New estimation architecture for multisensor data fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covino, Joseph M.; Griffiths, Barry E.

1991-07-01

This paper describes a novel method of hierarchical asynchronous distributed filtering called the Net Information Approach (NIA). The NIA is a Kalman-filter-based estimation scheme for spatially distributed sensors which must retain their local optimality yet require a nearly optimal global estimate. The key idea of the NIA is that each local sensor-dedicated filter tells the global filter 'what I've learned since the last local-to-global transmission,' whereas in other estimation architectures the local-to-global transmission consists of 'what I think now.' An algorithm based on this idea has been demonstrated on a small-scale target-tracking problem with many encouraging results. Feasibility of this approach was demonstrated by comparing NIA performance to an optimal centralized Kalman filter (lower bound) via Monte Carlo simulations.

Analysis of the optimal laminated target made up of discrete set of materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aptukov, Valery N.; Belousov, Valentin L.

1991-01-01

A new class of problems was analyzed to estimate an optimal structure of laminated targets fabricated from the specified set of homogeneous materials. An approximate description of the perforation process is based on the model of radial hole extension. The problem is solved by using the needle-type variation technique. The desired optimization conditions and quantitative/qualitative estimations of optimal targets were obtained and are discussed using specific examples.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-01-01

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Surrogate Based Uni/Multi-Objective Optimization and Distribution Estimation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, W.; Duan, Q.; Huo, X.

2017-12-01

Parameter calibration has been demonstrated as an effective way to improve the performance of dynamic models, such as hydrological models, land surface models, weather and climate models etc. Traditional optimization algorithms usually cost a huge number of model evaluations, making dynamic model calibration very difficult, or even computationally prohibitive. With the help of a serious of recently developed adaptive surrogate-modelling based optimization methods: uni-objective optimization method ASMO, multi-objective optimization method MO-ASMO, and probability distribution estimation method ASMO-PODE, the number of model evaluations can be significantly reduced to several hundreds, making it possible to calibrate very expensive dynamic models, such as regional high resolution land surface models, weather forecast models such as WRF, and intermediate complexity earth system models such as LOVECLIM. This presentation provides a brief introduction to the common framework of adaptive surrogate-based optimization algorithms of ASMO, MO-ASMO and ASMO-PODE, a case study of Common Land Model (CoLM) calibration in Heihe river basin in Northwest China, and an outlook of the potential applications of the surrogate-based optimization methods.

A Simulation of Readiness-Based Sparing Policies

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the...available in the optimization tools. 14. SUBJECT TERMS readiness-based sparing, discrete event simulation, optimization, multi-indenture...variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the

Optimal estimation of diffusion coefficients from single-particle trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vestergaard, Christian L.; Blainey, Paul C.; Flyvbjerg, Henrik

2014-02-01

How does one optimally determine the diffusion coefficient of a diffusing particle from a single-time-lapse recorded trajectory of the particle? We answer this question with an explicit, unbiased, and practically optimal covariance-based estimator (CVE). This estimator is regression-free and is far superior to commonly used methods based on measured mean squared displacements. In experimentally relevant parameter ranges, it also outperforms the analytically intractable and computationally more demanding maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). For the case of diffusion on a flexible and fluctuating substrate, the CVE is biased by substrate motion. However, given some long time series and a substrate under some tension, an extended MLE can separate particle diffusion on the substrate from substrate motion in the laboratory frame. This provides benchmarks that allow removal of bias caused by substrate fluctuations in CVE. The resulting unbiased CVE is optimal also for short time series on a fluctuating substrate. We have applied our estimators to human 8-oxoguanine DNA glycolase proteins diffusing on flow-stretched DNA, a fluctuating substrate, and found that diffusion coefficients are severely overestimated if substrate fluctuations are not accounted for.

C-learning: A new classification framework to estimate optimal dynamic treatment regimes.

PubMed

Zhang, Baqun; Zhang, Min

2017-12-11

A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, each corresponding to a decision point, that determine that next treatment based on each individual's own available characteristics and treatment history up to that point. We show that identifying the optimal dynamic treatment regime can be recast as a sequential optimization problem and propose a direct sequential optimization method to estimate the optimal treatment regimes. In particular, at each decision point, the optimization is equivalent to sequentially minimizing a weighted expected misclassification error. Based on this classification perspective, we propose a powerful and flexible C-learning algorithm to learn the optimal dynamic treatment regimes backward sequentially from the last stage until the first stage. C-learning is a direct optimization method that directly targets optimizing decision rules by exploiting powerful optimization/classification techniques and it allows incorporation of patient's characteristics and treatment history to improve performance, hence enjoying advantages of both the traditional outcome regression-based methods (Q- and A-learning) and the more recent direct optimization methods. The superior performance and flexibility of the proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulation studies. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Study on UKF based federal integrated navigation for high dynamic aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Gang; Shao, Wei; Chen, Kai; Yan, Jie

2011-08-01

High dynamic aircraft is a very attractive new generation vehicles, in which provides near space aviation with large flight envelope both speed and altitude, for example the hypersonic vehicles. The complex flight environments for high dynamic vehicles require high accuracy and stability navigation scheme. Since the conventional Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS) and Global Position System (GPS) federal integrated scheme based on EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) is invalidation in GPS single blackout situation because of high speed flight, a new high precision and stability integrated navigation approach is presented in this paper, in which the SINS, GPS and Celestial Navigation System (CNS) is combined as a federal information fusion configuration based on nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithm. Firstly, the new integrated system state error is modeled. According to this error model, the SINS system is used as the navigation solution mathematic platform. The SINS combine with GPS constitute one error estimation filter subsystem based on UKF to obtain local optimal estimation, and the SINS combine with CNS constitute another error estimation subsystem. A non-reset federated configuration filter based on partial information is proposed to fuse two local optimal estimations to get global optimal error estimation, and the global optimal estimation is used to correct the SINS navigation solution. The χ 2 fault detection method is used to detect the subsystem fault, and the fault subsystem is isolation through fault interval to protect system away from the divergence. The integrated system takes advantages of SINS, GPS and CNS to an immense improvement for high accuracy and reliably high dynamic navigation application. Simulation result shows that federated fusion of using GPS and CNS to revise SINS solution is reasonable and availably with good estimation performance, which are satisfied with the demands of high dynamic flight navigation. The UKF is superior than EKF based integrated scheme, in which has smaller estimation error and quickly convergence rate.

Optimization and experimental validation of a thermal cycle that maximizes entropy coefficient fisher identifiability for lithium iron phosphate cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Sergio; Rothenberger, Michael; Hake, Alison; Fathy, Hosam

2016-03-01

This article presents a framework for optimizing the thermal cycle to estimate a battery cell's entropy coefficient at 20% state of charge (SOC). Our goal is to maximize Fisher identifiability: a measure of the accuracy with which a parameter can be estimated. Existing protocols in the literature for estimating entropy coefficients demand excessive laboratory time. Identifiability optimization makes it possible to achieve comparable accuracy levels in a fraction of the time. This article demonstrates this result for a set of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells. We conduct a 24-h experiment to obtain benchmark measurements of their entropy coefficients. We optimize a thermal cycle to maximize parameter identifiability for these cells. This optimization proceeds with respect to the coefficients of a Fourier discretization of this thermal cycle. Finally, we compare the estimated parameters using (i) the benchmark test, (ii) the optimized protocol, and (iii) a 15-h test from the literature (by Forgez et al.). The results are encouraging for two reasons. First, they confirm the simulation-based prediction that the optimized experiment can produce accurate parameter estimates in 2 h, compared to 15-24. Second, the optimized experiment also estimates a thermal time constant representing the effects of thermal capacitance and convection heat transfer.

Optimal combining of ground-based sensors for the purpose of validating satellite-based rainfall estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krajewski, Witold F.; Rexroth, David T.; Kiriaki, Kiriakie

1991-01-01

Two problems related to radar rainfall estimation are described. The first part is a description of a preliminary data analysis for the purpose of statistical estimation of rainfall from multiple (radar and raingage) sensors. Raingage, radar, and joint radar-raingage estimation is described, and some results are given. Statistical parameters of rainfall spatial dependence are calculated and discussed in the context of optimal estimation. Quality control of radar data is also described. The second part describes radar scattering by ellipsoidal raindrops. An analytical solution is derived for the Rayleigh scattering regime. Single and volume scattering are presented. Comparison calculations with the known results for spheres and oblate spheroids are shown.

Fast Quaternion Attitude Estimation from Two Vector Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Bauer, Frank H. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Many spacecraft attitude determination methods use exactly two vector measurements. The two vectors are typically the unit vector to the Sun and the Earth's magnetic field vector for coarse "sun-mag" attitude determination or unit vectors to two stars tracked by two star trackers for fine attitude determination. Existing closed-form attitude estimates based on Wahba's optimality criterion for two arbitrarily weighted observations are somewhat slow to evaluate. This paper presents two new fast quaternion attitude estimation algorithms using two vector observations, one optimal and one suboptimal. The suboptimal method gives the same estimate as the TRIAD algorithm, at reduced computational cost. Simulations show that the TRIAD estimate is almost as accurate as the optimal estimate in representative test scenarios.

Optimal Estimation of Clock Values and Trends from Finite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhall, Charles

2005-01-01

We show how to solve two problems of optimal linear estimation from a finite set of phase data. Clock noise is modeled as a stochastic process with stationary dth increments. The covariance properties of such a process are contained in the generalized autocovariance function (GACV). We set up two principles for optimal estimation: with the help of the GACV, these principles lead to a set of linear equations for the regression coefficients and some auxiliary parameters. The mean square errors of the estimators are easily calculated. The method can be used to check the results of other methods and to find good suboptimal estimators based on a small subset of the available data.

Robust Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on Reachability Analysis in an Optimal Control Formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John

2013-01-01

This paper discusses an algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. Starting with an optimal control formulation, the optimization problem can be rewritten as a Hamilton- Jacobi-Bellman equation. This equation can be solved by level set methods. This approach has been applied on an aircraft example involving structural airframe damage. Monte Carlo validation tests have confirmed that this approach is successful in estimating the safe maneuvering envelope for damaged aircraft.

Centroid estimation for a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor based on stream processing.

PubMed

Kong, Fanpeng; Polo, Manuel Cegarra; Lambert, Andrew

2017-08-10

Using center of gravity to estimate the centroid of the spot in a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor, the measurement corrupts with photon and detector noise. Parameters, like window size, often require careful optimization to balance the noise error, dynamic range, and linearity of the response coefficient under different photon flux. It also needs to be substituted by the correlation method for extended sources. We propose a centroid estimator based on stream processing, where the center of gravity calculation window floats with the incoming pixel from the detector. In comparison with conventional methods, we show that the proposed estimator simplifies the choice of optimized parameters, provides a unit linear coefficient response, and reduces the influence of background and noise. It is shown that the stream-based centroid estimator also works well for limited size extended sources. A hardware implementation of the proposed estimator is discussed.

Evidence-based optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for cancer: A useful tool to estimate radiotherapy demand.

PubMed

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2016-04-01

The recently updated optimal radiotherapy utilisation model estimated that 48.3% of all cancer patients should receive external beam radiotherapy at least once during their disease course. Adapting this model, we constructed an evidence-based model to estimate the optimal number of fractions for notifiable cancers in Australia to determine equipment and workload implications. The optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the evidence-based recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variables on the model. Of the 27 cancer sites, the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy ranged from 0 to 23.3 per cancer patient, and 1.5 to 29.1 per treatment course. Brain, prostate and head and neck cancers had the highest average number of fractions per course. Overall, the optimal number of fractions was 9.4 per cancer patient (range 8.7-10.0) and 19.4 per course (range 18.0-20.7). These results provide valuable data for radiotherapy services planning and comparison with actual practice. The model can be easily adapted by inserting population-specific epidemiological data thus making it applicable to other jurisdictions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal experimental designs for the estimation of thermal properties of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Elaine P.; Moncman, Deborah A.

1994-01-01

Reliable estimation of thermal properties is extremely important in the utilization of new advanced materials, such as composite materials. The accuracy of these estimates can be increased if the experiments are designed carefully. The objectives of this study are to design optimal experiments to be used in the prediction of these thermal properties and to then utilize these designs in the development of an estimation procedure to determine the effective thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity). The experiments were optimized by choosing experimental parameters that maximize the temperature derivatives with respect to all of the unknown thermal properties. This procedure has the effect of minimizing the confidence intervals of the resulting thermal property estimates. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional experimental designs were optimized. A heat flux boundary condition is required in both analyses for the simultaneous estimation of the thermal properties. For the one-dimensional experiment, the parameters optimized were the heating time of the applied heat flux, the temperature sensor location, and the experimental time. In addition to these parameters, the optimal location of the heat flux was also determined for the two-dimensional experiments. Utilizing the optimal one-dimensional experiment, the effective thermal conductivity perpendicular to the fibers and the effective volumetric heat capacity were then estimated for an IM7-Bismaleimide composite material. The estimation procedure used is based on the minimization of a least squares function which incorporates both calculated and measured temperatures and allows for the parameters to be estimated simultaneously.

Optimal time points sampling in pathway modelling.

PubMed

Hu, Shiyan

2004-01-01

Modelling cellular dynamics based on experimental data is at the heart of system biology. Considerable progress has been made to dynamic pathway modelling as well as the related parameter estimation. However, few of them gives consideration for the issue of optimal sampling time selection for parameter estimation. Time course experiments in molecular biology rarely produce large and accurate data sets and the experiments involved are usually time consuming and expensive. Therefore, to approximate parameters for models with only few available sampling data is of significant practical value. For signal transduction, the sampling intervals are usually not evenly distributed and are based on heuristics. In the paper, we investigate an approach to guide the process of selecting time points in an optimal way to minimize the variance of parameter estimates. In the method, we first formulate the problem to a nonlinear constrained optimization problem by maximum likelihood estimation. We then modify and apply a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, which combines the advantages of both quantum computing and evolutionary computing, to solve the optimization problem. The new algorithm does not suffer from the morass of selecting good initial values and being stuck into local optimum as usually accompanied with the conventional numerical optimization techniques. The simulation results indicate the soundness of the new method.

A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liusha; Couillet, Romain; McKay, Matthew R.

2015-12-01

We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of available market returns is often of similar order to the number of assets, so that the sample covariance matrix performs poorly as a covariance estimator. Additionally, financial market data often contain outliers which, if not correctly handled, may further corrupt the covariance estimation. We address these shortcomings by studying the performance of a hybrid covariance matrix estimator based on Tyler's robust M-estimator and on Ledoit-Wolf's shrinkage estimator while assuming samples with heavy-tailed distribution. Employing recent results from random matrix theory, we develop a consistent estimator of (a scaled version of) the realized portfolio risk, which is minimized by optimizing online the shrinkage intensity. Our portfolio optimization method is shown via simulations to outperform existing methods both for synthetic and real market data.

New Multi-objective Uncertainty-based Algorithm for Water Resource Models' Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshavarz, Kasra; Alizadeh, Hossein

2017-04-01

Water resource models are powerful tools to support water management decision making process and are developed to deal with a broad range of issues including land use and climate change impacts analysis, water allocation, systems design and operation, waste load control and allocation, etc. These models are divided into two categories of simulation and optimization models whose calibration has been addressed in the literature where great relevant efforts in recent decades have led to two main categories of auto-calibration methods of uncertainty-based algorithms such as GLUE, MCMC and PEST and optimization-based algorithms including single-objective optimization such as SCE-UA and multi-objective optimization such as MOCOM-UA and MOSCEM-UA. Although algorithms which benefit from capabilities of both types, such as SUFI-2, were rather developed, this paper proposes a new auto-calibration algorithm which is capable of both finding optimal parameters values regarding multiple objectives like optimization-based algorithms and providing interval estimations of parameters like uncertainty-based algorithms. The algorithm is actually developed to improve quality of SUFI-2 results. Based on a single-objective, e.g. NSE and RMSE, SUFI-2 proposes a routine to find the best point and interval estimation of parameters and corresponding prediction intervals (95 PPU) of time series of interest. To assess the goodness of calibration, final results are presented using two uncertainty measures of p-factor quantifying percentage of observations covered by 95PPU and r-factor quantifying degree of uncertainty, and the analyst has to select the point and interval estimation of parameters which are actually non-dominated regarding both of the uncertainty measures. Based on the described properties of SUFI-2, two important questions are raised, answering of which are our research motivation: Given that in SUFI-2, final selection is based on the two measures or objectives and on the other hand, knowing that there is no multi-objective optimization mechanism in SUFI-2, are the final estimations Pareto-optimal? Can systematic methods be applied to select the final estimations? Dealing with these questions, a new auto-calibration algorithm was proposed where the uncertainty measures were considered as two objectives to find non-dominated interval estimations of parameters by means of coupling Monte Carlo simulation and Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization. Both the proposed algorithm and SUFI-2 were applied to calibrate parameters of water resources planning model of Helleh river basin, Iran. The model is a comprehensive water quantity-quality model developed in the previous researches using WEAP software in order to analyze the impacts of different water resources management strategies including dam construction, increasing cultivation area, utilization of more efficient irrigation technologies, changing crop pattern, etc. Comparing the Pareto frontier resulted from the proposed auto-calibration algorithm with SUFI-2 results, it was revealed that the new algorithm leads to a better and also continuous Pareto frontier, even though it is more computationally expensive. Finally, Nash and Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining methods were used to choose compromised interval estimation regarding Pareto frontier.

Estimation of the optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for breast cancer: A review of the evidence.

PubMed

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2015-08-01

There is variation in radiotherapy fractionation practice, however, there is no evidence-based benchmark for appropriate activity. An evidence-based model was constructed to estimate the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy for breast cancer to aid in services planning and performance benchmarking. The published breast cancer radiotherapy utilisation model was adapted. Evidence-based number of fractions was added to each radiotherapy indication. The overall optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of uncertainties on the model. For the entire Australian breast cancer patient population, the estimated optimal number of fractions per patient was 16.8, 14.6, 13.7 and 0.8 for ductal carcinoma in situ, early, advanced and metastatic breast cancer respectively. Overall, the optimal number of fractions per patient was 14.4 (range 14.4-18.7). These results allow comparison with actual practices, and workload prediction to aid in services planning. The model can be easily adapted to other countries by inserting population-specific epidemiological data, and to future changes in cancer incidence, stage distribution and fractionation recommendations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

State estimation bias induced by optimization under uncertainty and error cost asymmetry is likely reflected in perception.

PubMed

Shimansky, Y P

2011-05-01

It is well known from numerous studies that perception can be significantly affected by intended action in many everyday situations, indicating that perception and related decision-making is not a simple, one-way sequence, but a complex iterative cognitive process. However, the underlying functional mechanisms are yet unclear. Based on an optimality approach, a quantitative computational model of one such mechanism has been developed in this study. It is assumed in the model that significant uncertainty about task-related parameters of the environment results in parameter estimation errors and an optimal control system should minimize the cost of such errors in terms of the optimality criterion. It is demonstrated that, if the cost of a parameter estimation error is significantly asymmetrical with respect to error direction, the tendency to minimize error cost creates a systematic deviation of the optimal parameter estimate from its maximum likelihood value. Consequently, optimization of parameter estimate and optimization of control action cannot be performed separately from each other under parameter uncertainty combined with asymmetry of estimation error cost, thus making the certainty equivalence principle non-applicable under those conditions. A hypothesis that not only the action, but also perception itself is biased by the above deviation of parameter estimate is supported by ample experimental evidence. The results provide important insights into the cognitive mechanisms of interaction between sensory perception and planning an action under realistic conditions. Implications for understanding related functional mechanisms of optimal control in the CNS are discussed.

Optimal control of nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form.

PubMed

Zargarzadeh, Hassan; Dierks, Travis; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a novel optimal tracking control scheme for nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form with uncertain dynamics. The optimal tracking problem is transformed into an equivalent optimal regulation problem through a feedforward adaptive control input that is generated by modifying the standard backstepping technique. Subsequently, a neural network-based optimal control scheme is introduced to estimate the cost, or value function, over an infinite horizon for the resulting nonlinear continuous-time systems in affine form when the internal dynamics are unknown. The estimated cost function is then used to obtain the optimal feedback control input; therefore, the overall optimal control input for the nonlinear continuous-time system in strict-feedback form includes the feedforward plus the optimal feedback terms. It is shown that the estimated cost function minimizes the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman estimation error in a forward-in-time manner without using any value or policy iterations. Finally, optimal output feedback control is introduced through the design of a suitable observer. Lyapunov theory is utilized to show the overall stability of the proposed schemes without requiring an initial admissible controller. Simulation examples are provided to validate the theoretical results.

Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

PubMed

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

2017-05-24

In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis.

PubMed

Tashkova, Katerina; Korošec, Peter; Silc, Jurij; Todorovski, Ljupčo; Džeroski, Sašo

2011-10-11

We address the task of parameter estimation in models of the dynamics of biological systems based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from measured data, where the models are typically non-linear and have many parameters, the measurements are imperfect due to noise, and the studied system can often be only partially observed. A representative task is to estimate the parameters in a model of the dynamics of endocytosis, i.e., endosome maturation, reflected in a cut-out switch transition between the Rab5 and Rab7 domain protein concentrations, from experimental measurements of these concentrations. The general parameter estimation task and the specific instance considered here are challenging optimization problems, calling for the use of advanced meta-heuristic optimization methods, such as evolutionary or swarm-based methods. We apply three global-search meta-heuristic algorithms for numerical optimization, i.e., differential ant-stigmergy algorithm (DASA), particle-swarm optimization (PSO), and differential evolution (DE), as well as a local-search derivative-based algorithm 717 (A717) to the task of estimating parameters in ODEs. We evaluate their performance on the considered representative task along a number of metrics, including the quality of reconstructing the system output and the complete dynamics, as well as the speed of convergence, both on real-experimental data and on artificial pseudo-experimental data with varying amounts of noise. We compare the four optimization methods under a range of observation scenarios, where data of different completeness and accuracy of interpretation are given as input. Overall, the global meta-heuristic methods (DASA, PSO, and DE) clearly and significantly outperform the local derivative-based method (A717). Among the three meta-heuristics, differential evolution (DE) performs best in terms of the objective function, i.e., reconstructing the output, and in terms of convergence. These results hold for both real and artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background We address the task of parameter estimation in models of the dynamics of biological systems based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from measured data, where the models are typically non-linear and have many parameters, the measurements are imperfect due to noise, and the studied system can often be only partially observed. A representative task is to estimate the parameters in a model of the dynamics of endocytosis, i.e., endosome maturation, reflected in a cut-out switch transition between the Rab5 and Rab7 domain protein concentrations, from experimental measurements of these concentrations. The general parameter estimation task and the specific instance considered here are challenging optimization problems, calling for the use of advanced meta-heuristic optimization methods, such as evolutionary or swarm-based methods. Results We apply three global-search meta-heuristic algorithms for numerical optimization, i.e., differential ant-stigmergy algorithm (DASA), particle-swarm optimization (PSO), and differential evolution (DE), as well as a local-search derivative-based algorithm 717 (A717) to the task of estimating parameters in ODEs. We evaluate their performance on the considered representative task along a number of metrics, including the quality of reconstructing the system output and the complete dynamics, as well as the speed of convergence, both on real-experimental data and on artificial pseudo-experimental data with varying amounts of noise. We compare the four optimization methods under a range of observation scenarios, where data of different completeness and accuracy of interpretation are given as input. Conclusions Overall, the global meta-heuristic methods (DASA, PSO, and DE) clearly and significantly outperform the local derivative-based method (A717). Among the three meta-heuristics, differential evolution (DE) performs best in terms of the objective function, i.e., reconstructing the output, and in terms of convergence. These results hold for both real and artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology. PMID:21989196

Airborne data measurement system errors reduction through state estimation and control optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebryakov, G. G.; Muzhichek, S. M.; Pavlov, V. I.; Ermolin, O. V.; Skrinnikov, A. A.

2018-02-01

The paper discusses the problem of airborne data measurement system errors reduction through state estimation and control optimization. The approaches are proposed based on the methods of experiment design and the theory of systems with random abrupt structure variation. The paper considers various control criteria as applied to an aircraft data measurement system. The physics of criteria is explained, the mathematical description and the sequence of steps for each criterion application is shown. The formula is given for airborne data measurement system state vector posterior estimation based for systems with structure variations.

Parameter Estimation of Fractional-Order Chaotic Systems by Using Quantum Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Huang, Yu; Guo, Feng; Li, Yongling; Liu, Yufeng

2015-01-01

Parameter estimation for fractional-order chaotic systems is an important issue in fractional-order chaotic control and synchronization and could be essentially formulated as a multidimensional optimization problem. A novel algorithm called quantum parallel particle swarm optimization (QPPSO) is proposed to solve the parameter estimation for fractional-order chaotic systems. The parallel characteristic of quantum computing is used in QPPSO. This characteristic increases the calculation of each generation exponentially. The behavior of particles in quantum space is restrained by the quantum evolution equation, which consists of the current rotation angle, individual optimal quantum rotation angle, and global optimal quantum rotation angle. Numerical simulation based on several typical fractional-order systems and comparisons with some typical existing algorithms show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. PMID:25603158

Adaptive disturbance compensation finite control set optimal control for PMSM systems based on sliding mode extended state observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yun-jie; Li, Guo-fei

2018-01-01

Based on sliding mode extended state observer (SMESO) technique, an adaptive disturbance compensation finite control set optimal control (FCS-OC) strategy is proposed for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) system driven by voltage source inverter (VSI). So as to improve robustness of finite control set optimal control strategy, a SMESO is proposed to estimate the output-effect disturbance. The estimated value is fed back to finite control set optimal controller for implementing disturbance compensation. It is indicated through theoretical analysis that the designed SMESO could converge in finite time. The simulation results illustrate that the proposed adaptive disturbance compensation FCS-OC possesses better dynamical response behavior in the presence of disturbance.

Sulcal set optimization for cortical surface registration.

PubMed

Joshi, Anand A; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Li, Quanzheng; Damasio, Hanna; Shattuck, David W; Toga, Arthur W; Leahy, Richard M

2010-04-15

Flat mapping based cortical surface registration constrained by manually traced sulcal curves has been widely used for inter subject comparisons of neuroanatomical data. Even for an experienced neuroanatomist, manual sulcal tracing can be quite time consuming, with the cost increasing with the number of sulcal curves used for registration. We present a method for estimation of an optimal subset of size N(C) from N possible candidate sulcal curves that minimizes a mean squared error metric over all combinations of N(C) curves. The resulting procedure allows us to estimate a subset with a reduced number of curves to be traced as part of the registration procedure leading to optimal use of manual labeling effort for registration. To minimize the error metric we analyze the correlation structure of the errors in the sulcal curves by modeling them as a multivariate Gaussian distribution. For a given subset of sulci used as constraints in surface registration, the proposed model estimates registration error based on the correlation structure of the sulcal errors. The optimal subset of constraint curves consists of the N(C) sulci that jointly minimize the estimated error variance for the subset of unconstrained curves conditioned on the N(C) constraint curves. The optimal subsets of sulci are presented and the estimated and actual registration errors for these subsets are computed. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Essays on variational approximation techniques for stochastic optimization problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deride Silva, Julio A.

This dissertation presents five essays on approximation and modeling techniques, based on variational analysis, applied to stochastic optimization problems. It is divided into two parts, where the first is devoted to equilibrium problems and maxinf optimization, and the second corresponds to two essays in statistics and uncertainty modeling. Stochastic optimization lies at the core of this research as we were interested in relevant equilibrium applications that contain an uncertain component, and the design of a solution strategy. In addition, every stochastic optimization problem relies heavily on the underlying probability distribution that models the uncertainty. We studied these distributions, in particular, their design process and theoretical properties such as their convergence. Finally, the last aspect of stochastic optimization that we covered is the scenario creation problem, in which we described a procedure based on a probabilistic model to create scenarios for the applied problem of power estimation of renewable energies. In the first part, Equilibrium problems and maxinf optimization, we considered three Walrasian equilibrium problems: from economics, we studied a stochastic general equilibrium problem in a pure exchange economy, described in Chapter 3, and a stochastic general equilibrium with financial contracts, in Chapter 4; finally from engineering, we studied an infrastructure planning problem in Chapter 5. We stated these problems as belonging to the maxinf optimization class and, in each instance, we provided an approximation scheme based on the notion of lopsided convergence and non-concave duality. This strategy is the foundation of the augmented Walrasian algorithm, whose convergence is guaranteed by lopsided convergence, that was implemented computationally, obtaining numerical results for relevant examples. The second part, Essays about statistics and uncertainty modeling, contains two essays covering a convergence problem for a sequence of estimators, and a problem for creating probabilistic scenarios on renewable energies estimation. In Chapter 7 we re-visited one of the "folk theorems" in statistics, where a family of Bayes estimators under 0-1 loss functions is claimed to converge to the maximum a posteriori estimator. This assertion is studied under the scope of the hypo-convergence theory, and the density functions are included in the class of upper semicontinuous functions. We conclude this chapter with an example in which the convergence does not hold true, and we provided sufficient conditions that guarantee convergence. The last chapter, Chapter 8, addresses the important topic of creating probabilistic scenarios for solar power generation. Scenarios are a fundamental input for the stochastic optimization problem of energy dispatch, especially when incorporating renewables. We proposed a model designed to capture the constraints induced by physical characteristics of the variables based on the application of an epi-spline density estimation along with a copula estimation, in order to account for partial correlations between variables.

Novel multireceiver communication systems configurations based on optimal estimation theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Rajendra

1992-01-01

A novel multireceiver configuration for carrier arraying and/or signal arraying is presented. The proposed configuration is obtained by formulating the carrier and/or signal arraying problem as an optimal estimation problem, and it consists of two stages. The first stage optimally estimates various phase processes received at different receivers with coupled phase-locked loops wherein the individual loops acquire and track their respective receivers' phase processes but are aided by each other in an optimal manner via LF error signals. The proposed configuration results in the minimization of the the effective radio loss at the combiner output, and thus maximization of energy per bit to noise power spectral density ratio is achieved. A novel adaptive algorithm for the estimator of the signal model parameters when these are not known a priori is also presented.

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation. Copyright ?? 2005 The Author(s).

A comparison between Gauss-Newton and Markov chain Monte Carlo basedmethods for inverting spectral induced polarization data for Cole-Coleparameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong; Kemna, Andreas; Hubbard, Susan S.

2008-05-15

We develop a Bayesian model to invert spectral induced polarization (SIP) data for Cole-Cole parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods. We compare the performance of the MCMC based stochastic method with an iterative Gauss-Newton based deterministic method for Cole-Cole parameter estimation through inversion of synthetic and laboratory SIP data. The Gauss-Newton based method can provide an optimal solution for given objective functions under constraints, but the obtained optimal solution generally depends on the choice of initial values and the estimated uncertainty information is often inaccurate or insufficient. In contrast, the MCMC based inversion method provides extensive globalmore » information on unknown parameters, such as the marginal probability distribution functions, from which we can obtain better estimates and tighter uncertainty bounds of the parameters than with the deterministic method. Additionally, the results obtained with the MCMC method are independent of the choice of initial values. Because the MCMC based method does not explicitly offer single optimal solution for given objective functions, the deterministic and stochastic methods can complement each other. For example, the stochastic method can first be used to obtain the means of the unknown parameters by starting from an arbitrary set of initial values and the deterministic method can then be initiated using the means as starting values to obtain the optimal estimates of the Cole-Cole parameters.« less

Estimating leaf nitrogen accumulation in maize based on canopy hyperspectrum data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Xiaohe; Wang, Lizhi; Song, Xiaoyu; Xu, Xingang

2016-10-01

Leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA) has important influence on the formation of crop yield and grain protein. Monitoring leaf nitrogen accumulation of crop canopy quantitively and real-timely is helpful for mastering crop nutrition status, diagnosing group growth and managing fertilization precisely. The study aimed to develop a universal method to monitor LNA of maize by hyperspectrum data, which could provide mechanism support for mapping LNA of maize at county scale. The correlations between LNA and hyperspectrum reflectivity and its mathematical transformations were analyzed. Then the feature bands and its transformations were screened to develop the optimal model of estimating LNA based on multiple linear regression method. The in-situ samples were used to evaluate the accuracy of the estimating model. Results showed that the estimating model with one differential logarithmic transformation (lgP') of reflectivity could reach highest correlation coefficient (0.889) with lowest RMSE (0.646 g·m-2), which was considered as the optimal model for estimating LNA in maize. The determination coefficient (R2) of testing samples was 0.831, while the RMSE was 1.901 g·m-2. It indicated that the one differential logarithmic transformation of hyperspectrum had good response with LNA of maize. Based on this transformation, the optimal estimating model of LNA could reach good accuracy with high stability.

Estimating Origin-Destination Matrices Using AN Efficient Moth Flame-Based Spatial Clustering Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, A. A.; Moayedi, A.; Abbaspour, R. Ali

2017-09-01

Automated fare collection (AFC) systems are regarded as valuable resources for public transport planners. In this paper, the AFC data are utilized to analysis and extract mobility patterns in a public transportation system. For this purpose, the smart card data are inserted into a proposed metaheuristic-based aggregation model and then converted to O-D matrix between stops, since the size of O-D matrices makes it difficult to reproduce the measured passenger flows precisely. The proposed strategy is applied to a case study from Haaglanden, Netherlands. In this research, moth-flame optimizer (MFO) is utilized and evaluated for the first time as a new metaheuristic algorithm (MA) in estimating transit origin-destination matrices. The MFO is a novel, efficient swarm-based MA inspired from the celestial navigation of moth insects in nature. To investigate the capabilities of the proposed MFO-based approach, it is compared to methods that utilize the K-means algorithm, gray wolf optimization algorithm (GWO) and genetic algorithm (GA). The sum of the intra-cluster distances and computational time of operations are considered as the evaluation criteria to assess the efficacy of the optimizers. The optimality of solutions of different algorithms is measured in detail. The traveler's behavior is analyzed to achieve to a smooth and optimized transport system. The results reveal that the proposed MFO-based aggregation strategy can outperform other evaluated approaches in terms of convergence tendency and optimality of the results. The results show that it can be utilized as an efficient approach to estimating the transit O-D matrices.

Researches of fruit quality prediction model based on near infrared spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yulin; Li, Lian

2018-04-01

With the improvement in standards for food quality and safety, people pay more attention to the internal quality of fruits, therefore the measurement of fruit internal quality is increasingly imperative. In general, nondestructive soluble solid content (SSC) and total acid content (TAC) analysis of fruits is vital and effective for quality measurement in global fresh produce markets, so in this paper, we aim at establishing a novel fruit internal quality prediction model based on SSC and TAC for Near Infrared Spectrum. Firstly, the model of fruit quality prediction based on PCA + BP neural network, PCA + GRNN network, PCA + BP adaboost strong classifier, PCA + ELM and PCA + LS_SVM classifier are designed and implemented respectively; then, in the NSCT domain, the median filter and the SavitzkyGolay filter are used to preprocess the spectral signal, Kennard-Stone algorithm is used to automatically select the training samples and test samples; thirdly, we achieve the optimal models by comparing 15 kinds of prediction model based on the theory of multi-classifier competition mechanism, specifically, the non-parametric estimation is introduced to measure the effectiveness of proposed model, the reliability and variance of nonparametric estimation evaluation of each prediction model to evaluate the prediction result, while the estimated value and confidence interval regard as a reference, the experimental results demonstrate that this model can better achieve the optimal evaluation of the internal quality of fruit; finally, we employ cat swarm optimization to optimize two optimal models above obtained from nonparametric estimation, empirical testing indicates that the proposed method can provide more accurate and effective results than other forecasting methods.

Research reactor loading pattern optimization using estimation of distribution algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, S.; Ziver, K.; AMCG Group, RM Consultants, Abingdon

2006-07-01

A new evolutionary search based approach for solving the nuclear reactor loading pattern optimization problems is presented based on the Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. The optimization technique developed is then applied to the maximization of the effective multiplication factor (K{sub eff}) of the Imperial College CONSORT research reactor (the last remaining civilian research reactor in the United Kingdom). A new elitism-guided searching strategy has been developed and applied to improve the local convergence together with some problem-dependent information based on the 'stand-alone K{sub eff} with fuel coupling calculations. A comparison study between the EDAs and a Genetic Algorithm with Heuristicmore » Tie Breaking Crossover operator has shown that the new algorithm is efficient and robust. (authors)« less

A Doppler centroid estimation algorithm for SAR systems optimized for the quasi-homogeneous source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Michael Y.

1989-01-01

Radar signal processing applications frequently require an estimate of the Doppler centroid of a received signal. The Doppler centroid estimate is required for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) processing. It is also required for some applications involving target motion estimation and antenna pointing direction estimation. In some cases, the Doppler centroid can be accurately estimated based on available information regarding the terrain topography, the relative motion between the sensor and the terrain, and the antenna pointing direction. Often, the accuracy of the Doppler centroid estimate can be improved by analyzing the characteristics of the received SAR signal. This kind of signal processing is also referred to as clutterlock processing. A Doppler centroid estimation (DCE) algorithm is described which contains a linear estimator optimized for the type of terrain surface that can be modeled by a quasi-homogeneous source (QHS). Information on the following topics is presented: (1) an introduction to the theory of Doppler centroid estimation; (2) analysis of the performance characteristics of previously reported DCE algorithms; (3) comparison of these analysis results with experimental results; (4) a description and performance analysis of a Doppler centroid estimator which is optimized for a QHS; and (5) comparison of the performance of the optimal QHS Doppler centroid estimator with that of previously reported methods.

Optimal design criteria - prediction vs. parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldl, Helmut

2014-05-01

G-optimality is a popular design criterion for optimal prediction, it tries to minimize the kriging variance over the whole design region. A G-optimal design minimizes the maximum variance of all predicted values. If we use kriging methods for prediction it is self-evident to use the kriging variance as a measure of uncertainty for the estimates. Though the computation of the kriging variance and even more the computation of the empirical kriging variance is computationally very costly and finding the maximum kriging variance in high-dimensional regions can be time demanding such that we cannot really find the G-optimal design with nowadays available computer equipment in practice. We cannot always avoid this problem by using space-filling designs because small designs that minimize the empirical kriging variance are often non-space-filling. D-optimality is the design criterion related to parameter estimation. A D-optimal design maximizes the determinant of the information matrix of the estimates. D-optimality in terms of trend parameter estimation and D-optimality in terms of covariance parameter estimation yield basically different designs. The Pareto frontier of these two competing determinant criteria corresponds with designs that perform well under both criteria. Under certain conditions searching the G-optimal design on the above Pareto frontier yields almost as good results as searching the G-optimal design in the whole design region. In doing so the maximum of the empirical kriging variance has to be computed only a few times though. The method is demonstrated by means of a computer simulation experiment based on data provided by the Belgian institute Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM) that describe the evolution of inorganic and organic carbon and nutrients, phytoplankton, bacteria and zooplankton in the Southern Bight of the North Sea.

Approximate approach for optimization space flights with a low thrust on the basis of sufficient optimality conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmin, Vadim V.

2017-01-01

Flight mechanics with a low-thrust is a new chapter of mechanics of space flight, considered plurality of all problems trajectory optimization and movement control laws and the design parameters of spacecraft. Thus tasks associated with taking into account the additional factors in mathematical models of the motion of spacecraft becomes increasingly important, as well as additional restrictions on the possibilities of the thrust vector control. The complication of the mathematical models of controlled motion leads to difficulties in solving optimization problems. Author proposed methods of finding approximate optimal control and evaluating their optimality based on analytical solutions. These methods are based on the principle of extending the class of admissible states and controls and sufficient conditions for the absolute minimum. Developed procedures of the estimation enabling to determine how close to the optimal founded solution, and indicate ways to improve them. Authors describes procedures of estimate for approximately optimal control laws for space flight mechanics problems, in particular for optimization flight low-thrust between the circular non-coplanar orbits, optimization the control angle and trajectory movement of the spacecraft during interorbital flights, optimization flights with low-thrust between arbitrary elliptical orbits Earth satellites.

Optimal pattern synthesis for speech recognition based on principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsun, O. N.; Poliyev, A. V.

2018-02-01

The algorithm for building an optimal pattern for the purpose of automatic speech recognition, which increases the probability of correct recognition, is developed and presented in this work. The optimal pattern forming is based on the decomposition of an initial pattern to principal components, which enables to reduce the dimension of multi-parameter optimization problem. At the next step the training samples are introduced and the optimal estimates for principal components decomposition coefficients are obtained by a numeric parameter optimization algorithm. Finally, we consider the experiment results that show the improvement in speech recognition introduced by the proposed optimization algorithm.

Optimal multi-dimensional poverty lines: The state of poverty in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameen, Jamal R. M.

2017-09-01

Poverty estimation based on calories intake is unrealistic. The established concept of multidimensional poverty has methodological weaknesses in the treatment of different dimensions and there is disagreement in methods of combining them into a single poverty line. This paper introduces a methodology to estimate optimal multidimensional poverty lines and uses the Iraqi household socio-economic survey data of 2012 to demonstrate the idea. The optimal poverty line for Iraq is found to be 170.5 Thousand Iraqi Dinars (TID).

Metabolic flux estimation using particle swarm optimization with penalty function.

PubMed

Long, Hai-Xia; Xu, Wen-Bo; Sun, Jun

2009-01-01

Metabolic flux estimation through 13C trace experiment is crucial for quantifying the intracellular metabolic fluxes. In fact, it corresponds to a constrained optimization problem that minimizes a weighted distance between measured and simulated results. In this paper, we propose particle swarm optimization (PSO) with penalty function to solve 13C-based metabolic flux estimation problem. The stoichiometric constraints are transformed to an unconstrained one, by penalizing the constraints and building a single objective function, which in turn is minimized using PSO algorithm for flux quantification. The proposed algorithm is applied to estimate the central metabolic fluxes of Corynebacterium glutamicum. From simulation results, it is shown that the proposed algorithm has superior performance and fast convergence ability when compared to other existing algorithms.

Comparison of optimal design methods in inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, H. T.; Holm, K.; Kappel, F.

2011-07-01

Typical optimal design methods for inverse or parameter estimation problems are designed to choose optimal sampling distributions through minimization of a specific cost function related to the resulting error in parameter estimates. It is hoped that the inverse problem will produce parameter estimates with increased accuracy using data collected according to the optimal sampling distribution. Here we formulate the classical optimal design problem in the context of general optimization problems over distributions of sampling times. We present a new Prohorov metric-based theoretical framework that permits one to treat succinctly and rigorously any optimal design criteria based on the Fisher information matrix. A fundamental approximation theory is also included in this framework. A new optimal design, SE-optimal design (standard error optimal design), is then introduced in the context of this framework. We compare this new design criterion with the more traditional D-optimal and E-optimal designs. The optimal sampling distributions from each design are used to compute and compare standard errors; the standard errors for parameters are computed using asymptotic theory or bootstrapping and the optimal mesh. We use three examples to illustrate ideas: the Verhulst-Pearl logistic population model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009 Mathematical and Experimental Modeling of Physical and Biological Processes (Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC)), the standard harmonic oscillator model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009) and a popular glucose regulation model (Bergman R N, Ider Y Z, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1979 Am. J. Physiol. 236 E667-77 De Gaetano A and Arino O 2000 J. Math. Biol. 40 136-68 Toffolo G, Bergman R N, Finegood D T, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1980 Diabetes 29 979-90).

Disaster debris estimation using high-resolution polarimetric stereo-SAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koyama, Christian N.; Gokon, Hideomi; Jimbo, Masaru; Koshimura, Shunichi; Sato, Motoyuki

2016-10-01

This paper addresses the problem of debris estimation which is one of the most important initial challenges in the wake of a disaster like the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Reasonable estimates of the debris have to be made available to decision makers as quickly as possible. Current approaches to obtain this information are far from being optimal as they usually rely on manual interpretation of optical imagery. We have developed a novel approach for the estimation of tsunami debris pile heights and volumes for improved emergency response. The method is based on a stereo-synthetic aperture radar (stereo-SAR) approach for very high-resolution polarimetric SAR. An advanced gradient-based optical-flow estimation technique is applied for optimal image coregistration of the low-coherence non-interferometric data resulting from the illumination from opposite directions and in different polarizations. By applying model based decomposition of the coherency matrix, only the odd bounce scattering contributions are used to optimize echo time computation. The method exclusively considers the relative height differences from the top of the piles to their base to achieve a very fine resolution in height estimation. To define the base, a reference point on non-debris-covered ground surface is located adjacent to the debris pile targets by exploiting the polarimetric scattering information. The proposed technique is validated using in situ data of real tsunami debris taken on a temporary debris management site in the tsunami affected area near Sendai city, Japan. The estimated height error is smaller than 0.6 m RMSE. The good quality of derived pile heights allows for a voxel-based estimation of debris volumes with a RMSE of 1099 m3. Advantages of the proposed method are fast computation time, and robust height and volume estimation of debris piles without the need for pre-event data or auxiliary information like DEM, topographic maps or GCPs.

Optimal estimation of entanglement in optical qubit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brida, Giorgio; Degiovanni, Ivo P.; Florio, Angela; Genovese, Marco; Giorda, Paolo; Meda, Alice; Paris, Matteo G. A.; Shurupov, Alexander P.

2011-05-01

We address the experimental determination of entanglement for systems made of a pair of polarization qubits. We exploit quantum estimation theory to derive optimal estimators, which are then implemented to achieve ultimate bound to precision. In particular, we present a set of experiments aimed at measuring the amount of entanglement for states belonging to different families of pure and mixed two-qubit two-photon states. Our scheme is based on visibility measurements of quantum correlations and achieves the ultimate precision allowed by quantum mechanics in the limit of Poissonian distribution of coincidence counts. Although optimal estimation of entanglement does not require the full tomography of the states we have also performed state reconstruction using two different sets of tomographic projectors and explicitly shown that they provide a less precise determination of entanglement. The use of optimal estimators also allows us to compare and statistically assess the different noise models used to describe decoherence effects occurring in the generation of entanglement.

Adaptive torque estimation of robot joint with harmonic drive transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Zhiguo; Li, Yuankai; Liu, Guangjun

2017-11-01

Robot joint torque estimation using input and output position measurements is a promising technique, but the result may be affected by the load variation of the joint. In this paper, a torque estimation method with adaptive robustness and optimality adjustment according to load variation is proposed for robot joint with harmonic drive transmission. Based on a harmonic drive model and a redundant adaptive robust Kalman filter (RARKF), the proposed approach can adapt torque estimation filtering optimality and robustness to the load variation by self-tuning the filtering gain and self-switching the filtering mode between optimal and robust. The redundant factor of RARKF is designed as a function of the motor current for tolerating the modeling error and load-dependent filtering mode switching. The proposed joint torque estimation method has been experimentally studied in comparison with a commercial torque sensor and two representative filtering methods. The results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed torque estimation technique.

An improved swarm optimization for parameter estimation and biological model selection.

PubMed

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

2013-01-01

One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This study is hoped to provide a new insight in developing more accurate and reliable biological models based on limited and low quality experimental data.

Statistical properties of alternative national forest inventory area estimators

Treesearch

Francis Roesch; John Coulston; Andrew D. Hill

2012-01-01

The statistical properties of potential estimators of forest area for the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program are presented and discussed. The current FIA area estimator is compared and contrasted with a weighted mean estimator and an estimator based on the Polya posterior, in the presence of nonresponse. Estimator optimality is...

Utilization of Radiation Therapy in Norway After the Implementation of The National Cancer Plan—A National, Population-Based Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Åsli, Linn M., E-mail: linn.merete.asli@kreftregisteret.no; Kvaløy, Stein O.; Jetne, Vidar

2014-11-01

Purpose: To estimate actual utilization rates of radiation therapy (RT) in Norway, describe time trends (1997-2010), and compare these estimates with corresponding optimal RT rates. Methods and Materials: Data from the population-based Cancer Registry of Norway was used to identify all patients diagnosed with cancer and/or treated by RT for cancer in 1997-2010. Radiation therapy utilization rates (RURs) were calculated as (1) the proportion of incident cancer cases who received RT at least once within 1 year of diagnosis (RUR{sub 1Y}); and (2) the proportion who received RT within 5 years of diagnosis (RUR{sub 5Y}). The number of RT treatment courses per incidentmore » cancer case (TCI) was also calculated for all cancer sites combined. The actual RURs were compared with corresponding Australian and Canadian epidemiologic- and evidence-based model estimates and criterion-based benchmark estimates of optimal RURs. The TCIs were compared with TCI estimates from the 1997 Norwegian/National Cancer Plan (NCP). Joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in trends and to estimate annual percentage change (APC) in actual RUR{sub 1Y} and actual TCI. Results: The actual RUR{sub 5Y} (all sites) increased significantly to 29% in 2005 but still differed markedly from the Australian epidemiologic- and evidence-based model estimate of 48%. With the exception of RUR{sub 5Y} for breast cancer and RUR{sub 1Y} for lung cancers, all actual RURs were markedly lower than optimal RUR estimates. The actual TCI increased significantly during the study period, reaching 42.5% in 2010, but was still lower than the 54% recommended in the NCP. The trend for RUR{sub 1Y} (all sites) and TCI changed significantly, with the annual percentage change being largest during the first part of the study period. Conclusions: Utilization rates of RT in Norway increased after the NCP was implemented and RT capacity was increased, but they still seem to be lower than optimal levels.« less

A two-step parameter optimization algorithm for improving estimation of optical properties using spatial frequency domain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Dong; Lu, Renfu; Ying, Yibin

2018-03-01

This research was aimed at optimizing the inverse algorithm for estimating the optical absorption (μa) and reduced scattering (μs‧) coefficients from spatial frequency domain diffuse reflectance. Studies were first conducted to determine the optimal frequency resolution and start and end frequencies in terms of the reciprocal of mean free path (1/mfp‧). The results showed that the optimal frequency resolution increased with μs‧ and remained stable when μs‧ was larger than 2 mm-1. The optimal end frequency decreased from 0.3/mfp‧ to 0.16/mfp‧ with μs‧ ranging from 0.4 mm-1 to 3 mm-1, while the optimal start frequency remained at 0 mm-1. A two-step parameter estimation method was proposed based on the optimized frequency parameters, which improved estimation accuracies by 37.5% and 9.8% for μa and μs‧, respectively, compared with the conventional one-step method. Experimental validations with seven liquid optical phantoms showed that the optimized algorithm resulted in the mean absolute errors of 15.4%, 7.6%, 5.0% for μa and 16.4%, 18.0%, 18.3% for μs‧ at the wavelengths of 675 nm, 700 nm, and 715 nm, respectively. Hence, implementation of the optimized parameter estimation method should be considered in order to improve the measurement of optical properties of biological materials when using spatial frequency domain imaging technique.

Optimized Free Energies from Bidirectional Single-Molecule Force Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, David D. L.; Adib, Artur B.

2008-05-01

An optimized method for estimating path-ensemble averages using data from processes driven in opposite directions is presented. Based on this estimator, bidirectional expressions for reconstructing free energies and potentials of mean force from single-molecule force spectroscopy—valid for biasing potentials of arbitrary stiffness—are developed. Numerical simulations on a model potential indicate that these methods perform better than unidirectional strategies.

The application of mean field theory to image motion estimation.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Hanauer, G G

1995-01-01

Previously, Markov random field (MRF) model-based techniques have been proposed for image motion estimation. Since motion estimation is usually an ill-posed problem, various constraints are needed to obtain a unique and stable solution. The main advantage of the MRF approach is its capacity to incorporate such constraints, for instance, motion continuity within an object and motion discontinuity at the boundaries between objects. In the MRF approach, motion estimation is often formulated as an optimization problem, and two frequently used optimization methods are simulated annealing (SA) and iterative-conditional mode (ICM). Although the SA is theoretically optimal in the sense of finding the global optimum, it usually takes many iterations to converge. The ICM, on the other hand, converges quickly, but its results are often unsatisfactory due to its "hard decision" nature. Previously, the authors have applied the mean field theory to image segmentation and image restoration problems. It provides results nearly as good as SA but with much faster convergence. The present paper shows how the mean field theory can be applied to MRF model-based motion estimation. This approach is demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world images, where it produced good motion estimates.

The Iterative Reweighted Mixed-Norm Estimate for Spatio-Temporal MEG/EEG Source Reconstruction.

PubMed

Strohmeier, Daniel; Bekhti, Yousra; Haueisen, Jens; Gramfort, Alexandre

2016-10-01

Source imaging based on magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) allows for the non-invasive analysis of brain activity with high temporal and good spatial resolution. As the bioelectromagnetic inverse problem is ill-posed, constraints are required. For the analysis of evoked brain activity, spatial sparsity of the neuronal activation is a common assumption. It is often taken into account using convex constraints based on the l 1 -norm. The resulting source estimates are however biased in amplitude and often suboptimal in terms of source selection due to high correlations in the forward model. In this work, we demonstrate that an inverse solver based on a block-separable penalty with a Frobenius norm per block and a l 0.5 -quasinorm over blocks addresses both of these issues. For solving the resulting non-convex optimization problem, we propose the iterative reweighted Mixed Norm Estimate (irMxNE), an optimization scheme based on iterative reweighted convex surrogate optimization problems, which are solved efficiently using a block coordinate descent scheme and an active set strategy. We compare the proposed sparse imaging method to the dSPM and the RAP-MUSIC approach based on two MEG data sets. We provide empirical evidence based on simulations and analysis of MEG data that the proposed method improves on the standard Mixed Norm Estimate (MxNE) in terms of amplitude bias, support recovery, and stability.

Reliability optimization design of the gear modification coefficient based on the meshing stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qianqian; Wang, Hui

2018-04-01

Since the time varying meshing stiffness of gear system is the key factor affecting gear vibration, it is important to design the meshing stiffness to reduce vibration. Based on the effect of gear modification coefficient on the meshing stiffness, considering the random parameters, reliability optimization design of the gear modification is researched. The dimension reduction and point estimation method is used to estimate the moment of the limit state function, and the reliability is obtained by the forth moment method. The cooperation of the dynamic amplitude results before and after optimization indicates that the research is useful for the reduction of vibration and noise and the improvement of the reliability.

A measurement fusion method for nonlinear system identification using a cooperative learning algorithm.

PubMed

Xia, Youshen; Kamel, Mohamed S

2007-06-01

Identification of a general nonlinear noisy system viewed as an estimation of a predictor function is studied in this article. A measurement fusion method for the predictor function estimate is proposed. In the proposed scheme, observed data are first fused by using an optimal fusion technique, and then the optimal fused data are incorporated in a nonlinear function estimator based on a robust least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM). A cooperative learning algorithm is proposed to implement the proposed measurement fusion method. Compared with related identification methods, the proposed method can minimize both the approximation error and the noise error. The performance analysis shows that the proposed optimal measurement fusion function estimate has a smaller mean square error than the LS-SVM function estimate. Moreover, the proposed cooperative learning algorithm can converge globally to the optimal measurement fusion function estimate. Finally, the proposed measurement fusion method is applied to ARMA signal and spatial temporal signal modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed measurement fusion method can provide a more accurate model.

Optimal word sizes for dissimilarity measures and estimation of the degree of dissimilarity between DNA sequences.

PubMed

Wu, Tiee-Jian; Huang, Ying-Hsueh; Li, Lung-An

2005-11-15

Several measures of DNA sequence dissimilarity have been developed. The purpose of this paper is 3-fold. Firstly, we compare the performance of several word-based or alignment-based methods. Secondly, we give a general guideline for choosing the window size and determining the optimal word sizes for several word-based measures at different window sizes. Thirdly, we use a large-scale simulation method to simulate data from the distribution of SK-LD (symmetric Kullback-Leibler discrepancy). These simulated data can be used to estimate the degree of dissimilarity beta between any pair of DNA sequences. Our study shows (1) for whole sequence similiarity/dissimilarity identification the window size taken should be as large as possible, but probably not >3000, as restricted by CPU time in practice, (2) for each measure the optimal word size increases with window size, (3) when the optimal word size is used, SK-LD performance is superior in both simulation and real data analysis, (4) the estimate beta of beta based on SK-LD can be used to filter out quickly a large number of dissimilar sequences and speed alignment-based database search for similar sequences and (5) beta is also applicable in local similarity comparison situations. For example, it can help in selecting oligo probes with high specificity and, therefore, has potential in probe design for microarrays. The algorithm SK-LD, estimate beta and simulation software are implemented in MATLAB code, and are available at http://www.stat.ncku.edu.tw/tjwu

Estimating contrast transfer function and associated parameters by constrained non-linear optimization.

PubMed

Yang, C; Jiang, W; Chen, D-H; Adiga, U; Ng, E G; Chiu, W

2009-03-01

The three-dimensional reconstruction of macromolecules from two-dimensional single-particle electron images requires determination and correction of the contrast transfer function (CTF) and envelope function. A computational algorithm based on constrained non-linear optimization is developed to estimate the essential parameters in the CTF and envelope function model simultaneously and automatically. The application of this estimation method is demonstrated with focal series images of amorphous carbon film as well as images of ice-embedded icosahedral virus particles suspended across holes.

Accurate Initial State Estimation in a Monocular Visual–Inertial SLAM System

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing; Zhou, Zixiang; Leng, Zhen; Fan, Lei

2018-01-01

The fusion of monocular visual and inertial cues has become popular in robotics, unmanned vehicles and augmented reality fields. Recent results have shown that optimization-based fusion strategies outperform filtering strategies. Robust state estimation is the core capability for optimization-based visual–inertial Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) systems. As a result of the nonlinearity of visual–inertial systems, the performance heavily relies on the accuracy of initial values (visual scale, gravity, velocity and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) biases). Therefore, this paper aims to propose a more accurate initial state estimation method. On the basis of the known gravity magnitude, we propose an approach to refine the estimated gravity vector by optimizing the two-dimensional (2D) error state on its tangent space, then estimate the accelerometer bias separately, which is difficult to be distinguished under small rotation. Additionally, we propose an automatic termination criterion to determine when the initialization is successful. Once the initial state estimation converges, the initial estimated values are used to launch the nonlinear tightly coupled visual–inertial SLAM system. We have tested our approaches with the public EuRoC dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed methods can achieve good initial state estimation, the gravity refinement approach is able to efficiently speed up the convergence process of the estimated gravity vector, and the termination criterion performs well. PMID:29419751

Influence of cost functions and optimization methods on solving the inverse problem in spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakotomanga, Prisca; Soussen, Charles; Blondel, Walter C. P. M.

2017-03-01

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) has been acknowledged as a valuable optical biopsy tool for in vivo characterizing pathological modifications in epithelial tissues such as cancer. In spatially resolved DRS, accurate and robust estimation of the optical parameters (OP) of biological tissues is a major challenge due to the complexity of the physical models. Solving this inverse problem requires to consider 3 components: the forward model, the cost function, and the optimization algorithm. This paper presents a comparative numerical study of the performances in estimating OP depending on the choice made for each of the latter components. Mono- and bi-layer tissue models are considered. Monowavelength (scalar) absorption and scattering coefficients are estimated. As a forward model, diffusion approximation analytical solutions with and without noise are implemented. Several cost functions are evaluated possibly including normalized data terms. Two local optimization methods, Levenberg-Marquardt and TrustRegion-Reflective, are considered. Because they may be sensitive to the initial setting, a global optimization approach is proposed to improve the estimation accuracy. This algorithm is based on repeated calls to the above-mentioned local methods, with initial parameters randomly sampled. Two global optimization methods, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are also implemented. Estimation performances are evaluated in terms of relative errors between the ground truth and the estimated values for each set of unknown OP. The combination between the number of variables to be estimated, the nature of the forward model, the cost function to be minimized and the optimization method are discussed.

Particle swarm optimization algorithm based parameters estimation and control of epileptiform spikes in a neural mass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Bonan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Wei, Xile; Yu, Haitao; Zhang, Zhen; Li, Huiyan

2016-07-01

This paper proposes an epilepsy detection and closed-loop control strategy based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed strategy can effectively suppress the epileptic spikes in neural mass models, where the epileptiform spikes are recognized as the biomarkers of transitions from the normal (interictal) activity to the seizure (ictal) activity. In addition, the PSO algorithm shows capabilities of accurate estimation for the time evolution of key model parameters and practical detection for all the epileptic spikes. The estimation effects of unmeasurable parameters are improved significantly compared with unscented Kalman filter. When the estimated excitatory-inhibitory ratio exceeds a threshold value, the epileptiform spikes can be inhibited immediately by adopting the proportion-integration controller. Besides, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method as well as the potential value for the model-based early seizure detection and closed-loop control treatment design.

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Guilong

2001-01-01

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Model-Based Engine Control Architecture with an Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the design and implementation of an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for model-based engine control (MBEC). Previously proposed MBEC architectures feature an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to produce estimates of both unmeasured engine parameters and estimates for the health of the engine. The success of this approach relies on the accuracy of the linear model and the ability of the optimal tuner to update its tuner estimates based on only a few sensors. Advances in computer processing are making it possible to replace the piece-wise linear model, developed off-line, with an on-board nonlinear model running in real-time. This will reduce the estimation errors associated with the linearization process, and is typically referred to as an extended Kalman filter. The non-linear extended Kalman filter approach is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40,000 (C-MAPSS40k) and compared to the previously proposed MBEC architecture. The results show that the EKF reduces the estimation error, especially during transient operation.

Model-Based Engine Control Architecture with an Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the design and implementation of an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for model-based engine control (MBEC). Previously proposed MBEC architectures feature an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to produce estimates of both unmeasured engine parameters and estimates for the health of the engine. The success of this approach relies on the accuracy of the linear model and the ability of the optimal tuner to update its tuner estimates based on only a few sensors. Advances in computer processing are making it possible to replace the piece-wise linear model, developed off-line, with an on-board nonlinear model running in real-time. This will reduce the estimation errors associated with the linearization process, and is typically referred to as an extended Kalman filter. The nonlinear extended Kalman filter approach is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40,000 (C-MAPSS40k) and compared to the previously proposed MBEC architecture. The results show that the EKF reduces the estimation error, especially during transient operation.

Waveform Optimization for Target Estimation by Cognitive Radar with Multiple Antennas.

PubMed

Yao, Yu; Zhao, Junhui; Wu, Lenan

2018-05-29

A new scheme based on Kalman filtering to optimize the waveforms of an adaptive multi-antenna radar system for target impulse response (TIR) estimation is presented. This work aims to improve the performance of TIR estimation by making use of the temporal correlation between successive received signals, and minimize the mean square error (MSE) of TIR estimation. The waveform design approach is based upon constant learning from the target feature at the receiver. Under the multiple antennas scenario, a dynamic feedback loop control system is established to real-time monitor the change in the target features extracted form received signals. The transmitter adapts its transmitted waveform to suit the time-invariant environment. Finally, the simulation results show that, as compared with the waveform design method based on the MAP criterion, the proposed waveform design algorithm is able to improve the performance of TIR estimation for extended targets with multiple iterations, and has a relatively lower level of complexity.

Evaluation of optimized b-value sampling schemas for diffusion kurtosis imaging with an application to stroke patient data

PubMed Central

Yan, Xu; Zhou, Minxiong; Ying, Lingfang; Yin, Dazhi; Fan, Mingxia; Yang, Guang; Zhou, Yongdi; Song, Fan; Xu, Dongrong

2013-01-01

Diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) is a new method of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that provides non-Gaussian information that is not available in conventional diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). DKI requires data acquisition at multiple b-values for parameter estimation; this process is usually time-consuming. Therefore, fewer b-values are preferable to expedite acquisition. In this study, we carefully evaluated various acquisition schemas using different numbers and combinations of b-values. Acquisition schemas that sampled b-values that were distributed to two ends were optimized. Compared to conventional schemas using equally spaced b-values (ESB), optimized schemas require fewer b-values to minimize fitting errors in parameter estimation and may thus significantly reduce scanning time. Following a ranked list of optimized schemas resulted from the evaluation, we recommend the 3b schema based on its estimation accuracy and time efficiency, which needs data from only 3 b-values at 0, around 800 and around 2600 s/mm2, respectively. Analyses using voxel-based analysis (VBA) and region-of-interest (ROI) analysis with human DKI datasets support the use of the optimized 3b (0, 1000, 2500 s/mm2) DKI schema in practical clinical applications. PMID:23735303

Multi-objective optimization in quantum parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, BeiLi; Cui, Wei

2018-04-01

We investigate quantum parameter estimation based on linear and Kerr-type nonlinear controls in an open quantum system, and consider the dissipation rate as an unknown parameter. We show that while the precision of parameter estimation is improved, it usually introduces a significant deformation to the system state. Moreover, we propose a multi-objective model to optimize the two conflicting objectives: (1) maximizing the Fisher information, improving the parameter estimation precision, and (2) minimizing the deformation of the system state, which maintains its fidelity. Finally, simulations of a simplified ɛ-constrained model demonstrate the feasibility of the Hamiltonian control in improving the precision of the quantum parameter estimation.

Composite Particle Swarm Optimizer With Historical Memory for Function Optimization.

PubMed

Li, Jie; Zhang, JunQi; Jiang, ChangJun; Zhou, MengChu

2015-10-01

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is a population-based stochastic optimization technique. It is characterized by the collaborative search in which each particle is attracted toward the global best position (gbest) in the swarm and its own best position (pbest). However, all of particles' historical promising pbests in PSO are lost except their current pbests. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a novel composite PSO algorithm, called historical memory-based PSO (HMPSO), which uses an estimation of distribution algorithm to estimate and preserve the distribution information of particles' historical promising pbests. Each particle has three candidate positions, which are generated from the historical memory, particles' current pbests, and the swarm's gbest. Then the best candidate position is adopted. Experiments on 28 CEC2013 benchmark functions demonstrate the superiority of HMPSO over other algorithms.

Temporal Data Set Reduction Based on D-Optimality for Quantitative FLIM-FRET Imaging.

PubMed

Omer, Travis; Intes, Xavier; Hahn, Juergen

2015-01-01

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) when paired with Förster resonance energy transfer (FLIM-FRET) enables the monitoring of nanoscale interactions in living biological samples. FLIM-FRET model-based estimation methods allow the quantitative retrieval of parameters such as the quenched (interacting) and unquenched (non-interacting) fractional populations of the donor fluorophore and/or the distance of the interactions. The quantitative accuracy of such model-based approaches is dependent on multiple factors such as signal-to-noise ratio and number of temporal points acquired when sampling the fluorescence decays. For high-throughput or in vivo applications of FLIM-FRET, it is desirable to acquire a limited number of temporal points for fast acquisition times. Yet, it is critical to acquire temporal data sets with sufficient information content to allow for accurate FLIM-FRET parameter estimation. Herein, an optimal experimental design approach based upon sensitivity analysis is presented in order to identify the time points that provide the best quantitative estimates of the parameters for a determined number of temporal sampling points. More specifically, the D-optimality criterion is employed to identify, within a sparse temporal data set, the set of time points leading to optimal estimations of the quenched fractional population of the donor fluorophore. Overall, a reduced set of 10 time points (compared to a typical complete set of 90 time points) was identified to have minimal impact on parameter estimation accuracy (≈5%), with in silico and in vivo experiment validations. This reduction of the number of needed time points by almost an order of magnitude allows the use of FLIM-FRET for certain high-throughput applications which would be infeasible if the entire number of time sampling points were used.

An Integrated Method Based on PSO and EDA for the Max-Cut Problem.

PubMed

Lin, Geng; Guan, Jian

2016-01-01

The max-cut problem is NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem with many real world applications. In this paper, we propose an integrated method based on particle swarm optimization and estimation of distribution algorithm (PSO-EDA) for solving the max-cut problem. The integrated algorithm overcomes the shortcomings of particle swarm optimization and estimation of distribution algorithm. To enhance the performance of the PSO-EDA, a fast local search procedure is applied. In addition, a path relinking procedure is developed to intensify the search. To evaluate the performance of PSO-EDA, extensive experiments were carried out on two sets of benchmark instances with 800 to 20,000 vertices from the literature. Computational results and comparisons show that PSO-EDA significantly outperforms the existing PSO-based and EDA-based algorithms for the max-cut problem. Compared with other best performing algorithms, PSO-EDA is able to find very competitive results in terms of solution quality.

Population Pharmacokinetics and Optimal Sampling Strategy for Model-Based Precision Dosing of Melphalan in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Mizuno, Kana; Dong, Min; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Chandra, Sharat; Mehta, Parinda A; McConnell, Scott; Anaissie, Elias J; Vinks, Alexander A

2018-05-01

High-dose melphalan is an important component of conditioning regimens for patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The current dosing strategy based on body surface area results in a high incidence of oral mucositis and gastrointestinal and liver toxicity. Pharmacokinetically guided dosing will individualize exposure and help minimize overexposure-related toxicity. The purpose of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model and optimal sampling strategy. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with NONMEM using 98 observations collected from 15 adult patients given the standard dose of 140 or 200 mg/m 2 by intravenous infusion. The determinant-optimal sampling strategy was explored with PopED software. Individual area under the curve estimates were generated by Bayesian estimation using full and the proposed sparse sampling data. The predictive performance of the optimal sampling strategy was evaluated based on bias and precision estimates. The feasibility of the optimal sampling strategy was tested using pharmacokinetic data from five pediatric patients. A two-compartment model best described the data. The final model included body weight and creatinine clearance as predictors of clearance. The determinant-optimal sampling strategies (and windows) were identified at 0.08 (0.08-0.19), 0.61 (0.33-0.90), 2.0 (1.3-2.7), and 4.0 (3.6-4.0) h post-infusion. An excellent correlation was observed between area under the curve estimates obtained with the full and the proposed four-sample strategy (R 2  = 0.98; p < 0.01) with a mean bias of -2.2% and precision of 9.4%. A similar relationship was observed in children (R 2  = 0.99; p < 0.01). The developed pharmacokinetic model-based sparse sampling strategy promises to achieve the target area under the curve as part of precision dosing.

A near-optimal low complexity sensor fusion technique for accurate indoor localization based on ultrasound time of arrival measurements from low-quality sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitilineos, Stelios A.; Argyreas, Nick D.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2009-05-01

A fusion-based localization technique for location-based services in indoor environments is introduced herein, based on ultrasound time-of-arrival measurements from multiple off-the-shelf range estimating sensors which are used in a market-available localization system. In-situ field measurements results indicated that the respective off-the-shelf system was unable to estimate position in most of the cases, while the underlying sensors are of low-quality and yield highly inaccurate range and position estimates. An extensive analysis is performed and a model of the sensor-performance characteristics is established. A low-complexity but accurate sensor fusion and localization technique is then developed, which consists inof evaluating multiple sensor measurements and selecting the one that is considered most-accurate based on the underlying sensor model. Optimality, in the sense of a genie selecting the optimum sensor, is subsequently evaluated and compared to the proposed technique. The experimental results indicate that the proposed fusion method exhibits near-optimal performance and, albeit being theoretically suboptimal, it largely overcomes most flaws of the underlying single-sensor system resulting in a localization system of increased accuracy, robustness and availability.

Estimation and detection information trade-off for x-ray system optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushing, Johnathan B.; Clarkson, Eric W.; Mandava, Sagar; Bilgin, Ali

2016-05-01

X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) systems perform complex imaging tasks to detect and estimate system parameters, such as a baggage imaging system performing threat detection and generating reconstructions. This leads to a desire to optimize both the detection and estimation performance of a system, but most metrics only focus on one of these aspects. When making design choices there is a need for a concise metric which considers both detection and estimation information parameters, and then provides the user with the collection of possible optimal outcomes. In this paper a graphical analysis of Estimation and Detection Information Trade-off (EDIT) will be explored. EDIT produces curves which allow for a decision to be made for system optimization based on design constraints and costs associated with estimation and detection. EDIT analyzes the system in the estimation information and detection information space where the user is free to pick their own method of calculating these measures. The user of EDIT can choose any desired figure of merit for detection information and estimation information then the EDIT curves will provide the collection of optimal outcomes. The paper will first look at two methods of creating EDIT curves. These curves can be calculated using a wide variety of systems and finding the optimal system by maximizing a figure of merit. EDIT could also be found as an upper bound of the information from a collection of system. These two methods allow for the user to choose a method of calculation which best fits the constraints of their actual system.

Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

1977-01-01

An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

Inertial sensor-based smoother for gait analysis.

PubMed

Suh, Young Soo

2014-12-17

An off-line smoother algorithm is proposed to estimate foot motion using an inertial sensor unit (three-axis gyroscopes and accelerometers) attached to a shoe. The smoother gives more accurate foot motion estimation than filter-based algorithms by using all of the sensor data instead of using the current sensor data. The algorithm consists of two parts. In the first part, a Kalman filter is used to obtain initial foot motion estimation. In the second part, the error in the initial estimation is compensated using a smoother, where the problem is formulated in the quadratic optimization problem. An efficient solution of the quadratic optimization problem is given using the sparse structure. Through experiments, it is shown that the proposed algorithm can estimate foot motion more accurately than a filter-based algorithm with reasonable computation time. In particular, there is significant improvement in the foot motion estimation when the foot is moving off the floor: the z-axis position error squared sum (total time: 3.47 s) when the foot is in the air is 0.0807 m2 (Kalman filter) and 0.0020 m2 (the proposed smoother).

A fast elitism Gaussian estimation of distribution algorithm and application for PID optimization.

PubMed

Xu, Qingyang; Zhang, Chengjin; Zhang, Li

2014-01-01

Estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) is an intelligent optimization algorithm based on the probability statistics theory. A fast elitism Gaussian estimation of distribution algorithm (FEGEDA) is proposed in this paper. The Gaussian probability model is used to model the solution distribution. The parameters of Gaussian come from the statistical information of the best individuals by fast learning rule. A fast learning rule is used to enhance the efficiency of the algorithm, and an elitism strategy is used to maintain the convergent performance. The performances of the algorithm are examined based upon several benchmarks. In the simulations, a one-dimensional benchmark is used to visualize the optimization process and probability model learning process during the evolution, and several two-dimensional and higher dimensional benchmarks are used to testify the performance of FEGEDA. The experimental results indicate the capability of FEGEDA, especially in the higher dimensional problems, and the FEGEDA exhibits a better performance than some other algorithms and EDAs. Finally, FEGEDA is used in PID controller optimization of PMSM and compared with the classical-PID and GA.

A Fast Elitism Gaussian Estimation of Distribution Algorithm and Application for PID Optimization

PubMed Central

Xu, Qingyang; Zhang, Chengjin; Zhang, Li

2014-01-01

Estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) is an intelligent optimization algorithm based on the probability statistics theory. A fast elitism Gaussian estimation of distribution algorithm (FEGEDA) is proposed in this paper. The Gaussian probability model is used to model the solution distribution. The parameters of Gaussian come from the statistical information of the best individuals by fast learning rule. A fast learning rule is used to enhance the efficiency of the algorithm, and an elitism strategy is used to maintain the convergent performance. The performances of the algorithm are examined based upon several benchmarks. In the simulations, a one-dimensional benchmark is used to visualize the optimization process and probability model learning process during the evolution, and several two-dimensional and higher dimensional benchmarks are used to testify the performance of FEGEDA. The experimental results indicate the capability of FEGEDA, especially in the higher dimensional problems, and the FEGEDA exhibits a better performance than some other algorithms and EDAs. Finally, FEGEDA is used in PID controller optimization of PMSM and compared with the classical-PID and GA. PMID:24892059

Estimation of an optimal chemotherapy utilisation rate for cancer: setting an evidence-based benchmark for quality cancer care.

PubMed

Jacob, S A; Ng, W L; Do, V

2015-02-01

There is wide variation in the proportion of newly diagnosed cancer patients who receive chemotherapy, indicating the need for a benchmark rate of chemotherapy utilisation. This study describes an evidence-based model that estimates the proportion of new cancer patients in whom chemotherapy is indicated at least once (defined as the optimal chemotherapy utilisation rate). The optimal chemotherapy utilisation rate can act as a benchmark for measuring and improving the quality of care. Models of optimal chemotherapy utilisation were constructed for each cancer site based on indications for chemotherapy identified from evidence-based treatment guidelines. Data on the proportion of patient- and tumour-related attributes for which chemotherapy was indicated were obtained, using population-based data where possible. Treatment indications and epidemiological data were merged to calculate the optimal chemotherapy utilisation rate. Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of controversial chemotherapy indications and variations in epidemiological data on our model. Chemotherapy is indicated at least once in 49.1% (95% confidence interval 48.8-49.6%) of all new cancer patients in Australia. The optimal chemotherapy utilisation rates for individual tumour sites ranged from a low of 13% in thyroid cancers to a high of 94% in myeloma. The optimal chemotherapy utilisation rate can serve as a benchmark for planning chemotherapy services on a population basis. The model can be used to evaluate service delivery by comparing the benchmark rate with patterns of care data. The overall estimate for other countries can be obtained by substituting the relevant distribution of cancer types. It can also be used to predict future chemotherapy workload and can be easily modified to take into account future changes in cancer incidence, presentation stage or chemotherapy indications. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Search-based optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Ward C.

2003-01-01

The problem of determining the minimum cost hypothetical ancestral sequences for a given cladogram is known to be NP-complete (Wang and Jiang, 1994). Traditionally, point estimations of hypothetical ancestral sequences have been used to gain heuristic, upper bounds on cladogram cost. These include procedures with such diverse approaches as non-additive optimization of multiple sequence alignment, direct optimization (Wheeler, 1996), and fixed-state character optimization (Wheeler, 1999). A method is proposed here which, by extending fixed-state character optimization, replaces the estimation process with a search. This form of optimization examines a diversity of potential state solutions for cost-efficient hypothetical ancestral sequences and can result in greatly more parsimonious cladograms. Additionally, such an approach can be applied to other NP-complete phylogenetic optimization problems such as genomic break-point analysis. c2003 The Willi Hennig Society. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Analysis of parameter estimation and optimization application of ant colony algorithm in vehicle routing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Quan-Li; Cao, Yu-Wei; Yang, Kun

2018-03-01

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is the most widely used artificial intelligence algorithm at present. This study introduced the principle and mathematical model of ACO algorithm in solving Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), and designed a vehicle routing optimization model based on ACO, then the vehicle routing optimization simulation system was developed by using c ++ programming language, and the sensitivity analyses, estimations and improvements of the three key parameters of ACO were carried out. The results indicated that the ACO algorithm designed in this paper can efficiently solve rational planning and optimization of VRP, and the different values of the key parameters have significant influence on the performance and optimization effects of the algorithm, and the improved algorithm is not easy to locally converge prematurely and has good robustness.

A LiDAR data-based camera self-calibration method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lijun; Feng, Jing; Li, Xiaolu; Chen, Jianjun

2018-07-01

To find the intrinsic parameters of a camera, a LiDAR data-based camera self-calibration method is presented here. Parameters have been estimated using particle swarm optimization (PSO), enhancing the optimal solution of a multivariate cost function. The main procedure of camera intrinsic parameter estimation has three parts, which include extraction and fine matching of interest points in the images, establishment of cost function, based on Kruppa equations and optimization of PSO using LiDAR data as the initialization input. To improve the precision of matching pairs, a new method of maximal information coefficient (MIC) and maximum asymmetry score (MAS) was used to remove false matching pairs based on the RANSAC algorithm. Highly precise matching pairs were used to calculate the fundamental matrix so that the new cost function (deduced from Kruppa equations in terms of the fundamental matrix) was more accurate. The cost function involving four intrinsic parameters was minimized by PSO for the optimal solution. To overcome the issue of optimization pushed to a local optimum, LiDAR data was used to determine the scope of initialization, based on the solution to the P4P problem for camera focal length. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method, simulations and experiments were implemented and compared with two typical methods. Simulation results indicated that the intrinsic parameters estimated by the proposed method had absolute errors less than 1.0 pixel and relative errors smaller than 0.01%. Based on ground truth obtained from a meter ruler, the distance inversion accuracy in the experiments was smaller than 1.0 cm. Experimental and simulated results demonstrated that the proposed method was highly accurate and robust.

Optimizing Estimated Loss Reduction for Active Sampling in Rank Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

active learning framework for SVM-based and boosting-based rank learning. Our approach suggests sampling based on maximizing the estimated loss differential over unlabeled data. Experimental results on two benchmark corpora show that the proposed model substantially reduces the labeling effort, and achieves superior performance rapidly with as much as 30% relative improvement over the margin-based sampling

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.« less

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis version 6.0 theory manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.« less

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

OPTIMAL EXPERIMENT DESIGN FOR MAGNETIC RESONANCE FINGERPRINTING

PubMed Central

Zhao, Bo; Haldar, Justin P.; Setsompop, Kawin; Wald, Lawrence L.

2017-01-01

Magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting is an emerging quantitative MR imaging technique that simultaneously acquires multiple tissue parameters in an efficient experiment. In this work, we present an estimation-theoretic framework to evaluate and design MR fingerprinting experiments. More specifically, we derive the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), a lower bound on the covariance of any unbiased estimator, to characterize parameter estimation for MR fingerprinting. We then formulate an optimal experiment design problem based on the CRB to choose a set of acquisition parameters (e.g., flip angles and/or repetition times) that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio efficiency of the resulting experiment. The utility of the proposed approach is validated by numerical studies. Representative results demonstrate that the optimized experiments allow for substantial reduction in the length of an MR fingerprinting acquisition, and substantial improvement in parameter estimation performance. PMID:28268369

Optimal experiment design for magnetic resonance fingerprinting.

PubMed

Bo Zhao; Haldar, Justin P; Setsompop, Kawin; Wald, Lawrence L

2016-08-01

Magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting is an emerging quantitative MR imaging technique that simultaneously acquires multiple tissue parameters in an efficient experiment. In this work, we present an estimation-theoretic framework to evaluate and design MR fingerprinting experiments. More specifically, we derive the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), a lower bound on the covariance of any unbiased estimator, to characterize parameter estimation for MR fingerprinting. We then formulate an optimal experiment design problem based on the CRB to choose a set of acquisition parameters (e.g., flip angles and/or repetition times) that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio efficiency of the resulting experiment. The utility of the proposed approach is validated by numerical studies. Representative results demonstrate that the optimized experiments allow for substantial reduction in the length of an MR fingerprinting acquisition, and substantial improvement in parameter estimation performance.

R programming for parameters estimation of geographically weighted ordinal logistic regression (GWOLR) model based on Newton Raphson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-03-01

GWOLR model used for represent relationship between dependent variable has categories and scale of category is ordinal with independent variable influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation of GWOLR model use maximum likelihood provide system of nonlinear equations and hard to be found the result in analytic resolution. By finishing it, it means determine the maximum completion, this thing associated with optimizing problem. The completion nonlinear system of equations optimize use numerical approximation, which one is Newton Raphson method. The purpose of this research is to make iteration algorithm Newton Raphson and program using R software to estimate GWOLR model. Based on the research obtained that program in R can be used to estimate the parameters of GWOLR model by forming a syntax program with command "while".

Immunity-Based Optimal Estimation Approach for a New Real Time Group Elevator Dynamic Control Application for Energy and Time Saving

PubMed Central

Baygin, Mehmet; Karakose, Mehmet

2013-01-01

Nowadays, the increasing use of group elevator control systems owing to increasing building heights makes the development of high-performance algorithms necessary in terms of time and energy saving. Although there are many studies in the literature about this topic, they are still not effective enough because they are not able to evaluate all features of system. In this paper, a new approach of immune system-based optimal estimate is studied for dynamic control of group elevator systems. The method is mainly based on estimation of optimal way by optimizing all calls with genetic, immune system and DNA computing algorithms, and it is evaluated with a fuzzy system. The system has a dynamic feature in terms of the situation of calls and the option of the most appropriate algorithm, and it also adaptively works in terms of parameters such as the number of floors and cabins. This new approach which provides both time and energy saving was carried out in real time. The experimental results comparatively demonstrate the effects of method. With dynamic and adaptive control approach in this study carried out, a significant progress on group elevator control systems has been achieved in terms of time and energy efficiency according to traditional methods. PMID:23935433

Nonlinear optimization-based device-free localization with outlier link rejection.

PubMed

Xiao, Wendong; Song, Biao; Yu, Xiting; Chen, Peiyuan

2015-04-07

Device-free localization (DFL) is an emerging wireless technique for estimating the location of target that does not have any attached electronic device. It has found extensive use in Smart City applications such as healthcare at home and hospitals, location-based services at smart spaces, city emergency response and infrastructure security. In DFL, wireless devices are used as sensors that can sense the target by transmitting and receiving wireless signals collaboratively. Many DFL systems are implemented based on received signal strength (RSS) measurements and the location of the target is estimated by detecting the changes of the RSS measurements of the wireless links. Due to the uncertainty of the wireless channel, certain links may be seriously polluted and result in erroneous detection. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinear optimization approach with outlier link rejection (NOOLR) for RSS-based DFL. It consists of three key strategies, including: (1) affected link identification by differential RSS detection; (2) outlier link rejection via geometrical positional relationship among links; (3) target location estimation by formulating and solving a nonlinear optimization problem. Experimental results demonstrate that NOOLR is robust to the fluctuation of the wireless signals with superior localization accuracy compared with the existing Radio Tomographic Imaging (RTI) approach.

Relative-Error-Covariance Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, Gerald J.; Wolff, Peter J.

1991-01-01

Two algorithms compute error covariance of difference between optimal estimates, based on data acquired during overlapping or disjoint intervals, of state of discrete linear system. Provides quantitative measure of mutual consistency or inconsistency of estimates of states. Relative-error-covariance concept applied, to determine degree of correlation between trajectories calculated from two overlapping sets of measurements and construct real-time test of consistency of state estimates based upon recently acquired data.

Optimized Kernel Entropy Components.

PubMed

Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Laparra, Valero; Jenssen, Robert; Gomez-Chova, Luis; Camps-Valls, Gustau

2017-06-01

This brief addresses two main issues of the standard kernel entropy component analysis (KECA) algorithm: the optimization of the kernel decomposition and the optimization of the Gaussian kernel parameter. KECA roughly reduces to a sorting of the importance of kernel eigenvectors by entropy instead of variance, as in the kernel principal components analysis. In this brief, we propose an extension of the KECA method, named optimized KECA (OKECA), that directly extracts the optimal features retaining most of the data entropy by means of compacting the information in very few features (often in just one or two). The proposed method produces features which have higher expressive power. In particular, it is based on the independent component analysis framework, and introduces an extra rotation to the eigen decomposition, which is optimized via gradient-ascent search. This maximum entropy preservation suggests that OKECA features are more efficient than KECA features for density estimation. In addition, a critical issue in both the methods is the selection of the kernel parameter, since it critically affects the resulting performance. Here, we analyze the most common kernel length-scale selection criteria. The results of both the methods are illustrated in different synthetic and real problems. Results show that OKECA returns projections with more expressive power than KECA, the most successful rule for estimating the kernel parameter is based on maximum likelihood, and OKECA is more robust to the selection of the length-scale parameter in kernel density estimation.

Optimally estimating the sample mean from the sample size, median, mid-range, and/or mid-quartile range.

PubMed

Luo, Dehui; Wan, Xiang; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

2018-06-01

The era of big data is coming, and evidence-based medicine is attracting increasing attention to improve decision making in medical practice via integrating evidence from well designed and conducted clinical research. Meta-analysis is a statistical technique widely used in evidence-based medicine for analytically combining the findings from independent clinical trials to provide an overall estimation of a treatment effectiveness. The sample mean and standard deviation are two commonly used statistics in meta-analysis but some trials use the median, the minimum and maximum values, or sometimes the first and third quartiles to report the results. Thus, to pool results in a consistent format, researchers need to transform those information back to the sample mean and standard deviation. In this article, we investigate the optimal estimation of the sample mean for meta-analysis from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. A major drawback in the literature is that the sample size, needless to say its importance, is either ignored or used in a stepwise but somewhat arbitrary manner, e.g. the famous method proposed by Hozo et al. We solve this issue by incorporating the sample size in a smoothly changing weight in the estimators to reach the optimal estimation. Our proposed estimators not only improve the existing ones significantly but also share the same virtue of the simplicity. The real data application indicates that our proposed estimators are capable to serve as "rules of thumb" and will be widely applied in evidence-based medicine.

Joint Transmit and Receive Filter Optimization for Sub-Nyquist Delay-Doppler Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenz, Andreas; Stein, Manuel S.; Swindlehurst, A. Lee

2018-05-01

In this article, a framework is presented for the joint optimization of the analog transmit and receive filter with respect to a parameter estimation problem. At the receiver, conventional signal processing systems restrict the two-sided bandwidth of the analog pre-filter $B$ to the rate of the analog-to-digital converter $f_s$ to comply with the well-known Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem. In contrast, here we consider a transceiver that by design violates the common paradigm $B\\leq f_s$. To this end, at the receiver, we allow for a higher pre-filter bandwidth $B>f_s$ and study the achievable parameter estimation accuracy under a fixed sampling rate when the transmit and receive filter are jointly optimized with respect to the Bayesian Cram\\'{e}r-Rao lower bound. For the case of delay-Doppler estimation, we propose to approximate the required Fisher information matrix and solve the transceiver design problem by an alternating optimization algorithm. The presented approach allows us to explore the Pareto-optimal region spanned by transmit and receive filters which are favorable under a weighted mean squared error criterion. We also discuss the computational complexity of the obtained transceiver design by visualizing the resulting ambiguity function. Finally, we verify the performance of the optimized designs by Monte-Carlo simulations of a likelihood-based estimator.

Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Nsoesie, Elaine; Mararthe, Madhav; Brownstein, John

2013-06-21

We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.

An optimization-based framework for anisotropic simplex mesh adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Masayuki; Darmofal, David L.

2012-09-01

We present a general framework for anisotropic h-adaptation of simplex meshes. Given a discretization and any element-wise, localizable error estimate, our adaptive method iterates toward a mesh that minimizes error for a given degrees of freedom. Utilizing mesh-metric duality, we consider a continuous optimization problem of the Riemannian metric tensor field that provides an anisotropic description of element sizes. First, our method performs a series of local solves to survey the behavior of the local error function. This information is then synthesized using an affine-invariant tensor manipulation framework to reconstruct an approximate gradient of the error function with respect to the metric tensor field. Finally, we perform gradient descent in the metric space to drive the mesh toward optimality. The method is first demonstrated to produce optimal anisotropic meshes minimizing the L2 projection error for a pair of canonical problems containing a singularity and a singular perturbation. The effectiveness of the framework is then demonstrated in the context of output-based adaptation for the advection-diffusion equation using a high-order discontinuous Galerkin discretization and the dual-weighted residual (DWR) error estimate. The method presented provides a unified framework for optimizing both the element size and anisotropy distribution using an a posteriori error estimate and enables efficient adaptation of anisotropic simplex meshes for high-order discretizations.

Binaural noise reduction via cue-preserving MMSE filter and adaptive-blocking-based noise PSD estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarpour, Masoumeh; Enzner, Gerald

2017-12-01

Binaural noise reduction, with applications for instance in hearing aids, has been a very significant challenge. This task relates to the optimal utilization of the available microphone signals for the estimation of the ambient noise characteristics and for the optimal filtering algorithm to separate the desired speech from the noise. The additional requirements of low computational complexity and low latency further complicate the design. A particular challenge results from the desired reconstruction of binaural speech input with spatial cue preservation. The latter essentially diminishes the utility of multiple-input/single-output filter-and-sum techniques such as beamforming. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive and effective signal processing configuration with which most of the aforementioned criteria can be met suitably. This relates especially to the requirement of efficient online adaptive processing for noise estimation and optimal filtering while preserving the binaural cues. Regarding noise estimation, we consider three different architectures: interaural (ITF), cross-relation (CR), and principal-component (PCA) target blocking. An objective comparison with two other noise PSD estimation algorithms demonstrates the superiority of the blocking-based noise estimators, especially the CR-based and ITF-based blocking architectures. Moreover, we present a new noise reduction filter based on minimum mean-square error (MMSE), which belongs to the class of common gain filters, hence being rigorous in terms of spatial cue preservation but also efficient and competitive for the acoustic noise reduction task. A formal real-time subjective listening test procedure is also developed in this paper. The proposed listening test enables a real-time assessment of the proposed computationally efficient noise reduction algorithms in a realistic acoustic environment, e.g., considering time-varying room impulse responses and the Lombard effect. The listening test outcome reveals that the signals processed by the blocking-based algorithms are significantly preferred over the noisy signal in terms of instantaneous noise attenuation. Furthermore, the listening test data analysis confirms the conclusions drawn based on the objective evaluation.

A computational framework for simultaneous estimation of muscle and joint contact forces and body motion using optimization and surrogate modeling.

PubMed

Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J

2018-04-01

Concurrent estimation of muscle activations, joint contact forces, and joint kinematics by means of gradient-based optimization of musculoskeletal models is hindered by computationally expensive and non-smooth joint contact and muscle wrapping algorithms. We present a framework that simultaneously speeds up computation and removes sources of non-smoothness from muscle force optimizations using a combination of parallelization and surrogate modeling, with special emphasis on a novel method for modeling joint contact as a surrogate model of a static analysis. The approach allows one to efficiently introduce elastic joint contact models within static and dynamic optimizations of human motion. We demonstrate the approach by performing two optimizations, one static and one dynamic, using a pelvis-leg musculoskeletal model undergoing a gait cycle. We observed convergence on the order of seconds for a static optimization time frame and on the order of minutes for an entire dynamic optimization. The presented framework may facilitate model-based efforts to predict how planned surgical or rehabilitation interventions will affect post-treatment joint and muscle function. Copyright © 2018 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The optimal dynamic immunization under a controlled heterogeneous node-based SIRS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lu-Xing; Draief, Moez; Yang, Xiaofan

2016-05-01

Dynamic immunizations, under which the state of the propagation network of electronic viruses can be changed by adjusting the control measures, are regarded as an alternative to static immunizations. This paper addresses the optimal dynamical immunization under the widely accepted SIRS assumption. First, based on a controlled heterogeneous node-based SIRS model, an optimal control problem capturing the optimal dynamical immunization is formulated. Second, the existence of an optimal dynamical immunization scheme is shown, and the corresponding optimality system is derived. Next, some numerical examples are given to show that an optimal immunization strategy can be worked out by numerically solving the optimality system, from which it is found that the network topology has a complex impact on the optimal immunization strategy. Finally, the difference between a payoff and the minimum payoff is estimated in terms of the deviation of the corresponding immunization strategy from the optimal immunization strategy. The proposed optimal immunization scheme is justified, because it can achieve a low level of infections at a low cost.

Optimal design and use of retry in fault tolerant real-time computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Shin, K. G.

1983-01-01

A new method to determin an optimal retry policy and for use in retry of fault characterization is presented. An optimal retry policy for a given fault characteristic, which determines the maximum allowable retry durations to minimize the total task completion time was derived. The combined fault characterization and retry decision, in which the characteristics of fault are estimated simultaneously with the determination of the optimal retry policy were carried out. Two solution approaches were developed, one based on the point estimation and the other on the Bayes sequential decision. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the first approach, and the backward induction for testing hypotheses in the second approach. Numerical examples in which all the durations associated with faults have monotone hazard functions, e.g., exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions are presented. These are standard distributions commonly used for modeling analysis and faults.

An Improved Swarm Optimization for Parameter Estimation and Biological Model Selection

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

2013-01-01

One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This study is hoped to provide a new insight in developing more accurate and reliable biological models based on limited and low quality experimental data. PMID:23593445

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

[Simulation of vegetation indices optimizing under retrieval of vegetation biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model].

PubMed

Wu, Ling; Liu, Xiang-Nan; Zhou, Bo-Tian; Liu, Chuan-Hao; Li, Lu-Feng

2012-12-01

This study analyzed the sensitivities of three vegetation biochemical parameters [chlorophyll content (Cab), leaf water content (Cw), and leaf area index (LAI)] to the changes of canopy reflectance, with the effects of each parameter on the wavelength regions of canopy reflectance considered, and selected three vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function. Then, the Cab, Cw, and LAI were estimated, based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and PROSPECT + SAIL model. The results showed that retrieval efficiency with vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function was better than that with all spectral reflectance. The correlation coefficients (R2) between the measured and estimated values of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 90.8%, 95.7%, and 99.7%, and the root mean square errors of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 4.73 microg x cm(-2), 0.001 g x cm(-2), and 0.08, respectively. It was suggested that to adopt vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function could effectively improve the efficiency and precision of the retrieval of biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model.

SURE Estimates for a Heteroscedastic Hierarchical Model

PubMed Central

Xie, Xianchao; Kou, S. C.; Brown, Lawrence D.

2014-01-01

Hierarchical models are extensively studied and widely used in statistics and many other scientific areas. They provide an effective tool for combining information from similar resources and achieving partial pooling of inference. Since the seminal work by James and Stein (1961) and Stein (1962), shrinkage estimation has become one major focus for hierarchical models. For the homoscedastic normal model, it is well known that shrinkage estimators, especially the James-Stein estimator, have good risk properties. The heteroscedastic model, though more appropriate for practical applications, is less well studied, and it is unclear what types of shrinkage estimators are superior in terms of the risk. We propose in this paper a class of shrinkage estimators based on Stein’s unbiased estimate of risk (SURE). We study asymptotic properties of various common estimators as the number of means to be estimated grows (p → ∞). We establish the asymptotic optimality property for the SURE estimators. We then extend our construction to create a class of semi-parametric shrinkage estimators and establish corresponding asymptotic optimality results. We emphasize that though the form of our SURE estimators is partially obtained through a normal model at the sampling level, their optimality properties do not heavily depend on such distributional assumptions. We apply the methods to two real data sets and obtain encouraging results. PMID:25301976

Construction of joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) surfaces and manifolds.

PubMed

Bantis, Leonidas E; Nakas, Christos T; Reiser, Benjamin; Myall, Daniel; Dalrymple-Alford, John C

2017-06-01

The three-class approach is used for progressive disorders when clinicians and researchers want to diagnose or classify subjects as members of one of three ordered categories based on a continuous diagnostic marker. The decision thresholds or optimal cut-off points required for this classification are often chosen to maximize the generalized Youden index (Nakas et al., Stat Med 2013; 32: 995-1003). The effectiveness of these chosen cut-off points can be evaluated by estimating their corresponding true class fractions and their associated confidence regions. Recently, in the two-class case, parametric and non-parametric methods were investigated for the construction of confidence regions for the pair of the Youden-index-based optimal sensitivity and specificity fractions that can take into account the correlation introduced between sensitivity and specificity when the optimal cut-off point is estimated from the data (Bantis et al., Biomet 2014; 70: 212-223). A parametric approach based on the Box-Cox transformation to normality often works well while for markers having more complex distributions a non-parametric procedure using logspline density estimation can be used instead. The true class fractions that correspond to the optimal cut-off points estimated by the generalized Youden index are correlated similarly to the two-class case. In this article, we generalize these methods to the three- and to the general k-class case which involves the classification of subjects into three or more ordered categories, where ROC surface or ROC manifold methodology, respectively, is typically employed for the evaluation of the discriminatory capacity of a diagnostic marker. We obtain three- and multi-dimensional joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions. We illustrate this with an application to the Trail Making Test Part A that has been used to characterize cognitive impairment in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Evaluation of the MV (CAPON) Coherent Doppler Lidar Velocity Estimator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lottman, B.; Frehlich, R.

1997-01-01

The performance of the CAPON velocity estimator for coherent Doppler lidar is determined for typical space-based and ground-based parameter regimes. Optimal input parameters for the algorithm were determined for each regime. For weak signals, performance is described by the standard deviation of the good estimates and the fraction of outliers. For strong signals, the fraction of outliers is zero. Numerical effort was also determined.

Optimization of response surface and neural network models in conjugation with desirability function for estimation of nutritional needs of methionine, lysine, and threonine in broiler chickens.

PubMed

Mehri, Mehran

2014-07-01

The optimization algorithm of a model may have significant effects on the final optimal values of nutrient requirements in poultry enterprises. In poultry nutrition, the optimal values of dietary essential nutrients are very important for feed formulation to optimize profit through minimizing feed cost and maximizing bird performance. This study was conducted to introduce a novel multi-objective algorithm, desirability function, for optimization the bird response models based on response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN). The growth databases on the central composite design (CCD) were used to construct the RSM and ANN models and optimal values for 3 essential amino acids including lysine, methionine, and threonine in broiler chicks have been reevaluated using the desirable function in both analytical approaches from 3 to 16 d of age. Multi-objective optimization results showed that the most desirable function was obtained for ANN-based model (D = 0.99) where the optimal levels of digestible lysine (dLys), digestible methionine (dMet), and digestible threonine (dThr) for maximum desirability were 13.2, 5.0, and 8.3 g/kg of diet, respectively. However, the optimal levels of dLys, dMet, and dThr in the RSM-based model were estimated at 11.2, 5.4, and 7.6 g/kg of diet, respectively. This research documented that the application of ANN in the broiler chicken model along with a multi-objective optimization algorithm such as desirability function could be a useful tool for optimization of dietary amino acids in fractional factorial experiments, in which the use of the global desirability function may be able to overcome the underestimations of dietary amino acids resulting from the RSM model. © 2014 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Model Based Optimal Control, Estimation, and Validation of Lithium-Ion Batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Hector Eduardo

This dissertation focuses on developing and experimentally validating model based control techniques to enhance the operation of lithium ion batteries, safely. An overview of the contributions to address the challenges that arise are provided below. Chapter 1: This chapter provides an introduction to battery fundamentals, models, and control and estimation techniques. Additionally, it provides motivation for the contributions of this dissertation. Chapter 2: This chapter examines reference governor (RG) methods for satisfying state constraints in Li-ion batteries. Mathematically, these constraints are formulated from a first principles electrochemical model. Consequently, the constraints explicitly model specific degradation mechanisms, such as lithium plating, lithium depletion, and overheating. This contrasts with the present paradigm of limiting measured voltage, current, and/or temperature. The critical challenges, however, are that (i) the electrochemical states evolve according to a system of nonlinear partial differential equations, and (ii) the states are not physically measurable. Assuming available state and parameter estimates, this chapter develops RGs for electrochemical battery models. The results demonstrate how electrochemical model state information can be utilized to ensure safe operation, while simultaneously enhancing energy capacity, power, and charge speeds in Li-ion batteries. Chapter 3: Complex multi-partial differential equation (PDE) electrochemical battery models are characterized by parameters that are often difficult to measure or identify. This parametric uncertainty influences the state estimates of electrochemical model-based observers for applications such as state-of-charge (SOC) estimation. This chapter develops two sensitivity-based interval observers that map bounded parameter uncertainty to state estimation intervals, within the context of electrochemical PDE models and SOC estimation. Theoretically, this chapter extends the notion of interval observers to PDE models using a sensitivity-based approach. Practically, this chapter quantifies the sensitivity of battery state estimates to parameter variations, enabling robust battery management schemes. The effectiveness of the proposed sensitivity-based interval observers is verified via a numerical study for the range of uncertain parameters. Chapter 4: This chapter seeks to derive insight on battery charging control using electrochemistry models. Directly using full order complex multi-partial differential equation (PDE) electrochemical battery models is difficult and sometimes impossible to implement. This chapter develops an approach for obtaining optimal charge control schemes, while ensuring safety through constraint satisfaction. An optimal charge control problem is mathematically formulated via a coupled reduced order electrochemical-thermal model which conserves key electrochemical and thermal state information. The Legendre-Gauss-Radau (LGR) pseudo-spectral method with adaptive multi-mesh-interval collocation is employed to solve the resulting nonlinear multi-state optimal control problem. Minimum time charge protocols are analyzed in detail subject to solid and electrolyte phase concentration constraints, as well as temperature constraints. The optimization scheme is examined using different input current bounds, and an insight on battery design for fast charging is provided. Experimental results are provided to compare the tradeoffs between an electrochemical-thermal model based optimal charge protocol and a traditional charge protocol. Chapter 5: Fast and safe charging protocols are crucial for enhancing the practicality of batteries, especially for mobile applications such as smartphones and electric vehicles. This chapter proposes an innovative approach to devising optimally health-conscious fast-safe charge protocols. A multi-objective optimal control problem is mathematically formulated via a coupled electro-thermal-aging battery model, where electrical and aging sub-models depend upon the core temperature captured by a two-state thermal sub-model. The Legendre-Gauss-Radau (LGR) pseudo-spectral method with adaptive multi-mesh-interval collocation is employed to solve the resulting highly nonlinear six-state optimal control problem. Charge time and health degradation are therefore optimally traded off, subject to both electrical and thermal constraints. Minimum-time, minimum-aging, and balanced charge scenarios are examined in detail. Sensitivities to the upper voltage bound, ambient temperature, and cooling convection resistance are investigated as well. Experimental results are provided to compare the tradeoffs between a balanced and traditional charge protocol. Chapter 6: This chapter provides concluding remarks on the findings of this dissertation and a discussion of future work.

An Optimization-Based State Estimatioin Framework for Large-Scale Natural Gas Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jalving, Jordan; Zavala, Victor M.

We propose an optimization-based state estimation framework to track internal spacetime flow and pressure profiles of natural gas networks during dynamic transients. We find that the estimation problem is ill-posed (because of the infinite-dimensional nature of the states) and that this leads to instability of the estimator when short estimation horizons are used. To circumvent this issue, we propose moving horizon strategies that incorporate prior information. In particular, we propose a strategy that initializes the prior using steady-state information and compare its performance against a strategy that does not initialize the prior. We find that both strategies are capable ofmore » tracking the state profiles but we also find that superior performance is obtained with steady-state prior initialization. We also find that, under the proposed framework, pressure sensor information at junctions is sufficient to track the state profiles. We also derive approximate transport models and show that some of these can be used to achieve significant computational speed-ups without sacrificing estimation performance. We show that the estimator can be easily implemented in the graph-based modeling framework Plasmo.jl and use a multipipeline network study to demonstrate the developments.« less

Optimal flexible sample size design with robust power.

PubMed

Zhang, Lanju; Cui, Lu; Yang, Bo

2016-08-30

It is well recognized that sample size determination is challenging because of the uncertainty on the treatment effect size. Several remedies are available in the literature. Group sequential designs start with a sample size based on a conservative (smaller) effect size and allow early stop at interim looks. Sample size re-estimation designs start with a sample size based on an optimistic (larger) effect size and allow sample size increase if the observed effect size is smaller than planned. Different opinions favoring one type over the other exist. We propose an optimal approach using an appropriate optimality criterion to select the best design among all the candidate designs. Our results show that (1) for the same type of designs, for example, group sequential designs, there is room for significant improvement through our optimization approach; (2) optimal promising zone designs appear to have no advantages over optimal group sequential designs; and (3) optimal designs with sample size re-estimation deliver the best adaptive performance. We conclude that to deal with the challenge of sample size determination due to effect size uncertainty, an optimal approach can help to select the best design that provides most robust power across the effect size range of interest. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An improved principal component analysis based region matching method for fringe direction estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, A.; Quan, C.

2018-04-01

The principal component analysis (PCA) and region matching combined method is effective for fringe direction estimation. However, its mask construction algorithm for region matching fails in some circumstances, and the algorithm for conversion of orientation to direction in mask areas is computationally-heavy and non-optimized. We propose an improved PCA based region matching method for the fringe direction estimation, which includes an improved and robust mask construction scheme, and a fast and optimized orientation-direction conversion algorithm for the mask areas. Along with the estimated fringe direction map, filtered fringe pattern by automatic selective reconstruction modification and enhanced fast empirical mode decomposition (ASRm-EFEMD) is used for Hilbert spiral transform (HST) to demodulate the phase. Subsequently, windowed Fourier ridge (WFR) method is used for the refinement of the phase. The robustness and effectiveness of proposed method are demonstrated by both simulated and experimental fringe patterns.

Sampling design optimization for spatial functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.

1984-01-01

A new procedure is presented for minimizing the sampling requirements necessary to estimate a mappable spatial function at a specified level of accuracy. The technique is based on universal kriging, an estimation method within the theory of regionalized variables. Neither actual implementation of the sampling nor universal kriging estimations are necessary to make an optimal design. The average standard error and maximum standard error of estimation over the sampling domain are used as global indices of sampling efficiency. The procedure optimally selects those parameters controlling the magnitude of the indices, including the density and spatial pattern of the sample elements and the number of nearest sample elements used in the estimation. As an illustration, the network of observation wells used to monitor the water table in the Equus Beds of Kansas is analyzed and an improved sampling pattern suggested. This example demonstrates the practical utility of the procedure, which can be applied equally well to other spatial sampling problems, as the procedure is not limited by the nature of the spatial function. ?? 1984 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

A multipopulation PSO based memetic algorithm for permutation flow shop scheduling.

PubMed

Liu, Ruochen; Ma, Chenlin; Ma, Wenping; Li, Yangyang

2013-01-01

The permutation flow shop scheduling problem (PFSSP) is part of production scheduling, which belongs to the hardest combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, a multipopulation particle swarm optimization (PSO) based memetic algorithm (MPSOMA) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed algorithm, the whole particle swarm population is divided into three subpopulations in which each particle evolves itself by the standard PSO and then updates each subpopulation by using different local search schemes such as variable neighborhood search (VNS) and individual improvement scheme (IIS). Then, the best particle of each subpopulation is selected to construct a probabilistic model by using estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) and three particles are sampled from the probabilistic model to update the worst individual in each subpopulation. The best particle in the entire particle swarm is used to update the global optimal solution. The proposed MPSOMA is compared with two recently proposed algorithms, namely, PSO based memetic algorithm (PSOMA) and hybrid particle swarm optimization with estimation of distribution algorithm (PSOEDA), on 29 well-known PFFSPs taken from OR-library, and the experimental results show that it is an effective approach for the PFFSP.

Fast and robust estimation of spectro-temporal receptive fields using stochastic approximations.

PubMed

Meyer, Arne F; Diepenbrock, Jan-Philipp; Ohl, Frank W; Anemüller, Jörn

2015-05-15

The receptive field (RF) represents the signal preferences of sensory neurons and is the primary analysis method for understanding sensory coding. While it is essential to estimate a neuron's RF, finding numerical solutions to increasingly complex RF models can become computationally intensive, in particular for high-dimensional stimuli or when many neurons are involved. Here we propose an optimization scheme based on stochastic approximations that facilitate this task. The basic idea is to derive solutions on a random subset rather than computing the full solution on the available data set. To test this, we applied different optimization schemes based on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to both the generalized linear model (GLM) and a recently developed classification-based RF estimation approach. Using simulated and recorded responses, we demonstrate that RF parameter optimization based on state-of-the-art SGD algorithms produces robust estimates of the spectro-temporal receptive field (STRF). Results on recordings from the auditory midbrain demonstrate that stochastic approximations preserve both predictive power and tuning properties of STRFs. A correlation of 0.93 with the STRF derived from the full solution may be obtained in less than 10% of the full solution's estimation time. We also present an on-line algorithm that allows simultaneous monitoring of STRF properties of more than 30 neurons on a single computer. The proposed approach may not only prove helpful for large-scale recordings but also provides a more comprehensive characterization of neural tuning in experiments than standard tuning curves. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the estimation algorithm used in adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Espana, Martin D.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1993-01-01

The performance seeking control algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The performance seeking control algorithm uses a nominal model of the propulsion system and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated engine deviation parameters may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a necessary impact on the overall performance seeking control scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. The effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the performance seeking control algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and engine deviation parameters stems from an observability study; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated engine deviation parameters represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

Coherence in quantum estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorda, Paolo; Allegra, Michele

2018-01-01

The geometry of quantum states provides a unifying framework for estimation processes based on quantum probes, and it establishes the ultimate bounds of the achievable precision. We show a relation between the statistical distance between infinitesimally close quantum states and the second order variation of the coherence of the optimal measurement basis with respect to the state of the probe. In quantum phase estimation protocols, this leads to propose coherence as the relevant resource that one has to engineer and control to optimize the estimation precision. Furthermore, the main object of the theory i.e. the symmetric logarithmic derivative, in many cases allows one to identify a proper factorization of the whole Hilbert space in two subsystems. The factorization allows one to discuss the role of coherence versus correlations in estimation protocols; to show how certain estimation processes can be completely or effectively described within a single-qubit subsystem; and to derive lower bounds for the scaling of the estimation precision with the number of probes used. We illustrate how the framework works for both noiseless and noisy estimation procedures, in particular those based on multi-qubit GHZ-states. Finally we succinctly analyze estimation protocols based on zero-temperature critical behavior. We identify the coherence that is at the heart of their efficiency, and we show how it exhibits the non-analyticities and scaling behavior proper of a large class of quantum phase transitions.

The Effect of Framing on Surrogate Optimism Bias: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Patel, Dev; Cohen, Elan D.; Barnato, Amber E.

2016-01-01

Purpose To explore the effect of emotion priming and physician communication behaviors on optimism bias. Materials and Methods We conducted a 5 × 2 between-subject randomized factorial experiment using a web-based interactive video designed to simulate a family meeting for a critically ill spouse/parent. Eligibility included age ≥ 35 and self-identifying as the surrogate for a spouse/parent. The primary outcome was the surrogate's election of code status. We defined optimism bias as the surrogate's estimate of prognosis with CPR > their recollection of the physician's estimate. Results 256/373 respondents (69%) logged-in and were randomized and 220 (86%) had non-missing data for prognosis. 67/220 (30%) overall, and 56/173 (32%) of those with an accurate recollection of the physician's estimate had optimism bias. Optimism bias correlated with choosing CPR (p<.001). Emotion priming (p=.397), physician attention to emotion (p=.537), and framing of CPR as the social norm (p=.884) did not affect optimism bias. Framing the decision as the patient's vs. the surrogate's (25% vs. 36%, p=.066) and describing the alternative to CPR as “allow natural death” instead of “do not resuscitate” (25% vs. 37%, p =.035) decreased optimism bias. Conclusions Framing of CPR choice during code status conversations may influence surrogates’ optimism bias. PMID:26796950

Using pilot data to size a two-arm randomized trial to find a nearly optimal personalized treatment strategy.

PubMed

Laber, Eric B; Zhao, Ying-Qi; Regh, Todd; Davidian, Marie; Tsiatis, Anastasios; Stanford, Joseph B; Zeng, Donglin; Song, Rui; Kosorok, Michael R

2016-04-15

A personalized treatment strategy formalizes evidence-based treatment selection by mapping patient information to a recommended treatment. Personalized treatment strategies can produce better patient outcomes while reducing cost and treatment burden. Thus, among clinical and intervention scientists, there is a growing interest in conducting randomized clinical trials when one of the primary aims is estimation of a personalized treatment strategy. However, at present, there are no appropriate sample size formulae to assist in the design of such a trial. Furthermore, because the sampling distribution of the estimated outcome under an estimated optimal treatment strategy can be highly sensitive to small perturbations in the underlying generative model, sample size calculations based on standard (uncorrected) asymptotic approximations or computer simulations may not be reliable. We offer a simple and robust method for powering a single stage, two-armed randomized clinical trial when the primary aim is estimating the optimal single stage personalized treatment strategy. The proposed method is based on inverting a plugin projection confidence interval and is thereby regular and robust to small perturbations of the underlying generative model. The proposed method requires elicitation of two clinically meaningful parameters from clinical scientists and uses data from a small pilot study to estimate nuisance parameters, which are not easily elicited. The method performs well in simulated experiments and is illustrated using data from a pilot study of time to conception and fertility awareness. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Approximation theory for LQG (Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian) optimal control of flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, J. S.; Adamian, A.

1988-01-01

An approximation theory is presented for the LQG (Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian) optimal control problem for flexible structures whose distributed models have bounded input and output operators. The main purpose of the theory is to guide the design of finite dimensional compensators that approximate closely the optimal compensator. The optimal LQG problem separates into an optimal linear-quadratic regulator problem and an optimal state estimation problem. The solution of the former problem lies in the solution to an infinite dimensional Riccati operator equation. The approximation scheme approximates the infinite dimensional LQG problem with a sequence of finite dimensional LQG problems defined for a sequence of finite dimensional, usually finite element or modal, approximations of the distributed model of the structure. Two Riccati matrix equations determine the solution to each approximating problem. The finite dimensional equations for numerical approximation are developed, including formulas for converting matrix control and estimator gains to their functional representation to allow comparison of gains based on different orders of approximation. Convergence of the approximating control and estimator gains and of the corresponding finite dimensional compensators is studied. Also, convergence and stability of the closed-loop systems produced with the finite dimensional compensators are discussed. The convergence theory is based on the convergence of the solutions of the finite dimensional Riccati equations to the solutions of the infinite dimensional Riccati equations. A numerical example with a flexible beam, a rotating rigid body, and a lumped mass is given.

Investigation to realize a computationally efficient implementation of the high-order instantaneous-moments-based fringe analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rajshekhar, Gannavarpu; Rastogi, Pramod

2010-06-01

Recently, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM)-operator-based method was proposed for accurate phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry. The method relies on piece-wise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients from the HIM operator using single-tone frequency estimation. The work presents a comparative analysis of the performance of different single-tone frequency estimation techniques, like Fourier transform followed by optimization, estimation of signal parameters by rotational invariance technique (ESPRIT), multiple signal classification (MUSIC), and iterative frequency estimation by interpolation on Fourier coefficients (IFEIF) in HIM-operator-based methods for phase estimation. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the potential of the IFEIF technique with respect to computational efficiency and estimation accuracy.

Reliability-Based Control Design for Uncertain Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a robust control design methodology for systems with probabilistic parametric uncertainty. Control design is carried out by solving a reliability-based multi-objective optimization problem where the probability of violating design requirements is minimized. Simultaneously, failure domains are optimally enlarged to enable global improvements in the closed-loop performance. To enable an efficient numerical implementation, a hybrid approach for estimating reliability metrics is developed. This approach, which integrates deterministic sampling and asymptotic approximations, greatly reduces the numerical burden associated with complex probabilistic computations without compromising the accuracy of the results. Examples using output-feedback and full-state feedback with state estimation are used to demonstrate the ideas proposed.

Simulation-Based Joint Estimation of Body Deformation and Elasticity Parameters for Medical Image Analysis

PubMed Central

Foskey, Mark; Niethammer, Marc; Krajcevski, Pavel; Lin, Ming C.

2014-01-01

Estimation of tissue stiffness is an important means of noninvasive cancer detection. Existing elasticity reconstruction methods usually depend on a dense displacement field (inferred from ultrasound or MR images) and known external forces. Many imaging modalities, however, cannot provide details within an organ and therefore cannot provide such a displacement field. Furthermore, force exertion and measurement can be difficult for some internal organs, making boundary forces another missing parameter. We propose a general method for estimating elasticity and boundary forces automatically using an iterative optimization framework, given the desired (target) output surface. During the optimization, the input model is deformed by the simulator, and an objective function based on the distance between the deformed surface and the target surface is minimized numerically. The optimization framework does not depend on a particular simulation method and is therefore suitable for different physical models. We show a positive correlation between clinical prostate cancer stage (a clinical measure of severity) and the recovered elasticity of the organ. Since the surface correspondence is established, our method also provides a non-rigid image registration, where the quality of the deformation fields is guaranteed, as they are computed using a physics-based simulation. PMID:22893381

Streamflow Prediction based on Chaos Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Wang, X.; Babovic, V. M.

2015-12-01

Chaos theory is a popular method in hydrologic time series prediction. Local model (LM) based on this theory utilizes time-delay embedding to reconstruct the phase-space diagram. For this method, its efficacy is dependent on the embedding parameters, i.e. embedding dimension, time lag, and nearest neighbor number. The optimal estimation of these parameters is thus critical to the application of Local model. However, these embedding parameters are conventionally estimated using Average Mutual Information (AMI) and False Nearest Neighbors (FNN) separately. This may leads to local optimization and thus has limitation to its prediction accuracy. Considering about these limitation, this paper applies a local model combined with simulated annealing (SA) to find the global optimization of embedding parameters. It is also compared with another global optimization approach of Genetic Algorithm (GA). These proposed hybrid methods are applied in daily and monthly streamflow time series for examination. The results show that global optimization can contribute to the local model to provide more accurate prediction results compared with local optimization. The LM combined with SA shows more advantages in terms of its computational efficiency. The proposed scheme here can also be applied to other fields such as prediction of hydro-climatic time series, error correction, etc.

Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

PubMed

Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

2009-09-01

This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

Application of an Optimal Tuner Selection Approach for On-Board Self-Tuning Engine Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Armstrong, Jeffrey B.; Garg, Sanjay

2012-01-01

An enhanced design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented in this paper. It specific-ally addresses the under-determined estimation problem, in which there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. This work builds upon an existing technique for systematically selecting a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. While the existing technique was optimized for open-loop engine operation at a fixed design point, in this paper an alternative formulation is presented that enables the technique to be optimized for an engine operating under closed-loop control throughout the flight envelope. The theoretical Kalman filter mean squared estimation error at a steady-state closed-loop operating point is derived, and the tuner selection approach applied to minimize this error is discussed. A technique for constructing a globally optimal tuning parameter vector, which enables full-envelope application of the technology, is also presented, along with design steps for adjusting the dynamic response of the Kalman filter state estimates. Results from the application of the technique to linear and nonlinear aircraft engine simulations are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line Kalman filter estimation accuracy.

On Inertial Body Tracking in the Presence of Model Calibration Errors

PubMed Central

Miezal, Markus; Taetz, Bertram; Bleser, Gabriele

2016-01-01

In inertial body tracking, the human body is commonly represented as a biomechanical model consisting of rigid segments with known lengths and connecting joints. The model state is then estimated via sensor fusion methods based on data from attached inertial measurement units (IMUs). This requires the relative poses of the IMUs w.r.t. the segments—the IMU-to-segment calibrations, subsequently called I2S calibrations—to be known. Since calibration methods based on static poses, movements and manual measurements are still the most widely used, potentially large human-induced calibration errors have to be expected. This work compares three newly developed/adapted extended Kalman filter (EKF) and optimization-based sensor fusion methods with an existing EKF-based method w.r.t. their segment orientation estimation accuracy in the presence of model calibration errors with and without using magnetometer information. While the existing EKF-based method uses a segment-centered kinematic chain biomechanical model and a constant angular acceleration motion model, the newly developed/adapted methods are all based on a free segments model, where each segment is represented with six degrees of freedom in the global frame. Moreover, these methods differ in the assumed motion model (constant angular acceleration, constant angular velocity, inertial data as control input), the state representation (segment-centered, IMU-centered) and the estimation method (EKF, sliding window optimization). In addition to the free segments representation, the optimization-based method also represents each IMU with six degrees of freedom in the global frame. In the evaluation on simulated and real data from a three segment model (an arm), the optimization-based method showed the smallest mean errors, standard deviations and maximum errors throughout all tests. It also showed the lowest dependency on magnetometer information and motion agility. Moreover, it was insensitive w.r.t. I2S position and segment length errors in the tested ranges. Errors in the I2S orientations were, however, linearly propagated into the estimated segment orientations. In the absence of magnetic disturbances, severe model calibration errors and fast motion changes, the newly developed IMU centered EKF-based method yielded comparable results with lower computational complexity. PMID:27455266

Disk storage management for LHCb based on Data Popularity estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hushchyn, Mikhail; Charpentier, Philippe; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey

2015-12-01

This paper presents an algorithm providing recommendations for optimizing the LHCb data storage. The LHCb data storage system is a hybrid system. All datasets are kept as archives on magnetic tapes. The most popular datasets are kept on disks. The algorithm takes the dataset usage history and metadata (size, type, configuration etc.) to generate a recommendation report. This article presents how we use machine learning algorithms to predict future data popularity. Using these predictions it is possible to estimate which datasets should be removed from disk. We use regression algorithms and time series analysis to find the optimal number of replicas for datasets that are kept on disk. Based on the data popularity and the number of replicas optimization, the algorithm minimizes a loss function to find the optimal data distribution. The loss function represents all requirements for data distribution in the data storage system. We demonstrate how our algorithm helps to save disk space and to reduce waiting times for jobs using this data.

FPGA based hardware optimized implementation of signal processing system for LFM pulsed radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azim, Noor ul; Jun, Wang

2016-11-01

Signal processing is one of the main parts of any radar system. Different signal processing algorithms are used to extract information about different parameters like range, speed, direction etc, of a target in the field of radar communication. This paper presents LFM (Linear Frequency Modulation) pulsed radar signal processing algorithms which are used to improve target detection, range resolution and to estimate the speed of a target. Firstly, these algorithms are simulated in MATLAB to verify the concept and theory. After the conceptual verification in MATLAB, the simulation is converted into implementation on hardware using Xilinx FPGA. Chosen FPGA is Xilinx Virtex-6 (XC6LVX75T). For hardware implementation pipeline optimization is adopted and also other factors are considered for resources optimization in the process of implementation. Focusing algorithms in this work for improving target detection, range resolution and speed estimation are hardware optimized fast convolution processing based pulse compression and pulse Doppler processing.

Numerically accurate computational techniques for optimal estimator analyses of multi-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Lukas; Kleinheinz, Konstantin; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Pitsch, Heinz; Mueller, Michael E.

2018-05-01

Modelling unclosed terms in partial differential equations typically involves two steps: First, a set of known quantities needs to be specified as input parameters for a model, and second, a specific functional form needs to be defined to model the unclosed terms by the input parameters. Both steps involve a certain modelling error, with the former known as the irreducible error and the latter referred to as the functional error. Typically, only the total modelling error, which is the sum of functional and irreducible error, is assessed, but the concept of the optimal estimator enables the separate analysis of the total and the irreducible errors, yielding a systematic modelling error decomposition. In this work, attention is paid to the techniques themselves required for the practical computation of irreducible errors. Typically, histograms are used for optimal estimator analyses, but this technique is found to add a non-negligible spurious contribution to the irreducible error if models with multiple input parameters are assessed. Thus, the error decomposition of an optimal estimator analysis becomes inaccurate, and misleading conclusions concerning modelling errors may be drawn. In this work, numerically accurate techniques for optimal estimator analyses are identified and a suitable evaluation of irreducible errors is presented. Four different computational techniques are considered: a histogram technique, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and an additive model based on a kernel method. For multiple input parameter models, only artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines are found to yield satisfactorily accurate results. Beyond a certain number of input parameters, the assessment of models in an optimal estimator analysis even becomes practically infeasible if histograms are used. The optimal estimator analysis in this paper is applied to modelling the filtered soot intermittency in large eddy simulations using a dataset of a direct numerical simulation of a non-premixed sooting turbulent flame.

Effects of tree-to-tree variations on sap flux-based transpiration estimates in a forested watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kume, Tomonori; Tsuruta, Kenji; Komatsu, Hikaru; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Higashi, Naoko; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2010-05-01

To estimate forest stand-scale water use, we assessed how sample sizes affect confidence of stand-scale transpiration (E) estimates calculated from sap flux (Fd) and sapwood area (AS_tree) measurements of individual trees. In a Japanese cypress plantation, we measured Fd and AS_tree in all trees (n = 58) within a 20 × 20 m study plot, which was divided into four 10 × 10 subplots. We calculated E from stand AS_tree (AS_stand) and mean stand Fd (JS) values. Using Monte Carlo analyses, we examined potential errors associated with sample sizes in E, AS_stand, and JS by using the original AS_tree and Fd data sets. Consequently, we defined optimal sample sizes of 10 and 15 for AS_stand and JS estimates, respectively, in the 20 × 20 m plot. Sample sizes greater than the optimal sample sizes did not decrease potential errors. The optimal sample sizes for JS changed according to plot size (e.g., 10 × 10 m and 10 × 20 m), while the optimal sample sizes for AS_stand did not. As well, the optimal sample sizes for JS did not change in different vapor pressure deficit conditions. In terms of E estimates, these results suggest that the tree-to-tree variations in Fd vary among different plots, and that plot size to capture tree-to-tree variations in Fd is an important factor. This study also discusses planning balanced sampling designs to extrapolate stand-scale estimates to catchment-scale estimates.

Reader reaction to "a robust method for estimating optimal treatment regimes" by Zhang et al. (2012).

PubMed

Taylor, Jeremy M G; Cheng, Wenting; Foster, Jared C

2015-03-01

A recent article (Zhang et al., 2012, Biometrics 168, 1010-1018) compares regression based and inverse probability based methods of estimating an optimal treatment regime and shows for a small number of covariates that inverse probability weighted methods are more robust to model misspecification than regression methods. We demonstrate that using models that fit the data better reduces the concern about non-robustness for the regression methods. We extend the simulation study of Zhang et al. (2012, Biometrics 168, 1010-1018), also considering the situation of a larger number of covariates, and show that incorporating random forests into both regression and inverse probability weighted based methods improves their properties. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

A prototype upper-atmospheric data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation: 2. Numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akmaev, R. a.

1999-04-01

In Part 1 of this work ([Akmaev, 1999]), an overview of the theory of optimal interpolation (OI) ([Gandin, 1963]) and related techniques of data assimilation based on linear optimal estimation ([Liebelt, 1967]; [Catlin, 1989]; [Mendel, 1995]) is presented. The approach implies the use in data analysis of additional statistical information in the form of statistical moments, e.g., the mean and covariance (correlation). The a priori statistical characteristics, if available, make it possible to constrain expected errors and obtain optimal in some sense estimates of the true state from a set of observations in a given domain in space and/or time. The primary objective of OI is to provide estimates away from the observations, i.e., to fill in data voids in the domain under consideration. Additionally, OI performs smoothing suppressing the noise, i.e., the spectral components that are presumably not present in the true signal. Usually, the criterion of optimality is minimum variance of the expected errors and the whole approach may be considered constrained least squares or least squares with a priori information. Obviously, data assimilation techniques capable of incorporating any additional information are potentially superior to techniques that have no access to such information as, for example, the conventional least squares (e.g., [Liebelt, 1967]; [Weisberg, 1985]; [Press et al., 1992]; [Mendel, 1995]).

Improved dose-volume histogram estimates for radiopharmaceutical therapy by optimizing quantitative SPECT reconstruction parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Lishui; Hobbs, Robert F.; Segars, Paul W.; Sgouros, George; Frey, Eric C.

2013-06-01

In radiopharmaceutical therapy, an understanding of the dose distribution in normal and target tissues is important for optimizing treatment. Three-dimensional (3D) dosimetry takes into account patient anatomy and the nonuniform uptake of radiopharmaceuticals in tissues. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) provide a useful summary representation of the 3D dose distribution and have been widely used for external beam treatment planning. Reliable 3D dosimetry requires an accurate 3D radioactivity distribution as the input. However, activity distribution estimates from SPECT are corrupted by noise and partial volume effects (PVEs). In this work, we systematically investigated OS-EM based quantitative SPECT (QSPECT) image reconstruction in terms of its effect on DVHs estimates. A modified 3D NURBS-based Cardiac-Torso (NCAT) phantom that incorporated a non-uniform kidney model and clinically realistic organ activities and biokinetics was used. Projections were generated using a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation; noise effects were studied using 50 noise realizations with clinical count levels. Activity images were reconstructed using QSPECT with compensation for attenuation, scatter and collimator-detector response (CDR). Dose rate distributions were estimated by convolution of the activity image with a voxel S kernel. Cumulative DVHs were calculated from the phantom and QSPECT images and compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. We found that noise, PVEs, and ringing artifacts due to CDR compensation all degraded histogram estimates. Low-pass filtering and early termination of the iterative process were needed to reduce the effects of noise and ringing artifacts on DVHs, but resulted in increased degradations due to PVEs. Large objects with few features, such as the liver, had more accurate histogram estimates and required fewer iterations and more smoothing for optimal results. Smaller objects with fine details, such as the kidneys, required more iterations and less smoothing at early time points post-radiopharmaceutical administration but more smoothing and fewer iterations at later time points when the total organ activity was lower. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of using optimal reconstruction and regularization parameters. Optimal results were obtained with different parameters at each time point, but using a single set of parameters for all time points produced near-optimal dose-volume histograms.

Efficient Regressions via Optimally Combining Quantile Information*

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhibiao; Xiao, Zhijie

2014-01-01

We develop a generally applicable framework for constructing efficient estimators of regression models via quantile regressions. The proposed method is based on optimally combining information over multiple quantiles and can be applied to a broad range of parametric and nonparametric settings. When combining information over a fixed number of quantiles, we derive an upper bound on the distance between the efficiency of the proposed estimator and the Fisher information. As the number of quantiles increases, this upper bound decreases and the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator approaches the Cramér-Rao lower bound under appropriate conditions. In the case of non-regular statistical estimation, the proposed estimator leads to super-efficient estimation. We illustrate the proposed method for several widely used regression models. Both asymptotic theory and Monte Carlo experiments show the superior performance over existing methods. PMID:25484481

QUADRO: A SUPERVISED DIMENSION REDUCTION METHOD VIA RAYLEIGH QUOTIENT OPTIMIZATION.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Ke, Zheng Tracy; Liu, Han; Xia, Lucy

We propose a novel Rayleigh quotient based sparse quadratic dimension reduction method-named QUADRO (Quadratic Dimension Reduction via Rayleigh Optimization)-for analyzing high-dimensional data. Unlike in the linear setting where Rayleigh quotient optimization coincides with classification, these two problems are very different under nonlinear settings. In this paper, we clarify this difference and show that Rayleigh quotient optimization may be of independent scientific interests. One major challenge of Rayleigh quotient optimization is that the variance of quadratic statistics involves all fourth cross-moments of predictors, which are infeasible to compute for high-dimensional applications and may accumulate too many stochastic errors. This issue is resolved by considering a family of elliptical models. Moreover, for heavy-tail distributions, robust estimates of mean vectors and covariance matrices are employed to guarantee uniform convergence in estimating non-polynomially many parameters, even though only the fourth moments are assumed. Methodologically, QUADRO is based on elliptical models which allow us to formulate the Rayleigh quotient maximization as a convex optimization problem. Computationally, we propose an efficient linearized augmented Lagrangian method to solve the constrained optimization problem. Theoretically, we provide explicit rates of convergence in terms of Rayleigh quotient under both Gaussian and general elliptical models. Thorough numerical results on both synthetic and real datasets are also provided to back up our theoretical results.

Inverse problems and optimal experiment design in unsteady heat transfer processes identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Artyukhin, Eugene A.

1991-01-01

Experimental-computational methods for estimating characteristics of unsteady heat transfer processes are analyzed. The methods are based on the principles of distributed parameter system identification. The theoretical basis of such methods is the numerical solution of nonlinear ill-posed inverse heat transfer problems and optimal experiment design problems. Numerical techniques for solving problems are briefly reviewed. The results of the practical application of identification methods are demonstrated when estimating effective thermophysical characteristics of composite materials and thermal contact resistance in two-layer systems.

A Calibration-Free Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (CF-LIBS) Quantitative Analysis Method Based on the Auto-Selection of an Internal Reference Line and Optimized Estimation of Plasma Temperature.

PubMed

Yang, Jianhong; Li, Xiaomeng; Xu, Jinwu; Ma, Xianghong

2018-01-01

The quantitative analysis accuracy of calibration-free laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (CF-LIBS) is severely affected by the self-absorption effect and estimation of plasma temperature. Herein, a CF-LIBS quantitative analysis method based on the auto-selection of internal reference line and the optimized estimation of plasma temperature is proposed. The internal reference line of each species is automatically selected from analytical lines by a programmable procedure through easily accessible parameters. Furthermore, the self-absorption effect of the internal reference line is considered during the correction procedure. To improve the analysis accuracy of CF-LIBS, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is introduced to estimate the plasma temperature based on the calculation results from the Boltzmann plot. Thereafter, the species concentrations of a sample can be calculated according to the classical CF-LIBS method. A total of 15 certified alloy steel standard samples of known compositions and elemental weight percentages were used in the experiment. Using the proposed method, the average relative errors of Cr, Ni, and Fe calculated concentrations were 4.40%, 6.81%, and 2.29%, respectively. The quantitative results demonstrated an improvement compared with the classical CF-LIBS method and the promising potential of in situ and real-time application.

[Application of an Adaptive Inertia Weight Particle Swarm Algorithm in the Magnetic Resonance Bias Field Correction].

PubMed

Wang, Chang; Qin, Xin; Liu, Yan; Zhang, Wenchao

2016-06-01

An adaptive inertia weight particle swarm algorithm is proposed in this study to solve the local optimal problem with the method of traditional particle swarm optimization in the process of estimating magnetic resonance(MR)image bias field.An indicator measuring the degree of premature convergence was designed for the defect of traditional particle swarm optimization algorithm.The inertia weight was adjusted adaptively based on this indicator to ensure particle swarm to be optimized globally and to avoid it from falling into local optimum.The Legendre polynomial was used to fit bias field,the polynomial parameters were optimized globally,and finally the bias field was estimated and corrected.Compared to those with the improved entropy minimum algorithm,the entropy of corrected image was smaller and the estimated bias field was more accurate in this study.Then the corrected image was segmented and the segmentation accuracy obtained in this research was 10% higher than that with improved entropy minimum algorithm.This algorithm can be applied to the correction of MR image bias field.

Optimal Preventive Maintenance Schedule based on Lifecycle Cost and Time-Dependent Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-10

Page 1 of 16 UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release. 12IDM-0064 Optimal Preventive Maintenance Schedule based... 1 . INTRODUCTION Customers and product manufacturers demand continued functionality of complex equipment and processes. Degradation of material...Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response

Evidence-Based Design of Fixed-Dose Combinations: Principles and Application to Pediatric Anti-Tuberculosis Therapy.

PubMed

Svensson, Elin M; Yngman, Gunnar; Denti, Paolo; McIlleron, Helen; Kjellsson, Maria C; Karlsson, Mats O

2018-05-01

Fixed-dose combination formulations where several drugs are included in one tablet are important for the implementation of many long-term multidrug therapies. The selection of optimal dose ratios and tablet content of a fixed-dose combination and the design of individualized dosing regimens is a complex task, requiring multiple simultaneous considerations. In this work, a methodology for the rational design of a fixed-dose combination was developed and applied to the case of a three-drug pediatric anti-tuberculosis formulation individualized on body weight. The optimization methodology synthesizes information about the intended use population, the pharmacokinetic properties of the drugs, therapeutic targets, and practical constraints. A utility function is included to penalize deviations from the targets; a sequential estimation procedure was developed for stable estimation of break-points for individualized dosing. The suggested optimized pediatric anti-tuberculosis fixed-dose combination was compared with the recently launched World Health Organization-endorsed formulation. The optimized fixed-dose combination included 15, 36, and 16% higher amounts of rifampicin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide, respectively. The optimized fixed-dose combination is expected to result in overall less deviation from the therapeutic targets based on adult exposure and substantially fewer children with underexposure (below half the target). The development of this design tool can aid the implementation of evidence-based formulations, integrating available knowledge and practical considerations, to optimize drug exposures and thereby treatment outcomes.

Optimal clinical trial design based on a dichotomous Markov-chain mixed-effect sleep model.

PubMed

Steven Ernest, C; Nyberg, Joakim; Karlsson, Mats O; Hooker, Andrew C

2014-12-01

D-optimal designs for discrete-type responses have been derived using generalized linear mixed models, simulation based methods and analytical approximations for computing the fisher information matrix (FIM) of non-linear mixed effect models with homogeneous probabilities over time. In this work, D-optimal designs using an analytical approximation of the FIM for a dichotomous, non-homogeneous, Markov-chain phase advanced sleep non-linear mixed effect model was investigated. The non-linear mixed effect model consisted of transition probabilities of dichotomous sleep data estimated as logistic functions using piecewise linear functions. Theoretical linear and nonlinear dose effects were added to the transition probabilities to modify the probability of being in either sleep stage. D-optimal designs were computed by determining an analytical approximation the FIM for each Markov component (one where the previous state was awake and another where the previous state was asleep). Each Markov component FIM was weighted either equally or by the average probability of response being awake or asleep over the night and summed to derive the total FIM (FIM(total)). The reference designs were placebo, 0.1, 1-, 6-, 10- and 20-mg dosing for a 2- to 6-way crossover study in six dosing groups. Optimized design variables were dose and number of subjects in each dose group. The designs were validated using stochastic simulation/re-estimation (SSE). Contrary to expectations, the predicted parameter uncertainty obtained via FIM(total) was larger than the uncertainty in parameter estimates computed by SSE. Nevertheless, the D-optimal designs decreased the uncertainty of parameter estimates relative to the reference designs. Additionally, the improvement for the D-optimal designs were more pronounced using SSE than predicted via FIM(total). Through the use of an approximate analytic solution and weighting schemes, the FIM(total) for a non-homogeneous, dichotomous Markov-chain phase advanced sleep model was computed and provided more efficient trial designs and increased nonlinear mixed-effects modeling parameter precision.

Monocular-Based 6-Degree of Freedom Pose Estimation Technology for Robotic Intelligent Grasping Systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Guo, Yin; Yang, Shourui; Yin, Shibin; Zhu, Jigui

2017-01-01

Industrial robots are expected to undertake ever more advanced tasks in the modern manufacturing industry, such as intelligent grasping, in which robots should be capable of recognizing the position and orientation of a part before grasping it. In this paper, a monocular-based 6-degree of freedom (DOF) pose estimation technology to enable robots to grasp large-size parts at informal poses is proposed. A camera was mounted on the robot end-flange and oriented to measure several featured points on the part before the robot moved to grasp it. In order to estimate the part pose, a nonlinear optimization model based on the camera object space collinearity error in different poses is established, and the initial iteration value is estimated with the differential transformation. Measuring poses of the camera are optimized based on uncertainty analysis. Also, the principle of the robotic intelligent grasping system was developed, with which the robot could adjust its pose to grasp the part. In experimental tests, the part poses estimated with the method described in this paper were compared with those produced by a laser tracker, and results show the RMS angle and position error are about 0.0228° and 0.4603 mm. Robotic intelligent grasping tests were also successfully performed in the experiments. PMID:28216555

Monocular-Based 6-Degree of Freedom Pose Estimation Technology for Robotic Intelligent Grasping Systems.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Guo, Yin; Yang, Shourui; Yin, Shibin; Zhu, Jigui

2017-02-14

Industrial robots are expected to undertake ever more advanced tasks in the modern manufacturing industry, such as intelligent grasping, in which robots should be capable of recognizing the position and orientation of a part before grasping it. In this paper, a monocular-based 6-degree of freedom (DOF) pose estimation technology to enable robots to grasp large-size parts at informal poses is proposed. A camera was mounted on the robot end-flange and oriented to measure several featured points on the part before the robot moved to grasp it. In order to estimate the part pose, a nonlinear optimization model based on the camera object space collinearity error in different poses is established, and the initial iteration value is estimated with the differential transformation. Measuring poses of the camera are optimized based on uncertainty analysis. Also, the principle of the robotic intelligent grasping system was developed, with which the robot could adjust its pose to grasp the part. In experimental tests, the part poses estimated with the method described in this paper were compared with those produced by a laser tracker, and results show the RMS angle and position error are about 0.0228° and 0.4603 mm. Robotic intelligent grasping tests were also successfully performed in the experiments.

An improved multi-paths optimization method for video stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Tao; Zhong, Sheng

2018-03-01

For video stabilization, the difference between original camera motion path and the optimized one is proportional to the cropping ratio and warping ratio. A good optimized path should preserve the moving tendency of the original one meanwhile the cropping ratio and warping ratio of each frame should be kept in a proper range. In this paper we use an improved warping-based motion representation model, and propose a gauss-based multi-paths optimization method to get a smoothing path and obtain a stabilized video. The proposed video stabilization method consists of two parts: camera motion path estimation and path smoothing. We estimate the perspective transform of adjacent frames according to warping-based motion representation model. It works well on some challenging videos where most previous 2D methods or 3D methods fail for lacking of long features trajectories. The multi-paths optimization method can deal well with parallax, as we calculate the space-time correlation of the adjacent grid, and then a kernel of gauss is used to weigh the motion of adjacent grid. Then the multi-paths are smoothed while minimize the crop ratio and the distortion. We test our method on a large variety of consumer videos, which have casual jitter and parallax, and achieve good results.

Optimal auxiliary-covariate-based two-phase sampling design for semiparametric efficient estimation of a mean or mean difference, with application to clinical trials.

PubMed

Gilbert, Peter B; Yu, Xuesong; Rotnitzky, Andrea

2014-03-15

To address the objective in a clinical trial to estimate the mean or mean difference of an expensive endpoint Y, one approach employs a two-phase sampling design, wherein inexpensive auxiliary variables W predictive of Y are measured in everyone, Y is measured in a random sample, and the semiparametric efficient estimator is applied. This approach is made efficient by specifying the phase two selection probabilities as optimal functions of the auxiliary variables and measurement costs. While this approach is familiar to survey samplers, it apparently has seldom been used in clinical trials, and several novel results practicable for clinical trials are developed. We perform simulations to identify settings where the optimal approach significantly improves efficiency compared to approaches in current practice. We provide proofs and R code. The optimality results are developed to design an HIV vaccine trial, with objective to compare the mean 'importance-weighted' breadth (Y) of the T-cell response between randomized vaccine groups. The trial collects an auxiliary response (W) highly predictive of Y and measures Y in the optimal subset. We show that the optimal design-estimation approach can confer anywhere between absent and large efficiency gain (up to 24 % in the examples) compared to the approach with the same efficient estimator but simple random sampling, where greater variability in the cost-standardized conditional variance of Y given W yields greater efficiency gains. Accurate estimation of E[Y | W] is important for realizing the efficiency gain, which is aided by an ample phase two sample and by using a robust fitting method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal Auxiliary-Covariate Based Two-Phase Sampling Design for Semiparametric Efficient Estimation of a Mean or Mean Difference, with Application to Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Peter B.; Yu, Xuesong; Rotnitzky, Andrea

2014-01-01

To address the objective in a clinical trial to estimate the mean or mean difference of an expensive endpoint Y, one approach employs a two-phase sampling design, wherein inexpensive auxiliary variables W predictive of Y are measured in everyone, Y is measured in a random sample, and the semi-parametric efficient estimator is applied. This approach is made efficient by specifying the phase-two selection probabilities as optimal functions of the auxiliary variables and measurement costs. While this approach is familiar to survey samplers, it apparently has seldom been used in clinical trials, and several novel results practicable for clinical trials are developed. Simulations are performed to identify settings where the optimal approach significantly improves efficiency compared to approaches in current practice. Proofs and R code are provided. The optimality results are developed to design an HIV vaccine trial, with objective to compare the mean “importance-weighted” breadth (Y) of the T cell response between randomized vaccine groups. The trial collects an auxiliary response (W) highly predictive of Y, and measures Y in the optimal subset. We show that the optimal design-estimation approach can confer anywhere between absent and large efficiency gain (up to 24% in the examples) compared to the approach with the same efficient estimator but simple random sampling, where greater variability in the cost-standardized conditional variance of Y given W yields greater efficiency gains. Accurate estimation of E[Y∣W] is important for realizing the efficiency gain, which is aided by an ample phase-two sample and by using a robust fitting method. PMID:24123289

Optimizing Travel Time to Outpatient Interventional Radiology Procedures in a Multi-Site Hospital System Using a Google Maps Application.

PubMed

Mandel, Jacob E; Morel-Ovalle, Louis; Boas, Franz E; Ziv, Etay; Yarmohammadi, Hooman; Deipolyi, Amy; Mohabir, Heeralall R; Erinjeri, Joseph P

2018-02-20

The purpose of this study is to determine whether a custom Google Maps application can optimize site selection when scheduling outpatient interventional radiology (IR) procedures within a multi-site hospital system. The Google Maps for Business Application Programming Interface (API) was used to develop an internal web application that uses real-time traffic data to determine estimated travel time (ETT; minutes) and estimated travel distance (ETD; miles) from a patient's home to each a nearby IR facility in our hospital system. Hypothetical patient home addresses based on the 33 cities comprising our institution's catchment area were used to determine the optimal IR site for hypothetical patients traveling from each city based on real-time traffic conditions. For 10/33 (30%) cities, there was discordance between the optimal IR site based on ETT and the optimal IR site based on ETD at non-rush hour time or rush hour time. By choosing to travel to an IR site based on ETT rather than ETD, patients from discordant cities were predicted to save an average of 7.29 min during non-rush hour (p = 0.03), and 28.80 min during rush hour (p < 0.001). Using a custom Google Maps application to schedule outpatients for IR procedures can effectively reduce patient travel time when more than one location providing IR procedures is available within the same hospital system.

Possibility-based robust design optimization for the structural-acoustic system with fuzzy parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hui; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Shengwen; Xia, Baizhan

2018-03-01

The conventional engineering optimization problems considering uncertainties are based on the probabilistic model. However, the probabilistic model may be unavailable because of the lack of sufficient objective information to construct the precise probability distribution of uncertainties. This paper proposes a possibility-based robust design optimization (PBRDO) framework for the uncertain structural-acoustic system based on the fuzzy set model, which can be constructed by expert opinions. The objective of robust design is to optimize the expectation and variability of system performance with respect to uncertainties simultaneously. In the proposed PBRDO, the entropy of the fuzzy system response is used as the variability index; the weighted sum of the entropy and expectation of the fuzzy response is used as the objective function, and the constraints are established in the possibility context. The computations for the constraints and objective function of PBRDO are a triple-loop and a double-loop nested problem, respectively, whose computational costs are considerable. To improve the computational efficiency, the target performance approach is introduced to transform the calculation of the constraints into a double-loop nested problem. To further improve the computational efficiency, a Chebyshev fuzzy method (CFM) based on the Chebyshev polynomials is proposed to estimate the objective function, and the Chebyshev interval method (CIM) is introduced to estimate the constraints, thereby the optimization problem is transformed into a single-loop one. Numerical results on a shell structural-acoustic system verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods.

Two phase sampling for wheat acreage estimation. [large area crop inventory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. W.; Hay, C. M.

1977-01-01

A two phase LANDSAT-based sample allocation and wheat proportion estimation method was developed. This technique employs manual, LANDSAT full frame-based wheat or cultivated land proportion estimates from a large number of segments comprising a first sample phase to optimally allocate a smaller phase two sample of computer or manually processed segments. Application to the Kansas Southwest CRD for 1974 produced a wheat acreage estimate for that CRD within 2.42 percent of the USDA SRS-based estimate using a lower CRD inventory budget than for a simulated reference LACIE system. Factor of 2 or greater cost or precision improvements relative to the reference system were obtained.

A two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective optimization approach to hydrometeorological gauge network design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Pengcheng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

2017-12-01

Hydrometeorological data are needed for obtaining point and areal mean, quantifying the spatial variability of hydrometeorological variables, and calibration and verification of hydrometeorological models. Hydrometeorological networks are utilized to collect such data. Since data collection is expensive, it is essential to design an optimal network based on the minimal number of hydrometeorological stations in order to reduce costs. This study proposes a two-phase copula entropy- based multiobjective optimization approach that includes: (1) copula entropy-based directional information transfer (CDIT) for clustering the potential hydrometeorological gauges into several groups, and (2) multiobjective method for selecting the optimal combination of gauges for regionalized groups. Although entropy theory has been employed for network design before, the joint histogram method used for mutual information estimation has several limitations. The copula entropy-based mutual information (MI) estimation method is shown to be more effective for quantifying the uncertainty of redundant information than the joint histogram (JH) method. The effectiveness of this approach is verified by applying to one type of hydrometeorological gauge network, with the use of three model evaluation measures, including Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC), arithmetic mean of the negative copula entropy (MNCE), and MNCE/NSC. Results indicate that the two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective technique is capable of evaluating the performance of regional hydrometeorological networks and can enable decision makers to develop strategies for water resources management.

Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

PubMed Central

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

Optimal accelerometer placement on a robot arm for pose estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijayasinghe, Indika B.; Sanford, Joseph D.; Abubakar, Shamsudeen; Saadatzi, Mohammad Nasser; Das, Sumit K.; Popa, Dan O.

2017-05-01

The performance of robots to carry out tasks depends in part on the sensor information they can utilize. Usually, robots are fitted with angle joint encoders that are used to estimate the position and orientation (or the pose) of its end-effector. However, there are numerous situations, such as in legged locomotion, mobile manipulation, or prosthetics, where such joint sensors may not be present at every, or any joint. In this paper we study the use of inertial sensors, in particular accelerometers, placed on the robot that can be used to estimate the robot pose. Studying accelerometer placement on a robot involves many parameters that affect the performance of the intended positioning task. Parameters such as the number of accelerometers, their size, geometric placement and Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) are included in our study of their effects for robot pose estimation. Due to the ubiquitous availability of inexpensive accelerometers, we investigated pose estimation gains resulting from using increasingly large numbers of sensors. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed with a two-link robot arm to obtain the expected value of an estimation error metric for different accelerometer configurations, which are then compared for optimization. Results show that, with a fixed SNR model, the pose estimation error decreases with increasing number of accelerometers, whereas for a SNR model that scales inversely to the accelerometer footprint, the pose estimation error increases with the number of accelerometers. It is also shown that the optimal placement of the accelerometers depends on the method used for pose estimation. The findings suggest that an integration-based method favors placement of accelerometers at the extremities of the robot links, whereas a kinematic-constraints-based method favors a more uniformly distributed placement along the robot links.

Combined radar-radiometer surface soil moisture and roughness estimation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A robust physics-based combined radar-radiometer, or Active-Passive, surface soil moisture and roughness estimation methodology is presented. Soil moisture and roughness retrieval is performed via optimization, i.e., minimization, of a joint objective function which constrains similar resolution rad...

Stemflow estimation in a redwood forest using model-based stratified random sampling

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2003-01-01

Model-based stratified sampling is illustrated by a case study of stemflow volume in a redwood forest. The approach is actually a model-assisted sampling design in which auxiliary information (tree diameter) is utilized in the design of stratum boundaries to optimize the efficiency of a regression or ratio estimator. The auxiliary information is utilized in both the...

MATLAB-implemented estimation procedure for model-based assessment of hepatic insulin degradation from standard intravenous glucose tolerance test data.

PubMed

Di Nardo, Francesco; Mengoni, Michele; Morettini, Micaela

2013-05-01

Present study provides a novel MATLAB-based parameter estimation procedure for individual assessment of hepatic insulin degradation (HID) process from standard frequently-sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (FSIGTT) data. Direct access to the source code, offered by MATLAB, enabled us to design an optimization procedure based on the alternating use of Gauss-Newton's and Levenberg-Marquardt's algorithms, which assures the full convergence of the process and the containment of computational time. Reliability was tested by direct comparison with the application, in eighteen non-diabetic subjects, of well-known kinetic analysis software package SAAM II, and by application on different data. Agreement between MATLAB and SAAM II was warranted by intraclass correlation coefficients ≥0.73; no significant differences between corresponding mean parameter estimates and prediction of HID rate; and consistent residual analysis. Moreover, MATLAB optimization procedure resulted in a significant 51% reduction of CV% for the worst-estimated parameter by SAAM II and in maintaining all model-parameter CV% <20%. In conclusion, our MATLAB-based procedure was suggested as a suitable tool for the individual assessment of HID process. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroo, Ilan; Willcox, Karen; March, Andrew; Haas, Alex; Rajnarayan, Dev; Kays, Cory

2010-01-01

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

Adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control of resistive wall modes in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2006-01-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least-square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify (experimentally determine) the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time-dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

Adaptive Optimal Stochastic State Feedback Control of Resistive Wall Modes in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2007-06-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

Sensitivity analysis of pars-tensa young's modulus estimation using inverse finite-element modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohani, S. Alireza; Elfarnawany, Mai; Agrawal, Sumit K.; Ladak, Hanif M.

2018-05-01

Accurate estimates of the pars-tensa (PT) Young's modulus (EPT) are required in finite-element (FE) modeling studies of the middle ear. Previously, we introduced an in-situ EPT estimation technique by optimizing a sample-specific FE model to match experimental eardrum pressurization data. This optimization process requires choosing some modeling assumptions such as PT thickness and boundary conditions. These assumptions are reported with a wide range of variation in the literature, hence affecting the reliability of the models. In addition, the sensitivity of the estimated EPT to FE modeling assumptions has not been studied. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify the most influential modeling assumption on EPT estimates. The middle-ear cavity extracted from a cadaveric temporal bone was pressurized to 500 Pa. The deformed shape of the eardrum after pressurization was measured using a Fourier transform profilometer (FTP). A base-line FE model of the unpressurized middle ear was created. The EPT was estimated using golden section optimization method, which minimizes the cost function comparing the deformed FE model shape to the measured shape after pressurization. The effect of varying the modeling assumptions on EPT estimates were investigated. This included the change in PT thickness, pars flaccida Young's modulus and possible FTP measurement error. The most influential parameter on EPT estimation was PT thickness and the least influential parameter was pars flaccida Young's modulus. The results of this study provide insight into how different parameters affect the results of EPT optimization and which parameters' uncertainties require further investigation to develop robust estimation techniques.

Hybrid Optimal Design of the Eco-Hydrological Wireless Sensor Network in the Middle Reach of the Heihe River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Kang, Jian; Li, Xin; Jin, Rui; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Wang, Jianghao

2014-01-01

The eco-hydrological wireless sensor network (EHWSN) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in China is designed to capture the spatial and temporal variability and to estimate the ground truth for validating the remote sensing productions. However, there is no available prior information about a target variable. To meet both requirements, a hybrid model-based sampling method without any spatial autocorrelation assumptions is developed to optimize the distribution of EHWSN nodes based on geostatistics. This hybrid model incorporates two sub-criteria: one for the variogram modeling to represent the variability, another for improving the spatial prediction to evaluate remote sensing productions. The reasonability of the optimized EHWSN is validated from representativeness, the variogram modeling and the spatial accuracy through using 15 types of simulation fields generated with the unconditional geostatistical stochastic simulation. The sampling design shows good representativeness; variograms estimated by samples have less than 3% mean error relative to true variograms. Then, fields at multiple scales are predicted. As the scale increases, estimated fields have higher similarities to simulation fields at block sizes exceeding 240 m. The validations prove that this hybrid sampling method is effective for both objectives when we do not know the characteristics of an optimized variables. PMID:25317762

Hybrid optimal design of the eco-hydrological wireless sensor network in the middle reach of the Heihe River Basin, China.

PubMed

Kang, Jian; Li, Xin; Jin, Rui; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Wang, Jianghao

2014-10-14

The eco-hydrological wireless sensor network (EHWSN) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in China is designed to capture the spatial and temporal variability and to estimate the ground truth for validating the remote sensing productions. However, there is no available prior information about a target variable. To meet both requirements, a hybrid model-based sampling method without any spatial autocorrelation assumptions is developed to optimize the distribution of EHWSN nodes based on geostatistics. This hybrid model incorporates two sub-criteria: one for the variogram modeling to represent the variability, another for improving the spatial prediction to evaluate remote sensing productions. The reasonability of the optimized EHWSN is validated from representativeness, the variogram modeling and the spatial accuracy through using 15 types of simulation fields generated with the unconditional geostatistical stochastic simulation. The sampling design shows good representativeness; variograms estimated by samples have less than 3% mean error relative to true variograms. Then, fields at multiple scales are predicted. As the scale increases, estimated fields have higher similarities to simulation fields at block sizes exceeding 240 m. The validations prove that this hybrid sampling method is effective for both objectives when we do not know the characteristics of an optimized variables.

Optimization-based scatter estimation using primary modulation for computed tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yi; Ma, Jingchen; Zhao, Jun, E-mail: junzhao

Purpose: Scatter reduces the image quality in computed tomography (CT), but scatter correction remains a challenge. A previously proposed primary modulation method simultaneously obtains the primary and scatter in a single scan. However, separating the scatter and primary in primary modulation is challenging because it is an underdetermined problem. In this study, an optimization-based scatter estimation (OSE) algorithm is proposed to estimate and correct scatter. Methods: In the concept of primary modulation, the primary is modulated, but the scatter remains smooth by inserting a modulator between the x-ray source and the object. In the proposed algorithm, an objective function ismore » designed for separating the scatter and primary. Prior knowledge is incorporated in the optimization-based framework to improve the accuracy of the estimation: (1) the primary is always positive; (2) the primary is locally smooth and the scatter is smooth; (3) the location of penumbra can be determined; and (4) the scatter-contaminated data provide knowledge about which part is smooth. Results: The simulation study shows that the edge-preserving weighting in OSE improves the estimation accuracy near the object boundary. Simulation study also demonstrates that OSE outperforms the two existing primary modulation algorithms for most regions of interest in terms of the CT number accuracy and noise. The proposed method was tested on a clinical cone beam CT, demonstrating that OSE corrects the scatter even when the modulator is not accurately registered. Conclusions: The proposed OSE algorithm improves the robustness and accuracy in scatter estimation and correction. This method is promising for scatter correction of various kinds of x-ray imaging modalities, such as x-ray radiography, cone beam CT, and the fourth-generation CT.« less

Optimizing Photosynthetic and Respiratory Parameters Based on the Seasonal Variation Pattern in Regional Net Ecosystem Productivity Obtained from Atmospheric Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Chen, J.; Zheng, X.; Jiang, F.; Zhang, S.; Ju, W.; Yuan, W.; Mo, G.

2014-12-01

In this study, we explore the feasibility of optimizing ecosystem photosynthetic and respiratory parameters from the seasonal variation pattern of the net carbon flux. An optimization scheme is proposed to estimate two key parameters (Vcmax and Q10) by exploiting the seasonal variation in the net ecosystem carbon flux retrieved by an atmospheric inversion system. This scheme is implemented to estimate Vcmax and Q10 of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to improve its NEP simulation in the Boreal North America (BNA) region. Simultaneously, in-situ NEE observations at six eddy covariance sites are used to evaluate the NEE simulations. The results show that the performance of the optimized BEPS is superior to that of the BEPS with the default parameter values. These results have the implication on using atmospheric CO2 data for optimizing ecosystem parameters through atmospheric inversion or data assimilation techniques.

An efficient assisted history matching and uncertainty quantification workflow using Gaussian processes proxy models and variogram based sensitivity analysis: GP-VARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Sachin; Ertekin, Turgay; King, Gregory R.

2018-05-01

Reservoir history matching is frequently viewed as an optimization problem which involves minimizing misfit between simulated and observed data. Many gradient and evolutionary strategy based optimization algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem which typically require a large number of numerical simulations to find feasible solutions. Therefore, a new methodology referred to as GP-VARS is proposed in this study which uses forward and inverse Gaussian processes (GP) based proxy models combined with a novel application of variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) based sensitivity analysis to efficiently solve high dimensional history matching problems. Empirical Bayes approach is proposed to optimally train GP proxy models for any given data. The history matching solutions are found via Bayesian optimization (BO) on forward GP models and via predictions of inverse GP model in an iterative manner. An uncertainty quantification method using MCMC sampling in conjunction with GP model is also presented to obtain a probabilistic estimate of reservoir properties and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). An application of the proposed GP-VARS methodology on PUNQ-S3 reservoir is presented in which it is shown that GP-VARS provides history match solutions in approximately four times less numerical simulations as compared to the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Furthermore, a comparison of uncertainty quantification results obtained by GP-VARS, EnKF and other previously published methods shows that the P50 estimate of oil EUR obtained by GP-VARS is in close agreement to the true values for the PUNQ-S3 reservoir.

Optimization of the Inverse Algorithm for Estimating the Optical Properties of Biological Materials Using Spatially-resolved Diffuse Reflectance Technique

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Determination of the optical properties from intact biological materials based on diffusion approximation theory is a complicated inverse problem, and it requires proper implementation of inverse algorithm, instrumentation, and experiment. This work was aimed at optimizing the procedure of estimatin...

The effect of framing on surrogate optimism bias: A simulation study.

PubMed

Patel, Dev; Cohen, Elan D; Barnato, Amber E

2016-04-01

To explore the effect of emotion priming and physician communication behaviors on optimism bias. We conducted a 5 × 2 between-subject randomized factorial experiment using a Web-based interactive video designed to simulate a family meeting for a critically ill spouse/parent. Eligibility included age at least 35 years and self-identifying as the surrogate for a spouse/parent. The primary outcome was the surrogate's election of code status. We defined optimism bias as the surrogate's estimate of prognosis with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) > their recollection of the physician's estimate. Of 373 respondents, 256 (69%) logged in and were randomized and 220 (86%) had nonmissing data for prognosis. Sixty-seven (30%) of 220 overall and 56 of (32%) 173 with an accurate recollection of the physician's estimate had optimism bias. Optimism bias correlated with choosing CPR (P < .001). Emotion priming (P = .397), physician attention to emotion (P = .537), and framing of CPR as the social norm (P = .884) did not affect optimism bias. Framing the decision as the patient's vs the surrogate's (25% vs 36%, P = .066) and describing the alternative to CPR as "allow natural death" instead of "do not resuscitate" (25% vs 37%, P = .035) decreased optimism bias. Framing of CPR choice during code status conversations may influence surrogates' optimism bias. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2017-04-01

Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

Experimental research of UWB over fiber system employing 128-QAM and ISFA-optimized scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jing; Xiang, Changqing; Long, Fengting; Chen, Zuo

2018-05-01

In this paper, an optimized intra-symbol frequency-domain averaging (ISFA) scheme is proposed and experimentally demonstrated in intensity-modulation and direct-detection (IMDD) multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) ultra-wideband over fiber (UWBoF) system. According to the channel responses of three MB-OFDM UWB sub-bands, the optimal ISFA window size for each sub-band is investigated. After 60-km standard single mode fiber (SSMF) transmission, the experimental results show that, at the bit error rate (BER) of 3.8 × 10-3, the receiver sensitivity of 128-quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) can be improved by 1.9 dB using the proposed enhanced ISFA combined with training sequence (TS)-based channel estimation scheme, compared with the conventional TS-based channel estimation. Moreover, the spectral efficiency (SE) is up to 5.39 bit/s/Hz.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.

2013-12-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameter identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from indirect concentration measurements in identifying unknown source parameters such as the release time, strength and location. In this approach, the sampling location that gives the maximum relative entropy is selected as the optimal one. Once the sampling location is determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown source parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. Compared with the traditional optimal design, which is based on the Gaussian linear assumption, the method developed in this study can cope with arbitrary nonlinearity. It can be used to assist in groundwater monitor network design and identification of unknown contaminant sources. Contours of the expected information gain. The optimal observing location corresponds to the maximum value. Posterior marginal probability densities of unknown parameters, the thick solid black lines are for the designed location. For comparison, other 7 lines are for randomly chosen locations. The true values are denoted by vertical lines. It is obvious that the unknown parameters are estimated better with the desinged location.

Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach.

PubMed

Zhang, J L; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Baetz, B W; Liu, J

2017-06-01

In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic-possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision alternatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

2010-12-01

The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST I/O protocol). MADS can also be internally coupled with a series of built-in analytical simulators. MADS provides functionality to work directly with existing control files developed for the code PEST (Doherty 2009). To perform the computational modes mentioned above, the code utilizes (1) advanced Latin-Hypercube sampling techniques (including Improved Distributed Sampling), (2) various gradient-based Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, (3) advanced global optimization methods (including Particle Swarm Optimization), and (4) a selection of alternative objective functions. The code has been successfully applied to perform various model analyses related to environmental management of real contamination sites. Examples include source identification problems, quantification of uncertainty, model calibration, and optimization of monitoring networks. The methodology and software codes are demonstrated using synthetic and real case studies where monitoring networks are optimized taking into account the uncertainty in model predictions of contaminant transport.

Application of nonlinear least-squares regression to ground-water flow modeling, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yobbi, D.K.

2000-01-01

A nonlinear least-squares regression technique for estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to an existing model of the regional aquifer system underlying west-central Florida. The regression technique minimizes the differences between measured and simulated water levels. Regression statistics, including parameter sensitivities and correlations, were calculated for reported parameter values in the existing model. Optimal parameter values for selected hydrologic variables of interest are estimated by nonlinear regression. Optimal estimates of parameter values are about 140 times greater than and about 0.01 times less than reported values. Independently estimating all parameters by nonlinear regression was impossible, given the existing zonation structure and number of observations, because of parameter insensitivity and correlation. Although the model yields parameter values similar to those estimated by other methods and reproduces the measured water levels reasonably accurately, a simpler parameter structure should be considered. Some possible ways of improving model calibration are to: (1) modify the defined parameter-zonation structure by omitting and/or combining parameters to be estimated; (2) carefully eliminate observation data based on evidence that they are likely to be biased; (3) collect additional water-level data; (4) assign values to insensitive parameters, and (5) estimate the most sensitive parameters first, then, using the optimized values for these parameters, estimate the entire data set.

New closed-form approximation for skin chromophore mapping.

PubMed

Välisuo, Petri; Kaartinen, Ilkka; Tuchin, Valery; Alander, Jarmo

2011-04-01

The concentrations of blood and melanin in skin can be estimated based on the reflectance of light. Many models for this estimation have been built, such as Monte Carlo simulation, diffusion models, and the differential modified Beer-Lambert law. The optimization-based methods are too slow for chromophore mapping of high-resolution spectral images, and the differential modified Beer-Lambert is not often accurate enough. Optimal coefficients for the differential Beer-Lambert model are calculated by differentiating the diffusion model, optimized to the normal skin spectrum. The derivatives are then used in predicting the difference in chromophore concentrations from the difference in absorption spectra. The accuracy of the method is tested both computationally and experimentally using a Monte Carlo multilayer simulation model, and the data are measured from the palm of a hand during an Allen's test, which modulates the blood content of skin. The correlations of the given and predicted blood, melanin, and oxygen saturation levels are correspondingly r = 0.94, r = 0.99, and r = 0.73. The prediction of the concentrations for all pixels in a 1-megapixel image would take ∼ 20 min, which is orders of magnitude faster than the methods based on optimization during the prediction.

A Multipopulation PSO Based Memetic Algorithm for Permutation Flow Shop Scheduling

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruochen; Ma, Chenlin; Ma, Wenping; Li, Yangyang

2013-01-01

The permutation flow shop scheduling problem (PFSSP) is part of production scheduling, which belongs to the hardest combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, a multipopulation particle swarm optimization (PSO) based memetic algorithm (MPSOMA) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed algorithm, the whole particle swarm population is divided into three subpopulations in which each particle evolves itself by the standard PSO and then updates each subpopulation by using different local search schemes such as variable neighborhood search (VNS) and individual improvement scheme (IIS). Then, the best particle of each subpopulation is selected to construct a probabilistic model by using estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) and three particles are sampled from the probabilistic model to update the worst individual in each subpopulation. The best particle in the entire particle swarm is used to update the global optimal solution. The proposed MPSOMA is compared with two recently proposed algorithms, namely, PSO based memetic algorithm (PSOMA) and hybrid particle swarm optimization with estimation of distribution algorithm (PSOEDA), on 29 well-known PFFSPs taken from OR-library, and the experimental results show that it is an effective approach for the PFFSP. PMID:24453841

SCI model structure determination program (OSR) user's guide. [optimal subset regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The computer program, OSR (Optimal Subset Regression) which estimates models for rotorcraft body and rotor force and moment coefficients is described. The technique used is based on the subset regression algorithm. Given time histories of aerodynamic coefficients, aerodynamic variables, and control inputs, the program computes correlation between various time histories. The model structure determination is based on these correlations. Inputs and outputs of the program are given.

Analysis of an optimization-based atomistic-to-continuum coupling method for point defects

DOE PAGES

Olson, Derek; Shapeev, Alexander V.; Bochev, Pavel B.; ...

2015-11-16

Here, we formulate and analyze an optimization-based Atomistic-to-Continuum (AtC) coupling method for problems with point defects. Application of a potential-based atomistic model near the defect core enables accurate simulation of the defect. Away from the core, where site energies become nearly independent of the lattice position, the method switches to a more efficient continuum model. The two models are merged by minimizing the mismatch of their states on an overlap region, subject to the atomistic and continuum force balance equations acting independently in their domains. We prove that the optimization problem is well-posed and establish error estimates.

Toward endobronchial Ir-192 high-dose-rate brachytherapy therapeutic optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, H. A.; Allison, R. R.; Downie, G. H.; Mota, H. C.; Austerlitz, C.; Jenkins, T.; Sibata, C. H.

2007-06-01

A number of patients with lung cancer receive either palliative or curative high-dose-rate (HDR) endobronchial brachytherapy. Up to a third of patients treated with endobronchial HDR die from hemoptysis. Rather than accept hemoptysis as an expected potential consequence of HDR, we have calculated the radial dose distribution for an Ir-192 HDR source, rigorously examined the dose and prescription points recommended by the American Brachytherapy Society (ABS), and performed a radiobiological-based analysis. The radial dose rate of a commercially available Ir-192 source was calculated with a Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the linear quadratic model, the estimated palliative, curative and blood vessel rupture radii from the center of an Ir-192 source were obtained for the ABS recommendations and a series of customized HDR prescriptions. The estimated radius at risk for blood vessel perforation for the ABS recommendations ranges from 7 to 9 mm. An optimized prescription may in some situations reduce this radius to 4 mm. The estimated blood perforation radius is generally smaller than the palliative radius. Optimized and individualized endobronchial HDR prescriptions are currently feasible based on our current understanding of tumor and normal tissue radiobiology. Individualized prescriptions could minimize complications such as fatal hemoptysis without sacrificing efficacy. Fiducial stents, HDR catheter centering or spacers and the use of CT imaging to better assess the relationship between the catheter and blood vessels promise to be useful strategies for increasing the therapeutic index of this treatment modality. Prospective trials employing treatment optimization algorithms are needed.

A Practical Guide to Calibration of a GSSHA Hydrologic Model Using ERDC Automated Model Calibration Software - Effective and Efficient Stochastic Global Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

parameter estimation method, but rather to carefully describe how to use the ERDC software implementation of MLSL that accommodates the PEST model...model independent LM method based parameter estimation software PEST (Doherty, 2004, 2007a, 2007b), which quantifies model to measure- ment misfit...et al. (2011) focused on one drawback associated with LM-based model independent parameter estimation as implemented in PEST ; viz., that it requires

Acceleration of high resolution temperature based optimization for hyperthermia treatment planning using element grouping.

PubMed

Kok, H P; de Greef, M; Bel, A; Crezee, J

2009-08-01

In regional hyperthermia, optimization is useful to obtain adequate applicator settings. A speed-up of the previously published method for high resolution temperature based optimization is proposed. Element grouping as described in literature uses selected voxel sets instead of single voxels to reduce computation time. Elements which achieve their maximum heating potential for approximately the same phase/amplitude setting are grouped. To form groups, eigenvalues and eigenvectors of precomputed temperature matrices are used. At high resolution temperature matrices are unknown and temperatures are estimated using low resolution (1 cm) computations and the high resolution (2 mm) temperature distribution computed for low resolution optimized settings using zooming. This technique can be applied to estimate an upper bound for high resolution eigenvalues. The heating potential of elements was estimated using these upper bounds. Correlations between elements were estimated with low resolution eigenvalues and eigenvectors, since high resolution eigenvectors remain unknown. Four different grouping criteria were applied. Constraints were set to the average group temperatures. Element grouping was applied for five patients and optimal settings for the AMC-8 system were determined. Without element grouping the average computation times for five and ten runs were 7.1 and 14.4 h, respectively. Strict grouping criteria were necessary to prevent an unacceptable exceeding of the normal tissue constraints (up to approximately 2 degrees C), caused by constraining average instead of maximum temperatures. When strict criteria were applied, speed-up factors of 1.8-2.1 and 2.6-3.5 were achieved for five and ten runs, respectively, depending on the grouping criteria. When many runs are performed, the speed-up factor will converge to 4.3-8.5, which is the average reduction factor of the constraints and depends on the grouping criteria. Tumor temperatures were comparable. Maximum exceeding of the constraint in a hot spot was 0.24-0.34 degree C; average maximum exceeding over all five patients was 0.09-0.21 degree C, which is acceptable. High resolution temperature based optimization using element grouping can achieve a speed-up factor of 4-8, without large deviations from the conventional method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackillop, William J., E-mail: william.mackillop@krcc.on.ca; Kong, Weidong; Brundage, Michael

Purpose: Estimates of the appropriate rate of use of radiation therapy (RT) are required for planning and monitoring access to RT. Our objective was to compare estimates of the appropriate rate of use of RT derived from mathematical models, with the rate observed in a population of patients with optimal access to RT. Methods and Materials: The rate of use of RT within 1 year of diagnosis (RT{sub 1Y}) was measured in the 134,541 cases diagnosed in Ontario between November 2009 and October 2011. The lifetime rate of use of RT (RT{sub LIFETIME}) was estimated by the multicohort utilization tablemore » method. Poisson regression was used to evaluate potential barriers to access to RT and to identify a benchmark subpopulation with unimpeded access to RT. Rates of use of RT were measured in the benchmark subpopulation and compared with published evidence-based estimates of the appropriate rates. Results: The benchmark rate for RT{sub 1Y}, observed under conditions of optimal access, was 33.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.0%-34.1%), and the benchmark for RT{sub LIFETIME} was 41.5% (95% CI, 41.2%-42.0%). Benchmarks for RT{sub LIFETIME} for 4 of 5 selected sites and for all cancers combined were significantly lower than the corresponding evidence-based estimates. Australian and Canadian evidence-based estimates of RT{sub LIFETIME} for 5 selected sites differed widely. RT{sub LIFETIME} in the overall population of Ontario was just 7.9% short of the benchmark but 20.9% short of the Australian evidence-based estimate of the appropriate rate. Conclusions: Evidence-based estimates of the appropriate lifetime rate of use of RT may overestimate the need for RT in Ontario.« less

Nonlinear Dynamic Model-Based Multiobjective Sensor Network Design Algorithm for a Plant with an Estimator-Based Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul, Prokash; Bhattacharyya, Debangsu; Turton, Richard

Here, a novel sensor network design (SND) algorithm is developed for maximizing process efficiency while minimizing sensor network cost for a nonlinear dynamic process with an estimator-based control system. The multiobjective optimization problem is solved following a lexicographic approach where the process efficiency is maximized first followed by minimization of the sensor network cost. The partial net present value, which combines the capital cost due to the sensor network and the operating cost due to deviation from the optimal efficiency, is proposed as an alternative objective. The unscented Kalman filter is considered as the nonlinear estimator. The large-scale combinatorial optimizationmore » problem is solved using a genetic algorithm. The developed SND algorithm is applied to an acid gas removal (AGR) unit as part of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with CO 2 capture. Due to the computational expense, a reduced order nonlinear model of the AGR process is identified and parallel computation is performed during implementation.« less

Nonlinear Dynamic Model-Based Multiobjective Sensor Network Design Algorithm for a Plant with an Estimator-Based Control System

DOE PAGES

Paul, Prokash; Bhattacharyya, Debangsu; Turton, Richard; ...

2017-06-06

Here, a novel sensor network design (SND) algorithm is developed for maximizing process efficiency while minimizing sensor network cost for a nonlinear dynamic process with an estimator-based control system. The multiobjective optimization problem is solved following a lexicographic approach where the process efficiency is maximized first followed by minimization of the sensor network cost. The partial net present value, which combines the capital cost due to the sensor network and the operating cost due to deviation from the optimal efficiency, is proposed as an alternative objective. The unscented Kalman filter is considered as the nonlinear estimator. The large-scale combinatorial optimizationmore » problem is solved using a genetic algorithm. The developed SND algorithm is applied to an acid gas removal (AGR) unit as part of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with CO 2 capture. Due to the computational expense, a reduced order nonlinear model of the AGR process is identified and parallel computation is performed during implementation.« less

Natural mortality estimation and rational exploitation of purpleback flying squid Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis in the southern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuehui; Qiu, Yongsong; Zhang, Peng; Du, Feiyan

2017-07-01

Based on the biological data of purpleback flying squid ( Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) collected by light falling-net in the southern South China Sea (SCS) during September to October 2012 and March to April 2013, growth and mortality of `Medium' and `Dwarf' forms of squid are derived using the Powell-Wetherall, ELEFAN methods and length-converted catch curves (FiSAT package). Given a lack of commercial exploitation, we assume total mortality to be due entirely to natural mortality. We estimate these squid have fast growth, with growth coefficients ( k) ranging from 1.42 to 2.39, and high natural mortality ( M), with estimates ranging from 1.61 to 2.92. To sustainably exploit these squid stocks, yield per recruitment based on growth and natural mortality was determined using the Beverton-Holt dynamic pool model. We demonstrate squid stocks could sustain high fishing mortality and low ages at first capture, with an optimal fishing mortality >3.0, with the optimal age at first capture increased to 0.4-0.6 years when fishing mortality approached optimal levels. On the basis of our analyses and estimates of stock biomass, we believe considerable potential exists to expand the squid fishery into the open SCS, relieving fishing pressure on coastal waters.

Extracting motor synergies from random movements for low-dimensional task-space control of musculoskeletal robots.

PubMed

Fu, Kin Chung Denny; Dalla Libera, Fabio; Ishiguro, Hiroshi

2015-10-08

In the field of human motor control, the motor synergy hypothesis explains how humans simplify body control dimensionality by coordinating groups of muscles, called motor synergies, instead of controlling muscles independently. In most applications of motor synergies to low-dimensional control in robotics, motor synergies are extracted from given optimal control signals. In this paper, we address the problems of how to extract motor synergies without optimal data given, and how to apply motor synergies to achieve low-dimensional task-space tracking control of a human-like robotic arm actuated by redundant muscles, without prior knowledge of the robot. We propose to extract motor synergies from a subset of randomly generated reaching-like movement data. The essence is to first approximate the corresponding optimal control signals, using estimations of the robot's forward dynamics, and to extract the motor synergies subsequently. In order to avoid modeling difficulties, a learning-based control approach is adopted such that control is accomplished via estimations of the robot's inverse dynamics. We present a kernel-based regression formulation to estimate the forward and the inverse dynamics, and a sliding controller in order to cope with estimation error. Numerical evaluations show that the proposed method enables extraction of motor synergies for low-dimensional task-space control.

Optimal linear reconstruction of dark matter from halo catalogues

DOE PAGES

Cai, Yan -Chuan; Bernstein, Gary; Sheth, Ravi K.

2011-04-01

The dark matter lumps (or "halos") that contain galaxies have locations in the Universe that are to some extent random with respect to the overall matter distributions. We investigate how best to estimate the total matter distribution from the locations of the halos. We derive the weight function w(M) to apply to dark-matter haloes that minimizes the stochasticity between the weighted halo distribution and its underlying mass density field. The optimal w(M) depends on the range of masses of halos being used. While the standard biased-Poisson model of the halo distribution predicts that bias weighting is optimal, the simple factmore » that the mass is comprised of haloes implies that the optimal w(M) will be a mixture of mass-weighting and bias-weighting. In N-body simulations, the Poisson estimator is up to 15× noisier than the optimal. Optimal weighting could make cosmological tests based on the matter power spectrum or cross-correlations much more powerful and/or cost effective.« less

Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.; Magadia, Joselito C.

2016-10-01

Accurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. The method is applied to the monthly reported dengue cases in Baguio City, Philippines.

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on the particle swarm optimization and their applications to the predictability problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qin; Yang, Zubin; Sha, Jianxin; Yan, Jun

2017-02-01

In predictability problem research, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) describes the initial perturbation that satisfies a certain constraint condition and causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The CNOP has been successfully applied in estimation of the lower bound of maximum predictable time (LBMPT). Generally, CNOPs are calculated by a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint model, which is called ADJ-CNOP. This study, through the two-dimensional Ikeda model, investigates the impacts of the nonlinearity on ADJ-CNOP and the corresponding precision problems when using ADJ-CNOP to estimate the LBMPT. Our conclusions are that (1) when the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity of the dynamical model in the prediction variable will lead to failure of the ADJ-CNOP method, and (2) when the objective function has multiple extreme values, ADJ-CNOP has a large probability of producing local CNOPs, hence making a false estimation of the LBMPT. Furthermore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, one kind of intelligent algorithm, is introduced to solve this problem. The method using PSO to compute CNOP is called PSO-CNOP. The results of numerical experiments show that even with a large initial perturbation and long prediction time, or when the objective function has multiple extreme values, PSO-CNOP can always obtain the global CNOP. Since the PSO algorithm is a heuristic search algorithm based on the population, it can overcome the impact of nonlinearity and the disturbance from multiple extremes of the objective function. In addition, to check the estimation accuracy of the LBMPT presented by PSO-CNOP and ADJ-CNOP, we partition the constraint domain of initial perturbations into sufficiently fine grid meshes and take the LBMPT obtained by the filtering method as a benchmark. The result shows that the estimation presented by PSO-CNOP is closer to the true value than the one by ADJ-CNOP with the forecast time increasing.

Optimal input shaping for Fisher identifiability of control-oriented lithium-ion battery models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberger, Michael J.

This dissertation examines the fundamental challenge of optimally shaping input trajectories to maximize parameter identifiability of control-oriented lithium-ion battery models. Identifiability is a property from information theory that determines the solvability of parameter estimation for mathematical models using input-output measurements. This dissertation creates a framework that exploits the Fisher information metric to quantify the level of battery parameter identifiability, optimizes this metric through input shaping, and facilitates faster and more accurate estimation. The popularity of lithium-ion batteries is growing significantly in the energy storage domain, especially for stationary and transportation applications. While these cells have excellent power and energy densities, they are plagued with safety and lifespan concerns. These concerns are often resolved in the industry through conservative current and voltage operating limits, which reduce the overall performance and still lack robustness in detecting catastrophic failure modes. New advances in automotive battery management systems mitigate these challenges through the incorporation of model-based control to increase performance, safety, and lifespan. To achieve these goals, model-based control requires accurate parameterization of the battery model. While many groups in the literature study a variety of methods to perform battery parameter estimation, a fundamental issue of poor parameter identifiability remains apparent for lithium-ion battery models. This fundamental challenge of battery identifiability is studied extensively in the literature, and some groups are even approaching the problem of improving the ability to estimate the model parameters. The first approach is to add additional sensors to the battery to gain more information that is used for estimation. The other main approach is to shape the input trajectories to increase the amount of information that can be gained from input-output measurements, and is the approach used in this dissertation. Research in the literature studies optimal current input shaping for high-order electrochemical battery models and focuses on offline laboratory cycling. While this body of research highlights improvements in identifiability through optimal input shaping, each optimal input is a function of nominal parameters, which creates a tautology. The parameter values must be known a priori to determine the optimal input for maximizing estimation speed and accuracy. The system identification literature presents multiple studies containing methods that avoid the challenges of this tautology, but these methods are absent from the battery parameter estimation domain. The gaps in the above literature are addressed in this dissertation through the following five novel and unique contributions. First, this dissertation optimizes the parameter identifiability of a thermal battery model, which Sergio Mendoza experimentally validates through a close collaboration with this dissertation's author. Second, this dissertation extends input-shaping optimization to a linear and nonlinear equivalent-circuit battery model and illustrates the substantial improvements in Fisher identifiability for a periodic optimal signal when compared against automotive benchmark cycles. Third, this dissertation presents an experimental validation study of the simulation work in the previous contribution. The estimation study shows that the automotive benchmark cycles either converge slower than the optimized cycle, or not at all for certain parameters. Fourth, this dissertation examines how automotive battery packs with additional power electronic components that dynamically route current to individual cells/modules can be used for parameter identifiability optimization. While the user and vehicle supervisory controller dictate the current demand for these packs, the optimized internal allocation of current still improves identifiability. Finally, this dissertation presents a robust Bayesian sequential input shaping optimization study to maximize the conditional Fisher information of the battery model parameters without prior knowledge of the nominal parameter set. This iterative algorithm only requires knowledge of the prior parameter distributions to converge to the optimal input trajectory.

Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.

1991-01-01

The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.

Model-Based Optimal Experimental Design for Complex Physical Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-03

for public release. magnitude reduction in estimator error required to make solving the exact optimal design problem tractable. Instead of using a naive...for designing a sequence of experiments uses suboptimal approaches: batch design that has no feedback, or greedy ( myopic ) design that optimally...approved for public release. Equation 1 is difficult to solve directly, but can be expressed in an equivalent form using the principle of dynamic programming

Gradient descent for robust kernel-based regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Zheng-Chu; Hu, Ting; Shi, Lei

2018-06-01

In this paper, we study the gradient descent algorithm generated by a robust loss function over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The loss function is defined by a windowing function G and a scale parameter σ, which can include a wide range of commonly used robust losses for regression. There is still a gap between theoretical analysis and optimization process of empirical risk minimization based on loss: the estimator needs to be global optimal in the theoretical analysis while the optimization method can not ensure the global optimality of its solutions. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing a novel theoretical analysis on the performance of estimators generated by the gradient descent algorithm. We demonstrate that with an appropriately chosen scale parameter σ, the gradient update with early stopping rules can approximate the regression function. Our elegant error analysis can lead to convergence in the standard L 2 norm and the strong RKHS norm, both of which are optimal in the mini-max sense. We show that the scale parameter σ plays an important role in providing robustness as well as fast convergence. The numerical experiments implemented on synthetic examples and real data set also support our theoretical results.

Development of an atmospheric N2O isotopocule model and optimization procedure, and application to source estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishijima, K.; Takigawa, M.; Sudo, K.; Toyoda, S.; Yoshida, N.; Röckmann, T.; Kaiser, J.; Aoki, S.; Morimoto, S.; Sugawara, S.; Nakazawa, T.

2015-07-01

This paper presents the development of an atmospheric N2O isotopocule model based on a chemistry-coupled atmospheric general circulation model (ACTM). We also describe a simple method to optimize the model and present its use in estimating the isotopic signatures of surface sources at the hemispheric scale. Data obtained from ground-based observations, measurements of firn air, and balloon and aircraft flights were used to optimize the long-term trends, interhemispheric gradients, and photolytic fractionation, respectively, in the model. This optimization successfully reproduced realistic spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric N2O isotopocules throughout the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere. The very small gradients associated with vertical profiles through the troposphere and the latitudinal and vertical distributions within each hemisphere were also reasonably simulated. The results of the isotopic characterization of the global total sources were generally consistent with previous one-box model estimates, indicating that the observed atmospheric trend is the dominant factor controlling the source isotopic signature. However, hemispheric estimates were different from those generated by a previous two-box model study, mainly due to the model accounting for the interhemispheric transport and latitudinal and vertical distributions of tropospheric N2O isotopocules. Comparisons of time series of atmospheric N2O isotopocule ratios between our model and observational data from several laboratories revealed the need for a more systematic and elaborate intercalibration of the standard scales used in N2O isotopic measurements in order to capture a more complete and precise picture of the temporal and spatial variations in atmospheric N2O isotopocule ratios. This study highlights the possibility that inverse estimation of surface N2O fluxes, including the isotopic information as additional constraints, could be realized.

Development of an atmospheric N2O isotopocule model and optimization procedure, and application to source estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishijima, K.; Takigawa, M.; Sudo, K.; Toyoda, S.; Yoshida, N.; Röckmann, T.; Kaiser, J.; Aoki, S.; Morimoto, S.; Sugawara, S.; Nakazawa, T.

2015-12-01

This work presents the development of an atmospheric N2O isotopocule model based on a chemistry-coupled atmospheric general circulation model (ACTM). We also describe a simple method to optimize the model and present its use in estimating the isotopic signatures of surface sources at the hemispheric scale. Data obtained from ground-based observations, measurements of firn air, and balloon and aircraft flights were used to optimize the long-term trends, interhemispheric gradients, and photolytic fractionation, respectively, in the model. This optimization successfully reproduced realistic spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric N2O isotopocules throughout the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere. The very small gradients associated with vertical profiles through the troposphere and the latitudinal and vertical distributions within each hemisphere were also reasonably simulated. The results of the isotopic characterization of the global total sources were generally consistent with previous one-box model estimates, indicating that the observed atmospheric trend is the dominant factor controlling the source isotopic signature. However, hemispheric estimates were different from those generated by a previous two-box model study, mainly due to the model accounting for the interhemispheric transport and latitudinal and vertical distributions of tropospheric N2O isotopocules. Comparisons of time series of atmospheric N2O isotopocule ratios between our model and observational data from several laboratories revealed the need for a more systematic and elaborate intercalibration of the standard scales used in N2O isotopic measurements in order to capture a more complete and precise picture of the temporal and spatial variations in atmospheric N2O isotopocule ratios. This study highlights the possibility that inverse estimation of surface N2O fluxes, including the isotopic information as additional constraints, could be realized.

Constraining Night Time Ecosystem Respiration by Inverse Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juang, J.; Stoy, P. C.; Siqueira, M. B.; Katul, G. G.

2004-12-01

Estimating nighttime ecosystem respiration remains a key challenge in quantifying ecosystem carbon budgets. Currently, nighttime eddy-covariance (EC) flux measurements are plagued by uncertainties often attributed to poor mixing within the canopy volume, non-turbulent transport of CO2 into and out of the canopy, and non-stationarity and intermittency. Here, we explore the use of second-order closure models to estimate nighttime ecosystem respiration by mathematically linking sources of CO2 to mean concentration profiles via the continuity and the CO2 flux budget equation modified to include thermal stratification. By forcing this model to match, in a root-mean squared sense, the nighttime measured mean CO2 concentration profiles within the canopy the above ground CO2 production and forest floor respiration can be estimated via multi-dimensional optimization techniques. We show that in a maturing pine and a mature hardwood forest, these optimized CO2 sources are (1) consistently larger than the eddy covariance flux measurements above the canopy, and (2) agree well with chamber-based measurements. We also show that by linking the optimized nighttime ecosystem respiration to temperature measurements, the estimated annual ecosystem respiration from this approach agrees well with biometric estimates, at least when compared to eddy-covariance methods conditioned on a friction velocity threshold. The difference between the annual ecosystem respiration obtained by this optimization method and the friction-velocity thresholded night-time EC fluxes can be as large as 700 g C m-2 (in 2003) for the maturing pine forest, which is about 40% of the ecosystem respiration. For 2001 and 2002, the annual ecosystem respiration differences between the EC-based and the proposed approach were on the order of 300 to 400 g C m-2.

Classification based upon gene expression data: bias and precision of error rates.

PubMed

Wood, Ian A; Visscher, Peter M; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2007-06-01

Gene expression data offer a large number of potentially useful predictors for the classification of tissue samples into classes, such as diseased and non-diseased. The predictive error rate of classifiers can be estimated using methods such as cross-validation. We have investigated issues of interpretation and potential bias in the reporting of error rate estimates. The issues considered here are optimization and selection biases, sampling effects, measures of misclassification rate, baseline error rates, two-level external cross-validation and a novel proposal for detection of bias using the permutation mean. Reporting an optimal estimated error rate incurs an optimization bias. Downward bias of 3-5% was found in an existing study of classification based on gene expression data and may be endemic in similar studies. Using a simulated non-informative dataset and two example datasets from existing studies, we show how bias can be detected through the use of label permutations and avoided using two-level external cross-validation. Some studies avoid optimization bias by using single-level cross-validation and a test set, but error rates can be more accurately estimated via two-level cross-validation. In addition to estimating the simple overall error rate, we recommend reporting class error rates plus where possible the conditional risk incorporating prior class probabilities and a misclassification cost matrix. We also describe baseline error rates derived from three trivial classifiers which ignore the predictors. R code which implements two-level external cross-validation with the PAMR package, experiment code, dataset details and additional figures are freely available for non-commercial use from http://www.maths.qut.edu.au/profiles/wood/permr.jsp

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stry, Greselda I.; Mook, D. Joseph

1991-01-01

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Post-Optimality Analysis In Aerospace Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Robert D.; Kroo, Ilan M.; Gage, Peter J.

1993-01-01

This analysis pertains to the applicability of optimal sensitivity information to aerospace vehicle design. An optimal sensitivity (or post-optimality) analysis refers to computations performed once the initial optimization problem is solved. These computations may be used to characterize the design space about the present solution and infer changes in this solution as a result of constraint or parameter variations, without reoptimizing the entire system. The present analysis demonstrates that post-optimality information generated through first-order computations can be used to accurately predict the effect of constraint and parameter perturbations on the optimal solution. This assessment is based on the solution of an aircraft design problem in which the post-optimality estimates are shown to be within a few percent of the true solution over the practical range of constraint and parameter variations. Through solution of a reusable, single-stage-to-orbit, launch vehicle design problem, this optimal sensitivity information is also shown to improve the efficiency of the design process, For a hierarchically decomposed problem, this computational efficiency is realized by estimating the main-problem objective gradient through optimal sep&ivity calculations, By reducing the need for finite differentiation of a re-optimized subproblem, a significant decrease in the number of objective function evaluations required to reach the optimal solution is obtained.

Design Oriented Structural Modeling for Airplane Conceptual Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Livne, Eli

1999-01-01

The main goal for research conducted with the support of this grant was to develop design oriented structural optimization methods for the conceptual design of airplanes. Traditionally in conceptual design airframe weight is estimated based on statistical equations developed over years of fitting airplane weight data in data bases of similar existing air- planes. Utilization of such regression equations for the design of new airplanes can be justified only if the new air-planes use structural technology similar to the technology on the airplanes in those weight data bases. If any new structural technology is to be pursued or any new unconventional configurations designed the statistical weight equations cannot be used. In such cases any structural weight estimation must be based on rigorous "physics based" structural analysis and optimization of the airframes under consideration. Work under this grant progressed to explore airframe design-oriented structural optimization techniques along two lines of research: methods based on "fast" design oriented finite element technology and methods based on equivalent plate / equivalent shell models of airframes, in which the vehicle is modelled as an assembly of plate and shell components, each simulating a lifting surface or nacelle / fuselage pieces. Since response to changes in geometry are essential in conceptual design of airplanes, as well as the capability to optimize the shape itself, research supported by this grant sought to develop efficient techniques for parametrization of airplane shape and sensitivity analysis with respect to shape design variables. Towards the end of the grant period a prototype automated structural analysis code designed to work with the NASA Aircraft Synthesis conceptual design code ACS= was delivered to NASA Ames.

Field design factors affecting the precision of ryegrass forage yield estimation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Field-based agronomic and genetic research relies heavily on the data generated from field evaluations. Therefore, it is imperative to optimize the precision and accuracy of yield estimates in cultivar evaluation trials to make reliable selections. Experimental error in yield trials is sensitive to ...

QUADRO: A SUPERVISED DIMENSION REDUCTION METHOD VIA RAYLEIGH QUOTIENT OPTIMIZATION

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Ke, Zheng Tracy; Liu, Han; Xia, Lucy

2016-01-01

We propose a novel Rayleigh quotient based sparse quadratic dimension reduction method—named QUADRO (Quadratic Dimension Reduction via Rayleigh Optimization)—for analyzing high-dimensional data. Unlike in the linear setting where Rayleigh quotient optimization coincides with classification, these two problems are very different under nonlinear settings. In this paper, we clarify this difference and show that Rayleigh quotient optimization may be of independent scientific interests. One major challenge of Rayleigh quotient optimization is that the variance of quadratic statistics involves all fourth cross-moments of predictors, which are infeasible to compute for high-dimensional applications and may accumulate too many stochastic errors. This issue is resolved by considering a family of elliptical models. Moreover, for heavy-tail distributions, robust estimates of mean vectors and covariance matrices are employed to guarantee uniform convergence in estimating non-polynomially many parameters, even though only the fourth moments are assumed. Methodologically, QUADRO is based on elliptical models which allow us to formulate the Rayleigh quotient maximization as a convex optimization problem. Computationally, we propose an efficient linearized augmented Lagrangian method to solve the constrained optimization problem. Theoretically, we provide explicit rates of convergence in terms of Rayleigh quotient under both Gaussian and general elliptical models. Thorough numerical results on both synthetic and real datasets are also provided to back up our theoretical results. PMID:26778864

Learning Motion Features for Example-Based Finger Motion Estimation for Virtual Characters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousas, Christos; Anagnostopoulos, Christos-Nikolaos

2017-09-01

This paper presents a methodology for estimating the motion of a character's fingers based on the use of motion features provided by a virtual character's hand. In the presented methodology, firstly, the motion data is segmented into discrete phases. Then, a number of motion features are computed for each motion segment of a character's hand. The motion features are pre-processed using restricted Boltzmann machines, and by using the different variations of semantically similar finger gestures in a support vector machine learning mechanism, the optimal weights for each feature assigned to a metric are computed. The advantages of the presented methodology in comparison to previous solutions are the following: First, we automate the computation of optimal weights that are assigned to each motion feature counted in our metric. Second, the presented methodology achieves an increase (about 17%) in correctly estimated finger gestures in comparison to a previous method.

Baseline estimation in flame's spectra by using neural networks and robust statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garces, Hugo; Arias, Luis; Rojas, Alejandro

2014-09-01

This work presents a baseline estimation method in flame spectra based on artificial intelligence structure as a neural network, combining robust statistics with multivariate analysis to automatically discriminate measured wavelengths belonging to continuous feature for model adaptation, surpassing restriction of measuring target baseline for training. The main contributions of this paper are: to analyze a flame spectra database computing Jolliffe statistics from Principal Components Analysis detecting wavelengths not correlated with most of the measured data corresponding to baseline; to systematically determine the optimal number of neurons in hidden layers based on Akaike's Final Prediction Error; to estimate baseline in full wavelength range sampling measured spectra; and to train an artificial intelligence structure as a Neural Network which allows to generalize the relation between measured and baseline spectra. The main application of our research is to compute total radiation with baseline information, allowing to diagnose combustion process state for optimization in early stages.

Statistically optimal estimation of Greenland Ice Sheet mass variations from GRACE monthly solutions using an improved mascon approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, J.; Ditmar, P.; Klees, R.; Farahani, H. H.

2018-03-01

We present an improved mascon approach to transform monthly spherical harmonic solutions based on GRACE satellite data into mass anomaly estimates in Greenland. The GRACE-based spherical harmonic coefficients are used to synthesize gravity anomalies at satellite altitude, which are then inverted into mass anomalies per mascon. The limited spectral content of the gravity anomalies is properly accounted for by applying a low-pass filter as part of the inversion procedure to make the functional model spectrally consistent with the data. The full error covariance matrices of the monthly GRACE solutions are properly propagated using the law of covariance propagation. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the importance of a proper data weighting and of the spectral consistency between functional model and data. The developed methodology is applied to process real GRACE level-2 data (CSR RL05). The obtained mass anomaly estimates are integrated over five drainage systems, as well as over entire Greenland. We find that the statistically optimal data weighting reduces random noise by 35-69%, depending on the drainage system. The obtained mass anomaly time-series are de-trended to eliminate the contribution of ice discharge and are compared with de-trended surface mass balance (SMB) time-series computed with the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO 2.3). We show that when using a statistically optimal data weighting in GRACE data processing, the discrepancies between GRACE-based estimates of SMB and modelled SMB are reduced by 24-47%.

Effect of random errors in planar PIV data on pressure estimation in vortex dominated flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure, Jeffrey; Yarusevych, Serhiy

2015-11-01

The sensitivity of pressure estimation techniques from Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements to random errors in measured velocity data is investigated using the flow over a circular cylinder as a test case. Direct numerical simulations are performed for ReD = 100, 300 and 1575, spanning laminar, transitional, and turbulent wake regimes, respectively. A range of random errors typical for PIV measurements is applied to synthetic PIV data extracted from numerical results. A parametric study is then performed using a number of common pressure estimation techniques. Optimal temporal and spatial resolutions are derived based on the sensitivity of the estimated pressure fields to the simulated random error in velocity measurements, and the results are compared to an optimization model derived from error propagation theory. It is shown that the reductions in spatial and temporal scales at higher Reynolds numbers leads to notable changes in the optimal pressure evaluation parameters. The effect of smaller scale wake structures is also quantified. The errors in the estimated pressure fields are shown to depend significantly on the pressure estimation technique employed. The results are used to provide recommendations for the use of pressure and force estimation techniques from experimental PIV measurements in vortex dominated laminar and turbulent wake flows.

Receiver-Coupling Schemes Based On Optimal-Estimation Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Rajendra

1992-01-01

Two schemes for reception of weak radio signals conveying digital data via phase modulation provide for mutual coupling of multiple receivers, and coherent combination of outputs of receivers. In both schemes, optimal mutual-coupling weights computed according to Kalman-filter theory, but differ in manner of transmission and combination of outputs of receivers.

Optimal Combinations of Diagnostic Tests Based on AUC.

PubMed

Huang, Xin; Qin, Gengsheng; Fang, Yixin

2011-06-01

When several diagnostic tests are available, one can combine them to achieve better diagnostic accuracy. This article considers the optimal linear combination that maximizes the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); the estimates of the combination's coefficients can be obtained via a nonparametric procedure. However, for estimating the AUC associated with the estimated coefficients, the apparent estimation by re-substitution is too optimistic. To adjust for the upward bias, several methods are proposed. Among them the cross-validation approach is especially advocated, and an approximated cross-validation is developed to reduce the computational cost. Furthermore, these proposed methods can be applied for variable selection to select important diagnostic tests. The proposed methods are examined through simulation studies and applications to three real examples. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

Design Optimization of Gas Generator Hybrid Propulsion Boosters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weldon, Vincent; Phillips, Dwight; Fink, Larry

1990-01-01

A methodology used in support of a study for NASA/MSFC to optimize the design of gas generator hybrid propulsion booster for uprating the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) is presented. The objective was to compare alternative configurations for this booster approach, optimizing each candidate concept on different bases, in order to develop data for a trade table on which a final decision was based. The methodology is capable of processing a large number of independent and dependent variables, adjusting the overall subsystems characteristics to arrive at a best compromise integrated design to meet various specific optimization criteria subject to selected constraints. For each system considered, a detailed weight statement was generated along with preliminary cost and reliability estimates.

Pharmacokinetic design optimization in children and estimation of maturation parameters: example of cytochrome P450 3A4.

PubMed

Bouillon-Pichault, Marion; Jullien, Vincent; Bazzoli, Caroline; Pons, Gérard; Tod, Michel

2011-02-01

The aim of this work was to determine whether optimizing the study design in terms of ages and sampling times for a drug eliminated solely via cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4) would allow us to accurately estimate the pharmacokinetic parameters throughout the entire childhood timespan, while taking into account age- and weight-related changes. A linear monocompartmental model with first-order absorption was used successively with three different residual error models and previously published pharmacokinetic parameters ("true values"). The optimal ages were established by D-optimization using the CYP3A4 maturation function to create "optimized demographic databases." The post-dose times for each previously selected age were determined by D-optimization using the pharmacokinetic model to create "optimized sparse sampling databases." We simulated concentrations by applying the population pharmacokinetic model to the optimized sparse sampling databases to create optimized concentration databases. The latter were modeled to estimate population pharmacokinetic parameters. We then compared true and estimated parameter values. The established optimal design comprised four age ranges: 0.008 years old (i.e., around 3 days), 0.192 years old (i.e., around 2 months), 1.325 years old, and adults, with the same number of subjects per group and three or four samples per subject, in accordance with the error model. The population pharmacokinetic parameters that we estimated with this design were precise and unbiased (root mean square error [RMSE] and mean prediction error [MPE] less than 11% for clearance and distribution volume and less than 18% for k(a)), whereas the maturation parameters were unbiased but less precise (MPE < 6% and RMSE < 37%). Based on our results, taking growth and maturation into account a priori in a pediatric pharmacokinetic study is theoretically feasible. However, it requires that very early ages be included in studies, which may present an obstacle to the use of this approach. First-pass effects, alternative elimination routes, and combined elimination pathways should also be investigated.

Teaching-learning-based Optimization Algorithm for Parameter Identification in the Design of IIR Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R.; Verma, H. K.

2013-12-01

This paper presents a teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO) algorithm to solve parameter identification problems in the designing of digital infinite impulse response (IIR) filter. TLBO based filter modelling is applied to calculate the parameters of unknown plant in simulations. Unlike other heuristic search algorithms, TLBO algorithm is an algorithm-specific parameter-less algorithm. In this paper big bang-big crunch (BB-BC) optimization and PSO algorithms are also applied to filter design for comparison. Unknown filter parameters are considered as a vector to be optimized by these algorithms. MATLAB programming is used for implementation of proposed algorithms. Experimental results show that the TLBO is more accurate to estimate the filter parameters than the BB-BC optimization algorithm and has faster convergence rate when compared to PSO algorithm. TLBO is used where accuracy is more essential than the convergence speed.

Information fusion based optimal control for large civil aircraft system.

PubMed

Zhen, Ziyang; Jiang, Ju; Wang, Xinhua; Gao, Chen

2015-03-01

Wind disturbance has a great influence on landing security of Large Civil Aircraft. Through simulation research and engineering experience, it can be found that PID control is not good enough to solve the problem of restraining the wind disturbance. This paper focuses on anti-wind attitude control for Large Civil Aircraft in landing phase. In order to improve the riding comfort and the flight security, an information fusion based optimal control strategy is presented to restrain the wind in landing phase for maintaining attitudes and airspeed. Data of Boeing707 is used to establish a nonlinear mode with total variables of Large Civil Aircraft, and then two linear models are obtained which are divided into longitudinal and lateral equations. Based on engineering experience, the longitudinal channel adopts PID control and C inner control to keep longitudinal attitude constant, and applies autothrottle system for keeping airspeed constant, while an information fusion based optimal regulator in the lateral control channel is designed to achieve lateral attitude holding. According to information fusion estimation, by fusing hard constraint information of system dynamic equations and the soft constraint information of performance index function, optimal estimation of the control sequence is derived. Based on this, an information fusion state regulator is deduced for discrete time linear system with disturbance. The simulation results of nonlinear model of aircraft indicate that the information fusion optimal control is better than traditional PID control, LQR control and LQR control with integral action, in anti-wind disturbance performance in the landing phase. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-02-01

In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

Multiobjective optimization design of an rf gun based electron diffraction beam line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliford, Colwyn; Bartnik, Adam; Bazarov, Ivan; Maxson, Jared

2017-03-01

Multiobjective genetic algorithm optimizations of a single-shot ultrafast electron diffraction beam line comprised of a 100 MV /m 1.6-cell normal conducting rf (NCRF) gun, as well as a nine-cell 2 π /3 bunching cavity placed between two solenoids, have been performed. These include optimization of the normalized transverse emittance as a function of bunch charge, as well as optimization of the transverse coherence length as a function of the rms bunch length of the beam at the sample location for a fixed charge of 1 06 electrons. Analysis of the resulting solutions is discussed in terms of the relevant scaling laws, and a detailed description of one of the resulting solutions from the coherence length optimizations is given. For a charge of 1 06 electrons and final beam sizes of σx≥25 μ m and σt≈5 fs , we found a relative coherence length of Lc ,x/σx≈0.07 using direct optimization of the coherence length. Additionally, based on optimizations of the emittance as a function of final bunch length, we estimate the relative coherence length for bunch lengths of 30 and 100 fs to be roughly 0.1 and 0.2 nm /μ m , respectively. Finally, using the scaling of the optimal emittance with bunch charge, for a charge of 1 05 electrons, we estimate relative coherence lengths of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.92 nm /μ m for final bunch lengths of 5, 30 and 100 fs, respectively.

Specificity control for read alignments using an artificial reference genome-guided false discovery rate.

PubMed

Giese, Sven H; Zickmann, Franziska; Renard, Bernhard Y

2014-01-01

Accurate estimation, comparison and evaluation of read mapping error rates is a crucial step in the processing of next-generation sequencing data, as further analysis steps and interpretation assume the correctness of the mapping results. Current approaches are either focused on sensitivity estimation and thereby disregard specificity or are based on read simulations. Although continuously improving, read simulations are still prone to introduce a bias into the mapping error quantitation and cannot capture all characteristics of an individual dataset. We introduce ARDEN (artificial reference driven estimation of false positives in next-generation sequencing data), a novel benchmark method that estimates error rates of read mappers based on real experimental reads, using an additionally generated artificial reference genome. It allows a dataset-specific computation of error rates and the construction of a receiver operating characteristic curve. Thereby, it can be used for optimization of parameters for read mappers, selection of read mappers for a specific problem or for filtering alignments based on quality estimation. The use of ARDEN is demonstrated in a general read mapper comparison, a parameter optimization for one read mapper and an application example in single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery with a significant reduction in the number of false positive identifications. The ARDEN source code is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/arden/.

Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method.

PubMed

Polidori, David; Rowley, Clarence

2014-07-22

The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method.

Spatio-Temporal Field Estimation Using Kriged Kalman Filter (KKF) with Sparsity-Enforcing Sensor Placement.

PubMed

Roy, Venkat; Simonetto, Andrea; Leus, Geert

2018-06-01

We propose a sensor placement method for spatio-temporal field estimation based on a kriged Kalman filter (KKF) using a network of static or mobile sensors. The developed framework dynamically designs the optimal constellation to place the sensors. We combine the estimation error (for the stationary as well as non-stationary component of the field) minimization problem with a sparsity-enforcing penalty to design the optimal sensor constellation in an economic manner. The developed sensor placement method can be directly used for a general class of covariance matrices (ill-conditioned or well-conditioned) modelling the spatial variability of the stationary component of the field, which acts as a correlated observation noise, while estimating the non-stationary component of the field. Finally, a KKF estimator is used to estimate the field using the measurements from the selected sensing locations. Numerical results are provided to exhibit the feasibility of the proposed dynamic sensor placement followed by the KKF estimation method.

Optimal Mass Transport for Statistical Estimation, Image Analysis, Information Geometry, and Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-10

Metric Uncertainty for Spectral Estimation based on Nevanlinna-Pick Interpolation, (with J. Karlsson) Intern. Symp. on the Math . Theory of Networks and...Systems, Melbourne 2012. 22. Geometric tools for the estimation of structured covariances, (with L. Ning, X. Jiang) Intern. Symposium on the Math . Theory...estimation and the reversibility of stochastic processes, (with Y. Chen, J. Karlsson) Proc. Int. Symp. on Math . Theory of Networks and Syst., July

Practical state of health estimation of power batteries based on Delphi method and grey relational grade analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bingxiang; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zheng, Fangdan; Zhao, Wei; Liaw, Bor Yann; Ruan, Haijun; Han, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Weige

2015-05-01

The state of health (SOH) estimation is very critical to battery management system to ensure the safety and reliability of EV battery operation. Here, we used a unique hybrid approach to enable complex SOH estimations. The approach hybridizes the Delphi method known for its simplicity and effectiveness in applying weighting factors for complicated decision-making and the grey relational grade analysis (GRGA) for multi-factor optimization. Six critical factors were used in the consideration for SOH estimation: peak power at 30% state-of-charge (SOC), capacity, the voltage drop at 30% SOC with a C/3 pulse, the temperature rises at the end of discharge and charge at 1C; respectively, and the open circuit voltage at the end of charge after 1-h rest. The weighting of these factors for SOH estimation was scored by the 'experts' in the Delphi method, indicating the influencing power of each factor on SOH. The parameters for these factors expressing the battery state variations are optimized by GRGA. Eight battery cells were used to illustrate the principle and methodology to estimate the SOH by this hybrid approach, and the results were compared with those based on capacity and power capability. The contrast among different SOH estimations is discussed.

Reexamination of optimal quantum state estimation of pure states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayashi, A.; Hashimoto, T.; Horibe, M.

2005-09-15

A direct derivation is given for the optimal mean fidelity of quantum state estimation of a d-dimensional unknown pure state with its N copies given as input, which was first obtained by Hayashi in terms of an infinite set of covariant positive operator valued measures (POVM's) and by Bruss and Macchiavello establishing a connection to optimal quantum cloning. An explicit condition for POVM measurement operators for optimal estimators is obtained, by which we construct optimal estimators with finite POVMs using exact quadratures on a hypersphere. These finite optimal estimators are not generally universal, where universality means the fidelity is independentmore » of input states. However, any optimal estimator with finite POVM for M(>N) copies is universal if it is used for N copies as input.« less

Comparison of bootstrap approaches for estimation of uncertainties of DTI parameters.

PubMed

Chung, SungWon; Lu, Ying; Henry, Roland G

2006-11-01

Bootstrap is an empirical non-parametric statistical technique based on data resampling that has been used to quantify uncertainties of diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) parameters, useful in tractography and in assessing DTI methods. The current bootstrap method (repetition bootstrap) used for DTI analysis performs resampling within the data sharing common diffusion gradients, requiring multiple acquisitions for each diffusion gradient. Recently, wild bootstrap was proposed that can be applied without multiple acquisitions. In this paper, two new approaches are introduced called residual bootstrap and repetition bootknife. We show that repetition bootknife corrects for the large bias present in the repetition bootstrap method and, therefore, better estimates the standard errors. Like wild bootstrap, residual bootstrap is applicable to single acquisition scheme, and both are based on regression residuals (called model-based resampling). Residual bootstrap is based on the assumption that non-constant variance of measured diffusion-attenuated signals can be modeled, which is actually the assumption behind the widely used weighted least squares solution of diffusion tensor. The performances of these bootstrap approaches were compared in terms of bias, variance, and overall error of bootstrap-estimated standard error by Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that residual bootstrap has smaller biases and overall errors, which enables estimation of uncertainties with higher accuracy. Understanding the properties of these bootstrap procedures will help us to choose the optimal approach for estimating uncertainties that can benefit hypothesis testing based on DTI parameters, probabilistic fiber tracking, and optimizing DTI methods.

A distributed, dynamic, parallel computational model: the role of noise in velocity storage

PubMed Central

Merfeld, Daniel M.

2012-01-01

Networks of neurons perform complex calculations using distributed, parallel computation, including dynamic “real-time” calculations required for motion control. The brain must combine sensory signals to estimate the motion of body parts using imperfect information from noisy neurons. Models and experiments suggest that the brain sometimes optimally minimizes the influence of noise, although it remains unclear when and precisely how neurons perform such optimal computations. To investigate, we created a model of velocity storage based on a relatively new technique–“particle filtering”–that is both distributed and parallel. It extends existing observer and Kalman filter models of vestibular processing by simulating the observer model many times in parallel with noise added. During simulation, the variance of the particles defining the estimator state is used to compute the particle filter gain. We applied our model to estimate one-dimensional angular velocity during yaw rotation, which yielded estimates for the velocity storage time constant, afferent noise, and perceptual noise that matched experimental data. We also found that the velocity storage time constant was Bayesian optimal by comparing the estimate of our particle filter with the estimate of the Kalman filter, which is optimal. The particle filter demonstrated a reduced velocity storage time constant when afferent noise increased, which mimics what is known about aminoglycoside ablation of semicircular canal hair cells. This model helps bridge the gap between parallel distributed neural computation and systems-level behavioral responses like the vestibuloocular response and perception. PMID:22514288

Non-Rigid Structure Estimation in Trajectory Space from Monocular Vision

PubMed Central

Wang, Yaming; Tong, Lingling; Jiang, Mingfeng; Zheng, Junbao

2015-01-01

In this paper, the problem of non-rigid structure estimation in trajectory space from monocular vision is investigated. Similar to the Point Trajectory Approach (PTA), based on characteristic points’ trajectories described by a predefined Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) basis, the structure matrix was also calculated by using a factorization method. To further optimize the non-rigid structure estimation from monocular vision, the rank minimization problem about structure matrix is proposed to implement the non-rigid structure estimation by introducing the basic low-rank condition. Moreover, the Accelerated Proximal Gradient (APG) algorithm is proposed to solve the rank minimization problem, and the initial structure matrix calculated by the PTA method is optimized. The APG algorithm can converge to efficient solutions quickly and lessen the reconstruction error obviously. The reconstruction results of real image sequences indicate that the proposed approach runs reliably, and effectively improves the accuracy of non-rigid structure estimation from monocular vision. PMID:26473863

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

PubMed

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data*

PubMed Central

Cai, T. Tony; Zhang, Anru

2016-01-01

Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data. PMID:27777471

Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data.

PubMed

Cai, T Tony; Zhang, Anru

2016-09-01

Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data.

Active marks structure optimization for optical-electronic systems of spatial position control of industrial objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sycheva, Elena A.; Vasilev, Aleksandr S.; Lashmanov, Oleg U.; Korotaev, Valery V.

2017-06-01

The article is devoted to the optimization of optoelectronic systems of the spatial position of objects. Probabilistic characteristics of the detection of an active structured mark on a random noisy background are investigated. The developed computer model and the results of the study allow us to estimate the probabilistic characteristics of detection of a complex structured mark on a random gradient background, and estimate the error of spatial coordinates. The results of the study make it possible to improve the accuracy of measuring the coordinates of the object. Based on the research recommendations are given on the choice of parameters of the optimal mark structure for use in opticalelectronic systems for monitoring the spatial position of large-sized structures.

A control-theory model for human decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

1971-01-01

A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

Distributed State Estimation Using a Modified Partitioned Moving Horizon Strategy for Power Systems.

PubMed

Chen, Tengpeng; Foo, Yi Shyh Eddy; Ling, K V; Chen, Xuebing

2017-10-11

In this paper, a distributed state estimation method based on moving horizon estimation (MHE) is proposed for the large-scale power system state estimation. The proposed method partitions the power systems into several local areas with non-overlapping states. Unlike the centralized approach where all measurements are sent to a processing center, the proposed method distributes the state estimation task to the local processing centers where local measurements are collected. Inspired by the partitioned moving horizon estimation (PMHE) algorithm, each local area solves a smaller optimization problem to estimate its own local states by using local measurements and estimated results from its neighboring areas. In contrast with PMHE, the error from the process model is ignored in our method. The proposed modified PMHE (mPMHE) approach can also take constraints on states into account during the optimization process such that the influence of the outliers can be further mitigated. Simulation results on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems verify that our method achieves comparable state estimation accuracy but with a significant reduction in the overall computation load.

Prospective regularization design in prior-image-based reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, Hao; Siewerdsen, Jeffrey H.; Webster Stayman, J.

2015-12-01

Prior-image-based reconstruction (PIBR) methods leveraging patient-specific anatomical information from previous imaging studies and/or sequences have demonstrated dramatic improvements in dose utilization and image quality for low-fidelity data. However, a proper balance of information from the prior images and information from the measurements is required (e.g. through careful tuning of regularization parameters). Inappropriate selection of reconstruction parameters can lead to detrimental effects including false structures and failure to improve image quality. Traditional methods based on heuristics are subject to error and sub-optimal solutions, while exhaustive searches require a large number of computationally intensive image reconstructions. In this work, we propose a novel method that prospectively estimates the optimal amount of prior image information for accurate admission of specific anatomical changes in PIBR without performing full image reconstructions. This method leverages an analytical approximation to the implicitly defined PIBR estimator, and introduces a predictive performance metric leveraging this analytical form and knowledge of a particular presumed anatomical change whose accurate reconstruction is sought. Additionally, since model-based PIBR approaches tend to be space-variant, a spatially varying prior image strength map is proposed to optimally admit changes everywhere in the image (eliminating the need to know change locations a priori). Studies were conducted in both an ellipse phantom and a realistic thorax phantom emulating a lung nodule surveillance scenario. The proposed method demonstrated accurate estimation of the optimal prior image strength while achieving a substantial computational speedup (about a factor of 20) compared to traditional exhaustive search. Moreover, the use of the proposed prior strength map in PIBR demonstrated accurate reconstruction of anatomical changes without foreknowledge of change locations in phantoms where the optimal parameters vary spatially by an order of magnitude or more. In a series of studies designed to explore potential unknowns associated with accurate PIBR, optimal prior image strength was found to vary with attenuation differences associated with anatomical change but exhibited only small variations as a function of the shape and size of the change. The results suggest that, given a target change attenuation, prospective patient-, change-, and data-specific customization of the prior image strength can be performed to ensure reliable reconstruction of specific anatomical changes.

Underestimation of Project Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Spline approximations for nonlinear hereditary control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniel, P. L.

1982-01-01

A sline-based approximation scheme is discussed for optimal control problems governed by nonlinear nonautonomous delay differential equations. The approximating framework reduces the original control problem to a sequence of optimization problems governed by ordinary differential equations. Convergence proofs, which appeal directly to dissipative-type estimates for the underlying nonlinear operator, are given and numerical findings are summarized.

Drug-drug interaction predictions with PBPK models and optimal multiresponse sampling time designs: application to midazolam and a phase I compound. Part 1: comparison of uniresponse and multiresponse designs using PopDes.

PubMed

Chenel, Marylore; Bouzom, François; Aarons, Leon; Ogungbenro, Kayode

2008-12-01

To determine the optimal sampling time design of a drug-drug interaction (DDI) study for the estimation of apparent clearances (CL/F) of two co-administered drugs (SX, a phase I compound, potentially a CYP3A4 inhibitor, and MDZ, a reference CYP3A4 substrate) without any in vivo data using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) predictions, population PK modelling and multiresponse optimal design. PBPK models were developed with AcslXtreme using only in vitro data to simulate PK profiles of both drugs when they were co-administered. Then, using simulated data, population PK models were developed with NONMEM and optimal sampling times were determined by optimizing the determinant of the population Fisher information matrix with PopDes using either two uniresponse designs (UD) or a multiresponse design (MD) with joint sampling times for both drugs. Finally, the D-optimal sampling time designs were evaluated by simulation and re-estimation with NONMEM by computing the relative root mean squared error (RMSE) and empirical relative standard errors (RSE) of CL/F. There were four and five optimal sampling times (=nine different sampling times) in the UDs for SX and MDZ, respectively, whereas there were only five sampling times in the MD. Whatever design and compound, CL/F was well estimated (RSE < 20% for MDZ and <25% for SX) and expected RSEs from PopDes were in the same range as empirical RSEs. Moreover, there was no bias in CL/F estimation. Since MD required only five sampling times compared to the two UDs, D-optimal sampling times of the MD were included into a full empirical design for the proposed clinical trial. A joint paper compares the designs with real data. This global approach including PBPK simulations, population PK modelling and multiresponse optimal design allowed, without any in vivo data, the design of a clinical trial, using sparse sampling, capable of estimating CL/F of the CYP3A4 substrate and potential inhibitor when co-administered together.

Unsteady flow sensing and optimal sensor placement using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semaan, Richard

2016-11-01

Machine learning is used to estimate the flow state and to determine the optimal sensor placement over a two-dimensional (2D) airfoil equipped with a Coanda actuator. The analysis is based on flow field data obtained from 2D unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (uRANS) simulations with different jet blowing intensities and actuation frequencies, characterizing different flow separation states. This study shows how the "random forests" algorithm is utilized beyond its typical usage in fluid mechanics estimating the flow state to determine the optimal sensor placement. The results are compared against the current de-facto standard of maximum modal amplitude location and against a brute force approach that scans all possible sensor combinations. The results show that it is possible to simultaneously infer the state of flow and to determine the optimal sensor location without the need to perform proper orthogonal decomposition. Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 880, DFG.

Optimization of Crew Shielding Requirement in Reactor-Powered Lunar Surface Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.

2007-01-01

On the surface of the moon -and not only during heightened solar activities- the radiation environment As such that crew protection will be required for missions lasting in excess of six months. This study focuses on estimating the optimized crew shielding requirement for lunar surface missions with a nuclear option. Simple, transport-simulation based dose-depth relations of the three (galactic, solar, and fission) radiation sources am employed in a 1-dimensional optimization scheme. The scheme is developed to estimate the total required mass of lunar-regolith separating reactor from crew. The scheme was applied to both solar maximum and minimum conditions. It is shown that savings of up to 30% in regolith mass can be realized. It is argued, however, that inherent variation and uncertainty -mainly in lunar regolith attenuation properties in addition to the radiation quality factor- can easily defeat this and similar optimization schemes.

Optimization of Crew Shielding Requirement in Reactor-Powered Lunar Surface Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barghouty, A. F.

2007-01-01

On the surface of the moon and not only during heightened solar activities the radiation environment is such that crew protection will be required for missions lasting in excess of six months. This study focuses on estimating the optimized crew shielding requirement for lunar surface missions with a nuclear option. Simple, transport-simulation based dose-depth relations of the three radiation sources (galactic, solar, and fission) are employed in a one-dimensional optimization scheme. The scheme is developed to estimate the total required mass of lunar regolith separating reactor from crew. The scheme was applied to both solar maximum and minimum conditions. It is shown that savings of up to 30% in regolith mass can be realized. It is argued, however, that inherent variation and uncertainty mainly in lunar regolith attenuation properties in addition to the radiation quality factor can easily defeat this and similar optimization schemes.

A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Barlow, Paul M.; Welter, Dave E.

2018-01-01

To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.

Fusing Satellite-Derived Irradiance and Point Measurements through Optimal Interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo, A.; Morzfeld, M.; Holmgren, W.; Cronin, A.

2016-12-01

Satellite-derived irradiance is widely used throughout the design and operation of a solar power plant. While satellite-derived estimates cover a large area, they also have large errors compared to point measurements from sensors on the ground. We describe an optimal interpolation routine that fuses the broad spatial coverage of satellite-derived irradiance with the high accuracy of point measurements. The routine can be applied to any satellite-derived irradiance and point measurement datasets. Unique aspects of this work include the fact that information is spread using cloud location and thickness and that a number of point measurements are collected from rooftop PV systems. The routine is sensitive to errors in the satellite image geolocation, so care must be taken to adjust the cloud locations based on the solar and satellite geometries. Analysis of the optimal interpolation routine over Tucson, AZ, with 20 point measurements shows a significant improvement in the irradiance estimate for two distinct satellite image to irradiance algorithms. Improved irradiance estimates can be used for resource assessment, distributed generation production estimates, and irradiance forecasts.

Branch and bound algorithm for accurate estimation of analytical isotropic bidirectional reflectance distribution function models.

PubMed

Yu, Chanki; Lee, Sang Wook

2016-05-20

We present a reliable and accurate global optimization framework for estimating parameters of isotropic analytical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models. This approach is based on a branch and bound strategy with linear programming and interval analysis. Conventional local optimization is often very inefficient for BRDF estimation since its fitting quality is highly dependent on initial guesses due to the nonlinearity of analytical BRDF models. The algorithm presented in this paper employs L₁-norm error minimization to estimate BRDF parameters in a globally optimal way and interval arithmetic to derive our feasibility problem and lower bounding function. Our method is developed for the Cook-Torrance model but with several normal distribution functions such as the Beckmann, Berry, and GGX functions. Experiments have been carried out to validate the presented method using 100 isotropic materials from the MERL BRDF database, and our experimental results demonstrate that the L₁-norm minimization provides a more accurate and reliable solution than the L₂-norm minimization.

Estimation of key parameters in adaptive neuron model according to firing patterns based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chunhua; Wang, Jiang; Yi, Guosheng

2017-03-01

Estimation of ion channel parameters is crucial to spike initiation of neurons. The biophysical neuron models have numerous ion channel parameters, but only a few of them play key roles in the firing patterns of the models. So we choose three parameters featuring the adaptation in the Ermentrout neuron model to be estimated. However, the traditional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is still easy to fall into local optimum and has the premature convergence phenomenon in the study of some problems. In this paper, we propose an improved method that uses a concave function and dynamic logistic chaotic mapping mixed to adjust the inertia weights of the fitness value, effectively improve the global convergence ability of the algorithm. The perfect predicting firing trajectories of the rebuilt model using the estimated parameters prove that only estimating a few important ion channel parameters can establish the model well and the proposed algorithm is effective. Estimations using two classic PSO algorithms are also compared to the improved PSO to verify that the algorithm proposed in this paper can avoid local optimum and quickly converge to the optimal value. The results provide important theoretical foundations for building biologically realistic neuron models.

Spectral imaging using consumer-level devices and kernel-based regression.

PubMed

Heikkinen, Ville; Cámara, Clara; Hirvonen, Tapani; Penttinen, Niko

2016-06-01

Hyperspectral reflectance factor image estimations were performed in the 400-700 nm wavelength range using a portable consumer-level laptop display as an adjustable light source for a trichromatic camera. Targets of interest were ColorChecker Classic samples, Munsell Matte samples, geometrically challenging tempera icon paintings from the turn of the 20th century, and human hands. Measurements and simulations were performed using Nikon D80 RGB camera and Dell Vostro 2520 laptop screen as a light source. Estimations were performed without spectral characteristics of the devices and by emphasizing simplicity for training sets and estimation model optimization. Spectral and color error images are shown for the estimations using line-scanned hyperspectral images as the ground truth. Estimations were performed using kernel-based regression models via a first-degree inhomogeneous polynomial kernel and a Matérn kernel, where in the latter case the median heuristic approach for model optimization and link function for bounded estimation were evaluated. Results suggest modest requirements for a training set and show that all estimation models have markedly improved accuracy with respect to the DE00 color distance (up to 99% for paintings and hands) and the Pearson distance (up to 98% for paintings and 99% for hands) from a weak training set (Digital ColorChecker SG) case when small representative training data were used in the estimation.

Linear Parameter Varying Control Synthesis for Actuator Failure, Based on Estimated Parameter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Wu, N. Eva; Belcastro, Christine

2002-01-01

The design of a linear parameter varying (LPV) controller for an aircraft at actuator failure cases is presented. The controller synthesis for actuator failure cases is formulated into linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimizations based on an estimated failure parameter with pre-defined estimation error bounds. The inherent conservatism of an LPV control synthesis methodology is reduced using a scaling factor on the uncertainty block which represents estimated parameter uncertainties. The fault parameter is estimated using the two-stage Kalman filter. The simulation results of the designed LPV controller for a HiMXT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle with the on-line estimator show that the desired performance and robustness objectives are achieved for actuator failure cases.

Optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies of the partner drugs co-administered with artemisinin derivatives in patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Jamsen, Kris M; Duffull, Stephen B; Tarning, Joel; Lindegardh, Niklas; White, Nicholas J; Simpson, Julie A

2012-07-11

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently recommended as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria, but of concern, it has been observed that the effectiveness of the main artemisinin derivative, artesunate, has been diminished due to parasite resistance. This reduction in effect highlights the importance of the partner drugs in ACT and provides motivation to gain more knowledge of their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties via population PK studies. Optimal design methodology has been developed for population PK studies, which analytically determines a sampling schedule that is clinically feasible and yields precise estimation of model parameters. In this work, optimal design methodology was used to determine sampling designs for typical future population PK studies of the partner drugs (mefloquine, lumefantrine, piperaquine and amodiaquine) co-administered with artemisinin derivatives. The optimal designs were determined using freely available software and were based on structural PK models from the literature and the key specifications of 100 patients with five samples per patient, with one sample taken on the seventh day of treatment. The derived optimal designs were then evaluated via a simulation-estimation procedure. For all partner drugs, designs consisting of two sampling schedules (50 patients per schedule) with five samples per patient resulted in acceptable precision of the model parameter estimates. The sampling schedules proposed in this paper should be considered in future population pharmacokinetic studies where intensive sampling over many days or weeks of follow-up is not possible due to either ethical, logistic or economical reasons.

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bender, Edward T.

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when comparedmore » the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.« less

Optimal experimental design for placement of boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalkina, Kateryna; Bücker, H. Martin; Seidler, Ralf; Rath, Volker; Marquart, Gabriele; Niederau, Jan; Herty, Michael

2014-05-01

Drilling for deep resources is an expensive endeavor. Among the many problems finding the optimal drilling location for boreholes is one of the challenging questions. We contribute to this discussion by using a simulation based assessment of possible future borehole locations. We study the problem of finding a new borehole location in a given geothermal reservoir in terms of a numerical optimization problem. In a geothermal reservoir the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature and hydraulic pressure may be simulated using the coupled differential equations for heat transport and mass and momentum conservation for Darcy flow. Within this model the permeability and thermal conductivity are dependent on the geological layers present in the subsurface model of the reservoir. In general, those values involve some uncertainty making it difficult to predict actual heat source in the ground. Within optimal experimental the question is which location and to which depth to drill the borehole in order to estimate conductivity and permeability with minimal uncertainty. We introduce a measure for computing the uncertainty based on simulations of the coupled differential equations. The measure is based on the Fisher information matrix of temperature data obtained through the simulations. We assume that the temperature data is available within the full borehole. A minimization of the measure representing the uncertainty in the unknown permeability and conductivity parameters is performed to determine the optimal borehole location. We present the theoretical framework as well as numerical results for several 2d subsurface models including up to six geological layers. Also, the effect of unknown layers on the introduced measure is studied. Finally, to obtain a more realistic estimate of optimal borehole locations, we couple the optimization to a cost model for deep drilling problems.

Use of personalized Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) in mental health studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; ZENG, Donglin; WANG, Yuanjia

2014-01-01

Summary Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each point where a clinical decision is made based on each patient’s time-varying characteristics and intermediate outcomes observed at earlier points in time. The complexity, patient heterogeneity, and chronicity of mental disorders call for learning optimal DTRs to dynamically adapt treatment to an individual’s response over time. The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMARTs) design allows for estimating causal effects of DTRs. Modern statistical tools have been developed to optimize DTRs based on personalized variables and intermediate outcomes using rich data collected from SMARTs; these statistical methods can also be used to recommend tailoring variables for designing future SMART studies. This paper introduces DTRs and SMARTs using two examples in mental health studies, discusses two machine learning methods for estimating optimal DTR from SMARTs data, and demonstrates the performance of the statistical methods using simulated data. PMID:25642116

Invisibility problem in acoustics, electromagnetism and heat transfer. Inverse design method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, G.; Tokhtina, A.; Soboleva, O.

2017-10-01

Two approaches (direct design and inverse design methods) for solving problems of designing devices providing invisibility of material bodies of detection using different physical fields - electromagnetic, acoustic and static are discussed. The second method is applied for solving problems of designing cloaking devices for the 3D stationary thermal scattering model. Based on this method the design problems under study are reduced to respective control problems. The material parameters (radial and tangential heat conductivities) of the inhomogeneous anisotropic medium filling the thermal cloak and the density of auxiliary heat sources play the role of controls. A unique solvability of direct thermal scattering problem in the Sobolev space is proved and the new estimates of solutions are established. Using these results, the solvability of control problem is proved and the optimality system is derived. Based on analysis of optimality system, the stability estimates of optimal solutions are established and numerical algorithms for solving particular thermal cloaking problem are proposed.

Design optimization of gas generator hybrid propulsion boosters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weldon, Vincent; Phillips, Dwight U.; Fink, Lawrence E.

1990-01-01

A methodology used in support of a contract study for NASA/MSFC to optimize the design of gas generator hybrid propulsion booster for uprating the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) is presented. The objective was to compare alternative configurations for this booster approach, optimizing each candidate concept on different bases, in order to develop data for a trade table on which a final decision was based. The methodology is capable of processing a large number of independent and dependent variables, adjusting the overall subsystems characteristics to arrive at a best compromise integrated design to meet various specified optimization criteria subject to selected constraints. For each system considered, a detailed weight statement was generated along with preliminary cost and reliability estimates.

Optimized tomography of continuous variable systems using excitation counting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chao; Heeres, Reinier W.; Reinhold, Philip; Jiang, Luyao; Liu, Yi-Kai; Schoelkopf, Robert J.; Jiang, Liang

2016-11-01

We propose a systematic procedure to optimize quantum state tomography protocols for continuous variable systems based on excitation counting preceded by a displacement operation. Compared with conventional tomography based on Husimi or Wigner function measurement, the excitation counting approach can significantly reduce the number of measurement settings. We investigate both informational completeness and robustness, and provide a bound of reconstruction error involving the condition number of the sensing map. We also identify the measurement settings that optimize this error bound, and demonstrate that the improved reconstruction robustness can lead to an order-of-magnitude reduction of estimation error with given resources. This optimization procedure is general and can incorporate prior information of the unknown state to further simplify the protocol.

Load forecasting via suboptimal seasonal autoregressive models and iteratively reweighted least squares estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mbamalu, G.A.N.; El-Hawary, M.E.

The authors propose suboptimal least squares or IRWLS procedures for estimating the parameters of a seasonal multiplicative AR model encountered during power system load forecasting. The proposed method involves using an interactive computer environment to estimate the parameters of a seasonal multiplicative AR process. The method comprises five major computational steps. The first determines the order of the seasonal multiplicative AR process, and the second uses the least squares or the IRWLS to estimate the optimal nonseasonal AR model parameters. In the third step one obtains the intermediate series by back forecast, which is followed by using the least squaresmore » or the IRWLS to estimate the optimal season AR parameters. The final step uses the estimated parameters to forecast future load. The method is applied to predict the Nova Scotia Power Corporation's 168 lead time hourly load. The results obtained are documented and compared with results based on the Box and Jenkins method.« less

Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

2004-12-01

We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

The link between judgments of comparative risk and own risk: further evidence.

PubMed

Gold, Ron S

2007-03-01

Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events, a phenomenon termed "unrealistic optimism". The direct method of assessing unrealistic optimism employs a question of the form, "Compared with the average person, what is the chance that X will occur to you?". However, it has been proposed that responses to such a question (direct-estimates) are based essentially just on estimates that X will occur to the self (self-estimates). If this is so, any factors that affect one of these estimates should also affect the other. This prediction was tested in two experiments. In each, direct- and self-estimates for an unfamiliar health threat - homocysteine-related heart problems - were recorded. It was found that both types of estimate were affected in the same way by varying the stated probability of having unsafe levels of homocysteine (Study 1, N=149) and varying the stated probability that unsafe levels of homocysteine will lead to heart problems (Study 2, N=111). The results are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed just from self-estimates.

Deterministic and reliability based optimization of integrated thermal protection system composite panel using adaptive sampling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravishankar, Bharani

Conventional space vehicles have thermal protection systems (TPS) that provide protection to an underlying structure that carries the flight loads. In an attempt to save weight, there is interest in an integrated TPS (ITPS) that combines the structural function and the TPS function. This has weight saving potential, but complicates the design of the ITPS that now has both thermal and structural failure modes. The main objectives of this dissertation was to optimally design the ITPS subjected to thermal and mechanical loads through deterministic and reliability based optimization. The optimization of the ITPS structure requires computationally expensive finite element analyses of 3D ITPS (solid) model. To reduce the computational expenses involved in the structural analysis, finite element based homogenization method was employed, homogenizing the 3D ITPS model to a 2D orthotropic plate. However it was found that homogenization was applicable only for panels that are much larger than the characteristic dimensions of the repeating unit cell in the ITPS panel. Hence a single unit cell was used for the optimization process to reduce the computational cost. Deterministic and probabilistic optimization of the ITPS panel required evaluation of failure constraints at various design points. This further demands computationally expensive finite element analyses which was replaced by efficient, low fidelity surrogate models. In an optimization process, it is important to represent the constraints accurately to find the optimum design. Instead of building global surrogate models using large number of designs, the computational resources were directed towards target regions near constraint boundaries for accurate representation of constraints using adaptive sampling strategies. Efficient Global Reliability Analyses (EGRA) facilitates sequentially sampling of design points around the region of interest in the design space. EGRA was applied to the response surface construction of the failure constraints in the deterministic and reliability based optimization of the ITPS panel. It was shown that using adaptive sampling, the number of designs required to find the optimum were reduced drastically, while improving the accuracy. System reliability of ITPS was estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based method. Separable Monte Carlo method was employed that allowed separable sampling of the random variables to predict the probability of failure accurately. The reliability analysis considered uncertainties in the geometry, material properties, loading conditions of the panel and error in finite element modeling. These uncertainties further increased the computational cost of MCS techniques which was also reduced by employing surrogate models. In order to estimate the error in the probability of failure estimate, bootstrapping method was applied. This research work thus demonstrates optimization of the ITPS composite panel with multiple failure modes and large number of uncertainties using adaptive sampling techniques.

Image interpolation via regularized local linear regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xianming; Zhao, Debin; Xiong, Ruiqin; Ma, Siwei; Gao, Wen; Sun, Huifang

2011-12-01

The linear regression model is a very attractive tool to design effective image interpolation schemes. Some regression-based image interpolation algorithms have been proposed in the literature, in which the objective functions are optimized by ordinary least squares (OLS). However, it is shown that interpolation with OLS may have some undesirable properties from a robustness point of view: even small amounts of outliers can dramatically affect the estimates. To address these issues, in this paper we propose a novel image interpolation algorithm based on regularized local linear regression (RLLR). Starting with the linear regression model where we replace the OLS error norm with the moving least squares (MLS) error norm leads to a robust estimator of local image structure. To keep the solution stable and avoid overfitting, we incorporate the l(2)-norm as the estimator complexity penalty. Moreover, motivated by recent progress on manifold-based semi-supervised learning, we explicitly consider the intrinsic manifold structure by making use of both measured and unmeasured data points. Specifically, our framework incorporates the geometric structure of the marginal probability distribution induced by unmeasured samples as an additional local smoothness preserving constraint. The optimal model parameters can be obtained with a closed-form solution by solving a convex optimization problem. Experimental results on benchmark test images demonstrate that the proposed method achieves very competitive performance with the state-of-the-art interpolation algorithms, especially in image edge structure preservation. © 2011 IEEE

Ground-based remote sensing of HDO/H2O ratio profiles: introduction and validation of an innovative retrieval approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Blumenstock, T.

2006-10-01

We propose an innovative approach for analysing ground-based FTIR spectra which allows us to detect variabilities of lower and middle/upper tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios. We show that the proposed method is superior to common approaches. We estimate that lower tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios can be detected with a noise to signal ratio of 15% and middle/upper tropospheric ratios with a noise to signal ratio of 50%. The method requires the inversion to be performed on a logarithmic scale and to introduce an inter-species constraint. While common methods calculate the isotope ratio posterior to an independent, optimal estimation of the HDO and H2O profile, the proposed approach is an optimal estimator for the ratio itself. We apply the innovative approach to spectra measured continuously during 15 months and present, for the first time, an annual cycle of tropospheric HDO/H2O ratio profiles as detected by ground-based measurements. Outliers in the detected middle/upper tropospheric ratios are interpreted by backward trajectories.

Ground-based remote sensing of HDO/H2O ratio profiles: introduction and validation of an innovative retrieval approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Blumenstock, T.

2006-06-01

We propose an innovative approach for analysing ground-based FTIR spectra which allows us to detect variabilities of lower and middle/upper tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios. We show that the proposed method is superior to common approaches. We estimate that lower tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios can be detected with a noise to signal ratio of 15% and middle/upper tropospheric ratios with a noise to signal ratio of 50%. The method requires the inversion to be performed on a logarithmic scale and to introduce an inter-species constraint. While common methods calculate the isotope ratio posterior to an independent, optimal estimation of the HDO and H2O profile, the proposed approach is an optimal estimator for the ratio itself. We apply the innovative approach to spectra measured continuously during 15 months and present, for the first time, an annual cycle of tropospheric HDO/H2O ratio profiles as detected by ground-based measurements. Outliers in the detected middle/upper tropospheric ratios are interpreted by backward trajectories.

Adjoint-Based Mesh Adaptation for the Sonic Boom Signature Loudness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rallabhandi, Sriram K.; Park, Michael A.

2017-01-01

The mesh adaptation functionality of FUN3D is utilized to obtain a mesh optimized to calculate sonic boom ground signature loudness. During this process, the coupling between the discrete-adjoints of the computational fluid dynamics tool FUN3D and the atmospheric propagation tool sBOOM is exploited to form the error estimate. This new mesh adaptation methodology will allow generation of suitable meshes adapted to reduce the estimated errors in the ground loudness, which is an optimization metric employed in supersonic aircraft design. This new output-based adaptation could allow new insights into meshing for sonic boom analysis and design, and complements existing output-based adaptation techniques such as adaptation to reduce estimated errors in off-body pressure functional. This effort could also have implications for other coupled multidisciplinary adjoint capabilities (e.g., aeroelasticity) as well as inclusion of propagation specific parameters such as prevailing winds or non-standard atmospheric conditions. Results are discussed in the context of existing methods and appropriate conclusions are drawn as to the efficacy and efficiency of the developed capability.

Optimization of PSA screening policies: a comparison of the patient and societal perspectives.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyu; Denton, Brian T; Balasubramanian, Hari; Shah, Nilay D; Inman, Brant A

2012-01-01

To estimate the benefit of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer from the patient and societal perspectives. A partially observable Markov decision process model was used to optimize PSA screening decisions. Age-specific prostate cancer incidence rates and the mortality rates from prostate cancer and competing causes were considered. The model trades off the potential benefit of early detection with the cost of screening and loss of patient quality of life due to screening and treatment. PSA testing and biopsy decisions are made based on the patient's probability of having prostate cancer. Probabilities are inferred based on the patient's complete PSA history using Bayesian updating. The results of all PSA tests and biopsies done in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1993 to 2005 (11,872 men and 50,589 PSA test results). Patients' perspective: to maximize expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs); societal perspective: to maximize the expected monetary value based on societal willingness to pay for QALYs and the cost of PSA testing, prostate biopsies, and treatment. From the patient perspective, the optimal policy recommends stopping PSA testing and biopsy at age 76. From the societal perspective, the stopping age is 71. The expected incremental benefit of optimal screening over the traditional guideline of annual PSA screening with threshold 4.0 ng/mL for biopsy is estimated to be 0.165 QALYs per person from the patient perspective and 0.161 QALYs per person from the societal perspective. PSA screening based on traditional guidelines is found to be worse than no screening at all. PSA testing done with traditional guidelines underperforms and therefore underestimates the potential benefit of screening. Optimal screening guidelines differ significantly depending on the perspective of the decision maker.

An improved hybrid of particle swarm optimization and the gravitational search algorithm to produce a kinetic parameter estimation of aspartate biochemical pathways.

PubMed

Ismail, Ahmad Muhaimin; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Abdul Majid, Hairudin; Abas, Khairul Hamimah; Deris, Safaai; Zaki, Nazar; Mohd Hashim, Siti Zaiton; Ibrahim, Zuwairie; Remli, Muhammad Akmal

2017-12-01

Mathematical modelling is fundamental to understand the dynamic behavior and regulation of the biochemical metabolisms and pathways that are found in biological systems. Pathways are used to describe complex processes that involve many parameters. It is important to have an accurate and complete set of parameters that describe the characteristics of a given model. However, measuring these parameters is typically difficult and even impossible in some cases. Furthermore, the experimental data are often incomplete and also suffer from experimental noise. These shortcomings make it challenging to identify the best-fit parameters that can represent the actual biological processes involved in biological systems. Computational approaches are required to estimate these parameters. The estimation is converted into multimodal optimization problems that require a global optimization algorithm that can avoid local solutions. These local solutions can lead to a bad fit when calibrating with a model. Although the model itself can potentially match a set of experimental data, a high-performance estimation algorithm is required to improve the quality of the solutions. This paper describes an improved hybrid of particle swarm optimization and the gravitational search algorithm (IPSOGSA) to improve the efficiency of a global optimum (the best set of kinetic parameter values) search. The findings suggest that the proposed algorithm is capable of narrowing down the search space by exploiting the feasible solution areas. Hence, the proposed algorithm is able to achieve a near-optimal set of parameters at a fast convergence speed. The proposed algorithm was tested and evaluated based on two aspartate pathways that were obtained from the BioModels Database. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperformed other standard optimization algorithms in terms of accuracy and near-optimal kinetic parameter estimation. Nevertheless, the proposed algorithm is only expected to work well in small scale systems. In addition, the results of this study can be used to estimate kinetic parameter values in the stage of model selection for different experimental conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Decoupled CFD-based optimization of efficiency and cavitation performance of a double-suction pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Škerlavaj, A.; Morgut, M.; Jošt, D.; Nobile, E.

2017-04-01

In this study the impeller geometry of a double-suction pump ensuring the best performances in terms of hydraulic efficiency and reluctance of cavitation is determined using an optimization strategy, which was driven by means of the modeFRONTIER optimization platform. The different impeller shapes (designs) are modified according to the optimization parameters and tested with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, namely ANSYS CFX. The simulations are performed using a decoupled approach, where only the impeller domain region is numerically investigated for computational convenience. The flow losses in the volute are estimated on the base of the velocity distribution at the impeller outlet. The best designs are then validated considering the computationally more expensive full geometry CFD model. The overall results show that the proposed approach is suitable for quick impeller shape optimization.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Stephen R., E-mail: stephen.thompson@sesiahs.health.nsw.gov.au; Department of Radiation Oncology, Prince of Wales Hospital, Sydney; University of New South Wales, Sydney

Purpose: We aimed to estimate the optimal proportion of all gynecological cancers that should be treated with brachytherapy (BT)-the optimal brachytherapy utilization rate (BTU)-to compare this with actual gynecological BTU and to assess the effects of nonmedical factors on access to BT. Methods and Materials: The previously constructed inter/multinational guideline-based peer-reviewed models of optimal BTU for cancers of the uterine cervix, uterine corpus, and vagina were combined to estimate optimal BTU for all gynecological cancers. The robustness of the model was tested by univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. The resulting model was applied to New South Wales (NSW), the Unitedmore » States, and Western Europe. Actual BTU was determined for NSW by a retrospective patterns-of-care study of BT; for Western Europe from published reports; and for the United States from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Differences between optimal and actual BTU were assessed. The effect of nonmedical factors on access to BT in NSW were analyzed. Results: Gynecological BTU was as follows: NSW 28% optimal (95% confidence interval [CI] 26%-33%) compared with 14% actual; United States 30% optimal (95% CI 26%-34%) and 10% actual; and Western Europe 27% optimal (95% CI 25%-32%) and 16% actual. On multivariate analysis, NSW patients were more likely to undergo gynecological BT if residing in Area Health Service equipped with BT (odds ratio 1.76, P=.008) and if residing in socioeconomically disadvantaged postcodes (odds ratio 1.12, P=.05), but remoteness of residence was not significant. Conclusions: Gynecological BT is underutilized in NSW, Western Europe, and the United States given evidence-based guidelines. Access to BT equipment in NSW was significantly associated with higher utilization rates. Causes of underutilization elsewhere were undetermined. Our model of optimal BTU can be used as a quality assurance tool, providing an evidence-based benchmark against which actual patterns of practice can be measured. It can also be used to assist in determining the adequacy of BT resource allocation.« less

Targeted estimation of nuisance parameters to obtain valid statistical inference.

PubMed

van der Laan, Mark J

2014-01-01

In order to obtain concrete results, we focus on estimation of the treatment specific mean, controlling for all measured baseline covariates, based on observing independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a subsequently assigned binary treatment, and a final outcome. The statistical model only assumes possible restrictions on the conditional distribution of treatment, given the covariates, the so-called propensity score. Estimators of the treatment specific mean involve estimation of the propensity score and/or estimation of the conditional mean of the outcome, given the treatment and covariates. In order to make these estimators asymptotically unbiased at any data distribution in the statistical model, it is essential to use data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters such as ensemble learning, and specifically super-learning. Because such estimators involve optimal trade-off of bias and variance w.r.t. the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter itself, they result in a sub-optimal bias/variance trade-off for the resulting real-valued estimator of the estimand. We demonstrate that additional targeting of the estimators of these nuisance parameters guarantees that this bias for the estimand is second order and thereby allows us to prove theorems that establish asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the treatment specific mean under regularity conditions. These insights result in novel targeted minimum loss-based estimators (TMLEs) that use ensemble learning with additional targeted bias reduction to construct estimators of the nuisance parameters. In particular, we construct collaborative TMLEs (C-TMLEs) with known influence curve allowing for statistical inference, even though these C-TMLEs involve variable selection for the propensity score based on a criterion that measures how effective the resulting fit of the propensity score is in removing bias for the estimand. As a particular special case, we also demonstrate the required targeting of the propensity score for the inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator using super-learning to fit the propensity score.

Multiple sensitive estimation and optimal sample size allocation in the item sum technique.

PubMed

Perri, Pier Francesco; Rueda García, María Del Mar; Cobo Rodríguez, Beatriz

2018-01-01

For surveys of sensitive issues in life sciences, statistical procedures can be used to reduce nonresponse and social desirability response bias. Both of these phenomena provoke nonsampling errors that are difficult to deal with and can seriously flaw the validity of the analyses. The item sum technique (IST) is a very recent indirect questioning method derived from the item count technique that seeks to procure more reliable responses on quantitative items than direct questioning while preserving respondents' anonymity. This article addresses two important questions concerning the IST: (i) its implementation when two or more sensitive variables are investigated and efficient estimates of their unknown population means are required; (ii) the determination of the optimal sample size to achieve minimum variance estimates. These aspects are of great relevance for survey practitioners engaged in sensitive research and, to the best of our knowledge, were not studied so far. In this article, theoretical results for multiple estimation and optimal allocation are obtained under a generic sampling design and then particularized to simple random sampling and stratified sampling designs. Theoretical considerations are integrated with a number of simulation studies based on data from two real surveys and conducted to ascertain the efficiency gain derived from optimal allocation in different situations. One of the surveys concerns cannabis consumption among university students. Our findings highlight some methodological advances that can be obtained in life sciences IST surveys when optimal allocation is achieved. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Bayesian Framework for Human Body Pose Tracking from Depth Image Sequences

PubMed Central

Zhu, Youding; Fujimura, Kikuo

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of accurate and robust tracking of 3D human body pose from depth image sequences. Recovering the large number of degrees of freedom in human body movements from a depth image sequence is challenging due to the need to resolve the depth ambiguity caused by self-occlusions and the difficulty to recover from tracking failure. Human body poses could be estimated through model fitting using dense correspondences between depth data and an articulated human model (local optimization method). Although it usually achieves a high accuracy due to dense correspondences, it may fail to recover from tracking failure. Alternately, human pose may be reconstructed by detecting and tracking human body anatomical landmarks (key-points) based on low-level depth image analysis. While this method (key-point based method) is robust and recovers from tracking failure, its pose estimation accuracy depends solely on image-based localization accuracy of key-points. To address these limitations, we present a flexible Bayesian framework for integrating pose estimation results obtained by methods based on key-points and local optimization. Experimental results are shown and performance comparison is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. PMID:22399933

Finite Element Based HWB Centerbody Structural Optimization and Weight Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gern, Frank H.

2012-01-01

This paper describes a scalable structural model suitable for Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) centerbody analysis and optimization. The geometry of the centerbody and primary wing structure is based on a Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) surface model of the aircraft and a FLOPS compatible parameterization of the centerbody. Structural analysis, optimization, and weight calculation are based on a Nastran finite element model of the primary HWB structural components, featuring centerbody, mid section, and outboard wing. Different centerbody designs like single bay or multi-bay options are analyzed and weight calculations are compared to current FLOPS results. For proper structural sizing and weight estimation, internal pressure and maneuver flight loads are applied. Results are presented for aerodynamic loads, deformations, and centerbody weight.

Heat transfer simulation and retort program adjustment for thermal processing of wheat based Haleem in semi-rigid aluminum containers.

PubMed

Vatankhah, Hamed; Zamindar, Nafiseh; Shahedi Baghekhandan, Mohammad

2015-10-01

A mixed computational strategy was used to simulate and optimize the thermal processing of Haleem, an ancient eastern food, in semi-rigid aluminum containers. Average temperature values of the experiments showed no significant difference (α = 0.05) in contrast to the predicted temperatures at the same positions. According to the model, the slowest heating zone was located in geometrical center of the container. The container geometrical center F0 was estimated to be 23.8 min. A 19 min processing time interval decrease in holding time of the treatment was estimated to optimize the heating operation since the preferred F0 of some starch or meat based fluid foods is about 4.8-7.5 min.

Evaluation of solar thermal power plants using economic and performance simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Gabawali, N.

1980-01-01

An energy cost analysis is presented for central receiver power plants with thermal storage and point focusing power plants with electrical storage. The present approach is based on optimizing the size of the plant to give the minimum energy cost (in mills/kWe hr) of an annual plant energy production. The optimization is done by considering the trade-off between the collector field size and the storage capacity for a given engine size. The energy cost is determined by the plant cost and performance. The performance is estimated by simulating the behavior of the plant under typical weather conditions. Plant capital and operational costs are estimated based on the size and performance of different components. This methodology is translated into computer programs for automatic and consistent evaluation.

A numerical identifiability test for state-space models--application to optimal experimental design.

PubMed

Hidalgo, M E; Ayesa, E

2001-01-01

This paper describes a mathematical tool for identifiability analysis, easily applicable to high order non-linear systems modelled in state-space and implementable in simulators with a time-discrete approach. This procedure also permits a rigorous analysis of the expected estimation errors (average and maximum) in calibration experiments. The methodology is based on the recursive numerical evaluation of the information matrix during the simulation of a calibration experiment and in the setting-up of a group of information parameters based on geometric interpretations of this matrix. As an example of the utility of the proposed test, the paper presents its application to an optimal experimental design of ASM Model No. 1 calibration, in order to estimate the maximum specific growth rate microH and the concentration of heterotrophic biomass XBH.

Model-based Estimation for Pose, Velocity of Projectile from Stereo Linear Array Image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhuxin; Wen, Gongjian; Zhang, Xing; Li, Deren

2012-01-01

The pose (position and attitude) and velocity of in-flight projectiles have major influence on the performance and accuracy. A cost-effective method for measuring the gun-boosted projectiles is proposed. The method adopts only one linear array image collected by the stereo vision system combining a digital line-scan camera and a mirror near the muzzle. From the projectile's stereo image, the motion parameters (pose and velocity) are acquired by using a model-based optimization algorithm. The algorithm achieves optimal estimation of the parameters by matching the stereo projection of the projectile and that of the same size 3D model. The speed and the AOA (angle of attack) could also be determined subsequently. Experiments are made to test the proposed method.

Suborbital spaceplane optimization using non-stationary Gaussian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, Robin; de Muelenaere, Julien; Elham, Ali

2014-10-01

This paper presents multidisciplinary design optimization of a sub-orbital spaceplane. The optimization includes three disciplines: the aerodynamics, the structure and the trajectory. An Adjoint Euler code is used to calculate the aerodynamic lift and drag of the vehicle as well as their derivatives with respect to the design variables. A new surrogate model has been developed based on a non-stationary Gaussian process. That model was used to estimate the aerodynamic characteristics of the vehicle during the trajectory optimization. The trajectory of thevehicle has been optimized together with its geometry in order to maximize the amount of payload that can be carried by the spaceplane.

Recent Advances in Source Localisation Using Range Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

Range Weighted SR- LS ............................................................................................ 5 GEOLOCATION USING SEMIDEFINITE... LS ) and the squared range least squares (SR- LS ) [3]. The R- LS -based formulation is of great interest and has been known for its optimal performance...to efficiently compute an R- LS position estimate. A number of optimization tools may be applied to globally solve the R- LS problem and are usually

Optimized quantum sensing with a single electron spin using real-time adaptive measurements.

PubMed

Bonato, C; Blok, M S; Dinani, H T; Berry, D W; Markham, M L; Twitchen, D J; Hanson, R

2016-03-01

Quantum sensors based on single solid-state spins promise a unique combination of sensitivity and spatial resolution. The key challenge in sensing is to achieve minimum estimation uncertainty within a given time and with high dynamic range. Adaptive strategies have been proposed to achieve optimal performance, but their implementation in solid-state systems has been hindered by the demanding experimental requirements. Here, we realize adaptive d.c. sensing by combining single-shot readout of an electron spin in diamond with fast feedback. By adapting the spin readout basis in real time based on previous outcomes, we demonstrate a sensitivity in Ramsey interferometry surpassing the standard measurement limit. Furthermore, we find by simulations and experiments that adaptive protocols offer a distinctive advantage over the best known non-adaptive protocols when overhead and limited estimation time are taken into account. Using an optimized adaptive protocol we achieve a magnetic field sensitivity of 6.1 ± 1.7 nT Hz(-1/2) over a wide range of 1.78 mT. These results open up a new class of experiments for solid-state sensors in which real-time knowledge of the measurement history is exploited to obtain optimal performance.

Optimized quantum sensing with a single electron spin using real-time adaptive measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonato, C.; Blok, M. S.; Dinani, H. T.; Berry, D. W.; Markham, M. L.; Twitchen, D. J.; Hanson, R.

2016-03-01

Quantum sensors based on single solid-state spins promise a unique combination of sensitivity and spatial resolution. The key challenge in sensing is to achieve minimum estimation uncertainty within a given time and with high dynamic range. Adaptive strategies have been proposed to achieve optimal performance, but their implementation in solid-state systems has been hindered by the demanding experimental requirements. Here, we realize adaptive d.c. sensing by combining single-shot readout of an electron spin in diamond with fast feedback. By adapting the spin readout basis in real time based on previous outcomes, we demonstrate a sensitivity in Ramsey interferometry surpassing the standard measurement limit. Furthermore, we find by simulations and experiments that adaptive protocols offer a distinctive advantage over the best known non-adaptive protocols when overhead and limited estimation time are taken into account. Using an optimized adaptive protocol we achieve a magnetic field sensitivity of 6.1 ± 1.7 nT Hz-1/2 over a wide range of 1.78 mT. These results open up a new class of experiments for solid-state sensors in which real-time knowledge of the measurement history is exploited to obtain optimal performance.

Blind third-order dispersion estimation based on fractional Fourier transformation for coherent optical communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lin; Guo, Peng; Yang, Aiying; Qiao, Yaojun

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a blind third-order dispersion estimation method based on fractional Fourier transformation (FrFT) in optical fiber communication system. By measuring the chromatic dispersion (CD) at different wavelengths, this method can estimation dispersion slope and further calculate the third-order dispersion. The simulation results demonstrate that the estimation error is less than 2 % in 28GBaud dual polarization quadrature phase-shift keying (DP-QPSK) and 28GBaud dual polarization 16 quadrature amplitude modulation (DP-16QAM) system. Through simulations, the proposed third-order dispersion estimation method is shown to be robust against nonlinear and amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise. In addition, to reduce the computational complexity, searching step with coarse and fine granularity is chosen to search optimal order of FrFT. The third-order dispersion estimation method based on FrFT can be used to monitor the third-order dispersion in optical fiber system.

Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. Methods We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Conclusions Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method. PMID:25052018

A constraint-based evolutionary learning approach to the expectation maximization for optimal estimation of the hidden Markov model for speech signal modeling.

PubMed

Huda, Shamsul; Yearwood, John; Togneri, Roberto

2009-02-01

This paper attempts to overcome the tendency of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to locate a local rather than global maximum when applied to estimate the hidden Markov model (HMM) parameters in speech signal modeling. We propose a hybrid algorithm for estimation of the HMM in automatic speech recognition (ASR) using a constraint-based evolutionary algorithm (EA) and EM, the CEL-EM. The novelty of our hybrid algorithm (CEL-EM) is that it is applicable for estimation of the constraint-based models with many constraints and large numbers of parameters (which use EM) like HMM. Two constraint-based versions of the CEL-EM with different fusion strategies have been proposed using a constraint-based EA and the EM for better estimation of HMM in ASR. The first one uses a traditional constraint-handling mechanism of EA. The other version transforms a constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained problem using Lagrange multipliers. Fusion strategies for the CEL-EM use a staged-fusion approach where EM has been plugged with the EA periodically after the execution of EA for a specific period of time to maintain the global sampling capabilities of EA in the hybrid algorithm. A variable initialization approach (VIA) has been proposed using a variable segmentation to provide a better initialization for EA in the CEL-EM. Experimental results on the TIMIT speech corpus show that CEL-EM obtains higher recognition accuracies than the traditional EM algorithm as well as a top-standard EM (VIA-EM, constructed by applying the VIA to EM).

Automatic Feature Selection and Weighting for the Formation of Homogeneous Groups for Regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curve Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Burn, D. H.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events can have devastating impacts on society. To quantify the associated risk, the IDF curve has been used to provide the essential rainfall-related information for urban planning. However, the recent changes in the rainfall climatology caused by climate change and urbanization have made the estimates provided by the traditional regional IDF approach increasingly inaccurate. This inaccuracy is mainly caused by two problems: 1) The ineffective choice of similarity indicators for the formation of a homogeneous group at different regions; and 2) An inadequate number of stations in the pooling group that does not adequately reflect the optimal balance between group size and group homogeneity or achieve the lowest uncertainty in the rainfall quantiles estimates. For the first issue, to consider the temporal difference among different meteorological and topographic indicators, a three-layer design is proposed based on three stages in the extreme rainfall formation: cloud formation, rainfall generation and change of rainfall intensity above urban surface. During the process, the impacts from climate change and urbanization are considered through the inclusion of potential relevant features at each layer. Then to consider spatial difference of similarity indicators for the homogeneous group formation at various regions, an automatic feature selection and weighting algorithm, specifically the hybrid searching algorithm of Tabu search, Lagrange Multiplier and Fuzzy C-means Clustering, is used to select the optimal combination of features for the potential optimal homogenous groups formation at a specific region. For the second issue, to compare the uncertainty of rainfall quantile estimates among potential groups, the two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test-based sample ranking process is used. During the process, linear programming is used to rank these groups based on the confidence intervals of the quantile estimates. The proposed methodology fills the gap of including the urbanization impacts during the pooling group formation, and challenges the traditional assumption that the same set of similarity indicators can be equally effective in generating the optimal homogeneous group for regions with different geographic and meteorological characteristics.

Improving best-phase image quality in cardiac CT by motion correction with MAM optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rohkohl, Christopher; Bruder, Herbert; Stierstorfer, Karl

2013-03-15

Purpose: Research in image reconstruction for cardiac CT aims at using motion correction algorithms to improve the image quality of the coronary arteries. The key to those algorithms is motion estimation, which is currently based on 3-D/3-D registration to align the structures of interest in images acquired in multiple heart phases. The need for an extended scan data range covering several heart phases is critical in terms of radiation dose to the patient and limits the clinical potential of the method. Furthermore, literature reports only slight quality improvements of the motion corrected images when compared to the most quiet phasemore » (best-phase) that was actually used for motion estimation. In this paper a motion estimation algorithm is proposed which does not require an extended scan range but works with a short scan data interval, and which markedly improves the best-phase image quality. Methods: Motion estimation is based on the definition of motion artifact metrics (MAM) to quantify motion artifacts in a 3-D reconstructed image volume. The authors use two different MAMs, entropy, and positivity. By adjusting the motion field parameters, the MAM of the resulting motion-compensated reconstruction is optimized using a gradient descent procedure. In this way motion artifacts are minimized. For a fast and practical implementation, only analytical methods are used for motion estimation and compensation. Both the MAM-optimization and a 3-D/3-D registration-based motion estimation algorithm were investigated by means of a computer-simulated vessel with a cardiac motion profile. Image quality was evaluated using normalized cross-correlation (NCC) with the ground truth template and root-mean-square deviation (RMSD). Four coronary CT angiography patient cases were reconstructed to evaluate the clinical performance of the proposed method. Results: For the MAM-approach, the best-phase image quality could be improved for all investigated heart phases, with a maximum improvement of the NCC value by 100% and of the RMSD value by 81%. The corresponding maximum improvements for the registration-based approach were 20% and 40%. In phases with very rapid motion the registration-based algorithm obtained better image quality, while the image quality of the MAM algorithm was superior in phases with less motion. The image quality improvement of the MAM optimization was visually confirmed for the different clinical cases. Conclusions: The proposed method allows a software-based best-phase image quality improvement in coronary CT angiography. A short scan data interval at the target heart phase is sufficient, no additional scan data in other cardiac phases are required. The algorithm is therefore directly applicable to any standard cardiac CT acquisition protocol.« less

[Application of ordinary Kriging method in entomologic ecology].

PubMed

Zhang, Runjie; Zhou, Qiang; Chen, Cuixian; Wang, Shousong

2003-01-01

Geostatistics is a statistic method based on regional variables and using the tool of variogram to analyze the spatial structure and the patterns of organism. In simulating the variogram within a great range, though optimal simulation cannot be obtained, the simulation method of a dialogue between human and computer can be used to optimize the parameters of the spherical models. In this paper, the method mentioned above and the weighted polynomial regression were utilized to simulate the one-step spherical model, the two-step spherical model and linear function model, and the available nearby samples were used to draw on the ordinary Kriging procedure, which provided a best linear unbiased estimate of the constraint of the unbiased estimation. The sum of square deviation between the estimating and measuring values of varying theory models were figured out, and the relative graphs were shown. It was showed that the simulation based on the two-step spherical model was the best simulation, and the one-step spherical model was better than the linear function model.

Kalman Filter Constraint Tuning for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. Recently published work has shown a new method for incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter, which has been shown to generally improve the filter s estimation accuracy. However, the incorporation of inequality constraints poses some risk to the estimation accuracy as the Kalman filter is theoretically optimal. This paper proposes a way to tune the filter constraints so that the state estimates follow the unconstrained (theoretically optimal) filter when the confidence in the unconstrained filter is high. When confidence in the unconstrained filter is not so high, then we use our heuristic knowledge to constrain the state estimates. The confidence measure is based on the agreement of measurement residuals with their theoretical values. The algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate engine health.

Neural-network-observer-based optimal control for unknown nonlinear systems using adaptive dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Derong; Huang, Yuzhu; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

2013-09-01

In this paper, an observer-based optimal control scheme is developed for unknown nonlinear systems using adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm. First, a neural-network (NN) observer is designed to estimate system states. Then, based on the observed states, a neuro-controller is constructed via ADP method to obtain the optimal control. In this design, two NN structures are used: a three-layer NN is used to construct the observer which can be applied to systems with higher degrees of nonlinearity and without a priori knowledge of system dynamics, and a critic NN is employed to approximate the value function. The optimal control law is computed using the critic NN and the observer NN. Uniform ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is guaranteed. The actor, critic, and observer structures are all implemented in real-time, continuously and simultaneously. Finally, simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Multi-factorial analysis of class prediction error: estimating optimal number of biomarkers for various classification rules.

PubMed

Khondoker, Mizanur R; Bachmann, Till T; Mewissen, Muriel; Dickinson, Paul; Dobrzelecki, Bartosz; Campbell, Colin J; Mount, Andrew R; Walton, Anthony J; Crain, Jason; Schulze, Holger; Giraud, Gerard; Ross, Alan J; Ciani, Ilenia; Ember, Stuart W J; Tlili, Chaker; Terry, Jonathan G; Grant, Eilidh; McDonnell, Nicola; Ghazal, Peter

2010-12-01

Machine learning and statistical model based classifiers have increasingly been used with more complex and high dimensional biological data obtained from high-throughput technologies. Understanding the impact of various factors associated with large and complex microarray datasets on the predictive performance of classifiers is computationally intensive, under investigated, yet vital in determining the optimal number of biomarkers for various classification purposes aimed towards improved detection, diagnosis, and therapeutic monitoring of diseases. We investigate the impact of microarray based data characteristics on the predictive performance for various classification rules using simulation studies. Our investigation using Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-Nearest Neighbour shows that the predictive performance of classifiers is strongly influenced by training set size, biological and technical variability, replication, fold change and correlation between biomarkers. Optimal number of biomarkers for a classification problem should therefore be estimated taking account of the impact of all these factors. A database of average generalization errors is built for various combinations of these factors. The database of generalization errors can be used for estimating the optimal number of biomarkers for given levels of predictive accuracy as a function of these factors. Examples show that curves from actual biological data resemble that of simulated data with corresponding levels of data characteristics. An R package optBiomarker implementing the method is freely available for academic use from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (http://www.cran.r-project.org/web/packages/optBiomarker/).

Optimal full motion video registration with rigorous error propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolloff, John; Hottel, Bryant; Doucette, Peter; Theiss, Henry; Jocher, Glenn

2014-06-01

Optimal full motion video (FMV) registration is a crucial need for the Geospatial community. It is required for subsequent and optimal geopositioning with simultaneous and reliable accuracy prediction. An overall approach being developed for such registration is presented that models relevant error sources in terms of the expected magnitude and correlation of sensor errors. The corresponding estimator is selected based on the level of accuracy of the a priori information of the sensor's trajectory and attitude (pointing) information, in order to best deal with non-linearity effects. Estimator choices include near real-time Kalman Filters and batch Weighted Least Squares. Registration solves for corrections to the sensor a priori information for each frame. It also computes and makes available a posteriori accuracy information, i.e., the expected magnitude and correlation of sensor registration errors. Both the registered sensor data and its a posteriori accuracy information are then made available to "down-stream" Multi-Image Geopositioning (MIG) processes. An object of interest is then measured on the registered frames and a multi-image optimal solution, including reliable predicted solution accuracy, is then performed for the object's 3D coordinates. This paper also describes a robust approach to registration when a priori information of sensor attitude is unavailable. It makes use of structure-from-motion principles, but does not use standard Computer Vision techniques, such as estimation of the Essential Matrix which can be very sensitive to noise. The approach used instead is a novel, robust, direct search-based technique.

The Community Cloud retrieval for CLimate (CC4CL) - Part 2: The optimal estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGarragh, Gregory R.; Poulsen, Caroline A.; Thomas, Gareth E.; Povey, Adam C.; Sus, Oliver; Stapelberg, Stefan; Schlundt, Cornelia; Proud, Simon; Christensen, Matthew W.; Stengel, Martin; Hollmann, Rainer; Grainger, Roy G.

2018-06-01

The Community Cloud retrieval for Climate (CC4CL) is a cloud property retrieval system for satellite-based multispectral imagers and is an important component of the Cloud Climate Change Initiative (Cloud_cci) project. In this paper we discuss the optimal estimation retrieval of cloud optical thickness, effective radius and cloud top pressure based on the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm. Key to this method is the forward model, which includes the clear-sky model, the liquid water and ice cloud models, the surface model including a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), and the "fast" radiative transfer solution (which includes a multiple scattering treatment). All of these components and their assumptions and limitations will be discussed in detail. The forward model provides the accuracy appropriate for our retrieval method. The errors are comparable to the instrument noise for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. At optical thicknesses less than 10 modeling errors become more significant. The retrieval method is then presented describing optimal estimation in general, the nonlinear inversion method employed, measurement and a priori inputs, the propagation of input uncertainties and the calculation of subsidiary quantities that are derived from the retrieval results. An evaluation of the retrieval was performed using measurements simulated with noise levels appropriate for the MODIS instrument. Results show errors less than 10 % for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. Results for clouds of optical thicknesses less than 10 have errors up to 20 %.

Constraining the atmosphere of GJ 1214b using an optimal estimation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barstow, J. K.; Aigrain, S.; Irwin, P. G. J.; Fletcher, L. N.; Lee, J.-M.

2013-09-01

We explore cloudy, extended H2-He atmosphere scenarios for the warm super-Earth GJ 1214b using an optimal estimation retrieval technique. This planet, orbiting an M4.5 star only 13 pc from the Earth, is of particular interest because it lies between the Earth and Neptune in size and may be a member of a new class of planet that is neither terrestrial nor gas giant. Its relatively flat transmission spectrum has so far made atmospheric characterization difficult. The Non-linear optimal Estimator for MultivariateE spectral analySIS (NEMESIS) algorithm is used to explore the degenerate model parameter space for a cloudy, H2-He-dominated atmosphere scenario. Optimal estimation is a data-led approach that allows solutions beyond the range permitted by ab initio equilibrium model atmosphere calculations, and as such prevents restriction from prior expectations. We show that optimal estimation retrieval is a powerful tool for this kind of study, and present an exploration of the degenerate atmospheric scenarios for GJ 1214b. Whilst we find a family of solutions that provide a very good fit to the data, the quality and coverage of these data are insufficient for us to more precisely determine the abundances of cloud and trace gases given an H2-He atmosphere, and we also cannot rule out the possibility of a high molecular weight atmosphere. Future ground- and space-based observations will provide the opportunity to confirm or rule out an extended H2-He atmosphere, but more precise constraints will be limited by intrinsic degeneracies in the retrieval problem, such as variations in cloud top pressure and temperature.

Cosmological parameter estimation using Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, J.; Souradeep, T.

2014-03-01

Constraining parameters of a theoretical model from observational data is an important exercise in cosmology. There are many theoretically motivated models, which demand greater number of cosmological parameters than the standard model of cosmology uses, and make the problem of parameter estimation challenging. It is a common practice to employ Bayesian formalism for parameter estimation for which, in general, likelihood surface is probed. For the standard cosmological model with six parameters, likelihood surface is quite smooth and does not have local maxima, and sampling based methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method are quite successful. However, when there are a large number of parameters or the likelihood surface is not smooth, other methods may be more effective. In this paper, we have demonstrated application of another method inspired from artificial intelligence, called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for estimating cosmological parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data taken from the WMAP satellite.

Maximize, minimize or target - optimization for a fitted response from a designed experiment

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Cao, Yongtao; Lu, Lu

2016-04-01

One of the common goals of running and analyzing a designed experiment is to find a location in the design space that optimizes the response of interest. Depending on the goal of the experiment, we may seek to maximize or minimize the response, or set the process to hit a particular target value. After the designed experiment, a response model is fitted and the optimal settings of the input factors are obtained based on the estimated response model. Furthermore, the suggested optimal settings of the input factors are then used in the production environment.

Efficient dense blur map estimation for automatic 2D-to-3D conversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vosters, L. P. J.; de Haan, G.

2012-03-01

Focus is an important depth cue for 2D-to-3D conversion of low depth-of-field images and video. However, focus can be only reliably estimated on edges. Therefore, Bea et al. [1] first proposed an optimization based approach to propagate focus to non-edge image portions, for single image focus editing. While their approach produces accurate dense blur maps, the computational complexity and memory requirements for solving the resulting sparse linear system with standard multigrid or (multilevel) preconditioning techniques, are infeasible within the stringent requirements of the consumer electronics and broadcast industry. In this paper we propose fast, efficient, low latency, line scanning based focus propagation, which mitigates the need for complex multigrid or (multilevel) preconditioning techniques. In addition we propose facial blur compensation to compensate for false shading edges that cause incorrect blur estimates in people's faces. In general shading leads to incorrect focus estimates, which may lead to unnatural 3D and visual discomfort. Since visual attention mostly tends to faces, our solution solves the most distracting errors. A subjective assessment by paired comparison on a set of challenging low-depth-of-field images shows that the proposed approach achieves equal 3D image quality as optimization based approaches, and that facial blur compensation results in a significant improvement.

Information operator approach applied to the retrieval of vertical distributions of atmospheric constituents from ground-based FTIR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senten, Cindy; de Mazière, Martine; Vanhaelewyn, Gauthier; Vigouroux, Corinne; Delmas, Robert

2010-05-01

The retrieval of information about the vertical distribution of an atmospheric absorber from high spectral resolution ground-based Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectra is an important issue in remote sensing. A frequently used technique at present is the optimal estimation method. This work introduces the application of an alternative method, namely the information operator approach (Doicu et al., 2007; Hoogen et al., 1999), for extracting the available information from such FTIR measurements. This approach has been implemented within the well-known retrieval code SFIT2, by adapting the optimal estimation method such as to take into account only the significant contributions to the solution. In particular, we demonstrate the feasibility of the method when applied to ground-based FTIR spectra taken at the southern (sub)tropical site Ile de La Réunion (21° S, 55° E) in 2007. A thorough comparison has been made between the retrieval results obtained with the original optimal estimation method and the ones obtained with the information operator approach, regarding profile and column stability, information content and corresponding full error budget evaluation. This has been done for the target species ozone (O3), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon monoxide (CO). It is shown that the information operator approach performs well and is capable of achieving the same accuracy as optimal estimation, with a gain of stability and with the additional advantage of being less sensitive to the choice of a priori information as well as to the actual signal-to-noise ratio. Keywords: ground-based FTIR, solar absorption spectra, greenhouse gases, information operator approach References Doicu, A., Hilgers, S., von Bargen, A., Rozanov, A., Eichmann, K.-U., von Savigny, C., and Burrows, J.P.: Information operator approach and iterative regularization methods for atmospheric remote sensing, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 103, 340-350, 2007. Hoogen, R., Rozanov, V.V., and Burrows, J.P.: Ozone profiles from GOME satellite data: description and first validation, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D7), 8263-8280, 1999.

A Carrier Estimation Method Based on MLE and KF for Weak GNSS Signals.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongyang; Xu, Luping; Yan, Bo; Zhang, Hua; Luo, Liyan

2017-06-22

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been researched for some acquisition and tracking applications of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers and shows high performance. However, all current methods are derived and operated based on the sampling data, which results in a large computation burden. This paper proposes a low-complexity MLE carrier tracking loop for weak GNSS signals which processes the coherent integration results instead of the sampling data. First, the cost function of the MLE of signal parameters such as signal amplitude, carrier phase, and Doppler frequency are used to derive a MLE discriminator function. The optimal value of the cost function is searched by an efficient Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method iteratively. Its performance including Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), dynamic characteristics and computation burden are analyzed by numerical techniques. Second, an adaptive Kalman filter is designed for the MLE discriminator to obtain smooth estimates of carrier phase and frequency. The performance of the proposed loop, in terms of sensitivity, accuracy and bit error rate, is compared with conventional methods by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations both in pedestrian-level and vehicle-level dynamic circumstances. Finally, an optimal loop which combines the proposed method and conventional method is designed to achieve the optimal performance both in weak and strong signal circumstances.

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block bootstrap (MABB) ) based on the explicit objective functions of minimizing the relative bias and relative root mean square error in estimating the storage capacity of the reservoir. The optimal parameter set of the hybrid model is obtained based on the search over a multi- dimensional parameter space (involving simultaneous exploration of the parametric (PAR(1)) as well as the non-parametric (MABB) components). This is achieved using the efficient evolutionary search based optimization tool namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm - II (NSGA-II). This approach helps in reducing the drudgery involved in the process of manual selection of the hybrid model, in addition to predicting the basic summary statistics dependence structure, marginal distribution and water-use characteristics accurately. The proposed optimization framework is used to model the multi-season streamflows of River Beaver and River Weber of USA. In case of both the rivers, the proposed GA-based hybrid model yields a much better prediction of the storage capacity (where simultaneous exploration of both parametric and non-parametric components is done) when compared with the MLE-based hybrid models (where the hybrid model selection is done in two stages, thus probably resulting in a sub-optimal model). This framework can be further extended to include different linear/non-linear hybrid stochastic models at other temporal and spatial scales as well.

Information's role in the estimation of chaotic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Daniel Fred

1998-11-01

Researchers have proposed several methods designed to recover chaotic signals from noise-corrupted observations. While the methods vary, their qualitative performance does not: in low levels of noise all methods effectively recover the underlying signal; in high levels of noise no method can recover the underlying signal to any meaningful degree of accuracy. Of the methods proposed to date, all represent sub-optimal estimators. So: Is the inability to recover the signal in high noise levels simply a consequence of estimator sub-optimality? Or is estimator failure actually a manifestation of some intrinsic property of chaos itself? These questions are answered by deriving an optimal estimator for a class of chaotic systems and noting that it, too, fails in high levels of noise. An exact, closed- form expression for the estimator is obtained for a class of chaotic systems whose signals are solutions to a set of linear (but noncausal) difference equations. The existence of this linear description circumvents the difficulties normally encountered when manipulating the nonlinear (but causal) expressions that govern. chaotic behavior. The reason why even the optimal estimator fails to recover underlying chaotic signals in high levels of noise has its roots in information theory. At such noise levels, the mutual information linking the corrupted observations to the underlying signal is essentially nil, reducing the estimator to a simple guessing strategy based solely on a priori statistics. Entropy, long the common bond between information theory and dynamical systems, is actually one aspect of a far more complete characterization of information sources: the rate distortion function. Determining the rate distortion function associated with the class of chaotic systems considered in this work provides bounds on estimator performance in high levels of noise. Finally, a slight modification of the linear description leads to a method of synthesizing on limited precision platforms ``pseudo-chaotic'' sequences that mimic true chaotic behavior to any finite degree of precision and duration. The use of such a technique in spread-spectrum communications is considered.

An improved simulation based biomechanical model to estimate static muscle loadings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar L.; Marras, William S.; Woolford, Barbara

1991-01-01

The objectives of this study are to show that the characteristics of an intact muscle are different from those of an isolated muscle and to describe a simulation based model. This model, unlike the optimization based models, accounts for the redundancy in the musculoskeletal system in predicting the amount of forces generated within a muscle. The results of this study show that the loading of the primary muscle is increased by the presence of other muscle activities. Hence, the previous models based on optimization techniques may underestimate the severity of the muscle and joint loadings which occur during manual material handling tasks.

Salient object detection based on discriminative boundary and multiple cues integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Qingzhu; Wu, Zemin; Tian, Chang; Liu, Tao; Zeng, Mingyong; Hu, Lei

2016-01-01

In recent years, many saliency models have achieved good performance by taking the image boundary as the background prior. However, if all boundaries of an image are equally and artificially selected as background, misjudgment may happen when the object touches the boundary. We propose an algorithm called weighted contrast optimization based on discriminative boundary (wCODB). First, a background estimation model is reliably constructed through discriminating each boundary via Hausdorff distance. Second, the background-only weighted contrast is improved by fore-background weighted contrast, which is optimized through weight-adjustable optimization framework. Then to objectively estimate the quality of a saliency map, a simple but effective metric called spatial distribution of saliency map and mean saliency in covered window ratio (MSR) is designed. Finally, in order to further promote the detection result using MSR as the weight, we propose a saliency fusion framework to integrate three other cues-uniqueness, distribution, and coherence from three representative methods into our wCODB model. Extensive experiments on six public datasets demonstrate that our wCODB performs favorably against most of the methods based on boundary, and the integrated result outperforms all state-of-the-art methods.

Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-04-01

Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Statistically optimal analysis of state-discretized trajectory data from multiple thermodynamic states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Hao; Mey, Antonia S. J. S.; Noé, Frank

2014-12-07

We propose a discrete transition-based reweighting analysis method (dTRAM) for analyzing configuration-space-discretized simulation trajectories produced at different thermodynamic states (temperatures, Hamiltonians, etc.) dTRAM provides maximum-likelihood estimates of stationary quantities (probabilities, free energies, expectation values) at any thermodynamic state. In contrast to the weighted histogram analysis method (WHAM), dTRAM does not require data to be sampled from global equilibrium, and can thus produce superior estimates for enhanced sampling data such as parallel/simulated tempering, replica exchange, umbrella sampling, or metadynamics. In addition, dTRAM provides optimal estimates of Markov state models (MSMs) from the discretized state-space trajectories at all thermodynamic states. Under suitablemore » conditions, these MSMs can be used to calculate kinetic quantities (e.g., rates, timescales). In the limit of a single thermodynamic state, dTRAM estimates a maximum likelihood reversible MSM, while in the limit of uncorrelated sampling data, dTRAM is identical to WHAM. dTRAM is thus a generalization to both estimators.« less

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadi, Peiman; Engelke, Sebastian; Davison, Anthony C.

2018-01-01

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate high quantiles at a target location that has no observations. The similarity of this group to the ungauged location is measured in terms of a hydrological distance measuring differences in physical and meteorological catchment attributes. We develop a statistical method for estimation of high return levels based on regionalizing the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution. The group of stations is chosen by optimizing over the attribute weights of the hydrological distance, ensuring similarity and in-group homogeneity. Our method is applied to discharge data from the Rhine basin in Switzerland, and its performance at ungauged locations is compared to that of other regionalization methods. For gauged locations we show how our approach improves the estimation uncertainty for long return periods by combining local measurements with those from the chosen group.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugano, Yasutaka; Mizuta, Masahiro; Takao, Seishin

Purpose: Radiotherapy of solid tumors has been performed with various fractionation regimens such as multi- and hypofractionations. However, the ability to optimize the fractionation regimen considering the physical dose distribution remains insufficient. This study aims to optimize the fractionation regimen, in which the authors propose a graphical method for selecting the optimal number of fractions (n) and dose per fraction (d) based on dose–volume histograms for tumor and normal tissues of organs around the tumor. Methods: Modified linear-quadratic models were employed to estimate the radiation effects on the tumor and an organ at risk (OAR), where the repopulation of themore » tumor cells and the linearity of the dose-response curve in the high dose range of the surviving fraction were considered. The minimization problem for the damage effect on the OAR was solved under the constraint that the radiation effect on the tumor is fixed by a graphical method. Here, the damage effect on the OAR was estimated based on the dose–volume histogram. Results: It was found that the optimization of fractionation scheme incorporating the dose–volume histogram is possible by employing appropriate cell surviving models. The graphical method considering the repopulation of tumor cells and a rectilinear response in the high dose range enables them to derive the optimal number of fractions and dose per fraction. For example, in the treatment of prostate cancer, the optimal fractionation was suggested to lie in the range of 8–32 fractions with a daily dose of 2.2–6.3 Gy. Conclusions: It is possible to optimize the number of fractions and dose per fraction based on the physical dose distribution (i.e., dose–volume histogram) by the graphical method considering the effects on tumor and OARs around the tumor. This method may stipulate a new guideline to optimize the fractionation regimen for physics-guided fractionation.« less

Adjoint-Based Algorithms for Adaptation and Design Optimizations on Unstructured Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nielsen, Eric J.

2006-01-01

Schemes based on discrete adjoint algorithms present several exciting opportunities for significantly advancing the current state of the art in computational fluid dynamics. Such methods provide an extremely efficient means for obtaining discretely consistent sensitivity information for hundreds of design variables, opening the door to rigorous, automated design optimization of complex aerospace configuration using the Navier-Stokes equation. Moreover, the discrete adjoint formulation provides a mathematically rigorous foundation for mesh adaptation and systematic reduction of spatial discretization error. Error estimates are also an inherent by-product of an adjoint-based approach, valuable information that is virtually non-existent in today's large-scale CFD simulations. An overview of the adjoint-based algorithm work at NASA Langley Research Center is presented, with examples demonstrating the potential impact on complex computational problems related to design optimization as well as mesh adaptation.

Analysis of long term trends of precipitation estimates acquired using radar network in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tugrul Yilmaz, M.; Yucel, Ismail; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

2016-04-01

Precipitation estimates, a vital input in many hydrological and agricultural studies, can be obtained using many different platforms (ground station-, radar-, model-, satellite-based). Satellite- and model-based estimates are spatially continuous datasets, however they lack the high resolution information many applications often require. Station-based values are actual precipitation observations, however they suffer from their nature that they are point data. These datasets may be interpolated however such end-products may have large errors over remote locations with different climate/topography/etc than the areas stations are installed. Radars have the particular advantage of having high spatial resolution information over land even though accuracy of radar-based precipitation estimates depends on the Z-R relationship, mountain blockage, target distance from the radar, spurious echoes resulting from anomalous propagation of the radar beam, bright band contamination and ground clutter. A viable method to obtain spatially and temporally high resolution consistent precipitation information is merging radar and station data to take advantage of each retrieval platform. An optimally merged product is particularly important in Turkey where complex topography exerts strong controls on the precipitation regime and in turn hampers observation efforts. There are currently 10 (additional 7 are planned) weather radars over Turkey obtaining precipitation information since 2007. This study aims to optimally merge radar precipitation data with station based observations to introduce a station-radar blended precipitation product. This study was supported by TUBITAK fund # 114Y676.

Estimating Function Approaches for Spatial Point Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chong

Spatial point pattern data consist of locations of events that are often of interest in biological and ecological studies. Such data are commonly viewed as a realization from a stochastic process called spatial point process. To fit a parametric spatial point process model to such data, likelihood-based methods have been widely studied. However, while maximum likelihood estimation is often too computationally intensive for Cox and cluster processes, pairwise likelihood methods such as composite likelihood, Palm likelihood usually suffer from the loss of information due to the ignorance of correlation among pairs. For many types of correlated data other than spatial point processes, when likelihood-based approaches are not desirable, estimating functions have been widely used for model fitting. In this dissertation, we explore the estimating function approaches for fitting spatial point process models. These approaches, which are based on the asymptotic optimal estimating function theories, can be used to incorporate the correlation among data and yield more efficient estimators. We conducted a series of studies to demonstrate that these estmating function approaches are good alternatives to balance the trade-off between computation complexity and estimating efficiency. First, we propose a new estimating procedure that improves the efficiency of pairwise composite likelihood method in estimating clustering parameters. Our approach combines estimating functions derived from pairwise composite likeli-hood estimation and estimating functions that account for correlations among the pairwise contributions. Our method can be used to fit a variety of parametric spatial point process models and can yield more efficient estimators for the clustering parameters than pairwise composite likelihood estimation. We demonstrate its efficacy through a simulation study and an application to the longleaf pine data. Second, we further explore the quasi-likelihood approach on fitting second-order intensity function of spatial point processes. However, the original second-order quasi-likelihood is barely feasible due to the intense computation and high memory requirement needed to solve a large linear system. Motivated by the existence of geometric regular patterns in the stationary point processes, we find a lower dimension representation of the optimal weight function and propose a reduced second-order quasi-likelihood approach. Through a simulation study, we show that the proposed method not only demonstrates superior performance in fitting the clustering parameter but also merits in the relaxation of the constraint of the tuning parameter, H. Third, we studied the quasi-likelihood type estimating funciton that is optimal in a certain class of first-order estimating functions for estimating the regression parameter in spatial point process models. Then, by using a novel spectral representation, we construct an implementation that is computationally much more efficient and can be applied to more general setup than the original quasi-likelihood method.

A quasi-dense matching approach and its calibration application with Internet photos.

PubMed

Wan, Yanli; Miao, Zhenjiang; Wu, Q M Jonathan; Wang, Xifu; Tang, Zhen; Wang, Zhifei

2015-03-01

This paper proposes a quasi-dense matching approach to the automatic acquisition of camera parameters, which is required for recovering 3-D information from 2-D images. An affine transformation-based optimization model and a new matching cost function are used to acquire quasi-dense correspondences with high accuracy in each pair of views. These correspondences can be effectively detected and tracked at the sub-pixel level in multiviews with our neighboring view selection strategy. A two-layer iteration algorithm is proposed to optimize 3-D quasi-dense points and camera parameters. In the inner layer, different optimization strategies based on local photometric consistency and a global objective function are employed to optimize the 3-D quasi-dense points and camera parameters, respectively. In the outer layer, quasi-dense correspondences are resampled to guide a new estimation and optimization process of the camera parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm with several experiments.

A new Bayesian recursive technique for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaheil, Yasir H.; Gill, M. Kashif; McKee, Mac; Bastidas, Luis

2006-08-01

The performance of any model depends on how well its associated parameters are estimated. In the current application, a localized Bayesian recursive estimation (LOBARE) approach is devised for parameter estimation. The LOBARE methodology is an extension of the Bayesian recursive estimation (BARE) method. It is applied in this paper on two different types of models: an artificial intelligence (AI) model in the form of a support vector machine (SVM) application for forecasting soil moisture and a conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) model represented by the Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model. Support vector machines, based on statistical learning theory (SLT), represent the modeling task as a quadratic optimization problem and have already been used in various applications in hydrology. They require estimation of three parameters. SAC-SMA is a very well known model that estimates runoff. It has a 13-dimensional parameter space. In the LOBARE approach presented here, Bayesian inference is used in an iterative fashion to estimate the parameter space that will most likely enclose a best parameter set. This is done by narrowing the sampling space through updating the "parent" bounds based on their fitness. These bounds are actually the parameter sets that were selected by BARE runs on subspaces of the initial parameter space. The new approach results in faster convergence toward the optimal parameter set using minimum training/calibration data and fewer sets of parameter values. The efficacy of the localized methodology is also compared with the previously used BARE algorithm.

Economic policy optimization based on both one stochastic model and the parametric control theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashimov, Abdykappar; Borovskiy, Yuriy; Onalbekov, Mukhit

2016-06-01

A nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions is developed to describe two interacting national economies in the environment of the rest of the world. Parameters of nonlinear model are estimated based on its log-linearization by the Bayesian approach. The nonlinear model is verified by retroprognosis, estimation of stability indicators of mappings specified by the model, and estimation the degree of coincidence for results of internal and external shocks' effects on macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the estimated nonlinear model and its log-linearization. On the base of the nonlinear model, the parametric control problems of economic growth and volatility of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan are formulated and solved for two exchange rate regimes (free floating and managed floating exchange rates)

Optimization of a stand-alone Solar PV-Wind-DG Hybrid System for Distributed Power Generation at Sagar Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P. C.; Majumder, A.; Chakraborty, N.

2010-10-01

An estimation of a stand-alone solar PV and wind hybrid system for distributed power generation has been made based on the resources available at Sagar island, a remote area distant to grid operation. Optimization and sensitivity analysis has been made to evaluate the feasibility and size of the power generation unit. A comparison of the different modes of hybrid system has been studied. It has been estimated that Solar PV-Wind-DG hybrid system provides lesser per unit electricity cost. Capital investment is observed to be lesser when the system run with Wind-DG compared to Solar PV-DG.

An effective and optimal quality control approach for green energy manufacturing using design of experiments framework and evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saavedra, Juan Alejandro

Quality Control (QC) and Quality Assurance (QA) strategies vary significantly across industries in the manufacturing sector depending on the product being built. Such strategies range from simple statistical analysis and process controls, decision-making process of reworking, repairing, or scraping defective product. This study proposes an optimal QC methodology in order to include rework stations during the manufacturing process by identifying the amount and location of these workstations. The factors that are considered to optimize these stations are cost, cycle time, reworkability and rework benefit. The goal is to minimize the cost and cycle time of the process, but increase the reworkability and rework benefit. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to propose a cost estimation model that includes energy consumption, and (2) to propose an optimal QC methodology to identify quantity and location of rework workstations. The cost estimation model includes energy consumption as part of the product direct cost. The cost estimation model developed allows the user to calculate product direct cost as the quality sigma level of the process changes. This provides a benefit because a complete cost estimation calculation does not need to be performed every time the processes yield changes. This cost estimation model is then used for the QC strategy optimization process. In order to propose a methodology that provides an optimal QC strategy, the possible factors that affect QC were evaluated. A screening Design of Experiments (DOE) was performed on seven initial factors and identified 3 significant factors. It reflected that one response variable was not required for the optimization process. A full factorial DOE was estimated in order to verify the significant factors obtained previously. The QC strategy optimization is performed through a Genetic Algorithm (GA) which allows the evaluation of several solutions in order to obtain feasible optimal solutions. The GA evaluates possible solutions based on cost, cycle time, reworkability and rework benefit. Finally it provides several possible solutions because this is a multi-objective optimization problem. The solutions are presented as chromosomes that clearly state the amount and location of the rework stations. The user analyzes these solutions in order to select one by deciding which of the four factors considered is most important depending on the product being manufactured or the company's objective. The major contribution of this study is to provide the user with a methodology used to identify an effective and optimal QC strategy that incorporates the number and location of rework substations in order to minimize direct product cost, and cycle time, and maximize reworkability, and rework benefit.

Systematic parameter estimation in data-rich environments for cell signalling dynamics

PubMed Central

Nim, Tri Hieu; Luo, Le; Clément, Marie-Véronique; White, Jacob K.; Tucker-Kellogg, Lisa

2013-01-01

Motivation: Computational models of biological signalling networks, based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs), have generated many insights into cellular dynamics, but the model-building process typically requires estimating rate parameters based on experimentally observed concentrations. New proteomic methods can measure concentrations for all molecular species in a pathway; this creates a new opportunity to decompose the optimization of rate parameters. Results: In contrast with conventional parameter estimation methods that minimize the disagreement between simulated and observed concentrations, the SPEDRE method fits spline curves through observed concentration points, estimates derivatives and then matches the derivatives to the production and consumption of each species. This reformulation of the problem permits an extreme decomposition of the high-dimensional optimization into a product of low-dimensional factors, each factor enforcing the equality of one ODE at one time slice. Coarsely discretized solutions to the factors can be computed systematically. Then the discrete solutions are combined using loopy belief propagation, and refined using local optimization. SPEDRE has unique asymptotic behaviour with runtime polynomial in the number of molecules and timepoints, but exponential in the degree of the biochemical network. SPEDRE performance is comparatively evaluated on a novel model of Akt activation dynamics including redox-mediated inactivation of PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homologue). Availability and implementation: Web service, software and supplementary information are available at www.LtkLab.org/SPEDRE Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. Contact: LisaTK@nus.edu.sg PMID:23426255

Optimal hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter constrained by chemical mass balance, with application to selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Baker, Anna C.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hopple, Jessica A.

2017-06-26

Quantitative estimates of base flow are necessary to address questions concerning the vulnerability and response of the Nation’s water supply to natural and human-induced change in environmental conditions. An objective of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Project is to determine how hydrologic systems are affected by watershed characteristics, including land use, land cover, water use, climate, and natural characteristics (geology, soil type, and topography). An important component of any hydrologic system is base flow, generally described as the part of streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to stream channels by delayed (usually subsurface) pathways, and more specifically as the volumetric discharge of water, estimated at a measurement site or gage at the watershed scale, which represents groundwater that discharges directly or indirectly to stream reaches and is then routed to the measurement point.Hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter was applied to 225 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The recursive digital filter was chosen for the following reasons: it is based in part on the assumption that groundwater acts as a linear reservoir, and so has a physical basis; it has only two adjustable parameters (alpha, obtained directly from recession analysis, and beta, the maximum value of the base-flow index that can be modeled by the filter), which can be determined objectively and with the same physical basis of groundwater reservoir linearity, or that can be optimized by applying a chemical-mass-balance constraint. Base-flow estimates from the recursive digital filter were compared with those from five other hydrograph-separation methods with respect to two metrics: the long-term average fraction of streamflow that is base flow, or base-flow index, and the fraction of days where streamflow is entirely base flow. There was generally good correlation between the methods, with some biased slightly high and some biased slightly low compared to the recursive digital filter. There were notable differences between the days at base flow estimated by the different methods, with the recursive digital filter having a smaller range of values. This was attributed to how the different methods determine cessation of quickflow (the part of streamflow which is not base flow).For 109 Chesapeake Bay watershed sites with available specific conductance data, the parameters of the filter were optimized using a chemical-mass-balance constraint and two different models for the time-dependence of base-flow specific conductance. Sixty-seven models were deemed acceptable and the results compared well with non-optimized results. There are a number of limitations to the optimal hydrograph-separation approach resulting from the assumptions implicit in the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the approach taken to impose chemical mass balance (including tracer choice). These limitations may be evidenced by poor model results; conversely, poor model fit may provide an indication that two-component separation does not adequately describe the hydrologic system’s runoff response.The results of this study may be used to address a number of questions regarding the role of groundwater in understanding past changes in stream-water quality and forecasting possible future changes, such as the timing and magnitude of land-use and management practice effects on stream and groundwater quality. Ongoing and future modeling efforts may benefit from the estimates of base flow as calibration targets or as a means to filter chemical data to model base-flow loads and trends. Ultimately, base-flow estimation might provide the basis for future work aimed at improving the ability to quantify groundwater discharge, not only at the scale of a gaged watershed, but at the scale of individual reaches as well.

Perceptual attraction in tool use: evidence for a reliability-based weighting mechanism.

PubMed

Debats, Nienke B; Ernst, Marc O; Heuer, Herbert

2017-04-01

Humans are well able to operate tools whereby their hand movement is linked, via a kinematic transformation, to a spatially distant object moving in a separate plane of motion. An everyday example is controlling a cursor on a computer monitor. Despite these separate reference frames, the perceived positions of the hand and the object were found to be biased toward each other. We propose that this perceptual attraction is based on the principles by which the brain integrates redundant sensory information of single objects or events, known as optimal multisensory integration. That is, 1 ) sensory information about the hand and the tool are weighted according to their relative reliability (i.e., inverse variances), and 2 ) the unisensory reliabilities sum up in the integrated estimate. We assessed whether perceptual attraction is consistent with optimal multisensory integration model predictions. We used a cursor-control tool-use task in which we manipulated the relative reliability of the unisensory hand and cursor position estimates. The perceptual biases shifted according to these relative reliabilities, with an additional bias due to contextual factors that were present in experiment 1 but not in experiment 2 The biased position judgments' variances were, however, systematically larger than the predicted optimal variances. Our findings suggest that the perceptual attraction in tool use results from a reliability-based weighting mechanism similar to optimal multisensory integration, but that certain boundary conditions for optimality might not be satisfied. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Kinematic tool use is associated with a perceptual attraction between the spatially separated hand and the effective part of the tool. We provide a formal account for this phenomenon, thereby showing that the process behind it is similar to optimal integration of sensory information relating to single objects. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Performance of local optimization in single-plane fluoroscopic analysis for total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Prins, A H; Kaptein, B L; Stoel, B C; Lahaye, D J P; Valstar, E R

2015-11-05

Fluoroscopy-derived joint kinematics plays an important role in the evaluation of knee prostheses. Fluoroscopic analysis requires estimation of the 3D prosthesis pose from its 2D silhouette in the fluoroscopic image, by optimizing a dissimilarity measure. Currently, extensive user-interaction is needed, which makes analysis labor-intensive and operator-dependent. The aim of this study was to review five optimization methods for 3D pose estimation and to assess their performance in finding the correct solution. Two derivative-free optimizers (DHSAnn and IIPM) and three gradient-based optimizers (LevMar, DoNLP2 and IpOpt) were evaluated. For the latter three optimizers two different implementations were evaluated: one with a numerically approximated gradient and one with an analytically derived gradient for computational efficiency. On phantom data, all methods were able to find the 3D pose within 1mm and 1° in more than 85% of cases. IpOpt had the highest success-rate: 97%. On clinical data, the success rates were higher than 85% for the in-plane positions, but not for the rotations. IpOpt was the most expensive method and the application of an analytically derived gradients accelerated the gradient-based methods by a factor 3-4 without any differences in success rate. In conclusion, 85% of the frames can be analyzed automatically in clinical data and only 15% of the frames require manual supervision. The optimal success-rate on phantom data (97% with IpOpt) on phantom data indicates that even less supervision may become feasible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on feed forward neural network convex optimization for LiFePO4 battery parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xuepeng; Zhao, Dongmei

2017-08-01

Based on the modern facility agriculture automatic walking equipment LiFePO4 Battery, the parameter identification of LiFePO4 Battery is analyzed. An improved method for the process model of li battery is proposed, and the on-line estimation algorithm is presented. The parameters of the battery are identified using feed forward network neural convex optimization algorithm.

Approximation of optimal filter for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with quantised discrete-time observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bania, Piotr; Baranowski, Jerzy

2018-02-01

Quantisation of signals is a ubiquitous property of digital processing. In many cases, it introduces significant difficulties in state estimation and in consequence control. Popular approaches either do not address properly the problem of system disturbances or lead to biased estimates. Our intention was to find a method for state estimation for stochastic systems with quantised and discrete observation, that is free of the mentioned drawbacks. We have formulated a general form of the optimal filter derived by a solution of Fokker-Planck equation. We then propose the approximation method based on Galerkin projections. We illustrate the approach for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and derive analytic formulae for the approximated optimal filter, also extending the results for the variant with control. Operation is illustrated with numerical experiments and compared with classical discrete-continuous Kalman filter. Results of comparison are substantially in favour of our approach, with over 20 times lower mean squared error. The proposed filter is especially effective for signal amplitudes comparable to the quantisation thresholds. Additionally, it was observed that for high order of approximation, state estimate is very close to the true process value. The results open the possibilities of further analysis, especially for more complex processes.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment

PubMed Central

Wang, Lihong

2017-01-01

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert’s individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert’s overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment. PMID:28869570

Robust optimal design of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance experiments for skin microcirculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.; Raguin, L. G.

2010-10-01

Skin microcirculation plays an important role in several diseases including chronic venous insufficiency and diabetes. Magnetic resonance (MR) has the potential to provide quantitative information and a better penetration depth compared with other non-invasive methods such as laser Doppler flowmetry or optical coherence tomography. The continuous progress in hardware resulting in higher sensitivity must be coupled with advances in data acquisition schemes. In this article, we first introduce a physical model for quantifying skin microcirculation using diffusion-weighted MR (DWMR) based on an effective dispersion model for skin leading to a q-space model of the DWMR complex signal, and then design the corresponding robust optimal experiments. The resulting robust optimal DWMR protocols improve the worst-case quality of parameter estimates using nonlinear least squares optimization by exploiting available a priori knowledge of model parameters. Hence, our approach optimizes the gradient strengths and directions used in DWMR experiments to robustly minimize the size of the parameter estimation error with respect to model parameter uncertainty. Numerical evaluations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach as compared to conventional DWMR protocols.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

PubMed

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Update on HCDstruct - A Tool for Hybrid Wing Body Conceptual Design and Structural Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gern, Frank H.

2015-01-01

HCDstruct is a Matlab® based software tool to rapidly build a finite element model for structural optimization of hybrid wing body (HWB) aircraft at the conceptual design level. The tool uses outputs from a Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) performance analysis together with a conceptual outer mold line of the vehicle, e.g. created by Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP), to generate a set of MSC Nastran® bulk data files. These files can readily be used to perform a structural optimization and weight estimation using Nastran’s® Solution 200 multidisciplinary optimization solver. Initially developed at NASA Langley Research Center to perform increased fidelity conceptual level HWB centerbody structural analyses, HCDstruct has grown into a complete HWB structural sizing and weight estimation tool, including a fully flexible aeroelastic loads analysis. Recent upgrades to the tool include the expansion to a full wing tip-to-wing tip model for asymmetric analyses like engine out conditions and dynamic overswings, as well as a fully actuated trailing edge, featuring up to 15 independently actuated control surfaces and twin tails. Several example applications of the HCDstruct tool are presented.

The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT): Current Features And Adding Custom Functionality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conway, Darrel J.; Hughes, Steven P.

2010-01-01

The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is a software system for trajectory optimization, mission analysis, trajectory estimation, and prediction developed by NASA, the Air Force Research Lab, and private industry. GMAT's design and implementation are based on four basic principles: open source visibility for both the source code and design documentation; platform independence; modular design; and user extensibility. The system, released under the NASA Open Source Agreement, runs on Windows, Mac and Linux. User extensions, loaded at run time, have been built for optimization, trajectory visualization, force model extension, and estimation, by parties outside of GMAT's development group. The system has been used to optimize maneuvers for the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) and ARTEMIS missions and is being used for formation design and analysis for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS).

Improvement of the fringe analysis algorithm for wavelength scanning interferometry based on filter parameter optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Tao; Gao, Feng; Muhamedsalih, Hussam; Lou, Shan; Martin, Haydn; Jiang, Xiangqian

2018-03-20

The phase slope method which estimates height through fringe pattern frequency and the algorithm which estimates height through the fringe phase are the fringe analysis algorithms widely used in interferometry. Generally they both extract the phase information by filtering the signal in frequency domain after Fourier transform. Among the numerous papers in the literature about these algorithms, it is found that the design of the filter, which plays an important role, has never been discussed in detail. This paper focuses on the filter design in these algorithms for wavelength scanning interferometry (WSI), trying to optimize the parameters to acquire the optimal results. The spectral characteristics of the interference signal are analyzed first. The effective signal is found to be narrow-band (near single frequency), and the central frequency is calculated theoretically. Therefore, the position of the filter pass-band is determined. The width of the filter window is optimized with the simulation to balance the elimination of the noise and the ringing of the filter. Experimental validation of the approach is provided, and the results agree very well with the simulation. The experiment shows that accuracy can be improved by optimizing the filter design, especially when the signal quality, i.e., the signal noise ratio (SNR), is low. The proposed method also shows the potential of improving the immunity to the environmental noise by adapting the signal to acquire the optimal results through designing an adaptive filter once the signal SNR can be estimated accurately.

Degradation trend estimation of slewing bearing based on LSSVM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Chao; Chen, Jie; Hong, Rongjing; Feng, Yang; Li, Yuanyuan

2016-08-01

A novel prediction method is proposed based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to estimate the slewing bearing's degradation trend with small sample data. This method chooses the vibration signal which contains rich state information as the object of the study. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to fuse multi-feature vectors which could reflect the health state of slewing bearing, such as root mean square, kurtosis, wavelet energy entropy, and intrinsic mode function (IMF) energy. The degradation indicator fused by PCA can reflect the degradation more comprehensively and effectively. Then the degradation trend of slewing bearing was predicted by using the LSSVM model optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed method was demonstrated to be more accurate and effective by the whole life experiment of slewing bearing. Therefore, it can be applied in engineering practice.

Nonlinear finite element model updating for damage identification of civil structures using batch Bayesian estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.; de Callafon, Raymond A.

2017-02-01

This paper presents a framework for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage identification of civil structures. This framework integrates advanced mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling and analysis techniques with a batch Bayesian estimation approach to estimate time-invariant model parameters used in the FE model of the structure of interest. The framework uses input excitation and dynamic response of the structure and updates a nonlinear FE model of the structure to minimize the discrepancies between predicted and measured response time histories. The updated FE model can then be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and quantify the state of damage and predict the remaining useful life of the structure. As opposed to recursive estimation methods, in the batch Bayesian estimation approach, the entire time history of the input excitation and output response of the structure are used as a batch of data to estimate the FE model parameters through a number of iterations. In the case of non-informative prior, the batch Bayesian method leads to an extended maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method to estimate jointly time-invariant model parameters and the measurement noise amplitude. The extended ML estimation problem is solved efficiently using a gradient-based interior-point optimization algorithm. Gradient-based optimization algorithms require the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters to be identified. The FE response sensitivities are computed accurately and efficiently using the direct differentiation method (DDM). The estimation uncertainties are evaluated based on the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) theorem by computing the exact Fisher Information matrix using the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. The accuracy of the proposed uncertainty quantification approach is verified using a sampling approach based on the unscented transformation. Two validation studies, based on realistic structural FE models of a bridge pier and a moment resisting steel frame, are performed to validate the performance and accuracy of the presented nonlinear FE model updating approach and demonstrate its application to SHM. These validation studies show the excellent performance of the proposed framework for SHM and damage identification even in the presence of high measurement noise and/or way-out initial estimates of the model parameters. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of the input measurement noise on the performance of the proposed framework are illustrated and quantified through one of the validation studies.

An optimal-estimation-based aerosol retrieval algorithm using OMI near-UV observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, U.; Kim, J.; Ahn, C.; Torres, O.; Liu, X.; Bhartia, P. K.; Spurr, R. J. D.; Haffner, D.; Chance, K.; Holben, B. N.

2016-01-01

An optimal-estimation(OE)-based aerosol retrieval algorithm using the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) near-ultraviolet observation was developed in this study. The OE-based algorithm has the merit of providing useful estimates of errors simultaneously with the inversion products. Furthermore, instead of using the traditional look-up tables for inversion, it performs online radiative transfer calculations with the VLIDORT (linearized pseudo-spherical vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer code) to eliminate interpolation errors and improve stability. The measurements and inversion products of the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Network campaign in northeast Asia (DRAGON NE-Asia 2012) were used to validate the retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and single scattering albedo (SSA). The retrieved AOT and SSA at 388 nm have a correlation with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) products that is comparable to or better than the correlation with the operational product during the campaign. The OE-based estimated error represented the variance of actual biases of AOT at 388 nm between the retrieval and AERONET measurements better than the operational error estimates. The forward model parameter errors were analyzed separately for both AOT and SSA retrievals. The surface reflectance at 388 nm, the imaginary part of the refractive index at 354 nm, and the number fine-mode fraction (FMF) were found to be the most important parameters affecting the retrieval accuracy of AOT, while FMF was the most important parameter for the SSA retrieval. The additional information provided with the retrievals, including the estimated error and degrees of freedom, is expected to be valuable for relevant studies. Detailed advantages of using the OE method were described and discussed in this paper.

Optimal threshold estimator of a prognostic marker by maximizing a time-dependent expected utility function for a patient-centered stratified medicine.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Foucher, Yohann; Lorent, Marine; Giral, Magali; Tessier, Philippe

2018-06-01

Defining thresholds of prognostic markers is essential for stratified medicine. Such thresholds are mostly estimated from purely statistical measures regardless of patient preferences potentially leading to unacceptable medical decisions. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years are a widely used preferences-based measure of health outcomes. We develop a time-dependent Quality-Adjusted Life-Years-based expected utility function for censored data that should be maximized to estimate an optimal threshold. We performed a simulation study to compare estimated thresholds when using the proposed expected utility approach and purely statistical estimators. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology which was implemented in the R package ROCt ( www.divat.fr ). First, by reanalysing data of a randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of prednisone vs. placebo in patients with chronic liver cirrhosis, we demonstrate the utility of treating patients with a prothrombin level higher than 89%. Second, we reanalyze the data of an observational cohort of kidney transplant recipients: we conclude to the uselessness of the Kidney Transplant Failure Score to adapt the frequency of clinical visits. Applying such a patient-centered methodology may improve future transfer of novel prognostic scoring systems or markers in clinical practice.

Safe Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on a Physical Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lombaerts, Thomas J. J.; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John T.

2013-01-01

This paper discusses a computationally efficient algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. This approach differs from others since it is physically inspired. This more transparent approach allows interpreting data in each step, and it is assumed that these physical models based upon flight dynamics theory will therefore facilitate certification for future real life applications.

Estimation of Antenna Pose in the Earth Frame Using Camera and IMU Data from Mobile Phones

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhen; Jin, Bingwen; Geng, Weidong

2017-01-01

The poses of base station antennas play an important role in cellular network optimization. Existing methods of pose estimation are based on physical measurements performed either by tower climbers or using additional sensors attached to antennas. In this paper, we present a novel non-contact method of antenna pose measurement based on multi-view images of the antenna and inertial measurement unit (IMU) data captured by a mobile phone. Given a known 3D model of the antenna, we first estimate the antenna pose relative to the phone camera from the multi-view images and then employ the corresponding IMU data to transform the pose from the camera coordinate frame into the Earth coordinate frame. To enhance the resulting accuracy, we improve existing camera-IMU calibration models by introducing additional degrees of freedom between the IMU sensors and defining a new error metric based on both the downtilt and azimuth angles, instead of a unified rotational error metric, to refine the calibration. In comparison with existing camera-IMU calibration methods, our method achieves an improvement in azimuth accuracy of approximately 1.0 degree on average while maintaining the same level of downtilt accuracy. For the pose estimation in the camera coordinate frame, we propose an automatic method of initializing the optimization solver and generating bounding constraints on the resulting pose to achieve better accuracy. With this initialization, state-of-the-art visual pose estimation methods yield satisfactory results in more than 75% of cases when plugged into our pipeline, and our solution, which takes advantage of the constraints, achieves even lower estimation errors on the downtilt and azimuth angles, both on average (0.13 and 0.3 degrees lower, respectively) and in the worst case (0.15 and 7.3 degrees lower, respectively), according to an evaluation conducted on a dataset consisting of 65 groups of data. We show that both of our enhancements contribute to the performance improvement offered by the proposed estimation pipeline, which achieves downtilt and azimuth accuracies of respectively 0.47 and 5.6 degrees on average and 1.38 and 12.0 degrees in the worst case, thereby satisfying the accuracy requirements for network optimization in the telecommunication industry. PMID:28397765

Subsonic flight test evaluation of a propulsion system parameter estimation process for the F100 engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1992-01-01

Integrated engine-airframe optimal control technology may significantly improve aircraft performance. This technology requires a reliable and accurate parameter estimator to predict unmeasured variables. To develop this technology base, NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility (Edwards, CA), McDonnell Aircraft Company (St. Louis, MO), and Pratt & Whitney (West Palm Beach, FL) have developed and flight-tested an adaptive performance seeking control system which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the F-15 propulsion system. This paper presents flight and ground test evaluations of the propulsion system parameter estimation process used by the performance seeking control system. The estimator consists of a compact propulsion system model and an extended Kalman filter. The extended Laman filter estimates five engine component deviation parameters from measured inputs. The compact model uses measurements and Kalman-filter estimates as inputs to predict unmeasured propulsion parameters such as net propulsive force and fan stall margin. The ability to track trends and estimate absolute values of propulsion system parameters was demonstrated. For example, thrust stand results show a good correlation, especially in trends, between the performance seeking control estimated and measured thrust.

Application of Differential Evolutionary Optimization Methodology for Parameter Structure Identification in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Y.; Nishikawa, T.

2013-12-01

With the increasing complexity of parameter-structure identification (PSI) in groundwater modeling, there is a need for robust, fast, and accurate optimizers in the groundwater-hydrology field. For this work, PSI is defined as identifying parameter dimension, structure, and value. In this study, Voronoi tessellation and differential evolution (DE) are used to solve the optimal PSI problem. Voronoi tessellation is used for automatic parameterization, whereby stepwise regression and the error covariance matrix are used to determine the optimal parameter dimension. DE is a novel global optimizer that can be used to solve nonlinear, nondifferentiable, and multimodal optimization problems. It can be viewed as an improved version of genetic algorithms and employs a simple cycle of mutation, crossover, and selection operations. DE is used to estimate the optimal parameter structure and its associated values. A synthetic numerical experiment of continuous hydraulic conductivity distribution was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that DE can identify the global optimum effectively and efficiently. A sensitivity analysis of the control parameters (i.e., the population size, mutation scaling factor, crossover rate, and mutation schemes) was performed to examine their influence on the objective function. The proposed DE was then applied to solve a complex parameter-estimation problem for a small desert groundwater basin in Southern California. Hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, fault conductance, and recharge components were estimated simultaneously. Comparison of DE and a traditional gradient-based approach (PEST) shows DE to be more robust and efficient. The results of this work not only provide an alternative for PSI in groundwater models, but also extend DE applications towards solving complex, regional-scale water management optimization problems.

Statistical Learning of Origin-Specific Statically Optimal Individualized Treatment Rules

PubMed Central

van der Laan, Mark J.; Petersen, Maya L.

2008-01-01

Consider a longitudinal observational or controlled study in which one collects chronological data over time on a random sample of subjects. The time-dependent process one observes on each subject contains time-dependent covariates, time-dependent treatment actions, and an outcome process or single final outcome of interest. A statically optimal individualized treatment rule (as introduced in van der Laan et. al. (2005), Petersen et. al. (2007)) is a treatment rule which at any point in time conditions on a user-supplied subset of the past, computes the future static treatment regimen that maximizes a (conditional) mean future outcome of interest, and applies the first treatment action of the latter regimen. In particular, Petersen et. al. (2007) clarified that, in order to be statically optimal, an individualized treatment rule should not depend on the observed treatment mechanism. Petersen et. al. (2007) further developed estimators of statically optimal individualized treatment rules based on a past capturing all confounding of past treatment history on outcome. In practice, however, one typically wishes to find individualized treatment rules responding to a user-supplied subset of the complete observed history, which may not be sufficient to capture all confounding. The current article provides an important advance on Petersen et. al. (2007) by developing locally efficient double robust estimators of statically optimal individualized treatment rules responding to such a user-supplied subset of the past. However, failure to capture all confounding comes at a price; the static optimality of the resulting rules becomes origin-specific. We explain origin-specific static optimality, and discuss the practical importance of the proposed methodology. We further present the results of a data analysis in which we estimate a statically optimal rule for switching antiretroviral therapy among patients infected with resistant HIV virus. PMID:19122792

Optimal estimation of suspended-sediment concentrations in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.

2001-01-01

Optimal estimators are developed for computation of suspended-sediment concentrations in streams. The estimators are a function of parameters, computed by use of generalized least squares, which simultaneously account for effects of streamflow, seasonal variations in average sediment concentrations, a dynamic error component, and the uncertainty in concentration measurements. The parameters are used in a Kalman filter for on-line estimation and an associated smoother for off-line estimation of suspended-sediment concentrations. The accuracies of the optimal estimators are compared with alternative time-averaging interpolators and flow-weighting regression estimators by use of long-term daily-mean suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow data from 10 sites within the United States. For sampling intervals from 3 to 48 days, the standard errors of on-line and off-line optimal estimators ranged from 52.7 to 107%, and from 39.5 to 93.0%, respectively. The corresponding standard errors of linear and cubic-spline interpolators ranged from 48.8 to 158%, and from 50.6 to 176%, respectively. The standard errors of simple and multiple regression estimators, which did not vary with the sampling interval, were 124 and 105%, respectively. Thus, the optimal off-line estimator (Kalman smoother) had the lowest error characteristics of those evaluated. Because suspended-sediment concentrations are typically measured at less than 3-day intervals, use of optimal estimators will likely result in significant improvements in the accuracy of continuous suspended-sediment concentration records. Additional research on the integration of direct suspended-sediment concentration measurements and optimal estimators applied at hourly or shorter intervals is needed.

Estimating linear-nonlinear models using Rényi divergences

PubMed Central

Kouh, Minjoon; Sharpee, Tatyana O.

2009-01-01

This paper compares a family of methods for characterizing neural feature selectivity using natural stimuli in the framework of the linear-nonlinear model. In this model, the spike probability depends in a nonlinear way on a small number of stimulus dimensions. The relevant stimulus dimensions can be found by optimizing a Rényi divergence that quantifies a change in the stimulus distribution associated with the arrival of single spikes. Generally, good reconstructions can be obtained based on optimization of Rényi divergence of any order, even in the limit of small numbers of spikes. However, the smallest error is obtained when the Rényi divergence of order 1 is optimized. This type of optimization is equivalent to information maximization, and is shown to saturate the Cramér-Rao bound describing the smallest error allowed for any unbiased method. We also discuss conditions under which information maximization provides a convenient way to perform maximum likelihood estimation of linear-nonlinear models from neural data. PMID:19568981

Estimating linear-nonlinear models using Renyi divergences.

PubMed

Kouh, Minjoon; Sharpee, Tatyana O

2009-01-01

This article compares a family of methods for characterizing neural feature selectivity using natural stimuli in the framework of the linear-nonlinear model. In this model, the spike probability depends in a nonlinear way on a small number of stimulus dimensions. The relevant stimulus dimensions can be found by optimizing a Rényi divergence that quantifies a change in the stimulus distribution associated with the arrival of single spikes. Generally, good reconstructions can be obtained based on optimization of Rényi divergence of any order, even in the limit of small numbers of spikes. However, the smallest error is obtained when the Rényi divergence of order 1 is optimized. This type of optimization is equivalent to information maximization, and is shown to saturate the Cramer-Rao bound describing the smallest error allowed for any unbiased method. We also discuss conditions under which information maximization provides a convenient way to perform maximum likelihood estimation of linear-nonlinear models from neural data.

The Robustness of Designs for Trials with Nested Data against Incorrect Initial Intracluster Correlation Coefficient Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korendijk, Elly J. H.; Moerbeek, Mirjam; Maas, Cora J. M.

2010-01-01

In the case of trials with nested data, the optimal allocation of units depends on the budget, the costs, and the intracluster correlation coefficient. In general, the intracluster correlation coefficient is unknown in advance and an initial guess has to be made based on published values or subject matter knowledge. This initial estimate is likely…

Product code optimization for determinate state LDPC decoding in robust image transmission.

PubMed

Thomos, Nikolaos; Boulgouris, Nikolaos V; Strintzis, Michael G

2006-08-01

We propose a novel scheme for error-resilient image transmission. The proposed scheme employs a product coder consisting of low-density parity check (LDPC) codes and Reed-Solomon codes in order to deal effectively with bit errors. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is based on the exploitation of determinate symbols in Tanner graph decoding of LDPC codes and a novel product code optimization technique based on error estimation. Experimental evaluation demonstrates the superiority of the proposed system in comparison to recent state-of-the-art techniques for image transmission.

Estimation of parameter uncertainty for an activated sludge model using Bayesian inference: a comparison with the frequentist method.

PubMed

Zonta, Zivko J; Flotats, Xavier; Magrí, Albert

2014-08-01

The procedure commonly used for the assessment of the parameters included in activated sludge models (ASMs) relies on the estimation of their optimal value within a confidence region (i.e. frequentist inference). Once optimal values are estimated, parameter uncertainty is computed through the covariance matrix. However, alternative approaches based on the consideration of the model parameters as probability distributions (i.e. Bayesian inference), may be of interest. The aim of this work is to apply (and compare) both Bayesian and frequentist inference methods when assessing uncertainty for an ASM-type model, which considers intracellular storage and biomass growth, simultaneously. Practical identifiability was addressed exclusively considering respirometric profiles based on the oxygen uptake rate and with the aid of probabilistic global sensitivity analysis. Parameter uncertainty was thus estimated according to both the Bayesian and frequentist inferential procedures. Results were compared in order to evidence the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. Since it was demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be reduced to a frequentist approach under particular hypotheses, the former can be considered as a more generalist methodology. Hence, the use of Bayesian inference is encouraged for tackling inferential issues in ASM environments.

Bayesian and “Anti-Bayesian” Biases in Sensory Integration for Action and Perception in the Size–Weight Illusion

PubMed Central

Brayanov, Jordan B.

2010-01-01

Which is heavier: a pound of lead or a pound of feathers? This classic trick question belies a simple but surprising truth: when lifted, the pound of lead feels heavier—a phenomenon known as the size–weight illusion. To estimate the weight of an object, our CNS combines two imperfect sources of information: a prior expectation, based on the object's appearance, and direct sensory information from lifting it. Bayes' theorem (or Bayes' law) defines the statistically optimal way to combine multiple information sources for maximally accurate estimation. Here we asked whether the mechanisms for combining these information sources produce statistically optimal weight estimates for both perceptions and actions. We first studied the ability of subjects to hold one hand steady when the other removed an object from it, under conditions in which sensory information about the object's weight sometimes conflicted with prior expectations based on its size. Since the ability to steady the supporting hand depends on the generation of a motor command that accounts for lift timing and object weight, hand motion can be used to gauge biases in weight estimation by the motor system. We found that these motor system weight estimates reflected the integration of prior expectations with real-time proprioceptive information in a Bayesian, statistically optimal fashion that discounted unexpected sensory information. This produces a motor size–weight illusion that consistently biases weight estimates toward prior expectations. In contrast, when subjects compared the weights of two objects, their perceptions defied Bayes' law, exaggerating the value of unexpected sensory information. This produces a perceptual size–weight illusion that biases weight perceptions away from prior expectations. We term this effect “anti-Bayesian” because the bias is opposite that seen in Bayesian integration. Our findings suggest that two fundamentally different strategies for the integration of prior expectations with sensory information coexist in the nervous system for weight estimation. PMID:20089821

An adjoint-based simultaneous estimation method of the asthenosphere's viscosity and afterslip using a fast and scalable finite-element adjoint solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agata, Ryoichiro; Ichimura, Tsuyoshi; Hori, Takane; Hirahara, Kazuro; Hashimoto, Chihiro; Hori, Muneo

2018-04-01

The simultaneous estimation of the asthenosphere's viscosity and coseismic slip/afterslip is expected to improve largely the consistency of the estimation results to observation data of crustal deformation collected in widely spread observation points, compared to estimations of slips only. Such an estimate can be formulated as a non-linear inverse problem of material properties of viscosity and input force that is equivalent to fault slips based on large-scale finite-element (FE) modeling of crustal deformation, in which the degree of freedom is in the order of 109. We formulated and developed a computationally efficient adjoint-based estimation method for this inverse problem, together with a fast and scalable FE solver for the associated forward and adjoint problems. In a numerical experiment that imitates the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the advantage of the proposed method is confirmed by comparing the estimated results with those obtained using simplified estimation methods. The computational cost required for the optimization shows that the proposed method enabled the targeted estimation to be completed with moderate amount of computational resources.

Online Cross-Validation-Based Ensemble Learning

PubMed Central

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2017-01-01

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. PMID:28474419

Blocking reduction of Landsat Thematic Mapper JPEG browse images using optimal PSNR estimated spectra adaptive postfiltering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linares, Irving; Mersereau, Russell M.; Smith, Mark J. T.

1994-01-01

Two representative sample images of Band 4 of the Landsat Thematic Mapper are compressed with the JPEG algorithm at 8:1, 16:1 and 24:1 Compression Ratios for experimental browsing purposes. We then apply the Optimal PSNR Estimated Spectra Adaptive Postfiltering (ESAP) algorithm to reduce the DCT blocking distortion. ESAP reduces the blocking distortion while preserving most of the image's edge information by adaptively postfiltering the decoded image using the block's spectral information already obtainable from each block's DCT coefficients. The algorithm iteratively applied a one dimensional log-sigmoid weighting function to the separable interpolated local block estimated spectra of the decoded image until it converges to the optimal PSNR with respect to the original using a 2-D steepest ascent search. Convergence is obtained in a few iterations for integer parameters. The optimal logsig parameters are transmitted to the decoder as a negligible byte of overhead data. A unique maxima is guaranteed due to the 2-D asymptotic exponential overshoot shape of the surface generated by the algorithm. ESAP is based on a DFT analysis of the DCT basis functions. It is implemented with pixel-by-pixel spatially adaptive separable FIR postfilters. PSNR objective improvements between 0.4 to 0.8 dB are shown together with their corresponding optimal PSNR adaptive postfiltered images.

Short-Term Distribution System State Forecast Based on Optimal Synchrophasor Sensor Placement and Extreme Learning Machine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system state forecasting, which aims to provide an accurate and high speed state forecasting with an optimal synchrophasor sensor placement (OSSP) based state estimator and an extreme learning machine (ELM) based forecaster. Specifically, considering the sensor installation cost and measurement error, an OSSP algorithm is proposed to reduce the number of synchrophasor sensor and keep the whole distribution system numerically and topologically observable. Then, the weighted least square (WLS) based system state estimator is used to produce the training data for the proposed forecaster. Traditionally, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vectormore » regression (SVR) are widely used in forecasting due to their nonlinear modeling capabilities. However, the ANN contains heavy computation load and the best parameters for SVR are difficult to obtain. In this paper, the ELM, which overcomes these drawbacks, is used to forecast the future system states with the historical system states. The proposed approach is effective and accurate based on the testing results.« less

Online EEG-Based Workload Adaptation of an Arithmetic Learning Environment.

PubMed

Walter, Carina; Rosenstiel, Wolfgang; Bogdan, Martin; Gerjets, Peter; Spüler, Martin

2017-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate a closed-loop EEG-based learning environment, that adapts instructional learning material online, to improve learning success in students during arithmetic learning. The amount of cognitive workload during learning is crucial for successful learning and should be held in the optimal range for each learner. Based on EEG data from 10 subjects, we created a prediction model that estimates the learner's workload to obtain an unobtrusive workload measure. Furthermore, we developed an interactive learning environment that uses the prediction model to estimate the learner's workload online based on the EEG data and adapt the difficulty of the learning material to keep the learner's workload in an optimal range. The EEG-based learning environment was used by 13 subjects to learn arithmetic addition in the octal number system, leading to a significant learning effect. The results suggest that it is feasible to use EEG as an unobtrusive measure of cognitive workload to adapt the learning content. Further it demonstrates that a promptly workload prediction is possible using a generalized prediction model without the need for a user-specific calibration.

Optimization of planar PIV-based pressure estimates in laminar and turbulent wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure, Jeffrey; Yarusevych, Serhiy

2017-05-01

The performance of four pressure estimation techniques using Eulerian material acceleration estimates from planar, two-component Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) data were evaluated in a bluff body wake. To allow for the ground truth comparison of the pressure estimates, direct numerical simulations of flow over a circular cylinder were used to obtain synthetic velocity fields. Direct numerical simulations were performed for Re_D = 100, 300, and 1575, spanning laminar, transitional, and turbulent wake regimes, respectively. A parametric study encompassing a range of temporal and spatial resolutions was performed for each Re_D. The effect of random noise typical of experimental velocity measurements was also evaluated. The results identified optimal temporal and spatial resolutions that minimize the propagation of random and truncation errors to the pressure field estimates. A model derived from linear error propagation through the material acceleration central difference estimators was developed to predict these optima, and showed good agreement with the results from common pressure estimation techniques. The results of the model are also shown to provide acceptable first-order approximations for sampling parameters that reduce error propagation when Lagrangian estimations of material acceleration are employed. For pressure integration based on planar PIV, the effect of flow three-dimensionality was also quantified, and shown to be most pronounced at higher Reynolds numbers downstream of the vortex formation region, where dominant vortices undergo substantial three-dimensional deformations. The results of the present study provide a priori recommendations for the use of pressure estimation techniques from experimental PIV measurements in vortex dominated laminar and turbulent wake flows.

Dynamic imaging model and parameter optimization for a star tracker.

PubMed

Yan, Jinyun; Jiang, Jie; Zhang, Guangjun

2016-03-21

Under dynamic conditions, star spots move across the image plane of a star tracker and form a smeared star image. This smearing effect increases errors in star position estimation and degrades attitude accuracy. First, an analytical energy distribution model of a smeared star spot is established based on a line segment spread function because the dynamic imaging process of a star tracker is equivalent to the static imaging process of linear light sources. The proposed model, which has a clear physical meaning, explicitly reflects the key parameters of the imaging process, including incident flux, exposure time, velocity of a star spot in an image plane, and Gaussian radius. Furthermore, an analytical expression of the centroiding error of the smeared star spot is derived using the proposed model. An accurate and comprehensive evaluation of centroiding accuracy is obtained based on the expression. Moreover, analytical solutions of the optimal parameters are derived to achieve the best performance in centroid estimation. Finally, we perform numerical simulations and a night sky experiment to validate the correctness of the dynamic imaging model, the centroiding error expression, and the optimal parameters.

Application of iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design for the calibration of biocatalytic models.

PubMed

Van Daele, Timothy; Gernaey, Krist V; Ringborg, Rolf H; Börner, Tim; Heintz, Søren; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Grey, Carl; Krühne, Ulrich; Adlercreutz, Patrick; Nopens, Ingmar

2017-09-01

The aim of model calibration is to estimate unique parameter values from available experimental data, here applied to a biocatalytic process. The traditional approach of first gathering data followed by performing a model calibration is inefficient, since the information gathered during experimentation is not actively used to optimize the experimental design. By applying an iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design, the limited amount of data collected is used to design additional informative experiments. The algorithm is used here to calibrate the initial reaction rate of an ω-transaminase catalyzed reaction in a more accurate way. The parameter confidence region estimated from the Fisher Information Matrix is compared with the likelihood confidence region, which is not only more accurate but also a computationally more expensive method. As a result, an important deviation between both approaches is found, confirming that linearization methods should be applied with care for nonlinear models. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:1278-1293, 2017. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Robust Spatial Approximation of Laser Scanner Point Clouds by Means of Free-form Curve Approaches in Deformation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bureick, Johannes; Alkhatib, Hamza; Neumann, Ingo

2016-03-01

In many geodetic engineering applications it is necessary to solve the problem of describing a measured data point cloud, measured, e. g. by laser scanner, by means of free-form curves or surfaces, e. g., with B-Splines as basis functions. The state of the art approaches to determine B-Splines yields results which are seriously manipulated by the occurrence of data gaps and outliers. Optimal and robust B-Spline fitting depend, however, on optimal selection of the knot vector. Hence we combine in our approach Monte-Carlo methods and the location and curvature of the measured data in order to determine the knot vector of the B-Spline in such a way that no oscillating effects at the edges of data gaps occur. We introduce an optimized approach based on computed weights by means of resampling techniques. In order to minimize the effect of outliers, we apply robust M-estimators for the estimation of control points. The above mentioned approach will be applied to a multi-sensor system based on kinematic terrestrial laserscanning in the field of rail track inspection.

Sparse Covariance Matrix Estimation With Eigenvalue Constraints

PubMed Central

LIU, Han; WANG, Lie; ZHAO, Tuo

2014-01-01

We propose a new approach for estimating high-dimensional, positive-definite covariance matrices. Our method extends the generalized thresholding operator by adding an explicit eigenvalue constraint. The estimated covariance matrix simultaneously achieves sparsity and positive definiteness. The estimator is rate optimal in the minimax sense and we develop an efficient iterative soft-thresholding and projection algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. Empirically, we conduct thorough numerical experiments on simulated datasets as well as real data examples to illustrate the usefulness of our method. Supplementary materials for the article are available online. PMID:25620866

Structural estimation of a principal-agent model: moral hazard in medical insurance.

PubMed

Vera-Hernández, Marcos

2003-01-01

Despite the importance of principal-agent models in the development of modern economic theory, there are few estimations of these models. I recover the estimates of a principal-agent model and obtain an approximation to the optimal contract. The results show that out-of-pocket payments follow a concave profile with respect to costs of treatment. I estimate the welfare loss due to moral hazard, taking into account income effects. I also propose a new measure of moral hazard based on the conditional correlation between contractible and noncontractible variables.

A CU-Level Rate and Distortion Estimation Scheme for RDO of Hardware-Friendly HEVC Encoders Using Low-Complexity Integer DCTs.

PubMed

Lee, Bumshik; Kim, Munchurl

2016-08-01

In this paper, a low complexity coding unit (CU)-level rate and distortion estimation scheme is proposed for High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) hardware-friendly implementation where a Walsh-Hadamard transform (WHT)-based low-complexity integer discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for distortion estimation. Since HEVC adopts quadtree structures of coding blocks with hierarchical coding depths, it becomes more difficult to estimate accurate rate and distortion values without actually performing transform, quantization, inverse transform, de-quantization, and entropy coding. Furthermore, DCT for rate-distortion optimization (RDO) is computationally high, because it requires a number of multiplication and addition operations for various transform block sizes of 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-orders and requires recursive computations to decide the optimal depths of CU or transform unit. Therefore, full RDO-based encoding is highly complex, especially for low-power implementation of HEVC encoders. In this paper, a rate and distortion estimation scheme is proposed in CU levels based on a low-complexity integer DCT that can be computed in terms of WHT whose coefficients are produced in prediction stages. For rate and distortion estimation in CU levels, two orthogonal matrices of 4×4 and 8×8 , which are applied to WHT that are newly designed in a butterfly structure only with addition and shift operations. By applying the integer DCT based on the WHT and newly designed transforms in each CU block, the texture rate can precisely be estimated after quantization using the number of non-zero quantized coefficients and the distortion can also be precisely estimated in transform domain without de-quantization and inverse transform required. In addition, a non-texture rate estimation is proposed by using a pseudoentropy code to obtain accurate total rate estimates. The proposed rate and the distortion estimation scheme can effectively be used for HW-friendly implementation of HEVC encoders with 9.8% loss over HEVC full RDO, which much less than 20.3% and 30.2% loss of a conventional approach and Hadamard-only scheme, respectively.

Ab-initio study on the absorption spectrum of color change sapphire based on first-principles calculations with considering lattice relaxation-effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novita, Mega; Nagoshi, Hikari; Sudo, Akiho; Ogasawara, Kazuyoshi

2018-01-01

In this study, we performed an investigation on α-Al2O3: V3+ material, or the so-called color change sapphire, based on first-principles calculations without referring to any experimental parameter. The molecular orbital (MO) structure was estimated by the one-electron MO calculations using the discrete variational-Xα (DV-Xα) method. Next, the absorption spectra were estimated by the many-electron calculations using the discrete variational multi-electron (DVME) method. The effect of lattice relaxation on the crystal structures was estimated based on the first-principles band structure calculations. We performed geometry optimizations on the pure α-Al2O3 and with the impurity V3+ ion using Cambridge Serial Total Energy Package (CASTEP) code. The effect of energy corrections such as configuration dependence correction and correlation correction was also investigated in detail. The results revealed that the structural change on the α-Al2O3: V3+ resulted from the geometry optimization improved the calculated absorption spectra. By a combination of both the lattice relaxation-effect and the energy correction-effect improve the agreement to the experiment fact.

Robust Adaptive Beamforming with Sensor Position Errors Using Weighted Subspace Fitting-Based Covariance Matrix Reconstruction.

PubMed

Chen, Peng; Yang, Yixin; Wang, Yong; Ma, Yuanliang

2018-05-08

When sensor position errors exist, the performance of recently proposed interference-plus-noise covariance matrix (INCM)-based adaptive beamformers may be severely degraded. In this paper, we propose a weighted subspace fitting-based INCM reconstruction algorithm to overcome sensor displacement for linear arrays. By estimating the rough signal directions, we construct a novel possible mismatched steering vector (SV) set. We analyze the proximity of the signal subspace from the sample covariance matrix (SCM) and the space spanned by the possible mismatched SV set. After solving an iterative optimization problem, we reconstruct the INCM using the estimated sensor position errors. Then we estimate the SV of the desired signal by solving an optimization problem with the reconstructed INCM. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is its robustness against SV mismatches dominated by unknown sensor position errors. Numerical examples show that even if the position errors are up to half of the assumed sensor spacing, the output signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio is only reduced by 4 dB. Beam patterns plotted using experiment data show that the interference suppression capability of the proposed beamformer outperforms other tested beamformers.

Comparing population and incident data for optimal air ambulance base locations in Norway.

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; van den Berg, Pieter L; Lindner, Thomas; Zakariassen, Erik; Uleberg, Oddvar; Aardal, Karen; van Essen, J Theresia

2018-05-24

Helicopter emergency medical services are important in many health care systems. Norway has a nationwide physician manned air ambulance service servicing a country with large geographical variations in population density and incident frequencies. The aim of the study was to compare optimal air ambulance base locations using both population and incident data. We used municipality population and incident data for Norway from 2015. The 428 municipalities had a median (5-95 percentile) of 4675 (940-36,264) inhabitants and 10 (2-38) incidents. Optimal helicopter base locations were estimated using the Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) optimization model, exploring the number and location of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for time thresholds 30 and 45 min, in green field scenarios and conditioned on the existing base structure. The existing bases covered 96.90% of the population and 91.86% of the incidents for time threshold 45 min. Correlation between municipality population and incident frequencies was -0.0027, and optimal base locations varied markedly between the two data types, particularly when lowering the target time. The optimal solution using population density data put focus on the greater Oslo area, where one third of Norwegians live, while using incident data put focus on low population high incident areas, such as northern Norway and winter sport resorts. Using population density data as a proxy for incident frequency is not recommended, as the two data types lead to different optimal base locations. Lowering the target time increases the sensitivity to choice of data.

Optimal design of clinical trials with biologics using dose-time-response models.

PubMed

Lange, Markus R; Schmidli, Heinz

2014-12-30

Biologics, in particular monoclonal antibodies, are important therapies in serious diseases such as cancer, psoriasis, multiple sclerosis, or rheumatoid arthritis. While most conventional drugs are given daily, the effect of monoclonal antibodies often lasts for months, and hence, these biologics require less frequent dosing. A good understanding of the time-changing effect of the biologic for different doses is needed to determine both an adequate dose and an appropriate time-interval between doses. Clinical trials provide data to estimate the dose-time-response relationship with semi-mechanistic nonlinear regression models. We investigate how to best choose the doses and corresponding sample size allocations in such clinical trials, so that the nonlinear dose-time-response model can be precisely estimated. We consider both local and conservative Bayesian D-optimality criteria for the design of clinical trials with biologics. For determining the optimal designs, computer-intensive numerical methods are needed, and we focus here on the particle swarm optimization algorithm. This metaheuristic optimizer has been successfully used in various areas but has only recently been applied in the optimal design context. The equivalence theorem is used to verify the optimality of the designs. The methodology is illustrated based on results from a clinical study in patients with gout, treated by a monoclonal antibody. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulation of range imaging-based estimation of respiratory lung motion. Influence of noise, signal dimensionality and sampling patterns.

PubMed

Wilms, M; Werner, R; Blendowski, M; Ortmüller, J; Handels, H

2014-01-01

A major problem associated with the irradiation of thoracic and abdominal tumors is respiratory motion. In clinical practice, motion compensation approaches are frequently steered by low-dimensional breathing signals (e.g., spirometry) and patient-specific correspondence models, which are used to estimate the sought internal motion given a signal measurement. Recently, the use of multidimensional signals derived from range images of the moving skin surface has been proposed to better account for complex motion patterns. In this work, a simulation study is carried out to investigate the motion estimation accuracy of such multidimensional signals and the influence of noise, the signal dimensionality, and different sampling patterns (points, lines, regions). A diffeomorphic correspondence modeling framework is employed to relate multidimensional breathing signals derived from simulated range images to internal motion patterns represented by diffeomorphic non-linear transformations. Furthermore, an automatic approach for the selection of optimal signal combinations/patterns within this framework is presented. This simulation study focuses on lung motion estimation and is based on 28 4D CT data sets. The results show that the use of multidimensional signals instead of one-dimensional signals significantly improves the motion estimation accuracy, which is, however, highly affected by noise. Only small differences exist between different multidimensional sampling patterns (lines and regions). Automatically determined optimal combinations of points and lines do not lead to accuracy improvements compared to results obtained by using all points or lines. Our results show the potential of multidimensional breathing signals derived from range images for the model-based estimation of respiratory motion in radiation therapy.

Dynamic PET of human liver inflammation: impact of kinetic modeling with optimization-derived dual-blood input function.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Corwin, Michael T; Olson, Kristin A; Badawi, Ramsey D; Sarkar, Souvik

2018-05-30

The hallmark of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is hepatocellular inflammation and injury in the setting of hepatic steatosis. Recent work has indicated that dynamic 18F-FDG PET with kinetic modeling has the potential to assess hepatic inflammation noninvasively, while static FDG-PET did not show a promise. Because the liver has dual blood supplies, kinetic modeling of dynamic liver PET data is challenging in human studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate and identify a dual-input kinetic modeling approach for dynamic FDG-PET of human liver inflammation. Fourteen human patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were included in the study. Each patient underwent one-hour dynamic FDG-PET/CT scan and had liver biopsy within six weeks. Three models were tested for kinetic analysis: traditional two-tissue compartmental model with an image-derived single-blood input function (SBIF), model with population-based dual-blood input function (DBIF), and modified model with optimization-derived DBIF through a joint estimation framework. The three models were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC), F test and histopathologic inflammation reference. The results showed that the optimization-derived DBIF model improved the fitting of liver time activity curves and achieved lower AIC values and higher F values than the SBIF and population-based DBIF models in all patients. The optimization-derived model significantly increased FDG K1 estimates by 101% and 27% as compared with traditional SBIF and population-based DBIF. K1 by the optimization-derived model was significantly associated with histopathologic grades of liver inflammation while the other two models did not provide a statistical significance. In conclusion, modeling of DBIF is critical for kinetic analysis of dynamic liver FDG-PET data in human studies. The optimization-derived DBIF model is more appropriate than SBIF and population-based DBIF for dynamic FDG-PET of liver inflammation. © 2018 Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine.

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2011-01-01

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

An ecosystem-based assessment of hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) harvested by multi-gears and management implications in Korean waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Hee Joong; Zhang, Chang Ik; Lee, Eun Ji; Seo, Young Il

2015-06-01

Hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) has been traditionally harvested by multi-gear types in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, except for the East Sea (Sea of Japan) in Korean waters. Six different fishery types such as offshore stownet fishery, offshore longline fishery, large pair-trawl fishery, large purse seine fishery, large otter trawl fishery and offshore angling fishery target to harvest the hairtail stock accounting for about 90% of the total annual catch. We attempted to develop an ecosystem-based fisheries assessment approach, which determines the optimal allocation of catch quotas and fishing efforts for major fisheries. We conducted standardization of fishing effort for six types of hairtail fisheries using a general linear model (GLM), and then estimated maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY). Estimated MSY and MEY for the hairtail stock were estimated as 100,151 mt and 97,485 mt, respectively. In addition, we carried out an ecosystem-based risk analysis to obtain species risk index (SRI), which was applied to adjusting the optimal proportion of fishing effort for six hairtail fisheries as a penalty or an incentive. As a result, fishing effort ratios were adjusted by SRI for the six fisheries types. Also, the total allowable catch (TAC) was estimated as 97,485 mt and the maximum net profit at TAC by the hairtail fisheries was estimated as 778 billion won (USD 765 million).

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Hui; Faruque, Fazlay; Williams, Worth; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Crosson, William; Rickman, Douglas; Limaye, Ashutosh

2009-01-01

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.

Impacts of irrigation on groundwater depletion in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Yuqi; Lei, Huimin

2017-04-01

Groundwater resources is an essential water supply for agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) which is one of the most important food production areas in China. In the past decades, excessive groundwater-fed irrigation in this area has caused sharp decline in groundwater table. However, accurate monitoring on the net groundwater exploitation is still difficult, mainly due to a lack of complete groundwater exploitation monitoring network. This hinders an accurate evaluation of the effects of agricultural managements on shallow groundwater table. In this study, we use an existing method to estimate the net irrigation amount at the county level, and evaluate the effects of current agricultural management on groundwater depletion. We apply this method in five typical counties in the NCP to estimate annual net irrigation amount from 2002 to 2015, based on meteorological data (2002-2015) and remote sensing ET data (2002-2015) . First, an agro-hydrological model (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant, SWAP) is calibrated and validated at field scale based on the measured data from flux towers. Second, the model is established at reginal scale by spatial discretization. Third, we use an optimization tool (Parameter ESTimation, PEST) to optimize the irrigation parameter in SWAP so as the simulated evapotranspiration (ET) by SWAP is closest to the remote sensing ET. We expect that the simulated irrigation amount from the optimized parameter is the estimated net irrigation amount. Finally, the contribution of agricultural management to the observed groundwater depletion is assessed by calculating the groundwater balance which considers the estimated net irrigation amount, observed lateral groundwater, rainfall recharge, deep seepage, evaporation from phreatic water and domestic water use. The study is expected to give a scientific basis for alleviating the over-exploitation of groundwater resources in the area.

Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE): a global gridded synthesis ET estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobeichi, Sanaa; Abramowitz, Gab; Evans, Jason; Ukkola, Anna

2018-02-01

Accurate global gridded estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) are key to understanding water and energy budgets, in addition to being required for model evaluation. Several gridded ET products have already been developed which differ in their data requirements, the approaches used to derive them and their estimates, yet it is not clear which provides the most reliable estimates. This paper presents a new global ET dataset and associated uncertainty with monthly temporal resolution for 2000-2009. Six existing gridded ET products are combined using a weighting approach trained by observational datasets from 159 FLUXNET sites. The weighting method is based on a technique that provides an analytically optimal linear combination of ET products compared to site data and accounts for both the performance differences and error covariance between the participating ET products. We examine the performance of the weighting approach in several in-sample and out-of-sample tests that confirm that point-based estimates of flux towers provide information on the grid scale of these products. We also provide evidence that the weighted product performs better than its six constituent ET product members in four common metrics. Uncertainty in the ET estimate is derived by rescaling the spread of participating ET products so that their spread reflects the ability of the weighted mean estimate to match flux tower data. While issues in observational data and any common biases in participating ET datasets are limitations to the success of this approach, future datasets can easily be incorporated and enhance the derived product.

Rocket Based Combined Cycle Exchange Inlet Performance Estimation at Supersonic Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murzionak, Aliaksandr

A method to estimate the performance of an exchange inlet for a Rocket Based Combined Cycle engine is developed. This method is to be used for exchange inlet geometry optimization and as such should be able to predict properties that can be used in the design process within a reasonable amount of time to allow multiple configurations to be evaluated. The method is based on a curve fit of the shocks developed around the major components of the inlet using solutions for shocks around sharp cones and 2D estimations of the shocks around wedges with blunt leading edges. The total pressure drop across the estimated shocks as well as the mass flow rate through the exchange inlet are calculated. The estimations for a selected range of free-stream Mach numbers between 1.1 and 7 are compared against numerical finite volume method simulations which were performed using available commercial software (Ansys-CFX). The total pressure difference between the two methods is within 10% for the tested Mach numbers of 5 and below, while for the Mach 7 test case the difference is 30%. The mass flow rate on average differs by less than 5% for all tested cases with the maximum difference not exceeding 10%. The estimation method takes less than 3 seconds on 3.0 GHz single core processor to complete the calculations for a single flight condition as oppose to over 5 days on 8 cores at 2.4 GHz system while using 3D finite volume method simulation with 1.5 million elements mesh. This makes the estimation method suitable for the use with exchange inlet geometry optimization algorithm.

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration in sanitary sewer systems based on conductivity monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingkai; Liu, Yanchen; Cheng, Xun; Zhu, David Z.; Shi, Hanchang; Yuan, Zhiguo

2018-03-01

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration (RDII) in a sanitary sewer is difficult when RDII and overflow occur simultaneously. This study proposes a novel conductivity-based method for estimating RDII. The method separately decomposes rainfall-derived inflow (RDI) and rainfall-induced infiltration (RII) on the basis of conductivity data. Fast Fourier transform was adopted to analyze variations in the flow and water quality during dry weather. Nonlinear curve fitting based on the least squares algorithm was used to optimize parameters in the proposed RDII model. The method was successfully applied to real-life case studies, in which inflow and infiltration were successfully estimated for three typical rainfall events with total rainfall volumes of 6.25 mm (light), 28.15 mm (medium), and 178 mm (heavy). Uncertainties of model parameters were estimated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and were found to be acceptable. Compared with traditional flow-based methods, the proposed approach exhibits distinct advantages in estimating RDII and overflow, particularly when the two processes happen simultaneously.

A revised load estimation procedure for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yochum, Steven E.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s Chesapeake Bay River Input Program has updated the nutrient and suspended-sediment load data base for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers using a multiple-window, center-estimate regression methodology. The revised method optimizes the seven-parameter regression approach that has been used historically by the program. The revised method estimates load using the fifth or center year of a sliding 9-year window. Each year a new model is run for each site and constituent, the most recent year is added, and the previous 4 years of estimates are updated. The fifth year in the 9-year window is considered the best estimate and is kept in the data base. The last year of estimation shows the most change from the previous year?s estimate and this change approaches a minimum at the fifth year. Differences between loads computed using this revised methodology and the loads populating the historical data base have been noted but the load estimates do not typically change drastically. The data base resulting from the application of this revised methodology is populated by annual and monthly load estimates that are known with greater certainty than in the previous load data base.

Optimal non-linear health insurance.

PubMed

Blomqvist, A

1997-06-01

Most theoretical and empirical work on efficient health insurance has been based on models with linear insurance schedules (a constant co-insurance parameter). In this paper, dynamic optimization techniques are used to analyse the properties of optimal non-linear insurance schedules in a model similar to one originally considered by Spence and Zeckhauser (American Economic Review, 1971, 61, 380-387) and reminiscent of those that have been used in the literature on optimal income taxation. The results of a preliminary numerical example suggest that the welfare losses from the implicit subsidy to employer-financed health insurance under US tax law may be a good deal smaller than previously estimated using linear models.

Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

2016-10-01

Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

PubMed

Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

2012-06-01

The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

A distributed approach for optimizing cascaded classifier topologies in real-time stream mining systems.

PubMed

Foo, Brian; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2010-11-01

In this paper, we discuss distributed optimization techniques for configuring classifiers in a real-time, informationally-distributed stream mining system. Due to the large volume of streaming data, stream mining systems must often cope with overload, which can lead to poor performance and intolerable processing delay for real-time applications. Furthermore, optimizing over an entire system of classifiers is a difficult task since changing the filtering process at one classifier can impact both the feature values of data arriving at classifiers further downstream and thus, the classification performance achieved by an ensemble of classifiers, as well as the end-to-end processing delay. To address this problem, this paper makes three main contributions: 1) Based on classification and queuing theoretic models, we propose a utility metric that captures both the performance and the delay of a binary filtering classifier system. 2) We introduce a low-complexity framework for estimating the system utility by observing, estimating, and/or exchanging parameters between the inter-related classifiers deployed across the system. 3) We provide distributed algorithms to reconfigure the system, and analyze the algorithms based on their convergence properties, optimality, information exchange overhead, and rate of adaptation to non-stationary data sources. We provide results using different video classifier systems.

Direct position determination for digital modulation signals based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wan-Ting; Yu, Hong-yi; Du, Jian-Ping; Wang, Ding

2018-04-01

The Direct Position Determination (DPD) algorithm has been demonstrated to achieve a better accuracy with known signal waveforms. However, the signal waveform is difficult to be completely known in the actual positioning process. To solve the problem, we proposed a DPD method for digital modulation signals based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. First, a DPD model is established for known modulation signals and a cost function is obtained on symbol estimation. Second, as the optimization of the cost function is a nonlinear integer optimization problem, an improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is considered for the optimal symbol search. Simulations are carried out to show the higher position accuracy of the proposed DPD method and the convergence of the fitness function under different inertia weight and population size. On the one hand, the proposed algorithm can take full advantage of the signal feature to improve the positioning accuracy. On the other hand, the improved PSO algorithm can improve the efficiency of symbol search by nearly one hundred times to achieve a global optimal solution.

Optimal integer resolution for attitude determination using global positioning system signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis; Lightsey, E. Glenn

1998-01-01

In this paper, a new motion-based algorithm for GPS integer ambiguity resolution is derived. The first step of this algorithm converts the reference sightline vectors into body frame vectors. This is accomplished by an optimal vectorized transformation of the phase difference measurements. The result of this transformation leads to the conversion of the integer ambiguities to vectorized biases. This essentially converts the problem to the familiar magnetometer-bias determination problem, for which an optimal and efficient solution exists. Also, the formulation in this paper is re-derived to provide a sequential estimate, so that a suitable stopping condition can be found during the vehicle motion. The advantages of the new algorithm include: it does not require an a-priori estimate of the vehicle's attitude; it provides an inherent integrity check using a covariance-type expression; and it can sequentially estimate the ambiguities during the vehicle motion. The only disadvantage of the new algorithm is that it requires at least three non-coplanar baselines. The performance of the new algorithm is tested on a dynamic hardware simulator.

Application of the LSQR algorithm in non-parametric estimation of aerosol size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhenzong; Qi, Hong; Lew, Zhongyuan; Ruan, Liming; Tan, Heping; Luo, Kun

2016-05-01

Based on the Least Squares QR decomposition (LSQR) algorithm, the aerosol size distribution (ASD) is retrieved in non-parametric approach. The direct problem is solved by the Anomalous Diffraction Approximation (ADA) and the Lambert-Beer Law. An optimal wavelength selection method is developed to improve the retrieval accuracy of the ASD. The proposed optimal wavelength set is selected by the method which can make the measurement signals sensitive to wavelength and decrease the degree of the ill-condition of coefficient matrix of linear systems effectively to enhance the anti-interference ability of retrieval results. Two common kinds of monomodal and bimodal ASDs, log-normal (L-N) and Gamma distributions, are estimated, respectively. Numerical tests show that the LSQR algorithm can be successfully applied to retrieve the ASD with high stability in the presence of random noise and low susceptibility to the shape of distributions. Finally, the experimental measurement ASD over Harbin in China is recovered reasonably. All the results confirm that the LSQR algorithm combined with the optimal wavelength selection method is an effective and reliable technique in non-parametric estimation of ASD.

Wing box transonic-flutter suppression using piezoelectric self-sensing actuators attached to skin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otiefy, R. A. H.; Negm, H. M.

2010-12-01

The main objective of this research is to study the capability of piezoelectric (PZT) self-sensing actuators to suppress the transonic wing box flutter, which is a flow-structure interaction phenomenon. The unsteady general frequency modified transonic small disturbance (TSD) equation is used to model the transonic flow about the wing. The wing box structure and piezoelectric actuators are modeled using the equivalent plate method, which is based on the first order shear deformation plate theory (FSDPT). The piezoelectric actuators are bonded to the skin. The optimal electromechanical coupling conditions between the piezoelectric actuators and the wing are collected from previous work. Three main different control strategies, a linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) which combines the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with the Kalman filter estimator (KFE), an optimal static output feedback (SOF), and a classic feedback controller (CFC), are studied and compared. The optimum actuator and sensor locations are determined using the norm of feedback control gains (NFCG) and norm of Kalman filter estimator gains (NKFEG) respectively. A genetic algorithm (GA) optimization technique is used to calculate the controller and estimator parameters to achieve a target response.

Validation of a pair of computer codes for estimation and optimization of subsonic aerodynamic performance of simple hinged-flap systems for thin swept wings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Harry W.; Darden, Christine M.

1988-01-01

Extensive correlations of computer code results with experimental data are employed to illustrate the use of linearized theory attached flow methods for the estimation and optimization of the aerodynamic performance of simple hinged flap systems. Use of attached flow methods is based on the premise that high levels of aerodynamic efficiency require a flow that is as nearly attached as circumstances permit. A variety of swept wing configurations are considered ranging from fighters to supersonic transports, all with leading- and trailing-edge flaps for enhancement of subsonic aerodynamic efficiency. The results indicate that linearized theory attached flow computer code methods provide a rational basis for the estimation and optimization of flap system aerodynamic performance at subsonic speeds. The analysis also indicates that vortex flap design is not an opposing approach but is closely related to attached flow design concepts. The successful vortex flap design actually suppresses the formation of detached vortices to produce a small vortex which is restricted almost entirely to the leading edge flap itself.

Validation of a computer code for analysis of subsonic aerodynamic performance of wings with flaps in combination with a canard or horizontal tail and an application to optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Harry W.; Darden, Christine M.; Mann, Michael J.

1990-01-01

Extensive correlations of computer code results with experimental data are employed to illustrate the use of a linearized theory, attached flow method for the estimation and optimization of the longitudinal aerodynamic performance of wing-canard and wing-horizontal tail configurations which may employ simple hinged flap systems. Use of an attached flow method is based on the premise that high levels of aerodynamic efficiency require a flow that is as nearly attached as circumstances permit. The results indicate that linearized theory, attached flow, computer code methods (modified to include estimated attainable leading-edge thrust and an approximate representation of vortex forces) provide a rational basis for the estimation and optimization of aerodynamic performance at subsonic speeds below the drag rise Mach number. Generally, good prediction of aerodynamic performance, as measured by the suction parameter, can be expected for near optimum combinations of canard or horizontal tail incidence and leading- and trailing-edge flap deflections at a given lift coefficient (conditions which tend to produce a predominantly attached flow).

The Event Detection and the Apparent Velocity Estimation Based on Computer Vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimojo, M.

2012-08-01

The high spatial and time resolution data obtained by the telescopes aboard Hinode revealed the new interesting dynamics in solar atmosphere. In order to detect such events and estimate the velocity of dynamics automatically, we examined the estimation methods of the optical flow based on the OpenCV that is the computer vision library. We applied the methods to the prominence eruption observed by NoRH, and the polar X-ray jet observed by XRT. As a result, it is clear that the methods work well for solar images if the images are optimized for the methods. It indicates that the optical flow estimation methods in the OpenCV library are very useful to analyze the solar phenomena.

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2001-01-01

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Approximation Model Building for Reliability & Maintainability Characteristics of Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Morris, W. Douglas; White, Nancy H.; Lepsch, Roger A.; Brown, Richard W.

2000-01-01

This paper describes the development of parametric models for estimating operational reliability and maintainability (R&M) characteristics for reusable vehicle concepts, based on vehicle size and technology support level. A R&M analysis tool (RMAT) and response surface methods are utilized to build parametric approximation models for rapidly estimating operational R&M characteristics such as mission completion reliability. These models that approximate RMAT, can then be utilized for fast analysis of operational requirements, for lifecycle cost estimating and for multidisciplinary sign optimization.

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1976-01-01

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Medial-based deformable models in nonconvex shape-spaces for medical image segmentation.

PubMed

McIntosh, Chris; Hamarneh, Ghassan

2012-01-01

We explore the application of genetic algorithms (GA) to deformable models through the proposition of a novel method for medical image segmentation that combines GA with nonconvex, localized, medial-based shape statistics. We replace the more typical gradient descent optimizer used in deformable models with GA, and the convex, implicit, global shape statistics with nonconvex, explicit, localized ones. Specifically, we propose GA to reduce typical deformable model weaknesses pertaining to model initialization, pose estimation and local minima, through the simultaneous evolution of a large number of models. Furthermore, we constrain the evolution, and thus reduce the size of the search-space, by using statistically-based deformable models whose deformations are intuitive (stretch, bulge, bend) and are driven in terms of localized principal modes of variation, instead of modes of variation across the entire shape that often fail to capture localized shape changes. Although GA are not guaranteed to achieve the global optima, our method compares favorably to the prevalent optimization techniques, convex/nonconvex gradient-based optimizers and to globally optimal graph-theoretic combinatorial optimization techniques, when applied to the task of corpus callosum segmentation in 50 mid-sagittal brain magnetic resonance images.

Time-optimal control of the spacecraft trajectories in the Earth-Moon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starinova, O. L.; Fain, M. K.; Materova, I. L.

2017-01-01

This paper outlines the multiparametric optimization of the L1-L2 and L2-L1 missions in the Earth-Moon system using electric propulsion. The optimal control laws are obtained using the Fedorenko successful linearization method to estimate the derivatives and the gradient method to optimize the control laws. The study of the transfers is based on the restricted circular three-body problem. The mathematical model of the missions is described within the barycentric system of coordinates. The optimization criterion is the total flight time. The perturbation from the Earth, the Moon and the Sun are taking into account. The impact of the shaded areas, induced by the Earth and the Moon, is also accounted. As the results of the optimization we obtained optimal control laws, corresponding trajectories and minimal total flight times.

Multiple UAV Cooperation for Wildfire Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhongjie

Wildfires have been a major factor in the development and management of the world's forest. An accurate assessment of wildfire status is imperative for fire management. This thesis is dedicated to the topic of utilizing multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to cooperatively monitor a large-scale wildfire. This is achieved through wildfire spreading situation estimation based on on-line measurements and wise cooperation strategy to ensure efficiency. First, based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of the wildfire propagation behavior, a wildfire model and a Kalman filter-based method are proposed to estimate the wildfire rate of spread and the fire front contour profile. With the enormous on-line measurements from on-board sensors of UAVs, the proposed method allows a wildfire monitoring mission to benefit from on-line information updating, increased flexibility, and accurate estimation. An independent wildfire simulator is utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Second, based on the filter analysis, wildfire spreading situation and vehicle dynamics, the influence of different cooperation strategies of UAVs to the overall mission performance is studied. The multi-UAV cooperation problem is formulated in a distributed network. A consensus-based method is proposed to help address the problem. The optimal cooperation strategy of UAVs is obtained through mathematical analysis. The derived optimal cooperation strategy is then verified in an independent fire simulation environment to verify its effectiveness.

Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints*

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

2012-01-01

We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000. PMID:23293404

On Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Estimation, Sensitivity Study, and Improvement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ding, Fei; Mather, Barry

This paper first studies the estimated distributed PV hosting capacities of seventeen utility distribution feeders using the Monte Carlo simulation based stochastic analysis, and then analyzes the sensitivity of PV hosting capacity to both feeder and photovoltaic system characteristics. Furthermore, an active distribution network management approach is proposed to maximize PV hosting capacity by optimally switching capacitors, adjusting voltage regulator taps, managing controllable branch switches and controlling smart PV inverters. The approach is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem and a genetic algorithm is developed to obtain the solution. Multiple simulation cases are studied and the effectiveness of themore » proposed approach on increasing PV hosting capacity is demonstrated.« less

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Optimal cross-sectional sampling for river modelling with bridges: An information theory-based method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ridolfi, E.; Napolitano, F., E-mail: francesco.napolitano@uniroma1.it; Alfonso, L.

2016-06-08

The description of river topography has a crucial role in accurate one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic modelling. Specifically, cross-sectional data define the riverbed elevation, the flood-prone area, and thus, the hydraulic behavior of the river. Here, the problem of the optimal cross-sectional spacing is solved through an information theory-based concept. The optimal subset of locations is the one with the maximum information content and the minimum amount of redundancy. The original contribution is the introduction of a methodology to sample river cross sections in the presence of bridges. The approach is tested on the Grosseto River (IT) and is compared to existingmore » guidelines. The results show that the information theory-based approach can support traditional methods to estimate rivers’ cross-sectional spacing.« less

The depth estimation of 3D face from single 2D picture based on manifold learning constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xia; Yang, Yang; Xiong, Hailiang; Liu, Yunxia

2018-04-01

The estimation of depth is virtual important in 3D face reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a t-SNE based on manifold learning constraints and introduce K-means method to divide the original database into several subset, and the selected optimal subset to reconstruct the 3D face depth information can greatly reduce the computational complexity. Firstly, we carry out the t-SNE operation to reduce the key feature points in each 3D face model from 1×249 to 1×2. Secondly, the K-means method is applied to divide the training 3D database into several subset. Thirdly, the Euclidean distance between the 83 feature points of the image to be estimated and the feature point information before the dimension reduction of each cluster center is calculated. The category of the image to be estimated is judged according to the minimum Euclidean distance. Finally, the method Kong D will be applied only in the optimal subset to estimate the depth value information of 83 feature points of 2D face images. Achieving the final depth estimation results, thus the computational complexity is greatly reduced. Compared with the traditional traversal search estimation method, although the proposed method error rate is reduced by 0.49, the number of searches decreases with the change of the category. In order to validate our approach, we use a public database to mimic the task of estimating the depth of face images from 2D images. The average number of searches decreased by 83.19%.

Tire-road friction estimation and traction control strategy for motorized electric vehicle.

PubMed

Jin, Li-Qiang; Ling, Mingze; Yue, Weiqiang

2017-01-01

In this paper, an optimal longitudinal slip ratio system for real-time identification of electric vehicle (EV) with motored wheels is proposed based on the adhesion between tire and road surface. First and foremost, the optimal longitudinal slip rate torque control can be identified in real time by calculating the derivative and slip rate of the adhesion coefficient. Secondly, the vehicle speed estimation method is also brought. Thirdly, an ideal vehicle simulation model is proposed to verify the algorithm with simulation, and we find that the slip ratio corresponds to the detection of the adhesion limit in real time. Finally, the proposed strategy is applied to traction control system (TCS). The results showed that the method can effectively identify the state of wheel and calculate the optimal slip ratio without wheel speed sensor; in the meantime, it can improve the accelerated stability of electric vehicle with traction control system (TCS).

Design optimization for a wearable, gamma-ray and neutron sensitive, detector array with directionality estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen; Britt, Carl G.; August, Andrew J.; Qi, Hairong; Seifert, Carolyn E.; Hayward, Jason P.

2017-10-01

In this study, we report on a constrained optimization and tradeoff study of a hybrid, wearable detector array having directional sensing based upon gamma-ray occlusion. One resulting design uses CLYC detectors while the second feasibility design involves the coupling of gamma-ray-sensitive CsI scintillators and a rubber LiCaAlF6 (LiCAF) neutron detector. The detector systems' responses were investigated through simulation as a function of angle in a two-dimensional plane. The expected total counts, peak-to-total ratio, directionality performance, and detection of 40 K for accurate gain stabilization were considered in the optimization. Source directionality estimation was investigated using Bayesian algorithms. Gamma-ray energies of 122 keV, 662 keV, and 1332 keV were considered. The equivalent neutron capture response compared with 3 He was also investigated for both designs.

Estimating the concentration of gold nanoparticles incorporated on natural rubber membranes using multi-level starlet optimal segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Siqueira, A. F.; Cabrera, F. C.; Pagamisse, A.; Job, A. E.

2014-12-01

This study consolidates multi-level starlet segmentation (MLSS) and multi-level starlet optimal segmentation (MLSOS) techniques for photomicrograph segmentation, based on starlet wavelet detail levels to separate areas of interest in an input image. Several segmentation levels can be obtained using MLSS; after that, Matthews correlation coefficient is used to choose an optimal segmentation level, giving rise to MLSOS. In this paper, MLSOS is employed to estimate the concentration of gold nanoparticles with diameter around 47 nm, reduced on natural rubber membranes. These samples were used for the construction of SERS/SERRS substrates and in the study of the influence of natural rubber membranes with incorporated gold nanoparticles on the physiology of Leishmania braziliensis. Precision, recall, and accuracy are used to evaluate the segmentation performance, and MLSOS presents an accuracy greater than 88 % for this application.

Tire-road friction estimation and traction control strategy for motorized electric vehicle

PubMed Central

Jin, Li-Qiang; Yue, Weiqiang

2017-01-01

In this paper, an optimal longitudinal slip ratio system for real-time identification of electric vehicle (EV) with motored wheels is proposed based on the adhesion between tire and road surface. First and foremost, the optimal longitudinal slip rate torque control can be identified in real time by calculating the derivative and slip rate of the adhesion coefficient. Secondly, the vehicle speed estimation method is also brought. Thirdly, an ideal vehicle simulation model is proposed to verify the algorithm with simulation, and we find that the slip ratio corresponds to the detection of the adhesion limit in real time. Finally, the proposed strategy is applied to traction control system (TCS). The results showed that the method can effectively identify the state of wheel and calculate the optimal slip ratio without wheel speed sensor; in the meantime, it can improve the accelerated stability of electric vehicle with traction control system (TCS). PMID:28662053

Three-dimensional electrical impedance tomography: a topology optimization approach.

PubMed

Mello, Luís Augusto Motta; de Lima, Cícero Ribeiro; Amato, Marcelo Britto Passos; Lima, Raul Gonzalez; Silva, Emílio Carlos Nelli

2008-02-01

Electrical impedance tomography is a technique to estimate the impedance distribution within a domain, based on measurements on its boundary. In other words, given the mathematical model of the domain, its geometry and boundary conditions, a nonlinear inverse problem of estimating the electric impedance distribution can be solved. Several impedance estimation algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem. In this paper, we present a three-dimensional algorithm, based on the topology optimization method, as an alternative. A sequence of linear programming problems, allowing for constraints, is solved utilizing this method. In each iteration, the finite element method provides the electric potential field within the model of the domain. An electrode model is also proposed (thus, increasing the accuracy of the finite element results). The algorithm is tested using numerically simulated data and also experimental data, and absolute resistivity values are obtained. These results, corresponding to phantoms with two different conductive materials, exhibit relatively well-defined boundaries between them, and show that this is a practical and potentially useful technique to be applied to monitor lung aeration, including the possibility of imaging a pneumothorax.

Evaluation of three inverse problem models to quantify skin microcirculation using diffusion-weighted MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordier, G.; Choi, J.; Raguin, L. G.

2008-11-01

Skin microcirculation plays an important role in diseases such as chronic venous insufficiency and diabetes. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can provide quantitative information with a better penetration depth than other noninvasive methods, such as laser Doppler flowmetry or optical coherence tomography. Moreover, successful MRI skin studies have recently been reported. In this article, we investigate three potential inverse models to quantify skin microcirculation using diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI), also known as q-space MRI. The model parameters are estimated based on nonlinear least-squares (NLS). For each of the three models, an optimal DWI sampling scheme is proposed based on D-optimality in order to minimize the size of the confidence region of the NLS estimates and thus the effect of the experimental noise inherent to DWI. The resulting covariance matrices of the NLS estimates are predicted by asymptotic normality and compared to the ones computed by Monte-Carlo simulations. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models and corresponding DWI sampling schemes as compared to conventional approaches.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Zeng, Lingzao; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Dingjiang; Wu, Laosheng

2015-01-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameters identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from concentration measurements in identifying unknown parameters. In this approach, the sampling locations that give the maximum expected relative entropy are selected as the optimal design. After the sampling locations are determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport equation. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. It is shown that the methods can be used to assist in both single sampling location and monitoring network design for contaminant source identifications in groundwater.

Estimation of Gravity Parameters Related to Simple Geometrical Structures by Developing an Approach Based on Deconvolution and Linear Optimization Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfahani, J.; Tlas, M.

2015-10-01

An easy and practical method for interpreting residual gravity anomalies due to simple geometrically shaped models such as cylinders and spheres has been proposed in this paper. This proposed method is based on both the deconvolution technique and the simplex algorithm for linear optimization to most effectively estimate the model parameters, e.g., the depth from the surface to the center of a buried structure (sphere or horizontal cylinder) or the depth from the surface to the top of a buried object (vertical cylinder), and the amplitude coefficient from the residual gravity anomaly profile. The method was tested on synthetic data sets corrupted by different white Gaussian random noise levels to demonstrate the capability and reliability of the method. The results acquired show that the estimated parameter values derived by this proposed method are close to the assumed true parameter values. The validity of this method is also demonstrated using real field residual gravity anomalies from Cuba and Sweden. Comparable and acceptable agreement is shown between the results derived by this method and those derived from real field data.

Robust linear discriminant analysis with distance based estimators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yai-Fung; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Ali, Hazlina

2017-11-01

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is one of the supervised classification techniques concerning relationship between a categorical variable and a set of continuous variables. The main objective of LDA is to create a function to distinguish between populations and allocating future observations to previously defined populations. Under the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity, the LDA yields optimal linear discriminant rule (LDR) between two or more groups. However, the optimality of LDA highly relies on the sample mean and pooled sample covariance matrix which are known to be sensitive to outliers. To alleviate these conflicts, a new robust LDA using distance based estimators known as minimum variance vector (MVV) has been proposed in this study. The MVV estimators were used to substitute the classical sample mean and classical sample covariance to form a robust linear discriminant rule (RLDR). Simulation and real data study were conducted to examine on the performance of the proposed RLDR measured in terms of misclassification error rates. The computational result showed that the proposed RLDR is better than the classical LDR and was comparable with the existing robust LDR.

Weighting by Inverse Variance or by Sample Size in Random-Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marin-Martinez, Fulgencio; Sanchez-Meca, Julio

2010-01-01

Most of the statistical procedures in meta-analysis are based on the estimation of average effect sizes from a set of primary studies. The optimal weight for averaging a set of independent effect sizes is the inverse variance of each effect size, but in practice these weights have to be estimated, being affected by sampling error. When assuming a…

Three-Dimensional Reconstruction from Single Image Base on Combination of CNN and Multi-Spectral Photometric Stereo.

PubMed

Lu, Liang; Qi, Lin; Luo, Yisong; Jiao, Hengchao; Dong, Junyu

2018-03-02

Multi-spectral photometric stereo can recover pixel-wise surface normal from a single RGB image. The difficulty lies in that the intensity in each channel is the tangle of illumination, albedo and camera response; thus, an initial estimate of the normal is required in optimization-based solutions. In this paper, we propose to make a rough depth estimation using the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) instead of using depth sensors or binocular stereo devices. Since high-resolution ground-truth data is expensive to obtain, we designed a network and trained it with rendered images of synthetic 3D objects. We use the model to predict initial normal of real-world objects and iteratively optimize the fine-scale geometry in the multi-spectral photometric stereo framework. The experimental results illustrate the improvement of the proposed method compared with existing methods.

Three-Dimensional Reconstruction from Single Image Base on Combination of CNN and Multi-Spectral Photometric Stereo

PubMed Central

Lu, Liang; Qi, Lin; Luo, Yisong; Jiao, Hengchao; Dong, Junyu

2018-01-01

Multi-spectral photometric stereo can recover pixel-wise surface normal from a single RGB image. The difficulty lies in that the intensity in each channel is the tangle of illumination, albedo and camera response; thus, an initial estimate of the normal is required in optimization-based solutions. In this paper, we propose to make a rough depth estimation using the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) instead of using depth sensors or binocular stereo devices. Since high-resolution ground-truth data is expensive to obtain, we designed a network and trained it with rendered images of synthetic 3D objects. We use the model to predict initial normal of real-world objects and iteratively optimize the fine-scale geometry in the multi-spectral photometric stereo framework. The experimental results illustrate the improvement of the proposed method compared with existing methods. PMID:29498703

Combining optimization methods with response spectra curve-fitting toward improved damping ratio estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewick, Patrick T.; Smyth, Andrew W.

2016-12-01

The authors have previously shown that many traditional approaches to operational modal analysis (OMA) struggle to properly identify the modal damping ratios for bridges under traffic loading due to the interference caused by the driving frequencies of the traffic loads. This paper presents a novel methodology for modal parameter estimation in OMA that overcomes the problems presented by driving frequencies and significantly improves the damping estimates. This methodology is based on finding the power spectral density (PSD) of a given modal coordinate, and then dividing the modal PSD into separate regions, left- and right-side spectra. The modal coordinates were found using a blind source separation (BSS) algorithm and a curve-fitting technique was developed that uses optimization to find the modal parameters that best fit each side spectra of the PSD. Specifically, a pattern-search optimization method was combined with a clustering analysis algorithm and together they were employed in a series of stages in order to improve the estimates of the modal damping ratios. This method was used to estimate the damping ratios from a simulated bridge model subjected to moving traffic loads. The results of this method were compared to other established OMA methods, such as Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and BSS methods, and they were found to be more accurate and more reliable, even for modes that had their PSDs distorted or altered by driving frequencies.

Estimation of beech pyrolysis kinetic parameters by Shuffled Complex Evolution.

PubMed

Ding, Yanming; Wang, Changjian; Chaos, Marcos; Chen, Ruiyu; Lu, Shouxiang

2016-01-01

The pyrolysis kinetics of a typical biomass energy feedstock, beech, was investigated based on thermogravimetric analysis over a wide heating rate range from 5K/min to 80K/min. A three-component (corresponding to hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin) parallel decomposition reaction scheme was applied to describe the experimental data. The resulting kinetic reaction model was coupled to an evolutionary optimization algorithm (Shuffled Complex Evolution, SCE) to obtain model parameters. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in which SCE has been used in the context of thermogravimetry. The kinetic parameters were simultaneously optimized against data for 10, 20 and 60K/min heating rates, providing excellent fits to experimental data. Furthermore, it was shown that the optimized parameters were applicable to heating rates (5 and 80K/min) beyond those used to generate them. Finally, the predicted results based on optimized parameters were contrasted with those based on the literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind Plant Power Optimization through Yaw Control using a Parametric Model for Wake Effects -- A CFD Simulation Study

DOE PAGES

Gebraad, P. M. O.; Teeuwisse, F. W.; van Wingerden, J. W.; ...

2016-01-01

This article presents a wind plant control strategy that optimizes the yaw settings of wind turbines for improved energy production of the whole wind plant by taking into account wake effects. The optimization controller is based on a novel internal parametric model for wake effects, called the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady-state (FLORIS) model. The FLORIS model predicts the steady-state wake locations and the effective flow velocities at each turbine, and the resulting turbine electrical energy production levels, as a function of the axial induction and the yaw angle of the different rotors. The FLORIS model has a limitedmore » number of parameters that are estimated based on turbine electrical power production data. In high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations of a small wind plant, we demonstrate that the optimization control based on the FLORIS model increases the energy production of the wind plant, with a reduction of loads on the turbines as an additional effect.« less

Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yijun

The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

Optimization of multi-environment trials for genomic selection based on crop models.

PubMed

Rincent, R; Kuhn, E; Monod, H; Oury, F-X; Rousset, M; Allard, V; Le Gouis, J

2017-08-01

We propose a statistical criterion to optimize multi-environment trials to predict genotype × environment interactions more efficiently, by combining crop growth models and genomic selection models. Genotype × environment interactions (GEI) are common in plant multi-environment trials (METs). In this context, models developed for genomic selection (GS) that refers to the use of genome-wide information for predicting breeding values of selection candidates need to be adapted. One promising way to increase prediction accuracy in various environments is to combine ecophysiological and genetic modelling thanks to crop growth models (CGM) incorporating genetic parameters. The efficiency of this approach relies on the quality of the parameter estimates, which depends on the environments composing this MET used for calibration. The objective of this study was to determine a method to optimize the set of environments composing the MET for estimating genetic parameters in this context. A criterion called OptiMET was defined to this aim, and was evaluated on simulated and real data, with the example of wheat phenology. The MET defined with OptiMET allowed estimating the genetic parameters with lower error, leading to higher QTL detection power and higher prediction accuracies. MET defined with OptiMET was on average more efficient than random MET composed of twice as many environments, in terms of quality of the parameter estimates. OptiMET is thus a valuable tool to determine optimal experimental conditions to best exploit MET and the phenotyping tools that are currently developed.

Optimizing placements of ground-based snow sensors for areal snow cover estimation using a machine-learning algorithm and melt-season snow-LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oroza, C.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.; Bales, R. C.; Conklin, M. H.

2016-12-01

We present a structured, analytical approach to optimize ground-sensor placements based on time-series remotely sensed (LiDAR) data and machine-learning algorithms. We focused on catchments within the Merced and Tuolumne river basins, covered by the JPL Airborne Snow Observatory LiDAR program. First, we used a Gaussian mixture model to identify representative sensor locations in the space of independent variables for each catchment. Multiple independent variables that govern the distribution of snow depth were used, including elevation, slope, and aspect. Second, we used a Gaussian process to estimate the areal distribution of snow depth from the initial set of measurements. This is a covariance-based model that also estimates the areal distribution of model uncertainty based on the independent variable weights and autocorrelation. The uncertainty raster was used to strategically add sensors to minimize model uncertainty. We assessed the temporal accuracy of the method using LiDAR-derived snow-depth rasters collected in water-year 2014. In each area, optimal sensor placements were determined using the first available snow raster for the year. The accuracy in the remaining LiDAR surveys was compared to 100 configurations of sensors selected at random. We found the accuracy of the model from the proposed placements to be higher and more consistent in each remaining survey than the average random configuration. We found that a relatively small number of sensors can be used to accurately reproduce the spatial patterns of snow depth across the basins, when placed using spatial snow data. Our approach also simplifies sensor placement. At present, field surveys are required to identify representative locations for such networks, a process that is labor intensive and provides limited guarantees on the networks' representation of catchment independent variables.

Motion prediction of a non-cooperative space target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Bang-Zhao; Cai, Guo-Ping; Liu, Yun-Meng; Liu, Pan

2018-01-01

Capturing a non-cooperative space target is a tremendously challenging research topic. Effective acquisition of motion information of the space target is the premise to realize target capture. In this paper, motion prediction of a free-floating non-cooperative target in space is studied and a motion prediction algorithm is proposed. In order to predict the motion of the free-floating non-cooperative target, dynamic parameters of the target must be firstly identified (estimated), such as inertia, angular momentum and kinetic energy and so on; then the predicted motion of the target can be acquired by substituting these identified parameters into the Euler's equations of the target. Accurate prediction needs precise identification. This paper presents an effective method to identify these dynamic parameters of a free-floating non-cooperative target. This method is based on two steps, (1) the rough estimation of the parameters is computed using the motion observation data to the target, and (2) the best estimation of the parameters is found by an optimization method. In the optimization problem, the objective function is based on the difference between the observed and the predicted motion, and the interior-point method (IPM) is chosen as the optimization algorithm, which starts at the rough estimate obtained in the first step and finds a global minimum to the objective function with the guidance of objective function's gradient. So the speed of IPM searching for the global minimum is fast, and an accurate identification can be obtained in time. The numerical results show that the proposed motion prediction algorithm is able to predict the motion of the target.

Abdominal fat volume estimation by stereology on CT: a comparison with manual planimetry.

PubMed

Manios, G E; Mazonakis, M; Voulgaris, C; Karantanas, A; Damilakis, J

2016-03-01

To deploy and evaluate a stereological point-counting technique on abdominal CT for the estimation of visceral (VAF) and subcutaneous abdominal fat (SAF) volumes. Stereological volume estimations based on point counting and systematic sampling were performed on images from 14 consecutive patients who had undergone abdominal CT. For the optimization of the method, five sampling intensities in combination with 100 and 200 points were tested. The optimum stereological measurements were compared with VAF and SAF volumes derived by the standard technique of manual planimetry on the same scans. Optimization analysis showed that the selection of 200 points along with the sampling intensity 1/8 provided efficient volume estimations in less than 4 min for VAF and SAF together. The optimized stereology showed strong correlation with planimetry (VAF: r = 0.98; SAF: r = 0.98). No statistical differences were found between the two methods (VAF: P = 0.81; SAF: P = 0.83). The 95% limits of agreement were also acceptable (VAF: -16.5%, 16.1%; SAF: -10.8%, 10.7%) and the repeatability of stereology was good (VAF: CV = 4.5%, SAF: CV = 3.2%). Stereology may be successfully applied to CT images for the efficient estimation of abdominal fat volume and may constitute a good alternative to the conventional planimetric technique. Abdominal obesity is associated with increased risk of disease and mortality. Stereology may quantify visceral and subcutaneous abdominal fat accurately and consistently. The application of stereology to estimating abdominal volume fat reduces processing time. Stereology is an efficient alternative method for estimating abdominal fat volume.

Application of Adaptive DP-optimality to Design a Pilot Study for a Clotting Time Test for Enoxaparin.

PubMed

Gulati, Abhishek; Faed, James M; Isbister, Geoffrey K; Duffull, Stephen B

2015-10-01

Dosing of enoxaparin, like other anticoagulants, may result in bleeding following excessive doses and clot formation if the dose is too low. We recently showed that a factor Xa based clotting time test could potentially assess the effect of enoxaparin on the clotting system. However, the test did not perform well in subsequent individuals and effectiveness of an exogenous phospholipid, Actin FS, in reducing the variability in the clotting time was assessed. The aim of this work was to conduct an adaptive pilot study to determine the range of concentrations of Xa and Actin FS to take forward into a proof-of-concept study. A nonlinear parametric function was developed to describe the response surface over the factors of interest. An adaptive method was used to estimate the parameters using a D-optimal design criterion. In order to provide a reasonable probability of observing a success of the clotting time test, a P-optimal design criterion was incorporated using a loss function to describe the hybrid DP-optimality. The use of adaptive DP-optimality method resulted in an efficient estimation of model parameters using data from only 6 healthy volunteers. The use of response surface modelling identified a range of sets of Xa and Actin FS concentrations, any of which could be used for the proof-of-concept study. This study shows that parsimonious adaptive DP-optimal designs may provide both precise parameter estimates for response surface modelling as well as clinical confidence in the potential benefits of the study.

Optimal Design for the Precise Estimation of an Interaction Threshold: The Impact of Exposure to a Mixture of 18 Polyhalogenated Aromatic Hydrocarbons

PubMed Central

Yeatts, Sharon D.; Gennings, Chris; Crofton, Kevin M.

2014-01-01

Traditional additivity models provide little flexibility in modeling the dose–response relationships of the single agents in a mixture. While the flexible single chemical required (FSCR) methods allow greater flexibility, its implicit nature is an obstacle in the formation of the parameter covariance matrix, which forms the basis for many statistical optimality design criteria. The goal of this effort is to develop a method for constructing the parameter covariance matrix for the FSCR models, so that (local) alphabetic optimality criteria can be applied. Data from Crofton et al. are provided as motivation; in an experiment designed to determine the effect of 18 polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons on serum total thyroxine (T4), the interaction among the chemicals was statistically significant. Gennings et al. fit the FSCR interaction threshold model to the data. The resulting estimate of the interaction threshold was positive and within the observed dose region, providing evidence of a dose-dependent interaction. However, the corresponding likelihood-ratio-based confidence interval was wide and included zero. In order to more precisely estimate the location of the interaction threshold, supplemental data are required. Using the available data as the first stage, the Ds-optimal second-stage design criterion was applied to minimize the variance of the hypothesized interaction threshold. Practical concerns associated with the resulting design are discussed and addressed using the penalized optimality criterion. Results demonstrate that the penalized Ds-optimal second-stage design can be used to more precisely define the interaction threshold while maintaining the characteristics deemed important in practice. PMID:22640366

Dynamic statistical optimization of GNSS radio occultation bending angles: advanced algorithm and performance analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kirchengast, G.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Norman, R.; Yuan, Y. B.; Fritzer, J.; Schwaerz, M.; Zhang, K.

2015-08-01

We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) measurements. The new algorithm estimates background and observation error covariance matrices with geographically varying uncertainty profiles and realistic global-mean correlation matrices. The error covariance matrices estimated by the new approach are more accurate and realistic than in simplified existing approaches and can therefore be used in statistical optimization to provide optimal bending angle profiles for high-altitude initialization of the subsequent Abel transform retrieval of refractivity. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.6 (OPSv5.6) algorithm, using simulated data on two test days from January and July 2008 and real observed CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) measurements from the complete months of January and July 2008. The following is achieved for the new method's performance compared to OPSv5.6: (1) significant reduction of random errors (standard deviations) of optimized bending angles down to about half of their size or more; (2) reduction of the systematic differences in optimized bending angles for simulated MetOp data; (3) improved retrieval of refractivity and temperature profiles; and (4) realistically estimated global-mean correlation matrices and realistic uncertainty fields for the background and observations. Overall the results indicate high suitability for employing the new dynamic approach in the processing of long-term RO data into a reference climate record, leading to well-characterized and high-quality atmospheric profiles over the entire stratosphere.

Infrared Retrievals of Ice Cloud Properties and Uncertainties with an Optimal Estimation Retrieval Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Platnick, S. E.; Meyer, K.; Zhang, Z.

2014-12-01

We developed an optimal estimation (OE)-based method using infrared (IR) observations to retrieve ice cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud effective radius (CER), and cloud top height (CTH) simultaneously. The OE-based retrieval is coupled with a fast IR radiative transfer model (RTM) that simulates observations of different sensors, and corresponding Jacobians in cloudy atmospheres. Ice cloud optical properties are calculated using the MODIS Collection 6 (C6) ice crystal habit (severely roughened hexagonal column aggregates). The OE-based method can be applied to various IR space-borne and airborne sensors, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the enhanced MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS), by optimally selecting IR bands with high information content. Four major error sources (i.e., the measurement error, fast RTM error, model input error, and pre-assumed ice crystal habit error) are taken into account in our OE retrieval method. We show that measurement error and fast RTM error have little impact on cloud retrievals, whereas errors from the model input and pre-assumed ice crystal habit significantly increase retrieval uncertainties when the cloud is optically thin. Comparisons between the OE-retrieved ice cloud properties and other operational cloud products (e.g., the MODIS C6 and CALIOP cloud products) are shown.

Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

PubMed

Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

2008-12-01

Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error

PubMed Central

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2014-01-01

In this paper, we study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from limitations in resolving the smaller scale processes. In particular, the analysis assumes the availability of continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables. Mathematically, this paper presents new results on higher order asymptotic expansion of the first two moments of a conditional measure. In particular, we are interested in the application of filtering multiscale problems in which the conditional distribution is defined over the slow variables, given noisy observation of the slow variables alone. From the mathematical analysis, we learn that for a continuous time linear model with Gaussian noise, there exists a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables which gives the optimal filtering when only the slow variables are observed. Moreover, these parameters simultaneously give the optimal equilibrium statistical estimates of the underlying system, and as a consequence they can be estimated offline from the equilibrium statistics of the true signal. By examining a nonlinear test model, we show that the linear theory extends in this non-Gaussian, nonlinear configuration as long as we know the optimal stochastic parametrization and the correct observation model. However, when the stochastic parametrization model is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa; this finding is based on analytical and numerical results on our nonlinear test model and the two-layer Lorenz-96 model. Finally, even when the correct stochastic ansatz is given, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that the parameters estimated online, as part of a filtering procedure, simultaneously produce accurate filtering and equilibrium statistical prediction. In contrast, an offline estimation technique based on a linear regression, which fits the parameters to a training dataset without using the filter, yields filter estimates which are worse than the observations or even divergent when the slow variables are not fully observed. This finding does not imply that all offline methods are inherently inferior to the online method for nonlinear estimation problems, it only suggests that an ideal estimation technique should estimate all parameters simultaneously whether it is online or offline. PMID:25002829

Accuracy and optimal timing of activity measurements in estimating the absorbed dose of radioiodine in the treatment of Graves' disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrill, S.; Horowitz, J.; Traino, A. C.; Chipkin, S. R.; Hollot, C. V.; Chait, Y.

2011-02-01

Calculation of the therapeutic activity of radioiodine 131I for individualized dosimetry in the treatment of Graves' disease requires an accurate estimate of the thyroid absorbed radiation dose based on a tracer activity administration of 131I. Common approaches (Marinelli-Quimby formula, MIRD algorithm) use, respectively, the effective half-life of radioiodine in the thyroid and the time-integrated activity. Many physicians perform one, two, or at most three tracer dose activity measurements at various times and calculate the required therapeutic activity by ad hoc methods. In this paper, we study the accuracy of estimates of four 'target variables': time-integrated activity coefficient, time of maximum activity, maximum activity, and effective half-life in the gland. Clinical data from 41 patients who underwent 131I therapy for Graves' disease at the University Hospital in Pisa, Italy, are used for analysis. The radioiodine kinetics are described using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The distributions of the target variables in the patient population are characterized. Using minimum root mean squared error as the criterion, optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules are determined for estimation of the target variables, and probabilistic bounds are given for the errors under the optimal times. An algorithm is developed for computing the optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules for the target variables. This algorithm is implemented in a freely available software tool. Taking into consideration 131I effective half-life in the thyroid and measurement noise, the optimal 1-point time for time-integrated activity coefficient is a measurement 1 week following the tracer dose. Additional measurements give only a slight improvement in accuracy.

SU-E-T-503: IMRT Optimization Using Monte Carlo Dose Engine: The Effect of Statistical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Tian, Z; Jia, X; Graves, Y; Uribe-Sanchez, A; Jiang, S

2012-06-01

With the development of ultra-fast GPU-based Monte Carlo (MC) dose engine, it becomes clinically realistic to compute the dose-deposition coefficients (DDC) for IMRT optimization using MC simulation. However, it is still time-consuming if we want to compute DDC with small statistical uncertainty. This work studies the effects of the statistical error in DDC matrix on IMRT optimization. The MC-computed DDC matrices are simulated here by adding statistical uncertainties at a desired level to the ones generated with a finite-size pencil beam algorithm. A statistical uncertainty model for MC dose calculation is employed. We adopt a penalty-based quadratic optimization model and gradient descent method to optimize fluence map and then recalculate the corresponding actual dose distribution using the noise-free DDC matrix. The impacts of DDC noise are assessed in terms of the deviation of the resulted dose distributions. We have also used a stochastic perturbation theory to theoretically estimate the statistical errors of dose distributions on a simplified optimization model. A head-and-neck case is used to investigate the perturbation to IMRT plan due to MC's statistical uncertainty. The relative errors of the final dose distributions of the optimized IMRT are found to be much smaller than those in the DDC matrix, which is consistent with our theoretical estimation. When history number is decreased from 108 to 106, the dose-volume-histograms are still very similar to the error-free DVHs while the error in DDC is about 3.8%. The results illustrate that the statistical errors in the DDC matrix have a relatively small effect on IMRT optimization in dose domain. This indicates we can use relatively small number of histories to obtain the DDC matrix with MC simulation within a reasonable amount of time, without considerably compromising the accuracy of the optimized treatment plan. This work is supported by Varian Medical Systems through a Master Research Agreement. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Nonlinear Curve-Fitting Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everhart, Joel L.; Badavi, Forooz F.

1989-01-01

Nonlinear optimization algorithm helps in finding best-fit curve. Nonlinear Curve Fitting Program, NLINEAR, interactive curve-fitting routine based on description of quadratic expansion of X(sup 2) statistic. Utilizes nonlinear optimization algorithm calculating best statistically weighted values of parameters of fitting function and X(sup 2) minimized. Provides user with such statistical information as goodness of fit and estimated values of parameters producing highest degree of correlation between experimental data and mathematical model. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Identifying Optimal Measurement Subspace for the Ensemble Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ning; Huang, Zhenyu; Welch, Greg

2012-05-24

To reduce the computational load of the ensemble Kalman filter while maintaining its efficacy, an optimization algorithm based on the generalized eigenvalue decomposition method is proposed for identifying the most informative measurement subspace. When the number of measurements is large, the proposed algorithm can be used to make an effective tradeoff between computational complexity and estimation accuracy. This algorithm also can be extended to other Kalman filters for measurement subspace selection.

Corner smoothing of 2D milling toolpath using b-spline curve by optimizing the contour error and the feedrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özcan, Abdullah; Rivière-Lorphèvre, Edouard; Ducobu, François

2018-05-01

In part manufacturing, efficient process should minimize the cycle time needed to reach the prescribed quality on the part. In order to optimize it, the machining time needs to be as low as possible and the quality needs to meet some requirements. For a 2D milling toolpath defined by sharp corners, the programmed feedrate is different from the reachable feedrate due to kinematic limits of the motor drives. This phenomena leads to a loss of productivity. Smoothing the toolpath allows to reduce significantly the machining time but the dimensional accuracy should not be neglected. Therefore, a way to address the problem of optimizing a toolpath in part manufacturing is to take into account the manufacturing time and the part quality. On one hand, maximizing the feedrate will minimize the manufacturing time and, on the other hand, the maximum of the contour error needs to be set under a threshold to meet the quality requirements. This paper presents a method to optimize sharp corner smoothing using b-spline curves by adjusting the control points defining the curve. The objective function used in the optimization process is based on the contour error and the difference between the programmed feedrate and an estimation of the reachable feedrate. The estimation of the reachable feedrate is based on geometrical information. Some simulation results are presented in the paper and the machining times are compared in each cases.

An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

PubMed

Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

2016-01-02

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

Modeling error PDF optimization based wavelet neural network modeling of dynamic system and its application in blast furnace ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Wang, Chenyu; Li, Mingjie

In general, the modeling errors of dynamic system model are a set of random variables. The traditional performance index of modeling such as means square error (MSE) and root means square error (RMSE) can not fully express the connotation of modeling errors with stochastic characteristics both in the dimension of time domain and space domain. Therefore, the probability density function (PDF) is introduced to completely describe the modeling errors in both time scales and space scales. Based on it, a novel wavelet neural network (WNN) modeling method is proposed by minimizing the two-dimensional (2D) PDF shaping of modeling errors. First,more » the modeling error PDF by the tradional WNN is estimated using data-driven kernel density estimation (KDE) technique. Then, the quadratic sum of 2D deviation between the modeling error PDF and the target PDF is utilized as performance index to optimize the WNN model parameters by gradient descent method. Since the WNN has strong nonlinear approximation and adaptive capability, and all the parameters are well optimized by the proposed method, the developed WNN model can make the modeling error PDF track the target PDF, eventually. Simulation example and application in a blast furnace ironmaking process show that the proposed method has a higher modeling precision and better generalization ability compared with the conventional WNN modeling based on MSE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed method has more desirable estimation for modeling error PDF that approximates to a Gaussian distribution whose shape is high and narrow.« less

Modeling error PDF optimization based wavelet neural network modeling of dynamic system and its application in blast furnace ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Wang, Chenyu; Li, Mingjie

In general, the modeling errors of dynamic system model are a set of random variables. The traditional performance index of modeling such as means square error (MSE) and root means square error (RMSE) cannot fully express the connotation of modeling errors with stochastic characteristics both in the dimension of time domain and space domain. Therefore, the probability density function (PDF) is introduced to completely describe the modeling errors in both time scales and space scales. Based on it, a novel wavelet neural network (WNN) modeling method is proposed by minimizing the two-dimensional (2D) PDF shaping of modeling errors. First, themore » modeling error PDF by the traditional WNN is estimated using data-driven kernel density estimation (KDE) technique. Then, the quadratic sum of 2D deviation between the modeling error PDF and the target PDF is utilized as performance index to optimize the WNN model parameters by gradient descent method. Since the WNN has strong nonlinear approximation and adaptive capability, and all the parameters are well optimized by the proposed method, the developed WNN model can make the modeling error PDF track the target PDF, eventually. Simulation example and application in a blast furnace ironmaking process show that the proposed method has a higher modeling precision and better generalization ability compared with the conventional WNN modeling based on MSE criteria. However, the proposed method has more desirable estimation for modeling error PDF that approximates to a Gaussian distribution whose shape is high and narrow.« less

Modeling error PDF optimization based wavelet neural network modeling of dynamic system and its application in blast furnace ironmaking

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Ping; Wang, Chenyu; Li, Mingjie; ...

2018-01-31

In general, the modeling errors of dynamic system model are a set of random variables. The traditional performance index of modeling such as means square error (MSE) and root means square error (RMSE) cannot fully express the connotation of modeling errors with stochastic characteristics both in the dimension of time domain and space domain. Therefore, the probability density function (PDF) is introduced to completely describe the modeling errors in both time scales and space scales. Based on it, a novel wavelet neural network (WNN) modeling method is proposed by minimizing the two-dimensional (2D) PDF shaping of modeling errors. First, themore » modeling error PDF by the traditional WNN is estimated using data-driven kernel density estimation (KDE) technique. Then, the quadratic sum of 2D deviation between the modeling error PDF and the target PDF is utilized as performance index to optimize the WNN model parameters by gradient descent method. Since the WNN has strong nonlinear approximation and adaptive capability, and all the parameters are well optimized by the proposed method, the developed WNN model can make the modeling error PDF track the target PDF, eventually. Simulation example and application in a blast furnace ironmaking process show that the proposed method has a higher modeling precision and better generalization ability compared with the conventional WNN modeling based on MSE criteria. However, the proposed method has more desirable estimation for modeling error PDF that approximates to a Gaussian distribution whose shape is high and narrow.« less

Simultaneous prediction of muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait.

PubMed

Lin, Yi-Chung; Walter, Jonathan P; Banks, Scott A; Pandy, Marcus G; Fregly, Benjamin J

2010-03-22

Musculoskeletal models are currently the primary means for estimating in vivo muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait. These models typically couple a dynamic skeletal model with individual muscle models but rarely include articular contact models due to their high computational cost. This study evaluates a novel method for predicting muscle and contact forces simultaneously in the knee during gait. The method utilizes a 12 degree-of-freedom knee model (femur, tibia, and patella) combining muscle, articular contact, and dynamic skeletal models. Eight static optimization problems were formulated using two cost functions (one based on muscle activations and one based on contact forces) and four constraints sets (each composed of different combinations of inverse dynamic loads). The estimated muscle and contact forces were evaluated using in vivo tibial contact force data collected from a patient with a force-measuring knee implant. When the eight optimization problems were solved with added constraints to match the in vivo contact force measurements, root-mean-square errors in predicted contact forces were less than 10 N. Furthermore, muscle and patellar contact forces predicted by the two cost functions became more similar as more inverse dynamic loads were used as constraints. When the contact force constraints were removed, estimated medial contact forces were similar and lateral contact forces lower in magnitude compared to measured contact forces, with estimated muscle forces being sensitive and estimated patellar contact forces relatively insensitive to the choice of cost function and constraint set. These results suggest that optimization problem formulation coupled with knee model complexity can significantly affect predicted muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait. Further research using a complete lower limb model is needed to assess the importance of this finding to the muscle and contact force estimation process. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subgrid-scale scalar flux modelling based on optimal estimation theory and machine-learning procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollant, A.; Balarac, G.; Corre, C.

2017-09-01

New procedures are explored for the development of models in the context of large eddy simulation (LES) of a passive scalar. They rely on the combination of the optimal estimator theory with machine-learning algorithms. The concept of optimal estimator allows to identify the most accurate set of parameters to be used when deriving a model. The model itself can then be defined by training an artificial neural network (ANN) on a database derived from the filtering of direct numerical simulation (DNS) results. This procedure leads to a subgrid scale model displaying good structural performance, which allows to perform LESs very close to the filtered DNS results. However, this first procedure does not control the functional performance so that the model can fail when the flow configuration differs from the training database. Another procedure is then proposed, where the model functional form is imposed and the ANN used only to define the model coefficients. The training step is a bi-objective optimisation in order to control both structural and functional performances. The model derived from this second procedure proves to be more robust. It also provides stable LESs for a turbulent plane jet flow configuration very far from the training database but over-estimates the mixing process in that case.

An adaptive finite element method for the inequality-constrained Reynolds equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, Tom; Rajagopal, Kumbakonam R.; Stenberg, Rolf; Videman, Juha

2018-07-01

We present a stabilized finite element method for the numerical solution of cavitation in lubrication, modeled as an inequality-constrained Reynolds equation. The cavitation model is written as a variable coefficient saddle-point problem and approximated by a residual-based stabilized method. Based on our recent results on the classical obstacle problem, we present optimal a priori estimates and derive novel a posteriori error estimators. The method is implemented as a Nitsche-type finite element technique and shown in numerical computations to be superior to the usually applied penalty methods.

Modified optimal control pilot model for computer-aided design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, John B.; Schmidt, David K.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the theoretical development of a modified optimal control pilot model based upon the optimal control model (OCM) of the human operator developed by Kleinman, Baron, and Levison. This model is input compatible with the OCM and retains other key aspects of the OCM, such as a linear quadratic solution for the pilot gains with inclusion of control rate in the cost function, a Kalman estimator, and the ability to account for attention allocation and perception threshold effects. An algorithm designed for each implementation in current dynamic systems analysis and design software is presented. Example results based upon the analysis of a tracking task using three basic dynamic systems are compared with measured results and with similar analyses performed with the OCM and two previously proposed simplified optimal pilot models. The pilot frequency responses and error statistics obtained with this modified optimal control model are shown to compare more favorably to the measured experimental results than the other previously proposed simplified models evaluated.

Reentry trajectory optimization based on a multistage pseudospectral method.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiang; Zhou, Rui; Jin, Xuelian

2014-01-01

Of the many direct numerical methods, the pseudospectral method serves as an effective tool to solve the reentry trajectory optimization for hypersonic vehicles. However, the traditional pseudospectral method is time-consuming due to large number of discretization points. For the purpose of autonomous and adaptive reentry guidance, the research herein presents a multistage trajectory control strategy based on the pseudospectral method, capable of dealing with the unexpected situations in reentry flight. The strategy typically includes two subproblems: the trajectory estimation and trajectory refining. In each processing stage, the proposed method generates a specified range of trajectory with the transition of the flight state. The full glide trajectory consists of several optimal trajectory sequences. The newly focused geographic constraints in actual flight are discussed thereafter. Numerical examples of free-space flight, target transition flight, and threat avoidance flight are used to show the feasible application of multistage pseudospectral method in reentry trajectory optimization.

Reentry Trajectory Optimization Based on a Multistage Pseudospectral Method

PubMed Central

Zhou, Rui; Jin, Xuelian

2014-01-01

Of the many direct numerical methods, the pseudospectral method serves as an effective tool to solve the reentry trajectory optimization for hypersonic vehicles. However, the traditional pseudospectral method is time-consuming due to large number of discretization points. For the purpose of autonomous and adaptive reentry guidance, the research herein presents a multistage trajectory control strategy based on the pseudospectral method, capable of dealing with the unexpected situations in reentry flight. The strategy typically includes two subproblems: the trajectory estimation and trajectory refining. In each processing stage, the proposed method generates a specified range of trajectory with the transition of the flight state. The full glide trajectory consists of several optimal trajectory sequences. The newly focused geographic constraints in actual flight are discussed thereafter. Numerical examples of free-space flight, target transition flight, and threat avoidance flight are used to show the feasible application of multistage pseudospectral method in reentry trajectory optimization. PMID:24574929

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distortion outage minimization in Nakagami fading using limited feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chih-Hong; Dey, Subhrakanti

2011-12-01

We focus on a decentralized estimation problem via a clustered wireless sensor network measuring a random Gaussian source where the clusterheads amplify and forward their received signals (from the intra-cluster sensors) over orthogonal independent stationary Nakagami fading channels to a remote fusion center that reconstructs an estimate of the original source. The objective of this paper is to design clusterhead transmit power allocation policies to minimize the distortion outage probability at the fusion center, subject to an expected sum transmit power constraint. In the case when full channel state information (CSI) is available at the clusterhead transmitters, the optimization problem can be shown to be convex and is solved exactly. When only rate-limited channel feedback is available, we design a number of computationally efficient sub-optimal power allocation algorithms to solve the associated non-convex optimization problem. We also derive an approximation for the diversity order of the distortion outage probability in the limit when the average transmission power goes to infinity. Numerical results illustrate that the sub-optimal power allocation algorithms perform very well and can close the outage probability gap between the constant power allocation (no CSI) and full CSI-based optimal power allocation with only 3-4 bits of channel feedback.

Estimating 3D positions and velocities of projectiles from monocular views.

PubMed

Ribnick, Evan; Atev, Stefan; Papanikolopoulos, Nikolaos P

2009-05-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of localizing a projectile in 3D based on its apparent motion in a stationary monocular view. A thorough theoretical analysis is developed, from which we establish the minimum conditions for the existence of a unique solution. The theoretical results obtained have important implications for applications involving projectile motion. A robust, nonlinear optimization-based formulation is proposed, and the use of a local optimization method is justified by detailed examination of the local convexity structure of the cost function. The potential of this approach is validated by experimental results.

3-D direct current resistivity anisotropic modelling by goal-oriented adaptive finite element methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Zhengyong; Qiu, Lewen; Tang, Jingtian; Wu, Xiaoping; Xiao, Xiao; Zhou, Zilong

2018-01-01

Although accurate numerical solvers for 3-D direct current (DC) isotropic resistivity models are current available even for complicated models with topography, reliable numerical solvers for the anisotropic case are still an open question. This study aims to develop a novel and optimal numerical solver for accurately calculating the DC potentials for complicated models with arbitrary anisotropic conductivity structures in the Earth. First, a secondary potential boundary value problem is derived by considering the topography and the anisotropic conductivity. Then, two a posteriori error estimators with one using the gradient-recovery technique and one measuring the discontinuity of the normal component of current density are developed for the anisotropic cases. Combing the goal-oriented and non-goal-oriented mesh refinements and these two error estimators, four different solving strategies are developed for complicated DC anisotropic forward modelling problems. A synthetic anisotropic two-layer model with analytic solutions verified the accuracy of our algorithms. A half-space model with a buried anisotropic cube and a mountain-valley model are adopted to test the convergence rates of these four solving strategies. We found that the error estimator based on the discontinuity of current density shows better performance than the gradient-recovery based a posteriori error estimator for anisotropic models with conductivity contrasts. Both error estimators working together with goal-oriented concepts can offer optimal mesh density distributions and highly accurate solutions.

Last-position elimination-based learning automata.

PubMed

Zhang, Junqi; Wang, Cheng; Zhou, MengChu

2014-12-01

An update scheme of the state probability vector of actions is critical for learning automata (LA). The most popular is the pursuit scheme that pursues the estimated optimal action and penalizes others. This paper proposes a reverse philosophy that leads to last-position elimination-based learning automata (LELA). The action graded last in terms of the estimated performance is penalized by decreasing its state probability and is eliminated when its state probability becomes zero. All active actions, that is, actions with nonzero state probability, equally share the penalized state probability from the last-position action at each iteration. The proposed LELA is characterized by the relaxed convergence condition for the optimal action, the accelerated step size of the state probability update scheme for the estimated optimal action, and the enriched sampling for the estimated nonoptimal actions. The proof of the ϵ-optimal property for the proposed algorithm is presented. Last-position elimination is a widespread philosophy in the real world and has proved to be also helpful for the update scheme of the learning automaton via the simulations of well-known benchmark environments. In the simulations, two versions of the LELA, using different selection strategies of the last action, are compared with the classical pursuit algorithms Discretized Pursuit Reward-Inaction (DP(RI)) and Discretized Generalized Pursuit Algorithm (DGPA). Simulation results show that the proposed schemes achieve significantly faster convergence and higher accuracy than the classical ones. Specifically, the proposed schemes reduce the interval to find the best parameter for a specific environment in the classical pursuit algorithms. Thus, they can have their parameter tuning easier to perform and can save much more time when applied to a practical case. Furthermore, the convergence curves and the corresponding variance coefficient curves of the contenders are illustrated to characterize their essential differences and verify the analysis results of the proposed algorithms.

Locating helicopter emergency medical service bases to optimise population coverage versus average response time.

PubMed

Garner, Alan A; van den Berg, Pieter L

2017-10-16

New South Wales (NSW), Australia has a network of multirole retrieval physician staffed helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) with seven bases servicing a jurisdiction with population concentrated along the eastern seaboard. The aim of this study was to estimate optimal HEMS base locations within NSW using advanced mathematical modelling techniques. We used high resolution census population data for NSW from 2011 which divides the state into areas containing 200-800 people. Optimal HEMS base locations were estimated using the maximal covering location problem facility location optimization model and the average response time model, exploring the number of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for a 45 min response time threshold or minimizing the overall average response time to all persons, both in green field scenarios and conditioning on the current base structure. We also developed a hybrid mathematical model where average response time was optimised based on minimum population coverage thresholds. Seven bases could cover 98% of the population within 45mins when optimised for coverage or reach the entire population of the state within an average of 21mins if optimised for response time. Given the existing bases, adding two bases could either increase the 45 min coverage from 91% to 97% or decrease the average response time from 21mins to 19mins. Adding a single specialist prehospital rapid response HEMS to the area of greatest population concentration decreased the average state wide response time by 4mins. The optimum seven base hybrid model that was able to cover 97.75% of the population within 45mins, and all of the population in an average response time of 18 mins included the rapid response HEMS model. HEMS base locations can be optimised based on either percentage of the population covered, or average response time to the entire population. We have also demonstrated a hybrid technique that optimizes response time for a given number of bases and minimum defined threshold of population coverage. Addition of specialized rapid response HEMS services to a system of multirole retrieval HEMS may reduce overall average response times by improving access in large urban areas.

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2011-01-01

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation applications such as model-based diagnostic, controls, and life usage calculations. The advantage of the innovation is the significant reduction in estimation errors that it can provide relative to the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the model tuning parameter vector. Because this technique needs only to be performed during the system design process, it places no additional computation burden on the onboard Kalman filter implementation. The technique has been developed for aircraft engine onboard estimation applications, as this application typically presents an under-determined estimation problem. However, this generic technique could be applied to other industries using gas turbine engine technology.

Continuous-variable quantum probes for structured environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bina, Matteo; Grasselli, Federico; Paris, Matteo G. A.

2018-01-01

We address parameter estimation for structured environments and suggest an effective estimation scheme based on continuous-variables quantum probes. In particular, we investigate the use of a single bosonic mode as a probe for Ohmic reservoirs, and obtain the ultimate quantum limits to the precise estimation of their cutoff frequency. We assume the probe prepared in a Gaussian state and determine the optimal working regime, i.e., the conditions for the maximization of the quantum Fisher information in terms of the initial preparation, the reservoir temperature, and the interaction time. Upon investigating the Fisher information of feasible measurements, we arrive at a remarkable simple result: homodyne detection of canonical variables allows one to achieve the ultimate quantum limit to precision under suitable, mild, conditions. Finally, upon exploiting a perturbative approach, we find the invariant sweet spots of the (tunable) characteristic frequency of the probe, able to drive the probe towards the optimal working regime.

Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

2014-12-01

The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

An Optimal-Estimation-Based Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm Using OMI Near-UV Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeong, U; Kim, J.; Ahn, C.; Torres, O.; Liu, X.; Bhartia, P. K.; Spurr, R. J. D.; Haffner, D.; Chance, K.; Holben, B. N.

2016-01-01

An optimal-estimation(OE)-based aerosol retrieval algorithm using the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) near-ultraviolet observation was developed in this study. The OE-based algorithm has the merit of providing useful estimates of errors simultaneously with the inversion products. Furthermore, instead of using the traditional lookup tables for inversion, it performs online radiative transfer calculations with the VLIDORT (linearized pseudo-spherical vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer code) to eliminate interpolation errors and improve stability. The measurements and inversion products of the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Network campaign in northeast Asia (DRAGON NE-Asia 2012) were used to validate the retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and single scattering albedo (SSA). The retrieved AOT and SSA at 388 nm have a correlation with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) products that is comparable to or better than the correlation with the operational product during the campaign. The OEbased estimated error represented the variance of actual biases of AOT at 388 nm between the retrieval and AERONET measurements better than the operational error estimates. The forward model parameter errors were analyzed separately for both AOT and SSA retrievals. The surface reflectance at 388 nm, the imaginary part of the refractive index at 354 nm, and the number fine-mode fraction (FMF) were found to be the most important parameters affecting the retrieval accuracy of AOT, while FMF was the most important parameter for the SSA retrieval. The additional information provided with the retrievals, including the estimated error and degrees of freedom, is expected to be valuable for relevant studies. Detailed advantages of using the OE method were described and discussed in this paper.

Optimizing fish sampling for fish - mercury bioaccumulation factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scudder Eikenberry, Barbara C.; Riva-Murray, Karen; Knightes, Christopher D.; Journey, Celeste A.; Chasar, Lia C.; Brigham, Mark E.; Bradley, Paul M.

2015-01-01

Fish Bioaccumulation Factors (BAFs; ratios of mercury (Hg) in fish (Hgfish) and water (Hgwater)) are used to develop Total Maximum Daily Load and water quality criteria for Hg-impaired waters. Both applications require representative Hgfish estimates and, thus, are sensitive to sampling and data-treatment methods. Data collected by fixed protocol from 11 streams in 5 states distributed across the US were used to assess the effects of Hgfish normalization/standardization methods and fish sample numbers on BAF estimates. Fish length, followed by weight, was most correlated to adult top-predator Hgfish. Site-specific BAFs based on length-normalized and standardized Hgfish estimates demonstrated up to 50% less variability than those based on non-normalized Hgfish. Permutation analysis indicated that length-normalized and standardized Hgfish estimates based on at least 8 trout or 5 bass resulted in mean Hgfish coefficients of variation less than 20%. These results are intended to support regulatory mercury monitoring and load-reduction program improvements.

Kalman Filters for Time Delay of Arrival-Based Source Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klee, Ulrich; Gehrig, Tobias; McDonough, John

2006-12-01

In this work, we propose an algorithm for acoustic source localization based on time delay of arrival (TDOA) estimation. In earlier work by other authors, an initial closed-form approximation was first used to estimate the true position of the speaker followed by a Kalman filtering stage to smooth the time series of estimates. In the proposed algorithm, this closed-form approximation is eliminated by employing a Kalman filter to directly update the speaker's position estimate based on the observed TDOAs. In particular, the TDOAs comprise the observation associated with an extended Kalman filter whose state corresponds to the speaker's position. We tested our algorithm on a data set consisting of seminars held by actual speakers. Our experiments revealed that the proposed algorithm provides source localization accuracy superior to the standard spherical and linear intersection techniques. Moreover, the proposed algorithm, although relying on an iterative optimization scheme, proved efficient enough for real-time operation.

Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

PubMed

Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

2013-03-01

Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of model uncertainty on some optimal routing problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohanty, Bibhu; Cassandras, Christos G.

1991-01-01

The effect of model uncertainties on optimal routing in a system of parallel queues is examined. The uncertainty arises in modeling the service time distribution for the customers (jobs, packets) to be served. For a Poisson arrival process and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the variance of this distribution. However, as the input traffic load approaches the system capacity the optimal routing assignment and corresponding mean system delay are shown to converge to a variance-invariant point. The implications of these results are examined in the context of gradient-based routing algorithms. An example of a model-independent algorithm using online gradient estimation is also included.

Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

PubMed

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2018-01-30

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On-Board Event-Based State Estimation for Trajectory Approaching and Tracking of a Vehicle

PubMed Central

Martínez-Rey, Miguel; Espinosa, Felipe; Gardel, Alfredo; Santos, Carlos

2015-01-01

For the problem of pose estimation of an autonomous vehicle using networked external sensors, the processing capacity and battery consumption of these sensors, as well as the communication channel load should be optimized. Here, we report an event-based state estimator (EBSE) consisting of an unscented Kalman filter that uses a triggering mechanism based on the estimation error covariance matrix to request measurements from the external sensors. This EBSE generates the events of the estimator module on-board the vehicle and, thus, allows the sensors to remain in stand-by mode until an event is generated. The proposed algorithm requests a measurement every time the estimation distance root mean squared error (DRMS) value, obtained from the estimator's covariance matrix, exceeds a threshold value. This triggering threshold can be adapted to the vehicle's working conditions rendering the estimator even more efficient. An example of the use of the proposed EBSE is given, where the autonomous vehicle must approach and follow a reference trajectory. By making the threshold a function of the distance to the reference location, the estimator can halve the use of the sensors with a negligible deterioration in the performance of the approaching maneuver. PMID:26102489

Conditioning of Model Identification Task in Immune Inspired Optimizer SILO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wojdan, K.; Swirski, K.; Warchol, M.; Maciorowski, M.

2009-10-01

Methods which provide good conditioning of model identification task in immune inspired, steady-state controller SILO (Stochastic Immune Layer Optimizer) are presented in this paper. These methods are implemented in a model based optimization algorithm. The first method uses a safe model to assure that gains of the process's model can be estimated. The second method is responsible for elimination of potential linear dependences between columns of observation matrix. Moreover new results from one of SILO implementation in polish power plant are presented. They confirm high efficiency of the presented solution in solving technical problems.

Neural networks for structural design - An integrated system implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berke, Laszlo; Hafez, Wassim; Pao, Yoh-Han

1992-01-01

The development of powerful automated procedures to aid the creative designer is becoming increasingly critical for complex design tasks. In the work described here Artificial Neural Nets are applied to acquire structural analysis and optimization domain expertise. Based on initial instructions from the user an automated procedure generates random instances of structural analysis and/or optimization 'experiences' that cover a desired domain. It extracts training patterns from the created instances, constructs and trains an appropriate network architecture and checks the accuracy of net predictions. The final product is a trained neural net that can estimate analysis and/or optimization results instantaneously.

Optimal heavy tail estimation - Part 1: Order selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel A.

2017-12-01

The tail probability, P, of the distribution of a variable is important for risk analysis of extremes. Many variables in complex geophysical systems show heavy tails, where P decreases with the value, x, of a variable as a power law with a characteristic exponent, α. Accurate estimation of α on the basis of data is currently hindered by the problem of the selection of the order, that is, the number of largest x values to utilize for the estimation. This paper presents a new, widely applicable, data-adaptive order selector, which is based on computer simulations and brute force search. It is the first in a set of papers on optimal heavy tail estimation. The new selector outperforms competitors in a Monte Carlo experiment, where simulated data are generated from stable distributions and AR(1) serial dependence. We calculate error bars for the estimated α by means of simulations. We illustrate the method on an artificial time series. We apply it to an observed, hydrological time series from the River Elbe and find an estimated characteristic exponent of 1.48 ± 0.13. This result indicates finite mean but infinite variance of the statistical distribution of river runoff.

Mixed oxidizer hybrid propulsion system optimization under uncertainty using applied response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, James Joshua

The analysis documented herein provides an integrated approach for the conduct of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques coupled with response surface-based methods for characterization of mixture-dependent variables. This novel methodology provides an innovative means of conducting optimization studies under uncertainty in propulsion system design. Analytic inputs are based upon empirical regression rate information obtained from design of experiments (DOE) mixture studies utilizing a mixed oxidizer hybrid rocket concept. Hybrid fuel regression rate was selected as the target response variable for optimization under uncertainty, with maximization of regression rate chosen as the driving objective. Characteristic operational conditions and propellant mixture compositions from experimental efforts conducted during previous foundational work were combined with elemental uncertainty estimates as input variables. Response surfaces for mixture-dependent variables and their associated uncertainty levels were developed using quadratic response equations incorporating single and two-factor interactions. These analysis inputs, response surface equations and associated uncertainty contributions were applied to a probabilistic MCS to develop dispersed regression rates as a function of operational and mixture input conditions within design space. Illustrative case scenarios were developed and assessed using this analytic approach including fully and partially constrained operational condition sets over all of design mixture space. In addition, optimization sets were performed across an operationally representative region in operational space and across all investigated mixture combinations. These scenarios were selected as representative examples relevant to propulsion system optimization, particularly for hybrid and solid rocket platforms. Ternary diagrams, including contour and surface plots, were developed and utilized to aid in visualization. The concept of Expanded-Durov diagrams was also adopted and adapted to this study to aid in visualization of uncertainty bounds. Regions of maximum regression rate and associated uncertainties were determined for each set of case scenarios. Application of response surface methodology coupled with probabilistic-based MCS allowed for flexible and comprehensive interrogation of mixture and operating design space during optimization cases. Analyses were also conducted to assess sensitivity of uncertainty to variations in key elemental uncertainty estimates. The methodology developed during this research provides an innovative optimization tool for future propulsion design efforts.

Frequency domain surface EMG sensor fusion for estimating finger forces.

PubMed

Potluri, Chandrasekhar; Kumar, Parmod; Anugolu, Madhavi; Urfer, Alex; Chiu, Steve; Naidu, D; Schoen, Marco P

2010-01-01

Extracting or estimating skeletal hand/finger forces using surface electro myographic (sEMG) signals poses many challenges due to cross-talk, noise, and a temporal and spatially modulated signal characteristics. Normal sEMG measurements are based on single sensor data. In this paper, array sensors are used along with a proposed sensor fusion scheme that result in a simple Multi-Input-Single-Output (MISO) transfer function. Experimental data is used along with system identification to find this MISO system. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach is employed to optimize the characteristics of the MISO system. The proposed fusion-based approach is tested experimentally and indicates improvement in finger/hand force estimation.

Comparison Between the Use of SAR and Optical Data for Wheat Yield Estimations Using Crop Model Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestro, Paolo Cosmo; Yang, Hao; Jin, X. L.; Yang, Guijun; Casa, Raffaele; Pignatti, Stefano

2016-08-01

The ultimate aim of this work is to develop methods for the assimilation of the biophysical variables estimated by remote sensing in a suitable crop growth model. Two strategies were followed, one based on the use of Leaf Area Index (LAI) estimated by optical data, and the other based on the use of biomass estimated by SAR. The first one estimates LAI from the reflectance measured by the optical sensors on board of HJ1A, HJ1B and Landsat, using a method based on the training of artificial neural networks (ANN) with PROSAIL model simulations. The retrieved LAI is used to improve wheat yield estimation, using assimilation methods based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter, which assimilate the biophysical variables into growth crop model. The second strategy estimates biomass from SAR imagery. Polarimetric decomposition methods were used based on multi-temporal fully polarimetric Radarsat-2 data during the entire growing season. The estimated biomass was assimilating to FAO Aqua crop model for improving the winter wheat yield estimation, with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. These procedures were used in a spatial application with data collected in the rural area of Yangling (Shaanxi Province) in 2014 and were validated for a number of wheat fields for which ground yield data had been recorded and according to statistical yield data for the area.

Simulated maximum likelihood method for estimating kinetic rates in gene expression.

PubMed

Tian, Tianhai; Xu, Songlin; Gao, Junbin; Burrage, Kevin

2007-01-01

Kinetic rate in gene expression is a key measurement of the stability of gene products and gives important information for the reconstruction of genetic regulatory networks. Recent developments in experimental technologies have made it possible to measure the numbers of transcripts and protein molecules in single cells. Although estimation methods based on deterministic models have been proposed aimed at evaluating kinetic rates from experimental observations, these methods cannot tackle noise in gene expression that may arise from discrete processes of gene expression, small numbers of mRNA transcript, fluctuations in the activity of transcriptional factors and variability in the experimental environment. In this paper, we develop effective methods for estimating kinetic rates in genetic regulatory networks. The simulated maximum likelihood method is used to evaluate parameters in stochastic models described by either stochastic differential equations or discrete biochemical reactions. Different types of non-parametric density functions are used to measure the transitional probability of experimental observations. For stochastic models described by biochemical reactions, we propose to use the simulated frequency distribution to evaluate the transitional density based on the discrete nature of stochastic simulations. The genetic optimization algorithm is used as an efficient tool to search for optimal reaction rates. Numerical results indicate that the proposed methods can give robust estimations of kinetic rates with good accuracy.

Computational design of a Diels-Alderase from a thermophilic esterase: the importance of dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, Mats; Johansson, Adam Johannes; Olsson, Tjelvar S. G.; Liebeschuetz, John; Brinck, Tore

2012-09-01

A novel computational Diels-Alderase design, based on a relatively rare form of carboxylesterase from Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is presented and theoretically evaluated. The structure was found by mining the PDB for a suitable oxyanion hole-containing structure, followed by a combinatorial approach to find suitable substrates and rational mutations. Four lead designs were selected and thoroughly modeled to obtain realistic estimates of substrate binding and prearrangement. Molecular dynamics simulations and DFT calculations were used to optimize and estimate binding affinity and activation energies. A large quantum chemical model was used to capture the salient interactions in the crucial transition state (TS). Our quantitative estimation of kinetic parameters was validated against four experimentally characterized Diels-Alderases with good results. The final designs in this work are predicted to have rate enhancements of ≈103-106 and high predicted proficiencies. This work emphasizes the importance of considering protein dynamics in the design approach, and provides a quantitative estimate of the how the TS stabilization observed in most de novo and redesigned enzymes is decreased compared to a minimal, `ideal' model. The presented design is highly interesting for further optimization and applications since it is based on a thermophilic enzyme ( T opt = 70 °C).

Influence of the optimization methods on neural state estimation quality of the drive system with elasticity.

PubMed

Orlowska-Kowalska, Teresa; Kaminski, Marcin

2014-01-01

The paper deals with the implementation of optimized neural networks (NNs) for state variable estimation of the drive system with an elastic joint. The signals estimated by NNs are used in the control structure with a state-space controller and additional feedbacks from the shaft torque and the load speed. High estimation quality is very important for the correct operation of a closed-loop system. The precision of state variables estimation depends on the generalization properties of NNs. A short review of optimization methods of the NN is presented. Two techniques typical for regularization and pruning methods are described and tested in detail: the Bayesian regularization and the Optimal Brain Damage methods. Simulation results show good precision of both optimized neural estimators for a wide range of changes of the load speed and the load torque, not only for nominal but also changed parameters of the drive system. The simulation results are verified in a laboratory setup.

A maximum power point prediction method for group control of photovoltaic water pumping systems based on parameter identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Su, J. H.; Guo, L.; Chen, J.

2017-06-01

This paper puts forward a maximum power estimation method based on the photovoltaic array (PVA) model to solve the optimization problems about group control of the PV water pumping systems (PVWPS) at the maximum power point (MPP). This method uses the improved genetic algorithm (GA) for model parameters estimation and identification in view of multi P-V characteristic curves of a PVA model, and then corrects the identification results through least square method. On this basis, the irradiation level and operating temperature under any condition are able to estimate so an accurate PVA model is established and the MPP none-disturbance estimation is achieved. The simulation adopts the proposed GA to determine parameters, and the results verify the accuracy and practicability of the methods.

On the optimization of electromagnetic geophysical data: Application of the PSO algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godio, A.; Santilano, A.

2018-01-01

Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm resolves constrained multi-parameter problems and is suitable for simultaneous optimization of linear and nonlinear problems, with the assumption that forward modeling is based on good understanding of ill-posed problem for geophysical inversion. We apply PSO for solving the geophysical inverse problem to infer an Earth model, i.e. the electrical resistivity at depth, consistent with the observed geophysical data. The method doesn't require an initial model and can be easily constrained, according to external information for each single sounding. The optimization process to estimate the model parameters from the electromagnetic soundings focuses on the discussion of the objective function to be minimized. We discuss the possibility to introduce in the objective function vertical and lateral constraints, with an Occam-like regularization. A sensitivity analysis allowed us to check the performance of the algorithm. The reliability of the approach is tested on synthetic, real Audio-Magnetotelluric (AMT) and Long Period MT data. The method appears able to solve complex problems and allows us to estimate the a posteriori distribution of the model parameters.

Optimal two-stage dynamic treatment regimes from a classification perspective with censored survival data.

PubMed

Hager, Rebecca; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie

2018-05-18

Clinicians often make multiple treatment decisions at key points over the course of a patient's disease. A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, each mapping a patient's observed history to the set of available, feasible treatment options at each decision point, and thus formalizes this process. An optimal regime is one leading to the most beneficial outcome on average if used to select treatment for the patient population. We propose a method for estimation of an optimal regime involving two decision points when the outcome of interest is a censored survival time, which is based on maximizing a locally efficient, doubly robust, augmented inverse probability weighted estimator for average outcome over a class of regimes. By casting this optimization as a classification problem, we exploit well-studied classification techniques such as support vector machines to characterize the class of regimes and facilitate implementation via a backward iterative algorithm. Simulation studies of performance and application of the method to data from a sequential, multiple assignment randomized clinical trial in acute leukemia are presented. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Microseismic event location using global optimization algorithms: An integrated and automated workflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, Soledad R.; Velis, Danilo R.

2018-02-01

We perform the location of microseismic events generated in hydraulic fracturing monitoring scenarios using two global optimization techniques: Very Fast Simulated Annealing (VFSA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and compare them against the classical grid search (GS). To this end, we present an integrated and optimized workflow that concatenates into an automated bash script the different steps that lead to the microseismic events location from raw 3C data. First, we carry out the automatic detection, denoising and identification of the P- and S-waves. Secondly, we estimate their corresponding backazimuths using polarization information, and propose a simple energy-based criterion to automatically decide which is the most reliable estimate. Finally, after taking proper care of the size of the search space using the backazimuth information, we perform the location using the aforementioned algorithms for 2D and 3D usual scenarios of hydraulic fracturing processes. We assess the impact of restricting the search space and show the advantages of using either VFSA or PSO over GS to attain significant speed-ups.

Optimal stimulus scheduling for active estimation of evoked brain networks.

PubMed

Kafashan, MohammadMehdi; Ching, ShiNung

2015-12-01

We consider the problem of optimal probing to learn connections in an evoked dynamic network. Such a network, in which each edge measures an input-output relationship between sites in sensor/actuator-space, is relevant to emerging applications in neural mapping and neural connectivity estimation. We show that the problem of scheduling nodes to a probe (i.e., stimulate) amounts to a problem of optimal sensor scheduling. By formulating the evoked network in state-space, we show that the solution to the greedy probing strategy has a convenient form and, under certain conditions, is optimal over a finite horizon. We adopt an expectation maximization technique to update the state-space parameters in an online fashion and demonstrate the efficacy of the overall approach in a series of detailed numerical examples. The proposed method provides a principled means to actively probe time-varying connections in neuronal networks. The overall method can be implemented in real time and is particularly well-suited to applications in stimulation-based cortical mapping in which the underlying network dynamics are changing over time.

Optimal stimulus scheduling for active estimation of evoked brain networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafashan, MohammadMehdi; Ching, ShiNung

2015-12-01

Objective. We consider the problem of optimal probing to learn connections in an evoked dynamic network. Such a network, in which each edge measures an input-output relationship between sites in sensor/actuator-space, is relevant to emerging applications in neural mapping and neural connectivity estimation. Approach. We show that the problem of scheduling nodes to a probe (i.e., stimulate) amounts to a problem of optimal sensor scheduling. Main results. By formulating the evoked network in state-space, we show that the solution to the greedy probing strategy has a convenient form and, under certain conditions, is optimal over a finite horizon. We adopt an expectation maximization technique to update the state-space parameters in an online fashion and demonstrate the efficacy of the overall approach in a series of detailed numerical examples. Significance. The proposed method provides a principled means to actively probe time-varying connections in neuronal networks. The overall method can be implemented in real time and is particularly well-suited to applications in stimulation-based cortical mapping in which the underlying network dynamics are changing over time.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm. PMID:26305462

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

An Optimal Estimation Method to Obtain Surface Layer Turbulent Fluxes from Profile Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, D.

2015-12-01

In the absence of direct turbulence measurements, the turbulence characteristics of the atmospheric surface layer are often derived from measurements of the surface layer mean properties based on Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST). This approach requires two levels of the ensemble mean wind, temperature, and water vapor, from which the fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and water vapor can be obtained. When only one measurement level is available, the roughness heights and the assumed properties of the corresponding variables at the respective roughness heights are used. In practice, the temporal mean with large number of samples are used in place of the ensemble mean. However, in many situations the samples of data are taken from multiple levels. It is thus desirable to derive the boundary layer flux properties using all measurements. In this study, we used an optimal estimation approach to derive surface layer properties based on all available measurements. This approach assumes that the samples are taken from a population whose ensemble mean profile follows the MOST. An optimized estimate is obtained when the results yield a minimum cost function defined as a weighted summation of all error variance at each sample altitude. The weights are based one sample data variance and the altitude of the measurements. This method was applied to measurements in the marine atmospheric surface layer from a small boat using radiosonde on a tethered balloon where temperature and relative humidity profiles in the lowest 50 m were made repeatedly in about 30 minutes. We will present the resultant fluxes and the derived MOST mean profiles using different sets of measurements. The advantage of this method over the 'traditional' methods will be illustrated. Some limitations of this optimization method will also be discussed. Its application to quantify the effects of marine surface layer environment on radar and communication signal propagation will be shown as well.

Time Resolved Temperature Measurement of Hypervelocity Impact Generated Plasma Using a Global Optimization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hew, Y. M.; Linscott, I.; Close, S.

2015-12-01

Meteoroids and orbital debris, collectively referred to as hypervelocity impactors, travel between 7 and 72 km/s in free space. Upon their impact onto the spacecraft, the energy conversion from kinetic to ionization/vaporization occurs within a very brief timescale and results in a small and dense expanding plasma with a very strong optical flash. The radio frequency (RF) emission produced by this plasma can potentially lead to electrical anomalies within the spacecraft. In addition, space weather, such as solar activity and background plasma, can establish spacecraft conditions which can exaggerate the damages done by these impacts. During the impact, a very strong impact flash will be generated. Through the studying of this emission spectrum of the impact, we hope to study the impact generated gas cloud/plasma properties. The impact flash emitted from a ground-based hypervelocity impact test is long expected by many scientists to contain the characteristics of the impact generated plasma, such as plasma temperature and density. This paper presents a method for the time-resolved plasma temperature estimation using three-color visible band photometry data with a global pattern search optimization method. The equilibrium temperature of the plasma can be estimated using an optical model which accounts for both the line emission and continuum emission from the plasma. Using a global pattern search based optimizer, the model can isolate the contribution of the continuum emission versus the line emission from the plasma. The plasma temperature can thus be estimated. Prior to the optimization step, a Gaussian process is also applied to extract the optical emission signal out of the noisy background. The resultant temperature and line-to-continuum emission weighting factor are consistent with the spectrum of the impactor material and current literature.

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Gui-Long

2001-01-01

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Data consistency criterion for selecting parameters for k-space-based reconstruction in parallel imaging.

PubMed

Nana, Roger; Hu, Xiaoping

2010-01-01

k-space-based reconstruction in parallel imaging depends on the reconstruction kernel setting, including its support. An optimal choice of the kernel depends on the calibration data, coil geometry and signal-to-noise ratio, as well as the criterion used. In this work, data consistency, imposed by the shift invariance requirement of the kernel, is introduced as a goodness measure of k-space-based reconstruction in parallel imaging and demonstrated. Data consistency error (DCE) is calculated as the sum of squared difference between the acquired signals and their estimates obtained based on the interpolation of the estimated missing data. A resemblance between DCE and the mean square error in the reconstructed image was found, demonstrating DCE's potential as a metric for comparing or choosing reconstructions. When used for selecting the kernel support for generalized autocalibrating partially parallel acquisition (GRAPPA) reconstruction and the set of frames for calibration as well as the kernel support in temporal GRAPPA reconstruction, DCE led to improved images over existing methods. Data consistency error is efficient to evaluate, robust for selecting reconstruction parameters and suitable for characterizing and optimizing k-space-based reconstruction in parallel imaging.

Non-Darcy flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear radiation and heat generation/absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Ullah, Siraj; Khan, M. Ijaz; Alsaedi, A.; Zaigham Zia, Q. M.

2018-03-01

Here modeling and computations are presented to introduce the novel concept of Darcy-Forchheimer three-dimensional flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption. Bidirectional stretching surface induces the flow. Darcy's law is commonly replace by Forchheimer relation. Xue model is implemented for nonliquid transport mechanism. Nonlinear formulation based upon conservation laws of mass, momentum and energy is first modeled and then solved by optimal homotopy analysis technique. Optimal estimations of auxiliary variables are obtained. Importance of influential variables on the velocity and thermal fields is interpreted graphically. Moreover velocity and temperature gradients are discussed and analyzed. Physical interpretation of influential variables is examined.

Analysis of stock investment selection based on CAPM using covariance and genetic algorithm approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Susanti, D.; Najmia, M.; Lesmana, E.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

2018-03-01

Investment is one of the economic growth factors of countries, especially in Indonesia. Stocks is a form of investment, which is liquid. In determining the stock investment decisions which need to be considered by investors is to choose stocks that can generate maximum returns with a minimum risk level. Therefore, we need to know how to allocate the capital which may give the optimal benefit. This study discusses the issue of stock investment based on CAPM which is estimated using covariance and Genetic Algorithm approach. It is assumed that the stocks analyzed follow the CAPM model. To do the estimation of beta parameter on CAPM equation is done by two approach, first is to be represented by covariance approach, and second with genetic algorithm optimization. As a numerical illustration, in this paper analyzed ten stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that estimation of beta parameters using covariance and genetic algorithm approach, give the same decision, that is, six underpriced stocks with buying decision, and four overpriced stocks with a sales decision. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the results can be used as a consideration for investors buying six under-priced stocks, and selling four overpriced stocks.

Uninformative Prior Multiple Target Tracking Using Evidential Particle Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, J. L., III; Holzinger, M. J.

Space situational awareness requires the ability to initialize state estimation from short measurements and the reliable association of observations to support the characterization of the space environment. The electro-optical systems used to observe space objects cannot fully characterize the state of an object given a short, unobservable sequence of measurements. Further, it is difficult to associate these short-arc measurements if many such measurements are generated through the observation of a cluster of satellites, debris from a satellite break-up, or from spurious detections of an object. An optimization based, probabilistic short-arc observation association approach coupled with a Dempster-Shafer based evidential particle filter in a multiple target tracking framework is developed and proposed to address these problems. The optimization based approach is shown in literature to be computationally efficient and can produce probabilities of association, state estimates, and covariances while accounting for systemic errors. Rigorous application of Dempster-Shafer theory is shown to be effective at enabling ignorance to be properly accounted for in estimation by augmenting probability with belief and plausibility. The proposed multiple hypothesis framework will use a non-exclusive hypothesis formulation of Dempster-Shafer theory to assign belief mass to candidate association pairs and generate tracks based on the belief to plausibility ratio. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated using simulated observations of a GEO satellite breakup scenario.

Feature selection and classifier parameters estimation for EEG signals peak detection using particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Adam, Asrul; Shapiai, Mohd Ibrahim; Tumari, Mohd Zaidi Mohd; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Mubin, Marizan

2014-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG) signal peak detection is widely used in clinical applications. The peak point can be detected using several approaches, including time, frequency, time-frequency, and nonlinear domains depending on various peak features from several models. However, there is no study that provides the importance of every peak feature in contributing to a good and generalized model. In this study, feature selection and classifier parameters estimation based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) are proposed as a framework for peak detection on EEG signals in time domain analysis. Two versions of PSO are used in the study: (1) standard PSO and (2) random asynchronous particle swarm optimization (RA-PSO). The proposed framework tries to find the best combination of all the available features that offers good peak detection and a high classification rate from the results in the conducted experiments. The evaluation results indicate that the accuracy of the peak detection can be improved up to 99.90% and 98.59% for training and testing, respectively, as compared to the framework without feature selection adaptation. Additionally, the proposed framework based on RA-PSO offers a better and reliable classification rate as compared to standard PSO as it produces low variance model.

Optimal electrode selection for multi-channel electroencephalogram based detection of auditory steady-state responses.

PubMed

Van Dun, Bram; Wouters, Jan; Moonen, Marc

2009-07-01

Auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) are used for hearing threshold estimation at audiometric frequencies. Hearing impaired newborns, in particular, benefit from this technique as it allows for a more precise diagnosis than traditional techniques, and a hearing aid can be better fitted at an early age. However, measurement duration of current single-channel techniques is still too long for clinical widespread use. This paper evaluates the practical performance of a multi-channel electroencephalogram (EEG) processing strategy based on a detection theory approach. A minimum electrode set is determined for ASSRs with frequencies between 80 and 110 Hz using eight-channel EEG measurements of ten normal-hearing adults. This set provides a near-optimal hearing threshold estimate for all subjects and improves response detection significantly for EEG data with numerous artifacts. Multi-channel processing does not significantly improve response detection for EEG data with few artifacts. In this case, best response detection is obtained when noise-weighted averaging is applied on single-channel data. The same test setup (eight channels, ten normal-hearing subjects) is also used to determine a minimum electrode setup for 10-Hz ASSRs. This configuration allows to record near-optimal signal-to-noise ratios for 80% of subjects.

Reconstruction of the temperature field for inverse ultrasound hyperthermia calculations at a muscle/bone interface.

PubMed

Liauh, Chihng-Tsung; Shih, Tzu-Ching; Huang, Huang-Wen; Lin, Win-Li

2004-02-01

An inverse algorithm with Tikhonov regularization of order zero has been used to estimate the intensity ratios of the reflected longitudinal wave to the incident longitudinal wave and that of the refracted shear wave to the total transmitted wave into bone in calculating the absorbed power field and then to reconstruct the temperature distribution in muscle and bone regions based on a limited number of temperature measurements during simulated ultrasound hyperthermia. The effects of the number of temperature sensors are investigated, as is the amount of noise superimposed on the temperature measurements, and the effects of the optimal sensor location on the performance of the inverse algorithm. Results show that noisy input data degrades the performance of this inverse algorithm, especially when the number of temperature sensors is small. Results are also presented demonstrating an improvement in the accuracy of the temperature estimates by employing an optimal value of the regularization parameter. Based on the analysis of singular-value decomposition, the optimal sensor position in a case utilizing only one temperature sensor can be determined to make the inverse algorithm converge to the true solution.

Unified anomaly suppression and boundary extraction in laser radar range imagery based on a joint curve-evolution and expectation-maximization algorithm.

PubMed

Feng, Haihua; Karl, William Clem; Castañon, David A

2008-05-01

In this paper, we develop a new unified approach for laser radar range anomaly suppression, range profiling, and segmentation. This approach combines an object-based hybrid scene model for representing the range distribution of the field and a statistical mixture model for the range data measurement noise. The image segmentation problem is formulated as a minimization problem which jointly estimates the target boundary together with the target region range variation and background range variation directly from the noisy and anomaly-filled range data. This formulation allows direct incorporation of prior information concerning the target boundary, target ranges, and background ranges into an optimal reconstruction process. Curve evolution techniques and a generalized expectation-maximization algorithm are jointly employed as an efficient solver for minimizing the objective energy, resulting in a coupled pair of object and intensity optimization tasks. The method directly and optimally extracts the target boundary, avoiding a suboptimal two-step process involving image smoothing followed by boundary extraction. Experiments are presented demonstrating that the proposed approach is robust to anomalous pixels (missing data) and capable of producing accurate estimation of the target boundary and range values from noisy data.

Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazan, Osman

This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost function obtained from Independent Service Operators. A consumer experiment is established to replicate the peak load behavior. As a result, consumers' utility function is estimated and optimal retail electricity prices are computed.

13C metabolic flux analysis: optimal design of isotopic labeling experiments.

PubMed

Antoniewicz, Maciek R

2013-12-01

Measuring fluxes by 13C metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA) has become a key activity in chemical and pharmaceutical biotechnology. Optimal design of isotopic labeling experiments is of central importance to 13C-MFA as it determines the precision with which fluxes can be estimated. Traditional methods for selecting isotopic tracers and labeling measurements did not fully utilize the power of 13C-MFA. Recently, new approaches were developed for optimal design of isotopic labeling experiments based on parallel labeling experiments and algorithms for rational selection of tracers. In addition, advanced isotopic labeling measurements were developed based on tandem mass spectrometry. Combined, these approaches can dramatically improve the quality of 13C-MFA results with important applications in metabolic engineering and biotechnology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A New Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Marginal Likelihoods.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Bo; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Paul O

2018-06-01

Evaluating the marginal likelihood in Bayesian analysis is essential for model selection. Estimators based on a single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample from the posterior distribution include the harmonic mean estimator and the inflated density ratio estimator. We propose a new class of Monte Carlo estimators based on this single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample. This class can be thought of as a generalization of the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators using a partition weighted kernel (likelihood times prior). We show that our estimator is consistent and has better theoretical properties than the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators. In addition, we provide guidelines on choosing optimal weights. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed estimator. We further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed estimator with two real data sets: one is from a prostate cancer study using an ordinal probit regression model with latent variables; the other is for the power prior construction from two Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group phase III clinical trials using the cure rate survival model with similar objectives.

Distributed Learning and Information Dynamics In Networked Autonomous Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-20

2009 to June 30, 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DISTRIBUTED LEARNING AND INFORMATION DYNAMICS IN NETWORKED AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS AFOSR Grant #FA9550–09–1–0538 PI: Eric Feron (current) Jeff S. Shamma (former) Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332 1...Control. Design of event-based optimal remote estimation systems : We have proposed two new for- mulations to study the design of optimal remote

Towards using musculoskeletal models for intelligent control of physically assistive robots.

PubMed

Carmichael, Marc G; Liu, Dikai

2011-01-01

With the increasing number of robots being developed to physically assist humans in tasks such as rehabilitation and assistive living, more intelligent and personalized control systems are desired. In this paper we propose the use of a musculoskeletal model to estimate the strength of the user, from which information can be utilized to improve control schemes in which robots physically assist humans. An optimization model is developed utilizing a musculoskeletal model to estimate human strength in a specified dynamic state. Results of this optimization as well as methods of using it to observe muscle-based weaknesses in task space are presented. Lastly potential methods and problems in incorporating this model into a robot control system are discussed.

Approximation of Optimal Infinite Dimensional Compensators for Flexible Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, J. S.; Mingori, D. L.; Adamian, A.; Jabbari, F.

1985-01-01

The infinite dimensional compensator for a large class of flexible structures, modeled as distributed systems are discussed, as well as an approximation scheme for designing finite dimensional compensators to approximate the infinite dimensional compensator. The approximation scheme is applied to develop a compensator for a space antenna model based on wrap-rib antennas being built currently. While the present model has been simplified, it retains the salient features of rigid body modes and several distributed components of different characteristics. The control and estimator gains are represented by functional gains, which provide graphical representations of the control and estimator laws. These functional gains also indicate the convergence of the finite dimensional compensators and show which modes the optimal compensator ignores.

Long-Time Behavior and Critical Limit of Subcritical SQG Equations in Scale-Invariant Sobolev Spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coti Zelati, Michele

2018-02-01

We consider the subcritical SQG equation in its natural scale-invariant Sobolev space and prove the existence of a global attractor of optimal regularity. The proof is based on a new energy estimate in Sobolev spaces to bootstrap the regularity to the optimal level, derived by means of nonlinear lower bounds on the fractional Laplacian. This estimate appears to be new in the literature and allows a sharp use of the subcritical nature of the L^∞ bounds for this problem. As a by-product, we obtain attractors for weak solutions as well. Moreover, we study the critical limit of the attractors and prove their stability and upper semicontinuity with respect to the strength of the diffusion.

Real-Time Station Grouping under Dynamic Traffic for IEEE 802.11ah

PubMed Central

Tian, Le; Latré, Steven

2017-01-01

IEEE 802.11ah, marketed as Wi-Fi HaLow, extends Wi-Fi to the sub-1 GHz spectrum. Through a number of physical layer (PHY) and media access control (MAC) optimizations, it aims to bring greatly increased range, energy-efficiency, and scalability. This makes 802.11ah the perfect candidate for providing connectivity to Internet of Things (IoT) devices. One of these new features, referred to as the Restricted Access Window (RAW), focuses on improving scalability in highly dense deployments. RAW divides stations into groups and reduces contention and collisions by only allowing channel access to one group at a time. However, the standard does not dictate how to determine the optimal RAW grouping parameters. The optimal parameters depend on the current network conditions, and it has been shown that incorrect configuration severely impacts throughput, latency and energy efficiency. In this paper, we propose a traffic-adaptive RAW optimization algorithm (TAROA) to adapt the RAW parameters in real time based on the current traffic conditions, optimized for sensor networks in which each sensor transmits packets with a certain (predictable) frequency and may change the transmission frequency over time. The TAROA algorithm is executed at each target beacon transmission time (TBTT), and it first estimates the packet transmission interval of each station only based on packet transmission information obtained by access point (AP) during the last beacon interval. Then, TAROA determines the RAW parameters and assigns stations to RAW slots based on this estimated transmission frequency. The simulation results show that, compared to enhanced distributed channel access/distributed coordination function (EDCA/DCF), the TAROA algorithm can highly improve the performance of IEEE 802.11ah dense networks in terms of throughput, especially when hidden nodes exist, although it does not always achieve better latency performance. This paper contributes with a practical approach to optimizing RAW grouping under dynamic traffic in real time, which is a major leap towards applying RAW mechanism in real-life IoT networks. PMID:28677617

Real-Time Station Grouping under Dynamic Traffic for IEEE 802.11ah.

PubMed

Tian, Le; Khorov, Evgeny; Latré, Steven; Famaey, Jeroen

2017-07-04

IEEE 802.11ah, marketed as Wi-Fi HaLow, extends Wi-Fi to the sub-1 GHz spectrum. Through a number of physical layer (PHY) and media access control (MAC) optimizations, it aims to bring greatly increased range, energy-efficiency, and scalability. This makes 802.11ah the perfect candidate for providing connectivity to Internet of Things (IoT) devices. One of these new features, referred to as the Restricted Access Window (RAW), focuses on improving scalability in highly dense deployments. RAW divides stations into groups and reduces contention and collisions by only allowing channel access to one group at a time. However, the standard does not dictate how to determine the optimal RAW grouping parameters. The optimal parameters depend on the current network conditions, and it has been shown that incorrect configuration severely impacts throughput, latency and energy efficiency. In this paper, we propose a traffic-adaptive RAW optimization algorithm (TAROA) to adapt the RAW parameters in real time based on the current traffic conditions, optimized for sensor networks in which each sensor transmits packets with a certain (predictable) frequency and may change the transmission frequency over time. The TAROA algorithm is executed at each target beacon transmission time (TBTT), and it first estimates the packet transmission interval of each station only based on packet transmission information obtained by access point (AP) during the last beacon interval. Then, TAROA determines the RAW parameters and assigns stations to RAW slots based on this estimated transmission frequency. The simulation results show that, compared to enhanced distributed channel access/distributed coordination function (EDCA/DCF), the TAROA algorithm can highly improve the performance of IEEE 802.11ah dense networks in terms of throughput, especially when hidden nodes exist, although it does not always achieve better latency performance. This paper contributes with a practical approach to optimizing RAW grouping under dynamic traffic in real time, which is a major leap towards applying RAW mechanism in real-life IoT networks.

A Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Heuristic for Market-Oriented Task-Level Scheduling in Cloud Workflow Systems.

PubMed

Li, Xuejun; Xu, Jia; Yang, Yun

2015-01-01

Cloud workflow system is a kind of platform service based on cloud computing. It facilitates the automation of workflow applications. Between cloud workflow system and its counterparts, market-oriented business model is one of the most prominent factors. The optimization of task-level scheduling in cloud workflow system is a hot topic. As the scheduling is a NP problem, Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have been proposed to optimize the cost. However, they have the characteristic of premature convergence in optimization process and therefore cannot effectively reduce the cost. To solve these problems, Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO) algorithm with chaotic sequence and adaptive inertia weight factor is applied to present the task-level scheduling. Chaotic sequence with high randomness improves the diversity of solutions, and its regularity assures a good global convergence. Adaptive inertia weight factor depends on the estimate value of cost. It makes the scheduling avoid premature convergence by properly balancing between global and local exploration. The experimental simulation shows that the cost obtained by our scheduling is always lower than the other two representative counterparts.

Proper Orthogonal Decomposition in Optimal Control of Fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ravindran, S. S.

1999-01-01

In this article, we present a reduced order modeling approach suitable for active control of fluid dynamical systems based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The rationale behind the reduced order modeling is that numerical simulation of Navier-Stokes equations is still too costly for the purpose of optimization and control of unsteady flows. We examine the possibility of obtaining reduced order models that reduce computational complexity associated with the Navier-Stokes equations while capturing the essential dynamics by using the POD. The POD allows extraction of certain optimal set of basis functions, perhaps few, from a computational or experimental data-base through an eigenvalue analysis. The solution is then obtained as a linear combination of these optimal set of basis functions by means of Galerkin projection. This makes it attractive for optimal control and estimation of systems governed by partial differential equations. We here use it in active control of fluid flows governed by the Navier-Stokes equations. We show that the resulting reduced order model can be very efficient for the computations of optimization and control problems in unsteady flows. Finally, implementational issues and numerical experiments are presented for simulations and optimal control of fluid flow through channels.