Evaluating fractionated space systems - Status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornford, S.; Jenkins, S.; Wall, S.; Cole, B.; Bairstow, B.; Rouquette, N.; Dubos, G.; Ryan, T.; Zarifian, P.; Boutwell, J.

DARPA has funded a number of teams to further refine its Fractionated Spacecraft vision. Several teams, including this team led by JPL, have been tasked to develop a tool for the evaluation of the Business case for a fractionated system architecture. This evaluation is to understand under what conditions and constraints the fractionated architecture make more sense (in a cost/benefit sense) than the traditional monolithic paradigm. Our approach to this evaluation is to generate and evaluate a variety of trade space options. These options include various sets of stimuli, various degrees of fractionation and various subsystem element properties. The stimuli include many not normally modeled such as technology obsolescence, funding profile changes and changes in mission objectives during the mission itself. The degrees of fractionation enable various traditional subsystem elements to be distributed across different free flyers which then act in concert as needed. This will enable key technologies to be updated as need dictates and availability allows. We have described our approach in a previous IEEE Aerospace conference paper but will briefly summarize here. Our approach to generate the Business Case evaluation is to explicitly model both the implementation and operation phases for the life cycle of a fractionated constellation. A variety of models are integrated into the Phoenix ModelCenter framework and are used to generate various intermediate data which is aggregated into the Present Strategic Value (PSV). The PSV is essentially the value (including the value of the embedded real options) minus the cost. These PSVs are calculated for a variety of configurations and scenarios including variations of various stimuli or uncertainties (e.g. supply chain delays, launch vehicle failures and orbital debris events). There are various decision options (e.g. delay, accelerate, cancel) which can now be exercised for each stimulus. We can compute the PSV for the various comb- nations and populate a tradespace. We have developed tooling to allow models to be automatically created and executed allowing us to explore large numbers of options with no human intervention. The methodology, models and the process by which they are integrated were a key subset of the previous paper. We will present the results of the Business Case analyses for a variety of configurations and scenarios, present the populated tradespace, show the GUI we have developed to facilitate the use of the tool and discuss the implications of both the results and our work to date. We will also discuss future work and possible approaches for that work.

Effectiveness of antilock braking systems in reducing motorcycle fatal crash rates.

PubMed

Teoh, Eric R

2011-04-01

Overbraking and underbraking have been shown to be common factors in motorcycle crashes. Antilock braking systems (ABS) prevent wheels from locking during braking and may make riders less reluctant to apply full braking force. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of ABS in fatal motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle drivers involved in fatal crashes per 10,000 registered vehicle years were compared for 13 motorcycle models with optional ABS and those same models without the option during 2003-2008. Motorcycles with optional ABS were included only if the presence of the option could be identified from the vehicle identification number. The rate of fatal motorcycle crashes per 10,000 registered vehicle years was 37 percent lower for ABS models than for their non-ABS versions. ABS appears to be highly effective in preventing fatal motorcycle crashes based on some early adopters of motorcycle ABS technology.

Validation of the measure automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized e...

Reliability models: the influence of model specification in generation expansion planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, J.P.

1982-10-01

This paper is a critical evaluation of reliability methods used for generation expansion planning. It is shown that the methods for treating uncertainty are critical for determining the relative reliability value of expansion alternatives. It is also shown that the specification of the reliability model will not favor all expansion options equally. Consequently, the model is biased. In addition, reliability models should be augmented with an economic value of reliability (such as the cost of emergency procedures or energy not served). Generation expansion evaluations which ignore the economic value of excess reliability can be shown to be inconsistent. The conclusionsmore » are that, in general, a reliability model simplifies generation expansion planning evaluations. However, for a thorough analysis, the expansion options should be reviewed for candidates which may be unduly rejected because of the bias of the reliability model. And this implies that for a consistent formulation in an optimization framework, the reliability model should be replaced with a full economic optimization which includes the costs of emergency procedures and interruptions in the objective function.« less

Solid rocket booster performance evaluation model. Volume 2: Users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

This users manual for the solid rocket booster performance evaluation model (SRB-II) contains descriptions of the model, the program options, the required program inputs, the program output format and the program error messages. SRB-II is written in FORTRAN and is operational on both the IBM 370/155 and the MSFC UNIVAC 1108 computers.

Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

Treesearch

Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike Price

2011-01-01

Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

Option B+ for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection in developing countries: a review of published cost-effectiveness analyses.

PubMed

Karnon, Jonathan; Orji, Nneka

2016-10-01

To review the published literature on the cost effectiveness of Option B+ (lifelong antiretroviral therapy) for preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV during pregnancy and breastfeeding to inform decision making in low- and middle-income countries. PubMed, Scopus, Google scholar and Medline were searched to identify studies of the cost effectiveness of the World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines for PMTCT. Study quality was appraised using the consolidated health economic evaluation reporting standards checklist. Eligible studies were reviewed in detail to assess the relevance and impact of alternative evaluation frameworks, assumptions and input parameter values. Five published cost effectiveness analyses of Option B+ for the PMTCT of HIV were identified. The reported cost-effectiveness of Option B+ varies substantially, with the results of different studies implying that Option B+ is dominant (lower costs, greater benefits), cost-effective (additional benefits at acceptable additional costs) or not cost-effective (additional benefits at unacceptable additional costs). This variation is due to significant differences in model structures and input parameter values. Structural differences were observed around the estimation of programme effects on infants, HIV-infected mothers and their HIV negative partners, over multiple pregnancies, as well assumptions regarding routine access to antiretroviral therapies. Significant differences in key input parameters were observed in transmission rates, intervention costs and effects and downstream cost savings. Across five model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of strategies for the PMTCT of HIV, the most comprehensive analysis reported that option B+ is highly likely to be cost-effective. This evaluation may have been overly favourable towards option B+ with respect to some input parameter values, but potentially important additional benefits were omitted. Decision makers might be best advised to review this analysis, with a view to requesting additional analyses of the model to inform local funding decisions around alternative strategies for the PMTCT of HIV. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

RISE Evaluation and Development System: Student Learning Objectives Handbook

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Indiana Department of Education, 2016

2016-01-01

With the help of teachers and leaders throughout the state, the Indiana Department of Education has developed an optional model teacher evaluation system named RISE. Whether corporations choose to adopt RISE or a model of their own, the department's goal is to assist corporations in developing or adopting models that both comply with IC 20-28-11.5…

Evaluation of CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton for simulating effects of management and climate change on cotton growth and evapotranspiration in an arid environment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Originally developed for simulating soybean growth and development, the CROPGRO model was recently re-parameterized for cotton. However, further efforts are necessary to evaluate the model's performance against field measurements for new environments and management options. The objective of this stu...

Evaluation of low wind modeling approaches for two tall-stack databases.

PubMed

Paine, Robert; Samani, Olga; Kaplan, Mary; Knipping, Eladio; Kumar, Naresh

2015-11-01

The performance of the AERMOD air dispersion model under low wind speed conditions, especially for applications with only one level of meteorological data and no direct turbulence measurements or vertical temperature gradient observations, is the focus of this study. The analysis documented in this paper addresses evaluations for low wind conditions involving tall stack releases for which multiple years of concurrent emissions, meteorological data, and monitoring data are available. AERMOD was tested on two field-study databases involving several SO2 monitors and hourly emissions data that had sub-hourly meteorological data (e.g., 10-min averages) available using several technical options: default mode, with various low wind speed beta options, and using the available sub-hourly meteorological data. These field study databases included (1) Mercer County, a North Dakota database featuring five SO2 monitors within 10 km of the Dakota Gasification Company's plant and the Antelope Valley Station power plant in an area of both flat and elevated terrain, and (2) a flat-terrain setting database with four SO2 monitors within 6 km of the Gibson Generating Station in southwest Indiana. Both sites featured regionally representative 10-m meteorological databases, with no significant terrain obstacles between the meteorological site and the emission sources. The low wind beta options show improvement in model performance helping to reduce some of the over-prediction biases currently present in AERMOD when run with regulatory default options. The overall findings with the low wind speed testing on these tall stack field-study databases indicate that AERMOD low wind speed options have a minor effect for flat terrain locations, but can have a significant effect for elevated terrain locations. The performance of AERMOD using low wind speed options leads to improved consistency of meteorological conditions associated with the highest observed and predicted concentration events. The available sub-hourly modeling results using the Sub-Hourly AERMOD Run Procedure (SHARP) are relatively unbiased and show that this alternative approach should be seriously considered to address situations dominated by low-wind meander conditions. AERMOD was evaluated with two tall stack databases (in North Dakota and Indiana) in areas of both flat and elevated terrain. AERMOD cases included the regulatory default mode, low wind speed beta options, and use of the Sub-Hourly AERMOD Run Procedure (SHARP). The low wind beta options show improvement in model performance (especially in higher terrain areas), helping to reduce some of the over-prediction biases currently present in regulatory default AERMOD. The SHARP results are relatively unbiased and show that this approach should be seriously considered to address situations dominated by low-wind meander conditions.

Simulating the effectiveness of three potential management options to slow the spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) populations in localized outlier sites

Treesearch

Rodrigo J. Mercader; Nathan W. Siegert; Andrew M. Liebhold; Deborah G. McCullough

2011-01-01

The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a devastating, invasive insect pest of ash trees, Fraxinus spp., in North America. Using a simulation model, we evaluated three potential management options to slow the spread of A. planipennis in discrete outlier sites: (i)...

Positioning Model-Supported, Participatory, Water Management Decision Making under Uncertainty within the Western Philosphical Discourse on Knowledge and Governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purkey, D. R.; Escobar, M.; Mehta, V. K.; Forni, L.

2016-12-01

Two important trends currently shape the manner in which water resources planning and decision making occurs. The first relates to the increasing reliance on participatory stakeholder processes as a forum for evaluating water management options and selecting the appropriate course of action. The second relates to the growing recognition that earlier deterministic approaches to this evaluation of options may no longer be appropriate, nor required. The convergence of these two trends poses questions as to the proper role of data, information, analysis and expertise in the inherently social and political process of negotiating water resources management agreements and implementing water resources management interventions. The question of how to discover the best or optimal option in the face of deep uncertainty related to climate change, demography, economic development, and regulatory reform is compelling. More fundamentally the question of whether the "perfect" option even exits to be discovered is perhaps more critical. While this existential question may be new to the water resource management community, it is not new to western political theory. This paper explores early classical philosophical writing related to issues of knowledge and governance as captured in the work of Plato and Aristotle; and then attempts to place a new approach to analysis-supported, stakeholder-driven water resources planning and decision making within this philosophical discourse. Using examples from river systems in California and the Andes, where the theory of Robust Decision Making has been used as an organizing construct for stakeholder processes, it is argued that the expectation that analysis will lead to the discovery of the perfect option is not warranted when stakeholders are engaged in the process of discovering a consensus option. This argument will touch upon issue of the diversity of values, model uncertainty and creditability, and the visualization of model output required to explore the implications of various management options across a range of inherently unknowable future conditions.

48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...

Rural Energy Options Analysis Training Development and Implementation at NREL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilman, P.

2005-01-01

NREL has developed a rural energy options analysis training program for rural energy decision makers that provides knowledge, skills and tools for the evaluation of technologies, including renewables, for rural energy applications. Through the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP), NREL has refined materials for the program and developed a module that offers hands-on training in the preparation of data for options analysis using HOMER, NREL's micropower optimization model. NREL has used the materials for training in Brazil, the Maldives, Mexico, and Sri Lanka.

Techno-Economic Analysis of BEV Service Providers Offering Battery Swapping Services: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

2013-03-01

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but high upfront costs, battery-limited vehicle range, and concern over high battery replacement costs may discourage potential buyers. A subscription model in which a service provider owns the battery and supplies access to battery swapping infrastructure could reduce upfront and replacement costs for batteries with a predictable monthly fee, while expanding BEV range. Assessing the costs and benefits of such a proposal are complicated by many factors, including customer drive patterns, the amount of required infrastructure, battery life, etc. The National Renewable Energy Laboratorymore » has applied its Battery Ownership Model to compare the economics and utility of BEV battery swapping service plan options to more traditional direct ownership options. Our evaluation process followed four steps: (1) identifying drive patterns best suited to battery swapping service plans, (2) modeling service usage statistics for the selected drive patterns, (3) calculating the cost-of-service plan options, and (4) evaluating the economics of individual drivers under realistically priced service plans. A service plan option can be more cost-effective than direct ownership for drivers who wish to operate a BEV as their primary vehicle where alternative options for travel beyond the single-charge range are expensive, and a full-coverage-yet-cost-effective regional infrastructure network can be deployed. However, when assumed cost of gasoline, tax structure, and absence of purchase incentives are factored in, our calculations show the service plan BEV is rarely more cost-effective than direct ownership of a conventional vehicle.« less

Techno-Economic Analysis of BEV Service Providers Offering Battery Swapping Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neubauer, J. S.; Pesaran, A.

2013-01-01

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but high upfront costs, battery-limited vehicle range, and concern over high battery replacement costs may discourage potential buyers. A subscription model in which a service provider owns the battery and supplies access to battery swapping infrastructure could reduce upfront and replacement costs for batteries with a predictable monthly fee, while expanding BEV range. Assessing the costs and benefits of such a proposal are complicated by many factors, including customer drive patterns, the amount of required infrastructure, battery life, etc. The National Renewable Energy Laboratorymore » has applied its Battery Ownership Model to compare the economics and utility of BEV battery swapping service plan options to more traditional direct ownership options. Our evaluation process followed four steps: (1) identifying drive patterns best suited to battery swapping service plans, (2) modeling service usage statistics for the selected drive patterns, (3) calculating the cost-of-service plan options, and (4) evaluating the economics of individual drivers under realistically priced service plans. A service plan option can be more cost-effective than direct ownership for drivers who wish to operate a BEV as their primary vehicle where alternative options for travel beyond the single-charge range are expensive, and a full-coverage-yet-cost-effective regional infrastructure network can be deployed. However, when assumed cost of gasoline, tax structure, and absence of purchase incentives are factored in, our calculations show the service plan BEV is rarely more cost-effective than direct ownership of a conventional vehicle.« less

A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

PubMed

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

2013-07-01

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 years yielded a real option value (€17,723) equivalent to that attributed to a single cohort of 12-year-old girls (€17,460). The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new "space" for decision-making choices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme Response Style: Which Model Is Best?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leventhal, Brian

2017-01-01

More robust and rigorous psychometric models, such as multidimensional Item Response Theory models, have been advocated for survey applications. However, item responses may be influenced by construct-irrelevant variance factors such as preferences for extreme response options. Through empirical and simulation methods, this study evaluates the use…

Project Proposals Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encheva, Sylvia; Tumin, Sharil

2009-08-01

Collaboration among various firms has been traditionally used trough single project joint ventures for bonding purposes. Eventhough the performed work is usually beneficial to some extend to all participants, the type of collaboration option to be adapted is strongly influenced by overall purposes and goals that can be achieved. In order to facilitate a choice of collaboration option best suited to a firm's need a computer based model is proposed.

Finite Element Evaluation of Two Retrofit Options to Enhance the Performance of Cable Media Barriers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-30

This report summarizes the finite element modeling and simulation efforts on evaluating the performance of cable median barriers including the current and several proposed retrofit designs. It also synthesizes a literature review of the performance e...

Estimation and evaluation of management options to control and/or reduce the risk of not complying with commercial sterility.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-11-20

In a previous study, a modular process risk model, from the raw material reception to the final product storage, was built to estimate the risk of a UHT-aseptic line of not complying with commercial sterility (Pujol et al., 2015). This present study was focused on demonstrating how the model (updated version with uncertainty and variability separated and 2(nd) order Monte Carlo procedure run) could be used to assess quantitatively the influence of management options. This assessment was done in three steps: pinpoint which process step had the highest influence on the risk, identify which management option(s) could be the most effective to control and/or reduce the risk, and finally evaluate quantitatively the influence of changing process setting(s) on the risk. For Bacillus cereus, it was identified that during post-process storage in an aseptic tank, there was potentially an air re-contamination due to filter efficiency loss (efficiency loss due to successive in-place sterilizations after cleaning operations), followed by B. cereus growth. Two options were then evaluated: i) reducing by one fifth of the number of filter sterilizations before renewing the filters, ii) designing new UHT-aseptic lines without an aseptic tank, i.e. without a storage period after the thermal process and before filling. Considering the uncertainty in the model, it was not possible to confirm whether these options had a significant influence on the risk associated with B. cereus. On the other hand, for Geobacillus stearothermophilus, combinations of heat-treatment time and temperature enabling the control or reduction in risk by a factor of ca. 100 were determined; for ease of operational implementation, they were presented graphically in the form of iso-risk curves. For instance, it was established that a heat treatment of 138°C for 31s (instead of 138°C for 25s) enabled a reduction in risk to 18×10(-8) (95% CI=[10; 34]×10(-8)), instead of 578×10(-8) (95% CI=[429; 754]×10(-8)) initially. In conclusion, a modular risk model, as the one exemplified here with a UHT-aseptic line, is a valuable tool in process design and operation, bringing definitive quantitative elements into the decision making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SIMYAR: a cable-yarding simulation model.

Treesearch

R.J. McGaughey; R.H. Twito

1987-01-01

A skyline-logging simulation model designed to help planners evaluate potential yarding options and alternative harvest plans is presented. The model, called SIMYAR, uses information about the timber stand, yarding equipment, and unit geometry to estimate yarding co stand productivity for a particular operation. The costs of felling, bucking, loading, and hauling are...

Evaluation of Policy Options for Increasing the Availability of Primary Care Services in Rural Washington State.

PubMed

Friedberg, Mark W; Martsolf, Grant R; White, Chapin; Auerbach, David I; Kandrack, Ryan; Reid, Rachel O; Butcher, Emily; Yu, Hao; Hollands, Simon; Nie, Xiaoyu

2017-01-01

The Washington State legislature has recently considered several policy options to address a perceived shortage of primary care physicians in rural Washington. These policy options include opening the new Elson S. Floyd College of Medicine at Washington State University in 2017; increasing the number of primary care residency positions in the state; expanding educational loan-repayment incentives to encourage primary care physicians to practice in rural Washington; increasing Medicaid payment rates for primary care physicians in rural Washington; and encouraging the adoption of alternative models of primary care, such as medical homes and nurse-managed health centers, that reallocate work from physicians to nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs). RAND Corporation researchers projected the effects that these and other policy options could have on the state's rural primary care workforce through 2025. They project a 7-percent decrease in the number of rural primary care physicians and a 5-percent decrease in the number of urban ones. None of the policy options modeled in this study, on its own, will offset this expected decrease by relying on physicians alone. However, combinations of these strategies or partial reallocation of rural primary care services to NPs and PAs via such new practice models as medical homes and nurse-managed health centers are plausible options for preserving the overall availability of primary care services in rural Washington through 2025.

Evaluating cardiac risk: exposure response analysis in early clinical drug development.

PubMed

Grenier, Julie; Paglialunga, Sabina; Morimoto, Bruce H; Lester, Robert M

2018-01-01

The assessment of a drug's cardiac liability has undergone considerable metamorphosis by regulators since International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirement for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E14 guideline was introduced in 2005. Drug developers now have a choice in how proarrhythmia risk can be evaluated; the options include a dedicated thorough QT (TQT) study or exposure response (ER) modeling of intensive electrocardiogram (ECG) captured in early clinical development. The alternative approach of ER modeling was incorporated into a guidance document in 2015 as a primary analysis tool which could be utilized in early phase dose escalation studies as an option to perform a dedicated TQT trial. This review will describe the current state of ER modeling of intensive ECG data collected during early clinical drug development; the requirements with regard to the use of a positive control; and address the challenges and opportunities of this alternative approach to assessing QT liability.

HYDROLOGIC EVALUATION OF LANDFILL PERFORMANCE (HELP) MODEL - USER'S GUIDE FOR VERSION 3

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the solution methods and process descriptions used in the Version 3 of the HELP model. Program documentation including program options, system and operating requirements, file structures, program structure and variable descriptions are provided in a separat...

Atmospheric studies in complex terrain: a planning guide for future studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orgill, M.M.

The objective of this study is to assist the US Department of Energy in Conducting its atmospheric studies in complex terrain (ASCOT0 by defining various complex terrain research systems and relating these options to specific landforms sites. This includes: (1) reviewing past meteorological and diffusion research on complex terrain; (2) relating specific terrain-induced airflow phenomena to specific landforms and time and space scales; (3) evaluating the technical difficulty of modeling and measuring terrain-induced airflow phenomena; and (4) avolving severdal research options and proposing candidate sites for continuing and expanding field and modeling work. To evolve research options using variable candidatemore » sites, four areas were considered: site selection, terrain uniqueness and quantification, definition of research problems and research plans. 36 references, 111 figures, 20 tables.« less

48 CFR 52.217-5 - Evaluation of Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 52....217-5 Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(c), insert a provision substantially the same as the following: Evaluation of Options (JUL 1990) Except when it is determined in accordance with FAR 17...

Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

DOE PAGES

Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

2016-02-19

It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

High Thermal Conductivity Polymer Composites for Low Cost Heat Exchangers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2017-08-01

This factsheet describes a project that identified and evaluated commercially available and state-of-the-art polymer-based material options for manufacturing industrial and commercial non-metallic heat exchangers. A heat exchanger concept was also developed and its performance evaluated with heat transfer modeling tools.

Development of a robust space power system decision model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Jacobs, Mark; Stancati, Michael; Cataldo, Robert

2001-02-01

NASA continues to evaluate power systems to support human exploration of the Moon and Mars. The system(s) would address all power needs of surface bases and on-board power for space transfer vehicles. Prior studies have examined both solar and nuclear-based alternatives with respect to individual issues such as sizing or cost. What has not been addressed is a comprehensive look at the risks and benefits of the options that could serve as the analytical framework to support a system choice that best serves the needs of the exploration program. This paper describes the SAIC developed Space Power System Decision Model, which uses a formal Two-step Analytical Hierarchy Process (TAHP) methodology that is used in the decision-making process to clearly distinguish candidate power systems in terms of benefits, safety, and risk. TAHP is a decision making process based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process, which employs a hierarchic approach of structuring decision factors by weights, and relatively ranks system design options on a consistent basis. This decision process also includes a level of data gathering and organization that produces a consistent, well-documented assessment, from which the capability of each power system option to meet top-level goals can be prioritized. The model defined on this effort focuses on the comparative assessment candidate power system options for Mars surface application(s). This paper describes the principles of this approach, the assessment criteria and weighting procedures, and the tools to capture and assess the expert knowledge associated with space power system evaluation. .

Comment on "Simulation of Surface Ozone Pollution in the Central Gulf Coast Region Using WRF/Chem Model: Sensitivity to PBL and Land Surface Physics"

EPA Science Inventory

A recently published meteorology and air quality modeling study has several serious deficiencies deserving comment. The study uses the weather research and forecasting/chemistry (WRF/Chem) model to compare and evaluate boundary layer and land surface modeling options. The most se...

Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

PubMed

Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-08-21

Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

Valuing natural gas power generation assets in the new competitive marketplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Michael Chun-Wei

1999-10-01

The profitability of natural gas fired power plants depends critically on the spread between electricity and natural gas prices. The price levels of these two energy commodities are the key uncertain variables in determining the operating margin and therefore the value of a power plant. The owner of a generation unit has the decision of dispatching the plant only when profit margins are positive. This operating flexibility is a real option with real value. In this dissertation I introduce the spark spread call options and illustrate how such paper contracts replicate the uncertain payoff space facing power asset owners and, therefore, how the financial options framework can be applied in estimating the value of natural gas generation plants. The intrinsic value of gas power plants is approximated as the sum of a series of spark spread call options with succeeding maturity dates. The Black-Scholes spread option pricing model, with volatility and correlation term structure adjustments, is utilized to price the spark spread options. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on the BS spread option formulation to compare different asset types. In addition I explore the potential of using compound and compound-exchange option concepts to evaluate, respectively, the benefits of delaying investment in new generation and in repowering existing antiquated units. The compound option designates an option on top of another option. In this case the series of spark spread call options is the 'underlying' option while the option to delay new investments is the 'overlying.' The compound-exchange option characterizes the opportunity to 'exchange' the old power plant, with its series of spark spread call options, for a set of new spark spread call options that comes with the new generation unit. The strike price of the compound-exchange option is the repowering capital investment and typically includes the purchase of new steam generators and combustion turbines, as well as other facility upgrades. The pricing results using the proposed repowering option approach is compared to the sale prices from recent power plant auctions. Sensitivity of the repowering option model is also examined and the critical parameters al parameters identified.

COMPUTERIZED SHAWNEE LIME/LIMESTONE SCRUBBING MODEL USERS MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

The manual gives a general description of a computerized model for estimating design and cost of lime or limestone scrubber systems for flue gas desulfurization (FGD). It supplements PB80-123037 by extending the number of scrubber options which can be evaluated. It includes spray...

48 CFR 1552.217-70 - Evaluation of contract options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... options. 1552.217-70 Section 1552.217-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... 1552.217-70 Evaluation of contract options. As prescribed in 1517.208(a), insert the following solicitation provision in Requests for Proposals when the solicitation contains options. Evaluation of Contract...

Rasch analyses of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale with individuals 50 years and older with lower limb amputations

PubMed Central

Sakakibara, Brodie M.; Miller, William C.; Backman, Catherine L.

2012-01-01

Objective To explore shortened response formats for use with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale and then: 1) evaluate the unidimensionality of the scale; 2) evaluate the item difficulty; 3) evaluate the scale for redundancy and content gaps; and 4) evaluate the item standard error of measurement (SEM) and internal consistency reliability among aging individuals (≥50 years) with a lower-limb amputation living in the community. Design Secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey and chart review data. Setting Out-patient amputee clinics, Ontario, Canada. Participants Four hundred forty eight community living adults, at least 50 years old (mean = 68 years), who have used a prosthesis for at least 6 months for a major unilateral lower limb amputation. Three hundred twenty five (72.5%) were men. Intervention N/a Main Outcome Measure(s) Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale. Results A 5-option response format outperformed 4- and 6-option formats. Factor analyses confirmed a unidimensional scale. The distance between response options is not the same for all items on the scale, evident by the Partial Credit Model (PCM) having a better fit to the data than the Rating Scale Model. Two items, however, did not fit the PCM within statistical reason. Revising the wording of the two items may resolve the misfit, and improve the construct validity and lower the SEM. Overall, the difficulty of the scale’s items is appropriate for use with aging individuals with lower-limb amputation, and is most reliable (Cronbach ∝ = 0.94) for use with individuals with moderately low balance confidence levels. Conclusions The ABC-scale with a simplified 5-option response format is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence for use with individuals aging with a lower limb amputation. PMID:21704978

Evaluating Mobile Survey Tools (MSTs) for Field-Level Monitoring and Data Collection: Development of a Novel Evaluation Framework, and Application to MSTs for Rural Water and Sanitation Monitoring

PubMed Central

Fisher, Michael B.; Mann, Benjamin H.; Cronk, Ryan D.; Shields, Katherine F.; Klug, Tori L.; Ramaswamy, Rohit

2016-01-01

Information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as mobile survey tools (MSTs) can facilitate field-level data collection to drive improvements in national and international development programs. MSTs allow users to gather and transmit field data in real time, standardize data storage and management, automate routine analyses, and visualize data. Dozens of diverse MST options are available, and users may struggle to select suitable options. We developed a systematic MST Evaluation Framework (EF), based on International Organization for Standardization/International Electrotechnical Commission (ISO/IEC) software quality modeling standards, to objectively assess MSTs and assist program implementers in identifying suitable MST options. The EF is applicable to MSTs for a broad variety of applications. We also conducted an MST user survey to elucidate needs and priorities of current MST users. Finally, the EF was used to assess seven MSTs currently used for water and sanitation monitoring, as a validation exercise. The results suggest that the EF is a promising method for evaluating MSTs. PMID:27563916

Evaluating Mobile Survey Tools (MSTs) for Field-Level Monitoring and Data Collection: Development of a Novel Evaluation Framework, and Application to MSTs for Rural Water and Sanitation Monitoring.

PubMed

Fisher, Michael B; Mann, Benjamin H; Cronk, Ryan D; Shields, Katherine F; Klug, Tori L; Ramaswamy, Rohit

2016-08-23

Information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as mobile survey tools (MSTs) can facilitate field-level data collection to drive improvements in national and international development programs. MSTs allow users to gather and transmit field data in real time, standardize data storage and management, automate routine analyses, and visualize data. Dozens of diverse MST options are available, and users may struggle to select suitable options. We developed a systematic MST Evaluation Framework (EF), based on International Organization for Standardization/International Electrotechnical Commission (ISO/IEC) software quality modeling standards, to objectively assess MSTs and assist program implementers in identifying suitable MST options. The EF is applicable to MSTs for a broad variety of applications. We also conducted an MST user survey to elucidate needs and priorities of current MST users. Finally, the EF was used to assess seven MSTs currently used for water and sanitation monitoring, as a validation exercise. The results suggest that the EF is a promising method for evaluating MSTs.

Environmental strategies: A case study of systematic evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, Douglas J.; Garès, Paul A.

1982-09-01

A major problem facing environmental managers is the necessity to effectively evaluate management alternatives. Traditional environmental assessments have emphasized the use of economic analyses. These approaches are often deficient due to difficulty in assigning dollar values to environmental systems and to social amenities. A more flexible decisionmaking model has been developed to analyze management options for coping with beach erosion problems at the Sandy Hook Unit of Gateway National Recreation Area in New Jersey. This model is comprised of decision-making variables which are formulated from a combination of environmental and management criteria, and it has an accept-reject format in which the management options are analyzed in terms of the variables. Through logical ordering of the insertion of the variables into the model, stepwise elimination of alternatives is possible. A hierarchy of variables is determined through estimating work required to complete an assessment of the alternatives for each variable. The assessment requiring the least work is performed first so that the more difficult evaluation will be limited to fewer alternatives. The application of this approach is illustrated with a case study in which beach protection alternatives were evaluated for the United States National Park Service.

Modelling the affordability and distributional implications of future health care financing options in South Africa.

PubMed

McIntyre, Di; Ataguba, John E

2012-03-01

South Africa is considering introducing a universal health care system. A key concern for policy-makers and the general public is whether or not this reform is affordable. Modelling the resource and revenue generation requirements of alternative reform options is critical to inform decision-making. This paper considers three reform scenarios: universal coverage funded by increased allocations to health from general tax and additional dedicated taxes; an alternative reform option of extending private health insurance coverage to all formal sector workers and their dependents with the remainder using tax-funded services; and maintaining the status quo. Each scenario was modelled over a 15-year period using a spreadsheet model. Statistical analyses were also undertaken to evaluate the impact of options on the distribution of health care financing burden and benefits from using health services across socio-economic groups. Universal coverage would result in total health care spending levels equivalent to 8.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is comparable to current spending levels. It is lower than the status quo option (9.5% of GDP) and far lower than the option of expanding private insurance cover (over 13% of GDP). However, public funding of health services would have to increase substantially. Despite this, universal coverage would result in the most progressive financing system if the additional public funding requirements are generated through a surcharge on taxable income (but not if VAT is increased). The extended private insurance scheme option would be the least progressive and would impose a very high payment burden; total health care payments on average would be 10.7% of household consumption expenditure compared with the universal coverage (6.7%) and status quo (7.5%) options. The least pro-rich distribution of service benefits would be achieved under universal coverage. Universal coverage is affordable and would promote health system equity, but needs careful design to ensure its long-term sustainability.

Economics of Utility Scale Photovoltaics at Purdue University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnett, William

The research for this case study shows that utility scale solar photovoltaics has become a competitive energy investment option, even when a campus operates a power plant at low electricity rates. To evaluate this an economic model called SEEMS (Solar Economic Evaluation Modelling Spreadsheets) was developed to evaluate a number of financial scenarios in Real Time Pricing for universities. The three main financing structures considered are 1) land leasing, 2) university direct purchase, and 3) third party purchase. Unlike other commercially available models SEEMS specifically accounts for real time pricing, where the local utility provides electricity at an hourly rate that changes with the expected demand. In addition, SEEMS also includes a random simulation that allows the model to predict the likelihood of success for a given solar installation strategy. The research showed that there are several options for utility scale solar that are financially attractive. The most practical financing structure is with a third party partnership because of the opportunity to take advantage of tax incentives. Other options could become more attractive if non-financial benefits are considered. The case study for this research, Purdue University, has a unique opportunity to integrate utility-scale solar electricity into its strategic planning. Currently Purdue is updating its master plan which will define how land is developed. Purdue is also developing a sustainability plan that will define long term environmental goals. In addition, the university is developing over 500 acres of land west of campus as part of its Aerospace Innovation District. This research helps make the case for including utility-scale solar electricity as part of the university's strategic planning.

48 CFR 852.273-72 - Alternative evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alternative evaluation... Alternative evaluation. As prescribed in 873.110(c), insert the following provision: Alternative Evaluation... unbalanced. Evaluation of options shall not obligate the Government to exercise the option(s). (End of...

A Nested Nearshore Nutrient Model (N&Sup3;M) for Nearshore Condition Assessment and Management

EPA Science Inventory

Nearshore conditions drive phenomena like harmful algal blooms (HABs), and the nearshore and coastal margin are the parts of the Great Lakes most used by humans. To assess conditions, optimize monitoring, and evaluate management options, a model of nearshore nutrient transport an...

Designing sustainable and economically attractive brownfield revitalization options using an integrated assessment model.

PubMed

Schädler, S; Morio, M; Bartke, S; Rohr-Zänker, R; Finkel, M

2011-03-01

We describe the development of an integrated assessment model which evaluates redevelopment options of large contaminated brownfields and we present the application of the model in a case study. Aiming to support efficient and sustainable revitalization and communication between stakeholders, the presented assessment model integrates three pinnacles of brownfield revitalization: (i) subsurface remediation and site preparation costs, (ii) market-oriented economic appraisal, and (iii) the expected contribution of planned future land use to sustainable community and regional development. For the assessment, focus is set on the early stage of the brownfield redevelopment process, which is characterized by limited data availability and by flexibility in land use planning and development scope. At this stage, revealing the consequences of adjustments and alterations in planning options can foster efficiency in communication between the involved parties and thereby facilitates the brownfield revitalization process. Results from the case-study application indicate that the integrated assessment provides help in the identification of land use options beneficial in both a sustainable and an economical sense. For the study site it is shown on one hand that brownfield redevelopment is not automatically in line with sustainable regional development, and on the other hand it is demonstrated that additional contributions to sustainability are not intrinsically tied to increased costs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scheduling algorithm for mission planning and logistics evaluation users' guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, H.; Williams, J. M.

1976-01-01

The scheduling algorithm for mission planning and logistics evaluation (SAMPLE) program is a mission planning tool composed of three subsystems; the mission payloads subsystem (MPLS), which generates a list of feasible combinations from a payload model for a given calendar year; GREEDY, which is a heuristic model used to find the best traffic model; and the operations simulation and resources scheduling subsystem (OSARS), which determines traffic model feasibility for available resources. The SAMPLE provides the user with options to allow the execution of MPLS, GREEDY, GREEDY-OSARS, or MPLS-GREEDY-OSARS.

Let's Cancel the Dog-and-Pony Show

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Kim

2012-01-01

Why are so many educators willing to give credence to observations based on announced visits? Perhaps it's avoidance or a failure to distinguish between good teachers and good teaching, or perhaps it's the way the conventional teacher-evaluation model limits administrators' options. To put it bluntly, an evaluation process that relies on announced…

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A planning algorithm for quantifying decentralised water management opportunities in urban environments.

PubMed

Bach, Peter M; McCarthy, David T; Urich, Christian; Sitzenfrei, Robert; Kleidorfer, Manfred; Rauch, Wolfgang; Deletic, Ana

2013-01-01

With global change bringing about greater challenges for the resilient planning and management of urban water infrastructure, research has been invested in the development of a strategic planning tool, DAnCE4Water. The tool models how urban and societal changes impact the development of centralised and decentralised (distributed) water infrastructure. An algorithm for rigorous assessment of suitable decentralised stormwater management options in the model is presented and tested on a local Melbourne catchment. Following detailed spatial representation algorithms (defined by planning rules), the model assesses numerous stormwater options to meet water quality targets at a variety of spatial scales. A multi-criteria assessment algorithm is used to find top-ranking solutions (which meet a specific treatment performance for a user-defined percentage of catchment imperviousness). A toolbox of five stormwater technologies (infiltration systems, surface wetlands, bioretention systems, ponds and swales) is featured. Parameters that set the algorithm's flexibility to develop possible management options are assessed and evaluated. Results are expressed in terms of 'utilisation', which characterises the frequency of use of different technologies across the top-ranking options (bioretention being the most versatile). Initial results highlight the importance of selecting a suitable spatial resolution and providing the model with enough flexibility for coming up with different technology combinations. The generic nature of the model enables its application to other urban areas (e.g. different catchments, local municipal regions or entire cities).

Scheduling periodic jobs that allow imprecise results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Jen-Yao; Liu, Jane W. S.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1990-01-01

The problem of scheduling periodic jobs in hard real-time systems that support imprecise computations is discussed. Two workload models of imprecise computations are presented. These models differ from traditional models in that a task may be terminated any time after it has produced an acceptable result. Each task is logically decomposed into a mandatory part followed by an optional part. In a feasible schedule, the mandatory part of every task is completed before the deadline of the task. The optional part refines the result produced by the mandatory part to reduce the error in the result. Applications are classified as type N and type C, according to undesirable effects of errors. The two workload models characterize the two types of applications. The optional parts of the tasks in an N job need not ever be completed. The resulting quality of each type-N job is measured in terms of the average error in the results over several consecutive periods. A class of preemptive, priority-driven algorithms that leads to feasible schedules with small average error is described and evaluated.

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: part 1--securing water availability.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

The technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions were compared. Part 1 of the study focused on determining the scale of the options required to secure water availability and compared the effectiveness of different options. A spatially and temporally resolved model of California's major surface reservoirs was developed, and its sensitivity to urban water conservation, desalination, and water reuse was examined. Potential capacities of the different options were determined. Under historical (baseline) hydrology conditions, many individual options were found to be capable of securing water availability alone. Under climate change augment conditions, a portfolio approach was necessary. The water savings from many individual options other than desalination were insufficient in the latter, however, relying on seawater desalination alone requires extreme capacity installations which have energy, brine disposal, management, and cost implications. The importance of identifying and utilizing points of leverage in the system for choosing where to deploy different options is also demonstrated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Case Study on Hydrodynamic Modeling and Design Improvement Evaluation to Manage Debris and Sediment Interference at a Water Intake Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crissman, B. J.; Cunderlik, J. M.; Wong, R. P. L.; Pinero, A.

2017-12-01

Waterford 3 nuclear plant, located in Killona, Louisiana, provides approximately 10% of the state's electricity need. Located along the south bank of the Mississippi River, two miles upstream of the Bonnet Carre Spillway, the plant's single pass through cooling system continuously draws up to 1,000,000 gpm water from the river. On behalf of Entergy Louisiana, the project team evaluated options to improve the aging water intake structure with chronic debris and sediment entrainment issues. The highly complex and dynamic environment in the river coupled with regulatory constraints limited available improvement options: varying river stages allow debris to overflow the intake structure, but the maximum new wall height is restricted to minimize aesthetic intrusion and alteration to levee tie-back; bow waves push debris into the downstream intake wall, but the wall needs to maintain an opening to flush debris out from the intake structure; the river delivers significant sediment load, but any proposed intake structure cannot significantly alter existing bathymetry; EPA Clean Water Act Section 316(b) limited maximum velocity at the intake structure to 0.5 fps for entrainment prevention. To expedite alternative evaluation while providing sufficient data to inform management decision, instead of developing physical models, the project team developed a two-tier approach utilizing the TELEMAC hydrodynamic program to prepare screening analysis in 2D modeling and final evaluation in 3D modeling. The model was built upon the USACE ERDC ADH model, calibrated with river gauge data and peer reviewed by ERDC. TELEMAC, developed by EDF, provides novel features for modeling improvement options, including the recommended design concept, which is a hydraulically optimized intake geometry configured to maintain uniform intake flow while streamlining river flowline for debris and sediment deflection. The design includes submerged inlets with upstream and downstream walls to block floating debris and bed load movement, large intake screens to reduce velocity, and a log-boom debris deflection system that floats with the river level. This project demonstrated a time and cost efficient approach to develop reliable solutions and hydrodynamic data describing design alternatives performance.

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale.

PubMed

Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-01-01

Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale , there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block-intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a single pseudo-level. The joint optimization ensured that treatment concurrences were equally balanced across pairs, one of the prerequisites for an efficient design. The proposed alternative approaches can be implemented with any model-based design packages with facilities to formulate linear models for treatment and block structures.

Contraction Options and Optimal Multiple-Stopping in Spectrally Negative Lévy Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamazaki, Kazutoshi, E-mail: kyamazak@kansai-u.ac.jp

This paper studies the optimal multiple-stopping problem arising in the context of the timing option to withdraw from a project in stages. The profits are driven by a general spectrally negative Lévy process. This allows the model to incorporate sudden declines of the project values, generalizing greatly the classical geometric Brownian motion model. We solve the one-stage case as well as the extension to the multiple-stage case. The optimal stopping times are of threshold-type and the value function admits an expression in terms of the scale function. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to verify the optimality and tomore » evaluate the efficiency of the algorithm.« less

Information Distortion in the Evaluation of a Single Option

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bond, Samuel D.; Carlson, Kurt A.; Meloy, Margaret G.; Russo, J. Edward; Tanner, Robin J.

2007-01-01

Extending previous work on biased predecisional processing, we investigate the distortion of information during the evaluation of a single option. A coherence-based account of the evaluation task suggests that individuals will form an initial assessment of favorability toward the option and then bias their evaluation of subsequent information to…

TANK SPACE ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS REPORT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

TURNER DA; KIRCH NW; WASHENFELDER DJ

2010-04-27

This report addresses the projected shortfall of double-shell tank (DST) space starting in 2018. Using a multi-variant methodology, a total of eight new-term options and 17 long-term options for recovering DST space were evaluated. These include 11 options that were previously evaluated in RPP-7702, Tank Space Options Report (Rev. 1). Based on the results of this evaluation, two near-term and three long-term options have been identified as being sufficient to overcome the shortfall of DST space projected to occur between 2018 and 2025.

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

75 FR 17412 - Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator AGENCY: National Cancer Institute (NCI), National... Evaluation Program (CTEP) INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OPTION. The proposed policy, if finalized, would establish... recommended Intellectual Property Option and Institution Notification if they wish to be considered for...

Future Shop: A Model Career Placement & Transition Laboratory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floyd, Deborah L.; And Others

During 1988-89, the Collin County Community College District (CCCCD) conducted a project to develop, implement, and evaluate a model career laboratory called a "Future Shop." The laboratory was designed to let users explore diverse career options, job placement opportunities, and transfer resources. The Future Shop lab had three major components:…

A Digital Computer Simulation of Cardiovascular and Renal Physiology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tidball, Charles S.

1979-01-01

Presents the physiological MACPEE, one of a family of digital computer simulations used in Canada and Great Britain. A general description of the model is provided, along with a sample of computer output format, options for making interventions, advanced capabilities, an evaluation, and technical information for running a MAC model. (MA)

Design of Training Systems (DOTS) Project: Test and Evaluation of Phase II Models

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-04-01

when the process being modeled is very much dependent upon human resoarces, precise requirement formulas are usually V unavailable. In this...mixed integer formulation options. The SGRR, in a sense, is an automiation of what is cu~rrently beinig donec men~tall y by instructors and trai ninrg nv...test and evaluation (T&E); information concerning CNETS LCDR R. J. Biersner Human Factors Analysis, N-214 AV 922-1392 CNTECHTRA CDR J. D. Davis

Financing Long-Term Services And Supports: Options Reflect Trade-Offs For Older Americans And Federal Spending.

PubMed

Favreault, Melissa M; Gleckman, Howard; Johnson, Richard W

2015-12-01

About half of older Americans will need a high level of assistance with routine activities for a prolonged period of time. This help is commonly referred to as long-term services and supports (LTSS). Under current policies, these individuals will fund roughly half of their paid care out of pocket. Partly as a result of high costs and uncertainty, relatively few people purchase private long-term care insurance or save sufficiently to fully finance LTSS; many will eventually turn to Medicaid for help. To show how policy changes could expand insurance's role in financing these needs, we modeled several new insurance options. Specifically, we looked at a front-end-only benefit that provides coverage relatively early in the period of disability but caps benefits, a back-end benefit with no lifetime limit, and a combined comprehensive benefit. We modeled mandatory and voluntary versions of each option, and subsidized and unsubsidized versions of each voluntary option. We identified important differences among the alternatives, highlighting relevant trade-offs that policy makers can consider in evaluating proposals. If the primary goal is to significantly increase insurance coverage, the mandatory options would be more successful than the voluntary versions. If the major aim is to reduce Medicaid costs, the comprehensive and back-end mandatory options would be most beneficial. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Context-dependent preferences in starlings: linking ecology, foraging and choice.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Marco; Monteiro, Tiago; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-01-01

Foraging animals typically encounter opportunities that they either pursue or skip, but occasionally meet several alternatives simultaneously. Behavioural ecologists predict preferences using absolute properties of each option, while decision theorists focus on relative evaluations at the time of choice. We use European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to integrate ecological reasoning with decision models, linking and testing hypotheses for value acquisition and choice mechanism. We hypothesise that options' values depend jointly on absolute attributes, learning context, and subject's state. In simultaneous choices, preference could result either from comparing subjective values using deliberation time, or from processing each alternative independently, without relative comparisons. The combination of the value acquisition hypothesis and independent processing at choice time has been called the Sequential Choice Model. We test this model with options equated in absolute properties to exclude the possibility of preference being built at the time of choice. Starlings learned to obtain food by responding to four stimuli in two contexts. In context [AB], they encountered options A5 or B10 in random alternation; in context [CD], they met C10 or D20. Delay to food is denoted, in seconds, by the suffixes. Observed latency to respond (Li) to each option alone (our measure of value) ranked thus: LA≈LC

A Landscape Model (LEEMATH) to Evaluate Effects of Management Impacts on Timber and Wildlife Habitat

Treesearch

Harbin Li; David L. Gartner; Pu Mou; Carl C. Trettin

2000-01-01

Managing forest resources for sustainability requires the successful integration of economic and ecological goals. To attain such integration, land managers need decision support tools that incorporate science, land-use strategies, and policy options to assess resources sustainability at large scales. Landscape Evaluation of Effects of Management Activities on Timber...

A data collection and processing procedure for evaluating a research program

Treesearch

Giuseppe Rensi; H. Dean Claxton

1972-01-01

A set of computer programs compiled for the information processing requirements of a model for evaluating research proposals are described. The programs serve to assemble and store information, periodically update it, and convert it to a form usable for decision-making. Guides for collecting and coding data are explained. The data-processing options available and...

Landfill area estimation based on integrated waste disposal options and solid waste forecasting using modified ANFIS model.

PubMed

Younes, Mohammad K; Nopiah, Z M; Basri, N E Ahmad; Basri, H; Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Younes, Mohammed Y

2016-09-01

Solid waste prediction is crucial for sustainable solid waste management. The collection of accurate waste data records is challenging in developing countries. Solid waste generation is usually correlated with economic, demographic and social factors. However, these factors are not constant due to population and economic growth. The objective of this research is to minimize the land requirements for solid waste disposal for implementation of the Malaysian vision of waste disposal options. This goal has been previously achieved by integrating the solid waste forecasting model, waste composition and the Malaysian vision. The modified adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (MANFIS) was employed to develop a solid waste prediction model and search for the optimum input factors. The performance of the model was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R(2)). The model validation results are as follows: RMSE for training=0.2678, RMSE for testing=3.9860 and R(2)=0.99. Implementation of the Malaysian vision for waste disposal options can minimize the land requirements for waste disposal by up to 43%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling mitigation options to reduce diffuse nitrogen water pollution from agriculture.

PubMed

Bouraoui, Fayçal; Grizzetti, Bruna

2014-01-15

Agriculture is responsible for large scale water quality degradation and is estimated to contribute around 55% of the nitrogen entering the European Seas. The key policy instrument for protecting inland, transitional and coastal water resources is the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Reducing nutrient losses from agriculture is crucial to the successful implementation of the WFD. There are several mitigation measures that can be implemented to reduce nitrogen losses from agricultural areas to surface and ground waters. For the selection of appropriate measures, models are useful for quantifying the expected impacts and the associated costs. In this article we review some of the models used in Europe to assess the effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation measures, ranging from fertilizer management to the construction of riparian areas and wetlands. We highlight how the complexity of models is correlated with the type of scenarios that can be tested, with conceptual models mostly used to evaluate the impact of reduced fertilizer application, and the physically-based models used to evaluate the timing and location of mitigation options and the response times. We underline the importance of considering the lag time between the implementation of measures and effects on water quality. Models can be effective tools for targeting mitigation measures (identifying critical areas and timing), for evaluating their cost effectiveness, for taking into consideration pollution swapping and considering potential trade-offs in contrasting environmental objectives. Models are also useful for involving stakeholders during the development of catchments mitigation plans, increasing their acceptability. © 2013.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Treesearch

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

2009-01-01

Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

Wind-energy storage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, L. H.

1980-01-01

Program SIMWEST can model wind energy storage system using any combination of five types of storage: pumped hydro, battery, thermal, flywheel, and pneumatic. Program is tool to aid design of optional system for given application with realistic simulation for further evaluation and verification.

Estimating the Effects of Urban Travel Policies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-04-01

The report presents models and procedures for quick evaluation of transportation policy options on urban travel behavior. The methods described in this report can be used to estimate the travel demand effects of a wide variety of transportation polic...

Comparison of turbulence models and CFD solution options for a plain pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canli, Eyub; Ates, Ali; Bilir, Sefik

2018-06-01

Present paper is partly a declaration of state of a currently ongoing PhD work about turbulent flow in a thick walled pipe in order to analyze conjugate heat transfer. An ongoing effort on CFD investigation of this problem using cylindrical coordinates and dimensionless governing equations is identified alongside a literature review. The mentioned PhD work will be conducted using an in-house developed code. However it needs preliminary evaluation by means of commercial codes available in the field. Accordingly ANSYS CFD was utilized in order to evaluate mesh structure needs and asses the turbulence models and solution options in terms of computational power versus difference signification. Present work contains a literature survey, an arrangement of governing equations of the PhD work, CFD essentials of the preliminary analysis and findings about the mesh structure and solution options. Mesh element number was changed between 5,000 and 320,000. k-ɛ, k-ω, Spalart-Allmaras and Viscous-Laminar models were compared. Reynolds number was changed between 1,000 and 50,000. As it may be expected due to the literature, k-ɛ yields more favorable results near the pipe axis and k-ωyields more convenient results near the wall. However k-ɛ is found sufficient to give turbulent structures for a conjugate heat transfer problem in a thick walled plain pipe.

48 CFR 52.217-3 - Evaluation Exclusive of Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Options. 52.217-3 Section 52.217-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION....217-3 Evaluation Exclusive of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(a), insert a provision substantially the same as the following in solicitations when the solicitation includes an option clause and does...

Life-cycle assessment of selected management options for air pollution control residues from waste incineration.

PubMed

Fruergaard, Thilde; Hyks, Jiri; Astrup, Thomas

2010-09-15

Based on available technology and emission data seven selected management options for air-pollution-control (APC) residues from waste incineration were evaluated by life-cycle assessment (LCA) using the EASEWASTE model. Scenarios were evaluated with respect to both non-toxicity impact categories (e.g. global warming) and toxicity related impact categories (e.g. ecotoxicity and human toxicity). The assessment addressed treatment and final placement of 1 tonne of APC residue in seven scenarios: 1) direct landfilling without treatment (baseline), 2) backfilling in salt mines, 3) neutralization of waste acid, 4) filler material in asphalt, 5) Ferrox stabilization, 6) vitrification, and 7) melting with automobile shredder residues (ASR). The management scenarios were selected as examples of the wide range of different technologies available worldwide while at the same time using realistic technology data. Results from the LCA were discussed with respect to importance of: energy consumption/substitution, material substitution, leaching, air emissions, time horizon aspects for the assessment, and transportation distances. The LCA modeling showed that thermal processes were associated with the highest loads in the non-toxicity categories (energy consumption), while differences between the remaining alternatives were small and generally considered insignificant. In the toxicity categories, all treatment/utilization options were significantly better than direct landfilling without treatment (lower leaching), although the thermal processes had somewhat higher impacts than the others options (air emissions). Transportation distances did not affect the overall ranking of the management alternatives. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model to evaluate mass vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Crowe, Sonya; Utley, Martin; Walker, Guy; Grove, Peter; Pagel, Christina

2011-07-12

A mathematical model has been developed for the purpose of evaluating vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza. As the characteristics of a future pandemic cannot be known in advance, three distinct pandemic scenarios were considered, corresponding to a 1918-like pandemic, a 1957/1968-like pandemic and a 2009-like pandemic. Model estimates for each of these pandemic scenarios are presented for two options of vaccination programme; universal vaccination of the entire UK population and vaccination only of those people considered to be at heightened risk of developing influenza complications. We find that the benefits of each option (in terms of estimated number of deaths and hospital admissions avoided and the courses of antibiotics saved) are high in a 1918-like pandemic and very small in a 2009-like pandemic. Given that the decision regarding deployment of the counter measure would occur prior to knowledge of the flu-strain characteristics being available, we also present the weighted average of the outcomes from the three pandemic scenarios. Based on the historical occurrence of pandemics over the last 100 years, the weighted average of outcomes is an estimated 1400 deaths prevented by the universal vaccination option and 400 deaths saved by the targeted vaccination option (at a cost of approximately 400 million and 50 million courses of vaccine respectively). Finally, the longer term implications of using PPV as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza have been considered by estimating the expected number of courses of vaccine bought and the expected number of deaths and hospital admissions prevented over time under each policy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A microcomputer based traffic evacuation modeling system for emergency planning application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rathi, A.K.

1994-12-01

Vehicular evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in a real or anticipated disaster. Computer simulation models of evacuation traffic flow are used to estimate the time required for the affected populations to evacuate to safer areas, to evaluate effectiveness of vehicular evacuations as a protective action option. and to develop comprehensive evacuation plans when required. Following a review of the past efforts to simulate traffic flow during emergency evacuations, an overview of the key features in Version 2.0 of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) are presented in thismore » paper. OREMS is a microcomputer-based model developed to simulate traffic flow during regional emergency evacuations. OREMS integrates a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic flow and simulation model with advanced data editing and output display programs operating under a MS-Windows environment.« less

Nature of collective decision-making by simple yes/no decision units.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Mizumoto, Nobuaki; Kobayashi, Kazuya; Dobata, Shigeto; Yoshimura, Jin; Watanabe, Saori; Murakami, Yuuka; Matsuura, Kenji

2017-10-31

The study of collective decision-making spans various fields such as brain and behavioural sciences, economics, management sciences, and artificial intelligence. Despite these interdisciplinary applications, little is known regarding how a group of simple 'yes/no' units, such as neurons in the brain, can select the best option among multiple options. One prerequisite for achieving such correct choices by the brain is correct evaluation of relative option quality, which enables a collective decision maker to efficiently choose the best option. Here, we applied a sensory discrimination mechanism using yes/no units with differential thresholds to a model for making a collective choice among multiple options. The performance corresponding to the correct choice was shown to be affected by various parameters. High performance can be achieved by tuning the threshold distribution with the options' quality distribution. The number of yes/no units allocated to each option and its variability profoundly affects performance. When this variability is large, a quorum decision becomes superior to a majority decision under some conditions. The general features of this collective decision-making by a group of simple yes/no units revealed in this study suggest that this mechanism may be useful in applications across various fields.

DEVELOPMENT OF A CHEMICAL PROCESS MODELING ENVIRONMENT BASED ON CAPE-OPEN INTERFACE STANDARDS AND THE MICROSOFT .NET FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical process simulation has long been used as a design tool in the development of chemical plants, and has long been considered a means to evaluate different design options. With the advent of large scale computer networks and interface models for program components, it is po...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Laura L.; Barela, Amanda Crystal; Walkow, Walter M.

An Evaluation and Screening team supporting the Fuel Cycle Technologies Program Office of the United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy is conducting an evaluation and screening of a comprehensive set of fuel cycle options. These options have been assigned to one of 40 evaluation groups, each of which has a representative fuel cycle option [Todosow 2013]. A Fuel Cycle Data Package System Datasheet has been prepared for each representative fuel cycle option to ensure that the technical information used in the evaluation is high-quality and traceable [Kim, et al., 2013]. The information contained in the Fuel Cyclemore » Data Packages has been entered into the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options Catalog at Sandia National Laboratories so that it is accessible by the evaluation and screening team and other interested parties. In addition, an independent team at Savannah River National Laboratory has verified that the information has been entered into the catalog correctly. This report documents that the 40 representative fuel cycle options have been entered into the Catalog, and that the data entered into the catalog for the 40 representative options has been entered correctly.« less

Exploration Architecture Options - ECLSS, EVA, TCS Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Henninger, Don; Lawrence, Carl

2010-01-01

Many options for exploration of space have been identified and evaluated since the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) was announced in 2004. Lunar architectures have been identified and addressed in the Lunar Surface Systems team to establish options for how to get to and then inhabit and explore the moon. The Augustine Commission evaluated human space flight for the Obama administration and identified many options for how to conduct human spaceflight in the future. This paper will evaluate the options for exploration of space for the implications of architectures on the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS), ExtraVehicular Activity (EVA) and Thermal Control System (TCS) Systems. The advantages and disadvantages of each architecture and options are presented.

Development of pollution reduction strategies for Mexico City: Estimating cost and ozone reduction effectiveness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thayer, G.R.; Hardie, R.W.; Barrera-Roldan, A.

1993-12-31

This reports on the collection and preparation of data (costs and air quality improvement) for the strategic evaluation portion of the Mexico City Air Quality Research Initiative (MARI). Reports written for the Mexico City government by various international organizations were used to identify proposed options along with estimates of cost and emission reductions. Information from appropriate options identified by SCAQMD for Southem California were also used in the analysis. A linear optimization method was used to select a group of options or a strategy to be evaluated by decision analysis. However, the reduction of ozone levels is not a linearmore » function of the reduction of hydrocarbon and NO{sub x} emissions. Therefore, a more detailed analysis was required for ozone. An equation for a plane on an isopleth calculated with a trajectory model was obtained using two endpoints that bracket the expected total ozone precursor reductions plus the starting concentrations for hydrocarbons and NO{sub x}. The relationship between ozone levels and the hydrocarbon and NO{sub x} concentrations was assumed to lie on this plane. This relationship was used in the linear optimization program to select the options comprising a strategy.« less

Modeling of transitional flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lund, Thomas S.

1988-01-01

An effort directed at developing improved transitional models was initiated. The focus of this work was concentrated on the critical assessment of a popular existing transitional model developed by McDonald and Fish in 1972. The objective of this effort was to identify the shortcomings of the McDonald-Fish model and to use the insights gained to suggest modifications or alterations of the basic model. In order to evaluate the transitional model, a compressible boundary layer code was required. Accordingly, a two-dimensional compressible boundary layer code was developed. The program was based on a three-point fully implicit finite difference algorithm where the equations were solved in an uncoupled manner with second order extrapolation used to evaluate the non-linear coefficients. Iteration was offered as an option if the extrapolation error could not be tolerated. The differencing scheme was arranged to be second order in both spatial directions on an arbitrarily stretched mesh. A variety of boundary condition options were implemented including specification of an external pressure gradient, specification of a wall temperature distribution, and specification of an external temperature distribution. Overall the results of the initial phase of this work indicate that the McDonald-Fish model does a poor job at predicting the details of the turbulent flow structure during the transition region.

Evaluation of neovascularization patterns in an orthotopic rat glioma model with dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI.

PubMed

Xuesong, Du; Wei, Xue; Heng, Liu; Xiao, Chen; Shunan, Wang; Yu, Guo; Weiguo, Zhang

2017-09-01

Background Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) has been proved useful in evaluating glioma angiogenesis, but the utility in evaluating neovascularization patterns has not been reported. Purpose To evaluate in vivo real-time glioma neovascularization patterns by measuring glioma perfusion quantitatively using DCE-MRI. Material and Methods Thirty Sprague-Dawley rats were used to establish C6 orthotopic glioma model and underwent MRI and pathology detections. As MRI and pathology were performed at six time points (i.e. 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 days) post transplantation, neovascularization patterns were evaluated via DCE-MRI. Results Four neovascularization patterns were observed in glioma tissues. Sprout angiogenesis and intussusceptive microvascular growth located inside tumor, while vascular co-option and vascular mimicry were found in the tumor margin and necrotic area, respectively. Sprout angiogenesis and intussusceptive microvascular growth increased with K trans , K ep , and V p inside tumor tissue. In addition, K ep and V p were positively correlated with sprout angiogenesis and intussusceptive microvascular growth. Vascular co-option was decreased at 12 and 16 days post transplantation and correlated negatively with K trans and K ep detected in the glioma margin, respectively. Changes of vascular mimicry showed no significant statistical difference at the six time points. Conclusion Our results indicate that DCE-MRI can evaluate neovascularization patterns in a glioma model. Furthermore, DCE-MRI could be an imaging biomarker for guidance of antiangiogenic treatments in humans in the future.

Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

PubMed

Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

2017-12-23

In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

PubMed

Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

2005-12-01

We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42% concordance. This study successfully validated the usefulness of a computer based prostate cancer management decision making model to produce individualized, rational, clinically appropriate disease management decisions without physician bias.

Induced traffic and induced demand in benefit-cost analysis - draft

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-07-01

Subsequent to the US DOT's 1995 "conditions and Performance" report to Congress, the HERS (Highway Economic Requirements System) model used by FHWA to evaluate national highway investment options was modified to incorporate both short run and long ru...

Computer-Aided Group Problem Solving for Unified Life Cycle Engineering (ULCE)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

defining the problem, generating alternative solutions, evaluating alternatives, selecting alternatives, and implementing the solution. Systems...specialist in group dynamics, assists the group in formulating the problem and selecting a model framework. The analyst provides the group with computer...allocating resources, evaluating and selecting options, making judgments explicit, and analyzing dynamic systems. c. University of Rhode Island Drs. Geoffery

Exponential model for option prices: Application to the Brazilian market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Carvalho, J. A.; Vasconcelos, G. L.

2016-03-01

In this paper we report an empirical analysis of the Ibovespa index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange and its respective option contracts. We compare the empirical data on the Ibovespa options with two option pricing models, namely the standard Black-Scholes model and an empirical model that assumes that the returns are exponentially distributed. It is found that at times near the option expiration date the exponential model performs better than the Black-Scholes model, in the sense that it fits the empirical data better than does the latter model.

Uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Sudheer, K.; Her, Y.

2012-12-01

Use of computer simulation models have increased substantially to make watershed management decisions and to develop strategies for water quality improvements. These models are often used to evaluate potential benefits of various best management practices (BMPs) for reducing losses of pollutants from sources areas into receiving waterbodies. Similarly, use of simulation models in optimizing selection and placement of best management practices under single (maximization of crop production or minimization of pollutant transport) and multiple objective functions has increased recently. One of the limitations of the currently available assessment and optimization approaches is that the BMP strategies are considered deterministic. Uncertainties in input data (e.g. precipitation, streamflow, sediment, nutrient and pesticide losses measured, land use) and model parameters may result in considerable uncertainty in watershed response under various BMP options. We have developed and evaluated options to include uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management. We have also applied these methods to evaluate uncertainty in ecosystem services from mixed land use watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss methods to to quantify uncertainties in BMP assessment and optimization solutions due to uncertainties in model inputs and parameters. We have used a watershed model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT) to simulate the hydrology and water quality in mixed land use watershed located in Midwest USA. The SWAT model was also used to represent various BMPs in the watershed needed to improve water quality. SWAT model parameters, land use change parameters, and climate change parameters were considered uncertain. It was observed that model parameters, land use and climate changes resulted in considerable uncertainties in BMP performance in reducing P, N, and sediment loads. In addition, climate change scenarios also affected uncertainties in SWAT simulated crop yields. Considerable uncertainties in the net cost and the water quality improvements resulted due to uncertainties in land use, climate change, and model parameter values.

Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales - Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA's Community Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, P.; Kahil, T.; Satoh, Y.; Greve, P.; Byers, E.; Langan, S.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Half of the planet's population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA's integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At the same time, we assess water needs for humans and environment to identify the population and regions that are vulnerable to changes linked to extremes such as water scarcity, droughts and floods. Different solution-portfolios to facilitate regional water management planning will be further discussed.

Waste heat recovery options in a large gas-turbine combined power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upathumchard, Ularee

This study focuses on power plant heat loss and how to utilize the waste heat in energy recovery systems in order to increase the overall power plant efficiency. The case study of this research is a 700-MW natural gas combined cycle power plant, located in a suburban area of Thailand. An analysis of the heat loss of the combustion process, power generation process, lubrication system, and cooling system has been conducted to evaluate waste heat recovery options. The design of the waste heat recovery options depends to the amount of heat loss from each system and its temperature. Feasible waste heat sources are combustion turbine (CT) room ventilation air and lubrication oil return from the power plant. The following options are being considered in this research: absorption chillers for cooling with working fluids Ammonia-Water and Water-Lithium Bromide (in comparison) and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) with working fluids R134a and R245fa. The absorption cycles are modeled in three different stages; single-effect, double-effect and half-effect. ORC models used are simple ORC as a baseline, ORC with internal regenerator, ORC two-phase flash expansion ORC and ORC with multiple heat sources. Thermodynamic models are generated and each system is simulated using Engineering Equation Solver (EES) to define the most suitable waste heat recovery options for the power plant. The result will be synthesized and evaluated with respect to exergy utilization efficiency referred as the Second Law effectiveness and net output capacity. Results of the models give recommendation to install a baseline ORC of R134a and a double-effect water-lithium bromide absorption chiller, driven by ventilation air from combustion turbine compartment. The two technologies yield reasonable economic payback periods of 4.6 years and 0.7 years, respectively. The fact that this selected power plant is in its early stage of operation allows both models to economically and effectively perform waste heat recovery during the power plant's life span. Furthermore, the recommendation from this research will be submitted to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) for implementation. This study will also be used as an example for other power plants in Thailand to consider waste energy utilization to improve plant efficiency and sustain fuel resources in the future.

Mass discharge estimation from contaminated sites: Multi-model solutions for assessment of conceptual uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, N. I.; Troldborg, M.; McKnight, U. S.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

2012-04-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites. Such estimates have proven useful for supporting decisions related to the prioritization of contaminated sites in a groundwater catchment. Potential management options can be categorised as follows: (1) leave as is, (2) clean up, or (3) further investigation needed. However, mass discharge estimates are often very uncertain, which may hamper the management decisions. If option 1 is incorrectly chosen soil and water quality will decrease, threatening or destroying drinking water resources. The risk of choosing option 2 is to spend money on remediating a site that does not pose a problem. Choosing option 3 will often be safest, but may not be the optimal economic solution. Quantification of the uncertainty in mass discharge estimates can therefore greatly improve the foundation for selecting the appropriate management option. The uncertainty of mass discharge estimates depends greatly on the extent of the site characterization. A good approach for uncertainty estimation will be flexible with respect to the investigation level, and account for both parameter and conceptual model uncertainty. We propose a method for quantifying the uncertainty of dynamic mass discharge estimates from contaminant point sources on the local scale. The method considers both parameter and conceptual uncertainty through a multi-model approach. The multi-model approach evaluates multiple conceptual models for the same site. The different conceptual models consider different source characterizations and hydrogeological descriptions. The idea is to include a set of essentially different conceptual models where each model is believed to be realistic representation of the given site, based on the current level of information. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. For each conceptual model we calculate a transient mass discharge estimate with uncertainty bounds resulting from the parametric uncertainty. To quantify the conceptual uncertainty from a given site, we combine the outputs from the different conceptual models using Bayesian model averaging. The weight for each model is obtained by integrating available data and expert knowledge using Bayesian belief networks. The multi-model approach is applied to a contaminated site. At the site a DNAPL (dense non aqueous phase liquid) spill consisting of PCE (perchloroethylene) has contaminated a fractured clay till aquitard overlaying a limestone aquifer. The exact shape and nature of the source is unknown and so is the importance of transport in the fractures. The result of the multi-model approach is a visual representation of the uncertainty of the mass discharge estimates for the site which can be used to support the management options.

Evaluating Mars Science Laboratory Landing Sites with the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, H. L.; Justus, C. G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) [1]. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Mars-GRAM and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), with altitudes referenced to the MOLA areoid, or constant potential surface. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by observed TES dust optical depth or (2) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from MGCM model results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth. Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated [2] against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES [3]. There are several new features included in Mars-GRAM 2005. The first is the option to use input data sets from MGCM model runs that were designed to closely simulate conditions observed during the first two years of TES observations at Mars. The TES Year 1 option includes values from April 1999 through January 2001. The TES Year 2 option includes values from February 2001 through December 2002. The second new feature is the option to read and use any auxiliary profile of temperature and density versus altitude. In exercising the auxiliary profile Mars-GRAM option, values from the auxiliary profile replace data from the original MGCM databases. Some examples of auxiliary profiles include data from TES nadir or limb observations and Mars mesoscale model output at a particular location and time. The final new feature is the addition of two Mars-GRAM parameters that allow standard deviations of Mars-GRAM perturbations to be adjusted. The parameter rpscale can be used to scale density perturbations up or down while rwscale can be used to scale wind perturbations.

Identify potential lock treatment options to prevent movement of aquatic invasive species through the Chicago Area Waterways System (CAWS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubert, Terrance D.; Boogaard, Michael A.; Fredricks, Kim T.

2016-01-14

Compatibility of the various options was also evaluated to assess the possibility that options could be combined to enhance efficacy. Engineering requirements were not considered as part of this evaluation. The available information suggests that hot water at 43 °C and ozone are the most feasible options.

Governing Academic Medical Center Systems: Evaluating and Choosing Among Alternative Governance Approaches.

PubMed

Chari, Ramya; O'Hanlon, Claire; Chen, Peggy; Leuschner, Kristin; Nelson, Christopher

2018-02-01

The ability of academic medical centers (AMCs) to fulfill their triple mission of patient care, medical education, and research is increasingly being threatened by rising financial pressures and resource constraints. Many AMCs are, therefore, looking to expand into academic medical systems, increasing their scale through consolidation or affiliation with other health care systems. As clinical operations grow, though, the need for effective governance becomes even more critical to ensure that the business of patient care does not compromise the rest of the triple mission. Multi-AMC systems, a model in which multiple AMCs are governed by a single body, pose a particular challenge in balancing unity with the needs of component AMCs, and therefore offer lessons for designing AMC governance approaches. This article describes the development and application of a set of criteria to evaluate governance options for one multi-AMC system-the University of California (UC) and its five AMCs. Based on a literature review and key informant interviews, the authors identified criteria for evaluating governance approaches (structures and processes), assessed current governance approaches using the criteria, identified alternative governance options, and assessed each option using the identified criteria. The assessment aided UC in streamlining governance operations to enhance their ability to respond efficiently to change and to act collectively. Although designed for UC and a multi-AMC model, the criteria may provide a systematic way for any AMC to assess the strengths and weaknesses of its governance approaches.

Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J.; Ek, M. B.; Wei, H.; Meng, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface serves as lower boundary forcing in global forecast system (GFS) and climate forecast system (CFS), simulating interactions between land and the atmosphere. Understanding the underlying land model physics is a key to improving weather and seasonal prediction skills. With the upgrades in land model physics (e.g., release of newer versions of a land model), different land initializations, changes in parameterization schemes used in the land model (e.g., land physical parametrization options), and how the land impact is handled (e.g., physics ensemble approach), it always prompts the necessity that climate prediction experiments need to be re-conducted to examine its impact. The current NASA LIS (version 7) integrates NOAA operational land surface and hydrological models (NCEP's Noah, versions from 2.7.1 to 3.6 and the future Noah-MP), high-resolution satellite and observational data, and land DA tools. The newer versions of the Noah LSM used in operational models have a variety of enhancements compared to older versions, where the Noah-MP allows for different physics parameterization options and the choice could have large impact on physical processes underlying seasonal predictions. These impacts need to be reexamined before implemented into NCEP operational systems. A set of offline numerical experiments driven by the GFS forecast forcing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of snow modeling with daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

Investigation of non-Gaussian effects in the Brazilian option market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sosa-Correa, William O.; Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Vasconcelos, Giovani L.

2018-04-01

An empirical study of the Brazilian option market is presented in light of three option pricing models, namely the Black-Scholes model, the exponential model, and a model based on a power law distribution, the so-called q-Gaussian distribution or Tsallis distribution. It is found that the q-Gaussian model performs better than the Black-Scholes model in about one third of the option chains analyzed. But among these cases, the exponential model performs better than the q-Gaussian model in 75% of the time. The superiority of the exponential model over the q-Gaussian model is particularly impressive for options close to the expiration date, where its success rate rises above ninety percent.

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale

PubMed Central

Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale, there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block–intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a single pseudo-level. The joint optimization ensured that treatment concurrences were equally balanced across pairs, one of the prerequisites for an efficient design. The proposed alternative approaches can be implemented with any model-based design packages with facilities to formulate linear models for treatment and block structures. PMID:29354145

Valuing options in shot noise market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laskin, Nick

2018-07-01

A new exactly solvable option pricing model has been introduced and elaborated. It is assumed that a stock price follows a Geometric shot noise process. An arbitrage-free integro-differential option pricing equation has been obtained and solved. The new Greeks have been analytically calculated. It has been shown that in diffusion approximation the developed option pricing model incorporates the well-known Black-Scholes equation and its solution. The stochastic dynamic origin of the Black-Scholes volatility has been uncovered. To model the observed market stock price patterns consisting of high frequency small magnitude and low frequency large magnitude jumps, the superposition of two Geometric shot noises has been implemented. A new generalized option pricing equation has been obtained and its exact solution was found. Merton's jump-diffusion formula for option price was recovered in diffusion approximation. Despite the non-Gaussian nature of probability distributions involved, the new option pricing model has the same degree of analytical tractability as the Black-Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. This attractive feature allows one to derive exact formulas to value options and option related instruments in the market with jump-like price patterns.

An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.

Evolution of a visual impact model to evaluate nuclear plant siting and design option

Treesearch

Brian A. Gray; John Ady; Grant R. Jones

1979-01-01

The development of a visual impact method- elegy is reviewed from first concepts (1973) to application.3/ The method can be used to train evaluators to use explicit criteria (vividness, intactness and unity) to assess change in a setting's visual quality as the result of construction of a nuclear facility, or any other visible alteration. Slides of "before...

An analysis of image storage systems for scalable training of deep neural networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Seung-Hwan; Young, Steven R; Patton, Robert M

This study presents a principled empirical evaluation of image storage systems for training deep neural networks. We employ the Caffe deep learning framework to train neural network models for three different data sets, MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet. While training the models, we evaluate five different options to retrieve training image data: (1) PNG-formatted image files on local file system; (2) pushing pixel arrays from image files into a single HDF5 file on local file system; (3) in-memory arrays to hold the pixel arrays in Python and C++; (4) loading the training data into LevelDB, a log-structured merge tree based key-valuemore » storage; and (5) loading the training data into LMDB, a B+tree based key-value storage. The experimental results quantitatively highlight the disadvantage of using normal image files on local file systems to train deep neural networks and demonstrate reliable performance with key-value storage based storage systems. When training a model on the ImageNet dataset, the image file option was more than 17 times slower than the key-value storage option. Along with measurements on training time, this study provides in-depth analysis on the cause of performance advantages/disadvantages of each back-end to train deep neural networks. We envision the provided measurements and analysis will shed light on the optimal way to architect systems for training neural networks in a scalable manner.« less

The extension of the thermal-vacuum test optimization program to multiple flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.; Byrd, J.

1981-01-01

The thermal vacuum test optimization model developed to provide an approach to the optimization of a test program based on prediction of flight performance with a single flight option in mind is extended to consider reflight as in space shuttle missions. The concept of 'utility', developed under the name of 'availability', is used to follow performance through the various options encountered when the capabilities of reflight and retrievability of space shuttle are available. Also, a 'lost value' model is modified to produce a measure of the probability of a mission's success, achieving a desired utility using a minimal cost test strategy. The resulting matrix of probabilities and their associated costs provides a means for project management to evaluate various test and reflight strategies.

Exploration Architecture Options - ECLSS, EVA, TCS Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Henninger, Don; Lawrence, Carl

2009-01-01

Many options for exploration of the Moon and Mars have been identified and evaluated since the Vision for Space Exploration VSE was announced in 2004. Lunar architectures have been identified and addressed in the Lunar Surface Systems team to establish options for how to get to and then inhabit and explore the moon. The Augustine Commission evaluated human space flight for the Obama administration and identified many options for how to conduct human spaceflight in the future. This paper will evaluate the options for exploration of the moon and Mars and those of the Augustine human spaceflight commission for the implications of each architecture on the Environmental Control and Life Support, ExtraVehicular Activity and Thermal Control systems. The advantages and disadvantages of each architecture and options are presented.

Integrating fisheries approaches and household utility models for improved resource management.

PubMed

Milner-Gulland, E J

2011-01-25

Natural resource management is littered with cases of overexploitation and ineffectual management, leading to loss of both biodiversity and human welfare. Disciplinary boundaries stifle the search for solutions to these issues. Here, I combine the approach of management strategy evaluation, widely applied in fisheries, with household utility models from the conservation and development literature, to produce an integrated framework for evaluating the effectiveness of competing management strategies for harvested resources against a range of performance metrics. I demonstrate the strengths of this approach with a simple model, and use it to examine the effect of manager ignorance of household decisions on resource management effectiveness, and an allocation tradeoff between monitoring resource stocks to reduce observation uncertainty and monitoring users to improve compliance. I show that this integrated framework enables management assessments to consider household utility as a direct metric for system performance, and that although utility and resource stock conservation metrics are well aligned, harvest yield is a poor proxy for both, because it is a product of household allocation decisions between alternate livelihood options, rather than an end in itself. This approach has potential far beyond single-species harvesting in situations where managers are in full control; I show that the integrated approach enables a range of management intervention options to be evaluated within the same framework.

Evaluating the Impact of Naltrexone on the Rat Gambling Task to Test Its Predictive Validity for Gambling Disorder.

PubMed

Di Ciano, Patricia; Le Foll, Bernard

2016-01-01

Gambling Disorder has serious consequences and no medications are currently approved for the treatment of this disorder. One factor that may make medication development difficult is the lack of animal models of gambling that would allow for the pre-clinical screening of efficacy. Despite this, there is evidence from clinical trials that opiate antagonists, in particular naltrexone, may be useful in treating gambling disorder. To-date, the effects of naltrexone on pre-clinical models of gambling have not been evaluated. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of naltrexone in an animal model of gambling, the rat gambling task (rGT), to determine whether this model has some predictive validity. The rGT is a model in which rats are given a choice of making either a response that produces a large reward or a small reward. The larger the reward, the greater the punishment, and thus this task requires that the animal inhibit the 'tempting' choice, as the smaller reward option produces overall the most number of rewards per session. People with gambling disorder chose the tempting option more, thus the rGT may provide a model of problem gambling. It was found that naltrexone improved performance on this task in a subset of animals that chose the 'tempting', disadvantageous choice, more at baseline. Thus, the results of this study suggest that the rGT should be further investigated as a pre-clinical model of gambling disorder and that further investigation into whether opioid antagonists are effective in treating Gambling Disorder may be warranted.

Progress on Implementing Additional Physics Schemes into ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has a team of scientists developing a next generation air quality modeling system employing the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) as its meteorological foundation. Several preferred physics schemes and options available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are regularly used by the USEPA with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to conduct retrospective air quality simulations. These include the Pleim surface layer, the Pleim-Xiu (PX) land surface model with fractional land use for a 40-class National Land Cover Database (NLCD40), the Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary layer scheme, the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization with subgrid-scale cloud feedback to the radiation schemes and a scale-aware convective time scale, and analysis nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA). All of these physics modules and options have already been implemented by the USEPA into MPAS-A v4.0, tested, and evaluated (please see the presentations of R. Gilliam and R. Bullock at this workshop). Since the release of MPAS v5.1 in May 2017, work has been under way to implement these preferred physics options into the MPAS-A v5.1 code. Test simulations of a summer month are being conducted on a global variable resolution mesh with the higher resolution cells centered over the contiguous United States. Driving fields for the FDDA and soil nudging are

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

Space Station needs, attributes and architectural options. Volume 2, book 1, part 1: Mission requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The baseline mission model used to develop the space station mission-related requirements is described as well as the 90 civil missions that were evaluated, (including the 62 missions that formed the baseline model). Mission-related requirements for the space station baseline are defined and related to space station architectural development. Mission-related sensitivity analyses are discussed.

IRI STORM validation over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

2014-05-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

PubMed

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-05-24

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain

PubMed Central

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-01-01

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM’s actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM’s side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990–2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion. PMID:27162346

Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

PubMed

Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-06-01

Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Benefit-cost evaluation of an intra-regional air service in the Bay area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haefner, L. E.

1977-01-01

Utilization of an iterative statistical model is presented to evaluate combinations of commuter airport sites and surface transportation facilities in confunction with service by a given commuter aircraft type in light of Bay Area regional growth alternatives and peak and off-peak regional travel patterns. The model evaluates such transportation options with respect to criteria of airline profitability, public acceptance, and public and private nonuser costs. It incorporates information modal split, peak and off-peak use of the air commuter fleet, terminal and airport cost, development costs and uses of land in proximity to the airport sites, regional population shifts, and induced zonal shifts in travel demand. The model is multimodal in its analytical capability, and performs exhaustive sensitivity analysis.

Creating Welcoming Spaces for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) Patients: An Evaluation of the Health Care Environment.

PubMed

McClain, Zachary; Hawkins, Linda A; Yehia, Baligh R

2016-01-01

Health outcomes are affected by patient, provider, and environmental factors. Previous studies have evaluated patient-level factors; few focusing on environment. Safe clinical spaces are important for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) communities. This study evaluates current models of LGBT health care delivery, identifies strengths and weaknesses, and makes recommendations for LGBT spaces. Models are divided into LGBT-specific and LGBT-embedded care delivery. Advantages to both models exist, and they provide LGBT patients different options of healthcare. Yet certain commonalities must be met: a clean and confidential system. Once met, LGBT-competent environments and providers can advocate for appropriate care for LGBT communities, creating environments where they would want to seek care.

Manned space station environmental control and life support system computer-aided technology assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, J. B., Jr.; Pickett, S. J.; Sage, K. H.

1984-01-01

A computer program for assessing manned space station environmental control and life support systems technology is described. The methodology, mission model parameters, evaluation criteria, and data base for 17 candidate technologies for providing metabolic oxygen and water to the crew are discussed. Examples are presented which demonstrate the capability of the program to evaluate candidate technology options for evolving space station requirements.

Exploration Architecture Options - ECLSS, TCS, EVA Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Henninger, Don

2011-01-01

Many options for exploration of space have been identified and evaluated since the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) was announced in 2004. The Augustine Commission evaluated human space flight for the Obama administration then the Human Exploration Framework Teams (HEFT and HEFT2) evaluated potential exploration missions and the infrastructure and technology needs for those missions. Lunar architectures have been identified and addressed by the Lunar Surface Systems team to establish options for how to get to, and then inhabit and explore, the moon. This paper will evaluate the options for exploration of space for the implications of architectures on the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS), Thermal Control (TCS), and Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Systems.

Bringing social standards into project evaluation under dynamic uncertainty.

PubMed

Knudsen, Odin K; Scandizzo, Pasquale L

2005-04-01

Society often sets social standards that define thresholds of damage to society or the environment above which compensation must be paid to the state or other parties. In this article, we analyze the interdependence between the use of social standards and investment evaluation under dynamic uncertainty where a negative externality above a threshold established by society requires an assessment and payment of damages. Under uncertainty, the party considering implementing a project or new technology must not only assess when the project is economically efficient to implement but when to abandon a project that could potentially exceed the social standard. Using real-option theory and simple models, we demonstrate how such a social standard can be integrated into cost-benefit analysis through the use of a development option and a liability option coupled with a damage function. Uncertainty, in fact, implies that both parties interpret the social standard as a target for safety rather than an inflexible barrier that cannot be overcome. The larger is the uncertainty, in fact, the greater will be the tolerance for damages in excess of the social standard from both parties.

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

48 CFR 17.206 - Evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation. 17.206 Section... CONTRACT TYPES SPECIAL CONTRACTING METHODS Options 17.206 Evaluation. (a) In awarding the basic contract... officer need not evaluate offers for any option quantities when it is determined that evaluation would not...

Economic comparison between conventional and disposables-based technology for the production of biopharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Novais, J L; Titchener-Hooker, N J; Hoare, M

2001-10-20

Time to market, cost effectiveness, and flexibility are key issues in today's biopharmaceutical market. Bioprocessing plants based on fully disposable, presterilized, and prevalidated components appear as an attractive alternative to conventional stainless steel plants, potentially allowing for shorter implementation times, smaller initial investments, and increased flexibility. To evaluate the economic case of such an alternative it was necessary to develop an appropriate costing model which allows an economic comparison between conventional and disposables-based engineering to be made. The production of an antibody fragment from an E. coli fermentation was used to provide a case study for both routes. The conventional bioprocessing option was costed through available models, which were then modified to account for the intrinsic differences observed in a disposables-based option. The outcome of the analysis indicates that the capital investment required for a disposables-based option is substantially reduced at less than 60% of that for a conventional option. The disposables-based running costs were evaluated as being 70% higher than those of the conventional equivalent. Despite this higher value, the net present value (NPV) of the disposables-based plant is positive and within 25% of that for the conventional plant. Sensitivity analysis performed on key variables indicated the robustness of the economic analysis presented. In particular a 9-month reduction in time to market arising from the adoption of a disposables-based approach, results in a NPV which is identical to that of the conventional option. Finally, the effect of any possible loss in yield resulting from the use of disposables was also examined. This had only a limited impact on the NPV: for example, a 50% lower yield in the disposable chromatography step results in a 10% reduction of the disposable NPV. The results provide the necessary framework for the economic comparison of disposables and conventional bioprocessing technologies. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

An overview of CERES-Sorghum as implemented in the cropping systems model version 4.5

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is the fifth most important grain crop globally. It stands out for its diversity of plant types, end-uses, and roles in cropping systems. This diversity presents opportunities but also complicates evaluation of production options, especially under climate uncert...

Database Selection: One Size Does Not Fit All.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allison, DeeAnn; McNeil, Beth; Swanson, Signe

2000-01-01

Describes a strategy for selecting a delivery method for electronic resources based on experiences at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Considers local conditions, pricing, feature options, hardware costs, and network availability and presents a model for evaluating the decision based on dollar requirements and local issues. (Author/LRW)

INTEGRATING STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES IN A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO EXPLORING SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS: TRIPLE VALUE SIMULATION (3VS) MODELS IN COASTAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Decision makers often need assistance in understanding the dynamic interactions and linkages among economic, environmental and social systems in coastal watersheds. They also need scientific input to better evaluate the potential costs and benefits of intervention options. The US...

A Many-Objective Approach to Developing Adaptive Water Supply Portfolios in the 'Research Triangle' Region of North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2012-12-01

This study uses many-objective evolutionary optimization to quantify the tradeoffs water utilities face when developing flexible water shortage response plans. Alternatives to infrastructure development, such as temporary demand management programs and inter-utility water transfer agreements, allow local water providers to develop portfolios of water supply options capable of adapting to changing hydrologic conditions and growing water demand. The extent to which these options are implemented will be determined by a number of conflicting operational and financial considerations. An integrated reservoir simulation model including four large water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina is used to evaluate the potential tradeoffs resulting from regional demands on shared infrastructure, customer concerns, and the financial uncertainty caused by the intermittent and irregular nature of drought. Instead of providing one optimal solution, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) use the concept of non-dominations to discover a set of portfolio options in which no solution is inferior to any other solution in all objectives. Interactive visual analytics enable water providers to explore these tradeoffs and develop water shortage response plans tailored to their individual circumstances. The simulation model is evaluated under a number of different formulations to help identify and visualize the impacts of water efficiency, revenue/cost variability, consumer effects, and inter-utility cooperation. The different problems are formulated by adding portfolio options and objectives in such a way that the lower dimensional problem formulations are sub-sets of the full formulation. The full formulation considers reservoir reliability, water use restriction frequency, total water transfer allotment, total costs, revenue/cost variability, and additional consumer losses during restrictions. The simulation results highlight the inadequacy of lower order, cost-benefit type analyses to evaluate water management techniques as they move beyond the construction of large storage infrastructure. This work can help water providers develop the analytical tools to evaluate complex, adaptive techniques that are becoming more attractive in an era of growing municipal demand, risking infrastructure costs, and uncertain hydrology.

State-and-transition prototype model of riparian vegetation downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralston, Barbara E.; Starfield, Anthony M.; Black, Ronald S.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.

2014-01-01

Facing an altered riparian plant community dominated by nonnative species, resource managers are increasingly interested in understanding how to manage and promote healthy riparian habitats in which native species dominate. For regulated rivers, managing flows is one tool resource managers consider to achieve these goals. Among many factors that can influence riparian community composition, hydrology is a primary forcing variable. Frame-based models, used successfully in grassland systems, provide an opportunity for stakeholders concerned with riparian systems to evaluate potential riparian vegetation responses to alternative flows. Frame-based, state-and-transition models of riparian vegetation for reattachment bars, separation bars, and the channel margin found on the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam were constructed using information from the literature. Frame-based models can be simple spreadsheet models (created in Microsoft® Excel) or developed further with programming languages (for example, C-sharp). The models described here include seven community states and five dam operations that cause transitions between states. Each model divides operations into growing (April–September) and non-growing seasons (October–March) and incorporates upper and lower bar models, using stage elevation as a division. The inputs (operations) can be used by stakeholders to evaluate flows that may promote dynamic riparian vegetation states, or identify those flow options that may promote less desirable states (for example, Tamarisk [Tamarix sp.] temporarily flooded shrubland). This prototype model, although simple, can still elicit discussion about operational options and vegetation response.

Strategic planning: a biomedical communications model.

PubMed

Barrett, J E

1991-01-01

This article describes a biomedical communications approach to strategic planning. This model produces a short-term plan that allows a department to take the competitive advantage, react to technological change, and make timely decisions on new courses of action. The model calls for self-study, involving staff in brainstorming sessions where options are identified and ideas are prioritized into possible strategies for success. The article recommends that an evaluation and monitoring schedule be implemented after decisions have been made.

Expert decision-making strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Kathleen L.

1991-01-01

A recognition-primed decisions (RPD) model is employed as a framework to investigate crew decision-making processes. The quality of information transfer, a critical component of the team RPD model and an indicator of the team's 'collective consciouness', is measured and analyzed with repect to crew performance. As indicated by the RPD model, timing and patterns of information search transfer were expected to reflect extensive and continual situation assessment, and serial evaluation of alternative states of the world or decision response options.

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

PubMed Central

Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Bax, Nicholas J.; Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Dambacher, Jeffrey M.; Dichmont, Catherine; Dunstan, Piers K.; Hayes, Keith R.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Pitcher, Roland; Plagányi, Éva E.; Punt, André E.; Savina-Rolland, Marie; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Smith, David C.

2015-01-01

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm. PMID:26460131

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. Themore » evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Identification of sewer pipes to be cleaned for reduction of CSO pollutant load.

PubMed

Nagaiwa, Akihiro; Settsu, Katsushi; Nakajima, Fumiyuki; Furumai, Hiroaki

2007-01-01

To reduce the CSO (Combined Sewer Overflow) pollutant discharge, one of the effective options is cleaning of sewer pipes before rainfall events. To maximize the efficiency, identification of pipes to be cleaned is necessary. In this study, we discussed the location of pipe deposit in dry weather in a combined sewer system using a distributed model and investigated the effect of pipe cleaning to reduce the pollutant load from the CSO. First we simulated the dry weather flow in a combined sewer system. The pipe deposit distribution in the network was estimated after 3 days of dry weather period. Several specific pipes with structural defect and upper end pipes tend to have an accumulation of deposit. Wet weather simulations were conducted with and without pipe cleaning in rainfall events with different patterns. The SS loads in CSO with and without the pipe cleaning were compared. The difference in the estimated loads was interpreted as the contribution of wash-off in the cleaned pipe. The effect of pipe cleaning on reduction of the CSO pollutant load was quantitatively evaluated (e.g. the cleaning of one specific pipe could reduce 22% of total CSO load). The CSO simulations containing pipe cleaning options revealed that identification of pipes with accumulated deposit using the distributed model is very useful and informative to evaluate the applicability of pipe cleaning option for CSO pollutant reduction.

A quadranomial real options model for evaluation of emissions trading and technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkis, Joseph; Tamarkin, Maurry

2005-11-01

Green house gas (GHG) emissions have been tied to global climate change. One popular policy instrument that seems to have gained credibility with explicit mention of its application in the Kyoto Protocol is the use of permit trading and cap-and-trade mechanisms. Organizations functioning within this environment will need to manage their resources appropriately to remain competitive. Organizations will either have the opportunity to purchase emissions credits (offsets) from a market trading scheme or seek to reduce their emissions through different measures. Some measures may include investment in new technologies that will reduce their reliance on GHG emitting practices. In many countries, large organizations and institutions generate their own power to operate their facilities. Much of this power is generated (or bought) from GHG producing technology. Specific renewable energy sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic technology may become more feasible alternatives available to a large percentage of these organizations if they are able to take advantage and incorporate the market for GHG emissions trading in their analyses. To help organizations evaluate investment in these renewable energy technologies we introduce a real options based model that will take into consideration uncertainties associated with the technology and those associated with the GHG trading market. The real options analysis will consider both the stochastic (uncertainty) nature of the exercise price of the technology and the stochastic nature of the market trading price of the GHG emissions.

Impact of the hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes of the land surface model Noah-MP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Samaniego, Luis; Clark, Martyn; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Attinger, Sabine; Thober, Stephan

2016-04-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of processes, described by physical, chemical and empirical equations. The process descriptions contain a number of parameters that can be soil or plant type dependent and are typically read from tabulated input files. Land surface models may have, however, process descriptions that contain fixed, hard-coded numbers in the computer code, which are not identified as model parameters. Here we searched for hard-coded parameters in the computer code of the land surface model Noah with multiple process options (Noah-MP) to assess the importance of the fixed values on restricting the model's agility during parameter estimation. We found 139 hard-coded values in all Noah-MP process options, which are mostly spatially constant values. This is in addition to the 71 standard parameters of Noah-MP, which mostly get distributed spatially by given vegetation and soil input maps. We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis of Noah-MP to variations of the standard and hard-coded parameters for a specific set of process options. 42 standard parameters and 75 hard-coded parameters were active with the chosen process options. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff as well as their component fluxes were evaluated. These sensitivities were evaluated at twelve catchments of the Eastern United States with very different hydro-meteorological regimes. Noah-MP's hydrologic output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its standard parameters. The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded parameters of the snow processes and the meteorological inputs. These parameter sensitivities diminish in total runoff. Assessing these parameters in model calibration would require detailed snow observations or the calculation of hydrologic signatures of the runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff exhibit very similar sensitivities towards standard and hard-coded parameters in Noah-MP because of their tight coupling via the water balance. It should therefore be comparable to calibrate Noah-MP either against latent heat observations or against river runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff are sensitive to both, plant and soil parameters. Calibrating only a parameter sub-set of only soil parameters, for example, thus limits the ability to derive realistic model parameters. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

Load leveling on industrial refrigeration systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierenbaum, H. S.; Kraus, A. D.

1982-01-01

A computer model was constructed of a brewery with a 2000 horsepower compressor/refrigeration system. The various conservation and load management options were simulated using the validated model. The savings available for implementing the most promising options were verified by trials in the brewery. Result show that an optimized methodology for implementing load leveling and energy conservation consisted of: (1) adjusting (or tuning) refrigeration systems controller variables to minimize unnecessary compressor starts, (2) The primary refrigeration system operating parameters, compressor suction pressure, and discharge pressure are carefully controlled (modulated) to satisfy product quality constraints (as well as in-process material cooling rates and temperature levels) and energy evaluating the energy cost savings associated with reject heat recovery, and (4) a decision is made to implement the reject heat recovery system based on a cost/benefits analysis.

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

Mathematical Modeling to Reduce Waste of Compounded Sterile Products in Hospital Pharmacies

PubMed Central

Dobson, Gregory; Haas, Curtis E.; Tilson, David

2014-01-01

Abstract In recent years, many US hospitals embarked on “lean” projects to reduce waste. One advantage of the lean operational improvement methodology is that it relies on process observation by those engaged in the work and requires relatively little data. However, the thoughtful analysis of the data captured by operational systems allows the modeling of many potential process options. Such models permit the evaluation of likely waste reductions and financial savings before actual process changes are made. Thus the most promising options can be identified prospectively, change efforts targeted accordingly, and realistic targets set. This article provides one example of such a datadriven process redesign project focusing on waste reduction in an in-hospital pharmacy. A mathematical model of the medication prepared and delivered by the pharmacy is used to estimate the savings from several potential redesign options (rescheduling the start of production, scheduling multiple batches, or reordering production within a batch) as well as the impact of information system enhancements. The key finding is that mathematical modeling can indeed be a useful tool. In one hospital setting, it estimated that waste could be realistically reduced by around 50% by using several process changes and that the greatest benefit would be gained by rescheduling the start of production (for a single batch) away from the period when most order cancellations are made. PMID:25477580

Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation of a Distribution System with Air Conditioners under Model Predictive Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sparn, Bethany F; Ruth, Mark F; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak

Many have proposed that responsive load provided by distributed energy resources (DERs) and demand response (DR) are an option to provide flexibility to the grid and especially to distribution feeders. However, because responsive load involves a complex interplay between tariffs and DER and DR technologies, it is challenging to test and evaluate options without negatively impacting customers. This paper describes a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system that has been developed to reduce the cost of evaluating the impact of advanced controllers (e.g., model predictive controllers) and technologies (e.g., responsive appliances). The HIL simulation system combines large-scale software simulation with a smallmore » set of representative building equipment hardware. It is used to perform HIL simulation of a distribution feeder and the loads on it under various tariff structures. In the reported HIL simulation, loads include many simulated air conditioners and one physical air conditioner. Independent model predictive controllers manage operations of all air conditioners under a time-of-use tariff. Results from this HIL simulation and a discussion of future development work of the system are presented.« less

A proposed model for economic evaluations of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Karnon, Jonathan; Gray, Jodi

2012-08-01

In countries like UK and Australia, the comparability of model-based analyses is an essential aspect of reimbursement decisions for new pharmaceuticals, medical services and technologies. Within disease areas, the use of models with alternative structures, type of modelling techniques and/or data sources for common parameters reduces the comparability of evaluations of alternative technologies for the same condition. The aim of this paper is to propose a decision analytic model to evaluate long-term costs and benefits of alternative management options in patients with depression. The structure of the proposed model is based on the natural history of depression and includes clinical events that are important from both clinical and economic perspectives. Considering its greater flexibility with respect to handling time, discrete event simulation (DES) is an appropriate simulation platform for modelling studies of depression. We argue that the proposed model can be used as a reference model in model-based studies of depression improving the quality and comparability of studies.

Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-09-01

This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Factors Associated with Evaluation of Contraception Options among University Undergraduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Robert J.; Malo, Teri L.; Dodd, Virginia J.; Mayer, Alyssa B.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine attributes assigned by university undergraduates to 12 contraception options, determine if dimensions used to evaluate options differed for women and men, and assess whether these dimensions have changed over time. This study was cross-sectional and involved a written survey. The sample (N = 792) was…

BIOMASS REBURNING - MODELING/ENGINEERING STUDIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vladimir Zamansky; Chris Lindsey

This project is designed to develop engineering and modeling tools for a family of NO{sub x}control technologies utilizing biomass as a reburning fuel. During the eighth reporting period (July 1--September 26, 1999), Antares Group Inc, under contract to Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation, evaluated the economic feasibility of biomass reburning options for Dunkirk Station. This report includes summary of the findings; complete information will be submitted in the next Quarterly Report.

Evaluation of five guidelines for option development in multiple-choice item-writing.

PubMed

Martínez, Rafael J; Moreno, Rafael; Martín, Irene; Trigo, M Eva

2009-05-01

This paper evaluates certain guidelines for writing multiple-choice test items. The analysis of the responses of 5013 subjects to 630 items from 21 university classroom achievement tests suggests that an option should not differ in terms of heterogeneous content because such error has a slight but harmful effect on item discrimination. This also occurs with the "None of the above" option when it is the correct one. In contrast, results do not show the supposedly negative effects of a different-length option, the use of specific determiners, or the use of the "All of the above" option, which not only decreases difficulty but also improves discrimination when it is the correct option.

Numerical predictions of hemodynamics following surgeries in cerebral aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayz, Vitaliy; Lawton, Michael; Boussel, Loic; Leach, Joseph; Acevedo, Gabriel; Halbach, Van; Saloner, David

2014-11-01

Large cerebral aneurysms present a danger of rupture or brain compression. In some cases, clinicians may attempt to change the pathological hemodynamics in order to inhibit disease progression. This can be achieved by changing the vascular geometry with an open surgery or by deploying a stent-like flow diverter device. Patient-specific CFD models can help evaluate treatment options by predicting flow regions that are likely to become occupied by thrombus (clot) following the procedure. In this study, alternative flow scenarios were modeled for several patients who underwent surgical treatment. Patient-specific geometries and flow boundary conditions were obtained from magnetic resonance angiography and velocimetry data. The Navier-Stokes equations were solved with a finite volume solver Fluent. A porous media approach was used to model flow-diverter devices. The advection-diffusion equation was solved in order to simulate contrast agent transport and the results were used to evaluate flow residence time changes. Thrombus layering was predicted in regions characterized by reduced velocities and shear stresses as well as increased flow residence time. The simulations indicated surgical options that could result in occlusion of vital arteries with thrombus. Numerical results were compared to experimental and clinical MRI data. The results demonstrate that image-based CFD models may help improve the outcome of surgeries in cerebral aneurysms. acknowledge R01HL115267.

Arcjet Tests of Different Gap-Filler Options for the Orion PICA Heatshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skokova, Kristina; Ellerby, Donald; Blosser, Max; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Bouslog, Stan; Reuther, James

2009-01-01

PICA (Phenolic Infiltrated Carbon Ablator) is one of the candidate thermal protection materials for the Orion vehicle. Because PICA is fabricated in blocks, gaps exist between the blocks, similar to the individual ceramic tiles of the Shuttle thermal protection system. The results of this work focus on arcjet test results of different gap-filler options for PICA, performed as part of the Orion TPS Advanced Development Project. The arcjet tests were performed at NASA Ames Research Center on stagnation models 4 inches in diameter at conditions representative of Orion flight conditions for both Lunar and Low Earth Orbit return. Performance of gap-filler options was evaluated based on the extent of backface temperature change, as compared to PICA without gaps, and on the extent of flow penetration into the gap, evident from the gap opening and widening.

Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents an innovative approach for replacement planning for aging water infrastructure given uncertain future conditions. We draw upon two existing methodologies to develop an integrated long-term replacement planning framework. We first expand the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to generate long-term planning timelines that incorporate drivers of investment related to both internal structural processes as well as changes in external operating conditions. Then, we use Engineering Options to explore different actions taken at key moments in this timeline. Contrasting to the traditionally more static approach to infrastructure design, designing the next generation of infrastructure so it can be changed incrementally is a promising method to safeguard current investments given future uncertainty. This up-front inclusion of structural options in the system actively facilitates future adaptation, transforming uncertainty management in infrastructure planning from reactive to more proactive. A two-part model underpins this approach. A simulation model generates diverse future conditions, allowing development of timelines of intervention moments in the structure's life. This feeds into an economic model, evaluating the lifetime performance of different replacement strategies, making explicit the value of different designs and their flexibility. A proof of concept study demonstrates this approach for a pumping station. The strategic planning timelines for this structure demonstrate that moments when capital interventions become necessary due to reduced functionality from structural degradation or changed operating conditions are widely spread over the structure's life. The disparate timing of these necessary interventions supports an incremental, adaptive mindset when considering end-of-life and replacement decisions. The analysis then explores different replacement decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the proposed new structure. Results show that incremental adaptive designs and incorporating options can improve economic performance, as compared to traditional, "build it once & build it big" designs. The benefit from incorporating flexibility varies with structural functionality, future conditions and the specific options examined.

Analysis and Evaluation of Processes and Equipment in Tasks 2 and 4 of the Low-cost Solar Array Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, M.

1979-01-01

To facilitate the task of objectively comparing competing process options, a methodology was needed for the quantitative evaluation of their relative cost effectiveness. Such a methodology was developed and is described, together with three examples for its application. The criterion for the evaluation is the cost of the energy produced by the system. The method permits the evaluation of competing design options for subsystems, based on the differences in cost and efficiency of the subsystems, assuming comparable reliability and service life, or of competing manufacturing process options for such subsystems, which include solar cells or modules. This process option analysis is based on differences in cost, yield, and conversion efficiency contribution of the process steps considered.

Methodological considerations for economic modelling of latent tuberculous infection screening in migrants.

PubMed

Shedrawy, J; Siroka, A; Oxlade, O; Matteelli, A; Lönnroth, K

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants from endemic to low-incidence countries results mainly from the reactivation of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). LTBI screening policies for migrants vary greatly between countries, and the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the different approaches is weak and heterogeneous. The aim of this review was to assess the methodology used in published economic evaluations of LTBI screening among migrants to identify critical methodological options that must be considered when using modelling to determine value for money from different economic perspectives. Three electronic databases were searched and 10 articles were included. There was considerable variation across this small number of studies with regard to economic perspective, main outcomes, modelling technique, screening options and target populations considered, as well as in parameterisation of the epidemiological situation, test accuracy, efficacy, safety and programme performance. Only one study adopted a societal perspective; others adopted a health care or wider government perspective. Parameters representing the cascade of screening and treating LTBI varied widely, with some studies using highly aspirational scenarios. This review emphasises the need for a more harmonised approach for economic analysis, and better transparency in how policy options and economic perspectives influence methodological choices. Variability is justifiable for some parameters. However, sufficient data are available to standardise others. A societal perspective is ideal, but can be challenging due to limited data. Assumptions about programme performance should be based on empirical data or at least realistic assumptions. Results should be interpreted within specific contexts and policy options, with cautious generalisations.

Histopathological effects of intranasal phototherapy and nasal corticosteroids in allergic rhinitis in a rabbit model.

PubMed

Yurttas, Veysel; Şereflican, Murat; Erkoçoğlu, Mustafa; Terzi, Elçin Hakan; Kükner, Aysel; Oral, Mesut

2015-08-01

Allergic rhinitis is one of the most common health problems and has a major effect on quality of life. Although new-generation antihistamines and nasal steroids are the main treatment options, complete resolution cannot be obtained in some patients. Besides common side effects such as nasal irritation and epistaxis, the use of these drugs is controversial in some patients, such as pregnant or breastfeeding women. These findings highlight the need for new treatment options. Although phototherapy has been successfully used in the treatment of atopic dermatitis, which is an IgE-mediated disease and shares several common pathogenic features with allergic rhinitis, there are limited studies about its role in the treatment of allergic rhinitis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare the histopathological effects of intranasal phototherapy (Rhinolight) and nasal corticosteroid treatment on the nasal mucosa in allergic rhinitis in a rabbit model and we found that both treatment options significantly reduced inflammation in the nasal mucosa without increasing apoptosis of mucosal cells. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

System Advisor Model, SAM 2011.12.2: General Description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilman, P.; Dobos, A.

2012-02-01

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2011.12.2, released on December 2, 2011. SAM is software that models the cost and performance of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financing structures for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail ratesmore » (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). Advanced analysis options facilitate parametric, sensitivity, and statistical analyses, and allow for interfacing SAM with Microsoft Excel or with other computer programs. SAM is available as a free download at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.« less

The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

PubMed

Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

PubMed Central

Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

Modelling the impacts of agricultural management practices on river water quality in Eastern England.

PubMed

Taylor, Sam D; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin M

2016-09-15

Agricultural diffuse water pollution remains a notable global pressure on water quality, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems, human health and water resources and as a result legislation has been introduced in many parts of the world to protect water bodies. Due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness, water quality models have been increasingly applied to catchments as Decision Support Tools (DSTs) to identify mitigation options that can be introduced to reduce agricultural diffuse water pollution and improve water quality. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the River Wensum catchment in eastern England with the aim of quantifying the long-term impacts of potential changes to agricultural management practices on river water quality. Calibration and validation were successfully performed at a daily time-step against observations of discharge, nitrate and total phosphorus obtained from high-frequency water quality monitoring within the Blackwater sub-catchment, covering an area of 19.6 km(2). A variety of mitigation options were identified and modelled, both singly and in combination, and their long-term effects on nitrate and total phosphorus losses were quantified together with the 95% uncertainty range of model predictions. Results showed that introducing a red clover cover crop to the crop rotation scheme applied within the catchment reduced nitrate losses by 19.6%. Buffer strips of 2 m and 6 m width represented the most effective options to reduce total phosphorus losses, achieving reductions of 12.2% and 16.9%, respectively. This is one of the first studies to quantify the impacts of agricultural mitigation options on long-term water quality for nitrate and total phosphorus at a daily resolution, in addition to providing an estimate of the uncertainties of those impacts. The results highlighted the need to consider multiple pollutants, the degree of uncertainty associated with model predictions and the risk of unintended pollutant impacts when evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options, and showed that high-frequency water quality datasets can be applied to robustly calibrate water quality models, creating DSTs that are more effective and reliable. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Geo-Engineering through Internet Informatics (GEMINI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W. Lynn; Doveton, John H.; Victorine, John R.

GEMINI will resolve reservoir parameters that control well performance; characterize subtle reservoir properties important in understanding and modeling hydrocarbon pore volume and fluid flow; expedite recognition of bypassed, subtle, and complex oil and gas reservoirs at regional and local scale; differentiate commingled reservoirs; build integrated geologic and engineering model based on real-time, iterate solutions to evaluate reservoir management options for improved recovery; provide practical tools to assist the geoscientist, engineer, and petroleum operator in making their tasks more efficient and effective; enable evaluations to be made at different scales, ranging from individual well, through lease, field, to play and regionmore » (scalable information infrastructure); and provide training and technology transfer to evaluate capabilities of the client.« less

Interest Rates and Coupon Bonds in Quantum Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.

2009-09-01

1. Synopsis; 2. Interest rates and coupon bonds; 3. Options and option theory; 4. Interest rate and coupon bond options; 5. Quantum field theory of bond forward interest rates; 6. Libor Market Model of interest rates; 7. Empirical analysis of forward interest rates; 8. Libor Market Model of interest rate options; 9. Numeraires for bond forward interest rates; 10. Empirical analysis of interest rate caps; 11. Coupon bond European and Asian options; 12. Empirical analysis of interest rate swaptions; 13. Correlation of coupon bond options; 14. Hedging interest rate options; 15. Interest rate Hamiltonian and option theory; 16. American options for coupon bonds and interest rates; 17. Hamiltonian derivation of coupon bond options; Appendixes; Glossaries; List of symbols; Reference; Index.

Multi-attribute criteria applied to electric generation energy system analysis LDRD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuswa, Glenn W.; Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Drennen, Thomas E.

2005-10-01

This report began with a Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve Sandia National Laboratories multidisciplinary capabilities in energy systems analysis. The aim is to understand how various electricity generating options can best serve needs in the United States. The initial product is documented in a series of white papers that span a broad range of topics, including the successes and failures of past modeling studies, sustainability, oil dependence, energy security, and nuclear power. Summaries of these projects are included here. These projects have provided a background and discussion framework for the Energy Systems Analysis LDRD team to carrymore » out an inter-comparison of many of the commonly available electric power sources in present use, comparisons of those options, and efforts needed to realize progress towards those options. A computer aid has been developed to compare various options based on cost and other attributes such as technological, social, and policy constraints. The Energy Systems Analysis team has developed a multi-criteria framework that will allow comparison of energy options with a set of metrics that can be used across all technologies. This report discusses several evaluation techniques and introduces the set of criteria developed for this LDRD.« less

Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-30

of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the...Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 407, 350–359. W. Schachermayer (2010) Fundamental theorem of asset pricing, Encyclopedia of Quanti - tative

Development and Evaluation of a Percutaneous Technique for Repairing Proximal Femora With Metastatic Lesions

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

bedridden , who are wheel-chair bound, or who have short life expectancies). Key Research Accomplishments • 27 FE models were created and analyzed...minimally invasive procedure is a viable option for, at a minimum, situations with low cyclic loading, such as for patients who are bedridden , who are wheel

Production and Optimization of Direct Coal Liquefaction derived Low Carbon-Footprint Transportation Fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steven Markovich

This report summarizes works conducted under DOE Contract No. DE-FC26-05NT42448. The work scope was divided into two categories - (a) experimental program to pretreat and refine a coal derived syncrude sample to meet transportation fuels requirements; (b) system analysis of a commercial scale direct coal liquefaction facility. The coal syncrude was derived from a bituminous coal by Headwaters CTL, while the refining study was carried out under a subcontract to Axens North America. The system analysis included H{sub 2} production cost via six different options, conceptual process design, utilities requirements, CO{sub 2} emission and overall plant economy. As part ofmore » the system analysis, impact of various H{sub 2} production options was evaluated. For consistence the comparison was carried out using the DOE H2A model. However, assumptions in the model were updated using Headwaters database. Results of Tier 2 jet fuel specifications evaluation by the Fuels & Energy Branch, US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/RZPF) located at Wright Patterson Air Force Base (Ohio) are also discussed in this report.« less

Evaluating ecosystem-based management options: Effects of trawling in Torres Strait, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Nick; Pantus, Francis; Welna, Andrzej; Butler, Alan

2008-09-01

A suite of management options for a prawn trawl fishery in Torres Strait, Australia was assessed for impacts on the benthic fauna using a dynamic management strategy evaluation approach. The specification of the management options was gained through consultation with stakeholders. Data for the model was drawn from several sources: the fleet data from fishery logbooks and satellite vessel monitoring systems, benthic depletion rates from trawl-down experiments, benthic recovery rates from post-experiment recovery monitoring studies, and benthic distribution from large-scale benthic surveys. Although there were large uncertainties in the resulting indicators, robust measures relevant to management were obtained by taking ratios relative to the status quo. The management control with the biggest effect was total effort; reducing trawl effort always led to increases in benthic faunal density of up to 10%. Spatial closures had a smaller benefit of up to 2%. The effect of closing a set of buffer zones around reefs to trawling was indistinguishable from the status quo option. Closing a larger area, however, was largely beneficial especially for sea cucumbers. When the spatial distributions of fauna prior to fishing were accounted for, fauna with distributions positively correlated with effort improved relative to those negatively correlated. The reduction in prawn catch under effort reduction scenarios could be ameliorated by introducing temporal closures over the full-moon period.

Developing a Hierarchical Decision Model to Evaluate Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Siting Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingga, Marwan Mossa

A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings. The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology. This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy. The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.

Developing a climate adaptation strategy for vulnerable seabirds based on prioritisation of intervention options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alderman, Rachael; Hobday, Alistair J.

2017-06-01

Conservation of marine species typically focuses on monitoring and mitigating demonstrated stressors where possible. Evidence is accumulating that some species will be negatively affected in the future by climate change and that reduction of existing stressors may not be sufficient to offset these impacts. Recent work suggests the shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) will be adversely affected by projected changes in environmental conditions under plausible climate change scenarios. Furthermore, modelling shows that elimination of the principal present-day threat to albatrosses, fisheries bycatch, an achievable and critical priority, may not be sufficient to reverse projected population declines due to climate impacts, which cannot be directly eliminated. Here, a case study is presented in which a range of intervention options, in preparation for predicted climate change impacts, are identified and evaluated. A suite of 24 plausible climate adaptation options is first assessed using a semi-quantitative cost-benefit-risk tool, leading to a relative ranking of actions. Of these options, increasing chick survival via reduction of disease prevalence through control of vectors, was selected for field trials. Avian insecticide was applied to chicks' mid-way through their development and the effect on subsequent survival was evaluated. Survival of treated chicks after six weeks was significantly higher (92.7%) than those in control areas (82.1%). This approach shows that options to enhance albatross populations exist and we argue that testing interventions prior to serious impacts can formalise institutional processes and allow refinement of actions that offer some chance of mitigating the impacts of climate change on iconic marine species.

User's manual for a parameter identification technique. [with options for model simulation for fixed input forcing functions and identification from wind tunnel and flight measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanning, G.

1975-01-01

A digital computer program written in FORTRAN is presented that implements the system identification theory for deterministic systems using input-output measurements. The user supplies programs simulating the mathematical model of the physical plant whose parameters are to be identified. The user may choose any one of three options. The first option allows for a complete model simulation for fixed input forcing functions. The second option identifies up to 36 parameters of the model from wind tunnel or flight measurements. The third option performs a sensitivity analysis for up to 36 parameters. The use of each option is illustrated with an example using input-output measurements for a helicopter rotor tested in a wind tunnel.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

Scheduling Algorithm for Mission Planning and Logistics Evaluation (SAMPLE). Volume 3: The GREEDY algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupnick, E.; Wiggins, D.

1980-01-01

The functional specifications, functional design and flow, and the program logic of the GREEDY computer program are described. The GREEDY program is a submodule of the Scheduling Algorithm for Mission Planning and Logistics Evaluation (SAMPLE) program and has been designed as a continuation of the shuttle Mission Payloads (MPLS) program. The MPLS uses input payload data to form a set of feasible payload combinations; from these, GREEDY selects a subset of combinations (a traffic model) so all payloads can be included without redundancy. The program also provides the user a tutorial option so that he can choose an alternate traffic model in case a particular traffic model is unacceptable.

AERMOD performance evaluation for three coal-fired electrical generating units in Southwest Indiana.

PubMed

Frost, Kali D

2014-03-01

An evaluation of the steady-state dispersion model AERMOD was conducted to determine its accuracy at predicting hourly ground-level concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) by comparing model-predicted concentrations to a full year of monitored SO2 data. The two study sites are comprised of three coal-fired electrical generating units (EGUs) located in southwest Indiana. The sites are characterized by tall, buoyant stacks,flat terrain, multiple SO2 monitors, and relatively isolated locations. AERMOD v12060 and AERMOD v12345 with BETA options were evaluated at each study site. For the six monitor-receptor pairs evaluated, AERMOD showed generally good agreement with monitor values for the hourly 99th percentile SO2 design value, with design value ratios that ranged from 0.92 to 1.99. AERMOD was within acceptable performance limits for the Robust Highest Concentration (RHC) statistic (RHC ratios ranged from 0.54 to 1.71) at all six monitors. Analysis of the top 5% of hourly concentrations at the six monitor-receptor sites, paired in time and space, indicated poor model performance in the upper concentration range. The amount of hourly model predicted data that was within a factor of 2 of observations at these higher concentrations ranged from 14 to 43% over the six sites. Analysis of subsets of data showed consistent overprediction during low wind speed and unstable meteorological conditions, and underprediction during stable, low wind conditions. Hourly paired comparisons represent a stringent measure of model performance; however given the potential for application of hourly model predictions to the SO2 NAAQS design value, this may be appropriate. At these two sites, AERMOD v12345 BETA options do not improve model performance. A regulatory evaluation of AERMOD utilizing quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots, the RHC statistic, and 99th percentile design value concentrations indicates that model performance is acceptable according to widely accepted regulatory performance limits. However, a scientific evaluation examining hourly paired monitor and model values at concentrations of interest indicates overprediction and underprediction bias that is outside of acceptable model performance measures. Overprediction of 1-hr SO2 concentrations by AERMOD presents major ramifications for state and local permitting authorities when establishing emission limits.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in Malawi: Mathematical modelling study

PubMed Central

Tweya, Hannock; Keiser, Olivia; Haas, Andreas D.; Tenthani, Lyson; Phiri, Sam; Egger, Matthias; Estill, Janne

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women (‘Option B+’) compared to ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated (‘Option B’). Design Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. Methods Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10,000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterised the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of ante-natal and post-natal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. Results During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared to 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. Conclusion Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account. PMID:26691682

United States transportation fuel economics (1975 - 1995)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1975-01-01

The United States transportation fuel economics in terms of fuel resources options, processing alternatives, and attendant economics for the period 1975 to 1995 are evaluated. The U.S. energy resource base is reviewed, portable fuel-processing alternatives are assessed, and selected future aircraft fuel options - JP fuel, liquid methane, and liquid hydrogen - are evaluated economically. Primary emphasis is placed on evaluating future aircraft fuel options and economics to provide guidance for future strategy of NASA in the development of aviation and air transportation research and technology.

Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.

Measuring cognition in teams: a cross-domain review.

PubMed

Wildman, Jessica L; Salas, Eduardo; Scott, Charles P R

2014-08-01

The purpose of this article is twofold: to provide a critical cross-domain evaluation of team cognition measurement options and to provide novice researchers with practical guidance when selecting a measurement method. A vast selection of measurement approaches exist for measuring team cognition constructs including team mental models, transactive memory systems, team situation awareness, strategic consensus, and cognitive processes. Empirical studies and theoretical articles were reviewed to identify all of the existing approaches for measuring team cognition. These approaches were evaluated based on theoretical perspective assumed, constructs studied, resources required, level of obtrusiveness, internal consistency reliability, and predictive validity. The evaluations suggest that all existing methods are viable options from the point of view of reliability and validity, and that there are potential opportunities for cross-domain use. For example, methods traditionally used only to measure mental models may be useful for examining transactive memory and situation awareness. The selection of team cognition measures requires researchers to answer several key questions regarding the theoretical nature of team cognition and the practical feasibility of each method. We provide novice researchers with guidance regarding how to begin the search for a team cognition measure and suggest several new ideas regarding future measurement research. We provide (1) a broad overview and evaluation of existing team cognition measurement methods, (2) suggestions for new uses of those methods across research domains, and (3) critical guidance for novice researchers looking to measure team cognition.

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: a policy effectiveness–feasibility loop

PubMed Central

Bowman, Sarah; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Husseini, Abdullatif; Maziak, Wasim; Zaman, Shahaduz; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Fouad, Fouad; Phillimore, Peter; Unal, Belgin; Khatib, Rana; Shoaibi, Azza; Ahmad, Balsam

2012-01-01

Abstract Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a “policy effectiveness–feasibility loop” (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach. PMID:23226897

Preference Reversals Between Joint and Separate Evaluations With Multiple Alternatives and Context Effects.

PubMed

Cheng, Yin-Hui; Yu, Annie P; Huang, Molly Chien-Jung; Dai, Chia-Jung

2017-01-01

Most research on preference reversal (PR) focuses on the evaluability hypothesis with one or two alternatives. However, people normally encounter more than two options in daily life. In this research, a third option was added to the PR effect choice sets in the traditional joint-separate evaluations mode to create a context effect. Three studies were conducted. Studies 1 and 2 showed that adding a third option to the choice sets changed the PR effect; either the attributes were both important or one was important and the other was not. Study 3 showed that the PR effect reappeared when a third option was added to the choice sets that had no PR effect with just two attributes that were difficult to evaluate independently in traditional evaluations modes. The three studies confirmed that preferences changed in multi-alternative evaluation modes, contradicting Hsee's (1996) work and showing that the context effect is stronger than that of the attribute's importance in the PR effect.

A Cost-Utility and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Different Oral Antiviral Medications in Patients With HBeAg-Negative Chronic Hepatitis B in Iran: An Economic Microsimulation Decision Model.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Khosro; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Akbari Sari, Ali; Rezaei Hemami, Mohsen; Lotfi, Farhad; Hashemi Meshkini, Amir; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Keshvari, Maryam; Nikfar, Shekoufeh

2016-09-01

Although hepatitis B infection is the major cause of chronic liver disease in Iran, no studies have employed economic evaluations of the medications used to treat Iranian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of the different treatment options for this disease in Iran is unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the cost utility and cost-effectiveness of medication strategies tailored to local conditions in patients with HB e antigen (HBeAg)-negative CHB infection in Iran. An economic evaluation of the cost utility of the following five oral medication strategies was conducted: adefovir (ADV), lamivudine (LAM), ADV + LAM, entecavir (ETV), and tenofovir (TDF). A Markov microsimulation model was used to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes over the course of the patient's lifetime and based on a societal perspective. Medical and nonmedical direct costs and indirect costs were included in the study and life-years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were determined as measures of effectiveness. The results are presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY or LYG. The model consisted of nine stages of the disease. The transition probabilities for the movement between the different stages were based on clinical evidence and international expert opinion. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was used to measure the effects of uncertainty in the model parameters. The results revealed that the TDF treatment strategy was more effective and less costly than the other options. In addition, TDF had the highest QALY and LYG in the HBeAg-negative CHB patients, with 13.58 and 21.26 (discounted) in all comparisons. The PSA proved the robustness of the model results. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that TDF was the most cost-effective treatment in 59% - 78% of the simulations of HBeAg-negative patients, with WTP thresholds less than $14010 (maximum WTP per QALY). The use of TDF in patients with HBeAg-negative CHB seemed to be a highly cost-effective strategy. Compared with the other available medication options, TDF was the most cost-saving strategy. Thus, TDF may be the best option as a first-line medication. Patients can also be switched from other medications to TDF.

Evaluation of Production Cross Sections of Li, Be, B in CR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moskalenko, I. V.; Mashnik, S. G.

2003-01-01

Accurate evaluation of the production cross section of light elements is important for models of cosmic ray (CR) propagation, galactic chemical evolution, and cosmological studies. However, the experimental spallation cross section data are scarce and often unavailable to CR community while semi-empirical systematics are frequently wrong by a significant factor. Running sophisticated nuclear codes is not an option of choice for everyone either. We use the Los Alamos versions of the Quark-Gluon String Model code LAQGSM and the improved Cascade-Exciton Model code CEM2k together with all available data from Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory (LANL) nuclear database to produce evaluated production cross sections of isotopes of Li, Be, and B suitable for astrophysical applications. The LAQGSM and CEM2k models have been shown to reproduce well nuclear reactions and hadronic data in the range 0.01-800 GeV/nucleon.

Space Tug systems study (storable). Volume 3: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Space tug program options that consider key issues and mission requirements are assessed, component and subsystem candidates are evaluated, and tug configurations synthesized. Three tug program options are defined and evaluated.

Extended duration orbiter study: CO2 removal and water recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, R. D.; Ellis, G. S.; Schubert, F. H.; Wynveen, R. A.

1979-01-01

Two electrochemical depolarized carbon dioxide concentrator subsystems were evaluated against baseline lithium hydroxide for (1) the baseline orbiter when expanded to accommodate a crew of seven (mission option one), (2) an extended duration orbiter with a power extension package to reduce fuel cell expendables (mission option two), and (3) an extended duration orbiter with a full capability power module to eliminate fuel cell expendables (mission option three). The electrochemical depolarized carbon dioxide concentrator was also compared to the solid amine regenerable carbon dioxide removal concept. Water recovery is not required for Mission Option One since sufficient water is generated by the fuel cells. The vapor compression distillation subsystem was evaluated for mission option two and three only. Weight savings attainable using the vapor compression distillation subsystem for water recovery versus on-board water storage were determined. Combined carbon dioxide removal and water recovery was evaluated to determine the effect on regenerable carbon dioxide removal subsystem selection.

The results of a limited study of approaches to the design, fabrication, and testing of a dynamic model of the NASA IOC space station. Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, George W.

1985-01-01

The options for the design, construction, and testing of a dynamic model of the space station were evaluated. Since the definition of the space station structure is still evolving, the Initial Operating Capacity (IOC) reference configuration was used as the general guideline. The results of the studies treat: general considerations of the need for and use of a dynamic model; factors which deal with the model design and construction; and a proposed system for supporting the dynamic model in the planned Large Spacecraft Laboratory.

Using Random Forest to Improve the Downscaling of Global Livestock Census Data

PubMed Central

Nicolas, Gaëlle; Robinson, Timothy P.; Wint, G. R. William; Conchedda, Giulia; Cinardi, Giuseppina; Gilbert, Marius

2016-01-01

Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, which has been extensively used since its first publication in 2007. The database relies on a downscaling methodology whereby census counts of animals in sub-national administrative units are redistributed at the level of grid cells as a function of a series of spatial covariates. The recent upgrade of GLW1 to GLW2 involved automating the processing, improvement of input data, and downscaling at a spatial resolution of 1 km per cell (5 km per cell in the earlier version). The underlying statistical methodology, however, remained unchanged. In this paper, we evaluate new methods to downscale census data with a higher accuracy and increased processing efficiency. Two main factors were evaluated, based on sample census datasets of cattle in Africa and chickens in Asia. First, we implemented and evaluated Random Forest models (RF) instead of stratified regressions. Second, we investigated whether models that predicted the number of animals per rural person (per capita) could provide better downscaled estimates than the previous approach that predicted absolute densities (animals per km2). RF models consistently provided better predictions than the stratified regressions for both continents and species. The benefit of per capita over absolute density models varied according to the species and continent. In addition, different technical options were evaluated to reduce the processing time while maintaining their predictive power. Future GLW runs (GLW 3.0) will apply the new RF methodology with optimized modelling options. The potential benefit of per capita models will need to be further investigated with a better distinction between rural and agricultural populations. PMID:26977807

Clinical Pathways and the Patient Perspective in the Pursuit of Value-Based Oncology Care.

PubMed

Ersek, Jennifer L; Nadler, Eric; Freeman-Daily, Janet; Mazharuddin, Samir; Kim, Edward S

2017-01-01

The art of practicing oncology has evolved substantially in the past 5 years. As more and more diagnostic tests, biomarker-directed therapies, and immunotherapies make their way to the oncology marketplace, oncologists will find it increasingly difficult to keep up with the many therapeutic options. Additionally, the cost of cancer care seems to be increasing. Clinical pathways are a systematic way to organize and display detailed, evidence-based treatment options and assist the practitioner with best practice. When selecting which treatment regimens to include on a clinical pathway, considerations must include the efficacy and safety, as well as costs, of the therapy. Pathway treatment regimens must be continually assessed and modified to ensure that the most up-to-date, high-quality options are incorporated. Value-based models, such as the ASCO Value Framework, can assist providers in presenting economic evaluations of clinical pathway treatment options to patients, thus allowing the patient to decide the overall value of each treatment regimen. Although oncologists and pathway developers can decide which treatment regimens to include on a clinical pathway based on the efficacy of the treatment, assessment of the value of that treatment regimen ultimately lies with the patient. Patient definitions of value will be an important component to enhancing current value-based oncology care models and incorporating new, high-quality, value-based therapeutics into oncology clinical pathways.

Technoeconomic Optimization of Waste Heat Driven Forward Osmosis for Flue Gas Desulfurization Wastewater Treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gingerich, Daniel B; Bartholomew, Timothy V; Mauter, Meagan S

With the Environmental Protection Agency’s recent Effluent Limitation Guidelines for Steam Electric Generators, power plants are having to install and operate new wastewater technologies. Many plants are evaluating desalination technologies as possible compliance options. However, the desalination technologies under review that can reduce wastewater volume or treat to a zero-liquid discharges standard have a significant energy penalty to the plant. Waste heat, available from the exhaust gas or cooling water from coal-fired power plants, offers an opportunity to drive wastewater treatment using thermal desalination technologies. One such technology is forward osmosis (FO). Forward osmosis utilizes an osmotic pressure gradient tomore » passively pull water from a saline or wastewater stream across a semi-permeable membrane and into a more concentrated draw solution. This diluted draw solution is then fed into a distillation column, where the addition of low temperature waste heat can drive the separation to produce a reconcentrated draw solution and treated water for internal plant reuse. The use of low-temperature waste heat decouples water treatment from electricity production and eliminates the link between reducing water pollution and increasing air emissions from auxiliary electricity generation. In order to evaluate the feasibility of waste heat driven FO, we first build a model of an FO system for flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater treatment at coal-fired power plants. This model includes the FO membrane module, the distillation column for draw solution recovery, and waste heat recovery from the exhaust gas. We then add a costing model to account for capital and operating costs of the forward osmosis system. We use this techno-economic model to optimize waste heat driven FO for the treatment of FGD wastewater. We apply this model to three case studies: the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) 550 MW model coal fired power plant without carbon capture and sequestration, the NETL 550 MW model coal fired power plant with carbon capture and sequestration, and Plant Bowen in Eularhee, Georgia. For each case, we identify the design that minimizes the cost of wastewater treatment given the safely recoverable waste heat. We benchmark the cost minimum waste-heat forward osmosis solutions to two conventional options that rely on electricity, reverse osmosis and mechanical vapor recompression. Furthermore, we quantify the environmental damages from the emissions of carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutants for each treatment option. With this information we can assess the trade-offs between treatment costs, energy consumption, and air emissions between the treatment options.« less

Factors associated with retention in Option B+ in Malawi: a case control study.

PubMed

Hoffman, Risa M; Phiri, Khumbo; Parent, Julie; Grotts, Jonathan; Elashoff, David; Kawale, Paul; Yeatman, Sara; Currier, Judith S; Schooley, Alan

2017-04-27

There are limited data on factors associated with retention in Option B+. We sought to explore the characteristics of women retained in Option B+ in Malawi, with a focus on the role of HIV disclosure, awareness of partner HIV status, and knowledge around the importance of Option B+ for maternal-child health. Methods We performed a case-control study of HIV-infected women in Malawi initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) under Option B+. Cases were enrolled if they met criteria for default from Option B+ (out of ART for >60 days), and controls were enrolled in approximately 3:1 ratio if they were retained in care for at least 12 months. We surveyed socio-demographic characteristics, HIV disclosure and awareness of partner HIV status, self-report about receiving pre-ART education, and knowledge of Option B+. Univariate logistic regression was performed to determine factors associated with retention. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between HIV disclosure, Option B+ knowledge, and retention after adjusting for age, schooling, and travel time to clinic. We enrolled 50 cases and 153 controls. Median age was 30 years (interquartile range (IQR) 25-34), and the majority (82%) initiated ART during pregnancy at a median gestational age of 24 weeks (IQR 16-28). Ninety-one per cent of the cases (39/43) who started ART during pregnancy defaulted by three months postpartum. HIV disclosure to the primary sex partner was more common among women retained in care (100% versus 78%, p  < 0.001). Odds of retention were significantly higher among women with: age >25 years (odds ratio (OR) 2.44), completion of primary school (OR 3.06), awareness of partner HIV status (OR 5.20), pre-ART education (OR 6.17), higher number of correct answers to Option B+ knowledge questions (OR 1.82), and support while taking ART (OR 3.65). Pre-ART education and knowledge were significantly correlated ( r  = 0.43, p  < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, awareness of partner HIV status (OR 4.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-10.94, p  = 0.02) and Option B+ knowledge (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.15-2.23, p  = 0.004) remained associated with retention. Interventions that address partner disclosure and strengthen pre-ART education around the benefits of ART for maternal and child health should be evaluated to improve retention in Malawi's Option B+ programme.

Factors associated with retention in Option B+ in Malawi: a case control study

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Risa M; Phiri, Khumbo; Parent, Julie; Grotts, Jonathan; Elashoff, David; Kawale, Paul; Yeatman, Sara; Currier, Judith S; Schooley, Alan

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: There are limited data on factors associated with retention in Option B+. We sought to explore the characteristics of women retained in Option B+ in Malawi, with a focus on the role of HIV disclosure, awareness of partner HIV status, and knowledge around the importance of Option B+ for maternal–child health. Methods: We performed a case-control study of HIV-infected women in Malawi initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) under Option B+. Cases were enrolled if they met criteria for default from Option B+ (out of ART for >60 days), and controls were enrolled in approximately 3:1 ratio if they were retained in care for at least 12 months. We surveyed socio-demographic characteristics, HIV disclosure and awareness of partner HIV status, self-report about receiving pre-ART education, and knowledge of Option B+. Univariate logistic regression was performed to determine factors associated with retention. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between HIV disclosure, Option B+ knowledge, and retention after adjusting for age, schooling, and travel time to clinic. Results: We enrolled 50 cases and 153 controls. Median age was 30 years (interquartile range (IQR) 25–34), and the majority (82%) initiated ART during pregnancy at a median gestational age of 24 weeks (IQR 16–28). Ninety-one per cent of the cases (39/43) who started ART during pregnancy defaulted by three months postpartum. HIV disclosure to the primary sex partner was more common among women retained in care (100% versus 78%, p < 0.001). Odds of retention were significantly higher among women with: age >25 years (odds ratio (OR) 2.44), completion of primary school (OR 3.06), awareness of partner HIV status (OR 5.20), pre-ART education (OR 6.17), higher number of correct answers to Option B+ knowledge questions (OR 1.82), and support while taking ART (OR 3.65). Pre-ART education and knowledge were significantly correlated (r = 0.43, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, awareness of partner HIV status (OR 4.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51–10.94, p = 0.02) and Option B+ knowledge (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.15–2.23, p = 0.004) remained associated with retention. Conclusions: Interventions that address partner disclosure and strengthen pre-ART education around the benefits of ART for maternal and child health should be evaluated to improve retention in Malawi’s Option B+ programme. PMID:28453243

Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

PubMed

Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

2015-01-01

Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

An Evaluation of the Wake County Public School System Alternative Educational Options, 2009-10. E&R Report No. 10.15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhea, Anisa

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Wake County Public School System (WCPSS) alternative educational options. The WCPSS options are similar to those in other North Carolina districts. WCPSS student outcomes based on state assessments and federal standards are also equivalent or higher than other districts, although the capacity for WCPSS…

Can we improve partner notification rates through expedited partner therapy in the UK? Findings from an exploratory trial of Accelerated Partner Therapy (APT).

PubMed

Estcourt, Claudia; Sutcliffe, Lorna; Cassell, Jackie; Mercer, Catherine H; Copas, Andrew; James, Laura; Low, Nicola; Horner, Patrick; Clarke, Michael; Symonds, Merle; Roberts, Tracy; Tsourapas, Angelos; Johnson, Anne M

2012-02-01

To develop two new models of expedited partner therapy for the UK, and evaluate them for feasibility, acceptability and preliminary outcome estimates to inform the design of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Two models of expedited partner therapy (APTHotline and APTPharmacy), known as 'Accelerated Partner Therapy' (APT) were developed. A non-randomised comparative study was conducted of the two APT models and routine partner notification (PN), in which the index patient chose the PN option for his/her partner(s) in two contrasting clinics. The proportion of contactable partners treated when routine PN was chosen was 42/117 (36%) and was significantly higher if either APT option was chosen: APTHotline 80/135 (59%), p=0.003; APTPharmacy 29/44 (66%) p=0.001. However, partner treatment was often achieved through other routes. Although 40-60% of partners in APT groups returned urine samples for sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing, almost none accessed HIV and syphilis testing. APT options appear to facilitate faster treatment of sex partners than routine PN. Preferences and recruitment rates varied between sites, related to staff satisfaction with existing routine PN; approach to consent; and possibly, characteristics of local populations. Both methods of APT were feasible and acceptable to many patients and led to higher rates of partner treatment than routine PN. Preferences and recruitment rates varied greatly between settings, suggesting that organisational and cultural factors may have an important impact on the feasibility of an RCT and on outcomes. Mindful of these factors, it is proposed that APT should now be evaluated in a cluster RCT.

78 FR 21131 - Prospective Grant of An Exclusive Evaluation Option License: Pre-clinical Evaluation of Anti...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

... immunotoxins for the treatment of human ROR1 expressing cancers, wherein the immunotoxin comprises an anti-ROR1... human ROR1 expressing cancers. The immunotoxin will comprise a chimeric mouse anti-human receptor... Exclusive Evaluation Option License: Pre- clinical Evaluation of Anti-tyrosine Kinase-like Orphan Receptor 1...

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

2016-01-01

Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

Reaching High-Risk Youth through Model AIDS Education Programs: A Case by Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Population Options, Washington, DC.

This report evaluates the High Risk Youth Demonstration Project, which is predicated on the idea that youth-serving agencies (YSAs) can be key sources for adolescent AIDS education. When the Center for Population Options (CPO) conceptualized a strategy for bringing AIDS education to underserved youth, it was responding to the following three areas…

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: Part 2--greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

A study was conducted to compare the technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions. Part 2 of the study focused on determining the greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts of different pathways to stabilize major surface reservoir levels. Using a detailed electric grid model and taking into account impacts on the operation of the water supply infrastructure, the greenhouse gas emissions and effect on overall grid renewable penetration level was calculated for each water supply option portfolio that successfully secured water availability from Part 1. The effects on the energy signature of water supply infrastructure were found to be just as important as that of the fundamental processes for each option. Under historical (baseline) conditions, many option portfolios were capable of securing surface reservoir levels with a net neutral or negative effect on emissions and a benefit for renewable energy utilization. Under climate change augmented conditions, however, careful selection of the water supply option portfolio was required to prevent imposing major emissions increases for the system. Overall, this analysis provided quantitative insight into the tradeoffs associated with choosing different pathways for securing California's water supply. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

77 FR 65698 - Prospective Grant of Exclusive Evaluation Option License: Pre-clinical Evaluation of Human...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-30

... diseases. Upon expiration or termination of the exclusive evaluation option license, MEDICENNA will have...-death related consequences of various diseases and injuries. This technology could be used to minimize or prevent apoptotic damage that can be caused by neurodegenerative disorders, e.g., Alzheimer's...

Communications satellite business ventures - Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, J. S.

1986-01-01

An economic evaluation and planning procedure which assesses the effects of various policies on fixed satellite business ventures is described. The procedure is based on a stochastic financial simulation model, the Domsat II, which evaluates spacecraft reliability, market performance, and cost uncertainties. The application of the Domsat II model to the assessment of NASA's ion thrusters for on-orbit propulsion and GaAs solar cell technology is discussed. The effects of insurance rates and the self-insurance option on the financial performance of communication satellite business ventures are investigated. The selection of a transportation system for placing the satellites into GEO is analyzed.

A users' manual for MCPRAM (Monte Carlo PReprocessor for AMEER) and for the fuze options in AMEER (Aero Mechanical Equation Evaluation Routines)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaFarge, R.A.

1990-05-01

MCPRAM (Monte Carlo PReprocessor for AMEER), a computer program that uses Monte Carlo techniques to create an input file for the AMEER trajectory code, has been developed for the Sandia National Laboratories VAX and Cray computers. Users can select the number of trajectories to compute, which AMEER variables to investigate, and the type of probability distribution for each variable. Any legal AMEER input variable can be investigated anywhere in the input run stream with either a normal, uniform, or Rayleigh distribution. Users also have the option to use covariance matrices for the investigation of certain correlated variables such as boostermore » pre-reentry errors and wind, axial force, and atmospheric models. In conjunction with MCPRAM, AMEER was modified to include the variables introduced by the covariance matrices and to include provisions for six types of fuze models. The new fuze models and the new AMEER variables are described in this report.« less

Design Evolution Study - Aging Options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. McDaniel

The purpose of this study is to identify options and issues for aging commercial spent nuclear fuel received for disposal at the Yucca Mountain Mined Geologic Repository. Some early shipments of commercial spent nuclear fuel to the repository may be received with high-heat-output (younger) fuel assemblies that will need to be managed to meet thermal goals for emplacement. The capability to age as much as 40,000 metric tons of heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear he1 would provide more flexibility in the design to manage this younger fuel and to decouple waste receipt and waste emplacement. The following potential agingmore » location options are evaluated: (1) Surface aging at four locations near the North Portal; (2) Subsurface aging in the permanent emplacement drifts; and (3) Subsurface aging in a new subsurface area. The following aging container options are evaluated: (1) Complete Waste Package; (2) Stainless Steel inner liner of the waste package; (3) Dual Purpose Canisters; (4) Multi-Purpose Canisters; and (5) New disposable canister for uncanistered commercial spent nuclear fuel. Each option is compared to a ''Base Case,'' which is the expected normal waste packaging process without aging. A Value Engineering approach is used to score each option against nine technical criteria and rank the options. Open issues with each of the options and suggested future actions are also presented. Costs for aging containers and aging locations are evaluated separately. Capital costs are developed for direct costs and distributable field costs. To the extent practical, unit costs are presented. Indirect costs, operating costs, and total system life cycle costs will be evaluated outside of this study. Three recommendations for aging commercial spent nuclear fuel--subsurface, surface, and combined surface and subsurface are presented for further review in the overall design re-evaluation effort. Options that were evaluated but not recommended are: subsurface aging in a new subsurface area (high cost); surface aging in the complete waste package (risk to the waste package and impact on the Waste Handling Facility); and aging in the stainless steel liner (impact on the waste package design and new high risk operations added to the waste packaging process). The selection of a design basis for aging will be made in conjunction with the other design re-evaluation studies.« less

5 CFR 410.203 - Options for developing employees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Options for developing employees. 410.203... Planning and Evaluating Training § 410.203 Options for developing employees. Agencies may use a full range of options to meet their mission-related organizational and employee development needs, such as...

Dynamic Modeling of Yield and Particle Size Distribution in Continuous Bayer Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, Jerry L.; Kapraun, Chris

Process engineers at Alcoa's Point Comfort refinery are using a dynamic model of the Bayer precipitation area to evaluate options in operating strategies. The dynamic model, a joint development effort between Point Comfort and the Alcoa Technical Center, predicts process yields, particle size distributions and occluded soda levels for various flowsheet configurations of the precipitation and classification circuit. In addition to rigorous heat, material and particle population balances, the model includes mechanistic kinetic expressions for particle growth and agglomeration and semi-empirical kinetics for nucleation and attrition. The kinetic parameters have been tuned to Point Comfort's operating data, with excellent matches between the model results and plant data. The model is written for the ACSL dynamic simulation program with specifically developed input/output graphical user interfaces to provide a user-friendly tool. Features such as a seed charge controller enhance the model's usefulness for evaluating operating conditions and process control approaches.

The European style arithmetic Asian option pricing with stochastic interest rate based on Black Scholes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winarti, Yuyun Guna; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The stock investment is a high risk investment. Therefore, there are derivative securities to reduce these risks. One of them is Asian option. The most fundamental of option is option pricing. Many factors that determine the option price are underlying asset price, strike price, maturity date, volatility, risk free interest rate and dividends. Various option pricing usually assume that risk free interest rate is constant. While in reality, this factor is stochastic process. The arithmetic Asian option is free from distribution, then, its pricing is done using the modified Black-Scholes model. In this research, the modification use the Curran approximation. This research focuses on the arithmetic Asian option pricing without dividends. The data used is the stock daily closing data of Telkom from January 1 2016 to June 30 2016. Finnaly, those option price can be used as an option trading strategy.

BIOMASS REBURNING - MODELING/ENGINEERING STUDIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vladimir Zamansky; Chris Lindsey; Vitali Lissianski

This project is designed to develop engineering and modeling tools for a family of NO{sub x} control technologies utilizing biomass as a reburning fuel. During the ninth reporting period (September 27--December 31, 1999), EER prepared a paper Kinetic Model of Biomass Reburning and submitted it for publication and presentation at the 28th Symposium (International) on Combustion, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, July 30--August 4, 2000. Antares Group Inc, under contract to Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation, evaluated the economic feasibility of biomass reburning options for Dunkirk Station. A preliminary report is included in this quarterly report.

An Initial Study of the Sensitivity of Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Spacing Sensitivity to Weather and Configuration Input Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riddick, Stephen E.; Hinton, David A.

2000-01-01

A study has been performed on a computer code modeling an aircraft wake vortex spacing system during final approach. This code represents an initial engineering model of a system to calculate reduced approach separation criteria needed to increase airport productivity. This report evaluates model sensitivity toward various weather conditions (crosswind, crosswind variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and thermal gradient), code configurations (approach corridor option, and wake demise definition), and post-processing techniques (rounding of provided spacing values, and controller time variance).

Emile Durkheim and altruistic suicide.

PubMed

Stack, Steven

2004-01-01

Altruistic suicides are marked by cultural approval and benefit the social order. They occur in social groups where there is a low value placed on the individual. The principle loci of altruistic suicide are primitive societies and the modern military. Subtypes of altruistic suicide (obligatory, optional, acute) are delineated and evaluated. Military suicide rates are seen as being inversely related to civilian suicide rates. Key limitations of Durkheim's model are discussed including his exaggerating the prevalence of obligatory suicide. Suggested points of departure for future research on altruistic suicide include comparative analyses of suicide in the modern military, and application of the concept of optional altruistic suicide to the impact of suicide acceptability on national suicide rates.

Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices--How numerical implementation affects the results.

PubMed

Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

2016-01-01

This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed.

Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

2017-04-01

Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

Sustainable water use and management options in a water-stressed river basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, Feyera; Dadson, Simon; Dyer, Ellen; Barbour, Emily; Charles, Katrina; Hope, Robert

2017-04-01

Sustainable water resource is critical for maintaining healthy ecosystems and supporting socio-economic sectors. Hydro-climatic change and variability, population growth as well as new infrastructure developments create water security risks. Therefore, evidence-based management decisions are necessary to improve water security and meet the future water demands of multiple competing sectors. In this work we perform water resource modelling in order to investigate the impact of increasing water demand (expanding agriculture, booming industry, growing population) on the sustainable water use in Turkwel river basin, located in arid north-western Kenya. We test different management options to determine those that meet the water demands of the concerned sectors whilst minimising environmental impact. We perform scenario analysis using Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model to explore different ranges of climate conditions, population growth rates, irrigation scale, reservoir operations, and economic development. The results can be used as a scientific guideline for the policy makers who decide the alternative management options that ensure the sustainable water use in the basin. The work is part of the REACH - improving water security for the poor program (http://reachwater.org.uk/), aiming to support a pathway to sustainable growth and poverty reduction

Comparison of different options for harvest of a therapeutic protein product from high cell density yeast fermentation broth.

PubMed

Wang, Alice; Lewus, Rachael; Rathore, Anurag S

2006-05-05

Recovery of therapeutic protein from high cell density yeast fermentations at commercial scale is a challenging task. In this study, we investigate and compare three different harvest approaches, namely centrifugation followed by depth filtration, centrifugation followed by filter-aid enhanced depth filtration, and microfiltration. This is achieved by presenting a case study involving recovery of a therapeutic protein from Pichia pastoris fermentation broth. The focus of this study is on performance of the depth filtration and the microfiltration steps. The experimental data has been fitted to the conventional models for cake filtration to evaluate specific cake resistance and cake compressibility. In the case of microfiltration, the experimental data agrees well with flux predicted by shear induced diffusion model. It is shown that, under optimal conditions, all three options can deliver the desired product recovery ( >80%), harvest time ( <15 h including sequential concentration/diafiltration step), and clarification ( <6 NTU). However, the three options differ in terms of process development time required, capital cost, consumable cost, ease of scale-ability and process robustness. It is recommended that these be kept under consideration when making a final decision on a harvesting approach.

Domestic refrigeration appliances in Poland: Potential for improving energy efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, S.; Schipper, L.; Lebot, B.

1993-08-01

This report is based on information collected from the main Polish manufacturer of refrigeration appliances. We describe their production facilities, and show that the energy consumption of their models for domestic sale is substantially higher than the average for similar models made in W. Europe. Lack of data and uncertainty about future production costs in Poland limits our evaluation of the cost-effective potential to increase energy efficiency, but it appears likely that considerable improvement would be economic from a societal perspective. Many design options are likely to have a simple payback of less than five years. We found that themore » production facilities are in need of substantial modernization in order to produce higher quality and more efficient appliances. We discuss policy options that could help to build a market for more efficient appliances in Poland and thereby encourage investment to produce such equipment.« less

[Effect of different therapy options on bronchial contraction in rats with modeled obstructive pulmonary disease].

PubMed

Kuzubova, N A; Fedin, A N; Lebedeva, E S; Platonova, I S

2014-09-01

In the model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, produced in rats by 60-day exposure to nitrogen dioxide, the effect of different options of combination therapy (corticosteroids, anticholinergics, adrenergic agonists) on the functional state of the bronchi was studied. The contractile activity of strips of the bronchi caused by nerve or smooth muscle stimulation was evaluated. Corticosteroid monotherapy resulted in deterioration of the functional state of the bronchial wall neuromuscular apparatus due to corticosteroid resistance, evolving under the influence of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide. Application of M-anticholinergic tiotropium had a beneficial effect on the functional state of the bronchi smooth muscles, leading to the full restoration of the bronchial wall contractile activity and removal the morphological manifestations of inflammatory lung tissue remodeling. Most effective in terms of impact on the functional state of the bronchial wall neuromuscular apparatus was corticosteroid therapy combined with M-cholinolytik or beta2-adrenoagonist.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

PubMed

Tweya, Hannock; Keiser, Olivia; Haas, Andreas D; Tenthani, Lyson; Phiri, Sam; Egger, Matthias; Estill, Janne

2016-03-27

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

A System Dynamics Approach for the Selection of Contaminated Land Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, U. S.; Kuebert, M.; Finkel, M.; Bieg, M.

2006-12-01

Large-scale contaminated land and groundwater is a widespread problem that can severely impact human health, the environment and the economy at many urban sites all over the world. Usually a considerable number of potential management solutions exist at each of these sites. A detailed investigation of all these options, however, is not economically feasible which makes streamlining of the planning and decision process a mandatory requirement. Decisions to be taken should be made as early as possible in order to reduce expenditures on site investigation. Therefore, a tiered decision-making procedure is required, including (i) identification and prioritization of focal areas of risks, (ii) feasibility screening of remediation targets and available management alternatives to narrow the range of possible options for (iii) subsequent detailed investigations of only a select group of preferable options. For each of these elements, tailored decision and investigation concepts are required. These concepts and applied methods should be specifically adapted to the type and scale of the particular decision to be taken- more target-oriented, cost-efficient investigation programs, as well as model-based assessment methods are needed (Ruegner et al. 2006). A gap exists within this framework with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies representing the first decision level. To fill this gap, a new system dynamics approach has been developed that represents the system of source- pathway-receptor sequences by means of a mass flux model. The dynamics are governed by the effects of possible remedial actions, which are described as mass flux change over time (Serapiglia et al. 2005). This approach has been implemented in the preliminary evaluation tool CARO-plus (Cost-efficiency Assessment of Remediation Options) that models the effects of potential remedial actions, including tackling the contaminant source and managing the groundwater plume. The model represents the causal relationships that exist between the state of the system, the effects of the technologies and their costs, and may considerably impact the outcome to be predicted. The tool enables a fast and effective "screening" of management scenarios using simplified approaches (analytical models). Replacing the concept of total cleanup of sites based on concentration standards, the evaluation tool contains risk modules that describe exposure pathways, i.e. transfer of contaminants from groundwater to the receptor "human being", in accordance to MEPAS (Strenge & Chamberlain 1995). As multiple lines of evidence may apply, the effects of remediation options can be analyzed on the basis of contaminant mass flux, concentrations, and/or risk indices (carcinogenic/noncarcinogenic). Costs are calculated in terms of net present values. Uncertainty is taken into account using Monte-Carlo sensitivity analyses. In the presentation, examples will be shown for how the proposed approach helps to pre-select compatible remediation options by giving an overview to the following set of questions: (i) what is the time scale for risks expected at a particular site, (ii) does the scenario reduce/control risk at the receptor, (iii) is the scenario compatible with cleanup objectives (e.g. in the case that concentration standards are still required for specific compounds present at a site), (iv) does the scenario satisfy cost objectives and can therefore be considered financially viable, (v) is the scenario acceptable to regulators and the community, and (vi) what factors are most critical to the decision-making process.

Sustainability likelihood of remediation options for metal-contaminated soil/sediment.

PubMed

Chen, Season S; Taylor, Jessica S; Baek, Kitae; Khan, Eakalak; Tsang, Daniel C W; Ok, Yong Sik

2017-05-01

Multi-criteria analysis and detailed impact analysis were carried out to assess the sustainability of four remedial alternatives for metal-contaminated soil/sediment at former timber treatment sites and harbour sediment with different scales. The sustainability was evaluated in the aspects of human health and safety, environment, stakeholder concern, and land use, under four different scenarios with varying weighting factors. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed to reveal the likelihood of accomplishing sustainable remediation with different treatment options at different sites. The results showed that in-situ remedial technologies were more sustainable than ex-situ ones, where in-situ containment demonstrated both the most sustainable result and the highest probability to achieve sustainability amongst the four remedial alternatives in this study, reflecting the lesser extent of off-site and on-site impacts. Concerns associated with ex-situ options were adverse impacts tied to all four aspects and caused by excavation, extraction, and off-site disposal. The results of this study suggested the importance of considering the uncertainties resulting from the remedial options (i.e., stochastic analysis) in addition to the overall sustainability scores (i.e., deterministic analysis). The developed framework and model simulation could serve as an assessment for the sustainability likelihood of remedial options to ensure sustainable remediation of contaminated sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated process modeling for the laser inertial fusion energy (LIFE) generation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W. R.; Anklam, T. M.; Erlandson, A. C.; Miles, R. R.; Simon, A. J.; Sawicki, R.; Storm, E.

2010-08-01

A concept for a new fusion-fission hybrid technology is being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The primary application of this technology is base-load electrical power generation. However, variants of the baseline technology can be used to "burn" spent nuclear fuel from light water reactors or to perform selective transmutation of problematic fission products. The use of a fusion driver allows very high burn-up of the fission fuel, limited only by the radiation resistance of the fuel form and system structures. As a part of this process, integrated process models have been developed to aid in concept definition. Several models have been developed. A cost scaling model allows quick assessment of design changes or technology improvements on cost of electricity. System design models are being used to better understand system interactions and to do design trade-off and optimization studies. Here we describe the different systems models and present systems analysis results. Different market entry strategies are discussed along with potential benefits to US energy security and nuclear waste disposal. Advanced technology options are evaluated and potential benefits from additional R&D targeted at the different options is quantified.

Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess thermal hazard and vulnerability in sensitive phenological stages. Cultivar-specific yield response functions to water availability were used to assess the reduction of yield for a determinate management option. Downscaled climate scenarios have been used to calculate indicators of soil water availability and thermal times and to evaluate the variability of crop phenology in combination with critical temperatures. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Management options were defined by combinations of irrigation strategies (optimal, rainfed and deficit) with use of alternate varieties. As regards hydrologic conditions, risk assessment has been done at landscape scale in all soil units within each study area. The mechanistic model SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate and irrigation. Different farm management options were evaluated. In a moderate water shortage scenario, deficit irrigation was an effective strategy to cope with climate change risks. In a severe water shortage scenario, the study showed the potentiality of intra-specific biodiversity to reduce risk of yield losses, although costs should be evaluated against the benefits of each specific management option. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Magnetic suspension and balance system advanced study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boom, R. W.; Eyssa, Y. M.; Mcintosh, G. E.; Abdelsalam, M. K.

1985-01-01

An improved compact design for a superconducting magnetic suspension and balance system for an 8 ft. x 8 ft. transonic wind tunnel is developed. The original design of an MSBS in NASA Cr-3802 utilized 14 external superconductive coils and a superconductive solenoid in the airplane test model suspended in a wind tunnel. The improvements are in the following areas: test model solenoid options, dynamic force limits on the model, magnet cooling options, structure and cryogenic designs, power supply specifications, and cost and performance evaluations. The improvements are: MSBS cost reduction of 28%, weight; reduction of 43%, magnet system ampere-meter reduction of 38%, helium liquifier capacity reduction by 33%, magnet system stored energy reduction by 55%, AC loss to liquid helium reduced by 76%, system power supply reduced by 68%, test coil pole strength increased by 19%, wing magnetization increased by 40%, and control frequency limit increased by 200% from 10 Hz to 30 Hz. The improvements are due to: magnetic holmium coil forms in the test model, better rare earth permanent magnets in the wings, fiberglass-epoxy structure replacing stainless steel, better coil configuration, and new saddle roll coil design.

Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Niv, Yael

2015-07-01

In reinforcement learning (RL), a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: What is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: How can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and we describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of RL in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional RL algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Gershman, Samuel J.; Niv, Yael

2015-01-01

In reinforcement learning, a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: what is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: how can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of reinforcement learning in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional reinforcement learning algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. PMID:25808176

Meta Search Engines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garman, Nancy

1999-01-01

Describes common options and features to consider in evaluating which meta search engine will best meet a searcher's needs. Discusses number and names of engines searched; other sources and specialty engines; search queries; other search options; and results options. (AEF)

RESTORATION PLUS: A COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM TO DEVELOP AND EVALUATE ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION AND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS TO ACHIEVE ECOLOGICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is evaluating ecosystem restoration and management techniques to ensure they create sustainable solutions for degraded watersheds. ORD NRMRL initiated the Restoration Plus (RePlus) program in 2002 to a) evaluate ecosystem restoration and management options, b) assess the non-...

Document Delivery: Evaluating the Options.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Suzanne M.

1997-01-01

Discusses options available to libraries for document delivery. Topics include users' needs; cost; copyright compliance; traditional interlibrary loan; types of suppliers; selection criteria, including customer service; new developments in interlibrary loan, including outsourcing arrangements; and the need to evaluate suppliers. (LRW)

A new perspective on Quantum Finance using the Black-Scholes pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Lamine

2007-03-01

Options are known to be divided into two types, the first type is called a call option and the second type is called a put option and these options are offered to stock holders in order to hedge their positions against risky fluctuations of the stock price. It is important to mention that due to fluctuations of the stock price, options can be found sometimes deep in the money, at the money and out of the money. A deep in the money option is described when the option's holder has a positive expected payoff, at the money option is when the option's holder has a zero expected payoff and an out of the money option is when the payoff is negative. In this work, we will assume the stock price to be described by the well known Black-Scholes model or sometimes called the multiplicative model. Using Ito calculus, Martingale and supermartingale theories, we investigated the Black-Scholes pricing equation at the money (X(stock price)= K (strike price)) when the expected payoff of the options holder is zero. We also hedged the Black-Scholes pricing equation in the limit when delta is zero to obtain the non-relativistic time independent Schroedinger equation in quantum mechanics. We compared the two equations and found the diffusion constant to be a function of the stock price in contrast to the Bachelier model we have worked on earlier. We solved the Schroedinger equation and found a dependence between interest rate, volatility and strike price at the money.

Assessment of Options for the Treatment of Nitrate Salt Wastes at Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Bruce Alan; Funk, David John; Stevens, Patrice Ann

2016-03-17

This paper summarizes the methodology used to evaluate options for treatment of the remediated nitrate salt waste containers at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The method selected must enable treatment of the waste drums, which consist of a mixture of complex nitrate salts (oxidizer) improperly mixed with sWheat Scoop®1, an organic kitty litter and absorbent (fuel), in a manner that renders the waste safe, meets the specifications of waste acceptance criteria, and is suitable for transport and final disposal in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant located in Carlsbad, New Mexico. A Core Remediation Team was responsible for comprehensively reviewing the options,more » ensuring a robust, defensible treatment recommendation. The evaluation process consisted of two steps. First, a prescreening process was conducted to cull the list on the basis for a decision of feasibility of certain potential options with respect to the criteria. Then, the remaining potential options were evaluated and ranked against each of the criteria in a consistent methodology. Numerical scores were established by consensus of the review team. Finally, recommendations were developed based on current information and understanding of the scientific, technical, and regulatory situation. A discussion of the preferred options and documentation of the process used to reach the recommended treatment options are presented.« less

Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-Based Risk Model (GERM) Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2013-01-01

This software describes the transport and energy deposition of the passage of galactic cosmic rays in astronaut tissues during space travel, or heavy ion beams in patients in cancer therapy. Space radiation risk is a probability distribution, and time-dependent biological events must be accounted for physical description of space radiation transport in tissues and cells. A stochastic model can calculate the probability density directly without unverified assumptions about shape of probability density function. The prior art of transport codes calculates the average flux and dose of particles behind spacecraft and tissue shielding. Because of the signaling times for activation and relaxation in the cell and tissue, transport code must describe temporal and microspatial density of functions to correlate DNA and oxidative damage with non-targeted effects of signals, bystander, etc. These are absolutely ignored or impossible in the prior art. The GERM code provides scientists data interpretation of experiments; modeling of beam line, shielding of target samples, and sample holders; and estimation of basic physical and biological outputs of their experiments. For mono-energetic ion beams, basic physical and biological properties are calculated for a selected ion type, such as kinetic energy, mass, charge number, absorbed dose, or fluence. Evaluated quantities are linear energy transfer (LET), range (R), absorption and fragmentation cross-sections, and the probability of nuclear interactions after 1 or 5 cm of water equivalent material. In addition, a set of biophysical properties is evaluated, such as the Poisson distribution for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and DNA damage yields per cell. Also, the GERM code calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle in a selected material. The GERM code makes the numerical estimates of basic physical and biophysical quantities of high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the first option, properties of monoenergetic beams are treated. In the second option, the transport of beams in different materials is treated. Similar biophysical properties as in the first option are evaluated for the primary ion and its secondary particles. Additional properties related to the nuclear fragmentation of the beam are evaluated. The GERM code is a computationally efficient Monte-Carlo heavy-ion-beam model. It includes accurate models of LET, range, residual energy, and straggling, and the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSGRG) nuclear database.

Public health economic evaluation of different European Union-level policy options aimed at reducing population dietary trans fat intake.

PubMed

Martin-Saborido, Carlos; Mouratidou, Theodora; Livaniou, Anastasia; Caldeira, Sandra; Wollgast, Jan

2016-11-01

The adverse relation between dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) intake and coronary artery disease risk is well established. Many countries in the European Union (EU) and worldwide have implemented different policies to reduce the TFA intake of their populations. The aim of this study was to assess the added value of EU-level action by estimating the cost-effectiveness of 3 possible EU-level policy measures to reduce population dietary TFA intake. This was calculated against a reference situation of not implementing any EU-level policy (i.e., by assuming only national or self-regulatory measures). We developed a mathematical model to compare different policy options at the EU level: 1) to do nothing beyond the current state (reference situation), 2) to impose mandatory TFA labeling of prepackaged foods, 3) to seek voluntary agreements toward further reducing industrially produced TFA (iTFA) content in foods, and 4) to impose a legislative limit for iTFA content in foods. The model indicated that to impose an EU-level legal limit or to make voluntary agreements may, over the course of a lifetime (85 y), avoid the loss of 3.73 and 2.19 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively, and save >51 and 23 billion euros when compared with the reference situation. Implementing mandatory TFA labeling can also avoid the loss of 0.98 million DALYs, but this option incurs more costs than it saves compared with the reference option. The model indicates that there is added value of an EU-level action, either via a legal limit or through voluntary agreements, with the legal limit option producing the highest additional health benefits. Introducing mandatory TFA labeling for the EU common market may provide some additional health benefits; however, this would likely not be a cost-effective strategy.

Public health economic evaluation of different European Union–level policy options aimed at reducing population dietary trans fat intake12

PubMed Central

Mouratidou, Theodora; Livaniou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Background: The adverse relation between dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) intake and coronary artery disease risk is well established. Many countries in the European Union (EU) and worldwide have implemented different policies to reduce the TFA intake of their populations. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the added value of EU-level action by estimating the cost-effectiveness of 3 possible EU-level policy measures to reduce population dietary TFA intake. This was calculated against a reference situation of not implementing any EU-level policy (i.e., by assuming only national or self-regulatory measures). Design: We developed a mathematical model to compare different policy options at the EU level: 1) to do nothing beyond the current state (reference situation), 2) to impose mandatory TFA labeling of prepackaged foods, 3) to seek voluntary agreements toward further reducing industrially produced TFA (iTFA) content in foods, and 4) to impose a legislative limit for iTFA content in foods. Results: The model indicated that to impose an EU-level legal limit or to make voluntary agreements may, over the course of a lifetime (85 y), avoid the loss of 3.73 and 2.19 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively, and save >51 and 23 billion euros when compared with the reference situation. Implementing mandatory TFA labeling can also avoid the loss of 0.98 million DALYs, but this option incurs more costs than it saves compared with the reference option. Conclusions: The model indicates that there is added value of an EU-level action, either via a legal limit or through voluntary agreements, with the legal limit option producing the highest additional health benefits. Introducing mandatory TFA labeling for the EU common market may provide some additional health benefits; however, this would likely not be a cost-effective strategy. PMID:27680991

The Effect of Solution Heat Treatment on an Advanced Nickel-Base Disk Alloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gayda, J.; Gabb, T. P.; Kantzos, P. T.

2004-01-01

Five heat treat options for an advanced nickel-base disk alloy, LSHR, have been investigated. These included two conventional solution heat treat cycles, subsolvus/oil quench and supersolvus/fan cool, which yield fine grain and coarse grain microstructure disks respectively, as well as three advanced dual microstructure heat treat (DMHT) options. The DMHT options produce disks with a fine grain bore and a coarse grain rim. Based on an overall evaluation of the mechanical property data, it was evident that the three DMHT options achieved a desirable balance of properties in comparison to the conventional solution heat treatments for the LSHR alloy. However, one of the DMHT options, SUB/DMHT, produced the best set of properties, largely based on dwell crack growth data. Further evaluation of the SUB/DMHT option in spin pit experiments on a generic disk shape demonstrated the advantages and reliability of a dual grain structure at the component level.

Cost-effective particulate control options at Potomac Electric Power Company's Dickerson Station: An integrated approach to current and future particulate limits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christoffersen, S.W.; Rouse, G.T.; Krasnopoler, M.J.

1998-07-01

The Dickerson Generating Station evaluated several particulate control options to identify the most cost-effective option. The study's goals were to: eliminate the particulate scrubber and its high maintenance costs, and incorporate flexibility for low-sulfur coal and possible stricter emission limits. Each of the three Dickerson 190 MW units has a small 37-year-old electrostatic precipitator and a wet particulate scrubber. The study evaluated alternatives to replace the scrubber and enhance ESP performance: Existing ESP alternatives--Extend height of existing ESP; Flue gas conditioning. Scrubber stream alternatives--Partial-flow ESP or pulse jet baghouse. Full-flow alternatives--Supplemental ESP; COHPAC baghouse; replacement ESP or baghouse. A technicalmore » and economic prescreening eliminated some of the options. Capital, operating, and life cycle costs were estimated for the remaining options to determine the most cost-effective alternative. This paper will present the technical and economic evaluations done for this study, including performance and costs.« less

Food System Trade Study for a Near-Term Mars Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This paper evaluates several food system options for a near-term Mars mission, based on plans for the 120-day BIO-Plex test. Food systems considered in the study are based on the International Space Station (ISS) Assembly Phase and Assembly Complete food systems. The four systems considered are: 1) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging without salad production; 2) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging, with salad production; 3) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with bulk packaging, with salad production; 4) ISS assembly complete food system (US portion) with bulk packaging with salad and refrigeration/freezing. The food system options are assessed using equivalent system mass (ESM), which evaluates each option based upon the mass, volume, power, cooling and crewtime requirements that are associated with each food system option. However, since ESM is unable to elucidate the differences in psychological benefits between the food systems, a qualitative evaluation of each option is also presented.

CE-QUAL-W2: A Numerical Two-Dimensional, Laterally Averaged Model of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality; User’s Manual.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-08-01

publication by Ms. Jessica S. Ruff, Information Products Division, WES. This manual is published in loose-leaf format for convenience in ." ._ periodic...transfer computations. m. Variety of output options. Background 8. This manual is a product of a program of evaluation and refinement of mathematical water...zooplankton and higher order herbivores. However, these groups are presently not included in the model. Macrophyte production may also have an impact upon

Empowering Oncology Nurses to Lead Change Through a Shared Governance Project.

PubMed

Gordon, Jeanine N

2016-11-01

Nurses at the bed- or chairside are knowledgeable about clinical and operational concerns that need improvement and, consequently, are in the best position to generate and evaluate practical options and potential solutions to improve efficacy and care processes. Implementation of a shared governance model is effective in engaging staff nurses to make meaningful and sustainable change in patient care processes.

Digital adaptive controllers for VTOL vehicles. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, G. L.; Stein, G.; Pratt, S. G.

1979-01-01

The VTOL approach and landing test (VALT) adaptive software is documented. Two self-adaptive algorithms, one based on an implicit model reference design and the other on an explicit parameter estimation technique were evaluated. The organization of the software, user options, and a nominal set of input data are presented along with a flow chart and program listing of each algorithm.

Shale gas wastewater management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y; Duncan, Ian J

2016-01-01

This work presents an optimization framework for evaluating different wastewater treatment/disposal options for water management during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations. This framework takes into account both cost-effectiveness and system uncertainty. HF has enabled rapid development of shale gas resources. However, wastewater management has been one of the most contentious and widely publicized issues in shale gas production. The flowback and produced water (known as FP water) generated by HF may pose a serious risk to the surrounding environment and public health because this wastewater usually contains many toxic chemicals and high levels of total dissolved solids (TDS). Various treatment/disposal options are available for FP water management, such as underground injection, hazardous wastewater treatment plants, and/or reuse. In order to cost-effectively plan FP water management practices, including allocating FP water to different options and planning treatment facility capacity expansion, an optimization model named UO-FPW is developed in this study. The UO-FPW model can handle the uncertain information expressed in the form of fuzzy membership functions and probability density functions in the modeling parameters. The UO-FPW model is applied to a representative hypothetical case study to demonstrate its applicability in practice. The modeling results reflect the tradeoffs between economic objective (i.e., minimizing total-system cost) and system reliability (i.e., risk of violating fuzzy and/or random constraints, and meeting FP water treatment/disposal requirements). Using the developed optimization model, decision makers can make and adjust appropriate FP water management strategies through refining the values of feasibility degrees for fuzzy constraints and the probability levels for random constraints if the solutions are not satisfactory. The optimization model can be easily integrated into decision support systems for shale oil/gas lifecycle management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation Report of the Presidential/Secretarial Objective -- School Management Options Available to Indian People. Research and Evaluation Report Series No. 29.08.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Indian Training and Research Center, Tempe, AZ.

Presenting evaluations of the Bureau of Indian Affairs' (BIA) implementation of the School Management Option Project, a project designed to further American Indian control of schools and elevated to the status of Presidential/Secretarial Objective (P/SO) in 1974, this report includes separate evaluations by the National Indian Training and…

Choice of Hemodialysis Access in Older Adults: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Hall, Rasheeda K; Myers, Evan R; Rosas, Sylvia E; O'Hare, Ann M; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S

2017-06-07

Although arteriovenous fistulas have been found to be the most cost-effective form of hemodialysis access, the relative benefits of placing an arteriovenous fistula versus an arteriovenous graft seem to be least certain for older adults and when placed preemptively. However, older adults' life expectancy is heterogeneous, and most patients do not undergo permanent access creation until after dialysis initiation. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of arteriovenous fistula placement after dialysis initiation in older adults as a function of age and life expectancy. Using a hypothetical cohort of patients on incident hemodialysis with central venous catheters, we constructed Markov models of three treatment options: ( 1 ) arteriovenous fistula placement, ( 2 ) arteriovenous graft placement, or ( 3 ) continued catheter use. Costs, utilities, and transitional probabilities were derived from existing literature. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed by age group (65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, and 85-89 years old) and quartile of life expectancy. Costs, quality-adjusted life-months, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were evaluated for up to 5 years. The arteriovenous fistula option was cost effective compared with continued catheter use for all age and life expectancy groups, except for 85-89 year olds in the lowest life expectancy quartile. The arteriovenous fistula option was more cost effective than the arteriovenous graft option for all quartiles of life expectancy among the 65- to 69-year-old age group. For older age groups, differences in cost-effectiveness between the strategies were attenuated, and the arteriovenous fistula option tended to only be cost effective in patients with life expectancy >2 years. For groups for which the arteriovenous fistula option was not cost saving, the cost to gain one quality-adjusted life-month ranged from $2294 to $14,042. Among older adults, the cost-effectiveness of an arteriovenous fistula placed within the first month of dialysis diminishes with increasing age and lower life expectancy and is not the most cost-effective option for those with the most limited life expectancy. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Environmental assessment of gas management options at the Old Ammässuo landfill (Finland) by means of LCA-modeling (EASEWASTE).

PubMed

Manfredi, Simone; Niskanen, Antti; Christensen, Thomas H

2009-05-01

The current landfill gas (LFG) management (based on flaring and utilization for heat generation of the collected gas) and three potential future gas management options (LFG flaring, heat generation and combined heat and power generation) for the Old Ammässuo landfill (Espoo, Finland) were evaluated by life-cycle assessment modeling. The evaluation accounts for all resource utilization and emissions to the environment related to the gas generation and management for a life-cycle time horizon of 100 yr. The assessment criteria comprise standard impact categories (global warming, photo-chemical ozone formation, stratospheric ozone depletion, acidification and nutrient enrichment) and toxicity-related impact categories (human toxicity via soil, via water and via air, eco-toxicity in soil and in water chronic). The results of the life-cycle impact assessment show that disperse emissions of LFG from the landfill surface determine the highest potential impacts in terms of global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and human toxicity via soil. Conversely, the impact potentials estimated for other categories are numerically-negative when the collected LFG is utilized for energy generation, demonstrating that net environmental savings can be obtained. Such savings are proportional to the amount of gas utilized for energy generation and the gas energy recovery efficiency achieved, which thus have to be regarded as key parameters. As a result, the overall best performance is found for the heat generation option - as it has the highest LFG utilization/energy recovery rates - whereas the worst performance is estimated for the LFG flaring option, as no LFG is here utilized for energy generation. Therefore, to reduce the environmental burdens caused by the current gas management strategy, more LFG should be used for energy generation. This inherently requires a superior LFG capture rate that, in addition, would reduce fugitive emissions of LFG from the landfill surface, bringing further environmental benefits.

Adapting mudharabah principle in Islamic option

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaimi, Siti Noor Aini binti; Salleh, Hassilah binti

2013-04-01

Most of the options today use the Black-Scholes model as the basis in valuing their price. This conventional model involves the elements that are strictly prohibited in Islam namely riba, gharar and maisir. Hence, this paper introduces a new mathematical model that has been adapted with mudharabah principle to replace the Black-Scholes model. This new model which is more compatible with Islamic values produces a new Islamic option which avoids any form of oppression and injustice to all parties involved.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used tomore » determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, GabJin

2014-06-01

In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

Cheminformatic models based on machine learning for pyruvate kinase inhibitors of Leishmania mexicana.

PubMed

Jamal, Salma; Scaria, Vinod

2013-11-19

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease which affects approx. 12 million individuals worldwide and caused by parasite Leishmania. The current drugs used in the treatment of Leishmaniasis are highly toxic and has seen widespread emergence of drug resistant strains which necessitates the need for the development of new therapeutic options. The high throughput screen data available has made it possible to generate computational predictive models which have the ability to assess the active scaffolds in a chemical library followed by its ADME/toxicity properties in the biological trials. In the present study, we have used publicly available, high-throughput screen datasets of chemical moieties which have been adjudged to target the pyruvate kinase enzyme of L. mexicana (LmPK). The machine learning approach was used to create computational models capable of predicting the biological activity of novel antileishmanial compounds. Further, we evaluated the molecules using the substructure based approach to identify the common substructures contributing to their activity. We generated computational models based on machine learning methods and evaluated the performance of these models based on various statistical figures of merit. Random forest based approach was determined to be the most sensitive, better accuracy as well as ROC. We further added a substructure based approach to analyze the molecules to identify potentially enriched substructures in the active dataset. We believe that the models developed in the present study would lead to reduction in cost and length of clinical studies and hence newer drugs would appear faster in the market providing better healthcare options to the patients.

Path integral approach to closed-form option pricing formulas with applications to stochastic volatility and interest rate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, D.; Wouters, M.; Tempere, J.; Foulon, S.

2008-07-01

We present a path integral method to derive closed-form solutions for option prices in a stochastic volatility model. The method is explained in detail for the pricing of a plain vanilla option. The flexibility of our approach is demonstrated by extending the realm of closed-form option price formulas to the case where both the volatility and interest rates are stochastic. This flexibility is promising for the treatment of exotic options. Our analytical formulas are tested with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

Ground Vibration Testing Options for Space Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Alan; Smith, Robert K.; Goggin, David; Newsom, Jerry

2011-01-01

New NASA launch vehicles will require development of robust systems in a fiscally-constrained environment. NASA, Department of Defense (DoD), and commercial space companies routinely conduct ground vibration tests as an essential part of math model validation and launch vehicle certification. Although ground vibration testing must be a part of the integrated test planning process, more affordable approaches must also be considered. A study evaluated several ground vibration test options for the NASA Constellation Program flight test vehicles, Orion-1 and Orion-2, which concluded that more affordable ground vibration test options are available. The motivation for ground vibration testing is supported by historical examples from NASA and DoD. The approach used in the present study employed surveys of ground vibration test subject-matter experts that provided data to qualitatively rank six test options. Twenty-five experts from NASA, DoD, and industry provided scoring and comments for this study. The current study determined that both element-level modal tests and integrated vehicle modal tests have technical merits. Both have been successful in validating structural dynamic math models of launch vehicles. However, element-level testing has less overall cost and schedule risk as compared to integrated vehicle testing. Future NASA launch vehicle development programs should anticipate that some structural dynamics testing will be necessary. Analysis alone will be inadequate to certify a crew-capable launch vehicle. At a minimum, component and element structural dynamic tests are recommended for new vehicle elements. Three viable structural dynamic test options were identified. Modal testing of the new vehicle elements and an integrated vehicle test on the mobile launcher provided the optimal trade between technical, cost, and schedule.

A data-centric approach to understanding the pricing of financial options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J.; Dixon, M.; Read, B.; Cai, F. F.

2002-05-01

We investigate what can be learned from a purely phenomenological study of options prices without modelling assumptions. We fitted neural net (NN) models to LIFFE ``ESX'' European style FTSE 100 index options using daily data from 1992 to 1997. These non-parametric models reproduce the Black-Scholes (BS) analytic model in terms of fit and performance measures using just the usual five inputs (S, X, t, r, IV). We found that adding transaction costs (bid-ask spread) to these standard five parameters gives a comparable fit and performance. Tests show that the bid-ask spread can be a statistically significant explanatory variable for option prices. The difference in option prices between the models with transaction costs and those without ranges from about -3.0 to +1.5 index points, varying with maturity date. However, the difference depends on the moneyness (S/X), being greatest in-the-money. This suggests that use of a five-factor model can result in a pricing difference of up to #10 to #30 per call option contract compared with modelling under transaction costs. We found that the influence of transaction costs varied between different yearly subsets of the data. Open interest is also a significant explanatory variable, but volume is not.

Pricing European option with transaction costs under the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Wu, Min; Zhou, Ze-Min; Jing, Wei-Shu

2012-02-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model with transaction costs. Through the 'anchoring and adjustment' argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained.

Evaluation of Options for Interpreting Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report Secondary data from the BioResponse Operational Testing and Evaluation project were used to study six options for interpreting culture-based/microbial count data sets that include left censored data, or measurements that are less than established quantification limits and/or detection limits.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Life Cycle Assessment of landfill biogas management: sensitivity to diffuse and combustion air emissions.

PubMed

Beylot, Antoine; Villeneuve, Jacques; Bellenfant, Gaël

2013-02-01

GOAL AND SCOPE: The life cycle inventory of landfill emissions is a key point in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of waste management options and is highly subject to discussion. Result sensitivity to data inventory is accounted for through the implementation of scenarios that help examine how waste landfilling should be modeled in LCA. Four landfill biogas management options are environmentally evaluated in a Life Cycle Assessment perspective: (1) no biogas management (open dump), conventional landfill with (2) flaring, (3) combined heat and power (CHP) production in an internal combustion engine and (4) biogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses. Average, maximum and minimum literature values are considered both for combustion emission factors in flares and engines and for trace pollutant concentrations in biogas. Biogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses appears as the most relevant option with respect to most non-toxic impact categories and ecotoxicity, when considering average values for trace gas concentrations and combustion emission factors. Biogas combustion in an engine for CHP production shows the best performances in terms of climate change, but generates significantly higher photochemical oxidant formation and marine eutrophication impact potentials than flaring or biogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses. However the calculated environmental impact potentials of landfill biogas management options depend largely on the trace gas concentrations implemented in the model. The use of average or extreme values reported in the literature significantly modifies the impact potential of a given scenario (up to two orders of magnitude for open dumps with respect to human toxicity). This should be taken into account when comparing landfilling with other waste management options. Also, the actual performances of a landfill top cover (in terms of oxidation rates) and combustion technology (in terms of emission factors) appear as key parameters affecting the ranking of biogas management options. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing climate, challenging choices: identifying and evaluating climate change adaptation options for protected areas management in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Lemieux, Christopher J; Scott, Daniel J

2011-10-01

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

Changing Climate, Challenging Choices: Identifying and Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protected Areas Management in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemieux, Christopher J.; Scott, Daniel J.

2011-10-01

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

American option pricing in Gauss-Markov interest rate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Stefano

1999-07-01

In the context of Gaussian non-homogeneous interest-rate models, we study the problem of American bond option pricing. In particular, we show how to efficiently compute the exercise boundary in these models in order to decompose the price as a sum of a European option and an American premium. Generalizations to coupon-bearing bonds and jump-diffusion processes for the interest rates are also discussed.

Evaluation of INL Supplied MOOSE/OSPREY Model: Modeling Water Adsorption on Type 3A Molecular Sieve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pompilio, L. M.; DePaoli, D. W.; Spencer, B. B.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate Idaho National Lab’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software in modeling the adsorption of water onto type 3A molecular sieve (3AMS). MOOSE can be thought-of as a computing framework within which applications modeling specific coupled-phenomena can be developed and run. The application titled Off-gas SeParation and REcoverY (OSPREY) has been developed to model gas sorption in packed columns. The sorbate breakthrough curve calculated by MOOSE/OSPREY was compared to results previously obtained in the deep bed hydration tests conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The coding framework permits selection of various options, whenmore » they exist, for modeling a process. For example, the OSPREY module includes options to model the adsorption equilibrium with a Langmuir model or a generalized statistical thermodynamic adsorption (GSTA) model. The vapor solid equilibria and the operating conditions of the process (e.g., gas phase concentration) are required to calculate the concentration gradient driving the mass transfer between phases. Both the Langmuir and GSTA models were tested in this evaluation. Input variables were either known from experimental conditions, or were available (e.g., density) or were estimated (e.g., thermal conductivity of sorbent) from the literature. Variables were considered independent of time, i.e., rather than having a mass transfer coefficient that varied with time or position in the bed, the parameter was set to remain constant. The calculated results did not coincide with data from laboratory tests. The model accurately estimated the number of bed volumes processed for the given operating parameters, but breakthrough times were not accurately predicted, varying 50% or more from the data. The shape of the breakthrough curves also differed from the experimental data, indicating a much wider sorption band. Model modifications are needed to improve its utility and predictive capability. Recommended improvements include: greater flexibility for input of mass transfer parameters, time-variable gas inlet concentration, direct output of loading and temperature profiles along the bed, and capability to conduct simulations of beds in series.« less

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of PV Inverter Grid Support on Hawaiian Electric Feeders: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Austin; Prabakar, Kumaraguru; Nagarajan, Adarsh

As more grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) inverters become compliant with evolving interconnections requirements, there is increased interest from utilities in understanding how to best deploy advanced grid-support functions (GSF) in the field. One efficient and cost-effective method to examine such deployment options is to leverage power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) testing methods. Two Hawaiian Electric feeder models were converted to real-time models in the OPAL-RT real-time digital testing platform, and integrated with models of GSF capable PV inverters that were modeled from characterization test data. The integrated model was subsequently used in PHIL testing to evaluate the effects of different fixed power factormore » and volt-watt control settings on voltage regulation of the selected feeders. The results of this study were provided as inputs for field deployment and technical interconnection requirements for grid-connected PV inverters on the Hawaiian Islands.« less

SECURITY MODELING FOR MARITIME PORT DEFENSE RESOURCE ALLOCATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.; Dunn, D.

2010-09-07

Redeployment of existing law enforcement resources and optimal use of geographic terrain are examined for countering the threat of a maritime based small-vessel radiological or nuclear attack. The evaluation was based on modeling conducted by the Savannah River National Laboratory that involved the development of options for defensive resource allocation that can reduce the risk of a maritime based radiological or nuclear threat. A diverse range of potential attack scenarios has been assessed. As a result of identifying vulnerable pathways, effective countermeasures can be deployed using current resources. The modeling involved the use of the Automated Vulnerability Evaluation for Risksmore » of Terrorism (AVERT{reg_sign}) software to conduct computer based simulation modeling. The models provided estimates for the probability of encountering an adversary based on allocated resources including response boats, patrol boats and helicopters over various environmental conditions including day, night, rough seas and various traffic flow rates.« less

Linking Domain-Specific Models to Describe the Complex Dynamics and Management Options of a Saline Floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, J.; Laattoe, T.

2016-12-01

Complex hydrological environments present management challenges where surface water-groundwater interactions involve interlinked processes at multiple scales. One example is Australia's River Murray, which flows through a semi-arid landscape with highly saline groundwater. In this region, the floodplain ecology depends on freshwater provided from the main river channel, anabranches, and floodwaters. However, in the past century access to freshwater has been further limited due to river regulation, land clearance, and irrigation. A programme to improve ecosystem health at Pike Floodplain, South Australia, is evaluating management options such as environmental watering and groundwater pumping. Due to the complicated interdependencies between processes moving water and salt within the floodplain, a series of inter-linked models were developed to assist with management decisions. The models differ by hydrological domain, scale, and dimensionality. Together they simulate surface water, the unsaturated zone, and groundwater on regional, floodplain, and local scales. Outputs from regional models provide boundary conditions for floodplain models, which in turn provide inputs for the local scale models. The results are interpreted based on (i) ecohydrological requirements for key species of tree and fish, and (ii) impacts on river salinity for downstream users. When combined, the models provide an integrated and interdiscplinary understanding of the hydrology and management of saline floodplains.

Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices - How numerical implementation affects the results

PubMed Central

Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

2016-01-01

Summary This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed. PMID:26679833

40 CFR 63.145 - Process wastewater provisions-test methods and procedures to determine compliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... § 63.138 of this subpart. Owners or operators conducting a design evaluation shall comply with the...) Performance tests and design evaluations for treatment processes. If design steam stripper option (§ 63.138(d)) or RCRA option (§ 63.138(h)) is selected to comply with § 63.138, neither a design evaluation nor a...

40 CFR 63.145 - Process wastewater provisions-test methods and procedures to determine compliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... § 63.138 of this subpart. Owners or operators conducting a design evaluation shall comply with the...) Performance tests and design evaluations for treatment processes. If design steam stripper option (§ 63.138(d)) or RCRA option (§ 63.138(h)) is selected to comply with § 63.138, neither a design evaluation nor a...

40 CFR 63.145 - Process wastewater provisions-test methods and procedures to determine compliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... § 63.138 of this subpart. Owners or operators conducting a design evaluation shall comply with the...) Performance tests and design evaluations for treatment processes. If design steam stripper option (§ 63.138(d)) or RCRA option (§ 63.138(h)) is selected to comply with § 63.138, neither a design evaluation nor a...

Linking dynamic patterns of neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex with decision making.

PubMed

Rich, Erin L; Stoll, Frederic M; Rudebeck, Peter H

2018-04-01

Humans and animals demonstrate extraordinary flexibility in choice behavior, particularly when deciding based on subjective preferences. We evaluate options on different scales, deliberate, and often change our minds. Little is known about the neural mechanisms that underlie these dynamic aspects of decision-making, although neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) likely plays a central role. Recent evidence from studies in macaques shows that attention modulates value responses in OFC, and that ensembles of OFC neurons dynamically signal different options during choices. When contexts change, these ensembles flexibly remap to encode the new task. Determining how these dynamic patterns emerge and relate to choices will inform models of decision-making and OFC function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Integrated Approach Using Condition Monitoring and Modeling to Investigate Wind Turbine Gearbox Design: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, S.; Guo, Y.

2015-03-01

Vibration-based condition monitoring (CM) of geared utility-scale turbine drivetrains has been used by the wind industry to help improve operation and maintenance (O&M) practices, increase turbine availability, and reduce O&M cost. This study is a new endeavor that integrates the vibration-based CM technique with wind turbine gearbox modeling to investigate various gearbox design options. A teamof researchers performed vibration-based CM measurements on a damaged wind turbine gearbox with a classic configuration, (i.e., one planetary stage and two parallel stages). We observed that the acceleration amplitudes around the first-order sidebands of the intermediate stage gear set meshing frequency were much lowermore » than that measured at the high-speed gear set, and similar difference wasalso observed in a healthy gearbox. One factor for a reduction at the intermediate stage gear set is hypothesized to be the soft sun-spline configuration in the test gearbox. To evaluate this hypothesis, a multibody dynamic model of the healthy test gearbox was first developed and validated. Relative percent difference of the first-order sidebands--of the high-speed and intermediate stagegear-meshing frequencies--in the soft and the rigid sun spline configurations were compared. The results verified that the soft sun-spline configuration can reduce the sidebands of the intermediate stage gear set and also the locating bearing loads. The study demonstrates that combining vibration-based CM with appropriate modeling can provide insights for evaluating different wind turbinegearbox design options.« less

Option pricing for stochastic volatility model with infinite activity Lévy jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

2016-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to apply the stochastic volatility model driven by infinite activity Lévy processes to option pricing which displays infinite activity jumps behaviors and time varying volatility that is consistent with the phenomenon observed in underlying asset dynamics. We specially pay attention to three typical Lévy processes that replace the compound Poisson jumps in Bates model, aiming to capture the leptokurtic feature in asset returns and volatility clustering effect in returns variance. By utilizing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform technique, the closed form formula of option pricing can be derived. The intelligent global optimization search algorithm called Differential Evolution is introduced into the above highly dimensional models for parameters calibration so as to improve the calibration quality of fitted option models. Finally, we perform empirical researches using both time series data and options data on financial markets to illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Dialysis-associated steal syndrome (DASS).

PubMed

Mohamed, Ahmed S; Peden, Eric K

2017-03-06

In this article, we will review the clinical symptoms of dialysis access steal syndrome (DASS), evaluation, treatment options, and our approach and treatment algorithm. We reviewed the literature discussing different aspects of DASS including its epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical presentation, evaluation and management options. DASS is the most dreaded complication of access surgery. Although the incidence is low, all providers caring for dialysis patients should be aware of this problem. Symptoms can range from mild to limb threatening. Although various tests are available, the diagnosis of DASS remains a clinical one and requires thoughtful management to have the best outcomes. Multiple treatment options exist for steal. We present diagnostic evaluation and management algorithm.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenning, B. D.

1995-01-01

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Mathematical Modeling Of Life-Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seshan, Panchalam K.; Ganapathi, Balasubramanian; Jan, Darrell L.; Ferrall, Joseph F.; Rohatgi, Naresh K.

1994-01-01

Generic hierarchical model of life-support system developed to facilitate comparisons of options in design of system. Model represents combinations of interdependent subsystems supporting microbes, plants, fish, and land animals (including humans). Generic model enables rapid configuration of variety of specific life support component models for tradeoff studies culminating in single system design. Enables rapid evaluation of effects of substituting alternate technologies and even entire groups of technologies and subsystems. Used to synthesize and analyze life-support systems ranging from relatively simple, nonregenerative units like aquariums to complex closed-loop systems aboard submarines or spacecraft. Model, called Generic Modular Flow Schematic (GMFS), coded in such chemical-process-simulation languages as Aspen Plus and expressed as three-dimensional spreadsheet.

A cost-benefit analysis of produced water management opportunities in selected unconventional oil and gas plays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsters, P.; Macknick, J.; Bazilian, M.; Newmark, R. L.

2013-12-01

Unconventional oil and gas production in North America has grown enormously over the past decade. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has made production from shale and other unconventional resources economically attractive for oil and gas operators, but has also resulted in concerns over potential water use and pollution issues. Hydraulic fracturing operations must manage large volumes of water on both the front end as well as the back end of operations, as significant amounts of water are coproduced with hydrocarbons. This water--often called flowback or produced water--can contain chemicals from the hydraulic fracturing fluid, salts dissolved from the source rock, various minerals, volatile organic chemicals, and radioactive constituents, all of which pose potential management, safety, and public health issues. While the long-term effects of hydraulic fracturing on aquifers, drinking water supplies, and surface water resources are still being assessed, the immediate impacts of produced water on local infrastructure and water supplies are readily evident. Produced water management options are often limited to underground injection, disposal at centralized treatment facilities, or recycling for future hydraulic fracturing operations. The costs of treatment, transport, and recycling are heavily dependent on local regulations, existing infrastructure, and technologies utilized. Produced water treatment costs also change over time during energy production as the quality of the produced water often changes. To date there is no publicly available model that evaluates the cost tradeoffs associated with different produced water management techniques in different regions. This study addresses that gap by characterizing the volume, qualities, and temporal dynamics of produced water in several unconventional oil and gas plays; evaluating potential produced water management options, including reuse and recycling; and assessing how hydraulic fracturing and produced water issues relate to the larger water-energy nexus. Specifically, this study develops a play-specific model to compare the decision factors and costs involved in managing produced water. For example, when transport distances to a wastewater disposal site are far enough, options for recycling water become more favorable, depending on the characteristics of each play. This model can provide policymakers and other interested parties with cost estimates of different water management options, including a better understanding of the costs and opportunities associated with recycling produced water. This work provides a cross-play assessment of produced water management options and costs and could serve as the foundation for more detailed analyses of opportunities to minimize hydraulic fracturing's impacts on freshwater resources.

Northwest Energy Policy Project. Energy conservation policy evaluation: study module IA. Final report. Volume I. Summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berney, R.E.; Butcher, W.R.; Carter, L.F.

1977-01-01

This summary report identifies potential energy conservation measures and evaluates measures and policy options not likely to be suitable for adoption in the Pacific Northwest. Potential and incentives for energy conservation are specifically identified in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors and through urban design. Selection of preferable policies and estimation of response to policies are next discussed. Finally, a computer impact model for calculating energy savings and changes in the levels of residuals resulting from energy conservation activities is discussed. (MCW)

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

Evaluation of Unix-Based Integrated Office Automation Products.

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

recipient preferences of networked UNIX users. An e-mail directory contains the preferred applications (e.g., FrameMaker , Excel) for each user, and e...Future Not Available (B) FrameMaker (UNIX) E-Optional I/E-Standard Future* (B) Interleaf (UNIX) I/E-Optional I/E-Standard Future* (B) IslandWrite Not...Optional Future Not Available DXF I-Optional Future Not Available (B) EPSI I-Standard Not Available Future (B) FrameMaker (MIF) E-Optional I/E-Standard Not

Is diabetes and hypertension screening worthwhile in resource-limited settings? An economic evaluation based on a pilot of a Package of Essential Non-communicable disease interventions in Bhutan.

PubMed

Dukpa, Wangchuk; Teerawattananon, Yot; Rattanavipapong, Waranya; Srinonprasert, Varalak; Tongsri, Watsamon; Kingkaew, Pritaporn; Yothasamut, Jomkwan; Wangchuk, Dorji; Dorji, Tandin; Wangmo, Kinzang

2015-10-01

In response to a lack of cost-effective data on screening and early treatment of diabetes and hypertension in resource-limited settings, a model-based economic evaluation was performed on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Package of Essential Non-communicable (PEN) disease interventions for primary health care in Bhutan. Both local and international data were applied in the model in order to derive lifetime costs and outcomes resulting from the early treatment of diabetes and hypertension. The results indicate that the current screening option (where people who are overweight, obese or aged 40 years or older who visit primary care facilities are screened for diabetes and hypertension) represents good value for money compared to 'no screening'. The study findings also indicate that expanding opportunistic screening (70% coverage of the target population) to universal screening (where 100% of the target population are screened), is likely to be even more cost-effective. From the sensitivity analysis, the value of the screening options remains the same when disease prevalence varies. Therefore, applying this model to other healthcare settings is warranted, since disease prevalence is one of the major factors in affecting the cost-effectiveness results of screening programs. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Improved system integration for integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems.

PubMed

Frey, H Christopher; Zhu, Yunhua

2006-03-01

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems are a promising technology for power generation. They include an air separation unit (ASU), a gasification system, and a gas turbine combined cycle power block, and feature competitive efficiency and lower emissions compared to conventional power generation technology. IGCC systems are not yet in widespread commercial use and opportunities remain to improve system feasibility via improved process integration. A process simulation model was developed for IGCC systems with alternative types of ASU and gas turbine integration. The model is applied to evaluate integration schemes involving nitrogen injection, air extraction, and combinations of both, as well as different ASU pressure levels. The optimal nitrogen injection only case in combination with an elevated pressure ASU had the highest efficiency and power output and approximately the lowest emissions per unit output of all cases considered, and thus is a recommended design option. The optimal combination of air extraction coupled with nitrogen injection had slightly worse efficiency, power output, and emissions than the optimal nitrogen injection only case. Air extraction alone typically produced lower efficiency, lower power output, and higher emissions than all other cases. The recommended nitrogen injection only case is estimated to provide annualized cost savings compared to a nonintegrated design. Process simulation modeling is shown to be a useful tool for evaluation and screening of technology options.

A theoretical model to explain the smart technology adoption behaviors of elder consumers (Elderadopt).

PubMed

Golant, Stephen M

2017-08-01

A growing global population of older adults is potential consumers of a category of products referred to as smart technologies, but also known as telehealth, telecare, information and communication technologies, robotics, and gerontechnology. This paper constructs a theoretical model to explain whether older people will adopt smart technology options to cope with their discrepant individual or environmental circumstances, thereby enabling them to age in place. Its proposed constructs and relationships are drawn from multiple academic disciplines and professional specialties, and an extensive literature focused on the factors influencing the acceptance of these smart technologies. It specifically examines whether older adults will substitute these new technologies for traditional coping solutions that rely on informal and formal care assistance and low technology related products. The model argues that older people will more positively evaluate smart technology alternatives when they feel more stressed because of their unmet needs, have greater resilience (stronger perceptions of self-efficacy and greater openness to new information), and are more strongly persuaded by their sources of outside messaging (external information) and their past experiences (internal information). It proposes that older people distinguish three attributes of these coping options when they appraise them: perceived efficaciousness, perceived usability, and perceived collateral damages. The more positively older people evaluate these attributes, the more likely that they will adopt these smart technology products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Placing the power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers - taking the next step.

PubMed

Nelson, Rohan; Howden, Mark; Hayman, Peter

2013-07-30

This paper explores heuristic methods with potential to place the analytical power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers. The complexity of real options analysis has led to patchy or ephemeral adoption even by corporate managers familiar with the financial-market origins of valuation methods. Intuitively accessible methods for estimating the value of real options have begun to evolve, but their evaluation has mostly been limited to researcher-driven applications. In this paper we work closely with Bush Heritage Australia to evaluate the potential of real options analysis to support the intuitive judgement of conservation estate managers in covenanting land with uncertain future conservation value due to climate change. The results show that modified decision trees have potential to estimate the option value of covenanting individual properties while time and ongoing research resolves their future conservation value. Complementing this, Luehrman's option space has potential to assist managers with limited budgets to increase the portfolio value of multiple properties with different conservation attributes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerating Drug Development: Antiviral Therapies for Emerging Viruses as a Model.

PubMed

Everts, Maaike; Cihlar, Tomas; Bostwick, J Robert; Whitley, Richard J

2017-01-06

Drug discovery and development is a lengthy and expensive process. Although no one, simple, single solution can significantly accelerate this process, steps can be taken to avoid unnecessary delays. Using the development of antiviral therapies as a model, we describe options for acceleration that cover target selection, assay development and high-throughput screening, hit confirmation, lead identification and development, animal model evaluations, toxicity studies, regulatory issues, and the general drug discovery and development infrastructure. Together, these steps could result in accelerated timelines for bringing antiviral therapies to market so they can treat emerging infections and reduce human suffering.

Modeling trade-offs between fire threat reduction and late-seral forest structure.

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Susan Stevens Hummel; James K. Agee

2005-01-01

Evaluating the effects of managing for one forest resource in terms of associated impacts on other resources is not easy. Yet methods to identify potential trade-offs among forest resources are necessary to inform people about the implications of management options on public land. This paper uses a case study from a forest reserve in the northwestern United States to...

Dispersant Effectiveness, In-Situ Droplet Size Distribution and Numerical Modeling to Assess Subsurface Dispersant Injection as a Deepwater Blowout Oil Spill Response Option and Evaluation of Oil Fluorescence Characteristics to Improve Forensic Response Tools

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes two projects covered under an Interagency Agreement between the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Department of Fisheries and...

Resource Sharing and Public Education. Project Evaluation Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leton, Donald A.

Two exemplary projects developed to maximize student options through the sharing of facilities, programs, and options were evaluated. The Remedial-Developmental Program developed a communications network between McKinley and Roosevelt High Schools and Kapiolani Community College to share student information and use it for individual student…

Advanced approach to the analysis of a series of in-situ nuclear forward scattering experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrba, Vlastimil; Procházka, Vít; Smrčka, David; Miglierini, Marcel

2017-03-01

This study introduces a sequential fitting procedure as a specific approach to nuclear forward scattering (NFS) data evaluation. Principles and usage of this advanced evaluation method are described in details and its utilization is demonstrated on NFS in-situ investigations of fast processes. Such experiments frequently consist of hundreds of time spectra which need to be evaluated. The introduced procedure allows the analysis of these experiments and significantly decreases the time needed for the data evaluation. The key contributions of the study are the sequential use of the output fitting parameters of a previous data set as the input parameters for the next data set and the model suitability crosscheck option of applying the procedure in ascending and descending directions of the data sets. Described fitting methodology is beneficial for checking of model validity and reliability of obtained results.

Larval Zebrafish Model for FDA-Approved Drug Repositioning for Tobacco Dependence Treatment

PubMed Central

Cousin, Margot A.; Ebbert, Jon O.; Wiinamaki, Amanda R.; Urban, Mark D.; Argue, David P.; Ekker, Stephen C.; Klee, Eric W.

2014-01-01

Cigarette smoking remains the most preventable cause of death and excess health care costs in the United States, and is a leading cause of death among alcoholics. Long-term tobacco abstinence rates are low, and pharmacotherapeutic options are limited. Repositioning medications approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may efficiently provide clinicians with new treatment options. We developed a drug-repositioning paradigm using larval zebrafish locomotion and established predictive clinical validity using FDA-approved smoking cessation therapeutics. We evaluated 39 physician-vetted medications for nicotine-induced locomotor activation blockade. We further evaluated candidate medications for altered ethanol response, as well as in combination with varenicline for nicotine-response attenuation. Six medications specifically inhibited the nicotine response. Among this set, apomorphine and topiramate blocked both nicotine and ethanol responses. Both positively interact with varenicline in the Bliss Independence test, indicating potential synergistic interactions suggesting these are candidates for translation into Phase II clinical trials for smoking cessation. PMID:24658307

Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing V: Multiscaling hedging and implied volatility smiles under the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian

2011-05-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.

Study design options in evaluating gene-environment interactions: practical considerations for a planned case-control study of pediatric leukemia.

PubMed

Goodman, Michael; Dana Flanders, W

2007-04-01

We compare methodological approaches for evaluating gene-environment interaction using a planned study of pediatric leukemia as a practical example. We considered three design options: a full case-control study (Option I), a case-only study (Option II), and a partial case-control study (Option III), in which information on controls is limited to environmental exposure only. For each design option we determined its ability to measure the main effects of environmental factor E and genetic factor G, and the interaction between E and G. Using the leukemia study example, we calculated sample sizes required to detect and odds ratio (OR) of 2.0 for E alone, an OR of 10 for G alone and an interaction G x E of 3. Option I allows measuring both main effects and interaction, but requires a total sample size of 1,500 cases and 1,500 controls. Option II allows measuring only interaction, but requires just 121 cases. Option III allows calculating the main effect of E, and interaction, but not the main effect of G, and requires a total of 156 cases and 133 controls. In this case, the partial case-control study (Option III) appears to be more efficient with respect to its ability to answer the research questions for the amount of resources required. The design options considered in this example are not limited to observational epidemiology and may be applicable in studies of pharmacogenomics, survivorship, and other areas of pediatric ALL research.

A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

path integral approach to closed form pricing formulas in the Heston framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, Damiaan; Wouters, Michiel; Tempere, Jacques; Foulon, Sven

2008-03-01

We present a path integral approach for finding closed form formulas for option prices in the framework of the Heston model. The first model for determining option prices was the Black-Scholes model, which assumed that the logreturn followed a Wiener process with a given drift and constant volatility. To provide a realistic description of the market, the Black-Scholes results must be extended to include stochastic volatility. This is achieved by the Heston model, which assumes that the volatility follows a mean reverting square root process. Current applications of the Heston model are hampered by the unavailability of fast numerical methods, due to a lack of closed-form formulae. Therefore the search for closed form solutions is an essential step before the qualitatively better stochastic volatility models will be used in practice. To attain this goal we outline a simplified path integral approach yielding straightforward results for vanilla Heston options with correlation. Extensions to barrier options and other path-dependent option are discussed, and the new derivation is compared to existing results obtained from alternative path-integral approaches (Dragulescu, Kleinert).

Helping Working Parents: Child Care Options for Business.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Administration, Raleigh.

Seven models representing the existing range of options of employer involvement in day care are described in this paper. The range of options are grouped into two categories: (1) company owned, operated, or subsidized child day care; and (2) employee assistance services, benefits, and policies. The models included in the first category are the…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klimsiak, Tomasz, E-mail: tomas@mat.umk.pl; Rozkosz, Andrzej, E-mail: rozkosz@mat.umk.pl

In the paper we consider the problem of valuation of American options written on dividend-paying assets whose price dynamics follow the classical multidimensional Black and Scholes model. We provide a general early exercise premium representation formula for options with payoff functions which are convex or satisfy mild regularity assumptions. Examples include index options, spread options, call on max options, put on min options, multiply strike options and power-product options. In the proof of the formula we exploit close connections between the optimal stopping problems associated with valuation of American options, obstacle problems and reflected backward stochastic differential equations.

Option price and market instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2017-04-01

An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

Matriculation Evaluation: Monographs on Designs from the Local Research Options Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1992

In November 1989, nine research designs developed to assist local colleges in the evaluation of their matriculation activities were disseminated to the California community colleges. These designs, created as part of the Local Research Options Project, focused on measuring the effects of the colleges' matriculation activities on student…

78 FR 10249 - Environmental Impact Statement: Will and Kankakee Counties, IL and Lake County, IN

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-13

... design concepts. Alternatives to be evaluated will include (1) taking no action and (2) evaluating... design issues in a way that does not materially increase overall impacts. The primary environmental... or design options within the selected corridor, financing options, and construction sequencing...

Evaluation of a Sustainable Remediation Option: Beneficial Reuse of Petroleum-Contaminated Sediment as an Energy Source

EPA Science Inventory

The characteristics of petroleum-contaminated sediment (PCS) have been evaluated to assess whether the practice of its beneficial reuse as a sole or supplemental energy source is sustainable relative to other sediment remediation options such as monitored natural recovery (MNR), ...

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative analyses of spent nuclear fuel transport modal options: Transport options under existing site constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brentlinger, L.A.; Hofmann, P.L.; Peterson, R.W.

1989-08-01

The movement of nuclear waste can be accomplished by various transport modal options involving different types of vehicles, transport casks, transport routes, and intermediate intermodal transfer facilities. A series of systems studies are required to evaluate modal/intermodal spent fuel transportation options in a consistent fashion. This report provides total life-cycle cost and life-cycle dose estimates for a series of transport modal options under existing site constraints. 14 refs., 7 figs., 28 tabs.

Cost-effectiveness of Chagas disease screening in Latin American migrants at primary health-care centres in Europe: a Markov model analysis.

PubMed

Requena-Méndez, Ana; Bussion, Sheila; Aldasoro, Edelweiss; Jackson, Yves; Angheben, Andrea; Moore, David; Pinazo, Maria-Jesús; Gascón, Joaquim; Muñoz, Jose; Sicuri, Elisa

2017-04-01

Chagas disease is currently prevalent in European countries hosting large communities from Latin America. Whether asymptomatic individuals at risk of Chagas disease living in Europe should be screened and treated accordingly is unclear. We performed an economic evaluation of systematic Chagas disease screening of the Latin American population attending primary care centres in Europe. We constructed a decision tree model that compared the test option (screening of asymptomatic individuals, treatment, and follow-up of positive cases) with the no-test option (screening, treating, and follow-up of symptomatic individuals). The decision tree included a Markov model with five states, related to the chronic stage of the disease: indeterminate, cardiomyopathy, gastrointestinal, response to treatment, and death. The model started with a target population of 100 000 individuals, of which 4·2% (95% CI 2·2-6·8) were estimated to be infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between test and no-test options. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses (Monte Carlo simulations) were performed. In the deterministic analysis, total costs referred to 100 000 individuals in the test and no-test option were €30 903 406 and €6 597 403 respectively, with a difference of €24 306 003. The respective number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained in the test and no-test option were 61 820·82 and 57 354·42. The ICER was €5442. In the probabilistic analysis, total costs for the test and no-test option were €32 163 649 (95% CI 31 263 705-33 063 593) and €6 904 764 (6 703 258-7 106 270), respectively. The respective number of QALYs gained was 64 634·35 (95% CI 62 809·6-66 459·1) and 59 875·73 (58 191·18-61 560·28). The difference in QALYs gained between the test and no test options was 4758·62 (95% CI 4618·42-4898·82). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €6840·75 (95% CI 2545-2759) per QALY gained for a treatment efficacy of 20% and €4243 per QALY gained for treatment efficacy of 50%. Even with a reduction in Chagas disease prevalence to 0·05% and with large variations in all the parameters, the test option would still be more cost-effective than the no-test option (less than €30000 per QALY). Screening for Chagas disease in asymptomatic Latin American adults living in Europe is a cost-effective strategy. Findings of our model provide an important element to support the implementation of T cruzi screening programmes at primary health centres in European countries hosting Latin American migrants. European Commission 7th Framework Program. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Biomass resources for energy in Ohio: The OH-MARKAL modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakya, Bibhakar

The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have indicated that human activities are directly responsible for a significant portion of global warming trends. In response to the growing concerns regarding climate change and efforts to create a sustainable energy future, biomass energy has come to the forefront as a clean and sustainable energy resource. Biomass energy resources are environmentally clean and carbon neutral with net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, since CO2 is absorbed or sequestered from the atmosphere during the plant growth. Hence, biomass energy mitigates greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that would otherwise be added to the environment by conventional fossil fuels, such as coal. The use of biomass resources for energy is even more relevant in Ohio, as the power industry is heavily based on coal, providing about 90 percent of the state's total electricity while only 50 percent of electricity comes from coal at the national level. The burning of coal for electricity generation results in substantial GHG emissions and environmental pollution, which are responsible for global warming and acid rain. Ohio is currently one of the top emitters of GHG in the nation. This dissertation research examines the potential use of biomass resources by analyzing key economic, environmental, and policy issues related to the energy needs of Ohio over a long term future (2001-2030). Specifically, the study develops a dynamic linear programming model (OH-MARKAL) to evaluate biomass cofiring as an option in select coal power plants (both existing and new) to generate commercial electricity in Ohio. The OH-MARKAL model is based on the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) framework. Using extensive data on the power industry and biomass resources of Ohio, the study has developed the first comprehensive power sector model for Ohio. Hence, the model can serve as an effective tool for Ohio's energy planning, since it evaluates economic and environmental consequences of alternative energy scenarios for the future. The model can also be used to estimate the relative merits of various energy technologies. By developing OH-MARKAL as an empirical model, this study evaluates the prospects of biomass cofiring in Ohio to generate commercial electricity. As cofiring utilizes the existing infrastructure, it is an attractive option for utilizing biomass energy resources, with the objective of replacing non-renewable fuel (coal) with renewable and cleaner fuel (biomass). It addresses two key issues: first, the importance of diversifying the fuel resource base for the power industry; and second, the need to increase the use of biomass or renewable resources in Ohio. The results of the various model scenarios developed in this study indicate that policy interventions are necessary to make biomass co-firing competitive with coal, and that about 7 percent of electricity can be generated by using biomass feedstock in Ohio. This study recommends mandating an optimal level of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for Ohio to increase renewable electricity generation in the state. To set a higher goal of RPS than 7 percent level, Ohio needs to include other renewable sources such as wind, solar or hydro in its electricity generation portfolio. The results also indicate that the marginal price of electricity must increase by four fold to mitigate CO2 emissions 15 percent below the 2002 level, suggesting Ohio will also need to consider and invest in clean coal technologies and examine the option of carbon sequestration. Hence, Ohio's energy strategy should include a mix of domestic renewable energy options, energy efficiency, energy conservation, clean coal technology, and carbon sequestration options. It would seem prudent for Ohio to become proactive in reducing CO2 emissions so that it will be ready to deal with any future federal mandates, otherwise the consequences could be detrimental to the state's economy.

Fatty liver promotes fibrosis in monkeys consuming high fructose.

PubMed

Cydylo, Michael A; Davis, Ashley T; Kavanagh, Kylie

2017-02-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver diseases (NAFLD) are related to development of liver fibrosis which currently has few therapeutic options. Rodent models of NAFLD inadequately model the fibrotic aspects of the disease and fail to demonstrate the spectrum of cardiometabolic diseases without genetic manipulation. This study aimed to document a monkey model of fatty liver and fibrosis, which naturally develop cardiometabolic disease pathophysiologies. Twenty-seven cynomolgus monkeys (Macaca fascicularis) fed diets either low or high in simple carbohydrates, supplied as fructose [control and high-fructose diet (HRr)], on low-fat, cholesterol-free background were studied. The HFr was consumed for up to 7 years, and liver tissue was histologically evaluated for fat and fibrosis extent. The HFr diet increased steatosis, and its extent was related to duration of fructose exposure. Lipid droplet size also increased with HFr duration; however, compared with control, the lipid droplets were smaller on average. Fibrosis extent was significantly greater with fructose feeding and was predicted by fructose exposure, extent of fatty liver, and age. These data are the first to demonstrate that high-carbohydrate diets alone can generate both liver fat and fibrosis and thus allow further study of mechanisms and therapeutic options in the translational animal model. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Responsibility, guilt, and decision under risk.

PubMed

Mancini, Francesco; Gangemi, Amelia

2003-12-01

We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.

Modeling rheumatoid arthritis using different techniques - a review of model construction and results.

PubMed

Scholz, Stefan; Mittendorf, Thomas

2014-12-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, inflammatory disease with severe effects on the functional ability of patients. Due to the prevalence of 0.5 to 1.0 percent in western countries, new treatment options are a major concern for decision makers with regard to their budget impact. In this context, cost-effectiveness analyses are a helpful tool to evaluate new treatment options for reimbursement schemes. To analyze and compare decision analytic modeling techniques and to explore their use in RA with regard to their advantages and shortcomings. A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMED and 58 studies reporting health economics decision models were analyzed with regard to the modeling technique used. From the 58 reviewed publications, we found 13 reporting decision tree-analysis, 25 (cohort) Markov models, 13 publications on individual sampling methods (ISM) and seven discrete event simulations (DES). Thereby 26 studies were identified as presenting independently developed models and 32 models as adoptions. The modeling techniques used were found to differ in their complexity and in the number of treatment options compared. Methodological features are presented in the article and a comprehensive overview of the cost-effectiveness estimates is given in Additional files 1 and 2. When compared to the other modeling techniques, ISM and DES have advantages in the coverage of patient heterogeneity and, additionally, DES is capable to model more complex treatment sequences and competing risks in RA-patients. Nevertheless, the availability of sufficient data is necessary to avoid assumptions in ISM and DES exercises, thereby enabling biased results. Due to the different settings, time frames and interventions in the reviewed publications, no direct comparison of modeling techniques was applicable. The results from other indications suggest that incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs) do not differ significantly between Markov and DES models, but DES is able to report more outcome parameters. Given a sufficient data supply, DES is the modeling technique of choice when modeling cost-effectiveness in RA. Otherwise transparency on the data inputs is crucial for valid results and to inform decision makers about possible biases. With regard to ICERs, Markov models might provide similar estimates as more advanced modeling techniques.

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable diversification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting water consumption habits for seven arsenic-safe water options in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Inauen, Jennifer; Tobias, Robert; Mosler, Hans-Joachim

2013-05-01

In Bangladesh, 20 million people are at the risk of developing arsenicosis because of excessive arsenic intake. Despite increased awareness, many of the implemented arsenic-safe water options are not being sufficiently used by the population. This study investigated the role of social-cognitive factors in explaining the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. Eight hundred seventy-two randomly selected households in six arsenic-affected districts of rural Bangladesh, which had access to an arsenic-safe water option, were interviewed using structured face-to-face interviews in November 2009. Habitual use of arsenic-safe water options, severity, vulnerability, affective and instrumental attitudes, injunctive and descriptive norms, self-efficacy, and coping planning were measured. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Linear regression revealed that self-efficacy (B = 0.42, SE = .03, p < .001), the instrumental attitude towards the safe water option (B = 0.24, SE = .04, p < .001), the affective attitude towards contaminated tube wells (B = -0.04, SE = .02, p = .024), vulnerability (B = -0.20, SE = .02, p < .001), as well as injunctive (B = 0.08, SE = 0.04, p = .049) and descriptive norms (B = 0.34, SE = .03, p < .001) primarily explained the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options (R2 = 0.688). This model proved highly generalizable to all seven arsenic-safe water options investigated, even though habitual use of single options were predicted on the basis of parameters estimated without these options. This general model for the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options may prove useful to predict other water consumption habits. Behavior-change interventions are derived from the model to promote the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options.

Working-memory load and temporal myopia in dynamic decision making.

PubMed

Worthy, Darrell A; Otto, A Ross; Maddox, W Todd

2012-11-01

We examined the role of working memory (WM) in dynamic decision making by having participants perform decision-making tasks under single-task or dual-task conditions. In 2 experiments participants performed dynamic decision-making tasks in which they chose 1 of 2 options on each trial. The decreasing option always gave a larger immediate reward but caused future rewards for both options to decrease. The increasing option always gave a smaller immediate reward but caused future rewards for both options to increase. In each experiment we manipulated the reward structure such that the decreasing option was the optimal choice in 1 condition and the increasing option was the optimal choice in the other condition. Behavioral results indicated that dual-task participants selected the immediately rewarding decreasing option more often, and single-task participants selected the increasing option more often, regardless of which option was optimal. Thus, dual-task participants performed worse on 1 type of task but better on the other type. Modeling results showed that single-task participants' data were most often best fit by a win-stay, lose-shift (WSLS) rule-based model that tracked differences across trials, and dual-task participants' data were most often best fit by a Softmax reinforcement learning model that tracked recency-weighted average rewards for each option. This suggests that manipulating WM load affects the degree to which participants focus on the immediate versus delayed consequences of their actions and whether they employ a rule-based WSLS strategy, but it does not necessarily affect how well people weigh the immediate versus delayed benefits when determining the long-term utility of each option.

77 FR 37617 - Updating OSHA Standards Based on National Consensus Standards; Head Protection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-22

... provisions in the 2009 edition permitting optional testing for helmets worn in the backwards position (``reverse wearing''), optional testing for helmets at colder temperatures than provided in previous editions, and optional testing for the high- visibility coloring of helmets. If manufacturers choose to evaluate...

Interim Policy Options for Commercialization of Solar Heating and Cooling Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bezdek, Roger

This interim report reviews the major incentive policy options available to accelerate market penetration of solar heating and cooling (SHAC) systems. Feasible policy options designed to overcome existing barriers to commercial acceptance and market penetration are identified and evaluated. The report is divided into seven sections, each dealing…

EVALUATION OF POLLUTION PREVENTION OPTIONS TO REDUCE STYRENE EMISSIONS FROM FIBER-REINFORCED PLASTIC OPEN MOLDING PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

Pollution prevention (P2) options to reduce styrene emissions, such as new materials, and application equipment, are commercially available to the operators of open molding processes. However, information is lacking on the emissions reduction that these options can achieve. To me...

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues.

PubMed

Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng, Huan; Yu, Danlin

2010-11-01

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Alarm Thresholds for Process Monitoring Data under Different Assumptions about the Data Generating Mechanism

DOE PAGES

Burr, Tom; Hamada, Michael S.; Howell, John; ...

2013-01-01

Process monitoring (PM) for nuclear safeguards sometimes requires estimation of thresholds corresponding to small false alarm rates. Threshold estimation dates to the 1920s with the Shewhart control chart; however, because possible new roles for PM are being evaluated in nuclear safeguards, it is timely to consider modern model selection options in the context of threshold estimation. One of the possible new PM roles involves PM residuals, where a residual is defined as residual = data − prediction. This paper reviews alarm threshold estimation, introduces model selection options, and considers a range of assumptions regarding the data-generating mechanism for PM residuals.more » Two PM examples from nuclear safeguards are included to motivate the need for alarm threshold estimation. The first example involves mixtures of probability distributions that arise in solution monitoring, which is a common type of PM. The second example involves periodic partial cleanout of in-process inventory, leading to challenging structure in the time series of PM residuals.« less

Embodied energy comparison of surface water and groundwater supply options.

PubMed

Mo, Weiwei; Zhang, Qiong; Mihelcic, James R; Hokanson, David R

2011-11-01

The embodied energy associated with water provision comprises an important part of water management, and is important when considering sustainability. In this study, an input-output based hybrid analysis integrated with structural path analysis was used to develop an embodied energy model. The model was applied to a groundwater supply system (Kalamazoo, Michigan) and a surface water supply system (Tampa, Florida). The two systems evaluated have comparable total energy embodiments based on unit water production. However, the onsite energy use of the groundwater supply system is approximately 27% greater than the surface water supply system. This was primarily due to more extensive pumping requirements. On the other hand, the groundwater system uses approximately 31% less indirect energy than the surface water system, mainly because of fewer chemicals used for treatment. The results from this and other studies were also compiled to provide a relative comparison of embodied energy for major water supply options. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preclinical evaluation of radiation and systemic, RGD-targeted, adeno-associated virus phage-TNF gene therapy in a mouse model of spontaneously metastatic melanoma.

PubMed

Quinn, T J; Healy, N; Sara, A; Maggi, E; Claros, C S; Kabarriti, R; Scandiuzzi, L; Liu, L; Gorecka, J; Adem, A; Basu, I; Yuan, Z; Guha, C

2017-01-01

The incidence of melanoma in the United States continues to rise, with metastatic lesions notoriously recalcitrant to therapy. There are limited effective treatment options available and a great need for more effective therapies that can be rapidly integrated in the clinic. In this study, we demonstrate that the combination of RGD-targeted adeno-associated virus phage (RGD-AAVP-TNF) with hypofractionated radiation therapy results in synergistic inhibition of primary syngeneic B16 melanoma in a C57 mouse model. Furthermore, this combination appeared to modify the tumor microenvironment, resulting in decreased Tregs in the draining LN and increased tumor-associated macrophages within the primary tumor. Finally, there appeared to be a reduction in metastatic potential and a prolongation of overall survival in the combined treatment group. These results indicate the use of targeted TNF gene therapy vector with radiation treatment could be a valuable treatment option for patients with metastatic melanoma.

Near Earth Object (NEO) Mitigation Options Using Exploration Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold William; Baysinger, Mike; Crane, Tracie; Capizzo, Pete; Sutherlin, Steven; Dankanich, John; Woodcock, Gordon; Edlin, George; Rushing, Johnny; Fabisinski, Leo;

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollikkathara, Naushad, E-mail: naushadkp@gmail.co; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

2010-11-15

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to formmore » a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.« less

24 CFR 3285.503 - Optional appliances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Optional Features § 3285.503 Optional... Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards in this chapter. (3) When the vent exhausts through the...

24 CFR 3285.503 - Optional appliances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Optional Features § 3285.503 Optional... Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards in this chapter. (3) When the vent exhausts through the...

24 CFR 3285.503 - Optional appliances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Optional Features § 3285.503 Optional... Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards in this chapter. (3) When the vent exhausts through the...

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.

PubMed

Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

2010-05-01

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

PubMed

Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

2015-05-01

This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

An Interactive Computer Program for Assessing and Using Multiattribute Utility Functions

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-01

involved evaluating five options for dealing with the question of legalizing prostitution in the Boston area. These options were strict prohibition...MUFCAP Has 69 Been Applied 5.4.1 Evaluating Health Plans 69 5.4.2 Evaluating Policies for Dealing with 69 Prostitution in the Boston...toleration or benign neglect, regula- tion of prostitution , licensing of individual prostitutes and decriminalization. The attributes ware chosen to

Tumor-on-a-chip platforms for assessing nanoparticle-based cancer therapy.

PubMed

Wang, Yimin; Cuzzucoli, Fabio; Escobar, Andres; Lu, Siming; Liang, Liguo; Wang, ShuQi

2018-08-17

Cancer has become the most prevalent cause of deaths, placing a huge economic and healthcare burden worldwide. Nanoparticles (NPs), as a key component of nanomedicine, provide alternative options for promoting the efficacy of cancer therapy. Current conventional cancer models have limitations in predicting the effects of various cancer treatments. To overcome these limitations, biomimetic and novel 'tumor-on-a-chip' platforms have emerged with other innovative biomedical engineering methods that enable the evaluation of NP-based cancer therapy. In this review, we first describe cancer models for evaluation of NP-based cancer therapy techniques, and then present the latest advances in 'tumor-on-a-chip' platforms that can potentially facilitate clinical translation of NP-based cancer therapies.

A Systems Approach to Designing Effective Clinical Trials Using Simulations

PubMed Central

Fusaro, Vincent A.; Patil, Prasad; Chi, Chih-Lin; Contant, Charles F.; Tonellato, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Background Pharmacogenetics in warfarin clinical trials have failed to show a significant benefit compared to standard clinical therapy. This study demonstrates a computational framework to systematically evaluate pre-clinical trial design of target population, pharmacogenetic algorithms, and dosing protocols to optimize primary outcomes. Methods and Results We programmatically created an end-to-end framework that systematically evaluates warfarin clinical trial designs. The framework includes options to create a patient population, multiple dosing strategies including genetic-based and non-genetic clinical-based, multiple dose adjustment protocols, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) modeling and international normalization ratio (INR) prediction, as well as various types of outcome measures. We validated the framework by conducting 1,000 simulations of the CoumaGen clinical trial primary endpoints. The simulation predicted a mean time in therapeutic range (TTR) of 70.6% and 72.2% (P = 0.47) in the standard and pharmacogenetic arms, respectively. Then, we evaluated another dosing protocol under the same original conditions and found a significant difference in TTR between the pharmacogenetic and standard arm (78.8% vs. 73.8%; P = 0.0065), respectively. Conclusions We demonstrate that this simulation framework is useful in the pre-clinical assessment phase to study and evaluate design options and provide evidence to optimize the clinical trial for patient efficacy and reduced risk. PMID:23261867

78 FR 42532 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License: Methods of Treating Giardiasis...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES National Institutes of Health Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License: Methods of Treating Giardiasis Using Available Compounds.../2013 filed April 22, 2013 (E-211- 2010/2-IN-05); each entitled ``Methods of Treating Giardiasis'' by...

78 FR 26794 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-08

...-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and Cell-Based Therapy for Cardiac... the field of use may be limited to ``Gene therapy and cell-based therapy for cardiac arrhythmias in...\\2+\\-activated adenylyl cyclase, as well as cardiac cells or cardiac-like cells derived from...

The 25 kW power module evolution study. Part 3: Conceptual designs for power module evolution. Volume 4: Design analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Topics covered include growth options evaluation, mass properties, attitude control and structural dynamics, contamination evaluation, berthing concepts, orbit reboost options and growth kit concepts. Systems support elements and space support equipment are reviewed with emphasis on power module operations and technology planning.

Preretirement Work Options: Evaluation Report. Volume 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Karen C.; And Others

Pre-Retirement Work Options is a demonstration project designed to develop and test alternative employment patterns for older workers in the Wisconsin Civil Service System. The program ws evaluated to determine the interest of older state workers in reducing their work hours prior to retirement as well as the impact of that reduction for those who…

Multi-mesh gear dynamics program evaluation and enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, L. S.; Pike, J.

1985-01-01

A multiple mesh gear dynamics computer program was continually developed and modified during the last four years. The program can handle epicyclic gear systems as well as single mesh systems with internal, buttress, or helical tooth forms. The following modifications were added under the current funding: variable contact friction, planet cage and ring gear rim flexibility options, user friendly options, dynamic side bands, a speed survey option and the combining of the single and multiple mesh options into one general program. The modified program was evaluated by comparing calculated values to published test data and to test data taken on a Hamilton Standard turboprop reduction gear-box. In general, the correlation between the test data and the analytical data is good.

Management implications of long-term tree growth and mortality rates: A modeling study of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) in the Brazilian Amazon

Treesearch

C.M. Free; R.M. Landis; J. Grogan; M.D. Schulze; M. Lentini; O. Dunisch; NO-VALUE

2014-01-01

Knowledge of tree age-size relationships is essential towards evaluating the sustainability of harvest regulations that include minimum diameter cutting limits and fixed-length cutting cycles. Although many tropical trees form annual growth rings and can be aged from discs or cores, destructive sampling is not always an option for valuable or threatened species. We...

The Nature of Belief-Directed Exploratory Choice in Human Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Knox, W. Bradley; Otto, A. Ross; Stone, Peter; Love, Bradley C.

2011-01-01

In non-stationary environments, there is a conflict between exploiting currently favored options and gaining information by exploring lesser-known options that in the past have proven less rewarding. Optimal decision-making in such tasks requires considering future states of the environment (i.e., planning) and properly updating beliefs about the state of the environment after observing outcomes associated with choices. Optimal belief-updating is reflective in that beliefs can change without directly observing environmental change. For example, after 10 s elapse, one might correctly believe that a traffic light last observed to be red is now more likely to be green. To understand human decision-making when rewards associated with choice options change over time, we develop a variant of the classic “bandit” task that is both rich enough to encompass relevant phenomena and sufficiently tractable to allow for ideal actor analysis of sequential choice behavior. We evaluate whether people update beliefs about the state of environment in a reflexive (i.e., only in response to observed changes in reward structure) or reflective manner. In contrast to purely “random” accounts of exploratory behavior, model-based analyses of the subjects’ choices and latencies indicate that people are reflective belief updaters. However, unlike the Ideal Actor model, our analyses indicate that people’s choice behavior does not reflect consideration of future environmental states. Thus, although people update beliefs in a reflective manner consistent with the Ideal Actor, they do not engage in optimal long-term planning, but instead myopically choose the option on every trial that is believed to have the highest immediate payoff. PMID:22319503

Effect of Endocrown Restorations with Different CAD/CAM Materials: 3D Finite Element and Weibull Analyses

PubMed Central

Ulusoy, Nuran

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of two endocrown designs and computer aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) materials on stress distribution and failure probability of restorations applied to severely damaged endodontically treated maxillary first premolar tooth (MFP). Two types of designs without and with 3 mm intraradicular extensions, endocrown (E) and modified endocrown (ME), were modeled on a 3D Finite element (FE) model of the MFP. Vitablocks Mark II (VMII), Vita Enamic (VE), and Lava Ultimate (LU) CAD/CAM materials were used for each type of design. von Mises and maximum principle values were evaluated and the Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long term failure probability. Regarding the stresses that occurred in enamel, for each group of material, ME restoration design transmitted less stress than endocrown. During normal occlusal function, the overall failure probability was minimum for ME with VMII. ME restoration design with VE was the best restorative option for premolar teeth with extensive loss of coronal structure under high occlusal loads. Therefore, ME design could be a favorable treatment option for MFPs with missing palatal cusp. Among the CAD/CAM materials tested, VMII and VE were found to be more tooth-friendly than LU. PMID:29119108

Service delivery innovation for hospital emergency management using rich organizational modelling.

PubMed

Dhakal, Yogit; Bhuiyan, Moshiur; Prasad, Pwc; Krishna, Aneesh

2018-04-01

The purpose of this article is to identify and assess service delivery issues within a hospital emergency department and propose an improved model to address them. Possible solutions and options to these issues are explored to determine the one that best fits the context. In this article, we have analysed the emergency department's organizational models through i* strategic dependency and rational modelling technique before proposing updated models that could potentially drive business process efficiencies. The results produced by the models, framework and improved patient journey in the emergency department were evaluated against the statistical data revealed from a reputed government organization related to health, to ensure that the key elements of the issues such as wait time, stay time/throughput, workload and human resource are resolved. The result of the evaluation was taken as a basis to determine the success of the project. Based on these results, the article recommends implementing the concept on actual scenario, where a positive result is achievable.

Features of a SINDA/FLUINT model of a liquid oxygen supply line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, Boris G.

1993-11-01

The modeling features used in a steady-state heat transfer problem using SINDA/FLUINT are described. The problem modeled is a 125 feet long, 3 inch diameter pipe, filled with liquid oxygen flow driven by a given pressure gradient. The pipe is fully insulated in five sections. Three sections of 1 inch thick spray-on foam and two sections of vacuum jacket. The model evaluates friction, turns losses and convection heat transfer between the fluid and the pipe wall. There is conduction through the foam insulation with temperature dependent thermal conductivity. The vacuum space is modeled with radiation and gas molecular conduction, if present, in the annular gap. Heat is transferred between the outer surface and surrounding ambient by natural convection and radiation; and, by axial conduction along the pipe and through the vacuum jacket spacers and welded seal flanges. The model makes extensive use of SINDA/FLUINT basic capabilities such as the GEN option for nodes and conductors (to generate groups of nodes or conductors), the SIV option (to generate single, temperature varying conductors), the SIM option (for multiple, temperature varying conductors) and the M HX macros for fluids (to generate strings of lumps, paths, and ties representing a diabatic duct). It calls subroutine CONTRN (returns the relative location in the G-array of a network conductor, given an actual conductor number) enabling an extensive manipulation of conductor (calculates an assignment of their values) with DO loops. Models like this illustrate to the new and even to the old SINDA/FLUINT user, features of the program that are not so obvious or known, and that are extremely handy when trying to take advantage of both, the automation of the DATA headers and make surgical modifications to specific parameters of the thermal or fluid elements in the OPERATIONS portion of the model.

Features of a SINDA/FLUINT model of a liquid oxygen supply line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmonds, Boris G.

1993-01-01

The modeling features used in a steady-state heat transfer problem using SINDA/FLUINT are described. The problem modeled is a 125 feet long, 3 inch diameter pipe, filled with liquid oxygen flow driven by a given pressure gradient. The pipe is fully insulated in five sections. Three sections of 1 inch thick spray-on foam and two sections of vacuum jacket. The model evaluates friction, turns losses and convection heat transfer between the fluid and the pipe wall. There is conduction through the foam insulation with temperature dependent thermal conductivity. The vacuum space is modeled with radiation and gas molecular conduction, if present, in the annular gap. Heat is transferred between the outer surface and surrounding ambient by natural convection and radiation; and, by axial conduction along the pipe and through the vacuum jacket spacers and welded seal flanges. The model makes extensive use of SINDA/FLUINT basic capabilities such as the GEN option for nodes and conductors (to generate groups of nodes or conductors), the SIV option (to generate single, temperature varying conductors), the SIM option (for multiple, temperature varying conductors) and the M HX macros for fluids (to generate strings of lumps, paths, and ties representing a diabatic duct). It calls subroutine CONTRN (returns the relative location in the G-array of a network conductor, given an actual conductor number) enabling an extensive manipulation of conductor (calculates an assignment of their values) with DO loops. Models like this illustrate to the new and even to the old SINDA/FLUINT user, features of the program that are not so obvious or known, and that are extremely handy when trying to take advantage of both, the automation of the DATA headers and make surgical modifications to specific parameters of the thermal or fluid elements in the OPERATIONS portion of the model.

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

PubMed Central

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2015-01-01

Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, R. B.; Statham, G.; Hopkins, R.; Chapman, J.; White, S.; Bonometti, J.; Alexander, R.; Fincher, S.; Polsgrove, T.; Kalkstein, M.

2003-01-01

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO's) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. An existing program, used to model the NE0 threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NE0 as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NE0 threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Emotion in Action: A Predictive Processing Perspective and Theoretical Synthesis

PubMed Central

Ridderinkhof, K. Richard

2017-01-01

Starting from a decidedly Frijdian perspective on emotion in action, we adopt neurocognitive theories of action control to analyze the mechanisms through which emotional action arises. Appraisal of events vis-à-vis concerns gives rise to a determinate motive to establish a specific state of the world; the pragmatic idea of the action’s effects incurs the valuation of action options and a change in action readiness in the form of incipient ideomotor capture of the selected action. Forward modeling of the sensory consequences of the selected action option allows for the evaluation and fine-tuning of anticipated action effects, which renders the emotional action impulsive yet purposive. This novel theoretical synthesis depicts the cornerstone principles for a mechanistic view on emotion in action. PMID:29098017

Professionals' and laypersons' appreciation of various options for Class III surgical correction.

PubMed

Fabré, M; Mossaz, C; Christou, P; Kiliaridis, S

2010-08-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the assessments of maxillofacial surgeons, orthodontists, and laypersons on the predicted aesthetic outcome of various surgical options in Class III correction and the associations between certain initial cephalometric values and the judges' preferred option. Pre-surgical lateral headfilms and coloured profile photographs of 18 skeletal Class III Caucasian adult patients (10 males and 8 females) with a mean age of 24.5 years were used. The headfilms were hand traced and digitized. Conventional cephalometric analysis was performed. Computerized predictions of three surgical options, mandibular setback, Le Fort I advancement, and bimaxillary surgery, were made. For each case, the pre-surgical profile photograph with the three predictions was presented on a printed page. The questionnaire was sent to 51 maxillofacial surgeons (response rate 45.1 per cent), 78 orthodontists (response rate 71.8 per cent), and 61 laypersons (response rate 100 per cent) to aesthetically evaluate the pre-surgical photographs and the surgical predictions by placing a mark along a 10-graded visual analogue scale (VAS) using a standard profile for calibration. Confidence interval was calculated for each patient. An independent samples t-test was used to detect initial cephalometric values associated with the judges' preferred option and analysis of variance/Tukey's honestly significant differences to evaluate differences between judges. Intra-observer reliability was assessed with a paired t-test. All treatment predictions led to improved scoring of facial aesthetics with the exception of the setback option for three patients. For 14 patients, general agreement for the preferred option existed between the three groups of judges. Laypersons tended to give lower improvement scores than professionals. Overjet, nasofacial, and nasomental angles were important in decision making between the mandibular setback and Le Fort I options (the more negative the overjet, the larger the nasofacial angle, the smaller the nasomental angle, the greater the preference for the Le Fort I option). Wits appraisal seemed to be important in decision making between the mandibular setback and bimaxillary options (the more negative the Wits appraisal, the greater the preference for the latter option).

Electromagnetic Launch Vehicle Fairing and Acoustic Blanket Model of Received Power Using FEKO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trout, Dawn H.; Stanley, James E.; Wahid, Parveen F.

2011-01-01

Evaluating the impact of radio frequency transmission in vehicle fairings is important to electromagnetically sensitive spacecraft. This study employs the multilevel fast multipole method (MLFMM) from a commercial electromagnetic tool, FEKO, to model the fairing electromagnetic environment in the presence of an internal transmitter with improved accuracy over industry applied techniques. This fairing model includes material properties representative of acoustic blanketing commonly used in vehicles. Equivalent surface material models within FEKO were successfully applied to simulate the test case. Finally, a simplified model is presented using Nicholson Ross Weir derived blanket material properties. These properties are implemented with the coated metal option to reduce the model to one layer within the accuracy of the original three layer simulation.

Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Chih-Hsiung; Cheng, Sheng-Tzong; Wang, Yi-Hsien; Peng, Jin-Tang

2008-05-01

This investigation integrates a novel hybrid asymmetric volatility approach into an Artificial Neural Networks option-pricing model to upgrade the forecasting ability of the price of derivative securities. The use of the new hybrid asymmetric volatility method can simultaneously decrease the stochastic and nonlinearity of the error term sequence, and capture the asymmetric volatility. Therefore, analytical results of the ANNS option-pricing model reveal that Grey-EGARCH volatility provides greater predictability than other volatility approaches.

Co-option of Liver Vessels and Not Sprouting Angiogenesis Drives Acquired Sorafenib Resistance in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PubMed

Kuczynski, Elizabeth A; Yin, Melissa; Bar-Zion, Avinoam; Lee, Christina R; Butz, Henriett; Man, Shan; Daley, Frances; Vermeulen, Peter B; Yousef, George M; Foster, F Stuart; Reynolds, Andrew R; Kerbel, Robert S

2016-08-01

The anti-angiogenic Sorafenib is the only approved systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, acquired resistance limits its efficacy. An emerging theory to explain intrinsic resistance to other anti-angiogenic drugs is 'vessel co-option,' ie, the ability of tumors to hijack the existing vasculature in organs such as the lungs or liver, thus limiting the need for sprouting angiogenesis. Vessel co-option has not been evaluated as a potential mechanism for acquired resistance to anti-angiogenic agents. To study sorafenib resistance mechanisms, we used an orthotopic human HCC model (n = 4-11 per group), where tumor cells are tagged with a secreted protein biomarker to monitor disease burden and response to therapy. Histopathology, vessel perfusion assessed by contrast-enhanced ultrasound, and miRNA sequencing and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction were used to monitor changes in tumor biology. While sorafenib initially inhibited angiogenesis and stabilized tumor growth, no angiogenic 'rebound' effect was observed during development of resistance unless therapy was stopped. Instead, resistant tumors became more locally infiltrative, which facilitated extensive incorporation of liver parenchyma and the co-option of liver-associated vessels. Up to 75% (±10.9%) of total vessels were provided by vessel co-option in resistant tumors relative to 23.3% (±10.3%) in untreated controls. miRNA sequencing implicated pro-invasive signaling and epithelial-to-mesenchymal-like transition during resistance development while functional imaging further supported a shift from angiogenesis to vessel co-option. This is the first documentation of vessel co-option as a mechanism of acquired resistance to anti-angiogenic therapy and could have important implications including the potential therapeutic benefits of targeting vessel co-option in conjunction with vascular endothelial growth factor receptor signaling. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

A microcomputer based traffic evacuation modeling system for emergency planning application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rathi, A.K.

1995-12-31

The US Army stockpiles unitary chemical weapons, both as bulk chemicals and as munitions, at eight major sites in the United States. The continued storage and disposal of the chemical stockpile has the potential for accidental releases of toxic gases that could escape the installation boundaries and pose a threat to the civilian population in the vicinity. Vehicular evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in a real or anticipated disaster. Computer simulation models of evacuation traffic flow are used to estimate the time required for the affected populations to evacuatemore » to safer areas, to evaluate effectiveness of vehicular evacuations as a protective action option, and to develop comprehensive evacuation plans when required. Following a review of the past efforts to simulate traffic flow during emergency evacuations, an overview of the key features in Version 2.0 of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) are presented in this paper. OREMS is a microcomputer-based model developed to simulate traffic flow during regional emergency evacuations. OREMS integrates a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic flow and simulation model with advanced data editing and output display programs operating under a MS-Windows environment.« less

A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

Economic Analysis of the Impact of Overseas and Domestic Treatment and Screening Options for Intestinal Helminth Infection among US-Bound Refugees from Asia.

PubMed

Maskery, Brian; Coleman, Margaret S; Weinberg, Michelle; Zhou, Weigong; Rotz, Lisa; Klosovsky, Alexander; Cantey, Paul T; Fox, LeAnne M; Cetron, Martin S; Stauffer, William M

2016-08-01

Many U.S.-bound refugees travel from countries where intestinal parasites (hookworm, Trichuris trichuria, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Strongyloides stercoralis) are endemic. These infections are rare in the United States and may be underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed, leading to potentially serious consequences. This evaluation examined the costs and benefits of combinations of overseas presumptive treatment of parasitic diseases vs. domestic screening/treating vs. no program. An economic decision tree model terminating in Markov processes was developed to estimate the cost and health impacts of four interventions on an annual cohort of 27,700 U.S.-bound Asian refugees: 1) "No Program," 2) U.S. "Domestic Screening and Treatment," 3) "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" presumptive treatment, and 4) "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides". Markov transition state models were used to estimate long-term effects of parasitic infections. Health outcome measures (four parasites) included outpatient cases, hospitalizations, deaths, life years, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The "No Program" option is the least expensive ($165,923 per cohort) and least effective option (145 outpatient cases, 4.0 hospitalizations, and 0.67 deaths discounted over a 60-year period for a one-year cohort). The "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" option ($418,824) is less expensive than "Domestic Screening and Treatment" ($3,832,572) or "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides" ($2,182,483). According to the model outcomes, the most effective treatment option is "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin," which reduces outpatient cases, deaths and hospitalization by around 80% at an estimated net cost of $458,718 per death averted, or $2,219/$24,036 per QALY/life year gained relative to "No Program". Overseas presumptive treatment for U.S.-bound refugees is a cost-effective intervention that is less expensive and at least as effective as domestic screening and treatment programs. The addition of ivermectin to albendazole reduces the prevalence of chronic strongyloidiasis and the probability of rare, but potentially fatal, disseminated strongyloidiasis.

Economic Analysis of the Impact of Overseas and Domestic Treatment and Screening Options for Intestinal Helminth Infection among US-Bound Refugees from Asia

PubMed Central

Maskery, Brian; Coleman, Margaret S.; Weinberg, Michelle; Zhou, Weigong; Rotz, Lisa; Klosovsky, Alexander; Cantey, Paul T.; Fox, LeAnne M.; Cetron, Martin S.; Stauffer, William M.

2016-01-01

Background Many U.S.-bound refugees travel from countries where intestinal parasites (hookworm, Trichuris trichuria, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Strongyloides stercoralis) are endemic. These infections are rare in the United States and may be underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed, leading to potentially serious consequences. This evaluation examined the costs and benefits of combinations of overseas presumptive treatment of parasitic diseases vs. domestic screening/treating vs. no program. Methods An economic decision tree model terminating in Markov processes was developed to estimate the cost and health impacts of four interventions on an annual cohort of 27,700 U.S.-bound Asian refugees: 1) “No Program,” 2) U.S. “Domestic Screening and Treatment,” 3) “Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin” presumptive treatment, and 4) “Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides”. Markov transition state models were used to estimate long-term effects of parasitic infections. Health outcome measures (four parasites) included outpatient cases, hospitalizations, deaths, life years, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results The “No Program” option is the least expensive ($165,923 per cohort) and least effective option (145 outpatient cases, 4.0 hospitalizations, and 0.67 deaths discounted over a 60-year period for a one-year cohort). The “Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin” option ($418,824) is less expensive than “Domestic Screening and Treatment” ($3,832,572) or “Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides” ($2,182,483). According to the model outcomes, the most effective treatment option is “Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin,” which reduces outpatient cases, deaths and hospitalization by around 80% at an estimated net cost of $458,718 per death averted, or $2,219/$24,036 per QALY/life year gained relative to “No Program”. Discussion Overseas presumptive treatment for U.S.-bound refugees is a cost-effective intervention that is less expensive and at least as effective as domestic screening and treatment programs. The addition of ivermectin to albendazole reduces the prevalence of chronic strongyloidiasis and the probability of rare, but potentially fatal, disseminated strongyloidiasis. PMID:27509077

Other Remedy Options Evaluated

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA considered several remedy options for reducing emissions from electric generating units (EGUs) that contribute significantly to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the air quality standards by downwind states.

A parabolic variational inequality arising from the valuation of strike reset options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhou; Yi, Fahuai; Dai, Min

A strike reset option is an option that allows its holder to reset the strike price to the prevailing underlying asset price at a moment chosen by the holder. The pricing model of the option can be formulated as a one-dimensional parabolic variational inequality, or equivalently, a free boundary problem, where the free boundary just corresponds to the optimal reset strategy adopted by the holder of the option. This paper is concerned with the theoretical analysis of the model. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are established. Furthermore, we study properties of the free boundary. The monotonicity and C smoothness of the free boundary are proven in some situations.

A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for lower extremity artery disease.

PubMed

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Kleinegris, Marie-Claire; ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

2014-01-01

Lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) is a sign of wide spread atherosclerosis also affecting coronary, cerebral and renal arteries and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. Many economic evaluations have been published for LEAD due to its clinical, social and economic importance. The aim of this systematic review was to assess modelling methods used in published economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Our review appraised and compared the general characteristics, model structure and methodological quality of published models. Electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until February 2013 via OVID interface. Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Health Technology Assessment database hosted by National Institute for Health research and National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED) were also searched. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed by using the Philips' checklist. Sixteen model-based economic evaluations were identified and included. Eleven models compared therapeutic health technologies; three models compared diagnostic tests and two models compared a combination of diagnostic and therapeutic options for LEAD. Results of this systematic review revealed an acceptable to low methodological quality of the included studies. Methodological diversity and insufficient information posed a challenge for valid comparison of the included studies. In conclusion, there is a need for transparent, methodologically comparable and scientifically credible model-based economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Future modelling studies should include clinically and economically important cardiovascular outcomes to reflect the wider impact of LEAD on individual patients and on the society.

Can mother-to-child transmission of HIV be eliminated without addressing the issue of stigma? Modeling the case for a setting in South Africa.

PubMed

Prudden, Holly J; Hamilton, Matthew; Foss, Anna M; Adams, Nicole Dzialowy; Stockton, Melissa; Black, Vivian; Nyblade, Laura

2017-01-01

Stigma and discrimination ontinue to undermine the effectiveness of the HIV response. Despite a growing body of evidence of the negative relationship between stigma and HIV outcomes, there is a paucity of data available on the prevalence of stigma and its impact. We present a probabilistic cascade model to estimate the magnitude of impact stigma has on mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT). The model was parameterized using 2010 data from Johannesburg, South Africa, from which loss-to-care at each stage of the antenatal cascade were available. Three scenarios were compared to assess the individual contributions of stigma, non-stigma related barriers, and drug ineffectiveness on the overall number of infant infections. Uncertainty analysis was used to estimate plausible ranges. The model follows the guidelines in place in 2010 when the data were extracted (WHO Option A), and compares this with model results had Option B+ been implemented at the time. The model estimated under Option A, 35% of infant infections being attributed to stigma. This compares to 51% of total infections had Option B+ been implemented in 2010. Under Option B+, the model estimated fewer infections than Option A, due to the availability of more effective drugs. Only 8% (Option A) and 9% (Option B+) of infant infections were attributed to drug ineffectiveness, with the trade-off in the proportion of infections being between stigma and non-stigma-related barriers. The model demonstrates that while the effect of stigma on retention of women at any given stage along the cascade can be relatively small, the cumulative effect can be large. Reducing stigma may be critical in reaching MTCT elimination targets, because as countries improve supply-side factors, the relative impact of stigma becomes greater. The cumulative nature of the PMTCT cascade results in stigma having a large effect, this feature may be harnessed for efficiency in investment by prioritizing interventions that can affect multiple stages of the cascade simultaneously.

Can mother-to-child transmission of HIV be eliminated without addressing the issue of stigma? Modeling the case for a setting in South Africa

PubMed Central

Prudden, Holly J.; Hamilton, Matthew; Foss, Anna M.; Adams, Nicole Dzialowy; Black, Vivian; Nyblade, Laura

2017-01-01

Background Stigma and discrimination ontinue to undermine the effectiveness of the HIV response. Despite a growing body of evidence of the negative relationship between stigma and HIV outcomes, there is a paucity of data available on the prevalence of stigma and its impact. We present a probabilistic cascade model to estimate the magnitude of impact stigma has on mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT). Methods The model was parameterized using 2010 data from Johannesburg, South Africa, from which loss-to-care at each stage of the antenatal cascade were available. Three scenarios were compared to assess the individual contributions of stigma, non-stigma related barriers, and drug ineffectiveness on the overall number of infant infections. Uncertainty analysis was used to estimate plausible ranges. The model follows the guidelines in place in 2010 when the data were extracted (WHO Option A), and compares this with model results had Option B+ been implemented at the time. Results The model estimated under Option A, 35% of infant infections being attributed to stigma. This compares to 51% of total infections had Option B+ been implemented in 2010. Under Option B+, the model estimated fewer infections than Option A, due to the availability of more effective drugs. Only 8% (Option A) and 9% (Option B+) of infant infections were attributed to drug ineffectiveness, with the trade-off in the proportion of infections being between stigma and non-stigma-related barriers. Conclusions The model demonstrates that while the effect of stigma on retention of women at any given stage along the cascade can be relatively small, the cumulative effect can be large. Reducing stigma may be critical in reaching MTCT elimination targets, because as countries improve supply-side factors, the relative impact of stigma becomes greater. The cumulative nature of the PMTCT cascade results in stigma having a large effect, this feature may be harnessed for efficiency in investment by prioritizing interventions that can affect multiple stages of the cascade simultaneously. PMID:29220369

76 FR 9696 - Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-22

... for particular efficiency design options, an empirical experience curve fit to the available data may be used to forecast future costs of such design option technologies. If a statistical evaluation indicates a low level of confidence in estimates of the design option cost trend, this method should not be...

An Employer's Guide to Child Care Consultants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eichman, Caroline

This guide is designed to help employers hire a qualified child care consultant who will evaluate child care options in light of employees' needs and help develop and implement appropriate child care options. These options include: (1) establishment of a child care facility; (2) financial assistance; (3) a resource and referral service; (4)…

Executive summary: Benefit-cost evaluation of an intra-regional air service in the Bay Area and a technology assessment of transportation system investments. [regional planning for the San Francisco Bay area of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haefner, L. E.

1978-01-01

The benefits and costs that would result from an intra-regional air service operation in the San Francisco Bay area were determined by utilizing an iterative statistical decision model to evaluate combinations of commuter airport sites and surface transportation facilities in conjunction with service by a given commuter aircraft type in light of area regional growth alternatives and peak and off-peak regional travel patterns. The model evaluates such transportation option with respect to criteria of airline profitability, public acceptance, and public and private non-user costs. In so doing, it incorporates information on modal split, peak and off-peak use of the air commuter fleet, terminal and airport costs, development costs and uses of land in proximity to the airport sites, regional population shifts, and induced zonal shifts in travel demand. The model is multimodal in its analytic capability, and performs exhaustive sensitivity analysis.

Six-degree-of-freedom aircraft simulation with mixed-data structure using the applied dynamics simulation language, ADSIM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savaglio, Clare

1989-01-01

A realistic simulation of an aircraft in the flight using the AD 100 digital computer is presented. The implementation of three model features is specifically discussed: (1) a large aerodynamic data base (130,00 function values) which is evaluated using function interpolation to obtain the aerodynamic coefficients; (2) an option to trim the aircraft in longitudinal flight; and (3) a flight control system which includes a digital controller. Since the model includes a digital controller the simulation implements not only continuous time equations but also discrete time equations, thus the model has a mixed-data structure.

Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chai, Tianfeng; Crawford, Alice; Stunder, Barbara; Pavolonis, Michael J.; Draxler, Roland; Stein, Ariel

2017-02-01

Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) runs the HYSPLIT dispersion model with a unit mass release rate to predict the transport and dispersion of volcanic ash. The model predictions provide information for the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to issue advisories to meteorological watch offices, area control centers, flight information centers, and others. This research aims to provide quantitative forecasts of ash distributions generated by objectively and optimally estimating the volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations using an observation-modeling inversion technique. In this top-down approach, a cost functional is defined to quantify the differences between the model predictions and the satellite measurements of column-integrated ash concentrations weighted by the model and observation uncertainties. Minimizing this cost functional by adjusting the sources provides the volcanic ash emission estimates. As an example, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite retrievals of the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds are used to test the HYSPLIT volcanic ash inverse system. Because the satellite retrievals include the ash cloud top height but not the bottom height, there are different model diagnostic choices for comparing the model results with the observed mass loadings. Three options are presented and tested. Although the emission estimates vary significantly with different options, the subsequent model predictions with the different release estimates all show decent skill when evaluated against the unassimilated satellite observations at later times. Among the three options, integrating over three model layers yields slightly better results than integrating from the surface up to the observed volcanic ash cloud top or using a single model layer. Inverse tests also show that including the ash-free region to constrain the model is not beneficial for the current case. In addition, extra constraints on the source terms can be given by explicitly enforcing no-ash for the atmosphere columns above or below the observed ash cloud top height. However, in this case such extra constraints are not helpful for the inverse modeling. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.

5 CFR 410.203 - Options for developing employees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Planning and Evaluating Training § 410.203 Options for developing employees. Agencies may use a full range...-development activities, coaching, mentoring, career development counseling, details, rotational assignments...

5 CFR 410.203 - Options for developing employees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Planning and Evaluating Training § 410.203 Options for developing employees. Agencies may use a full range...-development activities, coaching, mentoring, career development counseling, details, rotational assignments...

5 CFR 410.203 - Options for developing employees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Planning and Evaluating Training § 410.203 Options for developing employees. Agencies may use a full range...-development activities, coaching, mentoring, career development counseling, details, rotational assignments...

5 CFR 410.203 - Options for developing employees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Planning and Evaluating Training § 410.203 Options for developing employees. Agencies may use a full range...-development activities, coaching, mentoring, career development counseling, details, rotational assignments...

Multitasking kernel for the C and Fortran programming languages

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooks, E.D. III

1984-09-01

A multitasking kernel for the C and Fortran programming languages which runs on the Unix operating system is presented. The kernel provides a multitasking environment which serves two purposes. The first is to provide an efficient portable environment for the coding, debugging and execution of production multiprocessor programs. The second is to provide a means of evaluating the performance of a multitasking program on model multiprocessors. The performance evaluation features require no changes in the source code of the application and are implemented as a set of compile and run time options in the kernel.

Taking an Evaluative Stance to Decision-Making about Professional Development Options in Early Childhood Education and Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brownlee, Joanne Lunn; Sumsion, Jennifer; Irvine, Susan; Berthelsen, Donna; Farrell, Ann; Walsh, Kerryann; Ryan, Sharon; Mulhearn, Gerry

2015-01-01

This article builds on our ongoing work in conceptualising an "evaluative stance" framework to assist in understanding how leaders in the field of early childhood education and care (ECEC) make decisions about the selection of professional development options for themselves and their staff. It introduces the notion that evaluative…

Format of Options in Multiple Choice Test vis-a-vis Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bendulo, Hermabeth O.; Tibus, Erlinda D.; Bande, Rhodora A.; Oyzon, Voltaire Q.; Milla, Norberto E.; Macalinao, Myrna L.

2017-01-01

Testing or evaluation in an educational context is primarily used to measure or evaluate and authenticate the academic readiness, learning advancement, acquisition of skills, or instructional needs of learners. This study tried to determine whether the varied combinations of arrangements of options and letter cases in a Multiple-Choice Test (MCT)…

Choosing Optional Career Education. Project Choice 1988-89. OREA Report. Evaluation Section Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berney, Tomi D.; Plotkin, Donna

This report evaluates the implementation and outcome of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act Title VII program, Choosing Optional Infused Career Education (Project CHOICE) in Springfield Gardens High School in Queens (New York) and Fort Hamilton High School in Brooklyn (New York) for the 1988-89 school year. The project was created to combat…

Plus and Minus Grading Options: Toward Accurate Student Performance Evaluations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Academic Senate.

Although both the University of California and the California State University systems have the option to use plus or minus grades in student evaluations, the Board of Governors of the California Community Colleges (CCC) does not allow the use of such a grading system. Since 1985, the CCC's Academic Senate has lobbied the Board to allow local…

The conceptual design of a hybrid life support system based on the evaluation and comparison of terrestrial testbeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czupalla, M.; Horneck, G.; Blome, H. J.

This report summarizes a trade study of different options of a bioregenerative Life Support System (LSS) and a subsequent conceptual design of a hybrid LSS. The evaluation was based mainly on the terrestrial testbed projects MELISSA (ESA) and BIOS (Russia). In addition, some methods suggested by the Advanced Life Support Project (NASA) were considered. Computer models, including mass flows were established for each of the systems with the goal of closing system loops to the extent possible. In order to cope with the differences in the supported crew size and provided nutrition, all systems were scaled for supporting a crew of six for a 780 day Mars mission (180 days transport to Mars; 600 days surface period) as given in the NASA Design Reference Mission Scenario [Hoffman, S.J., Kaplan, D.L. Human exploration of Mars: the Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploratory Study, 1997]. All models were scaled to provide the same daily allowances, as of calories, to the crew. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) analysis was used to compare the investigated system models against each other. Following the comparison of the terrestrial systems, the system specific subsystem options for Food Supply, Solid Waste Processing, Water Management and Atmosphere Revitalization were evaluated in a separate trade study. The best subsystem technologies from the trade study were integrated into an overall design solution based on mass flow relationships. The optimized LSS is mainly a bioregenerative system, complemented by a few physico-chemical elements, with a total ESM of 18,088 kg, which is about 4 times higher than that of a pure physico-chemical LSS, as designed in an earlier study.

The conceptual design of a hybrid life support system based on the evaluation and comparison of terrestrial testbeds.

PubMed

Czupalla, M; Horneck, G; Blome, H J

2005-01-01

This report summarizes a trade study of different options of a bioregenerative Life Support System (LSS) and a subsequent conceptual design of a hybrid LSS. The evaluation was based mainly on the terrestrial testbed projects MELISSA (ESA) and BIOS (Russia). In addition, some methods suggested by the Advanced Life Support Project (NASA) were considered. Computer models, including mass flows were established for each of the systems with the goal of closing system loops to the extent possible. In order to cope with the differences in the supported crew size and provided nutrition, all systems were scaled for supporting a crew of six for a 780 day Mars mission (180 days transport to Mars; 600 days surface period) as given in the NASA Design Reference Mission Scenario [Hoffman, S.J., Kaplan, D.L. Human exploration of Mars: the Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploratory Study, 1997]. All models were scaled to provide the same daily allowances, as of calories, to the crew. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) analysis was used to compare the investigated system models against each other. Following the comparison of the terrestrial systems, the system specific subsystem options for Food Supply, Solid Waste Processing, Water Management and Atmosphere Revitalization were evaluated in a separate trade study. The best subsystem technologies from the trade study were integrated into an overall design solution based on mass flow relationships. The optimized LSS is mainly a bioregenerative system, complemented by a few physico-chemical elements, with a total ESM of 18,088 kg, which is about 4 times higher than that of a pure physico-chemical LSS, as designed in an earlier study. c2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The paradoxical effect of low reward probabilities in suboptimal choice.

PubMed

Fortes, Inês; Pinto, Carlos; Machado, Armando; Vasconcelos, Marco

2018-04-01

When offered a choice between 2 alternatives, animals sometimes prefer the option yielding less food. For instance, pigeons and starlings prefer an option that on 20% of the trials presents a stimulus always followed by food, and on the remaining 80% of the trials presents a stimulus never followed by food (the Informative Option), over an option that provides food on 50% of the trials regardless of the stimulus presented (the Noninformative Option). To explain this suboptimal behavior, it has been hypothesized that animals ignore (or do not engage with) the stimulus that is never followed by food in the Informative Option. To assess when pigeons attend to the stimulus usually not followed by food, we increased the probability of reinforcement, p, in the presence of that stimulus. Across 2 experiments, we found that the value of the Informative Option decreased with p. To account for the results, we added to the Reinforcement Rate Model (and also to the Hyperbolic Discounting Model) an engagement function, f(p), that specified the likelihood the animal attends to a stimulus followed by reward with probability p, and then derived the model predictions for 2 forms of f(p), a linear function, and an all-or-none threshold function. Both models predicted the observed findings with a linear engagement function: The higher the probability of reinforcement after a stimulus, the higher the probability of engaging the stimulus, and, surprisingly, the less the value of the option comprising the stimulus. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

CARES/Life Ceramics Durability Evaluation Software Used for Mars Microprobe Aeroshell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1998-01-01

The CARES/Life computer program, which was developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center, predicts the probability of a monolithic ceramic component's failure as a function of time in service. The program has many features and options for materials evaluation and component design. It couples commercial finite element programs-which resolve a component's temperature and stress distribution-to-reliability evaluation and fracture mechanics routines for modeling strength-limiting defects. These routines are based on calculations of the probabilistic nature of the brittle material's strength. The capability, flexibility, and uniqueness of CARES/Life has attracted many users representing a broad range of interests and has resulted in numerous awards for technological achievements and technology transfer.

Preliminary design of CERN Future Circular Collider tunnel: first evaluation of the radiation environment in critical areas for electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Infantino, Angelo; Alía, Rubén García; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Brugger, Markus; Cerutti, Francesco

2017-09-01

As part of its post-LHC high energy physics program, CERN is conducting a study for a new proton-proton collider, called Future Circular Collider (FCC-hh), running at center-of-mass energies of up to 100 TeV in a new 100 km tunnel. The study includes a 90-350 GeV lepton collider (FCC-ee) as well as a lepton-hadron option (FCC-he). In this work, FLUKA Monte Carlo simulation was extensively used to perform a first evaluation of the radiation environment in critical areas for electronics in the FCC-hh tunnel. The model of the tunnel was created based on the original civil engineering studies already performed and further integrated in the existing FLUKA models of the beam line. The radiation levels in critical areas, such as the racks for electronics and cables, power converters, service areas, local tunnel extensions was evaluated.

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options. Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR. Methods A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. Results In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30–65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively. Conclusions A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR. PMID:27631732

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

PubMed

Chanthavilay, Phetsavanh; Reinharz, Daniel; Mayxay, Mayfong; Phongsavan, Keokedthong; Marsden, Donald E; Moore, Lynne; White, Lisa J

2016-01-01

Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options. To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR. A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30-65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively. A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR.

Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

2014-05-01

To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

TOPEX satellite concept. TOPEX option study report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, D. P.; Case, C. M.

1982-01-01

Candidate bus equipment from the Viking, Applications Explorer Mission, and Small Scientific Satellite programs for application to the TOPEX mission options is assessed. Propulsion module equipment and subsystem candidates from the Applications Explorer Mission satellites and the Small Scientific Satellite spacecraft are evaluated for those TOPEX options. Several subsystem concepts appropriate to the TOPEX options are described. These descriptions consider performance characteristics of the subsystems. Cost and availability information on the candidate equipment and subsystems are also provided.

Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qi; Xu, Weidong

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose a general foreign equity option pricing framework that unifies the vast foreign equity option pricing literature and incorporates the stochastic volatility into foreign equity option pricing. Under our framework, the time-changed Lévy processes are used to model the underlying assets price of foreign equity option and the closed form pricing formula is obtained through the use of characteristic function methodology. Numerical tests indicate that stochastic volatility has a dramatic effect on the foreign equity option prices.

Factors affecting road mortality of white-tailed deer in eastern South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Galster, Dwight H.; Schauer, Ron J.; Morlock, Wilbert W.; Delger, Joshua A.

2008-01-01

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortalities (n = 4,433) caused by collisions with automobiles during 2003 were modeled in 35 counties in eastern South Dakota. Seventeen independent variables and 5 independent variable interactions were evaluated to explain deer mortalities. A negative binomial regression model (Ln Y = 1.25 – 0.12 [percentage tree coverage] + 0.0002 [county area] + 5.39 [county hunter success rate] + 0.0023 [vehicle proxy 96–104 km/hr roads], model deviance = 33.43, χ2 = 27.53, df = 27) was chosen using a combination of a priori model selection and AICc. Management options include use of the model to predict road mortalities and to increase the number of hunting licenses, which could result in fewer DVCs.

Option Fixation: A Cognitive Contributor to Overconfidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sieck, Winston R.; Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

2007-01-01

The ASC model of choice and confidence in general knowledge proposes that respondents first Assess the familiarity of presented options, and then use the high-familiarity option as a retrieval cue to Search memory for the purposes of Constructing an explanation about why that high-familiarity option is true. The ASC process implies that…

Studies in Mathematical Models of Human Decisionmaking in Gaming Situations

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-06

option evaluation, and action selection. Empirical research on human declslonmaking [41,[51, has established that all of the above assumptions are...into account the possibility of "irrational" actions . The work of Aumann and Maschler [9’], Ho [10], and others [111 studies games where the assumption...8217 expected actions of the other decisionmakers by subjective probabilities. The purposeof our research effort was to further develop the mathemat- ical

Incentives for new antibiotics: the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) model.

PubMed

Brogan, David M; Mossialos, Elias

2013-11-07

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing threat resulting from the convergence of biological, economic and political pressures. Investment in research and development of new antimicrobials has suffered secondary to these pressures, leading to an emerging crisis in antibiotic resistance. Current policies to stimulate antibiotic development have proven inadequate to overcome market failures. Therefore innovative ideas utilizing market forces are necessary to stimulate new investment efforts. Employing the benefits of both the previously described Advanced Market Commitment and a refined Call Options for Vaccines model, we describe herein a novel incentive mechanism, the Options Market for Antibiotics. This model applies the benefits of a financial call option to the investment in and purchase of new antibiotics. The goal of this new model is to provide an effective mechanism for early investment and risk sharing while maintaining a credible purchase commitment and incentives for companies to ultimately bring new antibiotics to market. We believe that the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) may help to overcome some of the traditional market failures associated with the development of new antibiotics. Additional work must be done to develop a more robust mathematical model to pave the way for practical implementation.

Incentives for new antibiotics: the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Antimicrobial resistance is a growing threat resulting from the convergence of biological, economic and political pressures. Investment in research and development of new antimicrobials has suffered secondary to these pressures, leading to an emerging crisis in antibiotic resistance. Methods Current policies to stimulate antibiotic development have proven inadequate to overcome market failures. Therefore innovative ideas utilizing market forces are necessary to stimulate new investment efforts. Employing the benefits of both the previously described Advanced Market Commitment and a refined Call Options for Vaccines model, we describe herein a novel incentive mechanism, the Options Market for Antibiotics. Results This model applies the benefits of a financial call option to the investment in and purchase of new antibiotics. The goal of this new model is to provide an effective mechanism for early investment and risk sharing while maintaining a credible purchase commitment and incentives for companies to ultimately bring new antibiotics to market. Conclusions We believe that the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) may help to overcome some of the traditional market failures associated with the development of new antibiotics. Additional work must be done to develop a more robust mathematical model to pave the way for practical implementation. PMID:24199835

Network approaches for expert decisions in sports.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Heinen, Thomas; Johnson, Joseph G; Raab, Markus

2012-04-01

This paper focuses on a model comparison to explain choices based on gaze behavior via simulation procedures. We tested two classes of models, a parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) artificial neuronal network model and an accumulator model in a handball decision-making task from a lab experiment. Both models predict action in an option-generation task in which options can be chosen from the perspective of a playmaker in handball (i.e., passing to another player or shooting at the goal). Model simulations are based on a dataset of generated options together with gaze behavior measurements from 74 expert handball players for 22 pieces of video footage. We implemented both classes of models as deterministic vs. probabilistic models including and excluding fitted parameters. Results indicated that both classes of models can fit and predict participants' initially generated options based on gaze behavior data, and that overall, the classes of models performed about equally well. Early fixations were thereby particularly predictive for choices. We conclude that the analyses of complex environments via network approaches can be successfully applied to the field of experts' decision making in sports and provide perspectives for further theoretical developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Preferences for AAC Options in Communication Interventions for Individuals with Developmental Disabilities: A Review of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Meer, Larah; Sigafoos, Jeff; O'Reilly, Mark F.; Lancioni, Giulio E.

2011-01-01

We synthesized studies that assessed preference for using different augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) options. Studies were identified via systematic searches of electronic databases, journals, and reference lists. Studies were evaluated in terms of: (a) participants, (b) setting, (c) communication options assessed, (d) design, (e)…

A discontinuous Galerkin method for numerical pricing of European options under Heston stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2016-12-01

The paper is based on the results from our recent research on multidimensional option pricing problems. We focus on European option valuation when the price movement of the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility following a square root process proposed by Heston. The stochastic approach incorporates a new additional spatial variable into this model and makes it very robust, i.e. it provides a framework to price a variety of options that is closer to reality. The main topic is to present the numerical scheme arising from the concept of discontinuous Galerkin methods and applicable to the Heston option pricing model. The numerical results are presented on artificial benchmarks as well as on reference market data.

Identifying and Evaluating Options for Improving Sediment Management and Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams in the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, T. B.; Reed, P. M.; Loucks, D. P.

2015-12-01

The Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia is undergoing intensive and pervasive hydropower development to satisfy demand for increased energy and income to support its growing population of 60 million people. Just 20 years ago this river flowed freely. Today some 30 large dams exist in the basin, and over 100 more are being planned for construction. These dams will alter the river's natural water, sediment and nutrient flows, thereby impacting river morphology and ecosystems, and will fragment fish migration pathways. In doing so, they will degrade one of the world's most valuable and productive freshwater fish habitats. For those dams that have not yet been constructed, there still exist opportunities to modify their siting, design and operation (SDO) to potentially achieve a more balanced set of tradeoffs among hydropower production, sediment/nutrient passage and fish passage. We introduce examples of such alternative SDO opportunities for Sambor Dam in Cambodia, planned to be constructed on the main stem of the Mekong River. To evaluate the performance of such alternatives, we developed a Python-based simulation tool called PySedSim. PySedSim is a daily time step mass balance model that identifies the relative tradeoffs among hydropower production, and flow and sediment regime alteration, associated with reservoir sediment management techniques such as flushing, sluicing, bypassing, density current venting and dredging. To date, there has been a very limited acknowledgement or evaluation of the significant uncertainties that impact the evaluation of SDO alternatives. This research is formalizing a model diagnostic assessment of the key assumptions and parametric uncertainties that strongly influence PySedSim SDO evaluations. Using stochastic hydrology and sediment load data, our diagnostic assessment evaluates and compares several Sambor Dam alternatives using several performance measures related to energy production, sediment trapping and regime alteration, and fish passage. We show that performance of the alternatives can be highly variable, and conduct a simultaneous multi-parameter factor screening sensitivity analysis to identify the subset of PySedSim model parameters that contribute most significantly to performance uncertainties in attempts to identify the more robust options.

Predicting water consumption habits for seven arsenic-safe water options in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In Bangladesh, 20 million people are at the risk of developing arsenicosis because of excessive arsenic intake. Despite increased awareness, many of the implemented arsenic-safe water options are not being sufficiently used by the population. This study investigated the role of social-cognitive factors in explaining the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. Methods Eight hundred seventy-two randomly selected households in six arsenic-affected districts of rural Bangladesh, which had access to an arsenic-safe water option, were interviewed using structured face-to-face interviews in November 2009. Habitual use of arsenic-safe water options, severity, vulnerability, affective and instrumental attitudes, injunctive and descriptive norms, self-efficacy, and coping planning were measured. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Results Linear regression revealed that self-efficacy (B = 0.42, SE = .03, p < .001), the instrumental attitude towards the safe water option (B = 0.24, SE = .04, p < .001), the affective attitude towards contaminated tube wells (B = −0.04, SE = .02, p = .024), vulnerability (B = −0.20, SE = .02, p < .001), as well as injunctive (B = 0.08, SE = 0.04, p = .049) and descriptive norms (B = 0.34, SE = .03, p < .001) primarily explained the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options (R2 = 0.688). This model proved highly generalizable to all seven arsenic-safe water options investigated, even though habitual use of single options were predicted on the basis of parameters estimated without these options. Conclusions This general model for the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options may prove useful to predict other water consumption habits. Behavior-change interventions are derived from the model to promote the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. PMID:23634950

The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.

Flexible microwave ablation applicator for the treatment of pulmonary malignancies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfannenstiel, Austin; Keast, Tom; Kramer, Steve; Wibowo, Henky; Prakash, Punit

2017-02-01

Microwave ablation (MWA) is an emerging minimally invasive treatment option for malignant lung tumors. Compared to other energy modalities, such as radiofrequency ablation, MWA offers the advantages of deeper penetration within high impedance tissues such as aerated lung, shorter treatment times, and less susceptibility to the cooling heat-sink effects of air and blood flow. Previous studies have demonstrated clinical use of MWA for treating lung tumors; however, these procedures have relied upon the percutaneous application of rigid microwave antennas. The objective of our work was to develop and characterize a novel flexible microwave applicator which could be integrated with a bronchoscopic imaging and software guidance platform to expand the use of MWA as a treatment option for small (< 2cm) pulmonary tumors. This applicator would allow physicians an even less invasive, immediate treatment option for lung tumors identified within the scope of current medical procedures. It may also improve applicator placement accuracy and increase efficacy while minimizing the risk of procedural complications. A 2D-axisymmetric coupled FEM electromagnetic-heat transfer model was implemented to characterize expected antenna radiation patterns, ablation size and shape, and optimize antenna design for lung tissue. A prototype device was fabricated and evaluated in ex vivo tissues to verify simulation results and serve as proof-of-concept. Additional experiments were conducted in an in vivo animal model to further characterize the proposed system.

Incorporating Asymmetric Dependency Patterns in the Evaluation of IS/IT projects Using Real Option Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, John C.

2012-01-01

The objective of my dissertation is to create a general approach to evaluating IS/IT projects using Real Option Analysis (ROA). This is an important problem because an IT Project Portfolio (ITPP) can represent hundreds of projects, millions of dollars of investment and hundreds of thousands of employee hours. Therefore, any advance in the…

Impact of Flexibility Options on Grid Economic Carrying Capacity of Solar and Wind: Three Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denholm, Paul; Novacheck, Joshua; Jorgenson, Jennie

In this study, we attempt to quantify the benefits of various options of grid flexibility by measuring their impact on two measures: economic carrying capacity and system costs. Flexibility can increase ECC and reduce overall system costs. In some cases, options that provide a limited increase in ECC can provide significant operational savings, thus demonstrating the need to evaluate flexibility options using multiple metrics. The value of flexibility options varies regionally due to different generation mixes and types of renewables. The more rapid decline in PV value compared to wind makes PV more dependent on adding flexibility options, including transmissionmore » and energy storage.« less

Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

PubMed Central

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales. PMID:27872603

Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective.

PubMed

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.

Power generation using sugar cane bagasse: A heat recovery analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguro, Jean Vittorio

The sugar industry is facing the need to improve its performance by increasing efficiency and developing profitable by-products. An important possibility is the production of electrical power for sale. Co-generation has been practiced in the sugar industry for a long time in a very inefficient way with the main purpose of getting rid of the bagasse. The goal of this research was to develop a software tool that could be used to improve the way that bagasse is used to generate power. Special focus was given to the heat recovery components of the co-generation plant (economizer, air pre-heater and bagasse dryer) to determine if one, or a combination, of them led to a more efficient co-generation cycle. An extensive review of the state of the art of power generation in the sugar industry was conducted and is summarized in this dissertation. Based on this models were developed. After testing the models and comparing the results with the data collected from the literature, a software application that integrated all these models was developed to simulate the complete co-generation plant. Seven different cycles, three different pressures, and sixty-eight distributions of the flue gas through the heat recovery components can be simulated. The software includes an economic analysis tool that can help the designer determine the economic feasibility of different options. Results from running the simulation are presented that demonstrate its effectiveness in evaluating and comparing the different heat recovery components and power generation cycles. These results indicate that the economizer is the most beneficial option for heat recovery and that the use of waste heat in a bagasse dryer is the least desirable option. Quantitative comparisons of several possible cycle options with the widely-used traditional back-pressure turbine cycle are given. These indicate that a double extraction condensing cycle is best for co-generation purposes. Power generation gains between 40 and 100% are predicted for some cycles with the addition of optimum heat recovery systems.

[Establishment of a canine slow transit constipation model and evalution of defecation, gastrointestinal transit and pathological sections].

PubMed

Zhu, D; Chen, S; Yao, S K; Li, Y M; Chen, S X

2018-06-12

Objective: To establish a canine model of slow transit constipation (STC), and to test the changes in defecation, gastrointestinal transit time and pathology sections. Methods: Baseline information was measured in 8 beagle dogs, and these dogs were randomly divided into the control group and the model group. The dogs in model group were given a diet of canned meat, as well as a combination of compound diphenoxylate and alosetron hydrochloride for 5 weeks. Dogs in control group were given normal diet with no special intervention. Stool frequency and consistency were observed and recorded daily, and the gastrointestinal transit time (GITT) were measured every week. All animals underwent the midline laparotomy and the colonic tissues were taken from the rectosigmoid colon, then investigated by light microscopy, electron microscopy, and immunohistochemistry to evaluate changes of protein gene product 9.5(PGP9.5), synaptophysin and c-kit between two groups. Results: 8 beagle dogs underwent all experiment items successfully.Both of the stool frequency and scores of stool consistency decreased in model group( F =6.568, P =0.043; F =25.954, P =0.002). GITT delayed in model group( F =42.573, P =0.001). After 5 weeks of intervention, in the model group, the myenteric neurons and interstitial cells of Cajal showed damage such as swelling of mitochondria under electron microscopy, and both of the PGP9.5 and synaptophysin integrated option density of rectosigmoid colon were decreased ( t =3.471, P =0.013; t =2.506, P =0.046)under immunohistochemistry. The c-kit integrated option density showed no statistically significant differences between two groups( t =1.709, P =0.138). Conclusions: The canine model of STC which was consistent with clinical symptoms and pathological changes was successfully established, and it can be used to observe and evaluate the therapeutic effect of electrical stimulation, surgery and so on.

Comparing Item Performance on Three- Versus Four-Option Multiple Choice Questions in a Veterinary Toxicology Course.

PubMed

Royal, Kenneth; Dorman, David

2018-06-09

The number of answer options is an important element of multiple-choice questions (MCQs). Many MCQs contain four or more options despite the limited literature suggesting that there is little to no benefit beyond three options. The purpose of this study was to evaluate item performance on 3-option versus 4-option MCQs used in a core curriculum course in veterinary toxicology at a large veterinary medical school in the United States. A quasi-experimental, crossover design was used in which students in each class were randomly assigned to take one of two versions (A or B) of two major exams. Both the 3-option and 4-option MCQs resulted in similar psychometric properties. The findings of our study support earlier research in other medical disciplines and settings that likewise concluded there was no significant change in the psychometric properties of three option MCQs when compared to the traditional MCQs with four or more options.

Building a Practical Natural Laminar Flow Design Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Richard L.; Lynde, Michelle N.

2017-01-01

A preliminary natural laminar flow (NLF) design method that has been developed and applied to supersonic and transonic wings with moderate-to-high leading-edge sweeps at flight Reynolds numbers is further extended and evaluated in this paper. The modular design approach uses a knowledge-based design module linked with different flow solvers and boundary layer stability analysis methods to provide a multifidelity capability for NLF analysis and design. An assessment of the effects of different options for stability analysis is included using pressures and geometry from an NLF wing designed for the Common Research Model (CRM). Several extensions to the design module are described, including multiple new approaches to design for controlling attachment line contamination and transition. Finally, a modification to the NLF design algorithm that allows independent control of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) and cross flow (CF) modes is proposed. A preliminary evaluation of the TS-only option applied to the design of an NLF nacelle for the CRM is performed that includes the use of a low-fidelity stability analysis directly in the design module.

A Dexterous Optional Randomized Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarray, Tanveer A.; Singh, Housila P.; Yan, Zaizai

2017-01-01

This article addresses the problem of estimating the proportion Pi[subscript S] of the population belonging to a sensitive group using optional randomized response technique in stratified sampling based on Mangat model that has proportional and Neyman allocation and larger gain in efficiency. Numerically, it is found that the suggested model is…

Effects of Employing Ridge Regression in Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McQuitty, Shaun

1997-01-01

LISREL 8 invokes a ridge option when maximum likelihood or generalized least squares are used to estimate a structural equation model with a nonpositive definite covariance or correlation matrix. Implications of the ridge option for model fit, parameter estimates, and standard errors are explored through two examples. (SLD)

Format( )MEDIC( )Input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, K.

1994-09-01

This document is a description of a computer program called Format( )MEDIC( )Input. The purpose of this program is to allow the user to quickly reformat wind velocity data in the Model Evaluation Database (MEDb) into a reasonable 'first cut' set of MEDIC input files (MEDIC.nml, StnLoc.Met, and Observ.Met). The user is cautioned that these resulting input files must be reviewed for correctness and completeness. This program will not format MEDb data into a Problem Station Library or Problem Metdata File. A description of how the program reformats the data is provided, along with a description of the required and optional user input and a description of the resulting output files. A description of the MEDb is not provided here but can be found in the RAS Division Model Evaluation Database Description document.

Effect of PTX3 and Voriconazole Combination in a Rat Model of Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Lo Giudice, Pietro; Campo, Silvia; De Santis, Rita

2012-01-01

This study evaluated the pharmacological activity of PTX3, administered in combination with voriconazole, in a rat model of pulmonary aspergillosis. The data indicated additive therapeutic activities of these compounds, as demonstrated by the amelioration of respiratory function changes, reduction of lung fungal burden, and increased survival. Overall, we provide clear evidence that the combination of PTX3 with a suboptimal dose of voriconazole might represent a therapeutic option under those clinical conditions where the use of voriconazole alone is not warranted for efficacy and tolerability reasons. PMID:23006752

ASDA - Advanced Suit Design Analyzer computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bue, Grant C.; Conger, Bruce C.; Iovine, John V.; Chang, Chi-Min

1992-01-01

An ASDA model developed to evaluate the heat and mass transfer characteristics of advanced pressurized suit design concepts for low pressure or vacuum planetary applications is presented. The model is based on a generalized 3-layer suit that uses the Systems Integrated Numerical Differencing Analyzer '85 in conjunction with a 41-node FORTRAN routine. The latter simulates the transient heat transfer and respiratory processes of a human body in a suited environment. The user options for the suit encompass a liquid cooled garment, a removable jacket, a CO2/H2O permeable layer, and a phase change layer.

On the transferability of RegCM4: Europe, Africa and Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

2013-04-01

Simulations driven by ERA-interim reanalysis for CORDEX domains covering Europe, Africa and Asia have been performed using RegCM4 at 50 km resolution. The same settings are used in basic simulations and preliminary evaluation of model performance for individual regions will be presented. Several settings of different options is tested and sensitivity of selected ones will be shown in individual regions. Secant Mercator projection is introduced for Africa providing more efficient model geometry setting, the impact of proper emissivity inclusion is compared especially for Africa and Asia desserts. CRU data are used for the validation.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.

1992-01-01

This report presents the results from a 35 month period of a program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program is composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addresses the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigates the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involve experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material form the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: (001), (011), (111), and (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal material were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were selected for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. An initial life model used to correlate smooth and notched fatigue data obtained in the option program shows promise. Computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive models was developed.

Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.

2004-12-01

Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).

Systems engineering approach to environmental risk management: A case study of depleted uranium at test area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Master`s thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carter, C.M.; Fortmann, K.M.; Hill, S.W.

1994-12-01

Environmental restoration is an area of concern in an environmentally conscious world. Much effort is required to clean up the environment and promote environmentally sound methods for managing current land use. In light of the public consciousness with the latter topic, the United States Air Force must also take an active role in addressing these environmental issues with respect to current and future USAF base land use. This thesis uses the systems engineering technique to assess human health risks and to evaluate risk management options with respect to depleted uranium contamination in the sampled region of Test Area (TA) C-64more » at Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). The research combines the disciplines of environmental data collection, DU soil concentration distribution modeling, ground water modeling, particle resuspension modeling, exposure assessment, health hazard assessment, and uncertainty analysis to characterize the test area. These disciplines are required to quantify current and future health risks, as well as to recommend cost effective ways to increase confidence in health risk assessment and remediation options.« less

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

1992-01-01

This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2015-06-01

While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

An integrated environmental and health performance quantification model for pre-occupancy phase of buildings in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaodong, E-mail: eastdawn@tsinghua.edu.cn; Su, Shu, E-mail: sushuqh@163.com; Zhang, Zhihui, E-mail: zhzhg@tsinghua.edu.cn

To comprehensively pre-evaluate the damages to both the environment and human health due to construction activities in China, this paper presents an integrated building environmental and health performance (EHP) assessment model based on the Building Environmental Performance Analysis System (BEPAS) and the Building Health Impact Analysis System (BHIAS) models and offers a new inventory data estimation method. The new model follows the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework and the inventory analysis step involves bill of quantity (BOQ) data collection, consumption data formation, and environmental profile transformation. The consumption data are derived from engineering drawings and quotas to conduct the assessmentmore » before construction for pre-evaluation. The new model classifies building impacts into three safeguard areas: ecosystems, natural resources and human health. Thus, this model considers environmental impacts as well as damage to human wellbeing. The monetization approach, distance-to-target method and panel method are considered as optional weighting approaches. Finally, nine residential buildings of different structural types are taken as case studies to test the operability of the integrated model through application. The results indicate that the new model can effectively pre-evaluate building EHP and the structure type significantly affects the performance of residential buildings.« less

Methodological issues in evaluating cost effectiveness of adjuvant aromatase inhibitors in early breast cancer: a need for improved modelling to aid decision making.

PubMed

Annemans, Lieven

2008-01-01

The optimal adjuvant hormonal strategy in post-menopausal women with early breast cancer is a subject of ongoing debate. Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) have been successfully evaluated in clinical trials that have compared them with a standard treatment of 5 years of tamoxifen. However, several options are available in terms of treatment schedule and selected drug. Systematic reviews of clinical trials and health economic evaluations attempt to contribute to the debate. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of existing health economic evaluations with a focus on those parameters and assumptions with the largest impact on final outcomes.A wide range of different inputs and assumptions exist, which make a comparison of results difficult, if not impossible. In particular, the modelling of recurrence rates over longer time horizons than those observed in clinical trials, a cornerstone of health economic modelling, is subject to quite different approaches. The practice of indirect comparison of different AIs without sufficiently acknowledging population differences is also bothersome. A list of key features (related to time horizon, clinical data input, patient subtypes, budget impact and model calibration) that an ideal model should have in order to better assist decision makers in this field is proposed.

A behavioural and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single choice contexts there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal pre-determined strategy, irrespective of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously re-evaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of re-evaluating decision utilities, where available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously-acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes. PMID:20980595

Two stage gear tooth dynamics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Linda S.

1989-01-01

The epicyclic gear dynamics program was expanded to add the option of evaluating the tooth pair dynamics for two epicyclic gear stages with peripheral components. This was a practical extension to the program as multiple gear stages are often used for speed reduction, space, weight, and/or auxiliary units. The option was developed for either stage to be a basic planetary, star, single external-external mesh, or single external-internal mesh. The two stage system allows for modeling of the peripherals with an input mass and shaft, an output mass and shaft, and a connecting shaft. Execution of the initial test case indicated an instability in the solution with the tooth paid loads growing to excessive magnitudes. A procedure to trace the instability is recommended as well as a method of reducing the program's computation time by reducing the number of boundary condition iterations.

Clinically Available Medicines Demonstrating Anti-Toxoplasma Activity

PubMed Central

Neville, Andrew J.; Zach, Sydney J.; Wang, Xiaofang; Larson, Joshua J.; Judge, Abigail K.; Davis, Lisa A.; Vennerstrom, Jonathan L.

2015-01-01

Toxoplasma gondii is an apicomplexan parasite of humans and other mammals, including livestock and companion animals. While chemotherapeutic regimens, including pyrimethamine and sulfadiazine regimens, ameliorate acute or recrudescent disease such as toxoplasmic encephalitis or ocular toxoplasmosis, these drugs are often toxic to the host. Moreover, no approved options are available to treat infected women who are pregnant. Lastly, no drug regimen has shown the ability to eradicate the chronic stage of infection, which is characterized by chemoresistant intracellular cysts that persist for the life of the host. In an effort to promote additional chemotherapeutic options, we now evaluate clinically available drugs that have shown efficacy in disease models but which lack clinical case reports. Ideally, less-toxic treatments for the acute disease can be identified and developed, with an additional goal of cyst clearance from human and animal hosts. PMID:26392504

The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

2016-02-01

In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

Presentation a New Model to Measure National Power of the Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafeznia, Mohammad Reza; Hadi Zarghani, Seyed; Ahmadipor, Zahra; Roknoddin Eftekhari, Abdelreza

In this research, based on the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models. Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (economical, social, cultural, political, military, astro-space, territorial, scientific and technological and transnational), paying attention to the usage of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variables to the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure are some the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones.

Assessment of two-phase flow on the chemical alteration and sealing of leakage pathways in cemented wellbores

DOE PAGES

Iyer, Jaisree; Walsh, Stuart D. C.; Hao, Yue; ...

2018-01-08

Wellbore leakage tops the list of perceived risks to the long-term geologic storage of CO 2, because wells provide a direct path between the CO 2 storage reservoir and the atmosphere. In this paper, we have coupled a two-phase flow model with our original framework that combined models for reactive transport of carbonated brine, geochemistry of reacting cement, and geomechanics to predict the permeability evolution of cement fractures. Additionally, this makes the framework suitable for field conditions in geological storage sites, permitting simulation of contact between cement and mixtures of brine and supercritical CO 2. Due to lack of conclusivemore » experimental data, we tried both linear and Corey relative permeability models to simulate flow of the two phases in cement fractures. The model also includes two options to account for the inconsistent experimental observations regarding cement reactivity with two-phase CO 2-brine mixtures. One option assumes that the reactive surface area is independent of the brine saturation and the second option assumes that the reactive surface area is proportional to the brine saturation. We have applied the model to predict the extent of cement alteration, the conditions under which fractures seal, the time it takes to seal a fracture, and the leakage rates of CO 2 and brine when damage zones in the wellbore are exposed to two-phase CO 2-brine mixtures. Initial brine residence time and the initial fracture aperture are critical parameters that affect the fracture sealing behavior. We also evaluated the importance of the model assumptions regarding relative permeability and cement reactivity. These results illustrate the need to understand how mixtures of carbon dioxide and brine flow through fractures and react with cement to make reasonable predictions regarding well integrity. For example, a reduction in the cement reactivity with two-phase CO 2-brine mixture can not only significantly increase the sealing time for fractures but may also prevent fracture sealing.« less

Assessment of two-phase flow on the chemical alteration and sealing of leakage pathways in cemented wellbores

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iyer, Jaisree; Walsh, Stuart D. C.; Hao, Yue

Wellbore leakage tops the list of perceived risks to the long-term geologic storage of CO 2, because wells provide a direct path between the CO 2 storage reservoir and the atmosphere. In this paper, we have coupled a two-phase flow model with our original framework that combined models for reactive transport of carbonated brine, geochemistry of reacting cement, and geomechanics to predict the permeability evolution of cement fractures. Additionally, this makes the framework suitable for field conditions in geological storage sites, permitting simulation of contact between cement and mixtures of brine and supercritical CO 2. Due to lack of conclusivemore » experimental data, we tried both linear and Corey relative permeability models to simulate flow of the two phases in cement fractures. The model also includes two options to account for the inconsistent experimental observations regarding cement reactivity with two-phase CO 2-brine mixtures. One option assumes that the reactive surface area is independent of the brine saturation and the second option assumes that the reactive surface area is proportional to the brine saturation. We have applied the model to predict the extent of cement alteration, the conditions under which fractures seal, the time it takes to seal a fracture, and the leakage rates of CO 2 and brine when damage zones in the wellbore are exposed to two-phase CO 2-brine mixtures. Initial brine residence time and the initial fracture aperture are critical parameters that affect the fracture sealing behavior. We also evaluated the importance of the model assumptions regarding relative permeability and cement reactivity. These results illustrate the need to understand how mixtures of carbon dioxide and brine flow through fractures and react with cement to make reasonable predictions regarding well integrity. For example, a reduction in the cement reactivity with two-phase CO 2-brine mixture can not only significantly increase the sealing time for fractures but may also prevent fracture sealing.« less

Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options.

PubMed Central

Babad, H. R.; Nokes, D. J.; Gay, N. J.; Miller, E.; Morgan-Capner, P.; Anderson, R. M.

1995-01-01

Measles incidence in England and Wales has fallen to an all-time low. Attention is now focused on preventing local outbreaks, and, in the long run, on the elimination of indigenous measles. A realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model of measles transmission is used to reconstruct the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales from 1968 to the present and to evaluate the merits of future policy options. In general, the predictions of the model show good agreement with long-term age stratified case reports and seroprevalence surveys. The model underestimates the proportion of cases that are notified in 0-2-year-old children. However, recent work suggests a high degree of misdiagnosis in this age group. Projections on the basis of the existing vaccination strategy in the UK suggest that the present level of measles vaccine coverage will be insufficient to eliminate small seasonal outbreaks of measles. This result is, however, sensitive to the assumed level of vaccine efficacy. Explorations of a variety of changes to current vaccination strategy favour a 2-dose schedule with the second dose administered at age 4 years irrespective of vaccination history. A vaccination campaign in school-age children, to reduce deficits in herd immunity, would accelerate progress towards measles elimination. PMID:7705494

Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options.

PubMed

Babad, H R; Nokes, D J; Gay, N J; Miller, E; Morgan-Capner, P; Anderson, R M

1995-04-01

Measles incidence in England and Wales has fallen to an all-time low. Attention is now focused on preventing local outbreaks, and, in the long run, on the elimination of indigenous measles. A realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model of measles transmission is used to reconstruct the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales from 1968 to the present and to evaluate the merits of future policy options. In general, the predictions of the model show good agreement with long-term age stratified case reports and seroprevalence surveys. The model underestimates the proportion of cases that are notified in 0-2-year-old children. However, recent work suggests a high degree of misdiagnosis in this age group. Projections on the basis of the existing vaccination strategy in the UK suggest that the present level of measles vaccine coverage will be insufficient to eliminate small seasonal outbreaks of measles. This result is, however, sensitive to the assumed level of vaccine efficacy. Explorations of a variety of changes to current vaccination strategy favour a 2-dose schedule with the second dose administered at age 4 years irrespective of vaccination history. A vaccination campaign in school-age children, to reduce deficits in herd immunity, would accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Programmatic Re-Evaluation of Ion Exchange as a 1st Generation ITP Replacement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, A.B.

This re-evaluation differs from previous work in that (1) the Ion Exchange option was evaluated from a standpoint assuming that ITP would never start up, thus Ion Exchange was the only viable option, (2) the DOE prescribed balanced assumptions were quite different than the WSRC Assumptions used previously, and (3) other Site events and changes within HLWM have tended to reduce the disadvantages of Ion Exchange relative to ITP as the first generation salt decontamination process.

DISPOSITION PATHS FOR ROCKY FLATS GLOVEBOXES: EVALUATING OPTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobdell, D.; Geimer, R.; Larsen, P.

2003-02-27

The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC has the responsibility for closure activities at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS). One of the challenges faced for closure is the disposition of radiologically contaminated gloveboxes. Evaluation of the disposition options for gloveboxes included a detailed analysis of available treatment capabilities, disposal facilities, and lifecycle costs. The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC followed several processes in determining how the gloveboxes would be managed for disposition. Currently, multiple disposition paths have been chosen to accommodate the needs of the varying styles and conditions of the gloveboxes, meet the needs of the decommissioning team, and to best managemore » lifecycle costs. Several challenges associated with developing a disposition path that addresses both the radiological and RCRA concerns as well as offering the most cost-effective solution were encountered. These challenges included meeting the radiological waste acceptance criteria of available disposal facilities, making a RCRA determination, evaluating treatment options and costs, addressing void requirements associated with disposal, and identifying packaging and transportation options. The varying disposal facility requirements affected disposition choices. Facility conditions that impacted decisions included radiological and chemical waste acceptance criteria, physical requirements, and measurement for payment options. The facility requirements also impacted onsite activities including management strategies, decontamination activities, and life-cycle cost.« less

Modeling of Solid Waste Processing Options in BIO-Plex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Luis F.; Finn, Cory; Kang, Sukwon; Hogan, John; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

BIO-Plex is a ground-based test bed currently under development by NASA for testing technologies and practices that may be utilized in future long-term life support missions. All aspects of such an Advanced Life Support (ALS) System must be considered to confidently construct a reliable system, which will not only allow the crew to survive in harsh environments, but allow the crew time to perform meaningful research. Effective handling of solid wastes is a critical aspect of the system, especially when recovery of resources contained in the waste is required. This is particularly important for ALS Systems configurations that include a Biomass Production Chamber. In these cases, significant amounts of inedible biomass waste may be produced, which can ultimately serve as a repository of necessary resources for sustaining life, notably carbon, water, and plant nutrients. Numerous biological and physicochemical solid waste processing options have been considered. Biological options include composting, aerobic digestion, and anaerobic digestion. Physicochemical options include pyrolysis, SCWO (supercritical water oxidation), various incineration configurations, microwave incineration, magnetically assisted gasification, and low temperature plasma reaction. Modeling of these options is a necessary step to assist in the design process. A previously developed top-level model of BIO-Plex implemented in MATLAB Simulink (r) for the use of systems analysis and design has been adopted for this analysis. Presently, this model only considered incineration for solid waste processing. Present work, reported here, includes the expansion of this model to include a wider array of solid waste processing options selected from the above options, bearing in mind potential, near term solid waste treatment systems. Furthermore, a trade study has also been performed among these solid waste processing technologies in an effort to determine the ideal technology for long-term life support missions.

Lessons Learned From Early Implementation of Option B+: The Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation Experience in 11 African Countries

PubMed Central

Mattingly, Meghan; Giphart, Anja; van de Ven, Roland; Chouraya, Caspian; Walakira, Moses; Boon, Alexandre; Mikusova, Silvia; Simonds, R. J.

2014-01-01

Background: “Option B+” is a World Health Organization-recommended approach to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission whereby all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women initiate lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART). This review of early Option B+ implementation experience is intended to inform Ministries of Health and others involved in implementing Option B+. Methods: This implementation science study analyzed data from 11 African countries supported by the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation (EGPAF) to describe early experience implementing Option B+. Data are from 4 sources: (1) national guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and Option B+ implementation plans, (2) aggregated service delivery data between January 2013 and March 2014 from EGPAF-supported sites, (3) field visits to Option B+ implementation sites, and (4) relevant EGPAF research, quality improvement, and evaluation studies. Results: Rapid adoption of Option B+ led to large increases in percentage of HIV-positive pregnant women accessing ART in antenatal care. By the end of 2013, most programs reached at least 50% of HIV-positive women in antenatal care with ART, even in countries using a phased approach to implementation. Scaling up Option B+ through integrating ART in maternal and child health settings has required expansion of the workforce, and task shifting to allow nurse-led ART initiation has created staffing pressure on lower-level cadres for counseling and community follow-up. Complex data collection needs may be impairing data quality. Discussion: Early experiences with Option B+ implementation demonstrate promise. Continued program evaluation is needed, as is specific attention to counseling and support around initiation of lifetime ART in the context of pregnancy and lactation. PMID:25436817

Lessons learned from early implementation of option B+: the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation experience in 11 African countries.

PubMed

Kieffer, Mary Pat; Mattingly, Meghan; Giphart, Anja; van de Ven, Roland; Chouraya, Caspian; Walakira, Moses; Boon, Alexandre; Mikusova, Silvia; Simonds, R J

2014-12-01

"Option B+" is a World Health Organization-recommended approach to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission whereby all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women initiate lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART). This review of early Option B+ implementation experience is intended to inform Ministries of Health and others involved in implementing Option B+. This implementation science study analyzed data from 11 African countries supported by the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation (EGPAF) to describe early experience implementing Option B+. Data are from 4 sources: (1) national guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and Option B+ implementation plans, (2) aggregated service delivery data between January 2013 and March 2014 from EGPAF-supported sites, (3) field visits to Option B+ implementation sites, and (4) relevant EGPAF research, quality improvement, and evaluation studies. Rapid adoption of Option B+ led to large increases in percentage of HIV-positive pregnant women accessing ART in antenatal care. By the end of 2013, most programs reached at least 50% of HIV-positive women in antenatal care with ART, even in countries using a phased approach to implementation. Scaling up Option B+ through integrating ART in maternal and child health settings has required expansion of the workforce, and task shifting to allow nurse-led ART initiation has created staffing pressure on lower-level cadres for counseling and community follow-up. Complex data collection needs may be impairing data quality. Early experiences with Option B+ implementation demonstrate promise. Continued program evaluation is needed, as is specific attention to counseling and support around initiation of lifetime ART in the context of pregnancy and lactation.

Urban residents' response to and evaluation of low-carbon travel policies: Evidence from a survey of five eastern cities in China.

PubMed

Geng, Jichao; Long, Ruyin; Chen, Hong; Li, Qianwen

2018-07-01

To address the problems of excessive energy consumption and global climate change, the Chinese government has issued numerous policies to guide urban residents' low-carbon travel behavior. To evaluate the validity of these policies from the perspective of public opinion, this study summarizes 22 policies from the four vantage points of economics, administration, technology, and public information and then measures residents' response to and evaluation of policies based on survey data on 1977 urban residents using stratified random sampling in five cities in eastern China. The results indicate that from the viewpoint of policy response, administrative policies for promoting public transport show the highest degree of response, followed by public information, technological, and economic policies. Specifically, the responses to parking and congestion fee policies are relatively stronger than those to vehicle purchase tax, vehicle and vessel tax, and fuel surcharge policies. Moreover, the responses to fuel surcharge policy are even weaker than car-restriction policies, including license-plate number restriction, license-plate lottery, and license-plate auction policies. From the viewpoint of policy evaluation, administrative policies for promoting public transport obtain the highest evaluations, followed by economic and technological policies. Residents' evaluations of car-restriction and public information policies are the lowest. In addition, a four-paradigm model is introduced to illustrate residents' reactions to each policy in terms of response and evaluation. Finally, several implementation strategies, including the anterior, concurrent, optional, core, supporting, and assisting policy options are proposed to guide urban residents' low-carbon travel behavior. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of various cover scenarios on the rate of sulfide oxidation of mine tailings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Connie G.; Ulrich Mayer, K.; Jones, David R.; Ellerbroek, David A.; Blowes, David W.

2003-02-01

Long term environmentally sound disposal of the millions of tons of mining residue is a serious challenge to the international mining industry. This paper evaluates, through a numerical investigation, the potential performance of desulfurized tailings as a cover material for the reduction of acidic drainage from sulfidic tailings. This evaluation is facilitated through a comparison of various cover types as decommissioning options. The cover types considered consist of a desulfurized tailings material cover exposed to ambient climate conditions, a water cover (flooded tailings), and a combination cover type. As part of the evaluation of cover performances, the effect of climatic variability on the potential rate of sulfide oxidation in tailings with an open ground surface, was also assessed. The numerical analysis was conducted using the model PYROX, which was modified to allow for variably-saturated conditions, time varying moisture contents, and to account for the temperature dependence of Henry's law and gas diffusion. In the case study presented here, the benign cover material consists of a low sulfide waste stream (cassiterite float tails, CFT), a by-product of the production of tin concentrate (cassiterite, SnO 2). Modelling results after a simulation period of 100 years indicate that a water cover alone or an exposed CFT cover alone are both less effective options than the combined cover type. A water cover alone leads to a reduction of approximately 99.1%, in the oxidation rate relative to uncovered tailings while the combined cover type results in the lowest potential extent of sulfide oxidation after mine closure-an approximately 99.8% reduction. Importantly, a CFT cover exposed to ambient environmental conditions can still substantially reduce the sulfide oxidation rate, by approximately 75-82% over a 100-year time period, relative to uncovered tailings. Variability in precipitation (and hence percent saturation of the surface layer) had less of an effect on the potential sulfide oxidation rate than did the cover type. The performance of the exposed CFT cover varied by less than 10%, within the range of climatic conditions expected at the Renison Bell mine site in southwest Tasmania, Australia. Although the modelling results indicate that the combined water and CFT cover is the best option, this approach achieves only a minor improvement over the water cover alone.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

Utilizing Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) to Evaluate Entry Probe Mission Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. The "auxiliary profile" option is one new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005. This option uses an input file of temperature and density versus altitude to replace the mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. Any source of data or alternate model output can be used to generate an auxiliary profile. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree Ls bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) sites are used as a sample of how Mars-GRAM' could be a valuable tool for planning of future Mars entry probe missions. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate MSL landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

A Range-Normalization Model of Context-Dependent Choice: A New Model and Evidence

PubMed Central

Camerer, Colin

2012-01-01

Most utility theories of choice assume that the introduction of an irrelevant option (called the decoy) to a choice set does not change the preference between existing options. On the contrary, a wealth of behavioral data demonstrates the dependence of preference on the decoy and on the context in which the options are presented. Nevertheless, neural mechanisms underlying context-dependent preference are poorly understood. In order to shed light on these mechanisms, we design and perform a novel experiment to measure within-subject decoy effects. We find within-subject decoy effects similar to what have been shown previously with between-subject designs. More importantly, we find that not only are the decoy effects correlated, pointing to similar underlying mechanisms, but also these effects increase with the distance of the decoy from the original options. To explain these observations, we construct a plausible neuronal model that can account for decoy effects based on the trial-by-trial adjustment of neural representations to the set of available options. This adjustment mechanism, which we call range normalization, occurs when the nervous system is required to represent different stimuli distinguishably, while being limited to using bounded neural activity. The proposed model captures our experimental observations and makes new predictions about the influence of the choice set size on the decoy effects, which are in contrast to previous models of context-dependent choice preference. Critically, unlike previous psychological models, the computational resource required by our range-normalization model does not increase exponentially as the set size increases. Our results show that context-dependent choice behavior, which is commonly perceived as an irrational response to the presence of irrelevant options, could be a natural consequence of the biophysical limits of neural representation in the brain. PMID:22829761

MODELING CONCEPTS FOR BMP/LID SIMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Enhancement of simulation options for stormwater best management practices (BMPs) and hydrologic source control is discussed in the context of the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Options for improvement of various BMP representations are presented, with emphasis on inco...

Community Options Model): Using Artificial Intelligence for Transportation Planning and Community Decision Making

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This paper describes the Community Options Model for Transportation-Related Issues (COMTRI) designed to estimate the social and economic impacts of highway realignments on rural Michigan communities for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT...

Synthetic Nanovaccines Against Respiratory Pathogens (SYNARP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

platforms to other respiratory infections, such as pulmonary F. tularemia , and test the nanovaccines efficacy in animal models (unfunded option...such as pulmonary F. tularemia , and test the nanovaccines efficacy in animal models (unfunded option). BODY OF REPORT Platform A

Beyond usual care: the economic consequences of expanding treatment options in early pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Dalton, Vanessa K; Liang, Angela; Hutton, David W; Zochowski, Melissa K; Fendrick, A Mark

2015-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of expanding options for early pregnancy loss (EPL) treatment beyond expectant management and operating room surgical evacuation (usual care). We constructed a decision model using a hypothetical cohort of women undergoing EPL management within a 30 day horizon. Treatment options under the usual care arm include expectant management and surgical uterine evacuation in an operating room (OR). Treatment options under the expanded care arm included all evidence-based safe and effective treatment options for EPL: expectant management, misoprostol treatment, surgical uterine evacuation in an office setting, and surgical uterine evacuation in an OR. Probabilities of entering various treatment pathways were based on previously published observational studies. The cost per case was US $241.29 lower for women undergoing treatment in the expanded care model as compared with the usual care model (US $1033.29 per case vs US $1274.58 per case, expanded care and usual care, respectively). The model was the most sensitive to the failure rate of the expectant management arm, the cost of the OR surgical procedure, the proportion of women undergoing an OR surgical procedure under usual care, and the additional cost per patient associated with implementing and using the expanded care model. This study demonstrates that expanding women's treatment options for EPL beyond what is typically available can result in lower direct medical expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

As-built design specification for proportion estimate software subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, S. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Proportion Estimate Processor evaluates four estimation techniques in order to get an improved estimate of the proportion of a scene that is planted in a selected crop. The four techniques to be evaluated were provided by the techniques development section and are: (1) random sampling; (2) proportional allocation, relative count estimate; (3) proportional allocation, Bayesian estimate; and (4) sequential Bayesian allocation. The user is given two options for computation of the estimated mean square error. These are referred to as the cluster calculation option and the segment calculation option. The software for the Proportion Estimate Processor is operational on the IBM 3031 computer.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenning, B.D.

1994-12-31

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisionsmore » are being contemplated.« less

An initial evaluation of potential options for managing riparian reserves of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

Treesearch

Gordon H. Reeves; Brian R. Pickard; K. Norman Johnson

2016-01-01

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS) of the Northwest Forest Plan guides management of riparian and aquatic ecosystems on federal lands in western Oregon, western Washington, and northern California. We applied new scientific findings and tools to evaluate two potential options, A and B, for refining interim riparian reserves to meet ACS goals and likely challenges...

The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

An investigation of implied volatility during financial crisis: Evidence from Australian index options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah; Harun, Hanani Farhah

2014-10-01

Volatility implied by an option pricing model is seen as the market participants' assessment of volatility. Past studies documented that implied volatility based on an option pricing model is found to outperform the historical volatility in forecasting future realised volatility. Thus, this study examines the implied volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index options from the year 2001 to 2010, which covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007 until the end of 2008. The results show that the implied volatility rises significantly during the crisis period, which is three time the rate before crisis.

Professional commitment of home science college teachers in India, its relationship to personal and professional characteristics and to organizational climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Ansuya U.

The rapidly expanding oil sands of western Canada, the third largest reserves in the world, are creating serious challenges, such as ecological harm, labour shortages, and extensive natural gas consumption. This thesis develops three practical real options models to evaluate the feasibility of oil sands projects and to estimate the optimal rate of oil sands expansion, while accounting for the stated concerns. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Evaluation of Shelter Ventilation by Model Tests. Option 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

HUMUERS, 7449 N. Natchez Ave. FEMPL Work Unit 12.171 Niles, Illinois 60648 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS IL REPORT DATE Federal Emergency...lights could be controlled through a voltage regulator. These lights 2-1 GARD ELEVATION VIEW Earth Berm Wndow 3’ x 3’ Winindow Interior of Shelter 32...Nationale 1 36 Rue J. B. Esch Luxembourg (Grand-Duche) Ministero dell Interno 1 Director General Protectione Civile Rome, Italy Civile Emergency Planning

The changing face of long-term care: looking at the past decade.

PubMed

Ragsdale, Vickie; McDougall, Graham J

2008-09-01

Baby boomers on the verge of retirement who are considering future long-term care needs are searching for options that will promote comfort and quality of life in an environment comparable to the home left behind. Culture change is taking on different faces throughout long-term care, moving from a traditional medical model towards a holistic approach. New models of care address individual needs of the aging population. This article has three aims: (1) to evaluate the current state of culture change throughout long-term care, (2) to describe models of change seen among the long-term care industry, and (3) to report on existing work comparing the Green House Model of Care to two traditional nursing homes in Tupelo, Mississippi.

Evaluation of cleaner production options in dyeing and printing industry: Using combination weighting method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Hong; Zhang, Yun; Hou, Haochen; Sun, Xiaoyang; Qin, Chenglu

2018-03-01

The textile industry has a high environmental impact so that implementing cleaner production audit is an effective way to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction. But the evaluation method in current cleaner production audit divided the evaluation of CPOs into two parts: environment and economy. The evaluation index system was constructed from three criteria of environment benefits, economy benefits and product performance; weights of five indicators were determined by combination weights of entropy method and factor weight sorting method. Then efficiencies were evaluated comprehensively. The results showed that the best alkali recovery option was the nanofiltration membrane method (S=0.80).

Thorium Fuel Cycle Option Screening in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taiwo, Temitope A.; Kim, Taek K.; Wigeland, Roald A.

2016-05-01

As part of a nuclear fuel cycle Evaluation and Screening (E&S) study, a wide-range of thorium fuel cycle options were evaluated and their performance characteristics and challenges to implementation were compared to those of other nuclear fuel cycle options based on criteria specified by the Nuclear Energy Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The evaluated nuclear fuel cycles included the once-through, limited, and continuous recycle options using critical or externally-driven nuclear energy systems. The E&S study found that the continuous recycle of 233U/Th in fuel cycles using either thermal or fast reactors is an attractive promising fuel cyclemore » option with high effective fuel resource utilization and low waste generation, but did not perform quite as well as the continuous recycle of Pu/U using a fast critical system, which was identified as one of the most promising fuel cycle options in the E&S study. This is because compared to their uranium counterparts the thorium-based systems tended to have higher radioactivity in the short term (about 100 years post irradiation) because of differences in the fission product yield curves, and in the long term (100,000 years post irradiation) because of the decay of 233U and daughters, and because of higher mass flow rates due to lower discharge burnups. Some of the thorium-based systems also require enriched uranium support, which tends to be detrimental to resource utilization and waste generation metrics. Finally, similar to the need for developing recycle fuel fabrication, fuels separations and fast reactors for the most promising options using Pu/U recycle, the future thorium-based fuel cycle options with continuous recycle would also require such capabilities, although their deployment challenges are expected to be higher since such facilities have not been developed in the past to a comparable level of maturity for Th-based systems.« less

A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

PubMed

Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

2013-03-01

The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Flexibility Options on Grid Economic Carrying Capacity of Solar and Wind: Three Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denholm, Paul; Novacheck, Joshua; Jorgenson, Jennie

In this study, we attempt to quantify the benefits of various options of grid flexibility by measuring their impact on two measures: economic carrying capacity and system costs. Flexibility can increase economic carrying capacity and reduce overall system costs. In some cases, options that provide a limited increase in economic carrying capacity can provide significant operational savings, thus demonstrating the need to evaluate flexibility options using multiple metrics. The value of flexibility options varies regionally due to different generation mixes and types of renewables. The more rapid decline in PV value compared to wind makes PV more dependent on addingmore » flexibility options, including transmission and energy storage.« less

Initial programmatic implementation of WHO option B in Botswana associated with increased projected MTCT.

PubMed

Dryden-Peterson, Scott; Lockman, Shahin; Zash, Rebecca; Lei, Quonhong; Chen, Jennifer Y; Souda, Sajini; Petlo, Chipo; Dintwa, Eldah; Lebelonyane, Refeletswe; Mmalane, Mompati; Shapiro, Roger L

2015-03-01

: Botswana was one of the first African countries to transition from WHO Option A to Option B for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT). We evaluated the impact of this transition on projected MTCT risk through review of 10,681 obstetric records of HIV-infected women delivering at 6 maternity wards. Compared with Option A, women receiving antenatal care under Option B were more likely to receive combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.59 (95% confidence interval: 2.25 to 2.98), but they were also more likely to receive no antenatal antiretrovirals, aOR: 2.10 (95% confidence interval: 1.74 to 2.53). Consequently, initial implementation of Option B was associated with increased projected MTCT at 6 months of age, 3.79% under Option A and 4.69% under Option B (P < 0.001). Successful implementation of Option B or B+ may require that ART can be initiated within antenatal clinics, and novel strategies to remove barriers to rapid ART initiation.

Quantum Mechanics, Path Integrals and Option Pricing:. Reducing the Complexity of Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2003-04-01

Quantum Finance represents the synthesis of the techniques of quantum theory (quantum mechanics and quantum field theory) to theoretical and applied finance. After a brief overview of the connection between these fields, we illustrate some of the methods of lattice simulations of path integrals for the pricing of options. The ideas are sketched out for simple models, such as the Black-Scholes model, where analytical and numerical results are compared. Application of the method to nonlinear systems is also briefly overviewed. More general models, for exotic or path-dependent options are discussed.

Inferential and forward projection modeling to evaluate options for controlling invasive mammals on islands.

PubMed

Anderson, D P; McMurtrie, P; Edge, K-A; Baxter, P W J; Byrom, A E

2016-12-01

Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options one and two. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a two-stage modeling approach that consisted of (1) Bayesian inferential modeling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control, and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats (Mustela erminea) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness, and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modeling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a two-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The two-stage modeling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

2012-01-01

Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

Optimizing the Logistics of Anaerobic Digestion of Manure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghafoori, Emad; Flynn, Peter C.

Electrical power production from the combustion of biogas from anaerobic digestion (AD) of manure is a means of recovering energy from animal waste. We evaluate the lowest cost method of moving material to and from centralized AD plants serving multiple confined feeding operations. Two areas are modeled, Lethbridge County, Alberta, Canada, an area of concentrated beef cattle feedlots, and Red Deer County, Alberta, a mixed-farming area with hog, dairy, chicken and beef cattle farms, and feedlots. We evaluate two types of AD plant: ones that return digestate to the source confined feeding operation for land spreading (current technology), and ones that process digestate to produce solid fertilizer and a dischargeable water stream (technology under development). We evaluate manure and digestate trucking, trucking of manure with return of digestate by pipelines, and pipelining of manure plus digestate. We compare the overall cost of power from these scenarios to farm or feedlot-based AD units. For a centralized AD plant with digestate return for land spreading the most economical transport option for manure plus digestate is by truck for the mixed-farming area and by pipelines for the concentrated feedlot area. For a centralized AD plant with digestate processing, the most economical transport option is trucking of manure for both cases.

Numerical methods on European option second order asymptotic expansions for multiscale stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canhanga, Betuel; Ni, Ying; Rančić, Milica; Malyarenko, Anatoliy; Silvestrov, Sergei

2017-01-01

After Black-Scholes proposed a model for pricing European Options in 1973, Cox, Ross and Rubinstein in 1979, and Heston in 1993, showed that the constant volatility assumption made by Black-Scholes was one of the main reasons for the model to be unable to capture some market details. Instead of constant volatilities, they introduced stochastic volatilities to the asset dynamic modeling. In 2009, Christoffersen empirically showed "why multifactor stochastic volatility models work so well". Four years later, Chiarella and Ziveyi solved the model proposed by Christoffersen. They considered an underlying asset whose price is governed by two factor stochastic volatilities of mean reversion type. Applying Fourier transforms, Laplace transforms and the method of characteristics they presented a semi-analytical formula to compute an approximate price for American options. The huge calculation involved in the Chiarella and Ziveyi approach motivated the authors of this paper in 2014 to investigate another methodology to compute European Option prices on a Christoffersen type model. Using the first and second order asymptotic expansion method we presented a closed form solution for European option, and provided experimental and numerical studies on investigating the accuracy of the approximation formulae given by the first order asymptotic expansion. In the present paper we will perform experimental and numerical studies for the second order asymptotic expansion and compare the obtained results with results presented by Chiarella and Ziveyi.

Engineered Option Treatment of Remediated Nitrate Salts: Surrogate Batch-Blending Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anast, Kurt Roy

2016-03-11

This report provides results from batch-blending test work for remediated nitrate salt (RNS) treatment. Batch blending was identified as a preferred option for blending RNS and unremediated nitrate salt (UNS) material with zeolite to effectively safe the salt/Swheat material identified as ignitable (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency code D001). Blending with zeolite was the preferred remediation option identified in the Options Assessment Report and was originally proposed as the best option for remediation by Clark and Funk in their report, Chemical Reactivity and Recommended Remediation Strategy for Los Alamos Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) Wastes, and also found to be a preferredmore » option in the Engineering Options Assessment Report: Nitrate Salt Waste Stream Processing. This test work evaluated equipment and recipe alternatives to achieve effective blending of surrogate waste with zeolite.« less

Investigation of Advanced Radar Techniques for Atmospheric Hazard Detection with Airborne Weather Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pazmany, Andrew L.

2014-01-01

In 2013 ProSensing Inc. conducted a study to investigate the hazard detection potential of aircraft weather radars with new measurement capabilities, such as multi-frequency, polarimetric and radiometric modes. Various radar designs and features were evaluated for sensitivity, measurement range and for detecting and quantifying atmospheric hazards in wide range of weather conditions. Projected size, weight, power consumption and cost of the various designs were also considered. Various cloud and precipitation conditions were modeled and used to conduct an analytic evaluation of the design options. This report provides an overview of the study and summarizes the conclusions and recommendations.

Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds.

PubMed

Davidson, Ross S; McKendrick, Iain J; Wood, Joanna C; Marion, Glenn; Greig, Alistair; Stevenson, Karen; Sharp, Michael; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-09-10

A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data. A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model's resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates. The technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

2014-01-01

A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

78 FR 36002 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-14

... models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied volatilities for a range of.... OCC has proposed at this time to clear only OTC Options on the S&P 500 index and only such options...

Advanced life support study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Summary reports on each of the eight tasks undertaken by this contract are given. Discussed here is an evaluation of a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS), including modeling and analysis of Physical/Chemical Closed Loop Life Support (P/C CLLS); the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) evolution - Intermodule Ventilation study; advanced technologies interface requirements relative to ECLSS; an ECLSS resupply analysis; the ECLSS module addition relocation systems engineering analysis; an ECLSS cost/benefit analysis to identify rack-level interface requirements of the alternate technologies evaluated in the ventilation study, with a comparison of these with the rack level interface requirements for the baseline technologies; advanced instrumentation - technology database enhancement; and a clean room survey and assessment of various ECLSS evaluation options for different growth scenarios.

Advances in mobile mental health: opportunities and implications for the spectrum of e-mental health services

PubMed Central

Chan, Steven; Hwang, Tiffany; Wong, Alice; Bauer, Amy M.

2017-01-01

Mobile health (mHealth), telemedicine and other technology-based services facilitate mental health service delivery and may be considered part of an e-mental health (eMH) spectrum of care. Web- and Internet-based resources provide a great opportunity for the public, patients, healthcare providers and others to improve wellness, practice prevention and reduce suffering from illnesses. Mobile apps offer portability for access anytime/anywhere, are inexpensive versus traditional desktop computers, and have additional features (e.g., context-aware interventions and sensors with real-time feedback. This paper discusses mobile mental health (mMH) options, as part of a broader framework of eMH options. The evidence-based literature shows that many people have an openness to technology as a way to help themselves, change behaviors and engage additional clinical services. Studies show that traditional video-based synchronous telepsychiatry (TP) is as good as in-person service, but mHealth outcomes have been rarely, directly compared to in-person and other eMH care options. Similarly, technology options added to in-person care or combined with others have not been evaluated nor linked with specific goals and desired outcomes. Skills and competencies for clinicians are needed for mHealth, social media and other new technologies in the eMH spectrum, in addition to research by randomized trials and study of health service delivery models with an emphasis on effectiveness. PMID:28894744

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Space Station Systems Analysis Study. Volume 1: Executive summary, part 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The elements of space station programs required to support an operational base theme, a space laboratory theme, and advanced missions relatable to public needs/national interests are defined. Missions satisfying the foregoing requirements are identified, program scenarios/options are established. System options are evaluated for a selected number of program options. Subsystem analysis and programmatic comparisons are performed for selected primary concepts.

An audience-channel-message-evaluation (ACME) framework for health communication campaigns.

PubMed

Noar, Seth M

2012-07-01

Recent reviews of the literature have indicated that a number of health communication campaigns continue to fail to adhere to principles of effective campaign design. The lack of an integrated, organizing framework for the design, implementation, and evaluation of health communication campaigns may contribute to this state of affairs. The current article introduces an audience-channel-message-evaluation (ACME) framework that organizes the major principles of health campaign design, implementation, and evaluation. ACME also explicates the relationships and linkages between the varying principles. Insights from ACME include the following: The choice of audience segment(s) to focus on in a campaign affects all other campaign design choices, including message strategy and channel/component options. Although channel selection influences options for message design, choice of message design also influences channel options. Evaluation should not be thought of as a separate activity, but rather should be infused and integrated throughout the campaign design and implementation process, including formative, process, and outcome evaluation activities. Overall, health communication campaigns that adhere to this integrated set of principles of effective campaign design will have a greater chance of success than those using principles idiosyncratically. These design, implementation, and evaluation principles are embodied in the ACME framework.

Risky forward interest rates and swaptions: Quantum finance model and empirical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal Ehsan; Yu, Miao; Bhanap, Jitendra

2018-02-01

Risk free forward interest rates (Diebold and Li, 2006 [1]; Jamshidian, 1991 [2 ]) - and their realization by US Treasury bonds as the leading exemplar - have been studied extensively. In Baaquie (2010), models of risk free bonds and their forward interest rates based on the quantum field theoretic formulation of the risk free forward interest rates have been discussed, including the empirical evidence supporting these models. The quantum finance formulation of risk free forward interest rates is extended to the case of risky forward interest rates. The examples of the Singapore and Malaysian forward interest rates are used as specific cases. The main feature of the quantum finance model is that the risky forward interest rates are modeled both a) as a stand-alone case as well as b) being driven by the US forward interest rates plus a spread - having its own term structure -above the US forward interest rates. Both the US forward interest rates and the term structure for the spread are modeled by a two dimensional Euclidean quantum field. As a precursor to the evaluation of put option of the Singapore coupon bond, the quantum finance model for swaptions is tested using empirical study of swaptions for the US Dollar -showing that the model is quite accurate. A prediction for the market price of the put option for the Singapore coupon bonds is obtained. The quantum finance model is generalized to study the Malaysian case and the Malaysian forward interest rates are shown to have anomalies absent for the US and Singapore case. The model's prediction for a Malaysian interest rate swap is obtained.

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comstock, Douglas A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segments for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

1992-01-01

This report presents a summary of results from a 7 year program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program was composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addressed the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigated the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involved experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material formed the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: group of zone axes (001), group of zone axes (011), group of zone axes (111), and group of zone axes (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal materials were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were developed for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. A life model was developed for smooth and notched fatigue in the option program. Finally, computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive and life models was developed.

Evaluation of bus management options for Independence National Historical Site

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-07-06

This project analyzes options and identifies preferred designs for a new transportation center in Independence National Historical Park. The Independence Transportation Center will be part of a planned National Constitution Center at Independence Mal...

Evaluating Space Weather Architecture Options to Support Human Deep Space Exploration of the Moon and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L.; Minow, J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Fry, D.; Semones, E.; Allen, J.; St Cyr, C.; Mertens, C.; Jun, I.; Onsager, T.; Hock, R.

2018-02-01

NASA's Engineering and Space Center (NESC) is conducting an independent technical assessment of space environment monitoring and forecasting architecture options to support human and robotic deep space exploration.

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options: Architectural options and selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, W. G.

1983-01-01

The approach, study results, and recommendations for defining and selecting space station architectural options are described. Space station system architecture is defined as the arrangement of elements (manned and unmanned on-orbit facilities, shuttle vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles, etc.), the number of these elements, their location (orbital inclination and altitude, and their functional performance capability, power, volume, crew, etc.). Architectural options are evaluated based on the degree of mission capture versus cost and required funding rate. Mission capture refers to the number of missions accommodated by the particular architecture.

Unified Program Design: Organizing Existing Programming Models, Delivery Options, and Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubenstein, Lisa DaVia; Ridgley, Lisa M.

2017-01-01

A persistent problem in the field of gifted education has been the lack of categorization and delineation of gifted programming options. To address this issue, we propose Unified Program Design as a structural framework for gifted program models. This framework defines gifted programs as the combination of delivery methods and curriculum models.…

The valuation of currency options by fractional Brownian motion.

PubMed

Shokrollahi, Foad; Kılıçman, Adem

2016-01-01

This research aims to investigate a model for pricing of currency options in which value governed by the fractional Brownian motion model (FBM). The fractional partial differential equation and some Greeks are also obtained. In addition, some properties of our pricing formula and simulation studies are presented, which demonstrate that the FBM model is easy to use.

Engagement in Retirement: An Evaluation of the Effect of Active Mentoring on Engagement of Older Adults with Intellectual Disability in Mainstream Community Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chng, J. P. L.; Stancliffe, R. J.; Wilson, N. J.; Anderson, K.

2013-01-01

Background: As adults with intellectual disability age, retirement options need to be explored. One option is to attend a mainstream community group for retirees. Support within these groups could come from group members who are trained to act as mentors for the older adults with intellectual disability. This research evaluated a support training…

Towards more sustainable management of European food waste: Methodological approach and numerical application.

PubMed

Manfredi, Simone; Cristobal, Jorge

2016-09-01

Trying to respond to the latest policy needs, the work presented in this article aims at developing a life-cycle based framework methodology to quantitatively evaluate the environmental and economic sustainability of European food waste management options. The methodology is structured into six steps aimed at defining boundaries and scope of the evaluation, evaluating environmental and economic impacts and identifying best performing options. The methodology is able to accommodate additional assessment criteria, for example the social dimension of sustainability, thus moving towards a comprehensive sustainability assessment framework. A numerical case study is also developed to provide an example of application of the proposed methodology to an average European context. Different options for food waste treatment are compared, including landfilling, composting, anaerobic digestion and incineration. The environmental dimension is evaluated with the software EASETECH, while the economic assessment is conducted based on different indicators expressing the costs associated with food waste management. Results show that the proposed methodology allows for a straightforward identification of the most sustainable options for food waste, thus can provide factual support to decision/policy making. However, it was also observed that results markedly depend on a number of user-defined assumptions, for example on the choice of the indicators to express the environmental and economic performance. © The Author(s) 2016.

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Monte Carlo methods for multidimensional integration for European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorov, V.; Dimov, I. T.

2016-10-01

In this paper, we illustrate examples of highly accurate Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods for multiple integrals related to the evaluation of European style options. The idea is that the value of the option is formulated in terms of the expectation of some random variable; then the average of independent samples of this random variable is used to estimate the value of the option. First we obtain an integral representation for the value of the option using the risk neutral valuation formula. Then with an appropriations change of the constants we obtain a multidimensional integral over the unit hypercube of the corresponding dimensionality. Then we compare a specific type of lattice rules over one of the best low discrepancy sequence of Sobol for numerical integration. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are compared with Adaptive and Crude Monte Carlo techniques for solving the problem. The four approaches are completely different thus it is a question of interest to know which one of them outperforms the other for evaluation multidimensional integrals in finance. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of the developed algorithms are discussed.

Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

2013-02-01

According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

Hamiltonian and potentials in derivative pricing models: exact results and lattice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2004-03-01

The pricing of options, warrants and other derivative securities is one of the great success of financial economics. These financial products can be modeled and simulated using quantum mechanical instruments based on a Hamiltonian formulation. We show here some applications of these methods for various potentials, which we have simulated via lattice Langevin and Monte Carlo algorithms, to the pricing of options. We focus on barrier or path dependent options, showing in some detail the computational strategies involved.

Kinematic and fatigue biomechanics of an interpositional facet arthroplasty device.

PubMed

Dahl, Michael C; Freeman, Andrew L

2016-04-01

Although approximately 30% of chronic lumbar pain can be attributed to the facets, limited surgical options exist for patients. Interpositional facet arthroplasty (IFA) is a novel treatment for lumbar facetogenic pain designed to provide patients who gain insufficient relief from medical interventional treatment options with long-term relief, filling a void in the facet pain treatment continuum. This study aimed to quantify the effect of IFA on segmental range of motion (ROM) compared with the intact state, and to observe device position and condition after 10,000 cycles of worst-case loading. In situ biomechanical analysis of the lumbar spine following implantation of a novel IFA device was carried out. Twelve cadaveric functional spinal units (L2-L3 and L5-S1) were tested in 7.5 Nm flexion-extension, lateral bending, and torsion while intact and following device implantation. Additionally, specimens underwent 10,000 cycles of worst-case complex loading and were testing in ROM again. Load-displacement and fluoroscopic data were analyzed to determine ROM and to evaluate device position during cyclic testing. Devices and facets were evaluated post testing. Institutional support for implant evaluation was received by Zyga Technology. Range of motion post implantation decreased versus intact, and then was restored post cyclic-testing. Of the tested devices, 6.5% displayed slight movement (0.5-2 mm), all from tight L2-L3 facet joints with misplaced devices or insufficient cartilage. No damage was observed on the devices, and wear patterns were primarily linear. The results from this in situ cadaveric biomechanics and cyclic fatigue study demonstrate that a low-profile, conformable IFA device can maintain position and facet functionality post implantation and through 10,000 complex loading cycles. In vivo conditions were not accounted for in this model, which may affect implant behavior not predictable via a biomechanical study. However, these data along with published 1-year clinical results suggest that IFA may be a valid treatment option in patients with chronic lumbar zygapophysial pain who have exhausted medical interventional options. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation into the optimal number of distractors in single-best answer exams.

PubMed

Kilgour, James M; Tayyaba, Saadia

2016-08-01

In UK medical schools, five-option single-best answer (SBA) questions are the most widely accepted format of summative knowledge assessment. However, writing SBA questions with four effective incorrect options is difficult and time consuming, and consequently, many SBAs contain a high frequency of implausible distractors. Previous research has suggested that fewer than five-options could hence be used for assessment, without deterioration in quality. Despite an existing body of empirical research in this area however, evidence from undergraduate medical education is sparse. The study investigated the frequency of non-functioning distractors in a sample of 480 summative SBA questions at Cardiff University. Distractor functionality was analysed, and then various question models were tested to investigate the impact of reducing the number of distractors per question on examination difficulty, reliability, discrimination and pass rates. A survey questionnaire was additionally administered to 108 students (33 % response rate) to gain insight into their perceptions of these models. The simulation of various exam models revealed that, for four and three-option SBA models, pass rates, reliability, and mean item discrimination remained relatively constant. The average percentage mark however consistently increased by 1-3 % with the four and three-option models, respectively. The questionnaire survey revealed that the student body had mixed views towards the proposed format change. This study is one of the first to comprehensively investigate distractor performance in SBA examinations in undergraduate medical education. It provides evidence to suggest that using three-option SBA questions would maximise efficiency whilst maintaining, or possibly improving, psychometric quality, through allowing a greater number of questions per exam paper.

Improving Dementia Long-Term Care

PubMed Central

Shih, Regina A.; Concannon, Thomas W.; Liu, Jodi L.; Friedman, Esther M.

2014-01-01

Abstract In 2010, 15 percent of Americans older than age 70 had dementia, and the number of new dementia cases among those 65 and older is expected to double by the year 2050. As the baby boomer generation ages, many older adults will require dementia-related long-term services and supports (LTSS). This blueprint is the only national document to date that engages local, state, and national stakeholders to specifically focus on policy options at the intersection of dementia and LTSS. The authors undertook five major tasks that resulted in a prioritized list of policy options and research directions to help decisionmakers improve the dementia LTSS delivery system, workforce, and financing. These were to (1) identify weaknesses in the LTSS system that may be particularly severe for persons with dementia; (2) review national and state strategies addressing dementia or LTSS policy; (3) identify policy options from the perspective of a diverse group of stakeholders; (4) evaluate the policy options; and (5) prioritize policy options by impact and feasibility. Stakeholders identified 38 policy options. RAND researchers independently evaluated these options against prespecified criteria, settling on 25 priority options. These policy options can be summarized into five objectives for the dementia LTSS system: (1) increase public awareness of dementia to reduce stigma and promote earlier detection; (2) improve access to and use of LTSS; (3) promote high-quality, person- and caregiver-centered care; (4) provide better support for family caregivers of people with dementia; and (5) reduce the burden of dementia LTSS costs on individuals and families. This policy blueprint provides a foundation upon which to build consensus among a larger set of stakeholders to set priorities and the sequencing of policy recommendations. PMID:28083331

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Version 2.0: Program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman

1993-01-01

This Program User's Guide discusses the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design features and capabilities modeled in the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS): Version 2.0 program (referred to as NESS throughout the remainder of this document), as well as its operation. NESS was upgraded to include many new modeling capabilities not available in the original version delivered to NASA LeRC in Dec. 1991, NESS's new features include the following: (1) an improved input format; (2) an advanced solid-core NERVA-type reactor system model (ENABLER 2); (3) a bleed-cycle engine system option; (4) an axial-turbopump design option; (5) an automated pump-out turbopump assembly sizing option; (6) an off-design gas generator engine cycle design option; (7) updated hydrogen properties; (8) an improved output format; and (9) personal computer operation capability. Sample design cases are presented in the user's guide that demonstrate many of the new features associated with this upgraded version of NESS, as well as design modeling features associated with the original version of NESS.

Mesenchymal Stem Cell-Derived Exosomes: Immunomodulatory Evaluation in an Antigen-Induced Synovitis Porcine Model

PubMed Central

Casado, Javier G.; Blázquez, Rebeca; Vela, Francisco Javier; Álvarez, Verónica; Tarazona, Raquel; Sánchez-Margallo, Francisco Miguel

2017-01-01

Synovitis is an inflammatory process associated with pain, disability, and discomfort, which is usually treated with anti-inflammatory drugs or biological agents. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been also successfully used in the treatment of inflammatory-related diseases such as synovitis or arthritis. In the last years, the exosomes derived from MSCs have become a promising tool for the treatment of inflammatory-related diseases and their therapeutic effect is thought to be mediated (at least in part) by their immunomodulatory potential. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the anti-inflammatory effect of these exosomes in an antigen-induced synovitis animal model. To our knowledge, this is the first report where exosomes derived from MSCs have been evaluated in an animal model of synovitis. Our results demonstrated a decrease of synovial lymphocytes together with a downregulation of TNF-α transcripts in those exosome-treated joints. These results support the immunomodulatory effect of these exosomes and point out that they may represent a promising therapeutic option for the treatment of synovitis. PMID:28377922

EVALUATION OF PERMEABLE REACTIVE BARRIER PERFORMANCE

EPA Science Inventory

The permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology represents a passive option for long-term treatment of ground-water contamination. PRBs are a potentially more cost-effective treatment option for a variety of dissolved contaminants, such as certain types of chlorinated solvents, ...

Results of focus group assessments of transportation financing options.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

The Wisconsin Commission on Transportation Finance and Policy was created in the 2011-2013 biennial state budget to : identify and evaluate transportation finance options to address needs into the future. As part of its scope, the Commission : needed...

Airline energy conservation options : summary options

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-07-27

In late May, 1973 the task of determining and evaluating measures for conserving fuel consumed by the airline industry was undertaken. This task was a part of the larger effort conducted by the Transportation Systems Center to determine measures that...

Assessment of adaptation measures to high-mountain risks in Switzerland under climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Lontzek, Thomas; Huggel, Christian; Ott, Philipp; Salzmann, Nadine

2015-04-01

The economic evaluation of different adaptation options is important to support policy-makers that need to set priorities in the decision-making process. However, the decision-making process faces considerable uncertainties regarding current and projected climate impacts. First, physical climate and related impact systems are highly complex and not fully understood. Second, the further we look into the future, the more important the emission pathways become, with effects on the frequency and severity of climate impacts. Decision on adaptation measures taken today and in the future must be able to adequately consider the uncertainties originating from the different sources. Decisions are not taken in a vacuum but always in the context of specific social, economic, institutional and political conditions. Decision finding processes strongly depend on the socio-political system and usually have evolved over some time. Finding and taking decisions in the respective socio-political and economic context multiplies the uncertainty challenge. Our presumption is that a sound assessment of the different adaptation options in Switzerland under uncertainty necessitates formulating and solving a dynamic, stochastic optimization problem. Economic optimization models in the field of climate change are not new. Typically, such models are applied for global-scale studies but barely for local-scale problems. In this analysis, we considered the case of the Guttannen-Grimsel Valley, situated in the Swiss Bernese Alps. The alpine community has been affected by high-magnitude, high-frequency debris flows that started in 2009 and were historically unprecendented. They were related to thaw of permafrost in the rock slopes of Ritzlihorn and repeated rock fall events that accumulated at the debris fan and formed a sediment source for debris flows and were transported downvalley. An important transit road, a trans-European gas pipeline and settlements were severely affected and partly destroyed. Several adaptation measures were discussed by the responsible authorities but decision making is particularly challenging under multiple uncertainties. For this area, we developed a stochastic optimization model for concrete and real-case adaptation options and measures and use dynamic programming to explore the optimal adaptation decisions under uncertainty in face of uncertain impacts from climate change of debris flows and flooding. Even though simplification needed to be made the results produced were concrete and tangible, indicating that excavation is a preferable adaptation option based on our assumption and modeling in comparison to building a dam or relocation, which is not necessarily intuitive and adds an additional perspective to what has so far been sketched and evaluated by cantonal and communal authorities for Guttannen. Moreover, the building of an alternative cantonal road appears to be more expensive than costs incurring due to road closure.

Surgical option for the correction of Peyronie's disease: an autologous tissue-engineered endothelialized graft.

PubMed

Imbeault, Annie; Bernard, Geneviève; Ouellet, Gabrielle; Bouhout, Sara; Carrier, Serge; Bolduc, Stéphane

2011-11-01

Surgical treatment is indicated in severe cases of Peyronie's disease. Incision of the plaque with subsequent graft material implantation is the option of choice. Ideal graft tissue is not yet available. To evaluate the use of an autologous tissue-engineered endothelialized graft by the self-assembly method, for tunica albuginea (TA) reconstruction in Peyronie's disease. Two TA models were created. Human fibroblasts were isolated from a skin biopsy and cultured in vitro until formation of fibroblast sheets. After 4 weeks of maturation, human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were seeded on fibroblasts sheets and wrapped around a tubular support to form a cylinder of about 10 layers. After 21 days of tube maturation, HUVEC were seeded into the lumen of the fibroblast tubes for the endothelialized tunica albuginea (ETA). No HUVEC were seeded into the lumen for the TA model. Both constructs were placed under perfusion in a bioreactor for 1 week. Histology, immunohistochemistry, and burst pressure were performed to characterize mature tubular graft. Animal manipulations were also performed to demonstrate the impact of endothelial cells in vivo. Histology showed uniform multilayered fibroblasts. Extracellular matrix, produced entirely by fibroblasts, presented a good staining for collagen 1. Some elastin fibers were also present. For the TA model, anti-human von Willebrand antibody revealed the endothelial cells forming capillary-like structures. TA model reached a burst pressure of 584 mm Hg and ETA model obtained a burst pressure of 719 mm Hg. This tissue-engineered endothelialized tubular graft is structurally similar to normal TA and presents an adequate mechanical resistance. The self-assembly method used and the autologous property of this model could represent an advantage comparatively to other available grafts. Further evaluation including functional testing will be necessary to characterize in vivo implantation and behavior of the graft. © 2011 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

2011-01-01

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions. 

Education Model Program on Water-Energy Research: A New STEM Graduate Program from Development through Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCay, D.; Fiorenza, P.; Lautz, L.

2017-12-01

More than half of Ph.D. scientists and engineers find employment in non-academic sectors. Recognizing the range of career options for graduate degree holders and the need to align graduate education with the expectations of prospective employers, the National Science Foundation (NSF) created the NSF Research Traineeship (NRT) program. To date, over 100 NRT programs have been funded. As these programs are implemented, it is important to assess their progress, successes, and challenges. This presentation describes the ongoing evaluation of one NRT program, "Education Model Program on Water-Energy Research" (or EMPOWER) at Syracuse University. Through seminars, mini-grants, professional development activities, field courses, internship opportunities, and coursework, EMPOWER's goal is to equip students with the skills needed for the range of career options in water and energy. In collaboration with an external evaluator, EMPOWER is examining the fidelity of the program to proposed goals, providing feedback to inform project improvement (formative assessment) and assessing the effectiveness of achieving program goals (summative assessment). Using a convergent parallel mixed method design, qualitative and quantitative data were collected to develop a full assessment of the first year of the program. Evaluation findings have resulted in several positive changes to the program. For example, EMPOWER students perceive themselves to have high technical skills, but the data show that the students do not believe that they have a strong professional network. Based on those findings, EMPOWER offered several professional development events focused on building one's professional network. Preliminary findings have enabled the EMPOWER leadership team to make informed decisions about the ways the program elements can be redesigned to better meet student needs, about how to the make the program more effective, and determine the program elements that may be sustained beyond the funding period. Evaluation of programs like EMPOWER provide essential information to support continual improvement of STEM graduate programs.

Management/Technical Interaction in Integrated Information System Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bagley, Clarence H.; Gardner, Don E.

The integrated information system element of the management information system concept has practical applications for management in the areas of both information analysis and decision-model building. Four basic options for achieving integration in operational data systems are: a default option, the coordinated file option, the distributed…