Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

2015-01-01

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond.Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Coordinated control of active and reactive power of distribution network with distributed PV cluster via model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Yu; Sheng, Wanxing; Jin, Wei; Wu, Ming; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Feng

2018-02-01

A coordinated optimal control method of active and reactive power of distribution network with distributed PV cluster based on model predictive control is proposed in this paper. The method divides the control process into long-time scale optimal control and short-time scale optimal control with multi-step optimization. The models are transformed into a second-order cone programming problem due to the non-convex and nonlinear of the optimal models which are hard to be solved. An improved IEEE 33-bus distribution network system is used to analyse the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed control method

Optimizing finite element predictions of local subchondral bone structural stiffness using neural network-derived density-modulus relationships for proximal tibial subchondral cortical and trabecular bone.

PubMed

Nazemi, S Majid; Amini, Morteza; Kontulainen, Saija A; Milner, Jaques S; Holdsworth, David W; Masri, Bassam A; Wilson, David R; Johnston, James D

2017-01-01

Quantitative computed tomography based subject-specific finite element modeling has potential to clarify the role of subchondral bone alterations in knee osteoarthritis initiation, progression, and pain. However, it is unclear what density-modulus equation(s) should be applied with subchondral cortical and subchondral trabecular bone when constructing finite element models of the tibia. Using a novel approach applying neural networks, optimization, and back-calculation against in situ experimental testing results, the objective of this study was to identify subchondral-specific equations that optimized finite element predictions of local structural stiffness at the proximal tibial subchondral surface. Thirteen proximal tibial compartments were imaged via quantitative computed tomography. Imaged bone mineral density was converted to elastic moduli using multiple density-modulus equations (93 total variations) then mapped to corresponding finite element models. For each variation, root mean squared error was calculated between finite element prediction and in situ measured stiffness at 47 indentation sites. Resulting errors were used to train an artificial neural network, which provided an unlimited number of model variations, with corresponding error, for predicting stiffness at the subchondral bone surface. Nelder-Mead optimization was used to identify optimum density-modulus equations for predicting stiffness. Finite element modeling predicted 81% of experimental stiffness variance (with 10.5% error) using optimized equations for subchondral cortical and trabecular bone differentiated with a 0.5g/cm 3 density. In comparison with published density-modulus relationships, optimized equations offered improved predictions of local subchondral structural stiffness. Further research is needed with anisotropy inclusion, a smaller voxel size and de-blurring algorithms to improve predictions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Wavelet Neural Network Optimal Control Model for Traffic-Flow Prediction in Intelligent Transport Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Darong; Bai, Xing-Rong

Based on wavelet transform and neural network theory, a traffic-flow prediction model, which was used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system, is constructed. First of all, we have extracted the scale coefficient and wavelet coefficient from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform; Secondly, an Artificial Neural Network model of Traffic-flow Prediction was constructed and trained using the coefficient sequences as inputs and raw data as outputs; Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic-flow Forecasting model, the network topological structure and the data transmitted model; Finally, a simulated example has shown that the technique is effectively and exactly. The theoretical results indicated that the wavelet neural network prediction model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.

Researches of fruit quality prediction model based on near infrared spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yulin; Li, Lian

2018-04-01

With the improvement in standards for food quality and safety, people pay more attention to the internal quality of fruits, therefore the measurement of fruit internal quality is increasingly imperative. In general, nondestructive soluble solid content (SSC) and total acid content (TAC) analysis of fruits is vital and effective for quality measurement in global fresh produce markets, so in this paper, we aim at establishing a novel fruit internal quality prediction model based on SSC and TAC for Near Infrared Spectrum. Firstly, the model of fruit quality prediction based on PCA + BP neural network, PCA + GRNN network, PCA + BP adaboost strong classifier, PCA + ELM and PCA + LS_SVM classifier are designed and implemented respectively; then, in the NSCT domain, the median filter and the SavitzkyGolay filter are used to preprocess the spectral signal, Kennard-Stone algorithm is used to automatically select the training samples and test samples; thirdly, we achieve the optimal models by comparing 15 kinds of prediction model based on the theory of multi-classifier competition mechanism, specifically, the non-parametric estimation is introduced to measure the effectiveness of proposed model, the reliability and variance of nonparametric estimation evaluation of each prediction model to evaluate the prediction result, while the estimated value and confidence interval regard as a reference, the experimental results demonstrate that this model can better achieve the optimal evaluation of the internal quality of fruit; finally, we employ cat swarm optimization to optimize two optimal models above obtained from nonparametric estimation, empirical testing indicates that the proposed method can provide more accurate and effective results than other forecasting methods.

Strontium-90 Biokinetics from Simulated Wound Intakes in Non-human Primates Compared with Combined Model Predictions from National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Report 156 and International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 67.

PubMed

Allen, Mark B; Brey, Richard R; Gesell, Thomas; Derryberry, Dewayne; Poudel, Deepesh

2016-01-01

This study had a goal to evaluate the predictive capabilities of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) wound model coupled to the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) systemic model for 90Sr-contaminated wounds using non-human primate data. Studies were conducted on 13 macaque (Macaca mulatta) monkeys, each receiving one-time intramuscular injections of 90Sr solution. Urine and feces samples were collected up to 28 d post-injection and analyzed for 90Sr activity. Integrated Modules for Bioassay Analysis (IMBA) software was configured with default NCRP and ICRP model transfer coefficients to calculate predicted 90Sr intake via the wound based on the radioactivity measured in bioassay samples. The default parameters of the combined models produced adequate fits of the bioassay data, but maximum likelihood predictions of intake were overestimated by a factor of 1.0 to 2.9 when bioassay data were used as predictors. Skeletal retention was also over-predicted, suggesting an underestimation of the excretion fraction. Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo sampling were applied using IMBA to vary the default parameters, producing updated transfer coefficients for individual monkeys that improved model fit and predicted intake and skeletal retention. The geometric means of the optimized transfer rates for the 11 cases were computed, and these optimized sample population parameters were tested on two independent monkey cases and on the 11 monkeys from which the optimized parameters were derived. The optimized model parameters did not improve the model fit in most cases, and the predicted skeletal activity produced improvements in three of the 11 cases. The optimized parameters improved the predicted intake in all cases but still over-predicted the intake by an average of 50%. The results suggest that the modified transfer rates were not always an improvement over the default NCRP and ICRP model values.

Optimal plant nitrogen use improves model representation of vegetation response to elevated CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, Silvia; Kern, Melanie; Engel, Jan; Zaehle, Sönke

2017-04-01

Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramaticallylower than previously predicted

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mordecai, Eerin A.; Paaijmans, Krijin P.; Johnson, Leah R.; Balzer, Christian; Ben-Horin, Tal; de Moor, Emily; McNally, Amy; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; Smith, Thomas C.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2013-01-01

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Johnson, Leah R.; Balzer, Christian; Ben-Horin, Tal; de Moor, Emily; McNally, Amy; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; Smith, Thomas C.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2013-01-01

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

An optimized Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model based on particle swarm optimization and its application in prediction for the incidence of Hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2014-06-01

In this paper, by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the optimal parameter estimation problem, an improved Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model termed PSO-NNGBM(1,1) is proposed. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized model is applied for forecasting the incidence of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. Four models, traditional GM(1,1), grey Verhulst model (GVM), original nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM(1,1)) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, are also established for comparison with the proposed model under the criteria of mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percent error. The prediction results show that the optimized NNGBM(1,1) model is more accurate and performs better than the traditional GM(1,1), GVM, NGBM(1,1) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2016-02-01

Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

Feed-Forward Neural Network Soft-Sensor Modeling of Flotation Process Based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Gravitational Search Algorithm

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie-Sheng; Han, Shuang

2015-01-01

For predicting the key technology indicators (concentrate grade and tailings recovery rate) of flotation process, a feed-forward neural network (FNN) based soft-sensor model optimized by the hybrid algorithm combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed. Although GSA has better optimization capability, it has slow convergence velocity and is easy to fall into local optimum. So in this paper, the velocity vector and position vector of GSA are adjusted by PSO algorithm in order to improve its convergence speed and prediction accuracy. Finally, the proposed hybrid algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters of FNN soft-sensor model. Simulation results show that the model has better generalization and prediction accuracy for the concentrate grade and tailings recovery rate to meet the online soft-sensor requirements of the real-time control in the flotation process. PMID:26583034

Parameterization of the InVEST Crop Pollination Model to spatially predict abundance of wild blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton) native bee pollinators in Maine, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groff, Shannon C.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Drummond, Frank; Bushmann, Sara; McGill, Brian J.

2016-01-01

Non-native honeybees historically have been managed for crop pollination, however, recent population declines draw attention to pollination services provided by native bees. We applied the InVEST Crop Pollination model, developed to predict native bee abundance from habitat resources, in Maine's wild blueberry crop landscape. We evaluated model performance with parameters informed by four approaches: 1) expert opinion; 2) sensitivity analysis; 3) sensitivity analysis informed model optimization; and, 4) simulated annealing (uninformed) model optimization. Uninformed optimization improved model performance by 29% compared to expert opinion-informed model, while sensitivity-analysis informed optimization improved model performance by 54%. This suggests that expert opinion may not result in the best parameter values for the InVEST model. The proportion of deciduous/mixed forest within 2000 m of a blueberry field also reliably predicted native bee abundance in blueberry fields, however, the InVEST model provides an efficient tool to estimate bee abundance beyond the field perimeter.

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1977-01-01

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

Neural Network Optimization of Ligament Stiffnesses for the Enhanced Predictive Ability of a Patient-Specific, Computational Foot/Ankle Model.

PubMed

Chande, Ruchi D; Wayne, Jennifer S

2017-09-01

Computational models of diarthrodial joints serve to inform the biomechanical function of these structures, and as such, must be supplied appropriate inputs for performance that is representative of actual joint function. Inputs for these models are sourced from both imaging modalities as well as literature. The latter is often the source of mechanical properties for soft tissues, like ligament stiffnesses; however, such data are not always available for all the soft tissues nor is it known for patient-specific work. In the current research, a method to improve the ligament stiffness definition for a computational foot/ankle model was sought with the greater goal of improving the predictive ability of the computational model. Specifically, the stiffness values were optimized using artificial neural networks (ANNs); both feedforward and radial basis function networks (RBFNs) were considered. Optimal networks of each type were determined and subsequently used to predict stiffnesses for the foot/ankle model. Ultimately, the predicted stiffnesses were considered reasonable and resulted in enhanced performance of the computational model, suggesting that artificial neural networks can be used to optimize stiffness inputs.

Efficient search, mapping, and optimization of multi-protein genetic systems in diverse bacteria

PubMed Central

Farasat, Iman; Kushwaha, Manish; Collens, Jason; Easterbrook, Michael; Guido, Matthew; Salis, Howard M

2014-01-01

Developing predictive models of multi-protein genetic systems to understand and optimize their behavior remains a combinatorial challenge, particularly when measurement throughput is limited. We developed a computational approach to build predictive models and identify optimal sequences and expression levels, while circumventing combinatorial explosion. Maximally informative genetic system variants were first designed by the RBS Library Calculator, an algorithm to design sequences for efficiently searching a multi-protein expression space across a > 10,000-fold range with tailored search parameters and well-predicted translation rates. We validated the algorithm's predictions by characterizing 646 genetic system variants, encoded in plasmids and genomes, expressed in six gram-positive and gram-negative bacterial hosts. We then combined the search algorithm with system-level kinetic modeling, requiring the construction and characterization of 73 variants to build a sequence-expression-activity map (SEAMAP) for a biosynthesis pathway. Using model predictions, we designed and characterized 47 additional pathway variants to navigate its activity space, find optimal expression regions with desired activity response curves, and relieve rate-limiting steps in metabolism. Creating sequence-expression-activity maps accelerates the optimization of many protein systems and allows previous measurements to quantitatively inform future designs. PMID:24952589

Improving Environmental Model Calibration and Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-18

REPORT Final Report - Improving Environmental Model Calibration and Prediction 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: First, we have continued to...develop tools for efficient global optimization of environmental models. Our algorithms are hybrid algorithms that combine evolutionary strategies...toward practical hybrid optimization tools for environmental models. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 18-01-2011 13

SU-F-R-10: Selecting the Optimal Solution for Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Wang, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: To develop an evidential reasoning approach for selecting the optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained by a multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Methods: In the multi-objective radiomics model, both sensitivity and specificity are considered as the objective functions simultaneously. A Pareto solution set with many feasible solutions will be resulted from the multi-objective optimization. In this work, an optimal solution Selection methodology for Multi-Objective radiomics Learning model using the Evidential Reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed to select the optimal solution from the Pareto solution set. The proposed SMOLER method used the evidentialmore » reasoning approach to calculate the utility of each solution based on pre-set optimal solution selection rules. The solution with the highest utility was chosen as the optimal solution. In SMOLER, an optimal learning model coupled with clonal selection algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. In this study, PET, CT image features and clinical parameters were utilized for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Results: Total 126 solution sets were generated by adjusting predictive model parameters. Each Pareto set contains 100 feasible solutions. The solution selected by SMOLER within each Pareto set was compared to the manually selected optimal solution. Five-cross-validation was used to evaluate the optimal solution selection accuracy of SMOLER. The selection accuracies for five folds were 80.00%, 69.23%, 84.00%, 84.00%, 80.00%, respectively. Conclusion: An optimal solution selection methodology for multi-objective radiomics learning model using the evidential reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed. Experimental results show that the optimal solution can be found in approximately 80% cases.« less

Sootblowing optimization for improved boiler performance

DOEpatents

James, John Robert; McDermott, John; Piche, Stephen; Pickard, Fred; Parikh, Neel J.

2012-12-25

A sootblowing control system that uses predictive models to bridge the gap between sootblower operation and boiler performance goals. The system uses predictive modeling and heuristics (rules) associated with different zones in a boiler to determine an optimal sequence of sootblower operations and achieve boiler performance targets. The system performs the sootblower optimization while observing any operational constraints placed on the sootblowers.

Sootblowing optimization for improved boiler performance

DOEpatents

James, John Robert; McDermott, John; Piche, Stephen; Pickard, Fred; Parikh, Neel J

2013-07-30

A sootblowing control system that uses predictive models to bridge the gap between sootblower operation and boiler performance goals. The system uses predictive modeling and heuristics (rules) associated with different zones in a boiler to determine an optimal sequence of sootblower operations and achieve boiler performance targets. The system performs the sootblower optimization while observing any operational constraints placed on the sootblowers.

[Application of an artificial neural network in the design of sustained-release dosage forms].

PubMed

Wei, X H; Wu, J J; Liang, W Q

2001-09-01

To use the artificial neural network (ANN) in Matlab 5.1 tool-boxes to predict the formulations of sustained-release tablets. The solubilities of nine drugs and various ratios of HPMC: Dextrin for 63 tablet formulations were used as the ANN model input, and in vitro accumulation released at 6 sampling times were used as output. The ANN model was constructed by selecting the optimal number of iterations (25) and model structure in which there are one hidden layer and five hidden layer nodes. The optimized ANN model was used for prediction of formulation based on desired target in vitro dissolution-time profiles. ANN predicted profiles based on ANN predicted formulations were closely similar to the target profiles. The ANN could be used for predicting the dissolution profiles of sustained release dosage form and for the design of optimal formulation.

A predictive control framework for optimal energy extraction of wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vali, M.; van Wingerden, J. W.; Boersma, S.; Petrović, V.; Kühn, M.

2016-09-01

This paper proposes an adjoint-based model predictive control for optimal energy extraction of wind farms. It employs the axial induction factor of wind turbines to influence their aerodynamic interactions through the wake. The performance index is defined here as the total power production of the wind farm over a finite prediction horizon. A medium-fidelity wind farm model is utilized to predict the inflow propagation in advance. The adjoint method is employed to solve the formulated optimization problem in a cost effective way and the first part of the optimal solution is implemented over the control horizon. This procedure is repeated at the next controller sample time providing the feedback into the optimization. The effectiveness and some key features of the proposed approach are studied for a two turbine test case through simulations.

Reducing hydrologic model uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions using multimodel combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2012-12-01

Model errors are inevitable in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention in reducing model errors is by combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictions. A new dynamic approach (MM-1) to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their performance/skill contingent on the predictor state is proposed. We combine two hydrological models, "abcd" model and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel combination results in improved predictions, we compare multimodel scheme MM-1 with optimal model combination scheme (MM-O) by employing them in predicting the streamflow generated from a known hydrologic model (abcd model orVICmodel) with heteroscedastic error variance as well as from a hydrologic model that exhibits different structure than that of the candidate models (i.e., "abcd" model or VIC model). Results from the study show that streamflow estimated from single models performed better than multimodels under almost no measurement error. However, under increased measurement errors and model structural misspecification, both multimodel schemes (MM-1 and MM-O) consistently performed better than the single model prediction. Overall, MM-1 performs better than MM-O in predicting the monthly flow values as well as in predicting extreme monthly flows. Comparison of the weights obtained from each candidate model reveals that as measurement errors increase, MM-1 assigns weights equally for all the models, whereas MM-O assigns higher weights for always the best-performing candidate model under the calibration period. Applying the multimodel algorithms for predicting streamflows over four different sites revealed that MM-1 performs better than all single models and optimal model combination scheme, MM-O, in predicting the monthly flows as well as the flows during wetter months.

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations.

PubMed

Gerber, Brian D; Kendall, William L; Hooten, Mevin B; Dubovsky, James A; Drewien, Roderick C

2015-09-01

1. Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. 2. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. 3. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring-summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. 4. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. 5. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics. [digital simulation of human operators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D. L.

1978-01-01

The optimal control model of the human operator is used to develop closed loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed loop multirate simulation in which the optimal control model simulates the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

A Task-Optimized Neural Network Replicates Human Auditory Behavior, Predicts Brain Responses, and Reveals a Cortical Processing Hierarchy.

PubMed

Kell, Alexander J E; Yamins, Daniel L K; Shook, Erica N; Norman-Haignere, Sam V; McDermott, Josh H

2018-05-02

A core goal of auditory neuroscience is to build quantitative models that predict cortical responses to natural sounds. Reasoning that a complete model of auditory cortex must solve ecologically relevant tasks, we optimized hierarchical neural networks for speech and music recognition. The best-performing network contained separate music and speech pathways following early shared processing, potentially replicating human cortical organization. The network performed both tasks as well as humans and exhibited human-like errors despite not being optimized to do so, suggesting common constraints on network and human performance. The network predicted fMRI voxel responses substantially better than traditional spectrotemporal filter models throughout auditory cortex. It also provided a quantitative signature of cortical representational hierarchy-primary and non-primary responses were best predicted by intermediate and late network layers, respectively. The results suggest that task optimization provides a powerful set of tools for modeling sensory systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Tasseff, Byron A.; Bent, Russell W.

2014-02-26

Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers alteredmore » flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.« less

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Sepideh; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Makarynskyy, Oleg

2013-03-01

Accurate predictions of sea level with different forecast horizons are important for coastal and ocean engineering applications, as well as in land drainage and reclamation studies. The methodology of tidal harmonic analysis, which is generally used for obtaining a mathematical description of the tides, is data demanding requiring processing of tidal observation collected over several years. In the present study, hourly sea levels for Darwin Harbor, Australia were predicted using two different, data driven techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN). Multi linear regression (MLR) technique was used for selecting the optimal input combinations (lag times) of hourly sea level. The input combination comprises current sea level as well as five previous level values found to be optimal. For the ANFIS models, five different membership functions namely triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell, Gaussian and two Gaussian membership function were tested and employed for predicting sea level for the next 1 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The used ANN models were trained using three different algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent. Predictions of optimal ANFIS and ANN models were compared with those of the optimal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account statistics were used as comparison criteria. The obtained results indicated that triangular membership function was optimal for predictions with the ANFIS models while adaptive learning rate and Levenberg-Marquardt were most suitable for training the ANN models. Consequently, ANFIS and ANN models gave similar forecasts and performed better than the developed for the same purpose ARMA models for all the prediction intervals.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

PubMed

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

PubMed Central

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

Multiplexed Predictive Control of a Large Commercial Turbofan Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richter, hanz; Singaraju, Anil; Litt, Jonathan S.

2008-01-01

Model predictive control is a strategy well-suited to handle the highly complex, nonlinear, uncertain, and constrained dynamics involved in aircraft engine control problems. However, it has thus far been infeasible to implement model predictive control in engine control applications, because of the combination of model complexity and the time allotted for the control update calculation. In this paper, a multiplexed implementation is proposed that dramatically reduces the computational burden of the quadratic programming optimization that must be solved online as part of the model-predictive-control algorithm. Actuator updates are calculated sequentially and cyclically in a multiplexed implementation, as opposed to the simultaneous optimization taking place in conventional model predictive control. Theoretical aspects are discussed based on a nominal model, and actual computational savings are demonstrated using a realistic commercial engine model.

A Combination of Geographically Weighted Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study at Wanzhou in the Three Gorges Area, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Xianyu; Wang, Yi; Niu, Ruiqing; Hu, Youjian

2016-01-01

In this study, a novel coupling model for landslide susceptibility mapping is presented. In practice, environmental factors may have different impacts at a local scale in study areas. To provide better predictions, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique is firstly used in our method to segment study areas into a series of prediction regions with appropriate sizes. Meanwhile, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier is exploited in each prediction region for landslide susceptibility mapping. To further improve the prediction performance, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used in the prediction regions to obtain optimal parameters for the SVM classifier. To evaluate the prediction performance of our model, several SVM-based prediction models are utilized for comparison on a study area of the Wanzhou district in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Experimental results, based on three objective quantitative measures and visual qualitative evaluation, indicate that our model can achieve better prediction accuracies and is more effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. For instance, our model can achieve an overall prediction accuracy of 91.10%, which is 7.8%–19.1% higher than the traditional SVM-based models. In addition, the obtained landslide susceptibility map by our model can demonstrate an intensive correlation between the classified very high-susceptibility zone and the previously investigated landslides. PMID:27187430

A Combination of Geographically Weighted Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study at Wanzhou in the Three Gorges Area, China.

PubMed

Yu, Xianyu; Wang, Yi; Niu, Ruiqing; Hu, Youjian

2016-05-11

In this study, a novel coupling model for landslide susceptibility mapping is presented. In practice, environmental factors may have different impacts at a local scale in study areas. To provide better predictions, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique is firstly used in our method to segment study areas into a series of prediction regions with appropriate sizes. Meanwhile, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier is exploited in each prediction region for landslide susceptibility mapping. To further improve the prediction performance, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used in the prediction regions to obtain optimal parameters for the SVM classifier. To evaluate the prediction performance of our model, several SVM-based prediction models are utilized for comparison on a study area of the Wanzhou district in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Experimental results, based on three objective quantitative measures and visual qualitative evaluation, indicate that our model can achieve better prediction accuracies and is more effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. For instance, our model can achieve an overall prediction accuracy of 91.10%, which is 7.8%-19.1% higher than the traditional SVM-based models. In addition, the obtained landslide susceptibility map by our model can demonstrate an intensive correlation between the classified very high-susceptibility zone and the previously investigated landslides.

Departures From Optimality When Pursuing Multiple Approach or Avoidance Goals

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This article examines how people depart from optimality during multiple-goal pursuit. The authors operationalized optimality using dynamic programming, which is a mathematical model used to calculate expected value in multistage decisions. Drawing on prospect theory, they predicted that people are risk-averse when pursuing approach goals and are therefore more likely to prioritize the goal in the best position than the dynamic programming model suggests is optimal. The authors predicted that people are risk-seeking when pursuing avoidance goals and are therefore more likely to prioritize the goal in the worst position than is optimal. These predictions were supported by results from an experimental paradigm in which participants made a series of prioritization decisions while pursuing either 2 approach or 2 avoidance goals. This research demonstrates the usefulness of using decision-making theories and normative models to understand multiple-goal pursuit. PMID:26963081

Optimality Principles for Model-Based Prediction of Human Gait

PubMed Central

Ackermann, Marko; van den Bogert, Antonie J.

2010-01-01

Although humans have a large repertoire of potential movements, gait patterns tend to be stereotypical and appear to be selected according to optimality principles such as minimal energy. When applied to dynamic musculoskeletal models such optimality principles might be used to predict how a patient’s gait adapts to mechanical interventions such as prosthetic devices or surgery. In this paper we study the effects of different performance criteria on predicted gait patterns using a 2D musculoskeletal model. The associated optimal control problem for a family of different cost functions was solved utilizing the direct collocation method. It was found that fatigue-like cost functions produced realistic gait, with stance phase knee flexion, as opposed to energy-related cost functions which avoided knee flexion during the stance phase. We conclude that fatigue minimization may be one of the primary optimality principles governing human gait. PMID:20074736

Adaptive adjustment of interval predictive control based on combined model and application in shell brand petroleum distillation tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Chao; Zhang, Chunran; Gu, Xinfeng; Liu, Bin

2017-10-01

Constraints of the optimization objective are often unable to be met when predictive control is applied to industrial production process. Then, online predictive controller will not find a feasible solution or a global optimal solution. To solve this problem, based on Back Propagation-Auto Regressive with exogenous inputs (BP-ARX) combined control model, nonlinear programming method is used to discuss the feasibility of constrained predictive control, feasibility decision theorem of the optimization objective is proposed, and the solution method of soft constraint slack variables is given when the optimization objective is not feasible. Based on this, for the interval control requirements of the controlled variables, the slack variables that have been solved are introduced, the adaptive weighted interval predictive control algorithm is proposed, achieving adaptive regulation of the optimization objective and automatically adjust of the infeasible interval range, expanding the scope of the feasible region, and ensuring the feasibility of the interval optimization objective. Finally, feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm is validated through the simulation comparative experiments.

Info-gap robust-satisficing model of foraging behavior: do foragers optimize or satisfice?

PubMed

Carmel, Yohay; Ben-Haim, Yakov

2005-11-01

In this note we compare two mathematical models of foraging that reflect two competing theories of animal behavior: optimizing and robust satisficing. The optimal-foraging model is based on the marginal value theorem (MVT). The robust-satisficing model developed here is an application of info-gap decision theory. The info-gap robust-satisficing model relates to the same circumstances described by the MVT. We show how these two alternatives translate into specific predictions that at some points are quite disparate. We test these alternative predictions against available data collected in numerous field studies with a large number of species from diverse taxonomic groups. We show that a large majority of studies appear to support the robust-satisficing model and reject the optimal-foraging model.

Muscle Synergies May Improve Optimization Prediction of Knee Contact Forces During Walking

PubMed Central

Walter, Jonathan P.; Kinney, Allison L.; Banks, Scott A.; D'Lima, Darryl D.; Besier, Thor F.; Lloyd, David G.; Fregly, Benjamin J.

2014-01-01

The ability to predict patient-specific joint contact and muscle forces accurately could improve the treatment of walking-related disorders. Muscle synergy analysis, which decomposes a large number of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals into a small number of synergy control signals, could reduce the dimensionality and thus redundancy of the muscle and contact force prediction process. This study investigated whether use of subject-specific synergy controls can improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking. To generate the predictions, we performed mixed dynamic muscle force optimizations (i.e., inverse skeletal dynamics with forward muscle activation and contraction dynamics) using data collected from a subject implanted with a force-measuring knee replacement. Twelve optimization problems (three cases with four subcases each) that minimized the sum of squares of muscle excitations were formulated to investigate how synergy controls affect knee contact force predictions. The three cases were: (1) Calibrate+Match where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously matched, (2) Precalibrate+Predict where experimental knee contact forces were predicted using precalibrated muscle model parameters values from the first case, and (3) Calibrate+Predict where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously predicted, all while matching inverse dynamic loads at the hip, knee, and ankle. The four subcases used either 44 independent controls or five synergy controls with and without EMG shape tracking. For the Calibrate+Match case, all four subcases closely reproduced the measured medial and lateral knee contact forces (R2 ≥ 0.94, root-mean-square (RMS) error < 66 N), indicating sufficient model fidelity for contact force prediction. For the Precalibrate+Predict and Calibrate+Predict cases, synergy controls yielded better contact force predictions (0.61 < R2 < 0.90, 83 N < RMS error < 161 N) than did independent controls (-0.15 < R2 < 0.79, 124 N < RMS error < 343 N) for corresponding subcases. For independent controls, contact force predictions improved when precalibrated model parameter values or EMG shape tracking was used. For synergy controls, contact force predictions were relatively insensitive to how model parameter values were calibrated, while EMG shape tracking made lateral (but not medial) contact force predictions worse. For the subject and optimization cost function analyzed in this study, use of subject-specific synergy controls improved the accuracy of knee contact force predictions, especially for lateral contact force when EMG shape tracking was omitted, and reduced prediction sensitivity to uncertainties in muscle model parameter values. PMID:24402438

Muscle synergies may improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking.

PubMed

Walter, Jonathan P; Kinney, Allison L; Banks, Scott A; D'Lima, Darryl D; Besier, Thor F; Lloyd, David G; Fregly, Benjamin J

2014-02-01

The ability to predict patient-specific joint contact and muscle forces accurately could improve the treatment of walking-related disorders. Muscle synergy analysis, which decomposes a large number of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals into a small number of synergy control signals, could reduce the dimensionality and thus redundancy of the muscle and contact force prediction process. This study investigated whether use of subject-specific synergy controls can improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking. To generate the predictions, we performed mixed dynamic muscle force optimizations (i.e., inverse skeletal dynamics with forward muscle activation and contraction dynamics) using data collected from a subject implanted with a force-measuring knee replacement. Twelve optimization problems (three cases with four subcases each) that minimized the sum of squares of muscle excitations were formulated to investigate how synergy controls affect knee contact force predictions. The three cases were: (1) Calibrate+Match where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously matched, (2) Precalibrate+Predict where experimental knee contact forces were predicted using precalibrated muscle model parameters values from the first case, and (3) Calibrate+Predict where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously predicted, all while matching inverse dynamic loads at the hip, knee, and ankle. The four subcases used either 44 independent controls or five synergy controls with and without EMG shape tracking. For the Calibrate+Match case, all four subcases closely reproduced the measured medial and lateral knee contact forces (R2 ≥ 0.94, root-mean-square (RMS) error < 66 N), indicating sufficient model fidelity for contact force prediction. For the Precalibrate+Predict and Calibrate+Predict cases, synergy controls yielded better contact force predictions (0.61 < R2 < 0.90, 83 N < RMS error < 161 N) than did independent controls (-0.15 < R2 < 0.79, 124 N < RMS error < 343 N) for corresponding subcases. For independent controls, contact force predictions improved when precalibrated model parameter values or EMG shape tracking was used. For synergy controls, contact force predictions were relatively insensitive to how model parameter values were calibrated, while EMG shape tracking made lateral (but not medial) contact force predictions worse. For the subject and optimization cost function analyzed in this study, use of subject-specific synergy controls improved the accuracy of knee contact force predictions, especially for lateral contact force when EMG shape tracking was omitted, and reduced prediction sensitivity to uncertainties in muscle model parameter values.

Nonlinear Multiobjective MPC-Based Optimal Operation of a High Consistency Refining System in Papermaking

DOE PAGES

Li, Mingjie; Zhou, Ping; Wang, Hong; ...

2017-09-19

As one of the most important unit in the papermaking industry, the high consistency (HC) refining system is confronted with challenges such as improving pulp quality, energy saving, and emissions reduction in its operation processes. Here in this correspondence, an optimal operation of HC refining system is presented using nonlinear multiobjective model predictive control strategies that aim at set-point tracking objective of pulp quality, economic objective, and specific energy (SE) consumption objective, respectively. First, a set of input and output data at different times are employed to construct the subprocess model of the state process model for the HC refiningmore » system, and then the Wiener-type model can be obtained through combining the mechanism model of Canadian Standard Freeness and the state process model that determines their structures based on Akaike information criterion. Second, the multiobjective optimization strategy that optimizes both the set-point tracking objective of pulp quality and SE consumption is proposed simultaneously, which uses NSGA-II approach to obtain the Pareto optimal set. Furthermore, targeting at the set-point tracking objective of pulp quality, economic objective, and SE consumption objective, the sequential quadratic programming method is utilized to produce the optimal predictive controllers. In conclusion, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed methods can make the HC refining system provide a better performance of set-point tracking of pulp quality when these predictive controllers are employed. In addition, while the optimal predictive controllers orienting with comprehensive economic objective and SE consumption objective, it has been shown that they have significantly reduced the energy consumption.« less

Nonlinear Multiobjective MPC-Based Optimal Operation of a High Consistency Refining System in Papermaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Mingjie; Zhou, Ping; Wang, Hong

As one of the most important unit in the papermaking industry, the high consistency (HC) refining system is confronted with challenges such as improving pulp quality, energy saving, and emissions reduction in its operation processes. Here in this correspondence, an optimal operation of HC refining system is presented using nonlinear multiobjective model predictive control strategies that aim at set-point tracking objective of pulp quality, economic objective, and specific energy (SE) consumption objective, respectively. First, a set of input and output data at different times are employed to construct the subprocess model of the state process model for the HC refiningmore » system, and then the Wiener-type model can be obtained through combining the mechanism model of Canadian Standard Freeness and the state process model that determines their structures based on Akaike information criterion. Second, the multiobjective optimization strategy that optimizes both the set-point tracking objective of pulp quality and SE consumption is proposed simultaneously, which uses NSGA-II approach to obtain the Pareto optimal set. Furthermore, targeting at the set-point tracking objective of pulp quality, economic objective, and SE consumption objective, the sequential quadratic programming method is utilized to produce the optimal predictive controllers. In conclusion, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed methods can make the HC refining system provide a better performance of set-point tracking of pulp quality when these predictive controllers are employed. In addition, while the optimal predictive controllers orienting with comprehensive economic objective and SE consumption objective, it has been shown that they have significantly reduced the energy consumption.« less

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Research on reverse logistics location under uncertainty environment based on grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenqiang, Bao; Congwei, Zhu; Yuqin, Zhao; Quanke, Pan

This article constructs reverse logistic network based on uncertain environment, integrates the reverse logistics network and distribution network, and forms a closed network. An optimization model based on cost is established to help intermediate center, manufacturing center and remanufacturing center make location decision. A gray model GM (1, 1) is used to predict the product holdings of the collection points, and then prediction results are carried into the cost optimization model and a solution is got. Finally, an example is given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

Optimal flight initiation distance.

PubMed

Cooper, William E; Frederick, William G

2007-01-07

Decisions regarding flight initiation distance have received scant theoretical attention. A graphical model by Ydenberg and Dill (1986. The economics of fleeing from predators. Adv. Stud. Behav. 16, 229-249) that has guided research for the past 20 years specifies when escape begins. In the model, a prey detects a predator, monitors its approach until costs of escape and of remaining are equal, and then flees. The distance between predator and prey when escape is initiated (approach distance = flight initiation distance) occurs where decreasing cost of remaining and increasing cost of fleeing intersect. We argue that prey fleeing as predicted cannot maximize fitness because the best prey can do is break even during an encounter. We develop two optimality models, one applying when all expected future contribution to fitness (residual reproductive value) is lost if the prey dies, the other when any fitness gained (increase in expected RRV) during the encounter is retained after death. Both models predict optimal flight initiation distance from initial expected fitness, benefits obtainable during encounters, costs of escaping, and probability of being killed. Predictions match extensively verified predictions of Ydenberg and Dill's (1986) model. Our main conclusion is that optimality models are preferable to break-even models because they permit fitness maximization, offer many new testable predictions, and allow assessment of prey decisions in many naturally occurring situations through modification of benefit, escape cost, and risk functions.

A Complete Procedure for Predicting and Improving the Performance of HAWT's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abadi, Ali; Ertunç, Özgür; Sittig, Florian; Delgado, Antonio

2014-06-01

A complete procedure for predicting and improving the performance of the horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) has been developed. The first process is predicting the power extracted by the turbine and the derived rotor torque, which should be identical to that of the drive unit. The BEM method and a developed post-stall treatment for resolving stall-regulated HAWT is incorporated in the prediction. For that, a modified stall-regulated prediction model, which can predict the HAWT performance over the operating range of oncoming wind velocity, is derived from existing models. The model involves radius and chord, which has made it more general in applications for predicting the performance of different scales and rotor shapes of HAWTs. The second process is modifying the rotor shape by an optimization process, which can be applied to any existing HAWT, to improve its performance. A gradient- based optimization is used for adjusting the chord and twist angle distribution of the rotor blade to increase the extraction of the power while keeping the drive torque constant, thus the same drive unit can be kept. The final process is testing the modified turbine to predict its enhanced performance. The procedure is applied to NREL phase-VI 10kW as a baseline turbine. The study has proven the applicability of the developed model in predicting the performance of the baseline as well as the optimized turbine. In addition, the optimization method has shown that the power coefficient can be increased while keeping same design rotational speed.

A COMPARISON OF STATIC AND DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MUSCLE FORCE PREDICTIONS DURING WHEELCHAIR PROPULSION

PubMed Central

Morrow, Melissa M.; Rankin, Jeffery W.; Neptune, Richard R.; Kaufman, Kenton R.

2014-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to compare static and dynamic optimization muscle force and work predictions during the push phase of wheelchair propulsion. A secondary purpose was to compare the differences in predicted shoulder and elbow kinetics and kinematics and handrim forces. The forward dynamics simulation minimized differences between simulated and experimental data (obtained from 10 manual wheelchair users) and muscle co-contraction. For direct comparison between models, the shoulder and elbow muscle moment arms and net joint moments from the dynamic optimization were used as inputs into the static optimization routine. RMS errors between model predictions were calculated to quantify model agreement. There was a wide range of individual muscle force agreement that spanned from poor (26.4 % Fmax error in the middle deltoid) to good (6.4 % Fmax error in the anterior deltoid) in the prime movers of the shoulder. The predicted muscle forces from the static optimization were sufficient to create the appropriate motion and joint moments at the shoulder for the push phase of wheelchair propulsion, but showed deviations in the elbow moment, pronation-supination motion and hand rim forces. These results suggest the static approach does not produce results similar enough to be a replacement for forward dynamics simulations, and care should be taken in choosing the appropriate method for a specific task and set of constraints. Dynamic optimization modeling approaches may be required for motions that are greatly influenced by muscle activation dynamics or that require significant co-contraction. PMID:25282075

Effect of experimental design on the prediction performance of calibration models based on near-infrared spectroscopy for pharmaceutical applications.

PubMed

Bondi, Robert W; Igne, Benoît; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2012-12-01

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a valuable tool in the pharmaceutical industry, presenting opportunities for online analyses to achieve real-time assessment of intermediates and finished dosage forms. The purpose of this work was to investigate the effect of experimental designs on prediction performance of quantitative models based on NIRS using a five-component formulation as a model system. The following experimental designs were evaluated: five-level, full factorial (5-L FF); three-level, full factorial (3-L FF); central composite; I-optimal; and D-optimal. The factors for all designs were acetaminophen content and the ratio of microcrystalline cellulose to lactose monohydrate. Other constituents included croscarmellose sodium and magnesium stearate (content remained constant). Partial least squares-based models were generated using data from individual experimental designs that related acetaminophen content to spectral data. The effect of each experimental design was evaluated by determining the statistical significance of the difference in bias and standard error of the prediction for that model's prediction performance. The calibration model derived from the I-optimal design had similar prediction performance as did the model derived from the 5-L FF design, despite containing 16 fewer design points. It also outperformed all other models estimated from designs with similar or fewer numbers of samples. This suggested that experimental-design selection for calibration-model development is critical, and optimum performance can be achieved with efficient experimental designs (i.e., optimal designs).

Aircraft Engine Thrust Estimator Design Based on GSA-LSSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Hanlin; Zhang, Tianhong

2017-08-01

In view of the necessity of highly precise and reliable thrust estimator to achieve direct thrust control of aircraft engine, based on support vector regression (SVR), as well as least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and a new optimization algorithm - gravitational search algorithm (GSA), by performing integrated modelling and parameter optimization, a GSA-LSSVM-based thrust estimator design solution is proposed. The results show that compared to particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, GSA can find unknown optimization parameter better and enables the model developed with better prediction and generalization ability. The model can better predict aircraft engine thrust and thus fulfills the need of direct thrust control of aircraft engine.

Optimization of Nd: YAG Laser Marking of Alumina Ceramic Using RSM And ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Josephine; Doloi, B.; Bhattacharyya, B.

2011-01-01

The present research papers deals with the artificial neural network (ANN) and the response surface methodology (RSM) based mathematical modeling and also an optimization analysis on marking characteristics on alumina ceramic. The experiments have been planned and carried out based on Design of Experiment (DOE). It also analyses the influence of the major laser marking process parameters and the optimal combination of laser marking process parametric setting has been obtained. The output of the RSM optimal data is validated through experimentation and ANN predictive model. A good agreement is observed between the results based on ANN predictive model and actual experimental observations.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Chance Constrained Remediation Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.

2012-12-01

Groundwater remediation designs are heavily relying on simulation models which are subjected to various sources of uncertainty in their predictions. To develop a robust remediation design, it is crucial to understand the effect of uncertainty sources. In this research, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) framework to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a multi-layer frame, where each layer targets a source of uncertainty. The HBMA framework provides an insight to uncertainty priorities and propagation. In addition, HBMA allows evaluating model weights in different hierarchy levels and assessing the relative importance of models in each level. To account for uncertainty, we employ a chance constrained (CC) programming for stochastic remediation design. Chance constrained programming was implemented traditionally to account for parameter uncertainty. Recently, many studies suggested that model structure uncertainty is not negligible compared to parameter uncertainty. Using chance constrained programming along with HBMA can provide a rigorous tool for groundwater remediation designs under uncertainty. In this research, the HBMA-CC was applied to a remediation design in a synthetic aquifer. The design was to develop a scavenger well approach to mitigate saltwater intrusion toward production wells. HBMA was employed to assess uncertainties from model structure, parameter estimation and kriging interpolation. An improved harmony search optimization method was used to find the optimal location of the scavenger well. We evaluated prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells through the HBMA framework. The results showed that choosing the single best model may lead to a significant error in evaluating prediction variances for two reasons. First, considering the single best model, variances that stem from uncertainty in the model structure will be ignored. Second, considering the best model with non-dominant model weight may underestimate or overestimate prediction variances by ignoring other plausible propositions. Chance constraints allow developing a remediation design with a desirable reliability. However, considering the single best model, the calculated reliability will be different from the desirable reliability. We calculated the reliability of the design for the models at different levels of HBMA. The results showed that by moving toward the top layers of HBMA, the calculated reliability converges to the chosen reliability. We employed the chance constrained optimization along with the HBMA framework to find the optimal location and pumpage for the scavenger well. The results showed that using models at different levels in the HBMA framework, the optimal location of the scavenger well remained the same, but the optimal extraction rate was altered. Thus, we concluded that the optimal pumping rate was sensitive to the prediction variance. Also, the prediction variance was changed by using different extraction rate. Using very high extraction rate will cause prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells to approach zero regardless of which HBMA models used.

A linear model fails to predict orientation selectivity of cells in the cat visual cortex.

PubMed Central

Volgushev, M; Vidyasagar, T R; Pei, X

1996-01-01

1. Postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) evoked by visual stimulation in simple cells in the cat visual cortex were recorded using in vivo whole-cell technique. Responses to small spots of light presented at different positions over the receptive field and responses to elongated bars of different orientations centred on the receptive field were recorded. 2. To test whether a linear model can account for orientation selectivity of cortical neurones, responses to elongated bars were compared with responses predicted by a linear model from the receptive field map obtained from flashing spots. 3. The linear model faithfully predicted the preferred orientation, but not the degree of orientation selectivity or the sharpness of orientation tuning. The ratio of optimal to non-optimal responses was always underestimated by the model. 4. Thus non-linear mechanisms, which can include suppression of non-optimal responses and/or amplification of optimal responses, are involved in the generation of orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex. PMID:8930828

Prediction of chemical biodegradability using support vector classifier optimized with differential evolution.

PubMed

Cao, Qi; Leung, K M

2014-09-22

Reliable computer models for the prediction of chemical biodegradability from molecular descriptors and fingerprints are very important for making health and environmental decisions. Coupling of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm with the support vector classifier (SVC) in order to optimize the main parameters of the classifier resulted in an improved classifier called the DE-SVC, which is introduced in this paper for use in chemical biodegradability studies. The DE-SVC was applied to predict the biodegradation of chemicals on the basis of extensive sample data sets and known structural features of molecules. Our optimization experiments showed that DE can efficiently find the proper parameters of the SVC. The resulting classifier possesses strong robustness and reliability compared with grid search, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization methods. The classification experiments conducted here showed that the DE-SVC exhibits better classification performance than models previously used for such studies. It is a more effective and efficient prediction model for chemical biodegradability.

Intelligent sensing sensory quality of Chinese rice wine using near infrared spectroscopy and nonlinear tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Qin; Chen, Quansheng; Zhao, Jiewen

2016-02-01

The approach presented herein reports the application of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, in contrast with human sensory panel, as a tool for estimating Chinese rice wine quality; concretely, to achieve the prediction of the overall sensory scores assigned by the trained sensory panel. Back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) combined with adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) algorithm, namely BP-AdaBoost, as a novel nonlinear algorithm, was proposed in modeling. First, the optimal spectra intervals were selected by synergy interval partial least square (Si-PLS). Then, BP-AdaBoost model based on the optimal spectra intervals was established, called Si-BP-AdaBoost model. These models were optimized by cross validation, and the performance of each final model was evaluated according to correlation coefficient (Rp) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) in prediction set. Si-BP-AdaBoost showed excellent performance in comparison with other models. The best Si-BP-AdaBoost model was achieved with Rp = 0.9180 and RMSEP = 2.23 in the prediction set. It was concluded that NIR spectroscopy combined with Si-BP-AdaBoost was an appropriate method for the prediction of the sensory quality in Chinese rice wine.

Counteracting Obstacles with Optimistic Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ying; Fishbach, Ayelet

2010-01-01

This research tested for counteractive optimism: a self-control strategy of generating optimistic predictions of future goal attainment in order to overcome anticipated obstacles in goal pursuit. In support of the counteractive optimism model, participants in 5 studies predicted better performance, more time invested in goal activities, and lower…

Bi-objective integer programming for RNA secondary structure prediction with pseudoknots.

PubMed

Legendre, Audrey; Angel, Eric; Tahi, Fariza

2018-01-15

RNA structure prediction is an important field in bioinformatics, and numerous methods and tools have been proposed. Pseudoknots are specific motifs of RNA secondary structures that are difficult to predict. Almost all existing methods are based on a single model and return one solution, often missing the real structure. An alternative approach would be to combine different models and return a (small) set of solutions, maximizing its quality and diversity in order to increase the probability that it contains the real structure. We propose here an original method for predicting RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots, based on integer programming. We developed a generic bi-objective integer programming algorithm allowing to return optimal and sub-optimal solutions optimizing simultaneously two models. This algorithm was then applied to the combination of two known models of RNA secondary structure prediction, namely MEA and MFE. The resulting tool, called BiokoP, is compared with the other methods in the literature. The results show that the best solution (structure with the highest F 1 -score) is, in most cases, given by BiokoP. Moreover, the results of BiokoP are homogeneous, regardless of the pseudoknot type or the presence or not of pseudoknots. Indeed, the F 1 -scores are always higher than 70% for any number of solutions returned. The results obtained by BiokoP show that combining the MEA and the MFE models, as well as returning several optimal and several sub-optimal solutions, allow to improve the prediction of secondary structures. One perspective of our work is to combine better mono-criterion models, in particular to combine a model based on the comparative approach with the MEA and the MFE models. This leads to develop in the future a new multi-objective algorithm to combine more than two models. BiokoP is available on the EvryRNA platform: https://EvryRNA.ibisc.univ-evry.fr .

New closed-form approximation for skin chromophore mapping.

PubMed

Välisuo, Petri; Kaartinen, Ilkka; Tuchin, Valery; Alander, Jarmo

2011-04-01

The concentrations of blood and melanin in skin can be estimated based on the reflectance of light. Many models for this estimation have been built, such as Monte Carlo simulation, diffusion models, and the differential modified Beer-Lambert law. The optimization-based methods are too slow for chromophore mapping of high-resolution spectral images, and the differential modified Beer-Lambert is not often accurate enough. Optimal coefficients for the differential Beer-Lambert model are calculated by differentiating the diffusion model, optimized to the normal skin spectrum. The derivatives are then used in predicting the difference in chromophore concentrations from the difference in absorption spectra. The accuracy of the method is tested both computationally and experimentally using a Monte Carlo multilayer simulation model, and the data are measured from the palm of a hand during an Allen's test, which modulates the blood content of skin. The correlations of the given and predicted blood, melanin, and oxygen saturation levels are correspondingly r = 0.94, r = 0.99, and r = 0.73. The prediction of the concentrations for all pixels in a 1-megapixel image would take ∼ 20 min, which is orders of magnitude faster than the methods based on optimization during the prediction.

Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Niño prediction errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

2018-04-01

Errors in initial conditions and model parameters (MPs) are the main sources that limit the accuracy of ENSO predictions. In addition to exploring the initial error-induced prediction errors, model errors are equally important in determining prediction performance. In this paper, the MP-related optimal errors that can cause prominent error growth in ENSO predictions are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Two MPs related to the Bjerknes feedback are considered in the CNOP analysis: one involves the SST-surface wind coupling ({α _τ } ), and the other involves the thermocline effect on the SST ({α _{Te}} ). The MP-related optimal perturbations (denoted as CNOP-P) are found uniformly positive and restrained in a small region: the {α _τ } component is mainly concentrated in the central equatorial Pacific, and the {α _{Te}} component is mainly located in the eastern cold tongue region. This kind of CNOP-P enhances the strength of the Bjerknes feedback and induces an El Niño- or La Niña-like error evolution, resulting in an El Niño-like systematic bias in this model. The CNOP-P is also found to play a role in the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO predictions. Evidently, such error growth is primarily attributed to MP errors in small areas based on the localized distribution of CNOP-P. Further sensitivity experiments firmly indicate that ENSO simulations are sensitive to the representation of SST-surface wind coupling in the central Pacific and to the thermocline effect in the eastern Pacific in the ICM. These results provide guidance and theoretical support for the future improvement in numerical models to reduce the systematic bias and SPB phenomenon in ENSO predictions.

[Optimal extraction of effective constituents from Aralia elata by central composite design and response surface methodology].

PubMed

Lv, Shao-Wa; Liu, Dong; Hu, Pan-Pan; Ye, Xu-Yan; Xiao, Hong-Bin; Kuang, Hai-Xue

2010-03-01

To optimize the process of extracting effective constituents from Aralia elata by response surface methodology. The independent variables were ethanol concentration, reflux time and solvent fold, the dependent variable was extraction rate of total saponins in Aralia elata. Linear or no-linear mathematic models were used to estimate the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Response surface methodology was used to optimize the process of extraction. The prediction was carried out through comparing the observed and predicted values. Regression coefficient of binomial fitting complex model was as high as 0.9617, the optimum conditions of extraction process were 70% ethanol, 2.5 hours for reflux, 20-fold solvent and 3 times for extraction. The bias between observed and predicted values was -2.41%. It shows the optimum model is highly predictive.

A rapid quantification method for the screening indicator for β-thalassemia with near-infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiemei; Peng, Lijun; Han, Yun; Yao, Lijun; Zhang, Jing; Pan, Tao

2018-03-01

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics was applied to rapidly analyse haemoglobin A2 (HbA2) for β-thalassemia screening in human haemolysate samples. The relative content indicator HbA2 was indirectly quantified by simultaneous analysis of two absolute content indicators (Hb and Hb • HbA2). According to the comprehensive prediction effect of the multiple partitioning of calibration and prediction sets, the parameters were optimized to achieve modelling stability, and the preferred models were validated using the samples not involved in modelling. Savitzky-Golay smoothing was firstly used for the spectral pretreatment. The absorbance optimization partial least squares (AO-PLS) was used to eliminate high-absorption wave-bands appropriately. The equidistant combination PLS (EC-PLS) was further used to optimize wavelength models. The selected optimal models were I = 856 nm, N = 16, G = 1 and F = 6 for Hb and I = 988 nm, N = 12, G = 2 and F = 5 for Hb • HbA2. Through independent validation, the root-mean-square errors and correlation coefficients for prediction (RMSEP, RP) were 3.50 g L- 1 and 0.977 for Hb and 0.38 g L- 1 and 0.917 for Hb • HbA2, respectively. The predicted values of relative percentage HbA2 were further calculated, and the calculated RMSEP and RP were 0.31% and 0.965, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for β-thalassemia both reached 100%. Therefore, the prediction of HbA2 achieved high accuracy for distinguishing β-thalassemia. The local optimal models for single parameter and the optimal equivalent model sets were proposed, providing more models to match possible constraints in practical applications. The NIR analysis method for the screening indicator of β-thalassemia was successfully established. The proposed method was rapid, simple and promising for thalassemia screening in a large population.

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio Based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization

PubMed Central

Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-01-01

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control. PMID:29461469

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Sen; Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-02-20

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control.

Information-theoretic approach to interactive learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Still, S.

2009-01-01

The principles of statistical mechanics and information theory play an important role in learning and have inspired both theory and the design of numerous machine learning algorithms. The new aspect in this paper is a focus on integrating feedback from the learner. A quantitative approach to interactive learning and adaptive behavior is proposed, integrating model- and decision-making into one theoretical framework. This paper follows simple principles by requiring that the observer's world model and action policy should result in maximal predictive power at minimal complexity. Classes of optimal action policies and of optimal models are derived from an objective function that reflects this trade-off between prediction and complexity. The resulting optimal models then summarize, at different levels of abstraction, the process's causal organization in the presence of the learner's actions. A fundamental consequence of the proposed principle is that the learner's optimal action policies balance exploration and control as an emerging property. Interestingly, the explorative component is present in the absence of policy randomness, i.e. in the optimal deterministic behavior. This is a direct result of requiring maximal predictive power in the presence of feedback.

Protein construct storage: Bayesian variable selection and prediction with mixtures.

PubMed

Clyde, M A; Parmigiani, G

1998-07-01

Determining optimal conditions for protein storage while maintaining a high level of protein activity is an important question in pharmaceutical research. A designed experiment based on a space-filling design was conducted to understand the effects of factors affecting protein storage and to establish optimal storage conditions. Different model-selection strategies to identify important factors may lead to very different answers about optimal conditions. Uncertainty about which factors are important, or model uncertainty, can be a critical issue in decision-making. We use Bayesian variable selection methods for linear models to identify important variables in the protein storage data, while accounting for model uncertainty. We also use the Bayesian framework to build predictions based on a large family of models, rather than an individual model, and to evaluate the probability that certain candidate storage conditions are optimal.

Computational Intelligence Modeling of the Macromolecules Release from PLGA Microspheres-Focus on Feature Selection.

PubMed

Zawbaa, Hossam M; Szlȩk, Jakub; Grosan, Crina; Jachowicz, Renata; Mendyk, Aleksander

2016-01-01

Poly-lactide-co-glycolide (PLGA) is a copolymer of lactic and glycolic acid. Drug release from PLGA microspheres depends not only on polymer properties but also on drug type, particle size, morphology of microspheres, release conditions, etc. Selecting a subset of relevant properties for PLGA is a challenging machine learning task as there are over three hundred features to consider. In this work, we formulate the selection of critical attributes for PLGA as a multiobjective optimization problem with the aim of minimizing the error of predicting the dissolution profile while reducing the number of attributes selected. Four bio-inspired optimization algorithms: antlion optimization, binary version of antlion optimization, grey wolf optimization, and social spider optimization are used to select the optimal feature set for predicting the dissolution profile of PLGA. Besides these, LASSO algorithm is also used for comparisons. Selection of crucial variables is performed under the assumption that both predictability and model simplicity are of equal importance to the final result. During the feature selection process, a set of input variables is employed to find minimum generalization error across different predictive models and their settings/architectures. The methodology is evaluated using predictive modeling for which various tools are chosen, such as Cubist, random forests, artificial neural networks (monotonic MLP, deep learning MLP), multivariate adaptive regression splines, classification and regression tree, and hybrid systems of fuzzy logic and evolutionary computations (fugeR). The experimental results are compared with the results reported by Szlȩk. We obtain a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 15.97% versus 15.4%, and the number of selected input features is smaller, nine versus eleven.

Computational Intelligence Modeling of the Macromolecules Release from PLGA Microspheres—Focus on Feature Selection

PubMed Central

Zawbaa, Hossam M.; Szlȩk, Jakub; Grosan, Crina; Jachowicz, Renata; Mendyk, Aleksander

2016-01-01

Poly-lactide-co-glycolide (PLGA) is a copolymer of lactic and glycolic acid. Drug release from PLGA microspheres depends not only on polymer properties but also on drug type, particle size, morphology of microspheres, release conditions, etc. Selecting a subset of relevant properties for PLGA is a challenging machine learning task as there are over three hundred features to consider. In this work, we formulate the selection of critical attributes for PLGA as a multiobjective optimization problem with the aim of minimizing the error of predicting the dissolution profile while reducing the number of attributes selected. Four bio-inspired optimization algorithms: antlion optimization, binary version of antlion optimization, grey wolf optimization, and social spider optimization are used to select the optimal feature set for predicting the dissolution profile of PLGA. Besides these, LASSO algorithm is also used for comparisons. Selection of crucial variables is performed under the assumption that both predictability and model simplicity are of equal importance to the final result. During the feature selection process, a set of input variables is employed to find minimum generalization error across different predictive models and their settings/architectures. The methodology is evaluated using predictive modeling for which various tools are chosen, such as Cubist, random forests, artificial neural networks (monotonic MLP, deep learning MLP), multivariate adaptive regression splines, classification and regression tree, and hybrid systems of fuzzy logic and evolutionary computations (fugeR). The experimental results are compared with the results reported by Szlȩk. We obtain a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 15.97% versus 15.4%, and the number of selected input features is smaller, nine versus eleven. PMID:27315205

Simultaneous learning and filtering without delusions: a Bayes-optimal combination of Predictive Inference and Adaptive Filtering.

PubMed

Kneissler, Jan; Drugowitsch, Jan; Friston, Karl; Butz, Martin V

2015-01-01

Predictive coding appears to be one of the fundamental working principles of brain processing. Amongst other aspects, brains often predict the sensory consequences of their own actions. Predictive coding resembles Kalman filtering, where incoming sensory information is filtered to produce prediction errors for subsequent adaptation and learning. However, to generate prediction errors given motor commands, a suitable temporal forward model is required to generate predictions. While in engineering applications, it is usually assumed that this forward model is known, the brain has to learn it. When filtering sensory input and learning from the residual signal in parallel, a fundamental problem arises: the system can enter a delusional loop when filtering the sensory information using an overly trusted forward model. In this case, learning stalls before accurate convergence because uncertainty about the forward model is not properly accommodated. We present a Bayes-optimal solution to this generic and pernicious problem for the case of linear forward models, which we call Predictive Inference and Adaptive Filtering (PIAF). PIAF filters incoming sensory information and learns the forward model simultaneously. We show that PIAF is formally related to Kalman filtering and to the Recursive Least Squares linear approximation method, but combines these procedures in a Bayes optimal fashion. Numerical evaluations confirm that the delusional loop is precluded and that the learning of the forward model is more than 10-times faster when compared to a naive combination of Kalman filtering and Recursive Least Squares.

MicroRNAfold: pre-microRNA secondary structure prediction based on modified NCM model with thermodynamics-based scoring strategy.

PubMed

Han, Dianwei; Zhang, Jun; Tang, Guiliang

2012-01-01

An accurate prediction of the pre-microRNA secondary structure is important in miRNA informatics. Based on a recently proposed model, nucleotide cyclic motifs (NCM), to predict RNA secondary structure, we propose and implement a Modified NCM (MNCM) model with a physics-based scoring strategy to tackle the problem of pre-microRNA folding. Our microRNAfold is implemented using a global optimal algorithm based on the bottom-up local optimal solutions. Our experimental results show that microRNAfold outperforms the current leading prediction tools in terms of True Negative rate, False Negative rate, Specificity, and Matthews coefficient ratio.

Optimization of Nd: YAG Laser Marking of Alumina Ceramic Using RSM And ANN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peter, Josephine; Doloi, B.; Bhattacharyya, B.

The present research papers deals with the artificial neural network (ANN) and the response surface methodology (RSM) based mathematical modeling and also an optimization analysis on marking characteristics on alumina ceramic. The experiments have been planned and carried out based on Design of Experiment (DOE). It also analyses the influence of the major laser marking process parameters and the optimal combination of laser marking process parametric setting has been obtained. The output of the RSM optimal data is validated through experimentation and ANN predictive model. A good agreement is observed between the results based on ANN predictive model and actualmore » experimental observations.« less

Using genetic algorithms to optimise current and future health planning--the example of ambulance locations.

PubMed

Sasaki, Satoshi; Comber, Alexis J; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Brunsdon, Chris

2010-01-28

Ambulance response time is a crucial factor in patient survival. The number of emergency cases (EMS cases) requiring an ambulance is increasing due to changes in population demographics. This is decreasing ambulance response times to the emergency scene. This paper predicts EMS cases for 5-year intervals from 2020, to 2050 by correlating current EMS cases with demographic factors at the level of the census area and predicted population changes. It then applies a modified grouping genetic algorithm to compare current and future optimal locations and numbers of ambulances. Sets of potential locations were evaluated in terms of the (current and predicted) EMS case distances to those locations. Future EMS demands were predicted to increase by 2030 using the model (R2 = 0.71). The optimal locations of ambulances based on future EMS cases were compared with current locations and with optimal locations modelled on current EMS case data. Optimising the location of ambulance stations locations reduced the average response times by 57 seconds. Current and predicted future EMS demand at modelled locations were calculated and compared. The reallocation of ambulances to optimal locations improved response times and could contribute to higher survival rates from life-threatening medical events. Modelling EMS case 'demand' over census areas allows the data to be correlated to population characteristics and optimal 'supply' locations to be identified. Comparing current and future optimal scenarios allows more nuanced planning decisions to be made. This is a generic methodology that could be used to provide evidence in support of public health planning and decision making.

A detailed comparison of optimality and simplicity in perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Shen, Shan; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-01-01

Two prominent ideas in the study of decision-making have been that organisms behave near-optimally, and that they use simple heuristic rules. These principles might be operating in different types of tasks, but this possibility cannot be fully investigated without a direct, rigorous comparison within a single task. Such a comparison was lacking in most previous studies, because a) the optimal decision rule was simple; b) no simple suboptimal rules were considered; c) it was unclear what was optimal, or d) a simple rule could closely approximate the optimal rule. Here, we used a perceptual decision-making task in which the optimal decision rule is well-defined and complex, and makes qualitatively distinct predictions from many simple suboptimal rules. We find that all simple rules tested fail to describe human behavior, that the optimal rule accounts well for the data, and that several complex suboptimal rules are indistinguishable from the optimal one. Moreover, we found evidence that the optimal model is close to the true model: first, the better the trial-to-trial predictions of a suboptimal model agree with those of the optimal model, the better that suboptimal model fits; second, our estimate of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the optimal model and the true model is not significantly different from zero. When observers receive no feedback, the optimal model still describes behavior best, suggesting that sensory uncertainty is implicitly represented and taken into account. Beyond the task and models studied here, our results have implications for best practices of model comparison. PMID:27177259

Patient-specific dosimetric endpoints based treatment plan quality control in radiotherapy.

PubMed

Song, Ting; Staub, David; Chen, Mingli; Lu, Weiguo; Tian, Zhen; Jia, Xun; Li, Yongbao; Zhou, Linghong; Jiang, Steve B; Gu, Xuejun

2015-11-07

In intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), the optimal plan for each patient is specific due to unique patient anatomy. To achieve such a plan, patient-specific dosimetric goals reflecting each patient's unique anatomy should be defined and adopted in the treatment planning procedure for plan quality control. This study is to develop such a personalized treatment plan quality control tool by predicting patient-specific dosimetric endpoints (DEs). The incorporation of patient specific DEs is realized by a multi-OAR geometry-dosimetry model, capable of predicting optimal DEs based on the individual patient's geometry. The overall quality of a treatment plan is then judged with a numerical treatment plan quality indicator and characterized as optimal or suboptimal. Taking advantage of clinically available prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatment plans, we built and evaluated our proposed plan quality control tool. Using our developed tool, six of twenty evaluated plans were identified as sub-optimal plans. After plan re-optimization, these suboptimal plans achieved better OAR dose sparing without sacrificing the PTV coverage, and the dosimetric endpoints of the re-optimized plans agreed well with the model predicted values, which validate the predictability of the proposed tool. In conclusion, the developed tool is able to accurately predict optimally achievable DEs of multiple OARs, identify suboptimal plans, and guide plan optimization. It is a useful tool for achieving patient-specific treatment plan quality control.

The Role of Multimodel Combination in Improving Streamflow Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Li, W.

2008-12-01

Model errors are the inevitable part in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention to reduce model errors is by optimally combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictability. In this study, we present a new approach to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their predictability contingent on the predictor state. We combine two hydrological models, 'abcd' model and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, with each model's parameter being estimated by two different objective functions to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. The performance of multimodel predictions is compared with individual model predictions using correlation, root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel predictions result in improved predictions, we evaluate the proposed algorithm by testing it against streamflow generated from a known model ('abcd' model or VIC model) with errors being homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. Results from the study show that streamflow simulated from individual models performed better than multimodels under almost no model error. Under increased model error, the multimodel consistently performed better than the single model prediction in terms of all performance measures. The study also evaluates the proposed algorithm for streamflow predictions in two humid river basins from NC as well as in two arid basins from Arizona. Through detailed validation in these four sites, the study shows that multimodel approach better predicts the observed streamflow in comparison to the single model predictions.

Large-scale linear programs in planning and prediction.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

Large-scale linear programs are at the core of many traffic-related optimization problems in both planning and prediction. Moreover, many of these involve significant uncertainty, and hence are modeled using either chance constraints, or robust optim...

Investigation of trunk muscle activities during lifting using a multi-objective optimization-based model and intelligent optimization algorithms.

PubMed

Ghiasi, Mohammad Sadegh; Arjmand, Navid; Boroushaki, Mehrdad; Farahmand, Farzam

2016-03-01

A six-degree-of-freedom musculoskeletal model of the lumbar spine was developed to predict the activity of trunk muscles during light, moderate and heavy lifting tasks in standing posture. The model was formulated into a multi-objective optimization problem, minimizing the sum of the cubed muscle stresses and maximizing the spinal stability index. Two intelligent optimization algorithms, i.e., the vector evaluated particle swarm optimization (VEPSO) and nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA), were employed to solve the optimization problem. The optimal solution for each task was then found in the way that the corresponding in vivo intradiscal pressure could be reproduced. Results indicated that both algorithms predicted co-activity in the antagonistic abdominal muscles, as well as an increase in the stability index when going from the light to the heavy task. For all of the light, moderate and heavy tasks, the muscles' activities predictions of the VEPSO and the NSGA were generally consistent and in the same order of the in vivo electromyography data. The proposed methodology is thought to provide improved estimations for muscle activities by considering the spinal stability and incorporating the in vivo intradiscal pressure data.

Computational optimization and biological evolution.

PubMed

Goryanin, Igor

2010-10-01

Modelling and optimization principles become a key concept in many biological areas, especially in biochemistry. Definitions of objective function, fitness and co-evolution, although they differ between biology and mathematics, are similar in a general sense. Although successful in fitting models to experimental data, and some biochemical predictions, optimization and evolutionary computations should be developed further to make more accurate real-life predictions, and deal not only with one organism in isolation, but also with communities of symbiotic and competing organisms. One of the future goals will be to explain and predict evolution not only for organisms in shake flasks or fermenters, but for real competitive multispecies environments.

A Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Approach with Local Search for Predicting Protein Folding.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Lin, Yu-Shiun; Chuang, Li-Yeh; Chang, Hsueh-Wei

2017-10-01

The hydrophobic-polar (HP) model is commonly used for predicting protein folding structures and hydrophobic interactions. This study developed a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based algorithm combined with local search algorithms; specifically, the high exploration PSO (HEPSO) algorithm (which can execute global search processes) was combined with three local search algorithms (hill-climbing algorithm, greedy algorithm, and Tabu table), yielding the proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm. By using 20 known protein structures, we evaluated the performance of the HE-L-PSO algorithm in predicting protein folding in the HP model. The proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm exhibited favorable performance in predicting both short and long amino acid sequences with high reproducibility and stability, compared with seven reported algorithms. The HE-L-PSO algorithm yielded optimal solutions for all predicted protein folding structures. All HE-L-PSO-predicted protein folding structures possessed a hydrophobic core that is similar to normal protein folding.

Enhancement of multimodality texture-based prediction models via optimization of PET and MR image acquisition protocols: a proof of concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallières, Martin; Laberge, Sébastien; Diamant, André; El Naqa, Issam

2017-11-01

Texture-based radiomic models constructed from medical images have the potential to support cancer treatment management via personalized assessment of tumour aggressiveness. While the identification of stable texture features under varying imaging settings is crucial for the translation of radiomics analysis into routine clinical practice, we hypothesize in this work that a complementary optimization of image acquisition parameters prior to texture feature extraction could enhance the predictive performance of texture-based radiomic models. As a proof of concept, we evaluated the possibility of enhancing a model constructed for the early prediction of lung metastases in soft-tissue sarcomas by optimizing PET and MR image acquisition protocols via computerized simulations of image acquisitions with varying parameters. Simulated PET images from 30 STS patients were acquired by varying the extent of axial data combined per slice (‘span’). Simulated T 1-weighted and T 2-weighted MR images were acquired by varying the repetition time and echo time in a spin-echo pulse sequence, respectively. We analyzed the impact of the variations of PET and MR image acquisition parameters on individual textures, and we investigated how these variations could enhance the global response and the predictive properties of a texture-based model. Our results suggest that it is feasible to identify an optimal set of image acquisition parameters to improve prediction performance. The model constructed with textures extracted from simulated images acquired with a standard clinical set of acquisition parameters reached an average AUC of 0.84 +/- 0.01 in bootstrap testing experiments. In comparison, the model performance significantly increased using an optimal set of image acquisition parameters (p = 0.04 ), with an average AUC of 0.89 +/- 0.01 . Ultimately, specific acquisition protocols optimized to generate superior radiomics measurements for a given clinical problem could be developed and standardized via dedicated computer simulations and thereafter validated using clinical scanners.

Mathematical Modeling and Optimizing of in Vitro Hormonal Combination for G × N15 Vegetative Rootstock Proliferation Using Artificial Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA)

PubMed Central

Arab, Mohammad M.; Yadollahi, Abbas; Ahmadi, Hamed; Eftekhari, Maliheh; Maleki, Masoud

2017-01-01

The efficiency of a hybrid systems method which combined artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a modeling tool and genetic algorithms (GAs) as an optimizing method for input variables used in ANN modeling was assessed. Hence, as a new technique, it was applied for the prediction and optimization of the plant hormones concentrations and combinations for in vitro proliferation of Garnem (G × N15) rootstock as a case study. Optimizing hormones combination was surveyed by modeling the effects of various concentrations of cytokinin–auxin, i.e., BAP, KIN, TDZ, IBA, and NAA combinations (inputs) on four growth parameters (outputs), i.e., micro-shoots number per explant, length of micro-shoots, developed callus weight (CW) and the quality index (QI) of plantlets. Calculation of statistical values such as R2 (coefficient of determination) related to the accuracy of ANN-GA models showed a considerably higher prediction accuracy for ANN models, i.e., micro-shoots number: R2 = 0.81, length of micro-shoots: R2 = 0.87, CW: R2 = 0.88, QI: R2 = 0.87. According to the results, among the input variables, BAP (19.3), KIN (9.64), and IBA (2.63) showed the highest values of variable sensitivity ratio for proliferation rate. The GA showed that media containing 1.02 mg/l BAP in combination with 0.098 mg/l IBA could lead to the optimal proliferation rate (10.53) for G × N15 rootstock. Another objective of the present study was to compare the performance of predicted and optimized cytokinin–auxin combination with the best optimized obtained concentrations of our other experiments. Considering three growth parameters (length of micro-shoots, micro-shoots number, and proliferation rate), the last treatment was found to be superior to the rest of treatments for G × N15 rootstock in vitro multiplication. Very little difference between the ANN predicted and experimental data confirmed high capability of ANN-GA method in predicting new optimized protocols for plant in vitro propagation. PMID:29163583

Ads' click-through rates predicting based on gated recurrent unit neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi

2018-05-01

In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated recurrent unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through rates(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit recurrent neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated recurrent unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.

Optimal control model predictions of system performance and attention allocation and their experimental validation in a display design study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannsen, G.; Govindaraj, T.

1980-01-01

The influence of different types of predictor displays in a longitudinal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) hover task is analyzed in a theoretical study. Several cases with differing amounts of predictive and rate information are compared. The optimal control model of the human operator is used to estimate human and system performance in terms of root-mean-square (rms) values and to compute optimized attention allocation. The only part of the model which is varied to predict these data is the observation matrix. Typical cases are selected for a subsequent experimental validation. The rms values as well as eye-movement data are recorded. The results agree favorably with those of the theoretical study in terms of relative differences. Better matching is achieved by revised model input data.

A new predictive model for continuous positive airway pressure in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Ebben, Matthew R; Narizhnaya, Mariya; Krieger, Ana C

2017-05-01

Numerous mathematical formulas have been developed to determine continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) without an in-laboratory titration study. Recent studies have shown that style of CPAP mask can affect the optimal pressure requirement. However, none of the current models take mask style into account. Therefore, the goal of this study was to develop new predictive models of CPAP that take into account the style of mask interface. Data from 200 subjects with attended CPAP titrations during overnight polysomnograms using nasal masks and 132 subjects using oronasal masks were randomized and split into either a model development or validation group. Predictive models were then created in each model development group and the accuracy of the models was then tested in the model validation groups. The correlation between our new oronasal model and laboratory determined optimal CPAP was significant, r = 0.61, p < 0.001. Our nasal formula was also significantly related to laboratory determined optimal CPAP, r = 0.35, p < 0.001. The oronasal model created in our study significantly outperformed the original CPAP predictive model developed by Miljeteig and Hoffstein, z = 1.99, p < 0.05. The predictive performance of our new nasal model did not differ significantly from Miljeteig and Hoffstein's original model, z = -0.16, p < 0.90. The best predictors for the nasal mask group were AHI, lowest SaO2, and neck size, whereas the top predictors in the oronasal group were AHI and lowest SaO2. Our data show that predictive models of CPAP that take into account mask style can significantly improve the formula's accuracy. Most of the past models likely focused on model development with nasal masks (mask style used for model development was not typically reported in previous investigations) and are not well suited for patients using an oronasal interface. Our new oronasal CPAP prediction equation produced significantly improved performance compared to the well-known Miljeteig and Hoffstein formula in patients titrated on CPAP with an oronasal mask and was also significantly related to laboratory determined optimal CPAP.

Selection of optimal sensors for predicting performance of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Lei; Jackson, Lisa

2016-10-01

In this paper, sensor selection algorithms are investigated based on a sensitivity analysis, and the capability of optimal sensors in predicting PEM fuel cell performance is also studied using test data. The fuel cell model is developed for generating the sensitivity matrix relating sensor measurements and fuel cell health parameters. From the sensitivity matrix, two sensor selection approaches, including the largest gap method, and exhaustive brute force searching technique, are applied to find the optimal sensors providing reliable predictions. Based on the results, a sensor selection approach considering both sensor sensitivity and noise resistance is proposed to find the optimal sensor set with minimum size. Furthermore, the performance of the optimal sensor set is studied to predict fuel cell performance using test data from a PEM fuel cell system. Results demonstrate that with optimal sensors, the performance of PEM fuel cell can be predicted with good quality.

A Robust Adaptive Autonomous Approach to Optimal Experimental Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Hairong

Experimentation is the fundamental tool of scientific inquiries to understand the laws governing the nature and human behaviors. Many complex real-world experimental scenarios, particularly in quest of prediction accuracy, often encounter difficulties to conduct experiments using an existing experimental procedure for the following two reasons. First, the existing experimental procedures require a parametric model to serve as the proxy of the latent data structure or data-generating mechanism at the beginning of an experiment. However, for those experimental scenarios of concern, a sound model is often unavailable before an experiment. Second, those experimental scenarios usually contain a large number of design variables, which potentially leads to a lengthy and costly data collection cycle. Incompetently, the existing experimental procedures are unable to optimize large-scale experiments so as to minimize the experimental length and cost. Facing the two challenges in those experimental scenarios, the aim of the present study is to develop a new experimental procedure that allows an experiment to be conducted without the assumption of a parametric model while still achieving satisfactory prediction, and performs optimization of experimental designs to improve the efficiency of an experiment. The new experimental procedure developed in the present study is named robust adaptive autonomous system (RAAS). RAAS is a procedure for sequential experiments composed of multiple experimental trials, which performs function estimation, variable selection, reverse prediction and design optimization on each trial. Directly addressing the challenges in those experimental scenarios of concern, function estimation and variable selection are performed by data-driven modeling methods to generate a predictive model from data collected during the course of an experiment, thus exempting the requirement of a parametric model at the beginning of an experiment; design optimization is performed to select experimental designs on the fly of an experiment based on their usefulness so that fewest designs are needed to reach useful inferential conclusions. Technically, function estimation is realized by Bayesian P-splines, variable selection is realized by Bayesian spike-and-slab prior, reverse prediction is realized by grid-search and design optimization is realized by the concepts of active learning. The present study demonstrated that RAAS achieves statistical robustness by making accurate predictions without the assumption of a parametric model serving as the proxy of latent data structure while the existing procedures can draw poor statistical inferences if a misspecified model is assumed; RAAS also achieves inferential efficiency by taking fewer designs to acquire useful statistical inferences than non-optimal procedures. Thus, RAAS is expected to be a principled solution to real-world experimental scenarios pursuing robust prediction and efficient experimentation.

Simultaneous optimization of biomolecular energy function on features from small molecules and macromolecules

PubMed Central

Park, Hahnbeom; Bradley, Philip; Greisen, Per; Liu, Yuan; Mulligan, Vikram Khipple; Kim, David E.; Baker, David; DiMaio, Frank

2017-01-01

Most biomolecular modeling energy functions for structure prediction, sequence design, and molecular docking, have been parameterized using existing macromolecular structural data; this contrasts molecular mechanics force fields which are largely optimized using small-molecule data. In this study, we describe an integrated method that enables optimization of a biomolecular modeling energy function simultaneously against small-molecule thermodynamic data and high-resolution macromolecular structural data. We use this approach to develop a next-generation Rosetta energy function that utilizes a new anisotropic implicit solvation model, and an improved electrostatics and Lennard-Jones model, illustrating how energy functions can be considerably improved in their ability to describe large-scale energy landscapes by incorporating both small-molecule and macromolecule data. The energy function improves performance in a wide range of protein structure prediction challenges, including monomeric structure prediction, protein-protein and protein-ligand docking, protein sequence design, and prediction of the free energy changes by mutation, while reasonably recapitulating small-molecule thermodynamic properties. PMID:27766851

A control-theory model for human decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

1971-01-01

A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

Model predictive and reallocation problem for CubeSat fault recovery and attitude control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franchi, Loris; Feruglio, Lorenzo; Mozzillo, Raffaele; Corpino, Sabrina

2018-01-01

In recent years, thanks to the increase of the know-how on machine-learning techniques and the advance of the computational capabilities of on-board processing, expensive computing algorithms, such as Model Predictive Control, have begun to spread in space applications even on small on-board processor. The paper presents an algorithm for an optimal fault recovery of a 3U CubeSat, developed in MathWorks Matlab & Simulink environment. This algorithm involves optimization techniques aiming at obtaining the optimal recovery solution, and involves a Model Predictive Control approach for the attitude control. The simulated system is a CubeSat in Low Earth Orbit: the attitude control is performed with three magnetic torquers and a single reaction wheel. The simulation neglects the errors in the attitude determination of the satellite, and focuses on the recovery approach and control method. The optimal recovery approach takes advantage of the properties of magnetic actuation, which gives the possibility of the redistribution of the control action when a fault occurs on a single magnetic torquer, even in absence of redundant actuators. In addition, the paper presents the results of the implementation of Model Predictive approach to control the attitude of the satellite.

Missile Guidance Law Based on Robust Model Predictive Control Using Neural-Network Optimization.

PubMed

Li, Zhijun; Xia, Yuanqing; Su, Chun-Yi; Deng, Jun; Fu, Jun; He, Wei

2015-08-01

In this brief, the utilization of robust model-based predictive control is investigated for the problem of missile interception. Treating the target acceleration as a bounded disturbance, novel guidance law using model predictive control is developed by incorporating missile inside constraints. The combined model predictive approach could be transformed as a constrained quadratic programming (QP) problem, which may be solved using a linear variational inequality-based primal-dual neural network over a finite receding horizon. Online solutions to multiple parametric QP problems are used so that constrained optimal control decisions can be made in real time. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed guidance control law for missile interception.

Modeling and optimization of trihalomethanes formation potential of surface water (a drinking water source) using Box-Behnken design.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Rai, Premanjali; Pandey, Priyanka; Sinha, Sarita

2012-01-01

The present research aims to investigate the individual and interactive effects of chlorine dose/dissolved organic carbon ratio, pH, temperature, bromide concentration, and reaction time on trihalomethanes (THMs) formation in surface water (a drinking water source) during disinfection by chlorination in a prototype laboratory-scale simulation and to develop a model for the prediction and optimization of THMs levels in chlorinated water for their effective control. A five-factor Box-Behnken experimental design combined with response surface and optimization modeling was used for predicting the THMs levels in chlorinated water. The adequacy of the selected model and statistical significance of the regression coefficients, independent variables, and their interactions were tested by the analysis of variance and t test statistics. The THMs levels predicted by the model were very close to the experimental values (R(2) = 0.95). Optimization modeling predicted maximum (192 μg/l) TMHs formation (highest risk) level in water during chlorination was very close to the experimental value (186.8 ± 1.72 μg/l) determined in laboratory experiments. The pH of water followed by reaction time and temperature were the most significant factors that affect the THMs formation during chlorination. The developed model can be used to determine the optimum characteristics of raw water and chlorination conditions for maintaining the THMs levels within the safe limit.

Optimizing heat shock protein expression induced by prostate cancer laser therapy through predictive computational models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rylander, Marissa N.; Feng, Yusheng; Zhang, Yongjie; Bass, Jon; Stafford, Roger J.; Hazle, John D.; Diller, Kenneth R.

2006-07-01

Thermal therapy efficacy can be diminished due to heat shock protein (HSP) induction in regions of a tumor where temperatures are insufficient to coagulate proteins. HSP expression enhances tumor cell viability and imparts resistance to chemotherapy and radiation treatments, which are generally employed in conjunction with hyperthermia. Therefore, an understanding of the thermally induced HSP expression within the targeted tumor must be incorporated into the treatment plan to optimize the thermal dose delivery and permit prediction of the overall tissue response. A treatment planning computational model capable of predicting the temperature, HSP27 and HSP70 expression, and damage fraction distributions associated with laser heating in healthy prostate tissue and tumors is presented. Measured thermally induced HSP27 and HSP70 expression kinetics and injury data for normal and cancerous prostate cells and prostate tumors are employed to create the first HSP expression predictive model and formulate an Arrhenius damage model. The correlation coefficients between measured and model predicted temperature, HSP27, and HSP70 were 0.98, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the model. Utilization of the treatment planning model in the design of prostate cancer thermal therapies can enable optimization of the treatment outcome by controlling HSP expression and injury.

Intelligent sensing sensory quality of Chinese rice wine using near infrared spectroscopy and nonlinear tools.

PubMed

Ouyang, Qin; Chen, Quansheng; Zhao, Jiewen

2016-02-05

The approach presented herein reports the application of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, in contrast with human sensory panel, as a tool for estimating Chinese rice wine quality; concretely, to achieve the prediction of the overall sensory scores assigned by the trained sensory panel. Back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) combined with adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) algorithm, namely BP-AdaBoost, as a novel nonlinear algorithm, was proposed in modeling. First, the optimal spectra intervals were selected by synergy interval partial least square (Si-PLS). Then, BP-AdaBoost model based on the optimal spectra intervals was established, called Si-BP-AdaBoost model. These models were optimized by cross validation, and the performance of each final model was evaluated according to correlation coefficient (Rp) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) in prediction set. Si-BP-AdaBoost showed excellent performance in comparison with other models. The best Si-BP-AdaBoost model was achieved with Rp=0.9180 and RMSEP=2.23 in the prediction set. It was concluded that NIR spectroscopy combined with Si-BP-AdaBoost was an appropriate method for the prediction of the sensory quality in Chinese rice wine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

2014-05-01

Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration values. The main advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only upper half of the breakthrough curve and is capable of predicting source parameters when the lag time is not known. Linking of ANN model with proposed optimization model reduces the dimensionality of the decision variables of the optimization model by one and hence complexity of optimization model is reduced. The results show that our proposed linked ANN-Optimization model is able to predict the source parameters for the error-free data accurately. The proposed model was run several times to obtain the mean, standard deviation and interval estimate of the predicted parameters for observations with random measurement errors. It was observed that mean values as predicted by the model were quite close to the exact values. An increasing trend was observed in the standard deviation of the predicted values with increasing level of measurement error. The model appears to be robust and may be efficiently utilized to solve the inverse pollution source identification problem.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

ConvAn: a convergence analyzing tool for optimization of biochemical networks.

PubMed

Kostromins, Andrejs; Mozga, Ivars; Stalidzans, Egils

2012-01-01

Dynamic models of biochemical networks usually are described as a system of nonlinear differential equations. In case of optimization of models for purpose of parameter estimation or design of new properties mainly numerical methods are used. That causes problems of optimization predictability as most of numerical optimization methods have stochastic properties and the convergence of the objective function to the global optimum is hardly predictable. Determination of suitable optimization method and necessary duration of optimization becomes critical in case of evaluation of high number of combinations of adjustable parameters or in case of large dynamic models. This task is complex due to variety of optimization methods, software tools and nonlinearity features of models in different parameter spaces. A software tool ConvAn is developed to analyze statistical properties of convergence dynamics for optimization runs with particular optimization method, model, software tool, set of optimization method parameters and number of adjustable parameters of the model. The convergence curves can be normalized automatically to enable comparison of different methods and models in the same scale. By the help of the biochemistry adapted graphical user interface of ConvAn it is possible to compare different optimization methods in terms of ability to find the global optima or values close to that as well as the necessary computational time to reach them. It is possible to estimate the optimization performance for different number of adjustable parameters. The functionality of ConvAn enables statistical assessment of necessary optimization time depending on the necessary optimization accuracy. Optimization methods, which are not suitable for a particular optimization task, can be rejected if they have poor repeatability or convergence properties. The software ConvAn is freely available on www.biosystems.lv/convan. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Passenger Flow Forecasting Research for Airport Terminal Based on SARIMA Time Series Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ziyu; Bi, Jun; Li, Zhiyin

2017-12-01

Based on the data of practical operating of Kunming Changshui International Airport during2016, this paper proposes Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict the passenger flow. This article not only considers the non-stationary and autocorrelation of the sequence, but also considers the daily periodicity of the sequence. The prediction results can accurately describe the change trend of airport passenger flow and provide scientific decision support for the optimal allocation of airport resources and optimization of departure process. The result shows that this model is applicable to the short-term prediction of airport terminal departure passenger traffic and the average error ranges from 1% to 3%. The difference between the predicted and the true values of passenger traffic flow is quite small, which indicates that the model has fairly good passenger traffic flow prediction ability.

Spontaneous cortical activity reveals hallmarks of an optimal internal model of the environment.

PubMed

Berkes, Pietro; Orbán, Gergo; Lengyel, Máté; Fiser, József

2011-01-07

The brain maintains internal models of its environment to interpret sensory inputs and to prepare actions. Although behavioral studies have demonstrated that these internal models are optimally adapted to the statistics of the environment, the neural underpinning of this adaptation is unknown. Using a Bayesian model of sensory cortical processing, we related stimulus-evoked and spontaneous neural activities to inferences and prior expectations in an internal model and predicted that they should match if the model is statistically optimal. To test this prediction, we analyzed visual cortical activity of awake ferrets during development. Similarity between spontaneous and evoked activities increased with age and was specific to responses evoked by natural scenes. This demonstrates the progressive adaptation of internal models to the statistics of natural stimuli at the neural level.

Implementation of Chaotic Gaussian Particle Swarm Optimization for Optimize Learning-to-Rank Software Defect Prediction Model Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchari, M. A.; Mardiyanto, S.; Hendradjaya, B.

2018-03-01

Finding the existence of software defect as early as possible is the purpose of research about software defect prediction. Software defect prediction activity is required to not only state the existence of defects, but also to be able to give a list of priorities which modules require a more intensive test. Therefore, the allocation of test resources can be managed efficiently. Learning to rank is one of the approach that can provide defect module ranking data for the purposes of software testing. In this study, we propose a meta-heuristic chaotic Gaussian particle swarm optimization to improve the accuracy of learning to rank software defect prediction approach. We have used 11 public benchmark data sets as experimental data. Our overall results has demonstrated that the prediction models construct using Chaotic Gaussian Particle Swarm Optimization gets better accuracy on 5 data sets, ties in 5 data sets and gets worse in 1 data sets. Thus, we conclude that the application of Chaotic Gaussian Particle Swarm Optimization in Learning-to-Rank approach can improve the accuracy of the defect module ranking in data sets that have high-dimensional features.

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Guilong

2001-01-01

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Research on Fault Rate Prediction Method of T/R Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xiaodong; Yang, Jiangping; Bi, Zengjun; Zhang, Yu

2017-07-01

T/R component is an important part of the large phased array radar antenna array, because of its large numbers, high fault rate, it has important significance for fault prediction. Aiming at the problems of traditional grey model GM(1,1) in practical operation, the discrete grey model is established based on the original model in this paper, and the optimization factor is introduced to optimize the background value, and the linear form of the prediction model is added, the improved discrete grey model of linear regression is proposed, finally, an example is simulated and compared with other models. The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and the solution is simple and the application scope is more extensive.

Grey-Markov prediction model based on background value optimization and central-point triangular whitenization weight function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jing; Dang, Yaoguo; Li, Bingjun

2018-01-01

Grey-Markov forecasting model is a combination of grey prediction model and Markov chain which show obvious optimization effects for data sequences with characteristics of non-stationary and volatility. However, the state division process in traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model is mostly based on subjective real numbers that immediately affects the accuracy of forecasting values. To seek the solution, this paper introduces the central-point triangular whitenization weight function in state division to calculate possibilities of research values in each state which reflect preference degrees in different states in an objective way. On the other hand, background value optimization is applied in the traditional grey model to generate better fitting data. By this means, the improved Grey-Markov forecasting model is built. Finally, taking the grain production in Henan Province as an example, it verifies this model's validity by comparing with GM(1,1) based on background value optimization and the traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model.

Multi-objective optimization to predict muscle tensions in a pinch function using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensghaier, Amani; Romdhane, Lotfi; Benouezdou, Fethi

2012-03-01

This work is focused on the determination of the thumb and the index finger muscle tensions in a tip pinch task. A biomechanical model of the musculoskeletal system of the thumb and the index finger is developed. Due to the assumptions made in carrying out the biomechanical model, the formulated force analysis problem is indeterminate leading to an infinite number of solutions. Thus, constrained single and multi-objective optimization methodologies are used in order to explore the muscular redundancy and to predict optimal muscle tension distributions. Various models are investigated using the optimization process. The basic criteria to minimize are the sum of the muscle stresses, the sum of individual muscle tensions and the maximum muscle stress. The multi-objective optimization is solved using a Pareto genetic algorithm to obtain non-dominated solutions, defined as the set of optimal distributions of muscle tensions. The results show the advantage of the multi-objective formulation over the single objective one. The obtained solutions are compared to those available in the literature demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in the analysis of the fingers musculoskeletal systems when predicting muscle tensions.

A Framework for the Optimization of Discrete-Event Simulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, B. D.; Unal, R.; White, N. H.; Morris, W. D.

1996-01-01

With the growing use of computer modeling and simulation, in all aspects of engineering, the scope of traditional optimization has to be extended to include simulation models. Some unique aspects have to be addressed while optimizing via stochastic simulation models. The optimization procedure has to explicitly account for the randomness inherent in the stochastic measures predicted by the model. This paper outlines a general purpose framework for optimization of terminating discrete-event simulation models. The methodology combines a chance constraint approach for problem formulation, together with standard statistical estimation and analyses techniques. The applicability of the optimization framework is illustrated by minimizing the operation and support resources of a launch vehicle, through a simulation model.

Modeling and optimization of fermentation variables for enhanced production of lactase by isolated Bacillus subtilis strain VUVD001 using artificial neural networking and response surface methodology.

PubMed

Venkateswarulu, T C; Prabhakar, K Vidya; Kumar, R Bharath; Krupanidhi, S

2017-07-01

Modeling and optimization were performed to enhance production of lactase through submerged fermentation by Bacillus subtilis VUVD001 using artificial neural networks (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM). The effect of process parameters namely temperature (°C), pH, and incubation time (h) and their combinational interactions on production was studied in shake flask culture by Box-Behnken design. The model was validated by conducting an experiment at optimized process variables which gave the maximum lactase activity of 91.32 U/ml. Compared to traditional activity, 3.48-folds improved production was obtained after RSM optimization. This study clearly shows that both RSM and ANN models provided desired predictions. However, compared with RSM (R 2  = 0.9496), the ANN model (R 2  = 0.99456) gave a better prediction for the production of lactase.

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Gui-Long

2001-01-01

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Moving on from rigid plant stoichiometry: Optimal canopy nitrogen allocation within a novel land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Kern, M.; Engel, J.; Zaehle, S.

2016-12-01

Despite recent advances in global vegetation models, we still lack the capacity to predict observed vegetation responses to experimental environmental changes such as elevated CO2, increased temperature or nutrient additions. In particular for elevated CO2 (FACE) experiments, studies have shown that this is related in part to the models' inability to represent plastic changes in nutrient use and biomass allocation. We present a newly developed vegetation model which aims to overcome these problems by including optimality processes to describe nitrogen (N) and carbon allocation within the plant. We represent nitrogen allocation to the canopy and within the canopy between photosynthetic components as an optimal processes which aims to maximize net primary production (NPP) of the plant. We also represent biomass investment into aboveground and belowground components (root nitrogen uptake , biological N fixation) as an optimal process that maximizes plant growth by considering plant carbon and nutrient demands as well as acquisition costs. The model can now represent plastic changes in canopy N content and chlorophyll and Rubisco concentrations as well as in belowground allocation both on seasonal and inter-annual time scales. Specifically, we show that under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry would predicts a quick onset of N limitation. In general, our model aims to include physiologically-based plant processes and avoid arbitrarily imposed parameters and thresholds in order to improve our predictive capability of vegetation responses under changing environmental conditions.

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model

PubMed Central

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something about water security of roughly one-third of China’s population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM (1,1) (DWSGM (1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of “r” by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM (1,1) model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM (1,1) grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system. PMID:29295517

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model.

PubMed

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-12-23

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China's population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of "r" by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system.

Predicting stomatal responses to the environment from the optimization of photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost.

PubMed

Sperry, John S; Venturas, Martin D; Anderegg, William R L; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Mackay, D Scott; Wang, Yujie; Love, David M

2017-06-01

Stomatal regulation presumably evolved to optimize CO 2 for H 2 O exchange in response to changing conditions. If the optimization criterion can be readily measured or calculated, then stomatal responses can be efficiently modelled without recourse to empirical models or underlying mechanism. Previous efforts have been challenged by the lack of a transparent index for the cost of losing water. Yet it is accepted that stomata control water loss to avoid excessive loss of hydraulic conductance from cavitation and soil drying. Proximity to hydraulic failure and desiccation can represent the cost of water loss. If at any given instant, the stomatal aperture adjusts to maximize the instantaneous difference between photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost, then a model can predict the trajectory of stomatal responses to changes in environment across time. Results of this optimization model are consistent with the widely used Ball-Berry-Leuning empirical model (r 2  > 0.99) across a wide range of vapour pressure deficits and ambient CO 2 concentrations for wet soil. The advantage of the optimization approach is the absence of empirical coefficients, applicability to dry as well as wet soil and prediction of plant hydraulic status along with gas exchange. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Discrimination and prediction of the origin of Chinese and Korean soybeans using Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FT-IR) with multivariate statistical analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Byeong-Ju; Zhou, Yaoyao; Lee, Jae Soung; Shin, Byeung Kon; Seo, Jeong-Ah; Lee, Doyup; Kim, Young-Suk

2018-01-01

The ability to determine the origin of soybeans is an important issue following the inclusion of this information in the labeling of agricultural food products becoming mandatory in South Korea in 2017. This study was carried out to construct a prediction model for discriminating Chinese and Korean soybeans using Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis. The optimal prediction models for discriminating soybean samples were obtained by selecting appropriate scaling methods, normalization methods, variable influence on projection (VIP) cutoff values, and wave-number regions. The factors for constructing the optimal partial-least-squares regression (PLSR) prediction model were using second derivatives, vector normalization, unit variance scaling, and the 4000–400 cm–1 region (excluding water vapor and carbon dioxide). The PLSR model for discriminating Chinese and Korean soybean samples had the best predictability when a VIP cutoff value was not applied. When Chinese soybean samples were identified, a PLSR model that has the lowest root-mean-square error of the prediction value was obtained using a VIP cutoff value of 1.5. The optimal PLSR prediction model for discriminating Korean soybean samples was also obtained using a VIP cutoff value of 1.5. This is the first study that has combined FT-IR spectroscopy with normalization methods, VIP cutoff values, and selected wave-number regions for discriminating Chinese and Korean soybeans. PMID:29689113

Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2013-05-01

Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived prediction interval for a selected hydrograph in the validation data set is presented in Fig 1. It is noted that most of the observed flows lie within the constructed prediction interval, and therefore provides information about the uncertainty of the prediction. One specific advantage of the method is that when ensemble mean value is considered as a forecast, the peak flows are predicted with improved accuracy by this method compared to traditional single point forecasted ANNs. Fig. 1 Prediction Interval for selected hydrograph

Optimality models in the age of experimental evolution and genomics.

PubMed

Bull, J J; Wang, I-N

2010-09-01

Optimality models have been used to predict evolution of many properties of organisms. They typically neglect genetic details, whether by necessity or design. This omission is a common source of criticism, and although this limitation of optimality is widely acknowledged, it has mostly been defended rather than evaluated for its impact. Experimental adaptation of model organisms provides a new arena for testing optimality models and for simultaneously integrating genetics. First, an experimental context with a well-researched organism allows dissection of the evolutionary process to identify causes of model failure--whether the model is wrong about genetics or selection. Second, optimality models provide a meaningful context for the process and mechanics of evolution, and thus may be used to elicit realistic genetic bases of adaptation--an especially useful augmentation to well-researched genetic systems. A few studies of microbes have begun to pioneer this new direction. Incompatibility between the assumed and actual genetics has been demonstrated to be the cause of model failure in some cases. More interestingly, evolution at the phenotypic level has sometimes matched prediction even though the adaptive mutations defy mechanisms established by decades of classic genetic studies. Integration of experimental evolutionary tests with genetics heralds a new wave for optimality models and their extensions that does not merely emphasize the forces driving evolution.

Neuromusculoskeletal Model Calibration Significantly Affects Predicted Knee Contact Forces for Walking

PubMed Central

Serrancolí, Gil; Kinney, Allison L.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Font-Llagunes, Josep M.

2016-01-01

Though walking impairments are prevalent in society, clinical treatments are often ineffective at restoring lost function. For this reason, researchers have begun to explore the use of patient-specific computational walking models to develop more effective treatments. However, the accuracy with which models can predict internal body forces in muscles and across joints depends on how well relevant model parameter values can be calibrated for the patient. This study investigated how knowledge of internal knee contact forces affects calibration of neuromusculoskeletal model parameter values and subsequent prediction of internal knee contact and leg muscle forces during walking. Model calibration was performed using a novel two-level optimization procedure applied to six normal walking trials from the Fourth Grand Challenge Competition to Predict In Vivo Knee Loads. The outer-level optimization adjusted time-invariant model parameter values to minimize passive muscle forces, reserve actuator moments, and model parameter value changes with (Approach A) and without (Approach B) tracking of experimental knee contact forces. Using the current guess for model parameter values but no knee contact force information, the inner-level optimization predicted time-varying muscle activations that were close to experimental muscle synergy patterns and consistent with the experimental inverse dynamic loads (both approaches). For all the six gait trials, Approach A predicted knee contact forces with high accuracy for both compartments (average correlation coefficient r = 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 52.6 N medial; average r = 0.95 and RMSE = 56.6 N lateral). In contrast, Approach B overpredicted contact force magnitude for both compartments (average RMSE = 323 N medial and 348 N lateral) and poorly matched contact force shape for the lateral compartment (average r = 0.90 medial and −0.10 lateral). Approach B had statistically higher lateral muscle forces and lateral optimal muscle fiber lengths but lower medial, central, and lateral normalized muscle fiber lengths compared to Approach A. These findings suggest that poorly calibrated model parameter values may be a major factor limiting the ability of neuromusculoskeletal models to predict knee contact and leg muscle forces accurately for walking. PMID:27210105

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB.

PubMed

Lee, Leng-Feng; Umberger, Brian R

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1-2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility.

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB

PubMed Central

Lee, Leng-Feng

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1–2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility. PMID:26835184

OPTIMIZING MODEL PERFORMANCE: VARIABLE SIZE RESOLUTION IN CLOUD CHEMISTRY MODELING. (R826371C005)

EPA Science Inventory

Under many conditions size-resolved aqueous-phase chemistry models predict higher sulfate production rates than comparable bulk aqueous-phase models. However, there are special circumstances under which bulk and size-resolved models offer similar predictions. These special con...

Bayesian Optimization for Neuroimaging Pre-processing in Brain Age Classification and Prediction

PubMed Central

Lancaster, Jenessa; Lorenz, Romy; Leech, Rob; Cole, James H.

2018-01-01

Neuroimaging-based age prediction using machine learning is proposed as a biomarker of brain aging, relating to cognitive performance, health outcomes and progression of neurodegenerative disease. However, even leading age-prediction algorithms contain measurement error, motivating efforts to improve experimental pipelines. T1-weighted MRI is commonly used for age prediction, and the pre-processing of these scans involves normalization to a common template and resampling to a common voxel size, followed by spatial smoothing. Resampling parameters are often selected arbitrarily. Here, we sought to improve brain-age prediction accuracy by optimizing resampling parameters using Bayesian optimization. Using data on N = 2003 healthy individuals (aged 16–90 years) we trained support vector machines to (i) distinguish between young (<22 years) and old (>50 years) brains (classification) and (ii) predict chronological age (regression). We also evaluated generalisability of the age-regression model to an independent dataset (CamCAN, N = 648, aged 18–88 years). Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal voxel size and smoothing kernel size for each task. This procedure adaptively samples the parameter space to evaluate accuracy across a range of possible parameters, using independent sub-samples to iteratively assess different parameter combinations to arrive at optimal values. When distinguishing between young and old brains a classification accuracy of 88.1% was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 11.5 mm3, smoothing kernel = 2.3 mm). For predicting chronological age, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.08 years was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 3.73 mm3, smoothing kernel = 3.68 mm). This was compared to performance using default values of 1.5 mm3 and 4mm respectively, resulting in MAE = 5.48 years, though this 7.3% improvement was not statistically significant. When assessing generalisability, best performance was achieved when applying the entire Bayesian optimization framework to the new dataset, out-performing the parameters optimized for the initial training dataset. Our study outlines the proof-of-principle that neuroimaging models for brain-age prediction can use Bayesian optimization to derive case-specific pre-processing parameters. Our results suggest that different pre-processing parameters are selected when optimization is conducted in specific contexts. This potentially motivates use of optimization techniques at many different points during the experimental process, which may improve statistical sensitivity and reduce opportunities for experimenter-led bias. PMID:29483870

Are V1 Simple Cells Optimized for Visual Occlusions? A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Bornschein, Jörg; Henniges, Marc; Lücke, Jörg

2013-01-01

Simple cells in primary visual cortex were famously found to respond to low-level image components such as edges. Sparse coding and independent component analysis (ICA) emerged as the standard computational models for simple cell coding because they linked their receptive fields to the statistics of visual stimuli. However, a salient feature of image statistics, occlusions of image components, is not considered by these models. Here we ask if occlusions have an effect on the predicted shapes of simple cell receptive fields. We use a comparative approach to answer this question and investigate two models for simple cells: a standard linear model and an occlusive model. For both models we simultaneously estimate optimal receptive fields, sparsity and stimulus noise. The two models are identical except for their component superposition assumption. We find the image encoding and receptive fields predicted by the models to differ significantly. While both models predict many Gabor-like fields, the occlusive model predicts a much sparser encoding and high percentages of ‘globular’ receptive fields. This relatively new center-surround type of simple cell response is observed since reverse correlation is used in experimental studies. While high percentages of ‘globular’ fields can be obtained using specific choices of sparsity and overcompleteness in linear sparse coding, no or only low proportions are reported in the vast majority of studies on linear models (including all ICA models). Likewise, for the here investigated linear model and optimal sparsity, only low proportions of ‘globular’ fields are observed. In comparison, the occlusive model robustly infers high proportions and can match the experimentally observed high proportions of ‘globular’ fields well. Our computational study, therefore, suggests that ‘globular’ fields may be evidence for an optimal encoding of visual occlusions in primary visual cortex. PMID:23754938

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri A; Shi, Ying; Christensen, Dane T

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modelingmore » approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.« less

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raszmann, Emma; Baker, Kyri; Shi, Ying

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modelingmore » approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.« less

Using Machine Learning in Adversarial Environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren Leon Davis

Intrusion/anomaly detection systems are among the first lines of cyber defense. Commonly, they either use signatures or machine learning (ML) to identify threats, but fail to account for sophisticated attackers trying to circumvent them. We propose to embed machine learning within a game theoretic framework that performs adversarial modeling, develops methods for optimizing operational response based on ML, and integrates the resulting optimization codebase into the existing ML infrastructure developed by the Hybrid LDRD. Our approach addresses three key shortcomings of ML in adversarial settings: 1) resulting classifiers are typically deterministic and, therefore, easy to reverse engineer; 2) ML approachesmore » only address the prediction problem, but do not prescribe how one should operationalize predictions, nor account for operational costs and constraints; and 3) ML approaches do not model attackers’ response and can be circumvented by sophisticated adversaries. The principal novelty of our approach is to construct an optimization framework that blends ML, operational considerations, and a model predicting attackers reaction, with the goal of computing optimal moving target defense. One important challenge is to construct a realistic model of an adversary that is tractable, yet realistic. We aim to advance the science of attacker modeling by considering game-theoretic methods, and by engaging experimental subjects with red teaming experience in trying to actively circumvent an intrusion detection system, and learning a predictive model of such circumvention activities. In addition, we will generate metrics to test that a particular model of an adversary is consistent with available data.« less

Sensor fusion display evaluation using information integration models in enhanced/synthetic vision applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1993-01-01

Based on existing integration models in the psychological literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess sensor fusion displays as might be implemented in an enhanced/synthetic vision system. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The pilot's performance with the sensor fusion image is compared to models' predictions based on the pilot's performance when viewing the original component sensor images prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays, clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference; better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal level compared to model predictions; optimal performance compared to model predictions; or, super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays.

Nonlinear model predictive control of a wave energy converter based on differential flatness parameterisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guang

2017-01-01

This paper presents a fast constrained optimization approach, which is tailored for nonlinear model predictive control of wave energy converters (WEC). The advantage of this approach relies on its exploitation of the differential flatness of the WEC model. This can reduce the dimension of the resulting nonlinear programming problem (NLP) derived from the continuous constrained optimal control of WEC using pseudospectral method. The alleviation of computational burden using this approach helps to promote an economic implementation of nonlinear model predictive control strategy for WEC control problems. The method is applicable to nonlinear WEC models, nonconvex objective functions and nonlinear constraints, which are commonly encountered in WEC control problems. Numerical simulations demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Integrating prediction, provenance, and optimization into high energy workflows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schram, M.; Bansal, V.; Friese, R. D.

We propose a novel approach for efficient execution of workflows on distributed resources. The key components of this framework include: performance modeling to quantitatively predict workflow component behavior; optimization-based scheduling such as choosing an optimal subset of resources to meet demand and assignment of tasks to resources; distributed I/O optimizations such as prefetching; and provenance methods for collecting performance data. In preliminary results, these techniques improve throughput on a small Belle II workflow by 20%.

Artificial Intelligence versus Statistical Modeling and Optimization of Cholesterol Oxidase Production by using Streptomyces Sp.

PubMed Central

Niwas, Ram; Osama, Khwaja; Khan, Saif; Haque, Shafiul; Tripathi, C. K. M.; Mishra, B. N.

2015-01-01

Cholesterol oxidase (COD) is a bi-functional FAD-containing oxidoreductase which catalyzes the oxidation of cholesterol into 4-cholesten-3-one. The wider biological functions and clinical applications of COD have urged the screening, isolation and characterization of newer microbes from diverse habitats as a source of COD and optimization and over-production of COD for various uses. The practicability of statistical/ artificial intelligence techniques, such as response surface methodology (RSM), artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) have been tested to optimize the medium composition for the production of COD from novel strain Streptomyces sp. NCIM 5500. All experiments were performed according to the five factor central composite design (CCD) and the generated data was analysed using RSM and ANN. GA was employed to optimize the models generated by RSM and ANN. Based upon the predicted COD concentration, the model developed with ANN was found to be superior to the model developed with RSM. The RSM-GA approach predicted maximum of 6.283 U/mL COD production, whereas the ANN-GA approach predicted a maximum of 9.93 U/mL COD concentration. The optimum concentrations of the medium variables predicted through ANN-GA approach were: 1.431 g/50 mL soybean, 1.389 g/50 mL maltose, 0.029 g/50 mL MgSO4, 0.45 g/50 mL NaCl and 2.235 ml/50 mL glycerol. The experimental COD concentration was concurrent with the GA predicted yield and led to 9.75 U/mL COD production, which was nearly two times higher than the yield (4.2 U/mL) obtained with the un-optimized medium. This is the very first time we are reporting the statistical versus artificial intelligence based modeling and optimization of COD production by Streptomyces sp. NCIM 5500. PMID:26368924

Artificial Intelligence versus Statistical Modeling and Optimization of Cholesterol Oxidase Production by using Streptomyces Sp.

PubMed

Pathak, Lakshmi; Singh, Vineeta; Niwas, Ram; Osama, Khwaja; Khan, Saif; Haque, Shafiul; Tripathi, C K M; Mishra, B N

2015-01-01

Cholesterol oxidase (COD) is a bi-functional FAD-containing oxidoreductase which catalyzes the oxidation of cholesterol into 4-cholesten-3-one. The wider biological functions and clinical applications of COD have urged the screening, isolation and characterization of newer microbes from diverse habitats as a source of COD and optimization and over-production of COD for various uses. The practicability of statistical/ artificial intelligence techniques, such as response surface methodology (RSM), artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) have been tested to optimize the medium composition for the production of COD from novel strain Streptomyces sp. NCIM 5500. All experiments were performed according to the five factor central composite design (CCD) and the generated data was analysed using RSM and ANN. GA was employed to optimize the models generated by RSM and ANN. Based upon the predicted COD concentration, the model developed with ANN was found to be superior to the model developed with RSM. The RSM-GA approach predicted maximum of 6.283 U/mL COD production, whereas the ANN-GA approach predicted a maximum of 9.93 U/mL COD concentration. The optimum concentrations of the medium variables predicted through ANN-GA approach were: 1.431 g/50 mL soybean, 1.389 g/50 mL maltose, 0.029 g/50 mL MgSO4, 0.45 g/50 mL NaCl and 2.235 ml/50 mL glycerol. The experimental COD concentration was concurrent with the GA predicted yield and led to 9.75 U/mL COD production, which was nearly two times higher than the yield (4.2 U/mL) obtained with the un-optimized medium. This is the very first time we are reporting the statistical versus artificial intelligence based modeling and optimization of COD production by Streptomyces sp. NCIM 5500.

An improved predictive functional control method with application to PMSM systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shihua; Liu, Huixian; Fu, Wenshu

2017-01-01

In common design of prediction model-based control method, usually disturbances are not considered in the prediction model as well as the control design. For the control systems with large amplitude or strong disturbances, it is difficult to precisely predict the future outputs according to the conventional prediction model, and thus the desired optimal closed-loop performance will be degraded to some extent. To this end, an improved predictive functional control (PFC) method is developed in this paper by embedding disturbance information into the system model. Here, a composite prediction model is thus obtained by embedding the estimated value of disturbances, where disturbance observer (DOB) is employed to estimate the lumped disturbances. So the influence of disturbances on system is taken into account in optimisation procedure. Finally, considering the speed control problem for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) servo system, a control scheme based on the improved PFC method is designed to ensure an optimal closed-loop performance even in the presence of disturbances. Simulation and experimental results based on a hardware platform are provided to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1982-01-01

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

Coupling Matched Molecular Pairs with Machine Learning for Virtual Compound Optimization.

PubMed

Turk, Samo; Merget, Benjamin; Rippmann, Friedrich; Fulle, Simone

2017-12-26

Matched molecular pair (MMP) analyses are widely used in compound optimization projects to gain insights into structure-activity relationships (SAR). The analysis is traditionally done via statistical methods but can also be employed together with machine learning (ML) approaches to extrapolate to novel compounds. The here introduced MMP/ML method combines a fragment-based MMP implementation with different machine learning methods to obtain automated SAR decomposition and prediction. To test the prediction capabilities and model transferability, two different compound optimization scenarios were designed: (1) "new fragments" which occurs when exploring new fragments for a defined compound series and (2) "new static core and transformations" which resembles for instance the identification of a new compound series. Very good results were achieved by all employed machine learning methods especially for the new fragments case, but overall deep neural network models performed best, allowing reliable predictions also for the new static core and transformations scenario, where comprehensive SAR knowledge of the compound series is missing. Furthermore, we show that models trained on all available data have a higher generalizability compared to models trained on focused series and can extend beyond chemical space covered in the training data. Thus, coupling MMP with deep neural networks provides a promising approach to make high quality predictions on various data sets and in different compound optimization scenarios.

Using an optimal CC-PLSR-RBFNN model and NIR spectroscopy for the starch content determination in corn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Hao; Lu, Jiangang

2018-05-01

Corn starch is an important material which has been traditionally used in the fields of food and chemical industry. In order to enhance the rapidness and reliability of the determination for starch content in corn, a methodology is proposed in this work, using an optimal CC-PLSR-RBFNN calibration model and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. The proposed model was developed based on the optimal selection of crucial parameters and the combination of correlation coefficient method (CC), partial least squares regression (PLSR) and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). To test the performance of the model, a standard NIR spectroscopy data set was introduced, containing spectral information and chemical reference measurements of 80 corn samples. For comparison, several other models based on the identical data set were also briefly discussed. In this process, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) and coefficient of determination (Rp2) in the prediction set were used to make evaluations. As a result, the proposed model presented the best predictive performance with the smallest RMSEP (0.0497%) and the highest Rp2 (0.9968). Therefore, the proposed method combining NIR spectroscopy with the optimal CC-PLSR-RBFNN model can be helpful to determine starch content in corn.

Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

PubMed

Gomes, Anna; van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J

2017-01-01

Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid potential underdosing of gentamicin in endocarditis patients.

Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models

PubMed Central

van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.

2017-01-01

Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid potential underdosing of gentamicin in endocarditis patients. PMID:28475651

Correlations in state space can cause sub-optimal adaptation of optimal feedback control models.

PubMed

Aprasoff, Jonathan; Donchin, Opher

2012-04-01

Control of our movements is apparently facilitated by an adaptive internal model in the cerebellum. It was long thought that this internal model implemented an adaptive inverse model and generated motor commands, but recently many reject that idea in favor of a forward model hypothesis. In theory, the forward model predicts upcoming state during reaching movements so the motor cortex can generate appropriate motor commands. Recent computational models of this process rely on the optimal feedback control (OFC) framework of control theory. OFC is a powerful tool for describing motor control, it does not describe adaptation. Some assume that adaptation of the forward model alone could explain motor adaptation, but this is widely understood to be overly simplistic. However, an adaptive optimal controller is difficult to implement. A reasonable alternative is to allow forward model adaptation to 're-tune' the controller. Our simulations show that, as expected, forward model adaptation alone does not produce optimal trajectories during reaching movements perturbed by force fields. However, they also show that re-optimizing the controller from the forward model can be sub-optimal. This is because, in a system with state correlations or redundancies, accurate prediction requires different information than optimal control. We find that adding noise to the movements that matches noise found in human data is enough to overcome this problem. However, since the state space for control of real movements is far more complex than in our simple simulations, the effects of correlations on re-adaptation of the controller from the forward model cannot be overlooked.

A viscoelastic model for the prediction of transcranial ultrasound propagation: application for the estimation of shear acoustic properties in the human skull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pichardo, Samuel; Moreno-Hernández, Carlos; Drainville, Robert Andrew; Sin, Vivian; Curiel, Laura; Hynynen, Kullervo

2017-09-01

A better understanding of ultrasound transmission through the human skull is fundamental to develop optimal imaging and therapeutic applications. In this study, we present global attenuation values and functions that correlate apparent density calculated from computed tomography scans to shear speed of sound. For this purpose, we used a model for sound propagation based on the viscoelastic wave equation (VWE) assuming isotropic conditions. The model was validated using a series of measurements with plates of different plastic materials and angles of incidence of 0°, 15° and 50°. The optimal functions for transcranial ultrasound propagation were established using the VWE, scan measurements of transcranial propagation with an angle of incidence of 40° and a genetic optimization algorithm. Ten (10) locations over three (3) skulls were used for ultrasound frequencies of 270 kHz and 836 kHz. Results with plastic materials demonstrated that the viscoelastic modeling predicted both longitudinal and shear propagation with an average (±s.d.) error of 9(±7)% of the wavelength in the predicted delay and an error of 6.7(±5)% in the estimation of transmitted power. Using the new optimal functions of speed of sound and global attenuation for the human skull, the proposed model predicted the transcranial ultrasound transmission for a frequency of 270 kHz with an expected error in the predicted delay of 5(±2.7)% of the wavelength. The sound propagation model predicted accurately the sound propagation regardless of either shear or longitudinal sound transmission dominated. For 836 kHz, the model predicted accurately in average with an error in the predicted delay of 17(±16)% of the wavelength. Results indicated the importance of the specificity of the information at a voxel level to better understand ultrasound transmission through the skull. These results and new model will be very valuable tools for the future development of transcranial applications of ultrasound therapy and imaging.

Evolutionary Dynamic Multiobjective Optimization Via Kalman Filter Prediction.

PubMed

Muruganantham, Arrchana; Tan, Kay Chen; Vadakkepat, Prahlad

2016-12-01

Evolutionary algorithms are effective in solving static multiobjective optimization problems resulting in the emergence of a number of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). Nevertheless, the interest in applying them to solve dynamic multiobjective optimization problems has only been tepid. Benchmark problems, appropriate performance metrics, as well as efficient algorithms are required to further the research in this field. One or more objectives may change with time in dynamic optimization problems. The optimization algorithm must be able to track the moving optima efficiently. A prediction model can learn the patterns from past experience and predict future changes. In this paper, a new dynamic MOEA using Kalman filter (KF) predictions in decision space is proposed to solve the aforementioned problems. The predictions help to guide the search toward the changed optima, thereby accelerating convergence. A scoring scheme is devised to hybridize the KF prediction with a random reinitialization method. Experimental results and performance comparisons with other state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is capable of significantly improving the dynamic optimization performance.

A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

2018-06-01

The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

Optimizing Blasting’s Air Overpressure Prediction Model using Swarm Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Asmawisham Alel, Mohd; Ruben Anak Upom, Mark; Asnida Abdullah, Rini; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd

2018-04-01

Air overpressure (AOp) resulting from blasting can cause damage and nuisance to nearby civilians. Thus, it is important to be able to predict AOp accurately. In this study, 8 different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were developed for the purpose of prediction of AOp. The ANN models were trained using different variants of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. AOp predictions were also made using an empirical equation, as suggested by United States Bureau of Mines (USBM), to serve as a benchmark. In order to develop the models, 76 blasting operations in Hulu Langat were investigated. All the ANN models were found to outperform the USBM equation in three performance metrics; root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Using a performance ranking method, MSO-Rand-Mut was determined to be the best prediction model for AOp with a performance metric of RMSE=2.18, MAPE=1.73% and R2=0.97. The result shows that ANN models trained using PSO are capable of predicting AOp with great accuracy.

Testing a hydraulic trait based model of stomatal control: results from a controlled drought experiment on aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, D. M.; Venturas, M.; Sperry, J.; Wang, Y.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Modeling approaches for tree stomatal control often rely on empirical fitting to provide accurate estimates of whole tree transpiration (E) and assimilation (A), which are limited in their predictive power by the data envelope used to calibrate model parameters. Optimization based models hold promise as a means to predict stomatal behavior under novel climate conditions. We designed an experiment to test a hydraulic trait based optimization model, which predicts stomatal conductance from a gain/risk approach. Optimal stomatal conductance is expected to maximize the potential carbon gain by photosynthesis, and minimize the risk to hydraulic transport imposed by cavitation. The modeled risk to the hydraulic network is assessed from cavitation vulnerability curves, a commonly measured physiological trait in woody plant species. Over a growing season garden grown plots of aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas) were subjected to three distinct drought treatments (moderate, severe, severe with rehydration) relative to a control plot to test model predictions. Model outputs of predicted E, A, and xylem pressure can be directly compared to both continuous data (whole tree sapflux, soil moisture) and point measurements (leaf level E, A, xylem pressure). The model also predicts levels of whole tree hydraulic impairment expected to increase mortality risk. This threshold is used to estimate survivorship in the drought treatment plots. The model can be run at two scales, either entirely from climate (meteorological inputs, irrigation) or using the physiological measurements as a starting point. These data will be used to study model performance and utility, and aid in developing the model for larger scale applications.

Prediction of Tensile Strength of Friction Stir Weld Joints with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Neural Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dewan, Mohammad W.; Huggett, Daniel J.; Liao, T. Warren; Wahab, Muhammad A.; Okeil, Ayman M.

2015-01-01

Friction-stir-welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process where joint properties are dependent on welding process parameters. In the current study three critical process parameters including spindle speed (??), plunge force (????), and welding speed (??) are considered key factors in the determination of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of welded aluminum alloy joints. A total of 73 weld schedules were welded and tensile properties were subsequently obtained experimentally. It is observed that all three process parameters have direct influence on UTS of the welded joints. Utilizing experimental data, an optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been developed to predict UTS of FSW joints. A total of 1200 models were developed by varying the number of membership functions (MFs), type of MFs, and combination of four input variables (??,??,????,??????) utilizing a MATLAB platform. Note EFI denotes an empirical force index derived from the three process parameters. For comparison, optimized artificial neural network (ANN) models were also developed to predict UTS from FSW process parameters. By comparing ANFIS and ANN predicted results, it was found that optimized ANFIS models provide better results than ANN. This newly developed best ANFIS model could be utilized for prediction of UTS of FSW joints.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boutilier, Justin J., E-mail: j.boutilier@mail.utoronto.ca; Lee, Taewoo; Craig, Tim

Purpose: To develop and evaluate the clinical applicability of advanced machine learning models that simultaneously predict multiple optimization objective function weights from patient geometry for intensity-modulated radiation therapy of prostate cancer. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method was applied retrospectively to determine optimal objective function weights for 315 treated patients. The authors used an overlap volume ratio (OV) of bladder and rectum for different PTV expansions and overlap volume histogram slopes (OVSR and OVSB for the rectum and bladder, respectively) as explanatory variables that quantify patient geometry. Using the optimal weights as ground truth, the authors trained and appliedmore » three prediction models: logistic regression (LR), multinomial logistic regression (MLR), and weighted K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The population average of the optimal objective function weights was also calculated. Results: The OV at 0.4 cm and OVSR at 0.1 cm features were found to be the most predictive of the weights. The authors observed comparable performance (i.e., no statistically significant difference) between LR, MLR, and KNN methodologies, with LR appearing to perform the best. All three machine learning models outperformed the population average by a statistically significant amount over a range of clinical metrics including bladder/rectum V53Gy, bladder/rectum V70Gy, and dose to the bladder, rectum, CTV, and PTV. When comparing the weights directly, the LR model predicted bladder and rectum weights that had, on average, a 73% and 74% relative improvement over the population average weights, respectively. The treatment plans resulting from the LR weights had, on average, a rectum V70Gy that was 35% closer to the clinical plan and a bladder V70Gy that was 29% closer, compared to the population average weights. Similar results were observed for all other clinical metrics. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the KNN and MLR weight prediction methodologies perform comparably to the LR model and can produce clinical quality treatment plans by simultaneously predicting multiple weights that capture trade-offs associated with sparing multiple OARs.« less

Application of experimental design for the optimization of artificial neural network-based water quality model: a case study of dissolved oxygen prediction.

PubMed

Šiljić Tomić, Aleksandra; Antanasijević, Davor; Ristić, Mirjana; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra; Pocajt, Viktor

2018-04-01

This paper presents an application of experimental design for the optimization of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) content in the Danube River. The aim of this research was to obtain a more reliable ANN model that uses fewer monitoring records, by simultaneous optimization of the following model parameters: number of monitoring sites, number of historical monitoring data (expressed in years), and number of input water quality parameters used. Box-Behnken three-factor at three levels experimental design was applied for simultaneous spatial, temporal, and input variables optimization of the ANN model. The prediction of DO was performed using a feed-forward back-propagation neural network (BPNN), while the selection of most important inputs was done off-model using multi-filter approach that combines a chi-square ranking in the first step with a correlation-based elimination in the second step. The contour plots of absolute and relative error response surfaces were utilized to determine the optimal values of design factors. From the contour plots, two BPNN models that cover entire Danube flow through Serbia are proposed: an upstream model (BPNN-UP) that covers 8 monitoring sites prior to Belgrade and uses 12 inputs measured in the 7-year period and a downstream model (BPNN-DOWN) which covers 9 monitoring sites and uses 11 input parameters measured in the 6-year period. The main difference between the two models is that BPNN-UP utilizes inputs such as BOD, P, and PO 4 3- , which is in accordance with the fact that this model covers northern part of Serbia (Vojvodina Autonomous Province) which is well-known for agricultural production and extensive use of fertilizers. Both models have shown very good agreement between measured and predicted DO (with R 2  ≥ 0.86) and demonstrated that they can effectively forecast DO content in the Danube River.

Optimization of time-course experiments for kinetic model discrimination.

PubMed

Lages, Nuno F; Cordeiro, Carlos; Sousa Silva, Marta; Ponces Freire, Ana; Ferreira, António E N

2012-01-01

Systems biology relies heavily on the construction of quantitative models of biochemical networks. These models must have predictive power to help unveiling the underlying molecular mechanisms of cellular physiology, but it is also paramount that they are consistent with the data resulting from key experiments. Often, it is possible to find several models that describe the data equally well, but provide significantly different quantitative predictions regarding particular variables of the network. In those cases, one is faced with a problem of model discrimination, the procedure of rejecting inappropriate models from a set of candidates in order to elect one as the best model to use for prediction.In this work, a method is proposed to optimize the design of enzyme kinetic assays with the goal of selecting a model among a set of candidates. We focus on models with systems of ordinary differential equations as the underlying mathematical description. The method provides a design where an extension of the Kullback-Leibler distance, computed over the time courses predicted by the models, is maximized. Given the asymmetric nature this measure, a generalized differential evolution algorithm for multi-objective optimization problems was used.The kinetics of yeast glyoxalase I (EC 4.4.1.5) was chosen as a difficult test case to evaluate the method. Although a single-substrate kinetic model is usually considered, a two-substrate mechanism has also been proposed for this enzyme. We designed an experiment capable of discriminating between the two models by optimizing the initial substrate concentrations of glyoxalase I, in the presence of the subsequent pathway enzyme, glyoxalase II (EC 3.1.2.6). This discriminatory experiment was conducted in the laboratory and the results indicate a two-substrate mechanism for the kinetics of yeast glyoxalase I.

Multi-objective optimization for model predictive control.

PubMed

Wojsznis, Willy; Mehta, Ashish; Wojsznis, Peter; Thiele, Dirk; Blevins, Terry

2007-06-01

This paper presents a technique of multi-objective optimization for Model Predictive Control (MPC) where the optimization has three levels of the objective function, in order of priority: handling constraints, maximizing economics, and maintaining control. The greatest weights are assigned dynamically to control or constraint variables that are predicted to be out of their limits. The weights assigned for economics have to out-weigh those assigned for control objectives. Control variables (CV) can be controlled at fixed targets or within one- or two-sided ranges around the targets. Manipulated Variables (MV) can have assigned targets too, which may be predefined values or current actual values. This MV functionality is extremely useful when economic objectives are not defined for some or all the MVs. To achieve this complex operation, handle process outputs predicted to go out of limits, and have a guaranteed solution for any condition, the technique makes use of the priority structure, penalties on slack variables, and redefinition of the constraint and control model. An engineering implementation of this approach is shown in the MPC embedded in an industrial control system. The optimization and control of a distillation column, the standard Shell heavy oil fractionator (HOF) problem, is adequately achieved with this MPC.

ADME evaluation in drug discovery. 1. Applications of genetic algorithms to the prediction of blood-brain partitioning of a large set of drugs.

PubMed

Hou, Tingjun; Xu, Xiaojie

2002-12-01

In this study, the relationships between the brain-blood concentration ratio of 96 structurally diverse compounds with a large number of structurally derived descriptors were investigated. The linear models were based on molecular descriptors that can be calculated for any compound simply from a knowledge of its molecular structure. The linear correlation coefficients of the models were optimized by genetic algorithms (GAs), and the descriptors used in the linear models were automatically selected from 27 structurally derived descriptors. The GA optimizations resulted in a group of linear models with three or four molecular descriptors with good statistical significance. The change of descriptor use as the evolution proceeds demonstrates that the octane/water partition coefficient and the partial negative solvent-accessible surface area multiplied by the negative charge are crucial to brain-blood barrier permeability. Moreover, we found that the predictions using multiple QSPR models from GA optimization gave quite good results in spite of the diversity of structures, which was better than the predictions using the best single model. The predictions for the two external sets with 37 diverse compounds using multiple QSPR models indicate that the best linear models with four descriptors are sufficiently effective for predictive use. Considering the ease of computation of the descriptors, the linear models may be used as general utilities to screen the blood-brain barrier partitioning of drugs in a high-throughput fashion.

Artificial neural networks as alternative tool for minimizing error predictions in manufacturing ultradeformable nanoliposome formulations.

PubMed

León Blanco, José M; González-R, Pedro L; Arroyo García, Carmen Martina; Cózar-Bernal, María José; Calle Suárez, Marcos; Canca Ortiz, David; Rabasco Álvarez, Antonio María; González Rodríguez, María Luisa

2018-01-01

This work was aimed at determining the feasibility of artificial neural networks (ANN) by implementing backpropagation algorithms with default settings to generate better predictive models than multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The study was hypothesized on timolol-loaded liposomes. As tutorial data for ANN, causal factors were used, which were fed into the computer program. The number of training cycles has been identified in order to optimize the performance of the ANN. The optimization was performed by minimizing the error between the predicted and real response values in the training step. The results showed that training was stopped at 10 000 training cycles with 80% of the pattern values, because at this point the ANN generalizes better. Minimum validation error was achieved at 12 hidden neurons in a single layer. MLR has great prediction ability, with errors between predicted and real values lower than 1% in some of the parameters evaluated. Thus, the performance of this model was compared to that of the MLR using a factorial design. Optimal formulations were identified by minimizing the distance among measured and theoretical parameters, by estimating the prediction errors. Results indicate that the ANN shows much better predictive ability than the MLR model. These findings demonstrate the increased efficiency of the combination of ANN and design of experiments, compared to the conventional MLR modeling techniques.

Model Predictive Optimal Control of a Time-Delay Distributed-Parameter Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan

2006-01-01

This paper presents an optimal control method for a class of distributed-parameter systems governed by first order, quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that arise in many physical systems. Such systems are characterized by time delays since information is transported from one state to another by wave propagation. A general closed-loop hyperbolic transport model is controlled by a boundary control embedded in a periodic boundary condition. The boundary control is subject to a nonlinear differential equation constraint that models actuator dynamics of the system. The hyperbolic equation is thus coupled with the ordinary differential equation via the boundary condition. Optimality of this coupled system is investigated using variational principles to seek an adjoint formulation of the optimal control problem. The results are then applied to implement a model predictive control design for a wind tunnel to eliminate a transport delay effect that causes a poor Mach number regulation.

Dynamic optimization of metabolic networks coupled with gene expression.

PubMed

Waldherr, Steffen; Oyarzún, Diego A; Bockmayr, Alexander

2015-01-21

The regulation of metabolic activity by tuning enzyme expression levels is crucial to sustain cellular growth in changing environments. Metabolic networks are often studied at steady state using constraint-based models and optimization techniques. However, metabolic adaptations driven by changes in gene expression cannot be analyzed by steady state models, as these do not account for temporal changes in biomass composition. Here we present a dynamic optimization framework that integrates the metabolic network with the dynamics of biomass production and composition. An approximation by a timescale separation leads to a coupled model of quasi-steady state constraints on the metabolic reactions, and differential equations for the substrate concentrations and biomass composition. We propose a dynamic optimization approach to determine reaction fluxes for this model, explicitly taking into account enzyme production costs and enzymatic capacity. In contrast to the established dynamic flux balance analysis, our approach allows predicting dynamic changes in both the metabolic fluxes and the biomass composition during metabolic adaptations. Discretization of the optimization problems leads to a linear program that can be efficiently solved. We applied our algorithm in two case studies: a minimal nutrient uptake network, and an abstraction of core metabolic processes in bacteria. In the minimal model, we show that the optimized uptake rates reproduce the empirical Monod growth for bacterial cultures. For the network of core metabolic processes, the dynamic optimization algorithm predicted commonly observed metabolic adaptations, such as a diauxic switch with a preference ranking for different nutrients, re-utilization of waste products after depletion of the original substrate, and metabolic adaptation to an impending nutrient depletion. These examples illustrate how dynamic adaptations of enzyme expression can be predicted solely from an optimization principle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of chemo-response in serous ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gonzalez Bosquet, Jesus; Newtson, Andreea M; Chung, Rebecca K; Thiel, Kristina W; Ginader, Timothy; Goodheart, Michael J; Leslie, Kimberly K; Smith, Brian J

2016-10-19

Nearly one-third of serous ovarian cancer (OVCA) patients will not respond to initial treatment with surgery and chemotherapy and die within one year of diagnosis. If patients who are unlikely to respond to current standard therapy can be identified up front, enhanced tumor analyses and treatment regimens could potentially be offered. Using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) serous OVCA database, we previously identified a robust molecular signature of 422-genes associated with chemo-response. Our objective was to test whether this signature is an accurate and sensitive predictor of chemo-response in serous OVCA. We first constructed prediction models to predict chemo-response using our previously described 422-gene signature that was associated with response to treatment in serous OVCA. Performance of all prediction models were measured with area under the curves (AUCs, a measure of the model's accuracy) and their respective confidence intervals (CIs). To optimize the prediction process, we determined which elements of the signature most contributed to chemo-response prediction. All prediction models were replicated and validated using six publicly available independent gene expression datasets. The 422-gene signature prediction models predicted chemo-response with AUCs of ~70 %. Optimization of prediction models identified the 34 most important genes in chemo-response prediction. These 34-gene models had improved performance, with AUCs approaching 80 %. Both 422-gene and 34-gene prediction models were replicated and validated in six independent datasets. These prediction models serve as the foundation for the future development and implementation of a diagnostic tool to predict response to chemotherapy for serous OVCA patients.

Optimal strategy analysis based on robust predictive control for inventory system with random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, Aditya; Widowati, Sutrisno

2017-12-01

In this paper, the optimal strategy for a single product single supplier inventory system with random demand is analyzed by using robust predictive control with additive random parameter. We formulate the dynamical system of this system as a linear state space with additive random parameter. To determine and analyze the optimal strategy for the given inventory system, we use robust predictive control approach which gives the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased from the supplier for each time period so that the expected cost is minimal. A numerical simulation is performed with some generated random inventory data. We simulate in MATLAB software where the inventory level must be controlled as close as possible to a set point decided by us. From the results, robust predictive control model provides the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased and the inventory level was followed the given set point.

[Application of near infrared spectroscopy combined with particle swarm optimization based least square support vactor machine to rapid quantitative analysis of Corni Fructus].

PubMed

Liu, Xue-song; Sun, Fen-fang; Jin, Ye; Wu, Yong-jiang; Gu, Zhi-xin; Zhu, Li; Yan, Dong-lan

2015-12-01

A novel method was developed for the rapid determination of multi-indicators in corni fructus by means of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) based least squares support vector machine was investigated to increase the levels of quality control. The calibration models of moisture, extractum, morroniside and loganin were established using the PSO-LS-SVM algorithm. The performance of PSO-LS-SVM models was compared with partial least squares regression (PLSR) and back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN). The calibration and validation results of PSO-LS-SVM were superior to both PLS and BP-ANN. For PSO-LS-SVM models, the correlation coefficients (r) of calibrations were all above 0.942. The optimal prediction results were also achieved by PSO-LS-SVM models with the RMSEP (root mean square error of prediction) and RSEP (relative standard errors of prediction) less than 1.176 and 15.5% respectively. The results suggest that PSO-LS-SVM algorithm has a good model performance and high prediction accuracy. NIR has a potential value for rapid determination of multi-indicators in Corni Fructus.

Analytic model for ultrasound energy receivers and their optimal electric loads II: Experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorostiaga, M.; Wapler, M. C.; Wallrabe, U.

2017-10-01

In this paper, we verify the two optimal electric load concepts based on the zero reflection condition and on the power maximization approach for ultrasound energy receivers. We test a high loss 1-3 composite transducer, and find that the measurements agree very well with the predictions of the analytic model for plate transducers that we have developed previously. Additionally, we also confirm that the power maximization and zero reflection loads are very different when the losses in the receiver are high. Finally, we compare the optimal load predictions by the KLM and the analytic models with frequency dependent attenuation to evaluate the influence of the viscosity.

Study on Coagulant Dosing Control System of Micro Vortex Water Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fengping, Hu; Qi, Fan; Wenjie, Hu; Xizhen, He; Hongling, Dai

2018-03-01

In view of the characteristics of nonlinearity, large time delay and multi disturbance in the process of coagulant dosing in water treatment, it is difficult to control the dosage of coagulant. According to the four indexes of raw water quality parameters (raw water flow, turbidity, pH value) and turbidity of sedimentation tank, the micro vortex coagulation dosing control model is constructed based on BP neural network and GA. The forecast results of BP neural network model are ideal, and after the optimization of GA, the prediction accuracy of the model is partly improved. The prediction error of the optimized network is ±0.5 mg/L, and has a better performance than non-optimized network.

Optimization of multi-environment trials for genomic selection based on crop models.

PubMed

Rincent, R; Kuhn, E; Monod, H; Oury, F-X; Rousset, M; Allard, V; Le Gouis, J

2017-08-01

We propose a statistical criterion to optimize multi-environment trials to predict genotype × environment interactions more efficiently, by combining crop growth models and genomic selection models. Genotype × environment interactions (GEI) are common in plant multi-environment trials (METs). In this context, models developed for genomic selection (GS) that refers to the use of genome-wide information for predicting breeding values of selection candidates need to be adapted. One promising way to increase prediction accuracy in various environments is to combine ecophysiological and genetic modelling thanks to crop growth models (CGM) incorporating genetic parameters. The efficiency of this approach relies on the quality of the parameter estimates, which depends on the environments composing this MET used for calibration. The objective of this study was to determine a method to optimize the set of environments composing the MET for estimating genetic parameters in this context. A criterion called OptiMET was defined to this aim, and was evaluated on simulated and real data, with the example of wheat phenology. The MET defined with OptiMET allowed estimating the genetic parameters with lower error, leading to higher QTL detection power and higher prediction accuracies. MET defined with OptiMET was on average more efficient than random MET composed of twice as many environments, in terms of quality of the parameter estimates. OptiMET is thus a valuable tool to determine optimal experimental conditions to best exploit MET and the phenotyping tools that are currently developed.

Bayesian assessment of the expected data impact on prediction confidence in optimal sampling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leube, P. C.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-02-01

Incorporating hydro(geo)logical data, such as head and tracer data, into stochastic models of (subsurface) flow and transport helps to reduce prediction uncertainty. Because of financial limitations for investigation campaigns, information needs toward modeling or prediction goals should be satisfied efficiently and rationally. Optimal design techniques find the best one among a set of investigation strategies. They optimize the expected impact of data on prediction confidence or related objectives prior to data collection. We introduce a new optimal design method, called PreDIA(gnosis) (Preposterior Data Impact Assessor). PreDIA derives the relevant probability distributions and measures of data utility within a fully Bayesian, generalized, flexible, and accurate framework. It extends the bootstrap filter (BF) and related frameworks to optimal design by marginalizing utility measures over the yet unknown data values. PreDIA is a strictly formal information-processing scheme free of linearizations. It works with arbitrary simulation tools, provides full flexibility concerning measurement types (linear, nonlinear, direct, indirect), allows for any desired task-driven formulations, and can account for various sources of uncertainty (e.g., heterogeneity, geostatistical assumptions, boundary conditions, measurement values, model structure uncertainty, a large class of model errors) via Bayesian geostatistics and model averaging. Existing methods fail to simultaneously provide these crucial advantages, which our method buys at relatively higher-computational costs. We demonstrate the applicability and advantages of PreDIA over conventional linearized methods in a synthetic example of subsurface transport. In the example, we show that informative data is often invisible for linearized methods that confuse zero correlation with statistical independence. Hence, PreDIA will often lead to substantially better sampling designs. Finally, we extend our example to specifically highlight the consideration of conceptual model uncertainty.

Practical approach to subject-specific estimation of knee joint contact force.

PubMed

Knarr, Brian A; Higginson, Jill S

2015-08-20

Compressive forces experienced at the knee can significantly contribute to cartilage degeneration. Musculoskeletal models enable predictions of the internal forces experienced at the knee, but validation is often not possible, as experimental data detailing loading at the knee joint is limited. Recently available data reporting compressive knee force through direct measurement using instrumented total knee replacements offer a unique opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of models. Previous studies have highlighted the importance of subject-specificity in increasing the accuracy of model predictions; however, these techniques may be unrealistic outside of a research setting. Therefore, the goal of our work was to identify a practical approach for accurate prediction of tibiofemoral knee contact force (KCF). Four methods for prediction of knee contact force were compared: (1) standard static optimization, (2) uniform muscle coordination weighting, (3) subject-specific muscle coordination weighting and (4) subject-specific strength adjustments. Walking trials for three subjects with instrumented knee replacements were used to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Predictions utilizing subject-specific muscle coordination weighting yielded the best agreement with experimental data; however this method required in vivo data for weighting factor calibration. Including subject-specific strength adjustments improved models' predictions compared to standard static optimization, with errors in peak KCF less than 0.5 body weight for all subjects. Overall, combining clinical assessments of muscle strength with standard tools available in the OpenSim software package, such as inverse kinematics and static optimization, appears to be a practical method for predicting joint contact force that can be implemented for many applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic model effects on the design and optimization of natural gas plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diaz, S.; Zabaloy, M.; Brignole, E.A.

1999-07-01

The design and optimization of natural gas plants is carried out on the basis of process simulators. The physical property package is generally based on cubic equations of state. By rigorous thermodynamics phase equilibrium conditions, thermodynamic functions, equilibrium phase separations, work and heat are computed. The aim of this work is to analyze the NGL turboexpansion process and identify possible process computations that are more sensitive to model predictions accuracy. Three equations of state, PR, SRK and Peneloux modification, are used to study the effect of property predictions on process calculations and plant optimization. It is shown that turboexpander plantsmore » have moderate sensitivity with respect to phase equilibrium computations, but higher accuracy is required for the prediction of enthalpy and turboexpansion work. The effect of modeling CO{sub 2} solubility is also critical in mixtures with high CO{sub 2} content in the feed.« less

SU-F-BRD-01: A Logistic Regression Model to Predict Objective Function Weights in Prostate Cancer IMRT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boutilier, J; Chan, T; Lee, T

2014-06-15

Purpose: To develop a statistical model that predicts optimization objective function weights from patient geometry for intensity-modulation radiotherapy (IMRT) of prostate cancer. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method (IOM) is applied retrospectively to determine optimal weights for 51 treated patients. We use an overlap volume ratio (OVR) of bladder and rectum for different PTV expansions in order to quantify patient geometry in explanatory variables. Using the optimal weights as ground truth, we develop and train a logistic regression (LR) model to predict the rectum weight and thus the bladder weight. Post hoc, we fix the weights of the leftmore » femoral head, right femoral head, and an artificial structure that encourages conformity to the population average while normalizing the bladder and rectum weights accordingly. The population average of objective function weights is used for comparison. Results: The OVR at 0.7cm was found to be the most predictive of the rectum weights. The LR model performance is statistically significant when compared to the population average over a range of clinical metrics including bladder/rectum V53Gy, bladder/rectum V70Gy, and mean voxel dose to the bladder, rectum, CTV, and PTV. On average, the LR model predicted bladder and rectum weights that are both 63% closer to the optimal weights compared to the population average. The treatment plans resulting from the LR weights have, on average, a rectum V70Gy that is 35% closer to the clinical plan and a bladder V70Gy that is 43% closer. Similar results are seen for bladder V54Gy and rectum V54Gy. Conclusion: Statistical modelling from patient anatomy can be used to determine objective function weights in IMRT for prostate cancer. Our method allows the treatment planners to begin the personalization process from an informed starting point, which may lead to more consistent clinical plans and reduce overall planning time.« less

NARMAX model identification of a palm oil biodiesel engine using multi-objective optimization differential evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, Zakwan; Zakaria, Mohd Zakimi; Nor, Azuwir Mohd; Saad, Mohd Sazli; Ahmad, Robiah; Jamaluddin, Hishamuddin

2017-09-01

This paper presents the black-box modelling of palm oil biodiesel engine (POB) using multi-objective optimization differential evolution (MOODE) algorithm. Two objective functions are considered in the algorithm for optimization; minimizing the number of term of a model structure and minimizing the mean square error between actual and predicted outputs. The mathematical model used in this study to represent the POB system is nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with exogenous input (NARMAX) model. Finally, model validity tests are applied in order to validate the possible models that was obtained from MOODE algorithm and lead to select an optimal model.

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

PubMed

Shang, Qiang; Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

2016-01-01

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

2016-01-01

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust. PMID:27551829

Experimental study of overland flow resistance coefficient model of grassland based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Peng; Yang, Er; Ni, Yong Xin

2018-06-01

The overland flow resistance on grassland slope of 20° was studied by using simulated rainfall experiments. Model of overland flow resistance coefficient was established based on BP neural network. The input variations of model were rainfall intensity, flow velocity, water depth, and roughness of slope surface, and the output variations was overland flow resistance coefficient. Model was optimized by Genetic Algorithm. The results show that the model can be used to calculate overland flow resistance coefficient, and has high simulation accuracy. The average prediction error of the optimized model of test set is 8.02%, and the maximum prediction error was 18.34%.

An alternative covariance estimator to investigate genetic heterogeneity in populations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genomic predictions and GWAS have used mixed models for identification of associations and trait predictions. In both cases, the covariance between individuals for performance is estimated using molecular markers. Mixed model properties indicate that the use of the data for prediction is optimal if ...

Application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization for landslide development prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X. Z.; Kong, J. M.

2013-10-01

Prediction of landslide development process is always a hot issue in landslide research. So far, many methods for landslide displacement series prediction have been proposed. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a novel algorithm with good performance. However, the performance strongly depends on the right selection of the parameters (C and γ) of SVM model. In this study, we presented an application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization in landslide displacement rate prediction. We selected a typical large-scale landslide in some hydro - electrical engineering area of Southwest China as a case. On the basis of analyzing the basic characteristics and monitoring data of the landslide, a single-factor GA-SVM model and a multi-factor GA-SVM model of the landslide were built. Moreover, the models were compared with single-factor and multi-factor SVM models of the landslide. The results show that, the four models have high prediction accuracies, but the accuracies of GA-SVM models are slightly higher than those of SVM models and the accuracies of multi-factor models are slightly higher than those of single-factor models for the landslide prediction. The accuracy of the multi-factor GA-SVM models is the highest, with the smallest RSME of 0.0009 and the biggest RI of 0.9992.

Dynamic modeling of green algae cultivation in a photobioreactor for sustainable biodiesel production.

PubMed

Del Rio-Chanona, Ehecatl A; Liu, Jiao; Wagner, Jonathan L; Zhang, Dongda; Meng, Yingying; Xue, Song; Shah, Nilay

2018-02-01

Biodiesel produced from microalgae has been extensively studied due to its potentially outstanding advantages over traditional transportation fuels. In order to facilitate its industrialization and improve the process profitability, it is vital to construct highly accurate models capable of predicting the complex behavior of the investigated biosystem for process optimization and control, which forms the current research goal. Three original contributions are described in this paper. Firstly, a dynamic model is constructed to simulate the complicated effect of light intensity, nutrient supply and light attenuation on both biomass growth and biolipid production. Secondly, chlorophyll fluorescence, an instantly measurable variable and indicator of photosynthetic activity, is embedded into the model to monitor and update model accuracy especially for the purpose of future process optimal control, and its correlation between intracellular nitrogen content is quantified, which to the best of our knowledge has never been addressed so far. Thirdly, a thorough experimental verification is conducted under different scenarios including both continuous illumination and light/dark cycle conditions to testify the model predictive capability particularly for long-term operation, and it is concluded that the current model is characterized by a high level of predictive capability. Based on the model, the optimal light intensity for algal biomass growth and lipid synthesis is estimated. This work, therefore, paves the way to forward future process design and real-time optimization. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Heat transfer optimization for air-mist cooling between a stack of parallel plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issa, Roy J.

2010-06-01

A theoretical model is developed to predict the upper limit heat transfer between a stack of parallel plates subject to multiphase cooling by air-mist flow. The model predicts the optimal separation distance between the plates based on the development of the boundary layers for small and large separation distances, and for dilute mist conditions. Simulation results show the optimal separation distance to be strongly dependent on the liquid-to-air mass flow rate loading ratio, and reach a limit for a critical loading. For these dilute spray conditions, complete evaporation of the droplets takes place. Simulation results also show the optimal separation distance decreases with the increase in the mist flow rate. The proposed theoretical model shall lead to a better understanding of the design of fins spacing in heat exchangers where multiphase spray cooling is used.

Predicting the continuum between corridors and barriers to animal movements using Step Selection Functions and Randomized Shortest Paths.

PubMed

Panzacchi, Manuela; Van Moorter, Bram; Strand, Olav; Saerens, Marco; Kivimäki, Ilkka; St Clair, Colleen C; Herfindal, Ivar; Boitani, Luigi

2016-01-01

The loss, fragmentation and degradation of habitat everywhere on Earth prompts increasing attention to identifying landscape features that support animal movement (corridors) or impedes it (barriers). Most algorithms used to predict corridors assume that animals move through preferred habitat either optimally (e.g. least cost path) or as random walkers (e.g. current models), but neither extreme is realistic. We propose that corridors and barriers are two sides of the same coin and that animals experience landscapes as spatiotemporally dynamic corridor-barrier continua connecting (separating) functional areas where individuals fulfil specific ecological processes. Based on this conceptual framework, we propose a novel methodological approach that uses high-resolution individual-based movement data to predict corridor-barrier continua with increased realism. Our approach consists of two innovations. First, we use step selection functions (SSF) to predict friction maps quantifying corridor-barrier continua for tactical steps between consecutive locations. Secondly, we introduce to movement ecology the randomized shortest path algorithm (RSP) which operates on friction maps to predict the corridor-barrier continuum for strategic movements between functional areas. By modulating the parameter Ѳ, which controls the trade-off between exploration and optimal exploitation of the environment, RSP bridges the gap between algorithms assuming optimal movements (when Ѳ approaches infinity, RSP is equivalent to LCP) or random walk (when Ѳ → 0, RSP → current models). Using this approach, we identify migration corridors for GPS-monitored wild reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) in Norway. We demonstrate that reindeer movement is best predicted by an intermediate value of Ѳ, indicative of a movement trade-off between optimization and exploration. Model calibration allows identification of a corridor-barrier continuum that closely fits empirical data and demonstrates that RSP outperforms models that assume either optimality or random walk. The proposed approach models the multiscale cognitive maps by which animals likely navigate real landscapes and generalizes the most common algorithms for identifying corridors. Because suboptimal, but non-random, movement strategies are likely widespread, our approach has the potential to predict more realistic corridor-barrier continua for a wide range of species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Model predictive control of attitude maneuver of a geostationary flexible satellite based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TayyebTaher, M.; Esmaeilzadeh, S. Majid

2017-07-01

This article presents an application of Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to the attitude control of a geostationary flexible satellite. SIMO model has been used for the geostationary satellite, using the Lagrange equations. Flexibility is also included in the modelling equations. The state space equations are expressed in order to simplify the controller. Naturally there is no specific tuning rule to find the best parameters of an MPC controller which fits the desired controller. Being an intelligence method for optimizing problem, Genetic Algorithm has been used for optimizing the performance of MPC controller by tuning the controller parameter due to minimum rise time, settling time, overshoot of the target point of the flexible structure and its mode shape amplitudes to make large attitude maneuvers possible. The model included geosynchronous orbit environment and geostationary satellite parameters. The simulation results of the flexible satellite with attitude maneuver shows the efficiency of proposed optimization method in comparison with LQR optimal controller.

Combined mixture-process variable approach: a suitable statistical tool for nanovesicular systems optimization.

PubMed

Habib, Basant A; AbouGhaly, Mohamed H H

2016-06-01

This study aims to illustrate the applicability of combined mixture-process variable (MPV) design and modeling for optimization of nanovesicular systems. The D-optimal experimental plan studied the influence of three mixture components (MCs) and two process variables (PVs) on lercanidipine transfersomes. The MCs were phosphatidylcholine (A), sodium glycocholate (B) and lercanidipine hydrochloride (C), while the PVs were glycerol amount in the hydration mixture (D) and sonication time (E). The studied responses were Y1: particle size, Y2: zeta potential and Y3: entrapment efficiency percent (EE%). Polynomial equations were used to study the influence of MCs and PVs on each response. Response surface methodology and multiple response optimization were applied to optimize the formulation with the goals of minimizing Y1 and maximizing Y2 and Y3. The obtained polynomial models had prediction R(2) values of 0.645, 0.947 and 0.795 for Y1, Y2 and Y3, respectively. Contour, Piepel's response trace, perturbation, and interaction plots were drawn for responses representation. The optimized formulation, A: 265 mg, B: 10 mg, C: 40 mg, D: zero g and E: 120 s, had desirability of 0.9526. The actual response values for the optimized formulation were within the two-sided 95% prediction intervals and were close to the predicted values with maximum percent deviation of 6.2%. This indicates the validity of combined MPV design and modeling for optimization of transfersomal formulations as an example of nanovesicular systems.

Experimental design and response surface modelling for optimization of vat dye from water by nano zero valent iron (NZVI).

PubMed

Arabi, Simin; Sohrabi, Mahmoud Reza

2013-01-01

In this study, NZVI particles was prepared and studied for the removal of vat green 1 dye from aqueous solution. A four-factor central composite design (CCD) combined with response surface modeling (RSM) to evaluate the combined effects of variables as well as optimization was employed for maximizing the dye removal by prepared NZVI based on 30 different experimental data obtained in a batch study. Four independent variables, viz. NZVI dose (0.1-0.9 g/L), pH (1.5-9.5), contact time (20-100 s), and initial dye concentration (10-50 mg/L) were transform to coded values and quadratic model was built to predict the responses. The significant of independent variables and their interactions were tested by the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Adequacy of the model was tested by the correlation between experimental and predicted values of the response and enumeration of prediction errors. The ANOVA results indicated that the proposed model can be used to navigate the design space. Optimization of the variables for maximum adsorption of dye by NZVI particles was performed using quadratic model. The predicted maximum adsorption efficiency (96.97%) under the optimum conditions of the process variables (NZVI dose 0.5 g/L, pH 4, contact time 60 s, and initial dye concentration 30 mg/L) was very close to the experimental value (96.16%) determined in batch experiment. In the optimization, R2 and R2adj correlation coefficients for the model were evaluated as 0.95 and 0.90, respectively.

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2015-01-01

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Unrealistic optimism in advice taking: A computational account.

PubMed

Leong, Yuan Chang; Zaki, Jamil

2018-02-01

Expert advisors often make surprisingly inaccurate predictions about the future, yet people heed their suggestions nonetheless. Here we provide a novel, computational account of this unrealistic optimism in advice taking. Across 3 studies, participants observed as advisors predicted the performance of a stock. Advisors varied in their accuracy, performing reliably above, at, or below chance. Despite repeated feedback, participants exhibited inflated perceptions of advisors' accuracy, and reliably "bet" on advisors' predictions more than their performance warranted. Participants' decisions tightly tracked a computational model that makes 2 assumptions: (a) people hold optimistic initial expectations about advisors, and (b) people preferentially incorporate information that adheres to their expectations when learning about advisors. Consistent with model predictions, explicitly manipulating participants' initial expectations altered their optimism bias and subsequent advice-taking. With well-calibrated initial expectations, participants no longer exhibited an optimism bias. We then explored crowdsourced ratings as a strategy to curb unrealistic optimism in advisors. Star ratings for each advisor were collected from an initial group of participants, which were then shown to a second group of participants. Instead of calibrating expectations, these ratings propagated and exaggerated the unrealistic optimism. Our results provide a computational account of the cognitive processes underlying inflated perceptions of expertise, and explore the boundary conditions under which they occur. We discuss the adaptive value of this optimism bias, and how our account can be extended to explain unrealistic optimism in other domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Adjoint Method and Predictive Control for 1-D Flow in NASA Ames 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan; Ardema, Mark

2006-01-01

This paper describes a modeling method and a new optimal control approach to investigate a Mach number control problem for the NASA Ames 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The flow in the wind tunnel is modeled by the 1-D unsteady Euler equations whose boundary conditions prescribe a controlling action by a compressor. The boundary control inputs to the compressor are in turn controlled by a drive motor system and an inlet guide vane system whose dynamics are modeled by ordinary differential equations. The resulting Euler equations are thus coupled to the ordinary differential equations via the boundary conditions. Optimality conditions are established by an adjoint method and are used to develop a model predictive linear-quadratic optimal control for regulating the Mach number due to a test model disturbance during a continuous pitch

Prediction on sunspot activity based on fuzzy information granulation and support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Lingling; Yan, Haisheng; Yang, Zhigang

2018-04-01

In order to analyze the range of sunspots, a combined prediction method of forecasting the fluctuation range of sunspots based on fuzzy information granulation (FIG) and support vector machine (SVM) was put forward. Firstly, employing the FIG to granulate sample data and extract va)alid information of each window, namely the minimum value, the general average value and the maximum value of each window. Secondly, forecasting model is built respectively with SVM and then cross method is used to optimize these parameters. Finally, the fluctuation range of sunspots is forecasted with the optimized SVM model. Case study demonstrates that the model have high accuracy and can effectively predict the fluctuation of sunspots.

Direct Methods for Predicting Movement Biomechanics Based Upon Optimal Control Theory with Implementation in OpenSim.

PubMed

Porsa, Sina; Lin, Yi-Chung; Pandy, Marcus G

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the computational performances of two direct methods for solving large-scale, nonlinear, optimal control problems in human movement. Direct shooting and direct collocation were implemented on an 8-segment, 48-muscle model of the body (24 muscles on each side) to compute the optimal control solution for maximum-height jumping. Both algorithms were executed on a freely-available musculoskeletal modeling platform called OpenSim. Direct collocation converged to essentially the same optimal solution up to 249 times faster than direct shooting when the same initial guess was assumed (3.4 h of CPU time for direct collocation vs. 35.3 days for direct shooting). The model predictions were in good agreement with the time histories of joint angles, ground reaction forces and muscle activation patterns measured for subjects jumping to their maximum achievable heights. Both methods converged to essentially the same solution when started from the same initial guess, but computation time was sensitive to the initial guess assumed. Direct collocation demonstrates exceptional computational performance and is well suited to performing predictive simulations of movement using large-scale musculoskeletal models.

Predicting Student Performance in a Collaborative Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsen, Jennifer K.; Aleven, Vincent; Rummel, Nikol

2015-01-01

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

A stochastic model for optimizing composite predictors based on gene expression profiles.

PubMed

Ramanathan, Murali

2003-07-01

This project was done to develop a mathematical model for optimizing composite predictors based on gene expression profiles from DNA arrays and proteomics. The problem was amenable to a formulation and solution analogous to the portfolio optimization problem in mathematical finance: it requires the optimization of a quadratic function subject to linear constraints. The performance of the approach was compared to that of neighborhood analysis using a data set containing cDNA array-derived gene expression profiles from 14 multiple sclerosis patients receiving intramuscular inteferon-beta1a. The Markowitz portfolio model predicts that the covariance between genes can be exploited to construct an efficient composite. The model predicts that a composite is not needed for maximizing the mean value of a treatment effect: only a single gene is needed, but the usefulness of the effect measure may be compromised by high variability. The model optimized the composite to yield the highest mean for a given level of variability or the least variability for a given mean level. The choices that meet this optimization criteria lie on a curve of composite mean vs. composite variability plot referred to as the "efficient frontier." When a composite is constructed using the model, it outperforms the composite constructed using the neighborhood analysis method. The Markowitz portfolio model may find potential applications in constructing composite biomarkers and in the pharmacogenomic modeling of treatment effects derived from gene expression endpoints.

Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

2017-11-01

The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

Implementation of new pavement performance prediction models in PMIS : report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-08-01

Pavement performance prediction models and maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) optimization processes : enable managers and engineers to plan and prioritize pavement M&R activities in a cost-effective manner. : This report describes TxDOTs effort...

[Analyzing and modeling methods of near infrared spectroscopy for in-situ prediction of oil yield from oil shale].

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Zhang, Fu-Dong; Teng, Fei; Li, Jun; Wang, Zhi-Hong

2014-10-01

In order to in-situ detect the oil yield of oil shale, based on portable near infrared spectroscopy analytical technology, with 66 rock core samples from No. 2 well drilling of Fuyu oil shale base in Jilin, the modeling and analyzing methods for in-situ detection were researched. By the developed portable spectrometer, 3 data formats (reflectance, absorbance and K-M function) spectra were acquired. With 4 different modeling data optimization methods: principal component-mahalanobis distance (PCA-MD) for eliminating abnormal samples, uninformative variables elimination (UVE) for wavelength selection and their combina- tions: PCA-MD + UVE and UVE + PCA-MD, 2 modeling methods: partial least square (PLS) and back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and the same data pre-processing, the modeling and analyzing experiment were performed to determine the optimum analysis model and method. The results show that the data format, modeling data optimization method and modeling method all affect the analysis precision of model. Results show that whether or not using the optimization method, reflectance or K-M function is the proper spectrum format of the modeling database for two modeling methods. Using two different modeling methods and four different data optimization methods, the model precisions of the same modeling database are different. For PLS modeling method, the PCA-MD and UVE + PCA-MD data optimization methods can improve the modeling precision of database using K-M function spectrum data format. For BPANN modeling method, UVE, UVE + PCA-MD and PCA- MD + UVE data optimization methods can improve the modeling precision of database using any of the 3 spectrum data formats. In addition to using the reflectance spectra and PCA-MD data optimization method, modeling precision by BPANN method is better than that by PLS method. And modeling with reflectance spectra, UVE optimization method and BPANN modeling method, the model gets the highest analysis precision, its correlation coefficient (Rp) is 0.92, and its standard error of prediction (SEP) is 0.69%.

Design of optimal hyperthermia protocols for prostate cancer by controlling HSP expression through computer modeling (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rylander, Marissa N.; Feng, Yusheng; Diller, Kenneth; Bass, J.

2005-04-01

Heat shock proteins (HSP) are critical components of a complex defense mechanism essential for preserving cell survival under adverse environmental conditions. It is inevitable that hyperthermia will enhance tumor tissue viability, due to HSP expression in regions where temperatures are insufficient to coagulate proteins, and would likely increase the probability of cancer recurrence. Although hyperthermia therapy is commonly used in conjunction with radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and gene therapy to increase therapeutic effectiveness, the efficacy of these therapies can be substantially hindered due to HSP expression when hyperthermia is applied prior to these procedures. Therefore, in planning hyperthermia protocols, prediction of the HSP response of the tumor must be incorporated into the treatment plan to optimize the thermal dose delivery and permit prediction of overall tissue response. In this paper, we present a highly accurate, adaptive, finite element tumor model capable of predicting the HSP expression distribution and tissue damage region based on measured cellular data when hyperthermia protocols are specified. Cubic spline representations of HSP27 and HSP70, and Arrhenius damage models were integrated into the finite element model to enable prediction of the HSP expression and damage distribution in the tissue following laser heating. Application of the model can enable optimized treatment planning by controlling of the tissue response to therapy based on accurate prediction of the HSP expression and cell damage distribution.

Neural Network Prediction of New Aircraft Design Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norgaard, Magnus; Jorgensen, Charles C.; Ross, James C.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a neural network tool for more effective aircraft design evaluations during wind tunnel tests. Using a hybrid neural network optimization method, we have produced fast and reliable predictions of aerodynamical coefficients, found optimal flap settings, and flap schedules. For validation, the tool was tested on a 55% scale model of the USAF/NASA Subsonic High Alpha Research Concept aircraft (SHARC). Four different networks were trained to predict coefficients of lift, drag, moment of inertia, and lift drag ratio (C(sub L), C(sub D), C(sub M), and L/D) from angle of attack and flap settings. The latter network was then used to determine an overall optimal flap setting and for finding optimal flap schedules.

Context-dependent flight speed: evidence for energetically optimal flight speed in the bat Pipistrellus kuhlii?

PubMed

Grodzinski, Uri; Spiegel, Orr; Korine, Carmi; Holderied, Marc W

2009-05-01

1. Understanding the causes and consequences of animal flight speed has long been a challenge in biology. Aerodynamic theory is used to predict the most economical flight speeds, minimizing energy expenditure either per distance (maximal range speed, Vmr) or per time (minimal power speed, Vmp). When foraging in flight, flight speed also affects prey encounter and energy intake rates. According to optimal flight speed theory, such effects may shift the energetically optimal foraging speed to above Vmp. 2. Therefore, we predicted that if energetic considerations indeed have a substantial effect on flight speed of aerial-hawking bats, they will use high speed (close to Vmr) to commute from their daily roost to the foraging sites, while a slower speed (but still above Vmp) will be preferred during foraging. To test these predictions, echolocation calls of commuting and foraging Pipistrellus kuhlii were recorded and their flight tracks were reconstructed using an acoustic flight path tracking system. 3. Confirming our qualitative prediction, commuting flight was found to be significantly faster than foraging flight (9.3 vs. 6.7 m s(-1)), even when controlling for its lower tortuosity. 4. In order to examine our quantitative prediction, we compared observed flight speeds with Vmp and Vmr values generated for the study population using two alternative aerodynamic models, based on mass and wing morphology variables measured from bats we captured while commuting. The Vmp and Vmr values generated by one of the models were much lower than our measured flight speed. According to the other model used, however, measured foraging flight was faster than Vmp and commuting flight slightly slower than Vmr, which is in agreement with the predictions of optimal flight speed theory. 5. Thus, the second aerodynamic model we used seems to be a reasonable predictor of the different flight speeds used by the bats while foraging and while commuting. This supports the hypothesis that bats fly at a context-dependent, energetically optimal flight speed.

Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan

2018-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.

Determination of the Spatial Distribution in Hydraulic Conductivity Using Genetic Algorithm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksoy, A.; Lee, J. H.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2016-12-01

Heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity (K) impacts the transport and fate of contaminants in subsurface as well as design and operation of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) systems. Recently, improvements in computational resources and availability of big data through electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and remote sensing have provided opportunities to better characterize the subsurface. Yet, there is need to improve prediction and evaluation methods in order to obtain information from field measurements for better field characterization. In this study, genetic algorithm optimization, which has been widely used in optimal aquifer remediation designs, was used to determine the spatial distribution of K. A hypothetical 2 km by 2 km aquifer was considered. A genetic algorithm library, PGAPack, was linked with a fast Fourier transform based random field generator as well as a groundwater flow and contaminant transport simulation model (BIO2D-KE). The objective of the optimization model was to minimize the total squared error between measured and predicted field values. It was assumed measured K values were available through ERT. Performance of genetic algorithm in predicting the distribution of K was tested for different cases. In the first one, it was assumed that observed K values were evaluated using the random field generator only as the forward model. In the second case, as well as K-values obtained through ERT, measured head values were incorporated into evaluation in which BIO2D-KE and random field generator were used as the forward models. Lastly, tracer concentrations were used as additional information in the optimization model. Initial results indicated enhanced performance when random field generator and BIO2D-KE are used in combination in predicting the spatial distribution in K.

A Formal Approach to Empirical Dynamic Model Optimization and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G; Morelli, Eugene A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2014-01-01

A framework was developed for the optimization and validation of empirical dynamic models subject to an arbitrary set of validation criteria. The validation requirements imposed upon the model, which may involve several sets of input-output data and arbitrary specifications in time and frequency domains, are used to determine if model predictions are within admissible error limits. The parameters of the empirical model are estimated by finding the parameter realization for which the smallest of the margins of requirement compliance is as large as possible. The uncertainty in the value of this estimate is characterized by studying the set of model parameters yielding predictions that comply with all the requirements. Strategies are presented for bounding this set, studying its dependence on admissible prediction error set by the analyst, and evaluating the sensitivity of the model predictions to parameter variations. This information is instrumental in characterizing uncertainty models used for evaluating the dynamic model at operating conditions differing from those used for its identification and validation. A practical example based on the short period dynamics of the F-16 is used for illustration.

Multivariate analysis of PRISMA optimized TLC image for predicting antioxidant activity and identification of contributing compounds from Pereskia bleo.

PubMed

Sharif, K M; Rahman, M M; Azmir, J; Khatib, A; Sabina, E; Shamsudin, S H; Zaidul, I S M

2015-12-01

Multivariate analysis of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) images was modeled to predict antioxidant activity of Pereskia bleo leaves and to identify the contributing compounds of the activity. TLC was developed in optimized mobile phase using the 'PRISMA' optimization method and the image was then converted to wavelet signals and imported for multivariate analysis. An orthogonal partial least square (OPLS) model was developed consisting of a wavelet-converted TLC image and 2,2-diphynyl-picrylhydrazyl free radical scavenging activity of 24 different preparations of P. bleo as the x- and y-variables, respectively. The quality of the constructed OPLS model (1 + 1 + 0) with one predictive and one orthogonal component was evaluated by internal and external validity tests. The validated model was then used to identify the contributing spot from the TLC plate that was then analyzed by GC-MS after trimethylsilyl derivatization. Glycerol and amine compounds were mainly found to contribute to the antioxidant activity of the sample. An alternative method to predict the antioxidant activity of a new sample of P. bleo leaves has been developed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mathematical model-based optimization of physico-enzymatic hydrolysis of Pinus roxburghii needles for the production of reducing sugars.

PubMed

Vats, Siddharth; Maurya, Devendra Prasad; Jain, Ayushi; Mall, Varija; Negi, Sangeeta

2013-11-01

The objective of this study was to optimize the physico-enzymatic pretreatment of P. roxburghii fallen foliage (needles) to produce reducing sugars through response surface methodology (RSM) with central composite face centered design (CCD). Under this, five parameters, i.e., concentration of laccase, cellulose and xylanase, steam explosion pressure and incubation period, at three levels with twenty six runs were taken into account. Cellulase, xylanase and laccase enzymes with activity 4.563, 38.32 and 0.05 IU/mL, respectively, were produced from locally isolated microbial strains. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied for the validation of the predicted model at 95% of confidence level. This model predicted 334 mg/g release of reducing sugars on treating P. roxburghii fallen foliage with 1.18 mL of cellulose, 0.31 mL of xylanase and 0.01 mL of laccase, 14.39 psi steam explosion pressure and 24 h of incubation time. The experimental results obtained were in good agreement to predicted values, making it a reliable optimized model for five factors in combination to predict reducing sugar yield for ethanol production for bio-fuel industry.

Development of Multivariable Models to Predict and Benchmark Transfusion in Elective Surgery Supporting Patient Blood Management.

PubMed

Hayn, Dieter; Kreiner, Karl; Ebner, Hubert; Kastner, Peter; Breznik, Nada; Rzepka, Angelika; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Schreier, Günter

2017-06-14

Blood transfusion is a highly prevalent procedure in hospitalized patients and in some clinical scenarios it has lifesaving potential. However, in most cases transfusion is administered to hemodynamically stable patients with no benefit, but increased odds of adverse patient outcomes and substantial direct and indirect cost. Therefore, the concept of Patient Blood Management has increasingly gained importance to pre-empt and reduce transfusion and to identify the optimal transfusion volume for an individual patient when transfusion is indicated. It was our aim to describe, how predictive modeling and machine learning tools applied on pre-operative data can be used to predict the amount of red blood cells to be transfused during surgery and to prospectively optimize blood ordering schedules. In addition, the data derived from the predictive models should be used to benchmark different hospitals concerning their blood transfusion patterns. 6,530 case records obtained for elective surgeries from 16 centers taking part in two studies conducted in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were analyzed. Transfused red blood cell volume was predicted using random forests. Separate models were trained for overall data, for each center and for each of the two studies. Important characteristics of different models were compared with one another. Our results indicate that predictive modeling applied prior surgery can predict the transfused volume of red blood cells more accurately (correlation coefficient cc = 0.61) than state of the art algorithms (cc = 0.39). We found significantly different patterns of feature importance a) in different hospitals and b) between study 1 and study 2. We conclude that predictive modeling can be used to benchmark the importance of different features on the models derived with data from different hospitals. This might help to optimize crucial processes in a specific hospital, even in other scenarios beyond Patient Blood Management.

Coupling of EIT with computational lung modeling for predicting patient-specific ventilatory responses.

PubMed

Roth, Christian J; Becher, Tobias; Frerichs, Inéz; Weiler, Norbert; Wall, Wolfgang A

2017-04-01

Providing optimal personalized mechanical ventilation for patients with acute or chronic respiratory failure is still a challenge within a clinical setting for each case anew. In this article, we integrate electrical impedance tomography (EIT) monitoring into a powerful patient-specific computational lung model to create an approach for personalizing protective ventilatory treatment. The underlying computational lung model is based on a single computed tomography scan and able to predict global airflow quantities, as well as local tissue aeration and strains for any ventilation maneuver. For validation, a novel "virtual EIT" module is added to our computational lung model, allowing to simulate EIT images based on the patient's thorax geometry and the results of our numerically predicted tissue aeration. Clinically measured EIT images are not used to calibrate the computational model. Thus they provide an independent method to validate the computational predictions at high temporal resolution. The performance of this coupling approach has been tested in an example patient with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The method shows good agreement between computationally predicted and clinically measured airflow data and EIT images. These results imply that the proposed framework can be used for numerical prediction of patient-specific responses to certain therapeutic measures before applying them to an actual patient. In the long run, definition of patient-specific optimal ventilation protocols might be assisted by computational modeling. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this work, we present a patient-specific computational lung model that is able to predict global and local ventilatory quantities for a given patient and any selected ventilation protocol. For the first time, such a predictive lung model is equipped with a virtual electrical impedance tomography module allowing real-time validation of the computed results with the patient measurements. First promising results obtained in an acute respiratory distress syndrome patient show the potential of this approach for personalized computationally guided optimization of mechanical ventilation in future. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Spectral optimization and uncertainty quantification in combustion modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheen, David Allan

Reliable simulations of reacting flow systems require a well-characterized, detailed chemical model as a foundation. Accuracy of such a model can be assured, in principle, by a multi-parameter optimization against a set of experimental data. However, the inherent uncertainties in the rate evaluations and experimental data leave a model still characterized by some finite kinetic rate parameter space. Without a careful analysis of how this uncertainty space propagates into the model's predictions, those predictions can at best be trusted only qualitatively. In this work, the Method of Uncertainty Minimization using Polynomial Chaos Expansions is proposed to quantify these uncertainties. In this method, the uncertainty in the rate parameters of the as-compiled model is quantified. Then, the model is subjected to a rigorous multi-parameter optimization, as well as a consistency-screening process. Lastly, the uncertainty of the optimized model is calculated using an inverse spectral optimization technique, and then propagated into a range of simulation conditions. An as-compiled, detailed H2/CO/C1-C4 kinetic model is combined with a set of ethylene combustion data to serve as an example. The idea that the hydrocarbon oxidation model should be understood and developed in a hierarchical fashion has been a major driving force in kinetics research for decades. How this hierarchical strategy works at a quantitative level, however, has never been addressed. In this work, we use ethylene and propane combustion as examples and explore the question of hierarchical model development quantitatively. The Method of Uncertainty Minimization using Polynomial Chaos Expansions is utilized to quantify the amount of information that a particular combustion experiment, and thereby each data set, contributes to the model. This knowledge is applied to explore the relationships among the combustion chemistry of hydrogen/carbon monoxide, ethylene, and larger alkanes. Frequently, new data will become available, and it will be desirable to know the effect that inclusion of these data has on the optimized model. Two cases are considered here. In the first, a study of H2/CO mass burning rates has recently been published, wherein the experimentally-obtained results could not be reconciled with any extant H2/CO oxidation model. It is shown in that an optimized H2/CO model can be developed that will reproduce the results of the new experimental measurements. In addition, the high precision of the new experiments provide a strong constraint on the reaction rate parameters of the chemistry model, manifested in a significant improvement in the precision of simulations. In the second case, species time histories were measured during n-heptane oxidation behind reflected shock waves. The highly precise nature of these measurements is expected to impose critical constraints on chemical kinetic models of hydrocarbon combustion. The results show that while an as-compiled, prior reaction model of n-alkane combustion can be accurate in its prediction of the detailed species profiles, the kinetic parameter uncertainty in the model remains to be too large to obtain a precise prediction of the data. Constraining the prior model against the species time histories within the measurement uncertainties led to notable improvements in the precision of model predictions against the species data as well as the global combustion properties considered. Lastly, we show that while the capability of the multispecies measurement presents a step-change in our precise knowledge of the chemical processes in hydrocarbon combustion, accurate data of global combustion properties are still necessary to predict fuel combustion.

Optimism/pessimism and future orientation as predictors of suicidal ideation: Are there ethnic differences?

PubMed

Yu, Elizabeth A; Chang, Edward C

2016-10-01

The present study sought to test the generalizability of Chang et al.'s (2013) model, which suggests that optimism/pessimism and future orientation function as additive and interactive predictors of suicidal risk, to specific ethnic minority college student groups (i.e., Asian Americans, African Americans, and Latino Americans). The present study used Chang et al.'s (2013) model to predict suicidal ideation among 81 (34 male and 47 female) Asian-American, 71 (22 male and 49 female) African-American adults, and 83 (34 male and 49 female) Latino-American college students. Our results indicated that this model did not predict suicidal ideation well for Asian-American college students; however, it did work well to predict suicidal ideation for African-American and Latino-American college students. Our findings indicate that optimism/pessimism and future orientation are important positive cognitions involved with suicidal ideation for African-American and Latino-American college students. Further research is needed to better understand the cultural underpinnings of how these positive cognitions work to predict suicide-related outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Sakoda, Lori C; Henderson, Louise M; Caverly, Tanner J; Wernli, Karen J; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-12-01

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice. Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening. Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.

Development of a 3D log sawing optimization system for small sawmills in central Appalachia, US

Treesearch

Wenshu Lin; Jingxin Wang; Edward Thomas

2011-01-01

A 3D log sawing optimization system was developed to perform log generation, opening face determination, sawing simulation, and lumber grading using 3D modeling techniques. Heuristic and dynamic programming algorithms were used to determine opening face and grade sawing optimization. Positions and shapes of internal log defects were predicted using a model developed by...

Artificial Intelligence Based Optimization for the Se(IV) Removal from Aqueous Solution by Reduced Graphene Oxide-Supported Nanoscale Zero-Valent Iron Composites

PubMed Central

Cao, Rensheng; Ruan, Wenqian; Wu, Xianliang; Wei, Xionghui

2018-01-01

Highly promising artificial intelligence tools, including neural network (ANN), genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), were applied in the present study to develop an approach for the evaluation of Se(IV) removal from aqueous solutions by reduced graphene oxide-supported nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI/rGO) composites. Both GA and PSO were used to optimize the parameters of ANN. The effect of operational parameters (i.e., initial pH, temperature, contact time and initial Se(IV) concentration) on the removal efficiency was examined using response surface methodology (RSM), which was also utilized to obtain a dataset for the ANN training. The ANN-GA model results (with a prediction error of 2.88%) showed a better agreement with the experimental data than the ANN-PSO model results (with a prediction error of 4.63%) and the RSM model results (with a prediction error of 5.56%), thus the ANN-GA model was an ideal choice for modeling and optimizing the Se(IV) removal by the nZVI/rGO composites due to its low prediction error. The analysis of the experimental data illustrates that the removal process of Se(IV) obeyed the Langmuir isotherm and the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. Furthermore, the Se 3d and 3p peaks found in XPS spectra for the nZVI/rGO composites after removing treatment illustrates that the removal of Se(IV) was mainly through the adsorption and reduction mechanisms. PMID:29543753

The salt marsh vegetation spread dynamics simulation and prediction based on conditions optimized CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yujuan; Zhang, Liquan

2006-10-01

The biodiversity conservation and management of the salt marsh vegetation relies on processing their spatial information. Nowadays, more attentions are focused on their classification surveying and describing qualitatively dynamics based on RS images interpreted, rather than on simulating and predicting their dynamics quantitatively, which is of greater importance for managing and planning the salt marsh vegetation. In this paper, our notion is to make a dynamic model on large-scale and to provide a virtual laboratory in which researchers can run it according requirements. Firstly, the characteristic of the cellular automata was analyzed and a conclusion indicated that it was necessary for a CA model to be extended geographically under varying conditions of space-time circumstance in order to make results matched the facts accurately. Based on the conventional cellular automata model, the author introduced several new conditions to optimize it for simulating the vegetation objectively, such as elevation, growth speed, invading ability, variation and inheriting and so on. Hence the CA cells and remote sensing image pixels, cell neighbors and pixel neighbors, cell rules and nature of the plants were unified respectively. Taking JiuDuanSha as the test site, where holds mainly Phragmites australis (P.australis) community, Scirpus mariqueter (S.mariqueter) community and Spartina alterniflora (S.alterniflora) community. The paper explored the process of making simulation and predictions about these salt marsh vegetable changing with the conditions optimized CA (COCA) model, and examined the links among data, statistical models, and ecological predictions. This study exploited the potential of applying Conditioned Optimized CA model technique to solve this problem.

Artificial Intelligence Based Optimization for the Se(IV) Removal from Aqueous Solution by Reduced Graphene Oxide-Supported Nanoscale Zero-Valent Iron Composites.

PubMed

Cao, Rensheng; Fan, Mingyi; Hu, Jiwei; Ruan, Wenqian; Wu, Xianliang; Wei, Xionghui

2018-03-15

Highly promising artificial intelligence tools, including neural network (ANN), genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), were applied in the present study to develop an approach for the evaluation of Se(IV) removal from aqueous solutions by reduced graphene oxide-supported nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI/rGO) composites. Both GA and PSO were used to optimize the parameters of ANN. The effect of operational parameters (i.e., initial pH, temperature, contact time and initial Se(IV) concentration) on the removal efficiency was examined using response surface methodology (RSM), which was also utilized to obtain a dataset for the ANN training. The ANN-GA model results (with a prediction error of 2.88%) showed a better agreement with the experimental data than the ANN-PSO model results (with a prediction error of 4.63%) and the RSM model results (with a prediction error of 5.56%), thus the ANN-GA model was an ideal choice for modeling and optimizing the Se(IV) removal by the nZVI/rGO composites due to its low prediction error. The analysis of the experimental data illustrates that the removal process of Se(IV) obeyed the Langmuir isotherm and the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. Furthermore, the Se 3d and 3p peaks found in XPS spectra for the nZVI/rGO composites after removing treatment illustrates that the removal of Se(IV) was mainly through the adsorption and reduction mechanisms.

Next-generation genome-scale models for metabolic engineering.

PubMed

King, Zachary A; Lloyd, Colton J; Feist, Adam M; Palsson, Bernhard O

2015-12-01

Constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) methods have become widely used tools for metabolic engineering in both academic and industrial laboratories. By employing a genome-scale in silico representation of the metabolic network of a host organism, COBRA methods can be used to predict optimal genetic modifications that improve the rate and yield of chemical production. A new generation of COBRA models and methods is now being developed--encompassing many biological processes and simulation strategies-and next-generation models enable new types of predictions. Here, three key examples of applying COBRA methods to strain optimization are presented and discussed. Then, an outlook is provided on the next generation of COBRA models and the new types of predictions they will enable for systems metabolic engineering. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of number of training generations on genomic prediction for various traits in a layer chicken population.

PubMed

Weng, Ziqing; Wolc, Anna; Shen, Xia; Fernando, Rohan L; Dekkers, Jack C M; Arango, Jesus; Settar, Petek; Fulton, Janet E; O'Sullivan, Neil P; Garrick, Dorian J

2016-03-19

Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes are widely used in animal improvement programs. It is typically assumed that the larger the number of animals is in the training set, the higher is the prediction accuracy of GEBV. The aim of this study was to quantify genomic prediction accuracy depending on the number of ancestral generations included in the training set, and to determine the optimal number of training generations for different traits in an elite layer breeding line. Phenotypic records for 16 traits on 17,793 birds were used. All parents and some selection candidates from nine non-overlapping generations were genotyped for 23,098 segregating SNPs. An animal model with pedigree relationships (PBLUP) and the BayesB genomic prediction model were applied to predict EBV or GEBV at each validation generation (progeny of the most recent training generation) based on varying numbers of immediately preceding ancestral generations. Prediction accuracy of EBV or GEBV was assessed as the correlation between EBV and phenotypes adjusted for fixed effects, divided by the square root of trait heritability. The optimal number of training generations that resulted in the greatest prediction accuracy of GEBV was determined for each trait. The relationship between optimal number of training generations and heritability was investigated. On average, accuracies were higher with the BayesB model than with PBLUP. Prediction accuracies of GEBV increased as the number of closely-related ancestral generations included in the training set increased, but reached an asymptote or slightly decreased when distant ancestral generations were used in the training set. The optimal number of training generations was 4 or more for high heritability traits but less than that for low heritability traits. For less heritable traits, limiting the training datasets to individuals closely related to the validation population resulted in the best predictions. The effect of adding distant ancestral generations in the training set on prediction accuracy differed between traits and the optimal number of necessary training generations is associated with the heritability of traits.

ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.

PubMed

Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

2012-01-01

Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model.

A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2007-01-01

A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

MDOT Pavement Management System : Prediction Models and Feedback System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-10-01

As a primary component of a Pavement Management System (PMS), prediction models are crucial for one or more of the following analyses: : maintenance planning, budgeting, life-cycle analysis, multi-year optimization of maintenance works program, and a...

Physiologically Based Absorption Modeling to Design Extended-Release Clinical Products for an Ester Prodrug.

PubMed

Ding, Xuan; Day, Jeffrey S; Sperry, David C

2016-11-01

Absorption modeling has demonstrated its great value in modern drug product development due to its utility in understanding and predicting in vivo performance. In this case, we integrated physiologically based modeling in the development processes to effectively design extended-release (ER) clinical products for an ester prodrug LY545694. By simulating the trial results of immediate-release products, we delineated complex pharmacokinetics due to prodrug conversion and established an absorption model to describe the clinical observations. This model suggested the prodrug has optimal biopharmaceutical properties to warrant developing an ER product. Subsequently, we incorporated release profiles of prototype ER tablets into the absorption model to simulate the in vivo performance of these products observed in an exploratory trial. The models suggested that the absorption of these ER tablets was lower than the IR products because the extended release from the formulations prevented the drug from taking advantage of the optimal absorption window. Using these models, we formed a strategy to optimize the ER product to minimize the impact of the absorption window limitation. Accurate prediction of the performance of these optimized products by modeling was confirmed in a third clinical trial.

Practical approach to subject-specific estimation of knee joint contact force

PubMed Central

Knarr, Brian A.; Higginson, Jill S.

2015-01-01

Compressive forces experienced at the knee can significantly contribute to cartilage degeneration. Musculoskeletal models enable predictions of the internal forces experienced at the knee, but validation is often not possible, as experimental data detailing loading at the knee joint is limited. Recently available data reporting compressive knee force through direct measurement using instrumented total knee replacements offer a unique opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of models. Previous studies have highlighted the importance of subject-specificity in increasing the accuracy of model predictions; however, these techniques may be unrealistic outside of a research setting. Therefore, the goal of our work was to identify a practical approach for accurate prediction of tibiofemoral knee contact force (KCF). Four methods for prediction of knee contact force were compared: (1) standard static optimization, (2) uniform muscle coordination weighting, (3) subject-specific muscle coordination weighting and (4) subject-specific strength adjustments. Walking trials for three subjects with instrumented knee replacements were used to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Predictions utilizing subject-specific muscle coordination weighting yielded the best agreement with experimental data, however this method required in vivo data for weighting factor calibration. Including subject-specific strength adjustments improved models’ predictions compared to standard static optimization, with errors in peak KCF less than 0.5 body weight for all subjects. Overall, combining clinical assessments of muscle strength with standard tools available in the OpenSim software package, such as inverse kinematics and static optimization, appears to be a practical method for predicting joint contact force that can be implemented for many applications. PMID:25952546

Nontangent, Developed Contour Bulkheads for a Single-Stage Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, K. Chauncey; Lepsch, Roger A., Jr.

2000-01-01

Dry weights for single-stage launch vehicles that incorporate nontangent, developed contour bulkheads are estimated and compared to a baseline vehicle with 1.414 aspect ratio ellipsoidal bulkheads. Weights, volumes, and heights of optimized bulkhead designs are computed using a preliminary design bulkhead analysis code. The dry weights of vehicles that incorporate the optimized bulkheads are predicted using a vehicle weights and sizing code. Two optimization approaches are employed. A structural-level method, where the vehicle's three major bulkhead regions are optimized separately and then incorporated into a model for computation of the vehicle dry weight, predicts a reduction of4365 lb (2.2 %) from the 200,679-lb baseline vehicle dry weight. In the second, vehicle-level, approach, the vehicle dry weight is the objective function for the optimization. For the vehicle-level analysis, modified bulkhead designs are analyzed and incorporated into the weights model for computation of a dry weight. The optimizer simultaneously manipulates design variables for all three bulkheads to reduce the dry weight. The vehicle-level analysis predicts a dry weight reduction of 5129 lb, a 2.6% reduction from the baseline weight. Based on these results, nontangent, developed contour bulkheads may provide substantial weight savings for single stage vehicles.

Rapid Method Development in Hydrophilic Interaction Liquid Chromatography for Pharmaceutical Analysis Using a Combination of Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships and Design of Experiments.

PubMed

Taraji, Maryam; Haddad, Paul R; Amos, Ruth I J; Talebi, Mohammad; Szucs, Roman; Dolan, John W; Pohl, Chris A

2017-02-07

A design-of-experiment (DoE) model was developed, able to describe the retention times of a mixture of pharmaceutical compounds in hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) under all possible combinations of acetonitrile content, salt concentration, and mobile-phase pH with R 2 > 0.95. Further, a quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) model was developed to predict retention times for new analytes, based only on their chemical structures, with a root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) as low as 0.81%. A compound classification based on the concept of similarity was applied prior to QSRR modeling. Finally, we utilized a combined QSRR-DoE approach to propose an optimal design space in a quality-by-design (QbD) workflow to facilitate the HILIC method development. The mathematical QSRR-DoE model was shown to be highly predictive when applied to an independent test set of unseen compounds in unseen conditions with a RMSEP value of 5.83%. The QSRR-DoE computed retention time of pharmaceutical test analytes and subsequently calculated separation selectivity was used to optimize the chromatographic conditions for efficient separation of targets. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the risk of uncertainty in the model's prediction, and to define the design space where the desired quality criterion was met. Experimental realization of peak selectivity between targets under the selected optimal working conditions confirmed the theoretical predictions. These results demonstrate how discovery of optimal conditions for the separation of new analytes can be accelerated by the use of appropriate theoretical tools.

3D Protein structure prediction with genetic tabu search algorithm

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Protein structure prediction (PSP) has important applications in different fields, such as drug design, disease prediction, and so on. In protein structure prediction, there are two important issues. The first one is the design of the structure model and the second one is the design of the optimization technology. Because of the complexity of the realistic protein structure, the structure model adopted in this paper is a simplified model, which is called off-lattice AB model. After the structure model is assumed, optimization technology is needed for searching the best conformation of a protein sequence based on the assumed structure model. However, PSP is an NP-hard problem even if the simplest model is assumed. Thus, many algorithms have been developed to solve the global optimization problem. In this paper, a hybrid algorithm, which combines genetic algorithm (GA) and tabu search (TS) algorithm, is developed to complete this task. Results In order to develop an efficient optimization algorithm, several improved strategies are developed for the proposed genetic tabu search algorithm. The combined use of these strategies can improve the efficiency of the algorithm. In these strategies, tabu search introduced into the crossover and mutation operators can improve the local search capability, the adoption of variable population size strategy can maintain the diversity of the population, and the ranking selection strategy can improve the possibility of an individual with low energy value entering into next generation. Experiments are performed with Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences. Experimental results show that the lowest energy obtained by the proposed GATS algorithm is lower than that obtained by previous methods. Conclusions The hybrid algorithm has the advantages from both genetic algorithm and tabu search algorithm. It makes use of the advantage of multiple search points in genetic algorithm, and can overcome poor hill-climbing capability in the conventional genetic algorithm by using the flexible memory functions of TS. Compared with some previous algorithms, GATS algorithm has better performance in global optimization and can predict 3D protein structure more effectively. PMID:20522256

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deline, C.

Computer modeling is able to predict the performance of distributed power electronics (microinverters, power optimizers) in PV systems. However, details about partial shade and other mismatch must be known in order to give the model accurate information to go on. This talk will describe recent updates in NREL’s System Advisor Model program to model partial shading losses with and without distributed power electronics, along with experimental validation results. Computer modeling is able to predict the performance of distributed power electronics (microinverters, power optimizers) in PV systems. However, details about partial shade and other mismatch must be known in order tomore » give the model accurate information to go on. This talk will describe recent updates in NREL’s System Advisor Model program to model partial shading losses.« less

Improved prediction of residue flexibility by embedding optimized amino acid grouping into RSA-based linear models.

PubMed

Zhang, Hua; Kurgan, Lukasz

2014-12-01

Knowledge of protein flexibility is vital for deciphering the corresponding functional mechanisms. This knowledge would help, for instance, in improving computational drug design and refinement in homology-based modeling. We propose a new predictor of the residue flexibility, which is expressed by B-factors, from protein chains that use local (in the chain) predicted (or native) relative solvent accessibility (RSA) and custom-derived amino acid (AA) alphabets. Our predictor is implemented as a two-stage linear regression model that uses RSA-based space in a local sequence window in the first stage and a reduced AA pair-based space in the second stage as the inputs. This method is easy to comprehend explicit linear form in both stages. Particle swarm optimization was used to find an optimal reduced AA alphabet to simplify the input space and improve the prediction performance. The average correlation coefficients between the native and predicted B-factors measured on a large benchmark dataset are improved from 0.65 to 0.67 when using the native RSA values and from 0.55 to 0.57 when using the predicted RSA values. Blind tests that were performed on two independent datasets show consistent improvements in the average correlation coefficients by a modest value of 0.02 for both native and predicted RSA-based predictions.

Multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC): A new method for improving measurement selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, C.; Ferre, P. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic models are developed, tested, and refined based on the ability of those models to explain available hydrologic data. The optimization of model performance based upon mismatch between model outputs and real world observations has been extensively studied. However, identification of plausible models is sensitive not only to the models themselves - including model structure and model parameters - but also to the location, timing, type, and number of observations used in model calibration. Therefore, careful selection of hydrologic observations has the potential to significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models. In this research, we seek to reduce prediction uncertainty through optimization of the data collection process. A new tool - multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC) - was developed to address this challenge. In this approach, multiple hydrologic models are developed and treated as competing hypotheses. Potential new data are then evaluated on their ability to discriminate between competing hypotheses. MMA-DDC is well-suited for use in recursive mode, in which new observations are continuously used in the optimization of subsequent observations. This new approach was applied to a synthetic solute transport experiment, in which ranges of parameter values constitute the multiple hydrologic models, and model predictions are calculated using likelihood-weighted model averaging. MMA-DDC was used to determine the optimal location, timing, number, and type of new observations. From comparison with an exhaustive search of all possible observation sequences, we find that MMA-DDC consistently selects observations which lead to the highest reduction in model prediction uncertainty. We conclude that using MMA-DDC to evaluate potential observations may significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models while reducing the cost associated with collecting new data.

Improved GSO Optimized ESN Soft-Sensor Model of Flotation Process Based on Multisource Heterogeneous Information Fusion

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie-sheng; Han, Shuang; Shen, Na-na

2014-01-01

For predicting the key technology indicators (concentrate grade and tailings recovery rate) of flotation process, an echo state network (ESN) based fusion soft-sensor model optimized by the improved glowworm swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm is proposed. Firstly, the color feature (saturation and brightness) and texture features (angular second moment, sum entropy, inertia moment, etc.) based on grey-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) are adopted to describe the visual characteristics of the flotation froth image. Then the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) method is used to reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional input vector composed by the flotation froth image characteristics and process datum and extracts the nonlinear principal components in order to reduce the ESN dimension and network complex. The ESN soft-sensor model of flotation process is optimized by the GSO algorithm with congestion factor. Simulation results show that the model has better generalization and prediction accuracy to meet the online soft-sensor requirements of the real-time control in the flotation process. PMID:24982935

Advanced fast 3D DSA model development and calibration for design technology co-optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Kafai; Meliorisz, Balint; Muelders, Thomas; Welling, Ulrich; Stock, Hans-Jürgen; Marokkey, Sajan; Demmerle, Wolfgang; Liu, Chi-Chun; Chi, Cheng; Guo, Jing

2017-04-01

Direct Optimization (DO) of a 3D DSA model is a more optimal approach to a DTCO study in terms of accuracy and speed compared to a Cahn Hilliard Equation solver. DO's shorter run time (10X to 100X faster) and linear scaling makes it scalable to the area required for a DTCO study. However, the lack of temporal data output, as opposed to prior art, requires a new calibration method. The new method involves a specific set of calibration patterns. The calibration pattern's design is extremely important when temporal data is absent to obtain robust model parameters. A model calibrated to a Hybrid DSA system with a set of device-relevant constructs indicates the effectiveness of using nontemporal data. Preliminary model prediction using programmed defects on chemo-epitaxy shows encouraging results and agree qualitatively well with theoretical predictions from a strong segregation theory.

A validated computational model for the design of surface textures in full-film lubricated sliding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuh, Jonathon; Lee, Yong Hoon; Allison, James; Ewoldt, Randy

2016-11-01

Our recent experimental work showed that asymmetry is needed for surface textures to decrease friction in full-film lubricated sliding (thrust bearings) with Newtonian fluids; textures reduce the shear load and produce a separating normal force. The sign of the separating normal force is not predicted by previous 1-D theories. Here we model the flow with the Reynolds equation in cylindrical coordinates, numerically implemented with a pseudo-spectral method. The model predictions match experiments, rationalize the sign of the normal force, and allow for design of surface texture geometry. To minimize sliding friction with angled cylindrical textures, an optimal angle of asymmetry β exists. The optimal angle depends on the film thickness but not the sliding velocity within the applicable range of the model. The model has also been used to optimize generalized surface texture topography while satisfying manufacturability constraints.

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a sediment transport model of China's largest freshwater lake: spatial and temporal effects.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoling; Lu, Jianzhong; Zhang, Wei

2015-12-01

Numerical models are important tools that are used in studies of sediment dynamics in inland and coastal waters, and these models can now benefit from the use of integrated remote sensing observations. This study explores a scheme for assimilating remotely sensed suspended sediment (from charge-coupled device (CCD) images obtained from the Huanjing (HJ) satellite) into a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Optimal interpolation is used as the assimilation method, and model predictions are obtained by combining four remote sensing images. The parameters for optimal interpolation are determined through a series of assimilation experiments evaluating the sediment predictions based on field measurements. The model with assimilation of remotely sensed sediment reduces the root-mean-square error of the predicted sediment concentrations by 39.4% relative to the model without assimilation, demonstrating the effectiveness of the assimilation scheme. The spatial effect of assimilation is explored by comparing model predictions with remotely sensed sediment, revealing that the model with assimilation generates reasonable spatial distribution patterns of suspended sediment. The temporal effect of assimilation on the model's predictive capabilities varies spatially, with an average temporal effect of approximately 10.8 days. The current velocities which dominate the rate and direction of sediment transport most likely result in spatial differences in the temporal effect of assimilation on model predictions.

Using "big data" to optimally model hydrology and water quality across expansive regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, E.A.; Cook, J.B.; Conrads, P.A.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a new divide and conquer approach that leverages big environmental data, utilizing all available categorical and time-series data without subjectivity, to empirically model hydrologic and water-quality behaviors across expansive regions. The approach decomposes large, intractable problems into smaller ones that are optimally solved; decomposes complex signals into behavioral components that are easier to model with "sub- models"; and employs a sequence of numerically optimizing algorithms that include time-series clustering, nonlinear, multivariate sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks, and classification for selecting the best sub-models to make predictions at new sites. This approach has many advantages over traditional modeling approaches, including being faster and less expensive, more comprehensive in its use of available data, and more accurate in representing a system's physical processes. This paper describes the application of the approach to model groundwater levels in Florida, stream temperatures across Western Oregon and Wisconsin, and water depths in the Florida Everglades. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Highly predictive and interpretable models for PAMPA permeability.

PubMed

Sun, Hongmao; Nguyen, Kimloan; Kerns, Edward; Yan, Zhengyin; Yu, Kyeong Ri; Shah, Pranav; Jadhav, Ajit; Xu, Xin

2017-02-01

Cell membrane permeability is an important determinant for oral absorption and bioavailability of a drug molecule. An in silico model predicting drug permeability is described, which is built based on a large permeability dataset of 7488 compound entries or 5435 structurally unique molecules measured by the same lab using parallel artificial membrane permeability assay (PAMPA). On the basis of customized molecular descriptors, the support vector regression (SVR) model trained with 4071 compounds with quantitative data is able to predict the remaining 1364 compounds with the qualitative data with an area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) of 0.90. The support vector classification (SVC) model trained with half of the whole dataset comprised of both the quantitative and the qualitative data produced accurate predictions to the remaining data with the AUC-ROC of 0.88. The results suggest that the developed SVR model is highly predictive and provides medicinal chemists a useful in silico tool to facilitate design and synthesis of novel compounds with optimal drug-like properties, and thus accelerate the lead optimization in drug discovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeCastro, Jonathan A.

2006-01-01

An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

Optimized endogenous post-stratification in forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson

2012-01-01

An example of endogenous post-stratification is the use of remote sensing data with a sample of ground data to build a logistic regression model to predict the probability that a plot is forested and using the predicted probabilities to form categories for post-stratification. An optimized endogenous post-stratified estimator of the proportion of forest has been...

Guidelines 13 and 14—Prediction uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Tiedeman, Claire

2005-01-01

An advantage of using optimization for model development and calibration is that optimization provides methods for evaluating and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Both deterministic and statistical methods can be used. Guideline 13 discusses using regression and post-audits, which we classify as deterministic methods. Guideline 14 discusses inferential statistics and Monte Carlo methods, which we classify as statistical methods.

Target and Tissue Selectivity Prediction by Integrated Mechanistic Pharmacokinetic-Target Binding and Quantitative Structure Activity Modeling.

PubMed

Vlot, Anna H C; de Witte, Wilhelmus E A; Danhof, Meindert; van der Graaf, Piet H; van Westen, Gerard J P; de Lange, Elizabeth C M

2017-12-04

Selectivity is an important attribute of effective and safe drugs, and prediction of in vivo target and tissue selectivity would likely improve drug development success rates. However, a lack of understanding of the underlying (pharmacological) mechanisms and availability of directly applicable predictive methods complicates the prediction of selectivity. We explore the value of combining physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling with quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling to predict the influence of the target dissociation constant (K D ) and the target dissociation rate constant on target and tissue selectivity. The K D values of CB1 ligands in the ChEMBL database are predicted by QSAR random forest (RF) modeling for the CB1 receptor and known off-targets (TRPV1, mGlu5, 5-HT1a). Of these CB1 ligands, rimonabant, CP-55940, and Δ 8 -tetrahydrocanabinol, one of the active ingredients of cannabis, were selected for simulations of target occupancy for CB1, TRPV1, mGlu5, and 5-HT1a in three brain regions, to illustrate the principles of the combined PBPK-QSAR modeling. Our combined PBPK and target binding modeling demonstrated that the optimal values of the K D and k off for target and tissue selectivity were dependent on target concentration and tissue distribution kinetics. Interestingly, if the target concentration is high and the perfusion of the target site is low, the optimal K D value is often not the lowest K D value, suggesting that optimization towards high drug-target affinity can decrease the benefit-risk ratio. The presented integrative structure-pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling provides an improved understanding of tissue and target selectivity.

Optimization of succinic acid fermentation with Actinobacillus succinogenes by response surface methodology (RSM)*

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yun-jian; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Yu-xiu; Wang, Dan; Xing, Jian-min

2012-01-01

Succinic acid is considered as an important platform chemical. Succinic acid fermentation with Actinobacillus succinogenes strain BE-1 was optimized by central composite design (CCD) using a response surface methodology (RSM). The optimized production of succinic acid was predicted and the interactive effects between glucose, yeast extract, and magnesium carbonate were investigated. As a result, a model for predicting the concentration of succinic acid production was developed. The accuracy of the model was confirmed by the analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the validity was further proved by verification experiments showing that percentage errors between actual and predicted values varied from 3.02% to 6.38%. In addition, it was observed that the interactive effect between yeast extract and magnesium carbonate was statistically significant. In conclusion, RSM is an effective and useful method for optimizing the medium components and investigating the interactive effects, and can provide valuable information for succinic acid scale-up fermentation using A. succinogenes strain BE-1. PMID:22302423

Nanoscale Fe/Ag particles activated persulfate: optimization using response surface methodology.

PubMed

Silveira, Jefferson E; Barreto-Rodrigues, Marcio; Cardoso, Tais O; Pliego, Gema; Munoz, Macarena; Zazo, Juan A; Casas, José A

2017-05-01

This work studied the bimetallic nanoparticles Fe-Ag (nZVI-Ag) activated persulfate (PS) in aqueous solution using response surface methodology. The Box-Behnken design (BBD) was employed to optimize three parameters (nZVI-Ag dose, reaction temperature, and PS concentration) using 4-chlorophenol (4-CP) as the target pollutant. The synthesis of nZVI-Ag particles was carried out through a reduction of FeCl 2 with NaBH 4 followed by reductive deposition of Ag. The catalyst was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area. The BBD was considered a satisfactory model to optimize the process. Confirmatory tests were carried out using predicted and experimental values under the optimal conditions (50 mg L -1 nZVI-Ag, 21 mM PS at 57 °C) and the complete removal of 4-CP achieved experimentally was successfully predicted by the model, whereas the mineralization degree predicted (90%) was slightly overestimated against the measured data (83%).

Model-Based Individualized Treatment of Chemotherapeutics: Bayesian Population Modeling and Dose Optimization

PubMed Central

Jayachandran, Devaraj; Laínez-Aguirre, José; Rundell, Ann; Vik, Terry; Hannemann, Robert; Reklaitis, Gintaras; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

2015-01-01

6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) is one of the key drugs in the treatment of many pediatric cancers, auto immune diseases and inflammatory bowel disease. 6-MP is a prodrug, converted to an active metabolite 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) through enzymatic reaction involving thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT). Pharmacogenomic variation observed in the TPMT enzyme produces a significant variation in drug response among the patient population. Despite 6-MP’s widespread use and observed variation in treatment response, efforts at quantitative optimization of dose regimens for individual patients are limited. In addition, research efforts devoted on pharmacogenomics to predict clinical responses are proving far from ideal. In this work, we present a Bayesian population modeling approach to develop a pharmacological model for 6-MP metabolism in humans. In the face of scarcity of data in clinical settings, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction approach is used to minimize the parameter space. For accurate estimation of sensitive parameters, robust optimal experimental design based on D-optimality criteria was exploited. With the patient-specific model, a model predictive control algorithm is used to optimize the dose scheduling with the objective of maintaining the 6-TGN concentration within its therapeutic window. More importantly, for the first time, we show how the incorporation of information from different levels of biological chain-of response (i.e. gene expression-enzyme phenotype-drug phenotype) plays a critical role in determining the uncertainty in predicting therapeutic target. The model and the control approach can be utilized in the clinical setting to individualize 6-MP dosing based on the patient’s ability to metabolize the drug instead of the traditional standard-dose-for-all approach. PMID:26226448

A prediction model of drug-induced ototoxicity developed by an optimal support vector machine (SVM) method.

PubMed

Zhou, Shu; Li, Guo-Bo; Huang, Lu-Yi; Xie, Huan-Zhang; Zhao, Ying-Lan; Chen, Yu-Zong; Li, Lin-Li; Yang, Sheng-Yong

2014-08-01

Drug-induced ototoxicity, as a toxic side effect, is an important issue needed to be considered in drug discovery. Nevertheless, current experimental methods used to evaluate drug-induced ototoxicity are often time-consuming and expensive, indicating that they are not suitable for a large-scale evaluation of drug-induced ototoxicity in the early stage of drug discovery. We thus, in this investigation, established an effective computational prediction model of drug-induced ototoxicity using an optimal support vector machine (SVM) method, GA-CG-SVM. Three GA-CG-SVM models were developed based on three training sets containing agents bearing different risk levels of drug-induced ototoxicity. For comparison, models based on naïve Bayesian (NB) and recursive partitioning (RP) methods were also used on the same training sets. Among all the prediction models, the GA-CG-SVM model II showed the best performance, which offered prediction accuracies of 85.33% and 83.05% for two independent test sets, respectively. Overall, the good performance of the GA-CG-SVM model II indicates that it could be used for the prediction of drug-induced ototoxicity in the early stage of drug discovery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the FLORIS wind plant model for compatibility with gradient-based optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, Jared J.; Gebraad, Pieter MO; Ning, Andrew

The FLORIS (FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady-state) model, a parametric wind turbine wake model that predicts steady-state wake characteristics based on wind turbine position and yaw angle, was developed for optimization of control settings and turbine locations. This article provides details on changes made to the FLORIS model to make the model more suitable for gradient-based optimization. Changes to the FLORIS model were made to remove discontinuities and add curvature to regions of non-physical zero gradient. Exact gradients for the FLORIS model were obtained using algorithmic differentiation. A set of three case studies demonstrate that using exact gradients withmore » gradient-based optimization reduces the number of function calls by several orders of magnitude. The case studies also show that adding curvature improves convergence behavior, allowing gradient-based optimization algorithms used with the FLORIS model to more reliably find better solutions to wind farm optimization problems.« less

Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2016-12-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability in the Greater of Africa (GHA). The expected impacts of climate variability and change on water, agriculture, and food resources in GHA underscore the importance of reliable and accurate seasonal climate predictions. The study evaluated different model selection criteria which included the Coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the Fisher information approximation (FIA). A forecast scheme based on the optimal model was developed to predict the October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The predictability of GHA rainfall based on ENSO was quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The study identified FIA as the optimal model selection criterion. However, complex model selection criteria (FIA followed by BIC) performed better compared to simple approach (R2 and AIC). Notably, operational seasonal rainfall predictions over the GHA makes of simple model selection procedures e.g. R2. Rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during OND and MAM seasons. El Nino typically leads to wetter conditions during OND and drier conditions during MAM. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for OND and MAM seasons. Analysis based on contingency tables shows higher predictability of OND rainfall with the use of ENSO indices derived from the Pacific and Indian Oceans sea surfaces showing significant improvement during OND season. The predictability based on ENSO for OND rainfall is robust on a decadal scale compared to MAM. An ENSO-based scheme based on an optimal model selection criterion can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions over GHA. This study concludes that the negative phase of ENSO (La Niña) leads to dry conditions while the positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) anticipates enhanced wet conditions

Real data assimilation for optimization of frictional parameters and prediction of afterslip in the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake inferred from slip velocity by an adjoint method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kano, Masayuki; Miyazaki, Shin'ichi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Hiyoshi, Yoshihisa; Ito, Kosuke; Hirahara, Kazuro

2015-10-01

Data assimilation is a technique that optimizes the parameters used in a numerical model with a constraint of model dynamics achieving the better fit to observations. Optimized parameters can be utilized for the subsequent prediction with a numerical model and predicted physical variables are presumably closer to observations that will be available in the future, at least, comparing to those obtained without the optimization through data assimilation. In this work, an adjoint data assimilation system is developed for optimizing a relatively large number of spatially inhomogeneous frictional parameters during the afterslip period in which the physical constraints are a quasi-dynamic equation of motion and a laboratory derived rate and state dependent friction law that describe the temporal evolution of slip velocity at subduction zones. The observed variable is estimated slip velocity on the plate interface. Before applying this method to the real data assimilation for the afterslip of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, a synthetic data assimilation experiment is conducted to examine the feasibility of optimizing the frictional parameters in the afterslip area. It is confirmed that the current system is capable of optimizing the frictional parameters A-B, A and L by adopting the physical constraint based on a numerical model if observations capture the acceleration and decaying phases of slip on the plate interface. On the other hand, it is unlikely to constrain the frictional parameters in the region where the amplitude of afterslip is less than 1.0 cm d-1. Next, real data assimilation for the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake is conducted to incorporate slip velocity data inferred from time dependent inversion of Global Navigation Satellite System time-series. The optimized values of A-B, A and L are O(10 kPa), O(102 kPa) and O(10 mm), respectively. The optimized frictional parameters yield the better fit to the observations and the better prediction skill of slip velocity afterwards. Also, further experiment shows the importance of employing a fine-mesh model. It will contribute to the further understanding of the frictional properties on plate interfaces and lead to the forecasting system that provides useful information on the possibility of consequent earthquakes.

A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

1974-01-01

An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

Comparative Analysis of Soft Computing Models in Prediction of Bending Rigidity of Cotton Woven Fabrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guruprasad, R.; Behera, B. K.

2015-10-01

Quantitative prediction of fabric mechanical properties is an essential requirement for design engineering of textile and apparel products. In this work, the possibility of prediction of bending rigidity of cotton woven fabrics has been explored with the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and two hybrid methodologies, namely Neuro-genetic modeling and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) modeling. For this purpose, a set of cotton woven grey fabrics was desized, scoured and relaxed. The fabrics were then conditioned and tested for bending properties. With the database thus created, a neural network model was first developed using back propagation as the learning algorithm. The second model was developed by applying a hybrid learning strategy, in which genetic algorithm was first used as a learning algorithm to optimize the number of neurons and connection weights of the neural network. The Genetic algorithm optimized network structure was further allowed to learn using back propagation algorithm. In the third model, an ANFIS modeling approach was attempted to map the input-output data. The prediction performances of the models were compared and a sensitivity analysis was reported. The results show that the prediction by neuro-genetic and ANFIS models were better in comparison with that of back propagation neural network model.

Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmon, David

2018-03-01

In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM

PubMed Central

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei

2018-01-01

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. PMID:29342942

Reserve design to maximize species persistence

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Laurel E. Travis

2008-01-01

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and...

Nonlinear Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Control for Energy Distribution of a Fuel Cell Powered Robot

PubMed Central

Chen, Qihong; Long, Rong; Quan, Shuhai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network predictive control strategy to optimize power distribution for a fuel cell/ultracapacitor hybrid power system of a robot. We model the nonlinear power system by employing time variant auto-regressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX), and using recurrent neural network to represent the complicated coefficients of the ARMAX model. Because the dynamic of the system is viewed as operating- state- dependent time varying local linear behavior in this frame, a linear constrained model predictive control algorithm is developed to optimize the power splitting between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor. The proposed algorithm significantly simplifies implementation of the controller and can handle multiple constraints, such as limiting substantial fluctuation of fuel cell current. Experiment and simulation results demonstrate that the control strategy can optimally split power between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor, limit the change rate of the fuel cell current, and so as to extend the lifetime of the fuel cell. PMID:24707206

Piéron’s Law and Optimal Behavior in Perceptual Decision-Making

PubMed Central

van Maanen, Leendert; Grasman, Raoul P. P. P.; Forstmann, Birte U.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2012-01-01

Piéron’s Law is a psychophysical regularity in signal detection tasks that states that mean response times decrease as a power function of stimulus intensity. In this article, we extend Piéron’s Law to perceptual two-choice decision-making tasks, and demonstrate that the law holds as the discriminability between two competing choices is manipulated, even though the stimulus intensity remains constant. This result is consistent with predictions from a Bayesian ideal observer model. The model assumes that in order to respond optimally in a two-choice decision-making task, participants continually update the posterior probability of each response alternative, until the probability of one alternative crosses a criterion value. In addition to predictions for two-choice decision-making tasks, we extend the ideal observer model to predict Piéron’s Law in signal detection tasks. We conclude that Piéron’s Law is a general phenomenon that may be caused by optimality constraints. PMID:22232572

Gaussian processes with optimal kernel construction for neuro-degenerative clinical onset prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canas, Liane S.; Yvernault, Benjamin; Cash, David M.; Molteni, Erika; Veale, Tom; Benzinger, Tammie; Ourselin, Sébastien; Mead, Simon; Modat, Marc

2018-02-01

Gaussian Processes (GP) are a powerful tool to capture the complex time-variations of a dataset. In the context of medical imaging analysis, they allow a robust modelling even in case of highly uncertain or incomplete datasets. Predictions from GP are dependent of the covariance kernel function selected to explain the data variance. To overcome this limitation, we propose a framework to identify the optimal covariance kernel function to model the data.The optimal kernel is defined as a composition of base kernel functions used to identify correlation patterns between data points. Our approach includes a modified version of the Compositional Kernel Learning (CKL) algorithm, in which we score the kernel families using a new energy function that depends both the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the explained variance score. We applied the proposed framework to model the progression of neurodegenerative diseases over time, in particular the progression of autosomal dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease, and use it to predict the time to clinical onset of subjects carrying genetic mutation.

A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1990-01-01

A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

Predicting DPP-IV inhibitors with machine learning approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jie; Li, Chanjuan; Liu, Zhihong; Du, Jiewen; Ye, Jiming; Gu, Qiong; Xu, Jun

2017-04-01

Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) is a promising Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) drug target. DPP-IV inhibitors prolong the action of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and gastric inhibitory peptide (GIP), improve glucose homeostasis without weight gain, edema, and hypoglycemia. However, the marketed DPP-IV inhibitors have adverse effects such as nasopharyngitis, headache, nausea, hypersensitivity, skin reactions and pancreatitis. Therefore, it is still expected for novel DPP-IV inhibitors with minimal adverse effects. The scaffolds of existing DPP-IV inhibitors are structurally diversified. This makes it difficult to build virtual screening models based upon the known DPP-IV inhibitor libraries using conventional QSAR approaches. In this paper, we report a new strategy to predict DPP-IV inhibitors with machine learning approaches involving naïve Bayesian (NB) and recursive partitioning (RP) methods. We built 247 machine learning models based on 1307 known DPP-IV inhibitors with optimized molecular properties and topological fingerprints as descriptors. The overall predictive accuracies of the optimized models were greater than 80%. An external test set, composed of 65 recently reported compounds, was employed to validate the optimized models. The results demonstrated that both NB and RP models have a good predictive ability based on different combinations of descriptors. Twenty "good" and twenty "bad" structural fragments for DPP-IV inhibitors can also be derived from these models for inspiring the new DPP-IV inhibitor scaffold design.

A hybrid PSO-SVM-based method for predicting the friction coefficient between aircraft tire and coating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Liwei; Li, Chengwei

2017-02-01

A hybrid PSO-SVM-based model is proposed to predict the friction coefficient between aircraft tire and coating. The presented hybrid model combines a support vector machine (SVM) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. SVM has been adopted to solve regression problems successfully. Its regression accuracy is greatly related to optimizing parameters such as the regularization constant C , the parameter gamma γ corresponding to RBF kernel and the epsilon parameter \\varepsilon in the SVM training procedure. However, the friction coefficient which is predicted based on SVM has yet to be explored between aircraft tire and coating. The experiment reveals that drop height and tire rotational speed are the factors affecting friction coefficient. Bearing in mind, the friction coefficient can been predicted using the hybrid PSO-SVM-based model by the measured friction coefficient between aircraft tire and coating. To compare regression accuracy, a grid search (GS) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) are used to optimize the relevant parameters (C , γ and \\varepsilon ), respectively. The regression accuracy could be reflected by the coefficient of determination ({{R}2} ). The result shows that the hybrid PSO-RBF-SVM-based model has better accuracy compared with the GS-RBF-SVM- and GA-RBF-SVM-based models. The agreement of this model (PSO-RBF-SVM) with experiment data confirms its good performance.

Distribution drivers and physiological responses in geothermal bryophyte communities.

PubMed

García, Estefanía Llaneza; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Graves, Camille; Shortlidge, Erin E; Eppley, Sarah M

2016-04-01

Our ability to explain community structure rests on our ability to define the importance of ecological niches, including realized ecological niches, in shaping communities, but few studies of plant distributions have combined predictive models with physiological measures. Using field surveys and statistical modeling, we predicted distribution drivers in geothermal bryophyte (moss) communities of Lassen Volcanic National Park (California, USA). In the laboratory, we used drying and rewetting experiments to test whether the strong species-specific effects of relative humidity on distributions predicted by the models were correlated with physiological characters. We found that the three most common bryophytes in geothermal communities were significantly affected by three distinct distribution drivers: temperature, light, and relative humidity. Aulacomnium palustre, whose distribution is significantly affected by relative humidity according to our model, and which occurs in high-humidity sites, showed extreme signs of stress after drying and never recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Campylopus introflexus, whose distribution is not affected by humidity according to our model, was able to maintain optimal values of PSII efficiency for 48 hr at 50% water loss and recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Our results suggest that species-specific environmental stressors tightly constrain the ecological niches of geothermal bryophytes. Tests of tolerance to drying in two bryophyte species corresponded with model predictions of the comparative importance of relative humidity as distribution drivers for these species. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Development of a Prediction Model Based on RBF Neural Network for Sheet Metal Fixture Locating Layout Design and Optimization.

PubMed

Wang, Zhongqi; Yang, Bo; Kang, Yonggang; Yang, Yuan

2016-01-01

Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method.

Development of a Prediction Model Based on RBF Neural Network for Sheet Metal Fixture Locating Layout Design and Optimization

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhongqi; Yang, Bo; Kang, Yonggang; Yang, Yuan

2016-01-01

Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method. PMID:27127499

Optimal firing rate estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paulin, M. G.; Hoffman, L. F.

2001-01-01

We define a measure for evaluating the quality of a predictive model of the behavior of a spiking neuron. This measure, information gain per spike (Is), indicates how much more information is provided by the model than if the prediction were made by specifying the neuron's average firing rate over the same time period. We apply a maximum Is criterion to optimize the performance of Gaussian smoothing filters for estimating neural firing rates. With data from bullfrog vestibular semicircular canal neurons and data from simulated integrate-and-fire neurons, the optimal bandwidth for firing rate estimation is typically similar to the average firing rate. Precise timing and average rate models are limiting cases that perform poorly. We estimate that bullfrog semicircular canal sensory neurons transmit in the order of 1 bit of stimulus-related information per spike.

Measuring the value of accurate link prediction for network seeding.

PubMed

Wei, Yijin; Spencer, Gwen

2017-01-01

The influence-maximization literature seeks small sets of individuals whose structural placement in the social network can drive large cascades of behavior. Optimization efforts to find the best seed set often assume perfect knowledge of the network topology. Unfortunately, social network links are rarely known in an exact way. When do seeding strategies based on less-than-accurate link prediction provide valuable insight? We introduce optimized-against-a-sample ([Formula: see text]) performance to measure the value of optimizing seeding based on a noisy observation of a network. Our computational study investigates [Formula: see text] under several threshold-spread models in synthetic and real-world networks. Our focus is on measuring the value of imprecise link information. The level of investment in link prediction that is strategic appears to depend closely on spread model: in some parameter ranges investments in improving link prediction can pay substantial premiums in cascade size. For other ranges, such investments would be wasted. Several trends were remarkably consistent across topologies.

Fish swarm intelligent to optimize real time monitoring of chips drying using machine vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrawan, Y.; Hawa, L. C.; Damayanti, R.

2018-03-01

This study attempted to apply machine vision-based chips drying monitoring system which is able to optimise the drying process of cassava chips. The objective of this study is to propose fish swarm intelligent (FSI) optimization algorithms to find the most significant set of image features suitable for predicting water content of cassava chips during drying process using artificial neural network model (ANN). Feature selection entails choosing the feature subset that maximizes the prediction accuracy of ANN. Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) was used in this study which consisted of prediction accuracy maximization and feature-subset size minimization. The results showed that the best feature subset i.e. grey mean, L(Lab) Mean, a(Lab) energy, red entropy, hue contrast, and grey homogeneity. The best feature subset has been tested successfully in ANN model to describe the relationship between image features and water content of cassava chips during drying process with R2 of real and predicted data was equal to 0.9.

An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae-Chul; Shin, Sung-Chul; Kim, Soo-Young

2015-07-01

The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface). The Response Surface Method (RSM) is generally used to predict the system performance in engineering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM). The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance), we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Lead Optimization. 1. Evaluation and Adaptation of GastroPlus To Predict Bioavailability of Medchem Series.

PubMed

Daga, Pankaj R; Bolger, Michael B; Haworth, Ian S; Clark, Robert D; Martin, Eric J

2018-03-05

When medicinal chemists need to improve bioavailability (%F) within a chemical series during lead optimization, they synthesize new series members with systematically modified properties mainly by following experience and general rules of thumb. More quantitative models that predict %F of proposed compounds from chemical structure alone have proven elusive. Global empirical %F quantitative structure-property (QSPR) models perform poorly, and projects have too little data to train local %F QSPR models. Mechanistic oral absorption and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models simulate the dissolution, absorption, systemic distribution, and clearance of a drug in preclinical species and humans. Attempts to build global PBPK models based purely on calculated inputs have not achieved the <2-fold average error needed to guide lead optimization. In this work, local GastroPlus PBPK models are instead customized for individual medchem series. The key innovation was building a local QSPR for a numerically fitted effective intrinsic clearance (CL loc ). All inputs are subsequently computed from structure alone, so the models can be applied in advance of synthesis. Training CL loc on the first 15-18 rat %F measurements gave adequate predictions, with clear improvements up to about 30 measurements, and incremental improvements beyond that.

Optimism as a predictor of the effects of laboratory-induced stress on fears and hope.

PubMed

Kimhi, Shaul; Eshel, Yohanan; Shahar, Eldad

2013-01-01

The objective of the current study is to explore optimism as a predictor of personal and collective fear, as well as hope, following laboratory-induced stress. Students (N = 107; 74 female, 33 male) were assigned randomly to either the experimental (stress--political violence video clip) or the control group (no-stress--nature video clip). Questionnaires of fear and hope were administered immediately after the experiment (Time 1) and 3 weeks later (Time 2). Structural equation modeling indicated the following: (a) Optimism significantly predicted both fear and hope in the stress group at Time 1, but not in the no-stress group. (b) Optimism predicted hope but not fear at Time 2 in the stress group. (c) Hope at Time 1 significantly predicted hope at Time 2, in both the stress and the no-stress groups. (d) Gender did not predict significantly fear at Time 1 in the stress group, despite a significant difference between genders. This study supports previous studies indicating that optimism plays an important role in people's coping with stress. However, based on our research the data raise the question of whether optimism, by itself, or environmental stress, by itself, may accurately predict stress response.

Modern modelling techniques are data hungry: a simulation study for predicting dichotomous endpoints.

PubMed

van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Austin, Peter C; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2014-12-22

Modern modelling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of binary outcomes than classical techniques. We aimed to study the predictive performance of different modelling techniques in relation to the effective sample size ("data hungriness"). We performed simulation studies based on three clinical cohorts: 1282 patients with head and neck cancer (with 46.9% 5 year survival), 1731 patients with traumatic brain injury (22.3% 6 month mortality) and 3181 patients with minor head injury (7.6% with CT scan abnormalities). We compared three relatively modern modelling techniques: support vector machines (SVM), neural nets (NN), and random forests (RF) and two classical techniques: logistic regression (LR) and classification and regression trees (CART). We created three large artificial databases with 20 fold, 10 fold and 6 fold replication of subjects, where we generated dichotomous outcomes according to different underlying models. We applied each modelling technique to increasingly larger development parts (100 repetitions). The area under the ROC-curve (AUC) indicated the performance of each model in the development part and in an independent validation part. Data hungriness was defined by plateauing of AUC and small optimism (difference between the mean apparent AUC and the mean validated AUC <0.01). We found that a stable AUC was reached by LR at approximately 20 to 50 events per variable, followed by CART, SVM, NN and RF models. Optimism decreased with increasing sample sizes and the same ranking of techniques. The RF, SVM and NN models showed instability and a high optimism even with >200 events per variable. Modern modelling techniques such as SVM, NN and RF may need over 10 times as many events per variable to achieve a stable AUC and a small optimism than classical modelling techniques such as LR. This implies that such modern techniques should only be used in medical prediction problems if very large data sets are available.

Development of an Uncertainty Quantification Predictive Chemical Reaction Model for Syngas Combustion

DOE PAGES

Slavinskaya, N. A.; Abbasi, M.; Starcke, J. H.; ...

2017-01-24

An automated data-centric infrastructure, Process Informatics Model (PrIMe), was applied to validation and optimization of a syngas combustion model. The Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2BDC) module of PrIMe was employed to discover the limits of parameter modifications based on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and consistency analysis of the model–data system and experimental data, including shock-tube ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds. Existing syngas reaction models are reviewed, and the selected kinetic data are described in detail. Empirical rules were developed and applied to evaluate the uncertainty bounds of the literature experimental data. Here, the initial H 2/CO reaction model, assembled frommore » 73 reactions and 17 species, was subjected to a B2BDC analysis. For this purpose, a dataset was constructed that included a total of 167 experimental targets and 55 active model parameters. Consistency analysis of the composed dataset revealed disagreement between models and data. Further analysis suggested that removing 45 experimental targets, 8 of which were self-inconsistent, would lead to a consistent dataset. This dataset was subjected to a correlation analysis, which highlights possible directions for parameter modification and model improvement. Additionally, several methods of parameter optimization were applied, some of them unique to the B2BDC framework. The optimized models demonstrated improved agreement with experiments compared to the initially assembled model, and their predictions for experiments not included in the initial dataset (i.e., a blind prediction) were investigated. The results demonstrate benefits of applying the B2BDC methodology for developing predictive kinetic models.« less

Development of an Uncertainty Quantification Predictive Chemical Reaction Model for Syngas Combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slavinskaya, N. A.; Abbasi, M.; Starcke, J. H.

An automated data-centric infrastructure, Process Informatics Model (PrIMe), was applied to validation and optimization of a syngas combustion model. The Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2BDC) module of PrIMe was employed to discover the limits of parameter modifications based on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and consistency analysis of the model–data system and experimental data, including shock-tube ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds. Existing syngas reaction models are reviewed, and the selected kinetic data are described in detail. Empirical rules were developed and applied to evaluate the uncertainty bounds of the literature experimental data. Here, the initial H 2/CO reaction model, assembled frommore » 73 reactions and 17 species, was subjected to a B2BDC analysis. For this purpose, a dataset was constructed that included a total of 167 experimental targets and 55 active model parameters. Consistency analysis of the composed dataset revealed disagreement between models and data. Further analysis suggested that removing 45 experimental targets, 8 of which were self-inconsistent, would lead to a consistent dataset. This dataset was subjected to a correlation analysis, which highlights possible directions for parameter modification and model improvement. Additionally, several methods of parameter optimization were applied, some of them unique to the B2BDC framework. The optimized models demonstrated improved agreement with experiments compared to the initially assembled model, and their predictions for experiments not included in the initial dataset (i.e., a blind prediction) were investigated. The results demonstrate benefits of applying the B2BDC methodology for developing predictive kinetic models.« less

A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

2017-06-01

Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

Review on applications of artificial intelligence methods for dam and reservoir-hydro-environment models.

PubMed

Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2018-05-01

Efficacious operation for dam and reservoir system could guarantee not only a defenselessness policy against natural hazard but also identify rule to meet the water demand. Successful operation of dam and reservoir systems to ensure optimal use of water resources could be unattainable without accurate and reliable simulation models. According to the highly stochastic nature of hydrologic parameters, developing accurate predictive model that efficiently mimic such a complex pattern is an increasing domain of research. During the last two decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been significantly utilized for attaining a robust modeling to handle different stochastic hydrological parameters. AI techniques have also shown considerable progress in finding optimal rules for reservoir operation. This review research explores the history of developing AI in reservoir inflow forecasting and prediction of evaporation from a reservoir as the major components of the reservoir simulation. In addition, critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of integrated AI simulation methods with optimization methods has been reported. Future research on the potential of utilizing new innovative methods based AI techniques for reservoir simulation and optimization models have also been discussed. Finally, proposal for the new mathematical procedure to accomplish the realistic evaluation of the whole optimization model performance (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices) has been recommended.

Predictive Scheduling for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainty of Load and User Behaviors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Bin; Huang, Rui; Wang, Yubo

2016-05-02

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimizationmore » module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.« less

Estimating West Nile virus transmission period in Pennsylvania using an optimized degree-day model.

PubMed

Chen, Shi; Blanford, Justine I; Fleischer, Shelby J; Hutchinson, Michael; Saunders, Michael C; Thomas, Matthew B

2013-07-01

Abstract We provide calibrated degree-day models to predict potential West Nile virus (WNV) transmission periods in Pennsylvania. We begin by following the standard approach of treating the degree-days necessary for the virus to complete the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and mosquito longevity as constants. This approach failed to adequately explain virus transmission periods based on mosquito surveillance data from 4 locations (Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Williamsport) in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. Allowing the EIP and adult longevity to vary across time and space improved model fit substantially. The calibrated models increase the ability to successfully predict the WNV transmission period in Pennsylvania to 70-80% compared to less than 30% in the uncalibrated model. Model validation showed the optimized models to be robust in 3 of the locations, although still showing errors for Philadelphia. These models and methods could provide useful tools to predict WNV transmission period from surveillance datasets, assess potential WNV risk, and make informed mosquito surveillance strategies.

BP-ANN for Fitting the Temperature-Germination Model and Its Application in Predicting Sowing Time and Region for Bermudagrass

PubMed Central

Pi, Erxu; Mantri, Nitin; Ngai, Sai Ming; Lu, Hongfei; Du, Liqun

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the most significant environmental factors that affects germination of grass seeds. Reliable prediction of the optimal temperature for seed germination is crucial for determining the suitable regions and favorable sowing timing for turf grass cultivation. In this study, a back-propagation-artificial-neural-network-aided dual quintic equation (BP-ANN-QE) model was developed to improve the prediction of the optimal temperature for seed germination. This BP-ANN-QE model was used to determine optimal sowing times and suitable regions for three Cynodon dactylon cultivars (C. dactylon, ‘Savannah’ and ‘Princess VII’). Prediction of the optimal temperature for these seeds was based on comprehensive germination tests using 36 day/night (high/low) temperature regimes (both ranging from 5/5 to 40/40°C with 5°C increments). Seed germination data from these temperature regimes were used to construct temperature-germination correlation models for estimating germination percentage with confidence intervals. Our tests revealed that the optimal high/low temperature regimes required for all the three bermudagrass cultivars are 30/5, 30/10, 35/5, 35/10, 35/15, 35/20, 40/15 and 40/20°C; constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 40°C inhibited the germination of all three cultivars. While comparing different simulating methods, including DQEM, Bisquare ANN-QE, and BP-ANN-QE in establishing temperature based germination percentage rules, we found that the R2 values of germination prediction function could be significantly improved from about 0.6940–0.8177 (DQEM approach) to 0.9439–0.9813 (BP-ANN-QE). These results indicated that our BP-ANN-QE model has better performance than the rests of the compared models. Furthermore, data of the national temperature grids generated from monthly-average temperature for 25 years were fit into these functions and we were able to map the germination percentage of these C. dactylon cultivars in the national scale of China, and suggested the optimum sowing regions and times for them. PMID:24349278

The Protective Effect of Agaricus blazei Murrill, Submerged Culture Using the Optimized Medium Composition, on Alcohol-Induced Liver Injury

PubMed Central

Wang, Hang; Li, Gang; Zhang, Wenyu; Han, Chunchao; Xu, Xin; Li, Yong-Ping

2014-01-01

Agaricus blazei Murrill (ABM), an edible mushroom native to Brazil, is widely used for nonprescript and medicinal purposes. Alcohol liver disease (ALD) is considered as a leading cause for a liver injury in modern dietary life, which can be developed by a prolonged or large intake of alcohol. In this study, the medium composition of ABM was optimized using response surface methodology for maximum mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) production. The model predicts to gain a maximal mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide at 1.047 g/100 mL, and 0.367 g/100 mL, respectively, when the potato is 29.88 g/100 mL, the glucose is 1.01 g/100 mL, and the bran is 1.02 g/100 mL. The verified experiments showed that the model was significantly consistent with the model prediction and that the trends of mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide were predicted by artificial neural network. After that, the optimized medium was used for the submerged culture of ABM. Then, alcohol-induced liver injury in mice model was used to examine the protective effect of ABM cultured using the optimized medium on the liver. And the hepatic histopathological observations showed that ABM had a relatively significant role in mice model, which had alcoholic liver damage. PMID:25114908

The protective effect of Agaricus blazei Murrill, submerged culture using the optimized medium composition, on alcohol-induced liver injury.

PubMed

Wang, Hang; Li, Gang; Zhang, Wenyu; Han, Chunchao; Xu, Xin; Li, Yong-Ping

2014-01-01

Agaricus blazei Murrill (ABM), an edible mushroom native to Brazil, is widely used for nonprescript and medicinal purposes. Alcohol liver disease (ALD) is considered as a leading cause for a liver injury in modern dietary life, which can be developed by a prolonged or large intake of alcohol. In this study, the medium composition of ABM was optimized using response surface methodology for maximum mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) production. The model predicts to gain a maximal mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide at 1.047 g/100 mL, and 0.367 g/100 mL, respectively, when the potato is 29.88 g/100 mL, the glucose is 1.01 g/100 mL, and the bran is 1.02 g/100 mL. The verified experiments showed that the model was significantly consistent with the model prediction and that the trends of mycelial biomass and extracellular polysaccharide were predicted by artificial neural network. After that, the optimized medium was used for the submerged culture of ABM. Then, alcohol-induced liver injury in mice model was used to examine the protective effect of ABM cultured using the optimized medium on the liver. And the hepatic histopathological observations showed that ABM had a relatively significant role in mice model, which had alcoholic liver damage.

Predicting Flood in Perlis Using Ant Colony Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadia Sabri, Syaidatul; Saian, Rizauddin

2017-06-01

Flood forecasting is widely being studied in order to reduce the effect of flood such as loss of property, loss of life and contamination of water supply. Usually flood occurs due to continuous heavy rainfall. This study used a variant of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm named the Ant-Miner to develop the classification prediction model to predict flood. However, since Ant-Miner only accept discrete data, while rainfall data is a time series data, a pre-processing steps is needed to discretize the rainfall data initially. This study used a technique called the Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) to convert the rainfall time series data into discrete data. As an addition, Simple K-Means algorithm was used to cluster the data produced by SAX. The findings show that the predictive accuracy of the classification prediction model is more than 80%.

ℓ p-Norm Multikernel Learning Approach for Stock Market Price Forecasting

PubMed Central

Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

2012-01-01

Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ 1-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ p-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ 1-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

Scaling of swim speed and stroke frequency in geometrically similar penguins: they swim optimally to minimize cost of transport

PubMed Central

Sato, Katsufumi; Shiomi, Kozue; Watanabe, Yuuki; Watanuki, Yutaka; Takahashi, Akinori; Ponganis, Paul J.

2010-01-01

It has been predicted that geometrically similar animals would swim at the same speed with stroke frequency scaling with mass−1/3. In the present study, morphological and behavioural data obtained from free-ranging penguins (seven species) were compared. Morphological measurements support the geometrical similarity. However, cruising speeds of 1.8–2.3 m s−1 were significantly related to mass0.08 and stroke frequencies were proportional to mass−0.29. These scaling relationships do not agree with the previous predictions for geometrically similar animals. We propose a theoretical model, considering metabolic cost, work against mechanical forces (drag and buoyancy), pitch angle and dive depth. This new model predicts that: (i) the optimal swim speed, which minimizes the energy cost of transport, is proportional to (basal metabolic rate/drag)1/3 independent of buoyancy, pitch angle and dive depth; (ii) the optimal speed is related to mass0.05; and (iii) stroke frequency is proportional to mass−0.28. The observed scaling relationships of penguins support these predictions, which suggest that breath-hold divers swam optimally to minimize the cost of transport, including mechanical and metabolic energy during dive. PMID:19906666

Key Technology of Real-Time Road Navigation Method Based on Intelligent Data Research

PubMed Central

Tang, Haijing; Liang, Yu; Huang, Zhongnan; Wang, Taoyi; He, Lin; Du, Yicong; Ding, Gangyi

2016-01-01

The effect of traffic flow prediction plays an important role in routing selection. Traditional traffic flow forecasting methods mainly include linear, nonlinear, neural network, and Time Series Analysis method. However, all of them have some shortcomings. This paper analyzes the existing algorithms on traffic flow prediction and characteristics of city traffic flow and proposes a road traffic flow prediction method based on transfer probability. This method first analyzes the transfer probability of upstream of the target road and then makes the prediction of the traffic flow at the next time by using the traffic flow equation. Newton Interior-Point Method is used to obtain the optimal value of parameters. Finally, it uses the proposed model to predict the traffic flow at the next time. By comparing the existing prediction methods, the proposed model has proven to have good performance. It can fast get the optimal value of parameters faster and has higher prediction accuracy, which can be used to make real-time traffic flow prediction. PMID:27872637

Optimal observation network design for conceptual model discrimination and uncertainty reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Hai V.; Tsai, Frank T.-C.

2016-02-01

This study expands the Box-Hill discrimination function to design an optimal observation network to discriminate conceptual models and, in turn, identify a most favored model. The Box-Hill discrimination function measures the expected decrease in Shannon entropy (for model identification) before and after the optimal design for one additional observation. This study modifies the discrimination function to account for multiple future observations that are assumed spatiotemporally independent and Gaussian-distributed. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to incorporate existing observation data and quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in the discrimination function. In addition, the BMA method is adopted to predict future observation data in a statistical sense. The design goal is to find optimal locations and least data via maximizing the Box-Hill discrimination function value subject to a posterior model probability threshold. The optimal observation network design is illustrated using a groundwater study in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to collect additional groundwater heads from USGS wells. The sources of uncertainty creating multiple groundwater models are geological architecture, boundary condition, and fault permeability architecture. Impacts of considering homoscedastic and heteroscedastic future observation data and the sources of uncertainties on potential observation areas are analyzed. Results show that heteroscedasticity should be considered in the design procedure to account for various sources of future observation uncertainty. After the optimal design is obtained and the corresponding data are collected for model updating, total variances of head predictions can be significantly reduced by identifying a model with a superior posterior model probability.

Modeling and optimization of reductive degradation of chloramphenicol in aqueous solution by zero-valent bimetallic nanoparticles.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Singh, Arun K; Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali

2012-07-01

The present study aims to investigate the individual and combined effects of temperature, pH, zero-valent bimetallic nanoparticles (ZVBMNPs) dose, and chloramphenicol (CP) concentration on the reductive degradation of CP using ZVBMNPs in aqueous medium. Iron-silver ZVBMNPs were synthesized. Batch experimental data were generated using a four-factor statistical experimental design. CP reduction by ZVBMNPs was optimized using the response surface modeling (RSM) and artificial neural network-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) approaches. The RSM and ANN methodologies were also compared for their predictive and generalization abilities using the same training and validation data set. Reductive by-products of CP were identified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry technique. The optimized process variables (RSM and ANN-GA approaches) yielded CP reduction capacity of 57.37 and 57.10 mg g(-1), respectively, as compared to the experimental value of 54.0 mg g(-1) with un-optimized variables. The ANN-GA and RSM methodologies yielded comparable results and helped to achieve a higher reduction (>6%) of CP by the ZVBMNPs as compared to the experimental value. The root mean squared error, relative standard error of prediction and correlation coefficient between the measured and model-predicted values of response variable were 1.34, 3.79, and 0.964 for RSM and 0.03, 0.07, and 0.999 for ANN models for the training and 1.39, 3.47, and 0.996 for RSM and 1.25, 3.11, and 0.990 for ANN models for the validation set. Predictive and generalization abilities of both the RSM and ANN models were comparable. The synthesized ZVBMNPs may be used for an efficient reductive removal of CP from the water.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

PubMed Central

Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L.D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H.C.

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge. PMID:27983501

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management.

PubMed

Russell, Robin E; Katz, Rachel A; Richgels, Katherine L D; Walsh, Daniel P; Grant, Evan H C

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

A framework for modeling emerging diseases to inform management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Statistical optimization of the phytoremediation of arsenic by Ludwigia octovalvis- in a pilot reed bed using response surface methodology (RSM) versus an artificial neural network (ANN).

PubMed

Titah, Harmin Sulistiyaning; Halmi, Mohd Izuan Effendi Bin; Abdullah, Siti Rozaimah Sheikh; Hasan, Hassimi Abu; Idris, Mushrifah; Anuar, Nurina

2018-06-07

In this study, the removal of arsenic (As) by plant, Ludwigia octovalvis, in a pilot reed bed was optimized. A Box-Behnken design was employed including a comparative analysis of both Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the prediction of maximum arsenic removal. The predicted optimum condition using the desirability function of both models was 39 mg kg -1 for the arsenic concentration in soil, an elapsed time of 42 days (the sampling day) and an aeration rate of 0.22 L/min, with the predicted values of arsenic removal by RSM and ANN being 72.6% and 71.4%, respectively. The validation of the predicted optimum point showed an actual arsenic removal of 70.6%. This was achieved with the deviation between the validation value and the predicted values being within 3.49% (RSM) and 1.87% (ANN). The performance evaluation of the RSM and ANN models showed that ANN performs better than RSM with a higher R 2 (0.97) close to 1.0 and very small Average Absolute Deviation (AAD) (0.02) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (0.004) values close to zero. Both models were appropriate for the optimization of arsenic removal with ANN demonstrating significantly higher predictive and fitting ability than RSM.

Clinical prediction model to identify vulnerable patients in ambulatory surgery: towards optimal medical decision-making.

PubMed

Mijderwijk, Herjan; Stolker, Robert Jan; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Klimek, Markus; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-09-01

Ambulatory surgery patients are at risk of adverse psychological outcomes such as anxiety, aggression, fatigue, and depression. We developed and validated a clinical prediction model to identify patients who were vulnerable to these psychological outcome parameters. We prospectively assessed 383 mixed ambulatory surgery patients for psychological vulnerability, defined as the presence of anxiety (state/trait), aggression (state/trait), fatigue, and depression seven days after surgery. Three psychological vulnerability categories were considered-i.e., none, one, or multiple poor scores, defined as a score exceeding one standard deviation above the mean for each single outcome according to normative data. The following determinants were assessed preoperatively: sociodemographic (age, sex, level of education, employment status, marital status, having children, religion, nationality), medical (heart rate and body mass index), and psychological variables (self-esteem and self-efficacy), in addition to anxiety, aggression, fatigue, and depression. A prediction model was constructed using ordinal polytomous logistic regression analysis, and bootstrapping was applied for internal validation. The ordinal c-index (ORC) quantified the discriminative ability of the model, in addition to measures for overall model performance (Nagelkerke's R (2) ). In this population, 137 (36%) patients were identified as being psychologically vulnerable after surgery for at least one of the psychological outcomes. The most parsimonious and optimal prediction model combined sociodemographic variables (level of education, having children, and nationality) with psychological variables (trait anxiety, state/trait aggression, fatigue, and depression). Model performance was promising: R (2)  = 30% and ORC = 0.76 after correction for optimism. This study identified a substantial group of vulnerable patients in ambulatory surgery. The proposed clinical prediction model could allow healthcare professionals the opportunity to identify vulnerable patients in ambulatory surgery, although additional modification and validation are needed. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01441843).

JuPOETs: a constrained multiobjective optimization approach to estimate biochemical model ensembles in the Julia programming language.

PubMed

Bassen, David M; Vilkhovoy, Michael; Minot, Mason; Butcher, Jonathan T; Varner, Jeffrey D

2017-01-25

Ensemble modeling is a promising approach for obtaining robust predictions and coarse grained population behavior in deterministic mathematical models. Ensemble approaches address model uncertainty by using parameter or model families instead of single best-fit parameters or fixed model structures. Parameter ensembles can be selected based upon simulation error, along with other criteria such as diversity or steady-state performance. Simulations using parameter ensembles can estimate confidence intervals on model variables, and robustly constrain model predictions, despite having many poorly constrained parameters. In this software note, we present a multiobjective based technique to estimate parameter or models ensembles, the Pareto Optimal Ensemble Technique in the Julia programming language (JuPOETs). JuPOETs integrates simulated annealing with Pareto optimality to estimate ensembles on or near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We demonstrate JuPOETs on a suite of multiobjective problems, including test functions with parameter bounds and system constraints as well as for the identification of a proof-of-concept biochemical model with four conflicting training objectives. JuPOETs identified optimal or near optimal solutions approximately six-fold faster than a corresponding implementation in Octave for the suite of test functions. For the proof-of-concept biochemical model, JuPOETs produced an ensemble of parameters that gave both the mean of the training data for conflicting data sets, while simultaneously estimating parameter sets that performed well on each of the individual objective functions. JuPOETs is a promising approach for the estimation of parameter and model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. JuPOETs can be adapted to solve many problem types, including mixed binary and continuous variable types, bilevel optimization problems and constrained problems without altering the base algorithm. JuPOETs is open source, available under an MIT license, and can be installed using the Julia package manager from the JuPOETs GitHub repository.

Selection of appropriate training and validation set chemicals for modelling dermal permeability by U-optimal design.

PubMed

Xu, G; Hughes-Oliver, J M; Brooks, J D; Yeatts, J L; Baynes, R E

2013-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are being used increasingly in skin permeation studies. The main idea of QSAR modelling is to quantify the relationship between biological activities and chemical properties, and thus to predict the activity of chemical solutes. As a key step, the selection of a representative and structurally diverse training set is critical to the prediction power of a QSAR model. Early QSAR models selected training sets in a subjective way and solutes in the training set were relatively homogenous. More recently, statistical methods such as D-optimal design or space-filling design have been applied but such methods are not always ideal. This paper describes a comprehensive procedure to select training sets from a large candidate set of 4534 solutes. A newly proposed 'Baynes' rule', which is a modification of Lipinski's 'rule of five', was used to screen out solutes that were not qualified for the study. U-optimality was used as the selection criterion. A principal component analysis showed that the selected training set was representative of the chemical space. Gas chromatograph amenability was verified. A model built using the training set was shown to have greater predictive power than a model built using a previous dataset [1].

Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data. PMID:28806754

Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems.

PubMed

Almaraashi, Majid

2017-01-01

Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data.

Prediction of Depression in Cancer Patients With Different Classification Criteria, Linear Discriminant Analysis versus Logistic Regression.

PubMed

Shayan, Zahra; Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser; Shayan, Leila; Naseri, Parisa

2015-11-03

Logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are two popular statistical models for prediction of group membership. Although they are very similar, the LDA makes more assumptions about the data. When categorical and continuous variables used simultaneously, the optimal choice between the two models is questionable. In most studies, classification error (CE) is used to discriminate between subjects in several groups, but this index is not suitable to predict the accuracy of the outcome. The present study compared LR and LDA models using classification indices. This cross-sectional study selected 243 cancer patients. Sample sets of different sizes (n = 50, 100, 150, 200, 220) were randomly selected and the CE, B, and Q classification indices were calculated by the LR and LDA models. CE revealed the a lack of superiority for one model over the other, but the results showed that LR performed better than LDA for the B and Q indices in all situations. No significant effect for sample size on CE was noted for selection of an optimal model. Assessment of the accuracy of prediction of real data indicated that the B and Q indices are appropriate for selection of an optimal model. The results of this study showed that LR performs better in some cases and LDA in others when based on CE. The CE index is not appropriate for classification, although the B and Q indices performed better and offered more efficient criteria for comparison and discrimination between groups.

Optimal Predictive Control for Path Following of a Full Drive-by-Wire Vehicle at Varying Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SONG, Pan; GAO, Bolin; XIE, Shugang; FANG, Rui

2017-05-01

The current research of the global chassis control problem for the full drive-by-wire vehicle focuses on the control allocation (CA) of the four-wheel-distributed traction/braking/steering systems. However, the path following performance and the handling stability of the vehicle can be enhanced a step further by automatically adjusting the vehicle speed to the optimal value. The optimal solution for the combined longitudinal and lateral motion control (MC) problem is given. First, a new variable step-size spatial transformation method is proposed and utilized in the prediction model to derive the dynamics of the vehicle with respect to the road, such that the tracking errors can be explicitly obtained over the prediction horizon at varying speeds. Second, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm is introduced to handle the nonlinear coupling between any two directions of the vehicular planar motion and computes the sequence of the optimal motion states for following the desired path. Third, a hierarchical control structure is proposed to separate the motion controller into a NMPC based path planner and a terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) based path follower. As revealed through off-line simulations, the hierarchical methodology brings nearly 1700% improvement in computational efficiency without loss of control performance. Finally, the control algorithm is verified through a hardware in-the-loop simulation system. Double-lane-change (DLC) test results show that by using the optimal predictive controller, the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the lateral deviations and the orientation errors can be reduced by 41% and 30%, respectively, comparing to those by the optimal preview acceleration (OPA) driver model with the non-preview speed-tracking method. Additionally, the average vehicle speed is increased by 0.26 km/h with the peak sideslip angle suppressed to 1.9°. This research proposes a novel motion controller, which provides the full drive-by-wire vehicle with better lane-keeping and collision-avoidance capabilities during autonomous driving.

A unified RANS–LES model: Computational development, accuracy and cost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopalan, Harish, E-mail: hgopalan@uwyo.edu; Heinz, Stefan, E-mail: heinz@uwyo.edu; Stöllinger, Michael K., E-mail: MStoell@uwyo.edu

2013-09-15

Large eddy simulation (LES) is computationally extremely expensive for the investigation of wall-bounded turbulent flows at high Reynolds numbers. A way to reduce the computational cost of LES by orders of magnitude is to combine LES equations with Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations used in the near-wall region. A large variety of such hybrid RANS–LES methods are currently in use such that there is the question of which hybrid RANS-LES method represents the optimal approach. The properties of an optimal hybrid RANS–LES model are formulated here by taking reference to fundamental properties of fluid flow equations. It is shown that unifiedmore » RANS–LES models derived from an underlying stochastic turbulence model have the properties of optimal hybrid RANS–LES models. The rest of the paper is organized in two parts. First, a priori and a posteriori analyses of channel flow data are used to find the optimal computational formulation of the theoretically derived unified RANS–LES model and to show that this computational model, which is referred to as linear unified model (LUM), does also have all the properties of an optimal hybrid RANS–LES model. Second, a posteriori analyses of channel flow data are used to study the accuracy and cost features of the LUM. The following conclusions are obtained. (i) Compared to RANS, which require evidence for their predictions, the LUM has the significant advantage that the quality of predictions is relatively independent of the RANS model applied. (ii) Compared to LES, the significant advantage of the LUM is a cost reduction of high-Reynolds number simulations by a factor of 0.07Re{sup 0.46}. For coarse grids, the LUM has a significant accuracy advantage over corresponding LES. (iii) Compared to other usually applied hybrid RANS–LES models, it is shown that the LUM provides significantly improved predictions.« less

Random Wiring, Ganglion Cell Mosaics, and the Functional Architecture of the Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Coppola, David; White, Leonard E.; Wolf, Fred

2015-01-01

The architecture of iso-orientation domains in the primary visual cortex (V1) of placental carnivores and primates apparently follows species invariant quantitative laws. Dynamical optimization models assuming that neurons coordinate their stimulus preferences throughout cortical circuits linking millions of cells specifically predict these invariants. This might indicate that V1’s intrinsic connectome and its functional architecture adhere to a single optimization principle with high precision and robustness. To validate this hypothesis, it is critical to closely examine the quantitative predictions of alternative candidate theories. Random feedforward wiring within the retino-cortical pathway represents a conceptually appealing alternative to dynamical circuit optimization because random dimension-expanding projections are believed to generically exhibit computationally favorable properties for stimulus representations. Here, we ask whether the quantitative invariants of V1 architecture can be explained as a generic emergent property of random wiring. We generalize and examine the stochastic wiring model proposed by Ringach and coworkers, in which iso-orientation domains in the visual cortex arise through random feedforward connections between semi-regular mosaics of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and visual cortical neurons. We derive closed-form expressions for cortical receptive fields and domain layouts predicted by the model for perfectly hexagonal RGC mosaics. Including spatial disorder in the RGC positions considerably changes the domain layout properties as a function of disorder parameters such as position scatter and its correlations across the retina. However, independent of parameter choice, we find that the model predictions substantially deviate from the layout laws of iso-orientation domains observed experimentally. Considering random wiring with the currently most realistic model of RGC mosaic layouts, a pairwise interacting point process, the predicted layouts remain distinct from experimental observations and resemble Gaussian random fields. We conclude that V1 layout invariants are specific quantitative signatures of visual cortical optimization, which cannot be explained by generic random feedforward-wiring models. PMID:26575467

Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerney, David; Thyer, Mark; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lerat, Julien; Kuczera, George

2017-03-01

Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. This study focuses on approaches for representing error heteroscedasticity with respect to simulated streamflow, i.e., the pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. We evaluate eight common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter λ) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and the United States, and two lumped hydrological models. Performance is quantified using predictive reliability, precision, and volumetric bias metrics. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modeling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with λ of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (λ = 0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Paradoxically, calibration of λ is often counterproductive: in perennial catchments, it tends to overfit low flows at the expense of abysmal precision in high flows. The log-sinh transformation is dominated by the simpler Pareto optimal schemes listed above. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

2017-04-01

For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

Basal glycogenolysis in mouse skeletal muscle: in vitro model predicts in vivo fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambeth, Melissa J.; Kushmerick, Martin J.; Marcinek, David J.; Conley, Kevin E.

2002-01-01

A previously published mammalian kinetic model of skeletal muscle glycogenolysis, consisting of literature in vitro parameters, was modified by substituting mouse specific Vmax values. The model demonstrates that glycogen breakdown to lactate is under ATPase control. Our criteria to test whether in vitro parameters could reproduce in vivo dynamics was the ability of the model to fit phosphocreatine (PCr) and inorganic phosphate (Pi) dynamic NMR data from ischemic basal mouse hindlimbs and predict biochemically-assayed lactate concentrations. Fitting was accomplished by optimizing four parameters--the ATPase rate coefficient, fraction of activated glycogen phosphorylase, and the equilibrium constants of creatine kinase and adenylate kinase (due to the absence of pH in the model). The optimized parameter values were physiologically reasonable, the resultant model fit the [PCr] and [Pi] timecourses well, and the model predicted the final measured lactate concentration. This result demonstrates that additional features of in vivo enzyme binding are not necessary for quantitative description of glycogenolytic dynamics.

Optimization of Biosorptive Removal of Dye from Aqueous System by Cone Shell of Calabrian Pine

PubMed Central

Deniz, Fatih

2014-01-01

The biosorption performance of raw cone shell of Calabrian pine for C.I. Basic Red 46 as a model azo dye from aqueous system was optimized using Taguchi experimental design methodology. L9 (33) orthogonal array was used to optimize the dye biosorption by the pine cone shell. The selected factors and their levels were biosorbent particle size, dye concentration, and contact time. The predicted dye biosorption capacity for the pine cone shell from Taguchi design was obtained as 71.770 mg g−1 under optimized biosorption conditions. This experimental design provided reasonable predictive performance of dye biosorption by the biosorbent (R 2: 0.9961). Langmuir model fitted better to the biosorption equilibrium data than Freundlich model. This displayed the monolayer coverage of dye molecules on the biosorbent surface. Dubinin-Radushkevich model and the standard Gibbs free energy change proposed physical biosorption for predominant mechanism. The logistic function presented the best fit to the data of biosorption kinetics. The kinetic parameters reflecting biosorption performance were also evaluated. The optimization study revealed that the pine cone shell can be an effective and economically feasible biosorbent for the removal of dye. PMID:25405213

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

PubMed Central

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models. PMID:26890307

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness.

PubMed

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia's marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to 'small p and large n' problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models.

Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

2015-03-01

This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real time optimal guidance of low-thrust spacecraft: an application of nonlinear model predictive control.

PubMed

Arrieta-Camacho, Juan José; Biegler, Lorenz T

2005-12-01

Real time optimal guidance is considered for a class of low thrust spacecraft. In particular, nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is utilized for computing the optimal control actions required to transfer a spacecraft from a low Earth orbit to a mission orbit. The NMPC methodology presented is able to cope with unmodeled disturbances. The dynamics of the transfer are modeled using a set of modified equinoctial elements because they do not exhibit singularities for zero inclination and zero eccentricity. The idea behind NMPC is the repeated solution of optimal control problems; at each time step, a new control action is computed. The optimal control problem is solved using a direct method-fully discretizing the equations of motion. The large scale nonlinear program resulting from the discretization procedure is solved using IPOPT--a primal-dual interior point algorithm. Stability and robustness characteristics of the NMPC algorithm are reviewed. A numerical example is presented that encourages further development of the proposed methodology: the transfer from low-Earth orbit to a molniya orbit.

Optimal Concentrations in Transport Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Kaare; Savage, Jessica; Kim, Wonjung; Bush, John; Holbrook, N. Michele

2013-03-01

Biological and man-made systems rely on effective transport networks for distribution of material and energy. Mass flow in these networks is determined by the flow rate and the concentration of material. While the most concentrated solution offers the greatest potential for mass flow, impedance grows with concentration and thus makes it the most difficult to transport. The concentration at which mass flow is optimal depends on specific physical and physiological properties of the system. We derive a simple model which is able to predict optimal concentrations observed in blood flows, sugar transport in plants, and nectar feeding animals. Our model predicts that the viscosity at the optimal concentration μopt =2nμ0 is an integer power of two times the viscosity of the pure carrier medium μ0. We show how the observed powers 1 <= n <= 6 agree well with theory and discuss how n depends on biological constraints imposed on the transport process. The model provides a universal framework for studying flows impeded by concentration and provides hints of how to optimize engineered flow systems, such as congestion in traffic flows.

A variable structure fuzzy neural network model of squamous dysplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on a global chaotic optimization algorithm.

PubMed

Moghtadaei, Motahareh; Hashemi Golpayegani, Mohammad Reza; Malekzadeh, Reza

2013-02-07

Identification of squamous dysplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is of great importance in prevention of cancer incidence. Computer aided algorithms can be very useful for identification of people with higher risks of squamous dysplasia, and ESCC. Such method can limit the clinical screenings to people with higher risks. Different regression methods have been used to predict ESCC and dysplasia. In this paper, a Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) model is selected for ESCC and dysplasia prediction. The inputs to the classifier are the risk factors. Since the relation between risk factors in the tumor system has a complex nonlinear behavior, in comparison to most of ordinary data, the cost function of its model can have more local optimums. Thus the need for global optimization methods is more highlighted. The proposed method in this paper is a Chaotic Optimization Algorithm (COA) proceeding by the common Error Back Propagation (EBP) local method. Since the model has many parameters, we use a strategy to reduce the dependency among parameters caused by the chaotic series generator. This dependency was not considered in the previous COA methods. The algorithm is compared with logistic regression model as the latest successful methods of ESCC and dysplasia prediction. The results represent a more precise prediction with less mean and variance of error. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved hybrid optimization algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Zhou, Changjun; Hou, Caixia; Wei, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Qiang

2014-07-01

A new improved hybrid optimization algorithm - PGATS algorithm, which is based on toy off-lattice model, is presented for dealing with three-dimensional protein structure prediction problems. The algorithm combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and tabu search (TS) algorithms. Otherwise, we also take some different improved strategies. The factor of stochastic disturbance is joined in the particle swarm optimization to improve the search ability; the operations of crossover and mutation that are in the genetic algorithm are changed to a kind of random liner method; at last tabu search algorithm is improved by appending a mutation operator. Through the combination of a variety of strategies and algorithms, the protein structure prediction (PSP) in a 3D off-lattice model is achieved. The PSP problem is an NP-hard problem, but the problem can be attributed to a global optimization problem of multi-extremum and multi-parameters. This is the theoretical principle of the hybrid optimization algorithm that is proposed in this paper. The algorithm combines local search and global search, which overcomes the shortcoming of a single algorithm, giving full play to the advantage of each algorithm. In the current universal standard sequences, Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences are certified. Experiments show that the proposed new method outperforms single algorithms on the accuracy of calculating the protein sequence energy value, which is proved to be an effective way to predict the structure of proteins.

Role of optimization criterion in static asymmetric analysis of lumbar spine load.

PubMed

Daniel, Matej

2011-10-01

A common method for load estimation in biomechanics is the inverse dynamics optimization, where the muscle activation pattern is found by minimizing or maximizing the optimization criterion. It has been shown that various optimization criteria predict remarkably similar muscle activation pattern and intra-articular contact forces during leg motion. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of the choice of optimization criterion on L4/L5 loading during static asymmetric loading. Upright standing with weight in one stretched arm was taken as a representative position. Musculoskeletal model of lumbar spine model was created from CT images of Visible Human Project. Several criteria were tested based on the minimization of muscle forces, muscle stresses, and spinal load. All criteria provide the same level of lumbar spine loading (difference is below 25%), except the criterion of minimum lumbar shear force which predicts unrealistically high spinal load and should not be considered further. Estimated spinal load and predicted muscle force activation pattern are in accordance with the intradiscal pressure measurements and EMG measurements. The L4/L5 spine loads 1312 N, 1674 N, and 1993 N were predicted for mass of weight in hand 2, 5, and 8 kg, respectively using criterion of mininum muscle stress cubed. As the optimization criteria do not considerably affect the spinal load, their choice is not critical in further clinical or ergonomic studies and computationally simpler criterion can be used.

Modelling and multi-parametric control for delivery of anaesthetic agents.

PubMed

Dua, Pinky; Dua, Vivek; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N

2010-06-01

This article presents model predictive controllers (MPCs) and multi-parametric model-based controllers for delivery of anaesthetic agents. The MPC can take into account constraints on drug delivery rates and state of the patient but requires solving an optimization problem at regular time intervals. The multi-parametric controller has all the advantages of the MPC and does not require repetitive solution of optimization problem for its implementation. This is achieved by obtaining the optimal drug delivery rates as a set of explicit functions of the state of the patient. The derivation of the controllers relies on using detailed models of the system. A compartmental model for the delivery of three drugs for anaesthesia is developed. The key feature of this model is that mean arterial pressure, cardiac output and unconsciousness of the patient can be simultaneously regulated. This is achieved by using three drugs: dopamine (DP), sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and isoflurane. A number of dynamic simulation experiments are carried out for the validation of the model. The model is then used for the design of model predictive and multi-parametric controllers, and the performance of the controllers is analyzed.

Improved Speech Coding Based on Open-Loop Parameter Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Jer-Nan; Chen, Ya-Chin; Longman, Richard W.

2000-01-01

A nonlinear optimization algorithm for linear predictive speech coding was developed early that not only optimizes the linear model coefficients for the open loop predictor, but does the optimization including the effects of quantization of the transmitted residual. It also simultaneously optimizes the quantization levels used for each speech segment. In this paper, we present an improved method for initialization of this nonlinear algorithm, and demonstrate substantial improvements in performance. In addition, the new procedure produces monotonically improving speech quality with increasing numbers of bits used in the transmitted error residual. Examples of speech encoding and decoding are given for 8 speech segments and signal to noise levels as high as 47 dB are produced. As in typical linear predictive coding, the optimization is done on the open loop speech analysis model. Here we demonstrate that minimizing the error of the closed loop speech reconstruction, instead of the simpler open loop optimization, is likely to produce negligible improvement in speech quality. The examples suggest that the algorithm here is close to giving the best performance obtainable from a linear model, for the chosen order with the chosen number of bits for the codebook.

Comparative molecular field analysis of artemisinin derivatives: Ab initio versus semiempirical optimized structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonmunphean, Somsak; Kokpol, Sirirat; Parasuk, Vudhichai; Wolschann, Peter; Winger, Rudolf H.; Liedl, Klaus R.; Rode, Bernd M.

1998-07-01

Based on the belief that structural optimization methods, producing structures more closely to the experimental ones, should give better, i.e. more relevant, steric fields and hence more predictive CoMFA models, comparative molecular field analyses of artemisinin derivatives were performed based on semiempirical AM1 and HF/3-21G optimized geometries. Using these optimized geometries, the CoMFA results derived from the HF/3-21G method are found to be usually but not drastically better than those from AM1. Additional calculations were performed to investigate the electrostatic field difference using the Gasteiger and Marsili charges, the electrostatic potential fit charges at the AM1 level, and the natural population analysis charges at the HF/3-21G level of theory. For the HF/3-21G optimized structures no difference in predictability was observed, whereas for AM1 optimized structures such differences were found. Interestingly, if ionic compounds are omitted, differences between the various HF/3-21G optimized structure models using these electrostatic fields were found.

Predictive and mechanistic multivariate linear regression models for reaction development

PubMed Central

Santiago, Celine B.; Guo, Jing-Yao

2018-01-01

Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) models utilizing computationally-derived and empirically-derived physical organic molecular descriptors are described in this review. Several reports demonstrating the effectiveness of this methodological approach towards reaction optimization and mechanistic interrogation are discussed. A detailed protocol to access quantitative and predictive MLR models is provided as a guide for model development and parameter analysis. PMID:29719711

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block bootstrap (MABB) ) based on the explicit objective functions of minimizing the relative bias and relative root mean square error in estimating the storage capacity of the reservoir. The optimal parameter set of the hybrid model is obtained based on the search over a multi- dimensional parameter space (involving simultaneous exploration of the parametric (PAR(1)) as well as the non-parametric (MABB) components). This is achieved using the efficient evolutionary search based optimization tool namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm - II (NSGA-II). This approach helps in reducing the drudgery involved in the process of manual selection of the hybrid model, in addition to predicting the basic summary statistics dependence structure, marginal distribution and water-use characteristics accurately. The proposed optimization framework is used to model the multi-season streamflows of River Beaver and River Weber of USA. In case of both the rivers, the proposed GA-based hybrid model yields a much better prediction of the storage capacity (where simultaneous exploration of both parametric and non-parametric components is done) when compared with the MLE-based hybrid models (where the hybrid model selection is done in two stages, thus probably resulting in a sub-optimal model). This framework can be further extended to include different linear/non-linear hybrid stochastic models at other temporal and spatial scales as well.

Mathematical modeling of a thermovoltaic cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Ralph E.; Kawanami, Makoto

1992-01-01

A new type of battery named 'Vaporvolt' cell is in the early stage of its development. A mathematical model of a CuO/Cu 'Vaporvolt' cell is presented that can be used to predict the potential and the transport behavior of the cell during discharge. A sensitivity analysis of the various transport and electrokinetic parameters indicates which parameters have the most influence on the predicted energy and power density of the 'Vaporvolt' cell. This information can be used to decide which parameters should be optimized or determined more accurately through further modeling or experimental studies. The optimal thicknesses of electrodes and separator, the concentration of the electrolyte, and the current density are determined by maximizing the power density. These parameter sensitivities and optimal design parameter values will help in the development of a better CuO/Cu 'Vaporvolt' cell.

Climate change in fish: effects of respiratory constraints on optimal life history and behaviour.

PubMed

Holt, Rebecca E; Jørgensen, Christian

2015-02-01

The difference between maximum metabolic rate and standard metabolic rate is referred to as aerobic scope, and because it constrains performance it is suggested to constitute a key limiting process prescribing how fish may cope with or adapt to climate warming. We use an evolutionary bioenergetics model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to predict optimal life histories and behaviours at different temperatures. The model assumes common trade-offs and predicts that optimal temperatures for growth and fitness lie below that for aerobic scope; aerobic scope is thus a poor predictor of fitness at high temperatures. Initially, warming expands aerobic scope, allowing for faster growth and increased reproduction. Beyond the optimal temperature for fitness, increased metabolic requirements intensify foraging and reduce survival; oxygen budgeting conflicts thus constrain successful completion of the life cycle. The model illustrates how physiological adaptations are part of a suite of traits that have coevolved. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Application of Hyperspectral Imaging to Detect Sclerotinia sclerotiorum on Oilseed Rape Stems

PubMed Central

Kong, Wenwen; Zhang, Chu; Huang, Weihao

2018-01-01

Hyperspectral imaging covering the spectral range of 384–1034 nm combined with chemometric methods was used to detect Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (SS) on oilseed rape stems by two sample sets (60 healthy and 60 infected stems for each set). Second derivative spectra and PCA loadings were used to select the optimal wavelengths. Discriminant models were built and compared to detect SS on oilseed rape stems, including partial least squares-discriminant analysis, radial basis function neural network, support vector machine and extreme learning machine. The discriminant models using full spectra and optimal wavelengths showed good performance with classification accuracies of over 80% for the calibration and prediction set. Comparing all developed models, the optimal classification accuracies of the calibration and prediction set were over 90%. The similarity of selected optimal wavelengths also indicated the feasibility of using hyperspectral imaging to detect SS on oilseed rape stems. The results indicated that hyperspectral imaging could be used as a fast, non-destructive and reliable technique to detect plant diseases on stems. PMID:29300315

Energetic Physiology Mediates Individual Optimization of Breeding Phenology in a Migratory Arctic Seabird.

PubMed

Hennin, Holly L; Bêty, Jöel; Legagneux, Pierre; Gilchrist, H Grant; Williams, Tony D; Love, Oliver P

2016-10-01

The influence of variation in individual state on key reproductive decisions impacting fitness is well appreciated in evolutionary ecology. Rowe et al. (1994) developed a condition-dependent individual optimization model predicting that three key factors impact the ability of migratory female birds to individually optimize breeding phenology to maximize fitness in seasonal environments: arrival condition, arrival date, and ability to gain in condition on the breeding grounds. While empirical studies have confirmed that greater arrival body mass and earlier arrival dates result in earlier laying, no study has assessed whether individual variation in energetic management of condition gain effects this key fitness-related decision. Using an 8-year data set from over 350 prebreeding female Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima), we tested this component of the model by examining whether individual variation in two physiological traits influencing energetic management (plasma triglycerides: physiological fattening rate; baseline corticosterone: energetic demand) predicted individual variation in breeding phenology after controlling for arrival date and body mass. As predicted by the optimization model, individuals with higher fattening rates and lower energetic demand had the earliest breeding phenology (shortest delays between arrival and laying; earliest laying dates). Our results are the first to empirically determine that individual flexibility in prebreeding energetic management influences key fitness-related reproductive decisions, suggesting that individuals have the capacity to optimally manage reproductive investment.

Optimized Non-Obstructive Particle Damping (NOPD) Treatment for Composite Honeycomb Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panossian, H.

2008-01-01

Non-Obstructive Particle Damping (NOPD) technology is a passive vibration damping approach whereby metallic or non-metallic particles in spherical or irregular shapes, of heavy or light consistency, and even liquid particles are placed inside cavities or attached to structures by an appropriate means at strategic locations, to absorb vibration energy. The objective of the work described herein is the development of a design optimization procedure and discussion of test results for such a NOPD treatment on honeycomb (HC) composite structures, based on finite element modeling (FEM) analyses, optimization and tests. Modeling and predictions were performed and tests were carried out to correlate the test data with the FEM. The optimization procedure consisted of defining a global objective function, using finite difference methods, to determine the optimal values of the design variables through quadratic linear programming. The optimization process was carried out by targeting the highest dynamic displacements of several vibration modes of the structure and finding an optimal treatment configuration that will minimize them. An optimal design was thus derived and laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate its performance under different vibration environments. Three honeycomb composite beams, with Nomex core and aluminum face sheets, empty (untreated), uniformly treated with NOPD, and optimally treated with NOPD, according to the analytically predicted optimal design configuration, were tested in the laboratory. It is shown that the beam with optimal treatment has the lowest response amplitude. Described below are results of modal vibration tests and FEM analyses from predictions of the modal characteristics of honeycomb beams under zero, 50% uniform treatment and an optimal NOPD treatment design configuration and verification with test data.

A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species.

PubMed

Bach, Dominik R

2015-04-07

In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and instructed attention, and do not explain why startle reflex modulation evolved. Here, we fill this lacuna by developing a normative cost minimisation model based on Bayesian optimality principles. This model predicts the observed pattern of startle modification by rewards, punishments, instructed attention, and several other states. Moreover, the mathematical formalism furnishes predictions that can be tested experimentally. Comparing the model with existing data suggests a specific neural implementation of the underlying computations which yields close approximations to the optimal solution under most circumstances. This analysis puts startle modification into the framework of Bayesian decision theory and predictive coding, and illustrates the importance of an adaptive perspective to interpret defensive behaviour across species. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Optimal remediation of unconfined aquifers: Numerical applications and derivative calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansfield, Christopher M.; Shoemaker, Christine A.

1999-05-01

This paper extends earlier work on derivative-based optimization for cost-effective remediation to unconfined aquifers, which have more complex, nonlinear flow dynamics than confined aquifers. Most previous derivative-based optimization of contaminant removal has been limited to consideration of confined aquifers; however, contamination is more common in unconfined aquifers. Exact derivative equations are presented, and two computationally efficient approximations, the quasi-confined (QC) and head independent from previous (HIP) unconfined-aquifer finite element equation derivative approximations, are presented and demonstrated to be highly accurate. The derivative approximations can be used with any nonlinear optimization method requiring derivatives for computation of either time-invariant or time-varying pumping rates. The QC and HIP approximations are combined with the nonlinear optimal control algorithm SALQR into the unconfined-aquifer algorithm, which is shown to compute solutions for unconfined aquifers in CPU times that were not significantly longer than those required by the confined-aquifer optimization model. Two of the three example unconfined-aquifer cases considered obtained pumping policies with substantially lower objective function values with the unconfined model than were obtained with the confined-aquifer optimization, even though the mean differences in hydraulic heads predicted by the unconfined- and confined-aquifer models were small (less than 0.1%). We suggest a possible geophysical index based on differences in drawdown predictions between unconfined- and confined-aquifer models to estimate which aquifers require unconfined-aquifer optimization and which can be adequately approximated by the simpler confined-aquifer analysis.

[Extraction Optimization of Rhizome of Curcuma longa by Response Surface Methodology and Support Vector Regression].

PubMed

Zhou, Pei-pei; Shan, Jin-feng; Jiang, Jian-lan

2015-12-01

To optimize the optimal microwave-assisted extraction method of curcuminoids from Curcuma longa. On the base of single factor experiment, the ethanol concentration, the ratio of liquid to solid and the microwave time were selected for further optimization. Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Central Composite Design-Response Surface Methodology (CCD) algorithm were utilized to design and establish models respectively, while Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was introduced to optimize the parameters of SVR models and to search optimal points of models. The evaluation indicator, the sum of curcumin, demethoxycurcumin and bisdemethoxycurcumin by HPLC, were used. The optimal parameters of microwave-assisted extraction were as follows: ethanol concentration of 69%, ratio of liquid to solid of 21 : 1, microwave time of 55 s. On those conditions, the sum of three curcuminoids was 28.97 mg/g (per gram of rhizomes powder). Both the CCD model and the SVR model were credible, for they have predicted the similar process condition and the deviation of yield were less than 1.2%.

Impact of a Flexible Evaluation System on Effort and Timing of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pacharn, Parunchana; Bay, Darlene; Felton, Sandra

2012-01-01

This paper examines results of a flexible grading system that allows each student to influence the weight allocated to each performance measure. We construct a stylized model to determine students' optimal responses. Our analytical model predicts different optimal strategies for students with varying academic abilities: a frontloading strategy for…

Convergence of models of human ventricular myocyte electrophysiology after global optimization to recapitulate clinical long QT phenotypes.

PubMed

Mann, Stefan A; Imtiaz, Mohammad; Winbo, Annika; Rydberg, Annika; Perry, Matthew D; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Polonsky, Bronislava; McNitt, Scott; Zareba, Wojciech; Hill, Adam P; Vandenberg, Jamie I

2016-11-01

In-silico models of human cardiac electrophysiology are now being considered for prediction of cardiotoxicity as part of the preclinical assessment phase of all new drugs. We ask the question whether any of the available models are actually fit for this purpose. We tested three models of the human ventricular action potential, the O'hara-Rudy (ORD11), the Grandi-Bers (GB10) and the Ten Tusscher (TT06) models. We extracted clinical QT data for LQTS1 and LQTS2 patients with nonsense mutations that would be predicted to cause 50% loss of function in I Ks and I Kr respectively. We also obtained clinical QT data for LQTS3 patients. We then used a global optimization approach to improve the existing in silico models so that they reproduced all three clinical data sets more closely. We also examined the effects of adrenergic stimulation in the different LQTS subsets. All models, in their original form, produce markedly different and unrealistic predictions of QT prolongation for LQTS1, 2 and 3. After global optimization of the maximum conductances for membrane channels, all models have similar current densities during the action potential, despite differences in kinetic properties of the channels in the different models, and more closely reproduce the prolongation of repolarization seen in all LQTS subtypes. In-silico models of cardiac electrophysiology have the potential to be tremendously useful in complementing traditional preclinical drug testing studies. However, our results demonstrate they should be carefully validated and optimized to clinical data before they can be used for this purpose. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multilevel Optimization Framework for Hierarchical Stiffened Shells Accelerated by Adaptive Equivalent Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bo; Tian, Kuo; Zhao, Haixin; Hao, Peng; Zhu, Tianyu; Zhang, Ke; Ma, Yunlong

2017-06-01

In order to improve the post-buckling optimization efficiency of hierarchical stiffened shells, a multilevel optimization framework accelerated by adaptive equivalent strategy is presented in this paper. Firstly, the Numerical-based Smeared Stiffener Method (NSSM) for hierarchical stiffened shells is derived by means of the numerical implementation of asymptotic homogenization (NIAH) method. Based on the NSSM, a reasonable adaptive equivalent strategy for hierarchical stiffened shells is developed from the concept of hierarchy reduction. Its core idea is to self-adaptively decide which hierarchy of the structure should be equivalent according to the critical buckling mode rapidly predicted by NSSM. Compared with the detailed model, the high prediction accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model is highlighted. On the basis of this adaptive equivalent model, a multilevel optimization framework is then established by decomposing the complex entire optimization process into major-stiffener-level and minor-stiffener-level sub-optimizations, during which Fixed Point Iteration (FPI) is employed to accelerate convergence. Finally, the illustrative examples of the multilevel framework is carried out to demonstrate its efficiency and effectiveness to search for the global optimum result by contrast with the single-level optimization method. Remarkably, the high efficiency and flexibility of the adaptive equivalent strategy is indicated by compared with the single equivalent strategy.

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2014-01-01

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2015-01-01

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on the particle swarm optimization and their applications to the predictability problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qin; Yang, Zubin; Sha, Jianxin; Yan, Jun

2017-02-01

In predictability problem research, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) describes the initial perturbation that satisfies a certain constraint condition and causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The CNOP has been successfully applied in estimation of the lower bound of maximum predictable time (LBMPT). Generally, CNOPs are calculated by a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint model, which is called ADJ-CNOP. This study, through the two-dimensional Ikeda model, investigates the impacts of the nonlinearity on ADJ-CNOP and the corresponding precision problems when using ADJ-CNOP to estimate the LBMPT. Our conclusions are that (1) when the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity of the dynamical model in the prediction variable will lead to failure of the ADJ-CNOP method, and (2) when the objective function has multiple extreme values, ADJ-CNOP has a large probability of producing local CNOPs, hence making a false estimation of the LBMPT. Furthermore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, one kind of intelligent algorithm, is introduced to solve this problem. The method using PSO to compute CNOP is called PSO-CNOP. The results of numerical experiments show that even with a large initial perturbation and long prediction time, or when the objective function has multiple extreme values, PSO-CNOP can always obtain the global CNOP. Since the PSO algorithm is a heuristic search algorithm based on the population, it can overcome the impact of nonlinearity and the disturbance from multiple extremes of the objective function. In addition, to check the estimation accuracy of the LBMPT presented by PSO-CNOP and ADJ-CNOP, we partition the constraint domain of initial perturbations into sufficiently fine grid meshes and take the LBMPT obtained by the filtering method as a benchmark. The result shows that the estimation presented by PSO-CNOP is closer to the true value than the one by ADJ-CNOP with the forecast time increasing.

Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1974-01-01

Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

Fermentation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae - Combining kinetic modeling and optimization techniques points out avenues to effective process design.

PubMed

Scheiblauer, Johannes; Scheiner, Stefan; Joksch, Martin; Kavsek, Barbara

2018-09-14

A combined experimental/theoretical approach is presented, for improving the predictability of Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentations. In particular, a mathematical model was developed explicitly taking into account the main mechanisms of the fermentation process, allowing for continuous computation of key process variables, including the biomass concentration and the respiratory quotient (RQ). For model calibration and experimental validation, batch and fed-batch fermentations were carried out. Comparison of the model-predicted biomass concentrations and RQ developments with the corresponding experimentally recorded values shows a remarkably good agreement for both batch and fed-batch processes, confirming the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, sensitivity studies were performed, in order to identify model parameters whose variations have significant effects on the model predictions: our model responds with significant sensitivity to the variations of only six parameters. These studies provide a valuable basis for model reduction, as also demonstrated in this paper. Finally, optimization-based parametric studies demonstrate how our model can be utilized for improving the efficiency of Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Guiding Conformation Space Search with an All-Atom Energy Potential

PubMed Central

Brunette, TJ; Brock, Oliver

2009-01-01

The most significant impediment for protein structure prediction is the inadequacy of conformation space search. Conformation space is too large and the energy landscape too rugged for existing search methods to consistently find near-optimal minima. To alleviate this problem, we present model-based search, a novel conformation space search method. Model-based search uses highly accurate information obtained during search to build an approximate, partial model of the energy landscape. Model-based search aggregates information in the model as it progresses, and in turn uses this information to guide exploration towards regions most likely to contain a near-optimal minimum. We validate our method by predicting the structure of 32 proteins, ranging in length from 49 to 213 amino acids. Our results demonstrate that model-based search is more effective at finding low-energy conformations in high-dimensional conformation spaces than existing search methods. The reduction in energy translates into structure predictions of increased accuracy. PMID:18536015

A unified internal model theory to resolve the paradox of active versus passive self-motion sensation

PubMed Central

Angelaki, Dora E

2017-01-01

Brainstem and cerebellar neurons implement an internal model to accurately estimate self-motion during externally generated (‘passive’) movements. However, these neurons show reduced responses during self-generated (‘active’) movements, indicating that predicted sensory consequences of motor commands cancel sensory signals. Remarkably, the computational processes underlying sensory prediction during active motion and their relationship to internal model computations during passive movements remain unknown. We construct a Kalman filter that incorporates motor commands into a previously established model of optimal passive self-motion estimation. The simulated sensory error and feedback signals match experimentally measured neuronal responses during active and passive head and trunk rotations and translations. We conclude that a single sensory internal model can combine motor commands with vestibular and proprioceptive signals optimally. Thus, although neurons carrying sensory prediction error or feedback signals show attenuated modulation, the sensory cues and internal model are both engaged and critically important for accurate self-motion estimation during active head movements. PMID:29043978

Support Vector Machines for Differential Prediction

PubMed Central

Kuusisto, Finn; Santos Costa, Vitor; Nassif, Houssam; Burnside, Elizabeth; Page, David; Shavlik, Jude

2015-01-01

Machine learning is continually being applied to a growing set of fields, including the social sciences, business, and medicine. Some fields present problems that are not easily addressed using standard machine learning approaches and, in particular, there is growing interest in differential prediction. In this type of task we are interested in producing a classifier that specifically characterizes a subgroup of interest by maximizing the difference in predictive performance for some outcome between subgroups in a population. We discuss adapting maximum margin classifiers for differential prediction. We first introduce multiple approaches that do not affect the key properties of maximum margin classifiers, but which also do not directly attempt to optimize a standard measure of differential prediction. We next propose a model that directly optimizes a standard measure in this field, the uplift measure. We evaluate our models on real data from two medical applications and show excellent results. PMID:26158123

Support Vector Machines for Differential Prediction.

PubMed

Kuusisto, Finn; Santos Costa, Vitor; Nassif, Houssam; Burnside, Elizabeth; Page, David; Shavlik, Jude

Machine learning is continually being applied to a growing set of fields, including the social sciences, business, and medicine. Some fields present problems that are not easily addressed using standard machine learning approaches and, in particular, there is growing interest in differential prediction . In this type of task we are interested in producing a classifier that specifically characterizes a subgroup of interest by maximizing the difference in predictive performance for some outcome between subgroups in a population. We discuss adapting maximum margin classifiers for differential prediction. We first introduce multiple approaches that do not affect the key properties of maximum margin classifiers, but which also do not directly attempt to optimize a standard measure of differential prediction. We next propose a model that directly optimizes a standard measure in this field, the uplift measure. We evaluate our models on real data from two medical applications and show excellent results.

Optimal diving behaviour and respiratory gas exchange in birds.

PubMed

Halsey, Lewis G; Butler, Patrick J

2006-11-01

This review discusses the advancements in our understanding of the physiology and behaviour of avian diving that have been underpinned by optimal foraging theory and the testing of optimal models. To maximise their foraging efficiency during foraging periods, diving birds must balance numerous factors that are directly or indirectly related to the replenishment of the oxygen stores and the removal of excess carbon dioxide. These include (1) the time spent underwater (which diminishes the oxygen supply, increases carbon dioxide levels and may even include a build up of lactate due to anaerobic metabolism), (2) the time spent at the surface recovering from the previous dive and preparing for the next (including reloading their oxygen supply, decreasing their carbon dioxide levels and possibly also metabolising lactate) and (3) the trade-off between maximising oxygen reserves for consumption underwater by taking in more air to the respiratory system, and minimising the energy costs of positive buoyancy caused by this air, to maximise the time available underwater to forage. Due to its importance in avian diving, replenishment of the oxygen stores has become integral to models of optimal diving, which predict the time budgeting of animals foraging underwater. While many of these models have been examined qualitatively, such tests of predictive trends appear fallible and only quantifiable support affords strong evidence of their predictive value. This review describes how the quantification of certain optimal diving models, using tufted ducks, indeed demonstrates some predictive success. This suggests that replenishment of the oxygen stores and removal of excess carbon dioxide have significant influences on the duration of the surface period between dives. Nevertheless, present models are too simplistic to be robust predictors of diving behaviour for individual animals and it is proposed that they require refinement through the incorporation of other variables that also influence diving behaviour such as, perhaps, prey density and predator avoidance.

Energy Storage Sizing Taking Into Account Forecast Uncertainties and Receding Horizon Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Hug, Gabriela; Li, Xin

Energy storage systems (ESS) have the potential to be very beneficial for applications such as reducing the ramping of generators, peak shaving, and balancing not only the variability introduced by renewable energy sources, but also the uncertainty introduced by errors in their forecasts. Optimal usage of storage may result in reduced generation costs and an increased use of renewable energy. However, optimally sizing these devices is a challenging problem. This paper aims to provide the tools to optimally size an ESS under the assumption that it will be operated under a model predictive control scheme and that the forecast ofmore » the renewable energy resources include prediction errors. A two-stage stochastic model predictive control is formulated and solved, where the optimal usage of the storage is simultaneously determined along with the optimal generation outputs and size of the storage. Wind forecast errors are taken into account in the optimization problem via probabilistic constraints for which an analytical form is derived. This allows for the stochastic optimization problem to be solved directly, without using sampling-based approaches, and sizing the storage to account not only for a wide range of potential scenarios, but also for a wide range of potential forecast errors. In the proposed formulation, we account for the fact that errors in the forecast affect how the device is operated later in the horizon and that a receding horizon scheme is used in operation to optimally use the available storage.« less

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert; ...

2017-07-01

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Avionic Architecture for Model Predictive Control Application in Mars Sample & Return Rendezvous Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saponara, M.; Tramutola, A.; Creten, P.; Hardy, J.; Philippe, C.

2013-08-01

Optimization-based control techniques such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) are considered extremely attractive for space rendezvous, proximity operations and capture applications that require high level of autonomy, optimal path planning and dynamic safety margins. Such control techniques require high-performance computational needs for solving large optimization problems. The development and implementation in a flight representative avionic architecture of a MPC based Guidance, Navigation and Control system has been investigated in the ESA R&T study “On-line Reconfiguration Control System and Avionics Architecture” (ORCSAT) of the Aurora programme. The paper presents the baseline HW and SW avionic architectures, and verification test results obtained with a customised RASTA spacecraft avionics development platform from Aeroflex Gaisler.

Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.

2010-10-01

Despite the widespread use of conceptual hydrological models in environmental research and operations, they remain frequently implemented using numerically unreliable methods. This paper considers the impact of the time stepping scheme on model analysis (sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo-based uncertainty estimation) and prediction. It builds on the companion paper (Clark and Kavetski, 2010), which focused on numerical accuracy, fidelity, and computational efficiency. Empirical and theoretical analysis of eight distinct time stepping schemes for six different hydrological models in 13 diverse basins demonstrates several critical conclusions. (1) Unreliable time stepping schemes, in particular, fixed-step explicit methods, suffer from troublesome numerical artifacts that severely deform the objective function of the model. These deformations are not rare isolated instances but can arise in any model structure, in any catchment, and under common hydroclimatic conditions. (2) Sensitivity analysis can be severely contaminated by numerical errors, often to the extent that it becomes dominated by the sensitivity of truncation errors rather than the model equations. (3) Robust time stepping schemes generally produce "better behaved" objective functions, free of spurious local optima, and with sufficient numerical continuity to permit parameter optimization using efficient quasi Newton methods. When implemented within a multistart framework, modern Newton-type optimizers are robust even when started far from the optima and provide valuable diagnostic insights not directly available from evolutionary global optimizers. (4) Unreliable time stepping schemes lead to inconsistent and biased inferences of the model parameters and internal states. (5) Even when interactions between hydrological parameters and numerical errors provide "the right result for the wrong reason" and the calibrated model performance appears adequate, unreliable time stepping schemes make the model unnecessarily fragile in predictive mode, undermining validation assessments and operational use. Erroneous or misleading conclusions of model analysis and prediction arising from numerical artifacts in hydrological models are intolerable, especially given that robust numerics are accepted as mainstream in other areas of science and engineering. We hope that the vivid empirical findings will encourage the conceptual hydrological community to close its Pandora's box of numerical problems, paving the way for more meaningful model application and interpretation.

Development of a CSP plant energy yield calculation tool applying predictive models to analyze plant performance sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haack, Lukas; Peniche, Ricardo; Sommer, Lutz; Kather, Alfons

2017-06-01

At early project stages, the main CSP plant design parameters such as turbine capacity, solar field size, and thermal storage capacity are varied during the techno-economic optimization to determine most suitable plant configurations. In general, a typical meteorological year with at least hourly time resolution is used to analyze each plant configuration. Different software tools are available to simulate the annual energy yield. Software tools offering a thermodynamic modeling approach of the power block and the CSP thermal cycle, such as EBSILONProfessional®, allow a flexible definition of plant topologies. In EBSILON, the thermodynamic equilibrium for each time step is calculated iteratively (quasi steady state), which requires approximately 45 minutes to process one year with hourly time resolution. For better presentation of gradients, 10 min time resolution is recommended, which increases processing time by a factor of 5. Therefore, analyzing a large number of plant sensitivities, as required during the techno-economic optimization procedure, the detailed thermodynamic simulation approach becomes impracticable. Suntrace has developed an in-house CSP-Simulation tool (CSPsim), based on EBSILON and applying predictive models, to approximate the CSP plant performance for central receiver and parabolic trough technology. CSPsim significantly increases the speed of energy yield calculations by factor ≥ 35 and has automated the simulation run of all predefined design configurations in sequential order during the optimization procedure. To develop the predictive models, multiple linear regression techniques and Design of Experiment methods are applied. The annual energy yield and derived LCOE calculated by the predictive model deviates less than ±1.5 % from the thermodynamic simulation in EBSILON and effectively identifies the optimal range of main design parameters for further, more specific analysis.

NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

2012-04-01

We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.

[The research of near-infrared blood glucose measurement using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural network].

PubMed

Dai, Juan; Ji, Zhong; Du, Yubao

2017-08-01

Existing near-infrared non-invasive blood glucose detection modelings mostly detect multi-spectral signals with different wavelength, which is not conducive to the popularization of non-invasive glucose meter at home and does not consider the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals. In order to solve these problems, this study presented a non-invasive blood glucose detection model combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural network (ANN) by using the 1 550 nm near-infrared absorbance as the independent variable and the concentration of blood glucose as the dependent variable, named as PSO-2ANN. The PSO-2ANN model was based on two sub-modules of neural networks with certain structures and arguments, and was built up after optimizing the weight coefficients of the two networks by particle swarm optimization. The results of 10 volunteers were predicted by PSO-2ANN. It was indicated that the relative error of 9 volunteers was less than 20%; 98.28% of the predictions of blood glucose by PSO-2ANN were distributed in the regions A and B of Clarke error grid, which confirmed that PSO-2ANN could offer higher prediction accuracy and better robustness by comparison with ANN. Additionally, even the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals may be different due to the influence of environment, temper, mental state and so on, PSO-2ANN can correct this difference only by adjusting one argument. The PSO-2ANN model provided us a new prospect to overcome individual differences in blood glucose prediction.

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

PubMed Central

Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

Risk-Based, Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Hydrological Field Campaigns with Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harken, B.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

There are several stages in any hydrological modeling campaign, including: formulation and analysis of a priori information, data acquisition through field campaigns, inverse modeling, and prediction of some environmental performance metric (EPM). The EPM being predicted could be, for example, contaminant concentration or plume travel time. These predictions often have significant bearing on a decision that must be made. Examples include: how to allocate limited remediation resources between contaminated groundwater sites or where to place a waste repository site. Answering such questions depends on predictions of EPMs using forward models as well as levels of uncertainty related to these predictions. Uncertainty in EPM predictions stems from uncertainty in model parameters, which can be reduced by measurements taken in field campaigns. The costly nature of field measurements motivates a rational basis for determining a measurement strategy that is optimal with respect to the uncertainty in the EPM prediction. The tool of hypothesis testing allows this uncertainty to be quantified by computing the significance of the test resulting from a proposed field campaign. The significance of the test gives a rational basis for determining the optimality of a proposed field campaign. This hypothesis testing framework is demonstrated and discussed using various synthetic case studies. This study involves contaminated aquifers where a decision must be made based on prediction of when a contaminant will arrive at a specified location. The EPM, in this case contaminant travel time, is cast into the hypothesis testing framework. The null hypothesis states that the contaminant plume will arrive at the specified location before a critical amount of time passes, and the alternative hypothesis states that the plume will arrive after the critical time passes. The optimality of different field campaigns is assessed by computing the significance of the test resulting from each one. Evaluating the level of significance caused by a field campaign involves steps including likelihood-based inverse modeling and semi-analytical conditional particle tracking.

Factors affecting species distribution predictions: A simulation modeling experiment

Treesearch

Gordon C. Reese; Kenneth R. Wilson; Jennifer A. Hoeting; Curtis H. Flather

2005-01-01

Geospatial species sample data (e.g., records with location information from natural history museums or annual surveys) are rarely collected optimally, yet are increasingly used for decisions concerning our biological heritage. Using computer simulations, we examined factors that could affect the performance of autologistic regression (ALR) models that predict species...

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

PubMed

Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

PubMed Central

Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004–2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper. PMID:29473007

Decision-support models for empiric antibiotic selection in Gram-negative bloodstream infections.

PubMed

MacFadden, D R; Coburn, B; Shah, N; Robicsek, A; Savage, R; Elligsen, M; Daneman, N

2018-04-25

Early empiric antibiotic therapy in patients can improve clinical outcomes in Gram-negative bacteraemia. However, the widespread prevalence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens compromises our ability to provide adequate therapy while minimizing use of broad antibiotics. We sought to determine whether readily available electronic medical record data could be used to develop predictive models for decision support in Gram-negative bacteraemia. We performed a multi-centre cohort study, in Canada and the USA, of hospitalized patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection from April 2010 to March 2015. We analysed multivariable models for prediction of antibiotic susceptibility at two empiric windows: Gram-stain-guided and pathogen-guided treatment. Decision-support models for empiric antibiotic selection were developed based on three clinical decision thresholds of acceptable adequate coverage (80%, 90% and 95%). A total of 1832 patients with Gram-negative bacteraemia were evaluated. Multivariable models showed good discrimination across countries and at both Gram-stain-guided (12 models, areas under the curve (AUCs) 0.68-0.89, optimism-corrected AUCs 0.63-0.85) and pathogen-guided (12 models, AUCs 0.75-0.98, optimism-corrected AUCs 0.64-0.95) windows. Compared to antibiogram-guided therapy, decision-support models of antibiotic selection incorporating individual patient characteristics and prior culture results have the potential to increase use of narrower-spectrum antibiotics (in up to 78% of patients) while reducing inadequate therapy. Multivariable models using readily available epidemiologic factors can be used to predict antimicrobial susceptibility in infecting pathogens with reasonable discriminatory ability. Implementation of sequential predictive models for real-time individualized empiric antibiotic decision-making has the potential to both optimize adequate coverage for patients while minimizing overuse of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and therefore requires further prospective evaluation. Readily available epidemiologic risk factors can be used to predict susceptibility of Gram-negative organisms among patients with bacteraemia, using automated decision-making models. Copyright © 2018 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model to Assess Propofol Hepatic and Renal Glucuronidation in Isolation: Utility of In Vitro and In Vivo Data

PubMed Central

Gill, Katherine L.; Gertz, Michael; Houston, J. Brian

2013-01-01

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling approach was used to assess the prediction accuracy of propofol hepatic and extrahepatic metabolic clearance and to address previously reported underprediction of in vivo clearance based on static in vitro–in vivo extrapolation methods. The predictive capacity of propofol intrinsic clearance data (CLint) obtained in human hepatocytes and liver and kidney microsomes was assessed using the PBPK model developed in MATLAB software. Microsomal data obtained by both substrate depletion and metabolite formation methods and in the presence of 2% bovine serum albumin were considered in the analysis. Incorporation of hepatic and renal in vitro metabolic clearance in the PBPK model resulted in underprediction of propofol clearance regardless of the source of in vitro data; the predicted value did not exceed 35% of the observed clearance. Subsequently, propofol clinical data from three dose levels in intact patients and anhepatic subjects were used for the optimization of hepatic and renal CLint in a simultaneous fitting routine. Optimization process highlighted that renal glucuronidation clearance was underpredicted to a greater extent than liver clearance, requiring empirical scaling factors of 17 and 9, respectively. The use of optimized clearance parameters predicted hepatic and renal extraction ratios within 20% of the observed values, reported in an additional independent clinical study. This study highlights the complexity involved in assessing the contribution of extrahepatic clearance mechanisms and illustrates the application of PBPK modeling, in conjunction with clinical data, to assess prediction of clearance from in vitro data for each tissue individually. PMID:23303442

Noise tolerant illumination optimization applied to display devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassarly, William J.; Irving, Bruce

2005-02-01

Display devices have historically been designed through an iterative process using numerous hardware prototypes. This process is effective but the number of iterations is limited by the time and cost to make the prototypes. In recent years, virtual prototyping using illumination software modeling tools has replaced many of the hardware prototypes. Typically, the designer specifies the design parameters, builds the software model, predicts the performance using a Monte Carlo simulation, and uses the performance results to repeat this process until an acceptable design is obtained. What is highly desired, and now possible, is to use illumination optimization to automate the design process. Illumination optimization provides the ability to explore a wider range of design options while also providing improved performance. Since Monte Carlo simulations are often used to calculate the system performance but those predictions have statistical uncertainty, the use of noise tolerant optimization algorithms is important. The use of noise tolerant illumination optimization is demonstrated by considering display device designs that extract light using 2D paint patterns as well as 3D textured surfaces. A hybrid optimization approach that combines a mesh feedback optimization with a classical optimizer is demonstrated. Displays with LED sources and cold cathode fluorescent lamps are considered.

A hybrid artificial neural network and particle swarm optimization for prediction of removal of hazardous dye brilliant green from aqueous solution using zinc sulfide nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon.

PubMed

Ghaedi, M; Ansari, A; Bahari, F; Ghaedi, A M; Vafaei, A

2015-02-25

In the present study, zinc sulfide nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon (ZnS-NP-AC) simply was synthesized in the presence of ultrasound and characterized using different techniques such as SEM and BET analysis. Then, this material was used for brilliant green (BG) removal. To dependency of BG removal percentage toward various parameters including pH, adsorbent dosage, initial dye concentration and contact time were examined and optimized. The mechanism and rate of adsorption was ascertained by analyzing experimental data at various time to conventional kinetic models such as pseudo-first-order and second order, Elovich and intra-particle diffusion models. Comparison according to general criterion such as relative error in adsorption capacity and correlation coefficient confirm the usability of pseudo-second-order kinetic model for explanation of data. The Langmuir models is efficiently can explained the behavior of adsorption system to give full information about interaction of BG with ZnS-NP-AC. A multiple linear regression (MLR) and a hybrid of artificial neural network and partial swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) model were used for prediction of brilliant green adsorption onto ZnS-NP-AC. Comparison of the results obtained using offered models confirm higher ability of ANN model compare to the MLR model for prediction of BG adsorption onto ZnS-NP-AC. Using the optimal ANN-PSO model the coefficient of determination (R(2)) were 0.9610 and 0.9506; mean squared error (MSE) values were 0.0020 and 0.0022 for the training and testing data set, respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid artificial neural network and particle swarm optimization for prediction of removal of hazardous dye brilliant green from aqueous solution using zinc sulfide nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaedi, M.; Ansari, A.; Bahari, F.; Ghaedi, A. M.; Vafaei, A.

2015-02-01

In the present study, zinc sulfide nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon (ZnS-NP-AC) simply was synthesized in the presence of ultrasound and characterized using different techniques such as SEM and BET analysis. Then, this material was used for brilliant green (BG) removal. To dependency of BG removal percentage toward various parameters including pH, adsorbent dosage, initial dye concentration and contact time were examined and optimized. The mechanism and rate of adsorption was ascertained by analyzing experimental data at various time to conventional kinetic models such as pseudo-first-order and second order, Elovich and intra-particle diffusion models. Comparison according to general criterion such as relative error in adsorption capacity and correlation coefficient confirm the usability of pseudo-second-order kinetic model for explanation of data. The Langmuir models is efficiently can explained the behavior of adsorption system to give full information about interaction of BG with ZnS-NP-AC. A multiple linear regression (MLR) and a hybrid of artificial neural network and partial swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) model were used for prediction of brilliant green adsorption onto ZnS-NP-AC. Comparison of the results obtained using offered models confirm higher ability of ANN model compare to the MLR model for prediction of BG adsorption onto ZnS-NP-AC. Using the optimal ANN-PSO model the coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.9610 and 0.9506; mean squared error (MSE) values were 0.0020 and 0.0022 for the training and testing data set, respectively.

Simulation analysis of adaptive cruise prediction control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Cui, Sheng Min

2017-09-01

Predictive control is suitable for multi-variable and multi-constraint system control.In order to discuss the effect of predictive control on the vehicle longitudinal motion, this paper establishes the expected spacing model by combining variable pitch spacing and the of safety distance strategy. The model predictive control theory and the optimization method based on secondary planning are designed to obtain and track the best expected acceleration trajectory quickly. Simulation models are established including predictive and adaptive fuzzy control. Simulation results show that predictive control can realize the basic function of the system while ensuring the safety. The application of predictive and fuzzy adaptive algorithm in cruise condition indicates that the predictive control effect is better.

Feasibility of predicting tumor motion using online data acquired during treatment and a generalized neural network optimized with offline patient tumor trajectories.

PubMed

Teo, Troy P; Ahmed, Syed Bilal; Kawalec, Philip; Alayoubi, Nadia; Bruce, Neil; Lyn, Ethan; Pistorius, Stephen

2018-02-01

The accurate prediction of intrafraction lung tumor motion is required to compensate for system latency in image-guided adaptive radiotherapy systems. The goal of this study was to identify an optimal prediction model that has a short learning period so that prediction and adaptation can commence soon after treatment begins, and requires minimal reoptimization for individual patients. Specifically, the feasibility of predicting tumor position using a combination of a generalized (i.e., averaged) neural network, optimized using historical patient data (i.e., tumor trajectories) obtained offline, coupled with the use of real-time online tumor positions (obtained during treatment delivery) was examined. A 3-layer perceptron neural network was implemented to predict tumor motion for a prediction horizon of 650 ms. A backpropagation algorithm and batch gradient descent approach were used to train the model. Twenty-seven 1-min lung tumor motion samples (selected from a CyberKnife patient dataset) were sampled at a rate of 7.5 Hz (0.133 s) to emulate the frame rate of an electronic portal imaging device (EPID). A sliding temporal window was used to sample the data for learning. The sliding window length was set to be equivalent to the first breathing cycle detected from each trajectory. Performing a parametric sweep, an averaged error surface of mean square errors (MSE) was obtained from the prediction responses of seven trajectories used for the training of the model (Group 1). An optimal input data size and number of hidden neurons were selected to represent the generalized model. To evaluate the prediction performance of the generalized model on unseen data, twenty tumor traces (Group 2) that were not involved in the training of the model were used for the leave-one-out cross-validation purposes. An input data size of 35 samples (4.6 s) and 20 hidden neurons were selected for the generalized neural network. An average sliding window length of 28 data samples was used. The average initial learning period prior to the availability of the first predicted tumor position was 8.53 ± 1.03 s. Average mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.59 ± 0.13 mm and 0.56 ± 0.18 mm were obtained from Groups 1 and 2, respectively, giving an overall MAE of 0.57 ± 0.17 mm. Average root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 0.67 ± 0.36 for all the traces (0.76 ± 0.34 mm, Group 1 and 0.63 ± 0.36 mm, Group 2), is comparable to previously published results. Prediction errors are mainly due to the irregular periodicities between cycles. Since the errors from Groups 1 and 2 are within the same range, it demonstrates that this model can generalize and predict on unseen data. This is a first attempt to use an averaged MSE error surface (obtained from the prediction of different patients' tumor trajectories) to determine the parameters of a generalized neural network. This network could be deployed as a plug-and-play predictor for tumor trajectory during treatment delivery, eliminating the need for optimizing individual networks with pretreatment patient data. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Singular perturbation analysis of AOTV-related trajectory optimization problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calise, Anthony J.; Bae, Gyoung H.

1990-01-01

The problem of real time guidance and optimal control of Aeroassisted Orbit Transfer Vehicles (AOTV's) was addressed using singular perturbation theory as an underlying method of analysis. Trajectories were optimized with the objective of minimum energy expenditure in the atmospheric phase of the maneuver. Two major problem areas were addressed: optimal reentry, and synergetic plane change with aeroglide. For the reentry problem, several reduced order models were analyzed with the objective of optimal changes in heading with minimum energy loss. It was demonstrated that a further model order reduction to a single state model is possible through the application of singular perturbation theory. The optimal solution for the reduced problem defines an optimal altitude profile dependent on the current energy level of the vehicle. A separate boundary layer analysis is used to account for altitude and flight path angle dynamics, and to obtain lift and bank angle control solutions. By considering alternative approximations to solve the boundary layer problem, three guidance laws were derived, each having an analytic feedback form. The guidance laws were evaluated using a Maneuvering Reentry Research Vehicle model and all three laws were found to be near optimal. For the problem of synergetic plane change with aeroglide, a difficult terminal boundary layer control problem arises which to date is found to be analytically intractable. Thus a predictive/corrective solution was developed to satisfy the terminal constraints on altitude and flight path angle. A composite guidance solution was obtained by combining the optimal reentry solution with the predictive/corrective guidance method. Numerical comparisons with the corresponding optimal trajectory solutions show that the resulting performance is very close to optimal. An attempt was made to obtain numerically optimized trajectories for the case where heating rate is constrained. A first order state variable inequality constraint was imposed on the full order AOTV point mass equations of motion, using a simple aerodynamic heating rate model.

A three-dimensional inverse finite element analysis of the heel pad.

PubMed

Chokhandre, Snehal; Halloran, Jason P; van den Bogert, Antonie J; Erdemir, Ahmet

2012-03-01

Quantification of plantar tissue behavior of the heel pad is essential in developing computational models for predictive analysis of preventive treatment options such as footwear for patients with diabetes. Simulation based studies in the past have generally adopted heel pad properties from the literature, in return using heel-specific geometry with material properties of a different heel. In exceptional cases, patient-specific material characterization was performed with simplified two-dimensional models, without further evaluation of a heel-specific response under different loading conditions. The aim of this study was to conduct an inverse finite element analysis of the heel in order to calculate heel-specific material properties in situ. Multidimensional experimental data available from a previous cadaver study by Erdemir et al. ("An Elaborate Data Set Characterizing the Mechanical Response of the Foot," ASME J. Biomech. Eng., 131(9), pp. 094502) was used for model development, optimization, and evaluation of material properties. A specimen-specific three-dimensional finite element representation was developed. Heel pad material properties were determined using inverse finite element analysis by fitting the model behavior to the experimental data. Compression dominant loading, applied using a spherical indenter, was used for optimization of the material properties. The optimized material properties were evaluated through simulations representative of a combined loading scenario (compression and anterior-posterior shear) with a spherical indenter and also of a compression dominant loading applied using an elevated platform. Optimized heel pad material coefficients were 0.001084 MPa (μ), 9.780 (α) (with an effective Poisson's ratio (ν) of 0.475), for a first-order nearly incompressible Ogden material model. The model predicted structural response of the heel pad was in good agreement for both the optimization (<1.05% maximum tool force, 0.9% maximum tool displacement) and validation cases (6.5% maximum tool force, 15% maximum tool displacement). The inverse analysis successfully predicted the material properties for the given specimen-specific heel pad using the experimental data for the specimen. The modeling framework and results can be used for accurate predictions of the three-dimensional interaction of the heel pad with its surroundings.

Prospective Design of Anti‐Transferrin Receptor Bispecific Antibodies for Optimal Delivery into the Human Brain

PubMed Central

Kanodia, JS; Gadkar, K; Bumbaca, D; Zhang, Y; Tong, RK; Luk, W; Hoyte, K; Lu, Y; Wildsmith, KR; Couch, JA; Watts, RJ; Dennis, MS; Ernst, JA; Scearce‐Levie, K; Atwal, JK; Joseph, S

2016-01-01

Anti‐transferrin receptor (TfR)‐based bispecific antibodies have shown promise for boosting antibody uptake in the brain. Nevertheless, there are limited data on the molecular properties, including affinity required for successful development of TfR‐based therapeutics. A complex nonmonotonic relationship exists between affinity of the anti‐TfR arm and brain uptake at therapeutically relevant doses. However, the quantitative nature of this relationship and its translatability to humans is heretofore unexplored. Therefore, we developed a mechanistic pharmacokinetic‐pharmacodynamic (PK‐PD) model for bispecific anti‐TfR/BACE1 antibodies that accounts for antibody‐TfR interactions at the blood‐brain barrier (BBB) as well as the pharmacodynamic (PD) effect of anti‐BACE1 arm. The calibrated model correctly predicted the optimal anti‐TfR affinity required to maximize brain exposure of therapeutic antibodies in the cynomolgus monkey and was scaled to predict the optimal affinity of anti‐TfR bispecifics in humans. Thus, this model provides a framework for testing critical translational predictions for anti‐TfR bispecific antibodies, including choice of candidate molecule for clinical development. PMID:27299941

FIT: statistical modeling tool for transcriptome dynamics under fluctuating field conditions

PubMed Central

Iwayama, Koji; Aisaka, Yuri; Kutsuna, Natsumaro

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Considerable attention has been given to the quantification of environmental effects on organisms. In natural conditions, environmental factors are continuously changing in a complex manner. To reveal the effects of such environmental variations on organisms, transcriptome data in field environments have been collected and analyzed. Nagano et al. proposed a model that describes the relationship between transcriptomic variation and environmental conditions and demonstrated the capability to predict transcriptome variation in rice plants. However, the computational cost of parameter optimization has prevented its wide application. Results: We propose a new statistical model and efficient parameter optimization based on the previous study. We developed and released FIT, an R package that offers functions for parameter optimization and transcriptome prediction. The proposed method achieves comparable or better prediction performance within a shorter computational time than the previous method. The package will facilitate the study of the environmental effects on transcriptomic variation in field conditions. Availability and Implementation: Freely available from CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FIT/). Contact: anagano@agr.ryukoku.ac.jp Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online PMID:28158396

Optimization of critical medium components using response surface methodology for biomass and extracellular polysaccharide production by Agaricus blazei.

PubMed

Liu, Gao-Qiang; Wang, Xiao-Ling

2007-02-01

Response surface methodology (RSM) was applied to optimize the critical medium ingredients of Agaricus blazei. A three-level Box-Behnken factorial design was employed to determine the maximum biomass and extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) yields at optimum levels for glucose, yeast extract (YE), and peptone. A mathematical model was then developed to show the effect of each medium composition and its interactions on the production of mycelial biomass and EPS. The model predicted the maximum biomass yield of 10.86 g/l that appeared at glucose, YE, peptone of 26.3, 6.84, and 6.62 g/l, respectively, while a maximum EPS yield of 348.4 mg/l appeared at glucose, YE, peptone of 28.4, 4.96, 5.60 g/l, respectively. These predicted values were also verified by validation experiments. The excellent correlation between predicted and measured values of each model justifies the validity of both the response models. The results of bioreactor fermentation also show that the optimized culture medium enhanced both biomass (13.91 +/- 0.71 g/l) and EPS (363 +/- 4.1 mg/l) production by Agaricus blazei in a large-scale fermentation process.

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1992-01-01

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Predictive uncertainty analysis of plume distribution for geological carbon sequestration using sparse-grid Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Zhang, G.

2013-12-01

Because of the extensive computational burden, parametric uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for geological carbon sequestration (GCS) process based multi-phase models. The difficulty of predictive uncertainty analysis for the CO2 plume migration in realistic GCS models is not only due to the spatial distribution of the caprock and reservoir (i.e. heterogeneous model parameters), but also because the GCS optimization estimation problem has multiple local minima due to the complex nonlinear multi-phase (gas and aqueous), and multi-component (water, CO2, salt) transport equations. The geological model built by Doughty and Pruess (2004) for the Frio pilot site (Texas) was selected and assumed to represent the 'true' system, which was composed of seven different facies (geological units) distributed among 10 layers. We chose to calibrate the permeabilities of these facies. Pressure and gas saturation values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. Each simulation of the model lasts about 2 hours. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid stochastic collocation method. This surrogate response surface global optimization algorithm is firstly used to calibrate the model parameters, then prediction uncertainty of the CO2 plume position is quantified due to the propagation from parametric uncertainty in the numerical experiments, which is also compared to the actual plume from the 'true' model. Results prove that the approach is computationally efficient for multi-modal optimization and prediction uncertainty quantification for computationally expensive simulation models. Both our inverse methodology and findings can be broadly applicable to GCS in heterogeneous storage formations.

Hybrid ABC Optimized MARS-Based Modeling of the Milling Tool Wear from Milling Run Experimental Data

PubMed Central

García Nieto, Paulino José; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Ordóñez Galán, Celestino; Bernardo Sánchez, Antonio

2016-01-01

Milling cutters are important cutting tools used in milling machines to perform milling operations, which are prone to wear and subsequent failure. In this paper, a practical new hybrid model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut, as well as entry cut and exit cut, of a milling tool is proposed. The model was based on the optimization tool termed artificial bee colony (ABC) in combination with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. This optimization mechanism involved the parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Therefore, an ABC–MARS-based model was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc. Regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.94 was obtained. The ABC–MARS-based model's goodness of fit to experimental data confirmed the good performance of this model. This new model also allowed us to ascertain the most influential parameters on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Finally, conclusions of this study are exposed. PMID:28787882

Hybrid ABC Optimized MARS-Based Modeling of the Milling Tool Wear from Milling Run Experimental Data.

PubMed

García Nieto, Paulino José; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Ordóñez Galán, Celestino; Bernardo Sánchez, Antonio

2016-01-28

Milling cutters are important cutting tools used in milling machines to perform milling operations, which are prone to wear and subsequent failure. In this paper, a practical new hybrid model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut, as well as entry cut and exit cut, of a milling tool is proposed. The model was based on the optimization tool termed artificial bee colony (ABC) in combination with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. This optimization mechanism involved the parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Therefore, an ABC-MARS-based model was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc . Regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.94 was obtained. The ABC-MARS-based model's goodness of fit to experimental data confirmed the good performance of this model. This new model also allowed us to ascertain the most influential parameters on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Finally, conclusions of this study are exposed.

Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Chande, Ruchi D; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson; Ortiz-Robinson, Norma; Wayne, Jennifer S

2017-01-01

Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.

From leaf longevity to canopy seasonality: a carbon optimality phenology model for tropical evergreen forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Wu, J.; Wright, S. J.; Kitajima, K.; Pacala, S. W.

2016-12-01

Tropical evergreen forests play a key role in the global carbon, water and energy cycles. Despite apparent evergreenness, this biome shows strong seasonality in leaf litter and photosynthesis. Recent studies have suggested that this seasonality is not directly related to environmental variability but is dominated by seasonal changes of leaf development and senescence. Meanwhile, current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) can not capture this pattern because leaf life cycle is highly underrepresented. One challenge to model this leaf life cycle is the remarkable diversity in leaf longevity, ranging from several weeks to multiple years. Ecologists have proposed models where leaf longevity is regarded as a strategy to optimize carbon gain. However previous optimality models can not be readily integrated into TBMs because (i) there are still large biases in predicted leaf longevity and (ii) it is never tested whether the carbon optimality model can capture the observed seasonality in leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. In this study, we develop a new carbon optimality model for leaf demography. The novelty of our approach is two-fold. First, we incorporate a mechanistic photosynthesis model that can better estimate leaf carbon gain. Second, we consider the interspecific variations in leaf senescence rate, which strongly influence the modelled optimal carbon gain. We test our model with a leaf trait database for Panamanian evergreen forests. Then, we apply the model at seasonal scale and compare simulated seasonality of leaf litter and canopy photosynthesis with in-situ observations from several Amazonian forest sites. We find that (i) compared with original optimality model, the regression slope between observed and predicted leaf longevity increases from 0.15 to 1.04 in our new model and (ii) that our new model can capture the observed seasonal variations of leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. Our results suggest that the phenology in tropical evergreen forests might result from plant adaptation to optimize canopy carbon gain. Finally, this proposed trait-driven prognostic phenology model could potentially be incorporated into next generation TBMs to improve simulation of carbon and water fluxes in the tropics.

Modeling Brain Dynamics in Brain Tumor Patients Using the Virtual Brain.

PubMed

Aerts, Hannelore; Schirner, Michael; Jeurissen, Ben; Van Roost, Dirk; Achten, Eric; Ritter, Petra; Marinazzo, Daniele

2018-01-01

Presurgical planning for brain tumor resection aims at delineating eloquent tissue in the vicinity of the lesion to spare during surgery. To this end, noninvasive neuroimaging techniques such as functional MRI and diffusion-weighted imaging fiber tracking are currently employed. However, taking into account this information is often still insufficient, as the complex nonlinear dynamics of the brain impede straightforward prediction of functional outcome after surgical intervention. Large-scale brain network modeling carries the potential to bridge this gap by integrating neuroimaging data with biophysically based models to predict collective brain dynamics. As a first step in this direction, an appropriate computational model has to be selected, after which suitable model parameter values have to be determined. To this end, we simulated large-scale brain dynamics in 25 human brain tumor patients and 11 human control participants using The Virtual Brain, an open-source neuroinformatics platform. Local and global model parameters of the Reduced Wong-Wang model were individually optimized and compared between brain tumor patients and control subjects. In addition, the relationship between model parameters and structural network topology and cognitive performance was assessed. Results showed (1) significantly improved prediction accuracy of individual functional connectivity when using individually optimized model parameters; (2) local model parameters that can differentiate between regions directly affected by a tumor, regions distant from a tumor, and regions in a healthy brain; and (3) interesting associations between individually optimized model parameters and structural network topology and cognitive performance.

Automatic Calibration of a Semi-Distributed Hydrologic Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekele, E. G.; Nicklow, J. W.

2005-12-01

Hydrologic simulation models need to be calibrated and validated before using them for operational predictions. Spatially-distributed hydrologic models generally have a large number of parameters to capture the various physical characteristics of a hydrologic system. Manual calibration of such models is a very tedious and daunting task, and its success depends on the subjective assessment of a particular modeler, which includes knowledge of the basic approaches and interactions in the model. In order to alleviate these shortcomings, an automatic calibration model, which employs an evolutionary optimization technique known as Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO) for parameter estimation, is developed. PSO is a heuristic search algorithm that is inspired by social behavior of bird flocking or fish schooling. The newly-developed calibration model is integrated to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed hydrologic model that was developed to predict the long term impacts of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use, and management conditions. SWAT was calibrated for streamflow and sediment concentration. The calibration process involves parameter specification, whereby sensitive model parameters are identified, and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameterization was performed. The methodology is applied to a demonstration watershed known as Big Creek, which is located in southern Illinois. Application results show the effectiveness of the approach and model predictions are significantly improved.

Large-scale optimization-based classification models in medicine and biology.

PubMed

Lee, Eva K

2007-06-01

We present novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule); and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved-judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multi-group prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular degeneracy and tumor metastasis; prediction of protein localization sites; and pattern recognition of satellite images in classification of soil types. In all these applications, the predictive model yields correct classification rates ranging from 80 to 100%. This provides motivation for pursuing its use as a medical diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making tool.

Model Predictive Control-based Optimal Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Kalsi, Karanjit; Lian, Jianming

2013-01-07

Distributed energy resources, such as renewable energy resources (wind, solar), energy storage and demand response, can be used to complement conventional generators. The uncertainty and variability due to high penetration of wind makes reliable system operations and controls challenging, especially in isolated systems. In this paper, an optimal control strategy is proposed to coordinate energy storage and diesel generators to maximize wind penetration while maintaining system economics and normal operation performance. The goals of the optimization problem are to minimize fuel costs and maximize the utilization of wind while considering equipment life of generators and energy storage. Model predictive controlmore » (MPC) is used to solve a look-ahead dispatch optimization problem and the performance is compared to an open loop look-ahead dispatch problem. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the closed loop MPC in compensating for uncertainties and variability caused in the system.« less

Model Predictive Control-based Optimal Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Kalsi, Karanjit; Lian, Jianming

2013-04-03

Distributed energy resources, such as renewable energy resources (wind, solar), energy storage and demand response, can be used to complement conventional generators. The uncertainty and variability due to high penetration of wind makes reliable system operations and controls challenging, especially in isolated systems. In this paper, an optimal control strategy is proposed to coordinate energy storage and diesel generators to maximize wind penetration while maintaining system economics and normal operation performance. The goals of the optimization problem are to minimize fuel costs and maximize the utilization of wind while considering equipment life of generators and energy storage. Model predictive controlmore » (MPC) is used to solve a look-ahead dispatch optimization problem and the performance is compared to an open loop look-ahead dispatch problem. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the closed loop MPC in compensating for uncertainties and variability caused in the system.« less

A personalized medicine approach to the design of dry powder inhalers: Selecting the optimal amount of bypass.

PubMed

Kopsch, Thomas; Murnane, Darragh; Symons, Digby

2017-08-30

In dry powder inhalers (DPIs) the patient's inhalation manoeuvre strongly influences the release of drug. Drug release from a DPI may also be influenced by the size of any air bypass incorporated in the device. If the amount of bypass is high less air flows through the entrainment geometry and the release rate is lower. In this study we propose to reduce the intra- and inter-patient variations of drug release by controlling the amount of air bypass in a DPI. A fast computational method is proposed that can predict how much bypass is needed for a specified drug delivery rate for a particular patient. This method uses a meta-model which was constructed using multiphase computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. The meta-model is applied in an optimization framework to predict the required amount of bypass needed for drug delivery that is similar to a desired target release behaviour. The meta-model was successfully validated by comparing its predictions to results from additional CFD simulations. The optimization framework has been applied to identify the optimal amount of bypass needed for fictitious sample inhalation manoeuvres in order to deliver a target powder release profile for two patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

2016-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1991-01-01

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Robotic lower limb prosthesis design through simultaneous computer optimizations of human and prosthesis costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handford, Matthew L.; Srinivasan, Manoj

2016-02-01

Robotic lower limb prostheses can improve the quality of life for amputees. Development of such devices, currently dominated by long prototyping periods, could be sped up by predictive simulations. In contrast to some amputee simulations which track experimentally determined non-amputee walking kinematics, here, we explicitly model the human-prosthesis interaction to produce a prediction of the user’s walking kinematics. We obtain simulations of an amputee using an ankle-foot prosthesis by simultaneously optimizing human movements and prosthesis actuation, minimizing a weighted sum of human metabolic and prosthesis costs. The resulting Pareto optimal solutions predict that increasing prosthesis energy cost, decreasing prosthesis mass, and allowing asymmetric gaits all decrease human metabolic rate for a given speed and alter human kinematics. The metabolic rates increase monotonically with speed. Remarkably, by performing an analogous optimization for a non-amputee human, we predict that an amputee walking with an appropriately optimized robotic prosthesis can have a lower metabolic cost - even lower than assuming that the non-amputee’s ankle torques are cost-free.

Open source machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of optimal cancer drug therapies.

PubMed

Huang, Cai; Mezencev, Roman; McDonald, John F; Vannberg, Fredrik

2017-01-01

Precision medicine is a rapidly growing area of modern medical science and open source machine-learning codes promise to be a critical component for the successful development of standardized and automated analysis of patient data. One important goal of precision cancer medicine is the accurate prediction of optimal drug therapies from the genomic profiles of individual patient tumors. We introduce here an open source software platform that employs a highly versatile support vector machine (SVM) algorithm combined with a standard recursive feature elimination (RFE) approach to predict personalized drug responses from gene expression profiles. Drug specific models were built using gene expression and drug response data from the National Cancer Institute panel of 60 human cancer cell lines (NCI-60). The models are highly accurate in predicting the drug responsiveness of a variety of cancer cell lines including those comprising the recent NCI-DREAM Challenge. We demonstrate that predictive accuracy is optimized when the learning dataset utilizes all probe-set expression values from a diversity of cancer cell types without pre-filtering for genes generally considered to be "drivers" of cancer onset/progression. Application of our models to publically available ovarian cancer (OC) patient gene expression datasets generated predictions consistent with observed responses previously reported in the literature. By making our algorithm "open source", we hope to facilitate its testing in a variety of cancer types and contexts leading to community-driven improvements and refinements in subsequent applications.

Optimization of Artificial Neural Network using Evolutionary Programming for Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Hidden Failure Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, N. H.; Salim, N. A.; Othman, M. M.; Yasin, Z. M.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the Evolutionary Programming (EP) which proposed to optimize the training parameters for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of protection system hidden failure. The data has been collected from the probability of hidden failure model simulation from the historical data. The training parameters of multilayer-feedforward with backpropagation has been optimized with objective function to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE). The optimal training parameters consists of the momentum rate, learning rate and number of neurons in first hidden layer and second hidden layer is selected in EP-ANN. The IEEE 14 bus system has been tested as a case study to validate the propose technique. The results show the reliable prediction of performance validated through MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R).

Predictive modeling of surimi cake shelf life at different storage temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yatong; Hou, Yanhua; Wang, Quanfu; Cui, Bingqing; Zhang, Xiangyu; Li, Xuepeng; Li, Yujin; Liu, Yuanping

2017-04-01

The Arrhenius model of the shelf life prediction which based on the TBARS index was established in this study. The results showed that the significant changed of AV, POV, COV and TBARS with temperature increased, and the reaction rate constants k was obtained by the first order reaction kinetics model. Then the secondary model fitting was based on the Arrhenius equation. There was the optimal fitting accuracy of TBARS in the first and the secondary model fitting (R2≥0.95). The verification test indicated that the relative error between the shelf life model prediction value and actual value was within ±10%, suggesting the model could predict the shelf life of surimi cake.

Integrating Predictive Modeling with Control System Design for Managed Aquifer Recharge and Recovery Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumheller, Z. W.; Regnery, J.; Lee, J. H.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Kitanidis, P. K.; Smits, K. M.

2014-12-01

Aquifers around the world show troubling signs of irreversible depletion and seawater intrusion as climate change, population growth, and urbanization led to reduced natural recharge rates and overuse. Scientists and engineers have begun to re-investigate the technology of managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MAR) as a means to increase the reliability of the diminishing and increasingly variable groundwater supply. MAR systems offer the possibility of naturally increasing groundwater storage while improving the quality of impaired water used for recharge. Unfortunately, MAR systems remain wrought with operational challenges related to the quality and quantity of recharged and recovered water stemming from a lack of data-driven, real-time control. Our project seeks to ease the operational challenges of MAR facilities through the implementation of active sensor networks, adaptively calibrated flow and transport models, and simulation-based meta-heuristic control optimization methods. The developed system works by continually collecting hydraulic and water quality data from a sensor network embedded within the aquifer. The data is fed into an inversion algorithm, which calibrates the parameters and initial conditions of a predictive flow and transport model. The calibrated model is passed to a meta-heuristic control optimization algorithm (e.g. genetic algorithm) to execute the simulations and determine the best course of action, i.e., the optimal pumping policy for current aquifer conditions. The optimal pumping policy is manually or autonomously applied. During operation, sensor data are used to assess the accuracy of the optimal prediction and augment the pumping strategy as needed. At laboratory-scale, a small (18"H x 46"L) and an intermediate (6'H x 16'L) two-dimensional synthetic aquifer were constructed and outfitted with sensor networks. Data collection and model inversion components were developed and sensor data were validated by analytical measurements.

Predicting available water of soil from particle-size distribution and bulk density in an oasis-desert transect in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Danfeng; Gao, Guangyao; Shao, Ming'an; Fu, Bojie

2016-07-01

A detailed understanding of soil hydraulic properties, particularly the available water content of soil, (AW, cm3 cm-3), is required for optimal water management. Direct measurement of soil hydraulic properties is impractical for large scale application, but routinely available soil particle-size distribution (PSD) and bulk density can be used as proxies to develop various prediction functions. In this study, we compared the performance of the Arya and Paris (AP) model, Mohammadi and Vanclooster (MV) model, Arya and Heitman (AH) model, and Rosetta program in predicting the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) at 34 points with experimental SWCC data in an oasis-desert transect (20 × 5 km) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. The idea of the three models emerges from the similarity of the shapes of the PSD and SWCC. The AP model, MV model, and Rosetta program performed better in predicting the SWCC than the AH model. The AW determined from the SWCCs predicted by the MV model agreed better with the experimental values than those derived from the AP model and Rosetta program. The fine-textured soils were characterized by higher AW values, while the sandy soils had lower AW values. The MV model has the advantages of having robust physical basis, being independent of database-related parameters, and involving subclasses of texture data. These features make it promising in predicting soil water retention at regional scales, serving for the application of hydrological models and the optimization of soil water management.

[Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

PubMed

Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

2016-01-29

To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Prediction of human gait trajectories during the SSP using a neuromusculoskeletal modeling: A challenge for parametric optimization.

PubMed

Seyed, Mohammadali Rahmati; Mostafa, Rostami; Borhan, Beigzadeh

2018-04-27

The parametric optimization techniques have been widely employed to predict human gait trajectories; however, their applications to reveal the other aspects of gait are questionable. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not the gait prediction model is able to justify the movement trajectories for the higher average velocities. A planar, seven-segment model with sixteen muscle groups was used to represent human neuro-musculoskeletal dynamics. At first, the joint angles, ground reaction forces (GRFs) and muscle activations were predicted and validated for normal average velocity (1.55 m/s) in the single support phase (SSP) by minimizing energy expenditure, which is subject to the non-linear constraints of the gait. The unconstrained system dynamics of extended inverse dynamics (USDEID) approach was used to estimate muscle activations. Then by scaling time and applying the same procedure, the movement trajectories were predicted for higher average velocities (from 2.07 m/s to 4.07 m/s) and compared to the pattern of movement with fast walking speed. The comparison indicated a high level of compatibility between the experimental and predicted results, except for the vertical position of the center of gravity (COG). It was concluded that the gait prediction model can be effectively used to predict gait trajectories for higher average velocities.

Comparison of modelling accuracy with and without exploiting automated optical monitoring information in predicting the treated wastewater quality.

PubMed

Tomperi, Jani; Leiviskä, Kauko

2018-06-01

Traditionally the modelling in an activated sludge process has been based on solely the process measurements, but as the interest to optically monitor wastewater samples to characterize the floc morphology has increased, in the recent years the results of image analyses have been more frequently utilized to predict the characteristics of wastewater. This study shows that the traditional process measurements or the automated optical monitoring variables by themselves are not capable of developing the best predictive models for the treated wastewater quality in a full-scale wastewater treatment plant, but utilizing these variables together the optimal models, which show the level and changes in the treated wastewater quality, are achieved. By this early warning, process operation can be optimized to avoid environmental damages and economic losses. The study also shows that specific optical monitoring variables are important in modelling a certain quality parameter, regardless of the other input variables available.

The insertion of human dynamics models in the flight control loops of V/STOL research aircraft. Appendix 2: The optimal control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zipf, Mark E.

1989-01-01

An overview is presented of research work focussed on the design and insertion of classical models of human pilot dynamics within the flight control loops of V/STOL aircraft. The pilots were designed and configured for use in integrated control system research and design. The models of human behavior that were considered are: McRuer-Krendel (a single variable transfer function model); and Optimal Control Model (a multi-variable approach based on optimal control and stochastic estimation theory). These models attempt to predict human control response characteristics when confronted with compensatory tracking and state regulation tasks. An overview, mathematical description, and discussion of predictive limitations of the pilot models is presented. Design strategies and closed loop insertion configurations are introduced and considered for various flight control scenarios. Models of aircraft dynamics (both transfer function and state space based) are developed and discussed for their use in pilot design and application. Pilot design and insertion are illustrated for various flight control objectives. Results of pilot insertion within the control loops of two V/STOL research aricraft (Sikorski Black Hawk UH-60A, McDonnell Douglas Harrier II AV-8B) are presented and compared against actual pilot flight data. Conclusions are reached on the ability of the pilot models to adequately predict human behavior when confronted with similar control objectives.

Modeling and Optimization of NLDH/PVDF Ultrafiltration Nanocomposite Membrane Using Artificial Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm Hybrid.

PubMed

Arefi-Oskoui, Samira; Khataee, Alireza; Vatanpour, Vahid

2017-07-10

In this research, MgAl-CO 3 2- nanolayered double hydroxide (NLDH) was synthesized through a facile coprecipitation method, followed by a hydrothermal treatment. The prepared NLDHs were used as a hydrophilic nanofiller for improving the performance of the PVDF-based ultrafiltration membranes. The main objective of this research was to obtain the optimized formula of NLDH/PVDF nanocomposite membrane presenting the best performance using computational techniques as a cost-effective method. For this aim, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for modeling and expressing the relationship between the performance of the nanocomposite membrane (pure water flux, protein flux and flux recovery ratio) and the affecting parameters including the NLDH, PVP 29000 and polymer concentrations. The effects of the mentioned parameters and the interaction between the parameters were investigated using the contour plot predicted with the developed model. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and water contact angle techniques were applied to characterize the nanocomposite membranes and to interpret the predictions of the ANN model. The developed ANN model was introduced to genetic algorithm (GA) as a bioinspired optimizer to determine the optimum values of input parameters leading to high pure water flux, protein flux, and flux recovery ratio. The optimum values for NLDH, PVP 29000 and the PVDF concentration were determined to be 0.54, 1, and 18 wt %, respectively. The performance of the nanocomposite membrane prepared using the optimum values proposed by GA was investigated experimentally, in which the results were in good agreement with the values predicted by ANN model with error lower than 6%. This good agreement confirmed that the nanocomposite membranes prformance could be successfully modeled and optimized by ANN-GA system.

Contact Prediction for Beta and Alpha-Beta Proteins Using Integer Linear Optimization and its Impact on the First Principles 3D Structure Prediction Method ASTRO-FOLD

PubMed Central

Rajgaria, R.; Wei, Y.; Floudas, C. A.

2010-01-01

An integer linear optimization model is presented to predict residue contacts in β, α + β, and α/β proteins. The total energy of a protein is expressed as sum of a Cα – Cα distance dependent contact energy contribution and a hydrophobic contribution. The model selects contacts that assign lowest energy to the protein structure while satisfying a set of constraints that are included to enforce certain physically observed topological information. A new method based on hydrophobicity is proposed to find the β-sheet alignments. These β-sheet alignments are used as constraints for contacts between residues of β-sheets. This model was tested on three independent protein test sets and CASP8 test proteins consisting of β, α + β, α/β proteins and was found to perform very well. The average accuracy of the predictions (separated by at least six residues) was approximately 61%. The average true positive and false positive distances were also calculated for each of the test sets and they are 7.58 Å and 15.88 Å, respectively. Residue contact prediction can be directly used to facilitate the protein tertiary structure prediction. This proposed residue contact prediction model is incorporated into the first principles protein tertiary structure prediction approach, ASTRO-FOLD. The effectiveness of the contact prediction model was further demonstrated by the improvement in the quality of the protein structure ensemble generated using the predicted residue contacts for a test set of 10 proteins. PMID:20225257

Research on Improved Depth Belief Network-Based Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hongpo

2018-01-01

Quantitative analysis and prediction can help to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Quantitative prediction based on traditional model has low accuracy. The variance of model prediction based on shallow neural network is larger. In this paper, cardiovascular disease prediction model based on improved deep belief network (DBN) is proposed. Using the reconstruction error, the network depth is determined independently, and unsupervised training and supervised optimization are combined. It ensures the accuracy of model prediction while guaranteeing stability. Thirty experiments were performed independently on the Statlog (Heart) and Heart Disease Database data sets in the UCI database. Experimental results showed that the mean of prediction accuracy was 91.26% and 89.78%, respectively. The variance of prediction accuracy was 5.78 and 4.46, respectively. PMID:29854369

Maximization of the annual energy production of wind power plants by optimization of layout and yaw-based wake control: Maximization of wind plant AEP by optimization of layout and wake control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gebraad, Pieter; Thomas, Jared J.; Ning, Andrew

This paper presents a wind plant modeling and optimization tool that enables the maximization of wind plant annual energy production (AEP) using yaw-based wake steering control and layout changes. The tool is an extension of a wake engineering model describing the steady-state effects of yaw on wake velocity profiles and power productions of wind turbines in a wind plant. To make predictions of a wind plant's AEP, necessary extensions of the original wake model include coupling it with a detailed rotor model and a control policy for turbine blade pitch and rotor speed. This enables the prediction of power productionmore » with wake effects throughout a range of wind speeds. We use the tool to perform an example optimization study on a wind plant based on the Princess Amalia Wind Park. In this case study, combined optimization of layout and wake steering control increases AEP by 5%. The power gains from wake steering control are highest for region 1.5 inflow wind speeds, and they continue to be present to some extent for the above-rated inflow wind speeds. The results show that layout optimization and wake steering are complementary because significant AEP improvements can be achieved with wake steering in a wind plant layout that is already optimized to reduce wake losses.« less

Optimal stomatal behaviour around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yan-Shih; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Duursma, Remko A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Wang, Han; Baig, Sofia; Eamus, Derek; de Dios, Victor Resco; Mitchell, Patrick; Ellsworth, David S.; de Beeck, Maarten Op; Wallin, Göran; Uddling, Johan; Tarvainen, Lasse; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Cernusak, Lucas A.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Ocheltree, Troy W.; Tissue, David T.; Martin-Stpaul, Nicolas K.; Rogers, Alistair; Warren, Jeff M.; de Angelis, Paolo; Hikosaka, Kouki; Han, Qingmin; Onoda, Yusuke; Gimeno, Teresa E.; Barton, Craig V. M.; Bennie, Jonathan; Bonal, Damien; Bosc, Alexandre; Löw, Markus; Macinins-Ng, Cate; Rey, Ana; Rowland, Lucy; Setterfield, Samantha A.; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Broadmeadow, Mark S. J.; Drake, John E.; Freeman, Michael; Ghannoum, Oula; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Kelly, Jeff W.; Kikuzawa, Kihachiro; Kolari, Pasi; Koyama, Kohei; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Meir, Patrick; Lola da Costa, Antonio C.; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Salinas, Norma; Sun, Wei; Wingate, Lisa

2015-05-01

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land-surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycle changes, a global-scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. Here, we present a database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We find that stomatal behaviour differs among PFTs according to their marginal carbon cost of water use, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model and the leaf and wood economics spectrum. We also demonstrate a global relationship with climate. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of gs across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of ecosystem productivity, energy balance and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

A lightweight thermal heat switch for redundant cryocooling on satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, M.; Euler, A.; Thummes, G.

2017-04-01

A previously designed cryogenic thermal heat switch for space applications has been optimized for low mass, high structural stability, and reliability. The heat switch makes use of the large linear thermal expansion coefficient (CTE) of the thermoplastic UHMW-PE for actuation. A structure model, which includes the temperature dependent properties of the actuator, is derived to be able to predict the contact pressure between the switch parts. This pressure was used in a thermal model in order to predict the switch performance under different heat loads and operating temperatures. The two models were used to optimize the mass and stability of the switch. Its reliability was proven by cyclic actuation of the switch and by shaker tests.

Stillwater Hybrid Geo-Solar Power Plant Optimization Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendt, Daniel S.; Mines, Gregory L.; Turchi, Craig S.

2015-09-02

The Stillwater Power Plant is the first hybrid plant in the world able to bring together a medium-enthalpy geothermal unit with solar thermal and solar photovoltaic systems. Solar field and power plant models have been developed to predict the performance of the Stillwater geothermal / solar-thermal hybrid power plant. The models have been validated using operational data from the Stillwater plant. A preliminary effort to optimize performance of the Stillwater hybrid plant using optical characterization of the solar field has been completed. The Stillwater solar field optical characterization involved measurement of mirror reflectance, mirror slope error, and receiver position error.more » The measurements indicate that the solar field may generate 9% less energy than the design value if an appropriate tracking offset is not employed. A perfect tracking offset algorithm may be able to boost the solar field performance by about 15%. The validated Stillwater hybrid plant models were used to evaluate hybrid plant operating strategies including turbine IGV position optimization, ACC fan speed and turbine IGV position optimization, turbine inlet entropy control using optimization of multiple process variables, and mixed working fluid substitution. The hybrid plant models predict that each of these operating strategies could increase net power generation relative to the baseline Stillwater hybrid plant operations.« less

Optimization of the fabrication of novel stealth PLA-based nanoparticles by dispersion polymerization using D-optimal mixture design

PubMed Central

Adesina, Simeon K.; Wight, Scott A.; Akala, Emmanuel O.

2015-01-01

Purpose Nanoparticle size is important in drug delivery. Clearance of nanoparticles by cells of the reticuloendothelial system has been reported to increase with increase in particle size. Further, nanoparticles should be small enough to avoid lung or spleen filtering effects. Endocytosis and accumulation in tumor tissue by the enhanced permeability and retention effect are also processes that are influenced by particle size. We present the results of studies designed to optimize crosslinked biodegradable stealth polymeric nanoparticles fabricated by dispersion polymerization. Methods Nanoparticles were fabricated using different amounts of macromonomer, initiators, crosslinking agent and stabilizer in a dioxane/DMSO/water solvent system. Confirmation of nanoparticle formation was by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Particle size was measured by dynamic light scattering (DLS). D-optimal mixture statistical experimental design was used for the experimental runs, followed by model generation (Scheffe polynomial) and optimization with the aid of a computer software. Model verification was done by comparing particle size data of some suggested solutions to the predicted particle sizes. Results and Conclusion Data showed that average particle sizes follow the same trend as predicted by the model. Negative terms in the model corresponding to the crosslinking agent and stabilizer indicate the important factors for minimizing particle size. PMID:24059281

Optimization of the fabrication of novel stealth PLA-based nanoparticles by dispersion polymerization using D-optimal mixture design.

PubMed

Adesina, Simeon K; Wight, Scott A; Akala, Emmanuel O

2014-11-01

Nanoparticle size is important in drug delivery. Clearance of nanoparticles by cells of the reticuloendothelial system has been reported to increase with increase in particle size. Further, nanoparticles should be small enough to avoid lung or spleen filtering effects. Endocytosis and accumulation in tumor tissue by the enhanced permeability and retention effect are also processes that are influenced by particle size. We present the results of studies designed to optimize cross-linked biodegradable stealth polymeric nanoparticles fabricated by dispersion polymerization. Nanoparticles were fabricated using different amounts of macromonomer, initiators, crosslinking agent and stabilizer in a dioxane/DMSO/water solvent system. Confirmation of nanoparticle formation was by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Particle size was measured by dynamic light scattering (DLS). D-optimal mixture statistical experimental design was used for the experimental runs, followed by model generation (Scheffe polynomial) and optimization with the aid of a computer software. Model verification was done by comparing particle size data of some suggested solutions to the predicted particle sizes. Data showed that average particle sizes follow the same trend as predicted by the model. Negative terms in the model corresponding to the cross-linking agent and stabilizer indicate the important factors for minimizing particle size.

Integrated model of multiple kernel learning and differential evolution for EUR/USD trading.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Currency trading is an important area for individual investors, government policy decisions, and organization investments. In this study, we propose a hybrid approach referred to as MKL-DE, which combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) with differential evolution (DE) for trading a currency pair. MKL is used to learn a model that predicts changes in the target currency pair, whereas DE is used to generate the buy and sell signals for the target currency pair based on the relative strength index (RSI), while it is also combined with MKL as a trading signal. The new hybrid implementation is applied to EUR/USD trading, which is the most traded foreign exchange (FX) currency pair. MKL is essential for utilizing information from multiple information sources and DE is essential for formulating a trading rule based on a mixture of discrete structures and continuous parameters. Initially, the prediction model optimized by MKL predicts the returns based on a technical indicator called the moving average convergence and divergence. Next, a combined trading signal is optimized by DE using the inputs from the prediction model and technical indicator RSI obtained from multiple timeframes. The experimental results showed that trading using the prediction learned by MKL yielded consistent profits.

Dynamic rain fade compensation techniques for the advanced communications technology satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1992-01-01

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above the 30/20 GHz Ka band necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory. The ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model discerns climatological variations on the order of 0.5 deg in latitude and longitude in the continental U.S. The time-dependent portion of the model gives precise availability predictions for the 'spot beam' links of ACTS. However, the structure of the dynamic portion of the model, which yields performance parameters such as fade duration probabilities, is isomorphic to the state-variable approach of stochastic control theory and is amenable to the design of such statistical fade processing schemes which can be made specific to the particular climatological location at which they are employed.

Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

2018-05-01

The genetic algorithm (GA) was combined with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to obtain an optimized land use pattern for controlling non-point source (NPS) pollution. The performance of the combination was evaluated. The effect of the optimized land use pattern on the NPS pollution control was estimated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an assistant map was drawn to support the land use plan for the future. The Xiangxi River watershed was selected as the study area. Two scenarios were used to simulate the land use change. Under the historical trend scenario (Markov chain prediction), the forest area decreased by 2035.06 ha, and was mainly converted into paddy and dryland area. In contrast, under the optimized scenario (genetic algorithm (GA) prediction), up to 3370 ha of dryland area was converted into forest area. Spatially, the conversion of paddy and dryland into forest occurred mainly in the northwest and southeast of the watershed, where the slope land occupied a large proportion. The organic and inorganic phosphorus loads decreased by 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in the optimized scenario compared to those in the historical trend scenario. GA showed a better performance in optimized land use prediction. A comparison of the land use patterns in 2010 under the real situation and in 2020 under the optimized situation showed that Shennongjia and Shuiyuesi should convert 1201.76 ha and 1115.33 ha of dryland into forest areas, respectively, which represented the greatest changes in all regions in the watershed. The results of this study indicated that GA and the CLUE-S model can be used to optimize the land use patterns in the future and that SWAT can be used to evaluate the effect of land use optimization on non-point source pollution control. These methods may provide support for land use plan of an area.

Simultaneous prediction of muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait.

PubMed

Lin, Yi-Chung; Walter, Jonathan P; Banks, Scott A; Pandy, Marcus G; Fregly, Benjamin J

2010-03-22

Musculoskeletal models are currently the primary means for estimating in vivo muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait. These models typically couple a dynamic skeletal model with individual muscle models but rarely include articular contact models due to their high computational cost. This study evaluates a novel method for predicting muscle and contact forces simultaneously in the knee during gait. The method utilizes a 12 degree-of-freedom knee model (femur, tibia, and patella) combining muscle, articular contact, and dynamic skeletal models. Eight static optimization problems were formulated using two cost functions (one based on muscle activations and one based on contact forces) and four constraints sets (each composed of different combinations of inverse dynamic loads). The estimated muscle and contact forces were evaluated using in vivo tibial contact force data collected from a patient with a force-measuring knee implant. When the eight optimization problems were solved with added constraints to match the in vivo contact force measurements, root-mean-square errors in predicted contact forces were less than 10 N. Furthermore, muscle and patellar contact forces predicted by the two cost functions became more similar as more inverse dynamic loads were used as constraints. When the contact force constraints were removed, estimated medial contact forces were similar and lateral contact forces lower in magnitude compared to measured contact forces, with estimated muscle forces being sensitive and estimated patellar contact forces relatively insensitive to the choice of cost function and constraint set. These results suggest that optimization problem formulation coupled with knee model complexity can significantly affect predicted muscle and contact forces in the knee during gait. Further research using a complete lower limb model is needed to assess the importance of this finding to the muscle and contact force estimation process. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian cross-entropy methodology for optimal design of validation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Mahadevan, S.

2006-07-01

An important concern in the design of validation experiments is how to incorporate the mathematical model in the design in order to allow conclusive comparisons of model prediction with experimental output in model assessment. The classical experimental design methods are more suitable for phenomena discovery and may result in a subjective, expensive, time-consuming and ineffective design that may adversely impact these comparisons. In this paper, an integrated Bayesian cross-entropy methodology is proposed to perform the optimal design of validation experiments incorporating the computational model. The expected cross entropy, an information-theoretic distance between the distributions of model prediction and experimental observation, is defined as a utility function to measure the similarity of two distributions. A simulated annealing algorithm is used to find optimal values of input variables through minimizing or maximizing the expected cross entropy. The measured data after testing with the optimum input values are used to update the distribution of the experimental output using Bayes theorem. The procedure is repeated to adaptively design the required number of experiments for model assessment, each time ensuring that the experiment provides effective comparison for validation. The methodology is illustrated for the optimal design of validation experiments for a three-leg bolted joint structure and a composite helicopter rotor hub component.

Shear wave prediction using committee fuzzy model constrained by lithofacies, Zagros basin, SW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiroodi, Sadjad Kazem; Ghafoori, Mohammad; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Lashkaripour, Golamreza; Ghanadian, Mostafa

2017-02-01

The main purpose of this study is to introduce the geological controlling factors in improving an intelligence-based model to estimate shear wave velocity from seismic attributes. The proposed method includes three main steps in the framework of geological events in a complex sedimentary succession located in the Persian Gulf. First, the best attributes were selected from extracted seismic data. Second, these attributes were transformed into shear wave velocity using fuzzy inference systems (FIS) such as Sugeno's fuzzy inference (SFIS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) and optimized fuzzy inference (OFIS). Finally, a committee fuzzy machine (CFM) based on bat-inspired algorithm (BA) optimization was applied to combine previous predictions into an enhanced solution. In order to show the geological effect on improving the prediction, the main classes of predominate lithofacies in the reservoir of interest including shale, sand, and carbonate were selected and then the proposed algorithm was performed with and without lithofacies constraint. The results showed a good agreement between real and predicted shear wave velocity in the lithofacies-based model compared to the model without lithofacies especially in sand and carbonate.

CFD Analysis of Emissions for a Candidate N+3 Combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ajmani, Kumud

2015-01-01

An effort was undertaken to analyze the performance of a model Lean-Direct Injection (LDI) combustor designed to meet emissions and performance goals for NASA's N+3 program. Computational predictions of Emissions Index (EINOx) and combustor exit temperature were obtained for operation at typical power conditions expected of a small-core, high pressure-ratio (greater than 50), high T3 inlet temperature (greater than 950K) N+3 combustor. Reacting-flow computations were performed with the National Combustion Code (NCC) for a model N+3 LDI combustor, which consisted of a nine-element LDI flame-tube derived from a previous generation (N+2) thirteen-element LDI design. A consistent approach to mesh-optimization, spray-modeling and kinetics-modeling was used, in order to leverage the lessons learned from previous N+2 flame-tube analysis with the NCC. The NCC predictions for the current, non-optimized N+3 combustor operating indicated a 74% increase in NOx emissions as compared to that of the emissions-optimized, parent N+2 LDI combustor.

Optimization of technological procedure for amygdalin isolation from plum seeds (Pruni domesticae semen)

PubMed Central

Savic, Ivan M.; Nikolic, Vesna D.; Savic-Gajic, Ivana M.; Nikolic, Ljubisa B.; Ibric, Svetlana R.; Gajic, Dragoljub G.

2015-01-01

The process of amygdalin extraction from plum seeds was optimized using central composite design (CCD) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The effect of time, ethanol concentration, solid-to-liquid ratio, and temperature on the amygdalin content in the extracts was estimated using both mathematical models. The MLP 4-3-1 with exponential function in hidden layer and linear function in output layer was used for describing the extraction process. MLP model was more superior compared with CCD model due to better prediction ability. According to MLP model, the suggested optimal conditions are: time of 120 min, 100% (v/v) ethanol, solid-to liquid ratio of 1:25 (m/v) and temperature of 34.4°C. The predicted value of amygdalin content in the dried extract (25.42 g per 100 g) at these conditions was experimentally confirmed (25.30 g per 100 g of dried extract). Amygdalin (>90%) was isolated from the complex extraction mixture and structurally characterized by FT-IR, UV, and MS methods. PMID:25972881

Surface Roughness Optimization of Polyamide-6/Nanoclay Nanocomposites Using Artificial Neural Network: Genetic Algorithm Approach

PubMed Central

Moghri, Mehdi; Omidi, Mostafa; Farahnakian, Masoud

2014-01-01

During the past decade, polymer nanocomposites attracted considerable investment in research and development worldwide. One of the key factors that affect the quality of polymer nanocomposite products in machining is surface roughness. To obtain high quality products and reduce machining costs it is very important to determine the optimal machining conditions so as to achieve enhanced machining performance. The objective of this paper is to develop a predictive model using a combined design of experiments and artificial intelligence approach for optimization of surface roughness in milling of polyamide-6 (PA-6) nanocomposites. A surface roughness predictive model was developed in terms of milling parameters (spindle speed and feed rate) and nanoclay (NC) content using artificial neural network (ANN). As the present study deals with relatively small number of data obtained from full factorial design, application of genetic algorithm (GA) for ANN training is thought to be an appropriate approach for the purpose of developing accurate and robust ANN model. In the optimization phase, a GA is considered in conjunction with the explicit nonlinear function derived from the ANN to determine the optimal milling parameters for minimization of surface roughness for each PA-6 nanocomposite. PMID:24578636

Prediction of silicon oxynitride plasma etching using a generalized regression neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Lee, Byung Teak

2005-08-01

A prediction model of silicon oxynitride (SiON) etching was constructed using a neural network. Model prediction performance was improved by means of genetic algorithm. The etching was conducted in a C2F6 inductively coupled plasma. A 24 full factorial experiment was employed to systematically characterize parameter effects on SiON etching. The process parameters include radio frequency source power, bias power, pressure, and C2F6 flow rate. To test the appropriateness of the trained model, additional 16 experiments were conducted. For comparison, four types of statistical regression models were built. Compared to the best regression model, the optimized neural network model demonstrated an improvement of about 52%. The optimized model was used to infer etch mechanisms as a function of parameters. The pressure effect was noticeably large only as relatively large ion bombardment was maintained in the process chamber. Ion-bombardment-activated polymer deposition played the most significant role in interpreting the complex effect of bias power or C2F6 flow rate. Moreover, [CF2] was expected to be the predominant precursor to polymer deposition.

Modeling the BOD of Danube River in Serbia using spatial, temporal, and input variables optimized artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Šiljić Tomić, Aleksandra N; Antanasijević, Davor Z; Ristić, Mirjana Đ; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra A; Pocajt, Viktor V

2016-05-01

This paper describes the application of artificial neural network models for the prediction of biological oxygen demand (BOD) levels in the Danube River. Eighteen regularly monitored water quality parameters at 17 stations on the river stretch passing through Serbia were used as input variables. The optimization of the model was performed in three consecutive steps: firstly, the spatial influence of a monitoring station was examined; secondly, the monitoring period necessary to reach satisfactory performance was determined; and lastly, correlation analysis was applied to evaluate the relationship among water quality parameters. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) was used to evaluate model performance in the first two steps, whereas in the last step, multiple statistical indicators of performance were utilized. As a result, two optimized models were developed, a general regression neural network model (labeled GRNN-1) that covers the monitoring stations from the Danube inflow to the city of Novi Sad and a GRNN model (labeled GRNN-2) that covers the stations from the city of Novi Sad to the border with Romania. Both models demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and actually observed BOD values.

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

Optimized model tuning in medical systems.

PubMed

Kléma, Jirí; Kubalík, Jirí; Lhotská, Lenka

2005-12-01

In medical systems it is often advantageous to utilize specific problem situations (cases) in addition to or instead of a general model. Decisions are then based on relevant past cases retrieved from a case memory. The reliability of such decisions depends directly on the ability to identify cases of practical relevance to the current situation. This paper discusses issues of automated tuning in order to obtain a proper definition of mutual case similarity in a specific medical domain. The main focus is on a reasonably time-consuming optimization of the parameters that determine case retrieval and further utilization in decision making/ prediction. The two case studies - mortality prediction after cardiological intervention, and resource allocation at a spa - document that the optimization process is influenced by various characteristics of the problem domain.

A three-dimensional topology optimization model for tooth-root morphology.

PubMed

Seitz, K-F; Grabe, J; Köhne, T

2018-02-01

To obtain the root of a lower incisor through structural optimization, we used two methods: optimization with Solid Isotropic Material with Penalization (SIMP) and Soft-Kill Option (SKO). The optimization was carried out in combination with a finite element analysis in Abaqus/Standard. The model geometry was based on cone-beam tomography scans of 10 adult males with healthy bone-tooth interface. Our results demonstrate that the optimization method using SIMP for minimum compliance could not adequately predict the actual root shape. The SKO method, however, provided optimization results that were comparable to the natural root form and is therefore suitable to set up the basic topology of a dental root.

Multi-objective optimization of combustion, performance and emission parameters in a jatropha biodiesel engine using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhingra, Sunil; Bhushan, Gian; Dubey, Kashyap Kumar

2014-03-01

The present work studies and identifies the different variables that affect the output parameters involved in a single cylinder direct injection compression ignition (CI) engine using jatropha biodiesel. Response surface methodology based on Central composite design (CCD) is used to design the experiments. Mathematical models are developed for combustion parameters (Brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) and peak cylinder pressure (Pmax)), performance parameter brake thermal efficiency (BTE) and emission parameters (CO, NO x , unburnt HC and smoke) using regression techniques. These regression equations are further utilized for simultaneous optimization of combustion (BSFC, Pmax), performance (BTE) and emission (CO, NO x , HC, smoke) parameters. As the objective is to maximize BTE and minimize BSFC, Pmax, CO, NO x , HC, smoke, a multiobjective optimization problem is formulated. Nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II is used in predicting the Pareto optimal sets of solution. Experiments are performed at suitable optimal solutions for predicting the combustion, performance and emission parameters to check the adequacy of the proposed model. The Pareto optimal sets of solution can be used as guidelines for the end users to select optimal combination of engine output and emission parameters depending upon their own requirements.

Optimizing countershading camouflage.

PubMed

Cuthill, Innes C; Sanghera, N Simon; Penacchio, Olivier; Lovell, Paul George; Ruxton, Graeme D; Harris, Julie M

2016-11-15

Countershading, the widespread tendency of animals to be darker on the side that receives strongest illumination, has classically been explained as an adaptation for camouflage: obliterating cues to 3D shape and enhancing background matching. However, there have only been two quantitative tests of whether the patterns observed in different species match the optimal shading to obliterate 3D cues, and no tests of whether optimal countershading actually improves concealment or survival. We use a mathematical model of the light field to predict the optimal countershading for concealment that is specific to the light environment and then test this prediction with correspondingly patterned model "caterpillars" exposed to avian predation in the field. We show that the optimal countershading is strongly illumination-dependent. A relatively sharp transition in surface patterning from dark to light is only optimal under direct solar illumination; if there is diffuse illumination from cloudy skies or shade, the pattern provides no advantage over homogeneous background-matching coloration. Conversely, a smoother gradation between dark and light is optimal under cloudy skies or shade. The demonstration of these illumination-dependent effects of different countershading patterns on predation risk strongly supports the comparative evidence showing that the type of countershading varies with light environment.

Optimization of thermal processing of canned mussels.

PubMed

Ansorena, M R; Salvadori, V O

2011-10-01

The design and optimization of thermal processing of solid-liquid food mixtures, such as canned mussels, requires the knowledge of the thermal history at the slowest heating point. In general, this point does not coincide with the geometrical center of the can, and the results show that it is located along the axial axis at a height that depends on the brine content. In this study, a mathematical model for the prediction of the temperature at this point was developed using the discrete transfer function approach. Transfer function coefficients were experimentally obtained, and prediction equations fitted to consider other can dimensions and sampling interval. This model was coupled with an optimization routine in order to search for different retort temperature profiles to maximize a quality index. Both constant retort temperature (CRT) and variable retort temperature (VRT; discrete step-wise and exponential) were considered. In the CRT process, the optimal retort temperature was always between 134 °C and 137 °C, and high values of thiamine retention were achieved. A significant improvement in surface quality index was obtained for optimal VRT profiles compared to optimal CRT. The optimization procedure shown in this study produces results that justify its utilization in the industry.

Robust model predictive control for satellite formation keeping with eccentricity/inclination vector separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yeerang; Jung, Youeyun; Bang, Hyochoong

2018-05-01

This study presents model predictive formation control based on an eccentricity/inclination vector separation strategy. Alternative collision avoidance can be accomplished by using eccentricity/inclination vectors and adding a simple goal function term for optimization process. Real-time control is also achievable with model predictive controller based on convex formulation. Constraint-tightening approach is address as well improve robustness of the controller, and simulation results are presented to verify performance enhancement for the proposed approach.

Computer-assisted engineering of the synthetic pathway for biodegradation of a toxic persistent pollutant.

PubMed

Kurumbang, Nagendra Prasad; Dvorak, Pavel; Bendl, Jaroslav; Brezovsky, Jan; Prokop, Zbynek; Damborsky, Jiri

2014-03-21

Anthropogenic halogenated compounds were unknown to nature until the industrial revolution, and microorganisms have not had sufficient time to evolve enzymes for their degradation. The lack of efficient enzymes and natural pathways can be addressed through a combination of protein and metabolic engineering. We have assembled a synthetic route for conversion of the highly toxic and recalcitrant 1,2,3-trichloropropane to glycerol in Escherichia coli, and used it for a systematic study of pathway bottlenecks. Optimal ratios of enzymes for the maximal production of glycerol, and minimal toxicity of metabolites were predicted using a mathematical model. The strains containing the expected optimal ratios of enzymes were constructed and characterized for their viability and degradation efficiency. Excellent agreement between predicted and experimental data was observed. The validated model was used to quantitatively describe the kinetic limitations of currently available enzyme variants and predict improvements required for further pathway optimization. This highlights the potential of forward engineering of microorganisms for the degradation of toxic anthropogenic compounds.

Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

PubMed

Werkman, Marleen; Tildesley, Michael J; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Keeling, Matt J

2016-12-01

Mathematical models are invaluable tools for quantifying potential epidemics and devising optimal control strategies in case of an outbreak. State-of-the-art models increasingly require detailed individual farm-based and sensitive data, which may not be available due to either lack of capacity for data collection or privacy concerns. However, in many situations, aggregated data are available for use. In this study, we systematically investigate the accuracy of predictions made by mathematical models initialised with varying data aggregations, using the UK 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic as a case study. We consider the scenario when the only data available are aggregated into spatial grid cells, and develop a metapopulation model where individual farms in a single subpopulation are assumed to behave uniformly and transmit randomly. We also adapt this standard metapopulation model to capture heterogeneity in farm size and composition, using farm census data. Our results show that homogeneous models based on aggregated data overestimate final epidemic size but can perform well for predicting spatial spread. Recognising heterogeneity in farm sizes improves predictions of the final epidemic size, identifying risk areas, determining the likelihood of epidemic take-off and identifying the optimal control strategy. In conclusion, in cases where individual farm-based data are not available, models can still generate meaningful predictions, although care must be taken in their interpretation and use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The cost of quality: Implementing generalization and suppression for anonymizing biomedical data with minimal information loss.

PubMed

Kohlmayer, Florian; Prasser, Fabian; Kuhn, Klaus A

2015-12-01

With the ARX data anonymization tool structured biomedical data can be de-identified using syntactic privacy models, such as k-anonymity. Data is transformed with two methods: (a) generalization of attribute values, followed by (b) suppression of data records. The former method results in data that is well suited for analyses by epidemiologists, while the latter method significantly reduces loss of information. Our tool uses an optimal anonymization algorithm that maximizes output utility according to a given measure. To achieve scalability, existing optimal anonymization algorithms exclude parts of the search space by predicting the outcome of data transformations regarding privacy and utility without explicitly applying them to the input dataset. These optimizations cannot be used if data is transformed with generalization and suppression. As optimal data utility and scalability are important for anonymizing biomedical data, we had to develop a novel method. In this article, we first confirm experimentally that combining generalization with suppression significantly increases data utility. Next, we proof that, within this coding model, the outcome of data transformations regarding privacy and utility cannot be predicted. As a consequence, existing algorithms fail to deliver optimal data utility. We confirm this finding experimentally. The limitation of previous work can be overcome at the cost of increased computational complexity. However, scalability is important for anonymizing data with user feedback. Consequently, we identify properties of datasets that may be predicted in our context and propose a novel and efficient algorithm. Finally, we evaluate our solution with multiple datasets and privacy models. This work presents the first thorough investigation of which properties of datasets can be predicted when data is anonymized with generalization and suppression. Our novel approach adopts existing optimization strategies to our context and combines different search methods. The experiments show that our method is able to efficiently solve a broad spectrum of anonymization problems. Our work shows that implementing syntactic privacy models is challenging and that existing algorithms are not well suited for anonymizing data with transformation models which are more complex than generalization alone. As such models have been recommended for use in the biomedical domain, our results are of general relevance for de-identifying structured biomedical data. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001; Gupta, Shikha

Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models wasmore » performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive abilities of the interspecies GRNN model to predict the carcinogenic potency of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Global robust models constructed for carcinogenicity prediction of diverse chemicals. • Tanimoto/BDS test revealed structural diversity of chemicals and nonlinearity in data. • PNN/GRNN successfully predicted carcinogenicity/carcinogenic potency of chemicals. • Developed interspecies PNN/GRNN models for carcinogenicity prediction. • Proposed models can be used as tool to predict carcinogenicity of new chemicals.« less

Optimization of Biomathematical Model Predictions for Cognitive Performance Impairment in Individuals: Accounting for Unknown Traits and Uncertain States in Homeostatic and Circadian Processes

PubMed Central

Van Dongen, Hans P. A.; Mott, Christopher G.; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Mollicone, Daniel J.; McKenzie, Frederic D.; Dinges, David F.

2007-01-01

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy. These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used to predict performance on the basis of the combination of a sleep homeostatic process and a circadian process. Employing the two-process model with the Bayesian forecasting procedure to predict performance for individual subjects in the face of unknown traits and uncertain states entailed subject-specific optimization of 3 trait parameters (homeostatic build-up rate, circadian amplitude, and basal performance level) and 2 initial state parameters (initial homeostatic state and circadian phase angle). Prior information about the distribution of the trait parameters in the population at large was extracted from psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance measurements in 10 subjects who had participated in a laboratory experiment with 88 h of total sleep deprivation. The PVT performance data of 3 additional subjects in this experiment were set aside beforehand for use in prospective computer simulations. The simulations involved updating the subject-specific model parameters every time the next performance measurement became available, and then predicting performance 24 h ahead. Comparison of the predictions to the subjects' actual data revealed that as more data became available for the individuals at hand, the performance predictions became increasingly more accurate and had progressively smaller 95% confidence intervals, as the model parameters converged efficiently to those that best characterized each individual. Even when more challenging simulations were run (mimicking a change in the initial homeostatic state; simulating the data to be sparse), the predictions were still considerably more accurate than would have been achieved by the two-process model alone. Although the work described here is still limited to periods of consolidated wakefulness with stable circadian rhythms, the results obtained thus far indicate that the Bayesian forecasting procedure can successfully overcome some of the major outstanding challenges for biomathematical prediction of cognitive performance in operational settings. Citation: Van Dongen HPA; Mott CG; Huang JK; Mollicone DJ; McKenzie FD; Dinges DF. Optimization of biomathematical model predictions for cognitive performance impairment in individuals: accounting for unknown traits and uncertain states in homeostatic and circadian processes. SLEEP 2007;30(9):1129-1143. PMID:17910385

Mental workload prediction based on attentional resource allocation and information processing.

PubMed

Xiao, Xu; Wanyan, Xiaoru; Zhuang, Damin

2015-01-01

Mental workload is an important component in complex human-machine systems. The limited applicability of empirical workload measures produces the need for workload modeling and prediction methods. In the present study, a mental workload prediction model is built on the basis of attentional resource allocation and information processing to ensure pilots' accuracy and speed in understanding large amounts of flight information on the cockpit display interface. Validation with an empirical study of an abnormal attitude recovery task showed that this model's prediction of mental workload highly correlated with experimental results. This mental workload prediction model provides a new tool for optimizing human factors interface design and reducing human errors.

Framework for Smart Electronic Health Record- Linked Predictive Models to Optimize Care for Complex Digestive Diseases

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

surgeries, hospitalizations, etc). Once our model is developed we hope to apply our model at an outside institution, specifically University of...to build predictive models with the hope of improving disease management. It is difficult to find these factors in EMR systems as the...death, surgeries, hospitalizations, etc.) Once our model is developed, we hope to apply the model to de-identified data set from the University of

Analysis and Prediction of Myristoylation Sites Using the mRMR Method, the IFS Method and an Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm.

PubMed

Wang, ShaoPeng; Zhang, Yu-Hang; Huang, GuoHua; Chen, Lei; Cai, Yu-Dong

2017-01-01

Myristoylation is an important hydrophobic post-translational modification that is covalently bound to the amino group of Gly residues on the N-terminus of proteins. The many diverse functions of myristoylation on proteins, such as membrane targeting, signal pathway regulation and apoptosis, are largely due to the lipid modification, whereas abnormal or irregular myristoylation on proteins can lead to several pathological changes in the cell. To better understand the function of myristoylated sites and to correctly identify them in protein sequences, this study conducted a novel computational investigation on identifying myristoylation sites in protein sequences. A training dataset with 196 positive and 84 negative peptide segments were obtained. Four types of features derived from the peptide segments following the myristoylation sites were used to specify myristoylatedand non-myristoylated sites. Then, feature selection methods including maximum relevance and minimum redundancy (mRMR), incremental feature selection (IFS), and a machine learning algorithm (extreme learning machine method) were adopted to extract optimal features for the algorithm to identify myristoylation sites in protein sequences, thereby building an optimal prediction model. As a result, 41 key features were extracted and used to build an optimal prediction model. The effectiveness of the optimal prediction model was further validated by its performance on a test dataset. Furthermore, detailed analyses were also performed on the extracted 41 features to gain insight into the mechanism of myristoylation modification. This study provided a new computational method for identifying myristoylation sites in protein sequences. We believe that it can be a useful tool to predict myristoylation sites from protein sequences. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Optimality Based Dynamic Plant Allocation Model: Predicting Acclimation Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Drewry, D.; Kumar, P.; Sivapalan, M.

2009-12-01

Allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts determines the future plant status and is important to predict long term (months to years) vegetated land surface fluxes. Plants have the ability to modify their allometry and exhibit plasticity by varying the relative proportions of the structural biomass contained in each of its tissue. The ability of plants to be plastic provides them with the potential to acclimate to changing environmental conditions in order to enhance their probability of survival. Allometry based allocation models and other empirical allocation models do not account for plant plasticity cause by acclimation due to environmental changes. In the absence of a detailed understanding of the various biophysical processes involved in plant growth and development an optimality approach is adopted here to predict carbon allocation in plants. Existing optimality based models of plant growth are either static or involve considerable empiricism. In this work, we adopt an optimality based approach (coupled with limitations on plant plasticity) to predict the dynamic allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts. We explore the applicability of this approach using several optimization variables such as net primary productivity, net transpiration, realized growth rate, total end of growing season reproductive biomass etc. We use this approach to predict the dynamic nature of plant acclimation in its allocation of carbon to different plant parts under current and future climate scenarios. This approach is designed as a growth sub-model in the multi-layer canopy plant model (MLCPM) and is used to obtain land surface fluxes and plant properties over the growing season. The framework of this model is such that it retains the generality and can be applied to different types of ecosystems. We test this approach using the data from free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments using soybean crop at the Soy-FACE research site. Our results show that there are significant changes in the allocation patterns of vegetation when subjected to elevated CO2 indicating that our model is able to account for plant plasticity arising from acclimation. Soybeans when grown under elevated CO2, increased their allocation to structural components such as leaves and decreased their allocation to reproductive biomass. This demonstrates that plant acclimation causes lower than expected crop yields when grown under elevated CO2. Our findings can have serious implications in estimating future crop yields under climate change scenarios where it is widely expected that rising CO2 will fully offset losses due to climate change.

Template-based and free modeling of I-TASSER and QUARK pipelines using predicted contact maps in CASP12.

PubMed

Zhang, Chengxin; Mortuza, S M; He, Baoji; Wang, Yanting; Zhang, Yang

2018-03-01

We develop two complementary pipelines, "Zhang-Server" and "QUARK", based on I-TASSER and QUARK pipelines for template-based modeling (TBM) and free modeling (FM), and test them in the CASP12 experiment. The combination of I-TASSER and QUARK successfully folds three medium-size FM targets that have more than 150 residues, even though the interplay between the two pipelines still awaits further optimization. Newly developed sequence-based contact prediction by NeBcon plays a critical role to enhance the quality of models, particularly for FM targets, by the new pipelines. The inclusion of NeBcon predicted contacts as restraints in the QUARK simulations results in an average TM-score of 0.41 for the best in top five predicted models, which is 37% higher than that by the QUARK simulations without contacts. In particular, there are seven targets that are converted from non-foldable to foldable (TM-score >0.5) due to the use of contact restraints in the simulations. Another additional feature in the current pipelines is the local structure quality prediction by ResQ, which provides a robust residue-level modeling error estimation. Despite the success, significant challenges still remain in ab initio modeling of multi-domain proteins and folding of β-proteins with complicated topologies bound by long-range strand-strand interactions. Improvements on domain boundary and long-range contact prediction, as well as optimal use of the predicted contacts and multiple threading alignments, are critical to address these issues seen in the CASP12 experiment. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Vis-NIR spectroscopic pattern recognition combined with SG smoothing applied to breed screening of transgenic sugarcane].

PubMed

Liu, Gui-Song; Guo, Hao-Song; Pan, Tao; Wang, Ji-Hua; Cao, Gan

2014-10-01

Based on Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing screening, principal component analysis (PCA) combined with separately supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) were used for non-destructive visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) detection for breed screening of transgenic sugarcane. A random and stability-dependent framework of calibration, prediction, and validation was proposed. A total of 456 samples of sugarcane leaves planting in the elongating stage were collected from the field, which was composed of 306 transgenic (positive) samples containing Bt and Bar gene and 150 non-transgenic (negative) samples. A total of 156 samples (negative 50 and positive 106) were randomly selected as the validation set; the remaining samples (negative 100 and positive 200, a total of 300 samples) were used as the modeling set, and then the modeling set was subdivided into calibration (negative 50 and positive 100, a total of 150 samples) and prediction sets (negative 50 and positive 100, a total of 150 samples) for 50 times. The number of SG smoothing points was ex- panded, while some modes of higher derivative were removed because of small absolute value, and a total of 264 smoothing modes were used for screening. The pairwise combinations of first three principal components were used, and then the optimal combination of principal components was selected according to the model effect. Based on all divisions of calibration and prediction sets and all SG smoothing modes, the SG-PCA-LDA and SG-PCA-HCA models were established, the model parameters were optimized based on the average prediction effect for all divisions to produce modeling stability. Finally, the model validation was performed by validation set. With SG smoothing, the modeling accuracy and stability of PCA-LDA, PCA-HCA were signif- icantly improved. For the optimal SG-PCA-LDA model, the recognition rate of positive and negative validation samples were 94.3%, 96.0%; and were 92.5%, 98.0% for the optimal SG-PCA-LDA model, respectively. Vis-NIR spectro- scopic pattern recognition combined with SG smoothing could be used for accurate recognition of transgenic sugarcane leaves, and provided a convenient screening method for transgenic sugarcane breeding.

Foraging optimally for home ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, Michael S.; Powell, Roger A.

2012-01-01

Economic models predict behavior of animals based on the presumption that natural selection has shaped behaviors important to an animal's fitness to maximize benefits over costs. Economic analyses have shown that territories of animals are structured by trade-offs between benefits gained from resources and costs of defending them. Intuitively, home ranges should be similarly structured, but trade-offs are difficult to assess because there are no costs of defense, thus economic models of home-range behavior are rare. We present economic models that predict how home ranges can be efficient with respect to spatially distributed resources, discounted for travel costs, under 2 strategies of optimization, resource maximization and area minimization. We show how constraints such as competitors can influence structure of homes ranges through resource depression, ultimately structuring density of animals within a population and their distribution on a landscape. We present simulations based on these models to show how they can be generally predictive of home-range behavior and the mechanisms that structure the spatial distribution of animals. We also show how contiguous home ranges estimated statistically from location data can be misleading for animals that optimize home ranges on landscapes with patchily distributed resources. We conclude with a summary of how we applied our models to nonterritorial black bears (Ursus americanus) living in the mountains of North Carolina, where we found their home ranges were best predicted by an area-minimization strategy constrained by intraspecific competition within a social hierarchy. Economic models can provide strong inference about home-range behavior and the resources that structure home ranges by offering falsifiable, a priori hypotheses that can be tested with field observations.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Modeling and optimization of lime-based stabilization in high alkaline arsenic-bearing sludges with a central composite design.

PubMed

Lei, Jie; Peng, Bing; Min, Xiaobo; Liang, Yanjie; You, Yang; Chai, Liyuan

2017-04-16

This study focuses on the modeling and optimization of lime-based stabilization in high alkaline arsenic-bearing sludges (HAABS) and describes the relationship between the arsenic leachate concentration (ALC) and stabilization parameters to develop a prediction model for obtaining the optimal process parameters and conditions. A central composite design (CCD) along with response surface methodology (RSM) was conducted to model and investigate the stabilization process with three independent variables: the Ca/As mole ratio, reaction time and liquid/solid ratio, along with their interactions. The obvious characteristic changes of the HAABS before and after stabilization were verified by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), particle size distribution (PSD) and the community bureau of reference (BCR) sequential extraction procedure. A prediction model Y (ALC) with a statistically significant P-value <0.01 and high correlation coefficient R 2 = 93.22% was obtained. The optimal parameters were successfully predicted by the model for the minimum ALC of 0.312 mg/L, which was validated with the experimental result (0.306 mg/L). The XRD, SEM and PSD results indicated that crystal calcium arsenate Ca 5 (AsO 4 ) 3 OH and Ca 4 (OH) 2 (AsO 4 ) 2 ·4H 2 O formation played an important role in minimizing the ALC. The BCR sequential extraction results demonstrated that the treated HAABS were stable in a weak acidic environment for a short time but posed a potential environmental risk after a long time. The results clearly confirm that the proposed three-factor CCD is an effective approach for modeling the stabilization of HAABS. However, further solidification technology is suggested for use after lime-based stabilization treatment of arsenic-bearing sludges.

The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germe, Agathe; Sévellec, Florian; Mignot, Juliette; Fedorov, Alexey; Nguyen, Sébastien; Swingedouw, Didier

2017-12-01

Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Mean Temperature (NAMT) have been computed via an optimization procedure using a linear adjoint to a realistic ocean general circulation model. The spatial pattern of the identified perturbations, localized in the North Atlantic, has the largest magnitude between 1000 and 4000 m depth. In the present study, the impacts of these perturbations on NAMT, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and on climate in general are investigated in a global coupled model that uses the same ocean model as was used to compute the three-dimensional optimal perturbations. In the coupled model, these perturbations induce AMOC and NAMT anomalies peaking after 5 and 10 years, respectively, generally consistent with the ocean-only linear predictions. To further understand their impact, their magnitude was varied in a broad range. For initial perturbations with a magnitude comparable to the internal variability of the coupled model, the model response exhibits a strong signature in sea surface temperature and precipitation over North America and the Sahel region. The existence and impacts of these ocean perturbations have important implications for decadal prediction: they can be seen either as a source of predictability or uncertainty, depending on whether the current observing system can detect them or not. In fact, comparing the magnitude of the imposed perturbations with the uncertainty of available ocean observations such as Argo data or ocean state estimates suggests that only the largest perturbations used in this study could be detectable. This highlights the importance for decadal climate prediction of accurate ocean density initialisation in the North Atlantic at intermediate and greater depths.

Developing a clinical utility framework to evaluate prediction models in radiogenomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yirong; Liu, Jie; Munoz del Rio, Alejandro; Page, David C.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Peissig, Peggy; Onitilo, Adedayo A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

2015-03-01

Combining imaging and genetic information to predict disease presence and behavior is being codified into an emerging discipline called "radiogenomics." Optimal evaluation methodologies for radiogenomics techniques have not been established. We aim to develop a clinical decision framework based on utility analysis to assess prediction models for breast cancer. Our data comes from a retrospective case-control study, collecting Gail model risk factors, genetic variants (single nucleotide polymorphisms-SNPs), and mammographic features in Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lexicon. We first constructed three logistic regression models built on different sets of predictive features: (1) Gail, (2) Gail+SNP, and (3) Gail+SNP+BI-RADS. Then, we generated ROC curves for three models. After we assigned utility values for each category of findings (true negative, false positive, false negative and true positive), we pursued optimal operating points on ROC curves to achieve maximum expected utility (MEU) of breast cancer diagnosis. We used McNemar's test to compare the predictive performance of the three models. We found that SNPs and BI-RADS features augmented the baseline Gail model in terms of the area under ROC curve (AUC) and MEU. SNPs improved sensitivity of the Gail model (0.276 vs. 0.147) and reduced specificity (0.855 vs. 0.912). When additional mammographic features were added, sensitivity increased to 0.457 and specificity to 0.872. SNPs and mammographic features played a significant role in breast cancer risk estimation (p-value < 0.001). Our decision framework comprising utility analysis and McNemar's test provides a novel framework to evaluate prediction models in the realm of radiogenomics.

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

2017-03-01

The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

An optimal state estimation model of sensory integration in human postural balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Arthur D.

2005-09-01

We propose a model for human postural balance, combining state feedback control with optimal state estimation. State estimation uses an internal model of body and sensor dynamics to process sensor information and determine body orientation. Three sensory modalities are modeled: joint proprioception, vestibular organs in the inner ear, and vision. These are mated with a two degree-of-freedom model of body dynamics in the sagittal plane. Linear quadratic optimal control is used to design state feedback and estimation gains. Nine free parameters define the control objective and the signal-to-noise ratios of the sensors. The model predicts statistical properties of human sway in terms of covariance of ankle and hip motion. These predictions are compared with normal human responses to alterations in sensory conditions. With a single parameter set, the model successfully reproduces the general nature of postural motion as a function of sensory environment. Parameter variations reveal that the model is highly robust under normal sensory conditions, but not when two or more sensors are inaccurate. This behavior is similar to that of normal human subjects. We propose that age-related sensory changes may be modeled with decreased signal-to-noise ratios, and compare the model's behavior with degraded sensors against experimental measurements from older adults. We also examine removal of the model's vestibular sense, which leads to instability similar to that observed in bilateral vestibular loss subjects. The model may be useful for predicting which sensors are most critical for balance, and how much they can deteriorate before posture becomes unstable.

Near Real-Time Optimal Prediction of Adverse Events in Aviation Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Rodney Alexander; Das, Santanu

2010-01-01

The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we demonstrate how to recast the anomaly prediction problem into a form whose solution is accessible as a level-crossing prediction problem. The level-crossing prediction problem has an elegant, optimal, yet untested solution under certain technical constraints, and only when the appropriate modeling assumptions are made. As such, we will thoroughly investigate the resilience of these modeling assumptions, and show how they affect final performance. Finally, the predictive capability of this method will be assessed by quantitative means, using both validation and test data containing anomalies or adverse events from real aviation data sets that have previously been identified as operationally significant by domain experts. It will be shown that the formulation proposed yields a lower false alarm rate on average than competing methods based on similarly advanced concepts, and a higher correct detection rate than a standard method based upon exceedances that is commonly used for prediction.

SU-F-T-342: Dosimetric Constraint Prediction Guided Automatic Mulit-Objective Optimization for Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, T; Zhou, L; Li, Y

Purpose: For intensity modulated radiotherapy, the plan optimization is time consuming with difficulties of selecting objectives and constraints, and their relative weights. A fast and automatic multi-objective optimization algorithm with abilities to predict optimal constraints and manager their trade-offs can help to solve this problem. Our purpose is to develop such a framework and algorithm for a general inverse planning. Methods: There are three main components contained in this proposed multi-objective optimization framework: prediction of initial dosimetric constraints, further adjustment of constraints and plan optimization. We firstly use our previously developed in-house geometry-dosimetry correlation model to predict the optimal patient-specificmore » dosimetric endpoints, and treat them as initial dosimetric constraints. Secondly, we build an endpoint(organ) priority list and a constraint adjustment rule to repeatedly tune these constraints from their initial values, until every single endpoint has no room for further improvement. Lastly, we implement a voxel-independent based FMO algorithm for optimization. During the optimization, a model for tuning these voxel weighting factors respecting to constraints is created. For framework and algorithm evaluation, we randomly selected 20 IMRT prostate cases from the clinic and compared them with our automatic generated plans, in both the efficiency and plan quality. Results: For each evaluated plan, the proposed multi-objective framework could run fluently and automatically. The voxel weighting factor iteration time varied from 10 to 30 under an updated constraint, and the constraint tuning time varied from 20 to 30 for every case until no more stricter constraint is allowed. The average total costing time for the whole optimization procedure is ∼30mins. By comparing the DVHs, better OAR dose sparing could be observed in automatic generated plan, for 13 out of the 20 cases, while others are with competitive results. Conclusion: We have successfully developed a fast and automatic multi-objective optimization for intensity modulated radiotherapy. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No: 81571771)« less

Systematic optimization model and algorithm for binding sequence selection in computational enzyme design

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaoqiang; Han, Kehang; Zhu, Yushan

2013-01-01

A systematic optimization model for binding sequence selection in computational enzyme design was developed based on the transition state theory of enzyme catalysis and graph-theoretical modeling. The saddle point on the free energy surface of the reaction system was represented by catalytic geometrical constraints, and the binding energy between the active site and transition state was minimized to reduce the activation energy barrier. The resulting hyperscale combinatorial optimization problem was tackled using a novel heuristic global optimization algorithm, which was inspired and tested by the protein core sequence selection problem. The sequence recapitulation tests on native active sites for two enzyme catalyzed hydrolytic reactions were applied to evaluate the predictive power of the design methodology. The results of the calculation show that most of the native binding sites can be successfully identified if the catalytic geometrical constraints and the structural motifs of the substrate are taken into account. Reliably predicting active site sequences may have significant implications for the creation of novel enzymes that are capable of catalyzing targeted chemical reactions. PMID:23649589

Using Central Composite Experimental Design to Optimize the Degradation of Tylosin from Aqueous Solution by Photo-Fenton Reaction

PubMed Central

Sarrai, Abd Elaziz; Hanini, Salah; Merzouk, Nachida Kasbadji; Tassalit, Djilali; Szabó, Tibor; Hernádi, Klára; Nagy, László

2016-01-01

The feasibility of the application of the Photo-Fenton process in the treatment of aqueous solution contaminated by Tylosin antibiotic was evaluated. The Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on Central Composite Design (CCD) was used to evaluate and optimize the effect of hydrogen peroxide, ferrous ion concentration and initial pH as independent variables on the total organic carbon (TOC) removal as the response function. The interaction effects and optimal parameters were obtained by using MODDE software. The significance of the independent variables and their interactions was tested by means of analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a 95% confidence level. Results show that the concentration of the ferrous ion and pH were the main parameters affecting TOC removal, while peroxide concentration had a slight effect on the reaction. The optimum operating conditions to achieve maximum TOC removal were determined. The model prediction for maximum TOC removal was compared to the experimental result at optimal operating conditions. A good agreement between the model prediction and experimental results confirms the soundness of the developed model. PMID:28773551

Modeling of organic solar cell using response surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suliman, Rajab; Mitul, Abu Farzan; Mohammad, Lal; Djira, Gemechis; Pan, Yunpeng; Qiao, Qiquan

Polymer solar cells have drawn much attention during the past few decades due to their low manufacturing cost and incompatibility for flexible substrates. In solution-processed organic solar cells, the optimal thickness, annealing temperature, and morphology are key components to achieving high efficiency. In this work, response surface methodology (RSM) is used to find optimal fabrication conditions for polymer solar cells. In order to optimize cell efficiency, the central composite design (CCD) with three independent variables polymer concentration, polymer-fullerene ratio, and active layer spinning speed was used. Optimal device performance was achieved using 10.25 mg/ml polymer concentration, 0.42 polymer-fullerene ratio, and 1624 rpm of active layer spinning speed. The predicted response (the efficiency) at the optimum stationary point was found to be 5.23% for the Poly(diketopyrrolopyrrole-terthiophene) (PDPP3T)/PC60BM solar cells. Moreover, 97% of the variation in the device performance was explained by the best model. Finally, the experimental results are consistent with the CCD prediction, which proves that this is a promising and appropriate model for optimum device performance and fabrication conditions.

Towards inverse modeling of turbidity currents: The inverse lock-exchange problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesshafft, Lutz; Meiburg, Eckart; Kneller, Ben; Marsden, Alison

2011-04-01

A new approach is introduced for turbidite modeling, leveraging the potential of computational fluid dynamics methods to simulate the flow processes that led to turbidite formation. The practical use of numerical flow simulation for the purpose of turbidite modeling so far is hindered by the need to specify parameters and initial flow conditions that are a priori unknown. The present study proposes a method to determine optimal simulation parameters via an automated optimization process. An iterative procedure matches deposit predictions from successive flow simulations against available localized reference data, as in practice may be obtained from well logs, and aims at convergence towards the best-fit scenario. The final result is a prediction of the entire deposit thickness and local grain size distribution. The optimization strategy is based on a derivative-free, surrogate-based technique. Direct numerical simulations are performed to compute the flow dynamics. A proof of concept is successfully conducted for the simple test case of a two-dimensional lock-exchange turbidity current. The optimization approach is demonstrated to accurately retrieve the initial conditions used in a reference calculation.

Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modelling heteroscedastic residual errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, McInerney; Mark, Thyer; Dmitri, Kavetski; George, Kuczera

2017-04-01

This study provides guidance to hydrological researchers which enables them to provide probabilistic predictions of daily streamflow with the best reliability and precision for different catchment types (e.g. high/low degree of ephemerality). Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. It is commonly known that hydrological model residual errors are heteroscedastic, i.e. there is a pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. Although multiple approaches exist for representing this heteroscedasticity, few studies have undertaken a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of these approaches. This study fills this research gap by evaluating 8 common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter, lambda) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and USA, and two lumped hydrological models. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modelling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with lambda of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (lambda=0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

Predictive Performance of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models for the Effect of Food on Oral Drug Absorption: Current Status

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ping; Pan, Yuzhuo; Wagner, Christian

2017-01-01

A comprehensive search in literature and published US Food and Drug Administration reviews was conducted to assess whether physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling could be prospectively used to predict clinical food effect on oral drug absorption. Among the 48 resulted food effect predictions, ∼50% were predicted within 1.25‐fold of observed, and 75% within 2‐fold. Dissolution rate and precipitation time were commonly optimized parameters when PBPK modeling was not able to capture the food effect. The current work presents a knowledgebase for documenting PBPK experience to predict food effect. PMID:29168611

Demonstration of leapfrogging for implementing nonlinear model predictive control on a heat exchanger.

PubMed

Sridhar, Upasana Manimegalai; Govindarajan, Anand; Rhinehart, R Russell

2016-01-01

This work reveals the applicability of a relatively new optimization technique, Leapfrogging, for both nonlinear regression modeling and a methodology for nonlinear model-predictive control. Both are relatively simple, yet effective. The application on a nonlinear, pilot-scale, shell-and-tube heat exchanger reveals practicability of the techniques. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

PubMed Central

Puntel, Laila A.; Sawyer, John E.; Barker, Daniel W.; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J.; Moore, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.

2016-01-01

Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L.) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L.) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40–50 kg N ha-1). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward agronomic, economic, and environmental sustainability. PMID:27891133

Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

PubMed

Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

2016-01-01

Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward agronomic, economic, and environmental sustainability.

Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

1996-01-01

The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

Efficient operation scheduling for adsorption chillers using predictive optimization-based control methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bürger, Adrian; Sawant, Parantapa; Bohlayer, Markus; Altmann-Dieses, Angelika; Braun, Marco; Diehl, Moritz

2017-10-01

Within this work, the benefits of using predictive control methods for the operation of Adsorption Cooling Machines (ACMs) are shown on a simulation study. Since the internal control decisions of series-manufactured ACMs often cannot be influenced, the work focuses on optimized scheduling of an ACM considering its internal functioning as well as forecasts for load and driving energy occurrence. For illustration, an assumed solar thermal climate system is introduced and a system model suitable for use within gradient-based optimization methods is developed. The results of a system simulation using a conventional scheme for ACM scheduling are compared to the results of a predictive, optimization-based scheduling approach for the same exemplary scenario of load and driving energy occurrence. The benefits of the latter approach are shown and future actions for application of these methods for system control are addressed.

Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Tildesley, Michael J; Ryan, Sadie J

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.

Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Ryan, Sadie J.

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock. PMID:23133352

Estimation of brain network ictogenicity predicts outcome from epilepsy surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodfellow, M.; Rummel, C.; Abela, E.; Richardson, M. P.; Schindler, K.; Terry, J. R.

2016-07-01

Surgery is a valuable option for pharmacologically intractable epilepsy. However, significant post-operative improvements are not always attained. This is due in part to our incomplete understanding of the seizure generating (ictogenic) capabilities of brain networks. Here we introduce an in silico, model-based framework to study the effects of surgery within ictogenic brain networks. We find that factors conventionally determining the region of tissue to resect, such as the location of focal brain lesions or the presence of epileptiform rhythms, do not necessarily predict the best resection strategy. We validate our framework by analysing electrocorticogram (ECoG) recordings from patients who have undergone epilepsy surgery. We find that when post-operative outcome is good, model predictions for optimal strategies align better with the actual surgery undertaken than when post-operative outcome is poor. Crucially, this allows the prediction of optimal surgical strategies and the provision of quantitative prognoses for patients undergoing epilepsy surgery.

Optimization of drug-drug interaction study design: comparison of minimal physiologically based pharmacokinetic models on prediction of CYP3A inhibition by ketoconazole.

PubMed

Han, Bing; Mao, Jialin; Chien, Jenny Y; Hall, Stephen D

2013-07-01

Ketoconazole is a potent CYP3A inhibitor used to assess the contribution of CYP3A to drug clearance and quantify the increase in drug exposure due to a strong inhibitor. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been used to evaluate treatment regimens resulting in maximal CYP3A inhibition by ketoconazole but have reached different conclusions. We compare two PBPK models of the ketoconazole-midazolam interaction, model 1 (Chien et al., 2006) and model 2 implemented in Simcyp (version 11), to predict 16 published treatment regimens. With use of model 2, 41% of the study point estimates of area under the curve (AUC) ratio and 71% of the 90% confidence intervals were predicted within 1.5-fold of the observed, but these increased to 82 and 100%, respectively, with model 1. For midazolam, model 2 predicted a maximal midazolam AUC ratio of 8 and a hepatic fraction metabolized by CYP3A (f(m)) of 0.97, whereas model 1 predicted 17 and 0.90, respectively, which are more consistent with observed data. On the basis of model 1, ketoconazole (400 mg QD) for at least 3 days and substrate administration within 2 hours is required for maximal CYP3A inhibition. Ketoconazole treatment regimens that use 200 mg BID underestimate the systemic fraction metabolized by CYP3A (0.86 versus 0.90) for midazolam. The systematic underprediction also applies to CYP3A substrates with high bioavailability and long half-lives. The superior predictive performance of model 1 reflects the need for accumulation of ketoconazole at enzyme site and protracted inhibition. Model 2 is not recommended for inferring optimal study design and estimation of fraction metabolized by CYP3A.

Ant colony optimization algorithm for interpretable Bayesian classifiers combination: application to medical predictions.

PubMed

Bouktif, Salah; Hanna, Eileen Marie; Zaki, Nazar; Abu Khousa, Eman

2014-01-01

Prediction and classification techniques have been well studied by machine learning researchers and developed for several real-word problems. However, the level of acceptance and success of prediction models are still below expectation due to some difficulties such as the low performance of prediction models when they are applied in different environments. Such a problem has been addressed by many researchers, mainly from the machine learning community. A second problem, principally raised by model users in different communities, such as managers, economists, engineers, biologists, and medical practitioners, etc., is the prediction models' interpretability. The latter is the ability of a model to explain its predictions and exhibit the causality relationships between the inputs and the outputs. In the case of classification, a successful way to alleviate the low performance is to use ensemble classiers. It is an intuitive strategy to activate collaboration between different classifiers towards a better performance than individual classier. Unfortunately, ensemble classifiers method do not take into account the interpretability of the final classification outcome. It even worsens the original interpretability of the individual classifiers. In this paper we propose a novel implementation of classifiers combination approach that does not only promote the overall performance but also preserves the interpretability of the resulting model. We propose a solution based on Ant Colony Optimization and tailored for the case of Bayesian classifiers. We validate our proposed solution with case studies from medical domain namely, heart disease and Cardiotography-based predictions, problems where interpretability is critical to make appropriate clinical decisions. The datasets, Prediction Models and software tool together with supplementary materials are available at http://faculty.uaeu.ac.ae/salahb/ACO4BC.htm.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

PubMed

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

2016-07-01

Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Piezoresistive Cantilever Performance—Part II: Optimization

PubMed Central

Park, Sung-Jin; Doll, Joseph C.; Rastegar, Ali J.; Pruitt, Beth L.

2010-01-01

Piezoresistive silicon cantilevers fabricated by ion implantation are frequently used for force, displacement, and chemical sensors due to their low cost and electronic readout. However, the design of piezoresistive cantilevers is not a straightforward problem due to coupling between the design parameters, constraints, process conditions, and performance. We systematically analyzed the effect of design and process parameters on force resolution and then developed an optimization approach to improve force resolution while satisfying various design constraints using simulation results. The combined simulation and optimization approach is extensible to other doping methods beyond ion implantation in principle. The optimization results were validated by fabricating cantilevers with the optimized conditions and characterizing their performance. The measurement results demonstrate that the analytical model accurately predicts force and displacement resolution, and sensitivity and noise tradeoff in optimal cantilever performance. We also performed a comparison between our optimization technique and existing models and demonstrated eight times improvement in force resolution over simplified models. PMID:20333323

Placement of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators in paediatric and congenital heart defect patients: a pipeline for model generation and simulation prediction of optimal configurations

PubMed Central

Rantner, Lukas J; Vadakkumpadan, Fijoy; Spevak, Philip J; Crosson, Jane E; Trayanova, Natalia A

2013-01-01

There is currently no reliable way of predicting the optimal implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement in paediatric and congenital heart defect (CHD) patients. This study aimed to: (1) develop a new image processing pipeline for constructing patient-specific heart–torso models from clinical magnetic resonance images (MRIs); (2) use the pipeline to determine the optimal ICD configuration in a paediatric tricuspid valve atresia patient; (3) establish whether the widely used criterion of shock-induced extracellular potential (Φe) gradients ≥5 V cm−1 in ≥95% of ventricular volume predicts defibrillation success. A biophysically detailed heart–torso model was generated from patient MRIs. Because transvenous access was impossible, three subcutaneous and three epicardial lead placement sites were identified along with five ICD scan locations. Ventricular fibrillation was induced, and defibrillation shocks were applied from 11 ICD configurations to determine defibrillation thresholds (DFTs). Two configurations with epicardial leads resulted in the lowest DFTs overall and were thus considered optimal. Three configurations shared the lowest DFT among subcutaneous lead ICDs. The Φe gradient criterion was an inadequate predictor of defibrillation success, as defibrillation failed in numerous instances even when 100% of the myocardium experienced such gradients. In conclusion, we have developed a new image processing pipeline and applied it to a CHD patient to construct the first active heart–torso model from clinical MRIs. PMID:23798492

Governing Laws of Complex System Predictability under Co-evolving Uncertainty Sources: Theory and Nonlinear Geophysical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, R. A. P.

2017-12-01

Predictability assessments are traditionally made on a case-by-case basis, often by running the particular model of interest with randomly perturbed initial/boundary conditions and parameters, producing computationally expensive ensembles. These approaches provide a lumped statistical view of uncertainty evolution, without eliciting the fundamental processes and interactions at play in the uncertainty dynamics. In order to address these limitations, we introduce a systematic dynamical framework for predictability assessment and forecast, by analytically deriving governing equations of predictability in terms of the fundamental architecture of dynamical systems, independent of any particular problem under consideration. The framework further relates multiple uncertainty sources along with their coevolutionary interplay, enabling a comprehensive and explicit treatment of uncertainty dynamics along time, without requiring the actual model to be run. In doing so, computational resources are freed and a quick and effective a-priori systematic dynamic evaluation is made of predictability evolution and its challenges, including aspects in the model architecture and intervening variables that may require optimization ahead of initiating any model runs. It further brings out universal dynamic features in the error dynamics elusive to any case specific treatment, ultimately shedding fundamental light on the challenging issue of predictability. The formulated approach, framed with broad mathematical physics generality in mind, is then implemented in dynamic models of nonlinear geophysical systems with various degrees of complexity, in order to evaluate their limitations and provide informed assistance on how to optimize their design and improve their predictability in fundamental dynamical terms.

Optimal Cluster Mill Pass Scheduling With an Accurate and Rapid New Strip Crown Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Arif S.; Grandhi, Ramana V.; Zipf, Mark E.

2007-05-01

Besides the requirement to roll coiled sheet at high levels of productivity, the optimal pass scheduling of cluster-type reversing cold mills presents the added challenge of assigning mill parameters that facilitate the best possible strip flatness. The pressures of intense global competition, and the requirements for increasingly thinner, higher quality specialty sheet products that are more difficult to roll, continue to force metal producers to commission innovative flatness-control technologies. This means that during the on-line computerized set-up of rolling mills, the mathematical model should not only determine the minimum total number of passes and maximum rolling speed, it should simultaneously optimize the pass-schedule so that desired flatness is assured, either by manual or automated means. In many cases today, however, on-line prediction of strip crown and corresponding flatness for the complex cluster-type rolling mills is typically addressed either by trial and error, by approximate deflection models for equivalent vertical roll-stacks, or by non-physical pattern recognition style models. The abundance of the aforementioned methods is largely due to the complexity of cluster-type mill configurations and the lack of deflection models with sufficient accuracy and speed for on-line use. Without adequate assignment of the pass-schedule set-up parameters, it may be difficult or impossible to achieve the required strip flatness. In this paper, we demonstrate optimization of cluster mill pass-schedules using a new accurate and rapid strip crown model. This pass-schedule optimization includes computations of the predicted strip thickness profile to validate mathematical constraints. In contrast to many of the existing methods for on-line prediction of strip crown and flatness on cluster mills, the demonstrated method requires minimal prior tuning and no extensive training with collected mill data. To rapidly and accurately solve the multi-contact problem and predict the strip crown, a new customized semi-analytical modeling technique that couples the Finite Element Method (FEM) with classical solid mechanics was developed to model the deflection of the rolls and strip while under load. The technique employed offers several important advantages over traditional methods to calculate strip crown, including continuity of elastic foundations, non-iterative solution when using predetermined foundation moduli, continuous third-order displacement fields, simple stress-field determination, and a comparatively faster solution time.

A computational framework for simultaneous estimation of muscle and joint contact forces and body motion using optimization and surrogate modeling.

PubMed

Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J

2018-04-01

Concurrent estimation of muscle activations, joint contact forces, and joint kinematics by means of gradient-based optimization of musculoskeletal models is hindered by computationally expensive and non-smooth joint contact and muscle wrapping algorithms. We present a framework that simultaneously speeds up computation and removes sources of non-smoothness from muscle force optimizations using a combination of parallelization and surrogate modeling, with special emphasis on a novel method for modeling joint contact as a surrogate model of a static analysis. The approach allows one to efficiently introduce elastic joint contact models within static and dynamic optimizations of human motion. We demonstrate the approach by performing two optimizations, one static and one dynamic, using a pelvis-leg musculoskeletal model undergoing a gait cycle. We observed convergence on the order of seconds for a static optimization time frame and on the order of minutes for an entire dynamic optimization. The presented framework may facilitate model-based efforts to predict how planned surgical or rehabilitation interventions will affect post-treatment joint and muscle function. Copyright © 2018 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling for novel cancer drug discovery and development.

PubMed

Zhang, Ping; Brusic, Vladimir

2014-10-01

Mathematical modeling enables: the in silico classification of cancers, the prediction of disease outcomes, optimization of therapy, identification of promising drug targets and prediction of resistance to anticancer drugs. In silico pre-screened drug targets can be validated by a small number of carefully selected experiments. This review discusses the basics of mathematical modeling in cancer drug discovery and development. The topics include in silico discovery of novel molecular drug targets, optimization of immunotherapies, personalized medicine and guiding preclinical and clinical trials. Breast cancer has been used to demonstrate the applications of mathematical modeling in cancer diagnostics, the identification of high-risk population, cancer screening strategies, prediction of tumor growth and guiding cancer treatment. Mathematical models are the key components of the toolkit used in the fight against cancer. The combinatorial complexity of new drugs discovery is enormous, making systematic drug discovery, by experimentation, alone difficult if not impossible. The biggest challenges include seamless integration of growing data, information and knowledge, and making them available for a multiplicity of analyses. Mathematical models are essential for bringing cancer drug discovery into the era of Omics, Big Data and personalized medicine.

Coarse-Graining Polymer Field Theory for Fast and Accurate Simulations of Directed Self-Assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jimmy; Delaney, Kris; Fredrickson, Glenn

To design effective manufacturing processes using polymer directed self-assembly (DSA), the semiconductor industry benefits greatly from having a complete picture of stable and defective polymer configurations. Field-theoretic simulations are an effective way to study these configurations and predict defect populations. Self-consistent field theory (SCFT) is a particularly successful theory for studies of DSA. Although other models exist that are faster to simulate, these models are phenomenological or derived through asymptotic approximations, often leading to a loss of accuracy relative to SCFT. In this study, we employ our recently-developed method to produce an accurate coarse-grained field theory for diblock copolymers. The method uses a force- and stress-matching strategy to map output from SCFT simulations into parameters for an optimized phase field model. This optimized phase field model is just as fast as existing phenomenological phase field models, but makes more accurate predictions of polymer self-assembly, both in bulk and in confined systems. We study the performance of this model under various conditions, including its predictions of domain spacing, morphology and defect formation energies. Samsung Electronics.

Forecasting Optimal Solar Energy Supply in Jiangsu Province (China): A Systematic Approach Using Hybrid of Weather and Energy Forecast Models

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xiuli; Yiranbon, Ethel

2014-01-01

The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost,” and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor. PMID:24511292

Forecasting optimal solar energy supply in Jiangsu Province (China): a systematic approach using hybrid of weather and energy forecast models.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiuli; Asante Antwi, Henry; Yiranbon, Ethel

2014-01-01

The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, "least-cost," and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.

Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

2015-01-01

The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designer's unified cost model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeman, William T.; Ilcewicz, L. B.; Swanson, G. D.; Gutowski, T.

1992-01-01

A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

Genome-scale biological models for industrial microbial systems.

PubMed

Xu, Nan; Ye, Chao; Liu, Liming

2018-04-01

The primary aims and challenges associated with microbial fermentation include achieving faster cell growth, higher productivity, and more robust production processes. Genome-scale biological models, predicting the formation of an interaction among genetic materials, enzymes, and metabolites, constitute a systematic and comprehensive platform to analyze and optimize the microbial growth and production of biological products. Genome-scale biological models can help optimize microbial growth-associated traits by simulating biomass formation, predicting growth rates, and identifying the requirements for cell growth. With regard to microbial product biosynthesis, genome-scale biological models can be used to design product biosynthetic pathways, accelerate production efficiency, and reduce metabolic side effects, leading to improved production performance. The present review discusses the development of microbial genome-scale biological models since their emergence and emphasizes their pertinent application in improving industrial microbial fermentation of biological products.

3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship studies on benzothiadiazepine hydroxamates as inhibitors of tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme.

PubMed

Murumkar, Prashant R; Giridhar, Rajani; Yadav, Mange Ram

2008-04-01

A set of 29 benzothiadiazepine hydroxamates having selective tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme inhibitory activity were used to compare the quality and predictive power of 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship, comparative molecular field analysis, and comparative molecular similarity indices models for the atom-based, centroid/atom-based, data-based, and docked conformer-based alignment. Removal of two outliers from the initial training set of molecules improved the predictivity of models. Among the 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship models developed using the above four alignments, the database alignment provided the optimal predictive comparative molecular field analysis model for the training set with cross-validated r(2) (q(2)) = 0.510, non-cross-validated r(2) = 0.972, standard error of estimates (s) = 0.098, and F = 215.44 and the optimal comparative molecular similarity indices model with cross-validated r(2) (q(2)) = 0.556, non-cross-validated r(2) = 0.946, standard error of estimates (s) = 0.163, and F = 99.785. These models also showed the best test set prediction for six compounds with predictive r(2) values of 0.460 and 0.535, respectively. The contour maps obtained from 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship studies were appraised for activity trends for the molecules analyzed. The comparative molecular similarity indices models exhibited good external predictivity as compared with that of comparative molecular field analysis models. The data generated from the present study helped us to further design and report some novel and potent tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme inhibitors.

[Screen potential CYP450 2E1 inhibitors from Chinese herbal medicine based on support vector regression and molecular docking method].

PubMed

Chen, Xi; Lu, Fang; Jiang, Lu-di; Cai, Yi-Lian; Li, Gong-Yu; Zhang, Yan-Ling

2016-07-01

Inhibition of cytochrome P450 (CYP450) enzymes is the most common reasons for drug interactions, so the study on early prediction of CYPs inhibitors can help to decrease the incidence of adverse reactions caused by drug interactions.CYP450 2E1(CYP2E1), as a key role in drug metabolism process, has broad spectrum of drug metabolism substrate. In this study, 32 CYP2E1 inhibitors were collected for the construction of support vector regression (SVR) model. The test set data were used to verify CYP2E1 quantitative models and obtain the optimal prediction model of CYP2E1 inhibitor. Meanwhile, one molecular docking program, CDOCKER, was utilized to analyze the interaction pattern between positive compounds and active pocket to establish the optimal screening model of CYP2E1 inhibitors.SVR model and molecular docking prediction model were combined to screen traditional Chinese medicine database (TCMD), which could improve the calculation efficiency and prediction accuracy. 6 376 traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) compounds predicted by SVR model were obtained, and in further verification by using molecular docking model, 247 TCM compounds with potential inhibitory activities against CYP2E1 were finally retained. Some of them have been verified by experiments. The results demonstrated that this study could provide guidance for the virtual screening of CYP450 inhibitors and the prediction of CYPs-mediated DDIs, and also provide references for clinical rational drug use. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

On the internal target model in a tracking task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caglayan, A. K.; Baron, S.

1981-01-01

An optimal control model for predicting operator's dynamic responses and errors in target tracking ability is summarized. The model, which predicts asymmetry in the tracking data, is dependent on target maneuvers and trajectories. Gunners perception, decision making, control, and estimate of target positions and velocity related to crossover intervals are discussed. The model provides estimates for means, standard deviations, and variances for variables investigated and for operator estimates of future target positions and velocities.

Prediction of protein-protein interactions based on PseAA composition and hybrid feature selection.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Cai, Yudong; Lu, Wencong; Feng, Kaiyan; Peng, Chunrong; Niu, Bing

2009-03-06

Based on pseudo amino acid (PseAA) composition and a novel hybrid feature selection frame, this paper presents a computational system to predict the PPIs (protein-protein interactions) using 8796 protein pairs. These pairs are coded by PseAA composition, resulting in 114 features. A hybrid feature selection system, mRMR-KNNs-wrapper, is applied to obtain an optimized feature set by excluding poor-performed and/or redundant features, resulting in 103 remaining features. Using the optimized 103-feature subset, a prediction model is trained and tested in the k-nearest neighbors (KNNs) learning system. This prediction model achieves an overall accurate prediction rate of 76.18%, evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation test, which is 1.46% higher than using the initial 114 features and is 6.51% higher than the 20 features, coded by amino acid compositions. The PPIs predictor, developed for this research, is available for public use at http://chemdata.shu.edu.cn/ppi.

2018 update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype, with enhanced usability for low-income settings.

PubMed

Revell, Andrew D; Wang, Dechao; Perez-Elias, Maria-Jesus; Wood, Robin; Cogill, Dolphina; Tempelman, Hugo; Hamers, Raph L; Reiss, Peter; van Sighem, Ard I; Rehm, Catherine A; Pozniak, Anton; Montaner, Julio S G; Lane, H Clifford; Larder, Brendan A

2018-06-08

Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis can be challenging, particularly in settings with limited access to drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare their predictive accuracy with that of genotyping. Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to a new therapy introduced following virological failure using up to 50 000 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype and 18 000 TCEs including genotypes. Independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. This study tested the effects on model accuracy of relaxing the baseline data timing windows, the use of a new filter to exclude probable non-adherent cases and the addition of maraviroc, tipranavir and elvitegravir to the system. The no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.81 using the standard and relaxed baseline data windows, respectively. The genotype models achieved AUC values of 0.86 with the new non-adherence filter and 0.84 without. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate than genotyping with rules-based interpretation, which achieved AUC values of only 0.55-0.63, and were marginally more accurate than previous models. The models were able to identify alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases in which the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

An online air pollution forecasting system using neural networks.

PubMed

Kurt, Atakan; Gulbagci, Betul; Karaca, Ferhat; Alagha, Omar

2008-07-01

In this work, an online air pollution forecasting system for Greater Istanbul Area is developed. The system predicts three air pollution indicator (SO(2), PM(10) and CO) levels for the next three days (+1, +2, and +3 days) using neural networks. AirPolTool, a user-friendly website (http://airpol.fatih.edu.tr), publishes +1, +2, and +3 days predictions of air pollutants updated twice a day. Experiments presented in this paper show that quite accurate predictions of air pollutant indicator levels are possible with a simple neural network. It is shown that further optimizations of the model can be achieved using different input parameters and different experimental setups. Firstly, +1, +2, and +3 days' pollution levels are predicted independently using same training data, then +2 and +3 days are predicted cumulatively using previously days predicted values. Better prediction results are obtained in the cumulative method. Secondly, the size of training data base used in the model is optimized. The best modeling performance with minimum error rate is achieved using 3-15 past days in the training data set. Finally, the effect of the day of week as an input parameter is investigated. Better forecasts with higher accuracy are observed using the day of week as an input parameter.

Physics-based statistical learning approach to mesoscopic model selection.

PubMed

Taverniers, Søren; Haut, Terry S; Barros, Kipton; Alexander, Francis J; Lookman, Turab

2015-11-01

In materials science and many other research areas, models are frequently inferred without considering their generalization to unseen data. We apply statistical learning using cross-validation to obtain an optimally predictive coarse-grained description of a two-dimensional kinetic nearest-neighbor Ising model with Glauber dynamics (GD) based on the stochastic Ginzburg-Landau equation (sGLE). The latter is learned from GD "training" data using a log-likelihood analysis, and its predictive ability for various complexities of the model is tested on GD "test" data independent of the data used to train the model on. Using two different error metrics, we perform a detailed analysis of the error between magnetization time trajectories simulated using the learned sGLE coarse-grained description and those obtained using the GD model. We show that both for equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium GD training trajectories, the standard phenomenological description using a quartic free energy does not always yield the most predictive coarse-grained model. Moreover, increasing the amount of training data can shift the optimal model complexity to higher values. Our results are promising in that they pave the way for the use of statistical learning as a general tool for materials modeling and discovery.

DEEP MOTIF DASHBOARD: VISUALIZING AND UNDERSTANDING GENOMIC SEQUENCES USING DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS.

PubMed

Lanchantin, Jack; Singh, Ritambhara; Wang, Beilun; Qi, Yanjun

2017-01-01

Deep neural network (DNN) models have recently obtained state-of-the-art prediction accuracy for the transcription factor binding (TFBS) site classification task. However, it remains unclear how these approaches identify meaningful DNA sequence signals and give insights as to why TFs bind to certain locations. In this paper, we propose a toolkit called the Deep Motif Dashboard (DeMo Dashboard) which provides a suite of visualization strategies to extract motifs, or sequence patterns from deep neural network models for TFBS classification. We demonstrate how to visualize and understand three important DNN models: convolutional, recurrent, and convolutional-recurrent networks. Our first visualization method is finding a test sequence's saliency map which uses first-order derivatives to describe the importance of each nucleotide in making the final prediction. Second, considering recurrent models make predictions in a temporal manner (from one end of a TFBS sequence to the other), we introduce temporal output scores, indicating the prediction score of a model over time for a sequential input. Lastly, a class-specific visualization strategy finds the optimal input sequence for a given TFBS positive class via stochastic gradient optimization. Our experimental results indicate that a convolutional-recurrent architecture performs the best among the three architectures. The visualization techniques indicate that CNN-RNN makes predictions by modeling both motifs as well as dependencies among them.

Deep Motif Dashboard: Visualizing and Understanding Genomic Sequences Using Deep Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Lanchantin, Jack; Singh, Ritambhara; Wang, Beilun; Qi, Yanjun

2018-01-01

Deep neural network (DNN) models have recently obtained state-of-the-art prediction accuracy for the transcription factor binding (TFBS) site classification task. However, it remains unclear how these approaches identify meaningful DNA sequence signals and give insights as to why TFs bind to certain locations. In this paper, we propose a toolkit called the Deep Motif Dashboard (DeMo Dashboard) which provides a suite of visualization strategies to extract motifs, or sequence patterns from deep neural network models for TFBS classification. We demonstrate how to visualize and understand three important DNN models: convolutional, recurrent, and convolutional-recurrent networks. Our first visualization method is finding a test sequence’s saliency map which uses first-order derivatives to describe the importance of each nucleotide in making the final prediction. Second, considering recurrent models make predictions in a temporal manner (from one end of a TFBS sequence to the other), we introduce temporal output scores, indicating the prediction score of a model over time for a sequential input. Lastly, a class-specific visualization strategy finds the optimal input sequence for a given TFBS positive class via stochastic gradient optimization. Our experimental results indicate that a convolutional-recurrent architecture performs the best among the three architectures. The visualization techniques indicate that CNN-RNN makes predictions by modeling both motifs as well as dependencies among them. PMID:27896980

Modeling the Effect of Storage Temperatures on the Growth of Listeria monocytogenes on Ready-to-Eat Ham and Sausage.

PubMed

Luo, Ke; Hong, Sung-Sam; Oh, Deog-Hwan

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to model the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat ham and sausage at different temperatures (4 to 35°C). The observed data fitted well with four primary models (Baranyi, modified Gompertz, logistic, and Huang) with high coefficients of determination (R(2) > 0.98) at all measured temperatures. After the mean square error (0.009 to 0.051), bias factors (0.99 to1.06), and accuracy factors (1.01 to 1.09) were obtained in all models, the square root and the natural logarithm model were employed to describe the relation between temperature and specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) derived from the primary models. These models were validated against the independent data observed from additional experiments using the acceptable prediction zone method and the proportion of the standard error of prediction. All secondary models based on each of the four primary models were acceptable to describe the growth of the pathogen in the two samples. The validation results indicate that the optimal primary model for estimating the SGR was the Baranyi model, and the optimal primary model for estimating LT was the logistic model in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham. The Baranyi model was also the optimal model to estimate the SGR and LT in RTE sausage. These results could be used to standardize predictive models, which are commonly used to identify critical control points in hazard analysis and critical control point systems or for the quantitative microbial risk assessment to improve the food safety of RTE meat products.

Data assimilation in optimizing and integrating soil and water quality water model predictions at different scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Relevant data about subsurface water flow and solute transport at relatively large scales that are of interest to the public are inherently laborious and in most cases simply impossible to obtain. Upscaling in which fine-scale models and data are used to predict changes at the coarser scales is the...

Staff Study on Cost and Training Effectiveness of Proposed Training Systems. TAEG Report 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naval Training Equipment Center, Orlando, FL. Training Analysis and Evaluation Group.

A study began the development and initial testing of a method for predicting cost and training effectiveness of proposed training programs. A prototype Training Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness Prediction (TECEP) model was developed and tested. The model was a method for optimization of training media allocation on the basis of fixed training…

Model-based optimization of G-CSF treatment during cytotoxic chemotherapy.

PubMed

Schirm, Sibylle; Engel, Christoph; Loibl, Sibylle; Loeffler, Markus; Scholz, Markus

2018-02-01

Although G-CSF is widely used to prevent or ameliorate leukopenia during cytotoxic chemotherapies, its optimal use is still under debate and depends on many therapy parameters such as dosing and timing of cytotoxic drugs and G-CSF, G-CSF pharmaceuticals used and individual risk factors of patients. We integrate available biological knowledge and clinical data regarding cell kinetics of bone marrow granulopoiesis, the cytotoxic effects of chemotherapy and pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of G-CSF applications (filgrastim or pegfilgrastim) into a comprehensive model. The model explains leukocyte time courses of more than 70 therapy scenarios comprising 10 different cytotoxic drugs. It is applied to develop optimized G-CSF schedules for a variety of clinical scenarios. Clinical trial results showed validity of model predictions regarding alternative G-CSF schedules. We propose modifications of G-CSF treatment for the chemotherapies 'BEACOPP escalated' (Hodgkin's disease), 'ETC' (breast cancer), and risk-adapted schedules for 'CHOP-14' (aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in elderly patients). We conclude that we established a model of human granulopoiesis under chemotherapy which allows predictions of yet untested G-CSF schedules, comparisons between them, and optimization of filgrastim and pegfilgrastim treatment. As a general rule of thumb, G-CSF treatment should not be started too early and patients could profit from filgrastim treatment continued until the end of the chemotherapy cycle.

Firefly as a novel swarm intelligence variable selection method in spectroscopy.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mohammad; dos Santos Coelho, Leandro

2014-12-10

A critical step in multivariate calibration is wavelength selection, which is used to build models with better prediction performance when applied to spectral data. Up to now, many feature selection techniques have been developed. Among all different types of feature selection techniques, those based on swarm intelligence optimization methodologies are more interesting since they are usually simulated based on animal and insect life behavior to, e.g., find the shortest path between a food source and their nests. This decision is made by a crowd, leading to a more robust model with less falling in local minima during the optimization cycle. This paper represents a novel feature selection approach to the selection of spectroscopic data, leading to more robust calibration models. The performance of the firefly algorithm, a swarm intelligence paradigm, was evaluated and compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. All three techniques were coupled with partial least squares (PLS) and applied to three spectroscopic data sets. They demonstrate improved prediction results in comparison to when only a PLS model was built using all wavelengths. Results show that firefly algorithm as a novel swarm paradigm leads to a lower number of selected wavelengths while the prediction performance of built PLS stays the same. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Implementation of fuzzy logic to determining selling price of products in a local corporate chain store

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiana, S. P. D.

2017-12-01

Corporate chain store is one type of retail industries companies that are developing growing rapidly in Indonesia. The competition between retail companies is very tight, so retailer companies should evaluate its performance continuously in order to survive. The selling price of products is one of the essential attributes and gets attention of many consumers where it’s used to evaluate the performance of the industry. This research aimed to determine optimal selling price of product with considering cost factors, namely purchase price of the product from supplier, holding costs, and transportation costs. Fuzzy logic approach is used in data processing with MATLAB software. Fuzzy logic is selected to solve the problem because this method can consider complexities factors. The result is a model of determination of the optimal selling price by considering three cost factors as inputs in the model. Calculating MAPE and model prediction ability for some products are used as validation and verification where the average value is 0.0525 for MAPE and 94.75% for prediction ability. The conclusion is this model can predict the selling price of up to 94.75%, so it can be used as tools for the corporate chain store in particular to determine the optimal selling price for its products.

An Introduction to System-Level, Steady-State and Transient Modeling and Optimization of High-Power-Density Thermoelectric Generator Devices Made of Segmented Thermoelectric Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crane, D. T.

2011-05-01

High-power-density, segmented, thermoelectric (TE) elements have been intimately integrated into heat exchangers, eliminating many of the loss mechanisms of conventional TE assemblies, including the ceramic electrical isolation layer. Numerical models comprising simultaneously solved, nonlinear, energy balance equations have been created to simulate these novel architectures. Both steady-state and transient models have been created in a MATLAB/Simulink environment. The models predict data from experiments in various configurations and applications over a broad range of temperature, flow, and current conditions for power produced, efficiency, and a variety of other important outputs. Using the validated models, devices and systems are optimized using advanced multiparameter optimization techniques. Devices optimized for particular steady-state operating conditions can then be dynamically simulated in a transient operating model. The transient model can simulate a variety of operating conditions including automotive and truck drive cycles.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jorgensen, S.

Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

Optimal Control Based Stiffness Identification of an Ankle-Foot Orthosis Using a Predictive Walking Model

PubMed Central

Sreenivasa, Manish; Millard, Matthew; Felis, Martin; Mombaur, Katja; Wolf, Sebastian I.

2017-01-01

Predicting the movements, ground reaction forces and neuromuscular activity during gait can be a valuable asset to the clinical rehabilitation community, both to understand pathology, as well as to plan effective intervention. In this work we use an optimal control method to generate predictive simulations of pathological gait in the sagittal plane. We construct a patient-specific model corresponding to a 7-year old child with gait abnormalities and identify the optimal spring characteristics of an ankle-foot orthosis that minimizes muscle effort. Our simulations include the computation of foot-ground reaction forces, as well as the neuromuscular dynamics using computationally efficient muscle torque generators and excitation-activation equations. The optimal control problem (OCP) is solved with a direct multiple shooting method. The solution of this problem is physically consistent synthetic neural excitation commands, muscle activations and whole body motion. Our simulations produced similar changes to the gait characteristics as those recorded on the patient. The orthosis-equipped model was able to walk faster with more extended knees. Notably, our approach can be easily tuned to simulate weakened muscles, produces physiologically realistic ground reaction forces and smooth muscle activations and torques, and can be implemented on a standard workstation to produce results within a few hours. These results are an important contribution toward bridging the gap between research methods in computational neuromechanics and day-to-day clinical rehabilitation. PMID:28450833

Material and shape optimization for multi-layered vocal fold models using transient loadings.

PubMed

Schmidt, Bastian; Leugering, Günter; Stingl, Michael; Hüttner, Björn; Agaimy, Abbas; Döllinger, Michael

2013-08-01

Commonly applied models to study vocal fold vibrations in combination with air flow distributions are self-sustained physical models of the larynx consisting of artificial silicone vocal folds. Choosing appropriate mechanical parameters and layer geometries for these vocal fold models while considering simplifications due to manufacturing restrictions is difficult but crucial for achieving realistic behavior. In earlier work by Schmidt et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 129, 2168-2180 (2011)], the authors presented an approach in which material parameters of a static numerical vocal fold model were optimized to achieve an agreement of the displacement field with data retrieved from hemilarynx experiments. This method is now generalized to a fully transient setting. Moreover in addition to the material parameters, the extended approach is capable of finding optimized layer geometries. Depending on chosen material restriction, significant modifications of the reference geometry are predicted. The additional flexibility in the design space leads to a significantly more realistic deformation behavior. At the same time, the predicted biomechanical and geometrical results are still feasible for manufacturing physical vocal fold models consisting of several silicone layers. As a consequence, the proposed combined experimental and numerical method is suited to guide the construction of physical vocal fold models.

Protein structure modeling and refinement by global optimization in CASP12.

PubMed

Hong, Seung Hwan; Joung, InSuk; Flores-Canales, Jose C; Manavalan, Balachandran; Cheng, Qianyi; Heo, Seungryong; Kim, Jong Yun; Lee, Sun Young; Nam, Mikyung; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

2018-03-01

For protein structure modeling in the CASP12 experiment, we have developed a new protocol based on our previous CASP11 approach. The global optimization method of conformational space annealing (CSA) was applied to 3 stages of modeling: multiple sequence-structure alignment, three-dimensional (3D) chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For better template selection and model selection, we updated our model quality assessment (QA) method with the newly developed SVMQA (support vector machine for quality assessment). For 3D chain building, we updated our energy function by including restraints generated from predicted residue-residue contacts. New energy terms for the predicted secondary structure and predicted solvent accessible surface area were also introduced. For difficult targets, we proposed a new method, LEEab, where the template term played a less significant role than it did in LEE, complemented by increased contributions from other terms such as the predicted contact term. For TBM (template-based modeling) targets, LEE performed better than LEEab, but for FM targets, LEEab was better. For model refinement, we modified our CASP11 molecular dynamics (MD) based protocol by using explicit solvents and tuning down restraint weights. Refinement results from MD simulations that used a new augmented statistical energy term in the force field were quite promising. Finally, when using inaccurate information (such as the predicted contacts), it was important to use the Lorentzian function for which the maximal penalty arising from wrong information is always bounded. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimized mixed Markov models for motif identification

PubMed Central

Huang, Weichun; Umbach, David M; Ohler, Uwe; Li, Leping

2006-01-01

Background Identifying functional elements, such as transcriptional factor binding sites, is a fundamental step in reconstructing gene regulatory networks and remains a challenging issue, largely due to limited availability of training samples. Results We introduce a novel and flexible model, the Optimized Mixture Markov model (OMiMa), and related methods to allow adjustment of model complexity for different motifs. In comparison with other leading methods, OMiMa can incorporate more than the NNSplice's pairwise dependencies; OMiMa avoids model over-fitting better than the Permuted Variable Length Markov Model (PVLMM); and OMiMa requires smaller training samples than the Maximum Entropy Model (MEM). Testing on both simulated and actual data (regulatory cis-elements and splice sites), we found OMiMa's performance superior to the other leading methods in terms of prediction accuracy, required size of training data or computational time. Our OMiMa system, to our knowledge, is the only motif finding tool that incorporates automatic selection of the best model. OMiMa is freely available at [1]. Conclusion Our optimized mixture of Markov models represents an alternative to the existing methods for modeling dependent structures within a biological motif. Our model is conceptually simple and effective, and can improve prediction accuracy and/or computational speed over other leading methods. PMID:16749929

Plateletpheresis efficiency and mathematical correction of software-derived platelet yield prediction: A linear regression and ROC modeling approach.

PubMed

Jaime-Pérez, José Carlos; Jiménez-Castillo, Raúl Alberto; Vázquez-Hernández, Karina Elizabeth; Salazar-Riojas, Rosario; Méndez-Ramírez, Nereida; Gómez-Almaguer, David

2017-10-01

Advances in automated cell separators have improved the efficiency of plateletpheresis and the possibility of obtaining double products (DP). We assessed cell processor accuracy of predicted platelet (PLT) yields with the goal of a better prediction of DP collections. This retrospective proof-of-concept study included 302 plateletpheresis procedures performed on a Trima Accel v6.0 at the apheresis unit of a hematology department. Donor variables, software predicted yield and actual PLT yield were statistically evaluated. Software prediction was optimized by linear regression analysis and its optimal cut-off to obtain a DP assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) modeling. Three hundred and two plateletpheresis procedures were performed; in 271 (89.7%) occasions, donors were men and in 31 (10.3%) women. Pre-donation PLT count had the best direct correlation with actual PLT yield (r = 0.486. P < .001). Means of software machine-derived values differed significantly from actual PLT yield, 4.72 × 10 11 vs.6.12 × 10 11 , respectively, (P < .001). The following equation was developed to adjust these values: actual PLT yield= 0.221 + (1.254 × theoretical platelet yield). ROC curve model showed an optimal apheresis device software prediction cut-off of 4.65 × 10 11 to obtain a DP, with a sensitivity of 82.2%, specificity of 93.3%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.909. Trima Accel v6.0 software consistently underestimated PLT yields. Simple correction derived from linear regression analysis accurately corrected this underestimation and ROC analysis identified a precise cut-off to reliably predict a DP. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictive modelling of flow in a two-dimensional intermediate-scale, heterogeneous porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Gilbert R.; Hill, M.C.; Illangasekare, T.H.; Rajaram, H.

2000-01-01

To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.

Breast Radiotherapy with Mixed Energy Photons; a Model for Optimal Beam Weighting.

PubMed

Birgani, Mohammadjavad Tahmasebi; Fatahiasl, Jafar; Hosseini, Seyed Mohammad; Bagheri, Ali; Behrooz, Mohammad Ali; Zabiehzadeh, Mansour; Meskani, Reza; Gomari, Maryam Talaei

2015-01-01

Utilization of high energy photons (>10 MV) with an optimal weight using a mixed energy technique is a practical way to generate a homogenous dose distribution while maintaining adequate target coverage in intact breast radiotherapy. This study represents a model for estimation of this optimal weight for day to day clinical usage. For this purpose, treatment planning computed tomography scans of thirty-three consecutive early stage breast cancer patients following breast conservation surgery were analyzed. After delineation of the breast clinical target volume (CTV) and placing opposed wedge paired isocenteric tangential portals, dosimeteric calculations were conducted and dose volume histograms (DVHs) were generated, first with pure 6 MV photons and then these calculations were repeated ten times with incorporating 18 MV photons (ten percent increase in weight per step) in each individual patient. For each calculation two indexes including maximum dose in the breast CTV (Dmax) and the volume of CTV which covered with 95% Isodose line (VCTV, 95%IDL) were measured according to the DVH data and then normalized values were plotted in a graph. The optimal weight of 18 MV photons was defined as the intersection point of Dmax and VCTV, 95%IDL graphs. For creating a model to predict this optimal weight multiple linear regression analysis was used based on some of the breast and tangential field parameters. The best fitting model for prediction of 18 MV photons optimal weight in breast radiotherapy using mixed energy technique, incorporated chest wall separation plus central lung distance (Adjusted R2=0.776). In conclusion, this study represents a model for the estimation of optimal beam weighting in breast radiotherapy using mixed photon energy technique for routine day to day clinical usage.

Achieving Maximum Crack Remediation Effect from Optimized Hydrotesting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-15

This project developed and validated models that will allow the industry to predict the overall benefits of hydrotests. Such a prediction is made with a consideration of various characteristics of a pipeline including the type of operation, stage of ...

Perceptual tools for quality-aware video networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovik, A. C.

2014-01-01

Monitoring and controlling the quality of the viewing experience of videos transmitted over increasingly congested networks (especially wireless networks) is a pressing problem owing to rapid advances in video-centric mobile communication and display devices that are straining the capacity of the network infrastructure. New developments in automatic perceptual video quality models offer tools that have the potential to be used to perceptually optimize wireless video, leading to more efficient video data delivery and better received quality. In this talk I will review key perceptual principles that are, or could be used to create effective video quality prediction models, and leading quality prediction models that utilize these principles. The goal is to be able to monitor and perceptually optimize video networks by making them "quality-aware."

A method to predict different mechanisms for blood-brain barrier permeability of CNS activity compounds in Chinese herbs using support vector machine.

PubMed

Jiang, Ludi; Chen, Jiahua; He, Yusu; Zhang, Yanling; Li, Gongyu

2016-02-01

The blood-brain barrier (BBB), a highly selective barrier between central nervous system (CNS) and the blood stream, restricts and regulates the penetration of compounds from the blood into the brain. Drugs that affect the CNS interact with the BBB prior to their target site, so the prediction research on BBB permeability is a fundamental and significant research direction in neuropharmacology. In this study, we combed through the available data and then with the help of support vector machine (SVM), we established an experiment process for discovering potential CNS compounds and investigating the mechanisms of BBB permeability of them to advance the research in this field four types of prediction models, referring to CNS activity, BBB permeability, passive diffusion and efflux transport, were obtained in the experiment process. The first two models were used to discover compounds which may have CNS activity and also cross the BBB at the same time; the latter two were used to elucidate the mechanism of BBB permeability of those compounds. Three optimization parameter methods, Grid Search, Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), were used to optimize the SVM models. Then, four optimal models were selected with excellent evaluation indexes (the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of each model were all above 85%). Furthermore, discrimination models were utilized to study the BBB properties of the known CNS activity compounds in Chinese herbs and this may guide the CNS drug development. With the relatively systematic and quick approach, the application rationality of traditional Chinese medicines for treating nervous system disease in the clinical practice will be improved.

On the effects of alternative optima in context-specific metabolic model predictions

PubMed Central

Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-01-01

The integration of experimental data into genome-scale metabolic models can greatly improve flux predictions. This is achieved by restricting predictions to a more realistic context-specific domain, like a particular cell or tissue type. Several computational approaches to integrate data have been proposed—generally obtaining context-specific (sub)models or flux distributions. However, these approaches may lead to a multitude of equally valid but potentially different models or flux distributions, due to possible alternative optima in the underlying optimization problems. Although this issue introduces ambiguity in context-specific predictions, it has not been generally recognized, especially in the case of model reconstructions. In this study, we analyze the impact of alternative optima in four state-of-the-art context-specific data integration approaches, providing both flux distributions and/or metabolic models. To this end, we present three computational methods and apply them to two particular case studies: leaf-specific predictions from the integration of gene expression data in a metabolic model of Arabidopsis thaliana, and liver-specific reconstructions derived from a human model with various experimental data sources. The application of these methods allows us to obtain the following results: (i) we sample the space of alternative flux distributions in the leaf- and the liver-specific case and quantify the ambiguity of the predictions. In addition, we show how the inclusion of ℓ1-regularization during data integration reduces the ambiguity in both cases. (ii) We generate sets of alternative leaf- and liver-specific models that are optimal to each one of the evaluated model reconstruction approaches. We demonstrate that alternative models of the same context contain a marked fraction of disparate reactions. Further, we show that a careful balance between model sparsity and metabolic functionality helps in reducing the discrepancies between alternative models. Finally, our findings indicate that alternative optima must be taken into account for rendering the context-specific metabolic model predictions less ambiguous. PMID:28557990

On the effects of alternative optima in context-specific metabolic model predictions.

PubMed

Robaina-Estévez, Semidán; Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-05-01

The integration of experimental data into genome-scale metabolic models can greatly improve flux predictions. This is achieved by restricting predictions to a more realistic context-specific domain, like a particular cell or tissue type. Several computational approaches to integrate data have been proposed-generally obtaining context-specific (sub)models or flux distributions. However, these approaches may lead to a multitude of equally valid but potentially different models or flux distributions, due to possible alternative optima in the underlying optimization problems. Although this issue introduces ambiguity in context-specific predictions, it has not been generally recognized, especially in the case of model reconstructions. In this study, we analyze the impact of alternative optima in four state-of-the-art context-specific data integration approaches, providing both flux distributions and/or metabolic models. To this end, we present three computational methods and apply them to two particular case studies: leaf-specific predictions from the integration of gene expression data in a metabolic model of Arabidopsis thaliana, and liver-specific reconstructions derived from a human model with various experimental data sources. The application of these methods allows us to obtain the following results: (i) we sample the space of alternative flux distributions in the leaf- and the liver-specific case and quantify the ambiguity of the predictions. In addition, we show how the inclusion of ℓ1-regularization during data integration reduces the ambiguity in both cases. (ii) We generate sets of alternative leaf- and liver-specific models that are optimal to each one of the evaluated model reconstruction approaches. We demonstrate that alternative models of the same context contain a marked fraction of disparate reactions. Further, we show that a careful balance between model sparsity and metabolic functionality helps in reducing the discrepancies between alternative models. Finally, our findings indicate that alternative optima must be taken into account for rendering the context-specific metabolic model predictions less ambiguous.

Optimization of Bioactive Ingredient Extraction from Chinese Herbal Medicine Glycyrrhiza glabra: A Comparative Study of Three Optimization Models

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yuyan

2018-01-01

The ultraviolet spectrophotometric method is often used for determining the content of glycyrrhizic acid from Chinese herbal medicine Glycyrrhiza glabra. Based on the traditional single variable approach, four extraction parameters of ammonia concentration, ethanol concentration, circumfluence time, and liquid-solid ratio are adopted as the independent extraction variables. In the present work, central composite design of four factors and five levels is applied to design the extraction experiments. Subsequently, the prediction models of response surface methodology, artificial neural networks, and genetic algorithm-artificial neural networks are developed to analyze the obtained experimental data, while the genetic algorithm is utilized to find the optimal extraction parameters for the above well-established models. It is found that the optimization of extraction technology is presented as ammonia concentration 0.595%, ethanol concentration 58.45%, return time 2.5 h, and liquid-solid ratio 11.065 : 1. Under these conditions, the model predictive value is 381.24 mg, the experimental average value is 376.46 mg, and the expectation discrepancy is 4.78 mg. For the first time, a comparative study of these three approaches is conducted for the evaluation and optimization of the effects of the extraction independent variables. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the combinational method of genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks provides a more reliable and more accurate strategy for design and optimization of glycyrrhizic acid extraction from Glycyrrhiza glabra. PMID:29887907

Optimization of Bioactive Ingredient Extraction from Chinese Herbal Medicine Glycyrrhiza glabra: A Comparative Study of Three Optimization Models.

PubMed

Yu, Li; Jin, Weifeng; Li, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yuyan

2018-01-01

The ultraviolet spectrophotometric method is often used for determining the content of glycyrrhizic acid from Chinese herbal medicine Glycyrrhiza glabra . Based on the traditional single variable approach, four extraction parameters of ammonia concentration, ethanol concentration, circumfluence time, and liquid-solid ratio are adopted as the independent extraction variables. In the present work, central composite design of four factors and five levels is applied to design the extraction experiments. Subsequently, the prediction models of response surface methodology, artificial neural networks, and genetic algorithm-artificial neural networks are developed to analyze the obtained experimental data, while the genetic algorithm is utilized to find the optimal extraction parameters for the above well-established models. It is found that the optimization of extraction technology is presented as ammonia concentration 0.595%, ethanol concentration 58.45%, return time 2.5 h, and liquid-solid ratio 11.065 : 1. Under these conditions, the model predictive value is 381.24 mg, the experimental average value is 376.46 mg, and the expectation discrepancy is 4.78 mg. For the first time, a comparative study of these three approaches is conducted for the evaluation and optimization of the effects of the extraction independent variables. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the combinational method of genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks provides a more reliable and more accurate strategy for design and optimization of glycyrrhizic acid extraction from Glycyrrhiza glabra .

Intermolecular shielding contributions studied by modeling the 13C chemical-shift tensors of organic single crystals with plane waves

PubMed Central

Johnston, Jessica C.; Iuliucci, Robbie J.; Facelli, Julio C.; Fitzgerald, George; Mueller, Karl T.

2009-01-01

In order to predict accurately the chemical shift of NMR-active nuclei in solid phase systems, magnetic shielding calculations must be capable of considering the complete lattice structure. Here we assess the accuracy of the density functional theory gauge-including projector augmented wave method, which uses pseudopotentials to approximate the nodal structure of the core electrons, to determine the magnetic properties of crystals by predicting the full chemical-shift tensors of all 13C nuclides in 14 organic single crystals from which experimental tensors have previously been reported. Plane-wave methods use periodic boundary conditions to incorporate the lattice structure, providing a substantial improvement for modeling the chemical shifts in hydrogen-bonded systems. Principal tensor components can now be predicted to an accuracy that approaches the typical experimental uncertainty. Moreover, methods that include the full solid-phase structure enable geometry optimizations to be performed on the input structures prior to calculation of the shielding. Improvement after optimization is noted here even when neutron diffraction data are used for determining the initial structures. After geometry optimization, the isotropic shift can be predicted to within 1 ppm. PMID:19831448

Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training.

PubMed

Law, L A Frey; Shields, R K

2007-01-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of three muscle models, one linear and two nonlinear, for predicting paralyzed soleus muscle force after exposure to long-term FES training. Further, we contrasted the findings between the trained and untrained limbs. The three models' parameters were best fit to a single force train in the trained soleus muscle (N=4). Nine additional force trains (test trains) were predicted for each subject using the developed models. Model errors between predicted and experimental force trains were determined, including specific muscle force properties. The mean overall error was greatest for the linear model (15.8%) and least for the nonlinear Hill Huxley type model (7.8%). No significant error differences were observed between the trained versus untrained limbs, although model parameter values were significantly altered with training. This study confirmed that nonlinear models most accurately predict both trained and untrained paralyzed muscle force properties. Moreover, the optimized model parameter values were responsive to the relative physiological state of the paralyzed muscle (trained versus untrained). These findings are relevant for the design and control of neuro-prosthetic devices for those with SCI.

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty

PubMed Central

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results. PMID:27247563

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty.

PubMed

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results.

How to determine an optimal threshold to classify real-time crash-prone traffic conditions?

PubMed

Yang, Kui; Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Quddus, Mohammed; Xue, Lifang

2018-08-01

One of the proactive approaches in reducing traffic crashes is to identify hazardous traffic conditions that may lead to a traffic crash, known as real-time crash prediction. Threshold selection is one of the essential steps of real-time crash prediction. And it provides the cut-off point for the posterior probability which is used to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions, after the outcome of the probability of a crash occurring given a specific traffic condition on the basis of crash risk evaluation models. There is however a dearth of research that focuses on how to effectively determine an optimal threshold. And only when discussing the predictive performance of the models, a few studies utilized subjective methods to choose the threshold. The subjective methods cannot automatically identify the optimal thresholds in different traffic and weather conditions in real application. Thus, a theoretical method to select the threshold value is necessary for the sake of avoiding subjective judgments. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical method for automatically identifying the optimal threshold. Considering the random effects of variable factors across all roadway segments, the mixed logit model was utilized to develop the crash risk evaluation model and further evaluate the crash risk. Cross-entropy, between-class variance and other theories were employed and investigated to empirically identify the optimal threshold. And K-fold cross-validation was used to validate the performance of proposed threshold selection methods with the help of several evaluation criteria. The results indicate that (i) the mixed logit model can obtain a good performance; (ii) the classification performance of the threshold selected by the minimum cross-entropy method outperforms the other methods according to the criteria. This method can be well-behaved to automatically identify thresholds in crash prediction, by minimizing the cross entropy between the original dataset with continuous probability of a crash occurring and the binarized dataset after using the thresholds to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting seasonal diet in the yellow-bellied marmot: success and failure for the linear programming model.

PubMed

Edwards, G P

1997-10-01

Seasonal diet selection in the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) was studied at two sites in Montana during 1991 and 1992. A linear programming model of optimal diet selection successfully predicted the composition of observed diets (monocot versus dicot) in eight out of ten cases early in the active season (April-June). During this period, adult, yearling and juvenile marmots selected diets consistent with the predicted goal of energy maximisation. However, late in the active season (July-August), the model predicted the diet composition in only one out of six cases. In all six late-season determinations, the model underestimated the amount of monocot in the diet. Possible reasons why the model failed to reliably predict diet composition late in the active season are discussed.

An Automated, Adaptive Framework for Optimizing Preprocessing Pipelines in Task-Based Functional MRI

PubMed Central

Churchill, Nathan W.; Spring, Robyn; Afshin-Pour, Babak; Dong, Fan; Strother, Stephen C.

2015-01-01

BOLD fMRI is sensitive to blood-oxygenation changes correlated with brain function; however, it is limited by relatively weak signal and significant noise confounds. Many preprocessing algorithms have been developed to control noise and improve signal detection in fMRI. Although the chosen set of preprocessing and analysis steps (the “pipeline”) significantly affects signal detection, pipelines are rarely quantitatively validated in the neuroimaging literature, due to complex preprocessing interactions. This paper outlines and validates an adaptive resampling framework for evaluating and optimizing preprocessing choices by optimizing data-driven metrics of task prediction and spatial reproducibility. Compared to standard “fixed” preprocessing pipelines, this optimization approach significantly improves independent validation measures of within-subject test-retest, and between-subject activation overlap, and behavioural prediction accuracy. We demonstrate that preprocessing choices function as implicit model regularizers, and that improvements due to pipeline optimization generalize across a range of simple to complex experimental tasks and analysis models. Results are shown for brief scanning sessions (<3 minutes each), demonstrating that with pipeline optimization, it is possible to obtain reliable results and brain-behaviour correlations in relatively small datasets. PMID:26161667