Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Dorazio, Robert M.; Soldaat, Leo; Van Strien, Arco; Zuiderwijk, Annie; Royle, J. Andrew

2009-01-01

1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications. Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important conceptual benefit provided by temporal replicate observations in terms of the interpretability of animal counts.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Demographic Characteristics of a Maine Woodcock Population and Effects of Habitat Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dwyer, T.J.; Sepik, G.F.; Derleth, E.L.; McAuley, D.G.

1988-01-01

A population of American woodcock (Scolopax minor) was studied on a 3,401-ha area of the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Maine from 1976 through 1985. During 1976-83, from 4 to 64 clearcuts were created each year, opening up large contiguous blocks of forest. A combination of mist nets, ground traps, nightlighting techniques, and trained dogs were used to capture and band 1,884 birds during the first 5 years. Capture and recapture data (totaling 3,009 observations) were used with both demographically closed and open population models to estimate population size and, for open population models, summer survival. Flying young, especially young males, represented the greatest proportion of all captures; analysis showed that young males were more prone to capture than young females. Male courtship began about 24 March each year, usually when there was still snow in wooded areas. Males ~2 years old dominated singing grounds during April each year, but this situation changed and first-year males dominated singing grounds in May. Singing males shifted from older established singing grounds to new clearcuts soon after we initiated forest management. Many males were subdominant at singing grounds despite an abundance of unoccupied openings. Three hundred adult females were captured and, except for 1978, the majority were ~2 years old. The year in which female homing rate was lowest(1979) was preceded by the year with the largest number of l-year-old brood female captures and a summer drought. Summer survival of young was lowest in 1978 and was attributed to summer drought. The year 1979 had an abnormally cool and wet spring, and was the poorest for production of young. Capture ratios of young-to-adult females obtained by nightlighting could be used to predict production on our study area. Closed population model estimates did not seem to fit either young or adult data sets well. Instead, a partially open capture-recapture model that allowed death but no immigration seemed to fit best. Only the number of males in the population changed significantly during the study. An increase from 88 males in 1976 to 156 in 1980 was attributed to habitat management. Singingmale surveys on our area detected little change in the number of singing males, but our independent population estimates from mark-recapture data showed a larger total male population by 1980. Annual density estimates for all age and sex classes ranged from 19 to 25 birds/l00 ha. A hypothesis on the breeding system of the American woodcock is presented as well as a discussion of management implications, including the importance of creating high-quality habitat on private lands.

Modeling quorum sensing trade-offs between bacterial cell density and system extension from open boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marenda, Mattia; Zanardo, Marina; Trovato, Antonio; Seno, Flavio; Squartini, Andrea

2016-12-01

Bacterial communities undergo collective behavioural switches upon producing and sensing diffusible signal molecules; a mechanism referred to as Quorum Sensing (QS). Exemplarily, biofilm organic matrices are built concertedly by bacteria in several environments. QS scope in bacterial ecology has been debated for over 20 years. Different perspectives counterpose the role of density reporter for populations to that of local environment diffusivity probe for individual cells. Here we devise a model system where tubes of different heights contain matrix-embedded producers and sensors. These tubes allow non-limiting signal diffusion from one open end, thereby showing that population spatial extension away from an open boundary can be a main critical factor in QS. Experimental data, successfully recapitulated by a comprehensive mathematical model, demonstrate how tube height can overtake the role of producer density in triggering sensor activation. The biotic degradation of the signal is found to play a major role and to be species-specific and entirely feedback-independent.

Modeling quorum sensing trade-offs between bacterial cell density and system extension from open boundaries.

PubMed

Marenda, Mattia; Zanardo, Marina; Trovato, Antonio; Seno, Flavio; Squartini, Andrea

2016-12-14

Bacterial communities undergo collective behavioural switches upon producing and sensing diffusible signal molecules; a mechanism referred to as Quorum Sensing (QS). Exemplarily, biofilm organic matrices are built concertedly by bacteria in several environments. QS scope in bacterial ecology has been debated for over 20 years. Different perspectives counterpose the role of density reporter for populations to that of local environment diffusivity probe for individual cells. Here we devise a model system where tubes of different heights contain matrix-embedded producers and sensors. These tubes allow non-limiting signal diffusion from one open end, thereby showing that population spatial extension away from an open boundary can be a main critical factor in QS. Experimental data, successfully recapitulated by a comprehensive mathematical model, demonstrate how tube height can overtake the role of producer density in triggering sensor activation. The biotic degradation of the signal is found to play a major role and to be species-specific and entirely feedback-independent.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Braden, Ella; Latham, David W.

2008-08-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Gosnell, Natalie; Latham, David W.

2009-02-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Braden, Ella; Latham, David W.

2008-02-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

PubMed

Hameed, Sarah O; White, J Wilson; Miller, Seth H; Nickols, Kerry J; Morgan, Steven G

2016-06-29

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Vancomycin Used in Open Heart Surgery: Model-Based Evaluation of Standard Dosing Regimens.

PubMed

Alqahtani, Saeed A; Alsultan, Abdullah S; Alqattan, Hussain M; Eldemerdash, Ahmed; Albacker, Turki B

2018-04-23

The purpose of this study was to investigate the population pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in patients undergoing open heart surgery. In this observational pharmacokinetic study, multiple blood samples were drawn over a 48-h period of intravenous vancomycin in patients who were undergoing open heart surgery. Blood samples were analysed using the Architect i4000SR Immunoassay Analyzer. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed using Monolix 4.4 software. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) simulations were performed to explore the ability of different dosage regimens to achieve the pharmacodynamic targets. One-hundred and sixty-eight blood samples were analysed from 28 patients. The pharmacokinetics of vancomycin was best described by a two-compartment model with between-subject variability in CL, V of the central compartment, and V of the peripheral compartment. CL and central compartment V of vancomycin were related to CL CR , body weight, and albumin concentration. Dosing simulations showed that standard dosing regimens of 1 and 1.5 g failed to achieve the PK-PD target of AUC 0--24 /MIC > 400 for an MIC of 1 mg/L, while high weight-based dosing regimens were able to achieve the PK-PD target. In summary, administration of standard doses of 1 and 1.5 g of vancomycin two times daily provided inadequate antibiotic prophylaxis in patients undergoing open heart surgery. The same findings were obtained when 15 mg/kg and 20 mg/kg doses of vancomycin were administered. Achieving the PK-PD target required higher doses (25 mg/kg and 30 mg/kg) of vancomycin. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Link, William A; Barker, Richard J

2005-03-01

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2005-01-01

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model for open population capture–recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis–Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.

Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-10-11

The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

2016-07-15

We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

Laparoscopic versus open inguinal hernia repair in patients with obesity: an American College of Surgeons NSQIP clinical outcomes analysis.

PubMed

Froylich, Dvir; Haskins, Ivy N; Aminian, Ali; O'Rourke, Colin P; Khorgami, Zhamak; Boules, Mena; Sharma, Gautam; Brethauer, Stacy A; Schauer, Phillip R; Rosen, Michael J

2017-03-01

The laparoscopic approach to inguinal hernia repair (IHR) has proven beneficial in reducing postoperative pain and facilitating earlier return to normal activity. Except for indications such as recurrent or bilateral inguinal hernias, there remains a paucity of data that specifically identities patient populations that would benefit most from the laparoscopic approach to IHR. Nevertheless, previous experience has shown that obese patients have increased wound morbidity following open surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a laparoscopic versus open surgical approach to IHR on early postoperative morbidity and mortality in the obese population using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database. All IHRs were identified within the NSQIP database from 2005 to 2013. Obesity was defined as a body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 . A propensity score matching technique between the laparoscopic and open approaches was used. Association of obesity with postoperative outcomes was investigated using an adjusted and unadjusted model based on clinically important preoperative variables identified by the propensity scoring system. A total of 7346 patients met inclusion criteria; 5573 patients underwent laparoscopic IHR, while 1773 patients underwent open IHR. On univariate analysis, obese patients who underwent laparoscopic IHR were less likely to experience a deep surgical site infection, wound dehiscence, or return to the operating room compared with those who underwent an open IHR. In both the adjusted and unadjusted propensity score models, there was no difference in outcomes between those who underwent laparoscopic versus open IHR. The laparoscopic approach to IHR in obese patients has similar outcomes as an open approach with regard to 30-day wound events. Preoperative risk stratification of obese patients is important to determining the appropriate surgical approach to IHR. Further studies are needed to investigate the long-term effects of the open and laparoscopic approaches to IHR in the obese population.

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

PubMed Central

Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

2014-01-01

Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

Approaches for the direct estimation of lambda, and demographic contributions to lambda, using capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2002-01-01

We first consider the estimation of the finite rate of population increase or population growth rate, lambda sub i, using capture-recapture data from open populations. We review estimation and modelling of lambda sub i under three main approaches to modelling open-population data: the classic approach of Jolly (1965) and Seber (1965), the superpopulation approach of Crosbie & Manly (1985) and Schwarz & Arnason (1996), and the temporal symmetry approach of Pradel (1996). Next, we consider the contributions of different demographic components to lambda sub i using a probabilistic approach based on the composition of the population at time i + 1 (Nichols et al., 2000b). The parameters of interest are identical to the seniority parameters, gamma sub i, of Pradel (1996). We review estimation of gamma sub i under the classic, superpopulation, and temporal symmetry approaches. We then compare these direct estimation approaches for lambda sub i and gamma sub i with analogues computed using projection matrix asymptotics. We also discuss various extensions of the estimation approaches to multistate applications and to joint likelihoods involving multiple data types.

Teachers as a Special Target Population at the Open University of Israel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

1992-01-01

Examines the programs of the Open University of Israel (OUI) that offer preservice and in-service teacher training. Policies and trends that led to a new model of Israeli teacher education are discussed, and the role of distance teaching universities in teacher training is considered. (15 references) (LRW)

Do open-cycle hatcheries relying on tourism conserve sea turtles? Sri Lankan developments and economic-ecological considerations.

PubMed

Tisdell, Clem; Wilson, Clevo

2005-04-01

By combining economic analysis of markets with ecological parameters, this article considers the role that tourism-based sea turtle hatcheries (of an open-cycle type) can play in conserving populations of sea turtles. Background is provided on the nature and development of such hatcheries in Sri Lanka. The modeling facilitates the assessment of the impacts of turtle hatcheries on the conservation of sea turtles and enables the economic and ecological consequences of tourism, based on such hatcheries, to be better appreciated. The results demonstrate that sea turtle hatcheries serving tourists can make a positive contribution to sea turtle conservation, but that their conservation effectiveness depends on the way they are managed. Possible negative effects are also identified. Economic market models are combined with turtle population survival relationships to predict the conservation impact of turtle hatcheries and their consequence for the total economic value obtained from sea turtle populations.

Probabilistic prediction models for aggregate quarry siting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, G.R.; Larkins, P.M.

2007-01-01

Weights-of-evidence (WofE) and logistic regression techniques were used in a GIS framework to predict the spatial likelihood (prospectivity) of crushed-stone aggregate quarry development. The joint conditional probability models, based on geology, transportation network, and population density variables, were defined using quarry location and time of development data for the New England States, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA. The Quarry Operation models describe the distribution of active aggregate quarries, independent of the date of opening. The New Quarry models describe the distribution of aggregate quarries when they open. Because of the small number of new quarries developed in the study areas during the last decade, independent New Quarry models have low parameter estimate reliability. The performance of parameter estimates derived for Quarry Operation models, defined by a larger number of active quarries in the study areas, were tested and evaluated to predict the spatial likelihood of new quarry development. Population density conditions at the time of new quarry development were used to modify the population density variable in the Quarry Operation models to apply to new quarry development sites. The Quarry Operation parameters derived for the New England study area, Carolina study area, and the combined New England and Carolina study areas were all similar in magnitude and relative strength. The Quarry Operation model parameters, using the modified population density variables, were found to be a good predictor of new quarry locations. Both the aggregate industry and the land management community can use the model approach to target areas for more detailed site evaluation for quarry location. The models can be revised easily to reflect actual or anticipated changes in transportation and population features. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Preoperative atrial fibrillation and long-term survival after open heart surgery in a rural tertiary heart institute.

PubMed

O'Neal, Wesley T; Efird, Jimmy T; Davies, Stephen W; Choi, Yuk Ming; Anderson, Curtis A; Kindell, Linda C; O'Neal, Jason B; Ferguson, T Bruce; Chitwood, W Randolph; Kypson, Alan P

2013-01-01

Preoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality after open heart surgery. However, the impact of preoperative AF on long-term survival after open heart surgery has not been widely examined in rural populations. Patients from rural regions are less likely to receive treatment for cardiac conditions and to have adequate medical insurance coverage. To examine the influence of preoperative AF on long-term survival following open heart surgery in rural eastern North Carolina. Long-term survival was compared in patients with and without preoperative AF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and CABG plus valve (CABG + V) surgery between 2002 and 2011. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using a Cox regression model. The study population consisted of 5438 patients. A total of 263 (5%) patients had preoperative AF. Preoperative AF was an independent predictor of long-term survival (open heart surgery: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3-2.0; CABG: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3-2.1; CABG + V: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.1-2.3). Preoperative AF is an important predictor of long-term survival after open heart surgery in this rural population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mouth opening in patients irradiated for head and neck cancer: a prospective repeated measures study.

PubMed

Kamstra, J I; Dijkstra, P U; van Leeuwen, M; Roodenburg, J L N; Langendijk, J A

2015-05-01

Aims of this prospective cohort study were (1) to analyze the course of mouth opening up to 48months post-radiotherapy (RT), (2) to assess risk factors predicting decrease in mouth opening, and (3) to develop a multivariable prediction model for change in mouth opening in a large sample of patients irradiated for head and neck cancer. Mouth opening was measured prior to RT (baseline) and at 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, and 48months post-RT. The primary outcome variable was mouth opening. Potential risk factors were entered into a linear mixed model analysis (manual backward-stepwise elimination) to create a multivariable prediction model. The interaction terms between time and risk factors that were significantly related to mouth opening were explored. The study population consisted of 641 patients: 70.4% male, mean age at baseline 62.3years (sd 12.5). Primary tumors were predominantly located in the oro- and nasopharynx (25.3%) and oral cavity (20.6%). Mean mouth opening at baseline was 38.7mm (sd 10.8). Six months post-RT, mean mouth opening was smallest, 36.7mm (sd 10.0). In the linear mixed model analysis, mouth opening was statistically predicted by the location of the tumor, natural logarithm of time post-RT in months (Ln (months)), gender, baseline mouth opening, and baseline age. All main effects interacted with Ln (months). The mean mouth opening decreased slightly over time. Mouth opening was predicted by tumor location, time, gender, baseline mouth opening, and age. The model can be used to predict mouth opening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

PubMed

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Effect of intensive care unit organizational model and structure on outcomes in patients with acute lung injury.

PubMed

Treggiari, Miriam M; Martin, Diane P; Yanez, N David; Caldwell, Ellen; Hudson, Leonard D; Rubenfeld, Gordon D

2007-10-01

Prior studies supported an association between intensive care unit (ICU) organizational model or staffing patterns and outcome in critically ill patients. To examine the association of closed versus open models with patient mortality across adult ICUs in King County (WA). Cohort study of patients with acute lung injury (ALI). ICU structure, organization, and patient care practices were assessed using self-administered mail questionnaires completed by the medical director and nurse manager. We defined closed ICUs as units that required patient transfer to or mandatory patient comanagement by an intensivist and open ICUs as those relying on other organizational models. Outcomes were obtained from the King County Lung Injury Project, a population-based cohort of patients with ALI. The main endpoint was hospital mortality. Of 24 eligible ICUs, 13 ICUs were designated closed and 11 open. Complete survey data were available for 23 (96%) ICUs. Higher physician and nurse availability was reported in closed versus open ICUs. A total of 684 of 1,075 (63%) of patients with ALI were cared for in closed ICUs. After adjusting for potential confounders, patients with ALI cared for in closed ICUs had reduced hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.53, 0.89; P = 0.004). Consultation by a pulmonologist in open ICUs was not associated with improved mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.74, 1.20; P = 0.62). These findings were robust for varying assumptions about the study population definition. Patients with ALI cared for in a closed-model ICU have reduced mortality. These data support recommendations to implement structured intensive care in the United States.

Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM): Background and Applications of Data Automation

EPA Science Inventory

The Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) project demonstrates the development of a comprehensive set of open source software tools that overcome obstacles to accessing data needed by automating the process of populating model input data sets with environmental data available fr...

A Study of The Binary and Anomalous Stellar Populations in Two Intermediate-Aged Open Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, Robert D.; Milliman, Katelyn; Geller, Aaron M.; Gosnell, Natalie

2010-08-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. It is now clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, sophisticated N-body models show that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. These stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose to expand our highly successful radial-velocity survey to include two new rich open clusters NGC 7789 (1.8 Gyr, -0.1 dex) and NGC 2506 (2.1 Gyr, -0.4 dex) as part of the WIYN Open Cluster Study (WOCS). Though these two clusters are both of intermediate age and of similar richness, they have quite different blue straggler populations. NGC 2506 has only 10 known blue stragglers, while NGC 7789 has at least 27, among the largest known populations of blue stragglers in an open cluster. Defining the hard-binary populations in these two clusters is critical for understanding the factors that determine blue straggler production rates. Our proposed observations will establish the hard- binary fraction and frequency distributions of orbital parameters (periods, eccentricities, mass-ratios, etc.) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary, and will provide a comprehensive survey of the blue stragglers and other anomalous stars, including secure cluster memberships and binary properties. These data will then form direct constraints for detailed N-body open cluster simulations from which we will study the impact of the hard-binary population on the production rates and mechanisms of blue stragglers.

Open-ended and Open-door Treatment Groups for Young People with Mental Illness.

PubMed

Miller, Rachel; Mason, Susan E

2012-01-01

The concept of open-ended groups is expanded to include an open-door model (OEOD) wherein members with severe mental illnesses, including schizophrenia disorders and bi-polar, can join, leave, and re-enter groups as their life circumstances dictate their availability and willingness for treatment. This model is grounded on the work of Schopler and Galinsky's (1984/2006) and Galinsky and Schopler's (1989) theses on the value and processes of open-ended groups and includes perspectives on mutual aid and group development. Groupwork with the OEOD format is illustrated with examples taken from a group of 79 participants diagnosed with first-episode schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorders, 40 of who had co-occurring substance abuse. Of the 79 participants in the OEOD group program, 70 (89%) remained in treatment for the maximum of 3 years. The over-all value of group treatment for this population is reviewed along with the small number of available publications on open-ended and open-door-type groups.

Open-ended and Open-door Treatment Groups for Young People with Mental Illness

PubMed Central

MILLER, RACHEL; MASON, SUSAN E.

2012-01-01

The concept of open-ended groups is expanded to include an open-door model (OEOD) wherein members with severe mental illnesses, including schizophrenia disorders and bi-polar, can join, leave, and re-enter groups as their life circumstances dictate their availability and willingness for treatment. This model is grounded on the work of Schopler and Galinsky’s (1984/2006) and Galinsky and Schopler’s (1989) theses on the value and processes of open-ended groups and includes perspectives on mutual aid and group development. Groupwork with the OEOD format is illustrated with examples taken from a group of 79 participants diagnosed with first-episode schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorders, 40 of who had co-occurring substance abuse. Of the 79 participants in the OEOD group program, 70 (89%) remained in treatment for the maximum of 3 years. The over-all value of group treatment for this population is reviewed along with the small number of available publications on open-ended and open-door-type groups. PMID:22427713

Software Review: A program for testing capture-recapture data for closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Richards, Jon D.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture methods are widely used to estimate population parameters of free-ranging animals. Closed-population capture-recapture models, which assume there are no additions to or losses from the population over the period of study (i.e., the closure assumption), are preferred for population estimation over the open-population models, which do not assume closure, because heterogeneity in detection probabilities can be accounted for and this improves estimates. In this paper we introduce CloseTest, a new Microsoft® Windows-based program that computes the Otis et al. (1978) and Stanley and Burnham (1999) closure tests for capture-recapture data sets. Information on CloseTest features and where to obtain the program are provided.

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

PubMed Central

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation. PMID:18188404

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Coombs, J.A.; O'Donnell, M. J.; Dubreuil, T.L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (-45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tribuory populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropegenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

The Population Tracking Model: A Simple, Scalable Statistical Model for Neural Population Data

PubMed Central

O'Donnell, Cian; alves, J. Tiago Gonç; Whiteley, Nick; Portera-Cailliau, Carlos; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2017-01-01

Our understanding of neural population coding has been limited by a lack of analysis methods to characterize spiking data from large populations. The biggest challenge comes from the fact that the number of possible network activity patterns scales exponentially with the number of neurons recorded (∼2Neurons). Here we introduce a new statistical method for characterizing neural population activity that requires semi-independent fitting of only as many parameters as the square of the number of neurons, requiring drastically smaller data sets and minimal computation time. The model works by matching the population rate (the number of neurons synchronously active) and the probability that each individual neuron fires given the population rate. We found that this model can accurately fit synthetic data from up to 1000 neurons. We also found that the model could rapidly decode visual stimuli from neural population data from macaque primary visual cortex about 65 ms after stimulus onset. Finally, we used the model to estimate the entropy of neural population activity in developing mouse somatosensory cortex and, surprisingly, found that it first increases, and then decreases during development. This statistical model opens new options for interrogating neural population data and can bolster the use of modern large-scale in vivo Ca2+ and voltage imaging tools. PMID:27870612

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

PubMed

Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

2018-04-01

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian N-mixture model using multiple sources of data on abundance, movement and survival to estimate the population size of a mobile species that uses remote conservation areas. The model improves accuracy of inference relative to previous methods for estimating abundance of open populations. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Characterizing Human Stem Cell–derived Sensory Neurons at the Single-cell Level Reveals Their Ion Channel Expression and Utility in Pain Research

PubMed Central

Young, Gareth T; Gutteridge, Alex; Fox, Heather DE; Wilbrey, Anna L; Cao, Lishuang; Cho, Lily T; Brown, Adam R; Benn, Caroline L; Kammonen, Laura R; Friedman, Julia H; Bictash, Magda; Whiting, Paul; Bilsland, James G; Stevens, Edward B

2014-01-01

The generation of human sensory neurons by directed differentiation of pluripotent stem cells opens new opportunities for investigating the biology of pain. The inability to generate this cell type has meant that up until now their study has been reliant on the use of rodent models. Here, we use a combination of population and single-cell techniques to perform a detailed molecular, electrophysiological, and pharmacological phenotyping of sensory neurons derived from human embryonic stem cells. We describe the evolution of cell populations over 6 weeks of directed differentiation; a process that results in the generation of a largely homogeneous population of neurons that are both molecularly and functionally comparable to human sensory neurons derived from mature dorsal root ganglia. This work opens the prospect of using pluripotent stem-cell–derived sensory neurons to study human neuronal physiology and as in vitro models for drug discovery in pain and sensory disorders. PMID:24832007

Characterizing human stem cell-derived sensory neurons at the single-cell level reveals their ion channel expression and utility in pain research.

PubMed

Young, Gareth T; Gutteridge, Alex; Fox, Heather DE; Wilbrey, Anna L; Cao, Lishuang; Cho, Lily T; Brown, Adam R; Benn, Caroline L; Kammonen, Laura R; Friedman, Julia H; Bictash, Magda; Whiting, Paul; Bilsland, James G; Stevens, Edward B

2014-08-01

The generation of human sensory neurons by directed differentiation of pluripotent stem cells opens new opportunities for investigating the biology of pain. The inability to generate this cell type has meant that up until now their study has been reliant on the use of rodent models. Here, we use a combination of population and single-cell techniques to perform a detailed molecular, electrophysiological, and pharmacological phenotyping of sensory neurons derived from human embryonic stem cells. We describe the evolution of cell populations over 6 weeks of directed differentiation; a process that results in the generation of a largely homogeneous population of neurons that are both molecularly and functionally comparable to human sensory neurons derived from mature dorsal root ganglia. This work opens the prospect of using pluripotent stem-cell-derived sensory neurons to study human neuronal physiology and as in vitro models for drug discovery in pain and sensory disorders.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Recent progress in the theoretical modelling of Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marconi, Marcella

2017-09-01

Cepheids and RR Lyrae are among the most important primary distance indicators to calibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and excellent stellar population tracers, for Population I and Population II, respectively. In this paper I first mention some recent theoretical studies of Cepheids and RR Lyrae obtained with different theoretical tools. Then I focus the attention on new results based on nonlinear convective pulsation models in the context of some international projects, including VMC@VISTA and the Gaia collaboration. The open problems for both Cepheids and RR Lyrae are briefly discussed together with some challenging future application.

Automated population of an i2b2 clinical data warehouse from an openEHR-based data repository.

PubMed

Haarbrandt, Birger; Tute, Erik; Marschollek, Michael

2016-10-01

Detailed Clinical Model (DCM) approaches have recently seen wider adoption. More specifically, openEHR-based application systems are now used in production in several countries, serving diverse fields of application such as health information exchange, clinical registries and electronic medical record systems. However, approaches to efficiently provide openEHR data to researchers for secondary use have not yet been investigated or established. We developed an approach to automatically load openEHR data instances into the open source clinical data warehouse i2b2. We evaluated query capabilities and the performance of this approach in the context of the Hanover Medical School Translational Research Framework (HaMSTR), an openEHR-based data repository. Automated creation of i2b2 ontologies from archetypes and templates and the integration of openEHR data instances from 903 patients of a paediatric intensive care unit has been achieved. In total, it took an average of ∼2527s to create 2.311.624 facts from 141.917 XML documents. Using the imported data, we conducted sample queries to compare the performance with two openEHR systems and to investigate if this representation of data is feasible to support cohort identification and record level data extraction. We found the automated population of an i2b2 clinical data warehouse to be a feasible approach to make openEHR data instances available for secondary use. Such an approach can facilitate timely provision of clinical data to researchers. It complements analytics based on the Archetype Query Language by allowing querying on both, legacy clinical data sources and openEHR data instances at the same time and by providing an easy-to-use query interface. However, due to different levels of expressiveness in the data models, not all semantics could be preserved during the ETL process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic impact of primary open-angle glaucoma in Australia.

PubMed

Dirani, Mohamed; Crowston, Jonathan G; Taylor, Penny S; Moore, Peter T; Rogers, Sophie; Pezzullo, M Lynne; Keeffe, Jill E; Taylor, Hugh R

2011-01-01

Glaucoma is the World's leading cause of irreversible blindness, and poses serious public health and economic concerns.   Review. Published randomized trials and population-based studies since 1985. We report the economic impact of primary open-angle glaucoma and model the effect of changes in detection rates and management strategies. The cost-effectiveness of different interventions to prevent vision loss from primary open-angle glaucoma was measured in terms of financial cost (Australian dollars) and disability-adjusted life years. The prevalence of glaucoma in Australia is expected to increase from 208 000 in 2005 to 379 000 in 2025 because of the aging population. Health system costs over the same time period are estimated to increase from $AU355 million to $AU784 million. Total costs (health system costs, indirect costs and costs of loss of well-being) will increase from $AU1.9 billion to $AU4.3 billion in Australia. Primary open-angle glaucoma poses a significant economic burden, which will increase substantially by 2025. This dynamic model provides a valuable tool for ongoing policy formulation and determining the economic impact of interventions to better prevent visual impairment and blindness from glaucoma. © 2011 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2011 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

A starburst region at the tip of the Galactic bar around l=347-350

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marco, Amparo; Negueruela, Ignacio; González-Fernández, Carlos; Maíz-Apellániz, Jesús; Dorda, Ricardo; Clark, J. Simon

2015-08-01

In the past few years, several clusters of red supergiants have been discovered in a small region of the Milky Way, close to the base of the Scutum-Crux Arm and the tip of the Long Bar, between l=24º and l=29º. According to the number of observed red supergiants and using population synthesis models, they must contain very large stellar populations to harbour so many RSGs, some of them being candidates to the most massive young clusters in the Galaxy. These massive open clusters are part of a huge structure most likely containing hundreds of red supergiants. These results suggest that the Scutum complex represents a giant star formation region triggered by dynamical excitation by the Galactic bar, whose tip is believed to intersect the Scutum-Crux Arm close to this region. If this scenario is correct, a similar structure would be expected close to the opposite end of the Galactic long bar. We must find in an area between l=347º-350º (these sight lines include the expected location of the far tip of the Galactic bar in the model of González-Fernández et al. (2012)) likely candidates to very massive open clusters.We are carrying out a comprehensive optical and infrared photometric and spectroscopic study of this region containing the open clusters VdBH 222, Teutsch 85 and their surroundings. We have analyzed the population of VdBH 222 and we have found a large population of luminous supergiants and OB stars. The cluster lies behind ~7.5 mag of extinction and has a probable distance of ~ 10 kpc and an age of ~12 Ma. VdBH 222 is a young massive cluster with a likely mass > 20000 Msolar. Now, we are analyzing the population of the open cluster Teutsch 85 and surroundings, finding a numerous population of supergiants.In this work, we will discuss the possible role of the Galactic bar in triggering the formation of starburst clusters.

Holliday Junction Thermodynamics and Structure: Coarse-Grained Simulations and Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wujie; Nocka, Laura M.; Wiemann, Brianne Z.; Hinckley, Daniel M.; Mukerji, Ishita; Starr, Francis W.

2016-03-01

Holliday junctions play a central role in genetic recombination, DNA repair and other cellular processes. We combine simulations and experiments to evaluate the ability of the 3SPN.2 model, a coarse-grained representation designed to mimic B-DNA, to predict the properties of DNA Holliday junctions. The model reproduces many experimentally determined aspects of junction structure and stability, including the temperature dependence of melting on salt concentration, the bias between open and stacked conformations, the relative populations of conformers at high salt concentration, and the inter-duplex angle (IDA) between arms. We also obtain a close correspondence between the junction structure evaluated by all-atom and coarse-grained simulations. We predict that, for salt concentrations at physiological and higher levels, the populations of the stacked conformers are independent of salt concentration, and directly observe proposed tetrahedral intermediate sub-states implicated in conformational transitions. Our findings demonstrate that the 3SPN.2 model captures junction properties that are inaccessible to all-atom studies, opening the possibility to simulate complex aspects of junction behavior.

Linking Crystal Populations to Dynamic States: Crystal Dissolution and Growth During an Open-System Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergantz, G. W.; Schleicher, J.; Burgisser, A.

2016-12-01

The identification of shared characteristics in zoned crystals has motivated the definition of crystal populations. These populations reflect the simultaneous transport of crystals, heat and composition during open-system events. An obstacle to interpreting the emergence of a population is the absence of a way to correlate specific dynamic conditions with the characteristic attributes of a population. By combining a boundary-layer diffusion controlled model for crystal growth/dissolution with discrete-element magma dynamics simulations of crystal-bearing magmas, the creation of populations can be simulated. We have implemented a method that decomposes the chemical potential into the thermal and compositional contributions to crystal dissolution/growth. This allows for the explicit treatment of thermal inertia and thermal-compositional decoupling as fluid circulation stirs the system during an open-system event. We have identified three distinct dynamic states producing crystal populations. They are based on the volume fraction of crystals. In a mushy system, thermal and compositional states are tightly linked as the volume involved in the mixing is constrained by the so-called mixing bowl (Bergantz et al., 2015). The mixing bowl volume is a function of the visco-plastic response of the mush and the intrusion width, not by the progressive entrainment of the new intrusion as commonly assumed. Crystal dissolution is the dominate response to input of more primitive magma. At the other endmember, under very dilute conditions, thermal and compositional conditions can become decoupled, and the in-coming magma forms a double-diffusive low-Re jet. This can allow for both dissolution and growth as crystals circulate widely into an increasingly stratified system. A middle range of crystal concentration produces a very complex feedback, as sedimenting crystals form fingers and chains that interact with the incoming magma, break-up the entrainment with chaotic stirring and add a second length scale to the mixing. It simultaneously forms a small mixing bowl in the pile of crystals sedimenting at the base. This can produce very complex populations even in a simple open-system event. Bergantz et al., 2015, Open-system dynamics and mixing in magma mushes, Nature Geosci., DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2534

An open Markov chain scheme model for a credit consumption portfolio fed by ARIMA and SARMA processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esquível, Manuel L.; Fernandes, José Moniz; Guerreiro, Gracinda R.

2016-06-01

We introduce a schematic formalism for the time evolution of a random population entering some set of classes and such that each member of the population evolves among these classes according to a scheme based on a Markov chain model. We consider that the flow of incoming members is modeled by a time series and we detail the time series structure of the elements in each of the classes. We present a practical application to data from a credit portfolio of a Cape Verdian bank; after modeling the entering population in two different ways - namely as an ARIMA process and as a deterministic sigmoid type trend plus a SARMA process for the residues - we simulate the behavior of the population and compare the results. We get that the second method is more accurate in describing the behavior of the populations when compared to the observed values in a direct simulation of the Markov chain.

Evaluation of trap capture in a geographically closed population of brown treesnakes on Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tyrrell, C.L.; Christy, M.T.; Rodda, G.H.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Ellingson, A.R.; Savidge, J.A.; Dean-Bradley, K.; Bischof, R.

2009-01-01

1. Open population mark-recapture analysis of unbounded populations accommodates some types of closure violations (e.g. emigration, immigration). In contrast, closed population analysis of such populations readily allows estimation of capture heterogeneity and behavioural response, but requires crucial assumptions about closure (e.g. no permanent emigration) that are suspect and rarely tested empirically. 2. In 2003, we erected a double-sided barrier to prevent movement of snakes in or out of a 5-ha semi-forested study site in northern Guam. This geographically closed population of >100 snakes was monitored using a series of transects for visual searches and a 13 ?? 13 trapping array, with the aim of marking all snakes within the site. Forty-five marked snakes were also supplemented into the resident population to quantify the efficacy of our sampling methods. We used the program mark to analyse trap captures (101 occasions), referenced to census data from visual surveys, and quantified heterogeneity, behavioural response, and size bias in trappability. Analytical inclusion of untrapped individuals greatly improved precision in the estimation of some covariate effects. 3. A novel discovery was that trap captures for individual snakes consisted of asynchronous bouts of high capture probability lasting about 7 days (ephemeral behavioural effect). There was modest behavioural response (trap happiness) and significant latent (unexplained) heterogeneity, with small influences on capture success of date, gender, residency status (translocated or not), and body condition. 4. Trapping was shown to be an effective tool for eradicating large brown treesnakes Boiga irregularis (>900 mm snout-vent length, SVL). 5. Synthesis and applications. Mark-recapture modelling is commonly used by ecological managers to estimate populations. However, existing models involve making assumptions about either closure violations or response to capture. Physical closure of our population on a landscape scale allowed us to determine the relative importance of covariates influencing capture probability (body size, trappability periods, and latent heterogeneity). This information was used to develop models in which different segments of the population could be assigned different probabilities of capture, and suggests that modelling of open populations should incorporate easily measured, but potentially overlooked, parameters such as body size or condition. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Optimization models for degrouping population data.

PubMed

Bermúdez, Silvia; Blanquero, Rafael

2016-07-01

In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon.

Determining the Ages and Distances of 4 Open Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawczynec, Erica A.; James D. Armstrong, Joe M. Ritter, Jeff Kuhn

2018-01-01

The study of nearby young open clusters can give insight into star formation and potentially the local rate of metal enrichment. Presented is a BVRI photometric analysis of 4 open clusters; NGC 2509, NGC 2483, NGC 2482, and NGC 6705, in order to reevaluate previously published ages and distances using modern CCD photometry, and newer stellar models. Observations were obtained from the Cerro Tololo node of the Las Cumbres Observatory 1.0 meter network. Color magnitude diagrams were compared to modeled isochrones and the updated ages and distances determined. An interesting stellar association was found in the color magnitude diagram of NGC 6705. The structure is suggestive of two epochs of stellar formation. Members of this structure were evaluated using the Gaia Archive in order to explore the possibility of a heterogeneous population. The status of NGC 2483 as an open cluster has been debated; however, it has been noted that there is a high concentration of Be stars found in the region. It is concluded that NGC 2483 is an open cluster.

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

PubMed Central

Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

2010-01-01

An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

Biofuel consumption, biodiversity, and the environmental Kuznets curve: trivariate analysis in a panel of biofuel consuming countries.

PubMed

Zaman, Khalid

2017-11-01

This study examined the relationship between biofuel consumption, forest biodiversity, and a set of national scale indicators of per capita income, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, trade openness, and population density with a panel data of 12 biofuels consuming countries for a period of 2000 to 2013. The study used Global Environmental Facility (GEF) biodiversity benefits index and forest biodiversity index in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. The results confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between GEF biodiversity index and per capita income, while there is flat/no relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and between forest biodiversity and economic growth models. FDI inflows and trade openness both reduce carbon emissions while population density and biofuel consumption increase carbon emissions and decrease GEF biodiversity index. Trade openness supports to increases GEF biodiversity index while it decreases forest biodiversity index and biofuel consumption in a region.

Application of crowd-sourced data to multi-scale evolutionary exposure and vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Seismic exposure, defined as the assets (population, buildings, infrastructure) exposed to earthquake hazard and susceptible to damage, is a critical -but often neglected- component of seismic risk assessment. This partly stems from the burden associated with the compilation of a useful and reliable model over wide spatial areas. While detailed engineering data have still to be collected in order to constrain exposure and vulnerability models, the availability of increasingly large crowd-sourced datasets (e. g. OpenStreetMap) opens up the exciting possibility to generate incrementally evolving models. Integrating crowd-sourced and authoritative data using statistical learning methodologies can reduce models uncertainties and also provide additional drive and motivation to volunteered geoinformation collection. A case study in Central Asia will be presented and discussed.

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporate inter-individual variability, including variability across demographic subgroups, into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of...

Predicting the distribution and ecological niche of unexploited snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) populations in Alaskan waters: a first open-access ensemble model.

PubMed

Hardy, Sarah M; Lindgren, Michael; Konakanchi, Hanumantharao; Huettmann, Falk

2011-10-01

Populations of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) are widely distributed on high-latitude continental shelves of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and represent a valuable resource in both the United States and Canada. In US waters, snow crabs are found throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas surrounding Alaska, north of the Aleutian Islands, yet commercial harvest currently focuses on the more southerly population in the Bering Sea. Population dynamics are well-monitored in exploited areas, but few data exist for populations further north where climate trends in the Arctic appear to be affecting species' distributions and community structure on multiple trophic levels. Moreover, increased shipping traffic, as well as fisheries and petroleum resource development, may add additional pressures in northern portions of the range as seasonal ice cover continues to decline. In the face of these pressures, we examined the ecological niche and population distribution of snow crabs in Alaskan waters using a GIS-based spatial modeling approach. We present the first quantitative open-access model predictions of snow-crab distribution, abundance, and biomass in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Multi-variate analysis of environmental drivers of species' distribution and community structure commonly rely on multiple linear regression methods. The spatial modeling approach employed here improves upon linear regression methods in allowing for exploration of nonlinear relationships and interactions between variables. Three machine-learning algorithms were used to evaluate relationships between snow-crab distribution and environmental parameters, including TreeNet, Random Forests, and MARS. An ensemble model was then generated by combining output from these three models to generate consensus predictions for presence-absence, abundance, and biomass of snow crabs. Each algorithm identified a suite of variables most important in predicting snow-crab distribution, including nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations in overlying waters, temperature, salinity, and annual sea-ice cover; this information may be used to develop and test hypotheses regarding the ecology of this species. This is the first such quantitative model for snow crabs, and all GIS-data layers compiled for this project are freely available from the authors, upon request, for public use and improvement.

Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

2015-12-01

In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation framework to assist decision makers at all levels - local, state, regional, and federal. Using Cleveland, Tennessee as an example, in this presentation, we illustrate how emerging cities could easily assess future land use scenario driven impacts on energy and environment utilizing such a capability.

Utilization of data estimation via existing models, within a tiered data quality system, for populating species sensitivity distributions

EPA Science Inventory

The acquisition toxicity test data of sufficient quality from open literature to fulfill taxonomic diversity requirements can be a limiting factor in the creation of new 304(a) Aquatic Life Criteria. The use of existing models (WebICE and ACE) that estimate acute and chronic eff...

Open source electronic health records and chronic disease management.

PubMed

Goldwater, Jason C; Kwon, Nancy J; Nathanson, Ashley; Muckle, Alison E; Brown, Alexa; Cornejo, Kerri

2014-02-01

To study and report on the use of open source electronic health records (EHR) to assist with chronic care management within safety net medical settings, such as community health centers (CHC). The study was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago from April to September 2010. The NORC team undertook a comprehensive environmental scan, including a literature review, a dozen key informant interviews using a semistructured protocol, and a series of site visits to CHC that currently use an open source EHR. Two of the sites chosen by NORC were actively using an open source EHR to assist in the redesign of their care delivery system to support more effective chronic disease management. This included incorporating the chronic care model into an CHC and using the EHR to help facilitate its elements, such as care teams for patients, in addition to maintaining health records on indigent populations, such as tuberculosis status on homeless patients. The ability to modify the open-source EHR to adapt to the CHC environment and leverage the ecosystem of providers and users to assist in this process provided significant advantages in chronic care management. Improvements in diabetes management, controlled hypertension and increases in tuberculosis vaccinations were assisted through the use of these open source systems. The flexibility and adaptability of open source EHR demonstrated its utility and viability in the provision of necessary and needed chronic disease care among populations served by CHC.

Cardiac image modelling: Breadth and depth in heart disease.

PubMed

Suinesiaputra, Avan; McCulloch, Andrew D; Nash, Martyn P; Pontre, Beau; Young, Alistair A

2016-10-01

With the advent of large-scale imaging studies and big health data, and the corresponding growth in analytics, machine learning and computational image analysis methods, there are now exciting opportunities for deepening our understanding of the mechanisms and characteristics of heart disease. Two emerging fields are computational analysis of cardiac remodelling (shape and motion changes due to disease) and computational analysis of physiology and mechanics to estimate biophysical properties from non-invasive imaging. Many large cohort studies now underway around the world have been specifically designed based on non-invasive imaging technologies in order to gain new information about the development of heart disease from asymptomatic to clinical manifestations. These give an unprecedented breadth to the quantification of population variation and disease development. Also, for the individual patient, it is now possible to determine biophysical properties of myocardial tissue in health and disease by interpreting detailed imaging data using computational modelling. For these population and patient-specific computational modelling methods to develop further, we need open benchmarks for algorithm comparison and validation, open sharing of data and algorithms, and demonstration of clinical efficacy in patient management and care. The combination of population and patient-specific modelling will give new insights into the mechanisms of cardiac disease, in particular the development of heart failure, congenital heart disease, myocardial infarction, contractile dysfunction and diastolic dysfunction. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; ...

2016-01-01

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.« less

Pleistocene climatic oscillations in Neotropical open areas: Refuge isolation in the rodent Oxymycterus nasutus endemic to grasslands

PubMed Central

Peçanha, Willian T.; Althoff, Sergio L.; Galiano, Daniel; Quintela, Fernando M.; Maestri, Renan; Freitas, Thales R. O.

2017-01-01

Pleistocene climatic oscillations favoured the expansion of grassland ecosystems and open vegetation landscapes throughout the Neotropics, and influenced the evolutionary history of species adapted to such environments. In this study, we sampled populations of the rodent Oxymycterus nasutus endemic to open areas in the Pampas and Atlantic Forest biomes to assess the tempo and mode of population divergence using an integrative approach, including coalescence theory, ecological niche models, and morphometry. Our results indicated that these O. nasutus populations exhibited high levels of genetic structure. Six major mtDNA clades were found, structuring these biomes into distinct groups. Estimates of their divergence times was indicated to be 0.571 myr. The high degree of genetic structure is reflected in the analyses of geometric morphometric; skull differences between lineages in the two ecoregions were detected. During the last glacial maximum, there was a strong increase in suitable abiotic conditions for O. nasutus. Distinct molecular markers revealed a population expansion over time, with a possible demographic retraction during the post-glacial period. Considering that all clades coalesce with the last interglacial maximum, our results indicated that reduction in suitable conditions during this period may have resulted in a possible vicariance associated with refuge isolation. PMID:29176839

Computational and experimental single cell biology techniques for the definition of cell type heterogeneity, interplay and intracellular dynamics.

PubMed

de Vargas Roditi, Laura; Claassen, Manfred

2015-08-01

Novel technological developments enable single cell population profiling with respect to their spatial and molecular setup. These include single cell sequencing, flow cytometry and multiparametric imaging approaches and open unprecedented possibilities to learn about the heterogeneity, dynamics and interplay of the different cell types which constitute tissues and multicellular organisms. Statistical and dynamic systems theory approaches have been applied to quantitatively describe a variety of cellular processes, such as transcription and cell signaling. Machine learning approaches have been developed to define cell types, their mutual relationships, and differentiation hierarchies shaping heterogeneous cell populations, yielding insights into topics such as, for example, immune cell differentiation and tumor cell type composition. This combination of experimental and computational advances has opened perspectives towards learning predictive multi-scale models of heterogeneous cell populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Workplace stress and its impact on the 16-year risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in an open female population aged 25-64 years in Russia/Siberia (WHO MONICA-psychosocial program)].

PubMed

Gafarov, V V; Panov, D O; Gromova, E A; Gagulin, I V; Gafarova, A V

2015-01-01

To determine the impact of workplace stress on the hazard ratio (HR) of myocardial infarction (M) and stroke in an open female population aged 25-64 years in Russia/Siberia (Novosibirsk) for 16 years. A random representative sample of 25-64-year-old women (n=870) residing in a Novosibirsk district was surveyed within the framework of the WHO program. Workplace stress was investigated using the Karasek scale; an attitude towards work and health prophylactic examinations was studied applying the Health Awareness and Attitude questionnaire of the WHO program. For 16 years (1994 to 2010), a cohort of all new cases of MI and stroke was examined employing the WHO program and all possible medical records. The Cox regression model was used to determine HR for MI and stroke in the open female population aged 25-64 years for 16 years. The prevalence of high-level stress in the open female population aged 25-64 years was 31.6%. The high level of job stress was associated with a high responsibility, impossibility to have a rest at the end of a working day, frequent professional dissatisfaction, and a reduced work capacity. During 16 years, the women having high-level job stress showed a 3.22- and 1.96-fold increases in the HR of MI (p<0.05) and stroke (p<0.05), respectively. The incidence of MI and stroke was higher in married women expressing job stress as managers or manual laborers and having high and low educational attainment. The prevalence of high-level workplace stress was substantial in the open population of 25-64-year-old women in Russia/Siberia (Novosibirsk). The stress-related HR of Ml and stroke was 3-2 times higher than in those without high-level stress. The HR of MI and stroke is affected by a social gradient.

Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

2004-01-01

Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

2010-01-01

We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

PubMed

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

2010-11-01

We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Geothermal Case Studies

DOE Data Explorer

Young, Katherine

2014-09-30

database.) In fiscal year 2015, NREL is working with universities to populate additional case studies on OpenEI. The goal is to provide a large enough dataset to start conducting analyses of exploration programs to identify correlations between successful exploration plans for areas with similar geologic occurrence models.

Childhood asthma and indoor woodsmoke from cooking in Guatemala.

PubMed

Schei, Morten A; Hessen, Jens O; Smith, Kirk R; Bruce, Nigel; McCracken, John; Lopez, Victorina

2004-01-01

We estimated the prevalence and severity of asthma, and the association with cooking on open wood fires, as preparation for a large-scale randomized field trial on effects of indoor air pollution and child health. This is one of the first systematic studies of asthma and indoor wood-smoke pollution and to our knowledge the first asthma study in a purely indigeneous population in Latin America. The mothers of 1058 children aged 4-6 years were interviewed, using the standardized ISAAC (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) procedures and questionnaire. The study population is a Mam-speaking (Maya), indigenous group living at relatively high altitude (2000 m) in Western Guatemalan Highlands. We found that asthma prevalence is low among indigenous children in Guatemala, compared to other populations in Latin America. Only 3.3% of the children reported wheezing symptoms in the last 12 months, and 72% wheezing symptoms ever. The majority of the current wheezers had at least one of the criteria for severe asthma. The prevalence of all the symptoms of asthma was higher in children from households that used open fires compared to improved stoves with chimneys. In a logistic regression model, use of open fire for cooking was a significant risk factor for a number of asthma symptoms, with odds ratios varying from 2.0 to 3.5. Among the different cooking technologies (1-improved stove with chimney, 2-mixture of gas and open fire, 3-open fire) trends of higher prevalence with more pollution was found for some of the symptoms. Hence use of open fire for cooking, may be an important risk factor for asthma symptoms and severity.

A closure test for time-specific capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

1999-01-01

The assumption of demographic closure in the analysis of capture-recapture data under closed-population models is of fundamental importance. Yet, little progress has been made in the development of omnibus tests of the closure assumption. We present a closure test for time-specific data that, in principle, tests the null hypothesis of closed-population model M(t) against the open-population Jolly-Seber model as a specific alternative. This test is chi-square, and can be decomposed into informative components that can be interpreted to determine the nature of closure violations. The test is most sensitive to permanent emigration and least sensitive to temporary emigration, and is of intermediate sensitivity to permanent or temporary immigration. This test is a versatile tool for testing the assumption of demographic closure in the analysis of capture-recapture data.

Modelling the Composition of Outgassing Bubbles at Basaltic Open Vent Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, M.; Clements, N.; Houghton, B. F.; Oppenheimer, C.; Jones, R. L.; Burton, M. R.

2015-12-01

Basaltic open vent volcanoes exhibit a wide range in eruption styles, from passive outgassing to Strombolian and Hawaiian explosive activity. Transitions between these styles are linked to contrasting two-phase (melt and gas) flow regimes in the conduit system. A wealth of data now exists characterising the fluxes and compositions of gases emitted from these volcanoes, alongside detailed observations of patterns of outgassing at the magma free surfaces. Complex variations in gas composition are apparent from high temporal resolution measurement techniques such as open path spectroscopy. This variability with time is likely a function of individual bubbles' histories of growth during ascent, with variable degrees of kinetic inhibition. Our previous studies at Kilauea and Stromboli have, for example, linked CO2-rich gases with the bursting of bubbles that last equilibrated at some depth beneath the surface. However, very few studies have attempted to reconcile such observations with quantitative models of diffusion-limited bubble growth in magmas prior to eruption. We present here an analytical model that simulates the growth of populations of bubbles by addition of volatile mass during decompression, with growth limited by diffusion. The model simulates a range of behaviors between the end members of separated two-phase flow and homogeneous bubbly flow in the conduit, tied to thermodynamic models of solubility and partitioning of volatile species (carbon, water, sulfur). We explore the effects of the form of bubble populations at depth, melt viscosity, total volatile content, magma decompression rate and other intrinsic parameters on expected gas compositions at the surface and consider implications for transitions between eruption styles. We compare the the model to data suites from Stromboli and Kilauea.

Coalescent: an open-source and scalable framework for exact calculations in coalescent theory

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Currently, there is no open-source, cross-platform and scalable framework for coalescent analysis in population genetics. There is no scalable GUI based user application either. Such a framework and application would not only drive the creation of more complex and realistic models but also make them truly accessible. Results As a first attempt, we built a framework and user application for the domain of exact calculations in coalescent analysis. The framework provides an API with the concepts of model, data, statistic, phylogeny, gene tree and recursion. Infinite-alleles and infinite-sites models are considered. It defines pluggable computations such as counting and listing all the ancestral configurations and genealogies and computing the exact probability of data. It can visualize a gene tree, trace and visualize the internals of the recursion algorithm for further improvement and attach dynamically a number of output processors. The user application defines jobs in a plug-in like manner so that they can be activated, deactivated, installed or uninstalled on demand. Multiple jobs can be run and their inputs edited. Job inputs are persisted across restarts and running jobs can be cancelled where applicable. Conclusions Coalescent theory plays an increasingly important role in analysing molecular population genetic data. Models involved are mathematically difficult and computationally challenging. An open-source, scalable framework that lets users immediately take advantage of the progress made by others will enable exploration of yet more difficult and realistic models. As models become more complex and mathematically less tractable, the need for an integrated computational approach is obvious. Object oriented designs, though has upfront costs, are practical now and can provide such an integrated approach. PMID:23033878

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Open source electronic health records and chronic disease management

PubMed Central

Goldwater, Jason C; Kwon, Nancy J; Nathanson, Ashley; Muckle, Alison E; Brown, Alexa; Cornejo, Kerri

2014-01-01

Objective To study and report on the use of open source electronic health records (EHR) to assist with chronic care management within safety net medical settings, such as community health centers (CHC). Methods and Materials The study was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago from April to September 2010. The NORC team undertook a comprehensive environmental scan, including a literature review, a dozen key informant interviews using a semistructured protocol, and a series of site visits to CHC that currently use an open source EHR. Results Two of the sites chosen by NORC were actively using an open source EHR to assist in the redesign of their care delivery system to support more effective chronic disease management. This included incorporating the chronic care model into an CHC and using the EHR to help facilitate its elements, such as care teams for patients, in addition to maintaining health records on indigent populations, such as tuberculosis status on homeless patients. Discussion The ability to modify the open-source EHR to adapt to the CHC environment and leverage the ecosystem of providers and users to assist in this process provided significant advantages in chronic care management. Improvements in diabetes management, controlled hypertension and increases in tuberculosis vaccinations were assisted through the use of these open source systems. Conclusions The flexibility and adaptability of open source EHR demonstrated its utility and viability in the provision of necessary and needed chronic disease care among populations served by CHC. PMID:23813566

A generic open-source software framework supporting scenario simulations in bioterrorist crises.

PubMed

Falenski, Alexander; Filter, Matthias; Thöns, Christian; Weiser, Armin A; Wigger, Jan-Frederik; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Edlund, Stefan; Hu, Kun; Kaufman, James H; Appel, Bernd; Käsbohrer, Annemarie

2013-09-01

Since the 2001 anthrax attack in the United States, awareness of threats originating from bioterrorism has grown. This led internationally to increased research efforts to improve knowledge of and approaches to protecting human and animal populations against the threat from such attacks. A collaborative effort in this context is the extension of the open-source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) simulation and modeling software for agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios. STEM, originally designed to enable community-driven public health disease models and simulations, was extended with new features that enable integration of proprietary data as well as visualization of agent spread along supply and production chains. STEM now provides a fully developed open-source software infrastructure supporting critical modeling tasks such as ad hoc model generation, parameter estimation, simulation of scenario evolution, estimation of effects of mitigation or management measures, and documentation. This open-source software resource can be used free of charge. Additionally, STEM provides critical features like built-in worldwide data on administrative boundaries, transportation networks, or environmental conditions (eg, rainfall, temperature, elevation, vegetation). Users can easily combine their own confidential data with built-in public data to create customized models of desired resolution. STEM also supports collaborative and joint efforts in crisis situations by extended import and export functionalities. In this article we demonstrate specifically those new software features implemented to accomplish STEM application in agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios.

The environmental zero-point problem in evolutionary reaction norm modeling.

PubMed

Ergon, Rolf

2018-04-01

There is a potential problem in present quantitative genetics evolutionary modeling based on reaction norms. Such models are state-space models, where the multivariate breeder's equation in some form is used as the state equation that propagates the population state forward in time. These models use the implicit assumption of a constant reference environment, in many cases set to zero. This zero-point is often the environment a population is adapted to, that is, where the expected geometric mean fitness is maximized. Such environmental reference values follow from the state of the population system, and they are thus population properties. The environment the population is adapted to, is, in other words, an internal population property, independent of the external environment. It is only when the external environment coincides with the internal reference environment, or vice versa, that the population is adapted to the current environment. This is formally a result of state-space modeling theory, which is an important theoretical basis for evolutionary modeling. The potential zero-point problem is present in all types of reaction norm models, parametrized as well as function-valued, and the problem does not disappear when the reference environment is set to zero. As the environmental reference values are population characteristics, they ought to be modeled as such. Whether such characteristics are evolvable is an open question, but considering the complexity of evolutionary processes, such evolvability cannot be excluded without good arguments. As a straightforward solution, I propose to model the reference values as evolvable mean traits in their own right, in addition to other reaction norm traits. However, solutions based on an evolvable G matrix are also possible.

Valuing the chances of survival of two distinct Eurasian lynx populations in Poland - do people want to keep the doors open?

PubMed

Bartczak, Anna; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

2013-11-15

This study investigates individuals' preferences toward protection programs aimed at increasing the chances of survival of the two distinct Eurasian lynx populations in Poland. Those two groups, the Lowland and the Carpathian population, are exposed to different risks of extinction as they have different numbers, different-sized areas of occupation and different migration possibilities. Using a discrete choice experiment we examine the influence of the initial degree of endangerment on the allocation of respondents' funds. The results show that people prefer to invest in the conservation of the lynx population, which has initially lower chances of survival. The main driver of respondents' choices seems to be loss aversion rather than the urge to invest in an option with an expected higher outcome. This observation can be interpreted as people trying to keep all the options - doors - open by devoting more funds to the more vulnerable population than to the more stable one. Employing a scale-extended latent class model allowed us to detect segments among individuals showing different types of response behavior, including a form of serial non-participation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-use, movement and dispersal of sub-adult cougars in a geographically isolated population.

PubMed

Morrison, Carl D; Boyce, Mark S; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-01-01

Cougar (Puma concolor) observations have increased in Midwest North America, with breeding populations re-establishing in several regions east of their contemporary range. The Cypress Hills Uplands, located in southwest Saskatchewan and southeast Alberta, was recently re-colonized by cougars and now supports the easternmost confirmed breeding population of cougars in Canada. A number of factors contribute to this cougar range expansion, but it is dispersal that provides the mechanism for re-colonization of historic range. We used GPS-collar data to examine space-use and movement behavior of sub-adult cougars, the age class associated with dispersal, in the Cypress Hills. Conditional logistic regression and a two-stage modeling approach were used to estimate resource selection functions (RSF) of sub-adult cougars during two distinct ranging behaviors: transient movements (i.e., dispersal and exploratory forays) and localizing movements (i.e., temporary home ranges). Linear regression was used to model movement rates, measured as the distance between consecutive 3-h GPS-relocations, of sub-adult cougars relative to different habitats, times of day and between transient and localizing behavior. All individual sub-adult cougars displayed bouts of transient and localizing behavior. All male cougars dispersed from their natal ranges and travelled considerably farther distances than female cougars. One male dispersed over 750 km eastward through the agricultural belt of northern Montana and southern Saskatchewan. Males occupied temporary home ranges in more open habitats on the fringes of the insular Cypress Hills, while females appeared to be recruited into the adult population, occupying treed habitat that provided more suitable cover. During both ranging behaviors, sub-adult cougars selected for rugged terrain and proximity to hydrological features (likely supporting riparian habitats) and avoided open cover types. Differences in habitat selection between ranging behaviors were observed in response to open water, roads and elevation. Although certain habitat characteristics were preferred, transient and localizing cougars used fast-paced nocturnal movements and shortened daytime movements when traversing open habitats to effectively limit their residency and exposure in less-suitable landscapes. Additionally, cougars moved greater distances at night during transient behavior compared to localizing behavior indicating cougars used cover of darkness to traverse novel terrain. In doing so, sub-adult cougars can successfully disperse several hundred kilometres across a matrix of open habitat in search of resources and mates.

Recombination of open-f-shell tungsten ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krantz, C.; Badnell, N. R.; Müller, A.; Schippers, S.; Wolf, A.

2017-03-01

We review experimental and theoretical efforts aimed at a detailed understanding of the recombination of electrons with highly charged tungsten ions characterised by an open 4f sub-shell. Highly charged tungsten occurs as a plasma contaminant in ITER-like tokamak experiments, where it acts as an unwanted cooling agent. Modelling of the charge state populations in a plasma requires reliable thermal rate coefficients for charge-changing electron collisions. The electron recombination of medium-charged tungsten species with open 4f sub-shells is especially challenging to compute reliably. Storage-ring experiments have been conducted that yielded recombination rate coefficients at high energy resolution and well-understood systematics. Significant deviations compared to simplified, but prevalent, computational models have been found. A new class of ab initio numerical calculations has been developed that provides reliable predictions of the total plasma recombination rate coefficients for these ions.

Social determinants of health inequalities: towards a theoretical perspective using systems science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2015-08-25

A systems approach offers a novel conceptualization to natural and social systems. In recent years, this has led to perceiving population health outcomes as an emergent property of a dynamic and open, complex adaptive system. The current paper explores these themes further and applies the principles of systems approach and complexity science (i.e. systems science) to conceptualize social determinants of health inequalities. The conceptualization can be done in two steps: viewing health inequalities from a systems approach and extending it to include complexity science. Systems approach views health inequalities as patterns within the larger rubric of other facets of the human condition, such as educational outcomes and economic development. This anlysis requires more sophisticated models such as systems dynamic models. An extension of the approach is to view systems as complex adaptive systems, i.e. systems that are 'open' and adapt to the environment. They consist of dynamic adapting subsystems that exhibit non-linear interactions, while being 'open' to a similarly dynamic environment of interconnected systems. They exhibit emergent properties that cannot be estimated with precision by using the known interactions among its components (such as economic development, political freedom, health system, culture etc.). Different combinations of the same bundle of factors or determinants give rise to similar patterns or outcomes (i.e. property of convergence), and minor variations in the initial condition could give rise to widely divergent outcomes. Novel approaches using computer simulation models (e.g. agent-based models) would shed light on possible mechanisms as to how factors or determinants interact and lead to emergent patterns of health inequalities of populations.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

New Technologies in Academic Publishing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waller, Robert; Lefrere, Paul

1981-01-01

The Open University has become one of the biggest publishing houses in Great Britain. Its course units are produced in a system closely modeled on that of commercial publishers. New technologies in publishing have important educational implications. They can produce up-to-date materials for high level, small population courses. (Author/MLW)

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Kendall, W L; Bjorkland, R

2001-12-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Bjorkland, R.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects

PubMed Central

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity. PMID:27010993

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

PubMed

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.

2008-01-01

Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.

Urban Climate Resilience - Connecting climate models with decision support cyberinfrastructure using open standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermudez, L. E.; Percivall, G.; Idol, T. A.

2015-12-01

Experts in climate modeling, remote sensing of the Earth, and cyber infrastructure must work together in order to make climate predictions available to decision makers. Such experts and decision makers worked together in the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) Testbed 11 to address a scenario of population displacement by coastal inundation due to the predicted sea level rise. In a Policy Fact Sheet "Harnessing Climate Data to Boost Ecosystem & Water Resilience", issued by White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) in December 2014, OGC committed to increase access to climate change information using open standards. In July 2015, the OGC Testbed 11 Urban Climate Resilience activity delivered on that commitment with open standards based support for climate-change preparedness. Using open standards such as the OGC Web Coverage Service and Web Processing Service and the NetCDF and GMLJP2 encoding standards, Testbed 11 deployed an interoperable high-resolution flood model to bring climate model outputs together with global change assessment models and other remote sensing data for decision support. Methods to confirm model predictions and to allow "what-if-scenarios" included in-situ sensor webs and crowdsourcing. A scenario was in two locations: San Francisco Bay Area and Mozambique. The scenarios demonstrated interoperation and capabilities of open geospatial specifications in supporting data services and processing services. The resultant High Resolution Flood Information System addressed access and control of simulation models and high-resolution data in an open, worldwide, collaborative Web environment. The scenarios examined the feasibility and capability of existing OGC geospatial Web service specifications in supporting the on-demand, dynamic serving of flood information from models with forecasting capacity. Results of this testbed included identification of standards and best practices that help researchers and cities deal with climate-related issues. Results of the testbeds will now be deployed in pilot applications. The testbed also identified areas of additional development needed to help identify scientific investments and cyberinfrastructure approaches needed to improve the application of climate science research results to urban climate resilence.

Analysis of aeromedical retrieval coverage using elliptical isochrones: An evaluation of helicopter fleet size configurations in Scotland.

PubMed

Dodds, Naomi; Emerson, Philip; Phillips, Stephanie; Green, David R; Jansen, Jan O

2017-03-01

Trauma systems in remote and rural regions often rely on helicopter emergency medical services to facilitate access to definitive care. The siting of such resources is key, but often relies on simplistic modeling of coverage, using circular isochrones. Scotland is in the process of implementing a national trauma network, and there have been calls for an expansion of aeromedical retrieval capacity. The aim of this study was to analyze population and area coverage of the current retrieval service configuration, with three aircraft, and a configuration with an additional helicopter, in the North East of Scotland, using a novel methodology. Both overall coverage and coverage by physician-staffed aircraft, with enhanced clinical capability, were analyzed. This was a geographical analysis based on calculation of elliptical isochrones, which consider the "open-jaw" configuration of many retrieval flights. Helicopters are not always based at hospitals. We modeled coverage based on different outbound and inbound flights. Areally referenced population data were obtained from the Scottish Government. The current helicopter network configuration provides 94.2% population coverage and 59.0% area coverage. The addition of a fourth helicopter would marginally increase population coverage to 94.4% and area coverage to 59.1%. However, when considering only physician-manned aircraft, the current configuration provides only 71.7% population coverage and 29.4% area coverage, which would be increased to 91.1% and 51.2%, respectively, with a second aircraft. Scotland's current helicopter network configuration provides good population coverage for retrievals to major trauma centers, which would only be increased minimally by the addition of a fourth aircraft in the North East. The coverage provided by the single physician-staffed aircraft is more limited, however, and would be increased considerably by a second physician-staffed aircraft in the North East. Elliptical isochrones provide a useful means of modeling "open-jaw" retrieval missions and provide a more realistic estimate of coverage. Epidemiological study, level IV; therapeutic study, level IV.

A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle

PubMed Central

Pilditch, Toby D.

2018-01-01

In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people’s beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations. PMID:29634722

A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle.

PubMed

Madsen, Jens Koed; Pilditch, Toby D

2018-01-01

In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people's beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations.

Genetic wealth, population health: Major histocompatibility complex variation in captive and wild ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta).

PubMed

Grogan, Kathleen E; Sauther, Michelle L; Cuozzo, Frank P; Drea, Christine M

2017-10-01

Across species, diversity at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is critical to individual disease resistance and, hence, to population health; however, MHC diversity can be reduced in small, fragmented, or isolated populations. Given the need for comparative studies of functional genetic diversity, we investigated whether MHC diversity differs between populations which are open, that is experiencing gene flow, versus populations which are closed, that is isolated from other populations. Using the endangered ring-tailed lemur ( Lemur catta ) as a model, we compared two populations under long-term study: a relatively "open," wild population ( n  = 180) derived from Bezà Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar (2003-2013) and a "closed," captive population ( n  = 121) derived from the Duke Lemur Center (DLC, 1980-2013) and from the Indianapolis and Cincinnati Zoos (2012). For all animals, we assessed MHC-DRB diversity and, across populations, we compared the number of unique MHC-DRB alleles and their distributions. Wild individuals possessed more MHC-DRB alleles than did captive individuals, and overall, the wild population had more unique MHC-DRB alleles that were more evenly distributed than did the captive population. Despite management efforts to maintain or increase genetic diversity in the DLC population, MHC diversity remained static from 1980 to 2010. Since 2010, however, captive-breeding efforts resulted in the MHC diversity of offspring increasing to a level commensurate with that found in wild individuals. Therefore, loss of genetic diversity in lemurs, owing to small founder populations or reduced gene flow, can be mitigated by managed breeding efforts. Quantifying MHC diversity within individuals and between populations is the necessary first step to identifying potential improvements to captive management and conservation plans.

Overcoming the dichotomy between open and isolated populations using genomic data from a large European dataset

PubMed Central

Anagnostou, Paolo; Dominici, Valentina; Battaggia, Cinzia; Pagani, Luca; Vilar, Miguel; Wells, R. Spencer; Pettener, Davide; Sarno, Stefania; Boattini, Alessio; Francalacci, Paolo; Colonna, Vincenza; Vona, Giuseppe; Calò, Carla; Destro Bisol, Giovanni; Tofanelli, Sergio

2017-01-01

Human populations are often dichotomized into “isolated” and “open” categories using cultural and/or geographical barriers to gene flow as differential criteria. Although widespread, the use of these alternative categories could obscure further heterogeneity due to inter-population differences in effective size, growth rate, and timing or amount of gene flow. We compared intra and inter-population variation measures combining novel and literature data relative to 87,818 autosomal SNPs in 14 open populations and 10 geographic and/or linguistic European isolates. Patterns of intra-population diversity were found to vary considerably more among isolates, probably due to differential levels of drift and inbreeding. The relatively large effective size estimated for some population isolates challenges the generalized view that they originate from small founding groups. Principal component scores based on measures of intra-population variation of isolated and open populations were found to be distributed along a continuum, with an area of intersection between the two groups. Patterns of inter-population diversity were even closer, as we were able to detect some differences between population groups only for a few multidimensional scaling dimensions. Therefore, different lines of evidence suggest that dichotomizing human populations into open and isolated groups fails to capture the actual relations among their genomic features. PMID:28145502

COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography.

PubMed

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Archer, C Ruth; Bein, Christoph; de Buhr, Hendrik; Farack, Claudia; Gottschalk, Fränce; Hartmann, Alexander; Henning, Anne; Hoppe, Gabriel; Römer, Gesa; Ruoff, Tara; Sommer, Veronika; Wille, Julia; Voigt, Jakob; Zeh, Stefan; Vieregg, Dirk; Buckley, Yvonne M; Che-Castaldo, Judy; Hodgson, David; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Caswell, Hal; Vaupel, James W

2016-03-01

The open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open-data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world-wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples. We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open-data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and its integration with other online resources, we encourage animal ecologists to tackle global ecological and evolutionary questions with unprecedented sample size. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

2004-01-01

Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Accuracy of genomic selection models in a large population of open-pollinated families in white spruce

PubMed Central

Beaulieu, J; Doerksen, T; Clément, S; MacKay, J; Bousquet, J

2014-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is of interest in breeding because of its potential for predicting the genetic value of individuals and increasing genetic gains per unit of time. To date, very few studies have reported empirical results of GS potential in the context of large population sizes and long breeding cycles such as for boreal trees. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of marker-aided selection in an undomesticated white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) population of large effective size using a GS approach. A discovery population of 1694 trees representative of 214 open-pollinated families from 43 natural populations was phenotyped for 12 wood and growth traits and genotyped for 6385 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mined in 2660 gene sequences. GS models were built to predict estimated breeding values using all the available SNPs or SNP subsets of the largest absolute effects, and they were validated using various cross-validation schemes. The accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) varied from 0.327 to 0.435 when the training and the validation data sets shared half-sibs that were on average 90% of the accuracies achieved through traditionally estimated breeding values. The trend was also the same for validation across sites. As expected, the accuracy of GEBVs obtained after cross-validation with individuals of unknown relatedness was lower with about half of the accuracy achieved when half-sibs were present. We showed that with the marker densities used in the current study, predictions with low to moderate accuracy could be obtained within a large undomesticated population of related individuals, potentially resulting in larger gains per unit of time with GS than with the traditional approach. PMID:24781808

78 FR 26617 - National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-07

... of the data sources, data trends and population models that will be used in the upcoming Pacific... longspine thornyhead. The online NWFSC Pre-Assessment Workshop webinar is open to the public, although space...-Assessment Workshop webinar are to: (1) Present and describe data that may be included in the stock...

Internationalizing Social Work Education: Models, Methods and Meanings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrill, Martha C.; Frost, Caren J.

2011-01-01

International and intercultural learning requires flexibility, openness, and a willingness to adjust--on the part of the school as well as the student. Yet in social work, as in other professions requiring licensure and preparing professionals to work with vulnerable populations, flexibility is not simply a matter of convincing a department head…

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grand, James B.; Kleiner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Patterns of Genetic Diversity and Co-Existence in Open Ocean Diatoms: the Effects of Water Mass Structure, Selection and Sex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynearson, T. A.; Chen, G.

2016-02-01

The open ocean North Atlantic spring bloom influences regional ecology and global biogeochemistry. Diatoms dominate the peak of the bloom and significantly impact productivity and export of organic carbon from the bloom. Despite their key role in a yearly event with global impacts, the genetic diversity and population structure of diatoms that comprise this open ocean bloom are unknown. Here we investigated the population genetics of the diatom Thalassiosira gravida sampled during the 2008 North Atlantic Bloom Experiment using newly-developed microsatellite markers. Here, we show that the genetic diversity of open ocean diatoms is high and that their population structure differs dramatically from coastal diatoms. High levels of genetic diversity were observed across all water samples and did not change during the bloom. Four genetically distinct populations were identified but were not associated with different water masses, depths or time points during the bloom. Instead, all four populations co-existed within samples, spanning different water masses, stages of the bloom and depths of over >300 m. The pattern of genetically distinct, co-existing populations in the open ocean contrasts dramatically with coastal habitats, where distinct populations have not been observed to co-exist at the same time and place. It is likely that populations originate via transport from disparate locations combined with overwintering capacity in the water column or sediments. The pattern of co-existence suggests that the open ocean may serve as a gene pool that harbors different populations that are then available for selection to act upon, which may contribute to the ecological and biogeochemical success of diatoms and influence their long-term evolutionary survival.

Long-term survival following open repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Englund, Raymond; Katib, Nedal

2017-05-01

Long-term results for patients being managed for ruptured compared to elective abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are unclear. We hypothesize that patients who survive 30 days or more following repair of ruptured AAA (RAAA) performed by open technique have a life expectancy no different to those patients surviving 30 days or more following elective AAA repair, or compared to a general age-matched population. Between 1987 and December 2014, 620 consecutive patients were treated by the principal author for aortic aneurysmal disease. Two subgroups were selected from this population, elective open abdominal repair (215) and RAAA open repair (105). Comparable age-matched life curves with the general population were used from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for each patient according to gender, age and date of presentation. Statistical comparison was by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Both the open and RAAA groups were well matched for age and sex. There was no statistical difference between RAAA survival and an age-matched population P = 0.23, or was there any difference between open repair and an age-matched population, P = 0.1. Survival curves for RAAA and open repair were similar, P = 0.98. For elective open repair 1-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year survival was 93.6, 71.2, 40, 17 and 2% respectively. Corresponding results for RAAA were 92.5, 74, 36.7, 13.5 and 5% respectively. Open AAA repair for RAAA or elective aneurysm treatment restores predicted life expectancy for those patients surviving 30 days or more and is therefore a durable method of treatment for this condition. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Improving inference for aerial surveys of bears: The importance of assumptions and the cost of unnecessary complexity.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; Wilson, Tammy L; Thompson, William L; Reynolds, Joel H

2017-07-01

Obtaining useful estimates of wildlife abundance or density requires thoughtful attention to potential sources of bias and precision, and it is widely understood that addressing incomplete detection is critical to appropriate inference. When the underlying assumptions of sampling approaches are violated, both increased bias and reduced precision of the population estimator may result. Bear ( Ursus spp.) populations can be difficult to sample and are often monitored using mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) methods, although obtaining adequate sample sizes can be cost prohibitive. With the goal of improving inference, we examined the underlying methodological assumptions and estimator efficiency of three datasets collected under an MRDS protocol designed specifically for bears. We analyzed these data using MRDS, conventional distance sampling (CDS), and open-distance sampling approaches to evaluate the apparent bias-precision tradeoff relative to the assumptions inherent under each approach. We also evaluated the incorporation of informative priors on detection parameters within a Bayesian context. We found that the CDS estimator had low apparent bias and was more efficient than the more complex MRDS estimator. When combined with informative priors on the detection process, precision was increased by >50% compared to the MRDS approach with little apparent bias. In addition, open-distance sampling models revealed a serious violation of the assumption that all bears were available to be sampled. Inference is directly related to the underlying assumptions of the survey design and the analytical tools employed. We show that for aerial surveys of bears, avoidance of unnecessary model complexity, use of prior information, and the application of open population models can be used to greatly improve estimator performance and simplify field protocols. Although we focused on distance sampling-based aerial surveys for bears, the general concepts we addressed apply to a variety of wildlife survey contexts.

Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

2018-01-01

This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

Population pharmacokinetics of rifampin in the treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Asian elephants.

PubMed

Egelund, E F; Isaza, R; Brock, A P; Alsultan, A; An, G; Peloquin, C A

2015-04-01

The objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for rifampin in elephants. Rifampin concentration data from three sources were pooled to provide a total of 233 oral concentrations from 37 Asian elephants. The population pharmacokinetic models were created using Monolix (version 4.2). Simulations were conducted using ModelRisk. We examined the influence of age, food, sex, and weight as model covariates. We further optimized the dosing of rifampin based upon simulations using the population pharmacokinetic model. Rifampin pharmacokinetics were best described by a one-compartment open model including first-order absorption with a lag time and first-order elimination. Body weight was a significant covariate for volume of distribution, and food intake was a significant covariate for lag time. The median Cmax of 6.07 μg/mL was below the target range of 8-24 μg/mL. Monte Carlo simulations predicted the highest treatable MIC of 0.25 μg/mL with the current initial dosing recommendation of 10 mg/kg, based upon a previously published target AUC0-24/MIC > 271 (fAUC > 41). Simulations from the population model indicate that the current dose of 10 mg/kg may be adequate for MICs up to 0.25 μg/mL. While the targeted AUC/MIC may be adequate for most MICs, the median Cmax for all elephants is below the human and elephant targeted ranges. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

2011-01-01

Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

3D geospatial visualizations: Animation and motion effects on spatial objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelidis, Konstantinos; Papadopoulos, Theofilos; Papatheodorou, Konstantinos; Mastorokostas, Paris; Hilas, Constantinos

2018-02-01

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), in combination with high quality raster graphics provide realistic three-dimensional (3D) representations of the globe (virtual globe) and amazing navigation experience over the terrain through earth browsers. In addition, the adoption of interoperable geospatial mark-up languages (e.g. KML) and open programming libraries (Javascript) makes it also possible to create 3D spatial objects and convey on them the sensation of any type of texture by utilizing open 3D representation models (e.g. Collada). One step beyond, by employing WebGL frameworks (e.g. Cesium.js, three.js) animation and motion effects are attributed on 3D models. However, major GIS-based functionalities in combination with all the above mentioned visualization capabilities such as for example animation effects on selected areas of the terrain texture (e.g. sea waves) as well as motion effects on 3D objects moving in dynamically defined georeferenced terrain paths (e.g. the motion of an animal over a hill, or of a big fish in an ocean etc.) are not widely supported at least by open geospatial applications or development frameworks. Towards this we developed and made available to the research community, an open geospatial software application prototype that provides high level capabilities for dynamically creating user defined virtual geospatial worlds populated by selected animated and moving 3D models on user specified locations, paths and areas. At the same time, the generated code may enhance existing open visualization frameworks and programming libraries dealing with 3D simulations, with the geospatial aspect of a virtual world.

X-Ray Binary Populations in a Cosmological Context, Including NuSTAR Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardiff, Ann Hornschemeier

2011-01-01

The new ultradeep 4 Ms Chandra Deep Field South has afforded the deepest view ever of X-ray binary populations. We report on the latest results on both LMXB and HMXB evolution out to redshifts of approximately four, including comparison with the latest theoretical models, using this deepest-ever view of the X-ray universe with Chandra. The upcoming NuSTAR mission will open up X-ray binary populations in the hard X-ray band, similar to the pioneering work of Fabbiano et al. in the Einstein era. We report on plans to study both Local Group and starburst galaxies as well as the implications those observations may have for X-ray binary populations in galaxies contributing to the Cosmic X-ray Background.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.« less

Remote Sensing in Archeology: Classifying Bajos of the Paten, Guatemala

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowry, James D., Jr.

1998-01-01

This project focuses on the adaptation of human populations to their environments from prehistoric times to the present. It emphasizes interdisciplinary research to develop ecological baselines through the use of remotely sensed imagery, in situ field work, and the modeling of human population dynamics. It utilizes cultural and biological data from dated archaeological sites to assess the subsistence and settlement patterns of human societies in response to changing climatic and environmental conditions. The utilization of remote sensing techniques in archaeology is relatively new, exciting, and opens many doors.

78 FR 38012 - National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-25

... of the data sources, data trends and population models that will be used in the upcoming Pacific...-Assessment Workshop webinar is open to the public, although space for online access is limited to the first...-Assessment Workshop webinar are to: (1) Present and describe data that may be included in the stock...

Querying Archetype-Based Electronic Health Records Using Hadoop and Dewey Encoding of openEHR Models.

PubMed

Sundvall, Erik; Wei-Kleiner, Fang; Freire, Sergio M; Lambrix, Patrick

2017-01-01

Archetype-based Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems using generic reference models from e.g. openEHR, ISO 13606 or CIMI should be easy to update and reconfigure with new types (or versions) of data models or entries, ideally with very limited programming or manual database tweaking. Exploratory research (e.g. epidemiology) leading to ad-hoc querying on a population-wide scale can be a challenge in such environments. This publication describes implementation and test of an archetype-aware Dewey encoding optimization that can be used to produce such systems in environments supporting relational operations, e.g. RDBMs and distributed map-reduce frameworks like Hadoop. Initial testing was done using a nine-node 2.2 GHz quad-core Hadoop cluster querying a dataset consisting of targeted extracts from 4+ million real patient EHRs, query results with sub-minute response time were obtained.

Biomarkers of environmental benzene exposure.

PubMed Central

Weisel, C; Yu, R; Roy, A; Georgopoulos, P

1996-01-01

Environmental exposures to benzene result in increases in body burden that are reflected in various biomarkers of exposure, including benzene in exhaled breath, benzene in blood and urinary trans-trans-muconic acid and S-phenylmercapturic acid. A review of the literature indicates that these biomarkers can be used to distinguish populations with different levels of exposure (such as smokers from nonsmokers and occupationally exposed from environmentally exposed populations) and to determine differences in metabolism. Biomarkers in humans have shown that the percentage of benzene metabolized by the ring-opening pathway is greater at environmental exposures than that at higher occupational exposures, a trend similar to that found in animal studies. This suggests that the dose-response curve is nonlinear; that potential different metabolic mechanisms exist at high and low doses; and that the validity of a linear extrapolation of adverse effects measured at high doses to a population exposed to lower, environmental levels of benzene is uncertain. Time-series measurements of the biomarker, exhaled breath, were used to evaluate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Biases were identified between the PBPK model predictions and experimental data that were adequately described using an empirical compartmental model. It is suggested that a mapping of the PBPK model to a compartmental model can be done to optimize the parameters in the PBPK model to provide a future framework for developing a population physiologically based pharmacokinetic model. PMID:9118884

An interactive environmental model for economic growth: evidence from a panel of countries.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, Suresh; Hishan, Sanil S; Nabi, Agha Amad; Arshad, Zeeshan; Kanjanapathy, Malini; Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Faisal

2016-07-01

This study aims to determine an interactive environmental model for economic growth that would be supported by the "sustainability principles" across the globe. The study examines the relationship between environmental pollutants (i.e., carbon dioxide emission, sulfur dioxide emission, mono-nitrogen oxide, and nitrous oxide emission); population growth; energy use; trade openness; per capita food production; and it's resulting impact on the real per capita GDP and sectoral growth (i.e., share of agriculture, industry, and services in GDP) in a panel of 34 high-income OECD, high-income non-OECD, and Europe and Central Asian countries, for the period of 1995-2014. The results of the panel fixed effect regression show that per capita GDP are influenced by sulfur dioxide emission, population growth, and per capita food production variability, while energy and trade openness significantly increases per capita income of the region. The results of the panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) show that carbon dioxide emission significantly decreases the share of agriculture and industry in GDP, while it further supports the share of services sector to GDP. Both the sulfur dioxide and mono-nitrogen oxide emission decreases the share of services in GDP; nitrous oxide decreases the share of industry in GDP; while mono-nitrogen oxide supports the industrial activities. The following key growth-specific results has been obtained from the panel SUR estimation, i.e., (i) Both the food production per capita and trade openness significantly associated with the increasing share of agriculture, (ii) food production and energy use significantly increases the service sectors' productivity; (iii) food production decreases the industrial activities; (iv) trade openness decreases the share of services to GDP while it supports the industrial share to GDP; and finally, (v) energy demand decreases along with the increase agricultural share in the region. The results emphasize the need for an interactive environmental model that facilitates the process of sustainable development across the globe.

A model to relate wind tunnel measurements to open field odorant emissions from liquid area sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucernoni, F.; Capelli, L.; Busini, V.; Sironi, S.

2017-05-01

Waste Water Treatment Plants are known to have significant emissions of several pollutants and odorants causing nuisance to the near-living population. One of the purposes of the present work is to study a suitable model to evaluate odour emissions from liquid passive area sources. First, the models describing volatilization under a forced convection regime inside a wind tunnel device, which is the sampling device that typically used for sampling on liquid area sources, were investigated. In order to relate the fluid dynamic conditions inside the hood to the open field and inside the hood a thorough study of the models capable of describing the volatilization phenomena of the odorous compounds from liquid pools was performed and several different models were evaluated for the open field emission. By means of experimental tests involving pure liquid acetone and pure liquid butanone, it was verified that the model more suitable to describe precisely the volatilization inside the sampling hood is the model for the emission from a single flat plate in forced convection and laminar regime, with a fluid dynamic boundary layer fully developed and a mass transfer boundary layer not fully developed. The proportionality coefficient for the model was re-evaluated in order to account for the specific characteristics of the adopted wind tunnel device, and then the model was related with the selected model for the open field thereby computing the wind speed at 10 m that would cause the same emission that is estimated from the wind tunnel measurement furthermore, the field of application of the proposed model was clearly defined for the considered models during the project, discussing the two different kinds of compounds commonly found in emissive liquid pools or liquid spills, i.e. gas phase controlled and liquid phase controlled compounds. Lastly, a discussion is presented comparing the presented approach for emission rates recalculation in the field, with other approaches possible, i.e. the ones relying on the recalculation of the wind speed at the emission level, instead of the wind speed that would cause in the open field the same emission that is measured with the hood.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

American Marten Respond to Seismic Lines in Northern Canada at Two Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tigner, Jesse; Bayne, Erin M.; Boutin, Stan

2015-01-01

Development of hydrocarbon resources across northwest Canada has spurred economic prosperity and generated concerns over impacts to biodiversity. To balance these interests, numerous jurisdictions have adopted management thresholds that allow for limited energy development but minimize undesirable impacts to wildlife. Used for exploration, seismic lines are the most abundant linear feature in the boreal forest and exist at a variety of widths and recovery states. We used American marten (Martes americana) as a model species to measure how line attributes influence species’ response to seismic lines, and asked whether responses to individual lines trigger population impacts. Marten response to seismic lines was strongly influenced by line width and recovery state. Compared to forest interiors, marten used open seismic lines ≥ 3 m wide less often, but used open lines ≤ 2 m wide and partially recovered lines ≥ 6 m wide similarly. Marten response to individual line types appeared to trigger population impacts. The probability of occurrence at the home range scale declined with increasing seismic line density, and the inclusion of behavioral response to line density calculations improved model fit. In our top performing model, we excluded seismic lines ≤ 2 m from our calculation of line density, and the probability of occurrence declined > 80% between home ranges with the lowest and highest line densities. Models that excluded seismic lines did not strongly explain occurrence. We show how wildlife-derived metrics can inform regulatory guidelines to increase the likelihood those guidelines meet intended management objectives. With respect to marten, not all seismic lines constitute disturbances, but avoidance of certain line types scales to population impacts. This approach provides the ecological context required to understand cause and effect relationships among socio-economic and ecological conservation goals. PMID:25768848

X-Ray source populations in old open clusters: Collinder 261

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vats, Smriti; van den Berg, Maureen; Wijnands, Rudy

2014-09-01

We are carrying out an X-ray survey of old open clusters with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Single old stars, being slow rotators, are very faint in X-rays (L_X < 1×10^27 erg/s). Hence, X-rays produced by mass transfer in cataclysmic variables (CVs) or by rapid rotation of the stars in tidally locked, detached binaries (active binaries; ABs) can be detected, without contamination from single stars. By comparing the properties of various types of interacting binaries in different environments (the Galactic field, old open clusters, globular clusters), we aim to study binary evolution and how it may be affected by dynamical encounters with other cluster stars. Stellar clusters are good targets to study binaries, as age, distance, chemical composition, are well constrained. Collinder (Cr) 261 is an old open cluster (age ~ 7 Gyr), with one of the richest populations inferred of close binaries and blue stragglers of all open clusters and is therefore an obvious target to study the products of close encounters in open clusters. We will present the first results of this study, detailing the low-luminosity X-ray population of Cr 261, in conjunction with other open clusters in our survey (NGC 188, Berkeley 17, NGC 6253, M67, NGC 6791) and in comparison with populations in globular clusters.

Simulating free-roaming cat population management options in open demographic environments.

PubMed

Miller, Philip S; Boone, John D; Briggs, Joyce R; Lawler, Dennis F; Levy, Julie K; Nutter, Felicia B; Slater, Margaret; Zawistowski, Stephen

2014-01-01

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment.

Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

2017-10-01

We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

PUFoam : A novel open-source CFD solver for the simulation of polyurethane foams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, M.; Droghetti, H.; Marchisio, D. L.

2017-08-01

In this work a transient three-dimensional mathematical model is formulated and validated for the simulation of polyurethane (PU) foams. The model is based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and is coupled with a population balance equation (PBE) to describe the evolution of the gas bubbles/cells within the PU foam. The front face of the expanding foam is monitored on the basis of the volume-of-fluid (VOF) method using a compressible solver available in OpenFOAM version 3.0.1. The solver is additionally supplemented to include the PBE, solved with the quadrature method of moments (QMOM), the polymerization kinetics, an adequate rheological model and a simple model for the foam thermal conductivity. The new solver is labelled as PUFoam and is, for the first time in this work, validated for 12 different mixing-cup experiments. Comparison of the time evolution of the predicted and experimentally measured density and temperature of the PU foam shows the potentials and limitations of the approach.

Pulsar gamma rays from polar cap regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiang, James; Romani, Roger W.

1992-01-01

The production is studied of pulsar gamma rays by energetic electrons flowing in the open field region above pulsar polar caps. The propagation was followed of curvature radiation from primary electrons, as well as hard synchrotron radiation generated by secondary pairs, through the pulsar magnetosphere for vacuum dipole open field geometries. Using data from radio and optical observations, models were constructed for the specific geometries and viewing angles appropriate to particular pulsars. These detailed models produce normalized spectra above 10 MeV, pulse profiles, beaming fractions and phase resolved spectra appropriate for direct comparison with COS-B and GRO data. Models are given for the Crab, Vela, and other potentially detectable pulsars; general agreement with existing data is good, although perturbations to the simplified models are needed for close matches. The calculations were extended to the millisecond pulsar range, which allows the production of predictions for the flux and spectra of populations of recycled pulsars and search strategies are pointed out.

Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Wessells, K Ryan; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel

2015-10-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency. We estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact. The total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity. Our results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Myers et al. Open access article published under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, Kenneth H.; Nichols, James D.; Brownie, Cavell; Hines, James E.

1990-01-01

This monograph presents a detailed, practical exposition on the design, analysis, and interpretation of capture-recapture studies. The Lincoln-Petersen model (Chapter 2) and the closed population models (Chapter 3) are presented only briefly because these models have been covered in detail elsewhere. The Jolly- Seber open population model, which is central to the monograph, is covered in detail in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 we consider the "enumeration" or "calendar of captures" approach, which is widely used by mammalogists and other vertebrate ecologists. We strongly recommend that it be abandoned in favor of analyses based on the Jolly-Seber model. We consider 2 restricted versions of the Jolly-Seber model. We believe the first of these, which allows losses (mortality or emigration) but not additions (births or immigration), is likely to be useful in practice. Another series of restrictive models requires the assumptions of a constant survival rate or a constant survival rate and a constant capture rate for the duration of the study. Detailed examples are given that illustrate the usefulness of these restrictions. There often can be a substantial gain in precision over Jolly-Seber estimates. In Chapter 5 we also consider 2 generalizations of the Jolly-Seber model. The temporary trap response model allows newly marked animals to have different survival and capture rates for 1 period. The other generalization is the cohort Jolly-Seber model. Ideally all animals would be marked as young, and age effects considered by using the Jolly-Seber model on each cohort separately. In Chapter 6 we present a detailed description of an age-dependent Jolly-Seber model, which can be used when 2 or more identifiable age classes are marked. In Chapter 7 we present a detailed description of the "robust" design. Under this design each primary period contains several secondary sampling periods. We propose an estimation procedure based on closed and open population models that allows for heterogeneity and trap response of capture rates (hence the name robust design). We begin by considering just 1 age class and then extend to 2 age classes. When there are 2 age classes it is possible to distinguish immigrants and births. In Chapter 8 we give a detailed discussion of the design of capture-recapture studies. First, capture-recapture is compared to other possible sampling procedures. Next, the design of capture-recapture studies to minimize assumption violations is considered. Finally, we consider the precision of parameter estimates and present figures on proportional standard errors for a variety of initial parameter values to aid the biologist about to plan a study. A new program, JOLLY, has been written to accompany the material on the Jolly-Seber model (Chapter 4) and its extensions (Chapter 5). Another new program, JOLLYAGE, has been written for a special case of the age-dependent model (Chapter 6) where there are only 2 age classes. In Chapter 9 a brief description of the different versions of the 2 programs is given. Chapter 10 gives a brief description of some alternative approaches that were not considered in this monograph. We believe that an excellent overall view of capture- recapture models may be obtained by reading the monograph by White et al. (1982) emphasizing closed models and then reading this monograph where we concentrate on open models. The important recent monograph by Burnham et al. (1987) could then be read if there were interest in the comparison of different populations.

An update of demographic estimates for the Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) from Oregon's Central Coast Ranges

Treesearch

James A. Thrailkill; Robert G. Anthony; E. Charles Meslow

1997-01-01

Demographic characteristics of the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) were studied on the Eugene District Bureau of Land Management, central Oregon Coast Ranges from 1989-1995. Survival rates were estimated from capture histories of banded owls using Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models. We banded 233 owls, including 119 that...

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

PubMed Central

Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

2010-01-01

Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

Observational learning from tool using models by human-reared and mother-reared capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella).

PubMed

Fredman, Tamar; Whiten, Andrew

2008-04-01

Studies of wild capuchins suggest an important role for social learning, but experiments with captive subjects have generally not supported this. Here we report social learning in two quite different populations of capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella). In experiment 1, human-raised monkeys observed a familiar human model open a foraging box using a tool in one of two alternative ways: levering versus poking. In experiment 2, mother-raised monkeys viewed similar techniques demonstrated by monkey models. A control group in each population saw no model. In both experiments, independent coders detected which technique experimental subjects had seen, thus confirming social learning. Further analyses examined fidelity of copying at three levels of resolution. The human-raised monkeys exhibited fidelity at the highest level, the specific tool use technique witnessed. The lever technique was seen only in monkeys exposed to a levering model, by contrast with controls and those witnessing poke. Mother-reared monkeys instead typically ignored the tool and exhibited fidelity at a lower level, tending only to re-create whichever result the model had achieved by either levering or poking. Nevertheless this level of social learning was associated with significantly greater levels of success in monkeys witnessing a model than in controls, an effect absent in the human-reared population. Results in both populations are consistent with a process of canalization of the repertoire in the direction of the approach witnessed, producing a narrower, socially shaped behavioural profile than among controls who saw no model.

Making sense of mobile health data: an open architecture to improve individual- and population-level health.

PubMed

Chen, Connie; Haddad, David; Selsky, Joshua; Hoffman, Julia E; Kravitz, Richard L; Estrin, Deborah E; Sim, Ida

2012-08-09

Mobile phones and devices, with their constant presence, data connectivity, and multiple intrinsic sensors, can support around-the-clock chronic disease prevention and management that is integrated with daily life. These mobile health (mHealth) devices can produce tremendous amounts of location-rich, real-time, high-frequency data. Unfortunately, these data are often full of bias, noise, variability, and gaps. Robust tools and techniques have not yet been developed to make mHealth data more meaningful to patients and clinicians. To be most useful, health data should be sharable across multiple mHealth applications and connected to electronic health records. The lack of data sharing and dearth of tools and techniques for making sense of health data are critical bottlenecks limiting the impact of mHealth to improve health outcomes. We describe Open mHealth, a nonprofit organization that is building an open software architecture to address these data sharing and "sense-making" bottlenecks. Our architecture consists of open source software modules with well-defined interfaces using a minimal set of common metadata. An initial set of modules, called InfoVis, has been developed for data analysis and visualization. A second set of modules, our Personal Evidence Architecture, will support scientific inferences from mHealth data. These Personal Evidence Architecture modules will include standardized, validated clinical measures to support novel evaluation methods, such as n-of-1 studies. All of Open mHealth's modules are designed to be reusable across multiple applications, disease conditions, and user populations to maximize impact and flexibility. We are also building an open community of developers and health innovators, modeled after the open approach taken in the initial growth of the Internet, to foster meaningful cross-disciplinary collaboration around new tools and techniques. An open mHealth community and architecture will catalyze increased mHealth efficiency, effectiveness, and innovation.

Making Sense of Mobile Health Data: An Open Architecture to Improve Individual- and Population-Level Health

PubMed Central

Chen, Connie; Haddad, David; Selsky, Joshua; Hoffman, Julia E; Kravitz, Richard L; Estrin, Deborah E

2012-01-01

Mobile phones and devices, with their constant presence, data connectivity, and multiple intrinsic sensors, can support around-the-clock chronic disease prevention and management that is integrated with daily life. These mobile health (mHealth) devices can produce tremendous amounts of location-rich, real-time, high-frequency data. Unfortunately, these data are often full of bias, noise, variability, and gaps. Robust tools and techniques have not yet been developed to make mHealth data more meaningful to patients and clinicians. To be most useful, health data should be sharable across multiple mHealth applications and connected to electronic health records. The lack of data sharing and dearth of tools and techniques for making sense of health data are critical bottlenecks limiting the impact of mHealth to improve health outcomes. We describe Open mHealth, a nonprofit organization that is building an open software architecture to address these data sharing and “sense-making” bottlenecks. Our architecture consists of open source software modules with well-defined interfaces using a minimal set of common metadata. An initial set of modules, called InfoVis, has been developed for data analysis and visualization. A second set of modules, our Personal Evidence Architecture, will support scientific inferences from mHealth data. These Personal Evidence Architecture modules will include standardized, validated clinical measures to support novel evaluation methods, such as n-of-1 studies. All of Open mHealth’s modules are designed to be reusable across multiple applications, disease conditions, and user populations to maximize impact and flexibility. We are also building an open community of developers and health innovators, modeled after the open approach taken in the initial growth of the Internet, to foster meaningful cross-disciplinary collaboration around new tools and techniques. An open mHealth community and architecture will catalyze increased mHealth efficiency, effectiveness, and innovation. PMID:22875563

pyLIMA : an open source microlensing software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, Etienne

2017-01-01

Planetary microlensing is a unique tool to detect cold planets around low-mass stars which is approaching a watershed in discoveries as near-future missions incorporate dedicated surveys. NASA and ESA have decided to complement WFIRST-AFTA and Euclid with microlensing programs to enrich our statistics about this planetary population. Of the nany challenges in- herent in these missions, the data analysis is of primary importance, yet is often perceived as time consuming, complex and daunting barrier to participation in the field. We present the first open source modeling software to conduct a microlensing analysis. This software is written in Python and use as much as possible existing packages.

Quartz c-axis orientation patterns in fracture cement as a measure of fracture opening rate and a validation tool for fracture pattern models

DOE PAGES

Ukar, Estibalitz; Laubach, Stephen E.; Marrett, Randall

2016-03-09

Here, we evaluate a published model for crystal growth patterns in quartz cement in sandstone fractures by comparing crystal fracture-spanning predictions to quartz c-axis orientation distributions measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of spanning quartz deposits. Samples from eight subvertical opening-mode fractures in four sandstone formations, the Jurassic– Cretaceous Nikanassin Formation, northwestern Alberta Foothills (Canada), Cretaceous Mesaverde Group (USA; Cozzette Sandstone Member of the Iles Formation), Piceance Basin, Colorado (USA), and upper Jurassic–lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group (Taylor sandstone) and overlying Travis Peak Formation, east Texas, have similar quartzose composition and grain size but contain fractures with different temperature historiesmore » and opening rates based on fluid inclusion assemblages and burial history. Spherical statistical analysis shows that, in agreement with model predictions, bridging crystals have a preferred orientation with c-axis orientations at a high angle to fracture walls. The second form of validation is for spanning potential that depends on the size of cut substrate grains. Using measured cut substrate grain sizes and c-axis orientations of spanning bridges, we calculated the required orientation for the smallest cut grain to span the maximum gap size and the required orientation of the crystal with the least spanning potential to form overgrowths that span across maximum measured gap sizes. We find that within a 10° error all spanning crystals conform to model predictions. Using crystals with the lowest spanning potential based on crystallographic orientation (c-axis parallel to fracture wall) and a temperature range for fracture opening measured from fluid inclusion assemblages, we calculate maximum fracture opening rates that allow crystals to span. These rates are comparable to those derived independently from fracture temperature histories based on burial history and multiple sequential fluid inclusion assemblages. Results support the R. Lander and S. Laubach model, which predicts that for quartz deposited synchronously with fracture opening, spanning potential, or likelihood of quartz deposits that are thick enough to span between fracture walls, depends on temperature history, fracture opening rate, size of opening increments, and size, mineralogy, and crystallographic orientation of substrates in the fracture wall (transected grains). Results suggest that EBSD maps, which can be more rapidly acquired than measurement of tens to hundreds of fluid inclusion assemblages, can provide a useful measure of relative opening rates within populations of quartz-filled fractures formed under sedimentary basin conditions. Such data are useful for evaluating fracture pattern development models.« less

Quartz c-axis orientation patterns in fracture cement as a measure of fracture opening rate and a validation tool for fracture pattern models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ukar, Estibalitz; Laubach, Stephen E.; Marrett, Randall

Here, we evaluate a published model for crystal growth patterns in quartz cement in sandstone fractures by comparing crystal fracture-spanning predictions to quartz c-axis orientation distributions measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of spanning quartz deposits. Samples from eight subvertical opening-mode fractures in four sandstone formations, the Jurassic– Cretaceous Nikanassin Formation, northwestern Alberta Foothills (Canada), Cretaceous Mesaverde Group (USA; Cozzette Sandstone Member of the Iles Formation), Piceance Basin, Colorado (USA), and upper Jurassic–lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group (Taylor sandstone) and overlying Travis Peak Formation, east Texas, have similar quartzose composition and grain size but contain fractures with different temperature historiesmore » and opening rates based on fluid inclusion assemblages and burial history. Spherical statistical analysis shows that, in agreement with model predictions, bridging crystals have a preferred orientation with c-axis orientations at a high angle to fracture walls. The second form of validation is for spanning potential that depends on the size of cut substrate grains. Using measured cut substrate grain sizes and c-axis orientations of spanning bridges, we calculated the required orientation for the smallest cut grain to span the maximum gap size and the required orientation of the crystal with the least spanning potential to form overgrowths that span across maximum measured gap sizes. We find that within a 10° error all spanning crystals conform to model predictions. Using crystals with the lowest spanning potential based on crystallographic orientation (c-axis parallel to fracture wall) and a temperature range for fracture opening measured from fluid inclusion assemblages, we calculate maximum fracture opening rates that allow crystals to span. These rates are comparable to those derived independently from fracture temperature histories based on burial history and multiple sequential fluid inclusion assemblages. Results support the R. Lander and S. Laubach model, which predicts that for quartz deposited synchronously with fracture opening, spanning potential, or likelihood of quartz deposits that are thick enough to span between fracture walls, depends on temperature history, fracture opening rate, size of opening increments, and size, mineralogy, and crystallographic orientation of substrates in the fracture wall (transected grains). Results suggest that EBSD maps, which can be more rapidly acquired than measurement of tens to hundreds of fluid inclusion assemblages, can provide a useful measure of relative opening rates within populations of quartz-filled fractures formed under sedimentary basin conditions. Such data are useful for evaluating fracture pattern development models.« less

Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding grassland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, Bruce G.

2006-01-01

The status of grassland birds has become an increasingly important conservation issue. These species exhibit the most consistent population declines of any group of North American birds during the past 40 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests these declines have been occurring for nearly a century (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999). While the widespread conversion of grasslands into other habitats contributed to these declining populations, other factors such as habitat fragmentation and mowing regimes are also implicated (Vickery et al. 1999a). This plight of grassland birds has heightened awareness of the need for concerted conservation actions to reverse these seriously declining population trends. The National Park Service (NPS) is positioned to potentially contribute to grassland bird conservation in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The NPS maintains a number of historic sites and former battlefields that are managed for their cultural significance but also support wildlife populations. Many of these “cultural parks” maintain open landscapes to recreate land use patterns that existed at the times of the historical events. These open landscapes are primarily managed grasslands which could be maintained to benefit grassland birds. In 2005, the NPS initiated a project exploring the potential of “cultural parks” to support significant breeding grassland bird communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpretation of historic events. Most parks were selected because they represent the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, with the rationale that if these parks cannot support significant breeding grassland bird communities, then parks with smaller acreages cannot support these communities either. The five parks included in this study are: Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS Network Coordinators to understand the factors to consider when making decisions concerning grassland management within their networks. This model provides park Resource Managers with information on grassland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of grassland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues that influence whether significant breeding populations can be expected to occupy grasslands created and maintained in the parks. The Resource Managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain grassland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding grassland birds. Additional species may occur in this region during migration and winter, while habitat requirements of all grassland birds during nonbreeding seasons will differ from those described for the breeding season.

An Open-Access Modeled Passenger Flow Matrix for the Global Air Network in 2010

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J.; Fik, Timothy J.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data. PMID:23691194

EuroForMix: An open source software based on a continuous model to evaluate STR DNA profiles from a mixture of contributors with artefacts.

PubMed

Bleka, Øyvind; Storvik, Geir; Gill, Peter

2016-03-01

We have released a software named EuroForMix to analyze STR DNA profiles in a user-friendly graphical user interface. The software implements a model to explain the allelic peak height on a continuous scale in order to carry out weight-of-evidence calculations for profiles which could be from a mixture of contributors. Through a properly parameterized model we are able to do inference on mixture proportions, the peak height properties, stutter proportion and degradation. In addition, EuroForMix includes models for allele drop-out, allele drop-in and sub-population structure. EuroForMix supports two inference approaches for likelihood ratio calculations. The first approach uses maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters. The second approach is Bayesian based which requires prior distributions to be specified for the parameters involved. The user may specify any number of known and unknown contributors in the model, however we find that there is a practical computing time limit which restricts the model to a maximum of four unknown contributors. EuroForMix is the first freely open source, continuous model (accommodating peak height, stutter, drop-in, drop-out, population substructure and degradation), to be reported in the literature. It therefore serves an important purpose to act as an unrestricted platform to compare different solutions that are available. The implementation of the continuous model used in the software showed close to identical results to the R-package DNAmixtures, which requires a HUGIN Expert license to be used. An additional feature in EuroForMix is the ability for the user to adapt the Bayesian inference framework by incorporating their own prior information. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J; Fik, Timothy J; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

2010-01-01

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

Optimal optic nerve sheath diameter threshold for the identification of elevated opening pressure on lumbar puncture in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Lijuan; Feng, Liangshu; Yao, Yan; Wang, Yuzhi; Chen, Ying; Feng, Jiachun; Xing, Yingqi

2015-01-01

Ultrasonography of the optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) is a non-invasive and rapid method that might be helpful in the identification of increased intracranial pressure (ICP). The use of an ONSD greater than 5 mm on ultrasound as an indicator of increased ICP in a Caucasian population has been studied. However, the cut-off point of this predictor in Chinese patients has not been established. Thus, we conducted this study to identify the ONSD criterion for the detection of elevated opening pressure on lumbar puncture (LP) in a Chinese population and to investigate the influencing factors. This study was a blind cross-sectional study. Patients who presented with suspected increased ICP were included. The opening pressure on LP of each participant was confirmed. We analyzed the clinical differences between the groups of patients with abnormal and normal opening pressures on LP. A receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to determine the ONSD cut-off point for the identification of abnormal opening pressure on LP. In total, 279 patients were recruited, and 101 patients presented with elevated opening pressure on LP. ONSD was a significant independent predictor of elevated opening pressure on LP (p<0.001). However, no statistical significance was observed regarding the factors that might have affected this relationship including gender, age, body mass index, waistline, head circumference, hypertension and pathological subtype. The ONSD cut-off point for the identification of elevated opening pressure on LP was 4.1 mm; this cut-off yielded a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 92%. ONSD is a strong and accurate predictor of elevated opening pressure on LP. The cut-off point of this predictor in a Chinese population was remarkably lower than that found in a Caucasian population. Thus, ethnic differences should be noted when using the ONSD as an indicator of increased ICP.

Modelling the effect of ascorbic acid, sodium metabisulphite and sodium chloride on the kinetic responses of lactic acid bacteria and yeasts in table olive storage using a specifically implemented Quasi-chemical primary model.

PubMed

Echevarria, R; Bautista-Gallego, J; Arroyo-López, F N; Garrido-Fernández, A

2010-04-15

The goal of this work was to apply the Quasi-chemical primary model (a system of four ordinary differential equations that derives from a hypothetical four-step chemical mechanism involving an antagonistic metabolite) in the study of the evolution of yeast and lactic acid bacteria populations during the storage of Manzanilla-Aloreña table olives subjected to different mixtures of ascorbic acid, sodium metabisulphite and NaCl. Firstly, the Quasi-chemical model was applied to microbial count data to estimate the growth-decay biological parameters. The model accurately described the evolution of both populations during storage, providing detailed information on the microbial behaviour. Secondly, these parameters were used as responses and analysed according to a mixture design experiment (secondary model). The contour lines of the corresponding response surfaces clearly disclosed the relationships between growth and environmental conditions, showing the stimulating and inhibitory effect of ascorbic acid and sodium metabisulphite, respectively, on both populations of microorganisms. This work opens new possibilities for the potential use of the Quasi-chemical primary model in the study of table olive fermentations. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

2008-07-01

Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate formore » planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing incident management and medical monitoring strategies. The importance of being able to link population estimates to geographic areas during the course of an RDD incident can be understood intuitively: - The spatial distribution of actual total dose equivalents of ionizing radiation is likely to vary due to changes in meteorological parameters as an event evolves over time; - The size of the geographical area affected also is likely to vary as a function of the actual release scenario; - The ability to identify the location and size of the populations that may be exposed to doses of ionizing radiation is critical to carrying out appropriate treatment and post-event medical monitoring; - Once a spatial interaction model has been validated for a city or a region, it can then be used for simulation and prediction purposes to assess the possible human health consequences of different release scenarios. (authors)« less

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Islands increase genetic subdivision and disrupt patterns of connectivity of intertidal snails in a complex archipelago.

PubMed

Johnson, Michael S; Black, Robert

2006-12-01

The view that marine species with planktonic dispersal have highly connected, demographically open populations is giving way to recognition that populations may often be largely self-recruiting, or demographically closed. This raises the question of what local conditions might favor isolation of populations. To test the importance of islands for local isolation in species with planktonic larvae, we examined allozyme variation among 35 populations of the intertidal snail Austrocochlea constricta in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, spanning 60 km. Heterogeneity of allozyme frequencies among populations was high, with average F(ST) of 0.237, indicating highly localized populations. Increased subdivision was associated with islands at different scales: between island groups, separated by deep water gaps, and between disconnected sets of islands within groups. At short distances, up to two km, subdivision increased fivefold between islands compared with that between populations on the same island. Along 11 km of continuous, sheltered shore, there was isolation by distance but among a linear series of islands over similar distance, there was greater subdivision at short distances but no association with distance. These patterns had been seen previously in the direct-developing snail Bembicium vittatum, but its finding in A. constricta confirms for a planktonic disperser the importance of this complex archipelago for both retention of locally produced larvae and disruption of patterns of connectivity. Taken together, these results indicate that islands can increase both the "open" and the "closed" components of recruitment and that applicable models of genetic connectivity depend substantially on local conditions.

Globular cluster chemistry in fast-rotating dwarf stars belonging to intermediate-age open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pancino, Elena

2018-06-01

The peculiar chemistry observed in multiple populations of Galactic globular clusters is not generally found in other systems such as dwarf galaxies and open clusters, and no model can currently fully explain it. Exploring the boundaries of the multiple-population phenomenon and the variation of its extent in the space of cluster mass, age, metallicity, and compactness has proven to be a fruitful line of investigation. In the framework of a larger project to search for multiple populations in open clusters that is based on literature and survey data, I found peculiar chemical abundance patterns in a sample of intermediate-age open clusters with publicly available data. More specifically, fast-rotating dwarf stars (v sin i ≥ 50 km s-1) that belong to four clusters (Pleiades, Ursa Major, Come Berenices, and Hyades) display a bimodality in either [Na/Fe] or [O/Fe], or both, with the low-Na and high-O peak more populated than the high-Na and low-O peak. Additionally, two clusters show a Na-O anti-correlation in the fast-rotating stars, and one cluster shows a large [Mg/Fe] variation in stars with high [Na/Fe], reaching the extreme Mg depletion observed in NGC 2808. Even considering that the sample sizes are small, these patterns call for attention in the light of a possible connection with the multiple population phenomenon of globular clusters. The specific chemistry observed in these fast-rotating dwarf stars is thought to be produced by a complex interplay of different diffusion and mixing mechanisms, such as rotational mixing and mass loss, which in turn are influenced by metallicity, binarity, mass, age, variability, and so on. However, with the sample in hand, it was not possible to identify which stellar parameters cause the observed Na and O bimodality and Na-O anti-correlation. This suggests that other stellar properties might be important in addition to stellar rotation. Stellar binarity might influence the rotational properties and enhance rotational mixing and mass loss of stars in a dense environment like that of clusters (especially globulars). In conclusion, rotation and binarity appear as a promising research avenue for better understanding multiple stellar populations in globular clusters; this is certainly worth exploring further.

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2018-07-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-11-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Rates and equilibrium constants of the ligand-induced conformational transition of an HCN ion channel protein domain determined by DEER spectroscopy.

PubMed

Collauto, Alberto; DeBerg, Hannah A; Kaufmann, Royi; Zagotta, William N; Stoll, Stefan; Goldfarb, Daniella

2017-06-14

Ligand binding can induce significant conformational changes in proteins. The mechanism of this process couples equilibria associated with the ligand binding event and the conformational change. Here we show that by combining the application of W-band double electron-electron resonance (DEER) spectroscopy with microfluidic rapid freeze quench (μRFQ) it is possible to resolve these processes and obtain both equilibrium constants and reaction rates. We studied the conformational transition of the nitroxide labeled, isolated carboxy-terminal cyclic-nucleotide binding domain (CNBD) of the HCN2 ion channel upon binding of the ligand 3',5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). Using model-based global analysis, the time-resolved data of the μRFQ DEER experiments directly provide fractional populations of the open and closed conformations as a function of time. We modeled the ligand-induced conformational change in the protein using a four-state model: apo/open (AO), apo/closed (AC), bound/open (BO), bound/closed (BC). These species interconvert according to AC + L ⇌ AO + L ⇌ BO ⇌ BC. By analyzing the concentration dependence of the relative contributions of the closed and open conformations at equilibrium, we estimated the equilibrium constants for the two conformational equilibria and the open-state ligand dissociation constant. Analysis of the time-resolved μRFQ DEER data gave estimates for the intrinsic rates of ligand binding and unbinding as well as the rates of the conformational change. This demonstrates that DEER can quantitatively resolve both the thermodynamics and the kinetics of ligand binding and the associated conformational change.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Fast Open-World Person Re-Identification.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiatian; Wu, Botong; Huang, Dongcheng; Zheng, Wei-Shi

2018-05-01

Existing person re-identification (re-id) methods typically assume that: 1) any probe person is guaranteed to appear in the gallery target population during deployment (i.e., closed-world) and 2) the probe set contains only a limited number of people (i.e., small search scale). Both assumptions are artificial and breached in real-world applications, since the probe population in target people search can be extremely vast in practice due to the ambiguity of probe search space boundary. Therefore, it is unrealistic that any probe person is assumed as one target people, and a large-scale search in person images is inherently demanded. In this paper, we introduce a new person re-id search setting, called large scale open-world (LSOW) re-id, characterized by huge size probe images and open person population in search thus more close to practical deployments. Under LSOW, the under-studied problem of person re-id efficiency is essential in addition to that of commonly studied re-id accuracy. We, therefore, develop a novel fast person re-id method, called Cross-view Identity Correlation and vErification (X-ICE) hashing, for joint learning of cross-view identity representation binarisation and discrimination in a unified manner. Extensive comparative experiments on three large-scale benchmarks have been conducted to validate the superiority and advantages of the proposed X-ICE method over a wide range of the state-of-the-art hashing models, person re-id methods, and their combinations.

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in Hong Kong: Modelling demographic parameters with mark-recapture techniques.

PubMed

Chan, Stephen C Y; Karczmarski, Leszek

2017-01-01

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010-2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144-231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87-111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised.

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in Hong Kong: Modelling demographic parameters with mark-recapture techniques

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010–2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144–231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87–111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised. PMID:28355228

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

PubMed

Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tenan, Simone; Pradel, Roger; Igual, José-Manuel; Genovart, Meritxell; Oro, Daniel

2016-12-01

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robust Weak Chimeras in Oscillator Networks with Delayed Linear and Quadratic Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bick, Christian; Sebek, Michael; Kiss, István Z.

2017-10-01

We present an approach to generate chimera dynamics (localized frequency synchrony) in oscillator networks with two populations of (at least) two elements using a general method based on a delayed interaction with linear and quadratic terms. The coupling design yields robust chimeras through a phase-model-based design of the delay and the ratio of linear and quadratic components of the interactions. We demonstrate the method in the Brusselator model and experiments with electrochemical oscillators. The technique opens the way to directly bridge chimera dynamics in phase models and real-world oscillator networks.

Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

2010-12-01

The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological data to groundwater models but these models are only aimed at solving one specific part of the earth’s system, e.g. the flow of groundwater to an abstraction borehole or the availability of water for irrigation. Particular problems arise when model data from two or more disciplines are incompatible in terms of data formats, scientific concepts or language. Other barriers include the cultural segregation within and between science disciplines as well as impediments to data exchange due to ownership and copyright restrictions. OpenMI and GeoSciML are initiatives that are trying to overcome these barriers by building international communities that share vocabularies and data formats. This paper gives examples of the successful merging of geological and hydrological models from the UK and will introduce the vision of an open Environmental Modelling Platform which aims to link data, knowledge and concepts seamlessly to numerical process models. Last but not least there is an urgent need to create a Subsurface Information System akin to a Geographic Information System in which all results of subsurface modelling can be visualised and analysed in an integrated manner and thereby become useful for decision makers.

Neuronal differentiation and long-term culture of the human neuroblastoma line SH-SY5Y.

PubMed

Constantinescu, R; Constantinescu, A T; Reichmann, H; Janetzky, B

2007-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder in industrialized countries. Present cell culture models for PD rely on either primary cells or immortal cell lines, neither of which allow for long-term experiments on a constant population, a crucial requisite for a realistic model of slowly progressing neurodegenerative diseases. We differentiated SH-SY5Y human dopaminergic neuroblastoma cells to a neuronal-like state in a perfusion culture system using a combination of retinoic acid and mitotic inhibitors. The cells could be cultivated for two months without the need for passage. We show, by various means, that the differentiated cells exhibit, at the molecular level, many neuronal properties not characteristic to the starting line. This approach opens the possibility to develop chronic models, in which the effect of perturbations and putative counteracting strategies can be monitored over long periods of time in a quasi-stable cell population.

Forward vs. backwards selection for seed orchards and cooperative second-generation breeding in the US Pacific Northwest.

Treesearch

R. Johnson; K. Jayawickrama

2003-01-01

Gain from various orchard strategies were modeled. The scenario tested 2,000 first-generation open-pollinated families, from which orchards of 20 selections were formed, using either parents, progeny or both. This was followed by a second-generation breeding population in which 200 full-sib families were tested followed by a second-generation orchard of 20 selections....

Conformity does not perpetuate suboptimal traditions in a wild population of songbirds

PubMed Central

Aplin, Lucy M.; Sheldon, Ben C.; McElreath, Richard

2017-01-01

Social learning is important to the life history of many animals, helping individuals to acquire new adaptive behavior. However despite long-running debate, it remains an open question whether a reliance on social learning can also lead to mismatched or maladaptive behavior. In a previous study, we experimentally induced traditions for opening a bidirectional door puzzle box in replicate subpopulations of the great tit Parus major. Individuals were conformist social learners, resulting in stable cultural behaviors. Here, we vary the rewards gained by these techniques to ask to what extent established behaviors are flexible to changing conditions. When subpopulations with established foraging traditions for one technique were subjected to a reduced foraging payoff, 49% of birds switched their behavior to a higher-payoff foraging technique after only 14 days, with younger individuals showing a faster rate of change. We elucidated the decision-making process for each individual, using a mechanistic learning model to demonstrate that, perhaps surprisingly, this population-level change was achieved without significant asocial exploration and without any evidence for payoff-biased copying. Rather, by combining conformist social learning with payoff-sensitive individual reinforcement (updating of experience), individuals and populations could both acquire adaptive behavior and track environmental change. PMID:28739943

The plasmasheet H+ and O+ contribution on the storm time ring current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouikis, C.; Bingham, S.; Kistler, L. M.; Spence, H. E.; Gkioulidou, M.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Farrugia, C. J.

2015-12-01

The source population of the storm time ring current is the night side plasma sheet. We use Van Allen Probes and Cluster observations to determine the contribution of the convecting plasma sheet H+ and O+ particles in the storm time development of the ring current. Using the Volland-Stern model with a dipole magnetic field together with the identification of the observed energy cutoffs in the particle spectra, we specify the pressure contributed by H+ and O+ populations that are on open drift paths vs. the pressure contributed by the trapped populations, for different local times. We find that during the storm main phase most of the ring current pressure in the pre-midnight inner magnetosphere is contributed by particles on open drift paths that cause the development of a strong partial ring current that causes most of the main phase Dst drop. These particles can reach as deep as L~2 and their pressure compares to the local magnetic field pressure as deep as L~3. During the recovery phase, if these particles are not lost at the magnetopause, will become trapped and will contribute to the symmetric ring current.

Density estimation in a wolverine population using spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Magoun, Audrey J.; Gardner, Beth; Valkenbury, Patrick; Lowell, Richard E.; McKelvey, Kevin

2011-01-01

Classical closed-population capture-recapture models do not accommodate the spatial information inherent in encounter history data obtained from camera-trapping studies. As a result, individual heterogeneity in encounter probability is induced, and it is not possible to estimate density objectively because trap arrays do not have a well-defined sample area. We applied newly-developed, capture-recapture models that accommodate the spatial attribute inherent in capture-recapture data to a population of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Southeast Alaska in 2008. We used camera-trapping data collected from 37 cameras in a 2,140-km2 area of forested and open habitats largely enclosed by ocean and glacial icefields. We detected 21 unique individuals 115 times. Wolverines exhibited a strong positive trap response, with an increased tendency to revisit previously visited traps. Under the trap-response model, we estimated wolverine density at 9.7 individuals/1,000-km2(95% Bayesian CI: 5.9-15.0). Our model provides a formal statistical framework for estimating density from wolverine camera-trapping studies that accounts for a behavioral response due to baited traps. Further, our model-based estimator does not have strict requirements about the spatial configuration of traps or length of trapping sessions, providing considerable operational flexibility in the development of field studies.

Nonlinear Fano interferences in open quantum systems: An exactly solvable model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkelstein-Shapiro, Daniel; Calatayud, Monica; Atabek, Osman; Mujica, Vladimiro; Keller, Arne

2016-06-01

We obtain an explicit solution for the stationary-state populations of a dissipative Fano model, where a discrete excited state is coupled to a continuum set of states; both excited sets of states are reachable by photoexcitation from the ground state. The dissipative dynamic is described by a Liouville equation in Lindblad form and the field intensity can take arbitrary values within the model. We show that the population of the continuum states as a function of laser frequency can always be expressed as a Fano profile plus a Lorentzian function with effective parameters whose explicit expressions are given in the case of a closed system coupled to a bath as well as for the original Fano scattering framework. Although the solution is intricate, it can be elegantly expressed as a linear transformation of the kernel of a 4 ×4 matrix which has the meaning of an effective Liouvillian. We unveil key notable processes related to the optical nonlinearity and which had not been reported to date: electromagnetic-induced transparency, population inversions, power narrowing and broadening, as well as an effective reduction of the Fano asymmetry parameter.

Using open source data for flood risk mapping and management in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitley, Alison; Malloy, James; Chirouze, Manuel

2013-04-01

Whitley, A., Malloy, J. and Chirouze, M. Worldwide the frequency and severity of major natural disasters, particularly flooding, has increased. Concurrently, countries such as Brazil are experiencing rapid socio-economic development with growing and increasingly concentrated populations, particularly in urban areas. Hence, it is unsurprising that Brazil has experienced a number of major floods in the past 30 years such as the January 2011 floods which killed 900 people and resulted in significant economic losses of approximately 1 billion US dollars. Understanding, mitigating against and even preventing flood risk is high priority. There is a demand for flood models in many developing economies worldwide for a range of uses including risk management, emergency planning and provision of insurance solutions. However, developing them can be expensive. With an increasing supply of freely-available, open source data, the costs can be significantly reduced, making the tools required for natural hazard risk assessment more accessible. By presenting a flood model developed for eight urban areas of Brazil as part of a collaboration between JBA Risk Management and Guy Carpenter, we explore the value of open source data and demonstrate its usability in a business context within the insurance industry. We begin by detailing the open source data available and compare its suitability to commercially-available equivalents for datasets including digital terrain models and river gauge records. We present flood simulation outputs in order to demonstrate the impact of the choice of dataset on the results obtained and its use in a business context. Via use of the 2D hydraulic model JFlow+, our examples also show how advanced modelling techniques can be used on relatively crude datasets to obtain robust and good quality results. In combination with accessible, standard specification GPU technology and open source data, use of JFlow+ has enabled us to produce large-scale hazard maps suitable for business use and emergency planning such as those we show for Brazil.

Open access to an outpatient intravenous diuresis program in a systolic heart failure disease management program.

PubMed

Hebert, Kathy; Dias, Andre; Franco, Emiliana; Tamariz, Leonardo; Steen, Dylan; Arcement, Lee M

2011-01-01

In order to provide efficient utilization of resources in an outpatient setting for acute exacerbation of heart failure (HF), the authors piloted an open-access outpatient intravenous (IV) diuretic program (IVDP) to evaluate utilization in an HF disease management program (HFDMP), patient characteristics for users of the program, and safety. An outpatient HFDMP at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, Florida, enrolling 577 patients 18 years and older with an ejection fraction ≤40% was implemented. For symptoms or weight gain ≥5 pounds, patients were eligible to use an open-access IVDP during clinic hours. A total of 130 HFDM patients (22.5%) used the IVDP. IVDP users were more likely to be diabetic, with lower body mass indices than non-IVDP users. New York Heart Association class IV patients and previously hospitalized patients were more likely to use the IVDP. There were no documented adverse reactions for patients receiving treatment and no difference in mortality between groups. This open-access outpatient IVDP model for patients with HF was readily utilized by the HFDMP participants and appears safe for use in this population. This unique model may provide alternative access for acute HF treatment. Congest Heart Fail. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Approaches for the direct estimation of lambda, and demographic contributions to lambda, using capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.

2002-01-01

We first consider the estimation of the finite rate of population increase or population growth rate, u i , using capture-recapture data from open populations. We review estimation and modelling of u i under three main approaches to modelling openpopulation data: the classic approach of Jolly (1965) and Seber (1965), the superpopulation approach of Crosbie & Manly (1985) and Schwarz & Arnason (1996), and the temporal symmetry approach of Pradel (1996). Next, we consider the contributions of different demographic components to u i using a probabilistic approach based on the composition of the population at time i + 1 (Nichols et al., 2000b). The parameters of interest are identical to the seniority parameters, n i , of Pradel (1996). We review estimation of n i under the classic, superpopulation, and temporal symmetry approaches. We then compare these direct estimation approaches for u i and n i with analogues computed using projection matrix asymptotics. We also discuss various extensions of the estimation approaches to multistate applications and to joint likelihoods involving multiple data types.

Bacterial finite-size effects for population expansion under flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toschi, Federico; Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Brunsveld, Luc

2016-11-01

For organisms living in a liquid ecosystem, flow and flow gradients have a dual role as they transport nutrient while, at the same time, dispersing the individuals. In absence of flow and under homogeneous conditions, the growth of a population towards an empty region is usually described by a reaction-diffusion equation. The effect of fluid flow is not yet well understood and the interplay between transport of individuals and growth opens a wide scenario of possible behaviors. In this work, we study experimentally the dynamics of non-motile E. coli bacteria colonies spreading inside rectangular channels, in PDMS microfluidic devices. By use of a fluorescent microscope we analyze the dynamics of the population density subjected to different co- and counter-flow conditions and shear rates. A simple model incorporating growth, dispersion and drift of finite size beads is able to explain the experimental findings. This indicates that models based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation (FKPP) may have to be supplemented with bacterial finite-size effects in order to be able to accurately reproduce experimental results for population spatial growth.

Semivarying coefficient models for capture-recapture data: colony size estimation for the little penguin Eudyptula minor.

PubMed

Stoklosa, Jakub; Dann, Peter; Huggins, Richard

2014-09-01

To accommodate seasonal effects that change from year to year into models for the size of an open population we consider a time-varying coefficient model. We fit this model to a capture-recapture data set collected on the little penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia over a 25 year period using Jolly-Seber type estimators and nonparametric P-spline techniques. The time-varying coefficient model identified strong changes in the seasonal pattern across the years which we further examined using functional data analysis techniques. To evaluate the methodology we also conducted several simulation studies that incorporate seasonal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of new alternative providers of primary care services in England: an observational study

PubMed Central

Greaves, Felix; Laverty, Anthony A; Pape, Utz; Ratneswaren, Anenta; Majeed, Azeem

2015-01-01

Summary Objectives Health system reforms in England are opening broad areas of clinical practice to new providers of care. As part of these reforms, new entrants – including private companies – have been allowed into the primary care market under ‘alternative provider of medical services’ contracting mechanisms since 2004. The characteristics and performance of general practices working under new alternative provider contracts are not well described. We sought to compare the quality of care provided by new entrant providers to that provided by the traditional model of general practice. Design Open cohort study of English general practices. We used linear regression in cross-sectional and time series analyses, adjusting for practice and population characteristics, to compare quality in practices using alternative provider contracts to traditional practices. We created regression models using practice fixed effects to estimate the impact of practices changing to the new contract type. Setting The English National Health Service. Participants All general practices open from 2008/2009 to 2012/2013. Main outcome measures Seventeen established quality indicators – covering clinical effectiveness, efficiency, access and patient experience. Results In total, 4.1% (347 of 8300) of general practices in England were run by alternative contract providers. These practices tended to be smaller, and serve younger, more diverse and more deprived populations than traditional providers. Practices run by alternative providers performed worse than traditional providers on 15 of 17 indicators after adjusting for practice and population characteristics (p < 0.01 for all). Switching to a new alternative provider contract did not result in improved performance. Conclusions The introduction of new alternative providers to deliver primary care services in England has not led to improvements in quality and may have resulted in worse care. Regulators should ensure that new entrants to clinical provider markets are performing to adequate standards and at least as well as traditional providers. PMID:25908312

Performance of new alternative providers of primary care services in England: an observational study.

PubMed

Greaves, Felix; Laverty, Anthony A; Pape, Utz; Ratneswaren, Anenta; Majeed, Azeem; Millett, Christopher

2015-05-01

Health system reforms in England are opening broad areas of clinical practice to new providers of care. As part of these reforms, new entrants--including private companies--have been allowed into the primary care market under 'alternative provider of medical services' contracting mechanisms since 2004. The characteristics and performance of general practices working under new alternative provider contracts are not well described. We sought to compare the quality of care provided by new entrant providers to that provided by the traditional model of general practice. Open cohort study of English general practices. We used linear regression in cross-sectional and time series analyses, adjusting for practice and population characteristics, to compare quality in practices using alternative provider contracts to traditional practices. We created regression models using practice fixed effects to estimate the impact of practices changing to the new contract type. The English National Health Service. All general practices open from 2008/2009 to 2012/2013. Seventeen established quality indicators--covering clinical effectiveness, efficiency, access and patient experience. In total, 4.1% (347 of 8300) of general practices in England were run by alternative contract providers. These practices tended to be smaller, and serve younger, more diverse and more deprived populations than traditional providers. Practices run by alternative providers performed worse than traditional providers on 15 of 17 indicators after adjusting for practice and population characteristics (p < 0.01 for all). Switching to a new alternative provider contract did not result in improved performance. The introduction of new alternative providers to deliver primary care services in England has not led to improvements in quality and may have resulted in worse care. Regulators should ensure that new entrants to clinical provider markets are performing to adequate standards and at least as well as traditional providers. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Transition paths of Met-enkephalin from Markov state modeling of a molecular dynamics trajectory.

PubMed

Banerjee, Rahul; Cukier, Robert I

2014-03-20

Conformational states and their interconversion pathways of the zwitterionic form of the pentapeptide Met-enkephalin (MetEnk) are identified. An explicit solvent molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory is used to construct a Markov state model (MSM) based on dihedral space clustering of the trajectory, and transition path theory (TPT) is applied to identify pathways between open and closed conformers. In the MD trajectory, only four of the eight backbone dihedrals exhibit bistable behavior. Defining a conformer as the string XXXX with X = "+" or "-" denoting, respectively, positive or negative values of a given dihedral angle and obtaining the populations of these conformers shows that only four conformers are highly populated, implying a strong correlation among these dihedrals. Clustering in dihedral space to construct the MSM finds the same four bistable dihedral angles. These state populations are very similar to those found directly from the MD trajectory. TPT is used to obtain pathways, parametrized by committor values, in dihedral state space that are followed in transitioning from closed to open states. Pathway costs are estimated by introducing a kinetics-based procedure that orders pathways from least (shortest) to greater cost paths. The least costly pathways in dihedral space are found to only involve the same XXXX set of dihedral angles, and the conformers accessed in the closed to open transition pathways are identified. For these major pathways, a correlation between reaction path progress (committors) and the end-to-end distance is identified. A dihedral space principal component analysis of the MD trajectory shows that the first three modes capture most of the overall fluctuation, and pick out the same four dihedrals having essentially all the weight in those modes. A MSM based on root-mean-square backbone clustering was also carried out, with good agreement found with dihedral clustering for the static information, but with results that differ significantly for the pathway analysis.

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

PubMed

Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

PubMed Central

Sawaya, Michael A.; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Gibeau, Michael L.; Kalinowski, Steven T.

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains. PMID:22567089

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Models of red giants in the CoRoT asteroseismology fields combining asteroseismic and spectroscopic constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadège, Lagarde

The availability of asteroseismic constraints for a large sample of red-giant stars from the CoRoT and Kepler missions paves the way for various statistical studies of the seismic properties of stellar populations. We use a detailed spectroscopic study of 19 CoRoT red-giant stars (Morel et al. 2014) to compare theoretical stellar evolution models to observations of the open cluster NGC 6633 and field stars. This study is already published in Lagarde et al. (2015)

Atmospheric dispersion modelling over complex terrain at small scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nosek, S.; Janour, Z.; Kukacka, L.; Jurcakova, K.; Kellnerova, R.; Gulikova, E.

2014-03-01

Previous study concerned of qualitative modelling neutrally stratified flow over open-cut coal mine and important surrounding topography at meso-scale (1:9000) revealed an important area for quantitative modelling of atmospheric dispersion at small-scale (1:3300). The selected area includes a necessary part of the coal mine topography with respect to its future expansion and surrounding populated areas. At this small-scale simultaneous measurement of velocity components and concentrations in specified points of vertical and horizontal planes were performed by two-dimensional Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and Fast-Response Flame Ionization Detector (FFID), respectively. The impact of the complex terrain on passive pollutant dispersion with respect to the prevailing wind direction was observed and the prediction of the air quality at populated areas is discussed. The measured data will be used for comparison with another model taking into account the future coal mine transformation. Thus, the impact of coal mine transformation on pollutant dispersion can be observed.

A Large Stellar Evolution Database for Population Synthesis Studies. I. Scaled Solar Models and Isochrones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrinferni, Adriano; Cassisi, Santi; Salaris, Maurizio; Castelli, Fiorella

2004-09-01

We present a large and updated stellar evolution database for low-, intermediate-, and high-mass stars in a wide metallicity range, suitable for studying Galactic and extragalactic simple and composite stellar populations using population synthesis techniques. The stellar mass range is between ~0.5 and 10 Msolar with a fine mass spacing. The metallicity [Fe/H] comprises 10 values ranging from -2.27 to 0.40, with a scaled solar metal distribution. The initial He mass fraction ranges from Y=0.245, for the more metal-poor composition, up to 0.303 for the more metal-rich one, with ΔY/ΔZ~1.4. For each adopted chemical composition, the evolutionary models have been computed without (canonical models) and with overshooting from the Schwarzschild boundary of the convective cores during the central H-burning phase. Semiconvection is included in the treatment of core convection during the He-burning phase. The whole set of evolutionary models can be used to compute isochrones in a wide age range, from ~30 Myr to ~15 Gyr. Both evolutionary models and isochrones are available in several observational planes, employing an updated set of bolometric corrections and color-Teff relations computed for this project. The number of points along the models and the resulting isochrones is selected in such a way that interpolation for intermediate metallicities not contained in the grid is straightforward; a simple quadratic interpolation produces results of sufficient accuracy for population synthesis applications.We compare our isochrones with results from a series of widely used stellar evolution databases and perform some empirical tests for the reliability of our models. Since this work is devoted to scaled solar chemical compositions, we focus our attention on the Galactic disk stellar populations, employing multicolor photometry of unevolved field main-sequence stars with precise Hipparcos parallaxes, well-studied open clusters, and one eclipsing binary system with precise measurements of masses, radii, and [Fe/H] of both components. We find that the predicted metallicity dependence of the location of the lower, unevolved main sequence in the color magnitude diagram (CMD) appears in satisfactory agreement with empirical data. When comparing our models with CMDs of selected, well-studied, open clusters, once again we were able to properly match the whole observed evolutionary sequences by assuming cluster distance and reddening estimates in satisfactory agreement with empirical evaluations of these quantities. In general, models including overshooting during the H-burning phase provide a better match to the observations, at least for ages below ~4 Gyr. At [Fe/H] around solar and higher ages (i.e., smaller convective cores) before the onset of radiative cores, the selected efficiency of core overshooting may be too high in our model, as well as in various other models in the literature. Since we also provide canonical models, the reader is strongly encouraged to always compare the results from both sets in this critical age range.

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.

Building Better Planet Populations for EXOSIMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, Daniel; Savransky, Dmitry

2018-01-01

The Exoplanet Open-Source Imaging Mission Simulator (EXOSIMS) software package simulates ensembles of space-based direct imaging surveys to provide a variety of science and engineering yield distributions for proposed mission designs. These mission simulations rely heavily on assumed distributions of planetary population parameters including semi-major axis, planetary radius, eccentricity, albedo, and orbital orientation to provide heuristics for target selection and to simulate planetary systems for detection and characterization. The distributions are encoded in PlanetPopulation modules within EXOSIMS which are selected by the user in the input JSON script when a simulation is run. The earliest written PlanetPopulation modules available in EXOSIMS are based on planet population models where the planetary parameters are considered to be independent from one another. While independent parameters allow for quick computation of heuristics and sampling for simulated planetary systems, results from planet-finding surveys have shown that many parameters (e.g., semi-major axis/orbital period and planetary radius) are not independent. We present new PlanetPopulation modules for EXOSIMS which are built on models based on planet-finding survey results where semi-major axis and planetary radius are not independent and provide methods for sampling their joint distribution. These new modules enhance the ability of EXOSIMS to simulate realistic planetary systems and give more realistic science yield distributions.

Morphological and Color Differences between Island and Mainland Populations in the Mexican Red Rump Tarantula, Brachypelma vagans

PubMed Central

Vilchis-Nestor, Claudia A.; Machkour-M'Rabet, Salima; Barriga-Sosa, Irene de los A.; Winterton, Peter; Hénaut, Yann

2013-01-01

The introduction of species into new ecosystems, especially in small and isolated regions such as islands, offers an excellent opportunity to answer questions of the evolutionary processes occurring in natural conditions on a scale that could never be achieved in laboratory conditions. In this study, we examined the Mexican red rump tarantula Brachypelma vagans Ausserer (Mygalomorphae: Theraphosidae), a species that was introduced to Cozumel Island, Mexico, 40 years ago. This introduction provides an exceptional model to study effects such as morphological variation between island populations and those on the mainland in open habitats facing the island. Intraspecific variation related to the color polymorphism was compared. The aim of this study was to determine the phenotypic differences between continental populations of B. vagans and the introduced population on Cozumel Island. Phenotypic difference was evaluated using two approaches: 1) comparison of the morphometric measurements of adult and juvenile individuals at the local scale and between continental and island populations, and 2) comparison of individual color polymorphism between mainland and island populations. Two locations were sampled within the continental part of the Yucatan peninsula and two on the island of Cozumel. The number of samples analyzed at each site was 30 individuals. The morphometric results showed significant differences between continental and island populations, with bigger individuals on the island. In addition, three new variations of the typical color pattern of B. vagans recorded so far were observed. This study opens the door to further investigations to elucidate the origin of the phenotypic variation of the isolated individuals on Cozumel Island. Also, the widest range of color morphs found for a tarantula species is reported. PMID:24224805

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

2005-01-01

The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Mating systems of Cuphea laminuligera and Cuphea lutea.

PubMed

Krueger, S K; Knapp, S J

1991-08-01

In this paper, the mating systems of experimental populations of C. laminuligera and C. lutea are described. Outcrossing rates (t) were estimated for four populations of C. laminuligera and three populations of C. lutea using allozyme phenotypes of open-pollinated individual plant families. Populations were grown at densities of 1.0 × 1.0 m (low) and 0.04 × 0.3 m (high). Pollen and ovule frequencies and single locus and multilocus outcrossing rates were estimated for each population using the mixed-mating model. Multilocus estimates of t ranged from 0.83 to 0.98 and 1.00 to 1.01 for low and high density populations of C. laminuligera, respectively, and 0.17 to 0.26 and 0.36 to 0.54 for low and high density populations of C. lutea, respectively. C. laminuligera is predominantly allogamous; however, selfing rates as great as 17% were observed for this species. C. lutea is predominantly autogamous, but outcrossing rates as great as 54% were observed for this species. Outcrossing rates increased as density increased within C. lutea populations.

Quantitative inference of population response properties across eccentricity from motion-induced maps in macaque V1

PubMed Central

Chen, Ming; Wu, Si; Lu, Haidong D.; Roe, Anna W.

2013-01-01

Interpreting population responses in the primary visual cortex (V1) remains a challenge especially with the advent of techniques measuring activations of large cortical areas simultaneously with high precision. For successful interpretation, a quantitatively precise model prediction is of great importance. In this study, we investigate how accurate a spatiotemporal filter (STF) model predicts average response profiles to coherently drifting random dot motion obtained by optical imaging of intrinsic signals in V1 of anesthetized macaques. We establish that orientation difference maps, obtained by subtracting orthogonal axis-of-motion, invert with increasing drift speeds, consistent with the motion streak effect. Consistent with perception, the speed at which the map inverts (the critical speed) depends on cortical eccentricity and systematically increases from foveal to parafoveal. We report that critical speeds and response maps to drifting motion are excellently reproduced by the STF model. Our study thus suggests that the STF model is quantitatively accurate enough to be used as a first model of choice for interpreting responses obtained with intrinsic imaging methods in V1. We show further that this good quantitative correspondence opens the possibility to infer otherwise not easily accessible population receptive field properties from responses to complex stimuli, such as drifting random dot motions. PMID:23197457

Applied Actant Network Theory: Toward the Automated Detection of Technoscientific Emergence from Full Text Publications and Patents (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-02

Applied Actant-Network Theory: Toward the Automated Detection of Technoscientific Emergence from Full-Text Publications and Patents David C...Brock**, Olga Babko-Malaya*, James Pustejovsky***, Patrick Thomas****, *BAE Systems Advanced Information Technologies, ** David C. Brock Consulting... Wojick , D. 2008. Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields. Scientometrics, 75(3):495–518. Cook, T. D. and

Optical-bistability-enabled control of resonant light transmission for an atom-cavity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawant, Rahul; Rangwala, S. A.

2016-02-01

The control of light transmission through a standing-wave Fabry-Pérot cavity containing atoms is theoretically and numerically investigated, when the cavity mode beam and an intersecting control beam are both close to specific atomic resonances. A four-level atomic system is considered and its interaction with the cavity mode is studied by solving for the cavity field and atomic state populations. The conditions for optical bistability of the atom-cavity system are obtained. The response of the intracavity intensity to an intersecting beam on atomic resonance is understood in the presence of stationary atoms (closed system) and nonstatic atoms (open system) in the cavity. The nonstatic system of atoms is modelled by adjusting the atomic state populations to represent the exchange of atoms in the cavity mode, which corresponds to a thermal environment where atoms are moving in and out of the cavity mode volume. The control behavior with three- and two-level atomic systems is also studied, and the rich physics arising out of these systems for closed and open atomic systems is discussed. The solutions to the models are used to interpret the steady-state and transient behavior observed by Sharma et al. [Phys. Rev. A 91, 043824 (2015)], 10.1103/PhysRevA.91.043824.

The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

2014-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic Source Models • Ground Motion (Attenuation) Models • Physical Exposure Models • Physical Vulnerability Models • Composite Index Models (social vulnerability, resilience, indirect loss) • Repository of national hazard models • Uniform global hazard model Armed with these tools and databases, stakeholders worldwide will then be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Earthquake hazard information will be able to be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for risk assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a truly integrated view of seismic risk, users will be able to add social vulnerability and resilience indices and estimate the costs and benefits of different risk management measures. Having finished its first five-year Work Program at the end of 2013, GEM has entered into its second five-year Work Program 2014-2018. Beyond maintaining and enhancing the products developed in Work Program 1, the second phase will have a stronger focus on regional hazard and risk activities, and on seeing GEM products used for risk assessment and risk management practice at regional, national and local scales. Furthermore GEM intends to partner with similar initiatives underway for other natural perils, which together are needed to meet the need for advanced risk assessment methods, tools and data to underpin global disaster risk reduction efforts under the Hyogo Framework for Action #2 to be launched in Sendai/Japan in spring 2015

Neutral theory, microbial practice: challenges in bacterial population genetics.

PubMed

Rocha, Eduardo P C

2018-04-19

Kimura's outstanding contributions to population genetics included many elegant theoretical results on the vagaries of alleles in populations. Once polymorphism data showed extensive variation in natural populations, these results led naturally to the Neutral Theory. In this article, I'll depart from some of these results to focus on four major open problems in microbial population genetics with direct implications to the study of molecular evolution: the lack of neutral polymorphism, the modeling of genetic exchanges, the population genetics of ill-defined populations, and the difficulty of untangling selection and demography in the light of the previous issues. Whilst studies in population genetics usually focus on single nucleotide polymorphism and allelic recombination, ignoring even small indels, a large fraction of genetic diversification in Bacteria results from horizontal gene transfer. Ignoring this fact defeats the purpose of population genetics: to characterize the genetic variation in populations and their adaptive effects. I'll argue that, following on Kimura's life work, one may need to develop new approaches to study microbes that reproduce asexually but are able to engage in gene exchanges with very distantly related organisms in a context where random sampling is often unachievable, populations are ill-defined, genetic linkage is strong, and random drift is rare.

Using a web-based application to define the accuracy of diagnostic tests when the gold standard is imperfect.

PubMed

Lim, Cherry; Wannapinij, Prapass; White, Lisa; Day, Nicholas P J; Cooper, Ben S; Peacock, Sharon J; Limmathurotsakul, Direk

2013-01-01

Estimates of the sensitivity and specificity for new diagnostic tests based on evaluation against a known gold standard are imprecise when the accuracy of the gold standard is imperfect. Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) can be helpful under these circumstances, but the necessary analysis requires expertise in computational programming. Here, we describe open-access web-based applications that allow non-experts to apply Bayesian LCMs to their own data sets via a user-friendly interface. Applications for Bayesian LCMs were constructed on a web server using R and WinBUGS programs. The models provided (http://mice.tropmedres.ac) include two Bayesian LCMs: the two-tests in two-population model (Hui and Walter model) and the three-tests in one-population model (Walter and Irwig model). Both models are available with simplified and advanced interfaces. In the former, all settings for Bayesian statistics are fixed as defaults. Users input their data set into a table provided on the webpage. Disease prevalence and accuracy of diagnostic tests are then estimated using the Bayesian LCM, and provided on the web page within a few minutes. With the advanced interfaces, experienced researchers can modify all settings in the models as needed. These settings include correlation among diagnostic test results and prior distributions for all unknown parameters. The web pages provide worked examples with both models using the original data sets presented by Hui and Walter in 1980, and by Walter and Irwig in 1988. We also illustrate the utility of the advanced interface using the Walter and Irwig model on a data set from a recent melioidosis study. The results obtained from the web-based applications were comparable to those published previously. The newly developed web-based applications are open-access and provide an important new resource for researchers worldwide to evaluate new diagnostic tests.

Multiscale musculoskeletal modelling, data–model fusion and electromyography-informed modelling

PubMed Central

Zhang, J.; Heidlauf, T.; Sartori, M.; Besier, T.; Röhrle, O.; Lloyd, D.

2016-01-01

This paper proposes methods and technologies that advance the state of the art for modelling the musculoskeletal system across the spatial and temporal scales; and storing these using efficient ontologies and tools. We present population-based modelling as an efficient method to rapidly generate individual morphology from only a few measurements and to learn from the ever-increasing supply of imaging data available. We present multiscale methods for continuum muscle and bone models; and efficient mechanostatistical methods, both continuum and particle-based, to bridge the scales. Finally, we examine both the importance that muscles play in bone remodelling stimuli and the latest muscle force prediction methods that use electromyography-assisted modelling techniques to compute musculoskeletal forces that best reflect the underlying neuromuscular activity. Our proposal is that, in order to have a clinically relevant virtual physiological human, (i) bone and muscle mechanics must be considered together; (ii) models should be trained on population data to permit rapid generation and use underlying principal modes that describe both muscle patterns and morphology; and (iii) these tools need to be available in an open-source repository so that the scientific community may use, personalize and contribute to the database of models. PMID:27051510

keep your models up-to-date: connecting community mapping data to complex urban flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Eilander, Dirk; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Iliffe, Mark; Mawanda, Shaban; Luo, Tianyi; Kimacha, Nyambiri; Chen, Jorik

2017-04-01

The world is urbanizing rapidly. According to the United Nation's World Urbanization Prospect, 50% of the global population already lives in urban areas today. This number is expected to grow to 66% by 2050. The rapid changes in these urban environments go hand in hand with rapid changes in natural hazard risks, in particular in informal unplanned neighbourhoods. In Dar Es Salaam - Tanzania, flood risk dominates and given the rapid changes in the city, continuous updates of detailed street level hazard and risk mapping are needed to adequately support decision making for urban planning, infrastructure design and disaster response. Over the past years, the Ramani Huria and Zuia Mafuriko projects have mapped the most flood prone neighbourhoods, including roads, buildings, drainage and land use and contributed data to the open-source OpenStreetMap database. In this contribution, we will demonstrate how we mobilize these contributed data to establish dynamic flood models for Dar Es Salaam and keep these up-to-date by making a direct link between the data, and model schematization. The tools automatically establish a sound 1D drainage network as well as a high resolution terrain dataset, by fusing the OpenStreetMap data with existing lower resolution terrain data such as the globally available satellite based SRTM 30. It then translates these fully automatically into the inputs required for the D-HYDRO modeling suite. Our tools are built such that community and stakeholder knowledge can be included in the model details through workshops with the tools so that missing essential information about the city's details can be augmented on-the-fly. This process creates a continuous dialogue between members of the community that collect data, and stakeholders requiring data for flood models. Moreover, used taxonomy and data filtering can be configured to conditions in other cities, making the tools generic and scalable. The tools are made available open-source.

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits of different risk management measures. The following global data, models and methodologies will be available in the platform. Some of these will be released to the public already before, such as the ISC-GEM global instrumental catalogue (released January 2013). Datasets: • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Instrumental Catalogue [1900-2009] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerability Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators Models: • Seismic Source Models • Ground Motion (Attenuation) Models • Physical Exposure Models • Physical Vulnerability Models • Composite Index Models (social vulnerability, resilience, indirect loss) The aforementioned models developed under the GEM framework will be combined to produce estimates of hazard and risk at a global scale. Furthermore, building on many ongoing efforts and knowledge of scientists worldwide, GEM will integrate state-of-the-art data, models, results and open-source tools into a single platform that is to serve as a "clearinghouse" on seismic risk. The platform will continue to increase in value, in particular for use in local contexts, through contributions and collaborations with scientists and organisations worldwide.

Population genomics of C. melanopterus using target gene capture data: demographic inferences and conservation perspectives

PubMed Central

Maisano Delser, Pierpaolo; Corrigan, Shannon; Hale, Matthew; Li, Chenhong; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge; Naylor, Gavin; Mona, Stefano

2016-01-01

Population genetics studies on non-model organisms typically involve sampling few markers from multiple individuals. Next-generation sequencing approaches open up the possibility of sampling many more markers from fewer individuals to address the same questions. Here, we applied a target gene capture method to deep sequence ~1000 independent autosomal regions of a non-model organism, the blacktip reef shark (Carcharhinus melanopterus). We devised a sampling scheme based on the predictions of theoretical studies of metapopulations to show that sampling few individuals, but many loci, can be extremely informative to reconstruct the evolutionary history of species. We collected data from a single deme (SID) from Northern Australia and from a scattered sampling representing various locations throughout the Indian Ocean (SCD). We explored the genealogical signature of population dynamics detected from both sampling schemes using an ABC algorithm. We then contrasted these results with those obtained by fitting the data to a non-equilibrium finite island model. Both approaches supported an Nm value ~40, consistent with philopatry in this species. Finally, we demonstrate through simulation that metapopulations exhibit greater resilience to recent changes in effective size compared to unstructured populations. We propose an empirical approach to detect recent bottlenecks based on our sampling scheme. PMID:27651217

Population genomics of C. melanopterus using target gene capture data: demographic inferences and conservation perspectives.

PubMed

Maisano Delser, Pierpaolo; Corrigan, Shannon; Hale, Matthew; Li, Chenhong; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge; Naylor, Gavin; Mona, Stefano

2016-09-21

Population genetics studies on non-model organisms typically involve sampling few markers from multiple individuals. Next-generation sequencing approaches open up the possibility of sampling many more markers from fewer individuals to address the same questions. Here, we applied a target gene capture method to deep sequence ~1000 independent autosomal regions of a non-model organism, the blacktip reef shark (Carcharhinus melanopterus). We devised a sampling scheme based on the predictions of theoretical studies of metapopulations to show that sampling few individuals, but many loci, can be extremely informative to reconstruct the evolutionary history of species. We collected data from a single deme (SID) from Northern Australia and from a scattered sampling representing various locations throughout the Indian Ocean (SCD). We explored the genealogical signature of population dynamics detected from both sampling schemes using an ABC algorithm. We then contrasted these results with those obtained by fitting the data to a non-equilibrium finite island model. Both approaches supported an Nm value ~40, consistent with philopatry in this species. Finally, we demonstrate through simulation that metapopulations exhibit greater resilience to recent changes in effective size compared to unstructured populations. We propose an empirical approach to detect recent bottlenecks based on our sampling scheme.

Population inversion in monolayer and bilayer graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierz, Isabella; Mitrano, Matteo; Petersen, Jesse C.; Cacho, Cephise; Turcu, I. C. Edmond; Springate, Emma; Stöhr, Alexander; Köhler, Axel; Starke, Ulrich; Cavalleri, Andrea

2015-04-01

The recent demonstration of saturable absorption and negative optical conductivity in the Terahertz range in graphene has opened up new opportunities for optoelectronic applications based on this and other low dimensional materials. Recently, population inversion across the Dirac point has been observed directly by time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (tr-ARPES), revealing a relaxation time of only ∼130 femtoseconds. This severely limits the applicability of single layer graphene to, for example, Terahertz light amplification. Here we use tr-ARPES to demonstrate long-lived population inversion in bilayer graphene. The effect is attributed to the small band gap found in this compound. We propose a microscopic model for these observations and speculate that an enhancement of both the pump photon energy and the pump fluence may further increase this lifetime.

Magnetopause modeling - Flux transfer events and magnetosheath quasi-trapped distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speiser, T. W.; Williams, D. J.

1982-01-01

Three-dimensional distribution functions for energetic ions are studied numerically in the magnetosphere, through the magnetopause, and in the magnetosheath using a simple one-dimensional quasi-static model and ISEE 1 magnetopause crossing data for November 10, 1977. Quasi-trapped populations in the magnetosheath observed near flux transfer events (FTEs) are investigated, and it is shown that the population in the sheath appears to sandwich the FTE distributions. These quasi-trapped distributions are due to slow, large pitch angle, outward moving particles left behind by the outward rush of the ions more field-aligned at the time the flux was opened. It is found that sheath convective flows can map along the connected flux tube without drastically changing the distribution function, and results suggest that localized tangential fields above the upper limit may exist.

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

PubMed Central

Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

2013-01-01

Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

2013-01-01

Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

Quantifying T Lymphocyte Turnover

PubMed Central

De Boer, Rob J.; Perelson, Alan S.

2013-01-01

Peripheral T cell populations are maintained by production of naive T cells in the thymus, clonal expansion of activated cells, cellular self-renewal (or homeostatic proliferation), and density dependent cell life spans. A variety of experimental techniques have been employed to quantify the relative contributions of these processes. In modern studies lymphocytes are typically labeled with 5-bromo-2′-deoxyuridine (BrdU), deuterium, or the fluorescent dye carboxy-fluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFSE), their division history has been studied by monitoring telomere shortening and the dilution of T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs) or the dye CFSE, and clonal expansion has been documented by recording changes in the population densities of antigen specific cells. Proper interpretation of such data in terms of the underlying rates of T cell production, division, and death has proven to be notoriously difficult and involves mathematical modeling. We review the various models that have been developed for each of these techniques, discuss which models seem most appropriate for what type of data, reveal open problems that require better models, and pinpoint how the assumptions underlying a mathematical model may influence the interpretation of data. Elaborating various successful cases where modeling has delivered new insights in T cell population dynamics, this review provides quantitative estimates of several processes involved in the maintenance of naive and memory, CD4+ and CD8+ T cell pools in mice and men. PMID:23313150

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Joshua H.; Johnson, Devin S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnson, Devin S; Lindberg, Mark S; Adams, Layne G

2015-10-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark-resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Formation of Planetary Populations I: Metallicity & Envelope Opacity Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessi, Matthew; Pudritz, Ralph E.

2018-05-01

We present a comprehensive body of simulations of the formation of exoplanetary populations that incorporate the role of planet traps in slowing planetary migration. The traps we include in our model are the water ice line, the disk heat transition, and the dead zone outer edge. We reduce our model parameter set to two physical parameters: the opacity of the accreting planetary atmospheres (κenv) and a measure of the efficiency of planetary accretion after gap opening (fmax). We perform planet population synthesis calculations based on the initial observed distributions of host star and disk properties - their disk masses, lifetimes, and stellar metallicities. We find the frequency of giant planet formation scales with disk metallicity, in agreement with the observed Jovian planet frequency-metallicity relation. We consider both X-ray and cosmic ray disk ionization models, whose differing ionization rates lead to different dead zone trap locations. In both cases, Jovian planets form in our model out to 2-3 AU, with a distribution at smaller radii dependent on the disk ionization source and the setting of envelope opacity. We find that low values of κenv (0.001-0.002 cm2 g-1) and X-ray disk ionization are necessary to obtain a separation between hot Jupiters near 0.1 AU, and warm Jupiters outside 0.6 AU, a feature present in the data. Our model also produces a large number of super Earths, but the majority are outside of 2 AU. As our model assumes a constant dust to gas ratio, we suggest that radial dust evolution must be taken into account to reproduce the observed super Earth population.

Directional selection effects on patterns of phenotypic (co)variation in wild populations

PubMed Central

Patton, J. L.; Hubbe, A.; Marroig, G.

2016-01-01

Phenotypic (co)variation is a prerequisite for evolutionary change, and understanding how (co)variation evolves is of crucial importance to the biological sciences. Theoretical models predict that under directional selection, phenotypic (co)variation should evolve in step with the underlying adaptive landscape, increasing the degree of correlation among co-selected traits as well as the amount of genetic variance in the direction of selection. Whether either of these outcomes occurs in natural populations is an open question and thus an important gap in evolutionary theory. Here, we documented changes in the phenotypic (co)variation structure in two separate natural populations in each of two chipmunk species (Tamias alpinus and T. speciosus) undergoing directional selection. In populations where selection was strongest (those of T. alpinus), we observed changes, at least for one population, in phenotypic (co)variation that matched theoretical expectations, namely an increase of both phenotypic integration and (co)variance in the direction of selection and a re-alignment of the major axis of variation with the selection gradient. PMID:27881744

"I need to hear from women who have 'been there'": Developing a woman-focused intervention for drug use and partner violence in the emergency department.

PubMed

Choo, Esther; Guthrie, K Morrow; Mello, Michael; Wetle, Terrie F; Ranney, Megan; Tapé, Chantal; Zlotnick, Caron

2016-04-01

Addressing violence and linking women to community services in parallel with drug change goals is critical for women with coexisting intimate partner violence (IPV) and substance use disorders (SUD). Our objective was to develop a Web-based intervention to address violence and drug use among women patients in the ED. The intervention was developed in a five-step process: 1) Initial intervention development based on selected theoretical frameworks; 2) In-depth interviews with the target population; 3) Intervention adaptation, with iterative feedback from further interviews; 4) Beta testing and review by an advisory committee of domestic violence advocates; 5) Acceptability and feasibility testing in a small open trial. Themes supported the selection of MI and empowerment models but also guided major adaptations to the intervention, including the introduction of videos and a more robust booster phone call. Participants in the open trial reported high scores for satisfaction, usability, and consistency with essential elements of motivational interviewing. This qualitative work with our target population of women in the ED with SUD experiencing IPV underscored the importance of connection to peers and empathetic human contact. We developed an acceptable and feasible intervention distinct from prior ED-based brief interventions for substance-using populations.

Openness to experience is related to better memory ability in older adults with questionable dementia.

PubMed

Terry, Douglas P; Puente, Antonio N; Brown, Courtney L; Faraco, Carlos C; Miller, L Stephen

2013-01-01

The personality traits Openness to experience and Neuroticism of the five-factor model have previously been associated with memory performance in nondemented older adults, but this relationship has not been investigated in samples with memory impairment. Our examination of 50 community-dwelling older adults (29 cognitively intact; 21 with questionable dementia as determined by the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale) showed that demographic variables (age, years of education, gender, and estimated premorbid IQ) and current depressive symptoms explained a significant amount of variance of Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Status Delayed Memory (adjusted R (2) = 0.23). After controlling for these variables, a measure of global cognitive status further explained a significant portion of variance in memory performance (ΔR(2) = 0.13; adjusted R(2) = 0.36; p < .01). Finally, adding Openness to this hierarchical linear regression model explained a significant additional portion of variance (ΔR(2) = 0.08; adjusted R(2) = 0.44; p < .01) but adding Neuroticism did not explain any additional variance. This significant relationship between Openness and better memory performance above and beyond one's cognitive status and demographic variables may suggest that a lifelong pattern of involvement in new cognitive activities could be preserved in old age or protect from memory decline. This study suggests that personality may be a powerful predictor of memory ability and clinically useful in this heterogeneous population.

EmpiriciSN: Re-sampling Observed Supernova/Host Galaxy Populations Using an XD Gaussian Mixture Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holoien, Thomas W.-S.; Marshall, Philip J.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-06-01

We describe two new open-source tools written in Python for performing extreme deconvolution Gaussian mixture modeling (XDGMM) and using a conditioned model to re-sample observed supernova and host galaxy populations. XDGMM is new program that uses Gaussian mixtures to perform density estimation of noisy data using extreme deconvolution (XD) algorithms. Additionally, it has functionality not available in other XD tools. It allows the user to select between the AstroML and Bovy et al. fitting methods and is compatible with scikit-learn machine learning algorithms. Most crucially, it allows the user to condition a model based on the known values of a subset of parameters. This gives the user the ability to produce a tool that can predict unknown parameters based on a model that is conditioned on known values of other parameters. EmpiriciSN is an exemplary application of this functionality, which can be used to fit an XDGMM model to observed supernova/host data sets and predict likely supernova parameters using a model conditioned on observed host properties. It is primarily intended to simulate realistic supernovae for LSST data simulations based on empirical galaxy properties.

EmpiriciSN: Re-sampling Observed Supernova/Host Galaxy Populations Using an XD Gaussian Mixture Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holoien, Thomas W. -S.; Marshall, Philip J.; Wechsler, Risa H.

We describe two new open-source tools written in Python for performing extreme deconvolution Gaussian mixture modeling (XDGMM) and using a conditioned model to re-sample observed supernova and host galaxy populations. XDGMM is new program that uses Gaussian mixtures to perform density estimation of noisy data using extreme deconvolution (XD) algorithms. Additionally, it has functionality not available in other XD tools. It allows the user to select between the AstroML and Bovy et al. fitting methods and is compatible with scikit-learn machine learning algorithms. Most crucially, it allows the user to condition a model based on the known values of amore » subset of parameters. This gives the user the ability to produce a tool that can predict unknown parameters based on a model that is conditioned on known values of other parameters. EmpiriciSN is an exemplary application of this functionality, which can be used to fit an XDGMM model to observed supernova/host data sets and predict likely supernova parameters using a model conditioned on observed host properties. It is primarily intended to simulate realistic supernovae for LSST data simulations based on empirical galaxy properties.« less

Realized population change for long-term monitoring: California spotted owl case study

Treesearch

Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Gretchen Jehle; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee; Ross A. Gerrard

2013-01-01

The annual rate of population change (λt) is a good metric for evaluating population performance because it summarizes survival and recruitment rates and can be used for open populations. Another measure of population performance, realized population change (Δt...

Management of shoulder instability in a military population.

PubMed

Pimple, M K; DaCosta, A; Clasper, J C

2008-03-01

Recurrent instability is common after shoulder dislocation in the young, particularly those engaged in physical jobs or sport. The management of recurrent traumatic shoulder instability is predominantly operative. However, the best method of surgery i.e. open or arthroscopic is still a matter of debate. We have developed an algorithm to decide on the choice of surgery and the aim of this study is to report this and compare the two different groups of military patients. A retrospective review of all shoulder stabilisations performed on military personnel, by a single surgeon, between August 2004 and August 2005 at a district general hospital serving both military and civilian population was undertaken. The presentation, clinical and operative findings were noted and compared in the groups treated by arthroscopic or open stabilisation. Using our protocol 39 shoulder stabilisations were performed in military personnel. Of the shoulders, 25 (64%) underwent arthroscopic and 14 (36%) underwent open stabilisation. The indication for surgery was more than 2 episodes of shoulder dislocation. Open surgery was found to be more common in those who had their first dislocation at a younger age. Bilateral shoulder laxity was the most common indication to choose the open method. Both open and arthroscopic stabilisation gave good results in the high demand military population. Only one patient had recurrent instability after arthroscopic procedure. However, this was not statistically significant when compared with open stabilisation.

Day occupation is associated with psychopathology for adolescents and young adults with Down syndrome.

PubMed

Foley, Kitty-Rose; Jacoby, Peter; Einfeld, Stewart; Girdler, Sonya; Bourke, Jenny; Riches, Vivienne; Leonard, Helen

2014-10-03

Young adults with Down syndrome experience increased rates of emotional and behavioural problems compared with the general population. Most adolescents with Down syndrome living in Western Australia participate in sheltered employment as their main day occupation. Relationship between day occupation and changes in behaviour has not been examined. Therefore, the aim of this research was to explore any relationship between post school day occupations and changes in the young person's behaviour. The Down syndrome Needs Opinion Wishes database was used for case ascertainment of young adults aged 15 to 32 years with Down syndrome. Families of 118 young people in this population-based database completed questionnaires in 2004, 2009 and 2011. The questionnaires addressed both young person characteristics such as age, gender, presence of impairments, behaviour, functioning in activities of daily living, and family characteristics such as income and family functioning. Post-school day occupations in which the young people were participating included open and sheltered employment, training and day recreation programs. Change in behaviour of young adults who remained in the same post-school day occupation from 2009 to 2011 (n = 103) were examined in a linear regression model adjusting for confounding variables including age, gender, prior functioning and behaviour in 2004 and family income. In comparison to those young adults attending open employment from 2009 to 2011, those attending day recreation programs were reported to experience worsening in behaviour both in the unadjusted (effect size -0.14, 95% CI -0.24, -0.05) and adjusted models (effect size -0.15, 95% CI -0.29, -0.01). We found that the behaviour of those participating in open employment improved compared to those attending other day occupations. Further examination of the direction of this association is required.

Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

Using Approximate Bayesian Computation to Probe Multiple Transiting Planet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morehead, Robert C.

2015-08-01

The large number of multiple transiting planet systems (MTPS) uncovered with Kepler suggest a population of well-aligned planetary systems. Previously, the distribution of transit duration ratios in MTPSs has been used to place constraints on the distributions of mutual orbital inclinations and orbital eccentricities in these systems. However, degeneracies with the underlying number of planets in these systems pose added challenges and make explicit likelihood functions intractable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) offers an intriguing path forward. In its simplest form, ABC proposes from a prior on the population parameters to produce synthetic datasets via a physically-motivated model. Samples are accepted or rejected based on how close they come to reproducing the actual observed dataset to some tolerance. The accepted samples then form a robust and useful approximation of the true posterior distribution of the underlying population parameters. We will demonstrate the utility of ABC in exoplanet populations by presenting new constraints on the mutual inclination and eccentricity distributions in the Kepler MTPSs. We will also introduce Simple-ABC, a new open-source Python package designed for ease of use and rapid specification of general models, suitable for use in a wide variety of applications in both exoplanet science and astrophysics as a whole.

Integrated surface and groundwater modelling in the Thames Basin, UK using the Open Modelling Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Jonathan; Abesser, Corinna; Hughes, Andrew; Jackson, Chris; Kingdon, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; Williams, Ann

2013-04-01

The River Thames catchment is situated in the south-east of England. It covers approximately 16,000 km2 and is the most heavily populated river basin in the UK. It is also one of the driest and has experienced severe drought events in the recent past. With the onset of climate change and human exploitation of our environment, there are now serious concerns over the sustainability of water resources in this basin with 6 million m3 consumed every day for public water supply alone. Groundwater in the Thames basin is extremely important, providing 40% of water for public supply. The principal aquifer is the Chalk, a dual permeability limestone, which has been extensively studied to understand its hydraulic properties. The fractured Jurassic limestone in the upper catchment also forms an important aquifer, supporting baseflow downstream during periods of drought. These aquifers are unconnected other than through the River Thames and its tributaries, which provide two-thirds of London's drinking water. Therefore, to manage these water resources sustainably and to make robust projections into the future, surface and groundwater processes must be considered in combination. This necessitates the simulation of the feedbacks and complex interactions between different parts of the water cycle, and the development of integrated environmental models. The Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) standard provides a method through which environmental models of varying complexity and structure can be linked, allowing them to run simultaneously and exchange data at each timestep. This architecture has allowed us to represent the surface and subsurface flow processes within the Thames basin at an appropriate level of complexity based on our understanding of particular hydrological processes and features. We have developed a hydrological model in OpenMI which integrates a process-driven, gridded finite difference groundwater model of the Chalk with a more simplistic, semi-distributed conceptual model of the Jurassic limestone. A distributed river routing model of the Thames has also been integrated to connect the surface and subsurface hydrological processes. This application demonstrates the potential benefits and issues associated with implementing this approach.

Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

2017-01-01

Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

Fluid and mass transport modelling to drive the design of cell-packed hollow fibre bioreactors for tissue engineering applications.

PubMed

Shipley, Rebecca J; Waters, Sarah L

2012-12-01

A model for fluid and mass transport in a single module of a tissue engineering hollow fibre bioreactor (HFB) is developed. Cells are seeded in alginate throughout the extra-capillary space (ECS), and fluid is pumped through a central lumen to feed the cells and remove waste products. Fluid transport is described using Navier-Stokes or Darcy equations as appropriate; this is overlaid with models of mass transport in the form of advection-diffusion-reaction equations that describe the distribution and uptake/production of nutrients/waste products. The small aspect ratio of a module is exploited and the option of opening an ECS port is explored. By proceeding analytically, operating equations are determined that enable a tissue engineer to prescribe the geometry and operation of the HFB by ensuring the nutrient and waste product concentrations are consistent with a functional cell population. Finally, results for chondrocyte and cardiomyocyte cell populations are presented, typifying two extremes of oxygen uptake rates.

Open data set of live cyanobacterial cells imaged using an X-ray laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schot, Gijs; Svenda, Martin; Maia, Filipe R. N. C.; Hantke, Max F.; Deponte, Daniel P.; Seibert, M. Marvin; Aquila, Andrew; Schulz, Joachim; Kirian, Richard A.; Liang, Mengning; Stellato, Francesco; Bari, Sadia; Iwan, Bianca; Andreasson, Jakob; Timneanu, Nicusor; Bielecki, Johan; Westphal, Daniel; Nunes de Almeida, Francisca; Odić, Duško; Hasse, Dirk; Carlsson, Gunilla H.; Larsson, Daniel S. D.; Barty, Anton; Martin, Andrew V.; Schorb, Sebastian; Bostedt, Christoph; Bozek, John D.; Carron, Sebastian; Ferguson, Ken; Rolles, Daniel; Rudenko, Artem; Epp, Sascha W.; Foucar, Lutz; Rudek, Benedikt; Erk, Benjamin; Hartmann, Robert; Kimmel, Nils; Holl, Peter; Englert, Lars; Loh, N. Duane; Chapman, Henry N.; Andersson, Inger; Hajdu, Janos; Ekeberg, Tomas

2016-08-01

Structural studies on living cells by conventional methods are limited to low resolution because radiation damage kills cells long before the necessary dose for high resolution can be delivered. X-ray free-electron lasers circumvent this problem by outrunning key damage processes with an ultra-short and extremely bright coherent X-ray pulse. Diffraction-before-destruction experiments provide high-resolution data from cells that are alive when the femtosecond X-ray pulse traverses the sample. This paper presents two data sets from micron-sized cyanobacteria obtained at the Linac Coherent Light Source, containing a total of 199,000 diffraction patterns. Utilizing this type of diffraction data will require the development of new analysis methods and algorithms for studying structure and structural variability in large populations of cells and to create abstract models. Such studies will allow us to understand living cells and populations of cells in new ways. New X-ray lasers, like the European XFEL, will produce billions of pulses per day, and could open new areas in structural sciences.

Open data set of live cyanobacterial cells imaged using an X-ray laser.

PubMed

van der Schot, Gijs; Svenda, Martin; Maia, Filipe R N C; Hantke, Max F; DePonte, Daniel P; Seibert, M Marvin; Aquila, Andrew; Schulz, Joachim; Kirian, Richard A; Liang, Mengning; Stellato, Francesco; Bari, Sadia; Iwan, Bianca; Andreasson, Jakob; Timneanu, Nicusor; Bielecki, Johan; Westphal, Daniel; Nunes de Almeida, Francisca; Odić, Duško; Hasse, Dirk; Carlsson, Gunilla H; Larsson, Daniel S D; Barty, Anton; Martin, Andrew V; Schorb, Sebastian; Bostedt, Christoph; Bozek, John D; Carron, Sebastian; Ferguson, Ken; Rolles, Daniel; Rudenko, Artem; Epp, Sascha W; Foucar, Lutz; Rudek, Benedikt; Erk, Benjamin; Hartmann, Robert; Kimmel, Nils; Holl, Peter; Englert, Lars; Loh, N Duane; Chapman, Henry N; Andersson, Inger; Hajdu, Janos; Ekeberg, Tomas

2016-08-01

Structural studies on living cells by conventional methods are limited to low resolution because radiation damage kills cells long before the necessary dose for high resolution can be delivered. X-ray free-electron lasers circumvent this problem by outrunning key damage processes with an ultra-short and extremely bright coherent X-ray pulse. Diffraction-before-destruction experiments provide high-resolution data from cells that are alive when the femtosecond X-ray pulse traverses the sample. This paper presents two data sets from micron-sized cyanobacteria obtained at the Linac Coherent Light Source, containing a total of 199,000 diffraction patterns. Utilizing this type of diffraction data will require the development of new analysis methods and algorithms for studying structure and structural variability in large populations of cells and to create abstract models. Such studies will allow us to understand living cells and populations of cells in new ways. New X-ray lasers, like the European XFEL, will produce billions of pulses per day, and could open new areas in structural sciences.

Open data set of live cyanobacterial cells imaged using an X-ray laser

PubMed Central

van der Schot, Gijs; Svenda, Martin; Maia, Filipe R.N.C.; Hantke, Max F.; DePonte, Daniel P.; Seibert, M. Marvin; Aquila, Andrew; Schulz, Joachim; Kirian, Richard A.; Liang, Mengning; Stellato, Francesco; Bari, Sadia; Iwan, Bianca; Andreasson, Jakob; Timneanu, Nicusor; Bielecki, Johan; Westphal, Daniel; Nunes de Almeida, Francisca; Odić, Duško; Hasse, Dirk; Carlsson, Gunilla H.; Larsson, Daniel S.D.; Barty, Anton; Martin, Andrew V.; Schorb, Sebastian; Bostedt, Christoph; Bozek, John D.; Carron, Sebastian; Ferguson, Ken; Rolles, Daniel; Rudenko, Artem; Epp, Sascha W.; Foucar, Lutz; Rudek, Benedikt; Erk, Benjamin; Hartmann, Robert; Kimmel, Nils; Holl, Peter; Englert, Lars; Loh, N. Duane; Chapman, Henry N.; Andersson, Inger; Hajdu, Janos; Ekeberg, Tomas

2016-01-01

Structural studies on living cells by conventional methods are limited to low resolution because radiation damage kills cells long before the necessary dose for high resolution can be delivered. X-ray free-electron lasers circumvent this problem by outrunning key damage processes with an ultra-short and extremely bright coherent X-ray pulse. Diffraction-before-destruction experiments provide high-resolution data from cells that are alive when the femtosecond X-ray pulse traverses the sample. This paper presents two data sets from micron-sized cyanobacteria obtained at the Linac Coherent Light Source, containing a total of 199,000 diffraction patterns. Utilizing this type of diffraction data will require the development of new analysis methods and algorithms for studying structure and structural variability in large populations of cells and to create abstract models. Such studies will allow us to understand living cells and populations of cells in new ways. New X-ray lasers, like the European XFEL, will produce billions of pulses per day, and could open new areas in structural sciences. PMID:27479514

The first Neanderthal remains from an open-air Middle Palaeolithic site in the Levant.

PubMed

Been, Ella; Hovers, Erella; Ekshtain, Ravid; Malinski-Buller, Ariel; Agha, Nuha; Barash, Alon; Mayer, Daniella E Bar-Yosef; Benazzi, Stefano; Hublin, Jean-Jacques; Levin, Lihi; Greenbaum, Noam; Mitki, Netta; Oxilia, Gregorio; Porat, Naomi; Roskin, Joel; Soudack, Michalle; Yeshurun, Reuven; Shahack-Gross, Ruth; Nir, Nadav; Stahlschmidt, Mareike C; Rak, Yoel; Barzilai, Omry

2017-06-07

The late Middle Palaeolithic (MP) settlement patterns in the Levant included the repeated use of caves and open landscape sites. The fossil record shows that two types of hominins occupied the region during this period-Neandertals and Homo sapiens. Until recently, diagnostic fossil remains were found only at cave sites. Because the two populations in this region left similar material cultural remains, it was impossible to attribute any open-air site to either species. In this study, we present newly discovered fossil remains from intact archaeological layers of the open-air site 'Ein Qashish, in northern Israel. The hominin remains represent three individuals: EQH1, a nondiagnostic skull fragment; EQH2, an upper right third molar (RM 3 ); and EQH3, lower limb bones of a young Neandertal male. EQH2 and EQH3 constitute the first diagnostic anatomical remains of Neandertals at an open-air site in the Levant. The optically stimulated luminescence ages suggest that Neandertals repeatedly visited 'Ein Qashish between 70 and 60 ka. The discovery of Neandertals at open-air sites during the late MP reinforces the view that Neandertals were a resilient population in the Levant shortly before Upper Palaeolithic Homo sapiens populated the region.

AquaCrop-OS: A tool for resilient management of land and water resources in agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Timothy; Brozovic, Nicholas; Butler, Adrian P.; Neale, Christopher M. U.; Raes, Dirk; Steduto, Pasquale; Fereres, Elias; Hsiao, Theodore C.

2017-04-01

Water managers, researchers, and other decision makers worldwide are faced with the challenge of increasing food production under population growth, drought, and rising water scarcity. Crop simulation models are valuable tools in this effort, and, importantly, provide a means of quantifying rapidly crop yield response to water, climate, and field management practices. Here, we introduce a new open-source crop modelling tool called AquaCrop-OS (Foster et al., 2017), which extends the functionality of the globally used FAO AquaCrop model. Through case studies focused on groundwater-fed irrigation in the High Plains and Central Valley of California in the United States, we demonstrate how AquaCrop-OS can be used to understand the local biophysical, behavioural, and institutional drivers of water risks in agricultural production. Furthermore, we also illustrate how AquaCrop-OS can be combined effectively with hydrologic and economic models to support drought risk mitigation and decision-making around water resource management at a range of spatial and temporal scales, and highlight future plans for model development and training. T. Foster, et al. (2017) AquaCrop-OS: An open source version of FAO's crop water productivity model. Agricultural Water Management. 181: 18-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.015.

Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins.

PubMed

Fearnbach, H; Durban, J; Parsons, K; Claridge, D

2012-07-01

Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.

The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

PubMed Central

Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

2010-01-01

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

IMa2p - Parallel MCMC and inference of ancient demography under the Isolation with Migration (IM) model

PubMed Central

Sethuraman, Arun; Hey, Jody

2015-01-01

IMa2 and related programs are used to study the divergence of closely related species and of populations within species. These methods are based on the sampling of genealogies using MCMC, and they can proceed quite slowly for larger data sets. We describe a parallel implementation, called IMa2p, that provides a nearly linear increase in genealogy sampling rate with the number of processors in use. IMa2p is written in OpenMPI and C++, and scales well for demographic analyses of a large number of loci and populations, which are difficult to study using the serial version of the program. PMID:26059786

A Comparison of Interaction Patterns in an Open Space and a Fixed Plan School. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery County School System, Christiansburg, VA.

This study investigates interaction patterns that occur in an open plan and in a traditional plan school. The objectives of the study were: (1) to investigate some interaction patterns among members of the school populations, (2) to investigate some interaction patterns between the school population and the available physical resources, (3) to…

Long-Term Adjustment after Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ai, A. L.; Ladd, K. L.; Peterson, C.; Cook, C. A.; Shearer, M.; Koenig, H. G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when…

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

[Morphogenetic lability of reproductive structures in Ruppia maritima (Ruppiaceae, Alismatales): from two lateral flowers to a terminal flower].

PubMed

Lokk, I É; Sokolov, D D; Remizova, M V

2011-01-01

Flowers of Ruppia are normally arranged into an open two-flowered spike, but sometimes the two lateral flowers are congenitally united with each other and form a terminal flower-like structure. This developmental abnormality resembles those described in well-investigated mutants of model organisms of developmental genetics such as Arabidopsis Antirrhinum. A study of Ruppia allows investigating morphogenetic lability of this feature in natural populations. These data will be important for understanding evolutionary transitions between open and closed inflorescences. This paper presents first data on frequencies ofterminal flower-like structures in natural populations of Ruppia maritima and first observations of their development. Vascular supply of inflorescences with free and united flowers is compared for the first time. Strong differences in frequencies of occurrence of terminal flower-like structures among examined natural populations are revealed. Data on variation of organ numbers in flowers of plants from different populations allow hypothesizing that increased size of floral primordia is a factor that plays a role in their amalgamation into ajoint primordium of a terminal structure. Vascular system of inflorescences of R. maritima with united flowers is quite similar to the vascular system of a flower and nothing contradicts a hypothesis on terminal position ofthis structure. Transversally inserted stamens in inflorescences with united flowers are usually of inverted polarity. This appears to be the first documented example of an inversion of relative polarity of stamens and carpels in angiosperms.

Linking the open source, spatial electrification tool (ONSSET) and the open source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Arderne, Christopher; Siyal, Shahid; Zepeda, Eduardo; Taliotis, Constantinos; Bazilian, Morgan; de Roo, Ad; Tanvez, Yann; Oudalov, Alexandre; Scholtz, Ernst

2017-04-01

In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. "Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030" is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank's 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of world population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach coupled with open access data and linked to the Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA), a model that represents each continental African country's electricity supply system. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.

Population transcriptomics with single-cell resolution: a new field made possible by microfluidics: a technology for high throughput transcript counting and data-driven definition of cell types.

PubMed

Plessy, Charles; Desbois, Linda; Fujii, Teruo; Carninci, Piero

2013-02-01

Tissues contain complex populations of cells. Like countries, which are comprised of mixed populations of people, tissues are not homogeneous. Gene expression studies that analyze entire populations of cells from tissues as a mixture are blind to this diversity. Thus, critical information is lost when studying samples rich in specialized but diverse cells such as tumors, iPS colonies, or brain tissue. High throughput methods are needed to address, model and understand the constitutive and stochastic differences between individual cells. Here, we describe microfluidics technologies that utilize a combination of molecular biology and miniaturized labs on chips to study gene expression at the single cell level. We discuss how the characterization of the transcriptome of each cell in a sample will open a new field in gene expression analysis, population transcriptomics, that will change the academic and biomedical analysis of complex samples by defining them as quantified populations of single cells. Copyright © 2013 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

The Cardiac Atlas Project--an imaging database for computational modeling and statistical atlases of the heart.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carissa G; Backhaus, Michael; Bluemke, David A; Britten, Randall D; Chung, Jae Do; Cowan, Brett R; Dinov, Ivo D; Finn, J Paul; Hunter, Peter J; Kadish, Alan H; Lee, Daniel C; Lima, Joao A C; Medrano-Gracia, Pau; Shivkumar, Kalyanam; Suinesiaputra, Avan; Tao, Wenchao; Young, Alistair A

2011-08-15

Integrative mathematical and statistical models of cardiac anatomy and physiology can play a vital role in understanding cardiac disease phenotype and planning therapeutic strategies. However, the accuracy and predictive power of such models is dependent upon the breadth and depth of noninvasive imaging datasets. The Cardiac Atlas Project (CAP) has established a large-scale database of cardiac imaging examinations and associated clinical data in order to develop a shareable, web-accessible, structural and functional atlas of the normal and pathological heart for clinical, research and educational purposes. A goal of CAP is to facilitate collaborative statistical analysis of regional heart shape and wall motion and characterize cardiac function among and within population groups. Three main open-source software components were developed: (i) a database with web-interface; (ii) a modeling client for 3D + time visualization and parametric description of shape and motion; and (iii) open data formats for semantic characterization of models and annotations. The database was implemented using a three-tier architecture utilizing MySQL, JBoss and Dcm4chee, in compliance with the DICOM standard to provide compatibility with existing clinical networks and devices. Parts of Dcm4chee were extended to access image specific attributes as search parameters. To date, approximately 3000 de-identified cardiac imaging examinations are available in the database. All software components developed by the CAP are open source and are freely available under the Mozilla Public License Version 1.1 (http://www.mozilla.org/MPL/MPL-1.1.txt). http://www.cardiacatlas.org a.young@auckland.ac.nz Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur

2017-09-01

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fit their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: jjagdish@uj.ac.za, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fitmore » their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.« less

High prevalence of narrow angles among Chinese-American glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patients.

PubMed

Seider, Michael I; Pekmezci, Melike; Han, Ying; Sandhu, Simi; Kwok, Shiu Y; Lee, Roland Y; Lin, Shan C

2009-01-01

To evaluate the prevalence of gonioscopically narrow angles in a Chinese-American population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion. Charts from all Chinese-American patients seen in a comprehensive ophthalmology clinic in the Chinatown district of San Francisco in 2002 were reviewed. One eye from each patient with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion that met inclusion criteria was included (n=108). Data were collected for sex, age, race (self-declared), refraction (spherical equivalent), intraocular pressure, gonioscopy, and vertical cup-to-disk ratio. Sixty percent (n=65) of Chinese-American eyes with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles (Shaffer grade < or = 2 in 3 or more quadrants). Those with narrow angles were significantly older (P=0.004) than their open angle counterparts, but the 2 groups did not differ in terms of sex, refraction, intraocular pressure, or cup-to-disk ratio (all, P > or = 0.071). In a multivariate model including age, sex, and refraction as predictors of angle grade (open or narrow), only age was a significant predictor of angle grade (P=0.004). A large proportion of Chinese-Americans in our study population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles. In multivariate analysis, patients with narrow angles were older than those with open angles but did not differ from them in terms of sex or refraction. Continued evaluation of angle closure glaucoma risk among Chinese-Americans is needed.

[The Bellagio Model: an evidence-informed, international framework for population-oriented primary care. First experiences].

PubMed

Schlette, Sophia; Lisac, Melanie; Wagner, Ed; Gensichen, Jochen

2009-01-01

The Bellagio Model for Population-oriented Primary Care is an evidence-informed framework to assess accessible care for sick, vulnerable, and healthy people. The model was developed in spring 2008 by a multidisciplinary group of 24 experts from nine countries. The purpose of their gathering was to determine success factors for effective 21st century primary care based on state-of-the-art research findings, models, and empirical experience, and to assist with its implementation in practice, management, and health policy. Against the backdrop of "partialization", fragmentation in open health care systems, and the growing numbers of chronically ill or fragile people or those in need of any other kind of care, today's health care systems do not provide the much needed anchor point for continuing coordination and assistance prior, during and following an episode of illness. The Bellagio Model consists of ten key elements, which can make a substantial contribution to identify and overcome current gaps in primary care by using a synergetic approach. These elements are Shared Leadership, Public Trust, Horizontal and Vertical Integration, Networking of Professionals, Standardized Measurement, Research and Development, Payment Mix, Infrastructure, Programmes for Practice Improvement, and Population-oriented Management. All of these elements, which have been identified as being equally necessary, are also alike in that they involve all those responsible for health care: providers, managers, and policymakers.

TRACING EMBEDDED STELLAR POPULATIONS IN CLUSTERS AND GALAXIES USING MOLECULAR EMISSION: METHANOL AS A SIGNATURE OF THE LOW-MASS END OF THE IMF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kristensen, Lars E.; Bergin, Edwin A., E-mail: lkristensen@cfa.harvard.edu

2015-07-10

Most low-mass protostars form in clusters, in particular high-mass clusters; however, how low-mass stars form in high-mass clusters and what the mass distribution is are still open questions both in our own Galaxy and elsewhere. To access the population of forming embedded low-mass protostars observationally, we propose using molecular outflows as tracers. Because the outflow emission scales with mass, the effective contrast between low-mass protostars and their high-mass cousins is greatly lowered. In particular, maps of methanol emission at 338.4 GHz (J = 7{sub 0}–6{sub 0} A{sup +}) in low-mass clusters illustrate that this transition is an excellent probe ofmore » the low-mass population. We present here a model of a forming cluster where methanol emission is assigned to every embedded low-mass protostar. The resulting model image of methanol emission is compared to recent ALMA observations toward a high-mass cluster and the similarity is striking: the toy model reproduces observations to better than a factor of two and suggests that approximately 50% of the total flux originates in low-mass outflows. Future fine-tuning of the model will eventually make it a tool for interpreting the embedded low-mass population of distant regions within our own Galaxy and ultimately higher-redshift starburst galaxies, not just for methanol emission but also water and high-J CO.« less

The Electrophysiologic Effects of Acute Mitral Regurgitation in a Canine Model.

PubMed

Lawrance, Christopher P; Henn, Matthew C; Miller, Jacob R; Kopek, Michael A; Zhang, Andrew J; Schuessler, Richard B; Damiano, Ralph J

2017-04-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) occurs in 30% of patients with mitral regurgitation referred for surgical intervention. However, the underlying mechanisms in this population are poorly understood. This study examined the effects of acute left atrial volume overload on atrial electrophysiology and the inducibility of AF. Ten canines underwent insertion of an atrioventricular shunt between the left ventricle and left atrium. Shunt and aortic flows were calculated, and the shunt was titrated to a shunt fraction to 40% to 50% of cardiac output. An epicardial plaque with 250 bipolar electrodes was used to determine activation and refractory periods. Biatrial pressures and volumes, conduction times, and atrial fibrillation inducibility were recorded. Data were collected at baseline and 20 minutes after shunt opening and closure. Mean shunt flow was 1.3 ± 0.5 L/min with a shunt fraction of 43% ± 6% simulating moderate to severe mitral regurgitation. Compared with baseline, left atrial volumes and maximum pressures increased by 27% and 29%, respectively, after shunt opening. Biatrial effective refractory periods did not change significantly after shunt opening or closure. Conduction times increased by 9% with shunt opening and returned to baseline after closure. AF duration or inducibility did not change with shunt opening. This canine model of mitral regurgitation demonstrated that acute left atrial volume overload did not increase the inducibility of atrial arrhythmias in contrast with experimental and clinical findings of chronic left atrial volume overload. This suggests that the substrates for AF in patients with mitral regurgitation are a result of chronic remodeling. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual

PubMed Central

Thorne, James H.; Santos, Maria J.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H.

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID:23755204

Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

PubMed

Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

Cityscape genetics: structural vs. functional connectivity of an urban lizard population.

PubMed

Beninde, Joscha; Feldmeier, Stephan; Werner, Maike; Peroverde, Daniel; Schulte, Ulrich; Hochkirch, Axel; Veith, Michael

2016-10-01

Functional connectivity is essential for the long-term persistence of populations. However, many studies assess connectivity with a focus on structural connectivity only. Cityscapes, namely urban landscapes, are particularly dynamic and include numerous potential anthropogenic barriers to animal movements, such as roads, traffic or buildings. To assess and compare structural connectivity of habitats and functional connectivity of gene flow of an urban lizard, we here combined species distribution models (SDMs) with an individual-based landscape genetic optimization procedure. The most important environmental factors of the SDMs are structural diversity and substrate type, with high and medium levels of structural diversity as well as open and rocky/gravel substrates contributing most to structural connectivity. By contrast, water cover was the best model of all environmental factors following landscape genetic optimization. The river is thus a major barrier to gene flow, while of the typical anthropogenic factors only buildings showed an effect. Nonetheless, using SDMs as a basis for landscape genetic optimization provided the highest ranked model for functional connectivity. Optimizing SDMs in this way can provide a sound basis for models of gene flow of the cityscape, and elsewhere, while presence-only and presence-absence modelling approaches showed differences in performance. Additionally, interpretation of results based on SDM factor importance can be misleading, dictating more thorough analyses following optimization of SDMs. Such approaches can be adopted for management strategies, for example aiming to connect native common wall lizard populations or disconnect them from non-native introduced populations, which are currently spreading in many cities in Central Europe. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Differentiating between Distance/Open Education Systems: Parameters for Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

1993-01-01

Suggests eight parameters as criteria for describing and comparing distance education/open learning institutions: target population, dimensions of openness, organizational structure, design and development of learning materials, use of advanced technology, teaching/tutoring system, student support systems, and interinstitutional collaboration. (35…

Primordial binary populations in low-density star clusters as seen by Chandra: globular clusters versus old open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Berg, Maureen C.

2015-08-01

The binaries in the core of a star cluster are the energy source that prevents the cluster from experiencing core collapse. To model the dynamical evolution of a cluster, it is important to have constraints on the primordial binary content. X-ray observations of old star clusters are very efficient in detecting the close interacting binaries among the cluster members. The X-ray sources in star clusters are a mix of binaries that were dynamically formed and primordial binaries. In massive, dense star clusters, dynamical encounters play an important role in shaping the properties and numbers of the binaries. In contrast, in the low-density clusters the impact of dynamical encounters is presumed to be very small, and the close binaries detected in X-rays represent a primordial population. The lowest density globular clusters have current masses and central densities similar to those of the oldest open clusters in our Milky Way. I will discuss the results of studies with the Chandra X-ray Observatory that have nevertheless revealed a clear dichotomy: far fewer (if any at all) X-ray sources are detected in the central regions of the low-density globular clusters compared to the number of secure cluster members that have been detected in old open clusters (above a limiting X-ray luminosity of typically 4e30 erg/s). The low stellar encounter rates imply that dynamical destruction of binaries can be ignored at present, therefore an explanation must be sought elsewhere. I will discuss several factors that can shed light on the implied differences between the primordial close binary populations in the two types of star clusters.

Single-Step BLUP with Varying Genotyping Effort in Open-Pollinated Picea glauca.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, Blaise; El-Dien, Omnia Gamal; Cappa, Eduardo P; Porth, Ilga; Klápště, Jaroslav; Chen, Charles; El-Kassaby, Yousry A

2017-03-10

Maximization of genetic gain in forest tree breeding programs is contingent on the accuracy of the predicted breeding values and precision of the estimated genetic parameters. We investigated the effect of the combined use of contemporary pedigree information and genomic relatedness estimates on the accuracy of predicted breeding values and precision of estimated genetic parameters, as well as rankings of selection candidates, using single-step genomic evaluation (HBLUP). In this study, two traits with diverse heritabilities [tree height (HT) and wood density (WD)] were assessed at various levels of family genotyping efforts (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%) from a population of white spruce ( Picea glauca ) consisting of 1694 trees from 214 open-pollinated families, representing 43 provenances in Québec, Canada. The results revealed that HBLUP bivariate analysis is effective in reducing the known bias in heritability estimates of open-pollinated populations, as it exposes hidden relatedness, potential pedigree errors, and inbreeding. The addition of genomic information in the analysis considerably improved the accuracy in breeding value estimates by accounting for both Mendelian sampling and historical coancestry that were not captured by the contemporary pedigree alone. Increasing family genotyping efforts were associated with continuous improvement in model fit, precision of genetic parameters, and breeding value accuracy. Yet, improvements were observed even at minimal genotyping effort, indicating that even modest genotyping effort is effective in improving genetic evaluation. The combined utilization of both pedigree and genomic information may be a cost-effective approach to increase the accuracy of breeding values in forest tree breeding programs where shallow pedigrees and large testing populations are the norm. Copyright © 2017 Ratcliffe et al.

Evaluation and optimisation of current milrinone prescribing for the treatment and prevention of low cardiac output syndrome in paediatric patients after open heart surgery using a physiology-based pharmacokinetic drug-disease model.

PubMed

Vogt, Winnie

2014-01-01

Milrinone is the drug of choice for the treatment and prevention of low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) in paediatric patients after open heart surgery across Europe. Discrepancies, however, among prescribing guidance, clinical studies and practice pattern require clarification to ensure safe and effective prescribing. However, the clearance prediction equations derived from classical pharmacokinetic modelling provide limited support as they have recently failed a clinical practice evaluation. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate current milrinone dosing using physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation to complement the existing pharmacokinetic knowledge and propose optimised dosing regimens as a basis for improving the standard of care for paediatric patients. A PBPK drug-disease model using a population approach was developed in three steps from healthy young adults to adult patients and paediatric patients with and without LCOS after open heart surgery. Pre- and postoperative organ function values from adult and paediatric patients were collected from literature and integrated into a disease model as factorial changes from the reference values in healthy adults aged 20-40 years. The disease model was combined with the PBPK drug model and evaluated against existing pharmacokinetic data. Model robustness was assessed by parametric sensitivity analysis. In the next step, virtual patient populations were created, each with 1,000 subjects reflecting the average adult and paediatric patient characteristics with regard to age, sex, bodyweight and height. They were integrated into the PBPK drug-disease model to evaluate the effectiveness of current milrinone dosing in achieving the therapeutic target range of 100-300 ng/mL milrinone in plasma. Optimised dosing regimens were subsequently developed. The pharmacokinetics of milrinone in healthy young adults as well as adult and paediatric patients were accurately described with an average fold error of 1.1 ± 0.1 (mean ± standard deviation) and mean relative deviation of 1.5 ± 0.3 as measures of bias and precision, respectively. Normalised maximum sensitivity coefficients for model input parameters ranged from -0.84 to 0.71, which indicated model robustness. The evaluation of milrinone dosing across different paediatric age groups showed a non-linear age dependence of total plasma clearance and exposure differences of a factor 1.4 between patients with and without LCOS for a fixed dosing regimen. None of the currently used dosing regimens for milrinone achieved the therapeutic target range across all paediatric age groups and adult patients, so optimised dosing regimens were developed that considered the age-dependent and pathophysiological differences. The PBPK drug-disease model for milrinone in paediatric patients with and without LCOS after open heart surgery highlights that age, disease and surgery differently impact the pharmacokinetics of milrinone, and that current milrinone dosing for LCOS is suboptimal to maintain the therapeutic target range across the entire paediatric age range. Thus, optimised dosing strategies are proposed to ensure safe and effective prescribing.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Arkheia: Data Management and Communication for Open Computational Neuroscience

PubMed Central

Antolík, Ján; Davison, Andrew P.

2018-01-01

Two trends have been unfolding in computational neuroscience during the last decade. First, a shift of focus to increasingly complex and heterogeneous neural network models, with a concomitant increase in the level of collaboration within the field (whether direct or in the form of building on top of existing tools and results). Second, a general trend in science toward more open communication, both internally, with other potential scientific collaborators, and externally, with the wider public. This multi-faceted development toward more integrative approaches and more intense communication within and outside of the field poses major new challenges for modelers, as currently there is a severe lack of tools to help with automatic communication and sharing of all aspects of a simulation workflow to the rest of the community. To address this important gap in the current computational modeling software infrastructure, here we introduce Arkheia. Arkheia is a web-based open science platform for computational models in systems neuroscience. It provides an automatic, interactive, graphical presentation of simulation results, experimental protocols, and interactive exploration of parameter searches, in a web browser-based application. Arkheia is focused on automatic presentation of these resources with minimal manual input from users. Arkheia is written in a modular fashion with a focus on future development of the platform. The platform is designed in an open manner, with a clearly defined and separated API for database access, so that any project can write its own backend translating its data into the Arkheia database format. Arkheia is not a centralized platform, but allows any user (or group of users) to set up their own repository, either for public access by the general population, or locally for internal use. Overall, Arkheia provides users with an automatic means to communicate information about not only their models but also individual simulation results and the entire experimental context in an approachable graphical manner, thus facilitating the user's ability to collaborate in the field and outreach to a wider audience. PMID:29556187

Arkheia: Data Management and Communication for Open Computational Neuroscience.

PubMed

Antolík, Ján; Davison, Andrew P

2018-01-01

Two trends have been unfolding in computational neuroscience during the last decade. First, a shift of focus to increasingly complex and heterogeneous neural network models, with a concomitant increase in the level of collaboration within the field (whether direct or in the form of building on top of existing tools and results). Second, a general trend in science toward more open communication, both internally, with other potential scientific collaborators, and externally, with the wider public. This multi-faceted development toward more integrative approaches and more intense communication within and outside of the field poses major new challenges for modelers, as currently there is a severe lack of tools to help with automatic communication and sharing of all aspects of a simulation workflow to the rest of the community. To address this important gap in the current computational modeling software infrastructure, here we introduce Arkheia. Arkheia is a web-based open science platform for computational models in systems neuroscience. It provides an automatic, interactive, graphical presentation of simulation results, experimental protocols, and interactive exploration of parameter searches, in a web browser-based application. Arkheia is focused on automatic presentation of these resources with minimal manual input from users. Arkheia is written in a modular fashion with a focus on future development of the platform. The platform is designed in an open manner, with a clearly defined and separated API for database access, so that any project can write its own backend translating its data into the Arkheia database format. Arkheia is not a centralized platform, but allows any user (or group of users) to set up their own repository, either for public access by the general population, or locally for internal use. Overall, Arkheia provides users with an automatic means to communicate information about not only their models but also individual simulation results and the entire experimental context in an approachable graphical manner, thus facilitating the user's ability to collaborate in the field and outreach to a wider audience.

Estimating temporary emigration and breeding proportions using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1997-01-01

Statistical inference for capture-recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration, completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly-Seber (Seber 1982) estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach of Kendall et al. (1995) to robust design data. Capture-recapture data arising from Pollock's (1982) robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration, two of which should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small mammal capture-recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Coupled effects of vertical mixing and benthic grazing on phytoplankton populations in shallow, turbid estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Holen, Jacqueline K.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Cloern, James E.

1993-01-01

Coastal ocean waters tend to have very different patterns of phytoplankton biomass variability from the open ocean, and the connections between physical variability and phytoplankton bloom dynamics are less well established for these shallow systems. Predictions of biological responses to physical variability in these environments is inherently difficult because the recurrent seasonal patterns of mixing are complicated by aperiodic fluctuations in river discharge and the high-frequency components of tidal variability. We might expect, then, less predictable and more complex bloom dynamics in these shallow coastal systems compared with the open ocean. Given this complex and dynamic physical environment, can we develop a quantitative framework to define the physical regimes necessary for bloom inception, and can we identify the important mechanisms of physical-biological coupling that lead to the initiation and termination of blooms in estuaries and shallow coastal waters? Numerical modeling provides one approach to address these questions. Here we present results of simulation experiments with a refined version of Cloern's (1991) model in which mixing processes are treated more realistically to reflect the dynamic nature of turbulence generation in estuaries. We investigated several simple models for the turbulent mixing coefficient. We found that the addition of diurnal tidal variation to Cloern's model greatly reduces biomass growth indicating that variations of mixing on the time scale of hours are crucial. Furthermore, we found that for conditions representative of South San Francisco Bay, numerical simulations only allowed for bloom development when the water column was stratified and when minimal mixing was prescribed in the upper layer. Stratification, however, itself is not sufficient to ensure that a bloom will develop: minimal wind stirring is a further prerequisite to bloom development in shallow turbid estuaries with abundant populations of benthic suspension feeders.

Hierarchial mark-recapture models: a framework for inference about demographic processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

2004-01-01

The development of sophisticated mark-recapture models over the last four decades has provided fundamental tools for the study of wildlife populations, allowing reliable inference about population sizes and demographic rates based on clearly formulated models for the sampling processes. Mark-recapture models are now routinely described by large numbers of parameters. These large models provide the next challenge to wildlife modelers: the extraction of signal from noise in large collections of parameters. Pattern among parameters can be described by strong, deterministic relations (as in ultrastructural models) but is more flexibly and credibly modeled using weaker, stochastic relations. Trend in survival rates is not likely to be manifest by a sequence of values falling precisely on a given parametric curve; rather, if we could somehow know the true values, we might anticipate a regression relation between parameters and explanatory variables, in which true value equals signal plus noise. Hierarchical models provide a useful framework for inference about collections of related parameters. Instead of regarding parameters as fixed but unknown quantities, we regard them as realizations of stochastic processes governed by hyperparameters. Inference about demographic processes is based on investigation of these hyperparameters. We advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a natural, mathematically and scientifically sound basis for inference about hierarchical models. We describe analysis of capture-recapture data from an open population based on hierarchical extensions of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture, and are thus able to estimate survival probabilities w (i.e., the complement of death or permanent emigration) and per capita growth rates f (i.e., the sum of recruitment and immigration rates). Covariation in these rates, a feature of demographic interest, is explicitly described in the model.

The evolutionary dynamics of language.

PubMed

Steels, Luc; Szathmáry, Eörs

2018-02-01

The well-established framework of evolutionary dynamics can be applied to the fascinating open problems how human brains are able to acquire and adapt language and how languages change in a population. Schemas for handling grammatical constructions are the replicating unit. They emerge and multiply with variation in the brains of individuals and undergo selection based on their contribution to needed expressive power, communicative success and the reduction of cognitive effort. Adopting this perspective has two major benefits. (i) It makes a bridge to neurobiological models of the brain that have also adopted an evolutionary dynamics point of view, thus opening a new horizon for studying how human brains achieve the remarkably complex competence for language. And (ii) it suggests a new foundation for studying cultural language change as an evolutionary dynamics process. The paper sketches this novel perspective, provides references to empirical data and computational experiments, and points to open problems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Run-Up to the 1999 Sub-Plinian Eruption of Shishaldin Volcano Unveiled Using Petrologic and Seismic Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. J.; Plank, T. A.; Roman, D. C.; Lough, A. C.; Stelling, P. L.; Bodnar, R. J.; Hauri, E. H.

2016-12-01

On April 19, 1999 Shishaldin volcano had its largest eruption in 200 years, which released 43 million m3 of basaltic ash. InSAR images reveal a lack of long-term deformation related to the eruption, which is behavior characteristic of Shishaldin and other open-conduit volcanoes in the region. One explanation for the absence of observable geodetic response at Shishaldin is that deep (>10 km bsl) magma ascends to shallow depths within months of the eruption (Moran et al., 2006 JVGR). Here we test this idea and investigate the run-up to this eruption by determining the locations of magmas and timing of recharge with petrologic and seismic approaches with the goal of informing interpretation of precursory signals used to evaluate volcanic risks and aiding in our understanding of open-conduit volcanism. We uncover magma storage depths using the pressures melt inclusion entrapment. Vapor saturation pressure modeling of Raman-reconstructed volatile contents of inclusions suggests most formed at <6 km depth, implying magmas resided within (or just below) the edifice prior to eruption. EMP-calibrated backscattered electron images of olivines distinguish two populations: a dominant population of evolved olivines (Fo60-70) that are reversely zoned and a second population containing more primitive olivines (Fo70-80) that are normally zoned. We recover mixing-to-eruption timescales through modeling Fe-Mg interdiffusion. Preliminary results show a wide range of timescales (days to months), but the majority are consistent with a significant mixing event in early 1999. We further investigate the timing of recharge by analyzing regional earthquakes for shear-wave splitting. We find that an increase in delay times between the fast and slow split S-wavelets had occurred between September 1998 and February 1999, accompanied by a 90° change in the polarization of fast S-wavelets, indicating magma intrusion by February 1999. These results indicate that, in this case, the repeat interval of InSAR measurements was not short enough to capture deformation that may have accompanied the eruption. This supports the idea that some open-conduit volcanoes have rapid recharge, and probably little long-term shallow storage.

Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding shrubland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, Bruce G.

2006-01-01

While grassland birds have become the focus of increased conservation activities, the status of birds occupying shrubland habitats has received relatively little attention (Hunter et al. 2001). Yet, in eastern North America, shrubland birds exhibited consistent population declines during the past 40 years, based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (Pardieck and Sauer 2001). These population declines primarily reflect large-scale changes in land use patterns during the previous century (Lorimer 2001). Large areas of marginal farmland were abandoned and underwent secondary succession during the first half of the twentieth century, producing abundant successional habitats favored by shrubland birds. As these habitats matured, combined with strict fire-suppression policies (Hunter et al. 2001), shrublands succeeded into mature forests, and shrubland bird communities were replaced by woodland birds (Irland 1982; Askins 1993). For example, while nearly 29% of New England forests were classified as sapling stage in 1950, only 8% remained at that stage in the 1980s (Askins 1993). The trend towards forest maturation and loss of shrubland habitats continues, yet concerted conservation activities have not been directed to benefit declining shrubland bird populations. The National Park Service (NPS) could contribute to shrubland bird conservation in the Mid- Atlantic Region. The NPS maintains a number of historic sites and former battlefields managed for their cultural significance but also support wildlife populations. Many of these “cultural parks” maintain open landscapes, recreating land use patterns existing at the times of the historical events. While these open landscapes are frequently managed grasslands, some parks also support successional habitats that could be managed to benefit shrubland birds. In 2005, the NPS initiated a project exploring the potential of “cultural parks” to support significant breeding grassland and shrubland bird communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpreting historic events. Most parks were selected because they contain the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, although some also support shrubby successional habitats. The five parks included in this study are Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS network coordinators to understand which factors should be considered when making decisions concerning shrubland management within their networks. This model provides park resource managers with information on shrubland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of shrubland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues influencing whether significant breeding populations can occupy shrublands created and maintained in the parks. Resource managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain shrubland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding shrubland birds. Additional species occur during migration and winter, and habitat requirements of shrubland birds during nonbreeding seasons may differ from those described for the breeding season.

Maintenance costs of serotiny in a variably serotinous pine: The role of water supply.

PubMed

Martín-Sanz, Ruth C; Callejas-Díaz, Marta; Tonnabel, Jeanne; Climent, José M

2017-01-01

Serotiny is an important adaptation for plants in fire-prone environments. However, different mechanisms also induce the opening of serotinous cones in the absence of fire in variably serotinous species. Xeriscence -cone opening driven by dry and hot conditions- is considered to be mediated only by the external environment, but endogenous factors could also play a significant role. Using the variably serotinous Pinus halepensis as our model species, we determined the effects of cone age and scales density in cone opening, and using in-situ and ex-situ manipulative experiments we investigated the role of water availability in the opening of serotinous cones. We hypothesized that loss of connection between the cones and the branch through the peduncles or the absence of water supply could induce a faster cone opening. Results showed that older cones lost more water and opened at lower temperatures, with no influence of scales density. Both field and chamber manipulative experiments (using paired cones of the same whorl) confirmed that water intake through the peduncles affected significantly the pace of cone opening, such that lack of water supply speeded up cone dehiscence. However, this was true for weakly serotinous provenances-more common in this species-, while highly serotinous provenances were indifferent to this effect in the field test. All our results support that cone serotiny in P. halepensis involves the allocation of water to the cones, which is highly consistent with the previously observed environmental effects. Importantly, the existence of maintenance costs of serotinous cones has strong implications on the effects of climate change in the resilience of natural populations, via modifications of the canopy seed banks and recruitment after stand-replacing fires. Moreover, evolutionary models for serotiny in P. halepensis must take into account the significant contribution of maintenance costs to the complex interaction between genotype and the environment.

Simplified risk assessment of noise induced hearing loss by means of 2 spreadsheet models.

PubMed

Lie, Arve; Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian

2016-11-18

The objective of this study has been to test 2 spreadsheet models to compare the observed with the expected hearing loss for a Norwegian reference population. The prevalence rates of the Norwegian and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) definitions of hearing outcomes were calculated in terms of sex and age, 20-64 years old, for a screened (with no occupational noise exposure) (N = 18 858) and unscreened (N = 38 333) Norwegian reference population from the Nord-Trøndelag Hearing Loss Study (NTHLS). Based on the prevalence rates, 2 different spreadsheet models were constructed in order to compare the prevalence rates of various groups of workers with the expected rates. The spreadsheets were then tested on 10 different occupational groups with varying degrees of hearing loss as compared to a reference population. Hearing of office workers, train drivers, conductors and teachers differed little from the screened reference values based on the Norwegian and the NIOSH criterion. The construction workers, miners, farmers and military had an impaired hearing and railway maintenance workers and bus drivers had a mildly impaired hearing. The spreadsheet models give a valid assessment of the hearing loss. The use of spreadsheet models to compare hearing in occupational groups with that of a reference population is a simple and quick method. The results are in line with comparable hearing thresholds, and allow for significance testing. The method is believed to be useful for occupational health services in the assessment of risk of noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) and the preventive potential in groups of noise-exposed workers. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(6):991-999. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Comparing the Performance of NoSQL Approaches for Managing Archetype-Based Electronic Health Record Data

PubMed Central

Freire, Sergio Miranda; Teodoro, Douglas; Wei-Kleiner, Fang; Sundvall, Erik; Karlsson, Daniel; Lambrix, Patrick

2016-01-01

This study provides an experimental performance evaluation on population-based queries of NoSQL databases storing archetype-based Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. There are few published studies regarding the performance of persistence mechanisms for systems that use multilevel modelling approaches, especially when the focus is on population-based queries. A healthcare dataset with 4.2 million records stored in a relational database (MySQL) was used to generate XML and JSON documents based on the openEHR reference model. Six datasets with different sizes were created from these documents and imported into three single machine XML databases (BaseX, eXistdb and Berkeley DB XML) and into a distributed NoSQL database system based on the MapReduce approach, Couchbase, deployed in different cluster configurations of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 machines. Population-based queries were submitted to those databases and to the original relational database. Database size and query response times are presented. The XML databases were considerably slower and required much more space than Couchbase. Overall, Couchbase had better response times than MySQL, especially for larger datasets. However, Couchbase requires indexing for each differently formulated query and the indexing time increases with the size of the datasets. The performances of the clusters with 2, 4, 8 and 12 nodes were not better than the single node cluster in relation to the query response time, but the indexing time was reduced proportionally to the number of nodes. The tested XML databases had acceptable performance for openEHR-based data in some querying use cases and small datasets, but were generally much slower than Couchbase. Couchbase also outperformed the response times of the relational database, but required more disk space and had a much longer indexing time. Systems like Couchbase are thus interesting research targets for scalable storage and querying of archetype-based EHR data when population-based use cases are of interest. PMID:26958859

Comparing the Performance of NoSQL Approaches for Managing Archetype-Based Electronic Health Record Data.

PubMed

Freire, Sergio Miranda; Teodoro, Douglas; Wei-Kleiner, Fang; Sundvall, Erik; Karlsson, Daniel; Lambrix, Patrick

2016-01-01

This study provides an experimental performance evaluation on population-based queries of NoSQL databases storing archetype-based Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. There are few published studies regarding the performance of persistence mechanisms for systems that use multilevel modelling approaches, especially when the focus is on population-based queries. A healthcare dataset with 4.2 million records stored in a relational database (MySQL) was used to generate XML and JSON documents based on the openEHR reference model. Six datasets with different sizes were created from these documents and imported into three single machine XML databases (BaseX, eXistdb and Berkeley DB XML) and into a distributed NoSQL database system based on the MapReduce approach, Couchbase, deployed in different cluster configurations of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 machines. Population-based queries were submitted to those databases and to the original relational database. Database size and query response times are presented. The XML databases were considerably slower and required much more space than Couchbase. Overall, Couchbase had better response times than MySQL, especially for larger datasets. However, Couchbase requires indexing for each differently formulated query and the indexing time increases with the size of the datasets. The performances of the clusters with 2, 4, 8 and 12 nodes were not better than the single node cluster in relation to the query response time, but the indexing time was reduced proportionally to the number of nodes. The tested XML databases had acceptable performance for openEHR-based data in some querying use cases and small datasets, but were generally much slower than Couchbase. Couchbase also outperformed the response times of the relational database, but required more disk space and had a much longer indexing time. Systems like Couchbase are thus interesting research targets for scalable storage and querying of archetype-based EHR data when population-based use cases are of interest.

Cost-effectiveness of community screening for glaucoma in rural India: a decision analytical model.

PubMed

John, D; Parikh, R

2018-02-01

Studies in several countries have demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for glaucoma when targeted at high-risk groups such as older adults and with familial history of disease. This study conducts a cost-effective analysis of a hypothetical community screening and subsequent treatment programme in comparison to opportunistic case finding for glaucoma in rural India. A hypothetical screening programme for both primary open-angle glaucoma and angle-closure disease was built for a population aged between 40 and 69 years in rural areas of India. A decision analytical model was built to model events, costs and treatment pathways with and without a hypothetical screening programme for glaucoma for a rural-based population aged between 40 and 69 years in India. The treatment pathway included both primary open-angle glaucoma and angle-closure disease. The data on costs of screening and treatment were provided by an administrator of a tertiary eye hospital in Eastern India. The probabilities for the screening and treatment pathway were derived from published literature and a glaucoma specialist. The glaucoma prevalence rates were adapted from the Chennai Glaucoma Study findings. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio value of ₹7292.30 per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated for a community-screening programme for glaucoma in rural India. The community screening for glaucoma would treat an additional 2872 cases and prevent 2190 person-years of blindness over a 10-year period. Community screening for glaucoma in rural India appears to be cost-effective when judged by a ratio of willingness-to-pay thresholds as per WHO-CHOICE guidelines. For community screening to be cost-effective, adequate resources, such as trained medical personnel and equipment would need to be made available. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical physics of vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Bauch, Chris T.; Bhattacharyya, Samit; d'Onofrio, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero; Perc, Matjaž; Perra, Nicola; Salathé, Marcel; Zhao, Dawei

2016-12-01

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination-one of the most important preventive measures of modern times-is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research.

Modeling the Galaxy-Halo Connection: An open-source approach with Halotools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearin, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although the modern form of galaxy-halo modeling has been in place for over ten years, there exists no common code base for carrying out large-scale structure calculations. Considering, for example, the advances in CMB science made possible by Boltzmann-solvers such as CMBFast, CAMB and CLASS, there are clear precedents for how theorists working in a well-defined subfield can mutually benefit from such a code base. Motivated by these and other examples, I present Halotools: an open-source, object-oriented python package for building and testing models of the galaxy-halo connection. Halotools is community-driven, and already includes contributions from over a dozen scientists spread across numerous universities. Designed with high-speed performance in mind, the package generates mock observations of synthetic galaxy populations with sufficient speed to conduct expansive MCMC likelihood analyses over a diverse and highly customizable set of models. The package includes an automated test suite and extensive web-hosted documentation and tutorials (halotools.readthedocs.org). I conclude the talk by describing how Halotools can be used to analyze existing datasets to obtain robust and novel constraints on galaxy evolution models, and by outlining the Halotools program to prepare the field of cosmology for the arrival of Stage IV dark energy experiments.

Effect of pregnancy on the genetic evaluation of dairy cattle.

PubMed

Pereira, R J; Santana, M L; Bignardi, A B; Verneque, R S; El Faro, L; Albuquerque, L G

2011-09-26

We investigated the effect of stage of pregnancy on estimates of breeding values for milk yield and milk persistency in Gyr and Holstein dairy cattle in Brazil. Test-day milk yield records were analyzed using random regression models with or without the effect of pregnancy. Models were compared using residual variances, heritabilities, rank correlations of estimated breeding values of bulls and cows, and number of nonpregnant cows in the top 200 for milk yield and milk persistency. The estimates of residual variance and heritabilities obtained with the models with or without the effect of pregnancy were similar for the two breeds. Inclusion of the effect of pregnancy in genetic evaluation models for these populations did not affect the ranking of cows and sires based on their predicted breeding values for 305-day cumulative milk yield. In contrast, when we examined persistency of milk yield, lack of adjustment for the effect of pregnancy overestimated breeding values of nonpregnant cows and cows with a long days open period and underestimated breeding values of cows with a short days open period. We recommend that models include the effect of days of pregnancy for estimation of adjustment factors for the effect of pregnancy in genetic evaluations of Dairy Gyr and Holstein cattle.

Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

2014-05-01

The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The data model includes data-structures for CBA and SMCE. The model is at the stage where risk and cost-benefit calculations can be stored but the remaining part is currently under development. Multi-criteria information, user management and the relation of these with the rest of the model is our next step. Having a carefully designed data model plays a crucial role in the development of the whole system for rapid development, keeping the data consistent, and in the end, support the end-user in making good decisions in risk-reduction measures related to multiple natural hazards. This work is part of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN "CHANGES"project (www.changes-itn.edu)

Exact Hybrid Particle/Population Simulation of Rule-Based Models of Biochemical Systems

PubMed Central

Stover, Lori J.; Nair, Niketh S.; Faeder, James R.

2014-01-01

Detailed modeling and simulation of biochemical systems is complicated by the problem of combinatorial complexity, an explosion in the number of species and reactions due to myriad protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications. Rule-based modeling overcomes this problem by representing molecules as structured objects and encoding their interactions as pattern-based rules. This greatly simplifies the process of model specification, avoiding the tedious and error prone task of manually enumerating all species and reactions that can potentially exist in a system. From a simulation perspective, rule-based models can be expanded algorithmically into fully-enumerated reaction networks and simulated using a variety of network-based simulation methods, such as ordinary differential equations or Gillespie's algorithm, provided that the network is not exceedingly large. Alternatively, rule-based models can be simulated directly using particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This “network-free” approach produces exact stochastic trajectories with a computational cost that is independent of network size. However, memory and run time costs increase with the number of particles, limiting the size of system that can be feasibly simulated. Here, we present a hybrid particle/population simulation method that combines the best attributes of both the network-based and network-free approaches. The method takes as input a rule-based model and a user-specified subset of species to treat as population variables rather than as particles. The model is then transformed by a process of “partial network expansion” into a dynamically equivalent form that can be simulated using a population-adapted network-free simulator. The transformation method has been implemented within the open-source rule-based modeling platform BioNetGen, and resulting hybrid models can be simulated using the particle-based simulator NFsim. Performance tests show that significant memory savings can be achieved using the new approach and a monetary cost analysis provides a practical measure of its utility. PMID:24699269

Exact hybrid particle/population simulation of rule-based models of biochemical systems.

PubMed

Hogg, Justin S; Harris, Leonard A; Stover, Lori J; Nair, Niketh S; Faeder, James R

2014-04-01

Detailed modeling and simulation of biochemical systems is complicated by the problem of combinatorial complexity, an explosion in the number of species and reactions due to myriad protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications. Rule-based modeling overcomes this problem by representing molecules as structured objects and encoding their interactions as pattern-based rules. This greatly simplifies the process of model specification, avoiding the tedious and error prone task of manually enumerating all species and reactions that can potentially exist in a system. From a simulation perspective, rule-based models can be expanded algorithmically into fully-enumerated reaction networks and simulated using a variety of network-based simulation methods, such as ordinary differential equations or Gillespie's algorithm, provided that the network is not exceedingly large. Alternatively, rule-based models can be simulated directly using particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This "network-free" approach produces exact stochastic trajectories with a computational cost that is independent of network size. However, memory and run time costs increase with the number of particles, limiting the size of system that can be feasibly simulated. Here, we present a hybrid particle/population simulation method that combines the best attributes of both the network-based and network-free approaches. The method takes as input a rule-based model and a user-specified subset of species to treat as population variables rather than as particles. The model is then transformed by a process of "partial network expansion" into a dynamically equivalent form that can be simulated using a population-adapted network-free simulator. The transformation method has been implemented within the open-source rule-based modeling platform BioNetGen, and resulting hybrid models can be simulated using the particle-based simulator NFsim. Performance tests show that significant memory savings can be achieved using the new approach and a monetary cost analysis provides a practical measure of its utility.

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

PubMed

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Results of the second Round Robin on opening-load measurement conducted by ASTM Task Group E24.04.04 on crack closure measurement and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, E. P.

1993-01-01

A second experimental Round Robin on the measurement of the crack opening load in fatigue crack growth tests has been completed by the ASTM Task Group E24.04.04 on Crack Closure Measurement and Analysis. Fourteen laboratories participated in the testing of aluminum alloy compact tension specimens. Opening-load measurements were made at three crack lengths during constant Delta K, constant stress ratio tests by most of the participants. Four participants made opening-load measurements during threshold tests. All opening-load measurements were based on the analysis of specimens compliance behavior, where the displacement/strain was measured either at the crack mouth or the mid-height back face location. The Round Robin data were analyzed for opening load using two non-subjective analysis methods: the compliance offset and the correlation coefficient methods. The scatter in the opening load results was significantly reduced when some of the results were excluded from the analysis population based on an accept/reject criterion for raw data quality. The compliance offset and correlation coefficient opening load analysis methods produced similar results for data populations that had been screened to eliminate poor quality data.

PSRPOPPy: an open-source package for pulsar population simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, S. D.; Lorimer, D. R.; Rane, A.; Swiggum, J.

2014-04-01

We have produced a new software package for the simulation of pulsar populations, PSRPOPPY, based on the PSRPOP package. The codebase has been re-written in Python (save for some external libraries, which remain in their native Fortran), utilizing the object-oriented features of the language, and improving the modularity of the code. Pre-written scripts are provided for running the simulations in `standard' modes of operation, but the code is flexible enough to support the writing of personalised scripts. The modular structure also makes the addition of experimental features (such as new models for period or luminosity distributions) more straightforward than with the previous code. We also discuss potential additions to the modelling capabilities of the software. Finally, we demonstrate some potential applications of the code; first, using results of surveys at different observing frequencies, we find pulsar spectral indices are best fitted by a normal distribution with mean -1.4 and standard deviation 1.0. Secondly, we model pulsar spin evolution to calculate the best fit for a relationship between a pulsar's luminosity and spin parameters. We used the code to replicate the analysis of Faucher-Giguère & Kaspi, and have subsequently optimized their power-law dependence of radio luminosity, L, with period, P, and period derivative, Ṗ. We find that the underlying population is best described by L ∝ P-1.39±0.09 Ṗ0.48±0.04 and is very similar to that found for γ-ray pulsars by Perera et al. Using this relationship, we generate a model population and examine the age-luminosity relation for the entire pulsar population, which may be measurable after future large-scale surveys with the Square Kilometre Array.

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent processes from a different domain or have different spatial and temporal resolutions. An open source framework that bridges OpenMI and OpenDA is presented. The framework provides a generic and easy means for any OpenMI compliant model to assimilate observation measurements. An example test case will be presented using MikeSHE, and OpenMI compliant fully coupled integrated hydrological model that can accurately simulate the feedback dynamics of overland flow, unsaturated zone and saturated zone.

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic.

PubMed

Moore, Sue E; Laidre, Kristin L

2006-06-01

We examined trends in sea ice cover between 1979 and 2002 in four months (March, June, September, and November) for four large (approximately 100,000 km2) and 12 small (approximately 10,000 km2) regions of the western Arctic in habitats used by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus). Variation in open water with year was significant in all months except March, but interactions between region and year were not. Open water increased in both large and small regions, but trends were weak with least-squares regression accounting for < or =34% of the total variation. In large regions, positive trends in open water were strongest in September. Linear fits were poor, however, even in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, where basin-scale analyses have emphasized dramatic sea ice loss. Small regions also showed weak positive trends in open water and strong interannual variability. Open water increased consistently in five small regions where bowhead whales have been observed feeding or where oceanographic models predict prey entrainment, including: (1) June, along the northern Chukotka coast, near Wrangel Island, and along the Beaufort slope; (2) September, near Wrangel Island, the Barrow Arc, and the Chukchi Borderland; and (3) November, along the Barrow Arc. Conversely, there was very little consistent change in sea ice cover in four small regions considered winter refugia for bowhead whales in the northern Bering Sea, nor in two small regions that include the primary springtime migration corridor in the Chukchi Sea. The effects of sea ice cover on bowhead whale prey availability are unknown but can be modeled via production and advection pathways. Our conceptual model suggests that reductions in sea ice cover will increase prey availability along both pathways for this population. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.

The influence of personal belief, agency mission and city size on open space decision making processes in three southwestern cities

Treesearch

Megan Friggens; Carol Raish; Deborah Finch; Alice McSweeney

2015-01-01

The southwest has experienced dramatic population increases over the last 30 years, a trend that is expected to continue. Open space conservation is important both from the standpoint of preserving ecosystem services as well as maintaining quality of life for urban populations. Federal agencies manage a large proportion of the public land in the Southwestern U.S. We...

Open-Source Data and the Study of Homicide.

PubMed

Parkin, William S; Gruenewald, Jeff

2015-07-20

To date, no discussion has taken place in the social sciences as to the appropriateness of using open-source data to augment, or replace, official data sources in homicide research. The purpose of this article is to examine whether open-source data have the potential to be used as a valid and reliable data source in testing theory and studying homicide. Official and open-source homicide data were collected as a case study in a single jurisdiction over a 1-year period. The data sets were compared to determine whether open-sources could recreate the population of homicides and variable responses collected in official data. Open-source data were able to replicate the population of homicides identified in the official data. Also, for every variable measured, the open-sources captured as much, or more, of the information presented in the official data. Also, variables not available in official data, but potentially useful for testing theory, were identified in open-sources. The results of the case study show that open-source data are potentially as effective as official data in identifying individual- and situational-level characteristics, provide access to variables not found in official homicide data, and offer geographic data that can be used to link macro-level characteristics to homicide events. © The Author(s) 2015.

The influence of synaptic size on AMPA receptor activation: a Monte Carlo model.

PubMed

Montes, Jesus; Peña, Jose M; DeFelipe, Javier; Herreras, Oscar; Merchan-Perez, Angel

2015-01-01

Physiological and electron microscope studies have shown that synapses are functionally and morphologically heterogeneous and that variations in size of synaptic junctions are related to characteristics such as release probability and density of postsynaptic AMPA receptors. The present article focuses on how these morphological variations impact synaptic transmission. We based our study on Monte Carlo computational simulations of simplified model synapses whose morphological features have been extracted from hundreds of actual synaptic junctions reconstructed by three-dimensional electron microscopy. We have examined the effects that parameters such as synaptic size or density of AMPA receptors have on the number of receptors that open after release of a single synaptic vesicle. Our results indicate that the maximum number of receptors that will open after the release of a single synaptic vesicle may show a ten-fold variation in the whole population of synapses. When individual synapses are considered, there is also a stochastical variability that is maximal in small synapses with low numbers of receptors. The number of postsynaptic receptors and the size of the synaptic junction are the most influential parameters, while the packing density of receptors or the concentration of extrasynaptic transporters have little or no influence on the opening of AMPA receptors.

The Influence of Synaptic Size on AMPA Receptor Activation: A Monte Carlo Model

PubMed Central

Montes, Jesus; Peña, Jose M.; DeFelipe, Javier; Herreras, Oscar; Merchan-Perez, Angel

2015-01-01

Physiological and electron microscope studies have shown that synapses are functionally and morphologically heterogeneous and that variations in size of synaptic junctions are related to characteristics such as release probability and density of postsynaptic AMPA receptors. The present article focuses on how these morphological variations impact synaptic transmission. We based our study on Monte Carlo computational simulations of simplified model synapses whose morphological features have been extracted from hundreds of actual synaptic junctions reconstructed by three-dimensional electron microscopy. We have examined the effects that parameters such as synaptic size or density of AMPA receptors have on the number of receptors that open after release of a single synaptic vesicle. Our results indicate that the maximum number of receptors that will open after the release of a single synaptic vesicle may show a ten-fold variation in the whole population of synapses. When individual synapses are considered, there is also a stochastical variability that is maximal in small synapses with low numbers of receptors. The number of postsynaptic receptors and the size of the synaptic junction are the most influential parameters, while the packing density of receptors or the concentration of extrasynaptic transporters have little or no influence on the opening of AMPA receptors. PMID:26107874

X-ray Source Populations in Old Open Clusters - Collinder 261

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vats, Smriti

2014-11-01

We are carrying out an X-ray survey of old open clusters (OCs) with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Single old stars emit very faint X-rays, making X-rays produced by mass transfer in CVs, or by rapid rotation of the stars in tidally-locked, detached binaries detectable, without contamination from single stars. By comparing properties of interacting binaries in different environments, we aim to study binary evolution, and how dynamical encounters with other cluster members affect it. Collinder (Cr) 261 is an old OC(~7Gyr), with one of the richest populations inferred, of close binary populations and blue stragglers of all OCs. We will present the first results, detailing the X-ray population of Cr 261, in conjugation with other OCs, and in comparison with populations in globular clusters.

Public opinion by a poll process: model study and Bayesian view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun Keun; Kim, Yong Woon

2018-05-01

We study the formation of public opinion in a poll process where the current score is open to the public. The voters are assumed to vote probabilistically for or against their own preference considering the group opinion collected up to then in the score. The poll-score probability is found to follow the beta distribution in the large polls limit. We demonstrate that various poll results, even those contradictory to the population preference, are possible with non-zero probability density and that such deviations are readily triggered by initial bias. It is mentioned that our poll model can be understood in the Bayesian viewpoint.

Effectiveness of open versus endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in population settings: A systematic review of statewide databases.

PubMed

Williams, Christopher R; Brooke, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Patient outcomes after open abdominal aortic aneurysm and endovascular aortic aneurysm repair have been widely reported from several large, randomized, controlled trials. It is not clear whether these trial outcomes are representative of abdominal aortic aneurysm repair procedures performed in real-world hospital settings across the United States. This study was designed to evaluate population-based outcomes after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair versus open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using statewide inpatient databases and examine how they have helped improve our understanding of abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases was performed to identify articles comparing endovascular aortic aneurysm repair and open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using data from statewide inpatient databases. This search was limited to studies published in the English language after 1990, and abstracts were screened and abstracted by 2 authors. Our search yielded 17 studies published between 2004 and 2016 that used data from 29 different statewide inpatient databases to compare endovascular aortic aneurysm repair versus open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. These studies support the randomized, controlled trial results, including a lower mortality associated with endovascular aortic aneurysm repair extended from the perioperative period up to 3 years after operation, as well as a higher complication rate after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair. The evidence from statewide inpatient database analyses has also elucidated trends in procedure volume, patient case mix, volume-outcome relationships, and health care disparities associated with endovascular aortic aneurysm repair versus open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Population analyses of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair and open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using statewide inpatient databases have confirmed short- and long-term mortality outcomes obtained from large, randomized, controlled trials. Moreover, these analyses have allowed us to assess the effect of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair adoption on population outcomes and patient case mix over time. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Learner Groups in Massive Open Online Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arora, Skand; Goel, Manav; Sabitha, A. Sai; Mehrotra, Deepti

2017-01-01

The open nature of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) attracts a large number of learners with different backgrounds, skills, motivations, and goals. This has brought a need to understand such heterogeneity in populations of MOOC learners. Categorizing these learners based upon their interaction with the course can help address this need and…

Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture–recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Nichols, James D.; Barker, Richard J.; Pradel, Roger; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2009-01-01

Many fields of science begin with a phase of exploration and description, followed by investigations of the processes that account for observed patterns. The science of ecology is no exception, and recent decades have seen a focus on understanding key processes underlying the dynamics of ecological systems. In population ecology, emphasis has shifted from the state variable of population size to the demographic processes responsible for changes in this state variable: birth, death, immigration, and emigration. In evolutionary ecology, some of these same demographic processes, rates of birth and death, are also the determinants of fitness. In animal population ecology, the estimation of state variables and their associated vital rates is especially problematic because of the difficulties in sampling such populations and detecting individual animals. Indeed, early capture–recapture models were developed for the purpose of estimating population size, given the reality that all animals are not caught or detected at any sampling occasion. More recently, capture–recapture models for open populations were developed to draw inferences about survival in the face of these same sampling problems. The focus of this paper is on multi‐state mark–recapture models (MSMR), which first appeared in the 1970s but have undergone substantial development in the last 15 years. These models were developed to deal explicitly with biological variation, in that animals in different “states” (classes defined by location, physiology, behavior, reproductive status, etc.) may have different probabilities of survival and detection. Animal transitions between states are also stochastic and themselves of interest. These general models have proven to be extremely useful and provide a way of thinking about a remarkably wide range of important ecological processes. These methods are now at a stage of refinement and sophistication where they can readily be used by biologists to tackle a wide range of important issues in ecology. In this paper, we draw together information on the state of the art in multistate mark–recapture methods, explaining the models and illustrating their use. We provide a modeling philosophy and a series of general principles on how to conduct analyses. We cover key issues and features, and we anticipate the ways in which we expect the models to develop in the years ahead.

Strategies for Development of Palliative Care From the Perspectives of General Population and Health Care Professionals: A Japanese Outreach Palliative Care Trial of Integrated Regional Model Study.

PubMed

Yoshida, Saran; Miyashita, Mitsunori; Morita, Tatsuya; Akizuki, Nobuya; Akiyama, Miki; Shirahige, Yutaka; Ichikawa, Takayuki; Eguchi, Kenji

2015-09-01

This study primarily aimed to identify future actions required to promote palliative care in Japan. The future actions regarded as effective by the general population were "improve physicians' skill in palliative care" (61%), "create a counseling center for cancer" (61%), and "improve nurses' skill in palliative care" (60%). In contrast, future actions regarded as effective by the health care professionals were "set up a Web site that provides information about cancer" (72%), "promote consultation with specialists in palliative care" (71%), and "open an outpatient department specializing in palliative care" (70%). The results suggest (1) development and maintenance of settings; (2) enhancement of palliative care education and training programs for health care providers; and (3) improvement in distributing information about cancer and regional palliative care resources to the general population. © The Author(s) 2014.

Undecidability and Irreducibility Conditions for Open-Ended Evolution and Emergence.

PubMed

Hernández-Orozco, Santiago; Hernández-Quiroz, Francisco; Zenil, Hector

2018-01-01

Is undecidability a requirement for open-ended evolution (OEE)? Using methods derived from algorithmic complexity theory, we propose robust computational definitions of open-ended evolution and the adaptability of computable dynamical systems. Within this framework, we show that decidability imposes absolute limits on the stable growth of complexity in computable dynamical systems. Conversely, systems that exhibit (strong) open-ended evolution must be undecidable, establishing undecidability as a requirement for such systems. Complexity is assessed in terms of three measures: sophistication, coarse sophistication, and busy beaver logical depth. These three complexity measures assign low complexity values to random (incompressible) objects. As time grows, the stated complexity measures allow for the existence of complex states during the evolution of a computable dynamical system. We show, however, that finding these states involves undecidable computations. We conjecture that for similar complexity measures that assign low complexity values, decidability imposes comparable limits on the stable growth of complexity, and that such behavior is necessary for nontrivial evolutionary systems. We show that the undecidability of adapted states imposes novel and unpredictable behavior on the individuals or populations being modeled. Such behavior is irreducible. Finally, we offer an example of a system, first proposed by Chaitin, that exhibits strong OEE.

New tools for linking human and earth system models: The Toolbox for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (THESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Kauffman, B.; Lawrence, P.

2016-12-01

Integrated analysis of questions regarding land, water, and energy resources often requires integration of models of different types. One type of integration is between human and earth system models, since both societal and physical processes influence these resources. For example, human processes such as changes in population, economic conditions, and policies govern the demand for land, water and energy, while the interactions of these resources with physical systems determine their availability and environmental consequences. We have begun to develop and use a toolkit for linking human and earth system models called the Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration and Scaling (THESIS). THESIS consists of models and software tools to translate, scale, and synthesize information from and between human system models and earth system models (ESMs), with initial application to linking the NCAR integrated assessment model, iPETS, with the NCAR earth system model, CESM. Initial development is focused on urban areas and agriculture, sectors that are both explicitly represented in both CESM and iPETS. Tools are being made available to the community as they are completed (see https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sections/tss/iam/THESIS_tools). We discuss four general types of functions that THESIS tools serve (Spatial Distribution, Spatial Properties, Consistency, and Outcome Evaluation). Tools are designed to be modular and can be combined in order to carry out more complex analyses. We illustrate their application to both the exposure of population to climate extremes and to the evaluation of climate impacts on the agriculture sector. For example, projecting exposure to climate extremes involves use of THESIS tools for spatial population, spatial urban land cover, the characteristics of both, and a tool to bring urban climate information together with spatial population information. Development of THESIS tools is continuing and open to the research community.

Directional selection effects on patterns of phenotypic (co)variation in wild populations.

PubMed

Assis, A P A; Patton, J L; Hubbe, A; Marroig, G

2016-11-30

Phenotypic (co)variation is a prerequisite for evolutionary change, and understanding how (co)variation evolves is of crucial importance to the biological sciences. Theoretical models predict that under directional selection, phenotypic (co)variation should evolve in step with the underlying adaptive landscape, increasing the degree of correlation among co-selected traits as well as the amount of genetic variance in the direction of selection. Whether either of these outcomes occurs in natural populations is an open question and thus an important gap in evolutionary theory. Here, we documented changes in the phenotypic (co)variation structure in two separate natural populations in each of two chipmunk species (Tamias alpinus and T. speciosus) undergoing directional selection. In populations where selection was strongest (those of T. alpinus), we observed changes, at least for one population, in phenotypic (co)variation that matched theoretical expectations, namely an increase of both phenotypic integration and (co)variance in the direction of selection and a re-alignment of the major axis of variation with the selection gradient. © 2016 The Author(s).

Indoor respirable particulate matter concentrations from an open fire, improved cookstove, and LPG/open fire combination in a rural Guatemalan community.

PubMed

Albalak, R; Bruce, N; McCracken, J P; Smith, K R; De Gallardo, T

2001-07-01

Improved biomass cookstoves have the potential to reduce pollutant emissions and thereby reduce pollution exposure among populations in developing countries who cook daily with biomass fuels. However, evaluation of such interventions has been very limited. This article presents results from a study carried out in 30 households in rural Guatemala. Twenty-four hour PM3.5 concentrations were compared over 8 months for three fuel/cookstove conditions (n = 10 households for each condition): a traditional open fire cookstove, an improved cookstove called the plancha mejorada, and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stove/open fire combination. Twenty-four hour geometric mean PM3.5 concentrations were 1560 micrograms/m3 (n = 58; 95% C.I. 1310, 1850), 280 micrograms/m3 (n = 59; 95% C.I. 240-320), and 850 micrograms/m3 (n = 60; 95% C.I. 680-1050) for the open fire, plancha, and LPG/open fire combination, respectively. A generalized estimating equation model showed a 45% reduction in PM3.5 concentrations for the LPG/open fire combination as compared to the open fire alone. The difference approached significance (p < 0.0737). The plancha showed an 85% reduction in PM3.5 concentrations as compared to the open fire (p < 0.0001). An analysis of the interaction of time with stove type showed that the temporal trend in pollution did not significantly differ among the three stove types. The reduced PM3.5 concentrations were maintained over time. Season did not affect pollutant concentrations. Of the two interventions, the plancha appears to offer the best prospects for achieving substantial reductions in indoor air pollution levels, although issues of cost and stove maintenance remain to be addressed.

Determining the frequency of open windows in motor vehicles: a pilot study using a video camera in Houston, Texas during high temperature conditions.

PubMed

Long, Tom; Johnson, Ted; Ollison, Will

2002-05-01

Researchers have developed a variety of computer-based models to estimate population exposure to air pollution. These models typically estimate exposures by simulating the movement of specific population groups through defined microenvironments. Exposures in the motor vehicle microenvironment are significantly affected by air exchange rate, which in turn is affected by vehicle speed, window position, vent status, and air conditioning use. A pilot study was conducted in Houston, Texas, during September 2000 for a specific set of weather, vehicle speed, and road type conditions to determine whether useful information on the position of windows, sunroofs, and convertible tops could be obtained through the use of video cameras. Monitoring was conducted at three sites (two arterial roads and one interstate highway) on the perimeter of Harris County located in or near areas not subject to mandated Inspection and Maintenance programs. Each site permitted an elevated view of vehicles as they proceeded through a turn, thereby exposing all windows to the stationary video camera. Five videotaping sessions were conducted over a two-day period in which the Heat Index (HI)-a function of temperature and humidity-varied from 80 to 101 degrees F and vehicle speed varied from 30 to 74 mph. The resulting videotapes were processed to create a master database listing vehicle-specific data for site location, date, time, vehicle type (e.g., minivan), color, window configuration (e.g., four windows and sunroof), number of windows in each of three position categories (fully open, partially open, and closed), HI, and speed. Of the 758 vehicles included in the database, 140 (18.5 percent) were labeled as "open," indicating a window, sunroof, or convertible top was fully or partially open. The results of a series of stepwise linear regression analyses indicated that the probability of a vehicle in the master database being "open" was weakly affected by time of day, vehicle type, vehicle color, vehicle speed, and HI. In particular, open windows occurred more frequently when vehicle speed was less than 50 mph during periods when HI exceeded 99.9 degrees F and the vehicle was a minivan or passenger van. Overall, the pilot study demonstrated that data on factors affecting vehicle window position could be acquired through a relatively simple experimental protocol using a single video camera. Limitations of the study requiring further research include the inability to determine the status of the vehicle air conditioning system; lack of a wide range of weather, vehicle speed, and road type conditions; and the need to exclude some vehicles from statistical analyses due to ambiguous window positions.

Discrete and continuum links to a nonlinear coupled transport problem of interacting populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, M. H.; Muntean, A.; Richardson, O. M.

2017-07-01

We are interested in exploring interacting particle systems that can be seen as microscopic models for a particular structure of coupled transport flux arising when different populations are jointly evolving. The scenarios we have in mind are inspired by the dynamics of pedestrian flows in open spaces and are intimately connected to cross-diffusion and thermo-diffusion problems holding a variational structure. The tools we use include a suitable structure of the relative entropy controlling TV-norms, the construction of Lyapunov functionals and particular closed-form solutions to nonlinear transport equations, a hydrodynamics limiting procedure due to Philipowski, as well as the construction of numerical approximates to both the continuum limit problem in 2D and to the original interacting particle systems.

Population Estimation in Singapore Based on Remote Sensing and Open Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Cao, K.; Wang, P.

2017-09-01

Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI) is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map OSM could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

Estimating open population site occupancy from presence-absence data lacking the robust design.

PubMed

Dail, D; Madsen, L

2013-03-01

Many animal monitoring studies seek to estimate the proportion of a study area occupied by a target population. The study area is divided into spatially distinct sites where the detected presence or absence of the population is recorded, and this is repeated in time for multiple seasons. However, when occupied sites are detected with probability p < 1, the lack of a detection does not imply lack of occupancy. MacKenzie et al. (2003, Ecology 84, 2200-2207) developed a multiseason model for estimating seasonal site occupancy (ψt ) while accounting for unknown p. Their model performs well when observations are collected according to the robust design, where multiple sampling occasions occur during each season; the repeated sampling aids in the estimation p. However, their model does not perform as well when the robust design is lacking. In this paper, we propose an alternative likelihood model that yields improved seasonal estimates of p and Ψt in the absence of the robust design. We construct the marginal likelihood of the observed data by conditioning on, and summing out, the latent number of occupied sites during each season. A simulation study shows that in cases without the robust design, the proposed model estimates p with less bias than the MacKenzie et al. model and hence improves the estimates of Ψt . We apply both models to a data set consisting of repeated presence-absence observations of American robins (Turdus migratorius) with yearly survey periods. The two models are compared to a third estimator available when the repeated counts (from the same study) are considered, with the proposed model yielding estimates of Ψt closest to estimates from the point count model. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Inter-Individual Variability in High-Throughput Risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We incorporate realistic human variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which have little or no existing TK data. Chemicals are prioritized based on model estimates of hazard and exposure, to decide which chemicals should be first in line for further study. Hazard may be estimated with in vitro HT screening assays, e.g., U.S. EPA’s ToxCast program. Bioactive ToxCast concentrations can be extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse TK approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. Here we draw physiological parameters from realistic estimates of distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities in the modern U.S. population, based on the most recent CDC NHANES data. A Monte Carlo approach, accounting for the correlation structure in physiological parameters, is used to estimate ToxCast equivalent doses for the most sensitive portion of the population. To quantify risk, ToxCast equivalent doses are compared to estimates of exposure rates based on Bayesian inferences drawn from NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion

Statistical physics of the spatial Prisoner's Dilemma with memory-aware agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javarone, Marco Alberto

2016-02-01

We introduce an analytical model to study the evolution towards equilibrium in spatial games, with `memory-aware' agents, i.e., agents that accumulate their payoff over time. In particular, we focus our attention on the spatial Prisoner's Dilemma, as it constitutes an emblematic example of a game whose Nash equilibrium is defection. Previous investigations showed that, under opportune conditions, it is possible to reach, in the evolutionary Prisoner's Dilemma, an equilibrium of cooperation. Notably, it seems that mechanisms like motion may lead a population to become cooperative. In the proposed model, we map agents to particles of a gas so that, on varying the system temperature, they randomly move. In doing so, we are able to identify a relation between the temperature and the final equilibrium of the population, explaining how it is possible to break the classical Nash equilibrium in the spatial Prisoner's Dilemma when considering agents able to increase their payoff over time. Moreover, we introduce a formalism to study order-disorder phase transitions in these dynamics. As result, we highlight that the proposed model allows to explain analytically how a population, whose interactions are based on the Prisoner's Dilemma, can reach an equilibrium far from the expected one; opening also the way to define a direct link between evolutionary game theory and statistical physics.

Invasion of cooperators in lattice populations: linear and non-linear public good games.

PubMed

Vásárhelyi, Zsóka; Scheuring, István

2013-08-01

A generalized version of the N-person volunteer's dilemma (NVD) Game has been suggested recently for illustrating the problem of N-person social dilemmas. Using standard replicator dynamics it can be shown that coexistence of cooperators and defectors is typical in this model. However, the question of how a rare mutant cooperator could invade a population of defectors is still open. Here we examined the dynamics of individual based stochastic models of the NVD. We analyze the dynamics in well-mixed and viscous populations. We show in both cases that coexistence between cooperators and defectors is possible; moreover, spatial aggregation of types in viscous populations can easily lead to pure cooperation. Furthermore we analyze the invasion of cooperators in populations consisting predominantly of defectors. In accordance with analytical results, in deterministic systems, we found the invasion of cooperators successful in the well-mixed case only if their initial concentration was higher than a critical threshold, defined by the replicator dynamics of the NVD. In the viscous case, however, not the initial concentration but the initial number determines the success of invasion. We show that even a single mutant cooperator can invade with a high probability, because the local density of aggregated cooperators exceeds the threshold defined by the game. Comparing the results to models using different benefit functions (linear or sigmoid), we show that the role of the benefit function is much more important in the well-mixed than in the viscous case. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

The reality and importance of founder speciation in evolution.

PubMed

Templeton, Alan R

2008-05-01

A founder event occurs when a new population is established from a small number of individuals drawn from a large ancestral population. Mayr proposed that genetic drift in an isolated founder population could alter the selective forces in an epistatic system, an observation supported by recent studies. Carson argued that a period of relaxed selection could occur when a founder population is in an open ecological niche, allowing rapid population growth after the founder event. Selectable genetic variation can actually increase during this founder-flush phase due to recombination, enhanced survival of advantageous mutations, and the conversion of non-additive genetic variance into additive variance in an epistatic system, another empirically confirmed prediction. Templeton combined the theories of Mayr and Carson with population genetic models to predict the conditions under which founder events can contribute to speciation, and these predictions are strongly confirmed by the empirical literature. Much of the criticism of founder speciation is based upon equating founder speciation to an adaptive peak shift opposed by selection. However, Mayr, Carson and Templeton all modeled a positive interaction of selection and drift, and Templeton showed that founder speciation is incompatible with peak-shift conditions. Although rare, founder speciation can have a disproportionate importance in adaptive innovation and radiation, and examples are given to show that "rare" does not mean "unimportant" in evolution. Founder speciation also interacts with other speciation mechanisms such that a speciation event is not a one-dimensional process due to either selection alone or drift alone. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Conspecific and not performance-based attraction on immigrants drives colony growth in a waterbird.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Fasola, Mauro; Volponi, Stefano; Tavecchia, Giacomo

2017-09-01

Local recruitment and immigration play an important part in the dynamics and growth of animal populations. However, their estimation and incorporation into open population models is, in most cases, problematic. We studied factors affecting the growth of a recently established colony of Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia) and assessed the contribution of local recruits, i.e. birds born in the colony, and immigrants, i.e. birds of unknown origin, to colony growth. We applied an integrated population model that accounts for uncertainty in breeding state assignment and merges population surveys, local fecundity and individual longitudinal data of breeding and non-breeding birds, to estimate demographic rates and the relative role of recruitment and immigration in driving the local dynamics. We also used this analytical framework to assess the degree of support for the 'performance-based' and 'conspecific attraction' hypotheses as possible mechanisms of colony growth. Among the demographic rates, only immigration was positively and significantly correlated with population growth rate. In addition, the number of immigrants settling in the colony was positively correlated with colony size in the previous and current year, but was not correlated with fecundity of the previous year. Our results suggest that the variation in immigration affected colony dynamics and that conspecific attraction likely triggered the relevant role of immigration in the growth of a recently formed waterbird colony, supporting the need of including immigration in population analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

A Large-scale Plume in an X-class Solar Flare

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fleishman, Gregory D.; Nita, Gelu M.; Gary, Dale E.

Ever-increasing multi-frequency imaging of solar observations suggests that solar flares often involve more than one magnetic fluxtube. Some of the fluxtubes are closed, while others can contain open fields. The relative proportion of nonthermal electrons among those distinct loops is highly important for understanding energy release, particle acceleration, and transport. The access of nonthermal electrons to the open field is also important because the open field facilitates the solar energetic particle (SEP) escape from the flaring site, and thus controls the SEP fluxes in the solar system, both directly and as seed particles for further acceleration. The large-scale fluxtubes aremore » often filled with a tenuous plasma, which is difficult to detect in either EUV or X-ray wavelengths; however, they can dominate at low radio frequencies, where a modest component of nonthermal electrons can render the source optically thick and, thus, bright enough to be observed. Here we report the detection of a large-scale “plume” at the impulsive phase of an X-class solar flare, SOL2001-08-25T16:23, using multi-frequency radio data from Owens Valley Solar Array. To quantify the flare’s spatial structure, we employ 3D modeling utilizing force-free-field extrapolations from the line of sight SOHO /MDI magnetograms with our modeling tool GX-Simulator. We found that a significant fraction of the nonthermal electrons that accelerated at the flare site low in the corona escapes to the plume, which contains both closed and open fields. We propose that the proportion between the closed and open fields at the plume is what determines the SEP population escaping into interplanetary space.« less

Distribution and demography of San Francisco gartersnakes (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) at Mindego Ranch, Russian Ridge Open Space Preserve, San Mateo County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kim, Richard; Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.

2018-04-26

San Francisco gartersnakes (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) are a subspecies of common gartersnakes endemic to the San Francisco Peninsula of northern California. Because of habitat loss and collection for the pet trade, San Francisco gartersnakes were listed as endangered under the precursor to the Federal Endangered Species Act. A population of San Francisco gartersnakes resides at Mindego Ranch, San Mateo County, which is part of the Russian Ridge Open Space Preserve owned and managed by the Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District (MROSD). Because the site contained non-native fishes and American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus), MROSD implemented management to eliminate or reduce the abundance of these non-native species in 2014. We monitored the population using capture-mark-recapture techniques to document changes in the population during and following management actions. Although drought confounded some aspects of inference about the effects of management, prey and San Francisco gartersnake populations generally increased following draining of Aquatic Feature 3. Continued management of the site to keep invasive aquatic predators from recolonizing or increasing in abundance, as well as vegetation management that promotes heterogeneous grassland/shrubland near wetlands, likely would benefit this population of San Francisco gartersnakes.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

2016-12-01

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

Regularity of beating of small clusters of embryonic chick ventricular heart-cells: experiment vs. stochastic single-channel population model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh-Madsen, Trine; Kold Taylor, Louise; Skriver, Anne D.; Schaffer, Peter; Guevara, Michael R.

2017-09-01

The transmembrane potential is recorded from small isopotential clusters of 2-4 embryonic chick ventricular cells spontaneously generating action potentials. We analyze the cycle-to-cycle fluctuations in the time between successive action potentials (the interbeat interval or IBI). We also convert an existing model of electrical activity in the cluster, which is formulated as a Hodgkin-Huxley-like deterministic system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing five individual ionic currents, into a stochastic model consisting of a population of ˜20 000 independently and randomly gating ionic channels, with the randomness being set by a real physical stochastic process (radio static). This stochastic model, implemented using the Clay-DeFelice algorithm, reproduces the fluctuations seen experimentally: e.g., the coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean) of IBI is 4.3% in the model vs. the 3.9% average value of the 17 clusters studied. The model also replicates all but one of several other quantitative measures of the experimental results, including the power spectrum and correlation integral of the voltage, as well as the histogram, Poincaré plot, serial correlation coefficients, power spectrum, detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, and sample entropy of IBI. The channel noise from one particular ionic current (IKs), which has channel kinetics that are relatively slow compared to that of the other currents, makes the major contribution to the fluctuations in IBI. Reproduction of the experimental coefficient of variation of IBI by adding a Gaussian white noise-current into the deterministic model necessitates using an unrealistically high noise-current amplitude. Indeed, a major implication of the modelling results is that, given the wide range of time-scales over which the various species of channels open and close, only a cell-specific stochastic model that is formulated taking into consideration the widely different ranges in the frequency content of the channel-noise produced by the opening and closing of several different types of channels will be able to reproduce precisely the various effects due to membrane noise seen in a particular electrophysiological preparation.

Measurement of the distribution of non-structural carbohydrate composition in onion populations by a high-throughput microplate enzymatic assay.

PubMed

Revanna, Roopashree; Turnbull, Matthew H; Shaw, Martin L; Wright, Kathryn M; Butler, Ruth C; Jameson, Paula E; McCallum, John A

2013-08-15

Non-structural carbohydrate (NSC; glucose, fructose, sucrose and fructan) composition of onions (Allium cepa L.) varies widely and is a key determinant of market usage. To analyse the physiology and genetics of onion carbohydrate metabolism and to enable selective breeding, an inexpensive, reliable and practicable sugar assay is required to phenotype large numbers of samples. A rapid, reliable and cost-effective microplate-based assay was developed for NSC analysis in onions and used to characterise variation in tissue hexose, sucrose and fructan content in open-pollinated breeding populations and in mapping populations developed from a wide onion cross. Sucrose measured in microplates employing maltase as a hydrolytic enzyme was in agreement with HPLC-PAD results. The method revealed significant variation in bulb fructan content within open-pollinated 'Pukekohe Longkeeper' breeding populations over a threefold range. Very wide segregation from 80 to 600 g kg(-1) in fructan content was observed in bulbs of F2 genetic mapping populations from the wide onion cross 'Nasik Red × CUDH2150'. The microplate enzymatic assay is a reliable and practicable method for onion sugar analysis for genetics, breeding and food technology. Open-pollinated onion populations may harbour extensive within-population variability in carbohydrate content, which may be quantified and exploited using this method. The phenotypic data obtained from genetic mapping populations show that the method is well suited to detailed genetic and physiological analysis. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Teaching New Keynesian Open Economy Macroeconomics at the Intermediate Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bofinger, Peter; Mayer, Eric; Wollmershauser, Timo

2009-01-01

For the open economy, the workhorse model in intermediate textbooks still is the Mundell-Fleming model, which basically extends the investment and savings, liquidity preference and money supply (IS-LM) model to open economy problems. The authors present a simple New Keynesian model of the open economy that introduces open economy considerations…

Impact of a Casino Opening on Gambling Behaviors of People Engaged in Methadone Maintenance.

PubMed

Palmer-Bacon, Jessica; Miles-McLean, Haley; Welsh, Christopher; Rugle, Loreen; Medoff, Deborah; Potts, Wendy; Himelhoch, Seth

2017-06-01

This study examined gambling behavior in the context of a newly opening casino, comparing disordered gamblers to non-disordered gamblers, in a population of individuals involved in methadone maintenance treatment. Disordered gamblers (N = 50) and non-disordered gamblers (N = 50) were surveyed before and after the opening of a new casino on gambling behaviors, substance use, and psychological symptoms. No statistically significant changes in gambling behaviors were observed for disordered gamblers or non-disordered gamblers across time points; however, non-disordered gamblers demonstrated non-significant increases in horse and dog race betting, electronic games, and casino table games. As expected, disordered gamblers were found to spend significantly more money on electronic games and casino table games (p < 0.05) and demonstrated higher rates of drug use and impulsivity than non-disordered gamblers. The introduction of a new casino did not appear to have a major impact on gambling behaviors of individuals attending methadone maintenance treatment, though the non-significant increases in gambling among non-disordered gamblers may indicate that this population is preferentially impacted by the opening of a new casino. Future investigation into the longer term effects of opening a new casino on this population may be warranted.

Comparison of lower limb muscle strength between diabetic neuropathic and healthy subjects using OpenSim.

PubMed

Scarton, Alessandra; Jonkers, Ilse; Guiotto, Annamaria; Spolaor, Fabiola; Guarneri, Gabriella; Avogaro, Angelo; Cobelli, Claudio; Sawacha, Zimi

2017-10-01

Diabetes neuropathy and vasculopathy are the two major complications of diabetes mellitus, leading to diabetic foot disease, of which the worst consequences are plantar ulcers and amputations. Motor impairments like joint stiffness and loss of balance are distinctive effects of diabetes and they have been extensively explored. However, while altered muscle function has been also assessed through experimentally measured surface electromyography, little is known about muscle forces. The objective of this study was to estimate muscle forces in subjects with diabetes and to use these data to identify differences with respect to a population of healthy subjects matched for age and BMI. This was obtained by generating musculoskeletal models of 10 diabetic and 10 control subjects in OpenSim starting from experimentally recorded data. Dynamic simulations of motion were run and hence muscle forces calculated. Student T test (p<0.05) was used to compare joints kinematics, kinetics and muscle forces between the two populations. Significant changes were observed between lower limb muscle forces and activation of diabetic and healthy subjects, as well as between joints kinematics and kinetics. In particular muscles related to foot movements proved to be stronger in the healthy population. The typical ankle rigidity of the diabetic population was confirmed by a lower range of motion registered at the ankle plantar/flexion angle associated with weaker dorsal-plantar flexor muscles. The information provided by this methodology can help planning specific training programs aiming at augmenting muscle strength and joints mobility, and they can also improve the evaluation of the potential benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robotic Versus Open Renal Transplantation in Obese Patients: Protocol for a Cost-Benefit Markov Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Puttarajappa, Chethan; Wijkstrom, Martin; Ganoza, Armando; Lopez, Roberto; Tevar, Amit

2018-01-01

Background Recent studies have reported a significant decrease in wound problems and hospital stay in obese patients undergoing renal transplantation by robotic-assisted minimally invasive techniques with no difference in graft function. Objective Due to the lack of cost-benefit studies on the use of robotic-assisted renal transplantation versus open surgical procedure, the primary aim of our study is to develop a Markov model to analyze the cost-benefit of robotic surgery versus open traditional surgery in obese patients in need of a renal transplant. Methods Electronic searches will be conducted to identify studies comparing open renal transplantation versus robotic-assisted renal transplantation. Costs associated with the two surgical techniques will incorporate the expenses of the resources used for the operations. A decision analysis model will be developed to simulate a randomized controlled trial comparing three interventional arms: (1) continuation of renal replacement therapy for patients who are considered non-suitable candidates for renal transplantation due to obesity, (2) transplant recipients undergoing open transplant surgery, and (3) transplant patients undergoing robotic-assisted renal transplantation. TreeAge Pro 2017 R1 TreeAge Software, Williamstown, MA, USA) will be used to create a Markov model and microsimulation will be used to compare costs and benefits for the two competing surgical interventions. Results The model will simulate a randomized controlled trial of adult obese patients affected by end-stage renal disease undergoing renal transplantation. The absorbing state of the model will be patients' death from any cause. By choosing death as the absorbing state, we will be able simulate the population of renal transplant recipients from the day of their randomization to transplant surgery or continuation on renal replacement therapy to their death and perform sensitivity analysis around patients' age at the time of randomization to determine if age is a critical variable for cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis comparing renal replacement therapy, robotic-assisted surgery or open renal transplant surgery. After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. Conclusions After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. PMID:29519780

OpenFLUID: an open-source software environment for modelling fluxes in landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabre, Jean-Christophe; Rabotin, Michaël; Crevoisier, David; Libres, Aline; Dagès, Cécile; Moussa, Roger; Lagacherie, Philippe; Raclot, Damien; Voltz, Marc

2013-04-01

Integrative landscape functioning has become a common concept in environmental management. Landscapes are complex systems where many processes interact in time and space. In agro-ecosystems, these processes are mainly physical processes, including hydrological-processes, biological processes and human activities. Modelling such systems requires an interdisciplinary approach, coupling models coming from different disciplines, developed by different teams. In order to support collaborative works, involving many models coupled in time and space for integrative simulations, an open software modelling platform is a relevant answer. OpenFLUID is an open source software platform for modelling landscape functioning, mainly focused on spatial fluxes. It provides an advanced object-oriented architecture allowing to i) couple models developed de novo or from existing source code, and which are dynamically plugged to the platform, ii) represent landscapes as hierarchical graphs, taking into account multi-scale, spatial heterogeneities and landscape objects connectivity, iii) run and explore simulations in many ways : using the OpenFLUID software interfaces for users (command line interface, graphical user interface), or using external applications such as GNU R through the provided ROpenFLUID package. OpenFLUID is developed in C++ and relies on open source libraries only (Boost, libXML2, GLib/GTK, OGR/GDAL, …). For modelers and developers, OpenFLUID provides a dedicated environment for model development, which is based on an open source toolchain, including the Eclipse editor, the GCC compiler and the CMake build system. OpenFLUID is distributed under the GPLv3 open source license, with a special exception allowing to plug existing models licensed under any license. It is clearly in the spirit of sharing knowledge and favouring collaboration in a community of modelers. OpenFLUID has been involved in many research applications, such as modelling of hydrological network transfer, diagnosis and prediction of water quality taking into account human activities, study of the effect of spatial organization on hydrological fluxes, modelling of surface-subsurface water exchanges, … At LISAH research unit, OpenFLUID is the supporting development platform of the MHYDAS model, which is a distributed model for agrosystems (Moussa et al., 2002, Hydrological Processes, 16, 393-412). OpenFLUID web site : http://www.openfluid-project.org

Tracing back seed and pollen flow within the crop-wild Beta vulgaris complex: genetic distinctiveness vs. hot spots of hybridization over a regional scale.

PubMed

Viard, Frédérique; Arnaud, Jean-François; Delescluse, Maxime; Cuguen, Joël

2004-06-01

Hybrids between transgenic crops and wild relatives have been documented successfully in a wide range of cultivated species, having implications on conservation and biosafety management. Nonetheless, the magnitude and frequency of hybridization in the wild is still an open question, in particular when considering several populations at the landscape level. The Beta vulgaris complex provides an excellent biological model to tackle this issue. Weed beets contaminating sugar beet fields are expected to act as a relay between wild populations and crops and from crops-to-crops. In one major European sugar beet production area, nine wild populations and 12 weed populations were genetically characterized using cytoplasmic markers specific to the cultivated lines and nuclear microsatellite loci. A tremendous overall genetic differentiation between neighbouring wild and weed populations was depicted. However, genetic admixture analyses at the individual level revealed clear evidence for gene flow between wild and weed populations. In particular, one wild population displayed a high magnitude of nuclear genetic admixture, reinforced by direct seed flow as evidenced by cytoplasmic markers. Altogether, weed beets were shown to act as relay for gene flow between crops to wild populations and crops to crops by pollen and seeds at a landscape level.

High Prevalence of Narrow Angles among Chinese-American Glaucoma and Glaucoma Suspect Patients

PubMed Central

Seider, Michael I; Pekmezci, Melike; Han, Ying; Sandhu, Simi; Kwok, Shiu Y; Lee, Roland Y; Lin, Shan C

2009-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the prevalence of gonioscopically narrow angles in a Chinese-American population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion. Patients and Methods Charts from all Chinese-American patients seen in a comprehensive ophthalmology clinic in the Chinatown district of San Francisco in 2002 were reviewed. One eye from each patient with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion that met inclusion criteria was included (n=108). Data was collected for gender, age, race (self-declared), refraction (spherical equivalent), intraocular pressure (IOP), gonioscopy and vertical cup-to-disk ratio (CDR). Results Sixty percent (n=65) of Chinese-American eyes with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles (Shaffer grade ≤2 in three or more quadrants). Those with narrow angles were significantly older (P=0.004) than their open angle counterparts, but the two groups did not differ in terms of gender, refraction, IOP or CDR (all, P≥0.071). In a multivariate model including age, gender and refraction as predictors of angle grade (open or narrow), only age was a significant predictor of angle grade (P=0.004). Conclusions A large proportion of Chinese-Americans in our study population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles. In multivariate analysis, patients with narrow angles were older than those with open angles but did not differ from them in terms of gender or refraction. Continued evaluation of angle closure glaucoma risk among Chinese-Americans is needed. PMID:19826385

Predicting High Health Care Resource Utilization in a Single-payer Public Health Care System: Development and Validation of the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT).

PubMed

Rosella, Laura C; Kornas, Kathy; Yao, Zhan; Manuel, Douglas G; Bornbaum, Catherine; Fransoo, Randall; Stukel, Therese

2017-11-17

A large proportion of health care spending is incurred by a small proportion of the population. Population-based health planning tools that consider both the clinical and upstream determinants of high resource users (HRU) of the health system are lacking. To develop and validate the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT), a predictive model of adults that will become the top 5% of health care users over a 5-year period, based on self-reported clinical, sociodemographic, and health behavioral predictors in population survey data. The HRUPoRT model was developed in a prospective cohort design using the combined 2005 and 2007/2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys (CCHS) (N=58,617), and validated using the external 2009/2010 CCHS cohort (N=28,721). Health care utilization for each of the 5 years following CCHS interview date were determined by applying a person-centered costing algorithm to the linked health administrative databases. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed using c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) χ statistic. The best prediction model for 5-year transition to HRU status included 12 predictors and had good discrimination (c-statistic=0.8213) and calibration (HL χ=18.71) in the development cohort. The model performed similarly in the validation cohort (c-statistic=0.8171; HL χ=19.95). The strongest predictors in the HRUPoRT model were age, perceived general health, and body mass index. HRUPoRT can accurately project the proportion of individuals in the population that will become a HRU over 5 years. HRUPoRT can be applied to inform health resource planning and prevention strategies at the community level.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

National Geothermal Data System (USA): an Exemplar of Open Access to Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, M. Lee; Richard, Stephen; Blackman, Harold; Anderson, Arlene; Patten, Kim

2014-05-01

The National Geothermal Data System's (NGDS - www.geothermaldata.org) formal launch in April, 2014 will provide open access to millions of data records, sharing -relevant geoscience and longer term to land use data to propel geothermal development and production. NGDS serves information from all of the U.S. Department of Energy's sponsored development and research projects and geologic data from all 50 states, using free and open source software. This interactive online system is opening new exploration opportunities and potentially shortening project development by making data easily discoverable, accessible, and interoperable. We continue to populate our prototype functional data system with multiple data nodes and nationwide data online and available to the public. Data from state geological surveys and partners includes more than 6 million records online, including 1.72 million well headers (oil and gas, water, geothermal), 670,000 well logs, and 497,000 borehole temperatures and is growing rapidly. There are over 312 interoperable Web services and another 106 WMS (Web Map Services) registered in the system as of January, 2014. Companion projects run by Southern Methodist University and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are adding millions of additional data records. The DOE Geothermal Data Repository, currently hosted on OpenEI, is a system node and clearinghouse for data from hundreds of U.S. DOE-funded geothermal projects. NGDS is built on the US Geoscience Information Network (USGIN) data integration framework, which is a joint undertaking of the USGS and the Association of American State Geologists (AASG). NGDS complies with the White House Executive Order of May 2013, requiring all federal agencies to make their data holdings publicly accessible online in open source, interoperable formats with common core and extensible metadata. The National Geothermal Data System is being designed, built, deployed, and populated primarily with support from the US Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office. To keep this system operational after the original implementation will require four core elements: continued serving of data and applications by providers; maintenance of system operations; a governance structure; and an effective business model. Each of these presents a number of challenges currently under consideration.

SLUG - stochastically lighting up galaxies - III. A suite of tools for simulated photometry, spectroscopy, and Bayesian inference with stochastic stellar populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.; Fumagalli, Michele; da Silva, Robert L.; Rendahl, Theodore; Parra, Jonathan

2015-09-01

Stellar population synthesis techniques for predicting the observable light emitted by a stellar population have extensive applications in numerous areas of astronomy. However, accurate predictions for small populations of young stars, such as those found in individual star clusters, star-forming dwarf galaxies, and small segments of spiral galaxies, require that the population be treated stochastically. Conversely, accurate deductions of the properties of such objects also require consideration of stochasticity. Here we describe a comprehensive suite of modular, open-source software tools for tackling these related problems. These include the following: a greatly-enhanced version of the SLUG code introduced by da Silva et al., which computes spectra and photometry for stochastically or deterministically sampled stellar populations with nearly arbitrary star formation histories, clustering properties, and initial mass functions; CLOUDY_SLUG, a tool that automatically couples SLUG-computed spectra with the CLOUDY radiative transfer code in order to predict stochastic nebular emission; BAYESPHOT, a general-purpose tool for performing Bayesian inference on the physical properties of stellar systems based on unresolved photometry; and CLUSTER_SLUG and SFR_SLUG, a pair of tools that use BAYESPHOT on a library of SLUG models to compute the mass, age, and extinction of mono-age star clusters, and the star formation rate of galaxies, respectively. The latter two tools make use of an extensive library of pre-computed stellar population models, which are included in the software. The complete package is available at http://www.slugsps.com.

Cervical Spine Injuries: A Whole-Body Musculoskeletal Model for the Analysis of Spinal Loading.

PubMed

Cazzola, Dario; Holsgrove, Timothy P; Preatoni, Ezio; Gill, Harinderjit S; Trewartha, Grant

2017-01-01

Cervical spine trauma from sport or traffic collisions can have devastating consequences for individuals and a high societal cost. The precise mechanisms of such injuries are still unknown as investigation is hampered by the difficulty in experimentally replicating the conditions under which these injuries occur. We harness the benefits of computer simulation to report on the creation and validation of i) a generic musculoskeletal model (MASI) for the analyses of cervical spine loading in healthy subjects, and ii) a population-specific version of the model (Rugby Model), for investigating cervical spine injury mechanisms during rugby activities. The musculoskeletal models were created in OpenSim, and validated against in vivo data of a healthy subject and a rugby player performing neck and upper limb movements. The novel aspects of the Rugby Model comprise i) population-specific inertial properties and muscle parameters representing rugby forward players, and ii) a custom scapula-clavicular joint that allows the application of multiple external loads. We confirm the utility of the developed generic and population-specific models via verification steps and validation of kinematics, joint moments and neuromuscular activations during rugby scrummaging and neck functional movements, which achieve results comparable with in vivo and in vitro data. The Rugby Model was validated and used for the first time to provide insight into anatomical loading and cervical spine injury mechanisms related to rugby, whilst the MASI introduces a new computational tool to allow investigation of spinal injuries arising from other sporting activities, transport, and ergonomic applications. The models used in this study are freely available at simtk.org and allow to integrate in silico analyses with experimental approaches in injury prevention.

Cervical Spine Injuries: A Whole-Body Musculoskeletal Model for the Analysis of Spinal Loading

PubMed Central

Holsgrove, Timothy P.; Preatoni, Ezio; Gill, Harinderjit S.; Trewartha, Grant

2017-01-01

Cervical spine trauma from sport or traffic collisions can have devastating consequences for individuals and a high societal cost. The precise mechanisms of such injuries are still unknown as investigation is hampered by the difficulty in experimentally replicating the conditions under which these injuries occur. We harness the benefits of computer simulation to report on the creation and validation of i) a generic musculoskeletal model (MASI) for the analyses of cervical spine loading in healthy subjects, and ii) a population-specific version of the model (Rugby Model), for investigating cervical spine injury mechanisms during rugby activities. The musculoskeletal models were created in OpenSim, and validated against in vivo data of a healthy subject and a rugby player performing neck and upper limb movements. The novel aspects of the Rugby Model comprise i) population-specific inertial properties and muscle parameters representing rugby forward players, and ii) a custom scapula-clavicular joint that allows the application of multiple external loads. We confirm the utility of the developed generic and population-specific models via verification steps and validation of kinematics, joint moments and neuromuscular activations during rugby scrummaging and neck functional movements, which achieve results comparable with in vivo and in vitro data. The Rugby Model was validated and used for the first time to provide insight into anatomical loading and cervical spine injury mechanisms related to rugby, whilst the MASI introduces a new computational tool to allow investigation of spinal injuries arising from other sporting activities, transport, and ergonomic applications. The models used in this study are freely available at simtk.org and allow to integrate in silico analyses with experimental approaches in injury prevention. PMID:28052130

Globular cluster formation and evolution in the context of cosmological galaxy assembly: open questions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, Duncan A.; Bastian, Nate; Gieles, Mark; Crain, Robert A.; Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Larsen, Søren S.; Ploeckinger, Sylvia; Agertz, Oscar; Trenti, Michele; Ferguson, Annette M. N.; Pfeffer, Joel; Gnedin, Oleg Y.

2018-02-01

We discuss some of the key open questions regarding the formation and evolution of globular clusters (GCs) during galaxy formation and assembly within a cosmological framework. The current state of the art for both observations and simulations is described, and we briefly mention directions for future research. The oldest GCs have ages greater than or equal to 12.5 Gyr and formed around the time of reionization. Resolved colour-magnitude diagrams of Milky Way GCs and direct imaging of lensed proto-GCs at z˜6 with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) promise further insight. GCs are known to host multiple populations of stars with variations in their chemical abundances. Recently, such multiple populations have been detected in ˜2 Gyr old compact, massive star clusters. This suggests a common, single pathway for the formation of GCs at high and low redshift. The shape of the initial mass function for GCs remains unknown; however, for massive galaxies a power-law mass function is favoured. Significant progress has been made recently modelling GC formation in the context of galaxy formation, with success in reproducing many of the observed GC-galaxy scaling relations.

Globular cluster formation and evolution in the context of cosmological galaxy assembly: open questions.

PubMed

Forbes, Duncan A; Bastian, Nate; Gieles, Mark; Crain, Robert A; Kruijssen, J M Diederik; Larsen, Søren S; Ploeckinger, Sylvia; Agertz, Oscar; Trenti, Michele; Ferguson, Annette M N; Pfeffer, Joel; Gnedin, Oleg Y

2018-02-01

We discuss some of the key open questions regarding the formation and evolution of globular clusters (GCs) during galaxy formation and assembly within a cosmological framework. The current state of the art for both observations and simulations is described, and we briefly mention directions for future research. The oldest GCs have ages greater than or equal to 12.5 Gyr and formed around the time of reionization. Resolved colour-magnitude diagrams of Milky Way GCs and direct imaging of lensed proto-GCs at z ∼6 with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) promise further insight. GCs are known to host multiple populations of stars with variations in their chemical abundances. Recently, such multiple populations have been detected in ∼2 Gyr old compact, massive star clusters. This suggests a common, single pathway for the formation of GCs at high and low redshift. The shape of the initial mass function for GCs remains unknown; however, for massive galaxies a power-law mass function is favoured. Significant progress has been made recently modelling GC formation in the context of galaxy formation, with success in reproducing many of the observed GC-galaxy scaling relations.

Globular cluster formation and evolution in the context of cosmological galaxy assembly: open questions

PubMed Central

Bastian, Nate; Gieles, Mark; Crain, Robert A.; Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Larsen, Søren S.; Ploeckinger, Sylvia; Agertz, Oscar; Trenti, Michele; Ferguson, Annette M. N.; Pfeffer, Joel; Gnedin, Oleg Y.

2018-01-01

We discuss some of the key open questions regarding the formation and evolution of globular clusters (GCs) during galaxy formation and assembly within a cosmological framework. The current state of the art for both observations and simulations is described, and we briefly mention directions for future research. The oldest GCs have ages greater than or equal to 12.5 Gyr and formed around the time of reionization. Resolved colour-magnitude diagrams of Milky Way GCs and direct imaging of lensed proto-GCs at z∼6 with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) promise further insight. GCs are known to host multiple populations of stars with variations in their chemical abundances. Recently, such multiple populations have been detected in ∼2 Gyr old compact, massive star clusters. This suggests a common, single pathway for the formation of GCs at high and low redshift. The shape of the initial mass function for GCs remains unknown; however, for massive galaxies a power-law mass function is favoured. Significant progress has been made recently modelling GC formation in the context of galaxy formation, with success in reproducing many of the observed GC-galaxy scaling relations. PMID:29507511

CMOST: an open-source framework for the microsimulation of colorectal cancer screening strategies.

PubMed

Prakash, Meher K; Lang, Brian; Heinrich, Henriette; Valli, Piero V; Bauerfeind, Peter; Sonnenberg, Amnon; Beerenwinkel, Niko; Misselwitz, Benjamin

2017-06-05

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. CRC incidence and mortality can be reduced by several screening strategies, including colonoscopy, but randomized CRC prevention trials face significant obstacles such as the need for large study populations with long follow-up. Therefore, CRC screening strategies will likely be designed and optimized based on computer simulations. Several computational microsimulation tools have been reported for estimating efficiency and cost-effectiveness of CRC prevention. However, none of these tools is publicly available. There is a need for an open source framework to answer practical questions including testing of new screening interventions and adapting findings to local conditions. We developed and implemented a new microsimulation model, Colon Modeling Open Source Tool (CMOST), for modeling the natural history of CRC, simulating the effects of CRC screening interventions, and calculating the resulting costs. CMOST facilitates automated parameter calibration against epidemiological adenoma prevalence and CRC incidence data. Predictions of CMOST were highly similar compared to a large endoscopic CRC prevention study as well as predictions of existing microsimulation models. We applied CMOST to calculate the optimal timing of a screening colonoscopy. CRC incidence and mortality are reduced most efficiently by a colonoscopy between the ages of 56 and 59; while discounted life years gained (LYG) is maximal at 49-50 years. With a dwell time of 13 years, the most cost-effective screening is at 59 years, at $17,211 discounted USD per LYG. While cost-efficiency varied according to dwell time it did not influence the optimal time point of screening interventions within the tested range. Predictions of CMOST are highly similar compared to a randomized CRC prevention trial as well as those of other microsimulation tools. This open source tool will enable health-economics analyses in for various countries, health-care scenarios and CRC prevention strategies. CMOST is freely available under the GNU General Public License at https://gitlab.com/misselwb/CMOST.

Parallel paleogenomic transects reveal complex genetic history of early European farmers

PubMed Central

Lipson, Mark; Szécsényi-Nagy, Anna; Mallick, Swapan; Pósa, Annamária; Stégmár, Balázs; Keerl, Victoria; Rohland, Nadin; Stewardson, Kristin; Ferry, Matthew; Michel, Megan; Oppenheimer, Jonas; Broomandkhoshbacht, Nasreen; Harney, Eadaoin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Llamas, Bastien; Mende, Balázs Gusztáv; Köhler, Kitti; Oross, Krisztián; Bondár, Mária; Marton, Tibor; Osztás, Anett; Jakucs, János; Paluch, Tibor; Horváth, Ferenc; Csengeri, Piroska; Koós, Judit; Sebők, Katalin; Anders, Alexandra; Raczky, Pál; Regenye, Judit; Barna, Judit P.; Fábián, Szilvia; Serlegi, Gábor; Toldi, Zoltán; Nagy, Emese Gyöngyvér; Dani, János; Molnár, Erika; Pálfi, György; Márk, László; Melegh, Béla; Bánfai, Zsolt; Domboróczki, László; Fernández-Eraso, Javier; Mujika-Alustiza, José Antonio; Fernández, Carmen Alonso; Echevarría, Javier Jiménez; Bollongino, Ruth; Orschiedt, Jörg; Schierhold, Kerstin; Meller, Harald; Cooper, Alan; Burger, Joachim; Bánffy, Eszter; Alt, Kurt W.; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; Haak, Wolfgang; Reich, David

2017-01-01

Ancient DNA studies have established that Neolithic European populations were descended from Anatolian migrants1–8 who received a limited amount of admixture from resident hunter-gatherers3–5,9. Many open questions remain, however, about the spatial and temporal dynamics of population interactions and admixture during the Neolithic period. Using the highest-resolution genome-wide ancient DNA data set assembled to date—a total of 180 samples, 130 newly reported here, from the Neolithic and Chalcolithic of Hungary (6000–2900 BCE, n = 100), Germany (5500–3000 BCE, n = 42), and Spain (5500–2200 BCE, n = 38)—we investigate the population dynamics of Neolithization across Europe. We find that genetic diversity was shaped predominantly by local processes, with varied sources and proportions of hunter-gatherer ancestry among the three regions and through time. Admixture between groups with different ancestry profiles was pervasive and resulted in observable population transformation across almost all cultural transitions. Our results shed new light on the ways that gene flow reshaped European populations throughout the Neolithic period and demonstrate the potential of time-series-based sampling and modeling approaches to elucidate multiple dimensions of historical population interactions. PMID:29144465

How many doctors should we train for Sri Lanka? System dynamics modelling for training needs

PubMed

De Silva, D

2017-12-26

Over the years, Sri Lanka has achieved remarkable health gains for the money spent on health. Currently about 1450 doctors enter the health system annually. While some advocate opening up of new medical schools to address an apparent shortage of doctors in the country, others argue against it. To identify the number of doctors Sri Lanka need. System dynamics, an analytical modelling approach and a methodology for studying complex feedback systems was used. Two sub models of “need” and “supply” were developed and simulated for a period of 15 years from 2017 to 2032 At present the doctor to population ratio is 1:671 and 91% of the need has been met. This study shows that currently there is a shortage of doctors in the country. However, the supply will match the need by 2025/26. Increasing the number of doctors, will result in oversupply of doctors towards the latter part of the next decade. There is no acute necessity to open up new Medical Schools. However comprehensive health workforce analysis needs to be done once in 5 years and the number of doctors to be trained, decided accordingly.

Theoretical modeling of time-dependent skin temperature and heat losses during whole-body cryotherapy: A pilot study.

PubMed

Polidori, G; Marreiro, A; Pron, H; Lestriez, P; Boyer, F C; Quinart, H; Tourbah, A; Taïar, R

2016-11-01

This article establishes the basics of a theoretical model for the constitutive law that describes the skin temperature and thermolysis heat losses undergone by a subject during a session of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC). This study focuses on the few minutes during which the human body is subjected to a thermal shock. The relationship between skin temperature and thermolysis heat losses during this period is still unknown and have not yet been studied in the context of the whole human body. The analytical approach here is based on the hypothesis that the skin thermal shock during a WBC session can be thermally modelled by the sum of both radiative and free convective heat transfer functions. The validation of this scientific approach and the derivation of temporal evolution thermal laws, both on skin temperature and dissipated thermal power during the thermal shock open many avenues of large scale studies with the aim of proposing individualized cryotherapy protocols as well as protocols intended for target populations. Furthermore, this study shows quantitatively the substantial imbalance between human metabolism and thermolysis during WBC, the explanation of which remains an open question. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of next generation sequencing in molecular ecology of non-model organisms.

PubMed

Ekblom, R; Galindo, J

2011-07-01

As most biologists are probably aware, technological advances in molecular biology during the last few years have opened up possibilities to rapidly generate large-scale sequencing data from non-model organisms at a reasonable cost. In an era when virtually any study organism can 'go genomic', it is worthwhile to review how this may impact molecular ecology. The first studies to put the next generation sequencing (NGS) to the test in ecologically well-characterized species without previous genome information were published in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. Since then several studies have followed in their footsteps, and a large number are undoubtedly under way. This review focuses on how NGS has been, and can be, applied to ecological, population genetic and conservation genetic studies of non-model species, in which there is no (or very limited) genomic resources. Our aim is to draw attention to the various possibilities that are opening up using the new technologies, but we also highlight some of the pitfalls and drawbacks with these methods. We will try to provide a snapshot of the current state of the art for this rapidly advancing and expanding field of research and give some likely directions for future developments.

Global access to surgical care: a modelling study.

PubMed

Alkire, Blake C; Raykar, Nakul P; Shrime, Mark G; Weiser, Thomas G; Bickler, Stephen W; Rose, John A; Nutt, Cameron T; Greenberg, Sarah L M; Kotagal, Meera; Riesel, Johanna N; Esquivel, Micaela; Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Molina, George; Roy, Nobhojit; Meara, John G; Farmer, Paul E

2015-06-01

More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commission's vision. We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6-5·0 [67%, 64-70]) of the world's population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. Most of the world's population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all. None. Copyright © 2015 Alkire et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Testing the genetic predictions of a biogeographical model in a dominant endemic Eastern Pacific coral (Porites panamensis) using a genetic seascape approach

PubMed Central

Saavedra-Sotelo, Nancy C; Calderon-Aguilera, Luis E; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Paz-García, David A; López-Pérez, Ramón A; Cupul-Magaña, Amilcar; Cruz-Barraza, José A; Rocha-Olivares, Axayácatl

2013-01-01

The coral fauna of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is depauperate and peripheral; hence, it has drawn attention to the factors allowing its survival. Here, we use a genetic seascape approach and ecological niche modeling to unravel the environmental factors correlating with the genetic variation of Porites panamensis, a hermatypic coral endemic to the ETP. Specifically, we test if levels of diversity and connectivity are higher among abundant than among depauperate populations, as expected by a geographically relaxed version of the Abundant Center Hypothesis (rel-ACH). Unlike the original ACH, referring to a geographical center of distribution of maximal abundance, the rel-ACH refers only to a center of maximum abundance, irrespective of its geographic position. The patterns of relative abundance of P. panamensis in the Mexican Pacific revealed that northern populations from Baja California represent its center of abundance; and southern depauperate populations along the continental margin are peripheral relative to it. Genetic patterns of diversity and structure of nuclear DNA sequences (ribosomal DNA and a single copy open reading frame) and five alloenzymatic loci partially agreed with rel-ACH predictions. We found higher diversity levels in peninsular populations and significant differentiation between peninsular and continental colonies. In addition, continental populations showed higher levels of differentiation and lower connectivity than peninsular populations in the absence of isolation by distance in each region. Some discrepancies with model expectations may relate to the influence of significant habitat discontinuities in the face of limited dispersal potential. Environmental data analyses and niche modeling allowed us to identify temperature, water clarity, and substrate availability as the main factors correlating with patterns of abundance, genetic diversity, and structure, which may hold the key to the survival of P. panamensis in the face of widespread environmental degradation. PMID:24324860

Integrating Kinetic Model of E. coli with Genome Scale Metabolic Fluxes Overcomes Its Open System Problem and Reveals Bistability in Central Metabolism

PubMed Central

Mannan, Ahmad A.; Toya, Yoshihiro; Shimizu, Kazuyuki; McFadden, Johnjoe; Kierzek, Andrzej M.; Rocco, Andrea

2015-01-01

An understanding of the dynamics of the metabolic profile of a bacterial cell is sought from a dynamical systems analysis of kinetic models. This modelling formalism relies on a deterministic mathematical description of enzyme kinetics and their metabolite regulation. However, it is severely impeded by the lack of available kinetic information, limiting the size of the system that can be modelled. Furthermore, the subsystem of the metabolic network whose dynamics can be modelled is faced with three problems: how to parameterize the model with mostly incomplete steady state data, how to close what is now an inherently open system, and how to account for the impact on growth. In this study we address these challenges of kinetic modelling by capitalizing on multi-‘omics’ steady state data and a genome-scale metabolic network model. We use these to generate parameters that integrate knowledge embedded in the genome-scale metabolic network model, into the most comprehensive kinetic model of the central carbon metabolism of E. coli realized to date. As an application, we performed a dynamical systems analysis of the resulting enriched model. This revealed bistability of the central carbon metabolism and thus its potential to express two distinct metabolic states. Furthermore, since our model-informing technique ensures both stable states are constrained by the same thermodynamically feasible steady state growth rate, the ensuing bistability represents a temporal coexistence of the two states, and by extension, reveals the emergence of a phenotypically heterogeneous population. PMID:26469081

Rapid Global Fitting of Large Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging Microscopy Datasets

PubMed Central

Warren, Sean C.; Margineanu, Anca; Alibhai, Dominic; Kelly, Douglas J.; Talbot, Clifford; Alexandrov, Yuriy; Munro, Ian; Katan, Matilda

2013-01-01

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) is widely applied to obtain quantitative information from fluorescence signals, particularly using Förster Resonant Energy Transfer (FRET) measurements to map, for example, protein-protein interactions. Extracting FRET efficiencies or population fractions typically entails fitting data to complex fluorescence decay models but such experiments are frequently photon constrained, particularly for live cell or in vivo imaging, and this leads to unacceptable errors when analysing data on a pixel-wise basis. Lifetimes and population fractions may, however, be more robustly extracted using global analysis to simultaneously fit the fluorescence decay data of all pixels in an image or dataset to a multi-exponential model under the assumption that the lifetime components are invariant across the image (dataset). This approach is often considered to be prohibitively slow and/or computationally expensive but we present here a computationally efficient global analysis algorithm for the analysis of time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) or time-gated FLIM data based on variable projection. It makes efficient use of both computer processor and memory resources, requiring less than a minute to analyse time series and multiwell plate datasets with hundreds of FLIM images on standard personal computers. This lifetime analysis takes account of repetitive excitation, including fluorescence photons excited by earlier pulses contributing to the fit, and is able to accommodate time-varying backgrounds and instrument response functions. We demonstrate that this global approach allows us to readily fit time-resolved fluorescence data to complex models including a four-exponential model of a FRET system, for which the FRET efficiencies of the two species of a bi-exponential donor are linked, and polarisation-resolved lifetime data, where a fluorescence intensity and bi-exponential anisotropy decay model is applied to the analysis of live cell homo-FRET data. A software package implementing this algorithm, FLIMfit, is available under an open source licence through the Open Microscopy Environment. PMID:23940626

Open Access Integrated Therapeutic and Diagnostic Platforms for Personalized Cardiovascular Medicine

PubMed Central

Gladding, Patrick A.; Cave, Andrew; Zareian, Mehran; Smith, Kevin; Hussan, Jagir; Hunter, Peter; Erogbogbo, Folarin; Aguilar, Zoraida; Martin, David S.; Chan, Eugene; Homer, Margie L.; Shevade, Abhijit V.; Kassemi, Mohammad; Thomas, James D.; Schlegel, Todd T.

2013-01-01

It is undeniable that the increasing costs in healthcare are a concern. Although technological advancements have been made in healthcare systems, the return on investment made by governments and payers has been poor. The current model of care is unsustainable and is due for an upgrade. In developed nations, a law of diminishing returns has been noted in population health standards, whilst in the developing world, westernized chronic illnesses, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease have become emerging problems. The reasons for these trends are complex, multifactorial and not easily reversed. Personalized medicine has the potential to have a significant impact on these issues, but for it to be truly successful, interdisciplinary mass collaboration is required. We propose here a vision for open-access advanced analytics for personalized cardiac diagnostics using imaging, electrocardiography and genomics. PMID:25562653

NGC 6067: a young and massive open cluster with high metallicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Santiago, J.; Negueruela, I.; Marco, A.; Tabernero, H. M.; González-Fernández, C.; Castro, N.

2017-08-01

NGC 6067 is a young open cluster hosting the largest population of evolved stars among known Milky Way clusters in the 50-150 Ma age range. It thus represents the best laboratory in our Galaxy to constrain the evolutionary tracks of 5-7 M⊙ stars. We have used high-resolution spectra of a large sample of bright cluster members (45), combined with archival photometry, to obtain accurate parameters for the cluster as well as stellar atmospheric parameters. We derive a distance of 1.78 ± 0.12 kpc, an age of 90 ± 20 Ma and a tidal radius of 14.8^{+6.8}_{-3.2} arcmin. We estimate an initial mass above 5700 M⊙, for a present-day evolved population of two Cepheids, two A supergiants and 12 red giants with masses ≈6 M⊙. We also determine chemical abundances of Li, O, Na, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Ni, Rb, Y and Ba for the red clump stars. We find a supersolar metallicity, [Fe/H] = +0.19 ± 0.05, and a homogeneous chemical composition, consistent with the Galactic metallicity gradient. The presence of a Li-rich red giant, star 276 with A(Li) = 2.41, is also detected. An overabundance of Ba is found, supporting the enhanced s-process. The ratio of yellow to red giants is much smaller than 1, in agreement with models with moderate overshooting, but the properties of the cluster Cepheids do not seem consistent with current Padova models for supersolar metallicity.

Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population.

PubMed

Jensen, Andrew R; Cha, Peter S; Devana, Sai K; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D'Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C; McAllister, David R; Petrigliano, Frank A

2017-10-01

Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P < .001) while the incidence of arthroscopic repairs increased (from 4.5 to 7.8 per 10,000 patients, P < .001) during the study period. Patients in the arthroscopic group were more likely to have undergone concomitant subacromial decompression than those in the open group (87% vs 35%, P < .001), and the annual incidence of concomitant biceps tenodesis increased for both groups (from 3.8% to 11% for open and 2.2% to 16% for arthroscopic, P < .001). While postoperative complications were infrequent, patients in the open group were more likely to be diagnosed with infection within 6 months (0.86% vs 0.37%, P < .001) but no more likely to undergo operative debridement (0.43% vs 0.26%, P = .08). Additionally, patients in the open group were more likely to undergo intervention for shoulder stiffness within 1 year (1.4% vs 1.1%, P = .01). In the Medicare population, arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs.

Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population

PubMed Central

Jensen, Andrew R.; Cha, Peter S.; Devana, Sai K.; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D’Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C.; McAllister, David R.; Petrigliano, Frank A.

2017-01-01

Background: Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. Purpose: To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. Results: In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P < .001) while the incidence of arthroscopic repairs increased (from 4.5 to 7.8 per 10,000 patients, P < .001) during the study period. Patients in the arthroscopic group were more likely to have undergone concomitant subacromial decompression than those in the open group (87% vs 35%, P < .001), and the annual incidence of concomitant biceps tenodesis increased for both groups (from 3.8% to 11% for open and 2.2% to 16% for arthroscopic, P < .001). While postoperative complications were infrequent, patients in the open group were more likely to be diagnosed with infection within 6 months (0.86% vs 0.37%, P < .001) but no more likely to undergo operative debridement (0.43% vs 0.26%, P = .08). Additionally, patients in the open group were more likely to undergo intervention for shoulder stiffness within 1 year (1.4% vs 1.1%, P = .01). Conclusion: In the Medicare population, arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs. PMID:29051905

Advanced hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we cover a number of important extensions of the basic hierarchical distance-sampling (HDS) framework from Chapter 8. First, we discuss the inclusion of “individual covariates,” such as group size, in the HDS model. This is important in many surveys where animals form natural groups that are the primary observation unit, with the size of the group expected to have some influence on detectability. We also discuss HDS integrated with time-removal and double-observer or capture-recapture sampling. These “combined protocols” can be formulated as HDS models with individual covariates, and thus they have a commonality with HDS models involving group structure (group size being just another individual covariate). We cover several varieties of open-population HDS models that accommodate population dynamics. On one end of the spectrum, we cover models that allow replicate distance sampling surveys within a year, which estimate abundance relative to availability and temporary emigration through time. We consider a robust design version of that model. We then consider models with explicit dynamics based on the Dail and Madsen (2011) model and the work of Sollmann et al. (2015). The final major theme of this chapter is relatively newly developed spatial distance sampling models that accommodate explicit models describing the spatial distribution of individuals known as Point Process models. We provide novel formulations of spatial DS and HDS models in this chapter, including implementations of those models in the unmarked package using a hack of the pcount function for N-mixture models.

Integrating Paleodistribution Models and Phylogeography in the Grass-Cutting Ant Acromyrmex striatus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Southern Lowlands of South America

PubMed Central

Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Clemes Cardoso, Danon; Fernandes-Salomão, Tânia Maria; Heinze, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Past climate changes often have influenced the present distribution and intraspecific genetic diversity of organisms. The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogeography and historical demography of populations of Acromyrmex striatus (Roger, 1863), a leaf-cutting ant species restricted to the open plains of South America. Additionally, we modeled the distribution of this species to predict its contemporary and historic habitat. From the partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I of 128 A. striatus workers from 38 locations we estimated genetic diversity and inferred historical demography, divergence time, and population structure. The potential distribution areas of A. striatus for current and quaternary weather conditions were modeled using the maximum entropy algorithm. We identified a total of 58 haplotypes, divided into five main haplogroups. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that the largest proportion of genetic variation is found among the groups of populations. Paleodistribution models suggest that the potential habitat of A. striatus may have decreased during the Last Interglacial Period (LIG) and expanded during the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM). Overall, the past potential distribution recovered by the model comprises the current potential distribution of the species. The general structuring pattern observed was consistent with isolation by distance, suggesting a balance between gene flow and drift. Analysis of historical demography showed that populations of A. striatus had remained constant throughout its evolutionary history. Although fluctuations in the area of their potential historic habitat occurred during quaternary climate changes, populations of A. striatus are strongly structured geographically. However, explicit barriers to gene flow have not been identified. These findings closely match those in Mycetophylax simplex, another ant species that in some areas occurs in sympatry with A. striatus. Ecophysiological traits of this species and isolation by distance may together have shaped the phylogeographic pattern. PMID:26734939

A Probabilistic Palimpsest Model of Visual Short-term Memory

PubMed Central

Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M.; Dayan, Peter

2015-01-01

Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ. PMID:25611204

A probabilistic palimpsest model of visual short-term memory.

PubMed

Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M; Dayan, Peter

2015-01-01

Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ.

OPEN DATA FOR DISCOVERY SCIENCE.

PubMed

Payne, Philip R O; Huang, Kun; Shah, Nigam H; Tenenbaum, Jessica

2017-01-01

The modern healthcare and life sciences ecosystem is moving towards an increasingly open and data-centric approach to discovery science. This evolving paradigm is predicated on a complex set of information needs related to our collective ability to share, discover, reuse, integrate, and analyze open biological, clinical, and population level data resources of varying composition, granularity, and syntactic or semantic consistency. Such an evolution is further impacted by a concomitant growth in the size of data sets that can and should be employed for both hypothesis discovery and testing. When such open data can be accessed and employed for discovery purposes, a broad spectrum of high impact end-points is made possible. These span the spectrum from identification of de novo biomarker complexes that can inform precision medicine, to the repositioning or repurposing of extant agents for new and cost-effective therapies, to the assessment of population level influences on disease and wellness. Of note, these types of uses of open data can be either primary, wherein open data is the substantive basis for inquiry, or secondary, wherein open data is used to augment or enrich project-specific or proprietary data that is not open in and of itself. This workshop is concerned with the key challenges, opportunities, and methodological best practices whereby open data can be used to drive the advancement of discovery science in all of the aforementioned capacities.

Influence of habitat and intrinsic characteristics on survival of neonatal pronghorn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.

2015-01-01

Increased understanding of the influence of habitat (e.g., composition, patch size) and intrinsic (e.g., age, birth mass) factors on survival of neonatal pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) is a prerequisite to successful management programs, particularly as they relate to population dynamics and the role of population models in adaptive species management. Nevertheless, few studies have presented empirical data quantifying the influence of habitat variables on survival of neonatal pronghorn. During 2002–2005, we captured and radiocollared 116 neonates across two sites in western South Dakota. We documented 31 deaths during our study, of which coyote (Canis latrans) predation (n = 15) was the leading cause of mortality. We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to investigate the influence of intrinsic and habitat variables on neonatal survival. We generated a priori models that we grouped into habitat and intrinsic effects. The highest-ranking model indicated that neonate mortality was best explained by site, percent grassland, and open water habitat; 90-day survival (0.80; 90% CI = 0.71–0.88) declined 23% when grassland and water increased from 80.1 to 92.3% and 0.36 to 0.40%, respectively, across 50% natal home ranges. Further, our results indicated that grassland patch size and shrub density were important predictors of neonate survival; neonate survival declined 17% when shrub density declined from 5.0 to 2.5 patches per 100 ha. Excluding the site covariates, intrinsic factors (i.e., sex, age, birth mass, year, parturition date) were not important predictors of survival of neonatal pronghorns. Further, neonatal survival may depend on available land cover and interspersion of habitats. We have demonstrated that maintaining minimum and maximum thresholds for habitat factors (e.g., percentages of grassland and open water patches, density of shrub patches) throughout natal home ranges will in turn, ensure relatively high (>0.50) neonatal survival rates, especially as they relate to coyote predation. Thus, landscape level variables (particularly percentages of open water, grassland habitats, and shrub density) should be incorporated into the development or implementation of pronghorn management plans across sagebrush steppe communities of the western Dakotas, and potentially elsewhere within the geographic range of pronghorn.

Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

UNCLASSIFIED Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM Stefano Wahono Aerospace...Georgia Institute of Technology. The OpenFOAM predicted result was also shown to compare favourably with ANSYS Fluent predictions. RELEASE...UNCLASSIFIED Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM Executive Summary The Infrared

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

2017-01-01

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Risk assessment predictions of open dumping area after closure using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Radhi, Mohd Shahril Mat; Omar, Husaini

2017-10-01

Currently, there are many abandoned open dumping areas that were left without any proper mitigation measures. These open dumping areas could pose serious hazard to human and pollute the environment. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk assessment at the open dumping area after they has been closed using Monte Carlo Simulation method. The risk assessment exercise is conducted at the Kuala Lumpur dumping area. The rapid urbanisation of Kuala Lumpur coupled with increase in population lead to increase in waste generation. It leads to more dumping/landfill area in Kuala Lumpur. The first stage of this study involve the assessment of the dumping area and samples collections. It followed by measurement of settlement of dumping area using oedometer. The risk of the settlement is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation calculates the risk and the long-term settlement. The model simulation result shows that risk level of the Kuala Lumpur open dumping area ranges between Level III to Level IV i.e. between medium risk to high risk. These settlement (ΔH) is between 3 meters to 7 meters. Since the risk is between medium to high, it requires mitigation measures such as replacing the top waste soil with new sandy gravel soil. This will increase the strength of the soil and reduce the settlement.

To explore and develop a model to maintain and build upon a dental clinic open for all in developing regions, with a primary focus on India

PubMed Central

Sugandhi, Ayushi; Mangal, Brijesh; Mishra, Amit Kumar; Sethia, Bhavna

2014-01-01

AIM: To study a service model that enables a clinic to be open to all members of the community, irrespective of their ability to pay. METHODS: Sampling methodology was used to gather information in two phases, with the city of Indore as the target region. In the first phase, dental professionals were surveyed to gather the cost of the facility, land and equipment and the cost of sustaining the practice. In the second phase, the residents of Indore were surveyed to collect information regarding their oral health problems and their expenditure for the same. Assessing the current situation, the questions to answer are related to the issues of dental health care access problems and the resources required, human and financial. RESULTS: (1) People younger than 20 years of age form a large proportion (43%) of the population of the city and also a large proportion (54%) of people who visit dental clinics; (2) Dental caries are commonly found in the population younger than 20 years of age and mobile teeth in those older than 50 years of age; (3) Dental caries and mobile teeth are almost equally found in people of the age group 20-50 years old; (4) A significantly large proportion of those older than 50 years old have had all their teeth extracted; and (5) A significantly large proportion of the 20-30 years of age group has had no teeth extracted. CONCLUSION: The model which we propose works well for low income patients; however, it places a lot of extra burden on the higher income group. A lot of effort can be put into generating revenue from other sources, including events and donations. PMID:25232547

To explore and develop a model to maintain and build upon a dental clinic open for all in developing regions, with a primary focus on India.

PubMed

Sugandhi, Ayushi; Mangal, Brijesh; Mishra, Amit Kumar; Sethia, Bhavna

2014-09-16

To study a service model that enables a clinic to be open to all members of the community, irrespective of their ability to pay. Sampling methodology was used to gather information in two phases, with the city of Indore as the target region. In the first phase, dental professionals were surveyed to gather the cost of the facility, land and equipment and the cost of sustaining the practice. In the second phase, the residents of Indore were surveyed to collect information regarding their oral health problems and their expenditure for the same. Assessing the current situation, the questions to answer are related to the issues of dental health care access problems and the resources required, human and financial. (1) People younger than 20 years of age form a large proportion (43%) of the population of the city and also a large proportion (54%) of people who visit dental clinics; (2) Dental caries are commonly found in the population younger than 20 years of age and mobile teeth in those older than 50 years of age; (3) Dental caries and mobile teeth are almost equally found in people of the age group 20-50 years old; (4) A significantly large proportion of those older than 50 years old have had all their teeth extracted; and (5) A significantly large proportion of the 20-30 years of age group has had no teeth extracted. The model which we propose works well for low income patients; however, it places a lot of extra burden on the higher income group. A lot of effort can be put into generating revenue from other sources, including events and donations.

Design and Application of an Ontology for Component-Based Modeling of Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elag, M.; Goodall, J. L.

2012-12-01

Many Earth system modeling frameworks have adopted an approach of componentizing models so that a large model can be assembled by linking a set of smaller model components. These model components can then be more easily reused, extended, and maintained by a large group of model developers and end users. While there has been a notable increase in component-based model frameworks in the Earth sciences in recent years, there has been less work on creating framework-agnostic metadata and ontologies for model components. Well defined model component metadata is needed, however, to facilitate sharing, reuse, and interoperability both within and across Earth system modeling frameworks. To address this need, we have designed an ontology for the water resources community named the Water Resources Component (WRC) ontology in order to advance the application of component-based modeling frameworks across water related disciplines. Here we present the design of the WRC ontology and demonstrate its application for integration of model components used in watershed management. First we show how the watershed modeling system Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be decomposed into a set of hydrological and ecological components that adopt the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) standard. Then we show how the components can be used to estimate nitrogen losses from land to surface water for the Baltimore Ecosystem study area. Results of this work are (i) a demonstration of how the WRC ontology advances the conceptual integration between components of water related disciplines by handling the semantic and syntactic heterogeneity present when describing components from different disciplines and (ii) an investigation of a methodology by which large models can be decomposed into a set of model components that can be well described by populating metadata according to the WRC ontology.

Generation and expansion of highly pure motor neuron progenitors from human pluripotent stem cells.

PubMed

Du, Zhong-Wei; Chen, Hong; Liu, Huisheng; Lu, Jianfeng; Qian, Kun; Huang, CindyTzu-Ling; Zhong, Xiaofen; Fan, Frank; Zhang, Su-Chun

2015-03-25

Human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) have opened new opportunities for understanding human development, modelling disease processes and developing new therapeutics. However, these applications are hindered by the low efficiency and heterogeneity of cell types, such as motorneurons (MNs), differentiated from hPSCs as well as our inability to maintain the potency of lineage-committed progenitors. Here by using a combination of small molecules that regulate multiple signalling pathways, we develop a method to guide human embryonic stem cells to a near-pure population (>95%) of motor neuron progenitors (MNPs) in 12 days, and an enriched population (>90%) of functionally mature MNs in an additional 16 days. More importantly, the MNPs can be expanded for at least five passages so that a single MNP can be amplified to 1 × 10(4). This method is reproducible in human-induced pluripotent stem cells and is applied to model MN-degenerative diseases and in proof-of-principle drug-screening assays.

The BMC ACCESS project: the development of a medically enhanced safe haven shelter.

PubMed

Lincoln, Alisa; Johnson, Peggy; Espejo, Dennis; Plachta-Elliott, Sara; Lester, Peggy; Shanahan, Christopher; Abbott, Susan; Cabral, Howard; Jamanka, Amber; Delman, Jonathan; Kenny, Patty

2009-10-01

This paper describes the development and implementation of the Boston Medical Center (BMC) Advanced Clinical Capacity for Engagement, Safety, and Services Project. In October 2002, the BMC Division of Psychiatry became the first such entity to open a Safe Haven shelter for people who are chronically homeless, struggling with severe mental illness, and actively substance abusing. The low-demand Safe Haven model targets the most difficult to reach population and serves as a "portal of entry" to the mental health and addiction service systems. In this paper, the process by which this blended funded, multi-level collaboration, consisting of a medical center, state, city, local, and community-based consumer organizations, was created and is maintained, as well as the clinical model of care is described. Lessons learned from creating the Safe Haven Shelter and the development and implementation of the consumer-informed evaluation are discussed as well as implications for future work with this population.

Offshore marine constructions as propagators of moon jellyfish dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vodopivec, Martin; Peliz, Álvaro J.; Malej, Alenka

2017-08-01

We have studied the influence of offshore marine constructions on the moon jellyfish population in the Adriatic sea, where the newly set up substrates enable the formation of a new population based in the formerly unpopulated open waters. Our five-year long computer simulation uses a high resolution coupled bio-physical individual-based model to track the dispersal of the offspring from subpopulations originating from offshore and shore-based sources. According to our study, the platforms enhance connectivity between subpopulations of jellyfish polyps, help sustain existing shore-based subpopulations, contribute to jellyfish blooms in some areas, and play an important role in establishing connection with the rest of the Mediterranean, in addition to representing substantial amounts of available substrate. This is an aspect that is usually overlooked when evaluating the ecological impact of existing and future wind farms, oil and gas platforms, etc. Our approach could serve as a role model in future studies of ecological impacts of planned offshore constructions.

Crop diversity loss as primary cause of grey partridge and common pheasant decline in Lower Saxony, Germany.

PubMed

Ronnenberg, Katrin; Strauß, Egbert; Siebert, Ursula

2016-09-09

The grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) are galliform birds typical of arable lands in Central Europe and exhibit a partly dramatic negative population trend. In order to understand general habitat preferences we modelled grey partridge and common pheasant densities over the entire range of Lower Saxony. Spatially explicit developments in bird densities were modelled using spatially explicit trends of crop cultivation. Pheasant and grey partridge densities counted annually by over 8000 hunting district holders over 10 years in a range of 3.7 Mio ha constitute a unique dataset (wildlife survey of Lower Saxony). Data on main landscape groups, functional groups of agricultural crops (consisting of 9.5 million fields compiled by the Integrated Administration and Control System) and landscape features were aggregated to 420 municipalities. To model linear 8 or 10 year population trends (for common pheasant and grey partridge respectively) we use rho correlation coefficients of densities, but also rho coefficients of agricultural crops. All models confirm a dramatic decline in population densities. The habitat model for the grey partridge shows avoidance of municipalities with a high proportion of woodland and water areas, but a preference for areas with a high proportion of winter grains and high crop diversity. The trend model confirms these findings with a linear positive effect of diversity on grey partridge population development. Similarly, the pheasant avoids wooded areas but showed some preference for municipalities with open water. The effect of maize was found to be positive at medium densities, but negative at very high proportions. Winter grains, landscape features and high crop diversity are favorable. The positive effect of winter grains and higher crop diversity is also supported by the trend model. The results show the strong importance of diverse crop cultivation. Most incentives favor the cultivation of specific crops, which results in large areas of monocultures. The results confirm the importance of sustainable agricultural policies.

Effects of Mathematics Innovation and Technology on Students Performance in Open and Distance Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Israel, Oginni 'Niyi

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of mathematics innovation and technology on students' academic performance in open and distance learning. Quasi -- experimental research design was adopted for the study. The population for the study consisted of all the 200 level primary education students at the National Open University of Nigeria (Ekiti and…

DynaSim: A MATLAB Toolbox for Neural Modeling and Simulation

PubMed Central

Sherfey, Jason S.; Soplata, Austin E.; Ardid, Salva; Roberts, Erik A.; Stanley, David A.; Pittman-Polletta, Benjamin R.; Kopell, Nancy J.

2018-01-01

DynaSim is an open-source MATLAB/GNU Octave toolbox for rapid prototyping of neural models and batch simulation management. It is designed to speed up and simplify the process of generating, sharing, and exploring network models of neurons with one or more compartments. Models can be specified by equations directly (similar to XPP or the Brian simulator) or by lists of predefined or custom model components. The higher-level specification supports arbitrarily complex population models and networks of interconnected populations. DynaSim also includes a large set of features that simplify exploring model dynamics over parameter spaces, running simulations in parallel using both multicore processors and high-performance computer clusters, and analyzing and plotting large numbers of simulated data sets in parallel. It also includes a graphical user interface (DynaSim GUI) that supports full functionality without requiring user programming. The software has been implemented in MATLAB to enable advanced neural modeling using MATLAB, given its popularity and a growing interest in modeling neural systems. The design of DynaSim incorporates a novel schema for model specification to facilitate future interoperability with other specifications (e.g., NeuroML, SBML), simulators (e.g., NEURON, Brian, NEST), and web-based applications (e.g., Geppetto) outside MATLAB. DynaSim is freely available at http://dynasimtoolbox.org. This tool promises to reduce barriers for investigating dynamics in large neural models, facilitate collaborative modeling, and complement other tools being developed in the neuroinformatics community. PMID:29599715

DynaSim: A MATLAB Toolbox for Neural Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Sherfey, Jason S; Soplata, Austin E; Ardid, Salva; Roberts, Erik A; Stanley, David A; Pittman-Polletta, Benjamin R; Kopell, Nancy J

2018-01-01

DynaSim is an open-source MATLAB/GNU Octave toolbox for rapid prototyping of neural models and batch simulation management. It is designed to speed up and simplify the process of generating, sharing, and exploring network models of neurons with one or more compartments. Models can be specified by equations directly (similar to XPP or the Brian simulator) or by lists of predefined or custom model components. The higher-level specification supports arbitrarily complex population models and networks of interconnected populations. DynaSim also includes a large set of features that simplify exploring model dynamics over parameter spaces, running simulations in parallel using both multicore processors and high-performance computer clusters, and analyzing and plotting large numbers of simulated data sets in parallel. It also includes a graphical user interface (DynaSim GUI) that supports full functionality without requiring user programming. The software has been implemented in MATLAB to enable advanced neural modeling using MATLAB, given its popularity and a growing interest in modeling neural systems. The design of DynaSim incorporates a novel schema for model specification to facilitate future interoperability with other specifications (e.g., NeuroML, SBML), simulators (e.g., NEURON, Brian, NEST), and web-based applications (e.g., Geppetto) outside MATLAB. DynaSim is freely available at http://dynasimtoolbox.org. This tool promises to reduce barriers for investigating dynamics in large neural models, facilitate collaborative modeling, and complement other tools being developed in the neuroinformatics community.

Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

PubMed

Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

2013-01-01

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Response of bird species densities to habitat structure and fire history along a Midwestern open-forest gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grundel, R.; Pavlovic, N.B.

2007-01-01

Oak savannas were historically common but are currently rare in the Midwestern United States. We assessed possible associations of bird species with savannas and other threatened habitats in the region by relating fire frequency and vegetation characteristics to seasonal densities of 72 bird species distributed across an open-forest gradient in northwestern Indiana. About one-third of the species did not exhibit statistically significant relationships with any combination of seven vegetation characteristics that included vegetation cover in five vertical strata, dead tree density, and tree height. For 40% of the remaining species, models best predicting species density incorporated tree density. Therefore, management based solely on manipulating tree density may not be an adequate strategy for managing bird populations along this open-forest gradient. Few species exhibited sharp peaks in predicted density under habitat conditions expected in restored savannas, suggesting that few savanna specialists occur among Midwestern bird species. When fire frequency, measured over fifteen years, was added to vegetation characteristics as a predictor of species density, it was incorporated into models for about one-quarter of species, suggesting that fire may modify habitat characteristics in ways that are important for birds but not captured by the structural habitat variables measured. Among those species, similar numbers had peaks in predicted density at low, intermediate, or high fire frequency. For species suggested by previous studies to have a preference for oak savannas along the open-forest gradient, estimated density was maximized at an average fire return interval of about one fire every three years. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2007.

Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.

2014-11-01

This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

Cohort profile: the Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS), a multicentre cohort for socioeconomic inequalities in health monitoring

PubMed Central

Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Spadea, Teresa; Pacelli, Barbara; Broccoli, Serena; Ballotari, Paola; Costa, Giuseppe; Zengarini, Nicolás; Agabiti, Nera; Bargagli, Anna Maria; Cacciani, Laura; Canova, Cristina; Cestari, Laura; Biggeri, Annibale; Grisotto, Laura; Terni, Gianna; Costanzo, Gianfranco; Mirisola, Concetta; Petrelli, Alessio

2018-01-01

Purpose The Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS) is a system of integrated data on health outcomes, demographic and socioeconomic information, and represents a powerful tool to study health inequalities. Participants IN-LiMeS is a multicentre and multipurpose pool of metropolitan population cohorts enrolled in nine Italian cities: Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Florence, Leghorn, Prato and Rome. Data come from record linkage of municipal population registries, the 2001 population census, mortality registers and hospital discharge archives. Depending on the source of enrolment, cohorts can be closed or open. The census-based closed cohort design includes subjects resident in any of the nine cities at the 2001 census day; 4 466 655 individuals were enrolled in 2001 in the nine closed cohorts. The open cohort design includes subjects resident in 2001 or subsequently registered by birth or immigration until the latest available follow-up (currently 31 December 2013). The open cohort design is available for Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Prato and Rome. Detailed socioeconomic data are available for subjects enrolled in the census-based cohorts; information on demographic characteristics, education and citizenship is available from population registries. Findings to date The first IN-LiMeS application was the study of differentials in mortality between immigrants and Italians. Either using a closed cohort design (nine cities) or an open one (Turin and Reggio Emilia), individuals from high migration pressure countries generally showed a lower mortality risk. However, a certain heterogeneity between the nine cities was noted, especially among men, and an excess mortality risk was reported for some macroareas of origin and specific causes of death. Future plans We are currently working on the linkage of the 2011 population census data, the expansion of geographical coverage and the implementation of the open design in all the participating cohorts. PMID:29678981

Impact of overgrazing on the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in Tibetan pastoral communities of Sichuan Province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Qian; Xiao, Yong-fu; Vuitton, Dominique A; Schantz, Peter M; Raoul, Francis; Budke, Christine; Campos-Ponce, Maiza; Craig, Philip S; Giraudoux, Patrick

2007-02-05

Overgrazing was assumed to increase the population density of small mammals that are the intermediate hosts of Echinococcus multilocularis, the pathogen of alveolar echinococcosis in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. This research tested the hypothesis that overgrazing might promote Echinococcus multilocularis transmission through increasing populations of small mammal, intermediate hosts in Tibetan pastoral communities. Grazing practices, small mammal indices and dog Echinococcus multilocularis infection data were collected to analyze the relation between overgrazing and Echinococcus multilocularis transmission using nonparametric tests and multiple stepwise logistic regression. In the investigated area, raising livestock was a key industry. The communal pastures existed and the available forage was deficient for grazing. Open (common) pastures were overgrazed and had higher burrow density of small mammals compared with neighboring fenced (private) pastures; this high overgrazing pressure on the open pastures measured by neighboring fenced area led to higher burrow density of small mammals in open pastures. The median burrow density of small mammals in open pastures was independently associated with nearby canine Echinococcus multilocularis infection (P = 0.003, OR = 1.048). Overgrazing may promote the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis through increasing the population density of small mammals.

A theory of vibrational prey localization in two dimensions: the sand scorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hemmen, J. Leo

2000-03-01

Sand scorpions, and many other arachnids, find their prey at night by localizing the source of mechanical waves produced by prey movements. Substrate vibrations propagating through sand evoke stimulus-locked action potentials from slit sensilla on the scorpion's eight `feet' (tarsi). We present a neuronal model to account for stimulus angle determination in a two-dimensional plane using a population of second-order neurons, each receiving excitatory input from one tarsus and inhibition from a triad opposite to it. This input opens a time window whose width determines the firing probability of each of the second-order neurons. The population then `votes' for the direction. Stochastic resonance is realized through tuning the balance between excitation and inhibition. The agreement with behavioral experiments on sand scorpions is excellent.

Conservation genomics of threatened animal species.

PubMed

Steiner, Cynthia C; Putnam, Andrea S; Hoeck, Paquita E A; Ryder, Oliver A

2013-01-01

The genomics era has opened up exciting possibilities in the field of conservation biology by enabling genomic analyses of threatened species that previously were limited to model organisms. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) and the collection of genome-wide data allow for more robust studies of the demographic history of populations and adaptive variation associated with fitness and local adaptation. Genomic analyses can also advance management efforts for threatened wild and captive populations by identifying loci contributing to inbreeding depression and disease susceptibility, and predicting fitness consequences of introgression. However, the development of genomic tools in wild species still carries multiple challenges, particularly those associated with computational and sampling constraints. This review provides an overview of the most significant applications of NGS and the implications and limitations of genomic studies in conservation.

CCD photometry of Andromeda IV - Dwarf irregular galaxy or M31 open cluster?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Joseph H.

1993-01-01

CCD photometry of Andromeda IV was obtained during discretionary time in August of 1989 at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope on Mauna Kea and the data were reduced at CFHT during the summer of 1991. And IV has been catalogued both as a dwarf galaxy and as an open star cluster in M31. The color-magnitude diagrams presented indicate that this object has a young population of stars with a narrow age range, consistent with the characteristics of an open star cluster or stellar association. A radial velocity measurement taken from the literature and analyzed with respect to the rotation curve of M31 indicates this object resides in the disk of the Andromeda Galaxy, strengthening the conclusion that it is indeed a very large open star cluster or a densely populated stellar association rather than a dwarf irregular galaxy.

Multiplicity of Mathematical Modeling Strategies to Search for Molecular and Cellular Insights into Bacteria Lung Infection

PubMed Central

Cantone, Martina; Santos, Guido; Wentker, Pia; Lai, Xin; Vera, Julio

2017-01-01

Even today two bacterial lung infections, namely pneumonia and tuberculosis, are among the 10 most frequent causes of death worldwide. These infections still lack effective treatments in many developing countries and in immunocompromised populations like infants, elderly people and transplanted patients. The interaction between bacteria and the host is a complex system of interlinked intercellular and the intracellular processes, enriched in regulatory structures like positive and negative feedback loops. Severe pathological condition can emerge when the immune system of the host fails to neutralize the infection. This failure can result in systemic spreading of pathogens or overwhelming immune response followed by a systemic inflammatory response. Mathematical modeling is a promising tool to dissect the complexity underlying pathogenesis of bacterial lung infection at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels, and also at the interfaces among levels. In this article, we introduce mathematical and computational modeling frameworks that can be used for investigating molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying bacterial lung infection. Then, we compile and discuss published results on the modeling of regulatory pathways and cell populations relevant for lung infection and inflammation. Finally, we discuss how to make use of this multiplicity of modeling approaches to open new avenues in the search of the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying bacterial infection in the lung. PMID:28912729

Multiplicity of Mathematical Modeling Strategies to Search for Molecular and Cellular Insights into Bacteria Lung Infection.

PubMed

Cantone, Martina; Santos, Guido; Wentker, Pia; Lai, Xin; Vera, Julio

2017-01-01

Even today two bacterial lung infections, namely pneumonia and tuberculosis, are among the 10 most frequent causes of death worldwide. These infections still lack effective treatments in many developing countries and in immunocompromised populations like infants, elderly people and transplanted patients. The interaction between bacteria and the host is a complex system of interlinked intercellular and the intracellular processes, enriched in regulatory structures like positive and negative feedback loops. Severe pathological condition can emerge when the immune system of the host fails to neutralize the infection. This failure can result in systemic spreading of pathogens or overwhelming immune response followed by a systemic inflammatory response. Mathematical modeling is a promising tool to dissect the complexity underlying pathogenesis of bacterial lung infection at the molecular, cellular and tissue levels, and also at the interfaces among levels. In this article, we introduce mathematical and computational modeling frameworks that can be used for investigating molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying bacterial lung infection. Then, we compile and discuss published results on the modeling of regulatory pathways and cell populations relevant for lung infection and inflammation. Finally, we discuss how to make use of this multiplicity of modeling approaches to open new avenues in the search of the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying bacterial infection in the lung.

Quantum Control of Open Systems and Dense Atomic Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiLoreto, Christopher

Controlling the dynamics of open quantum systems; i.e. quantum systems that decohere because of interactions with the environment, is an active area of research with many applications in quantum optics and quantum computation. My thesis expands the scope of this inquiry by seeking to control open systems in proximity to an additional system. The latter could be a classical system such as metal nanoparticles, or a quantum system such as a cluster of similar atoms. By modelling the interactions between the systems, we are able to expand the accessible state space of the quantum system in question. For a single, three-level quantum system, I examine isolated systems that have only normal spontaneous emission. I then show that intensity-intensity correlation spectra, which depend directly on the density matrix of the system, can be used detect whether transitions share a common energy level. This detection is possible due to the presence of quantum interference effects between two transitions if they are connected. This effect allows one to asses energy level structure diagrams in complex atoms/molecules. By placing an open quantum system near a nanoparticle dimer, I show that the spontaneous emission rate of the system can be changed "on demand" by changing the polarization of an incident, driving field. In a three-level, Lambda system, this allows a qubit to both retain high qubit fidelity when it is operating, and to be rapidly initialized to a pure state once it is rendered unusable by decoherence. This type of behaviour is not possible in a single open quantum system; therefore adding a classical system nearby extends the overall control space of the quantum system. An open quantum system near identical neighbours in a dense ensemble is another example of how the accessible state space can be expanded. I show that a dense ensemble of atoms rapidly becomes disordered with states that are not directly excited by an incident field becoming significantly populated. This effect motivates the need for using multi-directional basis sets in theoretical analysis of dense quantum systems. My results demonstrate the shortcomings of short-pulse techniques used in many recent studies. Based on my numerical studies, I hypothesize that the dense ensemble can be modelled by an effective single quantum system that has a decoherence rate that changes over time. My effective single particle model provides a way in which computational time can be reduced, and also a model in which the underlying physical processes involved in the system's evolution are much easier to understand. I then use this model to provide an elegant theoretical explanation for an unusual experimental result called "transverse optical magnetism''. My effective single particle model's predictions match very well with experimental data.

Uncovering temporal structure in hippocampal output patterns

PubMed Central

de Jong, Laurel Watkins; Pfeiffer, Brad E; Foster, David

2018-01-01

Place cell activity of hippocampal pyramidal cells has been described as the cognitive substrate of spatial memory. Replay is observed during hippocampal sharp-wave-ripple-associated population burst events (PBEs) and is critical for consolidation and recall-guided behaviors. PBE activity has historically been analyzed as a phenomenon subordinate to the place code. Here, we use hidden Markov models to study PBEs observed in rats during exploration of both linear mazes and open fields. We demonstrate that estimated models are consistent with a spatial map of the environment, and can even decode animals’ positions during behavior. Moreover, we demonstrate the model can be used to identify hippocampal replay without recourse to the place code, using only PBE model congruence. These results suggest that downstream regions may rely on PBEs to provide a substrate for memory. Additionally, by forming models independent of animal behavior, we lay the groundwork for studies of non-spatial memory. PMID:29869611

Uncovering temporal structure in hippocampal output patterns.

PubMed

Maboudi, Kourosh; Ackermann, Etienne; de Jong, Laurel Watkins; Pfeiffer, Brad E; Foster, David; Diba, Kamran; Kemere, Caleb

2018-06-05

Place cell activity of hippocampal pyramidal cells has been described as the cognitive substrate of spatial memory. Replay is observed during hippocampal sharp-wave-ripple-associated population burst events (PBEs) and is critical for consolidation and recall-guided behaviors. PBE activity has historically been analyzed as a phenomenon subordinate to the place code. Here, we use hidden Markov models to study PBEs observed in rats during exploration of both linear mazes and open fields. We demonstrate that estimated models are consistent with a spatial map of the environment, and can even decode animals' positions during behavior. Moreover, we demonstrate the model can be used to identify hippocampal replay without recourse to the place code, using only PBE model congruence. These results suggest that downstream regions may rely on PBEs to provide a substrate for memory. Additionally, by forming models independent of animal behavior, we lay the groundwork for studies of non-spatial memory. © 2018, Maboudi et al.

Assessment of spring cranioplasty biomechanics in sagittal craniosynostosis patients.

PubMed

Borghi, Alessandro; Schievano, Silvia; Rodriguez Florez, Naiara; McNicholas, Roisin; Rodgers, Will; Ponniah, Allan; James, Greg; Hayward, Richard; Dunaway, David; Jeelani, N U Owase

2017-11-01

OBJECTIVE Scaphocephaly secondary to sagittal craniosynostosis has been treated in recent years with spring-assisted cranioplasty, an innovative approach that leverages the use of metallic spring distractors to reshape the patient skull. In this study, a population of patients who had undergone spring cranioplasty for the correction of scaphocephaly at the Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children was retrospectively analyzed to systematically assess spring biomechanical performance and kinematics in relation to spring model, patient age, and outcomes over time. METHODS Data from 60 patients (49 males, mean age at surgery 5.2 ± 0.9 months) who had received 2 springs for the treatment of isolated sagittal craniosynostosis were analyzed. The opening distance of the springs at the time of insertion and removal was retrieved from the surgical notes and, during the implantation period, from planar radiographs obtained at 1 day postoperatively and at the 3-week follow-up. The force exerted by the spring to the patient skull at each time point was derived after mechanical testing of each spring model-3 devices with the same geometry but different wire thicknesses. Changes in the cephalic index between preoperatively and the 3-week follow-up were recorded. RESULTS Stiffer springs were implanted in older patients (p < 0.05) to achieve the same opening on-table as in younger patients, but this entailed significantly different-higher-forces exerted on the skull when combinations of stiffer springs were used (p < 0.001). After initial force differences between spring models, however, the devices all plateaued. Indeed, regardless of patient age or spring model, after 10 days from insertion, all the devices were open. CONCLUSIONS Results in this study provide biomechanical insights into spring-assisted cranioplasty and could help to improve spring design and follow-up strategy in the future.

Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

2016-01-01

Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (<1 km/km2) and coniferous and mixed forest proportions were high (>0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary constraints do not allow for capture–recapture studies to directly estimate density.

Retrospective population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis of pyridostigmine, a cholinesterase inhibitor, in Chinese males.

PubMed

Seng, Kok-Yong; Loke, Weng-Keong; Moochhala, Shabbir; Zhao, Bin; Lee, Jon-Deoon Edmund

2009-09-01

We have characterised the population pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics of pyridostigmine given as pyridostigmine bromide. Over three days 50 healthy Chinese male subjects each received seven doses of 30 mg pyridostigmine bromide orally (3 x 10 mg every 8 h). Plasma concentrations of pyridostigmine and red blood cell acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity were determined at various times within the eight hours after the first and the seventh doses. The resulting pharmacokinetic data were fitted to a single compartment open model with first-order absorption and elimination. The pharmacodynamics were modelled using an inhibitory E(max) model. The potential influence of demographic and biological covariates on the model parameters was investigated. Nonlinear mixed effects modelling was performed using NONMEM. The apparent clearance and volume of distribution as well as absorption rate constant of plasma pyridostigmine were estimated to be 136 l/h, 130 l and 0.68 1/h, respectively. The maximum red blood cell AChE activity decrease (E(max)) and plasma pyridostigmine concentration producing 50% of this reduction (EC50) were estimated to be 9.32 AChE units per gram haemoglobin and 51.9 ng/ml, respectively. None of the tested covariates were found to be correlated with any of the model parameters. Dosing simulations suggested that 30 mg repeated every six hours might be needed to achieve steady-state trough percentage inhibition above the recommended 10% in healthy Chinese males. The pharmacokinetics and the effects of pyridostigmine on red blood cell AChE activity were described using a mixed effects model. For Chinese males, the dosing interval may have been shorter than that recommended for the Caucasian population. Additional studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Summer and winter space use and home range characteristics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Tricia A.; Brooks, Robert P.; Lanzone, Michael J.; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Brandes, David; Duerr, Adam E.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Movement behavior and its relationship to habitat provide critical information toward understanding the effects of changing environments on birds. The eastern North American population of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is a genetically distinct and small population of conservation concern. To evaluate the potential responses of this population to changing landscapes, we calculated the home range and core area sizes of 52 eagles of 6 age–sex classes during the summer and winter seasons. Variability in range size was related to variation in topography and open cover, and to age and sex. In summer, eagle ranges that were smaller had higher proportions of ridge tops and open cover and had greater topographic roughness than did larger ranges. In winter, smaller ranges had higher proportions of ridge tops, hillsides and cliffs, and open cover than did larger ranges. All age and sex classes responded similarly to topography and open cover in both seasons. Not surprisingly, adult eagles occupied the smallest ranges in both seasons. Young birds used larger ranges than adults, and subadults in summer used the largest ranges (>9,000 km2). Eastern adult home ranges in summer were 2–10 times larger than those reported for other populations in any season. Golden Eagles in eastern North America may need to compensate for generally lower-quality habitat in the region by using larger ranges that support access to adequate quantities of resources (prey, updrafts, and nesting, perching, and roosting sites) associated with open cover and diverse topography. Our results suggest that climate change–induced afforestation on the breeding grounds and ongoing land cover change from timber harvest and energy development on the wintering grounds may affect the amount of suitable habitat for Golden Eagles in eastern North America.

Using Satellite Imagery to Assess Large-Scale Habitat Characteristics of Adirondack Park, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClain, Bobbi J.; Porter, William F.

2000-11-01

Satellite imagery is a useful tool for large-scale habitat analysis; however, its limitations need to be tested. We tested these limitations by varying the methods of a habitat evaluation for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, utilizing harvest data to create and validate the assessment models. We used two classified images, one with a large minimum mapping unit but high accuracy and one with no minimum mapping unit but slightly lower accuracy, to test the sensitivity of the evaluation to these differences. We tested the utility of two methods of assessment, habitat suitability index modeling, and pattern recognition modeling. We varied the scale at which the models were applied by using five separate sizes of analysis windows. Results showed that the presence of a large minimum mapping unit eliminates important details of the habitat. Window size is relatively unimportant if the data are averaged to a large resolution (i.e., township), but if the data are used at the smaller resolution, then the window size is an important consideration. In the Adirondacks, the proportion of hardwood and softwood in an area is most important to the spatial dynamics of deer populations. The low occurrence of open area in all parts of the park either limits the effect of this cover type on the population or limits our ability to detect the effect. The arrangement and interspersion of cover types were not significant to deer populations.

The gravity of pollination: integrating at-site features into spatial analysis of contemporary pollen movement.

PubMed

DiLeo, Michelle F; Siu, Jenna C; Rhodes, Matthew K; López-Villalobos, Adriana; Redwine, Angela; Ksiazek, Kelly; Dyer, Rodney J

2014-08-01

Pollen-mediated gene flow is a major driver of spatial genetic structure in plant populations. Both individual plant characteristics and site-specific features of the landscape can modify the perceived attractiveness of plants to their pollinators and thus play an important role in shaping spatial genetic variation. Most studies of landscape-level genetic connectivity in plants have focused on the effects of interindividual distance using spatial and increasingly ecological separation, yet have not incorporated individual plant characteristics or other at-site ecological variables. Using spatially explicit simulations, we first tested the extent to which the inclusion of at-site variables influencing local pollination success improved the statistical characterization of genetic connectivity based upon examination of pollen pool genetic structure. The addition of at-site characteristics provided better models than those that only considered interindividual spatial distance (e.g. IBD). Models parameterized using conditional genetic covariance (e.g. population graphs) also outperformed those assuming panmixia. In a natural population of Cornus florida L. (Cornaceae), we showed that the addition of at-site characteristics (clumping of primary canopy opening above each maternal tree and maternal tree floral output) provided significantly better models describing gene flow than models including only between-site spatial (IBD) and ecological (isolation by resistance) variables. Overall, our results show that including interindividual and local ecological variation greatly aids in characterizing landscape-level measures of contemporary gene flow. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

OpenMx: An Open Source Extended Structural Equation Modeling Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boker, Steven; Neale, Michael; Maes, Hermine; Wilde, Michael; Spiegel, Michael; Brick, Timothy; Spies, Jeffrey; Estabrook, Ryne; Kenny, Sarah; Bates, Timothy; Mehta, Paras; Fox, John

2011-01-01

OpenMx is free, full-featured, open source, structural equation modeling (SEM) software. OpenMx runs within the "R" statistical programming environment on Windows, Mac OS-X, and Linux computers. The rationale for developing OpenMx is discussed along with the philosophy behind the user interface. The OpenMx data structures are…

Open Source Tools for Numerical Simulation of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nottrott, A.; Tan, S. M.; He, Y.

2016-12-01

There is a global movement toward urbanization. Approximately 7% of the global population lives in just 28 megacities, occupying less than 0.1% of the total land area used by human activity worldwide. These cities contribute a significant fraction of the global budget of anthropogenic primary pollutants and greenhouse gasses. The 27 largest cities consume 9.9%, 9.3%, 6.7% and 3.0% of global gasoline, electricity, energy and water use, respectively. This impact motivates novel approaches to quantify and mitigate the growing contribution of megacity emissions to global climate change. Cities are characterized by complex topography, inhomogeneous turbulence, and variable pollutant source distributions. These features create a scale separation between local sources and urban scale emissions estimates known as the Grey-Zone. Modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques provide a quasi-deterministic, physically based toolset to bridge the scale separation gap between source level dynamics, local measurements, and urban scale emissions inventories. CFD has the capability to represent complex building topography and capture detailed 3D turbulence fields in the urban boundary layer. This presentation discusses the application of OpenFOAM to urban CFD simulations of natural gas leaks in cities. OpenFOAM is an open source software for advanced numerical simulation of engineering and environmental fluid flows. When combined with free or low cost computer aided drawing and GIS, OpenFOAM generates a detailed, 3D representation of urban wind fields. OpenFOAM was applied to model methane (CH4) emissions from various components of the natural gas distribution system, to investigate the impact of urban meteorology on mobile CH4 measurements. The numerical experiments demonstrate that CH4 concentration profiles are highly sensitive to the relative location of emission sources and buildings. Sources separated by distances of 5-10 meters showed significant differences in vertical dispersion of the plume due to building wake effects. The OpenFOAM flow fields were combined with an inverse, stochastic dispersion model to quantify and visualize the sensitivity of point sensors to upwind sources in various built environments.

Population Genetic Structure of a Widespread Bat-Pollinated Columnar Cactus

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Enriquena; Búrquez, Alberto; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis Enrique

2016-01-01

Bats are the main pollinators and seed dispersers of Stenocereus thurberi, a xenogamous columnar cactus of northwestern Mexico and a good model to illustrate spatial dynamics of gene flow in long-lived species. Previous studies in this cactus showed differences among populations in the type and abundance of pollinators, and in the timing of flowering and fruiting. In this study we analyzed genetic variability and population differentiation among populations. We used three primers of ISSR to analyze within and among populations genetic variation from eight widely separated populations of S. thurberi in Sonora, Mexico. Sixty-six out of 99 of the ISSR bands (P = 66.7%) were polymorphic. Total heterozygosity for all populations sampled revealed high genetic diversity (Hsp = 0.207, HBT = 0.224). The AMOVA showed that most of the genetic variation was within populations (80.5%). At the species level, estimates of population differentiation, θ = 0.175 and θB = 0.194, indicated moderate gene flow among populations. The absence of a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated little isolation by geographic distance. The large genetic variation and diversity found in S. thurberi is consistent with its open reproductive system and the high mobility of bats, a major pollinator. However, small changes in number or kind of pollinators and seed dispersal agents, in the directionality of migratory routes, and/or in the timing of flowering and fruiting among populations, can critically affect gene flow dynamics. PMID:27015281

Population Genetic Structure of a Widespread Bat-Pollinated Columnar Cactus.

PubMed

Bustamante, Enriquena; Búrquez, Alberto; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis Enrique

2016-01-01

Bats are the main pollinators and seed dispersers of Stenocereus thurberi, a xenogamous columnar cactus of northwestern Mexico and a good model to illustrate spatial dynamics of gene flow in long-lived species. Previous studies in this cactus showed differences among populations in the type and abundance of pollinators, and in the timing of flowering and fruiting. In this study we analyzed genetic variability and population differentiation among populations. We used three primers of ISSR to analyze within and among populations genetic variation from eight widely separated populations of S. thurberi in Sonora, Mexico. Sixty-six out of 99 of the ISSR bands (P = 66.7%) were polymorphic. Total heterozygosity for all populations sampled revealed high genetic diversity (Hsp = 0.207, HBT = 0.224). The AMOVA showed that most of the genetic variation was within populations (80.5%). At the species level, estimates of population differentiation, θ = 0.175 and θB = 0.194, indicated moderate gene flow among populations. The absence of a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated little isolation by geographic distance. The large genetic variation and diversity found in S. thurberi is consistent with its open reproductive system and the high mobility of bats, a major pollinator. However, small changes in number or kind of pollinators and seed dispersal agents, in the directionality of migratory routes, and/or in the timing of flowering and fruiting among populations, can critically affect gene flow dynamics.

Using CellML with OpenCMISS to Simulate Multi-Scale Physiology

PubMed Central

Nickerson, David P.; Ladd, David; Hussan, Jagir R.; Safaei, Soroush; Suresh, Vinod; Hunter, Peter J.; Bradley, Christopher P.

2014-01-01

OpenCMISS is an open-source modeling environment aimed, in particular, at the solution of bioengineering problems. OpenCMISS consists of two main parts: a computational library (OpenCMISS-Iron) and a field manipulation and visualization library (OpenCMISS-Zinc). OpenCMISS is designed for the solution of coupled multi-scale, multi-physics problems in a general-purpose parallel environment. CellML is an XML format designed to encode biophysically based systems of ordinary differential equations and both linear and non-linear algebraic equations. A primary design goal of CellML is to allow mathematical models to be encoded in a modular and reusable format to aid reproducibility and interoperability of modeling studies. In OpenCMISS, we make use of CellML models to enable users to configure various aspects of their multi-scale physiological models. This avoids the need for users to be familiar with the OpenCMISS internal code in order to perform customized computational experiments. Examples of this are: cellular electrophysiology models embedded in tissue electrical propagation models; material constitutive relationships for mechanical growth and deformation simulations; time-varying boundary conditions for various problem domains; and fluid constitutive relationships and lumped-parameter models. In this paper, we provide implementation details describing how CellML models are integrated into multi-scale physiological models in OpenCMISS. The external interface OpenCMISS presents to users is also described, including specific examples exemplifying the extensibility and usability these tools provide the physiological modeling and simulation community. We conclude with some thoughts on future extension of OpenCMISS to make use of other community developed information standards, such as FieldML, SED-ML, and BioSignalML. Plans for the integration of accelerator code (graphical processing unit and field programmable gate array) generated from CellML models is also discussed. PMID:25601911

High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association.

PubMed

Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S

2017-09-01

With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an F ST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transitions in optimal adaptive strategies for populations in fluctuating environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Andreas; Mora, Thierry; Rivoire, Olivier; Walczak, Aleksandra M.

2017-09-01

Biological populations are subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Different adaptive strategies can allow them to cope with these fluctuations: specialization to one particular environmental condition, adoption of a generalist phenotype that compromises between conditions, or population-wise diversification (bet hedging). Which strategy provides the largest selective advantage in the long run depends on the range of accessible phenotypes and the statistics of the environmental fluctuations. Here, we analyze this problem in a simple mathematical model of population growth. First, we review and extend a graphical method to identify the nature of the optimal strategy when the environmental fluctuations are uncorrelated. Temporal correlations in environmental fluctuations open up new strategies that rely on memory but are mathematically challenging to study: We present analytical results to address this challenge. We illustrate our general approach by analyzing optimal adaptive strategies in the presence of trade-offs that constrain the range of accessible phenotypes. Our results extend several previous studies and have applications to a variety of biological phenomena, from antibiotic resistance in bacteria to immune responses in vertebrates.

Modeling spatial accessibility to parks: a national study.

PubMed

Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Holt, James B

2011-05-09

Parks provide ideal open spaces for leisure-time physical activity and important venues to promote physical activity. The spatial configuration of parks, the number of parks and their spatial distribution across neighborhood areas or local regions, represents the basic park access potential for their residential populations. A new measure of spatial access to parks, population-weighted distance (PWD) to parks, combines the advantages of current park access approaches and incorporates the information processing theory and probability access surface model to more accurately quantify residential population's potential spatial access to parks. The PWD was constructed at the basic level of US census geography - blocks - using US park and population data. This new measure of population park accessibility was aggregated to census tract, county, state and national levels. On average, US residential populations are expected to travel 6.7 miles to access their local neighborhood parks. There are significant differences in the PWD to local parks among states. The District of Columbia and Connecticut have the best access to local neighborhood parks with PWD of 0.6 miles and 1.8 miles, respectively. Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming have the largest PWDs of 62.0, 37.4, and 32.8 miles, respectively. Rural states in the western and Midwestern US have lower neighborhood park access, while urban states have relatively higher park access. The PWD to parks provides a consistent platform for evaluating spatial equity of park access and linking with population health outcomes. It could be an informative evaluation tool for health professionals and policy makers. This new method could be applied to quantify geographic accessibility of other types of services or destinations, such as food, alcohol, and tobacco outlets.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stirling, I.; McDonald, T.L.; Richardson, E.S.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2011-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture–recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2–4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 ± 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (<300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.

PubMed

Stirling, Ian; McDonald, Trent L; Richardson, E S; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steven C

2011-04-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture-recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2-4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 +/- 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (< 300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

PubMed Central

Ferriere, Regis; Legendre, Stéphane

2013-01-01

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps. PMID:23209163

CMCpy: Genetic Code-Message Coevolution Models in Python

PubMed Central

Becich, Peter J.; Stark, Brian P.; Bhat, Harish S.; Ardell, David H.

2013-01-01

Code-message coevolution (CMC) models represent coevolution of a genetic code and a population of protein-coding genes (“messages”). Formally, CMC models are sets of quasispecies coupled together for fitness through a shared genetic code. Although CMC models display plausible explanations for the origin of multiple genetic code traits by natural selection, useful modern implementations of CMC models are not currently available. To meet this need we present CMCpy, an object-oriented Python API and command-line executable front-end that can reproduce all published results of CMC models. CMCpy implements multiple solvers for leading eigenpairs of quasispecies models. We also present novel analytical results that extend and generalize applications of perturbation theory to quasispecies models and pioneer the application of a homotopy method for quasispecies with non-unique maximally fit genotypes. Our results therefore facilitate the computational and analytical study of a variety of evolutionary systems. CMCpy is free open-source software available from http://pypi.python.org/pypi/CMCpy/. PMID:23532367

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a coordinated global network of regional centers, with a high degree of interaction among the centers and the central secretariat. Broad acceptance of the models will be ensured by including local knowledge in all aspects of hazard and risk assessment and securing participation of local experts throughout development. All GEM efforts will be carried out using a common global software infrastructure and consensus standards. In accordance with principles of open-source development, and to ensure comprehensive global representation, contributions are welcomed and encouraged from a broad group of participants. To ensure uniformity and conformance with the highest scientific standards, all contributions, including models, tools, and data, will be rigorously vetted and independently tested. Recently the EUCENTRE in Pavia/Italy has been selected as the host institution of the GEM secretariat. The project will formally launch in early 2009 by creating the non-profit GEM foundation. While GEM serves a humanitarian imperative it is considered as offering a key to long-term economic development. GEM will enhance risk awareness at global, national and local scales. Greater risk awareness is a precondition for motivating public and private parties to investing into risk reduction and loss prevention, and to promote a greater use of financial risk transfer instruments.

Kara Sea radioactivity assessment.

PubMed

Osvath, I; Povinec, P P; Baxter, M S

1999-09-30

Investigations following five international expeditions to the Kara Sea have shown that no radiologically significant contamination has occurred outside of the dumping sites in Novaya Zemlya bays. Increased levels of radionuclides in sediment have only been observed in Abrosimov and Stepovoy Bays very close to dumped containers. Evaluations of radionuclide inventories in water and sediment of the open Kara Sea and Novaya Zemlya bays as well as soil from the shore of Abrosimov bay have shown that radionuclide contamination of the open Kara Sea is mainly due to global fallout, with smaller contributions from the Sellafield reprocessing plant, the Chernobyl accident run-off from the Ob and Yenisey rivers and local fallout. Computer modelling results have shown that maximum annual doses of approximately 1 mSv are expected for a hypothetical critical group subsisting on fish caught in the Novaya Zemlya bays whereas populations living on the mainland can be expected to receive doses at least three orders of magnitude lower.

Glaucoma in Asian Populations

MedlinePlus

... in their Asian counterparts. Normal Tension Glaucoma affects Japanese Japanese populations, however, have a substantially higher incidence of ... factor for open angle glaucoma). In fact, a Japanese study found NTG accounted for 92 percent of ...

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

The world’s user-generated road map is more than 80% complete

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

OpenStreetMap, a crowdsourced geographic database, provides the only global-level, openly licensed source of geospatial road data, and the only national-level source in many countries. However, researchers, policy makers, and citizens who want to make use of OpenStreetMap (OSM) have little information about whether it can be relied upon in a particular geographic setting. In this paper, we use two complementary, independent methods to assess the completeness of OSM road data in each country in the world. First, we undertake a visual assessment of OSM data against satellite imagery, which provides the input for estimates based on a multilevel regression and poststratification model. Second, we fit sigmoid curves to the cumulative length of contributions, and use them to estimate the saturation level for each country. Both techniques may have more general use for assessing the development and saturation of crowd-sourced data. Our results show that in many places, researchers and policymakers can rely on the completeness of OSM, or will soon be able to do so. We find (i) that globally, OSM is ∼83% complete, and more than 40% of countries—including several in the developing world—have a fully mapped street network; (ii) that well-governed countries with good Internet access tend to be more complete, and that completeness has a U-shaped relationship with population density—both sparsely populated areas and dense cities are the best mapped; and (iii) that existing global datasets used by the World Bank undercount roads by more than 30%. PMID:28797037

Genetic data suggest a natural prehuman origin of open habitats in northern Madagascar and question the deforestation narrative in this region.

PubMed

Quéméré, Erwan; Amelot, Xavier; Pierson, Julie; Crouau-Roy, Brigitte; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-08-07

The impact of climate change and anthropogenic deforestation on biodiversity is of growing concern worldwide. Disentangling how past anthropogenic and natural factors contributed to current biome distribution is thus a crucial issue to understand their complex interactions on wider time scales and to improve predictions and conservation strategies. This is particularly important in biodiversity hotspots, such as Madagascar, dominated by large open habitats whose origins are increasingly debated. Although a dominant narrative argues that Madagascar was originally entirely covered by woodlands, which were destroyed by humans, a number of recent studies have suggested that past climatic fluctuations played a major role in shaping current biome distributions well before humans arrived. Here, we address the question of the origin of open habitats in the Daraina region in northern Madagascar, using a multiproxy approach combining population genetics modeling and remote-sensing analyses. We show that (i) contrary to most regions of Madagascar, the forest cover in Daraina remained remarkably stable over the past 60 y, and (ii) the golden-crowned sifaka (Propithecus tattersalli), a forest-dwelling lemur, underwent a strong population contraction before the arrival of the first humans, hence excluding an anthropogenic cause. Prehuman Holocene droughts may have led to a significant increase of grasslands and a reduction in the species' habitat. This contradicts the prevailing narrative that land cover changes are necessarily anthropogenic in Madagascar but does not preclude the later role played by humans in other regions in which recent lemur bottlenecks have been observed.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design.

PubMed

Ai, A L; Ladd, K L; Peterson, C; Cook, C A; Shearer, M; Koenig, H G

2010-12-01

despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. MPLICATIONS: the influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion-health relations.

Teachers' roles in light of massive open online courses (MOOCs): Evolution and challenges in higher distance education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil-Jaurena, Inés; Domínguez, Daniel

2018-03-01

This article analyses the challenges teachers face when entering a digital and open online environment in higher education. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have become a popular phenomenon, making online learning more visible in the educational agenda; therefore, it is appropriate to analyse their expansion and diversification to help inform the next generation of courses. In this article, MOOCs are contextualised in a historical and wider approach to online education, building upon lessons learned from open and distance education, and exploring the introduction of technologies in providing higher education to massive populations over the past 45 years. In particular, the research study presented in this article used the open scholarship approach to analyse many of the changes that can occur in teaching when an open context applies, as in the case of MOOCs. Taking into account that a collaborative online learning experience is influenced by the simultaneous presence and overlap of cognitive, social and teaching elements, the study also used the community of inquiry model as a theoretical framework. In the study, 24 teachers (from the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia [UNED] in Madrid, Spain) were surveyed about their experiences of MOOCs in terms of their current tasks, and the main changes they have observed compared to teaching in a more traditional electronic learning (e-learning) environment (at both graduate and postgraduate levels). These changes in roles, as well as teachers' views about the impact of "massiveness" and "openness" on their understanding and teaching practice, are presented and analysed. Finally, the article also discusses how the evolution towards adapted learning, collaborative learning and assessment supported by technical tools, for example, was already in progress at UNED before MOOCs were initiated.

The easy road to genome-wide medium density SNP screening in a non-model species: development and application of a 10 K SNP-chip for the house sparrow (Passer domesticus).

PubMed

Hagen, Ingerid J; Billing, Anna M; Rønning, Bernt; Pedersen, Sindre A; Pärn, Henrik; Slate, Jon; Jensen, Henrik

2013-05-01

With the advent of next generation sequencing, new avenues have opened to study genomics in wild populations of non-model species. Here, we describe a successful approach to a genome-wide medium density Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) panel in a non-model species, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), through the development of a 10 K Illumina iSelect HD BeadChip. Genomic DNA and cDNA derived from six individuals were sequenced on a 454 GS FLX system and generated a total of 1.2 million sequences, in which SNPs were detected. As no reference genome exists for the house sparrow, we used the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) reference genome to determine the most likely position of each SNP. The 10 000 SNPs on the SNP-chip were selected to be distributed evenly across 31 chromosomes, giving on average one SNP per 100 000 bp. The SNP-chip was screened across 1968 individual house sparrows from four island populations. Of the original 10 000 SNPs, 7413 were found to be variable, and 99% of these SNPs were successfully called in at least 93% of all individuals. We used the SNP-chip to demonstrate the ability of such genome-wide marker data to detect population sub-division, and compared these results to similar analyses using microsatellites. The SNP-chip will be used to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) for fitness-related phenotypic traits in natural populations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza.

PubMed

Chattopadhyay, Ishanu; Kiciman, Emre; Elliott, Joshua W; Shaman, Jeffrey L; Rzhetsky, Andrey

2018-02-27

Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population's socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus' antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population'€™s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies. © 2018, Chattopadhyay et al.

[Health and quality of life vs. occupational activity].

PubMed

Kowalska, Małgorzata; Szemik, Szymon

The level of quality of life and health status of the population largely depends on the determinants related to occupational activity. The results of reviewed bibliography indicate a significant and growing importance of employment conditions on the quality of life and population health status in most countries of the world, especially in those with market economy. Of the evaluated determinants the following factors should be listed in particular: sources and the amount of income, stability of the income and employment, the nature of work and the degree of job satisfaction, as well as autonomy and career prospects. Moreover, they proved that the situation of persisting and long-term unemployment and precarious employment leads to a significant deterioration in the quality of life and health, especially among young people. In conclusion, the study of quality of life and population health status should take into consideration factors related to occupational activity. Med Pr 2016;67(5):663-671. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Factors Affecting Public Preferences for Grassland Landscape Heterogeneity in the Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Omkar; Becerra, Terrie A.; Engle, David M.; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D.; Elmore, R. Dwayne

2017-11-01

Agricultural intensification has fragmented rangelands in the Great Plains, which has contributed to uniform and homogeneous landscapes and decreased biodiversity. Alternative land management practices involving fire-grazing interactions can help maintain biodiversity without affecting livestock productivity. A survey was designed to understand the factors that influence preferences among the general population towards grassland landscape heterogeneity. Given the ordinal nature of survey responses, requisite data were analyzed using a generalized ordinal logit model. Results suggested that respondents who valued open space and those who recognized a need for a varying mix of uniform grasses and grasslands preferred landscape heterogeneity. Female respondents were about two times as likely to prefer heterogeneous landscapes compared to male respondents. In contrast, population groups that preferred wildlife habitat did not desire heterogeneous landscapes. Results suggest the need for extension and outreach activities to educate certain segments of the general population regarding benefits of alternative management practices that support landscape heterogeneity in the Great Plains.

The Importance of Electron Source Population to the Remarkable Enhancement of Radiation belt Electrons during the October 2012 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.; Reeves, G. D.; Chen, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Blake, J. B.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H.

2013-12-01

During the October 8-9 2012 storm, the MeV electron fluxes in the heart of the outer radiation belt are first wiped out then exhibit a three-orders-of-magnitude increase on the timescale of hours, as observed by the MagEIS and REPT instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes. There is strong observational evidence that the remarkable enhancement is due to local acceleration by chorus waves, as shown in the recent Science paper by Reeves et al.1. However, the importance of the dynamic electron source population transported in from the plasma sheet, to the observed remarkable enhancement, has not been studied. We illustrate the importance of the source population with our simulation of the event using the DREAM 3D diffusion model. Three new modifications have been implemented in the model: 1) incorporating a realistic and time-dependent low-energy boundary condition at 100 keV obtained from the MagEIS data; 2) utilizing event-specific chorus wave distributions derived from the low-energy electron precipitation observed by POES and validated against the in situ wave data from EMFISIS; 3) using an ';open' boundary condition at L*=11 and implementing electron lifetimes on the order of the drift period outside the solar-wind driven last closed drift shell. The model quantitatively reproduces the MeV electron dynamics during this event, including the fast dropout at the start of Oct. 8th, low electron flux during the first Dst dip, and the remarkable enhancement peaked at L*=4.2 during the second Dst dip. By comparing the model results with realistic source population against those with constant low-energy boundary (see figure), we find that the realistic electron source population is critical to reproduce the observed fast and significant increase of MeV electrons. 1Reeves, G. D., et al. (2013), Electron Acceleration in the Heart of the Van Allen Radiation Belts, Science, DOI:10.1126/science.1237743. Comparison between data and model results during the October 2012 storm for electrons at μ=3168 MeV/G and K=0.1 G1/2Re. Top plot is the electron phase space density data measured by the two Van Allen Probes; middle plot shows the results from the DREAM 3D diffusion model with a realistic electron source population derived from MagEIS data; and the bottom plot is the model results with a constant source population.

Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics for China.

PubMed

Shen, J

1991-12-01

The population dynamics of China are presented in a multiregional demographic model using regional estimates or mortality and migration based on the 1% population sample survey in 1987. An open ended population account is generated for period cohort a, gender g of region i (urban) and j (rural) using population, birth, death, and migration. Demographic rates and equations for flows of nonsurviving migrants of period cohort a of gender g are estimated using the forward demographic rate definition. Out-migration rates for period cohort a of gender g are defined by migration flow divided by the initial population. The death rate for period cohort A1 and A are estimated using a single region method. Death and migration rates are simultaneously estimated with an iterative procedure. The population accounts estimates and demographic rates are provided for the period ending 1986-87 for male births, males in period cohorts 10 and 20, female births, and females in period cohorts 10 and 20. The urban and rural population projection model is based on the population accounts concept and assumes fixed rates of mortality, migration, and normal fertility for the base year 1987. The results of this projection are a population of 1090 million that will grow to 1304 million in 2000, 1720 million in 2050, and 1791 million in 2087. Urban population will expand from 44.2% in 1988 to 46.6% in 2000, and 54.7% in 2087. The labor population of males 18-65 years and females 18-60 years will increase from 58.8% in 1988 to 59.7% in 2000 and decline to 58.4% by 2087. The old age population of males 65 years and females 60 years will increase from 6.5% in 1988 to 7.9% in 2000, and 16.3% in 2087. The mean age increased from 28.3 years in 1988 to 37 in 2087. Urban population may be underprojected; migration problems are recognized. Fertility also is likely to decline. An alternative projection (B) is given to account for the U-shape distribution and urban fertility of 1.8 in 2000, increasing to and stabilizing at 2.2 in 2020, such that population estimates for 2000 are 1291 and 1524 for 2087 with a peak in 2048 of 1573. A faster fertility decline is also used to generate projection C. The author's projections A, B, and C, which are based on more recent data and a more realistic model, are than the "objective projection" and than the "warning projection" generated by China's Population Census Office based on 1982 census data.

Developing educational resources for population genetics in R: An open and collaborative approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The R computing and statistical language community has developed a myriad of resources for conducting populations genetic analyses. However, resources for learning how to carry out population genetic analyses in R are scattered and often incomplete, which can make acquiring this skill unnecessarily ...

Toward refined estimates of ambient PM2.5 exposure: Evaluation of a physical outdoor-to-indoor transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodas, Natasha; Meng, Qingyu; Lunden, Melissa M.; Turpin, Barbara J.

2014-02-01

Because people spend the majority of their time indoors, the variable efficiency with which ambient PM2.5 penetrates and persists indoors is a source of error in epidemiologic studies that use PM2.5 concentrations measured at central-site monitors as surrogates for ambient PM2.5 exposure. To reduce this error, practical methods to model indoor concentrations of ambient PM2.5 are needed. Toward this goal, we evaluated and refined an outdoor-to-indoor transport model using measured indoor and outdoor PM2.5 species concentrations and air exchange rates from the Relationships of Indoor, Outdoor, and Personal Air Study. Herein, we present model evaluation results, discuss what data are most critical to prediction of residential exposures at the individual-subject and populations levels, and make recommendations for the application of the model in epidemiologic studies. This paper demonstrates that not accounting for certain human activities (air conditioning and heating use, opening windows) leads to bias in predicted residential PM2.5 exposures at the individual-subject level, but not the population level. The analyses presented also provide quantitative evidence that shifts in the gas-particle partitioning of ambient organics with outdoor-to-indoor transport contribute significantly to variability in indoor ambient organic carbon concentrations and suggest that methods to account for these shifts will further improve the accuracy of outdoor-to-indoor transport models.

Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta: a multidisciplinary approach

PubMed Central

del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Rivera-García, Raul; Gómez-Ocampo, Zaneli; Mondragón-Chaparro, Demetria

2013-01-01

Climate change, habitat loss, and harvesting are potential drivers of species extinction. These factors are unlikely to act on isolation, but their combined effects are poorly understood. We explored these effects in Catopsis compacta, an epiphytic bromeliad commercially harvested in Oaxaca, Mexico. We analyzed local climate change projections, the dynamics of the vegetation patches, the distribution of Catopsis in the patches, together with population genetics and demographic information. A drying and warming climate trend projected by most climate change models may contribute to explain the poor forest regeneration. Catopsis shows a positive mean stochastic population growth. A PVA reveals that quasi-extinction probabilities are not significantly affected by the current levels of harvesting or by a high drop in the frequency of wet years (2%) but increase sharply when harvesting intensity duplicates. Genetic analyses show a high population genetic diversity, and no evidences of population subdivision or a past bottleneck. Colonization mostly takes place on hosts at the edges of the fragments. Over the last 27 years, the vegetation cover has being lost at a 0.028 years−1 rate, but fragment perimeter has increased 0.076 years−1. The increases in fragment perimeter and vegetation openness, likely caused by climate change and logging, appear to increase the habitat of Catopsis, enhance gene flow, and maintain a growing and highly genetically diverse population, in spite of harvesting. Our study evidences conflicting requirements between the epiphytes and their hosts and antagonistic effects of climate change and fragmentation with harvesting on a species that can exploit open spaces in the forest. A full understanding of the consequences of potential threatening factors on species persistence or extinction requires the inspection of the interactions of these factors among each other and their effects on both the focus species and the species on which this species depends. PMID:24198951

Sustained Reduction of the Dengue Vector Population Resulting from an Integrated Control Strategy Applied in Two Brazilian Cities

PubMed Central

Regis, Lêda N.; Acioli, Ridelane Veiga; Silveira, José Constantino; Melo-Santos, Maria Alice Varjal; Souza, Wayner Vieira; Ribeiro, Cândida M. Nogueira.; da Silva, Juliana C. Serafim.; Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira; Oliveira, Cláudia M. F.; Barbosa, Rosângela M. R.; Braga, Cynthia; Rodrigues, Marco Aurélio Benedetti; Silva, Marilú Gomes N. M.; Ribeiro Jr., Paulo Justiniano; Bonat, Wagner Hugo; de Castro Medeiros, Liliam César; Carvalho, Marilia Sa; Furtado, André Freire

2013-01-01

Aedes aegypti has developed evolution-driven adaptations for surviving in the domestic human habitat. Several trap models have been designed considering these strategies and tested for monitoring this efficient vector of Dengue. Here, we report a real-scale evaluation of a system for monitoring and controlling mosquito populations based on egg sampling coupled with geographic information systems technology. The SMCP-Aedes, a system based on open technology and open data standards, was set up from March/2008 to October/2011 as a pilot trial in two sites of Pernambuco -Brazil: Ipojuca (10,000 residents) and Santa Cruz (83,000), in a joint effort of health authorities and staff, and a network of scientists providing scientific support. A widespread infestation by Aedes was found in both sites in 2008–2009, with 96.8%–100% trap positivity. Egg densities were markedly higher in SCC than in Ipojuca. A 90% decrease in egg density was recorded in SCC after two years of sustained control pressure imposed by suppression of >7,500,000 eggs and >3,200 adults, plus larval control by adding fishes to cisterns. In Ipojuca, 1.1 million mosquito eggs were suppressed and a 77% reduction in egg density was achieved. This study aimed at assessing the applicability of a system using GIS and spatial statistic analysis tools for quantitative assessment of mosquito populations. It also provided useful information on the requirements for reducing well-established mosquito populations. Results from two cities led us to conclude that the success in markedly reducing an Aedes population required the appropriate choice of control measures for sustained mass elimination guided by a user-friendly mosquito surveillance system. The system was able to support interventional decisions and to assess the program’s success. Additionally, it created a stimulating environment for health staff and residents, which had a positive impact on their commitment to the dengue control program. PMID:23844059

Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta: a multidisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Rivera-García, Raul; Gómez-Ocampo, Zaneli; Mondragón-Chaparro, Demetria

2013-10-01

Climate change, habitat loss, and harvesting are potential drivers of species extinction. These factors are unlikely to act on isolation, but their combined effects are poorly understood. We explored these effects in Catopsis compacta, an epiphytic bromeliad commercially harvested in Oaxaca, Mexico. We analyzed local climate change projections, the dynamics of the vegetation patches, the distribution of Catopsis in the patches, together with population genetics and demographic information. A drying and warming climate trend projected by most climate change models may contribute to explain the poor forest regeneration. Catopsis shows a positive mean stochastic population growth. A PVA reveals that quasi-extinction probabilities are not significantly affected by the current levels of harvesting or by a high drop in the frequency of wet years (2%) but increase sharply when harvesting intensity duplicates. Genetic analyses show a high population genetic diversity, and no evidences of population subdivision or a past bottleneck. Colonization mostly takes place on hosts at the edges of the fragments. Over the last 27 years, the vegetation cover has being lost at a 0.028 years(-1) rate, but fragment perimeter has increased 0.076 years(-1). The increases in fragment perimeter and vegetation openness, likely caused by climate change and logging, appear to increase the habitat of Catopsis, enhance gene flow, and maintain a growing and highly genetically diverse population, in spite of harvesting. Our study evidences conflicting requirements between the epiphytes and their hosts and antagonistic effects of climate change and fragmentation with harvesting on a species that can exploit open spaces in the forest. A full understanding of the consequences of potential threatening factors on species persistence or extinction requires the inspection of the interactions of these factors among each other and their effects on both the focus species and the species on which this species depends.

On the determination of age and mass functions of stars in young open star clusters from the analysis of their luminosity functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piskunov, A. E.; Belikov, A. N.; Kharchenko, N. V.; Sagar, R.; Subramaniam, A.

2004-04-01

We construct the observed luminosity functions of the remote young open clusters NGC 2383, 2384, 4103, 4755, 7510 and Hogg 15 from CCD observations of them. The observed LFs are corrected for field star contamination determined with the help of a Galactic star count model. In the case of Hogg 15 and NGC 2383 we also consider the additional contamination from neighbouring clusters NGC 4609 and 2384, respectively. These corrections provide a realistic pattern of cluster LF in the vicinity of the main-sequence (MS) turn-on point and at fainter magnitudes reveal the so-called H-feature arising as a result of the transition of the pre-MS phase to the MS, which is dependent on the cluster age. The theoretical LFs are constructed representing a cluster population model with continuous star formation for a short time-scale and a power-law initial mass function (IMF), and these are fitted to the observed LF. As a result, we are able to determine for each cluster a set of parameters describing the cluster population (the age, duration of star formation, IMF slope and percentage of field star contamination). It is found that in spite of the non-monotonic behaviour of observed LFs, cluster IMFs can be described as power-law functions with slopes similar to Salpeter's value. The present main-sequence turn-on cluster ages are several times lower than those derived from the fitting of theoretical isochrones to the turn-off region of the upper main sequences.

Atlas-Guided Segmentation of Vervet Monkey Brain MRI

PubMed Central

Fedorov, Andriy; Li, Xiaoxing; Pohl, Kilian M; Bouix, Sylvain; Styner, Martin; Addicott, Merideth; Wyatt, Chris; Daunais, James B; Wells, William M; Kikinis, Ron

2011-01-01

The vervet monkey is an important nonhuman primate model that allows the study of isolated environmental factors in a controlled environment. Analysis of monkey MRI often suffers from lower quality images compared with human MRI because clinical equipment is typically used to image the smaller monkey brain and higher spatial resolution is required. This, together with the anatomical differences of the monkey brains, complicates the use of neuroimage analysis pipelines tuned for human MRI analysis. In this paper we developed an open source image analysis framework based on the tools available within the 3D Slicer software to support a biological study that investigates the effect of chronic ethanol exposure on brain morphometry in a longitudinally followed population of male vervets. We first developed a computerized atlas of vervet monkey brain MRI, which was used to encode the typical appearance of the individual brain structures in MRI and their spatial distribution. The atlas was then used as a spatial prior during automatic segmentation to process two longitudinal scans per subject. Our evaluation confirms the consistency and reliability of the automatic segmentation. The comparison of atlas construction strategies reveals that the use of a population-specific atlas leads to improved accuracy of the segmentation for subcortical brain structures. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we describe an image processing workflow specifically tuned towards the analysis of vervet MRI that consists solely of the open source software tools. Second, we develop a digital atlas of vervet monkey brain MRIs to enable similar studies that rely on the vervet model. PMID:22253661

DETECTION OF A STELLAR STREAM BEHIND OPEN CLUSTER NGC 188: ANOTHER PART OF THE MONOCEROS STREAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casetti-Dinescu, Dana I.; Girard, Terrence M.; Van Altena, William F.

2010-05-15

We present results from a WIYN/Orthogonal Parallel Transfer Imaging Camera photometric and astrometric survey of the field of the open cluster NGC 188 ((l, b) = (122.{sup 0}8, 22.{sup 0}5)). We combine these results with the proper-motion and photometry catalog of Platais et al. and demonstrate the existence of a stellar overdensity in the background of NGC 188. The theoretical isochrone fits to the color-magnitude diagram of the overdensity are consistent with an age between 6 and 10 Gyr and an intermediately metal poor population ([Fe/H] = -0.5 to -1.0). The distance to the overdensity is estimated to be betweenmore » 10.0 and 12.6 kpc. The proper motions indicate that the stellar population of the overdensity is kinematically cold. The distance estimate and the absolute proper motion of the overdensity agree reasonably well with the predictions of the Penarrubia et al. model of the formation of the Monoceros stream. Orbits for this material constructed with plausible radial-velocity values, indicate that dynamically, this material is unlikely to belong to the thick disk. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the newly found overdensity is part of the Monoceros stream.« less

The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards.

PubMed

Logan, Michael L; Huynh, Ryan K; Precious, Rachel A; Calsbeek, Ryan G

2013-10-01

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km(2), whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high-resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open-habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open-habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global-scale predictions generated using low-resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Models of red giants in the CoRoT asteroseismology fields combining asteroseismic and spectroscopic constraints - The open cluster NGC 6633 and field stars-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagarde, Nadège; Miglio, Andrea; Eggenberger, Patrick; Morel, Thierry; Montalbàn, Josefina; Mosser, Benoit

2015-08-01

The availability of asteroseismic constraints for a large sample of red giant stars from the CoRoT and Kepler missions paves the way for various statistical studies of the seismic properties of stellar populations.We use the first detailed spectroscopic study of CoRoT red-giant stars (Morel et al 2014) to compare theoretical stellar evolution models to observations of the open cluster NGC 6633 and field stars.In order to explore the effects of rotation-induced mixing and thermohaline instability, we compare surface abundances of carbon isotopic ratio and lithium with stellar evolution predictions. These chemicals are sensitive to extra-mixing on the red-giant branch.We estimate mass, radius, and distance for each star using the seismic constraints. We note that the Hipparcos and seismic distances are different. However, the uncertainties are such that this may not be significant. Although the seismic distances for the cluster members are self consistent they are somewhat larger than the Hipparcos distance. This is an issue that should be considered elsewhere. Models including thermohaline instability and rotation-induced mixing, together with the seismically determined masses can explain the chemical properties of red-giants targets. Tighter constraints on the physics of the models would be possible if there were detailed knowledge of the core rotation rate and the asymptotic period spacing.

Combined behavioral studies and in vivo imaging of inflammatory response and expression of mGlu5 receptors in schnurri-2 knockout mice.

PubMed

Choi, Ji-Kyung; Zhu, Aijun; Jenkins, Bruce G; Hattori, Satoko; Kil, Kun-Eek; Takagi, Tsuyoshi; Ishii, Shunsuke; Miyakawa, Tsuyoshi; Brownell, Anna-Liisa

2015-11-16

Schnurri-2 (Shn-2) knockout (KO) mice have been proposed as a preclinical neuroinflammatory schizophrenia model. We used behavioral studies and imaging markers that can be readily translated to human populations to explore brain effects of inflammation. Shn-2 KO mice and their littermate control mice were imaged with two novel PET ligands; an inflammation marker [(11)C]PBR28 and the mGluR5 ligand [(18)F]FPEB. Locomotor activity was measured using open field exploration with saline, methamphetamine or amphetamine challenge. A significantly increased accumulation of [(11)C]PBR28 was found in the cortex, striatum, hippocampus and olfactory bulb of Shn-2 KO mice. Increased mGluR5 binding was also observed in the cortex and hippocampus of the Shn-2 KO mice. Open field locomotor testing revealed a large increase in novelty-induced hyperlocomotion in Shn-2 KO mice with abnormal (decreased) responses to either methamphetamine or amphetamine. These data provide additional support to demonstrate that the Shn-2 KO mouse model exhibits several behavioral and pathological markers resembling human schizophrenia making it an attractive translational model for the disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, Matthew; LeClair, Josh; Wahl, Lindi M.; Zamir, Mair

2017-01-01

We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca) to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters. The simulation tracks bees of different ages and castes, food stores within the colony, pollen and nectar sources and the spatial position of individual foragers outside the hive. We track explicitly the intake of pesticides in individual bees and their ability to metabolize these toxins, such that the impact of sub-lethal doses of pesticides can be explored. Moreover, pathogen populations (in particular, Nosema apis, Nosema cerenae and Varroa mites) have been included in the model and may be introduced at any time or location. The ability to study interactions among pesticides, climate, biodiversity and pathogens in this predictive framework should prove useful to a wide range of researchers studying honey bee populations. To this end, the simulation package is written in open source, object-oriented code (C++) and can be easily modified by the user. Here, we demonstrate the use of the model by exploring the effects of sub-lethal pesticide exposure on the flight behaviour of foragers. PMID:28287445

Population pharmacokinetics and penetration into prostatic, seminal, and vaginal fluid for ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and their combination.

PubMed

Bulitta, Jurgen B; Kinzig, Martina; Naber, Christoph K; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Sauber, Christian; Landersdorfer, Cornelia B; Sörgel, Fritz; Naber, Kurt G

2011-01-01

Our objectives were to assess the pharmacokinetic interaction and body fluid penetration of ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin. This study was a single-dose open randomized three-way crossover in 15 healthy volunteers receiving 500 mg oral levofloxacin, 500 mg oral ciprofloxacin, or 250 mg levofloxacin and 250 mg ciprofloxacin co-administered. Serum, urine, and body fluid concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography and analyzed via population pharmacokinetic modeling. Modeling indicated that ciprofloxacin inhibited the renal reabsorption of levofloxacin. Ciprofloxacin increased the net renal clearance of levofloxacin by 13%, as its estimated affinity for a putative tubular reabsorption transporter was 12-fold higher (Km: 568 μM) compared to levofloxacin (Km: 6,830 μM). Levofloxacin increased the bioavailability of ciprofloxacin by 12% and achieved significantly (p < 0.05) higher concentrations at 3 h in ejaculate, prostatic, seminal, and vaginal fluid compared to ciprofloxacin. Modeling suggested that ciprofloxacin inhibited the tubular reabsorption of levofloxacin due to a 12-fold higher affinity for a putative tubular reabsorption transporter compared to levofloxacin. This pharmacokinetic interaction was not clinically relevant. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Results of operative fixation of unstable ankle fractures in geriatric patients.

PubMed

Pagliaro, A J; Michelson, J D; Mizel, M S

2001-05-01

It is widely accepted that operative fixation of unstable ankle fractures yields predictably good outcomes in the general population. The current literature, however reports less acceptable results in the geriatric population age 65 years and older. The current study analyzes the outcome of the surgical treatment of unstable ankle fractures in patients at least 65 years old. Twenty three patient over 65 years old were surgically treated after sustaining 21 (91%) closed and 2 (9%) open grade II unstable ankle fractures. Fractures were classified according to the Danis-Weber and Lauge-Hansen schemes. Fracture type was predominantly Weber B (21/23, 91%), or supination external rotation stage IV (21/23, 91%). Fracture union rate was 100%. There were three significant complications including a lateral wound dehiscence with delayed fibular union in an open fracture dislocation, and two below knee amputations, neither of which was directly related to the fracture treatment. There were three minor complications; one superficial wound infection and two cases of prolonged incision drainage, all of which resolved without further surgical intervention. Complications were associated with open fractures and preexisting systemic disease. These results indicate that open reduction and internal fixation of unstable ankle fractures in geriatric patients is an efficacious treatment regime that with results that are comparable to the general population.

Long-Period Planets in Open Clusters and the Evolution of Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Samuel N.; White, Russel; Latham, David W.; Stefanik, Robert

2018-01-01

Recent discoveries of giant planets in open clusters confirm that they do form and migrate in relatively dense stellar groups, though overall occurrence rates are not yet well constrained because the small sample of giant planets discovered thus far predominantly have short periods. Moreover, planet formation rates and the architectures of planetary systems in clusters may vary significantly -- e.g., due to intercluster differences in the chemical properties that regulate the growth of planetary embryos or in the stellar space density and binary populations, which can influence the dynamical evolution of planetary systems. Constraints on the population of long-period Jovian planets -- those representing the reservoir from which many hot Jupiters likely form, and which are most vulnerable to intracluster dynamical interactions -- can help quantify how the birth environment affects formation and evolution, particularly through comparison of populations possessing a range of ages and chemical and dynamical properties. From our ongoing RV survey of open clusters, we present the discovery of several long-period planets and candidate substellar companions in the Praesepe, Coma Berenices, and Hyades open clusters. From these discoveries, we improve estimates of giant planet occurrence rates in clusters, and we note that high eccentricities in several of these systems support the prediction that the birth environment helps shape planetary system architectures.

Correction to: Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autoimmune diseases are modified by sex: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Hegvik, Tor-Arne; Instanes, Johanne Telnes; Haavik, Jan; Klungsøyr, Kari; Engeland, Anders

2018-05-01

The article "Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autoimmune diseases are modified by sex: a population-based cross-sectional study", written by Tor-Arne Hegvik, Johanne Telnes Instanes, Jan Haavik, Kari Klungsøyr and Anders Engeland, was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on October 5, 2017 without open access due to an error by the Springer editorial office in the processing of this article. The authors had originally opted for open access.

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in ecosystem service provision based on the outcomes of alternative land use change model scenarios. Stakeholder workshops were hosted to develop scenarios relevant to planning for future growth in the County, including alternative zoning regulations, road network improvements, and a range of future population projections. The results of the land use change simulations were passed to ARIES to model flood protection and water provision services for each of the alternative scenarios. We present Bayesian models of the ecosystem services as individual source, sink, and use components coupled with models of temporal and spatial flows of services across the landscape. Specific beneficiaries include homeowners, farmers, and other business property owners. The location choice decisions of residential and non-residential agents under the alternative scenarios resulted in varying access to ecosystem services depending on development density, habitat fragmentation, and the degree of hydrological impairment, among other factors. Modeled outputs include maps depicting flow paths (linking sources to beneficiaries), changes in land use, hotspot locations that are critical to sustain the flow of services across the landscape, and the demand for and supply of the modeled services.

Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niemiller, Matthew L.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Fenolio, Dante B.; Reynolds, R. Graham; Taylor, Steven J.; Miller, Brian T.

2016-01-01

Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark–recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3–5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

The OpenCourseWare Model: High-Impact Open Educational Content

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carson, Stephen

2007-01-01

OpenCourseWare (OCW) is one among several models for offering open educational resources (OER). This article explains the OCW model and its position within the broader OER context. OCW primarily represents publication of existing course materials already in use for teaching purposes. OCW projects are most often institutional, carrying the…

Estimates of vital rates for a declining loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) subpopulation: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamont, Margaret M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Carthy, Raymond R.

2014-01-01

Because subpopulations can differ geographically, genetically and/or phenotypically, using data from one subpopulation to derive vital rates for another, while often unavoidable, is not optimal. We used a two-state open robust design model to analyze a 14-year dataset (1998–2011) from the St. Joseph Peninsula, Florida (USA; 29.748°, −85.400°) which is the densest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beach in the Northern Gulf of Mexico subpopulation. For these analyses, 433 individuals were marked of which only 7.2 % were observed re-nesting in the study area in subsequent years during the study period. Survival was estimated at 0.86 and is among the highest estimates for all subpopulations in the Northwest Atlantic population. The robust model estimated a nesting assemblage size that ranged from 32 to 230 individuals each year with an annual average of 110. The model estimates indicated an overall population decline of 17 %. The results presented here for this nesting group represent the first estimates for this subpopulation. These data provide managers with information specific to this subpopulation that can be used to develop recovery plans and conduct subpopulation-specific modeling exercises explicit to the challenges faced by turtles nesting in this region.

Identification d'indicateurs de risque des populations victimes de conflits par imagerie satellitaire. Etude de cas: Le nord de l'Irak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubareka, Sarah Betoul

Remote sensing and security, terms which are not usually associated, have found a common platform this decade with the conjuring of the GMOSS network (Global Monitoring for Security and Stability), whose mandate is to discover new applications for satellite-derived imagery to security issues. This study focuses on human security, concentrating on the characterisation of vulnerable areas to conflict. A time-series of satellite imagery taken from Landsat sensors from 1987 to 2001 and the SRTM mission imagery are used for this purpose over a site in northern Iraq. Human security issues include the exposure to any type of hazard. The region of study is first characterised in order to understand which hazards are and were present in the past for the region of study. The principal hazard for the region of study is armed conflict and the relative field data was analysed to determine the links between geographical indicators and vulnerable areas. This is done through historical research and the study of open-sourced information about disease outbreaks; the movements of refugees and the internally displaced; and humanitarian aid and security issues. These open sources offer information which are not always consistent, objective, or normalized and are therefore difficult to quantify. A method for the rapid mapping and graphing and subsequent analysis of the situation in a region where limited information is available is developed. This information is coupled with population numbers to create a "risk map": A disaggregated matrix of areas most at risk during conflict situations. The results show that describing the risk factor for a population to the hazard conflict depends on three complex indicators: Population density, remoteness and economic diversity. Each of these complex indicators is then derived from Landsat and SRTM imagery and a satellite-driven model is formulated. This model based on satellite imagery is applied to the study site for a temporal study. The output are three 90 m x 90 m resolution grids which describe, at a pixel level, the risk level within the region for each of the dates studies, and the changes which occur in northern Iraq as the result of the Anfal Campaigns. Results show that satellite imagery, with a minimum of processing, can yield indicators for characterising risk in a region. Although by no means a replacement for field data, this technological source, in the absence of local knowledge, can provide users with a starting point in understanding which areas are most at risk within a region. If this data is coupled with open sourced information such as political and cultural discrimination, economy and agricultural practices, a fairly accurate risk map can be generated in the absence of field data. Keywords. SRTM, Landsat, risk indicators, Iraq, conflict, population vulnerability, segmentation, land-use, fuzzy-classification, atmospheric corrections.

THE YOUNG OPEN CLUSTER BERKELEY 55

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Negueruela, Ignacio; Marco, Amparo, E-mail: ignacio.negueruela@ua.es, E-mail: amparo.marco@ua.es

We present UBV photometry of the highly reddened and poorly studied open cluster Berkeley 55, revealing an important population of B-type stars and several evolved stars of high luminosity. Intermediate-resolution far-red spectra of several candidate members confirm the presence of one F-type supergiant and six late supergiants or bright giants. The brightest blue stars are mid-B giants. Spectroscopic and photometric analyses indicate an age 50 {+-} 10 Myr. The cluster is located at a distance d Almost-Equal-To 4 kpc, consistent with other tracers of the Perseus Arm in this direction. Berkeley 55 is thus a moderately young open cluster withmore » a sizable population of candidate red (super)giant members, which can provide valuable information about the evolution of intermediate-mass stars.« less

Transoral endoscopic esophageal myotomy based on esophageal function testing in a survival porcine model.

PubMed

Perretta, Silvana; Dallemagne, Bernard; Donatelli, Gianfranco; Diemunsch, Pierre; Marescaux, Jacques

2011-01-01

The most effective treatment of achalasia is Heller myotomy. To explore a submucosal endoscopic myotomy technique tailored on esophageal physiology testing and to compare it with the open technique. Prospective acute and survival comparative study in pigs (n = 12; 35 kg). University animal research center. Eight acute-4 open and 4 endoscopic-myotomies followed by 4 survival endoscopic procedures. Preoperative and postoperative manometry; esophagogastric junction (EGJ) distensibility before and after selective division of muscular fibers at the EGJ and after the myotomy was prolonged to a standard length by using the EndoFLIP Functional Lumen Imaging Probe (Crospon, Galway, Ireland). All procedures were successful, with no intraoperative and postoperative complications. In the survival group, the animals recovered promptly from surgery. Postoperative manometry demonstrated a 50% drop in mean lower esophageal sphincter pressure (LESp) in the endoscopic group (mean preoperative LESp, 22.2 ± 3.3 mm Hg; mean postoperative LESp, 11.34 ± 2.7 mm Hg; P < .005) and a 69% loss in the open procedure group (mean preoperative LESp, 24.2 ± 3.2 mm Hg; mean postoperative LESp, 7.4 ± 4 mm Hg; P < .005). The EndoFLIP monitoring did not show any distensibility difference between the 2 techniques, with the main improvement occurring when the clasp circular fibers were taken. Healthy animal model; small sample. Endoscopic submucosal esophageal myotomy is feasible and safe. The lack of a significant difference in EGJ distensibility between the open and endoscopic procedure is very appealing. Were it to be perfected in a human population, this endoscopic approach could suggest a new strategy in the treatment of selected achalasia patients. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced-Order Model for Leakage Through an Open Wellbore from the Reservoir due to Carbon Dioxide Injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Lehua; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

Potential CO 2 leakage through existing open wellbores is one of the most significant hazards that need to be addressed in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) projects. In the framework of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) which requires fast computations for uncertainty analysis, rigorous simulation of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system is not practical. We have developed a 7,200-point look-up table reduced-order model (ROM) for estimating the potential leakage rate up open wellbores in response to CO 2 injection nearby. The ROM is based on coupled simulations using T2Well/ECO2H which was run repeatedly for representative conditions relevant to NRAP to createmore » a look-up table response-surface ROM. The ROM applies to a wellbore that fully penetrates a 20-m thick reservoir that is used for CO 2 storage. The radially symmetric reservoir is assumed to have initially uniform pressure, temperature, gas saturation, and brine salinity, and it is assumed these conditions are held constant at the far-field boundary (100 m away from the wellbore). In such a system, the leakage can quickly reach quasi-steady state. The ROM table can be used to estimate both the free-phase CO 2 and brine leakage rates through an open well as a function of wellbore and reservoir conditions. Results show that injection-induced pressure and reservoir gas saturation play important roles in controlling leakage. Caution must be used in the application of this ROM because well leakage is formally transient and the ROM lookup table was populated using quasi-steady simulation output after 1000 time steps which may correspond to different physical times for the various parameter combinations of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system.« less

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Nebula Scale Mixing Between Non-Carbonaceous and Carbonaceous Chondrite Reservoirs: Testing the Grand Tack Model with Almahata Sitta Stones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yin, Q.-Z.; Sanborn, M. E.; Goodrich, C. A.; Zolensky, M.; Fioretti, A. M.; Shaddad, M.; Kohl, I. E.; Young, E. D.

2018-01-01

There is an increasing number of Cr-O-Ti isotope studies that show that solar system materials are divided into two main populations, one carbonaceous chondrite (CC)-like and the other is non-carbonaceous (NCC)-like, with minimal mixing between them attributed to a gap opened in the propoplanetary disk due to Jupiter's formation. The Grand Tack model suggests that there should be a particular time in the disk history when this gap is breached and ensuring a subsequent large-scale mixing between S- and C-type asteroids (inner solar system and outer solar system materials), an idea supported by our recent work on chondrule (Delta)17O-(epsilon)54Cr isotope systematics.

Open-angle glaucoma in patients with diabetic retinopathy at the Puerto Rico Medical Center.

PubMed

Cruz-lñigo, Yousef; Izquierdo, Natalio J; García, Omar; Pérez, Raúl

2012-01-01

The association of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) with diabetes mellitus remains controversial. We report on the frequency of open-angle glaucoma in patients having diabetic retinopathy in a population of the Puerto Rico Medical Center. A cross-sectional study of 1,442 patients was done. Only the chart of patients 40 years-of-age and older, with a diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy and/or open-angle glaucoma were included. Descriptive analysis was done. Unadjusted and gender-adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to estimate risk of developing open-angle glaucoma in patients with diabetic retinopathy for each subsequent decade. 1,040 patients were diagnosed with diabetic retinopathy from July 1, 2004 to June 30, 2009. Also, 402 patients were diagnosed with open-angle glaucoma from July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009. Of the 1,040 patients with diabetic retinopathy, 64 patients (6.15%) also had OAG. According to our gender-adjusted logistic regression analysis the estimated risk of developing open-angle glaucoma for patients 40 years-of-age with diabetic retinopathy increased for each subsequent decade until the seventh decade, odds ratio = 5.07 (95% confidence interval: 1.62-15.86). Thereafter, it decreased, odds ratio = 2.07 (95% confidence interval: 0.36-11.82). Our findings suggest that Puerto Rico patients between 40 to 79 years of age with diabetic retinopathy have an increased risk of developing open-angle glaucoma with each subsequent decade. Screening for open-angle glaucoma in patients with diabetic retinopathy is of utmost importance in the aging Puerto Rico population to prevent blindness.

Special population planner 4 : an open source release.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuiper, J.; Metz, W.; Tanzman, E.

2008-01-01

Emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and the recent California wildfires underscore the critical need to meet the complex challenge of planning for individuals with special needs and for institutionalized special populations. People with special needs and special populations often have difficulty responding to emergencies or taking protective actions, and emergency responders may be unaware of their existence and situations during a crisis. Special Population Planner (SPP) is an ArcGIS-based emergency planning system released as an open source product. SPP provides for easy production of maps, reports, and analyses to develop and revise emergency response plans. It includes tools to manage amore » voluntary registry of data for people with special needs, integrated links to plans and documents, tools for response planning and analysis, preformatted reports and maps, and data on locations of special populations, facility and resource characteristics, and contacts. The system can be readily adapted for new settings without programming and is broadly applicable. Full documentation and a demonstration database are included in the release.« less

Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

2006-01-01

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Theory of correlation in a network with synaptic depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Yasuhiko; Oizumi, Masafumi; Okada, Masato

2012-01-01

Synaptic depression affects not only the mean responses of neurons but also the correlation of response variability in neural populations. Although previous studies have constructed a theory of correlation in a spiking neuron model by using the mean-field theory framework, synaptic depression has not been taken into consideration. We expanded the previous theoretical framework in this study to spiking neuron models with short-term synaptic depression. On the basis of this theory we analytically calculated neural correlations in a ring attractor network with Mexican-hat-type connectivity, which was used as a model of the primary visual cortex. The results revealed that synaptic depression reduces neural correlation, which could be beneficial for sensory coding. Furthermore, our study opens the way for theoretical studies on the effect of interaction change on the linear response function in large stochastic networks.

The Sequences of 1504 Mutants in the Model Rice Variety Kitaake Facilitate Rapid Functional Genomic Studies

PubMed Central

Pham, Nikki T.; Wei, Tong; Schackwitz, Wendy S.; Lipzen, Anna M.; Duong, Phat Q.; Jones, Kyle C.; Ruan, Deling; Bauer, Diane; Peng, Yi; Schmutz, Jeremy

2017-01-01

The availability of a whole-genome sequenced mutant population and the cataloging of mutations of each line at a single-nucleotide resolution facilitate functional genomic analysis. To this end, we generated and sequenced a fast-neutron-induced mutant population in the model rice cultivar Kitaake (Oryza sativa ssp japonica), which completes its life cycle in 9 weeks. We sequenced 1504 mutant lines at 45-fold coverage and identified 91,513 mutations affecting 32,307 genes, i.e., 58% of all rice genes. We detected an average of 61 mutations per line. Mutation types include single-base substitutions, deletions, insertions, inversions, translocations, and tandem duplications. We observed a high proportion of loss-of-function mutations. We identified an inversion affecting a single gene as the causative mutation for the short-grain phenotype in one mutant line. This result reveals the usefulness of the resource for efficient, cost-effective identification of genes conferring specific phenotypes. To facilitate public access to this genetic resource, we established an open access database called KitBase that provides access to sequence data and seed stocks. This population complements other available mutant collections and gene-editing technologies. This work demonstrates how inexpensive next-generation sequencing can be applied to generate a high-density catalog of mutations. PMID:28576844

New Regions of the Human Genome Linked to Skin Color Variation in Some African Populations

Cancer.gov

In the first study of its kind, an international team of genomics researchers has identified new regions of the human genome that are associated with skin color variation in some African populations, opening new avenues for research on skin diseases and cancer in all populations.

Dynamic occupancy models for explicit colonization processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday

2016-01-01

The dynamic, multi-season occupancy model framework has become a popular tool for modeling open populations with occupancies that change over time through local colonizations and extinctions. However, few versions of the model relate these probabilities to the occupancies of neighboring sites or patches. We present a modeling framework that incorporates this information and is capable of describing a wide variety of spatiotemporal colonization and extinction processes. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a simple set of small-scale rules describing how the process evolves. The result is a dynamic process that can account for complicated large-scale features. In our model, a site is more likely to be colonized if more of its neighbors were previously occupied and if it provides more appealing environmental characteristics than its neighboring sites. Additionally, a site without occupied neighbors may also become colonized through the inclusion of a long-distance dispersal process. Although similar model specifications have been developed for epidemiological applications, ours formally accounts for detectability using the well-known occupancy modeling framework. After demonstrating the viability and potential of this new form of dynamic occupancy model in a simulation study, we use it to obtain inference for the ongoing Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) invasion in South Africa. Our results suggest that the Common Myna continues to enlarge its distribution and its spread via short distance movement, rather than long-distance dispersal. Overall, this new modeling framework provides a powerful tool for managers examining the drivers of colonization including short- vs. long-distance dispersal, habitat quality, and distance from source populations.

A biophysical observation model for field potentials of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Beim Graben, Peter; Rodrigues, Serafim

2012-01-01

We present a biophysical approach for the coupling of neural network activity as resulting from proper dipole currents of cortical pyramidal neurons to the electric field in extracellular fluid. Starting from a reduced three-compartment model of a single pyramidal neuron, we derive an observation model for dendritic dipole currents in extracellular space and thereby for the dendritic field potential (DFP) that contributes to the local field potential (LFP) of a neural population. This work aligns and satisfies the widespread dipole assumption that is motivated by the "open-field" configuration of the DFP around cortical pyramidal cells. Our reduced three-compartment scheme allows to derive networks of leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) models, which facilitates comparison with existing neural network and observation models. In particular, by means of numerical simulations we compare our approach with an ad hoc model by Mazzoni et al. (2008), and conclude that our biophysically motivated approach yields substantial improvement.

A biophysical observation model for field potentials of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons

PubMed Central

beim Graben, Peter; Rodrigues, Serafim

2013-01-01

We present a biophysical approach for the coupling of neural network activity as resulting from proper dipole currents of cortical pyramidal neurons to the electric field in extracellular fluid. Starting from a reduced three-compartment model of a single pyramidal neuron, we derive an observation model for dendritic dipole currents in extracellular space and thereby for the dendritic field potential (DFP) that contributes to the local field potential (LFP) of a neural population. This work aligns and satisfies the widespread dipole assumption that is motivated by the “open-field” configuration of the DFP around cortical pyramidal cells. Our reduced three-compartment scheme allows to derive networks of leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) models, which facilitates comparison with existing neural network and observation models. In particular, by means of numerical simulations we compare our approach with an ad hoc model by Mazzoni et al. (2008), and conclude that our biophysically motivated approach yields substantial improvement. PMID:23316157

Will choice-based reform work for Medicare? Evidence from the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program.

PubMed

Florence, Curtis S; Atherly, Adam; Thorpe, Kenneth E

2006-10-01

. To examine the effect of premiums and benefits on the health plan choices of older enrollees who choose Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP) health plans as their primary payer. Administrative enrollment data from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and plan premiums and benefits data taken from the Checkbook Guide to health plans. We estimate individual plan choice models where the choice of health plan is a function of out-of-pocket premium, actuarial value, plan attributes, and individual characteristics. Plan attributes include plan structure (fee-for-service/preferred provider organization, point-of-service, or health maintenance organization), drug benefit structure, and whether or not the plan covers other types of spending such as dental services and diabetic supplies. The models are estimated by conditional logit. Our study focuses on three populations that currently choose FEHBP as their primary health care coverage and are similar to the Medicare population: current employees and retirees who are approaching the age of Medicare eligibility (ages 60-64) and current federal employees age 65+. Current employees age 65+ are eligible for Medicare, but their FEHBP plan is their primary payer. Retirees and employees 60-64 are not yet eligible for Medicare but are similar in many respects to recently age-eligible Medicare beneficiaries. We also estimate our model for current employees age 55 and younger as a comparison group. We select a random sample of retirees and employees age 60-64, as well as all current employees age 65+, from the OPM administrative database for the calendar year 2001. The plan choices available to each person are determined by the plans participating in their metropolitan statistical area. We match plan premium and attribute information from the Checkbook Guide to each plan in the enrollee's list of choices. We find that current workers 65+, 60-64, and non-Medicare eligible retirees are sensitive to variation in plan premiums. The premium elasticities for these groups are similar in magnitude to those of the age 55 and under employee group. Older workers and retirees not yet eligible for Medicare are willing to pay a substantial amount for plans with open provider networks. The willingness to pay for open networks is significantly greater for these groups than for younger employees. Willingness to pay for open network plans varies significantly by income, but varies little by age within group. Our finding that older workers and non-Medicare eligible retirees are sensitive to plan premiums suggests that choice-based reform of Medicare would lead to cost-conscious choices by Medicare beneficiaries. However, our finding that these groups are willing to pay more for open network plans than younger employees suggest that higher risk individuals may migrate toward higher benefit, higher cost plans. Our findings on the relationship between income and willingness to pay for open network plans suggest that means testing is a viable reform for lowering Medicare program costs.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity. PMID:28060865

Age and anemia management: relationship of hemoglobin levels with mortality might differ between elderly and nonelderly hemodialysis patients

PubMed Central

Hanafusa, Norio; Nomura, Takanobu; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Nangaku, Masaomi

2014-01-01

Background The elderly hemodialyzed population is growing. However, little is known about the relationship between hemoglobin level and survival according to age. We investigated the effect of age on the relationship between hemoglobin and survival within the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) cohort. Methods We enrolled the entire Japan DOPPS phases 3 and 4 population. Patients were divided by the age of 75 years into two groups. Cox's proportional hazard model was used with hemoglobin at every 4 months treated as a time-dependent variable. The interaction of age and hemoglobin was analyzed. Results We included 3341 patients in the analyses. The primary outcome occurred in 567 patients during the median follow-up of 2.64 years. Hemoglobin of entire population was 10.3 ± 1.3 g/dL. The median of epoetin dose was 3000 IU/week. Interaction was found between ages stratified by the age of 75 years and hemoglobin values (P = 0.045) with use of Cox's proportional hazard model. The nonelderly population had poorer prognosis with hemoglobin <10 g/dL, while elderly population only with hemoglobin <9 g/dL. For both hemoglobin strata <9, ≥9 and <10 g/dL, interactions between age and hemoglobin were significant. Subgroup analysis indicated that interaction between age and Hb levels was observed only in the nondiabetic nephropathy group. Several sensitivity analyses demonstrated a similar trend with the original analyses and reinforced the robustness. Conclusions The elderly population might tolerate low hemoglobin levels. Our findings open the way for further investigation of individualized anemia management. PMID:25150218

Query Health: standards-based, cross-platform population health surveillance

PubMed Central

Klann, Jeffrey G; Buck, Michael D; Brown, Jeffrey; Hadley, Marc; Elmore, Richard; Weber, Griffin M; Murphy, Shawn N

2014-01-01

Objective Understanding population-level health trends is essential to effectively monitor and improve public health. The Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) Query Health initiative is a collaboration to develop a national architecture for distributed, population-level health queries across diverse clinical systems with disparate data models. Here we review Query Health activities, including a standards-based methodology, an open-source reference implementation, and three pilot projects. Materials and methods Query Health defined a standards-based approach for distributed population health queries, using an ontology based on the Quality Data Model and Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture, Health Quality Measures Format (HQMF) as the query language, the Query Envelope as the secure transport layer, and the Quality Reporting Document Architecture as the result language. Results We implemented this approach using Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) and hQuery for data analytics and PopMedNet for access control, secure query distribution, and response. We deployed the reference implementation at three pilot sites: two public health departments (New York City and Massachusetts) and one pilot designed to support Food and Drug Administration post-market safety surveillance activities. The pilots were successful, although improved cross-platform data normalization is needed. Discussions This initiative resulted in a standards-based methodology for population health queries, a reference implementation, and revision of the HQMF standard. It also informed future directions regarding interoperability and data access for ONC's Data Access Framework initiative. Conclusions Query Health was a test of the learning health system that supplied a functional methodology and reference implementation for distributed population health queries that has been validated at three sites. PMID:24699371

Query Health: standards-based, cross-platform population health surveillance.

PubMed

Klann, Jeffrey G; Buck, Michael D; Brown, Jeffrey; Hadley, Marc; Elmore, Richard; Weber, Griffin M; Murphy, Shawn N

2014-01-01

Understanding population-level health trends is essential to effectively monitor and improve public health. The Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) Query Health initiative is a collaboration to develop a national architecture for distributed, population-level health queries across diverse clinical systems with disparate data models. Here we review Query Health activities, including a standards-based methodology, an open-source reference implementation, and three pilot projects. Query Health defined a standards-based approach for distributed population health queries, using an ontology based on the Quality Data Model and Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture, Health Quality Measures Format (HQMF) as the query language, the Query Envelope as the secure transport layer, and the Quality Reporting Document Architecture as the result language. We implemented this approach using Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) and hQuery for data analytics and PopMedNet for access control, secure query distribution, and response. We deployed the reference implementation at three pilot sites: two public health departments (New York City and Massachusetts) and one pilot designed to support Food and Drug Administration post-market safety surveillance activities. The pilots were successful, although improved cross-platform data normalization is needed. This initiative resulted in a standards-based methodology for population health queries, a reference implementation, and revision of the HQMF standard. It also informed future directions regarding interoperability and data access for ONC's Data Access Framework initiative. Query Health was a test of the learning health system that supplied a functional methodology and reference implementation for distributed population health queries that has been validated at three sites. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cohort profile: the Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS), a multicentre cohort for socioeconomic inequalities in health monitoring.

PubMed

Caranci, Nicola; Di Girolamo, Chiara; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Spadea, Teresa; Pacelli, Barbara; Broccoli, Serena; Ballotari, Paola; Costa, Giuseppe; Zengarini, Nicolás; Agabiti, Nera; Bargagli, Anna Maria; Cacciani, Laura; Canova, Cristina; Cestari, Laura; Biggeri, Annibale; Grisotto, Laura; Terni, Gianna; Costanzo, Gianfranco; Mirisola, Concetta; Petrelli, Alessio

2018-04-20

The Italian Network of Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies (IN-LiMeS) is a system of integrated data on health outcomes, demographic and socioeconomic information, and represents a powerful tool to study health inequalities. IN-LiMeS is a multicentre and multipurpose pool of metropolitan population cohorts enrolled in nine Italian cities: Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Florence, Leghorn, Prato and Rome. Data come from record linkage of municipal population registries, the 2001 population census, mortality registers and hospital discharge archives. Depending on the source of enrolment, cohorts can be closed or open. The census-based closed cohort design includes subjects resident in any of the nine cities at the 2001 census day; 4 466 655 individuals were enrolled in 2001 in the nine closed cohorts. The open cohort design includes subjects resident in 2001 or subsequently registered by birth or immigration until the latest available follow-up (currently 31 December 2013). The open cohort design is available for Turin, Venice, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Prato and Rome. Detailed socioeconomic data are available for subjects enrolled in the census-based cohorts; information on demographic characteristics, education and citizenship is available from population registries. The first IN-LiMeS application was the study of differentials in mortality between immigrants and Italians. Either using a closed cohort design (nine cities) or an open one (Turin and Reggio Emilia), individuals from high migration pressure countries generally showed a lower mortality risk. However, a certain heterogeneity between the nine cities was noted, especially among men, and an excess mortality risk was reported for some macroareas of origin and specific causes of death. We are currently working on the linkage of the 2011 population census data, the expansion of geographical coverage and the implementation of the open design in all the participating cohorts. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Comparative population structure of Cynopterus fruit bats in peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand.

PubMed

Campbell, Polly; Schneider, Christopher J; Adnan, Adura M; Zubaid, Akbar; Kunz, Thomas H

2006-01-01

The extent to which response to environmental change is mediated by species-specific ecology is an important aspect of the population histories of tropical taxa. During the Pleistocene glacial cycles and associated sea level fluctuations, the Sunda region in Southeast Asia experienced concurrent changes in landmass area and the ratio of forest to open habitat, providing an ideal setting to test the expectation that habitat associations played an important role in determining species' response to the opportunity for geographic expansion. We used mitochondrial control region sequences and six microsatellite loci to compare the phylogeographic structure and demographic histories of four broadly sympatric species of Old World fruit bats in the genus, Cynopterus. Two forest-associated species and two open-habitat generalists were sampled along a latitudinal transect in Singapore, peninsular Malaysia, and southern Thailand. Contrary to expectations based on habitat associations, the geographic scale of population structure was not concordant across ecologically similar species. We found evidence for long and relatively stable demographic history in one forest and one open-habitat species, and inferred non-coincident demographic expansions in the second forest and open-habitat species. Thus, while these results indicate that Pleistocene climate change did not have a single effect on population structure across species, a correlation between habitat association and response to environmental change was supported in only two of four species. We conclude that interactions between multiple factors, including historical and contemporary environmental change, species-specific ecology and interspecific interactions, have shaped the recent evolutionary histories of Cynopterus fruit bats in Southeast Asia.

WIYN open cluster study. LIX. Radial velocity membership of the evolved population of the old open cluster NGC 6791

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tofflemire, Benjamin M.; Gosnell, Natalie M.; Mathieu, Robert D.

2014-10-01

The open cluster NGC 6791 has been the focus of much recent study due to its intriguing combination of old age and high metallicity (∼8 Gyr, [Fe/H] = +0.30), as well as its location within the Kepler field. As part of the WIYN Open Cluster Study, we present precise (σ = 0.38 km s{sup –1}) radial velocities for proper motion candidate members of NGC 6791 from Platais et al. Our survey, extending down to g' ∼ 16.8, is comprised of the evolved cluster population, including blue stragglers, giants, and horizontal branch stars. Of the 280 proper-motion-selected stars above our magnitudemore » limit, 93% have at least one radial velocity measurement and 79% have three measurements over the course of at least 200 days, sufficient for secure radial-velocity-determined membership of non-velocity-variable stars. The Platais et al. proper motion catalog includes 12 anomalous horizontal branch candidates blueward of the red clump, of which we find only 4 to be cluster members. Three fall slightly blueward of the red clump and the fourth is consistent with being a blue straggler. The cleaned color-magnitude diagram shows a richly populated red giant branch and a blue straggler population. Half of the blue stragglers are in binaries. From our radial velocity measurement distribution, we find the cluster's radial velocity dispersion to be σ {sub c} = 0.62 ± 0.10 km s{sup –1}. This corresponds to a dynamical mass of ∼4600 M {sub ☉}.« less

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Biosecurity and Open-Source Biology: The Promise and Peril of Distributed Synthetic Biological Technologies.

PubMed

Evans, Nicholas G; Selgelid, Michael J

2015-08-01

In this article, we raise ethical concerns about the potential misuse of open-source biology (OSB): biological research and development that progresses through an organisational model of radical openness, deskilling, and innovation. We compare this organisational structure to that of the open-source software model, and detail salient ethical implications of this model. We demonstrate that OSB, in virtue of its commitment to openness, may be resistant to governance attempts.

Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

2015-04-01

Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user-defined exposure and vulnerability. Without this function, many tools can only be used regionally and not at global or continental scale. It is becoming increasingly easy to use multiple packages for a single region and/or hazard to characterize the uncertainty in the risk, or use as checks for the sensitivities in the analysis. There is a potential for valuable synergy between existing software. A number of open source software packages could be combined to generate a multi-risk model with multiple views of a hazard. This extensive review has simply attempted to provide a platform for dialogue between all open source and open access software packages and to hopefully inspire collaboration between developers, given the great work done by all open access and open source developers.

The Solar-Type Hard-Binary Frequency and Distributions of Orbital Parameters in the Open Cluster M37

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Meibom, Soren; Barnes, Sydney A.; Mathieu, Robert D.

2014-02-01

Binary stars, and particularly the short-period ``hard'' binaries, govern the dynamical evolution of star clusters and determine the formation rates and mechanisms for exotic stars like blue stragglers and X-ray sources. Understanding the near-primordial hard-binary population of star clusters is of primary importance for dynamical models of star clusters, which have the potential to greatly advance our understanding of star cluster evolution. Yet the binary frequencies and distributions of binary orbital parameters (period, eccentricity, etc.) for young coeval stellar populations are poorly known, due to a lack of necessary observations. The young (~540 Myr) open cluster M37 hosts a rich binary population that can be used to empirically define these initial conditions. Importantly, this cluster has been the target of a comprehensive WIYN/Hydra radial-velocity (RV) survey, from which we have already identified a nearly complete sample of 329 solar-type (1.5 <=M [M_⊙] <=1.0) members in M37. Of these stars, 82 show significant RV variability, indicative of a binary companion. We propose to build upon these data with a multi-epoch RV survey using WIYN/Hydra to derive kinematic orbital solutions for these 82 binaries in M37. This project was granted time in 2013B and scheduled for later this year. We anticipate that about half of the detected binaries in M37 will acquire enough RV measurements (>=10) in 2013B to begin searching for orbital solutions. With this proposal and perhaps one additional semester we should achieve >=10 RV measurements for the remaining binaries.

Microwave background anisotropies in quasiopen inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

1999-10-01

Quasiopenness seems to be generic to multifield models of single-bubble open inflation. Instead of producing infinite open universes, these models actually produce an ensemble of very large but finite inflating islands. In this paper we study the possible constraints from CMB anisotropies on existing models of open inflation. The effect of supercurvature anisotropies combined with the quasiopenness of the inflating regions make some models incompatible with observations, and severely reduces the parameter space of others. Supernatural open inflation and the uncoupled two-field model seem to be ruled out due to these constraints for values of Ω0<~0.98. Others, such as the open hybrid inflation model with suitable parameters for the slow roll potential can be made compatible with observations.

Check, please. Don't expect after-dinner mints.

PubMed

1994-03-30

That's because when the check arrives, there'll be condoms instead. Cabbage and Condoms, a Thai restaurant overseen by the Bangkok-based Population and Development Association, serves both items. The eatery plans to open its first overseas outlet in Beijing next month. "We have been working with Chinese family-planning groups and chose Beijing because it is the capital of the world's most populous country," says PDA founding chairman Mechai Viravaidya, who is widely known as "Mr. Condom" for his promotion of the device to stem population growth and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Stressing public awareness over coercion represents the next wave of birth control in China. The country's population is projected to hit 1.65 billion stabilizing around 2044. "Our food is guaranteed not to cause pregnancy," quips Mechai. Cabbages and condoms plans to serve Chinese and Thai dishes and offer karaoke. Profits will go to promoting birth control and AIDS awareness. The opening is timely: the World Health Organization recently urged China to boost its efforts to fight the spread of AIDS. Officially the country has 1159 cases of the disease, but the real number may be a lot higher. The PDA also plans to open restaurants in Vietnam, Australia and the US. full text

No population genetic structure in a widespread aquatic songbird from the Neotropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Gutierrez-Pinto, Natalia; Davila, Nicolas; Chesser, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Neotropical lowland organisms often show marked population genetic structure, suggesting restricted migration among populations. However, most phylogeographic studies have focused on species inhabiting humid forest interior. Little attention has been devoted to the study of species with ecologies conducive to dispersal, such as those of more open and variable environments associated with watercourses. Using mtDNA sequences, we examined patterns of genetic variation in a widely distributed Neotropical songbird of aquatic environments, the Yellow-hooded Blackbird (Icteridae, Chrysomus icterocephalus). In contrast to many forest species, Yellow-hooded Blackbirds showed no detectable genetic structure across their range, which includes lowland populations on both sides of the Andes, much of northeastern South America, Amazonia, as well as a phenotypically distinct highland population in Colombia. A coalescent-based analysis of the species indicated that its effective population size has increased considerably, suggesting a range expansion. Our results support the hypothesis that species occurring in open habitats and tracking temporally dynamic environments should show increased dispersal propensities (hence gene flow) relative to species from closed and more stable environments. The phenotypic and behavioral variation among populations of our study species appears to have arisen recently and perhaps in the face of gene flow.

Distributions of microbial activities in deep subseafloor sediments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Hondt, Steven; Jorgensen, Bo Barker; Miller, D. Jay; Batzke, Anja; Blake, Ruth; Cragg, Barry A.; Cypionka, Heribert; Dickens, Gerald R.; Ferdelman, Timothy; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe;

Theory of Arachnid Prey Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stürzl, W.; Kempter, R.; van Hemmen, J. L.

2000-06-01

Sand scorpions and many other arachnids locate their prey through highly sensitive slit sensilla at the tips (tarsi) of their eight legs. This sensor array responds to vibrations with stimulus-locked action potentials encoding the target direction. We present a neuronal model to account for stimulus angle determination using a population of second-order neurons, each receiving excitatory input from one tarsus and inhibition from a triad opposite to it. The input opens a time window whose width determines a neuron's firing probability. Stochastic optimization is realized through tuning the balance between excitation and inhibition. The agreement with experiments on the sand scorpion is excellent.

System architecture for an advanced Canadian communications satellite demonstration mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takats, P.; Irani, S.

1992-03-01

An advanced communications satellite system that provides single hop interconnectivity and interworking for both a personal communications network and an advanced private business network in the Ka and Ku bands respectively, is presented. An overall network perspective is discussed that studies the interface of such an advanced satellite communication system to the terrestrial network in the context of the Open Systems Interconnection model. It is shown that this proposed satellite system can dynamically establish links and efficiently allocate the satellite resource amongst the user terminal population for a mix of data and voice traffic.

Ultrafast Coherent Dynamics of a Photonic Crystal All-Optical Switch.

PubMed

Colman, Pierre; Lunnemann, Per; Yu, Yi; Mørk, Jesper

2016-12-02

We present pump-probe measurements of an all-optical photonic crystal switch based on a nanocavity, resolving fast coherent temporal dynamics. The measurements demonstrate the importance of coherent effects typically neglected when considering nanocavity dynamics. In particular, we report the observation of an idler pulse and more than 10 dB parametric gain. The measurements are in good agreement with a theoretical model that ascribes the observation to oscillations of the free-carrier population in the nanocavity. The effect opens perspectives for the realization of new all-optical photonic crystal switches with unprecedented switching contrast.

Enhancing population pharmacokinetic modeling efficiency and quality using an integrated workflow.

PubMed

Schmidt, Henning; Radivojevic, Andrijana

2014-08-01

Population pharmacokinetic (popPK) analyses are at the core of Pharmacometrics and need to be performed regularly. Although these analyses are relatively standard, a large variability can be observed in both the time (efficiency) and the way they are performed (quality). Main reasons for this variability include the level of experience of a modeler, personal preferences and tools. This paper aims to examine how the process of popPK model building can be supported in order to increase its efficiency and quality. The presented approach to the conduct of popPK analyses is centered around three key components: (1) identification of most common and important popPK model features, (2) required information content and formatting of the data for modeling, and (3) methodology, workflow and workflow supporting tools. This approach has been used in several popPK modeling projects and a documented example is provided in the supplementary material. Efficiency of model building is improved by avoiding repetitive coding and other labor-intensive tasks and by putting the emphasis on a fit-for-purpose model. Quality is improved by ensuring that the workflow and tools are in alignment with a popPK modeling guidance which is established within an organization. The main conclusion of this paper is that workflow based approaches to popPK modeling are feasible and have significant potential to ameliorate its various aspects. However, the implementation of such an approach in a pharmacometric organization requires openness towards innovation and change-the key ingredient for evolution of integrative and quantitative drug development in the pharmaceutical industry.

Arctic sea ice melt leads to atmospheric new particle formation.

PubMed

Dall Osto, M; Beddows, D C S; Tunved, P; Krejci, R; Ström, J; Hansson, H-C; Yoon, Y J; Park, Ki-Tae; Becagli, S; Udisti, R; Onasch, T; O Dowd, C D; Simó, R; Harrison, Roy M

2017-06-12

Atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) and growth significantly influences climate by supplying new seeds for cloud condensation and brightness. Currently, there is a lack of understanding of whether and how marine biota emissions affect aerosol-cloud-climate interactions in the Arctic. Here, the aerosol population was categorised via cluster analysis of aerosol size distributions taken at Mt Zeppelin (Svalbard) during a 11 year record. The daily temporal occurrence of NPF events likely caused by nucleation in the polar marine boundary layer was quantified annually as 18%, with a peak of 51% during summer months. Air mass trajectory analysis and atmospheric nitrogen and sulphur tracers link these frequent nucleation events to biogenic precursors released by open water and melting sea ice regions. The occurrence of such events across a full decade was anti-correlated with sea ice extent. New particles originating from open water and open pack ice increased the cloud condensation nuclei concentration background by at least ca. 20%, supporting a marine biosphere-climate link through sea ice melt and low altitude clouds that may have contributed to accelerate Arctic warming. Our results prompt a better representation of biogenic aerosol sources in Arctic climate models.

openSputnik--a database to ESTablish comparative plant genomics using unsaturated sequence collections.

PubMed

Rudd, Stephen

2005-01-01

The public expressed sequence tag collections are continually being enriched with high-quality sequences that represent an ever-expanding range of taxonomically diverse plant species. While these sequence collections provide biased insight into the populations of expressed genes available within individual species and their associated tissues, the information is conceivably of wider relevance in a comparative context. When we consider the available expressed sequence tag (EST) collections of summer 2004, most of the major plant taxonomic clades are at least superficially represented. Investigation of the five million available plant ESTs provides a wealth of information that has applications in modelling the routes of plant genome evolution and the identification of lineage-specific genes and gene families. Over four million ESTs from over 50 distinct plant species have been collated within an EST analysis pipeline called openSputnik. The ESTs were resolved down into approximately one million unigene sequences. These have been annotated using orthology-based annotation transfer from reference plant genomes and using a variety of contemporary bioinformatics methods to assign peptide, structural and functional attributes. The openSputnik database is available at http://sputnik.btk.fi.

Effect of water availability in opening containers of breeding site on Aedes aegypti life cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokachil, Najir; Yusoff, Nuraini; Saaid, Alif; Appandi, Najwa; Harun, Farhana

2017-11-01

The distribution of rainfall is one of the factors which contribute to the development of Aedes aegypti life cycle. The fluctuation of rainfall might influence the acceleration of Aedes aegypti growth by providing sufficient breeding sites. In this research, the availability of water in an opening container of the breeding site is considered as a significant variable which affects the distinct stages structure in mosquito life cycle which egg, larva, pupa, and adult. A stage-structured Lefkovitch matrix model was used by considering the quantity of water contains in an opening container and life cycle of Aedes aegypti. The maximum depth of water in the container was also taken into account in order to find the time duration of mosquito life cycle to complete. We found that the maximum depth of water availability in mosquito breeding site influenced the abundance of the mosquito population. Hence, the containers are filled with sufficient water be able to stand from hot temperature for several days before drying out might continue to provide mosquito breeding site. In the future, it is recommended to consider other factors which affect the quantity of water in mosquito breeding sites such as heavy rain and wind blows.

Striatopallidal neurons control avoidance behavior in exploratory tasks.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Kimberly H; London, Tanisha D; Szczot, Ilona; Bocarsly, Miriam E; Friend, Danielle M; Nguyen, Katrina P; Mengesha, Marda M; Rubinstein, Marcelo; Alvarez, Veronica A; Kravitz, Alexxai V

2018-04-25

The dorsal striatum has been linked to decision-making under conflict, but the mechanism by which striatal neurons contribute to approach-avoidance conflicts remains unclear. We hypothesized that striatopallidal dopamine D2 receptor (D2R)-expressing neurons promote avoidance, and tested this hypothesis in two exploratory approach-avoidance conflict paradigms in mice: the elevated zero maze and open field. Genetic elimination of D2Rs on striatopallidal neurons (iMSNs), but not other neural populations, increased avoidance of the open areas in both tasks, in a manner that was dissociable from global changes in movement. Population calcium activity of dorsomedial iMSNs was disrupted in mice lacking D2Rs on iMSNs, suggesting that disrupted output of iMSNs contributes to heightened avoidance behavior. Consistently, artificial disruption of iMSN output with optogenetic stimulation heightened avoidance of open areas of these tasks, while inhibition of iMSN output reduced avoidance. We conclude that dorsomedial striatal iMSNs control approach-avoidance conflicts in exploratory tasks, and highlight this neural population as a potential target for reducing avoidance in anxiety disorders.

Prevalence of symptoms associated with temporomandibular disorders in Hong Kong Chinese.

PubMed

Pow, E H; Leung, K C; McMillan, A S

2001-01-01

To estimate the prevalence of self-reported symptoms associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and treatment-seeking in adult Chinese in Hong Kong. A telephone survey technique was used to identify 1,526 randomly selected Cantonese-speaking individuals aged 18 years or over. Standard questions were asked about joint and jaw muscle pain, jaw opening, and joint sounds. In addition, questions on tooth grinding and clenching, sleep patterns, and treatment-seeking behavior were posed. Jaw pain was reported by 33% of the population. Only 5% of them had frequent pain, with two thirds of this subgroup having moderate to severe symptoms. The prevalence of frequent problems with jaw opening and joint clicking was 0.3% and 1.8%, respectively. There were no gender-related differences in the reporting of TMD symptoms or related conditions. One percent of the Hong Kong Chinese population had TMD-related jaw pain that was of moderate or severe intensity and occurred frequently; 0.6% of the population had sought treatment for jaw pain, impaired jaw opening, or joint clicking that occurred often in the previous year.

Development of Secondary Woodland in Oak Wood Pastures Reduces the Richness of Rare Epiphytic Lichens

PubMed Central

Paltto, Heidi; Nordberg, Anna; Nordén, Björn; Snäll, Tord

2011-01-01

Wooded pastures with ancient trees were formerly abundant throughout Europe, but during the last century, grazing has largely been abandoned often resulting in dense forests. Ancient trees constitute habitat for many declining and threatened species, but the effects of secondary woodland on the biodiversity associated with these trees are largely unknown. We tested for difference in species richness, occurrence, and abundance of a set of nationally and regionally red-listed epiphytic lichens between ancient oaks located in secondary woodland and ancient oaks located in open conditions. We refined the test of the effect of secondary woodland by also including other explanatory variables. Species occurrence and abundance were modelled jointly using overdispersed zero-inflated Poisson models. The richness of the red-listed lichens on ancient oaks in secondary woodland was half of that compared with oaks growing in open conditions. The species-level analyses revealed that this was mainly the result of lower occupancy of two of the study species. The tree-level abundance of one species was also lower in secondary woodland. Potential explanations for this pattern are that the study lichens are adapted to desiccating conditions enhancing their population persistence by low competition or that open, windy conditions enhance their colonisation rate. This means that the development of secondary woodland is a threat to red-listed epiphytic lichens. We therefore suggest that woody vegetation is cleared and grazing resumed in abandoned oak pastures. Importantly, this will also benefit the vitality of the oaks. PMID:21961041

Outcome comparison between thoracic endovascular and open repair for type B aortic dissection: A population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Chou, Hsiao-Ping; Chang, Hsiao-Ting; Chen, Chun-Ku; Shih, Chun-Che; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, I-Ming; Lee, Ming-Hsun; Sheu, Ming-Huei; Wu, Mei-Han; Chang, Cheng-Yen

2015-04-01

Management of diseases of the descending thoracic aorta is trending from open surgery toward thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR), because TEVAR is reportedly associated with less perioperative mortality. However, comparisons between TEVAR and open surgery, adjusting for patient comorbidities, have not been well studied. In this nationwide population-based study, we compared the outcomes between TEVAR and open surgery in type B aortic dissection. From 2003 to 2009, data on patients with type B aortic dissection who underwent either open surgery or TEVAR were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival, length of stay, and complications were compared between TEVAR and open repair. To minimize possible bias, we performed an additional analysis after matching patients by age, sex, and propensity score. A total of 1661 patients were identified, of whom 1542 underwent open repair and 119 TEVAR. Patients in the TEVAR group were older (63.0 ± 15.4 years vs. 58.1 ± 13.1 years; p = 0.001), included more males, and had more preoperative comorbidities. Thirty-day mortality in the TEVAR group was significantly lower than that in the open repair group (4.2% vs. 17.8%; p < 0.001). The midterm survival rates in the unmatched cohort between the open surgery and TEVAR groups at 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, and 4 years were 76%, 73%, 71%, and 68% vs. 92%, 86%, 82%, and 79%, respectively. The length of stay in the TEVAR group was shorter than that in the open repair group (p = 0.001). The TEVAR group had less respiratory failure (p = 0.022) and fewer wound complications than the open repair group (p = 0.008). The matched cohort showed similar results. TEVAR for type B aortic dissection repair has less perioperative mortality, a shorter length of hospitalization, a higher midterm survival rate, less postoperative respiratory failure, and fewer wound complications than open surgery. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

Non-Markovianity in the optimal control of an open quantum system described by hierarchical equations of motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangaud, E.; Puthumpally-Joseph, R.; Sugny, D.; Meier, C.; Atabek, O.; Desouter-Lecomte, M.

2018-04-01

Optimal control theory is implemented with fully converged hierarchical equations of motion (HEOM) describing the time evolution of an open system density matrix strongly coupled to the bath in a spin-boson model. The populations of the two-level sub-system are taken as control objectives; namely, their revivals or exchange when switching off the field. We, in parallel, analyze how the optimal electric field consequently modifies the information back flow from the environment through different non-Markovian witnesses. Although the control field has a dipole interaction with the central sub-system only, its indirect influence on the bath collective mode dynamics is probed through HEOM auxiliary matrices, revealing a strong correlation between control and dissipation during a non-Markovian process. A heterojunction is taken as an illustrative example for modeling in a realistic way the two-level sub-system parameters and its spectral density function leading to a non-perturbative strong coupling regime with the bath. Although, due to strong system-bath couplings, control performances remain rather modest, the most important result is a noticeable increase of the non-Markovian bath response induced by the optimally driven processes.

Microbubbles and Blood Brain Barrier Opening: A Numerical Study on Acoustic Emissions and Wall Stress Predictions

PubMed Central

Goertz, David E.; Hynynen, Kullervo

2015-01-01

Focused ultrasound with microbubbles is an emerging technique for blood brain barrier (BBB) opening. Here, a comprehensive theoretical model of a bubble-fluid-vessel system has been developed which accounts for the bubble’s non-spherical oscillations inside a microvessel, and its resulting acoustic emissions. Numerical simulations of unbound and confined encapsulated bubbles were performed to evaluate the effect of the vessel wall on acoustic emissions and vessel wall stresses. Using a Marmottant shell model, the normalized second harmonic to fundamental emissions first decreased as a function of pressure (>50 kPa) until reaching a minima ("transition point") at which point they increased. The transition point of unbound compared to confined bubble populations occurred at different pressures and was associated with an accompanying increase in shear and circumferential wall stresses. As the wall stresses depend on the bubble to vessel wall distance, the stresses were evaluated for bubbles with their wall at a constant distance to a flat wall. As a result, the wall stresses were bubble size and frequency dependent and the peak stress values induced by bubbles larger than resonance remained constant versus frequency at a constant mechanical index. PMID:25546853

Synthetic Biology Open Language (SBOL) Version 2.0.0.

PubMed

Bartley, Bryan; Beal, Jacob; Clancy, Kevin; Misirli, Goksel; Roehner, Nicholas; Oberortner, Ernst; Pocock, Matthew; Bissell, Michael; Madsen, Curtis; Nguyen, Tramy; Zhang, Zhen; Gennari, John H; Myers, Chris; Wipat, Anil; Sauro, Herbert

2015-09-04

Synthetic biology builds upon the techniques and successes of genetics, molecular biology, and metabolic engineering by applying engineering principles to the design of biological systems. The field still faces substantial challenges, including long development times, high rates of failure, and poor reproducibility. One method to ameliorate these problems would be to improve the exchange of information about designed systems between laboratories. The Synthetic Biology Open Language (SBOL) has been developed as a standard to support the specification and exchange of biological design information in synthetic biology, filling a need not satisfied by other pre-existing standards. This document details version 2.0 of SBOL, introducing a standardized format for the electronic exchange of information on the structural and functional aspects of biological designs. The standard has been designed to support the explicit and unambiguous description of biological designs by means of a well defined data model. The standard also includes rules and best practices on how to use this data model and populate it with relevant design details. The publication of this specification is intended to make these capabilities more widely accessible to potential developers and users in the synthetic biology community and beyond.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Malone, D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90-125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12-16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the "escapement" due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90?125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12?16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the ?escapement? due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.

Conformation and Dynamics of Human Urotensin II and Urotensin Related Peptide in Aqueous Solution.

PubMed

Haensele, Elke; Mele, Nawel; Miljak, Marija; Read, Christopher M; Whitley, David C; Banting, Lee; Delépée, Carla; Sopkova-de Oliveira Santos, Jana; Lepailleur, Alban; Bureau, Ronan; Essex, Jonathan W; Clark, Timothy

2017-02-27

Conformation and dynamics of the vasoconstrictive peptides human urotensin II (UII) and urotensin related peptide (URP) have been investigated by both unrestrained and enhanced-sampling molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations and NMR spectroscopy. These peptides are natural ligands of the G-protein coupled urotensin II receptor (UTR) and have been linked to mammalian pathophysiology. UII and URP cannot be characterized by a single structure but exist as an equilibrium of two main classes of ring conformations, open and folded, with rapidly interchanging subtypes. The open states are characterized by turns of various types centered at K 8 Y 9 or F 6 W 7 predominantly with no or only sparsely populated transannular hydrogen bonds. The folded conformations show multiple turns stabilized by highly populated transannular hydrogen bonds comprising centers F 6 W 7 K 8 or W 7 K 8 Y 9 . Some of these conformations have not been characterized previously. The equilibrium populations that are experimentally difficult to access were estimated by replica-exchange MD simulations and validated by comparison of experimental NMR data with chemical shifts calculated with density-functional theory. UII exhibits approximately 72% open:28% folded conformations in aqueous solution. URP shows very similar ring conformations as UII but differs in an open:folded equilibrium shifted further toward open conformations (86:14) possibly arising from the absence of folded N-terminal tail-ring interaction. The results suggest that the different biological effects of UII and URP are not caused by differences in ring conformations but rather by different interactions with UTR.

A feasibility study on porting the community land model onto accelerators using OpenACC

DOE PAGES

Wang, Dali; Wu, Wei; Winkler, Frank; ...

2014-01-01

As environmental models (such as Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), Parallel Reactive Flow and Transport Model (PFLOTRAN), Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), etc.) became more and more complicated, we are facing enormous challenges regarding to porting those applications onto hybrid computing architecture. OpenACC appears as a very promising technology, therefore, we have conducted a feasibility analysis on porting the Community Land Model (CLM), a terrestrial ecosystem model within the Community Earth System Models (CESM)). Specifically, we used automatic function testing platform to extract a small computing kernel out of CLM, then we apply this kernel into the actually CLM dataflowmore » procedure, and investigate the strategy of data parallelization and the benefit of data movement provided by current implementation of OpenACC. Even it is a non-intensive kernel, on a single 16-core computing node, the performance (based on the actual computation time using one GPU) of OpenACC implementation is 2.3 time faster than that of OpenMP implementation using single OpenMP thread, but it is 2.8 times slower than the performance of OpenMP implementation using 16 threads. On multiple nodes, MPI_OpenACC implementation demonstrated very good scalability on up to 128 GPUs on 128 computing nodes. This study also provides useful information for us to look into the potential benefits of “deep copy” capability and “routine” feature of OpenACC standards. In conclusion, we believe that our experience on the environmental model, CLM, can be beneficial to many other scientific research programs who are interested to porting their large scale scientific code using OpenACC onto high-end computers, empowered by hybrid computing architecture.« less

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife-vehicle collisions elsewhere.

Large-Scale Model-Based Assessment of Deer-Vehicle Collision Risk

PubMed Central

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer–vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on 74,000 deer–vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer–vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer–vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer–vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment–deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new “deer–vehicle collision index” for deer management. We show that the risk of deer–vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer–vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer–vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife–vehicle collisions elsewhere. PMID:22359535

Prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma in an urban south Indian population and comparison with a rural population. The Chennai Glaucoma Study.

PubMed

Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Baskaran, M; Arvind, Hemamalini; Raju, Prema; Ramesh, S Ve; Kumaramanickavel, Govindasamy; McCarty, Catherine

2008-04-01

To estimate the prevalence and risk factors of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in an urban population and compare the same with that of our published rural population data in southern India. Population-based cross-sectional study. Four thousand eight hundred subjects 40 years or older were selected using a multistage random cluster sampling procedure in Chennai city. Three thousand eight hundred fifty (80.2%) subjects underwent a complete ophthalmic examination, including applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, pachymetry, optic disc photography, and automated perimetry. Glaucoma was diagnosed using the International Society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology Classification. The distribution of intraocular pressure (IOP) and vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR) was obtained from the right eye of the 2532 subjects with normal suprathreshold visual fields. Mean IOP was 16.17+/-3.74 mmHg (97.5th and 99.5th percentiles, 24 mmHg and 30 mmHg). The mean VCDR was 0.43+/-0.17 (97.5th and 99.5th percentiles, 0.7 and 0.8). One hundred thirty-five (64 men, 71 women) subjects had POAG (3.51%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.04-4.0). Primary open-angle glaucoma subjects (58.4+/-11.3 years) were older (P<0.0001) than the study population (54.8+/-10.6 years). One hundred twenty-seven (94%) subjects were diagnosed to have POAG for the first time. Two subjects (1.5%) were bilaterally blind, and 3 (3.3%) were unilaterally blind due to POAG. The urban population prevalence was more than that of the rural population (1.62%; 95% CI, 1.4%-1.8%; P<0.0001). In both populations, increasing IOP (per millimeter of mercury) and older age were associated with the disease. There was no association with gender, myopia, systemic hypertension, diabetes, or central corneal thickness. The prevalence of POAG in a > or =40-year-old south Indian urban population was 3.51%, higher than that of the rural population. The prevalence increased with age, and >90% were not aware of the disease.

PyPedal, an open source software package for pedigree analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The open source software package PyPedal (http://pypedal.sourceforge.net/) was first released in 2002, and provided users with a set of simple tools for manipulating pedigrees. Its flexibility has been demonstrated by its used in a number of settings for large and small populations. After substantia...

National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN): A Historical Perspective and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ambe-Uva, Terhemba Nom

2007-01-01

Distance education has become an important policy option for educational planners in developing countries. In the context of Nigeria, increasing population, growing national demand for education, dwindling financial resources, increasing fiscal constraints, and therefore narrowing of access to education led to the emergence of Open University in…

Leadership for 2000. Management Report 1989-90/1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roueche, John E.

Of all challenges facing open-door community colleges, none is more important than the need to renew and improve teaching quality in order to accommodate increasingly diversified student populations. Several policies have been particularly helpful to open-door institutions in improving student retention and achievement, including the following:…

Experimental and modelling of Arthrospira platensis cultivation in open raceway ponds.

PubMed

Ranganathan, Panneerselvam; Amal, J C; Savithri, S; Haridas, Ajith

2017-10-01

In this study, the growth of Arthrospira platensis was studied in an open raceway pond. Furthermore, dynamic model for algae growth and CFD modelling of hydrodynamics in open raceway pond were developed. The dynamic behaviour of the algal system was developed by solving mass balance equations of various components, considering light intensity and gas-liquid mass transfer. A CFD modelling of the hydrodynamics of open raceway pond was developed by solving mass and momentum balance equations of the liquid medium. The prediction of algae concentration from the dynamic model was compared with the experimental data. The hydrodynamic behaviour of the open raceway pond was compared with the literature data for model validation. The model predictions match the experimental findings. Furthermore, the hydrodynamic behaviour and residence time distribution in our small raceway pond were predicted. These models can serve as a tool to assess the pond performance criteria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design

PubMed Central

Ai, A. L.; Ladd, K. L.; Peterson, C.; Cook, C. A.; Shearer, M.; Koenig, H. G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. Design and Methods: Analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. Results: Predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. Implications: The influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion–health relations. PMID:20634280

How is palliative care understood in the context of dementia? Results from a massive open online course

PubMed Central

McInerney, Fran; Doherty, Kathleen; Bindoff, Aidan; Robinson, Andrew; Vickers, James

2017-01-01

Background: A palliative approach to the care of people with dementia has been advocated, albeit from an emergent evidence base. The person-centred philosophy of palliative care resonates with the often lengthy trajectory and heavy symptom burden of this terminal condition. Aim: To explore participants’ understanding of the concept of palliative care in the context of dementia. The participant population took an online course in dementia. Design: The participant population took a massive open online course on ‘Understanding Dementia’ and posted answers to the question: ‘palliative care means …’ We extracted these postings and analysed them via the dual methods of topic modelling analysis and thematic analysis. Setting/participants: A total of 1330 participants from three recent iterations of the Understanding Dementia Massive Open Online Course consented to their posts being used. Participants included those caring formally or informally for someone living with dementia as well as those with a general interest in dementia Results: Participants were found to have a general awareness of palliative care, but saw it primarily as terminal care, focused around the event of death and specialist in nature. Comfort was equated with pain management only. Respondents rarely overtly linked palliative care to dementia. Conclusions: A general lack of palliative care literacy, particularly with respect to dementia, was demonstrated by participants. Implications for dementia care consumers seeking palliative care and support include recognition of the likely lack of awareness of the relevance of palliative care to dementia. Future research could access online participants more directly about their understandings/experiences of the relationship between palliative care and dementia. PMID:29235386

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

Archetype-based conversion of EHR content models: pilot experience with a regional EHR system.

PubMed

Chen, Rong; Klein, Gunnar O; Sundvall, Erik; Karlsson, Daniel; Ahlfeldt, Hans

2009-07-01

Exchange of Electronic Health Record (EHR) data between systems from different suppliers is a major challenge. EHR communication based on archetype methodology has been developed by openEHR and CEN/ISO. The experience of using archetypes in deployed EHR systems is quite limited today. Currently deployed EHR systems with large user bases have their own proprietary way of representing clinical content using various models. This study was designed to investigate the feasibility of representing EHR content models from a regional EHR system as openEHR archetypes and inversely to convert archetypes to the proprietary format. The openEHR EHR Reference Model (RM) and Archetype Model (AM) specifications were used. The template model of the Cambio COSMIC, a regional EHR product from Sweden, was analyzed and compared to the openEHR RM and AM. This study was focused on the convertibility of the EHR semantic models. A semantic mapping between the openEHR RM/AM and the COSMIC template model was produced and used as the basis for developing prototype software that performs automated bi-directional conversion between openEHR archetypes and COSMIC templates. Automated bi-directional conversion between openEHR archetype format and COSMIC template format has been achieved. Several archetypes from the openEHR Clinical Knowledge Repository have been imported into COSMIC, preserving most of the structural and terminology related constraints. COSMIC templates from a large regional installation were successfully converted into the openEHR archetype format. The conversion from the COSMIC templates into archetype format preserves nearly all structural and semantic definitions of the original content models. A strategy of gradually adding archetype support to legacy EHR systems was formulated in order to allow sharing of clinical content models defined using different formats. The openEHR RM and AM are expressive enough to represent the existing clinical content models from the template based EHR system tested and legacy content models can automatically be converted to archetype format for sharing of knowledge. With some limitations, internationally available archetypes could be converted to the legacy EHR models. Archetype support can be added to legacy EHR systems in an incremental way allowing a migration path to interoperability based on standards.

Cost comparison of laparoscopic colectomy versus open colectomy in colon cancer.

PubMed

Fitch, Kathryn; Bochner, Andrew; Keller, Deborah S

2017-07-01

Laparoscopic colectomy has been shown to be safe, oncologically comparable, and clinically beneficial over open colectomy for colon cancer, but utilization remains low. Objectives To evaluate the cost of laparoscopic colectomy vs open colectomy for colon cancer. The authors conducted a retrospective claims data analysis using the 2012 and 2013 Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounter Database. The denominator population consisted of individuals who had commercial insurance coverage in all months of 2012 and >1 month in 2013 and pharmacy coverage throughout eligibility. The study population included individuals aged 18-64 years who were identified with colon cancer in 2013 and underwent an elective inpatient open colectomy or laparoscopic colectomy between January and November 2013. The cost and re-admission rate of open vs laparoscopic colectomy were compared after risk, adjusting for comorbidities, demographics, and geographic region. During the study period, 1299 elective inpatient colon cancer colectomies were performed (open, n = 558; laparoscopic, n = 741). After risk adjustment, the laparoscopic vs open group was shown to have lower re-admission rates (6.61 and 10.93 per 100 cases, respectively, p = .0165), lower average re-admission costs ($1676 and $3151, respectively, p = .0309), and lower 30-day post-discharge healthcare utilization costs ($4842 and $7121, respectively, p = .0047). Average allowed cost for the combined inpatient and 30-day post-discharge period was lower for laparoscopic vs open colectomy cases ($36,395 and $44,226, respectively, p < .001). The cost of laparoscopic colectomy was found to be statistically significantly less than that of open colectomy in patients undergoing elective surgery for colon cancer.

Providing Higher Education to Socially Disadvantaged Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

1989-01-01

An examination of the philosophy and implementation of two special programs offered by the Open University of Israel to socially and educationally disadvantaged populations focuses on whether both values of quality and equity can be achieved in higher education. (Author/MSE)

Enrichment in a stoichiometric model of two producers and one consumer.

PubMed

Lin, Laurence Hao-Ran; Peckham, Bruce B; Stech, Harlan W; Pastor, John

2012-01-01

We consider a stoichiometric population model of two producers and one consumer. Stoichiometry can be thought of as the tracking of food quality in addition to food quantity. Our model assumes a reduced rate of conversion of biomass from producer to consumer when food quality is low. The model is open for carbon but closed for nutrient. The introduction of the second producer, which competes with the first, leads to new equilibria, new limit cycles, and new bifurcations. The focus of this paper is on the bifurcations which are the result of enrichment. The primary parameters we vary are the growth rates of both producers. Secondary variable parameters are the total nutrients in the system, and the producer nutrient uptake rates. The possible equilibria are: no-life, one-producer, coexistence of both producers, the consumer coexisting with either producer, and the consumer coexisting with both producers. We observe limit cycles in the latter three coexistence combinations. Bifurcation diagrams along with corresponding representative time series summarize the behaviours observed for this model.

Effects of open drainage ditch design on bacterial and fungal communities of cold waterlogged paddy soils

PubMed Central

Qiu, Shanlian; Wang, MK; Wang, Fei; Chen, Jichen; Li, Xiaoyan; Li, Qinghua; Lin, Cheng; Lin, Xinjian

2013-01-01

A field experiment established in 1980 was conducted to evaluate the effects of open drainage ditch applied for water removal on bacterial and fungal communities of cold waterlogged paddy soils in 2011. In this experiment, traditional plate counting and temperature gradient gel electrophoresis were employed to characterize the abundance and diversity of soil bacterial and fungal communities. Four different distances from the open drainage ditch, 5, 15, 25 and 75 m with different degrees of drainage were designed for this study. Maximum populations of culturable aerobic bacteria and fungi were at 15-m distance while minimum populations were at 75-m distance. Significant differences (p < 0.05) in fungal populations were observed at all distances from open drainage ditch. The highest diversity of the bacterial community was found at a distance of 25 m, while that of the fungal community was observed at a distance of 5 m. Sequencing of excised TGGE bands indicated that the dominant bacteria at 75-m distance belonged to anaerobic or microaerobic bacteria. Relationships between microbial characteristics and soil physicochemical properties indicated that soil pH and available nitrogen contents were key factors controlling the abundance of culturable aerobic bacteria and fungi, while soil water capacity also affected the diversity of fungal community. These findings can provide the references for better design and advanced management of the drainage ditches in cold waterlogged paddy soils. PMID:24516468

DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE-OPEN COMPLIANT PROCESS MODELING COMPONENTS IN MICROSOFT .NET

EPA Science Inventory

The CAPE-OPEN middleware standards were created to allow process modeling components (PMCs) developed by third parties to be used in any process modeling environment (PME) utilizing these standards. The CAPE-OPEN middleware specifications were based upon both Microsoft's Compone...

The emerging trend of non-operative treatment in paediatric type I open forearm fractures.

PubMed

Zhang, H; Fanelli, M; Adams, C; Graham, J; Seeley, M

2017-08-01

Open fractures are considered an orthopaedic emergency and are generally an indication for operative debridement. Recent studies have questioned this approach for the management of Gustilo-Anderson Type I open fractures in the paediatric population. This meta-analysis studies the non-operative management of Type I open paediatric forearm fractures. An Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed database literature search was performed for studies that involved a quantified number of Gustilo-Anderson Type I open forearm fractures in the paediatric population, which were treated without operative intervention. A fixed-effect meta-analysis, weighting each study based on the number of patients, and a pooled estimate of infection risk (with 95% confidence interval (CI)) was performed. The search results yielded five studies that were eligible for inclusion. No included patients had operative debridement and all were treated with antibiotics. The number of patients in each study ranged from 3 to 45, with a total of 127 paediatric patients in the meta-analysis. The infection rate was 0% for all patients included. The meta-analysis estimated a pooled infection risk of 0% (95% CI 0 to 2.9). The five included studies had a total of 127 patients with no cases of infection after non-operative management of Type I open paediatric forearm fractures. The infection rate of Type I fractures among operatively managed patients is 1.9%. The trend in literature towards non-operative treatment of paediatric Type I open fractures holds true in this meta-analysis.

An open ecosystem engagement strategy through the lens of global food safety

PubMed Central

Stacey, Paul; Fons, Garin; Bernardo, Theresa M

2015-01-01

The Global Food Safety Partnership (GFSP) is a public/private partnership established through the World Bank to improve food safety systems through a globally coordinated and locally-driven approach. This concept paper aims to establish a framework to help GFSP fully leverage the potential of open models. In preparing this paper the authors spoke to many different GFSP stakeholders who asked questions about open models such as: what is it?what’s in it for me?why use an open rather than a proprietary model?how will open models generate equivalent or greater sustainable revenue streams compared to the current “traditional” approaches?  This last question came up many times with assertions that traditional service providers need to see opportunity for equivalent or greater revenue dollars before they will buy-in. This paper identifies open value propositions for GFSP stakeholders and proposes a framework for creating and structuring that value. Open Educational Resources (OER) were the primary open practice GFSP partners spoke to us about, as they provide a logical entry point for collaboration. Going forward, funders should consider requiring that educational resources and concomitant data resulting from their sponsorship should be open, as a public good. There are, however, many other forms of open practice that bring value to the GFSP. Nine different open strategies and tactics (Appendix A) are described, including: open content (including OER and open courseware), open data, open access (research), open government, open source software, open standards, open policy, open licensing and open hardware. It is recommended that all stakeholders proactively pursue "openness" as an operating principle. This paper presents an overall GFSP Open Ecosystem Engagement Strategy within which specific local case examples can be situated. Two different case examples, China and Colombia, are presented to show both project-based and crowd-sourced, direct-to-public paths through this ecosystem. PMID:26213614

Stimulated Raman adiabatic passage in a three-level superconducting circuit

PubMed Central

Kumar, K. S.; Vepsäläinen, A.; Danilin, S.; Paraoanu, G. S.

2016-01-01

The adiabatic manipulation of quantum states is a powerful technique that opened up new directions in quantum engineering—enabling tests of fundamental concepts such as geometrical phases and topological transitions, and holding the promise of alternative models of quantum computation. Here we benchmark the stimulated Raman adiabatic passage for circuit quantum electrodynamics by employing the first three levels of a transmon qubit. In this ladder configuration, we demonstrate a population transfer efficiency >80% between the ground state and the second excited state using two adiabatic Gaussian-shaped control microwave pulses. By doing quantum tomography at successive moments during the Raman pulses, we investigate the transfer of the population in time domain. Furthermore, we show that this protocol can be reversed by applying a third adiabatic pulse, we study a hybrid nondiabatic–adiabatic sequence, and we present experimental results for a quasi-degenerate intermediate level. PMID:26902454

Stimulated Raman adiabatic passage in a three-level superconducting circuit.

PubMed

Kumar, K S; Vepsäläinen, A; Danilin, S; Paraoanu, G S

2016-02-23

The adiabatic manipulation of quantum states is a powerful technique that opened up new directions in quantum engineering--enabling tests of fundamental concepts such as geometrical phases and topological transitions, and holding the promise of alternative models of quantum computation. Here we benchmark the stimulated Raman adiabatic passage for circuit quantum electrodynamics by employing the first three levels of a transmon qubit. In this ladder configuration, we demonstrate a population transfer efficiency >80% between the ground state and the second excited state using two adiabatic Gaussian-shaped control microwave pulses. By doing quantum tomography at successive moments during the Raman pulses, we investigate the transfer of the population in time domain. Furthermore, we show that this protocol can be reversed by applying a third adiabatic pulse, we study a hybrid nondiabatic-adiabatic sequence, and we present experimental results for a quasi-degenerate intermediate level.

Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods

PubMed Central

Ottino-Loffler, Bertrand; Scott, Jacob G

2017-01-01

The incubation period for typhoid, polio, measles, leukemia and many other diseases follows a right-skewed, approximately lognormal distribution. Although this pattern was discovered more than sixty years ago, it remains an open question to explain its ubiquity. Here, we propose an explanation based on evolutionary dynamics on graphs. For simple models of a mutant or pathogen invading a network-structured population of healthy cells, we show that skewed distributions of incubation periods emerge for a wide range of assumptions about invader fitness, competition dynamics, and network structure. The skewness stems from stochastic mechanisms associated with two classic problems in probability theory: the coupon collector and the random walk. Unlike previous explanations that rely crucially on heterogeneity, our results hold even for homogeneous populations. Thus, we predict that two equally healthy individuals subjected to equal doses of equally pathogenic agents may, by chance alone, show remarkably different time courses of disease. PMID:29266000

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.