coastal and continental shelf regimes, Gulf Stream waters, and the Sargasso Sea. The biological and optical characteristics of the region is complicated by temporal and spatial variability in phytoplankton composition, primary productivity, and the concentrations of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and suspended sediment. As such, the SAB is an ideal location to test the robustness of algorithms for coastal use.

Intercomparison of Satellite Derived Gravity Time Series with Inferred Gravity Time Series from TOPEX/POSEIDON Sea Surface Heights and Climatological Model Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, C.; Au, A.; Klosko, S.; Chao, B.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The upcoming GRACE mission promises to open a window on details of the global mass budget that will have remarkable clarity, but it will not directly answer the question of what the state of the Earth's mass budget is over the critical last quarter of the 20th century. To address that problem we must draw upon existing technologies such as SLR, DORIS, and GPS, and climate modeling runs in order to improve our understanding. Analysis of long-period geopotential changes based on SLR and DORIS tracking has shown that addition of post 1996 satellite tracking data has a significant impact on the recovered zonal rates and long-period tides. Interannual effects such as those causing the post 1996 anomalies must be better characterized before refined estimates of the decadal period changes in the geopotential can be derived from the historical database of satellite tracking. A possible cause of this anomaly is variations in ocean mass distribution, perhaps associated with the recent large El Nino/La Nina. In this study, a low-degree spherical harmonic gravity time series derived from satellite tracking is compared with a TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived sea surface height time series. Corrections for atmospheric mass effects, continental hydrology, snowfall accumulation, and ocean steric model predictions will be considered.

Response of wheat yield in Spain to large-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

2016-04-01

Crops are vulnerable to extreme climate conditions as drought, heat stress and frost risk. In previous study we have quantified the influence of these climate conditions for winter wheat in Spain (Hernandez-Barrera et al. 2015). The climate extremes respond to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Therefore, a question emerges in our investigation: How large-scale patterns affect wheat yield? Obtaining and understanding these relationships require different approaches. In this study, we first obtained the leading mode of observed wheat yield variability to characterize the common variability over different provinces in Spain. Then, the wheat variability is related to different modes of mean sea level pressure, jet stream and sea surface temperature by using Partial Least-Squares, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield from sowing to harvesting. We used the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (ERSST v3b). The derived model provides insight about the teleconnections between wheat yield and atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which is considered to project the wheat yield trend under global warming using outputs of twelve climate models corresponding to the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Hernandez-Barrera S., C. Rodríguez-Puebla and A.J. Challinor. Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (submitted)

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garand, L.; Turner, D. S.; Larocque, M.; Bates, J.; Boukabara, S.; Brunel, P.; Chevallier, F.; Deblonde, G.; Engelen, R.; Hollingshead, M.;

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garand, L.; Turner, D. S.; Larocque, M.; Bates, J.; Boukabara, S.; Brunel, P.; Chevallier, F.; Deblonde, G.; Engelen, R.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: seven HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and four AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evidenced by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances, but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle and more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences. Recommendations for future intercomparisons are suggested.

SIMBIOS Project 1999 Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Fargion, Giulietta S.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this technical memorandum is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

SIMBIOS Project 1998 Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Fargion, Giulietta, S.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this series of technical reports is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Ocean Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant to substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issues by an operational project.

Marine anthropogenic radiotracers in the Southern Hemisphere: New sampling and analytical strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, I.; Povinec, P. P.; Aoyama, M.; Hirose, K.; Sanchez-Cabeza, J. A.; Comanducci, J.-F.; Gastaud, J.; Eriksson, M.; Hamajima, Y.; Kim, C. S.; Komura, K.; Osvath, I.; Roos, P.; Yim, S. A.

2011-04-01

The Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology conducted in 2003-2004 the Blue Earth Global Expedition (BEAGLE2003) around the Southern Hemisphere Oceans, which was a rare opportunity to collect many seawater samples for anthropogenic radionuclide studies. We describe here sampling and analytical methodologies based on radiochemical separations of Cs and Pu from seawater, as well as radiometric and mass spectrometry measurements. Several laboratories took part in radionuclide analyses using different techniques. The intercomparison exercises and analyses of certified reference materials showed a reasonable agreement between the participating laboratories. The obtained data on the distribution of 137Cs and plutonium isotopes in seawater represent the most comprehensive results available for the Southern Hemisphere Oceans.

A Bootstrap Algorithm for Mixture Models and Interval Data in Inter-Comparisons

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

parametric bootstrap. The present algorithm will be applied to a thermometric inter-comparison, where data cannot be assumed to be normally distributed. 2 Data...experimental methods, used in each laboratory) often imply that the statistical assumptions are not satisfied, as for example in several thermometric ...triangular). Indeed, in thermometric experiments these three probabilistic models can represent several common stochastic variabilities for

Enabling Reanalysis Intercomparison with the CREATE-IP and CREATE-V Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; Hertz, J.; Shen, Y.; Britzolakis, G.; Peters, J.; Maxwell, T. P.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Schnase, J. L.

2016-12-01

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Office of Computational and Information Sciences and Technology, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS), and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) are working together to build a uniform environment for the comparative study and use of a group of reanalysis datasets of particular importance to the research community. This effort is called the Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment (CREATE) and it contains two components: the CREATE-Intercomparison Project (CREATE-IP) and CREATE-V. For CREATE-IP, our target reanalyses include ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA and MERRA2, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR and 20CRv2, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. Each dataset is reformatted similarly to the models in the CMIP5 archive. By repackaging the reanalysis data into a common structure and format, it simplifies access, subsetting, and reanalysis comparison. Both monthly average data and a selection of high frequency data (6-hr) relevant to investigations such as the 2016 El Niño are provided. Much of the processing workflow has been automated and new data appear on a regular basis. In collaboration with the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP), we are also processing and publishing eight ocean reanalyses, from 1980 to the present. Here, the data are regridded to a common 1° x 1° grid, vertically interpolated to the World Ocean Atlas 09 (WOA09) depths, and an ensemble is generated. CREATE-V is a web based visualization tool that allows the user to simultaneously view four reanalyses to facilitate comparison. The addition of a backend analytics engine, based on UV-CDAT and Scala provides the ability to generate a time series and anomaly for any given location on a map. The system enables scientists to identify data of interest and visualize, subset, and compare data without the need for download large volumes of data for local visualization.

Status of High Latitude Precipitation Estimates from Observations and Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behrangi, Ali; Christensen, Matthew; Richardson, Mark; Lebsock, Matthew; Stephens, Graeme; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert F.; Gardner, Alex; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.;

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyarzún, Damián; Brierley, Chris M.

2018-03-01

The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21st Century. This relates to an intensification of ocean stratification under global warming as shown by the sea water temperature profiles. Additionally, a divergence between the Ekman layer and thermocline depths is also evidenced. Given the interaction of upwelled nutrients and microscopic organisms essential for fish growth, a potential decline of coastal upwelling at depth could lead to unknown ecological and socio-economical effects.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

PubMed

Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

2016-03-01

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on North Atlantic Sector Surface Air Temperature and its Predictability in the Kiel Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the North Atlantic sector surface air temperature (SAT) in two multi-millennial control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). One model version employs a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic, while the other does not. A clear influence of the AMOC on North Atlantic sector SAT only is simulated in the corrected model that depicts much reduced upper ocean salinity and temperature biases in comparison to the uncorrected model. Further, the model with much reduced biases depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector relative to the uncorrected model. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected model is due to a stronger and more variable AMOC and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SST and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

Low level measurements of atmospheric DMS, H2S, and SO2 for GTE/CITE-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Eric; Cooper, David

1991-01-01

This project involved the measurement of atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMS) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) as part of the GTE/CITE-3 instrument intercomparison program. The two instruments were adapted for use on the NASA Electra aircraft and participated in all phases of the mission. This included ground-based measurements of NIST-provided standard gases and a series of airborne missions over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Analytical techniques used are described and the results are summarized.

Comparison of hydrological signal in polar motion excitation with those based on the FGOALS-g2 climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

2016-04-01

Our investigations are focused on the influence of different land hydrosphere surface parameters (precipitation, evaporation, total runoff, soil moisture, accumulated snow) on polar motion excitation functions at seasonal and nonseasonal timescales. Here these different variables are obtained from the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Grid point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), which is a climate model from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5); with CMIP5 being composed of separate component models of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. In this study Terrestrial Water Storage TWS changes were determined as: differences between the precipitation, evaporation and total surface runoff content, and as the total soil moisture content being a sum of soil moisture and snowfall flux changes. We compare the model-based data with those from estimates of the Equivalent Water Thickness determined by GRACE satellite observations from the Center for Space Research (CSR). The transfer of angular momentum from global geophysical fluids to the solid Earth is described by the equatorial components χ1 and χ2 of the polar motion excitation functions. Observationally, these so-called geodetic excitation functions of polar motion can be determined on the basis of the equations of motion by using observed x, y components of the pole. The second-degree, first-order coefficients of the Earth gravity field are proportional to variations of the equatorial component χ1, χ2 of the series of the gravimetric excitation function of polar motion. This gravimetric function can be compared with the mass term of geodetic excitation of polar motion. Our analysis comprises (1) determinations and comparisons of regional patterns of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, and (2) comparison of the global hydrological function determined from the FGOALS-g2 and GRACE data with a hydrological signal in the geodetic excitation function of polar motion, determined as a residual geodetic and atmospheric plus oceanic excitations.

Observation- and model-based estimates of particulate dry nitrogen deposition to the oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Alex R.; Kanakidou, Maria; Altieri, Katye E.; Daskalakis, Nikos; Okin, Gregory S.; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Dentener, Frank; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Sarin, Manmohan M.; Duce, Robert A.; Galloway, James N.; Keene, William C.; Singh, Arvind; Zamora, Lauren; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Rohekar, Shital S.; Prospero, Joseph M.

2017-07-01

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, ˜ 2900 observations of aerosol NO3- and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995-2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes; however, these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux, are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here, the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the Tracer Model 4 of the Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (TM4): ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3- and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3- and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3- and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model-observation ratios (RA, n), weighted by grid-cell area and number of observations, were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 overestimates NO3- concentrations (RA, n = 1.4-2.9) and underestimates NH4+ concentrations (RA, n = 0.5-0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA, n = 0.6-2.6 for NO3-, 0.6-3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA, n for NHx CalDep-ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep-ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model-observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species' concentrations, and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.

Observation- and Model-Based Estimates of Particulate Dry Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans.

PubMed

Baker, Alex R; Kanakidou, Maria; Altieri, Katye E; Daskalakis, Nikos; Okin, Gregory S; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Dentener, Frank; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Sarin, Manmohan M; Duce, Robert A; Galloway, James N; Keene, William C; Singh, Arvind; Zamora, Lauren; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Rohekar, Shital S; Prospero, Joseph M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO 3 - ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, ~2900 observations of aerosol NO 3 - and NH 4 + concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes, however these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NO y ) and reduced N (NH x ) and to the following parameters from the TM4-ECPL (TM4) model: ModDep for NO y , NH x and particulate NO 3 - and NH 4 + , and surface-level particulate NO 3 - and NH 4 + concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO 3 - and NH 4 + ) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model - observation ratios, weighted by grid-cell area and numbers of observations, (R A,n ) were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 over-estimates NO 3 - concentrations (R A,n = 1.4 - 2.9) and under-estimates NH 4 + concentrations (R A,n = 0.5 - 0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH 4 + in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (R A,n = 0.6 - 2.6 for NO 3 - , 0.6 - 3.1 for NH 4 + ). Values of R A,n for NH x CalDep - ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH 4 + CalDep - ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH 3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NH x model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model - observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species concentrations and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Kyung-Ja; Seo, Ye-Won; Lee, June-Yi; Kripalani, R. H.; Yun, Kyung-Sook

2017-07-01

The relationship between the South Asia monsoon (SAM) and the East Asia monsoon (EAM) possibly modulated by both external forcings and internal dynamics has been a long-standing and controversial issue in climate sciences. This study reviews their linkages as revealed in modern records and model simulations during the past, present and future, and provides a comprehensive explanation of the key mechanisms controlling the diversity of the SAM-EAM relationship. Particular attention is paid to several external forcings that modulate the relationship, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IODM), boreal summer teleconnections, and Eurasian snow extent on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The major focus is placed on two integral views of the inter-connection between the two monsoon systems: one is the positive inter-correlation, which is associated with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twenty-first century.

The 1995 North American Interagency Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers

PubMed Central

Early, Edward; Thompson, Ambler; Johnson, Carol; DeLuisi, John; Disterhoft, Patrick; Wardle, David; Wu, Edmund; Mou, Wanfeng; Sun, Yongchen; Lucas, Timothy; Mestechkina, Tanya; Harrison, Lee; Berndt, Jerry; Hayes, Douglas S.

1998-01-01

Concern over stratospheric ozone depletion has prompted several government agencies in North America to establish networks of spectroradiometers for monitoring solar ultraviolet irradiance at the surface of the Earth. To assess the ability of spectroradiometers to accurately measure solar ultraviolet irradiance, and to compare the results between instruments of different monitoring networks, the second North American Intercomparison of Ultraviolet Monitoring Spectroradiometers was held June 12 to 23, 1995 at Table Mountain outside Boulder, Colorado, USA. This Intercomparison was coordinated by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency; the National Science Foundation; the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; the Department of Agriculture; and the Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada. Instruments were characterized for wavelength uncertainty, bandwidth, stray-light rejection, and spectral irradiance responsivity, the latter with a NIST standard lamp operating in a specially designed field calibration unit. The spectral irradiance responsivity, determined once indoors and twice outdoors, demonstrated that while the responsivities changed upon moving the instruments, they were relatively stable when the instruments remained outdoors. Synchronized spectral scans of the solar irradiance were performed over several days. Using the spectral irradiance responsivities determined with the NIST standard lamp and three different convolution functions to account for the different bandwidths of the instruments, the measured solar irradiances generally agreed to within 3 %. PMID:28009371

The UK Earth System Models Marine Biogeochemical Evaluation Toolkit, BGC-val

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Mora, Lee

2017-04-01

The Biogeochemical Validation toolkit, BGC-val, is a model and grid independent python-based marine model evaluation framework that automates much of the validation of the marine component of an Earth System Model. BGC-val was initially developed to be a flexible and extensible system to evaluate the spin up of the marine UK Earth System Model (UKESM). However, the grid-independence and flexibility means that it is straightforward to adapt the BGC-val framework to evaluate other marine models. In addition to the marine component of the UKESM, this toolkit has been adapted to compare multiple models, including models from the CMIP5 and iMarNet inter-comparison projects. The BGC-val toolkit produces multiple levels of analysis which are presented in a simple to use interactive html5 document. Level 1 contains time series analyses, showing the development over time of many important biogeochemical and physical ocean metrics, such as the Global primary production or the Drake passage current. The second level of BGC-val is an in-depth spatial analyses of a single point in time. This is a series of point to point comparison of model and data in various regions, such as a comparison of Surface Nitrate in the model vs data from the world ocean atlas. The third level analyses are specialised ad-hoc packages to go in-depth on a specific question, such as the development of Oxygen minimum zones in the Equatorial Pacific. In additional to the three levels, the html5 document opens with a Level 0 table showing a summary of the status of the model run. The beta version of this toolkit is available via the Plymouth Marine Laboratory Gitlab server and uses the BSD 3 clause license.

FACE-IT. A Science Gateway for Food Security Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montella, Raffaele; Kelly, David; Xiong, Wei

Progress in sustainability science is hindered by challenges in creating and managing complex data acquisition, processing, simulation, post-processing, and intercomparison pipelines. To address these challenges, we developed the Framework to Advance Climate, Economic, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology (FACE-IT) for crop and climate impact assessments. This integrated data processing and simulation framework enables data ingest from geospatial archives; data regridding, aggregation, and other processing prior to simulation; large-scale climate impact simulations with agricultural and other models, leveraging high-performance and cloud computing; and post-processing to produce aggregated yields and ensemble variables needed for statistics, for model intercomparison, and to connectmore » biophysical models to global and regional economic models. FACE-IT leverages the capabilities of the Globus Galaxies platform to enable the capture of workflows and outputs in well-defined, reusable, and comparable forms. We describe FACE-IT and applications within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy.« less

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Global Monsoon Change During the Last Glacial Maximum: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Change of Global Monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of 7 coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) The annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10% and 5%, respectively; (2) The monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer-minus-winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) The monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) Distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960

DOE PAGES

Smith, Doug M.; Allan, Richard P.; Coward, Andrew C.; ...

2015-02-19

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21more » W m -2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.« less

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

PubMed Central

Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2018-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2016-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Jae H. (Editor); Ko, Malcolm K. W. (Editor); Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Plumb, R. Alan (Editor); Kaye, Jack A. (Editor); Sage, Karen H. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

Bidirectional reflectance correction model for coastal water and its application to minimization of uncertainties in satellite and in-situ water leaving radiances at Long Island Sound Coastal Observatory site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlaing, Soe Min

Ocean Color data validation is the absolute requirement to provide the steady and reliable Ocean Color data stream. In the validation of Ocean Color data, water-leaving radiances, retrieved from in situ or satellite measurements, need to be compared in very accurate manner. Both in-situ and satellite data to be used in the comparisons are required to be the representative of the typical water and environmental condition at the site without being affected by the unexpected natural and environmental perturbation. As the result, assessments of the uncertainties in the water leaving radiance data must be carried out in the measurement and the every step of data processing procedure. With the hyper- and multi-spectral water leaving radiance data retrieved for the different viewing geometries of the instruments at the Long Island Sound Coastal Observatory (LISCO), uncertainties in the water leaving radiance data and processing procedures have been assessed and quantified. Recommendations and algorithm improvements have been also made to reduce the uncertainties in the processing and validation of Ocean Color data. Particularly, remote sensing reflectance model to correct the bidirectional angular dependencies in both in-situ and satellite data have been proposed. The proposed model is first validated with a one year time series of in situ above-water measurements acquired by collocated multi- and hyper-spectral radiometers which have different viewing geometries installed at LISCO. Match-ups and inter-comparisons performed on these concurrent measurements show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the algorithm currently in use at all wavelengths, with spectral average improvement of 2.4%. LISCO's time series data has also been used to evaluate improvements in the match-up comparisons of MODIS satellite data when the proposed Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) correction is used in lieu of the current algorithm. It has been shown that the discrepancies between coincident in-situ sea-based and satellite data were decreased by 3.15% with the use of the proposed algorithm. Possibility of the application of the developed BRDF algorithm for the open ocean conditions is also considered.

Design and development of a community carbon cycle benchmarking system for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-12-01

Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical period. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we designed and developed a software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. We used this system to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs). Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of climate, including the climatological mean spatial pattern of gridded surface variables, seasonal cycle dynamics, the amplitude of interannual variability, and long-term decadal trends. We used this system to evaluate burned area, global biomass stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration from CMIP5 historical simulations. Initial results indicated that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most of the observational constraints.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N Willner, Sven; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production andmore » respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system (Hartin et al. 2016). The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2. These were developed to cover the range of baseline and mitigation emissions scenarios and are widely used in climate change research and model intercomparison projects. Using DataFrames from the Python library Pandas (McKinney 2010) as a data structure for the scenarios simplifies generating and adapting scenarios. Other parameters of the Hector model can easily be modified when running the model. Pyhector can be installed using pip from the Python Package Index.3 Source code and issue tracker are available in Pyhector's GitHub repository4. Documentation is provided through Readthedocs5. Usage examples are also contained in the repository as a Jupyter Notebook (Pérez and Granger 2007; Kluyver et al. 2016). Courtesy of the Mybinder project6, the example Notebook can also be executed and modified without installing Pyhector locally.« less

Monsoons and ITCZ in TRACMIP, the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, M.; Voigt, A.; Scheff, J.

2016-12-01

TRACMIP consists of a set of five experiments performed by an ensemble of GCMs and conceived as a link in the hierarchy between the CFMIP/CMIP5 Aqua experiments and the CMIP5 comprehensive simulations. The basic configuration is an aquaplanet AGCM coupled to a slab ocean. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRACMIP fills the gap between Aquaplanets with prescribed SSTs and fully-coupled realistic CMIP5 simulations. Adding to the basic Aquaplanet configuration a highly-idealized tropical continent allows the investigation of the role of zonal asymmetries in the dynamics of the ITCZ and of the source of the observed differences between land convection and monsoon circulations on one hand, and oceanic convection in the ITCZ and the Warm Pool on the other. Finally, by including both key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (orbital changes in insolation), TRACMIP contributes to the "past to future (P2F)" efforts to connect the climate response to different forcings via a basic understanding of the mechanisms at play. TRACMIP includes the participation of both CMIP5 comprehensive climate models and a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between GCMs results and theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between the climatologies of the oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate the extent to which established zonal-mean ITCZ frameworks contain information about regional rainfall characteristics. Second, we will investigate the response to quadrupling the CO2 concentration and to orbital changes, comparing the multi-model mean response and the inter-model scatter to responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, paying special attention to the way in which land responds differently than ocean and even, with its presence, modifies the response of the oceanic ITCZ to external forcings.

High Resolution Numerical Simulations and Diagnostic Studies Atmospheric Transport During TRACE-A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Fuelberg, Henry

1995-01-01

The enclosed publications constitute our final report. These are publications completed in referred journals. The completed work includes: Meteorological conditions associated with vertical distributions of aerosols off the west coast of Africa. TRACE-A trajectory intercomparison 2. Isentropic and kinematic methods. Chemical characteristics of tropospheric air over the tropical South Atlantic Ocean: Relationship to trajectory history. Passive Tracer Transport Relevant to the TRACE-A Experiment. The meteorological environment of the tropospheric ozone maximum over the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. : Influence of a middle-latitude cyclone on tropospheric ozone distributions during a period of TRACE-A. All of this work provided the meteorological background for the Transport of Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator (TRACE-A) project sponsored by Dr,, Joe McNeal of NASA. Our principal findings are that bio-mass burning sources from Africa and South America did contribute to the accumulation of tropospheric ozone over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Other findings relate to circulations, advections of Ozone and other plausible sources for the TOMS based ozone maximum over the Atlantic Ocean.

An analysis of errors in special sensor microwave imager evaporation estimates over the global oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esbensen, S. K.; Chelton, D. B.; Vickers, D.; Sun, J.

1993-01-01

The method proposed by Liu (1984) is used to estimate monthly averaged evaporation over the global oceans from 1 yr of special sensor microwave imager (SDSM/I) data. Intercomparisons involving SSM/I and in situ data are made over a wide range of oceanic conditions during August 1987 and February 1988 to determine the source of errors in the evaporation estimates. The most significant spatially coherent evaporation errors are found to come from estimates of near-surface specific humidity, q. Systematic discrepancies of over 2 g/kg are found in the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. The q errors are partitioned into contributions from the parameterization of q in terms of the columnar water vapor, i.e., the Liu q/W relationship, and from the retrieval algorithm for W. The effects of W retrieval errors are found to be smaller over most of the global oceans and due primarily to the implicitly assumed vertical structures of temperature and specific humidity on which the physically based SSM/I retrievals of W are based.

A Synthesis of VIIRS Solar and Lunar Calibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eplee, Robert E.; Turpie, Kevin R.; Meister, Gerhard; Patt, Frederick S.; Fireman, Gwyn F.; Franz, Bryan A.; McClain, Charles R.

2013-01-01

The NASA VIIRS Ocean Science Team (VOST) has developed two independent calibrations of the SNPP VIIRS moderate resolution reflective solar bands using solar diffuser and lunar observations through June 2013. Fits to the solar calibration time series show mean residuals per band of 0.078-0.10%. There are apparent residual lunar libration correlations in the lunar calibration time series that are not accounted for by the ROLO photometric model of the Moon. Fits to the lunar time series that account for residual librations show mean residuals per band of 0.071-0.17%. Comparison of the solar and lunar time series shows that the relative differences in the two calibrations are 0.12-0.31%. Relative uncertainties in the VIIRS solar and lunar calibration time series are comparable to those achieved for SeaWiFS, Aqua MODIS, and Terra MODIS. Intercomparison of the VIIRS lunar time series with those from SeaWiFS, Aqua MODIS, and Terra MODIS shows that the scatter in the VIIRS lunar observations is consistent with that observed for the heritage instruments. Based on these analyses, the VOST has derived a calibration lookup table for VIIRS ocean color data based on fits to the solar calibration time series.

The Gulf Stream in Ocean Reanalyses: 1993-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, L.; Wolfe, C.; Hameed, S.

2017-12-01

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of high-resolution ocean reanalysis products. However, errors are likely to remain because of inadequate coverage of observations, model resolutions, physical parameterizations, etc. We compare the representation of the Gulf Stream (GS) in several widely used global reanalysis products with resolutions ranging from 1° to 1/12°. This intercomparison focuses on the Florida Current transport, the separation of GS near Cape Hatteras, GS properties along the Oleander Line (from New Jersey to Bermuda), GS path and the GS north wall positions between 73°W and 55°W. A large spread exists across the reanalysis products. HYCOM and GLORYS2v4 stand out for their top performance in most metrics. Some common biases are found in all discussed products; for example, the velocity structure of the GS near the Oleander Line is too symmetric and the maximum velocity is weaker than in observations. In addition, the annual mean values of GS separation latitude near Cape Hatteras, the GS transport, and net transport across Oleander Line (which runs from New Jersey to Bermuda), less than half of the reanalysis products are correlated to the observations at 95% confidence level.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

2018-04-01

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

2016-04-01

The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment.

Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

2017-04-01

Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E.

2016-09-01

The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic transit shipping. By midcentury for standard open water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice-ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by midcentury, and 13 days faster by late century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse gas emissions have a larger impact by late century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial interannual variability. Moderately, ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late century.

Reducing uncertainty in Climate Response Time Scale by Bayesian Analysis of the 8.2 ka event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, A.; Held, H.; Bauer, E.; Schneider von Deimling, T.

2009-04-01

We analyze the possibility of uncertainty reduction in Climate Response Time Scale by utilizing Greenland ice-core data that contain the 8.2 ka event within a Bayesian model-data intercomparison with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3. Within a stochastic version of the model it has been possible to mimic the 8.2 ka event within a plausible experimental setting and with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modeling exercises [1]. The simulation of the centennial cold event is effectively determined by the oceanic cooling rate which depends largely on the ocean diffusivity described by diffusion coefficients of relatively wide uncertainty ranges. The idea now is to discriminate between the different values of diffusivities according to their likelihood to rightly represent the duration of the 8.2 ka event and thus to exploit the paleo data to constrain uncertainty in model parameters in analogue to [2]. Implementing this inverse Bayesian Analysis with this model the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically in addition to the uncertain model parameters: While mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study [3] the Bayesian Analysis showed a reduction of uncertainty in vertical ocean diffusivity parameters of factor 2 compared to prior knowledge. This learning effect on the model parameters is propagated to other model outputs of interest; e.g. the inverse ocean heat capacity, which is important for the dominant time scale of climate response to anthropogenic forcing which, in combination with climate sensitivity, strongly influences the climate systems reaction for the near- and medium-term future. 1 References [1] E. Bauer, A. Ganopolski, M. Montoya: Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from lake Agassiz. Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, (2004) [2] T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8 (2006). [3] A. Lorenz, Diploma Thesis, U Potsdam (2007).

Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stjern, Camilla W.; Muri, Helene; Ahlm, Lars

Here we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to −1.9 W m −2, with a substantial inter-model spread of −0.6 to −2.5 W m −2. The large spread is partly related to the considerable differences inmore » clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2069) −0.96 [−0.17 to −1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of −2.35 [−0.57 to −2.96] % due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.« less

The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Copsey, D.; Blockley, E. W.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Calvert, D.; Comer, R.; Davis, P.; Graham, T.; Hewitt, H. T.; Hill, R.; Hyder, P.; Ineson, S.; Johns, T. C.; Keen, A. B.; Lee, R. W.; Megann, A.; Milton, S. F.; Rae, J. G. L.; Roberts, M. J.; Scaife, A. A.; Schiemann, R.; Storkey, D.; Thorpe, L.; Watterson, I. G.; Walters, D. N.; West, A.; Wood, R. A.; Woollings, T.; Xavier, P. K.

2018-02-01

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present-day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2-AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2-AO, many aspects of the present-day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top-of-atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking.

Volume 35, AMT-1 Cruise Report and Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Robins, David B.; Bale, Anthony J.; Moore, Gerald F.; Rees, Nigel W.; Gallienne, Christopher P.; Westbrooke, Anthony G.; Maranon, Emilio; Spooner, William H.;

The G4Foam Experiment: Global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabriel, Corey J.; Robock, Alan; Xia, Lili

Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM CAM4-Chem global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is increased over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. In theory, this could be accomplished using a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles. Such amore » foam has been developed under idealized conditions, although deployment at a large scale is presently infeasible. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through to 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is set to 0.15 (an increase of 150%) over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, against a background of the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6Wm -2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario. After 2069, geoengineering is ceased, and the simulation is run for an additional 20 years. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30°N. There is an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June–July–August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America, and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of -1.5 W m -2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. Finally, the precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.« less

The G4Foam Experiment: Global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification

DOE PAGES

Gabriel, Corey J.; Robock, Alan; Xia, Lili; ...

2017-01-12

Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM CAM4-Chem global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is increased over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. In theory, this could be accomplished using a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles. Such amore » foam has been developed under idealized conditions, although deployment at a large scale is presently infeasible. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through to 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is set to 0.15 (an increase of 150%) over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, against a background of the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6Wm -2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario. After 2069, geoengineering is ceased, and the simulation is run for an additional 20 years. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30°N. There is an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June–July–August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America, and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of -1.5 W m -2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. Finally, the precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.« less

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Exploring diurnal and seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle with GISS Model E2 GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.

2017-12-01

The ability to properly model surface carbon fluxes on the diurnal and seasonal time scale is a necessary requirement for understanding of the global carbon cycle. It is also one of the most challenging tasks faced by modern General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to complexity of the algorithms and variety of relevant spatial and temporal scales. The observational data, though abundant, is difficult to interpret at the global scale, because flux tower observations are very sparse for large impact areas (such as Amazon and African rainforest and most of Siberia) and satellite missions often struggle to produce sufficiently high confidence data over the land and may be missing CO2 amounts near the surface due to the nature of the method. In this work we use the GISS Model E2 GCM to perform a subset of experiments proposed by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and relate the results to available observations.The GISS Model E2 GCM is currently equipped with a complete global carbon cycle algorithm. Its surface carbon fluxes are computed by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) over the land with observed leaf area index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and by the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) over the ocean. The propagation of atmospheric CO2 is performed by a generic Model E2 tracer algorithm, which is based on a quadratic upstream method (Prather 1986). We perform a series spin-up experiments for preindustrial climate conditions and fixed preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. First, we perform separate spin-up simulations each for terrestrial and ocean carbon. We then combine the spun-up states and perform a coupled spin-up simulation until the model reaches a sufficient equilibrium. We then release restrictions on CO2 concentration and allow it evolve freely, driven only by simulated surface fluxes. We then study the results of the unforced run, comparing the amplitude and the phase of diurnal and seasonal variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration to selected flux tower observations and OCO-2 satellite datasets.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Jones, James W.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Antle, John M.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Ferry, Nicolas; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Zuo, Hao; Drevillon, Marie; Parent, Laurent

2017-08-01

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993-2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

2016-10-01

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A

2015-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 .

The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

2014-07-01

The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choi, Jung; Lu, Jian; Son, Seok-Woo

This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multi-model analysis, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, shows a robust sea-level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley Cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. However,more » over the eastern North Pacific, the projected NPSH changes exhibit a substantial inter-model spread, resulting in uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This inter-model spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.« less

Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

2018-01-01

The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Anagnostou, Eleni; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.; Caballero, Rodrigo; DeConto, Rob; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donnadieu, Yannick; Evans, David; Feng, Ran;

Decay of deep water convection in CMIP5 GCMs in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsov, S.; Anis, A.; Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.

2016-12-01

Contemporary changes in the climate system due to anthropogenic activity have already resulted in unprecedented melting rates of the polar ice caps. This in turn may have a significant impact on the thermohaline circulation in the future. The freshening of the surface waters increases stable stratification in regions of deep water formation, eventually triggering a weakening and, ultimately, may bring to a cessation of deep convection in these regions. Here we present comparatively an analysis of the response of deep convective processes in the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) to anthropogenic forcing using output from the latest generation of Earth System Models (ESM), part of the CMIP5 intercomparison. Our findings indicate an attenuation of deep convection by the end of the 21st century from ESM simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario when compared to the years under historical scenario in both NA and SO. The average depth of the mixed layer in the regions studied during March/September, the months with maximum mixed layer depths in the NA/SO, respectively, was found to decrease dramatically by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the increase in stratification and decrease in mixed layer depths, resulting in the decay of deep convection, leads to accumulation of excess heat, previously released during the convection events, in the ocean interior in both regions.

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.;

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

2017-03-01

The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

In Situ Aerosol Optical Thickness Collected by the SIMBIOS Program (1997-2000): Protocols, and and Data QC and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fargion, Giulietta S.; Barnes, Robert; McClain, Charles

2001-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project Office activities on in situ aerosol optical thickness (i.e., protocols, and data QC and analysis). This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

Anisotropic mesh adaptation for marine ice-sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Merino, Nacho; Peyaud, Vincent; Brondex, Julien; Durand, Gael; Gagliardini, Olivier

2017-04-01

Improving forecasts of ice-sheets contribution to sea-level rise requires, amongst others, to correctly model the dynamics of the grounding line (GL), i.e. the line where the ice detaches from its underlying bed and goes afloat on the ocean. Many numerical studies, including the intercomparison exercises MISMIP and MISMIP3D, have shown that grid refinement in the GL vicinity is a key component to obtain reliable results. Improving model accuracy while maintaining the computational cost affordable has then been an important target for the development of marine icesheet models. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a method where the accuracy of the solution is controlled by spatially adapting the mesh size. It has become popular in models using the finite element method as they naturally deal with unstructured meshes, but block-structured AMR has also been successfully applied to model GL dynamics. The main difficulty with AMR is to find efficient and reliable estimators of the numerical error to control the mesh size. Here, we use the estimator proposed by Frey and Alauzet (2015). Based on the interpolation error, it has been found effective in practice to control the numerical error, and has some flexibility, such as its ability to combine metrics for different variables, that makes it attractive. Routines to compute the anisotropic metric defining the mesh size have been implemented in the finite element ice flow model Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The mesh adaptation is performed using the freely available library MMG (Dapogny et al., 2014) called from Elmer/Ice. Using a setup based on the inter-comparison exercise MISMIP+ (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), we study the accuracy of the solution when the mesh is adapted using various variables (ice thickness, velocity, basal drag, …). We show that combining these variables allows to reduce the number of mesh nodes by more than one order of magnitude, for the same numerical accuracy, when compared to uniform mesh refinement. For transient solutions where the GL is moving, we have implemented an algorithm where the computation is reiterated allowing to anticipate the GL displacement and to adapt the mesh to the transient solution. We discuss the performance and robustness of this algorithm.

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CORDEX Derived Wind Wave Climate in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, P.; Behera, M. R.

2017-12-01

Climate change impact on surface ocean wave parameters need robust assessment for effective coastal zone management. Climate model skill to simulate dynamical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean is assessed in the present work. The historical dynamical wave climate is simulated using surface winds derived from four GCMs and four RCMs, participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-South Asia), respectively, and their ensemble are used to force a spectral wave model. The surface winds derived from GCMs and RCMs are corrected for bias, using Quantile Mapping method, before being forced to the spectral wave model. The climatological properties of wave parameters (significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tp) and direction (θm)) are evaluated relative to ERA-Interim historical wave reanalysis datasets over Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) regions of the northern Indian Ocean for a period of 27 years. We identify that the nearshore wave climate of AS is better predicted than the BoB by both GCMs and RCMs. Ensemble GCM simulated Hs in AS has a better correlation with ERA-Interim ( 90%) than in BoB ( 80%), whereas ensemble RCM simulated Hs has a low correlation in both regions ( 50% in AS and 45% in BoB). In AS, ensemble GCM simulated Tp has better predictability ( 80%) compared to ensemble RCM ( 65%). However, neither GCM nor RCM could satisfactorily predict Tp in nearshore BoB. Wave direction is poorly simulated by GCMs and RCMs in both AS and BoB, with correlation around 50% with GCMs and 60% with RCMs wind derived simulations. However, upon comparing individual RCMs with their parent GCMs, it is found that few of the RCMs predict wave properties better than their parent GCMs. It may be concluded that there is no consistent added value by RCMs over GCMs forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean. We also identify that there is little to no significance of choosing a finer resolution GCM ( 1.4°) over a coarse GCM ( 2.8°) in improving skill of GCM forced dynamical wave simulations.

Best Practice Guidelines for Pre-Launch Characterization and Calibration of Instruments for Passive Optical Remote Sensing1

PubMed Central

Datla, R. U.; Rice, J. P.; Lykke, K. R.; Johnson, B. C.; Butler, J. J.; Xiong, X.

2011-01-01

The pre-launch characterization and calibration of remote sensing instruments should be planned and carried out in conjunction with their design and development to meet the mission requirements. The onboard calibrators such as blackbodies and the sensors such as spectral radiometers should be characterized and calibrated using SI traceable standards. In the case of earth remote sensing, this allows inter-comparison and intercalibration of different sensors in space to create global time series of climate records of high accuracy where some inevitable data gaps can be easily bridged. The recommended best practice guidelines for this pre-launch effort is presented based on experience gained at National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs over the past two decades. The currently available radiometric standards and calibration facilities at NIST serving the remote sensing community are described. Examples of best practice calibrations and intercomparisons to build SI (international System of Units) traceable uncertainty budget in the instrumentation used for preflight satellite sensor calibration and validation are presented. PMID:26989588

Best Practice Guidelines for Pre-Launch Characterization and Calibration of Instruments for Passive Optical Remote Sensing.

PubMed

Datla, R U; Rice, J P; Lykke, K R; Johnson, B C; Butler, J J; Xiong, X

2011-01-01

The pre-launch characterization and calibration of remote sensing instruments should be planned and carried out in conjunction with their design and development to meet the mission requirements. The onboard calibrators such as blackbodies and the sensors such as spectral radiometers should be characterized and calibrated using SI traceable standards. In the case of earth remote sensing, this allows inter-comparison and intercalibration of different sensors in space to create global time series of climate records of high accuracy where some inevitable data gaps can be easily bridged. The recommended best practice guidelines for this pre-launch effort is presented based on experience gained at National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs over the past two decades. The currently available radiometric standards and calibration facilities at NIST serving the remote sensing community are described. Examples of best practice calibrations and intercomparisons to build SI (international System of Units) traceable uncertainty budget in the instrumentation used for preflight satellite sensor calibration and validation are presented.

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Tilmes, S.; ...

2015-10-27

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more long wave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale formore » those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. In conclusion, this is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.« less

GreenHouse gas Observations of the Stratosphere and Troposphere (GHOST): Deployment of a Novel Shortwave Infrared Spectrometer On Board the NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humpage, N.; Boesch, H.; Palmer, P. I.; Parr-Burman, P.; Vick, A.; Bezawada, N.; Black, M.; Born, A.; Gao, X.; Pearson, D.; Samara-Ratna, P.; Strachan, J.; Wells, M.

2015-12-01

GHOST is a novel, compact shortwave infrared spectrometer, designed for remote sensing of tropospheric columns of greenhouse gases (GHGs) over the ocean from an unmanned aircraft. This is achieved by observing solar radiation at high spectral resolution which has been directly reflected by the ocean surface. The GHOST system has been specifically designed and built to address the following science objectives: 1) testing of atmospheric transport models; 2) validation of GHG column observations over oceans obtained using polar orbiting satellites; and 3) complement in-situ tropopause transition layer observations from other instruments. During January and February 2015 GHOST successfully underwent rigorous environmental testing and was installed on board the Northrop Grumman Global Hawk N872NA, an unmanned aircraft operated by NASA from the Armstrong Flight Research Centre at Edwards Air Force Base, California. Here, we present first results from two Global Hawk flights which took place in March 2015 as part of the CAST-ATTREX campaign. The science flights comprised long, approximately north-south transects over the eastern Pacific Ocean, providing an opportunity to observe spatial trends in GHG column concentrations on regional scale. The second science flight on 10th March 2015 coincided with overpasses from both the NASA OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) and the JAXA GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) satellites, enabling inter-comparison of the GHOST results with total column observations from both satellites. A TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) station was also operational at Edwards during the two flights, allowing the GHOST observations to be validated against ground based total column measurements of GHGs.

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

The Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The minutes and associated documents prepared from presentations and meetings at the Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel meeting in Boulder, Colorado, April 8 - 10, 1992, are presented. Key issues include (1) statistical characterization of data sets: finding statistics that characterize key attributes of the data sets, and defining ways to characterize the comparisons among data sets; (2) selection of specific intercomparison exercises: selecting characteristic spatial and temporal regions for intercomparisons, and impact of validation exercises on the logistics of current and planned field campaigns and model runs; and (3) preparation of data sets for intercomparisons: characterization of assumptions, transportable data formats, labeling data files, content of data sets, and data storage and distribution (EOSDIS interface).

Modeled changes in extreme wave climate for US and US-affiliated Pacific Islands during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, J. B.; Storlazzi, C. D.; Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C.

2013-12-01

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Waves are the dominant spatially- and temporally-varying processes that influence the coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact the coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of these islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5., for Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall, the December-February extreme significant wave heights increase from present to mid century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights decrease throughout the century. Peak wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line through all seasons, whereas peak periods increase in the eastern half of the study area; these trends are smaller during December-February and greatest during June-August. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30 degree counter-clockwise rotation from primarily northwest to west. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude of the trends greater for the higher scenario.

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to the Development of Improved Multi-Sensor Retrievals of Near-Surface Air Temperature and Humidity Over Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Clayson, Carol Anne

2012-01-01

Improved estimates of near-surface air temperature and air humidity are critical to the development of more accurate turbulent surface heat fluxes over the ocean. Recent progress in retrieving these parameters has been made through the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and the use of multi-sensor passive microwave observations. Details are provided on the development of an improved retrieval algorithm that applies the nonlinear statistical ANN methodology to a set of observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) that are currently available from the NASA AQUA satellite platform. Statistical inversion techniques require an adequate training dataset to properly capture embedded physical relationships. The development of multiple training datasets containing only in-situ observations, only synthetic observations produced using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), or a mixture of each is discussed. An intercomparison of results using each training dataset is provided to highlight the relative advantages and disadvantages of each methodology. Particular emphasis will be placed on the development of retrievals in cloudy versus clear-sky conditions. Near-surface air temperature and humidity retrievals using the multi-sensor ANN algorithms are compared to previous linear and non-linear retrieval schemes.

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaffen, Dian J.; Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Boyle, James S.

1997-01-01

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examinemore » (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.« less

IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Three-dimensional test cases (phase B)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Wang, Zhen; Labonotte, Laurent C.; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

2018-04-01

Initially unpolarized solar radiation becomes polarized by scattering in the Earth's atmosphere. In particular molecular scattering (Rayleigh scattering) polarizes electromagnetic radiation, but also scattering of radiation at aerosols, cloud droplets (Mie scattering) and ice crystals polarizes. Each atmospheric constituent produces a characteristic polarization signal, thus spectro-polarimetric measurements are frequently employed for remote sensing of aerosol and cloud properties. Retrieval algorithms require efficient radiative transfer models. Usually, these apply the plane-parallel approximation (PPA), assuming that the atmosphere consists of horizontally homogeneous layers. This allows to solve the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) efficiently. For remote sensing applications, the radiance is considered constant over the instantaneous field-of-view of the instrument and each sensor element is treated independently in plane-parallel approximation, neglecting horizontal radiation transport between adjacent pixels (Independent Pixel Approximation, IPA). In order to estimate the errors due to the IPA approximation, three-dimensional (3D) vector radiative transfer models are required. So far, only a few such models exist. Therefore, the International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to provide benchmark results for polarized radiative transfer. The group has already performed an intercomparison for one-dimensional (1D) multi-layer test cases [phase A, 1]. This paper presents the continuation of the intercomparison project (phase B) for 2D and 3D test cases: a step cloud, a cubic cloud, and a more realistic scenario including a 3D cloud field generated by a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model and typical background aerosols. The commonly established benchmark results for 3D polarized radiative transfer are available at the IPRT website (http://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/ iprt).

The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data

DOE PAGES

Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; ...

2014-12-05

Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model model and model observation comparisons. Inmore » this article, we describe the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs and lessons learned from past model intercomparison activities, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover change (LULCC), C3 / C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5⁰ x 0.5⁰ resolution) and regional (North American: 0.25⁰ x 0.25⁰ resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by improving the quality, and/or changing their spatial and temporal coverage, and resolution. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating in MsTMIP. Lastly, the data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.« less

Quantitative Characterization of Spurious Gibbs Waves in 45 CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geil, K. L.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

Gibbs oscillations appear in global climate models when representing fields, such as orography, that contain discontinuities or sharp gradients. It has been known for decades that the oscillations are associated with the transformation of the truncated spectral representation of a field to physical space and that the oscillations can also be present in global models that do not use spectral methods. The spurious oscillations are potentially detrimental to model simulations (e.g., over ocean) and this work provides a quantitative characterization of the Gibbs oscillations that appear across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. An ocean transect running through the South Pacific High toward the Andes is used to characterize the oscillations in ten different variables. These oscillations are found to be stationary and hence are not caused by (physical) waves in the atmosphere. We quantify the oscillation amplitude using the root mean square difference (RMSD) between the transect of a variable and its running mean (rather than the constant mean across the transect). We also compute the RMSD to interannual variability (IAV) ratio, which provides a relative measure of the oscillation amplitude. Of the variables examined, the largest RMSD values exist in the surface pressure field of spectral models, while the smallest RMSD values within the surface pressure field come from models that use finite difference (FD) techniques. Many spectral models have a surface pressure RMSD that is 2 to 15 times greater than IAV over the transect and an RMSD:IAV ratio greater than one for many other variables including surface temperature, incoming shortwave radiation at the surface, incoming longwave radiation at the surface, and total cloud fraction. In general, the FD models out-perform the spectral models, but not all the spectral models have large amplitude oscillations and there are a few FD models where the oscillations do appear. Finally, we present a brief comparison of the numerical methods of a select few models to better understand their Gibbs oscillations.

New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

2013-12-01

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) was designed to determine robust climate system model responses to Solar Radiation Management (SRM). While mitigation (reducing greenhouse gases emissions) is the most effective way of reducing future climate change, SRM (the deliberate modification of incoming solar radiation) has been proposed as a means of temporarily alleviating some of the effects of global warming. For society to make informed decisions as to whether SRM should ever be implemented, information is needed on the benefits, risks, and side effects, and GeoMIP seeks to aid in that endeavor. GeoMIP has organized four standardized climate model simulations involving reduction of insolation or increased amounts of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to counteract increasing greenhouse gases. Thirteen comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation models have participated in the project so far. GeoMIP is a 'CMIP Coordinated Experiment' as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and has been endorsed by SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate). GeoMIP has held three international workshops and has produced a number of recent journal articles. GeoMIP has found that if increasing greenhouse gases could be counteracted with insolation reduction, the global average temperature could be kept constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform. The tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without SRM. If SRM were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5-10 times the rates from gradual global warming. SRM combined with CO2 fertilization would have small impacts on rice production in China, but would increase maize production. SRM using stratospheric aerosols would reduce ozone and enhance surface UV-B radiation, but the details depend on the size distribution of the aerosols, and the complex interaction between upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics, suppression of the NOx cycle, and increases of surface area density. While GeoMIP has improved confidence in the expected climate effects of geoengineering in several key areas, it has also highlighted several important research gaps, such as the effects on terrestrial net primary productivity and the importance of the CO2 physiological effect in determining the hydrologic cycle response to geoengineering. Future efforts will endeavor to address these gaps, as well as encourage cooperation with the chemistry modeling communities, the impact assessment communities (including on agriculture and ecosystems), and other groups interested in model output. We are organizing new GeoMIP experiments that address the suggestion that SRM be implemented by marine cloud brightening, and are proposing that GeoMIP be an integral part of the design of the CMIP6 project.

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.;

Comparing the Ocean Color Measurements Between MOS and SeaWiFS: A Vicarious Intercalibration Approach for MOS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Menghua; Franz, Bryan A.

1998-01-01

One of the primary goals of the NASA Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project is to develop methods for meaningful comparison and possible merging of data products from multiple ocean color missions. The Modular Optoelectronic Scanner (MOS) is a German instrument that was launched in the spring of 1996 on the Indian IRS-P3 satellite. With the successful launch of NASA's Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) in the summer of 1997, there are now two ocean color missions in concurrent operation and there is interest within the scientific community to compare data from these two sensors. In this paper, we describe our efforts to retrieve ocean optical properties from both SeaWiFS and MOS using consistent methods. We first briefly review the atmospheric correction, which removes more than 90% of the observed radiances in the visible, and then describe how the atmospheric correction algorithm used for the SeaWiFS data can be modified for application to other ocean color sensors. Next, since the retrieved water-leaving radiances in the visible between MOS and SeaWiFS are significantly different, we developed a vicarious intercalibration method to recalibrate the MOS spectral bands based on the optical properties of the ocean and atmosphere derived from the coincident SeaWiFS measurements. We present and discuss the MOS retrieved ocean optical properties before and after the vicarious calibration, and demonstrate the efficacy of this approach. We show that it is possible and efficient to vicariously intercalibrate sensors between one and another.

Simulating the IPOD, East Asian summer monsoon, and their relationships in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Miao; Li, Jianping; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Xiaofan; Zheng, Jiayu

2018-03-01

This paper evaluates the simulation performance of the 37 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with respect to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indo-Pacific warm pool and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and also the interrelationships between them. The results show that the majority of the models are unable to accurately simulate the interannual variability and long-term trends of the EASM, and their simulations of the temporal and spatial variations of the IPOD are also limited. Further analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed EASM index (EASMI) is proportional to those between the simulated and observed IPOD index (IPODI); that is, if the models have skills to simulate one of them then they will likely generate good simulations of another. Based on the above relationship, this paper proposes a conditional multi-model ensemble method (CMME) that eliminates those models without capability to simulate the IPOD and EASM when calculating the multi-model ensemble (MME). The analysis shows that, compared with the MME, this CMME method can significantly improve the simulations of the spatial and temporal variations of both the IPOD and EASM as well as their interrelationship, suggesting the potential for the CMME approach to be used in place of the MME method.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

PubMed Central

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. PMID:24344283

MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lardner, Robin; Zodiatis, George

2016-04-01

MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments Robin Lardner and George Zodiatis Oceanography Center, University of Cyprus, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus MEDSLIK is a well established 3D oil spill model that predicts the transport, fate and weathering of oil spills and is used by several response agencies and institutions around the Mediterranean, the Black seas and worldwide. MEDSLIK has been used operationally for real oil spill accidents and for preparedness in contingency planning within the framework of pilot projects with REMPEC-Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea and EMSA-European Maritime Safety Agency. MEDSLIK has been implemented in many EU funded projects regarding oil spill predictions using the operational ocean forecasts, as for example the ECOOP, NEREIDs, RAOP-Med, EMODNET MedSea Check Point. Within the frame of MEDESS4MS project, MEDSLIK is at the heart of the MEDESS4MS multi model oil spill prediction system. The MEDSLIK oil spill model contains among other, the following features: a built-in database with 240 different oil types characteristics, assimilation of oil slick observations from in-situ or aerial, to correct the predictions, virtual deployment of oil booms and/or oil skimmers/dispersants, continuous or instantaneous oil spills from moving or drifting ships whose slicks merge can be modelled together, multiple oil spill predictions from different locations, backward simulations for tracking the source of oil spill pollution, integration with AIS data upon the availability of AIS data, sub-surface oil spills at any given water depth, coupling with SAR satellite data. The MEDSLIK can be used for operational intervention for any user-selected region in the world if the appropriate coastline, bathymetry and meteo-ocean forecast files are provided. MEDSLIK oil spill model has been extensively validated in the Mediterranean Sea, both in real oil spill incidents (i.e. during the Lebanese oil pollution crisis in summer 2006, the biggest oil pollution event in the Eastern Mediterranean so far) and through inter-comparison using drifters. The quality of the MEDSLIK oil spill model predictions depends on the quality of the meteo-ocean forecasting data that will be used. The guidelines set by the MEDESS4MS project to harmonize the meteo-ocean, oil spill and trajectory models input/output formats are implemented in MEDSLIK to suit the operational oil spill predictions. The output results of the trajectory predictions may available in the MEDESS4MS output standards (XML)and in ASCII, while the images in BMP or PNG, TIF,GIF, JPG (image), in KML (Google Earth).

BRDF Characterization and Calibration Inter-Comparison between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and S-NPP VIIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong (Jack); Angal, Amit; Wu, Aisheng

2016-01-01

The inter-comparison of reflective solar bands (RSB) between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and SNPP VIIRS is very important for assessment of each instrument's calibration and to identify calibration improvements. One of the limitations of using their ground observations for the assessment is a lack of the simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) over selected pseudo-invariant targets. In addition, their measurements over a selected Earth view target have significant difference in solar and view angles, and these differences magnify the effects of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). In this work, an inter-comparison technique using a semi-empirical BRDF model is developed for reflectance correction. BRDF characterization requires a broad coverage of solar and view angles in the measurements over selected pseudo-invariant targets. Reflectance measurements over Libya 1, 2, and 4 desert sites from both the Aqua and Terra MODIS are regressed to a BRDF model with an adjustable coefficient accounting for the calibration difference between the two instruments. The BRDF coefficients for three desert sites for MODIS bands 1 to 9 are derived and the wavelength dependencies are presented. The analysis and inter-comparison are for MODIS bands 1 to 9 and VIIRS moderate resolution radiometric bands (M bands) M1, M2, M4, M5, M7, M8, M10 and imaging bands (I bands) I1-I3. Results show that the ratios from different sites are in good agreement. The ratios between Terra and Aqua MODIS from year 2003 to 2014 are presented. The inter-comparison between MODIS and VIIRS are analyzed for year 2014.

The weakening of the ENSO-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coupling strength in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Choi, Jun-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-07-01

This study examines a recent weakening of the coupling between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode after the 2000s and 2010s compared to the previous two decades (1980s and 1990s). The correlation between the IOD during the September-November season and the Nino3.4 index during the December-February season is 0.21 for 1999-2014, while for the previous two decades (1979-1998) it is 0.64. It is found that this weakening of the ENSO-IOD coupling during the 2000s and 2010s is associated with different spatial patterns in ENSO evolution during the boreal spring and summer seasons. During the boreal spring season of the El Nino developing phase, positive precipitation anomalies over the northern off-equatorial western Pacific is systematically weakened during the 2000s and 2010s. This also weakens the low-level cross-equatorial southerly flow, which can cause local negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent through increased evaporation and cold and dry moist energy advection. The weakened negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent reduces the amplitude of the equatorial easterly over the IO, therefore, suppresses a ENSO-related IOD variability. An analysis using climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports this observational findings that the amplitude of the cross-equatorial southerly flow and associated suppressed convective activities over the maritime continent during the El Nino developing season are critical for determining the ENSO-IOD coupling strength in climate models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Intercomparison of Desert Dust Optical Depth from Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carboni, E.; Thomas, G. E.; Sayer, A. M.; Siddans, R.; Poulsen, C. A.; Grainger, R. G.; Ahn, C.; Antoine, D.; Bevan, S.; Braak, R.;

Desert Dust Satellite Retrieval Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carboni, E.; Thomas, G. E.; Sayer, A. M.; Siddans, R.; Poulsen, C. A.; Grainger, R. G.; Ahn, C.; Antoine, D.; Bevan, S.; Braak, R.;

Ozone Response to Aircraft Emissions: Sensitivity Studies with Two-dimensional Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra; Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Bureske, K.; Weubbles, Donald J.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Brasseur, G.; Pyle, J.; Jones, Anna

1992-01-01

Our first intercomparison/assessment of the effects of a proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) fleet on the stratosphere is presented. These model calculations should be considered more as sensitivity studies, primarily designed to serve the following purposes: (1) to allow for intercomparison of model predictions; (2) to focus on the range of fleet operations and engine specifications giving minimal environmental impact; and (3) to provide the basis for future assessment studies. The basic scenarios were chosen to be as realistic as possible, using the information available on anticipated developments in technology. They are not to be interpreted as a commitment or goal for environmental acceptability.

PFLOTRAN-RepoTREND Source Term Comparison Summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frederick, Jennifer M.

Code inter-comparison studies are useful exercises to verify and benchmark independently developed software to ensure proper function, especially when the software is used to model high-consequence systems which cannot be physically tested in a fully representative environment. This summary describes the results of the first portion of the code inter-comparison between PFLOTRAN and RepoTREND, which compares the radionuclide source term used in a typical performance assessment.

Ocean Optics Protocols for Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Validation. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fargion, Giulietta S.; Mueller, James L.

2000-01-01

The document stipulates protocols for measuring bio-optical and radiometric data for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities and algorithm development. This document supersedes the earlier version (Mueller and Austin 1995) published as Volume 25 in the SeaWiFS Technical Report Series. This document marks a significant departure from, and improvement on, theformat and content of Mueller and Austin (1995). The authorship of the protocols has been greatly broadened to include experts specializing in some key areas. New chapters have been added to provide detailed and comprehensive protocols for stability monitoring of radiometers using portable sources, abovewater measurements of remote-sensing reflectance, spectral absorption measurements for discrete water samples, HPLC pigment analysis and fluorometric pigment analysis. Protocols were included in Mueller and Austin (1995) for each of these areas, but the new treatment makes significant advances in each topic area. There are also new chapters prescribing protocols for calibration of sun photometers and sky radiance sensors, sun photometer and sky radiance measurements and analysis, and data archival. These topic areas were barely mentioned in Mueller and Austin (1995).

Sources of Variability in Chlorophyll Analysis by Fluorometry and High-Performance Liquid Chromatography in a SIMBIOS Inter-Calibration Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanHeukelem, Laurie; Thomas, Crystal S.; Gilbert, Patricia M.; Fargion, Giulietta S. (Editor); McClain, Charles R. (Editor)

2002-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project. This particular document focus on the variability in chlorophyll pigment measurements resulting from differences in methodologies and laboratories conducting the pigment analysis.

MODIS Validation, Data Merger and Other Activities Accomplished by the SIMBIOS Project: 2002-2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, satellite data processing, and data product validation. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report focuses on the SIMBIOS Project s efforts in support of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra platform (similar evaluations of MODIS/Aqua are underway). This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project.

Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerley, Duncan; Reeves, Jessica; Barr, Cameron; Bostock, Helen; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gouramanis, Chris; McGregor, Helen; Mooney, Scott; Phipps, Steven J.; Tibby, John; Tyler, Jonathan

2017-11-01

This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records - OZ-INTIMATE) to compare atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation) of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE) initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka) and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka) experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection) may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy), opportunities for better model-proxy integrated research are discussed.

Revisiting the PLUMBER Experiments from a Process-Diagnostics Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.; Ruddell, B. L.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

The PLUMBER benchmarking experiments [1] showed that some of the most sophisticated land models (CABLE, CH-TESSEL, COLA-SSiB, ISBA-SURFEX, JULES, Mosaic, Noah, ORCHIDEE) were outperformed - in simulations of half-hourly surface energy fluxes - by instantaneous, out-of-sample, and globally-stationary regressions with no state memory. One criticism of PLUMBER is that the benchmarking methodology was not derived formally, so that applying a similar methodology with different performance metrics can result in qualitatively different results. Another common criticism of model intercomparison projects in general is that they offer little insight into process-level deficiencies in the models, and therefore are of marginal value for helping to improve the models. We address both of these issues by proposing a formal benchmarking methodology that also yields a formal and quantitative method for process-level diagnostics. We apply this to the PLUMBER experiments to show that (1) the PLUMBER conclusions were generally correct - the models use only a fraction of the information available to them from met forcing data (<50% by our analysis), and (2) all of the land models investigated by PLUMBER have similar process-level error structures, and therefore together do not represent a meaningful sample of structural or epistemic uncertainty. We conclude by suggesting two ways to improve the experimental design of model intercomparison and/or model benchmarking studies like PLUMBER. First, PLUMBER did not report model parameter values, and it is necessary to know these values to separate parameter uncertainty from structural uncertainty. This is a first order requirement if we want to use intercomparison studies to provide feedback to model development. Second, technical documentation of land models is inadequate. Future model intercomparison projects should begin with a collaborative effort by model developers to document specific differences between model structures. This could be done in a reproducible way using a unified, process-flexible system like SUMMA [2]. [1] Best, M.J. et al. (2015) 'The plumbing of land surface models: benchmarking model performance', J. Hydrometeor. [2] Clark, M.P. et al. (2015) 'A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept', Water Resour. Res.

Two-Dimensional Intercomparison of Stratospheric Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Seals, Robert K., Jr. (Editor); Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

1989-01-01

A detailed record is provided for the examination of fundamental differences in photochemistry and transport among atmospheric models. The results of 16 different modeling groups are presented for several model experiments.

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Dimethylsulfide model calibration and parametric sensitivity analysis for the Greenland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Bo; Gabric, Albert J.; Zeng, Meifang; Xi, Jiaojiao; Jiang, Limei; Zhao, Li

2017-09-01

Sea-to-air fluxes of marine biogenic aerosols have the potential to modify cloud microphysics and regional radiative budgets, and thus moderate Earth's warming. Polar regions play a critical role in the evolution of global climate. In this work, we use a well-established biogeochemical model to simulate the DMS flux from the Greenland Sea (20°W-10°E and 70°N-80°N) for the period 2003-2004. Parameter sensitivity analysis is employed to identify the most sensitive parameters in the model. A genetic algorithm (GA) technique is used for DMS model parameter calibration. Data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive the DMS model under 4 × CO2 conditions. DMS flux under quadrupled CO2 levels increases more than 300% compared with late 20th century levels (1 × CO2). Reasons for the increase in DMS flux include changes in the ocean state-namely an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and loss of sea ice-and an increase in DMS transfer velocity, especially in spring and summer. Such a large increase in DMS flux could slow the rate of warming in the Arctic via radiative budget changes associated with DMS-derived aerosols.

Lopez Island Ocean Bottom Seismometer Intercomparison Experiment.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

dividing the, record into N 4-see-long records (where N-30) and averaging4 - ].- ~ I I I I I I r r I I I I I I I I SEC - II L L I I L I I I I I I 80 1...about 1 m (Sutton et al., 1980). The OBS’s were located within tens of meters ot eacti other in deep waiter . The hydrophones are well correlated, showing...1 - 21)2 ) (5) where D is a damping constant which is the actual damping constant divided by the critical damping constant C I/cc. Lvsmer’s analog

Scandinavia studies of recent crustal movements and the space geodetic baseline network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, A. J.

1980-01-01

A brief review of crustal movements within the Fenno-Scandia shield is given. Results from postglacial studies, projects for measuring active fault regions, and dynamic ocean loading experiments are presented. The 1979 Scandinavian Doppler Campaign Network is discussed. This network includes Doppler translocation baseline determination of future very long baseline interferometry baselines to be measured in Scandinavia. Intercomparison of earlier Doppler translocation measurements with a high precision terrestrial geodetic baseline in Scandinavia has yielded internal agreement of 6 cm over 887 km. This is a precision of better than 1 part in to the 7th power.

A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS): linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossaini, R.; Patra, P. K.; Leeson, A. A.; Krysztofiak, G.; Abraham, N. L.; Andrews, S. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Aschmann, J.; Atlas, E. L.; Belikov, D. A.; Bönisch, H.; Carpenter, L. J.; Dhomse, S.; Dorf, M.; Engel, A.; Feng, W.; Fuhlbrügge, S.; Griffiths, P. T.; Harris, N. R. P.; Hommel, R.; Keber, T.; Krüger, K.; Lennartz, S. T.; Maksyutov, S.; Mantle, H.; Mills, G. P.; Miller, B.; Montzka, S. A.; Moore, F.; Navarro, M. A.; Oram, D. E.; Pfeilsticker, K.; Pyle, J. A.; Quack, B.; Robinson, A. D.; Saikawa, E.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Sala, S.; Sinnhuber, B.-M.; Taguchi, S.; Tegtmeier, S.; Lidster, R. T.; Wilson, C.; Ziska, F.

2016-07-01

The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry-climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993-2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements - including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model-measurement correlation (r ≥ 0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model-measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2-2.5) ppt, ˜ 57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

2016-09-23

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

A generalised approach to reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M.; van Hinsbergen, D. J. J.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Sluijs, A.; Abels, H. A.; Bijl, P. K.

2015-10-01

Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art of plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate global geographical reconstructions that are suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicates that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping the reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can be easily incorporated in different model simulations. An example is presented, covering a late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), a MatLab script used to perform the procedure is provided in the Supplement.

The Proposal for the NASA Sensor Intercalibration and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies(SIMBIOS) Program, 1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles; Esaias, Wayne; Feldman, Gene; Gregg, Watson; Hooker, Stanford; Frouin, Robert

2002-01-01

As a result of the Earth Observing System (EOS) restructuring exercise during the last half of fiscal year 1994, the EOS Color mission, which was scheduled to be a data-buy with a 1998 launch was dropped from the EOS mission manifest primarily because of the number of international ocean color missions scheduled for launch in the 1998 time frame. In lieu of a new mission, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was tasked by NASA Headquarters to develop an ocean color satellite calibration and validation plan for multiple sensors. The objective of the activity was to develop a methodology and operational capability to combine data products from the various ocean color missions in a manner that ensures the best possible global coverage and data quality. The program was called the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project coined from the biological term "symbiosis." This document is the original proposal that was developed and submitted in May 1995. SIMBIOS was approved in 1996 and initiated in 1997 with a project office and technical staff at GSFC and a science team to assist in the development of validation data sets, sensor calibration, atmospheric correction, and bio-optical and data merger algorithms. Since its inception, the SIMBIOS program has resulted in a broad-based international collaboration on the calibration and validation of a number of ocean color satellites.

Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

Recent and possible future variations in the North American Monsoon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Barlow, Mathew; Shukla, Shraddhanand

2016-01-01

The dynamics and recent and possible future changes of the June–September rainfall associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) are reviewed in this chapter. Our analysis as well as previous analyses of the trend in June–September precipitation from 1948 until 2010 indicate significant precipitation increases over New Mexico and the core NAM region, and significant precipitation decreases over southwest Mexico. The trends in June–September precipitation have been forced by anomalous cyclonic circulation centered at 15°N latitude over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The anomalous cyclonic circulation is responsible for changes in the flux of moisture and the divergence of moisture flux within the core NAM region. Future climate projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), support the observed analyses of a later shift in the monsoon season in the presence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario predict significant NAM-related rainfall decreases during June and July and predict significant NAM-related rainfall increases during September and October.

Effects of El Niño on summertime ozone air quality in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

We investigate the effect of El Nino on maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) surface ozone over the eastern United States in summer (June-August, JJA) from 1980 to 2016. El Nino can influence the extra-tropical climate through the propagation of stationary waves, leading to (1) a low-pressure anomaly in the western Atlantic, which reduces transport of moist, clean air from the ocean into the mid- and southern Atlantic states, and (2) intensified southerly flow in the South Central states, which conversely enhances flux of moist, clean air into this region. El Nino can also trigger greater subsidence, reduced precipitation, and increased surface solar radiation in the mid- and southern Atlantic States. As a result, every standard deviation increase in the Nino 1+2 index is associated with an increase of 1-2 ppbv ozone in the Atlantic States and a decrease of 0.5-2 ppbv ozone in the South Central states. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project have difficulties capturing the El Nino influence on summertime weather in the eastern United States, implying that the freely running chemistry-climate models also cannot simulate the ozone variability related to El Nino.

Future Directions in Simulating Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Boucher, Olivier

2014-08-05

Solar geoengineering is a proposed set of technologies to temporarily alleviate some of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) created a framework of geoengineering simulations in climate models that have been performed by modeling centers throughout the world (B. Kravitz et al., The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Atmospheric Science Letters, 12(2), 162-167, doi:10.1002/asl.316, 2011). These experiments use state-of-the-art climate models to simulate solar geoengineering via uniform solar reduction, creation of stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers, or injecting sea spray into the marine boundary layer. GeoMIP has been quite successful in its mission ofmore » revealing robust features and key uncertainties of the modeled effects of solar geoengineering.« less

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Miller, W. P.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin's wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River. This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.

Seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model: The importance of the equatorial cold sea surface temperature bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

2018-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by a seasonal phase locking, with strongest eastern and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter and weakest SST anomalies during boreal spring. In this study, key feedbacks controlling seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are identified by employing Bjerknes index stability analysis. A large ensemble of simulations with the KCM is analyzed, where the individual runs differ in either the number of vertical atmospheric levels or coefficients used in selected atmospheric parameterizations. All integrations use the identical ocean model. The ensemble-mean features realistic seasonal ENSO phase locking. ENSO phase locking is very sensitive to changes in the mean-state realized by the modifications described above. An excessive equatorial cold tongue leads to weak phase locking by reducing the Ekman feedback and thermocline feedback in late boreal fall and early boreal winter. Seasonal ENSO phase locking also is sensitive to the shortwave feedback as part of the thermal damping in early boreal spring, which strongly depends on eastern and central equatorial Pacific SST. The results obtained from the KCM are consistent with those from models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

Spectral cumulus parameterization based on cloud-resolving model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, Yuya

2018-02-01

We have developed a spectral cumulus parameterization using a cloud-resolving model. This includes a new parameterization of the entrainment rate which was derived from analysis of the cloud properties obtained from the cloud-resolving model simulation and was valid for both shallow and deep convection. The new scheme was examined in a single-column model experiment and compared with the existing parameterization of Gregory (2001, Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:53-72) (GR scheme). The results showed that the GR scheme simulated more shallow and diluted convection than the new scheme. To further validate the physical performance of the parameterizations, Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments were performed, and the results were compared with reanalysis data. The new scheme performed better than the GR scheme in terms of mean state and variability of atmospheric circulation, i.e., the new scheme improved positive bias of precipitation in western Pacific region, and improved positive bias of outgoing shortwave radiation over the ocean. The new scheme also simulated better features of convectively coupled equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation. These improvements were found to be derived from the modification of parameterization for the entrainment rate, i.e., the proposed parameterization suppressed excessive increase of entrainment, thus suppressing excessive increase of low-level clouds.

Water vapour intercomparison effort in the frame of HyMeX-SOP1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summa, Donato; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Stelitano, Dario; Cacciani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Chazette, Patrick; Ducrocq, Véronique; Nuret, Mathieu; Fourié, Nadia; Richard, Evelyne

2014-05-01

A water vapour intercomparison effort, involving airborne and ground-based water vapour lidar systems and mesoscale models, was carried out in the framework of the international HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) dedicated to the hydrological cycle and related high-impact events. Within HyMeX, a major field campaign was dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flood events from 5 September to 6 November 2012. The 2 month field campaign took place over the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea and its surrounding coastal regions in France, Italy, and Spain. The main objective of this work is to provide accurate error estimates for the lidar systems i.e. the ground-based Raman lidar BASIL and the CNRS DIAL Leandre 2 on board the ATR42, as well as use BASIL data to validate mesoscale model results from the MESO NH and Arome WMED. The effort will benefit from the few dedicated ATR42 flights in the frame of the EUFAR Project "WaLiTemp". In the present work our attention was focused on two specific case studies: 13 September and 2 October in the altitude region 0.5 - 5.5 km. Comparisons between the ground-based Raman lidar BASIL and the airborne CNRS DIAL indicate a mean relative bias between the two sensors of 6.5%, while comparisons between BASIL and CNRS DIAL vs. the radiosondes indicate a bias of 2.6 and -3.5 %, respectively. The bias of BASIL vs. the ATR insitu sensor indicate a bias of -20.4 %. Specific attention will also be dedicated to the WALI/BASIL intercomparison effort which took place in Candillargues on 30 October 2012. Specific results from this intercomparison effort and from the intercomparison between BASIL and Meso-NH/AROME-WMed will be illustrated and discussed at the Conference.

Methods and Best Practice to Intercompare Dissolved Oxygen Sensors and Fluorometers/Turbidimeters for Oceanographic Applications.

PubMed

Pensieri, Sara; Bozzano, Roberto; Schiano, M Elisabetta; Ntoumas, Manolis; Potiris, Emmanouil; Frangoulis, Constantin; Podaras, Dimitrios; Petihakis, George

2016-05-17

In European seas, ocean monitoring strategies in terms of key parameters, space and time scale vary widely for a range of technical and economic reasons. Nonetheless, the growing interest in the ocean interior promotes the investigation of processes such as oxygen consumption, primary productivity and ocean acidity requiring that close attention is paid to the instruments in terms of measurement setup, configuration, calibration, maintenance procedures and quality assessment. To this aim, two separate hardware and software tools were developed in order to test and simultaneously intercompare several oxygen probes and fluorometers/turbidimeters, respectively in the same environmental conditions, with a configuration as close as possible to real in-situ deployment. The chamber designed to perform chlorophyll-a and turbidity tests allowed for the simultaneous acquisition of analogue and digital signals of several sensors at the same time, so it was sufficiently compact to be used in both laboratory and onboard vessels. Methodologies and best practice committed to the intercomparison of dissolved oxygen sensors and fluorometers/turbidimeters have been used, which aid in the promotion of interoperability to access key infrastructures, such as ocean observatories and calibration facilities. Results from laboratory tests as well as field tests in the Mediterranean Sea are presented.

Methods and Best Practice to Intercompare Dissolved Oxygen Sensors and Fluorometers/Turbidimeters for Oceanographic Applications

PubMed Central

Pensieri, Sara; Bozzano, Roberto; Schiano, M. Elisabetta; Ntoumas, Manolis; Potiris, Emmanouil; Frangoulis, Constantin; Podaras, Dimitrios; Petihakis, George

2016-01-01

In European seas, ocean monitoring strategies in terms of key parameters, space and time scale vary widely for a range of technical and economic reasons. Nonetheless, the growing interest in the ocean interior promotes the investigation of processes such as oxygen consumption, primary productivity and ocean acidity requiring that close attention is paid to the instruments in terms of measurement setup, configuration, calibration, maintenance procedures and quality assessment. To this aim, two separate hardware and software tools were developed in order to test and simultaneously intercompare several oxygen probes and fluorometers/turbidimeters, respectively in the same environmental conditions, with a configuration as close as possible to real in-situ deployment. The chamber designed to perform chlorophyll-a and turbidity tests allowed for the simultaneous acquisition of analogue and digital signals of several sensors at the same time, so it was sufficiently compact to be used in both laboratory and onboard vessels. Methodologies and best practice committed to the intercomparison of dissolved oxygen sensors and fluorometers/turbidimeters have been used, which aid in the promotion of interoperability to access key infrastructures, such as ocean observatories and calibration facilities. Results from laboratory tests as well as field tests in the Mediterranean Sea are presented. PMID:27196908

IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research: Support of Ocean Carbon Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimetz-Planchon, J.; Gattuso, J.; Maddison, L.; Bakker, D. C.; Gruber, N.

2011-12-01

IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research), co-sponsored by SCOR (Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research) and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme), coordinates research that focuses on understanding and predicting changes in oceanic food webs and biogeochemical cycles that arise from global change. An integral part of this overall goal is to understand the marine carbon cycle, with emphasis on changes that may occur as a result of a changing climate, increased atmospheric CO2 levels and/or reduced oceanic pH. To address these key ocean carbon issues, IMBER and SOLAS (Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study), formed the joint SOLAS-IMBER Carbon, or SIC Working Group. The SIC Working Group activities are organised into three sub-groups. Sub-group 1 (Surface Ocean Systems) focuses on synthesis, instrumentation and technology development, VOS (Voluntary Observing Ships) and mixed layer sampling strategies. The group contributed to the development of SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas, www.socat.info), a global compilation of underway surface water fCO2 (fugacity of CO2) data in common format. It includes 6.3 million measurements from 1767 cruises from 1968 and 2008 by more than 10 countries. SOCAT will be publically available and will serve a wide range of user communities. Its public release is planned for September 2011. SOCAT is strongly supported by IOCCP and CARBOOCEAN. Sub-group 2 (Interior Ocean Carbon Storage) covers inventory and observations, natural variability, transformation and interaction with modelling. It coordinated a review of vulnerabilities of the decadal variations of the interior ocean carbon and oxygen cycle. It has also developed a plan to add dissolved oxygen sensors to the ARGO float program in order to address the expected loss of oxygen as a result of ocean warming. The group also focuses on the global synthesis of ocean interior carbon observations to determine the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 since the mid 1990s. Sub-group 3 (SOLAS-IMBER Ocean Acidification or SIOA) coordinates international research efforts in ocean acidification and undertakes synthesis activities in ocean acidification at the international level. Several on-going synthesis activities, such as book projects and work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are endorsed by this group. The SIOA developed a package of activities which it identified as critical to assess the effects of ocean acidification but are, for the most part, not funded at the national or regional levels and must be carried out at the international level. Among them is the promotion of international experiments, the sharing of experimental platforms, and the undertaking of inter-comparison exercises. The SIOA has submitted a proposal to launch an Ocean Acidification International Coordination Office in March 2011. This poster highlights some results from the SIC Working Group and indicates future challenges.

Evaluation of the Sensor Data Record from the Nadir Instruments of the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Xiangqian; Liu, Quanhua; Zeng, Jian; Grotenhuis, Michael; Qian, Haifeng; Caponi, Maria; Flynn, Larry; Jaross, Glen; Sen, Bhaswar; Buss, Richard H., Jr.;

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

2018-01-01

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2017-12-01

TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To reach this goal, a community-defined set of model output has been recommended that will allow scientists to better characterize the heat, momentum and mass budget of Arctic sea ice. This will allow for better quantification of the role of internal variability, external forcing and model deficiencies.

SECOND LATIN AMERICAN INTERCOMPARISON ON INTERNAL DOSE ASSESSMENT.

PubMed

Rojo, A; Puerta, N; Gossio, S; Gómez Parada, I; Cruz Suarez, R; López, E; Medina, C; Lastra Boylan, J; Pinheiro Ramos, M; Mora Ramírez, E; Alves Dos Reis, A; Yánez, H; Rubio, J; Vironneau Janicek, L; Somarriba Vanegas, F; Puerta Ortiz, J; Salas Ramírez, M; López Bejerano, G; da Silva, T; Miri Oliveira, C; Terán, M; Alfaro, M; García, T; Angeles, A; Duré Romero, E; Farias de Lima, F

2016-09-01

Internal dosimetry intercomparisons are essential for the verification of applied models and the consistency of results'. To that aim, the First Regional Intercomparison was organised in 2005, and that results led to the Second Regional Intercomparison Exercise in 2013, which was organised in the frame of the RLA 9/066 and coordinated by Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear of Argentina. Four simulated cases covering intakes of (131)I, (137)Cs and Tritium were proposed. Ninteen centres from thirteen different countries participated in this exercise. This paper analyses the participants' results in this second exercise in order to test their skills and acquired knowledge, particularly in the application of the IDEAS Guidelines. It is important to highlight the increased number of countries that participated in this exercise compared with the first one and, furthermore, the improvement in the overall performance. The impact of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Projects since 2003 has led to a significant enhancement of internal dosimetry capabilities that strengthen the radiation protection of workers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Intercomparison of cloud model simulations of Arctic mixed-phase boundary layer clouds observed during SHEBA/FIRE-ACE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, H.; Zuidema, Paquita; Ackerman, Andrew

2011-06-16

An intercomparison of six cloud-resolving and large-eddy simulation models is presented. This case study is based on observations of a persistent mixed-phase boundary layer cloud gathered on 7 May, 1998 from the Surface Heat Budget of Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE-ACE). Ice nucleation is constrained in the simulations in a way that holds the ice crystal concentration approximately fixed, with two sets of sensitivity runs in addition to the baseline simulations utilizing different specified ice nucleus (IN) concentrations. All of the baseline and sensitivity simulations group into two distinct quasi-steady states associatedmore » with either persistent mixed-phase clouds or all-ice clouds after the first few hours of integration, implying the existence of multiple equilibria. These two states are associated with distinctly different microphysical, thermodynamic, and radiative characteristics. Most but not all of the models produce a persistent mixed-phase cloud qualitatively similar to observations using the baseline IN/crystal concentration, while small increases in the IN/crystal concentration generally lead to rapid glaciation and conversion to the all-ice state. Budget analysis indicates that larger ice deposition rates associated with increased IN/crystal concentrations have a limited direct impact on dissipation of liquid in these simulations. However, the impact of increased ice deposition is greatly enhanced by several interaction pathways that lead to an increased surface precipitation flux, weaker cloud top radiative cooling and cloud dynamics, and reduced vertical mixing, promoting rapid glaciation of the mixed-phase cloud for deposition rates in the cloud layer greater than about 1-2x10-5 g kg-1 s-1. These results indicate the critical importance of precipitation-radiative-dynamical interactions in simulating cloud phase, which have been neglected in previous fixed-dynamical parcel studies of the cloud phase parameter space. Large sensitivity to the IN/crystal concentration also suggests the need for improved understanding of ice nucleation and its parameterization in models.« less

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea; Kunze, Markus; Kirner, Oliver; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Brinkop, Sabine; Cai, Duy S.; Dyroff, Christoph; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Franziska; Garny, Hella; Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Kerkweg, Astrid; Kern, Bastian; Matthes, Sigrun; Mertens, Mariano; Meul, Stefanie; Neumaier, Marco; Nützel, Matthias; Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie; Ruhnke, Roland; Runde, Theresa; Sander, Rolf; Scharffe, Dieter; Zahn, Andreas

2016-03-01

Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950-2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979-2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950-2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2014-01-01

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The "warm land-cool ocean" favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.

Do state-of-the-art CMIP5 ESMs accurately represent observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks? Focus on the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

The semi-arid Sahel ecoregion is an established hotspot of land-atmosphere coupling. Ocean-land-atmosphere interactions received considerable attention by modeling studies in response to the devastating 1970s-90s Sahel drought, which models suggest was driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and amplified by local vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Vegetation affects the atmosphere through biophysical feedbacks by altering the albedo, roughness, and transpiration and thereby modifying exchanges of energy, momentum, and moisture with the atmosphere. The current understanding of these potentially competing processes is primarily based on modeling studies, with biophysical feedbacks serving as a key uncertainty source in regional climate change projections among Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to reduce this uncertainty, it is critical to rigorously evaluate the representation of vegetation feedbacks in ESMs against an observational benchmark in order to diagnose systematic biases and their sources. However, it is challenging to successfully isolate vegetation's feedbacks on the atmosphere, since the atmospheric control on vegetation growth dominates the atmospheric feedback response to vegetation anomalies and the atmosphere is simultaneously influenced by oceanic and terrestrial anomalies. In response to this challenge, a model-validated multivariate statistical method, Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (SGEFA), is developed, which extracts the forcing of a slowly-evolving environmental variable [e.g. SST or leaf area index (LAI)] on the rapidly-evolving atmosphere. By applying SGEFA to observational and remotely-sensed data, an observational benchmark is established for Sahel vegetation feedbacks. In this work, the simulated responses in key atmospheric variables, including evapotranspiration, albedo, wind speed, vertical motion, temperature, stability, and rainfall, to Sahel LAI anomalies are statistically assessed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs through SGEFA. The dominant mechanism, such as albedo feedback, moisture recycling, or momentum feedback, in each ESM is evaluated against the observed benchmark. SGEFA facilitates a systematic assessment of model biases in land-atmosphere interactions.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Foster, I.; Benton, T.; Mueller, C.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather and may harm more people than any other consequence of climate change. Improvements in farming practices have dramatically increased crop productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation. We report here on a number of recent studies evaluating extreme event risk and impacts under historical and near future conditions, including studies conducted as part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.

The T-REX valley wind intercomparison project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidli, J; Billings, B J; Burton, R

2008-08-07

An accurate simulation of the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is very important, as the evolution of the boundary layer sets the stage for many weather phenomena, such as deep convection. Over mountain areas the evolution of the boundary layer is particularly complex, due to the nonlinear interaction between boundary layer turbulence and thermally-induced mesoscale wind systems, such as the slope and valley winds. As the horizontal resolution of operational forecasts progresses to finer and finer resolution, more and more of the thermally-induced mesoscale wind systems can be explicitly resolved, and it is very timely to document the currentmore » state-of-the-art of mesoscale models at simulating the coupled evolution of the mountain boundary layer and the valley wind system. In this paper we present an intercomparison of valley wind simulations for an idealized valley-plain configuration using eight state-of-the-art mesoscale models with a grid spacing of 1 km. Different sets of three-dimensional simulations are used to explore the effects of varying model dynamical cores and physical parameterizations. This intercomparison project was conducted as part of the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX; Grubisic et al., 2008).« less

A comparison of hydrographically and optically derived mixed layer depths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zawada, D.G.; Zaneveld, J.R.V.; Boss, E.; Gardner, W.D.; Richardson, M.J.; Mishonov, A.V.

2005-01-01

Efforts to understand and model the dynamics of the upper ocean would be significantly advanced given the ability to rapidly determine mixed layer depths (MLDs) over large regions. Remote sensing technologies are an ideal choice for achieving this goal. This study addresses the feasibility of estimating MLDs from optical properties. These properties are strongly influenced by suspended particle concentrations, which generally reach a maximum at pycnoclines. The premise therefore is to use a gradient in beam attenuation at 660 nm (c660) as a proxy for the depth of a particle-scattering layer. Using a global data set collected during World Ocean Circulation Experiment cruises from 1988-1997, six algorithms were employed to compute MLDs from either density or temperature profiles. Given the absence of published optically based MLD algorithms, two new methods were developed that use c660 profiles to estimate the MLD. Intercomparison of the six hydrographically based algorithms revealed some significant disparities among the resulting MLD values. Comparisons between the hydrographical and optical approaches indicated a first-order agreement between the MLDs based on the depths of gradient maxima for density and c660. When comparing various hydrographically based algorithms, other investigators reported that inherent fluctuations of the mixed layer depth limit the accuracy of its determination to 20 m. Using this benchmark, we found a ???70% agreement between the best hydrographical-optical algorithm pairings. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

The Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Processors for MERIS Based on In-Situ Measurements-Updates in OC-CCI Round Robin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Dagmar; Krasemann, Hajo; Zuhilke, Marco; Doerffer, Roland; Brockmann, Carsten; Steinmetz, Francois; Valente, Andre; Brotas, Vanda; Grant, kMicheal G.; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Melin, Frederic; Franz, Bryan A.; Mazeran, Constant; Regner, Peter

2016-08-01

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC- CCI) provides a long-term time series of ocean colour data and investigates the detectable climate impact. A reliable and stable atmospheric correction (AC) procedure is the basis for ocean colour products of the necessary high quality.The selection of atmospheric correction processors is repeated regularly based on a round robin exercise, at the latest when a revised production and release of the OC-CCI merged product is scheduled. Most of the AC processors are under constant development and changes are implemented to improve the quality of satellite-derived retrievals of remote sensing reflectances. The changes between versions of the inter-comparison are not restricted to the implementation of AC processors. There are activities to improve the quality flagging for some processors, and the system vicarious calibration for AC algorithms in their sensor specific behaviour are widely studied. Each inter-comparison starts with an updated in-situ database, as more spectra are included in order to broaden the temporal and spatial range of satellite match-ups. While the OC-CCI's focus has laid on case-1 waters in the past, it has expanded to the retrieval of case-2 products now. In light of this goal, new bidirectional correction procedures (normalisation) for the remote sensing spectra have been introduced. As in-situ measurements are not always available at the satellite sensor specific central wave- lengths, a band-shift algorithm has to be applied to the dataset.In order to guarantee an objective selection from a set of four atmospheric correction processors, the common validation strategy of comparisons between in-situ and satellite-derived water leaving reflectance spectra, is aided by a ranking system. In principal, the statistical parameters are transformed into relative scores, which evaluate the relationship of quality dependent on the algorithms under study. The sensitivity of these scores to the selected database has been assessed by a bootstrapping exercise, which allows identification of the uncertainty in the scoring results.A comparison of round robin results for the OC-CCI version 2 and the current version 3 is presented and some major changes are highlighted.

Indoor and Outdoor Spectroradiometer Intercomparison for Spectral Irradiance Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Ottoson, L.

2014-05-01

This report details the global spectral irradiance intercomparison using spectroradiometers that was organized by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory. The intercomparison was performed both indoors and outdoors on September 17, 2013. Five laboratories participated in the intercomparison using 10 spectroradiometers, and a coordinated measurement setup and a common platform were employed to compare spectral irradiances under both indoor and outdoor conditions. The intercomparison aimed to understand the performance of the different spectroradiometers and to share knowledge in making spectral irradiance measurements. This intercomparison was the first of its kind in the United States.

SOIL moisture data intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Yann; Rodriguez-Frenandez, Nemesio; Al-Yaari, Amen; Parens, Marie; Molero, Beatriz; Mahmoodi, Ali; Mialon, Arnaud; Richaume, Philippe; Bindlish, Rajat; Mecklenburg, Susanne; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

2016-04-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) was launched in November 2009 and started delivering data in January 2010. Subsequently, the satellite has been in operation for over 6 years while the retrieval algorithms from Level 1 to Level 2 underwent significant evolutions as knowledge improved. Other approaches for retrieval at Level 2 over land were also investigated while Level 3 and 4 were initiated. In this présentation these improvements are assessed by inter-comparisons of the current Level 2 (V620) against the previous version (V551) and new products either using neural networks or Level 3. In addition a global evaluation of different SMOS soil moisture (SM) products is performed comparing products with those of model simulations and other satellites (AMSR E/ AMSR2 and ASCAT). Finally, all products were evaluated against in situ measurements of soil moisture (SM). The study demonstrated that the V620 shows a significant improvement (including those at level1 improving level2)) with respect to the earlier version V551. Results also show that neural network based approaches can yield excellent results over areas where other products are poor. Finally, global comparison indicates that SMOS behaves very well when compared to other sensors/approaches and gives consistent results over all surfaces from very dry (African Sahel, Arizona), to wet (tropical rain forests). RFI (Radio Frequency Interference) is still an issue even though detection has been greatly improved while RFI sources in several areas of the world are significantly reduced. When compared to other satellite products, the analysis shows that SMOS achieves its expected goals and is globally consistent over different eco climate regions from low to high latitudes and throughout the seasons.

The Impact of Abrupt Suspension of Solar Radiation Management (Termination Effect) in Experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew; Haywood, J.; Alterskjaer, Kari

2013-09-11

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentra- tions as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid rate of global-mean warming following termination, accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and in plant net primary productivity, and decreases in sea-ice cover. While there is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of warming, there is much less of an agreement regarding the patterns of changemore » in the other quantities.« less

Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

DOE PAGES

Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; ...

2015-05-21

Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced amore » clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.« less

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Stevens, B. B.; Forster, P.; Collins, W.; Ramaswamy, V.

2014-12-01

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities: 1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models 2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models 3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model 4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Metrics of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation in the MiKlip Decadal Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Kunst, Oliver; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Cubasch, Ulrich

2014-05-01

Decadal forecasting of climate variability is a growing need for different parts of society, industry and economy. The German initiative MiKlip (www.fona-miklip.de) focuses on the ongoing processes of medium-term climate prediction. The scientific major project funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) develops a forecast system, that aims for reliable predictions on decadal timescales. Using a single earth system model from the Max-Planck institute (MPI-ESM) and moving from the uninitialized runs on to the first initialized 'Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5' (CMIP5) hindcast experiments identified possibilities and open scientific tasks. The MiKlip decadal prediction system was improved on different aspects through new initialization techniques and datasets of the ocean and atmosphere. To accompany and emphasize such an improvement of a forecast system, a standardized evaluation system designed by the MiKlip sub-project 'Integrated data and evaluation system for decadal scale prediction' (INTEGRATION) analyzes every step of its evolution. This study aims at combining deterministic and probabilistic skill scores of this prediction system from its unitialized state to anomaly and then full-field oceanic initialization. The improved forecast skill in these different decadal hindcast experiments of surface air temperature and precipitation in the Pacific region and the complex area of the North Atlantic illustrate potential sources of skill. A standardized evaluation leads prediction systems depending on development to find its way to produce reliable forecasts. Different aspects of these research dependencies, e.g. ensemble size, resolution, initializations, etc. will be discussed.

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.

2015-02-01

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

2017-04-01

The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

2014-05-01

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suzuki, Yujiro; Costa, Antonio; Cerminara, Matteo; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, Leif

2016-01-01

We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 106 kg s− 1), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is ~ 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by ~ 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 109 kg s− 1) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion (~ 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is ~ 20%, whereas that of maximum height is ~ 10%. This inter-comparison study has highlighted the different capabilities of 3D volcanic plume models, and identified key features of weak and strong plumes, including the roles of jet stability, entrainment efficiency, and particle non-equilibrium, which deserve future investigation in field, laboratory, and numerical studies.

DCMIP2016: a review of non-hydrostatic dynamical core design and intercomparison of participating models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullrich, Paul A.; Jablonowski, Christiane; Kent, James; Lauritzen, Peter H.; Nair, Ramachandran; Reed, Kevin A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Hall, David M.; Dazlich, Don; Heikes, Ross; Konor, Celal; Randall, David; Dubos, Thomas; Meurdesoif, Yann; Chen, Xi; Harris, Lucas; Kühnlein, Christian; Lee, Vivian; Qaddouri, Abdessamad; Girard, Claude; Giorgetta, Marco; Reinert, Daniel; Klemp, Joseph; Park, Sang-Hun; Skamarock, William; Miura, Hiroaki; Ohno, Tomoki; Yoshida, Ryuji; Walko, Robert; Reinecke, Alex; Viner, Kevin

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamical cores are a fundamental component of global atmospheric modeling systems and are responsible for capturing the dynamical behavior of the Earth's atmosphere via numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. These systems have existed in one form or another for over half of a century, with the earliest discretizations having now evolved into a complex ecosystem of algorithms and computational strategies. In essence, no two dynamical cores are alike, and their individual successes suggest that no perfect model exists. To better understand modern dynamical cores, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of 11 non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, drawn from modeling centers and groups that participated in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) workshop and summer school. This review includes a choice of model grid, variable placement, vertical coordinate, prognostic equations, temporal discretization, and the diffusion, stabilization, filters, and fixers employed by each system.

Assessment and intercomparison of numerical simulations in the Western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

2014-05-01

The Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB, www.socib.es) is developing high resolution numerical simulations (hindcasts and forecasts) in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) with a high spatial resolution of 1/50º (1.5-2km). Thus, theses simulations are able to reproduce mesoscale and in some cases sub-mesoscale features that are key in the Mediterranean Sea since they interact and modify the basin and sub-basin circulation. These simulations are initialized from and nested in either the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS, 1/16º) or Mercator-Océan simulations (MERCATOR, 1/12º). A repeated glider section in the Ibiza Channel, operated by SOCIB, has revealed significant differences between two WMOP simulations using either MFS or MERCATOR (hereafter WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC). In this study, MFS, MERCATOR, WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC are compared and evaluated using available multi-platform observations such as satellite products (Sea Level Anomaly, Sea Surface Temperature) and in situ measurements (temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats, CTD, XBT, fixed moorings and gliders; velocity fields from HF radar and currentmeters). A quantitative comparison is necessary to evaluate the capacity of the simulations to reproduce observed ocean features, and to quantify the possible simulations biases. This will in turn allow to improve the simulations, so as to produce better ocean forecast systems, to study and better understand ocean processes and to address climate studies. Therefore, various statistical diagnostics have been developed to assess and intercompare the simulations at various spatial and temporal scales, in different sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Western and Eastern Algerian sub-basins, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion), in different dynamical zones (coastal areas, shelves and "open" sea), along key sections (Ibiza and Mallorca Channels, Corsica Channel, ...) and during specific events.

The Impacts of Amazon Deforestation on Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, Leah

Variability in eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation are known to affect Amazonian precipitation, but to what extent do changing Amazonian vegetation and rainfall impact eastern Pacific SST? The Amazon rainforest is threatened by many factors including climate change and clearing for agricultural reasons. Forest fires and dieback are more likely due to increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the region. It is possible that extensive Amazon deforestation can enhance El Nino conditions by weakening the Walker circulation. Correlations between annual rainfall rates over the Amazon and other atmospheric parameters (global precipitation, surface air temperature, low cloud amount, 500 hPa vertical velocity, surface winds, and 200 hPa winds) over the eastern Pacific indicate strong relationships among these fields. Maps of these correlations (teleconnection maps) reveal that when the Amazon is rainy SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific are cold, rainfall is suppressed over the central and eastern Pacific, low clouds are prominent over the eastern and southeastern Pacific, and subsidence over the central and eastern Pacific is enhanced. Precipitation in the Amazon is also consistent with a strong Walker circulation (La Nina conditions), manifest as strong correlations with the easterly surface and westerly 200 hPa zonal winds. Coupling between Amazon rainfall and these fields are seen in observations and model data. Correlations were calculated using data from observations, reanalysis data, two models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/AMIP), and an AMIP run with the model used in this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.1.1). Although the correlations between Amazon precipitation and the aforementioned fields are strong, they do not show causality. In order to investigate the impact of tropical South American deforestation on the Pacific climate, numerical experiments were performed using the CESM. Amazon deforestation was studied in an idealized world where a single continent was covered in forest and then, in a separate simulation, covered in grassland. Four different sets of simulations were carried out: 1) the baseline idealized set-up with prescribed SST, 2) another with an Andes-like mountain range, 3) a simulation with a slab ocean model rather than prescribed SST, and 4) a simulation repeated with the standard Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) replaced by the Superparameterized version (SP-CAM). The continent in these simulations was compared to the Amazon, and the ocean to the west of the continent was compared to the eastern Pacific. All of the simulations showed a strong warming of around 3-4°C over the continent going from forest to grassland. A notable decrease in precipitation over land of about 1-3 mm day-1 and increase to the west of the continent of about 1-2 mm day-1 was also observed in most of the simulations. The simulations with the slab ocean model showed enhanced precipitation changes with a corresponding decrease of 2-4 mm day-1 over land and increase of 3-5 mm day-1 west of the continent. Simulations that used the SP-CAM showed very small changes in precipitation, which was likely due to the decreased spin-up time allowed for these simulations. The decrease in the surface roughness and reduction in the evapotranspiration for the simulations with grassland contributed to these changes in surface temperature and precipitation. The conversion of forest to grassland in our experiments imply that deforestation can lead to weakening of the Walker circulation by weakening easterly surface winds and westerly upper tropospheric winds. These findings suggest that large-scale Amazon deforestation is capable of enhancing El Nino conditions.

Upper-soil moisture inter-comparison from SMOS's products and land surface models over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Aires, Filipe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Gelati, Emiliano; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio

2015-04-01

Soil moisture is a key state variable of the hydrological cycle. It conditions runoff, infiltration and evaporation over continental surfaces, and is key for forecasting droughts and floods. It plays thus an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) can be measured by in situ measurements, by satellite observations or modelled using land surface models. As a complementary tool, data assimilation can be used to combine both modelling and satellite observations. The work presented here is an inter-comparison of retrieved and modelled SSM data, for the 2010 - 2012 period, over the Iberian Peninsula. The region has been chosen because its vegetation cover is not very dense and includes strong contrasts in the rainfall regimes and thus a diversity of behaviours for SSM. Furthermore this semi-arid region is strongly dependent on a good management of its water resources. Satellite observations correspond to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) retrievals: the L2 product from an optimal interpolation retrieval, and 3 other products using Neural Network retrievals with different input information: SMOS time indexes, purely SMOS data, or addition of the European Advanced Scaterometer (ASCAT) backscattering, and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) surface temperature information. The modelled soil moistures have been taken from the ORCHIDEE (ORganising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) land surface models. Both models are forced with the same atmospheric conditions (as part of the Earth2Observe FP7 project) over the period but they represent the surface soil moisture with very different degrees of complexity. ORCHIDEE has 5 levels in the top 5 centimetres of soil while in HTESSEL this variable is part of the top soil moisture level. The two types of SMOS retrievals are compared to the model outputs in their spatial and temporal characteristics. The comparison with the model helps to identify which retrieval configuration is most consistent with our understanding of surface soil moisture in this region. In particular we have determined how each of the soil moisture products is related to the spatio-temporal variations of rainfall. In large parts of the Iberian Peninsula the co-variance of remote sensed SSM and rainfall is consistent with that of the models. But for some regions questions are raised. The variability of SSM observed by SMOS in the North West of the Iberian Peninsula is similar to that of rainfall, at least this relation of SSM and rainfall is closer than suggested by the two models.

SIMBIOS Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fargion, Giulietta S.; McClain, Charles R.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide current documentation of the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project activities, NASA Research Announcement (NRA) research status, satellite data processing, data product validation, and field calibration. This documentation is necessary to ensure that critical information is related to the scientific community and NASA management. This critical information includes the technical difficulties and challenges of validating and combining ocean color data from an array of independent satellite systems to form consistent and accurate global bio-optical time series products. This technical report is not meant as a substitute for scientific literature. Instead, it will provide a ready and responsive vehicle for the multitude of technical reports issued by an operational project. The SIMBIOS Science Team Principal Investigators' (PIs) original contributions to this report are in chapters four and above. The purpose of these contributions is to describe the current research status of the SIMBIOS-NRA-96 funded research. The contributions are published as submitted, with the exception of minor edits to correct obvious grammatical or clerical errors.

Methodology for interpretation of SST retrievals using the AVHRR split window algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbieri, R. W.; Mcclain, C. R.; Endres, D. L.

1983-01-01

Intercomparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) products derived from the operational NOAA-7 AVHRR-II algorithm and in situ observations are made. The 1982 data sets consist of ship survey data during the winter from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), ship and buoy measurements during April and September in the Gulf of Mexico and shipboard observations during April off the N.W. Spanish coast. The analyses included single pixel comparisons and the warmest pixel technique for 2 x 2 pixel and 10 x 10 pixel areas. The reason for using multi-pixel areas was for avoiding cloud contaminated pixels in the vicinity of the field measurements. Care must be taken when applying the warmest pixel technique near oceanic fronts. The Gulf of Mexico results clearly indicate a persistent degradation in algorithm accuracy due to El Chichon aerosols. The MAB and Spanish data sets indicate that very accurate estimates can be achieved if care is taken to avoid clouds and oceanic fronts.

A Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based Measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, During GTE PEM-West and MLOPEX 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, E.; Ridley, B.; Walega, J.; Greenberg, J.; Kok, G.; Staffelbach, T.; Schauffler, S.; Lind, J.; Huebler, G.; Norton, R.

1996-01-01

During October 19-20, 1991, one flight of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West A) mission was conducted near Hawaii as an intercomparison with ground-based measurements of the Mauna Loa Observatory Photochemistry Experiment (MLOPEX 2) and the NOAA Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL). Ozone, reactive nitrogen species, peroxides, hydrocarbons, and halogenated hydrocarbons were measured by investigators aboard the DC-8 aircraft and at the ground site. Lidar cross sections of ozone revealed a complex air mass structure near the island of Hawaii which was evidenced by large variation in some trace gas mixing ratios. This variation limited the time and spatial scales for direct measurement intercomparisons. Where differences occurred between measurements in the same air masses, the intercomparison suggested that biases for some trace gases was due to different calibration scales or, in some cases, instrumental or sampling biases. Relatively large uncertainties were associated with those trace gases present in the low parts per trillion by volume range. Trace gas correlations were used to expand the scope of the intercomparison to identify consistent trends between the different data sets.

How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, Juan P.; Arias, Paola A.; Vieira, Sara C.; Agudelo, Jhoana

2017-11-01

The Choco jet is an important atmospheric feature of Colombian and northern South America hydro-climatology. This work assesses the ability of 26 coupled and 11 uncoupled (AMIP) global climate models (GCMs) included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to simulate the climatological basic features (annual cycle, spatial distribution and vertical structure) of this jet. Using factor and cluster analysis, we objectively classify models in Best, Worst, and Intermediate groups. Despite the coarse resolution of the GCMs, this study demonstrates that nearly all models can represent the existence of the Choco low-level jet. AMIP and Best models present a more realistic simulation of jet. Worst models exhibit biases such as an anomalous southward location of the Choco jet during the whole year and a shallower jet. The model skill to represent this jet comes from their ability to reproduce some of its main causes, such as the temperature and pressure differences between particular regions in the eastern Pacific and western Colombian lands, which are non-local features. Conversely, Worst models considerably underestimate temperature and pressure differences between these key regions. We identify a close relationship between the location of the Choco jet and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and CMIP5 models are able to represent such relationship. Errors in Worst models are related with bias in the location of the ITCZ over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the representation of the topography and the horizontal resolution.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

PubMed

Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Viovy, Nicolas; Leadley, Paul

2012-06-01

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Frankin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; McCaul, Eugene W.

1999-01-01

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili

Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili; ...

2017-01-25

Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

The Open Global Glacier Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

REGIONAL-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

This PowerPoint presentation gives a short synopsis of the state of the science of atmospheric mercury modeling, including a description of recent publications of model codes by EPA, a description of a recent mercury model intercomparison study, and a description of a synthesis p...

Using a Coupled Lake Model with WRF for Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale a coarse reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project reanalysis, hereafter R2) as a proxy for a global climate model (GCM) to examine...

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2006-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2007-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M.

2009-04-01

Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

Hydrographic biases in global coupled climate models and their relation to the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancherel, Yves

2015-01-01

Comparison of the volumetric θ/S distribution of models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) indicates that these models differ widely in their ability to represent the thermohaline properties of water masses. Relationships between features of the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic mean state of these models and aspects of their overturning circulations are investigated. This is achieved quantitatively with the help of seven diagnostic hydrographic stations. These few stations were specifically selected to provide a minimalist schematic of the global water mass system. Relationships between hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic measured with a subset of these stations suggest that hydrographic properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are set by the circulation field of each model, pointing towards deficiencies in the models ability to resolve the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system as a major limitation. Since diapycnal mixing and viscosity parameterizations differ across CMIP3 models and exert a strong control on the overturning, it is likely that these architectural differences ultimately explain the main across-model differences in overturning circulation, temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic. The analysis of properties across the quasi-equilibrium states of the CMIP3 models agrees with previously reported relationships between meridional steric height gradients or horizontal density contrasts at depth and the strength of the deep water cell. Robust relationships are also found in the Southern Ocean linking measures of vertical stratification with the strength of the abyssal circulations across the CMIP3 models. Consistent correlations between aspects of the quasi-equilibrium hydrography in the Southern Ocean and the sensitivity of the abyssal cell to increasing radiative forcing by 2100 were found. Using these relations in conjunction with modern hydrographic observations to interpolate the fate of the abyssal cell suggests that the Southern abyssal cell may decrease by roughly 20 % by the end of the century. Similar systematic relationships between the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic states of the models and the sensitivity of their Atlantic deep water cell could not be found.

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

Inter-Comparison of SMOS and Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity: Effects of the Dielectric Constant and Vicarious Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinnat, Emmanuel P.; Boutin, Jacqueline; Yin, Xiaobin; Le Vine, David M.

2014-01-01

Two spaceborne instruments share the scientific objective of mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius use L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometry to retrieve SSS. We find that SSS retrieved by SMOS is generally lower than SSS retrieved by Aquarius, except for very cold waters where SMOS SSS is higher overall. The spatial distribution of the differences in SSS is similar to the distribution of sea surface temperature. There are several differences in the retrieval algorithm that could explain the observed SSS differences. We assess the impact of the dielectric constant model and the ancillary sea surface salinity used by both missions for calibrating the radiometers and retrieving SSS. The differences in dielectric constant model produce differences in SSS of the order of 0.3 psu and exhibit a dependence on latitude and temperature. We use comparisons with the Argo in situ data to assess the performances of the model in various regions of the globe. Finally, the differences in the ancillary sea surface salinity products used to perform the vicarious calibration of both instruments are relatively small (0.1 psu), but not negligible considering the requirements for spaceborne remote sensing of SSS.

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Collins, W. D.; Pincus, R.

2017-12-01

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited ( 1 W/m2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

GEOS observation systems intercomparison investigation results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berbert, J. H.

1974-01-01

The results of an investigation designed to determine the relative accuracy and precision of the different types of geodetic observation systems used by NASA is presented. A collocation technique was used to minimize the effects of uncertainties in the relative station locations and in the earth's gravity field model by installing accurate reference tracking systems close to the systems to be compared, and by precisely determining their relative survey. The Goddard laser and camera systems were shipped to selected sites, where they tracked the GEOS satellite simultaneously with other systems for an intercomparison observation.

On the linkages between the global carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Mackenzie, Fred; Bouchez, Julien; Knutti, Reto

2013-04-01

State-of-the-art earth system models used for long-term climate projections are becoming ever more complex in terms of not only spatial resolution but also the number of processes. Biogeochemical processes are beginning to be incorporated into these models. The motivation of this study is to quantify how climate projections are influenced by biogeochemical feedbacks. In the climate modeling community, it is virtually accepted that climate-Carbon (C) cycle feedbacks accelerate the future warming (Cox et al. 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2006). It has been demonstrated that the Nitrogen (N) cycle suppresses climate-C cycle feedbacks (Thornton et al. 2009). On the contrary, biogeochemical studies show that the coupled C-N-Phosphorus (P) cycles are intimately interlinked via biosphere and the N-P cycles amplify C cycle feedbacks (Ver et al. 1999). The question as to whether the N-P cycles enhance or attenuate C cycle feedbacks is debated and has a significant implication for projections of future climate. We delve into this problem by using the Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model 3 (TOTEM3), a globally-aggregated C-N-P cycle box model. TOTEM3 is a process-based model that describes the biogeochemical reactions and physical transports involving these elements in the four domains of the Earth system: land, atmosphere, coastal ocean, and open ocean. TOTEM3 is a successor of earlier TOTEM models (Ver et al. 1999; Mackenzie et al. 2011). In our presentation, we provide an overview of fundamental features and behaviors of TOTEM3 such as the mass balance at the steady state and the relaxation time scales to various types of perturbation. We also show preliminary results to investigate how the N-P cycles influence the behavior of the C cycle. References Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler KG, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver AJ, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Mackenzie FT, De Carlo EH, Lerman A (2011) Coupled C, N, P, and O biogeochemical cycling at the land-ocean interface. In: Wolanski E, McLusky DS (eds) Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, vol 5. Academic Press, Waltham, pp 317-342. Thornton PE, Doney SC, Lindsay K, Moore JK, Mahowald N, Randerson JT, Fung I, Lamarque JF, Feddema JJ, Lee YH (2009) Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2099-2120. Ver LMB, Mackenzie FT, Lerman A (1999) Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future. American Journal of Science, 299, 762-801.

Assessment of a bidirectional reflectance distribution correction of above-water and satellite water-leaving radiance in coastal waters.

PubMed

Hlaing, Soe; Gilerson, Alexander; Harmel, Tristan; Tonizzo, Alberto; Weidemann, Alan; Arnone, Robert; Ahmed, Samir

2012-01-10

Water-leaving radiances, retrieved from in situ or satellite measurements, need to be corrected for the bidirectional properties of the measured light in order to standardize the data and make them comparable with each other. The current operational algorithm for the correction of bidirectional effects from the satellite ocean color data is optimized for typical oceanic waters. However, versions of bidirectional reflectance correction algorithms specifically tuned for typical coastal waters and other case 2 conditions are particularly needed to improve the overall quality of those data. In order to analyze the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of case 2 waters, a dataset of typical remote sensing reflectances was generated through radiative transfer simulations for a large range of viewing and illumination geometries. Based on this simulated dataset, a case 2 water focused remote sensing reflectance model is proposed to correct above-water and satellite water-leaving radiance data for bidirectional effects. The proposed model is first validated with a one year time series of in situ above-water measurements acquired by collocated multispectral and hyperspectral radiometers, which have different viewing geometries installed at the Long Island Sound Coastal Observatory (LISCO). Match-ups and intercomparisons performed on these concurrent measurements show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the algorithm currently in use at all wavelengths, with average improvement of 2.4% over the spectral range. LISCO's time series data have also been used to evaluate improvements in match-up comparisons of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data when the proposed BRDF correction is used in lieu of the current algorithm. It is shown that the discrepancies between coincident in-situ sea-based and satellite data decreased by 3.15% with the use of the proposed algorithm. This confirms the advantages of the proposed model over the current one, demonstrating the need for a specific case 2 water BRDF correction algorithm as well as the feasibility of enhancing performance of current and future satellite ocean color remote sensing missions for monitoring of typical coastal waters. © 2012 Optical Society of America

Evaluation and intercomparison of air quality forecasts over Korea during the KORUS-AQ campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seungun; Park, Rokjin J.; Kim, Soontae; Song, Chul H.; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Woo, Jung-Hun

2017-04-01

We evaluate and intercompare ozone and aerosol simulations over Korea during the KORUS-AQ campaign, which was conducted in May-June 2016. Four global and regional air quality models participated in the campaign and provided daily air quality forecasts over Korea to guide aircraft flight paths for detecting air pollution events over Korean peninsula and its nearby oceans. We first evaluate the model performance by comparing simulated and observed hourly surface ozone and PM2.5 concentrations at ground sites in Korea and find that the models successfully capture intermittent air pollution events and reproduce the daily variation of ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. However, significant underestimates of peak ozone concentrations in the afternoon are also found in most models. Among chemical constituents of PM2.5, the models typically overestimate observed nitrate aerosol concentrations and underestimate organic aerosol concentrations, although the observed mass concentrations of PM2.5 are seemingly reproduced by the models. In particular, all models used the same anthropogenic emission inventory (KU-CREATE) for daily air quality forecast, but they show a considerable discrepancy for ozone and aerosols. Compared to individual model results, the ensemble mean of all models shows the best performance with correlation coefficients of 0.73 for ozone and 0.57 for PM2.5. We here investigate contributing factors to the discrepancy, which will serve as a guidance to improve the performance of the air quality forecast.

Remote sensing of aerosols in the Arctic for an evaluation of global climate model simulations

PubMed Central

Glantz, Paul; Bourassa, Adam; Herber, Andreas; Iversen, Trond; Karlsson, Johannes; Kirkevåg, Alf; Maturilli, Marion; Seland, Øyvind; Stebel, Kerstin; Struthers, Hamish; Tesche, Matthias; Thomason, Larry

2014-01-01

In this study Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 555 nm are compared to Sun photometer measurements from Svalbard for a period of 9 years. For the 642 daily coincident measurements that were obtained, MODIS AOT generally varies within the predicted uncertainty of the retrieval over ocean (ΔAOT = ±0.03 ± 0.05 · AOT). The results from the remote sensing have been used to examine the accuracy in estimates of aerosol optical properties in the Arctic, generated by global climate models and from in situ measurements at the Zeppelin station, Svalbard. AOT simulated with the Norwegian Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere Model version 4 Oslo global climate model does not reproduce the observed seasonal variability of the Arctic aerosol. The model overestimates clear-sky AOT by nearly a factor of 2 for the background summer season, while tending to underestimate the values in the spring season. Furthermore, large differences in all-sky AOT of up to 1 order of magnitude are found for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model ensemble for the spring and summer seasons. Large differences between satellite/ground-based remote sensing of AOT and AOT estimated from dry and humidified scattering coefficients are found for the subarctic marine boundary layer in summer. Key Points Remote sensing of AOT is very useful in validation of climate models PMID:25821664

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

In-situ databases and comparison of ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) products with precursor data, towards an integrated approach for ocean colour validation and climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brotas, Vanda; Valente, André; Couto, André B.; Grant, Mike; Chuprin, Andrei; Jackson, Thomas; Groom, Steve; Sathyendranath, Shubha

2014-05-01

Ocean colour (OC) is an Oceanic Essential Climate Variable, which is used by climate modellers and researchers. The European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative project, is the ESA response for the need of climate-quality satellite data, with the goal of providing stable, long-term, satellite-based ECV data products. The ESA Ocean Colour CCI focuses on the production of Ocean Colour ECV uses remote sensing reflectances to derive inherent optical properties and chlorophyll a concentration from ESA's MERIS (2002-2012) and NASA's SeaWiFS (1997 - 2010) and MODIS (2002-2012) sensor archives. This work presents an integrated approach by setting up a global database of in situ measurements and by inter-comparing OC-CCI products with pre-cursor datasets. The availability of in situ databases is fundamental for the validation of satellite derived ocean colour products. A global distribution in situ database was assembled, from several pre-existing datasets, with data spanning between 1997 and 2012. It includes in-situ measurements of remote sensing reflectances, concentration of chlorophyll-a, inherent optical properties and diffuse attenuation coefficient. The database is composed from observations of the following datasets: NOMAD, SeaBASS, MERMAID, AERONET-OC, BOUSSOLE and HOTS. The result was a merged dataset tuned for the validation of satellite-derived ocean colour products. This was an attempt to gather, homogenize and merge, a large high-quality bio-optical marine in situ data, as using all datasets in a single validation exercise increases the number of matchups and enhances the representativeness of different marine regimes. An inter-comparison analysis between OC-CCI chlorophyll-a product and satellite pre-cursor datasets was done with single missions and merged single mission products. Single mission datasets considered were SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS; merged mission datasets were obtained from the GlobColour (GC) as well as the Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs). OC-CCI product was found to be most similar to SeaWiFS record, and generally, the OC-CCI record was most similar to records derived from single mission than merged mission initiatives. Results suggest that CCI product is a more consistent dataset than other available merged mission initiatives. In conclusion, climate related science, requires long term data records to provide robust results, OC-CCI product proves to be a worthy data record for climate research, as it combines multi-sensor OC observations to provide a >15-year global error-characterized record.

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:. [Comparing Chemistry-Climate Models and Observations at Northern Mid-Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.;

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. J.; Forster, P.; Richardson, T.; Myhre, G.; Pincus, R.

2016-12-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the ultimate climate response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea-surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression-based methods. Thirty-year integrations are sufficient to reduce the standard error in global ERF to 0.05 Wm-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the standard error over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea-ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly-averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30-year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea-ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF in models and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

GOSAT and OCO-2 Inter-comparison on Measured Spectral Radiance and Retrieved Carbon Dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, F.; Kuze, A.; Shiomi, K.; Suto, H.; Crisp, D.; Bruegge, C. J.; Schwandner, F. M.

2016-12-01

TANSO-FTS onboard GOSAT and grating spectrometer on OCO-2 use different measurement techniques to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and molecular oxygen (O2). Both instruments observe sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface in almost the same spectral range. As a first step in cross calibrating these two instruments, we compared spectral radiance observations within the three short wave infrared (SWIR) spectral bands centered on the O2 A-band (O2A), the weak CO2 band near 1.6 microns (Weak-CO2) and 2.06 micons (Strong-CO2) bands at temporally coincident and spatially collocated points. In this work, we reconciled the different size of the footprints and evaluated at various types of surface targets such as ocean, desert and forest. For radiometric inter-comparisons, we consider long term instrument sensitivity degradation in orbit and differences in viewing geometry and associated differences in surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). Measured spectral radiances agree very well within 5% for all bands. This presentation will summarize these comparisons of GOSAT and OCO-2 spectral radiance observations and associated estimates of carbon dioxide and related parameters retrieved with the same algorithm at matchup points. We will also discuss instrument related uncertainties from various target observations.

Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X

2005-04-11

This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniquesmore » affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.« less

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...

Reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling during the Cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J. J.; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Sluijs, Appy; Abels, Hemmo A.; Bijl, Peter K.

2016-08-01

Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can more easily be incorporated in different model simulations. The workflow is presented covering a middle-late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), using a MatLab script and a complete set of source files that are provided in the supplementary material.

Causes and Implications of Persistent Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Biases in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T.; Arora, Vivek K.

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations are uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations--in which atmospheric CO2 levels were computed prognostically--for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (RCP 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisonsmore » with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2 levels for the multi-model ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2 estimates of 600 {plus minus} 14 ppm at 2060 and 947 {plus minus} 35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multi-model mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era, and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2 from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.« less

Pelagic functional group modeling: Progress, challenges and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Raleigh R.; Laws, Edward A.; Armstrong, Robert A.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Carlson, Craig A.; Chai, Fei; Doney, Scott C.; Falkowski, Paul G.; Feely, Richard A.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Landry, Michael R.; Keith Moore, J.; Nelson, David M.; Richardson, Tammi L.; Salihoglu, Baris; Schartau, Markus; Toole, Dierdre A.; Wiggert, Jerry D.

2006-03-01

In this paper, we review the state of the art and major challenges in current efforts to incorporate biogeochemical functional groups into models that can be applied on basin-wide and global scales, with an emphasis on models that might ultimately be used to predict how biogeochemical cycles in the ocean will respond to global warming. We define the term "biogeochemical functional group" to refer to groups of organisms that mediate specific chemical reactions in the ocean. Thus, according to this definition, "functional groups" have no phylogenetic meaning—these are composed of many different species with common biogeochemical functions. Substantial progress has been made in the last decade toward quantifying the rates of these various functions and understanding the factors that control them. For some of these groups, we have developed fairly sophisticated models that incorporate this understanding, e.g. for diazotrophs (e.g. Trichodesmium), silica producers (diatoms) and calcifiers (e.g. coccolithophorids and specifically Emiliania huxleyi). However, current representations of nitrogen fixation and calcification are incomplete, i.e., based primarily upon models of Trichodesmium and E. huxleyi, respectively, and many important functional groups have not yet been considered in open-ocean biogeochemical models. Progress has been made over the last decade in efforts to simulate dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and cycling (i.e., by dinoflagellates and prymnesiophytes) and denitrification, but these efforts are still in their infancy, and many significant problems remain. One obvious gap is that virtually all functional group modeling efforts have focused on autotrophic microbes, while higher trophic levels have been completely ignored. It appears that in some cases (e.g., calcification), incorporating higher trophic levels may be essential not only for representing a particular biogeochemical reaction, but also for modeling export. Another serious problem is our tendency to model the organisms for which we have the most validation data (e.g., E. huxleyi and Trichodesmium) even when they may represent only a fraction of the biogeochemical functional group we are trying to represent. When we step back and look at the paleo-oceanographic record, it suggests that oxygen concentrations have played a central role in the evolution and emergence of many of the key functional groups that influence biogeochemical cycles in the present-day ocean. However, more subtle effects are likely to be important over the next century like changes in silicate supply or turbulence that can influence the relative success of diatoms versus dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and diazotrophs. In general, inferences drawn from the paleo-oceanographic record and theoretical work suggest that global warming will tend to favor the latter because it will give rise to increased stratification. However, decreases in pH and Fe supply could adversely impact coccolithophorids and diazotrophs in the future. It may be necessary to include explicit dynamic representations of nitrogen fixation, denitrification, silicification and calcification in our models if our goal is predicting the oceanic carbon cycle in the future, because these processes appear to play a very significant role in the carbon cycle of the present-day ocean and they are sensitive to climate change. Observations and models suggest that it may also be necessary to include the DMS cycle to predict future climate, though the effects are still highly uncertain. We have learned a tremendous amount about the distributions and biogeochemical impact of bacteria in the ocean in recent years, yet this improved understanding has not yet been incorporated into many of our models. All of these considerations lead us toward the development of increasingly complex models. However, recent quantitative model intercomparison studies suggest that continuing to add complexity and more functional groups to our ecosystem models may lead to decreases in predictive ability if the models are not properly constrained with available data. We also caution that capturing the present-day variability tells us little about how well a particular model can predict the future. If our goal is to develop models that can be used to predict how the oceans will respond to global warming, then we need to make more rigorous assessments of predictive skill using the available data.

NAO and its relationship with the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofan; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Liu, Ting

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most prominent teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and has recently been found to be both an internal source and useful predictor of the multidecadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT). In this study, we examine how well the variability of the NAO and NHT are reproduced in historical simulations generated by the 40 models that constitute Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). All of the models are able to capture the basic characteristics of the interannual NAO pattern reasonably well, whereas the simulated decadal NAO patterns show less consistency with the observations. The NAO fluctuations over multidecadal time scales are underestimated by almost all models. Regarding the NHT multidecadal variability, the models generally represent the externally forced variations well but tend to underestimate the internal NHT. With respect to the performance of the models in reproducing the NAO-NHT relationship, 14 models capture the observed decadal lead of the NAO, and model discrepancies in the representation of this linkage are derived mainly from their different interpretation of the underlying physical processes associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This study suggests that one way to improve the simulation of the multidecadal variability of the internal NHT lies in better simulation of the multidecadal variability of the NAO and its delayed effect on the NHT variability via slow ocean processes.

Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Y.; Shen, C.; Cheng, H.; Xu, Y.

2014-05-01

We use proxy data and modeled data from 1000 year model simulations with a variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe event of persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to roughly simulate most of these droughts over the study area during the last millennium such as those that occurred during the periods of 1123-1152, 1197-1223, 1353-1363, 1428-1449, 1479-1513, and 1632-1645. Our analyses suggest that these six well-captured droughts may caused by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) weakening. Study on the wavelet transform and spectral analysis reveals these events occurred all at the statistically significant 15-35-year timescale. A modeled data intercomparison suggests the possibility that solar activity may be the primary driver in the occurrence of the 1129-1144, 1354-1365, 1466-1491 and 1631-1648 droughts as identified by the model. However another possibility that these events may be related to internal variability cannot be excluded. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and SST pattern in the Pacific Ocean could not be found either in the modeled or proxy data. Our analyses also indicate that large volcanic eruptions play a role as an amplifier in the drought of 1631-1648 and caused the droughts of 1830-1853 and 1958-1976, which was identified by the model.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.; Smith, Christopher J.; Samset, Bjorn H.; Myhre, Gunnar; Andrews, Timothy; Pincus, Robert; Schulz, Michael

2016-10-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reduce the 5-95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1 W m-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

PubMed Central

Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2009-01-01

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

INTERCOMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE VEGETATION DATABASES FOR REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Vegetation cover data are used to characterize several regional air quality modeling processes, including the calculation of heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes with the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) and the estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound and nitric oxide...

Climate model biases and statistical downscaling for application in hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impact studies use global climate model (GCM) simulations to define future temperature and precipitation. The best available bias-corrected GCM output was obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). CMIP5 data (temperature and precipitation) are available in d...

A preliminary intercomparison between numerical upper wind forecasts and research aircraft measurements of jet streams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shapiro, M. A.

1982-01-01

During the past several years, research on the structure of extra-tropical jet streams has been carried out with direct measurements with instrumented research aircraft from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). These measurements have been used to describe the wind, temperature, turbulence and chemical characteristics of jet streams. A fundamental question is one of assessing the potential value of existing operational numerical forecast models for forecasting the meteorological conditions along commercial aviation flight routes so as to execute Minimum Flight Time tracks and thus obtain the maximum efficiency in aviation fuel consumption. As an initial attempt at resolving this question, the 12 hour forecast output from two models was expressed in terms of a common output format to ease their intercomparison. The chosen models were: (1) the Fine-Mesh Spectral hemispheric and (2) the Limited Area Fine Mesh (LFM) model.

A Methodological Inter-Comparison of Gridded Meteorological Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Longman, R. J.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Arnold, J.

2017-12-01

Here we present a gridded meteorology inter-comparison using the state of Hawaíi as a testbed. This inter-comparison is motivated by two general goals: 1) the broad user community of gridded observation based meteorological fields should be aware of inter-product differences and the reasons they exist, which allows users to make informed choices on product selection to best meet their specific application(s); 2) we want to demonstrate the utility of inter-comparisons to meet the first goal, yet highlight that they are limited to mostly generic statements regarding attribution of differences that limits our understanding of these complex algorithms and obscures future research directions. Hawaíi is a useful testbed because it is a meteorologically complex region with well-known spatial features that are tied to specific physical processes (e.g. the trade wind inversion). From a practical standpoint, there are now several monthly climatological and daily precipitation and temperature datasets available that are being used for impact modeling. General conclusions that have emerged are: 1) differences in input station data significantly influence product differences; 2) prediction of precipitation occurrence is crucial across multiple metrics; 3) derived temperature statistics (e.g. diurnal temperature range) may have large spatial differences across products; and 4) attribution of differences to methodological choices is difficult and may limit the outcomes of these inter-comparisons, particularly from a development viewpoint. Thus, we want to continue to move the community towards frameworks that allow for multiple options throughout the product generation chain and allow for more systematic testing.

C4MIP - The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-08-01

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; ...

2016-08-25

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Jaclyn N.; Langlais, Clothilde; Maes, Christophe

2014-06-01

The equatorial edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is operationally identified by one isotherm ranging between 28° and 29 °C, chosen to align with the interannual variability of strong zonal salinity gradients and the convergence of zonal ocean currents. The simulation of this edge is examined in 19 models from the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the historical period from 1950 to 2000. The dynamic warm pool edge (DWPE), where the zonal currents converge, is difficult to determine from limited observations and biased models. A new analysis technique is introduced where a proxy for DWPE is determined by the isotherm that most closely correlates with the movements of the strong salinity gradient. It can therefore be a different isotherm in each model. The DWPE is simulated much closer to observations than if a direct temperature-only comparison is made. Aspects of the DWPE remain difficult for coupled models to simulate including the mean longitude, the interannual excursions, and the zonal convergence of ocean currents. Some models have only very weak salinity gradients trapped to the western side of the basin making it difficult to even identify a DWPE. The model's DWPE are generally 1-2 °C cooler than observed. In line with theory, the magnitude of the zonal migrations of the DWPE are strongly related to the amplitudes of the Nino3.4 SST index. Nevertheless, a better simulation of the mean location of the DWPE does not necessarily improve the amplitude of a model's ENSO. It is also found that in a few models (CSIROMk3.6, inmcm and inmcm4-esm) the warm pool displacements result from a net heating or cooling rather than a zonal advection of warm water. The simulation of the DWPE has implications for ENSO dynamics when considering ENSO paradigms such as the delayed action oscillator mechanism, the Advective-Reflective oscillator, and the zonal-advective feedback. These are also discussed in the context of the CMIP5 simulations.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Earth orientation from lunar laser ranging and an error analysis of polar motion services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickey, J. O.; Newhall, X. X.; Williams, J. G.

1985-01-01

Lunar laser ranging (LLR) data are obtained on the basis of the timing of laser pulses travelling from observatories on earth to retroreflectors placed on the moon's surface during the Apollo program. The modeling and analysis of the LLR data can provide valuable insights into earth's dynamics. The feasibility to model accurately the lunar orbit over the full 13-year observation span makes it possible to conduct relatively long-term studies of variations in the earth's rotation. A description is provided of general analysis techniques, and the calculation of universal time (UT1) from LLR is discussed. Attention is also given to a summary of intercomparisons with different techniques, polar motion results and intercomparisons, and a polar motion error analysis.

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

How well do we know the global water cycle? - Intercomparison and Performance Analysis of the Hydrological Cycle in Three State-of-the-Art Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, H.; Lorenz, C.

2012-12-01

The three state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis models—namely, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA; NASA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; NCEP)—are analyzed and compared with independent observations (GPCC; GPCP; CRU; CPC; DEL; HOAPS) in the period between 1989 and 2006. Comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates from the three models with gridded observations reveals large differences between the reanalyses and also of the observation datasets. A major source of uncertainty in the observations is the spatial distribution and change of the number of gauges over time. In South America for example, active measuring stations were reduced from 4267 to 390. The quality of precipitation estimates from the reanalyses strongly depends on the geographic location, as there are significant differences especially in tropical regions. The closure of the water cycle in the three reanalyses is analyzed by estimating long-term mean values for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and moisture flux divergence. Major shortcomings in the moisture budgets of the datasets are mainly due to inconsistencies of the net precipitation minus evaporation and evapotranspiration, respectively, (P-E) estimates over the oceans and landmasses. This imbalance largely originates from the assimilation of radiance sounding data from the NOAA-15 satellite, which results in an unrealistic increase of oceanic P-E in the MERRA and CFSR budgets. Overall, ERA-Interim shows both a comparatively reasonable closure of the terrestrial and atmospheric water balance and a reasonable agreement with the observation datasets. The limited performance of the three state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the hydrological cycle, however, puts the use of these models for climate trend analyses and long-term water budget studies into question.

Assessment of a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Correction of Above-Water and Satellite Water-Leaving Radiance in Coastal Waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hlaing, Soe; Gilerson, Alexander; Harmal, Tristan; Tonizzo, Alberto; Weidemann, Alan; Arnone, Robert; Ahmed, Samir

2012-01-01

Water-leaving radiances, retrieved from in situ or satellite measurements, need to be corrected for the bidirectional properties of the measured light in order to standardize the data and make them comparable with each other. The current operational algorithm for the correction of bidirectional effects from the satellite ocean color data is optimized for typical oceanic waters. However, versions of bidirectional reflectance correction algorithms specifically tuned for typical coastal waters and other case 2 conditions are particularly needed to improve the overall quality of those data. In order to analyze the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of case 2 waters, a dataset of typical remote sensing reflectances was generated through radiative transfer simulations for a large range of viewing and illumination geometries. Based on this simulated dataset, a case 2 water focused remote sensing reflectance model is proposed to correct above-water and satellite water-leaving radiance data for bidirectional effects. The proposed model is first validated with a one year time series of in situ above-water measurements acquired by collocated multispectral and hyperspectral radiometers, which have different viewing geometries installed at the Long Island Sound Coastal Observatory (LISCO). Match-ups and intercomparisons performed on these concurrent measurements show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the algorithm currently in use at all wavelengths, with average improvement of 2.4% over the spectral range. LISCO's time series data have also been used to evaluate improvements in match-up comparisons of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data when the proposed BRDF correction is used in lieu of the current algorithm. It is shown that the discrepancies between coincident in-situ sea-based and satellite data decreased by 3.15% with the use of the proposed algorithm.

A benchmark study of the sea-level equation in GIA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; van der Wal, Wouter; Riva, Riccardo; Spada, Giorgio; Simon, Karen; Blank, Bas; Sun, Yu; Melini, Daniele; James, Tom; Bradley, Sarah

2017-04-01

The sea-level load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is described by the so called sea-level equation (SLE), which represents the mass redistribution between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming earth. Various levels of complexity of SLE have been proposed in the past, ranging from a simple mean global sea level (the so-called eustatic sea level) to the load with a deforming ocean bottom, migrating coastlines and a changing shape of the geoid. Several approaches to solve the SLE have been derived, from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison amongst the solvers through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of benchmark experiments designed for testing and comparing numerical implementations of the SLE. Our approach starts with simple load cases even though the benchmark will not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario. In the longer term we aim for a benchmark with a realistic loading scenario, and also for benchmark solutions with rotational feedback. The current benchmark uses an earth model for which Love numbers have been computed and benchmarked in Spada et al (2011). In spite of the significant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent to the various algorithms. Literature G. Spada, V. R. Barletta, V. Klemann, R. E. M. Riva, Z. Martinec, P. Gasperini, B. Lund, D. Wolf, L. L. A. Vermeersen, and M. A. King, 2011. A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes. Geophys. J. Int. 185: 106-132 doi:10.1111/j.1365-

Multi-model study of HTAP II on sulfur and nitrogen deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jiani; Fu, Joshua S.; Dentener, Frank; Sun, Jian; Emmons, Louisa; Tilmes, Simone; Sudo, Kengo; Flemming, Johannes; Eiof Jonson, Jan; Gravel, Sylvie; Bian, Huisheng; Davila, Yanko; Henze, Daven K.; Lund, Marianne T.; Kucsera, Tom; Takemura, Toshihiko; Keating, Terry

2018-05-01

This study uses multi-model ensemble results of 11 models from the second phase of Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II) to calculate the global sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition in 2010. Modeled wet deposition is evaluated with observation networks in North America, Europe and East Asia. The modeled results agree well with observations, with 76-83 % of stations being predicted within ±50 % of observations. The models underestimate SO42-, NO3- and NH4+ wet depositions in some European and East Asian stations but overestimate NO3- wet deposition in the eastern United States. Intercomparison with previous projects (PhotoComp, ACCMIP and HTAP I) shows that HTPA II has considerably improved the estimation of deposition at European and East Asian stations. Modeled dry deposition is generally higher than the inferential data calculated by observed concentration and modeled velocity in North America, but the inferential data have high uncertainty, too. The global S deposition is 84 Tg(S) in 2010, with 49 % in continental regions and 51 % in the ocean (19 % of which coastal). The global N deposition consists of 59 Tg(N) oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition and 64 Tg(N) reduced nitrogen (NHx) deposition in 2010. About 65 % of N is deposited in continental regions, and 35 % in the ocean (15 % of which coastal). The estimated outflow of pollution from land to ocean is about 4 Tg(S) for S deposition and 18 Tg(N) for N deposition. Comparing our results to the results in 2001 from HTAP I, we find that the global distributions of S and N deposition have changed considerably during the last 10 years. The global S deposition decreases 2 Tg(S) (3 %) from 2001 to 2010, with significant decreases in Europe (5 Tg(S) and 55 %), North America (3 Tg(S) and 29 %) and Russia (2 Tg(S) and 26 %), and increases in South Asia (2 Tg(S) and 42 %) and the Middle East (1 Tg(S) and 44 %). The global N deposition increases by 7 Tg(N) (6 %), mainly contributed by South Asia (5 Tg(N) and 39 %), East Asia (4 Tg(N) and 21 %) and Southeast Asia (2 Tg(N) and 21 %). The NHx deposition increases with no control policy on NH3 emission in North America. On the other hand, NOy deposition has started to dominate in East Asia (especially China) due to boosted NOx emission.

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilbourne, Hali; Klockmann, Marlene; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega, Pablo; Romanou, Anastasia; Srokosz, Meric; Szuts, Zoltan; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Hall, Ian; Heimbach, Patrick;