Sample records for operator decision processes

  1. A conceptual framework for automating the operational and strategic decision-making process in the health care delivery system.

    PubMed

    Ruohonen, Toni; Ennejmy, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Making reliable and justified operational and strategic decisions is a really challenging task in the health care domain. So far, the decisions have been made based on the experience of managers and staff, or they are evaluated with traditional methods, using inadequate data. As a result of this kind of decision-making process, attempts to improve operations usually have failed or led to only local improvements. Health care organizations have a lot of operational data, in addition to clinical data, which is the key element for making reliable and justified decisions. However, it is progressively problematic to access it and make usage of it. In this paper we discuss about the possibilities how to exploit operational data in the most efficient way in the decision-making process. We'll share our future visions and propose a conceptual framework for automating the decision-making process.

  2. Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control.

    PubMed

    Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Jan Maarten; Heerkens, Hans

    2016-03-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive activities on the decision ladder: sensemaking, option evaluation and action planning. The relationship between this structure and decision quality was measured. A simulated task was staged, based on which think-aloud protocols were obtained. Results show that the general decision process structure resembles the structure of experts working under routine conditions, in terms of the general structure of the macrocognitive activities, and the rule-based approach used to identify options and actions. Surprisingly, high quality of decision outcomes was found to relate to the use of rule-based strategies. This implies that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing. Practitioner Summary: We examined the macrocognitive structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during a simulated unfamiliar disruption in relation to decision quality. Results suggest that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing.

  3. Experimenting with C2 Applications and Federated Infrastructures for Integrated Full-Spectrum Operational Environments in Support of Collaborative Planning and Interoperable Execution

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-06-01

    Situation Understanding) Common Operational Pictures Planning & Decision Support Capabilities Message & Order Processing Common Operational...Pictures Planning & Decision Support Capabilities Message & Order Processing Common Languages & Data Models Modeling & Simulation Domain

  4. Science Operations Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Squibb, Gael F.

    1984-10-01

    The operation teams for the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) included scientists from the IRAS International Science Team. The scientific decisions on an hour-to-hour basis, as well as the long-term strategic decisions, were made by science team members. The IRAS scientists were involved in the analysis of the instrument performance, the analysis of the quality of the data, the decision to reacquire data that was contaminated by radiation effects, the strategy for acquiring the survey data, and the process for using the telescope for additional observations, as well as the processing decisions required to ensure the publication of the final scientific products by end of flight operations plus one year. Early in the project, two science team members were selected to be responsible for the scientific operational decisions. One, located at the operations control center in England, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the satellite operations; the other, located at the scientific processing center in Pasadena, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the processing. These science team members were then responsible for approving the design and test of the tools to support their responsibilities and then, after launch, for using these tools in making their decisions. The ability of the project to generate the final science data products one year after the end of flight operations is due in a large measure to the active participation of the science team members in the operations. This paper presents a summary of the operational experiences gained from this scientific involvement.

  5. Application of Domain Knowledge to Software Quality Assurance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wild, Christian W.

    1997-01-01

    This work focused on capturing, using, and evolving a qualitative decision support structure across the life cycle of a project. The particular application of this study was towards business process reengineering and the representation of the business process in a set of Business Rules (BR). In this work, we defined a decision model which captured the qualitative decision deliberation process. It represented arguments both for and against proposed alternatives to a problem. It was felt that the subjective nature of many critical business policy decisions required a qualitative modeling approach similar to that of Lee and Mylopoulos. While previous work was limited almost exclusively to the decision capture phase, which occurs early in the project life cycle, we investigated the use of such a model during the later stages as well. One of our significant developments was the use of the decision model during the operational phase of a project. By operational phase, we mean the phase in which the system or set of policies which were earlier decided are deployed and put into practice. By making the decision model available to operational decision makers, they would have access to the arguments pro and con for a variety of actions and can thus make a more informed decision which balances the often conflicting criteria by which the value of action is measured. We also developed the concept of a 'monitored decision' in which metrics of performance were identified during the decision making process and used to evaluate the quality of that decision. It is important to monitor those decision which seem at highest risk of not meeting their stated objectives. Operational decisions are also potentially high risk decisions. Finally, we investigated the use of performance metrics for monitored decisions and audit logs of operational decisions in order to feed an evolutionary phase of the the life cycle. During evolution, decisions are revisisted, assumptions verified or refuted, and possible reassessments resulting in new policy are made. In this regard we implemented a machine learning algorithm which automatically defined business rules based on expert assessment of the quality of operational decisions as recorded during deployment.

  6. The Extent to Which Principals' Leadership and Decision-Making Processes Exerts Influence on the Operations of Inclusion Classrooms Including Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder at the Elementary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bermani, Michelle Ines

    2017-01-01

    In this quantitative and qualitative mixed study, the researcher focused on a range of factors that drive principals' decision making and examined the variables that affect principals' decision-making. The study assessed the extent to which principals' leadership and decision-making processes exert influence on the operations of inclusion…

  7. Assessment for Operator Confidence in Automated Space Situational Awareness and Satellite Control Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorman, J.; Voshell, M.; Sliva, A.

    2016-09-01

    The United States is highly dependent on space resources to support military, government, commercial, and research activities. Satellites operate at great distances, observation capacity is limited, and operator actions and observations can be significantly delayed. Safe operations require support systems that provide situational understanding, enhance decision making, and facilitate collaboration between human operators and system automation both in-the-loop, and on-the-loop. Joint cognitive systems engineering (JCSE) provides a rich set of methods for analyzing and informing the design of complex systems that include both human decision-makers and autonomous elements as coordinating teammates. While, JCSE-based systems can enhance a system analysts' understanding of both existing and new system processes, JCSE activities typically occur outside of traditional systems engineering (SE) methods, providing sparse guidance about how systems should be implemented. In contrast, the Joint Director's Laboratory (JDL) information fusion model and extensions, such as the Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture, provide the means to divide and conquer such engineering and implementation complexity, but are loosely coupled to specialized organizational contexts and needs. We previously describe how Dual Node Decision Wheels (DNDW) extend the DNN to integrate JCSE analysis and design with the practicalities of system engineering and implementation using the DNN. Insights from Rasmussen's JCSE Decision Ladders align system implementation with organizational structures and processes. In the current work, we present a novel approach to assessing system performance based on patterns occurring in operational decisions that are documented by JCSE processes as traces in a decision ladder. In this way, system assessment is closely tied not just to system design, but the design of the joint cognitive system that includes human operators, decision-makers, information systems, and automated processes. Such operationally relevant and integrated testing provides a sound foundation for operator trust in system automation that is required to safely operate satellite systems.

  8. Distributed decision support for the 21st century mission space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuay, William K.

    2002-07-01

    The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: increased humanitarian missions, asymmetric warfare, the reliance on coalitions and allies, stringent rules of engagement, concern about casualties, and the need for sustained air operations. Future mission commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Integral to this process is creating situational assessment-understanding the mission space, simulation to analyze alternative futures, current capabilities, planning assessments, course-of-action assessments, and a common operational picture-keeping everyone on the same sheet of paper. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing these complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as planning an operation, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that is not currently fused. The marriage of information and simulation technologies provides the mission commander with a collaborative virtual environment for planning and decision support.

  9. A definition of high-level decisions in the engineering of systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Robert Anthony

    The role of the systems engineer defines that he or she be proactive and guide the program manager and their customers through their decisions to enhance the effectiveness of system development---producing faster, better, and cheaper systems. The present lack of coverage in literature on what these decisions are and how they relate to each other may be a contributing factor to the high rate of failure among system projects. At the onset of the system development process, decisions have an integral role in the design of a system that meets stakeholders' needs. This is apparent during the design and qualification of both the Development System and the Operational System. The performance, cost and schedule of the Development System affect the performance of the Operational System and are affected by decisions that influence physical elements of the Development System. The performance, cost, and schedule of the Operational System is affected by decisions that influence physical elements of the Operational System. Traditionally, product and process have been designed using know-how and trial and error. However, the empiricism of engineers and program managers is limited which can, and has led to costly mistakes. To date, very little research has explored decisions made in the engineering of a system. In government, literature exists on procurement processes for major system development; but in general literature on decisions, how they relate to each other, and the key information requirements within one of two systems and across the two systems is not readily available. This research hopes to improve the processes inherent in the engineering of systems. The primary focus of this research is on department of defense (DoD) military systems, specifically aerospace systems and may generalize more broadly. The result of this research is a process tool, a Decision System Model, which can be used by systems engineers to guide the program manager and their customers through the decisions about concurrently designing and qualifying both the Development and Operational systems.

  10. 32 CFR 651.4 - Responsibilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... operational testers, producers, users, and disposers) into the decision-making process. (v) Initiate the... environmental perspective, and to ensure that these determinations are part of the Army decision process. (p... agency input into the decision-making process. (5) Ensure that NEPA analysis is prepared and staffed...

  11. An Investigation of Operational Decision Making in Situ: Incident Command in the U.K. Fire and Rescue Service.

    PubMed

    Cohen-Hatton, Sabrina R; Butler, Philip C; Honey, Robert C

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand the nature of decision making at operational incidents in order to inform operational guidance and training. Normative models of decision making have been adopted in the guidance and training for emergency services. In these models, it is assumed that decision makers assess the current situation, formulate plans, and then execute the plans. However, our understanding of how decision making unfolds at operational incidents remains limited. Incident commanders, attending 33 incidents across six U.K. Fire and Rescue Services, were fitted with helmet-mounted cameras, and the resulting video footage was later independently coded and used to prompt participants to provide a running commentary concerning their decisions. The analysis revealed that assessment of the operational situation was most often followed by plan execution rather than plan formulation, and there was little evidence of prospection about the potential consequences of actions. This pattern of results was consistent across different types of incident, characterized by level of risk and time pressure, but was affected by the operational experience of the participants. Decision making did not follow the sequence of phases assumed by normative models and conveyed in current operational guidance but instead was influenced by both reflective and reflexive processes. These results have clear implications for understanding operational decision making as it occurs in situ and suggest a need for future guidance and training to acknowledge the role of reflexive processes. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  12. General Formalism of Decision Making Based on Theory of Open Quantum Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.

    2013-01-01

    We present the general formalism of decision making which is based on the theory of open quantum systems. A person (decision maker), say Alice, is considered as a quantum-like system, i.e., a system which information processing follows the laws of quantum information theory. To make decision, Alice interacts with a huge mental bath. Depending on context of decision making this bath can include her social environment, mass media (TV, newspapers, INTERNET), and memory. Dynamics of an ensemble of such Alices is described by Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad (GKSL) equation. We speculate that in the processes of evolution biosystems (especially human beings) designed such "mental Hamiltonians" and GKSL-operators that any solution of the corresponding GKSL-equation stabilizes to a diagonal density operator (In the basis of decision making.) This limiting density operator describes population in which all superpositions of possible decisions has already been resolved. In principle, this approach can be used for the prediction of the distribution of possible decisions in human populations.

  13. Enhancing The Army Operations Process Through The Incorportation of Holography

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-09

    the process and gives the user the sense of a noninvasive enhancement to quickly make decisions . Processes and information no longer create...mentally overlaying it onto the process . Data now augments reality and is a noninvasive process to decision making . v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper...environment, augmented on top of reality decreases the amount of time needed to make decisions

  14. Development the conceptual design of Knowledge Based System for Integrated Maintenance Strategy and Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milana; Khan, M. K.; Munive, J. E.

    2014-07-01

    The importance of maintenance has escalated significantly by the increasing of automation in manufacturing process. This condition switches traditional maintenance perspective of inevitable cost into the business competitive driver. Consequently, maintenance strategy and operation decision needs to be synchronized to business and manufacturing concerns. This paper shows the development of conceptual design of Knowledge Based System for Integrated Maintenance Strategy and Operation (KBIMSO). The framework of KBIMSO is elaborated to show the process of how the KBIMSO works to reach the maintenance decision. By considering the multi-criteria of maintenance decision making, the KB system embedded with GAP and AHP to support integrated maintenance strategy and operation which is novel in this area. The KBIMSO is useful to review the existing maintenance system and give reasonable recommendation of maintenance decisions in respect to business and manufacturing perspective.

  15. Operator models for delivering municipal solid waste management services in developing countries: Part B: Decision support.

    PubMed

    Soós, Reka; Whiteman, Andrew D; Wilson, David C; Briciu, Cosmin; Nürnberger, Sofia; Oelz, Barbara; Gunsilius, Ellen; Schwehn, Ekkehard

    2017-08-01

    This is the second of two papers reporting the results of a major study considering 'operator models' for municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in emerging and developing countries. Part A documents the evidence base, while Part B presents a four-step decision support system for selecting an appropriate operator model in a particular local situation. Step 1 focuses on understanding local problems and framework conditions; Step 2 on formulating and prioritising local objectives; and Step 3 on assessing capacities and conditions, and thus identifying strengths and weaknesses, which underpin selection of the operator model. Step 4A addresses three generic questions, including public versus private operation, inter-municipal co-operation and integration of services. For steps 1-4A, checklists have been developed as decision support tools. Step 4B helps choose locally appropriate models from an evidence-based set of 42 common operator models ( coms); decision support tools here are a detailed catalogue of the coms, setting out advantages and disadvantages of each, and a decision-making flowchart. The decision-making process is iterative, repeating steps 2-4 as required. The advantages of a more formal process include avoiding pre-selection of a particular com known to and favoured by one decision maker, and also its assistance in identifying the possible weaknesses and aspects to consider in the selection and design of operator models. To make the best of whichever operator models are selected, key issues which need to be addressed include the capacity of the public authority as 'client', management in general and financial management in particular.

  16. Crisis Management in the Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, John P.; Kishur, Joseph M., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the decision-making processes of community college presidents when confronted with unexpected and major challenges. During the day-to-day operations of community colleges, presidents typically rely on their best judgment when making routine decisions. However, this decision-making process needs to change when the unexpected…

  17. Practicing What You Preach: Achieving Unity of Effort and Unified Action During Domestic Response Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-05-10

    planners will also benefit from experiencing the regimented military decision - making process and working with experienced operational planners. This...picture of the disaster area for the senior decision -makers, duplication of efforts, gaps in addressing requests for assistance, and the inefficient...Guard Atlantic Area. Interview by author, 25 March 2007. Mr. Doane stated that the JTF operated “in a vacuum” and “outside the inter-agency decision

  18. Generalized Cartographic and Simultaneous Representation of Utility Networks for Decision-Support Systems and Crisis Management in Urban Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, T.; König, G.

    2015-10-01

    Cartographic visualizations of crises are used to create a Common Operational Picture (COP) and enforce Situational Awareness by presenting relevant information to the involved actors. As nearly all crises affect geospatial entities, geo-data representations have to support location-specific analysis throughout the decision-making process. Meaningful cartographic presentation is needed for coordinating the activities of crisis manager in a highly dynamic situation, since operators' attention span and their spatial memories are limiting factors during the perception and interpretation process. Situational Awareness of operators in conjunction with a COP are key aspects in decision-making process and essential for making well thought-out and appropriate decisions. Considering utility networks as one of the most complex and particularly frequent required systems in urban environment, meaningful cartographic presentation of multiple utility networks with respect to disaster management do not exist. Therefore, an optimized visualization of utility infrastructure for emergency response procedures is proposed. The article will describe a conceptual approach on how to simplify, aggregate, and visualize multiple utility networks and their components to meet the requirements of the decision-making process and to support Situational Awareness.

  19. Advancements in Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management for Commercial Nuclear Power Plants

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liming, James K.; Ravindra, Mayasandra K.

    2006-07-01

    Over the past several years, ABSG Consulting Inc. (ABS Consulting) and the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) have developed a decision support process and associated software for risk-informed, performance-based asset management (RIPBAM) of nuclear power plant facilities. RIPBAM applies probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools and techniques in the realm of plant physical and financial asset management. The RIPBAM process applies a tiered set of models and supporting performance measures (or metrics) that can ultimately be applied to support decisions affecting the allocation and management of plant resources (e.g., funding, staffing, scheduling, etc.). In general, the ultimate goal ofmore » the RIPBAM process is to continually support decision-making to maximize a facility's net present value (NPV) and long-term profitability for its owners. While the initial applications of RIPBAM have been for nuclear power stations, the methodology can easily be adapted to other types of power station or complex facility decision-making support. RIPBAM can also be designed to focus on performance metrics other than NPV and profitability (e.g., mission reliability, operational availability, probability of mission success per dollar invested, etc.). Recent advancements in the RIPBAM process focus on expanding the scope of previous RIPBAM applications to include not only operations, maintenance, and safety issues, but also broader risk perception components affecting plant owner (stockholder), operator, and regulator biases. Conceptually, RIPBAM is a comprehensive risk-informed cash flow model for decision support. It originated as a tool to help manage plant refueling outage scheduling, and was later expanded to include the full spectrum of operations and maintenance decision support. However, it differs from conventional business modeling tools in that it employs a systems engineering approach with broadly based probabilistic analysis of organizational 'value streams'. The scope of value stream inclusion in the process can be established by the user, but in its broadest applications, RIPBAM can be used to address how risk perceptions of plant owners and regulators are impacted by plant performance. Plant staffs can expand and refine RIPBAM models scope via a phased program of activities over time. This paper shows how the multi-metric uncertainty analysis feature of RIPBAM can apply a wide spectrum of decision-influencing factors to support decisions designed to maximize the probability of achieving, maintaining, and improving upon plant goals and objectives. In this paper, the authors show how this approach can be extremely valuable to plant owners and operators in supporting plant value-impacting decision-making processes. (authors)« less

  20. The impact of stakeholder involvement in hospital policy decision-making: a study of the hospital's business processes.

    PubMed

    Malfait, Simon; Van Hecke, Ann; Hellings, Johan; De Bodt, Griet; Eeckloo, Kristof

    2017-02-01

    In many health care systems, strategies are currently deployed to engage patients and other stakeholders in decisions affecting hospital services. In this paper, a model for stakeholder involvement is presented and evaluated in three Flemish hospitals. In the model, a stakeholder committee advises the hospital's board of directors on themes of strategic importance. To study the internal hospital's decision processes in order to identify the impact of a stakeholder involvement committee on strategic themes in the hospital decision processes. A retrospective analysis of the decision processes was conducted in three hospitals that implemented a stakeholder committee. The analysis consisted of process and outcome evaluation. Fifteen themes were discussed in the stakeholder committees, whereof 11 resulted in a considerable change. None of these were on a strategic level. The theoretical model was not applied as initially developed, but was altered by each hospital. Consequentially, the decision processes differed between the hospitals. Despite alternation of the model, the stakeholder committee showed a meaningful impact in all hospitals on the operational level. As a result of the differences in decision processes, three factors could be identified as facilitators for success: (1) a close interaction with the board of executives, (2) the inclusion of themes with a more practical and patient-oriented nature, and (3) the elaboration of decisions on lower echelons of the organization. To effectively influence the organization's public accountability, hospitals should involve stakeholders in the decision-making process of the organization. The model of a stakeholder committee was not applied as initially developed and did not affect the strategic decision-making processes in the involved hospitals. Results show only impact at the operational level in the participating hospitals. More research is needed connecting stakeholder involvement with hospital governance.

  1. Cognitive level and health decision-making in children: A preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Okwumabua, J O; Okwumabua, T M; Hayes, A; Stovall, K

    1994-06-01

    The study examines children's stage of cognitive development in relation to their patterns of health decision-making, including their cognitive capabilities in integrating the sequential stages of the decision-making process. A sample of 81 male (N=33) and female (N=48) students were drawn from two urban public schools in West Tennessee. All participants in the study were of African-American descent. The Centers for Disease Control Decision-Making Instrument was used to assess students' decision-making as well as their understanding of the decision-making process. The children's cognitive level was determined by their performance on three Piagetian conservation tasks. Findings revealed that both the preoperational and concrete operational children performed significantly below the formal operational children in terms of total correct responses to the decision-making scenarios. Error type analyses indicated that the preoperational children made more errors involving "skipped step" than did either the concrete or formal operational children. There were no significant differences between children's level of cognitive development and any other error type. Implications for health promotion and disease prevention programs among prevention practitioners who work regularly with children are discussed.

  2. Assessing the Utility of the Willingness/Prototype Model in Predicting Help-Seeking Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammer, Joseph H.; Vogel, David L.

    2013-01-01

    Prior research on professional psychological help-seeking behavior has operated on the assumption that the decision to seek help is based on intentional and reasoned processes. However, research on the dual-process prototype/willingness model (PWM; Gerrard, Gibbons, Houlihan, Stock, & Pomery, 2008) suggests health-related decisions may also…

  3. Testing the Intelligence of Unmanned Autonomous Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    decisions without the operator. The term autonomous is also used interchangeably with intelligent, giving rise to the name unmanned autonomous system ( UAS ...For the purposes of this article, UAS describes an unmanned system that makes decisions based on gathered information. Because testers should not...make assumptions about the decision process within a UAS , there is a need for a methodology that completely tests this decision process without biasing

  4. Simultaneous Visualization of Different Utility Networks for Disaster Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semm, S.; Becker, T.; Kolbe, T. H.

    2012-07-01

    Cartographic visualizations of crises are used to create a Common Operational Picture (COP) and enforce Situational Awareness by presenting and representing relevant information. As nearly all crises affect geospatial entities, geo-data representations have to support location-specific decision-making throughout the crises. Since, Operator's attention span and their working memory are limiting factors for the process of getting and interpreting information; the cartographic presentation has to support individuals in coordinating their activities and with handling highly dynamic situations. The Situational Awareness of operators in conjunction with a COP are key aspects of the decision making process and essential for coming to appropriate decisions. Utility networks are one of the most complex and most needed systems within a city. The visualization of utility infrastructure in crisis situations is addressed in this paper. The paper will provide a conceptual approach on how to simplify, aggregate, and visualize multiple utility networks and their components to meet the requirements of the decision-making process and to support Situational Awareness.

  5. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir operating strategies.

  6. 30 CFR 939.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall become applicable...

  7. 30 CFR 903.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities, applies to surface...

  8. 30 CFR 939.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall become applicable...

  9. 30 CFR 903.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities, applies to surface...

  10. 30 CFR 903.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities, applies to surface...

  11. 30 CFR 939.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall become applicable...

  12. 30 CFR 939.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall become applicable...

  13. 30 CFR 939.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall become applicable...

  14. 30 CFR 903.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities, applies to surface...

  15. 42 CFR 433.119 - Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.119 Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision. (a) CMS... information: (1) CMS's decision to reduce FFP for system operations from 75 percent to 50 percent of...

  16. 42 CFR 433.119 - Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.119 Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision. (a) CMS... information: (1) CMS's decision to reduce FFP for system operations from 75 percent to 50 percent of...

  17. 42 CFR 433.119 - Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.119 Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision. (a) CMS... information: (1) CMS's decision to reduce FFP for system operations from 75 percent to 50 percent of...

  18. 42 CFR 433.119 - Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.119 Conditions for reapproval; notice of decision. (a) CMS... information: (1) CMS's decision to reduce FFP for system operations from 75 percent to 50 percent of...

  19. A synthesis of drug reimbursement decision-making processes in organisation for economic co-operation and development countries.

    PubMed

    Barnieh, Lianne; Manns, Braden; Harris, Anthony; Blom, Marja; Donaldson, Cam; Klarenbach, Scott; Husereau, Don; Lorenzetti, Diane; Clement, Fiona

    2014-01-01

    The use of a restrictive formulary, with placement determined through a drug-reimbursement decision-making process, is one approach to managing drug expenditures. To describe the processes in drug reimbursement decision-making systems currently used in national publicly funded outpatient prescription drug insurance plans. By using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations as the sampling frame, a search was done in the published literature, followed by the gray literature. Collected data were verified by a system expert within the prescription drug insurance plan in each country to ensure the accuracy of key data elements across countries. All but one country provided at least one publicly funded prescription drug formulary. Many systems have adopted similar processes of drug reimbursement decision making. All but three systems required additional consideration of clinical evidence within the decision-making process. Transparency of recommendations varied between systems, from having no information publicly available (three systems) to all information available and accessible to the public (16 systems). Only four countries did not consider cost within the drug reimbursement decision-making process. There were similarities in the decision-making process for drug reimbursement across the systems; however, only five countries met the highest standard of transparency, requirement of evidence, and ability to appeal. Future work should focus on examining how these processes may affect formulary listing decisions for drugs between countries. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

  20. Characterization of Decision Making Behaviors Associated with Human Systems Integration (HSI) Design Tradeoffs: Subject Matter Expert Interviews

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-11-18

    this research was to characterize the naturalistic decision making process used in Naval Aviation acquisition to assess cost, schedule and...Naval Aviation acquisitions can be identified, which can support the future development of new processes and tools for training and decision making...part of Department of Defense acquisition processes , HSI ensures that operator, maintainer and sustainer considerations are incorporated into

  1. Automated Interactive Simulation Model (AISIM) VAX Version 5.0 Training Manual.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-05-29

    action, activity, decision , etc. that consumes time. The entity is automatically created by the system when an ACTION Primitive is placed. 1.3.2.4 The...MODELED SYSTEM 1.3.2.1 The Process Entity. A Process is used to represent the operations, decisions , actions or activities that can be decomposed and...is associated with the Action entity described below, is included in Process definitions to indicate the time a certain Action (or process, decision

  2. 13 CFR 120.837 - SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. 120.837 Section 120.837 Business Credit...) Extending A Cdc's Area of Operations § 120.837 SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. The processing District Office must solicit the comments of any...

  3. 13 CFR 120.837 - SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. 120.837 Section 120.837 Business Credit...) Extending A Cdc's Area of Operations § 120.837 SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. The processing District Office must solicit the comments of any...

  4. 13 CFR 120.837 - SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. 120.837 Section 120.837 Business Credit...) Extending A Cdc's Area of Operations § 120.837 SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. The processing District Office must solicit the comments of any...

  5. 13 CFR 120.837 - SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. 120.837 Section 120.837 Business Credit...) Extending A Cdc's Area of Operations § 120.837 SBA decision on application for a new CDC or for an existing CDC to expand Area of Operations. The processing District Office must solicit the comments of any...

  6. BIG DATA ANALYTICS AND PRECISION ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SYMPOSIUM: Data to decisions.

    PubMed

    White, B J; Amrine, D E; Larson, R L

    2018-04-14

    Big data are frequently used in many facets of business and agronomy to enhance knowledge needed to improve operational decisions. Livestock operations collect data of sufficient quantity to perform predictive analytics. Predictive analytics can be defined as a methodology and suite of data evaluation techniques to generate a prediction for specific target outcomes. The objective of this manuscript is to describe the process of using big data and the predictive analytic framework to create tools to drive decisions in livestock production, health, and welfare. The predictive analytic process involves selecting a target variable, managing the data, partitioning the data, then creating algorithms, refining algorithms, and finally comparing accuracy of the created classifiers. The partitioning of the datasets allows model building and refining to occur prior to testing the predictive accuracy of the model with naive data to evaluate overall accuracy. Many different classification algorithms are available for predictive use and testing multiple algorithms can lead to optimal results. Application of a systematic process for predictive analytics using data that is currently collected or that could be collected on livestock operations will facilitate precision animal management through enhanced livestock operational decisions.

  7. 30 CFR 922.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  8. 30 CFR 922.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  9. 30 CFR 947.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  10. 30 CFR 941.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  11. 30 CFR 922.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  12. 30 CFR 912.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  13. 30 CFR 905.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  14. 30 CFR 910.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  15. 30 CFR 905.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  16. 30 CFR 905.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  17. 30 CFR 941.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  18. 30 CFR 912.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  19. 30 CFR 941.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  20. 30 CFR 922.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  1. 30 CFR 947.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  2. 30 CFR 947.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  3. 30 CFR 941.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  4. 30 CFR 910.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  5. 30 CFR 910.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  6. 30 CFR 910.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  7. 30 CFR 905.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitions, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  8. 30 CFR 941.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  9. 30 CFR 912.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  10. 30 CFR 947.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  11. 30 CFR 947.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  12. 30 CFR 922.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  13. 30 CFR 912.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and regulatory responsibilities shall apply to surface...

  14. Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grant, Warren; Lutomski, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA model and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA model and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.

  15. STATISTICS-BASED APPROACH TO WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper describes work toward development of a convenient decision support system to improve everyday operation and control of the wastewater treatment process. The goal is to help the operator detect problems in the process and select appropriate control actions. The system...

  16. Individual differences in competent consumer choice: the role of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills.

    PubMed

    Graffeo, Michele; Polonio, Luca; Bonini, Nicolao

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate whether cognitive reflection and numeracy skills affect the quality of the consumers' decision-making process in a purchase decision context. In a first (field) experiment, an identical product was on sale in two shops with different initial prices and discounts. One of the two deals was better than the other and the consumers were asked to choose the best one and to describe which arithmetic operations they used to solve the problem; then they were asked to complete the numeracy scale (Lipkus et al., 2001). The choice procedures used by the consumers were classified as "complete decision approach" when all the arithmetic operations needed to solve the problem were computed, and as "partial decision approach" when only some operations were computed. A mediation model shows that higher numeracy is associated with use of the complete decision approach. In turn, this approach is positively associated with the quality of the purchase decision. Given that these findings highlight the importance of the decision processes, in a second (laboratory) experiment we used a supplementary method to study the type of information search used by the participants: eye-tracking. In this experiment the participants were presented with decision problems similar to those used in Experiment 1 and they completed the Lipkus numeracy scale and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT; Frederick, 2005). Participants with a high CRT score chose the best deal more frequently, and showed a more profound and detailed information search pattern compared to participants with a low CRT score. Overall, results indicate that higher levels of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills predict the use of a more thorough decision process (measured with two different techniques: retrospective verbal reports and eye movements). In both experiments the decision process is a crucial factor which greatly affects the quality of the purchase decision.

  17. Individual differences in competent consumer choice: the role of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills

    PubMed Central

    Graffeo, Michele; Polonio, Luca; Bonini, Nicolao

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate whether cognitive reflection and numeracy skills affect the quality of the consumers’ decision-making process in a purchase decision context. In a first (field) experiment, an identical product was on sale in two shops with different initial prices and discounts. One of the two deals was better than the other and the consumers were asked to choose the best one and to describe which arithmetic operations they used to solve the problem; then they were asked to complete the numeracy scale (Lipkus et al., 2001). The choice procedures used by the consumers were classified as “complete decision approach” when all the arithmetic operations needed to solve the problem were computed, and as “partial decision approach” when only some operations were computed. A mediation model shows that higher numeracy is associated with use of the complete decision approach. In turn, this approach is positively associated with the quality of the purchase decision. Given that these findings highlight the importance of the decision processes, in a second (laboratory) experiment we used a supplementary method to study the type of information search used by the participants: eye-tracking. In this experiment the participants were presented with decision problems similar to those used in Experiment 1 and they completed the Lipkus numeracy scale and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT; Frederick, 2005). Participants with a high CRT score chose the best deal more frequently, and showed a more profound and detailed information search pattern compared to participants with a low CRT score. Overall, results indicate that higher levels of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills predict the use of a more thorough decision process (measured with two different techniques: retrospective verbal reports and eye movements). In both experiments the decision process is a crucial factor which greatly affects the quality of the purchase decision. PMID:26136721

  18. Decision making in prioritization of required operational capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreeva, P.; Karev, M.; Kovacheva, Ts.

    2015-10-01

    The paper describes an expert heuristic approach to prioritization of required operational capabilities in the field of defense. Based on expert assessment and by application of the method of Analytical Hierarchical Process, a methodology for their prioritization has been developed. It has been applied to practical simulation decision making games.

  19. Battle Environment Assessment for Commanders: A Concept of Support for Joint and Component Strategy and Operations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-03-14

    focused application of decision aids. These decision aids must incorporate standardized processes, computer assisted artificial intelligence, linkage...Theater Planning. A Strategic-Operational Perspective,’ by COL MIke ,or i n Olesak, John, LTC Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, Inteligence , U S

  20. 30 CFR 937.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and rith the February 26, 1980, May 16, 1980, and...

  1. 30 CFR 937.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and rith the February 26, 1980, May 16, 1980, and...

  2. 30 CFR 937.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and rith the February 26, 1980, May 16, 1980, and...

  3. 30 CFR 937.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and rith the February 26, 1980, May 16, 1980, and...

  4. 30 CFR 937.764 - Process for designating areas unsuitable for surface coal mining operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Mining Operations, pertaining to petitioning, initial processing, hearing requirements, decisions, data base and inventory systems, public information, and rith the February 26, 1980, May 16, 1980, and...

  5. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approachmore » - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.« less

  6. Induced simplified neutrosophic correlated aggregation operators for multi-criteria group decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şahin, Rıdvan; Zhang, Hong-yu

    2018-03-01

    Induced Choquet integral is a powerful tool to deal with imprecise or uncertain nature. This study proposes a combination process of the induced Choquet integral and neutrosophic information. We first give the operational properties of simplified neutrosophic numbers (SNNs). Then, we develop some new information aggregation operators, including an induced simplified neutrosophic correlated averaging (I-SNCA) operator and an induced simplified neutrosophic correlated geometric (I-SNCG) operator. These operators not only consider the importance of elements or their ordered positions, but also take into account the interactions phenomena among decision criteria or their ordered positions under multiple decision-makers. Moreover, we present a detailed analysis of I-SNCA and I-SNCG operators, including the properties of idempotency, commutativity and monotonicity, and study the relationships among the proposed operators and existing simplified neutrosophic aggregation operators. In order to handle the multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) situations where the weights of criteria and decision-makers usually correlative and the criterion values are considered as SNNs, an approach is established based on I-SNCA operator. Finally, a numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach and to verify its effectiveness and practicality.

  7. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-06-17

    conventional military superiority of the U.S. presents significant operational challenges. Recovery forces are vulnerable conducting personnel recovery... forced to evade. In this strategic context, the military’s decision-making process with regard to personnel recovery is completely rational. 15...superiority of the U.S. presents significant operational challenges. Recovery forces are vulnerable conducting personnel recovery because the situation

  8. [The Role and Function of Informatics Nurses in Information Technology Decision-Making].

    PubMed

    Lee, Tso-Ying

    2017-08-01

    The medical environment has changed greatly with the coming of the information age, and, increasingly, the operating procedures for medical services have been altered in keeping with the trend toward mobile, paperless services. Informatization has the potential to improve the working efficiency of medical personnel, enhance patient care safety, and give medical organizations a positive image. Informatics nurses play an important role in the decision-making processes that accompany informatization. As one of the decision-making links in the information technology lifecycle, this role affects the success of the development and operation of information systems. The present paper examines the functions and professional knowledge that informatics nurses must possess during the technology lifecycle, the four stages of which include: planning, analysis, design/development/revision, and implementation/assessment/support/maintenance. The present paper further examines the decision-making shortcomings and errors that an informatics nurses may make during the decision-making process. We hope that this paper will serve as an effective and useful reference for informatics nurses during the informatization decision-making process.

  9. 12 CFR 613.3010 - Financing for processing or marketing operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... overseeing the policies, business practices, management, and decision-making process of the legal entity; or... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Financing for processing or marketing... for processing or marketing operations. (a) Eligible borrowers. A borrower is eligible for financing...

  10. An In-Process Surface Roughness Recognition System in End Milling Operations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Lieh-Dai; Chen, Joseph C.

    2004-01-01

    To develop an in-process quality control system, a sensor technique and a decision-making algorithm need to be applied during machining operations. Several sensor techniques have been used in the in-process prediction of quality characteristics in machining operations. For example, an accelerometer sensor can be used to monitor the vibration of…

  11. Application fields for the new Object Management Group (OMG) Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN) in the perioperative field.

    PubMed

    Wiemuth, M; Junger, D; Leitritz, M A; Neumann, J; Neumuth, T; Burgert, O

    2017-08-01

    Medical processes can be modeled using different methods and notations. Currently used modeling systems like Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) are not capable of describing the highly flexible and variable medical processes in sufficient detail. We combined two modeling systems, Business Process Management (BPM) and Adaptive Case Management (ACM), to be able to model non-deterministic medical processes. We used the new Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN). First, we explain how CMMN, DMN and BPMN could be used to model non-deterministic medical processes. We applied this methodology to model 79 cataract operations provided by University Hospital Leipzig, Germany, and four cataract operations provided by University Eye Hospital Tuebingen, Germany. Our model consists of 85 tasks and about 20 decisions in BPMN. We were able to expand the system with more complex situations that might appear during an intervention. An effective modeling of the cataract intervention is possible using the combination of BPM and ACM. The combination gives the possibility to depict complex processes with complex decisions. This combination allows a significant advantage for modeling perioperative processes.

  12. PRA and Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

  13. 75 FR 48955 - Arbitration Panel Decision Under the Randolph-Sheppard Act

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-12

    ... vending machine facility operated by a blind vendor at the USPS's Chicago Processing and Distribution... cafeteria operations are exempt from the Act and whether the vending machines operated by a private vendor at the Chicago Processing and Distribution Center are in direct competition with the vending machines...

  14. Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sànchez-Marrè, Miquel; Gilbert, Karina; Sojda, Rick S.; Steyer, Jean Philippe; Struss, Peter; Rodríguez-Roda, Ignasi; Voinov, A.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Rizzoli, A.E.

    2006-01-01

    There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

  15. Development of Chemical Process Design and Control for ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This contribution describes a novel process systems engineering framework that couples advanced control with sustainability evaluation and decision making for the optimization of process operations to minimize environmental impacts associated with products, materials, and energy. The implemented control strategy combines a biologically inspired method with optimal control concepts for finding more sustainable operating trajectories. The sustainability assessment of process operating points is carried out by using the U.S. E.P.A.’s Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for the ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Process Evaluator (GREENSCOPE) tool that provides scores for the selected indicators in the economic, material efficiency, environmental and energy areas. The indicator scores describe process performance on a sustainability measurement scale, effectively determining which operating point is more sustainable if there are more than several steady states for one specific product manufacturing. Through comparisons between a representative benchmark and the optimal steady-states obtained through implementation of the proposed controller, a systematic decision can be made in terms of whether the implementation of the controller is moving the process towards a more sustainable operation. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study of a continuous fermentation process for fuel production, whose materi

  16. Modeling Hospital Discharge and Placement Decision Making: Whither the Elderly.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, William F.; Pelham, Anabel O.

    This paper examines the hospital discharge decision making process for elderly patients, based on observations of the operations of a long term care agency, the California Multipurpose Senior Services Project. The analysis is divided into four components: actors, factors, processes, and strategy critique. The first section discusses the major…

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn, provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

  18. Naturalistic Decision Making in Power Grid Operations: Implications for Dispatcher Training and Usability Testing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin

    2008-11-17

    The focus of the present study is on improved training approaches to accelerate learning and improved methods for analyzing effectiveness of tools within a high-fidelity power grid simulated environment. A theory-based model has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The theoretical foundation for the method is based on the concepts of situation awareness, the methods of cognitive task analysis, and the naturalistic decision making (NDM) approach of Recognition Primed Decision Making. The method has been systematically explored and refined as part of a capability demonstration ofmore » a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine NDM processes, we analyzed transcripts of operator-to-operator conversations during the simulated scenario to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed framework can be used constructively to map or assess the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify the mental models and mental simulations that the operators employ at different points in the scenario. This report documents the method, describes elements of the model, and provides appendices that document the simulation scenario and the associated mental models used by operators in the scenario.« less

  19. 30 CFR 550.270 - What decisions will BOEM make on the DPP or DOCD and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.270 What decisions...

  20. 30 CFR 550.270 - What decisions will BOEM make on the DPP or DOCD and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.270 What decisions...

  1. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    PubMed

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

  2. Clinical decision making: how surgeons do it.

    PubMed

    Crebbin, Wendy; Beasley, Spencer W; Watters, David A K

    2013-06-01

    Clinical decision making is a core competency of surgical practice. It involves two distinct types of mental process best considered as the ends of a continuum, ranging from intuitive and subconscious to analytical and conscious. In practice, individual decisions are usually reached by a combination of each, according to the complexity of the situation and the experience/expertise of the surgeon. An expert moves effortlessly along this continuum, according to need, able to apply learned rules or algorithms to specific presentations, choosing these as a result of either pattern recognition or analytical thinking. The expert recognizes and responds quickly to any mismatch between what is observed and what was expected, coping with gaps in information and making decisions even where critical data may be uncertain or unknown. Even for experts, the cognitive processes involved are difficult to articulate as they tend to be very complex. However, if surgeons are to assist trainees in developing their decision-making skills, the processes need to be identified and defined, and the competency needs to be measurable. This paper examines the processes of clinical decision making in three contexts: making a decision about how to manage a patient; preparing for an operative procedure; and reviewing progress during an operative procedure. The models represented here are an exploration of the complexity of the processes, designed to assist surgeons understand how expert clinical decision making occurs and to highlight the challenge of teaching these skills to surgical trainees. © 2013 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  3. Nurses' role and care practices in decision-making regarding artificial ventilation in late stage pulmonary disease.

    PubMed

    Jerpseth, Heidi; Dahl, Vegard; Nortvedt, Per; Halvorsen, Kristin

    2017-11-01

    Decisions regarding whether or not to institute mechanical ventilation during the later stages of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is challenging both ethically, emotionally and medically. Caring for these patients is a multifaceted process where nurses play a crucial role. Research question and design: We have investigated how nurses experienced their own role in decision-making processes regarding mechanical ventilation in later stages of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and how they consider the patients' role in these processes. We applied a qualitative approach, with six focus-group interviews of nurses (n = 26). Ethical considerations: The Regional Committees for Medical and Health Research Ethics approved the study. Voluntary informed consent was obtained. The nurses found themselves operating within a cure-directed treatment culture wherein they were unable to stand up for the caring values. They perceived their roles and responsibilities in decision-making processes regarding mechanical ventilation to patients as unclear and unsatisfactory. They also experienced inadequate interdisciplinary cooperation. Lack of communication skills, the traditional hierarchical hospital culture together with operating in a medical-orientated treatment culture where caring values is rated as less important might explain the nurses' absence in participation in the decision about mechanical ventilation. To be able to advocate for the patients' and their own right to be included in decision-making processes, nurses need an awareness of their own responsibilities. This requires personal courage, leadership who are capable of organising common interpersonal meetings and willingness on the part of the physicians to include and value the nurses' participation in decision-making processes.

  4. Simulation and experimental studies of operators` decision styles and crew composition while using an ecological and traditional user interface for the control room of a nuclear power plant

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Meshkati, N.; Buller, B.J.; Azadeh, M.A.

    1995-04-01

    The goal of this research is threefold: (1) use of the Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-based levels of cognitive control -- the SRK framework -- to develop an integrated information processing conceptual framework (for integration of workstation, job, and team design); (2) to evaluate the user interface component of this framework -- the Ecological display; and (3) to analyze the effect of operators` individual information processing behavior and decision styles on handling plant disturbances plus their performance on, and preference for, Traditional and Ecological user interfaces. A series of studies were conducted. In Part I, a computer simulation model and amore » mathematical model were developed. In Part II, an experiment was designed and conducted at the EBR-II plant of the Argonne National Laboratory-West in Idaho Falls, Idaho. It is concluded that: the integrated SRK-based information processing model for control room operations is superior to the conventional rule-based model; operators` individual decision styles and the combination of their styles play a significant role in effective handling of nuclear power plant disturbances; use of the Ecological interface results in significantly more accurate event diagnosis and recall of various plant parameters, faster response to plant transients, and higher ratings of subject preference; and operators` decision styles affect on both their performance and preference for the Ecological interface.« less

  5. Expert Systems: A Conceptual Analysis and Prospects for Their Library Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubey, Yogendra P.

    This paper begins with a discussion of the decision-making process. The application of operations research technologies to managerial decision-making is noted, and the development of management information systems in organizations and some limitations of these systems are discussed. An overview of the Human Information Processing System (HIPS)…

  6. 28 CFR 40.7 - Operation and decision.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... review. (e) Fixed time limits. Responses shall be made within fixed time limits at each level of decision. Time limits may vary between institutions, but expeditious processing of grievances at each level of..., written responses. Each grievance shall be answered in writing at each level of decision and review. The...

  7. Formal analysis of the surgical pathway and development of a new software tool to assist surgeons in the decision making in primary breast surgery.

    PubMed

    Catanuto, Giuseppe; Pappalardo, Francesco; Rocco, Nicola; Leotta, Marco; Ursino, Venera; Chiodini, Paolo; Buggi, Federico; Folli, Secondo; Catalano, Francesca; Nava, Maurizio B

    2016-10-01

    The increased complexity of the decisional process in breast cancer surgery is well documented. With this study we aimed to create a software tool able to assist patients and surgeons in taking proper decisions. We hypothesized that the endpoints of breast cancer surgery could be addressed combining a set of decisional drivers. We created a decision support system software tool (DSS) and an interactive decision tree. A formal analysis estimated the information gain derived from each feature in the process. We tested the DSS on 52 patients and we analyzed the concordance of decisions obtained by different users and between the DSS suggestions and the actual surgery. We also tested the ability of the system to prevent post breast conservation deformities. The information gain revealed that patients preferences are the root of our decision tree. An observed concordance respectively of 0.98 and 0.88 was reported when the DSS was used twice by an expert operator or by a newly trained operator vs. an expert one. The observed concordance between the DSS suggestion and the actual decision was 0.69. A significantly higher incidence of post breast conservation defects was reported among patients who did not follow the DSS decision (Type III of Fitoussi, N = 4; 33.3%, p = 0.004). The DSS decisions can be reproduced by operators with different experience. The concordance between suggestions and actual decision is quite low, however the DSS is able to prevent post- breast conservation deformities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system for an operating system process scheduler.

    PubMed

    Butt, Muhammad Arif; Akram, Muhammad

    2016-01-01

    We present a new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for a process scheduler of a batch operating system. Our proposed intuitionistic fuzzy scheduling algorithm, inputs the nice value and burst time of all available processes in the ready queue, intuitionistically fuzzify the input values, triggers appropriate rules of our intuitionistic fuzzy inference engine and finally calculates the dynamic priority (dp) of all the processes in the ready queue. Once the dp of every process is calculated the ready queue is sorted in decreasing order of dp of every process. The process with maximum dp value is sent to the central processing unit for execution. Finally, we show complete working of our algorithm on two different data sets and give comparisons with some standard non-preemptive process schedulers.

  9. Assessment and forecasting of lightning potential and its effect on launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and John F. Kennedy Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weems, J.; Wyse, N.; Madura, J.; Secrist, M.; Pinder, C.

    1991-01-01

    Lightning plays a pivotal role in the operation decision process for space and ballistic launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Lightning forecasts are the responsibility of Detachment 11, 4th Weather Wing's Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility. These forecasts are important to daily ground processing as well as launch countdown decisions. The methodology and equipment used to forecast lightning are discussed. Impact on a recent mission is summarized.

  10. Improving Team Performance: Proceedings of the Rand Team Performance Workshop.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-08-01

    organization theory, small group processes, cognitive psychologi training and instruction , decision theory, artificial intelligence, and human engineering...theory, small group processes, cognitive psy- chology, training and instruction , heuristic modeling, decision theory, and human engineering. Within...interact with. The operators are taught about the equipment and how it works; the actual job is left to be learned aboard ship. The cognitive processes the

  11. Possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic aggregation operators and their application to multi-criteria group decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şahin, Rıdvan; Liu, Peide

    2017-07-01

    Simplified neutrosophic set (SNS) is an appropriate tool used to express the incompleteness, indeterminacy and uncertainty of the evaluation objects in decision-making process. In this study, we define the concept of possibility SNS including two types of information such as the neutrosophic performance provided from the evaluation objects and its possibility degree using a value ranging from zero to one. Then by extending the existing neutrosophic information, aggregation models for SNSs that cannot be used effectively to fusion the two different information described above, we propose two novel neutrosophic aggregation operators considering possibility, which are named as a possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted arithmetic averaging operator and possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted geometric averaging operator, and discuss their properties. Moreover, we develop a useful method based on the proposed aggregation operators for solving a multi-criteria group decision-making problem with the possibility simplified neutrosophic information, in which the weights of decision-makers and decision criteria are calculated based on entropy measure. Finally, a practical example is utilised to show the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  12. 30 CFR 250.270 - What decisions will MMS make on the DPP or DOCD and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 250.270 What decisions will MMS make... decision and may require you to meet certain conditions, including those to provide monitoring information...

  13. Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-05-25

    military decision making process (MDMP). Other changes to structure reveal administrative and safety risk information (i.e. personal operated vehicle... decision making , it requires commanders to have the capacity to make an informed , intuitive decision . Uncertainty...analysis. His situation required him to embrace uncertainty, and exercise an informed intuition to make a risk decision to create opportunity

  14. A trainable decisions-in decision-out (DEI-DEO) fusion system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1998-03-01

    Most of the decision fusion systems proposed hitherto in the literature for multiple data source (sensor) environments operate on the basis of pre-defined fusion logic, be they crisp (deterministic), probabilistic, or fuzzy in nature, with no specific learning phase. The fusion systems that are trainable, i.e., ones that have a learning phase, mostly operate in the features-in-decision-out mode, which essentially reduces the fusion process functionally to a pattern classification task in the joint feature space. In this study, a trainable decisions-in-decision-out fusion system is described which estimates a fuzzy membership distribution spread across the different decision choices based on the performance of the different decision processors (sensors) corresponding to each training sample (object) which is associated with a specific ground truth (true decision). Based on a multi-decision space histogram analysis of the performance of the different processors over the entire training data set, a look-up table associating each cell of the histogram with a specific true decision is generated which forms the basis for the operational phase. In the operational phase, for each set of decision inputs, a pointer to the look-up table learnt previously is generated from which a fused decision is derived. This methodology, although primarily designed for fusing crisp decisions from the multiple decision sources, can be adapted for fusion of fuzzy decisions as well if such are the inputs from these sources. Examples, which illustrate the benefits and limitations of the crisp and fuzzy versions of the trainable fusion systems, are also included.

  15. When parsimony is not enough: Considering dual processes and dual levels of influence in sexual decision making

    PubMed Central

    Rendina, H. Jonathon

    2015-01-01

    The literature on sexual decision making that has been used to understand behaviors relevant to HIV and STI risk has relied primarily on cognitive antecedents of behavior. In contrast, several prominent models of decision making outside of the sexual behavior literature rely on dual process models, in which both affective and cognitive processing are considered important precursors to behavior. Moreover, much of the literature on sexual behavior utilizes individual-level traits and characteristics to predict aggregated sexual behavior, despite decision making itself being a situational or event-level process. This paper proposes a framework for understanding sexual decision making as the result of dual processes (affective and cognitive) operating at dual level of influence (individual and situational). Finally, the paper ends with a discussion of the conceptual and methodological benefits and challenges to its use and future directions for research. PMID:26168978

  16. Minimization In Digital Design As A Meta-Planning Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, William P. C.; Wu, Jung-Gen

    1987-05-01

    In our model-based expert system for automatic digital system design, we formalize the design process into three sub-processes - compiling high-level behavioral specifications into primitive behavioral operations, grouping primitive operations into behavioral functions, and grouping functions into modules. Consideration of design minimization explicitly controls decision-making in the last two subprocesses. Design minimization, a key task in the automatic design of digital systems, is complicated by the high degree of interaction among the time sequence and content of design decisions. In this paper, we present an AI approach which directly addresses these interactions and their consequences by modeling the minimization prob-lem as a planning problem, and the management of design decision-making as a meta-planning problem.

  17. Decision Processes and Determinants of Hospital Evacuation and Shelter-in-Place During Hurricane Sandy.

    PubMed

    McGinty, Meghan D; Burke, Thomas A; Resnick, Beth; Barnett, Daniel J; Smith, Katherine C; Rutkow, Lainie

    Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals is complex, and existing literature contains little information about how these decisions are made in practice. To describe decision-making processes and identify determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. Semistructured interviews were conducted from March 2014 to February 2015 with key informants who had authority and responsibility for evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions for hospitals during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. Interviewees included hospital executives and state and local public health, emergency management, and emergency medical service officials from Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. Interviewees identified decision processes and determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. We interviewed 42 individuals from 32 organizations. Decisions makers reported relying on their instincts rather than employing guides or tools to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions during Hurricane Sandy. Risk to patient health from evacuation, prior experience, cost, and ability to maintain continuity of operations were the most influential factors in decision making. Flooding and utility outages, which were predicted to or actually impacted continuity of operations, were the primary determinants of evacuation. Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals can be improved by ensuring hospital emergency plans address flooding and include explicit thresholds that, if exceeded, would trigger evacuation. Comparative risk assessments that inform decision making would be enhanced by improved collection, analysis, and communication of data on morbidity and mortality associated with evacuation versus sheltering-in-place of hospitals. In addition, administrators and public officials can improve their preparedness to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions by practicing the use of decision-making tools during training and exercises.

  18. Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

    PubMed

    Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

    2013-01-01

    The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.

  19. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  20. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  1. Attitude towards one's illness vs. attitude towards a surgical operation, displayed by patients diagnosed with asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm and asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis.

    PubMed

    Stanisić, M; Rzepa, T

    2012-08-01

    Two most frequent asymptomatic diseases qualifying for vascular surgery are abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and internal carotid artery stenosis (ICAS). Emotions experienced by the patient activate processes of dealing with the cognitive dissonance of asymptomatic disease. The aim of this paper was to compare the reasons involved in decision making on surgery in two asymptomatic vascular pathologies. Fifty patients were divided into two groups: the ICAS group-27 (CAS or CEA) and the AAA group-23 (EVAR or open surgical operation (OSR). Specific questionnaire regarding: 1) self-image; 2) attitude to one's illness; 3) reasons for decision on surgery was applied for the study. The χ² test was used to for the analysis. The AAA patients reacted emotionally (88.2%) comparing to ICAS patients reacting "rationally" (59.3%) (α=0.05). In AAA patients attitude towards themselves had worsened (α=0.001) AAA patients were less likely to seek support in decision on surgery (α=0.01). ICAS patients are internally motivated (78.7%), whereas AAA patients are externally motivated (63.9%) (α=0.001). Reasons underlying the decision on surgery, were predominantly rational (55.8%). In the process of decision-making on surgery by asymptomatic patients, evolutionary transformation takes place - the emotional attitude to one's illness leads to rationally evaluated decision. Regardless of the causes the process of making a decision on surgical operation tended to run more smoothly in ICAS patients. The ICAS patients tended to display a rational attitude to their illness. AAA patients displayed a distinctly emotional attitude towards their illness.

  2. An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongchang

    In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection of an appropriate decision making method. Furthermore, some DMs may be exclusively using one or two specific methods which they are familiar with or trust and not realizing that they may be inappropriate to handle certain classes of the problems, thus yielding erroneous results. These issues reveal that in order to ensure a good decision a suitable decision method should be chosen before the decision making process proceeds. The first part of this dissertation proposes an MCDM process supported by an intelligent, knowledge-based advisor system referred to as Multi-Criteria Interactive Decision-Making Advisor and Synthesis process (MIDAS), which is able to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate decision making method and which provides insight to the user for fulfilling different preferences. The second part of this dissertation presents an autonomous decision making advisor which is capable of dealing with ever-evolving real time information and making autonomous decisions under uncertain conditions. The advisor encompasses a Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation which takes uncertainty into account when determines the best action for each system state. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  3. Operational Plan Ontology Model for Interconnection and Interoperability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, F.; Sun, Y. K.; Shi, H. Q.

    2017-03-01

    Aiming at the assistant decision-making system’s bottleneck of processing the operational plan data and information, this paper starts from the analysis of the problem of traditional expression and the technical advantage of ontology, and then it defines the elements of the operational plan ontology model and determines the basis of construction. Later, it builds up a semi-knowledge-level operational plan ontology model. Finally, it probes into the operational plan expression based on the operational plan ontology model and the usage of the application software. Thus, this paper has the theoretical significance and application value in the improvement of interconnection and interoperability of the operational plan among assistant decision-making systems.

  4. Willed action, free will, and the stochastic neurodynamics of decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Rolls, Edmund T.

    2012-01-01

    It is shown that the randomness of the firing times of neurons in decision-making attractor neuronal networks that is present before the decision cues are applied can cause statistical fluctuations that influence the decision that will be taken. In this rigorous sense, it is possible to partially predict decisions before they are made. This raises issues about free will and determinism. There are many decision-making networks in the brain. Some decision systems operate to choose between gene-specified rewards such as taste, touch, and beauty (in for example the peacock's tail). Other processes capable of planning ahead with multiple steps held in working memory may require correction by higher order thoughts that may involve explicit, conscious, processing. The explicit system can allow the gene-specified rewards not to be selected or deferred. The decisions between the selfish gene-specified rewards, and the explicitly calculated rewards that are in the interests of the individual, the phenotype, may themselves be influenced by noise in the brain. When the explicit planning system does take the decision, it can report on its decision-making, and can provide a causal account rather than a confabulation about the decision process. We might use the terms “willed action” and “free will” to refer to the operation of the planning system that can think ahead over several steps held in working memory with which it can take explicit decisions. Reduced connectivity in some of the default mode cortical regions including the precuneus that are active during self-initiated action appears to be related to the reduction in the sense of self and agency, of causing willed actions, that can be present in schizophrenia. PMID:22973205

  5. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  6. Application of agent-based system for bioprocess description and process improvement.

    PubMed

    Gao, Ying; Kipling, Katie; Glassey, Jarka; Willis, Mark; Montague, Gary; Zhou, Yuhong; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J

    2010-01-01

    Modeling plays an important role in bioprocess development for design and scale-up. Predictive models can also be used in biopharmaceutical manufacturing to assist decision-making either to maintain process consistency or to identify optimal operating conditions. To predict the whole bioprocess performance, the strong interactions present in a processing sequence must be adequately modeled. Traditionally, bioprocess modeling considers process units separately, which makes it difficult to capture the interactions between units. In this work, a systematic framework is developed to analyze the bioprocesses based on a whole process understanding and considering the interactions between process operations. An agent-based approach is adopted to provide a flexible infrastructure for the necessary integration of process models. This enables the prediction of overall process behavior, which can then be applied during process development or once manufacturing has commenced, in both cases leading to the capacity for fast evaluation of process improvement options. The multi-agent system comprises a process knowledge base, process models, and a group of functional agents. In this system, agent components co-operate with each other in performing their tasks. These include the description of the whole process behavior, evaluating process operating conditions, monitoring of the operating processes, predicting critical process performance, and providing guidance to decision-making when coping with process deviations. During process development, the system can be used to evaluate the design space for process operation. During manufacture, the system can be applied to identify abnormal process operation events and then to provide suggestions as to how best to cope with the deviations. In all cases, the function of the system is to ensure an efficient manufacturing process. The implementation of the agent-based approach is illustrated via selected application scenarios, which demonstrate how such a framework may enable the better integration of process operations by providing a plant-wide process description to facilitate process improvement. Copyright 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

  7. How do strategic decisions and operative practices affect operating room productivity?

    PubMed

    Peltokorpi, Antti

    2011-12-01

    Surgical operating rooms are cost-intensive parts of health service production. Managing operating units efficiently is essential when hospitals and healthcare systems aim to maximize health outcomes with limited resources. Previous research about operating room management has focused on studying the effect of management practices and decisions on efficiency by utilizing mainly modeling approach or before-after analysis in single hospital case. The purpose of this research is to analyze the synergic effect of strategic decisions and operative management practices on operating room productivity and to use a multiple case study method enabling statistical hypothesis testing with empirical data. 11 hypotheses that propose connections between the use of strategic and operative practices and productivity were tested in a multi-hospital study that included 26 units. The results indicate that operative practices, such as personnel management, case scheduling and performance measurement, affect productivity more remarkably than do strategic decisions that relate to, e.g., units' size, scope or academic status. Units with different strategic positions should apply different operative practices: Focused hospital units benefit most from sophisticated case scheduling and parallel processing whereas central and ambulatory units should apply flexible working hours, incentives and multi-skilled personnel. Operating units should be more active in applying management practices which are adequate for their strategic orientation.

  8. Evaluation of decision making and negotiation processes under uncertainties regarding the water management of Peiros-Parapeiros Dam, in Achaia Region (Greece).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podimata, Marianthi V.; Yannopoulos, Panayotis C.

    2015-04-01

    Water managers, decision-makers, water practitioners and others involved in Integrated Water Resources Management often encounter the problem of finding a joint agreement among stakeholders concerning the management of a common water body. Handling conflict situations/disputes over water issues and finding an acceptable joint solution remain a thorny issue in water negotiation processes, since finding a formula for wise, fair and sustainable management of a water resource is a complex process that includes environmental, economic, technical, socio-political criteria and their uncertainties. Decision Support Systems and Adaptive Management are increasingly used in that direction. To assist decision makers in handling water disputes and execute negotiations, a conceptual tool is required. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a Decision Support flexible tool for negotiation support regarding water conflicts. It includes efficient algorithms for estimating strategic moves of water stakeholders, even though there is a lack of detail concerning their real motives and prospects. It calculates the stability of their states and encourages what-if analyses. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers' evaluations concerning the management of up-coming technical infrastructure Peiros-Parapeiros Dam, in Achaia Region (Greece). The continuous consultations between institutions and representatives revealed that the formation of a joint agreement between stakeholders is not easy, due to arising conflicts and contradictions regarding the jurisdiction and legal status of the dam operator and the cost undertaking of the dam operation. This paper analyzes the positions of the parties involved in the consultation process and examines possible conflict resolution states, using GMCR II. This methodology tries to minimize uncertainty to a certain extent concerning the possible moves/decisions of involved parties regarding the operation and management of the dam by developing and simulating potential strategic interactions and multilateral negotiations and finding confidence-building cooperation schemes (cooperative arrangements) over water use and management.

  9. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Booth, Steven Richard

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision supportmore » to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.« less

  10. Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

    2009-06-23

    Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operatormore » conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.« less

  11. A multiscale forecasting method for power plant fleet management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hongmei

    In recent years the electric power industry has been challenged by a high level of uncertainty and volatility brought on by deregulation and globalization. A power producer must minimize the life cycle cost while meeting stringent safety and regulatory requirements and fulfilling customer demand for high reliability. Therefore, to achieve true system excellence, a more sophisticated system-level decision-making process with a more accurate forecasting support system to manage diverse and often widely dispersed generation units as a single, easily scaled and deployed fleet system in order to fully utilize the critical assets of a power producer has been created as a response. The process takes into account the time horizon for each of the major decision actions taken in a power plant and develops methods for information sharing between them. These decisions are highly interrelated and no optimal operation can be achieved without sharing information in the overall process. The process includes a forecasting system to provide information for planning for uncertainty. A new forecasting method is proposed, which utilizes a synergy of several modeling techniques properly combined at different time-scales of the forecasting objects. It can not only take advantages of the abundant historical data but also take into account the impact of pertinent driving forces from the external business environment to achieve more accurate forecasting results. Then block bootstrap is utilized to measure the bias in the estimate of the expected life cycle cost which will actually be needed to drive the business for a power plant in the long run. Finally, scenario analysis is used to provide a composite picture of future developments for decision making or strategic planning. The decision-making process is applied to a typical power producer chosen to represent challenging customer demand during high-demand periods. The process enhances system excellence by providing more accurate market information, evaluating the impact of external business environment, and considering cross-scale interactions between decision actions. Along with this process, system operation strategies, maintenance schedules, and capacity expansion plans that guide the operation of the power plant are optimally identified, and the total life cycle costs are estimated.

  12. Workload Capacity: A Response Time-Based Measure of Automation Dependence.

    PubMed

    Yamani, Yusuke; McCarley, Jason S

    2016-05-01

    An experiment used the workload capacity measure C(t) to quantify the processing efficiency of human-automation teams and identify operators' automation usage strategies in a speeded decision task. Although response accuracy rates and related measures are often used to measure the influence of an automated decision aid on human performance, aids can also influence response speed. Mean response times (RTs), however, conflate the influence of the human operator and the automated aid on team performance and may mask changes in the operator's performance strategy under aided conditions. The present study used a measure of parallel processing efficiency, or workload capacity, derived from empirical RT distributions as a novel gauge of human-automation performance and automation dependence in a speeded task. Participants performed a speeded probabilistic decision task with and without the assistance of an automated aid. RT distributions were used to calculate two variants of a workload capacity measure, COR(t) and CAND(t). Capacity measures gave evidence that a diagnosis from the automated aid speeded human participants' responses, and that participants did not moderate their own decision times in anticipation of diagnoses from the aid. Workload capacity provides a sensitive and informative measure of human-automation performance and operators' automation dependence in speeded tasks. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  13. Implementing an extension of the analytical hierarchy process using ordered weighted averaging operators with fuzzy quantifiers in ArcGIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boroushaki, Soheil; Malczewski, Jacek

    2008-04-01

    This paper focuses on the integration of GIS and an extension of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure. AHP_OWA is a multicriteria combination operator. The nature of the AHP_OWA depends on some parameters, which are expressed by means of fuzzy linguistic quantifiers. By changing the linguistic terms, AHP_OWA can generate a wide range of decision strategies. We propose a GIS-multicriteria evaluation (MCE) system through implementation of AHP_OWA within ArcGIS, capable of integrating linguistic labels within conventional AHP for spatial decision making. We suggest that the proposed GIS-MCE would simplify the definition of decision strategies and facilitate an exploratory analysis of multiple criteria by incorporating qualitative information within the analysis.

  14. Study of operator's information in the course of complicated and combined activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krylova, N. V.; Bokovikov, A. K.

    1982-08-01

    Speech characteristics of operators performing control and observation operations, Information reception, transmission and processing, and decision making when exposed to the real stress of parachute jumps were investigated. Form and content speech characteristics whose variations reflect the level of operators adaptation to stressful activities are reported.

  15. Overview of the Smart Network Element Architecture and Recent Innovations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perotti, Jose M.; Mata, Carlos T.; Oostdyk, Rebecca L.

    2008-01-01

    In industrial environments, system operators rely on the availability and accuracy of sensors to monitor processes and detect failures of components and/or processes. The sensors must be networked in such a way that their data is reported to a central human interface, where operators are tasked with making real-time decisions based on the state of the sensors and the components that are being monitored. Incorporating health management functions at this central location aids the operator by automating the decision-making process to suggest, and sometimes perform, the action required by current operating conditions. Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) aims to incorporate data from many sources, including real-time and historical data and user input, and extract information and knowledge from that data to diagnose failures and predict future failures of the system. By distributing health management processing to lower levels of the architecture, there is less bandwidth required for ISHM, enhanced data fusion, make systems and processes more robust, and improved resolution for the detection and isolation of failures in a system, subsystem, component, or process. The Smart Network Element (SNE) has been developed at NASA Kennedy Space Center to perform intelligent functions at sensors and actuators' level in support of ISHM.

  16. A negotiation methodology and its application to cogeneration planning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, S.M.; Liu, C.C.; Luu, S.

    Power system planning has become a complex process in utilities today. This paper presents a methodology for integrated planning with multiple objectives. The methodology uses a graphical representation (Goal-Decision Network) to capture the planning knowledge. The planning process is viewed as a negotiation process that applies three negotiation operators to search for beneficial decisions in a GDN. Also, the negotiation framework is applied to the problem of planning for cogeneration interconnection. The simulation results are presented to illustrate the cogeneration planning process.

  17. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED)

    PubMed Central

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A.

    2009-01-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social–cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions. PMID:20802851

  18. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    PubMed

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  19. The emergence of coherence over the course of decision making.

    PubMed

    Simon, D; Pham, L B; Le, Q A; Holyoak, K J

    2001-09-01

    Previous research has indicated that decision making is accompanied by an increase in the coherence of assessments of the factors related to the decision alternatives. In the present study, the authors investigated whether this coherence shift is obtained before people commit to a decision, and whether it is obtained in the course of a number of other processing tasks. College students were presented with a complex legal case involving multiple conflicting arguments. Participants rated agreement with the individual arguments in isolation before seeing the case and after processing it under various initial sets, including playing the role of a judge assigned to decide the case. Coherence shifts were observed when participants were instructed to delay making the decision (Experiment 1), to memorize the case (Experiment 2), and to comprehend the case (Experiment 3). The findings support the hypothesis that a coherence-generating mechanism operates in a variety of processing tasks, including decision making.

  20. Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

    2010-01-01

    How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

  1. An Investigation of Network Enterprise Risk Management Techniques to Support Military Net-Centric Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-01

    this information supports the decison - making process as it is applied to the management of risk. 2. Operational Risk Operational risk is the threat... reasonability . However, to make a software system fault tolerant, the system needs to recognize and fix a system state condition. To detect a fault, a fault...Tracking ..........................................51 C. DECISION- MAKING PROCESS................................................................51 1. Risk

  2. 40 CFR 1.27 - Offices of the Associate Administrators.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Agency decision-making processes, assessing the impact of Headquarters actions on Regional operations... Regional Operations. The Office of Regional Operations, under the supervision of an Associate Administrator... communications link between the Administrator/Deputy Administrator and the Regional Administrators. It provides a...

  3. Preparing for a decision support system.

    PubMed

    Callan, K

    2000-08-01

    The increasing pressure to reduce costs and improve outcomes is driving the health care industry to view information as a competitive advantage. Timely information is required to help reduce inefficiencies and improve patient care. Numerous disparate operational or transactional information systems with inconsistent and often conflicting data are no longer adequate to meet the information needs of integrated care delivery systems and networks in competitive managed care environments. This article reviews decision support system characteristics and describes a process to assess the preparedness of an organization to implement and use decision support systems to achieve a more effective, information-based decision process. Decision support tools included in this article range from reports to data mining.

  4. Modeling Choice Under Uncertainty in Military Systems Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-11-01

    operators rather than fuzzy operators. This is suggested for further research. 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) In AHP , objectives, functions and...14 4.1 IMPRECISELY SPECIFIED MULTIPLE A’ITRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY... 14 4.2 FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS...14 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) ................................... 14 4.4 SUBJECTIVE TRANSFER FUNCTION APPROACH

  5. Modeling treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

    PubMed

    Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

    1998-01-01

    Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead they are very often dependent and interleaved over time, mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In the paper, we show how the POMDP framework could be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease, and point out modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

  6. A Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Land Use, Transportation, Buildings/Infrastructure, and Materials Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    One issue for community groups, local and regional planners, and politicians, is that they require relevant information to develop programs and initiatives for incorporating sustainability principles into their physical infrastructure, operations, and decision-making processes. T...

  7. Computer Based Decision Support Tool for Helicopter Mission Planning in Disaster Relief and Military Operations (Outil informatique d’aide a la decision pour la planification des missions d’helicopteres dans des operations militaires et de secours en cas de catastrophe)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-01

    capacity planning; • Electrical generation capacity planning; • Machine scheduling; • Freight scheduling; • Dairy farm expansion planning...Support Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Products A.2.11.2.2.1 ELECTRE IS ELECTRE IS is a generalization of ELECTRE I. It is a...criteria, ELECTRE IS supports the user in the process of selecting one alternative or a subset of alternatives. The method consists of two parts

  8. Naturalistic Decision Making for Power System Operators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

    2010-02-01

    Motivation – Investigations of large-scale outages in the North American interconnected electric system often attribute the causes to three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. To document and understand the mental processes used by expert operators when making critical decisions, a naturalistic decision making (NDM) model was developed. Transcripts of conversations were analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design – An item analysis indicated that the operators’ Situation Awareness Levels, mental models, and mental simulations can be mapped at different points in the training scenario. This may identify improved training methods or analytical/ visualization tools. Originality/Value – This studymore » applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message – The NDM approach provides a viable framework for systematic training management to accelerate learning in simulator-based training scenarios for power system operators and teams.« less

  9. Some Muirhead Mean Operators for Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers and Their Applications to Group Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Liu, Peide; Li, Dengfeng

    2017-01-01

    Muirhead mean (MM) is a well-known aggregation operator which can consider interrelationships among any number of arguments assigned by a variable vector. Besides, it is a universal operator since it can contain other general operators by assigning some special parameter values. However, the MM can only process the crisp numbers. Inspired by the MM' advantages, the aim of this paper is to extend MM to process the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) and then to solve the multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems. Firstly, we develop some intuitionistic fuzzy Muirhead mean (IFMM) operators by extending MM to intuitionistic fuzzy information. Then, we prove some properties and discuss some special cases with respect to the parameter vector. Moreover, we present two new methods to deal with MAGDM problems with the intuitionistic fuzzy information based on the proposed MM operators. Finally, we verify the validity and reliability of our methods by using an application example, and analyze the advantages of our methods by comparing with other existing methods.

  10. Distributed collaborative environments for predictive battlespace awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuay, William K.

    2003-09-01

    The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Situational assessment is crucial in understanding the battlespace. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as analysis and planning, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that the commander must fused. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing AFRL research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to predictive battlespace awareness.

  11. Toward an operational model of decision making, emotional regulation, and mental health impact.

    PubMed

    Collura, Thomas Francis; Zalaquett, Ronald P; Bonnstetter, Carlos Joyce; Chatters, Seria J

    2014-01-01

    Current brain research increasingly reveals the underlying mechanisms and processes of human behavior, cognition, and emotion. In addition to being of interest to a wide range of scientists, educators, and professionals, as well as laypeople, brain-based models are of particular value in a clinical setting. Psychiatrists, psychologists, counselors, and other mental health professionals are in need of operational models that integrate recent findings in the physical, cognitive, and emotional domains, and offer a common language for interdisciplinary understanding and communication. Based on individual traits, predispositions, and responses to stimuli, we can begin to identify emotional and behavioral pathways and mental processing patterns. The purpose of this article is to present a brain-path activation model to understand individual differences in decision making and psychopathology. The first section discusses the role of frontal lobe electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry, summarizes state- and trait-based models of decision making, and provides a more complex analysis that supplements the traditional simple left-right brain model. Key components of the new model are the introduction of right hemisphere parallel and left hemisphere serial scanning in rendering decisions, and the proposition of pathways that incorporate both past experiences as well as future implications into the decision process. Main attributes of each decision-making mechanism are provided. The second section applies the model within the realm of clinical mental health as a tool to understand specific human behavior and pathology. Applications include general and chronic anxiety, depression, paranoia, risk taking, and the pathways employed when well-functioning operational integration is observed. Finally, specific applications such as meditation and mindfulness are offered to facilitate positive functioning.

  12. Analysis of methods of processing of expert information by optimization of administrative decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Churakov, D. Y.; Tsarkova, E. G.; Marchenko, N. D.; Grechishnikov, E. V.

    2018-03-01

    In the real operation the measure definition methodology in case of expert estimation of quality and reliability of application-oriented software products is offered. In operation methods of aggregation of expert estimates on the example of a collective choice of an instrumental control projects in case of software development of a special purpose for needs of institutions are described. Results of operation of dialogue decision making support system are given an algorithm of the decision of the task of a choice on the basis of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and also. The developed algorithm can be applied by development of expert systems to the solution of a wide class of the tasks anyway connected to a multicriteria choice.

  13. 30 CFR 550.270 - What decisions will BOEM make on the DPP or DOCD and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.270 What decisions... provide monitoring information. (2) Require you to modify your proposed DPP or DOCD, It fails to make...

  14. Development of Chemical Process Design and Control for Sustainability

    EPA Science Inventory

    This contribution describes a novel process systems engineering framework that couples advanced control with sustainability evaluation and decision making for the optimization of process operations to minimize environmental impacts associated with products, materials, and energy....

  15. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  16. Decision support systems and the healthcare strategic planning process: a case study.

    PubMed

    Lundquist, D L; Norris, R M

    1991-01-01

    The repertoire of applications that comprises health-care decision support systems (DSS) includes analyses of clinical, financial, and operational activities. As a whole, these applications facilitate developing comprehensive and interrelated business and medical models that support the complex decisions required to successfully manage today's health-care organizations. Kennestone Regional Health Care System's use of DSS to facilitate strategic planning has precipitated marked changes in the organization's method of determining capital allocations. This case study discusses Kennestone's use of DSS in the strategic planning process, including profiles of key DSS modeling components.

  17. A Cognitive Architecture for Human Performance Process Model Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-11-01

    individually defined, updatable world representation which is a description of the world as the operator knows it. It contains rules for decisions, an...operate it), and rules of engagement (knowledge about the operator’s expected behavior). The HPP model works in the following way. Information enters...based models depict the problem-solving processes of experts. The experts’ knowledge is represented in symbol structures, along with rules for

  18. When does reading dirty words impede picture processing? Taboo interference with verbal and manual responses.

    PubMed

    Mädebach, Andreas; Markuske, Anna-Maria; Jescheniak, Jörg D

    2018-05-22

    Picture naming takes longer in the presence of socially inappropriate (taboo) distractor words compared with neutral distractor words. Previous studies have attributed this taboo interference effect to increased attentional capture by taboo words or verbal self-monitoring-that is, control processes scrutinizing verbal responses before articulation. In this study, we investigated the cause and locus of the taboo interference effect by contrasting three tasks that used the same target pictures, but systematically differed with respect to the processing stages involved: picture naming (requiring conceptual processing, lexical processing, and articulation), phoneme decision (requiring conceptual and lexical processing), and natural size decision (requiring conceptual processing only). We observed taboo interference in picture naming and phoneme decision. In size decision, taboo interference was not reliably observed under the same task conditions in which the effect arose in picture naming and phoneme decision, but it emerged when the difficulty of the size decision task was increased by visually degrading the target pictures. Overall, these results suggest that taboo interference cannot be exclusively attributed to verbal self-monitoring operating over articulatory responses. Instead, taboo interference appears to arise already prior to articulatory preparation, during lexical processing and-at least with sufficiently high task difficulty-during prelexical processing stages.

  19. Distinction between Externally vs. Internally Guided Decision-Making: Operational Differences, Meta-Analytical Comparisons and Their Theoretical Implications

    PubMed Central

    Nakao, Takashi; Ohira, Hideki; Northoff, Georg

    2012-01-01

    Most experimental studies of decision-making have specifically examined situations in which a single less-predictable correct answer exists (externally guided decision-making under uncertainty). Along with such externally guided decision-making, there are instances of decision-making in which no correct answer based on external circumstances is available for the subject (internally guided decision-making). Such decisions are usually made in the context of moral decision-making as well as in preference judgment, where the answer depends on the subject’s own, i.e., internal, preferences rather than on external, i.e., circumstantial, criteria. The neuronal and psychological mechanisms that allow guidance of decisions based on more internally oriented criteria in the absence of external ones remain unclear. This study was undertaken to compare decision-making of these two kinds empirically and theoretically. First, we reviewed studies of decision-making to clarify experimental–operational differences between externally guided and internally guided decision-making. Second, using multi-level kernel density analysis, a whole-brain-based quantitative meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies was performed. Our meta-analysis revealed that the neural network used predominantly for internally guided decision-making differs from that for externally guided decision-making under uncertainty. This result suggests that studying only externally guided decision-making under uncertainty is insufficient to account for decision-making processes in the brain. Finally, based on the review and results of the meta-analysis, we discuss the differences and relations between decision-making of these two types in terms of their operational, neuronal, and theoretical characteristics. PMID:22403525

  20. Drinking Water Supply without Use of a Disinfectant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajnochova, Marketa; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan

    2018-02-01

    The paper focuses on the issue of drinking water supply without use of any disinfectants. Before the public water supply network operator begins to consider switching to operation without use of chemical disinfection, initial assessment should be made, whether or not the water supply system in question is suitable for this type of operation. The assessment is performed by applying the decision algorithm. The initial assessment is followed by another decision algorithm which serves for managing and controlling the process of switching to drinking water supply without use of a disinfectant. The paper also summarizes previous experience and knowledge of this way operated public water supply systems in the Czech Republic.

  1. 42 CFR 488.9 - Onsite observation of accreditation organization operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... the application review process, the validation review process, or the continuing oversight of an... limited to, the review of documents, auditing meetings concerning the accreditation process, the evaluation of survey results or the accreditation decision-making process, and interviews with the...

  2. 42 CFR 488.9 - Onsite observation of accreditation organization operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... the application review process, the validation review process, or the continuing oversight of an... limited to, the review of documents, auditing meetings concerning the accreditation process, the evaluation of survey results or the accreditation decision-making process, and interviews with the...

  3. 42 CFR 488.9 - Onsite observation of accreditation organization operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... the application review process, the validation review process, or the continuing oversight of an... limited to, the review of documents, auditing meetings concerning the accreditation process, the evaluation of survey results or the accreditation decision-making process, and interviews with the...

  4. 42 CFR 488.9 - Onsite observation of accreditation organization operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... the application review process, the validation review process, or the continuing oversight of an... limited to, the review of documents, auditing meetings concerning the accreditation process, the evaluation of survey results or the accreditation decision-making process, and interviews with the...

  5. Integration of multiple research disciplines on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Penley, N. J.; Uri, J.; Sivils, T.; Bartoe, J. D.

    2000-01-01

    The International Space Station will provide an extremely high-quality, long-duration microgravity environment for the conduct of research. In addition, the ISS offers a platform for performing observations of Earth and Space from a high-inclination orbit, outside of the Earth's atmosphere. This unique environment and observational capability offers the opportunity for advancement in a diverse set of research fields. Many of these disciplines do not relate to one another, and present widely differing approaches to study, as well as different resource and operational requirements. Significant challenges exist to ensure the highest quality research return for each investigation. Requirements from different investigations must be identified, clarified, integrated and communicated to ISS personnel in a consistent manner. Resources such as power, crew time, etc. must be apportioned to allow the conduct of each investigation. Decisions affecting research must be made at the strategic level as well as at a very detailed execution level. The timing of the decisions can range from years before an investigation to real-time operations. The international nature of the Space Station program adds to the complexity. Each participating country must be assured that their interests are represented during the entire planning and operations process. A process for making decisions regarding research planning, operations, and real-time replanning is discussed. This process ensures adequate representation of all research investigators. It provides a means for timely decisions, and it includes a means to ensure that all ISS International Partners have their programmatic interests represented. c 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Legal Policy Optimizing Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagel, Stuart; Neef, Marian

    1977-01-01

    The use of mathematical models originally developed by economists and operations researchers is described for legal process research. Situations involving plea bargaining, arraignment, and civil liberties illustrate the applicability of decision theory, inventory modeling, and linear programming in operations research. (LBH)

  7. Information : recommendations from the program review on operations funding

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-11-26

    Volpe Center staff completed the first phase of a review that investigated how operations projects compete for funding in the existing transportation decision-making process. This memorandum identifies possible actions that can be implemented in the ...

  8. Automating Mission Scheduling for Space-Based Observatories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pell, Barney; Muscettola, Nicola; Hansson, Othar; Mohan, Sunil

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we describe the use of our planning and scheduling framework, HSTS, to reduce the complexity of science mission planning. This work is part of an overall project to enable a small team of scientists to control the operations of a spacecraft. The present process is highly labor intensive. Users (scientists and operators) rely on a non-codified understanding of the different spacecraft subsystems and of their operating constraints. They use a variety of software tools to support their decision making process. This paper considers the types of decision making that need to be supported/automated, the nature of the domain constraints and the capabilities needed to address them successfully, and the nature of external software systems with which the core planning/scheduling engine needs to interact. HSTS has been applied to science scheduling for EUVE and Cassini and is being adapted to support autonomous spacecraft operations in the New Millennium initiative.

  9. Site selection for MSFC operational tests of solar heating and cooling systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    The criteria, methodology, and sequence aspects of the site selection process are presented. This report organized the logical thought process that should be applied to the site selection process, but final decisions are highly selective.

  10. From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery.

    PubMed

    Capan, Muge; Khojandi, Anahita; Denton, Brian T; Williams, Kimberly D; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kurt, Murat; Lobo, Jennifer Mason; Roberts, Mark S; Zaric, Greg; Zhang, Shengfan; Schwartz, J Sanford

    2017-11-01

    The Operations Research Interest Group (ORIG) within the Society of Medical Decision Making (SMDM) is a multidisciplinary interest group of professionals that specializes in taking an analytical approach to medical decision making and healthcare delivery. ORIG is interested in leveraging mathematical methods associated with the field of Operations Research (OR) to obtain data-driven solutions to complex healthcare problems and encourage collaborations across disciplines. This paper introduces OR for the non-expert and draws attention to opportunities where OR can be utilized to facilitate solutions to healthcare problems. Decision making is the process of choosing between possible solutions to a problem with respect to certain metrics. OR concepts can help systematically improve decision making through efficient modeling techniques while accounting for relevant constraints. Depending on the problem, methods that are part of OR (e.g., linear programming, Markov Decision Processes) or methods that are derived from related fields (e.g., regression from statistics) can be incorporated into the solution approach. This paper highlights the characteristics of different OR methods that have been applied to healthcare decision making and provides examples of emerging research opportunities. We illustrate OR applications in healthcare using previous studies, including diagnosis and treatment of diseases, organ transplants, and patient flow decisions. Further, we provide a selection of emerging areas for utilizing OR. There is a timely need to inform practitioners and policy makers of the benefits of using OR techniques in solving healthcare problems. OR methods can support the development of sustainable long-term solutions across disease management, service delivery, and health policies by optimizing the performance of system elements and analyzing their interaction while considering relevant constraints.

  11. Investigation of Capabilities and Technologies Supporting Rapid UAV Launch System Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Patrick Alan Livesay 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943 8. PERFORMING ...to operate. This enabled the launcher design team to more clearly determine and articulate system require- ments and performance parameters. Next, a...Process (AHP) was performed to xvii prioritize the capabilities and assist in the decision-making process [1]. The AHP decision-analysis technique is

  12. Using Markov Decision Processes with Heterogeneous Queueing Systems to Examine Military MEDEVAC Dispatching Policies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-23

    Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations 3-23-2017 Using Markov Decision Processes with Heterogeneous Queueing Systems... TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. The views expressed in...POLICIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology

  13. 14 CFR 1206.101 - Definitions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... disclosure (see paragraph (k) of this section). (j) The term duplication means the process of making a copy..., functions, policies, decisions, procedures, operations, or other activities or because of the informational..., a copy of which may be in NASA's possession. (b) The term initial determination means a decision by...

  14. Planning treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

    PubMed

    Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

    2000-03-01

    Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead, they are very often dependent and interleaved over time. This is mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in the operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In this paper, we show how the POMDP framework can be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), and demonstrate the modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

  15. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system: an adventure game!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Crochemore, Louise; Giuliani, Matteo; Aalbers, Emma

    2017-04-01

    In the design and building of an operational flood forecasting system, a large number of decisions have to be taken. These include technical decisions related to the choice of the meteorological forecasts to be used as input to the hydrological model, the choice of the hydrological model itself (its structure and parameters), the selection of a data assimilation procedure to run in real-time, the use (or not) of a post-processor, and the computing environment to run the models and display the outputs. Additionally, a number of trans-disciplinary decisions are also involved in the process, such as the way the needs of the users will be considered in the modelling setup and how the forecasts (and their quality) will be efficiently communicated to ensure usefulness and build confidence in the forecasting system. We propose to reflect on the numerous, alternative pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system through an adventure game. In this game, the player is the protagonist of an interactive story driven by challenges, exploration and problem-solving. For this presentation, you will have a chance to play this game, acting as the leader of a forecasting team at an operational centre. Your role is to manage the actions of your team and make sequential decisions that impact the design and running of the system in preparation to and during a flood event, and that deal with the consequences of the forecasts issued. Your actions are evaluated by how much they cost you in time, money and credibility. Your aim is to take decisions that will ultimately lead to a good balance between time and money spent, while keeping your credibility high over the whole process. This game was designed to highlight the complexities behind decision-making in an operational forecasting and emergency response context, in terms of the variety of pathways that can be selected as well as the timescale, cost and timing of effective actions.

  17. Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of International Tuna Fleets

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We developed an iterative sequential random utility model to investigate the social and environmental determinants of the spatiotemporal decision process of tuna purse-seine fishery fishing effort in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Operations of the fishing gear mark checkpoints in a continuous complex decision-making process. Individual fisher behavior is modeled by identifying diversified choices over decision-space for an entire fishing trip, which allows inclusion of prior and current vessel locations and conditions among the explanatory variables. Among these factors are vessel capacity; departure and arrival port; duration of the fishing trip; daily and cumulative distance travelled, which provides a proxy for operation costs; expected revenue; oceanographic conditions; and tons of fish on board. The model uses a two-step decision process to capture the probability of a vessel choosing a specific fishing region for the first set and the probability of switching to (or staying in) a specific region to fish before returning to its landing port. The model provides a means to anticipate the success of marine resource management, and it can be used to evaluate fleet diversity in fisher behavior, the impact of climate variability, and the stability and resilience of complex coupled human and natural systems. PMID:27537545

  18. Literature review on the structure and operation of Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committees.

    PubMed

    Durán-García, Esther; Santos-Ramos, Bernardo; Puigventos-Latorre, Francesc; Ortega, Ana

    2011-06-01

    To review the literature on the structure and operation of hospital Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committees from an international point of view and examine the factors that influence decision-making of these committees. We performed a literature search in the Medline and Embase databases from 1997 to January 2009 with the search terms: formulary system decision making, pharmacy and therapeutics committee, formularies hospital, drug formulary, survey, drug selection and outcome assessment health care. Inclusion criteria were the following: studies analyzing Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committees published in English or Spanish from 1997 to January 2009. Exclusion criteria were: publications which were editorials or opinion pieces, studies relating to one hospital, and studies where full text could not be attained. The analysis was divided into structural/organizational data and data on factors affecting the decision-making process. Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria. Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committees and formularies were present in more than 90% of the hospitals in four of the five countries examined. Therapeutic interchange programs existed only in two of these countries. The mean number of committee members ranged between six and eight. More than 89% of the committees included a pharmacist. Standard operating procedures were implemented by 89% of the committees. The most influential factors in the decision-making were clinical trial results or drug costs rather than pharmacoeconomic studies. Other local organization-dependent factors were also important. The structure and operating procedures of Hospital Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committees are similar in select Western countries. Information from clinical trials is the most influential factor in the decision-making process.

  19. 30 CFR 550.234 - How do I submit a modified EP or resubmit a disapproved EP, and when will BOEM make a decision?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.234 How do I submit a...

  20. 30 CFR 250.234 - How do I submit a modified EP or resubmit a disapproved EP, and when will MMS make a decision?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 250.234 How do I submit a...

  1. 30 CFR 550.234 - How do I submit a modified EP or resubmit a disapproved EP, and when will BOEM make a decision?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.234 How do I submit a...

  2. 30 CFR 550.234 - How do I submit a modified EP or resubmit a disapproved EP, and when will BOEM make a decision?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.234 How do I submit a...

  3. Challenging Operations: An Ethical Framework to Assist Humanitarian Aid Workers in their Decision-making Processes.

    PubMed

    Clarinval, Caroline; Biller-Andorno, Nikola

    2014-06-23

    This paper aims to raise awareness regarding ethical issues in the context of humanitarian action, and to offer a framework for systematically and effectively addressing such issues. Several cases highlight ethical issues that humanitarian aid workers are confronted with at different levels over the course of their deployments. The first case discusses a situation at a macro-level concerning decisions being made at the headquarters of a humanitarian organization. The second case looks at meso-level issues that need to be solved at a country or regional level. The third case proposes an ethical dilemma at the micro-level of the individual patient-provider relationship. These real-life cases have been selected to illustrate the ethical dimension of conflicts within the context of humanitarian action that might remain unrecognized in everyday practice. In addition, we propose an ethical framework to assist humanitarian aid workers in their decision-making process. The framework draws on the principles and values that guide humanitarian action and public health ethics more generally. Beyond identifying substantive core values, the framework also includes a ten-step process modelled on tools used in the clinical setting that promotes a transparent and clear decision-making process and improves the monitoring and evaluation of aid interventions. Finally, we recommend organizational measures to implement the framework effectively. This paper uses a combination of public health/clinical ethics concepts and practices and applies them to the decision-making challenges encountered in relief operations in the humanitarian aid context.

  4. A Decision-Oriented Investigation of Air Force Civil Engineering’s Operations Branch and the Implications for a Decision Support System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-09-01

    information when making a decision [ Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:3201." Driver and Mock used cognitive complexity ideas to develop this two dimensional...flexible AMOUNT OF INFORMATION USED High hierarchic integrative Figure 6. Cognitive Complexity Model ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:321) Decisive Style. The...large amount of inform- ation. However, he processes this information with a multiple focus approach ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:320-321). 26 McKenney

  5. Human Factors of CC-130 Operations. Volume 5: Human Factors in Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-02-01

    known about human information processing and decision making. Topics for HFDM training come directly from this theoretical framework . The proposed...The proposed training can be distinguished from other approaches with similar goals (either explicit or implicit) by its base within a theoretical ... framework of human information processing. The differences lie less in the content than in the way the material is organized and shaped by theory. The

  6. The Macro Dynamics of Weapon System Acquisition: Shaping Early Decisions to Get Better Outcomes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-17

    defects and rework •Design tools and processes •Lack of feedback to key design and SE processes •Lack of quantified risk and uncertainty at key... Tools for Rapid Exploration of the Physical Design Space Coupling Operability, Interoperability, and Physical Feasibility Analyses – a Game Changer...Interoperability •Training Quantified Margins and Uncertainties at Each Critical Decision Point M&S RDT&E A Continuum of Tools Underpinned with

  7. Creating Impact with Operations Research in Health: Making Room for Practice in Academia

    PubMed Central

    Brandeau, Margaret L.

    2015-01-01

    Operations research (OR)-based analyses have the potential to improve decision making for many important, real-world health care problems. However, junior scholars often avoid working on practical applications in health because promotion and tenure processes tend to value theoretical studies more highly than applied studies. This paper discusses the author's experiences in using OR to inform and influence decisions in health and provides a blueprint for junior researchers who wish to find success by taking a similar path. This involves selecting good problems to study, forming productive collaborations with domain experts, developing appropriate models, identifying the most salient results from an analysis, and effectively disseminating findings to decision makers. The paper then suggests how journals, funding agencies, and senior academics can encourage such work by taking a broader and more informed view of the potential role and contributions of OR to solving health care problems. Making room in academia for the application of OR in health follows in the tradition begun by the founders of operations research: to work on important real-world problems where operations research can contribute to better decision making. PMID:26003321

  8. Processing Technology Selection for Municipal Sewage Treatment Based on a Multi-Objective Decision Model under Uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xudong; Xu, Zhongwen; Yao, Liming; Ma, Ning

    2018-03-05

    This study considers the two factors of environmental protection and economic benefits to address municipal sewage treatment. Based on considerations regarding the sewage treatment plant construction site, processing technology, capital investment, operation costs, water pollutant emissions, water quality and other indicators, we establish a general multi-objective decision model for optimizing municipal sewage treatment plant construction. Using the construction of a sewage treatment plant in a suburb of Chengdu as an example, this paper tests the general model of multi-objective decision-making for the sewage treatment plant construction by implementing a genetic algorithm. The results show the applicability and effectiveness of the multi-objective decision model for the sewage treatment plant. This paper provides decision and technical support for the optimization of municipal sewage treatment.

  9. New Directions for Military Decision Making Research in Combat and Operational Settings

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    information; their search rules emphasize feasibility more than optimality; decisions depend on the order in which alternatives are presented...12:76-90. Easterbrook, J.A. "The effect of Emotion on Cue Utilization and the Organization of Behaviour." Psychological Review, 1959, 66:183-201...Acquisition and Affective State on Halo, Accuracy, Information Retrival , and Evaluations." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1988, 42:22

  10. Practice Patterns Regarding Multidisciplinary Cancer Management and Suggestions for Further Refinement: Results from a National Survey in Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Yun-Gyoo; Oh, Sukjoong; Kimm, Heejin; Koo, Dong-Hoe; Kim, Do Yeun; Kim, Bong-Seog; Lee, Seung-Sei

    2017-10-01

    This study was conducted to explore the process and operation of a cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) after the reimbursement decision in Korea, and to identify ways to overcome the major barriers to effective and sustainable MDTs. Approximately 1,000 cancer specialists, including medical oncologists, surgical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pathologists, and radiologists in general hospitals in Koreawere invited to complete the survey. The questionnaire covered the following topics: organizational structure of MDTs, candidates for consulting, the clinical decision-making initiative, and responsibility for dealing with legal disputes. We collected a total of 179 responses (18%) from physicians at institutions where an MDT approach was active. A surgical oncologist (91%), internist (90%),radiologist (89%),radiation oncologist (86%), pathologist (71%), and trainees (20%) regularly participated in MDT operations. Approximately 55% of respondents stated that MDTs met regularly. In cases of a split opinion, the physician in charge (69%) or chairperson (17%) made the final decision, and most (86%) stated they followed the final decision. About 15% and 32% of respondents were "very satisfied" and "satisfied," respectively, with the current MDT's operations. Among 38 institutional representatives, 34% responded that the MDT operation became more active and 18% stated an MDT was newly implemented after the reimbursement decision. The reimbursement decision invigorated MDT operations in almost half of eligible hospitals. Dissatisfaction regarding current MDTs was over 50%, and the high discordance rates regarding risk sharing suggest that it is necessary to revise the current system of MDTs.

  11. Defining when to offer operative treatment for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A regret-based decision curves analysis.

    PubMed

    Bagante, Fabio; Spolverato, Gaya; Cucchetti, Alessandro; Gani, Faiz; Popescu, Irinel; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Marques, Hugo P; Aldrighetti, Luca; Gamblin, T Clark; Maithel, Shishir K; Sandroussi, Charbel; Bauer, Todd W; Shen, Feng; Poultsides, George A; Marsh, James Wallis; Guglielmi, Alfredo; Pawlik, Timothy M

    2016-07-01

    Regret-based decision curve analysis (DCA) is a framework that assesses the medical decision process according to physician attitudes (expected regret) relative to disease-based factors. We sought to apply this methodology to decisions around the operative management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Utilizing a multicentric database of 799 patients who underwent liver resection for ICC, we developed a prognostic nomogram. DCA tested 3 strategies: (1) perform an operation on all patients, (2) never perform an operation, and (3) use the nomogram to select patients for an operation. Four preoperative variables were included in the nomogram: major vascular invasion (HR = 1.36), tumor number (multifocal, HR = 1.18), tumor size (>5 cm, HR = 1.45), and suspicious lymph nodes on imaging (HR = 1.47; all P < .05). The regret-DCA was assessed using an online survey of 50 physicians, expert in the treatment of ICC. For a patient with a multifocal ICC, largest lesion measuring >5 cm, one suspicious malignant lymph node, and vascular invasion on imaging, the 1-year predicted survival was 52% according to the nomogram. Based on the therapeutic decision of the regret-DCA, 60% of physicians would advise against an operation for this scenario. Conversely, all physicians recommended an operation to a patient with an early ICC (single nodule measuring 3 cm, no suspicious lymph nodes, and no vascular invasion at imaging). By integrating a nomogram based on preoperative variables and a regret-based DCA, we were able to define the elements of how decisions rely on medical knowledge (postoperative survival predicted by a nomogram, severity disease assessment) and physician attitudes (regret of commission and omission). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Evidence-Based and Value-Based Decision Making About Healthcare Design: An Economic Evaluation of the Safety and Quality Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Zadeh, Rana; Sadatsafavi, Hessam; Xue, Ryan

    2015-01-01

    This study describes a vision and framework that can facilitate the implementation of evidence-based design (EBD), scientific knowledge base into the process of the design, construction, and operation of healthcare facilities and clarify the related safety and quality outcomes for the stakeholders. The proposed framework pairs EBD with value-driven decision making and aims to improve communication among stakeholders by providing a common analytical language. Recent EBD research indicates that the design and operation of healthcare facilities contribute to an organization's operational success by improving safety, quality, and efficiency. However, because little information is available about the financial returns of evidence-based investments, such investments are readily eliminated during the capital-investment decision-making process. To model the proposed framework, we used engineering economy tools to evaluate the return on investments in six successful cases, identified by a literature review, in which facility design and operation interventions resulted in reductions in hospital-acquired infections, patient falls, staff injuries, and patient anxiety. In the evidence-based cases, calculated net present values, internal rates of return, and payback periods indicated that the long-term benefits of interventions substantially outweighed the intervention costs. This article explained a framework to develop a research-based and value-based communication language on specific interventions along the planning, design and construction, operation, and evaluation stages. Evidence-based and value-based design frameworks can be applied to communicate the life-cycle costs and savings of EBD interventions to stakeholders, thereby contributing to more informed decision makings and the optimization of healthcare infrastructures. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. The role of the production scheduling system in rescheduling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalinowski, K.; Grabowik, C.; Kempa, W.; Paprocka, I.

    2015-11-01

    The paper presents the rescheduling problem in the context of cooperation between production scheduling system (PSS) and other units in an integrated manufacturing environment - decision makers and software systems. The main aim is to discuss the PSS functionality for maximizing automation of the rescheduling process, reducing the response time and improving the quality of generated solutions. PSSs operate in the meeting of tactical and operational level of planning and control, and play an important role in the production preparation and control. On the basis of information about orders, technology and production system state (e.g. resources availability) they prepare and/or update a detailed plan of production flow - a schedule. All necessary data for scheduling and rescheduling are usually collected in other systems both from organizational and technical production preparation, e.g. ERP, PLM, MES, CAPP or others, as well as they are entered directly by the decision- makers/operators. Data acquired in this way are often incomplete and inconsistent. Therefore the existing rescheduling software works according to interactive method - rather support but does not replace the human decision maker in tasks planning. When rescheduling, due to the limited amount of time to make a decision this interaction is particularly important. An additional problem arises in data acquisition, in the process of data exchanging between systems or in the identification of new data sources and their processing. Different approaches to rescheduling were characterized, including those solutions, where all these operations are carried out by an autonomous system and those in which scheduling is performed only upon request from the outside, for the newly created scheduling data representing the current state of the production system.

  14. The capacity for ethical decisions: the relationship between working memory and ethical decision making.

    PubMed

    Martin, April; Bagdasarov, Zhanna; Connelly, Shane

    2015-04-01

    Although various models of ethical decision making (EDM) have implicitly called upon constructs governed by working memory capacity (WMC), a study examining this relationship specifically has not been conducted. Using a sense making framework of EDM, we examined the relationship between WMC and various sensemaking processes contributing to EDM. Participants completed an online assessment comprised of a demographic survey, intelligence test, various EDM measures, and the Automated Operation Span task to determine WMC. Results indicated that WMC accounted for unique variance above and beyond ethics education, exposure to ethical issues, and intelligence in several sensemaking processes. Additionally, a marginally significant effect of WMC was also found with reference to EDM. Individual differences in WMC appear likely to play an important role in the ethical decision-making process, and future researchers may wish to consider their potential influences.

  15. Optimal decision making modeling for copper-matte Peirce-Smith converting process by means of data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yanpo; Peng, Xiaoqi; Tang, Ying; Hu, Zhikun

    2013-07-01

    To improve the operation level of copper converter, the approach to optimal decision making modeling for coppermatte converting process based on data mining is studied: in view of the characteristics of the process data, such as containing noise, small sample size and so on, a new robust improved ANN (artificial neural network) modeling method is proposed; taking into account the application purpose of decision making model, three new evaluation indexes named support, confidence and relative confidence are proposed; using real production data and the methods mentioned above, optimal decision making model for blowing time of S1 period (the 1st slag producing period) are developed. Simulation results show that this model can significantly improve the converting quality of S1 period, increase the optimal probability from about 70% to about 85%.

  16. Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

  17. Establishment of Korean Nuclear Ombudsman System Importing Compensation and Insurance Concept for Residents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hyun Seok Ko; Yong Min Kim; Young Wook Lee

    2006-07-01

    In Korea, the nuclear power generation is grown technically well. Already, 20 nuclear reactors are operated, and approximate they supply the 40% of whole the consumption of electric power. This is the driving force of Korean industrial development. Besides, Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant that was developed by Korean self-technique with nuclear plant technique independence, Ul-Chin 6 has started the commercial operation. Advanced Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant, new Gori 1, 2 constructions are commenced. But, past days Korean situation is that intention of residents is neglected in the decision making process of nuclear power plant construction and operation. Inmore » existing decision making process, it is regarded as the role of public opinion is secondary, and the problem of decision making process is that public is persuaded and believed. So, in decision making process, the public opinion is considered restrictively, there is not the actual public participation. Therefore the dissatisfaction of public is increased continuously, and in Korea, bad recognition about nuclear power is getting full. The method of public participation for complement of this problem is public hearing or ombudsman system. The public hearing is ensuring public participation before decision of a case, and ombudsman is the system that elevates the public satisfaction through continuous feedback of public requirement to occur in deciding and performing the matters. In Korean situation, that present 20 nuclear reactors are operated and also the place of radioactive waste repository has been decided, not only the introduction of public hearing to decide the coming matter but also the operation of ombudsman system to continuously correct and collect the public requirements about the matter to already decided and operated is necessary. In Korea, administration type ombudsman is operated now. But, it has operated without basic element at the aspect of organization, function and phase. So it is not established a firm phase as right relief body to be believed by public with lack of independence, authority and specialty. Therefore the establishment of organization that can be the role as special ombudsman organization about sensitive and special matter like nuclear matter is necessary. Definite establishment element of ombudsman system is to introduce of congress type ombudsman element, to be permanent standing system ombudsman, to limit jurisdiction extent and have strong authority, to be able to access easily, to be composed of legal and nuclear specialist. One of important requirements of resident is compensation. So, based on the resident compensation theory about aversion equipment, ombudsman system should be established introducing the insurance theory through risk management as functional background for appropriate compensation. (authors)« less

  18. Eye Tracking and Pupillometry are Indicators of Dissociable Latent Decision Processes

    PubMed Central

    Cavanagh, James F.; Wiecki, Thomas V.; Kochar, Angad; Frank, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Can you predict what someone is going to do just by watching them? This is certainly difficult: it would require a clear mapping between observable indicators and unobservable cognitive states. In this report we demonstrate how this is possible by monitoring eye gaze and pupil dilation, which predict dissociable biases during decision making. We quantified decision making using the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM), which provides an algorithmic account of how evidence accumulation and response caution contribute to decisions through separate latent parameters of drift rate and decision threshold, respectively. We used a hierarchical Bayesian estimation approach to assess the single trial influence of observable physiological signals on these latent DDM parameters. Increased eye gaze dwell time specifically predicted an increased drift rate toward the fixated option, irrespective of the value of the option. In contrast, greater pupil dilation specifically predicted an increase in decision threshold during difficult decisions. These findings suggest that eye tracking and pupillometry reflect the operations of dissociated latent decision processes. PMID:24548281

  19. Strategies and Decision Support Systems for Integrating Variable Energy Resources in Control Centers for Reliable Grid Operations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jones, Lawrence E.

    This report provides findings from the field regarding the best ways in which to guide operational strategies, business processes and control room tools to support the integration of renewable energy into electrical grids.

  20. Pandemic Ventilator Rationing and Appeals Processes

    PubMed Central

    Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

    2014-01-01

    In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans. PMID:20354793

  1. Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

    PubMed

    Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

    2011-06-01

    In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

  2. Adaptive automation of human-machine system information-processing functions.

    PubMed

    Kaber, David B; Wright, Melanie C; Prinzel, Lawrence J; Clamann, Michael P

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this research was to describe the ability of human operators to interact with adaptive automation (AA) applied to various stages of complex systems information processing, defined in a model of human-automation interaction. Forty participants operated a simulation of an air traffic control task. Automated assistance was adaptively applied to information acquisition, information analysis, decision making, and action implementation aspects of the task based on operator workload states, which were measured using a secondary task. The differential effects of the forms of automation were determined and compared with a manual control condition. Results of two 20-min trials of AA or manual control revealed a significant effect of the type of automation on performance, particularly during manual control periods as part of the adaptive conditions. Humans appear to better adapt to AA applied to sensory and psychomotor information-processing functions (action implementation) than to AA applied to cognitive functions (information analysis and decision making), and AA is superior to completely manual control. Potential applications of this research include the design of automation to support air traffic controller information processing.

  3. Fuzzy multi-objective optimization case study based on an anaerobic co-digestion process of food waste leachate and piggery wastewater.

    PubMed

    Choi, Angelo Earvin Sy; Park, Hung Suck

    2018-06-20

    This paper presents the development and evaluation of fuzzy multi-objective optimization for decision-making that includes the process optimization of anaerobic digestion (AD) process. The operating cost criteria which is a fundamental research gap in previous AD analysis was integrated for the case study in this research. In this study, the mixing ratio of food waste leachate (FWL) and piggery wastewater (PWW), calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) and sodium chloride (NaCl) concentrations were optimized to enhance methane production while minimizing operating cost. The results indicated a maximum of 63.3% satisfaction for both methane production and operating cost under the following optimal conditions: mixing ratio (FWL: PWW) - 1.4, CaCO 3 - 2970.5 mg/L and NaCl - 2.7 g/L. In multi-objective optimization, the specific methane yield (SMY) was 239.0 mL CH 4 /g VS added , while 41.2% volatile solids reduction (VSR) was obtained at an operating cost of 56.9 US$/ton. In comparison with the previous optimization study that utilized the response surface methodology, the SMY, VSR and operating cost of the AD process were 310 mL/g, 54% and 83.2 US$/ton, respectively. The results from multi-objective fuzzy optimization proves to show the potential application of this technique for practical decision-making in the process optimization of AD process. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Some Ideas on the Microcomputer and the Information/Knowledge Workstation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, J. A.; Pienaar, H.

    1989-01-01

    Identifies the optimal goal of knowledge workstations as the harmony of technology and human decision-making behaviors. Two types of decision-making processes are described and the application of each type to experimental and/or operational situations is discussed. Suggestions for technical solutions to machine-user interfaces are then offered.…

  5. RDT&E Laboratory Capacity Utilization and Productivity Measurement Methods for Financial Decision-Making within DON.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-06-01

    process or plant can complete using a 24-hour, seven-day operation with zero waste , i.e., the maximum output capability, allowing no adjustment for...models: • Resource Effectiveness Model: > Analyzes economic impact of capacity management decisions > Assumes that " zero waste " is the goal > Supports

  6. 7 CFR 1412.50 - Matters of general applicability.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., including but not limited to, decisions of whether or not to conduct a lottery, lottery selection process... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS DIRECT AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL... to §§ 11.3 and 780.5 of this title. Additionally, these rules and any decisions of CCC and FSA that...

  7. Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations - recent successes and future prospects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Runge, M.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.; Schodde, Richard; Hannon, Susan; Scheiffarth, Gregor; Bairlein, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The history of North American waterfowl harvest management has been characterized by attempts to use population monitoring data to make informed harvest management decisions. Early attempts can be characterized as intuitive decision processes, and later efforts were guided increasingly by population models and associated predictions. In 1995, a formal adaptive management process was implemented, and annual decisions about duck harvest regulations in the United States are still based on this process. This formal decision process is designed to deal appropriately with the various forms of uncertainty that characterize management decisions, environmental uncertainty, structural uncertainty, partial controllability and partial observability. The key components of the process are (1) objectives, (2) potential management actions, (3) model(s) of population response to management actions, (4) credibility measures for these models, and (5) a monitoring program. The operation of this iterative process is described, and a brief history of a decade of its use is presented. Future challenges range from social and political issues such as appropriate objectives and management actions, to technical issues such as multispecies management, geographic allocation of harvest, and incorporation of actions that include habitat acquisition and management.

  8. FINITE-STATE APPROXIMATIONS TO DENUMERABLE-STATE DYNAMIC PROGRAMS,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    AIR FORCE OPERATIONS, LOGISTICS), (*INVENTORY CONTROL, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING), (*DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS)), INVENTORY CONTROL, DECISION MAKING, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, GAME THEORY, ALGORITHMS, CONVERGENCE

  9. Processes of Similarity Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larkey, Levi B.; Markman, Arthur B.

    2005-01-01

    Similarity underlies fundamental cognitive capabilities such as memory, categorization, decision making, problem solving, and reasoning. Although recent approaches to similarity appreciate the structure of mental representations, they differ in the processes posited to operate over these representations. We present an experiment that…

  10. A fuzzy decision tree for fault classification.

    PubMed

    Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero; Popescu, Irina C

    2008-02-01

    In plant accident management, the control room operators are required to identify the causes of the accident, based on the different patterns of evolution of the monitored process variables thereby developing. This task is often quite challenging, given the large number of process parameters monitored and the intense emotional states under which it is performed. To aid the operators, various techniques of fault classification have been engineered. An important requirement for their practical application is the physical interpretability of the relationships among the process variables underpinning the fault classification. In this view, the present work propounds a fuzzy approach to fault classification, which relies on fuzzy if-then rules inferred from the clustering of available preclassified signal data, which are then organized in a logical and transparent decision tree structure. The advantages offered by the proposed approach are precisely that a transparent fault classification model is mined out of the signal data and that the underlying physical relationships among the process variables are easily interpretable as linguistic if-then rules that can be explicitly visualized in the decision tree structure. The approach is applied to a case study regarding the classification of simulated faults in the feedwater system of a boiling water reactor.

  11. A Bayesian model averaging method for the derivation of reservoir operating rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jingwen; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Lei, Xiaohui; Zhou, Yanlai

    2015-09-01

    Because the intrinsic dynamics among optimal decision making, inflow processes and reservoir characteristics are complex, functional forms of reservoir operating rules are always determined subjectively. As a result, the uncertainty of selecting form and/or model involved in reservoir operating rules must be analyzed and evaluated. In this study, we analyze the uncertainty of reservoir operating rules using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model. Three popular operating rules, namely piecewise linear regression, surface fitting and a least-squares support vector machine, are established based on the optimal deterministic reservoir operation. These individual models provide three-member decisions for the BMA combination, enabling the 90% release interval to be estimated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. A case study of China's the Baise reservoir shows that: (1) the optimal deterministic reservoir operation, superior to any reservoir operating rules, is used as the samples to derive the rules; (2) the least-squares support vector machine model is more effective than both piecewise linear regression and surface fitting; (3) BMA outperforms any individual model of operating rules based on the optimal trajectories. It is revealed that the proposed model can reduce the uncertainty of operating rules, which is of great potential benefit in evaluating the confidence interval of decisions.

  12. Intercity passenger rail : Amtrak needs to improve its decision making process for its route and service proposals

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-04-01

    The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) is the nation's intercity passenger rail operator. In recent years, facing the continuing deterioration of its financial condition and its attempt to eliminate its need for federal operating assist...

  13. Assessing the utility of the willingness/prototype model in predicting help-seeking decisions.

    PubMed

    Hammer, Joseph H; Vogel, David L

    2013-01-01

    Prior research on professional psychological help-seeking behavior has operated on the assumption that the decision to seek help is based on intentional and reasoned processes. However, research on the dual-process prototype/willingness model (PWM; Gerrard, Gibbons, Houlihan, Stock, & Pomery, 2008) suggests health-related decisions may also involve social reaction processes that influence one's spontaneous willingness (rather than planned intention) to seek help, given conducive circumstances. The present study used structural equation modeling to evaluate the ability of these 2 information-processing pathways (i.e., the reasoned pathway and the social reaction pathway) to predict help-seeking decisions among 182 college students currently experiencing clinical levels of psychological distress. Results indicated that when both pathways were modeled simultaneously, only the social reaction pathway independently accounted for significant variance in help-seeking decisions. These findings argue for the utility of the PWM framework in the context of professional psychological help seeking and hold implications for future counseling psychology research, prevention, and practice. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Challenging Operations: An Ethical Framework to Assist Humanitarian Aid Workers in their Decision-making Processes

    PubMed Central

    Clarinval, Caroline; Biller-Andorno, Nikola

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: This paper aims to raise awareness regarding ethical issues in the context of humanitarian action, and to offer a framework for systematically and effectively addressing such issues. Methods: Several cases highlight ethical issues that humanitarian aid workers are confronted with at different levels over the course of their deployments. The first case discusses a situation at a macro-level concerning decisions being made at the headquarters of a humanitarian organization. The second case looks at meso-level issues that need to be solved at a country or regional level. The third case proposes an ethical dilemma at the micro-level of the individual patient-provider relationship. Discussion: These real-life cases have been selected to illustrate the ethical dimension of conflicts within the context of humanitarian action that might remain unrecognized in everyday practice. In addition, we propose an ethical framework to assist humanitarian aid workers in their decision-making process. The framework draws on the principles and values that guide humanitarian action and public health ethics more generally. Beyond identifying substantive core values, the framework also includes a ten-step process modelled on tools used in the clinical setting that promotes a transparent and clear decision-making process and improves the monitoring and evaluation of aid interventions. Finally, we recommend organizational measures to implement the framework effectively. Conclusion: This paper uses a combination of public health/clinical ethics concepts and practices and applies them to the decision-making challenges encountered in relief operations in the humanitarian aid context. PMID:24987575

  15. Uncertainty quantification in downscaling procedures for effective decisions in energy systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Constantinescu, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    Weather is a major driver both of energy supply and demand, and with the massive adoption of renewable energy sources and changing economic and producer-consumer paradigms, the management of the next-generation energy systems is becoming ever more challenging. The operational and planning decisions in energy systems are guided by efficiency and reliability, and therefore a central role in these decisions will be played by the ability to obtain weather condition forecasts with accurate uncertainty estimates. The appropriate temporal and spatial resolutions needed for effective decision-making, be it operational or planning, is not clear. It is arguably certain however, that such temporal scales as hourly variations of temperature or wind conditions and ramp events are essential in this process. Planning activities involve decade or decades-long projections of weather. One sensible way to achieve this is to embed regional weather models in a global climate system. This strategy acts as a downscaling procedure. Uncertainty modeling techniques must be developed in order to quantify and minimize forecast errors as well as target variables that impact the decision-making process the most. We discuss the challenges of obtaining a realistic uncertainty quantification estimate using mathematical algorithms based on scalable matrix-free computations and physics-based statistical models. The process of making decisions for energy management systems based on future weather scenarios is a very complex problem. We shall focus on the challenges in generating wind power predictions based on regional weather predictions, and discuss the implications of making the common assumptions about the uncertainty models.

  16. Clinical cognition and diagnostic error: applications of a dual process model of reasoning.

    PubMed

    Croskerry, Pat

    2009-09-01

    Both systemic and individual factors contribute to missed or delayed diagnoses. Among the multiple factors that impact clinical performance of the individual, the caliber of cognition is perhaps the most relevant and deserves our attention and understanding. In the last few decades, cognitive psychologists have gained substantial insights into the processes that underlie cognition, and a new, universal model of reasoning and decision making has emerged, Dual Process Theory. The theory has immediate application to medical decision making and provides an overall schema for understanding the variety of theoretical approaches that have been taken in the past. The model has important practical applications for decision making across the multiple domains of healthcare, and may be used as a template for teaching decision theory, as well as a platform for future research. Importantly, specific operating characteristics of the model explain how diagnostic failure occurs.

  17. Decision Support Systems for Launch and Range Operations Using Jess

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

    2007-01-01

    The virtual test bed for launch and range operations developed at NASA Ames Research Center consists of various independent expert systems advising on weather effects, toxic gas dispersions and human health risk assessment during space-flight operations. An individual dedicated server supports each expert system and the master system gather information from the dedicated servers to support the launch decision-making process. Since the test bed is based on the web system, reducing network traffic and optimizing the knowledge base is critical to its success of real-time or near real-time operations. Jess, a fast rule engine and powerful scripting environment developed at Sandia National Laboratory has been adopted to build the expert systems providing robustness and scalability. Jess also supports XML representation of knowledge base with forward and backward chaining inference mechanism. Facts added - to working memory during run-time operations facilitates analyses of multiple scenarios. Knowledge base can be distributed with one inference engine performing the inference process. This paper discusses details of the knowledge base and inference engine using Jess for a launch and range virtual test bed.

  18. Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

    2017-12-12

    This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

  19. Cognitive issues in autonomous spacecraft-control operations: An investigation of software-mediated decision making in a scaled environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, Elizabeth Drummond

    As advances in technology are applied in complex, semi-automated domains, human controllers are distanced from the controlled process. This physical and psychological distance may both facilitate and degrade human performance. To investigate cognitive issues in spacecraft ground-control operations, the present experimental research was undertaken. The primary issue concerned the ability of operations analysts who do not monitor operations to make timely, accurate decisions when autonomous software calls for human help. Another key issue involved the potential effects of spatial-visualization ability (SVA) in environments that present data in graphical formats. Hypotheses were derived largely from previous findings and predictions in the literature. Undergraduate psychology students were assigned at random to a monitoring condition or an on-call condition in a scaled environment. The experimental task required subjects to decide on the veracity of a problem diagnosis delivered by a software process on-board a simulated spacecraft. To support decision-making, tabular and graphical data displays presented information on system status. A level of software confidence in the problem diagnosis was displayed, and subjects reported their own level of confidence in their decisions. Contrary to expectations, the performance of on-call subjects did not differ significantly from that of continuous monitors. Analysis yielded a significant interaction of sex and condition: Females in the on-call condition had the lowest mean accuracy. Results included a preference for bar charts over line graphs and faster performance with tables than with line graphs. A significant correlation was found between subjective confidence and decision accuracy. SVA was found to be predictive of accuracy but not speed; and SVA was found to be a stronger predictor of performance for males than for females. Low-SVA subjects reported that they relied more on software confidence than did medium- or high-SVA subjects. These and other findings have implications for the design of user interfaces to support human decision-making in on-call situations and to accommodate low-SVA users.

  20. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Treesearch

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  1. NEFP Decision Process: "A Computer Simulation for Planning School Finance Programs." User Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boardman, Gerald R.; And Others

    The National Educational Finance Project has developed a computerized model designed to simulate the consequences of alternative decisions in regard to the financing of public elementary and secondary education. This manual describes a users orientation to that model. The model was designed as an operational prototype for States to use in a…

  2. An Information Theoretic Approach for Measuring Data Discovery and Utilization During Analytical and Decision Making Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-07-31

    and make the expected decision outcomes. The scenario is based around a scripted storyboard where an organized crime network is operating in a city to...interdicted by law enforcement to disrupt the network. The scenario storyboard was used to develop a probabilistic vehicle traffic model in order to

  3. 30 CFR 250.233 - What decisions will MMS make on the EP and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ..., REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 250.233 What..., including those to provide monitoring information. (2) Require you to modify your proposed EP The Regional...

  4. Some Memories Are Odder than Others: Judgments of Episodic Oddity Violate Known Decision Rules

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Connor, Akira R.; Guhl, Emily N.; Cox, Justin C.; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2011-01-01

    Current decision models of recognition memory are based almost entirely on one paradigm, single item old/new judgments accompanied by confidence ratings. This task results in receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) that are well fit by both signal-detection and dual-process models. Here we examine an entirely new recognition task, the judgment…

  5. 75 FR 68402 - Georges Creek Railway, LLC-Operation Exemption-in Allegany County, MD

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-05

    .... 25, 2005). By decision served December 14, 2005, WMS, LLC (WMS) was authorized to acquire the Line....27, and by decision served August 18, 2006, James Riffin was substituted as the acquiring entity in... acquired a rail line under the OFA process from transferring that line to any entity other than the...

  6. Working memory retrieval as a decision process

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Benjamin; Raškevičius, Julius; Bays, Paul M.; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

    2014-01-01

    Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation. PMID:24492597

  7. Working memory retrieval as a decision process.

    PubMed

    Pearson, Benjamin; Raskevicius, Julius; Bays, Paul M; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

    2014-02-03

    Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation.

  8. Application of stochastic multiattribute analysis to assessment of single walled carbon nanotube synthesis processes.

    PubMed

    Canis, Laure; Linkov, Igor; Seager, Thomas P

    2010-11-15

    The unprecedented uncertainty associated with engineered nanomaterials greatly expands the need for research regarding their potential environmental consequences. However, decision-makers such as regulatory agencies, product developers, or other nanotechnology stakeholders may not find the results of such research directly informative of decisions intended to mitigate environmental risks. To help interpret research findings and prioritize new research needs, there is an acute need for structured decision-analytic aids that are operable in a context of extraordinary uncertainty. Whereas existing stochastic decision-analytic techniques explore uncertainty only in decision-maker preference information, this paper extends model uncertainty to technology performance. As an illustrative example, the framework is applied to the case of single-wall carbon nanotubes. Four different synthesis processes (arc, high pressure carbon monoxide, chemical vapor deposition, and laser) are compared based on five salient performance criteria. A probabilistic rank ordering of preferred processes is determined using outranking normalization and a linear-weighted sum for different weighting scenarios including completely unknown weights and four fixed-weight sets representing hypothetical stakeholder views. No single process pathway dominates under all weight scenarios, but it is likely that some inferior process technologies could be identified as low priorities for further research.

  9. Natural Resource Information System. Volume 2: System operating procedures and instructions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    A total computer software system description is provided for the prototype Natural Resource Information System designed to store, process, and display data of maximum usefulness to land management decision making. Program modules are described, as are the computer file design, file updating methods, digitizing process, and paper tape conversion to magnetic tape. Operating instructions for the system, data output, printed output, and graphic output are also discussed.

  10. The Integration of Remote-Sensing Detection Techniques into the Operational Decision-Making of Marine Oil Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garron, J.; Trainor, S.

    2017-12-01

    Remotely-sensed data collected from satellites, airplanes and unmanned aerial systems can be used in marine oil spills to identify the overall footprint, estimate fate and transport, and to identify resources at risk. Mandates for the use of best available technology exists for addressing marine oil spills under the jurisdiction of the USCG (33 CFR 155.1050), though clear pathways to familiarization of these technologies during a marine oil spill, or more importantly, between marine oil spills, does not. Similarly, remote-sensing scientists continue to experiment with highly tuned oil detection, fate and transport techniques that can benefit decision-making during a marine oil spill response, but the process of translating these prototypical tools to operational information remains undefined, leading most researchers to describe the "potential" of these new tools in an operational setting rather than their actual use, and decision-makers relying on traditional field observational methods. Arctic marine oil spills are no different in their mandates and the remote-sensing research undertaken, but are unique via the dark, cold, remote, infrastructure-free environment in which they can occur. These conditions increase the reliance of decision-makers in an Arctic oil spill on remotely-sensed data and tools for their manipulation. In the absence of another large-scale oil spill in the US, and limited literature on the subject, this study was undertaken to understand how remotely-sensed data and tools are being used in the Incident Command System of a marine oil spill now, with an emphasis on Arctic implementation. Interviews, oil spill scenario/drill observations and marine oil spill after action reports were collected and analyzed to determine the current state of remote-sensing data use for decision-making during a marine oil spill, and to define a set of recommendations for the process of integrating new remote-sensing tools and information in future oil spill responses. Using automated synthetic aperture radar analyses of oil spills in a common operational picture as a scientific case study, this presentation is a demonstration of how landscape-level scientific data can be integrated into Arctic planning and operational decision-making.

  11. More steps towards process automation for optical fabrication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, David; Yu, Guoyu; Beaucamp, Anthony; Bibby, Matt; Li, Hongyu; McCluskey, Lee; Petrovic, Sanja; Reynolds, Christina

    2017-06-01

    In the context of Industrie 4.0, we have previously described the roles of robots in optical processing, and their complementarity with classical CNC machines, providing both processing and automation functions. After having demonstrated robotic moving of parts between a CNC polisher and metrology station, and auto-fringe-acquisition, we have moved on to automate the wash-down operation. This is part of a wider strategy we describe in this paper, leading towards automating the decision-making operations required before and throughout an optical manufacturing cycle.

  12. Realigning Shared Governance With Magnet® and the Organization's Operating System to Achieve Clinical Excellence.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Janette V; Girard, Anita S; Foad, Wendy

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, an academic medical center successfully overhauled a 15-year-old shared governance to align 6 house-wide and 30 unit-based councils with the new Magnet Recognition Program® and the organization's operating system, using the processes of LEAN methodology. The redesign improved cross-council communication structures, facilitated effective shared decision-making processes, increased staff engagement, and improved clinical outcomes. The innovative structural and process elements of the new model are replicable in other health institutions.

  13. Applications of fuzzy logic to control and decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.; Jani, Yashvant

    1991-01-01

    Long range space missions will require high operational efficiency as well as autonomy to enhance the effectivity of performance. Fuzzy logic technology has been shown to be powerful and robust in interpreting imprecise measurements and generating appropriate control decisions for many space operations. Several applications are underway, studying the fuzzy logic approach to solving control and decision making problems. Fuzzy logic algorithms for relative motion and attitude control have been developed and demonstrated for proximity operations. Based on this experience, motion control algorithms that include obstacle avoidance were developed for a Mars Rover prototype for maneuvering during the sample collection process. A concept of an intelligent sensor system that can identify objects and track them continuously and learn from its environment is under development to support traffic management and proximity operations around the Space Station Freedom. For safe and reliable operation of Lunar/Mars based crew quarters, high speed controllers with ability to combine imprecise measurements from several sensors is required. A fuzzy logic approach that uses high speed fuzzy hardware chips is being studied.

  14. [Decision Making Experience on Breast Reconstruction for Women with Breast Cancer].

    PubMed

    Yi, Myungsun; Joung, Woo Joung; Park, Eun Young; Kwon, Eun Jin; Kim, Haejin; Seo, Ji Young

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore decision making experiences of Korean women with breast cancer who underwent breast reconstruction with/after a mastectomy. Data were collected during 2015-2016 through individual in-depth interviews with 10 women who had both mastectomy and breast reconstruction, and analyzed using phenomenological method to identify essential themes on experiences of making a decision to have breast reconstruction. Five theme clusters emerged. First, "expected loss of sexuality and discovery of autonomy" illustrates various aims of breast reconstruction. Second, "holding tight to the reputation of doctors amid uncertainty" specifies the importance of a trust relationship with their physician despite a lack of information. Third, "family members to step back in position" describes support or opposition from family members in the decision making process. Fourth, "bewilderment due to the paradox of appearance-oriented views" illustrates paradoxical environment, resulting in confusion and anger. Lastly, "decision to be made quickly with limited time to oneself" describes the crazy whirling process of decision making. Findings highlight aims, worries, barriers, and facilitators that women with breast cancer experience when making a decision about breast reconstruction. Deciding on breast reconstruction was not only a burden for women in a state of shock with a diagnosis of breast cancer, but also an opportunity to decide to integrate their body, femininity, and self which might be wounded from a mastectomy. These findings will help oncology professionals provide effective educational counselling before the operation to promote higher satisfaction after the operation.

  15. Evaluation of Improved Pushback Forecasts Derived from Airline Ground Operations Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carr, Francis; Theis, Georg; Feron, Eric; Clarke, John-Paul

    2003-01-01

    Accurate and timely predictions of airline pushbacks can potentially lead to improved performance of automated decision-support tools for airport surface traffic, thus reducing the variability and average duration of costly airline delays. One factor which affects the realization of these benefits is the level of uncertainty inherent in the turn processes. To characterize this inherent uncertainty, three techniques are developed for predicting time-to-go until pushback as a function of available ground-time; elapsed ground-time; and the status (not-started/in-progress/completed) of individual turn processes (cleaning, fueling, etc.). These techniques are tested against a large and detailed dataset covering approximately l0(exp 4) real-world turn operations obtained through collaboration with Deutsche Lufthansa AG. Even after the dataset is filtered to obtain a sample of turn operations with minimal uncertainty, the standard deviation of forecast error for all three techniques is lower-bounded away from zero, indicating that turn operations have a significant stochastic component. This lower-bound result shows that decision-support tools must be designed to incorporate robust mechanisms for coping with pushback demand stochasticity, rather than treating the pushback demand process as a known deterministic input.

  16. A strategic value management approach for energy and maintenance management in a building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nawi, Mohd Nasrun Mohd; Dahlan, Nofri Yenita; Nadarajan, Santhirasegaran

    2015-05-01

    Fragmentation process is always been highlighted by the stakeholders in the construction industry as one of the `critical' issue that diminishing the opportunity for stakeholders that involved during the operation and maintenance stage to influence design decisions. Failure of design professionals to consider how a maintenance contractor or facility manager will construct the design thus results in higher operating cost, wastage, defects during the maintenance and operation process. Moving towards team integration is considered a significant strategy for overcoming the issue. Value Management is a style of management dedicated to guiding people and promoting innovation with the aim to improve overall building performance through structured, team-oriented exercises which make explicit, and appraise subsequent decisions, by reference to the value requirements of the clients. Accordingly, this paper discusses the fragmentation issue in more detail including the definition, causes and effects to the maintenance and operation of building and at the same time will highlighted the potential of VM integrated team approach as a strategic management approach for overcoming that issue. It also explores that the team integration strategy alleviates scheduling problems, delays and disputes during the construction process, and, hence, prevent harming the overall building performance.

  17. Information gathering, management and transfering for geospacial intelligence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, Paulo; Correia, Anacleto; Teodoro, M. Filomena

    2017-07-01

    Information is a key subject in modern organization operations. The success of joint and combined operations with organizations partners depends on the accurate information and knowledge flow concerning the operations theatre: provision of resources, environment evolution, markets location, where and when an event occurred. As in the past and nowadays we cannot conceive modern operations without maps and geo-spatial information (GI). Information and knowledge management is fundamental to the success of organizational decisions in an uncertainty environment. The georeferenced information management is a process of knowledge management, it begins in the raw data and ends on generating knowledge. GI and intelligence systems allow us to integrate all other forms of intelligence and can be a main platform to process and display geo-spatial-time referenced events. Combining explicit knowledge with peoples know-how to generate a continuous learning cycle that supports real time decisions mitigates the influences of fog of everyday competition and provides the knowledge supremacy. Extending the preliminary analysis done in [1], this work applies the exploratory factor analysis to a questionnaire about the GI and intelligence management in an organization company allowing to identify future lines of action to improve information process sharing and exploration of all the potential of this important resource.

  18. A VidEo-Based Intelligent Recognition and Decision System for the Phacoemulsification Cataract Surgery.

    PubMed

    Tian, Shu; Yin, Xu-Cheng; Wang, Zhi-Bin; Zhou, Fang; Hao, Hong-Wei

    2015-01-01

    The phacoemulsification surgery is one of the most advanced surgeries to treat cataract. However, the conventional surgeries are always with low automatic level of operation and over reliance on the ability of surgeons. Alternatively, one imaginative scene is to use video processing and pattern recognition technologies to automatically detect the cataract grade and intelligently control the release of the ultrasonic energy while operating. Unlike cataract grading in the diagnosis system with static images, complicated background, unexpected noise, and varied information are always introduced in dynamic videos of the surgery. Here we develop a Video-Based Intelligent Recognitionand Decision (VeBIRD) system, which breaks new ground by providing a generic framework for automatically tracking the operation process and classifying the cataract grade in microscope videos of the phacoemulsification cataract surgery. VeBIRD comprises a robust eye (iris) detector with randomized Hough transform to precisely locate the eye in the noise background, an effective probe tracker with Tracking-Learning-Detection to thereafter track the operation probe in the dynamic process, and an intelligent decider with discriminative learning to finally recognize the cataract grade in the complicated video. Experiments with a variety of real microscope videos of phacoemulsification verify VeBIRD's effectiveness.

  19. A VidEo-Based Intelligent Recognition and Decision System for the Phacoemulsification Cataract Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Xu-Cheng; Wang, Zhi-Bin; Zhou, Fang; Hao, Hong-Wei

    2015-01-01

    The phacoemulsification surgery is one of the most advanced surgeries to treat cataract. However, the conventional surgeries are always with low automatic level of operation and over reliance on the ability of surgeons. Alternatively, one imaginative scene is to use video processing and pattern recognition technologies to automatically detect the cataract grade and intelligently control the release of the ultrasonic energy while operating. Unlike cataract grading in the diagnosis system with static images, complicated background, unexpected noise, and varied information are always introduced in dynamic videos of the surgery. Here we develop a Video-Based Intelligent Recognitionand Decision (VeBIRD) system, which breaks new ground by providing a generic framework for automatically tracking the operation process and classifying the cataract grade in microscope videos of the phacoemulsification cataract surgery. VeBIRD comprises a robust eye (iris) detector with randomized Hough transform to precisely locate the eye in the noise background, an effective probe tracker with Tracking-Learning-Detection to thereafter track the operation probe in the dynamic process, and an intelligent decider with discriminative learning to finally recognize the cataract grade in the complicated video. Experiments with a variety of real microscope videos of phacoemulsification verify VeBIRD's effectiveness. PMID:26693249

  20. Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland.

    PubMed

    Gutrich, John; Donovan, Deanna; Finucane, Melissa; Focht, Will; Hitzhusen, Fred; Manopimoke, Supachit; McCauley, David; Norton, Bryan; Sabatier, Paul; Salzman, Jim; Sasmitawidjaja, Virza

    2005-08-01

    Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.

  1. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operations Research (OR), and Decision Support Systems (DSS): A conceptual framework

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parnell, Gregory S.; Rowell, William F.; Valusek, John R.

    1987-01-01

    In recent years there has been increasing interest in applying the computer based problem solving techniques of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operations Research (OR), and Decision Support Systems (DSS) to analyze extremely complex problems. A conceptual framework is developed for successfully integrating these three techniques. First, the fields of AI, OR, and DSS are defined and the relationships among the three fields are explored. Next, a comprehensive adaptive design methodology for AI and OR modeling within the context of a DSS is described. These observations are made: (1) the solution of extremely complex knowledge problems with ill-defined, changing requirements can benefit greatly from the use of the adaptive design process, (2) the field of DSS provides the focus on the decision making process essential for tailoring solutions to these complex problems, (3) the characteristics of AI, OR, and DSS tools appears to be converging rapidly, and (4) there is a growing need for an interdisciplinary AI/OR/DSS education.

  2. 23 CFR 450.208 - Coordination of planning process activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... RESEARCH PLANNING ASSISTANCE AND STANDARDS Statewide Transportation Planning and Programming § 450.208... transportation operators to support statewide transportation planning and programming priorities and decisions...

  3. 23 CFR 450.208 - Coordination of planning process activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... RESEARCH PLANNING ASSISTANCE AND STANDARDS Statewide Transportation Planning and Programming § 450.208... transportation operators to support statewide transportation planning and programming priorities and decisions...

  4. 23 CFR 450.208 - Coordination of planning process activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... RESEARCH PLANNING ASSISTANCE AND STANDARDS Statewide Transportation Planning and Programming § 450.208... transportation operators to support statewide transportation planning and programming priorities and decisions...

  5. Inputs requested from earth resources remote sensing data users regarding LANDSAT-C mission requirements and data needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    Inputs from prospective LANDSAT-C data users are requested to aid NASA in defining LANDSAT-C mission and data requirements and in making decisions regarding the scheduling of satellite operations and ground data processing operations. Design specifications, multispectral band scanner performance characteristics, satellite schedule operations, and types of available data products are briefly described.

  6. A Description of the DoD Test and Evaluation Process for Electronic Warfare Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-06-13

    Center J-MASS Joint Modeling and Simulation System A-2 MDA Milestone Decision Authority MNS Mission Need Statement MOE Measument of Effectivenes MOP...PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (PSYOP) Planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motive

  7. Surveillance system and method having an operating mode partitioned fault classification model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    A system and method which partitions a parameter estimation model, a fault detection model, and a fault classification model for a process surveillance scheme into two or more coordinated submodels together providing improved diagnostic decision making for at least one determined operating mode of an asset.

  8. Innovation, Technology and Decision Making: A Perspective for Strategic Action in Firms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mulenburg, Gerald M.

    2002-01-01

    Innovation, technology, and the making of decisions are tightly intertwined in what can generally be called, strategic decision making. Although true for all firms, it is especially true in innovative, high technology firms that operate in a turbulent, fast moving environment where strategic decisions must be made accurately and quickly to survive. This paper looks at some factors reported in the literature that affect how and why the strategic decision process is so important, especially in companies in fast-moving, competitive environments. The work of several prominent authors who looked critically at past theory and research, and the current state of knowledge and practice, provides a perspective of how firms make strategic decisions.

  9. Integrating SAR and derived products into operational volcano monitoring and decision support systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, F. J.; McAlpin, D. B.; Gong, W.; Ajadi, O.; Arko, S.; Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2015-02-01

    Remote sensing plays a critical role in operational volcano monitoring due to the often remote locations of volcanic systems and the large spatial extent of potential eruption pre-cursor signals. Despite the all-weather capabilities of radar remote sensing and its high performance in monitoring of change, the contribution of radar data to operational monitoring activities has been limited in the past. This is largely due to: (1) the high costs associated with radar data; (2) traditionally slow data processing and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling provided by spaceborne radars. With this paper, we present new data processing and data integration techniques that mitigate some of these limitations and allow for a meaningful integration of radar data into operational volcano monitoring decision support systems. Specifically, we present fast data access procedures as well as new approaches to multi-track processing that improve near real-time data access and temporal sampling of volcanic systems with SAR data. We introduce phase-based (coherent) and amplitude-based (incoherent) change detection procedures that are able to extract dense time series of hazard information from these data. For a demonstration, we present an integration of our processing system with an operational volcano monitoring system that was developed for use by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). Through an application to a historic eruption, we show that the integration of SAR into systems such as AVO can significantly improve the ability of operational systems to detect eruptive precursors. Therefore, the developed technology is expected to improve operational hazard detection, alerting, and management capabilities.

  10. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

  11. An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

    2004-01-01

    The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

  12. Eye tracking and pupillometry are indicators of dissociable latent decision processes.

    PubMed

    Cavanagh, James F; Wiecki, Thomas V; Kochar, Angad; Frank, Michael J

    2014-08-01

    Can you predict what people are going to do just by watching them? This is certainly difficult: it would require a clear mapping between observable indicators and unobservable cognitive states. In this report, we demonstrate how this is possible by monitoring eye gaze and pupil dilation, which predict dissociable biases during decision making. We quantified decision making using the drift diffusion model (DDM), which provides an algorithmic account of how evidence accumulation and response caution contribute to decisions through separate latent parameters of drift rate and decision threshold, respectively. We used a hierarchical Bayesian estimation approach to assess the single trial influence of observable physiological signals on these latent DDM parameters. Increased eye gaze dwell time specifically predicted an increased drift rate toward the fixated option, irrespective of the value of the option. In contrast, greater pupil dilation specifically predicted an increase in decision threshold during difficult decisions. These findings suggest that eye tracking and pupillometry reflect the operations of dissociated latent decision processes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. TAMU: A New Space Mission Operations Paradigm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Ruszkowski, James; Haensly, Jean; Pennington, Granvil A.; Hogle, Charles

    2011-01-01

    The Transferable, Adaptable, Modular and Upgradeable (TAMU) Flight Production Process (FPP) is a model-centric System of System (SoS) framework which cuts across multiple organizations and their associated facilities, that are, in the most general case, in geographically diverse locations, to develop the architecture and associated workflow processes for a broad range of mission operations. Further, TAMU FPP envisions the simulation, automatic execution and re-planning of orchestrated workflow processes as they become operational. This paper provides the vision for the TAMU FPP paradigm. This includes a complete, coherent technique, process and tool set that result in an infrastructure that can be used for full lifecycle design and decision making during any flight production process. A flight production process is the process of developing all products that are necessary for flight.

  14. Front-Line Physicians' Satisfaction with Information Systems in Hospitals.

    PubMed

    Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Junttila, Kristiina; Salanterä, Sanna

    2018-01-01

    Day-to-day operations management in hospital units is difficult due to continuously varying situations, several actors involved and a vast number of information systems in use. The aim of this study was to describe front-line physicians' satisfaction with existing information systems needed to support the day-to-day operations management in hospitals. A cross-sectional survey was used and data chosen with stratified random sampling were collected in nine hospitals. Data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The response rate was 65 % (n = 111). The physicians reported that information systems support their decision making to some extent, but they do not improve access to information nor are they tailored for physicians. The respondents also reported that they need to use several information systems to support decision making and that they would prefer one information system to access important information. Improved information access would better support physicians' decision making and has the potential to improve the quality of decisions and speed up the decision making process.

  15. A spiral model of musical decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bangert, Daniel; Schubert, Emery; Fabian, Dorottya

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1) and deliberate (Type 2) decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualizes this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning toward greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural), increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion toward the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans' (2011) Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory Hammond et al. (1987), Hammond (2007), Baylor's (2001) U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorizing how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  16. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Bangert, Daniel; Schubert, Emery; Fabian, Dorottya

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1) and deliberate (Type 2) decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualizes this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning toward greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural), increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion toward the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011) Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory Hammond et al. (1987), Hammond (2007), Baylor’s (2001) U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorizing how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally. PMID:24795673

  17. Evidence and Options for Informed Decision-Making to Achive Arctic Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkman, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will consider the development of evidence and options for informed decision-making that will need to operate across generations to achieve Arctic sustainability (Figure). Context of these Arctic decisions is global, recognizing that we live in an interconnected civilization on a planetary scale, as revealed unambiguously with evidence from the `world' wars in the first half of the 20thcentury. First, for clarification, data and evidence are not the same. Data is generated from information and observations to answer specific questions, posed with methods from the natural and social sciences as well as indigenous knowledge. These data reveal patterns and trends in our societies and natural world, underscoring the evidence for decisions to address impacts, issues and resources within, across and beyond the boundaries of nations - recognizing that nations still are the principal jurisdictional unit. However, for this decision-support process to be effective, options (without advocacy) - which can be used or ignored explicitly - must be generated from the evidence, taking into consideration stakeholder perspectives and governance records in a manner that will contribute to informed decision-making. The resulting decisions will involve built elements that require capitalization and technology as well as governance mechanisms coming from diverse jurisdictional authorities. The innovation required is to balance economic prosperity, environmental protection and societal well-being. These three pillars of sustainability further involve stability, balancing urgencies of the moment and of future generations, recognizing that children born today will be alive in the 22nd century. Consequently, options for informed decisions must operate across a continuum of urgencies from security time scales to sustainability time scales. This decision-support process is holistic (international, interdisciplinary and inclusive), reflecting the applications of science diplomacy to balance national interests and common interests for the benefit of all on Earth.

  18. Human-computer interface for the study of information fusion concepts in situation analysis and command decision support systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Jean; Breton, Richard; Paradis, Stephane

    2001-08-01

    Situation Awareness (SAW) is essential for commanders to conduct decision-making (DM) activities. Situation Analysis (SA) is defined as a process, the examination of a situation, its elements, and their relations, to provide and maintain a product, i.e., a state of SAW for the decision maker. Operational trends in warfare put the situation analysis process under pressure. This emphasizes the need for a real-time computer-based Situation analysis Support System (SASS) to aid commanders in achieving the appropriate situation awareness, thereby supporting their response to actual or anticipated threats. Data fusion is clearly a key enabler for SA and a SASS. Since data fusion is used for SA in support of dynamic human decision-making, the exploration of the SA concepts and the design of data fusion techniques must take into account human factor aspects in order to ensure a cognitive fit of the fusion system with the decision-maker. Indeed, the tight human factor aspects in order to ensure a cognitive fit of the fusion system with the decision-maker. Indeed, the tight integration of the human element with the SA technology is essential. Regarding these issues, this paper provides a description of CODSI (Command Decision Support Interface), and operational- like human machine interface prototype for investigations in computer-based SA and command decision support. With CODSI, one objective was to apply recent developments in SA theory and information display technology to the problem of enhancing SAW quality. It thus provides a capability to adequately convey tactical information to command decision makers. It also supports the study of human-computer interactions for SA, and methodologies for SAW measurement.

  19. Implications of the Naturalistic Decision Making Framework for Information Dominance.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-07-01

    Information Dominance , defined as an operational advantage obtained through superior effectiveness of informational activity. NDM is the study of how people use their experience to make decisions in field settings. Expertise was considered at both the individual and the team level of decision making. The report defines the components of expertise and identifies obstacles to the acquisition of Information Dominance . These obstacles include: (1) excessive data, (2) pre-processed data, (3) excessive procedures, (4) performing formal analyses, (5) passive

  20. The Insertion of Human Factors Concerns into NextGen Programmatic Decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beard, Bettina L.; Holbrook, Jon Brian; Seely, Rachel

    2013-01-01

    Since the costs of proposed improvements in air traffic management exceed available funding, FAA decision makers must select and prioritize what actually gets implemented. We discuss a set of methods to help forecast operational and human performance issues and benefits before new automation is introduced. This strategy could minimize the impact of politics, assist decision makers in selecting and prioritizing potential improvements, make the process more transparent and strengthen the link between the engineering and human factors domains.

  1. Integrated Nuclear and Conventional Theater Warfare Simulation (INWARS) Level III Specifications. Volume III. Air Combat Modeling.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-07-24

    will include an implicit air function that will perform the air planning and requesting associated with the various headquarters. The decision structure...air headquarters (The ATAF/TAA) will be included in the CIC to perform the implementation of the decisions /goals of the C21 elements, 1-4...realistic fashion. Once the AMPs have been formed, the operational process of launching, mission implementation etc. is no longer keyed to the decision cycle

  2. Acquisition of Inductive Biconditional Reasoning Skills: Training of Simultaneous and Sequential Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Seong-Soo

    1982-01-01

    Tenth-grade students (n=144) received training on one of three processing methods: coding-mapping (simultaneous), coding only, or decision tree (sequential). The induced simultaneous processing strategy worked optimally under rule learning, while the sequential strategy was difficult to induce and/or not optimal for rule-learning operations.…

  3. Analytical control test plan and microbiological methods for the water recovery test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Traweek, M. S. (Editor); Tatara, J. D. (Editor)

    1994-01-01

    Qualitative and quantitative laboratory results are important to the decision-making process. In some cases, they may represent the only basis for deciding between two or more given options or processes. Therefore, it is essential that handling of laboratory samples and analytical operations employed are performed at a deliberate level of conscientious effort. Reporting erroneous results can lead to faulty interpretations and result in misinformed decisions. This document provides analytical control specifications which will govern future test procedures related to all Water Recovery Test (WRT) Phase 3 activities to be conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC). This document addresses the process which will be used to verify analytical data generated throughout the test period, and to identify responsibilities of key personnel and participating laboratories, the chains of communication to be followed, and ensure that approved methodology and procedures are used during WRT activities. This document does not outline specifics, but provides a minimum guideline by which sampling protocols, analysis methodologies, test site operations, and laboratory operations should be developed.

  4. International online support to process optimisation and operation decisions.

    PubMed

    Onnerth, T B; Eriksson, J

    2002-01-01

    The information level at all technical facilities has developed from almost nothing 30-40 years ago to advanced IT--Information Technology--systems based on both chemical and mechanical on-line sensors for process and equipment. Still the basic part of information is to get the right data at the right time for the decision to be made. Today a large amount of operational data is available at almost any European wastewater treatment plant, from laboratory and SCADA. The difficult part is to determine which data to keep, which to use in calculations and how and where to make data available. With the STARcontrol system it is possible to separate only process relevant data to use for on-line control and reporting at engineering level, to optimise operation. Furthermore, the use of IT makes it possible to communicate internationally, with full access to the whole amount of data on the single plant. In this way, expert supervision can be both very local in local language e.g. Polish and at the same time very professional with Danish experts advising on Danish processes in Poland or Sweden where some of the 12 STARcontrol systems are running.

  5. 30 CFR 250.270 - What decisions will MMS make on the DPP or DOCD and within what timeframe?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ..., REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 250.270... provide monitoring information. (2) Require you to modify your proposed DPP or DOCD It fails to make...

  6. Automated control of hierarchical systems using value-driven methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pugh, George E.; Burke, Thomas E.

    1990-01-01

    An introduction is given to the Value-driven methodology, which has been successfully applied to solve a variety of difficult decision, control, and optimization problems. Many real-world decision processes (e.g., those encountered in scheduling, allocation, and command and control) involve a hierarchy of complex planning considerations. For such problems it is virtually impossible to define a fixed set of rules that will operate satisfactorily over the full range of probable contingencies. Decision Science Applications' value-driven methodology offers a systematic way of automating the intuitive, common-sense approach used by human planners. The inherent responsiveness of value-driven systems to user-controlled priorities makes them particularly suitable for semi-automated applications in which the user must remain in command of the systems operation. Three examples of the practical application of the approach in the automation of hierarchical decision processes are discussed: the TAC Brawler air-to-air combat simulation is a four-level computerized hierarchy; the autonomous underwater vehicle mission planning system is a three-level control system; and the Space Station Freedom electrical power control and scheduling system is designed as a two-level hierarchy. The methodology is compared with rule-based systems and with other more widely-known optimization techniques.

  7. INTELLIGENT DECISION SUPPORT FOR WASTE MINIMIZATION IN ELECTROPLATING PLANTS. (R824732)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract

    Wastewater, spent solvent, spent process solutions, and sludge are the major waste streams generated in large volumes daily in electroplating plants. These waste streams can be significantly minimized through process modification and operational improvement. I...

  8. Analytic and heuristic processing influences on adolescent reasoning and decision-making.

    PubMed

    Klaczynski, P A

    2001-01-01

    The normative/descriptive gap is the discrepancy between actual reasoning and traditional standards for reasoning. The relationship between age and the normative/descriptive gap was examined by presenting adolescents with a battery of reasoning and decision-making tasks. Middle adolescents (N = 76) performed closer to normative ideals than early adolescents (N = 66), although the normative/descriptive gap was large for both groups. Correlational analyses revealed that (1) normative responses correlated positively with each other, (2) nonnormative responses were positively interrelated, and (3) normative and nonnormative responses were largely independent. Factor analyses suggested that performance was based on two processing systems. The "analytic" system operates on "decontextualized" task representations and underlies conscious, computational reasoning. The "heuristic" system operates on "contextualized," content-laden representations and produces "cognitively cheap" responses that sometimes conflict with traditional norms. Analytic processing was more clearly linked to age and to intelligence than heuristic processing. Implications for cognitive development, the competence/performance issue, and rationality are discussed.

  9. A further test of sequential-sampling models that account for payoff effects on response bias in perceptual decision tasks.

    PubMed

    Diederich, Adele

    2008-02-01

    Recently, Diederich and Busemeyer (2006) evaluated three hypotheses formulated as particular versions of a sequential-sampling model to account for the effects of payoffs in a perceptual decision task with time constraints. The bound-change hypothesis states that payoffs affect the distance of the starting position of the decision process to each decision bound. The drift-rate-change hypothesis states that payoffs affect the drift rate of the decision process. The two-stage-processing hypothesis assumes two processes, one for processing payoffs and another for processing stimulus information, and that on a given trial, attention switches from one process to the other. The latter hypothesis gave the best account of their data. The present study investigated two questions: (1) Does the experimental setting influence decisions, and consequently affect the fits of the hypotheses? A task was conducted in two experimental settings--either the time limit or the payoff matrix was held constant within a given block of trials, using three different payoff matrices and four different time limits--in order to answer this question. (2) Could it be that participants neglect payoffs on some trials and stimulus information on others? To investigate this idea, a further hypothesis was considered, the mixture-of-processes hypothesis. Like the two-stage-processing hypothesis, it postulates two processes, one for payoffs and another for stimulus information. However, it differs from the previous hypothesis in assuming that on a given trial exactly one of the processes operates, never both. The present design had no effect on choice probability but may have affected choice response times (RTs). Overall, the two-stage-processing hypothesis gave the best account, with respect both to choice probabilities and to observed mean RTs and mean RT patterns within a choice pair.

  10. Value of Information and Prospect theory as tools to involve decision-makers in water-related design, operation and planning of water systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfonso, Leonardo

    2013-04-01

    The role of decision-makers is to take the outputs from hydrological and hydraulic analyses and, in some extent, use them as inputs to make decisions that are related to planning, design and operation of water systems. However, the use of these technical analyses is frequently limited, since there are other non-hydrological issues that must be considered, that may end up in very different solutions than those envisaged by the purely technical ones. A possibility to account for the nature of the human decisions under uncertainty is by exploring the use of concepts from decision theory and behavioural economics, such as Value of Information and Prospect Theory and embed them into the methodologies we use in the hydrology practice. Three examples are presented to illustrate these multidisciplinary interactions. The first one, for monitoring network design, uses Value of Information within a methodology to locate water level stations in a complex canal of networks in the Netherlands. The second example, for operation, shows how the Value of Information concept can be used to formulate alternative methods to evaluate flood risk according to the set of options available for decision-making during a flood event. The third example, for planning, uses Prospect Theory concepts to understand how the "losses hurt more than gains feel good" effect can determine the final decision of urbanise or not a flood-prone area. It is demonstrated that decision theory and behavioural economic principles are promising to evaluate the complex decision-making process in water-related issues.

  11. Potential mechanisms contributing to decision-making difficulties in late adulthood.

    PubMed

    McCarrey, Anna C; Henry, Julie D; Luszcz, Mary

    2010-01-01

    This paper critiques Brand and Markowitsch's viewpoint that the decision-making difficulties experienced by older adults during laboratory-based gambling tasks can be attributed to deficits in executive control and feedback operations. While Brand and Markowitsch provide an important platform with which to understand the role of these specific component processes, there are other additional mechanisms that also seem likely to be important when understanding gambling decisions in late adulthood. We focus on several of these mechanisms, and in particular, the manner in which decision-relevant information is received, the role of changes in emotion and motivation (with particular reference to Socioemotional Selectivity Theory), and changes in autobiographical memory that may affect understanding how decision-making during gambling occurs in late adulthood. By building on the cognitive-based and emotion-based processes that Brand and Markowitsch mention as important in decision-making by the aged, our critique highlights avenues for future research in this important area. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Ag2S atomic switch-based `tug of war' for decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutz, C.; Hasegawa, T.; Chikyow, T.

    2016-07-01

    For a computing process such as making a decision, a software controlled chip of several transistors is necessary. Inspired by how a single cell amoeba decides its movements, the theoretical `tug of war' computing model was proposed but not yet implemented in an analogue device suitable for integrated circuits. Based on this model, we now developed a new electronic element for decision making processes, which will have no need for prior programming. The devices are based on the growth and shrinkage of Ag filaments in α-Ag2+δS gap-type atomic switches. Here we present the adapted device design and the new materials. We demonstrate the basic `tug of war' operation by IV-measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observation. These devices could be the base for a CMOS-free new computer architecture.For a computing process such as making a decision, a software controlled chip of several transistors is necessary. Inspired by how a single cell amoeba decides its movements, the theoretical `tug of war' computing model was proposed but not yet implemented in an analogue device suitable for integrated circuits. Based on this model, we now developed a new electronic element for decision making processes, which will have no need for prior programming. The devices are based on the growth and shrinkage of Ag filaments in α-Ag2+δS gap-type atomic switches. Here we present the adapted device design and the new materials. We demonstrate the basic `tug of war' operation by IV-measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observation. These devices could be the base for a CMOS-free new computer architecture. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr00690f

  13. A game theory perspective on environmental assessment: What games are played and what does this tell us about decision making rationality and legitimacy?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bond, Alan; Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University; Pope, Jenny

    Game theory provides a useful theoretical framework to examine the decision process operating in the context of environmental assessment, and to examine the rationality and legitimacy of decision-making subject to Environmental Assessment (EA). The research uses a case study of the Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal processes undertaken in England. To these are applied an analytical framework, based on the concept of decision windows to identify the decisions to be assessed. The conditions for legitimacy are defined, based on game theory, in relation to the timing of decision information, the behaviour type (competitive, reciprocal, equity) exhibited by the decisionmore » maker, and the level of public engagement; as, together, these control the type of rationality which can be brought to bear on the decision. Instrumental rationality is based on self-interest of individuals, whereas deliberative rationality seeks broader consensus and is more likely to underpin legitimate decisions. The results indicate that the Sustainability Appraisal process, conducted at plan level, is better than EIA, conducted at project level, but still fails to provide conditions that facilitate legitimacy. Game theory also suggests that Sustainability Appraisal is likely to deliver ‘least worst’ outcomes rather than best outcomes when the goals of the assessment process are considered; this may explain the propensity of such ‘least worst’ decisions in practise. On the basis of what can be learned from applying this game theory perspective, it is suggested that environmental assessment processes need to be redesigned and better integrated into decision making in order to guarantee the legitimacy of the decisions made. - Highlights: • Decision legitimacy is defined in terms of game theory. • Game theory is applied to EIA and SA decision windows. • Game theory suggests least worst outcomes prevail. • SA is more likely to be perceived legitimate than EIA.« less

  14. NASA Applied Sciences Program Rapid Prototyping Results and Conclusions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, E. L.

    2007-12-01

    NASA's Applied Sciences Program seeks to expand the use of Earth science research results to benefit current and future operational systems tasked with making policy and management decisions. The Earth Science Division within the Science Mission Directorate sponsors over 1000 research projects annually to answer the fundamental research question: How is the Earth changing and what are the consequences for life on Earth? As research results become available, largely from satellite observations and Earth system model outputs, the Applied Sciences Program works diligently with scientists and researchers (internal and external to NASA) , and other government agency officials (USDA, EPA, CDC, DOE, US Forest Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, DHS, USAID) to determine useful applications for these results in decision-making, ultimately benefiting society. The complexity of Earth science research results and the breadth of the Applied Sciences Program national priority areas dictate a broad scope and multiple approaches available to implement their use in decision-making. Over the past five years, the Applied Sciences Program has examined scientific and engineering practices and solicited the community for methods and steps that can lead to the enhancement of operational systems (Decision Support Systems - DSS) required for decision-making. In November 2006, the Applied Sciences Program launched an initiative aimed at demonstrating the applicability of NASA data (satellite observations, models, geophysical parameters from data archive centers) being incorporated into decision support systems and their related environments at a low cost and quick turnaround of results., i.e. designed rapid prototyping. Conceptually, an understanding of Earth science research (and results) coupled with decision-making requirements and needs leads to a demonstration (experiment) depicting enhancements or improvements to an operational decisions process through the use of NASA data. Five NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, SSC, MSFC, ARC) participated and are currently conducting fifteen prototyping experiments covering eight of the twelve national priority applications - Energy, Coastal, Carbon, and Disaster Management; Agricultural Efficiency, Aviation, Air Quality, and Ecological Forecasting. Results from six experiments will be discussed highlighting purpose, expected results, enhancement to the decision-making process achieved, and the potential plans for future collaboration and sustainable projects.

  15. Commercial Flight Crew Decision-Making during Low-Visibility Approach Operations Using Fused Synthetic/Enhanced Vision Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kramer, Lynda J.; Bailey, Randall E.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III

    2007-01-01

    NASA is investigating revolutionary crew-vehicle interface technologies that strive to proactively overcome aircraft safety barriers that would otherwise constrain the full realization of the next-generation air transportation system. A fixed-based piloted simulation experiment was conducted to evaluate the complementary use of Synthetic and Enhanced Vision technologies. Specific focus was placed on new techniques for integration and/or fusion of Enhanced and Synthetic Vision and its impact within a two-crew flight deck on the crew's decision-making process during low-visibility approach and landing operations. Overall, the experimental data showed that significant improvements in situation awareness, without concomitant increases in workload and display clutter, could be provided by the integration and/or fusion of synthetic and enhanced vision technologies for the pilot-flying and the pilot-not-flying. During non-normal operations, the ability of the crew to handle substantial navigational errors and runway incursions were neither improved nor adversely impacted by the display concepts. The addition of Enhanced Vision may not, unto itself, provide an improvement in runway incursion detection without being specifically tailored for this application. Existing enhanced vision system procedures were effectively used in the crew decision-making process during approach and missed approach operations but having to forcibly transition from an excellent FLIR image to natural vision by 100 ft above field level was awkward for the pilot-flying.

  16. The use of a multidimensional space for fusion candidate representation in a maritime domain awareness application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefebvre, Eric; Helleur, Christopher; Kashyap, Nathan

    2008-03-01

    Maritime surveillance of coastal regions requires operational staff to integrate a large amount of information from a variety of military and civilian sources. The diverse nature of the information sources makes complete automation difficult. The volume of vessels tracked and the number of sources makes it difficult for the limited operation centre staff to fuse all the information manually within a reasonable timeframe. In this paper, a conceptual decision space is proposed to provide a framework for automating the process of operators integrating the sources needed to maintain Maritime Domain Awareness. The decision space contains all potential pairs of ship tracks that are candidates for fusion. The location of the candidate pairs in this defined space depends on the value of the parameters used to make a decision. In the application presented, three independent parameters are used: the source detection efficiency, the geo-feasibility, and the track quality. One of three decisions is applied to each candidate track pair based on these three parameters: 1. to accept the fusion, in which case tracks are fused in one track, 2. to reject the fusion, in which case the candidate track pair is removed from the list of potential fusion, and 3. to defer the fusion, in which case no fusion occurs but the candidate track pair remains in the list of potential fusion until sufficient information is provided. This paper demonstrates in an operational setting how a proposed conceptual space is used to optimize the different thresholds for automatic fusion decision while minimizing the list of unresolved cases when the decision is left to the operator.

  17. Give Design a Chance: A Case for a Human Centered Approach to Operational Art

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-30

    strategy development and operational art. This demands fuller integration of the Army Design Methodology (ADM) and the Military Decision Making Process...MDMP). This monograph proposes a way of thinking and planning that goes beyond current Army doctrinal methodologies to address the changing...between conceptual and detailed planning. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Design; Army Design Methodology (ADM); Human Centered; Strategy; Operational Art

  18. Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mantziaras, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

  19. Group Decision Making Based on Heronian Aggregation Operators of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers.

    PubMed

    Liu, Peide; Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Archimedean t -conorm and t -norm provide the general operational rules for intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs). The aggregation operators based on them can generalize most of the existing aggregation operators. At the same time, the Heronian mean (HM) has a significant advantage of considering interrelationships between the attributes. Therefore, it is very necessary to extend the HM based on IFNs and to construct intuitionistic fuzzy HM operators based on the Archimedean t -conorm and t -norm. In this paper, we first discuss intuitionistic fuzzy operational rules based on the Archimedean t -conorm and t -norm. Then, we propose the intuitionistic fuzzy Archimedean Heronian aggregation (IFAHA) operator and the intuitionistic fuzzy weight Archimedean Heronian aggregation (IFWAHA) operator. We also further discuss some properties and some special cases of these new operators. Moreover, we also propose a new multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) method based on the proposed IFAHA operator and the proposed IFWAHA operator. Finally, we use an illustrative example to show the MAGDM processes and to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed method.

  20. Operator performance evaluation using multi criteria decision making methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rani, Ruzanita Mat; Ismail, Wan Rosmanira; Razali, Siti Fatihah

    2014-06-01

    Operator performance evaluation is a very important operation in labor-intensive manufacturing industry because the company's productivity depends on the performance of its operators. The aims of operator performance evaluation are to give feedback to operators on their performance, to increase company's productivity and to identify strengths and weaknesses of each operator. In this paper, six multi criteria decision making methods; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy AHP (FAHP), ELECTRE, PROMETHEE II, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are used to evaluate the operators' performance and to rank the operators. The performance evaluation is based on six main criteria; competency, experience and skill, teamwork and time punctuality, personal characteristics, capability and outcome. The study was conducted at one of the SME food manufacturing companies in Selangor. From the study, it is found that AHP and FAHP yielded the "outcome" criteria as the most important criteria. The results of operator performance evaluation showed that the same operator is ranked the first using all six methods.

  1. The Design and Implementation of INGRES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stonebraker, Michael; And Others

    The currently operational version of the INGRES data base management system gives a relational view of data, supports two high level, non-procedural data sublanguages, and runs as a collection of user processes on top of a UNIX operating system. The authors stress the design decisions and tradeoffs in relation to (1) structuring the system into…

  2. Superfund Record of Decision (EPA Region 8): Anaconda Smelter site, (Operable Unit 11 - Flue Dust), Deer Lodge County, Anaconda, MT. (Second remedial action), September 1991

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1991-09-23

    The 6,000-acre Anaconda Smelter site is a former copper and ore processing facility in Deer Lodge County, Montana. Land use in the area is predominantly residential. The site is bounded on the north and east, respectively, by the Warm Springs Creek and Mill Creek, both of which are potential sources of drinking water. From 1884 until 1980 when activities ceased, the site was used for ore processing and smelting operations. In 1988, EPA conducted an investigation to determine the nature and extent of the flue dust contamination. A 1988 ROD addressed the Mill Creek Operable Unit (OU15) and documented themore » relocation of residents from the community surrounding the smelter site as the selected remedial action. The Record of Decision (ROD) addresses the Flue Dust Operable Unit (OU11). The primary contaminants of concern affecting this site from the flue dust materials are metals including arsenic, cadmium, and lead. The selected remedial action for the site is included.« less

  3. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Collaborative Model for Accelerating Research into Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; Jedlovec, G.; Dodge, J.; Bradshaw, T.

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

  4. Multi-criteria GIS-based siting of an incineration plant for municipal solid waste.

    PubMed

    Tavares, Gilberto; Zsigraiová, Zdena; Semiao, Viriato

    2011-01-01

    Siting a municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration plant requires a comprehensive evaluation to identify the best available location(s) that can simultaneously meet the requirements of regulations and minimise economic, environmental, health, and social costs. A spatial multi-criteria evaluation methodology is presented to assess land suitability for a plant siting and applied to Santiago Island of Cape Verde. It combines the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to estimate the selected evaluation criteria weights with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial data analysis that avoids the subjectivity of the judgements of decision makers in establishing the influences between some criteria or clusters of criteria. An innovative feature of the method lies in incorporating the environmental impact assessment of the plant operation as a criterion in the decision-making process itself rather than as an a posteriori assessment. Moreover, a two-scale approach is considered. At a global scale an initial screening identifies inter-municipal zones satisfying the decisive requirements (socio-economic, technical and environmental issues, with weights respectively, of 48%, 41% and 11%). A detailed suitability ranking inside the previously identified zones is then performed at a local scale in two phases and includes environmental assessment of the plant operation. Those zones are ranked by combining the non-environmental feasibility of Phase 1 (with a weight of 75%) with the environmental assessment of the plant operation impact of Phase 2 (with a weight of 25%). The reliability and robustness of the presented methodology as a decision supporting tool is assessed through a sensitivity analysis. The results proved the system effectiveness in the ranking process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

    2017-12-01

    The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

  6. A Sensemaking Perspective on Situation Awareness in Power Grid Operations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Schur, Anne; Paget, Mia L.

    2008-07-21

    With increasing complexity and interconnectivity of the electric power grid, the scope and complexity of grid operations continues to grow. New paradigms are needed to guide research to improve operations by enhancing situation awareness of operators. Research on human factors/situation awareness is described within a taxonomy of tools and approaches that address different levels of cognitive processing. While user interface features and visualization approaches represent the predominant focus of human factors studies of situation awareness, this paper argues that a complementary level, sensemaking, deserves further consideration by designers of decision support systems for power grid operations. A sensemaking perspective onmore » situation aware-ness may reveal new insights that complement ongoing human factors research, where the focus of the investigation of errors is to understand why the decision makers experienced the situation the way they did, or why what they saw made sense to them at the time.« less

  7. A decision modeling for phasor measurement unit location selection in smart grid systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Seung Yup

    As a key technology for enhancing the smart grid system, Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) provides synchronized phasor measurements of voltages and currents of wide-area electric power grid. With various benefits from its application, one of the critical issues in utilizing PMUs is the optimal site selection of units. The main aim of this research is to develop a decision support system, which can be used in resource allocation task for smart grid system analysis. As an effort to suggest a robust decision model and standardize the decision modeling process, a harmonized modeling framework, which considers operational circumstances of component, is proposed in connection with a deterministic approach utilizing integer programming. With the results obtained from the optimal PMU placement problem, the advantages and potential that the harmonized modeling process possesses are assessed and discussed.

  8. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

  9. Benefits to blood banks of a sales and operations planning process.

    PubMed

    Keal, Donald A; Hebert, Phil

    2010-12-01

    A formal sales and operations planning (S&OP) process is a decision making and communication process that balances supply and demand while integrating all business operational components with customer-focused business plans that links high level strategic plans to day-to-day operations. Furthermore, S&OP can assist in managing change across the organization as it provides the opportunity to be proactive in the face of problems and opportunities while establishing a plan for everyone to follow. Some of the key outcomes from a robust S&OP process in blood banking would include: higher customer satisfaction (donors and health care providers), balanced inventory across product lines and customers, more stable production rates and higher productivity, more cooperation across the entire operation, and timely updates to the business plan resulting in better forecasting and fewer surprises that negatively impact the bottom line. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

  10. 7 CFR 1486.207 - What is the Technical Issues Resolution Fund?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... strategic areas of longer term interest. Funding decisions are determined primarily through a review process... CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS EMERGING MARKETS...

  11. Measuring, managing and maximizing refinery performance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bascur, O.A.; Kennedy, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    Implementing continuous quality improvement is a confluence of total quality management, people empowerment, performance indicators and information engineering. Supporting information technologies allow a refiner to narrow the gap between management objectives and the process control level. Dynamic performance monitoring benefits come from production cost savings, improved communications and enhanced decision making. A refinery workgroup information flow model helps automate continuous improvement of processes, performance and the organization. The paper discusses the rethinking of refinery operations, dynamic performance monitoring, continuous process improvement, the knowledge coordinator and repository manager, an integrated plant operations workflow, and successful implementation.

  12. Program management aid for redundancy selection and operational guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hodge, P. W.; Davis, W. L.; Frumkin, B.

    1972-01-01

    Although this criterion was developed specifically for use on the shuttle program, it has application to many other multi-missions programs (i.e. aircraft or mechanisms). The methodology employed is directly applicable even if the tools (nomographs and equations) are for mission peculiar cases. The redundancy selection criterion was developed to insure that both the design and operational cost impacts (life cycle costs) were considered in the selection of the quantity of operational redundancy. These tools were developed as aids in expediting the decision process and not intended as the automatic decision maker. This approach to redundancy selection is unique in that it enables a pseudo systems analysis to be performed on an equipment basis without waiting for all designs to be hardened.

  13. Using Visualization in Cockpit Decision Support Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aragon, Cecilia R.

    2005-01-01

    In order to safely operate their aircraft, pilots must make rapid decisions based on integrating and processing large amounts of heterogeneous information. Visual displays are often the most efficient method of presenting safety-critical data to pilots in real time. However, care must be taken to ensure the pilot is provided with the appropriate amount of information to make effective decisions and not become cognitively overloaded. The results of two usability studies of a prototype airflow hazard visualization cockpit decision support system are summarized. The studies demonstrate that such a system significantly improves the performance of helicopter pilots landing under turbulent conditions. Based on these results, design principles and implications for cockpit decision support systems using visualization are presented.

  14. Method and apparatus for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    de Weck, Olivier (Inventor); Silver, Matthew (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A method, apparatus and computer program for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network is presented. A set of potential system configurations is defined. Next, switching costs are quantified to create a "static network" that captures the difficulty of switching among these configurations. A time-expanded decision network is provided by expanding the static network in time, including chance and decision nodes. Minimum cost paths through the network are evaluated under plausible operating scenarios. The set of initial design configurations are iteratively modified to exploit high-leverage switches and the process is repeated to convergence. Time-expanded decision networks are applicable, but not limited to, the design of systems, products, services and contracts.

  15. Virtual strain gage size study

    DOE PAGES

    Reu, Phillip L.

    2015-09-22

    DIC is a non-linear low-pass spatial filtering operation; whether we consider the effect of the subset and shape function, the strain window used in the strain calculation, of other post-processing of the results, each decision will impact the spatial resolution, of the measurement. More fundamentally, the speckle size limits, the spatial resolution by dictating the smallest possible subset. After this decision the processing settings are controlled by the allowable noise level balanced by possible bias errors created by the data filtering. This article describes a process to determine optimum DIC software settings to determine if the peak displacements or strainsmore » are being found.« less

  16. 75 FR 219 - Availability of Funds and Collection of Checks

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-05

    ... banks in identifying local and nonlocal checks and making funds availability decisions, the Board is... restructuring of check-processing operations within the Federal Reserve System. Subsequent to these amendments, there will only be a single check- processing region for purposes of Regulation CC and there will no...

  17. US Military Presence in Latin America: Making the Manta Forward Operating Location work

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-09-01

    actors in the decision making process and the actors’ policy preferences and determine how they group themselves in this policy area and interact......between Peru’s growing areas and Colombia’s processing plants.22 The riverine efforts responded to concerns that drug traffickers would shift smuggling

  18. Sustainable aggregate production planning in the chemical process industry - A benchmark problem and dataset.

    PubMed

    Brandenburg, Marcus; Hahn, Gerd J

    2018-06-01

    Process industries typically involve complex manufacturing operations and thus require adequate decision support for aggregate production planning (APP). The need for powerful and efficient approaches to solve complex APP problems persists. Problem-specific solution approaches are advantageous compared to standardized approaches that are designed to provide basic decision support for a broad range of planning problems but inadequate to optimize under consideration of specific settings. This in turn calls for methods to compare different approaches regarding their computational performance and solution quality. In this paper, we present a benchmarking problem for APP in the chemical process industry. The presented problem focuses on (i) sustainable operations planning involving multiple alternative production modes/routings with specific production-related carbon emission and the social dimension of varying operating rates and (ii) integrated campaign planning with production mix/volume on the operational level. The mutual trade-offs between economic, environmental and social factors can be considered as externalized factors (production-related carbon emission and overtime working hours) as well as internalized ones (resulting costs). We provide data for all problem parameters in addition to a detailed verbal problem statement. We refer to Hahn and Brandenburg [1] for a first numerical analysis based on and for future research perspectives arising from this benchmarking problem.

  19. Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

    PubMed

    Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

    2016-09-01

    To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Nepal's Health Facility Operation and Management Committees: exploring community participation and influence in the Dang district's primary care clinics.

    PubMed

    Gurung, Gagan; Derrett, Sarah; Hill, Philip C; Gauld, Robin

    2018-01-28

    Aim To describe community representation in Nepal's Health Facility Operation and Management Committees (HFMCs) and the degree of influence of community representatives in the HFMC decision-making processes. Community participation has been recognised as one of the key components for the successful implementation of primary health care (PHC) strategies, following the 1978 Declaration of Alma-Ata. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), HFMCs are now widely considered as a mechanism to increase community participation in health through community representation. There is some research examining the implementation process, impact and factors affecting the effectiveness of HFMCs. Despite the documented evidence of the importance of factors such as adequate representation, links with wider community, and decision-making power, there is limited evidence about the nature of community representation and degree of decision making within HFMCs in the PHC setting, particularly in LMICs. Qualitative interviews with 39 key informants were held to explore different aspects of community representation in HFMCs, and the influence of the HFMC on health facility decision-making processes. In addition, a facility audit at 22 facilities and review of HFMC meeting minutes at six health facilities were conducted. Findings There were Dalit (a marginalised caste) and Janajati (an ethnic group) representations in 77% and 100% of the committees, respectively. Likewise, there were at least two female members in each committee. However, the HFMC member selection process and decision making within the committees were influenced by powerful elites. The degree of participation through HFMCs appeared to be at the 'Manipulation' and 'Informing' stage of Arnstein's ladder of participation. In conclusion, despite representation of the community on HFMCs, the depth of participation seems low. There is a need to ensure a democratic selection process of committee members; and to expand the depth of participation.

  1. Analysis and Modeling of Ground Operations at Hub Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atkins, Stephen (Technical Monitor); Andersson, Kari; Carr, Francis; Feron, Eric; Hall, William D.

    2000-01-01

    Building simple and accurate models of hub airports can considerably help one understand airport dynamics, and may provide quantitative estimates of operational airport improvements. In this paper, three models are proposed to capture the dynamics of busy hub airport operations. Two simple queuing models are introduced to capture the taxi-out and taxi-in processes. An integer programming model aimed at representing airline decision-making attempts to capture the dynamics of the aircraft turnaround process. These models can be applied for predictive purposes. They may also be used to evaluate control strategies for improving overall airport efficiency.

  2. Offset quadrature communications with decision-feedback carrier synchronization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, M. K.; Smith, J. G.

    1974-01-01

    In order to accommodate a quadrature amplitude-shift-keyed (QASK) signal, Simon and Smith (1974) have modified the decision-feedback loop which tracks a quadrature phase-shift-keyed (QPSK). In the investigation reported approaches are considered to modify the loops in such a way that offset QASK signals can be tracked, giving attention to the special case of an offset QPSK. The development of the stochastic integro-differential equation of operation for a decision-feedback offset QASK loop is discussed along with the probability density function of the phase error process.

  3. Operator Performance Measures for Assessing Voice Communication Effectiveness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-01

    performance and work- load assessment techniques have been based.I Broadbent (1958) described a limited capacity filter model of human information...INFORMATION PROCESSING 20 3.1.1. Auditory Attention 20 3.1.2. Auditory Memory 24 3.2. MODELS OF INFORMATION PROCESSING 24 3.2.1. Capacity Theories 25...Learning 0 Attention * Language Specialization • Decision Making• Problem Solving Auditory Information Processing Models of Processing Ooemtor

  4. Decision making as a window on cognition.

    PubMed

    Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

    2013-10-30

    A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. P1198: software for tracing decision behavior in lending to small businesses.

    PubMed

    Andersson, P

    2001-05-01

    This paper describes a process-tracing software program specially designed to capture decision behavior in lending to small businesses. The source code was written in Lotus Notes. The software runs in a Web browser and consists of two interacting systems: a database and a user interface. The database includes three realistic loan applications. The user interface consists of different but interacting screens that enable the participant to operate the software. Log files register the decision behavior of the participant. An empirical example is presented in order to show the software's potential in providing insights into judgment and decision making. The implications of the software are discussed.

  6. Ideas Tried, Lessons Learned, and Improvements to Make: A Journey in Moving a Spreadsheet-Intensive Course Online

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berardi, Victor L.

    2012-01-01

    Using information systems to solve business problems is increasingly required of everyone in an organization, not just technical specialists. In the operations management class, spreadsheet usage has intensified with the focus on building decision models to solve operations management concerns such as forecasting, process capability, and inventory…

  7. 49 CFR 92.41 - Requesting recovery when the Department is not the paying agency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... processs of separating. If the employee is in the process of separating, the DOT creditor operating element... paying agency. (a) Format of the request for recovery. (1) Where the DOT operating element is the..., attach a copy of the decision of the administrative law judge or other hearing official. The DOT creditor...

  8. Probabilistic Weather Information Tailored to the Needs of Transmission System Operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberts, I.; Stauch, V.; Lee, D.; Hagedorn, R.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable and accurate forecasts for wind and photovoltaic (PV) power production are essential for stable transmission systems. A high potential for improving the wind and PV power forecasts lies in optimizing the weather forecasts, since these energy sources are highly weather dependent. For this reason the main objective of the German research project EWeLiNE is to improve the quality the underlying numerical weather predictions towards energy operations. In this project, the German Meteorological Service (DWD), the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology, and three of the German transmission system operators (TSOs) are working together to improve the weather and power forecasts. Probabilistic predictions are of particular interest, as the quantification of uncertainties provides an important tool for risk management. Theoretical considerations suggest that it can be advantageous to use probabilistic information to represent and respond to the remaining uncertainties in the forecasts. However, it remains a challenge to integrate this information into the decision making processes related to market participation and power systems operations. The project is planned and carried out in close cooperation with the involved TSOs in order to ensure the usability of the products developed. It will conclude with a demonstration phase, in which the improved models and newly developed products are combined into a process chain and used to provide information to TSOs in a real-time decision support tool. The use of a web-based development platform enables short development cycles and agile adaptation to evolving user needs. This contribution will present the EWeLiNE project and discuss ideas on how to incorporate probabilistic information into the users' current decision making processes.

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes - application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez, A. G.; García Alba, J.; Puente, A.; Juanes, J. A.

    2014-04-01

    A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitability of the developed methodology and the conceptual approaches as a comprehensive and practical management tool.

  10. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine and Radiation Oncology

    PubMed Central

    Weidlich, Vincent

    2018-01-01

    Artifical Intelligence (AI) was reviewed with a focus on its potential applicability to radiation oncology. The improvement of process efficiencies and the prevention of errors were found to be the most significant contributions of AI to radiation oncology. It was found that the prevention of errors is most effective when data transfer processes were automated and operational decisions were based on logical or learned evaluations by the system. It was concluded that AI could greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of radiation oncology operations. PMID:29904616

  11. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine and Radiation Oncology.

    PubMed

    Weidlich, Vincent; Weidlich, Georg A

    2018-04-13

    Artifical Intelligence (AI) was reviewed with a focus on its potential applicability to radiation oncology. The improvement of process efficiencies and the prevention of errors were found to be the most significant contributions of AI to radiation oncology. It was found that the prevention of errors is most effective when data transfer processes were automated and operational decisions were based on logical or learned evaluations by the system. It was concluded that AI could greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of radiation oncology operations.

  12. Membrane Bioreactor/Ultra Low Energy Reverse Osmosis Membrane Process for Forward Operating Base Wastewater Reuse

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-01

    of the GEGR pilot membrane coater; b) configuration of the coating station; and c) web path of the dip-knife coating process for RO membrane...Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy EPA Environmental Protection Agency F:M Food-To-Microorganism Ratio FOB Forward Operating Base FT- IR Fourier...report 03/2014 3.3 Submit draft Interim report/Go No-Go decision point white paper 05/2013 3.4 Submit final report 05/2014 3.5 Final debrief

  13. Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average.

    PubMed

    Gorsevski, Pece V; Donevska, Katerina R; Mitrovski, Cvetko D; Frizado, Joseph P

    2012-02-01

    This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caillol, Marie-Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

  15. Radio astronomy Explorer-B in-flight mission control system development effort

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lutsky, D. A.; Bjorkman, W. S.; Uphoff, C.

    1973-01-01

    A description is given of the development for the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations (MAESTRO) program to be used for the in-flight decision making process during the translunar and lunar orbit adjustment phases of the flight of the Radio Astronomy Explorer-B. THe program serves two functions: performance and evaluation of preflight mission analysis, and in-flight support for the midcourse and lunar insertion command decisions that must be made by the flight director. The topics discussed include: analysis of program and midcourse guidance capabilities; methods for on-line control; printed displays of the MAESTRO program; and in-flight operational logistics and testing.

  16. Choosing Mars-Time: Analysis of the Mars Exploration Rover Experience

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bass, Deborah S.; Wales,Roxana C.; Shalin, Valerie L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission decision to work on Mars Time and the implications of that decision on the tactical surface operations process as personnel planned activities and created a new command load for work on each Martian sol. The paper also looks at tools that supported the complexities of Mars Time work, and makes some comparisons between Earth and Mars time scheduling.

  17. Supporting Private Sector Decision-Making with NOAA's Interim Climate Data Records (ICDRs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Privette, J. L.; Glance, W. J.; Cecil, D.; Bates, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    NOAA initiated its Climate Data Record Program (CDRP) in 2009 to operationally provide authoritative satellite Climate Data Records (CDRs) to the government and the private sector. The CDRs are based primarily on 35+ years of meteorological satellite and in situ data collected by NOAA and the Department of Defense. To date, the Program has transitioned 14 CDRs from research to initial operations. In the past year, the CDRP developed and implemented a framework to continuously extend historical CDRs using Interim Climate Data Records (ICDRs). ICDRs are "first batch" CDRs generated within several days of observation using official CDR algorithms and processes. ICDRs are required by decision support systems and other near-term applications which need current data that are fully consistent with homogeneous historical records. For example, an electrical power utility may need temperature and precipitation ICDRs to optimally identify, in both time and space, the "nearest" historical analog period to recent weather. The utility could then use the contemporaneous business data from that period to inform current decision-making. In addition to their homogeneity and consistency, ICDRs are more complete than operational weather products since ICDR processing can await upstream data delays that can negate data value for weather forecasting. However, the operational nature of ICDRs means their uncertainties typically can be improved through reprocessing once better sensor calibration and characterization data become available. Therefore, ICDRs may be considered valuable but temporary placeholders. However, the "trigger" for electing to update a given record involves many considerations, including cost, latency, downstream dependencies and scientific significance. This presentation provides an update on NOAA's CDR Program, focusing on the new CDRs transitioned to operations in 2012 and the ICDR framework -- including update decision criteria -- used to extend CDRs and meet the needs of near-term applications as well as climate monitoring and indicators activities.

  18. PSP, TSP, XP, CMMI...Eating the Alphabet Soup!

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-19

    Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...4 Q tit t Continuous process improvement Organizational Performance Management Causal Analysis and Resolution Level Focus Process Areas Requirements...Project Management process standardization Risk management Decision Analysis and Resolution Product Integration 2 M d R i t t anage Basic Project

  19. Influences on decision making among primiparous women choosing elective caesarean section in the absence of medical indications: findings from a qualitative investigation.

    PubMed

    Kornelsen, Jude; Hutton, Eileen; Munro, Sarah

    2010-10-01

    Patient-initiated elective Caesarean section (PIECS) is increasingly prevalent and is emerging as an urgent issue for individual maternity practitioners, hospitals, and policy makers, as well as for maternity patients. This qualitative study sought to explore women's experiences of the decision-making process leading to elective operative delivery without medical indication. We conducted 17 exploratory qualitative in-depth interviews with primiparous women who had undergone a patient-initiated elective Caesarean section in the absence of any medical indication. The study took place in five hospitals (three urban, two semi-rural) in British Columbia. The findings revealed three themes within the process of women deciding to have a Caesarean section: the reasons for their decision, the qualities of the decision-making process, and the social context in which the decision was made. The factors that influenced a patient-initiated request for delivery by Caesarean section in participants in this study were diverse, culturally dependent, and reflective of varying degrees of emotional and evidence-based influences. PIECS is a rare but socially significant phenomenon. The a priori decision making of some women choosing PIECS does not follow the usual diagnosis-intervention trajectory, and the care provider may have to work in reverse to ensure that the patient fully understands the risks and benefits of her decision subsequent to the decision having been made, while still ensuring patient autonomy. Results from this study provide a context for a woman's request for an elective Caesarean section without medical indication, which may contribute to a more efficacious informed consent process.

  20. Improving Walkability Through Control Strategies at Signalized Intersections

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-01-01

    As cities and communities nationwide seek to develop Complete Streets that foster livability and accommodate all modes, signal timing control strategies that include pedestrians in the operational decision process are gaining importance. This researc...

  1. Towards decision support for waiting lists: an operations management view.

    PubMed

    Vissers, J M; Van Der Bij, J D; Kusters, R J

    2001-06-01

    This paper considers the phenomenon of waiting lists in a healthcare setting, which is characterised by limitations on the national expenditure, to explore the potentials of an operations management perspective. A reference framework for waiting list management is described, distinguishing different levels of planning in healthcare--national, regional, hospital and process--that each contributes to the existence of waiting lists through managerial decision making. In addition, different underlying mechanisms in demand and supply are distinguished, which together explain the development of waiting lists. It is our contention that within this framework a series of situation specific models should be designed to support communication and decision making. This is illustrated by the modelling of the demand for cataract treatment in a regional setting in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands. An input-output model was developed to support decisions regarding waiting lists. The model projects the demand for treatment at a regional level and makes it possible to evaluate waiting list impacts for different scenarios to meet this demand.

  2. Improved representation of situational awareness within a dismounted small combat unit constructive simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K. David; Colony, Mike

    2011-06-01

    Modeling and simulation has been established as a cost-effective means of supporting the development of requirements, exploring doctrinal alternatives, assessing system performance, and performing design trade-off analysis. The Army's constructive simulation for the evaluation of equipment effectiveness in small combat unit operations is currently limited to representation of situation awareness without inclusion of the many uncertainties associated with real world combat environments. The goal of this research is to provide an ability to model situation awareness and decision process uncertainties in order to improve evaluation of the impact of battlefield equipment on ground soldier and small combat unit decision processes. Our Army Probabilistic Inference and Decision Engine (Army-PRIDE) system provides this required uncertainty modeling through the application of two critical techniques that allow Bayesian network technology to be applied to real-time applications. (Object-Oriented Bayesian Network methodology and Object-Oriented Inference technique). In this research, we implement decision process and situation awareness models for a reference scenario using Army-PRIDE and demonstrate its ability to model a variety of uncertainty elements, including: confidence of source, information completeness, and information loss. We also demonstrate that Army-PRIDE improves the realism of the current constructive simulation's decision processes through Monte Carlo simulation.

  3. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk decision and low risk decision - some specific formulas of fuzzy logic. The fuzzy set concepts has some certain parameterization features which are certain extensions of crisp and fuzzy relations respectively and have a rich potential for application to the decision making problems. The proposed approach from this paper presents advantages of fuzzy approach, in comparison with other paradigm and presents a particular way in which fuzzy logic can emerge in decision making process and planning process with implication, as a simulation, in manufacturing - involved in measuring performance of advanced manufacturing systems. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate our simulation.

  4. Toward a Model of Human Information Processing for Decision-Making and Skill Acquisition in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery.

    PubMed

    White, Eoin J; McMahon, Muireann; Walsh, Michael T; Coffey, J Calvin; O Sullivan, Leonard

    To create a human information-processing model for laparoscopic surgery based on already established literature and primary research to enhance laparoscopic surgical education in this context. We reviewed the literature for information-processing models most relevant to laparoscopic surgery. Our review highlighted the necessity for a model that accounts for dynamic environments, perception, allocation of attention resources between the actions of both hands of an operator, and skill acquisition and retention. The results of the literature review were augmented through intraoperative observations of 7 colorectal surgical procedures, supported by laparoscopic video analysis of 12 colorectal procedures. The Wickens human information-processing model was selected as the most relevant theoretical model to which we make adaptions for this specific application. We expanded the perception subsystem of the model to involve all aspects of perception during laparoscopic surgery. We extended the decision-making system to include dynamic decision-making to account for case/patient-specific and surgeon-specific deviations. The response subsystem now includes dual-task performance and nontechnical skills, such as intraoperative communication. The memory subsystem is expanded to include skill acquisition and retention. Surgical decision-making during laparoscopic surgery is the result of a highly complex series of processes influenced not only by the operator's knowledge, but also patient anatomy and interaction with the surgical team. Newer developments in simulation-based education must focus on the theoretically supported elements and events that underpin skill acquisition and affect the cognitive abilities of novice surgeons. The proposed human information-processing model builds on established literature regarding information processing, accounting for a dynamic environment of laparoscopic surgery. This revised model may be used as a foundation for a model describing robotic surgery. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Fontan Surgical Planning: Previous Accomplishments, Current Challenges, and Future Directions.

    PubMed

    Trusty, Phillip M; Slesnick, Timothy C; Wei, Zhenglun Alan; Rossignac, Jarek; Kanter, Kirk R; Fogel, Mark A; Yoganathan, Ajit P

    2018-04-01

    The ultimate goal of Fontan surgical planning is to provide additional insights into the clinical decision-making process. In its current state, surgical planning offers an accurate hemodynamic assessment of the pre-operative condition, provides anatomical constraints for potential surgical options, and produces decent post-operative predictions if boundary conditions are similar enough between the pre-operative and post-operative states. Moving forward, validation with post-operative data is a necessary step in order to assess the accuracy of surgical planning and determine which methodological improvements are needed. Future efforts to automate the surgical planning process will reduce the individual expertise needed and encourage use in the clinic by clinicians. As post-operative physiologic predictions improve, Fontan surgical planning will become an more effective tool to accurately model patient-specific hemodynamics.

  6. Challenges in building intelligent systems for space mission operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartman, Wayne

    1991-01-01

    The purpose here is to provide a top-level look at the stewardship functions performed in space operations, and to identify the major issues and challenges that must be addressed to build intelligent systems that can realistically support operations functions. The focus is on decision support activities involving monitoring, state assessment, goal generation, plan generation, and plan execution. The bottom line is that problem solving in the space operations domain is a very complex process. A variety of knowledge constructs, representations, and reasoning processes are necessary to support effective human problem solving. Emulating these kinds of capabilities in intelligent systems offers major technical challenges that the artificial intelligence community is only beginning to address.

  7. Expanding the base for teaching of percutaneous coronary interventions: the explicit approach.

    PubMed

    Lanzer, Peter; Prechelt, Lutz

    2011-02-15

    Accelerate and improve the training and learning process of operators performing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Operator cognitive, in particular decision-making skills and technical skills are a major factor for the success of coronary interventions. Currently, cognitive skills are commonly developed by three methods: (1) Cognitive learning of rules for which statistical evidence is available. This is very incomprehensive and isolates cognitive learning from skill acquisition. (2) Informal tutoring received from experienced operators, and (3) personal experience by trial-and-error are both very slow. We propose in this concept article a conceptual framework to elicit, capture, and transfer expert PCI skills to complement the current approach. This includes the development of an in-depth understanding of the nature of PCI skills, terminology, and nomenclature needed to streamline communication, propensity of reproducible performance assessment, and in particular an explication of intervention planning and intra-intervention decision-making. We illustrate the impact of improved decision-making by simulation results based on a stochastic model of intervention risk. We identify several key concepts that form the basis of this conceptual framework, in particular different risk types and the notions of strategy, interventional module, and tactic. The increasing complexity of cases have brought PCI to the point where the decision-making skills of master operators need to be made explicit to make them systematically learnable such that the skills of beginner and intermediate operators can be improved much faster than is currently possible. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Corporate dashboard for payphone service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siraj, Fadzilah; Shadan, Hezlin

    2015-12-01

    Making assured that managements are kept abreast of what is happening in the company is not an easy task. The quantity of data generated by the business process is astonishing large and non-centralized. The challenge facing business organizations is how to extract, load, transform data, and then deliver useful information to key decision makers. The major challenge for the payphone industries is in making a good decision, particularly to increase quality of service, customer satisfaction while achieving high revenue. With current practice, the process is very time consuming and therefore, a systematic and informative corporate dashboard needs to be provided especially for managerial level in supporting their decision making process. This paper proposed a dashboard application design that provides a single-screen display of relevant information such as the phone performance and coin collection reports, as well as generated revenue to enable faster and more effective decision making. The development of the dashboard is divided into requirement, design and implementation phases. The implementation using real data has demonstrated the potential use of the dashboard. The evaluation results indicate that the dashboard can be used as a tool that can support payphone operation works and decision process by providing the analytical analysis of the KPI report and the performance status. In addition, the results can be used as a guideline for the dashboard developer to understand the process and focuses on the key elements and the principle in designing the effective dashboard.

  9. A feasibility study for conducting unattended night-time operations at WMKO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stomski, Paul J.; Gajadhar, Sarah; Dahm, Scott; Jordan, Carolyn; Nordin, Tom

    2016-08-01

    In 2015, W. M. Keck Observatory conducted a study of the feasibility of conducting nighttime operations on Maunakea without any staff on the mountain. The study was motivated by the possibility of long term operational costs savings as well as other expected benefits. The goals of the study were to understand the technical feasibility and risk as well as to provide labor and cost estimates for implementation. The results of the study would be used to inform a decision about whether or not to fund and initiate a formal project aimed at the development of this new unattended nighttime operating capability. In this paper we will describe the study process as well as a brief summary of the results including the identified viable design alternative, the risk analysis, and the scope of work. We will also share the decisions made as a result of the study and current status of related follow-on activity.

  10. Future of electronic health records: implications for decision support.

    PubMed

    Rothman, Brian; Leonard, Joan C; Vigoda, Michael M

    2012-01-01

    The potential benefits of the electronic health record over traditional paper are many, including cost containment, reductions in errors, and improved compliance by utilizing real-time data. The highest functional level of the electronic health record (EHR) is clinical decision support (CDS) and process automation, which are expected to enhance patient health and healthcare. The authors provide an overview of the progress in using patient data more efficiently and effectively through clinical decision support to improve health care delivery, how decision support impacts anesthesia practice, and how some are leading the way using these systems to solve need-specific issues. Clinical decision support uses passive or active decision support to modify clinician behavior through recommendations of specific actions. Recommendations may reduce medication errors, which would result in considerable savings by avoiding adverse drug events. In selected studies, clinical decision support has been shown to decrease the time to follow-up actions, and prediction has proved useful in forecasting patient outcomes, avoiding costs, and correctly prompting treatment plan modifications by clinicians before engaging in decision-making. Clinical documentation accuracy and completeness is improved by an electronic health record and greater relevance of care data is delivered. Clinical decision support may increase clinician adherence to clinical guidelines, but educational workshops may be equally effective. Unintentional consequences of clinical decision support, such as alert desensitization, can decrease the effectiveness of a system. Current anesthesia clinical decision support use includes antibiotic administration timing, improved documentation, more timely billing, and postoperative nausea and vomiting prophylaxis. Electronic health record implementation offers data-mining opportunities to improve operational, financial, and clinical processes. Using electronic health record data in real-time for decision support and process automation has the potential to both reduce costs and improve the quality of patient care. © 2012 Mount Sinai School of Medicine.

  11. Annual Research Review: Transdiagnostic neuroscience of child and adolescent mental disorders--differentiating decision making in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder, depression, and anxiety.

    PubMed

    Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S; Cortese, Samuele; Fairchild, Graeme; Stringaris, Argyris

    2016-03-01

    Ineffective decision making is a major source of everyday functional impairment and reduced quality of life for young people with mental disorders. However, very little is known about what distinguishes decision making by individuals with different disorders or the neuropsychological processes or brain systems underlying these. This is the focus of the current review. We first propose a neuroeconomic model of the decision-making process with separate stages for the prechoice evaluation of expected utility of future options; choice execution and postchoice management; the appraisal of outcome against expectation; and the updating of value estimates to guide future decisions. According to the proposed model, decision making is mediated by neuropsychological processes operating within three domains: (a) self-referential processes involved in autobiographical reflection on past, and prospection about future, experiences; (b) executive functions, such as working memory, inhibition, and planning, that regulate the implementation of decisions; and (c) processes involved in value estimation and outcome appraisal and learning. These processes are underpinned by the interplay of multiple brain networks, especially medial and lateralized cortical components of the default mode network, dorsal corticostriatal circuits underpinning higher order cognitive and behavioral control, and ventral frontostriatal circuits, connecting to brain regions implicated in emotion processing, that control valuation and learning processes. Based on clinical insights and considering each of the decision-making stages in turn, we outline disorder-specific hypotheses about impaired decision making in four childhood disorders: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder (CD), depression, and anxiety. We hypothesize that decision making in ADHD is deficient (i.e. inefficient, insufficiently reflective, and inconsistent) and impulsive (biased toward immediate over delayed alternatives). In CD, it is reckless and insensitive to negative consequences. In depression, it is disengaged, perseverative, and pessimistic, while in anxiety, it is hesitant, risk-averse, and self-deprecating. A survey of current empirical indications related to these disorder-specific hypotheses highlights the limited and fragmentary nature of the evidence base and illustrates the need for a major research initiative in decision making in childhood disorders. The final section highlights a number of important additional general themes that need to be considered in future research. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  12. Increased functional connectivity between dorsal posterior parietal and ventral occipitotemporal cortex during uncertain memory decisions.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, J Benjamin; Uncapher, Melina R; Wagner, Anthony D

    2015-01-01

    Retrieval of episodic memories is a multi-component act that relies on numerous operations ranging from processing the retrieval cue, evaluating retrieved information, and selecting the appropriate response given the demands of the task. Motivated by a rich functional neuroimaging literature, recent theorizing about various computations at retrieval has focused on the role of posterior parietal cortex (PPC). In a potentially promising line of research, recent neuroimaging findings suggest that different subregions of dorsal PPC respond distinctly to different aspects of retrieval decisions, suggesting that better understanding of their contributions might shed light on the component processes of retrieval. In an attempt to understand the basic operations performed by dorsal PPC, we used functional MRI and functional connectivity analyses to examine how activation in, and connectivity between, dorsal PPC and ventral temporal regions representing retrieval cues varies as a function of retrieval decision uncertainty. Specifically, participants made a five-point recognition confidence judgment for a series of old and new visually presented words. Consistent with prior studies, memory-related activity patterns dissociated across left dorsal PPC subregions, with activity in the lateral IPS tracking the degree to which participants perceived an item to be old, whereas activity in the SPL increased as a function of decision uncertainty. Importantly, whole-brain functional connectivity analyses further revealed that SPL activity was more strongly correlated with that in the visual word-form area during uncertain relative to certain decisions. These data suggest that the involvement of SPL during episodic retrieval reflects, at least in part, the processing of the retrieval cue, perhaps in service of attempts to increase the mnemonic evidence elicited by the cue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Application of process monitoring to anomaly detection in nuclear material processing systems via system-centric event interpretation of data from multiple sensors of varying reliability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Garcia, Humberto E.; Simpson, Michael F.; Lin, Wen-Chiao

    In this paper, we apply an advanced safeguards approach and associated methods for process monitoring to a hypothetical nuclear material processing system. The assessment regarding the state of the processing facility is conducted at a systemcentric level formulated in a hybrid framework. This utilizes architecture for integrating both time- and event-driven data and analysis for decision making. While the time-driven layers of the proposed architecture encompass more traditional process monitoring methods based on time series data and analysis, the event-driven layers encompass operation monitoring methods based on discrete event data and analysis. By integrating process- and operation-related information and methodologiesmore » within a unified framework, the task of anomaly detection is greatly improved. This is because decision-making can benefit from not only known time-series relationships among measured signals but also from known event sequence relationships among generated events. This available knowledge at both time series and discrete event layers can then be effectively used to synthesize observation solutions that optimally balance sensor and data processing requirements. The application of the proposed approach is then implemented on an illustrative monitored system based on pyroprocessing and results are discussed.« less

  14. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    PubMed

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  15. Technology assessment in healthcare: a review and description of a "best practice" technology assessment process.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, A M; Schrogie, J J; Wilson, W W; Nash, D B

    1997-01-01

    Technology assessment has become a rapidly growing component of the healthcare system. It has assumed a functional role in operational settings and is rapidly impacting decisions involving purchasing, coverage, and reimbursement. This review is intended to assist the healthcare decision maker in considering the application of technology assessment in healthcare, so as to maximize the efficiency of future purchasing decisions. This "best practice" was synthesized after identifying key institutions performing technology assessment in healthcare and analyzing their working processes, including literature review, consensus panel discussions, and expert opinion. We describe this best practice on a reiterative loop that consists of five processes: awareness, strategic appropriateness, analysis versus need, acquisition and implementation, and reassessment. Typical barriers to adoption of technology assessment are also identified and discussed. This review suggests a common terminology for the core processes involved in technology assessment, thereby facilitating a more uniform understanding among the different components of the healthcare system (i.e., payer, provider, and society) while recognizing their different perspectives.

  16. Locus of decision making in multinational corporations and its relationship to subsidiary performance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goehle, D.G.

    1978-01-01

    A conceptual model was developed which drew from the existing research in organization theory, comparative management, and international business which assisted in the delineation of the relevant variables and suggested the nature of their relationship to the locus of decision making. The conceptual model incorporated certain corporate and subsidiary factors considered an influence on the determination of the locus of decision making. Corporate factors included product line or industry, size and complexity of international operations, organization structure, availability of managerial talent, and corporate philosophy. Subsidiary characteristics included subsidiary age and size, availability of local managerial talent, geographic distance from headquartersmore » and other affiliated units, and subsidiary environmental characteristics. The locus of desicion making was measured by the level of participation the headquarters and subsidiary management had in decision making for twenty-nine decisions, representing six functional areas. Levels of participation for headquarters and subsidiary managers were measured for each decision based on responses to a five-point scale of decision process categories which indicated varying levels of headquarters and subsidiary participation. The sample included ten US multinational corporations representing five industries: pharmaceuticals, tire and rubber, automobiles, capital equipment, and food processing.« less

  17. Risk analysis theory applied to fishing operations: A new approach on the decision-making problem

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cunha, J.C.S.

    1994-12-31

    In the past the decisions concerning whether to continue or interrupt a fishing operation were based primarily on the operator`s previous experience. This procedure often led to wrong decisions and unnecessary loss of money and time. This paper describes a decision-making method based on risk analysis theory and previous operation results from a field under study. The method leads to more accurate decisions on a daily basis allowing the operator to verify each day of the operation if the decision being carried out is the one with the highest probability to conduct to the best economical result. An example ofmore » the method application is provided at the end of the paper.« less

  18. The use of the Dutch Self-Sufficiency Matrix (SSM-D) to inform allocation decisions to public mental health care for homeless people.

    PubMed

    Lauriks, Steve; de Wit, Matty A S; Buster, Marcel C A; Fassaert, Thijs J L; van Wifferen, Ron; Klazinga, Niek S

    2014-10-01

    The current study set out to develop a decision support tool based on the Self-Sufficiency Matrix (Dutch version; SSM-D) for the clinical decision to allocate homeless people to the public mental health care system at the central access point of public mental health care in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic-curve analyses were used to model professional decisions and establish four decision categories based on SSM-D scores from half of the research population (Total n = 612). The model and decision categories were found to be accurate and reliable in predicting professional decisions in the second half of the population. Results indicate that the decision support tool based on the SSM-D is useful and feasible. The method to develop the SSM-D as a decision support tool could be applied to decision-making processes in other systems and services where the SSM-D has been implemented, to further increase the utility of the instrument.

  19. A multi-armed bandit approach to superquantile selection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-01

    decision learning, machine learning, intelligence processing, intelligence cycle, quantitative finance. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 73 16. PRICE CODE 17...fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2017 Approved by...Roberto S. Szechtman Thesis Advisor Michael P. Atkinson Second Reader Patricia A. Jacobs Chair, Operations Research Department iii THIS PAGE

  20. 77 FR 24200 - Clean Air Act Operating Permit Program; Petitions for Objection to State Operating Permits for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-23

    ... without requiring preconstruction monitoring for particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM 10 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S), total reduced sulfur (TRS) and sulfuric acid mist; and (5) LDEQ... in the decision-making process. In the 2011 Petition for the modified title V pig iron permit and for...

  1. Manhunting: Counter-Network Organization for Irregular Warfare

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-01

    received his B.A. in International Relations from the University of Kansas in 1985 and M.S. in Computer Applications Management from Lesley University...collection management , and targeting.b. Operational level processes begin with intelligence on the adversary capabilities with granular focus to mitigate... managers work with analysts, targeting experts, decision makers, planners, and operations personnel, guiding multidisciplinary intelligence collection to

  2. A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tavana, Madjid

    2003-01-01

    The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

  3. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  4. Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

    PubMed Central

    Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

  5. Multi-criteria development and incorporation into decision tools for health technology adoption.

    PubMed

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Waddell, Cameron D; Dixon, Elijah; Poulin, Michelle; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    When introducing new health technologies, decision makers must integrate research evidence with local operational management information to guide decisions about whether and under what conditions the technology will be used. Multi-criteria decision analysis can support the adoption or prioritization of health interventions by using criteria to explicitly articulate the health organization's needs, limitations, and values in addition to evaluating evidence for safety and effectiveness. This paper seeks to describe the development of a framework to create agreed-upon criteria and decision tools to enhance a pre-existing local health technology assessment (HTA) decision support program. The authors compiled a list of published criteria from the literature, consulted with experts to refine the criteria list, and used a modified Delphi process with a group of key stakeholders to review, modify, and validate each criterion. In a workshop setting, the criteria were used to create decision tools. A set of user-validated criteria for new health technology evaluation and adoption was developed and integrated into the local HTA decision support program. Technology evaluation and decision guideline tools were created using these criteria to ensure that the decision process is systematic, consistent, and transparent. This framework can be used by others to develop decision-making criteria and tools to enhance similar technology adoption programs. The development of clear, user-validated criteria for evaluating new technologies adds a critical element to improve decision-making on technology adoption, and the decision tools ensure consistency, transparency, and real-world relevance.

  6. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Macintosh, Andrew, E-mail: andrew.macintosh@anu.edu.au; Waugh, Lauren

    Concerns about the effectiveness of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have prompted proposals to improve its performance by limiting the discretion of decision-makers in screening. To investigate whether such proposals are likely to generate the desired results, we conducted an evaluation of the screening process under the Australian government's EIA regime from its introduction on 16 July 2000 to 30 June 2013 (study period). Almost 1 in 5 ‘particular manner’ decisions—a type of screening decision under the regime—were found to be unlawful. The extent of non-compliance is explained on the basis of convenience. The department was required to assess a largemore » number of projects under tight timeframes and with limited resources, while being pressured by proponents to allow their projects to bypass EIA. These pressures resulted in the development of an informal custom whereby the formal compensatory mitigation restrictions were frequently ignored. The results highlight the relative significance of formal and informal institutions in EIA. Formal EIA rules typically provide a mere outline of the process. The informal institutions adopted by administrators often have a greater influence on how the process operates and what it achieves. - Highlights: • Concerns about the effectiveness of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have prompted proposals to improve its performance by limiting the discretion of decision-makers in screening. • To investigate whether such proposals are likely to generate the desired results, we conducted an evaluation of the Australian government's screening process, looking at the extent of compliance with a formal prohibition on the consideration of compensatory mitigation. • Almost 1 in 5 ‘particular manner’ decisions – a type of screening decision under the regime – were found to be unlawful (with a 95% confidence interval of between 1:4 and 1:7) because of a failure to abide by the compensatory mitigation restrictions. For urban development actions, the ratio between lawful and unlawful particular manner decisions was worse than 1:1. • The extent of non-compliance is explained on the basis of convenience. Budget and interest group pressures resulted in the development of an informal custom whereby the formal compensatory mitigation restrictions were ignored. • The results highlight the relative significance of formal and informal institutions in EIA. Formal EIA rules typically provide a mere outline of the process. The informal institutions adopted by administrators often have a greater influence on how the process operates and what it achieves.« less

  7. Use of technology to support information needs for continuity of operations planning in public health: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne; Demiris, George

    2010-01-01

    Continuity of operations planning focuses on an organization's ability to deliver essential services before, during and after an emergency. Public health leaders must make decisions based on information from many sources and their information needs are often facilitated or hindered by technology. The aim of this study is to provide a systematic review of studies of technology projects that address public health continuity of operations planning information needs and to discuss patterns, themes, and challenges to inform the design of public health continuity of operations information systems. To return a comprehensive results set in an under-explored area, we searched broadly in the Medline and EBSCOHost bibliographic databases using terms from prior work in public health emergency management and continuity of operations planning in other domains. In addition, we manually searched the citation lists of publications included for review. A total of 320 publications were reviewed. Twenty studies were identified for inclusion (twelve risk assessment decision support tools, six network and communications-enabled decision support tools, one training tool and one dedicated video-conferencing tool). Levels of implementation for information systems in the included studies range from proposed frameworks to operational systems. There is a general lack of documented efforts in the scientific literature for technology projects about public health continuity of operations planning. Available information about operational information systems suggest inclusion of public health practitioners in the design process as a factor in system success.

  8. Solid Waste Processing. A State-of-the-Art Report on Unit Operations and Processes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engdahl, Richard B.

    The importance and intricacy of the solid wastes disposal problem and the need to deal with it effectively and economically led to the state-of-the-art survey covered by this report. The material presented here was compiled to be used by those in government and private industry who must make or implement decisions concerning the processing of…

  9. Desktop microsimulation: a tool to improve efficiency in the medical office practice.

    PubMed

    Montgomery, James B; Linville, Beth A; Slonim, Anthony D

    2013-01-01

    Because the economic crisis in the United States continues to have an impact on healthcare organizations, industry leaders must optimize their decision making. Discrete-event computer simulation is a quality tool with a demonstrated track record of improving the precision of analysis for process redesign. However, the use of simulation to consolidate practices and design efficiencies into an unfinished medical office building was a unique task. A discrete-event computer simulation package was used to model the operations and forecast future results for four orthopedic surgery practices. The scenarios were created to allow an evaluation of the impact of process change on the output variables of exam room utilization, patient queue size, and staff utilization. The model helped with decisions regarding space allocation and efficient exam room use by demonstrating the impact of process changes in patient queues at check-in/out, x-ray, and cast room locations when compared to the status quo model. The analysis impacted decisions on facility layout, patient flow, and staff functions in this newly consolidated practice. Simulation was found to be a useful tool for process redesign and decision making even prior to building occupancy. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  10. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  11. [Discussion on Quality Evaluation Method of Medical Device During Life-Cycle in Operation Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process].

    PubMed

    Zheng, Caixian; Zheng, Kun; Shen, Yunming; Wu, Yunyun

    2016-01-01

    The content related to the quality during life-cycle in operation of medical device includes daily use, repair volume, preventive maintenance, quality control and adverse event monitoring. In view of this, the article aims at discussion on the quality evaluation method of medical devices during their life cycle in operation based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The presented method is proved to be effective by evaluating patient monitors as example. The method presented in can promote and guide the device quality control work, and it can provide valuable inputs to decisions about purchase of new device.

  12. Seeing beyond monitors-Critical care nurses' multiple skills in patient observation: Descriptive qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Alastalo, Mika; Salminen, Leena; Lakanmaa, Riitta-Liisa; Leino-Kilpi, Helena

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of multiple skills in patient observation in critical care nursing. Data from semi-structured interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. Experienced critical care nurses (n=20) from three intensive care units in two university hospitals in Finland. Patient observation skills consist of: information gaining skills, information processing skills, decision-making skills and co-operation skills. The first three skills are integrated in the patient observation process, in which gaining information is a prerequisite for processing information that precedes making decisions. Co-operation has a special role as it occurs throughout the process. This study provided a comprehensive description of patient observation skills related to the three-phased patient observation process. The findings contribute to clarifying this part of the competence. The description of patient observation skills may be applied in both clinical practice and education as it may serve as a framework for orientation, ensuring clinical skills and designing learning environments. Based on this study, patient observation skills can be recommended to be included in critical care nursing education, orientation and as a part of critical care nurses' competence evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Comprehensive analysis of statistical and model-based overlay lot disposition methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crow, David A.; Flugaur, Ken; Pellegrini, Joseph C.; Joubert, Etienne L.

    2001-08-01

    Overlay lot disposition algorithms in lithography occupy some of the highest leverage decision points in the microelectronic manufacturing process. In a typical large volume sub-0.18micrometers fab the lithography lot disposition decision is made about 500 times per day. Each decision will send a lot of wafers either to the next irreversible process step or back to rework in an attempt to improve unacceptable overlay performance. In the case of rework, the intention is that the reworked lot will represent better yield (and thus more value) than the original lot and that the enhanced lot value will exceed the cost of rework. Given that the estimated cost of reworking a critical-level lot is around 10,000 (based upon the opportunity cost of consuming time on a state-of-the-art DUV scanner), we are faced with the implication that the lithography lot disposition decision process impacts up to 5 million per day in decisions. That means that a 1% error rate in this decision process represents over 18 million per year lost in profit for a representative sit. Remarkably, despite this huge leverage, the lithography lot disposition decision algorithm usually receives minimal attention. In many cases, this lack of attention has resulted in the retention of sub-optimal algorithms from earlier process generations and a significant negative impact on the economic output of many high-volume manufacturing sites. An ideal lot- dispositioning algorithm would be an algorithm that results into the best economic decision being made every time - lots would only be reworked where the expected value (EV) of the reworked lot minus the expected value of the original lot exceeds the cost of the rework: EV(reworked lot)- EV(original lot)>COST(rework process) Calculating the above expected values in real-time has generally been deemed too complicated and maintenance-intensive to be practical for fab operations, so a simplified rule is typically used.

  14. Knowledge base and sensor bus messaging service architecture for critical tsunami warning and decision-support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabeur, Z. A.; Wächter, J.; Middleton, S. E.; Zlatev, Z.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Loewe, P.

    2012-04-01

    The intelligent management of large volumes of environmental monitoring data for early tsunami warning requires the deployment of robust and scalable service oriented infrastructure that is supported by an agile knowledge-base for critical decision-support In the TRIDEC project (TRIDEC 2010-2013), a sensor observation service bus of the TRIDEC system is being developed for the advancement of complex tsunami event processing and management. Further, a dedicated TRIDEC system knowledge-base is being implemented to enable on-demand access to semantically rich OGC SWE compliant hydrodynamic observations and operationally oriented meta-information to multiple subscribers. TRIDEC decision support requires a scalable and agile real-time processing architecture which enables fast response to evolving subscribers requirements as the tsunami crisis develops. This is also achieved with the support of intelligent processing services which specialise in multi-level fusion methods with relevance feedback and deep learning. The TRIDEC knowledge base development work coupled with that of the generic sensor bus platform shall be presented to demonstrate advanced decision-support with situation awareness in context of tsunami early warning and crisis management.

  15. Voices of decision makers on evidence-based policy: A case of evolving TB/HIV co-infection policy in India.

    PubMed

    Reddy, K Srikanth; Sahay, Seema

    2016-01-01

    This study explores decision makers' perspectives on evidence-based policy (EBP) development using the case of TB/HIV co-infection in India. Twelve in-depth interviews were conducted with purposively selected key national and international policy decision makers in India. Verbatim transcripts were processed and analysed thematically using QSR (NUD*IST 6). The decision makers were unequivocal in recognizing the TB/HIV co-infection as an important public health issue in India and stated the problem to be different than Africa. The need of having a "third programme" for co-infection was not felt. According to them, the public health management of this co-infection must be within the realm of these two programmes. The study also emphasized on decision makers' perspectives on evidence and the process of utilization of evidence for decision-making for co-infection. Study findings showed global evidence was not always accepted by the decision makers and study shows several examples of decision makers demanding local evidence for policy decisions. Decision makers did make interim policies based on global evidence but most of the time their mandate was to get local evidence. Thus, operations research/implementation science especially multi-centric studies emerge as important strategy for EBP development. Researcher-policy maker interface was a gap where role of researcher as aggressive communicator of research findings was expected.

  16. Time, Technology, and Exploitation - Can Future Military Command and Control (C2) Domination be Linked to Effective Knowledge Management?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-04-24

    Domination be Linked to Effective Knowledge 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...necessarily endorsed by the NWC or the Department of the Navy. 14. ABSTRACT Highly effective employment of military force at the operational level...The most effective strategy to optimize this operational function is by increasing the speed of the operational commander’s decision- making process by

  17. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  18. An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieker, Jeffrey D.; Labadie, John W.

    2012-09-01

    A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.

  19. Developing AN Emergency Response Model for Offshore Oil Spill Disaster Management Using Spatial Decision Support System (sdss)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balogun, Abdul-Lateef; Matori, Abdul-Nasir; Wong Toh Kiak, Kelvin

    2018-04-01

    Environmental resources face severe risks during offshore oil spill disasters and Geographic Information System (GIS) Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) maps are increasingly being used as response tools to minimize the huge impacts of these spills. However, ESI maps are generally unable to independently harmonize the diverse preferences of the multiple stakeholders' involved in the response process, causing rancour and delay in response time. This paper's Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model to perform tradeoffs in determining the most significant resources to be secured considering the limited resources and time available to perform the response operation. The AHP approach is used to aggregate the diverse preferences of the stakeholders and reach a consensus. These preferences, represented as priority weights, are incorporated in a GIS platform to generate Environmental sensitivity risk (ESR) maps. The ESR maps provide a common operational platform and consistent situational awareness for the multiple parties involved in the emergency response operation thereby minimizing discord among the response teams and saving the most valuable resources.

  20. Siting a municipal solid waste disposal facility, part II: the effects of external criteria on the final decision.

    PubMed

    Korucu, M Kemal; Karademir, Aykan

    2014-02-01

    The procedure of a multi-criteria decision analysis supported by the geographic information systems was applied to the site selection process of a planning municipal solid waste management practice based on twelve different scenarios. The scenarios included two different decision tree modes and two different weighting models for three different area requirements. The suitability rankings of the suitable sites obtained from the application of the decision procedure for the scenarios were assessed by a factorial experimental design concerning the effect of some external criteria on the final decision of the site selection process. The external criteria used in the factorial experimental design were defined as "Risk perception and approval of stakeholders" and "Visibility". The effects of the presence of these criteria in the decision trees were evaluated in detail. For a quantitative expression of the differentiations observed in the suitability rankings, the ranking data were subjected to ANOVA test after a normalization process. Then the results of these tests were evaluated by Tukey test to measure the effects of external criteria on the final decision. The results of Tukey tests indicated that the involvement of the external criteria into the decision trees produced statistically meaningful differentiations in the suitability rankings. Since the external criteria could cause considerable external costs during the operation of the disposal facilities, the presence of these criteria in the decision tree in addition to the other criteria related to environmental and legislative requisites could prevent subsequent external costs in the first place.

  1. Regulation in work and decision-making in the activity of public prosecutors in Santa Catarina, Brazil.

    PubMed

    de Azevedo, Beatriz Marcondes; Cruz, Roberto Moraes

    2012-01-01

    Was to characterize the relationship between regulation at work and decision processes in the activity of Prosecutors in SC. To this end, it starts with the assumption that the decision-making and regulation are complex phenomena of conduct at work, since the worker makes continuously micro and macro decisions, based on a set of regulations, influenced by contingency and personal variables. Four Prosecutors participated in this study. This was a case study, descriptive and exploratory. For data collection, documents were analyzed, observing the workplace and interviewed key personnel of the institution in order to identify macro and micro organizational factors. Also as a technique for data collection an Ergonomic Analysis of Work. It was found that the work of the Prosecutor presents a set of activities that take place on the basis of coordination and cooperation in a dynamic and unstable environment. The prosecutor's activity, in addition to being the full expression of basic psychological processes of service work, is embedded in a context which, in part, depends and, therefore, encourages and requires choices and referrals by employees, demanding the demonstration of skills and modulating its operative mode. Processing depends on the idiosyncrasies and the force of circumstances, thus creating a brand, a unique personal style in the work. It is inferred that they are dialectical processes, since they regulate to decide and decide because they are regulated. However, the regular employee builds micro decisions that subsidize an effective decision. Thus, the better the variability of regulation, the greater the variability of decisions.

  2. After the Fall: The Use of Surplus Capacity in an Academic Library Automation System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, A. J.

    The possible uses of excess central processing unit capacity in an integrated academic library automation system discussed in this draft proposal include (1) in-house services such as word processing, electronic mail, management decision support using PERT/CPM techniques, and control of physical plant operation; (2) public services such as the…

  3. A Theory of Teacher Change Developed from Teachers of Writing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Billie M.

    A study was conducted to determine if and how teachers changed as a result of participating in a National Writing Project summer institute. The study investigated the process of change as based on reports of 16 elementary through college level teacher-consultants who attended the institute. The decision-making operation process of the teachers to…

  4. A Computer Program You Can Use: Edging and Trimmer Trainer

    Treesearch

    Philip A. Araman; D. Earl Kline; Matthew F. Winn

    1996-01-01

    We present a computerized training tool designed to help hardwood sawmill edger and trim saw operators improve their processing performance. It can also be used by managers to understand the affects of processing decisions such as limiting wane beyond standard grading rule restrictions. The program helps users understand the relationships between lumber grade, surface...

  5. Making a Splash.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maland, Jim

    1998-01-01

    Presents a 10-step process that allows swimming-pool owners to objectively scrutinize their existing facility's needs, construction, and operation and maintenance budgets before renovating a structurally deficient or costly pool. Four examples of problems involving pool-renovation decision making are highlighted. (GR)

  6. ORES - Objective Referenced Evaluation in Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Terry

    Science process skills considered important in making decisions and solving problems include: observing, classifying, measuring, using numbers, using space/time relationships, communicating, predicting, inferring, manipulating variables, making operational definitions, forming hypotheses, interpreting data, and experimenting. This 60-item test,…

  7. 7 CFR 1470.22 - Conservation stewardship plan.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS CONSERVATION STEWARDSHIP PROGRAM Contracts... process as outlined in the National Planning Procedures Handbook to encourage participants to address... the participant's decisions that describes the schedule of conservation activities to be implemented...

  8. Modeling and optimum time performance for concurrent processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mielke, Roland R.; Stoughton, John W.; Som, Sukhamoy

    1988-01-01

    The development of a new graph theoretic model for describing the relation between a decomposed algorithm and its execution in a data flow environment is presented. Called ATAMM, the model consists of a set of Petri net marked graphs useful for representing decision-free algorithms having large-grained, computationally complex primitive operations. Performance time measures which determine computing speed and throughput capacity are defined, and the ATAMM model is used to develop lower bounds for these times. A concurrent processing operating strategy for achieving optimum time performance is presented and illustrated by example.

  9. A high-level synthesis of oil spill response equipment and countermeasures.

    PubMed

    Ventikos, Nikolaos P; Vergetis, Emmanouil; Psaraftis, Harilaos N; Triantafyllou, George

    2004-02-27

    This paper presents an operational synthesis of major oil spill response methods (mechanical, chemical, etc.) and the corresponding oil response equipment for sea context (booms, skimmers, etc.). We focus on important features of oil spill response, in order to formulate a decision-based database, capable of supporting the development of a complete oil spill response operation. Moreover, we classify these findings and introduce simple formatting and standards to supply predictive tools for oil spill models. The actual goal of this paper is to come up with a decision-driven process, which can provide for a realistic choice of oil spill response equipment in the design of the primary oil response phase. This is intended to lead to a prompt, logical, and well-prepared oil spill response operation satisfying time and cost criteria and protecting the marine environment.

  10. Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 4): T H Agriculture and Nutrition Site, Dougherty County, Albany, GA, April 26, 1996

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    This decision document (Record of Decision), presents the selected Remedial Action for the Operable Unit Two for the T H Agriculture & Nutrition (THAN) Site, Albany, Georgia. The second operable unit addresses the source of the contamination on the eastern parcel of the Site. The major components of the selected remedy for operable unit two include: the excavation of all soil contaminated with organics necessary to meet performance standards; the staging and preconditioning of soil for low temperature thermal desorption treatment; the treatment of excavated soil by low temperature thermal desorption; the placement of treated, decontaminated soil back to themore » site; periodic sampling of treated soil during the treatment process to verify the effectiveness of the remedy; air monitoring to ensure safety of nearby residents and workers; groundwater monitoring to ensure that metals contaminated remaining in the subsurface soil will not result in contaminated groundwater migrating offsite in concentrations which exceed groundwater protection standards; and deed restrictions to prevent residential use of the property.« less

  11. Decision support for operations and maintenance (DSOM) system

    DOEpatents

    Jarrell, Donald B [Kennewick, WA; Meador, Richard J [Richland, WA; Sisk, Daniel R [Richland, WA; Hatley, Darrel D [Kennewick, WA; Brown, Daryl R [Richland, WA; Keibel, Gary R [Richland, WA; Gowri, Krishnan [Richland, WA; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F [Richland, WA; Adams, Kevin J [San Bruno, CA; Yates, Kenneth R [Lake Oswego, OR; Eschbach, Elizabeth J [Fort Collins, CO; Stratton, Rex C [Richland, WA

    2006-03-21

    A method for minimizing the life cycle cost of processes such as heating a building. The method utilizes sensors to monitor various pieces of equipment used in the process, for example, boilers, turbines, and the like. The method then performs the steps of identifying a set optimal operating conditions for the process, identifying and measuring parameters necessary to characterize the actual operating condition of the process, validating data generated by measuring those parameters, characterizing the actual condition of the process, identifying an optimal condition corresponding to the actual condition, comparing said optimal condition with the actual condition and identifying variances between the two, and drawing from a set of pre-defined algorithms created using best engineering practices, an explanation of at least one likely source and at least one recommended remedial action for selected variances, and providing said explanation as an output to at least one user.

  12. Intelligent alarming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braden, W. B.

    1992-01-01

    This talk discusses the importance of providing a process operator with concise information about a process fault including a root cause diagnosis of the problem, a suggested best action for correcting the fault, and prioritization of the problem set. A decision tree approach is used to illustrate one type of approach for determining the root cause of a problem. Fault detection in several different types of scenarios is addressed, including pump malfunctions and pipeline leaks. The talk stresses the need for a good data rectification strategy and good process models along with a method for presenting the findings to the process operator in a focused and understandable way. A real time expert system is discussed as an effective tool to help provide operators with this type of information. The use of expert systems in the analysis of actual versus predicted results from neural networks and other types of process models is discussed.

  13. Multicriteria hierarchical iterative interactive algorithm for organizing operational modes of large heat supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korotkova, T. I.; Popova, V. I.

    2017-11-01

    The generalized mathematical model of decision-making in the problem of planning and mode selection providing required heat loads in a large heat supply system is considered. The system is multilevel, decomposed into levels of main and distribution heating networks with intermediate control stages. Evaluation of the effectiveness, reliability and safety of such a complex system is carried out immediately according to several indicators, in particular pressure, flow, temperature. This global multicriteria optimization problem with constraints is decomposed into a number of local optimization problems and the coordination problem. An agreed solution of local problems provides a solution to the global multicriterion problem of decision making in a complex system. The choice of the optimum operational mode of operation of a complex heat supply system is made on the basis of the iterative coordination process, which converges to the coordinated solution of local optimization tasks. The interactive principle of multicriteria task decision-making includes, in particular, periodic adjustment adjustments, if necessary, guaranteeing optimal safety, reliability and efficiency of the system as a whole in the process of operation. The degree of accuracy of the solution, for example, the degree of deviation of the internal air temperature from the required value, can also be changed interactively. This allows to carry out adjustment activities in the best way and to improve the quality of heat supply to consumers. At the same time, an energy-saving task is being solved to determine the minimum required values of heads at sources and pumping stations.

  14. Applications Integration Strategy in the Mission Development Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, E. L., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Earth Science Applied Science Program has worked for the past four to five years with the Earth Science Division's Flight Program to cultivate an understanding of the importance of satellite remote sensing impacts on decision-making policy and decision support tools utilized by academia, state and local governments, other government agencies, private sector companies, and non-profit organizations. It has long been recognized that applications projects and studies in areas such as Health and Air Quality, Water Resources, Disasters, and Ecological Forecasting, have benefited and been enhanced through the use of satellite remote sensing. Applications researchers often use remote sensing data once it becomes available after the post-launch evaluation phase in the format and level of fidelity that is available. The results from the many applications projects, over the years, have been significant and there are countless examples of improvements and enhancements to operational systems and decision-making policies in the Applied Sciences community. However, feedback received from the applications community regarding the need for improved data availability and latency; processing and formatting, to name a few, prompted the idea of applied science involvement early in the life cycle of mission development. Over time, the Applied Science Program personnel have learned a great deal from the flight mission development life cycle process and recognized key areas of alignment. This presentation will discuss specific aspects of applied science that investigators should consider when proposing to future announcements involving an applications dimension. The Program's experience with user community needs, decision-making requirements, and stakeholder operations requirements will be highlighted.

  15. Context recognition and situation assessment in autonomous mobile robots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yavnai, Arie

    1993-05-01

    The capability to recognize the operating context and to assess the situation in real-time is needed, if a high functionality autonomous mobile robot has to react properly and effectively to continuously changing situations and events, either external or internal, while the robot is performing its assigned tasks. A new approach and architecture for context recognition and situation assessment module (CORSA) is presented in this paper. CORSA is a multi-level information processing module which consists of adaptive decision and classification algorithms. It performs dynamic mapping from the data space to the context space, and dynamically decides on the context class. Learning mechanism is employed to update the decision variables so as to minimize the probability of misclassification. CORSA is embedded within the Mission Manager module of the intelligent autonomous hyper-controller (IAHC) of the mobile robot. The information regarding operating context, events and situation is then communicated to other modules of the IAHC where it is used to: (a) select the appropriate action strategy; (b) support the processes to arbitration and conflict resolution between reflexive behaviors and reasoning-driven behaviors; (c) predict future events and situations; and (d) determine criteria and priorities for planning, replanning, and decision making.

  16. The Influence of Future Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4) on Doctrine and the Operational Commander's Decision-Making Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayer, Michael G.

    1996-01-01

    Future C4 systems will alter the traditional balance between force and information, having a profound influence on doctrine and the operational commander's decision making process. The Joint Staff's future vision of C4 is conceptualized in 'C4I for the Warrior' which envisions a joint C4I architecture providing timely sensor to shoot information direct to the warfighter. C4 system must manage and filter an overwhelming amount of information; deal with interoperability issues; overcome technological limitations; meet emerging security requirements; and protect against 'Information Warfare.' Severe budget constraints necessitate unified control of C4 systems under singular leadership for the common good of all the services. In addition, acquisition policy and procedures must be revamped to allow new technologies to be fielded quickly; and the commercial marketplace will become the preferred starting point for modernization. Flatter command structures are recommended in this environment where information is available instantaneously. New responsibilities for decision making at lower levels are created. Commanders will have to strike a balance between exerting greater control and allowing subordinates enough flexibility to maintain initiative. Clearly, the commander's intent remains the most important tool in striking this balance.

  17. The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jonsson, Jon E.

    1991-01-01

    The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

  18. Distributed collaborative decision support environments for predictive awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuay, William K.; Stilman, Boris; Yakhnis, Vlad

    2005-05-01

    The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, rapidly assess the enemy"s course of action (eCOA) or possible actions and promulgate their own course of action (COA) - a need for predictive awareness. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Revolutionary new approaches to strategy generation and assessment such as Linguistic Geometry (LG) permit the rapid development of COA vs. enemy COA (eCOA). LG tools automatically generate and permit the operators to take advantage of winning strategies and tactics for mission planning and execution in near real-time. LG is predictive and employs deep "look-ahead" from the current state and provides a realistic, reactive model of adversary reasoning and behavior. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to decision support for predictive mission awareness.

  19. The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todini, E.

    2014-09-01

    The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc.) or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming) approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

  20. Visualization of decision processes using a cognitive architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livingston, Mark A.; Murugesan, Arthi; Brock, Derek; Frost, Wende K.; Perzanowski, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive architectures are computational theories of reasoning the human mind engages in as it processes facts and experiences. A cognitive architecture uses declarative and procedural knowledge to represent mental constructs that are involved in decision making. Employing a model of behavioral and perceptual constraints derived from a set of one or more scenarios, the architecture reasons about the most likely consequence(s) of a sequence of events. Reasoning of any complexity and depth involving computational processes, however, is often opaque and challenging to comprehend. Arguably, for decision makers who may need to evaluate or question the results of autonomous reasoning, it would be useful to be able to inspect the steps involved in an interactive, graphical format. When a chain of evidence and constraint-based decision points can be visualized, it becomes easier to explore both how and why a scenario of interest will likely unfold in a particular way. In initial work on a scheme for visualizing cognitively-based decision processes, we focus on generating graphical representations of models run in the Polyscheme cognitive architecture. Our visualization algorithm operates on a modified version of Polyscheme's output, which is accomplished by augmenting models with a simple set of tags. We provide example visualizations and discuss properties of our technique that pose challenges for our representation goals. We conclude with a summary of feedback solicited from domain experts and practitioners in the field of cognitive modeling.

  1. Neural correlates of decision making with explicit information about probabilities and incentives in elderly healthy subjects.

    PubMed

    Labudda, Kirsten; Woermann, Friedrich G; Mertens, Markus; Pohlmann-Eden, Bernd; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

    2008-06-01

    Recent functional neuroimaging and lesion studies demonstrate the involvement of the orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal cortex as a key structure in decision making processes. This region seems to be particularly crucial when contingencies between options and consequences are unknown but have to be learned by the use of feedback following previous decisions (decision making under ambiguity). However, little is known about the neural correlates of decision making under risk conditions in which information about probabilities and potential outcomes is given. In the present study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in 12 subjects during a decision making task. This task provided explicit information about probabilities and associated potential incentives. The responses were compared to BOLD signals in a control condition without information about incentives. In contrast to previous decision making studies, we completely removed the outcome phase following a decision to exclude the potential influence of feedback previously received on current decisions. The results indicate that the integration of information about probabilities and incentives leads to activations within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the posterior parietal lobe, the anterior cingulate and the right lingual gyrus. We assume that this pattern of activation is due to the involvement of executive functions, conflict detection mechanisms and arithmetic operations during the deliberation phase of decisional processes that are based on explicit information.

  2. Hierarchical semi-numeric method for pairwise fuzzy group decision making.

    PubMed

    Marimin, M; Umano, M; Hatono, I; Tamura, H

    2002-01-01

    Gradual improvements to a single-level semi-numeric method, i.e., linguistic labels preference representation by fuzzy sets computation for pairwise fuzzy group decision making are summarized. The method is extended to solve multiple criteria hierarchical structure pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problems. The problems are hierarchically structured into focus, criteria, and alternatives. Decision makers express their evaluations of criteria and alternatives based on each criterion by using linguistic labels. The labels are converted into and processed in triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). Evaluations of criteria yield relative criteria weights. Evaluations of the alternatives, based on each criterion, yield a degree of preference for each alternative or a degree of satisfaction for each preference value. By using a neat ordered weighted average (OWA) or a fuzzy weighted average operator, solutions obtained based on each criterion are aggregated into final solutions. The hierarchical semi-numeric method is suitable for solving a larger and more complex pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problem. The proposed method has been verified and applied to solve some real cases and is compared to Saaty's (1996) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.

  3. Intelligent Case Based Decision Support System for Online Diagnosis of Automated Production System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Rabah, N.; Saddem, R.; Ben Hmida, F.; Carre-Menetrier, V.; Tagina, M.

    2017-01-01

    Diagnosis of Automated Production System (APS) is a decision-making process designed to detect, locate and identify a particular failure caused by the control law. In the literature, there are three major types of reasoning for industrial diagnosis: the first is model-based, the second is rule-based and the third is case-based. The common and major limitation of the first and the second reasonings is that they do not have automated learning ability. This paper presents an interactive and effective Case Based Decision Support System for online Diagnosis (CB-DSSD) of an APS. It offers a synergy between the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) and the Decision Support System (DSS) in order to support and assist Human Operator of Supervision (HOS) in his/her decision process. Indeed, the experimental evaluation performed on an Interactive Training System for PLC (ITS PLC) that allows the control of a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC), simulating sensors or/and actuators failures and validating the control algorithm through a real time interactive experience, showed the efficiency of our approach.

  4. Through the Lens of Operational Art: 1971 Bangladesh Campaign

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-17

    rather than a formulaic process , allowing ample scope for creativity in its application. The next three sections build the narrative of the...campaign; framing the problem to provide a background to the conflict, outlining the decision-making and the planning process incorporating both the... process itself, as the official history of the campaign by the Indian authorities has not been made public, and the written orders and instructions issued

  5. Closing data gaps for LCA of food products: estimating the energy demand of food processing.

    PubMed

    Sanjuán, Neus; Stoessel, Franziska; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2014-01-21

    Food is one of the most energy and CO2-intensive consumer goods. While environmental data on primary agricultural products are increasingly becoming available, there are large data gaps concerning food processing. Bridging these gaps is important; for example, the food industry can use such data to optimize processes from an environmental perspective, and retailers may use this information for purchasing decisions. Producers and retailers can then market sustainable products and deliver the information demanded by governments and consumers. Finally, consumers are increasingly interested in the environmental information of foods in order to lower their consumption impacts. This study provides estimation tools for the energy demand of a representative set of food process unit operations such as dehydration, evaporation, or pasteurization. These operations are used to manufacture a variety of foods and can be combined, according to the product recipe, to quantify the heat and electricity demand during processing. In combination with inventory data on the production of the primary ingredients, this toolbox will be a basis to perform life cycle assessment studies of a large number of processed food products and to provide decision support to the stakeholders. Furthermore, a case study is performed to illustrate the application of the tools.

  6. Selecting automation for the clinical chemistry laboratory.

    PubMed

    Melanson, Stacy E F; Lindeman, Neal I; Jarolim, Petr

    2007-07-01

    Laboratory automation proposes to improve the quality and efficiency of laboratory operations, and may provide a solution to the quality demands and staff shortages faced by today's clinical laboratories. Several vendors offer automation systems in the United States, with both subtle and obvious differences. Arriving at a decision to automate, and the ensuing evaluation of available products, can be time-consuming and challenging. Although considerable discussion concerning the decision to automate has been published, relatively little attention has been paid to the process of evaluating and selecting automation systems. To outline a process for evaluating and selecting automation systems as a reference for laboratories contemplating laboratory automation. Our Clinical Chemistry Laboratory staff recently evaluated all major laboratory automation systems in the United States, with their respective chemistry and immunochemistry analyzers. Our experience is described and organized according to the selection process, the important considerations in clinical chemistry automation, decisions and implementation, and we give conclusions pertaining to this experience. Including the formation of a committee, workflow analysis, submitting a request for proposal, site visits, and making a final decision, the process of selecting chemistry automation took approximately 14 months. We outline important considerations in automation design, preanalytical processing, analyzer selection, postanalytical storage, and data management. Selecting clinical chemistry laboratory automation is a complex, time-consuming process. Laboratories considering laboratory automation may benefit from the concise overview and narrative and tabular suggestions provided.

  7. Collaborative Decision Model on Stockpile Material of a Traditional Market Infrastructure using Value-Based HBU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Utomo, C.; Rahmawati, Y.; Pararta, D. L.; Ariesta, A.

    2017-11-01

    Readiness of infrastructure establishment is needed in the early phase of real estate development. To meet the needs of retail property in the form of traditional markets, the Government prepares to build a new 1300 units. Traditional market development requires infrastructure development. One of it is the preparation of sand material embankment as much as ± 200,000 m3. With a distance of 30 km, sand material can be delivered to the project site by dump trucks that can only be operated by 2 trip per day. The material is managed by using stockpile method. Decision of stockpile location requires multi person and multi criteria in a collaborative environment. The highest and the best use (HBU) criteria was used to construct a value-based decision hierarchy. Decision makers from five stakeholders analyzed the best of three locations by giving their own preference of development cost and HBU function. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on satisfying options and cooperative game was applied for agreement options and coalition formation on collaborative decision. The result indicates that not all solutions become a possible location for the stockpile material. It shows the ‘best fit’ options process for all decision makers.

  8. Systems Design and Pilot Operation of a Regional Center for Technical Processing for the Libraries of the New England State Universities. NELINET, New England Library Information Network. Progress Report, July 1, 1967 - March 30, 1968, Volume II, Appendices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agenbroad, James E.; And Others

    Included in this volume of appendices to LI 000 979 are acquisitions flow charts; a current operations questionnaire; an algorithm for splitting the Library of Congress call number; analysis of the Machine-Readable Cataloging (MARC II) format; production problems and decisions; operating procedures for information transmittal in the New England…

  9. Metamodeling-based approach for risk assessment and cost estimation: Application to geological carbon sequestration planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Jeong, Hoonyoung; González-Nicolás, Ana; Templeton, Thomas C.

    2018-04-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being evaluated globally as a geoengineering measure for significantly reducing greenhouse emission. However, long-term liability associated with potential leakage from these geologic repositories is perceived as a main barrier of entry to site operators. Risk quantification and impact assessment help CCS operators to screen candidate sites for suitability of CO2 storage. Leakage risks are highly site dependent, and a quantitative understanding and categorization of these risks can only be made possible through broad participation and deliberation of stakeholders, with the use of site-specific, process-based models as the decision basis. Online decision making, however, requires that scenarios be run in real time. In this work, a Python based, Leakage Assessment and Cost Estimation (PyLACE) web application was developed for quantifying financial risks associated with potential leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites. PyLACE aims to assist a collaborative, analytic-deliberative decision making processes by automating metamodel creation, knowledge sharing, and online collaboration. In PyLACE, metamodeling, which is a process of developing faster-to-run surrogates of process-level models, is enabled using a special stochastic response surface method and the Gaussian process regression. Both methods allow consideration of model parameter uncertainties and the use of that information to generate confidence intervals on model outputs. Training of the metamodels is delegated to a high performance computing cluster and is orchestrated by a set of asynchronous job scheduling tools for job submission and result retrieval. As a case study, workflow and main features of PyLACE are demonstrated using a multilayer, carbon storage model.

  10. Interfacing to the brain’s motor decisions

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    It has been long known that neural activity, recorded with electrophysiological methods, contains rich information about a subject’s motor intentions, sensory experiences, allocation of attention, action planning, and even abstract thoughts. All these functions have been the subject of neurophysiological investigations, with the goal of understanding how neuronal activity represents behavioral parameters, sensory inputs, and cognitive functions. The field of brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) strives for a somewhat different goal: it endeavors to extract information from neural modulations to create a communication link between the brain and external devices. Although many remarkable successes have been already achieved in the BMI field, questions remain regarding the possibility of decoding high-order neural representations, such as decision making. Could BMIs be employed to decode the neural representations of decisions underlying goal-directed actions? In this review we lay out a framework that describes the computations underlying goal-directed actions as a multistep process performed by multiple cortical and subcortical areas. We then discuss how BMIs could connect to different decision-making steps and decode the neural processing ongoing before movements are initiated. Such decision-making BMIs could operate as a system with prediction that offers many advantages, such as shorter reaction time, better error processing, and improved unsupervised learning. To present the current state of the art, we review several recent BMIs incorporating decision-making components. PMID:28003406

  11. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

  12. Assessing the usability and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in land management decisions in the southwest UK: challenges and reflections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soares, Marta Bruno

    2017-06-01

    The potential usability and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform decision-making processes is widely accepted. However, the practical use of SCF in Europe is still fairly recent and, as such, current knowledge of the added benefits of SCF in supporting and improving decision-making is limited. This study is based on research conducted to co-develop a semi-operational climate service prototype - the Land Management Tool (LMTool) - with farmers in South West regions of the UK. The value of the SCF provided to the farmers was examined to help us understand the usability and (potential) value of these forecasts in farmers' decisions during the winter months of 2015/2016. The findings from the study point to the need to explore and develop (new) research methods capable of addressing the complexity of the decision-making processes, such as those in the farming sector. The farmers who used the SCF perceived it as useful and usable as it helped them change and adapt their decision-making and thus, avoid unnecessary costs. However, to fully grasp the potential value of using SCF, farmers emphasised the need for the provision of SCF for longer periods of time to allow them to build trust and confidence in the information provided. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about how to assess the use and value of SCF in decision-making processes in a meaningful and effective way.

  13. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

  14. Uncertain decision tree inductive inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarban, L.; Jafari, S.; Fakhrahmad, S. M.

    2011-10-01

    Induction is the process of reasoning in which general rules are formulated based on limited observations of recurring phenomenal patterns. Decision tree learning is one of the most widely used and practical inductive methods, which represents the results in a tree scheme. Various decision tree algorithms have already been proposed such as CLS, ID3, Assistant C4.5, REPTree and Random Tree. These algorithms suffer from some major shortcomings. In this article, after discussing the main limitations of the existing methods, we introduce a new decision tree induction algorithm, which overcomes all the problems existing in its counterparts. The new method uses bit strings and maintains important information on them. This use of bit strings and logical operation on them causes high speed during the induction process. Therefore, it has several important features: it deals with inconsistencies in data, avoids overfitting and handles uncertainty. We also illustrate more advantages and the new features of the proposed method. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the method in comparison with other methods existing in the literature.

  15. Speed in Information Processing with a Computer Driven Visual Display in a Real-time Digital Simulation. M.S. Thesis - Virginia Polytechnic Inst.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kyle, R. G.

    1972-01-01

    Information transfer between the operator and computer-generated display systems is an area where the human factors engineer discovers little useful design data relating human performance to system effectiveness. This study utilized a computer-driven, cathode-ray-tube graphic display to quantify human response speed in a sequential information processing task. The performance criteria was response time to sixteen cell elements of a square matrix display. A stimulus signal instruction specified selected cell locations by both row and column identification. An equal probable number code, from one to four, was assigned at random to the sixteen cells of the matrix and correspondingly required one of four, matched keyed-response alternatives. The display format corresponded to a sequence of diagnostic system maintenance events, that enable the operator to verify prime system status, engage backup redundancy for failed subsystem components, and exercise alternate decision-making judgements. The experimental task bypassed the skilled decision-making element and computer processing time, in order to determine a lower bound on the basic response speed for given stimulus/response hardware arrangement.

  16. The influence of financial officers on the decision-making process in health facilities: a study in Ankara.

    PubMed

    Kisa, Adnan; Kavuncubasi, Sahin; Ersoy, Korkut

    2006-01-01

    Financial officers in health facilities currently face 2 main duties. The first is to help the management team in the decision-making process and the second is to ensure the integrity of financial reports to outsiders and outside agencies. A roster of 191 private outpatient clinics in Ankara was drawn up. Fourteen private hospitals and 66 private clinics were included in the study via systematic sampling. Financial officers' perceptions of involvement in 46 decisions (grouped as strategic decisions, accounting and assessment, and nonfinancial decisions) were gauged using a responsive scale ranging from 1 (no involvement) to 5 (greatly involved). Involvement was defined as the extent of participation in specific decision-making issues. High involvement is assumed to be tantamount to influence and can be visualized in the extent to which financial officers could challenge plans, recommend or disapprove, or take a very significant role in reaching decisions. The results of the study show that in the dynamic environment in which health facilities operate, the financial officer's role is somewhat equivocal. The study suggests that the power and influence of financial officers should be defined in such a way so as to develop a clear role for these members of the management team.

  17. A decision support system using combined-classifier for high-speed data stream in smart grid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Hang; Li, Peng; He, Zhian; Guo, Xiaobin; Fong, Simon; Chen, Huajun

    2016-11-01

    Large volume of high-speed streaming data is generated by big power grids continuously. In order to detect and avoid power grid failure, decision support systems (DSSs) are commonly adopted in power grid enterprises. Among all the decision-making algorithms, incremental decision tree is the most widely used one. In this paper, we propose a combined classifier that is a composite of a cache-based classifier (CBC) and a main tree classifier (MTC). We integrate this classifier into a stream processing engine on top of the DSS such that high-speed steaming data can be transformed into operational intelligence efficiently. Experimental results show that our proposed classifier can return more accurate answers than other existing ones.

  18. The Effect of Shared Information on Pilot/Controller And Controller/Controller Interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John

    1999-01-01

    In order to respond to the increasing demand on limited airspace system resources, a number of applications of information technology have been proposed, or are under investigation, to improve the efficiency, capacity and reliability of ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) operations. Much of the attention in advanced ATM technology has focused on advanced automation systems or decision aiding systems to improve the performance of individual Pilots or Controllers. However, the most significant overall potential for information technology appears to he in increasing the shared information between human agents such as Pilots, Controllers or between interacting Controllers or traffic flow managers. Examples of proposed shared information systems in the US include; Controller Pilot Databank Communication (CPDLC), Traffic Management Advisor (TMA); Automatic Dependent Surveillance (ADS); Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) and NAS Level Common Information Exchange. Air Traffic Management is fundamentally a human centered process consisting of the negotiation, execution and monitoring of contracts between human agents for the allocation of limited airspace, runway and airport surface resources. The decision processes within ATM tend to be Semistructured. Many of the routine elements in ATM decision making on the part of the Controllers or Pilots are well Structured and can be represented by well defined rules or procedures. However in disrupted conditions, the ATM decision processes are often Unstructured and cannot be reduced to a set of discrete rules. As a consequence, the ability to automate ATM processes will be limited and ATM will continue to be a human centric process where the responsibility and the authority for the negotiation will continue to rest with human Controllers and Pilots. The use of information technology to support the human decision process will therefore be an important aspect of ATM modernization. The premise of many of the proposed shared information systems is that the performance of ATM operations will improve with an increase in Shared Situation Awareness between agents (Pilots, Controller, Dispatchers). This will allow better informed control decisions and an improved ability to negotiate between agents. A common information basis may reduce communication load and may increase the level of collaboration in the decision process. In general, information sharing is expected to have advantages for all agents within the system. However there are important questions which remain to be,addressed. For example: What shared information is most important for developing effective Shared Situation Awareness? Are there issues of information saturation? Does information parity create ambiguity in control authority? Will information sharing induce undesirable or unstable gaming behavior between agents? This paper will explore the effect of current and proposed information sharing between different ATM agents. The paper will primarily concentrate on bilateral tactical interactions between specific agents (Pilot/Controller; Controller/Controller; Pilot/Dispatcher; Controller/Dispatcher) however it will also briefly discuss multilateral interaction and more strategic interactions.

  19. Comprehensive integrated planning: A process for the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    1998-05-01

    The Oak Ridge Comprehensive Integrated Plan is intended to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) and contractor personnel in implementing a comprehensive integrated planning process consistent with DOE Order 430.1, Life Cycle Asset Management and Oak Ridge Operations Order 430. DOE contractors are charged with developing and producing the Comprehensive Integrated Plan, which serves as a summary document, providing information from other planning efforts regarding vision statements, missions, contextual conditions, resources and facilities, decision processes, and stakeholder involvement. The Comprehensive Integrated Plan is a planning reference that identifies primary issues regarding major changes in land and facility use andmore » serves all programs and functions on-site as well as the Oak Ridge Operations Office and DOE Headquarters. The Oak Ridge Reservation is a valuable national resource and is managed on the basis of the principles of ecosystem management and sustainable development and how mission, economic, ecological, social, and cultural factors are used to guide land- and facility-use decisions. The long-term goals of the comprehensive integrated planning process, in priority order, are to support DOE critical missions and to stimulate the economy while maintaining a quality environment.« less

  20. Operating lists are created by rational algorithms and use of power. What can a social scientific view offer surgeons?

    PubMed

    Engelmann, Carsten; Grote, Gudela; Geyer, Siegfried; Ametowobla, Dzifa

    2017-02-01

    Algorithms for surgical operation planning are evidence-based. However, choices sometimes have to be made between medically equal solutions e.g. for staffing of sought-after operations. Such decisions are heavily influenced by micropolitics and power. The article examines the array of highly manipulated processes around operation theatre allocation of convenient time slots or staff, which play out in various ways in all of the world's main regional surgical cultures. Essay supported by empiric data from an ethnographic power-analysis targeted to senior executive surgeons. Operations were categorized into "Interesting" (i.e. career-promoting) and "Uninteresting" (i.e. routine) operations. Fifty nine executives responded. Only one respondent contested the categorization of operations into Interesting and Uninteresting. The two categories were staffed according to significantly different criteria (p < 0.05). These were classified as Rational (e.g. "surgical expertise"), Social (e.g. "equity"), and Political (e.g. "status"). For Interesting operations, Rational criteria were deemed most relevant, while for the Uninteresting operations "equity" was ranked top. Moreover, we found significant differences between surgeons' and external observers' (experienced clerical and nursing staff) assessments of staffing decisions, the latter ranking Political motives higher. Decisions were almost exclusively negotiated among surgeons. 33% of respondents said they used subterfuges such as withholding information, incorrect duration-statements, and barter arrangements to defuse possible conflicts. Operating Lists are not merely the product of rational resource optimization. This article demonstrates the methodic feasibility of academic investigation into the typically tacit micro-political mechanisms in List-making. Developing such research further may potentially concern the practice and outcome of surgery.

  1. Transportation systems evaluation methodology development and applications, phase 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthau, A. R.; Jacobson, I. D.; Richards, L. C.

    1981-01-01

    Transportation systems or proposed changes in current systems are evaluated. Four principal evaluation criteria are incorporated in the process, operating performance characteristics as viewed by potential users, decisions based on the perceived impacts of the system, estimating what is required to reduce the system to practice; and predicting the ability of the concept to attract financial support. A series of matrix multiplications in which the various matrices represent evaluations in a logical sequence of the various discrete steps in a management decision process is used. One or more alternatives are compared with the current situation, and the result provides a numerical rating which determines the desirability of each alternative relative to the norm and to each other. The steps in the decision process are isolated so that contributions of each to the final result are readily analyzed. The ability to protect against bias on the part of the evaluators, and the fact that system parameters which are basically qualitative in nature can be easily included are advantageous.

  2. Ontology-Based Gap Analysis for Technology Selection: A Knowledge Management Framework for the Support of Equipment Purchasing Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macris, Aristomenis M.; Georgakellos, Dimitrios A.

    Technology selection decisions such as equipment purchasing and supplier selection are decisions of strategic importance to companies. The nature of these decisions usually is complex, unstructured and thus, difficult to be captured in a way that will be efficiently reusable. Knowledge reusability is of paramount importance since it enables users participate actively in process design/redesign activities stimulated by the changing technology selection environment. This paper addresses the technology selection problem through an ontology-based approach that captures and makes reusable the equipment purchasing process and assists in identifying (a) the specifications requested by the users' organization, (b) those offered by various candidate vendors' organizations and (c) in performing specifications gap analysis as a prerequisite for effective and efficient technology selection. This approach has practical appeal, operational simplicity, and the potential for both immediate and long-term strategic impact. An example from the iron and steel industry is also presented to illustrate the approach.

  3. 7 CFR 1486.303 - What specific contracting procedures must be adhered to?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... MARKETS PROGRAM Program Operations § 1486.303 What specific contracting procedures must be adhered to? (a...) Perform some form of fee, price, or cost analysis, such as a comparison of price quotations to market...) Document the decision-making process. ...

  4. 22 CFR 1102.2 - Definitions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... for examination and copying, or furnishing a copy of records. Duplication refers to the process of... organization, functions, policies, decisions, procedures, operations, or other activities of the Government or... make their products available for purchase or subscription by the general public. In the case of...

  5. Controlling equine influenza: policy networks and decision-making during the 2007 Australian equine influenza outbreak.

    PubMed

    Schemann, K; Gillespie, J A; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P; Dhand, N K

    2014-10-01

    Rapid, evidence-based decision-making is critical during a disease outbreak response; however, compliance by stakeholders is necessary to ensure that such decisions are effective - especially if the response depends on voluntary action. This mixed method study evaluated technical policy decision-making processes during the 2007 outbreak of equine influenza in Australia by identifying and analysing the stakeholder network involved and the factors driving policy decision-making. The study started with a review of the outbreak literature and published policy documents. This identified six policy issues regarding policy modifications or differing interpretations by different state agencies. Data on factors influencing the decision-making process for these six issues and on stakeholder interaction were collected using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 24 individuals representing 12 industry and government organizations. Quantitative data were analysed using social network analysis. Qualitative data were coded and patterns matched to test a pre-determined general theory using a method called theory-oriented process-tracing. Results revealed that technical policy decisions were framed by social, political, financial, strategic and operational considerations. Industry stakeholders had influence through formal pre-existing channels, yet specific gaps in stakeholder interaction were overcome by reactive alliances formed during the outbreak response but outside the established system. Overall, the crisis management system and response were seen as positive, and 75-100% of individuals interviewed were supportive of, had interest in and considered the outcome as good for the majority of policy decisions, yet only 46-75% of those interviewed considered that they had influence on these decisions. Training to increase awareness and knowledge of emergency animal diseases (EADs) and response systems will improve stakeholder participation in emergency disease management and preparedness for future EAD incursions. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  6. Air Force Command and Control: The Path Ahead. Volume 1: Summary

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-12-01

    benefits of an integrated approach to implementation. The organization, management, and process are not in place to carry out the evolution in...critical support for successful EAF operations. 9 Air Force Space Operations Center (AFSPACE) AOC. The 14th Air Force AFSPACE AOC is an in- place ...right times and places , so that they can pass consistent data that convert to shared understanding, ultimately producing cooperative decision making

  7. Navigating the boundary of science for decision making at the state and local level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzales, L. M.; Wood, C.; Boland, M. A.; Rose, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    Scientific information should play a vital role in many decision making processes, yet issues incorporating geoscience information often arise due to inherent differences between how scientists and decision makers operate. Decision makers and scientists have different priorities, produce work at different rates, and often lack an understanding of each others' institutional constraints. Boundary organizations, entities that facilitate collaboration and information flow across traditional boundaries such as that between scientists and decision makers, are in a unique position to improve the dialogue between disparate groups. The American Geosciences Institute (AGI), a nonprofit federation of 50 geoscience societies and organizations, is linking the geoscience and decision-making communities through its Critical Issues Program. AGI's Critical Issues program has first-hand experience in improving the transfer of information across the science-decision making boundary, particularly in areas pertaining to water resources and hazards. This presentation will focus on how, by collaborating with organizations representing the decision making and geoscience communities to inform our program development, we have created our three main content types - website, webinar series, and research database - to better meet the needs of the decision-making process. The program presents existing geoscience information in a way that makes the interconnected nature of geoscience topics more easily understood, encourages discussion between the scientific and decision-making communities, and has established a trusted source of impartial geoscience information. These efforts have focused on state and local decision makers—groups that increasingly influence climate and risk-related decisions, yet often lack the resources to access and understand geoscience information.

  8. Modelling technological process of ion-exchange filtration of fluids in porous media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravshanov, N.; Saidov, U. M.

    2018-05-01

    Solution of an actual problem related to the process of filtration and dehydration of liquid and ionic solutions from gel particles and heavy ionic compounds is considered in the paper. This technological process is realized during the preparation and cleaning of chemical solutions, drinking water, pharmaceuticals, liquid fuels, products for public use, etc. For the analysis, research, determination of the main parameters of the technological process and operating modes of filter units and for support in managerial decision-making, a mathematical model is developed. Using the developed model, a series of computational experiments on a computer is carried out. The results of numerical calculations are illustrated in the form of graphs. Based on the analysis of numerical experiments, the conclusions are formulated that serve as the basis for making appropriate managerial decisions.

  9. Decision support tool for diagnosing the source of variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masood, Ibrahim; Azrul Azhad Haizan, Mohamad; Norbaya Jumali, Siti; Ghazali, Farah Najihah Mohd; Razali, Hazlin Syafinaz Md; Shahir Yahya, Mohd; Azlan, Mohd Azwir bin

    2017-08-01

    Identifying the source of unnatural variation (SOV) in manufacturing process is essential for quality control. The Shewhart control chart patterns (CCPs) are commonly used to monitor the SOV. However, a proper interpretation of CCPs associated to its SOV requires a high skill industrial practitioner. Lack of knowledge in process engineering will lead to erroneous corrective action. The objective of this study is to design the operating procedures of computerized decision support tool (DST) for process diagnosis. The DST is an embedded tool in CCPs recognition scheme. Design methodology involves analysis of relationship between geometrical features, manufacturing process and CCPs. The DST contents information about CCPs and its possible root cause error and description on SOV phenomenon such as process deterioration in tool bluntness, offsetting tool, loading error, and changes in materials hardness. The DST will be useful for an industrial practitioner in making effective troubleshooting.

  10. A Conceptual Design of a Departure Planner Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anagnostakis, Ioannis; Idris, Husni R.; Clark, John-Paul; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Odoni, Amedeo R.; Hall, William D.

    2000-01-01

    Terminal area Air Traffic Management handles both arriving and departing traffic. To date, research work on terminal area operations has focused primarily on the arrival flow and typically departures are taken into account only in an approximate manner. However, arrivals and departures are highly coupled processes especially in the terminal airspace, with complex interactions and sharing of the same airport resources between arrivals and departures taking place in practically every important terminal area. Therefore, the addition of automation aids for departures, possibly in co-operation with existing arrival flow automation systems, could have a profound contribution in enhancing the overall efficiency of airport operations. This paper presents the conceptual system architecture for such an automation aid, the Departure Planner (DP). This architecture can be used as a core in the development of decision-aiding systems to assist air traffic controllers in improving the performance of departure operations and optimize runway time allocation among different operations at major congested airports. The design of such systems is expected to increase the overall efficiency of terminal area operations and yield benefits for all stakeholders involved in Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations, users as well as service providers.

  11. Gambling with your life: the process of breast cancer treatment decision making in Chinese women.

    PubMed

    Lam, Wendy Wt; Fielding, Richard; Chan, Miranda; Chow, Louis; Or, Amy

    2005-01-01

    Treatment decision making (TDM) studies have primarily focused on assessing TDM quality and predominantly presume rational analytic processes as the gold standard. In a grounded theory study of 22 Hong Kong Chinese women following breast surgery who completed an in-depth interview exploring the process of TDM in breast cancer (BC), narrative data showed that discovery of a breast abnormality and emotional responses to BC diagnosis influence the TDM process. Lack of guidance from surgeons impaired TDM. Decisions were, for the most part, made using intuitive, pragmatic and emotionally driven criteria in the absence of complete information. The experience of TDM, which was likened to gambling, did not end once the decision was made but unfolded while waiting for surgery and the post-operative report. In this waiting period, women were emotionally overwhelmed by fear of death and the uncertainty of the surgical outcome, and equivocated over whether they had made the 'right' choice. This suggests that Chinese women feel they are gambling with their lives during TDM. These women are particularly emotionally vulnerable whilst waiting for their surgery and the post-surgical clinical pathology results. Providing emotional support is particularly important at this time when these women are overwhelmed by uncertainty. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. The Best Interest Standard: Same Name but Different Roles in Pediatric Bioethics and Child Rights Frameworks.

    PubMed

    Ross, Lainie Friedman; Swota, Alissa Hurwitz

    2017-01-01

    This article explores the intersection of pediatric bioethics and child rights by examining the best interest standard as it operates within the pediatric bioethics framework in the United States and the child rights framework based on the UN 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). While the "best interest of the child" standard is central to both pediatric bioethics and the child rights community, it operates only as a guidance principle, and not as an intervention principle, in decision-making within U.S. pediatric bioethics, whereas it operates as both a guidance and intervention principle in the child rights community. The differences in how the best interest standard is operationalized lead to different roles for the family, the state, and the minor in decision-making processes and outcomes. We examine the recent case of Charlie Gard to illustrate some of these differences.

  13. Military applications of emission and susceptibility data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohlbacher, Howard; Walker, William

    A basic design consideration for new military communications-electronics (C-E) equipment is that it be electromagnetically compatible with the environment in which it will operate. A military standard (MIL-STD-461B) describes the design requirements for the control of the unintentional electromagnetic emission and susceptibility characteristics of electronic equipment and subsystems designed or procured by the US Department of Defense. For new systems which fail the test standards of MIL-STD-461B with regard to radiated susceptibility (RSO3) or radiated emissions (RE02), a decision must be made to fix the new system or to field it without a fix. A procedure to aid in the decision process is outlined. The minimum separation distances required between a failed test system and other C-E equipment in its environment to avoid interference are determined. If this distance is operationally acceptable, the failed unit may be considered to be operationally compatible with its electromagnetic environment.

  14. The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mumaw, R.J.

    1994-08-01

    Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitivemore » skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress.« less

  15. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages of the Neyrpic® gate are ease of operation and capacity to measure discharge flows. Overall, the application to the Qazvin irrigation network demonstrates the utility of the proposed DA framework in selecting appropriate structures for regulating water flows in irrigation canals. This framework systematically aids the decision process by capturing decisions made at various levels (individual farmers to high-level management). It can be applied to other cases where a new irrigation network is being designed, or where changes in irrigation structures need to be identified to improve flow control in existing networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk-based process safety assessment and control measures design for offshore process facilities.

    PubMed

    Khan, Faisal I; Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir

    2002-09-02

    Process operation is the most hazardous activity next to the transportation and drilling operation on an offshore oil and gas (OOG) platform. Past experiences of onshore and offshore oil and gas activities have revealed that a small mis-happening in the process operation might escalate to a catastrophe. This is of especial concern in the OOG platform due to the limited space and compact geometry of the process area, less ventilation, and difficult escape routes. On an OOG platform, each extra control measure, which is implemented, not only occupies space on the platform and increases congestion but also adds extra load to the platform. Eventualities in the OOG platform process operation can be avoided through incorporating the appropriate control measures at the early design stage. In this paper, the authors describe a methodology for risk-based process safety decision making for OOG activities. The methodology is applied to various offshore process units, that is, the compressor, separators, flash drum and driers of an OOG platform. Based on the risk potential, appropriate safety measures are designed for each unit. This paper also illustrates that implementation of the designed safety measures reduces the high Fatal accident rate (FAR) values to an acceptable level.

  17. An evaluation of recollection and familiarity in Alzheimer’s disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment using receiver operating characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Ally, Brandon A.; Gold, Carl A.; Budson, Andrew E.

    2009-01-01

    There is a need to investigate exactly how memory breaks down in the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Examining what aspects of memorial processing remain relatively intact early in the disease process will allow us to develop behavioral interventions and possible drug therapies focused on these intact processes. Several recent studies have worked to understand the processes of recollection and familiarity in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and very mild AD. Although there is general agreement that these patient groups are relatively unable to use recollection to support veridical recognition decisions, there has been some question as to how well these patients can use familiarity. The current study used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and a levels of processing manipulation to understand the effect of MCI and AD on the estimates of recollection and familiarity. Results showed that patients with MCI and AD were impaired in both recollection and familiarity, regardless of the depth of encoding. These results are discussed in relation to disease pathology and in the context of recent conflicting evidence as to whether familiarity remains intact in patients with MCI. The authors highlight differences in stimuli type and task difficulty as possibly modulating the ability of these patients to successfully use familiarity in support of memorial decisions. PMID:19101064

  18. Integrated Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation, and Accreditation Strategy for Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations and provide critical information and data supporting key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision-making. Their usage requires the implementation of a rigorous approach to verification, validation and accreditation (W&A) and establishment of formal process and practices associated with their application. To ensure decision-making is suitably supported by information (data, models, test beds) from activities (studies, exercises) from M&S applications that are understood and characterized, ESMD is establishing formal, tailored W&A processes and practices. In addition, to ensure the successful application of M&S within ESMD, a formal process for the certification of analysts that use M&S is being implemented. This presentation will highlight NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management approach for M&S W&A to ensure decision-makers receive timely information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality.

  19. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full paper), one opinion shared is that the rational, economic, deliberate listing/evaluation of all options is NOT representative of how many decision are made. A framework gaining interest lately describes two systems predominantly at work: intuition and reasoning (Kahneman, 2003). Intuition is fast, automatic, and parallel contrasted with the more effortful, deliberative, and sequential reasoning. One of the issues of contention is that considerable research is stacked supporting both sides claiming that intuition is: • A hallmark of expertise responsible for rapid, optimal decisions in the face of adversity • A vulnerability where biases serve as decision traps leading to wrong choices Using seminal studies from a range of domains and tasking, potential solutions for SSA decision support will be offered. Important issues such as managing uncertainty, framing inquiries, and information architecture, and contextual cues will be discussed. The purpose is to provide awareness of the human limitations and capabilities in complex decision making so engineers and designers can consider such factors in their development of SSA tools.

  20. How to guide - transit operations decision support systems (TODSS).

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-01

    Transit Operations Decision Support Systems (TODSS) are decision support systems designed to support dispatchers in real-time bus operations management in response to incidents, special events, and other changing conditions in order to restore servic...

  1. Soft Decision Analyzer and Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Steele, Glen F. (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.

  2. Soft Decision Analyzer and Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Steele, Glen F. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.

  3. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

  4. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.

  5. [Effect of alcohol intake on the ability to pilot aircraft].

    PubMed

    Ushakov, I B; Egorov, S V

    1996-01-01

    During the initial 4 hours after alcohol intake at a dose of 1.9 g/kg aircraft operators displayed disturbances in the psychic processes and functions responsible for each (from information reception and processing up to decision-making and building-up the controlling actions) structural elements in their activity resulting in considerable limitation or a complete failure to pilot aircraft. Main disorders included inability to correctly analyse flight situation and loss of skills to automatically control simulator, a sudden depletion of psychophysiological reserves and deterioration of operator's reliability. Less elaborated professional skills appear to be the most vulnerable.

  6. Configuration Management, Capacity Planning Decision Support, Modeling and Simulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-12-01

    flow includes both top-down and bottom-up requirements. The flow also includes hardware, software and transfer acquisition, installation, operation ... management and upgrade as required. Satisfaction of a users needs and requirements is a difficult and detailed process. The key assumptions at this

  7. 75 FR 78722 - Intent To Prepare Programmatic Environmental Assessment Statement for the Nationwide...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-16

    ... sensor network and provide extended sensor network and components to fill critical situational awareness... different agencies), and share resources. The IOCs will improve tactical decision-making, situational awareness, operations monitoring/ interoperability, rules-based processing, and joint planning in a...

  8. Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation in a Mission-Assigned Astronaut

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauer, Peter A.; Polk, J. D.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation will explore the clinical and administrative conundrums faced by the flight surgeon upon discovering asymptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation seven months prior to scheduled long duration spaceflight. The presenter will discuss the decision-making process as well as the clinical and operational outcomes.

  9. Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szatkowski, Gerard P.; Schultz, Roger

    1988-11-01

    The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

  10. Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szatkowski, Gerard P.; Schultz, Roger

    1988-01-01

    The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

  11. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically, this paper will describe the processes that the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Technology Assessment and Integration Team (TAIT) has used for several years and how those processes have been customized to meet customer needs while staying robust and defensible. This paper will show how HEOMD uses these analyses results to assist with making informed portfolio investment decisions. The paper will also highlight which human exploration capabilities and technologies typically rank high regardless of the specific design reference mission. The paper will conclude by describing future capability and technology ranking activities that will continue o leverage subject matter experts (SME) input while also incorporating more model-based analysis.

  12. Hierarchical analytical and simulation modelling of human-machine systems with interference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braginsky, M. Ya; Tarakanov, D. V.; Tsapko, S. G.; Tsapko, I. V.; Baglaeva, E. A.

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the principles of building the analytical and simulation model of the human operator and the industrial control system hardware and software. E-networks as the extension of Petri nets are used as the mathematical apparatus. This approach allows simulating complex parallel distributed processes in human-machine systems. The structural and hierarchical approach is used as the building method for the mathematical model of the human operator. The upper level of the human operator is represented by the logical dynamic model of decision making based on E-networks. The lower level reflects psychophysiological characteristics of the human-operator.

  13. Beyond Control Centers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trimble, Jay

    2017-01-01

    For NASA's Resource Prospector (RP) Lunar Rover Mission, we are moving away from a control center concept, to a fully distributed operation utilizing control nodes, with decision support from anywhere via mobile devices. This operations concept will utilize distributed information systems, notifications, mobile data access, and optimized mobile data display for off-console decision support. We see this concept of operations as a step in the evolution of mission operations from a central control center concept to a mission operations anywhere concept. The RP example is part of a trend, in which mission expertise for design, development and operations is distributed across countries and across the globe. Future spacecraft operations will be most cost efficient and flexible by following this distributed expertise, enabling operations from anywhere. For the RP mission we arrived at the decision to utilize a fully distributed operations team, where everyone operates from their home institution, based on evaluating the following factors: the requirement for physical proximity for near-real time command and control decisions; the cost of distributed control nodes vs. a centralized control center; the impact on training and mission preparation of flying the team to a central location. Physical proximity for operational decisions is seldom required, though certain categories of decisions, such as launch abort, or close coordination for mission or safety-critical near-real-time command and control decisions may benefit from co-location. The cost of facilities and operational infrastructure has not been found to be a driving factor for location in our studies. Mission training and preparation benefit from having all operators train and operate from home institutions.

  14. Improved CDMA Performance Using Parallel Interference Cancellation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Marvin; Divsalar, Dariush

    1995-01-01

    This report considers a general parallel interference cancellation scheme that significantly reduces the degradation effect of user interference but with a lesser implementation complexity than the maximum-likelihood technique. The scheme operates on the fact that parallel processing simultaneously removes from each user the interference produced by the remaining users accessing the channel in an amount proportional to their reliability. The parallel processing can be done in multiple stages. The proposed scheme uses tentative decision devices with different optimum thresholds at the multiple stages to produce the most reliably received data for generation and cancellation of user interference. The 1-stage interference cancellation is analyzed for three types of tentative decision devices, namely, hard, null zone, and soft decision, and two types of user power distribution, namely, equal and unequal powers. Simulation results are given for a multitude of different situations, in particular, those cases for which the analysis is too complex.

  15. Implementation Issues for Departure Planning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John; Feron, Eric; Clarke, John-Paul; Odoni, Amedeo

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the proposed effort is to investigate issues associated with the design and implementation of decision aiding tools to assist in improving the departure process at congested airports. This effort follows a preliminary investigation of potential Departure Planning approaches and strategies, which identified potential benefits in departure efficiency, and also in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft in the departure queue. The preliminary study bas based, in large part, on observations and analysis of departure processes at Boston, Logan airport. The objective of this follow-on effort is to address key implementation issues and to expand the observational base to include airports with different constraints and traffic demand. Specifically, the objectives of this research are to: (1) Expand the observational base to include airports with different underlying operational dynamics. (2) Develop prototype decision aiding algorithms/approaches and assess potential benefits. and (3) Investigate Human Machine Integration (HMI) issues associated with decision aids in tower environments.

  16. Civil Information and Intelligence Fusion: Making Non-Traditional into New Traditional for the JTF Commander

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-22

    accessible by intelligence professionals and intelligence organizations frequently do not dedicate enough effort to support the process of...In every theater, Commanders have developed non-doctrinal organizations uniquely suited to their mission in an effort to integrate socio-cultural...information into military decision-making processes. A prime example of a non-traditional organization is the Stability Operations Information

  17. Maintenance and operations decision support tool : Clarus regional demonstrations.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-01-01

    Weather affects almost all maintenance activity decisions. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) tested a new decision support system for maintenance in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois called the Maintenance and Operations Decision Support System (MO...

  18. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  19. Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O. S.

    2016-01-01

    When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes. PMID:27375466

  20. Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O S

    2016-01-01

    When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes.

  1. Knapsack - TOPSIS Technique for Vertical Handover in Heterogeneous Wireless Network

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    In a heterogeneous wireless network, handover techniques are designed to facilitate anywhere/anytime service continuity for mobile users. Consistent best-possible access to a network with widely varying network characteristics requires seamless mobility management techniques. Hence, the vertical handover process imposes important technical challenges. Handover decisions are triggered for continuous connectivity of mobile terminals. However, bad network selection and overload conditions in the chosen network can cause fallout in the form of handover failure. In order to maintain the required Quality of Service during the handover process, decision algorithms should incorporate intelligent techniques. In this paper, a new and efficient vertical handover mechanism is implemented using a dynamic programming method from the operation research discipline. This dynamic programming approach, which is integrated with the Technique to Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, provides the mobile user with the best handover decisions. Moreover, in this proposed handover algorithm a deterministic approach which divides the network into zones is incorporated into the network server in order to derive an optimal solution. The study revealed that this method is found to achieve better performance and QoS support to users and greatly reduce the handover failures when compared to the traditional TOPSIS method. The decision arrived at the zone gateway using this operational research analytical method (known as the dynamic programming knapsack approach together with Technique to Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) yields remarkably better results in terms of the network performance measures such as throughput and delay. PMID:26237221

  2. Knapsack--TOPSIS Technique for Vertical Handover in Heterogeneous Wireless Network.

    PubMed

    Malathy, E M; Muthuswamy, Vijayalakshmi

    2015-01-01

    In a heterogeneous wireless network, handover techniques are designed to facilitate anywhere/anytime service continuity for mobile users. Consistent best-possible access to a network with widely varying network characteristics requires seamless mobility management techniques. Hence, the vertical handover process imposes important technical challenges. Handover decisions are triggered for continuous connectivity of mobile terminals. However, bad network selection and overload conditions in the chosen network can cause fallout in the form of handover failure. In order to maintain the required Quality of Service during the handover process, decision algorithms should incorporate intelligent techniques. In this paper, a new and efficient vertical handover mechanism is implemented using a dynamic programming method from the operation research discipline. This dynamic programming approach, which is integrated with the Technique to Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, provides the mobile user with the best handover decisions. Moreover, in this proposed handover algorithm a deterministic approach which divides the network into zones is incorporated into the network server in order to derive an optimal solution. The study revealed that this method is found to achieve better performance and QoS support to users and greatly reduce the handover failures when compared to the traditional TOPSIS method. The decision arrived at the zone gateway using this operational research analytical method (known as the dynamic programming knapsack approach together with Technique to Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) yields remarkably better results in terms of the network performance measures such as throughput and delay.

  3. Aortic valve replacement during acute rheumatic fever.

    PubMed

    Khan, A; Chi, S; Gonzalez-Lavin, L

    1978-07-01

    Emergency aortic valve replacement was performed during an attack of acute rheumatic fever in a 12-year-old black boy. He had an uneventful recovery and has remained asymptomatic 27 months after operation. In the light of this experience and that of others, one might conclude that the decision to operate on these patients should be based on the severity of the haemodynamic derangement rather than on the state of activity in the rheumatic process.

  4. Theory and implementation of summarization: Improving sensor interpretation for spacecraft operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swartwout, Michael Alden

    New paradigms in space missions require radical changes in spacecraft operations. In the past, operations were insulated from competitive pressures of cost, quality and time by system infrastructures, technological limitations and historical precedent. However, modern demands now require that operations meet competitive performance goals. One target for improvement is the telemetry downlink, where significant resources are invested to acquire thousands of measurements for human interpretation. This cost-intensive method is used because conventional operations are not based on formal methodologies but on experiential reasoning and incrementally adapted procedures. Therefore, to improve the telemetry downlink it is first necessary to invent a rational framework for discussing operations. This research explores operations as a feedback control problem, develops the conceptual basis for the use of spacecraft telemetry, and presents a method to improve performance. The method is called summarization, a process to make vehicle data more useful to operators. Summarization enables rational trades for telemetry downlink by defining and quantitatively ranking these elements: all operational decisions, the knowledge needed to inform each decision, and all possible sensor mappings to acquire that knowledge. Summarization methods were implemented for the Sapphire microsatellite; conceptual health management and system models were developed and a degree-of-observability metric was defined. An automated tool was created to generate summarization methods from these models. Methods generated using a Sapphire model were compared against the conventional operations plan. Summarization was shown to identify the key decisions and isolate the most appropriate sensors. Secondly, a form of summarization called beacon monitoring was experimentally verified. Beacon monitoring automates the anomaly detection and notification tasks and migrates these responsibilities to the space segment. A set of experiments using Sapphire demonstrated significant cost and time savings compared to conventional operations. Summarization is based on rational concepts for defining and understanding operations. Therefore, it enables additional trade studies that were formerly not possible and also can form the basis for future detailed research into spacecraft operations.

  5. Making Human Spaceflight Practical and Affordable: Spacecraft Designs and their Degree of Operability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crocker, Alan R.

    2011-01-01

    As we push toward new and diverse space transportation capabilities, reduction in operations cost becomes increasingly important. Achieving affordable and safe human spaceflight capabilities will be the mark of success for new programs and new providers. The ability to perceive the operational implications of design decisions is crucial in developing safe yet cost competitive space transportation systems. Any human spaceflight program - government or commercial - must make countless decisions either to implement spacecraft system capabilities or adopt operational constraints or workarounds to account for the lack of such spacecraft capabilities. These decisions can benefit from the collective experience that NASA has accumulated in building and operating crewed spacecraft over the last five decades. This paper reviews NASA s history in developing and operating human rated spacecraft, reviewing the key aspects of spacecraft design and their resultant impacts on operations phase complexity and cost. Specific examples from current and past programs - including the Space Shuttle and International Space Station - are provided to illustrate design traits that either increase or increase cost and complexity associated with spacecraft operations. These examples address factors such as overall design performance margins, levels of redundancy, degree of automated failure response, type and quantity of command and telemetry interfaces, and the definition of reference scenarios for analysis and test. Each example - from early program requirements, design implementation and resulting real-time operations experience - to tell the end-to-end "story" Based on these experiences, specific techniques are recommended to enable earlier and more effective assessment of operations concerns during the design process. A formal method for the assessment of spacecraft operability is defined and results of such operability assessments for recent spacecraft designs are provided. Recent experience in applying these techniques to Orion spacecraft development is reviewed to highlight the direct benefits of early operational assessment and collaborative development efforts.

  6. Engineering tradeoff problems viewed as multiple objective optimizations and the VODCA methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, T. W.; Thurgood, R. L.

    1984-05-01

    This paper summarizes a rational model for making engineering tradeoff decisions. The model is a hybrid from the fields of social welfare economics, communications, and operations research. A solution methodology (Vector Optimization Decision Convergence Algorithm - VODCA) firmly grounded in the economic model is developed both conceptually and mathematically. The primary objective for developing the VODCA methodology was to improve the process for extracting relative value information about the objectives from the appropriate decision makers. This objective was accomplished by employing data filtering techniques to increase the consistency of the relative value information and decrease the amount of information required. VODCA is applied to a simplified hypothetical tradeoff decision problem. Possible use of multiple objective analysis concepts and the VODCA methodology in product-line development and market research are discussed.

  7. Efficient cost-sensitive human-machine collaboration for offline signature verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coetzer, Johannes; Swanepoel, Jacques; Sabourin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    We propose a novel strategy for the optimal combination of human and machine decisions in a cost-sensitive environment. The proposed algorithm should be especially beneficial to financial institutions where off-line signatures, each associated with a specific transaction value, require authentication. When presented with a collection of genuine and fraudulent training signatures, produced by so-called guinea pig writers, the proficiency of a workforce of human employees and a score-generating machine can be estimated and represented in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) space. Using a set of Boolean fusion functions, the majority vote decision of the human workforce is combined with each threshold-specific machine-generated decision. The performance of the candidate ensembles is estimated and represented in ROC space, after which only the optimal ensembles and associated decision trees are retained. When presented with a questioned signature linked to an arbitrary writer, the system first uses the ROC-based cost gradient associated with the transaction value to select the ensemble that minimises the expected cost, and then uses the corresponding decision tree to authenticate the signature in question. We show that, when utilising the entire human workforce, the incorporation of a machine streamlines the authentication process and decreases the expected cost for all operating conditions.

  8. Optogenetic Inhibition Reveals Distinct Roles for Basolateral Amygdala Activity at Discrete Time Points during Risky Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Hernandez, Caesar M; Singhal, Sarthak; Kelly, Kyle B; Frazier, Charles J; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2017-11-29

    Decision making is a multifaceted process, consisting of several distinct phases that likely require different cognitive operations. Previous work showed that the basolateral amygdala (BLA) is a critical substrate for decision making involving risk of punishment; however, it is unclear how the BLA is recruited at different stages of the decision process. To this end, the current study used optogenetics to inhibit the BLA during specific task phases in a model of risky decision making (risky decision-making task) in which rats choose between a small, "safe" reward and a large reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock punishment. Male Long-Evans rats received intra-BLA microinjections of viral vectors carrying either halorhodopsin (eNpHR3.0-mCherry) or mCherry alone (control) followed by optic fiber implants and were trained in the risky decision-making task. Laser delivery during the task occurred during intertrial interval, deliberation, or reward outcome phases, the latter of which was further divided into the three possible outcomes (small, safe; large, unpunished; large, punished). Inhibition of the BLA selectively during the deliberation phase decreased choice of the large, risky outcome (decreased risky choice). In contrast, BLA inhibition selectively during delivery of the large, punished outcome increased risky choice. Inhibition had no effect during the other phases, nor did laser delivery affect performance in control rats. Collectively, these data indicate that the BLA can either inhibit or promote choice of risky options, depending on the phase of the decision process in which it is active. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To date, most behavioral neuroscience research on neural mechanisms of decision making has used techniques that preclude assessment of distinct phases of the decision process. Here we show that optogenetic inhibition of the BLA has opposite effects on choice behavior in a rat model of risky decision making, depending on the phase in which inhibition occurs. BLA inhibition during a period of deliberation between small, safe and large, risky outcomes decreased risky choice. In contrast, BLA inhibition during receipt of the large, punished outcome increased risky choice. These findings highlight the importance of temporally targeted approaches to understand neural substrates underlying complex cognitive processes. More importantly, they reveal novel information about dynamic BLA modulation of risky choice. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/3711537-12$15.00/0.

  9. DATA QUALITY OBJECTIVE SUMMARY REPORT FOR THE 105 K EAST ION EXCHANGE COLUMN MONOLITH

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    JOCHEN, R.M.

    2007-08-02

    The 105-K East (KE) Basin Ion Exchange Column (IXC) cells, lead caves, and the surrounding vault are to be removed as necessary components in implementing ''Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order'' (Ecology et al. 2003) milestone M-034-32 (Complete Removal of the K East Basin Structure). The IXCs consist of six units located in the KE Basin, three in operating positions in cells and three stored in a lead cave. Methods to remove the IXCs from the KE Basin were evaluated in KBC-28343, ''Disposal of K East Basin Ion Exchange Column Evaluation''. The method selected for removal was grouting themore » six IXCs into a single monolith for disposal at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF). Grout will be added to the IXC cells, IXC lead caves containing spent IXCs, and in the spaces between the lead cave walls and metal skin, to immobilize the contaminants, provide self-shielding, minimize void space, and provide a structurally stable waste form. The waste to be offered for disposal is the encapsulated monolith defined by the exterior surfaces of the vault and the lower surface of the underlying slab. This document presents summary of the data quality objective (DQO) process establishing the decisions and data required to support decision-making activities for the disposition of the IXC monolith. The DQO process is completed in accordance with the seven-step planning process described in EPA QA/G-4, ''Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process'', which is used to clarify and study objectives; define the appropriate type, quantity, and quality of data; and support defensible decision-making. The DQO process involves the following steps: (1) state the problem; (2) identify the decision; (3) identify the inputs to the decision; (4) define the boundaries of the study; (5) develop a decision rule (DR); (6) specify tolerable limits on decision errors; and (7) optimize the design for obtaining data.« less

  10. Mushroom bodies regulate habit formation in Drosophila.

    PubMed

    Brembs, Björn

    2009-08-25

    To make good decisions, we evaluate past choices to guide later decisions. In most situations, we have the opportunity to simultaneously learn about both the consequences of our choice (i.e., operantly) and the stimuli associated with correct or incorrect choices (i.e., classically). Interestingly, in many species, including humans, these learning processes occasionally lead to irrational decisions. An extreme case is the habitual drug user consistently administering the drug despite the negative consequences, but we all have experience with our own, less severe habits. The standard animal model employs a combination of operant and classical learning components to bring about habit formation in rodents. After extended training, these animals will press a lever even if the outcome associated with lever-pressing is no longer desired. In this study, experiments with wild-type and transgenic flies revealed that a prominent insect neuropil, the mushroom bodies (MBs), regulates habit formation in flies by inhibiting the operant learning system when a predictive stimulus is present. This inhibition enables generalization of the classical memory and prevents premature habit formation. Extended training in wild-type flies produced a phenocopy of MB-impaired flies, such that generalization was abolished and goal-directed actions were transformed into habitual responses.

  11. Review of retrofit strategies decision system in historic perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostenaru Dan, M. D.

    2004-06-01

    Urban development is a process. In structuring and developing its phases different actors are implied, who act under different, sometimes opposite, dynamic conditions and within different reference systems. This paper aims to explore the contribution of participatism to disaster mitigation, when this concerns earthquake impact on urban settlements, through the support provided to multi-criteria decision in matters of retrofit. The research broadness in field of decision making on one side and the lack of a specific model for the retrofit of existing buildings on another side led to an extensive review of the state of the art in related models to address the issue. Core idea in the selection of existing models has been the preoccupation for collaborative issues, in other words, the consideration for the different actors implied in the planning process. The historic perspective on participative planning models is made from the view of two generations of citizen implication. The first approaches focus on the participation of the building owner/inhabitant in the planning process of building construction. As current strategies building rehabilitation and selection from alternative retrofit strategies are presented. New developments include innovative models using the internet or spatial databases. The investigated participation approaches show, that participation and communication as a more comprehensive term are an old topic in the field politics-democratisation-urbanism. In all cases it can be talked of "successful learning processes", of the improvement of the level of the professional debate. More than 30 years history of participation marked a transition in understanding the concept: from participation, based on a central decision process leading to a solution controlled and steered by the political-administrative system, to communication, characterised by simultaneous decision processes taking place outside politics and administration in co-operative procedures.

  12. Launch vehicle operations cost reduction through artificial intelligence techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, Tom C., Jr.

    1988-01-01

    NASA's Kennedy Space Center has attempted to develop AI methods in order to reduce the cost of launch vehicle ground operations as well as to improve the reliability and safety of such operations. Attention is presently given to cost savings estimates for systems involving launch vehicle firing-room software and hardware real-time diagnostics, as well as the nature of configuration control and the real-time autonomous diagnostics of launch-processing systems by these means. Intelligent launch decisions and intelligent weather forecasting are additional applications of AI being considered.

  13. Does positivity operate when the stakes are high? Health status and decision making among older adults.

    PubMed

    English, Tammy; Carstensen, Laura L

    2015-06-01

    Research and theory suggest that emotional goals are increasingly prioritized with age. Related empirical work has shown that, compared with younger adults, older adults attend to and remember positive information more than negative information. This age-related positivity effect has been eliminated in experiments that have explicitly demanded processing of both positive and negative information. In the present study, we explored whether a reduction of the preference for positive information over negative information appears when the material being reviewed holds personal relevance for the individual. Older participants whose health varied from poor to very good reviewed written material prior to making decisions about health related and non-health-related issues. As predicted, older adults in relatively poor health (compared with those in relatively good health) showed less positivity in review of information while making health-related decisions. In contrast, positivity emerged regardless of health status for decisions that were unrelated to health. Across decision contexts, those individuals who focused more on positive information than negative information reported better postdecisional mood and greater decision satisfaction. Results are consistent with the theoretical argument that the age-related positivity effect reflects goal-directed cognitive processing and, furthermore, suggests that personal relevance and contextual factors determine whether positivity emerges. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Does Positivity Operate When the Stakes are High?: Health Status and Decision-Making Among Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    English, Tammy; Carstensen, Laura L.

    2015-01-01

    Research and theory suggest that emotional goals are increasingly prioritized with age. Related empirical work has shown that, compared to younger adults, older adults attend to and remember positive information more than negative information. This age-related positivity effect has been eliminated in experiments that have explicitly demanded processing of both positive and negative information. In the present study, we explored whether a reduction of the preference for positive information over negative information appears when the material being reviewed holds personal relevance for the individual. Older participants whose health varied from poor to very good reviewed written material prior to making decisions about health related and non-health related issues. As predicted, older adults in relatively poor health (compared with those in relatively good health) showed less positivity in review of information while making health-related decisions. In contrast, positivity emerged regardless of health status for decisions that were unrelated to health. Across decision contexts, those individuals who focused more on positive information than negative information reported better post-decisional mood and greater decision satisfaction. Results are consistent with the theoretical argument that the age-related positivity effect reflects goal-directed cognitive processing and, furthermore, suggests that personal relevance and contextual factors determine whether or not positivity emerges. PMID:25894484

  15. Hospital Administration and Nursing Leadership in Disasters: An Exploratory Study Using Concept Mapping.

    PubMed

    Veenema, Tener Goodwin; Deruggiero, Katherine; Losinski, Sarah; Barnett, Daniel

    Strong leadership is critical in disaster situations when "patient surge" challenges a hospital's capacity to respond and normally acceptable patterns of care are disrupted. Activation of the emergency operations plan triggers an incident command system structure for leadership decision making. Yet, implementation of the emergency operations plan and incident command system protocols is ultimately subject to nursing and hospital leadership at the service- and unit level. The results of these service-/unit-based leadership decisions have the potential to directly impact staff and patient safety, quality of care, and ultimately, patient outcomes. Despite the critical nature of these events, nurse leaders and administrators receive little education regarding leadership and decision making during disaster events. The purpose of this study is to identify essential competencies of nursing and hospital administrators' leadership during disaster events. An integrative mixed-methods design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches to data collection and analysis was used. Five focus groups were conducted with nurse leaders and hospital administrators at a large urban hospital in the Northeastern United States in a collaborative group process to generate relevant leadership competencies. Concept Systems Incorporated was used to sort, prioritize, and analyze the data (http://conceptsystemsinc.com/). The results suggest that participants' institutional knowledge (of existing resources, communications, processes) and prior disaster experience increase leadership competence.

  16. Multicriteria optimization approach to design and operation of district heating supply system over its life cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Piotr; Duzinkiewicz, Kazimierz; Grochowski, Michał

    2017-11-01

    District Heating (DH) systems are commonly supplied using local heat sources. Nowadays, modern insulation materials allow for effective and economically viable heat transportation over long distances (over 20 km). In the paper a method for optimized selection of design and operating parameters of long distance Heat Transportation System (HTS) is proposed. The method allows for evaluation of feasibility and effectivity of heat transportation from the considered heat sources. The optimized selection is formulated as multicriteria decision-making problem. The constraints for this problem include a static HTS model, allowing considerations of system life cycle, time variability and spatial topology. Thereby, variation of heat demand and ground temperature within the DH area, insulation and pipe aging and/or terrain elevation profile are taken into account in the decision-making process. The HTS construction costs, pumping power, and heat losses are considered as objective functions. Inner pipe diameter, insulation thickness, temperatures and pumping stations locations are optimized during the decision-making process. Moreover, the variants of pipe-laying e.g. one pipeline with the larger diameter or two with the smaller might be considered during the optimization. The analyzed optimization problem is multicriteria, hybrid and nonlinear. Because of such problem properties, the genetic solver was applied.

  17. Assessment of Operational Barriers and Impediments to Transit Use: Transit Information and Scheduling for Major Activity Centers

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-12-01

    The decision to use public transit as a means of alternative transportation is a somewhat complex process. The potential rider must know that a public transportation system is available, how to contact the public transportation system for information...

  18. 30 CFR 550.272 - If a State objects to the DPP's or DOCD's coastal zone consistency certification, what can I do?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.272...

  19. 30 CFR 550.235 - If a State objects to the EP's coastal zone consistency certification, what can I do?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.235 If a State objects to the...

  20. 30 CFR 550.235 - If a State objects to the EP's coastal zone consistency certification, what can I do?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.235 If a State objects to the...

  1. 30 CFR 550.235 - If a State objects to the EP's coastal zone consistency certification, what can I do?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Ep § 550.235 If a State objects to the...

  2. 30 CFR 550.272 - If a State objects to the DPP's or DOCD's coastal zone consistency certification, what can I do?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.272...

  3. Autobiographical Elaboration Reduces Memory Distortion: Cognitive Operations and the Distinctiveness Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonough, Ian M.; Gallo, David A.

    2008-01-01

    Retrieval monitoring enhances episodic memory accuracy. For instance, false recognition is reduced when participants base their decisions on more distinctive recollections, a retrieval monitoring process called the distinctiveness heuristic. The experiments reported here tested the hypothesis that autobiographical elaboration during study (i.e.,…

  4. Budgeting for Efficiency and Effectiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pereus, Steven C.

    2012-01-01

    For most districts, budgeting has become a cost-cutting exercise designed to close the gap between revenues and expenses. During this process, decision makers inherently assume that existing operations are efficient and effective--an assumption that is rarely validated by facts. Cutting programs and services balances budgets but does not…

  5. Understanding the decision-making process for drivers faced with lane restrictions or closures on Wisconsin highways.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-02-01

    The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) owns and operates a state highway network of 12,000 miles, which carries approximately 80 percent of vehicle miles traveled in the state. Construction, maintenance, weather and other events often le...

  6. A View from Albemarle

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holt, Thaddeus

    1977-01-01

    This paper was originally delivered in July of 1975, within a few weeks of the Supreme Court's decision in the case of "Albemarle Paper Company v. Moody". Its intent is to shed light on the interrelationship between the practice of industrial psychology and the judicial process in operation. (Editor/RK)

  7. Stimulus and response conflict processing during perceptual decision making.

    PubMed

    Wendelken, Carter; Ditterich, Jochen; Bunge, Silvia A; Carter, Cameron S

    2009-12-01

    Encoding and dealing with conflicting information is essential for successful decision making in a complex environment. In the present fMRI study, stimulus conflict and response conflict are contrasted in the context of a perceptual decision-making dot-motion discrimination task. Stimulus conflict was manipulated by varying dot-motion coherence along task-relevant and task-irrelevant dimensions. Response conflict was manipulated by varying whether or not competing stimulus dimensions provided evidence for the same or different responses. The right inferior frontal gyrus was involved specifically in the resolution of stimulus conflict, whereas the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex was shown to be sensitive to response conflict. Additionally, two regions that have been linked to perceptual decision making with dot-motion stimuli in monkey physiology studies were differentially engaged by stimulus conflict and response conflict. The middle temporal area, previously linked to processing of motion, was strongly affected by the presence of stimulus conflict. On the other hand, the superior parietal lobe, previously associated with accumulation of evidence for a response, was affected by the presence of response conflict. These results shed light on the neural mechanisms that support decision making in the presence of conflict, a cognitive operation fundamental to both basic survival and high-level cognition.

  8. Characteristics of community health organizations and decision-makers considering the adoption of motivational interviewing.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jessica Roberts; Dusablon, Tracy; Williams, Weston O; Blais, Marissa Puckett; Hennessy, Kevin D

    2014-07-01

    Research related to the adoption of comparative effectiveness research (CER) in mental health practice is limited. This study explores the factors that influence decisions to adopt motivational interviewing (MI)-an evidence-based practice (EBP) grounded in CER-among decision-makers (n = 311) in community health organizations (n = 92). Descriptive analyses focus on organization and decision-maker characteristics and processes that may influence the decision to adopt an EBP, including demographics, structure and operations, readiness, attitudes, barriers, and facilitators. Within-group agreement is examined to determine the degree to which participants within each organization gave similar responses. Results show characteristics differed according to type of organization (community health versus community behavioral health) and position (directors versus staff). Within-group agreement was also influenced by position. These findings indicate different strategies may be needed to best disseminate CER to the two groups.

  9. A Cross-Layer User Centric Vertical Handover Decision Approach Based on MIH Local Triggers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehan, Maaz; Yousaf, Muhammad; Qayyum, Amir; Malik, Shahzad

    Vertical handover decision algorithm that is based on user preferences and coupled with Media Independent Handover (MIH) local triggers have not been explored much in the literature. We have developed a comprehensive cross-layer solution, called Vertical Handover Decision (VHOD) approach, which consists of three parts viz. mechanism for collecting and storing user preferences, Vertical Handover Decision (VHOD) algorithm and the MIH Function (MIHF). MIHF triggers the VHOD algorithm which operates on user preferences to issue handover commands to mobility management protocol. VHOD algorithm is an MIH User and therefore needs to subscribe events and configure thresholds for receiving triggers from MIHF. In this regard, we have performed experiments in WLAN to suggest thresholds for Link Going Down trigger. We have also critically evaluated the handover decision process, proposed Just-in-time interface activation technique, compared our proposed approach with prominent user centric approaches and analyzed our approach from different aspects.

  10. Measuring Command Post Operations in a Decisive Action Training Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-05-01

    Research Report 2001 Measuring Command Post Operations in a Decisive Action Training Environment Michelle N...September 2014 - September 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Measuring Command Post Operations in a Decisive Action Training Environment 5a...Readiness Training Center Warrior Leadership Council, we explored whether a guide on Command Post (CP) Operations could improve performance during

  11. Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

    PubMed

    Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

    2012-01-01

    In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

  12. Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Hong; Wang, Shaobu; Fan, Rui

    This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it hasmore » been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.« less

  13. Higher-level fusion for military operations based on abductive inference: proof of principle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pantaleev, Aleksandar V.; Josephson, John

    2006-04-01

    The ability of contemporary military commanders to estimate and understand complicated situations already suffers from information overload, and the situation can only grow worse. We describe a prototype application that uses abductive inferencing to fuse information from multiple sensors to evaluate the evidence for higher-level hypotheses that are close to the levels of abstraction needed for decision making (approximately JDL levels 2 and 3). Abductive inference (abduction, inference to the best explanation) is a pattern of reasoning that occurs naturally in diverse settings such as medical diagnosis, criminal investigations, scientific theory formation, and military intelligence analysis. Because abduction is part of common-sense reasoning, implementations of it can produce reasoning traces that are very human understandable. Automated abductive inferencing can be deployed to augment human reasoning, taking advantage of computation to process large amounts of information, and to bypass limits to human attention and short-term memory. We illustrate the workings of the prototype system by describing an example of its use for small-unit military operations in an urban setting. Knowledge was encoded as it might be captured prior to engagement from a standard military decision making process (MDMP) and analysis of commander's priority intelligence requirements (PIR). The system is able to reasonably estimate the evidence for higher-level hypotheses based on information from multiple sensors. Its inference processes can be examined closely to verify correctness. Decision makers can override conclusions at any level and changes will propagate appropriately.

  14. Integrated continuous bioprocessing: Economic, operational, and environmental feasibility for clinical and commercial antibody manufacture.

    PubMed

    Pollock, James; Coffman, Jon; Ho, Sa V; Farid, Suzanne S

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a systems approach to evaluating the potential of integrated continuous bioprocessing for monoclonal antibody (mAb) manufacture across a product's lifecycle from preclinical to commercial manufacture. The economic, operational, and environmental feasibility of alternative continuous manufacturing strategies were evaluated holistically using a prototype UCL decisional tool that integrated process economics, discrete-event simulation, environmental impact analysis, operational risk analysis, and multiattribute decision-making. The case study focused on comparing whole bioprocesses that used either batch, continuous or a hybrid combination of batch and continuous technologies for cell culture, capture chromatography, and polishing chromatography steps. The cost of goods per gram (COG/g), E-factor, and operational risk scores of each strategy were established across a matrix of scenarios with differing combinations of clinical development phase and company portfolio size. The tool outputs predict that the optimal strategy for early phase production and small/medium-sized companies is the integrated continuous strategy (alternating tangential flow filtration (ATF) perfusion, continuous capture, continuous polishing). However, the top ranking strategy changes for commercial production and companies with large portfolios to the hybrid strategy with fed-batch culture, continuous capture and batch polishing from a COG/g perspective. The multiattribute decision-making analysis highlighted that if the operational feasibility was considered more important than the economic benefits, the hybrid strategy would be preferred for all company scales. Further considerations outside the scope of this work include the process development costs required to adopt continuous processing. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:854-866, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  15. Nonlinear BCJR equalizer for suppression of intrachannel nonlinearities in 40 Gb/s optical communications systems.

    PubMed

    Djordjevic, Ivan B; Vasic, Bane

    2006-05-29

    A maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) symbol decoding supplemented with iterative decoding is proposed as an effective mean for suppression of intrachannel nonlinearities. The MAP detector, based on Bahl-Cocke-Jelinek-Raviv algorithm, operates on the channel trellis, a dynamical model of intersymbol interference, and provides soft-decision outputs processed further in an iterative decoder. A dramatic performance improvement is demonstrated. The main reason is that the conventional maximum-likelihood sequence detector based on Viterbi algorithm provides hard-decision outputs only, hence preventing the soft iterative decoding. The proposed scheme operates very well in the presence of strong intrachannel intersymbol interference, when other advanced forward error correction schemes fail, and it is also suitable for 40 Gb/s upgrade over existing 10 Gb/s infrastructure.

  16. Development of an integrated spacecraft Guidance, Navigation, & Control subsystem for automated proximity operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte, Peter Z.; Spencer, David A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the development and validation process of a highly automated Guidance, Navigation, & Control subsystem for a small satellite on-orbit inspection application, enabling proximity operations without human-in-the-loop interaction. The paper focuses on the integration and testing of Guidance, Navigation, & Control software and the development of decision logic to address the question of how such a system can be effectively implemented for full automation. This process is unique because a multitude of operational scenarios must be considered and a set of complex interactions between subsystem algorithms must be defined to achieve the automation goal. The Prox-1 mission is currently under development within the Space Systems Design Laboratory at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The mission involves the characterization of new small satellite component technologies, deployment of the LightSail 3U CubeSat, entering into a trailing orbit relative to LightSail using ground-in-the-loop commands, and demonstration of automated proximity operations through formation flight and natural motion circumnavigation maneuvers. Operations such as these may be utilized for many scenarios including on-orbit inspection, refueling, repair, construction, reconnaissance, docking, and debris mitigation activities. Prox-1 uses onboard sensors and imaging instruments to perform Guidance, Navigation, & Control operations during on-orbit inspection of LightSail. Navigation filters perform relative orbit determination based on images of the target spacecraft, and guidance algorithms conduct automated maneuver planning. A slew and tracking controller sends attitude actuation commands to a set of control moment gyroscopes, and other controllers manage desaturation, detumble, thruster firing, and target acquisition/recovery. All Guidance, Navigation, & Control algorithms are developed in a MATLAB/Simulink six degree-of-freedom simulation environment and are integrated using decision logic to autonomously determine when actions should be performed. The complexity of this decision logic is the primary challenge of the automated process, and the Stateflow tool in Simulink is used to establish logical relationships and manage data flow between each of the individual hardware and software components. Once the integrated simulation is fully developed in MATLAB/Simulink, the algorithms are autocoded to C/C++ and integrated into flight software. Hardware-in-the-loop testing provides validation of the Guidance, Navigation, & Control subsystem performance.

  17. Trait urgency and gambling problems in young people by age: the mediating role of decision-making processes.

    PubMed

    Canale, Natale; Vieno, Alessio; Griffiths, Mark D; Rubaltelli, Enrico; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-07-01

    Although the personality trait of urgency has been linked to problem gambling, less is known about psychological mechanisms that mediate the relationship between urgency and problem gambling. One individual variable of potential relevance to impulsivity and addictive disorders is age. The aims of this study were to examine: (i) a theoretical model associating urgency and gambling problems, (ii) the mediating effects of decision-making processes (operationalized as preference for small/immediate rewards and lower levels of deliberative decision-making); and (iii) age differences in these relationships. Participants comprised 986 students (64% male; mean age=19.51 years; SD=2.30) divided into three groups: 16-17 years, 18-21 years, and 22-25 years. All participants completed measures of urgency, problem gambling, and a delay-discounting questionnaire involving choices between a smaller amount of money received immediately and a larger amount of money received later. Participants were also asked to reflect on their decision-making process. Compared to those aged 16-17 years and 22-25 years, participants aged 18-21 years had a higher level of gambling problems and decreased scores on lower levels of deliberative decision-making. Higher levels of urgency were associated with higher levels of gambling problems. The association was mediated by a lower level of deliberative decision-making and preference for an immediate/small reward. A distinct pathway was observed for lower levels of deliberative decision-making. Young people who tend to act rashly in response to extreme moods, had lower levels of deliberative decision-making, that in turn were positively related to gambling problems. This study highlights unique decision-making pathways through which urgency trait may operate, suggesting that those developing prevention and/or treatment strategies may want to consider the model's variables, including urgency, delay discounting, and deliberative decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M.; Feigh, Karen M.

    2016-01-01

    The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity. The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design. PMID:28491008

  19. Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

    PubMed

    Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

    2017-06-01

    The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

  20. 78 FR 50050 - Record of Decision for the Construction and Operation of an Infantry Platoon Battle Course at...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-16

    ... Garrison, Hawai`i, (USAG-HI) announce the decision to construct and operate a new Infantry Platoon Battle... decision allows the Army to construct and operate an IPBC that will meet Army training requirements and... with alternatives to construct and operate the IPBC. In the Final EIS published in the Federal Register...

  1. Increasing the scale and adoption of population health interventions: experiences and perspectives of policy makers, practitioners, and researchers

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Decisions to scale up population health interventions from small projects to wider state or national implementation is fundamental to maximising population-wide health improvements. The objectives of this study were to examine: i) how decisions to scale up interventions are currently made in practice; ii) the role that evidence plays in informing decisions to scale up interventions; and iii) the role policy makers, practitioners, and researchers play in this process. Methods Interviews with an expert panel of senior Australian and international public health policy-makers (n = 7), practitioners (n = 7), and researchers (n = 7) were conducted in May 2013 with a participation rate of 84%. Results Scaling up decisions were generally made through iterative processes and led by policy makers and/or practitioners, but ultimately approved by political leaders and/or senior executives of funding agencies. Research evidence formed a component of the overall set of information used in decision-making, but its contribution was limited by the paucity of relevant intervention effectiveness research, and data on costs and cost effectiveness. Policy makers, practitioners/service managers, and researchers had different, but complementary roles to play in the process of scaling up interventions. Conclusions This analysis articulates the processes of how decisions to scale up interventions are made, the roles of evidence, and contribution of different professional groups. More intervention research that includes data on the effectiveness, reach, and costs of operating at scale and key service delivery issues (including acceptability and fit of interventions and delivery models) should be sought as this has the potential to substantially advance the relevance and ultimately usability of research evidence for scaling up population health action. PMID:24735455

  2. Prefrontal Contribution to Decision-Making under Free-Choice Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Funahashi, Shintaro

    2017-01-01

    Executive function is thought to be the coordinated operation of multiple neural processes and allows to accomplish a current goal flexibly. The most important function of the prefrontal cortex is the executive function. Among a variety of executive functions in which the prefrontal cortex participates, decision-making is one of the most important. Although the prefrontal contribution to decision-making has been examined using a variety of behavioral tasks, recent studies using fMRI have shown that the prefrontal cortex participates in decision-making under free-choice conditions. Since decision-making under free-choice conditions represents the very first stage for any kind of decision-making process, it is important that we understand its neural mechanism. Although few studies have examined this issue while a monkey performed a free-choice task, those studies showed that, when the monkey made a decision to subsequently choose one particular option, prefrontal neurons showing selectivity to that option exhibited transient activation just before presentation of the imperative cue. Further studies have suggested that this transient increase is caused by the irregular fluctuation of spontaneous firing just before cue presentation, which enhances the response to the cue and biases the strength of the neuron's selectivity to the option. In addition, this biasing effect was observed only in neurons that exhibited sustained delay-period activity, indicating that this biasing effect not only influences the animal's decision for an upcoming choice, but also is linked to working memory mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex. PMID:28798662

  3. Inconclusive quantum measurements and decisions under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yukalov, Vyacheslav; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements. In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy with the theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond, in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluation of the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational, subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example, we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

  4. Logical-rule models of classification response times: a synthesis of mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches.

    PubMed

    Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R; Nosofsky, Robert M

    2010-04-01

    We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli along a set of component dimensions. Those independent decisions are then combined via logical rules to determine the overall categorization response. The time course of the independent decisions is modeled via random-walk processes operating along individual dimensions. Alternative mental architectures are used as mechanisms for combining the independent decisions to implement the logical rules. We derive fundamental qualitative contrasts for distinguishing among the predictions of the rule models and major alternative models of classification RT. We also use the models to predict detailed RT-distribution data associated with individual stimuli in tasks of speeded perceptual classification. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Incorporation of National Universities in Japan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oba, Jun

    2007-01-01

    In April 2004, Japanese national universities were incorporated and became much more autonomous from the government in their operations. Their managerial structure was realigned--placing the president at the centre of the decision-making process, and with the participation of external persons--to be more responsive to the changing needs of…

  6. The Economics of Structured Continuing Education in Selected Professional Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sasmor, James C.

    A study determined what business administration considerations were elements in the managerial decision making process to include structured continuing education in a professional journal and what the positive or negative results have been in terms of operating benefits and profits. An initial literature review showed the need for exploratory…

  7. Automation--planning to implementation; the problems en route.

    PubMed Central

    Pizer, I H

    1976-01-01

    Once the major decision to automate library processes is made, there are a variety of problems which may be encountered before the planned system becomes operational. These include problems of personnel, budget, procurement of adjunct services, institutional priorities, and manufacturing uncertainties. Actual and potential difficulties are discussed. PMID:1247703

  8. Here's Another Nice Mess: Using Video in Reflective Dialogue Research Method

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hepplewhite, K.

    2014-01-01

    This account discusses "reflective dialogues", a process utilising video to re-examine in-action decision-making with theatre practitioners who operate in community contexts. The reflexive discussions combine with observation, text and digital documentation to offer a sometimes "messy" (from Schön 1987) dynamic to the research…

  9. Observations on Leadership, Problem Solving, and Preferred Futures of Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puncochar, Judith

    2013-01-01

    A focus on enrollments, rankings, uncertain budgets, and branding efforts to operate universities could have serious implications for discussions of sustainable solutions to complex problems and the decision-making processes of leaders. The Authentic Leadership Model for framing ill-defined problems in higher education is posited to improve the…

  10. State vs. Local Control: Reality or Myth over Concern for Local Autonomy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mundt, John C.

    1978-01-01

    As examples of the trend towards decision-making processes resting on the interaction of various legitimate public sector interests, the author considers outside forces producing operational strictures within the system, including executive orders, lapsing and allotment procedures, accounting requirements, information demands, legal opinions,…

  11. 33 CFR 157.415 - Bridge resource management policy and procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... navigational watch are not impaired by fatigue. (3) The need to take into account any known limitation in qualifications or fitness of individuals when making navigational and operational decisions. (4) The need to be..., processing, and interpreting all essential information and making it conveniently available to other members...

  12. 30 CFR 550.273 - How do I submit a modified DPP or DOCD or resubmit a disapproved DPP or DOCD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.273 How do I submit a...

  13. 30 CFR 550.273 - How do I submit a modified DPP or DOCD or resubmit a disapproved DPP or DOCD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Review and Decision Process for the Dpp Or Docd § 550.273 How do I submit a...

  14. Drivers Impacting the Adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Management Practices and Production Systems of the Northeast and Southeast U.S

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Agricultural production responds to economic, social, environmental, and technological drivers operating both internal and external to the production system. These drivers influence producers’ decision making processes, and act to shape the individual production systems through modification of produ...

  15. 21 CFR 111.123 - What quality control operations are required for the master manufacturing record, the batch...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... monitoring required under subpart E; (4) Conducting any required material review and making any required disposition decision; (5) Approving or rejecting any reprocessing; (6) Determining whether all in-process... and to determine that the product is consistent with your purchase order. ...

  16. Requirements analysis report for transport estimation, preconstruction, construction, decision support and electronic bidding systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-01-01

    Info Tech conducted an on-site visit at the Connecticut Department of Transportation in Newington : from October 27-31, 2008. The purpose of the visit was to conduct an analysis of ConnDOTs : processes and to review the operations and business sys...

  17. Strategic Capacity and Organisational Capabilities: A Challenge for Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thoenig, Jean-Claude; Paradeise, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Are universities able to operate as strategic actors? An organisational sociology based approach supported by a comparative field research project identifies three types of social, cultural and cognitive processes that play a decisive role in building and implementing local capabilities required to mobilise a strategic capacity. The paper…

  18. Command and Control of Joint Air Operations through Mission Command

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-01

    and outlines the C2 architecture systems, processes, and philosophy of com- mand required to enable mission command effectively. Mission Command...General Dempsey highlights the fact that “trust is the moral sinew that binds the distributed Joint Force 2020 together” and observes that “unless...con- fident about how their subordinates will make decisions and adapt to the dynamic battlespace environment. Processes, Systems, and Philosophy of

  19. Innovative assistive technology in Finnish public elderly-care services: a focus on productivity.

    PubMed

    Melkas, Helinä

    2013-01-01

    The study investigates ways in which technology use may help municipalities improve productivity in elderly-care services. A case study of Finnish elderly-care services provides responses concerning impacts, decisions and options in technology use. The research data were collected during a 'smart home pilot' implemented in four housing service units. Over 60 assistive devices were introduced in the smart homes used during short-term housing periods. Both customers and care staff's experiences as well as processes related to the use of assistive devices were investigated on the basis of survey questionnaires, interviews and feedback. Assistive device-related operational processes were investigated with the help of concepts of 'resource focus', 'lost motion' and 'intermediate storage'. Four central operational processes were identified. Design and desirability as well as costs, such as opportunity costs of assistive devices were also a focus. Significant factors related to productivity were disclosed in this way. Technology use versus productivity needs to be 'circled' from the points of view of individual users, workplaces, service processes, and larger technology options. There must be long-term patience to introduce technology properly into use to produce positive impacts on productivity. Customers and care staff have an interlinked, vital role to play as decision-makers' informants.

  20. The Human-Electronic Crew: Is the Team Maturing? Joint GAF/RAF/USAF workshop on Human-Electronic Crew Teamwork (2nd) Held in Ingolstadt, Germany on September 25-28, 1990

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-07-10

    a way ahead for future work to explore the cognitive nature of the whole command and control task and a decision support environment . Introduction...existing inferior approach. Second, the nature of how tasks are performed changes in a dynamic environment . For example, the decision-making process...the system must be designed to perform in its expected operational environment . It includes tasks performed by the aircraft, its systems, and each of

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