Evaluation of the uncertainty in an EBT3 film dosimetry system utilizing net optical density

PubMed Central

Marroquin, Elsa Y. León; Herrera González, José A.; Camacho López, Miguel A.; Barajas, José E. Villarreal

2016-01-01

Radiochromic film has become an important tool to verify dose distributions for intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and quality assurance (QA) procedures. A new radiochromic film model, EBT3, has recently become available, whose composition and thickness of the sensitive layer are the same as those of previous EBT2 films. However, a matte polyester layer was added to EBT3 to prevent the formation of Newton's rings. Furthermore, the symmetrical design of EBT3 allows the user to eliminate side‐orientation dependence. This film and the flatbed scanner, Epson Perfection V750, form a dosimetry system whose intrinsic characteristics were studied in this work. In addition, uncertainties associated with these intrinsic characteristics and the total uncertainty of the dosimetry system were determined. The analysis of the response of the radiochromic film (net optical density) and the fitting of the experimental data to a potential function yielded an uncertainty of 2.6%, 4.3%, and 4.1% for the red, green, and blue channels, respectively. In this work, the dosimetry system presents an uncertainty in resolving the dose of 1.8% for doses greater than 0.8 Gy and less than 6 Gy for red channel. The films irradiated between 0 and 120 Gy show differences in the response when scanned in portrait or landscape mode; less uncertainty was found when using the portrait mode. The response of the film depended on the position on the bed of the scanner, contributing an uncertainty of 2% for the red, 3% for the green, and 4.5% for the blue when placing the film around the center of the bed of scanner. Furthermore, the uniformity and reproducibility radiochromic film and reproducibility of the response of the scanner contribute less than 1% to the overall uncertainty in dose. Finally, the total dose uncertainty was 3.2%, 4.9%, and 5.2% for red, green, and blue channels, respectively. The above uncertainty values were obtained by minimizing the contribution to the total dose uncertainty of the film orientation and film homogeneity. PACS number(s): 87.53.Bn PMID:27685125

Space Launch System Booster Separation Aerodynamic Database Development and Uncertainty Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, David T.; Pinier, Jeremy T.; Wilcox, Floyd J., Jr.; Dalle, Derek J.; Rogers, Stuart E.; Gomez, Reynaldo J.

2016-01-01

The development of the aerodynamic database for the Space Launch System (SLS) booster separation environment has presented many challenges because of the complex physics of the ow around three independent bodies due to proximity e ects and jet inter- actions from the booster separation motors and the core stage engines. This aerodynamic environment is dicult to simulate in a wind tunnel experiment and also dicult to simu- late with computational uid dynamics. The database is further complicated by the high dimensionality of the independent variable space, which includes the orientation of the core stage, the relative positions and orientations of the solid rocket boosters, and the thrust lev- els of the various engines. Moreover, the clearance between the core stage and the boosters during the separation event is sensitive to the aerodynamic uncertainties of the database. This paper will present the development process for Version 3 of the SLS booster separa- tion aerodynamic database and the statistics-based uncertainty quanti cation process for the database.

Service Providers’ Experiences and Perspectives on Recovery-Oriented Mental Health System Reform

PubMed Central

Piat, Myra; Lal, Shalini

2016-01-01

Objective With the use of a qualitative approach, this study focuses on service providers’ experiences and perspectives on recovery-oriented reform. Methods Nine focus groups were conducted with a sample of 68 service providers recruited from three Canadian sites. Results Three major themes were identified: 1) positive attitudes towards recovery-oriented reform; 2) skepticism towards recovery-oriented reform; and 3) challenges associated with implementing recovery-oriented practice. These challenges pertained to conceptual uncertainty and consistency around the meanings of recovery; application of recovery-oriented practice with certain populations and in certain contexts; bureaucratization of recovery-oriented tools; limited leadership support; and, societal stigma and social exclusion of persons with mental illnesses. Conclusions and Implications for Practice The findings point towards challenges that might arise as system planners move ahead in their efforts toward implementing recovery within the mental health system. In this regard, we offer several recommendations for the planning of organizational and educational practices that support the implementation of recovery-oriented practice. PMID:22491368

Adaptive tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot via an uncalibrated camera system.

PubMed

Dixon, W E; Dawson, D M; Zergeroglu, E; Behal, A

2001-01-01

This paper considers the problem of position/orientation tracking control of wheeled mobile robots via visual servoing in the presence of parametric uncertainty associated with the mechanical dynamics and the camera system. Specifically, we design an adaptive controller that compensates for uncertain camera and mechanical parameters and ensures global asymptotic position/orientation tracking. Simulation and experimental results are included to illustrate the performance of the control law.

Uncertainty analysis and robust trajectory linearization control of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Zhiqiang; Tan, Xiangmin; Fan, Guoliang; Yi, Jianqiang

2014-08-01

Flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicles feature significant uncertainties which pose huge challenges to robust controller designs. In this paper, four major categories of uncertainties are analyzed, that is, uncertainties associated with flexible effects, aerodynamic parameter variations, external environmental disturbances, and control-oriented modeling errors. A uniform nonlinear uncertainty model is explored for the first three uncertainties which lumps all uncertainties together and consequently is beneficial for controller synthesis. The fourth uncertainty is additionally considered in stability analysis. Based on these analyses, the starting point of the control design is to decompose the vehicle dynamics into five functional subsystems. Then a robust trajectory linearization control (TLC) scheme consisting of five robust subsystem controllers is proposed. In each subsystem controller, TLC is combined with the extended state observer (ESO) technique for uncertainty compensation. The stability of the overall closed-loop system with the four aforementioned uncertainties and additional singular perturbations is analyzed. Particularly, the stability of nonlinear ESO is also discussed from a Liénard system perspective. At last, simulations demonstrate the great control performance and the uncertainty rejection ability of the robust scheme.

On the feasibility of MRI-guided navigation to demarcate breast cancer for breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Alderliesten, Tanja; Loo, Claudette; Paape, Anita; Muller, Sara; Rutgers, Emiel; Peeters, Marie-Jeanne Vrancken; Gilhuijs, Kenneth

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of image-guided navigation approaches to demarcate breast cancer on the basis of preacquired magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in supine patient orientation. Strategies were examined to minimize the uncertainty in the instrument-tip position, based on the hypothesis that the release of instrument pressure returns the breast tissue to its predeformed state. For this purpose, four sources of uncertainty were taken into account: (1) U(ligaments): Uncertainty in the reproducibility of the internal mammary gland geometry during repeat patient setup in supine orientation; (2) U(r_breathing): Residual uncertainty in registration of the breast after compensation for breathing motion using an external marker; (3) U(reconstruction): Uncertainty in the reconstructed location of the tip of the needle using an optical image-navigation system (phantom experiments, n = 50); and (4) U(deformation): Uncertainty in displacement of breast tumors due to needle-induced tissue deformations (patients, n = 21). A Monte Carlo study was performed to establish the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the combined uncertainties. This region of uncertainty was subsequently visualized around the reconstructed needle tip as an additional navigational aid in the preacquired MR images. Validation of the system was performed in five healthy volunteers (localization of skin markers only) and in two patients. In the patients, the navigation system was used to monitor ultrasound-guided radioactive seed localization of breast cancer. Nearest distances between the needle tip and the tumor boundary in the ultrasound images were compared to those in the concurrently reconstructed MR images. Both U(reconstruction) and U(deformation) were normally distributed with 0.1 +/- 1.2 mm (mean +/- 1 SD) and 0.1 +/- 0.8 mm, respectively. Taking prior estimates for U(ligaments) (0.0 +/- 1.5 mm) and U(r_breathing) (-0.1 +/- 0.6 mm) into account, the combined impact resulted in 3.9 mm uncertainty in the position of the needle tip (95% CI) after release of pressure. The volunteer study showed a targeting accuracy comparable to that in the phantom experiments: 2.9 +/- 1.3 versus 2.7 +/- 1.1 mm, respectively. In the patient feasibility study, the deviations were within the 3.9 mm CI. Image-guided navigation to demarcate breast cancer on the basis of preacquired MR images in supine orientation appears feasible if patient breathing is tracked during the navigation procedure, positional uncertainty is visualized and pressure on the localization instrument is released prior to verification of its position.

Orbital Debris Shape and Orientation Effects on Ballistic Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Steven W.; Williamsen, Joel E.

2005-01-01

The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to evaluate the effects of orbital debris particle shape and orientation on penetration of a typical spacecraft dual-wall shield. Impacts were simulated at near-normal obliquity at 12 km/sec. Debris cloud characteristics and damage potential are compared with those from impacts by spherical projectiles. Results of these simulations indicate the uncertainties in the predicted ballistic limits due to modeling uncertainty and to uncertainty in the impactor orientation.

The Impact of National Cultural Differences on Nurses' Acceptance of Hospital Information Systems.

PubMed

Lin, Hsien-Cheng

2015-06-01

This study aims to explore the influence of national cultural differences on nurses' perceptions of their acceptance of hospital information systems. This study uses the perspective of Technology Acceptance Model; national cultural differences in terms of masculinity/femininity, individualism/collectivism, power distance, and uncertainty avoidance are incorporated into the Technology Acceptance Model as moderators, whereas time orientation is a control variable on hospital information system acceptance. A quantitative research design was used in this study; 261 participants, US and Taiwan RNs, all had hospital information system experience. Data were collected from November 2013 to February 2014 and analyzed using a t test to compare the coefficients for each moderator. The results show that individualism/collectivism, power distance, and uncertainty avoidance all exhibit significant difference on hospital information system acceptance; however, both masculinity/femininity and time orientation factors did not show significance. This study verifies that national cultural differences have significant influence on nurses' behavioral intention to use hospital information systems. Therefore, hospital information system providers should emphasize the way in which to integrate different technological functions to meet the needs of nurses from various cultural backgrounds.

Assessing the Performance of Sensor Fusion Methods: Application to Magnetic-Inertial-Based Human Body Tracking

PubMed Central

Ligorio, Gabriele; Bergamini, Elena; Pasciuto, Ilaria; Vannozzi, Giuseppe; Cappozzo, Aurelio; Sabatini, Angelo Maria

2016-01-01

Information from complementary and redundant sensors are often combined within sensor fusion algorithms to obtain a single accurate observation of the system at hand. However, measurements from each sensor are characterized by uncertainties. When multiple data are fused, it is often unclear how all these uncertainties interact and influence the overall performance of the sensor fusion algorithm. To address this issue, a benchmarking procedure is presented, where simulated and real data are combined in different scenarios in order to quantify how each sensor’s uncertainties influence the accuracy of the final result. The proposed procedure was applied to the estimation of the pelvis orientation using a waist-worn magnetic-inertial measurement unit. Ground-truth data were obtained from a stereophotogrammetric system and used to obtain simulated data. Two Kalman-based sensor fusion algorithms were submitted to the proposed benchmarking procedure. For the considered application, gyroscope uncertainties proved to be the main error source in orientation estimation accuracy for both tested algorithms. Moreover, although different performances were obtained using simulated data, these differences became negligible when real data were considered. The outcome of this evaluation may be useful both to improve the design of new sensor fusion methods and to drive the algorithm tuning process. PMID:26821027

Assessing the Performance of Sensor Fusion Methods: Application to Magnetic-Inertial-Based Human Body Tracking.

PubMed

Ligorio, Gabriele; Bergamini, Elena; Pasciuto, Ilaria; Vannozzi, Giuseppe; Cappozzo, Aurelio; Sabatini, Angelo Maria

2016-01-26

Information from complementary and redundant sensors are often combined within sensor fusion algorithms to obtain a single accurate observation of the system at hand. However, measurements from each sensor are characterized by uncertainties. When multiple data are fused, it is often unclear how all these uncertainties interact and influence the overall performance of the sensor fusion algorithm. To address this issue, a benchmarking procedure is presented, where simulated and real data are combined in different scenarios in order to quantify how each sensor's uncertainties influence the accuracy of the final result. The proposed procedure was applied to the estimation of the pelvis orientation using a waist-worn magnetic-inertial measurement unit. Ground-truth data were obtained from a stereophotogrammetric system and used to obtain simulated data. Two Kalman-based sensor fusion algorithms were submitted to the proposed benchmarking procedure. For the considered application, gyroscope uncertainties proved to be the main error source in orientation estimation accuracy for both tested algorithms. Moreover, although different performances were obtained using simulated data, these differences became negligible when real data were considered. The outcome of this evaluation may be useful both to improve the design of new sensor fusion methods and to drive the algorithm tuning process.

Improved representation of situational awareness within a dismounted small combat unit constructive simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. David; Colony, Mike

2011-06-01

Modeling and simulation has been established as a cost-effective means of supporting the development of requirements, exploring doctrinal alternatives, assessing system performance, and performing design trade-off analysis. The Army's constructive simulation for the evaluation of equipment effectiveness in small combat unit operations is currently limited to representation of situation awareness without inclusion of the many uncertainties associated with real world combat environments. The goal of this research is to provide an ability to model situation awareness and decision process uncertainties in order to improve evaluation of the impact of battlefield equipment on ground soldier and small combat unit decision processes. Our Army Probabilistic Inference and Decision Engine (Army-PRIDE) system provides this required uncertainty modeling through the application of two critical techniques that allow Bayesian network technology to be applied to real-time applications. (Object-Oriented Bayesian Network methodology and Object-Oriented Inference technique). In this research, we implement decision process and situation awareness models for a reference scenario using Army-PRIDE and demonstrate its ability to model a variety of uncertainty elements, including: confidence of source, information completeness, and information loss. We also demonstrate that Army-PRIDE improves the realism of the current constructive simulation's decision processes through Monte Carlo simulation.

Essentialist beliefs, sexual identity uncertainty, internalized homonegativity and psychological wellbeing in gay men.

PubMed

Morandini, James S; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Ross, Michael W; Costa, Daniel S J; Dar-Nimrod, Ilan

2015-07-01

The present study examined essentialist beliefs about sexual orientation and their implications for sexual identity uncertainty, internalized homonegativity and psychological wellbeing in a sample of gay men. A combination of targeted sampling and snowball strategies were used to recruit 639 gay identifying men for a cross-sectional online survey. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing sexual orientation beliefs, sexual identity uncertainty, internalized homonegativity, and psychological wellbeing outcomes. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether essentialist beliefs were associated with psychological wellbeing indirectly via their effect on sexual identity uncertainty and internalized homonegativity. A unique pattern of direct and indirect effects was observed in which facets of essentialism predicted sexual identity uncertainty, internalized homonegativity and psychological wellbeing. Of note, viewing sexual orientation as immutable/biologically based and as existing in discrete categories, were associated with less sexual identity uncertainty. On the other hand, these beliefs had divergent relationships with internalized homonegativity, with immutability/biological beliefs associated with lower, and discreteness beliefs associated with greater internalized homonegativity. Of interest, although sexual identity uncertainty was associated with poorer psychological wellbeing via its contribution to internalized homophobia, there was no direct relationship between identity uncertainty and psychological wellbeing. Findings indicate that essentializing sexual orientation has mixed implications for sexual identity uncertainty and internalized homonegativity and wellbeing in gay men. Those undertaking educational and clinical interventions with gay men should be aware of the benefits and of caveats of essentialist theories of homosexuality for this population. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Visualizing Java uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Claire; Munro, Malcolm

2001-07-01

Distributed component based systems seem to be the immediate future for software development. The use of such techniques, object oriented languages, and the combination with ever more powerful higher-level frameworks has led to the rapid creation and deployment of such systems to cater for the demand of internet and service driven business systems. This diversity of solution through both components utilised and the physical/virtual locations of those components can provide powerful resolutions to the new demand. The problem lies in the comprehension and maintenance of such systems because they then have inherent uncertainty. The components combined at any given time for a solution may differ, the messages generated, sent, and/or received may differ, and the physical/virtual locations cannot be guaranteed. Trying to account for this uncertainty and to build in into analysis and comprehension tools is important for both development and maintenance activities.

Applications of artificial intelligence to digital photogrammetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kretsch, J.L.

1988-01-01

The aim of this research was to explore the application of expert systems to digital photogrammetry, specifically to photogrammetric triangulation, feature extraction, and photogrammetric problem solving. In 1987, prototype expert systems were developed for doing system startup, interior orientation, and relative orientation in the mensuration stage. The system explored means of performing diagnostics during the process. In the area of feature extraction, the relationship of metric uncertainty to symbolic uncertainty was the topic of research. Error propagation through the Dempster-Shafer formalism for representing evidence was performed in order to find the variance in the calculated belief values due to errorsmore » in measurements made together the initial evidence needed to being labeling of observed image features with features in an object model. In photogrammetric problem solving, an expert system is under continuous development which seeks to solve photogrammetric problems using mathematical reasoning. The key to the approach used is the representation of knowledge directly in the form of equations, rather than in the form of if-then rules. Then each variable in the equations is treated as a goal to be solved.« less

Uncertainty Modeling and Evaluation of CMM Task Oriented Measurement Based on SVCMM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongli; Chen, Xiaohuai; Cheng, Yinbao; Liu, Houde; Wang, Hanbin; Cheng, Zhenying; Wang, Hongtao

2017-10-01

Due to the variety of measurement tasks and the complexity of the errors of coordinate measuring machine (CMM), it is very difficult to reasonably evaluate the uncertainty of the measurement results of CMM. It has limited the application of CMM. Task oriented uncertainty evaluation has become a difficult problem to be solved. Taking dimension measurement as an example, this paper puts forward a practical method of uncertainty modeling and evaluation of CMM task oriented measurement (called SVCMM method). This method makes full use of the CMM acceptance or reinspection report and the Monte Carlo computer simulation method (MCM). The evaluation example is presented, and the results are evaluated by the traditional method given in GUM and the proposed method, respectively. The SVCMM method is verified to be feasible and practical. It can help CMM users to conveniently complete the measurement uncertainty evaluation through a single measurement cycle.

Monkeys and humans take local uncertainty into account when localizing a change.

PubMed

Devkar, Deepna; Wright, Anthony A; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-09-01

Since sensory measurements are noisy, an observer is rarely certain about the identity of a stimulus. In visual perception tasks, observers generally take their uncertainty about a stimulus into account when doing so helps task performance. Whether the same holds in visual working memory tasks is largely unknown. Ten human and two monkey subjects localized a single change in orientation between a sample display containing three ellipses and a test display containing two ellipses. To manipulate uncertainty, we varied the reliability of orientation information by making each ellipse more or less elongated (two levels); reliability was independent across the stimuli. In both species, a variable-precision encoding model equipped with an "uncertainty-indifferent" decision rule, which uses only the noisy memories, fitted the data poorly. In both species, a much better fit was provided by a model in which the observer also takes the levels of reliability-driven uncertainty associated with the memories into account. In particular, a measured change in a low-reliability stimulus was given lower weight than the same change in a high-reliability stimulus. We did not find strong evidence that observers took reliability-independent variations in uncertainty into account. Our results illustrate the importance of studying the decision stage in comparison tasks and provide further evidence for evolutionary continuity of working memory systems between monkeys and humans.

a Three-Dimensional Simulation and Visualization System for Uav Photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Y.; Qu, Y.; Cui, T.

2017-08-01

Nowadays UAVs has been widely used for large-scale surveying and mapping. Compared with manned aircraft, UAVs are more cost-effective and responsive. However, UAVs are usually more sensitive to wind condition, which greatly influences their positions and orientations. The flight height of a UAV is relative low, and the relief of the terrain may result in serious occlusions. Moreover, the observations acquired by the Position and Orientation System (POS) are usually less accurate than those acquired in manned aerial photogrammetry. All of these factors bring in uncertainties to UAV photogrammetry. To investigate these uncertainties, a three-dimensional simulation and visualization system has been developed. The system is demonstrated with flight plan evaluation, image matching, POS-supported direct georeferencing, and ortho-mosaicing. Experimental results show that the presented system is effective for flight plan evaluation. The generated image pairs are accurate and false matches can be effectively filtered. The presented system dynamically visualizes the results of direct georeferencing in three-dimensions, which is informative and effective for real-time target tracking and positioning. The dynamically generated orthomosaic can be used in emergency applications. The presented system has also been used for teaching theories and applications of UAV photogrammetry.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.« less

Reusable Launch Vehicle Control in Multiple Time Scale Sliding Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shtessel, Yuri

1999-01-01

A reusable launch vehicle control problem during ascent is addressed via multiple-time scaled continuous sliding mode control. The proposed sliding mode controller utilizes a two-loop structure and provides robust, de-coupled tracking of both orientation angle command profiles and angular rate command profiles in the presence of bounded external disturbances and plant uncertainties. Sliding mode control causes the angular rate and orientation angle tracking error dynamics to be constrained to linear, de-coupled, homogeneous, and vector valued differential equations with desired eigenvalues placement. The dual-time scale sliding mode controller was designed for the X-33 technology demonstration sub-orbital launch vehicle in the launch mode. 6DOF simulation results show that the designed controller provides robust, accurate, de-coupled tracking of the orientation angle command profiles in presence of external disturbances and vehicle inertia uncertainties. It creates possibility to operate the X-33 vehicle in an aircraft-like mode with reduced pre-launch adjustment of the control system.

Reusable Launch Vehicle Control In Multiple Time Scale Sliding Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shtessel, Yuri; Hall, Charles; Jackson, Mark

2000-01-01

A reusable launch vehicle control problem during ascent is addressed via multiple-time scaled continuous sliding mode control. The proposed sliding mode controller utilizes a two-loop structure and provides robust, de-coupled tracking of both orientation angle command profiles and angular rate command profiles in the presence of bounded external disturbances and plant uncertainties. Sliding mode control causes the angular rate and orientation angle tracking error dynamics to be constrained to linear, de-coupled, homogeneous, and vector valued differential equations with desired eigenvalues placement. Overall stability of a two-loop control system is addressed. An optimal control allocation algorithm is designed that allocates torque commands into end-effector deflection commands, which are executed by the actuators. The dual-time scale sliding mode controller was designed for the X-33 technology demonstration sub-orbital launch vehicle in the launch mode. Simulation results show that the designed controller provides robust, accurate, de-coupled tracking of the orientation angle command profiles in presence of external disturbances and vehicle inertia uncertainties. This is a significant advancement in performance over that achieved with linear, gain scheduled control systems currently being used for launch vehicles.

Approach to determine measurement uncertainty in complex nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hampel, B.; Liu, B.; Nording, F.; Ostermann, J.; Struszewski, P.; Langfahl-Klabes, J.; Bieler, M.; Bosse, H.; Güttler, B.; Lemmens, P.; Schilling, M.; Tutsch, R.

2018-03-01

In many cases, the determination of the measurement uncertainty of complex nanosystems provides unexpected challenges. This is in particular true for complex systems with many degrees of freedom, i.e. nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities. The aim of this paper is to address specific questions arising during the uncertainty calculation of such systems. This includes the division of the measurement system into subsystems and the distinction between systematic and statistical influences. We demonstrate that, even if the physical systems under investigation are very different, the corresponding uncertainty calculation can always be realized in a similar manner. This is exemplarily shown in detail for two experiments, namely magnetic nanosensors and ultrafast electro-optical sampling of complex time-domain signals. For these examples the approach for uncertainty calculation following the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) is explained, in which correlations between multivariate output quantities are captured. To illustate the versatility of the proposed approach, its application to other experiments, namely nanometrological instruments for terahertz microscopy, dimensional scanning probe microscopy, and measurement of concentration of molecules using surface enhanced Raman scattering, is shortly discussed in the appendix. We believe that the proposed approach provides a simple but comprehensive orientation for uncertainty calculation in the discussed measurement scenarios and can also be applied to similar or related situations.

Model-based adaptive sliding mode control of the subcritical boiler-turbine system with uncertainties.

PubMed

Tian, Zhen; Yuan, Jingqi; Xu, Liang; Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Jingcheng

2018-05-25

As higher requirements are proposed for the load regulation and efficiency enhancement, the control performance of boiler-turbine systems has become much more important. In this paper, a novel robust control approach is proposed to improve the coordinated control performance for subcritical boiler-turbine units. To capture the key features of the boiler-turbine system, a nonlinear control-oriented model is established and validated with the history operation data of a 300 MW unit. To achieve system linearization and decoupling, an adaptive feedback linearization strategy is proposed, which could asymptotically eliminate the linearization error caused by the model uncertainties. Based on the linearized boiler-turbine system, a second-order sliding mode controller is designed with the super-twisting algorithm. Moreover, the closed-loop system is proved robustly stable with respect to uncertainties and disturbances. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme, which achieves excellent tracking performance, strong robustness and chattering reduction. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian integration of position and orientation cues in perception of biological and non-biological forms.

PubMed

Thurman, Steven M; Lu, Hongjing

2014-01-01

Visual form analysis is fundamental to shape perception and likely plays a central role in perception of more complex dynamic shapes, such as moving objects or biological motion. Two primary form-based cues serve to represent the overall shape of an object: the spatial position and the orientation of locations along the boundary of the object. However, it is unclear how the visual system integrates these two sources of information in dynamic form analysis, and in particular how the brain resolves ambiguities due to sensory uncertainty and/or cue conflict. In the current study, we created animations of sparsely-sampled dynamic objects (human walkers or rotating squares) comprised of oriented Gabor patches in which orientation could either coincide or conflict with information provided by position cues. When the cues were incongruent, we found a characteristic trade-off between position and orientation information whereby position cues increasingly dominated perception as the relative uncertainty of orientation increased and vice versa. Furthermore, we found no evidence for differences in the visual processing of biological and non-biological objects, casting doubt on the claim that biological motion may be specialized in the human brain, at least in specific terms of form analysis. To explain these behavioral results quantitatively, we adopt a probabilistic template-matching model that uses Bayesian inference within local modules to estimate object shape separately from either spatial position or orientation signals. The outputs of the two modules are integrated with weights that reflect individual estimates of subjective cue reliability, and integrated over time to produce a decision about the perceived dynamics of the input data. Results of this model provided a close fit to the behavioral data, suggesting a mechanism in the human visual system that approximates rational Bayesian inference to integrate position and orientation signals in dynamic form analysis.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis version 6.0 theory manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.« less

Monkeys and humans take local uncertainty into account when localizing a change

PubMed Central

Devkar, Deepna; Wright, Anthony A.; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-01-01

Since sensory measurements are noisy, an observer is rarely certain about the identity of a stimulus. In visual perception tasks, observers generally take their uncertainty about a stimulus into account when doing so helps task performance. Whether the same holds in visual working memory tasks is largely unknown. Ten human and two monkey subjects localized a single change in orientation between a sample display containing three ellipses and a test display containing two ellipses. To manipulate uncertainty, we varied the reliability of orientation information by making each ellipse more or less elongated (two levels); reliability was independent across the stimuli. In both species, a variable-precision encoding model equipped with an “uncertainty–indifferent” decision rule, which uses only the noisy memories, fitted the data poorly. In both species, a much better fit was provided by a model in which the observer also takes the levels of reliability-driven uncertainty associated with the memories into account. In particular, a measured change in a low-reliability stimulus was given lower weight than the same change in a high-reliability stimulus. We did not find strong evidence that observers took reliability-independent variations in uncertainty into account. Our results illustrate the importance of studying the decision stage in comparison tasks and provide further evidence for evolutionary continuity of working memory systems between monkeys and humans. PMID:28877535

Film dosimetry using a smart device camera: a feasibility study for point dose measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aland, Trent; Jhala, Ekta; Kairn, Tanya; Trapp, Jamie

2017-10-01

In this work, a methodology for using a smartphone camera, in conjunction with a light-tight box operating in reflective transmission mode, is investigated as a proof of concept for use as a film dosimetry system. An imaging system was designed to allow the camera of a smartphone to be used as a pseudo densitometer. Ten pieces of Gafchromic EBT3 film were irradiated to doses up to 16.89 Gy and used to evaluate the effects of reproducibility and orientation, as well as the ability to create an accurate dose response curve for the smartphone based dosimetry system, using all three colour channels. Results were compared to a flatbed scanner system. Overall uncertainty was found to be best for the red channel with an uncertainty of 2.4% identified for film irradiated to 2.5 Gy and digitised using the smartphone system. This proof of concept exercise showed that although uncertainties still exceed a flatbed scanner system, the smartphone system may be useful for providing point dose measurements in situations where conventional flatbed scanners (or other dosimetry systems) are unavailable or unaffordable.

Film dosimetry using a smart device camera: a feasibility study for point dose measurements.

PubMed

Aland, Trent; Jhala, Ekta; Kairn, Tanya; Trapp, Jamie

2017-10-03

In this work, a methodology for using a smartphone camera, in conjunction with a light-tight box operating in reflective transmission mode, is investigated as a proof of concept for use as a film dosimetry system. An imaging system was designed to allow the camera of a smartphone to be used as a pseudo densitometer. Ten pieces of Gafchromic EBT3 film were irradiated to doses up to 16.89 Gy and used to evaluate the effects of reproducibility and orientation, as well as the ability to create an accurate dose response curve for the smartphone based dosimetry system, using all three colour channels. Results were compared to a flatbed scanner system. Overall uncertainty was found to be best for the red channel with an uncertainty of 2.4% identified for film irradiated to 2.5 Gy and digitised using the smartphone system. This proof of concept exercise showed that although uncertainties still exceed a flatbed scanner system, the smartphone system may be useful for providing point dose measurements in situations where conventional flatbed scanners (or other dosimetry systems) are unavailable or unaffordable.

Markov Task Network: A Framework for Service Composition under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical Systems.

PubMed

Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Agyemang, Brighter

2016-09-21

In novel collaborative systems, cooperative entities collaborate services to achieve local and global objectives. With the growing pervasiveness of cyber-physical systems, however, such collaboration is hampered by differences in the operations of the cyber and physical objects, and the need for the dynamic formation of collaborative functionality given high-level system goals has become practical. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer automation and management model for cyber-physical systems. This models the dynamic formation of collaborative services pursuing laid-down system goals as an ontology-oriented hierarchical task network. Ontological intelligence provides the semantic technology of this model, and through semantic reasoning, primitive tasks can be dynamically composed from high-level system goals. In dealing with uncertainty, we further propose a novel bridge between hierarchical task networks and Markov logic networks, called the Markov task network. This leverages the efficient inference algorithms of Markov logic networks to reduce both computational and inferential loads in task decomposition. From the results of our experiments, high-precision service composition under uncertainty can be achieved using this approach.

Combinations of Earth Orientation Observations: SPACE94, COMB94, and POLE94

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, R. S.

1995-01-01

A Kalman filter has been used to combine all publicly available, independently determined measurements of the Earth's orientation taken by the modern, space-geodetic techniques of very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, lunar laser ranging, and the global positioning system. Prior to combining the data, tidal terms were removed from the UT1 measurements, outlying data points were deleted, series-specific corrections were applied for bias and rate, and the stated uncertainties of the measurements were adjusted by multiplying them by series-specific scale factors. Values for these bias- rate corrections and uncertainty scale factors were determined by an iterative, round-robin procedure wherein each data set is compared, in turn, to a combination of all other data sets. When applied to the measurements, the bias-rate corrections thus determined make the data sets agree with each other in bias and rate, and the uncertainty scale factors thus determined make the residual of each series (when differenced with a combination of all others) have a reduced chi-square of one. The corrected and adjusted series are then placed within an IERS reference frame by aligning them with the IERS Earth orientation series EOP (IERS)90C04. The result of combining these corrected, adjusted and aligned series is designated SPCE94 and spans October 6.0, 1976 to January 27.0, 1995 at daily intervals.

A Kalman-Filter-Based Approach to Combining Independent Earth-Orientation Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Richard S.; Eubanks, T. M.; Steppe, J. A.; Freedman, A. P.; Dickey, J. O.; Runge, T. F.

1998-01-01

An approach. based upon the use of a Kalman filter. that is currently employed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for combining independent measurements of the Earth's orientation, is presented. Since changes in the Earth's orientation can be described is a randomly excited stochastic process, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's orientation grows rapidly in the absence of measurements. The Kalman-filter methodology allows for an objective accounting of this uncertainty growth, thereby facilitating the intercomparison of measurements taken at different epochs (not necessarily uniformly spaced in time) and with different precision. As an example of this approach to combining Earth-orientation series, a description is given of a combination, SPACE95, that has been generated recently at JPL.

Quantum back-action-evading measurement of motion in a negative mass reference frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Møller, Christoffer B.; Thomas, Rodrigo A.; Vasilakis, Georgios; Zeuthen, Emil; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Balabas, Mikhail; Jensen, Kasper; Schliesser, Albert; Hammerer, Klemens; Polzik, Eugene S.

2017-07-01

Quantum mechanics dictates that a continuous measurement of the position of an object imposes a random quantum back-action (QBA) perturbation on its momentum. This randomness translates with time into position uncertainty, thus leading to the well known uncertainty on the measurement of motion. As a consequence of this randomness, and in accordance with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the QBA puts a limitation—the so-called standard quantum limit—on the precision of sensing of position, velocity and acceleration. Here we show that QBA on a macroscopic mechanical oscillator can be evaded if the measurement of motion is conducted in the reference frame of an atomic spin oscillator. The collective quantum measurement on this hybrid system of two distant and disparate oscillators is performed with light. The mechanical oscillator is a vibrational ‘drum’ mode of a millimetre-sized dielectric membrane, and the spin oscillator is an atomic ensemble in a magnetic field. The spin oriented along the field corresponds to an energetically inverted spin population and realizes a negative-effective-mass oscillator, while the opposite orientation corresponds to an oscillator with positive effective mass. The QBA is suppressed by -1.8 decibels in the negative-mass setting and enhanced by 2.4 decibels in the positive-mass case. This hybrid quantum system paves the way to entanglement generation and distant quantum communication between mechanical and spin systems and to sensing of force, motion and gravity beyond the standard quantum limit.

Quantum back-action-evading measurement of motion in a negative mass reference frame.

PubMed

Møller, Christoffer B; Thomas, Rodrigo A; Vasilakis, Georgios; Zeuthen, Emil; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Balabas, Mikhail; Jensen, Kasper; Schliesser, Albert; Hammerer, Klemens; Polzik, Eugene S

2017-07-12

Quantum mechanics dictates that a continuous measurement of the position of an object imposes a random quantum back-action (QBA) perturbation on its momentum. This randomness translates with time into position uncertainty, thus leading to the well known uncertainty on the measurement of motion. As a consequence of this randomness, and in accordance with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the QBA puts a limitation-the so-called standard quantum limit-on the precision of sensing of position, velocity and acceleration. Here we show that QBA on a macroscopic mechanical oscillator can be evaded if the measurement of motion is conducted in the reference frame of an atomic spin oscillator. The collective quantum measurement on this hybrid system of two distant and disparate oscillators is performed with light. The mechanical oscillator is a vibrational 'drum' mode of a millimetre-sized dielectric membrane, and the spin oscillator is an atomic ensemble in a magnetic field. The spin oriented along the field corresponds to an energetically inverted spin population and realizes a negative-effective-mass oscillator, while the opposite orientation corresponds to an oscillator with positive effective mass. The QBA is suppressed by -1.8 decibels in the negative-mass setting and enhanced by 2.4 decibels in the positive-mass case. This hybrid quantum system paves the way to entanglement generation and distant quantum communication between mechanical and spin systems and to sensing of force, motion and gravity beyond the standard quantum limit.

Stereo Photogrammetry Measurements of the Position and Attitude of a Nozzle-Plume/Shock-Wave Interaction Model in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura K.; Drain, Bethany A.; Heineck, James T.; Durston, Donald A.

2017-01-01

Stereo photogrammetry was used to measure the position and attitude of a slender body of revolution during nozzle-plume/shock-wave interaction tests in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The model support system was designed to allow the model to be placed at many locations in the test section relative to a pressure rail on one sidewall. It included a streamwise traverse as well as a thin blade that offset the model axis from the sting axis. With these features the support system was more flexible than usual resulting in higher-than-usual uncertainty in the position and attitude of the model. Also contributing to this uncertainty were the absence of a balance, so corrections for sting deflections could not be applied, and the wings-vertical orientation of the model, which precluded using a gravity-based accelerometer to measure pitch angle. Therefore, stereo photogrammetry was chosen to provide independent measures of the model position and orientation. This paper describes the photogrammetry system and presents selected results from the test.

A Symbiotic Relationship: The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop, Intuition, and Strategic Thought

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Incompleteness Theorem (used in mathematics), and Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle as it pertains to the mathematical foundations of quantum ...subtlety which normal consciousness cannot even see…”46 It is in our PME system where we can create the time to develop the unconscious realms of the

Sensored Field Oriented Control of a Robust Induction Motor Drive Using a Novel Boundary Layer Fuzzy Controller

PubMed Central

Saghafinia, Ali; Ping, Hew Wooi; Uddin, Mohammad Nasir

2013-01-01

Physical sensors have a key role in implementation of real-time vector control for an induction motor (IM) drive. This paper presents a novel boundary layer fuzzy controller (NBLFC) based on the boundary layer approach for speed control of an indirect field-oriented control (IFOC) of an induction motor (IM) drive using physical sensors. The boundary layer approach leads to a trade-off between control performances and chattering elimination. For the NBLFC, a fuzzy system is used to adjust the boundary layer thickness to improve the tracking performance and eliminate the chattering problem under small uncertainties. Also, to eliminate the chattering under the possibility of large uncertainties, the integral filter is proposed inside the variable boundary layer. In addition, the stability of the system is analyzed through the Lyapunov stability theorem. The proposed NBLFC based IM drive is implemented in real-time using digital signal processor (DSP) board TI TMS320F28335. The experimental and simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed NBLFC based IM drive at different operating conditions.

Direction-sensitive smart monitoring of structures using heterogeneous smartphone sensor data and coordinate system transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozer, Ekin; Feng, Maria Q.

2017-04-01

Mobile, heterogeneous, and smart sensor networks produce pervasive structural health monitoring (SHM) information. With various embedded sensors, smartphones have emerged to innovate SHM by empowering citizens to serve as sensors. By default, smartphones meet the fundamental smart sensor criteria, thanks to the built-in processor, memory, wireless communication units and mobile operating system. SHM using smartphones, however, faces technical challenges due to citizen-induced uncertainties, undesired sensor-structure integration, and lack of control over the sensing platform. Previously, the authors presented successful applications of smartphone accelerometers for structural vibration measurement and proposed a monitoring framework under citizen-induced spatiotemporal uncertainties. This study aims at extending the capabilities of smartphone-based SHM with a special focus on the lack of control over the sensor (i.e., the phone) positioning by citizens resulting in unknown sensor orientations. Using smartphone gyroscope, accelerometer, and magnetometer; instantaneous sensor orientation can be obtained with respect to gravitational and magnetic north directions. Using these sensor data, mobile operating system frameworks return processed features such as attitude and heading that can be used to correct misaligned sensor signals. For this purpose, a coordinate transformation procedure is proposed and illustrated on a two-story laboratory structural model and real-scale bridges with various sensor positioning examples. The proposed method corrects the sensor signals by tracking their orientations and improves measurement accuracy. Moreover, knowing structure’s coordinate system a priori, even the data from arbitrarily positioned sensors can automatically be transformed to the structural coordinates. In addition, this paper also touches some secondary mobile and heterogeneous data issues including imperfect sampling and geolocation services. The coordinate system transformation methods proposed in this study can be implemented in other non-smartphone-based SHM systems as long as similar instrumentation is available.

Autonomous navigation accuracy using simulated horizon sensor and sun sensor observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pease, G. E.; Hendrickson, H. T.

1980-01-01

A relatively simple autonomous system which would use horizon crossing indicators, a sun sensor, a quartz oscillator, and a microprogrammed computer is discussed. The sensor combination is required only to effectively measure the angle between the centers of the Earth and the Sun. Simulations for a particular orbit indicate that 2 km r.m.s. orbit determination uncertainties may be expected from a system with 0.06 deg measurement uncertainty. A key finding is that knowledge of the satellite orbit plane orientation can be maintained to this level because of the annual motion of the Sun and the predictable effects of Earth oblateness. The basic system described can be updated periodically by transits of the Moon through the IR horizon crossing indicator fields of view.

How to `Elk-test' biogeochemical models in a data rich world? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Ciais, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Carvalhais, N.; Dalmonech, D.; Jung, M.; Luo, Y.; Mahecha, M. D.; Moffat, A. M.; Tomelleri, E.; Zaehle, S.

2010-12-01

Process-oriented biogeochemical models are a primary tool that has been used to project future states of climate and ecosystems in the earth system in response to anthropogenic and other forcing, and receive tremendous attention also in the context us the planned assessment report AR5 by the IPCC. However, model intercomparison and data-model comparison studies indicate large uncertainties regarding predictions of global interactions between atmosphere and biosphere. Rigorous scientific testing of these models is essential but very challenging, largely because neither it is technically and ethically possible to perform global earth-scale experiments, nor do we have replicate Earths for hypothesis testing. Hence, model evaluations have to rely on monitoring data such as ecological observation networks, global remote sensing or short-term and small-scale experiments. Here, we critically examine strategies of how model evaluations have been performed with a particular emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems. Often weak ‘validations’ are being presented which do not take advantage of all the relevant information in the observed data, but also apparent falsifications are made, that are hampered by a confusion of system processes with system behavior. We propose that a stronger integration of recent advances in pattern-oriented and system-oriented methodologies will lead to more satisfying earth system model evaluation and development, and show a few enlightening examples from terrestrial biogeochemical modeling and other disciplines. Moreover it is crucial to take advantage of the multidimensional nature of arising earth observation data sets which should be matched by models simultaneously, instead of relying on univariate simple comparisons. A new critical model evaluation is needed to improve future IPCC assessments in order to reduce uncertainties by distinguishing plausible simulation trajectories from fairy tales.

Modeling and sliding mode predictive control of the ultra-supercritical boiler-turbine system with uncertainties and input constraints.

PubMed

Tian, Zhen; Yuan, Jingqi; Zhang, Xiang; Kong, Lei; Wang, Jingcheng

2018-05-01

The coordinated control system (CCS) serves as an important role in load regulation, efficiency optimization and pollutant reduction for coal-fired power plants. The CCS faces with tough challenges, such as the wide-range load variation, various uncertainties and constraints. This paper aims to improve the load tacking ability and robustness for boiler-turbine units under wide-range operation. To capture the key dynamics of the ultra-supercritical boiler-turbine system, a nonlinear control-oriented model is developed based on mechanism analysis and model reduction techniques, which is validated with the history operation data of a real 1000 MW unit. To simultaneously address the issues of uncertainties and input constraints, a discrete-time sliding mode predictive controller (SMPC) is designed with the dual-mode control law. Moreover, the input-to-state stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are proved. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme, which achieves good tracking performance, disturbance rejection ability and compatibility to input constraints. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Statistics-Based Material Property Analysis to Support TPS Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Copeland, Sean R.; Cozmuta, Ioana; Alonso, Juan J.

2012-01-01

Accurate characterization of entry capsule heat shield material properties is a critical component in modeling and simulating Thermal Protection System (TPS) response in a prescribed aerothermal environment. The thermal decomposition of the TPS material during the pyrolysis and charring processes is poorly characterized and typically results in large uncertainties in material properties as inputs for ablation models. These material property uncertainties contribute to large design margins on flight systems and cloud re- construction efforts for data collected during flight and ground testing, making revision to existing models for entry systems more challenging. The analysis presented in this work quantifies how material property uncertainties propagate through an ablation model and guides an experimental test regimen aimed at reducing these uncertainties and characterizing the dependencies between properties in the virgin and charred states for a Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) based TPS. A sensitivity analysis identifies how the high-fidelity model behaves in the expected flight environment, while a Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategy is used to quantify the expected spread in the in-depth temperature response of the TPS. An examination of how perturbations to the input probability density functions affect output temperature statistics is accomplished using a Kriging response surface of the high-fidelity model. Simulations are based on capsule configuration and aerothermal environments expected during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry sequence. We identify and rank primary sources of uncertainty from material properties in a flight-relevant environment, show the dependence on spatial orientation and in-depth location on those uncertainty contributors, and quantify how sensitive the expected results are.

Goal-oriented Site Characterization in Hydrogeological Applications: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.

2011-12-01

In this study, we address the importance of goal-oriented site characterization. Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in hydrogeological applications, information needs of modeling, prediction and decision support should be satisfied with efficient and rational field campaigns. In this work, we provide an overview of an optimal sampling design framework based on Bayesian decision theory, statistical parameter inference and Bayesian model averaging. It optimizes the field sampling campaign around decisions on environmental performance metrics (e.g., risk, arrival times, etc.) while accounting for parametric and model uncertainty in the geostatistical characterization, in forcing terms, and measurement error. The appealing aspects of the framework lie on its goal-oriented character and that it is directly linked to the confidence in a specified decision. We illustrate how these concepts could be applied in a human health risk problem where uncertainty from both hydrogeological and health parameters are accounted.

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study exhibit C. Volume 3: Experimental verification definition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

An environmentally oriented microwave technology exploratory research program aimed at reducing the uncertainty associated with microwave power system critical technical issues is described. Topics discussed include: (1) Solar Power Satellite System (SPS) development plan elements; (2) critical technology issues related to the SPS preliminary reference configuration; (3) pilot plant to demonstrate commercial viability of the SPS system; and (4) research areas required to demonstrate feasibility of the SPS system. Progress in the development of advanced GaAs solar cells is reported along with a power distribution subsystem.

Imprecision and Uncertainty in the UFO Database Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Gyseghem, Nancy; De Caluwe, Rita

1998-01-01

Discusses how imprecision and uncertainty are dealt with in the UFO (Uncertainty and Fuzziness in an Object-oriented) database model. Such information is expressed by means of possibility distributions, and modeled by means of the proposed concept of "role objects." The role objects model uncertain, tentative information about objects,…

Overview of the MEDLI Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gazarik, Michael J.; Hwang, Helen; Little, Alan; Cheatwood, Neil; Wright, Michael; Herath, Jeff

2007-01-01

The Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) Project's objectives are to measure aerothermal environments, sub-surface heatshield material response, vehicle orientation, and atmospheric density for the atmospheric entry and descent phases of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle. The flight science objectives of MEDLI directly address the largest uncertainties in the ability to design and validate a robust Mars entry system, including aerothermal, aerodynamic and atmosphere models, and thermal protection system (TPS) design. The instrumentation suite will be installed in the heatshield of the MSL entry vehicle. The acquired data will support future Mars entry and aerocapture missions by providing measured atmospheric data to validate Mars atmosphere models and clarify the design margins for future Mars missions. MEDLI thermocouple and recession sensor data will significantly improve the understanding of aeroheating and TPS performance uncertainties for future missions. MEDLI pressure data will permit more accurate trajectory reconstruction, as well as separation of aerodynamic and atmospheric uncertainties in the hypersonic and supersonic regimes. This paper provides an overview of the project including the instrumentation design, system architecture, and expected measurement response.

Overview of the MEDLI Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gazarik, Michael J.; Little, Alan; Cheatwood, F. Neil; Wright, Michael J.; Herath, Jeff A.; Martinez, Edward R.; Munk, Michelle; Novak, Frank J.; Wright, Henry S.

2008-01-01

The Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) Project s objectives are to measure aerothermal environments, sub-surface heatshield material response, vehicle orientation, and atmospheric density for the atmospheric entry and descent phases of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle. The flight science objectives of MEDLI directly address the largest uncertainties in the ability to design and validate a robust Mars entry system, including aerothermal, aerodynamic and atmosphere models, and thermal protection system (TPS) design. The instrumentation suite will be installed in the heatshield of the MSL entry vehicle. The acquired data will support future Mars entry and aerocapture missions by providing measured atmospheric data to validate Mars atmosphere models and clarify the design margins for future Mars missions. MEDLI thermocouple and recession sensor data will significantly improve the understanding of aeroheating and TPS performance uncertainties for future missions. MEDLI pressure data will permit more accurate trajectory reconstruction, as well as separation of aerodynamic and atmospheric uncertainties in the hypersonic and supersonic regimes. This paper provides an overview of the project including the instrumentation design, system architecture, and expected measurement response.

Position, Orientation and Velocity Detection of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) Using an Optical Detector Array

PubMed Central

Pe’eri, Shachak; Thein, May-Win; Rzhanov, Yuri; Celikkol, Barbaros; Swift, M. Robinson

2017-01-01

This paper presents a proof-of-concept optical detector array sensor system to be used in Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) navigation. The performance of the developed optical detector array was evaluated for its capability to estimate the position, orientation and forward velocity of UUVs with respect to a light source fixed in underwater. The evaluations were conducted through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical tests under a variety of motion configurations. Monte Carlo simulations also evaluated the system total propagated uncertainty (TPU) by taking into account variations in the water column turbidity, temperature and hardware noise that may degrade the system performance. Empirical tests were conducted to estimate UUV position and velocity during its navigation to a light beacon. Monte Carlo simulation and empirical results support the use of the detector array system for optics based position feedback for UUV positioning applications. PMID:28758936

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar; Department of Oncology and Radiotherapy, St. Olavs University Hospital, N-7006 Trondheim

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scansmore » of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16x16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can be compared with the film-measured dose distribution using a dose constraint of 4% (relative to the measured dose) for doses between 1 and 3 Gy. At lower doses, the dose constraint must be relaxed.« less

GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: a novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

2008-07-01

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16 x 16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can be compared with the film-measured dose distribution using a dose constraint of 4% (relative to the measured dose) for doses between 1 and 3 Gy. At lower doses, the dose constraint must be relaxed.

Geometry and solid angle corrections for accurate measurement of multipole and parity mixing ratios using nuclear orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roccia, S.; Gaulard, C.; Étilé, A.; Chakma, R.

2017-07-01

In the context of nuclear orientation, we propose a new method to correct the multipole mixing ratios for asymmetries in the geometry of the setup but also in the detection system. This method is also robust against temperature fluctuations, beam intensity fluctuations and uncertainties in the nuclear structure of the nuclei. Additionally, this method provides a natural way to combine data from different detectors and make good use of all available statistics. We could use this method to demonstrate the accuracy that can be reached with the PolarEx setup now installed at the ALTO facility.

Towards Interpreting the Signal of CO2 Emissions from Megacities by Applying a Lagrangian Receptor-oriented Model to OCO-2 XCO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.; Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Yang, E. G.; Kort, E. A.

2017-12-01

Urban regions are large emitters of CO2 whose emission inventories are still associated with large uncertainties. Therefore, a strong need exists to better quantify emissions from megacities using a top-down approach. Satellites — e.g., the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), provide a platform for monitoring spatiotemporal column CO2 concentrations (XCO2). In this study, we present a Lagrangian receptor-oriented model framework and evaluate "model-retrieved" XCO2 by comparing against OCO-2-retrieved XCO2, for three megacities/regions (Riyadh, Cairo and Pearl River Delta). OCO-2 soundings indicate pronounced XCO2 enhancements (dXCO2) when crossing Riyadh, which are successfully captured by our model with a slight latitude shift. From this model framework, we can identify and compare the relative contributions of dXCO2 resulted from anthropogenic emission versus biospheric fluxes. In addition, to impose constraints on emissions for Riyadh through inversion methods, three uncertainties sources are addressed in this study, including 1) transport errors, 2) receptor and model setups in atmospheric models, and 3) urban emission uncertainties. For 1), we calculate transport errors by adding a wind error component to randomize particle distributions. For 2), a set of sensitivity tests using bootstrap method is performed to describe proper ways to setup receptors in Lagrangian models. For 3), both emission uncertainties from the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) and the spread among three emission inventories are used to approximate an overall fractional uncertainty in modeled anthropogenic signal (dXCO2.anthro). Lastly, we investigate the definition of background (clean) XCO2 for megacities from retrieved XCO2 by means of statistical tools and our model framework.

Adaptive control of space based robot manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Michael W.; Wee, Liang-Boon

1991-01-01

For space based robots in which the base is free to move, motion planning and control is complicated by uncertainties in the inertial properties of the manipulator and its load. A new adaptive control method is presented for space based robots which achieves globally stable trajectory tracking in the presence of uncertainties in the inertial parameters of the system. A partition is made of the fifteen degree of freedom system dynamics into two parts: a nine degree of freedom invertible portion and a six degree of freedom noninvertible portion. The controller is then designed to achieve trajectory tracking of the invertible portion of the system. This portion consist of the manipulator joint positions and the orientation of the base. The motion of the noninvertible portion is bounded, but unpredictable. This portion consist of the position of the robot's base and the position of the reaction wheel.

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

Stochastic multi-objective auto-optimization for resource allocation decision-making in fixed-input health systems.

PubMed

Bastian, Nathaniel D; Ekin, Tahir; Kang, Hyojung; Griffin, Paul M; Fulton, Lawrence V; Grannan, Benjamin C

2017-06-01

The management of hospitals within fixed-input health systems such as the U.S. Military Health System (MHS) can be challenging due to the large number of hospitals, as well as the uncertainty in input resources and achievable outputs. This paper introduces a stochastic multi-objective auto-optimization model (SMAOM) for resource allocation decision-making in fixed-input health systems. The model can automatically identify where to re-allocate system input resources at the hospital level in order to optimize overall system performance, while considering uncertainty in the model parameters. The model is applied to 128 hospitals in the three services (Air Force, Army, and Navy) in the MHS using hospital-level data from 2009 - 2013. The results are compared to the traditional input-oriented variable returns-to-scale Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The application of SMAOM to the MHS increases the expected system-wide technical efficiency by 18 % over the DEA model while also accounting for uncertainty of health system inputs and outputs. The developed method is useful for decision-makers in the Defense Health Agency (DHA), who have a strategic level objective of integrating clinical and business processes through better sharing of resources across the MHS and through system-wide standardization across the services. It is also less sensitive to data outliers or sampling errors than traditional DEA methods.

Analyzing the uncertainty of ensemble-based gridded observations in land surface simulations and drought assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modeling is one of the primary tools utilized for drought monitoring and drought early warning systems. Several sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling have been addressed in the literature. However, few studies have assessed the uncertainty of gridded observation datasets from a drought monitoring perspective. This study provides a hydrologic modeling oriented analysis of the gridded observation data uncertainties over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and its implications on drought assessment. We utilized a recently developed 100-member ensemble-based observed forcing data to simulate hydrologic fluxes at 1/8° spatial resolution using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and compared the results with a deterministic observation. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied at multiple timescales over the basin, and seasonal long-term trends and variations of drought extent is investigated for each case. Results reveal large uncertainty of observed datasets at monthly timescale, with systematic differences for temperature records, mainly due to different lapse rates. The uncertainty eventuates in large disparities of drought characteristics. In general, an increasing trend is found for winter drought extent across the PNW. Furthermore, a ∼3% decrease per decade is detected for snow water equivalent (SWE) over the PNW, with the region being more susceptible to SWE variations of the northern Rockies than the western Cascades. The agricultural areas of southern Idaho demonstrate decreasing trend of natural soil moisture as a result of precipitation decline, which implies higher appeal for anthropogenic water storage and irrigation systems.

Markov logic network based complex event detection under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jingyang; Jia, Bin; Chen, Genshe; Chen, Hua-mei; Sullivan, Nichole; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2018-05-01

In a cognitive reasoning system, the four-stage Observe-Orient-Decision-Act (OODA) reasoning loop is of interest. The OODA loop is essential for the situational awareness especially in heterogeneous data fusion. Cognitive reasoning for making decisions can take advantage of different formats of information such as symbolic observations, various real-world sensor readings, or the relationship between intelligent modalities. Markov Logic Network (MLN) provides mathematically sound technique in presenting and fusing data at multiple levels of abstraction, and across multiple intelligent sensors to conduct complex decision-making tasks. In this paper, a scenario about vehicle interaction is investigated, in which uncertainty is taken into consideration as no systematic approaches can perfectly characterize the complex event scenario. MLNs are applied to the terrestrial domain where the dynamic features and relationships among vehicles are captured through multiple sensors and information sources regarding the data uncertainty.

Output-Based Adaptive Meshing Applied to Space Launch System Booster Separation Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalle, Derek J.; Rogers, Stuart E.

2015-01-01

This paper presents details of Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of the Space Launch System during solid-rocket booster separation using the Cart3D inviscid code with comparisons to Overflow viscous CFD results and a wind tunnel test performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Unitary PlanWind Tunnel. The Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle includes two solid-rocket boosters that burn out before the primary core stage and thus must be discarded during the ascent trajectory. The main challenges for creating an aerodynamic database for this separation event are the large number of basis variables (including orientation of the core, relative position and orientation of the boosters, and rocket thrust levels) and the complex flow caused by the booster separation motors. The solid-rocket boosters are modified from their form when used with the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle, which has a rich flight history. However, the differences between the SLS core and the Space Shuttle External Tank result in the boosters separating with much narrower clearances, and so reducing aerodynamic uncertainty is necessary to clear the integrated system for flight. This paper discusses an approach that has been developed to analyze about 6000 wind tunnel simulations and 5000 flight vehicle simulations using Cart3D in adaptive-meshing mode. In addition, a discussion is presented of Overflow viscous CFD runs used for uncertainty quantification. Finally, the article presents lessons learned and improvements that will be implemented in future separation databases.

What's in a name? Intolerance of uncertainty, other uncertainty-relevant constructs, and their differential relations to worry and generalized anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Koerner, Naomi; Mejia, Teresa; Kusec, Andrea

2017-03-01

A number of studies have examined the association of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) to trait worry and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). However, few studies have examined the extent of overlap between IU and other psychological constructs that bear conceptual resemblance to IU, despite the fact that IU-type constructs have been discussed and examined extensively within psychology and other disciplines. The present study investigated (1) the associations of IU, trait worry, and GAD status to a negative risk orientation, trait curiosity, indecisiveness, perceived constraints, self-oriented and socially prescribed perfectionism, intolerance of ambiguity, the need for predictability, and the need for order and structure and (2) whether IU is a unique correlate of trait worry and of the presence versus absence of Probable GAD, when overlap with other uncertainty-relevant constructs is accounted for. N = 255 adults completed self-report measures of the aforementioned constructs. Each of the constructs was significantly associated with IU. Only IU, and a subset of the other uncertainty-relevant constructs were correlated with trait worry or distinguished the Probable GAD group from the Non-GAD group. IU was the strongest unique correlate of trait worry and of the presence versus absence of Probable GAD. Indecisiveness, self-oriented perfectionism and the need for predictability were also unique correlates of trait worry or GAD status. Implications of the findings are discussed, in particular as they pertain to the definition, conceptualization, and cognitive-behavioral treatment of IU in GAD.

Vibration control of uncertain multiple launch rocket system using radial basis function neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Rui, Xiaoting

2018-01-01

Poor dispersion characteristics of rockets due to the vibration of Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) have always restricted the MLRS development for several decades. Vibration control is a key technique to improve the dispersion characteristics of rockets. For a mechanical system such as MLRS, the major difficulty in designing an appropriate control strategy that can achieve the desired vibration control performance is to guarantee the robustness and stability of the control system under the occurrence of uncertainties and nonlinearities. To approach this problem, a computed torque controller integrated with a radial basis function neural network is proposed to achieve the high-precision vibration control for MLRS. In this paper, the vibration response of a computed torque controlled MLRS is described. The azimuth and elevation mechanisms of the MLRS are driven by permanent magnet synchronous motors and supposed to be rigid. First, the dynamic model of motor-mechanism coupling system is established using Lagrange method and field-oriented control theory. Then, in order to deal with the nonlinearities, a computed torque controller is designed to control the vibration of the MLRS when it is firing a salvo of rockets. Furthermore, to compensate for the lumped uncertainty due to parametric variations and un-modeled dynamics in the design of the computed torque controller, a radial basis function neural network estimator is developed to adapt the uncertainty based on Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the simulated results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control system and show that the proposed controller is robust with regard to the uncertainty.

A spatial disorientation predictor device to enhance pilot situational awareness regarding aircraft attitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelette, T. L.; Repperger, Daniel W.; Albery, W. B.

1991-01-01

An effort was initiated at the Armstrong Aerospace Medical Research Laboratory (AAMRL) to investigate the improvement of the situational awareness of a pilot with respect to his aircraft's spatial orientation. The end product of this study is a device to alert a pilot to potentially disorienting situations. Much like a ground collision avoidance system (GCAS) is used in fighter aircraft to alert the pilot to 'pull up' when dangerous flight paths are predicted, this device warns the pilot to put a higher priority on attention to the orientation instrument. A Kalman filter was developed which estimates the pilot's perceived position and orientation. The input to the Kalman filter consists of two classes of data. The first class of data consists of noise parameters (indicating parameter uncertainty), conflict signals (e.g. vestibular and kinesthetic signal disagreement), and some nonlinear effects. The Kalman filter's perceived estimates are now the sum of both Class 1 data (good information) and Class 2 data (distorted information). When the estimated perceived position or orientation is significantly different from the actual position or orientation, the pilot is alerted.

Laser tracker orientation in confined space using on-board targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yang; Kyle, Stephen; Lin, Jiarui; Yang, Linghui; Ren, Yu; Zhu, Jigui

2016-08-01

This paper presents a novel orientation method for two laser trackers using on-board targets attached to the tracker head and rotating with it. The technique extends an existing method developed for theodolite intersection systems which are now rarely used. This method requires only a very narrow space along the baseline between the instrument heads, in order to establish the orientation relationship. This has potential application in environments where space is restricted. The orientation parameters can be calculated by means of two-face reciprocal measurements to the on-board targets, and measurements to a common point close to the baseline. An accurate model is then applied which can be solved through nonlinear optimization. Experimental comparison has been made with the conventional orientation method, which is based on measurements to common intersection points located off the baseline. This requires more space and the comparison has demonstrated the feasibility of the more compact technique presented here. Physical setup and testing suggest that the method is practical. Uncertainties estimated by simulation indicate good performance in terms of measurement quality.

The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika

2015-01-01

Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929

Therapist in distress: team-supervision of social workers and family therapists who work and live under political uncertainty.

PubMed

Shamai, M

1998-01-01

This article describes and analyzes a 2-year supervision process with social workers and family therapists who live and work under conditions of uncertainty on the West Bank. The systemic orientation used in this specific approach to supervision emphasizes the double role of the therapist: one as part of the therapeutic system, and the second as a member of the same community that is living in political uncertainty. The analysis revealed that a long-term supervision process, in which the supervisor encouraged a containing context, was meaningful to the group. As a result of this secure atmosphere, the group was ready to talk about painful issues like loss as the result of war and terrorist attacks, loss as a result of immigration, and loss of ideals. Furthermore, the members of the group were ready to confront the possibility of relocation and their role in such a situation. The techniques used in the process, such as narrative and metaphors, were implemented by the members in their daily professional interventions. The flexibility between working on regular professional issues and issues related to stress and uncertainty seemed useful to the supervision, as well as the political dialogue that was created between the supervisor and the group.

Femoral anatomical frame: assessment of various definitions.

PubMed

Della Croce, U; Camomilla, V; Leardini, A; Cappozzo, A

2003-06-01

The reliability of the estimate of joint kinematic variables and the relevant functional interpretation are affected by the uncertainty with which bony anatomical landmarks and underlying bony segment anatomical frames are determined. When a stereo-photogrammetric system is used for in vivo studies, minimising and compensating for this uncertainty is crucial. This paper deals with the propagation of the errors associated with the location of both internal and palpable femoral anatomical landmarks to the estimation of the orientation of the femoral anatomical frame and to the knee joint angles during movement. Given eight anatomical landmarks, and the precision with which they can be identified experimentally, 12 different rules were defined for the construction of the anatomical frame and submitted to comparative assessment. Results showed that using more than three landmarks allows for more repeatable anatomical frame orientation and knee joint kinematics estimation. Novel rules are proposed that use optimization algorithms. On the average, the femoral frame orientation dispersion had a standard deviation of 2, 2.5 and 1.5 degrees for the frontal, transverse, and sagittal plane, respectively. However, a proper choice of the relevant construction rule allowed for a reduction of these inaccuracies in selected planes to 1 degrees rms. The dispersion of the knee adduction-abduction and internal-external rotation angles could also be limited to 1 degrees rms irrespective of the flexion angle value.

Sexual Orientation Self-Presentation Among Bisexual-Identified Women and Men: Patterns and Predictors.

PubMed

Mohr, Jonathan J; Jackson, Skyler D; Sheets, Raymond L

2017-07-01

Writing on the experiences of bisexual-identified people has highlighted the potential complexity of the ongoing process of deciding when and how to present one's sexual orientation identity to others (Rust, 2002). The two studies presented here were designed to contribute basic knowledge regarding self-presentation of sexual orientation among bisexual people. In Study 1, bisexual participants (N = 147) were less likely than their lesbian and gay (LG) peers (N = 191) to present their actual orientation to others, and more likely to present themselves as having a sexual orientation different from their actual orientation. These sexual orientation differences were explained by gender of romantic partner and uncertainty about one's sexual orientation. Sexual orientation differences also emerged in links between self-presentation and outness level. For example, bisexual participants who presented themselves as LG had relatively high everyday outness levels; in contrast, LG participants who presented themselves as bisexual had relatively low everyday outness levels. In Study 2, 240 bisexual women and men indicated their levels of outness as a sexual minority person (potentially including identification as gay, lesbian, queer) and specifically as bisexual. Outness was higher with respect to status as a sexual minority compared to status as bisexual; the magnitude of this difference was predicted by gender of romantic partner and uncertainty about one's sexual orientation. Moreover, even controlling for outness as a sexual minority person, well-being was predicted by outness as bisexual to family members.

Listening beyond the Self: How Organizations Create Direct Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michel, Alexandra; Wortham, Stanton

2007-01-01

A two-year ethnographic study examines how two U.S. investment banks managed bankers' uncertainty differently and achieved distinct forms of participant transformation, including listening outcomes. People Bank reduced uncertainty by conveying abstract concepts. Socialized bankers exhibited a preferential orientation toward abstractions, including…

Quantification of LiDAR measurement uncertainty through propagation of errors due to sensor sub-systems and terrain morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulden, T.; Hopkinson, C.

2013-12-01

The quantification of LiDAR sensor measurement uncertainty is important for evaluating the quality of derived DEM products, compiling risk assessment of management decisions based from LiDAR information, and enhancing LiDAR mission planning capabilities. Current quality assurance estimates of LiDAR measurement uncertainty are limited to post-survey empirical assessments or vendor estimates from commercial literature. Empirical evidence can provide valuable information for the performance of the sensor in validated areas; however, it cannot characterize the spatial distribution of measurement uncertainty throughout the extensive coverage of typical LiDAR surveys. Vendor advertised error estimates are often restricted to strict and optimal survey conditions, resulting in idealized values. Numerical modeling of individual pulse uncertainty provides an alternative method for estimating LiDAR measurement uncertainty. LiDAR measurement uncertainty is theoretically assumed to fall into three distinct categories, 1) sensor sub-system errors, 2) terrain influences, and 3) vegetative influences. This research details the procedures for numerical modeling of measurement uncertainty from the sensor sub-system (GPS, IMU, laser scanner, laser ranger) and terrain influences. Results show that errors tend to increase as the laser scan angle, altitude or laser beam incidence angle increase. An experimental survey over a flat and paved runway site, performed with an Optech ALTM 3100 sensor, showed an increase in modeled vertical errors of 5 cm, at a nadir scan orientation, to 8 cm at scan edges; for an aircraft altitude of 1200 m and half scan angle of 15°. In a survey with the same sensor, at a highly sloped glacial basin site absent of vegetation, modeled vertical errors reached over 2 m. Validation of error models within the glacial environment, over three separate flight lines, respectively showed 100%, 85%, and 75% of elevation residuals fell below error predictions. Future work in LiDAR sensor measurement uncertainty must focus on the development of vegetative error models to create more robust error prediction algorithms. To achieve this objective, comprehensive empirical exploratory analysis is recommended to relate vegetative parameters to observed errors.

Final Technical Report: Mathematical Foundations for Uncertainty Quantification in Materials Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Plechac, Petr; Vlachos, Dionisios G.

We developed path-wise information theory-based and goal-oriented sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics and in particular of non-equilibrium extended molecular systems. The combination of these novel methodologies provided the first methods in the literature which are capable to handle UQ questions for stochastic complex systems with some or all of the following features: (a) multi-scale stochastic models such as (bio)chemical reaction networks, with a very large number of parameters, (b) spatially distributed systems such as Kinetic Monte Carlo or Langevin Dynamics, (c) non-equilibrium processes typically associated with coupled physico-chemical mechanisms, driven boundary conditions, hybrid micro-macro systems,more » etc. A particular computational challenge arises in simulations of multi-scale reaction networks and molecular systems. Mathematical techniques were applied to in silico prediction of novel materials with emphasis on the effect of microstructure on model uncertainty quantification (UQ). We outline acceleration methods to make calculations of real chemistry feasible followed by two complementary tasks on structure optimization and microstructure-induced UQ.« less

Pelvic orientation for total hip arthroplasty in lateral decubitus: can it be accurately measured?

PubMed

Sykes, Alice M; Hill, Janet C; Orr, John F; Gill, Harinderjit S; Salazar, Jose J; Humphreys, Lee D; Beverland, David E

2016-05-16

During total hip arthroplasty (THA), accurately predicting acetabular cup orientation remains a key challenge, in great part because of uncertainty about pelvic orientation. This pilot study aimed to develop and validate a technique to measure pelvic orientation; establish its accuracy in the location of anatomical landmarks and subsequently; investigate if limb movement during a simulated surgical procedure alters pelvic orientation. The developed technique measured 3-D orientation of an isolated Sawbone pelvis, it was then implemented to measure pelvic orientation in lateral decubitus with post-THA patients (n = 20) using a motion capture system. Orientation of the isolated Sawbone pelvis was accurately measured, demonstrated by high correlations with angular data from a coordinate measurement machine; R-squared values close to 1 for all pelvic axes. When applied to volunteer subjects, largest movements occurred about the longitudinal pelvic axis; internal and external pelvic rotation. Rotations about the anteroposterior axis, which directly affect inclination angles, showed >75% of participants had movement within ±5° of neutral, 0°. The technique accurately measured orientation of the isolated bony pelvis. This was not the case in a simulated theatre environment. Soft tissue landmarks were difficult to palpate repeatedly. These findings have direct clinical relevance, landmark registration in lateral decubitus is a potential source of error, contributing here to large ranges in measured movement. Surgeons must be aware that present techniques using bony landmarks to reference pelvic orientation for cup implantation, both computer-based and mechanical, may not be sufficiently accurate.

Differentiating intolerance of uncertainty from three related but distinct constructs.

PubMed

Rosen, Natalie O; Ivanova, Elena; Knäuper, Bärbel

2014-01-01

Individual differences in uncertainty have been associated with heightened anxiety, stress and approach-oriented coping. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a trait characteristic that arises from negative beliefs about uncertainty and its consequences. Researchers have established the central role of IU in the development of problematic worry and maladaptive coping, highlighting the importance of this construct to anxiety disorders. However, there is a need to improve our understanding of the phenomenology of IU. The goal of this paper was to present hypotheses regarding the similarities and differences between IU and three related constructs--intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty orientation, and need for cognitive closure--and to call for future empirical studies to substantiate these hypotheses. To assist with achieving this goal, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, which also served to identify current gaps in knowledge. This paper differentiates these constructs by outlining each definition and general approaches to assessment, reviewing the existing empirical relations, and proposing theoretical similarities and distinctions. Findings may assist researchers in selecting the appropriate construct to address their research questions. Future research directions for the application of these constructs, particularly within the field of clinical and health psychology, are discussed.

Distributed sensing of ionospheric irregularities with a GNSS receiver array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yang; Datta-Barua, Seebany; Bust, Gary S.; Deshpande, Kshitija B.

2017-08-01

We present analysis methods for studying the structuring and motion of ionospheric irregularities at the subkilometer scale sizes that produce L band scintillations. Spaced-receiver methods are used for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers' phase measurements over approximately subkilometer to kilometer length baselines for the first time. The quantities estimated by these techniques are plasma drift velocity, diffraction anisotropy magnitude and orientation, and characteristic velocity. Uncertainties are quantified by ensemble simulation of noise on the phase signals carried through to the observations of the spaced-receiver linear system. These covariances are then propagated through to uncertainties on drifts through linearization about the estimated values of the state. Five receivers of SAGA, the Scintillation Auroral Global Positioning System (GPS) Array, provide 100 Hz power and phase data for each channel at L1 frequency. The array is sited in the auroral zone at Poker Flat Research Range, Alaska. A case study of a single scintillating satellite observed by the array is used to demonstrate the spaced-receiver and uncertainty estimation process. A second case study estimates drifts as measured by multiple scintillating channels. These scintillations are correlated with auroral activity, based on all-sky camera images. Measurements and uncertainty estimates made over a 30 min period are compared to a collocated incoherent scatter radar and show good agreement in horizontal drift speed and direction during periods of scintillation for which the characteristic velocity is less than the drift velocity.

Detection of preferential particle orientation in the atmosphere. Development of an alternative polarization lidar system

DOE PAGES

Geier, Manfred; Arienti, Marco

2014-07-19

Increasing interest in polarimetric characterization of atmospheric aerosols has led to the development of complete sample-measuring (Mueller) polarimeters that are capable of measuring the entire backscattering phase matrix of a probed volume. The Mueller polarimeters consist of several moving parts, which limit measurement rates and complicate data analysis. In this paper, we present the concept of a less complex polarization lidar setup for detection of preferential orientation of atmospheric particulates. On the basis of theoretical considerations of data inversion stability and propagation of measurement uncertainties, an optimum optical configuration is established for two modes of operation (with either a linearmore » or a circular polarized incident laser beam). We discovered that the conceptualized setup falls in the category of incomplete sample-measuring polarimeters and uses four detection channels for simultaneous measurement of the backscattered light. Likewise, the expected performance characteristics are discussed through an example of a typical aerosol with a small fraction of particles oriented in a preferred direction. As a result, the theoretical analysis suggests that achievable accuracies in backscatter cross-sections and depolarization ratios are similar to those with conventional two-channel configurations, while in addition preferential orientation can be detected with the proposed four-channel system for a wide range of conditions.« less

Computational study on the interactions and orientation of monoclonal human immunoglobulin G on a polystyrene surface

PubMed Central

Javkhlantugs, Namsrai; Bayar, Hexig; Ganzorig, Chimed; Ueda, Kazuyoshi

2013-01-01

Having a theoretical understanding of the orientation of immunoglobulin on an immobilized solid surface is important in biomedical pathogen-detecting systems and cellular analysis. Despite the stable adsorption of immunoglobulin on a polystyrene (PS) surface that has been applied in many kinds of immunoassays, there are many uncertainties in antibody-based clinical and biological experimental methods. To understand the binding mechanism and physicochemical interactions between immunoglobulin and the PS surface at the atomic level, we investigated the binding behavior and interactions of the monoclonal immunoglobulin G (IgG) on the PS surface using the computational method. In our docking simulation with the different arrangement of translational and rotational orientation of IgG onto the PS surface, three typical orientation patterns of the immunoglobulin G on the PS surface were found. We precisely analyzed these orientation patterns and clarified how the immunoglobulin G interacts with the PS surface at atomic scale in the beginning of the adsorption process. Major driving forces for the adsorption of IgG onto the PS surface come from serine (Ser), aspartic acid (Asp), and glutamic acid (Glu) residues. PMID:23874096

Pupil dilation during recognition memory: Isolating unexpected recognition from judgment uncertainty.

PubMed

Mill, Ravi D; O'Connor, Akira R; Dobbins, Ian G

2016-09-01

Optimally discriminating familiar from novel stimuli demands a decision-making process informed by prior expectations. Here we demonstrate that pupillary dilation (PD) responses during recognition memory decisions are modulated by expectations, and more specifically, that pupil dilation increases for unexpected compared to expected recognition. Furthermore, multi-level modeling demonstrated that the time course of the dilation during each individual trial contains separable early and late dilation components, with the early amplitude capturing unexpected recognition, and the later trailing slope reflecting general judgment uncertainty or effort. This is the first demonstration that the early dilation response during recognition is dependent upon observer expectations and that separate recognition expectation and judgment uncertainty components are present in the dilation time course of every trial. The findings provide novel insights into adaptive memory-linked orienting mechanisms as well as the general cognitive underpinnings of the pupillary index of autonomic nervous system activity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferring soil salinity in a drip irrigation system from multi-configuration EMI measurements using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaib Jadoon, Khan; Umer Altaf, Muhammad; McCabe, Matthew Francis; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Muhammad, Nisar; Moghadas, Davood; Weihermüller, Lutz

2017-10-01

A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In MCMC the posterior distribution is computed using Bayes' rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell's equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD Mini-Explorer. Uncertainty in the parameters for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness as compared to layers electrical conductivity are not very informative and are therefore difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC-based inversion to field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrates that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provides useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

Made-to-measure modelling of observed galaxy dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovy, Jo; Kawata, Daisuke; Hunt, Jason A. S.

2018-01-01

Amongst dynamical modelling techniques, the made-to-measure (M2M) method for modelling steady-state systems is amongst the most flexible, allowing non-parametric distribution functions in complex gravitational potentials to be modelled efficiently using N-body particles. Here, we propose and test various improvements to the standard M2M method for modelling observed data, illustrated using the simple set-up of a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator. We demonstrate that nuisance parameters describing the modelled system's orientation with respect to the observer - e.g. an external galaxy's inclination or the Sun's position in the Milky Way - as well as the parameters of an external gravitational field can be optimized simultaneously with the particle weights. We develop a method for sampling from the high-dimensional uncertainty distribution of the particle weights. We combine this in a Gibbs sampler with samplers for the nuisance and potential parameters to explore the uncertainty distribution of the full set of parameters. We illustrate our M2M improvements by modelling the vertical density and kinematics of F-type stars in Gaia DR1. The novel M2M method proposed here allows full probabilistic modelling of steady-state dynamical systems, allowing uncertainties on the non-parametric distribution function and on nuisance parameters to be taken into account when constraining the dark and baryonic masses of stellar systems.

Data-free and data-driven spectral perturbations for RANS UQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edeling, Wouter; Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

Despite recent developments in high-fidelity turbulent flow simulations, RANS modeling is still vastly used by industry, due to its inherent low cost. Since accuracy is a concern in RANS modeling, model-form UQ is an essential tool for assessing the impacts of this uncertainty on quantities of interest. Applying the spectral decomposition to the modeled Reynolds-Stress Tensor (RST) allows for the introduction of decoupled perturbations into the baseline intensity (kinetic energy), shape (eigenvalues), and orientation (eigenvectors). This constitutes a natural methodology to evaluate the model form uncertainty associated to different aspects of RST modeling. In a predictive setting, one frequently encounters an absence of any relevant reference data. To make data-free predictions with quantified uncertainty we employ physical bounds to a-priori define maximum spectral perturbations. When propagated, these perturbations yield intervals of engineering utility. High-fidelity data opens up the possibility of inferring a distribution of uncertainty, by means of various data-driven machine-learning techniques. We will demonstrate our framework on a number of flow problems where RANS models are prone to failure. This research was partially supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo), and the DOE PSAAP-II program.

A computationally inexpensive model for estimating dimensional measurement uncertainty due to x-ray computed tomography instrument misalignments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ametova, Evelina; Ferrucci, Massimiliano; Chilingaryan, Suren; Dewulf, Wim

2018-06-01

The recent emergence of advanced manufacturing techniques such as additive manufacturing and an increased demand on the integrity of components have motivated research on the application of x-ray computed tomography (CT) for dimensional quality control. While CT has shown significant empirical potential for this purpose, there is a need for metrological research to accelerate the acceptance of CT as a measuring instrument. The accuracy in CT-based measurements is vulnerable to the instrument geometrical configuration during data acquisition, namely the relative position and orientation of x-ray source, rotation stage, and detector. Consistency between the actual instrument geometry and the corresponding parameters used in the reconstruction algorithm is critical. Currently available procedures provide users with only estimates of geometrical parameters. Quantification and propagation of uncertainty in the measured geometrical parameters must be considered to provide a complete uncertainty analysis and to establish confidence intervals for CT dimensional measurements. In this paper, we propose a computationally inexpensive model to approximate the influence of errors in CT geometrical parameters on dimensional measurement results. We use surface points extracted from a computer-aided design (CAD) model to model discrepancies in the radiographic image coordinates assigned to the projected edges between an aligned system and a system with misalignments. The efficacy of the proposed method was confirmed on simulated and experimental data in the presence of various geometrical uncertainty contributors.

Computation and visualization of uncertainty in surgical navigation.

PubMed

Simpson, Amber L; Ma, Burton; Vasarhelyi, Edward M; Borschneck, Dan P; Ellis, Randy E; James Stewart, A

2014-09-01

Surgical displays do not show uncertainty information with respect to the position and orientation of instruments. Data is presented as though it were perfect; surgeons unaware of this uncertainty could make critical navigational mistakes. The propagation of uncertainty to the tip of a surgical instrument is described and a novel uncertainty visualization method is proposed. An extensive study with surgeons has examined the effect of uncertainty visualization on surgical performance with pedicle screw insertion, a procedure highly sensitive to uncertain data. It is shown that surgical performance (time to insert screw, degree of breach of pedicle, and rotation error) is not impeded by the additional cognitive burden imposed by uncertainty visualization. Uncertainty can be computed in real time and visualized without adversely affecting surgical performance, and the best method of uncertainty visualization may depend upon the type of navigation display. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimizing point-of-care testing in clinical systems management.

PubMed

Kost, G J

1998-01-01

The goal of improving medical and economic outcomes calls for leadership based on fundamental principles. The manager of clinical systems works collaboratively within the acute care center to optimize point-of-care testing through systematic approaches such as integrative strategies, algorithms, and performance maps. These approaches are effective and efficacious for critically ill patients. Optimizing point-of-care testing throughout the entire health-care system is inherently more difficult. There is potential to achieve high-quality testing, integrated disease management, and equitable health-care delivery. Despite rapid change and economic uncertainty, a macro-strategic, information-integrated, feedback-systems, outcomes-oriented approach is timely, challenging, effective, and uplifting to the creative human spirit.

Effects of relational uncertainty in heightening national identification and reactive approach motivation of Japanese.

PubMed

Terashima, Yuto; Takai, Jiro

2017-03-23

This study investigated whether relational uncertainty poses uncertainty threat, which causes compensatory behaviours among Japanese. We hypothesised that Japanese, as collectivists, would perceive relational uncertainty to pose uncertainty threat. In two experiments, we manipulated relational uncertainty, and confirmed that participants exhibited compensatory reactions to reduce aversive feelings due to it. In Study 1, we conducted direct comparison between relational uncertainty, independent self-uncertainty and control conditions. The results revealed that participants who were instructed to imagine events pertaining to relational uncertainty heightened national identification as compensation than did participants in the control condition, but independent self-uncertainty did not provoke such effects. In Study 2, we again manipulated relational uncertainty; however, we also manipulated participants' individualism-collectivism cultural orientation through priming, and the analyses yielded a significant interaction effect between these variables. Relational uncertainty evoked reactive approach motivation, a cause for compensatory behaviours, among participants primed with collectivism, but not for individualism. It was concluded that the effect of uncertainty on compensatory behaviour is influenced by cultural priming, and that relational uncertainty is important to Japanese. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

An interval-based possibilistic programming method for waste management with cost minimization and environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, Y P; Huang, G H

2010-09-15

Considerable public concerns have been raised in the past decades since a large amount of pollutant emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal of processes pose risks on surrounding environment and human health. Moreover, in MSW management, various uncertainties exist in the related costs, impact factors and objectives, which can affect the optimization processes and the decision schemes generated. In this study, an interval-based possibilistic programming (IBPP) method is developed for planning the MSW management with minimized system cost and environmental impact under uncertainty. The developed method can deal with uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy sets in the left- and right-hand sides of constraints and objective function. An interactive algorithm is provided for solving the IBPP problem, which does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. The developed model is applied to a case study of planning a MSW management system, where mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is introduced into the IBPP framework to facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of timing, sizing and siting in terms of capacity expansion for waste-management facilities. Three cases based on different waste-management policies are examined. The results obtained indicate that inclusion of environmental impacts in the optimization model can change the traditional waste-allocation pattern merely based on the economic-oriented planning approach. The results obtained can help identify desired alternatives for managing MSW, which has advantages in providing compromised schemes under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental impact under uncertainty. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Body Movement in Relation to Type of Information (Person- and Nonperson-Oriented) and Cognitive Style (Field Dependence)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sousa-Poza, Joaquin F.; Rohrberg, Robert

1977-01-01

Proposes that body-focused movement reflects a degree of uncertainty involved in generating information as a function of type of information, psychological differentiation of encoder, and psychological uncertainty of communicative setting. Object-focused movements appear to occur in relation to the type of information and listener availability.…

Object oriented studies into artificial space debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamson, J. M.; Marshall, G.

1988-01-01

A prototype simulation is being developed under contract to the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE), Farnborough, England, to assist in the discrimination of artificial space objects/debris. The methodology undertaken has been to link Object Oriented programming, intelligent knowledge based system (IKBS) techniques and advanced computer technology with numeric analysis to provide a graphical, symbolic simulation. The objective is to provide an additional layer of understanding on top of conventional classification methods. Use is being made of object and rule based knowledge representation, multiple reasoning, truth maintenance and uncertainty. Software tools being used include Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) and SymTactics for knowledge representation. Hooks are being developed within the SymTactics framework to incorporate mathematical models describing orbital motion and fragmentation. Penetration and structural analysis can also be incorporated. SymTactics is an Object Oriented discrete event simulation tool built as a domain specific extension to the KEE environment. The tool provides facilities for building, debugging and monitoring dynamic (military) simulations.

Fusion of light-field and photogrammetric surface form data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims-Waterhouse, Danny; Piano, Samanta; Leach, Richard K.

2017-08-01

Photogrammetry based systems are able to produce 3D reconstructions of an object given a set of images taken from different orientations. In this paper, we implement a light-field camera within a photogrammetry system in order to capture additional depth information, as well as the photogrammetric point cloud. Compared to a traditional camera that only captures the intensity of the incident light, a light-field camera also provides angular information for each pixel. In principle, this additional information allows 2D images to be reconstructed at a given focal plane, and hence a depth map can be computed. Through the fusion of light-field and photogrammetric data, we show that it is possible to improve the measurement uncertainty of a millimetre scale 3D object, compared to that from the individual systems. By imaging a series of test artefacts from various positions, individual point clouds were produced from depth-map information and triangulation of corresponding features between images. Using both measurements, data fusion methods were implemented in order to provide a single point cloud with reduced measurement uncertainty.

The Cultural Orientations of Entrepreneurs and Employees' Job Satisfaction: The Turkish Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yetim, Nalan; Yetim, Unsal

2006-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether cultural orientations which were pervasive and salient in the society of SMEs' entrepreneurs predict employees' job satisfaction. Paternalism, collectivism, individualism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance were assessed as pervasive and salient attributes for Turkish society. Data were…

Revisiting an old concept: the coupled oscillator model for VCD. Part 2: implications of the generalised coupled oscillator mechanism for the VCD robustness concept.

PubMed

Nicu, Valentin Paul

2016-08-03

Using two illustrative examples it is shown that the generalised coupled oscillator (GCO) mechanism implies that the stability of the VCD sign computed for a given normal mode is not reflected by the magnitude of the ratio ζ between the rotational strength and dipole strength of the respective mode, i.e., the VCD robustness criterium proposed by Góbi and Magyarfalvi. The performed VCD GCO analysis brings further insight into the GCO mechanism and also into the VCD robustness concept. First, it shows that the GCO mechanism can be interpreted as a VCD resonance enhancement mechanism, i.e. very large VCD signals can be observed when the interacting molecular fragments are in favourable orientation. Second, it shows that the uncertainties observed in the computed VCD signs are associated to uncertainties in the relative orientation of the coupled oscillator fragments and/or to uncertainties in the predicted nuclear displacement vectors, i.e. not uncertainties in the computed magnetic dipole transition moments as was originally assumed. Since it is able to identify such situations easily, the VCD GCO analysis can be used as a VCD robustness analysis.

Combinations of Earth Orientation Measurements: SPACE94, COMB94, and POLE94

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Richard S.

1996-01-01

A Kalman filter has been used to combine independent measurements of the Earth's orientation taken by the space-geodetic observing techniques of lunar laser ranging, satellite laser ranging, very long baseline interferometry, and the Global Positioning System. Prior to their combination, the data series were adjusted to have the same bias and rate, the stated uncertainties of the measurements were adjusted, and data points considered to be outliers were deleted. The resulting combination, SPACE94, consists of smoothed, interpolated polar motion and UT1-UTC values spanning October 6, 1976, to January 27, 1995, at 1-day intervals. The Kalman filter was then used to combine the space-geodetic series comprising SPACE94 with two different, independent series of Earth orientation measurements taken by the technique of optical astrometry. Prior to their combination with SPACE94, the bias, rate and annual term of the optical astrometric series were corrected, the stated uncertainties of the measurements were adjusted, and data points considered to be outliers were deleted. The adjusted optical astrometric series were then combined with SPACE94 in two steps: (1) the Bureau International de l'Heure (BIH) optical astrometric series was combined with SPACE94 to form COMB94, a combined series of smoothed, interpolated polar motion and UT1-UTC values spanning January 20, 1962, to January 27, 1995, at 5-day intervals, and (2) the International Latitude Service (ILS) optical astrometric series was combined with COMB94 to form POLE94, a combined series of smoothed, interpolated polar motion values spanning January 20, 1900, to January 21, 1995, at 30.4375-day intervals.

High-Frequency Replanning Under Uncertainty Using Parallel Sampling-Based Motion Planning

PubMed Central

Sun, Wen; Patil, Sachin; Alterovitz, Ron

2015-01-01

As sampling-based motion planners become faster, they can be re-executed more frequently by a robot during task execution to react to uncertainty in robot motion, obstacle motion, sensing noise, and uncertainty in the robot’s kinematic model. We investigate and analyze high-frequency replanning (HFR), where, during each period, fast sampling-based motion planners are executed in parallel as the robot simultaneously executes the first action of the best motion plan from the previous period. We consider discrete-time systems with stochastic nonlinear (but linearizable) dynamics and observation models with noise drawn from zero mean Gaussian distributions. The objective is to maximize the probability of success (i.e., avoid collision with obstacles and reach the goal) or to minimize path length subject to a lower bound on the probability of success. We show that, as parallel computation power increases, HFR offers asymptotic optimality for these objectives during each period for goal-oriented problems. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of HFR for holonomic and nonholonomic robots including car-like vehicles and steerable medical needles. PMID:26279645

Rearing Fopius arisanus (Sonan) (Hymenoptera:Braconidae) on Mediterranean fruit fly and its introduction into Senegal against Oriental fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel)(aka B.invadens Drew, Tsuruta, and White) was first reported in Africa in 2003 and has since spread to over 27 countries. It has become a serious tree fruit pest, particularly in mango (Mangifera indica L.). Because of uncertainty as to the exact status...

Orientation of three-component geophones in the San Andreas Fault observatory at depth Pilot Hole, Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oye, V.; Ellsworth, W.L.

2005-01-01

To identify and constrain the target zone for the planned SAFOD Main Hole through the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield, California, a 32-level three-component (3C) geophone string was installed in the Pilot Hole (PH) to monitor and improve the locations of nearby earthquakes. The orientation of the 3C geophones is essential for this purpose, because ray directions from sources may be determined directly from the 3D particle motion for both P and S waves. Due to the complex local velocity structure, rays traced from explosions and earthquakes to the PH show strong ray bending. Observed azimuths are obtained from P-wave polarization analysis, and ray tracing provides theoretical estimates of the incoming wave field. The differences between the theoretical and the observed angles define the calibration azimuths. To investigate the process of orientation with respect to the assumed velocity model, we compare calibration azimuths derived from both a homogeneous and 3D velocity model. Uncertainties in the relative orientation between the geophone levels were also estimated for a cluster of 36 earthquakes that was not used in the orientation process. The comparison between the homogeneous and the 3D velocity model shows that there are only minor changes in these relative orientations. In contrast, the absolute orientations, with respect to global North, were significantly improved by application of the 3D model. The average data residual decreased from 13?? to 7??, supporting the importance of an accurate velocity model. We explain the remaining residuals by methodological uncertainties and noise and with errors in the velocity model.

Lessons Learned During TBCC Design for the NASA-AFRL Joint System Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Christopher A.; Espinosa, A. M.

2013-01-01

NASA and the Air Force Research Laboratory are involved in a Joint System Study (JSS) on Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) vehicles. The JSS will examine the performance, operability and analysis uncertainty of unmanned, fully reusable, TSTO launch vehicle concepts. NASA is providing a vehicle concept using turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) propulsion on the booster stage and an all-rocket orbiter. The variation in vehicle and mission requirements for different potential customers, combined with analysis uncertainties, make it problematic to define optimum vehicle types or concepts, but the study is being used by NASA for tool assessment and development, and to identify technology gaps. Preliminary analyses were performed on the entire TBCC booster concept; then higher-fidelity analyses were performed for particular areas to verify results or reduce analysis uncertainties. Preliminary TBCC system analyses indicated that there would be sufficient thrust margin over its mission portion. The higher fidelity analyses, which included inlet and nozzle performance corrections for significant area mismatches between TBCC propulsion requirements versus the vehicle design, resulted in significant performance penalties from the preliminary results. TBCC system design and vehicle operation assumptions were reviewed to identify items to mitigate these performance penalties. The most promising items were then applied and analyses rerun to update performance predictions. A study overview is given to orient the reader, quickly focusing upon the NASA TBCC booster and low speed propulsion system. Details for the TBCC concept and the analyses performed are described. Finally, a summary of "Lessons Learned" are discussed with suggestions to improve future study efforts.

SU-E-T-391: Assessment and Elimination of the Angular Dependence of the Response of the NanoDot OSLD System in MV Beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehmann, J; University of Sydney, Sydney; RMIT University, Melbourne

2014-06-01

Purpose: Assess the angular dependence of the nanoDot OSLD system in MV X-ray beams at depths and mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Methods: Measurements for 6 MV photons at 3 cm and 10 cm depth and Monte Carlo simulations were performed. Two special holders were designed which allow a nanoDot dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume (5 mm diameter disk). The first holder positions the dosimeter disk perpendicular to the beam (en-face). It then rotates until the disk is parallel with the beam (edge on). This is referred to as Setup 1. Themore » second holder positions the disk parallel to the beam (edge on) for all angles (Setup 2). Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 considered detector and housing in detail based on microCT data. Results: An average drop in response by 1.4±0.7% (measurement) and 2.1±0.3% (Monte Carlo) for the 90° orientation compared to 0° was found for Setup 1. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming 100% active material (Al??O??) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response (within simulation uncertainty of about 1%). For Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. Conclusion: The nanoDot dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence off approximately 2%. Changing the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the detector material edge on reduces the angular dependence to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This makes the dosimeter more attractive for phantom based clinical measurements and audits with multiple coplanar beams. The Australian Clinical Dosimetry Service is a joint initiative between the Australian Department of Health and the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency.« less

Copenhagen's single system premise prevents a unified view of integer and fractional quantum hall effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Evert Jan

1999-05-01

This essay presents conclusive evidence of the impermissibility of Copenhagen's single system interpretation of the Schroedinger process. The latter needs to be viewed as a tool exclusively describing phase and orientation randomized ensembles and is not be used for isolated single systems. Asymptotic closeness of single system and ensemble behavior and the rare nature of true single system manifestations have prevented a definitive identification of this Copenhagen deficiency over the past three quarter century. Quantum uncertainty so becomes a basic trade mark of phase and orientation disordered ensembles. The ensuing void of usable single system tools opens a new inquiry for tools without statistical connotations. Three, in part already known, period integrals here identified as flux, charge and action counters emerge as diffeo-4 invariant tools fully compatible with the demands of the general theory of relativity. The discovery of the quantum Hall effect has been instrumental in forcing a distinction between ensemble disorder as in the normal Hall effect versus ensemble order in the plateau states. Since the order of the latter permits a view of the plateau states as a macro- or meso-scopic single system, the period integral description applies, yielding a straightforward unified description of integer and fractional quantum Hall effects.

Optimized clustering estimators for BAO measurements accounting for significant redshift uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Ashley J.; Banik, Nilanjan; Avila, Santiago; Percival, Will J.; Dodelson, Scott; Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Crocce, Martin; Elvin-Poole, Jack; Giannantonio, Tommaso; Manera, Marc; Sevilla-Noarbe, Ignacio

2017-12-01

We determine an optimized clustering statistic to be used for galaxy samples with significant redshift uncertainty, such as those that rely on photometric redshifts. To do so, we study the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) information content as a function of the orientation of galaxy clustering modes with respect to their angle to the line of sight (LOS). The clustering along the LOS, as observed in a redshift-space with significant redshift uncertainty, has contributions from clustering modes with a range of orientations with respect to the true LOS. For redshift uncertainty σz ≥ 0.02(1 + z), we find that while the BAO information is confined to transverse clustering modes in the true space, it is spread nearly evenly in the observed space. Thus, measuring clustering in terms of the projected separation (regardless of the LOS) is an efficient and nearly lossless compression of the signal for σz ≥ 0.02(1 + z). For reduced redshift uncertainty, a more careful consideration is required. We then use more than 1700 realizations (combining two separate sets) of galaxy simulations mimicking the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) sample to validate our analytic results and optimized analysis procedure. We find that using the correlation function binned in projected separation, we can achieve uncertainties that are within 10 per cent of those predicted by Fisher matrix forecasts. We predict that DES Y1 should achieve a 5 per cent distance measurement using our optimized methods. We expect the results presented here to be important for any future BAO measurements made using photometric redshift data.

Stochastic, goal-oriented rapid impact modeling of uncertainty and environmental impacts in poorly-sampled sites using ex-situ priors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaojun; Li, Yandong; Chang, Ching-Fu; Tan, Benjamin; Chen, Ziyang; Sege, Jon; Wang, Changhong; Rubin, Yoram

2018-01-01

Modeling of uncertainty associated with subsurface dynamics has long been a major research topic. Its significance is widely recognized for real-life applications. Despite the huge effort invested in the area, major obstacles still remain on the way from theory and applications. Particularly problematic here is the confusion between modeling uncertainty and modeling spatial variability, which translates into a (mis)conception, in fact an inconsistency, in that it suggests that modeling of uncertainty and modeling of spatial variability are equivalent, and as such, requiring a lot of data. This paper investigates this challenge against the backdrop of a 7 km, deep underground tunnel in China, where environmental impacts are of major concern. We approach the data challenge by pursuing a new concept for Rapid Impact Modeling (RIM), which bypasses altogether the need to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters, focusing instead on detailed stochastic modeling of impacts, conditional to all information available, including prior, ex-situ information and in-situ measurements as well. A foundational element of RIM is the construction of informative priors for target parameters using ex-situ data, relying on ensembles of well-documented sites, pre-screened for geological and hydrological similarity to the target site. The ensembles are built around two sets of similarity criteria: a physically-based set of criteria and an additional set covering epistemic criteria. In another variation to common Bayesian practice, we update the priors to obtain conditional distributions of the target (environmental impact) dependent variables and not the hydrological variables. This recognizes that goal-oriented site characterization is in many cases more useful in applications compared to parameter-oriented characterization.

Informing Drought Preparedness and Response with the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Ghatak, D.; Matin, M. A.; Qamer, F. M.; Adhikary, B.; Bajracharya, B.; Nelson, J.; Pulla, S. T.; Ellenburg, W. L.

2017-12-01

Decision-relevant drought monitoring in South Asia is a challenge from both a scientific and an institutional perspective. Scientifically, climatic diversity, inconsistent in situ monitoring, complex hydrology, and incomplete knowledge of atmospheric processes mean that monitoring and prediction are fraught with uncertainty. Institutionally, drought monitoring efforts need to align with the information needs and decision-making processes of relevant agencies at national and subnational levels. Here we present first results from an emerging operational drought monitoring and forecast system developed and supported by the NASA SERVIR Hindu-Kush Himalaya hub. The system has been designed in consultation with end users from multiple sectors in South Asian countries to maximize decision-relevant information content in the monitoring and forecast products. Monitoring of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought is accomplished using the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System, a platform that supports multiple land surface models and meteorological forcing datasets to characterize uncertainty, and subseasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasts are produced by driving South Asia LDAS with downscaled meteorological fields drawn from an ensemble of global dynamically-based forecast systems. Results are disseminated to end users through a Tethys online visualization platform and custom communications that provide user oriented, easily accessible, timely, and decision-relevant scientific information.

Inversion of calcite twin data for paleostress orientations and magnitudes: A new technique tested and calibrated on numerically-generated and natural data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parlangeau, Camille; Lacombe, Olivier; Schueller, Sylvie; Daniel, Jean-Marc

2018-01-01

The inversion of calcite twin data is a powerful tool to reconstruct paleostresses sustained by carbonate rocks during their geological history. Following Etchecopar's (1984) pioneering work, this study presents a new technique for the inversion of calcite twin data that reconstructs the 5 parameters of the deviatoric stress tensors from both monophase and polyphase twin datasets. The uncertainties in the parameters of the stress tensors reconstructed by this new technique are evaluated on numerically-generated datasets. The technique not only reliably defines the 5 parameters of the deviatoric stress tensor, but also reliably separates very close superimposed stress tensors (30° of difference in maximum principal stress orientation or switch between σ3 and σ2 axes). The technique is further shown to be robust to sampling bias and to slight variability in the critical resolved shear stress. Due to our still incomplete knowledge of the evolution of the critical resolved shear stress with grain size, our results show that it is recommended to analyze twin data subsets of homogeneous grain size to minimize possible errors, mainly those concerning differential stress values. The methodological uncertainty in principal stress orientations is about ± 10°; it is about ± 0.1 for the stress ratio. For differential stresses, the uncertainty is lower than ± 30%. Applying the technique to vein samples within Mesozoic limestones from the Monte Nero anticline (northern Apennines, Italy) demonstrates its ability to reliably detect and separate tectonically significant paleostress orientations and magnitudes from naturally deformed polyphase samples, hence to fingerprint the regional paleostresses of interest in tectonic studies.

Adaptive control of space-based robot manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Michael W.; Wee, Liang-Boon

1991-01-01

A control method is presented that achieves globally stable trajectory tracking in the presence of uncertainties in the inertial parameters of the system. The 15-DOF system dynamics are divided into two components: a 9-DOF invertible portion and 6-DOF noninvertible portion. A controller is then designed to achieve trajectory tracking of the invertible portion of the system, which consists of the manipulator-joint positions and the orientation of the base. The motion of the noninvertible portion is bounded but otherwise unspecified. This portion of the system consists of the position of the robot's base and the position of the reaction wheels. A simulation is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controller. A quadratic polynomial is used to generate the desired trajectory to illustrate the trajectory-tracking capability of the controller.

Cardinal rules: Visual orientation perception reflects knowledge of environmental statistics

PubMed Central

Girshick, Ahna R.; Landy, Michael S.; Simoncelli, Eero P.

2011-01-01

Humans are remarkably good at performing visual tasks, but experimental measurements reveal substantial biases in the perception of basic visual attributes. An appealing hypothesis is that these biases arise through a process of statistical inference, in which information from noisy measurements is fused with a probabilistic model of the environment. But such inference is optimal only if the observer’s internal model matches the environment. Here, we provide evidence that this is the case. We measured performance in an orientation-estimation task, demonstrating the well-known fact that orientation judgements are more accurate at cardinal (horizontal and vertical) orientations, along with a new observation that judgements made under conditions of uncertainty are strongly biased toward cardinal orientations. We estimate observers’ internal models for orientation and find that they match the local orientation distribution measured in photographs. We also show how a neural population could embed probabilistic information responsible for such biases. PMID:21642976

DAKOTA Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Eldred, Michael S.

2010-02-24

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes (computational models) and iterative analysis methods. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and analysis of computational models on high performance computers.A user provides a set of DAKOTA commands in an input file and launches DAKOTA. DAKOTA invokes instances of the computational models, collects their results, and performs systems analyses. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-basedmore » methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, polynomial chaos, stochastic collocation, and epistemic methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as hybrid optimization, surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. Services for parallel computing, simulation interfacing, approximation modeling, fault tolerance, restart, and graphics are also included.« less

A demonstration of a transportable radio interferometric surveying system with 3-cm accuracy on a 307-m base line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ong, K. M.; Macdoran, P. F.; Thomas, J. B.; Fliegel, H. F.; Skjerve, L. J.; Spitzmesser, D. J.; Batelaan, P. D.; Paine, S. R.; Newsted, M. G.

1976-01-01

A precision geodetic measurement system (Aries, for Astronomical Radio Interferometric Earth Surveying) based on the technique of very long base line interferometry has been designed and implemented through the use of a 9-m transportable antenna and the NASA 64-m antenna of the Deep Space Communications Complex at Goldstone, California. A series of experiments designed to demonstrate the inherent accuracy of a transportable interferometer was performed on a 307-m base line during the period from December 1973 to June 1974. This short base line was chosen in order to obtain a comparison with a conventional survey with a few-centimeter accuracy and to minimize Aries errors due to transmission media effects, source locations, and earth orientation parameters. The base-line vector derived from a weighted average of the measurements, representing approximately 24 h of data, possessed a formal uncertainty of about 3 cm in all components. This average interferometry base-line vector was in good agreement with the conventional survey vector within the statistical range allowed by the combined uncertainties (3-4 cm) of the two techniques.

Development of a software framework for data assimilation and its applications for streamflow forecasting in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Yorozu, K.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Data assimilation methods have received increased attention to accomplish uncertainty assessment and enhancement of forecasting capability in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modeling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for sequential data assimilation, so called MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modeling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. Sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models based on MPI-OHyMoS considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for short-term streamflow forecasting of several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and remotely-sensed rainfall data such as X-band or C-band radar is estimated and mitigated in the sequential data assimilation.

High-precision radiometric tracking for planetary approach and encounter in the inner solar system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, C. S.; Thurman, S. W.; Davidson, J. M.; Finger, M. H.; Folkner, W. M.

1989-01-01

The benefits of improved radiometric tracking data have been studied for planetary approach within the inner Solar System using the Mars Rover Sample Return trajectory as a model. It was found that the benefit of improved data to approach and encounter navigation was highly dependent on the a priori uncertainties assumed for several non-estimated parameters, including those for frame-tie, Earth orientation, troposphere delay, and station locations. With these errors at their current levels, navigational performance was found to be insensitive to enhancements in data accuracy. However, when expected improvements in these errors are modeled, performance with current-accuracy data significantly improves, with substantial further improvements possible with enhancements in data accuracy.

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.

PubMed

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E; Armour, Kyle C; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Helene; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo-Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.

Self-Stabilizing and Efficient Robust Uncertainty Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

Group decision making in honey bee swarms. American Scientist. 94:220-229. 71 Frisch, Karl von. (1967) The Dance Language and Orientation of... Bees . Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. 18 Thom et al. (21 August 2007) The Scent of the Waggle Dance . PLoS Biology...Orientation of Bees . Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. 02 Frisch, Karl von. (1967) The Dance Language and

FERRET data analysis code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmittroth, F.

1979-09-01

A documentation of the FERRET data analysis code is given. The code provides a way to combine related measurements and calculations in a consistent evaluation. Basically a very general least-squares code, it is oriented towards problems frequently encountered in nuclear data and reactor physics. A strong emphasis is on the proper treatment of uncertainties and correlations and in providing quantitative uncertainty estimates. Documentation includes a review of the method, structure of the code, input formats, and examples.

Angular dependence of the response of the nanoDot OSLD system for measurements at depth in clinical megavoltage beams.

PubMed

Lehmann, Joerg; Dunn, Leon; Lye, Jessica E; Kenny, John W; Alves, Andrew D C; Cole, Andrew; Asena, Andre; Kron, Tomas; Williams, Ivan M

2014-06-01

The purpose of this investigation was to assess the angular dependence of a commercial optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) dosimetry system in MV x-ray beams at depths beyond d(max) and to find ways to mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Two special holders were designed which allow a dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume. The dosimeter's sensitive volume is a disk, 5 mm in diameter and 0.2 mm thick. The first holder rotates the disk in the traditional way. It positions the disk perpendicular to the beam (gantry pointing to the floor) in the initial position (0°). When the holder is rotated the angle of the disk towards the beam increases until the disk is parallel with the beam ("edge on," 90°). This is referred to as Setup 1. The second holder offers a new, alternative measurement position. It positions the disk parallel to the beam for all angles while rotating around its center (Setup 2). Measurements with five to ten dosimeters per point were carried out for 6 MV at 3 and 10 cm depth. Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 were performed to simulate the response of the active detector material for several angles. Detector and housing were simulated in detail based on microCT data and communications with the manufacturer. Various material compositions and an all-water geometry were considered. For the traditional Setup 1 the response of the OSLD dropped on average by 1.4% ± 0.7% (measurement) and 2.1% ± 0.3% (Monte Carlo simulation) for the 90° orientation compared to 0°. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming the layer to completely consist of the active material (Al2O3) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response within the simulation uncertainty of about 1%. For the new Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. The dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence of approximately 2% which needs to be considered for measurements involving other than normal incident beams angles. This applies in particular to clinical in vivo measurements where the orientation of the dosimeter is dictated by clinical circumstances and cannot be optimized as otherwise suggested here. When measuring in a phantom, the proposed new setup should be considered. It changes the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the disk shaped detector material from the thin side and thereby reduces the angular dependence of the response to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This improvement makes the dosimeter more attractive for clinical measurements with multiple coplanar beams in phantoms, as the overall measurement uncertainty is reduced. Similarly, phantom based postal audits can transition from the traditional TLD to the more accurate and convenient OSLD.

An algorithm for automatic target recognition using passive radar and an EKF for estimating aircraft orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehrman, Lisa M.

2005-07-01

Rather than emitting pulses, passive radar systems rely on "illuminators of opportunity," such as TV and FM radio, to illuminate potential targets. These systems are attractive since they allow receivers to operate without emitting energy, rendering them covert. Until recently, most of the research regarding passive radar has focused on detecting and tracking targets. This dissertation focuses on extending the capabilities of passive radar systems to include automatic target recognition. The target recognition algorithm described in this dissertation uses the radar cross section (RCS) of potential targets, collected over a short period of time, as the key information for target recognition. To make the simulated RCS as accurate as possible, the received signal model accounts for aircraft position and orientation, propagation losses, and antenna gain patterns. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) estimates the target's orientation (and uncertainty in the estimate) from velocity measurements obtained from the passive radar tracker. Coupling the aircraft orientation and state with the known antenna locations permits computation of the incident and observed azimuth and elevation angles. The Fast Illinois Solver Code (FISC) simulates the RCS of potential target classes as a function of these angles. Thus, the approximated incident and observed angles allow the appropriate RCS to be extracted from a database of FISC results. Using this process, the RCS of each aircraft in the target class is simulated as though each is executing the same maneuver as the target detected by the system. Two additional scaling processes are required to transform the RCS into a power profile (magnitude only) simulating the signal in the receiver. First, the RCS is scaled by the Advanced Refractive Effects Prediction System (AREPS) code to account for propagation losses that occur as functions of altitude and range. Then, the Numerical Electromagnetic Code (NEC2) computes the antenna gain pattern, further scaling the RCS. A Rician likelihood model compares the scaled RCS of the illuminated aircraft with those of the potential targets. To improve the robustness of the result, the algorithm jointly optimizes over feasible orientation profiles and target types via dynamic programming.

78 FR 59662 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-27

... applications and assessment of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as... development and simulation supports interagency interests in risk assessment, uncertainty analyses, management...

Object-oriented simulation model of a parabolic trough solar collector: Static and dynamic validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana

2017-06-01

A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).

A method for determining the actual rate of orientation switching of DNA self-assembled monolayers using optical and electrochemical frequency response analysis.

PubMed

Casanova-Moreno, J; Bizzotto, D

2015-02-17

Electrostatic control of the orientation of fluorophore-labeled DNA strands immobilized on an electrode surface has been shown to be an effective bioanalytical tool. Modulation techniques and later time-resolved measurements were used to evaluate the kinetics of the switching between lying and standing DNA conformations. These measurements, however, are the result of a convolution between the DNA "switching" response time and the other frequency limited responses in the measurement. In this work, a method for analyzing the response of a potential driven DNA sensor is presented by calculating the potential effectively dropped across the electrode interface (using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy) as opposed to the potential applied to the electrochemical cell. This effectively deconvolutes the effect of the charging time on the observed frequency response. The corrected response shows that DNA is able to switch conformation faster than previously reported using modulation techniques. This approach will ensure accurate measurements independent of the electrochemical system, removing the uncertainty in the analysis of the switching response, enabling comparison between samples and measurement systems.

Assessing the Value of Information of Geophysical Data For Groundwater Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trainor, W. J.; Caers, J. K.; Mukerji, T.; Auken, E.; Knight, R. J.

2008-12-01

Effective groundwater management requires hydrogeologic models informed by various data sources. The long-term goal of our research is to develop methodologies that quantify the value of information (VOI) of geophysical data for water managers. We present an initial sensitivity study on assessing the reliability of airborne electro-magnetic (EM) data for detecting channel orientation. The reliability results are used to calculate VOI regarding decisions of artificial recharge to mitigate seawater intrusion. To demonstrate how a hydrogeologic problem can be framed in decision analysis terms, a hypothetical example is built, where water managers are considering artificial recharge to remediate seawater intrusion. Is the cost of recharge justified given the large uncertainty of subsurface heterogeneity that may interfere in a successful recharge? Thus, the decision is should recharge be performed, and if yes, where should recharge wells be located? This decision is difficult because of the large uncertainty of the aquifer heterogeneity that influences flow. The expected value of all possible outcomes to the decision without gathering additional EM information is the prior value VPRIOR. The value of information (VOI) is calculated as the expected gain in value after including the relevant new information, or the difference between the value after a free experiment (VFE) and the value prior (VPRIOR): VOI = VFE - VPRIOR Airborne EM has been used to detect confining clay layers and flow barriers. However, geophysical information rarely identifies the subsurface perfectly. Many challenges impact data quality and the resulting models (interpretation uncertainty). To evaluate how well airborne EM data detect the orientation of subsurface channel systems, 125 alternative binary, fluvial lithology models are generated, each categorized into one of three subsurface scenarios: northwest, southwest and mixed channel orientation. Using rock property relations, the lithology models are converted into electrical resistivity models for EM forward modeling, to generate time-domain EM data. Noise is added to the late times of the EM data to better represent typical airborne acquisition. Inversions are performed to obtain 125 inverted resistivity images. From the images, we calculate the angle of maximum spatial correlation at every cell, and compare it with the truth - the original lithology model. These synthetic models serve as a proxy to estimate misclassification probabilities of channel orientation from actual EM data. The misclassification probabilities are then used in the VOI calculations. Results are presented demonstrating how the reliability measure and the pumping schedule can impact VOI. Lastly, reliability and VOI are calculated and compared for land-based EM data, which has different spatial sampling and resolution than air-borne data.

A control-oriented lithium-ion battery pack model for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle cycle-life studies and system design with consideration of health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordoba-Arenas, Andrea; Onori, Simona; Rizzoni, Giorgio

2015-04-01

A crucial step towards the large-scale introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the market is to reduce the cost of its battery systems. Currently, battery cycle- and calendar-life represents one of the greatest uncertainties in the total life-cycle cost of battery systems. The field of battery aging modeling and prognosis has seen progress with respect to model-based and data-driven approaches to describe the aging of battery cells. However, in real world applications cells are interconnected and aging propagates. The propagation of aging from one cell to others exhibits itself in a reduced battery system life. This paper proposes a control-oriented battery pack model that describes the propagation of aging and its effect on the life span of battery systems. The modeling approach is such that it is able to predict pack aging, thermal, and electrical dynamics under actual PHEV operation, and includes consideration of random variability of the cells, electrical topology and thermal management. The modeling approach is based on the interaction between dynamic system models of the electrical and thermal dynamics, and dynamic models of cell aging. The system-level state-of-health (SOH) is assessed based on knowledge of individual cells SOH, pack electrical topology and voltage equalization approach.

Understanding climate policy data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

2012-08-01

NASA Carbon Monitoring System: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty; Washington, D. C, 11 January 2012 Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices, and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes derived from observations of Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere used in state-of-the-art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on reductions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process.

A systems approach to bone pathophysiology.

PubMed

Weiss, Aaron J; Lipshtat, Azi; Mechanick, Jeffrey I

2010-11-01

With evolving interest in multiscalar biological systems one could assume that reductionist approaches may not fully describe biological complexity. Instead, tools such as mathematical modeling, network analysis, and other multiplexed clinical- and research-oriented tests enable rapid analyses of high-throughput data parsed at the genomic, proteomic, metabolomic, and physiomic levels. A physiomic-level approach allows for recursive horizontal and vertical integration of subsystem coupling across and within spatiotemporal scales. Additionally, this methodology recognizes previously ignored subsystems and the strong, nonintuitively obvious and indirect connections among physiological events that potentially account for the uncertainties in medicine. In this review, we flip the reductionist research paradigm and review the concept of systems biology and its applications to bone pathophysiology. Specifically, a bone-centric physiome model is presented that incorporates systemic-level processes with their respective therapeutic implications. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

Optimized Clustering Estimators for BAO Measurements Accounting for Significant Redshift Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, Ashley J.; Banik, Nilanjan; Avila, Santiago

2017-05-15

We determine an optimized clustering statistic to be used for galaxy samples with significant redshift uncertainty, such as those that rely on photometric redshifts. To do so, we study the BAO information content as a function of the orientation of galaxy clustering modes with respect to their angle to the line-of-sight (LOS). The clustering along the LOS, as observed in a redshift-space with significant redshift uncertainty, has contributions from clustering modes with a range of orientations with respect to the true LOS. For redshift uncertaintymore » $$\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$$ we find that while the BAO information is confined to transverse clustering modes in the true space, it is spread nearly evenly in the observed space. Thus, measuring clustering in terms of the projected separation (regardless of the LOS) is an efficient and nearly lossless compression of the signal for $$\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$$. For reduced redshift uncertainty, a more careful consideration is required. We then use more than 1700 realizations of galaxy simulations mimicking the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 sample to validate our analytic results and optimized analysis procedure. We find that using the correlation function binned in projected separation, we can achieve uncertainties that are within 10 per cent of of those predicted by Fisher matrix forecasts. We predict that DES Y1 should achieve a 5 per cent distance measurement using our optimized methods. We expect the results presented here to be important for any future BAO measurements made using photometric redshift data.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N

Offsetting turbines' yaw orientations from incoming wind is a powerful tool that may be leveraged to reduce undesirable wake effects on downstream turbines. First, we examine a simple two-turbine case to gain intuition as to how inflow direction uncertainty affects the optimal solution. The turbines are modeled with unidirectional inflow such that one turbine directly wakes the other, using ten rotor diameter spacing. We perform optimization under uncertainty (OUU) via a parameter sweep of the front turbine. The OUU solution generally prefers less steering. We then do this optimization for a 60-turbine wind farm with unidirectional inflow, varying the degreemore » of inflow uncertainty and approaching this OUU problem by nesting a polynomial chaos expansion uncertainty quantification routine within an outer optimization. We examined how different levels of uncertainty in the inflow direction effect the ratio of the expected values of deterministic and OUU solutions for steering strategies in the large wind farm, assuming the directional uncertainty used to reach said OUU solution (this ratio is defined as the value of the stochastic solution or VSS).« less

Using spatial uncertainty to manipulate the size of the attention focus.

PubMed

Huang, Dan; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Xin; Chen, Yao

2016-09-01

Preferentially processing behaviorally relevant information is vital for primate survival. In visuospatial attention studies, manipulating the spatial extent of attention focus is an important question. Although many studies have claimed to successfully adjust attention field size by either varying the uncertainty about the target location (spatial uncertainty) or adjusting the size of the cue orienting the attention focus, no systematic studies have assessed and compared the effectiveness of these methods. We used a multiple cue paradigm with 2.5° and 7.5° rings centered around a target position to measure the cue size effect, while the spatial uncertainty levels were manipulated by changing the number of cueing positions. We found that spatial uncertainty had a significant impact on reaction time during target detection, while the cue size effect was less robust. We also carefully varied the spatial scope of potential target locations within a small or large region and found that this amount of variation in spatial uncertainty can also significantly influence target detection speed. Our results indicate that adjusting spatial uncertainty is more effective than varying cue size when manipulating attention field size.

Uncertainty quantification of fiber orientation distribution measurements for long-fiber-reinforced thermoplastic composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, Bhisham N.; Naragani, Diwakar; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

Here, we present a detailed methodology for experimental measurement of fiber orientation distribution in injection-molded discontinuous fiber composites using the method of ellipses on two-dimensional cross sections. Best practices to avoid biases occurring during surface preparation and optical imaging of carbon-fiber-reinforced thermoplastics are discussed. We developed a marker-based watershed transform routine for efficient image segmentation and the separation of touching fiber ellipses. The sensitivity of the averaged orientation tensor to the image sample size is studied for the case of long-fiber thermoplastics. A Mori–Tanaka implementation of the Eshelby model is then employed to quantify the sensitivity of elastic stiffness predictionsmore » to biases in the fiber orientation distribution measurements.« less

Uncertainty quantification of fiber orientation distribution measurements for long-fiber-reinforced thermoplastic composites

DOE PAGES

Sharma, Bhisham N.; Naragani, Diwakar; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; ...

2017-09-28

Here, we present a detailed methodology for experimental measurement of fiber orientation distribution in injection-molded discontinuous fiber composites using the method of ellipses on two-dimensional cross sections. Best practices to avoid biases occurring during surface preparation and optical imaging of carbon-fiber-reinforced thermoplastics are discussed. We developed a marker-based watershed transform routine for efficient image segmentation and the separation of touching fiber ellipses. The sensitivity of the averaged orientation tensor to the image sample size is studied for the case of long-fiber thermoplastics. A Mori–Tanaka implementation of the Eshelby model is then employed to quantify the sensitivity of elastic stiffness predictionsmore » to biases in the fiber orientation distribution measurements.« less

Visualizing Uncertainty of Point Phenomena by Redesigned Error Ellipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Christian E.

2018-05-01

Visualizing uncertainty remains one of the great challenges in modern cartography. There is no overarching strategy to display the nature of uncertainty, as an effective and efficient visualization depends, besides on the spatial data feature type, heavily on the type of uncertainty. This work presents a design strategy to visualize uncertainty con-nected to point features. The error ellipse, well-known from mathematical statistics, is adapted to display the uncer-tainty of point information originating from spatial generalization. Modified designs of the error ellipse show the po-tential of quantitative and qualitative symbolization and simultaneous point based uncertainty symbolization. The user can intuitively depict the centers of gravity, the major orientation of the point arrays as well as estimate the ex-tents and possible spatial distributions of multiple point phenomena. The error ellipse represents uncertainty in an intuitive way, particularly suitable for laymen. Furthermore it is shown how applicable an adapted design of the er-ror ellipse is to display the uncertainty of point features originating from incomplete data. The suitability of the error ellipse to display the uncertainty of point information is demonstrated within two showcases: (1) the analysis of formations of association football players, and (2) uncertain positioning of events on maps for the media.

Controlling the non-linear intracavity dynamics of large He-Ne laser gyroscopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuccato, D.; Beghi, A.; Belfi, J.; Beverini, N.; Ortolan, A.; Di Virgilio, A.

2014-02-01

A model based on Lamb's theory of gas lasers is applied to a He-Ne ring laser (RL) gyroscope to estimate and remove the laser dynamics contribution from the rotation measurements. The intensities of the counter-propagating laser beams exiting one cavity mirror are continuously observed together with a monitor of the laser population inversion. These observables, once properly calibrated with a dedicated procedure, allow us to estimate cold cavity and active medium parameters driving the main part of the non-linearities of the system. The quantitative estimation of intrinsic non-reciprocal effects due to cavity and active medium non-linear coupling plays a key role in testing fundamental symmetries of space-time with RLs. The parameter identification and noise subtraction procedure has been verified by means of a Monte Carlo study of the system, and experimentally tested on the G-PISA RL oriented with the normal to the ring plane almost parallel to the Earth's rotation axis. In this configuration the Earth's rotation rate provides the maximum Sagnac effect while the contribution of the orientation error is reduced to a minimum. After the subtraction of laser dynamics by a Kalman filter, the relative systematic errors of G-PISA reduce from 50 to 5 parts in 103 and can be attributed to the residual uncertainties on geometrical scale factor and orientation of the ring.

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE PAGES

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.; ...

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Uncertainty quantification of resonant ultrasound spectroscopy for material property and single crystal orientation estimation on a complex part

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldrin, John C.; Mayes, Alexander; Jauriqui, Leanne; Biedermann, Eric; Heffernan, Julieanne; Livings, Richard; Goodlet, Brent; Mazdiyasni, Siamack

2018-04-01

A case study is presented evaluating uncertainty in Resonance Ultrasound Spectroscopy (RUS) inversion for a single crystal (SX) Ni-based superalloy Mar-M247 cylindrical dog-bone specimens. A number of surrogate models were developed with FEM model solutions, using different sampling schemes (regular grid, Monte Carlo sampling, Latin Hyper-cube sampling) and model approaches, N-dimensional cubic spline interpolation and Kriging. Repeated studies were used to quantify the well-posedness of the inversion problem, and the uncertainty was assessed in material property and crystallographic orientation estimates given typical geometric dimension variability in aerospace components. Surrogate model quality was found to be an important factor in inversion results when the model more closely represents the test data. One important discovery was when the model matches well with test data, a Kriging surrogate model using un-sorted Latin Hypercube sampled data performed as well as the best results from an N-dimensional interpolation model using sorted data. However, both surrogate model quality and mode sorting were found to be less critical when inverting properties from either experimental data or simulated test cases with uncontrolled geometric variation.

One-shot exogenous interventions increase subsequent coordination in Denmark, Spain and Ghana

PubMed Central

Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2017-01-01

Everyday, we are bombarded with periodic, exogenous appeals and instructions on how to behave. How do these appeals and instructions affect subsequent coordination? Using experimental methods, we investigate how a one-time exogenous instruction affects subsequent coordination among individuals in a lab. Participants play a minimum effort game repeated 5 times under fixed matching with a one-time behavioral instruction in either the first or second round. Since coordination behavior may vary across countries, we run experiments in Denmark, Spain and Ghana, and map cross-country rankings in coordination with known national measures of fractualization, uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation. Our results show that exogenous interventions increase subsequent coordination, with earlier interventions yielding better coordination than later interventions. We also find that cross-country rankings in coordination map with published national measures of fractualization, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation. PMID:29145411

One-shot exogenous interventions increase subsequent coordination in Denmark, Spain and Ghana.

PubMed

Abatayo, Anna Lou; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2017-01-01

Everyday, we are bombarded with periodic, exogenous appeals and instructions on how to behave. How do these appeals and instructions affect subsequent coordination? Using experimental methods, we investigate how a one-time exogenous instruction affects subsequent coordination among individuals in a lab. Participants play a minimum effort game repeated 5 times under fixed matching with a one-time behavioral instruction in either the first or second round. Since coordination behavior may vary across countries, we run experiments in Denmark, Spain and Ghana, and map cross-country rankings in coordination with known national measures of fractualization, uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation. Our results show that exogenous interventions increase subsequent coordination, with earlier interventions yielding better coordination than later interventions. We also find that cross-country rankings in coordination map with published national measures of fractualization, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation.

Adaptive management: Chapter 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2015-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

Adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2015-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

Dynamical Reference Frame: Current Relevance and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Standish, E. M., Jr

2000-01-01

Planetary and lunar ephemerides are no longer used for the determination of inertial space. Instead, the new fundamental reference frame, the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF), is inherently less susceptible to extraneous, non-inertial rotations than a dynamical reference frame determined by the ephemerides would be. Consequently, the ephemerides are now adjusted onto the ICRF, and they are fit to two modern, accurate observational data types: ranging (radar, lunar laser, spacecraft) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) (of spacecraft near planets). The uncertainties remaining in the inner planet ephemerides are on the order of 1 kilometer, both in relative positions between the bodies and in the orientation of the inner system as a whole. The predictive capabilities of the inner planet ephemerides are limited by the uncertainties in the masses of many asteroids. For this reason, future improvements to the ephemerides must await determinations of many asteroid masses. Until then, it will be necessary to constantly update the ephemerides with a continuous supply of observational data.

How Uncertain is Uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vámos, Tibor

The gist of the paper is the fundamental uncertain nature of all kinds of uncertainties and consequently a critical epistemic review of historical and recent approaches, computational methods, algorithms. The review follows the development of the notion from the beginnings of thinking, via the Aristotelian and Skeptic view, the medieval nominalism and the influential pioneering metaphors of ancient India and Persia to the birth of modern mathematical disciplinary reasoning. Discussing the models of uncertainty, e.g. the statistical, other physical and psychological background we reach a pragmatic model related estimation perspective, a balanced application orientation for different problem areas. Data mining, game theories and recent advances in approximation algorithms are discussed in this spirit of modest reasoning.

Measurement of the alignment of the surfaces and the edges of aspheric lenses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beutler, Andreas

2016-09-01

A single aspheric or freeform lens contains the elements front and backside surface, edges and maybe other reference surfaces or structures. In this paper is demonstrated how a high precision form tester is capable of measuring these elements utilizing an optical and a tactile probe system. The measurements can be used to determine the orientation or alignment of the different surfaces and structures. Different measuring examples are presented and the influence of the measuring uncertainty from the instrument and the measuring strategy are shown. This information may be useful for tolerancing of lenses and an optimization of the production process.

Diffusion of cancer education into schools.

PubMed

Anderson, D M; Portnoy, B

1989-05-01

Though implementing health education in schools has numerous advantages, many barriers impede adoption of effective curricula. Diffusion theory provides a framework for understanding why some school systems do not implement comprehensive, sequential, and behaviorally oriented curricula. Reasons for failure to provide optimal health education include competition for time, unawareness of resources and research results, political considerations, long-range planning difficulties, lack of teacher training, lack of testing, other academic priorities, uncertainty about responsibility for health education, and costs. Health educators can overcome such difficulties by working within existing curricular agendas, political interests, and budgets, and by organizing interventions through school health councils, while recognizing local programs, conditions, and resources.

A terrestrial lidar-based workflow for determining three-dimensional slip vectors and associated uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Peter O.; Cowgill, Eric; Kreylos, Oliver; Gold, Ryan D.

2012-01-01

Three-dimensional (3D) slip vectors recorded by displaced landforms are difficult to constrain across complex fault zones, and the uncertainties associated with such measurements become increasingly challenging to assess as landforms degrade over time. We approach this problem from a remote sensing perspective by using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and 3D structural analysis. We have developed an integrated TLS data collection and point-based analysis workflow that incorporates accurate assessments of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties using experimental surveys, Monte Carlo simulations, and iterative site reconstructions. Our scanning workflow and equipment requirements are optimized for single-operator surveying, and our data analysis process is largely completed using new point-based computing tools in an immersive 3D virtual reality environment. In a case study, we measured slip vector orientations at two sites along the rupture trace of the 1954 Dixie Valley earthquake (central Nevada, United States), yielding measurements that are the first direct constraints on the 3D slip vector for this event. These observations are consistent with a previous approximation of net extension direction for this event. We find that errors introduced by variables in our survey method result in <2.5 cm of variability in components of displacement, and are eclipsed by the 10–60 cm epistemic errors introduced by reconstructing the field sites to their pre-erosion geometries. Although the higher resolution TLS data sets enabled visualization and data interactivity critical for reconstructing the 3D slip vector and for assessing uncertainties, dense topographic constraints alone were not sufficient to significantly narrow the wide (<26°) range of allowable slip vector orientations that resulted from accounting for epistemic uncertainties.

Through the Lens of Cultural Awareness: A Primer for US Armed Forces Deploying to Arab and Middle Eastern Countries

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Willingness to Compromise •Risk Avoidance •Time to Decision •Etc. The “What” ral Variation Behaviors •Context Sensitivity Values •Individualism vs ...Collectivism •Power Distance •Formality vs . informality •Uncertainty Avoidance •Relationship vs . Deal Focus •Long-term vs . Short term orientation •Time...Orientation Cognition •Reasoning Styles Cultural Variations Behaviors •Context Sensitivity Values •Individualism vs . Collectivism •Power Distance •Formality

Synthesis of a combined system for precise stabilization of the Spektr-UF observatory: II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bychkov, I. V.; Voronov, V. A.; Druzhinin, E. I.; Kozlov, R. I.; Ul'yanov, S. A.; Belyaev, B. B.; Telepnev, P. P.; Ul'yashin, A. I.

2014-03-01

The paper presents the second part of the results of search studies for the development of a combined system of high-precision stabilization of the optical telescope for the designed Spectr-UF international observatory [1]. A new modification of the strict method of the synthesis of nonlinear discrete-continuous stabilization systems with uncertainties is described, which is based on the minimization of the guaranteed accuracy estimate calculated using vector Lyapunov functions. Using this method, the synthesis of the feedback parameters in the mode of precise inertial stabilization of the optical telescope axis is performed taking the design nonrigidity, quantization of signals over time and level, and errors of orientation meters, as well as the errors and limitation of control moments of executive engine-flywheels into account. The results of numerical experiments that demonstrate the quality of the synthesized system are presented.

Is Active Tectonics on Madagascar Consistent with Somalian Plate Kinematics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamps, D. S.; Kreemer, C.; Rajaonarison, T. A.

2017-12-01

The East African Rift System (EARS) actively breaks apart the Nubian and Somalian tectonic plates. Madagascar finds itself at the easternmost boundary of the EARS, between the Rovuma block, Lwandle plate, and the Somalian plate. Earthquake focal mechanisms and N-S oriented fault structures on the continental island suggest that Madagascar is experiencing east-west oriented extension. However, some previous plate kinematic studies indicate minor compressional strains across Madagascar. This inconsistency may be due to uncertainties in Somalian plate rotation. Past estimates of the rotation of the Somalian plate suffered from a poor coverage of GPS stations, but some important new stations are now available for a re-evaluation. In this work, we revise the kinematics of the Somalian plate. We first calculate a new GPS velocity solution and perform block kinematic modeling to evaluate the Somalian plate rotation. We then estimate new Somalia-Rovuma and Somalia-Lwandle relative motions across Madagascar and evaluate whether they are consistent with GPS measurements made on the island itself, as well as with other kinematic indicators.

A Greenhouse-Gas Information System: Monitoring and Validating Emissions Reporting and Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jonietz, Karl K.; Dimotakis, Paul E.; Rotman, Douglas A.

2011-09-26

This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a system that meets specifications derived from imposed requirements; the need for rigorous calibration, verification, and validation (CV&V) standards, processes, and records for all measurement and modeling/data-inversion data; the need to develop and adopt an uncertainty-quantification (UQ) regimen for all measurement and modeling data; andmore » the requirement that GHGIS products can be subjected to third-party questioning and scientific scrutiny. This report examines and assesses presently available capabilities that could contribute to a future GHGIS. These capabilities include sensors and measurement technologies; data analysis and data uncertainty quantification (UQ) practices and methods; and model-based data-inversion practices, methods, and their associated UQ. The report further examines the need for traceable calibration, verification, and validation processes and attached metadata; differences between present science-/research-oriented needs and those that would be required for an operational GHGIS; the development, operation, and maintenance of a GHGIS missions-operations center (GMOC); and the complex systems engineering and integration that would be required to develop, operate, and evolve a future GHGIS.« less

Angular dependence of the response of the nanoDot OSLD system for measurements at depth in clinical megavoltage beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehmann, Joerg, E-mail: Joerg.Lehmann@sydney.edu.au; Institute of Medical Physics, University of Sydney, Physics Road A28, Sydney, NSW 2006; School of Applied Sciences, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to assess the angular dependence of a commercial optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) dosimetry system in MV x-ray beams at depths beyondd{sub max} and to find ways to mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Methods: Two special holders were designed which allow a dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume. The dosimeter's sensitive volume is a disk, 5 mm in diameter and 0.2 mm thick. The first holder rotates the disk in the traditional way. It positions the disk perpendicular to the beam (gantry pointing to the floor)more » in the initial position (0°). When the holder is rotated the angle of the disk towards the beam increases until the disk is parallel with the beam (“edge on,” 90°). This is referred to as Setup 1. The second holder offers a new, alternative measurement position. It positions the disk parallel to the beam for all angles while rotating around its center (Setup 2). Measurements with five to ten dosimeters per point were carried out for 6 MV at 3 and 10 cm depth. Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 were performed to simulate the response of the active detector material for several angles. Detector and housing were simulated in detail based on microCT data and communications with the manufacturer. Various material compositions and an all-water geometry were considered. Results: For the traditional Setup 1 the response of the OSLD dropped on average by 1.4% ± 0.7% (measurement) and 2.1% ± 0.3% (Monte Carlo simulation) for the 90° orientation compared to 0°. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming the layer to completely consist of the active material (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response within the simulation uncertainty of about 1%. For the new Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. Conclusions: The dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence of approximately 2% which needs to be considered for measurements involving other than normal incident beams angles. This applies in particular to clinicalin vivo measurements where the orientation of the dosimeter is dictated by clinical circumstances and cannot be optimized as otherwise suggested here. When measuring in a phantom, the proposed new setup should be considered. It changes the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the disk shaped detector material from the thin side and thereby reduces the angular dependence of the response to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This improvement makes the dosimeter more attractive for clinical measurements with multiple coplanar beams in phantoms, as the overall measurement uncertainty is reduced. Similarly, phantom based postal audits can transition from the traditional TLD to the more accurate and convenient OSLD.« less

IDENTIFYING WOMEN AT RISK OF UNCERTAINTY AND POOR QUALITY OF LIFE WHEN UNDERGOING BREAST CANCER SURGERY: A SURVEY-BASED DESCRIPTIVE STUDY.

PubMed

Van Straten, S K; Xu, M; Rayne, S R

2017-06-01

Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in South African women. In resource-limited settings emphasis for disease management is often concentrated on biological control and survival. However, understanding the full biopsychosocial experience of breast cancer is essential in improving access and patient uptake of care. A quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out in patients prior to breast surgery. Each participant completed the survey including validated questionnaires of uncertainty, QoL index, social support scale and demographics. Of the 59 women approached, 53 (89.9%) participated. Uncertainty was found in 86.8% (28.3% severe uncertainty) with all newly-diagnosed patients experiencing uncertainty. Patients above 45 years made up 80% of all those who were severely uncertain. Good social support did not affect levels of uncertainty. Conversely QoL was improved in women with at least primary education, and in women above 45 years. Pre-surgical chemotherapy was not associated with either uncertainty or QoL. Greatest uncertainty was reported about the roles of the treating staff and the presence of unanswered questions. Older women and those with education more commonly experienced uncertainty, but reported better QoL. The areas of uncertainty can help direct clinicians in limited resources settings to better direct services to help support patients, instituting simple measures of education and orientation.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Contingency theoretic methodology for agent-based web-oriented manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durrett, John R.; Burnell, Lisa J.; Priest, John W.

2000-12-01

The development of distributed, agent-based, web-oriented, N-tier Information Systems (IS) must be supported by a design methodology capable of responding to the convergence of shifts in business process design, organizational structure, computing, and telecommunications infrastructures. We introduce a contingency theoretic model for the use of open, ubiquitous software infrastructure in the design of flexible organizational IS. Our basic premise is that developers should change in the way they view the software design process from a view toward the solution of a problem to one of the dynamic creation of teams of software components. We postulate that developing effective, efficient, flexible, component-based distributed software requires reconceptualizing the current development model. The basic concepts of distributed software design are merged with the environment-causes-structure relationship from contingency theory; the task-uncertainty of organizational- information-processing relationships from information processing theory; and the concept of inter-process dependencies from coordination theory. Software processes are considered as employees, groups of processes as software teams, and distributed systems as software organizations. Design techniques already used in the design of flexible business processes and well researched in the domain of the organizational sciences are presented. Guidelines that can be utilized in the creation of component-based distributed software will be discussed.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Distributed and Localized Deformation Along the Lebanese Restraining Bend from Geomorphic Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, L.; Castelltort, S.; Klinger, Y.

2014-12-01

The Dead Sea Fault System changes its orientation across Lebanon and forms a restraining bend. The oblique deformation along the Lebanese restraining bend is characterized by a complex suite of tectonic structures, among which, the Yammouneh Fault (YF), is believed to be the main strand that relays deformation from the southern section to the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault System. However, uncertainties regarding slip rates and strain partitioning in Lebanon still prevail. Here, we use morphometric analysis together with analytical and numerical models to constrain rates and modes of distributed and localized deformation along the Lebanese restraining bend.The rivers that drain the western flank of Mount Lebanon show a consistent counterclockwise rotation with respect to an expected orogen perpendicular orientation. Moreover, a pattern of divide disequilibrium in between these rivers emerges from an application of the χ mapping technique, which aims at estimating the degree of geometrical and topological disequilibrium in river networks. These geometrical patterns are compatible with simulation results using a landscape evolution model, which imposes a distributed velocity field along a domain that represents the western flank of Mount Lebanon. We further develop an analytical model that relates the river orientation to a set of kinematic parameters that represents a combined pure and simple shear strain field, and we find the parameters that best explain the present orientation of the western Lebanon rivers. Our results indicate that distributed deformation to the west of the YF takes as much as 30% of the relative Arabia-Sinai plate velocity since the late Miocene, and that the average slip rate along the YF during the same time interval has been 3.8-4.4 mm/yr. The theoretical model can further explain the inferred rotation from Paleomagnetic measurements.

Evaluating the combined effects of source zone mass release rates and aquifer heterogeneity on solute discharge uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2018-07-01

Quantifying the uncertainty in solute mass discharge at an environmentally sensitive location is key to assess the risks due to groundwater contamination. Solute mass fluxes are strongly affected by the spatial variability of hydrogeological properties as well as release conditions at the source zone. This paper provides a methodological framework to investigate the interaction between the ubiquitous heterogeneity of the hydraulic conductivity and the mass release rate at the source zone on the uncertainty of mass discharge. Through the use of perturbation theory, we derive analytical and semi-analytical expressions for the statistics of the solute mass discharge at a control plane in a three-dimensional aquifer while accounting for the solute mass release rates at the source. The derived solutions are limited to aquifers displaying low-to-mild heterogeneity. Results illustrate the significance of the source zone mass release rate in controlling the mass discharge uncertainty. The relative importance of the mass release rate on the mean solute discharge depends on the distance between the source and the control plane. On the other hand, we find that the solute release rate at the source zone has a strong impact on the variance of the mass discharge. Within a risk context, we also compute the peak mean discharge as a function of the parameters governing the spatial heterogeneity of the hydraulic conductivity field and mass release rates at the source zone. The proposed physically-based framework is application-oriented, computationally efficient and capable of propagating uncertainty from different parameters onto risk metrics. Furthermore, it can be used for preliminary screening purposes to guide site managers to perform system-level sensitivity analysis and better allocate resources.

Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2012-12-01

As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks including overcoming unrealistically precise information demands. While monitoring systems design and operation should be guided by the standards and requirements of management, those who provide information to the system (e.g. hydromet services) should also derive benefits. Drawing on identified information needs to support climate risk management (in drought, water resources and other areas) we outline principles of effective monitoring and develop preliminary strategic guidance for information systems being developed through the GEO, GCOS and Global and national frameworks for climate services. The efficacy of such services are improved by a problem-solving orientation, participatory planning, extension management and improvements in the use and value of existing data to legitimize new investments.

Material characterization in partially filled waveguides using inverse scattering and multiple sample orientations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjöberg, Daniel; Larsson, Christer

2015-06-01

We present a method aimed at reducing uncertainties and instabilities when characterizing materials in waveguide setups. The method is based on measuring the S parameters for three different orientations of a rectangular sample block in a rectangular waveguide. The corresponding geometries are modeled in a commercial full-wave simulation program, taking any material parameters as input. The material parameters of the sample are found by minimizing the squared distance between measured and calculated S parameters. The information added by the different sample orientations is quantified using the Cramér-Rao lower bound. The flexibility of the method allows the determination of material parameters of an arbitrarily shaped sample that fits in the waveguide.

Object-oriented software for evaluating measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, B. D.

2013-05-01

An earlier publication (Hall 2006 Metrologia 43 L56-61) introduced the notion of an uncertain number that can be used in data processing to represent quantity estimates with associated uncertainty. The approach can be automated, allowing data processing algorithms to be decomposed into convenient steps, so that complicated measurement procedures can be handled. This paper illustrates the uncertain-number approach using several simple measurement scenarios and two different software tools. One is an extension library for Microsoft Excel®. The other is a special-purpose calculator using the Python programming language.

Goal-Oriented Probability Density Function Methods for Uncertainty Quantification

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-11

approximations or data-driven approaches. We investigated the accuracy of analytical tech- niques based Kubo -Van Kampen operator cumulant expansions for...analytical techniques based Kubo -Van Kampen operator cumulant expansions for Langevin equations driven by fractional Brownian motion and other noises

Communication Behaviors and Trust in Collaborative Online Teams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulu, Saniye Tugba; Yildirim, Zahide

2008-01-01

This study investigates preservice teachers' trust levels and collaborative communication behaviors namely leadership, feedback, social interaction, enthusiasm, task and technical uncertainties, and task-oriented interactions in online learning environment. A case study design involving qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis was…

Trust in College Transitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Brent J.

2017-01-01

Trust is an important variable for transitioning college students, who report a great amount of fear and uncertainty when beginning college (Bell & Williams, 2006). College students transitioning effectively need to trust both their peers and institutional representatives. Outdoor orientation programs are reported to build upon "trusting…

Tilt-Pair Analysis of Images from a Range of Different Specimens in Single-Particle Electron Cryomicroscopy

PubMed Central

Henderson, Richard; Chen, Shaoxia; Chen, James Z.; Grigorieff, Nikolaus; Passmore, Lori A.; Ciccarelli, Luciano; Rubinstein, John L.; Crowther, R. Anthony; Stewart, Phoebe L.; Rosenthal, Peter B.

2011-01-01

The comparison of a pair of electron microscope images recorded at different specimen tilt angles provides a powerful approach for evaluating the quality of images, image-processing procedures, or three-dimensional structures. Here, we analyze tilt-pair images recorded from a range of specimens with different symmetries and molecular masses and show how the analysis can produce valuable information not easily obtained otherwise. We show that the accuracy of orientation determination of individual single particles depends on molecular mass, as expected theoretically since the information in each particle image increases with molecular mass. The angular uncertainty is less than 1° for particles of high molecular mass (∼ 50 MDa), several degrees for particles in the range 1–5 MDa, and tens of degrees for particles below 1 MDa. Orientational uncertainty may be the major contributor to the effective temperature factor (B-factor) describing contrast loss and therefore the maximum resolution of a structure determination. We also made two unexpected observations. Single particles that are known to be flexible showed a wider spread in orientation accuracy, and the orientations of the largest particles examined changed by several degrees during typical low-dose exposures. Smaller particles presumably also reorient during the exposure; hence, specimen movement is a second major factor that limits resolution. Tilt pairs thus enable assessment of orientation accuracy, map quality, specimen motion, and conformational heterogeneity. A convincing tilt-pair parameter plot, where 60% of the particles show a single cluster around the expected tilt axis and tilt angle, provides confidence in a structure determined using electron cryomicroscopy. PMID:21939668

Assessment of langatate material constants and temperature coefficients using SAW delay line measurements.

PubMed

Sturtevant, Blake T; Pereira da Cunha, Mauricio

2010-03-01

This paper reports on the assessment of langatate (LGT) acoustic material constants and temperature coefficients by surface acoustic wave (SAW) delay line measurements up to 130 degrees C. Based upon a full set of material constants recently reported by the authors, 7 orientations in the LGT plane with Euler angles (90 degrees, 23 degrees, Psi) were identified for testing. Each of the 7 selected orientations exhibited calculated coupling coefficients (K(2)) between 0.2% and 0.75% and also showed a large range of predicted temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) values around room temperature. Additionally, methods for estimating the uncertainty in predicted SAW propagation properties were developed and applied to SAW phase velocity and temperature coefficient of delay calculations. Starting from a purchased LGT boule, the SAW wafers used in this work were aligned, cut, ground, and polished at University of Maine facilities, followed by device fabrication and testing. Using repeated measurements of 2 devices on separate wafers for each of the 7 orientations, the room temperature SAW phase velocities were extracted with a precision of 0.1% and found to be in agreement with the predicted values. The normalized frequency change and the temperature coefficient of delay for all 7 orientations agreed with predictions within the uncertainty of the measurement and the predictions over the entire 120 degrees C temperature range measured. Two orientations, with Euler angles (90 degrees, 23 degrees, 123 degrees) and (90 degrees, 23 degrees, 119 degrees), were found to have high predicted coupling for LGT (K(2) > 0.5%) and were shown experimentally to exhibit temperature compensation in the vicinity of room temperature, with turnover temperatures at 50 and 60 degrees C, respectively.

Uncertainties of atmospheric polarimetric measurements with sun-sky radiometers induced by errors of relative orientations of polarizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Li, Zhengqiang; Li, Kaitao; Sun, Bin; Wu, Yanke; Xu, Hua; Xie, Yisong; Goloub, Philippe; Wendisch, Manfred

2018-04-01

In this study errors of the relative orientations of polarizers in the Cimel polarized sun-sky radiometers are measured and introduced into the Mueller matrix of the instrument. The linearly polarized light with different polarization directions from 0° to 180° (or 360°) is generated by using a rotating linear polarizer in front of an integrating sphere. Through measuring the referential linearly polarized light, the errors of relative orientations of polarizers are determined. The efficiencies of the polarizers are obtained simultaneously. By taking the error of relative orientation into consideration in the Mueller matrix, the accuracies of the calculated Stokes parameters, the degree of linear polarization, and the angle of polarization are remarkably improved. The method may also apply to other polarization instruments of similar types.

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI

PubMed Central

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-01-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations. PMID:28845484

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2015-10-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations.

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

On Becoming a Language Teacher.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jakobovits, Leon A.

Underlying this essay on psycholinguistic theory is the belief that language teachers often suffer from neurotic symptoms of confusion, anxiety, and uncertainty in connection with their work. The author discusses his "BALT" theory (battered language teachers). Philosophically-oriented remarks are directed toward teachers wishing to redirect their…

Millisecond timing on PCs and Macs.

PubMed

MacInnes, W J; Taylor, T L

2001-05-01

A real-time, object-oriented solution for displaying stimuli on Windows 95/98, MacOS and Linux platforms is presented. The program, written in C++, utilizes a special-purpose window class (GLWindow), OpenGL, and 32-bit graphics acceleration; it avoids display timing uncertainty by substituting the new window class for the default window code for each system. We report the outcome of tests for real-time capability across PC and Mac platforms running a variety of operating systems. The test program, which can be used as a shell for programming real-time experiments and testing specific processors, is available at http://www.cs.dal.ca/~macinnwj. We propose to provide researchers with a sense of the usefulness of our program, highlight the ability of many multitasking environments to achieve real time, as well as caution users about systems that may not achieve real time, even under optimal conditions.

What's the Worry with Social Anxiety? Comparing Cognitive Processes in Children with Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Social Anxiety Disorder.

PubMed

Hearn, Cate S; Donovan, Caroline L; Spence, Susan H; March, Sonja; Holmes, Monique C

2017-10-01

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) in children is often comorbid with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). We investigated whether worry, intolerance of uncertainty, beliefs about worry, negative problem orientation and cognitive avoidance, that are typically associated with GAD, are present in children with SAD. Participants included 60 children (8-12 years), matched on age and gender. Groups included children: with primary GAD and without SAD (GAD); with primary SAD and without GAD (SAD); and without an anxiety disorder (NAD). GAD and SAD groups scored significantly higher than the NAD group on worry, intolerance of uncertainty, negative beliefs about worry and negative problem orientation, however, they did not score differently from each other. Only the GAD group scored significantly higher than the NAD group on cognitive avoidance. These findings further understanding of the structure of SAD and suggest that the high comorbidity between SAD and GAD may be due to similar underlying processes within the disorders.

A statistical approach to the brittle fracture of a multi-phase solid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. K.; Lua, Y. I.; Belytschko, T.

1991-01-01

A stochastic damage model is proposed to quantify the inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness of a brittle, multi-phase solid. The model, based on the macrocrack-microcrack interaction, incorporates uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks. Due to the high concentration of microcracks near the macro-tip, a higher order analysis based on traction boundary integral equations is formulated first for an arbitrary array of cracks. The effects of uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks at a macro-tip are analyzed quantitatively by using the boundary integral equations method in conjunction with the computer simulation of the random microcrack array. The short range interactions resulting from surrounding microcracks closet to the main crack tip are investigated. The effects of microcrack density parameter are also explored in the present study. The validity of the present model is demonstrated by comparing its statistical output with the Neville distribution function, which gives correct fits to sets of experimental data from multi-phase solids.

Making framing of uncertainty in water management practice explicit by using a participant-structured approach.

PubMed

Isendahl, Nicola; Dewulf, Art; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

2010-01-01

By now, the need for addressing uncertainty in the management of water resources is widely recognized, yet there is little expertise and experience how to effectively deal with uncertainty in practice. Uncertainties in water management practice so far are mostly dealt with intuitively or based on experience. That way decisions can be quickly taken but analytic processes of deliberate reasoning are bypassed. To meet the desire of practitioners for better guidance and tools how to deal with uncertainty more practice-oriented systematic approaches are needed. For that purpose we consider it important to understand how practitioners frame uncertainties. In this paper we present an approach where water managers developed criteria of relevance to understand and address uncertainties. The empirical research took place in the Doñana region of the Guadalquivir estuary in southern Spain making use of the method of card sorting. Through the card sorting exercise a broad range of criteria to make sense of and describe uncertainties was produced by different subgroups, which were then merged into a shared list of criteria. That way framing differences were made explicit and communication on uncertainty and on framing differences was enhanced. In that, the present approach constitutes a first step to enabling reframing and overcoming framing differences, which are important features on the way to robust decision-making. Moreover, the elaborated criteria build a basis for the development of more structured approaches to deal with uncertainties in water management practice. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and visualization of uncertainty for countrywide soil organic matter map of Hungary using local entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szatmári, Gábor; Pásztor, László

2016-04-01

Uncertainty is a general term expressing our imperfect knowledge in describing an environmental process and we are aware of it (Bárdossy and Fodor, 2004). Sampling, laboratory measurements, models and so on are subject to uncertainty. Effective quantification and visualization of uncertainty would be indispensable to stakeholders (e.g. policy makers, society). Soil related features and their spatial models should be stressfully targeted to uncertainty assessment because their inferences are further used in modelling and decision making process. The aim of our present study was to assess and effectively visualize the local uncertainty of the countrywide soil organic matter (SOM) spatial distribution model of Hungary using geostatistical tools and concepts. The Hungarian Soil Information and Monitoring System's SOM data (approximately 1,200 observations) and environmental related, spatially exhaustive secondary information (i.e. digital elevation model, climatic maps, MODIS satellite images and geological map) were used to model the countrywide SOM spatial distribution by regression kriging. It would be common to use the calculated estimation (or kriging) variance as a measure of uncertainty, however the normality and homoscedasticity hypotheses have to be refused according to our preliminary analysis on the data. Therefore, a normal score transformation and a sequential stochastic simulation approach was introduced to be able to model and assess the local uncertainty. Five hundred equally probable realizations (i.e. stochastic images) were generated. The number of the stochastic images is fairly enough to provide a model of uncertainty at each location, which is a complete description of uncertainty in geostatistics (Deutsch and Journel, 1998). Furthermore, these models can be applied e.g. to contour the probability of any events, which can be regarded as goal oriented digital soil maps and are of interest for agricultural management and decision making as well. A standardized measure of the local entropy was used to visualize uncertainty, where entropy values close to 1 correspond to high uncertainty, whilst values close to 0 correspond low uncertainty. The advantage of the usage of local entropy in this context is that it combines probabilities from multiple members into a single number for each location of the model. In conclusion, it is straightforward to use a sequential stochastic simulation approach to the assessment of uncertainty, when normality and homoscedasticity are violated. The visualization of uncertainty using the local entropy is effective and communicative to stakeholders because it represents the uncertainty through a single number within a [0, 1] scale. References: Bárdossy, Gy. & Fodor, J., 2004. Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. Deutsch, C.V. & Journel, A.G., 1998. GSLIB: geostatistical software library and user's guide. Oxford University Press, New York. Acknowledgement: Our work was supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

A novel single thruster control strategy for spacecraft attitude stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godard; Kumar, Krishna Dev; Zou, An-Min

2013-05-01

Feasibility of achieving three axis attitude stabilization using a single thruster is explored in this paper. Torques are generated using a thruster orientation mechanism with which the thrust vector can be tilted on a two axis gimbal. A robust nonlinear control scheme is developed based on the nonlinear kinematic and dynamic equations of motion of a rigid body spacecraft in the presence of gravity gradient torque and external disturbances. The spacecraft, controlled using the proposed concept, constitutes an underactuated system (a system with fewer independent control inputs than degrees of freedom) with nonlinear dynamics. Moreover, using thruster gimbal angles as control inputs make the system non-affine (control terms appear nonlinearly in the state equation). This necessitates the control algorithms to be developed based on nonlinear control theory since linear control methods are not directly applicable. The stability conditions for the spacecraft attitude motion for robustness against uncertainties and disturbances are derived to establish the regions of asymptotic 3-axis attitude stabilization. Several numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed controller and validate the theoretical results. The control algorithm is shown to compensate for time-varying external disturbances including solar radiation pressure, aerodynamic forces, and magnetic disturbances; and uncertainties in the spacecraft inertia parameters. The numerical results also establish the robustness of the proposed control scheme to negate disturbances caused by orbit eccentricity.

Surveying glacier bedrock topography with a helicopter-borne dual-polarization ground-penetrating radar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhammer, L.; Rabenstein, L.; Schmid, L.; Bauder, A.; Schaer, P.; Maurer, H.

2017-12-01

Glacier mass estimations are crucial for future run-off projections in the Swiss Alps. Traditionally, ice thickness modeling approaches and ground-based radar transects have been the tools of choice for estimating glacier volume in high mountain areas, but these methods either contain high uncertainties or are logistically expensive and offer mostly only sparse subsurface information. We have developed a helicopter-borne dual-polarization ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system, which enhances operational feasibility in rough, high-elevation terrain and increases the data output per acquisition campaign significantly. Our system employs a prototype pulseEKKO device with two broadside 25-MHz antenna pairs fixed to a helicopter-towed wooden frame. Additionally attached to the system are a laser altimeter for measuring the flight height above ground, three GPS receivers for accurate positioning and a GoPro camera for obtaining visual images of the surface. Previous investigations have shown the significant impact of the antenna dipole orientation on the detectability of the bedrock reflection. For optimal results, the dipoles of the GPR should be aligned parallel to the strike direction of the surrounding mountain walls. In areas with a generally unknown bedrock topography, such as saddle areas or diverging zones, a dual-polarization system is particularly useful. This could be demonstrated with helicopter-borne GPR profiles acquired on more than 25 glaciers in the Swiss Alps. We observed significant differences in ice-bedrock interface visibility depending on the orientation of the antennas.

The influence of a market-oriented primary care reform on family physicians' working conditions: A qualitative study in Turkey.

PubMed

Çiçeklioğlu, Meltem; Öcek, Zeliha Aslı; Turk, Meral; Taner, Şafak

2015-06-01

Turkey has undergone a 'Health transformation programme' putting emphasis on the reorganization of primary care (PC) services towards a more market-oriented system. To obtain a deep understanding of how family physicians (FPs) experienced the process of the reforms by focusing on working conditions. This phenomenological and qualitative research used maximum variation sampling and 51 FPs were interviewed in 36 in-depth and four focus-group interviews. Thematic analysis of interviews provided seven themes: (1) change in the professional identity of PC physicians (physician as businessperson); (2) transformation of the physician-patient relationship in PC (into a provider-customer relationship); (3) job description and workload; (4) interpersonal relationships; (5) remuneration of FPs, (6) uncertainty about the future and (7) exhaustion. Most FPs felt that the Family medicine model (FMM) placed more emphasis on the business function of family practice and this conflicted with their professional characteristics as physicians. FPs complained that some of their patients behaved as extremely demanding consumers. Continuously increasing responsibilities and extremely high workload were commonly reported problems. Most participants described the negative incentives in the performance scheme as a degrading method of punishment. The main factor was job insecurity caused by contract-based employment. FPs described the point at which they are with terms such as exhaustion. By increasing workload and creating uncertainty about the future and about income, the PC reforms have led to working conditions, which has led to changes in the professional attitudes of physicians and their practice of medicine.

Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

2010-12-01

The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST I/O protocol). MADS can also be internally coupled with a series of built-in analytical simulators. MADS provides functionality to work directly with existing control files developed for the code PEST (Doherty 2009). To perform the computational modes mentioned above, the code utilizes (1) advanced Latin-Hypercube sampling techniques (including Improved Distributed Sampling), (2) various gradient-based Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, (3) advanced global optimization methods (including Particle Swarm Optimization), and (4) a selection of alternative objective functions. The code has been successfully applied to perform various model analyses related to environmental management of real contamination sites. Examples include source identification problems, quantification of uncertainty, model calibration, and optimization of monitoring networks. The methodology and software codes are demonstrated using synthetic and real case studies where monitoring networks are optimized taking into account the uncertainty in model predictions of contaminant transport.

Enhanced orbit determination filter sensitivity analysis: Error budget development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estefan, J. A.; Burkhart, P. D.

1994-01-01

An error budget analysis is presented which quantifies the effects of different error sources in the orbit determination process when the enhanced orbit determination filter, recently developed, is used to reduce radio metric data. The enhanced filter strategy differs from more traditional filtering methods in that nearly all of the principal ground system calibration errors affecting the data are represented as filter parameters. Error budget computations were performed for a Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario for cases in which only X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler data were used to determine the spacecraft's orbit, X-band ranging data were used exclusively, and a combined set in which the ranging data were used in addition to the Doppler data. In all three cases, the filter model was assumed to be a correct representation of the physical world. Random nongravitational accelerations were found to be the largest source of error contributing to the individual error budgets. Other significant contributors, depending on the data strategy used, were solar-radiation pressure coefficient uncertainty, random earth-orientation calibration errors, and Deep Space Network (DSN) station location uncertainty.

Uncertainty quantification of fiber orientation distribution measurements for long-fiber-reinforced thermoplastic composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, Bhisham N.; Naragani, Diwakar; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

We present a detailed methodology for experimental measurement of fiber orientation distribution (FOD) in injection-molded discontinuous fiber composites using the method of ellipses on 2D cross sections. Best practices to avoid biases occurring during surface preparation and optical imaging of carbon-fiber-reinforced thermoplastics are discussed. A marker-based watershed transform routine for efficient image segmentation and the separation of touching fiber ellipses is developed. The sensitivity of the averaged orientation tensor to the image sample size is studied for the case of long-fiber thermoplastics. A Mori-Tanaka implementation of the Eshelby model is then employed to quantify the sensitivity of elastic stiffness predictionsmore » to biases in the FOD measurements.« less

Uncertainty Quantification in Geomagnetic Field Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulliat, A.; Nair, M. C.; Alken, P.; Meyer, B.; Saltus, R.; Woods, A.

2017-12-01

Geomagnetic field models are mathematical descriptions of the various sources of the Earth's magnetic field, and are generally obtained by solving an inverse problem. They are widely used in research to separate and characterize field sources, but also in many practical applications such as aircraft and ship navigation, smartphone orientation, satellite attitude control, and directional drilling. In recent years, more sophisticated models have been developed, thanks to the continuous availability of high quality satellite data and to progress in modeling techniques. Uncertainty quantification has become an integral part of model development, both to assess the progress made and to address specific users' needs. Here we report on recent advances made by our group in quantifying the uncertainty of geomagnetic field models. We first focus on NOAA's World Magnetic Model (WMM) and the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), two reference models of the main (core) magnetic field produced every five years. We describe the methods used in quantifying the model commission error as well as the omission error attributed to various un-modeled sources such as magnetized rocks in the crust and electric current systems in the atmosphere and near-Earth environment. A simple error model was derived from this analysis, to facilitate usage in practical applications. We next report on improvements brought by combining a main field model with a high resolution crustal field model and a time-varying, real-time external field model, like in NOAA's High Definition Geomagnetic Model (HDGM). The obtained uncertainties are used by the directional drilling industry to mitigate health, safety and environment risks.

Uncertainty in Ecohydrological Modeling in an Arid Region Determined with Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Yang, Junjun; He, Zhibin; Du, Jun; Chen, Longfei; Zhu, Xi

2016-01-01

In arid regions, water resources are a key forcing factor in ecosystem circulation, and soil moisture is the critical link that constrains plant and animal life on the soil surface and underground. Simulation of soil moisture in arid ecosystems is inherently difficult due to high variability. We assessed the applicability of the process-oriented CoupModel for forecasting of soil water relations in arid regions. We used vertical soil moisture profiling for model calibration. We determined that model-structural uncertainty constituted the largest error; the model did not capture the extremes of low soil moisture in the desert-oasis ecotone (DOE), particularly below 40 cm soil depth. Our results showed that total uncertainty in soil moisture prediction was improved when input and output data, parameter value array, and structure errors were characterized explicitly. Bayesian analysis was applied with prior information to reduce uncertainty. The need to provide independent descriptions of uncertainty analysis (UA) in the input and output data was demonstrated. Application of soil moisture simulation in arid regions will be useful for dune-stabilization and revegetation efforts in the DOE. PMID:26963523

Calibrated work function mapping by Kelvin probe force microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández Garrillo, Pablo A.; Grévin, Benjamin; Chevalier, Nicolas; Borowik, Łukasz

2018-04-01

We propose and demonstrate the implementation of an alternative work function tip calibration procedure for Kelvin probe force microscopy under ultrahigh vacuum, using monocrystalline metallic materials with known crystallographic orientation as reference samples, instead of the often used highly oriented pyrolytic graphite calibration sample. The implementation of this protocol allows the acquisition of absolute and reproducible work function values, with an improved uncertainty with respect to unprepared highly oriented pyrolytic graphite-based protocols. The developed protocol allows the local investigation of absolute work function values over nanostructured samples and can be implemented in electronic structures and devices characterization as demonstrated over a nanostructured semiconductor sample presenting Al0.7Ga0.3As and GaAs layers with variable thickness. Additionally, using our protocol we find that the work function of annealed highly oriented pyrolytic graphite is equal to 4.6 ± 0.03 eV.

Designing and managing successful endangered species recovery programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Tim W.; Crete, Ron; Cada, John

1989-03-01

Endangered species recovery is characterized by complexity and uncertainty in both its biological and organizational aspects. To improve performance in the organizational dimension, some models of organizations are briefly introduced with an emphasis on the organization as a system for processing information, i.e., for successfully dealing with the high uncertainty in the task environment. A strong task orientation,which rewards achievement of the primary goal, is suggested as ideal for this task, as is generative rationality, which encourages workers to observe, critique, and generate new ideas. The parallel organization—a flexible, participatory, problem-solving structure set up alongside traditional bureaucracies—is offered as a useful structure for meeting the demands of uncertainties encountered during recovery. Task forces and projects teams can be set up as parallel organizations. Improved managerial functions include coordinating roles to facilitate the flow and use of information; decision making to avoid “groupthink”—the defects, symptoms, and countermeasures are described; and productive, active management of the inevitable conflict. The inability of organizations to solve dilemmas, to examine their own structures and management, and to change themselves for more effective, efficient, and equitable performance is seen as the major obstacle to improved recovery programs. Some recommendations for effecting change in bureaucracies are made along with a call for case studies detailing the organizational dimensions of endangered species recovery programs.

Visual Detection Under Uncertainty Operates Via an Early Static, Not Late Dynamic, Non-Linearity

PubMed Central

Neri, Peter

2010-01-01

Signals in the environment are rarely specified exactly: our visual system may know what to look for (e.g., a specific face), but not its exact configuration (e.g., where in the room, or in what orientation). Uncertainty, and the ability to deal with it, is a fundamental aspect of visual processing. The MAX model is the current gold standard for describing how human vision handles uncertainty: of all possible configurations for the signal, the observer chooses the one corresponding to the template associated with the largest response. We propose an alternative model in which the MAX operation, which is a dynamic non-linearity (depends on multiple inputs from several stimulus locations) and happens after the input stimulus has been matched to the possible templates, is replaced by an early static non-linearity (depends only on one input corresponding to one stimulus location) which is applied before template matching. By exploiting an integrated set of analytical and experimental tools, we show that this model is able to account for a number of empirical observations otherwise unaccounted for by the MAX model, and is more robust with respect to the realistic limitations imposed by the available neural hardware. We then discuss how these results, currently restricted to a simple visual detection task, may extend to a wider range of problems in sensory processing. PMID:21212835

Simple estimation of Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) orientation factor distribution in membranes.

PubMed

Loura, Luís M S

2012-11-19

Because of its acute sensitivity to distance in the nanometer scale, Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) has found a large variety of applications in many fields of chemistry, physics, and biology. One important issue regarding the correct usage of FRET is its dependence on the donor-acceptor relative orientation, expressed as the orientation factor k(2). Different donor/acceptor conformations can lead to k(2) values in the 0 ≤ k(2) ≤ 4 range. Because the characteristic distance for FRET, R(0), is proportional to (k(2))1/6, uncertainties in the orientation factor are reflected in the quality of information that can be retrieved from a FRET experiment. In most cases, the average value of k(2) corresponding to the dynamic isotropic limit ( = 2/3) is used for computation of R(0) and hence donor-acceptor distances and acceptor concentrations. However, this can lead to significant error in unfavorable cases. This issue is more critical in membrane systems, because of their intrinsically anisotropic nature and their reduced fluidity in comparison to most common solvents. Here, a simple numerical simulation method for estimation of the probability density function of k(2) for membrane-embedded donor and acceptor fluorophores in the dynamic regime is presented. In the simplest form, the proposed procedure uses as input the most probable orientations of the donor and acceptor transition dipoles, obtained by experimental (including linear dichroism) or theoretical (such as molecular dynamics simulation) techniques. Optionally, information about the widths of the donor and/or acceptor angular distributions may be incorporated. The methodology is illustrated for special limiting cases and common membrane FRET pairs.

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Hay, L.E.; ,

2005-01-01

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Control-oriented modelization of a satellite with large flexible appendages and use of worst-case analysis to verify robustness to model uncertainties of attitude control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasbarri, Paolo; Monti, Riccardo; Campolo, Giovanni; Toglia, Chiara

2012-12-01

The design of large space structures (LSS) requires the use of design and analysis tools that include different disciplines. For such a kind of spacecrafts it is in fact mandatory that mechanical design and guidance navigation and control (GNC) design are developed within a common framework. One of the key-points in the development of LSS is related to the dynamic phenomena. These phenomena usually lead to two different interpretations. The former one is related to the overall motion of the spacecraft, i.e., the motion of the centre of gravity and motion around the centre of gravity. The latter one is related to the local motion of the elastic elements that leads to oscillations. These oscillations have in turn a disturbing effect on the motion of the spacecraft. From an engineering perspective, the structural model of flexible spacecrafts is generally obtained via FEM involving thousands of degrees of freedom (DOFs). Many of them are not significant from the attitude control point of view. One of the procedures to reduce the structural DOFs is tied to the modal decomposition technique. In the present paper a technique to develop a control-oriented structural model will be proposed. Starting from a detailed FE model of the spacecraft and using a special modal condensation approach, a continuous model is defined. With this transformation the number of DOFs necessary to study the coupled elastic/rigid dynamic is reduced. The final dynamic model will be suitable for the control design implementation. In order to properly design a satellite controller, it is important to recall that the characteristic parameters of the satellite are uncertain. The effect that uncertainties have on control performance must be investigated. A possible solution is that, after the attitude controller is designed on the nominal model, a Verification and Validation (V&V) process is performed to guarantee a correct functionality under a large number of scenarios. The V&V process can be very lengthy and expensive: difficulty and cost do increase because of the overall system dimension that depends on the number of uncertainties. Uncertain parameters have to be parametrically investigated to determine robust performance of the control laws via gridding approaches. In particular in this paper we propose to consider two methods: (i) a conventional Monte Carlo analysis, and (ii) a worst-case analysis, i.e., an optimization process to find an estimation of the true worst-case behaviour. Both techniques allow to verify that the design is robust enough to meet the system performance specification in case of uncertainties.

Examining the Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale Among Members of an Alternative Sexuality Special Interest Group.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Golom, Frank D; Gemberling, Tess M; Trost, Kristen; Lewis, Robin; Wright, Susan

2018-05-01

The present study contributes to a growing body of literature developing psychometrically and theoretically grounded measures of sexual orientation minority identity. We tested psychometric properties and construct validity of a 27-item measure, the Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale (LGBIS). The sample consisted of 475 adult (178 male, 237 female, 16 male-to-female, 14 female-to-male, and 30 gender queer persons) members of a special interest group, the National Coalition for Sexual Freedom. Participants completed a health needs questionnaire. Prominent findings included (1) confirmatory factor-analytic, internal consistency, and inter-correlation patterns support two LGBIS factor structures; (2) men, compared primarily to women, reported elevated scores on Acceptance Concerns, Concealment Motivation, Difficulty Process, and Negative Identity; (3) queer-identifying persons tended to report low Concealment Motivation, and high Identity Affirmation and Identity Centrality scores; (4) experimenting/fluid-identifying individuals tended toward higher Identity Uncertainty and Negative Identity, and lower Identity Centrality scores; (5) LGB community involvement was negatively associated with Concealment Motivation, Identity Uncertainty, and Negative Identity, and positively associated with Identity Superiority, Identity Affirmation, and Identity Centrality scores; and (6) Acceptance Concerns, Identity Uncertainty, and Internalized Homonegativity displayed significant positive associations with such mental health symptoms as general anxiety and posttraumatic stress. The LGBIS represents a useful approach to evaluating sexual orientation minority identity. Implications for identity theory, research, and practice are provided.

Selection of asset investment models by hospitals: examination of influencing factors, using Switzerland as an example.

PubMed

Eicher, Bernhard

2016-10-01

Hospitals are responsible for a remarkable part of the annual increase in healthcare expenditure. This article examines one of the major cost drivers, the expenditure for investment in hospital assets. The study, conducted in Switzerland, identifies factors that influence hospitals' investment decisions. A suggestion on how to categorize asset investment models is presented based on the life cycle of an asset, and its influencing factors defined based on transaction cost economics. The influence of five factors (human asset specificity, physical asset specificity, uncertainty, bargaining power, and privacy of ownership) on the selection of an asset investment model is examined using a two-step fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The research shows that outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are particularly favored in the presence of two combinations of influencing factors: First, if technological uncertainty is high and both human asset specificity and bargaining power of a hospital are low. Second, if assets are very specific, technological uncertainty is high and there is a private hospital with low bargaining power, outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are favored too. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, it can be demonstrated that investment decisions of hospitals do not depend on isolated influencing factors but on a combination of factors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intolerance of uncertainty as the vulnerability factor among parents of childhood cancer survivors: A 3-month follow-up study.

PubMed

Vander Haegen, Marie; Etienne, Anne-Marie

2018-05-14

In a 3-month follow-up study, we assessed the intolerance of uncertainty in 61 parents of a childhood cancer survivor. The objective was to compare its prevalence over time. We tested these parents twice i.e., at treatment completion (time 1) and 3 months later (time 2). We hypothesized that this personality factor stayed stable and had aversive effects on cognitive processes. Noticeable intolerance of uncertainty rates were found. At both assessments, results showed that this factor was central in the development of excessive worries, poor problem orientation, rumination, cognitive avoidance and positive beliefs about worry. Repeated measures revealed a decrease for anxiety and cognitive avoidance, and an increased level for somatic symptoms. Parents who are intolerant of uncertainty are at risk to display dysfunctional behaviors over time. Sensitizing health care professionals to the identification of this factor and its associated difficulties is essential for the implementation of efficient intervention strategies.

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

PubMed Central

Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B.; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications. PMID:28545077

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

PubMed

Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

Monocular-Based 6-Degree of Freedom Pose Estimation Technology for Robotic Intelligent Grasping Systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Guo, Yin; Yang, Shourui; Yin, Shibin; Zhu, Jigui

2017-01-01

Industrial robots are expected to undertake ever more advanced tasks in the modern manufacturing industry, such as intelligent grasping, in which robots should be capable of recognizing the position and orientation of a part before grasping it. In this paper, a monocular-based 6-degree of freedom (DOF) pose estimation technology to enable robots to grasp large-size parts at informal poses is proposed. A camera was mounted on the robot end-flange and oriented to measure several featured points on the part before the robot moved to grasp it. In order to estimate the part pose, a nonlinear optimization model based on the camera object space collinearity error in different poses is established, and the initial iteration value is estimated with the differential transformation. Measuring poses of the camera are optimized based on uncertainty analysis. Also, the principle of the robotic intelligent grasping system was developed, with which the robot could adjust its pose to grasp the part. In experimental tests, the part poses estimated with the method described in this paper were compared with those produced by a laser tracker, and results show the RMS angle and position error are about 0.0228° and 0.4603 mm. Robotic intelligent grasping tests were also successfully performed in the experiments. PMID:28216555

Monocular-Based 6-Degree of Freedom Pose Estimation Technology for Robotic Intelligent Grasping Systems.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Guo, Yin; Yang, Shourui; Yin, Shibin; Zhu, Jigui

2017-02-14

Industrial robots are expected to undertake ever more advanced tasks in the modern manufacturing industry, such as intelligent grasping, in which robots should be capable of recognizing the position and orientation of a part before grasping it. In this paper, a monocular-based 6-degree of freedom (DOF) pose estimation technology to enable robots to grasp large-size parts at informal poses is proposed. A camera was mounted on the robot end-flange and oriented to measure several featured points on the part before the robot moved to grasp it. In order to estimate the part pose, a nonlinear optimization model based on the camera object space collinearity error in different poses is established, and the initial iteration value is estimated with the differential transformation. Measuring poses of the camera are optimized based on uncertainty analysis. Also, the principle of the robotic intelligent grasping system was developed, with which the robot could adjust its pose to grasp the part. In experimental tests, the part poses estimated with the method described in this paper were compared with those produced by a laser tracker, and results show the RMS angle and position error are about 0.0228° and 0.4603 mm. Robotic intelligent grasping tests were also successfully performed in the experiments.

3DXRD at the Advanced Photon Source: Orientation Mapping and Deformation Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

statistics in the same sample (Hefferan et al. (2010)). This low orientation uncertainty or error bar might be surprising at first since we do measurements...may be a combination of noise and real gradients. Some of the intra‐ granular  disorder  in  (b)  should  be  interpreted  as  statistical   and  only...cooling (AC), but are not present after ice water quenching (IWQ). The presence of SRO domains is known to lead to planar slip bands during tensile

Positioning sensor by combining optical projection and photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Benrui

Six spatial parameters, (x, y, z) for translation, and pitch, roll, and yaw for rotation, are used to describe the 3-dimensional position and orientation of a rigid body---the 6 degrees of freedom (DOF). The ability to measure these parameters is required in a diverse range of applications including machine tool metrology, robot calibration, motion control, motion analysis, and reconstructive surgery. However, there are limitations associated with the currently available measurement systems. Shortcomings include some of the following: short dynamic range, limited accuracy, line of sight restrictions, and capital cost. The objective of this dissertation was to develop a new metrology system that overcomes line of sight restrictions, reduces system costs, allows large dynamic range and has the potential to provide high measurement accuracy. The new metrology system proposed in this dissertation is based on a combination of photogrammetry and optical pattern projection. This system has the potential to enable real-time measurement of a small lightweight module's location. The module generates an optical pattern that is observable on the surrounding walls, and photogrammetry is used to measure the absolute coordinates of features in the projected optical pattern with respect to a defined global coordinate system. By combining these absolute coordinates with the known angular information of the optical projection beams, a minimization algorithm can be used to extract the absolute coordinates and angular orientation of the module itself. The feasibility of the proposed metrology system was first proved through preliminary experimental tests. By using a module with a 7x7 dot matrix pattern, experimental agreement of 1 to 5 parts in 103 was obtained by translating the module over 0.9 m and by rotating it through 60°. The proposed metrology system was modeled through numerical simulations and factors affecting the uncertainty of the measurement were investigated. The simulation results demonstrate that optimum design of the projected pattern gives a lower associated measurement uncertainty than is possible by direct photogrammetric measurement with traditional tie points alone. Based on the simulation results, a few improvements have been made to the proposed metrology systems. These improvements include using a module with larger full view angle and larger number of dots, performing angle calibration for the module, using a virtual camera approach to determine the module location and employing multiple coordinates system for large range rotation measurement. With the new proposed virtual camera approach, experimental agreement at the level of 3 parts in 104 was observed for the one dimension translation test. The virtual camera approach is faster than the algorithm and an additional minimization analysis is no longer needed. In addition, the virtual camera approach offers an additional benefit that it is no longer necessary to identify all dots in the pattern and so is more amenable to use in realistic and usually complicated environments. A preliminary rotation test over 120° was conducted by tying three coordinate systems together. It was observed that the absolute values of the angle differences between the measured angle and the encoder reading are smaller than 0.23° for all measurements. It is found that this proposed metrology system has the ability to measure larger angle range (up to 360°) by using multiple coordinate systems. The uncertainty analysis of the proposed system was performed through Monte Carlo simulation and it was demonstrated that the experimental results are consistent with the analysis.

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Bakker, Alexander M R; Wong, Tony E; Ruckert, Kelsey L; Keller, Klaus

2017-06-20

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices . Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

Effects of Cultural Orientation on Attitude Toward Anonymity in E-Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yingqin; Liu, Na; Lim, John

The important role of attitude in the acceptance and diffusion of technology has been widely acknowledged. Greater research efforts have been called for examining the relationships between cultural variables and attitude toward technology. In this regard, this study investigates the impact of cultural orientation (focusing on an individual's degree of collectivism) on attitude toward e-collaboration technology. A theoretical model is proposed and subsequently tested using a questionnaire survey involving 236 data points. Self-reliance, competitive success, and group work orientation are found as significant indicators reflecting an individual's degree of collectivism, which in turn influences willingness to participate, evaluation of collaborative effort, and preference for anonymity feature. Subsequently, the three variables are found to affect perceptions about decision quality, enjoyment, uncertainty, and pressure in e-collaboration.

Reusable launch vehicle model uncertainties impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiaye; Mu, Rongjun; Zhang, Xin; Deng, Yanpeng

2018-03-01

Reusable launch vehicle(RLV) has the typical characteristics of complex aerodynamic shape and propulsion system coupling, and the flight environment is highly complicated and intensely changeable. So its model has large uncertainty, which makes the nominal system quite different from the real system. Therefore, studying the influences caused by the uncertainties on the stability of the control system is of great significance for the controller design. In order to improve the performance of RLV, this paper proposes the approach of analyzing the influence of the model uncertainties. According to the typical RLV, the coupling dynamic and kinematics models are built. Then different factors that cause uncertainties during building the model are analyzed and summed up. After that, the model uncertainties are expressed according to the additive uncertainty model. Choosing the uncertainties matrix's maximum singular values as the boundary model, and selecting the uncertainties matrix's norm to show t how much the uncertainty factors influence is on the stability of the control system . The simulation results illustrate that the inertial factors have the largest influence on the stability of the system, and it is necessary and important to take the model uncertainties into consideration before the designing the controller of this kind of aircraft( like RLV, etc).

Kidney organ donation: developing family practice initiatives to reverse inertia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Kidney transplantation is associated with greater long term survival rates and improved quality of life compared with dialysis. Continuous growth in the number of patients with kidney failure has not been matched by an increase in the availability of kidneys for transplantation. This leads to long waiting lists, higher treatment costs and negative health outcomes. Discussion Misunderstandings, public uncertainty and issues of trust in the medical system, that limit willingness to be registered as a potential donor, could be addressed by community dissemination of information and new family practice initiatives that respond to individuals' personal beliefs and concerns regarding organ donation and transplantation. Summary Tackling both personal and public inertia on organ donation is important for any community oriented kidney donation campaign. PMID:20478042

The Family in Value Orientations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lezhnina, Iu. P.

2011-01-01

Russia's declining birth rate is linked to a delay in a family's decision to have children and to uncertainty about the place of children in a couple's relationship. Despite the rise of individualism and the importance of career and self-realization, however, the family retains a very important place in Russian society. (Contains 1 table, 1…

Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

2010-01-01

Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

Sliding Mode Control of the X-33 with an Engine Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shtessel, Yuri B.; Hall, Charles E.

2000-01-01

Ascent flight control of the X-3 is performed using two XRS-2200 linear aerospike engines. in addition to aerosurfaces. The baseline control algorithms are PID with gain scheduling. Flight control using an innovative method. Sliding Mode Control. is presented for nominal and engine failed modes of flight. An easy to implement, robust controller. requiring no reconfiguration or gain scheduling is demonstrated through high fidelity flight simulations. The proposed sliding mode controller utilizes a two-loop structure and provides robust. de-coupled tracking of both orientation angle command profiles and angular rate command profiles in the presence of engine failure, bounded external disturbances (wind gusts) and uncertain matrix of inertia. Sliding mode control causes the angular rate and orientation angle tracking error dynamics to be constrained to linear, de-coupled, homogeneous, and vector valued differential equations with desired eigenvalues. Conditions that restrict engine failures to robustness domain of the sliding mode controller are derived. Overall stability of a two-loop flight control system is assessed. Simulation results show that the designed controller provides robust, accurate, de-coupled tracking of the orientation angle command profiles in the presence of external disturbances and vehicle inertia uncertainties, as well as the single engine failed case. The designed robust controller will significantly reduce the time and cost associated with flying new trajectory profiles or orbits, with new payloads, and with modified vehicles

Sequential geophysical and flow inversion to characterize fracture networks in subsurface systems

DOE PAGES

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia; ...

2017-09-05

Subsurface applications, including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, and oil and gas, typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Fractures form the main pathways for flow in these systems, and locating these fractures is critical for predicting flow. However, fracture characterization is a highly uncertain process, and data from multiple sources, such as flow and geophysical are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We present a nonintrusive, sequential inversion framework for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constrain fracture networks in the subsurface. In this framework, we first estimate bounds on the statistics formore » the fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained using flow data. In conclusion, the efficacy of this inversion is demonstrated through a representative example.« less

Sequential geophysical and flow inversion to characterize fracture networks in subsurface systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia

Subsurface applications, including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, and oil and gas, typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Fractures form the main pathways for flow in these systems, and locating these fractures is critical for predicting flow. However, fracture characterization is a highly uncertain process, and data from multiple sources, such as flow and geophysical are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We present a nonintrusive, sequential inversion framework for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constrain fracture networks in the subsurface. In this framework, we first estimate bounds on the statistics formore » the fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained using flow data. In conclusion, the efficacy of this inversion is demonstrated through a representative example.« less

Turbulent stresses in the surf-zone: Which way is up?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haines, John W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Edge, B.L

1997-01-01

Velocity observations from a vertical stack of three-component Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs) within the energetic surf-zone are presented. Rapid temporal sampling and small sampling volume provide observations suitable for investigation of the role of turbulent fluctuations in surf-zone dynamics. While sensor performance was good, failure to recover reliable measures of tilt from the vertical compromise the data value. We will present some cursory observations supporting the ADV performance, and examine the sensitivity of stress estimates to uncertainty in the sensor orientation. It is well known that turbulent stress estimates are highly sensitive to orientation relative to vertical when wave motions are dominant. Analyses presented examine the potential to use observed flow-field characteristics to constrain sensor orientation. Results show that such an approach may provide a consistent orientation to a fraction of a degree, but the inherent sensitivity of stress estimates requires a still more restrictive constraint. Regardless, the observations indicate the degree to which stress estimates are dependent on orientation, and provide some indication of the temporal variability in time-averaged stress estimates.

Using the in-line component for fixed-wing EM 1D inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiarowski, Adam

2015-09-01

Numerous authors have discussed the utility of multicomponent measurements. Generally speaking, for a vertical-oriented dipole source, the measured vertical component couples to horizontal planar bodies while the horizontal in-line component couples best to vertical planar targets. For layered-earth cases, helicopter EM systems have little or no in-line component response and as a result much of the in-line signal is due to receiver coil rotation and appears as noise. In contrast to this, the in-line component of a fixed-wing airborne electromagnetic (AEM) system with large transmitter-receiver offset can be substantial, exceeding the vertical component in conductive areas. This paper compares the in-line and vertical response of a fixed-wing airborne electromagnetic (AEM) system using a half-space model and calculates sensitivity functions. The a posteriori inversion model parameter uncertainty matrix is calculated for a bathymetry model (conductive layer over more resistive half-space) for two inversion cases; use of vertical component alone is compared to joint inversion of vertical and in-line components. The joint inversion is able to better resolve model parameters. An example is then provided using field data from a bathymetry survey to compare the joint inversion to vertical component only inversion. For each inversion set, the difference between the inverted water depth and ship-measured bathymetry is calculated. The result is in general agreement with that expected from the a posteriori inversion model parameter uncertainty calculation.

Solving Navigational Uncertainty Using Grid Cells on Robots

PubMed Central

Milford, Michael J.; Wiles, Janet; Wyeth, Gordon F.

2010-01-01

To successfully navigate their habitats, many mammals use a combination of two mechanisms, path integration and calibration using landmarks, which together enable them to estimate their location and orientation, or pose. In large natural environments, both these mechanisms are characterized by uncertainty: the path integration process is subject to the accumulation of error, while landmark calibration is limited by perceptual ambiguity. It remains unclear how animals form coherent spatial representations in the presence of such uncertainty. Navigation research using robots has determined that uncertainty can be effectively addressed by maintaining multiple probabilistic estimates of a robot's pose. Here we show how conjunctive grid cells in dorsocaudal medial entorhinal cortex (dMEC) may maintain multiple estimates of pose using a brain-based robot navigation system known as RatSLAM. Based both on rodent spatially-responsive cells and functional engineering principles, the cells at the core of the RatSLAM computational model have similar characteristics to rodent grid cells, which we demonstrate by replicating the seminal Moser experiments. We apply the RatSLAM model to a new experimental paradigm designed to examine the responses of a robot or animal in the presence of perceptual ambiguity. Our computational approach enables us to observe short-term population coding of multiple location hypotheses, a phenomenon which would not be easily observable in rodent recordings. We present behavioral and neural evidence demonstrating that the conjunctive grid cells maintain and propagate multiple estimates of pose, enabling the correct pose estimate to be resolved over time even without uniquely identifying cues. While recent research has focused on the grid-like firing characteristics, accuracy and representational capacity of grid cells, our results identify a possible critical and unique role for conjunctive grid cells in filtering sensory uncertainty. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for animal experiments that test navigation in perceptually ambiguous environments. PMID:21085643

Process compensated resonance testing modeling for damage evolution and uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biedermann, Eric; Heffernan, Julieanne; Mayes, Alexander; Gatewood, Garrett; Jauriqui, Leanne; Goodlet, Brent; Pollock, Tresa; Torbet, Chris; Aldrin, John C.; Mazdiyasni, Siamack

2017-02-01

Process Compensated Resonance Testing (PCRT) is a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method based on the fundamentals of Resonant Ultrasound Spectroscopy (RUS). PCRT is used for material characterization, defect detection, process control and life monitoring of critical gas turbine engine and aircraft components. Forward modeling and model inversion for PCRT have the potential to greatly increase the method's material characterization capability while reducing its dependence on compiling a large population of physical resonance measurements. This paper presents progress on forward modeling studies for damage mechanisms and defects in common to structural materials for gas turbine engines. Finite element method (FEM) models of single crystal (SX) Ni-based superalloy Mar-M247 dog bones and Ti-6Al-4V cylindrical bars were created, and FEM modal analyses calculated the resonance frequencies for the samples in their baseline condition. Then the frequency effects of superalloy creep (high-temperature plastic deformation) and macroscopic texture (preferred crystallographic orientation of grains detrimental to fatigue properties) were evaluated. A PCRT sorting module for creep damage in Mar-M247 was trained with a virtual database made entirely of modeled design points. The sorting module demonstrated successful discrimination of design points with as little as 1% creep strain in the gauge section from a population of acceptable design points with a range of material and geometric variation. The resonance frequency effects of macro-scale texture in Ti-6Al-4V were quantified with forward models of cylinder samples. FEM-based model inversion was demonstrated for Mar-M247 bulk material properties and variations in crystallographic orientation. PCRT uncertainty quantification (UQ) was performed using Monte Carlo studies for Mar-M247 that quantified the overall uncertainty in resonance frequencies resulting from coupled variation in geometry, material properties, crystallographic orientation and creep damage. A model calibration process was also developed that evaluates inversion fitting to differences from a designated reference sample rather than absolute property values, yielding a reduction in fit error.

Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF) for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA) Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources.

PubMed

Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R; Marathe, Amar R; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng

2017-01-01

A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion demonstrates the potential benefits of integrating autonomous systems with BCI systems.

Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF) for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA) Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R.; Marathe, Amar R.; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng

2017-01-01

A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion demonstrates the potential benefits of integrating autonomous systems with BCI systems. PMID:28676734

Characterization of the head-to-trunk orientation with handheld optical 3D apparatus based on the fringe projection technique.

PubMed

Pavlovčič, Urban; Diaci, Janez; Možina, Janez; Jezeršek, Matija

2013-09-26

Knowing the orientation of the head is important in many fields, including medicine. Many methods and measuring systems exist, but usually they use different markers or sensors attached to the subject's head for head orientation determination. In certain applications these attachments may represent a burden or a distraction to the subject under study which may have an unfavourable impact on the measurement. We propose a non-contact optical method for head-to-trunk orientation measurement that does not require any attachments to the subject under study. An innovative handheld 3D apparatus has been developed for non-invasive and fast 3D shape measurements. It is based on the triangulation principle in combination with fringe projection. The shape of the subject's upper trunk and head is reconstructed from a single image using the Fourier transform profilometry method. Two shape measurements are required to determine the head-to-trunk orientation angles: one in the reference (neutral) position and the other one in the position of interest. The algorithm for the head-to-trunk orientation angle extraction is based on the separate alignment of the shape of the subject's upper trunk and head against the corresponding shape in the reference pose. Single factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used for statistical characterisation of the method precision. The method and the 3D apparatus were verified in-vitro using a mannequin and a reference orientation tracker. The uncertainty of the calculated orientation was 2°. During the in-vivo test with a human subject diagnosed with cervical dystonia (aged 60), the repeatability of the measurements was 3°. In-vitro and in-vivo comparison was done on the basis of an experiment with the mannequin and a healthy male (aged 29). These results show that only the difference between flexion/extension measured angles was statistically significant. The differences between means were less than 1° for all ranges. The new non-contact method enables the compensation of the movement of the measuring instrument or the subject's body as a whole, is non-invasive, requires little additional equipment and causes little stress for the subject and operator. We find that it is appropriate for measurements of the head orientation with respect to the trunk for the characterization of the cervical dystonia.

The Saale-Project -A multidisciplinary approach towards sustainable integrative catchment management -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bongartz, K.; Flügel, W. A.

2003-04-01

In the joint research project “Development of an integrated methodology for the sustainable management of river basins The Saale River Basin example”, coordinated by the Centre of Environmental Research (UFZ), concepts and tools for an integrated management of large river basins are developed and applied for the Saale river basin. The ultimate objective of the project is to contribute to the holistic assessment and benchmarking approaches in water resource planning, as required by the European Water Framework Directive. The study presented here deals (1) with the development of a river basin information and modelling system, (2) with the refinement of a regionalisation approach adapted for integrated basin modelling. The approach combines a user friendly basin disaggregation method preserving the catchment’s physiographic heterogeneity with a process oriented hydrological basin assessment for scale bridging integrated modelling. The well tested regional distribution concept of Response Units (RUs) will be enhanced by landscape metrics and decision support tools for objective, scale independent and problem oriented RU delineation to provide the spatial modelling entities for process oriented and distributed simulation of vertical and lateral hydrological transport processes. On basis of this RUs suitable hydrological modelling approaches will be further developed with strong respect to a more detailed simulation of the lateral surface and subsurface flows as well as the channel flow. This methodical enhancement of the well recognised RU-concept will be applied to the river basin of the Saale (Ac: 23 179 km2) and validated by a nested catchment approach, which allows multi-response-validation and estimation of uncertainties of the modelling results. Integrated modelling of such a complex basin strongly influenced by manifold human activities (reservoirs, agriculture, urban areas and industry) can only be achieved by coupling the various modelling approaches within a well defined model framework system. The latter is interactively linked with a sophisticated geo-relational database (DB) serving all research teams involved in the project. This interactive linkage is a core element comprising an object-oriented, internet-based modelling framework system (MFS) for building interdisciplinary modelling applications and offering different analysis and visualisation tools.

Measurement of Single Macromolecule Orientation by Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence Polarization Microscopy

PubMed Central

Forkey, Joseph N.; Quinlan, Margot E.; Goldman, Yale E.

2005-01-01

A new approach is presented for measuring the three-dimensional orientation of individual macromolecules using single molecule fluorescence polarization (SMFP) microscopy. The technique uses the unique polarizations of evanescent waves generated by total internal reflection to excite the dipole moment of individual fluorophores. To evaluate the new SMFP technique, single molecule orientation measurements from sparsely labeled F-actin are compared to ensemble-averaged orientation data from similarly prepared densely labeled F-actin. Standard deviations of the SMFP measurements taken at 40 ms time intervals indicate that the uncertainty for individual measurements of axial and azimuthal angles is ∼10° at 40 ms time resolution. Comparison with ensemble data shows there are no substantial systematic errors associated with the single molecule measurements. In addition to evaluating the technique, the data also provide a new measurement of the torsional rigidity of F-actin. These measurements support the smaller of two values of the torsional rigidity of F-actin previously reported. PMID:15894632

Reactive approach motivation (RAM) for religion.

PubMed

McGregor, Ian; Nash, Kyle; Prentice, Mike

2010-07-01

In 3 experiments, participants reacted with religious zeal to anxious uncertainty threats that have caused reactive approach motivation (RAM) in past research (see McGregor, Nash, Mann, & Phills, 2010, for implicit, explicit, and neural evidence of RAM). In Study 1, results were specific to religious ideals and did not extend to merely superstitious beliefs. Effects were most pronounced among the most anxious and uncertainty-averse participants in Study 1 and among the most approach-motivated participants in Study 2 (i.e., with high Promotion Focus, Behavioral Activation, Action Orientation, and Self-Esteem Scale scores). In Studies 2 and 3, anxious uncertainty threats amplified even the most jingoistic and extreme aspects of religious zeal. In Study 3, reactive religious zeal occurred only among participants who reported feeling disempowered in their everyday goals in life. Results support a RAM view of empowered religious idealism for anxiety management (cf. Armstrong, 2000; Inzlicht, McGregor, Hirsch, & Nash, 2009).

Pole orientation of 16 Psyche by two independent methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, E. F.; Taylor, R. C.

1985-01-01

Nineteen new lightcurves of 16 Psyche are presented along with a pole orientation derived using two independent methods, namely, photometric astrometry and magnitude-amplitude-shape-aspect. The pole orientations found using these two methods agree to within 4 deg. The results from applying photometric astrometry were prograde rotation, a sidereal period of 0.1748143 days + or - 0.0000003 days, and a pole at longitude 223 deg and latitude +37 deg, with an uncertainty of 10 deg, and, from applying magnitude-amplitude-shape-aspect a pole at 220 + or - 1 deg, +40 + or - 4 deg, and a modeled triaxial ellipsoid shape (a greater than b greater than c) and a/b = 1.33 + or - 0.07. The discrepancy between the high-pole latitude found here and the low latitudes reported by Lupishko et al. (1982) and Zhou and Yang (1982) is discussed.

SU-F-J-37: Commissioning a Six Degree of Freedom Couch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, D; Lam, K; Bredfeldt, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: The proper operation of a six degree of freedom couch (6DOFC) to position a patient for treatment requires that a number systems on the treatment unit work together correctly. Commissioning a 6DOFC requires not only the commissioning of each separate system but also commissioning the interactions between the systems. Methods: To commission a 6DOFC, we tested the resolvers that readout the linear and angular positions; the orthogonality of the axes of the laser positioning system, the imaging system, the gantry and the couch as well as their relationship to each other. An automated Winston-Lutz test was used verify themore » coincidence of the origins of the laser system, imaging system and treatment unit. The IsoCal phantom was used to verify the consistency of axes orientations between systems. The operation of the couch and imaging system was verified under simulated load conditions and an end to end test was performed to verify correct operation of the system. Results: The tests on the couch resolvers, orthogonality and coincidence of the axes of each system were successfully completed and showed excellent agreement. The automated Winston-Lutz test showed that the maximum displacement of the center of the radiation field with respect to the isocenter was <0.6 mm (radius) at isocenter. The analysis of the IsoCal phantom showed that the maximum variation of the radiation field with respect to known locations in the phantom was ∼0.9 mm for all the BBs in the phantom. Load tests showed maximum errors of 1 mm. Conclusion: We tested all system associated with the 6DOFC and found the uncertainty due to imaging was <.9mm and the uncertainty due to loading ∼1 mm, resulting in a total error of ∼1.4 mm.« less

Process-oriented Observational Metrics for CMIP6 Climate Model Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

2016-12-01

Observational metrics based on satellite observations have been developed and effectively applied during post-CMIP5 model evaluation and improvement projects. As new physics and parameterizations continue to be included in models for the upcoming CMIP6, it is important to continue objective comparisons between observations and model results. This talk will summarize the process-oriented observational metrics and methodologies for constraining climate models with A-Train satellite observations and support CMIP6 model assessments. We target parameters and processes related to atmospheric clouds and water vapor, which are critically important for Earth's radiative budget, climate feedbacks, and water and energy cycles, and thus reduce uncertainties in climate models.

Overview of Management Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-02-01

theory orients command leadership for the enormous task of managing organizations in our environment fraught with volatility, uncertainty...performance and organizational ethics. A THEORY OF MANAGEMENT BACKGROUND BASIC MANAGEMENT BEHAVIORAL Definitions FUNCTIONS ASPECTS History Planning Leadership ...the best way to manage in their theory of managerial leadership . To them, the 9,9 position on their model, "is acknowledged by managers as the

Methods for Identifying Object Class, Type, and Orientation in the Presence of Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

on Range Finding Techniques for Computer Vision," IEEE Trans. on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intellegence PAMI-5 (2), pp 129-139 March 1983. 15. Yang... Artificial Intelligence Applications, pp 199-205, December 1984. 16. Flynn, P.J. and Jain, A.K.," On Reliable Curvature Estimation, " Proceedings of the

Navy Prototype Optical Interferometer Imaging of Line Emission Regions of Beta Lyrae Using Differential Phase Referencing

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

is polarized by a structure perpendicular to this direction. Another result that confirms this geometry is a radio nebula along p.a. 156◦ ± 4...2000) detected a jetlike nebular structure oriented along p.a. = 156◦.5 ± 4◦. This nebula is perpendicular, within uncertainties, to the orbit

Can the Components of a Cognitive Model Predict the Severity of Generalized Anxiety Disorder?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dugas, Michel J.; Savard, Pierre; Gaudet, Adrienne; Turcotte, Julie; Laugesen, Nina; Robichaud, Melisa; Francis, Kylie; Koerner, Naomi

2007-01-01

Over the past decade, a number of well-controlled studies have supported the validity of a cognitive model of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) that has four main components: intolerance of uncertainty, positive beliefs about worry, negative problem orientation, and cognitive avoidance. Although these studies have shown that the model components…

Embryo futures and stem cell research: the management of informed uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ehrich, Kathryn; Williams, Clare; Farsides, Bobbie; Scott, Rosamund

2012-01-01

In the social worlds of assisted conception and stem cell science, uncertainties proliferate and particular framings of the future may be highly strategic. In this article we explore meanings and articulations of the future using data from our study of ethical and social issues implicated by the donation of embryos to human embryonic stem cell research in three linked assisted conception units and stem cell laboratories in the UK. Framings of the future in this field inform the professional management of uncertainty and we explore some of the tensions this involves in practice. The bifurcation of choices for donating embryos into accepting informed uncertainty or not donating at all was identified through the research process of interviews and ethics discussion groups. Professional staff accounts in this study contained moral orientations that valued ideas such as engendering patient trust by offering full information, the sense of collective ownership of the National Heath Service and publicly funded science and ideas for how donors might be able to give restricted consent as a third option. PMID:21812792

Modelling of the X,Y,Z positioning errors and uncertainty evaluation for the LNE’s mAFM using the Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceria, Paul; Ducourtieux, Sebastien; Boukellal, Younes; Allard, Alexandre; Fischer, Nicolas; Feltin, Nicolas

2017-03-01

In order to evaluate the uncertainty budget of the LNE’s mAFM, a reference instrument dedicated to the calibration of nanoscale dimensional standards, a numerical model has been developed to evaluate the measurement uncertainty of the metrology loop involved in the XYZ positioning of the tip relative to the sample. The objective of this model is to overcome difficulties experienced when trying to evaluate some uncertainty components which cannot be experimentally determined and more specifically, the one linked to the geometry of the metrology loop. The model is based on object-oriented programming and developed under Matlab. It integrates one hundred parameters that allow the control of the geometry of the metrology loop without using analytical formulae. The created objects, mainly the reference and the mobile prism and their mirrors, the interferometers and their laser beams, can be moved and deformed freely to take into account several error sources. The Monte Carlo method is then used to determine the positioning uncertainty of the instrument by randomly drawing the parameters according to their associated tolerances and their probability density functions (PDFs). The whole process follows Supplement 2 to ‘The Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty in Measurement’ (GUM). Some advanced statistical tools like Morris design and Sobol indices are also used to provide a sensitivity analysis by identifying the most influential parameters and quantifying their contribution to the XYZ positioning uncertainty. The approach validated in the paper shows that the actual positioning uncertainty is about 6 nm. As the final objective is to reach 1 nm, we engage in a discussion to estimate the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty.

Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

PubMed

Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

2013-01-01

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

Decision Support Modeling for Water-Use Planning With Sparse Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brainard, J. R.; Williams, A. A.; Tidwell, V. C.

2006-12-01

In the face of the combined impacts of drought and increased water demand in the arid southwest, water resource managers are more frequently being called upon to solve contentious water management issues. Such efforts are often confounded by sparse and inexact data. System dynamics provides a valuable modeling framework to explore pertinent uncertainties and test alternative system conceptualizations. In particular, the quickness of simulations and the object oriented modeling environment allows for efficient investigations into system uncertainty. Through sensitivity studies, the limits of uncertain variables can be determined and the accuracy of the underlying conceptual model can be tested. Here we apply system dynamic modeling to a New Mexico Office of the State Engineer Active Water Resource Management Priority Basin in southwest New Mexico where water managers are faced with developing water allocation plans under drought conditions. The Mimbres River Basin, one of several closed north-south trending structural basins in southwestern New Mexico, has a total drainage area of 13,300 km2 (5,140 mi2), most of which overlies an economically significant aquifer comprised of Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium. The Mimbres River heads in the Black and Los Pinos Mountain Ranges where elevations reach 3,051 m (10,011 ft) above sea level. The river is perennial in a segment of the upper reach where the basin is relatively narrow and where groundwater is limited. In this perennial reach, the Mimbres River is used extensively for agricultural irrigation in which those with senior rights are downstream of those with junior rights. Domestic wells, most of which have junior rights, impact river flow through pumping from the accompanying alluvial aquifer. This modeling effort concentrates on the upper reach of the Mimbres River where continued drought is expected to result in water shortages creating conflicts between water users. Objectives of this effort are 1) to develop a physically based model that can be used by water managers to explore the outcomes of various water management scenarios under a full spectrum of hydrologic conditions and social demands placed on the system, and 2) to identify significant data gaps and uncertainty that impacts the ability to make sound science-based water management decisions, and 3) to evaluate how uncertainties should be communicated and addressed in the planning process. The model uses physically based calculations to explore relationships between climate and other variables of interest such as vegetative water consumption from riparian communities and agriculture crops and to explore climate driven impacts on surface and ground water availability.

Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty has been a major theme in research regarding climate change from virtually the very beginning. And appropriately characterizing and quantifying uncertainty has been an important aspect of this work. Initially, uncertainties were explored regarding the climate system and how it would react to future forcing. A concomitant area of concern was viewed in the future emissions and concentrations of important forcing agents such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. But, of course we know there are important uncertainties in all aspects of climate change research, not just that of the climate system and emissions. And as climate change research has become more important and of pragmatic concern as possible solutions to the climate change problem are addressed, exploring all the relevant uncertainties has become more relevant and urgent. More recently, over the past five years or so, uncertainties in impacts models, such as agricultural and hydrological models, have received much more attention, through programs such as AgMIP, and some research in this arena has indicated that the uncertainty in the impacts models can be as great or greater than that in the climate system. Still there remains other areas of uncertainty that remain underexplored and/or undervalued. This includes uncertainty in vulnerability and governance. Without more thoroughly exploring these last uncertainties, we likely will underestimate important uncertainties particularly regarding how different systems can successfully adapt to climate change . In this talk I will discuss these different uncertainties and how to combine them to give a complete picture of the total uncertainty individual systems are facing. And as part of this, I will discuss how the uncertainty can be successfully managed even if it is fairly large and deep. Part of my argument will be that large uncertainty is not the enemy, but rather false certainty is the true danger.

Accounting for uncertainty in the quantification of the environmental impacts of Canadian pig farming systems.

PubMed

Mackenzie, S G; Leinonen, I; Ferguson, N; Kyriazakis, I

2015-06-01

The objective of the study was to develop a life cycle assessment (LCA) for pig farming systems that would account for uncertainty and variability in input data and allow systematic environmental impact comparisons between production systems. The environmental impacts of commercial pig production for 2 regions in Canada (Eastern and Western) were compared using a cradle-to-farm gate LCA. These systems had important contrasting characteristics such as typical feed ingredients used, herd performance, and expected emission factors from manure management. The study used detailed production data supplied by the industry and incorporated uncertainty/variation in all major aspects of the system including life cycle inventory data for feed ingredients, animal performance, energy inputs, and emission factors. The impacts were defined using 5 metrics-global warming potential, acidification potential, eutrophication potential (EP), abiotic resource use, and nonrenewable energy use-and were expressed per kilogram carcass weight at farm gate. Eutrophication potential was further separated into marine EP (MEP) and freshwater EP (FEP). Uncertainties in the model inputs were separated into 2 types: uncertainty in the data used to describe the system (α uncertainties) and uncertainty in impact calculations or background data that affects all systems equally (β uncertainties). The impacts of pig production in the 2 regions were systematically compared based on the differences in the systems (α uncertainties). The method of ascribing uncertainty influenced the outcomes. In eastern systems, EP, MEP, and FEP were lower (P < 0.05) when assuming that all uncertainty in the emission factors for leaching from manure application was β. This was mainly due to increased EP resulting from field emissions for typical ingredients in western diets. When uncertainty in these emission factors was assumed to be α, only FEP was lower in eastern systems (P < 0.05). The environmental impacts for the other impact categories were not significantly different between the 2 systems, despite their aforementioned differences. In conclusion, a probabilistic approach was used to develop an LCA that systematically dealt with uncertainty in the data when comparing multiple environmental impacts measures in pig farming systems for the first time. The method was used to identify differences between Canadian pig production systems but can also be applied for comparisons between other agricultural systems that include inherent variation.

Seismic velocity uncertainties and their effect on geothermal predictions: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbel, Wolfgang; Köhn, Daniel; Bahadur Motra, Hem; Niederau, Jan; Thorwart, Martin; Wuttke, Frank; Descramble Working Group

2017-04-01

Geothermal exploration relies in large parts on geophysical subsurface models derived from seismic reflection profiling. These models are the framework of hydro-geothermal modeling, which further requires estimating thermal and hydraulic parameters to be attributed to the seismic strata. All petrophysical and structural properties involved in this process can be determined only with limited accuracy and thus impose uncertainties onto the resulting model predictions of temperature-depth profiles and hydraulic flow, too. In the present study we analyze sources and effects of uncertainties of the seismic velocity field, which translate directly into depth uncertainties of the hydraulically and thermally relevant horizons. Geological sources of these uncertainties are subsurface heterogeneity and seismic anisotropy, methodical sources are limitations in spread length and physical resolution. We demonstrate these effects using data of the EU-Horizon 2020 project DESCRAMBLE investigating a shallow super-critical geothermal reservoir in the Larderello area. The study is based on 2D- and 3D seismic reflection data and laboratory measurements on representative rock samples under simulated in-situ conditions. The rock samples consistently show P-wave anisotropy values of 10-20% order of magnitude. However, the uncertainty of layer depths induced by anisotropy is likely to be lower depending on the accuracy, with which the spatial orientation of bedding planes can be determined from the seismic reflection images.

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold

2016-01-01

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis of the ZEM-3 Measurement System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

The measurement of Seebeck coefficient and electrical resistivity are critical to the investigation of all thermoelectric systems. Therefore, it stands that the measurement uncertainty must be well understood to report ZT values which are accurate and trustworthy. A detailed uncertainty analysis of the ZEM-3 measurement system has been performed. The uncertainty analysis calculates error in the electrical resistivity measurement as a result of sample geometry tolerance, probe geometry tolerance, statistical error, and multi-meter uncertainty. The uncertainty on Seebeck coefficient includes probe wire correction factors, statistical error, multi-meter uncertainty, and most importantly the cold-finger effect. The cold-finger effect plagues all potentiometric (four-probe) Seebeck measurement systems, as heat parasitically transfers through thermocouple probes. The effect leads to an asymmetric over-estimation of the Seebeck coefficient. A thermal finite element analysis allows for quantification of the phenomenon, and provides an estimate on the uncertainty of the Seebeck coefficient. The thermoelectric power factor has been found to have an uncertainty of +9-14 at high temperature and 9 near room temperature.

Uncertainty relation for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tarasov, Vasily E.

2013-01-15

General forms of uncertainty relations for quantum observables of non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered. Special cases of uncertainty relations are discussed. The uncertainty relations for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered in the Schroedinger-Robertson form since it allows us to take into account Lie-Jordan algebra of quantum observables. In uncertainty relations, the time dependence of quantum observables and the properties of this dependence are discussed. We take into account that a time evolution of observables of a non-Hamiltonian quantum system is not an endomorphism with respect to Lie, Jordan, and associative multiplications.

Sexual-orientation disparities in school: the mediational role of indicators of victimization in achievement and truancy because of feeling unsafe.

PubMed

Birkett, Michelle; Russell, Stephen T; Corliss, Heather L

2014-06-01

We examined sexual-orientation identity disparities in truancy and academic achievement, and the mediational role of victimization in a large high-school sample. We utilized pooled data, measuring sexual identity, from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavioral Surveillance System Surveys. Multilevel logistic regression modeling estimated the odds of low grades and truancy because of feeling unsafe comparing lesbian/gay, bisexual, (LGB) and unsure students to heterosexuals. We stratified models by gender. Indicators of victimization were examined to mediate the relationship between identifying as a sexual minority and school achievement or truancy. LGB-identified youths reported significantly elevated odds of truancy and low grades (odds ratios = 1.6-3.2; all P < .05). Additionally, both genders noting uncertainty about their sexual identity showed increased odds of truancy. Victimization indicators mediated the relationship between identifying as a sexual minority and experiencing negative school outcomes, with greater victimization indicators being associated with increased truancy and lower grades, and the extent of mediation differed by gender. As early disparities in academic achievement and school engagement have indicated a lifetime of increased health and behavioral risk factors, early intervention targeting school victimization is necessary.

Determining OBS Instrument Orientations: A Comparison of Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, A. K.; Laske, G.

2015-12-01

The alignment of the orientation of the horizontal seismometer components with the geographical coordinate system is critical for a wide variety of seismic analyses, but the traditional deployment method of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) precludes knowledge of this parameter. Current techniques for determining the orientation predominantly rely on body and surface wave data recorded from teleseismic events with sufficiently large magnitudes. Both wave types experience lateral refraction between the source and receiver as a result of heterogeneity and anisotropy, and therefore the arrival angle of any one phase can significantly deviate from the great circle minor arc. We systematically compare the results and uncertainties obtained through current determination methods, as well as describe a new algorithm that uses body wave, surface wave, and differential pressure gauge data (where available) to invert for horizontal orientation. To start with, our method is based on the easily transportable computer code of Stachnik et al. (2012) that is publicly available through IRIS. A major addition is that we utilize updated global dispersion maps to account for lateral refraction, as was done by Laske (1995). We also make measurements in a wide range of frequencies, and analyze surface wave trains of repeat orbits. Our method has the advantage of requiring fewer total events to achieve high precision estimates, which is beneficial for OBS deployments that can be as short as weeks. Although the program is designed for the purpose of use with OBS instruments, it also works with standard land installations. We intend to provide the community with a program that is easy to use, requires minimal user input, and is optimized to work with data cataloged at the IRIS DMC.

Effect of a brief cognitive behavioural intervention on criminal thinking and prison misconduct in male inmates: Variable-oriented and person-oriented analyses.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2017-12-01

There is some consensus on the value of cognitive-behaviourally informed interventions in the criminal justice system, but uncertainty about which components are of critical value. To test the hypothesis that change in prisoners - criminal thinking and institutional misconduct - will both follow completion of a brief cognitive behavioural intervention. A one-group pre-test-post-test quasi-experimental design was used to assess change on the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) scale of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles among 219 male prisoners completing a 10-week cognitive behavioural intervention, referred to as 'Lifestyle Issues'. Institutional misconduct was measured for 1 year prior to completion of the course and 2 years subsequently. Using variable-oriented analysis, post-test GCT scores were compared with change in prison conduct, controlling for the pre-test thinking scores. Calculations were repeated by using person-oriented analysis. Prisoners who displayed a drop in GCT scores between pre-test and post-test levels were significantly more likely to show a reduction in prison misconduct, whereas prison misconduct was likely to escalate among those who displayed a rise in criminal thinking scores from pre-test to post-test. These findings must still be regarded as preliminary, but taken together with other work and with cognitive behavioural theory, they suggest that development of more prosocial thinking and abilities may have an early beneficial effect on institutional behaviour. Their measurement may offer a practical way in which men could be assessed for readiness to return to the community. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adaptive Delta Management: cultural aspects of dealing with uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Hermans, Leon; Kwakkel, Jan

2016-04-01

Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives. This multi-faceted dynamic character of delta areas warrants the emergence of a branch of applied adaptation science, Adaptive Delta Management, which explicitly focuses on climate adaptation of such highly dynamic and deeply uncertain systems. The application of Adaptive Delta Management in the Dutch Delta Program and its active international dissemination by Dutch professionals results in the rapid dissemination of Adaptive Delta Management to deltas worldwide. This global dissemination raises concerns among professionals in delta management on its applicability in deltas with cultural conditions and historical developments quite different from those found in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom where the practices now labelled as Adaptive Delta Management first emerged. This research develops an approach and gives a first analysis of the interaction between the characteristics of different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management and their alignment with the cultural conditions encountered in various delta's globally. In this analysis, first different management theories underlying approaches to Adaptive Delta Management as encountered in both scientific and professional publications are identified and characterized on three dimensions: The characteristics dimensions used are: orientation on today, orientation on the future, and decision making (Timmermans, 2015). The different underlying management theories encountered are policy analysis, strategic management, transition management, and adaptive management. These four management theories underlying different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management are connected to Hofstede's (1983) cultural dimensions, of which uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation are of particular relevance for our analysis. Our conclusions comment on the suitability of approaches in Adaptive Delta Management rooted in different management theories are more suitable for specific delta countries than others. The most striking conclusion is the unsuitability of rational policy analytic approaches for The Netherlands. Although surprising this conclusion finds some support in the process dominated approach taken in the Dutch Delta Program. In addition, the divergence between Vietnam, Bangladesh and Myanmar, all located in South East Asia, is striking. References Hofstede, G. (1983). The cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories. Journal of international business studies, 75-89. Jos Timmermans, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Leon Hermans, Jan Kwakkel, Martine Rutten and Wil Thissen (2015). Adaptive Delta Management: Roots and Branches, IAHR The Hague 2015.

Finance organizations, decisions and emotions.

PubMed

Pixley, Jocelyn

2002-03-01

Analyses of global financial markets are dominated by atomized models of decision-making and behavioural psychology ('exuberance' or 'panic'). In contrast, this paper argues that overwhelmingly, finance organizations rather than 'individuals' make decisions, and routinely use emotions in formulating expectations. Keynes introduced emotion (business confidence and animal spirits) but in economics, emotion remains individualistic and irrational. Luhmann's system theory lies at the other extreme, where emotions like trust and confidence are central variables, functional in the reduction of complexity in sub-systems like the economy. The gap between irrational emotions aggregated to 'herd' behaviour in economics, and 'system trust' applied to finance and money as a 'medium of communication' in sociology, remains largely unfilled. This paper argues that while organizations cannot be said to 'think' or 'feel', they are rational and emotional, because impersonal trust, confidence and their contrary emotions are unavoidable in decision-making due to fundamental uncertainty. These future-oriented emotions are prevalent within and between organizations in the financial sector, primarily in generating expectations. The dynamic of corporate activities of tense and ruthless struggle is a more plausible level of analysis than either financial 'manias' in aggregate or 'system trust'.

How much can we trust a geological model underlying a subsurface hydrological investigation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellmann, Florian; de la Varga, Miguel; Schaaf, Alexander; Burs, David

2017-04-01

Geological models often provide an important basis for subsequent hydrological investigations. As these models are generally built with a limited amount of information, they can contain significant uncertainties - and it is reasonable to assume that these uncertainties can potentially influence subsequent hydrological simulations. However, the investigation of uncertainties in geological models is not straightforward - and, even though recent advances have been made in the field, there is no out-of-the-box implementation to analyze uncertainties in a standard geological modeling package. We present here results of recent developments to address this problem with an efficient implementation of a geological modeling method for complex structural models, integrated in a Bayesian inference framework. The implemented geological modeling approach is based on a full 3-D implicit interpolation that directly respects interface positions and orientation measurements, as well as the influence of faults. In combination, the approach allows us to generate ensembles of geological model realizations, constrained by additional information in the form of likelihood functions to ensure consistency with additional geological aspects (e.g. sequence continuity, topology, fault network consistency), and we demonstrate the potential of the method in an exemplified case study. With this approach, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the influence of geological uncertainties on subsurface hydrological investigations.

Information mining in remote sensing imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang

The volume of remotely sensed imagery continues to grow at an enormous rate due to the advances in sensor technology, and our capability for collecting and storing images has greatly outpaced our ability to analyze and retrieve information from the images. This motivates us to develop image information mining techniques, which is very much an interdisciplinary endeavor drawing upon expertise in image processing, databases, information retrieval, machine learning, and software design. This dissertation proposes and implements an extensive remote sensing image information mining (ReSIM) system prototype for mining useful information implicitly stored in remote sensing imagery. The system consists of three modules: image processing subsystem, database subsystem, and visualization and graphical user interface (GUI) subsystem. Land cover and land use (LCLU) information corresponding to spectral characteristics is identified by supervised classification based on support vector machines (SVM) with automatic model selection, while textural features that characterize spatial information are extracted using Gabor wavelet coefficients. Within LCLU categories, textural features are clustered using an optimized k-means clustering approach to acquire search efficient space. The clusters are stored in an object-oriented database (OODB) with associated images indexed in an image database (IDB). A k-nearest neighbor search is performed using a query-by-example (QBE) approach. Furthermore, an automatic parametric contour tracing algorithm and an O(n) time piecewise linear polygonal approximation (PLPA) algorithm are developed for shape information mining of interesting objects within the image. A fuzzy object-oriented database based on the fuzzy object-oriented data (FOOD) model is developed to handle the fuzziness and uncertainty. Three specific applications are presented: integrated land cover and texture pattern mining, shape information mining for change detection of lakes, and fuzzy normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) pattern mining. The study results show the effectiveness of the proposed system prototype and the potentials for other applications in remote sensing.

Developing instruments concerning scientific epistemic beliefs and goal orientations in learning science: a validation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzung-Jin; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate two survey instruments to evaluate high school students' scientific epistemic beliefs and goal orientations in learning science. The initial relationships between the sampled students' scientific epistemic beliefs and goal orientations in learning science were also investigated. A final valid sample of 600 volunteer Taiwanese high school students participated in this survey by responding to the Scientific Epistemic Beliefs Instrument (SEBI) and the Goal Orientations in Learning Science Instrument (GOLSI). Through both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, the SEBI and GOLSI were proven to be valid and reliable for assessing the participants' scientific epistemic beliefs and goal orientations in learning science. The path analysis results indicated that, by and large, the students with more sophisticated epistemic beliefs in various dimensions such as Development of Knowledge, Justification for Knowing, and Purpose of Knowing tended to adopt both Mastery-approach and Mastery-avoidance goals. Some interesting results were also found. For example, the students tended to set a learning goal to outperform others or merely demonstrate competence (Performance-approach) if they had more informed epistemic beliefs in the dimensions of Multiplicity of Knowledge, Uncertainty of Knowledge, and Purpose of Knowing.

A Dictionary Approach to Electron Backscatter Diffraction Indexing.

PubMed

Chen, Yu H; Park, Se Un; Wei, Dennis; Newstadt, Greg; Jackson, Michael A; Simmons, Jeff P; De Graef, Marc; Hero, Alfred O

2015-06-01

We propose a framework for indexing of grain and subgrain structures in electron backscatter diffraction patterns of polycrystalline materials. We discretize the domain of a dynamical forward model onto a dense grid of orientations, producing a dictionary of patterns. For each measured pattern, we identify the most similar patterns in the dictionary, and identify boundaries, detect anomalies, and index crystal orientations. The statistical distribution of these closest matches is used in an unsupervised binary decision tree (DT) classifier to identify grain boundaries and anomalous regions. The DT classifies a pattern as an anomaly if it has an abnormally low similarity to any pattern in the dictionary. It classifies a pixel as being near a grain boundary if the highly ranked patterns in the dictionary differ significantly over the pixel's neighborhood. Indexing is accomplished by computing the mean orientation of the closest matches to each pattern. The mean orientation is estimated using a maximum likelihood approach that models the orientation distribution as a mixture of Von Mises-Fisher distributions over the quaternionic three sphere. The proposed dictionary matching approach permits segmentation, anomaly detection, and indexing to be performed in a unified manner with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification.

Considering Object Oriented Technology in Aviation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayhurst, Kelly J.; Holloway, C. Michael

2003-01-01

Few developers of commercial aviation software products are using object-oriented technology (OOT), despite its popularity in some other industries. Safety concerns about using OOT in critical applications, uncertainty about how to comply with regulatory requirements, and basic conservatism within the aviation community have been factors behind this caution. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have sponsored research to investigate and workshops to discuss safety and certification concerns about OOT and to develop recommendations for safe use. Two Object Oriented Technology in Aviation (OOTiA) workshops have been held and numerous issues and comments about the effect of OOT features and languages have been collected. This paper gives a high level overview of the OOTiA project, and discusses selected specific results from the March 2003 workshop. In particular, results in the form of questions to consider before making the decision to use OOT are presented.

Transition to adult-oriented health care: perspectives of youth and adults with complex physical disabilities.

PubMed

Young, Nancy L; Barden, Wendy S; Mills, Wendy A; Burke, Tricia A; Law, Mary; Boydell, Katherine

2009-01-01

The transition to adulthood is extremely difficult for individuals with disabilities. We sought to explore the specific issue of transition to adult-oriented health care in a Canadian context. We conducted semi-structured individual interviews with 15 youth and 15 adults with cerebral palsy, spina bifida, and acquired brain injuries of childhood, and their parents (n = 30). Respondents discussed their health care services, their experience with clinical transition, and contributing factors. We analyzed the transcripts using qualitative methods. All participants identified challenges in transition, including: lack of access to health care; lack of professionals' knowledge; lack of information and uncertainty regarding the transition process. Two solutions were identified: early provision of detailed information and more extensive support throughout the clinical transition process. The challenges of clinical transition were universal. More extensive information and support is needed during transition to ensure an efficient move to appropriate adult-oriented health care.

Effect of Gravity on Surface Tension

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weislogel, M. M.; Azzam, M. O. J.; Mann, J. A.

1998-01-01

Spectroscopic measurements of liquid-vapor interfaces are made in +/- 1-g environments to note the effect of gravity on surface tension. A slight increase is detected at -1-g0, but is arguably within the uncertainty of the measurement technique. An increased dependence of surface tension on the orientation and magnitude of the gravitational vector is anticipated as the critical point is approached.

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, David W.; Uebelhart, Scott A.; Blaurock, Carl

2004-01-01

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

Applying CBR to machine tool product configuration design oriented to customer requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pengjia; Gong, Yadong; Xie, Hualong; Liu, Yongxian; Nee, Andrew Yehching

2017-01-01

Product customization is a trend in the current market-oriented manufacturing environment. However, deduction from customer requirements to design results and evaluation of design alternatives are still heavily reliant on the designer's experience and knowledge. To solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of customer requirements in product configuration, an analysis method based on the grey rough model is presented. The customer requirements can be converted into technical characteristics effectively. In addition, an optimization decision model for product planning is established to help the enterprises select the key technical characteristics under the constraints of cost and time to serve the customer to maximal satisfaction. A new case retrieval approach that combines the self-organizing map and fuzzy similarity priority ratio method is proposed in case-based design. The self-organizing map can reduce the retrieval range and increase the retrieval efficiency, and the fuzzy similarity priority ratio method can evaluate the similarity of cases comprehensively. To ensure that the final case has the best overall performance, an evaluation method of similar cases based on grey correlation analysis is proposed to evaluate similar cases to select the most suitable case. Furthermore, a computer-aided system is developed using MATLAB GUI to assist the product configuration design. The actual example and result on an ETC series machine tool product show that the proposed method is effective, rapid and accurate in the process of product configuration. The proposed methodology provides a detailed instruction for the product configuration design oriented to customer requirements.

Strategic orientations of small multihospital systems.

PubMed Central

Luke, R D; Begun, J W

1988-01-01

Strategic behaviors of organizations can be classified along two dimensions--growth orientations, or patterns of evolution over time, and action orientations, or strategic aggressiveness in undertaking a particular growth orientation. We create measures of growth and action orientations for small multihospital systems and test the validity of the growth and action orientation typologies, using data from a sample of small multihospital systems. Growth and action orientations do appear to exist independently of each other, and they are related to the ownership status of the systems. Not-for-profit and church-other systems exhibit similar strategic orientations, unlike those of Catholic and investor-owned systems. PMID:3060448

Uncertainties in the deprojection of the observed bar properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Yanfei; Shen, Juntai; Li, Zhao-Yu, E-mail: jshen@shao.ac.cn

2014-08-10

In observations, it is important to deproject the two fundamental quantities characterizing a bar, i.e., its length (a) and ellipticity (e), to face-on values before any careful analyses. However, systematic estimation on the uncertainties of the commonly used deprojection methods is still lacking. Simulated galaxies are well suited in this study. We project two simulated barred galaxies onto a two-dimensional (2D) plane with different bar orientations and disk inclination angles (i). Bar properties are measured and deprojected with the popular deprojection methods in the literature. Generally speaking, deprojection uncertainties increase with increasing i. All of the deprojection methods behave badlymore » when i is larger than 60°, due to the vertical thickness of the bar. Thus, future statistical studies of barred galaxies should exclude galaxies more inclined than 60°. At moderate inclination angles (i ≤ 60°), 2D deprojection methods (analytical and image stretching), and Fourier-based methods (Fourier decomposition and bar-interbar contrast) perform reasonably well with uncertainties ∼10% in both the bar length and ellipticity, whereas the uncertainties of the one-dimensional (1D) analytical deprojection can be as high as 100% in certain extreme cases. We find that different bar measurement methods show systematic differences in the deprojection uncertainties. We further discuss the deprojection uncertainty factors with the emphasis on the most important one, i.e., the three-dimensional structure of the bar itself. We construct two triaxial toy bar models that can qualitatively reproduce the results of the 1D and 2D analytical deprojections; they confirm that the vertical thickness of the bar is the main source of uncertainties.« less

Seeing the world in black and white: the effects of perceptually induced mind-sets on judgment.

PubMed

Sleeth-Keppler, David

2007-09-01

Three experiments examined the notion that rudimentary perceptual experiences can serve as powerful guides to judgments under uncertainty. The results show that exposure to certain perceptual contrast patterns can influence the direction of bias without conscious awareness. In Experiment 1a, perception of alternating black and white squares, which served as orientation markers in a lexical decision task, resulted in a reduction of the well-known anchoring bias. Similar results were obtained when alternating high- and low-pitch tones were the orientation markers (Experiment 1b). Results of a final experiment provide evidence that perceptual contrast experiences can affect judgment-relevant representations across modalities.

A Bayes network approach to uncertainty quantification in hierarchically developed computational models

DOE PAGES

Urbina, Angel; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Paez, Thomas L.

2012-03-01

Here, performance assessment of complex systems is ideally accomplished through system-level testing, but because they are expensive, such tests are seldom performed. On the other hand, for economic reasons, data from tests on individual components that are parts of complex systems are more readily available. The lack of system-level data leads to a need to build computational models of systems and use them for performance prediction in lieu of experiments. Because their complexity, models are sometimes built in a hierarchical manner, starting with simple components, progressing to collections of components, and finally, to the full system. Quantification of uncertainty inmore » the predicted response of a system model is required in order to establish confidence in the representation of actual system behavior. This paper proposes a framework for the complex, but very practical problem of quantification of uncertainty in system-level model predictions. It is based on Bayes networks and uses the available data at multiple levels of complexity (i.e., components, subsystem, etc.). Because epistemic sources of uncertainty were shown to be secondary, in this application, aleatoric only uncertainty is included in the present uncertainty quantification. An example showing application of the techniques to uncertainty quantification of measures of response of a real, complex aerospace system is included.« less

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Prognostics and Condition-Based Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty quantification in prognostics in the context of condition-based monitoring of aerospace systems. The different sources of uncertainty and the various uncertainty quantification activities in condition-based prognostics are outlined in detail, and it is demonstrated that the Bayesian subjective approach is suitable for interpreting uncertainty in online monitoring. A state-space model-based framework for prognostics, that can rigorously account for the various sources of uncertainty, is presented. Prognostics consists of two important steps. First, the state of the system is estimated using Bayesian tracking, and then, the future states of the system are predicted until failure, thereby computing the remaining useful life of the system. The proposed framework is illustrated using the power system of a planetary rover test-bed, which is being developed and studied at NASA Ames Research Center.

Robustness of Flexible Systems With Component-Level Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maghami, Peiman G.

2000-01-01

Robustness of flexible systems in the presence of model uncertainties at the component level is considered. Specifically, an approach for formulating robustness of flexible systems in the presence of frequency and damping uncertainties at the component level is presented. The synthesis of the components is based on a modifications of a controls-based algorithm for component mode synthesis. The formulation deals first with robustness of synthesized flexible systems. It is then extended to deal with global (non-synthesized ) dynamic models with component-level uncertainties by projecting uncertainties from component levels to system level. A numerical example involving a two-dimensional simulated docking problem is worked out to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Liguori, S.; Schellart, A. N. A.

2015-09-01

This work presents the results of the implementation of a probabilistic system to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall (RR) estimates and the way this uncertainty propagates through the sewer system of an urban area located in the North of England. The spatial and temporal correlations of the RR errors as well as the error covariance matrix were computed to build a RR error model able to generate RR ensembles that reproduce the uncertainty associated with the measured rainfall. The results showed that the RR ensembles provide important information about the uncertainty in the rainfall measurement that can be propagated in the urban sewer system. The results showed that the measured flow peaks and flow volumes are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the RR ensembles. In 55% of the simulated events, the uncertainties in RR measurements can explain the uncertainties observed in the simulated flow volumes. However, there are also some events where the RR uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty observed in the simulated flow volumes indicating that there are additional sources of uncertainty that must be considered such as the uncertainty in the urban drainage model structure, the uncertainty in the urban drainage model calibrated parameters, and the uncertainty in the measured sewer flows.

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Boyd, James W.; Macauley, Molly K.; Scarlett, Lynn; Shapiro, Carl D.; Williams, Byron K.

2018-05-07

Executive Summary—OverviewNatural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans.This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts.Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty.Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually.Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions:How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation?How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice?What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services?And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

Monte Carlo simulation of the dose response of a novel 2D silicon diode array for use in hybrid MRI-LINAC systems.

PubMed

Gargett, Maegan; Oborn, Brad; Metcalfe, Peter; Rosenfeld, Anatoly

2015-02-01

MRI-guided radiation therapy systems (MRIgRT) are being developed to improve online imaging during treatment delivery. At present, the operation of single point dosimeters and an ionization chamber array have been characterized in such systems. This work investigates a novel 2D diode array, named "magic plate," for both single point calibration and 2D positional performance, the latter being a key element of modern radiotherapy techniques that will be delivered by these systems. geant4 Monte Carlo methods have been employed to study the dose response of a silicon diode array to 6 MV photon beams, in the presence of in-line and perpendicularly aligned uniform magnetic fields. The array consists of 121 silicon diodes (dimensions 1.5 × 1.5 × 0.38 mm(3)) embedded in kapton substrate with 1 cm pitch, spanning a 10 × 10 cm(2) area in total. A geometrically identical, water equivalent volume was simulated concurrently for comparison. The dose response of the silicon diode array was assessed for various photon beam field shapes and sizes, including an IMRT field, at 1 T. The dose response was further investigated at larger magnetic field strengths (1.5 and 3 T) for a 4 × 4 cm(2) photon field size. The magic plate diode array shows excellent correspondence (< ± 1%) to water dose in the in-line orientation, for all beam arrangements and magnetic field strengths investigated. The perpendicular orientation, however, exhibits a dose shift with respect to water at the high-dose-gradient beam edge of jaw-defined fields [maximum (4.3 ± 0.8)% over-response, maximum (1.8 ± 0.8)% under-response on opposing side for 1 T, uncertainty 1σ]. The trend is not evident in areas with in-field dose gradients typical of IMRT dose maps. A novel 121 pixel silicon diode array detector has been characterized by Monte Carlo simulation for its performance inside magnetic fields representative of current prototype and proposed MRI-linear accelerator systems. In the in-line orientation, the silicon dose is directly proportional to the water dose. In the perpendicular orientation, there is a shift in dose response relative to water in the highest dose gradient regions, at the edge of jaw-defined and single-segment MLC fields. The trend was not observed in-field for an IMRT beam. The array is expected to be a valuable tool in MRIgRT dosimetry.

Monte Carlo simulation of the dose response of a novel 2D silicon diode array for use in hybrid MRI–LINAC systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gargett, Maegan, E-mail: mg406@uowmail.edu.au; Rosenfeld, Anatoly; Oborn, Brad

2015-02-15

Purpose: MRI-guided radiation therapy systems (MRIgRT) are being developed to improve online imaging during treatment delivery. At present, the operation of single point dosimeters and an ionization chamber array have been characterized in such systems. This work investigates a novel 2D diode array, named “magic plate,” for both single point calibration and 2D positional performance, the latter being a key element of modern radiotherapy techniques that will be delivered by these systems. Methods: GEANT4 Monte Carlo methods have been employed to study the dose response of a silicon diode array to 6 MV photon beams, in the presence of in-linemore » and perpendicularly aligned uniform magnetic fields. The array consists of 121 silicon diodes (dimensions 1.5 × 1.5 × 0.38 mm{sup 3}) embedded in kapton substrate with 1 cm pitch, spanning a 10 × 10 cm{sup 2} area in total. A geometrically identical, water equivalent volume was simulated concurrently for comparison. The dose response of the silicon diode array was assessed for various photon beam field shapes and sizes, including an IMRT field, at 1 T. The dose response was further investigated at larger magnetic field strengths (1.5 and 3 T) for a 4 × 4 cm{sup 2} photon field size. Results: The magic plate diode array shows excellent correspondence (< ± 1%) to water dose in the in-line orientation, for all beam arrangements and magnetic field strengths investigated. The perpendicular orientation, however, exhibits a dose shift with respect to water at the high-dose-gradient beam edge of jaw-defined fields [maximum (4.3 ± 0.8)% over-response, maximum (1.8 ± 0.8)% under-response on opposing side for 1 T, uncertainty 1σ]. The trend is not evident in areas with in-field dose gradients typical of IMRT dose maps. Conclusions: A novel 121 pixel silicon diode array detector has been characterized by Monte Carlo simulation for its performance inside magnetic fields representative of current prototype and proposed MRI–linear accelerator systems. In the in-line orientation, the silicon dose is directly proportional to the water dose. In the perpendicular orientation, there is a shift in dose response relative to water in the highest dose gradient regions, at the edge of jaw-defined and single-segment MLC fields. The trend was not observed in-field for an IMRT beam. The array is expected to be a valuable tool in MRIgRT dosimetry.« less

A persuasive concept of research-oriented teaching in Soil Biochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia; Kuzyakova, Irina

2013-04-01

One of the main problems of existing bachelor programs is disconnection of basic and experimental education: even during practical training the methods learned are not related to characterization of soil field experiments and observed soil processes. We introduce a multi-level research-oriented teaching system involving Bachelor students in four-semesters active study by integration the basic knowledge, experimental techniques, statistical approaches, project design and it's realization.The novelty of research-oriented teaching system is based 1) on linkage of ongoing experiment to the study of statistical methods and 2) on self-responsibility of students for interpretation of soil chemical and biochemical characteristics obtained in the very beginning of their study by analysing the set of soil samples allowing full-factorial data treatment. This experimental data set is related to specific soil stand and is used as a backbone of the teaching system accelerating the student's interest to soil studies and motivating them for application of basic knowledge from lecture courses. The multi-level system includes: 1) basic lecture course on soil biochemistry with analysis of research questions, 2) practical training course on laboratory analytics where small groups of students are responsible for analysis of soil samples related to the specific land-use/forest type/forest age; 3) training course on biotic (e.g. respiration) - abiotic (e.g. temperature, moisture, fire etc.) interactions in the same soil samples; 4) theoretical seminars where students present and make a first attempt to explain soil characteristics of various soil stands as affected by abiotic factors (first semester); 5) lecture and seminar course on soil statistics where students apply newly learned statistical methods to prove their conclusions and to find relationships between soil characteristics obtained during first semester; 6) seminar course on project design where students develop their scientific projects to study the uncertainties revealed in soil responses to abiotic factors (second and third semesters); 7) Lecture, seminar and training courses on estimation of active microbial biomass in soil where students realize their projects applying a new knowledge to the soils from the stands they are responsible for (fourth semester). Thus, during four semesters the students continuously combine the theoretical knowledge from the lectures with their own experimental experience, compare and discuss results of various groups during seminars and obtain the skills in project design. The successful application of research-oriented teaching system in University of Göttingen allowed each student the early-stage revealing knowledge gaps, accelerated their involvement in ongoing research projects, and motivated them to begin own scientific career.

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Inverse Models of Geologic Data from Shear Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. R.; Titus, S.

2016-12-01

We use Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty in inverse models of geologic data. Although this approach can be applied to many tectonic settings, field areas, and mathematical models, we focus on transpressional shear zones. The underlying forward model, either kinematic or dynamic, produces a velocity field, which predicts the dikes, foliation-lineations, crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), shape preferred orientation (SPO), and other geologic data that should arise in the shear zone. These predictions are compared to data using modern methods of geometric statistics, including the Watson (for lines such as dike poles), isotropic matrix Fisher (for orientations such as foliation-lineations and CPO), and multivariate normal (for log-ellipsoids such as SPO) distributions. The result of the comparison is a likelihood, which is a key ingredient in the Bayesian approach. The other key ingredient is a prior distribution, which reflects the geologist's knowledge of the parameters before seeing the data. For some parameters, such as shear zone strike and dip, we identify realistic informative priors. For other parameters, where the geologist has no prior knowledge, we identify useful uninformative priors.We investigate the performance of this approach through numerical experiments on synthetic data sets. A fundamental issue is that many models of deformation exhibit asymptotic behavior (e.g., flow apophyses, fabric attractors) or periodic behavior (e.g., SPO when the clasts are rigid), which causes the likelihood to be too uniform. Based on our experiments, we offer rules of thumb for how many data, of which types, are needed to constrain deformation.

Influences of system uncertainties on the numerical transfer path analysis of engine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acri, A.; Nijman, E.; Acri, A.; Offner, G.

2017-10-01

Practical mechanical systems operate with some degree of uncertainty. In numerical models uncertainties can result from poorly known or variable parameters, from geometrical approximation, from discretization or numerical errors, from uncertain inputs or from rapidly changing forcing that can be best described in a stochastic framework. Recently, random matrix theory was introduced to take parameter uncertainties into account in numerical modeling problems. In particular in this paper, Wishart random matrix theory is applied on a multi-body dynamic system to generate random variations of the properties of system components. Multi-body dynamics is a powerful numerical tool largely implemented during the design of new engines. In this paper the influence of model parameter variability on the results obtained from the multi-body simulation of engine dynamics is investigated. The aim is to define a methodology to properly assess and rank system sources when dealing with uncertainties. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these uncertainties on the analysis and the assessment of the different engine vibration sources. Examples of the effects of different levels of uncertainties are illustrated by means of examples using a representative numerical powertrain model. A numerical transfer path analysis, based on system dynamic substructuring, is used to derive and assess the internal engine vibration sources. The results obtained from this analysis are used to derive correlations between parameter uncertainties and statistical distribution of results. The derived statistical information can be used to advance the knowledge of the multi-body analysis and the assessment of system sources when uncertainties in model parameters are considered.

Overcoming computational uncertainties to reveal chemical sensitivity in single molecule conduction calculations.

PubMed

Solomon, Gemma C; Reimers, Jeffrey R; Hush, Noel S

2005-06-08

In the calculation of conduction through single molecule's approximations about the geometry and electronic structure of the system are usually made in order to simplify the problem. Previously [G. C. Solomon, J. R. Reimers, and N. S. Hush, J. Chem. Phys. 121, 6615 (2004)], we have shown that, in calculations employing cluster models for the electrodes, proper treatment of the open-shell nature of the clusters is the most important computational feature required to make the results sensitive to variations in the structural and chemical features of the system. Here, we expand this and establish a general hierarchy of requirements involving treatment of geometrical approximations. These approximations are categorized into two classes: those associated with finite-dimensional methods for representing the semi-infinite electrodes, and those associated with the chemisorption topology. We show that ca. 100 unique atoms are required in order to properly characterize each electrode: using fewer atoms leads to nonsystematic variations in conductivity that can overwhelm the subtler changes. The choice of binding site is shown to be the next most important feature, while some effects that are difficult to control experimentally concerning the orientations at each binding site are actually shown to be insignificant. Verification of this result provides a general test for the precision of computational procedures for molecular conductivity. Predictions concerning the dependence of conduction on substituent and other effects on the central molecule are found to be meaningful only when they exceed the uncertainties of the effects associated with binding-site variation.

Overcoming computational uncertainties to reveal chemical sensitivity in single molecule conduction calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Gemma C.; Reimers, Jeffrey R.; Hush, Noel S.

2005-06-01

In the calculation of conduction through single molecule's approximations about the geometry and electronic structure of the system are usually made in order to simplify the problem. Previously [G. C. Solomon, J. R. Reimers, and N. S. Hush, J. Chem. Phys. 121, 6615 (2004)], we have shown that, in calculations employing cluster models for the electrodes, proper treatment of the open-shell nature of the clusters is the most important computational feature required to make the results sensitive to variations in the structural and chemical features of the system. Here, we expand this and establish a general hierarchy of requirements involving treatment of geometrical approximations. These approximations are categorized into two classes: those associated with finite-dimensional methods for representing the semi-infinite electrodes, and those associated with the chemisorption topology. We show that ca. 100 unique atoms are required in order to properly characterize each electrode: using fewer atoms leads to nonsystematic variations in conductivity that can overwhelm the subtler changes. The choice of binding site is shown to be the next most important feature, while some effects that are difficult to control experimentally concerning the orientations at each binding site are actually shown to be insignificant. Verification of this result provides a general test for the precision of computational procedures for molecular conductivity. Predictions concerning the dependence of conduction on substituent and other effects on the central molecule are found to be meaningful only when they exceed the uncertainties of the effects associated with binding-site variation.

UQTools: The Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox - Introduction and Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

UQTools is the short name for the Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox, a software package designed to efficiently quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on engineering systems. UQTools is a MATLAB-based software package and was designed to be discipline independent, employing very generic representations of the system models and uncertainty. Specifically, UQTools accepts linear and nonlinear system models and permits arbitrary functional dependencies between the system s measures of interest and the probabilistic or non-probabilistic parametric uncertainty. One of the most significant features incorporated into UQTools is the theoretical development centered on homothetic deformations and their application to set bounding and approximating failure probabilities. Beyond the set bounding technique, UQTools provides a wide range of probabilistic and uncertainty-based tools to solve key problems in science and engineering.

Contingency Planning for Planetary Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicolas; Ramakrishnan, Sailesh; Smith, David; Washington, Rich; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

There has been considerable work in AI on planning under uncertainty. But this work generally assumes an extremely simple model of action that does not consider continuous time and resources. These assumptions are not reasonable for a Mars rover, which must cope with uncertainty about the duration of tasks, the power required, the data storage necessary, along with its position and orientation. In this paper, we outline an approach to generating contingency plans when the sources of uncertainty involve continuous quantities such as time and resources. The approach involves first constructing a "seed" plan, and then incrementally adding contingent branches to this plan in order to improve utility. The challenge is to figure out the best places to insert contingency branches. This requires an estimate of how much utility could be gained by building a contingent branch at any given place in the seed plan. Computing this utility exactly is intractable, but we outline an approximation method that back propagates utility distributions through a graph structure similar to that of a plan graph.

Incremental Contingency Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicolas; Ramakrishnan, Sailesh; Smith, David E.; Washington, Rich

2003-01-01

There has been considerable work in AI on planning under uncertainty. However, this work generally assumes an extremely simple model of action that does not consider continuous time and resources. These assumptions are not reasonable for a Mars rover, which must cope with uncertainty about the duration of tasks, the energy required, the data storage necessary, and its current position and orientation. In this paper, we outline an approach to generating contingency plans when the sources of uncertainty involve continuous quantities such as time and resources. The approach involves first constructing a "seed" plan, and then incrementally adding contingent branches to this plan in order to improve utility. The challenge is to figure out the best places to insert contingency branches. This requires an estimate of how much utility could be gained by building a contingent branch at any given place in the seed plan. Computing this utility exactly is intractable, but we outline an approximation method that back propagates utility distributions through a graph structure similar to that of a plan graph.

Technology assessment: What should it be?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Black, G.

1975-01-01

The necessity of uncovering unsuspected relationships in proposed actions is discussed along with the feasibility of using decision theoretical models to cope with problems of uncertainty in the future-oriented analyses characteristic of assessments. It is shown that it is necessary to integrate the results of technology assessment with other program analyses and that results of technology assessment be supplied in a form that permits integration with other information.

Initiative-Oriented Training.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-06-05

Conditions, and Standards Prior to STXs 70 13. Knowledge of the Enemy Situation Prior to STXs 71 14. Frequency of MILES Free - Play Exercises 72...in addition to realistic sights, sounds, and smells. With regards to force-on-force, or free - play MILES exercises, uncertainty and initiative can...sounds, and (to some degree) smells of the battlefield; use MILES force-on-force, free - play exercises to incorporate cognitive mental Stressors and

Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment. [impact of heating rate prediction errors on weight of thermal protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fehrman, A. L.; Masek, R. V.

1972-01-01

Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

Energy Management of the Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle Using a Goal-Oriented Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braman, Julia M. B.; Wagner, David A.

2010-01-01

Safe human exploration in space missions requires careful management of limited resources such as breathable air and stored electrical energy. Daily activities for astronauts must be carefully planned with respect to such resources, and usage must be monitored as activities proceed to ensure that they can be completed while maintaining safe resource margins. Such planning and monitoring can be complex because they depend on models of resource usage, the activities being planned, and uncertainties. This paper describes a system - and the technology behind it - for energy management of the NASA-Johnson Space Center's Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicles (SEV), that provides, in an onboard advisory mode, situational awareness to astronauts and real-time guidance to mission operators. This new capability was evaluated during this year's Desert RATS (Research and Technology Studies) planetary exploration analog test in Arizona. This software aided ground operators and crew members in modifying the day s activities based on the real-time execution of the plan and on energy data received from the rovers.

Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Kevin

Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

Assessment of Spatial Transferability of Process-Based Hydrological Model Parameters in Two Neighboring Catchments in the Himalayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepal, S.

2016-12-01

The spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process-oriented distributed J2000 hydrological model was investigated in two glaciated sub-catchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The basins had a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986-1991) and validated (1992-1997) in the Dudh Koshi sub-catchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001-2009). A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was carried out for both sub-catchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both sub-catchments, including baseflow and medium range flows (rising and recession limbs). The efficiency results according to both Nash-Sutcliffe and the coefficient of determination was above 0.84 in both cases. The sensitivity analysis showed that the same parameter was most sensitive for Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) and Log Nash-Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies in both catchments. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderate and low sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) result suggest that most of the time the observed runoff is within the parameter uncertainty range, although occasionally the values lie outside the uncertainty range, especially during flood peaks and more in the Tamor. This may be due to the limited input data resulting from the small number of precipitation stations and lack of representative stations in high-altitude areas, as well as to model structural uncertainty. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighboring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying process-based J2000 model be to the ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.

Economic-Oriented Stochastic Optimization in Advanced Process Control of Chemical Processes

PubMed Central

Dobos, László; Király, András; Abonyi, János

2012-01-01

Finding the optimal operating region of chemical processes is an inevitable step toward improving economic performance. Usually the optimal operating region is situated close to process constraints related to product quality or process safety requirements. Higher profit can be realized only by assuring a relatively low frequency of violation of these constraints. A multilevel stochastic optimization framework is proposed to determine the optimal setpoint values of control loops with respect to predetermined risk levels, uncertainties, and costs of violation of process constraints. The proposed framework is realized as direct search-type optimization of Monte-Carlo simulation of the controlled process. The concept is illustrated throughout by a well-known benchmark problem related to the control of a linear dynamical system and the model predictive control of a more complex nonlinear polymerization process. PMID:23213298

Awareness and action for eliminating health care disparities in pain care: Web-based resources.

PubMed

Fan, Ling; Thomas, Melissa; Deitrick, Ginna E; Polomano, Rosemary C

2008-01-01

Evidence shows that disparities in pain care exist, and this problem spans across all health care settings. Health care disparities are complex, and stem from the health system climate, limitations imposed by laws and regulations, and discriminatory practices that are deep seated in biases, stereotypes, and uncertainties surrounding communication and decision-making processes. A search of the Internet identified thousands of Web sites, documents, reports, and educational materials pertaining to health and pain disparities. Web sites for federal agencies, private foundations, and professional and consumer-oriented organizations provide useful information on disparities related to age, race, ethnicity, geography, socioeconomic status, and specific populations. The contents of 10 Web sites are examined for resources to assist health professionals and consumers in better understanding health and pain disparities and ways to overcome them in practice.

Palaeo-sea-level and palaeo-ice-sheet databases: problems, strategies, and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düsterhus, André; Rovere, Alessio; Carlson, Anders E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Klemann, Volker; Tarasov, Lev; Barlow, Natasha L. M.; Bradwell, Tom; Clark, Jorie; Dutton, Andrea; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hibbert, Fiona D.; Hijma, Marc P.; Khan, Nicole; Kopp, Robert E.; Sivan, Dorit; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.

2016-04-01

Sea-level and ice-sheet databases have driven numerous advances in understanding the Earth system. We describe the challenges and offer best strategies that can be adopted to build self-consistent and standardised databases of geological and geochemical information used to archive palaeo-sea-levels and palaeo-ice-sheets. There are three phases in the development of a database: (i) measurement, (ii) interpretation, and (iii) database creation. Measurement should include the objective description of the position and age of a sample, description of associated geological features, and quantification of uncertainties. Interpretation of the sample may have a subjective component, but it should always include uncertainties and alternative or contrasting interpretations, with any exclusion of existing interpretations requiring a full justification. During the creation of a database, an approach based on accessibility, transparency, trust, availability, continuity, completeness, and communication of content (ATTAC3) must be adopted. It is essential to consider the community that creates and benefits from a database. We conclude that funding agencies should not only consider the creation of original data in specific research-question-oriented projects, but also include the possibility of using part of the funding for IT-related and database creation tasks, which are essential to guarantee accessibility and maintenance of the collected data.

Gating geometry studies of thin-walled 17-4PH investment castings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maguire, M.C.; Zanner, F.J.

1992-11-01

The ability to design gating systems that reliably feed and support investment castings is often the result of ``cut-and-try`` methodology. Factors such as hot tearing, porosity, cold shuts, misruns, and shrink are defects often corrected by several empirical gating design iterations. Sandia National Laboratories is developing rules that aid in removing the uncertainty involved in the design of gating systems for investment castings. In this work, gating geometries used for filling of thin walled investment cast 17-4PH stainless steel flat plates were investigated. A full factorial experiment evaluating the influence of metal pour temperature, mold preheat temperature, and mold channelmore » thickness were conducted for orientations that filled a horizontal flat plate from the edge. A single wedge gate geometry was used for the edge-gated configuration. Thermocouples placed along the top of the mold recorded metal front temperatures, and a real-time x-ray imaging system tracked the fluid flow behavior during filling of the casting. Data from these experiments were used to determine the terminal fill volumes and terminal fill times for each gate design.« less

Gating geometry studies of thin-walled 17-4PH investment castings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maguire, M.C.; Zanner, F.J.

1992-01-01

The ability to design gating systems that reliably feed and support investment castings is often the result of cut-and-try'' methodology. Factors such as hot tearing, porosity, cold shuts, misruns, and shrink are defects often corrected by several empirical gating design iterations. Sandia National Laboratories is developing rules that aid in removing the uncertainty involved in the design of gating systems for investment castings. In this work, gating geometries used for filling of thin walled investment cast 17-4PH stainless steel flat plates were investigated. A full factorial experiment evaluating the influence of metal pour temperature, mold preheat temperature, and mold channelmore » thickness were conducted for orientations that filled a horizontal flat plate from the edge. A single wedge gate geometry was used for the edge-gated configuration. Thermocouples placed along the top of the mold recorded metal front temperatures, and a real-time x-ray imaging system tracked the fluid flow behavior during filling of the casting. Data from these experiments were used to determine the terminal fill volumes and terminal fill times for each gate design.« less

Hierarchical design of an electro-hydraulic actuator based on robust LPV methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Németh, Balázs; Varga, Balázs; Gáspár, Péter

2015-08-01

The paper proposes a hierarchical control design of an electro-hydraulic actuator, which is used to improve the roll stability of vehicles. The purpose of the control system is to generate a reference torque, which is required by the vehicle dynamic control. The control-oriented model of the actuator is formulated in two subsystems. The high-level hydromotor is described in a linear form, while the low-level spool valve is a polynomial system. These subsystems require different control strategies. At the high level, a linear parameter-varying control is used to guarantee performance specifications. At the low level, a control Lyapunov-function-based algorithm, which creates discrete control input values of the valve, is proposed. The interaction between the two subsystems is guaranteed by the spool displacement, which is control input at the high level and must be tracked at the low-level control. The spool displacement has physical constraints, which must also be incorporated into the control design. The robust design of the high-level control incorporates the imprecision of the low-level control as an uncertainty of the system.

I had a dream… Continuous InSAR measurement and transparent earth, the beauty of analogue modeling to assess direct model uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taisne, B.; Pansino, S.; Manta, F.; Tay Wen Jing, C.

2017-12-01

Have you ever dreamed about continuous, high resolution InSAR data? Have you ever dreamed about a transparent earth allowing you to see what is actually going on under a volcano? Well, you likely dreamed about an analogue facility that allows you to scale down the natural system to fit into a room, with a controlled environment and complex visualisation system. Analogue modeling has been widely used to understand magmatic processes and thanks to a transparent analogue for the elastic Earth's crust, we can see, as it evolves with time, the migration of a dyke, the volume change of a chamber or the rise of a bubble in a conduit. All those phenomena are modeled theoretically or numerically, with their own simplifications. Therefore, how well are we really constraining the physical parameters describing the evolution of a dyke or a chamber? Getting access to those parameters, in real time and with high level of confidence is of paramount importance while dealing with unrest at volcanoes. The aim of this research is to estimate the uncertainties of the widely used Okada and Mogi models. To do so, we design a set of analogue experiments allowing us to explore different elastic properties of the medium, the characteristic of the fluid injected into the medium as well as the depth, size and volume change of a reservoir. The associated surface deformation is extracted using an array of synchronised cameras and using digital image correlation and structure from motion for horizontal and vertical deformation respectively. The surface deformation are then inverted to retrieve the controlling parameters (e.g. location and volume change of a chamber, or orientation, position, length, breadth and opening of a dyke). By comparing those results with the known parameters, that we can see and measure independently, we estimate the uncertainties of the models themself, and the associated level of confidence for each of the inverted parameters.

Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

Robustness Analysis and Optimally Robust Control Design via Sum-of-Squares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorobantu, Andrei; Crespo, Luis G.; Seiler, Peter J.

2012-01-01

A control analysis and design framework is proposed for systems subject to parametric uncertainty. The underlying strategies are based on sum-of-squares (SOS) polynomial analysis and nonlinear optimization to design an optimally robust controller. The approach determines a maximum uncertainty range for which the closed-loop system satisfies a set of stability and performance requirements. These requirements, de ned as inequality constraints on several metrics, are restricted to polynomial functions of the uncertainty. To quantify robustness, SOS analysis is used to prove that the closed-loop system complies with the requirements for a given uncertainty range. The maximum uncertainty range, calculated by assessing a sequence of increasingly larger ranges, serves as a robustness metric for the closed-loop system. To optimize the control design, nonlinear optimization is used to enlarge the maximum uncertainty range by tuning the controller gains. Hence, the resulting controller is optimally robust to parametric uncertainty. This approach balances the robustness margins corresponding to each requirement in order to maximize the aggregate system robustness. The proposed framework is applied to a simple linear short-period aircraft model with uncertain aerodynamic coefficients.

Developing a spectroradiometer data uncertainty methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, Josh; Vignola, Frank; Habte, Aron

The proper calibration and measurement uncertainty of spectral data obtained from spectroradiometers is essential in accurately quantifying the output of photovoltaic (PV) devices. PV cells and modules are initially characterized using solar simulators but field performance is evaluated using natural sunlight. Spectroradiometers are used to measure the spectrum of both these light sources in an effort to understand the spectral dependence of various PV output capabilities. These chains of characterization and measurement are traceable to National Metrology Institutes such as National Institute of Standards and Technology, and therefore there is a need for a comprehensive uncertainty methodology to determine themore » accuracy of spectroradiometer data. In this paper, the uncertainties associated with the responsivity of a spectroradiometer are examined using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) protocols. This is first done for a generic spectroradiometer, and then, to illustrate the methodology, the calibration of a LI-COR 1800 spectroradiometer is performed. The reader should be aware that the implementation of this methodology will be specific to the spectroradiometer being analyzed and the experimental setup that is used. Depending of the characteristics of the spectroradiometer being evaluated additional sources of uncertainty may need to be included, but the general GUM methodology is the same. Several sources of uncertainty are associated with the spectroradiometer responsivity. Major sources of uncertainty associated with the LI-COR spectroradiometer are noise in the signal at wavelengths less than 400 nm. At wavelengths more than 400 nm, the responsivity can vary drastically, and it is dependent on the wavelength of light, the temperature dependence, the angle of incidence, and the azimuthal orientation of the sensor to the light source. As a result, the expanded uncertainties in the responsivity of the LI-COR spectroradiometer in the wavelength range of 400-1050 nm can range from 4% to 14% at the 95% confidence level.« less

Developing a spectroradiometer data uncertainty methodology

DOE PAGES

Peterson, Josh; Vignola, Frank; Habte, Aron; ...

2017-04-11

The proper calibration and measurement uncertainty of spectral data obtained from spectroradiometers is essential in accurately quantifying the output of photovoltaic (PV) devices. PV cells and modules are initially characterized using solar simulators but field performance is evaluated using natural sunlight. Spectroradiometers are used to measure the spectrum of both these light sources in an effort to understand the spectral dependence of various PV output capabilities. These chains of characterization and measurement are traceable to National Metrology Institutes such as National Institute of Standards and Technology, and therefore there is a need for a comprehensive uncertainty methodology to determine themore » accuracy of spectroradiometer data. In this paper, the uncertainties associated with the responsivity of a spectroradiometer are examined using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) protocols. This is first done for a generic spectroradiometer, and then, to illustrate the methodology, the calibration of a LI-COR 1800 spectroradiometer is performed. The reader should be aware that the implementation of this methodology will be specific to the spectroradiometer being analyzed and the experimental setup that is used. Depending of the characteristics of the spectroradiometer being evaluated additional sources of uncertainty may need to be included, but the general GUM methodology is the same. Several sources of uncertainty are associated with the spectroradiometer responsivity. Major sources of uncertainty associated with the LI-COR spectroradiometer are noise in the signal at wavelengths less than 400 nm. At wavelengths more than 400 nm, the responsivity can vary drastically, and it is dependent on the wavelength of light, the temperature dependence, the angle of incidence, and the azimuthal orientation of the sensor to the light source. As a result, the expanded uncertainties in the responsivity of the LI-COR spectroradiometer in the wavelength range of 400-1050 nm can range from 4% to 14% at the 95% confidence level.« less

Perception of the dynamic visual vertical during sinusoidal linear motion.

PubMed

Pomante, A; Selen, L P J; Medendorp, W P

2017-10-01

The vestibular system provides information for spatial orientation. However, this information is ambiguous: because the otoliths sense the gravitoinertial force, they cannot distinguish gravitational and inertial components. As a consequence, prolonged linear acceleration of the head can be interpreted as tilt, referred to as the somatogravic effect. Previous modeling work suggests that the brain disambiguates the otolith signal according to the rules of Bayesian inference, combining noisy canal cues with the a priori assumption that prolonged linear accelerations are unlikely. Within this modeling framework the noise of the vestibular signals affects the dynamic characteristics of the tilt percept during linear whole-body motion. To test this prediction, we devised a novel paradigm to psychometrically characterize the dynamic visual vertical-as a proxy for the tilt percept-during passive sinusoidal linear motion along the interaural axis (0.33 Hz motion frequency, 1.75 m/s 2 peak acceleration, 80 cm displacement). While subjects ( n =10) kept fixation on a central body-fixed light, a line was briefly flashed (5 ms) at different phases of the motion, the orientation of which had to be judged relative to gravity. Consistent with the model's prediction, subjects showed a phase-dependent modulation of the dynamic visual vertical, with a subject-specific phase shift with respect to the imposed acceleration signal. The magnitude of this modulation was smaller than predicted, suggesting a contribution of nonvestibular signals to the dynamic visual vertical. Despite their dampening effect, our findings may point to a link between the noise components in the vestibular system and the characteristics of dynamic visual vertical. NEW & NOTEWORTHY A fundamental question in neuroscience is how the brain processes vestibular signals to infer the orientation of the body and objects in space. We show that, under sinusoidal linear motion, systematic error patterns appear in the disambiguation of linear acceleration and spatial orientation. We discuss the dynamics of these illusory percepts in terms of a dynamic Bayesian model that combines uncertainty in the vestibular signals with priors based on the natural statistics of head motion. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Different approaches to overcome uncertainties of production systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, Amir; Sorooshian, Shahryar

2015-05-01

This study presented a comprehensive review on the understanding of uncertainty and the current approaches that have been proposed to handle the uncertainties in the production systems. This paper classified proposed approaches into 11 groups. The paper studied 114 scholarly papers through various international journals. The paper added the latest findings to the body of knowledge to the current reservoir of understanding of the production uncertainties. Thus, the paper prepared the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references in this area. This review also provided an excellent source to continue further studies on how to deal with the uncertainties of production system.

Locus of control, quality of life, anxiety, and depression among Malaysian breast cancer patients: The mediating role of uncertainty.

PubMed

Pahlevan Sharif, Saeed

2017-04-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate the mediating role of uncertainty in the relationship between locus of control with quality of life, anxiety, and depression. A descriptive and correlational survey was conducted in a private hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A convenience sample of 118 Malaysian breast cancer patients voluntarily participated in the study and responded to a set of questionnaires including: socio-demographic questionnaire, the short form of Locus of Control Scale, the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast (FACT-B), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and the Short-Form Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale (SF-MUIS). The results revealed that breast cancer patients with higher internal locus of control and lower external locus of control experience a higher quality of life, lower anxiety, and lower depression. Also, uncertainty mediated the relationship between locus of control with quality of life and depression (quasi-significant). The findings indicated the need for early, targeted psychological interventions seeking to gradually shift cancer patients' locus of control from external to internal in order to improve their quality of life and reduce their depression and anxiety. Moreover, health care providers by providing relevant information to cancer patients, especially for externally oriented patients, can reduce their uncertainty which in turn would improve their quality of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protocol and practice in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, F.; Williams, K.

1999-01-01

Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural uncertainty is an unplanned by-product of the regulatory process. A generalization of the Markov decision process permits the calculation of optimal actively adaptive policies, but it is not yet clear how state-specific harvest actions differ between passive and active approaches. The Markov decision process also provides managers the ability to explore optimal levels of aggregation or "management scale" for regulating harvests in a system that exhibits high temporal, spatial, and organizational variability. Progress in institutionalizing adaptive harvest management has been remarkable, but some managers still perceive the process as a panacea, while failing to appreciate the challenges presented by this more explicit and methodical approach to harvest regulation. Technical hurdles include the need to develop better linkages between population processes and the dynamics of landscapes, and to model the dynamics of structural uncertainty in a more comprehensive fashion. From an institutional perspective, agreement on how to value and allocate harvests continues to be elusive, and there is some evidence that waterfowl managers have overestimated the importance of achievement-oriented factors in setting hunting regulations. Indeed, it is these unresolved value judgements, and the lack of an effective structure for organizing debate, that present the greatest threat to adaptive harvest management as a viable means for coping with management uncertainty. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

How important is exact knowledge of preferential flowpath locations and orientations for understanding spatiotemporally integrated spring hydrologic and transport response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, W.; De Rooij, R.; Graham, W. D.

2016-12-01

The Upper Floridian Aquifer is hydrogeologically complex; limestone dissolution has led to vertical and horizontal preferential flow paths. Locations of karst conduits are unknown and conduit properties are poorly constrained. Uncertainty in effects of conduit location, size, and density, network geometry and connectivity on hydrologic and transport responses is not well quantified, leading to limited use of discrete-continuum models that incorporate conduit networks for regional-scale hydrologic regulatory models. However, conduit networks typically dominate flow and contaminant transport in karst aquifers. We evaluated sensitivity of simulated water and nitrate fluxes and flow paths to karst conduit geometry in a springshed representative of Silver Springs, Florida, using a novel calcite dissolution conduit-generation algorithm coupled with a discrete-continuum flow and transport model (DisCo). Monte Carlo simulations of conduit generation, groundwater flow, and conservative solute transport indicate that, if a first magnitude spring system conduit network developed (i.e., spring flow >2.8 m3/s), the uncertainty in hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics at the spring vent was minimally related to locational uncertainty of network elements. Across the ensemble of realizations for various distributions of conduits, first magnitude spring hydraulic pulse metrics (e.g., steady-flow, peak flow, and recession coefficients) had < 0.01 coefficient of variation (CV). Similarly, spring solute breakthrough curve moments had low CV (<0.08); peak arrival had CV=0.06, mean travel time had CV=0.05, and travel time standard deviation had CV=0.08. Nevertheless, hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics were significantly different than those predicted by an equivalent porous-media model. These findings indicate that regional-scale decision models that incorporate karst preferential flow paths within an uncertainty framework can be used to better constrain aquifer-vulnerability estimates, despite lacking information about actual conduit locations.

Improving the driver-automation interaction: an approach using automation uncertainty.

PubMed

Beller, Johannes; Heesen, Matthias; Vollrath, Mark

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether communicating automation uncertainty improves the driver-automation interaction. A false system understanding of infallibility may provoke automation misuse and can lead to severe consequences in case of automation failure. The presentation of automation uncertainty may prevent this false system understanding and, as was shown by previous studies, may have numerous benefits. Few studies, however, have clearly shown the potential of communicating uncertainty information in driving. The current study fills this gap. We conducted a driving simulator experiment, varying the presented uncertainty information between participants (no uncertainty information vs. uncertainty information) and the automation reliability (high vs.low) within participants. Participants interacted with a highly automated driving system while engaging in secondary tasks and were required to cooperate with the automation to drive safely. Quantile regressions and multilevel modeling showed that the presentation of uncertainty information increases the time to collision in the case of automation failure. Furthermore, the data indicated improved situation awareness and better knowledge of fallibility for the experimental group. Consequently, the automation with the uncertainty symbol received higher trust ratings and increased acceptance. The presentation of automation uncertaintythrough a symbol improves overall driver-automation cooperation. Most automated systems in driving could benefit from displaying reliability information. This display might improve the acceptance of fallible systems and further enhances driver-automation cooperation.

Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

2015-03-19

This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switchingmore » out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.« less

Outcome Uncertainty and Brain Activity Aberrance in the Insula and Anterior Cingulate Cortex Are Associated with Dysfunctional Impulsivity in Borderline Personality Disorder

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Jørgen Assar; Evensmoen, Hallvard Røe; Klensmeden, Gunilla; Håberg, Asta Kristine

2016-01-01

Uncertainty is recognized as an important component in distress, which may elicit impulsive behavior in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). These patients are known to be both impulsive and distress intolerant. The present study explored the connection between outcome uncertainty and impulsivity in BPD. The prediction was that cue primes, which provide incomplete information of subsequent target stimuli, led BPD patients to overrate the predictive value of these cues in order to reduce distress related to outcome uncertainty. This would yield dysfunctional impulsive behavior detected as commission errors to incorrectly primed targets. We hypothesized that dysfunctional impulsivity would be accompanied by aberrant brain activity in the right insula and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), previously described to be involved in uncertainty processing, attention-/cognitive control and BPD pathology. 14 female BPD patients and 14 healthy matched controls (HCs) for comparison completed a Posner task during fMRI at 3T. The task was modified to limit the effect of spatial orientation and enhance the effect of conscious expectations. Brain activity was monitored in the priming phase where the effects of cue primes and neutral primes were compared. As predicted, the BPD group made significantly more commission errors to incorrectly primed targets than HCs. Also, the patients had faster reaction times to correctly primed targets relative to targets preceded by neutral primes. The BPD group had decreased activity in the right mid insula and increased activity in bilateral dorsal ACC during cue primes. The results indicate that strong expectations induced by cue primes led to reduced uncertainty, increased response readiness, and ultimately, dysfunctional impulsivity in BPD patients. We suggest that outcome uncertainty may be an important component in distress related impulsivity in BPD. PMID:27199724

Linking environment-productivity trade-offs and correlated uncertainties: Greenhouse gas emissions and crop productivity in paddy rice production systems.

PubMed

Hayashi, Kiyotada; Nagumo, Yoshifumi; Domoto, Akiko

2016-11-15

In comparative life cycle assessments of agricultural production systems, analyses of both the trade-offs between environmental impacts and crop productivity and of the uncertainties specific to agriculture such as fluctuations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and crop yields are crucial. However, these two issues are usually analyzed separately. In this paper, we present a framework to link trade-off and uncertainty analyses; correlated uncertainties are integrated into environment-productivity trade-off analyses. We compared three rice production systems in Japan: a system using a pelletized, nitrogen-concentrated organic fertilizer made from poultry manure using closed-air composting techniques (high-N system), a system using a conventional organic fertilizer made from poultry manure using open-air composting techniques (low-N system), and a system using a chemical compound fertilizer (conventional system). We focused on two important sources of uncertainties in paddy rice cultivation-methane emissions from paddy fields and crop yields. We found trade-offs between the conventional and high-N systems and the low-N system and the existence of positively correlated uncertainties in the conventional and high-N systems. We concluded that our framework is effective in recommending the high-N system compared with the low-N system, although the performance of the former is almost the same as the conventional system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of a Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) Set-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porta, David; Echeverría, Carlos; Cardoso, Hiroki; Aguayo, Alejandro; Stern, Catalina

2014-11-01

We use two materials with different known indexes of refraction to calibrate a Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) experimental set-up, and to validate the Lorenz-Lorentz equation. BOS is used in our experiments to determine local changes of density in the shock pattern of an axisymmetric supersonic air jet. It is important to validate, in particular, the Gladstone Dale approximation (index of refraction close to one) in our experimental conditions and determine the uncertainty of our density measurements. In some cases, the index of refraction of the material is well known, but in others the density is measured and related to the displacement field. We acknowledge support from UNAM through DGAPA PAPIIT IN117712 and the Graduate Program in Mechanical Engineering.

The effect of culture on the curvilinear relationship between performance and turnover.

PubMed

Sturman, Michael C; Shao, Lian; Katz, Jan H

2012-01-01

Although researchers have theorized that there exists a curvilinear relationship between job performance and voluntary turnover, their research has been tested in the United States or culturally similar Switzerland. Through a study of the performance-turnover relationship from a multinational service-oriented organization in 24 countries, we demonstrate that the general relationship between performance and turnover is similar across countries but the details of that relationship change across countries. Using 4 cultural dimensions--in-group collectivism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and performance orientation--we find that cultural factors alter the overall probability of voluntary turnover and influence the degree of curvilinearity in the performance-turnover relationship. Our findings have implications for research on the performance-turnover relationship, turnover research, and practice.

The Predictive Capability of Conditioned Simulation of Discrete Fracture Networks using Structural and Hydraulic Data from the ONKALO Underground Research Facility, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, T. R. N.; Baxter, S.; Hartley, L.; Appleyard, P.; Koskinen, L.; Vanhanarkaus, O.; Selroos, J. O.; Munier, R.

2017-12-01

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models provide a natural analysis framework for rock conditions where flow is predominately through a series of connected discrete features. Mechanistic models to predict the structural patterns of networks are generally intractable due to inherent uncertainties (e.g. deformation history) and as such fracture characterisation typically involves empirical descriptions of fracture statistics for location, intensity, orientation, size, aperture etc. from analyses of field data. These DFN models are used to make probabilistic predictions of likely flow or solute transport conditions for a range of applications in underground resource and construction projects. However, there are many instances when the volumes in which predictions are most valuable are close to data sources. For example, in the disposal of hazardous materials such as radioactive waste, accurate predictions of flow-rates and network connectivity around disposal areas are required for long-term safety evaluation. The problem at hand is thus: how can probabilistic predictions be conditioned on local-scale measurements? This presentation demonstrates conditioning of a DFN model based on the current structural and hydraulic characterisation of the Demonstration Area at the ONKALO underground research facility. The conditioned realisations honour (to a required level of similarity) the locations, orientations and trace lengths of fractures mapped on the surfaces of the nearby ONKALO tunnels and pilot drillholes. Other data used as constraints include measurements from hydraulic injection tests performed in pilot drillholes and inflows to the subsequently reamed experimental deposition holes. Numerical simulations using this suite of conditioned DFN models provides a series of prediction-outcome exercises detailing the reliability of the DFN model to make local-scale predictions of measured geometric and hydraulic properties of the fracture system; and provides an understanding of the reduction in uncertainty in model predictions for conditioned DFN models honouring different aspects of this data.

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Hark, Frank

2016-01-01

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Hark, Frank; Al Hassan, Mohammad

2016-01-01

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

On-orbit servicing system assessment and optimization methods based on lifecycle simulation under mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Wen; Chen, Xiaoqian; Huang, Yiyong; van Tooren, Michel

2013-06-01

To assess the on-orbit servicing (OOS) paradigm and optimize its utilities by taking advantage of its inherent flexibility and responsiveness, the OOS system assessment and optimization methods based on lifecycle simulation under uncertainties are studied. The uncertainty sources considered in this paper include both the aleatory (random launch/OOS operation failure and on-orbit component failure) and the epistemic (the unknown trend of the end-used market price) types. Firstly, the lifecycle simulation under uncertainties is discussed. The chronological flowchart is presented. The cost and benefit models are established, and the uncertainties thereof are modeled. The dynamic programming method to make optimal decision in face of the uncertain events is introduced. Secondly, the method to analyze the propagation effects of the uncertainties on the OOS utilities is studied. With combined probability and evidence theory, a Monte Carlo lifecycle Simulation based Unified Uncertainty Analysis (MCS-UUA) approach is proposed, based on which the OOS utility assessment tool under mixed uncertainties is developed. Thirdly, to further optimize the OOS system under mixed uncertainties, the reliability-based optimization (RBO) method is studied. To alleviate the computational burden of the traditional RBO method which involves nested optimum search and uncertainty analysis, the framework of Sequential Optimization and Mixed Uncertainty Analysis (SOMUA) is employed to integrate MCS-UUA, and the RBO algorithm SOMUA-MCS is developed. Fourthly, a case study on the OOS system for a hypothetical GEO commercial communication satellite is investigated with the proposed assessment tool. Furthermore, the OOS system is optimized with SOMUA-MCS. Lastly, some conclusions are given and future research prospects are highlighted.

Synthesis and Control of Flexible Systems with Component-Level Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maghami, Peiman G.; Lim, Kyong B.

2009-01-01

An efficient and computationally robust method for synthesis of component dynamics is developed. The method defines the interface forces/moments as feasible vectors in transformed coordinates to ensure that connectivity requirements of the combined structure are met. The synthesized system is then defined in a transformed set of feasible coordinates. The simplicity of form is exploited to effectively deal with modeling parametric and non-parametric uncertainties at the substructure level. Uncertainty models of reasonable size and complexity are synthesized for the combined structure from those in the substructure models. In particular, we address frequency and damping uncertainties at the component level. The approach first considers the robustness of synthesized flexible systems. It is then extended to deal with non-synthesized dynamic models with component-level uncertainties by projecting uncertainties to the system level. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

2006-01-01

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Tailoring Configuration to User’s Tasks under Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-28

CARISMA is the problem being solved. CARISMA applies microeconom- ics and game theory to make runtime decisions about allocating scarce resources among...scarce resources, these applications are running on be- half of one user. Thus, our problem has no game theoretic aspects. 2.2 Task Oriented...prediction tool [15] is based on the RPS tool and allows prediction of bandwidth online . There is additional evidence (see, for example [49

Locus of Control and Coping Style as Stress Moderators in Achievement Oriented Individuals

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

stressfulness of events by coloring them as stimulating rather than threatening. This leads to attempts to transform oneself and grow by fostering ...efforts to master conditions of uncertainty that tax or exceed adaptive resources ( Latack , 1986). II includes any response thai prevents, avoids, or...more likely to be depressed, function poorly, experience more marital distress, and consume more alcohol. Latack (1986) classifying coping responses

Risk Aversion: As Perceived by U.S. and Swedish Officers

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

for Cultural Risk Research at Charles Sturt University Australia. As a constructivist she examines how the concept of risk has been constructed over...that distinguishes one group of people from another (Hofstede 2005, 3ff). Studying differences in culture demands a position of cultural relativism ... relativism analyzes culture on five scales. The terms Hofstede uses for these scales are Power Distance, Individualism, Long-Term Orientation, Uncertainty

Uncertainty Propagation for Terrestrial Mobile Laser Scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezian, c.; Vallet, Bruno; Soheilian, Bahman; Paparoditis, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Laser scanners are used more and more in mobile mapping systems. They provide 3D point clouds that are used for object reconstruction and registration of the system. For both of those applications, uncertainty analysis of 3D points is of great interest but rarely investigated in the literature. In this paper we present a complete pipeline that takes into account all the sources of uncertainties and allows to compute a covariance matrix per 3D point. The sources of uncertainties are laser scanner, calibration of the scanner in relation to the vehicle and direct georeferencing system. We suppose that all the uncertainties follow the Gaussian law. The variances of the laser scanner measurements (two angles and one distance) are usually evaluated by the constructors. This is also the case for integrated direct georeferencing devices. Residuals of the calibration process were used to estimate the covariance matrix of the 6D transformation between scanner laser and the vehicle system. Knowing the variances of all sources of uncertainties, we applied uncertainty propagation technique to compute the variance-covariance matrix of every obtained 3D point. Such an uncertainty analysis enables to estimate the impact of different laser scanners and georeferencing devices on the quality of obtained 3D points. The obtained uncertainty values were illustrated using error ellipsoids on different datasets.

Structural data collection with mobile devices: Accuracy, redundancy, and best practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allmendinger, Richard W.; Siron, Christopher R.; Scott, Chelsea P.

2017-09-01

Smart phones are equipped with numerous sensors that enable orientation data collection for structural geology at a rate up to an order of magnitude faster than traditional analog compasses. The rapidity of measurement enables field structural geologists, for the first time, to enjoy the benefits of data redundancy and quantitative uncertainty estimates. Recent work, however, has called into question the reliability of sensors on Android devices. We present here our experience with programming a new smart phone app from scratch, and using it and commercial apps on iOS devices along with analog compasses in a series of controlled tests and typical field use cases. Additionally, we document the relationships between iPhone measurements and visible structures in satellite, drawing on a database of 3700 iPhone measurements of coseismic surface cracks we made in northern Chile following the Mw8.1 Pisagua earthquake in 2014. By comparing phone-collected attitudes to orientations determined independently of the magnetic field, we avoid having to assume that the analog compass, which is subject to its own uncertainties, is the canonical instrument. Our results suggest that iOS devices are suitable for all but the most demanding applications as long as particular care is taken with respect to metal and electronic objects that could affect the magnetic field.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

2016-12-01

Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate decision making under uncertainty methods from the state of the art. We will compare the efficiency of alternative approaches to the two case studies. Finally, we will present a hybrid decision analytic tool to address the synthesis of uncertainties.

Ideas for a pattern-oriented approach towards a VERA analysis ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorgas, T.; Dorninger, M.

2010-09-01

Ideas for a pattern-oriented approach towards a VERA analysis ensemble For many applications in meteorology and especially for verification purposes it is important to have some information about the uncertainties of observation and analysis data. A high quality of these "reference data" is an absolute necessity as the uncertainties are reflected in verification measures. The VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) scheme includes a sophisticated quality control tool which accounts for the correction of observational data and provides an estimation of the observation uncertainty. It is crucial for meteorologically and physically reliable analysis fields. VERA is based on a variational principle and does not need any first guess fields. It is therefore NWP model independent and can also be used as an unbiased reference for real time model verification. For downscaling purposes VERA uses an a priori knowledge on small-scale physical processes over complex terrain, the so called "fingerprint technique", which transfers information from rich to data sparse regions. The enhanced Joint D-PHASE and COPS data set forms the data base for the analysis ensemble study. For the WWRP projects D-PHASE and COPS a joint activity has been started to collect GTS and non-GTS data from the national and regional meteorological services in Central Europe for 2007. Data from more than 11.000 stations are available for high resolution analyses. The usage of random numbers as perturbations for ensemble experiments is a common approach in meteorology. In most implementations, like for NWP-model ensemble systems, the focus lies on error growth and propagation on the spatial and temporal scale. When defining errors in analysis fields we have to consider the fact that analyses are not time dependent and that no perturbation method aimed at temporal evolution is possible. Further, the method applied should respect two major sources of analysis errors: Observation errors AND analysis or interpolation errors. With the concept of an analysis ensemble we hope to get a more detailed sight on both sources of analysis errors. For the computation of the VERA ensemble members a sample of Gaussian random perturbations is produced for each station and parameter. The deviation of perturbations is based on the correction proposals by the VERA QC scheme to provide some "natural" limits for the ensemble. In order to put more emphasis on the weather situation we aim to integrate the main synoptic field structures as weighting factors for the perturbations. Two widely approved approaches are used for the definition of these main field structures: The Principal Component Analysis and a 2D-Discrete Wavelet Transform. The results of tests concerning the implementation of this pattern-supported analysis ensemble system and a comparison of the different approaches are given in the presentation.

A game theoretic controller for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainty and its application to the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Ihnseok; Speyer, Jason L.

1990-01-01

A game theoretic controller is developed for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainties in system and input matrices. The input-output decomposition modeling for the plant uncertainty is adopted. The uncertain dynamic system is represented as an internal feedback loop in which the system is assumed forced by fictitious disturbance caused by the parameter uncertainty. By considering the input and the fictitious disturbance as two noncooperative players, a differential game problem is constructed. It is shown that the resulting time invariant controller stabilizes the uncertain system for a prescribed uncertainty bound. This game theoretic controller is applied to the momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Inclusion of the external disturbance torque to the design procedure results in a dynamical feedback controller which consists of conventional PID control and cyclic disturbance rejection filter. It is shown that the game theoretic design, comparing to the LQR design or pole placement design, improves the stability robustness with respect to inertia variations.

Quantification of uncertainties for application in detonation simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Miao; Ma, Zhibo

2016-06-01

Numerical simulation has become an important means in designing detonation systems, and the quantification of its uncertainty is also necessary to reliability certification. As to quantifying the uncertainty, it is the most important to analyze how the uncertainties occur and develop, and how the simulations develop from benchmark models to new models. Based on the practical needs of engineering and the technology of verification & validation, a framework of QU(quantification of uncertainty) is brought forward in the case that simulation is used on detonation system for scientific prediction. An example is offered to describe the general idea of quantification of simulation uncertainties.

MALIBU: A High Spatial Resolution Multi-Angle Imaging Unmanned Airborne System to Validate Satellite-derived BRDF/Albedo Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Roman, M. O.; Pahlevan, N.; Stachura, M.; McCorkel, J.; Bland, G.; Schaaf, C.

2016-12-01

Albedo is a key climate forcing variable that governs the absorption of incoming solar radiation and its ultimate transfer to the atmosphere. Albedo contributes significant uncertainties in the simulation of climate changes; and as such, it is defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as a terrestrial essential climate variable (ECV) required by global and regional climate and biogeochemical models. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center's Multi AngLe Imaging Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function small-UAS (MALIBU) is part of a series of pathfinder missions to develop enhanced multi-angular remote sensing techniques using small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS). The MALIBU instrument package includes two multispectral imagers oriented at two different viewing geometries (i.e., port and starboard sides) capture vegetation optical properties and structural characteristics. This is achieved by analyzing the surface reflectance anisotropy signal (i.e., BRDF shape) obtained from the combination of surface reflectance from different view-illumination angles and spectral channels. Satellite measures of surface albedo from MODIS, VIIRS, and Landsat have been evaluated by comparison with spatially representative albedometer data from sparsely distributed flux towers at fixed heights. However, the mismatch between the footprint of ground measurements and the satellite footprint challenges efforts at validation, especially for heterogeneous landscapes. The BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) models of surface anisotropy have only been evaluated with airborne BRDF data over a very few locations. The MALIBU platform that acquires extremely high resolution sub-meter measures of surface anisotropy and surface albedo, can thus serve as an important source of reference data to enable global land product validation efforts, and resolve the errors and uncertainties in the various existing products generated by NASA and its national and international partners.

Improved accuracy of ultrasound-guided therapies using electromagnetic tracking: in-vivo speed of sound measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samboju, Vishal; Adams, Matthew; Salgaonkar, Vasant; Diederich, Chris J.; Cunha, J. Adam M.

2017-02-01

The speed of sound (SOS) for ultrasound devices used for imaging soft tissue is often calibrated to water, 1540 m/s1 , despite in-vivo soft tissue SOS varying from 1450 to 1613 m/s2 . Images acquired with 1540 m/s and used in conjunction with stereotactic external coordinate systems can thus result in displacement errors of several millimeters. Ultrasound imaging systems are routinely used to guide interventional thermal ablation and cryoablation devices, or radiation sources for brachytherapy3 . Brachytherapy uses small radioactive pellets, inserted interstitially with needles under ultrasound guidance, to eradicate cancerous tissue4 . Since the radiation dose diminishes with distance from the pellet as 1/r2 , imaging uncertainty of a few millimeters can result in significant erroneous dose delivery5,6. Likewise, modeling of power deposition and thermal dose accumulations from ablative sources are also prone to errors due to placement offsets from SOS errors7 . This work presents a method of mitigating needle placement error due to SOS variances without the need of ionizing radiation2,8. We demonstrate the effects of changes in dosimetry in a prostate brachytherapy environment due to patientspecific SOS variances and the ability to mitigate dose delivery uncertainty. Electromagnetic (EM) sensors embedded in the brachytherapy ultrasound system provide information regarding 3D position and orientation of the ultrasound array. Algorithms using data from these two modalities are used to correct bmode images to account for SOS errors. While ultrasound localization resulted in >3 mm displacements, EM resolution was verified to <1 mm precision using custom-built phantoms with various SOS, showing 1% accuracy in SOS measurement.

Sexual-Orientation Disparities in School: The Mediational Role of Indicators of Victimization in Achievement and Truancy Because of Feeling Unsafe

PubMed Central

Russell, Stephen T.; Corliss, Heather L.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined sexual-orientation identity disparities in truancy and academic achievement, and the mediational role of victimization in a large high-school sample. Methods. We utilized pooled data, measuring sexual identity, from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavioral Surveillance System Surveys. Multilevel logistic regression modeling estimated the odds of low grades and truancy because of feeling unsafe comparing lesbian/gay, bisexual, (LGB) and unsure students to heterosexuals. We stratified models by gender. Indicators of victimization were examined to mediate the relationship between identifying as a sexual minority and school achievement or truancy. Results. LGB-identified youths reported significantly elevated odds of truancy and low grades (odds ratios = 1.6–3.2; all P < .05). Additionally, both genders noting uncertainty about their sexual identity showed increased odds of truancy. Victimization indicators mediated the relationship between identifying as a sexual minority and experiencing negative school outcomes, with greater victimization indicators being associated with increased truancy and lower grades, and the extent of mediation differed by gender. Conclusions. As early disparities in academic achievement and school engagement have indicated a lifetime of increased health and behavioral risk factors, early intervention targeting school victimization is necessary. PMID:24825216

Effect of Anisotropy on Shape Measurement Accuracy of Silicon Wafer Using Three-Point-Support Inverting Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Yukihiro; Natsu, Wataru; Kunieda, Masanori

This paper describes the influences of anisotropy found in the elastic modulus of monocrystalline silicon wafers on the measurement accuracy of the three-point-support inverting method which can measure the warp and thickness of thin large panels simultaneously. Deflection due to gravity depends on the crystal orientation relative to the positions of the three-point-supports. Thus the deviation of actual crystal orientation from the direction indicated by the notch fabricated on the wafer causes measurement errors. Numerical analysis of the deflection confirmed that the uncertainty of thickness measurement increases from 0.168µm to 0.524µm due to this measurement error. In addition, experimental results showed that the rotation of crystal orientation relative to the three-point-supports is effective for preventing wafer vibration excited by disturbance vibration because the resonance frequency of wafers can be changed. Thus, surface shape measurement accuracy was improved by preventing resonant vibration during measurement.

Improved crystal orientation and physical properties from single-shot XFEL stills

DOE PAGES

Sauter, Nicholas K.; Hattne, Johan; Brewster, Aaron S.; ...

2014-11-28

X-ray diffraction patterns from still crystals are inherently difficult to process because the crystal orientation is not uniquely determined by measuring the Bragg spot positions. Only one of the three rotational degrees of freedom is directly coupled to spot positions; the other two rotations move Bragg spots in and out of the reflecting condition but do not change the direction of the diffracted rays. This hinders the ability to recover accurate structure factors from experiments that are dependent on single-shot exposures, such as femtosecond diffract-and-destroy protocols at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). Here, additional methods are introduced to optimally model themore » diffraction. The best orientation is obtained by requiring, for the brightest observed spots, that each reciprocal-lattice point be placed into the exact reflecting condition implied by Bragg's law with a minimal rotation. This approach reduces the experimental uncertainties in noisy XFEL data, improving the crystallographic R factors and sharpening anomalous differences that are near the level of the noise.« less

Compact Optical Fiber 3D Shape Sensor Based on a Pair of Orthogonal Tilted Fiber Bragg Gratings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Dingyi; Zhou, Wenjun; Qiao, Xueguang; Albert, Jacques

2015-11-01

In this work, a compact fiber-optic 3D shape sensor consisting of two serially connected 2° tilted fiber Bragg gratings (TFBGs) is proposed, where the orientations of the grating planes of the two TFBGs are orthogonal. The measurement of the reflective transmission spectrum from the pair of TFBGs was implemented by Fresnel reflection of the cleaved fiber end. The two groups of cladding mode resonances in the reflection spectrum respond differentially to bending, which allows for the unique determination of the magnitude and orientation of the bend plane (i.e. with a ± 180 degree uncertainty). Bending responses ranging from -0.33 to + 0.21 dB/m-1 (depending on orientation) are experimentally demonstrated with bending from 0 to 3.03 m-1. In the third (axial) direction, the strain is obtained directly by the shift of the TFBG Bragg wavelengths with a sensitivity of 1.06 pm/μɛ.

Improved crystal orientation and physical properties from single-shot XFEL stills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sauter, Nicholas K.; Hattne, Johan; Brewster, Aaron S.

X-ray diffraction patterns from still crystals are inherently difficult to process because the crystal orientation is not uniquely determined by measuring the Bragg spot positions. Only one of the three rotational degrees of freedom is directly coupled to spot positions; the other two rotations move Bragg spots in and out of the reflecting condition but do not change the direction of the diffracted rays. This hinders the ability to recover accurate structure factors from experiments that are dependent on single-shot exposures, such as femtosecond diffract-and-destroy protocols at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). Here, additional methods are introduced to optimally model themore » diffraction. The best orientation is obtained by requiring, for the brightest observed spots, that each reciprocal-lattice point be placed into the exact reflecting condition implied by Bragg's law with a minimal rotation. This approach reduces the experimental uncertainties in noisy XFEL data, improving the crystallographic R factors and sharpening anomalous differences that are near the level of the noise.« less

A Multi-Band Uncertainty Set Based Robust SCUC With Spatial and Temporal Budget Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Chenxi; Wu, Lei; Wu, Hongyu

2016-11-01

The dramatic increase of renewable energy resources in recent years, together with the long-existing load forecast errors and increasingly involved price sensitive demands, has introduced significant uncertainties into power systems operation. In order to guarantee the operational security of power systems with such uncertainties, robust optimization has been extensively studied in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems, for immunizing the system against worst uncertainty realizations. However, traditional robust SCUC models with single-band uncertainty sets may yield over-conservative solutions in most cases. This paper proposes a multi-band robust model to accurately formulate various uncertainties with higher resolution. By properly tuning band intervalsmore » and weight coefficients of individual bands, the proposed multi-band robust model can rigorously and realistically reflect spatial/temporal relationships and asymmetric characteristics of various uncertainties, and in turn could effectively leverage the tradeoff between robustness and economics of robust SCUC solutions. The proposed multi-band robust SCUC model is solved by Benders decomposition (BD) and outer approximation (OA), while taking the advantage of integral property of the proposed multi-band uncertainty set. In addition, several accelerating techniques are developed for enhancing the computational performance and the convergence speed. Numerical studies on a 6-bus system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed robust SCUC approach for enhancing uncertainty modeling capabilities and mitigating conservativeness of the robust SCUC solution.« less

Quantification and propagation of disciplinary uncertainty via Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantis, George Constantine

2002-08-01

Several needs exist in the military, commercial, and civil sectors for new hypersonic systems. These needs remain unfulfilled, due in part to the uncertainty encountered in designing these systems. This uncertainty takes a number of forms, including disciplinary uncertainty, that which is inherent in the analytical tools utilized during the design process. Yet, few efforts to date empower the designer with the means to account for this uncertainty within the disciplinary analyses. In the current state-of-the-art in design, the effects of this unquantifiable uncertainty significantly increase the risks associated with new design efforts. Typically, the risk proves too great to allow a given design to proceed beyond the conceptual stage. To that end, the research encompasses the formulation and validation of a new design method, a systematic process for probabilistically assessing the impact of disciplinary uncertainty. The method implements Bayesian Statistics theory to quantify this source of uncertainty, and propagate its effects to the vehicle system level. Comparison of analytical and physical data for existing systems, modeled a priori in the given analysis tools, leads to quantification of uncertainty in those tools' calculation of discipline-level metrics. Then, after exploration of the new vehicle's design space, the quantified uncertainty is propagated probabilistically through the design space. This ultimately results in the assessment of the impact of disciplinary uncertainty on the confidence in the design solution: the final shape and variability of the probability functions defining the vehicle's system-level metrics. Although motivated by the hypersonic regime, the proposed treatment of uncertainty applies to any class of aerospace vehicle, just as the problem itself affects the design process of any vehicle. A number of computer programs comprise the environment constructed for the implementation of this work. Application to a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) reusable launch vehicle concept, developed by the NASA Langley Research Center under the Space Launch Initiative, provides the validation case for this work, with the focus placed on economics, aerothermodynamics, propulsion, and structures metrics. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Uncertainty analysis of thermocouple measurements used in normal and abnormal thermal environment experiments at Sandia's Radiant Heat Facility and Lurance Canyon Burn Site.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakos, James Thomas

2004-04-01

It would not be possible to confidently qualify weapon systems performance or validate computer codes without knowing the uncertainty of the experimental data used. This report provides uncertainty estimates associated with thermocouple data for temperature measurements from two of Sandia's large-scale thermal facilities. These two facilities (the Radiant Heat Facility (RHF) and the Lurance Canyon Burn Site (LCBS)) routinely gather data from normal and abnormal thermal environment experiments. They are managed by Fire Science & Technology Department 09132. Uncertainty analyses were performed for several thermocouple (TC) data acquisition systems (DASs) used at the RHF and LCBS. These analyses apply tomore » Type K, chromel-alumel thermocouples of various types: fiberglass sheathed TC wire, mineral-insulated, metal-sheathed (MIMS) TC assemblies, and are easily extended to other TC materials (e.g., copper-constantan). Several DASs were analyzed: (1) A Hewlett-Packard (HP) 3852A system, and (2) several National Instrument (NI) systems. The uncertainty analyses were performed on the entire system from the TC to the DAS output file. Uncertainty sources include TC mounting errors, ANSI standard calibration uncertainty for Type K TC wire, potential errors due to temperature gradients inside connectors, extension wire uncertainty, DAS hardware uncertainties including noise, common mode rejection ratio, digital voltmeter accuracy, mV to temperature conversion, analog to digital conversion, and other possible sources. Typical results for 'normal' environments (e.g., maximum of 300-400 K) showed the total uncertainty to be about {+-}1% of the reading in absolute temperature. In high temperature or high heat flux ('abnormal') thermal environments, total uncertainties range up to {+-}2-3% of the reading (maximum of 1300 K). The higher uncertainties in abnormal thermal environments are caused by increased errors due to the effects of imperfect TC attachment to the test item. 'Best practices' are provided in Section 9 to help the user to obtain the best measurements possible.« less

A Multiplex PCR Assay for Differentiating Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) From Oriental Flower Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in Early Life Stages and Excrement.

PubMed

Watanabe, S; Melzer, M J

2017-04-01

The coconut rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros (L.), is a major pest of coconut and other palm trees. An incipient coconut rhinoceros beetle population was recently discovered on the island of Oahu, Hawaii and is currently the target of a large, mutiagency eradication program. Confounding this program is the widespread presence of another scarab beetle on Oahu, the oriental flower beetle, Protaetia orientalis (Gory and Percheron 1833). Eggs, early life stages, and fecal excrement of coconut rhinoceros beetle and oriental flower beetle are morphologically indistinguishable, thereby creating uncertainty when such specimens are discovered in the field. Here, we report the development of a multiplex PCR assay targeting cytochrome oxidase I of coconut rhinoceros beetle and oriental flower beetle that can rapidly detect and distinguish between these insects. This assay also features an internal positive control to ensure DNA of sufficient quantity and quality is used in the assay, increasing its reliability and reducing the chances of false negative results. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Improved crystal orientation and physical properties from single-shot XFEL stills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sauter, Nicholas K., E-mail: nksauter@lbl.gov; Hattne, Johan; Brewster, Aaron S.

X-ray free-electron laser crystallography relies on the collection of still-shot diffraction patterns. New methods are developed for optimal modeling of the crystals’ orientations and mosaic block properties. X-ray diffraction patterns from still crystals are inherently difficult to process because the crystal orientation is not uniquely determined by measuring the Bragg spot positions. Only one of the three rotational degrees of freedom is directly coupled to spot positions; the other two rotations move Bragg spots in and out of the reflecting condition but do not change the direction of the diffracted rays. This hinders the ability to recover accurate structure factorsmore » from experiments that are dependent on single-shot exposures, such as femtosecond diffract-and-destroy protocols at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). Here, additional methods are introduced to optimally model the diffraction. The best orientation is obtained by requiring, for the brightest observed spots, that each reciprocal-lattice point be placed into the exact reflecting condition implied by Bragg’s law with a minimal rotation. This approach reduces the experimental uncertainties in noisy XFEL data, improving the crystallographic R factors and sharpening anomalous differences that are near the level of the noise.« less

Robustness analysis of non-ordinary Petri nets for flexible assembly systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Fu-Shiung

2010-05-01

Non-ordinary controlled Petri nets (NCPNs) have the advantages to model flexible assembly systems in which multiple identical resources may be required to perform an operation. However, existing studies on NCPNs are still limited. For example, the robustness properties of NCPNs have not been studied. This motivates us to develop an analysis method for NCPNs. Robustness analysis concerns the ability for a system to maintain operation in the presence of uncertainties. It provides an alternative way to analyse a perturbed system without reanalysis. In our previous research, we have analysed the robustness properties of several subclasses of ordinary controlled Petri nets. To study the robustness properties of NCPNs, we augment NCPNs with an uncertainty model, which specifies an upper bound on the uncertainties for each reachable marking. The resulting PN models are called non-ordinary controlled Petri nets with uncertainties (NCPNU). Based on NCPNU, the problem is to characterise the maximal tolerable uncertainties for each reachable marking. The computational complexities to characterise maximal tolerable uncertainties for each reachable marking grow exponentially with the size of the nets. Instead of considering general NCPNU, we limit our scope to a subclass of PN models called non-ordinary controlled flexible assembly Petri net with uncertainties (NCFAPNU) for assembly systems and study its robustness. We will extend the robustness analysis to NCFAPNU. We identify two types of uncertainties under which the liveness of NCFAPNU can be maintained.

Carbon outcomes of major land-cover transitions in SE Asia: great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications.

PubMed

Ziegler, Alan D; Phelps, Jacob; Yuen, Jia Qi; Webb, Edward L; Lawrence, Deborah; Fox, Jeff M; Bruun, Thilde B; Leisz, Stephen J; Ryan, Casey M; Dressler, Wolfram; Mertz, Ole; Pascual, Unai; Padoch, Christine; Koh, Lian Pin

2012-10-01

Policy makers across the tropics propose that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture (slash-and-burn or shifting cultivation) to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. However, there is little certainty regarding the carbon outcomes of many key land-use transitions at the center of current policy debates. Our meta-analysis of over 250 studies reporting above- and below-ground carbon estimates for different land-use types indicates great uncertainty in the net total ecosystem carbon changes that can be expected from many transitions, including the replacement of various types of swidden agriculture with oil palm, rubber, or some other types of agroforestry systems. These transitions are underway throughout Southeast Asia, and are at the heart of REDD+ debates. Exceptions of unambiguous carbon outcomes are the abandonment of any type of agriculture to allow forest regeneration (a certain positive carbon outcome) and expansion of agriculture into mature forest (a certain negative carbon outcome). With respect to swiddening, our meta-analysis supports a reassessment of policies that encourage land-cover conversion away from these [especially long-fallow] systems to other more cash-crop-oriented systems producing ambiguous carbon stock changes - including oil palm and rubber. In some instances, lengthening fallow periods of an existing swidden system may produce substantial carbon benefits, as would conversion from intensely cultivated lands to high-biomass plantations and some other types of agroforestry. More field studies are needed to provide better data of above- and below-ground carbon stocks before informed recommendations or policy decisions can be made regarding which land-use regimes optimize or increase carbon sequestration. As some transitions may negatively impact other ecosystem services, food security, and local livelihoods, the entire carbon and noncarbon benefit stream should also be taken into account before prescribing transitions with ambiguous carbon benefits. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Elizabeth; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Mendoza, Pablo; Newman, Andy; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

In an automated forecast system, hydrologic data assimilation (DA) performs the valuable function of correcting raw simulated watershed model states to better represent external observations, including measurements of streamflow, snow, soil moisture, and the like. Yet the incorporation of automated DA into operational forecasting systems has been a long-standing challenge due to the complexities of the hydrologic system, which include numerous lags between state and output variations. To help demonstrate that such methods can succeed in operational automated implementations, we present results from the real-time application of an ensemble particle filter (PF) for short-range (7 day lead) ensemble flow forecasts in western US river basins. We use the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in collaboration with the University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. SHARP is a fully automated platform for short-term to seasonal hydrologic forecasting applications, incorporating uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions through ensemble methods. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 temperature and precipitation time series through conceptual and physically-oriented models. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. The PF selects and/or weights and resamples the IHCs that are most consistent with external streamflow observations, and uses the particles to initialize a streamflow forecast ensemble driven by ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). We apply this method in real-time for several basins in the western US that are important for water resources management, and perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts skill. This presentation describes findings, including a comparison of sequential and non-sequential particle weighting methods.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

2013-12-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, directmore » and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Mark E.; Crawley, Edward F.

1996-01-01

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

Societal individualism-collectivism and uncertainty avoidance as cultural moderators of relationships between job resources and strain.

PubMed

Jang, Seulki; Shen, Winny; Allen, Tammy D; Zhang, Haiyan

2018-05-01

The job demands-resources model is a dominant theoretical framework that describes the influence of job demands and job resources on employee strain. Recent research has highlighted that the effects of job demands on strain vary across cultures, but similar work has not explored whether this is true for job resources. Given that societal characteristics can influence individuals' cognitive structures and, to a lesser extent, values in a culture, we address this gap in the literature and argue that individuals' strain in reaction to job resources may differ across cultures. Specifically, we theorize that the societal cultural dimensions of individualism-collectivism and uncertainty avoidance shape individual-level job resource-strain relationships, as they dictate which types of resources (i.e., individual vs. group preference-oriented and uncertainty-reducing vs. not) are more likely to be valued, used, or effective in combating strain within a culture. Results revealed that societal individualism-collectivism and uncertainty avoidance independently moderated the relationships between certain job resources (i.e., job control, participation in decision making, and clear goals and performance feedback) and strain (i.e., job satisfaction and turnover intentions). This study expands our understanding of the cross-cultural specificity versus generalizability of the job demands-resources model.

Observation of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation under open systems, and its steering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng-Fei; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

Quantum objects are susceptible to noise from their surrounding environments, interaction with which inevitably gives rise to quantum decoherence or dissipation effects. In this work, we examine how different types of local noise under an open system affect entropic uncertainty relations for two incompatible measurements. Explicitly, we observe the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory under two canonical categories of noisy environments: unital (phase flip) and nonunital (amplitude damping). Our study shows that the measurement uncertainty exhibits a non-monotonic dynamical behavior—that is, the amount of the uncertainty will first inflate, and subsequently decrease, with the growth of decoherence strengths in the two channels. In contrast, the uncertainty decreases monotonically with the growth of the purity of the initial state shared in prior. In order to reduce the measurement uncertainty in noisy environments, we put forward a remarkably effective strategy to steer the magnitude of uncertainty by means of a local non-unitary operation (i.e. weak measurement) on the qubit of interest. It turns out that this non-unitary operation can greatly reduce the entropic uncertainty, upon tuning the operation strength. Our investigations might thereby offer an insight into the dynamics and steering of entropic uncertainty in open systems.

Determining the nuclear data uncertainty on MONK10 and WIMS10 criticality calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ware, Tim; Dobson, Geoff; Hanlon, David; Hiles, Richard; Mason, Robert; Perry, Ray

2017-09-01

The ANSWERS Software Service is developing a number of techniques to better understand and quantify uncertainty on calculations of the neutron multiplication factor, k-effective, in nuclear fuel and other systems containing fissile material. The uncertainty on the calculated k-effective arises from a number of sources, including nuclear data uncertainties, manufacturing tolerances, modelling approximations and, for Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic uncertainty. For determining the uncertainties due to nuclear data, a set of application libraries have been generated for use with the MONK10 Monte Carlo and the WIMS10 deterministic criticality and reactor physics codes. This paper overviews the generation of these nuclear data libraries by Latin hypercube sampling of JEFF-3.1.2 evaluated data based upon a library of covariance data taken from JEFF, ENDF/B, JENDL and TENDL evaluations. Criticality calculations have been performed with MONK10 and WIMS10 using these sampled libraries for a number of benchmark models of fissile systems. Results are presented which show the uncertainty on k-effective for these systems arising from the uncertainty on the input nuclear data.

Assessment of meteorological uncertainties as they apply to the ASCENDS mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snell, H. E.; Zaccheo, S.; Chase, A.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

2011-12-01

Many environment-oriented remote sensing and modeling applications require precise knowledge of the atmospheric state (temperature, pressure, water vapor, surface pressure, etc.) on a fine spatial grid with a comprehensive understanding of the associated errors. Coincident atmospheric state measurements may be obtained via co-located remote sensing instruments or by extracting these data from ancillary models. The appropriate technique for a given application depends upon the required accuracy. State-of-the-art mesoscale/regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operate on spatial scales of a few kilometers resolution, and global scale NWP models operate on scales of tens of kilometers. Remote sensing measurements may be made on spatial scale comparable to the measurement of interest. These measurements normally require a separate sensor, which increases the overall size, weight, power and complexity of the satellite payload. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of the errors associated with each of these approaches is a critical part of the design/characterization of a remote-sensing system whose measurement accuracy depends on knowledge of the atmospheric state. One of the requirements as part of the overall ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) mission development is to develop a consistent set of atmospheric state variables (vertical temperature and water vapor profiles, and surface pressure) for use in helping to constrain overall retrieval error budget. If the error budget requires tighter uncertainties on ancillary atmospheric parameters than can be provided by NWP models and analyses, additional sensors may be required to reduce the overall measurement error and meet mission requirements. To this end we have used NWP models and reanalysis information to generate a set of atmospheric profiles which contain reasonable variability. This data consists of a "truth" set and a companion "measured" set of profiles. The truth set contains climatologically-relevant profiles of pressure, temperature and humidity with an accompanying surface pressure. The measured set consists of some number of instances of the truth set which have been perturbed to represent realistic measurement uncertainty for the truth profile using measurement error covariance matrices. The primary focus has been to develop matrices derived using information about the profile retrieval accuracy as documented for on-orbit sensor systems including AIRS, AMSU, ATMS, and CrIS. Surface pressure variability and uncertainty was derived from globally-compiled station pressure information. We generated an additional measurement set of profiles which represent the overall error within NWP models. These profile sets will allow for comprehensive trade studies for sensor system design and provide a basis for setting measurement requirements for co-located temperature, humidity sounders, determine the utility of NWP data to either replace or supplement collocated measurements, and to assess the overall end-to-end system performance of the sensor system. In this presentation we discuss the process by which we created these data sets and show their utility in performing trade studies for sensor system concepts and designs.

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowder, Marianne; deCallafon, Raymond (Principal Investigator)

2002-01-01

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

Transmutation of Radioactive Nuclear Waste — Present Status and Requirement for the Problem-Oriented Nuclear Database: Approach to Scheduling the Experiments (Reactor, Target, Blanket)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artisyuk, V.; Ignatyuk, A.; Korovin, Yu.; Lopatkin, A.; Matveenko, I.; Stankovskiy, A.; Titarenko, Yu.

2005-05-01

Transmutation of nuclear wastes (Minor Actinides and Long-Lived Fission Products) remains an important option to reduce the burden of high-level waste on final waste disposal in deep geological structures. Accelerator-Driven Systems (ADS) are considered as possible candidates to perform transmutation due to their subcritical operation mode that eliminates some of the serious safety penalties unavoidable in critical reactors. Specific requirements to nuclear data necessary for ADS transmutation analysis is the main subject of the ISTC Project ♯2578 which started in 2004 to identify the areas of research priorities in the future. The present paper gives a summary of ongoing project stressing the importance of nuclear data for blanket performance (reactivity behavior with associated safety characteristics) and uncertainties that affect characteristics of neutron producing target.

Phase space dynamics and control of the quantum particles associated to hypergraph states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berec, Vesna

2015-05-01

As today's nanotechnology focus becomes primarily oriented toward production and manipulation of materials at the subatomic level, allowing the performance and complexity of interconnects where the device density accepts more than hundreds devices on a single chip, the manipulation of semiconductor nanostructures at the subatomic level sets its prime tasks on preserving and adequate transmission of information encoded in specified (quantum) states. The presented study employs the quantum communication protocol based on the hypergraph network model where the numerical solutions of equations of motion of quantum particles are associated to vertices (assembled with device chip), which follow specific controllable paths in the phase space. We address these findings towards ultimate quest for prediction and selective control of quantum particle trajectories. In addition, presented protocols could represent valuable tool for reducing background noise and uncertainty in low-dimensional and operationally meaningful, scalable complex systems.

A hierarchical, ontology-driven Bayesian concept for ubiquitous medical environments--a case study for pulmonary diseases.

PubMed

Maragoudakis, Manolis; Lymberopoulos, Dimitrios; Fakotakis, Nikos; Spiropoulos, Kostas

2008-01-01

The present paper extends work on an existing computer-based Decision Support System (DSS) that aims to provide assistance to physicians as regards to pulmonary diseases. The extension deals with allowing for a hierarchical decomposition of the task, at different levels of domain granularity, using a novel approach, i.e. Hierarchical Bayesian Networks. The proposed framework uses data from various networking appliances such as mobile phones and wireless medical sensors to establish a ubiquitous environment for medical treatment of pulmonary diseases. Domain knowledge is encoded at the upper levels of the hierarchy, thus making the process of generalization easier to accomplish. The experimental results were carried out under the Pulmonary Department, University Regional Hospital Patras, Patras, Greece. They have supported our initial beliefs about the ability of Bayesian networks to provide an effective, yet semantically-oriented, means of prognosis and reasoning under conditions of uncertainty.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE PAGES

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

Uncertainties in historical pollution data from sedimentary records from an Australian urban floodplain lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintern, A.; Leahy, P.; Deletic, A.; Heijnis, H.; Zawadzki, A.; Gadd, P.; McCarthy, D.

2018-05-01

Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

Algorithms and Object-Oriented Software for Distributed Physics-Based Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenton, Marc A.

2001-01-01

The project seeks to develop methods to more efficiently simulate aerospace vehicles. The goals are to reduce model development time, increase accuracy (e.g.,by allowing the integration of multidisciplinary models), facilitate collaboration by geographically- distributed groups of engineers, support uncertainty analysis and optimization, reduce hardware costs, and increase execution speeds. These problems are the subject of considerable contemporary research (e.g., Biedron et al. 1999; Heath and Dick, 2000).

Solar wind parameters and magnetospheric coupling studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Joseph H.

1986-01-01

This paper presents distributions, means, and standard deviations of the fluxes of solar wind protons, momentum, and energy as observed near earth during the solar quiet and active years 1976 and 1979. Distributions of ratios of energies (Alfven Mach number, plasma beta) and distributions of interplanetary magnetic field orientations are also given. Finally, the uncertainties associated with the use of the libration point orbiting ISEE-3 spacecraft as a solar wind monitor are discussed.

U.S. Army’s Role in the Asia-Pacific: Rebalancing Across the Pacific Rim

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

asset that serves the U.S. interest in projecting power and preventing the emergence of a regional hegemony .14 Although EUSA has been largely...Power Distance, Uncertainty Avoidance, Individualism, Masculinity and Long-term Orientation, which collectively can be used to distinguish 8 how... Masculinity as the “degree to which values like assertiveness, performance and competition prevail over values like quality of life, warm personal

Methodology for comparing worldwide performance of diverse weight-constrained high energy laser systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartell, Richard J.; Perram, Glen P.; Fiorino, Steven T.; Long, Scott N.; Houle, Marken J.; Rice, Christopher A.; Manning, Zachary P.; Bunch, Dustin W.; Krizo, Matthew J.; Gravley, Liesebet E.

2005-06-01

The Air Force Institute of Technology's Center for Directed Energy has developed a software model, the High Energy Laser End-to-End Operational Simulation (HELEEOS), under the sponsorship of the High Energy Laser Joint Technology Office (JTO), to facilitate worldwide comparisons across a broad range of expected engagement scenarios of expected performance of a diverse range of weight-constrained high energy laser system types. HELEEOS has been designed to meet JTO's goals of supporting a broad range of analyses applicable to the operational requirements of all the military services, constraining weapon effectiveness through accurate engineering performance assessments allowing its use as an investment strategy tool, and the establishment of trust among military leaders. HELEEOS is anchored to respected wave optics codes and all significant degradation effects, including thermal blooming and optical turbulence, are represented in the model. The model features operationally oriented performance metrics, e.g. dwell time required to achieve a prescribed probability of kill and effective range. Key features of HELEEOS include estimation of the level of uncertainty in the calculated Pk and generation of interactive nomographs to allow the user to further explore a desired parameter space. Worldwide analyses are enabled at five wavelengths via recently available databases capturing climatological, seasonal, diurnal, and geographical spatial-temporal variability in atmospheric parameters including molecular and aerosol absorption and scattering profiles and optical turbulence strength. Examples are provided of the impact of uncertainty in weight-power relationships, coupled with operating condition variability, on results of performance comparisons between chemical and solid state lasers.

Application of fuzzy system theory in addressing the presence of uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusmye, A. Y. N.; Goh, B. Y.; Adnan, N. F.; Ariffin, A. K.

2015-02-01

In this paper, the combinations of fuzzy system theory with the finite element methods are present and discuss to deal with the uncertainties. The present of uncertainties is needed to avoid for prevent the failure of the material in engineering. There are three types of uncertainties, which are stochastic, epistemic and error uncertainties. In this paper, the epistemic uncertainties have been considered. For the epistemic uncertainty, it exists as a result of incomplete information and lack of knowledge or data. Fuzzy system theory is a non-probabilistic method, and this method is most appropriate to interpret the uncertainty compared to statistical approach when the deal with the lack of data. Fuzzy system theory contains a number of processes started from converting the crisp input to fuzzy input through fuzzification process and followed by the main process known as mapping process. The term mapping here means that the logical relationship between two or more entities. In this study, the fuzzy inputs are numerically integrated based on extension principle method. In the final stage, the defuzzification process is implemented. Defuzzification is an important process to allow the conversion of the fuzzy output to crisp outputs. Several illustrative examples are given and from the simulation, the result showed that propose the method produces more conservative results comparing with the conventional finite element method.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis; Ilie, Marcel; Schallhorn, Paul

2014-01-01

Spacecraft components may be damaged due to airflow produced by Environmental Control Systems (ECS). There are uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to predict the flow field around a spacecraft from the ECS System. This paper describes an approach to estimate the uncertainty in using CFD to predict the airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft.

Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.; Brown, Gareth.

2016-04-01

Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annual energy production prediction. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation.

Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Brown, G.

2015-10-01

Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annual energy production. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation when arc scans are used for wind resource assessment.

DESIGN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY HIGH-TEMPERATURE GAS-COOLED TEST REACTOR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sterbentz, James; Bayless, Paul; Strydom, Gerhard

2016-11-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an indispensable element of any substantial attempt in reactor simulation validation. The quantification of uncertainties in nuclear engineering has grown more important and the IAEA Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) initiated in 2012 aims to investigate the various uncertainty quantification methodologies for this type of reactors. The first phase of the CRP is dedicated to the estimation of cell and lattice model uncertainties due to the neutron cross sections co-variances. Phase II is oriented towards the investigation of propagated uncertainties from the lattice to the coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics core calculations.more » Nominal results for the prismatic single block (Ex.I-2a) and super cell models (Ex.I-2c) have been obtained using the SCALE 6.1.3 two-dimensional lattice code NEWT coupled to the TRITON sequence for cross section generation. In this work, the TRITON/NEWT-flux-weighted cross sections obtained for Ex.I-2a and various models of Ex.I-2c is utilized to perform a sensitivity analysis of the MHTGR-350 core power densities and eigenvalues. The core solutions are obtained with the INL coupled code PHISICS/RELAP5-3D, utilizing a fixed-temperature feedback for Ex. II-1a.. It is observed that the core power density does not vary significantly in shape, but the magnitude of these variations increases as the moderator-to-fuel ratio increases in the super cell lattice models.« less

Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad

Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.

Controlled Ascent From the Surface of an Asteroid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Haijun; Roithmayr, Carlos M.; Cornelius, David M.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently investigating a conceptual robotic mission to collect a small boulder up to 4 m in diameter resting on the surface of a large Near Earth Asteroid (NEA). Because most NEAs are not well characterized, a great range of uncertainties in boulder mass properties and NEA surface characteristics must be considered in the design of this mission. These uncertainties are especially significant when the spacecraft ascends with the boulder in tow. The most important requirement during ascent is to keep the spacecraft in an upright posture to maintain healthy ground clearances for the two large solar arrays. This paper focuses on the initial stage (the first 50 m) of ascent from the surface. Specifically, it presents a sensitivity study of the solar array ground clearance, control authority, and accelerations at the array tips in the presence of a variety of uncertainties including various boulder sizes, densities, shapes and orientations, locations of the true center of mass, and push-off force distributions. Results are presented, and appropriate operations are recommended in the event some of the off-nominal cases occur.

Length measurement and spatial orientation reconstruction of single nanowires.

PubMed

Prestopino, Giuseppe; Orsini, Andrea; Falconi, Christian; Bietti, Sergio; Verona-Rinati, Gianluca; Caselli, Federica; Bisegna, Paolo

2018-06-27

The accurate determination of the geometrical features of quasi one-dimensional nanostructures is mandatory for reducing errors and improving repeatability in the estimation of a number of geometry-dependent properties in nanotechnology. In this paper a method for the reconstruction of length and spatial orientation of single nanowires is presented. Those quantities are calculated from a sequence of scanning electron microscope images taken at different tilt angles using a simple 3D geometric model. The proposed method is evaluated on a collection of scanning electron microscope images of single GaAs nanowires. It is validated through the reconstruction of known geometric features of a standard reference calibration pattern. An overall uncertainty of about 1% in the estimated length of the nanowires is achieved. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

2018-06-01

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Progress of Aircraft System Noise Assessment with Uncertainty Quantification for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Russell H.; Burley, Casey L.; Guo, Yueping

2016-01-01

Aircraft system noise predictions have been performed for NASA modeled hybrid wing body aircraft advanced concepts with 2025 entry-into-service technology assumptions. The system noise predictions developed over a period from 2009 to 2016 as a result of improved modeling of the aircraft concepts, design changes, technology development, flight path modeling, and the use of extensive integrated system level experimental data. In addition, the system noise prediction models and process have been improved in many ways. An additional process is developed here for quantifying the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level. This uncertainty applies only to the aircraft system noise prediction process. For three points in time during this period, the vehicle designs, technologies, and noise prediction process are documented. For each of the three predictions, and with the information available at each of those points in time, the uncertainty is quantified using the direct Monte Carlo method with 10,000 simulations. For the prediction of cumulative noise of an advanced aircraft at the conceptual level of design, the total uncertainty band has been reduced from 12.2 to 9.6 EPNL dB. A value of 3.6 EPNL dB is proposed as the lower limit of uncertainty possible for the cumulative system noise prediction of an advanced aircraft concept.

Power oscillation suppression by robust SMES in power system with large wind power penetration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngamroo, Issarachai; Cuk Supriyadi, A. N.; Dechanupaprittha, Sanchai; Mitani, Yasunori

2009-01-01

The large penetration of wind farm into interconnected power systems may cause the severe problem of tie-line power oscillations. To suppress power oscillations, the superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) which is able to control active and reactive powers simultaneously, can be applied. On the other hand, several generating and loading conditions, variation of system parameters, etc., cause uncertainties in the system. The SMES controller designed without considering system uncertainties may fail to suppress power oscillations. To enhance the robustness of SMES controller against system uncertainties, this paper proposes a robust control design of SMES by taking system uncertainties into account. The inverse additive perturbation is applied to represent the unstructured system uncertainties and included in power system modeling. The configuration of active and reactive power controllers is the first-order lead-lag compensator with single input feedback. To tune the controller parameters, the optimization problem is formulated based on the enhancement of robust stability margin. The particle swarm optimization is used to solve the problem and achieve the controller parameters. Simulation studies in the six-area interconnected power system with wind farms confirm the robustness of the proposed SMES under various operating conditions.

Retrieving Enduring Spatial Representations after Disorientation

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoou; Mou, Weimin; McNamara, Timothy P.

2012-01-01

Four experiments tested whether there are enduring spatial representations of objects’ locations in memory. Previous studies have shown that under certain conditions the internal consistency of pointing to objects using memory is disrupted by disorientation. This disorientation effect has been attributed to an absence of or to imprecise enduring spatial representations of objects’ locations. Experiment 1 replicated the standard disorientation effect. Participants learned locations of objects in an irregular layout and then pointed to objects after physically turning to face an object and after disorientation. The expected disorientation was observed. In Experiment 2, after disorientation, participants were asked to imagine they were facing the original learning direction and then physically turned to adopt the test orientation. In Experiment 3, after disorientation, participants turned to adopt the test orientation and then were informed of the original viewing direction by the experimenter. A disorientation effect was not observed in Experiment 2 or 3. In Experiment 4, after disorientation, participants turned to face the test orientation but were not told the original learning orientation. As in Experiment 1, a disorientation effect was observed. These results suggest that there are enduring spatial representations of objects’ locations specified in terms of a spatial reference direction parallel to the learning view, and that the disorientation effect is caused by uncertainty in recovering the spatial reference direction relative to the testing orientation following disorientation. PMID:22682765

A high-precision velocity measuring system design for projectiles based on S-shaped laser screen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huayi; Qian, Zheng; Yu, Hao; Li, Yutao

2018-03-01

The high-precision measurement of the velocity of high-speed flying projectile is of great significance for the evaluation and development of modern weapons. The velocity of the high-speed flying projectile is usually measured by laser screen velocity measuring system. But this method cannot achieve the repeated measurements, so we cannot make an indepth evaluation of the uncertainty about the measuring system. This paper presents a design based on S-shaped laser screen velocity measuring system. This design can achieve repeated measurements. Therefore, it can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the velocity measuring system. In addition, we made a detailed analysis of the uncertainty of the measuring system. The measurement uncertainty is 0.2% when the velocity of the projectile is about 200m/s.

Adaptive robust fault-tolerant control for linear MIMO systems with unmatched uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kangkang; Jiang, Bin; Yan, Xing-Gang; Mao, Zehui

2017-10-01

In this paper, two novel fault-tolerant control design approaches are proposed for linear MIMO systems with actuator additive faults, multiplicative faults and unmatched uncertainties. For time-varying multiplicative and additive faults, new adaptive laws and additive compensation functions are proposed. A set of conditions is developed such that the unmatched uncertainties are compensated by actuators in control. On the other hand, for unmatched uncertainties with their projection in unmatched space being not zero, based on a (vector) relative degree condition, additive functions are designed to compensate for the uncertainties from output channels in the presence of actuator faults. The developed fault-tolerant control schemes are applied to two aircraft systems to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches.

Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

2013-12-01

The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

Robust control of seismically excited cable stayed bridges with MR dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

YeganehFallah, Arash; Khajeh Ahamd Attari, Nader

2017-03-01

In recent decades active and semi-active structural control are becoming attractive alternatives for enhancing performance of civil infrastructures subjected to seismic and winds loads. However, in order to have reliable active and semi-active control, there is a need to include information of uncertainties in design of the controller. In real world for civil structures, parameters such as loading places, stiffness, mass and damping are time variant and uncertain. These uncertainties in many cases model as parametric uncertainties. The motivation of this research is to design a robust controller for attenuating the vibrational responses of civil infrastructures, regarding their dynamical uncertainties. Uncertainties in structural dynamic’s parameters are modeled as affine uncertainties in state space modeling. These uncertainties are decoupled from the system through Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) and are assumed to be unknown input to the system but norm bounded. The robust H ∞ controller is designed for the decoupled system to regulate the evaluation outputs and it is robust to effects of uncertainties, disturbance and sensors noise. The cable stayed bridge benchmark which is equipped with MR damper is considered for the numerical simulation. The simulated results show that the proposed robust controller can effectively mitigate undesired uncertainties effects on systems’ responds under seismic loading.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

PubMed

Aikman, David; Barrett, Philip; Kapadia, Sujit; King, Mervyn; Proudman, James; Taylor, Tim; de Weymarn, Iain; Yates, Tony

2011-12-13

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.

SU-F-BRA-12: End-User Oriented Tools and Procedures for Testing Brachytherapy TPSs Employing MBDCAs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peppa, V; Pappas, E; Lahanas, V

2015-06-15

Purpose: To develop user-oriented tools for commissioning and dosimetry testing of {sup 192}Ir brachytherapy treatment planning systems (TPSs) employing model based dose calculation algorithms (MBDCAs). Methods: A software tool (BrachyGuide) has been developed for the automatic generation of MCNP6 input files from any CT based plan exported in DICOM RT format from Elekta and Varian TPSs. BrachyGuide also facilitates the evaluation of imported Monte Carlo (MC) and TPS dose distributions in terms of % dose differences and gamma index (CT overlaid colormaps or relative frequency plots) as well as DVHs and related indices. For users not equipped to perform MC,more » a set of computational models was prepared in DICOM format, accompanied by treatment plans and corresponding MCNP6 generated reference data. BrachyGuide can then be used to compare institutional and reference data as per TG186. The model set includes a water sphere with the MBDCA WG {sup 192}Ir source placed centrically and in two eccentric positions, a water sphere with cubic bone and lung inhomogeneities and a five source dwells plan, and a patient equivalent model with an Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) plan. Results: The tools developed were used for the dosimetry testing of the Acuros and ACE MBDCAs implemented in BrachyVision v.13 and Oncentra Brachy v.4.5, respectively. Findings were consistent with previous results in the literature. Besides points close to the source dwells, Acuros was found to agree within type A uncertainties with the reference MC results. Differences greater than MC type A uncertainty were observed for ACE at distances >5cm from the source dwells and in bone. Conclusion: The tools developed are efficient for brachytherapy MBDCA planning commissioning and testing. Since they are appropriate for distribution over the web, they will be put at the AAPM WG MBDCA’s disposal. Research co-financed by the ESF and Greek funds. NSRF operational Program: Education and Lifelong Learning Investing in Knowledge Society-Aristeia. Varian Medical Systems and Nucletron, an Elekta company provided access to TPSs for research purposes. Miss Peppa was supported by IKY-fellowships of excellence for postgraduate studies in Greece,Siemens Program.« less

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been donemore » in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.« less

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

PubMed

Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

2018-02-02

The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

94035, USA abhinav.saxena@nasa.gov ABSTRACT Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life ( EOL ) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due...future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL . Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of...uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in

Application of fuzzy system theory in addressing the presence of uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yusmye, A. Y. N.; Goh, B. Y.; Adnan, N. F.

In this paper, the combinations of fuzzy system theory with the finite element methods are present and discuss to deal with the uncertainties. The present of uncertainties is needed to avoid for prevent the failure of the material in engineering. There are three types of uncertainties, which are stochastic, epistemic and error uncertainties. In this paper, the epistemic uncertainties have been considered. For the epistemic uncertainty, it exists as a result of incomplete information and lack of knowledge or data. Fuzzy system theory is a non-probabilistic method, and this method is most appropriate to interpret the uncertainty compared to statisticalmore » approach when the deal with the lack of data. Fuzzy system theory contains a number of processes started from converting the crisp input to fuzzy input through fuzzification process and followed by the main process known as mapping process. The term mapping here means that the logical relationship between two or more entities. In this study, the fuzzy inputs are numerically integrated based on extension principle method. In the final stage, the defuzzification process is implemented. Defuzzification is an important process to allow the conversion of the fuzzy output to crisp outputs. Several illustrative examples are given and from the simulation, the result showed that propose the method produces more conservative results comparing with the conventional finite element method.« less

Linear, multivariable robust control with a mu perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Packard, Andy; Doyle, John; Balas, Gary

1993-01-01

The structured singular value is a linear algebra tool developed to study a particular class of matrix perturbation problems arising in robust feedback control of multivariable systems. These perturbations are called linear fractional, and are a natural way to model many types of uncertainty in linear systems, including state-space parameter uncertainty, multiplicative and additive unmodeled dynamics uncertainty, and coprime factor and gap metric uncertainty. The structured singular value theory provides a natural extension of classical SISO robustness measures and concepts to MIMO systems. The structured singular value analysis, coupled with approximate synthesis methods, make it possible to study the tradeoff between performance and uncertainty that occurs in all feedback systems. In MIMO systems, the complexity of the spatial interactions in the loop gains make it difficult to heuristically quantify the tradeoffs that must occur. This paper examines the role played by the structured singular value (and its computable bounds) in answering these questions, as well as its role in the general robust, multivariable control analysis and design problem.

Optimal Wind Power Uncertainty Intervals for Electricity Market Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Ying; Zhou, Zhi; Botterud, Audun

It is important to select an appropriate uncertainty level of the wind power forecast for power system scheduling and electricity market operation. Traditional methods hedge against a predefined level of wind power uncertainty, such as a specific confidence interval or uncertainty set, which leaves the questions of how to best select the appropriate uncertainty levels. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a model to optimize the forecast uncertainty intervals of wind power for power system scheduling problems, with the aim of achieving the best trade-off between economics and reliability. Then we reformulate and linearize the models into a mixedmore » integer linear programming (MILP) without strong assumptions on the shape of the probability distribution. In order to invest the impacts on cost, reliability, and prices in a electricity market, we apply the proposed model on a twosettlement electricity market based on a six-bus test system and on a power system representing the U.S. state of Illinois. The results show that the proposed method can not only help to balance the economics and reliability of the power system scheduling, but also help to stabilize the energy prices in electricity market operation.« less

Evaluation of Effective Sources in Uncertainty Measurements of Personal Dosimetry by a Harshaw TLD System

PubMed Central

Hosseini Pooya, SM; Orouji, T

2014-01-01

Background: The accurate results of the individual doses in personal dosimety which are reported by the service providers in personal dosimetry are very important. There are national / international criteria for acceptable dosimetry system performance. Objective: In this research, the sources of uncertainties are identified, measured and calculated in a personal dosimetry system by TLD. Method: These sources are included; inhomogeneity of TLDs sensitivity, variability of TLD readings due to limited sensitivity and background, energy dependence, directional dependence, non-linearity of the response, fading, dependent on ambient temperature / humidity and calibration errors, which may affect on the dose responses. Some parameters which influence on the above sources of uncertainty are studied for Harshaw TLD-100 cards dosimeters as well as the hot gas Harshaw 6600 TLD reader system. Results: The individual uncertainties of each sources was measured less than 6.7% in 68% confidence level. The total uncertainty was calculated 17.5% with 95% confidence level. Conclusion: The TLD-100 personal dosimeters as well as the Harshaw TLD-100 reader 6600 system show the total uncertainty value which is less than that of admissible value of 42% for personal dosimetry services. PMID:25505769

Gender variance in childhood and sexual orientation in adulthood: a prospective study.

PubMed

Steensma, Thomas D; van der Ende, Jan; Verhulst, Frank C; Cohen-Kettenis, Peggy T

2013-11-01

Several retrospective and prospective studies have reported on the association between childhood gender variance and sexual orientation and gender discomfort in adulthood. In most of the retrospective studies, samples were drawn from the general population. The samples in the prospective studies consisted of clinically referred children. In understanding the extent to which the association applies for the general population, prospective studies using random samples are needed. This prospective study examined the association between childhood gender variance, and sexual orientation and gender discomfort in adulthood in the general population. In 1983, we measured childhood gender variance, in 406 boys and 473 girls. In 2007, sexual orientation and gender discomfort were assessed. Childhood gender variance was measured with two items from the Child Behavior Checklist/4-18. Sexual orientation was measured for four parameters of sexual orientation (attraction, fantasy, behavior, and identity). Gender discomfort was assessed by four questions (unhappiness and/or uncertainty about one's gender, wish or desire to be of the other gender, and consideration of living in the role of the other gender). For both men and women, the presence of childhood gender variance was associated with homosexuality for all four parameters of sexual orientation, but not with bisexuality. The report of adulthood homosexuality was 8 to 15 times higher for participants with a history of gender variance (10.2% to 12.2%), compared to participants without a history of gender variance (1.2% to 1.7%). The presence of childhood gender variance was not significantly associated with gender discomfort in adulthood. This study clearly showed a significant association between childhood gender variance and a homosexual sexual orientation in adulthood in the general population. In contrast to the findings in clinically referred gender-variant children, the presence of a homosexual sexual orientation in adulthood was substantially lower. © 2012 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Orientations and Relative Shear-strain Response Coefficients for PBO Gladwin Tensor Strainmeters from Teleseismic Love Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeloffs, E. A.

2016-12-01

A Gladwin Tensor Strainmeter (GTSM) is designed to measure changes of the horizontal strain tensor, derived as linear combinations of radial elongations or contractions of the strainmeter's cylindrical housing measured at four azimuths. Each radial measurement responds to changes in the areal, horizontal shear and vertical components of the strain tensor in the surrounding formation. The elastic response coefficients to these components depend on the relative elastic moduli of the housing, formation, and cement. These coefficients must be inferred for each strainmeter after it is cemented into its borehole by analyzing the instrument response to well-characterized strain signals such as earth tides. For some GTSMs of the Earthscope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), however, reconciling observed earth-tide signals with modeled tidal strains requires response coefficients that differ substantially between the instrument's four gauges, and/or orientation corrections of tens of degrees. GTSM response coefficients can also be estimated from high-resolution records of teleseismic Love waves from great earthquakes around the world. Such records can be used in conjunction with apparent propagation azimuths from nearby broadband seismic stations to determine the GTSM's orientation. Knowing the orientation allows the ratios between the shear strain response coefficients of a GTSM's four gauges to be estimated. Applying this analysis to 14 PBO GTSMs confirms that orientations of some instruments differ significantly from orientations measured during installation. Orientations inferred from earth-tide response tend to agree with those inferred from Love waves for GTSMs far from tidal water bodies, but to differ for GTSMs closer to coastlines. Orientations derived from teleseismic Love waves agree with those estimated by Grant and Langston (2010) using strains from a broadband seismic array near Anza, California. PBO GTSM recordings of teleseismic Love waves show differences of more than 20% among the shear-strain response coefficients of the four gauges. Love-wave derived orientations and relative shear-strain response coefficients can reduce uncertainties in shear strains derived from PBO GTSM data.

An Optimization-Based Approach to Determine System Requirements Under Multiple-Domain Specific Uncertainties

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

determining the optimal design requirements of a new system, which will operate along with other existing systems to provide a set of overarching...passenger airline transportation (Mane et al., 2007; Govindaraju et al., 2015). Uncertainty in Fleet Operations The uncertainty associated with the...demand can provide the basis for a commercial passenger airline problem. The operations of the commercial air travel industry differ from military

Frequency Weighted H2 Control Design for the Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calhoun, Philip C.; Hampton, R. David

2004-01-01

The acceleration environment on the International Space Station (ISS) exceeds the requirements of many microgravity experiments. The Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) has been built by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to attenuate the nominal acceleration environment and provide some isolation for microgravity science experiments. The g-LIMIT uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to isolate a platform, for mounting science payloads, from the nominal acceleration environment. The system utilizes payload-acceleration, relative-position, and relative-orientation measurements in a feedback controller to accomplish the vibration isolation task. The controller provides current commands to six magnetic actuators, producing the required experiment isolation from the ISS acceleration environment. The present work documents the development of a candidate control law to meet the acceleration attenuation requirements for the g-LIMIT experiment platform. The controller design is developed using linear optimal control techniques for frequency-weighted H2 norms. Comparison of performance and robustness to plant uncertainty for this control design approach is included in the discussion. System performance is demonstrated in the presence of plant modeling error.

Tomographic imaging of OH laser-induced fluorescence in laminar and turbulent jet flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Pareja, Jhon; Fuest, Frederik; Schütte, Manuel; Zhou, Yihui; Dreizler, Andreas; Böhm, Benjamin

2018-01-01

In this paper a new approach for 3D flame structure diagnostics using tomographic laser-induced fluorescence (Tomo-LIF) of the OH radical was evaluated. The approach combined volumetric illumination with a multi-camera detection system of eight views. Single-shot measurements were performed in a methane/air premixed laminar flame and in a non-premixed turbulent methane jet flame. 3D OH fluorescence distributions in the flames were reconstructed using the simultaneous multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique. The tomographic measurements were compared and validated against results of OH-PLIF in the laminar flame. The effects of the experimental setup of the detection system and the size of the volumetric illumination on the quality of the tomographic reconstructions were evaluated. Results revealed that the Tomo-LIF is suitable for volumetric reconstruction of flame structures with acceptable spatial resolution and uncertainty. It was found that the number of views and their angular orientation have a strong influence on the quality and accuracy of the tomographic reconstruction while the illumination volume thickness influences mainly the spatial resolution.

Study on the Dose Uncertainties in the Lung during Passive Proton Irradiation with a Proton Beam Range Compensator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Seung Hoon; Son, Jae Man; Yoon, Myonggeun; Park, Sung Yong; Shin, Dongho; Min, Byung Jun

2018-06-01

A moving phantom is manufactured for mimicking lung model to study the dose uncertainty from CT number-stopping power conversion and dose calculation in the soft tissue, light lung tissue and bone regions during passive proton irradiation with compensator smearing value. The phantom is scanned with a CT system, and a proton beam irradiation plan is carried out with the use of a treatment planning system (Eclipse). In the case of the moving phantom, a RPM system is used for respiratory gating. The uncertainties in the dose distribution between the measured data and the planned data are investigated by a gamma analysis with 3%-3 mm acceptance criteria. To investigate smearing effect, three smearing values (0.3 cm, 0.7 cm, 1.2 cm) are used to for fixed and moving phantom system. For both fixed and moving phantom, uncertainties in the light lung tissue are severe than those in soft tissue region in which the dose uncertainties are within clinically tolerable ranges. As the smearing value increases, the uncertainty in the proton dose distribution decreases.

Chasing Perfection: Should We Reduce Model Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Lindsay, K. T.; Thomas, R. Q.

2015-12-01

Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle show large multi-model spread in the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback parameters. Large differences among models are also seen in their simulation of global vegetation and soil C stocks and other aspects of the C cycle, prompting concern about model uncertainty and our ability to faithfully represent fundamental aspects of the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models. Benchmarking analyses that compare model simulations with common datasets have been proposed as a means to assess model fidelity with observations, and various model-data fusion techniques have been used to reduce model biases. While such efforts will reduce multi-model spread, they may not help reduce uncertainty (and increase confidence) in projections of the C cycle over the twenty-first century. Many ecological and biogeochemical processes represented in Earth system models are poorly understood at both the site scale and across large regions, where biotic and edaphic heterogeneity are important. Our experience with the Community Land Model (CLM) suggests that large uncertainty in the terrestrial C cycle and its feedback with climate change is an inherent property of biological systems. The challenge of representing life in Earth system models, with the rich diversity of lifeforms and complexity of biological systems, may necessitate a multitude of modeling approaches to capture the range of possible outcomes. Such models should encompass a range of plausible model structures. We distinguish between model parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Focusing on improved parameter estimates may, in fact, limit progress in assessing model structural uncertainty associated with realistically representing biological processes. Moreover, higher confidence may be achieved through better process representation, but this does not necessarily reduce uncertainty.

Uncertainty analysis of integrated gasification combined cycle systems based on Frame 7H versus 7F gas turbines.

PubMed

Zhu, Yunhua; Frey, H Christopher

2006-12-01

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology is a promising alternative for clean generation of power and coproduction of chemicals from coal and other feedstocks. Advanced concepts for IGCC systems that incorporate state-of-the-art gas turbine systems, however, are not commercially demonstrated. Therefore, there is uncertainty regarding the future commercial-scale performance, emissions, and cost of such technologies. The Frame 7F gas turbine represents current state-of-practice, whereas the Frame 7H is the most recently introduced advanced commercial gas turbine. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risks and potential payoffs of IGCC technology based on different gas turbine combined cycle designs. Models of entrained-flow gasifier-based IGCC systems with Frame 7F (IGCC-7F) and 7H gas turbine combined cycles (IGCC-7H) were developed in ASPEN Plus. An uncertainty analysis was conducted. Gasifier carbon conversion and project cost uncertainty are identified as the most important uncertain inputs with respect to system performance and cost. The uncertainties in the difference of the efficiencies and costs for the two systems are characterized. Despite uncertainty, the IGCC-7H system is robustly preferred to the IGCC-7F system. Advances in gas turbine design will improve the performance, emissions, and cost of IGCC systems. The implications of this study for decision-making regarding technology selection, research planning, and plant operation are discussed.

Effect of Uncertainty on Deterministic Runway Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Gautam; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2012-01-01

Active runway scheduling involves scheduling departures for takeoffs and arrivals for runway crossing subject to numerous constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of uncertainty on a deterministic runway scheduler. The evaluation is done against a first-come- first-serve scheme. In particular, the sequence from a deterministic scheduler is frozen and the times adjusted to satisfy all separation criteria; this approach is tested against FCFS. The comparison is done for both system performance (throughput and system delay) and predictability, and varying levels of congestion are considered. The modeling of uncertainty is done in two ways: as equal uncertainty in availability at the runway as for all aircraft, and as increasing uncertainty for later aircraft. Results indicate that the deterministic approach consistently performs better than first-come-first-serve in both system performance and predictability.

On the formulation of a minimal uncertainty model for robust control with structured uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Chang, B.-C.; Fischl, Robert

1991-01-01

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, representing the system transfer matrix in the form of what has come to be termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents a transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal closed loop system, and the delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The nominal closed loop system M(s) results from closing the feedback control system, K(s), around a nominal plant interconnection structure P(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unsaturated uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, but for real parameter variations delta is a diagonal matrix of real elements. Conceptually, the M-delta structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the currently available literature addresses computational methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty, where the term minimal refers to the dimension of the delta matrix. Since having a minimally dimensioned delta matrix would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta would be useful. Hence, a method of obtaining the interconnection system P(s) is required. A generalized procedure for obtaining a minimal P-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is presented. Using this model, the minimal M-delta model can then be easily obtained by closing the feedback loop. The procedure involves representing the system in a cascade-form state-space realization, determining the minimal uncertainty matrix, delta, and constructing the state-space representation of P(s). Three examples are presented to illustrate the procedure.

The Uncertainty Principle in the Presence of Quantum Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renes, Joseph M.; Berta, Mario; Christandl, Matthias; Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

2010-03-01

One consequence of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is that no observer can predict the outcomes of two incompatible measurements performed on a system to arbitrary precision. However, this implication is invalid if the the observer possesses a quantum memory, a distinct possibility in light of recent technological advances. Entanglement between the system and the memory is responsible for the breakdown of the uncertainty principle, as illustrated by the EPR paradox. In this work we present an improved uncertainty principle which takes this entanglement into account. By quantifying uncertainty using entropy, we show that the sum of the entropies associated with incompatible measurements must exceed a quantity which depends on the degree of incompatibility and the amount of entanglement between system and memory. Apart from its foundational significance, the uncertainty principle motivated the first proposals for quantum cryptography, though the possibility of an eavesdropper having a quantum memory rules out using the original version to argue that these proposals are secure. The uncertainty relation introduced here alleviates this problem and paves the way for its widespread use in quantum cryptography.

Prediction uncertainty and optimal experimental design for learning dynamical systems.

PubMed

Letham, Benjamin; Letham, Portia A; Rudin, Cynthia; Browne, Edward P

2016-06-01

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data, it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here, we present prediction deviation, a metric of uncertainty that determines the extent to which observed data have constrained the model's predictions. This is accomplished by solving an optimization problem that searches for a pair of models that each provides a good fit for the observed data, yet has maximally different predictions. We develop a method for estimating a priori the impact that additional experiments would have on the prediction deviation, allowing the experimenter to design a set of experiments that would most reduce uncertainty. We use prediction deviation to assess uncertainty in a model of interferon-alpha inhibition of viral infection, and to select a sequence of experiments that reduces this uncertainty. Finally, we prove a theoretical result which shows that prediction deviation provides bounds on the trajectories of the underlying true model. These results show that prediction deviation is a meaningful metric of uncertainty that can be used for optimal experimental design.

The Development and Assesment of Adaptation Pathways for Urban Pluvial Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, F.; Mijic, A.; Madani, K.

2017-12-01

Around the globe, urban areas are growing in both size and importance. However, due to the prevalence of impermeable surfaces within the urban fabric of cities these areas have a high risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the convergence of population growth and climate change the risk of pluvial flooding is growing. When designing solutions and adaptations to pluvial flood risk urban planners and engineers encounter a great deal of uncertainty due to model uncertainty, uncertainty within the data utilised, and uncertainty related to future climate and land use conditions. The interaction of these uncertainties leads to conditions of deep uncertainty. However, infrastructure systems must be designed and built in the face of this deep uncertainty. An Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) methodology was used to develop a strategy to adapt an urban drainage system in the North East of London under conditions of deep uncertainty. The ATP approach was used to assess the current drainage system and potential drainage system adaptations. These adaptations were assessed against potential changes in rainfall depth and peakedness-defined as the ratio of mean to peak rainfall. These solutions encompassed both traditional and blue-green solutions that the Local Authority are known to be considering. This resulted in a set of Adaptation Pathways. However, theses pathways do not convey any information regarding the relative merits and demerits of the potential adaptation options presented. To address this a cost-benefit metric was developed that would reflect the solutions' costs and benefits under uncertainty. The resulting metric combines elements of the Benefits of SuDS Tool (BeST) with real options analysis in order to reflect the potential value of ecosystem services delivered by blue-green solutions under uncertainty. Lastly, it is discussed how a local body can utilise the adaptation pathways; their relative costs and benefits; and a system of local data collection to help guide better decision making with respect to urban flood adaptation.

Exploring the influence of cultural orientations on assessment of communication behaviours during patient-practitioner interactions.

PubMed

Wilby, Kyle J; Govaerts, Marjan J B; Austin, Zubin; Dolmans, Diana H J M

2017-03-21

Research has shown that patients' and practitioners' cultural orientations affect communication behaviors and interpretations in cross-cultural patient-practitioner interactions. Little is known about the effect of cultural orientations on assessment of communication behaviors in cross-cultural educational settings. The purpose of this study is to explore cultural orientation as a potential source of assessor idiosyncrasy or between-assessor variability in assessment of communication skills. More specifically, we explored if and how (expert) assessors' valuing of communication behaviours aligned with their cultural orientations (power-distance, masculinity-femininity, uncertainty avoidance, and individualism-collectivism). Twenty-five pharmacist-assessors watched 3 videotaped scenarios (patient-pharmacist interactions) and ranked each on a 5-point global rating scale. Videotaped scenarios demonstrated combinations of well-portrayed and borderline examples of instrumental and affective communication behaviours. We used stimulated recall and verbal protocol analysis to investigate assessors' interpretations and evaluations of communication behaviours. Uttered assessments of communication behaviours were coded as instrumental (task-oriented) or affective (socioemotional) and either positive or negative. Cultural orientations were measured using the Individual Cultural Values Scale. Correlations between cultural orientations and global scores, and frequencies of positive, negative, and total utterances of instrumental and affective behaviours were determined. Correlations were found to be scenario specific. In videos with poor or good performance, no differences were found across cultural orientations. When borderline performance was demonstrated, high power-distance and masculinity were significantly associated with higher global ratings (r = .445, and .537 respectively, p < 0.05) as well as with fewer negative utterances regarding instrumental (task focused) behaviours (r = -.533 and - .529, respectively). Higher masculinity scores were furthermore associated with positive utterances of affective (socioemotional) behaviours (r = .441). Our findings thus confirm cultural orientation as a source of assessor idiosyncrasy and meaningful variations in interpretation of communication behaviours. Interestingly, expert assessors generally agreed on scenarios of good or poor performances but borderline performance was influenced by cultural orientation. Contrary to current practices of assessor and assessment instrument standardization, findings support the use of multiple assessors for patient-practitioner interactions and development of qualitative assessment tools to capture these varying, yet valid, interpretations of performance.

Potential for using indigenous pigs in subsistence-oriented and market-oriented small-scale farming systems of Southern Africa.

PubMed

Madzimure, James; Chimonyo, Michael; Zander, Kerstin K; Dzama, Kennedy

2013-01-01

Indigenous pigs in South Africa are a source of food and economic autonomy for people in rural small-scale farming systems. The objective of the study was to assess the potential of indigenous pigs for improving communal farmer's livelihoods and to inform policy-makers about the conservation of indigenous pigs. Data were collected from 186 small-scale subsistence-oriented households and 102 small-scale market-oriented households using interviews and direct observations. Ninety-three percent of subsistence-oriented and 82 % of market-oriented households kept indigenous pigs such as Windsnyer, Kolbroek and non-descript crosses with exotic pigs mainly for selling, consumption and investment. Farmers in both production systems named diseases and parasites, followed by feed shortages, inbreeding and abortions as major constraints for pig production. Diseases and parasites were more likely to be a constraint to pig production in subsistence-oriented systems, for households where the head was not staying at home and for older farmers. Market-oriented farmers ranked productive traits such as fast growth rate, good meat quality and decent litter size as most important selection criteria for pig breeding stock, while subsistence-oriented farmers ranked good meat quality first, followed by decent growth rate and by low feed costs. We conclude that there is high potential for using indigenous pigs in subsistence-oriented production systems and for crossbreeding of indigenous pigs with imported breeds in market-oriented systems.

Object-oriented analysis and design of an ECG storage and retrieval system integrated with an HIS.

PubMed

Wang, C; Ohe, K; Sakurai, T; Nagase, T; Kaihara, S

1996-03-01

For a hospital information system, object-oriented methodology plays an increasingly important role, especially for the management of digitized data, e.g., the electrocardiogram, electroencephalogram, electromyogram, spirogram, X-ray, CT and histopathological images, which are not yet computerized in most hospitals. As a first step in an object-oriented approach to hospital information management and storing medical data in an object-oriented database, we connected electrocardiographs to a hospital network and established the integration of ECG storage and retrieval systems with a hospital information system. In this paper, the object-oriented analysis and design of the ECG storage and retrieval systems is reported.

Robust Control Design for Uncertain Nonlinear Dynamic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Andrews, Lindsey; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

Robustness to parametric uncertainty is fundamental to successful control system design and as such it has been at the core of many design methods developed over the decades. Despite its prominence, most of the work on robust control design has focused on linear models and uncertainties that are non-probabilistic in nature. Recently, researchers have acknowledged this disparity and have been developing theory to address a broader class of uncertainties. This paper presents an experimental application of robust control design for a hybrid class of probabilistic and non-probabilistic parametric uncertainties. The experimental apparatus is based upon the classic inverted pendulum on a cart. The physical uncertainty is realized by a known additional lumped mass at an unknown location on the pendulum. This unknown location has the effect of substantially altering the nominal frequency and controllability of the nonlinear system, and in the limit has the capability to make the system neutrally stable and uncontrollable. Another uncertainty to be considered is a direct current motor parameter. The control design objective is to design a controller that satisfies stability, tracking error, control power, and transient behavior requirements for the largest range of parametric uncertainties. This paper presents an overview of the theory behind the robust control design methodology and the experimental results.

Uncertainty quantification of surface-water/groundwater exchange estimates in large wetland systems using Python

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Metz, P. A.

2014-12-01

Most watershed studies include observation-based water budget analyses to develop first-order estimates of significant flow terms. Surface-water/groundwater (SWGW) exchange is typically assumed to be equal to the residual of the sum of inflows and outflows in a watershed. These estimates of SWGW exchange, however, are highly uncertain as a result of the propagation of uncertainty inherent in the calculation or processing of the other terms of the water budget, such as stage-area-volume relations, and uncertainties associated with land-cover based evapotranspiration (ET) rate estimates. Furthermore, the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchanges can be magnified in large wetland systems that transition from dry to wet during wet periods. Although it is well understood that observation-based estimates of SWGW exchange are uncertain it is uncommon for the uncertainty of these estimates to be directly quantified. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to (1) quantify the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchange in large wetland systems and (2) evaluate how different approaches for partitioning land-cover data in a watershed may affect the water-budget uncertainty. We have used Python with the Numpy, Scipy.stats, and pyDOE packages to implement an unconstrained Monte Carlo approach with Latin Hypercube sampling to quantify the uncertainty of monthly estimates of SWGW exchange in the Floral City watershed of the Tsala Apopka wetland system in west-central Florida, USA. Possible sources of uncertainty in the water budget analysis include rainfall, ET, canal discharge, and land/bathymetric surface elevations. Each of these input variables was assigned a probability distribution based on observation error or spanning the range of probable values. The Monte Carlo integration process exposes the uncertainties in land-cover based ET rate estimates as the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in SWGW exchange estimates. We will discuss the uncertainty of SWGW exchange estimates using an ET model that partitions the watershed into open water and wetland land-cover types. We will also discuss the uncertainty of SWGW exchange estimates calculated using ET models partitioned into additional land-cover types.

An experimental system for the study of active vibration control - Development and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batta, George R.; Chen, Anning

A modular rotational vibration system designed to facilitate the study of active control of vibrating systems is discussed. The model error associated with four common types of identification problems has been studied. The general multiplicative uncertainty shape for a vibration system is small in low frequencies, large at high frequencies. The frequency-domain error function has sharp peaks near the frequency of each mode. The inability to identify a high-frequency mode causes an increase of uncertainties at all frequencies. Missing a low-frequency mode causes the uncertainties to be much larger at all frequencies than missing a high-frequency mode. Hysteresis causes a small increase of uncertainty at low frequencies, but its overall effect is relatively small.

Human computer interactions in next-generation of aircraft smart navigation management systems: task analysis and architecture under an agent-oriented methodological approach.

PubMed

Canino-Rodríguez, José M; García-Herrero, Jesús; Besada-Portas, Juan; Ravelo-García, Antonio G; Travieso-González, Carlos; Alonso-Hernández, Jesús B

2015-03-04

The limited efficiency of current air traffic systems will require a next-generation of Smart Air Traffic System (SATS) that relies on current technological advances. This challenge means a transition toward a new navigation and air-traffic procedures paradigm, where pilots and air traffic controllers perform and coordinate their activities according to new roles and technological supports. The design of new Human-Computer Interactions (HCI) for performing these activities is a key element of SATS. However efforts for developing such tools need to be inspired on a parallel characterization of hypothetical air traffic scenarios compatible with current ones. This paper is focused on airborne HCI into SATS where cockpit inputs came from aircraft navigation systems, surrounding traffic situation, controllers' indications, etc. So the HCI is intended to enhance situation awareness and decision-making through pilot cockpit. This work approach considers SATS as a system distributed on a large-scale with uncertainty in a dynamic environment. Therefore, a multi-agent systems based approach is well suited for modeling such an environment. We demonstrate that current methodologies for designing multi-agent systems are a useful tool to characterize HCI. We specifically illustrate how the selected methodological approach provides enough guidelines to obtain a cockpit HCI design that complies with future SATS specifications.

Human Computer Interactions in Next-Generation of Aircraft Smart Navigation Management Systems: Task Analysis and Architecture under an Agent-Oriented Methodological Approach

PubMed Central

Canino-Rodríguez, José M.; García-Herrero, Jesús; Besada-Portas, Juan; Ravelo-García, Antonio G.; Travieso-González, Carlos; Alonso-Hernández, Jesús B.

2015-01-01

The limited efficiency of current air traffic systems will require a next-generation of Smart Air Traffic System (SATS) that relies on current technological advances. This challenge means a transition toward a new navigation and air-traffic procedures paradigm, where pilots and air traffic controllers perform and coordinate their activities according to new roles and technological supports. The design of new Human-Computer Interactions (HCI) for performing these activities is a key element of SATS. However efforts for developing such tools need to be inspired on a parallel characterization of hypothetical air traffic scenarios compatible with current ones. This paper is focused on airborne HCI into SATS where cockpit inputs came from aircraft navigation systems, surrounding traffic situation, controllers’ indications, etc. So the HCI is intended to enhance situation awareness and decision-making through pilot cockpit. This work approach considers SATS as a system distributed on a large-scale with uncertainty in a dynamic environment. Therefore, a multi-agent systems based approach is well suited for modeling such an environment. We demonstrate that current methodologies for designing multi-agent systems are a useful tool to characterize HCI. We specifically illustrate how the selected methodological approach provides enough guidelines to obtain a cockpit HCI design that complies with future SATS specifications. PMID:25746092

Entropic uncertainty for spin-1/2 XXX chains in the presence of inhomogeneous magnetic fields and its steering via weak measurement reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2017-09-01

The uncertainty principle configures a low bound to the measuring precision for a pair of non-commuting observables, and hence is considerably nontrivial to quantum precision measurement in the field of quantum information theory. In this letter, we consider the entropic uncertainty relation (EUR) in the context of quantum memory in a two-qubit isotropic Heisenberg spin chain. Specifically, we explore the dynamics of EUR in a practical scenario, where two associated nodes of a one-dimensional XXX-spin chain, under an inhomogeneous magnetic field, are connected to a thermal entanglement. We show that the temperature and magnetic field effect can lead to the inflation of the measuring uncertainty, stemming from the reduction of systematic quantum correlation. Notably, we reveal that, firstly, the uncertainty is not fully dependent on the observed quantum correlation of the system; secondly, the dynamical behaviors of the measuring uncertainty are relatively distinct with respect to ferromagnetism and antiferromagnetism chains. Meanwhile, we deduce that the measuring uncertainty is dramatically correlated with the mixedness of the system, implying that smaller mixedness tends to reduce the uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an effective strategy to control the uncertainty of interest by means of quantum weak measurement reversal. Therefore, our work may shed light on the dynamics of the measuring uncertainty in the Heisenberg spin chain, and thus be important to quantum precision measurement in various solid-state systems.

Deformation of periodic nanovoid structures in Mg single crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shuozhi; Su, Yanqing; Zare Chavoshi, Saeed

2018-01-01

Large scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in Mg single crystal containing periodic cylindrical voids subject to uniaxial tension along the z direction are carried out. Models with different initial void sizes and crystallographic orientations are explored using two interatomic potentials. It is found that (i) a larger initial void always leads to a lower yield stress, in agreement with an analytic prediction; (ii) in the model with x[\\bar{1}100]-y[0001]-z[11\\bar{2}0] orientations, the two potentials predict different types of tension twins and phase transformation; (iii) in the model with x[0001]-y[11\\bar{2}0]-z[\\bar{1}100] orientations, the two potentials identically predict the nucleation of edge dislocations on the prismatic plane, which then glide away from the void, resulting in extrusions at the void surface; in the case of the smallest initial void, these surface extrusions pinch the void into two voids. Besides bringing new physical understanding of the nanovoid structures, our work highlights the variability and uncertainty in MD simulations arising from the interatomic potential, an issue relatively lightly addressed in the literature to date.

Rapid assessment of mid-infrared refractive index anisotropy using a prism coupler: chemical vapor deposited ZnS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiao, Hong; Lipschultz, Kristen A.; Anheier, Norman C.

2012-04-01

A state-of-the-art mid-infrared prism coupler was used to study the refractive index properties of forward-looking-infrared (FLIR) grade zinc sulfide samples prepared with unique planar grain orientations and locations with respect to the CVD growth axis. This study was motivated by prior photoluminescence and x-ray diffraction measurements that suggested refractive index may vary according to grain orientation. Measurements were conducted to provide optical dispersion and thermal index (dn/dT) data at discrete laser wavelengths between 0.633 and 10.591 {mu}m at two temperature set points (30 C and 90 C). Refractive index measurements between samples exhibited an average standard deviation comparable to themore » uncertainty of the prism coupler measurement (0.0004 refractive index units), suggesting that the variation in refractive index as a function of planar grain orientation and CVD deposition time is negligible, and should have no impact on subsequent optical designs. Measured dispersion data at mid-infrared wavelengths was found to agree well with prior published measurements.« less

Iterative refinement of implicit boundary models for improved geological feature reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Ryan; Boisvert, Jeff B.

2017-12-01

Geological domains contain non-stationary features that cannot be described by a single direction of continuity. Non-stationary estimation frameworks generate more realistic curvilinear interpretations of subsurface geometries. A radial basis function (RBF) based implicit modeling framework using domain decomposition is developed that permits introduction of locally varying orientations and magnitudes of anisotropy for boundary models to better account for the local variability of complex geological deposits. The interpolation framework is paired with a method to automatically infer the locally predominant orientations, which results in a rapid and robust iterative non-stationary boundary modeling technique that can refine locally anisotropic geological shapes automatically from the sample data. The method also permits quantification of the volumetric uncertainty associated with the boundary modeling. The methodology is demonstrated on a porphyry dataset and shows improved local geological features.

Object-Oriented MDAO Tool with Aeroservoelastic Model Tuning Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-gi; Li, Wesley; Lung, Shun-fat

2008-01-01

An object-oriented multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization (MDAO) tool has been developed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to automate the design and analysis process and leverage existing commercial as well as in-house codes to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the preliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic aircraft. Once the structural analysis discipline is finalized and integrated completely into the MDAO process, other disciplines such as aerodynamics and flight controls will be integrated as well. Simple and efficient model tuning capabilities based on optimization problem are successfully integrated with the MDAO tool. More synchronized all phases of experimental testing (ground and flight), analytical model updating, high-fidelity simulations for model validation, and integrated design may result in reduction of uncertainties in the aeroservoelastic model and increase the flight safety.

Robust fractional order sliding mode control of doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind turbines.

PubMed

Ebrahimkhani, Sadegh

2016-07-01

Wind power plants have nonlinear dynamics and contain many uncertainties such as unknown nonlinear disturbances and parameter uncertainties. Thus, it is a difficult task to design a robust reliable controller for this system. This paper proposes a novel robust fractional-order sliding mode (FOSM) controller for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control of doubly fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind energy conversion system. In order to enhance the robustness of the control system, uncertainties and disturbances are estimated using a fractional order uncertainty estimator. In the proposed method a continuous control strategy is developed to achieve the chattering free fractional order sliding-mode control, and also no knowledge of the uncertainties and disturbances or their bound is assumed. The boundedness and convergence properties of the closed-loop signals are proven using Lyapunov׳s stability theory. Simulation results in the presence of various uncertainties were carried out to evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control scheme. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing an Online Framework for Publication of Uncertainty Information in Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etienne, E.; Piasecki, M.

2012-12-01

Inaccuracies in data collection and parameters estimation, and imperfection of models structures imply uncertain predictions of the hydrological models. Finding a way to communicate the uncertainty information in a model output is important in decision-making. This work aims to publish uncertainty information (computed by project partner at Penn State) associated with hydrological predictions on catchments. To this end we have developed a DB schema (derived from the CUAHSI ODM design) which is focused on storing uncertainty information and its associated metadata. The technologies used to build the system are: OGC's Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for publication, the uncertML markup language (also developed by the OGC) to describe uncertainty information, and use of the Interoperability and Automated Mapping (INTAMAP) Web Processing Service (WPS) that handles part of the statistics computations. We develop a service to provide users with the capability to exploit all the functionality of the system (based on DRUPAL). Users will be able to request and visualize uncertainty data, and also publish their data in the system.

"The more you know, the more you realise it is really challenging to do": Tensions and uncertainties in person-centred support for people with long-term conditions.

PubMed

Entwistle, Vikki A; Cribb, Alan; Watt, Ian S; Skea, Zoë C; Owens, John; Morgan, Heather M; Christmas, Simon

2018-03-30

To identify and examine tensions and uncertainties in person-centred approaches to self-management support - approaches that take patients seriously as moral agents and orient support to enable them to live (and die) well on their own terms. Interviews with 26 UK clinicians about working with people with diabetes or Parkinson's disease, conducted within a broader interdisciplinary project on self-management support. The analysis reported here was informed by philosophical reasoning and discussions with stakeholders. Person-centred approaches require clinicians to balance tensions between the many things that can matter in life, and their own and each patient's perspectives on these. Clinicians must ensure that their supportive efforts do not inadvertently disempower people. When attending to someone's particular circumstances and perspectives, they sometimes face intractable uncertainties, including about what is most important to the person and what, realistically, the person can or could do and achieve. The kinds of professional judgement that person-centred working necessitates are not always acknowledged and supported. Practical and ethical tensions are inherent in person-centred support and need to be better understood and addressed. Professional development and service improvement initiatives should recognise these tensions and uncertainties and support clinicians to navigate them well. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

pyNSMC: A Python Module for Null-Space Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J.; Brakefield, L. K.

2015-12-01

The null-space monte carlo technique is a non-linear uncertainty analyses technique that is well-suited to high-dimensional inverse problems. While the technique is powerful, the existing workflow for completing null-space monte carlo is cumbersome, requiring the use of multiple commandline utilities, several sets of intermediate files and even a text editor. pyNSMC is an open-source python module that automates the workflow of null-space monte carlo uncertainty analyses. The module is fully compatible with the PEST and PEST++ software suites and leverages existing functionality of pyEMU, a python framework for linear-based uncertainty analyses. pyNSMC greatly simplifies the existing workflow for null-space monte carlo by taking advantage of object oriented design facilities in python. The core of pyNSMC is the ensemble class, which draws and stores realized random vectors and also provides functionality for exporting and visualizing results. By relieving users of the tedium associated with file handling and command line utility execution, pyNSMC instead focuses the user on the important steps and assumptions of null-space monte carlo analysis. Furthermore, pyNSMC facilitates learning through flow charts and results visualization, which are available at many points in the algorithm. The ease-of-use of the pyNSMC workflow is compared to the existing workflow for null-space monte carlo for a synthetic groundwater model with hundreds of estimable parameters.

Quantifying Risks and Uncertainties Associated with Induced Seismicity due to CO2 Injection into Geologic Formations with Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Nguyen, B. N.; Bacon, D. H.; White, M. D.; Murray, C. J.

2016-12-01

A multiphase flow and reactive transport simulator named STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and coupled to the ABAQUS® finite element package for geomechanical analysis enabling comprehensive thermo-hydro-geochemical-mechanical (THMC) analyses. The coupled THMC simulator has been applied to analyze faulted CO2 reservoir responses (e.g., stress and strain distributions, pressure buildup, slip tendency factor, pressure margin to fracture) with various complexities in fault and reservoir structures and mineralogy. Depending on the geological and reaction network settings, long-term injection of CO2 can have a significant effect on the elastic stiffness and permeability of formation rocks. In parallel, an uncertainty quantification framework (UQ-CO2), which consists of entropy-based prior uncertainty representation, efficient sampling, geostatistical reservoir modeling, and effective response surface analysis, has been developed for quantifying risks and uncertainties associated with CO2 sequestration. It has been demonstrated for evaluating risks in CO2 leakage through natural pathways and wellbores, and for developing predictive reduced order models. Recently, a parallel STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and the updated STOMP/ABAQUS model has been proven to have a great scalability, which makes it possible to integrate the model with the UQ framework to effectively and efficiently explore multidimensional parameter space (e.g., permeability, elastic modulus, crack orientation, fault friction coefficient) for a more systematic analysis of induced seismicity risks.

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjöstrand, Henrik; Conroy, Sean; Helgesson, Petter; Hernandez, Solis Augusto; Koning, Arjan; Pomp, Stephan; Rochman, Dimitri

2017-09-01

Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

Hydromechanical effects of continental glaciation on groundwater systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neuzil, C.E.

2012-01-01

Hydromechanical effects of continental ice sheets may involve considerably more than the widely recognized direct compression of overridden terrains by ice load. Lithospheric flexure, which lags ice advance and retreat, appears capable of causing comparable or greater stress changes. Together, direct and flexural loading may increase fluid pressures by tens of MPa in geologic units unable to drain. If so, fluid pressures in low-permeability formations subject to glaciation may have increased and decreased repeatedly during cycles of Pleistocene glaciation and can again in the future. Being asynchronous and normally oriented, direct and flexural loading presumably cause normal and shear stresses to evolve in a complex fashion through much or all of a glacial cycle. Simulations of fractured rock predict permeability might vary by two to three orders of magnitude under similar stress changes as fractures at different orientations are subjected to changing normal and shear stresses and some become critically stressed. Uncertainties surrounding these processes and their interactions, and the confounding influences of surface hydrologic changes, make it challenging to delineate their effects on groundwater flow and pressure regimes with any specificity. To date, evidence for hydromechanical changes caused by the last glaciation is sparse and inconclusive, comprising a few pressure anomalies attributed to the removal of direct ice load. This may change as more data are gathered, and understanding of relevant processes is refined.

Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries.

PubMed

Sutton, Abigail M; Rudd, Murray A

2016-10-01

The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on 'expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent 'shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and downscaling techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wootten, Adrienne; Terando, Adam; Reich, Brian J.; Boyles, Ryan; Semazzi, Fred

2017-01-01

In recent years climate model experiments have been increasingly oriented towards providing information that can support local and regional adaptation to the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change. This shift has magnified the importance of downscaling as a means to translate coarse-scale global climate model (GCM) output to a finer scale that more closely matches the scale of interest. Applying this technique, however, introduces a new source of uncertainty into any resulting climate model ensemble. Here we present a method, based on a previously established variance decomposition method, to partition and quantify the uncertainty in climate model ensembles that is attributable to downscaling. We apply the method to the Southeast U.S. using five downscaled datasets that represent both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques. The combined ensemble is highly fragmented, in that only a small portion of the complete set of downscaled GCMs and emission scenarios are typically available. The results indicate that the uncertainty attributable to downscaling approaches ~20% for large areas of the Southeast U.S. for precipitation and ~30% for extreme heat days (> 35°C) in the Appalachian Mountains. However, attributable quantities are significantly lower for time periods when the full ensemble is considered but only a sub-sample of all models are available, suggesting that overconfidence could be a serious problem in studies that employ a single set of downscaled GCMs. We conclude with recommendations to advance the design of climate model experiments so that the uncertainty that accrues when downscaling is employed is more fully and systematically considered.

Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hui; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.; ...

2016-04-13

Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annualmore » energy production prediction. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30% of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. As a result, large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation.« less

Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hui; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.

Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annualmore » energy production prediction. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30% of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. As a result, large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation.« less

Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Abigail M.; Rudd, Murray A.

2016-10-01

The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on `expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent `shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

2018-04-01

Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone, that have an emissions-induced uncertainty representing more than 40% of the uncertainty in the Earth system’s response.

Methods for determining and processing 3D errors and uncertainties for AFM data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klapetek, P.; Nečas, D.; Campbellová, A.; Yacoot, A.; Koenders, L.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the processing of three-dimensional (3D) scanning probe microscopy (SPM) data. It is shown that 3D volumetric calibration error and uncertainty data can be acquired for both metrological atomic force microscope systems and commercial SPMs. These data can be used within nearly all the standard SPM data processing algorithms to determine local values of uncertainty of the scanning system. If the error function of the scanning system is determined for the whole measurement volume of an SPM, it can be converted to yield local dimensional uncertainty values that can in turn be used for evaluation of uncertainties related to the acquired data and for further data processing applications (e.g. area, ACF, roughness) within direct or statistical measurements. These have been implemented in the software package Gwyddion.

Evaluation of thermal cameras in quality systems according to ISO 9000 or EN 45000 standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chrzanowski, Krzysztof

2001-03-01

According to the international standards ISO 9001-9004 and EN 45001-45003 the industrial plants and the accreditation laboratories that implemented the quality systems according to these standards are required to evaluate an uncertainty of measurements. Manufacturers of thermal cameras do not offer any data that could enable estimation of measurement uncertainty of these imagers. Difficulties in determining the measurement uncertainty is an important limitation of thermal cameras for applications in the industrial plants and the cooperating accreditation laboratories that have implemented these quality systems. A set of parameters for characterization of commercial thermal cameras, a measuring set, some results of testing of these cameras, a mathematical model of uncertainty, and a software that enables quick calculation of uncertainty of temperature measurements with thermal cameras are presented in this paper.

Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes.

PubMed

Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V; Gani, Rafiqul

2013-11-01

This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic model-based process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty, while for sensitivity analysis, global methods including the standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and Morris screening are used to identify the most significant parameters. The potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) crystallization process is used as a case study, both in open-loop and closed-loop operation. In the uncertainty analysis, the impact on the predicted output of uncertain parameters related to the nucleation and the crystal growth model has been investigated for both a one- and two-dimensional crystal size distribution (CSD). The open-loop results show that the input uncertainties lead to significant uncertainties on the CSD, with appearance of a secondary peak due to secondary nucleation for both cases. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important parameters affecting the CSDs are nucleation order and growth order constants. In the proposed PAT system design (closed-loop), the target CSD variability was successfully reduced compared to the open-loop case, also when considering uncertainty in nucleation and crystal growth model parameters. The latter forms a strong indication of the robustness of the proposed PAT system design in achieving the target CSD and encourages its transfer to full-scale implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unveiling the decoherence effect of noise on the entropic uncertainty relation and its control by partially collapsed operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min-Nan; Sun, Wen-Yang; Huang, Ai-Jun; Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

In this work, we investigate the dynamics of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations under open systems, and how to steer the uncertainty under different types of decoherence. Specifically, we develop the dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty of interest under two typical categories of noise; bit flipping and depolarizing channels. It has been shown that the measurement uncertainty firstly increases and then decreases with the growth of the decoherence strength in bit flipping channels. In contrast, the uncertainty monotonically increases with the increase of the decoherence strength in depolarizing channels. Notably, and to a large degree, it is shown that the uncertainty depends on both the systematic quantum correlation and the minimal conditional entropy of the observed subsystem. Moreover, we present a possible physical interpretation for these distinctive behaviors of the uncertainty within such scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a simple and effective strategy to reduce the entropic uncertainty by means of a partially collapsed operation—quantum weak measurement. Therefore, our investigations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the measurment uncertainty under decoherence, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement in open systems.

An overview of methods to identify and manage uncertainty for modelling problems in the water-environment-agriculture cross-sector

DOE PAGES

Jakeman, Anthony J.; Jakeman, John Davis

2018-03-14

Uncertainty pervades the representation of systems in the water–environment–agriculture cross-sector. Successful methods to address uncertainties have largely focused on standard mathematical formulations of biophysical processes in a single sector, such as partial or ordinary differential equations. More attention to integrated models of such systems is warranted. Model components representing the different sectors of an integrated model can have less standard, and different, formulations to one another, as well as different levels of epistemic knowledge and data informativeness. Thus, uncertainty is not only pervasive but also crosses boundaries and propagates between system components. Uncertainty assessment (UA) cries out for more eclecticmore » treatment in these circumstances, some of it being more qualitative and empirical. Here in this paper, we discuss the various sources of uncertainty in such a cross-sectoral setting and ways to assess and manage them. We have outlined a fast-growing set of methodologies, particularly in the computational mathematics literature on uncertainty quantification (UQ), that seem highly pertinent for uncertainty assessment. There appears to be considerable scope for advancing UA by integrating relevant UQ techniques into cross-sectoral problem applications. Of course this will entail considerable collaboration between domain specialists who often take first ownership of the problem and computational methods experts.« less

An overview of methods to identify and manage uncertainty for modelling problems in the water-environment-agriculture cross-sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakeman, Anthony J.; Jakeman, John Davis

Uncertainty pervades the representation of systems in the water–environment–agriculture cross-sector. Successful methods to address uncertainties have largely focused on standard mathematical formulations of biophysical processes in a single sector, such as partial or ordinary differential equations. More attention to integrated models of such systems is warranted. Model components representing the different sectors of an integrated model can have less standard, and different, formulations to one another, as well as different levels of epistemic knowledge and data informativeness. Thus, uncertainty is not only pervasive but also crosses boundaries and propagates between system components. Uncertainty assessment (UA) cries out for more eclecticmore » treatment in these circumstances, some of it being more qualitative and empirical. Here in this paper, we discuss the various sources of uncertainty in such a cross-sectoral setting and ways to assess and manage them. We have outlined a fast-growing set of methodologies, particularly in the computational mathematics literature on uncertainty quantification (UQ), that seem highly pertinent for uncertainty assessment. There appears to be considerable scope for advancing UA by integrating relevant UQ techniques into cross-sectoral problem applications. Of course this will entail considerable collaboration between domain specialists who often take first ownership of the problem and computational methods experts.« less

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Mueller, Don

2011-01-01

The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification ismore » useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.« less

The Difference between Uncertainty and Information, and Why This Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.

2016-12-01

Earth science investigation and arbitration (for decision making) is very often organized around a concept of uncertainty. It seems relatively straightforward that the purpose of our science is to reduce uncertainty about how environmental systems will react and evolve under different conditions. I propose here that approaching a science of complex systems as a process of quantifying and reducing uncertainty is a mistake, and specifically a mistake that is rooted in certain rather hisoric logical errors. Instead I propose that we should be asking questions about information. I argue here that an information-based perspective facilitates almost trivial answers to environmental science questions that are either difficult or theoretically impossible to answer when posed as questions about uncertainty. In particular, I propose that an information-centric perspective leads to: Coherent and non-subjective hypothesis tests for complex system models. Process-level diagnostics for complex systems models. Methods for building complex systems models that allow for inductive inference without the need for a priori specification of likelihood functions or ad hoc error metrics. Asymptotically correct quantification of epistemic uncertainty. To put this in slightly more basic terms, I propose that an information-theoretic philosophy of science has the potential to resolve certain important aspects of the Demarcation Problem and the Duhem-Quine Problem, and that Hydrology and other Earth Systems Sciences can immediately capitalize on this to address some of our most difficult and persistent problems.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis E.

2013-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Adapting a strategic management model to hospital operating strategies. A model development and justification.

PubMed

Swinehart, K; Zimmerer, T W; Oswald, S

1995-01-01

Industrial organizations have employed the process of strategic management in their attempts to cope effectively with global competitive pressures, while attempting to build and maintain competitive advantage. With health-care organizations presently trying to cope with an increasingly turbulent environment created by the uncertainty as to pending legislation and anticipated reform, the need for such organizational strategic planning is apparent. Presents and discusses a methodology for adapting a business-oriented model of strategic planning to health care.

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.

2010-09-01

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and windmore » forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.« less

Knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty: case from automotive battery supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, I. A.; Sugiarto, D.; Surjasa, D.; Witonohadi, A.

2018-01-01

Automotive battery supply chain include battery manufacturer, sulphuric acid suppliers, polypropylene suppliers, lead suppliers, transportation service providers, warehouses, retailers and even customers. Due to the increasingly dynamic condition of the environment, supply chain actors were required to improve their ability to overcome various uncertainty issues in the environment. This paper aims to describe the process of designing a knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty. The design methodology began with the identification of the knowledge needed to solve the problems associated with uncertainty and analysis of system requirements. The design of the knowledge management system was described in the form of a data flow diagram. The results of the study indicated that key knowledge area that needs to be managed were the knowledge to maintain the stability of process in sulphuric acid process and knowledge to overcome the wastes in battery manufacturing process. The system was expected to be a media acquisition, dissemination and storage of knowledge associated with the uncertainty in the battery supply chain and increase the supply chain performance.

Object-oriented knowledge representation for expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Stephen L.

1991-01-01

Object oriented techniques have generated considerable interest in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community in recent years. This paper discusses an approach for representing expert system knowledge using classes, objects, and message passing. The implementation is in version 4.3 of NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), an expert system tool that does not provide direct support for object oriented design. The method uses programmer imposed conventions and keywords to structure facts, and rules to provide object oriented capabilities.

Improving Polar Motion Predictions Using AAM χ1 and χ2 Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratcliff, J. T.; Gross, R. S.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's changing orientation in space is a majorsource of error in tracking and navigating interplanetary spacecraft. Because the Earth'sorientation changes rapidly and unpredictably, measurements must be acquired frequentlyand processed rapidly in order to meet the near-real-time Earth orientation requirements ofthe interplanetary spacecraft navigation teams. The Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF)is used to combine GPS polar motion and LOD measurements, Very Long Baseline Interferometry(VLBI) polar motion and UT measurements, along with other publicly available Earth orientationmeasurements including proxy measurements such as atmospheric angular momentum (AAM),in order to generate and deliver the required polar motion and UT1 Earth orientation parametersto the spacecraft navigation teams. Short-term predictions of the EOPs are produced in order toprovide the navigation teams with an uninterrupted series of Earth orientation parameters. WhileAAM 𝜒3 forecasts are used as a proxy LOD forecast to improve UT1 predictions, Polar Motionpredictions had not been similarly treated. In order to evaluate the effectiveness off AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2forecasts on improving Polar Motion predictions we reprocessed one year (Jan.-Dec. 2015) of EOP measurementsto include the 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 components of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)AAM daily 5-day forecasts. Inclusion of AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 forecasts into EOP predictions was foundto improve the accuracy of the Polar Motion 5-day predictions by 33% in the X-component and 34% in the Y-component.

Exact results for the finite time thermodynamic uncertainty relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, Sreekanth K.; Krishnamurthy, Supriya

2018-03-01

We obtain exact results for the recently discovered finite-time thermodynamic uncertainty relation, for the dissipated work W d , in a stochastically driven system with non-Gaussian work statistics, both in the steady state and transient regimes, by obtaining exact expressions for any moment of W d at arbitrary times. The uncertainty function (the Fano factor of W d ) is bounded from below by 2k_BT as expected, for all times τ, in both steady state and transient regimes. The lower bound is reached at τ=0 as well as when certain system parameters vanish (corresponding to an equilibrium state). Surprisingly, we find that the uncertainty function also reaches a constant value at large τ for all the cases we have looked at. For a system starting and remaining in steady state, the uncertainty function increases monotonically, as a function of τ as well as other system parameters, implying that the large τ value is also an upper bound. For the same system in the transient regime, however, we find that the uncertainty function can have a local minimum at an accessible time τm , for a range of parameter values. The large τ value for the uncertainty function is hence not a bound in this case. The non-monotonicity suggests, rather counter-intuitively, that there might be an optimal time for the working of microscopic machines, as well as an optimal configuration in the phase space of parameter values. Our solutions show that the ratios of higher moments of the dissipated work are also bounded from below by 2k_BT . For another model, also solvable by our methods, which never reaches a steady state, the uncertainty function, is in some cases, bounded from below by a value less than 2k_BT .

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zozor, Steeve; Portesi, Mariela; Sanchez-Moreno, Pablo

The position-momentum uncertainty-like inequality based on moments of arbitrary order for d-dimensional quantum systems, which is a generalization of the celebrated Heisenberg formulation of the uncertainty principle, is improved here by use of the Renyi-entropy-based uncertainty relation. The accuracy of the resulting lower bound is physico-computationally analyzed for the two main prototypes in d-dimensional physics: the hydrogenic and oscillator-like systems.

A probabilistic approach for mine burial prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbu, Costin; Valent, Philip; Richardson, Michael; Abelev, Andrei; Plant, Nathaniel

2004-09-01

Predicting the degree of burial of mines in soft sediments is one of the main concerns of Naval Mine CounterMeasures (MCM) operations. This is a difficult problem to solve due to uncertainties and variability of the sediment parameters (i.e., density and shear strength) and of the mine state at contact with the seafloor (i.e., vertical and horizontal velocity, angular rotation rate, and pitch angle at the mudline). A stochastic approach is proposed in this paper to better incorporate the dynamic nature of free-falling cylindrical mines in the modeling of impact burial. The orientation, trajectory and velocity of cylindrical mines, after about 4 meters free-fall in the water column, are very strongly influenced by boundary layer effects causing quite chaotic behavior. The model's convolution of the uncertainty through its nonlinearity is addressed by employing Monte Carlo simulations. Finally a risk analysis based on the probability of encountering an undetectable mine is performed.

Systems, methods and apparatus for modeling, specifying and deploying policies in autonomous and autonomic systems using agent-oriented software engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterritt, Roy (Inventor); Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Penn, Joaquin (Inventor)

2011-01-01

Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, an agent-oriented specification modeled with MaCMAS, is analyzed, flaws in the agent-oriented specification modeled with MaCMAS are corrected, and an implementation is derived from the corrected agent-oriented specification. Described herein are systems, method and apparatus that produce fully (mathematically) tractable development of agent-oriented specification(s) modeled with methodology fragment for analyzing complex multiagent systems (MaCMAS) and policies for autonomic systems from requirements through to code generation. The systems, method and apparatus described herein are illustrated through an example showing how user formulated policies can be translated into a formal mode which can then be converted to code. The requirements-based programming systems, method and apparatus described herein may provide faster, higher quality development and maintenance of autonomic systems based on user formulation of policies.

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.

Representing uncertainty in objective functions: extension to include the influence of serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croke, B. F.

2008-12-01

The role of performance indicators is to give an accurate indication of the fit between a model and the system being modelled. As all measurements have an associated uncertainty (determining the significance that should be given to the measurement), performance indicators should take into account uncertainties in the observed quantities being modelled as well as in the model predictions (due to uncertainties in inputs, model parameters and model structure). In the presence of significant uncertainty in observed and modelled output of a system, failure to adequately account for variations in the uncertainties means that the objective function only gives a measure of how well the model fits the observations, not how well the model fits the system being modelled. Since in most cases, the interest lies in fitting the system response, it is vital that the objective function(s) be designed to account for these uncertainties. Most objective functions (e.g. those based on the sum of squared residuals) assume homoscedastic uncertainties. If model contribution to the variations in residuals can be ignored, then transformations (e.g. Box-Cox) can be used to remove (or at least significantly reduce) heteroscedasticity. An alternative which is more generally applicable is to explicitly represent the uncertainties in the observed and modelled values in the objective function. Previous work on this topic addressed the modifications to standard objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE, chi- squared, coefficient of determination) using the optimal weighted averaging approach. This paper extends this previous work; addressing the issue of serial correlation. A form for an objective function that includes serial correlation will be presented, and the impact on model fit discussed.

The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

Unveiling Inherent Degeneracies in Determining Population-weighted Ensembles of Inter-domain Orientational Distributions Using NMR Residual Dipolar Couplings: Application to RNA Helix Junction Helix Motifs

PubMed Central

Yang, Shan; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M.

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies employ time-averaged experimental data to determine dynamic ensembles of biomolecules. While it is well known that different ensembles can satisfy experimental data to within error, the extent and nature of these degeneracies, and their impact on the accuracy of the ensemble determination remains poorly understood. Here, we use simulations and a recently introduced metric for assessing ensemble similarity to explore degeneracies in determining ensembles using NMR residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) with specific application to A-form helices in RNA. Various target ensembles were constructed representing different domain-domain orientational distributions that are confined to a topologically restricted (<10%) conformational space. Five independent sets of ensemble averaged RDCs were then computed for each target ensemble and a ‘sample and select’ scheme used to identify degenerate ensembles that satisfy RDCs to within experimental uncertainty. We find that ensembles with different ensemble sizes and that can differ significantly from the target ensemble (by as much as ΣΩ ~ 0.4 where ΣΩ varies between 0 and 1 for maximum and minimum ensemble similarity, respectively) can satisfy the ensemble averaged RDCs. These deviations increase with the number of unique conformers and breadth of the target distribution, and result in significant uncertainty in determining conformational entropy (as large as 5 kcal/mol at T = 298 K). Nevertheless, the RDC-degenerate ensembles are biased towards populated regions of the target ensemble, and capture other essential features of the distribution, including the shape. Our results identify ensemble size as a major source of uncertainty in determining ensembles and suggest that NMR interactions such as RDCs and spin relaxation, on their own, do not carry the necessary information needed to determine conformational entropy at a useful level of precision. The framework introduced here provides a general approach for exploring degeneracies in ensemble determination for different types of experimental data. PMID:26131693

All-sky photogrammetry techniques to georeference a cloud field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crispel, Pierre; Roberts, Gregory

2018-01-01

In this study, we present a novel method of identifying and geolocalizing cloud field elements from a portable all-sky camera stereo network based on the ground and oriented towards zenith. The methodology is mainly based on stereophotogrammetry which is a 3-D reconstruction technique based on triangulation from corresponding stereo pixels in rectified images. In cases where clouds are horizontally separated, identifying individual positions is performed with segmentation techniques based on hue filtering and contour detection algorithms. Macroscopic cloud field characteristics such as cloud layer base heights and velocity fields are also deduced. In addition, the methodology is fitted to the context of measurement campaigns which impose simplicity of implementation, auto-calibration, and portability. Camera internal geometry models are achieved a priori in the laboratory and validated to ensure a certain accuracy in the peripheral parts of the all-sky image. Then, stereophotogrammetry with dense 3-D reconstruction is applied with cameras spaced 150 m apart for two validation cases. The first validation case is carried out with cumulus clouds having a cloud base height at 1500 m a.g.l. The second validation case is carried out with two cloud layers: a cumulus fractus layer with a base height at 1000 m a.g.l. and an altocumulus stratiformis layer with a base height of 2300 m a.g.l. Velocity fields at cloud base are computed by tracking image rectangular patterns through successive shots. The height uncertainty is estimated by comparison with a Vaisala CL31 ceilometer located on the site. The uncertainty on the horizontal coordinates and on the velocity field are theoretically quantified by using the experimental uncertainties of the cloud base height and camera orientation. In the first cumulus case, segmentation of the image is performed to identify individuals clouds in the cloud field and determine the horizontal positions of the cloud centers.

Adding temporally localized noise can enhance the contribution of target knowledge on contrast detection.

PubMed

Silvestre, Daphné; Cavanagh, Patrick; Arleo, Angelo; Allard, Rémy

2017-02-01

External noise paradigms are widely used to characterize sensitivity by comparing the effect of a variable on contrast threshold when it is limited by internal versus external noise. A basic assumption of external noise paradigms is that the processing properties are the same in low and high noise. However, recent studies (e.g., Allard & Cavanagh, 2011; Allard & Faubert, 2014b) suggest that this assumption could be violated when using spatiotemporally localized noise (i.e., appearing simultaneously and at the same location as the target) but not when using spatiotemporally extended noise (i.e., continuously displayed, full-screen, dynamic noise). These previous findings may have been specific to the crowding and 0D noise paradigms that were used, so the purpose of the current study is to test if this violation of noise-invariant processing also occurs in a standard contrast detection task in white noise. The rationale of the current study is that local external noise triggers the use of recognition rather than detection and that a recognition process should be more affected by uncertainty about the shape of the target than one involving detection. To investigate the contribution of target knowledge on contrast detection, the effect of orientation uncertainty was evaluated for a contrast detection task in the absence of noise and in the presence of spatiotemporally localized or extended noise. A larger orientation uncertainty effect was observed with temporally localized noise than with temporally extended noise or with no external noise, indicating a change in the nature of the processing for temporally localized noise. We conclude that the use of temporally localized noise in external noise paradigms risks triggering a shift in process, invalidating the noise-invariant processing required for the paradigm. If, instead, temporally extended external noise is used to match the properties of internal noise, no such processing change occurs.

ICYESS 2013: Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauser, F.; Niederdrenk, L.; Schemann, V.; Schmidt, A.; Suesser, D.; Sonntag, S.

2013-12-01

We will report the outcomes and highlights of the Interdisciplinary Conference of Young Earth System Scientists (ICYESS) on Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty in September 2013, Hamburg, Germany. This conference is aimed at early career scientists (Masters to Postdocs) from a large variety of scientific disciplines and backgrounds (natural, social and political sciences) and will enable 3 days of discussions on a variety of uncertainty-related aspects: 1) How do we deal with implicit and explicit uncertainty in our daily scientific work? What is uncertain for us, and for which reasons? 2) How can we communicate these uncertainties to other disciplines? E.g., is uncertainty in cloud parameterization and respectively equilibrium climate sensitivity a concept that is understood equally well in natural and social sciences that deal with Earth System questions? Or vice versa, is, e.g., normative uncertainty as in choosing a discount rate relevant for natural scientists? How can those uncertainties be reconciled? 3) How can science communicate this uncertainty to the public? Is it useful at all? How are the different possible measures of uncertainty understood in different realms of public discourse? Basically, we want to learn from all disciplines that work together in the broad Earth System Science community how to understand and interpret uncertainty - and then transfer this understanding to the problem of how to communicate with the public, or its different layers / agents. ICYESS is structured in a way that participation is only possible via presentation, so every participant will give their own professional input into how the respective disciplines deal with uncertainty. Additionally, a large focus is put onto communication techniques; there are no 'standard presentations' in ICYESS. Keynote lectures by renowned scientists and discussions will lead to a deeper interdisciplinary understanding of what we do not really know, and how to deal with it. Many participants have a fresh view on the scientific questions because they have been scientifically raised in interdisciplinary graduate schools and institutions and bring a mix of professional expertise into the Earth System sciences. The extraordinary conference structure and the focus on young Earth System scientists lead to a unique perspective for ICYESS, and hopefully to insights that are relevant to the broader scientific community. At the AGU fall meeting we would like to present results and questions that will come out of ICYESS and put them into the ongoing broad discussion of communicating climate science uncertainties. More information on ICYESS can be found at icyess.eu

Slanted-edge MTF testing for establishing focus alignment at infinite conjugate of space optical systems with gravity sag effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newswander, T.; Riesland, David W.; Miles, Duane; Reinhart, Lennon

2017-09-01

For space optical systems that image extended scenes such as earth-viewing systems, modulation transfer function (MTF) test data is directly applicable to system optical resolution. For many missions, it is the most direct metric for establishing the best focus of the instrument. Additionally, MTF test products can be combined to predict overall imaging performance. For fixed focus instruments, finding the best focus during ground testing is critical to achieving good imaging performance. The ground testing should account for the full-imaging system, operational parameters, and operational environment. Testing the full-imaging system removes uncertainty caused by breaking configurations and the combination of multiple subassembly test results. For earth viewing, the imaging system needs to be tested at infinite conjugate. Operational environment test conditions should include temperature and vacuum. Optical MTF testing in the presence of operational vibration and gravity release is less straightforward and may not be possible on the ground. Gravity effects are mitigated by testing in multiple orientations. Many space telescope systems are designed and built to have optimum performance in a gravity-free environment. These systems can have imaging performance that is dominated by aberration including astigmatism. This paper discusses how the slanted edge MTF test is applied to determine the best focus of a space optical telescope in ground testing accounting for gravity sag effects. Actual optical system test results and conclusions are presented.

Hybrid supervisory control using recurrent fuzzy neural network for tracking periodic inputs.

PubMed

Lin, F J; Wai, R J; Hong, C M

2001-01-01

A hybrid supervisory control system using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) is proposed to control the mover of a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (PMLSM) servo drive for the tracking of periodic reference inputs. First, the field-oriented mechanism is applied to formulate the dynamic equation of the PMLSM. Then, a hybrid supervisory control system, which combines a supervisory control system and an intelligent control system, is proposed to control the mover of the PMLSM for periodic motion. The supervisory control law is designed based on the uncertainty bounds of the controlled system to stabilize the system states around a predefined bound region. Since the supervisory control law will induce excessive and chattering control effort, the intelligent control system is introduced to smooth and reduce the control effort when the system states are inside the predefined bound region. In the intelligent control system, the RFNN control is the main tracking controller which is used to mimic a idea control law and a compensated control is proposed to compensate the difference between the idea control law and the RFNN control. The RFNN has the merits of fuzzy inference, dynamic mapping and fast convergence speed, In addition, an online parameter training methodology, which is derived using the Lyapunov stability theorem and the gradient descent method, is proposed to increase the learning capability of the RFNN. The proposed hybrid supervisory control system using RFNN can track various periodic reference inputs effectively with robust control performance.

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

Report of the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements: 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archinal, B. A.; Acton, C. H.; A'Hearn, M. F.; Conrad, A.; Consolmagno, G. J.; Duxbury, T.; Hestroffer, D.; Hilton, J. L.; Kirk, R. L.; Klioner, S. A.; McCarthy, D.; Meech, K.; Oberst, J.; Ping, J.; Seidelmann, P. K.; Tholen, D. J.; Thomas, P. C.; Williams, I. P.

2018-03-01

This report continues the practice where the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements revises recommendations regarding those topics for the planets, satellites, minor planets, and comets approximately every 3 years. The Working Group has now become a "functional working group" of the IAU, and its membership is open to anyone interested in participating. We describe the procedure for submitting questions about the recommendations given here or the application of these recommendations for creating a new or updated coordinate system for a given body. Regarding body orientation, the following bodies have been updated: Mercury, based on MESSENGER results; Mars, along with a refined longitude definition; Phobos; Deimos; (1) Ceres; (52) Europa; (243) Ida; (2867) Šteins; Neptune; (134340) Pluto and its satellite Charon; comets 9P/Tempel 1, 19P/Borrelly, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and 103P/Hartley 2, noting that such information is valid only between specific epochs. The special challenges related to mapping 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are also discussed. Approximate expressions for the Earth have been removed in order to avoid confusion, and the low precision series expression for the Moon's orientation has been removed. The previously online only recommended orientation model for (4) Vesta is repeated with an explanation of how it was updated. Regarding body shape, text has been included to explain the expected uses of such information, and the relevance of the cited uncertainty information. The size of the Sun has been updated, and notation added that the size and the ellipsoidal axes for the Earth and Jupiter have been recommended by an IAU Resolution. The distinction of a reference radius for a body (here, the Moon and Titan) is made between cartographic uses, and for orthoprojection and geophysical uses. The recommended radius for Mercury has been updated based on MESSENGER results. The recommended radius for Titan is returned to its previous value. Size information has been updated for 13 other Saturnian satellites and added for Aegaeon. The sizes of Pluto and Charon have been updated. Size information has been updated for (1) Ceres and given for (16) Psyche and (52) Europa. The size of (25143) Itokawa has been corrected. In addition, the discussion of terminology for the poles (hemispheres) of small bodies has been modified and a discussion on cardinal directions added. Although they continue to be used for planets and their satellites, it is assumed that the planetographic and planetocentric coordinate system definitions do not apply to small bodies. However, planetocentric and planetodetic latitudes and longitudes may be used on such bodies, following the right-hand rule. We repeat our previous recommendations that planning and efforts be made to make controlled cartographic products; newly recommend that common formulations should be used for orientation and size; continue to recommend that a community consensus be developed for the orientation models of Jupiter and Saturn; newly recommend that historical summaries of the coordinate systems for given bodies should be developed, and point out that for planets and satellites planetographic systems have generally been historically preferred over planetocentric systems, and that in cases when planetographic coordinates have been widely used in the past, there is no obvious advantage to switching to the use of planetocentric coordinates. The Working Group also requests community input on the question submitting process, posting of updates to the Working Group website, and on whether recommendations should be made regarding exoplanet coordinate systems.

A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hossain, Q; Kimball, J; Mensing, R

A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States (CONUS) is described. The model incorporates both aleatory (random) and epistemic uncertainties associated with quantifying the tornado wind hazard parameters. The temporal occurrences of tornadoes within the continental United States (CONUS) is assumed to be a Poisson process. A spatial distribution of tornado touchdown locations is developed empirically based on the observed historical events within the CONUS. The hazard model is an aerial probability model that takes into consideration the size and orientation of the facility, the length and width of the tornado damage area (idealized as a rectanglemore » and dependent on the tornado intensity scale), wind speed variation within the damage area, tornado intensity classification errors (i.e.,errors in assigning a Fujita intensity scale based on surveyed damage), and the tornado path direction. Epistemic uncertainties in describing the distributions of the aleatory variables are accounted for by using more than one distribution model to describe aleatory variations. The epistemic uncertainties are based on inputs from a panel of experts. A computer program, TORNADO, has been developed incorporating this model; features of this program are also presented.« less

[Significance of motivation balance for a choice of dog's behavior under conditions of environmental uncertainty].

PubMed

Chilingarian, L I; Grigor'ian, G A

2007-01-01

Two experimental models with a choice between two reinforcements were used for assessment of individual typological features of dogs. In the first model dogs were given the choice of homogeneous food reinforcements: between less valuable constantly delivered reinforcement and more valuable reinforcement but delivered with low probabilities. In the second model the dogs had the choice of heterogeneous reinforcements: between performing alimentary and defensive reactions. Under conditions of rise of uncertainty owing to a decrease in probability of getting the valuable food, two dogs continued to prefer the valuable reinforcement, while the third animal gradually shifted its behavior from the choice of a highly valuable but infrequent reward to a less valuable but easily achieved reinforcement. Under condition of choice between the valuable food reinforcement and avoidance of electrocutaneous stimulation, the first two dogs preferred food, whereas the third animal which had been previously oriented to the choice of the low-valuable constant reinforcement, steadily preferred the avoidance behavior. The data obtained are consistent with the hypothesis according to which the individual typological characteristics of animals's (human's) behavior substantially depend on two parameters: extent of environmental uncertainty and subjective features of reinforcement assessment.

Odor-conditioned rheotaxis of the sea lamprey: modeling, analysis and validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, Jongeun; Jean, Soo; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Brant, Cory O.; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

Mechanisms for orienting toward and locating an odor source are sought in both biology and engineering. Chemical ecology studies have demonstrated that adult female sea lamprey show rheotaxis in response to a male pheromone with dichotomous outcomes: sexually mature females locate the source of the pheromone whereas immature females swim by the source and continue moving upstream. Here we introduce a simple switching mechanism modeled after odor-conditioned rheotaxis for the sea lamprey as they search for the source of a pheromone in a one-dimensional riverine environment. In this strategy, the females move upstream only if they detect that the pheromone concentration is higher than a threshold value and drifts down (by turning off control action to save energy) otherwise. In addition, we propose various uncertainty models such as measurement noise, actuator disturbance, and a probabilistic model of a concentration field in turbulent flow. Based on the proposed model with uncertainties, a convergence analysis showed that with this simplistic switching mechanism, the lamprey converges to the source location on average in spite of all such uncertainties. Furthermore, a slightly modified model and its extensive simulation results explain the behaviors of immature female lamprey near the source location.

Report from the Workshop on Coregonine Restoration Science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Bunnell, David B.; David, Solomon R.; Gordon, Roger; Gorsky, Dimitry; Millard, Michael J.; Read, Jennifer; Stein, Roy A.; Vaccaro, Lynn

2017-08-03

SummaryGreat Lakes fishery managers have the opportunity and have expressed interest in reestablishing a native forage base in the Great Lakes consisting of various forms and species within the genus Coregonus. This report summarizes the proceedings of a workshop focused on a subset of the genus, and the term “coregonines” is used to refer to several species of deepwater ciscoes (also known as “chubs”) and the one more pelagic-oriented cisco species (Coregonus artedi, also known as “lake herring”). As the principal conservation agency for the United States Government, the Department of Interior has unique and significant authorities and capacities to support a coregonine reestablishment program in the Great Lakes. To identify and discuss key uncertainties associated with such a program and develop a coordinated approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the principal Department of the Interior bureaus to address Great Lakes fishery issues, held the first of a series of workshops on coregonine science in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on October 11–13, 2016. Workshop objectives were to identify (1) perceived key uncertainties associated with coregonine restoration in the Great Lakes and (2) DOI capacities for addressing these key uncertainties.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

2017-09-07

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, G. E.; Auslander, D. M.

1983-01-01

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

A methodology for computing uncertainty bounds of multivariable systems based on sector stability theory concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.

1992-01-01

The application of a sector-based stability theory approach to the formulation of useful uncertainty descriptions for linear, time-invariant, multivariable systems is explored. A review of basic sector properties and sector-based approach are presented first. The sector-based approach is then applied to several general forms of parameter uncertainty to investigate its advantages and limitations. The results indicate that the sector uncertainty bound can be used effectively to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the frequency response of the design model. Inherent conservatism is a potential limitation of the sector-based approach, especially for highly dependent uncertain parameters. In addition, the representation of the system dynamics can affect the amount of conservatism reflected in the sector bound. Careful application of the model can help to reduce this conservatism, however, and the solution approach has some degrees of freedom that may be further exploited to reduce the conservatism.

Imaging, object detection, and change detection with a polarized multistatic GPR array

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W.

A polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection factoring in the orientation of an object relative to the orientation of transceivers. The polarized detection system may operate on one of several modes of operation based on whether the imaging, object detection, or change detection is performed separately for each transceiver orientation. In combined change mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines changes across polarizations. In combined object mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging and object detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and thenmore » combines objects across polarizations and performs change detection on the result. In combined image mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines images across polarizations and performs object detection followed by change detection on the result.« less

Robust control of nonlinear MAGLEV suspension system with mismatched uncertainties via DOBC approach.

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Zolotas, Argyrios; Chen, Wen-Hua; Michail, Konstantinos; Li, Shihua

2011-07-01

Robust control of a class of uncertain systems that have disturbances and uncertainties not satisfying "matching" condition is investigated in this paper via a disturbance observer based control (DOBC) approach. In the context of this paper, "matched" disturbances/uncertainties stand for the disturbances/uncertainties entering the system through the same channels as control inputs. By properly designing a disturbance compensation gain, a novel composite controller is proposed to counteract the "mismatched" lumped disturbances from the output channels. The proposed method significantly extends the applicability of the DOBC methods. Rigorous stability analysis of the closed-loop system with the proposed method is established under mild assumptions. The proposed method is applied to a nonlinear MAGnetic LEViation (MAGLEV) suspension system. Simulation shows that compared to the widely used integral control method, the proposed method provides significantly improved disturbance rejection and robustness against load variation. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural network L1 adaptive control of MIMO systems with nonlinear uncertainty.

PubMed

Zhen, Hong-tao; Qi, Xiao-hui; Li, Jie; Tian, Qing-min

2014-01-01

An indirect adaptive controller is developed for a class of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) nonlinear systems with unknown uncertainties. This control system is comprised of an L 1 adaptive controller and an auxiliary neural network (NN) compensation controller. The L 1 adaptive controller has guaranteed transient response in addition to stable tracking. In this architecture, a low-pass filter is adopted to guarantee fast adaptive rate without generating high-frequency oscillations in control signals. The auxiliary compensation controller is designed to approximate the unknown nonlinear functions by MIMO RBF neural networks to suppress the influence of uncertainties. NN weights are tuned on-line with no prior training and the project operator ensures the weights bounded. The global stability of the closed-system is derived based on the Lyapunov function. Numerical simulations of an MIMO system coupled with nonlinear uncertainties are used to illustrate the practical potential of our theoretical results.

Defining and Verifying Research Grade Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, W. E.; Shrestha, R. L.; Slatton, C. C.

2004-12-01

The first and primary goal of the National Science Foundation (NSF) supported Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM), operated jointly by the University of Florida and the University of California, Berkeley, is to make "research grade" ALSM data widely available at affordable cost to the national scientific community. Cost aside, researchers need to know what NCALM considers research grade data and how the quality of the data is verified, to be able to determine the likelihood that the data they receive will meet their project specific requirements. Given the current state of the technology it is reasonable to expect a well planned and executed survey to produce surface elevations with uncertainties less than 10 centimeters and horizontal uncertainties of a few decimeters. Various components of the total error are generally associated with the aircraft trajectory, aircraft orientation, or laser vectors. Aircraft trajectory error is dependent largely on the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations, aircraft orientation on Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) observations, and laser vectors on the scanning and ranging instrumentation. In addition to the issue of the precision or accuracy of the coordinates of the surface points, consideration must also be given to the point-to-point spacing and voids in the coverage. The major sources of error produce distinct artifacts in the data set. For example, aircraft trajectory errors tend to change slowly as the satellite constellation geometry varies, producing slopes within swaths and offsets between swaths. Roll, pitch and yaw biases in the IMU observations tend to persist through whole flights, and created distinctive artifacts in the swath overlap areas. Errors in the zero-point and scale of the laser scanner cause the edges of swaths to turn up or down. Range walk errors cause offsets between bright and dark surfaces, causing paint stripes to float above the dark surfaces of roads. The three keys to producing research grade ALSM observations are calibration, calibration, calibration. In this paper we discuss our general calibrations procedures, give examples of project specific calibration procedures, and discuss the use of ground truth data to verify the accuracy of ALSM surface coordinates.

Systems Engineering Workshop 2017 | Wind | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Energy for Wind Systems Today Cost and Value of Wind Power-Implications of Wind Turbine Design, János Aaron Smith, PPI Session II: Uncertainty Impacts on Wind Turbine Design and Performance Mitigation of Wind Turbine Design Load Uncertainties, Anand Natarajan, DTU Wind Energy Uncertainty in the Wind

Sources of uncertainty in annual forest inventory estimates

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2000-01-01

Although design and estimation aspects of annual forest inventories have begun to receive considerable attention within the forestry and natural resources communities, little attention has been devoted to identifying the sources of uncertainty inherent in these systems or to assessing the impact of those uncertainties on the total uncertainties of inventory estimates....

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems. ?? 2011.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application.

PubMed

Hanandeh, Ali El; El-Zein, Abbas

2010-05-01

This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and characterization of a three-dimensional radiochromic film stack dosimeter for megavoltage photon beam dosimetry.

PubMed

McCaw, Travis J; Micka, John A; DeWerd, Larry A

2014-05-01

Three-dimensional (3D) dosimeters are particularly useful for verifying the commissioning of treatment planning and delivery systems, especially with the ever-increasing implementation of complex and conformal radiotherapy techniques such as volumetric modulated arc therapy. However, currently available 3D dosimeters require extensive experience to prepare and analyze, and are subject to large measurement uncertainties. This work aims to provide a more readily implementable 3D dosimeter with the development and characterization of a radiochromic film stack dosimeter for megavoltage photon beam dosimetry. A film stack dosimeter was developed using Gafchromic(®) EBT2 films. The dosimeter consists of 22 films separated by 1 mm-thick spacers. A Virtual Water™ phantom was created that maintains the radial film alignment within a maximum uncertainty of 0.3 mm. The film stack dosimeter was characterized using simulations and measurements of 6 MV fields. The absorbed-dose energy dependence and orientation dependence of the film stack dosimeter were investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. The water equivalence of the dosimeter was determined by comparing percentage-depth-dose (PDD) profiles measured with the film stack dosimeter and simulated using Monte Carlo methods. Film stack dosimeter measurements were verified with thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) microcube measurements. The film stack dosimeter was also used to verify the delivery of an intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) procedure. The absorbed-dose energy response of EBT2 film differs less than 1.5% between the calibration and film stack dosimeter geometries for a 6 MV spectrum. Over a series of beam angles ranging from normal incidence to parallel incidence, the overall variation in the response of the film stack dosimeter is within a range of 2.5%. Relative to the response to a normally incident beam, the film stack dosimeter exhibits a 1% under-response when the beam axis is parallel to the film planes. Measured and simulated PDD profiles agree within a root-mean-square difference of 1.3%. In-field film stack dosimeter and TLD measurements agree within 5%, and measurements in the field penumbra agree within 0.5 mm. Film stack dosimeter and TLD measurements have expanded (k = 2) overall measurement uncertainties of 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively. Film stack dosimeter measurements of an IMRT dose distribution have 98% agreement with the treatment planning system dose calculation, using gamma criteria of 3% and 2 mm. The film stack dosimeter is capable of high-resolution, low-uncertainty 3D dose measurements, and can be readily incorporated into an existing film dosimetry program.

Irreducible Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovenduski, N. S.; Bonan, G. B.

2016-12-01

We quantify and isolate the sources of uncertainty in projections of carbon accumulation by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere over 2006-2100 using output from Earth System Models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We consider three independent sources of uncertainty in our analysis of variance: (1) internal variability, driven by random, internal variations in the climate system, (2) emission scenario, driven by uncertainty in future radiative forcing, and (3) model structure, wherein different models produce different projections given the same emission scenario. Whereas uncertainty in projections of ocean carbon accumulation by 2100 is 100 Pg C and driven primarily by emission scenario, uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon accumulation by 2100 is 50% larger than that of the ocean, and driven primarily by model structure. This structural uncertainty is correlated with emission scenario: the variance associated with model structure is an order of magnitude larger under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) than a mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). In an effort to reduce this structural uncertainty, we apply various model weighting schemes to our analysis of variance in terrestrial carbon accumulation projections. The largest reductions in uncertainty are achieved when giving all the weight to a single model; here the uncertainty is of a similar magnitude to the ocean projections. Such an analysis suggests that this structural uncertainty is irreducible given current terrestrial model development efforts.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

2018-01-01

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; ...

2018-01-03

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Managing uncertainty in collaborative robotics engineering projects: The influence of task structure and peer interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Michelle

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in life, and learning is an activity particularly likely to be fraught with uncertainty. Previous research suggests that students and teachers struggle in their attempts to manage the psychological experience of uncertainty and that students often fail to experience uncertainty when uncertainty may be warranted. Yet, few educational researchers have explicitly and systematically observed what students do, their behaviors and strategies, as they attempt to manage the uncertainty they experience during academic tasks. In this study I investigated how students in one fifth grade class managed uncertainty they experienced while engaged in collaborative robotics engineering projects, focusing particularly on how uncertainty management was influenced by task structure and students' interactions with their peer collaborators. The study was initiated at the beginning of instruction related to robotics engineering and preceded through the completion of several long-term collaborative robotics projects, one of which was a design project. I relied primarily on naturalistic observation of group sessions, semi-structured interviews, and collection of artifacts. My data analysis was inductive and interpretive, using qualitative discourse analysis techniques and methods of grounded theory. Three theoretical frameworks influenced the conception and design of this study: community of practice, distributed cognition, and complex adaptive systems theory. Uncertainty was a pervasive experience for the students collaborating in this instructional context. Students experienced uncertainty related to the project activity and uncertainty related to the social system as they collaborated to fulfill the requirements of their robotics engineering projects. They managed their uncertainty through a diverse set of tactics for reducing, ignoring, maintaining, and increasing uncertainty. Students experienced uncertainty from more different sources and used more and different types of uncertainty management strategies in the less structured task setting than in the more structured task setting. Peer interaction was influential because students relied on supportive social response to enact most of their uncertainty management strategies. When students could not garner socially supportive response from their peers, their options for managing uncertainty were greatly reduced.

Generalization of uncertainty relation for quantum and stochastic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koide, T.; Kodama, T.

2018-06-01

The generalized uncertainty relation applicable to quantum and stochastic systems is derived within the stochastic variational method. This relation not only reproduces the well-known inequality in quantum mechanics but also is applicable to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation, showing that the finite minimum uncertainty between the position and the momentum is not an inherent property of quantum mechanics but a common feature of stochastic systems. We further discuss the possible implication of the present study in discussing the application of the hydrodynamic picture to microscopic systems, like relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

CPLOAS_2 User Manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Helton, Jon C.

2015-05-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high - consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to d eactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configurationmore » that could allow an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). This report describes the Fortran 90 program CPLOAS_2 that implements the following representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time - dependent: (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before f ailure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS can be included in the calculations performed by CPLOAS_2. Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty, CPLOAS_2, Epistemic uncertainty, Probability of loss of assured safety, Strong link, Uncertainty analysis, Weak link« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pennock, Kenneth; Makarov, Yuri V.; Rajagopal, Sankaran

The need for proactive closed-loop integration of uncertainty information into system operations and probability-based controls is widely recognized, but rarely implemented in system operations. Proactive integration for this project means that the information concerning expected uncertainty ranges for net load and balancing requirements, including required balancing capacity, ramping and ramp duration characteristics, will be fed back into the generation commitment and dispatch algorithms to modify their performance so that potential shortages of these characteristics can be prevented. This basic, yet important, premise is the motivating factor for this project. The achieved project goal is to demonstrate the benefit of suchmore » a system. The project quantifies future uncertainties, predicts additional system balancing needs including the prediction intervals for capacity and ramping requirements of future dispatch intervals, evaluates the impacts of uncertainties on transmission including the risk of overloads and voltage problems, and explores opportunities for intra-hour generation adjustments helping to provide more flexibility for system operators. The resulting benefits culminate in more reliable grid operation in the face of increased system uncertainty and variability caused by solar power. The project identifies that solar power does not require special separate penetration level restrictions or penalization for its intermittency. Ultimately, the collective consideration of all sources of intermittency distributed over a wide area unified with the comprehensive evaluation of various elements of balancing process, i.e. capacity, ramping, and energy requirements, help system operators more robustly and effectively balance generation against load and interchange. This project showed that doing so can facilitate more solar and other renewable resources on the grid without compromising reliability and control performance. Efforts during the project included developing and integrating advanced probabilistic solar forecasts, including distributed PV forecasts, into closed –loop decision making processes. Additionally, new uncertainty quantifications methods and tools for the direct integration of uncertainty and variability information into grid operations at the transmission and distribution levels were developed and tested. During Phase 1, project work focused heavily on the design, development and demonstration of a set of processes and tools that could reliably and efficiently incorporate solar power into California’s grid operations. In Phase 2, connectivity between the ramping analysis tools and market applications software were completed, multiple dispatch scenarios demonstrated a successful reduction of overall uncertainty and an analysis to quantify increases in system operator reliability, and the transmission and distribution system uncertainty prediction tool was introduced to system operation engineers in a live webinar. The project met its goals, the experiments prove the advancements to methods and tools, when working together, are beneficial to not only the California Independent System Operator, but the benefits are transferable to other system operators in the United States.« less

INTERCOMPARISON ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE QUANTITY PERSONAL DOSE EQUIVALENT HP(10) IN PHOTON FIELDS. LINEARITY DEPENDENCE, LOWER LIMIT OF DETECTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN MEASUREMENT OF DOSIMETRY SYSTEMS OF INDIVIDUAL MONITORING SERVICES IN GABON AND GHANA.

PubMed

Ondo Meye, P; Schandorf, C; Amoako, J K; Manteaw, P O; Amoatey, E A; Adjei, D N

2017-12-01

An inter-comparison study was conducted to assess the capability of dosimetry systems of individual monitoring services (IMSs) in Gabon and Ghana to measure personal dose equivalent Hp(10) in photon fields. The performance indicators assessed were the lower limit of detection, linearity and uncertainty in measurement. Monthly and quarterly recording levels were proposed with corresponding values of 0.08 and 0.025 mSv, and 0.05 and 0.15 mSv for the TLD and OSL systems, respectively. The linearity dependence of the dosimetry systems was performed following the requirement given in the Standard IEC 62387 of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The results obtained for the two systems were satisfactory. The procedure followed for the uncertainty assessment is the one given in the IEC technical report TR62461. The maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, expressed in terms of Hp(10), for the TL dosimetry system Harshaw 6600, are 44. 35% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 36.33% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. For the OSL dosimetry system microStar, the maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, are 52.17% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 37.43% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. These results are in good agreement with the requirements for accuracy of the International Commission on Radiological protection. When expressing the uncertainties in terms of response, comparison with the IAEA requirements for overall accuracy showed that the uncertainty results were also acceptable. The values of Hp(10) directly measured by the two dosimetry systems showed a significant underestimation for the Harshaw 6600 system, and a slight overestimation for the microStar system. After correction for linearity of the measured doses, the two dosimetry systems gave better and comparable results. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Explicit asymmetric bounds for robust stability of continuous and discrete-time systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Zhiqiang; Antsaklis, Panos J.

1993-01-01

The problem of robust stability in linear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. Explicit stability bounds on uncertain parameters are derived and expressed in terms of linear inequalities for continuous systems, and inequalities with quadratic terms for discrete-times systems. Cases where system parameters are nonlinear functions of an uncertainty are also examined.

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roald, Line; Misra, Sidhant; Krause, Thilo

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty asmore » continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. Lastly, by applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.« less

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

DOE PAGES

Roald, Line; Misra, Sidhant; Krause, Thilo; ...

2016-08-25

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty asmore » continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. Lastly, by applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.« less

Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

2015-08-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature;more » (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

Systematic Evaluation of Stochastic Methods in Power System Scheduling and Dispatch with Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yishen; Zhou, Zhi; Liu, Cong

2016-08-01

As more wind power and other renewable resources are being integrated into the electric power grid, the forecast uncertainty brings operational challenges for the power system operators. In this report, different operational strategies for uncertainty management are presented and evaluated. A comprehensive and consistent simulation framework is developed to analyze the performance of different reserve policies and scheduling techniques under uncertainty in wind power. Numerical simulations are conducted on a modified version of the IEEE 118-bus system with a 20% wind penetration level, comparing deterministic, interval, and stochastic unit commitment strategies. The results show that stochastic unit commitment provides amore » reliable schedule without large increases in operational costs. Moreover, decomposition techniques, such as load shift factor and Benders decomposition, can help in overcoming the computational obstacles to stochastic unit commitment and enable the use of a larger scenario set to represent forecast uncertainty. In contrast, deterministic and interval unit commitment tend to give higher system costs as more reserves are being scheduled to address forecast uncertainty. However, these approaches require a much lower computational effort Choosing a proper lower bound for the forecast uncertainty is important for balancing reliability and system operational cost in deterministic and interval unit commitment. Finally, we find that the introduction of zonal reserve requirements improves reliability, but at the expense of higher operational costs.« less

Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on a Research Agenda for Maintenance and Evolution of Service-Oriented Systems (MESOA 2010)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

service -oriented systems • Software -as-a- Service ( SaaS ) • social network infrastructures • Internet marketing • mobile computing • context awareness...Maintenance and Evolution of Service -Oriented Systems (MESOA 2010), organized by members of the Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute’s...CMU/SEI-2011-SR-008 | 1 1 Workshop Introduction The Software Engineering Institute (SEI) started developing a service -oriented architecture

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Sliding mode fault tolerant control dealing with modeling uncertainties and actuator faults.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Xie, Wenfang; Zhang, Youmin

2012-05-01

In this paper, two sliding mode control algorithms are developed for nonlinear systems with both modeling uncertainties and actuator faults. The first algorithm is developed under an assumption that the uncertainty bounds are known. Different design parameters are utilized to deal with modeling uncertainties and actuator faults, respectively. The second algorithm is an adaptive version of the first one, which is developed to accommodate uncertainties and faults without utilizing exact bounds information. The stability of the overall control systems is proved by using a Lyapunov function. The effectiveness of the developed algorithms have been verified on a nonlinear longitudinal model of Boeing 747-100/200. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased Sensitivity to Mirror Symmetry in Autism

PubMed Central

Perreault, Audrey; Gurnsey, Rick; Dawson, Michelle; Mottron, Laurent; Bertone, Armando

2011-01-01

Can autistic people see the forest for the trees? Ongoing uncertainty about the integrity and role of global processing in autism gives special importance to the question of how autistic individuals group local stimulus attributes into meaningful spatial patterns. We investigated visual grouping in autism by measuring sensitivity to mirror symmetry, a highly-salient perceptual image attribute preceding object recognition. Autistic and non-autistic individuals were asked to detect mirror symmetry oriented along vertical, oblique, and horizontal axes. Both groups performed best when the axis was vertical, but across all randomly-presented axis orientations, autistics were significantly more sensitive to symmetry than non-autistics. We suggest that under some circumstances, autistic individuals can take advantage of parallel access to local and global information. In other words, autistics may sometimes see the forest and the trees, and may therefore extract from noisy environments genuine regularities which elude non-autistic observers. PMID:21559337

A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation.

PubMed

Fabiano, B; Currò, F; Palazzi, E; Pastorino, R

2002-07-01

The risk from dangerous goods transport by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing an original site-oriented framework of general applicability at local level. A realistic evaluation of the frequency must take into account on one side inherent factors (e.g. tunnels, rail bridges, bend radii, slope, characteristics of neighborhood, etc.) on the other side factors correlated to the traffic conditions (e.g. dangerous goods trucks, etc.). Field data were collected on the selected highway, by systematic investigation, providing input data for a database reporting tendencies and intrinsic parameter/site-oriented statistics. The developed technique was applied to a pilot area, considering both the individual risk and societal risk and making reference to flammable and explosive scenarios. In this way, a risk assessment, sensitive to route features and population exposed, is proposed, so that the overall uncertainties in risk analysis can be lowered.

Neural-network hybrid control for antilock braking systems.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Min; Hsu, C F

2003-01-01

The antilock braking systems are designed to maximize wheel traction by preventing the wheels from locking during braking, while also maintaining adequate vehicle steerability; however, the performance is often degraded under harsh road conditions. In this paper, a hybrid control system with a recurrent neural network (RNN) observer is developed for antilock braking systems. This hybrid control system is comprised of an ideal controller and a compensation controller. The ideal controller, containing an RNN uncertainty observer, is the principal controller; and the compensation controller is a compensator for the difference between the system uncertainty and the estimated uncertainty. Since for dynamic response the RNN has capabilities superior to the feedforward NN, it is utilized for the uncertainty observer. The Taylor linearization technique is employed to increase the learning ability of the RNN. In addition, the on-line parameter adaptation laws are derived based on a Lyapunov function, so the stability of the system can be guaranteed. Simulations are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed NN hybrid control system for antilock braking control under various road conditions.

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis Edward

2014-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis Edward

2014-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Interaction of the Local Interstellar Medium with the Heliosphere: Role of the Interior and Exterior Magnetic Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Aaron; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A complete model of the global interaction between the solar wind and the local interstellar medium must take account of interstellar neutral atoms, interstellar ionized gas, solar and galactic magnetic fields, galactic and anomalous cosmic rays. For now, however, in view of the many uncertainties about conditions in the interstellar medium, etc., all models must be regarded as highly idealized and incomplete. In the present review I concentrate on the role of magnetic fields of solar and interstellar origin. The former, the interior field, has negligible influence on the unshocked solar wind; the immediate post-shock solar wind is probably low-beta, so that the interior magnetic field is still unimportant, but this situation changes as the plasma flows through the heliosheath, and a ridge of strong magnetic field may form to separate materials of polar and equatorial origin. The exterior (interstellar) field is likely to play an important role in determining the global morphology of the system outside the termination shock. If the exterior field is strong enough, it can compress the heliosphere (although exterior neutral and/or ionized hydrogen may play the dominant role). Even if the interstellar magnetic field does not provide the dominant pressure, its orientation can substantially affect the configuration of the heliosphere, especially the location and orientation of the heliospheric discontinuities. The configurations can be quite different for the situations in which the field and flow are (a) aligned or (b) transverse. Obliquity of the field produces asymmetry in the geometry of the system; in particular the noses of heliopause and interstellar bow shock are shifted away from the interstellar flow direction, and in opposite directions, due to the asymmetric draping of the magnetic field.

Farmer attitudes and perceptions to the re-use of fertiliser products from resource-oriented sanitation systems - The case of Vellore, South India.

PubMed

Simha, Prithvi; Lalander, Cecilia; Vinnerås, Björn; Ganesapillai, M

2017-03-01

Relatively little research has been conducted to date on farmer attitudes towards the use of fertilisers from resource-oriented sanitation systems. This study employed a psycho-sociological approach to identify factors that encourage, or discourage, negative and positive attitudes to human waste recycling among farmers in southern India. A survey involving face-to-face interviews was performed with 120 randomly sampled farmers, taking into account the following factors: gender, age, religion, caste, type of farming, farm size, annual income and farming history. Variations in variables (χ 2 and ANOVA) were considered statistically significant if p-value was <0.05. When asked whether they thought human wastes could be used as fertiliser, of the farmers who expressed an opinion 59% were positive to re-use of urine and 46% to re-use of human faeces. Farmers in Vellore appeared to display what we term, a 'not-in-my-circle' syndrome, as they would prefer their neighbours to use human urine rather than their friends, family and colleagues. The main factors that motivated farmers to respond positively to re-use of urine were improved soil quality and potential cost savings from reduced use of chemical fertilisers. Fear of crop die-off, fear of being ridiculed and uncertainty over consumer marketplace behaviour were significant factors among farmers with a negative attitude. Furthermore, the survey responses indicated that besides socio-demographic factors, other factors such as 'trust' might have to be taken into consideration when planning and implementing nutrient recycling programmes. Early dialogue, continuous interaction and integration of user stakeholders (producers and consumers) in conceptualisation, design and implementation of nutrient recycling programmes are essential to ensure future success and wider adoption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TSUNAMI Primer: A Primer for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Calculations with SCALE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Mueller, Don; Bowman, Stephen M

2009-01-01

This primer presents examples in the application of the SCALE/TSUNAMI tools to generate k{sub eff} sensitivity data for one- and three-dimensional models using TSUNAMI-1D and -3D and to examine uncertainties in the computed k{sub eff} values due to uncertainties in the cross-section data used in their calculation. The proper use of unit cell data and need for confirming the appropriate selection of input parameters through direct perturbations are described. The uses of sensitivity and uncertainty data to identify and rank potential sources of computational bias in an application system and TSUNAMI tools for assessment of system similarity using sensitivity andmore » uncertainty criteria are demonstrated. Uses of these criteria in trending analyses to assess computational biases, bias uncertainties, and gap analyses are also described. Additionally, an application of the data adjustment tool TSURFER is provided, including identification of specific details of sources of computational bias.« less

Clinical accuracy of ExacTrac intracranial frameless stereotactic system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackerly, T.; Lancaster, C. M.; Geso, M.

2011-09-15

Purpose: In this paper, the authors assess the accuracy of the Brainlab ExacTrac system for frameless intracranial stereotactic treatments in clinical practice. Methods: They recorded couch angle and image fusion results (comprising lateral, longitudinal, and vertical shifts, and rotation corrections about these axes) for 109 stereotactic radiosurgery and 166 stereotactic radiotherapy patient treatments. Frameless stereotactic treatments involve iterative 6D image fusion corrections applied until the results conform to customizable pass criteria, theirs being 0.7 mm and 0.5 deg. for each axis. The planning CT slice thickness was 1.25 mm. It has been reported in the literature that the CT slices'more » thickness impacts the accuracy of localization to bony anatomy. The principle of invariance with respect to patient orientation was used to determine spatial accuracy. Results: The data for radiosurgery comprised 927 image pairs, of which 532 passed (pass ratio of 57.4%). The data for radiotherapy comprised 15983 image pairs, of which 10 050 passed (pass ratio of 62.9%). For stereotactic radiotherapy, the combined uncertainty of ExacTrac calibration, image fusion, and intrafraction motion was (95% confidence interval) 0.290-0.302 and 0.306-0.319 mm in the longitudinal and lateral axes, respectively. The combined uncertainty of image fusion and intrafraction motion in the anterior-posterior coordinates was 0.174-0.182 mm. For stereotactic radiosurgery, the equivalent ranges are 0.323-0.393, 0.337-0.409, and 0.231-0.281 mm. The overall spatial accuracy was 1.24 mm for stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) and 1.35 mm for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Conclusions: The ExacTrac intracranial frameless stereotactic system spatial accuracy is adequate for clinical practice, and with the same pass criteria, SRT is more accurate than SRS. They now use frameless stereotaxy exclusively at their center.« less

Object-Oriented Dynamic Bayesian Network-Templates for Modelling Mechatronic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-04

daimlerchrysler.com Abstract are widespread. For modelling mechanical systems The object-oriented paradigma is a new but proven technol- ADAMS [31 or...hardware (sub-)systems. On the Software side thermal flow or hydraulics, see Figure 1. It also contains a the object-oriented paradigma is by now (at